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Polling (2 of 3) 1991 [2]
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Polling (2 of 3) 1991 [2]
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Records of the White House Office of the Chief of Staff to the President (George H. W. Bush Administration)
John Sununu Issues Files
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Originally Processed With FOIA(s):
FOIA Number:
1998-0004-F[2]; 1999-0098-F; 1999-0163-F
S
FOIA
MARKER
This is not a textual record. This is used as an
administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential
Library Staff.
Record Group/Collection:
George H.W. Bush Presidential Records
Collection/Office of Origin: Chief of Staff, White House Office of
Series:
Sununu, John, Files
Subseries:
Issues Files
OA/ID Number:
29169
Folder ID Number:
29169-002
Folder Title:
Polling (2 of 3) 1991 [2]
Stack:
Row:
Section:
Shelf:
Position:
G
15
25
3
7
Extended Page
1.1
NJ
Television stations, newspapers survey 835 people throughout state
By
THE
ASSOCIATED
PRESS
7/2/91
recognize the name of four possible
cluded 416 men and 419 women By
Democratic contenders: Virginia
race, there were 575 whites, 258
COLUMBUS - President George
Cov. Douglas Wilder, 70 percent;
blacks and two listed as other. Among
Bush would definitely find Mississippi
Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin, 75 percent;
the respondents, 553 said they were
friendly territory should the presiden-
Massachusetts Sen. Paul Tsongas
likely to vote in the Democratic pri-
tial election be held today, a recent
(the only declared Democratic candi-
mary and 211 indicated they would
survey shows.
date), 74 percent; and Nebraska Sen.
vote in the Republican primary.
The survey, commissioned by five
Bob Kerrey. 71 percent.
Bush scored higher among whites
newspapers and three television sta-
Even Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton
than blacks. Forty-nine percent of the
tions in Mississippi and one station in
was unknown to 53 percent of the
whites polled gave Bush an excellent
Memphis, Tenn., indicated Bush
respondents. The most recognizable
rating, compared to 18 percent of the
could easily carry this Deep South
name among the list of 12 possible
blacks. Eleven percent of the black
state in 1992, regardless of who his
Democratic nominees was Jackson,
respondents gave the president a
Democratic opponent is.
known to all but 2 percent of the
poor rating, compared to 1 percent
Conducted by Mason-Dixon Opin-
voters. But of the 98 percent who
among the whites.
ion Research of Columbia, Md., the
recognized him, 45 percent gave him
Slightly more women than men, 40
poll surveyed 835 people during the
an "unfavorable" rating.
percent to 38 percent, gave the presi-
period June 20-23 and has a margin of
Statewide, 84 percent rate Bush's
dent an excellent rating.
error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.
performance as excellent or good.
Jackson, the most popular of the
In publishing one portion of the Ma-
Just 12 percent rate it fair and 4 per-
challengers statewide, and the choice
son-Dixon poll this past weekend, the
cent poor. In eastem Mississippi, 39
of 25 percent of those polled, drew
Columbus Commercial Dispatch Te-
percent of the bipartisan respondents
his appeal almost exclusively from
purted the survey found that in six
rated the president's work as excel-
blacks. Only 2 percent of the white
head-to-head matchups, Bush beat all
lent, 54 percent good, 5 percent fair
respondents said they would vote for
chailengers. His closest competition
and 2 percent poor.
Jackson.
came from Jesse Jackson, but Bush
In addition to Columbus, the poll
Conversely, none of the white can-
was still favored nearly three-to-one.
was commissioned by the television
didates appealed to more than 50 per-
Sixty-seven percent of those polled
stations and the Greenwood Com-
cent of the blacks questioned. Ten-
said they would vote for Rush, with
monwealth, the Natchez Democrat,
nessee Sen. AI Gore, with 49 percent
only 25 percent choosing Jackson.
the Clarksdale Press Register and the
of the black vote, was closest, fol-
The poll found that nearly three of
McComb Enterprise Journal.
kowed by New York Gov. Mario
every four voters surveyed failed to
The statewide pulling sample in.
Cuomo with 47 percent.
copies:
J. Austin
M. Matalin
N. Cummings
B. J. Cooper
Gov. Sununu
R. Kaufman
B. Kristol
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
07/25/91
to
Date:
FOR:
THE CHIEF OF STAFF
FROM: PHILLIP BRADY
Assistant to the President
and Staff Secretary
Information
Action
Let's Discuss
TEELEY & ASSOCIATES, INC.
B15 CONNECTICUT AVENUE, N.W.
SUITE 1100
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20006-4078
TEL: (202) 452-7055
TELEX: 248441
FAX: (202) 452-7074
July 24, 1991
BY MESSENGER
The Honorable George H.W. Bush
President of the United States
The White House
Washington, D.C. 20500
Dear Mr. President:
I know how busy you must be in terms of catching up from your
recent trip and preparing for the Moscow Summit. However, I want
to provide you with information that will be released this Sunday
concerning the views of 2000 Soviet citizens regarding economic
reform in the U.S.S.R.
This survey includes interviews with persons in Russia, The
Ukraine and Lithuania. The survey concerns itself with such issues
as socialism vs capitalism, privatization, profit, hard work and
entrepreneurship and other issues that relate specifically to
proposed economic changes in the U.S.S.R. It is my belief that
this report contains information not known to Mikhail Gorbachev.
You might want to spend ten or fifteen minutes going through
this as you fly to Moscow. It certainly will not, and should not,
change anyone's opinion concerning the need for economic reform in
the Soviet Union. I do believe, however, that it sheds light on
the difficulties of such reform.
The Honorable George H.W. Bush
July 24, 1991
Page Two
I hope that you find this to be of use in furthering your
understanding of the cultural and economic barriers now in place
in the U.S.S.R. I believe President Gorbachev would appreciate
your knowledge of these ingrained Soviet views.
Here's wishing you complete success at the Summit.
With best wishes,
Pite
Peter B. Teeley
PBT: mm
Enclosure (1)
Times Mirror
Center for
NEWS
The People &
The Press
1875 Eye Street. N.W.. Suite 1110
Washington D.C. 20006
202 293-3126
FOR RELEASE: SUNDAY, JULY 28, 1991, A.M.
POLL SUGGESTS SOVIETS NOT READY FOR FREE MARKET
Washington, D.C. -- According to preliminary results of a massive poll of attitudes
in the Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev will be dragging a reluctant citizenry behind
him when he tries to convince President George Bush of his intentions to move toward
a market economy when the two meet at the summit in Moscow July 30-31.
*Although pressure from conservative forces within the Soviet government and
Gorbachev's own communist upbringing may play a role in his lukewarm embrace of
new economic methods, the Soviet leader faces an immense hurdle in his own people.
The survey of 2,210 people in European Russia, the Ukraine, and Lithuania conducted
by the Times Mirror Center For The People & The Press in May 1991 shows a modest
majority of 54 percent in Russia and 53 percent in the Ukraine favoring efforts to
establish a free market economy. A solid 32 percent of Russians and 34% of
Ukrainians explicitly disapprove of the move.
*"When the Soviet people are asked to choose between various socialist and
capitalist alternatives for the future," says the Times Mirror report, "support for
capitalism is even less evident." Forty-six percent of Russians prefer a socialist
alternative while only 40 percent prefer capitalism. Of those who select capitalism,
only 17 percent pick an American style free market form, little more than the 10
percent choosing status-quo communism.
1
*"When questioned about the desirability of state control versus privatization in 13
areas," continued the report, "we found a clear preference for privatization in only one
area -- farming." An extraordinary 79 percent of Russians and 86 percent of
Ukrainians say they would like to see the state run heavy industry. Similar large
majorities favor state control of electricity, transportation, and the phone system.
During a focus group conversation in Kiev one person explained that "While we have
a dictatorship of jealousy, it's hard to have private property."
*Those polled are sharply divided on whether entrepreneurs should be encouraged.
In Russia 50 percent favor unlimited profits, slightly more feel the state should limit
profits (45%). In the Ukraine, the margin is similar with 49 percent favoring the
entrepreneurs and 45 percent opposing. Fourteen focus groups conducted by Times
Mirror in Russia, the Ukraine and Lithuania buttressed the polls findings. As a worker
in Volgograd admitted, "...the mentality of the society is such that if a man becomes
rich, it means he's a thief, a criminal."
*Soviet skepticism of the free market comes despite a near obsession with economic
problems and an acknowledgement that the current system has failed. More than
three of every four Russians and Ukrainians mentioned economics as the most
important problem facing the country. Even the highly nationalistic Lithuanians cited
the economy as their own greatest personal fear for the future more often than the
failure of the independence movement.
*The major hopeful sign for any efforts by Gorbachev to institute significant market
reforms is the support of change by the young and better educated. Among Russians
under 25 years of age, 7 in 10 favor a free market economy compared to less than 20
percent of those over 70. Six in ten of those with family incomes over 700 rubles a
month favor a market approach compared to slightly less than half of those with less
income. Men were also more likely to support economic change than women.
*This preliminary data on Soviet attitudes toward economic issues is a small part
of an 18 month study of public opinion in Western Europe, Eastern Europe, and the
Soviet Union. The total survey of 13,000 people was developed by the Times Mirror
Center For The People & The Press. It was designed to facilitate cross national
comparisons of results among European countries and between Europe and the United
States as Europe adapts to the end of the Cold War and the impending economic
integration of Western Europe.
2
*A full report on the comparative findings and conclusions of the study is scheduled
for Fall 1991.
###
Contact:
Donald S. Kellermann, Director
Andrew Kohut, Director of Surveys
Carol Bowman, Director of Research
Times Mirror Center For The People & The Press
(202) 293-3126
3
About The Survey
These are the first findings of an 18 month study of the state of public opinion in
Western Europe, Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union. The study was undertaken
to assess the basic beliefs, political values and opinions of the European population as
it experiences and adapts to the end of the Cold War and the economic integration
of Western Europe.
The study draws upon three sources of information about Europe in transition - a
series of interviews and briefings with European politicians, academic leaders and
journalists in 1990 and 1991 - 50 focus group sessions in Great Britain, France, Italy,
Spain, Germany, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland, Russia, the Ukraine, and
Lithuania conducted in the winter and spring of 1991 -. 13,000 personal interviews
conducted May 1991 in nine European nations and three Soviet Republics. The
samples were nationally representative of the adult populations in each of the Western
and Eastern European countries. The Soviet surveys were representative of the adult
populations in Lithuania, the Ukraine and the European portion of the Russian
Republic. The results of the survey may be modified in the final report to reflect
further statistical adjustments based upon the latest official Soviet population data.
For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error
attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 4 percentage points
for Russia, and plus or minus 6 percentage points for the Ukraine and Lithuania. The
personal interviews lasted 45 minutes to an hour and were fielded by leading survey
research organizations in Western Europe, former East Bloc countries, and in the
Soviet Union.
The questionnaire and analytical approach was developed by the Times Mirror
Center For The People & The Press. It was designed to facilitate cross-national
comparisons of results amongst European countries and between European and
American opinions. Many of the questions in the survey were based upon measures
developed by Times Mirror for its People, Press and Politics survey series.
A full report on the findings and conclusions of the study is scheduled for Fall 1991.
Times Mirror
Center for
NEWS
The People &
The Press
1875 Eye Street. N.W., Suite 1110
Washington. D.C. 20006
202 293-3126
FOR RELEASE: SUNDAY, JULY 28, 1991, A.M.
ATTITUDES THAT BEAR ON ECONOMIC REFORM IN THE U.S.S.R.
A Preliminary Report
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
Donald S. Kellermann, Director
Andrew Kohut, Director of Surveys
Carol Bowman, Research Director
Times Mirror Center for The People & The Press
202/293-3126
ATTITUDES THAT BEAR ON ECONOMIC REFORM IN THE U.S.S.R.
(A Preliminary Report)
Times Mirror public opinion research in the U.S.S.R. finds that support for a free
market economy in Russia and other Soviet Republics is modest at best and there is
little evidence in the research that the Russian public is ready, willing or able to easily
adapt to a free market economy.
Indeed, there are a number of indications in our polling that Russian beliefs about
egalitarianism, profitability and views on entrepreneurs are antithetical to a free
market.
At this time public support for a market economy may be being fueled more by a
desire for economic change and relief than by a significant understanding of, or
commitment to, free enterprise.
In that regard, it is clear that the dismal state of the economy dominates Soviet life
almost to the exclusion of other issues. The primacy of economic concerns is such that
in free response questions about national priorities and personal aspirations there is
little registration of concern about important matters attendant to the emergence of
democracy, the restructuring of the Soviet Union or the nationalities problems. The
economy, economic deprivation, and financial worries overwhelm all other aspects of
Soviet life.
More than three of every four Russians and Ukrainians mentioned economic
problems as the nation's most important concern. And nearly one in five Russians
cited the threat of starvation as the overriding issue in the U.S.S.R. Just 6%
mentioned the most frequently noted non-economic issue, solving political problems and
disputes.
Perhaps the most telling evidence of harrowing fear of economic disaster is
reflected in the Lithuanian survey results. Although the highly nationalistic Balts cite
independence as the most important problem facing the nation, when asked to name
their greatest worry about the future, the failure of the Independence movement was
the number two concern. The number one worry by far in the breakaway Republic is
that the economy won't improve.
The Times Mirror survey gauged the receptivity of the Soviet publics to a market
economy in three ways: 1) by asking direct questions about the kind of economy
wanted in the future; 2) by measuring people's willingness to accept specific economic
changes; and 3) by examining the values of the Russian people that bear on their
capacity to accept capitalism.
1
Direct Measures
The Russian and Ukrainian publics show far less approval of efforts to establish
a market economy than they do of their emerging multi-party democracy. A modest
54% majority of the Russians and 53% of Ukrainians approved of efforts to establish
a free market economy. In contrast, over six in ten approved of political pluralism in
both Soviet republics (60% in Russia and 72% in the Ukraine).
One indication of the role that the urgency of solving economic problems plays in
Russian opinion about the free market is that the vast majority of those who approve
of attempting a free market approach believes that the movement to a free market is
going too slowly. In other countries approval of a free market is not as closely linked
to impatience with its implementation.
When the Soviet people are asked to choose between various socialist and
capitalist alternatives for the future, support for capitalism is even less evident. In
Russia 46% pick a socialist alternative compared to 40% who select a form of
capitalism. Most prefer democratic socialism (36%), while a Scandinavian form of
capitalism is the second most popular individual scenario for the future (23%).
A very small minority chooses "status quo" communism for the future (10%) and
only slightly more pick a free market form of capitalism (17%). In the Ukraine the
balance tips more in the direction of some form of capitalism (49% to 37%), while in
Lithuania there is a clear mandate - 67% favor a capitalist alternative versus 12% a
socialist one.
Analysis of the survey reveals that general opinion about capitalism and attitudes
toward specific economic changes are highly correlated with the demographics of Soviet
life. Men, younger people and the better educated and more affluent people show
much more support for advancing along the road to a free market system than do their
counterparts in both Russian and the Ukraine.
In Russia 6 out of 10 men favor steps toward a free market economy compared to
40% of women. Among under 25's, seven in ten favor a free market economy
compared to less than 20% of Russians 70 years of age and older. In this classless
society, 6 out of 10 of those with family incomes of more than 700 rubles or more per
month approve of trying a market approach, compared to slightly less than half of
those earning fewer rubles.
Opinions about political pluralism show exactly the same demographic pattern.
Among Russian men, 7 in 10 approve of democratic reforms while slightly more than
half of the women feel that way. This may suggest that these patterns reflect the
capacity of different kinds of people in Russian society to accept change, as much as
feelings about the issues themselves.
2
Opinion about Specific Economic Changes
Public ambivalence about a free market economy is underscored by the equivocal
attitudes that Russians and Ukrainians have toward the concrete economic changes
required to transform the Soviet economy. When questioned about the desirability of
state control versus privatization, we found a clear preference for privatization in only
one out of 13 areas - farming.
By huge margins (79% and 86%) the Russian and Ukrainian publics say they would
like to see state-run enterprises for heavy industry.
For consumer manufacturing and retail shops, pluralities prefer the availability of
both private and state enterprises while overwhelming majorities (63% and upwards)
favor electricity, transportation, and the phone systems in state hands.
Majorities of Russians and Ukrainians also choose state control of newspapers,
radio and tv, schools, and health care. Farming is the one area where there is clear
majority support for privately run enterprises in both Russia and the Ukraine (75%).
Nonetheless, many Russians oppose allowing farmers to sell their land on the open
market. The controversial measure is favored by a narrow 47% to 42% margin in
Russia, by a comfortable 60% to 27% margin in the heavily agrarian Ukraine, and by
66% in Lithuania.
One of the most hopeful signs for economic reform in the survey is that majorities
in both Russia and the Ukraine favor letting prices increase as a way of making more
products available, yet there are many opposed to this step. In Russia the concept is
favored by a 59% to 31% majority, and in the Ukraine by a 51% to 37% majority.
Another encouraging note, is that by a two-to-one margin Russians and Ukrainians
say they are willing to accept some unemployment for the sake of modernizing the
economy. And almost all people in both surveys endorse the idea of borrowing to
start private businesses.
However, opinions about people who run cooperatives (the prevalent Soviet form
of free enterprise) is another matter. Our fuller reporting will show that most Russians
and Ukrainians think that people who run cooperatives are having a bad effect on the way
things are going in the country. And the Soviet publics divide sharply on whether
entrepreneurs should be allowed to make as much profit as they can. In Russia 50%
favor unlimited profits, and slightly fewer (45%) feel the state should limit profits. In
the Ukraine the margin is about as close (49% vs. 45%).
Basic Beliefs and Values
Opinions about capitalism generally and economic reforms reflect more deep seated
values and beliefs. Deep-rooted feelings about egalitarianism and individualism. are
especially relevant.
3
A plurality of Russians (46%) and Ukrainians (44%) think that people who get
ahead do so at the expense of other people. A distinct minority see success as a
consequence of some people having more ability or ambition than others (37%).
Lithuanians are more apt to see success as a result of ambition and energy (50%) than
as a consequence of people exploiting other people (39%).
