War Production Board - "War Progress", January-April 1945

WPB "war Progress" Jan-Apr.19 - 1945 The President 1 WAR PROGRESS Confidential War C.F.T Production Board Disclosure Punishable Under Espir nage Act no 11462 See 8(3) and B(D) or (E) DECLASSIFIED Commission Dept. Letter, 11-16-78 by RHP. Date MAR 141973 x4735 x4675 X 178 Battlefronts Write the '45 Program Number 225 January 6, 1945 WAR PROGRESS Prepared in the War Production Board J.A. Krug, Chairman War Progress is a confidential report designed to provide a coordinated and continuing picture of the overall war program for the various war agencies. To this end, it presents, analyzes, and interprets basic statistical and economic information, and from time to time examines the pros and cons of controversial questions. Although War Progress is an official publication of the War Production Board, statements in it are not to be construed as expressing official attitudes of the Board as a whole, or even of individual members. Conclusions, whenever reached, should be considered editorial conclusions. War Progress is prepared by the Reports Division (Joseph A. Livingston, Director). EDITORIAL STAFF Thomas A. Falco, Roy T. Frye (drafting), Winona Hibbard A. R. Hilliard, Morris Katz, Chester L Kieffer, Joseph A. Livingston (editor), Martha Menaker, J.S. Werking (pro- duction). This report contains CONFIDENTIAL information affecting the defense of the United States. See inside back cover for rules of custody. CONFIDENTIAL NUMBER 225 WAR PROGRESS JANUARY 6, 1945 Battlefronts Write the '45 Program Critical items, many for combat operations, 000,000 for communications and electron- represent fourth of rising production ics, and increases which undoubtedly goal. December I program, plus planned will occur in other programs when re- additions, is almost as high as '44 output. quirements are fully spelled out. The 1945 program, with these addi- THE PRODUCTION GOAL for 1945 isnow ex- tions, calls for a production job al- pected to be at least 10% higher than most as large as the $64,000,000,000 estimated two months ago. Monthly es- output for 1944-the biggest production timates of the size of the munitions year. The job ahead, however, is bas- program had been successively reduced ically different, and in many respects throughout most of 1944, and the $56,- far more difficult. 600,000,000 October 1 figure was $9,500,- A year agomunitions were being man- 000,000 below that foreseen at the year's ufactured for D Day-still five months beginning. But events of the autumn and away. Output was devoted largely to winter reversed the trend. The program accumulating a reserve of items which as of December 1 calls for $60,300,000,- it was expected would be needed for the 000 and to this may be added nearly $1,- invasion. And only a comparatively few 000,000,000 for increases planned for items were considered critical. the Maritime program, another $1,000,- Now, the European war has reached a SHIFT IN 1945 MUNITIONS PROGRAM During most of last year, this years schedules were reduced. But between October and December, the 1945 program was increased 7%-and will go higher. 75 75 ? 50 50 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 25- o o Feb I Mor Apr. I May I June I July I Aug. I Sept. I Oct. Nov Dec.1 Jan. I 1944 1945 Note 1945 Program os of doles indicated. WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 2 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS crisis. Battle experience is dictating programs has become more acute than the items which must be produced. The ever. are facilities sufficient now; number of critical programs has multi- about $1,000,000,000 of additional ca- plied until they represent & fourth of pacity needed to meet sharply boosted total munitions production. And many demands for artillery ammunition, tires, of these items must be produced in a sulfuric acid, etc. Similarly, the ma- hurry for immediate combat operations. terials situation has tightened, es- It is no longer & matter of filling pecially in lead, copper, aluminum, pipelines or building up strategic re- steel, and lumber. serves (WP-Nov18'44,pl). A miss in schedule is much more serious than in FALSE HOPES the past. Another factor which makes the 1945 At the beginning of 1944, manpower program difficult is that the American was considered over the hump; although war economy must pull itself out of a many critical areas still existed, the declining phase-almost a slump-caused situation was expected to improve as by overoptimism due to the early success the year advanced. Facilities generally of the invasion. By late summer, peace appeared sufficient except for & few in Europe appeared & strong probability minor additions which were bound to before the end of 1944. Every indication occur. Most materials were in adequate pointed to sharp cuts in munitions pro- supply. All in all, 1944 began on an grams and the early freeing of labor easy note. and materials for civilian production. Some manufacturers began seeking pri- MISSING MANPOWER orities with which to reconvert their Goinginto 1945, manpower is a bigger plants (WP-Dec23'44,pl). Meanwhile, problem than it was 12months ago. Mu- munitions output, which early in 1944 nitions employment has declined through- had been slated to reach a new all-time out 1944 at the rate of 100,000 & month. high last November, was instead 7% be- And when contracts are cut back, not all low the peak of November, 1943. And as of the released workers seek other jobs. continued misses of schedule piled up Many workers, especially women, leave deficits, the war in Europe dragged on, the labor market entirely. Also, the eatinginto into strategic reserves. At the armed forces made a net gain of around same time, the war in the Pacific was 2,000,000 during 1944. Consequently, running ahead of the timetable. the shortage of workers for critical Last year's rise and fall in hopes for an early European victory is clearly traceable in the changing monthly esti- IN THIS ISSUE: mates of the size of the 1945 munitions program. When hopes rose last summer, BATTLEFRONTS WRITE THE '45 PROGRAM 1 the program declined; it dropped 11% WAR BONDS-TURNOVER MAKES THE GOING TOUGHER 6 during the four months following D Day. CIVILIAN PICTURE ON PHOTO FILM 7 Late in the year, when it became evident that the two-front war would continue KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK 10 well into 1945, the program began ris- WAR PROGRESS NOTE 11 ing-ithas already gone up 7% and will SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS go even higher. 12 Between October and November, the CONFIDENTIAL JANUARY 6, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL ... 3 CHANGING PERSPECTIVES Between November and December, 1945 schedules of all major munitions groups except ships were increased, reversing the downward trend in aircraft, guns and fire control. 30 15 Aircraft Ships 25 IO 1 20 5 ? 15 o Feb. I May I Aug. I Oct I Nov I Dec I Jon 1944 1945 10 15 Other Equipment and Supplies ? 5 10 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 0 5 Feb I May 1 Aug. I Oct I Nov I Dec I Jon I 1944 1945 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 15 o Ammunition Feb I May I Aug . Oct II Nov I Dec I Jon I 1944 1945 10 ? IO Combat and Motor Vehicles 5 ? 5 o o Feb I May I Aug. Oct I Nov I Dec. I Jon. I Feb. I May 1 Aug I Oct I Nov I Dec. Jon.1 1944 1945 1944 1945 5 5 Guns and Fire Control Communication and Electronics ? 7 o o Feb I May I Aug.1 Octi Nov Dec.I Jon.1 Feb - May 1 Aug. I Octl Nov.1 Dec.I Jon.I 1944 1945 1944 1945 Note: 1945 schedules os of dates indicated. - PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 4 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS 1945 program was raised $1,300,000,000, 37% of 1945 munitions 8.8 against the and then the December 1 revision brought 26% expected then. Together, the ASF the big jump-$2,400,000,000. Three- and ARCO are now scheduled to account fourths of this latter increase was in for nearly three-fourths of 1945 pro- the Army Service Forces program. The duction. Aircraft Resources Control Office pro- Although the 1945 aircraft program gram rose $500,000,000, and the Navy's calls for fewer planes than in 1944, $200,000,000. The Maritime and War Ship- the dollar value is greater because of ping Administration program declined the greater concentration on heavier, but is due for a sharp rise when the costlier models. Here is how the new requirements for the last half of 1945 program compares with production in the are added. Here is how the new muni- two previous years: tions program compares with that of November 1: Number Value of Planes Program % Change (millions) As of Dec. 1 From Nov. 1 1943 $13,750 85,930 (billions) 1944 18,920 96,500 ASF $22.2 +9% 1945 19,450 77,700 ARCO 21.4 +2 Navy 13.1 +2 A year ago the aircraft program for Maritime & WSA. 2.6 -4 1945 was set at $28,800,000,000. By Other* 1.0 0 November 1 it was down to $19,000,000,- Total munitions $60.3 +4% 000. Attrition rates for many planes Direct foreign purchase and Treasury- were running below expectations and procured lend-lease. there was pressure to anticipate V-E Day cutbacks in order to ease the transi- Army ammunition alone accounts for tion to a lower level of aircraft pro- $1,100,000,000 of the $1,800,000,000 duction. Consequently, 1945 schedules boost in the ASF program and in fact is for Liberators, Thunderbolts, Corsairs, nearly half of the totalmunitions rise. and Hellcats took substantial cutbacks Other increases are: combat and motor (WP-Dec30'44,p8). Now, however, with vehicles, $300,000,000; communications the European war dragging on, planes and electronics, $200,000,000; and guns are wearing out. Likewise, the accel- and fire control, $100,000,000. erated pace of the Pacific war has in- The pastyear's revisions in the 1945 creased Navy plane requirements, and ASF program have been up while those the increased use of fighters as dive of the Aircraft Resources Control Of- bombers has boosted fighter needs. fice have been sharply downward, 80 that by December 1, the ASF had become the TRENDING UP AGAIN larger of the two programs. Back in Consequently, for the first time in 1942, production for the Army Service two years, the trend of program revi- Forces amounted to 42% of total muni- sions is up in aircraft. The most im- tions. This ratio dropped to 38% in portant recent increases are in Super- 1943, and to 32% in 1944. Now, however, fortresses, Liberators, Mustangs, Thun- as a result of a $5,200,000.000 rise derbolts, Corsairs, and Hellcats. On since last January, the ASF represents the other hand, schedules for the SC CONFIDENTIAL JANUARY 6, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL 5 Seahawk and L-4 Cub have been cut back, For example, ground radar is scheduled and the schedules for the PB4Y and PBM-5 to rise 220%. This program dropped Navy patrol bombers were cut to feasi- sharply in 1944 from a peak of $46,000,- ble levels even though the original W-12 000 in March to $5,000,000 in November. schedule was below Navy requirements. The reason: ground radar heretofore has been employed primarily in defense- FEWER LAYOFFS antiaircraft, coastal defense, etc. Although the stepup inaircraft sched- (WP-Apr15'44,p10); now new equipment ules will not lead to any major increases has been developed for gun-laying by above 1944 levels in the use of manpower, searchlight control which makes it an materials, or components, it will mean effective combat weapon. This is an- that the release of resources from air- other example of the constant changes plane production will be smaller than taking place in the radar program. anticipated. For example, instead of the 100,000 workers it was estimated FOURTH-QUARTER PEAK would be released from airframe, engine, Although the first quarter calls for propeller, glider, and subcontract plants a rise of only 10% in small-arms ammu- during the first half of 1945, there nition, output will have to increase will be less than 40,000. Materials 57% to reach the scheduled peak in the will be similarly affected; the first- third quarter. For all ASF artillery quarter Requirements Committee deter- ammunition and mortars, the peak is mination for aluminum, for instance, scheduled in the fourth quarter, when came to 298,000,000 pounds, or 29% be- production must more than double the low the fourth-quarter, 1944, allot- November rate of output. The following ment, but the new revisions increase table shows how much some selected pro- requirements 6% to about 315,000,000 grams have to rise over the November pounds, and ARCO has requested a sup- level to meet average monthly schedules plemental allotment. for the first quarter: The increase in the Navy program is % Increase mainly due to rockets and high-capacity Nov. Required ammunition. As of December 1, monthly Prod. 1st Qtr. '45 schedules for all other major groups, (millions) including ships, which declined in No- Small-arms am. $47 +10% vember from the plateau of the previous Heavy-art. am. 54 +37 six months, are up slightly in December, Other art. am. but beginning in January are now sched- & mortars 142 +20 uled to taper off throughout 1945. On Tanks 110 +5 the other hand, naval ammunition is Heavy-heavy trucks 45 +4 scheduled to increase from the November Airborne radar (ASF) 62 +23 level of $170,000,000 to a monthly aver- Ground radar 5 +220 age of $233,000,000 during the fourth Aircraft 1,378 +11 quarter. Field wire 14 +22 While the production forecast as a Navy am. 170 +8 whole for the first quarter is only 3% above the November rate of output, sharp In these programs lies the reason increases are required in certain items. for the increase in the overall 1945 CONFIDENTIAL 6 ... CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS WAR BONDS-TURNOVER MAKES THE GOING TOUGHER 1. Sales of Series E bonds have 2. But redemptions continue to been tapering off, rise, 2000 2000 2000 2000 Soles REDEMPTIONS vs. SALES 1500 1500 1500 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLION DOLLARS 1500 o 4 6 8 2 las Soles & the Soles o 4 2 6 8 BILLION DOLLARS CON 1000 5 Month 1000 1000 if 2nd - 2nd 1000 Moving Average 1943 (944 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 500 500 500 500 Redemptions o o o o 1941 1942 1943 1944 1941 1942 1943 1944 3., Mounting to more than half of 4. Thus volume of bonds outstand- soles between bond drives. ing gains ground more slowly. 75 Redemptions os % of Sales 6th Wor Logn 75 100 100 Bonds Outstanding-end of month (Ratio Scole) REDEMPTIONS AS % OF SALES 50 5th Wor Loon 50 2nd Wor Loan 3rd Wor Loon 25 REDEMPTIONS AS % OF SALES IO 4th Wor Loon 25 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS IO BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ist Wor Loon - I I o o J J 1941 1942 1943 1944 1941 1942 1943 1944 AND THE SMALLER THE BOND The bigger the turnover: 15% of all Series E sales have been redeemed; $25 bonds, representing 34% of sales, account for 57% of redemptions; $1000 bonds, 19% of soles, 9% of redemptions. SALES REDEMPTIONS May 1941-Dec. 1944 July 1941-Dec 1944 $1000 Bond $1000 Bond $500 Bond 9% 6% 19% $25 Bond 34% $100 Bond 13% $500 Bond 57% $25 Bond 15% 21% 14% $50 Bond $100 Bond $50 Bond $29,800,000,000 $4,600,000,000 WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL JANUARY 6, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL 7 program and the crux of the production suspension of spot authorization (WP- task ahead. Many plants which had planned Dec23'44, and the shift of emphasis to taper output this year must continue to erproduction, reconversion, at the to operate at capacity, and plans based beginning of the new year, appears more on release of manpower, materials, and distant than at any time in the past components must be revised. With the six months. Civilian Picture on Photo Film Though the services receive 91% of their negative types to 100% for 32mm. posi- requests for first quarter, claimants as tive (which is practically all used by a whole take 26% cut. Hitherto com- the military): fortable civilian supply is reduced sharply. Allotments % of Orig. Film Group 1st Qtr. '45 Req. SINCE the war began, photographic film (000 sq. ft.) has done a generally good job of stay- 16mm. negative 7,000 51% ing off the scarcity list. True, ama- Roll 9,000 55 teur shutters haven't been clicking so Cut sheet 13,000 68 often: distribution of roll, cut sheet, 35mm. 67,500 73 and motion-picture film to nonprofes- X-ray (medical sional civilian photographers has been & indus.) 28,900 82 limited to between 50% and 76% of 1941 16mm. positive 4,700 86 output. But the supply of film for Hol- Aero 21,000 87 lywood, the press, medical men, scien- 32mm. positive 7,300 100 tific laboratories, and other profes- Total 158,400 74% sional users has been comfortable- The Army and Navy did best of all despite ceilings on distribution rang- when the first-quarter pie was divided. ing from 75% to 100% of 1941 production. They got all that they asked for in cut Now, however, the war has really sheet, 32mm. positive, X-ray, and roll caught up with photographic film. As film; almost all that they asked for in the new begins, every major type- 16mm. positive and aero film. All told, movie, X-ray, aero, cut sheet, and roll the services received 91% of original -faces the tightest position in its first-quarter requests (chart, page 91. history. Allotments in the first quarter Outside the military, it was a dif- give an idea of the story. Demand from ferent story. With the exception of a the Army, Navy, Foreign Economic Ad- civilian request for 32mm. positive film ministration, and other claimants ran (used in printing motion pictures from to the equivalent of some 214,200,000 either 16mm. or 35mm. negatives), all aquare feet of all film types. But they claimants had to take reductions in received only 158,400,000 square feet, every major film group. or 26% less than originally requested. Some of these reductions were sharp. In 35mm. film-Hollywood's bread and WHAT THEY GOT butter-the home front received 71% of Among individual film groups, the stated requirements in the first quarter: ratio of allotments to initially stated 36,700,000 square feet out of 51,800,000. requirements ranged from 51% for 16mm. Since requirements for all professional CONFIDENTIAL 8 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS users of motion-picture film are based Since Pearl Harbor, the photographic on the 1941 rate of consumption, the film industry has had two major expan- effect of this is to cut them back to sions; the first took place at Eastman 71% of the average quarterly usage in Kodak, Rochester, the other at General that year, the lowest level since re- Aniline's Ansco Division, Binghamton. strictions were placed on film dis- These, together with physical improve- tribution. ments and fuller utilization of facili- Foreign countries got only 6% of what ties, have lifted average quarterly ca- they asked for 16mm. negative types, pacity from 117,000,000 square feet to used in microfilm, sound recording, an estimated 158,400,000 today, or 35%. home-type movies, etc. And although the Office of Operations Vice Chairman (rep- PRODUCTION PATTERNS resenting civilians) requested a modest However, capacity figures in the quantity of aero filmin the first quar- photo-film industry are often more the- ter (60,000 square feet, or one-fourth oretical than real. Within a given of 1% of total estimated output), none plant, production of certain types of was granted. film is interchangeable-but not nec- essarily on a 1-for-1 basis. An ad- MILITARY SHARE ditional 1,000,000 square feet of aero The tight position in photographic film, for example, not obtained simply filmmay be traced largely to increased by cutting out 1,000,000 linear feet requirements from the armed services. of 32mm. positive. It all depends on Back in 1942, average quarterly output the production patternat a given plant. of all types of film came to the equiv- Thus, to get that additional 1,000,- alent of 117,000,000 square feet. Of 000 square feet of aero film, itmight that total, the Army and Navy accounted be necessary to sacrifice 8,700,000 for 20% to 25%, or between 23,400,000 linear feet of 35mm. plus 500,000 square and 29,300,000 square feet per quarter. feet of roll film at Eastman Kodak. Or In the current quarter, military de- to get an extra 600,000 square feet of mand was at least triple the average X-ray film, Ansco might be able to do quarter in 1942, running to almost 87,- it at the expense of 1,000,000 square 000,000 square feet-well over half the feet of cut sheet (used largely by news- industry's estimated capacity of 158,- papers, magazines, commercial photog- 400,000 square feet in the quarter. On raphers, and advertisers). top of that, requests from other claim- The possibilities for such switch- ants also rose. As a result, demand for ing are relatively limited. Although every type of film exceeded the indus- there are ten producers of finished try's productive capacity. film in the United States, they do not When the Requirements Committee got all make & full complement of film. As through, the military's allotment of an indication, three make 35mm.: four, all types of film in the first quarter industrial X-ray; five, roll; and nine, came to the equivalent of 79,100,000 cut sheet. Eastman Kodak is by far the square feet, 50% of estimated output. largest manufacturer (it accounted for Thus, whereas in 1942 the Army and Navy 73% of estimated output in 1943, or took 20 to 25 square feet out of every 558,000,000 square feet). Dupont and 100 produced, now they are slated to Ansco occupy second and third places, take 50 out of every 100. respectively. The remaining companies CONFIDENTIAL JANUARY 6, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL 9 PHOTO FILM FUTURES Though output of film is at on all-time high in the current quarter, it is 26% short of initial demand. 250 250 Demand 200 200 MILLIONS OF SQUARE FEET 150 Production 150 100 100 MILLIONS OF SQUARE FEET 50 50 o o Ist Q 2nd Q 3rd Q 4mg Ist Q 2nd Q 3rd o 4th o 1st Q 2nd Q. 3rd Q 4mQ Ist Q. 2nd Q 3rd Q 4mQ ist Q 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 Quarterly Average As o result, all claimants are cut - with the military coming out best. 1945-Ist Quarter Demand 1945- Ist Quarter Allotment Am Army OVC Navy Novy OVC FEA FEA Conada Conado OW OWI 214,200,000 Sq. Ft. 158,400,000 Sq. Ft. This is the demand by major types: And this is what was allotted: Ist Quarter 1945 Ist Quarter 1945 OVC OVC 35mm Film ON FEA* Novy Army un Novy FEA Medic. and Indust X-Roy Aero Film NN Cut Sheet a Roll Film 32mm Positive Total 16mm Negotive $ ( 6mm Positive 40 30 20 IO o o IO 20 30 MILLIONS OF SQUARE FEET MILLIONS OF SQUARE FEET "includes Conodo WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 10 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS -Gevaert, Standard Brands, Buck X- prints, and the reduction of color pro- Ograph, Haloid, etc.-are relatively ductions (suchas Technicolor). It takes small. about a third more film to process a While the two-front war continues, color movie than it does the more fa- it is likely that the demand for photo- miliar black-and-white product. Color graphic film will exceed productive is pretty much of a "must" for military capacity. And since it takes 18 months training films (as in camouflage in- to build a new plant, the War Produc- struction) and for industrial training tion Board is relying on other measures films (as in teaching welders). But to relieve the tight situation. color films are still being ground out Claimant agencies have just been for purely entertainment purposes. requested to conserve film wherever Meanwhile, production from foreign they can. Also, the Army has been asked plants may help lighten the load on the to establish a central film-control U.S. filmindustry, particularly in the agency in order to budget film for all 35mm. motion-picture type. The French uses and to standardize inventory prac- film industry, for instance, which is tices; among Army issuing depots, a few now operatingat a restricted level be- have maintained film inventories in cause of insufficient coal for power, certain types ranging as high as 120 is expected to be up around capacity in days. another four or six months. That means In line with the request to conserve an annual rate of between 200,000,000 film, further steps are 8. possibility. and 250,000,000 linear feet of 35mm. These include shorter features. fewer film. the volume item in this country KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK Lotest Previous Month Same Week Week Week Ago 1943 1942 1941 War Program-checks poid (millions of dollars) 1,872 1,598 1,680 1,418 385 118 Wor bond soles-E,F (millions of dollars) 510 536 561 297 166 - Money in circulation (millions of dollars) 25,326 25,335 25,107 15,393 11,109 8,733 Wholesale prices (1926=100) All commodities 104.7' 104.5 104.2 101.2 101.2 93.8 Form products 126.7' 125.9 124.4 115.4 Foods 94.3 95.5 105.5 105.8 105.4 107.6 All other 99.3 91.2 99.1' 99.0 99.0 96.0 94.1 95.9 Petroleum (000 borrels) Total U.S. stocks 417,268 418,915 Total East Coast stocks 423,321 426,850 439,926 493,881 68,015 69,493 73,089 East Coast receipts 64,083 52,179 91,396 1,698 1,797 1,718 1,524 1,019 N.A. Bituminous coal production (000 short tons) 1,800 1,668 2,006 1,904 1,757 1,694 Steel operations (% of capacity) 95.8% 92.1% 96.9% 96.2% 96.1% 95.95 Freight cors unlooded for exports, excl. grain" Atlantic Coast ports 2,624 3,277 3,357 963 1,517 N.A. Gulf Coost ports 403 524 495 Pocific Coast ports 271 367 N.A. 1,381 1,667 1,780 723 177 N.A. Department store soles (1935-39=100) 390° 388 364 117 111 87 Preliminary Excludes military-owned stocks E Estimated ** Daily Average N.A. Not Avoilable Unodjusted CONFIDENTIAL JANUARY 8, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL II as well as in France. a trickle of incoming materials for Outside the U.S., France isnormally many months to come even if the necessary the world's second largest integrated shipping were available. producer of film. (Germany outranks Held up by this lack of raw mate- her.) Unlike England, Canada, and Aus- rialsisa wide variety of products for tralia, France manufactures its own which some facilities and labor and film base-starting point in the pro- limited amounts of power are at hand: duction of finished film. textiles, clothing, parachutes, rope and But its output will be a palliative cordage, farm and industrial machinery, at best; what France turns outin a year, hand tools, tires, dry and storage bat- Eastman Kodak alone can canmatch in 90 days. teries, radio equipment, automotive com- War Progress Note ponents (of types that do not require extensive tooling-up), and others. Among WHAT CAN LIBERATED AREAS PRODUCE? these, the products most likely to get THE EXTENT to which manufacturing and into production soon are the ones-like industrial activity can be restored in tires and military clothing-for which the liberated areas of Europe is severe- the armed forces' need is great, for ly limited, for the time being, by the which U.S. and British manpower and fa- shortage of shipping space caused by the cilities are short, and for which no prolongation of all-out war. And yet additional shipping space would be re- the maximum feasible production from quired because the raw materials are no French, Belgian, and Dutch factories is more bulky than the finished products. desirable not only to reduce military In a slightly different category is farm shortages and acute civilian hardships, machinery, the European manufacture of but also to alleviate unemployment and which would actually save shipping space social unrest, which could seriously by reducing the quantity of American- hamper Allied operations. This is one made machinery and American-grown food of the problems under consideration by which will have to be sent to the lib- a group of War Production Board offi- erated populations. cials now in Europe at the Army's invi- tation. NOTHING TO CARRY Whatever production is obtained Furthermore, some plant capacity and in the foreseeable future will be piti- skilled laborare available for the manu- fully small compared to overall needs. facture of a number of necessary products And it will be small compared to the that demand little or no transport of production that available facilities materials. Of this type are radio and and manpower would permit. (Officially X-ray tubes, electro-medical appliances, the French claim that 80% of their plant. ampoules, spectacle lenses, film and capacity is now in usable shape and that photographic equipment, small precision 1,000,000 workers are unemployed.) instruments of many kinds, and certain The limiting factor is raw materials, chemicals, such as resin, turpentine, which are short to a paralyzing degree. soda, chloride of lime, and carbon tetra- Virtually all imports have ceased since chloride. the German retreat in July. And be- It appears that electrical power in cause of war's destruction, enemy dep- limited but useful quantities will be redations, and current Allied needs, available tomost factories that can get European railroads and port facilities materials. Army technicians estimate would not be able to handle more than that French power facilities have been CONFIDENTIAL 12 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS Production-Employment-Disputes-Cost of Living Lotest Preceding 2 Months Some Month Month** Month Ago 1943 1942 1941 1939 PRODUCTION INDEX-INDUSTRIAL (1935-39-100) 233 234 234 247 220 175 126 Total manufacturing 249 250 249 268 236 182 127 Durable 343 346 343 376 319 220 136 Nonduroble 173 173 173 181 168 151 119 Minerals 144 145 145 132 132 135 124 NONAGRIC. EMPLOYMENT-TOTAL (thousands) 38,400 38,414 38,523 39,847 39,952 37,230 31,456 Manufacturing-Total 15,599 15,699 15,839 17,238 16,128 13,821 10,746 Durable 9,157 9,247 9,345 10,412 9,241 7,242 4,812 Nonduroble 6,442 6,452 6,494 6,826 6,887 6,579 5,934 Mining 810 816 826 863 949 1,009 943 Trade 7,289 7,146 6,996 7,245 7,382 7,714 6,837 Government " (Federal, State, and Local) 5,885 5,932 5,946 5,822 5,620 4,613 4,094 Other 8,817 8,821 8,916 8,679 9,873 10,073 8,836 LABOR DISPUTES Number of strikes in progress 425 490 445 348 172 464 317 Workers involved (thousands) 220 225 205 537 55 339 130 Number of strikes beginning during month 375 440 390 325 144 271 178 Workers involved (thousands) 200 220 185 136 52 228 43 Mon-days idle (thousands) 710 690 660 2,863 128 1,397 1,665 COST OF LIVING-ALL (EMS(1935-39=100) 126.5 126.4 126.5 124.2 119.8 110.2 100.1 Foods 136.5 136.4 137.0 137.3 131.1 113.1 96.7 Other than foods 121.3 121.2 121.1 117.1 113.6 108.7 101.8 PRODUCTION OF CLOTHING AND SHOES FOR CIVILIANS (1935-39:100) Clothing and shoes combined 100 100 102 103 102 118 106 Clothing 103 102 107 106 108 124 114 Shoes 87 91 84 93 98 120 104 Production of Clothing and Shoes, October; all other, November. Preliminary. Unodjusted. Revised. Transportation, construction, finance, service and miscelloneous. damaged not more than 10%. Most hydro- armies, and for essential civilian serv- electric stations are in operation, and ices-are far outrunning supply: civil- the French grid system for the trans- ians are having a cold winter. Obsta- mission of power is one of the best in cles to increased production are: (1) the world. Paris is said to be receiv- labor troubles associated with "collab- ing about 50% of its normal requirements. orationist" miners and operators, (2) Further power increase will depend en- lack of supplies-oils, greases, rubber tirely upon an increase in the supply belting, hose, lamps, etc., and (3) the of coal-as will production of gas and