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Subject Files: Working Group on Global Climate Change #2 (IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and RSWG (Response Strategy Working Group) [Letters, Memorandums, Reports, and Other Information][1]
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Subject Files: Working Group on Global Climate Change #2 (IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and RSWG (Response Strategy Working Group) [Letters, Memorandums, Reports, and Other Information][1]
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These records pertain to Global Climate Change.
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Climate Change) and RSWG (Response Strategy Working Group) [Letters, Memorandums, Reports, and
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THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
February 19, 1991
MEMORANDUM FOR THE GLOBAL CHANGE STRATEGY TASK FORCE
FROM:
D. ALLAN BROMLEY
NMfn
SUBJECT:
Global Change Strategy Task Force Meeting
The Global Change Strategy Task Force will meet on Thursday, February 21, 1991, at
4 p.m. in Room 324 of the Old Executive Office Building.
We will review the results of the first negotiating session of the Framework
Convention on Climate Change and discuss where the negotiations may be headed
over the upcoming months. Bob Reinstein, US Negotiator for the Framework
Convention, will present a summary of the meetings as well as a discussion of the
final decisions made during the two-week session.
Attached for your reference are copies of the UN Press Release, which provides a
good summary of the negotiations, and the Annex on Organizational Matters. The
latter document defines how the negotiations will be conducted and includes
guidelines for the negotiations, organization of Working Groups, and a listing of
several procedural points.
UNITED
A
NATIONS
General Assembly
Distr.
LIMITED
A/AC.237/L.5
14 February 1991
ORIGINAL: ENGLISH
INTERGOVERNMENTAL NEGOTIATING
COMMITTEE FOR A FRAMEWORK
CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE
First session
Washington, D.C., 4-14 February 1991
Agenda item 3
ORGANIZATIONAL MATTERS
Draft decision submitted by the Chairman
Establishment of subsidiary organs and organization of work
The Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a Framework Convention on
Climate Change
1. Decides to establish two Working Groups to assist the Committee in
carrying out its work;
2. Adopts the guidelines for the negotiations, organization of Working
Groups and procedural points contained in the annex to the present decision.
ANNEX
I. GUIDELINES FOR THE NEGOTIATIONS
1. All items in the negotiations should be dealt with in an integrated
manner and on the basis of General Assembly resolution 45/212 of
21 December 1990, which inter alia, reaffirms the principles embodied in
General Assembly resolutions 44/207 and 44/228, both of 22 December 1989.
2. The work of the groups must be interrelated and will be integrated by the
plenary. To this end the two Working Groups will report regularly to the
plenary.
3. Funding commitments, mechanisms and means for transfer of technology to
developing countries, as well as matters concerning international scientific
and technological co-operation, should be an integral element in the
negotiations.
WA.91-186 MT023E
A/AC.237/L.5
English
Page 2
4. The final agreement on the convention should cover in an integrated
manner all areas of common concern, including, inter alia: (a) emissions;
(b) sinks; (c) transfer of technology; (d) financial resources and funding
mechanisms for developing countries; (e) international scientific and
technological co-operation; and (f) measures to counter the effects of climate
change and its possible adverse impact, particularly on small island
developing countries, low-lying coastal, arid and semi-arid areas, tropical
regions liable to seasonal flooding and areas prone to drought and
desertification.
II. ORGANIZATION OF WORKING GROUPS
5. The Working Groups will prepare draft texts for consideration by the
plenary.
A. Working Group I: Commitments
6. Working Group I will prepare a text related to:
(a) Appropriate commitments, beyond those required by existing
agreements, for limiting and reducing net emissions of carbon dioxide and
other greenhouse gases, on the protection, enhancement and increase of sinks
and reservoirs, and in support of measures to counter the adverse effects of
climate change, taking into account that contributions should be equitably
differentiated according to countries' responsibilities and their level of
development;
(b) Appropriate commitments on adequate and additional financial
resources to enable developing countries to meet incremental costs required to
fulfil the commitments referred to above and to facilitate the transfer of
technology expeditiously on a fair and most favourable basis;
(c) Commitments addressing the special situation of developing
countries, taking into account their development needs, including, inter alia,
the problems of small island developing countries, low-lying coastal areas and
areas threatened by erosion, flooding, desertification and high urban
atmospheric pollution; also taking into account the problems of economies in
transition.
B. Working Group II: Mechanisms
7. Working Group II will prepare a text related to:
(a) Legal and institutional mechanisms, including, inter alia, entry
into force, withdrawal, compliance and assessment and review;
A/AC.237/L.5
English
Page 3
(b) Legal and institutional mechanisms related to scientific
co-operation, monitoring and information;
(c) Legal and institutional mechanisms related to adequate and
additional financial resources and technological needs and co-operation, and
technology transfer to developing countries corresponding to the commitments
agreed to in Working Group I.
III. PROCEDURAL POINTS
8. There will be no more than two meetings held at any one time within the
Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee.
9. There will be no inter-sessional meetings of the Intergovernmental
Negotiating Committee Working Groups or any subgroups.
10. All drafting is to be done by each Working Group, within the framework of
its mandate, subject to any subsequent need for harmonization.
11. If and when it is deemed necessary, the Working Groups, subject to the
approval of the Intergovermental Negotiating Committee, may establish ad hoc
subgroups to deal with specific issues, with due respect to the understanding
that no more than two meetings may be held at any one time. These groups
would be reviewed continually to allow reformulation and adjustment in order
to reflect the progress of the negotiations.
-
United NATURE
NM
Press Release
Department of Public Information News Coverage Service New York
Intergovernmental
ENV/CCC/11
Negotiating Committee
14 February 1991
on Climate Change
11th Meeting (PM)
and Round-up of Session
INTERGOVERNMENTAL NEGOTIATING COMMITTEE FOR FRAMEWORK CONVENTION
ON CLIMATE CHANGE, WASHINGTON, D.C., 4-14 FEBRUARY
Sets up Working Groups; Adopts Guidelines for Negotiations;
Urges Contributions for Developing Countries' Participation in Process
The Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a framework
convention on climate change this afternoon established two Working
Groups to assist it in negotiating an international instrument to
reduce global climate warming.
Working Group I will deal with appropriate commitments for
reducing greenhouse gas emissions, additional financial resources to
enable developing countries to fulfil their obligations under the
convention, technology transfers and the special needs of developing
countries. Working Group II will consider the legal and institutional
mechanisms of preparing the framework convention.
In the same decision, the Committee adopted guidelines for the
negotiations on a framework convention on climate change, the
organization of the Working Groups and procedural points on the
holding of meetings and on the drafting to be done -- all contained in
an annex.
It emphasized in those guidelines that all items in the
negotiations should be dealt with in an integrated manner; that the
(more)
For information modia-not an Micial record
- 2 -
Press Release ENV/CCC/11
14 February 1991
work of the groups must be interrelated and integrated by the plenary;
and that funding commitments, mechanisms, technology transfer and
international scientific and technolological co-operation should be an
integral element in the negotiations,
Concluding nearly two weeks of deliberations at the Westfields
International Conference Center, near Washington, D.C., the Committee
also adopted a decision urging contributions to a special voluntary
fund set up by the General Assembly to support the participation of
developing countries in the negotiating process.
As of 13 February, contributions to the fund totalled $1.25
million, and a number of countries indicated that they were
considering pledges, some on a bilateral basis. Today, the
representative of Japan announced a $200,000 contribution to the fund.
Regarding relations with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) -- an expert group whose scientific and technical
findings on climate change formed the basis of an assessment report
which was before the Committee during the session -- the Committee
concluded that relationship had already been set out in General
Assembly resolution 45/212.
The Committee said the IPCC was not a negotiating forum and that
in continuing its work, as mandated by the United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the
Panel could provide technical and scientific assistance in response to
the requests of the Committee.
The Committee, in another decision, expressed its profound
gratitude to the Government and people of the United States for their
warm and generous hospitality and for the excellent facilities
provided during the Committee's first session.
At the final meeting today, the Committee adopted, as amended,
its report (document A/AC.237/L/1 and Corrs. and Adds 1-4), which was
introduced by Vice-Chairman and Rapporteur Ion Draghici (Romania).
Concerning the dates for future sessions, it decided,
provisionally, that its second session would be held at Nairobi, from
1 to 15 June; and that the second and third sessions would take place
at Geneva, from 9 to 18 September and 9 to 20 December, respectively.
The Committee postponed the election of officers of the two
Working Groups until its next session, because of a lack of consensus
among the regional groups on representation.
(more)
- 3 -
Press Release ENV/CCC/11
14 February 1991
The Executive Secretary of the Committee and Director of the ad
hoc secretariat made a statement on funding of the negotiating
process, including the secretariat's operating budget.
The representatives of the Soviet Union, Vanuatu, Cuba, Greece
and Zaire, on behalf of the five regional groups, expressed thanks to
the host Government, the Chairman and Secretariat staff.
In a concluding statement, the Chairman, Jean Ripert (France),
warned delegates not to leave the session believing that all the
Committee had done was talk about procedural things. Because of the
nature of the endeavour, concerns and interests, it had been necessary
to spend time talking about mandates. Delegates, he said, should
leave the meeting with an awareness of having done useful work.
The Assembly, in resolution 45/212, established the
Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee to prepare an effective
framework convention on climate change, containing appropriate
commitments and any related legal instruments as might be agreed upon.
That instrument, the Assembly said, should be completed prior to
the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de
Janoiro, Brazil, in June 1992, and opened for signature during that
Conference.
A "framework" for a convention consists of a statement of general
principles identifying the major issues to be considered and defining
general areas where Governments should assume commitments to specific
actions.
In that connection, the guidelines for the negotiations, which
the Committee adopted today, state that the final agreement on the
convention should cover, in an integrated manner, all areas of common
concern, including emissions; sinks (forests); transfer of technology;
financial resources and funding mechanisms for developing countries;
international scientific and technological co-operation; and measures
to counter the effects of climate change and its possible adverse
impact, particularly on small island developing countries, low-lying
coastal, arid and semi-arid areas, tropical regions liable to seasonal
flooding and areas prone to drought and desertification.
The first session of the Committee began on 4 February. Opening
the meeting on behalf of Secretary-General Javier Perez de Cuellar was
Antoine Blanca, Director-General for Development and International
Economic Co-operation. Representing the host Government, the United
States, was Michael R. Deland, Chairman of the President's Council on
Environmental Quality.
(more)
- 4 -
Press Release ENV/CCC/11
14 February 1991
Also addressing the opening meeting were the Executive Director
of UNEP, Mostafa K. Tolba, and the Secretary-General of the WMO,
G.O.P. Obasi. Those two agencies gave momentum to the negotiation of
a convention on climate change in 1988 when they jointly established
the IPCC.
During three days of general debate, on preparations for the
elaboration of an instrument on climate change, the Committee heard a
total of 76 speakers -- 68 Member States and eight representatives of
specialized agencies, intergovernmental and non-governmental
organizations.
Statement by Executive Secretary
MICHAEL ZAMMIT CUTAJAR, Executive Secrtary of the Committee and
Director of its ad hoc secretariat, speaking on the funding of the
negotiating process, including the secretariat's operating budget,
said the adequacy of estimates made for staff and conference servicing
costs, as well as the source of funding for heads of expenditure,
would have to be examined in the light of the work plan emerging from
the session. He recalled that in adopting the resolution which
established the Committee and its secretariat, the General Assembly
had received a statement indicating that no additional appropriations
would be required in respect of the programme budget for the 1990-1991
biennium. No reference had been made about the source of funding for
heads of expenditure.
The expenditures he had in mind, he said, were, for example,
requirements for general operating costs, travel, consultants and
documentation. Costs might also be incurred for activities aimed at
raising awareness of the issues under negotiation, particularly in
developing countries. Those could include public information work and
dialogue with non-governmental organizations. When those matters had
been clarified, it would be possible to estimate the overall cost of
the negotiating process, to match that estimate with the resources
available from the United Nations budget and from the budgets of other
entities of the United Nations system.
It was his intention, he said, in consultation with the Chairman,
to present such estimates to the Committee in advance of its next
session. That would enable Governments to assess the need for
contributions to the trust fund and to respond to it, hopefully in
advance of the session.
The question of staffing and location of the secretariat would be
taken up with the responsible departments at United Nations
Headquarters, he continued. No one, other than himself, had yet been
assigned to the secretariat of the Committee, and the ad hoc
(more)
- 5 -
Press Release ENV/CCC/11
14 February 1991
arrangements for servicing the current meeting were specific to it.
On staffing, he would consult with the executive heads of UNEP and
WMO, as well as other bodies, on the possibilities for secondment of
stall.
As regards the location of the secretariat, he said there were
several options in Geneva, which he would explore on his return there
next week. It would be desirable to find a location which would
maximize the ability of the Committee secretariat to draw upon
existing infrastructures, thereby minimizing its own staffing and
support needs. He drew attention to document A/AC.237/INF.2, entitled
"Temporary secretariat arrangements", which indicated the present
office address in Geneva where he might be reached until further
notice.
Action on Organizational Matters
The decisions adopted by the Committee on organizational matters
(document A/AC.237/L.5) cover three aspects of its future work:
guidelines for the negotiations; organization of working groups; and
procedural points.
The mandates of the two Working Groups, which will prepare draft
texts for consideration by the plenary, are as follows:
Working Group I, on commitments, will prepare a text containing
commitments for limiting and reducing net emmissions of carbon dioxide
and other greenhouse gases; on the protection, enhancement and
increase of sinks and reservoirs; and in support of measures to
counter the adverse effects of climate change, taking into account
that contributions should be equitably differentiated according to
countries' responsibilities and their level of development.
That text will also contain commitments on adequate and
additional financial resources to enable developing countries to meet
the costs required to fulfil their commitments, as well as commitments
to facilitate the transfer of technology on a fair and most favourable
basis.
The text to be prepared will also include commitments addressing
the special situation of developing countries, taking into account
their development needs, including the problems of small island
developing countries, low-lying coastal areas and areas threatened by
erosion, flooding, desertification and high urban atmospheric
pollution, as well as the problems of economies in transition.
Working Group II, on mechanisms, will prepare a text containing
legal and institutional mechanisms related to: entry into force,
(more)
- 6 -
Press Release ENV/CCC/11
14 February 1991
withdrawal, compliance and assessment and review of the convention;
scientific co-operation, monitoring and information; and adequate and
additional financial resources and technological needs and co-
operation, as well as technology transfer to developing countries
corresponding to the commitments agreed to in Working Group I.
On procedural points, the Committee decided that there will be no
more than than two meetings held at any one time; no inter-sessional
meetings either of the working groups of any subgroups; all drafting
is to be done by each working group, within the framework of its
mandate, subject to any subsequent need for harmonization; and, if and
when necessary, the working groups, subject to Committee approval, may
establish ad hoc subgroups to deal with specific issues, on the
understanding that no more than two meetings may be held at any one
time.
Relationship with IPCC
Stating that the modalities of its relationship with the IPCC had
been set out in Assembly resolution 45/212, the Committee welcomed
suggestions that the Panel should continue with its work (document
A/AC.237/L.1/Add.4). It said the Panel was not a negotiating forum,
and that in continuing the work mandated by UNEP and WMO, the Panel
could provide technical and scientific assistance in response to the
Committee's requests.
The Committee said it was desirable that the IPCC continue to
seek and achieve the full participation of developing countries in all
aspects of its activities, and that it should encourage the widest
possible participation of experts and of relevant international and
other organizations in its work. It said the IPCC's work should cover
both the short term and the long term, helping the Committee in its
work on the framework convention.
Special Voluntary Fund
In a decision on the use of the special voluntary fund to support
the participation of developing countries in its work (document
A/AC.237/L.1/Add.4), the Committee welcomed the intention of several
Governments and a regional organization to contribute to the fund;
urged Governments which had not yet done so to contribute at an early
date; and expressed the hope that those which had already done so
would make further contributions. It also urged relevant United
Nations bodies, in particular the United Nations Development Programme
(UNDP), UNEP and WMO, to contribute generously to the fund.
The Committee requested the Executive Secretary, in determining
the eligibility of countries for access to the fund, to bear in mind
(more)
- 7 -
Press Release ENV/CCC/11
14 February 1991
the following, in addition to the criteria set out in resolution
45/212: the vulnerability of countries to the rise in sea level,
drought and desertification and severe weather disturbances; the
importance of financing the attendance of experts, including
scientists, as members of delegations from developing countries;
adequate regional representation of developing countries; and the
important role of regional organizations in providing suitable
technical support to the effective participation of developing
countries in the negotiating process.
Donors and recipients of financial assistance were invited to
keep the Executive Secretary informed of their relevant funding
arrangements so that the special voluntary fund might be used to the
greatest effect. And the Executive Secretary was requested to
facilitate the full participation of all countries entitled to
participate, by ensuring the timely distribution of notifications,
documentation and other information well in advance of Committee
sessions.
Rules of Procedure
The Committee adopted its rules of procedure (document
A/AC.237/5) on 11 February. Up until then, difficulties had centred
on those rules dealing with decision-making, in particular, rule 27 on
general agreement, and rule 29 on majority required.
As adopted, rule 27 states: "The Committee shall make its best
endeavours to ensure that the work of the Committee is accomplished by
general agreement. If, in the consideration of any matter of
substance, all efforts by the Committee and its Chairman, pursuant to
the provisions of rule 5 (on general powers of the Chairman) have been
made and no agreement appears to be attainable, the Committee shall
thereupon decide upon the staps to be taken in accordance with rule
29.
Rule 29, as adopted, states: "Subject to rule 27, decisions of
the Committee and its subsidiary organs shall be taken in accordance
with the rules of procedure of the General Assembly and its
committees, respectively." The original version had called for
decisions on all substantive matters to be taken by a two-thirds
majority of the repesentatives present and voting. The Assembly's
rules require & simple majority of those present and voting.
History
The negotiation of a framework convention on climate change is
the latest development in a process which gained momentum in 1988 when
the WMO and UNEP jointly established the Intergovernmental Panel on
(more)
- 8 -
Press Release ENV/CCC/11
14 February 1991
Climate Change. The Panel, consisting of climatologists, scientists,
government officials, policy advisers and environmentalists, examined
all available scientific information on climatic change, assessed its
environmental and socio-economic impact and proposed possible action.
After holding four sessions, the Panel issued its first assessment
report which provided the most authoritative scientific and technical
findings to date on climate change. That report was the main
background document before the Committee at this first session.
In 1988, the Assembly endorsed the establishment of the IPCC. In
1989, it emphasized the need to begin, as a matter of urgency, the
drafting of a framework convention on climate change. The preparatory
meeting for the Committee's first session was the meeting convened by
WMO and UNEP in Geneva (24-26 September 1990) of the Ad Hoc Working
Group of Government Representatives to Prepare for Negotiations on a
Framework Convention on Climate Change.
Among the recommendations of that Group was the establishment of
a single negotiating process to discuss policy issues and respond to
Assembly decisions. At its current forty-fifth session, the Assembly
decided to set up the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee to
prepare a framework convention on climate change, to be completed
prior to the 1992 Environment and Development Conference in Brazil.
Officers
The Committee elected Jean Ripert (France) as its Chairman, and
elected four Vice-Chairmen: Ahmed Djoghlaf (Algeria), Raul Estrada
Oyuela (Argentina), T. Prabhakar Menon (India) (later replaced by
Chandrashekhar Dasgupta of India) and Ion Draghici (Romania). Mr.
Draghici also acted as Rapporteur. The Alliance of Small Island
States sought the representation of small island developing countries
on the bureau.
Michael Zammit Cutajar was appointed Executive Secretary of the
Committee and Director of its ad hoc secretariat. Assuming his duties
on 11 February, he said he was convinced the Committee could
contribute to a more efficient and equitable use of the world's
resources to satisfy human needs and aspirations. Given that many
actions required to counter climate change were also justified on
other grounds, he saw prospects for a framework convention with
substantive commitments and with productive linkages to more general
programmatic initiatives in other policy areas.
(more)
- 9 -
Press Release ENV/CCC/11
14 February 1991
Participants
The first session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee
was attended by the representatives of 101 States, 11 United Nations
offices, seven intergovernmental and 69 non-governmental
organizations.
* *** *
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
WASHINGTON
MEMBER OF THE COUNCIL
January 10, 1991
Chrise
MEMORANDUM FOR NANCY MAYNARD
FROM:
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE
BA
SUBJECT:
Greenhouse Paper
I think the draft paper is very good. A section on
economics, and some minor editorial suggestions are outlined
below.
Page 2, para 3: While impacts may depend on regional
predictions, the economic viability of response measures does
not. The last sentence of this paragraph should therefore be
deleted. The one before it can go too.
Page 2: I would add a new section on economics following
the current science section that reads as follows:
Economics: Policy in this area must weigh the economic
costs and human consequences of proposed response measures
against the benefits associated with any resulting change in the
timing and magnitude of any possible warming. Current analyses
of the costs of a commitment to permanently hold carbon dioxide
emissions at 80 or 100 percent of present levels show widely
varying assessments of impacts on output and economic growth.
Most studies using aggregate methods show an impact in the range
of 0.5 percent to 1 percent of GNP (about $35 to $70 billion) at
the turn of the century. Particular sectors, such as coal
mining, would be particularly hard hit. Also, because the share
of fossil fuels in the total primary energy supply varies widely
across industrialized countries, there are likely to be
significant trade and competitiveness effects.
Some "bottoms up" analyses show that the substitution of
more energy-efficient technologies (better lightbulbs, more
insulation) can contribute to emissions reduction in the near
term without raising the lifecycle cost of energy-using
activities. Such evaluations do not account for differences in
taste and usage across consumers or the need to weigh energy-
efficiency investments against alternative uses of capital.
Obtainable energy savings and emissions reductions are almost
certainty lower than estimates of technological potential.
2
Maintenance of any constant emissions level implies an ever
increasing percentage reduction from an emissions baseline that
is expected to grow as the economy expands. Since the marginal
cost of emissions reduction increases after the cheapest
opportunities are exploited, both aggregate and "bottoms up"
modelling suggests that the costs of a constant emissions target
are likely to rise over time. Finally, in considering the
possible benefits of emissions reductions, it must be recognized
that climate processes depend on world emissions, which are
dominated by expected emissions increases outside of the
industrialized countries.
Page 3: In second paragraph under Scenario for First
Session substitute "with its potential for sharing any
obligations across sources and sinks, gases, and countries" for
"with its associated market-oriented implementation potential. "
The current phrase is too suggestive of obligations.
Page 4: Add a sentence under Research, systematic
observations, and Analysis that indicates that this area includes
both science and economics.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
the
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
WASHINGTON
with
{
MEMBER OF THE COUNCIL
November 16, 1990
MEMORANDUM FOR ROBERT GRADY, OMB
BA
FROM:
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE
Jank
SUBJECT:
Environmental Legislation Signing Statement
your
As you know, the Council of Economic Advisers has
recommended against signing S. 169. We have not been asked to
review any of the other pieces of legislation listed in the fact
sheet, so it is difficult for us to comment on their description
in the draft release.
Assuming that S. 169 is to be signed, the language in the
draft signing statement should be modified in a number of
respects. In order to be consistent with the President's stated
intentions, we should emphatically make the point that research
into economic and social interactions with climate processes is
an integral part of the U.S. Global Change Research Program. It
is important to put this spin on the signing statement because
the legislation itself does not speak strongly one way or the
other on the issue. It is also important to avoid any
implication that USGCRP is the exclusive source of knowledge
relevant to global change policymaking. CEA would recommend the
following language after the first two sentences:
The salient features of global environmental change
issues are the significant uncertainties associated with
predicting the behavior of many important earth and
biological processes and the interaction of these processes
with human activities. World leaders are taking an
increasing interest in both the scientific issues
surrounding global change and in the economic and social
implications of global environmental changes and possible
policy responses. S. 169 endorses the Administration's
approach to global change research by codifying the
Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences (CEES), which
was created by the President through the Federal
Coordinating Council on Science, Engineering, and
Technology. The CEES is charged with developing a U.S.
Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) to create knowledge
that can be used in addressing global environmental policy
issues.
CC: James Cicconi
action: Howard D
CCRLS, JBT, HEC
Document No.
WHITE HOUSE STAFFING MEMORA
DATE: 11/15/90
8:00 a.m. 11/16/90
ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY:
SUBJECT:
FACT SHEET ON ENVIRONMENTAL LEGISLATION
ACTION FYI
ACTION FYI
VICE PRESIDENT
MCCLURE
SUNUNU
NEWMAN
SCOWCROFT
PORTER
DARMAN
ROGICH
CARD
UNTERMEYER
CICCONI
BOSKIN
DEMAREST
DELAND
FITZWATER
BROMLEY
GRAY
GRADY
HAGIN
HOLIDAY
REMARKS:
Please provide any comments/recommendations directly to Bob Grady
by 8:00 a.m. on Friday with a copy to my office. Thanks.