On the other hand, many Russians and Ukrainians have difficulty with the concept
of personal accountability for failure. Forty-five percent of people interviewed in
Russia think that most people who fail in life do so because of personal shortcomings,
but almost as many (39%) think that personal failure is society's fault, not the
individual's shortcomings. Ukrainians were even more inclined to blame society for
failure (48%) than to blame the individual (36%).
Lithuanians see things differently. A clear 58% to 28% margin attribute personal
failure to the individual rather than society. Lithuanians are much closer to Western
values than Russians or Ukrainians on many economic dimensions.
This certainly comes through in the comparative results of one standard Times
Mirror opinion measure. A third of Americans and Lithuanians agree with the
statement that "hard work doesn't guarantee success". In Russia, and the Ukraine that
percentage is 60+%. (The Times Mirror full release on this study will contrast the
basic beliefs of Russians, Ukrainians, and Lithuanians on 100 questions asked in the
U.S., Western, Central, and Eastern Europe).
On the matter of work, surprisingly large majorities of each public questioned said
they would prefer to work on an incentive system that would allow them to earn more
if they accomplished a lot, but would limit their pay if they were not productive. In
Lithuania 86% felt this way, in the Ukraine 79% and in Russia 65%.
The gender, age and socioeconomic patterns observed about capitalism are equally
evident in the values of the people we interviewed in these Soviet republics. In Russia,
clear pluralities of men, younger people and the more affluent saw an individual's
failure as society's fault. Among women, older people and among poorer and less
well-educated people society was blamed as often or more often. The same pattern
is evident at least to some degree in almost all of the measures noted above.
The consequences of the economic situation on the mood of the people is
extraordinary. This survey dramatically reveals how low the national spirit has sunk
and how little optimism there is that things will improve in the near term.
The Russian and Ukrainian publics surveyed recorded some of the lowest "well-
being" ratings for themselves and their country that we have ever observed. No fewer
than 89% of the Russians polled rated the present state of their country below "5" on
a ten point scale and almost everyone we interviewed felt the country was in worse
shape than it was five years ago. The last comparable measure in the U.S. by the
Times Mirror Center For The People & The Press found 20% of Americans rating the
4
state of the nation poorly and 27% feeling the country had lost ground recently
(February 1989).
People rate their own lives almost as poorly as they rate the state of the nation.
Just 2% rated their present ability to achieve their life's goals highly, 32% rated their
situation as average and 64% poor. The comparable American ratings were 31%
high, 55% average and 13% poor.
A majority of Russians (57%) judge their present life less satisfying than their life
five years ago and only 40% of Russians expect their life to be better five years from
now compared to 23% who think things will get even worse.
Ukrainians express equally negative assessments of their lives and of the condition
of their country but are a little more optimistic about the future than are Russians.
Lithuanian assessments are sharply different. First, they tend to view their lives
somewhat more positively than either Russians or Ukrainians - most (51%) judge their
progress toward life's goals as "average" but more significantly, a 51% majority of
Lithuanians expect to make progress in their life over the next five years. These Baltic
respondents were even more optimistic about the future of their country - 75% expect
Lithuania to be better off five years from now than it is today.
5
SOVIET SURVEY METHODOLOGY
I. Interviewing, Sample Design and Statistical Adjustments
Face-to-face personal interviews with representative samples of the adult public
were conducted simultaneously in three republics of the U.S.S.R. - the European part
of Russia, the Ukraine and Lithuania. The Russian and Ukrainian surveys were
conducted under the auspices of the Institute of Sociology of the USSR, Academy of
Sciences. The Lithuanian survey was conducted by the Sociological Laboratory of
Vilnius University.
The Russian and Ukrainian Survey
As this survey was part of a comparative European study the Russian sample was
limited to the European part of the Republic. Although the European part of the
RSFSR is only one third of the whole territory of the Russian Republic (the latter
being 17,075,400 square km or 6,592,849 square miles), approximately two-thirds of the
population of the Russian Republic live in the European part of Russia, which
embraces the territory from the Baltic to the Urals. The survey is projectible to the
70 million adults aged 18 and older living in this part of the Russian Republic.
In the Ukraine, the survey covered the whole republic, and is projectible to 38
million adults aged 18 & older.
In RSFSR, 1,123 interviews were conducted in the following regions (oblasts) -
Moscow (378), Leningrad (215), Samara (75), Volgograd (133), Kirov (70), Vladimir
(39), Pskov (60), Severo-Osetinskaja (78) and Karelia (52), both autonomous republics.
In each region, different types of cities, towns and villages were covered; a) a city with
the population one million and over, usually the capital city of a region [oblast or
autonomous republic]; b) a city with a population of 1,000,000 - 500,000; c) a city with
a population of 500,000 to 100,000; d) a city with a population of less than 100,000;
(e) a village.
The regions of Moscow and Leningrad were deliberately chosen and oversampled
for special analysis, as they represent the parts of RSFSR where the move toward
political and economic change is more noticeable. Other oblasts, and also cities and
towns in each oblast were randomly selected. Villages were usually chosen because of
their vicinity to medium-sized and small towns in oblasts.
Districts in cities and towns were chosen at random (8 in Moscow, 6 in Donetsk,
5 in Leningrad, 5 in Kiev, 4 in Lugansk, 4 in Volgograd, 3 in Samara, 3 in Kirov, 3 in
Gouse-Kchrustanij, 3 in Pskov, 3 in Petrozavodsk, 3 in Vladikavkas and 3 in each of
the smaller cities. In each district, the addresses and names were selected at random
out of election lists and no fewer than three election stations were taken.
6
The interviewers had the lists of randomly selected respondents with the name,
address and year of birth of each respondent given (the age limit on this survey was
80 years). They were also given an additional list which is comprised of additional
names which were to be used in case of refusals or long absences of respondents. In
case of the absence of a respondent, an interviewer was supposed to come back twice
more, and then if a respondent was still unavailable, the interviewer moved on to the
next name on the additional list.
In small towns and villages with a small number of interviews, the random route
procedure was used to select a household and, of the members of that household, the
interviewer first applied to a younger man in the family, and in case of his absence,
an older woman in the family.
The demographic parameters were checked by the field managers according to the
quota of distribution of demographic characteristics - gender, age, urban/rural type of
population.
Interviews were conducted in 99 sampling points in the period between April 15,
1991 and May 5, 1991. The interviews were conducted on weekdays between 5:00 and
10:00 p.m. and on weekends between 10:00 a.m. and 10:00 p.m.
In the Ukraine, the sample of 586 people covered 4 major parts:
1. Industrial and mining, which was represented by two big oblasts - Lugansk
(151) and Donetsk (30);
2. Central part - Kiev (122), Kirovograd (49), Tchernigov (49) oblasts;
3. South - Odessa (29) and Nikolajev (46);
4. Western Ukraine - Carpathian oblasts (53), Lvov (72) oblasts.
Interviews were conducted in 64 sampling points in the period between April 15,
1991 and May 5, 1991.
For the survey, 99 local interviewers were employed in the Russian Republic and
59 interviewers in the Ukraine. There were two general managers of the fieldwork,
one for RSFSR and one for the Ukraine, and also managers for each oblasts. The
fieldwork in Moscow, Volgograd, Osetija and Vladimir oblasts (Gouse-Kchrustanij) was
supervised by the Moscow team [ROMIR and Institute of Sociology representatives]).
Fieldwork in Leningrad, Pskov and Karelija regions was supervised by the Leningrad
team. Fieldwork in Samara and Kirov was supervised by the local managers.
Fieldwork in the Ukraine was supervised by the Lugansk University team.
Training of the fieldwork managers was conducted by the Institute of Sociology on
April 9, 1991 by Soviet project leader, Dr. Elena Bashkirova. Training of the
interviewers for Moscow and Vladimir oblasts was conducted in Moscow during the
week of April 9 - 12, 1991 by ROMIR and the Institute of Sociology. Training of
interviewers for Leningrad, Karelija and Pskov region was conducted in Leningrad and
7
training of interviewers for Volgograd, Samara, Kirov and Osetija was conducted in
hese cities between April 10 - 12, 1991.
Training of fieldwork managers for the Ukraine was conducted on April 11, 1991
in Kiev by Dr. S. Milogolov, and training of the interviewers was carried out in the
local places on April 12 - 15, 1991.
The interviewers who conducted interviews were mainly professionals who were
experienced in face-to-face interviews and already used by the Institute of Sociology
and ROMIR Company - researchers for the Institute of Sociology, Moscow, Leningrad,
Kirov, Lugansk, Kiev and Vladikavkas Universities and part-time interviewers working
for ROMIR (Moscow) and SOCIO (Samara).
The field managers controlled the interviewers' work by visiting randomly at least
10% of the respondents (in larger cities - such as Moscow, Leningrad, Volgograd and
Samara - 5% of interviews were checked by telephone). Biases in samples were
controlled by the field manager according to quota distribution of main socio-
demographic parameters: gender, age and rural/urban type of population.
The questionnaires collected and checked by the local field managers were then
brought to Moscow to the Institute of Sociology, where both sets of questionnaires
were coded (Ukrainian questionnaires were coded by people whose native tongue is
Ukrainian). The questionnaire was comprised of 15 open-ended questions, 9 of which
were pre-coded (nationality, occupation of respondent, lists of countries, soviet
republics, occupation preferences for their children); for 6 questions, code-books were
done on the basis of 300 questionnaires in RSFSR and 150 questionnaires in the
Ukraine. For two questions (What are your hopes for the future and what do you
need to be happy?) a list of codes for other countries was used as a starting point
which served quite well and then they were supplemented by a few other codes
marked specifically as Russian or Ukrainian.
The open-ended questions were coded, the data punched and data filed in ASCII
format and then sent to the U.S.
The general supervision of the survey conducted in the Russian Republic and the
Ukraine was carried out by Dr. Elena Bashkirova, a head of department of the
Institute of Sociology and the Director of ROMIR Company, which is an independent
research company for Russian public opinion and market research.
Russian survey results were statistically adjusted to take into account the
oversampling of the Moscow and Leningrad regions (600 interviews). The 500
interviews obtained in the 40 primary sampling units within seven other oblasts
(regions) were statistically weighted to represent 77% of the total sample. Survey
results from Russia and the Ukraine were compared to official statistics on age, sex,
education and degree of urbanization. Subsequently, it was deemed necessary only to
statistically weight the results of the Russian and Ukrainian surveys to account for an
8
over-representation of well-educated people (not unlike the level of over-
representation found in American surveys).
The Lithuanian Survey
The survey is based on a republic wide personal interview survey that embraced the
adult population, aged 16 years and older, in all five ethnic regions of Lithuania.
Given the degree to which ethnicity is an important factor differentiating the
opinions of inhabitants of the Republic, non-Lithuanians, Russians and Poles were
oversampled.
The field interviewing was carried out in 50 primary sampling units by trained
interviewers from the Sociological Laboratory of Vilnius University. Interviews were
conducted in Lithuanian and Russian languages. Households were drawn on a
"random route basis". One interview was conducted per household and age and sex
quotas were used to select respondents within the household.
The sample of primary sampling units was drawn at random based on the latest
Lithuanian Census data on sex, age, nationality, and urban-rural structure. Russians
and Poles were oversampled so as to have a sufficient number for analysis. A total
of 501 interviews were conducted, 332 with Lithuanians, 68 Russians, and 87 Poles.
The sample was statistically weighted to account for this ethnic disproportionality.
Given the completeness and recent nature of the census data, the survey data was
statistically fit to an age, sex, and education model after the ethnic weighting was
accomplished.
II. The Questionnaire
The initial draft of the questionnaire was developed by the Times Mirror Center For
The People & The Press. It was designed to facilitate cross-national comparisons of
results amongst European countries and between European and American opinions.
However, about a third of the questions in each survey are unique to each country, or
Soviet republic under study. Many of the comparative questions in the survey were
based upon measures developed by Times Mirror for its People, Press and Politics
survey series.
A draft of the questionnaire was submitted in October of 1990 to a committee of
European survey researchers consisting of the project leaders from each country
included in the survey. Comments and suggestions were solicited and a second draft
of the survey instrument was re-submitted to the European research group for
pretesting. Pre-tests were conducted in December of 1990.
9
Final questionnaires were prepared based on results of the pretest and with the
guidance and assistance of the European project leader group. The final questionnaire
was submitted to each country in English On April 1, 1991. Drafts were returned to
the Times Mirror Center For The People & The Press in local languages which were
translated back into English as a check for language comparability.
10
THE QUESTIONNAIRE
TIMES MIRROR CENTER FOR THE PEOPLE & THE PRESS
EAST/WEST POLL - MASTER TOPLINE
THE U.S.S.R.
Q.101
What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?
Russia
Ukraine
Solution of economic problems
41
40
Save the country from
economic crisis
19
20
Threat of starvation and
food problems
18
14
Solve political problems
6
10
Lower the prices
5
6
Political crisis
6
5
Lack of stability and order
5
5
Nationality problems
5
6
Ecology
**
5
Problems related to
political leaders
2
**
Cultural and moral problems
**
3
Transition to a market economy
3
3
Other
12
11
No reported
5
2
**Not among the ten most frequently cited answers in this country.
Q.101 What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?
Lithuania
Independence of Lithuania
52
General economic conditions
27
Low standard of living
9
Critics of authorities
4
Soviet army
3
Unemployment
2
Miscellaneous
8
DK
5
Q.106
All of us want certain things out of life. When you think about what really matters in your own life, what are
your wishes and hopes for the future, if you are to be happy?
Lith-
Russia
Ukraine
uania
General economic
conditions
19
18
11
Personal economic
situation
14
20
12
Family financially
stable
9
10
5
Job/work
situation
12
12
10
Own personal
happiness
11
10
8
Civil peace and
consensus in
the country
7
7
*
Family well-
being/Family life
8
7
12
Freedom
**
7
21
War/Peace
7
7
**
Good health
8
5
11
Better housing
opportunities
3
**
4
Children's
happiness/
Children's
future
**
6
8
*Less than .5%
**Not among the ten most frequently cited answers in this country.
CONTINUED
14
Q.106 CONTINUED
Lith-
Russia
Ukraine
uania
Confidence in
tomorrow
3
5
**
Equality and respect
for all people
3
**
3
Quality education
for self or
family
**
**
**
Security in
old age
**
**
**
Political stability
in the country
**
**
**
Less crime
**
**
**
Human rights/
respect of ethics
of people/freedom
**
**
**
Safe environment/
clean water/air
**
**
**
That nothing will
change
**
**
**
Less unemployment
(general)
**
**
**
Individual
freedoms
**
**
4
Faster and
successfully carried
out economic
reform
**
**
**
*Less than .5%
**Not among the ten most frequently cited answers in this country.
CONTINUED
Q.106 CONTINUED
Lith-
Russia
Ukraine
uania
To get rid of
poverty and become
a richer country
**
**
**
Preservation and
future development
of state social
policy
**
**
**
Other
25
28
8
None/No hopes
3
2
2
DK
10
2
9
*Less than .5%
**Not among the ten most frequently cited answers in this country.
Q.108
(HAND RESPONDENT CARD A) Here is a ladder representing the "ladder of life." Let's suppose the top of the ladder
represents the best possible life for you; and the bottom, the worst possible life for you. On which step of
the ladder do you feel you personally stand at the present time?
Lith-
Russia
Ukraine
uania
High
2
3
5
Average
32
28
52
Low
64
67
43
No Opinion
2
2
*
100
100
100
Q.109
On which step would you say you stood five years ago?
Lith-
Russia
Ukraine
uania
High
12
12
13
Average
42
52
42
Low
43
32
43
No Opinion
3
4
2
100
100
100
Feel Personal
Progress
21
16
38
Feel Personal
Decline
57
64
43
Neither
22
20
19
100
100
100
Q.110
Just as your best guess, on which step do you think you will stand in the future, say about five years from now?
Lith-
Russia
Ukraine
uania
High
10
12
24
Average
31
32
32
Low
39
40
23
No Opinion
20
16
21
100
100
100
Optimist
40
45
51
Pessimist
23
25
15
Neither
37
30
34
100
100
100
Q.111
Looking at the ladder again, suppose the top represents the best possible situation for our country; and the
bottom, the worst possible situation. Please tell me on which step of the ladder you think our country is at
the present time.
Lith-
Russia
Ukraine
uania
High
1
1
2
Average
7
8
24
Low
89
89
71
No Opinion
3
2
3
100
100
100
Q.112
On which step would you say our country was about five years ago?
Lith-
Russia
Ukraine
uania
High
9
8
12
Average
41
49
32
Low
46
40
50
No Opinion
4
3
6
100
100
100
Feel Progress
5
6
34
Feel Decline
85
84
52
Neither
10
10
14
100
100
100
18
Q.113
Just as your best guess, if things go pretty much as you now expect, where do you think our country will be on
the ladder, let us say, about five years from now?
Lith-
Russia
Ukraine
uania
High
7
8
26
Average
23
25
36
Low
50
49
26
No Opinion
20
18
12
100
100
100
Optimist
47
48
75
Pessimist
21
20
7
Neither
32
32
18
100
100
100
Q.203
Overall, do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of efforts to establish a multiparty
system in our country?
Lith-
Russia
Ukraine
uania
Total Approve
60
72
74
1
Strongly approve
21
21
30
2
Approve
39
51
45
Total Disapprove
26
18
17
3
Disapprove
19
15
11
4
Strongly disapprove
7
3
5
9
Dk
14
10
9
100
100
100
Q.204
Overall, do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of efforts to establish a free markel
economy in
?
Lith-
Russia
Ukraine
uania
Total Approve
54
53
76
1 Strongly approve
15
13
26
2 Approve
39
40
50
Total Disapprove
32
34
11
3 Disapprove
23
26
8
4 Strongly disapprove
9
8
3
9 Dk
14
13
13
100
100
100
Q.205
Do you think
is moving too quickly, too slowly or at about the right pace to a free market
economy?