shortage of pit props. This last is the many other things. most difficult problem of all because of transportation difficulties between COAL OUTLOOK the forests and the mines, and the Army But prospects for increase of the is making every effort to solve it. Be- coal supply are not bright. In the fore the current German counteroffensive, northern coal-mining regions of France, the Ardennes Forest in elgium was being output was off 90% from normal in Dep- counted on heavily as a good source of tember, 1944, and 70% in October. Re- supply relatively close to the mining quirements-for military railroading, regions. Pit props for Holland have for industries directly serving the previously come from Germany. CONFIDENTIAL War Progress is loaned to you for official use. It contains CONFIDENTIAL information affecting the security of the United States. Revelation of its contents in any manner to unauthorized persons is prohibited by the Espionage Act. OFFICIAL RULES for its CUSTODY (1) Not to permit information from any copy in their custody to become available to anyone except a Government employee under their immediate supervision who will be bound by the restrictions hereby agreed to and who requires access to WAR PROGRESS in connection with his official duties. (2). To keep all copies in a securely locked container when not actually in use, (3) Not to incorporate information from WAR PROGRESS in any record unless the use of such record is restricted as if the record were itself a copy of WAR PROGRESS. (4) To give prior written notice of any change of address. (5) On written request, or before separation from the Govern- ment position which entitles them to receive WAR PRO- GRESS, to return all copies charged to their account. WAR PROGRESS Confid Disclosure Punishable Under Expionage Act 32668 DECLARED THE 10% of S no M 1 MAR is 1973 Economic Data Special Articles É The President 1 WAR PROGRESS C.F. Disclosure Punishable Under Espionage Act War Production Board Materials Face a Tight New Year (D) of (E) x 4735 no. Commoneros Dept. " RHP, Date MAR 14 1973 Number 226 January 13, 1945 WAR PROGRESS Prepared in the War Production Board J.A. Krug, Chairman War Progress is a confidential report designed to provide a coordinated and continuing picture of the overall war program for the various war agencies. To this end, it presents, analyzes, and interprets basic statistical and economic information, and from time to time examines the pros and cons of controversial questions. Although War Progress is an official publication of the War Production Board, statements in it are not to be construed as expressing official attitudes of the Board as a whole, or even of individual members. Conclusions, whenever reached, should be considered editorial conclusions. War Progress is prepared by the Reports Division (Joseph A. Livingston, Director). EDITORIAL STAFF Thomas A. Falco, Roy T. Frye (drafting), Winona Hibbard A. R. Hilliard, Morris Katz, Chester L Kieffer, Joseph A. Livingston (editor), Martha Menaker, J. S. Werking (pro- duction). This report contains CONFIDENTIAL information affecting the defense of the United States. See inside back cover for rules of custody. CONFIDENTIAL NUMBER 226 WAR PROGRESS JANUARY 13, 1945 New Year Threat of Tight Materials Aluminum, copper, steel, lead-easy in 44-may, levels (the peak: 188,000,000 pounds in with lumber, be '45 problems. Shortage October, 1943), had been running ahead will force reallocation of controlled ma- of war requirements for several months; terials, eliminate new civilian uses. manufacturers' inventories and fabrica- tors' pipelines had swelled to un- SHORTAGE of the basic materials of war precedented size. The question became production is just one more threat to whether to stockpile, to cut production, be faced during this belt-tightening or to increase consumption (WP-Jan8'44, New Year season. Aluminum, copper, steel, pl). All three things were done. Pot- lead, lumber-all are expected to give lines were taken out of operation at a trouble in varying degrees. A year ago, rate that cut production of primary all of them except lumber looked easy; aluminum in half by the latter part of aluminum and lead were off the critical the year. Many new uses were authorized: list, copper and steel were about to for the military (furniture, canteens, come off. Problems solved in 1943 are airplane landing mats, etc.), for es- returning to plague us in 1945. This sential home-front products (bus bodies looks like progress in reverse. What and engines, industrial instruments, have we been doing in the meantime? electric transmission lines): and, as From its beginning, 1944 was a year the end of the European war seemed ap- of difficult decisions. Problems pre- proaching, tentative releases were made viously "solved" bobbed up in new as- under the spot plan for new civilian pects. For many materials the gimme- products, chiefly household ware. gimme stage of all-out production had passed. The question, "How much can we PILES OF ALUMINUM get?" gave way to "How much do we want?" But in spite of these supply-demand This new question was hard to answer adjustments, government stockpiles of during a year of violent battle-front primary aluminum continued to increase changes when estimates of the 1945 mu- throughout the year, reaching an unprec- nitions program were changing monthly- edented 500,000,000 pounds-several falling 15% between February and Octo- months' supply at the year-end rate of ber, then turning sharply up. Supply consumption. There were two chief rea- of the major materials has not been flex- sons, both connected with the apparently ible enough to keep pace with these imminent end of the German war. First, shifts. The resulting shortage is now the aircraft program was steadily be- serious enough to force virtual reallo- ing reduced; ARCO, which had taken more cation of CMP materials for the first than 70% of all shipments in the fourth quarter of 1945, to eliminate all new quarter of 1943, took less than half a civilian uses, and, in the case of alu- year later. Second, manufacturers of minum sheet, to affect battle-front plans. aluminum products and fabricators of the various shapes were unloading their Aluminum excessive inventories because of de- ALUMINUM tells the story in sharp out- creasing orders and in preparation for line. A year ago there was too much of expected contract terminations. it. Production, at four times prewar And then in November, with produc- CONFIDENTIAL 2 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS tion of primary aluminum at its lowest tions as to the shapes-sheets, rods, point since 1942 (less than 90,000,000 bars, extrusions, rivets, etc.-inwhich pounds per month), the upturn began. the material was to be ordered by the Extension of the two-front war made it claimants. At that time the stated re- necessary to step up production of planes, quirements of the claimants for sheet landing mats, ammunition, and other were well within the capacity of the items (WP-Jan8'45,p4). First-quarter, mills. But that was October. 1945, allotments proved insufficient: Now ARCO has already placed orders supplemental requests poured in. It for 158,000,000 pounds of sheet-184 now appears that the newyear's require- more than its original estimate of 134,- ments will approach those of 1944, per- 000,000-to December 12 sched- haps exceeding 200,000,000 pounds per ule, and further large supplemental al- month. In spite of the large reserves lotments will be requested for both Army at hand, it is probable that potlines and Navy aircraft. Army has placed or- will be reopened before the middle of ders for 45,000,000 pounds, compared to the year. Getting back the released its original estimate of 31,000,000- manpower on the West Coast (where the the 14.5% increase being the result of electrical power is available) will not new needs for landing mats and ammuni- be easy. The pay is not good, and the tion; and now is presenting a supple- work is one of the most unpleasant of mental request for 6,800,000 more. Even war jobs, because of extreme heat and with Navy and essential civilian orders fluoride and carbon-dioxide fumes. held below original estimates, the or- load resulting from these increases SHEET SHORTAGE -271,000,000 pounds-is 20% above mill But, as is usual when requirements capacit thout the supplemental allot- are suddenly stepped up, the acute and ments requested. (Alcoa has orders now immediate shortage isnot in the overall on its books for 30% more sheet than supply of the metal, but in a particular its mills can produce.) shape: this time in aluminum sheet. CMP procedure for aluminum was simplified ENOUGH MACHINES, BUT when first-quarter allotments weremade Last March the sheet mills could have back in October. It appeared that the handled this load, and machine capacity system of allotting by eight specific is still ample to do the job. But the shapes was overcomplicated in view of 40% decline of shipments during the the easing situation. Allotments were following eightmonths (from 93,300,000 made by weight alone with no restric- pounds in March to below 60,000,000 in November) caused & loss of trained man- power that cannot be soon made up. Nor IN THIS ISSUE: have the fabricators kept on hand any- thing like the large stocks of slabs NEW YEAR THREAT OF TIGHT MATERIALS 1 that would be required to meet the new KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK 6 demand, and a great deal of aluminum SUPERBOMBERS PACE DECEMBER PLANES 7 will be used refilling the pipelines. Every effort is now being made to 1944-GREATEST PLANE PRODUCTION YEAR 10 stepupthe mill capacity through labor STEEL TENDONS OF WAR 11 referrals and newspaper and radio cam- SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS paigns, but additional manpower to meet 12 the first-quarter load cannot be counted CONFIDENTIAL JANUARY 13, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL ... 3 ALUMINUM SHEET SHORTAGE I. Consumption in aircraft plants has 2. Result: Aircraft sheet stocks are at been ahead of shipments for over a year. the lowest level in three years. 250 250 End of Quorter 200 200 MILLIONS OF POUNDS Shipments 150 150 Consumption 100 100 MILLIONS OF POUNDS 50 50 o o IQ 2Q 3Q 4Q 01 2Q 3Q 40 10. 2Q 30 40 IQ 2Q 30 40 OI 20 30 40 01 20 30 40 1942 1943 1944 1942 1943 1944 And for the current quarter, mill capacity is 20% below orders of all claimants. MILL ORDERS MILL CAPACITY Ist Quorter, 1945 Ist Quorter, 1945 COAILS Distributors and Other: Worehouses Novy ARCO Army 270,000,000 Pounds 215,000,000 Pounds WAR PROGRESS upon. Mill order books have been closed ommended that the question of where and are now being studied, program by the unavoidable cuts shall be made be program. Attempts will be made to re- referred to the Joint Chiefs of Staff. schedule orders to get more sheet and Meanwhile, attempts are being made to reallocate those that the mills ob- in the limited time remaining to rein- viously cannot fill. Navy will cut its stitute the system of allotting by eight mill orders 25% under original state- shapes for the second quarter of 1945. ment of requirements. Essential civil- Shortages of virtually all shapes, even ian allocations may be cut far more rivets, are in prospect. drastically, probably by over 50%. But all of these measures put together Copper will not provide the aluminum sheet ca- COPPER repeats the pattern of aluminum, pacity to meet Army and ARCO require- except that in thismetal the U.S. would ments as now stated. It has been rec- have an insurmountable 16% deficit in CONFIDENTIAL 4 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS 1945 were it not for the availability ments to the spot program have been of supplies from British and Canadian greater than the available manpower excess stocks and from Canadian and could possibly make use of. Notwith- African production. Domestic copper standing these freer policies, supply production declined steadily through for the fourth quarter of 1944 exceeded most of 1944, keeping pace with reduced demand by 300,000 tons, reducing the military need. At the year's end the carryover of unfilled orders by nearly mine output was 25% below that of March. 20%. And it was expected that this If Germany had been defeated, the es- favorable trend would continue in the timated 1945 U.S. supply of 1,563,000 first quarter of 1945. Steel allot- tons of primary copper would have cov- ments for the current quarter were held ered all military needs and allowed down by the General Program Order on 1,200,000 tons for civilians-twice as the basis of utilization of manpower much AS previously. Copper looked easy. and facilities (WP-Dec28'44, pl). Steel Now, however, the Army's 1945 ammu- supply was not the prime limi factor. nition programs (WP-Dec 2'44,pl; Dec9'44, p7) are scheduled to consume copper at A DIFFERENT STORY a new high rate for the war. Produc- But when munitions requirements were tion of brass strip must reach levels spelled out for a two-front war, and 30% higher than expected a few months particularly when the shipbuilding pro- ago. With all new civilian consumption gram was revised, the requests for sup- eliminated, U.S. copper supply will still plementary allotments started to roll be 16% below the 1,867,000 tons of pri- in. Additional allocations of 200,000 mary copper required. tons have already beenmade and requests Over the year, imports are expected for at least 670,000 more are now being to make up this deficit, but a 10% jump studied. About half of this additional in first-quarter requirements makes the steel is needed by Maritime. If all immediate situation very tight, andmany requests were granted, the grand total fabricated shapes will give trouble. of first-quarter allotments-16,737,000 Nonmilitary claimants are being asked tons-would exceed estimated supply by to review their programs and relinquish around 15%, and many vital programs such parts of their allotments as do might suffer. not represent absolutely essential pro- Consequently the Requirements Com- duction. No new spot authorization in- mittee is undertaking a general review volving copper will be made, and all 2-1 of first-quarter allotments. The re- preferences are being withdrawn. serve for the spot program will be re- Steel duced by 125,000 tons, and no new Z al- lotments will be issued. Claimants are UNLIKE aluminum and copper, carbon steel being asked to review their programs on has never been in abundant supply. Since an urgency basis and to returnall tick- the difficult third quarter of 1944, ets that do not represent war-essential however, it has definitely eased. For use of steel. They are also being warned the first time in the war, substantial that the situation is likely tobe tighter quantities have been made available for in the second quarter, and that no plans uses not absolutely essential: for ex- for expansion of nonmilitary production pansion and alteration of facilities, can be approved. for tools and equipment not immediately Thus, inall three of the controlled connected with war production. Allot- materials the pattern is alike. All of CONFIDENTIAL JANUARY 13, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL 5 NO RELIEF IN LUMBER Consumption persistently exceeds 2. And the stockpile drops to one new supply, low point after another. 15 15 20 20 End of Quorter Consumption 15 15 10 10 BILLIONS OF BOARD FEET Deficit New Supply 10 10 BILLIONS OF BOARD FEET 5 5 5 5 o o o o 10. 2Q. 3Q. 40 IQ 2Q. 3Q 40 1Q 2Q 3Q 40 10. IQ 2Q 3Q 4Q IQ 2Q 3Q. 4Q IQ. 2Q 30. 4Q. 10. 1942 1943 1944 1945 1942 1943 1944 1945 Est. Est. - PROGRESS them were apparently headed for a peri- stocks have been reduced from 17,000,- od of easier supply and were being made 000,000 board feet then to around 6,- available for civilian uses, but all of 000,000,000 at the present time-most them were hit hard and suddenly by the of this latter being of very inferior new military requirements: aluminum by grades. Last year, to assure the avail- aircraft, copper by ammunition, and ability of lumber for war production steel by ships. needs, Order L-335 was issued establish- ing a purchase authorization system sim- Other Metals ilar to CMP (WP-July22'44,p5). This eased THE FAILURE of the lead supply to meet the situation temporarily by squeezing the needs of the 1945 program and the out the artificial demand created by consequent prospective shortage of ci- multiple placement of orders-a charac- vilian storage batteries have been dis- teristic of lumber distribution prior cussed in an earlier issue of WAR PROG- to full control. RESS (Dec30'44,ppl,4). Other metals Now, however, production has taken outside the CMP group may give trouble & sharp downturn. The manpower problem before all of the new military require- is no easier, and the equipment shortage, ments have been met. especially of tires, has reached a cri- sis. Transport of logs from the woods Lumber to the mills moves 85% on rubber. For UNLIKE the metals, lumber has always six consecutive months the logging and been in tight supply. Since Pearl Har- lumber industries have received less bor, consumption has run steadily ahead than one half of their normal replace- of production, with the result that ment needs for tires. The industry's CONFIDENTIAL 6 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK Some Week Lotest Previous Month Week Week Ago 1944 1943 1942 1941 War Program - checks paid (millions of dollars). 1,507 1,872 2,022 1,499 1,418 385 118 War bond soles-E,F,G (millions of dollars) 214 510 611 272 297 139 72 Money in circulation (millions of dollars) 25,257 25,326 25,163 20,404 15,322 11,062 8,542 Wholesale prices (1926 All commodities 104.6 104.7 104.4 102.9 101.4 94.3 30.2 Form products 125.9 126.7 125.6 121.9 116.1 96.9 71.2 Foods 104.6 105.5 105.7 104.6 104.4 91.9 73.2 All other 99.1 99.1 99.0 97.8 96.2 94.1 84.4 Petroleum (00Obarrels) Total U.S. stocks 417,833 417,268 419,015 425,129 441,887 436,278 470,851' Total East Coast stocks! 64,400 67,667 71,386 62,918 49,931 86,350 86,936 East Coast receipts." 1,742 1,698 1,769 1,485 1,054 1,014 N.A. Bituminous coal production (000 short tons) 1,662 1,813 1,988 1,842 1,860 2,024 1,799 Steel operations (% of capacity) 93.0% 95.8% 96.3% 86.3% 98.2% 96.1% 95.9% Freight cors unloaded for exports,excl.grain Atlontic Coast ports 3,122 2,624 3,312 2,173 1,263 1,431 778 Gulf Coast ports 439 403 578 430 363 390 343 Pocific Coast ports 1,871 1,381 1,810 1,215 1,073 241 110 Department store sales 1935-39=100) 145 123 376 110 117 111 87 Preliminary Excludes military-owned stocks Estimated N.A. Daily Average Not Available Unadjusted tire deficit is now placed at 250,000, 000 is in the better grades of hard of which80% are large sizes, 8.25 inch woods used by the Army and Navy for and over. Since these are the sizes in truck bodies, landing craft, tent pegs short military supply, there is no im- and poles, cots, mosquito bars, etc. mediate prospect of relieving the sit- With the danger threatening that 10% uation. And the practice of "cannibal- to 20% of the certified orders already izing"-taking tires and other parts authorized could not be honored at the from some equipment to keep the rest in mills during the first quarter, a new operation-has reached a point where set of lumber controls was issued Jan- it no longer pays off. uary 5, themost stringent of the entire The effects of the tire shortage be- war. Without written authorization from gan to be felt in September, and it now WPB, uncertified orders can no longer be seems certain that lumber supply for filled (except in tiny backwoods mills the first quarter of 1945 will run 10% accounting for less than 3% of total sup- to 15% below the 7,500,000,000 board ply). Authorizations now in circula- feet originally estimated. Since this tion are no longer good for the purchase estimated production had already been of western pine and the scarce hardwoods. 10% overallotted, there gap between Special certificates are required for demand and supply of around 1,500,000,- these species. 000 board feet. Of this total deficit, Thus lumber joins aluminum, copper, approximately 800,000,000 board feet steel, and lead on the list of materials is in western pine, badly needed for that are no longer available for new the crating ofmunitions, and 150,000,- civilian production or even for many CONFIDENTIAL JANUARY 13, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL 7 nonmilitary uses hitherto considered that the crucial battle has been joined, essential. No one can now say how far military needs will be urgent and im- into the new year these conditions will mediate until the end. Balanced against extend, but it may well be until Germany them, home-front hardships will weigh is on the very threshold of defeat. Now very lightly from here on. Superbombers Pace December Planes And exceed schedule by 3%, though program more powerful F4U-4 model; it will prob- as a whole is 2% behind W-12. Year's ably bring another deficit this month. total of 96,356 planes is 12% above 1943, 3. The shortage of A-26 Invader light and airframe weight increases 47%. bombers at Douglas, Tulsa, was no sur- prise. This plant is now making the AIRCRAFT closed out the year with the change-over to a new cockpit canopy. best showing since May. Superbombers On top of that, however, there was dif- turned in a brilliant performance, ex- ficulty with installation of the Invad- ceeding schedule for the first time in er's lower turret, and wings from Beech six months, and total airframe weight Aircraft had to be worked over. As a was about even with November at 71,604,- result, the 80 Invaders accepted at 000 pounds, only 2% behind the revised Tulsa compared with a schedule of 110. W-12 schedule. Numerically, December 4. As expected, the 10-day inventory output of 6,696 planes (including spe- shutdown at Curtiss, Buffalo, threw the cial-purpose aircraft) missed schedule C-46 Commando transport for a loss; by a like percentage and was a scant 1% output came to 120 planes versus a pro- shy of the preceding month. gram of 150. Buffalo also affected De- As was true last summer, the deficit cember acceptances in another way-there from schedule- was concentrated in a handful of models: 1. At Consolidated Vultee, NewOrle- PLANES NEARER TARGET ans, the eight PBY Catalina patrol bomb- Lost years production came clos- ers accepted compared with a slate of est to meeting first-of-month goals. 24. This plant has had difficulty in 100 100 organizing assembly lines for volume Dec. I Ahead of production and a newmanagement was in- Schedule Schedule 80 80 stalled at the turn of the year. 2. The Corsair fighter (FG, F4U) was another problem plane last month. At to 144 out of a schedule of 205. Center- wing sections from Willys-Overland had AIRFRAME WEIGHT-MILLIONS OF POUNDS 60 60 Goodyear, Akron, output of the FG came First-of-Month Schedule 40 40 to be reworked; also, defective landing- Deficit gear struts snagged the production line. AIRFRAME WEIGHT-MILLIONS OF POUNDS Actual Production Both of these holdups have since been 20 20 corrected. Although 210 F4Us were pro- grammed at Chance Vought, Stratford, only 168 came through. Major factor in o o 1942 1943 1944 the miss was the shift to the new and 1945 - PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 8 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS was a quirk in its schedule. Although Output of B-17 Flying Fortresses and 73 P-40 Warhawks were on the docket for B-24 Liberators was back on the beam December, the Warhawk contract had been last month. With every plant on or ahead completed in November, a month ahead of schedule, acceptances of B-17s to- of the original W-12 timetable (dated taled 306; of B-24s, 469. All told, October 12, 1944). And since plant Fort-Liberator output came to 775 planes schedules are adjusted quarterly, the versus a schedule of 749. appropriate correction had not beenmade. These individual off-schedule per- THE GREATEST YEAR formances are reflected in the month's December ended the greatest plane result by major categories. Patrol year inU.S. history. Total acceptances, bombers missed the mark by 14%; fighters, including special-purpose aircraft, ran 1%; light bombers, 6%; and transports, to 96,356 planes, 12% more than in 1943. 10%. All other groups were either on But more significant, airframe weight or above schedule: of 965,581,000 pounds was upmuch more- Dec. Acceptances 47%-thus underscoring the trend toward as % of bigger and more powerful models (ta- Nov. W-12 ble, page 10). (rev.) For the first time in the history All military planes. 100% 98% of the program, some major categories Army procured 99 101 failed to show an increase over the Navy procured 104 90 preceding year. Patrol bombers were Combat planes. 101 100 12% lower on an airframe-weight basis, Superbombers 122 103 reflecting repeated deficits from sched- Forts & Liberators 89 103 ule in that group. Medium bombers were Patrol bombers 112 86 off 4%; herecutbacks were the big fac- Medium bombers 93 102 tor. In trainers and communications, Light bombers 108 94 the declines were 59% and 11%, respec- Fighters (incl. tively. Now that the air arm has been naval reconn. 105 99 built up, the need for training planes Transports 94 90 has gone down sharply. As for communi- Trainers 76 102 cations craft, military requirements Communications 114 100 have largely been met and 1944 produc- Superbombers set the pace in Decem- tion was chiefly for replacement. ber, with acceptances running to 202 Formostindividual models; 1944 was planes-190 B-29 Superfortresses and the biggest production year by far. Of 12 B-32 Dominators. This compared with the 16,073 Liberators accepted since 164 superbombers in November 163 B-29s, the program began in July, 1940, some one B-32) and topped the revised W-12 9,500, or 59% of the total, came through schedule by six planes. The only miss last year. Out of 8,767 Skytrains and in Superforts was at Boeing, Renton- Skytroopers produced, last year's out- Seattle; 35 came through out of a sched- put alone accounted for 4,900, or 56%; ule of 40. This plant has its hands and so on (chart, page 91. full trying to hire and train enough However, there were exceptions. In labor to meet the sharp stepup called the P-40 Warhawk, the 2,000-odd planes for. At Consolidated Vultee, Ft. Worth, accepted last year wereonly 15% of the the dozen Dominators accepted came within cumulative total. The P-40 was the two planes of hitting the target. only fighter we had in volume production CONFIDENTIAL JANUARY 13, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL 9 ... PEAK IN PLANE PRODUCTION Output of airframe weight in 1944 accounted for nearly half the total since mid-1940; unit output, two-fifths. Here's the picture in selected models: July 1940-Dec. 1941 July 1940-Dec. 1941 1944 1943 42 B-24 Liberator 1942 1943 1944 2212 372 B-17 Flying Fortress 16% 273 C-47 Skytrain C-53 Skytrooper B-25 Billy Mitchell P-47 Thunderbolt A-20 Boston P-38 Lightning B-29 Superfortress P-40 Warhawk F6F Helicat TBM, TBF Avenger F4U, FG, F3A Corsair P-51 Mustang C-46 Commando PBY, PB2B, PBN, OA-10 Catalina P-39 Airocobra TOTAL PLANES SB2C, SBW, SBF TOTAL AIRFRAME WEIGHT Helldiver July 40- July 40 Dec. 4a Dec. 41 C-54 Skymaster GMP sin A-26 Invader 1943 1943 P-63 Kingcobra 253, 000 Planes 2,000,000,000 Pounds I 15 10 5 o o 40 80 120 THOUSANDS OF PLANES AIRFRAME WEIGHT- MILLIONS OF POUNDS - PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 10 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS 1944-GREATEST PLANE PRODUCTION YEAR Total % Above or Acceptances Below 1943 1944 Number Weight (units) All military planes 96,356 +12% +47% Army procured 70,843 +4 +48 Navy procured 25,513 +42 +40 Combat planes 74,141 +37 +50 Superbombers 1.177 +1,179 +1,175 Forts & Liberators 14,871 +58 +57 Patrol bombers 1,840 -21 -12 Medium bombers 5,228 -3 -4 Light bombers 11,892 -2 +14 Fighters (inc. naval reconnaissance) 39,133 +58 +72 Transports 9,854 +41 +105 Trainers 7,578 -62 -59 Communications 3,696 -16 -11 Special purpose 1,087 +119 +199 when the war began, and was used on In 1942 and 1943, the pressure to get every front. The Warhawk's big year planes out of plants and into battle was 1942, when 4,454 (33% of the cumu- was so great that only themost essential lative total) rolled off the assembly tactical improvements were incorporated line at Curtiss, Buffalo. Another case in our fighters, bombers, and trans- in point the P-39 Airacobra, now out ports. In 1944, however, the program of production but formerly manufactured got to the point where the Army and at Bell, Buffalo. This model got into Navy could afford to de-emphasize num- quantity production as early as the bers and concentrate on quality; all middle of 1941. A third is the Douglas tactical improvements became production- A-20 Boston, another plane that went line "musts." out of production last year. The Army Air Forces also developed These planes have been replaced by the policy of making all modifications later models-the Warhawk by the Mustang directly on the assembly line rather and Thunderbolt, the Airacobra by the than dification centers. The change Kingcobra, the Boston by the Invader. tended to cut sharply into acceptances And the later the model, the more im- at first, but it often meant better planes portant was 1944 in the cumulative pro- for the front-and eventually they got duction picture. Thus, the 1,786 King- there even faster (WP-July16'44, p6). cobras accepted last year represented Last year, production came closer to 98% of the total output of this plane; schedules than ever before. First-of- the 711 Invaders, 99%. Percentages are month goals were attained (actually ex- equally striking in other new models, ceeded) in four months and came rea- such as the Superfortress. sonably close in eight (chart, page 71. The year was not only notable for Experience was paying off: workers were quantity of output, butalso for quality. better trained; management had greater CONFIDENTIAL JANUARY 13, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL control over production; and scheduling for trucks, davit ropes, arrester-gear improved. ropes, and deck-lashing ropes fall with- In the final half of 1944, the air- in this critical range. craft program began to trend downward. Until recently the supply-demand po- Now this trend must be reversed (WP- sition of wire rope and strand has been Dec30'44,p8). Moreover, since further extremely critical. Between the third upward revisions are being formulated, quarter of 1943 and the same time last 1945 schedules-especially in the last year the carryover of past-due orders six months-will be higher than indi- for the Army and the Navy had more than cated by the current program. tripled. In September, 1944, past-due orders for all users, at 33,450 net Steel Tendons of War tons, were greater than the entire out- put of the industry for the month. More hough wire rope is still in short supply, the than half were for the Army and Navy. emergency needs are met through se- Greatest single obstacle to the fill- lective production of the critical smaller ing of orders has been the shortage of types. Past-due orders are reduced. skilled manpower-chiefly in rod wire mills, although there is also a shortage WITHOUT WIRE ROPE, quick loading and in the rope and strand departments, and unloading of ships would be impossible, many coremaking plants. The manpower no large vessels could be towed, no har- situation became 80 serious that in bors could be dredged, no oil wells could October of last year 62 manufacturers be drilled, no power shovels could oper- of rope wire, wire rope, foundation ate, fewelevators could run, and there strand, and rope centers were placed