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Originally Processed With FOIA(s): FOIA Number: 2009-0166-S 2009-0166-S FOIA MARKER This is not a textual record. This is used as an administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential Library Staff. Record Group/Collection: George H.W. Bush Presidential Records Collection/Office of Origin: Office of the President Series: Daily Files Subseries: OA/ID Number: 90732 Folder ID Number: 90732-001 Folder Title: Friday, October 30, 1992 Stack: Row: Section: Shelf: Position: G 35 2 6 O WHITE HOUSE COMMCTR URC-112 FRI 30 OCT 92 20:34 PG.02 daily 10/30 PM-Weinberger,220 House, Sitteriam, this Weinberger 10-30 0248 PM unberger, 220 URGENT new Weinberger Indictment Contradiots Bush on Itan-Contra BV LARRY MARGASAK- Associated Press Writer* NA HINGTON (AP) President Bu account of his role in the intra affair was contradict jay in a second indictment of Defense Secretary Cashar W berger. indictment, based on Weinberger's handwritten notes, said Bush attended d Jan. 7, 1986, meeting where President Reagan top aides discussed a straicht swap of arms for hostages an something Bush says he did know about. Fush has always maintained that he w the Reagan White House inding arms to Iran and knew that ne hostages were being from Lebanon, but didn't realize Lue U.S. was engaging in hostagee deals. nold no didn't know until mid December 1900 about the aims hootoges trados. dictment also reveals that Bush knew from the same meeting and Shultz opposed the Ir arm) sales. No notes directly contradict such on that point: Milt with president, Shultz, Poindexter, Bill Casey, Bd Meose, tice. President decided to ao with Tsraoli-Iranian offer release Cut 5 hostages in return for sale of 4000 TOWs to Iran sraol Genree Shultz + I opposed Bill Y, Ed Mecce t VP favored 38 did Poindoxter. Cabey was CIA director, Meese the attorney eral and dexter the national security adviser at the time. MAKE -10-92 1433EST BUSH LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY - PRESERVATION WHITE HOUSE COMMCTR THU 29 OCT 92 02:56 PG.01 TIME OF TRANSMISSION TIME OF RECEIPT WHITE HOUSE SITUATION ROOM PRECEDENCE: IMMEDIATE RELEASER: aB PRIORITY ROUTINE DTG: 290234Z OCT 92 MESSAGE NO. 8 CLASSIFICATION UNCLASSIFIED PAGES 5 FROM RobeRT E. GRAdy (NAME) (PHONE NUMBER) (ROOM NO.) MESSAGE DESCRIPTION TO (AGENCY) DELIVER TO DEPT/ROOM NO. PHONE NUMBER WARREN / MR. BAKER MR. BATES REMARKS: WRITE HOUSE Connorn OFFICE OF ENSIDENT STATE UNITED EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET WASHINGTON, D.C. 20503 1 October 28, 1992 MEMORANDUM TO SECRETARY JAMES BAKER DAVID BATES FROM: Robert E. Grady Paul Gilman Attached is the Central Valley Project (CA) side-by-side and explanatory note as requested. daily 10/30 COMPARISON OF TITLE XXXIV PROVISIONS IN H.R. 429 SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION 1. PG.03 Water for Fish & Wildlife - Miller-Bradley would have dedicated 1.5 million acre-feet of Central Valley Project (CVP) water for fish and wildlife purposes. This is about 20 percent of the total annual CVP water supply of 6 to 8 million acre-feet. The 1.5 million acre-feet could not have been reduced by more than 25 percent for dry years under any circumstances. Most farmers and urban users would have been subjected to greater water supply reductions for dry years. The final bill allows the up to 25 percent reduction for dry years to occur under more circumstances, and authorizes further reductions if public health or safety is affected. Note: Miller-Bradley was never a single, homogenous bill. The term is used here to 66:20 26 130 62 OH! mean the "worst" version of each relevant provision. 2. Citizen Suits - Miller-Bradley would have authorized any citizen -- environmentalist or farmer -- to commence a civil suit, alleging a failure of the Secretary to perform duties under the act. 3. Water Auction - The Miller-Bradley would have authorized the Secretary of the Interior to auction 100,000 acre-feet of CVP water for 20 years to municipal and industrial (M&I) users based exclusively on the highest bid. 4. Contract Renewals - There are almost 300 water contracts within CVP. Interior signed 40-year, fixed-price contracts with water users as various facilities were completed. The first group of contracts came up for renewal in 1989 in the Friant Unit of CVP (on the San Joaquin River near Fresno), and are currently the subject of litigation in Federal district court. Miller-Bradley would have prohibited the renewal of any contracts prior to completion of an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for CVP and a long list of additional environmental requirements. Miller-Bradley would have only permitted 1-year interim contracts pending EIS completion. WHI TE HOUSE COMACTR successive 2-year periods, if necessary) pending EIS completion. requirements. The final bill also allows interim contracts for 3 years (and upon request, following completion of the EIS, and a shorter list of environmental The final version of the bill quarantees an initial 25-year contract renewal period 5. New Contracts - Miller-Bradley would have prohibited any new contracts for water additional water for existing CVP contractors, with the exception of the auction or of users (i.e., for any water user without an existing contract for CVP water, prohibited from signing by appropriation bill language. Included among them is 850 Interior to sign several proposed new contracts, which the Secretary has been 100,000 acre-feet discussed above). The final bill permits the Secretary of the acre-feet Seymour. for the San Joaquin National Veterans' Cemetery supported by Senator 6. Voluntary Water Transfers of CVP Water - Miller-Bradley would have authorized voluntary water transfers subject to State law. Miller-Bradley contained less stringent conditions on water transfers than Senator Seymour, whose version bill essentially gave CVP water districts veto rights on any proposed transfer. The final water-districts may veto transfers in excess of 20 percent of total water contracted market-oriented (i.e, all transfers are subject to a right of first refusal, and provides significant protection for farmers and local communities, but is more from a given district). 7. Water The Pricing - Miller-Bradley would have established an inverted block price system. lowest price would have been in effect for the first 60 percent of contracted bill, the lowest rate remains in effect for deliveries up to 80 percent of the water, with prices increasing for each successive 20 percent increment. In the final contracted increments. amount. Price increases go into effect for the remaining two 10 percent budgets). based on a farmer's "ability-to-pay" (as calculated by Interior looking at farm be In addition, there is a provision that the maximum price charged would 8. Transfer CVP to State - At the request of Governor Wilson, the Department of the nearly complete. The MOA would establish a 3-year process to further evaluate the possible transfer of the CVP to the State. A draft Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) is Interior and the Governor's Office in March 1992 initiated discussions concerning would require Congressional authorization. transfer issue, including specific terms and conditions and price. Actual transfer -2- Fril 30 Our IC 20121 ru.02 daily 10/30 FACT PAPER 200730 P5: 44 The Weinberger Additional Indictment Key Foints: -- The Weinberger note adds no new facts to the record. -- Neither President Reagan nor then-Vice President Bush held the view that this was a straight "arms for hostages" proposal. Weinberger's note reflects his perspective -- and adds nothing to the public testimony he and Shultz gave more than five years ago. See, for example, the detailed account on pages 201-203 of the Congressional Report. -- The President has claimed only that he didn't understand at the time how strongly Shultz and Weinberger opposed the Iran initiative, and did not understand that there had been a "raging fight" over it. Nothing in the note resolves this "failure of communication." -- The President has always acknowledged that he supported President Reagan's decision to undertake the Iran initiative. Background: Because the trial judge dismissed an obstruction of Congress count from the Weinberger indictment, the Independent Counsel restyled it as a false statement (18 U.S.C. 1001) -- not as before, that he withheld his notes, but that he falsely claimed he had made no notes of the meetings where the Iran initiative was discussed. In fact, he had made the note of the January 7, 1986 meeting, which is quoted in the indictment. (He may have made notes of other meetings, but the Independent Counsel chose this one.) Weinberger's note of the January 7, 1986 meeting reads as follows: "Met with President, Shultz, Poindexter, Bill Casey, Ed Meese, in Oval Office - President decided to go with Israeli-Iranian offer to release 5 hostages in return for sale of 4000 TOWS to Iran by Israel - George Shultz & I opposed - Bill Casey, Ed Meese & VP favored -- as did Poindexter." WHITE HOUSE COMMUTR FRI 30 UCI IC 2:30 PG.01 daily 10/30 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON fire October 30, 1992 MEMORANDUM FOR SECRETARY BAKER MARLIN FITZWATER ROBERT B. ZOELLICK From: Robert Economic E. Facts Grady BG Re: Attached is a memo from Chairman Boskin. Key points for the President (some of which are not included in the memorandum) are: - Clinton's charts left out the early Truman period (negative growth) and the late Bush period (positive growth). [This is the main import of the Boskin memo.] - The Bush record is far better than the most recent Democratic President: - In the 1978 to 1982 recession caused by President Carter's policies, the economy actually shrunk in real terms. In contrast, the economy has grown by about 4.4% in real terms from the 1988 average GDP -- despite the intervening recession. - 1980 was the single greatest year in post-war history of loss of average family income. Real mean family income fell by 3.4% in 1980. - Inflation in 1980 averaged 13.5 percent. This year, it is running at less than 3 percent. - President Carter's policies caused interest rates to rise to over 21 percent. Today, they are just above 6 percent. - In this global slowdown, the U.S. is doing better than either Japan or Germany: - In the last quarter, the U.S. grew twice as fast as Japan. Real economic growth in Germany was negative. - The U.S. has surpassed Japan and Germany as the world's number one exporter. - The U.S. has the highest per capita income and the most productive workers in the world. - We must increase jobs and economic growth still more: - The Clinton plan will destroy jobs. - The Bush plan will increase jobs. WH1 IE HOUSE COMMCTR FRI 30 OCT 92 22:31 PG.02 EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20500 October 29, 1992 THE CHAIRMAN MEMORANDUM TO SECRETARY JAMES A. BAKER, III FROM: MICHAEL J. BOSKIN RE: Clinton Charts from Larry King Show 0 Since the President is due to appear on the Larry King Show Friday night, it is extremely important that he have a response to the Clinton charges/charts from the Wednesday night show with Governor Clinton. This memo and the attached charts are a first cut at doing so. 0 One of Governor Clinton's charts purported to show that economic growth per person under President Bush has been the worst of any post-WWII President and had been negative. This chart was correct, except for two very important points. The data used to represent President Bush's term conveniently ended in 1991 and ignored the stronger growth experienced thus far in 1992. The data used to represent President Truman's term conveniently began in 1948, thereby omitting his first term, which included two years of falling output as the economy adjusted to the post World War II demobilization. o The CEA attempted in Chart 1 (attached) to duplicate Clinton's chart. The measure of economic growth used in Clinton's chart was not specified. The most straightforward measure would be growth in GDP and, in fact, this tracks closely, though not exactly, with Clinton's chart. Chart 2 (attached) corrects for the two omissions from the Clinton chart. - Using the most recent data, specifically, including the first three quarters of 1992, shows output per person to have been approximately flat--not declining as Clinton's chart showed--over the Bush Administration. The first term of the Truman Administration is included so that the data begin in 1945 rather than in 1948. The economy suffered a wrenching decline in 1945-1946 as the U.S. went through a dramatic 2 defense build down--just as our economy today is going through a defense build-down. This chart helps draw the parallel between the short-term economic difficulties of winning the Second World War and winning the Cold War. In brief summary, in answer to the charges that the Bush Administration has had the worst growth per person, and has even been negative, of any since Herbert Hoover, the President can confidently say this is clearly wrong: Growth has been too sluggish in my first term, but it was much worse in Truman's first term, and there is an important parallel between them--in both cases we had to work through the difficulties of a major defense build-down. And as in President Truman's second term, we are now poised for more rapid and sustained growth. Attachments Chart 1 Clinton's Version: As of 10/29/92 Real Per Capita GDP Growth Post World War II Presidents Percent change, annual rate 5 4 3.8 3.6 3 2.4 2.0 1.9 2 1.7 1 0.6 0.2 0 -0.3 -1 Truman* Eisenhower Kennedy Johnson Nixon Ford Carter Reagan Bush** Source: Department of Commerce. Note: Figures for Truman, Eisenhower use GNP in 1982 dollars. * Figures for Truman 1948-52, ignoring decline in first term. ** 1989-91 only, omitting the growth of 1992. Chart 2 Corrected Version: As of 10/29/92 Real Per Capita GDP Growth Post World War II Presidents Percent change, annual rate 6 3.8 4 3.6 2.4 2.0 1.7. 1.9 2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -7.9 -10 Truman Truman Eisenhower Kennedy Johnson Nixon Ford Carter Reagan Bush (First term) (Second term) Source: Department of Commerce. Note: Figures for Bush use Blue Chip consensus forecast for fourth quarter 1992. Figures for Truman, Eisenhower use GNP in 1982 dollars. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20500 THE CHAIRMAN October 29, 1992 MEMORANDUM TO SECETARY JAMES A. BAKER, III FROM: MICHAEL J. BOSKIN the RE: Useful Chart on the Economy for the Larry King Show o The President will probably want to have his own charts for Friday night's Larry King Show. The attached chart might be helpful. It shows that the economy is improving steadily and is on the right track. It compares the three quarters of recession with the slow but positive growth in the last three quarters of 1991 and the stronger growth in first three quarters of 1992. The clear visual implication is that the economy is growing and that the economy is on the right track. This graph should not be used to argue that the economy is growing strongly, or that the President is satisfied with this growth. Attachment Improving and on the Right Track Change in GDP (Annual Rate) 10/29/92 3 2.4 2 1.2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -2.9 Three Quarters Last Three Quarters First Three Quarters of Recession of 1991 of 1992 -4 Source: Department of Commerce SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 19-30-92 :10:24PM ; ;# 2 a1076reute И W AM-BUSH-IRANARMS 10-30 0158 ZAMARIA AM-BUSH-IRANARMS BUSH SAYS NOTHING NEW IN IRAN-ARMS CHARGE 536 RACINE, Wis., Reuter - President Bush said Friday there WES nothing new in a note that put him at III 1986 White House meeting where the arms for hostages deal with Iran was discussed. The note From Former Defense Secretary Casper Weinberger was released by the Iran-Contra independent counsel's office Friday as part of a new indictment against Weinberger. Democrat Bill Clinton said the note contradicted Bush's claim that he was ' out of the loop'' about the Iran-Contra affair, but Bush rejected Clinton's charge. ''It isn't anything new,' Bush said in an interview on Cable News Network's `Larry King Live That's all been testified to over and over again. It is absolutely absurd. Bush said he had said many times that he supported President Reagan's actions in selling arms to Iran but did not know about the details, such as diverting money from the arms sales to the Contras fighting the Sandanistas in Nicaragua. REUTER Reut21:21 10-30 SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 19-30-92 ;10:24PM ; Date: 10/30/92 Time: 21:57 Weinberger Notes Contradict Bush Statements on Iran-Contra WASHINGTON (AP) A new indictment of former Defense Secretary Caspar W. Weinberger on Friday contradicted President Bush's claim he never knew that arms were being traded for hostages in the Iran-Contra affair or that two Cabinet members were opposed to the deal. Bush claimed there was nothing new in the indictment, the timing of which he called "peculiar." Aides noted that it was revealed four days before the presidential election. Democrat Bill Clinton said the indictment showed Bush "has not been telling the truth'' about what he knew of the Iran-Contra affair. "This is the smoking gun, said Clinton's running mate, Sen. Al Gore. But Bush said, "If there is a smoking gun out there, I'd have been hauled up by one of those Senate committees" or the Iran-Contra prosecutors long before. Prosecutors, however, discovered the notes only last year, long after the congressional inquiries ended. "I have told the truth, Bush insisted on CNN's '`Larry King Live. The indictment was based on Weinberger's handwritten notes of a Jan. 7, 1986, meeting in which President Reagan, then-Vice President Bush, Cabinet members and presidential aides discussed a straight swap of arms for hostages with Iran. The indictment, obtained by the independent counsel investigating the Iran-Contra scandal, maintained that Bush knew from that meeting that Weinberger and former Secretary of State George Shultz opposed the Iranian arms sales. Weinberger's note said: "Met with president, Shultz, Poindexter, Bill Casey, Ed Meese, in oval office. President decided to go with Israeli-Iranian offer to release our 5 hostages in return for sale of 4000 TOWs to Iran by Israel George Shultz + I opposed Bill Casey, Ed Meese + VP favored as did Poindexter.' TOWs are antitank missiles. Bush has said he knew the White House was sending arms to Iran and that some hostages were being freed from Lebanon. But he said, on ABC-TV's Nightline on June 9, 1988, it "never became clear to me'' that there was an arms-for-hostages swap until he was briefed in December 1986 a month after the operation became public by the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee. He reiterated that Friday. In a television interview in Racine, Wis., hours after the indictment was announced, Bush said, ''There's nothing contradictory in there of what I've said ... I know nothing contradicts what I've said under oath. So it's a little flurry here." Casey was CIA director, Meese the attorney general and John Poindexter the national security adviser at the time. Bush told The Washington Post on Aug. 6, 1987: "If I'd have sat there and heard George Shultz and cap express it (opposition) strongly, maybe I would have had a stronger view. But when you don't know something, it's hard to react. ... We were not in the loop.' SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 19-30-92 10:26PM ; ;# 4 And in his own 1987 autobiography, ``Looking Forward, Bush wrote: "As it turned out, George Shultz and Cap Weinberger had serious doubts, too. If I had known that and asked the President to call a meeting of the NSC, he might have seen the project in a different light, as a gamble doomed to fail. The NSC is the National Security Council. In a separate television interview in Wisconsin, Bush changed the emphasis from those earlier assertions. "I did know of the objections,' he said flatly for the first time, adding, "but I didn't know how strongly.' "I knew they had reservations, Bush said of Shultz and Weinberger. "I didn't know there was a raging fight ... They weren't shouting and yelling, Bush said of the two Cabinet secretaries. Bush spokesman Marlin Fitzwater maintained to reporters on Air Force One, flying from a campaign stop in St. Louis to Milwaukee, that the only legally questionable part of the Iran-Contra plan was the diversion of proceeds from the Iran arms sales to the Contra rebels in Nicaragua, and Bush ''didn't know about the diversion of funds.' Clinton, who has made Bush's truthfulness about the Iran-Contra affair an issue, said the indictment "clearly shows that President Bush has not been telling the truth when he says he was out of the loop. He said it shows that Bush "knew and approved of President Reagan's secret deal to swap arms for hostages. ''President Bush says this election is about trust, character and judgment, Clinton said. "He has seriously called into question those issues and now has to answer your questions on all three counts,' Fitzwater questioned the indictment's timing, just days before the election, saying, "It does seem mighty suspicious that the Clinton people are trying to turn it into something. But Mary Belcher, spokeswoman for Independent Counsel Lawrence E. Walsh, said there was no political motive involved. White House Counsel C. Boyden Gray has written two articles in recent weeks attacking the news media's coverage of Bush's role in the arms-for-hostages issue. In one article, Gray acknowledged that Bush had attended the Jan. 7, 1986 meeting. But Gray then suggested that Bush was not present for the part of the meeting when Shultz and Weinberger voiced their objections. Gray did this by relying on the recollection of Reagan, who has stated that Bush wasn't present during the part of the meeting when Shultz and Weinberger were complaining. Weinberger was charged in the new grand jury indictment with one felony count of making false statements to Congress about whether he took notes relevant to its investigation of the Iran-Contra affair. Including the new indictment, he faces trial Jan. 5 on three false statement and two perjury charges. Each charge carries a maximum penalty of five years in prison and $250,00 in fines. Bush has criticized Walsh's $32.8 million investigation as too lengthy and too expensive. Walsh said in September that he was closing the criminal investigation, but would proceed with the prosecutions already begun. AP-NY-10-30-92 2155EST SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 19-30-92 :10:27PM ; ;# 5 NETWORK NEWS SUMMARY for Friday Evening, October 30, 1992 CLINTON CAMPAIGN/IRAN ARMS ABC's Peter Jennings: The question of truth and character came up again today for President Bush. The President has always denied knowing that the Reagan-Bush Administration was trading arms for hostages with the Iranians in 1986. "I was," he's always said, "out of the loop." Today a note by then-Secretary of Defense Weinberger puts Mr. Bush at an Oval Office meeting where a specific deal, missiles for hostages, was discussed and approved. The note says: "President decided to go with Israeli-Iranian offer to release our five hostages in return for sale of 4,000 TOWs to Iran by Israel. George Shultz and I opposed. Bill Casey, Ed Meese and V.P. favored." The note was released by the special prosecutor, who was seeking a new indictment of Mr. Weinberger for lying to Congress about the Iran-contra affair. Gov. Clinton's campaign said this was the smoking gun which shows the President has been lying. ABC's Chris Bury: This afternoon, the Governor used the Iran- contra revelations to attack the President on the very issues Bush has raised so often against him. (Gov. Clinton: "President Bush says this election is about trust, character and judgement. He has seriously called into question those issues and now has to answer your questions on all three counts.") Clinton said questions about his behavior as a student cannot be compared with questions about Bush's behavior as Vice President. (Clinton: "He has vigorously attacked me for going to the Soviet Union as a student or my actions with regard to the draft. This deals with what he did as Vice President.") For Clinton it was a full day of attack and counter-attack in states that have become more important in a tighter race. In New Jersey, Clinton noted the President yesterday had called Al Gore crazy. (Clinton on airport tarmac: "What's crazy is an Administration that produces declining incomes, higher unemployment, 100,000 people a month losing their health insurance.") Later, at a rain-soaked rally in Pittsburgh, Clinton repeated Bush's attack lines in the belief they will backfire. (Clinton: "Then he called us 'bozos.' Well, all I can say is Bozo makes people laugh and Bush makes people cry and America's going to be laughing on Tuesday." Crowd cheers.) The Clinton strategy has always assumed a tight race at the finish. Now his fortunes hinge on turning out the right blocs of voters in the right states. Campaign field workers are concentrating get out the vote efforts among young people, blacks and women especially. And the remaining tv budget is being spent in only 20 states where the race is traditionally close. And Clinton plans to visit at least 11 of them in the next three days during a marathon campaign trip that will have him running nearly around the clock until Tuesday. (Clinton: "I'm gonna run like the underdog.") From here on out, Clinton says his campaign is not political science; it's combat. (ABC-Lead) SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 19-30-92 ;10:28PM ; 6 White House News Summary Friday, October 30, 1992 -- 2 NBC's Andrea Mitchell: The Iran-contra developments were a gift to Bill Clinton, who has been struggling to counteract Bush's attack on his credibility. Campaigning in Pittsburgh, Clinton quickly interrupted his schedule to pounce on the revelations in the Weinberger indictment. (Gov, Clinton, to reporters: "Today's disclosure that President Bush knew and approved of the arms for hostages deal with Iran not only directly contradicts the President's claims, it diminishes the credibility of the presidency. Secretary Weinberger's notes clearly show that President Bush has not been telling the truth when he says he was out of the loop. In Maine, Al Gore also attacked. (Sen. Gore, to reporters: "I think it's a real bombshell. The memorandum is a real smoking gun. I think it devastates his claim to the trust of the American people.") The news comes at a good time for Clinton. His lead was narrowing. He re-visited Pennsylvania, a state that should be solidly his, and will return twice more in the next two days. (TV Coverage of Clinton at rally, holding up hands of Sen. Wofford and candidate Yaekel.) (Reporter: "Are you worried about -- II Clinton: "Well, let me say this. I think we have to win Pennsylvania. I've worked hard here and we're gonna keep working hard here. I'm gonna be back.") Wherever he goes, his core message is that he represents a needed change from Bush economics. He even worked it into a response to Bush yesterday calling him Bozo and Al Gore crazy. (Clinton to crowd: "I'll tell you what I think is crazy. I think crazy is unemployment going up and incomes going down.' Clinton has made light of Bush's latest attack, thinking they make the President look foolish. (Clinton: "Then he called us bozos. Well, all I can say is Bozo makes people laugh and Bush makes people cry and America's gonna be laughing on Tuesday." Crowd cheers.) But Clinton is not laughing yet, not with the race tightening up and the recent momentum in Bush's favor. (Clinton: "We've gotta keep trying to break through with our message of hope and change. To do that, I've got to press harder, work longer, hit stronger. And that's what I intend to do. I'm gonna run like the underdog.") Running like an underdog means a nonstop 24-hour tour of at least nine states on Monday and Tuesday, hammering Bush on the economy and now Iran-contra. (NBC-3) CBS's Richard Threlkeld: All along, the Clinton campaign has been trying to make an issue of George Bush's credibility. The revelations today about Iran-contra played right into that theme. (Gov. Clinton: "Today's disclosure that President Bush knew and approved of the arms for hostages deal with Iran not only directly contradicts the President's claims, it diminishes the credibility of the presidency. It raises the question, first and most importantly, about whether he's told the truth in this campaign and for the last five years. And secondly, raises the whole question of his support for the policy. But the far more important thing is whether for five years he's been telling the American people something about his conduct of foreign policy as Vice President which was simply not true.") SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 19-30-92 10:30PM ; ;# 7 White House News Summary Friday, October 30, 1992 -- 3 Threlkeld continues: (Sen. Gore: "We now have the evidence, the smoking gun memorandum, the clear proof that what George Bush has said about his role in creating one of the worst, most embarrassing catastrophes in American foreign policy is simply untrue. How can he now ask the American people to trust him?") Despite this bombshell, the Clinton campaign still thinks this election will turn on the issue of the economy, and that's the issue that Clinton will be stressing in a campaign marathon the next three days that will take him to more than a dozen states, winding up at dawn on election day in Denver. (CBS-2) PRESIDENT'S CAMPAIGN/IRAN-CONTRA CBS's Dan Rather: There is new written evidence tonight concerning what President Bush knew and when he knew about the secret deal that sent some of America's best missiles to Iran's Ayatollah Khomeini. The grand jury evidence raises new questions about whether Mr. Bush is telling the truth. CBS's Rita Braver: An embarrassing revelation for George Bush. Evidence released for the first time today contradicts his previous statement that he was out of the loop on the Reagan Administration's deal to ship arms to Iran in exchange for American hostages. New charges returned in the ongoing case against former Secretary Weinberger detail Weinberger's handwritten notes of a meeting Bush attended January 7, 1986. Weinberger writes that President Reagan decided to approve a scheme to release hostages in return for the sale of 4,000 TOW missiles to Iran by Israel. Weinberger opposed. Others, including Vice President Bush, favored the deal. (Anthony Lewis, columnist: "This is further very strong evidence that George Bush knew all about the trading of arms for hostages, which he has consistently denied. For years, over and over again, Mr. Bush claimed neither he nor President Reagan knew the details. (Vice President Bush, December 3, 1986: "The President is absolutely convinced that he did not swap arms for hostages." President Bush has changed his story several times, and in fact earlier this month appeared to admit he knew something about the deal. (Katie Couric: "That you knew about the arms-for-hostages." President: "Yes, and have said so all along.") But in that same interview, the President also denied being at key meetings, including the one in the note released today, where Weinberger opposed the trade. Columnist Lewis, who has been tracking the President's Tran-contra connection, said it's ironic Bush is trying to make Clinton's truthfulness an issue. (Levis: "It's the President of the United States deliberately, knowingly, forcefully telling you an untruth year after year, month after month. That's going to destroy our faith in our political system.") The independent counsel insists the release of the note was timed to meet the schedule for Weinberger's trial, not to embarrass the President in the final days of the campaign. SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 ;19-30-92 10:31PM ; ;# 8 White House News Summary Friday, October 30, 1992 -- 4 Rather: The grand jury evidence appears to be at variance with what then-Vice President Bush said in an interview on this broadcast in 1988. The President sent one of his spokesmen out today to say there is nothing new in the Weinberger note. CBS's Susan Spencer: The Bush campaign was both very angry and very defensive about this story, saying that any claim that this somehow contradicts Mr. Bush's assertion that he was not in the loop on the arms sale is "pure political hogwash." Aides insisted the President has answered every question on this, that nothing has changed, and that everything in this memo was already known. So when asked about the new memo, spokesman Fitzwater had this somewhat odd reaction. (TV Coverage of Fitzwater boarding plane, waving hat.) The campaign may try to laugh it off, but Mr. Bush does not need questions about his truthfulness while he's trying to convince voters that he, unlike Clinton, is a man of honor and trust, a point he made today at a surprisingly-small afternoon rally in Missouri. (President Bush: "What the President does reflects all around the world. People judge our country to a large degree by that. They are interlocked, and I don't believe that you can have a person in the White House who's gonna try to be on all sides of every issue, flip-flopping. The pattern of deceit is wrong for America." Aides said none of this would lessen Mr. Bush's enthusiasm for the character issue. Added Fitzwater: I hate to accuse anyone of politics, but it does seem mighty suspicious that the Clinton people would try to stir this thing up. (CBS-Lead) NEC's Tom Brokaw: And tonight, new material that directly contradicts President Bush's claim that he was out of the loop in the Iran-contra affair. A handwritten note from Weinberger. NBC's John Cochran: In the final days of the campaign, the last thing George Bush needs is a reminder of the arms-for-hostages deal with Iran. (TV Coverage of the President at podium being cheered by placard- waving crowd.) While Bush was trying to convince voters they can't believe Bill Clinton, his own credibility was in question. Bush has always said he was out of the loop of information when President Reagan approved the arms-for-hostages swap. But a federal indictment of Weinberger places Bush at a key meeting. Weinberger's notes about a Jan. 7 1986 meeting say: "George Shultz and I opposed. Bill Casey, Ed Meese and Vice President Bush favored." Two weeks ago, Bush told Katie Couric he was not present. (President Bush: "What was asked was whether I knew that Casper Weinberger and Shultz, how strongly the opposed it. And I said to that, there were two key meetings where they almost got into a shouting match, I am told, that I did not attend. I don't believe there's anything in there that's gonna contradict the $40 million that has been spent on these hearings and I don't think anything - - I know nothing contradicts what I have said under oath.") The Bush camp hopes the Weinberger note will not slow down the President's advance in some polls. He started the day in Al Gore's home state, Tennessee, where independent polls show Bush very close to Clinton. SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 19-30-92 10:33PM ; ;# 9 White House News Summary Friday, October 30, 1992 -- 5 Coohran continues: (TV Coverage of the President shaking hands with cheering supporters.) But this afternoon, he was in Missouri, which Bush aides tell NBC News is probably a lost cause. (TV Coverage of the President autographing supporters' placards, shaking hands with cheering crowd.) The party's internal polls show Clinton leading by double digits. Bush needs every state he can get, including Alaska's three votes. Today, Bush may have picked up some support there by easing restrictions on commercial development of Alaskan wetlands. The Bush campaign figures most environmentalists will vote for Clinton and Gore, whom Bush calls "Ozone." (President at rally: "Hey, listen. Put Ozone in there and every worker is going -- who depends on reasonable balance between the environment and growth and business is gonna be out of work.") But Bush did not repeat earlier references to his opponents as far out or crazy or bozos. His aides want him to continue attacking with gusto but not at the cost of sounding undignified or unpresidential. (NBC-2) Jennings: President Bush's schedule is not quite so frantic, but he will also be on the road full time from now until election day. Mr. Bush started this day by accusing Clinton of what he calls trample-down economics. He ended it by having to answer those new questions about his role in Tran-contra. ABC's Brit Hume: The wildness of yesterday's campaigning gave way today to a more solemn and basic message from the President. He stopped calling his opponents bozos, something even Mrs. Bush said she disapproved of. Instead, he framed his direct appeals for votes in terms of his own record. (President Bush: "Ideas, action, character. I believe I. have demonstrated, I certainly have tried to demonstrate all three, and so I ask you, go to the polls on November 3rd, give me your vote and let us lead America to new heights of prosperity." Cheering.) In Nashville earlier, he made a similar plea based on his decisions in sending U.S. forces into combat. (President: "It is a responsibility I believe I have fulfilled with honor and duty and above all, integrity." Applause. "That is your call on November 3rd. Then the polls and the pundits don't matter anymore, and, God bless 'em, it's all up to the people. The President got a little boost today from Democratic Gov. Donald Schaefer of Maryland, who came to St. Louis to announce he's endorsing Mr. Bush. But there also was the persistent issue of the Iran arms sales, fueled today by the release of that Weinberger note. The President insisted that it was all old stuff that had been fully investigated. (President: "There is nothing contradictory in there of what I've said, and I don't believe there is anything in there that's gonna contradict the $40 million that has been spent on these hearings." The questions raised by that Weinberger note may not be new, but its public release is. It may not prove anything; the President has always said he missed part of that meeting. But it gives the whole issue new life, hardly a help to him as he seeks re-election on the issues of character and trust. (ABC-2) SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 :19-30-92 ;10:34PM ; #10 White House News Summary Friday, October 30, 1992 -- 6 PEROT CAMPAIGN NBC's Jim Cummins reports Ross Perot is taping the last of those famous 30-minute commercials to air Sunday and Monday night on all three networks. This weekend, Perot is campaigning in public for a change, with trips to Florida, Missouri, California and back to Texas for a rally Monday. He's been more likely to attack Republicans. (Perot on Larry King Live: "This is the same party that gave us Watergate. This is the same party that gave us Iran-contra. This is the same party that's up to its ears in Iraq-gate now At the same time, Perot seems to go out of his way to avoid attacking Clinton. For instance, James Stockdale has harshly criticized Clinton and other war protesters, accusing them of prolonging the war, resulting in the deaths of thousands of American troops. In an interview with David Frost, airing tonight on PBS, Perot is asked whether he agrees with Stockdale. (Perot to David Frost: "Let's assume that privately I agree completely. I'm not going to make that a campaign issue.") But Perot will make an issue of George Bush in the closing days of this campaign, saying a vote for Bush is a wasted vote. (NBC-4) CBS's Bill Lagattuta reports the Perot campaign is privately delighted at the timing of this Irangate development. They say it makes their candidate look more credible when he attacks the party of George Bush. (Ross Perot on Larry King Live: "This is the same party that gave us Watergate. This is the same party that gave us Iran-contra. This is the same party that's up to its ears in Iraq-gate now. Revisiting his political birthplace last night, Perot also talked about his plan for the future, which sounded more like a plan to one day have a plan. (CBS-3) POLLS Brokaw: This is a closing act that has everyone on the edge of their seats. We go into the final weekend of the campaign with most of the national polls of likely voters indicating a very tight race. And with new questions tonight for President Bush about Iran-contra. First, the polls. CNN-USA Today have a 1-point spread among likely voters (Clinton 41%; Bush 40%; Perot 14%.). ABC's likely voters show a 4-point lead for Clinton (Clinton 41%; Bush 37%; Perot 17%). But a poll by CBS gives Clinton a 10-point lead. (NBC-Lead) Jennings reports the latest ABC News national poll taken over the last two days shows Clinton leading President Bush by four points, 41-37%. That's down three for Clinton since yesterday, up two for Bush. (ABC-3) Rather reports that according to the poll, which was taken before today's Iran-contra revelations, the Clinton-Gore ticket appeared to be the choice of 45% of likely voters; Bush-Quayle 10 points behind and Perot-Stockdale with 15%. SENT By:Xerox Telecopier 7020 19-30-92 10:35PM ; i#11 White House News Summary Friday, October 30, 1992 -- 7 CBS's Mark Phillips reports there are some worrying numbers for the President in the poll about whether people believe what he says. The poll shows twice as many people don't believe the President on Iraq-gate as do. That's fewer people than believe Clinton's version of his Vietnam war draft history; here the public is split between belief and disbelief. A general tightening in the polls means this race, when transferred to the state-by-state electoral college map, is getting a lot closer. Some of the big prize states the Clinton camp was counting on are now in play. New Jersey and Ohio are a tossup; Michigan is tightening; Texas and Florida are now leaning toward Bush. (CBS-4) UNDECIDED VOTERS Jennings updates on the undecided voters ABC has been tracking in New York, North Carolina and California. Eight of 10 in New York said they would vote for Clinton; the idea of change was appealing to them. The group in Charlotte, N.C. is still having a hard time choosing. Five are still undecided. But one will vote for Perot and three for Bush. The President has not convinced anyone as yet in the group from Northern California. Four remain undecided, Clinton got three and three think Perot's straight talk and business experience are what the country needs. (Totals -- Clinton 36; Perot 16; Bush 13; Undecided 30) (ABC-5) Rather interviews three voters. One woman is "vehemently against" President Bush and is now an enthusiastic Clinton supporter. A man said that given the reality of the least of "three evils, " he will go with Clinton because he does not trust Bush. Another man says he trusts President Bush, recounts some of the President!s accomplishments, and says he does not trust Clinton. Newsweek's Joe Klein says the race is "fairly stable, with Clinton maintaining his lead. Klein says the President has not been addressing the economy very directly over the last month, which may be part of his problem. (CBS-8) VILLALPANDO INVESTIGATION ABC's Bill Greenwood reports on the investigation of Treasurer Villalpando for allegedly receiving money from a company after becoming Treasurer. Authorities are still gathering evidence. She denies wrongdoing. (NBC-8, ABC-6) HEALTH INSURANCE NBC's Lisa Myers reports from Austin, Texas on how the candidates' health plans would affect people. Perot has no plan, but promises one if elected. Bush and Clinton have vague plans with sharply different approaches. (President Bush: "My program is this: Keep the government as far out of it as possible. Bush emphasizes individual choice. He'd give workers tax credits or vouchers to help them buy private insurance. But there is a problem for middle income families. - SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 19-30-92 :10:37PM ; ;#12 White House News Summary Friday, October 30, 1992 -- 8 Myers continues: Critics say as many as 25 million Americans would still lack insurance under the Bush plan. (Gov, Clinton: "Under out plan, health care will become a right, not a privilege.") Clinton's plan would provide insurance for everyone by requiring employers to cover their workers. Most workers like that idea. Many small business owners don't. Clinton says small businesses will get tax credits to ease the burden. Still, workers worry the burden will be too great. (Worker: "Then we'll all be without jobs. Then we don't have jobs and we don't have insurance. So I don't like it.") Bush and Clinton agree on the need to reduce spiraling health costs. Clinton's solution: government intervention to control health care spending. Bush says that will reduce quality and bureaucratize the system. Bush's prescription: more competition. Clinton says that won't work. Both candidates claim they can save enough by reigning in health care costs to pay for insurance for tens of millions Americans who need it. Experts say in the short term, at least, that's fantasy. These workers believe that one way or another, the money will come from them. (NBC-7) HOME SALES Rather reports the Commerce Department says sales of new homes fell 1% in September, the first outright drop in five months. For the first nine months of the year, sales are more than 20% above the same period of last year. (CBS-6) ### Presidential Phone Calls Aboard Air Force One 3 THE THE UNITED DATE: 10-30 TIME: incoming / outgoing WITH: AI Austin SUBJECT: talk wife AM N hunting now see if I can go into you FOLLOW UP: one thing he did - shor 10AM Sundy cryst. Cathedial positive for you Hell try r get N/A on tool m/m " BUSH LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY - GEORGE BUSH HANDWRITING daily 10/30 THE WHITE house WASHINGTON Rose, Andy Asket that I PASS this Alons to you. Wch. SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 10-29-92 :11:22AM : 2177534712- 2024562380:# 1 National Committeement Harrid B. Smith, Jr. National Committeewings Mary Ju Aredi Illinois Republican histr Handquarters 320 houth Fourth hereet Secretary Ronald C. hmith State Committee Springfield. II. 62701-1702 217/525-0011 Treasurer FAX # 1-217-753-4712 Thomas H. kwing Albert M. Jourdan Miki Cooper France Chairman Chairman Chairwoman Alian J. Hamilton STATE CENTRAL COMMITTEE FAX (217) 753-4712 181 Department WILLIAM 0 STEWART ver Limited and DISTRICT EAM PANAYOTOVICH Codes FACSIMILE 3ml Delhar JAMES: DVOHAK TRANSMITTAL FORM 4th District ALEX A UWANGLLIS Cheesen AMOUNT TO: ROSE ZAMARIA 5th DISTRICT FAX #: ALLAN CARR GROW am Denner KATHLEEN L WOJCIN - FROM: ANDY FOSTER 72h JEAN SOUARD we was DATE: pin Detrel 10/29/92 TIME: JAMES 4 BATTISTA Charge pm District J ROBERT BARR SUBJECT: Jim OBERNETTER ARTICLE 10m DAVID L. BROWN weren. 11m Diatrict WILLIAM K DAMMETER VEA- Comman Total number of pages (including this one) : 2 12TH During: ALBERT M. JOURDAN Charmas. If not received, call at 217/525-0011. Accountary 13th Patient RONALD C. SMITH Special LORDAN COMMENTS: THOUGHT you WOULD LIKE TO 14th District DALLAS INGEMUNBON - : 15th Defici SEE THIS - FROM TODAY'S CHICAGO THOMAS V. EWING immune Memor 1AM District 7DM HAWES ",IIt' SUN-TIMES OP/ED PAGE. WE'RE NOT :7in Dising JRIPL HELLOGG 1 JL SURPRISED ! HOPE ALL IS WELL. 18th Diatrict MARYANCE ERICKSON. A 19th District MARDE SODEMANT Charges 20m Destrict DON W ADAMS Americant 2181 District ROL STEPHENS 22nz District MA coopen SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 10-29-92 :11:22AM 2177534712- 2024562380:# 2 CHICAGO SUN-TIMES, THURSDAY, OCTOBER 29, 1992 Honesty Pays Off For Genuine Hero aybe Jim Oberwetter M going, the conspiracy nuts (Oliver should be running for Stone, et al) who would have us president. believe there's a microphone be. If you've already forgotten who hind every lampshade and a tape Jim Oberwetter is, you've proven recorder wired to every phone. once again that the good guys get Or will it? no recognition, or at least none For most people, Oberwetter that is as lasting as four days. helped disprove Perot's spying Jim Oberwetter, a modern hero, charge. But for the conspiracy is the Bush campaign chairman in nuts, it'll be only further proof of Texas who was too honest to fall the existence of the Big One. for an FBI sting in which he was Here, let me beat them to it by offered audio tapes and offering the most cock- documents from Ross eyed, off-the-wall ex- Perot's offices for planation of why Ober- $2,500. wetter's refusal to buy Perot had provided the tapes proves that a the FBI with the tapes conspiracy exists. and documents as part See, it's all a set-up. of an undercover oper- If Oberwetter had ation to check out Per- bought the tapes, he ot's claim he was being would have been arrest- spied on by the Bush ed, and his complicity campaign. Oberwetter, in the web of spying incredulous when he was approached by an Dennis would have been ex- posed It would have undercover agent he Byrne meant, too, that a law called Cowboy Bob," enforcement agency asked: Haven't you ever was doing its job by heard of Watergate? cracking the conspiracy. After throwing the creep out, But, you see, that's not possible, Oberwetter picked up the phone according to the conspiracy theo- and reported the crime to the rists, because everyone is sup- local constabulary. posedly a part of the conspiracy. It would be most gratifying now Ergo, the conspiracy never can be to see the local constabulary turn exposed, not by normal, legal around and try to nail the FBI for means, anyway. entrapment, for going after some- Or think of it this way: Ober- one whom the FBI apparently wetter protected the conspiracy by didn't have enough evidence on to proving that it doesn't exist. By even get a search warrant. It refusing to buy the tapes, he makes me shudder to think what helped demonstrate that Perot's Oberwetter's fate might have been spying charges were false. if he had not immediately report- But, you protest, Oberwetter ed Cowboy Bob's offer. then would have had to have "These people had no probable known in advance that the offer of cause to come calling on me, the: tapes was actually an FBI Oberwetter said. "Outrage is a sting or he might have purchased word that understates my feel the tapes. Well, that's easily ex- ings. Mine, too. plained: Oberwetter was tipped It occurs to me that with many off about the sting by the CIA. Or voters believing that two of the by the FBI itself. presidential candidates come up If you're confused by all this, just a little short in the honesty don't worry. Just join the rest of department and the third might us who believe that the simplest be 4 bit teched, presidential can- explanation is often the most ac- didate Obsrwetter could have curate one-Oberwetter is honest. been just what the doctor ordered. And that the real world isn't al- But aside from all this, I'm for ways populated. with. hit squads giving. Oberwetter a trophy for: running across your lawn. (A) providing the exception to the operative assumption that every Dennis Byrne, is a member of politician is a lying crook and (B) the Chicago Sun- Times aditorial stopping, before they could get board: Pool Report # 19 Nashville to St. EKG Louis October 30, 1992 Quayle of the Opryland Hotel. About 400 to 500 people, most with a side After lobbyk the speech to the KFC folks, the President walked through minutes signs, were well packed in behind a rope. Bush spent about Bush/ three working the rope ** line, shaking hands, giving forth open-mouth, toothy grin. When he realized he missed some, he doubled & an back. As he pulled aways fromnx the hotel, he shouted out (ju7st assaults. boarding limo: Amnest y. Look at it this waY ONLY THREE MORE before the microphone photo to say to pool: Amnesty for the cameramen. car, the (this to the pool. he gave a thumbs up sign). in DAYS he used of covered dogs. (he included Compton in the amnesty, and then Amnesty said for it everyond "but thosesunday talk show = Not hing from Air Force One Jaim Gerstenzang Los Angeles Times Doriean Friedman US News. POOL REPORT #20 October 30, 1992 (st. Louis, Missouri) This was from Marlin Fitzwater, aboard Air Force One, approximately 3:30 p.m. Central Time en route to Milwaukee. I talked to the Legal Counsel's Office in D.C. regarding the Weinberger note. It's important to point out that the meeting involved -- in this indictment is the same one that was the subject of discussion in the first indictment. There are no new, facts that have been introduced by this Weinberger note and the situation has not changed one iota in terms of vice presidential involvement. The fact remains, as we have always said, that all these issues that were looked into by hundreds of lawyers spending some $40 million, and there is just no change in the situation by virtue of this indictment. Apparently what's happened is Judge Walsh has changed the indictment against Mr. Weinberger. But in terms of relevance to the vice president, now President, there isn't any change at all. Marlin was asked about the timing of the note, and said, "The President said he was not in the loop in knowing about the diversion of funds, and he certainly wasn't. No one knew about that, including the Vice President. But in terms of knowing about the loan initiative, the Vice President always said all along that he supported President Reagan. There were a lot of meetings that he did miss. And there were a lot of meetings that were not regular NSC meetings that he wasn't invited to. But, nevertheless, that all has not changed at all." Asked if, in other words, President Bush did not know about the diversion but knew about the swap, Marlin said, "I don't know about what he did know or what he recalls from the meeting. But he didn't know about the diversion of funds. That's the really only relevant case. The issue about knowing about the Iran initiative -- so what? The diversion is the only thing that was subject to legal review. Knowing about the Iran initiative was not a problem. President Reagan, to this day, does not think there were arms for hostages swapped.' Asked about the political timing, Marlin said, "I hate to accuse anyone of politics, but it does seem mighty suspicious that the Clinton people are trying to churn this up. They're calling all over town. It's part of the political game, I guess." Otherwise, the flight and motorcade to hotel were uneventful. Muriel Dobbin, McLatchey Newspapers Dorian Friedman, U.S. News THE WHITE HOUSE MRS. BUSH'S PRESS OFFICE DAILY PRESS CLIPPINGS Friday, October 30, 1992 Mrs. Bush (in folder) Susan Porter Rose Julie Cooke Anna Perez Joan DeCain Laurie Firestone Ann Brock Sondra Haley Jean Becker Sally Runion Jane Moore Peggy Swift Anne Griffith Room 98 OEOB Diana Kellogg Room 157 OEOB Secretary Baker West Wing Marlin Fitzwater West Wing Constance Horner West Wing Dennis Ross West Wing Margaret Tutweiler West Wing Steve Provost Room 118 OEOB Patty Presock Residence Gregg Petersmeyer Room 100 OEOB Shirley Green Room 94 OEOB Karen Connell Room 58 OEOB Carol Powers West Wing Marguerite Sullivan Room 268 OEOB Carolyn Washington Room 268 OEOB Benita Somerfield hold one copy First Lady Detail Staircase Chronological Files Event Files (originals) SHE AP photo First - Lao ..... - . - . THE BOSTON GLOBE THURSDAY. OCTOBER 29, 1992 CAMP AIG N 9 2 Barbara Bush tours Vermont WINOOSKI, Vt. - Barbara Bush kissed a Democratic mayor, cud- dled a baby, poo-pooed political polls and earned a roomful of goodwill during a brief campaign stop yesterday in Winooski. "She's great she's everything she says she is," said Pat Williams, who drove up from Manchester to hear the president's wife speak at the Winooski Senior Center. Williams is a Bush-backer in the presidential race, but said if she had been undecided, Mrs. Bush would have convinced her to vote for Presi- dent George Bush next week. Mrs. Bush started her Vermont visit with a brief meeting with local supporters at the Burlington International Airport. From there she was driven into staunchly Democratic territory - Winooski - where she spoke with about 150 supporters. ASSOCIATED PRESS Poll says many N.H. Republicans disaffected By John Milne GLOBE STAFF CONCORD, N.H. - Significant numbers of New Hampshire GOP voters are rejecting their party's candidates, an independent poll re- leased yesterday found. Republicans are: so disaffected that state party leaders reportedly rejected a visit from President Bush in favor of yes- terday's appearance by his wife, Barbara. "According to a poll of 523 reg- istered voters conducted by the Uni- state candidates were received. Bar- versity of New Hampshire Survey bara Bush came instead. Center, Republican Gov. Judd Gregg "There were some discussions is trailing Democrat John Rauh in about the president campaigning in his. effort to be elected to the US New Hampshire, but it made more Senate seat being vacated by Sen. sense to have him in other parts of Warren B. Rudman. the country," Cahill said. Rauh, a retired Sunapee busi- Gregg confirmed the phone call nessman, led Gregg 47 percent to 38 but said he would have welcomed the percent, the survey said. However, president. the poll found that Gregg's support Barbara Bush came to New GLOBE STAFF WIGGS increased during the Oct. 21-26 poll- Barbara Bush squeezes in a bit of campaigning while heading for a Hampshire after campaign stops in ing period. rally at Brown's Lobster Pound yesterday in Seabrook, N.H. Maine and Vermont. Republicans, at 230,000 register- The Republican defections con- ed voters, outnumber Democrats by tinued yesterday. Peter W. Powell, a 30,000 in New Hampshire, while liam Zeliff was in a virtual tie with percent, with 16 percent backing in- Lancaster developer and the son of there are about 200,000 independent Democrat Robert Preston, 36 dependent candidate Ross Perot. In the late Gov. Wesley Powell, an out- voters. percent to 34 percent, with nearly a similar UNH survey in September, spoken conservative, announced that The governor's race is a dead one out of four voters undecided. In- Clinton led Bush 45 percent to 29 he will vote for Arnesen. "Like other heat, with Republican Stephen E. cumbent Democrat Dick Swett had percent. Republicans, I am concerned about Merrill, a former attorney general 57 percent of the vote compared to A Democratic lead is rare in New building our party for tomorrow, but from Manchester, leading Rep. Deb- 22 percent for Republican Bill Hampshire, where Republicans usu- I know I must vote for good govern- orah Arnie Arnesen of Orford by 44 Hatch. ally win by large majorities. A ment today," Powell said. percent to 42 percent, the survey Republican strategists say their Democratic presidential candidate Voters are uneasy because of the showed. That gap is within the poll's polls show GOP candidates with big- has not carried the state since 1964, still-sliding economy, said Madeleine 3.6 percent margin of error. ger leads, but William E. Cahill, but New Hampshire's four electoral M. Kunin, former governor of Ver- Breaking out GOP voters, the chairman of Bush's Victory '92 com- votes have become important in B mont, at a get-out-the-vote rally last poll found that Bush had the support mittee, said, "We need to reach out three-way race. night for Democrats at the State of only 52 percent of Republicans to disaffected Republicans" to stave During a telephone conversation House. surveyed, Gregg 62 percent and off possible Democratic victories. last week state officials were offered "New Hampshire, in the prima- Merrill 67 percent. The same poll showed Democrat- a presidential visit, but Republican ry, revealed how deep-seated the In the state's two congressional ic presidential nominee Bill Clinton sources said yesterday that plans economic worries are," she said in an races, incumbent Republican Wil- leading Bush 42 percent to 30 were changed after the opinions of interview. "I'm only surprised that it didn't happen before." FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 THE WASHINGTON POST The Reliable Source By Lois Romano WE'VE HEARD THAT.... Ross Perot seemed pretty pleased with himself last night when Cher phoned him up on CNN's "Larry King Live" to let him know she has just cast an absentee ballot for him. "I was really nervous, I was really frightened," Cher confided to the Texan, adding soulfully, "but my conscience is clear." Presidential son Neil Bush did not go unnoticed at a bullfight near Cancun, Mexico, on Wednesday. His presence was announced over a loudspeaker, and a bull was thoughtfully Neil Bush, bullish. dedicated to him. About The Washington Times FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30, 1992 Going in style at museum benefit ocal celebrity women had a L Cinderellalike experience Tuesday when they underwent a major phys- Sen. Ted Kennedy with his sister, ical transformation at the Best of Jean Kennedy Smith Washington's 11th annual Fashion Parade and Luncheon Benefit for the Capital Children's Museum. After arriving at the Ramada Renaissance Techworld with no makeup, uncoifed hair and every- day clothes, the business, political, sports and community leaders were revamped rapidly by profes- sional hairdressers, makeup artists and local and national retailers be= fore sashaying down a long ramp ir front of a sold-out crowd of more than 1,000 guests. Many of the well-known person- alities were hardly recognizable in their silks, chiffons, leathers, blue jeans, platform shoes and hats. Some admitted to feeling a little ridiculous. the aisle really awoke the mostly female audience. Megan Beyer, wife of Virginia's The red, white and blue occa- lieutenant governor. wore a snug- sion was also a reminder that the fitting black leather skirt and red leather jacket by Chanel. "I didn't elections were only a week away. "Things are looking a little more think I'd ever wear these again," she said, pointing to her platform sane these days," reported pres- idential daughter-in-law Margaret shoes. "I can't see me campaigning Bush, who was passing through in Southwest Virginia in this outfit, but I kind of like it. X Above: Margaret Bush and her town before meeting the president children, Marshall and on the campaign trail in Ohio. "I'd probably have to take a sec- Walker. Right: Former Olympians From the other side of the politi- ond mortgage on the house to be Dave Hartcorn, Jim Brady, cal fence came a contingent of able to purchase these clothes," she Kenny Carnes and Donna de Kennedys to cheer Victoria's turn added. Varona in the limelight: sisters-in-law Ethel Mrs. Beyer wasn't the only one Kennedy and Jean Kennedy Smith feeling a little outlandish. "This is not exactly my image." said Chan- wife of Ohio Rep. Bob McEwen. (who received a Humanitarian nel 7's Paul Berry, one of the few The celebrity models looked as Award) and, of course, a proud and if they were enjoying their freebie beaming husband, Massachusetts men in the show. Sporting a jacket with Mickey Mouse logo, the jovial make-overs, and they took full ad- Sen. Ted Kennedy. vantage of the anything-to-please Among the models were such newscaster said it was worth it to digress from a typical workday to beauticians willing to spend ample support a good cause. "People in time on potential future clients. polititical ladies as Ginger Sullivan, Washington like to see and be seen,' Victoria Reggie Kennedy Alice Sessions, Elizabeth Rellly, he said. seemed to be in no hurry as she Lois Breaux, Mary Johnston and Not everyone was feeling self- tried a couple of different looks. Mary Sasser. The media contingent conscious in the borrowed apparel. And a herd of Hafts. including included Kate Leherer. Diana Donatella Andreani. wite of French pompadoured paterfamilias Her- McLellan, Lea Thompson, Susan Ambassador Jacques Andreani, bert Haft. kept hairstylists entan- King, Barbara Harrison and Rene seemed quite at home in her gled in plenty of big hair. Poussaint. Chanei ensemble. Though Mr. An- Also at the event: D.C. Mayor Besides the fashion extrava- dreani enjoyed admiring his wife's Sharon Pratt Kelly, Capital Chil- ganza and celebrity turnout. guests graceful appearance in the red dren's Museum founder-executive were impressed with the all- chiffon outfit. he said. "I hope she director Ann Lewin, lobbyist Anne American theme in which 50 mod- doesn't get too comfortable in it." Wexler, Bitsy Folger, Ann Vander- els paraded down the runway ac- One model. who wasn't at all at pool, Evelyn DiBona, Sally companied by 1992 Olympic ease in a $31,000 fur coat by Fendi. Chapoton, Mercedes Cecchi, Aliki athletes, members of the Youth Ma- had her own way of offsetting the Bryant, Marlene Malek, Esther rine Color Guard. Ringling Bros. preposterous cost of high fashion. Coopersmith, Estelle Gelman, and Barnum & Bailey Circus "I don't know If Fendi would be of- Grace Bender, Barbara Landow, clowns. Bugs Bunny and decorated fended, but I'm wearing my Kmart Janmarie Prutting and event co- golf carts. But it was Redskin Mark shoes!" exclaimed Liz McEwen, chairs Gloria Haft and Deborah Stock whose athletic strut down Siebert. Siobhan McDonough The Washington Times / FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30. 