Lith-
Russia
Ukraine
uania
1
Too quickly
19
25
20
2
Too slowly
48
39
37
3
About right
5
6
21
4
Disapprove of move
to free market
economy (VOL)
10
10
4
9 No opinion
18
20
18
100
100
100
20
Q.215
There are many views about the future development of society. (HAND RESPONDENT CARD D) Which of these views comes
closest to your point of view?
Russia
Ukraine Lithuania
Our Society in the Future
1 A socialist society
along the lines we
have had in the past
10
10
3
2 A more democratic
type of socialism
36
27
9
3 A modified form of
capitalism such as
found in Sweden
23
26
38
4 A free market form of
capitalism such as
found in the U.S.
or Germany
17
23
29
9 No opinion
14
14
21
100
100
100
21
Q.216a (HAND RESPONDENT CARD E) Of the items. listed on this card, which is your greatest worry about the future? And
which is second? (Q.216b in Lithuania)
Russia Ukraine Lithuania
a. We will not solve our
economic problems
Greatest worry
44
41
35
b. Political liberalization
will not continue
Greatest worry
3
4
6
C. There will be political
repression
Greatest worry
6
5
12
d. This republic will not
achieve its independence
from the Soviet Union
Greatest worry
3
12
20
e. There will be a further
breakdown in law and order
Greatest worry
12
11
8
f. There will be an all out
civil war
Greatest worry
28
26
18
Don't know - greatest worry
4
1
1
100
100
100
22
Q.217 Do you favor or oppose farmers being able to sell land that they own?
Russia Ukraine Lithuania
1
Favor
47
60
66
2
Oppose
42
27
27
9
Don't know
11
13
7
100
100
100
Q.218 Do you favor or oppose the right of the individual to own and sell property at the price he or she sets?
Russia Ukraine Lithuania
1
Favor
64
69
93
2
Oppose
28
20
5
9
Don't know
8
11
2
100
100
100
23
Q.226 As I read from a list tell me if you think this activity should be mainly run by the state or a cooperative, or
mainly run privately.
Lith-
Russia
Ukraine uania
a. Farming
State
6
5
9
Privately
75
74
56
Both (VOLUNTEERED)
15
19
33
No Opinion
4
2
2
100
100
100
b.
Health care
State
47
43
33
Privately
10
10
27
Both (VOLUNTEERED)
42
46
38
No Opinion
1
1
2
100
100
100
C. Banks
State
52
52
47
Privately
10
8
20
Both (VOLUNTEERED)
32
33
25
No Opinion
6
7
8
100
100
100
d.
Food stores
State
Privately
(NOT ASKED)
(NOT ASKED)
Both (VOLUNTEERED)
No Opinion
e.
Manufacture of
consumer goods
State
25
26
27
Privately
21
16
31
Both (VOLUNTEERED)
52
56
38
No Opinion
2
2
4
100
100
100
f. Shops
State
24
28
13
Privately
27
21
43
Both (VOLUNTEERED)
46
50
42
No Opinion
3
1
2
100
100
100
*Less than .5%
CONTINUED
Q.226 CONTINUED
Lith-
Russia Ukraine uania
g. Mining
State
Privately
(NOT ASKED)
(NOT ASKED)
Both (VOLUNTEERED)
No Opinion
h.
Restaurants
State
18
25
13
Privately
42
33
49
Both (VOLUNTEERED)
35
39
33
No Opinion
5
3
5
100
100
100
i.
Heavy industry
State
79
86
69
Privately
3
1
8
Both (VOLUNTEERED)
14
11
16
No Opinion
4
2
7
100
100
100
j.
The phone system
State
75
81
81
Privately
6
4
5
Both (VOLUNTEERED)
16
13
10
No Opinion
3
2
4
100
100
100
k.
Radio & television
State
54
53
59
Privately
6
3
11
Both (VOLUNTEERED)
36
43
27
No Opinion
4
1
3
100
100
100
1.
Trains & buses
State
63
71
67
Privately
6
3
7
Both (VOLUNTEERED)
28
24
24
No Opinion
3
2
2
100
100
100
m.
Newspapers
State
41
41
39
Privately
10
5
16
Both (VOLUNTEERED)
46
53
42
No Opinion
3
1
3
100
100
100
Q.226 CONTINUED
Russia
Ukraine
Lithuania
f.
Schools
State
51
53
56
Privately
8
7
9
Both (VOLUNTEERED)
38
37
32
No Opinion
3
3
3
100
100
100
m.
Electricity
State
88
93
88
Privately
2
*
1
Both (VOLUNTEERED)
7
5
6
No Opinion
3
2
5
100
100
100
Q.229 Some say that people who get ahead these days do so mainly at the expense of other people, others say that people
who get ahead these days do so because they have more ability and ambition than other people - which comes closer
to your point of view?
Russia
Ukraine
Lithuania
1
At other people's expense
46
44
39
2
Ability and ambition
37
37
50
9
No opinion
17
19
11
100
100
100
Q.230 Some say that most people who don't succeed in life fail because of society's failures. Others say that most
people who don't succeed do so because of their own individual failures. Which comes closer to your point of view?
Russia
Ukraine
Lithuania
1
Society's failures
39
48
28
2
Personal failures
45
36
58
9
No opinion
16
16
14
100
100
100
Q.233 Some people feel that prices should be allowed to rise so that products will be available, even if everyone can't
afford them. Others feel that prices should be kept low, even if it means that products are sometimes not
available? Which opinion generally comes closer to your point of view?
Lith-
Russia
Ukraine uania
1
Let prices increase
59
51
46
2
Keep prices low
31
37
43
9
Can't say
10
12
11
100
100
100
Q.234 Some people feel that there should be no unemployment in
even if it means that the
,
economy will not be improved and modernized. in the near future. Others feel some unemployment in
is acceptable, if that's what it takes to improve and modernize the economy. Generally, which position come closer
to your point of view?
Lith-
Russia
Ukraine uania
1
No unemployment
30
33
31
2
Accept some unemployment
63
58
62
9
Can't say
7
9
7
100
100
100
Q.235 Do you think that people who start privately owned businesses should be allowed to make as much profit as they can
or should the government limit how much profit they can make?
Lith-*
Russia* Ukraine* uania
1
As much as they can
50
49
51
2
Limit it
45
45
43
9
Can't say
5
6
6
100
100
100
Q.306 In general, how would you most prefer to be paid -- on a fixed salary basis, so that you always know how much
you will earn --- or mostly on an incentive basis which will allow you to earn more if you accomplish a lot,
but may result in less earnings if you don't accomplish enough?
Lith-
Russia Ukraine uania
1
Fixed
23
17
13
2
Incentive
65
79
86
9
Can't say
12
4
1
100
100
100
*Less than .5%
Poll Watch
A Review of Recent National Polling Data
From the Office of the GOP Conference Secretary
Bill Canfield, Staff Director
Bob Kasten, Secretary
Rick Dearborn, Deputy
202-224-3496
Contents
7/23/91
1) Bush Approval
(L.A. Times/Mirror Poll: 7/11-14/91)
2) Which Party is Better At
(Tarrance/Greenburg-Lake Poll: 7/17/91)
3) Family Income/Cost of Living
(Tarrance/Greenburg-Lake Poll: 7/17/91)
4) Thomas, the Court, and the Media
(CNN/Gallup Poll: 7/11-14/91; L.A. Times/Mirror Poll: 7/11-14/91)
5) Abortion & the Media
(CNN/Gallup Poll: 7/11-14/91; L.A. Times/Mirror Poll: 7/11-14/91)
6)
Which Network Covers the News Best ?
(L.A. Times/Mirror Poll: 7/11-14/91)
1
1)
BUSH APPROVAL
(L.A. Times/Mirror Poll: 1,212 adults surveyed from
7/11-14/91; margin of error +/- 3%; rel. 7/17)
BUSH APPROVAL
7/91
5/91
3/91
1/25/91
1/3/91
Approve
67%
77%
84%
79%
59%
Disapprove
23
16
10
14
24
DK
10
7
6
7
17
2)
WHICH PARTY IS BETTER AT
....
(Tarrance/Greenburg-Lake Poll: surveyed 1,000 voters
from 6/21-23/91; margin of error +/- 3.1%; rel. 7/17)
GOP
DEMS
BOTH
NEITHER
DK
Strong Nat'l
Defense
64%
15%
5%
3%
14%
Holding taxes down
50
24
3
12
11
Reducing Federal
Deficit
35
27
3
23
12
Handling Nation's
Economy
41
30
3
12
13
Improving
Education/Schools
25
43
6
11
14
Dealing w/ Crime
36
23
7
15
19
Keeping USA
prosperous
43
25
6
10
16
Protecting Soc.
Security
24
51
5
8
12
Resisting spec.
interests
21
48
4
13
15
Sharing your
Values
37
35
6
10
12
Fighting on
your side
34
34
6
11
15
Health Care
21
52
5
9
13
Environment
25
44
8
9
15
2
3)
FAMILY INCOME/COST OF LIVING
(Tarrance/Greenburg-Lake Poll: released 7/17/91)
Question: In the last year, has your Family Income
w/ Cost of Living ?
Gone up
10%
Fallen behind
51
Stayed even
36
)
Question: In a year, will you be Financially
Better off
23%
Worse off
18
About the same
53
4)
THOMAS, THE COURT, AND THE MEDIA
(CNN/Gallup Poll: surveyed 1,217 adults from 7/11-14;
margin of error +/- 4%; rel. 7/17)
Q:
Should the Senate Confirm Thomas ?
ALL
WHITE
BLACK
Yes
52%
52%
57%
No
17
16
18
DK
31
32
25
Q:
Thomas would be
Too liberal
7%
Too conservative
20
About right
46
DK
27
Q:
Is the Supreme Court
7/91
7/86
Too liberal
20%
14%
Too conservative
25
22
About right
39
42
DK
16
22
3
4)
THOMAS, THE COURT, AND THE MEDIA - CONTINUED
(L.A. Times/Mirror Poll: released 7/17)
Q:
Is the Court made up of
Conservatives
42%
Liberals
9
Evenly Divided
27
DK
22
Q:
Has the Media been Fair/Unfair to Thomas ?
Fair
58%
Unfair
20
DK
22
&
How So ? (Among "unfair")
Too Supportive
1%
Too Critical
18
DK
1
5)
ABORTION & THE MEDIA
(CNN/Gallup Poll: 7/17)
Question: "In 1973, the [SC] ruled that states cannot place
restrictions on a woman's right to an abortion during the
first three months
Would you like to see this ruling
overturned ?"
7/91
5/91
7/89
4/89
12/88
Yes
37%
42%
34%
39%
37%
No
56
52
58
51
58
DK
7
6
8
10
5
(L.A. Times/Mirror Poll: 7/17)
Question: Is the Media Fair/One-sided in Abortion reporting?
Fair
43%
Unfair
43
DK
14
Which side do they favor ? (Those who said one-sided)
Pro-life
19%
Pro-Choice
18
DK
6
4
6)
WHICH NETWORK COVERS THE NEWS THE BEST
?
(L.A. Times/Mirror Poll: 7/17)
7/91
5/91
3/91
1/25/91
1/3/91
9/90
ABC
18%
18%
12%
12%
18%
21%
CBS
14
13
8
7
17
14
NBC
13
14
10
7
13
13
CNN
41
41
58
61
30
27
DK
14
14
12
13
22
25
The Wirthlin Group
FAX TRANSMITTAL SHEET
Project #: 5545
Date: June 21, 1991
# of pages: 17 (including this sheet)
Deliver to: The Hon. John Sununu
THE CHIEF of STAFF
Firm:
The White House
has seen
FAX #: 202-456-2397
From: Richard B. Wirthlin
Firm:
The Wirthlin Group
(Please call to confirm
receipt of fax
1363 Beverly Road
McLean, Virginia 22101
Phone: (703) 556-0001
FAX #: (703) 556-9765 / (703) 893-3811
Comments:
THE WIRTHLIN GROUP
MEMORANDUM
TO:
The Honorable John Sununu
FROM:
Richard B. Wirthlin
SUBJECT:
Flash Results from the June Quorum
DATE:
June 21, 1991
Attached please find the results of our June Quorum. I hope you find it interesting. If you
have any questions or comments, please don't hesitate to call me at (703) 556-0001.
#5545-12 (15)
DATE
EMPLOYEE NUMBER
NOTE: This interview is the sole property of Decima Research. Any
attempt to duplicate or sell the contents constitutes an
illegal act and is subject to prosecution.
#5545-12 (2)
2.
What would you say is the single most important problem facing
the United States today, that is, the one that you, yourself,
are most concerned about?
POCKETBOOK/ECONOMY
SOCIAL
Big Business
*
Abortion (PRO-CHOICE)
Budget Negotiations/Lack of
Abortion (PRO-LIFE)
1%
Federal Budget
1%
Child Abuse/Kidnapping
*
Deficits/Federal Debt
5%
Child/Day Care
The Economy/Recession
13%
Crime
3%
Energy
*
Drugs
10%
Farm Problems
*
Education
4%
Government Spending
1%
Environment/Pollution
5%
High Gas Prices
E.R.A./Equal Rights
*
High Interest Rates
Health care costs
2%
High Taxes/Unfair Taxes
2%
Housing
Industry
Nuclear Plants/Nuclear
Inflation
2%
Disaster
*
Labor Unions
Poverty/Hunger/Homeless
11%
011 (Price/US dependency)
Racial Problems/Discrimina-
Unemployment
8%
tion
1%
Social Security/Aid to
FOREIGN POLICY/PEACE
Elderly
1%
Middle East Situation
Welfare (too little)
*
American involvement/troops
Welfare (too much)
*
in the Middle East
*
Chemical Weapons
*
OTHER
Iraq/Saddam Hussein
*
AIDS
2%
Kuwait
Congress
*
Middle East
*
Decline in Moral Values
4%
Saudi Arabia
*
Future/Youth
1%
Situation/War in the Persian
Government Corruption/Control
Gulf
1%
Bureaucracy/Leadership
2%
HUD problems
Arms Race/Nuclear Freeze
*
Illegal Aliens/Immigration
*
Central America
S & L Bailout
1%
Communism
George Bush
Eastern Europe
Other (SPECIFY):
Foreign Policy
*
International Trade/Imports
1%
National Defense
*
8%
South Africa
Soviet Relations
Don't Know (DO NOT READ)
3%
Terrorism
*
REFUSED (Do NOT READ)
1%
Too Much Foreign Aid
1%
War/World Peace
World Respect
No Problems
95
PERSONAL/CONFIDENTIAL
Project #5545-12
DECIMA RESEARCH
Time Started
1363 Beverly Road
Time Ended
McLean, Virginia 22101
June 17-19, 1991
Field Edit
Field Validation
Coding Edit
Hello, I'm
of Decima Research, a national
research firm. We're talking with people all around the nation
today, and would like to ask you a few questions (OPTIONAL) on a
confidential basis. (DO NOT PAUSE)
A.
Are you 18 years of age or older?
1
YES (SKIP TO Q.1)
2
NO (ASK Q.B)
IF "NO" IN Q.A, ASK:
B.
Is there anyone else in your household who is at least
18 years of age?
(IF "NO," THANK AND TERMINATE)
(IF "YES," ASK:) May I speak with that person, please?
(NOTE:) IF UNAVAILABLE, ARRANGE FOR CALLBACK.
(IF "YES," REPEAT Q.A WITH NEW PERSON)
1.
First, generally speaking, would you say that things in the
country are going in the right direction, or have they pretty
seriously gotten off on the wrong track?
RIGHT DIRECTION
39%
WRONG TRACK
56%
NO OPINION (DO NOT READ)
5%
REFUSED (DO NOT READ)
*
#5545-12 (3)
Turning now to something else
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling
his job as president?
(IF "APPROVE/DISAPPROVE", ASK:) Would that be STRONGLY
(approve/disapprove) or just SOMEWHAT (approve/disapprove)?
STRONGLY APPROVE
37%
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
37%
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
9%
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
11%
DON'T KNOW (DO NOT READ)
4%
REFUSED (DO NOT READ)
1%
#5545-12 (4)
Now, I'd like to ask you some questions about the environment
4.
Do you believe that economic growth should be sacrificed for
environmental quality, or should environmental quality be
sacrificed for economic growth?
SACRIFICE ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY
27%
SACRIFICE ECONOMIC GROWTH
56%
DON'T KNOW (DO NOT READ)
14%
REFUSED (DO NOT READ)
3%
5.
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement:
Protecting the environment is so important that requirements
and standards cannot be too high, and continuing environmental
improvements must be made regardless of cost.
(IF "AGREE/DISAGREE", ASK:) Would that be STRONGLY
(agree/disagree) or just SOMEWHAT (agree/disagree)?
STRONGLY AGREE
41%
SOMEWHAT AGREE
28%
SOMEWHAT DISAGREE
18%
STRONGLY DISAGREE
10%
DON'T KNOW (DO NOT READ)
2%
REFUSED (DO NOT READ)
1%
6.
Do you think that current environmental problems have actually
harmed you in any real sense or aren't you personally affected
that much by environmental problems?
ENVIRONMENT HAS HARMED ME
32%
NOT PERSONALLY AFFECTED BY THE ENVIRONMENT
66%
DON'T KNOW (DO NOT READ)
3%
REFUSED (DO NOT READ)
*
#5545-12 (5)
7.
Over the past few years, have you made any changes in your
day-to-day behavior because of your concerns about the
environment?
(IF "YES", THEN ASK:)
Would you say that you have made
(ROTATE TOP TO BOTTOM AND BOTTOM TO TOP)
YES, A LOT OF CHANGES
16%
YES, SOME CHANGES
30%
YES, ONLY A FEW CHANGES
20%
NO
34%
DON'T KNOW (DO NOT READ)
1%
REFUSED (DO NOT READ)
*
Still thinking about the environment, I am now going to read you a
list of changes some people have made in their day-to-day behavior
because of their concern about the environment. As I read each one,
please tell me whether you or someone in your household has made
that kind of change in your day-to-day behavior.
(ROTATE)
8.
Have you switched brands in order to purchase products that
are biodegradable, not harmful to the ozone layer, or made
from recycled products?