11/16
RESPONSE:
James W. Cicconi
Assistant to the President
and Deputy to the Chief of Staff
Ext. 2702
THE WHITE HOUSE
Office of the Press Secretary
For Immediate Release
November 16, 1990
President Bush today signed eight pieces of legislation that
benefit the environment by protecting natural resources and
advancing environmental research and education.
PROTECTION OF NATURAL RESOURCES
The Antarctic Protection Act of 1990 (H.R. 3977) strengthens
environmental protection for Antarctica -- a pristine, unspoiled
wilderness area whose unique environment contains a variety of
species of wildlife, and offers a natural laboratory from which
to monitor critical aspects of stratospheric ozone depletion and
global change. There is a recognized need in the international
community to better protect this fragile environment from
unrestrained commercial activity. H.R. 3977 offers this
protection. By placing a prohibition on United States mineral
activities in Antarctica until a new international minerals
agreement has been approved by Congress, the United States is
sending a strong environmental message to the rest of the world.
This legislation was amended by Congress in a manner that can be
considered consistent with the Administration's position of
advocating a forceful environment protection agreement to
supplement the Antarctic Treaty.
The Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary and Protection Act
(H.R. 5909) designates 2,600 square nautical miles of coastal
waters off the Florida Keys as our Nation's ninth national marine
sanctuary. This designation provides long-term protection to the
ecologically unique natural resources found in the Florida coral
reef. In particular, the coral reef will be protected from
vessel groundings that have damaged the reef in the recent past,
as well as from water pollution and commercial exploitation. At
the same time, uses of the Sanctuary, which are compatible with
the goal of protection, will be allowed to continue. The
sanctuary designation will permit the enjoyment of the Sanctuary
resources by citizens today, while also protecting them for the
enjoyment of future generations.
The Omnibus Natural Resources and Wildlife Program (H.R. 3338)
provides for various important programs that will result in the
protection and restoration of some of the Nation's most
significant natural resources. In particular, H.R. 3338
establishes two new National Wildlife Refuges (NWR) -- the 18,000
acre Bayou Cocodrie NWR in Louisiana, and the 7,500 acre Walkill
River NWR in New Jersey. In addition, H.R. 3338 increases the
authorized funding level for the National Fish and Wildlife
Foundation. Since 1984, the Foundation has been able to leverage
scarce Federal dollars from the private sector to fund projects
instrumental in the protection and restoration of wetlands and
other fish and wildlife habitat. H.R. 3338 also establishes a
similar organization called the National Forest Foundation, which
will conduct activities in support of the Department of
Agriculture's Forest Service. Finally, H.R. 3338 enhances
regional marine research programs through the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration, requires stepped-up environmental
law enforcement efforts by the Environmental Protection Agency
(not less than 200 criminal investigators by 1995), and
authorizes additional funding for fish restoration programs on
certain New England tributaries.
The Red Rock Canyon National Conservation Area Establishment Act
of 1990 (H.R. 4559) designates 83,100 acres in southern Nevada as
the Red Rock Canyon National Conservation area. Red Rock Canyon,
located in Nevada's Mojave Desert, is rich in geologic, scenic,
wildlife and recreational resources. The site has been home to
several cultures, including the prehistoric Anasazi and Pueblo
Indians, and later the Paiutes. The area also provides habitat
for a diverse wildlife population ranging from desert bighorn
sheep and wild horses and burros to the threatened desert
tortoise and Gila Monster. Several bird species inhabit the
area, including the endangered peregrine falcon and the golden
eagle. The Department of the Interior's Bureau of Land Management
(BLM) will manage this conservation to conserve, protect, and
enhance these important natural resources. The core 62,000 acres
of this National Conservation Area are already managed by BLM
along with the Nevada Division of State Parks. This legislation
authorizes Interior to acquire the additional 21,000 acres
through donation, purchase, exchange or transfer from another
Federal agency.
The Coastal Barrier Improvement Act of 1990 (H.R. 2840) will
almost triple the size of the existing Coastal Barrier Resource
System. H.R. 2840 adds 818,000 acres to the System, bringing its
total size to over 1.25 million acres, encompassing 1,211 miles
of shoreline along the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Great Lakes
coasts. H.R. 2840 helps protect the Nation's threatened coastal
barrier resources (which offer superlative fish and wildlife
habitat, key physical protection to coastal shore areas, and
outstanding places for outdoor recreation), by limiting Federal
expenditures and assistance for development within designated
coastal barrier areas. It also requires that any Federal
property found to be part of a coastal barrier unit be
transferred to the System. In addition, it establishes a
Coastal Barrier Task Force, comprised of 11 Federal agency
representatives, to analyze and report on the management and
effectiveness of the Coastal Barrier Resource System.
-2-
RESEARCH AND EDUCATION
The National Environmental Education Act (S. 3176) marks a major
step in the Nation's environmental progress, laying the
groundwork for all generations of Americans to better understand
our responsibilities of stewardship and wise use of our resources
-- in essence, to improve this Nation's environmental literacy.
While the legislation enhances learning opportunities for all
ages, it focuses especially on students and their teachers, by
including the President's proposal for Presidential awards to
teachers for excellence in environmental education. Various
other provisions of the bill encourage creativity at the local
level through grants, awards and training programs, and provide
for leadership at the National level through the creation of an
Office of Environmental Education and a broad-based advisory
committee. These efforts will enable the education community to
help America preserve the environment for today's generations and
generations of future Americans.
The Global Change Research Act of 1990 (S. 169) underscores U.S.
world leadership in global change research. The FY 1991 Budget
proposed over a billion dollars (a 57 percent increase over FY
1990) for this important research program, which Congress
generally endorsed. Specially, S. 169 will help the Nation
reduce the significant scientific uncertainty associated with
addressing precessing global environmental issues. It endorses
the Administration's effort by codifying the Committee on Earth
and Environmental Sciences (CEES), which was created by the
President through the Federal Coordinating Council on Science,
Engineering, and Technology. The CEES would be charged with
developing a U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) to
create the scientific knowledge needed to address global
environmental policy issues. World leaders are taking an
increased interest in the economics and social implications of
and The interaction
There process with human acturity.
global environmental changes. The salient feature of these
environmental changes is the significant scientiff uncertainty
associated with predicting the behavior of many Earth processes
The Great Lakes Critical Programs Act of 1990 (H.R. 4323) will
provide a substantial boost to America's efforts to clean up the
Great Lakes in cooperation with our Canadian neighbors. Much
progress has been made in the past, but much progress must still
be achieved, especially with respect to cleaning up the toxic
pollution problems that make many of the fish in the Great Lakes
unsafe to eat. The bill provides tools to make progress on much
needed planning and cleanup activities. It will bring closer the
day when the people of the United States and Canada will be able
to not only admire the physical beauty of the continent's largest
lakes, but also to once again safely enjoy the bountiful
fisheries throughout the lakes. The bill also focuses Federal,
state, and local actions, in cooperation with Canada, on Lake
Champlain, another body of water that is important recreationally
and historically to the people of the northeastern United States.
-3-
either surtific and economic or nerther just plan knowledge.
Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet
(George Bush Library)
Document No.
Subject/Title of Document
Date
Restriction
Class.
and Type
01. Form
Re: Request for Appointments (2 pp.)
11/13/90
(b)(6)
Collection:
Record Group:
Bush Presidential Records
Office:
Economic Advisers, Council of
Series:
Schmalensee, Richard, Files
Subseries:
WHORM Cat.:
File Location:
Group on Global Climate Change #2 (IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and RSWG
(Response Strategy Working Group) [Letters, Memorandums, Reports, and Other Information][1]
Date Closed:
2/16/2018
OA/ID Number:
03679-012
FOIA/SYS Case #:
2017-0310-F
Appeal Case #:
Re-review Case #:
Appeal Disposition:
P-2/P-5 Review Case #:
Disposition Date:
AR Case #:
MR Case #:
AR Disposition:
MR Disposition:
AR Disposition Date:
MR Disposition Date:
RESTRICTION CODES
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) [5 U.S.C. 552(b)]
Deed of Gift Restrictions
(b)(1) National security classified information
C(1) Closed by Executive Order 13526, governing access to national
(b)(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an
security information
agency
C(2) Closed by statute or by the agency which originated the information
(b)(3) Release would violate a Federal statute
C(3) Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of
(b)(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial
gift [formerly listed as only C]
information
PRM. Removed as a personal record misfile
(b)(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion
of personal privacy
(b)(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement
purposes
Presidential Records Act - [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)]
(b)(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of
P-2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA]
financial institutions
P-5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President and
(b)(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information
his advisors, or between such advisors [(a)(5) of the PRA]
concerning wells
November 9, 1990
Warm
DOMESTIC POLICY COUNCIL
Working Group on Global Change
Task Force on Economic Costs
Bruce Bartlett
Deputy Assistant Secretary for
Economic Policy
Main Treasury, Room 3445
Club
Washington, D.C. 20220
Tel: 566-2768 FAX: 786-8452
Chay
Curtis Bohlen
Assistant Secretary
Tort
Oceans & International Environmental &
Scientific Affairs Bureau
Department of State, Room 7831
(if
Washington, D.C. 20520
Tel: 647-1554 FAX: 647-0217
J. Clarence Davies
Assistant Administrator
Policy, Planning and Evaluation
Environmental Protection Agency
401 M Street, S.W.
Room 1013 West Tower
Washington, D.C. 20460
Tel: 382-4332 FAX: 252-0275 & 252-0780
Bruce Gardner
Assistant Secretary for Economics
Department of Agriculture
14th & Independence Ave., S.W., Room 227E
WAshington, D.C. 20250
Tel: 447-4164 FAX: 475-4915
Teresa Gorman
Assistant to the President for
Policy Development
Office of Policy Development
Old EOB, Room 227
Washington, D.C. 20500
Tel: 456-6554 FAX: 456-7739
Robert E. Grady
Associate Director
Natural Resources Energy and Science
Office of Management and Budget
Old EOB, Room 260
Washington, D.C. 20500
Tel: 395-4844 FAX: 395-5730
2
C. Boyden Gray
Counsel to the President
White House, West Wing, 2d Floor
Washington, D.C. 20500
Tel: 456-2632 FAX: 456-6279
Mark Kerrigan
Principal Assoc Dep Under Secrtary
Policy, Planning and Analysis
Department of Energy, Room 7B-084
Washington, D.C. 20585
Tel: 586-4159 FAX: 586-5313
Nancy Maynard
Assistant Director for Environmental Affairs
Office of Science and Technology Policy
Old EOB, Room 431
Washington, D.C. 20500
Tel: 395-6202 FAX: 395-3719
Barry McBee
Special Assistant to the Secretary
to the Cabinet
Office of Cabinet Affairs
Old EOB, Room 235
Tel: 456-2800 FAX: 456-2223
Mark Plant
Deputy Under Secretary, Economic Affairs
Department of Commerce
14th & Constitution Ave., N.W., Room 4850
Washington, D.C. 20230
Tel: 377-3523 FAX: 377-0432
Robert Reinstein
Deputy Assistant Secretary
Bureau of Oceans, International
Environment & Scientific Affairs
Dept of State, Room 7825
Washington, D.C. 20520
Tel: 647-2232 FAX: 647-0217
John Schrote
Deputy Assistant Secretary
Policy, Management, and Budget
Department of the Interior, Room 6214
18th and C Streets, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20240
Tel: 208-4123 FAX: 208-4561
3
Linda Stuntz
Deputy Under Secretary for Policy,
Planning and Analysis
Department of Energy, Room 7B-098
1000 Independence Ave., S.W.
Washington, D.C. 20585
Tel: 586-5316 FAX: 586-5313
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
M
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
WASHINGTON
serve
November 9, 1990
MEMBER OF THE COUNCIL Chory
Tooh
MEMORANDUM FOR TASK FORCE ON ECONOMIC COSTS
FROM:
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE RA
the
SUBJECT:
Meeting Tuesday, November 13, 4:30
At today's meeting of the Global Change Strategy Task Force,
Bob Reinstein (DOS) announced that a technical meeting between
the U.S. and the E.C. would be held in Brussels, January 28-9, to
discuss why we and they have such different views of the cost of
reducing greenhouse gas emissions. My suggestion that our group
be tasked with preparing the U.S. materials for that meeting was
accepted.
Because it is important to begin our work soon ,and because
Bob has a full travel schedule, we will meet at 4:30 Tuesday with
him to discuss deliverable (s) and workplan(s). The meeting will
take place in 324 OEOB; please call Francine Obermiller (395-
5037) to arrange clearance.
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Date:
BRUCE 11/9/90 BARTLETT
Please deliver to:
TREASUNY RM 3445
FAX number of addressee: 706-8452
566
Telephone number of addressee: 2760
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE, MEMBER
From:
202-395-6947
FAX number of sender:
Telephone number of sender: 202-395-5036
Number of pages, including cover sheet:
2
TRANSMISSION REPORT
THIS DOCUMENT (REDUCED SAMPLE ABOVE)
WAS SENT
** COUNT **
# 2
*** SEND ***
NO
REMOTE STATION I.D.
START TIME
DURATION
#PAGES
COMMENT
1
202 786 8452
11- 9-90 5:14PM
1'26"
2
TOTAL 0:01'26"
2
XEROX TELECOPIER 7020
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Date:
J. 11/9/90 DAVIES
Please deliver to:
EPA -RM 101 3 WUST Town
FAX number of addressee: 252-0275
Telephone number of addressee: 302-4332
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE, MEMBER
From:
202-395-6947
FAX number of sender:
Telephone number of sender: 202-395-5036
Number of pages, including cover sheet:
2
TRANSMISSION REPORT
THIS DOCUMENT (REDUCED SAMPLE ABOVE)
WAS SENT
** COUNT **
# 2
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1
202 252 0275
11- 9-90 5:13PM
1'23"
2
TOTAL 0:01'23"
2
XEROX TELECOPIER 7020
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Date:
111 9/90
BRUCE CARDNER
Please deliver to:
USDA - RM 227E
FAX number of addressee: 475-4915
Telephone number of addressee: 447-4164
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE, MEMBER
From:
202-395-6947
FAX number of sender:
Telephone number of sender: 202-395-5036
Number of pages, including cover sheet:
2
TRANSMISSION REPORT
THIS DOCUMENT (REDUCED SAMPLE ABOVE)
WAS SENT
** COUNT **
# 2
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1
202 475 4915
11- 9-90 5:18PM
1'16"
2
TOTAL 0:01'16"
2
XEROX TELECOPIER 7020
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Date:
11/9/90
a orgent GRADY
Please deliver to:
OMB - 0000 -RM 260
FAX number of addressee:
5730
Telephone number of addressee: 4044
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE, MEMBER
From:
202-395-6947
FAX number of sender:
Telephone number of sender: 202-395-5036
Number of pages, including cover sheet: 2
TRANSMISSION REPORT
THIS DOCUMENT (REDUCED SAMPLE ABOVE)
WAS SENT
** COUNT **
# 2
*** SEND ***
NO
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1
2027752710
11- 9-90 5:16PM
1'22"
2
TOTAL 0:01'22"
2
XEROX TELECOPIER 7020
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Date:
11/9/90
Buy DEN GRAY
Please deliver to:
WH-WWW-20 - FLR
FAX number of addressee:
6279
Telephone number of addressee: 2632
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE, MEMBER
From:
202-395-6947
FAX number of sender:
Telephone number of sender: 202-395-5036
Number of pages, including cover sheet:
2
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Date:
11/9/90
TERESA GORMAN
Please deliver to:
OPD - GEOB - RM 227
FAX number of addressee:
6554
Telephone number of addressee:
7739
From:
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE, MEMBER
202-395-6947
FAX number of sender:
Telephone number of sender: 202-395-5036
Number of pages, including cover sheet:
2
TRANSMISSION REPORT
THIS DOCUMENT (REDUCED SAMPLE ABOVE)
WAS SENT
** COUNT **
# 2
*** SEND ***
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1
OPD
11- 9-90 5:26PM
1'14"
2
TOTAL 0:01'14"
2
XEROX TELECOPIER 7020
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Date:
11/9/90
NANCY MAYNARD
Please deliver to:
OSTP-OEUB-431
FAX number of addressee:
0719
Telephone number of addressee:
6202
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE, MEMBER
From:
202-395-6947
FAX number of sender:
Telephone number of sender: 202-395-5036
Number of pages, including cover sheet: 2
TRANSMISSION REPORT
THIS DOCUMENT (REDUCED SAMPLE ABOVE)
WAS SENT
** COUNT **
# 2
*** SEND ***
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1
2023953462
11- 9-90 5:34PM
1'15"
2
TOTAL 0:01'15"
2
XEROX TELECOPIER 7020
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Date:
11/9/90
MARK PLANT
Please deliver to:
Commence -RM 4050
FAX number of addressee: 377-0432
Telephone number of addressee: 377-3523
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE, MEMBER
From:
202-395-6947
FAX number of sender:
Telephone number of sender: 202-395-5036
Number of pages, including cover sheet: 2
TRANSMISSION REPORT
THIS DOCUMENT (REDUCED SAMPLE ABOVE)
WAS SENT
** COUNT **
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1
11- 9-90 5:09PM
1'17"
2
TOTAL 0:01'17"
2
XEROX TELECOPIER 7020
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Date:
JOHN SCHROTE
11/9/90
Please deliver to:
INTERIOR - RM 6214
206-4561
FAX number of addressee:
Telephone number of addressee: 208-4123
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE, MEMBER
From:
202-395-6947
FAX number of sender:
Telephone number of sender: 202-395-5036
2
Number of pages, Including cover sheet:
TRANSMISSION REPORT
THIS DOCUMENT (REDUCED SAMPLE ABOVE)
WAS SENT
** COUNT **
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1
92084561
11- 9-90
5:07PM
1'20"
2
TOTAL 0:01'20"
2
XEROX TELECOPIER 7020
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Date:
11/9/90
MARK KerriGan
Please deliver to:
DOE - RM 70.08 4
FAX number of addressee: 586-5313
Telephone number of addressee: 586-4159
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE, MEMBER
From:
202-395-6947
FAX number of sender:
Telephone number of sender: 202-395-5036
Number of pages, including cover sheet:
2
TRANSMISSION REPORT
THIS DOCUMENT (REDUCED SAMPLE ABOVE)
WAS SENT
** COUNT **
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1
202 586 5313
11- 9-90 4:57PM
1'17"
2
POWER INTERRUPTED
TOTAL 0:01'17"
2
XEROX TELECOPIER 7020
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Date:
INDUR 11/9/90 GOKLANY
Please deliver to:
FAX number of addressee:
200-4067 200 - 4067
Telephone number of addressee: 208- 4007 4951
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE, MEMBER
From:
202-395-6947
FAX number of sender:
Telephone number of sender: 202-395-5036
Number of pages, including cover sheet:
2
TRANSMISSION REPORT
THIS DOCUMENT (REDUCED SAMPLE ABOVE)
WAS SENT
** COUNT **
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2022084867
11- 9-90 5:28PM
1'37"
2
TOTAL 0:01'37"
2
XEROX TELECOPIER 7020
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Date:
11/9/90
BARRY MC BEE
Please deliver to:
OCA - GEOD - RM 235
FAX number of addressee:
2223
Telephone number of addressee: 6437
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE, MEMBER
From:
202-395-6947
FAX number of sender:
Telephone number of sender: 202-395-5036
Number of pages, including cover sheet: 2
MEMORANDUM
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
October 31, 1990
allot
TO:
FRANCINE
SUBJECT: Distribution (Mil of Climate Change Report
FROM:
DICK
While we await word from DOE regarding their distribution of the
white paper, we may as well start sending copies to folks we know
they won't cover. Please get me the delegate list from the White
House conference and, in the meantime, send copies of the paper
(regular mail except to Europe) as follows:
Boskin, Taylor, Broadman, and Jaffe - local
John Lange and Rich Behrend - U.S. delegation to the OECD
Constantino LLuch, Andrew Dean, and John Martin - OECD
Secretariat
Kevin Lynch - get address from WP-1 steering committee list
M. Yoshikawa (Japan) - get name and address from WP-1
steering committee list
William Cline - Institute for International Economics (DC)
Dale Jorgensen - Harvard economics
David Wood - MIT (in rolidex, I think), send 5 copies & let
me insert a note
William Nordhaus - Yale economics
Andrew Solow, Jesse Ausubel, Lester Lave - get addresses
from WH conference materials
Peter Passell - New York Times
Robert Solow - MIT economics
cc: HG
sent to all
October 31, 1990
DOMESTIC POLICY COUNCIL
Working Group on Global Change
Task Force on Economic Costs
Bruce Bartlett
Deputy Assistant Secretary for
Economic Policy
Main Treasury, Room 3445
Washington, D.C. 20220
Tel: 566-2768 FAX: 786-8452
Fred Bernthal
Deputy Director
National Science Foundation
1800 G St., N.W., Room 520
Washington, D.C. 20550
Tel: 357-9427 FAX: 357-9725
Curtis Bohlen
1
Assistant Secretary
Oceans & International Environmental &
Scientific Affairs Bureau
Department of State, Room 7831
Washington, D.C. 20520
Tel: 647-1554 FAX: 647-0217
Robert W. Corell
Assistant Director for Geosciences
National Science Foundation
1800 G Street, N.W., Room 510
Washington, D.C. 20550
Tel: 357-9715 FAX: 357-9629
J. Clarence Davies
Assistant Administrator
Policy, Planning and Evaluation
Environmental Protection Agency
401 M Street, S.W.
Room 1013 West Tower
Washington, D.C. 20460
Tel: 382-4332 FAX: 252-0275 & 252-0780
Bruce Gardner
Assistant Secretary for Economics
Department of Agriculture
14th & Independence Ave., S.W., Room 227E
WAshington, D.C. 20250
Tel: 447-4164 FAX: 475-4915
2
Teresa Gorman
Associate Director for Environment,
Energy, and Natural Resources Policy
Office of Policy Development
Old EOB, Room 227
Washington, D.C. 20500
Tel: 456-6554 FAX: 456-7739
Robert E. Grady
Associate Director
Natural Resources Energy and Science
Office of Management and Budget
Old EOB, Room 260
Washington, D.C. 20500
Tel: 395-4844 FAX: 395-5730
C. Boyden Gray
Counsel to the President
White House, West Wing, 2d Floor
Washington, D.C. 20500
Tel: 456-2632 FAX: 456-6279
Nancy Maynard
Teresa Gormal
Assistant Director for Environmental Affairs
Office of Science and Technology Policy
Old EOB, Room 428-1/2
Washington, D.C. 20500
Tel: 395-6202 FAX: 395-3719
Barry McBee
Special Assistant to the Secretary
to the Cabinet
Office of Cabinet Affairs
Old EOB, Room 235
Tel: 456-2800 FAX: 456-2223
Mark Plant
Deputy Under Secretary, Economic Affairs
Department of Commerce
14th & Constitution Ave., N.W., Room 4850
Washington, D.C. 20230
Tel: 377-3523 FAX: 377-0432
John Schrote
Deputy Assistant Secretary
Policy, Management, and Budget
Department of the Interior, Room 6214
18th and C Streets, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20240
Tel: 208-4123 FAX: 208-4561
3
Linda Stuntz
Deputy Under Secretary for Policy,
Planning and Analysis
Department of Energy, Room 7B-098
1000 Independence Ave., S.W.
Washington, D.C. 20585
Tel: 586-5316 FAX: 586-5313
Copies of the global climate change report (with my card or
equivalent) should go to
John Knaus, Commerce
Mike Deland/Dave Struhs, CEQ
Dent
Roger Porter, WH
Allan Bromley/Nancy Maynard, OSTP
Steve Danzansky/Barry McBee, Cabinet Affairs
Qlin Wethington/Todd Buchholz, EPC
Richard Porter, DPC
Larry Lindsey, OPD
Richard Stewart, Justice
Tim Deal/Eric-Melby, NSC
Dick Schmalensee
Peter Passell
New York Times
229 West 43rd Street
New York, New York
10036
Christine Dawson
Member, Policy Planning Staff
Department ot State--S/P
Room 7328
BY COURIER
The Honorale Michael R. Beland
Chairman
Council on Environmental Quality
Old EOB, Room 156
David B. Struns
Statt Director
Council on Environmental Quality
122 Jackson Place, 2a Floor
BY COURIER
Richard W. Porter
Special Assistant to the President
and Executive Scretary
Cabinet Affairs--Domestic Policy
Old EOB, Room 231
Olin Wethington
Spec Asst to the President and
Executive Secretary
Cabinet Attairs--Economic Policy
Old EOB, Room 228
Dr. David Wood
Director, Center for Energy Policy
Research
MIT, Ctr for Energy Pol Research
One Amherst St (E40-437)
Cambridge, MA 02139
Dale Jorgensen
Harvard University
Economics Department
Cambridge, MA
02138
William Nordhaus
Yale Univesity
Economics Department
New Haven, CT
06520
William Cline
Institute for International
Economics
11 Dupont Circle, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20036
The Honorable Roger Porter
Assistant to the President for
Economic and Domestic Policy
White House-West Wing, 2d Floor
The Honorable Ricard B. Stewart
Assistant Attorney General
Department of Justice
Environment & Natural Resources
10th & Constitution Ave, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20530
MEMORANDUM
and
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
am
October 30, 1990
TO:
HOWARD GRUENSPECHT
FROM:
DICK SCHMALENSEE
all sent
White should
SUBJECT: Our GC Report
Francine has asked for DOE's distribution list and another dozen
Clinity
copies of the report. I now think we'll need many more. I'd
like copies to go at least to the following, none of whom I
suspect are on the DOE list:
Charge
Boskin/Taylor/Broadman/Jaffe
John Knauss, DOC
Buff Bohlen/Chris Dawson/Dave R[?], State
Mike Deland/Dave Strues [?], CEQ
The Governor (MJB to write buck slip)
All "New Haven" economists, broadly defined, including
Bill Cline
Bill Nordhaus
both Solows
Lester Lave
Jesse Ausubel
Dale Jorgensen
Dave Wood [send 5 extras for intra-MIT distribution]
Whoever's involved in the NAS study
OECD:
John Lange, USDEL
Constantio LLuch
Andrew Dean
John Martin
Kevin Lynch (Canadian Chair of WP-1)
Dick Stewart, Justice
Roger Porter, WH
NYTinos
Cabinet Affairs:
Richard Porter
Olin Wethingtor
Todd Buchholz
Steve Danzansky
A (very) few selected delegates from the WH conference (list
of names and addresses to be obtained from?). I'll want it
to go at least to Yoshikawa from Japan.