1992 Merrie- Go-Round Merrie Morris The house on the hill: Forget the election. What's really scary is the Quayles' haunted- looking house Halloween night. Word is a ghoulish gang with an uricanny resemblance to the second family will be passing out candy to trick or treaters, ages 10 and under. from 6:30 to 7:30 p.m. However, the little souls must be brave enough to approach the house without their adult companions. Tricks not re- quired. USA TODAY FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 FAMILY VALUES: A survey by USA WEEKEND finds Republican and Democratic presidential camps don't al- ways differ - especially regarding family values. In the survey out today, Presi- dent Bush berates media snooping: "I don't believe anybody has the right to disrupt a family just to get a news story. Character is important, but if reporters must tear up a fam- ily and destroy family privacy to get a story - that story isn't worth printing" Democratic vice presidential candidate Al Gore and his wife, Tipper, say they'd accept it if their By Tim Dillon, USA TODAY children were homosexual: "The GORE: Kids need most important thing that a parent 'love, acceptance' can communicate to a child is love and acceptance." Vice President Quayle agreed: "I will always love and support my children, even if I don't like choices they've made." Democratic presidential candidate Bill Clinton and his wife, Hillary, agree with the Bushes that some popular mu- sic and TV shows undermine family values. "Children de- serve to have some innocence," the Clintons said. Independent presidential candidate Ross Perot and his running mate did not respond to the survey. THE WHITE HOUSE Office of the Press Secretary (Nashville, Tennessee) For Immediate Release October 30, 1992 NATIONAL MEDICAL STAFF SERVICES AWARENESS WEEK, 1992 BY THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA A PROCLAMATION The professionals who direct or manage medical staff services, from hospital communications to the accreditation of physicians and nurses, play an important role in our Nation's health care system. In addition to serving in hospitals and other primary care facilities, these professionals also work in health maintenance organizations, medical societies, state licensing boards, and consulting firms. BY administering rules and regulations, by ensuring accreditation compliance, and by providing a wide range of support to physicians, medical staff coordinators help to promote the quality and efficiency of health care. Today many medical staff services professionals are striving to promote efficiency and professionalism in health care by working through the legal, financial, and regulatory requirements that have increased along with new challenges and opportunities in the health care industry. This week, we acknowledge the value of such efforts. The Congress, by House Joint Resolution 399, has designated the week of November 1 through November 7, 1992, as "National Medical Staff Services Awareness Week" and has requested the President to issue a proclamation in observance of this week. NOW, THEREFORE, I, GEORGE BUSH, President of the United States of America, do hereby proclaim the week of November 1 through November 7, 1992, as National Medical Staff Services Awareness Week. I invite all Americans to observe this week with appropriate programs and activities. IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand this twenty-ninth day of October, in the year of our Lord nineteen hundred and ninety-two, and of the Independence of the United States of America the two hundred and seventeenth. GEORGE BUSH THE WHITE HOUSE office of the Press Secretary (Nashville, Tennessee) For Immediate Release October 30, 1992 NATIONAL MEDICAL STAFF SERVICES AWARENESS WEEK, 1992 BY THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA A PROCLAMATION The professionals who direct or manage medical staff services, from hospital communications to the accreditation of physicians and nurses, play an important role in our Nation's health care system. In addition to serving in hospitals and other primary care facilities, these professionals also work in health maintenance organizations, medical societies, state licensing boards, and consulting firms. BY administering rules and regulations, by ensuring accreditation compliance, and by providing a wide range of support to physicians, medical staff coordinators help to promote the quality and efficiency of health care. Today many medical staff services professionals are striving to promote efficiency and professionalism in health care ber working through the legal, financial, and regulatory requirements that have increased along with new challenges and opportunities in the health care industry. This week, we acknowledge the value of such efforts. The Congress, by House Joint Resolution 399, has designated the week of November 1 through November 7, 1992, as "National Medical Staff Services Awareness Week" and has requested the President to issue a proclamation in observance of this week. NOW, THEREFORE, I, GEORGE BUSH, President of the United States of America, do hereby proclaim the week of November 1 through November 7, 1992, as National Medical Staff Services Awareness Week. I invite all Americans to observe this week with appropriate programs and activities. IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand this twenty-ninth day of October, in the year of our Lord nineteen hundred and ninety-two, and of the Independence of the United States of America the two hundred and seventeenth. GEORGE BUSH THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON TELEPHONE MEMORANDUM OCTOBER 30th , 19 92 PRESIDENT BUSH TIME NAME ACTION PLACED DISC OUT 6:41 AM 6:53 MRS. BARBARA BUSH RES: WASHINGTON, D.C. INC PM WHITE HOUSE ADMIN EXT. 551 TLKD-OK 6:43 A.M. OUT AM INC PM OUT AM INC PM OUT AM INC PM OUT AM INC PM OUT AM INC PM OUT AM INC PM OUT AM INC PM OUT AM INC PM OUT AM INC PM OUT AM INC PM THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON TELEPHONE MEMORANDUM SIGNAL SWITCHBOARD October 30, 1992 TIME NAME ACTION PLACED DISC XXX 5:42 AM 5:52 Mrs. Barbara P. Bush Tlkd-ok Residence, Washington, D.C. 5:43 AM INC PM White House Admin x551 XXX 7:24 AM 7:32 Mr. C. Boyden Gray T1kd-ok Office, Washington, D.C. 7:27 AM INC PM 456-6611 OUT 7:54 AM 7:56 Doctor Burton J. Lee III Tlkd-ok Opryland Hotel 7:55 AM Nashville, Tennessee XXX PM Nashville Signal 3-3000 OUT 7:57 AM 7:58 Admiral Jonathan T. Howe T1kd-ok Opryland Hotel 7:57 AM Nashville, Tennessee XXX PM Nashville Signal 3-3315 XXX 8:34 AM 8:48 Mr. Roger E. Ailes WCB Office, New York City, New York 8:35 AM 212-685-8400 T1kd-ok INC PM 8:43 AM OUT 11:01 AM 11:05 Ms. Patty Presock T1kd-ok Office, Washington, D.C. 11:02 AM XXX PM White House Signal 7-2198 via Cellular STU-III OUT 11:16 AM 11:24 Mr. Alan S. Austin Tlkd-ok Office, Tampa, Florida 11:18 AM XXX PM 813-289-3886 via Secure Satellite OUT 11:25 AM Attorney General Griffin B. Bell PRESUS Cancel Grosvenor House Hotel 11:50 AM London, England XXX PM 499-6363 XXX AM Mr. Raymond D. Siller Tlkd with Mr. Farish Office, Washington, D.C. 1:56 PM INC 1:35 PM 456-2930 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON TELEPHONE MEMORANDUM SIGNAL SWITCHBOARD October 30, 1992 TIME NAME ACTION PLACED DISC OUT AM Mr. C. Boyden Gray WCL Office, Washington, D.C. 2:40 PM White House Signal 7-2258 PRESUS Cancel XXX 2:36 PM 3:50 PM OUT AM Mr. John P. Schmitz T1kd-ok Office, Washington, D.C. 2:45 PM XXX 2:43 PM 2:49 456-2632 via Secure Satellite OUT AM Mr. C. Boyden Gray Tlkd-ok Office, Washington, D.C. 3:31 PM XXX 3:30 PM 3:41 White House Signal 7-2258 via Secure Satellite OUT AM Governor John H. Sununu T1kd-ok Office, Washington, D.C. 5:06 PM XXX 5:05 PM 5:13 898-7655 OUT AM Secretary Manuel Lujan, Jr. Tlkd-ok Republican Headquarters 5:10 PM Los Alamos, New Mexico XXX 5:14 PM 5:21 505-662-4212 OUT AM Secretary Edward R. Madigan Tlkd-ok Holiday Inn, Des Moines, Iowa 5:39 PM XXX 5:14 PM 5:40 515-283-0151 OUT AM Mr. Joe McQuaid Tlkd-ok Office, Manchester, New Hampshire 5:31 PM XXX 5:30 PM 5:38 603-668-4321 OUT AM Mr. Marlin Fitzwater Tlkd-ok Office, Racine, Wisconsin 6:14 PM XXX 6:02 PM 6:19 Racine Signal 4-3281 OUT AM Ms. Judy A. Smith PRESUS Cancel Office, Racine, Wisconsin 6:07 PM XXX 6:05 PM Racine Signal 4-3228 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON TELEPHONE MEMORANDUM SIGNAL SWITCHBOARD October 30, 1992 TIME NAME ACTION PLACED DISC OUT AM Mr. C. Boyden Gray Tlkd-ok Alibi Restaurant, Washington, D.C. 6:29 PM XXX 6:19 PM 6:31 347-8559 XXX AM Mr. Jonathan E. Bush Tlkd-ok En route Residence, Miami, Florida 6:40 PM INC 6:37 PM 6:47 305-775-4221 via Cellular Phone XXX AM Mr. George W. Bush, Jr. Tlkd-ok Residence, Dallas, Texas 7:32 PM INC 7:25 PM 7:36 214-692-6604 XXX AM Mr. William Bush LW with Mr. Farish Residence, St. Louis, Missouri 9:29 PM INC 9:27 PM 314-993-1210 OUT AM INC PM OUT AM INC PM OUT AM INC PM OUT AM INC PM OUT AM INC PM PRESIDENTIAL MOVEMENTS Nashville, Tennessee St. Louis, Missouri Milwaukee, Wisconsin LOCATION Racine, Wisconsin DATE30 October 1992 TIME MOVEMENTS 1045 Depart Opryland Hotel via Motorcade 1108 Arrive Tennessee Air National Guard Base 1121 Depart Tennessee Air National Guard Base via Air Force One 1217 Arrive Lambert International Airport, St. Louis, Missouri 1229 Depart Lambert International Airport via Motorcade 1254 Arrive Maryville Center 1411 Depart Maryville Center via Motorcade 1435 Arrive Lambert International Airport 1446 Depart Lambert International Airport via Air Force One 1530 Arrive Mitchell International Airport, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 1542 Depart Mitchell International Airport via Motorcade 1610 Arrive Marriott Hotel, Racine, Wisconsin 1915 Depart Marriott Hotel via Motorcade 1929 Arrive Memorial Hall 2138 Depart Memorial Hall via Motorcade 2151 Arrive Marriott Hotel 10/29/92 13:48 76174951364 INST OF POLITICS 002 HARVARD UNIVERSITY JOHN E KENNEDY SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT E INSTITUTE OF POLITICS John 79 John F. Kennedy Street Cambridge, Massachusetts oz138 To 617-495-1360 FAX 617-495-1364 Thursday, 29 October 1992 Dear Mr. President: I got the message you called. Attached are two memos I wrote about the campaign. One was written two weeks ago and is about Perot and the campaign. The other is about what we might do now. I am convinced you will win. Slick Willie is hitting the panic button and "the feisty little guy from Dallas" is not dealing from a full deck. Keep on trucking. I'm praying for you and for my country. The Kennedy school Contras are Hanging in there, surrounded but undefeated. All Best: All John Ellis for 10/30/92 John there are yourest valing Mom 16 duivy & 10-30 10/29/92 13:49 C6174851584 1951 or POLITICS If MEMORANDUM To: President Bush/Fred Steeper/George W. Bush From: John Ellis Date: Thursday, 29 October 1992 Re: Campaign Endgame Governor Clinton's lead has now evaporated. Perot's authentic message of change has obliterated Clinton's "change" argument. Perot's paranoid dementia has now raised the "character/temperment/ experience" question to a new level. Natural movement of Republicans and conservatives back to GB accounts for the rest of the voter shift away from Clinton. The Clinton campaign is headed for the Panic Zone. This is what we need to do to continue to drive the election. 1. Increase the frequency of the "Commander-in-Chief" spot. Perot's paranoid episodes on "60 Minutes" and at the various press conferences since has raised the whole issue of character/temperament/fitness/experience to a new level. This works to our advantage and against Clinton. "Commander-in-Chief" drives that message better than anything else we have. 2. Maintain and Emphasize our position as The Underdog. This is a critical component. The President gains when he is perceived as the Underdog. He is seen as a fighter, battling the odds. It is a naturally sympathetic stance. We should enhance this perception by doing the following: a) Have signs made for all GB/BB/DQ/MQ rallies that say: "You Gotta Believe." This will establish a direct link to famous "come-from-behind" baseball teams of the past (Miracle Mets '69 and the Pirates of '79). Bush staffers on the plane should wear "You gotta Believe" buttons. b) Constantly emphasize in our conversations with the press that we are still behind but gaining. c) Paint Clinton as taking victory for granted and overconfident. 10/29/92 13:50 6174951304 INSI OF POLITICS 3. Continue to hammer the Washington Press Corps and the Washington Establishment as having "decided" the election in Clinton's favor. This is a critically important element. In 1968 and 1972, in 1980, 1984 and 1988, we were able to run against the Liberal Establishment, thus establishing our credentials as outside of the Washington system. Up until the last two weeks, we were the Washington establishment. Then the press decided the race was over and Clinton was declared the victor (cover of Newsweek/cover of Time). This gives us our opening. We can accurately say that the Washington insiders and talking heads have decided the outcome of the presidential campaign of 1992. Clinton won. Well fuck them, fuck him and fuck that the election is next Tuesday and we'll count the votes then. 4. GB needs a new speech for the last three-four days. It should be a direct appeal, possibly written along the following outline: a) I want your support to (a) enact The agenda for American renewal, (b) continue conservative governance, (c) improve the prospects for world peace and (d) continue to grow America's enormous economic potential. b) I need your support to (a) make sure that when a crisis comes we're able to deal with it, (b) hold the line on taxes, (c) stop runaway Federal spending and (d) maintain conservative values in the bully pulpit. c) I ask for your vote because my political life is on the line. If I leave the stage now, I will have not completed the mission. I know better now what that mission is (see above). With your help, I will complete it. 5. We should roadblock the networks on Monday night at 10:55 eastern for a last 5-minute speech to the nation. This is the prime network time slot, just before the late news. It should mirror the themes in point #4. 6. We should continue (as hard as it might be) to bolster Perot's credibility on issues and change. After last night in Denver, it is clear that Perot and stockdale have targeted Clinton. We need to keep Perot up on the radar in order for him to be effective in his attacks on Clinton. 10/29/92 13:51 *6174951364 INSI UI POLITICS If MEMORANDUM To: President Bush/Fred Steeper/George W. Bush From: John Ellis Date: Thursday, 15 October 1992 Re: The Campaign Bill Clinton's presidential candidacy is headed for the rocks. The evidence is only beginning to emerge in public opinion polling. But the debates have created a new dynamic and if we execute correctly we will win the election. Following are the key elements to the new dynamic: 1. Ross Perot went from little-known, slightly eccentric Dallas businessman to the front-running independent candidate for President of the United States in a matter of two months (April 15- June 15) on the strength of his message. The three components of his message were (and are) the same three that made George Wallace a major player in the late 1960s and early 1970s: (1) Send Them a Message; (2) There's Not a Dime's Worth of Difference between the two political parties; and (3) Stand Up for America. Perot dropped Wallace's racialist rhetoric and has instead focused his wrath on what Wallace used to call "pointy-headed bureaucrats in Washington." Perot calls them "special interests," "Beltway insiders" and "lobbyists in $1000 suits and alligator shoes." 2. The reason Perot vaulted as far and as fast as he did is because his message resonated across the country. A majority of voters believe that our political system is a rigged game, in which only insiders in the government, business, special interests and the media reap the returns. 3. When Perot dropped out, Bill Clinton uneasily inherited the majority of the Perot voters. It was not an easy fit. Clinton, after all, is not an authentic agent of change. His whole life revolves around playing and using the "system" to his advantage. 10/29/92 13:52 96174951364 1351 OF POLITICS & 4. Clinton is perhaps the best politician of his generation. So he has been able to frame the presidential race on his terms, which are: "Who are you for? Are you for Bush or not-Bush? If you are for not Bush, then you are for me!" 5. And it has worked, so far. This whole race has defied all of the laws of political gravity because it has not been a choice between Bush and Clinton, but rather a hypothetical question about Bush VS. not-Bush. 6. Perot changed that dynamic by getting back in the race and getting into the debates. The authenticity of his message reveals Clinton's message for what it is. It's bullshit. And everyone knows it. When Bill Clinton wishes his wife a happy anniversary during the first debate, everyone thinks: "What about Ms. Flowers? This guy's full of shit." When Bill Clinton talks about "change," the change he describes sounds like the Nightmare from Democratic Hell. Billions in new spending, billions in new taxes. He does not talking about changing the system, which is what a majority of voters desperately want changed. 7. The authenticity of the Perot message diminishes Clinton's message and raises direct questions about Clinton's character (honesty and integrity). When VP Quayle hammered Clinton on Tuesday night for being a "liar," Albert Gore did not even bother to refute the charge. 8. This is our opening. We need to hammer Clinton on three things: (1) Character (he won't tell you the truth) i (2) Clintonomics (Arkansas?/Carter-Mondale policies of the past which will make things worse) and (3) Commander in Chief (somewhere, sometime, there will be a crisis that will come up, who do you trust to deal with it?) 9. Perot, in order to redeem himself, will only find votes among Clinton supporters and the undecided. Our 37% is solid and will not move. So he must go after Clinton. It is his only way to redemption. 10. Clinton is then caught in the ugly logic of his candidacy. He is inevitable, he is electable, he is "for change," but no one is voting for him. They are voting against Bush or for Perot but amazingly few voters are actually for Clinton. 11. In order to vote for Perot, voters must be reassured that their votes will not be thrown away. Thus it is imperative for Perot to make the case in the final debate (and if not then, then in his last advertisements) that a vote for him will in fact Send Them a Message and allow them to Stand Up for America. It seems to me his Monday night game plan will have to focus on that. 10/29/92 13:54 P6174951364 1A51 or POLITICS 12. After Monday's debate we must go negative by going positive. In other words, we must make the case for President Bush as "commander in chief" and by unstated implication find Clinton untrustworthy and unworthy in that role. We must make the case for President Bush's agenda for American Renewal while desparaging past Democratic economic performance (Arkansas?/Carter-Mondale). And we must emphasize President Bush's character positively (with shots of Bar and the kids and testimonials from friends) and let Clinton hang by unstated comparison. 13. Clinton is extraordinarily vulnerable and currently is below 50% in every state except those that are safely Democratic to begin with. We can assist his political collapse by relentlessly focusing on his character (with direct negative through Tuesday, 20 October) and then by making the larger case for President Bush in the final two weeks. We need one more "different philosophy" speech to outline our sharply different views of the role of government. 14. There should definitely be two key ads for the last two weeks: One that executes the whole concept of Commander in Chief and another that compares Arkansas?/Carter/Clinton economics with President Bush's mea culpa/agenda for renewal. 15. President Bush should do everything we can think of to bolster Perot's candidacy and, more importantly, credibility. Every vote that Ross gets above 8% is a vote off Clinton. Perot is the enemy of our enemy. Therefore he is our friend. daily GEORGE BUSH WASHINGTON Mr. John E. Stein Sunwater Farm SR 4, Box 184-D Brightwood, Virginia 22715 GEORGE BUSH WASHINGTON October 30, 1992 (Racine, Wisconsin) Dear John, Thanks so much for your warm letter of October 23. As we head further down this final stretch, my spirts are high and the crowds are more and more enthusiastic. I'll remain on the road through election day, but with only four days to go, I feel confident of winning. Barbara and I appreciate all you're doing and send our family love. Sincerely, ay JOHN ELLSWORTH STEIN SUNWATER FARM BRIGHTWOOD, VIRGINIA 22715 Friday, October 23, 1992 Dear Goye, Just a note before the last week to let you know that and you're going to win. Abbe and d have been talking stop in Culpoper, Drange, Charlottesville and have in debating with on friends and maighbors non- Madison, Viginia. Things are definitely moving toward you; it is clear and sure. able wrote a letter to the editor of several local newspapers supporting your candidary and has received a number of enrowaging calls same. We tell everyone to go out and convine someone else 8 the merits of your relection Heap your sprits high. If our area of Piedmont, Virginia is representative of lots of places in this County (and A believe it is ) This are diffinitedy moving toward Bush/Duayle! My very best, John GEORGE BUSH WASHINGTON, Ms. Elizabeth Rice Younger Companies Suite 200 2575 West Bellfort Houston, Texas 77054 GEORGE BUSH WASHINGTON October 30, 1992 (Racine, Wisconsin) Dear Elizabeth, Your thoughtful letter of October 26 has caught up with me on the road. Thanks so much for your kind words of support and encouragement. The media has been terrible in this election, but with four days to go, I am confident the American people will make the right choice on November 3rd and we will win. Barbara and I are sincerely grateful for your support. We've been traveling nonstop these past two weeks and will be in Houston on Monday night. I appreciate your kind offer to help and will keep it in mind. Thanks, again. Sincerely, ay Buh YOUNGER COMPANIES October 26, 1992 President George Bush The White House Washington, DC 10205 Dear Mr. President: You certainly are proving the old saying, " If you tell the truth, it will never come back to haunt you" and "If you tell the truth long enough people will believe it and accept it." Strange that many Democrats are now faced with the decision, do we vote for our party or do we vote for the truth. Republicans are strange creatures. We don't make quite as much noise as the democrats but we Vote. We study all the facts, weigh and measure the candidate carefully, and we Vote. When all the smoke clears on November 3, I am confident that the Republicans, along with many Democrats and many who do not claim an affiliation with any party will Vote and it will again be President George Bush in the White House. It would serve the American people well to listen carefully to your closing remark each time you speak to them "and God bless the United States of America". We need a leader who recognizes God's existence and blessings and who is not afraid to acknowledge that His grace has made this a great nation. The media has crucified this election and at some point they will be held accountable for the future. One thing for sure, that reporter only gets ONE vote just like me The thing we the people have done wrong, is to give the media an open door to plant their opinions in the American mind instead of just reporting the news. Mr. President, I'm sure if you endorsed a vitamin it would make a fortune you look extremely fresh and healthy and Mrs. Bush looks radiant. My prayers are with you and again, if I can be of any service to you here in Houston, please let me know. Respectfully 2575 WEST BELLFORT, SUITE 200 HOUSTON, TEXAS 77054 OPID PD DOCDATE 920817 RECTYP OBA MEDIA L NAME MS. ELIZABETH RICE ORG YOUNGER COMPANIES STREET SUITE 200 2575 WEST BELLFORT ADDR HOUSTON TX 77054 SUBJECT THANKS FOR THE GIFT OF THE GOLF HAT SUBCODE GI002 RE011 INDCODE 4000 ACTION RM DSP 920821 CP2A A 920817 COMMENTS CC: GIFT UNIT I0601 * End of documents in list. Press ENTER or enter another command. Sanders DOCUMENT= 1 OF 2 PAGE = 1 OF 3 NAME Mr. Douglas Sanders SPOUSE Mrs. Scotty SAL OUT Doug & Scotty DESCR Professional golfer. CODES DB2 5 CC5 TXHSTN PLITCL SELEBZ SPORTS HUFRAQ ISSUES SPGOLF KNPORT PRAYRZ FFNAME "George," "George B" and "GB" out. HOME1 8828 Sandringham Houston, TX 77024 (713) 681-6134 Or: 681-6135. BUSINESS1 Doug Sanders Enterprises, Inc. Suite 115 8100 Washington Avenue Houston, TX 77007 (713) 864-3684 Kingwood Celebrity Classic. Elizabeth Rice was 1990 Tournament Director. Asst: Ianne Shuler. ? LUPDATE 921027 4BU Sanders DOCUMENT= 1 OF 2 PAGE = 2 OF 3 UPDATE BY CT02 DATES FYI: Born approximately 1934. PRIV COMM Children: Brad, Scott and Stacey. His annual Doug Sanders Kingwood Celebrity Classic, a high- light of the Senior PGA Tour, identifies and provides scholar- ships for gifted student golfers. CONTACT 5/90 GB attended Doug Sanders Kingwood Celebrity Classic in Houston TX. 9/22-23/90 Overnight guest at Camp David. 8/89 They both spent time in K'port with GB and BPB. CORSPNDNC ChrisCard: 1990, 1991. 2/9/90 GB thanked for 1/2 letter and invitation to golf in May. Schedulers will take closer look as date approaches. 3/1/91 GB thanked for support phone call. 4/91 GB sent signed photo. 5/6/91 GB thanked for get-well phone call. 4BÜ Sanders DOCUMENT= 1 OF 2 PAGE = 3 OF 3 6/11/91 GB thanked for letter. Invites him to lunch in D.C. 8/26/91 GB thanked him for invite to May 16 tournament. 10/16/91 GB thanked for golf shirts. 10/24/91 GB thanked for clothes. Maybe they could golf in TX 12/91 Made donation to St. Judes Ranch for Children for Christmas present, picture shows kids at their home. GEORGE BUSH WASHINGTON, e letter from Southern Baptist The Reverend Morris H. Chapman t's fax it to Executive Committee t would encourage Southern Baptist Convention 901 Commerce Street Suite 750 ty Nashville, Tennessee 37203 GEORGE BUSH WASHINGTON October 30, 1992 (Racine, Wisconsin) Dear Reverend Chapman, Your wonderful letter of October 29 has caught up with me in Wisconsin. Thank you for the very kind and supportive words and for your prayers. I'll remain on the road through election day, but with convinced victory only four days remaining, I feel confident of winning. Thanks, again, and best wishes to you and Jodi from all of the campaign; the Bushes. and a profound Sincerely, ht. Cuy Busl 'God bless these Then Class Morris H. Chapman MHC:bc Home telephone: (615) 661-5191 901 Commerce Street, Suite 750, Nashville, Tennessee 37203 (615) 244-2355 FAX (615) 742-8919 Executive Committee Southern Baptist Convention Harold C. Bennett President and Treasurer Morris H. Chapman President and Treasurer-Elect October 29, 1992 President George Bush The White House Washington, DC 20500 Dear Mr. President: Keep the faith. The battle is the Lord's. The tide has turned. I am convinced victory is within your grasp. I am praying for you supernatural wisdom in these last few days of the campaign; keenness of mind especially during Larry King Live Friday evening and a profound peace which passes all understanding (Philippians 4:7) on election night. May God bless you and your family. And as you have said often, "God bless these United States of America." Sincerely, Then Ch Morris H. Chapman MHC:bc Home telephone: (615) 661-5191 901 Commerce Street, Suite 750, Nashville, Tennessee 37203 (615) 244-2355 FAX (615) 742-8919 Previous 319061 DOCUMENT= 3 OF 6 PAGE = 1 OF Correspondence OPID KM DOCDATE 920313 RECTYP OBA MEDIA L NAME DR. MORRIS CHAPMAN TITLE PRESIDENT ORG SOUTHERN BAPTIST CONVENTION STREET 901 COMMERCE STREET SUITE 750 ADDR NASHVILLE TN 37203 SUBJECT THANKS FOR ACCOMPANYING THE VICE PRESIDENT TO SHREVEPORT, LOUISIANA ON MAR 8 92. HE GAVE ME A TERRIFIC TRIP REPORT AND NOTED YOUR INVALUABLE SUPPORT. SUBCODE ME001 FG038 INDCODE 4500 4900 ACTION RM DSP 920316 CP2 A 920313 COMMENTS REQUESTED BY VPOTUS DATED MAR 13 92 CC: VPOTUS AND ROSE ZAMARIA 4BÜ 348524 DOCUMENT= 6 OF 6 PAGE = 1 OF 1 OPID PD DOCDATE 920828 RECTYP OBA MEDIA L NAME REV. MORRIS H. CHAPMAN ORG SOUTHERN BAPTIST CONVENTION STREET SUITE 750 901 COMMERCE STREET ADDR NASHVILLE TN 37203 SUBJECT THANKS FOR THE SUPPORT FROM YOU AND JODI FOR MY REELECTION SUBCODE PL PR003 INDCODE 4500 ACTION RM DSP 920831 CP2 A 920828 I0601 * End of documents in list. Press ENTER or enter another command. 4BÜ THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON October 22, 1992 GEORGE BUSH WASHINGTON Hart thank-you Mr. Jerry Hart Hart. 1537 Kirby Drive ished the Houston, Texas 77019 ff room met the re. They GEORGE BUSH talked told me WASHINGTON ention or DU. Mr. October 30, 1992 te should (Racine, Wisconsin) Dear Mr. Hart, fice, who ximately I would like to personally thank you for donating the use th their of your lovely furniture at our 1992 Republican National (FYI: if a Convention. Not only was the furniture beautiful, it added a feeling of warmth to each room. It was very kind of you help in this way, and I appreciate your support. I've been out campaigning almost nonstop since then, and with only four more days to go, I remain confident of winning this election. Best wishes to you and Wynonne. Sincerely, inj Bush THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON October 22, 1992 MEMORANDUM FOR NANCY HUANG FROM: BARBARA BLACKBURN SUBJECT: Presidential Thank you Per our conversation, Tim Parker, a designer from the Hart Galleries called our office asking for a Presidential thank-you from the President to the Hart Galleries owner, Jerry Hart. Apparently, at the Convention, the Hart Galleries furnished the Presidential suite, First Family room and Chief of Staff room with antiques, artwork, etc. Mr. Hart claims that he met the President who was very thankful for the lovely furniture. They have been thanked via the Convention people but I have talked with Bill Harris' (Convention Manager) office and they told me that someone (and we don't know whether they were Convention or campaign people) promised them a Presidential thank you. Mr. Harris' office felt strongly that a POTUS thank you note should be sent to Mr. Hart. In addition, I spoke with Jeff Monk, B/Q Counsel's office, who told me that some of the furniture was damaged (approximately $3000 worth), and they (B/Q) are presently working with their insurance company to try and rectify the situation. (FYI: if a note is sent, they would like a copy for their file.) The note should be addressed to: Mr. Jerry Hart (wife-Wynonne) 1537 Kirby Drive Houston, TX 77019 Tim Parker's telephone #713-266-3500 10-25-92 daily 10/30 JEB BUSH, CODINA.BUSH GROUP HE PRESIDENT HAS SEEN 10/30 Dear DAO, You were great in Floride we well wen. By to time you The results will he Bue 395 get thes, the lace will he 435 over Claston and Peot. 176 with 1% for Marror etal. You will have defined the presents and may in our own camp. we will we because of you your determination, your spirit, your leadership. dresn't two out as e have are producted, right If it daught me that and you what else life will goes have on. given You at our best shor and can ine we at for. we Reght? love you very much! Coryroholation on you victory! Sinclrely, nelli Bush llwe you. Jet SR, GEORGE BUSH WASHINGTON Mr. and Mrs. John W. Young 221 Lakeshore Drive Seabrook, Texas 77586 G GEORGE BUSH WASHINGTON (Nashville, Tennessee) October 30, 1992 Dear Susy and John: Your good letters caught up with me on the campaign trail. We're going to win this thing regardless of the relentless pounding by the news media. Bar joins me in sending our best wishes. Hope our paths cross soon. Sincerely, an ugly year Cm Buh but we u win ! Dear Chief and Chief Bar, My apologies for not having written sooner, par- ticularly since mid-February when you, shall we say, assisted in the departure from NASA of my least-liked person on this earth. And, we are thrilled with our new administrator. My life is back to the future and back to wonderful. Thank you SO much. 'Nuff NASA stuff. I was particularly remiss in not having written when all was going SO wonder- fully for you. What I needed to tell you then was you both did one heckuva job. We were always proud to know you; you both added class and integ- rity to an area not always known for such quali= ties, and humor and intelligence when both were sorely needed. like When all this major wonderful stuff is over, we hope to see you again. (Johnny says you're prob- ably mad at me 'cause you've had us and I've not had you for dimer, but I will remedy that if you will come. ) Anyway, lots of good thoughts send to you from us for good things in November, and, as always, Lots say of love, 221 haheshore Drive Sealvock Texas 77586 18 October 1992 Dear President Bush. The NDSA Adminstrator. Mr Dan Soldin, presented me with your very nice letter of / October 1992. He made the presentation in front of about heleasently surprised. Susy was very touched opening Space Center, Houston. I was completely, a thousand people at the ribban cutting ceremony by the centire proceedings. in the election. Our Irigor Space Exploration Susy and I wish youand Bar all the best should be an important issue to americans concerned about our nations future. again many Thanks. Sincerely yours. John yarung GEORGE BUSH WASHINGTON Monsignor William J. Lyons 8200 Natural Bridge Road Saint Louis, Missouri 63121 GEORGE BUSH WASHINGTON (Nashville, Tennessee) October 30, 1992 Dear Father Lyons: Thank you for your kind note. Your support means a lot. The media is relentless, but we're going to win this thing. Barbara joins me in sending our best wishes. Sincerely, Cig Bul 8831 the MON KENNEBUNIC PORT It MA7 CARDING DINNER GUEST WITH (MSGR.) Buthyous - you BOT H WITH AM Mins Bush MIR PResident and SAINT LOUIS, MISSOURI 63121 8200 NATURAL BRIDGE ROAD SNOAT Haasor WVITUM (3) 10-30-92 daily THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DAD - w/ Keep up the fight! We are incrediesly proud of you! This will be the quatist victory sunce the R Sweet 16 Victory i L Shoes! Love, Maw GEORGE BUSH WASHINGTON Miss Eldred Brown Post Office Box 594 Big Timber, Montana 59011-0594 GEORGE BUSH WASHINGTON (Nashville, Tennessee) October 30, 1992 Dear Eldred: Thank you for your great letter. Your kind words warmed my heart. We're going to win regardless of the relentless bias of the news media. Again, yours. thanks so much, Best wishes to you and Sincerely, Miss Eldred Brown Box 594 Att'n.: Don Rhodes Big Timber, MT 59011 October 20, 1992 President George Bush The White House Washington, D.C. 20500 Dear President Bush: I can imagine That you and your staff are even more weary of this long campaign Than is The average American. It must be grueling beyond belief, and there must be times of utter frustration in view of the bias of the media. Even 50. I beg of you to stay the course, as I know you will. I appreciate your commit ment TO public service since you were a young man. I believe in you, I trust you, and I know you are fighting the good fight. Thank you for all you have done for This nation ahead! in the past, and God bless you in The weeks Eldred Sincerely, Brown 10-25-92 daily 10/30 JEB BUSH, CODINA·BUSH GROUP Dear DRO, You were great in Flored we well we By to time you The results will he Bue 396 get this, th lace will he 432 over Clinton and Peot. 176 with 1% for Marrow etal. You will have defined the predit and many in our own camp. we well wis because of you your determination, your spirit, your leadership. If it dresn't two out that as and & you have are preducted, right life well goes have on. given You daught it out me best shot and what else on can ine we at for. we Right? love you very much! Congrabulation you victory! Sinclrely, nelli Bush I love you- Jet SR, Columba TIME OF TRANSMISSION TIME OF RECEIPT WHITE HOUSE SITUATION ROOM PRECEDENCE: IMMEDIATE RELEASER: PRIORITY ROUTINE DTG: MESSAGE NO. CLASSIFICATION UNCLASSIFIED PAGES 1 FROM ROBIN MACLEAN X2328 FF/WW (NAME) (PHONE NUMBER) (ROOM NO.) MESSAGE DESCRIPTION TO (AGENCY) DELIVER TO DEPT/ROOM NO. PHONE NUMBER ROSE ZAMARIA - AIR FORCE ONE CROSE 2. IS EXPECTING TO RECEIVE THIS WHEN SHE BOARDS AFI THIS AM EN ROUTE ST LOUIS.) REMARKS: ROSE, CHOO HERE'S THE LETTER WE CHOO 0 BUSH 92. DISCUSSED. 0 YEA/ R. D White House News Summary Friday, October 30, 1992 10:00 A.M. EST/9:00 A.M. CST NEWS UPDATE PRESIDENT'S INTERVIEW (Reuter) -- President Bush said in an interview broadcast today that he is encouraged by his improvement in the polls that he recently has been dismissing as "nutty." But Bush said on NBC's Today that he was still not convinced they were right. "Obviously, we're encouraged," he said in the interview videotaped Thursday night aboard Air Force One. "But we can't put great faith in the polls." Bush said that despite the polls showing he still trails Clinton by various margins, "I never lost confidence in winning the election.' Bush declined to repeat his pledge on not raising taxes in a second term, recalling that he had to roll back his 1988 pledge of "Read my lips: no new taxes. " "I'm not going to go the pledge route, he said. "You don't try to retrace the mistakes of the past." CAMPAIGN (Karen Ball, AP) -- President Bush and Bill Clinton fought over the sluggish economy as they headed into the last weekend of their presidential race, with the Democratic nominee lashing out anew at his rival's record on jobs and growth. "If you look at what's happened over the last 10 or 12 years the overall line is going down, Clinton said on ABC's Good Morning America in a broadcast from a diner in nearby East Rutherford. Both Bush and Clinton were campaigning at a breakneck pace in tossup states. They and Ross Perot snapped up free air time to take their case to the voters. In a taped interview on NBC's Today, Bush was asked if he would promise not to raise taxes in a second term and said: "I'm not going to go the pledge route." GORE/ENVIRONMENT (Beaumont, Tex./AP) -- Sen. Gore accused President Bush of insulting Americans who are concerned about the environment by making light of the issue with expressions such as "Ozone Man" instead of providing leadership. His comment came in an interview on NBC's Today. POLLSTERS/DECLINING RESPONSES (Scripps Howard, adv. 10/31) -- Some survey experts are wondering: have they misread public opinion because Americans increasingly refuse to answer questions by phone? In the 1970s, about 80% of those surveyed completed polls. today, response rates hover at about 60%, pollsters say. Since the accuracy of a survey depends upon reaching people at random, some pollsters are wondering whether certain types of people are consistently choosing not to answer. San Francisco pollster Mervyn Field blamed the trend toward declining response rates on changing lifestyles in the family, the rapid spread of answering machines and tricky telemarketing tactics that have contributed to a diminished regard for opinion surveyers. ### News Summary OFFICE OF THE PRESS SECRETARY THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 6:00 A.M. EST EDITION TRIP NEWS BUSH FINDS FUEL FOR FIRE ABOUT STATE, IN SUBURBS -- If President Bush needed any fuel for his finishing kick, he may have found it in Michigan on Thursday. (Detroit Free Press) CONFIDENT BUSH BARES HIS KNUCKLES -- The surging Bush campaign machine thundered through Michigan and into enemy territory -- Tennessee -- Thursday in a bid to stage an upset victory, as the campaign rhetoric on both sides got nastier. (Washington Times) BUSH, CLINTON BEGIN FINISH-LINE SPRINT -- Pumped up by the polls and the moment, President Bush raced across Michigan Thursday in rhetorical overdrive, attacking the "way-out, far-out" Democratic ticket. (Washington Post) NATIONAL NEWS CLINTON CAMPAIGN SEEKS PERMISSION FOR LOAN -- The Clinton campaign, planning to spend its $55 million in federal money down "close to zero" by Election Day, has asked permission to borrow $1 million to pay bills right after Tuesday's voting. (Washington Post) INTERNATIONAL NEWS ISRAEL AND JORDAN HAMMER OUT AGREEMENT -- Israeli and Jordanian negotiators at the Middle East peace talks have made the first tangible breakthrough by agreeing on a document that lays out the agenda for their talks. (UPI) NETWORK NEWS (Thursday evening) PRESIDENT'S TRIP -- The Bush campaign, bursting with last- minute hope and new-found pep, TRIP NEWS A-1 seemed almost out of control. NATIONAL NEWS A-5 President Bush got a much- improved forecast from INTERNATIONAL NEWS A-15 Michigan Republicans. NETWORK NEWS B-1 CLINTON/AIDS -- Bill Clinton is promising to lead an all-out effort against AIDS if elected. This Summary is prepared Monday through Friday by the White House News Summary Staff. For complete stories or information, please call 456-2950. TRIP NEWS BUSH FINDS FUEL FOR FIRE ABOUT STATE, IN SUBURBS DETROIT -- If President Bush needed any fuel for his finishing kick, he may have found it in Michigan on Thursday. Bush stormed the state from east to west, and was visibly boosted by a crowd of 7,300 people in Macomb County who roared when he described the Democratic ticket as "those two bozos." At a business group's luncheon in Southgate, he almost pleaded: "I need your support. I need your vote. Do it on the basis of economics, character, trust. Whatever it is, I don't care." And in Grand Rapids, 10,000 people waited two hours in foot- stomping cold to give Bush a warm welcome and let him know he can count on western lower Michigan, a traditional Republican stronghold. (Patricia Montemurri, Wylie Gerdes and Dawson Bell, Detroit Free Press) BUSH TELLS MICHIGAN: 'ECONOMY NOT AS SICK AS THEY SAY' WARREN -- President Bush campaigned in the heart of "Reagan Democrat" country Thursday, reassuring worried Americans that "the economy is not as sick as the opposition would have you believe." With five days left, Republicans claimed Bush was rapidly closing in on Bill Clinton in Michigan. "Michigan is absolutely essential," Bush told a riverfront rally in Grand Rapids. "We must and we will win the state of Michigan." If In a state plagued by big layoffs in the auto industry, Bush trumpeted the message that the economy is not in recession and has grown "albeit anemically" in the last six quarters. Taxes and trust are Bush's main issues in the final days, and he underscored both in a speech to several thousand people at Macomb Community College Recalling tough economic times under Jimmy Carter -- and figuratively moving his foes back to the late 1970s -- Bush said, "We cannot go back to that Clinton-Gore inflation by raising taxes and raising spending." (Terence Hunt, AP) BUSH INVADES 'OZONE LAND,' GIVES NUTTY POLLSTERS REPRIEVE NASHVILLE -- President Bush Friday invaded the home state of Al Gore, who he has dubbed "Ozone Man," and was on the verge of forgiving pollsters who he called nutty and crazy before their surveys showed him catching up. "You don't consider them nutty pollsters anymore?" asked a TV interviewer Thursday night in Michigan. "Uh, well, I'm less inclined to say that," replied the President. But then again, maybe they are nutty. "Look, how do they jump around? How does one poll have (a spread of) of 10 points, and the very same day the other one has two, or 20 points, and three? Something's strange," Bush said in a televised town meeting from Grand Rapids, Michigan. Strange polls they may be, but Bush and his campaign were scouring every one of them for signs that the President is riding a true surge of support and can beat the odds to win re-election against the favored Clinton next Tuesday. (Steve Holland, Reuter) White House News Summary Friday, October 30, 1992 -- A-2 CONFIDENT BUSH BARES HIS KNUCKLES Campaign Tastes Upset Victory GRAND RAPIDS -- The surging Bush campaign machine thundered through Michigan and into enemy territory -- Tennessee -- Thursday in a bid to stage an upset victory, as the campaign rhetoric on both sides got nastier. With his campaign gaining momentum and aides giddy with talk of a historic upset against Bill Clinton, Bush told a frenzied crowd outside of Detroit, "You guys are fired up. That makes me feel like victory is ours." He later flew here, where President Ford said, "I think momentum has turned." (Paul Bedard, Washington Times, A1) BUSH SAYS CLINTON TRYING TO WIN THROUGH FEAR GRAND RAPIDS -- President Bush, dismissing his Democratic rivals as "bozos, Thursday accused Bill Clinton of trying to scare Americans into believing the economy is worse than it is to cling to his lead in opinion polls. "The only way they can win is to convince America we're in a recession, " Bush told a cheering crowd at an outdoor rally Bush, who has been urging Americans to ignore opinion polls, told supporters at a Chamber of Commerce luncheon near Detroit that he was "encouraged that these polls that we live and die by are shaping up." (Laurence McQuillan, Reuter). BUSH, CLINTON BEGIN FINISH-LINE SPRINT Upbeat President Charged By Polls, Steps Up Rhetoric WARREN -- Pumped up by the polls and the moment, President Bush raced across Michigan Thursday in rhetorical overdrive, attacking the "way-out, far-out" Democratic ticket on everything from northern spotted owls to his opponent's draft record. Bush, during his 12th campaign trip to this vital state, was introduced at three stops in Detroit suburbs by Gov. Engler, who called the contest here "dead-even," the Democratic campaign "dead in the water" and the Bush campaign "hot." And hot Bush was. At a midday GOP rally at Macomb Community College, the President unleased a rhetorical fusillade on Bill Clinton and Al Gore, attacking their fitness for office, their character and charging, "My dog Millie knows more about foreign policy than these two bozos. In particular, Bush targeted Gore, whom he now calls "Ozone Man, " or just plain 'Ozone." "You know why I call him Ozone Man?" the President said. "This guy is so far out in the environmental extreme, we'll be up to our neck in owls and outta work for every American. He is way out, far out, man. " (Ann Devroy, Washington Post, A1) White House News Summary Friday, October 30, 1992 -- A-3 BUSH, CLINTON TARGET EACH OTHER AS PEROT TARGETS THE PRESS Jostling for advantage in key Midwestern states Thursday, President Bush warned Bill Clinton not to "pick out the drapes" in the White House yet, and Clinton promised to "slam him home the last five days." Clinton accused Bush of distorting his record as governor of Arkansas in a desperate bid to keep the White House. Bush has been airing radio ads throughout the South that Clinton people describe as "baldfaced lies." "We're going to slam him home the last five days about all of these incredible, incredibly dishonest things he's said about my record, " Clinton said before a jog in Toledo, Ohio. "The American people are going to see him for what he is, a desperate person who just wants to hold power and doesn't give a rip about them." Fielding viewers' calls on "CBS This Morning," from Dearborn, Mich., Bush took on the speculation that his political career may be almost over. "Governor Clinton has already started picking out the drapes in the White House, said Bush. "They're a little premature. People like somebody (who's) fighting back against all the odds, and that's what we're doing." (Charles Green and R.A. Zaldivar, Knight-Ridder) Bush, Clinton Trade Attacks As Race Stays Tight President Bush and Bill Clinton are stepping up their personal attacks on each other as polls showed the race for the White House remains tight. Bush on Thursday called Clinton and Al Gore, "bozos" who knew nothing about foreign affairs while Clinton said Bush has no standards and would say or do anything to win. New polls Thursday raised Bush's hopes that he can catch Clinton by election day. The CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll had Clinton ahead, 41% to 38%, with Ross Perot at 16%. (Robert Green, Reuter) WHITE HOUSE EFFORT TO ARRANGE TELEVISED TOWN-HALL MEETING FAILS ST. LOUIS -- White House efforts to arrange a televised town- hall meeting here with President Bush collapsed after local TV executives raised questions about the fairness of airing it twice. The news directors of KMOV (Channel 4), KSDK (Channel 5) and KTVI (Channel 2) said they had assured the White House that a town- hall meeting here would get significant live coverage. But they said they had balked at suggestions that the stations replay a tape of the event in prime time. A Washington spokesman for the Bush-Quayle campaign [Tony Mitchell] said that scheduling problems were responsible for scrubbing the event, not the failure to secure prime-time exposure. (Eric Mink, St. Louis Post-Dispatch) -erom- White House News Summary Friday, October 30, 1992 -- A-4 BUSH SAYS MIDEAST PEACE IS POSSIBLE IF HE WINS GRAND RAPIDS -- President Bush said Thursday that he thought a final Middle East peace accord would be possible if he won re- election next week. Asked if he thought there were chances for a peace settlement between Israel and its Arab neighbors if he won next Tuesday's election, Bush replied: "I would think it's possible. I wouldn't want to hold out any false goal, but I think it's possible." (Reuter) BUSH SIGNS BILLS TO HELP DISABLED, POLICE COMMODITIES MARKETS GRAND RAPIDS -- President Bush on Thursday signed bills intended to improve federal programs for the disabled and to strengthen federal oversight of the commodities futures market. Bush signed the Rehabilitation Act Amendments of 1992 during a break in campaigning in western Michigan. He said the legislation was aimed at helping end discrimination against Americans with disabilities and helping them enter the job market. The commodities bill outlaws insider trading in the futures pits for the first time and imposes fines up to $500,000 on brokers who cheat customers. (AP) ### NATIONAL NEWS CLINTON CAMPAIGN SEEKS PERMISSION FOR LOAN The Clinton campaign, planning to spend its $55 million in federal money down "close to zero" by Election Day, has asked permission to borrow $1 million to pay bills right after Tuesday's voting. Bush-Quayle campaign officials immediately attacked the Democrats' request to the FEC, saying it was an improper attempt to change campaign rules just before the election to free up money for last-minute expenses, such as TV commercials. Fred Malek said at a news conference that the "panicked request for relief from profligate spending" should be rejected. "They're broke. They're embarrassed," Malek said. "This is the first real test Bill Clinton has had in managing federal funds and he's failed it." Christine Varney, general counsel to the Clinton-Gore campaign, who filed the request, said in an interview that her committee is "targeted to hit close to zero on Nov. 3." But she said the loan request was "not about politics, and buying more TV ads, but cash flow." (Charles Babcock, Washington Post, A16) BUSH CAMP SAYS CLINTON MISHANDLES CAMPAIGN SUBSIDIES The Bush campaign Thursday charged rival Bill Clinton was mishandling his federal campaign subsides and trying to stretch campaign finance rules, a charge the Clinton camp said was fabricated. "Bill Clinton has just acknowledged he has run out of money five days before the election," Fred Malek said at a news conference. But Clinton spokeswoman Avis Lavelle responded, "We're not out of money, honey. This is just a flat out fabrication." (Reuter) DEMOCRAT SCORNS FOE'S 'POLITICS OF DENIAL, DIVISION' JERSEY CITY -- Fighting to hold together the coalition that has put him within striking distance of the White House, Bill Clinton swept across the nation's industrial heartland Thursday appealing to voters to reject "the politics of denial and division and blame which the Bush Administration has visited on this country for too long. " On the surface Clinton was serene and confident, but as the days before Tuesday's voting dwindle there is renewed tension within his campaign and a gnawing worry about the impact of President Bush's continuing assault on his character and trustworthiness. "The man has no core convictions," Clinton said of Bush before a morning jog in Toledo. "This is a guy here who would literally say or do anything to get elected. And anytime you're an incumbent president and you don't have any standards, you have a chance to win. I have always thought I was the underdog." (Ed Walsh, Washington Post, A1) -erom- White House News Summary Friday, October 30, 1992 -- A-6 CLINTON HITS BUSH FOR POLITICAL NAME-CALLING SECAUCUS, N.J. -- Bill Clinton admits he has trouble respectfully calling his rival "President" Bush -- especially after the Republicans dubbed the Clinton-Gore team "Bozos" and "crazy" on foreign affairs during a Thursday night speech. "I've never done that to him," Clinton said Thursday night on a televised "town hall" meeting in Secaucus. "I don't mean to be disrespectful.' When a woman berated Clinton for referring to his rival as "Mr. Bush" instead of "President Bush," Clinton defensively said he often gives the incumbent the presidential title, but -- referring to Bush's Thursday speech -- added, "I'll tell you this, he referred to Sen. Gore and I as 'Bozo' and 'crazy'" on foreign policy. "Maybe I should always say 'President Bush, but maybe it is hard for me because of the way that the campaign has operated,' Clinton said. Clinton noted also that many media reports have shown Bush campaign ads to be false or misleading about Clinton's tax proposals. (Thomas Ferraro, UPI) EUROPEANS PICK CLINTON AS A CLEAR WINNER BERLIN -- Europeans respect President Bush for his steady hand at the world's helm as the Soviet empire collapsed, but they clearly favor Bill Clinton to win the election. Bush gets a lot of praise around Europe for his foreign policy experience, his close friendships with many of the continent's leaders and his ability to cobble together the anti-Iraq coalition during the Gulf War. But it's Clinton who gets the sort of adulation that put him on the cover of Germany's respected Spiegel magazine last week, staring boldly at the future and standing under the headline, "America's Hope." The cover story called Clinton an "intellectual," said he had "political qualities unseen in America since Lyndon Johnson's days" and just about declared him the election's winner. An accompanying story, quoting only unidentified sources, said Chancellor Kohl was so confident of a Clinton victory that his aides had established confidential contacts with the Clinton camp. (Juan Tamayo, Knight-Ridder) CLINTON SAYS AIDS WOULD BE MAJOR PRIORITY IN HIS ADMINISTRATION JERSEY CITY -- Bill Clinton promised Thursday that if he is elected president AIDS will be a major priority for him. In a shift away from his recent effort to steer clear of controversial topics, he stood in the rotunda of the courthouse here Thursday night with 500 people crowded inside and said that schoolchildren have to be told in a clear but sensitive way how AIDS is transmitted. President Bush and Ross Perot have said very little about AIDS in the current campaign. Clinton is the only one to devote an entire speech to it, even though presumably he already had the support of most AIDS activists and gays. But it may stimulate a final get-out-the-vote blitz and demonstrate the Democratic nominee's heightened sensitivity to the subject. Clinton said he would appoint an AIDS czar, increase funding for AIDS research and propose a national insurance program with large pools for self-insured businesses to try to prevent those who discover they have AIDS from being dumped off their insurance. (Ann McFeatters, Scripps Howard) -erom- White House News Summary Friday, October 30, 1992 -- A-7 CLINTON SAYS HE OPPOSED USAIR DEAL Bill Clinton has joined Ross Perot in making a campaign issue out of the proposed alliance between USAir and British Airways. Clinton said on "Larry King" Wednesday that if he were president he would refuse to sign off on the proposed $750 million deal because, "we get no access to the British market if we do it." Thursday, however, Secretary Card said that he planned to decide on the alliance sometime between the election and Dec. 24, the date either of the two airlines could walk away from the deal. (Martha Hamilton, Washington Post, F1) CLINTON'S POLICE FORCE IDEA CALLED 'GOOFY' Law enforcement officials say Bill Clinton's proposed National Police Corps is a "goofy idea" that could cost taxpayers more than $3 billion and divide the country's police agencies. "It's absolutely absurd, a goofy idea that won't work," said Officer Ron Robertson, vice chairman of the Labor Committee of the D.C. Fraternal Order of Police. "He's proposed a plan that doesn't make any sense, will cost too much money and isn't going to save anyone a dime in taxes." (Jerry Seper, Washington Times, A5) GORE STUMPS IN ECONOMICALLY DEPRESSED NEW ENGLAND BURLINGTON, Vt. -- Al Gore crisscrosses economically depressed New England Friday, concentrating during the final days of the campaign on the small states with much needed electoral votes "George Bush and Dan Quayle have driven this country into the ditch. They don't know how to get it going again. They don't have any proposals for lifting out country and putting our people back to work," Gore told a rally earlier Thursday in east Texas. (Judith Crosson, Reuter) FLOWERS: CLINTON SAVED MY STATE JOB Bill Clinton interceded with an associate in the state government to make sure Gennifer Flowers kept her job, Flowers said Thursday. Flowers, in a radio talk show [Rush Limbaugh] interview broadcast Thursday, said she was unaware that Charlette Perry, a black employee of the Arkansas Board of Review, was passed over for the job that was given to her. A grievance board in June 1991 ruled in Miss Perry's favor, saying she was unfairly denied the position given to Miss Flowers. "I talked to Bill about it, " Flowers said of Bill Clinton. "Don Barnes is the head of he agency and I said, 'Charlette has won this grievance,' and he said, 'Don't worry about it. Barnes will take care of it. " Barnes, the political appointee who hired Flowers, rejected the grievance committee ruling, thus keeping Flowers in the position. (Bill Gertz, Washington Times, A5) - White House News Summary Friday, October 30, 1992 -- A-8 TIPPER GORE MESHES POLITICS, MOTHERHOOD AT ST. LOUIS RALLY ST. LOUIS -- Tipper Gore addressed 200 supporters a rally at the University of Missouri at St. Louis. She blasted President Bush and the Republicans on a number of fronts. For instance, on the environment, she said they touted the view, "We've got ours and we're not leaving the next generation anything. That's wrong. She said Bush was calling her husband "Senator Ozone" to divert public attention from his own "dismal environmental record." (Jo Mannies, St. Louis Post-Dispatch) CLINTON LEADS BUSH BY 16 POINTS IN CALIFORNIA, POLL SAYS SAN FRANCISCO -- Bill Clinton is leading President Bush by 16 points among likely California voters in the final week of the campaign, according to a poll published Friday. The survey by independent pollsters California Poll found Clinton maintaining a large lead over Bush in California despite a huge surge of support for Ross Perot. The poll of 1,106 likely California voters found 45% would vote for Clinton against 29% for Bush and 23% for Perot. (Reuter) THREE MORE POLLS AND BUSH STILL RUNS SECOND NEW YORK -- Polls released by three television networks Thursday showed Bill Clinton leading President Bush by 3, 5 and 9 percentage points. Clinton's biggest lead, 44% to 35%, was in an ABC news tracking poll of 903 likely voters surveyed on Tuesday and Wednesday. Perot was at 16%, and the poll has a four-point margin of error. A one-night poll taken Wednesday for NBC News and the Wall Street Journal had Clinton at 43%, Bush at 38% and Perot at 11%. That was a 2-point gain for Bush and a 4-point drop for Perot from a comparable poll the previous night. But the changes were within the 5-point margin of error. (AP) PEROT'S SUPPORT SLIPS, BUT IMPACT IN RACE REMAINS Where His Supporters Go May Determine If Bush Has A Chance of Winning Support for Ross Perot is slipping, and where it goes probably will determine whether George Bush has nay chance of pulling off an upset in Tuesday's election. The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll gives Bill Clinton a 44% to 34% lead over Bush among registered voters, with Perot at 15%. Among those who vote regularly, Clinton's lead drops to six points, 43% to 37%, with 13% for Perot. (David Shribman and James Perry, Wall Street Journal, A16) QUEST FOR VOTES QUICKENS The presidential candidates blanket key states this weekend in a last round of saturation campaigning. President Bush, Bill Clinton and Ross Perot will seek votes on the road, in a blitz of TV ads and a flurry of interviews. All three are hoping to open up a race that the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll finds too close to call. With 270 electoral votes needed for victory Tuesday: Clinton leads in 18 states and D.C., totalling 223 votes. Bush is solid in four with 17 votes. (Richard Benedetto, USA Today, 1A) -елош- White House News Summary Friday, October 30, 1992 -- A-9 ADDING UP THE VOTES THAT COUNT Bill Clinton heads into the final campaign weekend with far more electoral votes safely in his pocket than President Bush, regardless of how tight the national polls show the race getting. "Right now, this is an Electoral College blowout" say Del Ali of the Mason-Dixon poll. Indeed, with 270 electoral votes needed to win, Clinton's comfortably ahead in 18 states and the District with a total of 223 votes A new Detroit News Michigan poll today shows Bill Clinton ahead by 10 points. (Richard Benedetto, USA Today, 4A) BUSH, CLINTON GET PERSONAL President Bush and Bill Clinton spoke with Sam Donaldson on "Prime Time Live" Thursday night. Clinton on Bush: "He really has made a total separation in his own mind between how he is as a person, how he is as a president, and how he is as a candidate. You saw the story where he told Mr. Gorbachev not to pay any attention to what he said in the domestic political campaign, that he just had to say things to get elected. "I think that one of the reasons that his Administration is in so much trouble today is that he is a nice man in his personal life and then as President, hasn't focused with any kind of intense passion on the real problems of real people in this country. ("Final Week,' USA Today, 3A) BUSH UNSURE OF BAKER'S ROLE IN NEXT ADMINISTRATION President Bush, who has repeatedly accused Bill Clinton of waffling on key issues, said Thursday he could not say what job James Baker would have if Bush is re-elected next week. Asked by Sam Donaldson on "Prime Time Live" Thursday night whether Baker would be economic policy coordinator for all of Bush's second term or go back later to the State Department, Bush at first avoided a direct answer then finally said he did not know what Baker would do. According to a transcript supplied by ABC, Bush replied to Donaldson's question by saying, "I guarantee you that is going to be the best coordinator we possibly could have not just for economics " "For the entire term?" Donaldson interjected. " but for domestic, I don't know, Bush continued. "But, so it's not for the entire term" Donaldson said. "I didn't say that -- don't know whether it " Bush replied. "Well, which is it?" Donaldson asked. " for the, well, we don't know Sam, I don't know, what are you going to be doing three years from now?" Bush said. (Reuter) White House News Summary Friday, October 30, 1992 -- A-10 REAGAN STUMPS FOR BUSH IN CLOSE STATES With President Bush tantalizingly close to catching Bill Clinton, the Republicans plan to launch an offensive today by bringing out their not-so-secret weapon -- President Reagan. Reagan will hit the stump today and tomorrow to wrap up four key states for the incumbent president. He also taped radio spots this week for Bush. By calling Reagan out of retirement days before the election, Bush campaign officials are hoping to tilt the balance in GOP- leaning states by rallying disaffected conservatives and blue- collar Democrats. (Valerie Richardson, Washington Times, A4) SCHAEFER EXPECTED TO BACK BUSH Governor Accepts Invitation To Rally ANNAPOLIS -- Maryland Gov. William Schaefer, a Democrat, will travel to St. Louis on Friday to appear at a rally with President Bush and is expected to give his endorsement to the Republican incumbent. Schaefer, has a long and warm acquaintanceship with the President and has frequently spoken of him in flattering terms. Schaefer spokeswoman Paige Boinest said this evening that Schaefer decided to make the appearance with Bush after receiving a call Thursday from Robert Teeter. "He hasn't said anything so far in the presidential election, and he felt it was time to go with his conscience," Boinest said. Boinest said Schaefer plans to address the rally. She said Schaefer will likely endorse the President at that time. (Richard Tapscott, Washington Post, D1) Schaefer Plans To Attend Campaign Rally With Bush Friday ANNAPOLIS -- Governor Schaefer plans to fly to Missouri Friday to attend a campaign rally with President Bush Kevin Igoe, executive director of the Maryland Republican Party had been asked before Schaefer's plans were announced whether an endorsement by the governor would help more than hurt, given Schaefer's low standing in state public opinion polls. "The Clinton people certainly didn't go out of their way to get his endorsement, so that certainly tells you something," Igoe said "Clearly the governor has had his battled and his enemies lately, but let's not be crazy about this, he still has a lot of influence in this state," said House Majority Leader D. Bruce Poole, a Democrat. "If I were in a battle, I would still rather have the governor with me than against me, Poole said. (AP) RATHER AND CO. As for differences in reporting, CBS by far was the toughest on President Bush, while ABC was the most balanced, according to the Center for Media and Public Affairs, after having done analysis all the presidential election stories ever reported by the three networks. It turns out that 72% of the CBS sources commenting on Bush were critical, while 56% of those commenting on Bill Clinton were negative. ABC, had only a 4-point difference in negative evaluations (65-61) ; while NBC had a 9-point gap (69- 60). ("Inside the Beltway," Washington Times, A6) - White House News Summary Friday, October 30, 1992 -- A-11 OUT WEST, QUAYLE SCOURING USUALLY REPUBLICAN STATES FOR VOTES CASPER, Wyo. -- Campaigning near the edge of the known Republican world, Vice President Quayle is tying to reclaim the mountain West for President Bush, telling voters they can't trust Bill Clinton and shouldn't waste ballots on Ross Perot. At every stop, Quayle's message was the same, with minor variations in the wording. Quayle called Clinton a waffler and said he'd be "a patsy for that liberal greedy Democratic Congress." (Walter Mears, AP) BARBARA BUSH SEEKS TO ENERGIZE GOP WOMEN IN FLORIDA FORT LAUDERDALE -- Facing a dead heat in Florida with only five days to the election, Barbara Bush flew into Miami on Thursday to energize Republican women and turn out the GOP vote. Mrs. Bush urged 1,000 women at a lunchtime rally at the Omni International Hotel to work hard for her husband between now and Tuesday. The First Lady's speech emphasized Women's issues and each member of the audience was given a brochure titled "President Bush: Meeting The Concerns of America's Women." (Buddy Nevins, Fort Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel) WE'VE HEARD THAT After dismissing for months an invitation to appear on MTV by saying he didn't want to be a "teeny-bopper at 68," the President of the U.S. has relented. Partially. He'll be interviewed by the pop music cable network during a whistle-stop train trip through Wisconsin tomorrow for a Sunday show. No questions from the audience, though. ("The Reliable Source," Washington Post, B3) CONSERVATIVE GROUP'S ADS LINK CLINTON-JACKSON A conservative group placed ads in 27 small newspapers claiming a Clinton presidency could mean a Senate seat for Jesse Jackson. The ads were prepared by the Freedom Leadership Political Action Committee, a group based in Chantilly, Va., that promotes conservative issues and candidates and opposes statehood for D.C. The ads read: "Before you vote for Bill Clinton, ask yourself: Do you want Jesse Jackson in the U.S. Senate?" Clinton supports D.C. statehood, and Jackson could run for the Senate in D.C. "This appeal to race-based politics has worked for Republicans in national campaigns in the past," said Frank Watkins, press secretary to Jackson. (Scot Lindlaw, AP) White House News Summary Friday, October 30, 1992 -- A-12 PEROT SLAPS AT GOP ON LARRY KING SHOW DALLAS -- Ross Perot slapped at President Bush for living in an "insulated bubble, failing to acknowledge the weakness of the economy and believing that all his rivals are "crazy." "He's history," Perot said of Bush during an appearance on "Larry King" Thursday night. Perot defended his controversial charges that the GOP had targeted him with dirty tricks. "It is unthinkable that these wonderful people in the Republican Party might do that?" Perot said in response to a question from King. "This is the same party that gave us Watergate. This is the same party that gave us Iran-contra. This is the same party that's up to it's ears in Iraqgate right now. This is the same group that is always hands off: 'Gee, we didn't do it.' So there's a pattern here." (Marcus Stern, Copley) PEROT PREDICTS A 'LANDSLIDE VICTORY' TUESDAY Independent Candidate Says He 'Absolutely' Regrets Raising Allegation Of Dirty Tricks DALLAS -- As new polls showed his support eroding, Ross Perot sought to rally his troops Thursday night, touting a new blitz of network "informercials" he will run the last two nights before the election and predicting a "landslide victory" on Tuesday. Appearing on "Larry King," Perot said he "absolutely" regrets raising his unsubstantiated allegations of Republican "dirty tricks" on national television last weekend Attempting to refute charges that Ross Perot is trying to buy the presidency, campaign aides to Perot released figures they said show Perot has been greatly outspent by his two major rivals, and the aides called for an overhaul of the nation's campaign-finance system. At the same time, the campaign announced that Perot has rejected news media request to release his tax returns and medical records Perot concluded that releasing his tax and medical records at this late date would only "deflect" attention from the major issues, campaign spokeswoman Sharon Holman said Perot adviser Clay Mulford said that when "soft money" contributions to the two political parties are counted along with federal government matching funds received by the Bush and Clinton campaigns, the Republican and Democratic presidential campaigns outspent Perot by close to 3 to 1 for the entire year. (Michael Isikoff, Washington Post, second edition, A24) EX-PEROT ADVISER DISPUTES CLAIM OF DIRTY TRICKS CONWAY, Fla. -- Ed Rollins on Thursday disputed Ross Perot's assertion he left the presidential race