YES
77%
NO
23%
DON'T KNOW (DO NOT READ)
1%
REFUSED (DO NOT READ)
9.
Have you contributed money to an environmental action group?
YES
26%
NO
73%
DON'T KNOW (DO NOT READ)
*
REFUSED (DO NOT READ)
10.
Do you buy refills so that you can re-use containers?
YES
67%
NO
33%
DON'T KNOW (DO NOT READ)
*
REFUSED (DO NOT READ)
#5545-12 (6)
11.
Do you generally compare products and choose the brand that
has the least damaging effect on the environment?
YES
63%
NO
36%
DON'T KNOW (DO NOT READ)
2%
REFUSED (DO NOT READ)
12.
Have you avoided the purchase of products made by a company
that pollutes the environment?
YES
47%
NO
48%
DON'T KNOW (DO NOT READ)
5%
REFUSED (DO NOT READ)
*
13.
Do you sort and separate household garbage to be recycled?
YES
76%
NO
24%
DON'T KNOW (DO NOT READ)
*
REFUSED (DO NOT READ)
#5545-12 (7)
Now, I am going to read you some statements people have made on
various environmental issues. For each statement I read, please
tell me whether or not you agree or disagree with the statement.
The first/next statement is
(WAIT FOR RESPONSE, THEN ASK:)
Would that be strongly agree
somewhat agree
somewhat
disagree
or strongly disagree
?
(ROTATE)
14.
Some pollution in the environment is inevitable in order for
many industries to operate and provide jobs.
STRONGLY AGREE
24%
SOMEWHAT AGREE
51%
SOMEWHAT DISAGREE
12%
STRONGLY DISAGREE
11%
DON'T KNOW (DO NOT READ)
3%
REFUSED (DO NOT READ)
*
15.
If the pollution a company generates is well below the amount
allowed by federal clean air and clean water standards, this
assures there is no long term health risk.
STRONGLY AGREE
17%
SOMEWHAT AGREE
26%
SOMEWHAT DISAGREE
28%
STRONGLY DISAGREE
27%
DON'T KNOW (DO NOT READ)
2%
REFUSED (DO NOT READ)
16.
Industry has made tremendous progress by developing technology
to reduce potentially dangerous emissions, control pollution,
and comply with federal environmental standards.
STRONGLY AGREE
21%
SOMEWHAT AGREE
46%
SOMEWHAT DISAGREE
15%
STRONGLY DISAGREE
16%
DON'T KNOW (DO NOT READ)
3%
REFUSED (DO NOT READ)
*
#5545-12 (8)
17.
Do you think that there is too much, too little, or about the
right amount of government regulation and involvement in the
area of environmental protection?
TOO MUCH
11%
TOO LITTLE
63%
ABOUT THE RIGHT AMOUNT
23%
DON'T KNOW (DO NOT READ)
3%
REFUSED (DO NOT READ)
*
18.
Still talking about the environment
When you think of
specific companies that have been associated with causing
environmental problems, what company first comes to mind?
What other one? Another? (PROBE AND RECORD FIRST, SECOND AND
THIRD MENTIONS)
EXXON
23%
OIL COMPANIES - GENERAL
15%
CHEMICAL COMPANIES - GENERAL
11%
CAR COMPANIES - GENERAL
6%
DOW
5%
STEEL COMPANIES - GENERAL
5%
19.
Let's say there were three research scientists --
(ROTATE)
one from the federal government,
-- one from a major corporation and
-- one from an environmental group
Each of these scientists has a different point of view about
a major environmental issue. Which person would you be
inclined to believe most?
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT
21%
MAJOR CORPORATIONS
7%
ENVIRONMENTAL GROUPS
62%
NONE (DO NOT READ)
3%
DON'T KNOW (DO NOT READ)
7%
REFUSED (DO NOT READ)
1%
#5545-12 (9)
20.
Lately, there has been a lot of talk about threats to the
environment. In general do you think environmental groups are
exaggerating these threats in order to get the public to pay
attention to them, or do you think these threats to the
environment are as serious as the environmental groups say
they are?
THREATS EXAGGERATED
28%
THREATS SERIOUS
66%
THREATS ARE NOT SERIOUS
3%
DON'T KNOW (DO NOT READ)
3%
REFUSED (DO NOT READ)
*
21.
From what you have heard and read recently, do you believe
that racial minorities are given --
ROTATE RESPONSES
TOO MUCH CONSIDERATION
53%
TOO LITTLE CONSIDERATION
33%
JUST THE RIGHT AMOUNT OF CONSIDERATION
(DO NOT READ)
8%
DON'T KNOW (DO NOT READ)
5%
REFUSED (DO NOT READ)
1%
#5545-12 (10)
Now, I have just a few questions for statistical purposes only
...
22.
What is your age, please?
18 - 24
14%
25 - 29
12%
30 - 34
12%
35 - 39
13%
40 - 44
10%
45 - 49
7%
50 - 54
6%
55 59
6%
60 - 64
4%
65 - 69
7%
70 - 74
5%
75 AND OLDER
4%
REFUSED (DO NOT READ)
*
23.
What is the last grade of formal education you completed?
LESS THAN HIGH SCHOOL
22%
HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATE
34%
TECHNICAL/VOCATIONAL
5%
SOME COLLEGE
19%
COLLEGE GRADUATE
12%
POST-GRADUATE
8%
REFUSED (DO NOT READ)
*
#5545-12 (11)
24.
In politics today, do you usually think of yourself as a
Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what?
(IF REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT, ASK:) Would you call yourself a
STRONG (Republican/Democrat) or a NOT-SO-STRONG
(Republican/Democrat)?
(IF INDEPENDENT/OTHER/NO PREFERENCE, ASK:) Do you think of
yourself as closer to the Republican or to the Democratic
party?
STRONG REPUBLICAN
13%
NOT-SO-STRONG REPUBLICAN
17%
LEAN TO REPUBLICANS
11%
INDEPENDENT/NO PREFERENCE
19%
LEAN TO DEMOCRATS
8%
NOT-SO-STRONG DEMOCRAT
16%
STRONG DEMOCRAT
16%
#5545-12 (12)
25.
In politics today, do you generally consider yourself to be
(ROTATE)
liberal
or
conservative
on most issues?
(IF "LIBERAL/CONSERVATIVE", ASK:) Would you say that you are
VERY (liberal/conservative) or are you just SOMEWHAT
(liberal/conservative)?
VERY CONSERVATIVE
15%
SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE
40%
MODERATE (DO NOT READ)
4%
SOMEWHAT LIBERAL
28%
VERY LIBERAL
10%
NOT SURE/REFUSED (DO NOT READ)
4%
26.
What is your total annual family income? (READ CATEGORIES)
UNDER $5,000
4%
$5,000 BUT LESS THAN $10,000
7%
$10,000 BUT LESS THAN $15,000
9%
$15,000 BUT LESS THAN $20,000
10%
$20,000 BUT LESS THAN $25,000
9%
$25,000 BUT LESS THAN $30,000
8%
$30,000 BUT LESS THAN $35,000
8%
$35,000 BUT LESS THAN $40,000
6%
$40,000 BUT LESS THAN $50,000
9%
$50,000 BUT LESS THAN $60,000
8%
$60,000 OR MORE
12%
REFUSED (DO NOT READ)
10%
#5545-12 (13)
27.
What is your main ethnic or racial heritage?
(READ CATEGORIES -- ACCEPT ONE RESPONSE ONLY)
BLACK AMERICAN
11%
ENGLISH
22%
IRISH
15%
GERMAN
18%
FRENCH
4%
ITALIAN
6%
OTHER WESTERN EUROPEAN
5%
SCANDINAVIAN
4%
EASTERN EUROPEAN
3%
JEWISH
1%
HISPANIC AMERICAN
7%
ASIAN
*
AMERICAN INDIAN
1%
OTHER (DO NOT READ)
1%
REFUSED (DO NOT READ)
1%
28.
Are you married, separated, divorced, or single and never been
married?
MARRIED
60%
SEPARATED
3%
DIVORCED
9%
SINGLE, AND NEVER BEEN MARRIED
20%
WIDOWED
7%
DON'T KNOW/REFUSED (DO NOT READ)
*
29.
Sex (BY OBSERVATION)
MALE
48%
FEMALE
52%
#5545-12 (14)
30.
FIPS CODE
FOUR-POINT GEOCODE
Northeast
24%
Midwest
26%
South
32%
West
18%
EIGHT-POINT GEOCODE
New England
6%
Mid-Atlantic
19%
Great Lakes
20%
Farm Belt
6%
Mountain
4%
Pacific
14%
Outer South
22%
Deep South
10%
INTERVIEW #
What is your name, please?
IF REFUSAL, ASK:
May I have your first name in case my supervisor needs to verify
that this interview actually took place?
TELEPHONE (
)
AREA
NUMBER
I have re-read this completed questionnaire and certify that all
questions requiring answers have been appropriately filled in and
that this interview has been obtained from the individual
designated.
INTERVIEWER
AX to John Sununo
o.
form Wirthlin
ate Richard Pgs 7 Confirm: Y N
fax # 202-4510-2377
Ph: (703) 556-0001 Fax: (703) 893-3811
THE WIRTHLIN GROUP, McLean Virginia
The Wirthlin Group
MEMORANDUM
TO:
The Honorable John Sununu
THE CHIEF of STAFF
FROM:
Richard B. Wirthlin
has seen
SUBJECT: MAY QUORUM
DATE:
May 24, 1991
Attached please find the flash results of our National Quorum, fielded May 20-22, which
I thought you'd be interested in. If you have any questions or comments, please don't
hesitate to call me at (703) 556-0001.
FLASH TOPLINE RESULTS
Wirthlin Group National Quorum
May 20-22, 1991
N = 1,000 adults, 18+
Margin of error = + 3.1%
1.
First, generally speaking, would you say that things in the country are going in the right
direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?
RIGHT DIRECTION
38%
WRONG TRACK
53%
NO OPINION (DO NOT READ)
8%
REFUSED (DO NOT READ)
1%
Turning now to something else
3.
Do you approve or disapprove of the
STRONGLY APPROVE
43%
way George Bush is handling his job as
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
34%
president? (WAIT FOR RESPONSE,
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
9%
THEN ASK:) Would that be strongly
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
9%
(approve/disapprove) or just somewhat
DON'T KNOW (DO NOT READ)
5%
(approve/ disapprove)?
REFUSED (DO NOT READ)
*
4. How about the Congress? Do you approve or disapprove of the
way Congress is handling its job?
(IF "APPROVE/DISAPPROVE", ASK:) Would that be STRONGLY
(approve/disapprove) or just SOMEWHAT (approve/disapprove)?
STRONGLY APPROVE
8%
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
36%
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
23%
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
24%
DON'T KNOW (DO NOT READ)
9%
REFUSED (DO NOT READ)
1%
Now, I'd like you to consider for a moment the presidential elections that will be held next year.
5.
Which of all the Democratic potential candidates would you most prefer be nominated to
run against George Bush next year. (DO NOT READ RESPONSES)
LLOYD BENTSON
1%
JOSEPH BIDEN
*
BILL BRADELY
*
QUENTIN BURDICK
MARIO CUOMO (KU-o-mo)
3%
MICHAEL DUKAKIS
*
RICHARD GEPHARDT
1%
JOHN GLENN
*
ALBERT GORE
2%
JESSE JACKSON
1%
TED KENNEDY
1%
WALTER MONDALE
*
SAM NUNN
*
CHARLES ROBB
*
JAY ROCKEFELLER
*
PAUL SIMON
*
PAUL TSONGAS (SONG-gas)
1%
DOUG WILDER
*
OTHER (SPECIFY:
)
6%
NONE
11%
DON'T KNOW
73%
REFUSED
1%
OTHER MENTIONS UNDER 1%
DAVID BOREN
JIMMY CARTER
HENRY CISNEROS
DIANE FEINSTEIN
TOM HARKIN
GARY HART
BEN HEFLIN
HUMPHREY
BOB KERRY
GEORGE MCGOVERN
COLIN POWELL
DAN ROSTENKOWSKY
NORMAN SCHWARTZKOPF
38.
Just suppose for one moment you were the President of the United States and could
make one change or one improvement. What would that be? (ACCEPT ONLY ONE
RESPONSE)
POCKETBOOK/ECONOMY
SOCIAL
Big Business
*
Abortion (PRO-CHOICE)
*
Budget Negotiations/Lack of
Abortion (PRO-LIFE)
*
Federal Budget
2%
Child/Day Care
*
Deficits/Federal Debt
5%
Crime
1%
The Economy/Recession
6%
Drugs
3%
Energy
*
Education
7%
Farm Problems
*
Environment/Pollution
2%
Government Spending
2%
E.R.A./Equal Rights
*
High Gas Prices
*
Health care costs
4%
High Taxes/Unfair Taxes
6%
Housing
*
Industry
*
Nuclear Plants/Nuclear
Inflation
1%
Disaster
*
Labor Unions
*
Poverty/Hunger/Homeless
9%
Oil (Price/US dependency)
*
Racial Problems/Discrimina-
Unemployment
6%
tion
1%
Social Security/Aid to
FOREIGN POLICY/PEACE
Elderly
4%
Middle East Situation
Welfare (too little)
2%
American involvement/troops
in the Middle East
*
OTHER
Chemical Weapons
*
AIDS
*
Iraq/Saddam Hussein
*
Congress
2%
Situation/War in the Persian
Decline in Moral Values
1%
Gulf
4%
Future/Youth
1%
Government Corruption/Control
Arms Race/Nuclear Freeze
*
Bureaucracy/Leadership
4%
Foreign Policy
*
HUD problems
*
International Trade/Imports
*
illegal Aliens/Immigration
*
National Defense
*
Other (SPECIFY):
Too Much Foreign Aid
2%
World Respect
*
*
No Problems
*
Don't Know (DO NOT READ)
9%
REFUSED (DO NOT READ)
1%
Extended Page
2.1
POCKETBOOK/ECONOMY
SOCIAL
Budget Negotiations
1%
Abortion (PRO-LIFE)
*
Deficits/Federal Debt
6%
Child Abuse/Kidnapping
1%
The Economy/Recession
13%
Crime
3%
Energy
*
Drugs
11%
Farm Problems
*
Education
4%
Government Spending
1%
Environment/Pollution
6%
High Gas Prices
*
Health care costs
2%
High Interest Rates
*
Housing
*
High Taxes/Unfair Taxes
3%
Nuclear Plants/Nuclear
Industry
*
Disaster
*
Inflation
2%
Poverty/Hunger/Homeless
7%
Labor Unions
*
Racial Problems/Discrimina-
Unemployment
9%
tion
1%
Social Security/Aid to
FOREIGN POLICY/PEACE
Elderly
2%
Middle East Situation
Welfare (too little)
*
American involvement/troops
Welfare (too much)
*
in the Middle East
1%
Chemical Weapons
*
OTHER
Iraq/Saddam Hussein
*
AIDS
1%
Middle East
#
Congress
*
Saudi Arabia
*
Decline In Moral Values
4%
Situation in the Persian
Future/Youth
1%
Gulf
1%
Government Corruption/Control
Bureaucracy/Leadership
2%
Communism
*
HUD problems
*
Foreign Policy
*
Illegal Aliens/Immigration
*
International Trade/Imports
*
S & L Bailout
*
National Defense
*
George Bush
*
Too Much Foreign Aid
1%
Other (SPECIFY):
World Respect
*
No Problems
*
9%
Don't Know (DO NOT READ)
3%
REFUSED (DO NOT READ)
*
41.
In politics today, do you usually think of
STRONG REPUBLICAN
17%
yourself as a Republican, a Democrat,
NOT-SO-STRONG REPUBLICAN 18%
an Independent, or what?
NOT-SO-STRONG DEMOCRAT 20%
STRONG DEMOCRAT
13%
(IF REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT,
ASK:)
LEAN TO REPUBLICANS
9%
Would you call yourself a strong
INDEPENDENT/NO PREFERENCE17%
(Republican/Democrat) or a not-so-
LEAN TO DEMOCRATS
8%
strong (Republican/Democrat)?
(IF INDEPENDENT/OTHER/NO
PREFERENCE, ASK:) Do you think of
yourself as closer to the Republican or
to the Democratic party?
42. In politics today, do you generally consider yourself to be
(ROTATE)
liberal
or
conservative
on most issues?
(IF "LIBERAL/CONSERVATIVE", ASK:) Would you say that you are
VERY (liberal/conservative) or are you just SOMEWHAT
(liberal/conservative)?
VERY CONSERVATIVE
14%
SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE
43%
MODERATE (DO NOT READ)
3%
SOMEWHAT LIBERAL
27%
VERY LIBERAL
9%
NOT SURE/REFUSED
3%
Poll Watch
A Review of Recent National Polling Data
From the Office of the GOP Conference Secretary
Bill Canfield, Staff Director
Bob Kasten, Secretary
Rick Dearborn, Deputy
202-224-3496
Contents
5/15/91
1)
DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES: FAVORABLES VS.
UNFAVORABLES AMONG REGISTERED DEMOCRAT VOTERS
2) REGISTERED DEMOCRAT VOTERS CHOOSE DEMOCRATS'
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE
3) PRESIDENT BUSH VS. DEMOCRATIC PARTY CANDIDATE
4) DEMOCRAT'S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: VOTE ON THE
PERSIAN GULF WAR
5) SHOULD DEMOCRATS BE MORE CONSERVATIVE OR MORE
LIBERAL OR SHOULD THEY STAY THE SAME ?