In addition, I'd like to have at least 20 on hand for random
requests. It thus looks like we'll need around (60 + your
additions to the above list). Let's send out what we now have
ASAP, get the DOE list quickly, add to our list, place our order,
type our labels, and get this thing moving.
Mr. Andrew Solow
Marine Policy Center
Woods Hole Oceanographic
Institution
gand
Woods Hole, MA 02543
the
Mr. Jesse Ausubel
Carnegie Commission on
Science, Tech. & Govt.
c/o Rockefeller University
1230 York Avenue, PO Box 20034
New York, NY 10021
Professor Lester Lave
GSIA
Carnegie Mellon University
Frew Street and Tech Street
Pittsburgh, PA 15213
Mr. Dan Reifsynder
State Department
Room 4327A
2201 C Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20520
Mr. James M. Broadus
Marine Policy Center
Woods Hole Oceanographic
Institution
Woods Hole, MA 02543
Mr. John Lange
U.S. Mission of the OECD
19 rue de Franqueville
75016 Paris
FRANCE
Mr. Richard Berans
U.S. Mission of the OECD
19 rue de Franqueville
75016 Paris
FRANCE
The Honorable Robert Reinstein
Deputy Assistant Secretary
OES/E
Department of State
Room 7825
Washington, D.C. 20520
Mr. Robert Solow
Massachusetts Institute of
Technology
Department of Economics
E52-383B
Cambridge, MA 02139
Mr. John A. Knauss
Under Secretary for OA
Department of Commerce
Room 5128
14th & Constitution Ave., NW
Washington, DC 20230
The Honorable Curtis Bohlen
Assistant Secretary for OES
Department of State
Room 7831
2100 C Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20520
Mr. Constantio Lluch
U.S. Mission of the OECD
19 rue de Franqueville
75016 Paris
FRANCE
APR :6 1990
BRADLEY, Rick/WILLIAMS, Ted
Janet
Department of Energy
with
Room 4G036
1000 Independence Ave., SW
Washington, D.C. 20585
(Mail Stop EH22)
(202) 586-2061
MONTGOMERY, Dr. David
Congressional Budget Office
Room H2-495
2nd and D St., S.W.
Washington, D.C. 20515
(202) 226-2946
MORGENSTERN, Richard
EPA
Office of Policy Analysis
PM 221
401 M Street, SW
Washington, D.C. 20460
(202) 382-4034
WAGGONER, Paul E.
Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station
P.O. Box 1106
New Haven, CT 06504
EDMONDS, Jae
Battelle
(Pacific Northwest Laboratories)
901 D Street, N.W.
Suite 900
Washington, D.C. 20024
(202) 646-5243
REILLY, John
Deputy Director
U.S. Department of Agriculture
Room 524
1301 NY Ave., N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20005-4788
(202) 786-1448
CRISTOFARO, Alex
EPA
Atmospheric and Economics Studies Branch
PM 221
401 M Street, S.W.
Washington, D.C. 20460
(202) 382-5490
2
KOSOBUD, Ruchard F.
University of Illinois at Chicago
Economics Department
P.O. Box 60680
Chicago, Illinois 60680
LEE, Tom
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Economics Department
Cambridge, Mass. 02139
BROADUS, James M
Marine Policy Center
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute
Woods Hole, MA 02543
(508) 548-1400 X2774
YOHE, Gary W.
Professor of Economics
Wesleyan University
Department of Economics
Middletown, CT 06457
(203) 347-9411, Ext. 2330
u
AUSABEL, Jesse
Fellow and Director of Studies
Carnegie Commission on Science, Technology,
and Government
c/o Rockefeller University
1230 York Avenue
P.O. Box 20034
New York, NY 10021
(212) 570-7917 #212-864-3536
COOPER, Richard
FAX AX212-770-7519 212 -770 7519
Harvard University
Economics Department
Cambridge, Mass. 02138
SCHELLING, Tom
Harvard University
Economics Department
Cambridge, Mass. 02138
(617) 495-1185
JORGENSEN, Dale
Harvard University
Economics Department
Cambridge, Mass. 02138
3
LAVE, Professor Lester
GSIA
Pittsburgh, Carnegie Mellon PA University 15213 Frew St. + Tech St.
(412) 268-8837
FAX 412-268-6837
PORTNEY, Dr. Paul
Resources for the Future
1616 P St., N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20036
(202) 328-5093
DARMSTADTER, Joel
Resources for the Future
1616 P St., N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20036
(202) 328-5050
NORDHAUS, William
Yale University
Economics Department
New Haven, CT 06520
(203) 432-3587
WOOD, Dave
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Economics Department
Cambridge, Mass. 02139
HOGAN, Professor William
Kennedy School
Harvard University
Cambridge, MA 02138
HAHN, Robert W.
American Enterprise Institute
1150 17th Street, N.W.
Suite 713
Washington, D.C. 20036
(202) 862-5909
CLINE, William
Institute for International Economics
11 Dupont Circle, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20036
(202) 328-9000
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
whin
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
2
WASHINGTON
November 1, 1990
MEMBER OF THE COUNCIL Glube
MEMORANDUM FOR MEMBERS OF THE TASK FORCE ON ECONOMIC COSTS,
and
DPC WORKING GROUP ON GLOBAL CHANGE
FROM:
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE A
Cherry
SUBJECT:
Our Report
Enclosed, at long last, is the final fruit of our efforts. I
have thanked the Department of Energy for their excellent
production job, and I want to thank you for your critical
substantive contributions to this project. By working together,
I believe we have written a better, more complete, and more
balanced report than any single agency could have. I hope you
and others find the final product useful.
October 31, 1990
DOMESTIC POLICY COUNCIL
Working Group on Global Change
Task Force on Economic Costs
Bruce Bartlett
Deputy Assistant Secretary for
Economic Policy
Main Treasury, Room 3445
Washington, D.C. 20220
Tel: 566-2768 FAX: 786-8452
Fred Bernthal
Deputy Director
National Science Foundation
1800 G St., N.W., Room 520
Washington, D.C. 20550
Tel: 357-9427 FAX: 357-9725
Curtis Bohlen
-
Assistant Secretary
Oceans & International Environmental &
Scientific Affairs Bureau
Department of State, Room 7831
Washington, D.C. 20520
Tel: 647-1554 FAX: 647-0217
Robert W. Corell
Assistant Director for Geosciences
National Science Foundation
1800 G Street, N.W., Room 510
Washington, D.C. 20550
Tel: 357-9715 FAX: 357-9629
J. Clarence Davies
Assistant Administrator
Policy, Planning and Evaluation
Environmental Protection Agency
401 M Street, S.W.
Room 1013 West Tower
Washington, D.C. 20460
Tel: 382-4332 FAX: 252-0275 & 252-0780
Bruce Gardner
Assistant Secretary for Economics
Department of Agriculture
14th & Independence Ave., S.W., Room 227E
WAshington, D.C. 20250
Tel: 447-4164 FAX: 475-4915
2
Teresa Gorman
Associate Director for Environment,
Energy, and Natural Resources Policy
Office of Policy Development
Old EOB, Room 227
Washington, D.C. 20500
Tel: 456-6554 FAX: 456-7739
Robert E. Grady
Associate Director
Natural Resources Energy and Science
Office of Management and Budget
Old EOB, Room 260
Washington, D.C. 20500
Tel: 395-4844 FAX: 395-5730
C. Boyden Gray
Counsel to the President
White House, West Wing, 2d Floor
Washington, D.C. 20500
Tel: 456-2632 FAX: 456-6279
Nancy Maynard
Teresa Gorman
Assistant Director for Environmental Affairs
Office of Science and Technology Policy
Old EOB, Room 428-1/2
Washington, D.C. 20500
Tel: 395-6202 FAX: 395-3719
Barry McBee
Special Assistant to the Secretary
to the Cabinet
Office of Cabinet Affairs
Old EOB, Room 235
Tel: 456-2800 FAX: 456-2223
Mark Plant
Deputy Under Secretary, Economic Affairs
Department of Commerce
14th & Constitution Ave., N.W., Room 4850
Washington, D.C. 20230
Tel: 377-3523 FAX: 377-0432
John Schrote
Deputy Assistant Secretary
Policy, Management, and Budget
Department of the Interior, Room 6214
18th and C Streets, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20240
Tel: 208-4123 FAX: 208-4561
3
Linda Stuntz
Deputy Under Secretary for Policy,
Planning and Analysis
Department of Energy, Room 7B-098
1000 Independence Ave., S.W.
Washington, D.C. 20585
Tel: 586-5316 FAX: 586-5313
10/2/90
Ms.
REVIEW DRAFT
Do not quote,
cite or
distribute
Task Force on Comprehensive and Incentives Approaches to Climate
Interim Report:
dry
Research and Analysis to Support the
Comprehensive and Incentives Approaches
October 2, 1990
Introduction
This Administration has developed new approaches to the
design of potential climate change policy, the "comprehensive"
and "economic incentives"¹ approaches. The United States first
clearly presented these approaches to the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) by letter in December 1989. They were
presented more fully through an "Informal Seminar" for the IPCC
Response Strategies Working Group (RSWG) officers in February
1990, accompanied by a booklet of Discussion Papers that have
since been widely distributed. The new approaches have been
reflected in U.S. positions in the IPCC and now in the IPCC
report itself, and in several speeches, including the President's
April 18 closing remarks to the White House Conference on Science
and Economics Research relating to Global Change, and his July 11
news conference following the Houston Economic Summit meeting.
The discussion to date has largely been of a conceptual
nature. Work must now be done on the practical workings of these
approaches, and to the research and analysis that would be needed
to assess their utility and to support their implementation.
This Task Force was organized in May 1990 to specify, encourage,
and coordinate this work. The Task Force is an interagency
effort chaired by DOJ and involving representatives of numerous
agencies, including CEA, CEES, CEQ, DOC/NOAA, DOE, DOI, DOJ, EPA,
NASA, NSF, OPD, OSTP, State, USDA, USTR, Treasury, and WH
Counsel. This "Interim Report" is provided to identify the
research and analysis needed, the current Administration efforts
¹The "economic incentives" approach was originally focused
on emissions trading, but has since been broadened to encompass
other market-based economic instruments, including emissions taxes.
* REVIEW DRAFT page 2 *
in that direction, and the further work required. Work is needed
in several scientific, economic and institutional research areas
that bear on or underlie these approaches, including efforts to
quantify sources and sinks of multiple greenhouse gases and fill
gaps in information on those sources and sinks, to quantify the
relative environmental impacts of these gases, to compare the
cost-effectiveness of these approaches and their alternatives,
and to develop institutional arrangements that could translate
these approaches from concept to practicality. In light of the
plethora of upcoming discussions, workshops, conferences,
international meetings, ministerial conferences and full
negotiations -- including the first session of negotiations on a
framework convention on climate change, to be hosted by the
United States in February 1991 -- prompt attention to these
topics is needed to prepare U.S. representatives for effective
participation and to assess choices the U.S. may need to make in
responding to others' proposals or putting forward its own.
Policy context
These approaches address the "how to" question -- how
to design any policy that might be adopted to respond to
potential climate change. Their principal aim is to improve the
framework of policy analysis and the cost-effectiveness of any
proposed policy choice. They do not address the larger cost-
benefit question of "how much" policy action should be taken --
what level of social investment, if any, is warranted by risks of
potential climate change. The work of this task force does not
imply that a choice has been made to implement some policy
action.
Furthermore, the "comprehensive" and "economic
incentives" concepts are "approaches" or heuristics that offer
insight into any discussion of response strategies for potential
climate change. The utility of these approaches is not limited
to the design of emissions limitation policies. Whether the
strategy is pursuing scientific research, promoting new
technology, enumerating the measures justified on other grounds
that also have potential climate benefits, 2 or designing actual
2 The major uncertainties surrounding potential climate
change, potential response strategies, and the costs and benefits
of both, have suggested a strategy of pursuing those policies
which are justified on other (non-climate) grounds yet which also
help to address potential climate change. More precisely, these
are climate-relevant policies pursued in the face of
uncertainties about predicted climate change which are so great
that the present expected loss due to climate change (and thus
the expected climate-related benefits of the policy) cannot
(continued
)
* REVIEW DRAFT page 3 *
emissions limitations policies (whether domestic or
international), these approaches suggest the desirable breadth,
emphasis and direction of the strategy. The "comprehensive" and
"economic incentives" approaches to potential climate change
policy were originally developed in response to the piecemeal
(C02-focused), command-and-control regulatory approach then
dominating the discussion in the IPCC, but the approaches apply
to the full array of policy types and options. And they apply to
domestic as well as international discussions.
For example, a nation following the strategy of
enumerating climate-relavent measures justified on other grounds
could use the comprehensive approach to calculate the aggregate
impact on net greenhouse gas emissions made by its various
measures. A framework convention on climate change could take a
comprehensive approach to the cooperative scientific and economic
research to which the parties commit, including the development
of international monitoring networks, as well as to any national
emissions reporting, or to credit to be given under any future
obligation for nations' current voluntary emissions-limiting
activities. An economic incentives approach could be applied to
adaptation measures desirable in long-range investments, such as
coastal construction or water use planning.
Summary of the Approaches
The two approaches are compatible, but need not be
employed together. Both approaches offer the possibility of
designing environmental policies that achieve goals at lower cost
and that highten the possibility for diverse, innovative,
flexible, and cost-effective responses.
Comprehensive approach. The "comprehensive" approach
seeks to address all the important contributors to potential
climate change, in contrast to a piecemeal focus on CO2 from the
energy sector. It therefore addresses all radiatively active
trace gases (RATGs), primarily consisting of the greenhouse gases
(GHGs), and their sources and sinks. GHGs include carbon dioxide
(C02), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N20), halocarbons such as
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and related substances (HCFCs, HFCs),
2 ( continued)
confidently be said to exceed a de minimis level. Examples
include emissions-limiting or adaptive steps taken for non-
climate reasons, such as phasing out CFCs, afforestation,
improving energy efficiency, and developing more drought-
resistant strains of crops. Other examples could include
reducing landfill emissions of NMHCs and CH4, reducing auto
emissions of CO and NOx, and encouraging coastal development to
account for current subsidence trends.
* REVIEW DRAFT page 4 *
and tropospheric ozone (03), whose precursors include oxides of
nitrogen (NOX), non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) (also referred
to as "volatile organic compounds," VOCs), and carbon monoxide
(CO) 3 Different RATGs arise from different sources and are
removed from the atmosphere by different sinks, yielding a "net
emissions" budget. Different RATGs have different impacts on the
environment; for example, each gas has a different ability to
trap certain radiated energy ("radiative forcing") or to reflect
it. In order to relate the comparative environmental impacts of
the various RATGs, the comprehensive approach employs a parameter
or "index" that calculates the relative contribution of
increments of each gas to physical effects, such as radiative
forcing, used as proxies for global externalities. The
comprehensive approach thereby avoids ignoring the important
gases that would be omitted from a CO2-only approach, and avoids
ignoring important sources and sinks that would be omitted from
an energy-only approach.
As a means of developing an agenda for science and
economics research, such as research on the likelihood or impacts
of potential climate change, the comprehensive approach suggests
the scope of the research agenda: the range of relevant inquiry,
the gases and sectors relevant as inputs to economic models of
RATG emissions, and the relative environmental externalities
(both negative and positive) related to emissions of each gas.
As an approach to technology development, the
comprehensive approach assists in identifying and comparing the
relative importance of technologies and practices affecting
potential climate outcomes.
As a means of enumerating climate-relevant measures
justified on other grounds, the comprehensive approach provides a
metric for identifying and assessing the policy actions that are
relavent in the climate context. It could form the basis for
calculating the aggregate impact of various such measures on a
nation's net RATG emissions.
As an approach to emissions limitation rules or
obligations, the comprehensive approach provides an
environmentally coherent and least-cost design for limitations
policy. A piecemeal approach, focused on one gas (e.g. CO2) or
one sector (e.g. energy), would omit salient RATGs, sources and
³other RATGs affect the radiative balance of the atmosphere,
but unlike GHGs, their main influence is not through absorption
of energy reradiated from the Earth's surface. Aerosol
particulates such as sulfur dioxide (S02), which generally
reflect insolation and thus may exert a net cooling influence,
are RATGs but not GHGs. A fully comprehensive approach would
encompass all such RATGs.
* REVIEW DRAFT page 5 *
sinks. By aiming narrowly, it could very well induce unintended
shifts of economic activities to unregulated modes that offset or
even increase emissions of RATGs, much as focusing on air
emissions alone can shift pollutants to toxic solid sludge
discharges. For example, focusing on CO2 alone could induce
fuel-switching from high-CO2 coal to lower-C02 natural gas,
meanwhile leading to increased emissions of CH4 from natural gas
transmission leaks. The comprehensive approach cures these
defects of a piecemeal approach. It also allows the flexibility
to choose the least-cost mix of policy options yielding the
desired overall RATG limitation. And, by addressing "net
emissions,' it encourages sink enhancement such as through
afforestation or safeguards against pollution of oceanic
phytoplankton. The comprehensive approach can be applied to a
variety of emissions limitation measures, 4 including emissions
taxes and emissions trading, and including both domestic and
international measures. If applied internationally, it has the
additional benefit of affording each nation the flexibility and
discretion to decide the mix of domestic policies regarding the
array of gases, sources and sinks that that nation determines
would best accomplish policy goals in light of its unique social,
economic, cultural and institutional circumstances.
Economic incentives approach. The "economic
incentives" approach similarly applies to a variety of policy
options. In the emissions limitation area, it encompasses the
panoply of market-based economic instruments, including emissions
trading and emissions taxes, imposed to force internalization of
the external environmental costs accompanying emissions. It
includes the use of incentives to promote innovation in
technologies and practices, and addresses adaptation as well as
emissions limitation. These incentives could be applied
domestically or internationally.
As one example, application of emissions trading to
emissions limitation obligations would allow those emitting a
substance to achieve compliance with limits on such emissions by
voluntary agreements to reallocate emissions among individual
emitters so long as the aggregate output did not exceed their
overall limit. Thus, reductions would be obtained most at those
places where reductions cost least. This could be accomplished
by authorizing informal reallocations among emitters, or by
formally issuing "allowances" and then authorizing a market in
⁴In light of the relative weighting of the various RATGs
according to their environmental externalities and the
flexibility afforded to choose a least-cost mix of measures, it
is possible that the comprehensive approach could achieve an
aggregate net RATG emissions limit by restricting emissions of
some gases while allowing emissions of other gas (es) to rise.
* REVIEW DRAFT page 6 *
the allowances. Experience with emissions trading in the U.S.
indicates that it can achieve environmental quality goals at
substantially lower cost, and therefore could be of use to
nations domestically as they implement any limits on greenhouse
gases. Several U.S. applications of emissions trading have been
highly successful, such as the phasedown of lead in gasoline;
some others have been instructive of the limits of emissions
trading, especially when it is applied in the context of other
regulatory restrictions on emitters. Allowing emissions trading
among nations -- probably initially as informal reallocations
accomplished through bilateral national accords -- could
similarly be advantageous in the context of any international
efforts to develop new technologies or limit emissions.
Emissions taxes would in theory also produce least-
cost results. In general, while emissions trading provides more
certainty about the quantity of emissions limitation achieved,
emissions taxes provide more certainty about the cost imposed on
emitters. Domestic use of emissions taxes could be apt where
certainty as to cost is more important, or where revenue raising
is an important goal. Imposition of international emissions
taxes could raise additional institutional, political and
sovereignty concerns -- such as whether nations would cede their
sovereignty to an international tax authority, how the tax would
be set, how it would be made equivalent across economies, and how
the potentially enormous revenues raised would be allotted and
expended -- that would probably not attend informal bilateral
international emissions trading or domestic taxes.
As another example, market mechanisms could be used to
encourage efficient adaptation practices. Long-range
investments, such as coastal construction or water use planning,
might, because of market failures or other institutional
failures, be undertaken without giving appropriate weight to any
climate change risks (e.g. rising sea levels or shifting
precipitation). Such failures might be addressed by
informational or incentive-based policies, such as by requiring
coastal construction to purchase subsidence insurance, or by
fostering a market in water resources that provides incentives
for efficient use and long-range risk management.
* REVIEW DRAFT page 7 *
Research and Analyses
The remainder of this Interim Report describes the
research and analysis tasks needed to develop and support the
comprehensive and incentives approaches. Our interagency task
force has endeavored to identify all of the current agency
activities related to each task, although we expect to learn of
additional activities as this report is shortly completed.
A companion report being prepared jointly by the CEES'
two working groups, Global Change and Mitigation & Adaptation
Research Strategies, titled "Research in Support of a
Comprehensive Approach to Trace Gas Emissions" (draft 10
September 1990), provides substantial additional detail on the
ongoing scientific research relavent to these approaches and the
research needed in the future.
Priorities and Timelines
For each task described below, our interagency task
force has suggested a priority value and a timeline on which work
could and should be completed to be most useful. The suggested
relative priority is identified for each task as "high," or
"medium," with the understanding that this list is itself a
capsule summary of the highest priority items and does not
mention numerous tasks judged to be somewhat relevant but not
warranting inclusion here.
A time horizon of 3 months, 18 months, or 5 years is
typically suggested for each task. 5 The timeline developed is a
combination of the practical pace of research, which suggested a
breakdown of tasks into very short-term (3 months), near-term (18
months), or longer-term (5 years) horizons for each task; and the
pace of international discussions, which suggested milestones at
January 1991, the eve of the first negotiating session on a
framework convention (3 to 4 months), June 1992, the target
signing date for the convention (roughly 20 months), or 1995, the
tentative time for the next full IPCC report (5 years).
The priorities and timelines suggested for each task
are suggestions, and we anticipate further discussion and
revision on these points.
⁵For certain tasks the timeline is different due to
particular scheduling dates; for example, the Second World
Climate Conference will be held at the end of this month.
* REVIEW DRAFT page 8 *
Research and Analysis Underlying the Comprehensive Approach
I. Measuring and Monitoring Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas (GHG)
concentrations
Any environmental impacts resulting from GHGs would be
associated with changing actual concentrations in the atmosphere,
not emissions per se. The comprehensive approach underscores the
necessity of gathering data on atmospheric concentrations of all
relevant GHGs. Over the last decade much work along these lines
has already been undertaken or accelerated, including (i) direct
measurement through ground station, aerial, and satellite
observation of atmospheric (tropospheric and stratospheric)
concentrations of several trace gases (chiefly CO2, CH4, N20, 03,
and CFCs), and (ii) sample records of past climate change found
in ice cores, tree rings, and other sites. Measuring and
monitoring past, current and future concentrations, temporal and
spatial (e.g. vertical) distributions, chemistry, removal, and
other dynamics of GHGs will remain an essential function under a
comprehensive approach.
