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PSF Ireland 1938-39 free January 12, 1938. Dear John:- Thank you ever 80 much for that awfully nice letter of theember sixteenth. Thank heaven the tooth 1s out and the gum is healed, and I am feeling really fit again. As you probably know, Joe Kennedy's nomination has been sent to the Senate. I am sure he will do a good piece of work in London. It seems a long time since you have been home. Do let me know the next time you are here. This carries my very best wishes to you and Mrs. Cudahy for the New Year. As ever yours, Honorable John Cudahy, American Legation, Dublin, Ireland. P.S. Dublin, December 16, 1937 Personal Dear Mr. President, I am sending a word of Christmas cheer to you and Mrs. Roosevelt and I surely hope that you have passed the worst with those teeth of yours. I would have written you before, but there is not much to write about from here and I don't want to clutter your too-cumbersome mail with unnecessary letters. Since the press stories of Joe Kennedy's ap- pointment have not been denied, I am hopeful that it may come about. I was with Joe in London two years ago and know that he is much respected by British people in the most influential circles. At this time of the pending trade treaty his selection as Ambassador is The Honorable Franklin Delano Roosevelt, The President of the United States, The White House, Washington. - 2 - is nothing less than an inspiration. With his extra- ordinary business capacity and power of analyzing difficult business and trade situations, Joe has wonderfully shrewd common sense. And a most important consideration is that he is one of the few Americans not susceptible to the subtle brand of British flattery. I devoutly hope that if Judge Bingham resigns, Joe Kennedy will be chosen to succeed him. With every sincere and faithful wish for the holidays, John ludity Respectfully yours, PSF: Ireland -1938 February 9, 1938. Dear John: 20 218 * 48 I have given a good deal of thought to + your letter of January 22nd and have talked it over with the Secretary of State, who has also had the background of your excellent despatches describing your talks with De Valera. I quite agree with you that a final solution of Anglo- Irish relations, and of the Irish internal problem, would be an inmeasurable gain from every point of view, but I am not convinced that any intervention, - no matter how indirect, - on our part would be wise or for that matter ac- complish the effect we had in mind. In the long run considerations of national defense may well lead England voluntarily to take the action you now urge us to advocate. She 1s not blind to such considerations, but I feel 1t would be a healthier solution, even 1f a slower one, if her decision were reached voluntarily, and on the basis of her own self-interest, than as a result of representations from a third power. I hope you will continue to write me fully for interested. the situation is one in which I an very much Sincerely yours, The Honorable 1193 John Cudahy, 548 Dublin. Dent to state to Deard pouch Unrough Originally filed in PSF: CF: State. Misfiled in PSF.Ireland. Returned to PSF: CF: State 7/18/79 PHO DEPARTMENT OF STATE WASHINGTON February 10, 1938 My dear Mr. President: I return herewith the letter you sent me from John Cudahy suggesting that you intervene in the present Anglo-Irish negotiations, and in compliance with your request for suggestions as to a reply submit a draft letter for your consideration. Faithfully yours, Enclosure: 1. Letter from Mr. Cudahy, January 22, 1938. 2. Letter to Mr. Cudahy. The President, The White House. PSF: frel of shith Carfidential. January 22. 1938. Dear m Priduct The Landen meeting between British and fish representations has been suspended and in true. from a purely Amican felieve in will fail unless you can newpounh I think in important that you do this, for if this opportun it of settling the anglo Sich hostilit other of seven centusies, is lost, no such opportun ity will be presented during this generation. an Incland friendly to Such Briten means the approval by a great share of Amsican public opin in of closs Ausican British relations and the significance 8 Delaw as an in every uns borne home emphatically to the Pritish desiy the last was. ho Pritish defense scheme can is n are the disk ( oach and it was this consideration duced of defen Chambrtain se which to discuss has in the M whole outject of any la drisk relations with de babra. The dis cussives ase dead lock id because of the we str question are batya says he can make no settlement until this matter of the northm countries is settled. He Days that drish dentinements would h coopration our with my lan d while deland The to against any is dis un ited 4 pastition of n with counties. He talks naverably enough and days he does he act want to corce angone, That is prefectly controls that the north stain its own parli ament as Belfast if it sends organizations to a gensal drink pastianent ah Dubbin. Debalya Days his peop would new Tobsete any main Hundred Bitish military forces m drink tenting unless the Pritish take the initiation on the abots justin and he is certin such action unit h approved 5 the great hilk if Pontish public opinion. only small element in the Consentive Pat, a would he opposed to liquid ation fthe Ulstr issue. I believe if you saw his Rould hidday interest at the write House and told him in wh and the bettle much of any hish differences, in hoped the prese h myotialions might success. ancreas, you the effect would to anclusive for to an the only me who can do this, and if you noh to so S think the opportunity for cooprahing Inku. there two reipubong calands which Income NO were for the peace of the world, will h losh for ensation at bach. The Bitch will tell you the in its nothing, that the preshing of wist and kish wit burch h decided 5, above chat Lindon can here nothing to Le with is. Bah & in Christian sends for time Craig avou, the ands of the lebstr tills Paty, in London They and uppealing to him as patriot ah him that the defense of my land is utate, the roult will or suprishing Forth the Prime himister Can bring about in the with bow of the military , asison whate and the suspens sin of of financial Julio idea which support that, oom wish, time y hold h the wish matter of come, M Perid L. an oljective A. vian a and prom can were you sice the for scheley sig cince of Insting with of y the world. Ishall take the fish is - cerp. time for comprace Crip home to discuss The matter with this But regations you 4ym as d line a calla ftr sending PSF: grehand February 26, 1938. Dear John:- Would you be good enough to give this in person to President De Valera? This relates to the subject of your recent letter to me and to President De Valera's letter to me in similar vein handed me by Mr. Frank Gallagher. As you will understand, it is a matter which I cannot take up in any way officially or through diplomatic channels, but am doing it through this letter to President De Valera in a purely personal capacity. Joe Kennedy under- stands all about it. My best wishes to you, As ever yours, Honorable John Cudahy, American Legation, Dublin, Ireland. Hyde Park, N. Y. February 22, 1938. Confidential My dear President De Valera: I was very happy to have your note by the hand of Mr. Frank Gallagher, and it recalled to my mind the days long ago when you and I knew each other over here, long before either one of us thought of the possibility of becoming a President. As you will realize, I am greatly in sympathy with the thought of reconciliation, especially be- cause any reconciliation would make itself felt in every part of the world. It would also strengthen the cause of Democracy everywhere. You will realize, I know, that I cannot offi- cially or through diplomatic channels, accomplish anything or even discuss the matter. But I have taken the course of asking my good friend, Mr. Joseph P. Kennedy, who sails today for England to take up his post as Ambassador, to convey 8. personal message from me to the Prime Minister, and to tell the Prime Minister how happy I should be if recon- ciliation could be brought about. As an old friend, I send you my warm regards, Faithfully yours, His Excellency The Honorable Eamon De Valera, Presidentof the Irish Free State, Dublin, Ireland. Confidential ROINN AN UACHTARÁIN DEPARTMENT OF THE PRESIDENT BAILE ATHA CLIATH DUBLIN soorstót éireann January 25th, 1938 Dear Mr. President, Another great opportunity for finally ending the quarrel of centuries between Ireland and Britain presents itself. The one remaining obstacle to be overcome 18 that of the Partition of Ireland. The British Government alone have the power to remove this obstacle. If they really have the will they can bring about a united Ireland in a very short time. I have pressed my views upon them, but it 