6) CRITICISMS MADE OF THE DEMOCRATS AND THEIR PARTY
7) GOP LOSES BIG EDGE AS PARTY BETTER ABLE TO HANDLE
TOP PROBLEM
(CREDIT: GALLUP POLL NEWS SERVICE - RANDOM SAMPLE OF 1,005 REGISTERED VOTERS,
CONDUCTED BETWEEN APRIL 25-28, 1991, MARGIN OF ERROR +/- 3%)
1
DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES: FAVORABLES VS. UNFAVORABLES
AMONG REGISTERED DEMOCRAT VOTERS AND
DEMOCRAT-LEANING INDEPENDENTS
Please tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable
opinion of (each of the following Democrats who might run for
President in 1992) :
(BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC-LEANING
INDEPENDENTS)
Heard
Total
Favor-
Unfavor-
of/ No
Heard
able
able
Opinion
of
PCT
PCT
PCT
PCT
Jesse Jackson
42
52
5
99
George McGovern
36
39
17
92
Richard Gephardt
49
16
18
83
Mario Cuomo
48
22
12
82
Lloyd Bentsen
40
25
15
80
Albert Gore
41
16
15
72
George Mitchell
26
13
20
59
Douglas Wilder
25
14
20
59
Charles Robb
17
11
19
47
Bill Clinton
15
12
18
45
Paul Tsongas
15
12
15
42
Stephen Solarz
12
12
13
37
Dave McCurdy
7
12
14
32
(GALLUP POLL: CONDUCTED BETWEEN APRIL 25-28, 1991
MARGIN OF ERROR +/- 3%)
2
REGISTERED DEMOCRAT VOTERS CHOOSE DEMOCRATS'
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE
(Based on Registered Democrats and Democrat-Leaning Independents)
Please tell me which one of these persons you would like to see
nominated as the Democratic Party's candidate for President in
1992. And who would be your second choice?
(BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC-LEANING
INDEPENDENTS)
Combined
First/
First
Second
Second
Choice
Choice
Choice
Cuomo
23
10
33
Jackson
14
13
27
Bentsen
9
13
22
Gephardt
11
9
20
Gore
9
10
19
McGovern
8
11
19
Robb
4
3
7.
Wilder
3
3
6
Mitchell
3
2
5
Tsongas
1
3
4
Clinton
1
2
3
Solarz
1
1
2
McCurdy
0
0
0
(GALLUP POLL: CONDUCTED BETWEEN APRIL 25-28, 1991
MARGIN OF ERROR +/- 3%)
3
PRESIDENT BUSH VS. DEMOCRATIC PARTY CANDIDATE
(Based on Registered Voters)
If George Bush runs for re-election in 1992, in general are
you more likely to vote for Bush or for the Democratic Partys
candidate for President?
(BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS)
4/91
Party ID
All
2/91
3/91
Voters
Rep
Dem
Ind
PCT
PCT
PCT
PCT
PCT
PCT
Bush
54
67
51
85
20
45
Democratic
candidate
33
17
30
2
67
25
Dont know
13
16
19
13
13
30
100
100
100
100
100
100
(GALLUP POLL: CONDUCTED BETWEEN APRIL 25-28, 1991
MARGIN OF ERROR +/- 3%)
4
DEMOCRAT'S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE:
VOTE ON THE PERSIAN GULF WAR
(Based on Registered Voters)
If you knew that a Democratic presidential candidate voted
against the resolution allowing President Bush to use military
force in the Persian Gulf War, would that make you more likely or
less likely to vote for him -- or would it not much affect your
vote?
(BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS)
Not
More
Less
Much
Don't
Likely
Likely
Effect
Know
PCT
PCT
PCT
PCT
All Voters
11
23
61
5
Party ID
Republican
8
32
58
2
Democrat
14
15
65
6
Independent 11
23
60
6
(GALLUP POLL: CONDUCTED BETWEEN APRIL 25-28, 1991
MARGIN OF ERROR +/- 3%)
5
SHOULD DEMOCRATS BE MORE CONSERVATIVE OR MORE LIBERAL
OR SHOULD THEY STAY THE SAME ?
Over the next few years, would you like to see the Democratic
Party and its candidates move in a more conservative direction, a
more liberal direction or stay about the same?
Stay
More
More
the
Don't
Conserv
Liberal
Same
Know
PCT
PCT
PCT
PCT
All Adults
34
20
35
11
Party ID
Rep
44
14
32
10
Dem
31
24
39
6
Indep
29
21
35
15
(GALLUP POLL: CONDUCTED BETWEEN APRIL 25-28, 1991
MARGIN OF ERROR +/- 3%)
6
CRITICISMS MADE OF THE DEMOCRATS AND THEIR PARTY
I'm going to read some criticisms that have been made about
the Democratic Party and its candidates. Please tell me whether
you generally agree or disagree with the following statements:
"The Democrats are too supportive of racial quotas as a way to
improve conditions for minorities."
Don't
Agree
Disagree
Know
PCT
PCT
PCT
All Adults
48
40
12
Party ID
Rep
62
25
13
Dem
32
60
8
Indep
45
40
15
"The Democrats are too weak on foreign policy and national
defense."
Don't
Agree
Disagree
Know
PCT
PCT
PCT
All Adults
50
38
12
Party ID
Rep
71
19
10
Dem
32
57
11
Indep
46
40
14
"The Democrats rely too much on increasing taxes and government
spending to deal with problems."
Don't
Agree Disagree
Know
PCT
PCT
PCT
All Adults
61
33
6
Party ID
Rep
76
19
5
Dem
40
54
6
Indep
61
31
8
(GALLUP POLL: CONDUCTED BETWEEN APRIL 25-28, 1991
MARGIN OF ERROR +/- 38)
7
GOP LOSES BIG EDGE AS PARTY BETTER ABLE TO HANDLE TOP PROBLEM
The big boost provided to the Republican Party's image by
Desert Storm's success is no longer evident. One month ago, in
the afterglow of victory in the Gulf, the Gallup Poll found 40
percent of Americans viewing the GOP as the party better able to
handle the country's most important problem. Currently, 32
percent see the Republicans as clearly superior to the Democrats.
The Republican Party still maintains a slight edge (32
percent VS. 27 percent) over the Democratic Party on this key
measure of party strength. The current figures, however, suggest
that high public regard for President Bush's handling of foreign
affairs may not improve public confidence of his handling of
domestic affairs.
Since the Gulf War ended, many expected the economy to
replace the war as the dominant concern of the public. But this
has not proved to be true. The biggest shift has been towards
domestic problems. Today, Americans are about as likely to cite
poverty, drugs, education, ethics or the environment (35 percent)
as they are to cite an economic problem (39 percent).
The public tends to see these domestic problems -- with the
exception of the drug issue -- as better handled by the
Democratic Party. Although Bush's education plan helped increase
the visibility of the issue, those who consider education the top
problem do not see the GOP as better able to improve the
situation (35 percent cite the Democrats; 29 percent the GOP).
What do you think is the most important problem facing this
country today ?
1/91
2/91
3/91
4/91
PCT
PCT
PCT
PCT
Economic Problems (Net)
29%
30%
48%
39%
Economy (General)
15
16
24
20
Unemployment/Recession
7
7
8
10
Federal Budget deficit
4
6
8
6
Other Economic Problems
3
1
8
3
Non-Economic
Problems (Net)
64
64
43
51
Poverty/Hunger/
Homelessness
6
6
10
12
Drugs/Drug Abuse
9
5
11
10
Education Quality
2
2
2
6
Ethics/Moral Decline
5
3
2
4
Environment/Pollution
1
1
2
3
Iraq/Persian Gulf
Situation
25
37
4
3
Other non-economic
problems
16
10
12
13
Don't Know
7
6
9
10
(GALLUP POLL: CONDUCTED BETWEEN APRIL 25-28, 1991
MARGIN OF ERROR +/- 3%)
8
GOP LOSES BIG EDGE AS PARTY BETTER ABLE TO HANDLE TOP PROBLEM
CONTINUED
Which political party do you think can do a better job of
handling the problem you have just mentioned -- The Republican
Party or the Democratic Party ?
9/88 10/90
3/91 4/91
PCT PCT
PCT PCT
Republican Party
38% 30%
40% 32%
Democratic Party
33
29
27
27
No difference/
No opinion
29
41
33
41
(GALLUP POLL: CONDUCTED BETWEEN APRIL 25-28, 1991
MARGIN OF ERROR +/- 3%)
~> SUNUNU
Response delayed
OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT STATES OF TNE UNITED
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
due to strike at
OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20503
CUNY. more
April 26, 1991
data to
MEMORANDUM FOR DICK DARMAN
forlow.
THROUGH:
Tom Scully say
THE CHIEF of STAFF
Richard Bavier RB
seen has
DichD.
FROM:
4/27
SUBJECT:
CUNY Poll on Religion in America
A report from CUNY, including a short description of the study and some cross-tabulations, is
attached.
This is purported to be the largest poll asking about religion in America (113,000 persons). It is so
big because it is a part of an omnibus market research survey. A sample of this size permits State-
level estimates of many of the parameters.
We have other survey data on the religious preferences and affiliations of Americans, but not
current, State-level data. The Bureau of the Census performed at least one special survey of
religious preference that I know of. Private polling organizations periodically ask about religious
preference and affiliation, and some historical data are available.
Religious preference - persons 18 and older
Protestant Catholic Jewish Other None
1957
66%
26%
3%
1%
3%
1967
67%
25%
3%
3%
2%
1975
62%
27%
2%
4%
6%
1980
61%
28%
2%
2%
7%
1985
57%
28%
2%
4%
9%
1987
57%
28%
2%
4%
9%
1988
56%
28%
2%
2%
9%
Source: Gallup polls
CUNY poll
1989-90
57%
27%
2%
6%
8%
Among the interesting State data in the CUNY poll -
*
States in the Mountain and Pacific regions tend to have the largest portion of people claiming
"no religion" (but still only 10 - 15 percent).
*
Idaho, with a large Mormon population (30 percent), also has one of the largest shares
claiming "no religion" (12 percent).
*
In only three States (Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island) is the largest U.S.
denomination - Roman Catholic - actually a majority faith. In three others (Alabama, Georgia,
and Mississippi), a majority identified themselves as Baptists, the second largest denomination.
The faith with the greatest majority in any State is the Latter Day Saints in Utah (69 percent).
A lot of the national data just confirm what we know from earlier sources -
*
About half of all black Americans identify themselves as Baptists.
About two-thirds of Hispanic Americans identify themselves as Roman Catholics.
Jews in America are mainly urban dwellers (96 percent).
The cross-tabulations CUNY supplied have a few curiosities too -
Unitarians are much more likely to be divorced than any other group.
Nearly half those who identified themselves as descended from Middle Eastern ancestry also
identified themselves as Roman Catholic (rather than Muslim).
Two strong cautions need to be kept in mind with survey data on religion. First, some bedrock
issues of human behavior arise in trying to understand the direction of causality in the data.
Religious affiliation tends to correlate with income and various associated characteristics, such as
educational attainment. Episcopalians are more likely to be college graduates than those with no
religion. Is the Episcopal faith a causal factor in educational attainment, or does higher income
make it more likely that a person will be Episcopalian and a college graduate? This kind of issue
arises, for example, with claims about connections between religious training and high school
completion, illegitimacy, and drug abuse by adolescents.
Second, surveys usually don't tell us much about the way people are religious, such as their
attendance at worship services, religious behaviors outside of religious institutions, and the
importance of religious ideas and prescriptions in shaping their conduct. So, survey data which
show little variation in response to questions about religious preference can mask significant
changes in the form that the affiliation takes in the lives of the respondents.
For example, during the 1970s and 1980s, evangelical movements in the major Christian
denominations gained membership in reaction to what many perceived as increasing irrelevance of
the main-line churches to their personal needs. Televangelists prospered as well. That kind of
change in the way people are religious tends not to show up when people are asked whether they
are Protestant, Catholic, or Jew. Some of the surge of evangelism would show in finer tabulations
of Protestant denominations. Some would not because, for example, from the 1960s through the
1980s, individual denominations and congregations tilted first towards issues of social justice, then
towards the personal spiritual development of their members. The members would answer survey
questions about religious affiliation the same way throughout, but the meaning of their religious
affiliation would be significantly different at different times.
Attachment
THE GRADUATE SCHOOL AND UNIVERSITY CENTER
OF THE CITY UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK
RESEARCH REPORT
THE NATIONAL SURVEY OF RELIGIOUS IDENTIFICATION
1989-90
(Selected Tabulations)
Study Director
Professor Barry A. Kosmin
CUNY Graduate Center
In co-operation with
Professor Seymour P. Lachman,
University Dean for Community Development,
The City University of New York
March 1991
RESEARCH REPORT
The National Survey of Religious Identification
1989 - 1990
Study Director
Professor Barry A. Kosmin
CUNY Graduate School and University Center
This survey relates to a random digit-dialled telephone survey of 113,000
American households in the continental U.S.A. (48 states).
The data was collected over a 13-month period, April 1989-April 1990 at the
rate of 2,000 interviews a week by ICR Survey Research Group of Media, PA as part
of their omnibus market research (EXCEL) survey. The prime question on the file
is: What is your religion? If the initial answer was Protestant there was a further
question as to which denomination. The respondent is a randomly chosen (last
birthday) adult over 18 years. Nineteen other socio-demographic questions are
attached to this. They are:
For Respondent
1.
Age
5.
Race
2.
Marital status
6.
Political party affiliation
3.
Employment status
7.
Sex
4.
Level of education
8.
Head of household or not
For Household
9.
Own or rent
14.
Number of children (0-6)
10.
Total number living in
15.
Total household income
household
16.
Number of telephones
11.
Number of adults 18+
17.
Metro/rural status
12.
Number of children 12-17
18.
State
13.
Number of children 6-11
19.
U.S. region
The data which are weighted by ICR using the latest Census Bureau statistics, reflect the
known composition of U.S. households and the total population. The weighting, which is
incorporated into each record takes into account the disproportionate probabilities of household
selection due to the number of separate telephone lines and the probability associated with the
random selection of an individual household member. Following application of the above weights,
the sample is post-stratified and balanced by key demographics such as age, sex, region and
education. However, weighting cannot compensate for characteristics that are neither geographic
nor demographic in nature. The most obvious is an inability to communicate in English or Spanish,
the interview languages. This means there may be a tendency to underestimate some of the
smaller religious groups that contain a high proportion of recent immigrants. Nevertheless, the
range of error will not be enormous even in these cases. The overall sampling error for the survey
is 0.4% at the 95% confidence level.
The overall refusal rate for the question on religion is very low, only 2.2 per cent. The
response categories to this question include a "None/No religion" option (7.7%) as well as generic
"Christian" (4.7%) and a residual "Protestant" (10.3%) category.
The remaining 76.1 per cent of respondents distribute themselves among the following
denominations and religions on which we can report:
Catholic, Baptist, Methodist, Lutheran, Presbyterian, Episcopalian, Latter Day
Saints/Mormon, Pentecostal, Church of Christ, Jehovah's Witness, Evangelical/Born
Again Christian, Seventh Day Adventist, Assembly of God, Unitarian,
Quaker/Mennonite, Congregational, Nazarene, Holiness/Holy, Greek Orthodox,
Church of God, Worldwide Church of God, Christian Science, Disciples of Christ,
Russian Orthodox, New Apostolic, Charismatic, Wesleyan, Fundamentalist,
Independent Church, Eastern Orthodox, Dutch Reformed, Christian Reform, Four
Square, Covenant/Covenant Mission, Church of God in Christ, Church of America,
Open Bible.
Jewish, Muslim, Buddhist, Hindu, Bahai, Taoist, Shintoist, Rastafarian.
Deity, Humanist, Eckankar, Wicca, New Age, Scientologist, Ecumenical, Agnostic,
Other.
Standard Error Estimates for National Screening
Phase Population Data
(95% Confidence Level)
Sample Size
Sample
Estimate
5000
10,000
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
125,000
(%)
2 or 98
0.45
0.32
0.23
0.16
0.13
0.11
0.10
0.09
5 or 95
0.70
0.50
0.35
0.25
0.20
0.18
0.16
0.14
10 or 90
0.97
0.68
0.48
0.34
0.28
0.24
0.22
0.19
20 or 80
1.29
0.91
0.64
0.46
0.37
0.32
0.29
0.26
25 or 75
1.39
0.99
0.70
0.49
0.40
0.35
0.31
0.28
30 or 70
1.47
1.04
0.74
0.52
0.43
0.37
0.33
0.29
40 or 60
1.58
1.11
0.79
0.56
0.46
0.39
0.35
0.32
50 or 50
1.61
1.14
0.80
0.57
0.46
0.40
0.36
0.32
The above standard errors were computed with an estimated Design Effect computed using a within sample
replication procedure. This replication process incorporates the effects of the sample selection procedure and
final weighting procedure on the actual estimates derived from the survey.
If one were examining a sample characteristic of 5% on a sample of 125,000 respondents, the estimated
standard error (95%) would be +/- 0.14%. Or, expressed as a range: 4.86% to 5.14%.