because of threatened Republican dirty tricks against his family. Rollins said he never heard of any scheme to smear Perot's daughter with a doctored photo and to disrupt here wedding. "I can tell you that there would never be any effort on the part of Republicans or Democrats to go after someone's family when they had so much other stuff to go after him on," Rollins said. "What he doesn't want to discuss is the week before he dropped out of the race, he lost nine points (in the polls). He was dropping like a rock." (Scott Morris, Knight-Ridder) -елош- White House News Summary Friday, October 30, 1992 -- A-13 FOR THE RECORD The Cincinnati Post quoted Oliver North as saying to the Junior League of Cinicinnati this week that "President Bush has been honest with the American people regarding the then-vice president's role in the Iran-contra scandal." ("Inside the Beltway," Washington Times, A6) FBI RAIDS U.S. TREASURER'S HOME IN CRIMINAL PROBE The FBI Wednesday raided the home of U.S. Treasurer Catalina Villalpando to investigate allegations that she collected payments from a former employer after President Bush named her treasurer, government sources said. Villalpando "requested and was placed on administrative leave" Thursday, Claire Buchan, a Treasury Department spokesman, said Thursday night. Villalpando has not ben charged. Federal agents searched five locations for evidence, and their search warrants cited possible violations of eight statues governing fraud, bribery, racketeering, conspiracy to defraud the government, fraudulent claims and false statements. (Sharon LaFraniere, Washington Post, second edition, A1) CRAY, U.S. LABS PLAN SUPERCOMPUTER PROJECT The Department of Energy, stepping up efforts to shift the priorities of its defense labs to commercially useful research, Thursday announced that two nuclear weapons facilities would work with Cray Research Inc. to develop supercomputers capable of carrying out a trillion calculations per second. Steven Fried, a DOE spokesman, said the $72 million government-industry project would be one of the largest cooperative ventures ever undertaken by the department. (Daniel Southerland, Washington Post, F2) GROWTH IN INEQUALITY OF INCOMES HIGHLIGHTED BY 2 REPORTS Two reports released Thursday underscore the widening gap between the rich and poor in this country, a trend that began in the early 1970s and accelerated in the 1980s. In one study, a New York University economist argues that the very richest Americans -- the top 0.5% in wealth -- received 55% of the total increase in real household wealth between 1983 and 1989. The study, released by the Economic Policy Institute, said wealth among the lowest 60% of families either fell or stagnated during that period The second report, a compilation of papers issued by the Census Bureau, showed that among five industrialized countries -- Canada, Sweden, Australia, West Germany and the U.S. -- the U.S. had the most unequal distribution of earnings during the mid- 1980s. Sweden had the least inequality. (Barbara Vobejda, Washington Post, A4) White House News Summary Friday, October 30, 1992 -- A-14 REPORT CRITICIZES JUSTICE DEPARTMENT'S PURSUIT OF CRIMES A new report by a George Washington University professor alleges the Justice Department has discouraged and sometime blocked federal prosecutors and investigators from pursuing environmental crime cases. John Turley, who authored the report for Rep. Schumer, said it is based on interviews with more than two dozen federal prosecutors and EPA investigators. It contends that the Justice Department officials have imposed "an unreasonably high standard" for environmental prosecutions and at time intervened directly with local prosecutors to lessen the charge or the penalty. Roger Clegg, a deputy assistant attorney general in the environmental division, attacked the report in an interview, saying: "This is an obvious political hatchet job. This was commissioned by a Democratic congressman and written by law students supervised by a liberal junior law professor." (Sharon LaFraniere, Washington Post, A3) ### INTERNATIONAL NEWS ISRAEL AND JORDAN HAMMER OUT AGREEMENT Israeli and Jordanian negotiators at the Middle East peace talks have made the first tangible breakthrough by agreeing on a document that lays out the agenda for their talks. The agreement has been forwarded to Jerusalem and Amman for final approval, but the head of the Jordanian delegation, Abdel Salam Majali, said Thursday that "most of the language has been accepted." "The year was not spent in vain,' he said. (Sid Balman, UPI) U.S. SEES PROGRESS IN PEACE TALKS, TIES IRAN TO AMBUSH OF ISRAELIS While tying Iran to a terrorist attack against Israel, the Bush Administration is challenging Arab assertions that Mideast peace talks are near a standstill. Assistant Secretary Ed Djerejian on Thursday said all the key issues -- land, peace and security -- were being addressed in the talks. He urged the Palestinians to seize the opportunity offered by Israel for self-rule elections in May. At the same time, an anonymous senior U.S. official linked Iran to a bomb ambush by the Hezbollah that killed five Israeli soldiers on Sunday. "There is one country that is important, Iran, that has made it abundantly clear it is opposed to the Arab-Israeli peace process, and Hezbollah is one of its instruments," the official told reporters at the State Department. The official said the U.S. has no evidence that Syria was involved in the attack. (Barry Schweid, AP) U.N. EXPERT SAYS GAPS CLOSED IN IRAQI INFORMATION BAGHDAD --- The head of the U.N. arms team wound up a 14-day inspection of sites across Iraq Friday saying his mission closed several gaps in information on Iraq's weapons programs. "We have covered all uncleared areas, many gaps were closed," Nikita Smidovich told reporters before departure to Bahrain. On Monday, Smidovich said there were significant gaps in information provided by Baghdad on its ballistic missile program. But the Russian expert said as he left his hotel that intensive inspections in the last two days helped in gathering the necessary data. (Leon Barkho, Reuter) U.S. SOUGHT SAUDI AID TO BLOCK IRAN SUBMARINE BUY The Bush Administration was so alarmed earlier this year by the prospective sale of Russian attack subs to Iran that it tried to interest Saudi Arabia in paying Russia to abandon the transaction, according to U.S. and British officials. That gambit failed, as did direct U.S. diplomatic entreaties to Moscow. "It's not clear that there's a price that would stop the sale that the Saudis are willing to pay, said one official involved in the negotiations. (Barton Gellman, Washington Post, A1) -more- White House News Summary Friday, October 30, 1992 -- A-16 NATIONS VOW MORE AID FOR EX-SOVIETS, CALL FOR QUICKER CHANGE TOKYO -- Developed nations promised a new wave of aid to hep the former Soviet republics survive the coming winter but warned that the West cannot continue to help unless the new states hasten their switch to market economies and democratic governments. Addressing leaders from 12 former Soviet republics and some 60 donor nations at the Tokyo Conference on Assistance to the New Independent States, Lawrence Eagelburger said, "We cannot aid those who are unwilling to help themselves. Reform must be accelerated. "The new states must promote competition, tax reform, genuine property and contract rights They must stay the democratic course." But to help the former republics make it through the winter, Eagleburger announced new U.S. grants of $274 million in food and medical assistance, plus other loans and assistance programs valued at $158 million. (T.R. Reid, Washington Post, A30) U.N. ASKS U.S. FOR HELP IN SOMALI RELIEF EFFORT U.N. -- The U.N. has asked the U.S. to provide air and sea transport to ferry equipment and peace-keeping troops to war- and famine-torn Somalia in an effort to speed lagging humanitarian relief efforts there. Officials here say the plan is to move equipment into the country ahead of peace-keeping forces from Canada, Belgium, Egypt and Nigeria, thus shortening the time required for an eventual deployment of the troops. (Trevor Rowe, Washington Post, A31) -End of A-Section- NETWORK NEWS (Thursday evening, Oct. 29) CAMPAIGN/PRESIDENT'S TRIP ABC's Peter Jennings: Unless you live in a battleground state like Michigan, with its 18 electoral votes, you're not going to see much of the candidates in person between now and election day. When Gov. Clinton was in Detroit, the President was out in the nearby suburbs. ABC's Brit Hume: For much of today, the Bush campaign, bursting with last-minute hope and new-found pep, seemed almost out of control. First it was Bruce Willis introducing the President and attacking his opponent at a campus rally outside Detroit. (TV coverage: President Bush waving to supporters.) (Willis: "I'm pissed off. I am angry that this man can stand up there and say that he's qualified to be commander-in-chief.") The President, getting into the spirit, called his opponents two bozos, and then let fly at Clinton running mate Al Gore's passionate environmental views. He called Gore, as he has for days, the ozone man. (TV coverage: President Bush speaking at rally.) (President Bush: "You know why I call him ozone man? This guy is so far off in the environmental extreme, we'll be up to our necks in owls and out of work for every American. This guy's crazy. He is way out, far out, man.") The partisan crowd loved it all, and the President seemed to feed on that. He worked himself up even more in his finale. (TV coverage: President Bush speaking to cheering crowd.) (President Bush: "And let's lead the world to new heights of prosperity for every single American. Don't let them tear it down. God bless America. Thank you all very much. Things seemed to settle down a bit as the President campaigned later in Grand Rapids with former President Ford, though Ford seemed not to quite understand a question about how the President would do in Michigan. (TV coverage: President Bush leaving Air Force One with Ford.) (Reporter: "Is he going to win Michigan?" Ford: "Forget it, forget it.") Ford, obviously, thought the question was about Gov. Clinton. In an odd way, though, his answer was an example of something the Bush campaign hopes could save their man yet, the sheer unpredictability of politics. (ABC-2) NBC's John Cochran: Michigan is a prime example of a state where Bush is trying to win back voters who went for him four years ago -- not the Republicans but the so-called Reagan Democrats who have seemed likely to go for Clinton. Bush got a much-improved forecast from Michigan Republicans. (Gov. John Engler: "Bill Clinton's support is eroding in Michigan. It's eroding across the country.") - White House News Summary Friday, October 30, 1992 -- B-2 Cochran continues: Bush's aides give much of the credit to Ross Perot, who cut into Clinton's lead. Bush also feels he has drawn blood with his attacks on Clinton. His new ad is strictly negative. The announcer never even mentions Bush's name. It's a 30-second assault on Clinton. (TV coverage: President Bush waving to crowd and speaking.) (Bush ad: "And now Bill Clinton wants to do for America what he's done for Arkansas. America can't take that risk.") Bush also includes Al Gore in his attacks when he accuses both Democrats of knowing nothing about foreign policy. (President Bush: "My dog Millie knows more about foreign affairs than these two bozos. Bush has taken to calling environmentalist Gore Mr. Ozone. (President Bush: "You know why I call him ozone man? This guy is so far off in the environmental extreme, we'll be up to our necks in owls and out of work for every American. This guy's crazy. He is way out, far out, man. [Applause] Hey, listen. You think you would save General Motors by slapping more regulation on them? Less regulation, less taxes. Bring that back.") (TV coverage: President Bush on stage with Ford.) Here, Bush was campaigning in the heart of the hard-hit auto industry and trying to win the so-called Reagan Democrats. Later in Grand Rapids, Bush was trying to hold the Republican vote with the help of Gerald Ford, the last Republican incumbent to lose in a presidential race. The Ford campaign is the one that haunts the Bush campaign. In the home stretch, Ford came from far behind, only to lose in a photo finish to a Southern governor. (NBC-2) Brokaw reports the prospect of reaching young voters has led the President to a change of heart. He will appear on MTV on Sunday. (NBC-13) CBS's Susan Spencer: The President was in uncommon form today on this, his 11th trip to the state of Michigan. His mood was buoyed by a local poll showing the race a virtual tie here. (Gov. John Engler: "We're in the homestretch. We're closing the gap. We're going to finish the job on November the third.") On the Bush campaign these days, you are upbeat or else, the Michigan poll adding ammo to the claim that the President is on the move, although Democrats heartily dispute it. Many people are undecided and Mr. Bush could hardly contain himself today when warning them against the Democrats, calling them, at one point, bozos. (TV coverage: President Bush waving to cheering crowd.) (President Bush: "If you listen to Gov. Clinton and ozone man, if you listen to them. You know why I call him ozone man? This guy is so far off in the environmental extreme, we'll be up to our necks in owls and out of work for every American. This guy's crazy. He is way out, far out, man. But in economically strapped Michigan, hecklers tried to spoil the fun. The state governor said it doesn't mean a thing. (Engler: "We've seen the Republican vote come home very solidly and then in recent days, two or three days now, we're starting to see the independent vote.") Michigan is another of those states Mr. Bush won in '88 and badly needs now. Certainly, he's going all out to show confidence. -more- White House News Summary Friday, October 30, 1992 -- B-3 Spencer continues: (TV coverage: President Bush on stage with Ford.) (President Bush: "The American people know what the Arkansas record was. They know what waffling and character mean. And I am going to win election on November third.") Well, perhaps it was the mood of the day. Perhaps it's a sign of how much trouble Mr. Bush may be in. In any case, he has now decided to do an interview with MTV, something he laughed at a few months ago when Gov. Clinton did it. (CBS-2) CAMPAIGN/CLINTON Jennings: [Inaudible] That's a small gain of two points from yesterday for Mr. Clinton, no change for Mr. Bush and a four-point drop for Mr. Perot. As you know, there are a lot of polls out there, and it's rather hard to digest the numbers. We'll try in a minute. But before that, the candidates' day. In many respects, the race is turning nasty and certainly very personal. ABC's Chris Bury reports Clinton today all but called the President a liar. He said Bush had repeatedly distorted his record on everything from taxes to his accomplishments in Arkansas. (TV coverage: Clinton jogging with wife.) (Clinton: "There is no standard of truth in the Bush campaign. He will say anything. ") At the University of Toledo, he shifted his attack to the economy, pointing out new figures indicating growth were due largely to people spending their savings. (TV coverage: Clinton speaking at rally.) (Clinton: "And when Mr. Bush looks at an anxious and frightened American and tells us this is as good as it gets, that says something worse about his presidency than anything I could ever say.") Later, Clinton urged students to defy predictions that young people will mostly stay home election day. (TV coverage: Clinton waving to cheering students.) (Clinton: "I think you're going to be there. Are you going to be there?") Clinton moved from Ohio to Michigan, where polls show his once- huge lead has narrowed. (TV coverage: Clinton greeting supporters and waving to crowd.) (Clinton: "Four more years where we're divided by race, by region, by income, where we keep losing our manufacturing base. I think we can do better." Clinton left for New Jersey to make good on a promise to AIDS activists that he would give a speech on AIDS before the election. The political wisdom of that was debated. By scheduling the speech late in the day, the campaign all but guaranteed it would get only limited national exposure. (ABC-Lead) NBC's Tom Brokaw: This presidential race now is beginning to resemble a roller derby, with the candidates skating faster and faster and bumping each other harder on every turn. And like a roller derby, it's sometimes tough to tell who's leading where. The latest NBC News-Wall Street Journal Poll shows Bill Clinton's lead down to five [Clinton 43 percent, Bush 38, Perot 11]. That's an overnight survey of a little more than 500 likely voters. White House News Summary Friday, October 30, 1992 -- B-4 Brokaw continues: Ross Perot dropped four points in just 24 hours. But then look at this: Two days of polling by ABC and CNN -- Clinton up by nine in the ABC Poll, up by only three in the CNN-USA Today poll. NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports Clinton accused Bush of lying about his record in a series of radio ads. (Clinton: "But anytime you've got an incumbent president who will literally say anything to be elected -- he said in the beginning he'd say or do anything to get elected. He has put on ads all over America that are ads, that have been roundly rejected by every objective specialist who's heard it. He has made up charges about my record. He will say or do anything. The man has no core.") The radio ads have been damaging and they are loaded with misstatements. Claims that Clinton will raise taxes and close military bases have never been made by the candidate. (TV coverage: Clinton greeting supporters, posing with Sen. Nunn.) (Clinton: "The very idea that the word trust could ever come out of Bush's mouth after what he has done to this country, and the way he has trampled the truth is a travesty for the American political system. Everything will depend on getting voters, many of them newly registered, to the polls. (TV coverage: Clinton speaking at rally.) (Clinton: "I think you're going to be there. Are you going to be there?") (Clinton: "Lift this country up, move this country forward. That's what this election is about. Don't let them take it away from you. The Clinton campaign is worried about the inroads Bush is making in Michigan and Ohio, knowing that whoever wins these two states could very well win the election. (NBC-Lead) CBS's Richard Threlkeld reports Clinton is promising to lead an all-out effort against AIDS if he is elected. It's a message to the gay and lesbian community, whose vote he's counting on. (TV coverage: Clinton speaking at rally.) Estimates are that at least 5 million gays and lesbians will vote, and about nine out of 10 are expected to vote Democratic. (Clinton, May 18: "What I came here today to tell you in simple terms is I have a vision and you're a part of it. I believe tomorrow will be better than today if we act. And we're all a part of the same community and we'd better start behaving as if we are.") (Glen Maxey, Texas state legislator: "They've come out of the closet into the voting booth, and they're going to elect Bill Clinton and Al Gore.") Gays are attracted to Clinton's promises to address gay issues, in contrast to what they say the President has not done. (Unidentified man: "[Inaudible] HIV issues or AIDS is the fact that the Administration has not properly addressed the issue.") And as the Republicans made clear at their convention, no homosexuals need apply. (Maxey: "This election is a watershed. It is an election that for the first time in the history of this country, our issues are being discussed." -епоп- White House News Summary Friday, October 30, 1992 -- B-5 Threlkeld continues: Some on the religious right are running a TV ad campaign targeting Clinton's ties to the gay community. This will mark the first presidential campaign in which gays and lesbians have begun voting in a bloc in their own self-interest, and perhaps not the last. CBS's Dan Rather: President Bush has now called both Ross Perot and Bill Clinton crazy. When he called Perot crazy, Perot responded. Today, he said that Clinton's crazy. Has Gov. Clinton Threlkeld: responded? No, he hasn't yet. And I would be surprised if he does. He's done this well sticking with his economic message. And as you know, in politics and other things, you dance with them (CBS-3) that brung you. CAMPAIGN/PEROT Jennings reports Perot ridiculed Clinton last night in Denver. He criticized Clinton's lack of national experience, but was particularly hard on Bush. Bush cannot win, he said, because it's just not in the cards. Brokaw reports pranksters changed the "HOLLYWOOD" sign to read "PEROTWOOD." There was no charge of dirty tricks from Perot. (NBC-11) Rather: We're down to the final 100 hours of the U.S. presidential campaign. Most polls, for whatever they may be worth, indicate that Gov. Clinton may have a lead. President Bush says he has the momentum and that he is absolutely confident he will close and win. CBS's Bill Lagattuta reports that last night in Denver, Perot couldn't seem to walk away from his charges of dirty tricks. (Perot: "Day after day after day, somebody comes up with some excuse to attack my integrity. My integrity is a matter of record. My integrity was never questioned until the Republican dirty- tricks guys started after it [inaudible]. Let me just say this: It's all silly putty. It's nothing to do with anything that concerns the American people, and I just look at it and marvel.") A group of his former volunteer coordinators today said they may sue Perot for allegedly running credit checks on them and then forcing them out of the campaign. (Cliff Arnebeck, former state chairman: "While we were taking Ross Perot at his word, he was secretly investigating us.") Perot's faithful don't care about this. But if Perot wants to expand beyond his base, he may want to stop sending mixed messages. When Perot learned a Denver TV station was not running one of his programs, he made this billionaire-sized promise. (Perot: "We will get the message through if I have to buy a station here.") Perot made another incredible promise last night. He said if elected, he would have major programs detailed and ready to go on all the issues by Christmas. He offered no specifics. (CBS-Lead) White House News Summary Friday, October 30, 1992 -- B-6 CAMPAIGN/POLLS Jennings reports the ABC News polling unit says that over time, the polls generally converge and agree, but not necessarily on a day- to-day basis. As for the pollsters who work for the candidates, they try to put the best light on the numbers for public consumption. But they do have reputations to protect and they presumably do not shade it for the candidates. Should we believe the polls? History tells us that reputable polling organizations don't often make major mistakes. (ABC-4) CAMPAIGN/MEDIA BASHING CBS's Mark Phillips reports that on the surface, it seems like a simple case of Bush trying to shoot the messenger. (President Bush: "I love my favorite bumper sticker: Annoy the media, reelect Bush. In almost every interview, the media is accused of being biased. (President Bush, "Good Morning, America": "Pure partisan charge, picked up by a lot of bleeding hearts in the media.") At almost every campaign stop, the pollsters are accused of being wrong. (President Bush: "Don't believe these crazy pollsters.") And as for analysts -- (President Bush: "Some crackpot comes on and tells you what to think. We don't need that in the United States. The Republican crowds love it, which is part of the point. (Tom Rosenstiel, Los Angeles Times: "The candidates who are trailing can bash the media because it's a way of energizing their base and say: It's not over, don't give up, the polls are wrong. ") But there's a natural process at play, as well. In politics, as in sports, the team that's ahead appears to be doing things right. The trailing team seems like it can't make its plan work. The debates were a case in point. (TV coverage: President Bush greeting supporters; with Clinton and Perot at debate.) (Kathleen Hall Jamieson, Annenburg School of Communications: "What reporters did was focus on the visual moment at which Bush looked at his watch, as the candidate who wanted to be out of that debate. They could, if he were ahead in the polls, have said, a confident George Bush looks at his watch, fully believing that when the debate was over, he'd go back to the race and win the presidency. Bush has been hammered even by conservative commentators. (Fred Barnes, commentator: "It's really sort of a personal thing. It's his style and his way of going about business and sort of the transparency of the man when he's engaged in politics." (Kevin Phillips, analyst: "Conservatives and conservative Republicans, pundits who know George Bush, they don't think that he's been a worthwhile president. They really don't support him. They dislike him.") Of course, Bush isn't alone in having a rough time with the media. Clinton was virtually written off by charges of marital infidelity and draft evasion. And Perot's media relationship has been anything but cozy. (TV coverage: President Bush greeting supporters and boarding Marine One; Clinton talking to reporters.) -more- White House News Summary Friday, October 30, 1992 -- B-7 Phillips continues: (Perot: "I wish you could have been with me backstage with all those newspeople whining about the fact that I hit them a couple of times tonight.") (TV coverage: President Bush greeting supporters.) But in this game, what goes around comes around. Now that the polls are tightening, Bush's tune has changed. Last week -- (President Bush: "Don't believe these nutty pollsters." Today -- (President Bush: "I'm encouraged with the way these polls that we live and die by are shaping up.") (Jamieson: "In the final week, George Bush gets an advantage from the great press conventions that he's condemning.") In the end, one certain prediction about this campaign can be made. The winner will think the coverage was honest and fair. The losers will blame it, at least in part, for their defeat. (CBS-5) CAMPAIGN/ADS ABC's Jeff Greenfield reports on an ad that is supposed to convince voters that Clinton is thoughtful and prudent. The key message is that change is safe. (TV coverage: Clips from Clinton and Bush ads.) In one Bush ad, Arkansas is depicted as a land of nuclear winter. The message is that if you vote for Clinton, the world will end. In Perot's ads, he tells voters they don't have to vote for a Republican or Democrat. Skeptics say TV ads rarely change many votes in presidential campaigns. So why do the campaigns spend millions on them? There's an old saying that goes: Half of all the money spent on political commercials is wasted; the problem is nobody knows which half. (ABC-5) Brokaw reports Perot and Clinton are shelling out a lot of money for network time on Monday night. All three candidates are spending record amounts for their TV advertising blitz. Perot is spending $23.7 million, Bush $18 million, Clinton $7.1. (CBS-4) CAMPAIGN/NEW JERSEY NBC's Bob Kur reports Clinton's lead in New Jersey has dropped from double figures to single figures in one week. In some towns, the softness of Clinton's support is beginning to show. (Marcie Kleinman, housewife: "I feel that he's going to spend more than he says he's going to spend. I don't think he's getting as much in taxes that he thinks he's going to get. I think that the deficit is going to get greater before it improves that well with Clinton. (Gordon Stewart, executive: "There's a character-credibility issue with Clinton that is a problem. I think he is far too political. Clearly, Perot has turned off former supporters. But there still is plenty of support for Clinton. What is ominous for Clinton is that at this late hour, some who seemed partial to him still are not sure. (Kerry Glennon, marketing researcher: "Clinton is pro-choice and that's very important to me. And he seems to want to get down to business, but I'm having a hard time taking him seriously.") -елош- White House News Summary Friday, October 30, 1992 -- B-8 Kur continues: According to a statewide poll, three in 10 New Jersey voters say they might still change their minds. And 15 percent say they probably won't decide until they get in the voting booth. That's why Clinton is back here tonight and planning to return before election day. (NBC-3) CAMPAIGN/GUN CONTROL ABC's Mark Potter reports on the candidates' gun-control policies. (President Bush: "Today, the fear of crime strikes too many American families.") (Clinton: "We've got to save these kids that are being shot in our schools. (Perot: "People have to be able to defend themselves.' (TV coverage: President Bush walking to stage; Clinton accepting police endorsement.) (Clinton: "We have the obligation to check the backgrounds of people who are going to be carrying guns on our streets.' (President Bush: "I've been more go after the criminal than it is the gun owner.") (Perot: "The Brady Bill, I agree with that it's a timid step in the right direction, but it won't fix it. So why pass a law that won't fix it?") Critics say the Brady Bill won't stop criminals. (Wayne Le Pierre, NRA: "They buy them on the black market or they steal them. Every study shows that. (Sarah Brady: "No, it is not going to cut out all handgun deaths. But it's a start and it's going to save some lives.") Clinton favors the Brady Bill, Perot does not. Bush prefers tougher penalties for crimes committed with guns, and instant computer background checks in gun shops. But this year, the President said he would reluctantly support the Brady Bill as part of an overall crime bill. That bill died earlier this month in the Senate. The bill's sponsor said the President never really wanted a gun-control bill. (Brady: "Very frankly, I hold him responsible for today not having the Brady Bill passed into law.") Another issue is semi-automatic assault weapons. Bush banned the importation of foreign-made assault rifles. But foreign weapons imported before the ban can still be sold over the counter. Also, tens of thousands of domestic versions are legally made and marketed every year. Clinton wants the manufacture banned. (Clinton: "We ought not to have assault weapons, whose only purpose is to kill, in the hands of people on the street when the police don't have a fighting chance. ") Neither Bush nor Perot has called for a manufacturing ban on domestic assault weapons. (TV coverage: President Bush making speech.) Polls show most people support both the Brady Bill and an assault- weapon ban. In fact, many believe the only way to reduce gun deaths significantly is to ban handguns, which none of the candidates is proposing. (ABC-12) -more- White House News Summary Friday, October 30, 1992 -- B-9 CAMPAIGN/EARLY RETURNS NBC's Robert Hager reports the networks say they won't delay projecting a presidential winner. Four years ago, every network made their declarations before polls closed in the Western time zone. Congressional staffers from both parties today asked network lobbyists for voluntary restraint. (NBC-4) ( CAMPAIGN/MOSCOW WAGERING ABC's David Ensor reports some people in Moscow are betting on the U.S. election. Current odds have Clinton at 12.5-10, Bush at 18- 10 and Perot at 36-10. (ABC-13) CAMPAIGN/CHANCELLOR COMMENTARY NBC's John Chancellor comments Bush invokes the memory of Harry Truman, and no one mentions the Reagan Revolution anymore. And when was the last time you heard Bush even say the words "Ronald Reagan." For that matter, have you heard Clinton say much of the suffering of black people in the inner cities. This is not a year for traditional themes in either party. The summation of this year's politics is written on a sign in Clinton's headquarters. The sign reads, "It's the economy, stupid." For the Democrats, hitting the Republicans on the economy is better than singing old party songs about civil rights, union solidarity and urban problems. For the Republicans, the economy has overwhelmed the wedge issues. It's the economy, stupid. (NBC-12) ILLINOIS/SENATE RACE ABC's Cokie Roberts reports Carol Mosely Braun's once-big lead has shrunk dramatically. With Clinton so popular, she is trying to ride his coattails. (TV coverage: Clinton on stage with Braun.) (ABC-6) URBAN POLICY Peter Ueberroth and Mayor Ray Flynn of Boston discuss urban policy. Ueberroth: Nobody cares about the inner city. They listen to the four debates, they don't give a damn about the inner city. Too bad. They're not paying attention to a real cancer. Flynn: Let me tell you something. You are going to see one of the largest votes in the history of any major election coming out of America's cities. And the reason for it is because the people in American cities are hurting economically. (NBC-7) -end of News Summary- Friday Follies AAAH, I THOUGHT I HEARD A NOISE DOWN HERE. YOU DON'T FOOL ME FOR A MINUTE,MR:BUSH MINUTE, MR. BUSH. PERO - a look at politics through the eyes of the political cartoonist - *** "I don't care a straw for your newspaper articles. My constituents don't know how to read. But they can't help seeing them damned pictures." (William Marcy "Boss" Tweed speaking of Thomas Nast, 1871) WHITE HOUSE NEWS SUMMARY SPECIAL EDITION VOLUME IV ISSUE 42 -- October 30, 1992 © TTEWASHNSTON TIMES METAMORPHOSIS - -92 DONT WORRY, FOLKS! I'LL WORK WELL WITH THESE GUYS ABC CONGRESS Time for a joint or two, a little hubba-hubba, a side trip. maybe LONDON MOSSÃOW CLINTON BENEN192 : REWASHINGTON TIMES CARNER UNCLE WILLIE WANTS YOU FOR THE U. S. MILITARY RECENTLY RELEASED EVIDENCE SUGGESTS CLINTON MAY HAVE BEEN IN MOSCOW BEFORE HIS OXFORD TRIP BY MEYER TIMES CORPY MBM5 and CORREL REMEMBER I'M THE CANDIDATE OF CHANGE! NO GULF WAR FREE FREE TERM PRO- TRADE TRADE LIMITS GROWTH PRO- YES UNITS TERM ENVIRONMENT YES CHURCH SCHEDULE 12 NOON: CLINTON WEDDING VOTERS SYMO. HI! THIS IS GEORGE - I THOUGHT WE MIGHT HAVE LUNCH TOGETHER AND you COULD SET TO know THE BETTER-BELL M DEFICIT, UNEMPLOYMENT CLINTON OLUTIONS "SORRY-IT'S EMPTY..." BILL, YOU'RE APPARENTLY THE VOTERS ARE STILL AHEAD WILLING TO OVERLOOK YOUR IN THE POLLS. PATTERN OF CHANGING YOUR STORY THE AND ARE ABOUT TO ELECT YOU shop PRESIDENT. MAY and IF THEY'RE TELLING THE TRUTH. TOLES UMI w MESS SUND. I THOUGHT YOUR GRIN 10@HTZ THE BURGALO your MIGHT MEED A REST. ON THIS REMOTE WMI MOUNTAINTOP? NEVER! HE WONT FIND US, WILL HE? TAKE DOGBARK. SOUTH DAKOTA, FOR EXAMPLE. OH.MY GOD! RUN, 312 LEATHER-CRAFT IMOGENE! IT'S CLINTON WORKERS AT AN ANNUAL WITH MORE SPECIFICS! SALARY OF- Clinton continues to campaign in what are clop! Were a for considered clap Clap! CLAN CUP. CLINTON articles Republican holds strong- CLAR! CLINTON ANOTHER REPLELICAN PLINTON Mike Luckevch ATLANTA CONSTITUTION MANEY Chicagoribune Y'ALL HEAR A GIANT ( SUCKIN' CLINTON SOUND? *GORE* . PEROT Dropped out of the race cause the Republicans were gonna switch the groom at my daughter's Weddin' with a poodle. Can you imagine havin' a poodle for a son-in-Paw? I find that fascinatin! Do you know I have tiny transmitters implanted in my skull ? MikeLuckovich ATLANTA CONSTITUTION ETTA ©1992 FORT WORTH STAR-TELEGRAM HULME NEA- U U EVERYTHING 15 UNDER CONTROL, INSPECTOR PEROT, EXCEPT FOR YOU, U 82 LITTLE KID ROSS PRESIDENT ROSS PEROT SET LOOSE PEROT INCHARGECF OF INA CANDY STORE!" THE C.I.A.AND F.B.I. 110. Di The Hinmi Herald G1992 5000 1000 88800 "Y'SEE,AH KNEW IT!! YOU GUYS REALLY ARE SPYIN' ON ME!!OKAY?!!" DIRTY TRICKSTERS! IXS you 3 E HIDDEN MIKE ROSS PEROT'S WORLD 0 E: $ Paranoia and Common Sense AT merge as the world goes insane TAPPED S THEM US THE THEM THEM SPY PICTURE OF DAUGHTER MONSTER (ALTERED) AVTH B Mike Luckavich ATLANTÀ CONSTITUTIONER Deficit, solved! Urban decay, solved! Unemployment, solved! Health-care mess, 8 solved Is it lunchtime already ?.. President Perot FIRST DAY ON THE JOB. wright EONGRESS LOOK, IT'S SIMPLE! I'LL JUST GO TO CONGRESS, WE'LL TALK, COME UP WITH THE BEST SOLUTION TO OUR PROBLEMS AND FIX 'EM!! ROSS PEROTS PLAN ON WORKiNG WiTH CONGRESS AND GETTING THiNGS MOViNG Ignore him and Maybe Excuse me Maam, he'll go but can WE hold hands? away Excuse me Ma'am. excuse me... You CONGRESS CARTOONIST ENDORSEMENT RE-ELECT BUSH Four years ago, he took the crawn. We read his lips without a frown. WIDE Four years ago,we made him boss; He gave US KWAIL, oh, what a loss. BIG FOREHEAD Our schools still hurt, our cities rot; =u= ©1592 THE ITMS George IS environmental- NOT! Recession grips and tears our land; George draws a line across the sand. POINTY NOSE, His fractured speech and funny smile. NOS His high forehead and wered hairstyle, LONG CHIH STRETCH His kinder, gentler points of light SMILE ME I draw all day and dream at night. Cartoonists all across this land See Clinton-Gore as awfully bland, Alas, dear voters, end my fears I need George Bush-please, FOUR MORE YEARS! HAND LEMAN KAL BACTO. SUN cw SYND. CAN YOU BELIEVE THAT SCREWBALL TEXAS BILLIONAIRE? MR. EL LOOPO?! MR PEROT NOID, OVER THERE? WE'RE TALKING HEY! BIGTIME DIRTY -you know- ALLEGATION WISE, HURLING, SLINGING INFERRING! HOLD ON NOW! NO MUCKRAKER, ME! NO DIRTY TRICKSTER! DEMOCRATS? THOSE (WATCH YOUR WALLETS) TAX & SPENDMEISTERS AFFIRMATIVE!! Republicans?? NEGATORIE!! NEVER!! A NEVER ALL YOU HAVE TO DO IS LAND ONE BIG KNOCKOUT PUNCH. THROW A HAIL MARY PASS AND HITA GRAND SLAM HOME RUN, VAWIES BELERA HEY. 1 WASN'T EXACTLY!! NAVIGATING! (11992 THANK YOU,BUT IVE HAD QUITE NONONONO ! UM ENOUGH NOW I HAVE SOME GUM YOU A LITTLE SONG CAN CHEW! UH,HEY HOW 'BOUT SOME MORE PIZZA? PRETZEL ? HOTDO6? ANYTHING!!! _I FEEL MOMENTUM!!!! 400 WHEN I MAKE A MISTAKE, I ADMIT IT! NOT LIKE THIS TAX-AND-SPEND CROWD! WELL, YOU ITS OK. CANT HAVE IT GEORGE, WE CAN JUST PICK BOTH WAYS WHEN THE AKCHOVIES OFF YOU'RE PRESIDENT! I MADE A MISTAKE, I ADMIT IT AND IT'S NOT GONNA THE MOTHER OF ALL MOTHERS Hi! I'M BILL'S MOM. I Re-elect President NEED WORK BUSH EXPERIENCED PROFESSIONAL SEEKS ANY POSITION. PLEASE HELP RESUME AVAILABLE '92 UPON REQUEST BUSH STAFF The Hiami Herald Unless You Want More Taxes TWO reasons to vote for Bush: CUNTON'S PLAN: TAX SPEND PEROTS PLAN: TWEEDLEDUMB TAX TWEEDLE- TAX DUMBER AFTER A THese GUYS CAREFUL as AREN'T REAL. STUDY of THE IIIII THeY'Re JUST :- CANDIDATES, THE DEBATES, AND A BUNCH DOTS! OF THE RHETORIC, UNDECIDED VOTER EMILY BETH HAMMORLOCK REACHES THE G ONLY POSSIBLE G CONCLUSION, Mike Keefe THE DENVER POST Wat HANDELSHAN Plaz THE THUES ITMS -APOLOGIES TO GREAT PUMPKIN? NO, I'M STILL WAITIN' FOR A GREAT CANDIDATe!.. - ELECTIC DRAWS NEAR AKTRON BEACONJOURNAS92 BOK THERE ARE SEVERAL POINTS TO I DON'T CARE KEEP IN MIND HERE. 1. 1 WANT A KENNEDY look HOW YOU CUT IT, 2. BUT WITH A REAGAN POMPADOUR JUST DO IT. 3. YOUTHFUL 4. BUT MATURE BUT WATCH THE EARS 5. LONGISH 6. BUT CLOSE CROPPED 7. I WANT HIMTO TO PAY FOR IT 8....... V DeMoCRaTS iN THe WHiTe edSTeiN'92 ROCKY MTN. House? WHaT aRe THeY Like? News-Nea Do THEY SPeak ENGLiSH? W WHAT Do THEY eat ? ?... CaN aNYoNe REMEMBER? GRO DEMOCRATS ECONOMIC FITNESS THLUNK! 1-2-3, TAX AND SPEND, SPEND,1-2-3,TAX TAX AND SPEND,AND A TAX AND. at SPiN'92 IF YOUDEMOCRATS WILL STOP TELLING LIES ABOUT THE REPUBLICANS. WE'LLSTOP TELLING THE TRUTH ABOUT YOU! ABE, BABY, THIS SPEECH NEEDS A SOUND BITE ! dry, This lead in is there's jazz it up kinda a bit!! negative nothing about your opponent in here continent yearscore and Four our fathers on this seven WHAT ABOUT MOTHERS? Bad term for family your conceived dedicated terty in anew to nation, SAY values image! U.S.A.OR CAREFUL, WE IMPLY SUPPORT proposition Now wated that allmen the AMERICA DON'T WANT TO work the FOR QUOTAS in a gr eat are engaged equal., in trust theme somewhere WHAT CHANGE REBEL STORM" TO "OPERATION TOO, Y'KNOW THEY VOTE MIKE THOMPSON @ THE STATE RESISTER 92 COFLEY NEWS SERVICE IF THE BUSH AND CLINTON SPEECHWRITERS HAD WORKED FOR LINCOLN THEY ALL LIED To ME! EVERYONE LES TO ME! TWO NEGATIVES= 1 POSITIVE 1 NEGATIVE AND 1POSITIVE = 1 NEGATIVE PUT DOWN!! ME. SOZIS ISS DEMOCRAZY AT VORK, THE ONLY NICE THING ABOUT ELECTIONS ANY MORE IS SEEING THE POLL-TAKERS GETTING HAULED OFF TO THE FUNNY FARM AFTERWARDS.' HOW LONG DO we DO THIS? UNTIL we WIN THE eLeCTION! LIBERALS MODERATES SYNDICATE so SIR IF THE ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY I'D FALL ON MY KNEES AND WEEP UNCONTROLLABLY WITH JOY. POLL THE ECONOMY HeRe MINE TOO! SAME HeRe! IN D.C. MUST Be PICKING WHAT'S YOUR UP-MY BUSINESS HAS LINE OF WORK? NeveR BeeN BETTER! O W ReAL eSTATe MOVING AND RéSUMéS STORAGE W DERING ARKANSAS DEMOCRAT- GAZETTE THAT'S iT! I'M sick OF THE LiBERAL BiAS OF T.V. NEWS. FROM NOW ON I'M Not GONNA THAT'S iT! THE WATCH ANYTHING BUT SPORTS! WORLD SERiES click is OVER YET ANOTHER DEVASTATING Loss TO FOREiGN COMPETITION DURiNG 3 THE BUSH ADMiNiSTRATiON! Look, it's football season, VOTE ME- now..Why don't ELECT ME'S BETTY WELLS you girls find U.S. SENATE something to do, OK ? ALICE SENATE MARGULIES 01992 THE RECORD NEW JERSEY TRADED TO LARRY I'VE FOR DAN MARINO BEEN AND A PLAYER @ WHAT? TO BE NAMED ole LATER The # C. as WHEN FANTASY FOOTBALL GETS OUT of CONTROL Rack MTNNetus AS A CANADIAN, I WAS OUTRAGED AT YOUR COLOR GUARD FLYING OUR FLAG UPSIDE DOWN! HOW COULD THIS HAPPEN?? wordlid U.S.MC. 509 BEATS ME! AMERICA HIJON and THE CARISON MR.DENG and MR.YELTSIN DO LUNCH A The Christian Science Monitor HA, THERE I WAS, WEEDING THE DAISIES IN MY FLOWER GARDEN, HA WHEN SUDDENLY MY HOE STRUCK A METAL OBJECT, HA IT TURNED OUT TO BE THIS OLD TRUNK, HA IMAGINE THAT, HA! GARNER .92 CODE TEWASHINGEN " RECORDS the DER THE HOUSTON RSTO NGUYEN, WE WERE BROKE NATIONAL BANK OF VIETNAM OF It E P.O.M. RA P.O.W. ARCHIVES P.O.W. ARCHIVES !!!! WHO'RE You?! THAT SOUNDS LIKE SOMETHIN' CHRISTIANS neighbor. Love thy A QUEER WOULD Against GAYS HOMOS BE SAY!.. Mike Luckovich Backy's a fairy princess. Jimmy's a clown. Chips a cowboy and Madonnas a naked sado-masochist BY MIKE LUCKOVICH FOR THE ATLANTA CONSTITUTION HALLOWEEN 1965 STAR TRIBUNE ¡¡¡¡MMMMM33333 T/VM/10 $4995 byMADONNA White House News Summary Friday, October 30, 1992 1:30 P.M. EST/12:30 P.M. CST NEWS UPDATE CNN-USA TODAY POLL (New York/Reuter) -- Bill Clinton and President Bush are in a virtual dead heat in the latest CNN/USA Today tracking poll, CNN Headline News reported. The poll gave Clinton 41% and Bush 40% of the "likely voters" surveyed. Support for Ross Perot dropped from 16% to 14%. Among all registered voters, the poll shows Clinton leading 42%-to-36%, with Perot at 16%. ELECTORAL PICTURE (Scripps-Howard) -- Bill Clinton's electoral vote lead has shrunk along with his poll ratings in the final week of the campaign, but he would win the presidency if he doesn't slip any further. Clinton no longer is headed for an electoral vote landslide, however. And if President Bush's surge continues, he could possibly be re-elected. Clinton leads in D.C. and 27 states with 330 electoral votes. Bush leads in 18 states with 158 votes. Five states with 50 votes are a tossup. In the last week, 15 states have improved for Bush. PENNSYLVANIA POLL (Harrisburg/UPI) -- A new statewide poll released today shows Bill Clinton holding a 10-point lead. The poll conducted by Penn State-Harrisburg and Millersville University, showed Clinton with 38%, Bush 28% and Perot with 15% with 19% undecided. PRESIDENT'S CAMPAIGN (Nashville/Robert Burns, AP) -- President Bush attacked Gov. Clinton's economic plan, calling it "trample-down economics" that will lead to a bloated federal bureaucracy and put a regulatory stranglehold on small businesses. "It will not work, and most Americans know it," Bush told a convention of Kentucky Fried Chicken franchise owners at the sprawling Opryland Hotel. Bush was attempting to poke a hole in Clinton's charge that the Republicans throughout the 1980s practiced "trickle-down economics" that benefited the wealthy at the expense of harder economic times for the rest of the people. Bush also attacked Clinton's proposal to address the AIDS crisis by, among other things, appointing an AIDS czar to coordinate federal efforts in combating the disease. "What Gov. Clinton didn't mention is that he's done very little for AIDS in Arkansas," Bush said. "We don't need a bureaucratic czar in the nation's capital. We need more care and compassion in our homes." CLINTON CAMPAIGN (East Rutherford, N.J./Thomas Ferraro, UPI) -- Bill Clinton took his hard-charging drive for the White House to a New Jersey diner and national television early today, before heading off to a get-out-the-vote rally in Pittsburgh, and a town- hall meeting in Detroit. At a diner, Clinton was asked about President Bush's relentless attacks on his character. "All I can tell you is that I got the trust of the people in my state the old fashioned way - - I earned it," he said, citing figures showing strong job growth and low taxes in Arkansas. Most of the questions dealt with the ailing economy as Clinton went from table-to-table, talking to people about their problems in finding work and dealing with rising insurance costs. White House News Summary Friday, October 30, 1992 -- 2 (East Rutherford/Michael Posner, Reuter) -- Holding on to a slim lead over President Bush, Bill Clinton embarked on the final four days of his campaign denying he was unfaithful to his wife. In the final sprint to Tuesday, he said he would raise the level of debate above the volley of name-calling that has peppered the race in recent days. At a diner here, a questioner on ABC's Good Morning America asked Clinton whether someone who was not faithful to his wife could be faithful to the people he serves. "Yes, I think we've seen that in presidents of the past," Clinton quickly responded. "Based on American history, the answer is yes. But if you're implying that I am not (faithful), you are wrong," he added. Clinton also discussed with reporters the name-calling that has highlighted the last few days of the campaign. Bush said earlier this week that his dog Millie knows more about foreign policy than Clinton and Sen. Gore, labeling the pair bozos and crazies. "Forget about me -- Al Gore has been one of the steadiest authorities on foreign policy," Clinton said when asked about those epithets. "Let me say this: There's a way to press and be aggressive without calling them names like calling them 'bozo' and 'crazy, he said, adding he was going to lift the level of campaign rhetoric. (Reuter) -- Clinton slugged back on the question of trust, comparing President Bush's assault on his credibility to Richard Nixon's attacks on John Kennedy in 1960. Clinton asserted on ABC's Good Morning America that Nixon had said of Kennedy, "You can't trust him, which is [as] ironic [as] for Nixon to say, 'You can't trust Kennedy. Clinton didn't suggest Bush was Nixon, but said the president's credibility was questionable. Al Gore also kicked back at the Bush attacks. Responding to Bush's assertion that the Democratic nominees were "crazy," Gore said on NBC's Today that "one definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result." Gore associated that with Bush's unsuccessful efforts to revive the economy, which Gore said "have given us the worst result since Herbert Hoover." FROHNMAYER COMMENTS (Cambridge, Mass./AP) -- Former NEA Chairman John Frohnmayer says the Republican presidential ticket is "anti- art, anti-intellectual and anti-democracy." Frohnmayer, speaking before the MIT Council for the Arts, criticized Vice President Quayle's attacks on what Quayle calls the nation's "cultural elite." "In a democracy, those who think are not the elites," Frohnmayer said. "They are the patriots. Sheep-like followers belong in totalitarian states." HOME SALES (AP) -- Sales of new homes fell 1.0% in September, the first drop in five months despite the lowest mortgage rates in nearly two decades, the government said. ### --- Friday --- October 30, 1992 --- ## ###### ### # # ### # ### ###### ## ## ## ## ## ## # ## ### # # # ### ## ## ### ###### ## ##### ##### --- THE DAILY BRIEFING ON AMERICAN POLITICS --- Updated Each Morning At 11:50 (c) The American Political Network, Inc. 282 North Washington Street, Falls Church, VA (703) 237-5130 NATIONAL POLL UPDATE SPOTLIGHT CNN/USA/GALLUP TRACK 1 pt. P.O.S. (GOP) 3 pts BETTER WATCH SENATE WATCH B/GROUND TRACKING 5 pts ABC TRACKING 9 pts Only weeks ago, Dems were NBC/WSJ of RVs 10 pts dreaming of expanding their Note: CNN and B/GROUND include 57-43 Senate edge to a last night's samples. (#21-25) filibuster-proof majority. IN THE STATES: DETROIT NEWS But the stretch run has has Clinton by 10. (#9) TX shown overall GOP gains. poll has Bush by 8. (#10) Slim Clinton lead in NC. (#8) GOP VULNERABLES: Though Seymour still looks gone, MD: DEM GOV BACKS BUSH (#11) D'Amato is close (some say ahead) and Kasten may be BUSH TO DO MTV SHOW 11/1 (#3) back in the fight. DEM OPEN SEATS: Field HOTLINE TURNOUT STUDY III has Herschensohn in a TIE Pollsters tell how they with Boxer; IL dept. rules screen for likely voters (#13) ; Braun owes Medicaid bucks; HOTLINE look at registration, Chandler narrows Murray's turnout in key states. (#12) wide lead; and Considine has made it a horse race. HOUSE: TROUBLED INCUMBENTS SOUTHERN DEMS: Faircloth Among the nervous: Mavroules catches vulnerable Sanford; (D-MA), Wilson (D-TX), Zeliff Hollings, Fowler face final (R-NH), Erdreich (D-AL). (#18) charges from opponents. DEMS CAN TAKE HEART: From 1996 CAULDRON ALREADY BUBBLING Yeakel's endurance; Rauh's As KEMP unloads on BUCHANAN, lead; DeWine's mean shots convention "family values," at Glenn; AuCoin's late DOLE says he won't rule out move. And of course: DiFi. another bid. (#5) QUOTE OF THE DAY "The blowhard chickened out and blew me off." -- ABC's Sam Donaldson on Perot's "PrimeTime Live" pass, DALLAS MORNING NEWS, 10/30. (#6) THE APN BULLETIN BOARD FROM TODAY'S GREENWIRE: Hill report charges Justice Dept. "discouraged" and blocked pursuit of enviro. crimes. FROM TODAY'S DAILY REPORT CARD: Fourteen school design teams in NYC win grants to create "New Visions" schools. FROM TODAY'S ABORTION REPORT: New poll shows support is "slipping" for MD's pro-choice abortion ballot question. FROM TODAY'S AMERICAN HEALTH LINE: CA voters split on "Death With Dignity" prop. legalizing physician-assisted death. HOTLINE/DATABASE INDEX WHITE HOUSE '92 CLINTON: Bush attacks take him off message; AIDS speech. (#1) PEROT: One more for Larry. (#2) BUSH: "Bozos ... Rathole ... Pissed off ... Ozone man." (#3) ADS: Bush forgoes election eve plea. (#4) GOP '96: Dole doesn't rule it out; Kemp blasts Buchanan. (#5) PRIMETIME LIVE: Donaldson interviews two; snubbed by Perot. (#6) CANDIDATE SCHEDULES (#7) THE TOP TEN HOTLINE SCOREBOARD (#8) MI (#9) TX (#10) MD (#11) ISSUES '92: TURNOUT: Many states witness records, but .... (#12) THE POLLSTERS' GUIDE TO FINDING THE LIKELY VOTERS (#13) SENATE WATCH: SCOREBOARD (#14) IL (#15) NH (#16) NC (#17) HOUSE RACE BRIEFINGS: Vulnerable incumbents, more. (#18) CALIFORNIA CABLE: SENATE "A" (#19) SENATE "B" (#20) POLL UPDATE NBC/WSJ: Clinton 44%, Bush 34%, Perot 15% (all RVs). (#21) ABC TRACKING: Clinton 44%, Bush 35%, Perot 16%. (#22) CNN/USA TODAY: Today's margin down to 1 point. (#23) BATTLEGROUND '92 TRACKING: Today's margin at 5 points. (#24) PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES: GOP benchmark within margin. (#25) TV MONITOR (#26) ???? OVERLOOKED ???? BRETT KIMBERLIN, CALL YOUR OFFICE: Today's TAMPA TRIBUNE runs a front-page story detailing the history of ex-Green Beret Liam Atkins, arrested in Georgetown 10/17 after -- he claims -- threatening to talk about his knowledge of Iran-Contra and his relationship with Bush and WH counsel Boyden Gray. WHITE HOUSE '92 *1 CLINTON: BUSH ATTACKS TAKE HIM OFF MESSAGE; AIDS SPEECH "Warning he was going to 'slam' President Bush" in the final stretch, Clinton "courted the working class and in-city residents" in OH, MI and NJ. In Detroit, Clinton appeared with civil rights legend Rosa Parks. Clinton compared himself to JFK, "who he said was the last politician until this election to 'dare' his generation to change." Though the day was "supposed to be devoted to the economy and the AIDS speech" in NJ, Clinton went off his message and attacked Bush for the 2nd day in a row (Oman, AR DEMOCRAT-GAZETTE, 10/30). Clinton accused Bush of "fearmongering" and "mudslinging": "The man has no core of conviction. The American people see him for what he is: a desperate person who just wants to hold power and doesn't give a rip about them" (mult., 10/30). Those comments came before a "statesmanlike speech on the economy" at U-Toledo; aides tried to "play down" his remarks. Clinton press sec. Dee Dee Myers: "He got up on the wrong side of the bed. I wouldn't read too much into it" (S.F. CHRONICLE, 10/30). NBC's Mitchell: "The Clinton campaign is worried about the inroads Bush is making in" MI and OH, "knowing that whoever wins these two states could very well win the election" (10/29). Mark Shields: "Clinton has almost personalized this race. Time after time it has been criticism of [Bush] for lying about him." David Gergen: "The slug-fest has not served Clinton best" ("M/L," PBS, 10/29). Clinton said he will hit 3-5 states a day until Tues. and "may go all night Monday to hang onto his slight edge" (N.Y. DAILY NEWS, 10/30). A PROMISE IS A PROMISE: "Taking a political risk to keep a campaign promise," Clinton "pledged to move aggressively if he is elected to tackle the AIDS crisis, which he said is 'a disease -- not a vengeance or punishment.' S.F. CHRONICLE's Yoachum notes the contrast to Bush's 10/28 comments "in which he stressed the need for 'behavior modification' to control the spread of AIDS" (10/30). In his 20-minute speech before a "hand-picked audience" of several hundred people in Jersey City, NJ, Clinton "called for increased funding for research and more emphasis on prevention and education. He also called for the [FDA] to expedite the approval of experimental drugs" (Jordan, NEWSDAY, 10/30). CBS' Threlkeld: "Whichever proves stronger, gay-power or gay-backlash this will mark the first presidential campaign in which gays and lesbians have begun voting in a block in their own self interest, and probably not the last" (10/29). ABC's Bury: "By scheduling [the speech] late in the day, the campaign all but guaranteed it would get only limited national exposure" (10/29). UNCLE, CAN YOU SPARE A DIME? "Running short of its $55 million taxpayer-financed warchest in the final days of the election,' the Clinton camp has asked the FEC for permission to borrow more money in anticipation of an expected reimbursement by the U.S. Secret Service. "Such a ruling would be unprecedented. The Bush camp "denounced the request as evidence that the Clinton team had mismanaged public funds and was seeking an unfair late influx of cash to shore up its lead." Bush mgr Fred Malek: "The FEC should deny this panicked request for relief from prolifigate spending by the Clinton-Gore campaign and make Bill Clinton play by the rules." The Clinton camp "insisted it was faced with no more than a temporary cash-flow problem, and blamed its difficulties on inequities that force a challenger to pay up- front Secret Service costs that an incumbent never needs to bear" (Jehl, L.A. TIMES, 10/30). ABOUT THAT MAJOR ANALOGY: The ECONOMIST endorses Clinton: "A keener distinction between Mr. Clinton and Mr. Bush is that one man has exhausted the possibilities of office, while the other pants to put into practice the ideas he has been developing for 12 years; that one has given up, while the other has hardly begun. Despite the risks the possibilities are worth pursuing. Our choice falls on [Clinton]" (10/31 issue). THIS A.M.: Clinton appeared on ABC's "Good Morning America" from East Rutherford, NJ. Clinton was walking from table to table in the Candlestick diner answering questions from an audience. On the trust issue: "It is a general problem whenever a younger person runs for president who's not in, particularly when it's a against an incumbent. When John Kennedy ran Nixon was saying the whole time you can't trust him, you can't trust him, you can't trust him that's the same thing that's going on here. I got the trust of the people of my state the old fashioned way -- I earned it." On whether someone "who's not faithful to his wife can be faithful to the people he serves": "Yes, I think you've seen that in presidents in the past. But if you're implying that I'm not, you're wrong. Based on American history the answer is yes" (10/30). *2 PEROT: ONE MORE FOR LARRY He "repeated his charges of dirty tricks" 10/29 on "Larry King Live" "only hours after his top aides said they wanted to bury the story and focus on other issues" (Garrett, W. TIMES, 10/30). EXCERPTS: King: If we could go back to February 20th, would your answer be different?" Perot: "No, I think it has been a healthy thing for the country." King: "The mistake was leaving, right? You made a mistake." Perot: "Oh, yes." King: "Do you think you can win -- straight-out, flat-out win?" Perot: "Absolutely. Tuesday night, if I'm elected, Wednesday morning I'll be in Washington. And between Wednesday morning and Christmas, we're going to be putting together all the plans that you normally wait until after inauguration to do. And by Christmas, we're going to have very specific plans that we go on the electronic town hall and explain to the American people in detail. And the new health care system, they'll know in technicolor before they have it dumped on them. And they'll either like it or we won't do it. And you can go across the board on everything like that." King: "You got graphs? You didn't bring any." Perot: "Well, no, I sold them to Clinton and Quayle. King: "Are you saying to all the Bush voters, you can't win, vote for me?" Perot: "Absolutely, I'm saying don't throw your vote away, folks. Now he started this, the president started this -- anybody that's not voting for him. But here are the facts, here are the facts. He's history. And the good people who are voting for him, the people who are voting for him are throwing their votes away." King: "Are you saying this race is between you and Clinton?" Perot: "Don't waste your vote, folks, don't waste your vote on election day. Perot/Larry King fan Cher called in: "I'd just like to say that I feel really proud today, I voted for Ross Perot, I did my ballot and I was really nervous and I was really frightened, but my conscience is clear and I did it because I really love my country." King: "I know this voice, who is this?" Perot: "It's Cher." Cher: "I wanted to come in and congratulate you and tell you I love you and God bless you, and I hope people aren't frightened, because that's the way you get controlled in any situation, if they can frighten you out of doing the right thing" (CNN, 10/29). MORE TV: In a taped interview with PBS' David Frost, airing tonight, Perot was asked if he would run in '96. He said he "isn't thinking that way right now" but added, "we'll cross that bridge when we come to it." Perot also "suggests" that he still believes his charges of dirty tricks, adding, "I'm not paranoid. You will never find the word 'paranoid' used once in the thousands, hundreds of thousands of words written about me" (Baer, Balto. SUN, 10/30). ABC's Koppel: "The Perot campaign will undoubtedly keep political junkies musing and mulling over what might have been for years, if not generations to come. If only he had stayed in the race, if only he had restrained some of his stranger impulses. Some of the things Ross Perot has said and done over these past few months are, to put it bluntly -- weird. That's also part of his charm, his attraction ... If he had acted more predictably we might have become bored with the Perot phenomenon long ago." ABC's Greenfield: "It is possible to see in this remarkable Perot campaign a series of contradictory impressions. A candidate who's instinct and actions sometimes are at war with each other There was this year, this time a move that would have made a third party, or independent candidate, properly financed, a really credible alternative. And in my view, Perot could have won. ABC's Dean on the Perot campaign: "You don't really cover Ross Perot, you try to find out where he is. What passes for a campaign schedule here reads more like a TV guide" ("Nightline, 10/30). MONEY TALKS: "No matter how well Ross Perot fares, he has already "secured a place in the annals of U.S. politics" by having spent "more money than anyone else on his political career." Perot has already spent $59 million, and "plans to spend millions more broadcasting his message" before 11/3. On election eve, Perot has spent $2.9 million for network air time, including one-hour slots on NBC both 11/1 and 11/2. Perot's "willingness to dig so deep into his pockets is causing some consternation" not only from the Bush and Clinton camps, but "also from political scientists and campaign reformers." Critics say Perot "has used his money to control the political process, avoiding the kind of public exposure faced by candidates who campaign the old fashioned way" (Demick, PHILA. INQUIRER, 10/30). But Perot officials 10/29 released figures "they said show Perot has been greatly outspent by his two major rivals" and "called for an overhaul of the nation's campaign-finance system." Perot adviser/son-in-law Clay Mulford said that when "soft money" contributions are added to federal matching funds received by Bush and Clinton, the two party candidates "outspent Perot by close to 3-1" for the year (Isikoff, W. POST, 10/30). Bob Novak: "I think he is frozen right now no matter how many millions of dollars he spends." CNN's Bode on effect in CA: "He's playing a hunch. Before he got out of the race in July, [CA] was dead even. Most of the Perot voters went to Clinton. If you see [Perot] starting to hit [Clinton] on being the governor of a small state that raises only chickens then you're going to see a little different end" (10/29). MORE ON THOSE INVESTIGATED VOLUNTEERS: Eight ex-Perot volunteers, from OH, MS and MD, told reporters 10/29 that the Perot campaign had "investigated them and perhaps had broken the law by gaining access to their credit histories without permission." OH atty Cliff Arnebeck: "While we took Ross Perot at his word he was secretly investigating us. While it was happening, we kept saying, This can't be Ross Perot doing this to us.' But my conclusion is it must have been Ross Perot all along.' While the Perot campaign has "acknowledged" hiring a security firm, Perot claims "I never knew we investigated volunteers until I heard it from the press" adding "from time to time, other volunteers would make allegations that a volunteer was stealing or misappropriating something, and under the [FEC] rules, we had to check it out" (Mintz, W. POST, 10/30). STAY TUNED: His 11/1 "comparative" infomerical, on NBC and ABC opposite CBS' "60 Minutes," is titled "Deep Voodoo, Chicken Feathers, and the American Dream" (DALLAS MORNING NEWS, 10/30). *3 BUSH: "BOZOS ... RATHOLE PISSED OFF ... OZONE MAN" All reports continue to characterize Bush as upbeat, at times dipping into "goofy," in his 10/29 Michigan appearances. Bush expanded an earlier theme: "My dog Millie knows more about foreign affairs than these two bozos. It's crazy!" Bush also made this statement, which he later explained referred to TV talking heads: "Harry Truman said there are 50 people covering the [WH], and none of them know enough to pound sand into a rat's hole. Save your wrath for those faithless Republicans and faithless Democrats who wrote me off about two months ago. We are going to show that rathole that we are going to win this election" (NEWSDAY, 10/30). ABC's Hume: "For much of today, the Bush campaign, bursting with last-minute hope and newfound pep, seemed almost out of control. First it was Bruce Willis." Willis, introducing Bush: "I'm pissed off. I am angry that this man can stand up there and say that he is qualified to be Commander-in-Chief." Bush, "getting into the spirit, called his opponents 'two bozos. Video of Bush, gesturing wildly, on Gore: "You know why I call him Ozone Man? This guy is so far off in the environmental extreme, well be up to our neck in owls and out of work for every American. This guy's crazy, he is way out, far out man." Hume: "The partisan crowd loved it all, and [Bush], seeming to feed on that, worked himself up even more in his finale.' Bush: "And let's lead the world to new heights of prosperity for every single American. Don't let them tear it down. [now thumping podium] God bless America" (10/29). NBC's Cochran: "Bush got a much-improved forecast" from MI GOPers. Bush's aides give much of the credit to Ross Perot who cut into Clinton's lead. Bush also feels he has drawn blood with his attacks on Clinton" (10/29). CBS' Spencer: Bush "was in uncommon form today on this, his 11th trip to Michigan" (10/29). Barbara Bush: "I'm surprised George said that, but maybe that was in a heated moment" ("CBS This Morning," 10/30). Gore: "It's an insult to all Americans who understand what the president does not, that there are serious threats to the environment" ("Today," NBC, 10/30). A.M. TV: Bush appeared on NBC's "Today" in a taped interview from Air Force 1. On whether he still thought the pollster were "nutty": "Yeah I do. There's still big spreads, I don't understand it. I was griping about the polls when we were 20 points back 10 days ago ... so I can't suddenly be saying polls are accurate" (10/30). MORE ON THE "TRUST" WAR: Bush chair Bob Teeter: Clinton "now has been two or three days without mentioning his economic plan. He's dealing with our agenda and we are happy for the next four or five days to have this be a referendum on trust" (USA TODAY, 10/30). Bush: "I heard Governor Clinton raise the character issue yesterday. Well, come on in. Let's take it on character and trust" (Balto. SUN, 10/30). PICK YOUR ELECTION MODEL: NBC's Cochran on Bush campaigning with Gerald Ford: "The Ford campaign is the one that haunts the Bush campaign. In the homestretch, Ford came from far behind only to lose in a photo-finish to a southern governor" (10/29). Bush dep. mgr Mary Matalin "rejected" the Ford comparison, calling Bush's campaign "unconventional," and adding Ford "stalled" after the Poland debate gaffe. Unlike Ford, she said, "we are closing the gap" (Bedard, W. TIMES, 10/30). BOSTON HERALD's Miga writes Bush "is sounding a lot like" Dukakis during the final week of his campaign (10/29). PHILA. DAILY NEWS' Grady hears Dukakis echoes, too. To Bush: "You're probably in the grip of a delusion common to the presidential races. Call it the Underdog's Death Rattle Loser's Fever, a surge of energy that turns out to be tantalizingly fraudulent" (10/30). KNIGHT- RIDDER's Green: "What was dismissed as inconceivable just days ago now seems possible, although still unlikely: a come-from- behind victory by President Bush" (PHILA. INQUIRER, 10/30). Mark Shields: "He has moved from one category in American politics which is deadly, that of loser, to another which is colorful and interesting, that of underdog" ("M/L," PBS, 10/30). THE ROCK THE VOTE THING: NBC's Brokaw and CBS' Spencer reported Bush will appear on MTV's "Choose or Lose Wrap-Up Special." He will be interviewed by MTV's Tabitha Soren and the interview will air during the program (10/29). USA TODAY's Flynn notes Bush had earlier said he wouldn't be "a teeny-bopper at 68," and still refuses to do a Q&A with a youth audience, as Clinton and Gore did. Quayle and Perot have refused as well. Soren will interview Bush on the campaign train in WI; it will air 11/1, at 6:30p EST. Soren on the partial come around from the Bush camp: "In the beginning, I don't think they were excited about sharing a nighttime spot with 'Headbanger's Ball' I think they realize now I'm not going to be dancing around in a bustier when I talk to him." Bush spokesperson Alixe Glen: "His message of economic growth and job creation and small business development is uniquely important to voters under 35" (10/30). GIPPS AHOY: Ronald Reagan will campaign for Bush in AZ & NM today, and GA & NC 10/31 (W. TIMES, 10/30). ALSO: BOSTON HERALD endorses Bush: "Change for the sake of change is not the solution" (10/29). BOSTON GLOBE report on the HERALD endorsement notes after a 3-hour meeting with Perot, the HERALD editorial board "concluded that he would be unable to