1s obvious that they recognise only the difficulties and are not fully alive to the great results that would follow a complete reconciliation between the two peoples. Reconciliation would affect every country where the two races dwell together, knitting their national strength and presenting to the world a great block of democratic peoples interested in the preservation of Peace. Knowing your own interest in this matter, I am writing to ask you to consider whether you could not use your influence to get the British Government to realize what would be gained by reconciliation and to get them to move whilst there is time. In a short while, 1f the present negotiations fail, relations will be worsened. I am sending this by the hands of a trusty friend, Mr. Frank Gallagher, who is in a position to give you any information you may desire concerning the facts of Partition and their bearing on the relations between Great Britain and Ireland. I avail of this occasion, Mr. President, to express to you my sincere regard. Eamon H ralera His Excellency, Franklin D. Roosevelt, President of the United States of America, OC Washington, D.C. His Excellency, Franklin D. Roosevelt, President of the United States of America, WASHINGTON, D.C. reland Dublin, March 1, 1938. Dear Mr. President: I am genuinely indebted to you for your sympathetic letter and your surprisingly accurate appraisal of the Anglo-Irish situation. I have just come from a talk with de Valera, and the negotiations, he tells me, will be terminated at the end of this week without any "Signifi- cant comprehensive results". He said that the British refused to disucss partition and, in consequence, he was unyielding on the matter of defence. These were the two crucial items on the agenda. Whether anything could be worked out on trade and financial relations, he did not know and did not appear greatly interested. I am relieved that you did not consider I had acted as an advocate of the Irish cause in making my suggestion to you. One of the great dangers of American representa- tives in foreign countries is that sometimes they fall in The President, The White House, Washington. - 2 - in with the sentiment of the country to which they are accredited, instead of being zealously, exclusively mindful of American interests. I thought it merely my duty to point out the far- reaching significance of the Anglo-Irish negotiations and what a contribution to world settlement it would be if an enduring friendly understanding could be reached between the two countries. I would not suggest any pressure, but believe very earnestly that you could by merely making an inquiry of the British Ambassador concerning the progress of the negotiations and ex- pressing the hope that they would terminate satisfact- orily, play a telling part to our interest. The negotiations will be formally terminated as now foreseen on March 5, 1938. I hope there may be an opportunity to re-open, but there is nothing to indicate this. Respectfully yours, PSF: Ireland March 9, 1938. Dear John:- Your analysis of what happened in England is the best I have seen. As someone remarked to me -- "If a Chief of Police makes a deal with the leading gangstersand the deal results in no more hold-ups, that Chief of Police will be called a great man - but if the gangsters do not live up to their word the Chief of Police will go to jail. Some people are, I think, taking very long chances -- don't you? As ever yours, Honorable John Cudahy, American Legation, Dublin, Ireland. PSF: Preland Dublin, March 1, 1938. Dear Mr. President: Back of all the press reports on the British Cabinet crisis and the Parliamentary debates is the fact that Mussolini, on his first encounter, took a violent dislike to Eden. This was common knowledge in diplomatic circles. Also, that Musso- lini laid it down as practically a condition pre- cedent that Eden should go. I am certain our people in London have kept the State Department advised that since Neville Chamberlain became Prime Minister he has assumed direction of Foreign Affairs. This Eden found difficult after the free rein given him by Baldwin. There was a story that Eden would get out following the visit of Lord Halifax to Berlin. But The President, The White House, Washington. - 2 - But the outstanding feature of the crisis is that it is further retreat; a meeting of Mussolini on his own terms. Winston Churchill came closest to making an honest analysis when he said this. All other discussions in Parlia- ment and in the press is typical English face- saving. The situation is one of entering into a contract with one who has shown bad faith and repeatedly breached agreements. The Chamberlain Government would have people believe that Musso- lini should be treated as one whose good faith can be taken at its face value, and Eden held out for some assurance of performance in view of re- peated broken promises. This is the real issue and upon this Eden has at last stood firm, as he should have done at the time Baldwin did not stand back of him in the imposition of sanctions. It is my belief that public opinion, if it could be- come articulate, would be against the Government on this issue. The justification of the Prime Minister's policy is that the time has not yet come in the realization of the rearmament program to risk war. But the trouble with this policy is that it marks further - 3 - further retreat, which may be fatal in encourag- ing the dangerous adventures of both Mussolini and Hitler. When Hitler invaded the Rhineland it was clear to all that the treaty system had been replaced by force and show of force in dip- lomacy, and each successful stroke of Rome and Berlin makes this belief more certain. I am sure Joe Kennedy will be able to keep you thoroughly in touch. We have a good staff in London. I recently had a long discussion with Herschel Johnson and was much impressed by him. I am grateful for your letter concerning the Anglo-Irish negotiations which is a clear and sympathetic statement of this situation from our viewpoint. The negotiations have failed, as I predicted at the outset, but I am seeing de Valera shortly and will report Respectfully to you. John hudaly Hill 1 PSF: reland Dublin, April 6, 1938. Personal and Confidential Dear Mr. President: I am grateful for your last note. De Valera was highly pleased and promised me he would lock your letter in his private strong box at home. I was entirely sat- isfied. In my opinion, he is that rare individual whose word can be taken at its face value. I believe him to be entirely honest. The basic thing about Austria is that now there is no balance on the continent. It is like a structure of which the keystone has been taken away. Nothing can now be predicted, for the post-war status quo is irretrievably lost and the Polish-Lithuanian coup is only an example of who t may now be expected. There is no stability left in Europe. Only a fool could have an optimistic outlook. I The President, The White House, Washington. - 2 - I think Chamberlain's is the most weak, vacillating, humiliating policy England has ever presented. It is a drifting, not a policy at all and the amazing thing is the unity of the press and the powers behind the Prime Minister. For three centuries the British have insisted that the base of their foreign relations was a balance of power in Europe. Now, with Austria gone, and the balance with it, they evade the issue of Czechoslovakia with a face-saving which is incredible. One of the consequences is Mussolini's arrogant speech, thumbing his nose at Chamberlain. If a British-Italian accord is accomplished it will be on Mussolini's terms. It is an ignominious defeat and yet the criticism of Chamberlain in his own country has no realistic, clean-cut leadership to insist that the issue be met. That is the tragedy. There is no leadership to op- pose the dictators. Two years ago when Hitler invaded the Rhineland the treaty system was scrapped and there remained only one language they could understand. If one man in England or in France had used that language, had spoken out then as you did when the Panay was sunk, we would have a different picture today. It is not too late even now, but the leadership is not forthcoming. The Anglo-Irish negotiations still continue. Even if something is accomplished on trade and financial matters, the - 3 - the fundamental misunderstanding, which is partition, will not be resolved and so there is no present pros- pect of a permanent reconciliation. John Cudaly Respectfully yours, PSF: reland Dublin, April 6, 1938. Personal. Dear Mr. President, I remember Colonel House showing me the photograph you inscribed for him on the day of your inauguration, and how touched he was by your affectionate thought of him. I received one of the last letters he wrote, I be- lieve. It was hard for him to be on the side lines during the