2
Self-Described Religious Adherence
of U.S. Adult Population 1990
(Weighted Estimates)
Total U.S. Population 18+ = 175,440,000
Religious Denomination - Christians
Number
%
Christian
(no denomination supplied)
8,073,000
4.6
Roman Catholic
46,004,000
26.2
Protestant
(no denomination supplied)
17,214,000
9.8
Baptist
33,964,000
19.4
Methodist
14,116,000
8.0
Lutheran
9,110,000
5.2
Presbyterian
4,985,000
2.8
Pentecostal
3,116,000
1.8
Episcopalian/Anglican
3,042,000
1.7
Mormon/LDS
2,487,000
1.4
Church of Christ
1,769,000
1.0
Jehovah Witness
1,381,000
0.8
Seventh Day Adventist
668,000
Assembly of God
660,000
Holiness/Holy
610,000
Nazarene
549,000
Unitarian
463,000
Evangelical/Born Again
446,000
Church of God
442,000
Congregational
438,000
Greek Orthodox
384,000
Quaker/Mennonite
302,000
Christian Science
214,000
Brethren
206,000
Disciples of Christ
144,000
New Apostolic
117,000
Worldwide Church of God
116,000
3
Religious Denomination - Christians
Number
%
Russian Orthodox
85,000
Charismatic
75,000
Wesleyan
58,000
Christian Reform
40,000
Eastern Orthodox
33,000
Church of God in Christ
32,000
Fundamentalist
27,000
Independent Church
25,000
Four Square Gospel
24,000
Dutch Reform
19,000
Covenant
16,000
Church of America
11,000
Four Square
4,000
Open Bible
4,000
Non-Denominational
195,000
Total Christian
151,668,000
86.5
Religious Denomination - Non-Christians
Number
%
Jewish
3,137,000
1.8
Muslim/Islamic
527,000*
0.3 (0.5)*
Buddhist
401,000*
(0.4)*
Hindu
227,000*
(0.2)*
Bahai
28,000
Taoist
23,000
Rastafarian
14,000
Wiccan
8,000
Deity
6,000
Agnostic
1,186,000
0.7
Scientology
45,000
Humanist
29,000
New Age
20,000
Eckankar
18,000
Other unclassified
889,000
No religion
13,116,000
7.5
Refused
4,031,000
2.3
U.S. Total
175,440,000
100.0
#
Adjustments for undercounts due to language problems (see page 2)
4
ADULT POPULATION
MARITAL STATUS BY RELIGIOUS DENOMINATION
Denomination
Divorced
Separated
Single
Widowed
Married
Total
Unitarian
18.0
3.1
15.5
7.1
55.9
100.0
No Religion
11.3
2.7
30.8
3.3
51.5
100.0
Christian Science
11.2
3.0
21.6
9.7
53.7
100.0
Pentecostal
10.9
3.4
15.6
7.1
62.7
100.0
Assembly of God
10.2
3.0
8.6
7.8
70.4
100.0
Episcopalian
9.9
2.0
17.3
10.7
59.7
100.0
Seventh Day Adventist
9.6
2.8
19.1
9.3
58.6
100.0
Baptist
9.5
3.1
18.9
8.5
59.9
100.0
Methodist
9.1
1.8
15.0
11.4
62.5
100.0
Nazarene
9.0
0.9
15.6
7.1
62.7
100.0
Brethren
9.0
4.2
9.0
6.9
70.8
100.0
Congregational
8.8
1.6
13.2
14.8
61.2
100.0
Jewish
8.7
1.4
25.9
8.2
55.6
100.0
Jehovah Witness
8.7
4.5
16.0
6.1
64.4
100.0
Presbyterian
8.5
1.4
15.6
11.0
63.4
100.0
Buddhist
8.4
3.4
37.8
2.9
47.1
100.0
Evangelical/Born Again
8.2
3.4
15.5
8.5
64.5
100.0
Holiness
8.2
9.8
18.8
5.5
57.3
100.0
Church of God
8.2
1.2
9.5
13.2
67.9
100.0
Lutheran
8.0
1.4
16.2
8.8
65.4
100.0
Quaker/Mennonite
7.7
---
20.4
5.6
66.3
100.0
Catholic
7.5
2.0
24.9
6.6
58.8
100.0
Mormon/LDS
7.5
1.7
12.1
5.6
73.1
100.0
Church of Christ
6.2
1.5
11.7
10.5
70.0
100.0
Muslim
5.9
3.5
39.0
1.2
49.6
100.0
Hindu
4.6
1.5
30.8
---
63.1
100.0
Greek Orthodox
4.4
2.2
31.4
4.8
57.2
100.0
5
LEVEL OF EDUCATION BY RELIGIOUS DENOMINATION
High School
Less Than
Graduates and
College
Denomination
High School
Some College
Graduate
Total
None
18.5
57.9
23.6
100.0
Christian
21.0
63.0
16.0
100.0
Roman Catholic
17.4
62.6
20.0
100.0
Protestant
19.4
58.5
22.1
100.0
Baptist
32.6
57.0
10.4
100.0
Methodist
20.0
58.9
21.1
100.0
Lutheran
18.9
63.1
18.0
100.0
Presbyterian
13.1
53.1
33.8
100.0
Episcopalian
7.8
52.4
39.8
100.0
Pentecostal
35.6
57.5
6.9
100.0
Jehovah Witness
27.1
68.2
4.7
100.0
7th Day Adventist
27.2
54.9
17.9
100.0
Mormon
16.7
64.1
19.2
100.0
Jew
8.1
45.2
46.7
100.0
Moslem
18.5
51.3
30.2
100.0
Buddhist
11.3
55.3
33.4
100.0
Hindu
17.8
35.2
47.0
100.0
6
SOCIAL CHARACTERISTICS OF MAIN RELIGIOUS DENOMINATIONS
Proportion of Adherents
Proportion of Adherents
Residing in
Religious Denomination
Median Age of Adults
who are White
Metropolitan Areas
Catholic
40.1
79.9
84.5
Baptist
44.1
68.8
66.1
Methodist
48.0
86.0
66.3
Lutheran
45.4
97.0
71.2
Episcopalian
45.7
90.0
83.3
Presbyterian
48.2
92.9
77.8
Pentecostal
39.8
67.8
69.0
Mormon
41.6
93.6
72.9
Jews
44.4
93.4
96.0
7
RELIGIOUS DENOMINATION BY RACE
Percent Distribution
Denomination
WHITE
BLACK
OTHER
HISPANIC
None
7.7
5.6
14.2
5.9
Christian
4.6
4.0
6.4
5.2
Roman Catholic
26.5
9.2
27.1
65.8
Protestant
11.4
4.7
6.3
2.5
Baptist
15.3
50.0
10.8
7.4
Methodist
8.5
9.1
3.0
1.7
Lutheran
6.5
0.7
1.5
0.8
Presbyterian
3.4
0.8
2.1
0.7
Episcopalian
1.9
1.0
1.8
0.4
Pentecostal
1.4
4.0
1.5
2.0
Jehovah Witness
0.5
2.1
1.1
1.7
7th Day Adventist
0.3
1.0
0.5
0.3
Mormon
1.7
0.2
1.8
0.8
Jew
2.2
0.3
1.0
0.6
Moslem
0.1
0.9
3.0
0.3
Buddhist
0.1
0.1
4.1
0.3
Hindu
--
0.1
3.7
0.1
Others
7.9
6.2
10.1
3.5
Total
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
8
MEAN HOUSEHOLD SIZE BY RELIGIOUS DENOMINATION
Denomination
Persons
None
2.8
Roman Catholic
3.1
Baptist
3.0
Methodist
2.7
Lutheran
2.8
Episcopalian
2.8
Presbyterian
2.6
Pentecostal
3.4
Jehovah Witness
3.4
7th Day Adventist
3.0
Mormon
3.8
Jew
2.7
Moslem
3.3
Buddhist
3.1
Hindu
3.1
9
RELIGIOUS COMPOSITION OF STATE POPULATIONS 1990
(Percent Distribution)
Roman
Presby-
Episco-
Catholic
Baptist
Methodist
Lutheran
terian
Pentecostal
Jews
palian
Mormon
None
Others
AL
4.5
51.4
10.4
0.6
1.8
2.6
0.1
0.7
0.2
3.9
23.8
AZ
23.9
11.6
6.6
5.7
2.9
1.3
1.6
1.4
4.9
12.2
27.9
AR
4.9
42.2
8.8
1.7
2.4
5.9
0.1
0.7
0.4
5.8
27.1
CA
28.9
10.0
4.0
3.7
2.8
1.5
2.3
1.8
2.2
13.0
29.8
CO
25.1
10.0
7.7
7.3
4.4
1.0
1.8
1.8
2.4
11.4
27.1
CT
50.4
5.8
3.9
2.3
0.7
1.4
2.4
4.4
--
5.8
23.7
DE
26.4
9.2
26.5
2.4
3.4
3.4
1.4
3.0
--
7.2
17.1
DC
16.1
46.8
6.8
0.2
2.0
--
2.3
4.5
--
6.3
15.0
FL
23.2
22.2
8.2
3.3
3.6
2.4
3.6
2.4
0.6
7.2
23.3
GA
6.3
50.8
11.5
0.9
2.2
1.8
0.5
1.6
0.4
4.6
19.4
ID
11.5
3.9
5.8
4.1
2.0
0.4
--
1.0
30.5
11.9
28.9
IL
33.1
14.8
7.8
7.6
2.6
1.4
1.5
0.9
0.2
7.0
23.1
IN
19.5
16.5
9.9
5.1
2.2
2.1
0.3
0.7
0.7
7.4
35.6
IA
21.5
6.1
15.7
15.4
4.5
0.5
--
0.8
0.8
5.9
28.8
KS
17.3
16.4
14.7
5.4
3.7
2.5
0.3
1.3
0.7
5.7
32.0
KY
13.3
42.5
7.2
1.3
1.9
2.0
0.2
1.0
0.2
6.5
23.9
LA
46.8
29.2
5.2
0.8
0.5
2.3
0.2
0.6
0.2
2.9
7.3
ME
31.2
11.9
7.5
0.5
0.4
2.0
0.4
2.0
0.8
10.0
33.3
MD
24.9
17.4
13.8
6.0
3.0
1.7
2.8
2.7
0.3
7.2
20.2
MA
54.3
4.3
2.4
1.2
0.8
0.4
3.5
2.8
0.2
7.3
22.8
MI
29.2
15.7
6.8
8.3
2.6
1.3
0.8
1.4
0.3
8.7
24.9
10
RELIGIOUS COMPOSITION OF STATE POPULATIONS 1990
(Percent Distribution)
Roman
Presby-
Episco-
Catholic
Baptist
Methodist
Lutheran
terian
Pentecostal
Jews
palian
Mormon
None
Others
MN
29.2
3.5
4.3
33.9
3.1
1.0
0.8
1.0
0.3
5.6
17.3
MS
7.0
55.0
11.4
1.3
1.6
3.9
0.6
1.4
0.7
2.8
14.3
MO
20.3
24.9
7.1
5.9
2.4
2.4
0.6
0.8
1.1
6.5
28.0
MT
27.6
4.1
9.4
12.2
2.4
1.6
--
2.0
2.6
10.2
27.9
NE
29.4
4.4
11.0
16.3
4.4
0.6
0.5
2.0
0.8
7.0
23.6
NH
41.3
9.2
11.3
0.3
2.0
--
0.9
2.2
--
8.1
24.7
NV
23.9
7.0
6.9
5.1
1.0
2.0
0.9
1.8
4.4
13.2
33.8
NJ
45.9
10.2
6.7
3.1
3.2
1.9
4.3
2.3
0.1
5.5
16.8
NM
37.3
11.8
7.3
3.2
2.6
0.8
0.7
0.8
2.7
10.0
22.8
NY
44.3
8.3
6.1
2.7
2.4
1.5
6.9
2.0
0.2
6.4
19.2
NC
5.9
47.1
12.7
2.4
3.6
2.1
0.5
1.0
0.7
4.8
19.2
ND
30.1
3.9
3.5
36.5
2.8
--
0.4
--
0.4
1.6
20.8
OH
24.2
15.3
10.4
4.4
2.4
1.7
0.7
1.2
0.2
7.4
32.1
OK
8.0
32.6
9.2
2.2
1.4
2.9
0.2
1.2
0.3
6.5
35.0
OR
15.3
8.7
4.9
6.7
4.2
1.2
0.4
2.2
2.4
17.2
36.8
PA
33.2
9.9
8.7
8.6
5.3
1.1
1.7
1.7
0.1
4.9
24.8
RI
61.7
6.3
1.4
0.7
0.8
--
1.6
5.1
:
6.0
16.4
SC
5.7
46.5
15.6
2.5
3.5
2.0
0.3
2.0
0.6
3.2
18.1
SD
25.7
6.1
10.5
30.3
2.9
0.8
0.2
1.4
1.0
2.5
18.6
TN
4.7
43.0
10.7
1.0
4.3
2.6
0.3
1.1
0.4
6.0
25.9
TX
23.2
32.0
9.2
2.4
1.8
2.9
0.7
1.9
0.7
4.9
20.3
UT
6.0
2.4
1.2
1.2
1.0
0.4
0.7
0.5
69.2
7.8
9.6
11
RELIGIOUS COMPOSITION OF STATE POPULATIONS 1990
(Percent Distribution)
Roman
Presby-
Episco-
Catholic
Baptist
Methodist
Lutheran
terian
Pentecostal
Jews
palian
Mormon
None
Others
VT
36.7
5.3
5.6
1.3
2.0
0.4
1.1
3.5
--
11.4
32.7
VA
12.2
31.2
13.1
2.3
4.1
2.0
1.1
3.2
0.7
6.4
23.7
WA
19.0
7.2
6.2
7.8
4.6
1.5
0.4
1.8
1.9
14.0
35.6
WV
5.9
29.3
14.9
0.9
4.3
3.2
0.1
0.8
0.6
8.0
32.0
WI
38.6
4.0
6.4
26.2
1.7
1.0
0.4
0.9
0.4
6.1
14.3
WY
18.0
8.6
9.9
5.0
8.7
1.2
--
5.2
8.8
13.5
21.1
US Total*
26.2
19.4
8.0
5.2
2.8
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.4
7.5
24.2
*
Excluding Alaska and Hawaii
12
Religion by Party Affiliation
Democrats VS Republican
Religion
Jewish
Baptist
Pentecostal
Catholic
Methodist
Presbyterian
Lutheran
Episcopalian
Mormon/LDS
60%
45%
30%
15%
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
Party
Democrat
Republican
Remainder of each group comprises
Independents and others.
SELECTED ANCESTRY OR ETHNIC ORIGIN BY RELIGION
Religious Identification
Ethnic Origin
Christian
Catholic
Protestant
Jewish
No Religion
Total
(So Stated)
+ -Other Non-Christian
Dutch
6
10
64
0
15
100
English
6
12
63
1
19
100
French
3
39
47
1
11
100
German
7
26
51
1
16
100
Irish
3
33
51
0
13
100
Italian
2
72
14
0
12
100
Jewish
1
5
6
66
22
100
Middle Eastern*
10
44
13
0
33
100
Polish
2
73
11
5
12
100
Scandinavian
3
22
61
0
14
100
*Small Sample
SENTA BY:
:10-10-90 ;11:39AM ;
NRCC->
2024562397;# 1
MEHORANDUM
RE:
National Political Environment
DATE:
October 10, 1990
Keep in mind that in October 1982, the national mood found 35%
saying right direction/55% saying wrong track.
Last night's survey in NC 11 (Bush -- 59% in 1988) found:
Only 13% saying right direction/72% saying wrong track. That
is the worst national mood measure I've ever seen in a
district -- by at least 12 points.
President Bush has a 59% approval rating, with 28%
disapproving. Those numbers are still good overall, but they
are only 10 points above President Reagan's 49% approval
rating in October 1982.
More importantly, the trend we picked up yesterday --
significantly lower numbers with seniors -- has been
exacerbated. Only 34% of seniors approve, and 49% disapprove.
o
As in most districts, the generic ballot dropped. From a 40%
GOP/37% Dem generic to a 36% GOP/39% Dem ballot.
In FL 04 (Bush -- 63% in 1988)
O
Only 23% say right direction/68% wrong track. This is a swing
of 55 net points since September (50% right direction/40%
wrong track).
0
The President's approval rating is 65%-27%. Among seniors in
the district, he has a 54% approve/30% disapprove.
In CT 05 (Bush -- 58% in 1988)
Right direction/wrong track dropped from 38%/50% in late
August to 26%/66% -- a net swing of 28 points.
0
The President's approval rating is still fairly good -- 69%
approve/23% disapprove.
Among seniors, he has a 53% approve/37% disapprove rating.
In IL 11 (Bush - 54% in 1988)
O
Right direction/wrong track is 28%/60%.
Bush approval is 58%/35%, with seniors not so negative
(compared to other districts) -- 46% approve/39% disapprove.
2024562397;# 2
NATIONAL INDICATORS
WEEK ONE 9/30-10/5
WEEK TWO 10/8-10/12
Right
Wrong
Right Wrong
Date
CD
Direction
Track
Date
8
Direction Track
10/3
TX 13
18
62
10/9
RE 02
22
68
10/3
MA 05
20
69
10/9
TX 11
25
60
10/3
OR 05
26
61
10/9
MI 03
20
67
10/3
VT AL
26
59
10/9
FL 18
31
50
10/3
GA 10
35
57
10/10
NC 11
13
72
NRCC->
10/4
CA 17
32
52
10/10
FL 04
23
68
10/4
NH 01
27
62
10/10
CT 05
26
66
10/4
OK 01
29
49
10/10
IL 11
28
60
10/4
MM 07
31
53
10/5
GA 04
39
48
AVG
28
57
AVG
24
64
Bush
Bush
Bush
Bush
Date
8
Approve
Disap
Date
CD
Approve
Disap
10/4
CA 36
76
18
10/9
TX 11
64
20
10/5
GA 04
75
18
10/9
RE 02
62
23
:10-10-90 :11:40AM ;
10/9
FL 18
55
30
10/10
NC 11
59
28
10/10
FL 04
65
27
10/10
CT 05
69
23
10/10
IL 11
58
35
AVG
76
18
AVG
62
27
Generic
Generic
Generic
Generic
Date
CD
GOP
Dem
Date
CD
GOP
Dem
10/3
TX 13
38
40
10/9
RI 02
23
39
10/3
GA 10
37
42
10/9
TX 11
35
42
10/3
NA 05
46
30
10/9
MI 03
29
38
10/4
CA 17
43
34
10/9
FL 18
34
44
10/4
OK 01
36
38
10/10
NC 11
36
39
10/4
CA 36
36
32
10/10
FL 04
43
36
10/4
MM 07
34
34
10/10
CT 05
38
25
10/4
CA 17
43
34
10/10
IL 11
35
51
10/4
ин 01
48
28
10/5
GA 04
44
37
SENT BY:
Average
41
35
Average
34
39
The Polling Report
Vol. 7, No. 7
AN INDEPENDENT SURVEY OF TRENDS AFFECTING ELECTIONS, GOVERNMENT AND BUSINESS
April 1, 1991
After the Storm
Which Party Would
The Political Impact
Do a Better Job?
of the Gulf War
The polling organizations of Peter Hart and Robert Teeter for NBC
by Frederick S. Yang
News and The Wall Street Journal. March 15-19, 1991. N=1,505 reg.
voters nationwide:
" When it comes to [see below], which party do you think would do a better
job...?"