govern" (10/30). W. TIMES' Witham reports evangelical Christians "have the potential to deliver 134 electoral votes" in GA, MO, NC, FL, MI, OH, and TX (10/30). Noting Bruce Willis' "pissed off" introduction, BOSTON GLOBE's Wilkie: "It is difficult to find the majesty of democracy in the final days of the 1992 presidential campaign" (10/30). *4 ADS: BUSH PASSES ON ELECTION-EVE PLEA "Breaking with tradition," Bush will not broadcast an Election Eve appeal on any of the networks. Spokesperson Tony Mitchell: "We believe the advertising that we're doing is what we need at this point." " Some analysts said the reason for the change "is that the Bush campaign is low on money." Clinton and Perot will make pitches on all 3 nets (N.Y. TIMES, 10/30). THE ARKANSAS AD: (See HOTLINE 10/29 for text). ABC's Greenfield: "The words are less important than the horror movie images. In Bill Clinton's [AR] this ad says, it is nuclear winter. Just in case the special effects and creepy sounds don't drive the point home, check out that buzzard sitting on that barren tree. The message? Vote for Clinton and the world will end" (10/29). NBC's Cochran: "His new ad is strictly negative, the announcer never even mentions Bush's name. It's a 30 second assault on Clinton" (10/29). N.Y. TIMES' Berke: "A case study in how accusations can be made and how facts can be used to bolster them or tear them down. In 30 seconds the ad tried to hit Mr. Clinton on the hot-button issues of the environment, children, crime and taxes -- all issues that Mr. Bush has been attacked on" (10/30). KNIGHT-RIDDER's Gunther: "Factual in the narrow sense" (PHILA. INQUIRER, 10/30). CLINTON'S RESPONSE: "Less than a day" after Bush released the AR ad, the Clinton camp produced this 30-sec. response. Graphic text follows announcer; cites under text. ANCR V/O: "CBS, CNN and newspapers across the country call George Bush's ads misleading and wrong. The fact is, under Bill Clinton, [AR] leads the nation in job growth, has the second-lowest tax burden and the lowest government spending in the country. And he's balanced 12 budgets. They've reduced infant mortality and now have the highest graduation rate in the region. And in the past year, [AR's] crime went down. No wonder the Washington Post says George Bush is lying about Bill Clinton's record, and why the Oregonian concluded, 'Frankly, we no longer trust George Bush. N.Y. TIMES' Berke: "Uses many citations to lend it credibility, but sometimes it goes overboard." It was W. POST columnist Judy Mann that said Bush lied. AR has only led the nation in job growth for the past 3 months according to the figures (10/30). W. POST's Kurtz: "The figures are accurate but use time periods most favorable to Clinton" (10/30). Clinton aides said "at least two new" TV ads will run before 11/3, one attacking Bush on the economy and a positive ad with footage from bus trips or Clinton with voters (Kolbert, N.Y. TIMES, 10/30). TEXT OF BUSH TWO-MINUTE AD: White text on black: "Plain Talk. On the Presidency." Bush talking to seated group in front of gigantic U.S. flag covering wall: "In a few days you'll be making your choice for President It's a serious choice, the most important democracy asks us to make. There are many times that the president alone must make tough decisions that affect other people's lives. He is the Commander in Chief, and I want you to think about that. He must have the resolve, the maturity, the moral authority to lead the nation in times of crises. In the White House, and the Oval Office, you cannot be on both sides of every issue. You must make the call and you must lead. And that's what the American people expect from their president. Our economic future, here at home, depends more than ever on competing in a global economy, seizing new opportunities and opening new markets, and that's how we can create more jobs and economic strength. America must have a leader who understands the world, and who's prepared to act. Leaders of other nations, people all over the world, judge America by the character of the president, and the president's word is good. People around the world expect that of the United States. The person you choose to lead America must have certain qualities: Decisiveness, honesty, integrity, consistency. All of you know the job of the presidency is the most serious job in the world and we simply cannot put America's future at risk with a person who's wrong for the job, and with politics that are wrong for America. When you make your choice, choose what's right for America. I need your support, and I ask for your vote." Black screen, in white letters: "President Bush. Commander in Chief." MONEY: "Led by targeted buys" from Clinton-Gore, cable TV revenues from candidates reached $100, 000/day in October, according a survey by Cable Networks, Inc (CNI release, 10/30). All network TV advertising (including FOX) in national, state and local races will reach $330 million by 11/3 -- more than $100M higher than 1988 (Johnson, Balto. SUN, 10/30). ABC's Greenfield: "There's an old saying that goes, half of all the money spent on political commercials is wasted. The problem is, nobody knows which half" (10/29). *5 GOP '96: DOLE DOESN'T RULE IT OUT; KEMP BLASTS BUCHANAN Sen. Bob Dole (R-KS) said he "hears 'a lot of conversation' that people wish he was a candidate for president this year, and some tell him they hope he runs again in 1996.' He "didn't rule out the possibility he could make a third run for the presidency, especially if Bush loses": "Bush is going to win, so that probably won't come up. If he doesn't win, I assume there will be a lot of jockeying around by a lot of people. If I win [re- election to his seat 11/3] and I'm still the Republican leader, then I'll be in the thick of it, trying to figure how we're going to keep everything together." Pressed on whether his age would rule him out (he'll be 73 in '96), Dole: "Oh, you never know. I'm in good health. After you have your prostate out, you're supposed to be real healthy" (AP, 10/29). KEMP: DALLAS MORNING NEWS header: "Jack Kemp criticizes GOP focus." In a "last-minute campaign stop," Sec/HUD Jack Kemp "criticized his party's focus on 'family values' and denounced a convention speech by Patrick Buchanan": "The answer to L.A. is not more guns, it's not more prisons, as Pat Buchanan said He sounded like he wanted to line people up against the wall and shoot them. Buchanan aides said "Kemp's statements are false, self-serving, and badly timed. " Manager/sister Bay Buchanan: "Kemp should really stop pursuing his personal ambitions for 1996 and instead focus on re-electing President Bush in 1992. " But MORNING NEWS' Flournoy writes Kemp "is one of the few Cabinet members to predict publicly that the [GOP] ticket will return." More Kemp: "The convention was overly stressing family values. Creating a better economy is the one thing government can do. It cannot change the values of its people. It can strengthen values but it can't change them" (10/30). *6 PRIMETIME LIVE: DONALDSON INTERVIEWS TWO; SNUBBED BY PEROT Bush and Clinton appeared in taped interviews. Perot had committed to tape an interview, but then declined "citing other commitments" (10/29). NEWSDAY's Kubasik reports "a behind-the- scenes" battle at ABC between Sam Donaldson and Barbara Walters over who would interview Perot. Perot was booked to do a taped interview with Donaldson yesterday and a taped interview with Walters for tonight's "20/20." ABC "determined" Perot was getting too much time, so they asked Walters drop the interview. When Perot heard he had been dropped by "20/20," he "dumped" the Donaldson interview (10/30). Donaldson: "The blowhard chickened out and blew me off" (DALLAS MORNING NEWS, 10/30). CLINTON: On the "the dirty tricks campaign": "Well, I think one of his problems is that he really has made a total separation in his own mind between how he is as a person, how he is as a president, and how he is as a candidate." BUSH AND IRAQ-GATE: Donaldson: "You won the war, no doubt about it, but it was a war that a lot of people think was brought on by the fact that you coddled him." Donaldson then lists loan guarantees to Iraq through the BNL bank. Bush: "Wrong, wrong, and wrong -- wrong, wrong, and wrong. There is no evidence -- and that money does not go to buy arms, that goes to the American farmer. And I had Democrat after Democrat saying please make the loans, including some who are now, for purely partisan purposes, holding a bunch of hearings trying to make something that is noble ignoble. And it is pure partisanship. Right before an election to hear Don Riegle, who dragged his feet on the war, now being holier than thou -- like Henry B. Gonzalez. ... I'm afraid, with all respect, you're picking up on a Democratic frantic charge, so that they will take something that was good and get themselves off the hook for opposing the war." Donaldson: "It's not a Democratic charge -- looking into the fact now that your CIA misled Congress in what it had in its files, corrected the records, and then accused the Justice Dept. of urging it to mislead Congress" (10/29). *7 CANDIDATE SCHEDULES 10/30 10/31 11/1 11/2 11/3 CLINTON ERthfrdNJ DecaturGA ERuthford 501/399-3840 OH, Milwaukee NJ D. Seldin DetroitMI WI ORE MnchstrNH Dalton GA 501/399-3840 Bangor ME KlmazooMI K. McKiernan CT, TN MO,CO,WI BUSH NshvlleTN WI 202/336-7080 StLouisMO train T. Clarke Racine WI trip QUAYLE Casper WY Cedar 202/456-7034 Denver CO Rapids IA D. Beckwith SioxCtyIA DC PEROT Dallas Tampa FL SntaClara Dallas 214/716-6500 TX KansasCty LongBeach TX S. Holman MO CA THE TOP TEN *8 HOTLINE ELECTORAL SCOREBOARD The Scoreboard is The HOTLINE's compilation of the latest trial heat data available from state polling. The number of electors is listed for each state. The symbol (++) indicates a lead beyond the margin of error; (+) a lead within the margin. WARNING: While the Scoreboard does reflect the most recent available state data, 32 of the polls are a week older or more. Therefore, state-by-state results included here tend to lag behind the national tracking polls. STATE BUSH CLINTON PEROT POLLSTER/DATE/MARGIN OF ERROR AL (9) 38 +39 14 ANNISTON STAR, 10/24-25, +/- 3.5% 42 42 10 Alabama Report, 10/24-27, +/- 4% AK (3) +37 30 23 Cromer Group (D), 10/25-26, +/- 4.4% AZ (8) 33 +37 21 ASU/KAET-TV, 10/24-25, +/-4% AR (6) 31 ++52 10 ARK. DEM-GAZETTE, 10/16-18, +/- 3.5% CA (54) 29 ++45 23 Field Inst., 10/25-28, +/- 3.1% CO (8) 28 ++42 21 DENVER POST, 10/25-28, +/- 4.9% CT (8) 27 ++39 21 Quinnipiac, 10/20-25, +/- 4.5% DE (3) 33 +36 19 WKYW-TV/PMR, 10/22-23, +/- 4% DC (3) 17 ++71 8 News 4/PMR, 10/12-14, +/- 4.5% FL (25) +40 37 16 Mason-Dixon, 10/22-25, +/- 3.5% 37 37 20 Bendixen/WLTV, 10/19-22, +/- 4.4% GA (13) 38 +44 12 ATL /WSB-TV, 10/19-21, +/-4% HI (4) 21 ++48 17 ARG, 9/15-10/1, +/- 5% ID (4) ++35 25 28 KTVB-TV/PMR, 10/22-24, +/- 3.5% IL (22) 26 ++41 15 Univ/IL-Chicago, 10/21-25, +/- 3% IN (12) +38 34 18 WISH-TV/PMR, 10/18-19, +/- 3.5% IA (7) 31 +38 15 PMR, 10/20-21, +/- 3.5% KS (6) 32 +37 14 K.C. STAR, 10/12-21, +/- 3.5% KY (8) 32 ++48 14 Lou. COURIER-JOURNAL, 10/20-22, +/-4% LA (9) 36 +41 11 SHREVEPORT TIMES, 10/23-24, +/- 3.5% ME (4) 28 +34 27 WCSH-TV/PMR, 10/25-26, +/- 5% MD (10) 31 ++48 15 GWU/GSPM, 10/20-24, +/- 4% MA (12) 22 ++47 22 HOTLINE sources, 10/25-26, +/- 5% MI (18) +31 30 17 Saginaw Vly State, 10/22-26, +/- 3% 33 ++43 17 DETROIT NEWS, 10/26-28, +/- 4% MN (10) 31 ++40 18 KARE-TV/PMR, 10/21-22, +/- 3.5% MS (7) +41 37 11 NATCHEZ DEMOCRAT, 10/23-24, +/- 3.4% MO (11) 24 ++48 13 K.C. STAR, 10/12-21, +/-3.5% MT (3) 29 ++41 19 Eastern MT College, 10/16-19, +/- 4% NE (5) ++38 29 17 WORLD-HERALD, 10/20-22, +/-3.2% NV (4) 30 +35 27 KLAS-TV/PMR, 10/23-24, +/- 3.5% NH (4) 29 ++44 18 ARG, 10/27-28, +/- 4% 33 +35 21 CONCORD MONITOR, 10/25-26, +/- 3.5% NJ (15) 35 +43 16 Bergen RECORD, 10/20-22, +/- 4% NM (5) 28 ++40 20 ALBUQUERQUE TRIBUNE, 10/21-22, +/- 5% NY (33) 29 ++51 16 Marist Inst., 10/25-26, +/- 4% NC (14) 38 +39 9 Grnsbro N&R, 10/26-27, +/-3.5% 32 +40 10 Raleigh N&O, 10/25-28, +/- 4% ND (3) +35 33 18 Moorehead State, 10/20-22, +/-4.2% OH (21) 33 ++42 19 BEACON JOURNAL, 10/20-24, +/- 4% OK (8) +36 34 15 Kielhorn/KWTV, 10/20-22, +/- 4.1% 34 +41 15 Mason-Dixon/KWTV, 10/21-23, +/- 3.5% 37 37 14 Cole Snodgrass (R), 10/16-23, +/-4.4% OR (7) 24 42 20 OREGONIAN, 10/22-26, +/- 4% 30 ++44 22 KATU-TV, 10/22-24, +/- 4% 30 ++39 22 REGISTER-GUARD/PMR, 10/25-26, +/-3.5% PA (23) 35 +42 17 PITT. POST-GAZETTE, 10/20-25, +/-4.2% 28 ++38 15 PHILA. DAILY NEWS, 10/24-27, +/- 3.2% RI (4) 23 ++44 21 JOURNAL-BULLETIN, 10/21-22, +/- 4% SC (8) ++39 31 10 GREENVILLE NEWS, 10/19-22, +/- 3.4% +41 38 8 NEWS & COURIER, 10/22-23, +/- 3.5% SD (3) 31 +35 20 ARGUS LEADER, 10/21-22, +/- 3.5% TN (11) 35 ++47 5 TN Poll/UTenn, 10/7-12, +/- 3.5% TX (32) ++43 35 15 Mason-Dixon, 10/26-28, +/- 3.5% UT (5) ++48 36 7 ARG, 9/15-10/1, +/- 5% VT (3) 26 ++43 16 BURL. FREE PRESS, 10/20-22, +/- 3.5% VA (13) +43 39 11 WRC-TV/Potomac Survey, 10/24, +/- 4% WA (11) 31 ++40 21 POST-INTELLIGENCER, 10/26-27, +/- 4% WV (5) 26 ++49 15 WCHS-TV/PMR, 10/19-20, +/- 3.5% WI (11) 30 ++39 23 MIL. SENTINEL, 10/23-24, +/-3.5% WY (3) +35 32 23 CASPER STAR-TRIB, 10/22-24, +/- 3.5% ELECTORAL COLLEGE TOTALS: (270 electors needed to win). STATES ELECTORS OUTSIDE M/E STATES ELECTORS Clinton 37 401 Clinton 23 270 Bush 12 120 Bush 4 46 Perot 0 0 Ties 2 17 NOTE: New polls replace yesterday's data in 11 states: AL, CA, CO, ID, MI, NH, NC, PA, & TX. Due to conflicting data -- OK and AL are counted as ties. YESTERDAY'S SCOREBOARD: Clinton led in 25 states with 274 EVs outside the margin of error; he also had 37 states with 392 EVs inside the margin. Bush had 2 states for 10 EVs outside the margin; he had 12 states for 106 EVs inside. *9 MICHIGAN: NEWS POLL PUTS CLINTON AHEAD BY 10 A DETROIT NEWS poll, conducted 10/26-28, surveyed 609 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4% (10/30). 10/26-28 10/1-2 10/26-28 10/1-2 FAV/UNFAV FAV/UNFAV Clinton 43% 46% 56%/ 39% 59%/ 34% Bush 33 33 47 / 46 39 / 56 Perot 17 10 -- / 36 -- / 58 OTHER RECENT POLLS: A MSU poll, conducted 10/20-26 by the school's Inst. for Public Policy/Social Research, surveyed 588 "very likely" voters +/- 4.5% -- Clinton 44%, Bush 29%, Perot 19% (AP, 10/29). Bush chair Bob Teeter, himself a Michigander "said Mr. Bush had pulled even in Macomb County": "We're very close in [MI], and we couldn't be close in [MI] if we weren't close in Macomb" (N.Y. TIMES, 10/30). *10 TEXAS (32): BUSH REGAINS LEAD A Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research poll, conducted 10/26-28, surveyed 800 likely voters; margin of error +/- 3.5% (KPRC-TV, 10/29). MASON-DIXON HOU. CHRON STAR-TELEGRAM 10/26-28 10/20-22 10/18-22 Bush 43% 31 34% Clinton 35 39 36 Perot 15 15 23 Undec. 7 15 *11 MARYLAND (10) : DEM GOV. SCHAEFER ENDORSES BUSH Gov. Wm Donald Schaefer (D), who endorsed Paul Tsongas in the Dem primaries, 'decided last night to bolt from the Democratic fold" and endorse Bush. Schaefer will join Bush today at a rally with with MO Gov. John Ashcroft (R-MO) in St. Louis. Schaefer "has told his associates that he believes Mr. Clinton has tailored his positions to carefully to his own political ambitions" (Balto. SUN, 10/30). (c) 1992 by the American Political Network, Inc. Any reproduction -- by photocopy, FAX, or other form -- in whole or in part, is a violation of federal law and is strictly prohibited without the consent of APN. This prohibition extends to sharing this publication with clients and/or affiliate companies. All rights reserved. Phone: 703/237-5130 FAX: 703/237-5149 Publishers: Doug Bailey, Roger Craver Editor-in-Chief: Robert Balkin Editorial Assts.: Managing Editor: Stephen Bilafer Max Gale Dep. Managing Editor: Melodie Jackson Marc Kaplan Associate Editor: Ned Lilly Charles Todd TV Editor: Vincent Fusco Staff Writers: Amy Silver, Vaughn Ververs, Jason Jarvis ISSUES '92 *12 VOTER TURNOUT: MANY STATES WITNESS RECORD HIGHS, BUT NATIONALLY: USA TODAY reports, "Despite all the hoopla over predictions of record voter registration this year, Washington researchers say numbers so far show only modest gains." Cmte for the Study of the American Electorate Curtis Gans calls it "premature euphoria," and added, registration is only up a "measly" 1% over '88, and is in fact 1% lower than '84. But Gans' info is based only on 29 states and DC, the only numbers available (10/30). Voting experts at the DNC note, "surging registration in several big cities,' such as Chicago, Detroit and Phila. These new registrants, "almost all of them black," are in battleground states. This is mostly due to the efforts of the non-partisan group Project Vote (Shribman/Perry, W.S. JOURNAL, 10/30). Nat'l Coalition on Black Voter Partic. exec. dir. Sonia Jarvis: "We will find that it is up significantly over 1988 but that's because we had the lowest turnout there in over 40 years. Overall, I think we are going to see increases in ... states that are rich in electoral votes" ("M/L," PBS, 10/28). Here's a look at registration and turnout expectations in the HOTLINE Top Ten as well as CO, which like TX has early voting. CALIFORNIA (54) Registration has reached a "record high" (15M) -- an increase of nearly '1M over '88 figures. Absentee ballot requests are also up in some counties. Dem reg. is on the rise this year, hitting 48% to the GOP's 37% and 10% among third parties. Sec/State March Fong Eu is scheduled to release her turnout prediction today. '88 turnout was 10,194,539. COLORADO (8) Dems have been reaping CO's voter-reg. gains in heavy-GOP counties across the metro area. "Political experts say the trend could reverse what happened four years ago, when the heavily [GOP] suburban vote canceled the [Dem's] inner-city edge and gave George Bush a victory in the metro area." A comparison with '88 reg shows Dem gains ranging from 2.3 to 3% in Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Douglas and Jefferson counties. "Unaffiliated voters continue to hold a slight registration edge in the five counties," comprising 35% of those registered, while 34% are GOP and 31% are Dems. But the highest increase has been among Dems. Co's biggest counties have also been "swamped" with early voting and absentee ballot requests (Brimberg, DENVER POST, 10/28). Officials predict turnout to hit 75% up from 70% in '88. FLORIDA (25) FL reports registration at an all-time high of 6,541,825. A 75% turnout is projected -- up from 73% in '88; '76 was highest with 77%. County election offices report a more than normal dispersement of absentee ballots. Officials attribute the increase to FL's nine constitutional amendments and a term limit initiative, as well as the unusual election year. ILLINOIS (22) : Reg. hit an all-time high since IL began keeping records in 1952. Almost 6.7M people have registered -- up from 1988's total of 6.35M. Asst. Assoc. dir. of elections Pat Freeman projects turnout to be between 78-81%; up from the 74% turnout in '88, and the 57% in '90. Freeman noted that the increased interest has to do with the candicacy's of Perot and Dem Senate nominee Carol Moseley Braun. IL also has more offices up for election than they have in 20 yrs. Absentee requests are "a little higher" than in normal presidential years. MICHIGAN (18) An all-time high of 6.15M people have registered, up from 5.95M in '88. MI voter reg. dir. Bradley Wittman projects turnout between 55-60%, "tops." Turnout in '88 was 55.2%, the lowest turnout for a pres. election in 30 yrs. '90 turnout hit 38.7%, right around the national average. NOTE: MI bases their turnout figures on the voting age population. Wittman says absentee requests are "up all over." He noted, MI has the Motor Voter option, which has been up throughout the year. The program, which began in '75, saw its highest month of transactions 9/92. Wittman cited the "unprecedented" number of GOTV drives as one reason for the high number of registrations. NEW JERSEY (15) For the third time ever, NJ registered over 4M people. 1992 was the second highest total with 4,060,000 -- twelve thousand short of the all-time high in '84. NJ elections dir. Midge Trainor expects turnout to be between 75- 79%. Turnout in '88 was 77%; '90 was 54%. Absentee requests were no more than the average for a pres. election year. NEW YORK (33) Sec/State public info officer Dave Flanigan reports the '92 reg. "skyrocketed" over previous years, as have the number of absentee ballot requests. In NYC alone, reg. hit 3,366,000 -- the highest in 20 yrs. Over 700,000 of those are "new" registrants. The number of Ind. registrants in NYC also increased, causing the number of GOP regs. to go down from 15 to 11%. Dem reg's. show little change, remaining around 72%. Turnout for the state has been around 75% for the last 3 elections, but Flanigan expects to top over 90M this year. NORTH CAROLINA (14) : Registration hit an all time high with 3.8 million people registered. NC had their second highest voter registration between the primary and general elections. NC exec. dir. of Elections Alex Brock projects turnout to be between 72- 75%. NC's 1988 turnout was 62% and 1990's turnout was 59%. NOTE: NC bases their turnout figures on the number of registered voters, not the voting age population. Brock sees the increase of GOTV drives by various groups in the state as being a major reason why registration is up and why turnout will be up. Brock also notes, NC's gov. election as being another motivator for the voters. Brock also noted, absentee requests are "prolific," almost every county has exceeded their '84, '88 and '90 request numbers. The deadline for absentee requests is 10/30, so the number should increase even more. OHIO (21) Registration hit an all-time high in OH as well, with 6.5 million people registering. It's almost 300,000 more than 1988's total. Registration was higher in 71 of the 88 counties. Sec/State Bob Taft is projecting a 72% turnout this year, which is right on target to what the turnout was in 1988 and higher than 1990, which had a 61% turnout. Taft attributed record registration to "aggressive registration drives" around the state, along with the added interest of Perot. Absentee requests are at higher levels than in 1988, but exact figures will not be available until at least 21 days after the election. PENNSYLVANIA (23) : PA has witnessed a lot of activity between the primary and general elections than in previous years. While the number of registered voters during the '92 primary was about the same as it was during the '88 primary, the number of registrants has increased by more than 100,000 over the '88 general election figures. The percentage of voters registering as independents are at an all-time high. Bureau of Elections Commis. Wm Boehm expects turnout to be between 53-58% -- up from 50% in '88 and 54% in '84. Monroe Co. Board of Election's Gale Borger noted that absentee ballot requests are also at a "record high" (over 2,000 have been sent out in Monroe Co. alone). TEXAS (32) Registrations are only up by 238,318 from '88 to a total of 8,439,874. But the state's 17-day early voting procedure has prompted a record turnout. 1M had voted as of 10/27. A total of 2M are expected to vote. Though the early voting procedure is 3 years old, voters for the first time can vote in stores and other convenient locations, and on weekends, which has drawn a lot of people who may have not gotten around to it otherwise. TX Dem exec. dir. Ed Martin: "You're going to see a lot of other folks than those CNN likely voters voting." *13 THE POLLSTERS' GUIDE TO FINDING THE LIKELY VOTERS The HOTLINE asked a variety of pollsters to describe how they determine their likely voter sample. ABC'S JEFF ALDERMAN: "Well, that's really sort of a trade secret, isn't it? I can tell you the elements of it, but not how they all come together. Obviously, they have to be registered. From there on we ask questions on likelihood of voting, interest in the race, whether they voted previously. We use those questions to assemble several different possible turnout scenarios -- look at all of them -- and from that we assemble a likely voter group that we seem to think is the most logical. You're never going to get it exactly right. The best thing to do is to take a look at high turnout, low turnout It's going to be in there somewhere between all registered and 1988." TIMES MIRROR'S ANDREW KOHUT: "We use three questions among registered voters: Thought given to the election; past vote; voting experience; and certainty of voting. But we do it separately for younger people and older people to account for the fact that younger people don't have voting history." CBS' KATHY FRANKOVIC: "We have a Probable Electorate model. It includes everyone who is registered and meets a few other criteria. That is they are legitimate registered voters. We ask people whether they've moved in the last few years ... when the last time they voted was, the last time they registered was. That allows us to do what states often do, following state laws -- purging those people who have not voted over the appropriate period of time, in terms of what that state's laws are. So that total number of registered voters is not all the people who say they're registered, but well over 90% of them who actually meet the criteria to be registered in their state. Then on top of it, we assign each of those people a probability that they will vote based on their answers to questions about past vote, intent to vote, interest in the campaign. The probability that is assigned to them comes from previous years' surveys and validation studies that have been done with individuals. In other words, how many in each group of voters actually make it to the polls. It should be said: Not everyone who says they are absolutely likely to vote fits the likely voter scheme and actually make it to the polls; and not everyone who does not sound like a likely voter will not vote. A certain proportion of those will vote. People are given a weighted probability of voting." GALLUP'S LARRY HUGICK: "We ask eight questions if you include voter registration. We start out with people who are registered or who live in a state with same-day registration and plan to register. That gives us roughly 80% of the full adult population. Then we ask seven questions about voting intentions, past voting history, interest in the election and whether people have information about where to vote. On the basis of those questions, we put people on a scale and we divide the sample based on a score so that the top 55% are counted as likely voters. That means we're assuming that 55%, roughly, of the adult population will participate in this election. The turnout four years ago was about 50% and the highest its been since 1972, when the 18-20 year olds got the vote, was 55%. It's a fairly high estimate, if anything, of what the turnout should be. In response to all the questions saying we were unfairly leaving out young voters and so forth, we looked into if we discounted past vote entirely and looked only at questions about this election. We found that there's very little difference if you limited our turnout scale to only those items -- the difference was only one percentage point in the spread between Bush and Clinton." L.A TIMES' SUSAN PINCUS: "We have a screen that takes certainty to vote, intention to vote. We take past history, how one voted in the '84 and '88 elections. Right now, we think the young voter is slipping through a lot of the likely screens, because more of them are interested in this race than they were in the '88 election. So that might make the voter screen tighter We give people different scores. We have intention to vote, the past voting history, the certainty of vote, whether they're certain they're going to vote for their candidate, their interest in the political process or in the presidential campaign. We look at if they're interested in local politics as well. People who will definitely vote or are certain to vote and have keen interest in the election, they get a higher score than the people who have not voted, let's say, in the past two elections and are not certain they are going to vote for their candidate and are not interested in the presidential campaign. So they get less of a score. You just have make an educated guess at where turnout's going to be and you look at past voting history to see what it is." WALL STREET JOURNAL/NBC: W.S. JOUNRAL's Shribman & Perry describe their process: "In reporting the Journal/NBC survey, pollsters Hart and Breglio emphasize that it may be misleading to focus solely on people who vote regularly, because this election could also draw many people who vote less frequently. For that reason, the Journal is reporting the results among both registered voters and regular voters, which under the poll's definition eliminates anyone who hasn't voted in half the elections in the past three years" (WSJ 10/30). SENATE WA *14 SCOREBOARD: NEWEST UPDATE ON SENATE POLLS There are 36 Senate seats up in '92. 34 take place 11/3; ND "B" is 12/4. NOTE: INCUMBENTS are in full caps; D/R indicates current party for open seats; ++ = lead outside margin of error; + = lead within margin. Ex-Gov. Evan Mecham (I) receives 11% in AZ. Green Party's Mary Jordon gets 5% in AK. DEM oto GOP % SURVEY SOURCE AK Smith 38 MURKOWSKI ++51 ANCH. DLY NWS, 10/17-18 AL SHELBY ++69 Sellers 18 BIRM. PST-HER, 10/12-14 AR BUMPERS ++59 Huckabee 31 DEM-GAZETTE, 10/16-18 AZ Sargent 29 MCCAIN ++51 KVOA/KPNX, 10/24-26 CA D Boxer +44 Herschensohn 40 PMR, 10/27-28 CA Feinstein ++50 SEYMOUR 37 PMR, 10/27-28 CO D Campbell +49 Considine 42 D. POST/TV-4, 10/23-26 CT DODD ++52 Johnson 33 Quinnipiac, 10/20-25 FL GRAHAM ++64 Grant 26 WLTV-Miami, 10/19-22 GA FOWLER ++51 Coverdell 35 Mason-Dixon, 10/23-24 HI INOUYE ++56 Reed 34 HON STAR/PMR, 9/21-25 ID R Stallings 37 Kempthorne ++55 PMR/KTVB, 10/22-24 IL D Braun ++44 Williamson 34 U of IL-Chic., 10/21-24 IN Hogsett 30 COATS ++55 PMR/WISH-TV, 10/18-19 IA Jones 24 GRASSLEY ++67 D.M. REGISTER, 10/4-9 KS O'Dell 23 DOLE ++55 K.C. STAR, 10/12-21 KY FORD ++63 Williams 19 WKRC, 10/23-24 LA BREAUX re-elected 10/3. MD MIKULSKI ++60 Keyes 29 Mason-Dixon, 10/22-23 MO Rothmn-Serot 39 BOND ++55 KWMU, 10/19-22 Rothmn-Serot 34 BOND ++51 KTVI/KYTV, 10/26-27 NV REID ++62 Dahl 29 Reid internal, 10/18 NH R Rauh ++47 Gregg 37 ARG, 10/27-28 Rauh +46 Gregg 41 CONCRD MONTR, 10/25-26 Rauh ++47 Gregg 38 UNH, 10/21-26 NY Abrams +38 D'AMATO 35 N.Y. TIMES, 10/24-26 Abrams ++48 D'AMATO 37 NEWSDAY/WABC, 10/23-25 Abrams +47 D'AMATO 41 Marist, 10/25-26 NC SANFORD ++45 Faircloth 37 Grnsboro N&R, 10/26-27 ND D Dorgan ++65 Sydness 28 Univ. of ND, 10/6-7 ND D Conrad ++68 Dalrymple 23 Univ. of ND, 10/9-10 OH GLENN ++44 DeWine 34 Akrn BCN-JRNL, 10/20-24 GLENN +50 DeWine 42 U/Cincinnati, 10/16-25 OK Lewis 31 NICKLES ++55 Mason-Dixon, 10/21-23 OR AuCoin 33 PACKWOOD ++43 KPTV, 10/19-23 AuCoin 38 PACKWOOD +40 OREGONIAN, 10/22-26 AuCoin 43 PACKWOOD +50 KATU/T-H, 10/22-25 PA Yeakel 36 SPECTER +40 Keystone Poll, 10/24-27 Yeakel 40 SPECTER +48 POST-GAZ, 10/22-25 SC HOLLINGS +37 Hartnett 33 GREENVLE NEWS, 10/19-22 HOLLINGS ++49 Hartnett 34 Chrlstn P&C, 10/22-23 SD DASCHLE ++58 Haar 34 ARGUS LEADER, 10/21-22 UT R Owens 37 Bennett ++57 DESERET NEWS, 9/29-30 VT LEAHY ++60 Douglas 29 RUTLAND HRLD, 10/17-18 WA D Murray +48 Chandler 43 SEATTLE P-I, 10/26-27 Murray +46 Chandler 41 SPOKESMAN-REV, 10/24-25 WI Feingold +48 KASTEN 40 MIL. SENTINEL, 10/23-24 Feingold 44 KASTEN +47 St. Norbert, 10/21-25 *15 ILLINOIS: STATE RULES BRAUN MUST PAY IN MOM'S MEDICAID CASE Cook Co. Recorder of Deeds Carol Moseley Braun (D) will have to pay a "substantial sum" to the IL Public Aid dept "as a result of a ruling in the Medicaid controversy" that broke last month. The payment could be as much as $22,000 of the contested $28,750, and would be used to offset government-paid medical costs for Braun's mother. If attys for Braun and her mother produce receipts explaining additional health care expenses the amount could be reduced to a minimum of $12,000. Braun: "The important thing is that I don't think we did anything wrong." Braun put a $28,750 personal loan in an escrow account to be used if the case was decided against her family. Williamson: "It's proof positive that she not only gamed the system but she denied money that should have been paid, that she expected the [IL] taxpayers to make it up" (Hardy/Karwath, CHICAGO TRIBUNE, 10/30). COUNTRY CLUB: According to his aides, Williamson "quit the exclusive Westmoreland Country Club" 5/92 "to avoid being embarrassed by his membership during the campaign." Williamson: "There was no discriminatory policy ... but they didn't have the kind of outreach you would like" (CHICAGO SUN-TIMES, 10/29). *16 NEW HAMPSHIRE: THREE POLLS GIVE RAUH THE LEAD American Research Group surveyed 600 likely voters 10/27-28; margin of error +/- 4% (ARG release, 10/29). Political/Media Research surveyed 815 likely voters 10/25-26; margin of error +/- 3.5% (CONCORD MONITOR, 10/29). Tested: Gov. Judd Gregg (R), businessman John Rauh (D), '90 House candidate Larry Brady (I). CORRECTION: Yesterday's HOTLINE story on the race incorrectly reported the results of the UNH survey. It should have shown Rauh ahead of Gregg, 47-38%. ARG PMR UNH Rauh 47% 46% 47% Gregg 37 41 38 DK/Other 17 13 15 *17 NORTH CAROLINA: POLL HAS LAUCH BREATHING HEAVY ON SANFORD A Raleigh NEWS & OBSERVER/WRAL poll, conducted 10/25-28 by Independent Opinion Research, surveyed 854 likely voters; margin of error +/- 3.5% (10/30). A Greensboro NEWS & RECORD poll, conducted 10/26-27 by Mason-Dixon, surveyed 818 likely voters; margin of error +/- 3.5% (10/30). Tested: Sen. Terry Sanford (D), businessman Lauch Faircloth (R). NEWS & OBSERVER N&R ALL WHITE BLACK Sanford 44% 37% 78% 45% Faircloth 38 46 6 37 DK/other 17 18 16 18 ON THE HOUSE *18 HOUSE RACE BRIEFINGS: AL 02: Davis Penfield surveyed 200 likely voters 10/24-27; margin of error +/- 7% (ALABAMA REPORT, 10/28). Tested: Treasurer George Wallace Jr. (D), businessman Terry Everett (R). Wallace 48% Everett 45 AL 06: Davis Penfield surveyed 301 likely voters 10/24-27; margin of error +/- 5% (ALABAMA REPORT, 10/28). Tested: Rep. Ben Erdreich (D), ex-AL GOP chair Spencer Bachus (R). Bachus 46% Erdreich 44 AZ 06: State Sen. Karan English (D) received the endorsement of Barry Goldwater. English faces ex-Reagan WH aide Doug Wead (R), who served as a liaison to the evangelical community (English release, 10/29). CA 23: SANTA BARBARA NEWS-PRESS and Ventura STAR-FREE PRESS endorse education consultant Anita Perez Ferguson (D) over GOP Rep. Elton Gallegly (NEWS-PRESS, 10/29; STAR-FREE PRESS, 10/28). CO 03: LG Mike Callihan (D) released a letter from Speaker Foley showing Foley's "strong support" for Callihan to gain a place on the Interior Cmte (release, 10/28). Callihan faces House Min. leader Scott McInnis (R). CT 05: Quinnipiac College surveyed 400 likely voters 10/23- 28; margin of error +/- 6% (Quinnipiac release, 10/30). Tested: Rep. Gary Franks (R), Probate Judge James Lawlor (D) and state Rep. Lynn Taborsak (ACP). ACP = A Connecticut Party. Franks 37% Taborsak 17 Lawlor 16 FL 09: Rep. Michael Bilirakis (R) and nurse Cheryl Davis Knapp (D) held their first debate ever, even though they faced each other in '90. Bilirakis: "Change for change sake leads nowhere.' " Knapp: "I've been representing people in the most critical time of their lives. I've been their lifeline" (ST. PETE TIMES, 10/24). GA 04: Hickman-Brown Research surveyed 400 registered voters 10/25-26 for state Sen. Cathey Steinberg (D) ; margin of error +/- 4.9% (ATLANTA CONSTITUTION, 10/29). Tested: Steinberg, ex-state Rep. John Linder (R) Steinberg 50% Linder 41 GA 09: WAGA-TV in Atlanta asked a federal judge to "declare indecent a graphic anti-abortion" TV ad from Daniel Becker (R). WAGA wants to run the ads only between midnight and 6am claiming the material violates FCC rules and is not "fit for family viewing." Becker has made abortion the focus of his campaign against Dem state Sen. Nathan Deal (ATLANTA CONSTITUTION, 10/29). ID 02: Idaho Falls POST REGISTER endorses state Sen. pres. Mike Crapo (R) over Dem Auditor J.D. Williams (10/26). IDAHO STATE JOURNAL also endorses Crapo (10/27). KY 01: After months defending the House's vote for the '89 payraise, businessman Tom Barlow (D) is using a TV ad to say he will oppose all future payraises. Preacher Steve Hamrick (R) "That's about as bad a political move as I've seen anyone make" (Lou. COURIER-JOURNAL, 10/30). C-J endorses Barlow (10/27). KY 05: Louisville COURIER-JOURNAL endorses Rep. Harold Rogers (R) over Dem challenger John Doug Hays (10/27). MA 03: State Rep. Peter Blute (R) is demanding Early admit to bouncing checks at the House bank. "Early responded that if a bounced check means a check that has been returned without payment, he denied 'bouncing' any checks" (BOSTON HERALD, 10/27). GLOBE header: "In retrospect, Early regrets his 'ran like rats' speech" (10/27). GLOBE endorses Early (10/26). The final debate between the two "turned into a free-for-all ... when the format was virtually ignored and issues were used mostly to hurl insults" (GLOBE, 10/29). "Surprisingly, it was Blute who spent much of the evening on the defensive" (HERALD, 10/29). MA 05: In separate WCVB-TV interviews, ex-county prosecutor Martin Meehan (D) and ex-Rep. Paul Cronin (R) "blamed each other" for the negative campaign. Cronin, asked if he was "proud of his attacks" calling Meehan a "political flunkie": "Well, yes and no" (BOSTON GLOBE, 10/26). GLOBE endorses Meehan (10/26). MA 06: With his "political career on the line, If Rep. Nick Mavroules (D) "will make a last-ditch appeal to voters in a televised campaign commercial that directly addresses the corruption charges swirling around him." Mavroules, speaking directly to the camera, claims the federal racketeering and extortion charges are an "unfair political prosecution of lies and innuendo": "My friends, I am innocent. And when all the facts are known, it will be proven. Until then, I ask only that you keep an open mind, consider all the good I have done, and vote for me on Nov. 3." It's the first TV ad Mavroules has made in ten years (Aucoin, BOSTON GLOBE, 10/30). MD 01: In a 10/27 debate Rep. Wayne Gilchrest (R-01) charged Rep. Tom McMillen (D-04) is running a negative campaign. Gilchrest referred to a McMillen/DCCC ad showing "a thumb-sucking child with the words 'Who would lie to this child?'" Then goes on to claim Gilchrest has still not given his House payraise to charities as he said he would do (Balto. EVENING SUN, 10/28). NH 01: ARG surveyed 300 likely voters 10/27-28; margin of error +/- 5.8% (release, 10/29). Tested: Rep. Bill Zeliff (R), ex-Senate min. Leader Bob Preston (D). Zeliff 47% Preston 43 NJ 08: Newark STAR-LEDGER endorses businessman Herbert Klein (D) over GOP state Sen. Joseph Bubba (10/26). N.Y. TIMES' profiles the race, "one of the fiercest and most abrasive campaigns in the state" (10/30). OH 10: Cleveland PLAIN DEALER reports Rep. Mary Rose Oakar (D) manager Bernard Demczuk "has been linked to efforts to get the news media to report" that atty Martin Hoke (R) used cocaine. Lisa Walters, named by anonymous faxes as having knowledge of Hoke's cocaine use: "Bernard has been on my back every day. They have pressured me so much. " Demczuk claims Walters called him: "We told her, 'Do what you think is right. Hoke: "I did not expect this kind of sleaze and ugliness" (10/30). OK 05: TULSA WORLD endorses atty Laurie Williams (D) over state Rep. Ernest Istook (R). Istook defeated Rep. Mickey Edwards (R) in the primary (10/19). OR 01: Peace activist Elizabeth Furse (D) filed an FEC compliant claiming a mailing "last week" by the OR Right to Life PAC for Treasurer Tony Meeker (R) violated the $10,000 PAC limit. OR RTL-PAC spokesperson Lynda Harrington claimed the mailing was not a contribution because it was "produced and distributed without Meeker's knowledge" (Portland OREGONIAN, 10/27). TX 02: The FBI "has confiscated audio tapes mailed to East Texas news media" as the federal prosecutor determines whether Donna Peterson's (R) cellular phone conversations were illegally taped. Rep. Charles Wilson (D) denied any knowledge of the tapes (HOUSTON CHRONICLE, 10/29). Peterson spokesman John Doner: "I wouldn't have any problem calling this Wilson-gate even though I have no hard evidence" (BEAUMONT ENTERPRISE, 10/29). AUSTIN AMERICAN-STATESMAN includes Wilson with Reps. Coleman (D-16) and Bustamante (D-23) as the "most vulnerable" TX incumbents (10/30). VA 08: Rep. Jim Moran (D) said atty Kyle McSlarrow (R) gives "him new appreciation" for 1990 opponent ex-Rep. Stan Parris (R). McSlarrow has Moran "nostalgic for the combative" Parris. Parris has endorsed McSlarrow, and "dismissed" Moran's charge (W. TIMES, 10/27). W. POST endorsed Moran (10/25). W. TIMES endorsed McSlarrow (10/28). VA 11: A new ad from Del. Leslie Byrne (D) states atty Henry Butler (R) was expelled from college. He was in fact suspended for one year. Butler: "I've got an 8-year-old daughter and I can't let her watch television because of this stuff" (W. POST, 10/30). The POST endorses Byrne (10/25). W. TIMES endorses Butler (10/28). WI 06: MILWAUKEE JOURNAL's Jones reports some see the race between Rep. Tom Petri (R-06) and state Rep. Peg Lautenschlager (D) a "possible upset in the making." " Petri has "taken the offense criticising Lautenschlager by name," signaling "an incumbent who realizes he's in a close race" (10/25). CALIFORNIA CABLE *19 SENATE "A": RACE IS TIGHT AS A TUBE SOCK The Field Poll, conducted 10/25-28, surveyed 1,106 likely voters; margin of error 3.1%. A KCAL-TV poll, conducted 10/27-28 by Political/Media Research, surveyed 835 LVs; +/- 3.5%. Tested: Rep. Barbara Boxer (D-06), TV commentator Bruce Herschensohn (R). "A" SEAT Field KCAL Boxer 44% 44% Herschensohn 43 40 Undec. 13 16 Boxer's positive image has been "tarnished" as her support among men has "eroded and her once huge lead collapsed." Pollster Mervin Field: "Boxer may have made a mistake by assuming people knew Herschensohn's (conservative) positions and by letting him define her.' Herschensohn's negative ads whent "unanswered" by Boxer for weeks. Although Boxer previously led in every region of CA, it is now "breaking along classic regional lines" (Roberts, S.F. CHRONICLE, 10/30). MORE: Congressional perks "have proved troublesome" to Boxer. "In recent weeks, Herschensohn has narrowed Boxer's lead in statewide polls by launching a series of television ads that attack her use of taxpayer-financed benefits. And there is not letup in sight." In the last week, Herschensohn's camp began airing its fifth and sixth ads hitting Boxer on the subject. Herschensohn manager Ken Khachigian: "Perks will be an issue until election morning in one form or another." Boxer called Herschensohn "disingenuous" for airing the perks spot, "citing his use of taxpayer-financed benefits in the 1970's as a mid- level employee in the" Nixon admin. (Bunting, L.A. TIMES, 10/29). RIGHT WING: CA's Religious right "is stepping up its support of" Herschensohn, "and their efforts have helped swell his backing statewide, political analysts and religious leaders say." GOP consultant Eileen Padberg: "They've been out in the churches the last three or four weeks, handing out ballots, leafletting the parking lots during services ... I think that's why it (the race) is closing up." Kachigian: "They're very active and they participate very heavily. They've been terrific Bruce does his thing, they just happen to agree" (Pulliam, ORANGE CO. REGISTER, 10/28). *20 SENATE "B": FEINSTEIN HOLDS ONTO WIDE LEAD The Field Poll, conducted 10/25-28, surveyed 1,106 likely voters; margin of error 3.1% (Field release, 10/29). Political/ Media Research surveyed 835 LVs 10/27-28; +/- 3.5% (KCAL, 10/29). Sen. John Seymour (R), ex-S.F. Mayor Dianne Feinstein (D). "B" SEAT PMR Field Feinstein 50% 50% Seymour 37 36 Undec. 13 14 POLL UPDATE *21 WSJ/NBC: CLINTON 44%, BUSH 34%, PEROT 15% (ALL RVs) 1,507 registered voters (RVs), including 1,158 regular voters (those who say they vote half of time or more), surveyed 10/27-28 by Peter Hart (D) and Vince Breglio (R) ; margin of error +/- 2.5% for RVs and +/- 2.9% for regular voters (W.S. JOURNAL release, 10/29). ALL RVs REGULAR VOTERS (ALL RVs 2-DAY) TWO JUST TWO JUST MIGHT 2ND CHOICE DAY 10/28 DAYS 10/28 CHANGE CLIN BUSH PERO CLINTON 44% 45% 43% 43% Clinton vote 22% -- 29% 49% BUSH 34 35 37 38 Bush vote 21% 31% -- 45% PEROT 15 13 13 11 Perot vote 49% 49% 39% -- NOTE: W.S. JOURNAL did not publish the single day numbers for all RVs or for Regular Voters, although USA TODAY, in reporting the poll numbers, cited only the single 10/28 numbers for regular voters, calling them "553 likely voters" with a m/e +/- 5% (USA TODAY, 10/30). W.S. JOURNAL's Rich Jaroslavsky again warned that "regular voters" are not "likely voters" since mischaracterization cuts out about 23% of the sample, and cuts out a disproportionate number of young people. Pollsters Breglio and Hart: "The momentum of the trial heat favors George Bush. [But] in the end, elections always come back to the fundamentals. The fundamentals of this election favor Bill Clinton." W.S. JOURNAL's Shribman & Perry write that for Clinton to win he needs a "solid turnout" of those under age 35 (who split 47-27% for Clinton over Bush), and that Clinton leads by 14% among all women and 20% among women under 40 (10/30). *22 ABC TRACKING: CLINTON 44%, BUSH 35%, PEROT 16% 903 likely voters surveyed 10/27-28, margin of error +/- 4% (ABC release, 10/29). Final survey date shown. 10/28 27 26 25 24 22 21 20 19 18 17 15 14 13 Clinton 44% 42% 41% 44% 44% 45% 43% 44% 46% 49% 49% 44% 44% 45% Bush 35 35 34 33 34 32 32 32 30 30 31 34 37 35 Perot 16 20 21 19 17 15 17 16 15 13 12 12 11 11 DO YOU THINK ... HAS THE KIND OF PERSONALITY AND TEMPERAMENT IT TAKES TO SERVE EFFECTIVELY AS PRESIDENT, OR NOT? LVs 10/28 10/25 10/24 YES NO YES NO YES NO Clinton 57% 36% 56% 38% 57% 38% Bush 58% 35% 57% 40% 58% 40% Perot 32% 57% 40% 51% 38% 54% *23 CNN/USA TODAY TRACK: IT'S A 1-PT LEAD INCLUDING LAST NIGHT 1,657 likely voters surveyed 10/27-28 by Gallup; margin of error +/- 3%. Date shown is the final date of the two-day rolling track (CNN 10/29, USA TODAY, 10/30). Also shown is the earlier tracking of registered voters, with the date shown the final date of 2 or 3 day rolling track (m/e +/- 3%). LVs 10/29 10/28 27 26 Clinton 41% 41% 40% 42% Bush 40 38 38 36 Perot 14 16 16 17 RVs 10/26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 Clinton 42% 42% 39% 41% 43% 44% 45% 47% 48% 46% 47% 47% 47% 46% Bush 31 31 32 30 31 32 32 29 30 34 34 34 32 34 Perot 20 19 20 20 18 17 15 15 15 14 14 13 15 13 Note: CNN's Wm Schneider took a unique analysis to put their Gallup tracking in perspective. He averaged the results of six national polls (CNN/USA TODAY/Gallup tracking, W. POST, L.A. TIMES, NBC/WSJ, BATTLEGROUND tracking and ABC tracking). It produced: CLINTON 43%, BUSH 35%, PEROT 18%. Schneider: "Now the error margin is between 3 and 4 points. So all of the polls were within the margin of error of that average result we just saw. So basically, the polls are strikingly consistent" (10/29). *24 BATTLEGROUND '92 TRACKING: IT'S 5-PT LEAD THRU LAST NIGHT 1,000 registered voters, surveyed 10/26-29 by The Tarrance Group (R); m/e +/- 3%. Battleground surveys 250 RVs nightly to provide a rolling 4-day sample. No polling is done on Fri/Sat. Date shown is final of 4 survey dates. NOTE TO MEDIA: Please cite as "Battleground Poll." This is not a HOTLINE poll. RVs 10/29 28 27 26 25 22 21 20 19 18 15 14 FAV/UNF Clinton 41% 40% 42% 44% 45% 45% 46% 46% 45% 45% 43% 41% 50%/44% Bush 36 35 34 32 32 32 31 32 33 32 33 35 46 50 Perot 17 19 18 18 18 17. 18 17 16 14 15 14 44 46 *25 PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES: GOP BENCHMARK HAS RACE IN MARGIN 800 likely voters surveyed 10/27-29 by P.O.S. -- a GOP firm; margin of error +/- 3.5% (P.O.S. release, 10/30). Clinton 36% Bush 33 Perot 15 Undec. 14 TV MONITOR *26 THIS MORNING: ABC's "GMA" hosted Clinton, a mock debate on the economy with Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan (D-NY), Perot counsel Clay Mulford and SC Gov. Carroll Campell (R). NBC's "Today" hosted Bush, Gore, Bush adviser Charlie Black and Clinton adviser Paul Begala. "CBS This Morning" hosted Barbara Bush, Clinton chair Mickey Cantor and Rep. Vin Weber (R-MN) (10/30). LAST NIGHT: ABC, NBC, CNN led with Clinton. CBS led with Perot. PBS' "M/L" led with Bush and focused on voter registration with Mark Shields, David Gergen, Dem pollster Peter Hart, GOP pollster Ed Goeas, National Coalition on Black Voter Participation exec. dir. Sonia Jarvis, MS Sec/State Dick Molpus and LOWV pres. Becky Cain. CNN: "Crossfire" hosted GOP strategist Haley Barbour, Dem strategist Mark Siegel and Perot council Clay Mulford, "Larry King" hosted Perot. ABC's "Nightline" explored Perot in depth (10/29). PROJECTIONS: NBC's Hagar: "Networks say they won't delay projecting a presidential winner. Some believe this may discourage late western voters form bothering to go to the polls. Which could affect local races." Portland's KOIN manager Mick Schapo, one of 4 CBS affiliates dropping nat'l programming until polls close: "We're going to control our election coverage on a local basis." Rep. Ron Wyden (D-OR) "Given the stakes, I don't think it's too much to ask that the networks show that hour of voluntary restraint." VRS pollster Warren Mitofsky: "There are over 18 studies and not a single one of those studies shows any measurable effect." Hagar noted the House has passed a solution 3 times: close all polls at 9:00p EST and keep the West on Daylight Savings Time for an extra 2 weeks so they would close the same time as Mountain Time. The Senate always rejects that idea, "so tonight, the networks blame Congress, Congress blames the networks and both agree to disagree" (10/29). LETTERMAN'S TOP TEN REASONS CLINTON IS LOSING HIS LEAD: 10. Ill-advised new slogan: "Vote Bush." 9. Bad idea to tell Larry King "I'm going to tax these pinheads till they're drier than Death Valley. 8. Drank too much grape soda. 7. Voters turned off by his vision of "Nation of Hillbillies." 6. Bush's new campaign promise to neuter that guy in the Burger King commercials. 5. Voters wonder how such a handsome man could possibly understand the problems of ordinary people. 4. Promised to hit homerun for sick child, grounded weakly to short. 3. People seem to realize he's kind of a load. 2. More and more people like the idea of a tiny insane millionaire running things. 1. Stockdalemania. ("Latenight," NBC, 10/29). TV SOUNDBITE "What passes for a campaign schedule here reads more like a 'TV Guide. -- ABC's Dean from Perot HQ, "Nightline," ABC, 10/29. * THE HOTLINE ELECTION POOL In coordination with the Graduate School of Political Management and the National Center for Communication Studies at G.W. Univ., The HOTLINE is conducting its Election Year '92 Pundit Pool. The winner's name will be published on the front page of The HOTLINE 11/5. The losers' names will be known only to us. Simply fill out the form and return it via FAX to (202) 234-5233 BEGINNING NOON FRIDAY 10/30. DEADLINE: MONDAY 11/2 7PM. 1) ELECTORAL COLLEGE I Declare each state for the candidate that you think will its electoral college votes. C = Clinton; B = Bush; P = Perot Alabama (9) Montana (3) Alaska (3) Nebraska (5) Arizona (8) Nevada (4) Arkansas (6) New Hampshire (4) California (54) New Jersey (15) Colorado (8) New Mexico (5) Connecticut (8) New York (33) Delaware (3) North Carolina (14) D.C. (3) North Dakota (3) Florida (25) Ohio (21) Georgia (13) Oklahoma (8) Hawaii (4) Oregon (7) Idaho (4) Pennsylvania (23) Illinois (22) Rhode Island (4) Indiana (12) South Carolina (8) Iowa (7) South Dakota (3) Kansas (6) Tennessee (11) Kentucky (8) Texas (32) Louisiana (9) Utah (5) Maine (4) Vermont (3) Maryland (10) Virginia (13) Massachusetts (12) Washington (11) Michigan (18) West Virginia (5) Minnesota (10) Wisconsin (11) Mississippi (7) Wyoming (3) Missouri (11) 2) TIEBREAKER 1: ELECTORAL COLLEGE II Fill in the number of electoral votes expected for each. CLINTON BUSH PEROT 3) TIEBREAKER 2: POPULAR VOTE Fill in the percentage of the national vote expected for each. CLINTON BUSH PEROT #### White House News Summary Friday, October 30, 1992 4:15 P.M. EST/3:15 P.M. CST NEWS UPDATE NEWSWEEK POLL (New York/AP) -- Declining support for Ross Perot has helped President Bush pull into a statistical tie with Bill Clinton in two polls released today that rely on Gallup predictions about who is likely to vote. A Newsweek poll taken Wednesday and Thursday showed Clinton with 41%, Bush with 39% and Perot with 14% among 808 likely voters. The 2-point difference was within the poll's 4-point margin for error. The CNN-Newsweek tracking poll had Clinton ahead 41-40%. PRESIDENT'S TRIP (Nashville/Lori Santos, UPI) -- Assailing the economic proposals of Democrat Bill Clinton, President Bush promised quick action to right the economy before January's presidential inauguration. Setting aside his harsh attacks of recent days, Bush instead sought to portray a possible Clinton administration as relying on an even bigger federal bureaucracy. "Gov. Clinton dreams of expanding the American government, and I want to work to expand the American dream," Bush said. Bush outlined what he called "my action plan" that he promised to set in motion "between November and January." His first step would be to meet with all the new members of Congress "and to shape a legislative package in a way that will guarantee swift passage.' Speaking before a convention of about 2,000 Kentucky Fried Chicken franchise owners, Bush sought to counter Clinton's popular call for economic change. "A vote for'our philosophy is a vote for change that really matters," Bush said. CLINTON/ENVIRONMENTAL SPENDING (Reuter) -- Clinton and his environmentalist running mate Al Gore promise to revolutionize U.S. environmental and energy policies if they win the 1992 election, but it may prove a tougher job than they realize. While both Clinton's backers and critics agree reforms are needed to slash America's voracious appetite for energy, they warn tough economic times mean Clinton will find no quick, cheap fixes. "There is very little margin to go farther in regulation than we have gone. And there is no more money," said one senior Bush official. "The expectations of environmentalists are going through the roof and they are not going to be met." Policy analysts say Clinton will need a lot of ingenuity -- and possibly some courageous tinkering with the tax code -- to achieve his ambitious environmental aims. CLINTON/FOREIGN TAXES (Reuter) -- Clinton has said he wants to raise $45 billion over the next four years by closing tax loopholes on foreign companies, but the firms and most analysts think the money just isn't there. They said Clinton won't be able to raise anywhere near that much unless he tries to change the tax laws on U.S. subsidiaries of foreign firms, a lengthy process that could invite retaliation from abroad. "We don't say that foreign companies shouldn't be paying their fair share," said Nancy McLernon, director of the Washington office of the Organization for International Investment. "But there is no way they (the Clinton camp) can get the $45 billion under existing laws." Robert Shapiro, a vice president at the Progressive Policy Institute think-tank and an adviser to Clinton, said he was confident Clinton can raise the $45 billion. -more- White House News Summary Friday, October 30, 1992 -- 2 S.F. CHRONICLE/ENDORSEMENT (Reuter) -- The San Francisco Chronicle gave a ringing endorsement to President Bush, saying it was of profound importance that Americans return him to the White House. The Chronicle said the basic issue, at a time when the condition of the U.S. economy was crucial, was which party philosophy and which candidate was more economically literate. "The answer is clearly free-market economics and George Bush," it said in an editorial. The newspaper said Clinton is "simply promising that his government will spend money on virtually everyone -- with no discussion whatsoever of the inevitable, unavoidable price tag of increased taxes." A poll by independent pollsters California Poll said today Clinton was leading Bush by 16 points among likely California voters. IRAN ARMS (Reuter) -- A note written in 1986 by Secretary Weinberger at a key January meeting supported the arms-for- hostages dealings with Iran, according to new evidence released today. The Weinberger note undercuts Bush's long-standing claim that he was "out of the loop" and not aware of opposition to the arms deal by Weinberger and Secretary Shultz. The latest evidence was contained in an indictment brought by a federal grand jury under the direction of Lawrence Walsh charging Weinberger with lying to Congress about whether he took notes related to the affair. ### Coleman/Bartlett's daily Washington Focus 10/30 John Coleman, Jr. 222 E. Wisconsin Ave. . Suite 115 Charles L. Bartiett Lake Forest, IL 60045 1529 18th Street, N.W. (708) 234-0082 Washington, DC 20036 TAX:(708) 234-0903 (202) 234-3681 Thank him to FAX: (202) 483-6018 show the Memo to the President from Charley Bartlett > JAB 9 You are red hot Those interview programs are really going well. You come over best in your most benign state of mind, slightly less well when there is an edge of irritation in your voice. But you have the look and manner - and after all the BUSH LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY GEORGE BUSH HANDWRITING status of a President and it is very impressive. I agree very much with Dick Moore that the last shot should be, if possible, a national "Ask GB", if possible with undecided voters. Ed Ney and Doug Bailey also agree that this would be a stronger climax than the two-minute spots, good as they are. Ney asks me to remind you that John Major had great success at the end of his campaign with the middle class tax hike issue. And it is great to do, as you have been doing, what you can to remind the voters that there is a world out there and someobody with experience has to deal with it. The big thing is that you have caught fire and are right on target - to mix a couple of metaphors. Bob Blake says he has never seen anything like the action at the GOP headquarters in Lubbock. Our hearts are travelling with you. October 29. 1992 e.B 10/30/92 Just in over the President's gove for nover To thank cB personal fax. CB asked that it be forwarded. Amy Grant husband: Gary Chapman Baby: Sarah Cannon Chapman Nashville, TN Oct 30, 1992 Mr. you President, on see agrie then a To Amy, Gary and Sarah, too Love from all the Bushes. G Buil 10-30-92 Presidential Phone Calls Aboard Air Force One CANADA INTERNITED SEAL UNITED THE fite to DATE: 10-30-92 TIME: coming / outgoing WITH: Grit Bell SUBJECT: Thank him never god I'm FOLLOW UP: BUSH LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY - GEORGE BUSH HANDWRITING Bell DOCUMENT= 1 OF 1 PAGE = 3 OF 3 and for the visit to Sea Island. He also mentions quail hunting this winter. 12/11/91 GB sent photo of golf game. 3/9/92 GB handwrote a letter about playing golf soon. 4/25/92 GB sends photo of them golfing. notme. 5/5/92 GB thanks for his note on time they spent at CD. 10/5/92 GB handwrites thanks for Savannah endorsement that EHoliday passed along. "Warm regards." I0601 * End of documents in list. Press ENTER or enter another command. 