stirring days in Europe. He was a sympathetic friend and had unique gifts as a negotiator. It will be a long time before We can look upon his like again. John Ridahy Respectfully yours, The President, The White House, Washington. April 16, 1938 Dear John: Thanks for your letters. There is one thing about the world situation-and I think only one which is on the hopeful side of the ledger-that we in the United States are still better off than the people or the governments of any other great country. Over here there is the same element that exists in London. Unfortunately, it is led by so many of your friends and mine. They would really like me to be a Neville Chamberlain--and if I would promise that, the market would go up and they would work positively and actively for the resumption of prosperity. But if that were done, we would only be breeding far more serious trouble four or eight years from now. Dear old Colonel House was a grand soul and we shall all mise him. As ever yours, fdr/tmb Honorable John Cudahy, American Legation, Dublin, Irish Free State. filling reland 39.c april H. 1938 clear on Prident, I am hopeful then BillBullitt will ship off and see me an his was back to Pais, for I in anxions to have a post Land n porth I things how it home and especially you an pulicy. The Re org an is whin Bill antome uns a little pill pr me, his I Lope ih has noh gat you down Little Phil Latallette is acting up true to form. you had him accessaly appraised from the with hit he has grat political possibilities and may so a by way in gathering in all shades of Apposition. The siok Batish agree much is a coundrful truin th for Debalsa and their his shte much concerning is un subjection from our anyle. he He wa Senius as a negative for repeared in telling me about the Gms and 2 the agree much, to no denth he fan the upersion in Landar of getting nothing. Bill was night about his own people many of them an funding fault with the agreement. I am inclosing Koscinszko stamps sent the from Poland The cancellation is an the late 8 issue. Respectfully years May 13, 1938. My dear Mr. President:- Thank you for your good letter. I have been made very happy by the reaching of the agreement, as you know, even though the final reconciliation remains for the future. What you have succeeded in doing will help the cause of democracy the world over. I am, as you know, glad to be of the smallest help in a good cause even though I must sometimes act personally and by word of mouth instead of going through the difficulties of diphomatic channels. with By sincere regards, Faithfully yours, His Excellency The Honorable Eamon De Valera, President of the Irish Free State, Dublin, Ireland. May 13, 1938. Dear John:- I was delighted to have Mr. De Valera's letter and I am enclosing a little note for you to give him in person. Tell him also from me that I have written you that I find my own two Irishmen, one in Dublin and the other in London, most helpful. Ever 80 many thanks for those Polish stamps. As ever yours, Honorable John Cudahy, American Legation, Dublin, Ireland. Dublin, April 29, 1938. Personal and Confidential Dear Mr. President: De Valera is too experienced a negotiator to make much of the agreement with England, but it is a wonderful triumph and he is very grateful, as the enclosed letter indicates. At one time it seemed as if negotiations would utterly collapse and it was only a few days before the agreement was executed that it appeared possible of accept- ance by Ireland. I think this agreement will have more far- reaching significance for world peace than is now recognized and certainly from an American viewpoint it is a very desirable accomplishment. I am certain the Irish-American element will acclaim it more enthusiastically The President, The White House, Washington. - 2 - enthusiastically even than here in Ireland, especially the abandonment of the ports by the British. July Respectfully yours, ROINN AN TAOISIGH DEPARTMENT OF THE TAOISEACH BAILE ATHA CLIATH DUBLIN eme April 22nd, 1938. Confidential Dear Mr. President: I received your very kind letter of February 22nd, and have been informed by Mr. Cudahy of the steps, following your instructions, taken by Mr. Kennedy on his arrival in London. The knowledge of the fact that you were interested came most opportuntely at a critical moment in the progress of the negotiations. Were it not for Mr. Chamberlain personally the negotiations would have broken down at that time, and I am sure that the knowledge of your interest in the success of the negotiations had its due weight in deter- mining his attitude. I am now happy to state that an agreement between the two Governments has been reached. The terms will have been already published before this reaches you. So far as the matters covered are concerned, the agreement will, I believe, give satisfaction to both countries. Unfortunately, however, the matter which most affects national sentiment - the ending of the partition of our country - finds no place in the agreement. A complete reconciliation, to the importance of which I referred in my previous letter, remains still for the future. All we can hope 18 that the present agreement will be a step towards it. I want to express to you my thanks for your kind interest, and for your assistance. I know of the many difficult problems of your own country which are engaging your attention, and I am deeply grateful that you could find time to give a thought to ours. With renewed regards. Sincerely yours, Eamon 22 Valira His Excellency, Franklin D. Roosevelt, President of the United States of America, WASHINGTON, D.C. 00 billand folder 8-2 June 28, 1938. Dear John:- I am glad you slipped over to Prague and Budapest and I hope you will make other trips from time to time. Things are very definitely in a dangerous balance and all we can do is hope for the best. My best wishes to you, As ever yours, Honorable John Cudahy, American Legation, Dublin, Ireland. Dublin, June 13, 1938. Personal and Dear Mr. President: The Secretary of State gave me permission to visit Prague and Budapest, and I have just written him a letter regarding my visit, which I believe you may find of interest. Last night I was looking over a number of my letters to you while in Poland and from the predictions I made in these, I would be tempted to prophesy again, but I believe the situation in Europe today is unpredictable. One has the feeling that a new order will certainly emerge and that the processes of this new order are now in motion. Certainly the present status quo cannot long continue, but whether this change will be accomplished by actual force or by the new technique of the show of force, I don't believe anyone can say. The thing to em- phasize is that an explosion is entirely possible this summer The President, The White House, Washington. - 2 - summer and probable before the end of another summer. We must not be taken off our guard if a war does occur this summer. I spent some time with Bill Bullitt in Paris and believe he is the best-informed man in Europe. His views on the dangerous potentialities of the situation are even more emphatic than my own. I am in a good position here to slip over to the continent quietly from time to time, because the position of Ireland is not involved in continental politics and my comings and goings cause no comment. If you think well of it, I may make another trip before I go to the United States at the end of August. Johnludely Respectfully DEPARTMENT OF STATE DIVISION OF PROTOCOL 2/4/39. Dear Miss LeHand:- Am returning this letter for the President's personal files as requested in White House memo of this date. A notation has been made of this letter for Mr. Summerlin who has read the letter from Eamon de Valera. your Puris Donn Purvis) Secretary to Mr. Summerlin PSF Indianal Dear ROINN AN TAOISIGH DEPARTMENT OF THE TADISEACH BAILE ATHA CLIATH DUBLIN eme January 19th, 1939 Dear Mr. President, I have received, through Mr. Cudahy, your very kind letter inviting my wife and myself to spend 8. day or two at the White House during my visit to the United States of America. I appreciate this invitation very much, and I have great pleasure in accepting it. My wife has asked me to express her thanks also, and her deep regret that as she cannot leave home at this time she will be unable to share the privilege of being received by you and Mrs. Roosevelt. In accordance with the arrangement made between Mr. Brennan and your staff, I shall arrive in Washington on the 7th May. With all good wishes for the New Year. Very sincerely yours, E'amon In Valéra The Honorable, Franklin D. Roosevelt, President of the United States of America, 00 WASHINGTON, D.C. PSF full Dublin, January 21, 1939. Dear Mr. President: Joe Kennedy's and Bill Bullitt's testimony before the Military Affairs Committee got an awful splash of publicity in the