Conventional wisdom notwithstanding, reports of the
Democra-
Republi-
Democratic Party's demise in the afterma of the Persian
tic Party
can Party
Both
Neither
%
%
%
%
Gulf War are greatly exaggerated. Indeed, much like
Ensuring a strong national defense
heavyweight "Razor" Ruddock in his controversial bout
March 1991
10
48
30
5
with Mike Tyson, it appears that the Democrats are
Nov. 1989
15
51
21
5
prematurely being counted out of contention for 1992.
Keeping world peace
March 1991
15
43
23
9
While President Bush and the Republican Party
Oct. 1990
22
25
36
11
have benefitted from the strong public support for the
Getting the country out of a recession
Gulf War, it remains to be seen whether the latest ap-
March 1991
21
38
14
16
proval ratings and party identification figures are noth-
Controlling interest rates
March 1991
23
38
15
11
ing more than temporary reactions. Recent comments by
Controlling inflation
such figures as Texas Sen. Phil Gramm and Georgia
March 1991
20
37
19
14
Cong. Newt Gingrich indicate that Republicans believe
Protecting America's interests on trade issues
March 1991
21
35
22
9
the Gulf War is an issue that will transform the political
Oct. 1990
22
35
24
9
landscape and threaten Democratic control of Congress.
Dealing with taxes
A mid-March survey by the Times Mirror Center for
March 1991
30
32
16
13
the People and the Press seems to confirm that the "no"
Oct. 1990
38
25
17
14
vote by Democrats on military action against Iraq could
Dealing with the economy
March 1991
30
31
19
11
have some effect at the polls: 47% of respondents say they
Oct. 1990
31
30
21
13
would be less likely to reelect their congressman if he or
Reducing the federal deficit
she had voted against using force after the Jan. 15th
March 1991
23
29
15
23
Oct. 1990
25
27
19
23
deadline, while just 12% would be more likely. (Editor's
Reducing the drug problem
Note: See page 6 for more from the Times Mirror poll.)
March 1991
16
25
23
24
With the 1992 election nearly 20 months away, no
Oct. 1990
20
18
30
24
one can say with any certainty the extent to which the
Reducing unemployment
March 1991
42
23
15
10
Persian Gulf War will dominate voters' agendas. We will
Oct. 1990
40
24
18
11
have to wait several months, until the euphoria over the
Improving mass transit, roads, and highways
decisive victory has subsided, to gauge the actual impact
March 1991
24
20
23
17
of the war and whether opposition to the President in the
Protecting the environment
March 1991
35
16
25
15
Jan. 12th congressional vote will prove to be a political lia-
Oct. 1990
38
15
27
13
bility.
Strengthening our educational system
Surveys of public attitudes on the war vote con-
March 1991
28
14
30
20
Oct. 1990
33
15
30
14
Continued on page 3
Providing better health care
March 1991
47
14
16
13
Assisting the homeless
Frederick S. Yang is an analyst with Peter D. Hart Research Assoc.
March 1991
56
11
13
11
in Washington.
Nov. 1989
51
10
20
13
ISSN 0887-171X ©1991 THE POLLING REPORT, INC.
509 Capitol Court, N.E., Suite 100, Washington, D.C. 20002
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544-5455
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(202)
544-1695
PUBLISHER & EDITOR: Thomas H. Silver ASSISTANT EDITOR: Ethan Starr
Published twice a month
$195 for one year, $330 for two years
"Should a Palestinian state be established on the West Bank territory now held
by Israel, or on land within an Arab country?" (Asked only of those who
Israelis and Palestinians
think the U.S. should support creation of a Palestinian state)
%
West Bank
36
Arab lands
42
The Gallup Poll. March 14-17, 1991. N=1,005 adults nationwide:
Don't know
22
"In the Middle East situation, are your sympathies more with the Israelis or
"Since the PLO sided with Iraq in the Gulf War, do you think the United States
should look to others to represent the Palestinians, or should the United States
more with the Palestinian Arabs?" (Asked only of those who said they are
following the Mideast situation very or fairly closely)
look to the PLO to represent the Palestinians?"
%
March
Oct.
Dec.
May
Others
46
1991
1990
1988
1986
%
%
%
%
The PLO
28
Israelis
60
48
46
43
Don't know
27
Palestinian Arabs
17
23
24
20
Both/Neither (vol.)
16
19
16
20
Yankelovich Clancy Shulman for Time and CNN. March 7, 1991.
Don't know
7
10
14
17
N=1,000 adults nationwide:
"As a way to bring peace to the Middle East, it has been proposed that Israel
"Do you think that the United States should use political pressure to get Israel to
withdraw from occupied Arab lands if Arab nations in return recognize Israel's
reach a peace settlement with the Palestinians?"
right to exist as a nation. Do you favor or oppose this proposal?"
%
%
Yes
52
Favor
73
No
38
Not sure
Oppose
17
10
Don't know
10
"Do you think that the United States should use economic pressure to get Israel
to reach a peace settlement with the Palestinians?"
"How likely do you think it is that both sides will agree to this proposal?"
%
%
Yes
40
Very likely
4
No
50
Somewhat likely
33
Not sure
10
Not too likely
42
Not at all likely
17
"Do you favor or oppose convening an international conference-that would
Don't know
4
include the Palestinians-to help resolve problems in the Middle East?"
"If Israel did give up occupied Arab lands, how likely is it that this action would
%
bring lasting peace to the Mideast?"
Favor
73
%
Oppose
17
Very likely
11
Not sure
10
Somewhat likely
46
Not too likely
27
"In order to reach a peace settlement, do you think that Israel should talk with
Not at all likely
12
the PLO or should Israel find other Palestinians to talk with?"
Don't know
4
%
Talk with PLO
35
ICR Survey Research Group for the Associated Press. March 6-10, 1991.
Talk with other Palestinians
43
N=1,005 adults nationwide:
Not sure
22
"I'm going to read you a list of nations and groups that played a role in the war
CBS News/New York Times Poll. March 4-6, 1991. N=1,252 adults
with Iraq. For each, please tell me whether you have gained respect for them, lost
nationwide:
respect for them, or whether your opinion of them is unchanged."
"With regard to the situation in the Middle East, at the present time, do you find
Un-
Don't
yourself more in sympathy with Israel or more in sympathy with the Arab
Gained
Lost
changed
Know
nations?"
%
%
%
%
March
June
Israel
55
6
35
5
1991
1990
Saudi Arabia
52
10
32
6
%
%
Syria
16
10
61
13
More with Israel
49
40
Jordan
7
43
41
9
More with Arab nations
20
19
The Palestine Liberation
Neither/Both
16
16
Organization or PLO
5
25
56
13
Don't know
15
25
"The Palestinians have fought for many years for the establishment of a
"Do you favor or oppose giving the Palestinians a homeland in the occupied
Palestinian state. Do you think the U.S. should support creation of a Palestinian
territories of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip?"
state, oppose it, or haven't you thought enough about this issue to have an
opinion?"
March
June
1991
1990
%
%
%
Support
26
Favor
46
47
Oppose
17
Oppose
19
25
Haven't thought enough
57
Don't know
35
28
The Polling Report
2
April 1, 1991
AFTER THE STORM continued from page 1
this country that it implies-has some validity with voters
even after the overwhelming victory. In a mid-March NBC
ducted now need to be judged in context. With public
News/Wall Street Journal survey respondents were read the
support for the President's Gulf policy in the 80% range, and
following statements and asked which came closer to their
with the high salience of the issue, it should not be surpris-
point of view:
ing that a plurality of voters currently say they disapprove
of anti-war votes.
Statement A: The war with Iraq has taught us that the United States
In fact, there is some evidence that the Gulf War might
should not be as reluctant to use its forces and superior weapons
not benefit the Republican Party, as conventional wisdom
when American interests are threatened.
assumes. There is the strong possibility that the American
people could reject the politicization of the war, particularly
Statement B: The war with Iraq taught us that this was a special
if Republicans become too aggressive and cross the fine line
circumstance in which the United States had the support of many
countries, and that the United States should use military force only
between criticizing their opponents' judgment and ques-
as a last resort.
tioning their patriotism. In an analysis of the political conse-
quences of the Gulf War, columnist George Will noted that
Overall, voters agreed with Statement B by an over-
"Republicans have been dealt a strong hand, but they could
whelming 80% to 15% margin. Even those respondents less
overplay their cards too crudely."
likely to support a representative who opposed giving Bush
Indeed, the emerging message on the war from voters
the authority to use force after Jan. 15 sided with Statement
is: Don't politicize Operation Desert Storm. A March 9-11
B by 75% to 21%.
survey by the Los Angeles Times asked if the "politicians who
opposed the original decision to go to war against Iraq"
showed good judgment. A 58% majority said it is not
possible to say, while one-fifth said they exercised good
The disagreement with the President
judgment and an equal number said they exercised bad
judgment.
was on timing and tactics, not the
Furthermore, a four-to-one majority (76% to 19%) said
goal of getting Iraq out of Kuwait, or
they generally respect the convictions of those who origi-
nally opposed Bush's decision to fight. But most signifi-
even on the use of military force
cantly, there is a clear consensus that this vote should not be
debated as a political issue (71% thought it should not be
debated, 26% said it should). Even a 73% majority of Repub-
It is not likely that voters will make their decision in the 1992
licans said that the war vote should not be politicized.
elections based on this one issue alone. The data show that
Americans seem to realize that the vote on Jan. 12th was a
while they give strong support to the war, they have yet to
close call, with good intentions on both sides of the aisle and
sort out all the implications or come to any grand conclu-
little display of partisan politics.
sions. The quick and decisive nature of Operation Desert
Storm, with the lack of any significant anti-war movement
Even though the political repercussions of the Gulf
War are not yet known, Democrats who opposed the Presi-
to create controversy, means that voters are not in a particu-
lar mood to seek retribution. Indeed, the first week of
dent would be prudent to explain their position to the
voters in anticipation of Republican attacks. In certain re-
March, when a CBS News/New York Times survey asked
spects, the "no" vote is easily defensible and Democrats
which political party had given greater support to the war,
should not yield to anyone in their support for this country
just 18% said the GOP had, while nearly three-quarters
and its troops.
(73%, including 72% of Republicans) said each party had
given equal support.
In talking about this issue, it is important to make the
case to the voters with three distinct and simple arguments:
Anyone who is banking on the public's strong support
for the war being the decisive factor in next year's elections
First and foremost, it was a matter of conscience and
is making the assumption that this one issue will be the
deep personal conviction and had little to do with par-
predominant element in voters' decision-making. An early
tisanship;
March ABC News/Washington Post poll, which detected a
The disagreement with the President was on timing
high degree of concern on a variety of domestic issues (at
and tactics, not the goal of getting Iraq out of Kuwait,
least seven in ten felt the country is not making enough
or even on the use of military force; and
progress on the budget deficit, poverty, crime, drugs, health
Once American troops entered combat, President Bush
care, the economy, and education), indicates that there is
enjoyed total support from Congress.
still a long way to go before things play out. In this regard,
the voters are way ahead of the politicians and pundits by
Interestingly, one of the primary Democratic argu-
turning their attention to problems which might not be as
ments during the January debate-skepticism about the
glamorous as war, but which have more immediate influ-
"New World Order" and the larger international role for
ence on their everyday lives and this country's future.
April 1, 1991
3
The Polling Report
Rating Bush
ECONOMIC CONDITIONS IN THIS COUNTRY
FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICIT
on the Issues
The Gallup Poll. March 7-10, 1991. N=1,018
adults nationwide:
52%
"Now let me ask you about some specific problems
40%
40%
40%
facing the country. As I read off each one, would you
37%
tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the
32%
30%
31%
way President Bush is handling that problem?"
26%
25%
Shown is the percent approving of the way the
President is handling each problem.
3/89
11/89
7/90
10/90
3/91
3/89
11/89
7/90
10/90
3/91
SAVINGS AND LOAN CRISIS
FOREIGN POLICY
RELATIONS WITH THE SOVIET UNION
86%
84%
81%
82%
79%
70%
65%
62%
62%
61%
28%
22%
7/90
3/91
3/89
11/89
7/90
10/90
3/91
3/89
11/89
7/90
10/90
3/91
SITUATION IN EASTERN EUROPE
EDUCATION POLICY
DRUG PROBLEM
73%
72%
70%
69%
63%
63%
53%
53%
53%
50%
46%
46%
11/89
1/90
7/90
3/91
11/89
7/90
3/91
9/89
11/89
1/90
7/90
3/91
Continued on right
The Polling Report
4
April 1, 1991
A Fifth Face on Mount Rushmore?
Police Brutality
The polling organizations of Peter Hart and Robert Teeter for NBC
News and The Wall Street Journal. March 15-19, 1991. N=1,505 reg.
voters nationwide:
The Gallup Poll. March 14-17, 1991. N=1,005 adults nationwide:
"As you may know, the faces of four presidents-George Washington,
"In some places in the nation, there have been charges of police brutality. Do you
Thomas Jefferson, Abraham Lincoln, and Teddy Roosevelt-are carved into
think there is any police brutality in your area, or not?"
the side of Mount Rushmore. Which one of the following presidents would
you most like to see added as a fifth face on Mount Rushmore?"
1991
1965
%
%
%
Yes
35
9
John F. Kennedy
36
No
60
78
Franklin Roosevelt
28
Don't know
5
13
George Bush
11
Ronald Reagan
6
"How frequently do you think incidents like this happen in police departments
None of these (vol.)
16
across the country? Do you think they happen very frequently, somewhat
Not sure
3
frequently, not very frequently, or not at all?"
%
Very frequently
22
L.A.P.D. Poll
Somewhat frequently
46
Not very frequently
27
Los Angeles Times Poll. July 30-Sept. 25, 1990. N=398 L.A. police officers:
Not at all
2
Don't know
3
"Generally speaking, do you think 'street justice' administered by Los Angeles
police officers has increased or decreased over the last ten years, or do you think
"Do you happen to know anyone who has been physically mistreated or abused
it has remained about the same? And what I mean by 'street justice' is police
by the police?"
officers striking suspects because they think these suspects will not be dealt with
%
appropriately by the courts."
Yes
20
%
No
80
Increased
3
Decreased
67
Remained the same
10
The Gallup Organization for Newsweek. March 14-15, 1991. N=763
Not sure/Refused
20
adults nationwide:
"Generally speaking, how often, if ever, do you, yourself, administer 'street
"How much police brutality against members of minority groups do you think
justice' because you think suspects you are arresting will not be dealt with
there is around the country these days?..."
appropriately by the courts? Do you do it frequently, or occasionally, or do you
do it seldom or do you never administer 'street justice?"
%
Very great
21
%
Considerable
41
Frequently
-
21
Occasionally
1
Little
Seldom
6
Very little
10
Never
88
Don't know
7
Not sure/Refused
5
Continued from left
POVERTY AND HOMELESSNESS
ABORTION ISSUE
ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES
52%
46%
46%
43%
45%
42%
38%
36%
33%
30%
30%
27%
8/89
11/89
7/90
3/91
7/89
11/89
7/90
3/91
9/89
7/90
10/90
3/91
April 1, 1991
5
The Polling Report
CAMPAIGN '92 UPDATE
CAMPAIGN '92 UPDATE
CAMPAIGN '92 UPDATE
The Vote for War and
"If you learned that your congressman had voted по to using force against Iraq
after the Jan. 15 deadline had expired-would it make you more likely or less
likely to vote for his or her reelection, or wouldn't it affect you?" (N=1,016
adults nationwide)
the Vote for Congress
%
More likely
12
Less likely
47
No effect
36
No opinion
5
The polling organizations of Peter Hart and Robert Teeter for NBC
News and The Wall Street Journal. March 15-19, 1991. N=1,505 reg.
"Why do you think the Democrats in Congress who voted against going to war
voters nationwide:
did so?..." (N=1,016 adults nationwide)
%
"Looking ahead to the election for U.S. Congress in 1992, do you plan to vote for
Mainly because they thought economic
the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?"
sanctions might work
46
Mainly because they wanted to
%
oppose President Bush
19
Republican candidate
30
Mainly because today's Democrats
Democratic candidate
30
are reluctant to use military force
18
Depends (vol.)
27
Don't know
17
Neither (vol.)
2
Not sure
11
Los Angeles Times Poll. March 9-11, 1991. N=1,518 adults nationwide:
"If you learned that your representative in Congress voted against giving
"If the election for Congress were being held today, which party would you like
President Bush the authority to take military action against Iraq after the
to see win in this congressional district?"
January 15 U.N. deadline and in favor of giving economic sanctions more time to
Think we're
get Iraq out of Kuwait, would you be more likely or less likely to support your
In serious
representative for reelection next year, or would it not make much difference?"
Reces-
ALL
Dem.
Ind.
Rep.
sion
%
%
%
%
%
%
More likely to support
18
Democratic Party
41
88
41
5
55
Less likely to support
41
Republican Party
51
10
50
95
35
Would not make much difference
36
Other (vol.)
1
-
1
-
2
Not sure
5
Neither (vol.)
4
1
6
-
5
Don't know
3
1
2
-
3
Princeton Survey Research Assoc. for the Times Mirror Center for the
People and the Press. March 14-19, 1991:
"If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party would you like
Connecticut
to see win in your congressional district?" (N=1,618 reg. voters nationwide)
Republican
Democratic
U.S. SENATE: Chris Dodd (D), incumbent
Party
Party
Spring
March
Quinnipiac College Polling Institute. March 12-19, 1991. N=685 adults
March
Spring
1991
1990
1991
1990
statewide:
%
%
%
%
ALL
51
42
42
48
Sen. Dodd-Job Rating:
Male
54
47
39
42
March
June
Oct.
May
Sept.