-- Current Administration efforts:
- Under the U.S. Global Change Research Program,
several CEES agencies are conducting relevant research.
For example, DOE, NASA, NOAA and NSF are conducting or
will soon conduct direct measurement of atmospheric
concentrations and distributions of CO2, CH4, N20,
tropospheric 03, CFCs, CO, NOx and NMHCs. NASA, NSF
and DOI are studying sample records of CO2 and CH4 in
ice cores and tree rings. NASA and NOAA conduct direct
observations of stratospheric 03 and related
substances. EPA monitors ambient concentrations of
NOx, 03, NMHCs, S02, and CO. Internationally, the
United States participates in the work of the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO), the World Climate
Program (WCP), the International Geosphere-Biosphere
Program (IGBP), and many other monitoring efforts.
-- Future work:
- Ensure coverage of all relevant RATGs. Priority:
high. Timeline: continuous.
- Advance the comprehensive approach in any framework
convention on climate change. The science research
section of the convention must address all the relevant
RATGs. It should build networks of cooperative
monitoring among nations. Priority: high. Timeline: 3
months to 18 months.
* REVIEW DRAFT page 9 *
- Advance the comprehensive approach in the Second
World Climate Conference. Priority: high. Timeline: 1
month and thereafter.
- Advance the comprehensive approach in the World
Climate Program. Priority: high. Timeline: 1 month
and thereafter.
- Ensure coverage of relevant temporal and spatial
distributions.
- Advance understanding of chemical interactions among
trace gases.
- Advance understanding of quantitative link between
trace gases and radiative forcing.
II. Impacts of RATGs: Comparative Indices
Changing concentrations of RATGs in the atmosphere are of
interest because those gases may yield environmental impacts on
societies and ecosystems. Different substances in the atmosphere
have different environmental impacts; it goes almost without
saying that the environmental impacts of atmospheric oxygen,
water vapor, and CO2 are quite varied, and are believed to be
fundamental to the present habitability of the planet.
Incremental changes in concentrations of trace gases such as GHGs
will similarly have various impacts depending on the particular
gas at issue.
(A) Radiative forcing index
In the climate change context, the principal impact of RATGs
under study has been radiative forcing. Radiative forcing is not
the ultimate environmental impact of actual concern to societies
and ecosystems; it is rather an intermediate physical effect that
serves as a useful proxy or metric for assessing the impacts of
different RATGs on the potential for warming-induced climate
change, including atmospheric temperature change, changing
precipitation, changing soil moisture, sea level rise, and
temporal and regional variations, all of which in turn could
affect biological and other systems. Molecules of different
RATGs have different radiative forcing properties, and estimates
of the relative radiative forcing of incremental amounts of GHGs
can provide a common scale along which to compare the gases. A
comparative parameter of relative radiative forcing, sometimes
called a "global warming potential" (GWP) index or an index of
"CO2 equivalence, " has been developed by several scientists. The
index incorporates the instantaneous radiative forcing of each
type of molecule, its dissipation function and hence its typical
residence time in the atmosphere, and the discount rate applied
* REVIEW DRAFT page 10 *
or the time horizon over which the forcing function is
integrated.
-- Current Administration efforts:
- Considerable work has been done on the relative
radiative forcing of many RATGs. Estimates of
instantaneous radiative forcing, derived from
laboratory tests of molecular properties, are well
established, as are residence times for several RATGs.
Work in this area has been done by NASA, NOAA,
NSF, EPA, and DOE, and has been reviewed and reported
by IPCC WG I.
-- Overview of needed work:
Priority: In general, this task is extremely urgent,
as it constitutes the technical focal point of the
comprehensive approach.
Timeline: Current work on relative radiative forcing
is very active; the science is maturing; and robust,
reliable, consensus estimates will likely be ready in
the near term (6 to 18 months), though with continued
uncertainties on specific aspects.
-- Future work:
- Convene international workshop (s) to discuss current
work and needed improvements, to build understanding
among diverse and representative experts, and to
encourage multidisciplinary efforts. EPA, NOAA and
NASA are jointly planning to host such a conference in
November 1990. Priority: high. Timeline: 3 months.
- Harmonize various quantitative approaches and extend
international understanding of indices. Priority:
high. Timeline: 3 to 18 months.
- Improve accuracy of dissipation functions and hence
of estimated residence times of RATGs. Scientific
uncertainties in the current estimates remain
surrounding the residence time of CO2, due to
complications in the carbon cycle and uncertainties in
CO2 sink removal processes. Atmospheric chemical
reactions involving other gases, such as CH4 and
precursors to tropospheric 03, complicate estimates of
their residence times. Recent work at NOAA is
substantially improving estimates of the dissipation
rate and residence time of CH4. As work is ongoing,
uncertainties in best estimates can be expressed and
revised. Priority: high. Timeline: 3 months to 5
years, varying by gas.
- Incorporate indirect effects attributable to various
gases' atmospheric reactions. Certain trace gases
react to form other radiatively important trace gases,
* REVIEW DRAFT page 11 *
or react with substances that would otherwise affect
RATG abundances. Much of this work has already been
conducted, hence: Priority: medium. Timeline: 18
months to 5 years, depending on gas.
- Take account of "saturation" effects. Radiative
forcing by each RATG occurs within a different segment
of the electromagnetic spectrum; as that segment or
"band" becomes occluded, additional increments of the
gas have diminishing marginal radiative forcing
impacts. Radiative forcing estimates thus depend on,
and need to be expressed in terms of, projected
concentrations of relevant RATGs. Much of this
information is already available and needs to be
incorporated into expressed estimates. Priority:
medium to high, depending on significiance of the
effect for each gas. Timeline: 18 months.
- Take account of the implications that vertical and
other distribution of RATGs in the atmosphere may have
for calculated index values. This factor is quite
important for 03 and its determinants -- CH4, CO, NOx,
NMHCs. Priority: high for relavent gases. Timeline:
18 months.
- Improve use of discount rates/time horizons. IPCC
WGI expresses GWPs in three selected time horizons;
analysis is needed of which of these three horizons, or
which other horizon, is appropriate for policymaking.
More broadly, better understanding is needed of the
scientific and economic basis for choosing different
discount rates. Priority: high. Timeline: 3 to 18
months.
- The indices calulated to date have often focused on
GHGs and omitted other RATGs. Assess implications of
including other relevant substances, such as
anthropogenic aerosol particulates (e.g. S02), in the
index. Priority: medium. Timeline: 3 to 18 months.
- Develop institutional mechanisms for adopting a
consensus index and adjusting it to new research
results. Because uncertainties remain in certain
aspects of the index, index values may change as new
scientific information is discovered. If an
internationally agreed index is used as a tool for
design of national policy portfolios to limit net
index-weighted RATG emissions, changes in the index
values could mean changes in the costs to each nation
of its policy package. Mechanisms should be developed
for giving advance indication of index uncertainties
and likely changes in the index, incorporating new
scientific information, and smoothing transitions to
new index values. Such mechanisms could include
objective science panels and periodic reassessments.
Priority: high. Timeline: 3 to 18 months.
* REVIEW DRAFT page 12 *
(B) Global change index
As indicated above, radiative forcing is only an
intermediate physical effect of trace gases, and is really a
proxy used as a common metric to compare diverse RATGs. 6 But
RATGs have multiple attributes; they yield other, non-warming
environmental impacts of global and local significance which may
be more important (in magnitude, timing, or other features) than
their contributions to radiative forcing. For example, CO, NOx,
urban 03, and SO2 are reactive and/or toxic; CFCs and related
substances deplete the stratospheric ozone layer; higher CO2
concentrations increase plant photosynthesis and increase plants'
water use efficiency. Optimal policy choices would entail
developing a comparative index that incorporates the full
externalities (social and ecological costs) imposed by increments
of each RATG. Without such a "complete" index, a simple
radiative forcing index could provide signals or incentives that
yield desirable changes in aggregate radiative forcing but
undesirable changes in other impacts; in other words, significant
externalities will remain uninternalized. 7
At the same time, a fully "complete" index poses quite
difficult analytic and technical problems. Data are not adequate
on important aspects of the magnitude and variations of the
diverese impacts; for example, data are lacking on the effects of
ozone depletion on UV-B irradiance, and on the effects of changes
in UV-B irradiance on biota. Comparing the dissimilar warming
and non-warming impacts on a common scale, something like
comparing apples and oranges, is a challenge requiring serious
analytic efforts.
A somewhat more realistically achievable index would
incorporate only the key "global change" attributes of each RATG,
namely their radiative forcing and the other salient non-warming
global impacts of GHGs, such as the direct effects of CO2 on
vegetation and the ozone depletion impacts associated with CFCs
and other halocarbons. Essentially local attributes of the
⁶Measurement of the ultimate impacts of warming itself on
biological and other systems, though critical for assessing the
costs and benefits of climate change, are not incorporated into
the radiative forcing index because such impacts stem from
warming generically, and do not vary depending on the type of gas
enhancing the warming.
⁷It is worth noting that, in contrast to the warming-
specific term GWP, the phrase "CO2 equivalence, though
unfortunate for its focus of attention on CO2, does offer the
opportunity to introduce non-warming effects into the generic
concept of "equivalence."
* REVIEW DRAFT page 13 *
gases, such as their toxicity, would be left to local policy
strategies. This "global change" index would capture the main
global externalities associated with the gases, providing
significantly more optimal policy signals than an index limited
to radiative forcing. It would nonetheless require effort and
time to construct.
The desirability of a "global change" index faces a dilemma:
pushing too hard for a more complete index could undercut the
legitimacy of the radiative forcing index, leading to the
latter's disparagement or rejection by other nations, or perhaps
to the view that one must wait years for a more complete index.
This in turn could encourage the reinvigoration of gas-by-gas
policy proposals. A two-pronged effort is therefore needed, to
build, improve and promote the radiative forcing index, and at
the same time to work on a global change index without
undercutting the radiative forcing index.
-- Current Administration efforts:
- Conceptual thinking about design of a global change
index. (DOJ, USDA)
- Efforts to quantify direct environmental impacts of
CO2 enrichment, chiefly its impacts on agricultural and
forestry output, and on water resources. (DOE, USDA,
DOI, EPA, NSF). These efforts are high priority in any
event.
- Efforts to quantify environmental impacts of
stratospheric ozone depletion and resultant UV-B
irradiance due to halocarbon emissions, such as impacts
on agriculture, phytoplankton, and cancers. (USDA,
EPA). These efforts are high priority in any event.
-- Future work:
- Address technical and analytic issues in a global
change index. Whereas the common proxy or metric used
in current indices is radiative forcing, a global
change index would require a common metric among the
various warming and non-warming impacts. It would also
require application of discount rates because different
impacts may occur at different times; for example, CO2
enrichment will likely occur much sooner than any
observed warming due to CO2. (DOJ, USDA, DOI).
Priority: medium. Timeline: 18 months.
- Undertake preliminary design and rough quantitative
estimate of a global change index, in order to assess
the difference between the relative RATG values
obtained in a global change index versus a radiative
forcing index. This effort would also indicate whether
a global change index is sufficiently different to be
worth developing. Priority: medium. Timeline: 3 to 18
months.
* REVIEW DRAFT page 14 *
- Improve understanding of direct environmental impacts
of CO2 enrichment, including the impact of CO2 in
concert with changes in other environmental variables
such as temperature, moisture, and other pollutants.
(DOE, USDA, DOI, EPA, NSF). Priority: high. Timeline:
- Improve understanding of impacts of ozone depletion,
including measuring UV-B irradiance and assessing
impacts of UV-B radiation on biological systems.
(USDA, EPA). Priority: high. Timeline:
III. Measuring and Monitoring net GHG emissions
Assessment of current and future net emissions is critical
to the task of predicting the contribution of net emissions to
atmospheric concentrations and hence to forecasting potential
climate change, regardless of whether any emissions limitations
are ever adopted.
The comprehensive approach emphasizes attention to all
RATGs, sources and sinks. Baseline data on all of these is not
always currently available. In addition, much of the data that
are available derives from estimates using data on inputs (e.g.
fuel quantities) and knowledge of or assumptions about input-
output ratios associated with technologies or practices. Better
measurement, forecasting and actual monitoring of net RATG
emissions is suggested by, and needed to support, the
comprehensive approach.
The ability to better monitor future emissions could also be
useful in verifying the implementation of limitation actions and
in assuring others' compliance with their claims and with
international obligations. This is true of domestic limitations
rules as well as international obligations; if a domestic GHG
emissions limitation policy is to be effective and, in
particular, is to employ performance standards rather than
technology-based standards, it will require sound emissions
monitoring techniques.
(A) Measuring net GHG emissions
-- Current Administration efforts:
- Numerous agencies collect and analyze data on various
gases, sources, sinks, sectors, and industries, and
thereby measure emissions from a variety of sources
(e.g. energy utilities, mobile sources, land use,
agriculture) and uptake by a variety of sinks (e.g.
oceans, forests, soils, grasses).
- Efforts are underway to assemble "inventories" of net
* REVIEW DRAFT page 15 *
emissions of GHGs for many nations, 8 chiefly EPA's
analysis of CO2, CH4, CFCs, HCFCs, N20, CO, NOX, and
NMHCs for the US and other nations.
- Data are generally adequate on US and other
industrialized nations' emissions of GHGs from fossil
fuel combustion (generally measured by data on fuel
inputs and knowledge of typical combustion techniques),
and on world emissions of halocarbons (generally
measured by production, consumption and storage rates)
-- Future work:
- Ensure that measurement covers all relevant GHGs,
sources and sinks. Priority: high. Timeline:
continuous.
- Improve data on other nations. Data on developing
nations are particularly scant. The framework
convention could call for development of information on
all nations, including through a network of cooperative
international measuring. Priority: high. Timeline: 18
months to 5 years.
- Develop technologies for measuring net GHG emissions,
including direct observation and remote sensing.
Priority: medium. Timeline: 18 months to 5 years.
- Develop a data set of emissions/uptake factors for
current and potential technologies and practices,
covering all relevant gases, sources and sinks.
Priority: high. Timeline: 18 months.
- Develop practical proxies or surrogates, such as fuel
or fertilizer input data coupled with assumed output
rates (e.g. combustion or cultivation techniques), or
acreage or livestock data coupled with assumed output
rates, to generate emissions factors to assist in
measuring emissions. Ensure that measurement
uncertainties and assumptions, and use of
8 Efforts outside the government include: OECD project,
soliciting data from member states on all GHGs; WRI project (in
conjunction with UNEP/UNDP) on all nations' net emissions of CO2,
CH4, CFCs; Harvard Kennedy School survey of many nations'
emissions of CO2 and CFCs.
* REVIEW DRAFT page 16 *
proxies/surrogates, do not distort policy responses. 9
Priority: high. Timeline: 18 months.
- Improve understanding of the processes involved in
natural emissions and sink uptake, and how these
activities might be influenced by climate change.
Priority: high. Timeline: 3 months to 5 years.
- Ensure that data presentations are comprehensive,
e.g. avoid CO2-only or fossil fuels-only charts in
IPCC, NES, OTA, and other reports except as adjuncts to
complete GHG presentation. Priority: high. Timeline:
continuous.
- Ensure that data presentations include the scientific
uncertainties involved. Priority: medium. Timeline:
continuous.
(B) Forecasting future net emissions
-- Current Administration efforts:
- Use of economic models to generate scenarios of
future emissions. EPA, DOE, and NSF are conducting
such work, using a variety of economic models. U.S.
agency work was reviewed and reported in the IPCC
WGI/WGIII emissions scenarios.
-- Future work:
- Current economic models tend to focus on CO2,
separate sectors, and industrialized nations. Need to
make use of new and expanded models that overhaul and
elaborate current economic models to cover multiple
RATGs, multiple sectors, and other important
improvements. Ensure that these models include GHG
sinks and other aspects of the comprehensive approach.
DOE has a three-year phased project underway to
accomplish this; EPA is working on improving its
models. Priority: high. Timeline: 18 months to 5
years.
9 For example, measurement of CH4 emissions based on a proxy
such as total acreage of rice cultivation might imply that the
only option to reduce emissions is reduced rice cultivation,
whereas changed practices using existing or new rice strains
might accomplish the same at lower socioeconomic cost. In
general, the use of proxies should not be allowed to conceal
opportunities for changing the emissions factors or other
assumptions from which the proxies derive.
* REVIEW DRAFT page 17 *
(C) Monitoring net emissions in the future
This task is useful to test empirically the effects on RATG
net emissions of observed changes in economic activity, economic
structure, and technologies and practices. It is also useful to
evaluate accomplishment of nations' espoused policies and of any
limitation agreements reached in international accords.
-- Current Administration efforts:
- Efforts to improve monitoring of non-point emissions,
including CH4 emissions from rice cultivation (EPA) and
ruminant animal husbandry (EPA); and GHG emissions from
biomass burning (deforestation) (EPA, NASA, USDA).
- Efforts to improve monitoring of CH4 emissions from
energy systems such as natural gas transmission and
fossil fuels extraction (DOE, EPA).
-- Future work:
- Use proxies/surrogates, developed for measurement of
net emissions (section (A) above), to monitor emissions
through monitoring of inputs, technologies and
practices. Priority: high. Timeline: 18 months.
- Expand monitoring capacity and data to cover all
relevant gases, sources, and sinks: data are especially
needed on non-point sources of CH4 and N20, e.g.
agriculture, livestock; hydroxyl chemistry and
atmospheric chemical reactions yielding tropospheric
03; non-point sources and sinks of CO2, including
oceanic biota, terrestrial biota, long-term
sequestration, plant lifecycles, grasses, soils, and
trees, extent and effects of deforestation, and sink
behavior. Priority: high. Timeline: 18 months to 5
years.
- Expand monitoring capacity and data to cover all
nations. Current data generally cover industrialized
nations. Develop an international network of
cooperrative net emissions monitoring. Priority: high.
Timeline: 18 months to 5 years, depending on gas and
sources/sinks.
- Harmonize techniques and data among nations and
analysts. For example, resolve differences among
nations monitoring deforestation (Brazil is urging that
only its satellites produce reliable estimates of
Brazilian land use). Priority: high. Timeline: 18
months to 5 years.
- Develop monitoring technologies and capabilities, as
described under " (A) Measuring net GHG emissions"
(above). Priority: medium. Timeline: 18 months to 5
years.
- Identify potential international and national methods
for monitoring net GHG emissions; assess institutional,
* REVIEW DRAFT page 18 *
political, social, and economic constraints on such
monitoring, and means to overcome such constraints.
Priority: high. Timeline: 3 to 18 months.
- Assess options for monitoring arrangements, including
arrangements for monitoring and reporting and their
relation to sovereignty concerns, e.g. voluntary or
mandatory national reporting; "national technical
means" of observation of other nations' activities;
remote sensing; atmospheric observations; international
oversight bodies (e.g. UNEP investigators) ; permission
for on-site inspections; bilateral trade partner review
under emissions trading; incentives and institutional
designs to encourage development and application of
accurate monitoring & reporting, for example by
assuring credit for net GHG limitation actions (e.g.
climate-relavent actions justified on other grounds)
upon a showing by the emitter of successful monitoring
practices (see section VI below) ; verification and
enforcement procedures and their rules, reporting and
enforcement procedures, burdens of proof, forum
(international or bilateral, political or scientific
adjudicators, etc.). Examine role of nongovernmental
organizations and public. Priority: high. Timeline:
18 months.
IV. Evaluating current national policies and proposals
Whether or not international agreement is reached on
response strategies to potential climate change, nations are
already announcing their intention to restrict emissions of one
or more RATGs or to expand RATG sinks. The U.S. policy of
pursuing climate-relavent measures justified on other grounds has
been articulated in qualitative form; at some point the U.S. --
or others -- may choose to present quantifications of the net
RATG effects of these U.S. measures. The comprehensive approach
provides the basis for computing the aggregate impact of such
diverse measures. In addition, it may be valuable for the U.S.
to assess the policy claims and policy proposals being made by
other nations, using the comprehensive approach, and to examine
the policy opportunities that would face other nations under a
comprehensive approach.
(A) Extent and costs of net GHG limitations achieved by
U.S. policy options within a comprehensive framework.
As described in the Introduction, it is useful to
identify actions taken for other (non-climate) reasons but
which influence net RATG emissions. One may calculate the
percent limitations or reductions achieved by these policy
actions using the comprehensive approach, and also calculate
the marginal, average, and total cost per policy action.
* REVIEW DRAFT page 19 *
This could be a first step toward assessing the marginal and
total costs of RATG avoidance from different gas/source/sink
policy options and hence toward assessing the relative cost-
effectiveness of the comprehensive versus piecemeal
approaches.
-- Current Administration efforts:
- analysis of US policies in EPA Cost
Study/"Comprehensive Budget" analysis (covering U.S.
energy efficiency and clean energy initiatives, CFC
phaseout, afforestation, landfill rules, and other
policies) through 2000. Priority: high. Timeline: 3
months.
- DOE/NES analysis of US energy policies through 2030,
including NES options, afforestation, and CFCs.
Priority: high. Timeline: 3 months.
- DOC study of future emissions under different tax
options and under EC-wide strategy or global strategy.
Priority: high. Timeline: 3 months.
-- Future work:
- Improve basis for projecting emissions limitations
achieved by current policies
- Expand to cover influence of changes in agricultural
subsidies, other relevant policy measures
- Look beyond 2000.
(B) Analysis of net GHG limitations achieved by other
nations' policies
Analysis similar to that described for U.S. "no
regrets" measures above should be undertaken for the
policies announced and implemented by, proposed by, or
available to, foreign nations. Certain nations have
suggested unilateral limits on CO2 emissions (e.g. Sweden,
possibly Japan), on nuclear power (Sweden, GDR), on S02,
NOx, and NMHCs (U.S.) ; and others have announced willingness
to enact CO2 limits if others do too (e.g. U.K.,
Netherlands), and others have endorsed the Noordwijk
Declaration's suggestion of CO2 emissions stabilization by
industrialized countries by 2000.
-- Current work:
- Obtain information on each nation's policies.
-- Future work:
- Using a comprehensive approach, calculate the value
of current policies in place in nations abroad, as
* REVIEW DRAFT page 20 *
described above for U.S. actions. 10 Assess how other
nations would fare under a comprehensive approach.
Priority: high. Timeline: 3 months.
- Include consideration of foreign nations'
agricultural subsidies and other relevant policies
regarding non-point sources. Priority: high.
Timeline: 3 months.
- Expand to cover developing nations. Priority: high.
Timeline: 3 months.
- Using a comprehensive approach, calculate the
influence each foreign proposal would have on net RATG
emissions and GHG concentrations. Priority: high.
Timeline: 3 months.
- Include modeling of international energy markets and
effect of price responses to unilateral demand
reductions. Priority: high. Timeline: 3 to 18 months.
V.
Evaluating the comparative cost-effectiveness of piecemeal,
partial, and comprehensive approaches.
Advocacy of the comprehensive approach is based in part on
the intuitively strong hypothesis that the marginal costs of
control vary across gases, sources, sinks, and nations, so that
for any assumed limitation obligation, 11 each nation's least-cost
mix of limitation strategies would be different and all nations,
regardless of their current RATG inventories, would be better off
under a comprehensive approach than under an approach which
placed separate limitation obligations on each gas or sector. 12
¹⁰special attention may be due the range of CFC-substitutes
to be used by each nation. Japan, for example, is apparently
presenting figures that show larger reductions in radiative
forcing from phasing out unit amounts of CFCs than is the U.S.,
suggesting that Japan may be counting on selecting CFC-
substitutes with lower GWPs than those to be used in the U.S.
This also suggests that the Montreal Protocol, although
potentially helpful as a no regrets measure, may not by itself be
sufficient to address climate concerns associated with ozone-
depleting substances.
¹¹As stated in the Introduction, given an assumed objective,
the task is to assess the comparative costs of achieving it under
different policy designs. This task does not assess the overall
rationality or economic efficiency of the chosen objective.
12 The aggregate shares calculated in the inventories (in
Part III (B), above) do not indicate the costs of incremental
limitations for each nation. Simply because a nation currently
has a large share in methane, for example, does not mean that
(continued
)
* REVIEW DRAFT page 21 *
This task is needed to test that hypothesis and, if
confirmed, to demonstrate the value of the comprehensive
approach.
(A) Marginal costs: information and analyses needed to map
full comparative cost-effectiveness functions and
variations by gas, source, sink, sector, nation.