on would be no steel suspension bridges. the new National Production Urgency List. Few, if any, manufactured products have This number of plants was exceeded only such diversified uses. It plays & vital by those on the list for forges and role wherever heavy pulling, hauling, foundries and aircraft. lashing, or lifting is required. Furthermore, wire rope has had to And the war has greatly increased compete with communication wire for the demand. Enormous quantities are high-carbon steel, and requirements for needed for towing portable docks, barges, the communication-wire program have also and disabled craft; rigging, funnel and been rising sharply. mast stays on ships; deck lashing; ar- Sisal and jute core used for the rester-gear rope on aircraft carriers; center of wire rope has been another davit rope for life boats; winch cables limiting factor in production. The for trucks, cranes, power shovels, etc.; shortage has been particularly bad for controls for aircraft; loading and un- 1/2-inch and 3/4-inch ropes. Output of loading vast supplies going abroad; and a number of companies has been tempo- for scores of other miscellaneous uses. rarily delayed as a result of this, but Just as communication wires are the no program has been seriously held up. nerves of the Signal Corps (WP-Oct21'44, Since September, two marked improve- p5), wire ropes are the steel tendons ments have been effected in the wire- of the Army, the Navy, and the Air Corps. rope situation. In the first place, Wire rope ranges in diameter from overall deliveries have exceeded new 1/64 inch up to 3 inches. The heaviest orders by nearly 6,500 tons, and con- demand is now for the smaller sizes: sequently by the end of November the 7/16-inch through 3/4-inch. Winch cables carryover, at 24,000 tons, was down 11% CONFIDENTIAL 12 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS Federal Finance-Income Payments-Wage Earners Latest Some Month Preceding 2 Months Month Month Ago 1943 1942 1941 1939 FEDERAL FINANCE (GENERAL FUND) Expenditures-T (millions of dollars) 8,416 7,828 8,024 7,452 6,500 2,542 832 Wor 7,503 7,401 7,479 6,718 5,825 1,850 135 Nonwar 913 427 545 734 675 692 697 Revenues Total 5,416 2,240 2,001 5,736 2,701 1,212 521 Income Taxes 4,347 1,500 1,240 5,040 1,972 767 319 Other revenues 1,069 740 761 696 729 445 202 War bond soles 2,386 1,023 695 853 1,014 529 N.A. E 1,855 807 599 728 726 341 N.A. "F" and G 531 216 96 125 288 188 N.A. Wor "E" bond redemptions 359 376 395 201 48 4 N.A. E 334 354 373 186 his 3 N.A. "F" and "G" G 25 22 22 15 4 1 N.A. Net debt (billions of dollars) 209.9 205.2 200.3 153.6 97.6 54.4 39.5 INCOME PAYMENTS (millions of dollars) Total 13,309 13,702 13,684 12,311 10,784 8,171 5,949 Salories and wages 9,465 9,443 9,281 8,848 7,625 5,572 4,022 Comm., distr. and serv. industries 7,113 7,097 7,018 6,895 6,190 4,812 3,477 Government 2,352 2,346 2,263 1,953 1,435 760 545 Military 1,343 1,342 1,304 1,030 606 142 40 Nonmilitory 1,009 1,004 959 923 829 618 505 Other income payments 3,844 4,259 4,403 3,463 3,159 2,599 1,927 Income payments annual rate (odjusted for seasonal, billions of dollars) 159.8 158.2 156.3 148.5 128.6 99.5 73.6 NUMBER OF WAGE EARNERS (thousands) All manufacturing 12,568 12,659 12,802 14,007 13,267 11,579 8,821 Durable 7,389 7,467 7,572 8,456 7,597 6,072 4,034 Nondurable 5,179 5,192 5,230 5,551 5,670 5,507 4,787 Federal Finance, December; all other, November. Preliminary. t Work relief, direct and other relief, Social Security benefits, dividends and interest, entrepreneurial income. from October, and 28% from September. November. Since a wire rope 3 inches This improved position is due to the in diameter weighs 36 times as much as rescheduling of Army and Navy orders, one only 1/2 inch in diameter, for ex- increased production, and standardization. ample, shipments in tons are no real In the second place, orders for the barometer of results. Thus, although most urgently needed types have been November shipments, at 30,465 tons, were given precedence and thus critical mil- 8% below October, they fell only 2% short itary needs have been more nearly met. of the production goal of 30,968 tons In view of the fact that more than 70% called for inproduction directives and of all wire rope on order is for replace- allocations. ment requirements, it was found that As the situation now stands, produc- many orders which had been placed were tion is being regulated to satisfy emer- not immediately pressing and that deliv- gency demands, but the position will ery could be delayed until future months. remain tight unless output can be in- The Army and Navy madea number of heavy creased. The most urgent need is for cancellations of large-diameter ropes. .025-inch and .056-inch rope wire for This made way for a sharp increase in 1/2-inch and 5/8-inch ropes. The large output of the critical smaller ropes. footage of 1/2-inch winch cables for the The shift in emphasis from heavier heavy-truck program necessitates still to lighter types resulted in a decline further shifts in wire-production pat- in total tonnage of mill shipments in terns to balance requirements. CONFIDENTIAL War Progress is loaned to you for official use. It contains CONFIDENTIAL information affecting the security of the United States. Revelation of its contents in any manner to unauthorized persons is prohibited by the Espionage Act. OFFICIAL RULES for its CUSTODY (1) Not to permit information from any copy in their custody to become available to anyone except a Government employee under their immediate supervision who will be bound by the restrictions hereby agreed to and who requires access to WAR PROGRESS in connection with his official duties. (2) To keep all copies in a securely locked container when not actually in use. (3) Not to incorporate information from WAR PROGRESS in any record unless the use of such record is restricted as if the record were Itself a copy of WAR PROGRESS. (4) To give prior written notice of any change of address. (5) On written request, or before separation from the Govern- ment position which entitles them to receive WAR PRO- GRESS, to return all copies charged to their account. WAR PROGRESS Canjidential Disclosure Punishable Under Espionage Act où (i) Destriction Depth The BAR, - MAR 14 1973 Economic Data Special Articles The President 1 WAR PROGRESS 6.7. Nav Production Board I Disclosure Punishable Under Espionage Act Critical Programs Move Ahead (D) or (E) x4735 E.O. Commerce Dept. By RHP, Date MAR 14 was Number 227 January 20, 1945 WAR PROGRESS Prepared in the War Production Board J.A. Krug, Chairman War Progress is a confidential report designed to provide a coordinated and continuing picture of the overall war program for the various war agencies. To this end, it presents, analyzes, and interprets basic statistical and economic information, and from time to time examines the pros and cons of controversial questions. Although War Progress is an official publication of the War Production Board, statements in it are not to be construed as expressing official attitudes of the Board as a whole, or even of individual members. Conclusions, whenever reached, should be considered editorial conclusions. War Progress is prepared by the Reports Division (Joseph A. Livingston, Director). EDITORIAL STAFF Thomas A, Falco, Roy T. Frye (drafting), Winona Hibbard A. R. Hilliard, Morris Katz, Chester L Kieffer, Joseph A. Livingston (editor), Martha Menaker, J.S. Werking (pro- duction). This report contains CONFIDENTIAL information affecting the defense of the United States. See inside back cover for rules of custody. Pure GA-M-ED (1-05-40 UNITED STATES OF AMERICA No. R WAR PRODUCTION BOARD S- 77396 COURIER SERVICE CONTROL RECORD FROM: TO: STATISTICS DIVISION (DIVISION on OFFICE) The President CONVISION on OFFICE RCS (NAME) (NAME) (ROOM NUMBER) The White Hous BUILDING (ROOM NUMBER) (BUILDING) DESCRIPTION OF DOCUMENT MP 227 f1 3 COPY 3 Addressee's Copy THE SERIAL NUMBER IN THE UPPER RIGHT-HAND CORNER SHOULD BE IDENTICAL TO NUMBER ON SENDER'S RECEIPT are CONFIDENTIAL NUMBER 227 WAR PROGRESS JANUARY 20, 1945 Critical Programs Move Ahead All groups except Novy rockets show increase the pace should have been faster. Here's over November. Aircraft goins 32% field the December record of performance in artillery, 12%; tires, 10% etc. But sharp 14 selected groups: rises colled for are not always met. % Above or Below Nov. Sched. CRITICAL PROGRAMS churned ahead last Dry-cell batteries nil -11% month. The drive to get materials, Airborne radar +1% +3 tools, components, and labor into these Light-beavy trucks-ASF +2 -8 programs is mounting: at the same time, Artillery ammunition +5 +1 public thinking has turned far away Navy HC ammunition +5 -1 from last summer's reconversion pay- Communication wire +6 -2 chology. The results are being written Cotton duck +6 +5 in steady month-to-month gains in vir- Truck & bus tires +10 +7 tually every critical group. December Heavy-heavy trucks-ASF +11 +6 is one more illustration of the trend. Tanks-total +11 -2 Navy high-capacity ammunition came Heavy field artil.-ASF +12 o through with an increase of 5% over Critical aircraft +32 -1 November: truck and bus tires were up Mortars (60mm. &81m.) +61 +1 10%: heavy fiela artillery, 12%. In Navy rockets -6 -14 all critical aircraft, production con- Changes in the critical list last tinued to move into new high ground month were few. Navy 40mm. antiaircraft with an increase of 32%; the Super- guns were dropped. The PBM-5 Mariner fortress ran 17% ahead of the preceding patrol bomber was subtracted from air- month. Among major groups, the only craft, but three models were added-two one, that failed to score over November jet-propelled fighters and one torpedo was Navy rockets-and this was largely bomber. There were also some minor due to temporary factors (page 121. adjustments affecting specialized fire- control equipment and items for the MORE WANTED Quartermaster Corps and the Corps of In relation to first-of-month sched- Engineers. ules, however, December repeated what One of the most notable developments is now an old story: sharp rises called last month was an upturn in munitions for were not always net. Tanks, for employment (chart, page 11). Ever since example, were 2% short; light-heavy November, 1943-when war output and trucks for the Army, 8%. What's more, work rolls hit an all-time peak-work- monthly goals in most of the groups- ers had been separated from was plants particularly cotton duck, tires, and at the rate of about 100,000 & month. communication wire-do not reflect full December reversed the downtrend and requirements. In other words, although chalked up a gain of 50,000. The drive December was another month of progress, to get more manpower for an expanded CONFIDENTIAL 2 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS munitions program is beginning to gain it is slated to rise to more than half momentum. But it must accelerate. by the middle of the year. As against $56,600,000,000 last Octo- ber, thenew proposed munitions program Aircraft for 1945 has been lifted to approximately $64,700,000,000. That's about 2% greater DECEMBER was the best month to date in than estimated output of $63,700,000,000 critical aircraft. Output ran to $303,- in 1944. If this goal is to be met, em- 000,000, or 32% ahead of November (chart, ployment in war plants must return to page 9). And the December 1 schedule the level of last summer. That calls was missed by only 1%. In November, the for anet addition of some 300,000 work- deficit from schedule was 16%. ers, sometime in the second quarter, to For the first time since October, an the current force of 9,100,000. item was dropped from the list, the PBM- 5 Mariner. Production at Martin, Bal- PRODUCTIVITY FACTOR timore, has been on schedule for three This assumes, however, that output successive months and acceptances should per worker will continue to gain at continue to meet the 48 a month called about the same rate as it has in the for. This is still below Navy require- past. If productivity increases faster, ments but it represents capacity at the net requirement of 300,000 is an Martin. The gap in the critical list overstatement; if it doesn't increase left by the Mariner wasmore than filled so fast, the figure is too low. by the addition of three models: the Most of the increase in manpower P-80 Shooting Star, FR Fireball, and from this point will be needed in crit- TBY Seawolf. ical programs. And whereas the propor- The Shooting Star and the Fireball tion of rising programs-mostly critical are jet-propelled fighters for the Army -is now about a third of the total, and Navy, respectively. Production has been lagging, schedules rise sharply, and-since both models are revolution- IN THIS ISSUE: ary-many design problems are to be ex- pected. The TBY is being counted on by CRITICAL PROGRAMS MOVE AHEAD 1 AIRCRAFT 2 the Navy to make up a growing shortage TIRES 4 in torpedo bombers. Like the P-80 and HEAVY TRUCKS 6 the FR, production has been slow in STORAGE BATTERIES 7 getting under way. DRY-CELL BATTERIES 8 ENGINE REPLACEMENT PARTS All critical aircraft showed monthly 8 HEAVY ARTILLERY 10 gains in December, with the exception of MORTARS 11 the PBY Catalina, models failed TANKS 11 to make first-of-month schedules. Most NAVAL ORDNANCE 12 ASF CRITICAL AMMUNITION schedules, inturn, continued to under- 12 COTTON DUCK 13 state military requirements. In fact, WIRE ROPE AND STRAND 14 the favorable overall showing in Decem- COMMUNICATION WIRE 14 ber must be credited chiefly to the B- AIRBORNE RADAR 15 29 and the superbomber engine (R-3350BA) INSECT SCREEN CLOTH 16 WOOL CLOTHING Together, these two items accounted for 16 KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK. 15 some 60% of the dollar value of all critical aircraft. And both were out- CONFIDENTIAL JANUARY 20, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL ... 3 standing last month. Here's the sta- last September. But again it was the tistical record: Dodge plant at Chicago that carried the month-with deliveries of 1,229, it ran % Dec. Above or Below 104 over schedule. Wright, Paterson, Accept. Nov. Sched. continued to lag: output of 650 units B-29 Superfort. 190 +17% was 25 engines short of its goal. En- +4% B-32 Dominator. 12 gineers are trying to increase the rated +1,100 -14 R-3350BA engine 1,879 output of the superbomber engine, now +27 +4 A-26 Invader 170 2,200hp at take-off. That points up the +20 -10 P-47 Thunder- possibility of new production problems. bolt (M & N) Having completed the shift in Novem- 149 +224 +49 C-54 Skymaster. ber to the new cockpit canopy for the 53 +36 o P-80 Shooting A-26 Invader, the Douglas plant at Long Beach was able to beat its December mark Star 5 - -17 PV-2 Harpoon +100 of 78 by 12 planes. But Douglas, Tulsa, 22 -42 TBY Seawolf was deep in the change-over. In addi- 1 o -95 FR Fireball 0 - -100 tion, the plant was having trouble with PBY Catalina 8 -27 -67 installation of the lower turret, and also had to rework wings received from Acceptances of the B-29 Superfortress Beech Aircraft. Result: Tulsa's output topped schedule for the second month in of 80 Invaders-although the same as in a row. However, the December rate must November-missed the target by 30 planes. more than double by July-to 415 planes a month. Three-fourths of this increase JOB AHEAD FOR P-47N is scheduled at Boeing, Renton-Seattle, Thunderbolt design bugs and tire which was the only plant that missed shortages were at least temporarily the mark last month (WP-Jan13'45,p8). overcome in December, and Republic at The Renton-Seattle labor force must ex- Farmingdale came through with 81 P-47Ms pand by 2,000 workers between now and and 68 P-47Ns. The stopgap "M" program the middle of February. The War Man- has now been completed. But output of power Commission is conducting inter- the "N" still has a long way to go in regional recruitment for this plant. a short time-to 250a month by February By virtue of a reduced schedule, BEHIND SCHEDULE Douglas at Chicago was on the beam last All told, 16 Dominators were accepted month wi 37 Skymasters. Over the past last year, only 15% of what was expected few months, interregional recruitment at the beginning of 1944. The B-32 is has expanded the labor force by 550 now at about the same stage that the workers toa total of 16,600 (as of De- B-29 was more thana year ago: extensive cember 29). But recruitment has now service testing is necessary and many been halted until the plant can absorb design changes are in prospect. Pro- the new and inexperienced employees. duction timetables at both Consolidated To build up Chicago's nucleus of skilled Vultee plants assembling this plane- assembly-line workers, arrangements Ft. Worth and San Diego-may have to be have been made to shift some 100 employ- set back several months. ees from Vickers, Montreal. Further Deliveries of R-3350BA engines ex- measures to take Chicago out of the red ceeded schedule for the first time since are still being studied by the AAF. CONFIDENTIAL 4 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS Only six jet-propelled P-80 Shooting new: in-plant controls must be tight- Stars, all of them service-test models, ened and assembly lines manned for fast have been accepted at Lockheed, Burbank. and accurate production. The plant is Cumulative first-of-month schedules shifting from the PBY-5 to the PBY-6, called for 15. Major problem right now which has a new tail and improved radar is the I-40 jet-propulsion engine which equipment. will be assembled at General Electric, Syracuse, and at General Motors' Allison Tires Division, Indianapolis. Design of the I-40 has been temporarily frozen so that PRODUCTION of 1,393,000 truck and bus production can get going. But design tires in December set an all-time record changes will pile up in the meanwhile. and exceeded original forecasts. But Lockheed, Burbank, is now receiving this was far below stated requirements PV-2 Harpoon wings in volume from Good- of 1,733,000, and truck and bus tires year at Litchfield Park, Ariz. Instal- remain highly critical. lation of these wings-and the comple- As an indication of the tough climb tion of planes-is turning out to be & ahead, average output of truck and bus bigger job than originally anticipated. tires must increase 17% over December December acceptances doubled November in the first quarter to meet screened but fell 16 planes behind schedule. requirements. And to meet stated re- However, Lockheed expects to be in the quirements, the increase must run to clear on the Harpoon within another more than 50% (chart, page 6). month or two. Intensive efforts are now under way To date, only two TBYs have been ac- to bring production closer to require- cepted at Consolidated Vultee, Allen- ments. These include the acquisition town, as against a first-of-year sched- of additional equipment, conversion of ule of 129. Flight testing of the Sea- certain passenger-tire facilities to wolf has brought the usual stream of the manufacture of small truck tires, engineering changes and the model has recruitment of more manpower, and the not yet been stabilized for quantity building of new facilities (WP-Dec16'44, production. Although the design may be p6). stabilized in another month or two, the All these will help to narrow the schedule will have to be lowered. gap between demand and supply. In the meantime, steps are being taken to at- FIREBALL DEBUT DELAYED tain the needed supply of tubes, and Ryan Aeronautical, at San Diego, is of components such as tire cord, carbon still working toward its first accept- black, bead wire, etc. ances of the FR Fireball, although sev- Present capacity for high-tenacity eral are now being put through their rayon tire cord is 16,000,000 pounds a paces. The jobat Ryan is twofold: (1) month versus & requirement of 25,000,000 to build up its labor force despite the pounds. However, the Army has agreed tight San Diego labor market, and (2) to accept cotton cord as a substitute to organize its extensive subcontract- for rayon in the smaller truck tires ing program. (A-5 and A-6). This brings requirements On January 1, & new management was down to about 20,000,000 pounds a month, installed at Consolidated Vultee, New which should be covered beginning in Orleans. The task it faces there is not June, when new facilities nowunder con- CONFIDENTIAL JANUARY 20, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL 5 struction come into production. Paren- were to be made up from stocks, these thetically, the substitution will be at would be reduced to about & three-day's the expense of at least 500 tons of supply at the first-quarter rate of natural crude rubber amonth; when cot- production. This would contrast with ton cord is substituted, more natural normal stocks of between 30 and 60 days. crude must be used. Also. it will de- Beginning with the third quarter, new crease the quality of tires, thus tend facilities coming into production should to raise requirements in these groups. lift this component out of the red. A Total output of carbon black (channel series of meetings with technical rep- and furnace black) is expected to aver- resentatives of all tire manufacturers age 78,200,000 pounds a month in the began in Akron last week to explore first quarter, as against a requirement this problem. of 88,800,000 pounds. If the deficit In the past, bead wire presented no PROGRESS ON CRITICAL PROGRAMS In December, only Novy rockets failed to increase over the November level. Mortars, critical aircraft gained fastest. Mortors - 60mm and 81mm Oct: Nov Dec Critical Aircraft All Tanks Navy Rockets +-Dec. Cotton Duck Navy 40mm Antiaircraft Guns Heavy-Heavy Trucks ASF Novy H.C. Ammunition Communication Wire Heavy Field Artillery-over 105mm Light-Heavy Trucks-ASF Truck and Bus Tires Military Dry Cell Batteries Airborne Rodor Artillery Ammunition-ASF o 20 40 60 80 % GAIN OVER SEPTEMBER OUTPUT WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 6 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS TIRES FOR TRUCKS AND BUSSES If first-quarter production comes through as forecast, screened requirements will just about be met; but output will still be 25% below stated requirements. 2500 2500 Stated Requirements 2000 2000 Screened Allotments Requirements & 1500 1500 THOUSANDS OF TIRES 1000 1000 THOUSANDS OF TIRES Forecast Actual 500 500 o o J F M A M J J A S o N D J F M A M J J A 5 o N D 1944 1945 - PROGRESS great problem, so detailed information 1. Late in November, tire and tube was not accumulated; thus current avail- plants reported an overall need for able information is sketchy. However, 7.455 workers (about 80% males). By the Rubber Bureau has been investigating January 6, this requirement had been data bearing on supply and demand. Al- reduced to 4,914. most all of the production of bead wire 2. Referrals have shown a steady in- is confined to two companies and their crease since November, but separations combined capacity is some 600 tons be- have been extremely high-about 50% of low monthly needs of tire manufacturers. new hires. Since operations of these two companies 3. The Army has furloughed 1,492 are below capacity because of insuffi- tire workers, and 90% of these have al- cient manpower, the current deficit is ready reported. It is hoped that the even larger. Some relief is expected Navy will provide an additional 100 to from the use of two patenting (temper- 150 workers. ing) furnaces at Bethlehem Steel's Spar- rows Point plant. As in carbon black, insufficient inventories are a problem. Heavy Trucks Tire and tube manufacturers have not PRODUCTION of heavy-heavy and light-heavy yet completed their estimates of man- Army trucks reached newhighs in Decem- power requirements on the basis of the ber, despite holidays and bad weather. projected new construction program. At 6,185, heavy-heavies were 11% above With respect to existing plants, the November: and at 21,358, light-heavies manpower situation isabout as follows: were 2% ahead. But both categories CONFIDENTIAL JANUARY 20, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL 7 missed first-of-month forecasts, by 8% and 4% respectively. Storage Batteries Shortages of components-engines, STORAGE BATTERIES have been placed on axles, transmissions, winches-were an the critical list because (1) the indi- important factor in the failure to meet cated lead supply is below requirements; forecasts. General Motors fell 15% be- (2) facilities for plate-forming, dry- hind its schedule of 3,646 for 2-ton charging, and containers are insuffi- 6 X 6 dump trucks because St. Paul Hy- cient; and (3) labor is short (WP-Dec draulic couldn't supply enough Gar Wood 30'44,pl). winches; White lost production of 10-ton Lead requirements for all types of 6 X 6 wreckers for the same reason. storage batteries-automotive, submarine, Moreover, a number of companies com- aircraft, industrial, etc.-run to 340,- plained about delays in receiving ship- 000 tons this year (114,000 for the ments of components which were due to services, 226,000 for civilians). But the tight railroad freight situation. based on the current distribution of lead, supply available for batteries TRIPLE TROUBLE will be 85,000 tons below needs. This Reo, also working on the 2-ton 6 X deficit will all come out of the amount 6 dump truck, was 36% behind its sched- required for civilian storage batteries; ule of 1,740. Here, the troubles were however, it may, on appeal, be reduced by varied-labor difficulties, a short- allocations from a "kitty" of about. circuit in power lines, and time out 46,000 tons. for taking inventories. The high scrap loss in engine-block CIVILIAN CUT castings was somewhat reduced last month In terms of units, next year's re- because Ordnance Department specifica- quirements for all types of storage tions were brought down closer to com- batteries are now estimated at 25,000,- mercial standards. Industry represent- 000. Of this total, 5,300,000, or 21%, atives have asked for a further ex- are for the armed services and the re- amination of engineering tolerances as maining 19,700,000 for civilians (practi- set up by the Army to determine whether cally all automotive replacement type). requirements can be lowered even more. Chiefly because of the indicated deficit in the lead supply, civilian output may FEWER BUT TOUGHER come to only 10,000,000 or 11,000,000 The currently approved program for this year. 1945 calls for some 5,200 heavy-heavies To date, the only shortage for mili- per month, the lowest rate since last tary account has been in Army Ordnance September. It is noteworthy that the replacement batteries, used in tanks, production job in these is not being trucks, etc. Although estimated ship- reduced proportionately; it embraces ments of 91,000 batteries in December more of the harder-to-build types (WP- were 18% more than in November, the Dec16'44,p8). However, the Army has schedule of 124,000 was missed by 27%. just requested an increased number of The first-quarter schedule is much higher, heavy-heavies for 1945. Likewise, a calling for an average monthly output rise in light-heavies is in prospect, of 183,000, or 91% above December output. although the present program calls for But even that doesn't measure the only a 2% gain over the December level. full extent of the shortage in Army CONFIDENTIAL 8 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS Ordnance needs. Since April, a deficit higher estimate for the first quarter. of some 375,000 replacement batteries The problem of bringing shipments of has piled up, about four months' output dry-cell batteries into line with mil- at the December rate of shipment. itary requirements is complicated by Furthermore, military demands for the sudden and large increases in the hard-rubber cases have taxed capacity. requirements, bothas to types and quan- Unlikemost civilian storage batteries, tities. Since dry-cells have an aver- which can get along with a plastic-com- age "shelf life" of only a few months, position case, Army-Navy types require it is impracticable to build up large the more durable hard-rubber case. A stocks inadvance tomeet suchincreases. major expansion for these is now under Furthermore, most plants are located way at American Container Corporation, in critical manpower areas. National Rock Island, Ill. Within three months Carbon's St. Louis plant, which began or so, that plant is expected to add operations last month, isnow operating upwards of 800,000 containers annually only 12 of its 24 production lines be- to the military supply. cause its labor force is insufficient. Meanwhile, WPB is trying to convert To meet the labor shortage, several some civilian storage-battery facilities plants recently increased the work week to Army-Navy output. This involves from 48 to 54 hours, and two "feeder" special equipment for such operations plants went on a 22-shift basis. as plate-forming and battery-charging, and for the manufacture of hard-rubber Engine Replacement Parts containers. The possibility of meeting some of the Army requirements by produc- WPB's Office of Engine Parts Control tion in France is also being explored. has been in active operation about two Manufacturers say they will need more months (WP-Decl6'44, pl2). The engine workers to meet increased military or- parts problem being approached piece- ders. What the additional requirement meal, taking the most critical parts is-and whether it is valid-will be one by one. First consideration is be- determined through a plant-by-plant ing given toblocks and heads, friction survey to be conducted by WMC. bearings, and cylinder sleeves. The Automotive, Shipbuilding, and Dry-Cell Batteries Power Divisions have sent out Form 4031 to internal-combustion engine manu- ESTIMATED December shipments of mili- facturers asking foralist of castings tary dry-cell batteries were at the requirements for cylinder heads and cyl- highest level on record-167.000,000 inder blocks, by pattern number and en- units. Nevertheless, the December ob- gine model. This information will be jective was missed by 11%. checked against engine schedules, sum- The production program for the first marized by foundries, and turned over quarter of 1945 calls for an average to the Steel Division within A few weeks. of 248,000,000 cellsper month, 49% more The Steel Division, in turn, will (1) than December's record output. But this is still below requirements, which have check this information against the ca- pacities of the foundries involved: (2) just been tentatively estimated at an average of 283,000,000 per month. The determine the extent to which require- ments can be met: and (3) make recom- Signal Corps is now working on an even mendations as to the transfer of work CONFIDENTIAL JANUARY 20, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL ... 