1991
1990
1989
1989
1988
Female
49
39
44
52
%
%
%
%
%
White
55
47
38
42
Excellent
7
15
12
6
11
Black
23
9
73
82
Very good
42
49
45
47
46
Under 25 years
66
38
31
47
Fair
40
29
37
41
37
25-29
58
42
37
43
Poor
11
7
6
5
6
30-39
47
40
47
47
40-49
47
39
43
49
50-59
48
45
44
46
60 and older
51
47
42
48
New York
Less than $20,000
47
36
44
56
$20,000-$29,999
51
41
44
47
U.S. SENATE: Alfonse D' Amato (R), incumbent
$30,000-$49,999
51
44
44
48
$50,000 and over
58
54
37
35
Marist Institute for Public Opinion. Feb. 28 and March 4, 1991. N=583
reg. voters statewide:
"If you learned that your congressman had voted in favor of using force against
Iraq after the Jan. 15 deadline had expired-would it make you more likely or
"If Alfonse D' Amato runs for reelection to the U.S. Senate in 1992, do you
less likely to vote for his or her reelection, or wouldn't it affect you?" (N=1,016
definitely plan to vote for him, or do you definitely plan to vote against him?"
adults nationwide)
%
%
Definitely vote for D'Amato
32
More likely
44
Definitely vote against D'Amato
32
Less likely
13
Depends (vol.)
21
No effect
38
Undecided
15
No opinion
5
Continued on right
The Polling Report
6
April 1, 1991
CAMPAIGN '92 UPDATE
CAMPAIGN '92 UPDATE
CAMPAIGN '92 UPDATE
March
Oct.
1991
1990
Presidential Preference
%
%
George Bush (R)
67
52
Mario Cuomo (D)
22
35
Neither (vol.)
2
3
Not sure
9
10
The polling organizations of Peter Hart and Robert Teeter for NBC
News and The Wall Street Journal. March 15-19, 1991. N=1,505 reg.
George Bush (R)
68
voters nationwide:
Albert Gore (D)
18
Neither (vol.)
3
Democratic Primary Trial Heat (Asked of Democrats and independents
Not sure
11
only):
Favorability Ratings (Asked of all respondents):
March
Oct.
Unfamiliar/
1991
1990
Positive
Neutral
Negative
Not sure
%
%
%
%
%
%
Mario Cuomo
18
21
Colin Powell
71
8
3
18
Jesse Jackson
16
17
James Baker (R)
63
15
13
9
Lloyd Bentsen
12
14
Dick Cheney (R)
60
15
6
19
Richard Gephardt
7
9
Richard Gephardt (D)
26
28
14
32
Sam Nunn
7
6
Mario Cuomo (D)
25
23
17
35
Albert Gore
6
5
Lloyd Bentsen (D)
25
25
16
34
Doug Wilder
3
2
Sam Nunn (D)
25
23
12
40
Bob Kerrey
1
2
Albert Gore (D)
21
26
11
42
Someone else (vol.)
2
3
None (vol.)
12
11
Princeton Survey Research Assoc. for the Times Mirror Center for the
Not sure
16
10
People and the Press. March 14-19, 1991. N=2,028 adults nationwide.
(Note: Each trial heat was asked of approx. half of the total sample):
General Election Trial Heats (Asked of all respondents):
General Election Trial Heats:
March
Oct.
%
1991
1990
George Bush/Colin Powell (R)
79
%
%
Mario Cuomo/Bob Kerrey (D)
14
George Bush (R)
70
53
Other/Undecided
7
Lloyd Bentsen (D)
21
33
Neither (vol.)
2
3
George Bush/Dan Quayle (R)
74
Not sure
7
11
Mario Cuomo/Bob Kerrey (D)
17
Other/Undecided
9
Continued from left
Utah
General Election Trial Heats:
%
%
GOVERNOR: Open
Robert Abrams (D)
47
Alfonse D'Amato (R)
44
Alfonse D'Amato (R)
42
Elizabeth Holtzman (D)
42
Dan Jones and Assoc. for the Deseret News. March 1-4, 1991. N=603
Undecided
11
Undecided
15
adults statewide:
Alfonse D'Amato (R)
"On political matters the following Republicans and Democrats are being
53
Alfonse D'Amato (R)
43
mentioned as possible candidates for governor in 1992. On a scale of 1 to 5, with
Geraldine Ferraro (D)
34
Mark Green (D)
31
Undecided
13
Undecided
26
1 being not in favor and 5 being very much in favor, please tell me how you feel
about each candidate running for governor."
In favor
Neutral
Opposed
Sen. D'Amato-Job Rating:
(4 and 5)
(3)
(1 and 2)
March
Sept.
Feb.
Sept.
%
%
%
1991
1990
1990
1989
Palmer DePaulis (D)
40
29
19
%
%
%
%
Scott Matheson, Jr. (D)
32
27
16
Excellent/Good
42
43
37
42
Jim Hansen (R)
30
24
31
Fair/Poor
53
50
55
50
Val Oveson (R)
28
Don't know
25
6
()
21
8
8
9
Chase Peterson (D)
24
19
30
Merrill Cook (I)
16
17
52
Favorability Ratings (Among reg. Democrats only):
Nolan Karras (R)
13
18
20
Never
Steve Studdert (R)
Favor-
Unfav-
11
Don't
16
Heard
17
able
orable
Know
Of
Brent Ward (R)
11
23
18
%
%
%
%
Stewart Hansen, Jr. (D)
11
16
21
Robert Abrams (D)
56
10
21
13
Tony Rampton (D)
11
18
18
Geraldine Ferraro (D)
48
33
17
2
Kem Gardner (D)
10
18
20
Mark Green (D)
27
6
14
54
Scott Daniels (D)
10
13
18
Elizabeth Holtzman (D)
51
16
11
22
John Nielsen (R)
8
16
21
Robert Mrazek (D)
9
5
8
78
Richard Eyre (R)
8
15
20
Scott Howell (D)
7
16
21
April 1, 1991
7
The Polling Report
CAMPAIGN '91 UPDATE
CAMPAIGN '91 UPDATE
CAMPAIGN '91 UPDATE
Denver
Philadelphia
MAYOR: Open
MAYOR: Open
Ciruli Assoc. for KUSA-TV. Feb. 19-21, 1991. N=355 reg. voters citywide:
Strategy Assoc. for Pennsylvanians for Effective Government. March 3-
7, 1991. N=503 voters citywide Republicans were polled at roughly
twice their actual proportion," according to the press release):
Election Trial Heat (nonpartisan):
%
Norm Early
39
Republican Primary Trial Heat (among Republican voters):
Don Bain
22
Wellington Webb
15
First
Second
Unaccep-
Other
4
Choice
Choice
table
Undecided
20
%
%
%
Ron Castille
35
29
3
Runoff Trial Heats:
Frank Rizzo
30
23
21
%
%
Sam Katz
14
18
5
Don Bain
45
Norm Early
58
Dennis Morrison-Wesley
1
3
5
Wellington Webb
38
Wellington Webb
19
Undecided
19
27
Undecided
17
Undecided
23
Democratic Primary Trial Heat (among Democratic voters):
Norm Early
52
Don Bain
31
First
Second
Unaccep-
Undecided
17
Choice
Choice
table
%
%
%
Ed Rendell
20
21
7
Peter Hearn
12
10
4
Lucien Blackwell
10
7
17
George Burell
7
11
7
A Waiting Period for
Jim White
5
14
7
Undecided
46
37
Purchasing a Handgun
Fabrizio & McLaughlin Assoc. for Frank Rizzo. Feb. 28-March 3, 1991.
N=300 likely Republican primary voters citywide:
The Gallup Organization for Newsweek. March 14-15, 1991.
Republican Primary Trial Heat:
N=763 adults nationwide:
%
Ronald Castille
40
Frank Rizzo
35
"Would you favor or oppose a national law requiring a seven day waiting
Sam Katz
13
period before a handgun could be purchased, in order to determine
whether the prospective buyer has been convicted of a felony, or is
Dennis Morrison-Wesley
-
Undecided
11
mentally ill?"
A WAITING PERIOD FOR HANDGUNS
The Polling Report
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The Polling Report
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April 1, 1991
AMER RESEARCH GROUP
TEL No : 603-627-1746
Mar .27,91 12:52 P.02
HAMPSHIRE
The following results are based on a total of 1380 completed
telephone interviews among a random sample of registered voters
living in New Hampshire from March 12 through 25, 1991.
The overall sample of 1380 consists of 538 completed inter-
views among registered Republicans, 400 completed interviews of
registered Democrats, and 442 completed interviews of undeclared
registered voters (Independents). This reflects the composition
of registered voters by party in New Hampshire.
The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 1380
voters is plus or minus 2.64%, 95% of the time, on questions
where opinion is evenly split. The theoretical margin of error
for the sample of 538 registered Republicans is plus or minus
4.2%, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly
split. The theoretical margin of error for the sample of 400
registered Democrats is plus or minus 4.9%, 95% of the time, on
questions where opinion is evenly split.
Random-digit dialing was used to select households in this
probability-proportionate-to-size sample by party registration
and county. A quota system was used to select eligible respond-
ents in selected households by gender, splitting the sample 50%-
50% male/female.
Overall Results
Overall, 76% of respondents approve of the job George Bush
is doing as president, 11% disapprove, and 13% are undecided.
Among registered Republicans, 88% say they approve of the
job George Bush is doing as president, 4% disapprove, and 8% are
undecided.
Among registered Democrats, 63% say they approve of the job
George Bush is doing as president, 21% say they disapprove, and
16% are undecided.
Among undeclared voters, 74% say they approve of the job
George Bush is doing as president, 11% disapprove, and 15% are
undecided.
RESEARCH GROUP
TEL No. 603-627-1746
Mar 27,91 12:53 P.03
Question:
DO you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is
handling his job as president?
1
Approve
2
Disapprove
3
Undecided
1
2
3
( N )
TOTAL:
76%
11%
13%
(1380)
PARTY REGISTRATION:
Republican
88
4
8
(538)
Democrat
63
21
16
(400)
Undeclared
74
11
15
(442)
Republicans
George Bush is known by all registered Republicans in the
sample. Among registered Republicans, 78% indicate a strong
preference to vote for George Bush for president and 2% say they
would never vote for George Bush for president.
Democrats
The names of 22 potential Democratic presidential candidates
were tested for awareness and the likelihood of voting for that
person for president. The following table indicates the results.
An analysis of the responses comprising the table indicates
that Mario Cuomo, Lloyd Bentsen, Richard Gephardt, and Albert
Gore form an upper-tier of potential candidates based on this
measure of voting-based awareness. The composition of those
saying they would never vote for Lloyd Bentsen, however, could be
damaging to him in an effort to broaden his appeal.
A large and fairly homogeneous block of respondents say they
would never vote for Michael Dukakis, George McGovern, Jesse
Jackson, John Silber, or Jay Rockefeller for president.
With the exception of Paul Tsongas, the others on the list
fall below the upper-tier of potential candidates reflecting
their lower levels of awareness. As with Lloyd Bentsen, a poten-
tially damaging number of respondents say they would never vote
for Paul Tsongas.
AMER RESEARCH GROUP
TEL No 603-627-1746
Mar .27,91 12:53 P.04
AWARENESS AND PREFERENCE LEVELS OF POTENTIAL
DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT
AS OF MARCH 1991*
POTENTIAL
STRONG
STRONG
CANDIDATE
AWARE/UNAWARE
VOTE FOR
NOT VOTE FOR
Lloyd Bentsen
78%
22%
8%
21%
David Boren
16%
84%
-
5%
Bill Bradley
67%
33%
2%
7%
Richard Celeste
16%
84%
-
3%
William Clinton
13%
87%
-
3%
Mario Cuomo
90%
10%
14%
15%
Michael Dukakis
99%
1%
1%
63%
Richard Gephardt
98%
2%
3%
17%
Albert Gore
87%
13%
1%
20%
Bob Graham
34%
66%
-
11%
Tom Harkin
17%
83%
-
7%
Jesse Jackson
97%
3%
2%
52%
Bob Kerrey
50%
50%
-
16%
George McGovern
98%
2%
5%
48%
George Mitchell
60%
40%
2%
16%
Sam Nunn
69%
31%
1%
18%
Charles Robb
47%
53%
-
12%
Jay Rockefeller
77%
23%
-
27%
John Silber
80%
20%
3%
41%
Stephen Solarz
22%
78%
-
11%
Paul Tsongas
87%
13%
3%
23%
Douglas Wilder
26%
74%
1%
11%
*
Based on 400 completed telephone interviews among a statewide
random sample of registered Democrats.
3
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8
TARRANCE & ASSOCIATES
Research for Decisions in Politics and Public Affairs
Governor Sununu
XXMORANDUX
FYI
TO:
Roger Ailes
from
Greg Stevens
Don Walter
-
Roger
Ailes
FROM:
V. Lance Tarrance, Jr.
Bd Goeas
Brian c. Tringali
DATE:
March 11, 1991
RE:
Summary of Kentucky Statewide Survey for Governor
The Larry Hopkins for Governor campaign contracted with Tarrance &
Associates to conduct a telephone survey of 700 registered voters -
- 400 randomly selected voters across the state and an additional
300 registered Republicans. The total number of Republicans
interviewed in this study was n=428. Responses were gathered
February 11-13, 1991.
our most important findings are summarized in bullet form as:
o
The attitudes of the Republican primary electorate do not
differ significantly from those of the general election
audience, and that gives us a tremendous advantage in
terms of message welaction. The messages we communicate
to the primary voters can essentially be the same as the
ones we will use during the general election.
Even excluding black voters, a majority (50%) of those
over the age of 65 are Democrats. That means that as we
look toward those most likely to turn out on election
day, the ballot may shift by at least a percentage point
or two toward the Democrat candidate. In a state like
Kantucky, that is enough to swing the election.
only 35% of the electorate in Kentucky would describe
themselves as Republican. That is important in terms of
understanding how difficult it will be to put a coalition
together on election day -- even in an open-seat.
By about a 2 to 1 margin, voters in Kentucky feel that
things in the state are headed in the right direction.
Forty-eight percent (48%) feel that things are headed in
the right direction, while only 28% think that things are
off on the wrong track.
211 North Union Street, Suite 200, Alexandria, Virginia 22314 703-624-6681
-
BRI Affiliated Company
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of X
2
0
A plurality of Republican voters would like abortion to
be prohibited except in cases of rape, incest, or when
the life of the mother is in danger. A third of the
total electorate (33%) fit into this category as well.
o
The Kentucky state legislature has only recently passed
a $1.3 billion tax increase. When it comes to what
should be done about the tax situation, 59% of the voters
already think that some kind of new action needs to be
taken. Twenty-three percent (23%) think that the tax
increase should be out down to the level required by the
court to equalize education around the state. A 36%
plurality think that a partial reduction of the tax
increase is required. Positions on the tax issue will
remain volatile as the tax increase is implemented.
o
By far the most important attribute for the next Governor
to have is "honesty and trustworthiness." Sixty-two
percent (62%) of all voters think this attribute is
extremely important, while another 36% think it is very
important. Because most voters would consider Kentucky
government to be "bought" by special interests, it is not
difficult to see why honesty is a priority for the next
Governor,
o
In terms of the primary election, Larry Hopkins has #
substantial lead in awareness among the GOP voters. That
lead in awareness will give a false impression of
security on the primary ballot, since the ballot is a
"lagging" indicator.
IMAGE COMPARISON
(AMONG GOP VOTERS)
HOPKINS FORGY
&
4
Image
Favorable
46
24
Unfavorable
5
6
No Opinion
23
26
Never heard of
26
43
o
Brareton Jones is known to all but a third of the overall
electorate.
IMAGE COMPARISON
(AMONG ALL VOTERS)
HOPKINS
JONES
BAESLER
WILKINSON
POORE
$
&
&
%
k
Image
Favorable
42
31
27
30
22
Unfavorable
6
9
8
53
11
No Opinion
26
27
27
16
20
Never heard of
27
33
47
3
4B
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3
PRIMARY BALLOT COMPARISON
Larry Markins
Backer
ITTE
111
Brothing
Flayd Peors
Junes.
BE
IUI
ILL
Oslowed
ISSR
Deloratin
Laws THE
HIS
Martho
Undesided
Underided
Wildness
our PRIMARY
DEMOCRAT PRIMARY
PARKANCE & ASSOCIATES, bic.
141
WIGHT
D
Targeting the 34% who remain undecided 1s critical for
Hopkins in the GOP primary. These voters are likely to
be: 2nd and 4th C.D. residents; women, especially women
at home; 35-54 years of age) without a high school
education.
D
Given the margin of error within the survey, the race for
Governor is essentially tied at this time should the race
come down to Larry Hopkins and Brereton Jones.
GENERAL ELECTION BALLOT FOR GOVERNOR
HOPKINS
JONES
of
q
Education
of -
Lass than H.S.
33
51
H.S. graduate
36
46
Some college
47
33
College graduate
48
38
Total
40
43
Keeping in mind that some of these voters are more likely
to make up their minds later in a campaign, the following
groups are more likely to remain undecided to date:
Residents of the 1st, 4th & 7th C.D.s
Ticket-splitters
Women/45 and over
45-54 year-olds
As the table below indicates, building a winning
coalition begins with a careful assessment of our current
situation.
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4
MINIMUM WINNING COALITION
TARGET
PERCENT OF
TARGET
CONTRIBUTING
CUMULATIVE
GROUP
ELECTORATE
PERFORMANCE
PERCENTAGE
PERCENTAGE
Republican
35
90
32
32
Ticket-splitter
13
65
8
40
Cons. Democrat
25
40
10
50
Mod/Lib Democrat
21
20
2
52
Black
6
0
0
52
0
There seems to be some level of awareness among the GOP
primary electorate that Larry Forgy dropped out of the
race in 1987 at the last minute and that this was
damaging to the Party. The most devastating issue for
Forgy seems to be his support for public financing of
political campaigns with taxpayer dollars. An equally
difficult issue for Forgy is his employment in a coal
firm which overcharged a utility company -- resulting in
higher electric bills.
D
Both in terms of the overall electorate, and especially
among Republican voters, Senator Mitch McConnell is by
far the most potent endorsement imaginable. Fifty-six
percent (56%) of the general electorate and 69% of the
GOP electorate would be more likely to vote for a
candidate endorsed by Mitch McConnell.