This task moves beyond analyses of specific existing
policy programs and evaluates the full marginal cost
functions facing policy makers and private actors.
-- Current Administration efforts:
- DOE/NES analysis for US energy sector policies and
afforestation
-- Future work:
- Expand to cover all relevant gases, sources, sinks,
sectors. Priority: high. Timeline: 3 months.
- Expand to cover other nations. Priority: high.
Timeline: 3 months.
- Assess full social costs, using general equilibrium
model rather than expenditures by the regulated
industry. 13 Make use of forthcoming models. Analyze
costs over time, relation to innovation. 14 Priority:
high. Timeline: 18 months.
- Include (qualitative) evaluation of non-economic
costs to response options, e.g. cultural or
institutional barriers to certain policies. Priority:
medium. Timeline: 18 months.
- Assess informational, administrative, and other
transactions costs of piecemeal, partial and
12 ( continued)
that nation would find methane reductions costlier than CO2
reductions, at the margin. Economic analysis is needed to test
the hypothesis of varying costs and to demonstrate the benefits
to every nation of being afforded the cross-gas, cross-sector,
and source-sink flexibility of the comprehensive approach.
13 The comparative impacts on macroeconomic and international
variables (e.g. trade, competitiveness, economic growth) would
require separate study.
14 Evaluation should also address the likely economic
impacts in the US and worldwide of potential future changes in
the understanding of the gas-comparison index, and means to
cushion adverse impacts (e.g. periodic public science reviews).
* REVIEW DRAFT page 22 *
comprehensive approaches. Priority: medium. Timeline:
18 months.
- Evaluate the benefits (effectiveness) of policies, in
terms of RATGs avoided. Priority: high. Timeline: 3
to 18 months.
(B) Use cost-effectiveness analyses to evaluate costs and
benefits to the US and other nations of possible
piecemeal, partial and comprehensive options that will
be suggested for international policy design
This task moves beyond the analysis of current policy
proposals suggested in section IV above to examine the
marginal costs of policy designs, and to consider both
proposed and hypothetical policy designs. It also focuses
on international accords rather than national actions. This
task is essential if U.S. policy makers and negotiators are
to be able to assess policy proposals that inevitably be
made as negotiations on a framework convention on climate
change unfold.
Potential policy designs to be compared include: CO2
only, all RATs, or all RATGs except those covered under the
Montreal Protocol; sources only, point sources only, all
sources and sinks, or sources and terrestrial sinks only;
all sectors, or certain sectors (e.g. energy, industry,
transport, agriculture, forestry).
Priority: high. Timeline: 3 to 18 months.
(C) Evaluate the environmental effectiveness of
comprehensive and piecemeal approaches: propensity and
impact of induced shifts in residuals
Thus far, for any given policy goal, a piecemeal (e.g.
CO2-only) approach and a comprehensive approach have been
assumed to yield identical results in terms of aggregated
GWP (or full environmental impacts). In other words,
whether a reduction in net index-weighted ("CO2-equivalent")
emissions were achieved in CO2 or in a combination of gases,
the overall calculated effect on the index value of concern
would be the same.
But such analysis fails to account for actual economic
and social responses to policy interventions. Advocacy of
the comprehensive approach is based in part on the
intuitively strong hypothesis that including all gases,
sources and sinks ensures better effectiveness in any effort
to limit contributions to potential radiative forcing (or
full impacts), because piecemeal rules applying to one gas,
source (or sector), or sink will engender shifts of
* REVIEW DRAFT page 23 *
socioeconomic activity from regulated to unregulated modes,
undercutting achievement of policy goals. Case studies will
be especially helpful to illustrate these issues.
-- Current Administration efforts:
- Understanding of prior piecemeal approaches in
environmental regulation and their resultant shifts of
residuals, including single-medium approaches, e.g. to
discharges into air, land, and water; and single-
pollutant approaches, e.g. to S02.
- DOE/NES study will address CO2 and CH4 emissions from
energy sector; it should consider potential GHG-related
environmental effects of fuel switching, new energy
sources, and sectoral shifts.
-- Future work:
- Develop "crisp retorts" to piecemeal approaches:
Conduct case studies of cross-gas shifts: e.g. fossil
fuel switching (coal to natural gas) induced by CO2-
only policies could have attendant impacts on C02-to-
CH4 emissions shifts due to CH4 leakage from natural
gas transport. 15 Expand cross-gas shift studies, e.g.
apply coal-to-gas C02-CH4 shift analysis to actual
global GHG output and in light of likely GHG
emissions/leaks from future coal and gas facilities.
Priority: high. Timeline: 3 months.
- Evaluate cross-source/sector shifts: e.g. under a
transport-only policy (such as a high CAFE statute),
possible shift from fossil fuel combustion on board
vehicles to electric cars powered by central utility
combustion, or to use of intensely cultivated biomass
fuels; e.g. under an energy-only or fossil fuel-only
policy, possible shift to biomass fuels whose
cultivation emits other GHGs. Priority: high.
Timeline: 3 months.
- Include consideration of international market
responses to unilateral policy choices. Assess cross-
boundary shifts, through price effects and industry
flight, of unilateral or OECD-only policies. Priority:
high. Timeline: 3 months.
(D) Evaluate the environmental benefits of a "net emissions"
approach
15 See, e.g., Rodhe, Science 8 June 1990. Using a 100-year
time horizon and a CO2-equivalent GWP for CH4 of 10, Rodhe
estimates that if a C02-reduction policy were accomplished by
fuel switching from coal to natural gas, a 3-6% CH4 leakage rate
from natural gas transport facilities would fully offset all the
CO2 reductions resulting from the fuel switch.
* REVIEW DRAFT page 24 *
A net emissions approach, encompassing both sources and
sinks, would encourage sink protection and expansion,
whereas a source-only approach would not. Sink policies
encouraged could include afforestation and protection of
marine phytoplankton from pollution. This task is to
evaluate the side benefits of likely sink policies, e.g.
reduced soil erosion, enhanced biodiversity, protected
phytoplankton, and better timber management.
VI. Bridging from piecemeal to comprehensive approaches
(A) Addressing the objection that the comprehensive approach
is technically difficult or infeasible
As discussed in the introduction, the comprehensive approach
can be applied to assist in design of various policies, including
research strategies, technology development strategies,
enumeration of steps justified on other grounds, and emissions
limitation strategies. For most of these options, the
comprehensive approach can be applied immediately, despite
potential uncertainties, as a general guide to intelligent
analysis of the scope and relative importance of policy choices.
For implementing emissions limitations, however, prompt
application of the comprehensive approach might be somewhat more
difficult. In principle, a comprehensive approach appears to be
the most appropriate way to design any emissions limitation
policy. But as indicated above, there are noteworthy gaps and
uncertainties in the information on emissions of certain gases
from certain sources and uptake by certain sinks. If emissions
limitations were to be imposed today, a fully comprehensive
approach would not be available. If emissions limitations are
not needed immediately, work on the comprehensive approach can
continue toward a time when limitations might be agreed. If
emissions limitations are to be agreed at some point before all
informational gaps are filled, a partially comprehensive approach
could be employed with a mechanism for moving to a fully
comprehensive approach as these gaps are filled. 16
The issue for policy makers is not whether the comprehensive
approach is "feasible," but whether at any point the social costs
of implementing an incompletely comprehensive approach -- in
terms of environmental effectiveness and economic efficiency, as
¹⁶γet it must be recognized that piecemeal approaches, once
adopted, generally attract vested interests who resist any
efforts to expand toward a comprehensive approach.
* REVIEW DRAFT page 25 *
described in section V above -- are outweighed by the social
costs of obtaining additional information (including costs of
delay). Such costs would also include transactions costs and
administrative costs. In other words, one must ask whether the
marginal value of additional information (leading to a more
comprehensive approach) exceeds the marginal cost of obtaining
additional information. Another way of examining the issue is to
ask at what point would one know enough to proceed
comprehensively; and to ask how (and at what cost) a
comprehensive approach could evolve from incremental steps.
Further, one would consider institutional means to incorporate
incentives into any partial strategy that encourage evolution
toward a comprehensive approach.
The scientific building blocks of the comprehensive approach
are described above in sections I-III. Any framework convention
should foster scientific research through a comprehensive
approach. In addition, consideration of the need to bridge from
a partial to a comprehensive approach would include:
-- Future work:
- Assess the time and expense needed to answer
scientific questions, develop proxy measurement
devices, and build monitoring capabilities to achieve a
workable comprehensive approach.
- Assess other constraints to employment of a fully
comprehensive approach, including institutional,
political, cultural and economic obstacles.
- Compare the costs of acquiring this needed
information to the socioeconomic and environmental
costs (and foregone benefits) of adopting a piecemeal
policy design for want of such information.
- Develop policy and institutional designs that offer
incentives for needed research. For example, an
emissions limitation obligation in an international
agreement could be framed in a piecemeal fashion but
offer the opportunity to emitters to achieve compliance
through limitation actions addressing other GHGs,
sources or sinks, so long as the emitter demonstrates
the accomplishment. This would give emitters
incentives to undertake the research needed to develop
new monitoring capabilities.
- Consider intermediate approaches such as incremental
or phased-in designs toward comprehensivity, and means
to bridge from them to a fully comprehensive approach.
Overview: Priority: high. Timeline: 3 to 18 months.
* REVIEW DRAFT page 26 *
(B) Integrating prior and concurrent law and policies into
a comprehensive approach.
Even if a fully comprehensive approach were available for
use in emissions limitations at any relevant point, it is
apparent that other treaties, laws and policies will already be
addressing discrete RATGs, sources, and sinks. Some means would
be needed to accommodate and integrate these diverse endeavors
into the comprehensive approach. Several options are available
for such integration. One option is to use a comprehensive
approach to net RATGs in any emissions limitation protocol while
varying the baseline of allowed credit according to prior treaty
obligations. Another option is to have the convention mandate
that any future protocol (if any) employ a comprehensive
approach. A related option is to incorporate in a framework
convention on climate the assurance to nations, in advance of any
hypothetical future protocol obligations (not yet agreed to),
that they would receive credit against any such obligations for
current or past (after a certain date) net emissions limitations
actions, whether taken pursuant to treaties or national policies;
the convention would further calculate the value of such actions
according to the comprehensive approach. This would assure
credit for measures justified on other grounds, avoid
disincentives to those actions, and give root to the
comprehensive approach, while not yet committing to emissions
limitations obligations.
-- Current Administration efforts:
- devising means to ensure that international agreement
integrates (gives credit for) current actions, other
international agreements (forestry, VOCs, GHGs covered
by ozone agreements), other domestic laws and
initiatives. (DOJ, EPA, State)
-- Future work:
- Demonstrate incentive advantages of integration
- lack of integration would yield perverse
disincentives to take actions, even actions that
are justified on other grounds, lest they be
denied credit once emissions limitations are
agreed. Priority: high. Timeline: 3 months.
- Address possible overclaiming (see "monitoring" and
"verification," above). Priority: medium. Timeline:
18 months.
- Analyze advantages for other nations under integrated
design. Priority: high. Timeline: 3 months.
- Analyze environmental advantages of integration.
Priority: medium. Timeline: 3 months.
- Address issues of legal grafting presented by terms
or design of other agreements, laws. Priority: high.
Timeline: 3 months.
* REVIEW DRAFT page 27 *
- Consider possible offset model (e.g. defining any
limitation obligations in terms of CO2 emissions, to
satisfy those eager for CO2 limits, but authorize
offsets for any verifiable limits on any GHG, source,
or sink, thus effectively constructing a comprehensive
approach). Priority: medium. Timeline: 3 to 18
months.
Research and Analysis Underlying the Incentives Approach
As described in the Introduction, a variety of market-based
incentives might be considered in the climate change context.
The possible uses and advantages of these approaches are
summarized in the Introduction.
I.
Emissions trading
(A) Domestic trading
-- Current Administration efforts:
- review of past and current experience, e.g. lead
phasedown, netting/bubble/offset program, CFCs
trading, new acid precipitation trading scheme.
Primarily EPA, DOE, CEA.
- consider application to GHGs; consider issues of
implementation, e.g. informal versus formal
trading; who would trade; duration of allowances;
means of distributing allowances; market power;
hoarding; scope of GHGs, sectors, sources and
sinks; monitoring trades; etc.
-- Future work:
- Evaluate the comparative cost-effectiveness of
emissions trading and command-and-control
approaches. Priority: high. Timeline: 3 to 18
months.
(B) International trading
-- Current Administration efforts:
- present US experience and suggestions at
international discussion on application to climate
-- Future work:
- Extend analysis of above issues to international
context, e.g. informal versus formal trading; who
* REVIEW DRAFT page 28 *
would trade; duration of allowances; means of
distributing allowances; market power; hoarding;
scope of trading among GHGs, sources, sinks,
sectors, industries, geographical areas, stages of
development; monitoring trades. Priority: medium.
Timeline: 3 to 18 months.
- In addition, consider international
institutions; trade, assistance and national
income implications; sovereignty issues; cultural
or ethical objections to so-called "selling the
right to pollute"; trading as a decentralized,
market-based vehicle for resource and technology
transfers. 17 Priority: medium. Timeline: 3 to
18 months.
- Assess informational, administrative, and other
transactions costs of emissions trading and
command and control policies. Priority: medium.
Timeline: 3 to 18 months.
- Identify opportunities for cross-national
trades, and hence likely trading partners (for the
US and worldwide). Priority: high. Timeline: 3
months.
- Evaluate the comparative cost-effectiveness of
emissions trading and command-and-control
approaches. Priority: medium. Timeline: 3
months.
II. Emissions fees
Fees might be employed domestically or internationally
to address GHG emissions. Options discussed to date include
carbon taxes based on the carbon content of energy fuels, and
energy taxes. Other options include an energy sector tax that
covers both CO2 and CH4 emissions from energy activities, using
their GWP index ratings to weight the tax; and a more general
multi-sector tax calibrated to the GWP index (or full
environmental impacts index) rating of each gas.
-- Current Administration efforts:
- analysis of energy sector taxes in DOE/NES
- analysis of various fees in EPA "Comprehensive
Budget" analysis
- related efforts: numerous studies have used assumed
taxes to examine costs of GHG limitations policies.
E.g. CBO (Montgomery), Manne & Richels, Nordhaus. See
CEA overview of Economics of Global Change.
17 In addition, consider the options for trading within
regional associations such as OECD, EC, ASEAN. Evidently the EC
and OECD are both considering association-wide policies.
* REVIEW DRAFT page 29 *
-- Future work:
- Improve assessment of tax implications. Consider
international fuels market impacts; use general
equilibrium models; address fiscal concerns. Priority:
high. Timeline: 3 months.
- Consider variety of tax policy designs, including,
carbon, energy, GWP within energy sector, etc.
Priority: high. Timeline: 3 months.
- Much of this kind of consideration must be deferred
to budget negotiations.
III. Adaptation Incentives
Market mechanisms and institutional reforms could be used to
encourage efficient adaptation practices. Because of current
institutional or market failures, long-range investments, such as
coastal construction or water use planning, might be undertaken
without giving appropriate weight to any climate change risks
(e.g. rising sea levels or shifting precipitation). Such
institutional or market failures might be addressed by
informational or incentive-based policies, such as requiring
coastal construction to purchase subsidence insurance, or
encouraging long-range water use planning to take account of
potential precipitation patterns. Some of these types of
policies were addressed in the IPCC/RSWG RUMS and CZMS reports.
IV. Economic instruments in general
-- Future work:
- Pursue contacts with OECD regarding Environment
Ministerial in January, Economic Instruments analytic
workplan (experts meeting now tentatively slated for October
1990), and potential OECD Workshop on Economic
Instruments. 18 Priority: high. Timeline: 3 to 18 months.
- Develop suggestions for economic analysis and study of
economic instruments in upcoming IPCC Future Workplan
discussions (tentatively slated for December or January).
Priority: high. Timeline: 3 to 18 months.
18 Preparing for the suggested OECD Workshop on Economic
Instruments, tentatively slated for December 1990, will involve
considerations of forum and cosponsorship, logistics and timing,
relation to other OECD meetings, relation to other international
meetings, invitees, topics to address, an October experts
meeting, relation to the upcoming IPCC meeting on Future Work of
the IPCC, and US presentation( at the December Workshop.
* REVIEW DRAFT page 30 *
- Continue to work with CEES groups, including the new Ad
Hoc Economics task group, to develop economic analysis of
policy proposals and designs (addressing "comprehensive
approach" issues as well as "incentives" approach issues).
Priority: high. Timeline: 3 months to 5 years.
stewart
October 2, 1990
TASK FORCE ON COMPREHENSIVE AND INCENTIVES
APPROACHES TO CLIMATE
RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS PRIORITIES FOR THE NEXT THREE MONTHS
1. Draft a framework convention that
-- includes a science research section that addresses all GHGs,
sources and sinks;
-- provides for an international monitoring agenda for all GHGs,
sources and sinks
-- adopts or provides for development of a GHG index based on the
radiative forcing and other environmental effects of all GHGs,
and possibly incorporating radioactively active trace gases (e.g.
sulfate aerosols)
-- provides that any protocol (s) shall, to the extent feasible,
be comprehensive.
-- Mandates that any limitation protocols (s) (a) provides for
voluntary trading among nations in net GHG reductions (b)
provides "credit" for net GHG reductions achieved by nations
unilaterally through measures justified on other grounds, or
through other international, regional, or bilateral agreements
(e.g. forestry)
2. Develop an improved GHG index and an international process for
refining the index. Include, to the extent possible,
environmental effects other than radiative forcing.
3. Develop a plan for developing an international net GHG
monitoring system.
WE
4. Prepare "crisp retorts" to proposal for piecemeal measures by
pointing out the environmental and economic drawbacks of
agreements limited to particular GHGs, sources and sinks,
sectors, or groups of nations, or that use command and control
approaches. These also apply to congressional proposals.
5. Develop quantitative analysis and empirical examples to show
the environmental and economic advantages of a comprehensive
approach.
6. Update "report card" on the contributions to reducing net GHG
of US actions being taken on other grounds. Conduct similar
analyses of selected other nations.
7. Development of a concise but sophisticated vision of decision
making under uncertainty to counter simplistic versions of the
"precautionary principle. "
8. Develop capacity to analyze economic and environmental costs
and benefits of likely proposals by other nations.
9. Systematic intelligence gathering on the views and economic
initiatives of other nations who will be influential in
negotiations, and efforts to persuade them of our approach.
MEMORANDUM
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Warth
September 19, 1990
SUBJECT: Climate Change Report Unit
TO:
MARK KERRIGAN
FROM:
DICK SCHMALENSEE
3
class
Per our discussion yesterday, I've spent a few minutes
looking over the DOE White Papers you sent. In terms of binding,
I like the climate change report least; I'd like to have real
covers of some sort. My favorite in this regard is the
renewables paper, but use of such a fancy binding method may
raise cost or mechanical (since our report is thinner) problems
in this case.
Since we don't have much information that can go on our
cover/title page, I leave it to your artistic people to figure
out a design. The use of bars to fill space in the renewables
paper has a certain appeal; perhaps what little information we
have could be put inside a box of some sort. (I'm thinking now
of some EIA report I can't put my hands on.)
As to the look of the text, the climate change paper may
well be a good model -- if you can use a better grade of paper.
In its current incarnation, our report has a lot of underlining
of key points. Underlined material could be set in italics or,
alternatively, repeated in boxes as in the climate change paper,
though I worry that we may have too much underlining to make this
device workable. I would think that from a layout/design
perspective our main problem is that we have very few text-
breakers, so that almost any device that avoids page after page
of unbroken prose is worth considering. (My sense is that the
two-column format is likely to be helpful in this regard, but I
would defer to professionals.)
Finally, you agreed yesterday to let me know what sort of
disk you would like to receive. This report now exists as a
WordPerfect 5.0 file. Some systems can handle such files, while
others need straight ASCII files (with no special control codes).
A third alternative would involve our stripping some but not all
control codes. We will in any case provide hard copy that
conveys at least our original (stylistic) intent. Please let me
know -- this week if possible -- what your wizard would like to
receive from us.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
WASHINGTON
wr
MEMBER OF THE COUNCIL
February 15, 1991
MEMORANDUM FOR ROBERT REINSTEIN, STATE
FROM:
DICK SCHMALENSEE
DS/HG
SUBJECT:
Draft Testimony on Climate Negotiations
Although CEA generally agrees with the approach outlined in
the draft testimony, we believe that the following revisions
would strengthen and clarify the Administration position.
Page 5, second bullet: It would also be useful to raise the
issue of competitiveness with respect to developed as well as
developing country commitments. Therefore, delete the clause
"distort competitive positions". Substitute the following new
sentence after "restraining emissions."
We must also be sensitive to the fact that different forms
of commitments and the extent to which appropriate
commitments are applied unevenly will impact the competitive
position of both developing and industrialized nations.
Page 5, under A Comprehensive Approach: There is too much
emphasis on new net emissions reductions in our explanation of a
comprehensive approach. The second and third sentences of the
paragraph should be placed (with the obvious minor wording
changes) right before the final sentence. As now drafted, it may
appear that we have already accepted the need for new net
emissions reductions and are merely focused on minimizing costs.
Page 8, under Implementation Issues: Delete the third sentence,
which raises the thorny issue of how much growth developing
countries should be expected to give up to reduce GHGs without
providing any answer.
Page 9, second full paragraph: Delete the fourth sentence, which
suggests that "any international response" that results from
these negotiations" will take the form of new quantitative
commitments for GHG reductions.
Page 10, line 2: Add "as the United States had hoped."
Page 10, line 7: Substitute "recognizes the value of" for
"builds on". "Builds on" implies our acceptance of the view that
appropriate commitments will necessarily require actions that go
beyond our current actions.
Please let us know if there is any problem in accommodating
our concerns, or if other changes that you believe may be
troublesome to us are contemplated.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
WASHINGTON
Wub
in
MEMBER OF THE COUNCIL
December 10, 1990
TO:
ALLAN BROMLEY
BOB GRADY
DICK SCHMALENSEE
Chick
Chup
FROM:
SUBJECT: Research on the Economics of Global Change
While I have heard a lot about what a good job Howard
Gruenspecht did in leading the preparation of the CEES report on
research on the economics of global change, I haven't heard any
substantive reactions to the report's recommendations. (This is
perhaps because I missed the relevant Director's briefing.)
This is to let you know that I think the Gruenspecht group
did an excellent, thoughtful job and that I hope its
recommendations will be taken very seriously. The dollar amounts
they propose for this area are small, but the symbolic and
substantive payoffs from a serious, focused research program on
the economics of global change are potentially large.
The organizational changes they propose are of comparable
potential value and also deserve serious consideration. I would
hate to see this part of their proposal ignored because the forum
in which it should be discussed may not be immediately obvious.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
WASH3NGTON
Wruth
October 31, 1990
MEMBER OF THE glue COUNCIL
Clinke
Chose
MEMORANDUM FOR ADMIRAL JAMES D. WATKINS
THE SECRETARY OF ENERGY
FROM:
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE OK
SUBJECT:
Production of the Interagency Report on
The Economics of Long-Term Global Climate Change
As the chairman of the interagency task force that wrote
this report, I want to express my personal thanks and those of
the other task force members for the Department of Energy's
handling of its production. I appreciate your generosity in
making available the necessary funds and people, and I appreciate
the speed, skill, and care with which the task of producing and
releasing the final report was done. Mark Kerrigan, in
particular, deserves a pat on the back.
When it was decided to revise and release the report (which
was originally distributed to the DPC Working Group on Global
Change in March), the objective was to raise the level of the
debate and to provide support for the U.S. position on a number
of climate change issues in a way that would not generate new
rounds of counter-productive rhetoric. Thanks in large measure
to your Department's efforts, I believe we have succeeded.
Wnh E fort
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20506
serve Chory MJB H4
September 17, 1990
MEMORANDUM FOR GLOBAL CHANGE STRATEGY TASK FORCE
FROM:
D. ALLAN BROMLEY
Auan
SUBJECT:
Global Change Strategy Task Force Meeting
The Global Change Strategy Task Force will meet Tuesday, September 18, 1990, at
2:00 p.m. in Room 180 of the Old Executive Office Building.
As we discussed at our last meeting, we will address several options relating to
organizational issues for the first negotiating session of the framework convention on
climate change. A draft options paper which addresses the timing, duration, and
location of the first negotiating session is attached.
In addition, the Department of State has prepared a list of the priority issues,
identified by the OES PCC Working Group on Environment, related to the proposed
Second World Climate Conference Ministerial Declaration (attachment A). Please
review and be prepared to comment on this list of major issues. A copy of an
annotated compilation of all comments on the full declaration is also attached for
your information (attachment B).