9 POINTING THE PROBLEM IN CRITICAL PROGRAMS Gains called for in these selected items range from 25% in high-capacity ammuni- tion to 3000% in heavy tanks. Critical Aircraft Artillery Ammunition 1000 1000 400 400 800 800 300 300 600 600 200 200 December I January Schedule 400 Schedule 400 100 IOO 200 200 Actual Actuol MILLIONS OF DOLLARS o o JFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASOND MILLIONS OF DOLLARS o o JFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONO 1944 1945 1944 1945 Navy High-Capacity Ammunition Navy Rockets MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 25 120 120 20 20 90 90 15 15 1 December I 60 60 Schedule IO IO December Schedule Actual 30 30 5 5 Actual o o o * P JFMAMJJASONOJFMAMJJASOND JFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASOND 1944 1945 1944 1945 Heavy Tanks-T26 Communication Wire 1000 1000 300 300 800 800 200 200 NUMBER OF TANKS 600 600 December Schedule: 400 400 NUMBER OF TANKS THOUSANDS OF MILES January I Schedule THOUSANDS OF MILES 100 100 200 Actual 200 Actual o o 0 o JFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONO JFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASOND 1944 1945 1944 1945 WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 10 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS among foundries, or the expansion of plants, but local Manpower Requirements foundry facilities. Committees are not always willing to On bearings, the approach is slightly recognize the validity of parts manu- different. Order boards are being ob- facturers' needs. The difficulty here tained from the five major manufacturers: is that a great part of their output Cleveland Graphite, Detroit Aluminum, cannot yet be identified as for "must" Bohn Aluminum, Federal Mogul, and Moraine programs. However, the system of pro- Products. Orders from engine plants at gram identification put into effect which there are WPB plant scheduling a few months ago is constantly being officers will be reconciled with plant improved and this objection should soon requirements. If expansions are needed, be overcome. these will be studied. It is hoped that this analysis can be completed by the Heavy Artillery end of January. Still a third method is being used DECEMBER production of ASF heavy field in tackling cylinder sleeves. The prob- artillery (over 105mm.) came to a record- lem here is that Sealed Power-the major breaking $19,000,000, which was 12% supplier-has been unable to squeeze above November and even with the first- into its production line short runs of of-month schedule. This output included important orders. Ford has agreed to 413 spare cannon and 310 artillery pieces, undertake the reopening of a closed distributed as follows: foundry capable of making these spun 155mm. gun 71 castings long production runs (4,000 155mm. howitzer 146 and up). It is also planning to machine 8-inch gun 8 them. Expectations are that this will 8-inch howitzer 61 release some of Sealed Power's capacity 240mm. howitzer 24 for short runs of the most urgent orders. Spare cannon 413 In addition, expansion of machining facilities at White Machine, Eau Claire, Among individual items, the only Wis., has been approved and some $50,000 deficit from the first-of-month schedule of needed machine tools has already been was in spare cannon for the 155mm. gun; located in idle stocks. output of 154 was seven units short. Pistons may be the next group tackled However, spare cannon as a group actually on an overall basis. Meanwhile, prob- exceeded schedule by one unit. lems in other engine parts are being A gain of only 5% over the December handled on a spot basis. rate of production ($19,000,000) is needed to meet the present first-half ROUTING THE PARTS 1945 program on heavy field artillery. In six engine plants, there are now However, recoil mechanisms may cause scheduling officers with authority to difficulty. Because of the increased divert shipments of parts when necessary rate of artillery fire, these are wear- to meet the most urgent requirements. ing out faster than expected. As a re- These officers are to submit monthly sult, scheduled production of $5,000,- summaries of parts orders and shipments. 000 in 1945 is 150% higher than 1944 Manpower shortages are blamed for output. This means more manpower in most of the engine-parts deficit. WMC producing plants-and maybe more fa- is cooperating to supply labor-starved cilities. CONFIDENTIAL JANUARY 20, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL HELP WANTED IN MUNITIONS INDUSTRIES I. Last month, the employment curve 2. But if currently proposed munitions rose for the first time in a year, schedules are to be met, 12 12 6.0 6.0 Munitions Employment Munitions Production Proposed Schedule 5.5 5.5 MILLIONS OF EMPLOYEES IO IO 8 MILLIONS OF EMPLOYEES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 50 5.0 Actual 45 45 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 8 40 4.0 35 3.5 6 6 30 3.0 FMAMJJASONO 1943 1944 1945 1943 1944 1945 3. Assuming output per worker will in- 4. Employment in wor plants would crease os in the past, have to reach last summer's level. 125 125 12 12 Output per Worker Munitions Employment IOO 100 INDEX-FIRST QUARTER 1944=100 75 75 50 INDEX-FIRST QUARTER 1944 =100 MILLIONS OF EMPLOYEES IO 10 50 8 8 MILLIONS OF EMPLOYEES 25 25 o o 6 6 1943 1944 1945 1943 1944 1945 January I schedules plus proposed increases WAR PROGRESS Mortars tars. That means average monthly out- put must rise 24% over the December rate MORTAR PRODUCTION rose sharply last -from $1,430,000 to $1,770,000. In month. Output of 50mm. and 81mm. mor- February, March, and April, the rate tars totaled $1,430,000, which was 61% must top $2,200,000 monthly, 56% above above November and 1% ahead of the first- December. Practically all of this in- of-month schedule. In terms of units, crease is slated for the 60mm. mortar. output of the 60mm. mortar came to 1,730, or 30 units more than scheduled: the Tanks 81mm. mortar totaled 1,586, seven over the mark. TANK production in December reached a Currently, the 1945 program calls new monthly high for the year. The 2,078 for $21,200,000 of 60mm. and 81mm. mor- tanks produced compared with a schedule CONFIDENTIAL 12 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS of 2,118, or 11% over November (chart, loading from temporary to permanent page 9). facilities. All models either met or exceeded The 2.25-inch aircraft rockets missed December schedules except the light M24, schedule by 40%. A shutdown at the which fell 45 short of the 594 scheduled. Chillicothe, 0., plant of National Fire- This deficit was concentrated at one works, Inc., for approximately five plant, Massey-Harris, Racine. Lack of days, due to heavy snowfall and severe gun mounts and tracks held up deliver- ice conditions, and Christmas week ab- ies. The Army expects some relief on senteeism were the principal reasons. these tight components within a month. The 3.5-inch and 5-inch aircraft rockets There is no immediate prospect that (3.5-inch motor) missed schedule by 20%. tanks will be less critical in 1945. Production was delayed while new fusing In fact, the job ahead may be tougher. and drilling facilities were being put Not only are 20% more tanks scheduled into operation at Naval ammunition depots. than were produced in 1944, but the goal Output of 5-inch high-velocity air- is likely to be raised. Also, the pro- craft rockets exceeded November deliv- portion of heavy tanks to the total eries by 57% but still ran 12% under jumps from less than 1% in 1944 to 31% schedule. The delay in delivery of in 1945: motor tubes to naval ammunition depots 1945 % of Total curtailed loadings. Production of 4.5- Group Sched. 1944 1945 inch beach barrage rockets failed to Heavy 6,446 . 31% meet the reduced schedule by 11%. But Medium 11,489 77% 54 the monthly rate for 1945 is 19% below Light 3,198 23 15 the December output. Total 21,133 100% 100% Loadings of high-capacity ammunition *Less than 1%. (6-inch and up)-$16,300,000-rose 5% over November and were only 1% short of Naval Ordnance schedule. Here again schedules have been adjusted for feasibility and are THE NAVAL 40mm. antiaircraft gun reached well under strategic requirements. The a production level in December suffi- 14-inch and 8-inch loadings were 5% and cient to meet current requirements and 1% below schedule, respectively, while is nolonger critical. But naval rockets the 16-inch and 6-inch loadings were 2% and high-capacity ammunition remain on above forecast. Production of projec- the critical list (chart, page 9). tiles is still the limiting factor in Loading and assembly of rocket am- the high-capacity ammunition program. munition, amounting to $16,000,000 last One of the main reasons is the lack of month, fell 6% below November and missed forgings and machine tools at Crucible schedule by 14%. Production in January Steel: it is doubtful if the situation must double that of December to meet can be corrected before February. schedule, and the schedule is only half of January requirements. Factors af- fecting December deliveries included ASF Critical Ammunition lack of components (both metal parts ASF critical ammunition continued to and powder), unusually severe weather gain in December. At $255,400,000, it which kept workers off the job, and loss was 12% higher than November and topped of production occasioned by transfer of the first-of-month schedule by 1%. CONFIDENTIAL JANUARY 20, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL 13 chine tools. Tool deliveries have been AIMING AT MORE DUCK lagging consistently, chiefly because Though cotton duck output is of the highest level in nearly two years, it must rise for higher to meet requirements. of insufficient components, such as 125 125 chucks, mortars, air cylinders, and castings. Expediters from WPB's Machine Stoted Requirements Tools Division are still following the 100 100 situation on a week-to-week basis and are making special efforts to speed shipments from companies where slippages MILLIONS OF LINEAR YARDS 75 75 Screened Requirements MILLIONS OF LINEAR YARDS from schedule have been greatest. These include J.T. Hepburn, Sundstrand, Morey, Barney LeBlond, Cross, and Cross's sub- 50 50 sidiary companies (Cross-Cottrell, Cross- Forecost Defiance, etc.). 25 25 Cotton Duck Actual OUTPUT of cotton duck and duck sub- o o stitutes is estimated at 55.000,000 10 20 30 8 J F . a M # J A 5 0 N o / F M Mo. Avg 1944 1945 1943 linear yards, 6% above November, making Does - and Dating the biggest month since February, 1943. Among individual groups, performances However, production was 10% short of against schedule varied widely, ranging screened requirements (current require- from a 12% above-schedule showing in ments less backlog). First-quarter 57mm. gun ammunition to a 6% miss in screened requirements run to a record heavy gun ammunition: high of 82,000,000 yards monthly (chart, left), but production is expected to Dec. % of average about 62,000,000 yards a month, Output Sched. indicating a 25% deficit. (millions) The chief choke-point is still man- 57mm. gun $2.8 112% power. Plants classified as "must" by 60mm. & 81mm. mortar 18.9 105 local Production Urgency Committees re- 105mm. gun & khowitzer 66.3 104 portedly need between 4,000 and 6,000 GP bombs 60.8 105 new workers to man idle machinery and 90mm. gun 7.2 103 to build up second- and third-shift Small arms 45.1 98 operations. But recruiting continues Heavy gun (over 105mm.) 54.3 94 difficult, especially because of the Total $255.4 101% relatively low wage level. Last month's deficit from schedule Some relief is expected from 90-day in heavy gun ammunition was largely ac- furloughs for soldiers who formerly counted for by two shells. The 155mm. worked in the industry. Approximately M101 was 14% short of the first-of-month 200 have already been released and 300 schedule (236,000 shells VS. 275,000), more are looked for. During the month, and the 8-inch M106 was 19% short (121,- the Army moved to cut down on absen- 000 vs. 150,000). teeism. Officers were assigned to all These shortages epitomize the dif- importantmills to eliminate the causes ficulty in the program as & whole-ma- as far as possible-shopping diffi- CONFIDENTIAL 14 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS culties, lack of child-care facilities, Steps have been taken in the past general indifference to the job, etc.- month to resolve these problems. At a and to lift morale generally. series of conferences between officials Another problem is the supply of of wire companies and the Wire Mill cotton yarn. During the fourth quarter, Branch of the Copper Division, manpower yarn was diverted from tire-cord to duck requirements and the potential capaci- and duck substitutes. But tire-cord ties of the various plants were deter- requirements have increased 80 sharply mined. As a result, quotas of W-110B that the diversion will probably be and W-130 were established through June halted. As an offset, WPB has taken for each plant, with the understanding steps (under Direction 9 to M-317) to that the manufacturers will be furnished speed up and make more effective the the necessary materials, labor, machin- allocation of varn to essential users. ery, or outside capacity. An AA-1 priority rating has been Wire Rope and Strand granted to provide the necessary equip- ment for increasing production capacity WIRE rope and strand continues in tight of W-110B to 200,000 miles per month, supply, but emergency demands are be- and W-130 to 65,000 miles. This repre- ing met through selective production sents increases over the December rate of the critical smaller types. Past- of production of 45% and 71%, respec- due orders have been substantially re- tively. duced through rescheduling of Army and Because of the tight supply of high- Navy orders, increased production, and carbon steel wire, manufacturers are standardization (WP-Jan13'45,pll). now permitted to make one of the four steel strands of W-110B conductors out Communication Wire of low-carbon galvanized steel wire. However, there is a question as to wheth- OUTPUT of the three types of critical er a sufficient quantity of low-carbon communication wire, at 188,500 miles, galvanized .013-inch wire can be pro- was up 6% over November, but 2% short duced, since the same facilities are of forecast (chart, page 9). The def- used to turn out .0095-inch steel wire icit was in assault wire (W-130) and for W-130. Furthermore, these facili- long-range communication wire (W-143); ties compete with wire for wire rope and field wire (W-110B) output ran ahead tire bead, both of which are in short of schedule: supply. % Change The Steel Division has established Dec. From load directives on the mills for suffi- Prod. cient .013-inch steel wire to meet the Sched. (000 miles) wiremanufacturers' quotas. Any failure W-110B 137.7 +4% on the part of steel mills to meet these W-130 36.4 -15 directives would immediately be reflected W-143 12.4 in lower deliveries of the finished -17 Total 188.5 -2% product (four strands of steel, three of copper) from the copper-wire mills, Deliveries are stilllimited by short- because the latter have no operating ages of manpower, supply of .013-inch inventories and the present schedule galvanized wire, and facilities for doesn't allow for accumulation of steel stranding and testing. wire. CONFIDENTIAL JANUARY 20, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL 15 KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK Lotest Previous Month Some Week Week Week Ago 1944 1943 1942 1941 War Program-checks poid (millions of dollors). 1,513 1,507 1,510 1,701 1,414 453 127 War bond soles-E,F,G (millions of dollors) 155 246 531 309 219 225 . Money in circulation (millions of dollars) 25,209 25,257 25,280 20,408 15,354 11,077 8,542 Wholesole prices (1926 100) All commodities 104.7 104.6 104.5 102.9 101.4 95.0 80.2 Form products 126.3 125.9 125.9 122.1 116.6 96.9 71.0 Foods 104.7 104.6 105.8 104.8 104.8 94.1 73.0 All other 99.2 99.1 99.0 97.9 96.3 94.4 84.4 Petroleum (000borrels) Total U.S. stocks 412,101 417,833 418,915 420,948 440,318 438,291 469,795¹ Total East Coost stocks 62,939 64,400 69,493 60,278 48,609 83,713 86,249 East Coost receipts ** 1,674 1,742 1,797 1,490 1,209 N.A. N.A. Bituminous coal production (000 short tons) N.A. 1,662 1,668 1,842 1,860 2,024 1,799 Steel operations (% of capacity) 93.6% 93.0% 92.15 93.15 97.0% 96.4% 95.15 Freight cors unloaded for exports, excl. grain Atlantic Coost ports 3,323 3,122 3,277 3,051 1,156 1,646 776 Gulf Coost ports 450 439 524 369 370 408 342 Pocific Coast ports 1,867 1,871 1,667 1,292 926 165 110 Department store soles (1935-39=100) 165 145 369 143 146 135 102 Preliminary Estimated **Daily Average 1 Excludes military-owned stocks Not Available Unadjusted Another factor which may limit pro- ule; Navy was 4% below. As an indi- duction in the first quarter is the cation of the overall progress in this shortage of stranding capacity. W-110B program, December deliveries were more and W-130 compete for these facilities. than three times the level of Decem- Stranding machines are being added, but ber, 1944. the number is still insufficient to Despite the overall showing, airborne meet the increased schedules. radar remains critical. Reasons: All types of critical communication 1. First-quarter schedules call for wire are on the Production Urgency List a 10% increase over the December level for labor. The biggest manpower short- (20% for ASF items). Most of this rise age is at the new U.S. Rubber plant at is slated for 16 selected items. At Lowell, Mass., where output of W-143 present, these constitute 13% of all has reached only 20% of planned capac- production; by June they will comprise ity because of insufficient labor. Ap- 60% of the total airborne radar program. proximately 500 workers are needed. 2. Although aggregate deliveriesmay appear satisfactory, individual pieces Airborne Radar of equipment frequently miss theirgoals. In December, this was true of 25% of AIRBORNE RADAR improved further in De- the ASF program. cember. Output of $111,000,000 (pre- 3. Engineering changes are unceas- liminary), was slightly ahead of the ing, as enemy counteraction makes our preceding month. Army airborne radar equipment obsolescent; moreover, im- was 9% above the first-of-month sched- provements in the art of radar are con- CONFIDENTIAL 16 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS stantly being made. Indeed, the trend Production in the fourth quarter of is toward more complex types of equip- 1944 is estimated at 108,000,000 square ment-and increased pressure to get them feet. Thus output must be boosted 25%. off assembly lines and out to battle- Even if this goal is reached, the amount fields. One resulti that orders tend of metal screen cloth available for ci- to be centralized with the larger, bet- vilians will be 60% below consumption ter-equipped companies. in the first half of 1944. 4. Schedules are often below stra- Only small quantities of low-carbon tegic needs because of adjustments for steel and bronze are used inmetal screen feasibility. Schedules for the ASF, cloth, and materials present no problem. for example, are set up with require- Facilities are also ample. The only ments as a basis. but limiting factors difficulty is in obtaining workers. such as labor, facilities, components, and developmental problems are also Wool Clothing taken into consideration. AT THE BEGINNING of 1944, military stocks Insect Screen Cloth of important wool clothing items were in good supply, and many of them were UNTIL recent months, military require- placed on decreasing schedules. But ments were taking about one-fourth of continuation of the war in Europe into all metal insect screen cloth produced the winter months on an ever increasing in this country, and the total output scale has resulted in an unanticipated of screen cloth made from synthetics increase in requisitions. The terrific (Nylon and Saran). Even though produc- wear and tear on clothing under present tion of metal cloth had declined about combat conditions has exceeded all re- 20% from the prewar level, this still placement estimates based on previous left a fairly adequate civilian supply. experience. Increased issue rates have But the increased tempo of the of- all but drained existing stocks. fensive in the Pacific nearly tripled Although the supply of wool fiber is military demand during the closing months sufficient, production of required fab- of 1944 and the first quarter of 1945. rics in a short period of time is dif- Vast quantities of metal cloth are needed ficult to obtain. One of the main dif- to protect troops on tropical islands. ficulties is the reluctance of manufac- After considerable paring, military turers to accept contracts for fabrica- agencies have estimated their first- tion of cloth into military end items. quarter minimum requirements at 92,000,- The Textile Bureau has taken drastic 000 square feet. On the basis of these steps to curtail production for civilian estimates, the Requirements Committee needs. It has assumed control over all has approved the following distribution worsted fabrics and 50% of woolens and of metal insect screen cloth for the has channeled them to military use. first quarter of 1945: Specific directives have been issued lst Qtr. '45 governing manufacture of wool items, (million sq. ft.) and this may alleviate the shortage of Army 62.0 military clothing within the next few Navy 15.0 months-at the expense of civilian supply. ARCO 15.0 The only shortage of facilities is Nonmilitary 42.8 in the manufacture of special cushion Total 134.8 soles for socks. CONFIDENTIAL War Progress is loaned to you for official use. It contains CONFIDENTIAL information affecting the security of the United States. Revelation of its contents in any manner to unauthorized persons is prohibited by the Espionage Act. OFFICIAL RULES for its CUSTODY (1) Not to permit information from any copy in their custody to become available to anyone except a Government employee under their immediate supervision who will be bound by the restrictions hereby agreed to and who requires access to WAR PROGRESS in connection with his official duties. (2) To keep all copies in a securely locked container when not actually in use. (3) Not to incorporate information from WAR PROGRESS in any record unless the use of such record is restricted as if the record were itself a copy of WAR PROGRESS. (4) To give prior written notice of any change of address. (5) On written request, or before separation from the Govern- ment position which entitles them to receive WAR PRO- GRESS, to return all copies charged to their account. WAR PROGRESS Confidencial Disclosure Punishable Under Espionage Act The OR as no Demande Lober, 3) MHP, - MAR 14 1973 Economic Data Special Articles The President I WAR PROGRESS 6.7 War Production Board Disclosure Punishable Under Espionage Act Not One Manpower Problem 1944 Production Roundup x4735 of (E) N.O. Cummeros Letter, By RHP, Date WAR 1 Number 228 January 27, 1945 WAR PROGRESS Prepared in the War Production Board J.A. Krug, Chairman War Progress is a confidential report designed to provide a coordinated and continuing picture of the overall war program for the various war agencies. To this end, it presents, analyzes, and interprets basic statistical and economic information, and from time to time examines the pros and cons of controversial questions. Although War Progress is an official publication of the War Production Board, statements in it are not to be construed as expressing official attitudes of the Board as a whole, or even of individual members. Conclusions, whenever reached, should be considered editorial conclusions. War Progress is prepared by the Reports Division (Joseph A. Livingston, Director). EDITORIAL STAFF Thomas A. Falco, Roy T. Frye (drafting), Winona Hibbard, A. R. Hilliard, Morris Katz, Chester L Kieffer, Joseph A. Livingston (editor), Martha Menaker, J.S. Werking (pro- duction). This report contains CONFIDENTIAL information affecting the defense of the United States. See inside back cover for rules of custody. I'm GA-M-ED NO. (1-88-40 UNITED STATES OF AMERICA R WAR PRODUCTION BOARD S- 77781 COURIER SERVICE CONTROL RECORD FROM: TO: STATISTICS DIVISION The President CONVISION OR OFFICE) (DIVISION OR OFFICE RCS (NAME) (NAMI) The Thite House (ROOM BUILDING (ROOM NUMBER) (BUILDING) DESCRIPTION OF DOCUMENT NP 228 #1 3 COPY a THE SERIAL NUMBER IN THE UPPER RIGHT-HAND CORNER Addressee's Copy SHOULD BE IDENTICAL TO NUMBER ON SENDER'S RECEIPT are CONFIDENTIAL NUMBER 228 WAR PROGRESS JANUARY 27, 1945 Not One Manpower Problem But mony, due to schedule variations, skills and battery factories; out-of-the-way required, plant location. Referral mecho- locations have handicapped explosives nism, employment ceilings adjust flow of and shell-loading plants. A lack of labor, but cannot drive men to wor jobs. skilled labor hurting many programs; a machine shop has more trouble finding THERE IS NOT A manpower problem-there three tool-and-die makers, or a rubber are many manpower problems, according factory 30 tire builders, than an air- to the War Production Foard's December craft plant has in signing up 300 raw report on critical programs. This state- recruits for training. Employment in ment can be verified in almost any plant cotton duck mills and logging camps has suffering from labor shortage. been retarded by low low wages, in foundries An expanding ordnance plant near and dry-cell battery plants by unpleas- Louisville, forinstance, will need 10- ant working conditions, in lead mines and 000 additional workers who must be drawn explosives plants by occupational haz- partly from the tobacco and liquor indus- ards: and any kind of war plant may be tries in the city. But there are not handicapped by poor labor relations or enough housing facilities at the plant by management policies that increase and it is an hour's ride each way. The turnover and reduce efficiency. plant's starting wages do not compare favorably with what the workers have WHAT'S IN A TOTAL? been getting. And the job is obviously Just as we lump all these problems temporary: the workers have not forgotten together and call them "the" manpower last year's sudden wholesale layoffs! in problem, so do we lump together all the ammunition plants. How many manpower employment requirements of the 1,200 problems does this plant have? "must" plants now behind schedule and say they need 175,000 more workers in- NO TWO ALIKE mediately. But the process of addition No two war plants in the country are tends to obscure the real issues. This exactly alike in their labor require- simple-looking total combines labor re- ments and the difficulties encountered quirements of widely varying urgency and in filling them: in schedule variations, validity-adding together on a one-to- type of labor required, nature of the one basis the chemical engineer needed labor markets available, and in all the by a high-octane gasoline plant, the special obstacles that stand in the way loom tender called for by the cotton of getting and holding workers. duck plant that is carrying on nones- Ammunition, radar, rocket, aircraft, sential production concurrently and machine-tool plants, and recently war work, the common laborer said to be shipyards, have suffered from unstable needed by the shipyard that has been schedules-have found it impossible to notoriously wasteful of manpower in the adjust their pay rolls to keep pace with past; and it includes the workers re- the ups and downs of requirements. Lo- quired "to meet schedule" by manufactur- cations in labor-starved industrial ere of parts and components who have no centers have handicapped tank, truck, schedules in the official sense. CONFIDENTIAL 2 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS And the total is deceptive in another work with: plant employment ceilings to way. Stacked up against the national force workers onto the labor market and labor force of 50,000,000, it looks In- the referral mechanism of the U.S. Em- significant-easy to get. ployment Service to direct them intoim Earlier in the war would have been. portant jobs. But employment ceilings Then the great flow of workers into the have been imposed generally only upon munitions industries-5,000,000 during war plants and the other essential ac- the first two years after Pearl Harbor- tivitles that are in direct contact with filled all the empty slots. Now, how- the committees. There has existed nei- ever, there is no such flow; if the ther the clear legal authority nor the slots are to be filled, it must be by large operating staffs that would have specific, on-the-spot action-action been required to impose them upon indus- which finds the worker, clears away the try asa whole. The recently initiated obstacles, and puts him in the place "forced release" system for pulling work- where he is needed. Quick solution of ers out of nonessential activities has the thousands of manpower problems in- not yetmet the test of actual operation. volved in this job depends upon two con- ditions. First, the government agencies WHAT CEILINGS HAVE DONE doing the job must be located on the Thus, while ceilings have been indis- scene of action and composed of men who pensable in adjusting the distribution understand local conditions. Second, of the labor force already available for they musthave must the authority to act, ac- war production, they have done little to curately and decisively. increase it. They have done much to com- Only the first of these conditions has pel better utilization of labor in war thus far been met. During the past year plants; they have done little to prevent the PUC-MPCs (WPB's Production Urgency its waste in nonessential and frivolous Committees and WMC's Manpower Priority activity. Perfume manufacturers still Committees) have become active in all war employ chemists who are needed in ord- producing areas throughout the country nance plants; producers of "junk jewelry" (WP-Sep23'44, p7). Their membership con- hold workers whose manual skill would be sists of local representatives of both valuable ina dozen different war jobs; military and civilian war agencies. They wholesale florists employ labor that know the local labor markets, the war could be used on the farms. production programs, the essential civil- Even if the committees had the puni- ian needs. They have performed valuable tive authority to impose ceilings on all service in justing the manpower flow. these activities and the large police But because of their limited authority force required to enforce them, the gain their methods of filling war jobs have would probably not repay the effort. The been indirect, rather than positive. ceiling technique does not release the The commi have two instruments to type of manpower now most needed by the war effort. Employers, in self-interest, IN THIS ISSUE: would lay off their least productive, least skilled workers. NOT ONE MANPOWER PROBLEM 1 And, even if the committees had the DECEMBER OUTPUT-PROPHETIC OF 1945 4 mechanism for squeezing manpower out of PRODUCTION PROGRESS PRELIMINARY 7 nonessential activities, they would be KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK 11 powerless, as matters: now stand, todirect its flowinto the urgent jobs. The com- CONFIDENTIAL JANUARY 27, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL 3 mittees name the industries and plants number of such workers would directly in- which need workers most urgently in local crease the number of urgent job place- areas. But workers who apply to the ments that the committees could bring U.S.E.S. cannot be forced to accept jobs about. Selective Service rolls now list in these plants or industries. In many close to 20,000,000 men between 18 and 45 areas they can return again and again to who are not in the armed forces. Millions the employment office until they find of these of course are in essential war something that suits them; or they can jobs, but other millions are not. do what nearly half of all job hunters If these other millions were to flow now do: ignore the system completely. into the U.S.E.S. offices under the im- Theoretically a worker who leaves an es- mediate obligation to find war jobs as sential may not take another for 60 long as any were available, the PUC-MPCs days; actually there is nothing to stop would operate farmore effectively. They him from taking another job, unless he would have more manpower-more raw mate- happens to be eligible for tary serv- rial, so to speak-to work with. Inter- ice and thus subject to reclassification regional recruitment would be far more by his draft board. In many areas under effective than at present in relieving WMC regulations an employer may not hire the pressure on tight labor areas. The men off the street; actually the appli- longlist of war plants behind schedule cation of punitive measures that would because of manpower would melt away. prevent this is not considered practi- And the other causes of failure to meet cable and cooperation is voluntary. schedule that have been masquerading be- The referral system provides no pos- hind the manpower cloak would be brought itive method of holding for essential out into the open. war work the labor that is released by cutbacks. Out of 312 men recently laid MORE THAN A THREAT off by a Dayton war plant, a follow-up The mere threat of Congressional action could trace only 56 who had taken other along these lines has brought an in- war jobs. crease in the number of applicants for war jobs. But it would be futile to STIMULUS MISSING infer that the threat alone is enough. Thus the instruments in the hands of If Congress doesn't act, then such leg- the PUC-MPCs-employment ceilings and islative repudiation of the principle labor referrals-are not effective for would quickly reverse any beneficial la- driving manpower into war work and hold- bor movement that had been brought about. ing there. They were not so designed: Besides aiding in the present crisis, they were intended as methods for chan- increased control over manpower would be neling and adjusting its flow. The a valuable asset to the war production stimulus that causes workers actually to program of the future, especially during seek war jobs must come from elsewhere. the period when diminishing German re- It now appears that this stimulus- sistance will encourage many workers to this driving force-must be provided soon "beat the gun" in looking for peacetime if urgent battle-front needs are to be jobs. And as materials and facilities met. In the past the PUC-MPCs have had for all kinds of production become more a real measure of control only over the freely available, it may be that the workers whose draft deferment depended economy in the one-front war period will upon their being in essential war work. be more easily controlled by regulation An act of Congress that increased the of the manpower component. CONFIDENTIAL 4 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS December Output-Prophetic of 1945 In year of small ups and downs, last month's increase was the smallest of the lot. rise WOS smallest; monthly production must However, there's a December gain increase 6% first quorter to meet schedule. that does appear significant: the ad- Year's total 12% ahead of 43, double '42. dition of 50,000 workers to the muni- tions rolls. This checks a procession DECEMBER munitions production, at $5,- of 12 monthly declines (WP-Jan20'45, pl). 