Irish newspapers. The English press held the story down as well as they could, but those things do a great deal of harm and I regretted very much the whole incident. Apparently there was a leak somewhere, however small. I am strongly in sympathy with your armament program as I am sure anyone is who has any ac- quaintance with the trend of events on this side of the water, for certainly one would have to be an idiotic optimist not to realise that Europe faces an inescapable dilemma: either a march of the armies or a terrific economic crash. It is only a question of The President, The White House, Washington. - 2 - of time and any prediction which attempts to fix a date with any precision is, of course, always difficult, if not impossible. Judge Moore writes me very faithfully, so I keep in touch with things. It is certain that the neutrality legislation, which many of us favored amended so strongly, must now be ignor ed in view of condi- tions, but I must tell you frankly I am not in sympathy with our attitude towards Germany. This is the first time I have not shouted for our foreign policy, but frankly I cannot see the pro- priety of our action in protesting against the inhuman treatment by Germans of German Jews. I am fearful that We may again assume our customary attitude of a moral world souverainty somewhat reminiscent of the same righteous spirit with which Wilson refused to recognize Huerta. Respectfully gms Schuludahy PSF Instand (Onig voint't state to be forwarded Ponel March 4, 1939 Dear John: You and not Mr. de Valera are right about the effect of our policy during the past month. It has had a definite effect on Germany and only a slightly less effect on Italy. The truth about the newspaper story is, of course, a very simple and obvious one. I never of course mentioned frontiers on the Rhine or in France or any- where else but I did point out that there are fifteen or sixteen independent nations in Europe whose continued independent political and economic existence is of actual moment to the ultimate defense of the United States. I pointed out that if, for example, the Baltic states went the way of Caechoslovakia and fell completely under German domination, the American position would be to that extent weakened. That if the Scandinavian countries were to lose their present political and economic independence, again the position of the United States would be weakened. That the same thing holds true with regard to Holland and Belgium and Portugal and even Greece, Egypt and Turkey - not to mention Romania, Bulgaria and Yugoslavia. And I pointed out that Czechoslovakia, a year ago could very properly be called a link in American defense against German and Italian aggression in the future; that Czechoslovakia no longer constituted such a link. All of which was, of course, not only true but proper. The howls and curses that have continued to come from Berlin and Rome convinces me that the general result has been good even if a few silly Senators re- ported the conversation in a wholly untruthful way. As ever yours, Honorable John Cudahy, American Minister, Dublin, Irish Free State. fdr/tmb PSF Includ Personal Dublin, February 9, 1939. Dear Mr. President: Regardless of the facts behind the French frontier newspaper story, I am convinced the net result is a good one, for the only hope of staying the aggressive tactics of Mussolini and Hitler is by confronting them with a reality that the United States will support Great Britain and France by material means. While your emphatic denial has caused some superficial uncertainty over here, the violent outpourings from Italy and the vitriolic abuse of the German press indicate how much Mussolini and Hitler have been disconcerted and how deeply has registered the spectacle of a French-British front with the support of the United States in the background. I The President, The White House, Washington. - 2 - I discussed the whole thing at length last night with Mr. de Valera who disagrees with me regarding the ultimate effect. He thinks that your disavowal has cleared the atmosphere concern- ing America as far as the Dictators are concerned, and that they have reason to believe now that American public opinion will not tolerate any other than an attitude of the most rigid neutrality. July Respectfully yours, PSF yil Pusmel Personal Dublin, March 28, 1939. Dear Mr. President: It is now possible to predict the outlook for the next six weeks. Mussolini's speech, stripped of general belligerency, coming down to the cases--Jibuti, the Suez and Tunis--does not demand anything which cannot be the subject of negotiation by France without losing too much face. Hitler took 125 million dollars in gold from Prague, I am told, and this will be supplemented by a further confiscation of the Jews' property and a seizure of one- half the possessions of the Catholic Church in Germany. If you can apply any measurement of logic to Hitler the consequent improvement in German economy, with the necessity of consolidating the Czech conquest, should keep him occupied until early summer at least. But even the British now recognize that any status quo is transitory and the only question is where Hitler will go next. It is not plausible to think he will move into The President, The White House, Washington. - 2 - into Slovenia and Croatia without the initiative of Mussolini. I am certain he is not yet ready to attack Poland. Rumania should, therefore, be next. A likely method would be for the German ally, Hungary, to insist upon the return of Transylvania. Rumania will resist if given any show of support by the British or French, and once again Chamberlain will be faced with the dilemma of calling a halt, or giving further ground, this time closer to British possessions. I have just talked to the British Ambassador succeed- ing Lord Perth at Rome, who was last stationed in Turkey, and he tells me the Turks will fight if Germany invades their country, and that if the Germans dominate the Black Sea it will mean the end of the Empire. So perhaps the stand will come at the Turkish frontier. But there is yet no sign of any stand. An alliance with other countries will probably never get beyond the talk stage. Poland is the only power on the continent of any considerable mili- tary force to which the British could turn, and there is little likelihood that they will make a mutual commitment of any meaning with Poland or Russia. The striking thing is the crushing failure of Chamber- lain's policy at every turn and the naive refusal of his Government to admit that failure. Only British mentality could be so invincible in error. Yet there is no other leadership in sight than Chamberlain and if he should go there - 3 - there is no one to take his place. My admiration is very great for the way you have handled our end of things. I am sure ninety percent of the American people are behind your foreign policy. But at the time you spoke it took courage and leadership. There is nothing else we can do now exceptamend the neu- trality law; that and perpare our defences, as you have urged upon Congress. My thanks for your letter which bore out my assump- tion of what took place with the Committee. Respectfully John Cularly yours PSF: Ireland Dublin, April 3, 1939. Dear Mr. President, The declaration to Poland is not so violent a commitment as it may at first seem. Mr. Chamberlain was careful to point out that he was engaged in ne- gotiations with other countries and this obligation to Poland was an "interim" one. Therefore, if nothing comes of the negotiations there will be no continuing obligation. The Times brought out that "independence" did not mean "integrity" so there would be no duty to defend Poland against every ag- gressive attack. Danzig by this reasoning might well be excluded from vital independent Polish in- terests. Morally, though, it means that at last England has decided to make a stand. Why for Poland, the most vulnerable country in Europe, with frontiers utterly The President, The White House, Washington. - 2 - utterly exposed on both sides to Russia and Germany, its traditional enemies, while Czechoslovakia is tossed overboard with 1,250,000 well-prepared, well- equipped fighting men, a powerful line of fortifica- tions, artillery and the Skoda munition works? Poland has no heavy artillery, no important munition establishment and no fortification. Yet Germany is not now ready to fight for the Corridor or Silesia. These are for later consideration. Meanwhile Poland serves as a flanking force against Russia. The only way I can explain this latest tension is an attempt by the Germans to stop Beck from going to London. Beck is one of the shrewdest and most realistic brains in Europe. He is trading. He knows that if he cannot get financial help from Great Britain or France his country is lost. It is only the truth to say that Poland