Attachments
MEMORANDUM
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
September 18, 1990
TO:
MICHAEL BOSKIN
FROM:
DICK SCHMALENSEE
SUBJECT: Today's Global Change Strategy
Task Force Meeting
This is in response to your request (via Harry) for a one-pager
on this meeting. You should know up front that I strongly doubt
that anything that will be discussed at this meeting merits your
attention. This mass of paper is Allan's initial response to
pressure to have this group deal with strategy, rather than with
last-minute line-edits of instructions to delegations. Nothing
on the agenda is last-minute, for once, but we will discuss
logistics and line-edits, not what most of us would call
strategy.
The first main item is the 4-page options paper dealing with
logistical issues surrounding U.S. hosting of the first
negotiating session of the framework convention on climate
change.
- We should probably propose a one-week session to limit
mischief unless there is strong international pressure
for a two-week session
-- The only counter is that we will have more leverage at
this session than later, so that a longer session
maximizes our leverage.
- I would think that we would have a strong preference for
February 4 over January 28 to minimize the risk of
stepping on the State of the Union.
- I can't imagine why we would want to have the session
outside Washington: press coverage wouldn't fall off
much, cost and hassles would rise, and the task of
control would be more complex.
-- This is a busy season for CEA, and I expect we will be
shut out of the game completely if it is not in
Washington.
This meeting is also supposed to discuss Attachement A,
which deals with major policy issues posed by the draft
Ministerial Declaration for the Second World Climate
Conference, which will be held in October. (The U.S. will
be represented by John Knauss of NOAA, not by a "minister,"
2
since we view this as a scientific meeting.) History
suggests we may not get to this item.
- What's here is not bad, but it does not deal with what,
if anything, we would refuse to sign. That, I would
argue, is strategy; what's here is tactics.
- The proposed language on targets and timetables is fine;
we should refuse to sign if we don't get paragraphs 20-22
gutted.
- The proposed language on the framework convention is also
fine; we can live with a slightly more expansive version
of the language on page 5.
- We should try to delete the financial assistance
paragraph; we should probably (per Admin. policy, not my
view) refuse to sign if it is strengthened.
- I'm happy to let the scientists wrestle with the language
on scientific understanding, but we should not sign
unless the hysterical draft language is toned down.
- The proposed tactics on the precautionary principle seem
fine; this is not a make-or-break issue.
O
I have not gone through the full marked-up declaration
(Attachement B), which is included for background only.
Howard is on the PCC that produced this beauty and seems
reasonable comfortable.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
GLOBAL CHANGE STRATEGY TASK FORCE
AGENDA
September 18, 1990
I.
First Negotiating Session of the Framework Convention on Climate Change
-- Date
-- Duration
-- Location
II.
Second World Climate Conference Ministerial Declaration
-- Major Issues
-- U.S. Comments on Declaration
III. Other Business
DRAFT
Framework Convention Negotiations - Organizational Session
I. BACKGROUND
At several past meetings, the Strategy Task Force of the Global Change Working
Group has discussed the U.S. position on the timing and length of session, location,
and level of representation at the negotiations for a climate change convention. It is
now essential that we get clearance on several decisions very soon so that: (a) the
President and the U.S. delegation can move forward to secure our offer to host the
first negotiating session (by having detailed preparations underway), (b) the US will
be well-prepared in its planning for the meeting, and (c) the US can, in fact, be
organized in its preparations for the negotiations by insuring that we have enough
lead time to get ready for the meetings.
The consensus on the best time for the climate change negotiations was to have them
begin in February 1991, perhaps during the first week of that month, preceded by an
October prepcom. This is, in fact, what is now underway.
On September 24, 1990 an intergovernmental meeting will be held on organizational
issues for the first negotiating session. A number of issues will be considered at this
meeting, several of which have not been resolved for the U.S. side. There are three
organizational issues which now need decisions:
(1)
Can we agree that the first negotiating session will begin the week of February
4-8?
(2)
Will the duration of the first negotiating session be one or two weeks?
(3)
Will the location of the session be in Washington, D.C. or elsewhere in the
U.S.?
-2-
II.
TIMING AND DURATION OF FIRST NEGOTIATING SESSION
The issue of timing involves not only the starting dates of the session, but also the
length of the session.
The two options are:
o
One week session, starting February 4
o
Two week session, starting either February 4 or January 28
Summary of Options:
o
OPTION 1 - A one week session beginning February 4: the first day (day and a
half) for opening ceremonies, confirmation of officers and agenda, and country
statements. These activities would be followed by plenary discussions on how
the negotiations will be organized, assignment of drafting tasks, and
identification of analytical work to be done by the IPCC.
PROS:
o
U.S. originally (informally) proposed this date and schedule to be
compatible with international meeting schedule.
o
This was chosen by U.S. as reasonable date to follow up on Presidential
offer.
CONS:
o
Could be too short period of time to finish all the work.
o
If longer session, might better to have longer meeting and insure our
points are incorporated into the negotiating outline.
0
OPTION 2 - A two week technical level working session beginning the last
week in January (favored by UNEP Executive Director Tolba). The session
could focus on negotiating outline of framework document.
-3-
PROS:
o
If there is strong international sentiment to do this, it could be
advantageous for the US.
o
If there is strong international sentiment to do this, the U.S. might be
perceived as foot-dragging if we did not.
CONS:
o
A one week session would allow a focus on basic organizational matters
o
Costs will be twice as much and there will be more time for mischief
III. LOCATION OF FIRST NEGOTIATING SESSION
The issue is whether to have the negotiating session in Washington, D.C. or elsewhere
in the U.S.
o
OPTION 1 - Washington, D.C.:
PROS:
o
Opportunity for Presidential appearance to provide a forum for
strengthening Presidential leadership on global change issue.
0
This would minimize costs and logistical arrangements. (Based on IPCC
Plenary experience, DOS now has good leads on potential sites,
conference services contractors, interpretation equipment and personnel,
translation and printing services, catering services, and representational
guest lists.)
CONS:
0
Greater distractions from Washington-based groups, and the Hill
o
Greater participation from press
-4-
0
OPTION 2 - Elsewhere in United States:
PROS:
0
Less distraction from Washington-based groups, and the Hill
o
Less participation from press
CONS:
0
Costs would be greater for all participants and logistics would be far
more difficult and expensive. (e.g., locating a reliable conference services
contractor at the site of the conference, scouting appropriate sites for
representational events, and making heavy investment on advance
teams).
0
More difficult for President to appear and advance leadership issue on
global change.
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A
Major Policy Issues
Second World Climate Conference
Ministerial Declaration
1. Targets and timetables for reducing greenhouse gas emissions
2. Stipulating the nature and content of a convention on
climate change
3. Financial Assistance
4. Statement concerning the scientific understandings
associated with climate change
5. Precautionary Principle
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-2-
1. Targets and timetables for reducing greenhouse gas emissions
Ministerial Declaration:
20. We stress, as a first step, the need to stabilize,
while ensuring stable development of the world economy,
emissions of greenhouse gases not controlled by the
Montreal Protocol. We note with appreciation the
unilateral commitments of some industrialized countries to
stabilize emissions at present level or reduce them by the
year 2000;
21. We agree that stabilization of greenhouse gas
emissions should be achieved by industrialized countries by
the year (2000) and should be set at (present) emission
levels;
22. We urge industrialized countries to establish
greenhouse gases reductions programmes aiming at achieving
at least 20% reduction of their current contribution to
global warming potential, possibly by the year 2005 and in
any case not later than the year 2010;
USG position:
We should not agree to specific targets and timetables. We
should take a comprehensive approach that includes all sources
and sinks of greenhouse gases and, in the short-term, Lake
those actions which are justified for reasons other than
climate change. USG proposed language for paras. 20 and 21
follows on page 3; para 22 should be deleted.
Houston Summit Communique:
"We are committed to undertake common efforts to limit
emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide.
The Second World Climate Conference provides the
opportunity for all countries to consider the adoption of
strategies and measures for limiting or stabilizing
greenhouse gas emissions, and to discuss an effective
international response."
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-3-
21. We recognize that the most effective response strategies,
especially in the short-term, are those which are:
Justified for reasons other than climate change and
1
also provide beneficial influence on potential
climate change:
1
Economically efficient and cost effective,
1
Able to serve multiple social, economic, and
environmental purposes:
Easily modified to respond to increased scientific ad
&
economic understanding of climate change;
Compatible with the concept of a comprehensive
2
approach addressing all sources and sinks of
greenhouse gases:
Compatible with the concept of sustainable economic
1
growth and development;
Administratively practical and effective in terms of
1
application, monitoring, and enforcement;
Inclusive of obligations by both industrialized and
-
developing countries.
22. We recommend that limitation and adaptation strategies be
considered as an integrated package that complement each
other to minimize net costs. These strategies should
include measures which limit emissions from greenhouse gas
sources as well as those which increase the ability of
natural systems to utilize greenhouse gases.
A
comprehensive approach is needed which considers the costs
of options for reducing emissions of different greenhouse
gases and the effects of those reductions on potential
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-4-
2. Stipulating the nature and content of a convention on
climate change
Ministerial Declaration:
23. We recommend that the specifications of the obligation
to stabilize and reduce greenhouse gases emissions be
realized in the form of: separate Protocols to the Climate
Convention. Some of these protocols could be negotiated
concurrently with the framework convention.
40. We recommend further that the Climate Convention and
associated protocols contain specific obligations and
address in particular:
(i) the enhancement of research and systematic
observation of climate
(ii) the control of greenhouse gas emissions
(iii) the adaptation to the adverse effects of climate
change in coastal areas
(iv) the needs of developing countries for financial
assistance in their development efforts and transfer of
technology
(v) appropriate institutional and decision-making
procedures.
USG position:
The declaration should not prejudge the negotiations. We
support the negotiation of a framework convention; at a
minimum, the declaration should be general and should advocate
a comprehensive approach that includes sources and sinks of all
greenhouse gases. USG would propose deleting para. 23; new USG
version of para. 40 follows on page 5.
Houston Summit Communique:
"We reiterate our support for the negotiation of a
framework convention on climate changes; implementing
protocols should consider all sources and sinks.'
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-5-
35. We recommend that such negotiations consider the possible
elements compiled by the IPCC, and that the Framework
Convention be framed in such a way as to gain the support
of the largest possible number of states. We recommend
that the Framework Convention contain, at a minimum, general
principles and obligations, and that it advocate a
comprehensive approach that includes sources and sinks .of
all greenhouse gases.
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-6.
3. Financial Assistance
Ministerial Declaration:
27. We recommend that additional resources should
progressively, be mobilized to help developing countries
take the necessary measures to address climate change
consistent with their development needs.
USG position:
We will not commit to providing new and additional funding
which increases the overall budget. We are already giving the
environment a higher priority in our assistance funding, both
bilateral and multilaieral, and believe that existing resources
and mechanisms must be fully utilized before new monies can be
considered. It will also be necessary to quantify the costs
associated with any actions in this area before consideration
of new funds can be justified. We will also note that the
provisions of the Montreal Protocol are not a precedent for
other environmental issues.
We understand that other countries may try to strengthen
this paragraph, calling for explicit reference to "new and
additional funding". USG proposes that para. 27 be deleted.
Houston Summit Communique:
"We recognize that developing countries will benefit from
increased financial and technological assistance to help
them resolve environmental problems
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4. Statements concerning the scientific understandings of
climate change.
Ministerial Declaration:
4. Climate has varied in the past. But the temperature
increase which is predicted to occur in the decades to come
due to the increasing accumulation of the greenhouse gases
in the atmosphere has not been encountered in the last
100,000 years at least; nor has the past rapidity of change
been as fast as that predicted. The greenhouse gases
result from a host of human activities such as the burning
of fossil fuel, deforestation, mining operations and waste
management.
8. Global warming poses environmental threat of a
magnitude the world has never known. Human activities
which have lead to the emissions of greenhouse gases into
the atmosphere have so far committed the Global Commons to
an irreversible warming so far
It is therefore
important that emissions of greenhouse gases, especially
carbon dioxide and other long lived greenhouse gases, be
reduced as soon as possible The long lived gases (CO2
and N20) would require at least 60% reductions in
emissions, and methane 15-20% reduction in emissions in
order to stabilize their concentration in atmosphere at
today's level.
USG position:
The declaration must accurately describe the scientific
context and uncertainties associated with potential climate
change. USG proposed language follows on page 8.
Houston Communique:
Does not address the scientific underpinnings.
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-6-
4. Climate has varied significantly in the past; however, the
potential change in global mean temperatures over the next
century associated with human activities is predicted to be
larger and more rapid than those seen in the last 10,000
years. The magnitude, timing, rate and regional
distribution of these predicted climate changes are
uncertain because of limitations in our present scientific
understanding of climate processes and in our ability to
model the behavior of climate systems and components. The
human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases, while
significant, are much smaller than the exchange between the
atmosphere and natural systems. Stabilization of
atmospheric concentrations of long-lived gases at today's
levels, for example, would require either a 60 to 80%
decrease in anthropogenic emissions or a 2 to 3% increase
in absorption by natural systems.
8. The potentially serious consequences of human-induced
climate change, however, give sufficient reasons to begin
adopting response strategies that are fully justified for
other reasons, even in the face of significant
uncertainties. These strategies could include:
improved energy efficiency, use of lower greenhouse gas-
emitting sources; improved forest management; development
of comprehensive coastal management plans; use of practices
to recycle and reuse CFC gases and their substitutes; and
improved agricultural practices.
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5. Precautionary Principle
Ministerial Declaration:
17. In order to achieve sustainable development, we must
base ourselves on the precautionary principle.
Environmental measures must anticipate, prevent and attack
the causes of environmental degredation. Where there are
threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full
scientitic certainty should not be used as a reason for
postponing measures to prevent environmental degredation.
USG position:
This definition was agreed to in the Bergen Declaration.
We expect other countries to reopen this language, at which
time we will seek to have the definition include a reference to
the no-regrets strategy. USG proposed language follows on page
10.
Houston Summit Communique:
"We agree that in the face of threats of irreversible
environmental damage, lack of full scientific certainty is
no excuse to postpone actions which are justified in their
own right."
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In order to achieve sustainable development, we must base
ourselves on the precautionary principle. Environmental
measures must anticipate,. prevent and attack the causes
of environmental degradation. Where there are threats of
serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific
certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing
measures to prevent environmental degradation which are
justified in their own right.
WORKING DRAFT
9/12/96
DRAFT
PRIORITY CONCERNS ON SWCC
Concern
Para
We need to correctly convey scientific context and
4
uncertainties.
8
We should take no-regrets actions.
9
17
20
22
All countries must share obligations.
20
24
We should take a comprehensive approach.
20
21
40
We will negotiate a framework convention only.
23
40
No new funding will be available
25
26
27
Preauty prive.
US COMMENTS ON SWCC DRAFT DECLARATION
General Comments
References should be to a framework convention on climate
change, rather than the Climate Change Convention;
There should be no mention of concurrent negotiation of the
framework convention and any implementing protocol (s);
References to limitation measures should include mention of
all GHGs and their sources and sinks, not just CO2;
References to funding should not call for additional
resources.
There should be no specific commitments to quantitative
reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
Text similar to that of the IPCC Policymakers Summaries and
other previously adopted documents should be as consistent
as possible with the texts of those sources.
References should be to "industrialized" and "developing"
countries, rather than "developed" and "less developed"
The subtitles in parentheses should be eliminated.
All paragraphs relating to the IPCC should be gathered
together in one section.
All paragraphs relating to the framework convention on
climate change should be gathered together in one section.
The small number of paragraphs dealing with science is
disproportionate to the large number dealing with policy
issues.
Key:
"Original Version" is the 13 July 1990 Draft prepared by
the SWCC organizers.
"Comments" are the August 24 US Comments provided via STATE
291963, with the amendments agreed to in Sundsvall.
"New Version" is the version distributed to other
governments during the 4th IPCC Plenary.
4
Original:
PREAMBLE
9.
wa, the Minictare from
countrico representing Lise would community
met in Geneva, Switzerland, from 6 to 7 November 1990 at the Second
World Climate Conference.
Comments:
Specific Changes
Delete title "Preamble"
Para 1, line 1: delete "the" before "Ministers".
Para 1, line 1: delete "representing the world community"
New Version:
1. We, Ministers from [
]
states, met in Geneva,
Switzerland, from 6to 7 November following the Second World
Climate Conference.
)
3.4
2
Original:
2.
our Meeting following the IPCC Report is a demonstration or our
intention to take active and constructive step in the global response to
the global climate change issue. It is also the expression of our will
to fully contribute to the preparation for the 1992 UN Conference on
Dnvironment and Development.
scientific understanding
Comments:
Para 2, line 2: replace "IPCC" with "adoption by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of its First
Assessment"
Para 2, line 2-3: replace "step in the global response to the
global climate issue" with "steps in response to concerns
regarding human-induced global climate change"
Para 2, line 4: delete last sentence
New Version:
2. Our Meeting, following the adoption by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of its First
Assessment Report, is a demonstration of our intention to take
active and constructive steps in response to concerns regarding
human-induced global climate change.
3
3
Original:
3.
Ever since Lite dawn of history, man's lite on earth has been largely
dependent on the environmental processes which we call weather and
climate. The world climate system consists of a delicately balanced
combination of many interactive components which include the atmosphere
and the biosphere, as well as the land, sea and ice surfaces.
Comments:
Para 3, line 1: delete "largely"
Para 3, line 3: delete "delicately balanced"
Para 3, line 4-5: add a comma after "atmosphere" and change
the rest of the sentence to read: "the oceans, the biosphere,
as well as land and ice surfaces."
New Version:
3. Since before the dawn of history, life on Earth has
depended on the natural processes we call weather and climate.
The world climate system has many interactive components which
include the atmosphere, the oceans, the biosphere, as well as
land and ice surfaces.
1.
4
Original:
4.
Climate has varied in the past. But the temperature increase which is
predicted to occur in the decades to come due to the increasing
accumulation of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has not been
encountered in the last 100,000 years at least; nor has the past
rapidity of change been as fast as that predicted. The groenhouse gases
result from a host of human activities such as the burning of fossil
fuel, deforestation, mining operations and wacte management.
USE IPCC OVERVIEW LANGUAGE
Comments:
-
-
Para 4, replace with:
Climate has varied significantly in the past; however, the
potential change in global mean temperatures over the next
century associated with human activities is predicted to be
larger and more rapid than those seen in the last 10,000
years. The magnitude, timing, rate, and regional
distributions of these predicted climate changes are
uncertain because of limitations in our present scientific
understanding of climate processes and in our ability to
model the behavior of climate systems and components. The
human caused emissions of greenhouse gases are much smaller
than the exchange between the atmosphere and natural
systems. Stabilization of atmospheric concentrations of
long-lived gases at today's levels, for example, would
require a 60-80% reduction in anthropogenic emissions
compared to a 2-3% increase in absorption by natural
systems.
New Version:
4. Climate has varied significantly in the past; however, the
potential change in global mean temperatures over the next
century associated with human activities is predicted to be
larger and more rapid than those seen in the last 10,000
years. The magnitude, timing, rate and regional distribution
of these predicted climate changes are uncertain because of
limitations in our present scientific understanding of climate
processes and in our ability to model the behavior of climate
system and components. The human-caused emissions of
greenhouse gases, while significant, are much smaller than the
exchange between the atmosphere and natural systems.
Stabilization of atmospheric concentrations of long-lived gases
at today' levels, for example, would require either a 60 to 80
percent decrease in anthropogenic emission or a 2 to 3 percent
increase in absorption by natural systems.
SUBS TACTILE
5
/
34?
3-4
SEE A24
Original:
5.
Recognising that climate change is a common concern of mankind United
Nations General Assembly's Resolution 43/53 urged the intergovernmental
and non-governmental organisations and scientific institutions, to treat
climate change as a priority issue, and to co-operate in research and
action-oriented programmes so as to increase the understanding of the
causes and effects of climate change.
Comments:
Para 5: add to the end of the paragraph:
Industrialized countries and developing countries have a
common responsibility in dealing with problems arising from
climate change.
(AND VARIED)?
New Version:
5. Recognizing that climate change is a common concern of
mankind, the United Nations General Assembly urged
intergovernmental and non-governmental organizations and
scientific institutions to treat climate change as a priority
issue and to cooperate in research, and action-oriented
programmes so as to increase the understanding of the causes
and effects of climate change. Industrialized countries and
developing countries have a common responsibility in dealing
with problems arising from climate change.
6
2
Original:
6.
The Want undertaken jointly by the HOLLO
Meteorological Organisation, the International Council of Ccientific
Unions with the co-operation of its Scientific Committee on Oceanic
Research, and UNESCO and its International Oceanographic Commission and
UNEP have endeavoured during the last decade to promote a quantitative
understanding of climate, and predictions of global and regional climate
changes on all time scales and on their potential impacts. Through its
three major projects the study of Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere,
the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment, and the World Ocean
Circulation Experiment, the World Climate Research Programme has
succeeded in providing valuable information on the causes, processes and
some of the effects of climate change.
Comments:
Para 6, lines 1-5: list all sponsors on an equal basis: WMO,
UNEP, ICSU including SCOR, UNESCO and its Intergovernmental
Oceanographic Commission
Para 6, line 5: replace "a quantitative understanding
impacts. with
an improved quantitative understanding of climate, advances
in predictions of global and regional changes on all time
scales and estimates of the potential impacts of these
changes.
Para 6, line 7-10: delete "Through its three.... Circulation
Experiment,"
Para 6, lines 11-12: replace both lines with:
improved our understanding of climate change processes,
thus providing valuable information on the causes and
possible manifestations of such change. However many
uncertainties remain and must continue to be addressed by
these and national scientific programs.
New Version:
6. The World Climate Programme, undertaken jointly by the
World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United Nations
Environment Program (UNEP), the International Council of
Scientific Unions (ICSU), with the cooperation of the
Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR), and the United
Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization
(UNESCO) and its Intergovernmental Oceanographic (IOC), has
endeavored during the last decade to promote improved
quantitative understanding of climate, advances in predictions
of global and regional climate changes on all time scales, and
estimates of the potential impact of these changes. The World
Climate Research Programme has improved our understanding of
climate processes, providing valuable information on the causes
and possible manifestations of climate change. However, many
uncertainties remain and must continue to be addressed by
international and national scientific programs.
2
Original:
7.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) established by
U.N.E.P. and W.M.O. has undertaken to study the problem of climate
change including global warming. Through the work of its various
Lentified
working groups 9 and their sub-groups the I.P.C.C. hav produced a
comprehensive report on the causes and effects of climate change. It
has also propcsor strategies to delay, limit or mitigate the impact of
climate change, and at the request of United Nations General Assembly
has proposed the elements for inclusion in a convention on climate.
also identified possible
Comments:
Para 7: place in a new section entitled "The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change" after rewriting as follows:
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was
established by WMO and UNEP to assess the current level of
scientific knowledge on climate change including its
possible impacts and options for limiting or adapting to
adverse impacts. Based on the work of its various working
groups and their subgroups the IPCC has produced its First
Assessment of global climate change. It has also
identified options to limit and to adapt to climate change,
and has identified elements to be considered for inclusion
in a framework convention on climate change and in possible
subsequent protocols.
New Version:
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
11. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was
established by WMO and UNEP to assess the current level of
scientific knowledge on climate change including its possible
impacts and options for Limiting or adapting to adverse
impacts. Based on the work of its various working group and
their subgroups, the IPCC has produced its First Assessment
Report on global climate change. Its Report identifies options
to limit and adapt to climate change and elements to be
considered for including in a framework convention on climate
change and in possible subsequent protocols.
8.
DEFINITION OF PROBLEM AND RISKS
8.
Global warming poses environmental threat of a magnitude the world }
never known before. Human activities which have lead to the emissic
Original:
of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere have so far committed the
Global Commons to an irreversible warming so far. In order to stem
unprecedented global warming likely to lead to serious environmental
consequences such as a rise in sea level of about 20 cm by the year
and 65 cm by the end of the next century urgent action should be tak
now. Carbon dioxide has been responsible for over half the enhanced
greenhouse effect in the past and is likely to remain so in the futu
It is therefore important that emissions of greenhouse gases especia
CO2 and other long lived greenhouse gases be reduced as soon as
possible. This is urgent because changes in emission rates of these
gases lead to a slow rate of change in their concentration in the
atmosphere. If action is delayed, it will take much longer and much
greater reductions at greater economic sacrifice to stabilize
concentrations at today's levels. The long lived gases (CO2 and N20
would require at least 60% reductions in cmissions, and methane 15-2
reduction in emissions in order to stabilise their concentrations in
Comments:
atmosphere at today's lovcle. The other gases of concern, namely LISE
CFC are addressed under the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Dep.
the Ozone Layer.