200,000,000 (preliminary), was only a This decline in the work rolls has been shade above November, and November was partially offset by increased produc- the lowest production month in more tivity per worker. To meet pending than a year. The slight rise can hardly production goals, munitions work rosters be interpreted as a reversal in the gen- must continue to increase into the second eral downward trend which characterized quarter. 1944. Such a reversal is essential if the proposed 1945 production goal of DECEMBER GAINS $64,700,000,000 is to be acnieved. In- All major groups of munitions failed deed, average monthly production in the to make schedule for the fourth consec- first quarter will have to rise to $5,- utive month, but only ships and communi- 500,000,000, or 6% above last month's cation and electronic equipment failed rate. to register gains over November. The December was beset by a number of largest gain was in combat and motor difficulties. Heavy snowfall and ice vehicles-8%. Biggest deficit from sched- conditions forced a five-day shutdown ule was in guns and fire control-also 8%. of the Chillicothe, O., plant of Na- The first-of-month schedule called tional Fireworks, Inc. As a result, for $5,330,000,000 and this was missed the 2.25-inch aircraft rocket missed by 2%. Schedules for the first half of schedule by 40% (WP-Jan20'45,p12). Time 1945 are much higher: $5,500,000,000 was also lost in the transfer of load- per month average during the first quar- ing from temporary to permanent facili- ter, and a peak of $5,600,000,000 dur- ties at naval ammunition depots. Fur- ing the second quarter. This peak re- thermore, many plants were closed down quires an output 8% better than Decem- Christmas Day and more absenteeism dur- ber's and will surpass the previous high ing the year-end holidays was reported of $5,564,000,000 in November, 1943. than in previous war years. First-quarter production problems vary. Ships and combat and motor ve- SMALL UPS, SMALL DOWNS hicles are already at the required level Although 1944 total production of of production, but a rise of 19% is $63,700,000,000 was 12% ahead of 1943 called for in communication and elec- and more than double 1942, the year had tronic equipment and 13% for ammunition. none of the steadily climbing quality Much sharper increases are required for of its predecessors (chart, page 6). many of the critical programs within It was a year of small ups and downs, these major groups-for example, 150% with the downs exceeding the ups during for rockets. Here is how the average the last nine months. And the December monthly schedules in the first quarter CONFIDENTIAL JANUARY 27, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL 5 NEW PEAKS FOR OLD This was the peak in muni- tions production (Nov. 1943): This was last month's production: As of Oct.1, this was the scheduled 1945 peak: Now, this is the proposed 1945 peak: o 2 3 4 5 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS WAR PROGRESS compare with the December production: Military requirements, which have - % Rise been going up rapidly since October, Dec. Req. 1st are expected to continue to rise as the Prod. Qtr. '45 year's needs are more fully determined. (millions) About $2,500,000,000 has been added to Aircraft $1,380 +11% the 1945 program since January 1, mak- Ships 1,041 0 ing the total about $64,700,000,000. Guns, fire control 258 +3 These increases include some. $500,000,- Ammunition 620 +13 000 each foraircraft and Maritime, and Combat, motor veh 516 0 $1,500,000,000 for the Army Service Com., elec. equip 335 +19 Forces. Although the exact breakdown Other equip., sup- of the ASF figure has not yet been an- plies 1,050 +2 nounced, it understood that the big- Total $5,200 +5% gest increases will be in tanks, guns, The production jobahead ismore dif- heavy ammunition, and quartermaster ficult than in 1944, not only because supplies needed to help equip divisions the program isnow larger than last year of French troops now being organized but because of constant shifts in re- to fight with the Allies against Ger- quirements. Programs in which produc- many and to replace equipment and sup- tion has attained a peak are frequently plies lost in the German break-through. cut back. On the other hand, battle- front tactics and inventions add new Aircraft items to the list. The effect is to December output of airframes, en- decrease schedules of "easy-to-make" gines, propellers, spare parts, gliders, items, to increase schedules of "hard- etc. ran to $1,380,000,000, about even to-make" items. with November: and the first-of-month CONFIDENTIAL 6 ... CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS THE 1945 PRODUCTION JOB Munitions in the first quarter must rise 6% over the December rate and go still higher in the second quarter to meet proposed schedules. 6 6 4 4 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2 2 0 o J F M A M J J A 5 o N D J F M A M J J A S o N 0 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. 1943 1944 1945 . January 1, 1945 schedules plus proposed increases. Monthly Average WAR PROGRESS schedule was missed by 4%. Measured tronic equipment to a new high of $4,- by airframe weight, December production 270,000,000 (preliminary)-an increase was 2% short of schedule (WP-Jan13'45 of 24% over 1943. Radio equipment, which p7). In critical aircraft, however, accounted for more than half of 1943 the monthly gain was sharp, and output production, declined, and constituted of $303,000,000 was only 1% shy of sched- only one-third of 1944 output. Of the ule (WP-Jan20'45,p2). $815,000,000 overall gain in signal For all of 1944, production of air- equipment, more than half ($450,000,- craft totaled $18,900,000,000. As in 000) was in airborne radar: the case of airframe weight, this was a new peak-some 37% higher than 1943. 1944 1943 % Change Still, it was well below the $23,500,- (millions) Radar 000,000 planned for at the beginning of $1,470 $940 +56% the year. The difference between this Airborne... 860 390 +121 Radio figure and actualcutput-$4,600,000,000, 1,750 1,815 -15 Other or 20%-reflects repeated cutbacks in 1,050 700 +50 Total the aircraft program. $4,270 $3,455 +24% Signal Equipment In 1943, airborne radar accounted for only 11%of total communication and Sharp expansion in airborne radar electronic production, but in December, and field and assault wire boosted 1944 1944, it represented 32% of the month's production of communication and elec- output. And the program is continuing CONFIDENTIAL JANUARY 27, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL ... 7 to expand: a rise of 10% over the De- over 1944. As of January 1. require- cember production rate is called for ments for 1945 amount to $225,000,000. in the first quarter of 1945. Output must go up 22% over December to Production of critical field and meet the first-quarter schedules, which assault wire rose 78%, from $66,820,000 have been lowered for feasibility rea- in 1943 to $119,000,000. An even bigger sons. increase is slated for this year-89% Ground radar output felloff sharply PRODUCTION PROGRESS-Preliminary Value delivered or put in place-millions of dollars Dec Nov. / % Deviction Dec. Preliminary Actual Change Schedule* Dec Preim vs. Schedule MUNITIONS AND WAR CONSTRUCTION $5,408 $5,404 all $5,558 à TOTAL MUNITIONS 5,200 5,184 all 5,330 to Aircraft 1,380 1,378 nil 1,439 + Total airfromes, engines, propellers 1,096 1,096 o 1,143 L Airplane spore parts 261 267 o 250 -5 Other aircraft and equipment 17 15 +135 16 +6 Ships (incl. mointenonce) 1,041 1,108 -6 1,082 L Novy 464 485 4 547 -15 Combotant 174 173 di 179 -) Londing vessels 158 182 -15 169 -7 Other 132 130 +2 199 -34 Moritime 56% 398 -9 32% +12 Corgo and supply 280 304 le 272 e Other 84 9 è M +62 Army Vessels 47 58 -19 45 14 Ship Maintenance and Repair 166 16T -1 166 1 Guns and Fire Control 258 25) +2 281 & Small orms lunder 20mml 25 22 0 22 0 Artillery, mortors, rocket launchers-ASF 3 63 -2 63 A Fire control and searchlights lexci. Rodor! 5% 50 48 % -4 Noval guns and other 87 8 12 107 -19 Ammunition 620 604 +3 62% :- Small orms ammunition (under 20mm) 45 46 & " o Artillery omm, mortor shells, rockets-ASF 212 201 +2 215 all Aerial bombs-ASF 149 135 +10 148 +1 Novol ammunition and other 214 222 4 218 4 Combot and Motor Vehicles 516 481 +7 500 :- Combor vehicles 184 165 +12 186 -1 Motor corrioges for SP guns 33 29 +14 31 +6 Automotive vehicles and tractors 29) 287 +4 303 -1 Communication and Electronic Equipment 335 346 -3 355 & Radio 102 106 & 112 -9 Rodor 142 139 +2 145 -1 All other 91 99 à 100 -9 Other Equipment and Supplies 1,050 1,014 +3 1,029 +2 WAR CONSTRUCTION IGOV'T. FINANCED) 208 215 4 206 + As of December L 1 Schedule used for preliminary CONFIDENTIAL 8 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS in 1944 because of reduced needs in cline dollarwise was in combat and motor antiaircraft and coastal defense; from vehicles-down nearly $1,500,000.000: & peak of $42,000,000 in March, it was down to $5,000,000 monthly in the final % quarter. However, recent developments ASF 1944 1943 Change have made it an effective offensive (millions) weapon (WP-Jan6'45,pl) and now monthly Guns & fire production in the first quarter is sched- control $1,635 $2,500 -11% uled to more than triple. Ammunition 4,815 4,455 +8 December output of communication and Com. & motor electronic equipment dropped slightly vehicles 5,035 6,210 -19 below November to $335,000,000 andmi ssed Total $11,485 $13,165 -13% schedule by 6%. This decline was due mainly to the fact that radio produc- The total 1945 ASF ammuni tion program, tion was 9% short of the month's fore- scheduled at 7,145,000,000, is 48% more cast. Airborne radar registered a gain than output in 1944, and 28% above the of only 1%, because of recent major December level. Scheduled production shifts within the program: it will take of artillery ammunition amounts to $3,- time to speed up production on new types 900,000,000, or 74% more than produc- of equipment. tion last year. In the case of heavy- Army Ordnance artillery ammunition, the 1945 program is nearly triple 1944 output. -The aeri- As & result of cutbacks which took al-bomb program is 38% greater, and place during the first half of the year, small-arms ammunition, 30% more. ground army munitions output (excluding The combat and motor vehicles pro- signal equipment) amounted to $11,485,- gram for 1945 is up 8%, largely because 000,000 in 1944, or 13% less than 1943's of the increased demand for heavy tanks. $13,165,000,000. Whereas in November, The 1945 program as of January 1 calls 1943, production of ground army muni- for 21,185 tanks, of which 6,500 are tions ran about $1,200,000,000 a month, heavy models, as compared to only 54 by May it had declined to less than heavies turned out in 1944. $900,000,000. Then, with the institu- tion of the heavy ammunition program BIG ONES PREFERRED and other boosts in schedules, the pro- Similarly, the demand for medium duction trend was reversed, and now trucks has been sharply reduced this ground army munitions output is running year in favor of heavier, costlier types. at a $1,100,000,000-a-month rate, and In contrast to ammunition and combat is scheduled to go even higher. and motor vehicles, the ASF guns and fire control program for 1945, at $1,- LONE INCREASE 450,000,000, is smaller than output Ammunition was the only major group last year-by 11%. However, themortar in 1944 to show an increase over the program is more than double that for previous year: the big cutback in small- 1944, and heavy field artillery is 35% arms ammunition was more than offset larger. by the sharp rise in output of heavy- December ASF ground munitions pro- artillery ammunition. The biggest de- duction amounted to $1,080,000,000 (pre- CONFIDENTIAL JANUARY 27, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL ... 9 YEAR-END MUNITIONS ROUNDUP Production in 1944 rose 12% over 1943. This year's proposed schedules are 4% above the December rate. But aircraft must rise 21%, ammunition 36%. Total Munitions Aircroft 70 30 60 20 50 IO 40 o 1942 1943 1944 Dec. 1944 1945" Annual Rore 30 Ships 20 20 IO BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 10 o 1942 1943 1944 Dec. 1944 1945* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS Annual Rate o 1942 1943 1944 Dec. 1944 1945" Annual Rate Ammunition 20 Combat and Motor Vehicles IO IO o 1942 1943 1944 Dec 1944 1945 o Annual Rote 1942 1943 1944 Dec. 1944 1945" Annual Rote Guns and Fire Control Comm. and Elect Equip. IO IO o **** o 1942 1943 1944 Dec. 1944 1945" 1942 1943 1944 Dec 1944 1945" Annual Rote Annual Rote - January 4 1945 schedules plus proposed increases. WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 10 ... CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS liminary), slightly higher than in No- the-year forecast. It was aided by vember. Ammunition output was up 8% transfer of facilities from 20mm. am- and was on schedule. Combat and motor munition, production of which declined vehicles were 8% above November, but to $295,000,000-or 19% of the 1943 missed schedule by 1%. Guns and fire level-as the result of a cutback caused control equaled November production by changes in strategic requirements. and met schedule. Last year's production of torpedoes, depth charges, and marine mines-com- Naval Ordnance prising 20% of the naval ammunition Deliveries of naval anmunition in program-rose 45% over 1943 to $380,- 1944 reached an all-time high of $1,- 000,000. 900,000,000 (preliminary). This was Naval ammunition inventories increased 50% ahead of 1943 and 300% greater than substantially during 1944, especially 1942 output. in HC and 40mm. ammunition. Inventories Monthly production rose from $137,- of 14-inch and 8-inch HC projectiles, 000,000 in January to a peak of $177,- however, are virtually all at advanced 000,000 in August, then declined to bases; these shells are shipped to forces $155,000,000 in December. Schedules afloat and to advanced area stocks as for 1945 increase sharply to a monthly fast as they are loaded, and Continental average of $233,000,000 in the fourth U.S. stocks are close to nil. quarter. In contrast to ammunition, naval guns Two programs-high-capacity ammuni- and fire control is a declining program. tion and rockets-became critical in From a peak of $163,000,000 in May, the latter part of 1944 when production monthly production dropped steadily to failed to keep pace with the rapidly $126,000,000 in December, and schedules accelerating schedules. The schedules, continue to taper off in 1945. However, in turn, have been far short of the production in 1944, at $1,700,000,000, Navy's requirements for these types of was 28% above 1943. ammunition, needed for softening up shore installations in amphibiousopera- ON AND OFF tions. Output of guns amounted to $988,- Loadings of high-capacity ammunition 000,000 for the year-an increase of last year totaled $141,000,000-three 36% over 1943. Four guns - 20mm. and times the 1943 volume. The 1945 sched- 40mm. antiaircraft and the 3-inch 50 ule, however, calls for an increase of caliber and 5-inch 38 caliber double- 80% over 1944. purpose-constitute 90% of the gun pro- Requirements for rockets are rising gram. Only one of these-the 40mm.- much more rapidly. Rocket production was critical last year. It was placed in 1944, at $92,000,000, was nine times on the Production Urgency List in June the output in 1943. But the schedule but was taken off in December, when out- for this year has been upped to $1,000,- put reached a level sufficient to meet 000,000. Output must rise nearly 500% current requirements (WP-Jan20'45,p12). over the December rate. Cutbacks in new naval construction Production of 40mm. ammunition tri- and mounting inventories were respon- pled the 1943 output and met the sched- sible for downward revisions in the gun ule of $87,000,000 set in the first-of- program during 1944. Inventories of CONFIDENTIAL JANUARY 27, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL ... II KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK Lotest Month Some Week Previous Week Week Ago 1944 1943 1942 1941 War Program-checks paid (millions of dollars) 1,562 1,512 1,510 1,701 1,414 453 127 Wor bond soles - E,F,G (millions of dollars) 214 155 272 309 219 245 N.A. Money in circulation (millions of dollors) N.A. 25,209 25,280 20,408 15,354 11,077 8,542 Wholesole prices (1926=100) All commodities 103.2' 103.0 104.5 103.0 101.6 95.0 80.2 Form products 125.9' 125.9 125.9 122.1 116.6 100.8 71.0 Foods 104.7 104.6 105.8 104.8 104.8 92.5 73.0 All other 99.1' 99.1 99.1 97.9 96.3 94.4 84.4 Petroleum (000 borrels) Total U.S. stocks 416,840' 417,833 418,915 420,948 440,318 435,873 468,564° Total East Coost stocks 64,280' 64,400 69,493 60,278 48,609 83,354 84,983 East Coast receipts 1,732 1,742 1,797 1,490 1,209 1,010 N.A. Bituminous cool production (000 short tons) 2,008 1,888 1,668 2,042 1,850 1,881 1,729 Steel operations (% of copacity) 92.6% 93.6% 92.15 93.16 97.00 96.4% 95.1% Freight cors unlooded for exports, excluding grain* Atlantic Coast ports 2,847 3,122 3,277 3,051 1,156 1,646 868 Gulf Coast ports 542 439 524 369 370 408 320 Pocific Coast ports 1,903 1,871 1,667 1,292 926 165 102 Department store soles (1935-39=100) 160 166 369 143 146 135 102 Preliminary. Excludes military-owned stocks. E Estimated. Daily Averoge. N.A. Not Available. Unadjusted. navel guns on December 1 were 80% higher 1944 1943 % Change than at the beginning of last year. (000 tons) Shifts in types of armament as a result Combatants 1,033 1,359 -24% of changes in warfare also played a Landing vessels 1,512 793 +91 part in the reduction. Patrol & mine. 159 193 -18 District craft. 127 91 +40 Naval Ships Aux. & other 329 155 +112 More tonnage was completed by the Total 3,160 2,591 +22% Navy during 1944 than the 2,700,000 tons afloat at the time of Pearl Harbor. Despite the fact that deliveries of Total output, at 3,160,000 displacement combatants were below the 1943 level, tons, represented a 22% gain over 1943. completions this year will exceed last During the first half of the year, year's by 11%. landing craft were pushed to the limit; December contributed 236,000 dis- in the second half, combat loaders. As placement tons to the 1944 total-1% a result of the emphasis on landing below November and 8% behind the first- craft, they were almost double 1943's of-month forecast. The lag was mainly total. Combatants, on the other hand, in district and auxiliary craft. In- dropped about one-fourth. Nearly half deed, combatant ships were 19% ahead the total tonnage was in landing craft, of forecast—10% above November-mainly one-third in combatant vessels: as the result of the delivery of the CONFIDENTIAL 12 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS 12,000-ton aircraft carrier escort "Block The December value of deliveries was Island" scheduled for January: 7% below November and 3% behind the Dec. % Deviation From first-of-month schedule, butmost major Deliv, Nov. Sched. types came through as planned: the lag 1000 tons) was in minor types. Combat loaders, 2% Combatants 74 +10% ahead of schedule, again accounted for +19% Landing vessels 116 -3 -6 nearly half of the dollar total, but Patrol & mine. 7 -46 0 from here on they will decline sharply. District craft. 12 -8 -45 In January, for example, only 24 APAs Aux. & other 27 +4 -36 and AKAs are scheduled, against deliv- Total 236 -1% -8% eries of 44 in December: and by midyear they are virtually out of Maritime sched- Other combatants included the 10,000- ules. Through December, 187 ships were ton cruisers, "Topeka, " "Oklahoma City," delivered to the Navy, about one month and "Atlanta," eight destroyers, two behind the July 1 schedule of 216 for '44. DEs, and eight submarines. The Navy completed 35 combat loaders, "ZIPPER SHIP" bringing the total through December to Liberty ships declined as planned 174, or 45 fewer than were scheduled but beat the December forecast by one- at midyear. 44 to 43. As in the case of combat Maritime Ships loaders, Liberty ship deliveries peter out by mid-1945. Last month, 24 ad- Deliveries by the Maritime Commission ditional modified Liberty ships were of $450,000,000 in December brought the put into Maritime schedules, but these 1944 total to $4,750,000,000, asagainst are airplane transports. Known as the $4,225,000,000 in 1943-a gain of 12%. "Zipper Ship" (Z-EC2), they are scheduled And for this year, $3,700,000,000 is for delivery in the second half of the tentatively on the books, some $600,000,- year. higher than the 1945 schedule of last month. Most of this increase is for RISING PERCENTAGE delivery in the second half of 1945. Victory ship completions were the As proposed schedules now stand, $2,- highest since July-13 delivered to 400,000,000 is set for the first half, nine for November, though two ships $1,300,000,000 for the second. short of the sharply rising schedule. Here's how 1944 production compares By June, deliveries are scheduled to with 1943: reach 46. In December, they represented 1944 1943 % Change only 8% of Maritime deliveries, but (millions) will be about one-fourth during 1945. Standard cargo" $470 $490 -4% Deliveries of standard cargo vessels Liberty ships. 1,370 2,350 -42 met the schedule of 11, but were four Victory ships. 290 0 00 under the November total. For 1945, Tankers 820 695 +18 this group rises sharply and about 60 Combat loaders. 900 30 +2900 are scheduled for June. All other 900 660 +37 Tanker deliveries matched the Novem- Total $4,750 $4,225 +12% ber total of 27 ships, one ahead of . Includes C1-M-AV1. schedule. CONFIDENTIAL War Progress is loaned to you for official use. It contains CONFIDENTIAL information affecting the security of the United States. Revelation of its contents in any manner to unauthorized persons is prohibited by the Espionage Act. OFFICIAL RULES for its CUSTODY (1) Not to permit information from any copy in their custody to become available to anyone except a Government employee under their immediate supervision who will be bound by the restrictions hereby agreed to and who requires access to WAR PROGRESS in connection with his official duties. (2) To keep all copies in a securely locked container when not actually in use. (3) Not to incorporate information from WAR PROGRESS in any record unless the use of such record is restricted as if the record were itself a copy of WAR PROGRESS. (4) To give prior written notice of any change of address. (5) On written request, or before separation from the Govern- ment position which entitles them to receive WAR PRO- GRESS, to return all copies charged to their account. WAR PROGRESS Confidential Disclosure Punishable Under Expionage Act of (5) a MAR - 1 Lottor, MAR 14 1973 4 Economic Data Special Articles The President 1 WAR PROGRESS Nav C.F. Production Board Disclosure Punishable Under Espionage Act E.O. 11652, Sec. 3(8) and S(D) of (II) DECLASSIFIED Commerce Dept. Letter, 11-16-78 X 175 By RHP, Date MAR 14 1973 X 290 The Coal Supply and John L. Lewis War Facilities: Still a Declining Program Remobilizing Machine Tools W-13 Forecasts Biggest Plane Year <4404 X 4735 X angafficial Number 229 February 3, 1945 WAR PROGRESS Prepared in the War Production Board J.A. Krug, Chairman War Progress is a confidential report designed to provide a coordinated and continuing picture of the overall war program for the various war agencies, To this end, it presents, analyzes, and interprets basic statistical and economic information, and from time to time examines the pros and cons of controversial questions. Although War Progress is an official publication of the War Production Board, statements in it are not to be construed as expressing official attitudes of the Board as a whole, or even of individual members. Conclusions, whenever reached, should be considered editorial conclusions. War Progress is prepared by the Reports Division (Joseph A. Livingston, Director). EDITORIAL STAFF Thomas A. Falco, Roy T. Frye (drafting), Winona Hibbard A. R. Hilliard, Morris Katz, Chester L Kieffer, Joseph A. Livingston (editor), Martha Menaker, J.S. Werking (pro- duction). This report contains CONFIDENTIAL information affecting the defense of the United States. See inside back cover for rules of custody. Form GA-M-SD (1-29-40) No. UNITED STATES OF AMERICA R WAR PRODUCTION BOARD S- 78902 COURIER SERVICE CONTROL RECORD FROM TO: STATISTICS DIVISION DIVISION on OFFICE The President INVOICE on OFFICE RCS TARE (NAME) The White House (ROOM NUMBER) BUILDING Room NUMBER) (BUILDING) DESCRIPTION OF DOCUMENT HP 229 f1 3 COPY I THE SERIAL NUMBER IN THE UPPER RIGHT-HAND CORNER Addressee's Copy SHOULD - IDENTICAL TO NUMBER ON SENDER'S RECEIPT GPO - CONFIDENTIAL NUMBER 229 WAR PROGRESS FEBRUARY 3. 1945 The Coal Supply and John L. Lewis Prospect for 1945 depends on contract nego- consumers who would like to get better tiotions scheduled for March. Meanwhile, grades of coal, but who could get along transportation and distribution are major with poorer grades, get second choice, problems with supply-demand position fight. and 80 on. Also, to guard against hoard- ing, limitations have been, placed on THIS IS AN odd-numbered year. The con- shipments to consumers. tract between the coal operators and Requirements of bituminous coal for John L. Lewis' miners is up again. On 1945 run to 620,000,000 tons, about the March 1, negotiations begin. If 1943 same as in 1944. Production estimates coal history is repeated, some 35,000,- are 580,000,000 tons-some 40,000,000 000 tons of bituminous coal will be lost tons below last year's all-time record by strikes, and a supply crisis would output. The drop is due to manpower be inevitable. shrinkage-shrinkage which has already If there is no strike, however, the occurred and is likely to continue, as supply of bituminous coal will be just we shall see later. about enough to meet requirements for the first nine months of 1945. Then, ASSUMING NO STRIKE If the war with Germany is over, re- During the current quarter, produc- quirements will approximate production. tion is estimated at 150,000,000 tons, If the European war is still going full against requirements of 165,000,000. blast, however, requirements for the It is believed that existing stockpiles, 1945-46 winter season will not be met. currently at 56,000,000 tons (the same as on January 1, 1944), could make up CARRYING THE COALS the 15,000,000-ton deficit. After that, The crux of the current coal crisis is stocks would be at absolute minimum transportation and distribution. Though levels. In the second and third quarter the right sizes and grades are not al- -again assuming no strike-production ways available, supply just about man- and consumption would be in approximate ages to go around-generally speaking. balance at some 145,000,000 tons per But it's tight and has been aggravated quarter. With the war in Europe con- by bad weather. A temporary ban has tinuing, fourth-quarter production would been put on all but direct military be perhaps 25,000,000 tons short of re- shipments in the area east of Chicago quirements-with no help forthcoming and north of the Potomac yards in Alex- from the depleted stockpiles. It's andria, Va. That's why in Washington, against this eventuality that current for instance, a policeman must certify attempts to boost production and reduce that a householder's bin is empty be- requirements are being made. fore shipment is made. The situation is similar in anthra- The Solid Fuels Administration has cite coal. In 1944, nearly 65,000,000 instituted some quasi priorities on in- tons were produced, some 5,000,000 tons dustrial users. Plants needing good short of requirements. For this year, coking coals get first choice. Other the deficit is expected to be higher. CONFIDENTIAL 2 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS During 1944, the draft, deaths and was to have started on January 28 in disabilities, retirements, and loss to mines in southern West Virginia, eastern other industries cut employment from Kentucky, Virginia, and Tennessee (where 370,000 bituminous miners at the start one-third of all bituminous coal is of the year to 340,000 at the end. This produced). However, because coal cars trend is expected to continue. On Fet- were not available-due to the storm- ruary 1, for instance, deferments of the experiment was postponed. some 6,000 miners between 22 and 25 years of age will be canceled. During NO TAKERS all of 1945, about 10,000 miners are It would be possible to increase expected to be lost to the draft. In output by keeping all mines in full addition, 12,000 workers will be lost operation, especially during the summer through retirements and injuries. months. In 1944, it is estimated that between 2,000,000 and 4,000,000 tons FOR WANT OF A LOADER of low-grade coal were not produced be- The loss of manpower has also resulted cause mine operators didnot have orders in indirect coal losses. For instance, for the coal. Thus, mainly in Indiana at the beginning of last year, 90% of and. Illinois, operations slow down in all coal came from mines operating on the summer because of a drop in orders a more-than-five-day schedule. By the for the low-grade coal produced in these end of the year, however, this propor- areas. Production of high-grade coal tion had fallen to 75%. The absence of continues, however, helped along by a few skilled loaders or motormen on field men of the Solid Fuels Adminis- certain days-usually Saturdays-makes tration who make sure that mines pro- it unprofitable for operators to keep ducing better grades get orders for work. the mines going. Absenteeism increased from 8% in March, 1943, to 12% in Octo- POSSIBLE SAVINGS ber, 1944.) If coal miners were de- On the other side of the ledger, be- ferred, perhaps 10,000,000 additional tween 10,000,000 and 15,000,000 tons tons of coal could be produced. of coal could be saved by keeping tem- Another 10,000,000 tons might be peratures in homes and factories down. realized by instituting a nation-wide Also, between 1,000,000 and 2,000,000 seven-day week every other week. This tons might be saved by a reduction in outdoor lighting. Thus production could be raised to IN THIS ISSUE: perhaps 600,000,000 tons and consump- tion could be cut to 610,000,000-with THE COAL SUPPLY AND JOHN L. LEWIS 1 stocks supplying the difference. Dis- tribution now continues to be the main NEW FACILITIES STILL DECLINING 4 problem-getting the coal where it's most urgently required. REMOBILIZING MACHINE TOOLS 7 At worst, there will be a deficit of KEY STATISTICS OF THE YEEK 9 some 25,000,000 tons-assuming no strike -coming mostly in the last quarter of 1945: BIGGEST PLANE YEAR YET 10 1945. And if Germany is knocked out of the war before then, the supply of SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS 12 coal will not be a problem. CONFIDENTIAL FEBRUARY 3, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL ... 