4BÜ Priday October 30, 1992 A15. The Atlanta Journal / The Atlanta Constitution Why this lifelong Democrat is sticking with the president By Griffin B. Bell business before ever thinking about run- ning for public office. Mr. Clinton, by am a lifelong Democrat. I was Geor- contrast, has been running for public of- gia co-chairman of John F. Kennedy's fice his entire adult life. presidential campaign. President Mr. Clinton and the media will not Kennedy appointed me to the federal give Mr. Bush much credit, but I believe bench, where I served for nearly 15 the American people will. During Mr. years. I had the privilege to serve Presi- Bush's presidency, the Berlin Wall came dent Carter and the country as attorney down, Soviet communism has been beat- general. en, Eastern Europe is free, Saddam Hus- Notwithstanding sein was thrown out of Kuwait and his my longstanding par- military machine decimated, and there ty affiliation, I sup- is real hope for peace in the Middle East. port George Bush for president based on Most important to today's immediate his experience, lead- concerns, the U.S. economy is poised for renewal and growth. We have had six ership and integrity. I have known months of steady and sustained growth, George Bush since he including higher growth than expected Griffin Bell was CIA director. I during the last quarter; inflation is way have served as a member of his presi- down; interest rates are way down; un- dential task force to examine ethical employment is slowly dropping; housing standards for federal public service, and starts are way up. Virtually every eco- have had many personal opportunities to nomic indicator is positive. judge his character and ability firsthand. Managing a national economy in a The presidency is an awesome office. global economic world is no easy task; It is not one that should be entrusted there are no easy fixes or quick cures. lightly to just any political figure, no Mr. Bush has been criticized for current matter how polished their speaking economic conditions, but we must not be style, no matter how many times the so frustrated by those conditions as to mantra for "change" is repeated. lose sight of the need for strong, stable, 0 Like all of you, I have lived through experienced leadership to guide our the yearlong Democratic, media-fed country forward during what is general- bashing of Mr. Bush, but I believe the ly conceded to be a worldwide recession. American people in their heart of hearts Mr. Bush calls for lower taxes on know that Mr. Bush is a man of tested working Americans, less government, character and integrity. lower federal spending, tax incentives The gravity of the powerful decision for growth and investment, a world-class that each of us must make in the voting American education system and a com- booth Tuesday is beginning to set in as mon-sense approach to health care. the election draws near. One's whole life is a foreshadowing of In selecting a president, we must rise both character and experience. above political parties and vote for who Just out of high school, George Bush is best for our country. I believe that became a fighter pilot in World War II, there is only one candidate who meets the standard Americans demand and de- where he was a genuine combat hero. Bill Clinton has had no military experi- serve - George Bush. ence, although he had the chance during I am proud to support him. the Vietnam War. Griffin B. Bell, on Atlanta attorney, was U.S. Mr. Bush started a business and attorney general during President Carter's spent half his adult life running that term in the White House. "All the News That's Fit to Print" The New York Times NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 The Youth Vote DEMOCRATS COURT YOUNGEST VOTERS Clinton and Gore Reach Out for Generational Support That Bush Had in '88 By ROBERTO SURO Special to The New York Times BEAUMONT, Tex., Oct. 29 - Al Gore did not do much to draw wild Shift to Democrats Likely applause. All he said was: "George Bush is out of time. Bill Clinton and Al In the 1988 election, more than seven Gore will be automatic for the people." million voters between the ages of 18 Michael Stipe, lead singer of the rock and 24, or 55 percent, picked Mr. Bush, . while 45 percent backed the Democrat- group R.E.M., had just given the Demo- ic candidate, Michael S. Dukakis. This cratic ticket a passionate endorsement before a crowd of several thousand year, Mr. Gans said, they may support young people on the University of Geor- the Democrats with the strength nor- gia campus in Athens, and Mr. Gore's mally seen among black, Jewish and Hispanic voters. response was a wordplay on the title songs of the band's two hit albums. On the level of political imagery, the The event was carefully scripted be- Democrats' appeal is as simple as their ages: Mr. Clinton is 46 and Mr. cause this year the Democrats are Gore, his running mate, is 44. After Mr. mounting a broad, coordinated effort to win over a major voting block that has Gore spoke at the University of Geor- solidly backed Republicans in the last gia, some students were asked by a three Presidential elections and that reporter what they thought of Mr. Gore. One shouted, At least he can has shown strong support this year for relate to us!" Ross Perot, the independent candidate. Vice President Dan Quayle, who is Many voters born in the 1960's and 45, appears to hold little attraction for 70's grew up with Ronald Reagan as young Americans: those in the poll their political hero. But now the Demo- gave him a favorability ratings of 22 crats, with their baby-boomer ticket and message of generational change, percent, lower than that for any top believe they have a chance to engineer candidate except Mr. Perot's running mate, James B. Stockdale. a shift that could make the difference The generational endorsement of the in an increasingly close election. Democratic ticket, of course, is not Making the Campus Circuit automatic. Tripp Greeson, a 19-year- Last week, on the same day. Senator old from Atlanta, said of Mr. Gore: "It Gore spoke outside the University of I doesn't matter much that he's young or Georgia's student union, his wife, Tip- that Michael Stipe likes him. It would- per, Governor Clinton and his wife, n't matter at all if he wasn't out there Hillary, each made separate appear- talking about things we care about." ances on other college campuses Emphasis on the Environment around the country, and that kind of One of the things the Democrats are scheduling is not unusual. Mr. Clinton and Mr. Gore have each appeared on talking about, and the young care about, is the environment. In the MTV's political news program "Choose or Loose." President Bush, Times/CBS News Poll, young voters gave Senator Gore, who has made the who has refused past invitations from the program and once dismissed it as a environment a matter of personal ad- show for "teenyboppers," agreed to- vocacy, favorability ratings of 35 per- cent, the highest of any top candidate. day to appear on it Sunday. For young audiences, the Democrats In the last 48 hours alone, Mr. Gore has campaigned on campuses in Wis- sauce their economic-message with a touch of insurgency reminiscent of the consin, New Mexico and here in Beau- mont, where he spoke today at Lamar George McGovern campaign of 1972, the last Democratic effort to galvanize University. young voters. The effort appears to be paying off. "All over the world we have seen In a New York Times/CBS News Poll conducted last week, Mr. Clinton had young people lead the way to change," is the way Mr. Gore begins a passage the support of 40 percent of the proba- ble voters who are 19 to 30 years old; inserted in his standard speech when he appears before young voters. Mr. Bush had 30 percent. The margin He brings them to their feet by con- between the two candidates was only cluding: "Now it's our turn in the Unit- five percentage points when respond- ents of all ages were tallied. ed States to have change. Young people Mr. Perot had the support of 23 per- in the United States are saying: 'Trick- cent of the young voters in the poll, his le-down economics is really stupid! Let's get rid of it!' strongest showing in any age group; his overall support was 15 percent. The poll, based on telephone interviews with 1,854 adults nationwide, has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. "All the News That's Fit to Print" The New York Times NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 Hillary Clinton From Lawyer to Mother To, Now, All of the Above By FELICITY BARRINGER Special to The New York Times CLEVELAND, Oct. 29 - In the wan- shot going to and from school, being ing days of the campaign, Hillary Clin- shot as they stand on the playgrounds, ton, who has emphasized two distinct being caught in random gunfire," Mrs. aspects of her personality, is putting Clinton told 40 ministers here at the everything together for the stretch First United Methodist Church on run: highlighting her command of poli- Wednesday. cy, her confident assertiveness and her "I think it is a government's primary husband, the Presidential candidate. responsibility to keep its citizens safe,' It is as if she has had three incarna- she went on. "And my husband be- tions during the campaign. There was lieves that as well." Hillary I, the accomplished lawyer who Return to Assertiveness spoke of herself as part of a "Blue primary developer of the values and Light special," saying "people call us Such language is a far cry from the the mindset of a child," Mrs. Clinton two-for-one." cookie recipies that she was offering a said. "But as the Catholic bishops said, After the conventions, there was Hil- few months ago. They are closer to the a child is a result both of his or her lary II, whom the Cuyahoga County assertive image that led an article in family's values and the policies of the Commissioner Mary Boyle called "the the conservative journal The Ameri- nation in which that child resides. good wife of a candidate, the good can Spectator to label her "Lady Mac- "So what 1 would like to do is to end family member of a candidate, with beth of Little Rock" and "the Winnie the false debate, end the finger-point- her special interest, children." She Mandela of American politics." ing, end the blaming." added, "Basically she had been In Mrs. Clinton's most-quoted piece Mary Rose Oakar, Cleveland's Dem- tamed." of writing, published in the Harvard ocratic Congresswoman, one of Mrs. Finally, there is Hillary III, a hybrid Educational Review 19 years ago, she of the earlier images. More and more wrote that children's rights have been Clinton's supporters, said later: "I of the professional women who form bypassed. "The basic rationale for de- think she's struck a happy balance. the core of her rallies from Cleveland priving people of rights in a dependen- Maybe she was a little extreme in to Trenton to Annapolis, Md., agree cy relationship is that certain individ- being self-assertive early on. But she's with Patsy Morrison, a small-business uals are incapable or undeserving of extremely comfortable now. She's be- owner in Cleveland: "She's combined the right to take care of themselves ing who she is." the two. She's her own person who and consequently need social institu- Daniel Wattenberg, author of The happens to be the wife of a candidate." tions specifically designed to safe- American Spectator article, says he Her aides argue that Mrs. Clinton guard their position." has also seen "a few signs here and has not changed; only the perceptions She went on, "Along with the family, there" that Hillary's personal voice is of the voters have, they say. "The past and present examples of such more audible. American people are just getting to arrangements include marriage, slav- know her better," said Lisa Caputo, ery and the Indian reservation "My belief is that after the election Mrs. Clinton's press secretary. "She's system." she will emerge as a power center in the same person she always has been." The Republicans' gleeful repetition the White House. If so, it will be a of these words, often out of context, power center with a new left flavor." Her Own Voice became a staple in the "family values" Amy Anderson, of Durwood, Md., One clue to where she stands is her theme of their convention. who attended a rally on Tuesday in language. Although most of her sen- One of the clearest indications of Annapolis, said, "I don't think there tences revolve around the plans of "my Mrs. Clinton's return to a more asser- should be any limits on her as First husband," Hillary Clinton's personal tive mode came as she was speaking at Lady. I don't think there will be be- voice - and the pronoun "I" - can the ministers' gathering, when she cause we're looking at a different kind often be heard on such issues as keep- cited a pastoral letter from the Nation- of candidate." ing abortion legal or keeping streets al Conference of Catholic Bishops. safe. "I don't know anyone who argues "I'm sick and tired of children being with the idea that the family is the "All the News That's Fit to Print" The New York Times NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 Clinton Shifting His Focus From Issues to Adopt Attack Strategy of a Campaign Underdog By GWEN IFILL Special to The New York Times SECAUCUS, N.J. Oct. 29 - Respond- message about the economy and jobs, ing to a tightened Presidential race, and for him to deliver a long-awaited Gov. Bill Clinton today essentially speech on AIDS in Jersey City. In the a scrapped plans to spend the final days speech in the rotunda of the Hudson of his campaign concentrating on sub- County courthouse this evening, Mr. stantive issues and instead hops- Clinton linked the need for Federal cotched to three states and directed his action on AIDS to steps he has advocat- firepower at President Bush. ed on other health care issues, includ- Even as he sought to strike a sober ing breast and ovarian cancer. But he tone for speeches on the economy and made a special plea for new attention on AIDS research, Mr. Clinton cast his to AIDS and urged an end to prejudice policy discussion in terms of what Mr. directed at those who carry the virus. Bush lacks. And although he still leads in most polls, Mr. Clinton said for the Plans for War on AIDS first time in weeks that he considered "We must all remember that for all himself an "underdog" in the race for its terror and far reach, it is still a President. disease," Mr. Clinton said. "It is not "When Mr. Bush tells us we have to vengeance or punishment or just des- rejoice at our economic plight, I think serts. It is an illness. We have fought we have to tell him it's time to move illnesses before, and we must fight this beyond the passivity and complacency one now." of his Presidency and of this cam- Mr. Clinton said he would increase paign," he said during a speech at the financing for AIDS research, enforce University of Toledo. anti-discrimination laws, appoint a Crisscrossing Campaign Paths Continued on Page A18, Column I Mr. Bush and Mr. Clinton have been all but colliding with each other as they jet from one must-win state to another. Today, Mr. Clinton followed Mr. Bush by a day in Toledo, then campaigned at the same time as the President in a different part of Michigan/ Then he spent the afternoon in New Jersey. "The American people are going to have to think a long time before they want four more years of this," Mr. Clinton said of the Bush Administra- tion. "It will be a miserable experience for them, and I don't think they' going to go through with it." When a supporter wished Mr. Clinton good luck in Ohio and Michigan as he boarded a plane for Newark, he re- sponded: "If I win both of them, this election's over." Mr. Clinton's campaign day reflect- ed the strategic tug-of-war that is going on within the Democratic campaign. Plans called for him to stick to a loftier "All the News That's Fit to Print" The York Times NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 The Democrats Putting Issues Aside, Clinton Attacks Bush Continued From Page Al Federal official to oversee the Govern- ment's response and mount a "loud, clear and consistent war on AIDS." He also said children should be taught about how the AIDS virus is contracted "at the earliest practical time." "I do believe the instruction of our children should be based on values that we all share," he said. "I believe chil- the never called, American never Harry called, Truman was for "There average people. press corps. He dishonest fought by will Bush say is no campaign, Mr. standard of truth in Although anything. Clinton said. the dren should be discouraged from hav- ton have has been also his much more attacks on Ross "He rot ent's has candidacy, questioned the muted, Mr. Clin- Perot ing premature sexual conduct and his "I bleakest style wish days when he was struggling campaign Harry Truman. elected. "When Mr. been "spending charging that anything to Mr. get Pe- independ- this and is as something good frightened as Bush looks America at and an anxious from ever having any conduct with than worse it about gets, that tells us Clinton sald. anything I could his ever say, Mr. Presidency says needles carrying drugs. But they must be told that this killer can kill them." Mr. Clinton criticized the Justice De- partment support for allowing private employers to cut off insurance cover- age for employees who are H.I.V. in- fected. Campaign aides had planned for Mr. Clinton to stick to this loftier tone throughout the day, but after he left the courthouse, he returned to the attack, launching an additional verbal assault in New of Hampshire. his primary in the campaign it aide. was "In Tuesday, we that we used to say every 1988 with said Dukakis, one weeks. Now wished we day at this time weeks ago.' I wish this had had two ended two more 'No Standard of Truth' tive Clinton Throwing oratory at his Mr. entire arsenal of mongering" accused the Bush today, Mr. nega- "He has made and President 'mudslinging. of has no record, he core of said in up Toledo. charges "The about my "fear- conviction. This Is not man on Mr. Bush outside. Apparently stung by the President's energetic recent attacks, Mr. Clinton counterpunched for the second straight day, vowing, "We're going to slam him home in the next five days." Shifting to the Offense At a college, a downtown convention center and a small-town courthouse, the Governor's remarks, both on and' off the stage, reflected new turmoil in a campaign that has been sailing well ahead of Mr. Bush in public opinion polls for weeks. Michigan, where Mr. Clinton ap- peared today, is a classic example of the state of flux that has marked the recent days. Democratic officials there and in Ohio said Mr. Clinton's support dropped significantly after Mr. Perot Clinton plays the underdog as his re-entered the race. lead narrows. Mr. between Mr. Begala tried to Clinton's draw a contrast bordering President's. "George tactics and the Mr. said. on Clinton the Bush hysterical,' is out Mr. Be- there "It's all about trust," Donald a first fled in natural recent dismissing has the days as seemed well. tightening more After at unset- Sweitzer, a national Democratic offi- were expected, more Mr. Clinton's Phenomenon that remarks had race been as aggressive, reminiscent of today cial who is following the Michigan cam- paign said. "On issues, it's all moving gala the other way. Bush is wrong on every issue with these voters." The Clinton campaign today began broadcasting two new 30-second com- mercials. One uses blurry television images promises of four President Bush his sobor people they Presidency. will be The years ago, "better like off" telling making four years later. announcer ad saying, closes "Well, with. unde Another ad, which How're you doing? it's they direct completed at 4 A.M. Clinton aides that was response to a Bush today, was said day attacking the broadcast beginning commercial sources Arkansas. The ad Governor's record Wednes- cial to accuse uses Bush commer- in third-party of being the dishonest. "Harry Truman going he's Clinton "If he's to live by it, strategist and said said it, Paul and Begala, a we're going to tell going the to tell truth lies about about him. us. speechwriter. we're "All the News That's Fit to Print" The New York Times NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 The Vice President In the Final Push, Quayle Rallies Turn Into a Blur By KAREN DE WITT THE POLLS BUSH LEADS his time pressing the flesh of Sunday Specialio The New York Times President Bush might be trailing after-church diners. AUGUSTA, Ga., Oct. 25 Vice Pres- Gov. Bill Clinton in the popular Ident Dan Quayle was heading into the One woman, not aware that the cof- polls, but he seems to have a com- home stretch of his standard speech at fee was not the point of the visit, chided manding lead among business exec- a Bush-Quayle rally here when he the entourage of reporters and techni- utives. Business Day, page DI. threw in his usual charge that Gov. Bill cians for not letting the Vice President Clinton "waffles" on issues. sit down and eat. He had shaken her hand, she added, To the dismay of Secret Service the South going for George Bush? Is and remarked that he was "a very nice agents, a dozen frozen waffles flew up America going for George Bush?" man" who would probably get her vote. from the audience. Mr. Quayle caught The students, hoisting red, white and one and the friendly crowd roared its blue Bush-Quayle campaign signs, By the end of the day Mr. Quayle had approval. The waffles were a rare un- yelled back in affirmation. grasped the hands of more than 300 scripted moment for the Vice Presi- people in stops at the Calvary Baptist dent in his campaign for re-election, Campaigns take on a sameness in Temple, the Savannah Christian Pre- although they have now become a sig- their final days, a numbing repetition paratory School, two political rallies, a nature part of an event when he men- of speeches and events. For a rally like fund-raising event here in Augusta, the tions waffling by the opposition. the rally here at the Augusta Mall, the mall visit and an air show. - In the homestretch of the campaign plan called for open press coverage, Political Incantation the days with Mr. Quayle have become 1,000 people in attendance, off-stage a blur of sameness: rope-line greet- announcement, brief remarks and rope Much of a campaign consists of repe- line. ings, handshakes, local interviews, ral- tition that becomes almost incantation. lies and the oxymoronic "scheduled "Is this crowd pumped up?" Mr. Impromptus" with voters in shopping Mr. Quayle touches hundreds upon Quayle roared again to Bush-Quayle malls and restaurants. hundreds of people along rope lines in supporters here. "Is this crowd fired this campaign. Since the campaign up? Is Augusta going for George Bush? "Why am, I here?' Mr. Quayle has started, he said, he has surely shaken Is Georgia going for George Bush? Is been known to ask his aides as Air thousands and thousands of hands. the South going for George Bush? Is Force Two touches down in yet another America going for George Bush?" state. "Is this one it would be nice to Meeting Mr. Wonderful win, or one We must win?" It was the same, with appropriate 42 A Must Win' State But for Susan Davis, an unemployed substitutions, in New Jersey, Pennsyl- secretary who happened to be in the vania, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Missou- S & S restaurant in Savannah when Mr. ri, Illinois and Wisconsin. Bill Clinton Georgia is in the "must win" catego- Quayle slopped, shaking hands with the cannot be trusted. Bill Clinton will tax. ry, so Mr. Quayle, fueled by the red licorice he snacks on, was here for the Vice President was a singular event. Lately, Mr. Quayle has begun adding second of three visits scheduled before "He may be out in right field, but at "courage" to his theme of "trust" in Election Day. At the Savannah Chris- least he's right," said Ms. Davis, a his appeals to voters. "Have courage to tian Preparatory School he rallied an staunch Republican. "I think he's won- stand up for George Bush," he said audience of mostly students who are derful." here. "Have courage to stand up for too young to vote. yourself; have courage to stand up for "Is this crowd fired up?" Mr. Quayle Mr. Quayle also got his standard cup your families; have courage to stand of coffee black, no sugar. He always -asked. "Is this crowd pumped up? Is offers to pay. And as usual, on this stop up for your values; have courage to do what is right for America, and that Savannah going for George Bush? Is he mostly ignored his coffee and spent means vote for George Bush." "All the News That's Fit to Print" The New York Times NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 Candidates Aim at Crucial States, and Each Other Bush, Buoyed by Polls, Scrambles to Rebuild Winning Coalition By MICHAEL WINES Special to The New York Times DETROIT, Oct. 29 - With some new polls providing encouragement, Presi- dent Bush and his strategists have be- gun scrambling, hoping in the five days left them to rebuild the shattered bloc of Republicans and disaffected Demo- crats that won the White House in 1988. That is why they came to Michigan today. Mr. Bush returned to an old well- spring of Democratic support, subur- ban Macomb County, to sound the alarms about high taxes and low char- acter that he hopes will drive voters away from Bill Clinton and into his camp. Hoarse and shouting over the crowd of 10,000 people, Mr. Bush stripped his message to its most pointed and stri- dent essence. 'Crazy, Way Out, Far Out' He accused Mr. Clinton of having "given up on reducing the deficit." Arms flailing, he denounced Mr. Clin- ton's running mate, Senator Al Gore, as an environmental extremist who is "crazy, way out, far out, man." He underscored his "big difference" with people who would protest the Viet- nam war overseas, as Mr. Clinton did, "when your brother's in prison in Ha- noi or your kids are being drafted out of a ghetto somewhere." Twice, he dismissed his two rivals with contemptuous remarks, declaring that "my dog Millie knows more about foreign affairs than these two bozos." And he turned one of Mr. Clinton's favorite anti-Bush buzzwords against him, calling a band of sign-waving Clin- ton supporters at one Bush rally "a little pathetic." "They feel it slipping away from them," he exulted. They know we're going to win the election." The crowd Continued on Page A17. Column ! "All the News That's Fit to Print" The New York Times NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 Bush Rushing to Rebuild '88 Coalition Continued From Page Al at a cavernous junior-college field- house roared its approval. Later, speaking to an outdoor rally in Grand Rapids dominated by a huge, pink, elephant-shaped balloon, Mr. Bush punched away at Mr. Clinton's credibility again, saying, "What's catching up with him now - what's catching up with him just as we go down to the wire - is this pattern of deception." "He said on April 17, 'I'm going to reveal my draft records,' and we have- n't seen them yet," he said: "You can't say that you' going to have one posi- tion than then another. You've got to stand up and take a position and lead. And that's what being President is all about." The President whose hyperbolic ora- tory brought crowds to their feet today bears scant resemblance to the George Bush who has repeatedly decried the "ugly" nature of this campaign. But Mr. Bush is employing this saw- tooth political style for a compelling reason: he and his aides believe it works. They were asserting today that their attacks have shifted the focus of the political debate to the issue of charac- ter, where the White House wants to steer the debate, and to the best way to revive the economy, where they feel they are on at least equal footing. Character and Trust That means Mr. Clinton is spending less time talking about the economy's current sorry state, Mr. Bush's weak spot, and more time defending his own flanks. "I heard Governor Clinton raise the character question yesterday," Mr. Bush said today. "Well, come on in. Let's take it on character and trust." His campaign spokeswoman, Torie Clarke, added, "We'll take them on on Jose R. Lopez/The New York Times that any day, and we'll win hands- President Bush was joined yesterday by former President Gerald R. down." Ford after arriving at the airport in Grand Rapids, Mich. In fact, Mr. Bush has begun to leaven his assaults on Mr. Clinton with large doses of can-do optimism about the future, something glaringly absent un- ers to determine how much Mr. Clin- tion of his national standing as well. til this month. ton's package of tax proposals "could" They are the archetype of the financial- The President has seized on Tues- cost people in their income brackets. ly struggling, anti-tax Democrats who day's report of a healthy rise in eco- Invariably, the totals are in the thou- deserted Jimmy Carter for Ronald sands of dollars. Reagan in 1980, and stayed to vote for nomic output as evidence of a looming American revival, even if voters have Mr. Clinton's economic proposals, Mr. Bush in 1988. yet to notice it. Mr. Teeter said, "are the antithesis of With the economy lagging most of "There was very good news for this what they want to hear." this year, conventional wisdom this country two days ago, and they hate How much ground Mr. Bush has year has held that these Reagan Demo- it," he told 9,800 supporters in Grand gained in recent polls depends on which crats were rejecting Mr. Bush and Rapids today. "The only way they can of the wildly varying surveys one swinging back to their party. reads. win is to convince America that we're in a recession. We had growth of 2.7 The "tracking poll" conducted for But the President's campaign chair- CNN and USA Today showed Mr. Clin- man, Robert M. Teeter, said in a tele- percent. We have grown for six quar- ters. And now let's keep it going. ton preferred over President Bush by phone interview today that it was not Later, he spoke of "a worldwide re- three percentage points today, 41 per- happening. He said Mr. Bush had covery led by the United States. that cent to 38 percent. with 16 percent pulled even in Macomb County. which will "bring jobs 10 more Americans." Ross and 5 percention strongly in favor of Bill Bush's andes assent that the com- decided or supporting another cand:- Clinton 320. bination of slashing attacks and hope- date. The margin of sampling error close in Michigan, and a we Mr poll. new Macomb," be said. ularity and lowering Mr. Clinten's The President's campaign chair- viewed each day and reports are Whether trends are sufficiently Robert M. Teeter, said today that combined results for two or the believed. Mr. Clinton's lead was more days at a time. Tuesday's election remains unclear. shriveling in Michigan. In large part, When the findings of the most recent But Mr. Teeter, who has every reason he said. that is because Mr. Bush has major national polls are averaged, Mr. to appear optimistic, argued that the shone a spotlight on Mr. Clinton's Clinton leads Mr. Bush by 43 to 36 race was now close enough for Mr. pledge billion. to raise Federal taxes by $150 percent, with 16 percent for Mr. Perot. Bush to begin consolidating his hold on the normally Republican South and But the President was cheered this Mr. Clinton says that new burden West, regions that Mr. Clinton has morning by a local television station will fall mostly on the well-off and on strongly contested all summer and fall. survey that showed him in a statistical foreign companies. Bush strategists "If we can get that base back of 190 tie with Mr. Clinton in Michigan. have responded by blanketing rallies to 210 electoral votes in the West and Macomb County's blue-collar con- with cardboard devices. akin to simple South," he said, "then you can go fight servatives are the key to Mr. Bush's slide rules, that supposedly enable vot- him for those 60 or 70 other votes you failure or success here, and an indica- need to win an election." CAMPAIGN ALMANAC Countdown to Election Day That's Fit to GEORGE BUSH BILL CLINTON ROSS PEROT ON TELEVISION "All the News Buoyed by several new polls, With the Presidential race tight- Mr. Perot's aides tried to diffuse President Bush made a foray into ening, Governor Clinton hops- two issues that they fear have President Bush 8 A.M., NBC an old source of Democratic cotched to three states, Ohio, Mich- slowed his momentum: the accu- (Channel 4 in New York), "To- support, suburban Macomb County Igan and New Jersey, and directed day." sation that he is trying to buy the in Michigan, to sound the alarms his firepower at President Bush. election and his unsubstantiated 9 P.M., CNN, "Larry King Live," about high taxes and low character As he sought to strike a sober tone interview. assertions that the Bush campaign that he hopes will drive voters for speeches on the economy and planned to disrupt his daughter's Gov. Bill Clinton 8 A.M., ABC away from Gov. Bill Clinton. Strip- on AIDS research, Mr. Clinton cast wedding and to wiretap his busi- (Channel 7 in New York), "Good ping his message to its essence, his policy discussion in terms of ness telephones. Aides are con- Morning America." Mr. Bush told a crowd of 10,000 what Mr. Bush lacks. And although fronting the first issue by saying people that Mr. Clinton had "given he still leads in most polls, Mr. that-his two rivals have actually Senator AI Gore 7:30 A.M. NBC, up on reducing the deficit." Arms Clinton said for the first time in outspent him. They are confronting flailing, he denounced Mr. Clin- (Channel 4 in New York), "To- weeks that he considered himself the second issue with silence. "We day," interview. ton's running mate, Senator Al an "underdog" In the race for need to get back to our message," 8 A.M., C-Span, live caller inter- Gore, as an environmental extrem- President. "The American people Clayton Mulford, the Perot cam- view. ist who is "crazy, way out, far out, are going to have to think a long paign's general counsel, said man." He said of the Democrats, time before they want four more Thursday. He also acknowledged "They feel It slipping away from years of this," Mr. Clinton said of that polls show the surge for Mr. them." the Bush Administration. Perot ending. RECENT POLLS Bush A Narrow Lead BC News ct. 27-28 Clinton Perot Gov. Bill Clinton continues to and made public yesterday Mr. 35% lead President Bush, while the In- Clinton's advantage over Mr. Bush 44% creased support Ross Perot re- was 3 percentage points among 16% celved after the final debate ap- likely voters but seven points PREVIOUS POLLS pears to have faded slightly, ac- among all registered voters. The cording to four new polls. Gallup for CNN/USA Today poll was conducted with 2,000 reg- The Los Angeles Times Poll When the polls are averaged, istered voters. Oct. 27-28 Oct. 24-26 Mr. Clinton has 43 percent of the An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll 38 341 support, Mr. Bush 36 percent and taken with 553 likely voters showed 41 Mr. Perot 16 percent. 44 Mr. Clinton's advantage at five NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 16 Most national polls are being re- points. 18 ported in terms of "likely voters" An ABC News tracking poll of in an attempt to reflect the views NBC News/ Wall Street Journal 903 likely voters placed Mr. Clin- The New York Times/ of the 50 percent of adults who ac- Oct. 28 ton's lead at nine points. Tracking CBS News Poll Qct. 20-23 tually turn out on election day rath- polls interview new samples each 38 35 er than the 75 percent who say they day and report combined results 43 are registered. 40 two or more days at a time. The Harris Poll uses three ques- 15 A ten point advantage for Mr. tions to identify likely voters. In a Clinton was measured in a Wash- Harris Poll conducted last week, Washington Post Poll ington Post Poll of 1,837 likely vot- Gallup for Newsweek views of likely voters did not sub- ers. Oct. 23-27 Oct. 22-23 stantially differ from those of all The margins of sampling error 34 30 registered voters. savug чтой range from three percentage The Gallup Organization uses 44 42 points on the larger samples to eight questions. In a CNN/USA To- 19 22 plus or minus five percentage day poll conducted by Gallup and points on the smaller samples. "All the News That's Fit to Print" Th Ball Tinas NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 Perot, Thrown for Loss, May Alter Game Plan O.K. Here's the deal: age of instant communication, Mr. Ross Perot is talking to a crowd of Martini reached for his cellular partisans in Denver about a televi- phone and rang up his wife, Vanessa. sion station that has declined to pre- He was describing the scene to her empt "Monday Night Football" for when Mr. Bush happened to looked one of his 30-minute paid political his way, whereupon Mr. Martini prof- programs. fered the phone, suggesting there "Make 'em show it! Make 'em might be a vote at the other end. The show it!" the partisans chant. President, sensing a chance to close Mr. Perot comes up with a solution. the margin a bit more on Bill Clinton, "We'll get the message through if I took the gamble. have to buy a station here," he prom- It paid off. ises. "Don't worry about it." Mrs. Martini said she was a Bush supporter "because the last time we had a Democrat as President, I lost Mr. Dangerfield, my business." Meet Mr. Quayle Got the Time, Rodney Dangerfield, you're not Mr. President? alone. In the for-what-it's-worth depart- The other day when Vice President ment. Dan Quayle walked, unannounced, When President Bush stole a look into the Aztec Restaurant in Aztec, or two at his wristwatch during the N.M., he didn't get no respect either. debates, the pundits never could fig- Collette Malouff, a waitress, figured ure out whether he was bored or him to be just another faceless checking to see if time was running hungry customer and gave him an out on the debate or the Bush cam- offhand "just fine" when he asked- paign or whatever. So during a cam- how her day was going. Then she paign appearance in Columbus, Ohio, resumed adding up another custom- on Wednesday, the President felt er's check. moved to explain, or at least com- A few days earlier, the guard at the ment and reveal. door of the New York Stock Ex- "I looked at my watch during the change had a similar reaction when debate and I caught all kinds of hell the Vice President walked in, again from the media,' he said: "But I'm unannounced. going to look at it again - It's a "I'll have to check," he replied Timex and it's now 16 to the hour. 1 when Mr. Quayle asked if he could mean, come on. visit a bit. Permission granted. Even the Faithful Footsteps Heard Grow Weary Across the Seas Speaking of time Back in the early days of the 1992 campaign, Governor Clinton, who On Wednesday, when Democratic hails from the town where President women in 60 American cities spread Bush's watch was made, would often from New York to San Francisco arrive two and three hours late for marched to highlight issues of inter- rallies. Yet the faithful always stuck est to women and drum up support around patiently, sometimes well af- for the Clinton/Gore ticket, they were ter midnight. not alone. To the pleasant surprise of The Governor still arrives late. But the organizers of the marches, Demo- the patience of the faithful is wearing cratic women living abroad learned thin. of the marches and organized their Mr. Clinton was two hours tardy for own - in seven cities, spread from an evening rally this week in Wilson, London to Tokyo. N.C., and no sooner had he finally mounted the platform and started his Finding a Voter pitch than some supporters began Who Will Listen heading for the exits. They were still clutching Clinton/Gore signs but they were leaving nonetheless. AJack Martini immediately recog- nized the customer who walked into "It's late." replied one man. "I've The Market delicatessen in Denver seen him." the other day. It was the Pre- of the United States, and, this being the B. DRUMMOND AYRES Jr. "All the News That's Fit to Print" The New York Tine NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 Campaign Stalled, Perot Team Tries to Fix It, Fast part of his half-hour ad. Obviously concerned about their can- By STEVEN A. HOLMES didate's stall, Mr. Mulford and Sharon Special to The New York Times Holman, the campaign's press secre- DALLAS, Oct. 29 - Acknowledging tary, told reporters today that they would no longer answer questions that the rise of Ross Perot in the polls about Mr. Perot's assertions that Re- has stalled, his aides tried today to defuse two issues that they fear have publican operatives had planned to conduct a smear campaign against his slowed his momentum: the charge that he is trying to buy the election, and h:s daughter or about his involvement in unsubstantiated assertions that 1" getting the FBI to conduct an under- Bush campaign planned to disrupt rus cover sting operation on Jim Oberwet- daughter's wedding and to wiretap his ter, the chairman of the Bush cam- business telephones. paign in Texas. The Perot campaign has developed Mr. Perot apparently believed that different strategies for dealing with the Mr. Oberwetter might have been part the two issues. Aides are confronting of a conspiracy to wiretap some tele- the first with claims that President phones at his North Dallas business Bush and Gov. Bill Clinton have actual- office after Mr. Perot dropped out of ly outspent Mr. Perot. They are con- the race last summer. The FBI investi- fronting the second with silence. gation has not turned up any evidence "I think the realization was made of Mr. Oberwetter's involvement in a yesterday or the day before that the such a conspiracy. attention on the nonissues, the charac- The stories about campaigns de- ter assassination, was really playing signed to embarass members of Mr. into the hands of the other two candi- Perot's family and the cloak-and-dag- dates," Clayton Mulford, the Perot ger suspicions regarding Mr. Oberwet- campaign's general. counsel, said to- ter were fueled by Mr. Perot's inter- day. "We need to get back to our mes- view on "60 Minutes' on Sunday," sage." where he first made them, and in a Sliding In Polls surprise appearance at a press confer- ence on Monday. At a press briefing Mr. Mulford agreed with a reporter's suggestion Meanwhile, seven former Perot voi- that public opinion polls show that the unteers held a news conference in, air seems to be leaking out of Mr. Washington today to accuse the Perol Perot's campaign, and he attributed it to critical stories about the independ- ent that were "planted" by his oppo- nents. Mr. Mulford produced no evi- dence to support that assertion. campaign of having ordered illegal his own money, on his campaign A tracking poll conducted by Gallup for USA Today and CNN that will be credit checks on them and of having through Wednesday that is only about a' released Friday indicates that 16 per forced them out of the campaign. They third of what the Republicans and also told stories of high-handed tactics Democratic campaigns have either re. cent of those surveyed backed Mr. Pe- ceived in contributions or spent. rot. Last week a similar tracking poll like being pressured to sign "loyalty oaths." gave Mr. Perot the support of 20 per According to Mr. Mulford, the Presi- cent of those surveyed. Similarly, a Mr. Perot has admitted investigating dent and Mr. Clinton have each re- tracking poll by ABC News today some of his volunteers, but only be- ceived more than $167 million in their showed Mr. Perot at 16 per cent, a five- cause he suspected wrongdoing. The contributions for their campaigns. Mr. participants provided documents point drop from a similar poll released Mulford's figures include the amount showing they had been investigated but on Monday that had the Texan at 21 per had no proof that Mr. Perot was direct- the two men received during the pri- cent. ly involved. maries, the amount the Perot cam- A tracking poll is a survey in which "If someone has this tendency to paign estimates the two parties spent fresh samples of voters are inter- during their conventions, Federal viewed daily and the combined results investigate in a secret way," said Cliff funds for the general election cam- Erneback, a former Perot coordinator of two or three days of interviews are in Ohio, "it conjures up the image of paign, and money contributed by the released. Mr. Perot does not conduct the secret police in communist Rus- Democratic and Republican parties to his own polling, so his rise or fall can support their tickets. sia." only be gauged by public polls conduct- It also includes "soft money" collect- ed by news organizations. All or Nothing ed by the state parties and used to help Fewer 'Infomercial' Viewers Mr. Perot also continued his running elect the party's entire slate of candi- Public opinion surveys are not the feud with the news media today. The dates, including the President. only indicators that the Perot boomlet Texas was to be interviewed "The point here that we're making is may have peaked. Figures compiled by today on "Prime Time Live" and on that it's inaccurate to present the situa- Nielsen Media Research News indicate Friday on "20/20". Since both shows tion that Perot is spending more money that the number of people tuning into are broadcast on ABC, the network's than anybody eise," Mr. Mulford said. Mr. Perot's 30-minute and 60-minute executives decided they might be giv- "In fact, we are spending one-third of "infomercial" ads has dropped sharp- ing Mr. Perot too much exposure. what the other candidates are." ly. About 16.5 million viewers watched When they asked which show he would Scott Moxley, a spokesman for the his first one on Oct. 6. Since then none prefer to appear on, Mr. Perot told Federal Election Commission took is- of the other half-hour programs have them that if he could not appear on sue with some of the Perot campaign's come close to attracting that many both. he would appear on neither. figures. saying Mr. Bush and the Re- viewers. On Monday, 12 million view- Mr. Mulford passed out printed ma- publicans have received or spent about ers - a respectable showing, but a 25 terials indicating that while Mr. Pero: $135.4 million and Mr. Clinton and the per cent decrease - watched at least has expended $59.9 million. of Democrats $129.3 million. "All the News That's Fit to Print" The New York Times NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 For the Most Negative Ads, Turn On the Nearest Radio By ELIZABETH KOLBERT It's the Great Invisible Attack cam- The Clinton campaign has responded paign. with an ad that says: "George Bush is Heading into the final days of the at it again. Because he can't run on his Presidential race, the Bush campaign own record, Bush is resorting to nega- is running a series of highly critical, tive attacks against Bill Clinton." carefully aimed radio advertisements designed to undermine Gov. Bill Clin- Mr. Perot's radio ads do not mention ton's support in key states. Over the either Mr. Bush or Mr. Clinton by weekend, when it will be almost impos- name. Instead they offer the message sible for the Clinton campaign to re- Great Leap In Logic of a pox on both your houses. spond, the Bush campaign is planning Mr. Clinton has not proposed a car- "Now here's an extreme case that to put more attack ads on the radio. bon tax, and aides to the Governor call Far cheaper than television, radio just shows you how goofy things are in the ads grossly misleading. But the advertising is also widely regarded as Washington," Mr. Perot says in one of Bush campaign says the commercials less effective. But radio, which re- his ads. "In order to find a Christmas are justified because Mr. Clinton's run- ceives far less press scrutiny than tele- tree, the White House decided it was ning mate, Senator AI Gore, advocates vision, is often the medium that candi- necessary to send two people all the dates use to deliver their most scathing such a tax in his best-selling book, way to Oregon to look at the tree at "Earth in the Balance." Also, they - and sometimes misleading - cri- taxpayers' expense. They are in the note, the Governor himself has said tiques. piggy bank that you and I created with that the nation's carbon dioxide emis- As the campaign moves toward the our taxpayer money. We need to get close, all three leading candidates - sions should be reduced, something, 'em out." Mr. Clinton, President Bush and Ross Bush aides insist in a leap of logic, that can be achieved only with a carbon tax. Perot - are planning heavy advertis- New Bush Ads Planned ing blitzes over the weekend on both "Governor Clinton has very specifi- cally said he'll entertain the idea," said Yesterday, aides to the President radio and television. On television, both the Clinton and Bill Lacy, a senior political adviser to would not say what new radio ads were the Bush campaign. planned for the weekend. But when a the Bush campaigns are expected to Acting on the belief that any attack reporter asked whether such ads could continue broadcasting a mixture of that goes unanswered is taken by vot- be expected, Sig Rogich, who is coordi- positive and negative messages. But on ers to be true, the Clinton campaign nating the President's media cam- radio the message is likely to be unre- has tried to reply to each of the Bush paign, said simply, "Yup." And be- mittingly downbeat. campaign's radio commercials within cause it is so difficult to respond to new 24 hours. In their response ads, the ads over a weekend, when station of- 'Hard-Hitting Attacks' Clinton campaign has tried to inoculate fices are closed, the Clinton campaign "Radio is a great medium for deliv- the Governor against future attacks as is especially concerned about any last- ering hard-hitting attacks," said Dar- well by planting doubts about the Pres- minute attacks. rell West, a professor of political sci- ident's credibility. "Local radio is where the vilification ence at Brown University who studies "It's the same old story: George and fear-mongering takes place," one campaign advertising. "It's a risk-free Bush will say anything to get elected," adviser to Mr. Clinton said. The Clinton type of advertising. You can be incredi- says a Clinton radio commercial that, campaign has prepared several new bly obnoxious without being blamed for with minor adjustments, is running in radio ads, which aides to the Governor it" several states. "He said so himself." say they will broadcast, depending on Many of the television ads that have The commercial ends: "So the next what the Bush campaign has on radio. been broadcast during the Presidential time you hear a George Bush ad, ask campaign have been based on informa- yourself, isn't it time for a President To close its advertising campaign, tion that could, at best, be called ques- who will fight for Americans' jobs?' the Clinton team is planning to air at tionable. But it is on the radio that the The most recent Bush radio ad, least two new television commercials truth has been treated the most casual- which is running in New Jersey as well before Election Day. One is expected to ly. as in several other states, purports to continue the campaign's attacks on the Several of the Bush campaign's ra- "examine the facts" about Governor President's economic record, while the dio commercials are variations on a Clinton's record on child welfare and other is supposed to be more positive, single theme - that Mr. Clinton will on crime. featuring either scenes from Clinton impose a tax on energy, a "carbon tax" "If he can't care for children and campaign bus trips or Mr. Clinton that will drive up utility bills and cost keep the public safety in his own making a direct appeal to voters. jobs. state,' the ad asks, "how can he expect "He's said he's for change, but look a promotion?" Yesterday the Clinton campaign be- at the change he's really talking gan broadcasting a new television ad in about," says an ad running in states Michigan and Ohio that describes how Japanese mini-vans that were labeled Illinois. "An independent analysis says cars avoided import duties: that Clinton-Gore radical environmen- For its part, the Bush campaign has tal taxes will drive up our annual utility begun broadcasting two new television bills over $350." ads, one that features spooky black and white landscapes and attacks Mr. Clin- ton's record in Arkansas and another that touts Mr. Bush's qualifications for the nation's highest office. "All the News That's Fit to Print" The New York Times NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 Bush to Break With Tradition Breaking with tradition, President Bush has decided not to broadcast an election eve appeal on any of the three ma- jor networks. Gov. Bill Clinton and Ross Perot, in contrast, will uphold tradition. They will broadcast election eve appeals on all three networks. Mr. Clinton has bought a half-hour - though not the same half-hour - on NBC, ABC and CBS, spending about $2 million. Mr. Perot has pur- chased an hour on NBC and at a different time a half-hour each on CBS and ABC, for al- most $3 million. Representatives of all three networks said that equal time had been offered to the Presi- dent, but that he had declined it. Tony Mitchell, a spokesman for the Bush campaign, said the President was forgoing the tra- ditional election eve special be- cause "we believe the advertis- ing that we're doing is what we need at this point." But some political analysts said they be- lieved the reason for the change is that the Bush cam- paign is low on money. "All the News That's Fit to Print" The New York Times NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 THE AD CAMPAIGN Bush: TV Spot Harshly Denounces Clinton's Record The Bush campaign began broadcasting this 30-second commercial Wednesday in unidentified markets around the country. ON THE SCREEN Opens with Arkansas doubled government gloomy black and white images spending, most of that growth of a rainy day, a deserted road, came from inflation. The Clinton weeds rustling in the wind. Key campaign has also cited figures phrases from the narration, and from the National Governors' sources for the statistics, are Risk Association showing that all but superimposed over similarly six states have doubled general depressing images. Closes with spending since Mr. Clinton took a tree and a buzzard in the office. desert and these words "America Can't Take That Risk." SCORECARD This ad takes facts Bill Clinton wants to do for out of context to paint Mr. Clinton PRODUCER The November America what he's done for as a governor who brought only Company. Arkansas. America can't take that misery to Arkansas. In reality, Mr. TELEVISION SCRIPT Announcer: risk." Clinton has been considered a "In his 12 years as Governor. Bill ACCURACY This ad is a case better than average governor of Clinton has doubled his state's study in how accusations can be a small, poor state. It tries to debt. Doubled government made and how facts can be scare viewers into thinking that a spending and signed the largest used to bolster them or tear them Clinton administration would tax increase in his state's history. Yet his state remains the 45th down. The Bush campaign bring only gloom and doom to worst in which to work. The 45th backs its accusations with the whole country. In 30 seconds, statistics and cites its sources on 'the ad tries to hit Mr. Clinton on worst for children. It has the the screen. The Clinton the hot-button issues of the worst environmental policy. campaign refutes every environment, children, crime and "And the F.B.I. says Arkansas accusation with its own statistics. taxes-all_issues that Mr. Bush had America's biggest increase has been attacked on. in rate of serious crime. And now For example, while it is true that RICHARD L. BERKE THE AD CAMPAIGN Clinton: Issuing a Quick Response Less than a day after the Bush campaign began broadcasting its commercial attacking Arkansas, the Clinton campaign produced this 30-second response, for broadcast in select markets beginning yesterday. ON THE SCREEN Phrases appear build up his record and makes that underscore the narration, like assertions out of context. The " "Bush ads are misleading and Bush] is lying Clinton ad says Arkansas leads wrong." and "Arkansas leads the about Bill Clinton's the nation in job growth, but the nation in job growth." Beneath record Bush campaign cites figures the words, in smaller type, showing that has been true for appear sources for the phrases. Rushingson Prot Jush Mann. 8:26.92 only the last three months. While like CBS, Bureau of Labor Mr. Clinton balanced 12 budgets, Statistics. Interspersed with the he was required to by state law. words are photographs of Gov. Bill Clinton at work in the "And he's balanced 12 budgets. The ad uses many citations to Governor's office. They reduced infant mortality, lend it credibility but sometimes PRODUCER Clinton/Gore Creative lave highest goes overboard. Il the Team. graduation rate in the region. institution of The Washington And in the past year, Arkansas's Post that said Mr. Bush was lying, TELEVISION SCRIPT Announcer: crime rate went down. but Judy Mann, a local "CBS, CNN and newspapers columnist across the country call George "No wonder The Washington Post Bush's ads misleading and says George Bush is lying about SCORECARD This ad inundates wrong. The fact is, under Bill Bill Clinton's record, and why The viewers with documentation to try Clinton's leadership Arkansas Oregonian concluded. 'Frankly, to lessen the impact of one of the leads the nation in job growth, we no longer trust George Bush.' Bush campaigns harshest has the second-lowest tax attacks. The ad also tries to ACCURACY While the Bush ad burden and the lowest portray Mr. Clinton a successful Government spending in the makers selectively used figures Governor and the President as a to attack Mr. Clinton's record, this country. man who cannot be trusted. ad selectively uses figures to RICHARD L. BERKE "All the News That's Fit to Print" The New York Time NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 Invaders on Washington's Horizon, Republicans Grab Their Résumés By MICHAEL WINES Specialto The New York Times WASHINGTON, Oct. 29 - One of President Bush's top appointees, a man known more for competence than political zeal, recently got a telephone call dangling the prospect of new em- ployment in January. Nothing odd about that; with Mr. Bush's re-election uncertain, many Republicans are fur- tively fielding job offers. But this call stood out for its source: Eight blocks from the White House, Bill Clinton's campaign staff. Already the traffic at Star Personnel Inc. does it was plucking at the carcass of the little to discourage that conclusion. Bush regime more than a month before "I'm handling a résumé for an assist- Election Day. ant secretary right now," said Karen "They were probably testing my loy- Hillian, the staffing manager there. alty," the Bush official said, sounding The résumé-burnishing trade was slow both bitter and philosophic. "We did the through the Presidential debates, she same thing to Carter's people in '80." said, then began to take off this week as Mr. Bush himself might call Wash- mid-level Administration officials seri- ington Tension City these days. Not ously began pondering the prospect of since Ronald Reagan pried the White unemployment. House away from Jimmy Carter a "The political appointees - from dozen years ago have the final days of Cabinet members on down - have a Presidential election taken on such a very, very discreetly expressed inter- Crockett-at-the-Alamo urgency. est in new jobs," said Eric Vautour, a Yes, polls show the race has tight- former personnel official in the Nixon ened in the last few days, but that has Administration who now directs Rus- not been enough to dispel the gloom sell Reynolds Associates, an executive- that has been settling in for months. search concern in Washington. "They Republicans despair at finding their are stating a preference if, indeed, shining city on a hill - seat of the cold some client has an interest in their war triumph, gilded monument to a abilities. And they're asking that no decade of prosperity - besieged by meetings take place, and no paper be Mongols camped at the gates and hun- forwarded, till after the election." grily awaiting capitulation. Democrats Many are in for a discreet shock. The are savoring the giddiness of revolu- world outside the White House is not tionaries pulling down the statues in the one they left four, eight, even 12 the town square. years ago for the power and prestige of high public service. Since 1989, when Politics is not geometry, of course. Congress enacted a carrot-and-stick Whatever Mr. Clinton's advisers hope package of Federal pay increases and in their hearts, his victory on Tuesday strict new ethics laws, Government is so far but a statistical assumption, salaries have catapulted past those in hedged by margins of error and the the private sector; six-figure bureau- volatility of an electorate that has al- cratic jobs are now common. "A num- ready exceeded its flash point more ber of people will have to take cuts in than once. pay to get a job," Mr. Vautour said. But a last-reel sense of finality per- When jobs exist, that is. Once, out-of- vades much of official Washington any- office Republicans could land safely in way, like a movie in which the outcome Congress; this time, Republicans fear seems foreordained but the suspense still tingles. a Democratic landslide in legislative Rumors, some based in fact, take races that will cut the number of Capi- flight almost hourly. A top Cabinet tol Hill jobs available to departing Ad- member is plotting his senatorial cam- ministration officials. Nor does the pri- paign. (True.) The Administration is vate sector offer much hope. renting space for Mr. Clinton's White "I probably have more talented ex- House transition team. (True, but that ecutives on file than I've ever had in happens in every election.) Washington the 24 years I've been in the executive- fashion salons are dumping their in- search business," said Barbara Lau- ventories of Nancy Reagan-red and mann, managing partner of Laumann Barbara Bush-blue inaugural gowns and Associates, another Washington for flashier Democratic fare. (False, head-hunting concern. "It's a terrible says Lashea Green, salon buyer for market to be unemployed." Clare Dratch Inc., one trend-setting shop. She will head to Manhattan, to the Garment District, the morning af- ter Election Day, but the gowns she buys have no ideological stripe, she says.) Booming Business In Résume Polishing "Be the first in the Democratic Par- ty to have a copy of the new ELEC- TRONIC PLUM BOOK," screams a direct-mail flier that landed this week on desks around town. The Plum Book is the Federal version of the Social Register - a listing of the capital's most powerful jobs and, until now, the Republicans who occupy them. The new edition, the flyer confidently states, includes "over 8,600 Federal policy and supporting positions which will become available under the new President.' "All the News That's Fit to Print" The New York Times NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 A Few Democrats While Democrats Have Been There Knock on Wood Mr. Eizenstat recalls what it felt like Democrats want desperately to be- in 1980. lieve all this, but they will not let them- "I don't think people who aren't part selves. of an administration can understand "I was in a meeting yesterday of the National Jewish Democratic Council it," be said. "It's not just a job you're losing. It's a sense of being part of a where people were explicitly admon- broader enterprise. You come into the ished, whenever they said, 'When Clin- job to get certain things done for the ton is elected,' to instead say, 'If Clin- country, and you have a sick sense ton IS elected,' said Stuart Eizenstat, a Washington lawyer, former domestic you're not going to be able to complete your mission and, in fact, people are policy adviser to President Carter and member of the Democratic establish- coming in with an entirely different agenda that you abhor. ment-in-exile. "They were acting out of 'You can't understand why the coun- fear that somehow, someone was try can't understand what you've done putting a hex on a party that's been for the last four years, and why they' sudden it's like people are tired of us, of star-crossed for so long.' not rewarding you instead of punishing Republicans, of conservatism. It's cool Republicans know how close the you." to be a Democrat again. The excite- precipice is. In mixed company, Ad- Asked if he feels sympathy for Mr. ment is with them now. ministration officials maintain a deter- Bush and his team, Mr. Eizenstat "The good thing is, it takes them a mined cheeriness. "I don't have time to quickly responds: "Sure. For about one long time to get down to replacing think about the future," a senior White second." people at my level. 1 certainly won't be House aide snapped. "I'm too busy Later he called back to say that his fired on Jan. 21. I figure more like late getting this guy re-elected." response had been unnecessarily March, maybe even April. And I will Others fend off gloom with dollops of harsh. "I recognize how difficult it is to insist on being fired; I need the unem- black humor. "Basically, things are face an impending loss when you're in ployment.money." pretty steady," another White House the White House," he said, "but my He marveled at the novelty of it. "I aide said dryly of the progress of Mr. sympathy tends to evaporate when I am actually going to get a pink slip," he Bush's campaign. "Sixty percent of the recognize how long they've been in said. "It will actually be pink. I think people didn't want to re-elect him nine I'll frame it." months ago, and 60 percent don't want power and the need for change." to re-elect him today." Among the true believers, pessi- He is 36 years old, an East Coaster, mism remains a minority view. But excellent dresser. He is a lawyer, al- longtime election-watchers have though, in the Washington way of charted a bevy of leading indicators of things, he has never practiced law. political panic that do not bode well for Before entering this Government he the White House. Mid-level political lobbied for various foreign ones. appointees are postponing vacations, He is one of about 1,700 workers with knowing they may well have plenty of the greatest stake in Mr. Bush's future. free time after Jan. 20, 1992, and that They are political appointees - "schedule C" employees, in bureaucra- In Highest Places the Government will pay them for time off that is not used. "There are a lot of tese - who got their jobs because they There's Still Hope people saving it up," one Administra- are loyal Republicans, and who will tion official said. lose them if Mr. Clinton takes over. Like most of his colleagues, he is a But inside the besieged Bush camp, More senior Bush aides, with grander ambitions, are discreetly ask- bright, white, male graduate of a good they are still shoring up the ramparts. school, one of those now in their 30's - Most pundits say Mr. Clinton has ing reporters how much their book proposals might command in the pub- the anointed managers of the Reagan already locked up more than the 270 lishing market, and which literary Revolution, and presumably the future electoral votes he needs to win on Tues- agents are best retained. (One top Republican aristocracy. day. But in a handful of polls, Mr. He works in a respectable, mid-level Clinton's insurmountable lead has agent says the memoirs of the White House chief of staff, James A. Baker Cabinet office. The $70,000-a-year sala- seemingly shriveled - to eight, then 3d, would be welcomed, but that the ry is not what he had enjoyed as a five, then two percentage points. public appetite for many more Bush lobbyist but enough to pay the mort- Mr. Bush, a soporific campaigner all books in a Clinton Presidency would be gage on his tony Georgetown town, house (hot tub on the patio, gourmet year, is suddenly his old spontaneous, at best limited. "The talk is, is there. kitchen, a tiny wood-burning fireplace slightly goofy, self, spitting fire on the anyone else that's interesting now?" in the living room). He still buys suits stump. He calls Senator Gore "Ozone she said.) at Hugo Boss; still makes the pay- Man,' and the name sticks. He rails at Some political and policy advisers the northern spotted owl - "a feath- are beginning to resemble football fans ments on his hunter-green Miata; he has even begun a wine collection. ery, fine-looking little bird," he says, who bolt the stadium when their team "but I'm also worried about those is hopelessly down, cursing the quar- The job has been a surprise. Bureau- 30,000 families that might be thrown terback and telling all within earshot crats actually work hard and wield out of work." His audience laughs, then what/they would have done differently. great power. Amazingly, he found, he is cheers. Last month, for example, Washingto- a man of substance, flying around the A senior official who often flies with nians clucked knowingly when, in a world to tell foreigners in equally ex- Mr. Bush aboard Air Force One tele- Washington Post article, the Presi- pensive suits what the United States of phones a friend. dent's budget director and fiscal strat- America wants of them. Ambassadors "You may think I'm crazy," he said, egist, Richard G. Darman, publicly treat him with respect. Reporters call "but I think we can win this thing." blamed his boss's plight on Treasury him looking for disclosures, and he Secretary with ic advice and on the political "idiocy" In late September, sipping a Fresco- of Mr. Bush himself. baldi Chianti Reserve in his kitchen, he Lately, other Bush aides prefer to said calmly that he assumed this was sock it to the Bush-Quayle chairman, all going to go away. He spoke of the Robert M. Teeter. who they contend outlook: ran a BarcaLounger campaign when "I don't see any way Bush can win at circumstances clamored for a Land this point. I am making all my plans on Rover. They refer to "the Teeter prin- the assumption of a Clinton landslide. ciple," a snide allusion to the Peter It isn't just the economy or that people principle, that every talented worker are mad at Bush. It's bigger. All of a gets promoted, sooner or later, to a job beyond his or her abilities. "All the News That's Fit to Print" Th New York Time NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 Time Bombs on the Supreme Court Of all the time bombs that Presidents leave Bork nomination. He argued that Mr. Bork threat- behind, none are more potentially explosive than ened to "turn the clock back" to old battles over their appointments to the Supreme Court. Consider- race and personal liberty that had frustrated the ing the age of the present justices, the President South's progress. elected next Tuesday is likely to make several The stakes are even higher for the Court itself. appointments, and thus determine the character of Justices Sandra Day O'Connor and Anthony Ken- the Court for a generation. nedy, Reagan appointees, and David Souter, a Bush The candidates haven't much mentioned their appointee, have held to the Roe decision, lest their views of the Court, but these are a crucial standard Court be seen as the White House's political captive. for thoughtful voters. If re-elected, George Bush In similar spirit they held firm against state-spon- says he would try to finish packing the Court sored prayer in public schools. against Roe V. Wade, the decision validating abor- Justices O'Connor and Kennedy have also held tion rights, which four members say they want to the line, at least temporarily, against further judi- strike down. Bill Clinton, by finding candidates he cial rewriting of the Federal habeas corpus law thinks will support a woman's choice, would halt protecting state prisoñ inmates. Justice O'Connor that drive and turn it back. felt the need to remind Justice Thomas that the No less important is a President's power to Court's job (and, according to President Bush, his recast the trial and appellate courts. The Reagan passion) is to interpret the statute Congress wrote, and Bush appointees are overwhelmingly conserva- not to make by judicial means the changes some tives - and distressingly underrepresentative of members of Congress had failed to enact. minority and women lawyers. Something wonderful is going on here. These The crusade to remake the Court stalled in 1987 three conservative lawyers, appointed by Presi- when the Senate rejected the nomination of Robert dents with a political agenda for transforming the Bork. Since then, the Senate's Democratic majority Court, rally to defend its reputation, and by exten- has forced the White House to avoid nominees who sion their own. openly share his outspoken opposition to Roe - or, The Bush White House shows no compunction in the case of Justice Clarence Thomas, to prompt about pursuing a coarse political agenda, which is candidates to disguise their views long enough to all the more reason to prize and praise the institu- get confirmed. If re-elected, President Bush might tional restraint and respect of Justices O'Connor, well overcome the Senate's resistance. Kennedy and Souter - and all the more reason to As Governor of Arkansas, Bill Clinton joined choose a President who respects the judicial branch with other New South politicians who opposed the enough to maintain its quality and independence. "All the News That's Fit to Print" The New Ymb Times NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 Alan S. Weiner for The New York Times A Federal district judge has issued an order direct- cal Company pesticide plant, above, in Jacksonville, ing the state of Arkansas to halt incineration tempo- Ark. The plant is one of the most contaminated rarily after Nov. 10 at the abandoned Vertac Chemi- toxic waste sites in the country. Judge to Oversee Burning in Arkansas By KEITH SCHNEIDER On Tuesday the state announced that atmosphere around the plant were be- Special to The New York Times it had given final approval to a plan to low safety limits set by the evironmen- WASHINGTON, Oct. 29 - A Federal burn nearly two million pounds of tal agency, the rest of the chemical district judge in Arkansas today as- wastes from the manufacture of the wastes would be burned over the next sumed control of the largest project Vietnam/era defoliant Agent Orange, two or three months. ever undertaken in the United States to which was contaminated with traces of incinerate chemical wastes contami- dioxin. Dioxin, a byproduct of heating Temporary Halt Ordered nated with dioxin. chlorine-based compounds, is regarded But Judge Reasoner, responding to a as dangerous, though precisely how The judge's order, responding to a lawsuit brought by Gregory Ferguson, dangerous is a matter of dispute lawsuit brought by Arkansas commu- a lawyer in Little Rock, and Mick among scientists. nity groups and a Washington-based Harrrison of the Washington-based public interest law group, came as the The incineration project in Jackson- Government Accountability Project, incineration of the chemical wastes ville is being closely watched by envi- issued an order directing the state to began today at the abandoned Vertac ronmental groups, state officials and temporarily halt the incineration after Chemical Company pesticide plant in industry leaders across the country Nov. 10 to give opponents time to also Jacksonville, Ark., a city of 29,000 peo- because cleanups of dozens of other evaluate the test results. ple 15 miles northeast of Little Rock. toxic waste sites contaminated with The judge said he would hold a new dioxin could be accelerated or delayed, hearing before deciding whether to al- based on results from Vertac. low the project to resume. He did not Closely Watched Project set a date for the hearing today. In his ruling today the judge, Stephen The old plant. which manufactured Kenneth L. Smith, Governor Clin- M. Reasoner. allowed the state to pro- insecticides and defoliants from 1948 tonts chief environmental advisor, haid ceed with its original plan that calls for until it was closed in 1986, is one of the the order did not alter the state's plan- continuing the incineration of the most contaminated toxic waste sites in "We're perfectly comfortable with the dioxin-contaminated wastes through the country, according to the Federal ruling," he added. Saturday. Samples will then be collect- Environmental Protection Agency. ed from air-monitoring stations around Opponents said Judge Reasoner's or- Since 1979, when Federal and state the plant and sent to a laboratory for der provided most of the protections investigators found dioxin in the soil analysis. they had sought. Mick Harrison, a law- and water in Jacksonville, Vertac's yer with the Government Accountabil- toxic wastes and what to do about them Burning of the dioxin wastes is to ity Project. said state officials "are have been a source of considerable resume on Nov. 9-10 for more environ- going to be allowed to do just enough strife in the community and have domi- mental tests. The state plan called for testing to prove to the judge that it's nated the attention of Gov. Bill Clinton evaluating all the results: f officials