came into being and has been kept alive by the great loans the United States made after the war. The country is hopelessly poverty stricken. I have not been shaken in the views written you on March 28. Despite the belief of world markets to the contrary, I am still of the opinion that this excitement will die down and there will be a lull until the early summer. Respectfully bhuluday years PSF: freland Dublin, April 6, 1939. Confidential Dear Mr. President, I had a talk with de Valera and did my best to impress upon him the fact that he must not talk too much about Partition and unity with Northern Ireland during his American tour. I said the American people were very much wrought up by the situation in Europe, that our sympathies were with the democratic powers and overwhelmingly supported the Administration. I told him very emphatically that if he were to dwell in his speeches upon any movement which would be considered an attack upon England this would be resented by the people in our country and would react to the detriment of the Irish cause. He The President, The White House, Washington. - 2 - He professed to be impressed by what I said and promised me that whatever he would say on the Partition issue would be said with tact and discrimination. But I wish you would hammer home to him the necessity of treading very lightly on any controversial issue directed against England. I need not tell you that this is written in greatest confidence and it would be fatal to me here if you were to disclose to Mr. de Valera that I have written you about this matter. Profectfully years John Undaby child Ps Inelo) TELEGRAM Cable The White House of Mashington DUBLIN April 27 1939 The President Hyde Park (via the White House) I regret very much indeed that owing to certain events which may have grave consequences here I am compelled at the last moment to postpone my visit to America. I am extremely grateful for the trouble taken in relation to my visit by you and the Secretary of State. I look forward with great pleasure to visiting you and fulfilling my engage_ -ments in America as soon as circumstances permit. Eamon DeValera. 1145amd PSF Insland TELEGRAM file mal The White House THE WHITE HOUSE Mashington Washington DC April 27, 1939 WDH Read DeValera's telegram to the President by telephone. At President's request directed State Department to acknowledge telegram in his name expressing keen regret and saying the President counted upon seeing him this summer. The President was much interested. Also please tell President I have authorized Mrs. Helm to cancel invitations to the dinner scheduled in DeValera's honor for Sunday evening May seventh. Therefore I give you for his information the following United Press report: "Until yesterday evening it was my intention to leave this week-end for the United States, DeValera told the DAIL. "The importance of my visit to that country, where there are tens of millions of people of Irish origin and where the people as a whole have been of unfailing support in times of crisis when we have been resisting aggression justified such risks as might be involved in my leaving the country. "Certain grave offenses which occurred yesterday have however, changed the situation and I have deemed it necessary to alter my plans and postpone my visit." DeValera was pressed for an explanation of the"offenses" but he declined to reveal them. James Dillon asked him what they were but DeValera replied: "I do not think it would be in the public interest that I should state them now" DeValera thanked President Roosevelt and the American people for the invitation to visit the United States and said he thought it would be understood why he had to post- ponedhis trip. "I would like to add that I feel extremely grateful to President Roosevelt and the American people for their invitation to me as a representative of the Irish nation and for the preparations they made to receive me," he said. "I am sure they will understand that nothing but a situation of real gravity would have prevented me from ful filling my engagements as arranged. Official circles declined to reveal the nature of the "offenses," but it was known that they referred to the ITish nation and were understood in some quarters to have been connected with Great Britain's constription announcement. STE P.F printe July 28, 1939 Iraland MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT THE SECRETARY OF STATE AMBASSADOR HUGH WILSON I had a long discussion yesterday with Mr. Edward Quarles who for the past thirty years has been the managing director of the Vacuum 011 Company in Germany with headquarters at Hamburg. I have known Mr. Quarles for many years upon such terms that I am confident that what he told me can be accepted without qualification or reserve. He said that he was convinced Germany would, before the end of another year, face economic collapse. Exports have fallen 80 precipitously due to effective foreign boycotts that imports of essential raw materials are curtailed to such a point that the economic structure cannot survive unless relief is forthcoming. There is acute shortage of meats, butter (ration now one half a pound per week), eggs (three per week but one never got the full ration). The normal wheat crop 1s sufficient only to sustain half the population, but it is possible that the country might, by consuming rye and oats, have sufficient grain for sustenance. There 1s also an acute shortage of raw materials such as wool, cotton, rubber and 011. The supply of structural metals (iron, steel, nickel and chromium) 18 so limited that construction is radically reduced. As illustrative of the severity of this shortage all iron fences in Hamburg had been torn up to be smelted. Mr. Quarles did not feel the imminence of inflation despite the hardship caused by this lack of food stuffs and raw materials. -2- His reasons: the iron discipline of the regime, the tractability of the people and terror of the Gestapo. Mr. Quarles 1s convinced that the situation is 80 critical that a settlement looking to a re-establishment of German trade and access to essential raw materials must be effected before another winter. For this reason he believes that Hitler will pre- cipitate another crisis before the end of September. A round- table discussion will ensue and he will be granted access to raw material areas now in control of Great Britain and France. Quarles states that he has known Hitler since the beginning of the Nazi regime, has studied him very carefully and believes that while Hitler will come very close, he will not face the guns. Hitler does not want war and will not go to war knowing that it means national suicide. Mr. Quarles expressed the opinion that Hitler's ambitions were confined to the return of Danzig and the Corridor, restoration of the colonies, free access to essential raw materials. Mr. Quarles did not think Danzig could be the cause of war. In a show-down, Great Britain and France would persuade Poland to effect a compromise, cede Danzig and give Germany transit across the Corridor in exchange for a long term guarantee of peace from Germany. I do not subscribe to these views for based on my knowledge of the Polish national character, I believe the Poles will fight for Danzig and the Corridor even though they know such a fight may be unsupported and against tremendous, even hopeless, odds. John Cuday JOHN CUDAHY PSF Instand Inland Like Personal. Dublin, August 17,1939. Dear Mr. President: De Valera will reach New York September 28th and I hope you will not be away from Washington when he arrives there. You will be impressed by Dev (as we all call him). He has strength and a moral stature that one feels on first contact. Martin Conboy, who is staying here with his family has great admiration for him. Together, we agreed last night that our own President and Dev were the only statesmen of the democracies in this generation. I have often said that if de Valera were Prime Minister of Great Britain it would be a different world today. He has your quality of showing the way instead of being shown. I shall be interested in your judgment of him after your meeting. I told him your views, and he reaffirmed what I said to you about Ireland and the next war. I saw Bill Bullitt for a few minutes in London but had no opportunity to get his views on the outlook. Joe President Franklin D. Roosevelt, The White House. - 2 - Joe K is away in Cannes, and Herschel Johnson, in charge of the Embassy reports all quiet, with no present prospects of an explosion. For the moment the optimists are entitled to a hearing, but fundamentals remain the same and I do not like the threat of the Japanese against Hong Kong. That would never be made unless there was an understanding of synchronized action by Germany in the European scene. Respectfully John ludely yours as a president can, and