3 FEWER MINERS=FEWER MAN-HOURS=LESS COAL I. Because employment in bituminous 2. And overage hours have flattened coal mines has been falling consistently out, 600 600 60 60 (Excludes travel time) 45 45 STRIKES THOUSANDS OF WAGE EARNERS 400 400 200 200 THOUSANDS OF WAGE EARNERS AVERAGE HOURS PER WEEK 6 30 30 AVERAGE HOURS PER WEEK 15 15 o o o o 1942 1943 1944 1945 1942 1943 1944 1945 3. Man-hours worked have fallen off, 4. Resulting in 0 decline in production from the first-quarter 1944 peak. 20 20 200 200 16 16 AVERAGE MAN-HOURS PER WEEK-MILLIONS AVERAGE MAN-HOURS PER WEEK-MILLIONS 150 150 12 12 MILLIONS OF TONS 100 100 8 8 MILLIONS OF TONS 50 50 4 4 o o o 0 1942 1943 1944 1945 1942 1943 1944 1945 5. And the seasonal upturn in coal con- 6. is expected to pull stocks down to the sumption lowest level of the war. 200 200 200 200 Retail and Industrial (end of quorter) Exports 150 150 150 150 MILLIONS OF TONS 100 100 U.S. MILLIONS OF TONS MILLIONS OF TONS 100 100 MILLIONS OF TONS 50 50 50 50 o o o 0 1942 1943 1944 1945 1942 1943 1944 1945 Note: First-quarter 1945 estimated WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 4 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS New Facilities Still Declining Though current schedules, at $1,900,000,000, 000 or more to build and equip new plants represent rise of $500,000,000 over August to produce a needed ,500,000 additional forecast, program for 45 is 25% below 44 truck and bus tires per quarter. With Conversions sove cost of some new plant. about half this increase already planned, total cost is now placed at approxi- DESPITE expanded ordnance facilities mately $60,000,000 ($18,000,000 for and despite announcements that addi- buildings, $42,000,000 for equipment). tional tire, tire cord, and aviation Before the planning job is done, chances gasoline plants will be built, industrial are that total cost will be even lower. construction is still a declining pro- gram. FROM ENGINES TO TIRES Building of war plants this year- As an illustration of what happens, public and private-is currently fore- it was recently found that the Jacobs cast at about $1,900,000,000 (including Aircraft Engine Company factory at Potts- machinery and equipment), 25% lower than town, Pa., was ideally suited to the in 1944. And the downtrend is uninter- manufacture of military-type tires; it rupted, even on a quarterly basis. From has the buildings, the floor space, and an estimated $603,000.000 in the final some of the necessary equipment. Con- three months of 1944, the expected out- versionis now under way at an expendi- lay for industrial expansion drops to ture of $15,000,000 in new machinery. $540,000,000 in the current quarter and At peak, this facility-which will be continues dropping to $390,000,000 in operated by Firestone Tire and Rubber- the closing quarter of 1945-the lowest will produce 15% of the additional 1,- point since the war facilities program 500,000 truck and bus tires needed each began (chart, page 6). quarter. To build an entirely new plant with that capacity would cost anywhere RUMORS AND SCHEDULES from $20,000,000 to $25,000,000 and take In August, 1944, the industrial fa- about a year. Jacobs will be converted cilities program for 1945 was placed at and ready to go within four months. some $1,400,000,000. A few months ago, In smokeless powder, increased re- however, there were reports that about quirements are being met largely by ad- $1,000,000,000 of new plant and equip- ditions to existing plants rather than ment would be needed to carry on the by complete new plants, as at Wabash two-front war this year. Yet current River Ordnance, Newport, Ind.: also, schedules, at $1,900,000,000, represent formerly cut-back powder lines are now & rise of only $500,000,000 over the being brought back into production at no August forecast. more than rehabilitation cost. Down in The point is that early estimates North Carolina, Camp Sutton at Monroe usually assume that complete new plants- and an Army Air Forces replacement camp from the ground up-must be built. Often at Greensboro are being converted to it turns out that the needed capacity the manufacture of 105mm. shells. And can be obtained in some other way. in mortars, a needed rise in output is In tires, for instance, early esti- being attained with virtually no fa- mates were that it might cost $100,000,- cilities expansion at all. CONFIDENTIAL FEBRUARY 3, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL 6 Aside from conversions, additions, and $24,000,000,000. The big push in this rehabilitation, there are other ways in program took place in 1941 and 1942, and which production is being expanded with- it was felt throughout the list-in air- out building and equipping complete new craft, shipways, iron and steel, syn- plants. In tires, the work week has been thetic rubber, aviation gasoline, machine increased, thus helping to offset some tools, ordnance, etc. By contrast, this of the need for more physical capacity. year's facilities increases are concen- In the engine-parts program, surplus trated. tools will expand machining facilities In ordnance, for example, the program at less than the cost of new tools. has been boosted to provide more physical At the end of 1944, over 90% of all capacity for ammunition and artillery. war facilities expansion had been put Outlays for ordnance this year are slated in place: $22,000,000.000 out of nearly at some $450,000,000 (chart, below). LAST LAP IN PLANT EXPANSION By the end of 1944, some 93% of the government-financed facilities program had been put in place, with most of the balance in ordnance, aircraft, and ships. Ordnance July 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 Aircraft Shipways Iron and Steel TOTAL FACILITIES Nonferrous Metals 1945 July 1940- 1944 1941 Chemicals Moch.and Moch. Tools 1943 1942 Synthetic Rubber Other Industrial Facilities $16,300,000,000 Aviation Gasoline o 2 3 4 5 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS WAR PROGR. 15 CONFIDENTIAL 6 ... CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS That's small compared with the 1942 total Administration for War asked for $350,- of almost $2,500,000,000; but if these 000,000 of additional facilities. So boosts hadn't come along, ordnance fa- far, the War Production Board has ap- cilities in 1945 wouldhave beena $200,- proved $71,000,000 of this amount ($64,- 000,000 program at best. Now it stacks 000,000 in Continental United States, up as the Diggest single expansion in $7,000,000 abroad). Giving effect to 1945. this increase, the current high-octane Similarly, the expanded tire program program for 1945 totals $134,000,000- has lifted scheduled plant and equip- or $71,000,000 in the U.S., $63,000,000 ment for the synthetic rubber group. abroad. And in the "other industrial" group, there have been recent increases in fa- FUTURE FOR HIGH-OCTANE cilities for manufacturing products In contrast to every other major such as tire cord, diesel engines, and group, with the possible exception of precision instruments. chemicals, the bulk (about 75%) of fa- On the other hand, there have been no cilities expansion for aviation gaso- significant increases in aircraft, ship- line has been with private funds. This, ways, iron and steel, nonferrous metals, incidentally, is true of all of the and machinery and machine tools. These recently approved increase. In part, facilities programs are running out ac- the high proportion of private financ- cording to schedule. ing reflects the attractive postwar Aviation gasoline is in a different possibilities forhigh-octane gasoline. category. Last July, the Petroleum By and large, the war facilities pro- CONTINUED DECLINE IN INDUSTRIAL CONSTRUCTION Recent boosts in program - for ammunition, tires, and aviation gasoline- don't alter basic trend. 3 3 CONSTRUCTION, MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT 2 2 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS Actual BILLIONS OF DOLLARS New Program Old Program o o 3Q 40 OF 2Q. 3Q 4Q IQ 2Q 3Q 40 10 2Q 30 40 10 2Q 3Q 40 IQ 2Q 3Q 40 -1940- 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 Note: includes privote and government-financed facilities. - PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL FEBRUARY 3, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL 7 gram may be considered set. It is always equipment will be available out of the possible that a radical type of weapon substantial volume already installed. may be developed, thus bringing a rush Therefore, a significant break in the call for productive facilities. But the current downtrend of the program is un- chances are that the necessary plant and likely. Remobilizing Machine Tools Unforeseen war needs force re-expansion of from $153,000,000 in March to $260,000,- industry and deferment of civilian orders. 000 by the end of the year (chart, page Shortage of components is No. I obstacle. 81. And an industry which had expected Skilled workers, idle tools are sought. a continually shrinking volume of busi- ness throughout '44 had to try at mid- ONE YEAR AGO it looked as if the machine- year to re-expand. From a low of $33,- tool industry's war job was just about 000,000 a month, shipments rose to $37,- over. Monthly production dropped from 000,000 at the end of the year, but a peak of 29,530 units in December, this was not enough to keep abreast of 1942, to only 8, 400 units in July, 1944. Army-Navy demands. More than half the working force had scattered to other jobs. The industry DELAYED AMMUNITION was asking for permission to produce Shell and rocket manufacturers re- post V-E Day tools. ported that output of ammunition needed On July 29, the War Production Board at once on the battlefields was being authorized toolmakers to use idle fa- delayed by slippages in tool shipment cilities for production of unrated or- schedules. The heavy-artillery ammuni- ders provided this did not interfere tion tool program, first projected dur- with military output. This step, it ing the Italian campaign, was behind was anticipated, would enable the in- schedule. Of the 2,827 units scheduled dustry to maintain toolmaking facilities for delivery to the end of January, 2,087 and sufficient workers to cope with un- had been shipped through January 18. foreseen war contingencies, and would Concentration of tool orders in a few expedite industrial reconversion-and plants, accompanied by concentration re-employment-after V-E Day. by these plants of components orders, The unforeseen war contingencies was largely responsible. Five companies developed quickly-almost before the which received 42% of the orders ac- tool industry could get started on or- counted for 60% of the slippage. To ders for unrated tools. In October, guard against such order bunching and and again in November, requirements for component plant overloading on other heavy and medium artillery and mortar critical programs, WPB's Tools Division ammunition and Navy rockets soared (WP- was made a clearinghouse for all ma- Dec9'44,p7). New production facilities chine-tool orders (WP-Dec16'44,p15). and tools to equip them were needed. Another step taken by the Tools Di- Expansion of other critical programs- vision to make full use of available tires, tanks, guns, trucks, rubber- capacity was the establishment of pool added to the demand for new tools. orders. Last month Defense Plant Cor- The machine-tool backlog crept up poration, on the recommendation of WPB, CONFIDENTIAL 8 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS GROWING MACHINE TOOL BACKLOG For 0 long time, shipments from machine tool plants exceeded new orders; now the reverse is true. Result: unfilled orders are the highest since October, 1943. 400 1500 Shipments vs. Net New Orders Unfilled Orders (end of month) 300 1000 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS Net New Orders 200 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 500 Shipments 100 o 1942 o 1943 1944 1942 1943 1944 WAR PROGRESS awarded contracts totaling some $40,- tool manufacturers tomeet required de- 000,000 to 44 tool plants. These con- livery dates on rated orders before tracts anticipate tool requirements of scheduling any unrated orders. Delivery manufacturers engaged on the mortar schedules already established for Feb- and medium-artillery ammunition tool ruary and March will not be affected programs. This was the first time since except by diversions. As a safeguard early 1943 that pool orders were found against delays in filling essential un- necessary by the War Department. rated orders, WPB has arranged for spe- Shortages of components-iron cast- cial priorities in urgent cases. Un- ings, electric motors and controls, rated orders comprise about 23% of the hydraulic pumps, etc.-are the Number 1 $260,000,000 backlog. Deliveries in obstacle to increased tool production. this category had risen from $24,000 in WPB expediters have been sent into the September to $3,347,000 in December. field to schedule available components through to the most urgent tool orders. THE RIGHT MAN On-the-spot checks disclosed that Shortage of manpower is the indus- unrated orders-the tool category which try's Number 2 problem. In January, includes some essential war-related ma- 1943, the working force was 120,000; by chinery as well as postwar equipment- September, 1944, it was only 54,000. were competing with critical programs Recent recrui tment has added only 2,000 for the short supply of components and workers. Here the task is to find work- manpower. To end this conflict, the ers with special skills and training Tools Division on January 26 ordered in precision machining. Almost all CONFIDENTIAL FEBRUARY 3, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL ... 9 other war plants are also searching for presented on a plant-by-plant basis to this type of worker. the manpower authorities. Although the Army recently furloughed Meanwhile, .intensive efforts have some 200 soldiers to work in machine- been made to locate "surplus" tools and tool plants with Army contracts, many tools not being fully utilized on war tool companies have been unable toobtain programs. Defense Plant Corporation has urgency manpower ratings. Local Pro- "frozen" the sale of surplus machine duction Urgency Committees, while rec- tools in 34 categories and ordered an ognizing the primary urgency of machine inventory of all its leased machines. tools for war contracts, have been un- A joint Army-Navy-Maritime-WPB-DPC com- willing to grant priorities to tool mittee, inscreening inventory reports, plants; since production of war and non- discovered some 1,400 machines which war tools occurs simultaneously, re- appear to be available for immediate ferred workers might be assigned to assignment to critical programs. production of unrated orders. Surplus machines won't entirely solve Currently the Tools Division is ana- the present tool shortage problem, how- lyzing all plant order boards to separate ever. Most of the idle tools are gen- urgent war-related unrated orders (like eral-purpose machines. They have an railroad repair machinery) from non- important place on production lines, but essential items. When this jobis com- the lines can't function until special- pleted, amore realistic picture of the purpose machines, now on order, are criticality of labor shortages can be built and put in place. KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK Lotest Previous Month Same Week Week Week Ago 1944 1943 1942 1941 Wor Program - checks poid (millions of dollors) 1,576 1,562 1,872 1,627 1,531 507 153 Wor bond soles-E,F,G (millions of dollars) 257 214 510 651 378 266 - Money in circulation (millions of dollors) 25,264° 25,175 25,326 20,534 15,666 11,231 8,548 Wholesole prices (1926=100) All commodities 104.7° 104.8 104.7 103.1 101.8 95.5 80.8 Form products 125.8° 126.6 126.7 122.6 117.7 100.3 72.6 Foods 104.4 105.0 105.5 104.7 105.0 93.6 74.1 All other 99.3° 99.3 99.1 98.0 96.3 94.5 84.4 Petroleum (000 borrels) Total us. stocks 407,376 409,730 417,268 418,352 439,858 496,239° 496,786* Total East Coost stocks 59,987 61,969 69,493 57,876 46,731 78,445 84,854 East Coast receipts 1,867 1,698 1,698 1,535 1,066 N.A. N.A. Bituminous cool production (000 short tons)" 1,993 2,025 1,813 2,125 1,929 1,928 1,647 Steel operations (% of copacity) 90.1% 92.6% 95.8% 96.5% 98.6% 94.6% 97.1% Freight cors unloaded for exports, excluding groin** Atlantic Coast ports 1,972 2,847 2,624 3,020 1,306 1,750 1,002 Gulf Coost ports 511 542 403 397 330 534 235 Pocific Coost ports 2,107 1,903 1,381 1,284 769 307 143 Department store soles (1935-39=100)! 159' 160 123 145 125 1.22 90 P Preliminary. *Excludes military-owned stocks. E Estimated. **Dolly Averoge. N.A Not Avallable, +Unodjusted. CONFIDENTIAL 10 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS 1945: Biggest Plane Year Yet W-13 schedule is 2% above 1944 output and major groups is in Forts and Liberators: 6% above W-I2R. The biggest boost:Forts 21%. Fighters are next in line with a and Liberators. Jet planes emphasized. boost of 13%. At the other extreme, Aluminum is a problem anew. W-13 forecasts a drop of 14% in light bombers: the A-26 Invader is practically ANOTHER boost in schedules for 1945, unchanged, but Navy light bombers take & introduction of a new jet-propelled deep cut, in line with decreasing re- plane, andextension of schedules through quirements. Because schedules for the 1946 for the first time-these are the B-32 Dominator and 6-engined B-36 are high lights of W-13, latest quarterly pushed back-a matter of production revision of the aircraft program. feasibility-superbombers arenow slated As schedulesnow stand, 1945 is slated to run 2% lower in 1945 than indicated to record a newhigh in airframe weight: in W-12R. (At 4,384 planes, the B-29 987,000,000 pounds (approximately 83,- Superfortress is virtually unchanged.) 700 planes), or 2% over last year's peak The number of planes scheduled in (WP-Jan13'45,p8). Compared with the each major group this year, together original W-12 schedule for 1945, the with the percentage change from W-12R current program is 9% higher in weight (airframe-weight basis), is shown below: and 11% higher in numbers. Even giving effect to upward revisions in W-12 (W- % Change 12R) the net increase is substantial, No. of From running to 6% in weight and 7% in numbers. Planes W-12R This year's peak is scheduled for All military planes. 83,739 +6% October-22% above recent levels. This Army procured. 57,079 +7 is a dramatic reversal of the downtrend Navy procured 26,660 -1 since May (chart, page 11). Materials Combat planes 69,271 +6 are again aproblem, alongwith manpower. Superbombers 5,176 -2 Forts & Liberators 7,910 +21 AN OLD STORY Patrol bombers 2,827 -2 In aluminum sheet, for instance, Medium bombers 2,051 -2 ARCO is asking for some 207,000,000 Light bombers 12,511 -4 pounds in the second quarter. This is Fighters (inc. 55% more than initial first-quarter esti- naval reconn. 38,796 +14 mates of 134,000,000 pounds. (A request Transports 7,313 +3 for supplemental allotments couldn't be Trainers 2,412 +23 granted.) Meanwhile, manufacturers are Communications & drawing on inventories, now down to about special purpose. 4,743 +18 a 30-days' supply, versus a "normal" level of about 60 days. Instead of de- Increases in the W-13 program break clining, total aircraft employment must down into three categories: increase almost 4%-from 1,676,000 at 1. With an eye on the two-front war, the end of 1944 to an estimated 1,735,- schedules for models such as the B-17 000 by the middle of 1945. Flying Fortress, B-24 Liberator, P-51 Largest increase over W-12R in Mustang, and P-47 Thunderbolt have been CONFIDENTIAL FEBRUARY 3, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL ... II ANOTHER BOOST IN AIRCRAFT 1945 plane program calls for 2% more airframe weight than 1944. WH3 schedule lifts year's goal 6% above WH2R. 100 100 Airframe Weight WH3 80 60 Actual WH2R WH2 60 MILLIONS OF POUNDS 60 SHIFTS IN '45 PLANE PROGRAM 1500 I945 Program-W-9 through W-13 40 Actual MILLIONS OF POUNDS MILLIONS OF POUNDS 1000 40 500 20 20 o 1944 w9 WHO W-11 WH2 WH2R WH3 o o J F M A M J J A 5 o N D J F M A M J J A S o N o J F M A M J J A 5 0 N D 1944 1945 1946 WAR PROGRESS lifted. Ford, Willow Run, carries the to the French air forces. The boost in entire net increase in the Liberator- the Commando (455 planes) means that this some 1, 100 planes. In & few months, Ford transport will begin to replace C-47 will be shifting over to a radically Skytrains in the Troop Carrier Command. revised version of the Liberator, the 3. For newmodels, such as the P-80 B-24N: changes include a single tail, Shooting Star, FR Fireball, and F8F Bear- redesigned aileron, and new engines, cat, increases are in line with plans ball turret, and pilot's canopy. In- to replace standard types in combat stead of releasing 10,000 workers, Ford squadrons. By contrast, the new TBY will be trying to recruit 1,600 more, Seawolf, the Navy's ace torpedo bomber, and in the face of a tight labor area. is cut by more than 500 planes at Con- 2. In planes such as the FG Corsair, solidated Vultee, Allentown-this to F6F Hellcat, C-54 Skymaster, C-46 Com- bring the schedule down to a more real- mando, and P-63 Kingcobra, stepups stem istic level. from increased requirements, chiefly for the Pacific war. The Navy is still UPS AND DOWNS emphasizing fighters at the expense of As compared with W-12R, increases dive bombers. Thus, Goodyear at Akron in selected individual models range comes in for a rise of about 300 Cor- from 3% for the Fireball and the Sky- sairs, and Curtiss, Columbus, takes a master to 31% for the Liberator. On cut of some 500 SB2C Helldivers. At the downside, the smallest decline is Bell, Buffalo, a rise of 440 Kingcobras in the Dominator (6%) and the largest is all accounted for by an allocation is in the Seawolf (38%): CONFIDENTIAL 12 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS Labor Force-Employment-Food Production Some Month Latest Preceding 2 Months Month P Month Ago 1943 1942 1941 1939 LABOR FORCE (millions) Total 51.3 52.2 52.9 51.9 53.6 53.6 N.A. Employment 50.6 51.5 52.2 51.0 52.2 50.4 Mole 33.3 33.7 34.1 34.2 36.8 37.5 Female 17.3 17.8 18.1 16.8 15.4 12.9 Unemployment .7 .7 .6 is 1.4 3.3 Mole A 4 is .5 .8 2.4 Female 3 -3 3 in .6 .9 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT (thousands) Total 38,901 38,352 38,364 40,197 40,475 37,349 31,688 Monufacturing- Total 15,653 15,602 R 15,698 17,080 16,415 13,817 10,694 Duroble 9,220 9,174 R 9,262 10,333 9,471 7,268 4,983 Nonduroble 6,433 6,428 6,436 6,747 6,944 6,549 5,711 Mining 806 812 816 867 938 1,007 928 Trode 7,657 7,295 @ 7,146 7,554 7,743 8,123 7,368 Government (Federal, State, and Local) 6,117 5,913 R 5,945 6,071 5,787 4,699 4,112 Other! 8,668 8,730 8,759 8,625 9,592 9,703 8,586 FOOD PRODUCTION Dairy products (millions of pounds) Butter, creamery 85.8 100.3 113.3 93.0 106.0 112.6 112.2 Cheese 63.5 75.8 81.5 58.4 55.6 71.5 44.2 Milk, evoporated 210.8 245.0 275.0 156.0 166.0 259.8 123.7 Meats (millions of pounds) Total (incl. lord) 1,715.0 1,605.0 1,426.0 2,014.0 1,553.0 1,394.0 1,285.0 Beef and veol 694.3 762.6 690.2 676.0 548.6 535.9 472.2 Lamb and mutton 81.1 89.7 80.1 94.4 82.5 57.2 59.1 Pork (incl. lord) 939.2 752.5 655.5 1,243.4 922.0 800.8 753.6 Lord 171.9 120.1 111.3 210.9 145.6 141.6 128.4 Poultry and eggs Eggs (millions) 2,998 3,278 3,515 2,707 2,596 2,156 1,880 Poultry (receipts of 5 principal markets, millions of pounds) 62.0 62.0 46.8 71.1 78.7 77.7 81.1 * Labor Force, Employment, December; Food Production, November. ,P Preliminary. N.A. Not Available. R Revised. t Transportation, construction, finance, service, and miscellaneous. W-13 % Change fighter for the Army, makes its bow in 1945 W-12R W-13. Still in the blueprint stage at FR Fireball 700 +3% Republic, Farmingdale, only 11 are sched- C-54 Skymaster 1,308 +3 uled for 1945. But if performance lives F8F Bearcat 1,875 +4 up to promise, it will be the best jet FG Corsair 2,162 +16 in the program-and schedules will ex- P-80 Shooting Star 688 +11 pand accordingly. All told, W-13 calls P-51 Mustang 8,716 +11 for some 1,400 jet-propelled planes in B-17 Flying Fortress 3,197 +14 1945, almost half of them P-80 Shooting P-63 Kingcobra 2,960 +17 Stars. There's a newcomer in the P-80 C-46 Commando 2,280 +25 program: North American, Kansas City, P-47 Thunderbolt 6,857 +28 has been teamed upwith Lockheed, Burbank. B-24 Liberator 4,713 +31 The jets will really begin to roll B-32 Dominator 789 -6 in 1946. More than 8,000 have been pro- SB2C Helldiver 2,310 -18 grammed by W-13. The production peak for C-47 Skytrain 2,043 -19 the P-80 alone has been set at 750 per PBY Catalina 427 -21 month-the second largest monthly rate TBY Seawolf 831 -38 for any single fighter plane. The record The P-84, a l-engined jet-propelled is 765 Mustangs last November. CONFIDENTIAL War Progress is loaned to you for official use. It contains CONFIDENTIAL information affecting the security of the United States. Revelation of its contents in any manner to unauthorized persons is prohibited by the Espionage Act. OFFICIAL RULES for its CUSTODY (1) Not to permit information from any copy in their custody to become available to anyone except a Government employee under their immediate supervision who will be bound by the restrictions hereby agreed to and who requires access to WAR PROGRESS in connection with his official duties. (2) To keep all copies in a securely locked container when not actually in use. (3) Not to incorporate information from WAR PROGRESS in any record unless the use of such record is restricted as if the record were itself a copy of WAR PROGRESS. (4) To give prior written notice of any change of address. (5) On written request, or before separation from the Govern- ment position which entitles them to receive WAR PRO- GRESS, to return all copies charged to their account. WAR PROGRESS Disclosure Punishable Under Espionage Act 5 3 = $191 1 STATE $1 1 and N NEW OF XL Economic Data Special Articles The President 1 WAR PROGRESS 6.7 Confidential War Produstion Disclosure Punishable Under Espionage Act Board E.O. 11862, Bee: 8(6) and (D) of (E) GALAISSVICED Commerce Dept. Letter, 11-16-78 By RHP, Date MAR 14 1973 The Tug of War for Textiles X4735 x355 Number 230 February 10, 1945 WAR PROGRESS Prepared in the War Production Board J.A. Krug, Chairman War Progress is a confidential report designed to provide a coordinated and continuing picture of the overall war, program for the various war agencies. To this end, it presents, analyzes, and interprets basic statistical and economic information, and from time to time examines the pros and cons of controversial questions. Although War Progress is an official publication of the War Production Board, statements in it are not to be construed as expressing official attitudes of the Board as a whole, or even of individual members. Conclusions, whenever reached, should be considered editorial conclusions. War Progress is prepared by the Reports Division (Joseph A. Livingston, Director). EDITORIAL STAFF Thomas A. Falco, Roy T. Frye (drafting), Winona Hibbard, A. R. Hilliard, Morris Katz, Chester L. Kieffer, Joseph A. Livingston (editor), Martha Menaker, J.S. Werking (pro- duction). This report contains CONFIDENTIAL information affecting the defense of the United States. See inside back cover for rules of custody. Firm GA-M-ED No. (2-8) UNITED STATES OF AMERICA R WAR PRODUCTION BOARD S- 79383 COURIER SERVICE CONTROL RECORD FROM: TO: STATISTICS DIVISION The President (DIVISION OR OFFICE INVISION OR OFFICE) RCS (NAME) (NAME) The White House ROOM NUMBER) BUILDING ROOM NUMBER) (BUSLDING) DESCRIPTION OF DOCUMENT MP 230 f1 3 COPY 3 THE BERIAL NUMBER IN THE UPPER RIGHT-HAND CORNER Addressee's Copy SHOULD BE IDENTICAL TO NUMBER ON SENDER'S RECEIPT are 10-47607-4 CONFIDENTIAL NUMBER 230 WAR PROGRESS FEBRUARY 10, 1945 The Tug of War for Textiles Greatly increased military requirements cut essential civilian heavy fabrics to pro- deeply into civilian supplies of essential duce duck substitute for tentage. fabrics. Upgroding of apparel, shortage of OCR allotments of cotton broad-woven low-end items result in 40%pricerise, fabrics for the second quarter are likely to be 20% below the previous wartime THE CIVILIAN textile supply is due to average (chart, page 3). Here it is reach its wartime low this year, pos- a case of rising military requi rements ing a basic problem in production-how versus diminished output. Over the past to get the types of garments most needed two years, cotton fabrics output has by and most essential to civilians. suffered fromlabor shortages-manufac- The impact of urgently needed pro- turers have not been able to compete grams this year is especially untimely. with higher-paying war industries: also Greatly increased military requirements most textiles are not classed as a de- for tentage, tarpaulins, clothing, powder ferred occupation. bags, etc. have cut deeply into civilian supplies of work clothing fabrica, sheet- WOOL, T00 ings, print cloth, sateen, and above all, Wool fabrica, too, have been hit by cotton duck. Moreover it has been nec- manpower shortages. This was not much essary to convert large numbers of looms of a problem last year, when military from the manufacture of denims and other requirements dropped: but this year THE WIDENING GAP IN LIVING COSTS Food prices, though higher than a year ago, are below the peok; but clothing prices have advanced steadily for more than two years. Result: living costs are up. ISO Food vs. Clothing 150 All Items 140 140 Food 130 130 INDEX- INDEX-1935-39-100 Clothing 120 120 INDEX-1935-39+100 no no 8 100 90 (94) 90 1942 1943 1944 1941 1942 1943 1944 - PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 2 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS troop needs have gone up unexpectedly of cotton and rayon fabrics between 1940 as battlefront requirements exceeded and today have actually averaged above all estimates. Estimated military needs the 1939 level, and wool has been only for 1945, at more than 200,000,000 yards, slightly below, with millions of sol- are up 45% over 1944, and civilian sup- diersno longer in the market for suits. plies of around 275,000,000 yards will In the face of this above-peacetime be the lowest since 1942, when the new supply, attempts to control distribution army was being outfitted. have received little support from the In rayon, too, fabric production is public, industry, and Congress. Indeed, declining. The conversion of facilities Congress during 1943 and 1944 specifi- to high-tenacit yarn for tire cord has cally forbade the Office of Price Ad- already caused a substantial drop, and ministration to set quality standards further inroads will result from a shift to match its price ceilings or to control of 50% of spun rayon facilities to the the sales policies of retail outlets. production of military cotton yarns. The estimated civilian share of rayon NO SALES RESISTANCE fabric, at 1,275,000,000 yards, is the However, the purchasing power of the lowest of the war. American public was rising to unprece- dented heights. nufacturers couldsell ADDED AGGRAVATION not only more expensive products but also This contraction in overall civilian a great variety. Almost anything of- supply threatens to aggravate (1) the fered at retail found a buyer. So manu- rising prices of fabrics and clothing facturers of both fabrics and garments, and (2) the growing shortage of essential in the interest of their profit-and- low- and medium-priced goods available loss accounts, tended to: to the public. 