Para 8: delete the title "Definition of Problem and Risks"
Para 8: Replace with the following paragraph from RSWG
Policymakers Summary, page 12:
The consideration of climate change response strategies
present formidable difficulties for policymakers because
of: (a) remaining scientific uncertainties regarding
climate change; (b) uncertainty with respect to how
effective specific response options or groups of options
would be in actually limiting or averting potential climate
change: and (c) uncertainty with respect to the costs,
effects on economic growth, and other economic and social
implications of specific response options or groups of
options.
New Version:
7. The consideration of global climate change response
strategies presents formidable difficulties for policymakers
because of: (a) remaining scientific uncertainties regarding
climate change; (b) uncertainty in the effectiveness of
response options in actually limiting or adapting to potential
climate change; and (c) uncertainty in estimates of costs,
effects on economic growth, and other economic and social
implications of specific response options or groups of options.
4
/
Original:
GLOBAL STRATEGY
9.
We consider therefore that a global response must he decided and
implemented without further delay based on the best Available knowle
such as those resulting from the IPCC assessment.
Recognizing that the principle of equity should be the basis of any
global response to the climate change phenomena industrialized
countries, which are responsible for most of the observed increase 1
the groenhouse gases' concentration in the atmosphere must take the
lead, commit themselvec to immediate action and provide resources an
assistance to developing countries to help them in addressing climat
change in a way compatible with their dovclopment needs. [To this e
the industrialized countries will support developing countries with
additional and specific contributions.] [To this end there is a need
negotiate the necessary support needed by developing countries] [To
end there is a need to provide the necessary support, including
Comments:
additional and specific financial assistance to the developing count:
CHECK IPCC
Para 9: delete the title "Global Strategy"
OVERVIEW
Para 9: replace with the following:
+ PMS
The potentially serious consequences of human-induced
climate change, however, give sufficient reasons to begin
adopting response strategies that are fully justified for
other reasons even in the face of significant
uncertainties. These strategies could include improved
energy efficiency; use of cleaner, more efficient and lower
greenhouse gas-emitting energy sources; improved forest
management; development of comprehensive coastal management
plans; use of practices to recycle and reuse CFC gases and
their substitutes; and improved agricultural practices.
New Version:
8. The potentially serious consequences of human-induced
climate change, however, give sufficient reasons to begin
adopting response strategies that are fully justified for other
reasons, even in the face of significant uncertainties. These
strategies could include: improved energy efficiency, use of
lower greenhouse gas-emission sources; improved forest
management; development of comprehensive coastal management
plans; use of practices to recycle and reuse cfc gases and
their substitutes; and improved agricultural practices.
10.
EDITORIAL
Original:
ACKNOWLEDGMENT OF THE CONCLUSIONS OF LONDON CONFERENCE ON THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL
10. [Short text to be included after the conclusions of the London Meeting]
Comments:
significant
Para 10, replace text in parenthesis with:
We acknowledge the agreement of the Parties to the Montreal
Protocol in June in London to phase out substances that
deplete the ozone layer. This action, when implemented,
will have a beneficial influence on global climate change
by reducing human emissions of greenhouse gases,
We urge all states to participata in the Protocol and
implement the London agreements.
ratify
join
Edmendments
New Version:
The Montreal Protocol
10. We acknowledge the agreement of the Parties to the
Montreal Protocol in June in London to phase out substances
that deplete the ozone layer. This action, when implemented,
will have a beneficial influence on global climate change by
reducing human emissions of greenhouse gases by [ percent].
We urge all states to participate in the Protocol and implement
the London agreements.
WASCH FINAN. MECH. "PREZEDENT"
2
Original:
HEDGE
ENDORSMENT OF acknowledge THE CONCLUSION OF THE SCIENTIFIC PART OF SWCC
11.
We are highly appreciative of the work done by IPCC.
take note of
We accept and are highly appreciative of the conclusions and
recommendations of the scientific part of the Second World Climate
Conference as presented in the annex 1 of this Declaration. Their
implementation should be strongly supported by governments.
SECTION SEP
Comments:
Para 11, lines 1-4: replace with:
We acknowledge the conference statement of the scientific
and technical part of the Second World Climate Conference.
We urge all nations and relevant international
organizations to respond to the conference statement and
incorporate relevant actions into their scientific and
technical programs.
Para 11, lines 2-3: rewrite first part of sentence to read:
We are also appreciative of the conference statement of the
scientific part of the Second World Climate Conference
New Version:
The SWCC Conference Statement
14. We acknowledge the conference statement of the scientific
and technical part of the second world climate conference. We
urge all nations and relevant international organizations to
respond to the conference statement and incorporate relevant
actions into their scientific and technical programs.
12.
Original:
THEREFORE:
r. ROLE OF SCIENCE IN IMPROVING OUR UNDERSTANDING, CAPACITY OF PREDICTION AND
OUR RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
12.
We reaffirm that, in order to reduce uncertainties, to increase our
ability to predict (including early identification of as yet unknown
climate-related problems) and to design scientifically sound response
strategies, there is a need to strengthen both national and
international activities in research, monitoring, and data and
information exchange related to climate change.
Comments:
Para 12: delete the title "Therefore"
Para 12: title should read "Role of Science"
Para 12, lines 2-3: replace "(including early identification
of as yet unknown climate related problems) and to design
scientifically sound response strategies" with
climate and climate change on a global and regional basis
2
and to design response strategies that are scientifically
and economically sound
Para 12, line 5: scientific research, monitoring, analysis,
Para 12, line 6: add additional paragraph:
2
To this end, we pledge our full support to the needs of the
World Climate Program including contributions to the WMO
Special Fund for Climate and Atmospheric Environment
New Version:
Role of Science
15. We reaffirm that in order to reduce scientific
uncertainties, to increase our ability to predict climate and
climate change on a global and regional basis, and to design
response strategies that are scientifically and economically
sound, there is need to strengthen both national and
international activities in scientific research, monitoring,
JOOHER
analysis, and data and information exchange related to climate
change.
age
To this end, weipledge our full support to the needs of the
world climate program including contributions to the wmo
special fund for climate and atmospheric environmental studies.
13.
Original:
13.
Recognizing that climate changes are of a complex interdisciplinary
character, we urge the full participation of ccientists dealing with
atmosphere, the oceans and land, as well as with the physical, chemic
and biological processes needed for a deeper understanding of climate
issues. Given the intrinsically global nature of climate and climate
research, we stress the need to strenghten international cooperation.
The magnitude or the problem being addressed is such that no nation C
undertake it alone. It is imperative therefore, that, to the extent
feasible, national research programmes on climate be planned in such
way that they form integral parts of international research programme
We urge that special resources to sustain such programmes are made
available to less developed countries in order to insure their full
participation in the international research effort and the response
strategies based upon the results.
Comments:
2
?
R.
4
Para 13, line 1: climate change and its impacts
Para 13, line 10: replace "from integral parts of" with "are
2
consistent with and support"
Para 13, line 12: replace "less developed" with "developing"
Para 13, lines 13-14: delete "and the response strategies based
upon the results"
2
New Version:
16. Recognizing that climate change and its impacts are of a
complex interdisciplinary character, we urge the full
participation of all scientists who are expert in dealing with
the atmosphere, the oceans, and land as well as with the
physical, chemical and biological processes needed for deeper
understanding of climate issues. Given the intrinsically
global nature of climate and climate research, we stress the
need to strengthen international cooperation. The magnitude of
the problem being addressed is such that no nation can
undertake it alone. It is imperative therefore, that, to the
extent feasible, national research programmes on climate be
planned in such a way that they are consistent with and support
international research programmes. We urge that special
resources to sustain such programmes be made available to
developing countries in order to insure a full partnership in
the international research effort.
14.
3-4
EDIT.
Original:
14.
We stress that special efforts be directed to key areas of uncertainty,
including:
the role of clouds, ocean and greenhouse gases; ecosystem responses to
global change: effects of land-use changes in the hydrological cycle;
climate changes on a regional scale and the socio-economic and cultural
dimensions and impacts of climate change.
Comments:
Para 14, line 3-7: replace with
the roles of clouds, oceans, and greenhouse gases;
ecosystem interactions with climate; net emissions of
greenhouse gases; types and levels of atmospheric aerosols;
effects of land-use changes in climate change: regional
climate change; and the regional socio-economic and
ecological implications of impacts of climate change.
New Version:
17. We stress that special efforts be directed to key ares of
uncertainty, including: the roles of clouds, oceans and
greenhouse gases; ecosystems interactions with climate; net
emissions of greenhouse gases; types and levels of atmospheric
aerosols; effects of land-use changes on climate change;
regional climate; and regional socioeconomic and ecological
implications of climate change.
15.
Original:
15.
We consider that research programmes must be accompanied by long-term
monitoring programmes so designed as to provide continuous and
comprehensive coverage of climate-influencing variables as well as those
useful in detecting climate change. We agree that long term
governmental commitments are necessary to sustain these monitoring
programmes. We ask further-more that obstacles to the free flow of
relevant data and information be removed.
Comments:
LDC SOVEREIGNTY ISSUE
?
Para 15: replace last two sentences with:
We recommend that governments make the long term
commitments necessary to the development and operations of
these monitoring and data management programs. We fully
support the Climate Change Detection Project of WMO with
its goal of regularly providing assessments of the state of
the global climate to all governments.
Para 15, line 7: add a new paragraph:
"free" full" vs
We support the free Cull ànd open exchange of relevant data
between nations, recognizing its important use in
monitoring, detecting and predicting and understanding
climate and climate change. It is critically important to
move ahead as quickly as possible with the development of
integrated, comprehensive (satellite and in situ) ocean and
terrestrial monitoring systems and with the improvement of
the existing atmospheric system. We agree to strengthen
and improve the utilization of our current data resources
by improving the quantity, quality and accessibility of
these data. We recommend that governments make the
long-term commitments necessary to the development and
operation of these monitoring and data management
programs. We stress that full and open access to relevant
data and information by global change researchers from all
countries must be a fundamental principle of international
climate data policy, and we urge countries to establish
national policies and administrative practices consistent
with this principle.
New Version:
18. We consider that research programmes must be accompanied
by long-term monitoring programmes so designed as to provide
continuous and comprehensive coverage of climate-influencing
variables as well as those useful in detecting climate change.
We recommend that governments make the long-term commitments
necessary to the development and operation of these monitoring
and data management programs. We fully support the Climate
Change Detection Project of WMO with its goal of regularly
providing assessments of the state of the global climate to all
governments.
15(continued)
New Version:
19. We support the free and open exchange of relevant data
between nations, recognizing its important use in monitoring,
detecting, predicting and understanding climate and climate
change. It is critically important to move ahead as quickly as
possible with the development of integrated, comprehensive
(satellite and in situ) ocean and terrestrial monitoring
systems and with the improvement of the existing atmospheric
system. We agree to strengthen and improve the utilization of
our current data resource by improving the quantity, quality,
and accessibility of these data. We recommend that governments
make the long-term commitments necessary to the development and
operation of these monitoring and data management programs. We
stress that the free and open access to relevant data and
information by climate and global change researchers from all
countries must be a fundamental principle of international
climate data policy, and we urge countries to establish
national policies and administrative practices consistent with
this principle.
16.
Original:
16.
We reaffirm that there is no need to establish new international
coordination mechanisms, but rather urge all countries and relevant
organizationo to contribute through their national efforts and to
increase financial support and assistance in kind on a sustained basis
to important existing programmes such as the World Climate Programme
including the WMO/ICSU World Climate Research Programme, the ICSU
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, and the climate-related
components of programmes of WMO, UNEP, Unesco and its IOC and FAO. We
further urge that these programmes be better supported in order to
continue to strengthen their interdisciplinary approach, to include the
participation UC all nations, and to increase coordination in order to
achieve still greater efficiency.
Comments:
2-3
Para 16: line 1: add "scientific" after "international"
Para 16: line 3: delete "through their national efforts"
Para 16: lines 9-12: redraft final sentence as follows:
We further urge that these programs continue to strengthen
their interdisciplinary approach, broaden national
participation, and strive for more effective coordination.
New Version:
20. We reaffirm that there is no need to establish new
international scientific coordination mechanisms, but rather
urge all countries and relevant organizations to contribute and
increase financial support and assistance in kind on a
sustained basis to important existing programmes such as the
World Climate Programme, including the WMO/ICSU World Climate
Research Programme; and the climate-related components of
programmes of WMO, UNEP, UNESCO and its IOC, and FAO. We
further urge that these programs continue to strengthen their
interdisciplinary approach, broaden national participation, and
strive for more effective coordination.
17.
WATCH
Original:
II. POLICY TARGET FOR URGENT POLICY ACTION
(Precautionary measures)
17.
In order to achieve sustainable development, we must base ourselves on
BERBEN
the precautionary principle. Environmental measures must anticipate,
prevent and attack the causes of environmental degradation. Where there
QUOTE
are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific
certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing measures to
prevent cnvironmental degradation.
Buyen
quote
Comments:
Para 17: title should read: "Policy Considerations"
Para 17: add at the end of the paragraph "which are justified
in their own right"
t
(Hreston in version)
7
New Version:
9. In order to achieve sustainable development, we must base
ourselves on the precautionary principle. Environmental
measures must anticipate, prevent and attack the causes of
environmental degradation. Where there are threats of serious
or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty
should not be used as a reason for postponing measures to
prevent environmental degradation (which are justified in their
own right.
pdl.
If cant set releat want, Jrude to
stick e Bugen
18.
4
Original:
18. We note that a mechanism is being set up/by WMO and UNEP to undertake
the necessary intergovernmental negotiations on global warming.
ADD TO IPCC
FOLLOW-UP - UP
Comments:
4
Para 18: move to end of Declaration to new section entitled
"Framework Convention on Climate Change" after rewriting to
read:
We note that a mechanism has been created by WMO and UNEP
for intergovernmental negotiations on a framework
convention on climate change.
Not in new version
19.
/
Original:
(Stabilization and reduction of greenhouse gases)
19.
We recognise the fundamental need to conserve the global climate,
and
protect it from anthropogenic interference. Taking into account that
REWRITE
the increase of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere threaten
the natural variability of climate, we agree that the ultimate global
objective should be to stabilize and reduce thoce concentrations.
EMISSIONS VS CONCENTRATIONS
Comments:
Para 19: delete entirely to improve balance between science
paragraphs and policy paragraphs
BAD LANG.; MEANINGFUL
PARTS ELSEWHERE?
LOOK EOR BERGEN/NOORDWIJK VAR.
20,
Original:
20.
We stress, as a first step, the need to stabilize, while ensuring stable
development of the world economy, emissions of greenhouse gases not
controlled by the Montreal Protocol. We note with appreciation the
unilateral commitments of some industrialised countries to stabilize
emissions at present level or reduce them by the year 2000.
(OVERVIEW)
ADD
PMS
11I,7.13
/
Comments:
Para 20: ewrite as follows:
We recognize that the most effective response strategies,
especially in the short-term, are those which are:
Justified for reasons other than climate change and
also provide beneficial impacts on potential climate
change;
BEALEN *NOORD
Economically efficient and cost effective;
Able to serve multiple social, economic, and
environmental purposes;
Easily modified to respond to increased scientific and
economic understanding of climate change:
Compatible with the concept of sustainable economic
growth and development:
Compatible with the concept of a comprehensive
approach that deals with all sources and sinks of
IPCC RSGG pms
greenhouse gases;
Administratively practical and effective in terms of
application, monitoring, and enforcement; and
P.13
Inclusive of obligations by both industrialized and
developing countries in addressing this issue.
?
New Version:
Policy Considerations
21. We recognize that the most effective response strategies,
especially in the short-term, are those which are:
- Justified for reason other than climate change and also
provide beneficial influence on potential climate change;
- Economically efficient and cost effective;
- Able to serve multiple social, economic, and environmental
purposes;
- Easily modified to respond to increased scientific and
economic understanding of climate change;
- Compatible with the concept of a comprehensive approach
addressing all sources and sinks of greenhouse gases;
- Compatible with the concept of sustainable economic growth
and development;
- Administratively practical and effective in terms of
application, monitoring, and enforcement;
- Inclusive of obligations by both industrialized and
developing countries.
21.
/
Original:
21.
We agree that stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions should be
achieved by industrialized countries by the year 2000] and should be
set at [present] emission levels.
INDUST. /ASAP /
(BERGEN/NOORD.) (BERGEN /NOORD.)
Comments:
Para 21: rewrite as follows:
We recommend that limitation and adaptation strategies be
considered as an integrated package that complement each
other to minimize net costs. These strategies should
include measures which limit emissions from greenhouse gas
sources as well as those which increase the ability of
natural systems to utilize greenhouse gases. A
comprehensive approach is needed which considers the costs
of reducing emissions of different greenhouse gases and the
effects of those reductions on potential climate change.
ADD 70 H 20
New
Version:
21. We recommend that limitation and adaptation strategies be
considered as an integrated package that complement each other
to minimize net costs. These strategies should include
measures which limit emissions from greenhouse gas sources as
well as those which increase the ability of natural system to
utilize greenhouse gases. A comprehensive approach is need to
which considers the costs of options for reducing emissions of
different greenhouse gases and the effects of those reductions
on potential climate change.
22.
Original:
/
22.
We urge industrialized countries to astablich greenhouse gases reduction
programmes aiming at achieving at least 20% reduction of their current
contribution to global warming potential, possibly by the year 2005 and
in any case not later than the year 2010;
Comments:
Para 22: delete entirely to improve balance between science
paragraphs and policy paragraphs
1
Original: net
23-
(a)
(one or
any
more)
23. We recommend 1 that the specifications of the obligation to stabilize and
Protoco 7 to the Climate Convention. Some of these protocols be
reduce greenhouse gases emissions be realized in the form of separate could
negotiated concurrently with the framework convention.
MOVE TO SEP. SECTION
Comments:
Para 23: delete entirely; point addressed in para 37-8.
24.
Original:
(Economic situation of certain countries)
24.
We recognize that developing countries with, as yet, relatively low
energy requirements, which can reasonably be expected to grow in step
with their development, may have laryets that accommodate that
development. We also recognize that additional financial resources
[will] [may] have to be made available LO developing countries to enable
them to limit their net emissions of greenhouse gases while ensuring a
steady development or Uneir economles;
Comments:
Para 24: replace with page ii of RSWG Policymakers Summary:
We note that all countries have a common responsibility for
dealing with problems arising from climate changes
Industrialized countries should adopt domestic measures to
limit climate change by adapting their own economies in
line with future agreements to limit emissions.
Industrialized countries should also cooperate with
loping countries in international action, without
standing in the way of the latter's development.
Developing countries should, within limits feasible, take
measures to suitably adapt their economies. Because a
large, projected increase in world population is a major
factor in causing the projected increase in global
2
greenhouse gases, it is essential that global climate
change strategies include strategies and measures to deal
with the rate of growth of the world population.
MEX:
New Version:
23. We note that all countries have a common responsibility
for dealing with problems arising from climate change.
Industrialized countries should adopt domestic measures to
limit greenhouse gas emissions by adapting their own economies
in line with future agreements to limit such emissions.
Industrialized countries should also cooperate with developing
countries in international action addressing climate change,
without standing in the way of the latter's development.
Developing countries should, within limits feasible, take
measures to suitably adapt their economies. Because a large,
projected increase in world population is a major factor in
causing the projected increase in global greenhouse gases, it
is essential that global climate change strategies include
strategies and measures to deal with the rate of growth of the
world population.
25.
Original:
(Fund (Climate Fund))
25.
We recommend that existing institutions for development and financial
assistance including the World Bank and other Multilateral Development
Banks, Bilateral Assistance Programmes, the relevant United Nations
organisations and specialized agencies, and scientific and technological
organisations should give greater attention to climate change issues
within their environmental and other relevant programmes by providing
1
expanded funding including concessional funding. In addition, regional
and subregional co-operation should be reinforced and funded so as to
address and implement the required action at that level.
Comments:
CHECK
RPT.
IPCC
Para 25: delete "by providing expanded funding including
concessional funding"
New Version:
24. We recommend that existing institutions for development
and financial assistance including the world bank and other
multilateral development bank, bilateral assistance programmes,
the relevant United Nations organizations and specialized
agencies, and scientific and technological organizations give
greater attention to climate change issues within thein
environmental and other relevant programmes. In addition,
regional and sub-regional cooperation should be reinforced and
funded so as to address and implement the required action at
that level.
26.
Original:
whetherthere Ba
a
ten
26.
We commend that consideration should be given to the need for funding
facilities including a clearinghouse mechanism and a possible new
international fund and their relationship to cxisting funding
mechanicms, both multilateral and bilateral. Such funding should be
related to the implementation of the climate convention and associated
protocols. In the meantime the donor community is urged to provide
assistance to developing countrics to support immediate actions
addressing climate change without waiting for the Convention.
HOLD LINE
Comments:
Para 26: replace with:
We recommend that financial resources channelled to
developing countries to limit and/or adapt to climate
change be focused on those activities which contribute both
to limiting greenhouse gas emissions and promoting economic
development.
New Version:
25. We recommend that financial resources channelled tp
developing countries to limit and/or adapt to climate change be
focused on those activities which contribute both to limiting
greenhouse gas emissions and promoting economic development.
We recommend further that the scope of resource needs for these
activities be assessed for developing countries. Such
assessments should include, inter alia, country studies and the
capabilities of existing institutions and mechanisms to meet
the financing needs identified.
27,
/
Original:
27.
We recommend that additional resources should progressively, be
mobilized to help developing countries take the necessary measures to
address climate change consistent with their development needs.
Comments:
Para 27: delete in its entirety.
28,
Original:
28.
We recommend further that the scope of resources needed be assessed.
Such assessments should include inter alia country studies and the
capabilities of existing institutions and mechanisms to meet the
financing noods identified, similar to the approaches developed under
the Montreal Protocol.
Cas has been done ender
BIT.
CEAVE AS 15
Comments:
Para 28, line 1: after "assessed" add "for Geveloping
countries".
Para 28, lines 4-5: delete "similar to the approaches
developed under the Montreal Protocol."
Combined into para 25 of rew version
New Version:
25. We recommend that financial resources channelled to
developing countries to limit and/or adapt to climate change be
focused on those activities which contribute both to limiting
greenhbuse gas emissions and promoting economic development.
We recommend further that the scope of resource needs for these
activities be assessed for developing countries. Such
assessments should include, inter alia, country studies and the
capabilities of existing institutions and mechanisms to meet
the financing needs identified.
29.
Original:
29.
We recommend that, initially, international funding be directed to
(i)
conducting research and monitoring;
(ii) promoting public awareness, education and institutional and
manpower development.
such as
(111) promoting efficient use of energy, including appropriate end us
technologies, increasing the use of non-fossil fuels and
switching to energy sources with lower greenhouse gas emissions.
and the use of renewable energy sources;
NEEP
(iv)
increased financial support for forest protection and forest
management improvement, for example through the Tropical Forestr
Action Plan (TFAP), the Plan of Action to Combat Desertification
the International Tropical Timber ORganization (ITTO) and other
relevant international organizations;
(v)
arranging for technology transfer to and technology development
in developing countries;
(vi)
assisting developing countries in planning how to address
problems posed by climate change;
(vii) supporting developing countries to enable their full
participation in international meetings on the subject of climat
change.
KILLOR
The use of financial resources could subcoquontly be outended inter ali
to major energy sources with little or no environmentally damaging
KEEP INTER AW+)
characteristics and for steps to reduce other global man-made emissions
of greenhouse gases due to human activities.
Comments:
Para 29, line 1, subpara (iii) : break into two subparas by
starting new subpara with "increasing the use of...."
Para 29, line 1, subpara (iv): delete "financial"
Para 29, para 1, subpara (iv): following "for example through"
add "a global forestry agreement".
Para 29, para 1, subpara (v) : replace with:
(v) fostering technology development and transfer of
technology that is usable and applicable to economic
development opportunities that would be beneficial to
developing countries.
Para 29, para 1, subpara (vii): replace "their full" with
"greater"
Para 29, para 1, subpara (vii) replace "meetings" with
"activities"
Para 29, para 1, add new subpara (viii):
(viii) improving climate data management related to global
and regional data sets with special emphasis on developing
country requirements.