enjoying I hope you an taking it as aslay a much needed ret. / of B the "in 11 Land Neworks" mayr is 3 M PSF filenne Indiand Dublin, 11th September, 1939. Dear Mr. President, I am grateful, you may be sure, for your ready response to our situation here, and your sympathetic understanding, which never fails. It was great to talk to you the other night, and I am thoroughly indebted for your efforts in getting us emergency funds. of course all Americans in Europe are clamor- ing to get home, and most of them fail to understand why they cannot be repatriated at once. The main thing is to calm them down and let them know that they have not been abandoned by their Government, but will be taken home just as soon as ships are available. There are, as far as we know, in France, England and Ireland, about fifteen thousand Americans anxious The President, Franklin D. Roosevelt, The White House, Washington. - 2 - anxious to get out. I believe we shall have almost all of them on their way home by the first week in October. As far as Ireland is concerned, there is no need of apprehension, for this country is determined to maintain neutrality, and I believe will do so, for months at least. From the present outlook we will have all Americans started home within another three or four weeks, and then I will be among the unemployed. I would appreciate it deeply if you could write a short note to the Lord Mayor of Galway, telling him of our gratitude for the efficient and sympathetic handling of the four hundred and thirty survivors of the Athenia. After I made my report about the Athenia, I met in Galway, Captain Kirk, our Naval Attaché, and found that his evidence coincided with mine, except on the question of the second projectile. He concluded that there was only one explosion, that from the submarine, but I reported a second explosion from a shell, projected through the air. I see Churchill, in giving an account to the House of Commons - 3 - the Conclusions 2 Commons on September 7th, sustained A my report and stated that soon after the torpedo struck the ship, the submarine came to the surface and fired a shell which exploded on one of the ship's decks. You might remember asking me during our last conversation how long I thought the Polish army could hold out unsupported against Germany. I gave them two months, you will remember. I know how sick at heart you must be about this terrible War which will probably last for years and set the clock back a generation. Please give me orders at any time if I can be of any essenger Service in Europe, or if you think I could be of use over there. Respectfully your Johnludahr PSF School Dublin, September 15th, 1939. Dear Mr. President, M. Jules Blondel, the French Minister, came to see me and advanced two theses contingent upon the collapse of Poland. would One, that Mussolini intervene on the side of Germany, to share in the distribution of the British and French Empires. This goes upon the assumption that Germany will have demonstrated a crushing military superiority to the French and English. The other, that the Italian armies will march with Great Britain and France, when Mussolini is convinced that Hitler is bound to fail ultimately. The quid pro quo would be the removal of the German menace The President, Franklin D. Roosevelt, The White House, Washington. - 2 - menace from the Brenner, the absorption of Austria by Italy and the settlement of Italian Colonial ambitions. Blondel would impress you as an unusually intelligent observer, and a man of level headed judgement. He was Chargé in Rome for two years, until Francois-Poncet was sent there as Ambassador four months ago. He told me Mussolini was the greatest gambler in the world today, and the great- est realist. The suggestion that Mussolini will take a hand in the war after Poland has collapsed was made also by the Italian Minister, who told me the other day that Italy would "arrange a realistic peace after Poland was finished." I do not want to clutter your desk with unnecessary letters these days, but know your mind is focused on the European scene, and thought this might interest you. I talked to Bill Bullitt just after the storm broke, and keep constantly in touch with Kennedy. We are watching the neutrality legislation closely and dee sure public fee tinent is with you. I'll have nothing to do her in three on for weells. John lidaly Respectfully y mys September 18, 1939 My dear Lord Mayor: Minister Cudaby has told ne of the efficient and sympathetic manner in which the authorities and citizens of Galway sade arrangement for the reception and care on September fifth of the Athenia survivors, among whom were one hundred and twelve Americans. Your generous, sympathetic and capable provision for these distressed Americans has noved our country profoundly, and I hope you will express to the Reverend Dr. Browne, Bishop of Galway and to the nembers of the relief committee our most genuine end lasting gratitude. Very sincerely yours, FRANKLIN D. ROOSEVELT The Honorable James Costello, Lord Mayor of Galway, Ireland. The President when signing this letter wrote a P.S. in longhand at the bottom. According to G.G.T. the following is an approximation of what he said: The State Dept feels that you ought to stay in Dublin--their judgement you should be there. PSF Indian Dublen October 17, 1939. Dear John:- I am delighted that the congestion of passengers to the United States is nearly over and I think you have handled everything beauti- fully. The neutrality legislation here seems to be going all right. In regard to Tony, I think it most important for him to stay close to the Polish Government in France. We have recognized that Government and to bring his home now would be a virtual slap in the face. Besides which Tony has lots of discretion, he and his wife will get some rest in France after all they have been through, and he will be able to help Bill Bullitt in many ways. Thank the Lord the "Iroquois" is safely in. What a fantastic performance on the part of the German Government! My best wishes to you, Always sincerely, Honorable John Cudahy, American Logation, Dublin, Ireland. PSF Dublin, September 25, 1939. Personal Dear Mr. President, In another week or two we will be through with our job of getting home-sick Americans away from this Island, and then I will be among the unemployed. I think I could make myself most useful by going to London, Paris and Berlin, viewing things on the ground floor, and then going to Washington with a verbal report for you. If you think well of this you might please have Miss Lehand send me a message. I have read and re-read your Neutrality Address to Congress and think it was one of the finest you have ever made. You put the case simply, succintly and The President, Franklin D. Roosevelt, The White House, Washington. - 2 - and very persuasively, and what I like is the absence of anything approaching rhetorical flourish. Those of us who believed in the arms embargo realise in experience that we were wrong, and I am sure you will convince the country that your recommendations are the soundest course to keep us out of war, by avoiding the proximate causes which drew us into the last war. I must tell you how wonderfully Joe Kennedy is co- operating with me and helping me at every turn. He executed in a few hours yesterday some business for Americans going to England from Ireland for repatriation that would, in the ordinary course, have taken a week or more. I had a long talk with Tony Biddle last night; he has done a grand bit of work and should be called home now for a rest. He merits it. Bill Bullitt told me he was having the time of his life and never so happy. Johnday Respectfully your PSF Incland Personal and Confidential. Dublin, October 2, 1939. Dear Mr. President, I hope you will call Tony Biddle home without delay. The Polish State became a fiction on October 1st and the Government taken over by Rackiewicz can do nothing except agitate for a hopeless cause. An American Ambassador to Poland in Paris would mean that he would be constantly approached as an intermediary to raise troops and funds in our country in contravention of our Neutrality Laws. The effort of Sikorski is a sample of what will be forthcoming. It will be impossible to divorce the personal from the official acts of an American Ambassador to Poland. Tony has been through a long trying siege. He should be called home now for a rest. I am sure you will agree, if you have not already made a decision. No one can feel more deeply about Poland than I do, but we must face the disagreeable fact that Poland is now a memory and our business is primarily to stay out of this war. The The President Franklin D. Roosevelt, The White House. - 2 - The sinking of the Athenia has been handled with the hand of experienced wisdom. Now it has ceased to be news and if any diplomatic