1. Upgrade their products, making Up to now these symptoms of scarcity them better or simply more expensive, have not been caused primarily by cuts to put them into higher price brackets in supply. Cotton fabric at its peak where the profits were greater. was 30% above the 1939 rate of output; 2. Transfer from standard products rayon, 25%; wool, 65%. Civilian supplies where ceiling prices were low into otherlines for which they could estab- lishnewprices or come under different IN THIS ISSUE: ceilings. THE TUG OF WAR FOR TEXTILES 1 HIGH AND SCARCE KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK 4 The net effect has been a general upgrading of merchandise and an acute ARMY TRAILERS RIDE TOWARD NEW PEAK 6 shortage of certain types of low-profit STOCK PRICES, TRADING AT WARTIME PEAK 8 goods-children's clothes, underwear, PLANES RUN INTO BAD WEATHER 9 piece goods. As & result, the retail price of American clothing-despite PAST-DUE STEEL ORDERS AT RECORD HIGH 11 ceilings-has gone up an average of 40% SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS 12 during the war years. REPORTS ON REPORTS For low-income families the cost has 12 been proportionately greater than for CONFIDENTIAL FEBRUARY 10, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL 3 middle-income families. When Mrs. Smith, American families with incomes less than in amiddle income bracket, buys a snow- $2,000 are now paying 50% more for most suit for her daughter she has to pay $10, of their clothing than they didin peace- say, instead of $7. But Mrs. Jones, who time and in the neighborhood of 100% used to pay $5, also pays $10 now be- more for many items, including both cause she can't find anything cheaper. women's and girl's dresses. A joint The price increase for her has been 100%, study by the Census Bureau and the War as compared to Mrs. Smith's 40%. Recent Production Board indicates that the studies indicate that the one-third of supply of dresses selling at under $2.25 LESS COTTON FOR CIVILIANS Here's the past and present picture of supply and allotments of broad-woven fabrics: 1942 1943 1944 1945 Quorterly Ist half 3rd 4th Ist 2nd Qtr. Averoge Qtr. Avg. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. (Est.) (MILLIONS OF LINEAR YARDS) MILITARY 500 650 463 586 634 643 700 INDUSTRIAL, ETC. 175 150 117 116 115 113 155 W.F.A. 273 340 320 296 312 299 275 EXPORTS 112 137 230 195 205 209 180 CIVILIAN (QGR.) 1,772 1,406 1,390 1,219 1,178 1,185 1,090 SUPPLY 2,832 2,683 2,520 2,412 2,444 2,449 2,400 % CIVILIAN 62.6% 52.4% 55.2% 50.5% 48.2% 48.4% 45.4% And here's how the second-quarter estimated supply will be distributed - 27% short of stated requirements: REQUIREMENTS APPROXIMATE ALLOTMENTS 2nd Quarter 1945 2nd Quarter 1945 Militory Militory O.C.R. Industrial O.C.R. etc. Industrial etc.) W.F.A. W.F.A. Export Export 3,300,000,000 Linear Yords 2,400,000,000 Lineor Yords WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 4 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK Lotest Previous Month Some Week Week Week Ago 1944 1943 1942 1941 Wor Program-checks poid (millions of dollars) 2,122 1,576 1,507 1,844 1,417 549 162 War bond soles- E, F,G (millions of dollars) 227 257 246 870 182 255 - Money in circulation (millions of dollars) 25,480' 25,290* 25,257 20,586 15,798 11,319 8,627 Wholesole prices (1926=100) All commodities 104.7 104.7 104.6 103.1 102.0 95.9 80.6 Form products 125.7 125.8 125.9 122.1 118.2 100.1 72.9 Foods 104.3 104.4 104.6 104.2 105.0 93.7 74.0 All other 99.3 99.3 99.1 98.0 96.4 94.5 84.2 Petroleum (000 borrels) Total U.S. stocks 404,784 407,376 417,833 417,352 440,320 495,988° 495,012' Total East Coost stocks". 58,979 59,987 64,400 56,762 46,415 75,305 83,897 East Coost receipts** 1,693 1,867 1,742 1,514 1,149 N.A. N.A. Bituminous cool production (000 short tons)" 1,947 1,993 1,662 2,108 1,867 1,896 1,694 Steel operations (% of capacity) 89.3% 90.15 93.0% 96.8% 99.5% 95.0% 96.9% Freight cars unlooded for exports, excluding groin Aflantic Coast ports 3,170 1,972 3,122 2,783 1,223 1,605 1,096 Gulf Coast ports 510 511 439 291 335 445 366 Pacific Coost ports 2,115 2,107 1,871 1,267 888 386 151 Department store soles (1935-39=100) 163' 161 145 137 126 125 96 Preliminary # Revised "Excludes militory-owned stocks E Estimated **Doily Average Not Avoilable "Unodjusted decreased by 70% during the single year tion Board field officers surveyed 28 of 1943, whereas output of dresses over representative cities and in one-third $6 increased 30%. of them were unable to find underwear of specific types and sizes in any of SHOPPING SAMPLE the stores. In November the Bureau of the Census Events in the textile industry during surveyed a representative sample of 615 the past four years are more than a retail stores in all parts of the country commentary on a current crisis. They to find how shoppers had fared during present a preview of the meaning of "full the month of October in their search for employment. Consumption has been out- essential dry goods. Results indicated running production, even when production that out of every 10 would-be purchasers held up. At the end of 1943 women were only three were successful in buying buying 10% more dresses than they had in wide sheeting, only five could get flan- 1939. Baby diapers provide a per capita nelette and cotton piece goods, only six instance. As the result of WPB action, could get bath towels, bed sheets, and supply has increased during the war years many types of children's underwear and from 24 yards per infant in 1939 to 34 sleeping equipment. Comparison of this yards in 1944. And yet diapers are one survey with one conducted in August of the shortest items in the stores. showed the situation getting worse: 65% Families are using diapers that never of the items had become scarcer, only 5% used them before. More people than ever more plentiful. In October, War Produc- can afford commercial diaper services, CONFIDENTIAL FEBRUARY 10, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL ... 5 which because of weekly deliveries in- stead of daily or every-other-day wash- TIGHTER AND TIGHTER day at home, need more diapers perinfant. Utilization of French and Belgian Output of broad-woven fabrics above textile mills will not offer any great prewar levels, but civilions get less. 15 15 relief in 1945. Any benefits from such Cotton (excludes tire cord) production will certainly go to increase the military allotment, which is even now 10% below stated requirements. IO 10 Therefore WPB and OPA are combining BILLIONS OF LINEAR YARDS Military, Export, forces in a program to roll back prices Industrial, etc. and obtain a larger proportion of es- sential products. Existing controls 5 5 BILLIONS OF LINEAR YARDS will be tightened: new ones will be in- stituted. Under a WPB order now being Civilion Use prepared, AA-4 ratings will be issued to garment manufacturers to obtain cloth o o for the production of medium- and low- 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 Est cost essentials in quantities propor- 2500 2500 tional to their output during aspecified Rayon base period. Converters will be re- quired to set aside a sufficient part 2000 2000 of their output to meet these rated Military and orders. As much as 75% of the fabric Export 1500 1500 available to civilians may thus be re- served for essential uses. 1000 1000 PRESSING DOWN PRICES Civilian Use At the same time, OPA will tackle the 500 500 price rises. Garment manufacturers will be required to reduce the average price of each category of their civilian pro- MILLIONS OF LINEAR YARDS 0 o 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 duction to the level of the base period. Est And upgrading of the final product will 600 600 Woolens and Worsteds MILLIONS OF LINEAR YARDS be discouraged by restrictions all along the line-to reduce the "overfinishing" Military and of cloth by converters, to prevent arti- Export ficial markups by wholesalers, to limit 400 400 the trimming and "overfancying" of the final product by garment shops. These savings will be reflected in the retail prices. Many of the staple items will 200 200 be preticketed by manufacturers with the Civilion Use prices at which they were made to sell. The big problem is to determine what items are essential, at what prices, and o o 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 in what quantities. Est WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 6 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS Army Trailers Ride Toward New Peak Program for '45-at $240,000,000-is 20% quarter with peaks scheduled for 1945: over '44 production. Toughest job is in 4th Qtr. 1945 Peak 20-ton front loader, which needs hydraulic 20-ton, front- mechanism,many heavy tires. loading 1 4,500 (3rd Q.) A-ton cargo. 5,870 33,800 (3rd Q.) SINCE SEPTEMBER, the 1945 program for 1-ton cargo 0 23,200 (4th Q.) Army truck trailers has almost doubled 1-ton water tank 550 3,150 (2nd Q.) and now stands at $240,000,000. This is 20% larger than last year's produc- The problem in the à-ton cargo, 1- tion and slightly above the peak in 1943. ton cargo, and 1-ton water tank is to Military trailers comprise nearly get new facilities or former facilities 10% of the Army's total automotive ve- back into production. When schedules hicle program and range in size from a were cut back early last year, many +-ton, two-wheel semitrailer pulled by plants turned to other war work. The a jeep, to a 60-ton capacity, full low- average cost is only about $300 and bed trailer. each uses only two passenger-car sized Although some of these trailers are tires. a van type similar to those used for commercial transport, a large number BIG TIRE PROBLEM are designed specifically as carriers Themost critical production problem of chemicals, bombs, tanks, ammunition, is in the Army engineers' new 20-ton gasoline, oil, water, bituminous mate- low-bed, front-loading semitrailerwith rial, etc. Still others are especially dolly (pulled by a 6-ton, 6 X 6 truck). equipped as laundries, laboratories, It is designed for hauling heavy ma- refrigerators, water purificationunits, chinery and equipment over rough ter- clothing repair, shoe repair, map re- rain and replaces the 20-ton, rear- production units, sterilizer and bath, loading type, of which 3,600 were pro- equipment repair shops, etc. duced last year-980 in the final quar- ter. The front-loading model hasa hy- CRITICAL FOUR draulic mechanism for lowering the front Recent boosts in requirements are end to form a ramp. Thus, it can be concentrated in four types of semitrail- loaded easier and faster than the rear- ers, as follows: loading type. This hydraulic mechanism 1945 Program is one of the limiting factors in pro- Sept. Today duction. However, tiresare the biggest problem. The new model has 17 wheels (units) 20-ton, front-loading 2,800 10,500 (eight in the rear, eight on the dolly, 4-ton cargo 24,000 84,000 and one spare), each requiring a 1400 1-ton cargo 20,000 50,000 X 20 high-flotation tire, which means 1-ton water tank 2,800 4,000 competition with heavy-heavy trucks. These tires are four feethigh and weigh The production job is indicated by nearly 250 pounds. a comparison of output in the fourth Alongwithtires, thechief shortages CONFIDENTIAL FEBRUARY 10, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL 7 are in wheels and rims. The wheels are delivered in the fourth quarter of last much heavier than those generally used year. The schedule for the first quar- on commercial trucks and trailers and ter of 1945 calls for less than half that require new or expanded facilities. To number because additional contracts provide the rims, the Firestone Tire & couldnot be placed in time to continue Rubber Company leased one of the build- the fourth-quarter rate of production. ings at the Corps of Engineers subdepot It will be nip and tuck to produce the at Cambridge, 0. After remodeling and 7,600 required by the Army in the first equipping, the plant will be ready for half. production in July. Some 700 workers The increase in the military program will be required. necessi tated a 20% reduction in commer- cial trailer allotments in the first half ANOTHER CALL FOR STEEL of this year; only 9,000 are to be pro- Heavy structural steel is needed for duced, as against 11,250 authorized last the trailer frame. This, together with September. The Truck TrailerManufactur- the additional steel required for wheels, ers Industry Advisory Committee says this rims, and axles, will increase the tight- won't be enough to meet essential civil- ness in bar, tube, strip, and plate ian transportation needs. stocks. Production of commercial ighway The situation is critical in the 10- trailers reached an all-time high of 50,- ton, two-wheel, stake-and-platform semi- 000 in 1941. In 1942, the War Production trailer for an entirely di fferent reason. Board's limitation orders went into This type has been used extensively to effect and only 8,400 commercial trailers carry supplies over the Red Ball express were built. However, last year's de- ghway in France. More than 6,700 were liveries amounted to 24,000. Today there DOWNS AND UPS IN TRUCK TRAILERS This was produced in 1943: This, in 1944: This is what was programmed for 1945 last September: This is the December, 1944, annual production rate: Now, output must rise 11% over Dec. rate to meet 1945 program: o 50 100 150 200 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 8 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS STOCK PRICES, TRADING AT WARTIME PEAK Wall Street activity dropped steadily from fall of France to Corregidor. Trading has perked up since. 100 125 Germons invode 80 Holland a Belgium Lend-lease enocted Germons invode Russio Germons invode Norway Peorl Harbor Corregidor surrenders U.S. Morines invode Solomons Allies land in North Africa Casablanco Conference Allies take Noples Teheron Conference Luzon londings D-Day Singapore surrenders 100 Siege of Stolingrod MILLIONS OF SHARES SOLD 60 B Denmark Allies invode Sicily Russions recopture Khorkov Allies land of Anzio Poris liberated Invasion of Philippines Bottle of the Buige Russion winter drive 75 Dunkirk,Fall of France STOCK PRICES 40 50 COMMON STOCK PRICES-1935-39=100 SHARES SOLD 20 25 o o 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 WAR PROGRESS are some 175,000 general freighttrailers tain that their prewar restrictions are (over five tons) operating over the necessary for the preservation of roads nation's highways. and bridges. Then too, there isopposi- Most of the trailers produced during tion from the railroads. Thus, the the war exceeded highway specifications value of investments of truck operators in three-fourths of the states. This in oversized trailers depends on state poses a problem. Most states had re- legislatures. stricted weight to about 30,000 pounds; Kentucky, an extreme case, to 18,000 POSTWAR MARKET pounds. In 1942, as an emergency meas- Similarly with the Army-Navy invest- ure to permit the free flow of heavy ments in military trailers. Military munitions andwar machinery, all of the vehicles have been built to operate over states adopted a standard, allowing a the worst terrain and are designed to gross weight of at least 40,000 pounds, a stand upunder rough treatment. Conse- length of 45 feet (truck and trailer quently they aremuch heavier than stand- combined), and an 18,000-pound limitper ard commercial vehicles. Thus, the ex- axle. Much heavier loads are temporarily tent to which there will be a market permitted in some states. for surplus military trailers will de- Bills seeking to extend wartime reg- pend in part upon highway restrictions, ulations into peacetime were introduced in part on their operating costs and in the various state legislatures in suitability. 1943. Favorable action was taken by Some of the military trailers may only 10. Officials inmany states main- prove impractical commercially, but CONFIDENTIAL FEBRUARY 10, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL 9 most, through modification, should find may find a role as & transporter of steam some use, either on the highway or off, shovels. And the &-ton cargo trailer, in logging, mining, farming, construction, nowpulled by a jeep, should be ideal for etc. The tank transporter, for example, the farmer about as it stands. Planes Run Into Bad Weather Result: Increased absenteeism, deferred test- bomber output came to 228, or 7 planes ing,and January output was 4% below W-13, below schedule. though 1% over December. But Superforts For the first time in two years, pa- beat schedule for third month in row. trol bombers as a group met schedule. To be sure, W-13 reduced the patrol- AT 72,225,000 pounds-6, 532 planes- bomber schedule for feasibility, but January plane production was 1% over last month's improvement was real, run- the preceding month and 4% short of the ning 10% over December in rframe wei ght. increased W-13 schedule. As with most In the 4-engined class, 65 PB4Y-2 Pri- industrial production, bad weather was vateers came through-on the target. a factor; it interfered with flight Among 2-engined types (PBM Mariners, testing and increased worker absentee- PV-2 Harpoons, PBY Catalinas, etc.), ism. Also, therewere the usual change- acceptances came to 153 planes, or one over complications. more than forecast. For the third month in a row, the Among major combat groups, light B-29 Superfortress beat schedule; 221 bombers made the poorest showing against were accepted as compared with a sched- schedule, and fighters were next (air- ule of 215. Boeing, Renton, whose sched- frame-weight basis): ule calls for sharp increases was the January Acceptances only Superfort plant to miss the mark. as % of Although it came through with 50 planes, Dec. W-13 15 more than in December, output was All military planes. 101% 96% still ю planes short. The War Manpower Army procured 102 96 Commission's drive to get more labor Navy procured 100 95 for this plant through interregional Combat planes 100 96 recruitment is apparently clicking. Superbombers 114 98 However, it looks as if the Renton sched- Forts&Liberators. 96 100 ule is too steep to handle; this month's Patrol bombers 110 100 goal is 85 planes. Medium bombers 107 105 Light bombers 99 85 SEVEN SUPERS SHORT Fighters (incl. At Consolidated Vultee, Ft. Worth, reconn. 93 93 the scheduled number of B-32 Dominators Transports 110 96 -20 planes-was produced. But because Trainers 84 103 modifications were necessary, only seven Communications 92 91 were accepted. One Dominator was slated at Consolidated's San Diego plant, but Forts and Liberators were right on it didn't come through. Reflecting the schedule with 746 planes-319 Flying 13-planemiss in the B-32, total super- Fortresses and 427 Liberators. This is CONFIDENTIAL 10 ... CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS about half the peak of 1,508 planes along as fast as anticipated. (578 Forts, 930 Liberators) last March. 4. At 56 planes, acceptances of the Repeating December's experience, C-54 Skymaster transport mi ssed W-13 by last month's deficit from schedule was 11 planes. The Douglas plant at Chicago centered in a handful of models: was only one plane shy of schedule (45 1. In the A-26 Invader light bomber, versus 46). The real miss came at Doug- Douglasat Tulsa was hit by bad weather, las, Santa Monica-the first at that reworking of engines, and change-over plant inmore than & year. Last month, problems on the new cockpit canopy. Santa Monica began to work on the C-54E, Acceptances of 60 planes fell far short a personnel version of the Skymaster. of the 149 goal. As a result, total In- vader output (160 planes) wound up with BETTER DECEMBER, SCHEDULE a 36% deficit. Navy light bombers reversed their 2. In the Corsair Navy fighter, it recent trend and went over schedule was bad weather plus a model change- in January for the first time in two over at Chance Vought, Stratford: it months. Output of 663 planes was 1% was all weather at Goodyear Akron. Re- over December and 2% better than called sult: acceptances of 220 Corsairs were for. At General Motors' Eastern Air- 29% behind December, 39% below schedule. craft Division, Trenton, the TBM Avenger 3. At Republic, Farmingdale, only ran 10 planes over its slate of 340; 125 P-47N Thunderbolts were accepted as this will help to offset the expected against 211 scheduled. Production of shortage of torpedo bombers in the first new wings for this model is not coming six months this year. At Consolidated PATROL BOMBERS RISE RAPIDLY In June production was at the lowest point since January, 1943. But last month it was up to the all-time high, ahead of the first-of-month schedule. 6 6 AIRFRAME WEIGHT 4 4 MILLIONS OF POUNDS First-of-Month Schedule* Actual MILLIONS OF POUNDS 2 2 o o J F M A M J J A 5 o N D J F M A M J J A 5 o N D J F M A M J J A 5 o N D 1943 1944 1945 First d-month schedule through January, 1945, January I thereofter. Note: Potrol bombers include PB4Y-2 Privateer, PBY (PBN,PB28, OA-IOA) Catalina, PV-2 Herpoon, PBM Moriner, etc. was PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL FEBRUARY 10, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL ... PAST-DUE STEEL ORDERS AT RECORD HIGH As bad weather cuts into production. 2500 2500 % of Steel Copacity IOO 100 Role of Production 2000 2000 90 90 Beginning of Week CARBON STEEL-THOUSANDS OF TONS BO 80 4 = IB 25 2 8 is 22 29 5 1500 1500 Dec. Jon Feb 1000 1000 CARBON STEEL-THOUSANDS OF TONS Carbon Steel, Post-Due Orders Beginning of Quorter 500 500 o o 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr ist Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr. ist Qte 2nd Qtr Est. 1943 1944 1945 WAR PROGRESS Vultee, Allentown, the TBY Seawolf-the cat is another of the Grumman "Cat" torpedo bomber the Navy is waiting for series and will eventually supplant -had its best month to date, with eight the F6F Hellcat as the Navy's standard acceptances. However, these represented carrier-based fighter. planes held over from previous months. FIRST FOR FIREBALL It was the other way around on the Army's P-80 Shooting Star at Lockheed, Over at San Diego, Ryan Aeronautical Burbank. Although none of the five managed to get out its first regular ac- scheduled was accepted, they were all ceptances of the FR Fireball: four came shop-completed. These five planes will off the line, one less than scheduled. probably be reflected in the February The Fireball is the jet-propelled fighter acceptance total. that the Navy is grooming for the Pa- cific, and extensive flight testing of MUSTANG RACES experimental models has been under way At 857 planes, the P-51 Mustang ran for several months. high, wide, and handsome last month. At long last, our own jet bombs have North American at Inglewood ran 19% begun to roll: 28 JB-2s-an American ahead of December and 8% ahead of sched- version of the V-1 robot bomb-were ac- ule with 571 Mustangs. The other pro- cepted at Republic, Farmingdale. Like ducer, North American at Dallas, was 4% gliders and parachutes, the JB-2 is con- ahead of schedule with 286 Mustangs. sidered an aircraft item rather than an Two experimental F8F Bearcats came airplane: hence it is not counted in through at Grumman, Bethpage. The Bear- the monthly tally of plane acceptances. CONFIDENTIAL 12 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS Federal Finance-Cost of Living-Labor Disputes-Wage Earners Some Month Latest Preceding 2 Months Month" Month Ago 1943 1942 1941 1939 FEDERAL FINANCE (GENERAL FUND) Expenditures-Toto (millions of dollars) 8,202 8,416 7,828 6,372 2,628 1,111 656 War, 7,551 7,503 7,401 5,947 2,104 589 106 Nonwor 651 913 427 425 524 522 550 Revenues - Total 3,556 5,416 2,240 788 578 340 271 Income Taxes 2,422 4,347 1,500 306 133 63 49 Other revenues 1,134 1,069 740 482 445 277 222 Wor bond soles 1,074 2,386 1,023 1,240 1,061 N.A. N.A. "E" 804 1,855 807 815 667 "F"ond"G". 270 531 216 425 394 Wor be .₫ redemptions 333 359 376 56 4 E 306 334 354 50 3 "F"ond "G". 27 25 22 6 1 Net debt (billions of dollars). 212.8 209.9 205.2 103.3 507.6 N.A. N.A. COST OF LIVING All Items (1935-39=100) 127.0 126.6* 126.5 124.4 120.4 110.5 99.6 Foods 137.4 136.5 136.4 137.1 132.7 113.1 94.9 Other than foods 121.6 121.4" 121.3 117.7 113.6 109.2 101.9 LABOR DISPUTES Number of strikes in progress 350 425 490 395 169 287 222 Workers involved (thousands) 105 220 225 274 62 59 37 Number of strikes beginning during month 280 375 440 355 147 143 106 Workers involved (thousands) 85 200 220 263 59 30 12 Man-days idle (thousands) 380 710 690 787 193 476 384 NUMBER OF WAGE EARNERS (thousands) All manufacturing 12,638 12,573 12,656 13,878 13,474 11,557 8,763 Durable 7,444 7,399 7,463 8,403 7,780 6,084 4,080 Nonduroble 5,194 5,174* 5,193 5,475 5,694 5,473 4,683 "Federal Finance, January, all other December. Preliminary. Not Available. Tunodjusted. Revised. REPORTS ON REPORTS icans consider war bonds a good invest- ment. However, correspondents for the From Bikes to Bullets Office of War Information report occa- Operations of the Bicycle Industry sional rumors that the bonds may be re- During the Third Quarter 1944 (confi- pudiated or devaluated. And resistance dential; pp. 3) reports that shipments to compulsory pay-roll deductions for rose 3% over the second quarter and were bonds seems to have risen-only 38% of only 2% below the production peak at- the people interviewed in a recent Gal- tained during the third quarter of 1943. lup poll approved a 10% mandatory bond Ammunition made up 36% of all shipments; deduction, whereas in May, 1943, a de- guns and fire control equipment, 17%. duction of 15% was approved by 52% of The backlog of orders at the end of the those interviewed. third quarter, 1944. was the lowest (Office of War Information, Bureau of since mid-1942. Special Services) (War Production Board, Bureau of Pro- [This record is an attempt to select from the many gram and Statistics) documents coming to the attention of WAR PROGRESS those studies which would be of most interest to War Bonds readers. The list isby nomeana comprehensive, and no attempt has been made to evaluate reports for Current Opinions (restricted; pp. 5) accuracy. Whether reports areavailable depends on states that nine out of every 10 Amer- the policy of each individual agency. CONFIDENTIAL War Progress is loaned to you for official use. It contains CONFIDENTIAL information affecting the security of the United States. Revelation of its contents in any manner to unauthorized persons is prohibited by the Espionage Act. OFFICIAL RULES for its CUSTODY (1) Not to permit information from any copy in their custody to become available to anyone except a Government employee under their immediate supervision who will be bound by the restrictions hereby agreed to and who requires access to WAR PROGRESS in connection with his official duties. (2) To keep all copies in a securely locked container when not actually in use. (3) Not to incorporate information from WAR PROGRESS in any record unless the use of such record is restricted as if the record were itself a copy of WAR PROGRESS. (4) To give prior written notice of any change of address. (5) On written request, or before separation from the Govern- ment position which entitles them to receive WAR PRO- GRESS, to return all copies charged to their account. WAR PROGRESS Confidential Disclosure Punishable Under Espionage Act DECT - of (i) 300 MAR 14 1973 Economic Data Special Articles The President 1 6.7. WAR PROGRESS Nov Production Board Confidential Disclosure Punishable Under Espionage Act Higher Target for High-Octane 5(D) de (E) E.O. Commerce Dept. X 4735 By KHP, Date MAR 1 4 1973 x 56-B Number 231 February 17,1945 WAR PROGRESS Prepared in the War Production Board J. A. Krug, Chairman War Progress is a confidential report designed to provide a coordinated and continuing picture of the overall war program for the various war agencies. To this end, it presents, analyzes, and interprets basic statistical and economic information, and from time to time examines the pros and cons of controversial questions. Although War Progress is an official publication of the War Production Board, statements in it are not to be construed as expressing official attitudes of the Board as a whole, or even of individual members. Conclusions, whenever reached, should be considered editorial conclusions. War Progress is prepared by the Reports Division (Joseph A. Livingston, Director). EDITORIAL STAFF Thomas A. Falco, Roy T. Frye (drafting), Winona Hibbard. A. R. Hilliard, Morris Katz, Chester L Kieffer, Joseph A. Livingston (editor), Martha Menaker, J.S. Werking (pro- duction). This report contains CONFIDENTIAL information affecting the defense of the United States. See inside back cover for rules of custody. Para GA-M-SD (1-05-40 UNITED STATES OF AMERICA No. R WAR PRODUCTION BOARD COURIER SERVICE CONTROL RECORD S- 86500 FROM: TO: STATISTICS DIVISION The President CONVISION OR OFFICE (DIVISION OR OFFICE) RCS (NAME) (NAME) The White House (ROOM NUMBER) BUILDING (ROOM NUMBER) (BUILDING) DESCRIPTION OF DOCUMENT MP 281 #1 3 COPY 3 Addressee's Copy THE SERIAL NUMBER IN THE UPPER RIGHT-HAND CORNER SHOULD BE IDENTICAL TO NUMBER ON SENDER'S RECEIPT OFQ 10-07827-0 CONFIDENTIAL NUMBER 231 WAR PROGRESS FEBRUARY 17, 1945 Higher Target for High-Octane Goal of 693,000 barrels per day of aviation This isn't the first time that the gasoline by mid-1946 will be tough to hit industry has been faced with the problem Refining ingenuity, new facilities have of boosting quality. Planes are con- hiked output 800% in three years. stantly being called on to fly higher, farther, faster, and to carry heavier AVIATION GASOLINE is the perfect example bomb loads. However, as more and more of unceasing, increasing demand for planes come off production lines, as quality in & war material. Today, the more and more missions are flown, gal- Uni Nations have & new and more power- lonage requirements have increased, thus ful gasoline for airplanes. It is called putting 8 double load on refineries-in- "superfuel" and is rated 115/145-which creased quantity plus increased quality. means it has a lean-mixture rating of 115, & rich-mixture rating of 145. As MOVABLE TARGETS compared with the present combat speci- Back in January, 1942, the "ultimate" fication (100/130), it increases a bomb- operational requirement for aviation er's range and bomb load by 15%. More- gasoline was 150,000 barrels & day: a over, it shortens take-off distance and few months later it was up to 200,000 delivers an extra burst of power in the barrels, then 400,000 barrels, and 80 pinches-in climbing, diving, etc. on. As recently as November, 1944, when With a record number of fighters, production averaged 520,000 barrels & bombers, and transports in the air, day, the target was set at 612,000 bar- consumption of high-octane gasoline is rels daily by the middle of 1946. Now, running at an all-timehigh. Superfuel, with output within sight of that level, because it puts an overload on blend- the industry has been asked to shoot ing-agent capacity, would automatically for 693,000 barrels. decrease aggregate output. So its use This requirement does not provide has to be confined to experimental ap- for the accumulation of reserves; nor plications. does it provide explicitly for losses due to enemy action such as sinkings, RECIPE FOR MIGH-OCTANE sabotage, and bombings of air bases. The manufacture of one barrel of The overall goal is to maintain at least 100/130 aviation gasoline is basically & four months' supply. But currently a matter of mixing about 60% of base reported stocks of about 18,000,000 bar- stock (straight-run and cracked gaso- rels are equivalent to little more than lines) with 40% of alkylate and other & month's supply at the present rate of blending agents, then adding 4.6 milli- consumption. Moreover, these stocks are liters of tetraethyl lead per gallon geographically unbalanced; some areas to increase antiknock value. To make are short, others have a surplus. one barrel of superfuel, the proportion Ever since the war began, demand of alkylate and other blending agents has consistently outpaced the new sup- must almost double. ply of combat-standard aviation "gas." CONFIDENTIAL 2 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS This year, for example, production of veloped newmaterials and new processing high-octane gasoline by the United Na- techniques. tions (U.S., United Kingdom, Netherland In the middle of 1942, when the spec- West Indies, Persian Gulf, etc.) is ex- ification foraviation gasoline was hiked pected to average 580,000 barrels per up to 100/125, there was a stockpile of calendar day. But the latest estimate benzol available to make cumene, a newly of United Nations requirements for 1945 developed blending agent. Also, some is 639,000 barrels, thus indicating an of the industry's refinery equipment average deficit of 59,000 barrels a day. was idle because of the cutback in motor gasoline for civilians; similarly with DEFICIT, BUT NO DELAY facilities for producing codimer (pro- But deficits have not grounded planes. nounced ko-dye-mer). When the ammuni- Gaps have always been filled with lower- tion program was cut back, toluene, still than-combat-standard fuels, such as another blender, became available. 