Para 29, second paragraph: delete entirely
29 (continued)
New Version:
26. We recommend that initially international funding be
directed towards:
(i) conducting research and monitoring;
(ii) promoting public awareness, education and institutional
and manpower development;
(iii) promoting efficient use of energy, including appropriate
end use technology;
(iv) increasing the use of non-fossil fuels and switching to
energy sources with lower greenhouse gas emissions and the use
of renewable energy sources:
forest (v) management, for example through a global forestry
increasing support for forest protection and improving
agreement, the Tropical Forestry Action Plan (TFAP), the Plan
of Action to Combat Desertification, the International Tropical
Timber Organization (ITTO) and other relevant international
organizations; (vi) arranging for technology transfer to and technology
development in developing countries;
(vii) assisting developing countries in planning how to
address problems posed by climate change;
(viii) supporting greater participation of developing countries
in international climate change activities; and
(ix) improving climate data. management related to global and
regional data sets with special emphasis on developing country
requirements.
30.
Original:
(Economic instruments)
30.
We recognise that an environmentally sound development must include
policies which will achieve a sustainable energy system and take the
environmental costs and benefits of energy fully into account. We are
convinced that promoting energy efficiency is the most cost effective
immediate measure for reducing eneryy-related emissions of atmospheric
pollutants, in particular C02.
Comments:
Para 30, replace with:
We recognize that environmentally sound development must
2
include policies which consider the costs and benefits of
energy use. We are convinced that, in many states,
increasing energy efficiency is one of the most cost
effective measures for reducing energy elated emissions of
greenhouse gases.
Para 30, line 6: add new sentence at end as follows:
However, considerable research is necessary for each nation
to establish what degree of energy efficiency is also
x
economically efficient taking into account environmental
externalities.
New Version:
27. We recognize that environmentally sound development must
include policies which consider the costs and benefits of
energy use. We are convinced that, in many states, increasing
energy efficiency is one of the most cost effective measures
for reducing energy-related emissions of greenhouse gases.
However, considerable research is necessary for each nation to
establish what degree of energy efficiency is also economically
efficient taking into account environmental externalities.
31.
Original:
31. We recommend that [now] policies at national level L&I established making
extensive use of economic instruments in order to Increase energy
efficiency and reduce energy consumption.
Such instruments could include:
(i)
taxes on environmentally damaging activities and energy
inefficient product
COULD
(11) emission trading (tradeable permits/allowances)
CALLEACIA
(111) reduction or, wherever possible, elimination of subsidies to
energy intensive and other activities that induce climate change
(iv) other measures such as emission changes and fees deposit refund
systems and fiscal incentive
/
C/W
Such action should in particular affect energy prices with the aim to
reflect onvironmental costs and bonofito and provide incentives to
1
reduce energy consumption. They should also mođify production and
consumption pattern and encourage production and use of energy efficient
technologies.
Comments:
Para 31, para 1, line 1: replace "new policies at the national
level be established making" with "policies at the national
level make"
Para 31, line 3: replace "reduce energy consumption" with
"conservation"
3
Para 31, subpara (iii): delete "energy intensive and"
Para 31, subpara (iv): replace "change" with "charge"
Para 31, subpara (iv): move "fiscal incentives" to before
"measures" and delete the word "and" at the end.
Para 31, para 2 (on p. 7): delete this paragraph.
New Version:
28. We recommend that policies at the national level increase
energy efficiency and conservation, making use of economic
instruments including:
(i) taxes on environmentally damaging activities and energy
inefficient products;
(ii) emission trading (tradeable PERMITS/allowances);
(iii) reduction or, wherever possible, elimination of
subsidies to activities that induce climate change; and
(iv) other fiscal incentive measures such as emission charges
and fee-deposit-refund systems.
32.
Original:
(Technology development)
32.
we agroo that technological broakthrough in a wide range of fields
covering energy, industry and other sectors related to the emission and
absorption of CO2 and other greenhouse gases is the key element of any
KEEP
long-term stialeyy Lisal duals with climate change in a way that meets
the goal of sustainable development. To this end, we urge all
countries, the industrialized countries in particular, to intensify
their individual efforts and international cooperation in technology
development concerning, inter alia, low-energy and low-GHG production
processes and products (e.g. chlorofluorocarbon substitutes with little
or no global warming potential), and CO2 fixation and reutilization.
Comments:
Para 32, line 3: delete "CO₂ and other"
Para 32, line 4-5: delete "in a way
sustainable development"
Para 32, line 6: delete "the industrialized countries in
particular,"
Para 32, lines 7-10: replace "in technology developing " with
on technologies and practices which reduce emissions or
increase absorption of greenhouse gases.
New Version:
29. We agree that technological breakthrough in a wide range
of fields covering energy, industry and other sectors related
to the emission and absorption of greenhouse gases is the key
element of any long-term strategy that deals with climate
change. To this end, we urge all countries to intensify their
individual efforts and international cooperation on
technologies and practices that reduce emissions or increase
absorption of greenhouse gases.
33.
Original:
(Transfer of technology)
[Alternative 1]
33.
We urge that relevant technology be utilized by all sectors in all
countries to the full extent possible. We recognize that there are
great disparities in energy efficiency, even among the industrialized
countries, and further urge all countries, industrialized and
developing, to identify and take effective measures to remove barrier
to the dissemination of the best available technology. This requires
in the case of developing countries, effective measures to aid their
efforts in meeting the specific needs arising, to a great extent, fro
their lack of human and financial resources and other elements necess
for the continuous development and diccomination of the most appropri
technology. The East European countries, which are currently sufferi:
the consequences of inefficient use of energy and other resources, al.
require special attention. To this end, we also urge all industriali.
countries and relevant international institution to slep up their
contributions to the effective transfer and dissemination of relevant
technology in vago than swidy address List constratula Llial all Luese
countries face.
[Alternative 2]
33.
We consider important that this expansion of development employ
appropriate and environmentally sound technology in order that the
problem of global warming and climate change not be exacerbated.
Consequently, the transfer and development of such technologies must
assume a high priority. Tt will he important for the inductrial natic
to respond to this priority and assign sufficient recources to assure
technological development and establishment of mechanisms for successf
transfer.
Comments:
Para 33, We prefer Alternative 2.
Para 33, Alternative 2: replace "this expansion of" with
"economic" on line 1
Para 33, Alternative 2: delete "and environmentally sound" on
line 2
Para 33, Alternative 2: replace "technology in order
exacerbated" with "technologies and practices" on line 2
Para 33, Alternative 2: revise second sentence as follows:
Consequently, consideration of effective mechanisms to
develop and transfer such technologies must be accorded a
high priority.
Para 33, Alternative 2, lines 5-8: Rewrite last sentence to:
It is important for both industrialized and developing
nations to respond to this priority, by creating conditions
2
that would be conducive to the development and transfer of
such technologies and practices.
New Version:
30. We consider important that economic development employ
appropriate technologies and practices. Consequently,
consideration of effective mechanisms to develop and transfer
such technologies must be accorded a high priority. It is
important for both industrialized and developing nations to
respond to this priority by creating conditions that would be
conducive to the development and transfer of such technologies
Original:
34.
(Forestry)
34.
We recognize that the conservation of the world's forests is of crucial
importance for global climatic stability, particularly having regard to
the important contribution of forest destruction to global warming
through the emission of carbon-dioxide, mothane and other trace gases.
We stress the need to reduce the rate of deforestation and to enhance
the potential of the world's forests as a sink for greenhouse gases,
through urge vigorous the earliest programmes com of pletion reforestation of the and feasibility of achieving of
We endorse the target included in the Noordwijk Declaration
1
net global forest growth of 12 million hectares per year, through
conservation of existing forests and through agressive programmes of
reforestation and afforestation.
We call on all countries to:
(i)
Adopt clear objectives for the conservation, reforestation and
custainable management of corcolo iss national development plans.
EDIT.
(11),
Amend national policies to minimize forest loco and their human
disturbance associated with public and private development
projects (e.g. roads, dams, resettlement projects, mining,
REWRITE
logging).
(iii)
Integrate forest management solutions with policies on
environment, ayriculture, transportation, energy poverty and
landlessness.
(iv)
Strengthen, support and extend the Tropical Forestry Action Plan
(TFAP) process to all countries with tropical forests, and expand
support for immediate implementation of completed plans.
(v)
Strengthen the role of the International Tropical Timber
Organization (ITTO) in supporting the sustainable utilization of
forest resources.
(vi)
Strengthen the role of development banks, IMF, FAU, UNEP, and
other multilateral and bilateral organizations in helping
developing countries achieve conservation and sustainable
development of forests by:
a) Requiring analyses of climate change implications, potential
FIX
greenhouse gas emissions, and response programmes in their review of
project proposals involving forests;
IF
b) Expanding greatly aid and investment flows to the forest sector as
well as for the production of energy from biomass.
KEPT
c) Expanding debt relief via renegotiation of debt, and debt for
conservation exchanges; and
d) Linking structural adjustment measures to alleviation of climatic
impacts and reduction of gas emissions.
34 (continues)
Comments:
Para 34, line 2: after "importance" add "to the stability of
the global climate"
Para 34, lines 2-4: delete "for global climatic stability,
and other trace gases."
Para 34, lines 2-4: delete "for global climatic stability,
and other trace gases."
Para 34, para 3: delete in its entirety because it goes beyond
the Noordwijk Declaration
Para 34, para 4, delete subpara (vi) (b-d)
New Version:
31. We recognize that the conservation of the world's forests
is of crucial importance to the stability of the global
climate. In particular we note the significance of forest
destruction to global climate change both in contributing to
the increase in emissions of carbon-dioxide, methane and other
trace gases, and in reduction of natural absorption of carbon
dioxide.
We stress the need to reduce the rate of deforestation and to
enhance the potential of the world's forests as a sink for
greenhouse gases, through vigorous programs of reforestation
and afforestation.
We call on all countries to:
(i)
adopt clear objectives for the conservation,
reforestation and sustainable management of forests in national
development plans;
(ii) amend national policies to minimize forest loss and
disturbance by public and private development projects (e.g.
roads, dams, resettlement projects, mining, logging);
(iii) integrate forest management solutions with policies on
environment, agriculture, transportation, energy, poverty and
landlessness;
(iv) strengthen, support and extend the tropical forestry
action plan (tfap) process to all countries with tropical
forests, and expand support for immediate implementation of
completed plans;
(v)
strengthen the role of the international tropical timber
organization (ITTO) in supporting the sustainable utilization
of forest resources;
(vi) strengthen the role of development banks, IMF, FAO,
UNEP, and multilateral and bilateral organizations in helping
developing countries achieve conservation and sustainable
development of forests by requiring analyses of climate change
implications, potential greenhouse gas emissions, and response
programmes in their review of project proposals involving
forests.
35.
Original:
35. We call finally for the development of a World Forest Conservation
Protocol or Convention covering temperate, boreal and tropical forests,
in the context of or in association with a Climate Convention which also
convention
addresses energy supply and use. The specific elements of such a
protocol or convention are a matter for international negotiations which
should begin at an early dato. These elements may include: fundamental
the b
research, tropical forest planning, measures to use, protect and
reforest, international trade, financial assistance and possible
national and international targets for conservation, reforestation and
afforestation.
Comments:
Para 35, line 7: before "tropical" add "temperate and"
Para 35: replace first four lines with:
We call finally for the development of a global forest
convention or agreement. The specific elements of such a
convention or agreement
New Version:
32. We call finally for the development of a global forest
convention or agreement. The specific elements of such a
convention or agreement are a matter for international
negotiations which should begin at an early date. These
elements may include: fundamental research, temperate and
tropical forest planning, measures to use, protect and
reforest, international trade, financial assistance and
possible national and international targets for conservation,
reforestation and afforestation.
(Desertification and drought)
36
36.
We recommend that regional and/or sub-regional studies on these subjec
be undertaken to cover the impacts of climate change in the following
Original:
fields:
(1)
Drought;
(11) Desertification;
(iii) Water resources and their evolution;
(iv)
Agriculture (positive and negative impacts);
(v)
Energy;
(vi)
Forests.
Those studies should lead Lo the development of scenarios and chort ,
Comments:
medium- and long-term measures for mitication of drought and stopping
and reversing desertification for the attention of oconomic and
political decision makers.
Para 36: expand list of items to include coastal resources,
human health, infrastructure, human settlements, fisheries and
biodiversity.
Para 36, para 1, line 2: positive and negative impacts
Para 36, para 1, line 3: replace "fields" with "areas"
Para 36, subpara (iii): delete "and their evolution"
Para 36, subpara (iv): delete "(positive and negative impacts)"
Para 36, subpara (v): replace with: "Energy supply and use;"
B
Para 36, para 2: replace with:
We recommend that all nations assess the potential impacts
of climate change on their resources and plan for
adaptation. Appropriate regional institutions should work
with member countries to assess and plan for regional
impacts of climate change. Industrialized countries should
provide technical assistance to developing countries to
conduct such assessments. These activities might be s
facilitated by the establishment, within an existing
institution, of an international clearinghouse on climate
change impacts and assessments.
New Version:
33. We recommend that regional and/or sub-regional studies be
undertaken to evaluate the positive and negative impacts of
climate change in the following areas:
(i)
drought;
(ii)
desertification;
(iii)
water resources;
(iv)
agricultural;
(v)
energy supply and use;
(vi)
forests;
(vii)
coastal resources;
(viii) human health;
(ix)
national infrastructure;
(x)
human settlements;
(xi)
fisheries; and
(xii) biodiversity.
We recommend that all nations assess the potential impacts of
climate change on their resources and plan for adaptation.
Appropriate regional institutions should work with member
countries to assess and plan for regional impacts of climate
change. Industrialized countries should provide technical
assistance to developing countries to conduct such
assessments. These activities might be facilitated by the
establishment, within an existing institution, of an
international clearinghouse on climate change impacts and
assessments.
51.
Original:
on a
III. GLOBAL CONVENTION
convention on
climate
37.
We welcome the resolutions of the Executive Council of the WMO and
change
Special Governing Council of UNEP authorising their Secretary General
and Executive Director to begin negotiations for a Climate Convention,
and associated Protocols. We call for such negotiations to begin
without delay. We endorse the WMO and UNEP Governing Bodies Decisions
in this respect. We urge all countries to join in these negotiations,
with the aim of completing negotiations to ensure adoption of a Climate
Convention by the time of the UN Conference on Environment and
Development in 1992;
MEX ADDITION OK
Comments:
Para 37, title should read "Framework Convention on Climate
TRACK
Change"
Para 37, line 3: replace "begin negotiations for a" with
WMO
establish an ad hoc group of government representatives to
prepare for negotiations for a Framework
RESOL.
Para 37, line 4: delete "and associated protocols"
Para 37, line 5: replace "without delay" with "no later than
February 1991"
New Version:
Framework Convention on Climate Change
WMO 34. authorizing and We welcome special their session the Secretary resolutions of the general governing of the and executive executive eouncil of council director UNEP of with the respect to
establish an ad hoe group of representätives to
prepare for negotiations on a framework convention on climate
change. We call for such negotiations to begin not later than
February 1991. We urge all countries to join in these
negotiations, with the aim of completing negotiations to ensure
adoption of a framework convention by the time of the UN
conference on environment and development in 1992.
38
Original:
38.
We recommend that such negotiations take account of the possible
elements compiled by the IPCC, and that the Climate Convention be framed
in cuch a way AR to gain the support of the largest possible number of
countries.
KEEPASIS
Comments:
Para 38: change "the Climate" to read "the Framework Climate"
Para 38, line 1: replace "take account of" with "consider"
New Version:
35. We recommend that such negotiations consider the possible
elements compiled by the ipcc, and that the framework
1
convention be framed in such a way as to gain the support of
the largest possible number of states. We recommend that the
framework convention contain, at a minimum, general principles
3
and obligations, and that it advocate a comprehensive approach
that includes sources and sinks of all greenhouse gases.
COMPREH. DOBNT
COR 1 IF
GET IN ELSEWHERE
39
session
IT.
Original:
39.
We welcome the offer of the Covernment of the United States to host the
first negotiating meeting of 6 Working Group on the elaboration of a
Climato Convention. We also welcome the possible Invitation or italy
host the first meeting of the Working Group for the elaboration of an
Energy Protocol. We urge that these two meetings bc convened at the
beginning of 1991.
I
HASN'T HAPPENES
No SIMULTAN.
2
Comments:
PROTOCOLS. UNCONNECTED
3
2
Para 39, lines 2-3: revise first sentence to read:
We welcome the offer of the Government of the United States
to host the first negotiating session on the Framework
Convention in February 1991.
Para 39, lines 3-6: delete the last two sentences.
New Version:
36. We welcome the offer of the government of the United
States to host the first negotiating session on the framework
convention in February 1991.
40.
Original:
40.
We recommend further that the Climate Convention and associated
Protocols contain specific obligations and address in particular:
ITEMS
(1)
the enhancement of research and systematic observation of clima
(ii)
the control of greenhouse gas emissions
NEGOT. FOR
(111) the adaptation to the adverse effects of climate change in
coastal areas
(1v)
The needs of developing countries for financial assistance in
their development efforts and transfer of technology
(v)
appropriate institutional and decision-making procedures.
Comments:
COVERED BY 438
Para 40: replace with language from RSWG Policymakers Summary:
We recommend that the framework convention contain, at a
minimum, general principles and obligations, and that it
take a comprehensive approach addressing all sources and
sinks of greenhouse gases.
Combined with para 35 in new versioni
New Version:
35. We recommend that such negotiations consider the possible
elements compiled by the IPCC, and that the framework
convention be framed in such a way as to gain the support of
the largest possible number of states. We recommend that the
framework convention contain, at a minimum, general principles
and obligations, and that it advocate a comprehensive approach 1
PUT
that includes sources and sinks of all greenhouse gases.
SOMEWHERE
ELSE
41:
Original:
IV. INFORMATION AND PUBLIC AMARENESS
41, We believe that a well informed public is essential for addressing an
coping with as complex an issue as climate change and urge countries
(1) encourage wide participation of all sectors of the population i
addrossing olimate change issues and developing appropriate late
responses
(11) provide guidance for positive practices to limit/or adapt to
climate change
(111) incorporate in the curricula of their educational cystems
environmental education
(iv) establish national committees or clearing houses to collect,
develop and disseminate accurate information on climate change
issues.
Comments:
None
New Version:
Information and Public Awareness
37. We believe that well informed public is essential for
addressing and coping with as complex an issue as climate
change and urge countries to:
(i) encourage wide participation of all sectors of the
population in addressing climate change issues and developing
appropriate responses
(ii) provide guidance for positive practices to limit/or
adapt to climate change
(iii) incorporate in the curricula of their educational
systems environmental education
(iv) establish national committee or clearing houses to
collect, develop and disseminate accurate information on
climate change issues.
42.
Original:
V. INSTITUTIONAL MATTERS
42. We congratulate the IPCC for the outstanding achievement of producing
a very short time its first report on the state of the science of
climate change, the socio-economic impact and policy options. we
recognize that the IPCC structure can provide an invaluable mechanism
for periodic assessments, perhaps every five years, of the evolving
knowledge from research and impact studies. We urge that the IPCC
continue its analysis of risks of action and inaction, policy options
and economic aspects of alternative massures for limiting arcenhouse as
emissions, mitigating or adapting to climate change. We also urge that
studies
further report on these issues should be produced during 1991 to
support the then ongoing negotiations of a Climate Convention on Climat
Change.
Comments:
Para 42 and 43, place paragraphs in new section on IPCC.
Para 42, line 3: policy options to limit or adapt to climate
change
Para 42, line 4: delete "structure"
Para 42, line 5: delete "perhaps every five years"
Para 42, lines 7-8: delete "risks of action and inaction"
Para 42, lines 8-9: replace "and economic aspects adapting
to climate change." with "especially the economic aspects of
alternative measures for limiting greenhouse gas emissions of
adapting to climate change."
Para 42, line 10: delete "during 1991"
Para 42, lines 11: delete "then"
Para 42, last sentence: framework convention
New Version:
12. We congratulate the IPCC for the outstanding achievement
of producing its First Assessment Report on the state of the
science of climate change, the socio-economic impacts and
policy options to limit or adapt to climate change. We
recognize that the IPCC can provide an invaluable mechanism for
periodic assessments of the evolving knowledge from research
and impact studies. We urge that the IPCC can provide an
invaluable mechanisms for periodic assessments of the evolving
knowledge from research and impact studies. We urge that the
IPCC continue its analysis of policy options, especially the
economic aspects of alternative measures for limiting
greenhouse gas emissions or adapting to climate change. We
also urge that further reports on these issues be produced to
support the ongoing negotiations of a Framework Climate
Convention on Climate Change.
43
Original:
43. We further express our appreciation to WMO and UNEP for initiating the
IPCC and providing an efficient Secretariat. We urge that this
arrangement be continued and that countries continue to provide
resources to support the Secretariat and participation of developing
countries in the work of IPCC.
Comments:
Para 43, line 2: after "efficient" add "and effective"
Para 43, line 3: replace "that countries continue in the
work of the IPCC." with "expanded to provide secretariat
support for negotiations on a framework convention on climate
change"
New Version:
13. We further express our appreciation to WMO and UNEP for
initiating the IPCC and providing for an efficient and
effective Secretariat. We urge that this arrangement be
continued and expanded to provide secretariat support for the
negotiations on a framework convention on climate change.
09/11/90 17:57
6475947 STATE DEPT OES/E
03
FUNDING FOR FIRST NEGOTIATING SESSION
o
Estimated costs for the first negotiating session run
between $300 to $500 thousand, depending on where the
conference takes place, how long it lasts, and the number of
participants.
O
OES has requested $318,000 in FY 91 funds to cover the
cost of a modest conference in Washington. D.C. with full U.N.
standard translation and interpretation services. (This
includes interpretation in five or six languages, plus full
on-site translation of conference documents.) Providing we
get the full amount and providing the first negotiating session
runs no longer than one week, we should be able to fund the
session with minimal solicitation of other agencies.
O
If OES receives significantly less than what we have
requested to cover conference costs, we shall have to pass the
hat to other agencies in addition to collecting from them about
$200,000 to cover FY 91 IPCC secretariat and developing country
travel expenses.
o
If sequestration takes place and/or departmental
budgets are severely reduced, agencies funds may not be
available to cover costs of conference and special
discretionary funds may be needed.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
WASHINGTON
with
MEMBER rsuy OF THE COUNCIL
June 5, 1990
MEMORANDUM FOR STEPHEN DANZANSKY
FROM:
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE RA
SUBJECT:
RSWG
It is my understanding that Fred Bernthal stated last night
at the RSWG meeting in Geneva (to the Japanese, at least) that
the U.S. had policies in force or in prospect that would result
in a 25 percent reduction (from a "business as usual" baseline)
in a comprehensive index of greenhouse emissions by 2000. (The
Japanese say he said this about CO₂ emissions, but this seems
less likely.) This, he stated, would result in approximate
stabilization.
I am of course aware of the exercise that Boyden has led
that has developed figures that would support an assertion of
this sort. But I am unaware that anybody authorized Bernthal to
release them in this fashion. I have an urgent request from
Michael for information on this matter and would appreciate
learning whether Bernthal's statement was authorized and, if so,
by whom.
12
MEMORANDUM
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
M
June 1, 1990
TO:
STEVE DANZANSKY
FROM:
DICK SCHMALENSEE
with
Chary
SUBJECT: Global Change Research
I have finally managed to touch base with Corell, and I
think we can manage the substance of U.S. participation in these
Dutch/German meetings on research on the economics of global
change, as long as my assumption that nobody else in the
government cares much is correct.
But I still need your help badly. We need to identify
Japanese and Canadian players for this game soon, since the Bonn
meetings are in early July. I am completely in your hands as
regards Japan, since my efforts at and immediately after the
White House Conference have produced nothing. I badly need
advice on protocol as regards Canada: which ministry should be
contacted at what level by whom?
Help!
MEMORANDUM
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Wnh,
May 31, 1990
show. Clink
MEMORANDUM FOR DR. MENDEN (fax: 0049-228-59-3601)
FROM:
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE (fax: 001-202-395-6947)
Chry
SUBJECT:
Economics Research on Global Change/
Temporary Steering Committee
I have received Dr. Ziller's fax of May 22, I have talked
briefly with Dr. Corell, and I have seen your fax to him of May
29. After Dr. Correl's return to the U.S., he and I plan to
review this whole matter with others in the U.S. government early
next week, after which I will be able to send you a full response
to the May 22 fax.
But you should know now that I share his positive reaction
to your efforts and to the July and September meetings that you
and the Dutch propose. My only regret is that I will be in Japan
the first week of July and so will be unable personally to come
to Bonn.
CC: Dr. R. Corell
Dr. P.A.J. Tindemans (fax: 0031-79-512-651)
bec: Chris Dawnon (State)
Stone Dozants