action is necessary a Note can be sent to all belligerents, on like terms, for there never was any evidence that the Athenia was sunk by a German submarine. If we protested to Germany alone and ignored the other warring nations we would be protesting upon presumption, not on proof. In this way we made a record in the last war from which we could not recede, as you know so well. The progress of the Neutrality Legislation looks very promising from this distance and I am sure Congress will do as you have asked. I am hopeful for favorable word from you concerning my proposed trip to France and Germany. I am sure I could bring back interesting information if you would approve my going. Respectfully yours John Rudaly PSF Inclared Personal. Dublin, October 27,1939. file Dear Mr. President, After two months of war it is possible to appraise the Irish neutral position. One becomes very cautious about making predictions in Europe, but assuming the war develops as now indicated Ire- land will remain neutral. It is a real neutrality even though benevolently disposed toward England-- a neutralité dirige. The British have at length sent a Minister here designated a "representative". I had a long talk with de Valera last night. He is convinced his course must be neutral because he is assailed by other sides, the die-harders and the Anglo element. The one accuse him of being in the vest- pocket of England, and the Anglos are contemptuous of Irish neutrality believing that this Island is still a part of the United Kingdom. // You as a naval man will readily appreciate this: there is a real danger in the importance of Berehaven and The President The White House. - 2 - Bantry Bay the plans of the Admiralty. At present British destroyers must operate from Pembroke and Plymouth 200 and 300 miles further than these Irish ports. And as you know so well the most frequented approach to England is by this south-west coast of Ireland. Churchill was bitterly opposed to the transfer of the Irish ports in the settlement between de Valera and Chamberlain and as the war reaches a more desperate stage may insist that British Naval Operations be conducted from Bantry Bay and Berehaven. This would be a great mistake for if any attempt was made by the British to occupy any part of the Irish Coast you would see that same hostility towards England that you personally witnessed here during the last war. Respectfully yours, thirtuday D PSF Indand 1 23 Dublin, October 28,1939 Dear Mr. President, It took a great effort to resist an impulse to send you a cable of congratulation last night. Never in the history of American politics has there been such masterful leadership as your conduct of the neutrality battle. Your last radio talk was wonderfully well timed and was the last push I am sure to put the thing over in smashing style. I wrote Pa Watson offering to settle a bet made with him last summer that you would never accept the nomination, but sad as it is from your personal view- point there is now no other patriotic course open to you. For I am sure the overwhelming mass of Ameri- cans have my conviction that you are the only man in point of training, experience and demonstrated judge- ment capable of handling the Presidency during this war. Everything is in order for me to visit France and Germany except permission. I wish you would let me go. I am dying of slow rust and rot here. Respectfully John ludely 7 arrs The President Franklin D. Roosevelt, The White House. PSF Indand Personal and 1. Dublin, November 3,1939. file Dear Mr. President, General Ironside told me that as far as the French and British are concerned there would be no offensive this year. He said that an attempt to smash through either the Maginot or Seigfried Lines would be madness and the casualties would be appalling. But he does not think the present stalemate will be continued. Neither Hitler nor the morale of the German people can withstand the spectacle of Germany encircled, or the prospect of a war of attrition. Von Brauditsch will be replaced by Reidienau according to Ironside. Ironside has not a high opinion of Reidienau's military capacity and says that he will be Commander-in- Chief because he is more amenable to Hitler's ideas. At this time Ironside thinks that there are two possibilities: First, that the Germans will make a supreme effort by air and submarine to knock out the British fleet and isolate England. More The President The White House. - 2 - More probable, an attempt to turn the allied flank on the Western Front through Holland. I asked him if the Dutch could not, as they did against Louis XIV, open the flood gates and inundate their country, but he said the German attack would come with lightning like rapidity and it was questionable whether this could be done fast enough. Further the great territory north of the Rhine and east of the Ijssel and the Zuyder Zee could not be inundated. General Ironside did not anticipate an offensive against Belgium because of the Belgian fortifications. Neither did he look for an advance through Switzerland, for the Swiss Army of 400,000, he said, was an efficient military force capable of determined resistence. Moreover columns advancing through the narrow mountain defiles would be subjected to enfilade fire and bombed to smithereens from the air. The Dutch, the General said, had not fought a war since the 17th Century; the army of only 200,000 was an unknown quantity, and the Dutch-German border was not forti- fied except from the Belgian frontier to the Zuyder Zee. Holland should be an easy victim to relieve the tension in Germany and give Hitler another victory. General - 3 - General Ironside gave me permission to write you the above information and to express his opinion as herein indicated. I served under the General in the Archangel campaign, have visited him, and kept constantly in touch with him ever since those war days. He is a warm friend, and I have a very high regard for him as a military leader. With this background you will be interested to learn that General Ironside has great faith and admiration for General Gamelin. Respectfully, John Cudely PSF Inclo- Briland Dublin, November 17, 1939. file Prossul Dear Missy, It is a melancholy reflection that you will not get this note until the shape of things that are may be entirely mis-shapen, for the last ship has gone from our shores and it will be a month at least be- fore this reaches you via England. Last Wednesday the Lord Mayor of Cork and the Harbor Commissioners of Cork and Cobh called on me, petitioning that something be done about American ships calling at Irish ports. I tried to show them that they should address Washington through the medium of their Government and the Irish Minister, but they felt aggrieved and afflic- ted on this marooned Island and found relief in dis- cussing their woes, even though they knew they could get Miss Margaret Lehand, The White House, Washington. - 2 - get nothing but sympathy. We have cleared our Island of home-stricken Americans, except a few odds and ends who did not have common gardener sense enough to get on the ships the American Government so generously provided solely for repatriation purposes. The Legation advised everyone through the Press and over the radio, time and time again, so we do not worry about those who are stranded now through stupidity, and there is little to do and absolutely no pressure. I am slowly passing out through disintergration and disillusion. I was cheered considerably by a letter from the Presi- dent which bucked me up and made me feel stimulatingly important. The President has such a wonderful gift of saying pleasant things, which I always believe he himself believes. No wonder we are all so devoted to him. He is an in- spiring Chief, with a knowledge of the human equation beyond belief. Did you see that letter I wrote him after my visit to General Ironside? I wonder if the General's prophecy will be born out. We should know before this reaches you. It is a strange war; baffling and inexplic- able. It is a mad world we live in, and what will happen during the economic chaos which will follow this war is a staggering - 3 - staggering contemplation. I want to go on the Continent. I know I could do this usefully but nobody falls in with my suggestion. My comings and goings are unheralded and I never get centre- stage in opposition to the prima donnas so I know I could be useful, but nothing happens. Therefore, if you hear of me falling into the Liffey by mistake, you will under- stand everything. Look after our President and take good care of him from me. Also, loosen up and write me of the lowest gossip, for I am sure you have not a thing to do now that Congress has adjourned and all the fervid orators taken their leave of Washington. If you su Jane tell hv l an shill reading her letter. yours John PsF Indon Print Inland