91/96, for trainer planes and for oper- ational flights within the Continental REFINERS TINKER United States. The supply-demand posi- That wasn'tall. Catalytic cracking tion since 1941 follows: units were converted from motor gaso- Average Per. Calendar Day line to the production of high-octane Year Prod, Regs. Def. base stocks and refinery gases for 1000 bbls., combat-standard) further processing into blending agents. 1942 100 126 26 The allowable amount of tetraethyl lead 1943 206 275 69 was increased. And then the refiners 1944.... 449 500 51 tinkered. They put a heat exchanger 1945 580 639 59 here, a refrigeration unit there, they redesigned some piping at this point, Raising output from 100,000 barrels switched fractionating towers at that. a day to 449,000 barrels was only pos- Not only did these measures offset sible because there was some slack in the limiting influence of quality in- the economy and because refiners de- creases, they also made it possible to expand production immediately instead of waiting fornew plants to be built- IN THIS ISSUE: a matter of nine to 18 months. When the war began, about 25 refineries in HIGHER TARGET FOR HIGH-OCTANE the Nations (mostly in the U.S.) 1 were making aviation gasoline, andtheir "WHISPER SHIPS* SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES combined production then wouldn't even 4 fuel the trainer-plane program today. LEND-LEASE IN THE INVASION YEAR 7 47% FOR INGENUITY KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK 9 Between January, 1942, and December, 1944, average daily output of aviation SOOT FOR RUBBER 10 gasoline by the United Nations increased more than 800%-from an estimated 60,- SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS 12 000 barrels to 550,000 barrels. Yet fully 47% of the increase came from CONFIDENTIAL FEBRUARY 17, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL ... 3 FUEL FOR ALLIED PLANES United Notions production of high-grode aviation gasoline has risen more than 800% since January, 1942- and must go still higher. BOO 800 Operational Requirements 600 600 THOUSANDS OF BARRELS-DAILY AVERAGE Actual Production 400 400 THOUSANDS OF BARRELS-DAILY AVERAGE 200 200 100/130 100/125 100 Octone o o JFMAMJ JASONOJFMAMJJ ASONDJ F MAMJ JASOND J FMAM J JASOND 1942 1943 1944 est 1945 WAR PROGRESS technological improvements, etc.-in Despite the prevailing specifica- short, from "refinery ingenuity": tion for high-octane, each refinery con- tributing to the program is assigned a % of Total blend that would make the best use of Method Increase Use of cumene its equipment and components: this "max- 12% imum output" blend for a given producer Mechanical improvements 9 Use of codimer might rate 98/140. Then some other pro- 6 ducer ships him the blending agents nec- Conversion of catalytic crackers 7 Increased use of lead essary to bring his end-product to stand- 8 ard, say 100/130. Use of toluene & other blenders. 5 Magnolia Petroleum's Beaumont (Tex.) Total 47% refinery might send surplus alkylate to The remaining 53% came from new con- Sun Oil at Marcus Hook, Pa.: or excess struction and equipment (amounting to isopentane at Phillips Petroleum, Kansas about $900,000,000). City, Kan., might be shipped to Shell Tied in with the story of refinery Oil, Wilmington, Calif. In addition, ingenuity is the Planned Blending Pro- the Planned Blending Program sets up gram, which the Petroleum Administra- four centrally located hydrogenation tion for War got under way in the fall plants for processing the "unsaturated" of 1942. The idea is to treat the United (hydrogen-hungry) codimer being produced States as one vast refinery, then op- in refineries all over the country. The erate it at maximum efficiency. finished product, hydrocodimer, is either CONFIDENTIAL 4 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS consumed on the spot or-as with other a stop fora long time, and many plants blending agents-shipped where needed. must shut down for what the industry Despite the fact that the aviation calls "cleanout" or "turmaround-clean- gasoline program is now in its fourth ing of heat exchangers and piping, re- year, the latest hike in requirements lining of vessels, instrumentation, will be just as tough-if not tougher- (adjusting of control instruments), etc. to make than those of earlier years. Not only are maintenance workers scarce, The supply of benzene for cumene is they are often inexperienced, thus in- close to exhaustion: toluene is now creasing the cleanout period. needed for explosives: the rubber pro- Meanwhile, a brand new building pro- gram is competing more strongly than gram has recently been approved (WP- ever for butylenes (refinery gases for Feb3'45,p6). It represents one more making alkylate, the volume blender in attempt to catch upwith a demand which, high-octane). Also, refinery equipment it appears, will continue to outpace has been running at full blast without supply while the two-front war continues. "Whisper Ships" Speak for Themselves Glider has repeatedly proved itself as person- On the night of July 9, 1943, in nel, materiel carrier. Pickup system now Sicily, it landed American troops, how- increases use, prolongs life. Program itzers, and jeeps in strategic spots, for 45 is consistently revised upward. where the work they did shortened the campaigr gn by a full week, in the judgment GLIDER production is scheduled to reach of General Montgomery. a new high this year: 7,863 ships, as On the night of March 5, 1944, in compared to 1,610 in 1942, a peak of Burma, 200 miles behind enemy lines, it 6,300 in 1943, and 4,435 in 1944. The landed engineers, bulldozers, scrapers, reason for this stepup is that the "whis- tractors, jeeps, pack mules, and all per ship" has repeatedly proved it can equipment for quick construction of an do things in warfare that nothing else airfield. It was in full operation and can do. heavily defended by the time the Japs In May, 1940, the Germans mysteriously discovered it a week later. And on D reduced the formidable Belgian fortress Day, in Normandy, itlanded whole divi- of Eben Emael by landing demolition en- sions of troops with artillery, trans- gineers and their equi pment. in and around port vehicles, and tanks in spots pre- the walls by glider during the night. cisely chosen for the sealing off of the This operation illustrates the tactical invasion beachhead. significance of the glider: it isa large flying container that can deposit its AIR SERVICE STATIONS load in places otherwise inaccessible- And the glider ismore than an assault accurately, silently, and, if need be, weapon; given an open field, a single in the dark. ship can land a ton and a half of sup- In May, 1941, in Crete, it landed the pliesatany advance base-or it can be German assault troops who spearheaded fitted out completely as a fieldkitchen, the successful aerial invasion of that first-aid station, repairshop, weather island. station, etc. This versatile aircraft CONFIDENTIAL FEBRUARY 17. 1945 CONFIDENTIAL 5 is slated toplay an increasingly impor- gliders, summoned by radio, landed on a tant part in all of the war theaters from river bank with boats and outboard motors here on. needed by a raiding party. They were Clearly, the glider is expendable in retrieved from the jungle by planes that many ofits typical operations, and this never touched the ground. is reason Number 2 for the high 1945 This pickup system can do more than requirements. Many are cracked up land- simply save gliders; it can provide ing in the dark and on difficult terrain; superefficient transport. Picture a many never have a chance of being re- supply depot and an advance base, 50 trieved from the places their missions miles apart and both equipped with glid- take them to. At Arnhem in the Nether- ers. A plane, snatching up a glider lands in late September, more than 1,000 loaded with supplies at the depot, could were lost when ground forces never suc- drop it at the advance base, and then ceeded in fighting through to the air circle to pick up a glider loaded with army that had been landed. wounded or with prisoners for return to the depot. In this manner a C-47 Sky- PICKUP BY PLANE train-the planeusually used for glider But a glider need no longer be wri tten work-on one filling of gas could deliver off just because no airfield is handy to 40,000 pounds of cargo in each direction the spot where it has landed. A plane in a few hours. in flight can snatch it off the ground Every time the 1945 glider program at the end of its elastic nylon towline- has been revi sed ithas been sharply in- empty or loaded. Recently in Burma two creased: the current W-13 objective. GLIDER SCHEDULES - UP AGAIN Need to replace Arnhem losses and increase squadrons results in sharply rising program. 800 800 600 600 NUMBER OF GLIDERS W-13 Schedule 400 400 Actual Production NUMBER OF GLIDERS 200 200 o o J F M A M J J A $ o N D J F M A M J J A 5 o N 0 J F M A M J J A 5 o N D J F M A M J J A 5 o N D 1942 1943 1944 1945 WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 6 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS effective January 18, is 7,000 greater standardized and is unlikely to change. than W-11 of July 13, 1944, and -2,500 Materials will be obtained because the above W-12, November 9. So anxious are quantities of wood, steel, tubing, and the Army Air Forces now to step up pro- fabric required are relatively small. duction that they are concentrating en- And as for manpower and facilities, the tirely on one model, the standard 15- industry has more than once demonstrated place CG-4A. The 30-place CG-13A and its ability to expand and contract rap- Navy's LBP and LBE are temporarily going idly with the fluctuations of military out of production to make way for it. requirements. This flexibility of the glider indus- NO PLAYTHING try is a heritage from the early days of A glider is considerably more than a the war when it was aircraft's stepchild. couple of sticks of wood glued together. In 1942, gliders were wanted, but air- The CG-4A has 70,000 parts and costs planes were utterly essential. Early around $20,000. Its fuselage is of tu- glider contracts issued by the Army ex- bular steel and plywood, its wings of pressly stipulated that no workers were wood and plywood; and it is fabric cov- to be hired from aircraft factories and ered over all. Wing span is 84 feet, that only the least critical materials weight 3,800 pounds. It carries 15 fully were to be used. The contracts were equipped troops, six men and a jeep, or placed in locations where they would equivalent cargo. Its nylon towline, 350 interfere least with other war work. feet long and one inch thick, is the The industry had low priorities: few equivalent of 1,620 pairs of women's specialized tools could be obtained. stockings. The CG-4A was designed in 90 days, SMALL-PLANT INDUSTRY early in 1942, by the AAF at Wright Field The glider industry grew up, there- and the Waco Aircraft Company of Troy, O. fore, in numerous small plants that were The original design was changed more than able to adapt their peacetime tools and 7,000 times, but by the end of the year skills to this wartime job-manufacturers 804 had been accepted and production of furniture, pianos, showcases, ladders, averaged 160 month. From there, out- billiard tables, etc. Subcontracting put rocketed to 672 in July, 1943. For runs high-over 30% for the industry as almost a year thereafter it averaged over a whole. Sufficient plant capacity 500 a month. Beginning in May, 1944, the exists to make the operation of a third program was cut back sharply because of shift unnecessary, and increased output, large reserve stocks, and by August pro- when called for by the services, has duction was below 140. The November 9 usually been obtained by adding workers revision of the schedule, subsequent to to the second shift and by advancing the Arnhem losses, again called for sharp hours worked per week. increases: and by the year's end the At present there are six prime con- rate of output was close to 200 per tractors in production, employing 14,- month. In January 285 were produced. 000. The new high demands will neces- Now W-13 calls for & steady climb to 793 sitate the addition of four contractors per month in October and thereafter-18% and an estimated 5,000 to 6,000 workers. above the previous peak of July, 1943 But since most of the plants are in free There is every reason to believe that labor areas, little difficulty is antic- the new schedule will be met. Design is ipated in getting them. CONFIDENTIAL FEBRUARY 17, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL 7 Lend-Lease in the Invasion Year Pre-D Day peok of exports roised 44 total to equipment and supplies and petroleum $1,100,000,000-ahead of '43 by 10%. products) accounted for 29%, food and Goods shipped, services since March, '41, other agricultural products for 15%. amount to nearly $32,000,000,000. Dollar value of shipments follow: % LEND-LEASE EXPORTS last year came to 1944 1943 Change $11,100,000,000, an all-time high-10% (millions) ahead of 1943. Combat munitions. $6,195 $5,820 +6% From inception in March, 1941, lend- Ordnance 1,270 1,550 -18 lease hipments of munitions, industrial Aircraft 2,710 1,980 +37 products, food and other agricultural Tanks, other veh. 2,030 2,000 +2 products to the United Nations amounted Watercraft* 185 295 -37 to almost $27,000,000,000. In addition, Agric. prod. 1,705 1,815 -6 approximately $800,000,000 in goods has Industrial prod. 3,220 2,470 +30 been consigned to U.S. commanding gen- Total $11,120 $10,105 +10% erals for subsequent transfer in the Excludes ships on bare-boat charter, field to lend-lease countries, andnearly title to which is retained by the U.S. $4,000,000,000 in aid has gone to the Two-thirds--$4,200,000,000-of the Allies in the form of services, such as combat-munitions exports in 1944 went rental of ships, servicing andrepair of to the British Empire. This added about ships, ferrying of aircraft, etc. Thus one-third to the Empire's ownproduction. the grand total of goods shipped and Over the past three years, lend-lease services rendered isnearly $32,000,000, has added about one-fourth to the Em- 000. And another $4,000,000,000 in goods has been transferred-but not exported. Lend-lease shipments reached a peak LEND-LEASE TO DATE in the second quarter-just before the March 1941-December 1944 Normandy invasion. Some $3,100,000,000 in munitions and supplies went abroad- nearly half to the United Kingdom (WP- All Other Aug19'44,p8). The fourth-quarter total 63 was only $2,475,000,000-this in spite of the increasing tempo of fighting on U.S.S.R. all fronts. More munitions and supplies 29% are going direct to U.S. troops. British Empire 653 Although total lend-lease shipments last year were greater than in 1943, & slightly smaller proportion of U.S. com- bat-munitions production went to the Allies-12%, as against 13% the previous year. $ 26,900,000,000 Combat munitions constituted 56% of last year's lend-lease shipments; indus- trial products including othermilitary WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 8 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS LEND-LEASE SUMMARY I. Shipments have continued down from the second-quarter peak. Lend-Lease - By Country Lend-Lease- By Commodity 3 3 All Other Industrial and Other U.S.S.R 2 2 Agricultural Products I I British Combat Empire Munitions BILLIONS OF DOLLARS o o IQ 2Q 3Q 4Q. 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q IQ 2Q 3Q 4Q IQ 2Q 3Q 4Q IQ 2Q 3Q 4Q IQ 2Q 3Q 4Q 1942 1943 1944 1942 1943 1944 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2. The recent trend is away from combat munitions. Lend-Leose to British Empire Lend-Leose to U.S.S.R. 2 2 Industrial and Other Agri. Prod I I Agricultural Products Industrial Combot and Other Munitions Combot Munitions o o IQ 2Q 3Q 4Q IQ 2Q 3Q 4Q IQ 2Q 3Q 4Q IQ 20 3Q 40 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q IQ 2Q 3Q 4Q 1942 1943 1944 1942 1943 1944 3. Even so, Lend-Lease has added about 10% to Russian, 25% to British production. Russion Production British Empire Production 100% 100% Lend-Lease Lend-Lease 25% 10% Combat Munitions- 1942-1944 Combat Munitions- 1942-1944 WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL FEBRUARY 17, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL 9 pire's production of combat munitions. production. The $1,500,000,000 in com- The United Kingdom retained its po- bat munitions sent to Russia last year sition as the largest recipient flend- is estimated at about 10% of theU.S.S.R. lease, receiving nearly $5,000,000,000, output of combat munitions in 1944. How- or 44% of total shipments, as compared ever, the Soviet leans heavily upon the to $4,000,000,000, or 41%,in 1943. How- United States for automotive equipment. ever, exports to the U.K. declined from Vehicles constituted nearly half of the a peak of nearly $1,500,000,000 in the munitions sent to theU.S.S.R. last year. second quarter to $1,000,000,000 in the All told, more than 345,000 motor trucks fourth quarter, accounting for the bulk and 30,000 motorcycles have been lend- of the total lend-lease decline. There leased to the Soviet. was a shift toward more munitions: 57% Industrial products constituted two- in 1944, as against 47% in 1943 and 31% fifths of lend-lease shipments to the in 1942. However, the trend has been U.S.S.R. last year. Included were more reversed in the last half of 1944. than 1,000 locomotives and more than On the other hand, there has been a 8,000 railroad cars. Germans, in their steady trend away from munitions in ex- retreat from Russian soil, destroyed ports to the U.S.S.R.: they constituted railroad lines and rolling stock, as well only 43% of the exports to the Soviet as highways. in 1944, as against 47% in 1943 and 62% Exports to the Soviet and the British in 1942. This is an indication of the Empire accounted for 93% of total lend- increasing independence of Soviet war leasein 1944. India replaced Egypt as KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK Some Week Lotest Previous Month Week Week Ago 1944 1943 1942 1941 Wor Program-checks poid (millions of dollars) 1,688 2,122 1,513 2,104 1,395 499 162 Wor bond soles - E,F,G (millions of dollars) 220 227 246 589 220 155 - Money in circulation (millions of dollars) 25,557' 25,411* 25,209 20,610 15,845 11,339 8,665 Wholesale prices (1926:100) 104.9" 104.7 104.6 103.1 102.1 All commodities 95.7 80.5 126.8 125.7 125.9 121.9 118.6 100.7 70.7 Form products 104.9 104.3 104.6 104.0 105.5 94.0 73.2 Foods All other 99.3 99.3 99.1 98.1 96.4 94.9 84.6 Petroleum (000 borrels) Total U.S. stocks 404,325 404,784 417,883 415,516 439,092 496,291 496,111° Total East Coost stocks 57,662 58,979 67,667 55,630 47,430 72,542 83,120 East Coost receipts 1,860 1,693 1,742 1,558 1,202 N.A. N.A. Bituminous coal production (000 short tons) 1,893 1,947 1,662 2,158 1,917 1,880 1,722 Steel operations (% of capacity) 92.8% 89.35 93.0% 97.25 99.3% 95.5% 97.16 Freight cors unloaded for exports, excluding grain 3,439 3,170 3,122 2,788 1,514 1,587 1,116 Atlontic Coost ports Gulf Coost ports 431 510 439 310 335 353 382 2,121 2,115 1,871 1,182 906 324 159 Pocific Coost ports Department store soles (1935-39-100) 172 163 145 142 178 122 101 Preliminary "Revised Excludes militory-owned stocks Estimated "Doily Average N.A. Not Available Unodjusted CONFIDENTIAL 10 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS the third largest recipient. Shipments to India rose 38% as the war in the Pa- Soot for Rubber cific mounted in intensity. The movement Carbon black becomes criticalo '45 tire and of lend-lease to Italy increased sharply, but such goods were consigned to the tube requirements rise. Output this year British and other allied troops fighting will be nearly 50% greater than '44, there. Shipments to Australia, New Zea- largely due to new facilities. land, Algeria, and Iraq dropped off, CARBON BLACK (natural gas soot) is to while Turkey had all but disappeared from rubber what molybdenum, nickel, and the lend-lease picture by the end of the other alloying elements are to steel. year. Here's how lend-lease exports in It makes rubber tough yet resilient. 1944 compared with the previous year, by And because of the sharp stepup in 1945 country of destination: tire and tube requirements, carbon black is critical. % 1944 1943 Change This year's overall production, at (millions) more than 1,130,000,000 pounds, will U.K. $4,938 $4,074 +21% be at an all-time high-nearly 50% above U.S.S.R. 3,424 2,927 +17 last year's 760,000,000 pounds. The India 724 525 +38 new facilities installations of $24,- Egypt 471 871 -46 000,000, the first of which should be- Italy 421 15 +2,707 gin operating next month, will account Australia 311 433 for most of the increases. -28 Algeria 73 280 -74 Union of S.A. 65 MAY BE ENOUGH, BUT. 106 -39 Brazil 57 60 -5 In total, this production plus in- Fr. Morocco 44 42 +5 ventories appears to be sufficient to New Zealand 42 92 -54 meet demand, according to present rubber China 41 42 -2 requirements. (The inventory is small, Iraq 12 78 -85 about 30,000,000 pounds against 175,- Turkey 7 85 -92 000,000 early last year.) But rubber Iran 7 14 -50 requirements are still rising, and steps All Other 483 461 +5 are being taken to conserve carbon black. Grand total .$11,120 $10,105 +10% Some types of tires may get only 95% as much black as was used on January 12, Although the movement of lend-lease 1945, the base period; hard rubber prod- goods to China dropped off slightly, the ucts, only about 80%. No carbon black recent linking of the Ledo and Burma may be used in garden hose, many house- Roads, completion of a pipeline from hold products using rubber, certain Calcutta through Burma into China, the plumbing supplies, etc. These measures employment of a large corps of American are expected to save some 10,000,000 technicians to aid in organizing the pounds per month. Chinese transport system, and the as- Channel black-one of the two basic signing of 15,000 American-made trucks types of carbon black-promises to re- to haul equipment and supplies are ex- main short notwi thstanding. Tire manu- pected to result in a sharp increase in facturers prefer channel black to fur- shipments to China during the coming nace black (the other type) for tire months. treads because of its smaller, harder CONFIDENTIAL FEBRUARY 17, 1945 CONFIDENTIAL ... II particles, which resultina better end cluding export), as against an estimated product for certain purposes. Further, supply of 548,000,000 pounds. Supply channel black is easier to process and of furnace black is expected to be 616,- sells for 36 cents per pound as against 000,000 pounds, versus requirements of 5 cents to 7 cents for furnace black. 516,000,000 pounds. Despite the fact This price differential goes back to that furnace black output will be ahead pre-OPA days. At the time OPA ceilings of requirements, production must be were introduced, channel black manu- kept high tooffset deficits in channel facturers were engaged competitive black. price war and were caught with their The Rubber Bureau is now working on prices down. a detailed breakdown of carbon black Current 1945 requirements for channel requirements to determine how much is black amount to 646,000,000 pounds (in- needed in tires, tubes, insulating wire, PLUSES AND MINUSES IN CARBON BLACK I. During 1944, consumption consistently 2. But output of channel block was behind exceeded production, all the way, IOO 100 Consumption 75 75 Deficit MILLIONS OF POUNDS (Inventory Inroods] Production 50 50 Consumption Deficit MILLIONS OF POUNDS Inventory Inroods) 25 Production 25 o o J F M A M J J A S o N D J F M A M J J A S o N D 1944 1944 3. While furnace block production and con- 4 For this year, the deficit again is in sumption ran fairly even. channel black. IOO 1945 1945 STATED REQUIREMENTS" EST. SUPPLY 75 Furnoce MILLIONS OF POUNDS Furnoce Block Block 50 Production Channel Channel Consumption Block 25 Block 1,160,000,000 lbs. 1,160,000,000 lbs. o J F M A M J J A 5 o N D 1944 When new rubber requirements are determined, corbon block requirements will be higher, but will be offset portly by conservation meosures, WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 12 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS Income Payments - Labor Turnover - Inventories Lotest Preceding 2 Months Same Month Month" Month Ago 1943 1942 1941 1939 INCOME PAYMENTS (millions of dollars) Total 14,388 13,253 13,684 13,557 11,897 9,490 7,005 Solories and wages 9,635 9,508 9,541 9,127 7,843 5,813 4,070 Comm, distr. and serv. industries 7,132 7,052 7,088 6,961 6,275 4,021 3,515 Government 2,503 2,456* 2,453 2,166 1,568 792 555 Militory 1,350 1,343 1,342 1,048 673 159 41 Nonmilitory 1,153 1,113 1,111 1,118 895 633 514 Other income payments+ 4,753 3,745" 4,143 4,430 4,054 3,677 2,935 Income payments annual rate (odjusted for seasonal, billions of dollars) 160.3 159.5' 158.2 150.9 131.7 103.2 74.1 LABOR TURNOVER IN MFG. INDUSTRIES (rote per hundred employees) All monufacturing Separation Rote-Total 5.5 6.0 6.4 6.6 6.4 4.7 3.5 Quits 4.1 4.6* 5.0 4.4 3.7 1.8 .7 Military -3 -3. is is 1.3 .4 N.A. Accession Rote-Total 4.9 6.1" 6.0 5.2 6.9 4.8 2.8 Aircraft Separation Rote-Total 4.5 5.6. 6.2 5.6 6.2 3.9 1.7 Quits 3.5 4.2" 4.8 3.9 3.7 2.3 1.1 Military .2 is .3 -5 1.8 .8 N.A. Accession Rote-Total 4.4 5.2 4.8" 3.9 11.0 10.8 6.9 Shipbuilding Separation Rote-Total 9.1 8.9* 9.5 8.9 8.3 6.3 1.8 Quits 6.1 5.9" 6.4 5.9 4.5 2.9 .8 Militory .3 .3° .4 .8 2.0 -5 N.A. Accession Rate-Total 6.6 8.5° 8.4" 6.6 9.4 15.3 2.8 INVENTORIES (millions of dollars) Total 27,366 27,606* 27,454 28,564 28,920 26,990 19,749 Monufacturers 16,979 17,100* 17,139 17,858 17,682 15,179 10,388 Wholesolers 3,987 3,999 3,995 4,117 3,956 4,596 3,606 Retailers 6,400 6,507' 6,320 6,589 7,282 7,215 5,755 *Inventories, November ; all other, December. Preliminary. Revised. Not Available. Work relief, direct and other relief, Social Security benefits, dividends and interest, entrepreneurial income. rubber heels, etc. Itisa big statis- is only a stopgap. These workers will tical task. When completed, it may have to be put back on maintenance in suggest ways and means of rearranging order to prevent a breakdown. In addi- use of channel and furnace black so as tion, more construction workers are to cut down consumption. needed to build the new facilities. To meet this year's program, includ- The problem of getting more workers ing the manning of new facilities, em- is due chiefly to three factors: (1), ployment in the industry must increase most carbon black plants are located more than 50% in the first half, from in out-of-the-way places in the Texas current levels of 1,800 to about 2,800. Panhandle where there isn't too much of Labor shortages areimmediate. Want of a labor supply, and aviation gas, buta- 30 workers in one plant at Phillips Petro- diene, and ordnance plants compete for leum Co., Borger, Texas, is costing an what there is, (2) the work is very estimated 1,500,000 pounds of furnace dirty, and (3) there isa housing short- black per month. Maintenance workers age in some areas. However, the work- are being used in production, but this though dirty-isnot injurious to health CONFIDENTIAL War Progress is loaned to you for official use. It contains CONFIDENTIAL information affecting the security of the United States. Revelation of its contents in any manner to unauthorized persons is prohibited by the Espionage Act. OFFICIAL RULES for its CUSTODY (1) Not to permit information from any copy in their custody to become available to anyone except a Government employee under their immediate supervision who will be bound by the restrictions hereby agreed to and who requires access to WAR PROGRESS in connection with his official duties. (2) To keep all copies in a securely locked container when not actually in use. (3) Not to incorporate information from WAR PROGRESS in any record unless the use of such record is restricted as If the record were itself a copy of WAR PROGRESS. (4) To give prior written notice of any change of address. (5) On written request, or before separation from the Govern- ment position which entitles them to receive WAR PRO- GRESS, to return all copies charged to their account.