too dangerous and that the project and his environmental advisers. determined that levels of dioxin in the should be permanently shut down.' "All the News That's Fit to Print" The New York Time NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 Bush's Remarks Hit Close to Home By RONALD SMOTHERS like he thinks we all left fresh, bare- politician for attacking the state and Special to The New York Times foot footprints out in the parking lot." the character of the people here." SHIRLEY, Ark., The President's reference to the The schools in Shirley sit atop a hill Oct. 29 Linda state as "the lowest of low" as he re- that looks down on the valley where Burgess at the the middle fork of the Little Red Riv- counted its meager standing in areas Hair Fashion like children's health, teachers' pay, er flows. The river marked the path Beauty Shop said of the old Missouri and North Arkan- education spending, working condi- she didn't "give a rip because its just tions and income, reverberated sas Rail Road that ran between Jop- politics." Watson I. Smith, a 79-year- lin and West Helena on the Arkansas throughout Arkansas, making many old retired teacher, said it struck him people feel as if they had been cast side of the Mississippi Delta. Shirley as a "tad too mean-spirited." was founded in 1907 as a station along And Everett Henderson, a farmer that line carrying timber between the who warmed himself with his back to two cities. It is named for the first the pot-bellied stove in Privitt's Hard- Where 'hillbilly stationmaster's daughter. ware store, said it reminded him of The 46-year-old Mr. Clark remem- the "hillbilly put-downs" he and other put-downs' aren't bers the old clapboard schoolhouse Arkansans used to hear in the Army. that was too coldin winter and swel- A little more than a week after funny. tering in spring. The building, due to President Bush spotlighted Arkan- be renovated, sits in stark relief to the sas's shortcomings in a Presidential sprawling one-story brick buildings debate and referred to the state as of the high school and elementary adrift from the rest of the nation. It the "lowest of the low," feelings still school. All that came in the last 10' sent Republican candidates scram- run strong among many in this town years, he said, when Governor Clin- bling either to distance themselves of 354 in the foothills of the Ozark ton and his wife, Hillary, "literally from the comments or to try to clar- Mountains, where homes seem to forced the state education system to ify them as aimed more at policies hang from the sides of the roads. help itself and become better.' than people. Situated 75 miles northwest of Lit- But more than anything else, it tle Rock, Shirley is a place where the struck at what Art English, a political appellation "hillbilly" has ceased to science professor at the University of be fighting words and become more Arkansas, called the war between Not everyone in town was offended of a marketing tool as in Bea Macke's pride and a pervasive "inferiority by the President's remarks. Mrs. "hillbilly pizza" at B & G's Bakery. complex" in the state. Arkansans are Macke, the co-owner of B & G's Bak- ("It's a deep-dish affair with Parme- aware that they rank low in a number ery, said that it was all hot air and san, mozzarella and provolone of categories, he and others noted, but that she still intended to vote for Mr. cheeses," she said.) But many saw in also have a sense that they have done Bush. Jo Reid, Ailene Smith and Alice the President's words an echo of the much with little and have come a long Wiley, customers at the bakery from old negative stereotypes. way in a very short time. nearby Fairfield Bay, a retirement Betsey Wright, the research direc- community of 2,500, said that among tor of the Clinton campaign whose of- their neighbors Republicanism runs fice prepared detailed responses deeper than Arkansas chauvinism. "He didn't use the word 'hillbilly,' challenging some of the President's But others like Tom Kimmons, who but that's what a lot of us thought comments, called them more of the runs a local development company, about when he said that," said Mayor effort to "divide us by race, age, gen- said President Bush's comments be- John Clark Jr., a strong supporter of der and income" rather than bring trayed a certain condescension to Gov. Bill Clinton, as he stood in the people together. rural people. "He made a fundamen- parking lot of Jones Grocery Store "Bush doesn't know anything about tal error," said Mr. Kimmons. "He where farmers, retirees and others rural people," said Mr. Smith. "He separated and excluded us and others often gather for morning coffee. "It's may be a smart man, but he's a dumb like us. But we Americans too." "All the News That's Fit to Print" The New York Timas NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 Justice Dept. Is Criticized Over Environmental Cases By JOHN H. CUSHMAN Jr. Special to The New York Times WASHINGTON, Oct. 29 - Congres- But Federal prosecutors did not ap- sional Democrats and the Bush Admin- pear at those hearings. Mr. Schumer istration are locked in a bitter dispute said he planned to subpoena-them to over the Justice Department's record appear before his committee. in prosecuting environmental crimes. The report said a "serious problem In the latest salvo, a Congressional exists" between the Justice Depart- committee today made public a study ment and its various United States asserting that Federal prosecutors Attorneys' offices. "The level of mis- have been blocked from bringing crim- trust running from the assistant U.S. inal charges against environmental of- Attorneys to the environmental crime fenders even when the evidence in the section is palpable," it said. case seemed ironclad. The report singled out for criticism The study suggested that the prose- several former and current Justice De- cutors were being stymied for political partment officials, including Neil Car- reasons, an assertion it said was sup- tusciello, the chief of the environmen- ported by off-the-record statements tal crime section. It said that Mr. Car- made by law-enforcement officials tusciello repeatedly interfered with around the country. prosecutions of environmental crimes. The study was written for Repre- 'Political Hatchet Job' sentative Charles E. Schumer, chair- man of the House Judiciary Commit- In an interview, Mr. Cartusciello and tee's subcommittee on crime, by Jona- Mr. Clegg excoriated the report as than Turley, a professor at George being grossly unfair, saying that its Washington University who teaches author had never contacted them and courses on environmental crime. He that there were many factual errors on and his associates interviewed law-en- crucial points. forcement officials confidentially in "This is an obviously political hatch- preparing the report, Mr. Turley said. et job commissioned by a liberal Dem- 'Greatest Impediment' ocratic Congressman and written by a "The Department of Justice in the past has proven the greatest impedi- ment to prosecution that these prosecu- A study suggests tors have faced," he said in an inter- view on Wednesday. politics is Roger B. Clegg, Deputy Assistant Attorney General for environmental impeding affairs, called the report "politically timed" and "a hatchet job.' The report's release comes as Presi- prosecutions. dent Bush is seeking to defend his environmental record from Democrat- ic critics, in part by issuing several junior professor," Mr. Clegg said. "The new regulations governing pollution report, I think, was not intended to be under the Clean Air Act. The report fair. 11 is completely inaccurate. It was suggested that no matter what laws written by law students supervised by are enacted, the Justice Department a junior law professor. None of these and its environmental crime section individuals appear to have any prose- are not aggressively prosecuting viola- cutorial experience." tions. Although they conceded that at times The Justice Department, in response prosecutors in the field disagree with to the study, today published its own supervisors over whether to bring statistics showing that there were a cases to trial, Mr. Clegg said that dur- record 161 criminal indictments for ing Mr. Cartusciello's tenure there was environmental offenses in the fiscal "no case, no case," in which the ulti- year that ended Sept. 30, and a record mate decision caused "any disagree- $163 million in criminal penalties. The ment between the U.S. Attorney's of- figure for criminal penalties included fice and us." $125 million in a single case, the Exxon Prosecutors and other law-enforce- Valdez oil spill; the remaining $38 mil- ment officials declined to be inter- lion in penalties exceeded those as- viewed on the record. United States resued in any previous year. attorneys and their assistants, who Mr. Schumer, Democrat of New prosecute cases in the field, are em- York, said he had been pressing the ployecs of the Justice Department and issue for nearly two years and that the could be disciplined for breaking ranks report was not timed for the election. with the department. The report said staff members of the 'Level of Mistrust' Environmental Protection Agency Several Congressional committees have complained that the Justice De- have recently held hearings into some partment has been "an impediment to of the cases examined in the report, prosecution" and that assistant United and much of the case histories the States attorneys "can point 10 a clear report cites came from these hearings, pattern" of "interference with environ- not from original research. mental prosecutions." "All the News That's Fit to Print" The New York Times NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 Abroad at Home On talk shows now, when he is ANTHONY LEWIS asked about the cover-up of the fi- nancing of Iraq, the President says he was just trying to bring Iraq "into the Living family of nations" - and alas, the policy didn't work. The hosts do not know enough to press him on why he With said nothing when Saddam Hussein massed his troops, why he did not act when warned of the arms buildup or why he continues to shield the finan- Lies cial maneuverers today. Cynicism has characterized Mr. Bush's career in politics for a long time. He opposed civil rights laws At the end of what has seemed an when he thought that position would interminable campaign, we are left advance him in Texas, then switched. with a question of character: How He was for abortion, then against. He ridiculed what he called Ronald Rea- does George Bush live with the knowl- edge of his disregard for truth in gan's "voodoo economics," then be- came a fervent advocate of same. politics? Even to ask the question may seem Truth has been a frequent casualty naïve, so cynical have we become in his campaigns. In 1988 he used a about politicians. They all lie, many picture of a waste dump elsewhere to illustrate a television ad about Boston would say, so why should we expect Harbor. This time the false advertis- President Bush's conscience to be ing has been wholesale. troubled? A Bush radio ad said that Bill Clin- Yes, but. It is right to be skeptical ton favored "radical environmental about politicians, but surely there is a taxes" on fuel. Governor Clinton has level of brazen falsehood that they not advocated any such tax. should be ashamed to breach. Another advertisement on the ra- That point was passed by Mr. Bush dio began with"a farmer saying he when as Vice President he was inter- would "like to plant a crop of corn, viewed by David Broder of The Wash- please." A voice replies: "I'm sorry, ington Post on Aug. 5, 1987. Mr. sir, the Clinton-Gore Land Manage- Broder asked about his role in the ment Directorate has classified your Iran-contra affair. Mr. Bush an- farm as a wetland. you're delin- swered at length that he was not quent on the new Clinton-Gore farm informed about it until after it ended. operations taxes." No such tax or "We were not in the loop," he said. program has been proposed by the There is now a mountain of evi- Democratic candidates. dence that Mr. Bush was fully in- The main thrust of the entire Bush formed about the shipment of arms to campaign this year has been nega- Iran in return for the release of hos- tive: a series of efforts to smear tages. He was briefed by both Ameri- Governor Clinton. Mr. Bush insinuat- can and Israeli intelligence. He may, ed that there was something sinister even have had an important opera- in a trip Mr. Clinton made to Moscow tional role. as a young man. Political types from Yet he goes on denying all. How the State Department rummaged through Mr. Clinton's passport files - and his mother's. Mr. Bush said Governor Clinton had written a letter Is there no condemning all the U.S. military "as immoral." There was no such letter. level of Do the smears work? Analysts and poll takers say the public is less likely falsehood that to believe such attacks today. But they have worked in the past, and we Bush hesitates cannot really be sure that lies have no effect. to breach? Some people have asked me why George Bush did not run as the Presi- dent this year: with dignity, as Ger- ald Ford did in 1976, almost winning does he meet the eyes of David against the odds. The answer is that Broder, a man of honor? How does he that has never been his style. He is by live with himself? instinct a negative campaigner. Then there is Iraq. For years Mr. George Bush is, and so is his han- Bush boosted Saddam Hussein. De- dler, James A. Baker 3d. Mr. Baker is spite repeated warnings that Iraq the invisible man, avoiding responsi- was acquiring weapons of terror, he bility for this slimy campaign. But he approved huge loan guarantees. Even was the manager when Willie Horton when Iraqi troops massed on Ku- and the fake Boston Harbor flour- wait's border, he said nothing. Then ished in 1988, and he is in charge now. when Saddam Hussein attacked, Mr. The hands may be the hands of Esau, Bush suddenly discovered that he but the voice is the voice of Jacob. was "worse than Hitler." "All the News That's Fit to Print" The New York Times NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 On My Mind A. M. ROSENTHAL It's the Economy, Stupid Drugs, crime, a paralyzed justice Now that the campaign is almost system: candidates do put out some over, the country owes the candidates position papers. They don't get much gratitude for what Americans want attention, because they do not convey so much - a vacation from the reali- the horror. ties of national life. Did anything from the candidates That might seem a crabby thought show they understood what "urban - after all those months when the affairs" now means? What it is like to candidates kept lecturing the country live in a neighborhood controlled by about the economy. drug mobs and know they kill at "The economy, stupid," reads the whim or at random? Or where par- sign in the office of Bill Clinton's ents take their kids out of school to campaign strategist. President Bush try to keep them from being shot is boiling down the whole election to down in the streets outside? two words: trust and taxes. Ross And which candidate or which posi- Perot managed to do it in one - deficit. The attitude surveys convinced candidates that all that Americans cared about was the economy and Yes sir, how it translated into jobs. Ignore but that and lose. The surveys were probably right. whose? So given the choice of lead, follow or get out of the way, the candidates trotted right behind the polls. But something strange happened - all the virtuous talk and position pa- tion paper dealt with men and women pers on the economy had a smother- with broken minds living, wandering ing, flattening-out effect on American and defecating in the streets? reality and the American memory. It The political professionals pound it into our heads that the rest of the homogenized the very problems that world matters zero in this campaign a sturdier economy was supposed to - no clout in surveys at all. Still, it is cure. That allowed them to be com- hard to believe that Americans really fortably diminished in our mind, pri- don't care whether the next Presiden- orities and conscience. In April, when Los Angeles was I cy would try to prevent Bosnians from being murdered or Somali chil- burning, the country, in shock, literal- dren from walking about with swollen ly prayed that this time our "lead- bellies, just because Bosnians and ers" would pay attention and do Somalis don't create jobs, except for something, do something. foreign grave diggers. But look what happened, lame- Unpleasantly specific truths are brain: by summer Los Angeles was not ignored - just smoothed down, getting footnote political attention, made less scary, by over-generalized barely. economy talk. We are told repeatedly Los Angeles was the result of eco- that unemployment is about 7.5 per- nomic and racial rage. Nonsense - cent - but rarely that it is at least Los Angeles was the work of lawless triple that for teen-agers in ghettos. hooligans looking for an excuse to The candidates explain that riot. No - Los Angeles was the result strengthening the whole economy will of both. help us find money to deal with drugs, Take your pick. But one thing is crime, violence, maybe even a few everything that for Boshians and Somahs. Los Angeles riot still exists in cities That's nice. But the candidates around the country. should explain something else. How The mesmerized focus on broad- do other democracies manage to issue economics blunted the needle of have cleaner streets, safer neighbor- national awareness that emergency hoods and safer banks, less drugs, no social and law-enforcement action guns, better medical insurance, fewer was imperative. That is dangerous. wreckages of tenements and people, Incidentally, whatever happened to without waiting until the complete the matter of racial tensions? Demo- grand, overall, very macro, big-pic- crats are pushing race relations into ture economic problem is settled, by the background because they do not some unspecified superstrategy? want Jesse Jackson in the fore- Maybe Presidential candidates will ground. Republicans don't see politi- find out. Maybe they will think city, cal capital in talking about it at all. town and neighborhood economics, as Mr. Perot is still recovering from the well as national. discovery that "you people" is not the When? In 1996, stupid. way African-Americans prefer to be addressed. "All the News That's Fit to Print" The New York Times NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 Bush Remains the Favorite Among Executives Sculley. chairman of Apple Computer Inc., and Few pro-Bush executives fix much blame on By THOMAS C. HAYES John A. Young. chief executive of the Hewlett- Mr. Bush for the weak economy, since he en- Packard Company, are backing Governor Clin- tered the White House in 1989. Robert W. Gal- President Bush might have been trailing Gov. ton because of his promise to promote Ameri- vin, chairman of the executive committee and Bill Clinton in the opinion polls since midsum- ca's technology sector, Dr. Amelio is part of the former chief executive of Motorola Inc., said mer, but like most Republicans in past cam- San Francisco Bay Area technology leadership that the heavy debt loads and the real-estate paigns for the White House, the President that remains behind Mr. Bush. bust that followed the boom times of the 1980's seems to have held a commanding lead among "I was surprised that the President had not were created by business leaders themselves American business executives. seized the opportunity to counteract more rap- rather than by tax policy or the deregulation of A Fortune magazine poll of 184 chief execu- idly what Clinton was doing" in Silicon Valley, banks that stimulated lending. tives taken in July after Ross Perot withdrew he said. "Unless a President were a dictator, and we from the race showed President Bush favored At an Oct. 15 news conference in Santa Clara don't want that in this society, he couldn't have by 85 percent, with just 9 percent for Governor organized by the Bush-Quayle '92 campaign, stopped my peers from making all the dumb Clinton. Such samplings have limited statistical Dr. Amelio said the Bush trade policies had moves in the 80's that sucked the strength out of validity, but a fax poll conducted last week of the economy," Mr. Galvin said. "Frankly, I 219 small-business owners by Ernst & Young. don't think Presidents have all that much to do the accounting concern, showed that 51 percent with how an economy goes." planned to vote for President Bush, with 18 The candidate who's for David Packard. the 80-year-old billionaire percent for Mr. Perot and 15 percent for Gover- and chairman of Hewlett-Packard, agrees that nor Clinton. W.R. Timken Jr., chairman of the Timken what business wants on the President's power Is limited in the face of an increasingly global economy. Company, a manufacturer of roller bearings taxes, interest rates and "President Bush has really been a victim of and specialty steel products based in Canton, the condition of the world economy," he said in Ohio, said business leaders in Ohio were "over- the Federal deficit. an interview. "That makes it difficult in this whelmingly for President Bush." Mr. Timken is election because not many people understand the state's fund-raising chairman for the Presi- that. dent. and he accompanied Mr. Bush Wednesday "My view is that the President's experience, on his speaking tour of Ohio. his relationships with other countries is very Many executives and small-business owners helped American chip makers double their important. The proposals Clinton is making are interviewed this week said the President was share of Japanese chip orders, to 16 percent, not realistic. He probably won't be able to do the candidate most likely to follow a set of adding 25,000 jobs in the United States economy what he plans to do, and things may become policies that would keep taxes and interest since 1986. even worse if he does. Perot is pretty much out rates in check, restrain the Federal debt and Likewise, Paul H. O'Neill, chairman and chief of It." the surge in health-care costs, and nudge the executive of Alcoa Inc. in Pittsburgh and head economy toward a broader recovery. of a White House advisory group on education, Data Buoys Hopes Yet several said they were concerned that the said the President had not received or asked for Several executives said their hopes for an President had lost precious time by undersell- much praise for setting ambitious education Improving economy were buoyed Wednesday ing to voters many of his first-term accomplish- goals and stirring action at local levels. by the Commerce Department report that the ments, as well as his plans to put more focus on "It was an historic achievement, but no- economy grew at a rate of 2.7 percent in the domestic problems, especially the economy. body's paying any attention to it," said Mr. third quarter. during his second term. O'Neill, a senior White House budget official in Gilbert F. Amello, president and chief execu- the Nixon and Ford Administrations. "Once in a "We asked American corporations to become tive of the National Semiconductor Corporation, while, one hears Bill Clinton say how he contrib- leaner and more competitive, and I think in Santa Clara, Calif., said he was surprised in uted and that President Bush gave him credit they've done that," said Donald B. Marron, the last few months to discover how much work for it, which is true. But it was all under the chairman and chief executive of the Paine White House officials had completed on high- President's leadership. There is a lot going on, technology policy plans for a second term. but he has not done a good job of articulating the While some Republican executives, like John importance of what he accomplished." Continued on Page D9 Bush Favored by Executives in 1981. Continued From First Business Page Mr. O'Neill struck a common theme, saying that because President Webber Group. "We asked American Bush could not be elected for a third individuals to go from being spenders term in 1996, he would be free to act to savers. And they are doing that." aggressively to limit spending. He Both trends, he said, would eventu- added that he hoped the President ally make the economy stronger, but would disregard conventional Wash- have dampened growth during the ington advice and talk frankly about Bush Administration by adding to un- the perils of the mounting Federal employment and slowing consumer debt. spending. If taxes were raised under "I'd like to believe that the Ameri- a Clinton Presidency, Mr. Marron can people are willing to do some- added, "it would be a further drag on thing serious about the deficit," Mr. the economy." O'Neill said. "That means reducing Betty Hardle, majority owner and their time at the pig trough, or pony- chief executive of Good Value Homes, ing up some more taxes. The world is which builds 200 to 300 homes a year picking up its pace, and we re going to in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area, said lose ground unless we solve some of she would vote again for the Presi- these problems." dent, though reluctantly. Policies and Jobs "I had hoped that he would be a A study of economic policies advo- more forceful leader somehow," she cated by the Bush, Clinton and Perot said. "The No. I issue is building an camps sponsored by the National economy that creates jobs. I'm Center for Policy Analysis concluded tempted to say that a little Govern- last week that the Bush plan would ment spending would help. But over a add 602,000 jobs to the demestic econ- longer picture, I'm not so sure." omy by 1998 as low interest rates Small-Business Incentives stimulate economic growth. James 1. Milner. owner of an elec- The Clinton program would cut trical construction and engineering nearly a million jobs during the same company in Lexington, Ky., said period; 335,000 jobs would be lost President Bush had the best position under the Perot plan. said the pri- of the three candidates for improving vately financed research center. The tax incentives for small businesses organization. based in Dallas, studies like his, with its 225 employees. Federal tax policies. Many of these Bush supporters The center added that economic said the Democratic majority in Con- proposals embraced by Edmund P. gress and the Republican White Brown Jr., the former Governor of House were both to blame for the California and an unsuccessful Dem- heavy spending that have helped ocratic candidate for President this cause the Federal debt to more than year, would have created 2.4 million double, to nearly $4 trillion. since jobs - the most of any plan offered President Ronald Reagan took office by this year's candidates. WASHINGTON EDITION/LOS ANGELES TIMES FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30, 1992 COLUMN LEFT/ MARTIN MAYER Turning the Wheels for a Better Deal Workers mistrust government, tiveness" in a time of falling asset prices, Karl Marx posited an "iron law of capital- sensing that it regards them as ism" that would lead to the "immiseration" disposable servants. of the work force. It was the genius of America-the reason ours became the American century-that America proved I England, the Catholic populist G.K. n 1911, on the occasion of a strike in him wrong. But for the last 20 years, their noses pressed against computer screens, Chesterton wrote a bit of doggerel verse the economists in our business schools about King Dives walking in his garden in have been trying to prove him right. an unfamiliar silence. Dives wondered why One of the functions of government in the machinery of the mills had stopped, the United States has been to persuade and heard a chorus of voices from beneath enterprise that its constituency is wider the ground: than just the entrepreneurs. We promoted Call upon the wheels, master, call upon the collective. bargaining to remind manage- wheels; ment that workers are partners in produc- We are taking rest, master, finding how it tion. We forbade deceptive advertising to feels, give consumers confidence that what they Strict the law of thine and mine: theft we saw bore a reasonable resemblance to what ever shun- they got. We limited the emissions of All the wheels are thine, master-tell the smokestacks and controlled the flow of wheels to run! effluent into our rivers to make manufac- The verse comes to my mind whenever I turers better neighbors. hear some panjandrum of the Treasury or The question about taxes, surely, is not governor of the Federal Reserve-or, whether they are high or low but whether indeed, President of the United States- the community gets its money's worth wondering why Americans don't feel any from paying them. Taxes much diminished confidence in the economy. They lack from what we now pay would still be a confidence because they feel that nobody is rip-off as the price of the government taking care of them. President Bush would like to -give us. In the last dozen years of emphasis on On the other hand, it isn't impossible- the "supply side," Americans have learned unlikely, but not impossible-that a Clin- that their government sees them as ser- ton or a Perot presidency would renew vants, sometimes superfluous servants, of good feeling about government and the the wheels. They hear the bells tolling for country, and about what good government the 30,000 layoffs at IBM, the closing of can do for the country. If Americans began Willow Run, the restructurings at the to feel once again that the government banks, and they understand that these they elect is on their side, government bells toll for them. King Dives tells them to might be a bargain even at the price of additional taxes. return to the stores, to shop till they drop, to turn the wheels again-but they have "The fundamental function of the law," other things on their minds. McGeorge Bundy once said, "is to prevent A few months ago, the chairman of the natural unfairness of society from General Motors told an appreciative audi- becoming intolerable." For a quarter of a ence of institutional shareholders that his century, we have had federal governments exclusive goal was going to be the profita- that believe unfairness is perfectly OK so bility of the enterprise. Not the perform- long as you can make out any kind of a case that it's natural. ance of the work force or the quality of the product or the satisfaction of the consum- An ever-increasing proportion of the ers or the reputation of the brand-just the population feels the unfairness of govern- profitability of the company, quarter by ment and behaves accordingly. The wheels quarter. To that end, one closes factories, jam. The roots of this recession, in other freezes salaries, reduces medical coverage, words, are profoundly political, and only a out-sources parts to get the cheapest stuff political change will get us out of it. to put in the cars-and writes pink slips wherever possible. The market loved the Martin Mayer, a New York-based busi- speech, and the price of GM stock quickly ness writer, is the author of "The Greatest rose by 40%. But such actions do not build Ever Bank Robbery: The Collapse of the confidence. When the market rewards the Savings & Loan Industry." (Macmillan, management that reduces the head count, 1990). the heads got nervous and exportation doesn't cheer them up. More than a century ago, watching a similar quest for international "competi- 'If Americans began to feel once again that the government they elect is on their side, government might be a bargain even at the price of additional taxes.' WASHINGTON EDITION ANGELES TIMES FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30, 1992 U.S. Treasurer Target of FBI Investigation By RONALD J. OSTROW and ERICHARRISON TIMES STAFF WRITER WASHINGTON-The FBI is in- vestigating U.S. Treasurer Catalina Vasquez Villalpando, one of the Bush Administration's highest- ranking Latinos, for allegedly vio- lating federal statutes by accepting travel, lodging and possibly other benefits from a private company, sources close to the inquiry said Thursday. FBI agents searched four build- ings in the Washington area and one in suburban Atlanta on Please see PROBE, A9 PROBE: Treasurer Is Targeted by FBI Continued from A1 center of controversy in the presi- Wednesday, reportedly seizing dential campaign in August be- bank records, computer files and cause she characterized Democrat- boxes full of papers. ic nominee Bill Clinton and former The Atlanta location was the San Antonio Mayor Henry Cisne- office of Communications Interna- ros, who is campaigning for Clin- tional Inc., of which Villalpando ton, as "two skirt-chasers." was a senior vice president and She and President Bush quickly partner. The company also has apologized for the remark. But a offices in Washington and Los top Clinton aide, campaign com- Angeles. munications director George Ste- Villalpando, 52, could not be phanopoulos, called for her dis- reached for comment Thursday missal by Bush. night. She was appointed U.S. Treasurer by Bush in 1989 after serving eight years in a variety of C ommunications International, whose current relationship posts in the Ronald Reagan Ad- with Villalpando could not be im- ministration. She is past chairman mediately determined, reportedly of the Republican National His- provided the telephone hookup panic Assembly and, as treasurer, that permitted U.S. forces involved oversees operations of the U.S. in the 1991 Persian Gulf War to mint. talk to relatives in the United States. A lthough the investigation fo- An Atlanta television station, cuses on favors that she alleg- ABC-affiliate WSB-TV, reported edly accepted from Communica- Thursday that agents searched the tions International, the search Communications International of- warrants listed a wide range of fice there until midnight Wednes- serious crimes, according to sourc- day before leaving with a rental es familiar with the inquiry. They truck filled with items that had include bribery, conspiracy to de- been seized. fraud the government, making Joseph Profit, founder of the false or fraudulent claims, racket- company, told the station that eering, making false statements to federal authorities advised him he federal agents and fraud by wire, was not a subject of the investiga- radio or television. tion. "They told me we were wit- The sale ch Worken Tleases 2..d would be asked to on the basis of affidavits that provide information. detailed the alleged criminal con- Profit, a former player for the duct but were sealed by federal Atlanta Falcons in the National courts. Villalpando is the central Football League. also said that he figure in the investigation, al- found the timing of the raid suspi- though other individuals are also cious because it came a week believed to be involved. sources before the elections. However. po- close to the matter said. litical motivation seems unlikely Asked about the investigation since the investigation is being late Thursday, a Justice Depart- carried out under a Republican ment spokesman said: "We just administration. can't comment at all." Villalpando whose signature ap- Ostrow reported from Washington pears on dollar bills, was at the and Harrison from Atlanta. ASHINGTON EDITION/LOS ANGELES TIMES FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 Outcome Likely to Shape Future of Supreme Court Courts: Retirements would create opportunities, and names of potential nominees are on the minds of Democrats and Republicans. Independent candidate Hoss Perot's campaign manager, Orson Swindle, said the Texas billionaire But Democratic activists say it is has not addressed the issue of wrong to assume that Cuomo By DAVID G. SAVAGE TIMES STAFF WRITER appointing Supreme Court justices. would be nominated. "I think it's Duke University Law Professor not very likely" Cuomo would be ASHINGTON-For the last Walter Dellinger, a Clinton advis- named to the high court, said one W 25 years, Republican presi- er, noted that prior to 1970, a activist with ties to the Clinton dents have appointed every new typical Supreme Court nominee campaign. "There would be too much of a political cost." justice to the U.S. Supreme Court. had decades of legal experience as As a result of their long domina- well as some national prominence. tion of the White House, Republi- "[Oliver Wendell] Holmes. F. cans from Richard M. Nixon [Louis D.] Brandeis and Lewis through George Bush have created Powell were in their 60s when they a high court that is sympathetic were appointed to the court," Del- toward government power and linger noted. By contrast, Ronald linton came to the governor- skeptical about claims of individual Reagan chose Douglas Ginsburg, rights. Four of the nine justices 41, who subsequently withdrew. ship of Arkansas with a strong said in June, for instance, that they' Bush selected David H. Souter, 50. legal wife, Hillary. graduated from background. Both he and Yale his would vote to overturn the right to and Clarence Thomas. 43. choose abortion-meaning if just The most often named potential Law School. He taught constitu- of Clinton nominees include such na- tional law at the University one more justice agrees with them. the landmark Roe VS. Wade deci- tionally known politicians as New Arkansas and served as the state's a sion will be reversed. York Gov. Mario M. Cuomo; Senate attorney general: she became Rock. If Bush is reelected, by 1996 all Majority Leader George J. Mitchell prominent attorney in Little nine justices would likely be con- (D-Me.), a former federal judge; But unlike many governors, on Clinton has made little impact servative Republican appointees. the state's courts because judges With one or two appointments, however, a President Bill Clinton there are elected. not appointed. Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (D- Bush's first high-court appoint- could push the court back toward Conn.), a former state attorney Souter, has proved to be a the ideological middle. The oppor- tunity could come if two justices general and friend of the Clintons; ee, moderate conservative. Bush's follow through on hints they might and Sen. Patrick J. Leahy (D-Vt.), second one, Thomas, has aligned soon retire. a member of the Judiciary Com- himself with the court's right wing. Who would Bush appoint in a One, Justice Harry A. Blackmun, mittee. second term? The names most offi- a moderate liberal who wrote Roe, Also on the list are prominent law professors such as Harvard often cited by Administration U.S. turns 84 next month. The other, Justice Byron R. White, 75, the University's Laurence H. Tribe cials and GOP activists are lone remaining Democratic ap- and a nationally recognized chil- Solicitor Gen. Kenneth W. Starr, dren's-rights advocate and former U.S. appeals court Judge Frank U.S. pointee, is often aligned with the civil rights attorney, Marian Easterbrook of Chicago, and court's conservative wing; he was one of the four justices who de- Wright Edelman. Trade Representative Carla An- clared he would reverse the abor- Another frequently mentioned derson Hills. tion-rights decision. name is that of a relatively obscure As the government's top attor- but highly regarded black jurist, F or the record, Clinton's aides Amalya L. Kearse, 55, who has ney has made both friends before the Supreme Court, and compiled a moderate, pro-business Starr enemies. He is affable and highly say it is premature to talk about any nominees. Clinton has not been record on the U.S. 2nd Circuit capable as an advocate, but he has elected and no Supreme Court Court of Appeals in New York. pressed the court to overturn Roe, The list also includes U.S. ap- the abortion-rights decision. a po- justice has announced plans to retire, they note. peals court Judge Richard S. Ar- sition that could spell trouble if he But with the Arkansas governor nold, 56, of Little Rock, Ark., a needed confirmation from a Demo- holding a lead in the polls, liberal Clinton friend; U.S. appeals court cratically controlled Senate. legal activists and some Clinton Judge Stephanie Seymour of Tulsa, advisers have been quietly trading Okla., and former Columbia Uni- names of potential nominees. versity Law School Dean Barbara They say Clinton would stress Aronstein Black, 59. quality and achievement, rather But the name that has gained the than ideology. But he has warned most attention is Cuomo's. that abortion rights are hanging by In June, during the taping of a a thread and has said his nominees cable-TV music program. Clinton would support Roe. Later, he said cited Cuomo as someone who simply that they would support a would be a "good Supreme Court right to privacy, which was the basis for Roe. Clinton edged away from the New Clinton's nominees would likely York governor, saying he had not be older and more established in intended to make a "commitment. their professions than recent Re- I said he's the sort of person I publican choices and may well think would be a good justice." have served in other public posts. In TV ads and in recent speech- The Reagan and Bush adminis- es, Bush has derided Cuomo. a trations often sought out young, fierce foe of the death penalty. as academically oriented lawyers for typical of the soft-on-crime judges key judgeships. ignoring older and picked by liberal presidents. better-known Republicans. "We must not go back to ap- pointing judges to the court who oppose anti-crime measures, who oppose the death penalty for these most heinous of crimes," Bush told a police chiefs meeting in Detroit on Sunday. Jackson Hopes for Pay-Back From Campaign Democrats: The civil rights leader is working to pile up IOUs. If the civil rights leader at arm's length for Brown declared. "He's cut all kinds of radio fear that associating with him too closely ads, traveled throughout the country, and victorious, Clinton camp says, requests will be carefully considered. would be controversial and perhaps coun- is a very positive force." terproductive, especially in the South Jackson, who is campaigning in a plane By JACK NELSON to put a future Clinton Administration in where white voters in recent presidential provided by the Democratic National Com- TIMES WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF his debt. elections have voted overwhelmingly for mittee, is believed to have been especially George Stephanopoulos, Clinton's com- the Republican nominee. effective in are.: of the South and South- W ASHINGTON-Bill Clinton's cam- munications director, this week called Clinton's decision has resulted in several west where there are large minority popu- paign, after months of treating the Jackson's activities "critically important" awkward joint appearances with Jackson, lations and many minorities are running for Rev. Jesse Jackson as though he were to the campaign and said they should help including one at the annual Black Family congressional seats. But he also has cam- radioactive, is now counting on the civil spur a big voter turnout. Jackson, he said, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 Reunion held on the Washington Monu- paigned heavily in other regions of the rights leader to spur a big turnout of young is "pragmatic, a real pro" who understands ment grounds in mid-September. At that country and ha: attracted large audiences and minority voters that could be crucial the importance of a Democratic victory event, Clinton started to leave the stage on college camp:tses;-where Democrats say for the Democratic ticket in a tightening after 12 years of Republican rule. after addressing the crowd when Jackson he has stimulated increases in voter regis- presidential race. "Jesse's doing a great, untold job for the handed him a Rainbow Coalition T-shirt tration. And Jackson, who for months carried on campaign and drawing crowds of 5,000 and and directed him back to the podium to a semi-public quarrel with Clinton over the 10,000 wherever he goes," said David announce the registration drive Jackson extent of his commitment to helping mi- Wilhelm, Clinton's campaign manager. was about to begin. A fter campaigning Sunday and Monday The governor, although apparently tak- in Texas, -here he addressed large norities, is now laboring quietly to pile up what he hopes will become valuable IOUs J ackson has followed a hectic pace in en aback by Jackson's-maneuver, told the audiences and le throngs of voters to the owed to him by a Clinton White House if campaigning in more than 30 states since crowd that Jackson would "go around the polls to vote in pre-Election Day balloting, the Arkansas governor wins Tuesday. mid-September when he and his private country and try to galvanize every person Jackson said he believes the new Congress will include "about 40 African-Americans, Democratic officials acknowledge that organization, the Rainbow Coalition, in this country who isn't registered and tell any requests or proposals Jackson makes reached an agreement with the Democratic them their vote counts just as much as the 20 Hispanics and two Native Americans." National Committee and the Clinton cam- rest of us." The relatively large number of minority after the election will get careful consider- paign to undertake a nationwide voter While their relations have remained candidates running in such states as North ation. WASHINGTON EDITION/LOS ANGELES TIMES Jackson's present low-profile efforts registration drive under their auspices. His cool, Clinton aides say the governor and Carolina, Georgi>, Florida, Mississippi and campaigning has been publicized in states Jackson have been conferring periodically Texas, he said, should bring out a large mark a sharp change from 1984 and 1988, where he has traveled, but has gotten scant on the telephone. minority vote for Clinton. "Those candi- when he insisted on obtaining highly notice elsewhere. Chairman Ronald H. Brown of the Dem- dates are pulling their own weight and visible commitments from the Democratic Although still bitter about being shunted ocratic National Committee, who managed pushing the vote for the Democratic tick- nominees after his own bids for the party's aside by Clinton, Jackson said in an inter- Jackson's 1988 campaign and now serves as et," he said. presidential nomination fell short. Those view that he will discuss differences over a frequent go-between for the two men, Although expressing confidence that commitments were seen by many strate- campaign tactics and policy priorities with said he believes Clinton and Jackson will Clinton will win, Jackson worries that gists as harmful to former Vice President the Arkansas governor after the November resolve whatever policy differences they political analysts will attribute a Derpo- Walter F. Mondale and then-Massachu- election. have after the election. Except for Jackson cratic victory, at least in part, to the tactic setts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis in their The campaign "is not about Gov. Clin- wanting to put higher priority on spending of keeping him at an arm's length. quests for the White House. ton's tactics, we can address that after the for social programs, Brown said, he sees no "The reason that Clinton will win," Clinton made clear from the outset that election," he said. "It is about beating serious policy differences between them. Jackson asserted, "is not his tactics. It is he intended to avoid what he saw as their George Bush and electing Bill Clinton." "I know that nobody has worked harder the economy and the fact that urban, mistakes. Jackson decided this fall to halt Jackson, 51, had expected to play a more to register voters, to motivate and inspire suburban and rural America have a com- his public sparring with the Democratic prominent role in the Clinton campaign. voters to come and vote for the Democratic mon economic goal. There is a tidal wave of nominee, lick his wounds in private and try But Clinton's tactics have been to deal with ticket and for Clinton than Jesse Jackson," hope and Clinton's riding that wave." WASHINGTON EDITION/LOS ANGELES TIMES FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30, 1992 The Importance of Being Responsible Tuesday's vote is too crucial to be influenced by unnecessarily early network projections Are Americans taking a renewed That prospect, however, could be The networks reject these urgings. healthy interest in how they're gov- adversely affected by the interest of They argue that they deal in informa- erned, and by whom? Voter registra- the television networks in projecting tion-in the immediate case, their tion figures nationwide suggest that a a winner in the presidential race. projections of a presidential winner- surprisingly large number are at least That concerns officials in California, to which the public has a timely right; thinking seriously about going to the Oregon and Washington, where polls this is guaranteed by the Constitu- polls next Tuesday. If those numbers close as late as three hours after those tion. But of course the issue here is prove to accurately indicate actual in the eastern United States. The not censorship or any other infringe- turnout-as we hope they do-it Western states have joined with the ment on the First Amendment. The would be good news indeed. nonpartisan Committee for the Study issue is how the timing of the net- Voter turnout in presidential and of the American Electorate to ask the works' projections of a presidential other elections has been declining networks not to project a presidential winner might affect the outcome of steadily over the last 30 years. That winner until after 8 p.m. on the West voting in many states. means, bluntly, that a shrinking per- Coast. Curtis Gans, director of the Early projections, made while the centage of citizens has been directly committee, asks that nothing be done polls in the West remain open, could deciding who will hold office and on Election Day "to further erode influence the results in some con- indirectly determining what laws are voting and further undermine confi- gressional and other contests by dis- likely to be enacted, laws that will dence in the electoral process." More couraging turnout; even if only 1% or affect the lives of everyone in this than 150 members of Congress have 2% of voters decide at the last minute country. In fact, if the trend contin- issued a similar appeal to the heads of to stay home because of TV forecast- ues, before long fewer than half of the major networks. "Every time a ing, the outcomes in any number of eligible voters will be going to the network projects while citizens are close races could be changed. The polls. That's not a prescription for still voting," says the congressional networks should reconsider. What's effective democracy. That's why the letter, "it sends a message that the involved here is not free speech or prospect of a higher voter turnout votes of those still waiting to cast even journalistic competition, but this year is encouraging. their ballots do not matter." simply responsible restraint. Clinton Vows Better Efforts Against AIDS red ribbons to commemorate victims of the including breast and ovarian cancers. Campaign: Democrat says disease, Clinton said: "We must all remem- During his address, Clinton paid homage Bush has failed to fight the ber, for all of its terror and far reach, it is to what he called "American heroes"- still a disease; it is not vengeance or those battling AIDS or the human immuno- disease strongly enough. He also punishment or just desserts, it is an illness." deficiency virus that causes the disease. calls for an end to Clinton strongly asserted that his major Among those he cited were Elizabeth role in the issue would be as an activist Glaser and Bob Hattoy, who spoke about misconceptions about the illness. President talking about and leading the their experiences at the Democratic Na- fight against AIDS. tional Convention, and their counterpart, By CATHLEEN DECKER "Americans are dying of the most treat- Mary Fisher, who spoke at the Republican TIMES POLITICAL WRITER able affliction, ignorance, and we need to Convention. cure that first," he said. He also saluted Los Angeles Lakers star J ERSEY CITY, N.J.-In a speech prom- Earvin (Magic) Johnson, who recently ised last spring and delivered five days before the presidential election, Democrat- T he Arkansas governor said education endorsed Clinton after resigning from about AIDS should begin in the early Bush's National Commission on AIDS. ic nominee Bill Clinton on Thursday indict- grades and should be "blunt and clear" in ed the Bush Administration for failing to tone. mount a stringent attack against the spread M embers of the AIDS network were "Children should be discouraged from extremely enthusiastic about Clin- of AIDS and laid out a plan he said would having premature sexual conduct and from ever having any conduct with needles ton's speech. reverse that course. Jane Silver, policy director for the Speaking to several hundred people in carrying drugs, but they must be told that American Foundation for AIDS Research, the rotunda of the Jersey City courthouse, this killer can kill them, and their odds of Clinton also demanded that the American getting it are far greater than most of them described it as "powerful and historic." "He said all the right things," she said. public strip away the ignorance that sur- think," he said. He also suggested that those who have "It's the first time in more than a decade of rounds the perception of the disease. the disease bear a responsibility to prevent the epidemic that a national leader has He said he would fully implement two embraced this very difficult issue-more existing sets of federal recommendations its spread. dealing with AIDS and establish a national "There is at the beginning the matter of than embraced it, put forward a plan to personal responsibility." he said. "Those fight it. We all have been asking for educational program to battle misconcep- tions about the illness. who think they may be positive should be leadership, funding and a commitment to tested as soon as possible so they can be end the epidemic, and that's what we heard He pledged to increase federal funding for research and treatment, fully imple- treated. Those whose behavior puts them tonight." ment the Ryan White Health Care Act and at a high risk should reassess that before Dr. June Osborn, chairwoman of the appoint one person to coordinate all federal they put themselves and those who they National Commission on AIDS: applatided disease-fighting efforts. Clinton's courage in making the speech so "We have suii not done enough as a Clinton chose Jersey City for his speech close to the election. nation to stop the spread of AIDS and to because it has the sixth-highest rate of "I have always considered AIDS to be help those who are living with it." he said. AIDS in the country. Clinton placed the not a political issue. but a human issue," "Most of us have preferred to believe AIDS AIDS crisis within the larger framework of she said. "I am delighted to hear it is not our problem, that it's a problem for a the health care crisis. which he has placed discussed at a leadership level with as high few particular or isolated groups in our near the top of his agenda during the visibility as can be managed-since it society The truth is, it is every- campaign. involves us all." body's problem." He also said he would place more Pointedly. before an audience that in- emphasis than President Bush has on Times staff writer Mariene Cimons, In Wash- cluded those with AIDS-and others wearing research into diseases suffered by women, Ington, contributed to this story. WASHINGTON EDITION/LOS ANGELES TIMES FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30, 1992 Clinton Camp Seeks Loan as Funds Drop By DOUGLAS JEHL TIMES STAFF WRITER The Clinton campaign is negotiating to W ASHINGTON-Gov. Bill Clinton's buy costly half-hour blocks of air time presidential campaign, running short Monday on all three networks the evening of its $55-million taxpayer-financed war before the election, a step that independent chest in the final days of the election, has Ross Perot has also taken. An affirmative asked the Federal Election Commission for ruling by the FEC could make available permission to borrow more money in additional funds that could be devoted to anticipation of an expected reimbursement additional advertising. by the U.S. Secret Service. With $7.9 million left in its war chest, the Such a ruling would be unprecedented, Bush campaign sought to make the most of and President Bush's campaign on Thurs- the Clinton cash-flow problems, with Ma- day night denounced the request as evi- lek accusing the Democrat of failing his dence that the Clinton team had misman- "first test in managing federal funds." aged public funds and was seeking an Some Bush aides acknowledged private- unfair late influx of cash to shore up its ly that the Clinton campaign had a point in lead. its complaint that campaign finance regu- "The FEC should deny this panicked lations are skewed toward the incumbent request for relief from profligate spending The Bush campaign, for example, has the by the Clinton-Gore campaign and make use of Air Force One but need not reim- Bill Clinton play by the rules," Bush burse the government for many expenses campaign manager Frederic V. Malek said until after the election. at an evening news conference. By contrast, the Clinton campaign must The Clinton campaign insisted it was pay upfront costs for its two charter faced with no more than a temporary aircraft and await often belated reimburse- cash-flow problem, and blamed its difficul- ment from the Secret Service agents and ties on inequities that force a challenger to traveling press contingents. pay upfront Secret Service costs that an Times staff writer David Lauter contributed incumbent never needs to bear. "We're not running out of money," to this story. Clinton chief of staff Eli Segal said by telephone from the candidate's Little Rock, Ark., headquarters. "We're borrowing solely because we have not yet gotten our reimbursements." Under the rules, any presidential candi- date who accepts the $55 million in federal campaign funds, which are generated through voluntary checkoffs on income tax returns, must abide by strict limitations on spending and fund raising in the general election. Top Bush campaign officials said that the Clinton team had been aware of the regulations since the start of the campaign. A written statement issued by the Republi- can campaign accused the Clinton camp of "fiscal irresponsibility." "They're broke," Malek said. "They've run out of money. It's an embarrassment." What is left in each campaign's coffers is now of increasing importance, as all three major candidates plan this weekend to broadcast well in excess of $1 million in advertising to sway public opinion before voters go to the polls. Both the Bush and Clinton camps have already taken noticeable steps to conserve funds for that final flurry, with the Presi- dent's party frequently taking refuge in inexpensive hotels while Clinton's travel- ing band makes do with older buses and cheaper airplane food. WASHINGTON EDITION/LOS ANGELES FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30, 1992 TIMES Comment A 1 this point, hard facts intrude. The networks and some members of Congress have insisted for years ON ENTERTAINMENT that the problem is not the projections but the absence of a uniform poll closing time nationwide. "We have Networks horse-and-buggy election laws in an electronic age,' Ed Turner. CNN executive vice president, said Thurs- Call Election, day. Various plans have been advanced and Voters Lose to rectify the problem. but Congress has resisted passing any. Thus the onus of responsibility remains with they networks. The networks argue, correctly. that By HOWARD ROSENBERG there is no conclusive evidence that projections of winners alter election T he major television networks outcomes. Nor, however, is there said today that they plan to conclusive evidence that they don't. project a presidential winner a Or won't. day before the election, eliminating the "I know that 10,000 angels saying so need for voters to go to the polls. [that other elections aren't affected by The networks hailed the move as a early presidential projections] won't victory for "the people's right to know convince people in the West," Turner the outcome of an event before it acknowledged. But even if there is happens." one milliliter of doubt, that should be Spokesmen for ABC, CBS, NBC and justification enough for the networks CNN brushed aside criticism of their to hold back. decision by saying that any attempt to Although some would argue that have the networks withhold data from projections, technically speaking. are their scientific surveys of randomly not news, few have questioned the selected psychics would amount to accuracy of the exit polls on which censorship. "We're in business to re- they're based. And the networks will port news, not withhold it," said one not call presidential races in individu- spokesman. al states before the polls in those Nahhhhhh. states have closed, and will name a Even the networks wouldn't go that national presidential winner only far. Yet what they do promise to when a candidate is projected to have do-again project a presidential victor won enough states to earn the 270 before some states' polls close-is electoral votes required for victory. unpleasant enough. At the least it's a The narrower the electoral gap, the slower the national projections. symbolic disenfranchising of voters in Tuesday would not be the first time the West and, at the most, it's an the networks' created a controversy intrusion that could affect the out- come of local and state races. by projecting a presidential winner based on their exit poll data. As far A possible scenario: back as 1980, that data figured in It's a little after 5 p.m. You're Please see ROSENBERG, B9 preparing to leave for your polling place to vote for one of the Top Three when you hear an announcement on TV that George Bush, Bill Clinton or ROSENBERG Ross Perot is the presidential winner. Even if your candidate is the anointed Continued from B8 one, your jaw still drops. It's as if President Jimmy Carter's decision America held an election and didn't to concede victory to Ronald Rea- invite you. You feel cheated, robbed, gan 90 minutes before polls closed as if you were sitting pretty and about on the West Coast. And network to bet in a high-stakes poker game projections of Reagan's 1984 victo- when someone reached across your ry and George Bush's 1988 win also shoulder and snatched your royal flush. preceded the closing of polls in the West, with CBS and ABC leading More than merely disheartening. it's flat-out demoralizing. the pack at 6:17 p.m. and 6:20 p.m., respectively, more than hour Do you pull yourself together and ahead of more cautious NBC and proceed to the polls anyway SO that CNN. you can cast your now irrelevant vote for President and, much more impor- The network excuses for doing tant, also weigh in on the two Senate this haven't varied through the races and numerous other important years. ballot choices facing you and your "We're not in the business of fellow Californians? withholding news, an ABC Or do you pack it in and stay home, spokesperson said recently. "At even though yours might be one of CBS News, we don't believe in the deciding votes in the tight Beilen- withholding information from the son-McClintock race in the 24th Con- people." Dan Rather echoed this gressional District? Or in that county supervisor contest? Or in that city Balderdash. These are the kind council election in the suburb where you live? Or in balloting for local and of self-serving platitudes that the state initiatives? news media cower behind when And if you're not voting because. they are challenged. Actually. they the presidential race has been called withhold information all the time. by the networks. how many others They withhold the names of are doing the same. and what cumula- confidential sources. They with- tive impact will that have? The com- hold the names of juvenile offend- mon wisdom is that small turnouts ers. They withhold information benefit the Republicans and large that could endanger the national turnouts help the Democrats. Thus. security. They withhold the names should early presidential projections of rape victims. (NBC broke away stunt voter turnout in the West, might from the crowd on the latter in the not other partisan contests be affect- case of William Kennedy Smith's ed? accuser, but if the other networks weren't guarding the woman's identity then why the blue dot?) WASHINGTON EDITION/LOS ANGELES TIMES FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30, 1992 COLUMN UNE China Taps Into World China got a $60-million, inter- est-free World Bank loan last year to help the urban transport system Coffers in Shanghai. It obtained a $162- million loan, also interest-free, to aid Guangdong province, China's richest area and the fastest-grow- The story of Beijing's ing region in all of East Asia. successful run on the The United States contributes more than any other nation, about World Bank is a tale of $1 billion each year, to the World persistence (by China), of Bank fund that makes these inter- est-free loans. avarice (in Western Former U.S. Ambassador to Chi- na Winston Lord said these World Europe and Japan) and of Bank loans are "an indication of intrigue (by the Bush business as usual between China and the rest of the world, a testi- Administration). mony to China's success in having the world overlook what it's doing By JIM MANN to its people." TIMES STAFF WRITER How did it happen? The story of Beijing's successful WASHINGTON-Three years run on the World Bank is a tale of ago, in the aftermath of the deadly persistence and diplomatic skill crackdown on demonstrators in (by China), of avarice and mer- Tian An Men Square, the United cantilism (in Western Europe and States and the other leading indus- Japan) and of intrigue (by the trialized nations organized a freeze Bush Administration). on international lending to China, An investigation by The Times cutting off Beijing's access to bil- shows that Japanese, French, Ger- lions of dollars in credit. man and Italian companies pressed Yet since then, with the quiet their governments to make it pos- acquiescence of the Bush Adminis- sible for China to get World Bank tration and the active encourage- loans again. Beijing could then use ment of Japan and Western Euro- the proceeds to buy those coun- pean countries, China has managed tries' power plants, dams, helicop- not only to get the money flowing Please see CHINA, A3 again, but to increase it above the levels that existed before 1989. Last year, the Washington- based World Bank lent Beijing a stunning $2.5 billion, more than it provided to any other nation. China got more World Bank money than all the countries of Eastern Europe combined. And more than a third of these loans were interest-free for periods of three to four decades. The loans-many of them from a special World Bank fund set aside for the poorest nations on Earth- help to buttress the booming Chf nese economy. While China has enough lingering poverty to quali- fy for the bans. its foreign-ex- change reserves now rank among the largest in the world, and its economic growth rate is several times greater than that of the United States. CHINA: Beijing Makes Successful Run on the World Bank Continued from At 22% of the total. such as the Asian Development Bank, cut back in alone." ters and other equipment. European nations were willing .0 support Under its charter, the World Bank is not off their loans. too. Even worse, from "Procurement won out over idealism," The government of then-Prime Minister some lending to China, and the Bush supposed to make loans-or to stop them- China's viewpoint, Japan held up plans to former World Bank President Barber Con- Toshiki Kaifu pressed the World Bank to Administration did nothing to stop them. for political reasons. The bank's goal is to extend a five-year, $5.6-billion package of able Jr. said in an interview. reopen Its financial spigots to China. And "In 1989-90, the Americans were active- raise living standards throughout the The Dush Administration, facing con- subsidized loans to China-the largest Japan urged the Bush Administration to ly campaigning against China," one bank world, and its decisions are supposed to be single source of credit available to Beijing. gressional pressure to hold the line against support a resumption of international official said. "After mid-1990, 11 Ameri- based exclusively on economic factors. Commercial banks in Japan and other World Bank lending to China, publicly lending. cans weren't saying no." A law passed by Congress, however, nations followed suit. opposed most loans. But privately. the At the time, the Bush Administration Whenever a proposed loan reached the requires the United States to oppose World Beijing's propaganda apparatus was Administration went along with the Japa- had its own conflicting producties. For World Bank's board, the U.S. representa- Bank lending to any country that engages nese and European eagerness to restore forced to put out press releases reassuring nearly a year, China's leading advocate of in "a consistent pattern of gross violations live abstained. That permitted the Bush China's access to cheap credit. And there the world that China would not default. democratization, Fang Lizh, had been of internationally recognized human Administration to tell Congress. truthfully, "China has always kept its debts within its are signs that the Administration may trapped inside the U.S. Embassy III Reijing. rights." (An exception permits the United that there had been no change in the U.S. have agreed to do this in secret diplomacy paying capacity." proclaimed one state. He faced arrest and imprisonment if he left States to support loans that serve "basic stance of refusing to support: loans to with Beijing. ment released by the Chinese Embassy In the embassy. but China would not let him human needs.") China. Yet Administration officials aban- Washington. Supporters of the huge World Bank leave the country. In the past, the United States has used doned their previous efforts to found up In early December. 