of THE DEPARTMENT ai STATE 1 the in DEC 10 1939 MR. MOORE his 3 form camel felesonal. Dublin, November 29, 1939. Personal. Dear Judge, It seems an age and a generation since your last letter but I can well believe you have every minute packed with more important business than writing an old friend marooned on this far away Island. I am not yet convinced by the thesis of a short war. We know the British and their determination. I have it from a re- liable source that the British - and that is Gamelin's view also - do not expect the war to reach a determinate phase until the end of 1940. My understanding is that the Germans expect to bring the pressure of their war machine to bear on Eng- land at the beginning of next Spring. About the first of May they will attempt to do what Napoleon failed to do; to bring about the starvation of the British Islands. Their whole war effort is geared for its maximum push next Spring. I am told by a naval expert that at the beginning of the war the Germans had only sixty submarines, but their plants and factories were so organized as to ex- pand upon the commencement of hostilities so that in a year's time they could turn out tery times the submarines in operation at the beginning of the war. Making allow- ance for considerable exaggeration, 4 think it reasonable to The Honorable R. Walton Moore, Counselor of the Department of State, Washington. - 2 - to assume that the German military laboratory learned by the lesson of the last war realized how close they were to bringing about the economic collapse of England by submarine warfare in 1917. The record is clear that if von Tirpitz had been given his way and allowed to concentrate on his ruthless U Boat campaign, Germany might well have prevailed. Now the showing made by the submarines in the sinking of the Courageous, the Royal Oak, the Belfast (and confidentially, I under- stand, the Iron Duke) is very impressive in my opinion and a depressing augury of what may be coming to the British Navy during the winter months. I talked a few weeks ago with a man who is probably the best informed alien concerning internal economic conditions in Germany and he told me that, while Germany might experience some shortage in such essential pri- mary materials as petrol, boxite, tin and copper, there was every indication that the German General Staff had made provision in all raw materials for a long war. This man said that there was preserved meat and grain stored in great quantities and he did not anticipate any short- age in animal or mineral fats for at least a year. He expressed the opinion that the Germans were equipped to hold out for a year at least before they would feel the pinch of the blockade, and he said this was a conserva- tive estimate - probably two years would be closer to the truth. He based his opinion not only upon know- ledge of actual supplies in Germany, but also upon the accumulation of raw materials resulting from the ration- ing system of the past two years. Germany, during four years - we all know - has staked upon war and the whole economy of the country has been & war economy. It does not seem reasonable, then, to believe that items of raw materials and food stuffs essential for a prolonged struggle, have not been included in the estimates of the German General Staff. Barring the unforeseen, I look for a struggle of attrition and it is a grim prospect, for one need have no - 3 - no imagination to visualise the prostrate and desolate condition of all Europe after two years of the fright- ful waste resulting from this war. There are twenty- two men under arms in Europe today, and if hostilities were to cease tomorrow, the contemplation of the chaos resulting from their unemployment and the terrific bill which must be paid for all this war effort is a stagger- ing contemplation. It is strange that no one, or very few, seem to feel the necessity of definitions in the statement of war objectives. The declarations of Chamberlain and the others are strikingly reminiscent of the last war in their rhetorical vagueness. Perhaps the British people and French are satisfied to hear from their leaders. that the best part of the male population in this country is asked to face death for the preservation of international order and in the cause of democracy and freedom. But I would think it would be far better to face the issue honestly and with realism. To say very frankly to the people that the stake for which they are fighting is the maintenance of the British Empire and the French possess- ions; that if these go and the German system dominates Europe, it will mean that the British workman and the French man in the street must vive up part of what he has and accept the standard of which will be lower than that which he has enjoyed in order that the average German may have a better living. There is not enough to go around for all and so it is a question of those who possess more to give up a part to those who are less fortunately situated. That is the issue as everybody knows, and one for which I am certain men would fight very courageously and tenaciously. But the old shiboleths of freedom, the preservation of democracy etc. seem to serve their part very well and appear adequate enough. I wonder if our newspapers over there are commenting upon the wisdom of the American Neutrality policy as brought into relief by the troubles of all other neutrals through - 4 - through the indescriminate mine operations of the Germans. It is a singular thing that our country is not involved while the Scandanavian countries, Holland - even Japan and Italy have suffered losses through German mine explosions. I am satisfied that we can, by making the sacrifice our Neutrality Law imposes, keep out of this war and if there is any living American who can keep us out, it is the Pre- sident. The Irish are disappointed with the suspension of all American shipping, but they will have a hard time making out a case for the resumption of this shipping. No one knows better than the President the hazards of the South West Irish coast as an approach to English ports. Galway is in another area and something may be said for this North-Western port but we must go slowly, bearing in mind our paramount purpose - to avoid even possible involvement. Ireland is determined in its policy of neutrality and is entirely practical about this policy. The country will not serve as any pipe line for war supplies to England. The Ministry of Supplies has the situation well in hand and doe S not permit shipments above the normal pre-war orders of Eng- land. There are no munitions going from Ireland to England and this Government is not deceived by the prospect of war riches. They are willing to make sacrifices for the cause of peace and, while I was sceptical about their policy to remain neutral at the beginning of the war, I am now com- pelled to believe that they will stay out like ourselves. I suppose you will se Kennedy and he will tell you all about the London scene. I asked him to revive the legend of the Forgotten Man in the direction of one marooned on this Island. This is a long effusion but perhaps you can take it out in the country with you and read it at your less pressing moments. I have heard a few times from Tony and Margaret. They are at Angers, looking after many lean Poles. Let me hear from you when you have a moment - if only a brief word. Affectionately yours, John PsF Inford Ireland Dublin, December 7, 1939. PERSONAL. file Dear Mr. President: de Valera thinks it will be a long war. His reasoning is that the real forces are not yet arrayed; the war has not yet reached a definitive state. I urged him very earnestly to go to Geneva as President to preside over the Twentieth Assembly of the League. I pointed out that if this war continued, even at its present desultory tempo, no country could withstand the terrific armament expenditure, and the result in another two years would be chaos. I told him what a wonderful opportunity he had for leadership at this time if he voiced the moral issue involved in the invasion of Finland. But he spoke very bitterly and cynically of The President Franklin D. Roosevelt, The White House. -2- of the League, describing it as "debris". He said the only country which could possibly speak with any effectiveness now was the United States, and it would do no good for us if we did not follow words with action. The only language which had persuasion these days, he said, were "Tanks, Bombs, and Machine Guns". He is sending only a Civil Service servant to Geneva, and is sure the meeting of the League will be a fizzle. I talked to him at great length in an attempt to point out the opportunity he had for a genuine peace effort at this time, but he could not see it that way. I am reporting my conversation in detail in a despatch to the State Department. Purpectfully yours