1989, White House lending program say that it helps to On June 25, 1990, after two weeks of this provision to prevent the World Bank allied backing for a freeze on loan? National Security Adviser Brent Scow- alleviate poverty In China. However, crit- intense negotiations between the Bush U.S. officials maintain that there was from lending money to Vietnam. Laos. ics. both outside and Inside the Bush croft visited Beijing to try to settle a series Administration and China, authorities in Chile under Gen. Augusto Pinochet and little they could do because the Epropeans of disputes between the United States and Administration, believe that the huge Beijing suddenly allowed Fang to leave and Japanese were determined to resume the Philippines under President Ferdinand lending should be curtailed. China, including World Bank lending. their country on a U.S. military plane. And E. Marcos. the loans to China. "We could stomp our Exactly what was negotiated during this in July. at the Group of Seven's annual Two weeks after the Tian An Men feet, jump up and down, but it ivouldn't "T he repressive central government visit remains secret. But on Jan. 10, 1990, economic summit in Houston, the United of China is the beneficiary and gets Square crackdown, then-Secretary of have made any difference," one dminis- China agreed to lift martial law in Beijing. States for the first time indicated that It tration official said. the credit" for the World Bank loans, said State James A. Baker III, under pressure Within hours. after a top-level meeting of would go along with Japan's $5.6-billion Over the following year, th World FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30, 1992 Richard Schifter, who served as the Bush from Congress to take action against the Bush Administration officials, the United package of loans to China. Bank lent China $1.6 billion. Bank officials Administration's assistant secretary of Beijing regime, announced that the United States announced what State Department state for human rights until he resigned States would support a freeze on all World spokeswoman Margaret Tutwiler called U ntil this summit, the Administration realized, one source said, that "a:- long as early this year. Bank lending to China. had sought allied unity 111 holding the you stay under $2 billion, no one will say partial change in our World Bank policy." Over the last decade, China has gar- While the United States is the World The Administration agreed to open the sanctions against lending to Beijing. But in anything." Still, the officials were careful nered more than $13 billion in loans from door a crack to permit World Bank loans Houston, Bush told reporters that Japan to approve only those loans that could be Bank's largest shareholder, it cannot by the World Bank, nearly $6 billion of them designed to address China's "basic human "is a sovereign nation that can make up its portrayed as contributing to Chir #'s eco- Itself ensure a cutoff in lending. Each nomic reforms. Interest-free. nation on the bank's board casts votes in needs." China and World Bank officials own mind on a lot of questions. They The World Bank was set up in 1945 to proportion to its financial contributions. rushed to win approval of loans that could work very cooperatively with us, but Finally. in the summer of 1991, World raise the living standards of developing be termed humanitarian in nature, such as sometimes they have interests (of their Bank and Chinese officials found the countries by helping them gel capital. I n July, 1989. at a summit meeting of the those for earthquake relief. own) that prevail." perfect project with which to bre open world's seven leading industrial democ- At the same time, Bush and other G-7 what remained of the allied structions Some of the bank's loans are made at racies in Paris, Western European nations S till, the United States and its allies normal market rates but with longer leaders opened the way for broader World against lending. and Japan agreed to follow the U.S. lead, periods of repayment than ordinary com- continued to oppose any other kind of Bank lending to China by suggesting that China had applied for a World Ba, k loan assuring a halt in all lending to China. mercial loans. lending. The result was that In the year loans would not, in the future, have to be to build a hydroelectric dam and under- These so-called G-7 nations (the United But other World Bank loans-those after the Beijing massacre, China received exclusively for humanitarian purposes. ground power station in Sichuan pr. vince. States, Japan, Britain, France, Germany, about $600 million in new loans from the Baker said the seven nations would ex- Called the Ertan Dam, the project is one of made by the International Development Italy and Canada) control more than 50% World Bank, a little more than a quarter of the largest of its kind in the world. Assn.-are interest-free for periods of 35 plore whether they might approve World of the vote for World Bank loans. to 40 years. The borrowers must merely the amount it had originally expected. Bank loans "that would contribute to the It was an energy project, hard to Charac. Conable, the World Bank president, was pay a small service fee of 0.25% to 0.75% Chinese leaders were angry about the reform of the Chinese economy." terize as promoting economic refor, n. But furious. "They (China) were important: To continuing Western clampdown. "They per year. Were these changes the result of a deal? from the standpoint of World Banh poli- begin with, they owed us more than $10 WASHINGTON EDITION/LOS ANGELES TIMES These IDA loans are designed for coun- wouldn't talk to us for quite a while," one Did China agree to set Fang free in tics, it had another virtue. "The general billion," said Conable, a former Republican senior Bush Administration official said. exchange for an easing of U.S. opposition contractor was German, and the two tries where per capita income is less than congressman and an associate of Bush. If As the first anniversary of the Tian An $610 a year. China, with a per capita to World Bank and Japanese loans to subcontractors were French and Italian," the World Bank cut off future loans to Men Square crackdown neared, Chinese Income of only $370, is one of about 40 China? Was Fang. in effect. a hostage who Conable said. China, it would be putting its existing loans diplomats enlisted the powerful support of was ransomed for billings of dollars in nations that qualify for IDA funding. But in jeopardy. W (th strong European support. the one country, Japan. loans to China? its robust economy and financial stability Moreover, Conable said, the credit World Bank approved a $387-mil- The $5.6 billion in loans that Japan froze also qualify it to obtain other World Bank Asked whether there Was an agreement, freeze seemed to confirm the worst fears of lion loan. Within weeks. a smiling Chinese in 1989 was to have been devoted to more one senior Bush Administration official financing that most IDA loan recipients are Third World nations-that the World Premier LI Peng signed contracts for work than 40 major projects inside China for the Ineligible to receive. replied "I don't really want to Rel into that Bank is an imperialist institution. "I didn't on the project with the French, German construction of railroads, harbors and "It's not as though China were a classic stuff. You can use the Inkage in time and Italian companies. want to have a picture drawn for develop- power stations. Japanese companies were lesser-developed country with no trained between China's release of Fang and the Ing countries of an institution that was run Once the Ertan Dam money was ap- supposed to get roughly half the contracts restoration of its loans| as your hook." personnel and no ability to do things on its by the major powers." proved, World Bank officials knew that all for these projects. Another senior official inststed that there own," one Administration official said. The World Bank's cutoff devastated restraints on lending to China had been Without new credit, China could not buy "They could borrow on private markets at was no explicit deal but acknowledged that China's ability to borrow money abroad. removed. And over the last year., they Japanese goods and equipment or service setting Fang free removed an "irritant" reasonable rates. What they getting is The World Bank had lent It $1.3 billion in have broken all records in clearing new its debt on Japanese loans. "The Japanese cheaper financing." between China and the West that paved the year before the 1989 crackdown and credit for Beijing. suppliers wanted to go back in [to Chinal," the way for new loans to China. The world's wealthiest nations give the "As it turned out," one Western official was planning to lend about $2.3 billion in one source at the World Bank said. "But After the Houston summit, World Bank World Bank the money for the interest. the 1989-90 fiscal year. involved in the three-year dispute over there was a public-opinion problem in free loan program. The U.S. share is about officials handling loans 10 China noticed a Other International lending institutions, loans to Beijing said, "China's business was Japan. The Japanese didn't want to go dramatic change. Japan as well as Western too good to keep away from." WASHINGTON EDITION/LOS ANGELES FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 TIMES PERSPECTIVE ON ROSS PEROT A Loose Cannon From Dallas know that revelation of the Regan memo said. "I said North prob- A Reagan White House letter would have been ex- ably despaired of [House Speaker| Tip memo shows him acting ceedingly damaging in late O'Neill ever bringing up legislation for 1986 to Reagan. who was Contra aid so he was willing to try as middleman during emphatically denying any anything to keep a band of raggedy-ass the Iran-Contra personal knowledge of ran- Contras in the jungle. I reminded Ross som efforts for hostages. that they were both Annapolis gradu- investigations. As I assessed it two years ates. He said he knew this." ago (talk about bad judg- The Iran-Contra investigators further By SEYMOUR M. HERSH ment). Perot seemed an odd learned that Perot had been in direct number who-could it be?- contact with a group of high-ranking W hat frightens me about Ross somehow was unable to comprehend the retired admirals raising funds for Poin- Perot as President IS not that inappropriateness of his actions; Reagan dexter's legal defense and suspected that he takes foolish. and even was out of office: nobody cared much Pero: had offered to contribute heavily bizarre. steps to protect his family from anyway about Iran-Contra. and so I to Poindexter's defense if he would mythical threats. but that there is direct dropped any mention of his involvement insulate the President. Retired Rear evidence that SIX years ago he interject- in my New York Times Magazine article. Adm. C. A (Mark) Hill Jr.. long-time ed humself inappropriately. and perhaps which was highly critical of the way the Poindexter colleague and coordinator of illegally. into one of the nation's most congressional committees did their job. his defense fund. subsequently con- serious crises: Iran-Contra. He may not Here's what should have written: firmed the quid pro quo of Perot's have even known what he was doing. The Iran-Contra investigators had a offer-that Perot would "pay for all of My Perot story begins two years ago. different interpretation of Perot's action John's legal defense and a lifetime While researching a magazine article on that was triggered by their sense of the income if he would go testify-do the the Iran-Contra scandal, I learned that possible illegalities of the ransom effort cover-up-without taking the Fifth." some investigators on the Senate and as well as the previously unpublished Hill said the offer was rejected out of House Iran-Contra committees were contemporary office notes of Donald T. hand. convinced that Perot had offered hush Regan. Reagan's chief of staff. The notes It was after the contact with Perot. money in what they thought was an showed that Regan had been assured by Hill said, that he and others intensified attempt to cover up his their fund raising on be- and President Reagan's half of the admiral. "The activities on behalf of SAYAM! purpose was to preclude the hostages. a flag officer from being The committees had CAVALRY in the pocket of Perot If evidence. which still has HAS you've got a string on not been made public, AERRIVED! him with your money, showing that Perot had you've got a control. offered in December. Perot maintains his only 1986-at the height of goal was to protect the interest in the scandal- honor of the uniform. to pay legal fees for the Poindexter did not re- two key witnesses, Adm. turn calls on the-issue John M. Poindexter and this week. but North LL Col. Oliver L North. graphically described a if they would protect the Perot hush-money offer President by not testify- in his 1991 autobiogra- ing truthfully. The phy. "Under Fire." He wrote that Perot visited package included pro- viding for their families him and his attorney. Brendan V. Sullivan Jr., if they were given jail terms and helping them in Washington and said: find new careers. "Why doesn't Ollie just I interviewed Perot at explain to the FBI VOTE that the President didn't the time and he was, as BOSS know? If he goes to jail. he appears on television, PEROT I'll take care of his fami- seemingly honest and to ly. And I'll be happy to the point. What he said, give him a job when he however. was nonsensi- cal and contradicted by gets out" Perot later denied the North-Sulli- evidence. van account Told of the commit- The committee was tees' suspicions, Perot almost easually admitted making the Perot that Poindexter would not damage especially interested in Perot's involve- payment offers to North and Poindexter, the President, according to Pamela J. ment in the operation for which his aide but insisted he did so solely in an effort Naughton. a former assistant U.S. at- received a presidential note of safe to get out the full story: "I went to both torney in San Diego then investigating conduct-a poorly conceived North hos- men and told them that if they tell the the suspected White House cover-up. tage ransom operation in the Middle truth. I'd pay all their legal expenses and Naughton this week recalled that East involving two agents of the Drug see that they got jobs. I thought it looks Regan's notes showed that Perot tele- Enforcement Administration "There's terrible for two military officers to take phoned Regan pn Dec. 14. 1986-three no question." Naughton recalled. "that the Fifth Amendment." weeks after the scandal became public- the DEA operation was illegal." The and told him that he (Perot) was in White House had made no attempt to Perot said his offers of support were based on the belief that "everybody contact with Poindexter's people and get a formal presidential finding for the knew what was going on" and the future had this message for the President: covert operation, as required by law, nor of the President "was not at issue. It's a Poindexter will testify that the Presi- was there any legal basis for using dumb thing." he added. "I couldn't dent did not know of the diversion. private funds for an American intelli- Regan subsequently dictated a care- gence operation. Perot also had a motive figure out why telling the truth would hurt the presidency." fully written memorandum for the re- for covering up his action. Naughton In the same interview, however. Perot cord about the Perot call. in which he added: "He had conspiracy exposure on made clear why the truth would have said that he had listened to Perot's offer the money issue. If give my money to a been devastating to President Reagan. to pay all of North's and Poindexter's federal agent to investigate you. that's a He revealed, again almost casually, that legal bills and responded that he "could crime." Reagan had provided Jay Coburn, a not be part of any such thing." Regan Naughton is still convinced that a close Perot aide, with a letter of safe further quoted Perot as saying that "all cover-up prosecution of Perot was a conduct before the aide flew to Europe he wants to do is get the facts out and go possibility. The essential question re- on with the business of governing." mains: Did Perot believe he was doing in 1985 with $2 million of Perot's money for use as ransom in a highly secret The unpublished memorandum- the right thing in whisking up to which I obtained only this week and Washington and saying whatever he White House operation to rescue Ameri- cans held in Lebanon. an operation which was not available to the Iran- said to North. Poindexter and Regan? He Contra committees-showed. however, is a man not bothered by. not even deemed illegal by the Iran-Contra com- mittees. "The letter was in case Coburn that Regan and Perot understood that aware of, what he does not know. even was stopped going through Customs North and Poindexter had no intention when the gravest of constitutional and carrying that much cash, And Perot of hurting *: rident "I the presidential crises are at-stake I don't John Poindexter would like to say, he want his finger on the button. added in his cryptic fashion. "I don't think it was signed by automatic pen." didn't investigate the situation and Seymour M. Hersh is a Pulitzer Prize- It was mind-boggling. Perot had to didn't tell the President about it." the winning investigative reporter WASHINGTON EDITION/LOS ANGELES TIMES FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30. 1992 Bush Greeted by Applause- and Challenges By JAMES GERSTENZANG TIMES STAFF WRITER GRAND RAPIDS, Mich.-As BUSH:Cheers, George Bush grinds his way to the Why Clinton Is Still the Favorite election now four days away. he revels in the wild enthusiasm of Challenges I by 2 points. 7 points 6 Bill Clinton abead WASH the crowds he encounters and in or 10 points? Over the 11 results from some polls indicating Greet Him past few days, polls MONTANA NORTH HJL-4 ME have diverged on the OREGON 3 DAKOTA-3 MINN. that the race is tightening. \VT/ size of Clinton's 7 10 IDAHO SOUTH WIS. MASS. The President was pumped up. national lead in the DAKOTAS 11 422 Continued from A1 WYDLENG MICH giddy and even giggling at one popular vote over a NEVADA KWA 18 RJ-4 Bush said his views on abortion NEBRASKA point Thursday as he struggled 7 PA. 23 COMNL-1 had evolved over the years-he President Bush and UTAH ILL 8 OHIO -NJ-15 inexplicably to keep a straight face supported abortion rights until Ross Perot. But COLORADO 22 12 21 DEL. 3 state-by-state CALIF. RANGAS MO. MD.- 1980. when Ronald Reagan chose 5/12-19 while attacking Democratic nomi- 54 6 surveys of the 11 KY-E him as his running mate. Compro- nee Bill Clinton's draft record. He electoral vote show N.C.14 mise over military programs was ARIZONA OKLA TENN. necessary to work with Congress. that Bush still must NEW . ARK. S.C. referred to the Democratic ticket MEXICO G as "two bozos" and scorned the Bush said, and the agriculture thread the eye of MISS ALA subsidies were necessary to per- the needie to win 7 GEORGIA TEXAS LA. 13 "faithless Republicans and faith- suade Europe to drop Its own farm reelection. 32 less Democrats who wrote me off a:d. But the question brought back ALASKA FLA into focus the scrutiny the voters 25 two months ago.' are giving the candidates-and the Where candidate But then, every once in a while, skepticism they have brought to HAWAII he runs smack into reality-that the presidential campaign leads above the margin In the final days of Bush's re. Clinton ahead in 24 states: To win of orror in the most recently published cold shower of a sharp-edged election drive it is just such ques- the White House, a candidate state poll-and number of electoral votes question from a would-be voter, tions that bring reminders of the needs 270 electoral votes: the Gray: Where neither candidate political reality that has stalked candidate who receives the most White: Black: reminding him that in what he holds a lead above the margin um for months: He has trailed votes in a state gets all that state's Clinton Bush of error. or polls conflict. calls this "weird" election year, it Clinton in the polls throughout a electoral votes, regardless of his has become socially acceptable to general election campaign shaped margin. In the latest compilation use the President of the United by the sour economy and the of state surveys by the Hotline, an Warning: This data comes with The challenge for Bush: But equally sour mood among voters. electronic newsletter, Clinton some bright red caution flags. The those caveats don't change the States as a verbal punching bag. While some polls-those of The holds a lead outside of the polls' quality of state polls varies fundamental challenge for Bush He spent an hour chatting up Times and the Washington Post margin of error in 24 states and considerably; and the Hotline To catch Clinton. the President mong them-have found Clinton viewers of CBS' "This Morning"- the District of Columbia with 274 notes that the surveys in 32 states must win almost all of the langing on to a roughly 10-point electoral votes-enough to win on are at least a week old-and thus battleground states-from Texas. and appreciatively sighed when a ead among likely voters, others, Tuesday. Bush holds a clear lead do not reflect the narrowing of Louisiana and Florida in the woman caller from Blue Bell, Pa., acluding CNN's daily survey, pic- in only three states. with a total 14 the race over the past week. The South. to New Jersey and ure the race as much closer. down told him: "I want to say how much electoral votes. Perot leads in no fact that both Clinton and Bush, Michigan in the North-and Da 3-point margin. states. In the remaining states, for example. are devoting 80 much reclaim at least some states now respect you have here." either no candidate holds a lead A nd suddenly the Bush effort time to Ohio this week suggests it believed to be leaning toward But then came the cold water: A has come together: Crowds greater than the margin of error in may be closer than the roughly Clinton. such 28 Georgia and questioner demanded to know why re flocking to arenas, and a hard- the most recent surveys or polls 10-point advantage two surveys Ohio. conflict. Bush's own character shouldn't be harging, determined President is gave the Democrat this week. tsponding, spicing his comments Source: The called into question, citing the ith the sort of Bush-isms that President's change-of-position on and grammarians and other lovers Los Angeles Times abortion rights, his new support for the English language into fits. nd he and his staff, which is military weapons programs he gumentatively citing the more once shunned and his boost of vorable public opinion surveys, agriculture subsidies, despite hav- e insisting that regardless of rlier polls and how the campaign ing criticized European govern- paraged them. the country. is ments for price supports. med for a Bush victory. Please see BUSH, A7 The President's focus Thursday $ on the mostly white suburban ghborhoods that ring Detroit. on the Republican enclave of Grand Rapids in western Michigan. Former President Gerald R. Ford. who represented the Grand Rapids area for 251/2 years in Congress. campaigned at his side. So did actor Bruce Willis. The visit evoked memories of a race the Republicans don't like to use as a parallel for the 1992 campaign: Ford's 1976 race against another Democrat and son of the South. Jimmy Carter. That was the last presidential campaign a Re- publican lost. The margin was roughly 2%. or 2 million votes. And like the current effort. it was directed by James A. Baker III. Bush's chef of staff. -I remember 16 years ago when I had a contest with a Southern governor running around the country calling for change. change. The voters in a very close election decided they wanted the change." Ford said. "They ended up with a liberal Democratic Administration liberal Congress of the United States and after four years of BERNIE BOSTON La Angeles Tumes change what did they get? Thir- President Bush and actor Bruce Willis campaign at a community college in Warren, Mich. teen percent inflation. 21% interest rates and a misery index [the combination of inflation and unem- "Listen to Gov. Clinton and ployment) of 20. an all-ume high." inflation were to reach the level it Ozone Man' -Bush said. using his "Absolutely essential," IS the way In Warren. Mich.. the heart of attained when Carter was Presi- newly hatched name for Tennessee the President put it. Macomb County. Bush shouted his dent. "milk. which costs. what. And while the President worked Sen. AJ Gore. Clinton's running way through a rally in a gymnasi- $2.70. would be $8.23. Bread. 84 mate. who has written a book on the crowd in Macomb County. um of the county community col- cents. would be up about $2.50.* Clinton addressed a lunchtime ral- the environment. "This guy 15 so lege. far off in the environmental ex- The virtually all-white. and A tential judicial appointments, nd. questioning Clinton's po- ly about 15 miles away in down- town Detroit. treme. we'll be up to our neck in largely blue-collar. suburb north- owls and out of work for every he said Clinton has made "a terri- east of Detroit IS crucial to the Meanwhile. Bush campaign American. This guy's crazy. He IS ble threat-he says he wants to put President's hopes for carrying spokeswoman Tone Clarke said way out. far OUL Far out, man." Mary Cuomo. Mano Cuomo, on the Michigan's 18 electoral votes-out the President was experiencing a The race. he says over and over, Supreme Court." of the 270 needed for election-on surge of support not only in Micht- is about "experience. philosophy. Tuesday. It 15 home to many SO- "You talk about disaster-that gan. but in such other battleground and. yes. character. character. called Reagan Democrats. who "My dog Millie knows more would be it." Bush said of the states as Wisconsin. Ohio and New deserted their party in presidential about foreign affairs than these prospects of the New York gover- Jersey. and in Georgia-all states elections C: 27 the last 12 years. nor joining the high court. the President swep: four years ago two bocos. Bush said. "It's cracy." -To 3 cheering. sign-waving Days after Check answered a Michigan :5 one of the toss-up She also said that Reagan will throne arrayed before him on a questioner wordering :f be knew states that both campaigns consid- campaign for his former vice pres: basketball Court. Bush said that the cost of such consumer goods as er important-more so for Bush in dent over the weekend. spraking a between ::: and Claim. ": = and (MATE :: raiting off the face of afficult going = such = Ninth Carrina and MA differences . night and day." current prices. 3.4. said that If states as California and New York staty. Georgia CLINTON: Appeals to Traditional Democrats in Push for Votes Continued from A1 "The American people see him Until recently. the candidate had together the more liberal residents for what he is, a desperate person spent much of his time in Republi- of urban Detron and the more who just wants to hold power and can areas, in states that have been conservative suburbanites who doesn't give a rip for them," he said the GOP's domam in recent elec- had fled the city. in Toledo, Ohio. tions, zinging the President and First he said that auto workers Clinton has been aggrieved for hoping to peel off Bush's support should not pay heed to Bush's days because of Bush campaign with a message pitched to moder- contention that he and his running advertisements that the Arkansas ates. mate, Sen. Ai Core of Tennessee, governor says distort his record at But on Thursday, it was back to would invoise environmental home and his proposals for the the constituencies that have his- standards this would ravage the nation. At one point Thursday. he torically proved loyal to Demo- blue-collar industry. Then he di- maligned the President and said crats-the urbanites. rected his message to nearby sub- that he would "slam him home" in "You see all these pundits talk- urban Macomb County, where the days before Tuesday's vote. Ing about how this election is Bush campaigned on Thursday. "He has put on ads all over gonna come out? What they're "Mr. Bush/Will go to Macomb America that are lies," Clinton said, really saying 18 the young won't County today to tell those people early in the day. "The man has no really vote, the working poor won't that I'm not their kind of person," core of conviction. This is not really vote, the blue-collar people he said. "I 1'01 a lot more in Harry Truman." will get divided and distracted common with the people of Ma- Both Clinton and Bush have People will give up on their fu- comb County, than George Bush been competing as inheritors of ture," Clinton told several thou- ever had." Truman's legacy throughout the sand people gathered in Detroit's general election campaign. Cobo Hall for a gel-oul-the-vote linton commonly expresses rally. A Hhough he displayed no overt faith that he will win the There, Clinton turned to a sym- nervousness about the polls election by professing that he IS on showing the presidential contest to bol of the civil rights movement, "the right side of history." that the FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30, 1992 be suddenly tight, Clinton ac- Rosa Parks, to plead his case. vast changes that have taken place knowledged Bush as a threat and "We must vote in large numbers in the world ince the Cold War independent Ross Perot as an un- In order to make the great changes ended represe sterling oppor- predictable factor in the race. needed in our country today." said tunity for a De hocrat. the woman who helped fuel the "Anytime you're an incumbent On Thursday. however, he tried President and you just don't have battle for civil rights when. 37 to use history in a more specific years ago, she refused to take a any standards, you have a chance way. In Michigan, he recalled the Associated Press seat in the back of a bus. "We to win. especially when Mr. Perot words of Robert F. Kennedy. as- Gov. Bill Clinton gives a thumbs-up sign during an appearance at the University of Toledo in Ohio. cannot afford to continue to be in is spending anything to get elect- sassinated in 1968 as he sought the ed." he said. the condition that we are in. Democratic presidential nomina- He added: "We're going to win Clinton opened his day at the Clinton, coming to the podium a personal Income," he said. "So tion. And in Toledo, the words he anything could ever this election. I have always University of Toledo, where he few minutes later. paid tribute to when Mr. Bush tells us that we quoted were from-another Demo- The governor took pains to de- thought I was the underdog, but accused Bush of "an abject denial should rejoice in our economic Parks and said her experience crat who won tight presidential fend himself against Bush's criti- of responsibility" in handling the -should serve "to remind us that we I'm going to keep fighting." plight, I think we have to tell him race, John F. Kennedy. cisms, specifically a charge by the At railles in Toledo, Detroit and nation's affairs. Most of his dis- are one people it's time to move beyond the pas- that we must go In the last week of the 1960 President that Clinton's call for Jersey City, N.J., Clinton played course dealt with the economy. in forward together or we will sink sivity and complacency of his pres- election, Clin onesaid, Kennedy "change" would leave only that- divided." the underdog card with abandon keeping with his campaign's belief Idency and his campaign, asked voters to cast their ballots change-in American pocket- while steering clear of the rancor- that a continual drumming of the Among some Democrats, Clin: "A President: who asks us to based not just on the candidates, books. ously personal tone of his earlier President on that subject will pay settle for less can't bring out the ton's strategy of focusing on sub- but on their personal concerns: "It's a funny line. but 11 len't comments. big rewards. urban voters had been seen as best in us." Clinton continued "A "I believe we want leaders to true," Clinton said. "I wouldn't do As for his proposals for America, He roundly belittled Bush's risky in the event of a close President who's out of touch with challenge us, not just make up WASHINGTON EDITION/LOS ANGELES TIMES that." Clinton hewed to the relatively praise of positive economic statis- the people can't take charge of our race-as this one may be. Under charges at election time," Clinton tics released earlier this week. For the Democratic campaign, cautious course he has plied re- that thinking, Clinton must now future. And when Mr. Bush looks said. "I believe that we want to be cently; a long-awaited speech on "In this Administration, for the turnout increasingly looms large as hope that the traditional Demo: at an anxious and frightened told again that the only limit on AIDS Thursday night in New Jer- first time since before World War a key to victory In Tuesday's crats from whom he has distanced America and tells us that is as good what we can to IS what we are election. It also accounts for the II, you have a decline in jobs in the himself will turn out in droves to sey was a compilation of previously as it gets, that says something willing to ask of ourselves, and subtle change in strategy by Clin- vote for him. announced proposals. private sector and a decline in worse about his presidency than what our. leaders are willing to ton. On Thursday. he tried, to knil insist on of theirselves." Clinton Plays Underdog, Calls for Big Turnout By CATHLEEN DECKER TIMES POLITICAL WRITER DETROIT-Democrat Bill Clin- ton, his longtime edge in the presi- dential race perhaps ebbing. played on the imagery of the underdog Thursday as he sought to ensure the big turnout that could be crucial to his success. He labored across Ohio, Michi- gan and New Jersey-on the tradi- tional stomping grounds of Demo- crats-calling on the image of the Kennedys and all but begging vot- ers to come to the polls. "As we come to the end of this campaign, I ask you to choose to change the world we have. to have the courage to say we can do better, to reject the politics of denial, division and blame which the Bush Administration has visit- ed on this country long enough," he said in Detroit, where a multira- cial audience applauded loudly. While he visited strongly Demo- cratic areas-a departure from his campaign pattern in recent weeks-Clinton was eyeing warily the apparent narrowing of his lead over President Bush in some public opinion surveys. As he had on Wednesday. Clin- ton at times lashed out angrily at Bush. But his approach was two- pronged: In his public rallies Thursday, Clinton delivered som- ber and high-minded rhetoric, out- lining with deliberation his policy differences with the incumbent. But in casual comments to re- porters, Clinton issued stinging criticisms of Bush. In sharply per- sonal tones, Clinton all but accused Please see CLINTON, A5 Bush of lying. A Vote for Bush and GOP Is a Wasted Vote, Perot Contends Campaign: In broadcast interview, he also defends recession is here. If you lived in Center near San Jose. his controversial charges that the Republicans were that insulated bubble they've cre- Perot, who is third in the polls. ated for the President, you has Indicated that he is counting on plotting a dirty tricks campaign against him. wouldn't know Iteither." a higher than normal turnout of Earlier In the day, the Perot new voters to give him an unex- FRIDAY. here.' By SARA FRITZ campaign issued a statement pected boost on Election Day. AI- TIMES STAFF WRITER While Perot leveled equal criti- charging that the news media is though some polls show the race FOR: clam at both Bush and Democratic unfairly portraying the 1992 presi- tightening between Clinton and D ALLAS-Independendent preai- challenger Gov. Bill Clinton on dential election as & contest strictly Bush, Clay Mulford, Perot's son- dential candidate Ross Perot, some issues and refused to say between Bush and Clinton. in-law and campaign counse), said expressing particular disdain for which of the two men he would Perot's press secretary. Sharon 11 is Perot's judgment that "it's President Bush and the Republican favor. he clearly reserved his Holman, also blamed Bush, Clinton impossible for Bush to win." Party. said Thursday night that harshest comments for Bush and and news reporters for causing his Bush dismissed the charge as people who support the incumbent the GOP. Independent campaign to become TIMES are wasting their vote because "He's history," Perot declared, mired In a controversy over Perot's "crazy" and White House Press Bush cannot win reelection. referring to the President. "The allegations about GOP dirty tricks. Secretary Marlin Fitzwater said it Appearing on CNN's "Larry people who are voting for him are "In the past week." Holman said, proved that Perot is "paranoid." Holman did not say who she King Live," Perol also defended his wasting their votes. I'm say- "we have been forced to respond to ANGELES controversial charges that the Re- Ing, don't throw your vote away. planted stories that have been thought had planted this alory with publicans last summer were plot- He indicated that he was simply apparently planted by the opposi- the news media. ting a dirty tricks campaign to responding in kind to Bush's state- Lion and have deflected us away Holman cited a number of in- wiretap his telephones and embar- ment that anyone who voted for from what we think are the major stances In recent days In which the rass his daughter, Carolyn. Perot would be wasting a vote. Issues of this campaign and the news media had falled to mention "Is " unthinkable that these Perot also took a jab at Bush for issues that are important to the Perot in discussing the election. people in the Republican Party failing to recognize the seriousness American people.' In particular. she objected to a might do it?" he asked. "This is the of the recession earlier this year. In an effort to redirect the media graphic used by Dan Rather on the same party that gave us Water- Bush contends that the economy is focus, Perot will embark Saturday "CBS Evening News" that referred gate. This is the same party that not as bad as many people think. on a two-day, three-state cam- only to Bush and Clinton. She also gave us Iran-Contra. This is the "Folks who didn't finish high paign swing through Florida, Kan- mentioned a straw poll ballot ap. party that's up to its ears in school. they've already figured out sas and California. On Sunday, he parently sent to schoolchildren by Associated Iraq-gate now. This is the same what the problem is," Perot said. will appear at railies at the Long Time Inc. that did not list Perot's group that's always hands off, Gee, "Belleve me, everybody out there Beach Arena, beginning at 2 p.m., name. The ballot listed Bush, Clin- Ross Perot talks to supporters as he arrives at CNN In Vashington on we didn't do it.' Sdthere's a pattern except the White House knows the and the Santa Clara Convention ton and "other." Thursday night for an interview on the "Lany Kink Live' show. EDITION/LOS ANGELES TIMES FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30. 1992 Perot Follows His Hunches ASHINGTON-Why did he do With Mixed Results Ross Perot lef: behind one of the endoring mystems of the 1992 campaign this week when he charged that Republican dirty tricks airned at his family and business forced him out of the In their place is a small staff of presidential race last July. He says inexperienced aides. Most do not he made the exploye charges only seem to even talk regularly with gadfly with low credibility. as the because he was forced to respond Perot. much less give him advice. basis for his allegations of GOP to media inquiries At a recent press briefing. Orson dirty tricks. But some people who know the Swindle. director of Perot's United Don Hewitt. executive producer cancidate say that in this extraor- We Stand organization. was asked of "60 Minutes," said that. when dinary move they saw Perot play. what Perot thought of Gov. Bill Perot urged him to check out his ing roles he has taken on again and Clinton's 1969 trip to Moscow. allegations of Republican plotting. again in his career: Perot the Swindle responded by asking the Perot cited a videotape of Barnes Hunch-Player. Perot the Vigilant reporters in the crowd whether and Bush's Texas campaign chief. Protector, Perol the Crusader. Perot had made any comment on James Oberwetter. apparently The billionaire Texan. they say, the trip. having an amiable conversation on is a man who has forever ignored One member of the Perot circle a park bench as his "single most others' advice to follow his gut this week confessed his nervous- damaging piece of evidence." feelings-often to glory. sometimes ness at Perot's lack of outside "Here's something intriguing to disaster. Perot is a shrewd input "I don't think he asked about Perot's personality: He's this anybody about this last decision," very shrewd person. this very NEWS ANALYSIS the friend said. shrewd businessman." said Mason. The dirty tricks charges resur- the author. "Yet there are times businessman who is nonetheless rected the old assertions that Perot when he proves to be so na- is a paranoiac or a wild man. "A ive He can be had surpris- highly credulous when it comes to threats against his family and him- hand grenade with 2 bad haircut," ingly easily." former White House speech writer But Perot's anxieties may not self. have been his only reason for And he is a man who is always wanting to publicize his anxieties eager to convince the world-and Peggy Noonan called him. about Republican dirty tricks. perhaps himself-that he is follow- But even people who dispute Since he re-entered the race. ing the best of motives as he charges that Perot is paranoid Perot and his aides had continued struggles in a glorious and danger- acknowledge that he is so sensitive to search for a satisfactory way to ous cause. to threats that he is willing to listen Last week. those tendencies explain the departure that had to wild-sounding accusations from broken the hearts of so many of his combined to persuade Perot to quarters that others would dismiss followers. finally go public with reports he out of hand. A smorgasbord of explanations had heard about Republican plans This is partly because billion- has been offered Perot preferred to disrupt his daughter's wedding aires are people who must spend to wait until he was on all 50 state and wiretap his offices. By doing much of their time fending off ballots: he wanted to junk his so, he could help build his growing those who would separate them useless campaign staff: he needed momentum, show the malicious- from their money-through fraud- to short-circuit the attacks from ness of his foe and finally give ulent business deals. dubious char- the press and the opposition and to supporters a more convincing- ities, even outright theft. "He's got reposition himself for a splashy fall and nobler-explanation of why he to keep his guard up," one friend abandoned their cause for 11 re-entry. said. But as press interviews with weeks As aides have noted, there is alienated ex-followers have con- "He has a champion complex." some objective reason for Perot to tinued to demonstrate. none of says Todd Mason. author of "Perot fear the Republicans. They. after An Unauthorized Biography." "He these had completely washed away all. were the party of Watergate. wants to lead"x disenfranchised the quitter stigma that Perot may This year. they were the ones who group to prosperity and vanquish have feared would follow his name evidently rifled the State Depart- an uncaring bureaucracy that's into the Encyclopaedia Britannica. ment files of Clinton's mother. And With the dirty tricks story. Perot trying to keep them down." This year's campaign demon- could finally lay to rest those strates why Perot believes that he earlier this year someone leaked doubts. And he could put his cam- should go with his hunches-and Navy records on Perot showing paign into proper context as an epic why sometimes that is a bad idea. that at the end of his active duty struggle against the oppressive some officers considered him too forces of the status quo. erot guessed right when he immature to captain ship. thought that with a single po- Yet there is abundant evidence W e're talking about some- that this fear is exaggerated. body who wants to be in tent issue. his feediot humor and Perot has contended that in 1970 the history books." Mason said. Red River twang he could mobilize a volunteer army. He was right the FBI told him he was the target With the story of GOP tricks. Perot again in his convictions that he of plots conceived by the North would establish himself as a man of noble deeds and "as an important could shine at the three-way de- Vietnamese to be carried out by bates and that with TV advertise- the Black Panthers. But an FBI person with important enemies." ments that defied all conventional official said this week that FBI files he said. wisdom he could attract an audi- from the time show that. although Perot's contention that he want- ence of millions. there were general rumors that the ed to keep the story bottled up is His habit of going with his gut panthers might try to hit promi- not entirely borne out by the facts. nent American businessmen. Perot Hewitt. the "60 Minutes" pro- was probably reinforced when he saw that he seemed to be better off was never mentioned by name in ducer. acknowledges that he told # without a huge and costly cam- such reports. "We didn't reach out Perot that CBS intended to go with paign apparatus. to warn him." an FBI source who the story on the allegations wheth- er or not Perot cooperated-a "He followed his own counsel in has searched the files said the beginning. and he was on a Perot's credulousness was also standard journalistic maneuver to demonstrated in his reliance on the force a source's cooperation. But roll." said Steve McElroy. an Aus- tin entrepreneur who is a partner information of Scott T. Barnes, a Perot. far from trying to hide the story. had for weeks been directing with Perot in a beverage busi- Hewitt to the videotape of Barnes ness. "He hired a bunch of experts and Oberwetter he thought would and it was a disaster." Then. "he cleaned the slate-and suddenly he prove the Republicans' malicious intent. Hewitt said. was on a roll again. "I've got to say to myself. Why "He has every reason to believe is he waving me off with one hand, he should follow his own counsel.' and egging me to go see a tape that But other impulsive decisions he says is the definitive proof of have blown up in Perot's face. what has happened?" Hewitt said in an interview. some close associates acknowl- Perot also trotted out the dirty edge. tricks tale at the end of a three- Some advisers still believe that hour interview with editors and a his July departure was a mistake. reporter of the Boston Herald. as Some say his choice of retired Vice they met with Perot last week to Adm James B. Stockdale for a consider a possible endorsement. running mate was also an explod- "Me brought : = Tell ing cigar. And then there was the Chandler. executive editor of the dirty tricks charge. which polls newspaper. now suggest has halted Perot's And at a rally Sunday in Fle- momentum. mington. N.J.. Perot again promot- Some associates confess private- ed the story. perhaps more than he ly that they believe Sunday's move needed to 1: he did not intend to was a blunder and worry that his emphasize it. habit of rejecting advice has led He urged the New Jersey audi- him to a dangerous isolation: ence to watch the "60 Minutes" Since his July 16 exit from the broadcast so they would under- race. Perot has stayed at arm's stand why he withdrew. And be length from the two people once described the alleged dirty tricks heeded: Tom Luce. his lawyer and not as simply one of the reasons. former campaign manager. and but as the reason for his departure Morton H. Meyerson, who runs Perot's computer business and for. merly chaired his campaign. WASHINGTON EDITION/LOS ANGELES TIMES FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30. 1992 COLUMN RIGHT/ TOM BETHELL Silver Lining to a Clinton Presidency He would be in line of fire the extent to which the end of the Cold early, setting up opportunity for War would bail out the Democrats. Domestically, Clinton would be tightly conservatives in 1996. constrained by markets. Government debt as a percentage of GNP is already twice F the most dispiriting in memory. It's or conservatives, this election may be what it was when Jimmy Carter became President. Global markets will be poised to hard to envisage any outcome of the respond negatively if Clinton shows signs presidential race that would stir much of trying to expand the already excessive enthusiasm on the right. A come-from-be- reach and power of the state. hind victory for President Bush? A conser- Clinton, moreover. does not to appear to vative speech writer mentioned to me that share in the moral ambition (on behalf of the prospect gives momentary pleasure, others) that characterizes the left as a but upon reflection the heart sinks. As whole. (But one wishes someone had asked John Podhoretz points out in the current him to explain his comment in the third National Review, a reelected Bush would debate that "middle-class people" will almost certainly "grow," the code-word "have their fair share of changing to do," for a move to the left. including "the challenge of becoming con- In any event, a Bush victory now seems stantly re-educated.") Clinton speaks so- unlikely. In the all-important economic licitously of the middle class, perhaps area, the President has not convinced because he knows that he cannot be voters that he has learned from his mis- elected without them. Perhaps he also takes. When Bill Clinton attacked "trickle- knows that he cannot govern without down economics" in the third presidential them. He has come close to giving a debate, Bush mystifyingly replied that he no-new-taxes pledge for the middle class. "didn't want any more trickle-down gov- All to the good. ernment." What was that supposed to If the polls are right, the Democrats are mean? Bush has tried to associate his about to monopolize power in Washington. record with Ronald Reagan's (15 million But they are also about to discover that, jobs created in the "Reagan-Bush years"). when they had a compliant Republican in But Clinton understandably points out that the White House, they never had it so Bush himself, in 1980, attacked the theo- good. Moderate Republicans like Bush retical basis of the Reagan recovery as enact their opponents' agenda, and so are "voodoo economics." Clinton also charges obliged to take the blame when things go that Bush has actually tried to spend more wrong. Democrats have not noticed how money than Congress wanted: "It's hard to convenient this arrangement has been- outspend Congress, but he tried." The policy influence without personal respon- economy will decide the election, and Bush sibility-because their own people have has not given us reason to think that he been excluded from power. will do better than Clinton. But with a Clinton presidency, we will The best that can be said for Ross Perot see a great and welcome clarification. No is that he may weaken the future President longer will the clamorous victim groups by confining his vote to less than 50%. who have made much of public life so Otherwise there's little to recommend the unbearable in recent years be able to howl man, who comes across as a silly, strutting their customary accusations at Republi- demagogue. He's on the verge of giving a cans in the White House. Oh, they will try. bad name to billionaires. With his unsup- The policies of the Reagan-Bush years will ported and (I believe) mendacious charg- become the legacy of the Reagan-Bush es, his antagonism toward Bush has be- years. But soon enough Bill Clinton will be come so conspicuous that it might end up in the direct line of fire. A President helping him. Clinton will have to ride the bucking The prospect of a Clinton presidency is bronco of interest groups, and there's of course not at all appealing to conserva- always the possibility that he will fall off. tives, but in his case second thoughts do at At that point, moderate Republicanism least lighten the gloom and disclose a silver should also be in terminal disrepute. By lining. How much damage could a Presi- 1996, there's a good possibility that conser- dent Clinton actually do? By contrast with vatives will have recaptured control of the the 1970s, when the last Democratic candi- GOP. date was elected, foreign affairs are much diminished in importance. Ceding territory Tom Bethell is Washington editor of the to the communists is no longer an option. If American Spectator. an Andropov or a Brezhnev were still in the Kremin Clinton little chance of victory. Bush never did grasp 'A President Clinton will have to ride the bucking bronco of interest groups, and there's always the possibility that he will fall off.' THE WALL OTHERT OVVIMAL © 1992 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. AU Rights Reserved. Perot's Support FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30. 1992 The poll suggests that Mr. Bush still Younger Voters Vital to Clinton faces formidable challenges if he is to Slips, but Impact overtake the Arkansas governor in the How young people turn out this year campaign's final weekend. Forty-four per- really does make a difference. Because cent of voters, asked to choose among a they overwhelmingly prefer Mr. Clinton, if In Race Remains menu of elements that would affect their they turn out in heavier-than-expected presidential choice, selected the economy numbers it would mean a better showing as the top factor. At the same time, Tuesday for the Democrat than the polls Mr. Bush is rated the voters' third choice indicate. Where His Supporters Go as the candidate who would do the best job Anecdotal evidence, including the huge television ratings drawn by the debates, on economic matters, winning the endorse- May Determine if Bush ment of only 21% of voters, compared suggest that there's more interest among with 33% who give the top rating to Mr. Americans in this campaign than in other Has Chance of Winning recent elections. But this interest isn't Clinton and 28% who choose Mr. Perot. There is no way to predict with cer- reflected in the rate of people eligible to tainty whether Mr. Perot will continue to vote who are actually registered to vote. By DAVID SHRIBMAN slide and, just as important, whether That's up only about 1% over 1988, though, And JAMES M. PERRY Perot voters slip into the Bush or Clinton because the population keeps growing, the Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL columns or decide simply not to vote. sheer number of people registering to vote WASHINGTON - Support for Ross climbs every four years. Perot is slipping, and where it goes proba- Courting Perot Supporters With final figures now available from 30 bly will determine whether George Bush The Bush camp says it's stepping up states, the increase in the rate of registra- has any chance of pulling off an upset in personal appeals to groups of Perot voters tion this year is a meager 0.96%, according Tuesday's election. and is working to win a number of endorse- to the Committee for the Study of the The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC ments from prominent Perot backers, par- American Electorate; the registration rate News poll gives Gov. Bill Clinton a 44% to ticularly in industrial battleground states. 34% lead over Presi- Mr. Clinton's strategists will concentrate in 1988 declined more than 2% from 1984. their attacks on Mr. Bush rather than Mr. But that doesn't mean more people dent Bush among registered voters, Perot so as not to alienate the Perot won't vote this year; they will because of supporters. the growth in the voting-age population. with Mr. Perot at Mr. Perot clearly was hurt by the And in some places, registration figures 15%. Among those who vote regularly, fallout from his Monday news conference, are up sharply. Mr. Clinton's lead where he assailed the press, offered no Registration in Oregon, for example, is drops to six points, proof of his allegations of "dirty tricks" up about 16% from four years ago, to 1.8 by the Bush campaign and acknowledged million from 1.5 million. Voting experts 43% to 37%, with 13% that he recorded telephone conversations at the Democratic National Committee for the Texas bil- lionaire. himself. On Tuesday, the first day after the point to surging registration in several big cities, such as Detroit, Chicago and Phila- The poll was session, Mr. Perot's support was at 17%. By conducted Tuesday the next day, it had fallen to 13%. The delphia. Most of that work has been done and Wednesday, Journal and NBC reached the 15% figure in by the nonpartisan Project Vote, a voter- with the only signif- the head-to-head race by averaging the participation organization based in Wash- Ross Perot results from Tuesday's and Wednesday's ington, D.C. Its director, Sandy Newman, icant change be- tween the two days being the decrease in samples. says his group has helped to register the strength of Mr. Perot, the independent Though Mr. Clinton remains in a strong 150,000 new voters, almost all of them position as the campaign narrows, Messrs. black, in Pennsylvania; 110,000 in Chi- candidate. Though Mr. Perot's share of the elector- Hart and Breglio say the survey does cago; 70,000 in Michigan; 40,000 in Ohio; ate is declining, his impact on the struggle suggest a plausible "scenario for victory" and 160,000 (with the help of the New York for the White House may still be substan- for Mr. Bush. He leads in the South for the Public Interest Research Group) in New tial because the waning days of the race York City. first time since June and among white With the exception of New York, where are, at least in part, a campaign for Southerners who are regular voters, the voters who once found allure in Mr. Mr. Clinton holds a big lead, these are all lead swells to more than 20 points. And battleground states, and most of these Perot. while Mr. Clinton has been ahead among voters will cast their ballots for Mr. Right now President Bush is benefiting all white voters. the race now is a dead Clinton. most from Mr. Perot's descent. The presi- heat, with Mr. Bush ahead among those Curtis Gans, director of the Committee dent has made gains with Republicans and who vote regularly. Among all regular with independents, among whom Mr. Bush for the Study of the American Electorate, voters, the race for the male vote, custom- predicts a turnout Nov. 3 of 51% to 55% of has climbed from third place into first, arily a component of the GOP presidential taking 32% as opposed to Mr. Clinton's 30%. the eligible voters. The 55% figure would be coalition, is also almost even. But voters who now are only loosely com- a major breakthrough, reaching levels last But the pollsters say that Mr. Bush mitted to Mr. Perot favor Mr. Clinton as achieved in 1972. Four years ago, 50.2% of needs to succeed, among Midwestern those eligible to vote did SO. Of those their second choice over Mr. Bush, 53% to voters, where Mr. Clinton still leads, and 40%, suggesting a possible advantage to registered to vote, 78% went to the polls. among white Catholics, where Mr. Clinton With no breakthrough in the rate of the Democrat if Mr. Perot's support erodes still has a scant lead. those registering to vote, the likely way to further. For Mr. Clinton to win, he needs a solid Democrat Peter Hart and Republican achieve a significant increase in the turnout among voters under age 35, where percentage of those who take the time to Vince Breglio, the pollsters who conducted he holds a substantial lead of 47% to 27%. the survey for the Journal and NBC, say vote is by pulling a larger share of Mr. Clinton leads among all women by 14 that "the momentum of the trial heat registered voters to the polls. "The poten- pointsand by 20 points among women tial for that happening is there," says Mr. favors George Bush." under age 40. But they note that "in the end, elections Breglio. For all the candidates, as well as the always come back to the fundamentals." pollsters trying to figure out what is going And they say that "the fundamentals of on, the problem is trying to determine How Poll Was Conducted this election favor Bill Clinton." who's going to vote and who isn't. The Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll was based on Mr. Clinton himself, in an interview, The Journal/NBC poll isolates what it nationwide telephone interviews of 1,507 registered voters said that "I'm not all that distressed to see conducted Tuesday and Wednesday by the polling organi- calls "regular voters," people who say zations of Peter Hart and Vince Breglio. a tightening of the polls.' But, he added, "I they have voted in half or more elections in The sample was drawn from 315 randomly selected geographic points in the continental U.S. Each region was need a big turnout," especially> among the past three year by using this regist in association its DOCUMENT House young voters. were selected by a method that gave all telephone num- the Journal/NBC pollsters in their latest bers, listed and unlisted. an equal chance of being In reporting the Journal/NBC survey, survey eliminated 23% of the people they included. One registered voter, 18 years or older, was selected pollsters Hart and Breglio emphasize that sampled. from each household 3 rocedure to provide the correct it may be misleading to focus solely on So who: in this process, is being elimi- number of male and female respondents. The results of the survey were minimally weighted by race and party for the people who vote regularly. because this nated? Most notably, those between the Tuesday data. and by age, sex and party for the Wednes- election could also draw many people day data to assure that the poll accurately reflects ages of 18 and 30. They make up 12% of the registered voters nationwide. Data for both nights were who vote less frequently. For that reason, screened "regular voter" sample. but four then merged. retaining their Individual weights. Chances are 19 of 20 that if all registered voters with the Journal is reporting the results among years ago they represented 20% of the telephones in the U.S. had been surveyed, the findings both registered voters and regular voters, turnout, and many experts think that would differ from these poll results by no more than 2.5 percentage points in either direction. The margin for a which under the poll's definition elimi- abysmally low figure will show some im- subgroup would depend on the size of that group. nates anyone who hasn't voted in half the The group identified as people who vote regularly is provement Tuesday. made up of 1,158 people who say they vote inhalf or more of elections in the past three years. all elections. The margin of error for this group is 2.9 percentage points. THE WALL JOUITIAL 1992 Dow Jones a Company, Inc. AU Rights Reserved FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30, 1992 Voters Can Bet on Bush's Familiarity, Gamble On Clinton's Course or Plunge In With Perot By GERALD F. SEIB And ALAN MURRAY But the real challenge for the next Clinton to pledge to renegotiate the North Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL president will be addressing longer-term America Free Trade Agreement and he WASHINGTON - Voters going to the economic problems. Since 1973, the produc- resisted them. But there would be a con- polls Tuesday will choose among the tivity of American workers has grown at stant struggle between Mr. Clinton's known. the unknown and the unfathom- only a third of the pace of the 1950s avowed free-trade views and forces that, able. and 1960s and their average earnings have among other things. want to compel Japan After four years in office, George Bush been stagnant. It's that poor performance to end its trade surplus with the U.S. or is a familiar figure to most Americans. that has led many people to question face automatic retaliation. Despite his conservative campaign rheto- whether the steady rise in living standards A President Clinton would also have to ric, he is a moderate. He instinctively that characterized the first four decades face up to lawmakers from his own party rejects claims from opposite sides of the after World War II is going to continue. who want to either raid the defense budget, ideological spectrum that government is Gov. Clinton has proposals to take on or use it to finance unneeded but politically either the cause of, or the solution to, most that task by increasing government spend- popular weapons programs. Many Demo- of the nation's problems. ing on education, training, public in- crats want to cut defense spending much If re-elected, he can be expected to frastructure and research. Getting a Dem- deeper than does Mr. Clinton. At the same labor more on domestic policy than he did ocratic Congress to boost spending in those time, Mr. Clinton also would have to stand in his first term, but areas won't be difficult. But for the pro- up to lawmakers in his own party who see a will still face an en- CAMPAIGN gram to succeed, a President Clinton Democratic president as their best chance ormous challenge also would have to demonstrate he has to keep the money flowing for pet weapon dealing with an um- the spine to stand up to some powerful systems that might no longer be militarily friendly and some- 92 forces that have the potential to destroy his necessary but represent thousands of times disrespectful program. Whether or not he can resist jobs. Congress. He offers them may well determine the success or But if Mr. Clinton succeeded in taming a steady hand on Defining failure of his presidency. these special interests and outstanding foreign policy, and If elected, Mr. Clinton's first test will problems, he might be in a position to stake would see to it that Differences come within days of his inauguration. Will out a bold new path. One huge advantage changes he has he propose a tough, credible, multiyear he would enjoy is the fact that Congress helped unleash on deficit reduction plan as part of the initial itself will be smarting from voters who the world stage would proceed at a mea- economic stimulus package he intends to have spent the year complaining about sured pace. propose? Or will he offer the goodies first, Washington gridlock and warning politi- A vote for Bill Clinton, on the other and merely promise to do deficit reduction cians of every stripe that business as usual hand, is a gamble. As the first Democratic later? won't be tolerated any longer. That may president in 12 years - and the first Baby Gov. Clinton's campaign proposals leave the Congress chastened and more Boom president and the first one elected don't come close to addressing the deficit eager than usual to act in concert with a after the end of the Cold War - he would in a satisfactory Democratic president, a situation Mr. have a rare-opportunity to define a new way and many of Clinton could turn to his benefit. course for the nation, much as Ronald the academic econo- mists who advise Bush Seeks Safe Bets Reagan did in 1981, Lyndon Johnson did in 1965, and Franklin Roosevelt did in 1933. him say deficit 're- President Bush is bargaining, of But if he succumbs to his tendency to want duction can be put course, that Americans will conclude that to please all, he could be pushed by off until future the kind of predictable, incremental powerful and competing special interest years. But budget change he offers is a safer bet in the new groups into a congressional muddle that experts in Washing- world that he has helped create in the would leave the nation worse off than ton say a President last four years. before he started. Clinton would only Mr. Bush would try to revive the econ- "The most successful leaders have have sufficient clout omy by fighting for increased tax incen- dealt with Congress by bullying them, by to wrestle with this tives for private investment, a cut in the essentially going over their heads to the thorny problem in capital gains tax and, perhaps, an across- American people, getting solid support for the early days of his the-board income tax cut. He pledges re- George Bush their proposals, and then presenting them presidency. newed war on government regulations. to Congress," says Allan J. Lichtman, a "The most effective economic program professor of history at American Univer- would be to imbed a short-run economic And to stimulate the economy in the short sity here. "If you try to coddle them, get stimulus package in a legislated, long-run run, he promises not a Democrat-style jobs into the back room with them, then your deficit reduction plan," says the Brookings bill, but rather more rapid expenditure of Institution economist, and former Carter his already-enacted plan to spend billions programs will be nibbled away. and you'll administration official, Charles Schultze. on transportation construction. fall into the morass." Economists agree that some wise public Mr. Bush promises neither the all-out Meanwhile. a vote for independent can- investments could help address both the assault on the deficit that Mr. Perot advo- didate Ross Perot is a leap into the dark. economy's short-term and its long-term cates, nor the more laid-back deficit-cut- Mr. Perot talks like the ultimate pragma- problems. But in order to keep his program ting approach of Mr. Clinton, but rather a tist, without ideology. But events of the last few weeks have raised questions about from turning into just another congres- continuing chipping away at the spending imbalance. whether he has the temperament to hold sional porkbarrel, Mr. Clinton would have the nation's highest office. More than that, 0 stand up to some powerful legislative And, as much as anything else, Mr. interests - most notably Sen. Robert C. Bush bases his vision for domestic and he would have to try to enact a politically unpalatable deficit-reduction plan without Byrd of West Virginia, who has delivered a foreign policy in the next four years on a a single member of his own party in spree of free-trade agreements in Eu- cornucopia of federal projects to his home Congress," says William Leuchtenburg, a rope, Asia and Latin America to match state. residential scholar his North America Free Trade Agree- who-- North Carolina. "That is unparalleled in ment: Tr is exports mail have saved us is also from West Virginia, says the key to his country or any other country." in this global slowdown. global recession, preventing Mr. Clinton's infrastructure and it is exports that are going to lead the Challenges Await Winner program from turning into pure political way out of this with jobs for American Whoever is elected will face great un- pork is for the president to show toughness manufacturers and American services." ertainty on the world stage, most notably and discipline - qualities he sees in Mr. Mr. Bush said in the campaign's final he prospect of unrest during the coming Clinton. days. politically turbulent winter in Russia. At Wanted: Tough Leader the same time, the next president is "It's the absence of toughness and likely to preside over a better economy discipline which has allowed what has han that which has saddled President been for us in West Virginia, thanks to Bush for the past four years. Low inflation, Robert C. Byrd, a very creative process," ow interest rates, corporate streamlining he says. and reductions in consumer and business Another hurdle for Mr. Clinton would debt burdens have left the economy primed be Rep. Richard Gephardt and other trade or a recovery some time in the next couple hawks in Congress. They wanted Mr. of years. WALL VITIETTI © 1992 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. AU Rights Reserved. Mr. Bush's biggest problem in a second term undoubtedly would be a continuation FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30, 1992 of the biggest prob- lem he faced in his first term: a hostile Clinton Campaign Coffers Are Getting Congress controlled by Democrats. In fact, the problem Strong Support From Gay Community might well be worse in a second term, By JILL ABRAMSON because Mr. Bush Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL would be a lame WASHINGTON - The gay community Gay Giving duck president seen has emerged as one of Bill Clinton's most as an even easier important cash constituencies. Major gay and lesbian political groups that target for the oppo- raise money or contribute to candidates Gay activists say the Clinton-Gore sition. "It's pretty through political action committees: ticket and the Democratic Party have clear that Congress received more than $2 million from gay The Human Rights National Bill Clinton has taken a special contributors. There's no way to document Campaign Fund delight in antagonizing President Bush the contributions because federal election The Log Cabin Federation National and that would be true even more in a data doesn't include sexual preference. second term," says former Rep. Bill Fren- The Empire State New York Interviews with gay activists across the zel of the Brookings Institution. Pride Agenda country disclose an unprecedented out- Mr. Perot, if elected, would come in pouring of financial support to Mr. Clinton. Impact Illinois with the clearest commitment to reducing "There's never been anything like this," Access Now for Gay California the budget deficit through higher taxes says David Mixner, a senior Clinton ad- and Lesbian Equality and spending cuts. But whether he could viser and member of Access Now for get Congress to go along with his politically Gay and Lesbian Equality, a Southern painful plan is far less clear. And even if he California group that includes big do- somehow succeeded in getting lawmakers "The Republican convention was a nors. The group, known as Angle, pumped to enact his plan, the net result could well five-day reminder that you aren't welcome about $500,000 into Michael Dukakis's cam- be a rapid contraction of the economy- and you don't belong here," says Steve paign in 1988, but will probably raise more which then would antagonize lawmakers Smith, a Californian who was the Demo- than $1 million for the Clinton-Gore ticket. eager to escape blame for that outcome. cratic National Committee's first openly Four years ago, according to Mr. Mixner The one thing an election of Mr. Perot gay committemman from 1980 to 1988. and other gay organizers, George Bush would do is send the most unmistakable received support, with votes and or money, But financial support for Mr. Clinton signal in the history of American politics from about 33% to 40% of the gay commu- was building in the gay community even that there must be an overhaul in the way before the convention in Houston. In Feb- nity. government is run, not mere tinkering Mr. Clinton has been the beneficiary of ruary, Angle co-chaired a fund-raising around the edges. But on the world stage, heightened political awareness and activ- dinner for Mr. Clinton at the Regent the combination of the uncertainty and Mr. ism among gays, who have been politicized Beverly Wilshire Hotel in Los Angeles with Perot's rhetoric of economic nationalism by the AIDS crisis and angered by anti-gay a number of other prominent Californians, would shake up friends and foes alike. All rhetoric of the religious right. In Jersey including lawyer Warren Christopher and in all, ventures Mr. Leuchtenburg, "I think it would probably be close to chaotic." City, N.J., last night, the Democratic nom- several entertainment-industry execu- inee called AIDS "one of the most funda- tives. Among the dinner sponsors printed mental questions facing our people in the on the invitation were a number of gay health care area," and vowed a "war on couples. AIDS." He pledged to put a single official "From the very beginning, financial in charge of that effort, to step up educa- support from the gay community has been tional efforts about the disease, to speed up instrumental," says Clinton campaign fi- approval of AIDS drugs and to increase nance director Rahm Emanuel. Taking federal funding sharply for AIDS re- his lead from Mr. Clinton, Mr. Emanuel search, prevention and treatment. says the campaign made sure that gays Over the past decade, gays have formed were included as full participants in Mr. their own federal and state-level political Clinton's fund-raising team. Besides Mr. action committees, and they are leaning Mixner, Randy Klose, the late former heavily Democratic this year. director of the Human Rights Campaign The Human Rights Campaign Fund, Fund, was a member of Mr. Clinton's the largest gay and lesbian political organ- national finance committee. "They have ization in the nation, has increased its sat at the table as full participants," membership from less than 20,000 a few Mr. Emanuel says. years ago to more than 60,000 today. It In May, Mr. Clinton appeared before expects to double its contributions to sym- the national media at a Hollywood night- pathetic candidates, to more than $1 mil- club for a fund-raising event organized by lion this year from $500,000 in 1990, accord- gay activists that raised more than $100,- ing to spokesman Gregory King. The fund 000 for his campaign - the largest event AIDS activists, has been critical of Mr. has sent 21 staffers into the field to organ- ever held in the gay community for a Clinton; during the New York primary ize get-out-the-vote drives for Mr. Clinton presidential candidate. campaign, he got into a shouting match in such key states as California, Michigan with an one member. ACT-UP has criti- and Illinois. Contributions to the Democratic Party cized the Arkansas governor for not over- Just as last fall's Clarence Thomas- have been enhanced by money donated or turning a state anti-sodomy law and for Anita Hill hearings on sexual harassment raised by entertainment industry execu- insufficient state spending to combat provoked an avalanche of political dona- tives who have been active in the move- AIDS. tions from angry women to women politi- ment to combat AIDS, such as Barry cal candidates, the Republican convention Diller and David Geffen. But any criticism of Mr. Clinton pales next to the antagonism in the gay commu- sparked its own firestorm in the gay "This election is like our national com- nity towards President Bush. "Gay Repub- community. Anti-gay speeches by conser- ing-out as a political force," says Mr. King licans have not been writing checks to vative commentator Patrick Buchanan of the Human Rights Campaign Fund. Tim Republicans." says Rich Tafel. president and religious broadcaster Pat Robertson McFeeley, the group's executive director, of the Log Cabin Federation. the largest prompted gays around the nation to open reports that this month members have gay GOP organization. which also has its their checkbooks. been hosting house parties for the Clinton own political action committee. He agrees "Support crystallized overnight with campaign around the country. Although he that the GOP convention generated a "neg- Pat Buchanan's speech.' says Mr. Mixner. doesn't have precise numbers, he says the ative ripple effect." "It created a voting bloc and tripled the sums raised have been considerable. money. ACT-UP. an organization of militant INL WALL OTHELT JOUIUAI © 1992 Dow Jones @ Company, Inc. AU Rights Reserved FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 Last Minute Look at Clinton's Taxes By ALVIN RABUSHKA from them. The tax on those profits bears statutory rates. Ironically, the 1986 act was Gov. Bill Clinton says the rich do not the standard corporate charge of 34%. The passed because SO many people deemed pay their "fair" share of taxes. But a close remaining (post-tax) 66% of income finds that pre-1986 system "unfair." look at Mr. Clinton's economic program its way into "rich" Americans' bank ac- The chain is a dangerous one. High reveals a daunting picture of what a Clin- counts. In the case of dividends they rates beget loopholes. which beget eco- ton presidency could mean. His tax plan receive, they will pay 38% of that 66%. That nomic distortions, tax shelters, rising tax goes far beyond the 38% rate that is amounts to an additional tax of 25% on the expenditures and the rebirth of a great sometimes associated with it, and beyond same stream of income. So the effective evil, financial planning. When, in a mo- the additional 10% millionaire surtax. In marginal rate for anyone who participates ment of ironic inevitability, the number fact. when you take into account the real in the growth of the U.S. economy and does crunchers discover that the rich pay a tax rate on the businesses that provide our so successfully as a shareholder (has made lower share of total income tax than before livelihoods, the Clinton program turns out it to the top bracket) is 59% (34% corporate the Clinton tax hike, the "fairness" advo- to advocate a top marginal rate of 60% or tax + [38% individual rate times 66% cates will clamor for still higher rates. higher. after-tax income)). That is higher than If the bond market's behavior in past How do we come to such pre-1986 num- current law, which by this arithmetic gives weeks is any indication, the inflation re- bers? On the surface, Gov. Clinton's plan us a current top marginal rate of 54.5%. It sulting from Mr. Clinton's spending pro- appears reasonable. To improve "fair- contrasts more sharply with the 1986 Tax posals would have the effect of unlegis- ness" he has proposed a tax increase on Act, which yielded a top marginal rate of lated tax increases. In that scenario, U.S. the rich. Mr. Clinton has not settled on a 52.5%. taxpayers will meet an old friend: bracket precise top marginal rate, but Treasury Now let's look at what Mr. Clinton has creep. To help Mr. Clinton out, some estimates based on Clinton revenue num- planned for millionaires. Through his in- enterprising congressman will figure out bers put that rate at 38% for the top 2% of vestments, a millionaire can pay the stan- the ultimate way to truly soak the tax- taxpayers. Still reasonable in the view of dard corporate rate of 34%. But he pays a payer: repeal indexing and encourage the some. When you add in the millionaire higher top marginal income-tax rate of Federal Reserve to inflate. Welcome to surcharge, the rate rises to 41.8% (38% + 41.8% on his dividends. The combined Carter Era II. (38% X 10%) = 41.8%). double tax is 61.6%. This combined high But the rate is really even higher. rate on investment income will surely Suppose President Clinton is elected deter new investment of the kind that is the Mr. Rabushka, a fellow at the Hoover and enacts his new "fair" tax on the rich. key plank of the Clinton program. And that Institution, is co-author with Robert E. Hall Assume he raises the top marginal rate on doesn't even include state income tax rates of "The Flat Tax" (Hoover Press, 1985). the top 2% of earners to 38% from 31%, and as high as 11% (California). on millionaires to 41.8%. Although none of Now let's look at capital gains. Mr. Mr. Clinton's top advisers - not Robert Clinton has not said much about changing Reich, not Ira Magaziner, and not Robert that rate. But the effective tax rate on Shapiro - has mentioned this, this pro- capital gains depends on inflation - and gram takes a giant step backward from the how long people hold onto assets. The simplification of our 1986 tax law. The important point is that the two new higher program would give the U.S. an income tax brackets on personal income have the system of five brackets: 15%, 28%, 31%, effect of increasing the taxes on hardwork- 38%, 41.8%. ing. successful people, even if Mr. Clinton But these, of course, are not the real doesn't touch the current "28% top rate." rates. That's because taxpayers who re- We have to remember too that such ceive business income don't merely pay high rates are how we got into our pre-1986 taxes once. They pay taxes twice, once tax predicament in the first place. The when the businesses they own or invest in inflationary years of 1965-80 pushed mid- pay a tax on profit (the corporate tax) and dle class taxpayers into progressively again on after-tax profits, which they re- higher brackets. Congress then enacted port as dividends or as capital gains on IRS numerous tax loopholes to offset the prob- forms. lem. But the result was hardly "fair" in the Let's take the new 38% bracket. Most Clinton sense: The rich and their tax of these people have businesses, or profit planners rarely paid taxes at those high Kecession Keinforcers Environmental groups suffered a natural carcinogens. A new article in major setback in 1990, when California Science magazine concludes that "the voters overwhelmingly defeated Big enormous amount of money spent try- Green, a sweeping back-to-nature ini- ing to prevent 'one-in-a-million' risks tiative that would have deepened that can be counterproductive and involve state's severe recession. Economically economic and health-related trade- oblivious environmentalists have now offs." The scientists call for policy moved their tent show to Ohio and makers to put hypothetical risks into Massachusetts. Voters there will con- some sort of perspective. sider two measures that could be Massachusetts has the other ma- straight out of Al Gore's book of envi- jor environmental monkey wrench on ronmental apocalypse. the ballot. It would require packaging The more controversial is Ohio's Is- used inside the state to be reduced in sue 5, which would impose severe re- size, be reusable or be made of recy- porting and warning requirements on clable materials. Some 50,000 con- businesses that use any of 458 poten- sumer products ranging from Snickers tially hazardous chemicals. It's based bars to Cabbage Patch dolls would ei- 1980 Callfornia habeling law ther have to come in special packages pushed by Hollywood celebrities. or not be sold at all in the state. Ohio's Issue 5 would be more costly. That would not only bollix up na- Playing on the public's understanda- tional brands but increase costs. The ble fear of cancer, it defines a "signifi- forced use of recyclables in Germany cant risk" to cancer as one excess case raised the prices of some products by per million people - a standard 10 10%. Governor William Weld, who times more stringent than California's backs the initiative, normally supports law. Issue 5 would require cancer la- free markets, but seems to flake out bels for thousands of products. Busi- when an issue comes cloaked in envi- nesses would have to notify everyone ronmental pieties. living near a site with any of the chem- Economically pressed Californians icals present. have apparently stopped believing en- The Ohio initiative is almost anti- vironmentalism's current sermons of science in its ignorance of what sci- doom. The show of hands in Ohio and ence now knows about carcinogens. Massachusetts will determine Tap water, bread, bacon, cola and whether the crusade has legs or is fi- mushrooms all contain low levels of nally running out of steam. THE WALL © 1992 Dow Jones @ Company, Inc. AU Rights Reserved FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30. 1992 President's Exit in a Scandal Fails To Shake Backers of 'Safe' Ito- Yokado By YUMIKO ONO daily goods. It also operates 57 7-Elevens in And QUENTIN HARDY Hawaii and is best known outside Japan Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL for it 62.3% stake in Dallas-based South- TOKYO - The news normally would land. It acquired the position in Southland, have slammed a company's stock: The which then had about 7,000 7-Eleven stores company president resigns in shame after in the U.S., in 1990. other excutives are charged with paying The company has remained conserva- extortion money to racketeers. tive throughout, moving cautiously while But when Ito-Yokado Co., Japan's big- the competition raced to expand and gar- gest convenience-store chain and majority ner more sales. Ito-Yokado has focused on owner of Southland Corp. of the U.S., said increasing inventory turnover and quickly Thursday that its president was quitting, jettisoning products, such as certain sport- the company's stock closed up on the day. ing goods and electronics, that don't sell The shares hit 3,680 yen ($29.87), a gain of well. Its point-of-sales system, which uses 40 yen. computers to determine what's selling and Why? Of all major listings on the Tokyo what isn't, "is the best in the industry," Stock Exchange, this is one of the few that says Ms. Melendez. analysts of Japan's battered market are touting - albeit with reservations, and the When customers walk into a Japanese mob notwithstanding. 7-Eleven store, everything they purchase "It's a squeaky-clean company," says is noted for later marketing research. Victoria Melendez, an analyst for Jardine Cashiers record the sex, estimated age and Fleming Securities Ltd. in Tokyo. "Their time of arrival of the customers, so they balance sheets are easy to read, they're can calculate how many box lunches and sitting on mountains of cash and they rice balls will be needed at any time of the never spend beyond their means." day. Recently, the chain even attached a In fact, a recent survey of 700 Japanese screen to the cash register, SO the cus- companies by rating concern Morningstar tomers can see on display a list of the Inc. placed Ito-Yokado's stock - which is products they just purchased. The com- traded as American depositary receipts in pany has also cut by 90% the time it takes to New York - near the top of the list for ring up a customer's purchase. return on investment (an average 21.86% The recession has helped Ito-Yokado: over 10 years) and for low risk of underper- Some consumers are forswearing the food forming in a bear market. departments of expensive stores, with "It's a safe stock, very defensive," says their fresh salmon eggs and fancy tem- Brian Tobin, of S.G. Warburg Securities pura, and instead grabbing a cheaper (Japan) Inc. With Japan in recession, and sushi box and iced tea at 7-Eleven. Still, consumers watching price, "Everyone's profits are down throughout the industry, going to shop there.' and Ito-Yokado is no exception. In the half year ended Aug. 31, its consoli- Alleged Payoffs dated pretax profit dropped 12% to 97.28 To shop, and in some cases extort, billion yen, while consolidated revenue apparently. Ito-Yokado's latest troubles rose 11% to 1.523 trillion yen. Net income stem from alleged payoffs the company decreased 19% to 32.38 billion yen. made to insure that the racketeers Expected Results wouldn't disrupt the company's annual meetings; three executives were arrested. For the year ending Feb. 28, 1993, If the charges are true, this isn't the first Ito-Yokado expects pretax profit to drop time a Japanese company has succumbed 3.7% to 196 billion yen, revenue to rise 3.7% to such pressure. The practice is illegal, to 3.03 trillion yen and net income to but the Japanese mob has threatened to decline 8.4% to 67.4 billion yen. disrupt other annual meetings in the past A spokesman says Southland is chiefly to get worried companies to pay up. to blame for the drop in corporate profit. Ito-Yokado hasn't expressly acknowl- Indeed, bolstering ailing Southland, and edged it did anything. But President Masa- retiring more of its debt, will be the chief toshi Ito, the company's 68-year-old mission of Mr. Suzuki, Ito-Yokado's new founder, resigned Thursday and apolo- president. Mike Allen, senior analyst at gized for the controversy. His succes- Barclays de Zoete Wedd Securities Ltd., sor, Toshifumi Suzuki, the company's vice says Southland had a loss of $389 million in president and Mr. Ito's right-hand man, 1990 and $54 million in 1991, and will post a wouldn't comment on the scandal. Mr. loss of about $47 million this year. Still, he Suzuki. 59, did note that he would continue says, Southland has been closing unprofit- the company's policy of concentrating on able stores and "next year they stand to profit rather than on boosting sales. make a profit for the first time in many, Indeed, it's this long-standing orienta- many years." tion toward profit-until recently a novelty Mr. Suzuki said he was "furthering his in market-share-bungry Japan - that has confidence" in his outlook for Southland. made Ito-Yokado an industry leader. In We're now in the process of getting rid Japan. the company operates nearly 4.840 of the poison" in the system. he says. 7-Eleven stores and 142 general merchan- "We'll finish doing that this year. Next dising stores, which sell food. clothes and year. we re aiming for a pretax profit." WALL 1992 Dow Jones 8 Company, Inc. AU Rights Reserved. FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30. 1992 Bush Too Requires Leap of Faith He hasn't yet put Dick Darman out of our misery: a re-elected president. feeling vindicated, might even promote him. Mr. In Voting Booth Bush also says he wants to make Washing- Washington Wire ton a "bicker-free zone," which sounds like there would be more tax summits with Dan President Bush's pollster, Fred Rostenkowski. Has George Mitchell also A Special Weekly Report From Steeper, asked voters a few weeks ago to choose between the George Bush and Bill promised not to bicker? Thomas Scully, a The Wall Street Journal's Darman protege and White House health- Clinton economic plans. The Bush plan lost care aide. didn't inspire confidence when Capital Bureau by 10 points. he said on National Public Radio earlier Some time later Mr. Steeper tried the this year that campaign proposals are one STRETCH RUN: Bush and Clinton plot same thing with one crucial difference. He left out the names of the candidates. The thing but governing is another. Read his their last dashes. Bush ideas won going away on every issue lips? Clinton says he will "play offense" and Mr. Clinton has run the better cam- focus almost exclusively on the economy. He except one (taxing the rich). "When you tell voters it's the Bush plan," says one paign, which is at least a sign of compe- hits Georgia and Florida, then focuses on the tence. He has echoed the Ronald Reagan of battleground states of New Jersey, Pennsyl- White House aide, "the numbers fall." 1980 in stressing growth and opportunity, vania, Ohio, Michigan and Missouri. Clinton Those voters know just how I feel. I also even if his proposed means are suspect. says he will also go to Texas, at the urging of prefer most of the Bush platform to Gov. But a president comes with a party, and Sen. Bentsen, to campaign in the heavily Clinton's. I only wish I believed Mr. Bush Mr. Clinton would come with the congres- Hispanic Rio Grande Valley. really preferred it, too. Pox-on-both-houses voters have always struck me as cop-outs; sional Democrats, unreformed and fes- Bush, with a razor-thin margin for error, this year I've got the pox myself. (Ross tooned with special seeks to assemble an unlikely electoral Perot's flight on wings of ego is too flaky.) interests. For every majority. Though his Southern and Rocky The hollowness at the core of the Bush David Osborne who Mountain base still isn't nailed down, he'll wants to reinvent presidency is what has made this election head for industrial states like Wisconsin, so vexing. government, Demo- New Jersey, Connecticut, Michigan and crats have a (law- Ohio. He may also target Georgia and yer activist) Harold Potomac Watch Missouri, where Perot still crimps his pros- Ickes who wants to pects for victory. expand it. For every While attacking Clinton, Bush will By Paul A. Gigot Sen. Sam Nunn who step up references to his second-term voted to confirm plans and reach once more for "the vision Clarence Thomas, thing. Clinton will stress his "different there is a Ricki "Our people don't have agendas. They kind of Democrat" theme. Seidman (Ted Ken- have mortgages," a senior Bush aide told nedy staffer turned the Washington Post on Jan. 19, 1989- Clinton aide) who George Bush TUESDAY'S WINNER will face a slug- thereby setting the tone for four years of tormented him. A Clinton victory also gish economy, despite the GDP jump. mortgaging principle. Like Taft and Van cedes the judiciary, which he will use to Economists predict fourth-quarter Buren, two other successors to two-term buy peace with his party's left; the Ameri- growth will be worse than the 2.7% third- presidents, Mr. Bush is a man of the can proliferation of "rights" and litigious- quarter figure and see only a modest pickup establishment who misunderstood his coa- in the first half of 1993 - even if the Fed cuts ness will continue. lition's populist roots. With a few notable If Mr. Bush does rally to win, a latent interest rates again. The most optimistic see exceptions (trade, judicial appointments, voter fear of Democratic control of all little chance that the jobless rate will fall education), Mr. Bush has ceded the domes- three federal branches will be a large below 7% before mid-1993. Caterpillar Inc. tic political field to his opponents. reason. With the world moving toward less says the economy has "lost momentum." On the paramount issue of economic intrusive government. Americans may National Association of Manufacturers growth, the sin isn't the relatively mild flinch before turning to a party it knows board members oppose a short-term sti- recession. It's Mr. Bush's refusal to defend will deliver more. A defeat to someone as mulus package by 4 to 1. But Kurt Karl of and fight for the policies that produced the weak as George Bush may even be the WEFA Group says that "if all the numbers seven-year Reagan boom and secured his shock therapy Democrats need- to tame are really weak, we'd expect even Bush to own 1988 victory. Mr. Bush attacks the their worst excesses. come up with some kind of stimulus." And media, with some justification, for eco- In the Nixon-to-China sense that only a Clinton aides say that, if elected, he'd begin nomic "gloom and doom," but his own Democrat can reform government, maybe work right away on a deficit-neutral plan to silence created the vacuum his critics have a President Clinton could tame them. But spur public and private investment. A sure filled. This timidity goes beyond what my doing SO would require more than rebuking bet: an investment-tax credit. editorial-page colleagues call weak "gen- Sister Souljah; it would mean staring down eralship"; it speaks to the heart of his the groups that destroyed Jimmy Carter. TIED HANDS? Bush and Clinton are public character. This is where the doubts about Mr. both boxed in by campaign promises. Mr. Bush's miserable campaign is the Clinton's character apply. His soft person- Clinton will be pressured to move on such ality, his desire to please and be liked, expensive items as middle-class tax relief apotheosis of his too personal presidency. He speaks in slogans - "Ozone Man," make it unlikely he'll resist the pent-up and health care. His pledge to negotiate "nutty pollsters" - that are epithets, not demands of his own coalition. Mr. Bush side deals to the Mexican trade pact will arguments. He has had as many themes as was reluctant to use Gennifer Flowers slow down its implementation. He is com- speeches, perhaps because for him cam- during this campaign; Mr. Clinton's party mitted to finishing the B-2 bombers and paign themes are less ends to seek than "allies" won't hesitate to use something Seawolf submarines already under way, similar if they aren't appeased. and going ahead with the V-22 tilt-rotor means to keep power. This spring a promi- Mr. Bush is right to say that a vote for aircraft. nent Republican called a senior White Bill Clinton is a leap into the unknown, a But Bush also now finds himself commit- House official with alarm about the presi- dent's lack of purpose. "You don't under- triumph of hope over Carter experience. ted to the V-22, which he once tried to kill. stand." the official replied THIS IS all The agony for conservative non-parti- And after granting big export subsidies to about power. Such arrogance deserves sans - and the reason we'll be holding our farmers. he would have to take many of some modesty-inducing time in exile. noses in the voting booth - is that scis a them away if a global trade agreement is Mr. Bush is a genuinely decent man, vote for George Bush. reached cutting back on such aid. His politically inspired pledge to with real foreign accomplishments to his means he may have to credit. It's also true that a second term dump Darman, whether ne - and Dar- might be better. and Mr. Bush has finally man patron to or not. acquired an agenda he may even fight for. But how can we know? THE WALL 0110121 © 1992 Dow Jones B Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30. 1992 HOLDING THEIR OWN? Republicans say they sense a chance to embarrass Gore in his home state of Tennessee; Bush cam- paigns there today, and Quayle on Monday. But Democrats whisper that they have a shot in Quayle's Indiana, where polls show only a narrow GOP edge. REPUBLICANS HOLD a big cash edge for last-minute efforts. In its final. pre-elec- tion disclosure, the GOP reported an S18 million cash hoard, while the Democrats had $12 million; the Bush campaign had $23.7 million cash on hand, while the Clinton campaign had $14.5 million. But a top Clin- ton fund-raiser sa"s Clinton will be able to keep pace with Bush media buys in the critical states. BIG GIVER: Sam Bamieh, a California businessman and Iran-Contra figure with past Saudi connections, turns up on a Com- mon Cause list of top GOP soft-money contributors. Bamieh, who claimed to have had knowledge of CIA dealings with the Saudi government on behalf of Nicaraguan rebels in the mid-80s, has given $312,800 in the past two years. PLACING BETS? The Securities Indus- try Association names as president Marc Lackritz, who was a Rhodes scholar with Clinton. And the American Bankers Associa- tion's new president is William Brandon of Arkansas, who also has Clinton ties. WOMEN'S VOTES help fuel Democratic congressional campaigns. In the newest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, women favor Democrats over Republican House candidates by a 14 per:- centage point margin, compared with a nine-point Democratic edge among men. Among the more than half of women who work outside the home, the edge is even greater- 19 points. Meanwhile, the "Anita Hill Class" of new women lawmakers takes shape. In the Sen- ate, Maryland incumbent Mikulski and Cali- fornia's Feinstein are regarded as sure bets. California's Boxer and Illinois's Braun still cling to leads, while Murray in Washing- ton and Yeakel in Pennsylvania are in tight races. Women candidates are given good chances of ousting veteran House incum- bents Wilson of Texas and Crane of Illinois. But some female House incumbents are in trouble, including Democrat Oakar in Ohio and Republican Snowe in Maine. MINOR MEMOS: Bill Becker, the Ar- kansas AFL-CIO chief who last March called Clinton a "chameleon" who reneges on promises, now is quoted in the AFL-CIC newspaper as saying he "has the potential tc be one of our greatest presidents.' Bush begins tomorrow's train trip in little Bur- lington, Wis. - the home of the famous Liar's Club. Rep. Rostenkowski's opponent is formally listed on the ballot as Elias R. ("Non-Incumbent") Zenkich. RICH The 10st Clinton Says FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 He Opposes Schaefer USAir Deal Candidate Would Kill Expected to British Airways Pact Back Bush By Martha M. Hamilton Washington Post Staff Writer Governor Accepts Democratic presidential contender Bill Clinton has joined independent Invitation to Rally candidate Ross Perot in making a cam- paign issue out of the proposed alli- BILL CLINTON wants access to British market ance between USAir Group Inc. and By Richard Tapscott Washington Post Staff Writer British Airways PLC. nor visits Pittsburgh, USAir's largest Clinton said on the "Larry King base of operations, for a midday rally. ANNAPOLIS, Oct. 29-Mary- Live" show Wednesday night that if he The proposed deal between British land Gov. William Donald Schaefer, were president he would refuse to sign Airways and the sixth-largest U.S. car- a-Democrat, will travel to suburban off on the proposed $750 million deal rier would link USAir's schedule to the St. Louis on Friday to appear at a because, "we get no access to the Brit- schedule of British Airways to help in- rally with President Bush and is crease traffic on British Airways trans- expected to give his endorsement ish market if we do it." atlantic flights. In return, British Air- to the Republican incumbent. Yesterday, however, Transporta- ways would invest $750 million in Schaefer, who was mayor of Bal- tion Secretary Andrew H. Card said USAir, which has suffered hundreds of timore for 15 years before being that he planned to decide on the alli- millions in losses. The deal requires elected governor in 1986, has a ance sometime between the election approval by regulators on both sides of Jong and warm acquaintanceship and Dec. 24, the date either of the two the Atlantic, as well as stockholders. with the president and has fre- airlines could walk away from the deal. American Airlines Inc., United Air- quently spoken of him in flattering The issue is expected to come up lines Inc. and Delta Air Lines Inc. have terms. again today when the Arkansas gover- Until now, Schaefer has declined group. "Free trade is all-important for to endorse either Bush, who is trail- [President] Bush and he lets other ing in the state, according to a re- opposed the deal, saying that it would economic policies stand or fall on their cent poll, or Democratic nominee put other U.S. carriers at a competi- merits." Bill Clinton, saying in response to tive disadvantage, since their access to Britain and beyond is more limited U.S. and British negotiators ended questions simply, "I'm a Democrat." another round of talks yesterday on Schaefer spokeswoman Paige than British Airways'. Perot first raised the issue during proposed changes to the bilateral Boinest said this evening that agreement governing aviation be- Schaefer decided to make the ap- the last presidential debate, prompting an immediate response by Seth E. tween the two countries, which might pearance with Bush after receiving provide more U.S. airlines greater ac- a call today from Robert Teeter, Schofield, chairman of Arlington-based USAir. Yesterday, Schofield fired off a cess to British markets. The talks are chairman of the Bush campaign. similar letter to Clinton, taking issue scheduled to resume in Washington "He hasn't said anything SO far in with the Democrat's views. Nov. 9. However, the Bush adminis- the presidential election, and he felt tration has said its decision on the US- it was time to go with his con- "The USAir-British Airways alliance Air deal doesn't depend on the out- science," Boinest said. will preserve jobs in the U.S. airline in- come of those talks. She said the first contact be- dustry while it increases domestic competition, keeps fares low and in- One of the Clinton campaign's many tween the president's reelection creases pressure for strong customer policy study groups is an informal organization and Schaefer came service," Schofield wrote. Transportation Task Force, headed by today, and she was uncertain One issue Clinton has raised is the former Civil Aeronautics Board attor- whether Schaefer would campaign inequality in competition between Eu- ney William K. Ris Jr. Ris is a senior elsewhere for the Republican pres- vice president of a lobbying firm that ident. ropean aircraft manufacturing consor- tium Airbus Industrie, which receives has been retained by American Air- The St. Louis rally is scheduled lines, but a Clinton campaign staff said for 12:40 p.m. at Maryville College government subsidies, and U.S. air- Wil- craft manufacturers. Schofield pointed Clinton is soliciting advice from a large in St. Louis County, Schaefer will out-as he had in his letter to Perot- number of sources and that Ris has See SCHAEFER, D5, Col. 4 that USAir and British Airways oper- had no direct contact with Clinton on ate large numbers of U.S.-built Boeing the USAir-British Airways issue. Co. aircraft. Clinton hasn't precluded allowing Staff writer Peter Behr contributed such a deal if an agreement to this report. that would give U.S. carriers broader rights abroad, said a member of his campaign staff. The point of view that Clinton brings to the issue is one that is emerging in his discussions of many trade issues-that of reciprocity. "For Clinton, free trade is only good in conjunction with policies that pro- mote worker retraining and other eco- nomic aims," said Gary C. Hufbauer of the Institute for International Econom- ics, a Washington-based research CIJE 1005 Schaefer Expected to Back Bush FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 SCHAEFER, From DI without the support of the governo and we'll continue to be successf be introduced at the rally by Mis- without his support," Spalter said. 30-SECOND POLITICS souri Gov. John Ashcroft, a Repub- Clinton did not solicit Schaefer' lican. Schaefer's spokeswoman said support, Spalter said, "because Wi the Maryland governor plans to ad- didn't need it." dress the rally. Carol Arscott, spokeswoman for She said Schaefer will likely en- the Bush-Quayle committee in dorse the president at that time. Maryland, said a Schaefer endorse- "He obviously thinks an awful lot ment might help the president. Bush's ads are of the president, but he didn't get "The governor certainly has involved in it up till now," Boinest core of loyal supporters, and I hop misleading and wrong. said. they'll take his advice," Arsco "He's taking a day off to go out said. "In Maryland, no Republica and make this appearance. Obvious- can win statewide office withou ly, he feels strongly about it," Boi- Democratic support." nest said. State Senate President Thoma Schaefer has never been a Clin- CBS & CNN V. Mike Miller Jr. (D-Prine ton fan, although the two were ac- George's), a co-chairman of th quainted from meetings at the Na- Clinton-Gore campaign, calle tional Governors' Association. Schaefer's expected endorsemer The Democratic nominee launched concluded: "Frankly, we no longer Shortly before Maryland's presiden- of Bush "unfortunate" and "mis two new ads yesterday. The second trust George Bush." tial primary in March, Schaefer en- guided." one uses increasingly tight shots of Analysis: This counterattack ad, dorsed former Massachusetts sen- Miller noted that Clinton has th President Bush saying "you will be aired 24 hours after a Bush spot ator Paul E. Tsongas, who carried better off four years from now than endorsement of virtually all leadin assailed Clinton's record, uses pos- you are today" followed by negative Maryland in the primary. Democrats in Maryland, many ( itive statistics to try to neutralize economic statistics. The tag line: Bush apparently needs all the whom gave it long before the pr Bush's dark portrait of Arkansas. "How're you doing?" support he can get in Maryland, The figures are accurate but use mary. based on results of a poll conducted time periods most favorable to Miller said he presumes the Candidate: Bill Clinton Clinton. While Arkansas was No. 1 for WRC-TV (Channel 4). Schaefer's action is somehow cor Producer: Clinton-Gore Creative in job growth in the past year, it The poll showed Clinton leading nected to the governor's longstand Team lagged behind the national average Bush by 16 percentage points, 46 to ing feud with Baltimore Mayor Kur during Clinton's tenure. While 30, and gave independent Ross L. Schmoke. Time: 30 seconds Arkansas' crime rate dropped in Perot 16 percent in the state. Eight It was announced this week tha Audio: CBS and CNN and newspa- the first half of 1992, it increased percent of those polled were unde- Schmoke had been invited to Littl pers across the country call George faster than any other state during cided. Rock to be with Clinton on Electio Bush's ads misleading and-wrong. the past decade. And Clinton is re- The poll, conducted by Potomac Night. The fact is under Bill Clinton's quired by law to balance his bud- Survey Research, surveyed 600 Miller said he does not believ leadership, Arkansas leads the na- get. likely Maryland voters from Satur- that Schaefer will affect the out tion in job growth, has the second The ad uses newspaper and TV day through Monday and had a 4.1 come of Tuesday's voting in Mary lowest tax burden and the lowest reports, such as a Judy Mann col- percent margin of error. land, because Clinton holds a com government spending in the coun- umn in The Post, to buttress Jonathan Spalter, communica- fortable lead in the polls. try. And he's balanced 12 straight Clinton's claim that the Bush tions director for the Clinton-Gore However, he said an endorse budgets. They reduced infant mor- charges are misleading. One group campaign in Maryland, said he was ment might influence voters in oth tality and now have the highest that the Bush ad cites for support, er states where the race is close bu graduation rate in the region. And the Corporation for Enterprise not surprised by the expected en- dorsement by Schaefer. where voters "might not be awan in the past year Arkansas' crime Development, cried foul yesterday, record went down. No wonder The with its chairman calling Arkansas "We're surprised it took him this of the independent streak of ou Washington Post says George "a poor state" that "has made long," Spalter said. governor." Bush is lying about Bill Clinton's courageous and dramatic strides." Given Schaefer's slumping ap- Miller said Schaefer's actio: record. And why the Oregonian Howard Kurtz proval ratings, according to recent could hurt the state's credibility. Mason-Dixon Polls, Spalter said his "The governor has got to be told endorsement of Bush might help that he's being used as propaganda Clinton in Maryland. to undercut the very platform and "We've been doing successfully program he espouses," Miller said. CIJE 105 FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 JUDY MANN Standing by Their Man f Gov. Bill Clinton wins this election, it's going paid enough attention to the mobilizing of women at to be because of the votes of women, who have the state and local levels," she says. "There are been his strongest and most steadfast record numbers of women seeking state legislative constituency throughout the campaign. In this seats across the country and that automatically election, it's the men who have had trouble making energizes a turnout." This should favor the up their minds. Democrats because 10 times as many Democratic Whether it's the economy, education, health-care women are running for the U.S. Senate as are reform, reproductive choice-or just plain Republican women; twice as many Democratic change-Clinton has pounded away at issues that women are running for the House as are have resonated to the daily concerns of women Republican women, and about 40 percent more voters. Unlike 1988, this year's campaign has Democratic women are running for state delineated sharp differences between the legislatures than Republican women. candidates on matters that affect women and their Woods contrasts the reception women candidates families, and women have done what the suffragists are getting this year to past years, when they hoped.they would: They are transforming their usually started off 5 to 10 percentage points behind personal concerns into political action. simply because they were women. "Maybe the From mid-July on, most national polls have found greatest virtue of all the hype around 'the year of that more women than men support Clinton, and the political woman' is that it has reinforced they have viewed President Bush more harshly women's confidence in women. It's made women than men have. The latest Washington Post-ABC feel, The voters want me.' In the past, there's poll, concluded Monday, found that Clinton was been the discouragement factor. This year, for the supported by 50 percent of women and 39 percent first time, we've had the encouragement factor." of men. Thirty percent of women and 34 percent of Democratic pollster Celinda Lake says women men supported Bush, and 16 percent of women voters "have been very impressed that Clinton backed Perot compared with 22 percent of men. knew the price of bread, the price of gasoline, the "George Bush can no longer campaign as the price of jeans," when a woman asked him those kinder, gentler president," says Jane Danowitz, questions during a televised forum. "They assume director of the bipartisan Women's Campaign Fund. women candidates know these things. You're going "He has a record which has repeatedly been against to see women candidates get some last surges here women that hangs around his neck. He vetoed the and I think it's going to be very much related to Family and Medical Leave Act and he's consistently people wanting to elect people who are in touch vetoed legislation favoring abortion rights, and he's with their lives. It's such a stark contrast in their appointed judges and justices to the courts of our minds to Bush." country who've been consistently anti-choice. She says the Bush campaign understood the Clinton-Gore have been pro-jobs, pro-choice and importance of character to women but failed to pro-change and that's the message women are understand that "it's multifaceted. responding to. Finally, once and for all, we may be "There's personal trust and public trust. Women, voting in unison and more as a bloc than we ever in particular, distinguish between the two. They are had before. I think that's to our credit." looking for a leader who will keep his promises to Republican pollster Linda DiVall doesn't see it them. That is part of Clinton's strength. They sense a quite that way. While Clinton draws about half of the commitment that is very strong." By contrast, she women's vote, there's the other half that votes for says, Bush's "read my lips" promise not to raise taxes Bush or Perot. "My guess," she says, "is that under 5 "is seared on the American conscious." percent will say they switched and voted for Clinton So, in the end, if Clinton wins it will be because because of the abortion issue," although she says it more people voted for him than voted for Perot or was a crucial issue in motivating women to run. Bush. But in this most volatile of election years, it But Harriett Woods, head of the National was women voters who stayed with him and gave Women's Political Caucus, thinks another factor him security. And that is precisely what they are will work in Clinton's favor. "I think people have not yearning for, for themselves and their families. Stephen S. Rosenfeld Winners of the Cold War All right: It would be strange if George Bush policy is often overlooked-he opened up a negoti- "militarization" of American policy and especially our were not taking credit for winning the Cold War- ating window and, in Mikhail Gorbachev, eventually "unnecessarily belligerent and threatening tone"- the "we" who won it floating somewhere between found a Kremlin interlocutor who was ready to words that apply not just to Reagan but especially to Americans as a whole and the Reagan-Bush team in consider a respectable strategic withdrawal so as to Reagan-did not SO much hasten as delay this particular. The political advantage available to be turn to domestic repair. home-baked process of Soviet liberalization. drawn from the other international item none of this transpired H Wed, 100, functicans conducted military adven of the last four years-his conduct of the gulf there were not in the Soviet system, somewhere, a tures and hurled angry words. These surely had war-is being steadily squeezed by scrutiny of his disposition to change. You can call it a strength of their political impact on the other side, as Soviet Iraq policies before and after that conflict. To flesh the Russian character in that certain people pos- deeds and words had their impact on our side. In out his claims of foreign-policy prowess, the presi- sessed a capacity to see the light. I refer particular- some aspects the Cold War did indeed consist of dent badly needs the Cold War. It did end, after all, ly to Sakharov and Solzhenitsyn and the legion of the mutual misunderstandings, provocations and on his White House watch. lesser-known moral heroes. Or you can call it a political responses of the two superpowers. But that leaves open the role of American policy genuine weakness of the Soviet system itself: its But where did the trouble begin? With the Soviet and-to narrow it down-Reagan-Bush policy in internal inconsistencies, its inability to coax perfor- Communist Party forcibly taking away the liberty bringing about this happy result. The issue will mance and cooperation from people it abused and of many people. What remains notable about the engage historians for the next century or two. But intimidated, produced terminal deadlock. '80s is that once Gorbachev started dismantling meanwhile not just Bush's election prospects but Some-like George Kennan, writing in the New communism-stopped governing the Soviet empire the reputation and self-esteem of a generation of York Times of Oct. 28-discount the role of Ameri- and people by force-the Cold War was instantly participants in the political wars are on the line. can steadiness and pressure and give almost all the over. The American system, intact, reached out to This is what lends the debate its distinctive snap. credit to an internal Soviet dynamic. Kennan speaks the new Russia. The Soviet system dissolved. What The basic Reagan case is strong. Ronald Reagan with the authority of one who conceived the 40-year could be clearer evidence of where the source of turned up the heat in military spending and high Western policy of "containment." He meant that the the Cold War lay? tech, on regional battlefields and on the ideological West should hold the ring until internal pressures Why did this not happen until the '80s? Why did front. At the same time-this part of the Reagan mellowed the Kremlin. Now he believes that the it happen during the time of the most "militaristic" of American presidents? I suspect that the Soviet Union was on the edge, and Reagan pushed it over. Up until that point the Soviet economy and society suit underson al were sick but not sick enough, and threatened but not threatened enough by progress and pressure elsewhere, to bring systemic crisis to a climax. Just FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 at that moment-the right moment-Reagan came along to apply maverick conservative notions of the vulnerability of communism to change that he had had in his head for years. George Bush now piggybacks on Reagan's tri- umph. He is entitled to. But he shouldn't be misstat- ing the Reagan case. He stints the contribution made by Russians to unlocking their own destiny and dismisses the contribution made by Democrats to sustaining containment. All postwar presidents were aboard containment in one or another fashion. Initia- tives that Reagan harvested-in confronting Soviet missiles in Europe and Soviet invaders in Afghani- stan-Carter planted. A little generosity and truth- to the successors of Soviet communism and to the domestic opposition-will take next Tuesday's presi- dential victor a long way. Va. Democrats Hope to End Tradition Clinton-Gore Said to Offer Best Hope of Breaking GOP String By Donald P. Baker and Peter Baker states to carry Virginia," concurs "I just don't trust him," Cindy Washington Post Staff Writers University of Virginia government O'Connor, 43, a medical technician, professor Larry Sabato. said about Clinton. "We know what About this time every four years, Polls indicate that Bush has been we've got with Bush. I don't think Virginia's Democratic leaders, like slowly increasing his lead over Clin- we'd be in for any big surprises." Halloween goblins, have gone into ton and independent Ross Perot in O'Connor, a self-described Navy hiding, peeking out just long enough Virginia, while Clinton maintains brat, is particularly upset about to cast ballots on Election Day. comfortable margins in Maryland Clinton's draft record. This year, however, the party's and the District of Columbia. "My husband didn't like the war hierarchy, from Gov. L. Douglas WRC-TV (Channel 4) reported either," she said. "None of my fam- Wilder on down, is campaigning Wednesday that Bush's support in ily liked it. But when you live in this openly and vigorously for the par- Virginia, measured last Saturday, country, you have an obligation." ty's nominees for national office, stood at 43 percent, compared to Margaret Elder, 68, who retired believing that the two southerners 39 percent for Clinton and 11 per- from a career in data processing, offer the best chance in decades for cent for Perot, with 7 percent un- plans to vote for Clinton in part be- the party to carry the state in a decided. cause of his energy, though she is presidential race. With the margin of error at 4.1 not sure whether to trust him. But moderates Bill Clinton and Al percent, the race is a tossup. "At least he seems upbeat," she Gore still may not have enough ap- Another poll, released yesterday said. peal among the state's conservative jointly by George Mason University "George Bush is too old. He's old guard to break a string of six and the University of Virginia, only one month younger than I am. consecutive Republican sweeps in showed Bush with 47 percent, fol- You simply don't have the energy presidential voting. lowed by Clinton with 36, Perot "It's our best chance of winning" that you had 20 years ago. Things with 13 and 4 percent undecided. do start wearing out. I mean, my since 1964, when Texan Lyndon B. Polling in Maryland from Satur- knees are shot. We had our time. Johnson won in a landslide over con- day to Monday, WRC-TV found servative Barry Goldwater, said It's time to turn it over to people Clinton with 46 percent, Bush with who are younger," she said. Paul Goldman, the Democratic 30 percent, Perot 16 percent, and 8 state chairman. Ruth Thue, a 77-year-old retiree, percent undecided. is the type of voter all three candi- He added that Virginians haven't A Channel 4 poll in the District, dates are competing for right now. voted against an incumbent Repub- conducted Oct. 12 to 14, gave Clin- "I'm in a quandary," she said. "I lican president since 1932. ton 71 percent, Bush 17 percent With voter registration topping 3 just have to go in there and hope and Perot 8 percent. million for the first time, and God tells me what to do. I make up While Wilder, Lt. Gov. Donald S. my mind and then something hap- swelled by 400,000 new voters, the Beyer Jr. and Attorney General result in Virginia "could easily be pens to change it. I really don't ap- Mary Sue Terry are touting the decided by turnout," said Goldman, prove of these politicians bringing Clinton-Gore ticket, Virginia Re- Joe Elton, the GOP's executive up bad things about other people." publicans hope to halt a drift from director, agrees with the premise, Kathy Cook, 39, who is pregnant Bush in Northern Virginia by em- with her third child, doesn't believe but says heightened interest helps phasizing that Clinton favors D.C. Clinton supports traditional family his party. statehood, which, if adopted, could values. "I'm very leery of Clinton Elton said the Democrats will result Commuter for and leery of his wife, for sure. She "have a good operation" in ma- urbanites stands for all the things that I don't. jority-black precincts, but "when A handful of Northern Virginians, She doesn't support the family." the turnout nears 80 percent, it's interviewed in a town house com- Marjorie MacArthur, 33, a prod- good news for us." munity in Merrifield, produced uct manager for Bell Atlantic, is If Clinton carries Virginia, "it will more Bush than Clinton supporters. leaning toward Clinton but went to be a short evening for George But most agreed that Clinton a meeting of Perot volunteers Wed- Bush," said Bob Holsworth, political seemed to have more fans locally nesday to get more information. science professor at Virginia Com- and the Bush supporters were "I've seen some of his infomer- monwealth University. mostly lukewarm, more opposed to cials and I think he makes some "Clinton will have to win 40 Clinton than true Bush admirers. good points," she said. sort alm The Vote Starts Here Kicking It Off With Handbills, Bumper Stickers & Leaflets Sonadji Bey-Farris, 16, Clinton volunteer, works the entrance to the Metro stop. By Laura Blumenfeld Impress your parents: Washington Post Staff Writer "He wasn't afraid or embarrassed or shy!" COOS Ellen Cury, mother of Joshua, a zippy 13-year-old B ottom line: It gets girls. Looped around your who hands out Clinton material. "I was real proud of neck, swinging from a chain, the BUSH- him. He walked right up to people." QUAYLE volunteer badge reels them in. Impress yourself: "Girls come up to me and say, 'Where'd you get "They push me aside. I'm surprised I'm not that?' and we start talking," says Paul Brady, 15, afraid," says Ben Gladstone, 17, who distributes from Bishop O'Connell High School in Arlington. Clinton fliers in McLean. "My area is highly "It's a good pickup gimmick." Republican." Who can resist the earnest gaze of a civic minded Learn stuff: guy? "I have acquired a lot of knowledge of Xerox "Girls figure I'm a prude or modest They feel machines," says Clinton volunteer Ofer Zer, 15, from safer," says Pepin Tuma, 16, known at Langley High the District School in McLean as "Mr. Republican See weird stuff: The perks of working on a political campaign. It's This guy took the Bill Clinton-Al Gore literature not why. they're volunteering, but hey, enjoy the and buried it in his garden," says Ginger Zan Over, ride. Teenagers are coming out n.droves this 17, who delivered leaflets in McLean. Election '92, more SO than in recent memory, say Mess up traffic: volunteer coordinators for both the Bush and "Be careful you don't cause accidents," warns a Clinton camps (Perot headquarters says it has no Bush instruction sheet on how to wave signs at teenage volunteers). What's up? intersections. Attractive young people may get the Could be MTV's Rock the Vote campaign, attention of drivers, but can also be traffic hazards." Clinton's sax blast on Arsenio and his MTV gig Or. Become as sophisticated as television pundits: maybe it's just a reflection of a more politically think Clinton will win because I like Clinton," plugged-in generation. It's cool, these days to:care says Joshua Cury, 13. about the environment, about poverty, race, abor And most important, you glimpse the knotty tion, to rap on issues. process of getting an official elected. It's Sonadji "It's not as trendy as a beeper," says Matt Tobin Bey Farris's first day on the Clinton campaign. The 17, plucking at his volunteer I.D. badge. "But I wear 16-year-old from the District's Wilson High School is it to school." working the Metro Center stop. After class, instead of track practice and debate Her smile greets waves of droop-shouldered, team, teenagers are leafleting neighborhoods, run- saggy-faced commuters. She vies for their attention ning errands, staffing phones, stuffing envelopes, with a flower peddler, panhandler jingling his cup, stapling namnhlets and sometimes their fin to "Youch!" yells a guy wearing a gold camel earring. "Clinton's economic plan!" Bey-Farris says. hand- Stapled an index finger. He and a bunch of class- ing out "Putting People First. A National Economic mates from Bishop O'Connell High School are on a Strategy for America." leaflet fold-two-three-staple assembly line at Bush- "No way, Jose," says a man, shielding himself with Quayle headquarters. Fliers blur in their hands. his briefcase. They're fast, way faster than the slugs at the adult "Thank god!" says a woman. who takes a couple of table. leafiets. "Quayle was awesome," in the vice-presidential "Clinton's economic plan!" Bey-Farris says a cou- debate, says Julie Warner, 17. ple of zillion more times. "He was a scrapper!" says Mark Turner, 17. She'll recite it in her sleep tonight. But for now "Young people should be involved," Warner says. she's happy, popping leaflets into hands, twirling "It's going to be our world soon." left, spinning right, don't let that lady with the dog "We're making history," says Turner, through a get by, doing her part. mouthful of pepperoni pizza. Free food, another vol- She catches their eyes, the peppy girl on the side- unteer perk. Other reasons to work on a campaign: walk, and for a sec their wrinkled brows unfurrow. Ohe Hospington 10g Molly Ivins FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 Thoughts on the Final Days AUSTIN-My poor daddy, who is seriously he's started garbling words all the time? I don't right-wing, is having an awful time trying to decide mean his usual Bush-speak non-sentences, but two whom to vote for. "One's a nincompoop, one's a geek or three times in a non-sentence, he'll start to say a and the other one's a Democrat," he said mournfully. word, get it wrong and have to go back and start it You notice the economy improved by better than again. That's what stress and exhaustion do to a 2 percent in the quarter when Ross Perot started person. Campaigning as hard as these guys are spending money. Do we think there's a connection? doing is grueling: It is not good for a 68-year-old Every time I see that Bush ad. which is about man. If the R's have polls showing this thing is a every three minutes, that does nothing but attack no-hoper, if I were Bush's doc, I'd pull him out. Clinton-the one where "average voters" keep As a civil libertarian, which to my mind is the saying, "I just don't trust him"-I think, "Boy, same as saying "as an American," I am horrified by there's another constructive proposal for gettin' the FBI's cooperation in a sting operation aimed at this country out of the ditch." Jim Oberwetter, chairman of the Bush-Quayle cam- Bush did come up with a couple of good ideas the paign in Texas. It is unconscionable for a law other day. They were in that speech that Jim Baker enforcement agency to go around trying to entrap was supposed to make, but they changed their citizens into committing crimes. In the sticky legal minds, and then changed them again, and then history of sting operations, which are sometimes changed them again. necessary in drug enforcement cases and a few The Republicans bore down hard and decided others, the requirements are clear-there must be what we need is a commission to figure out how to some probable cause to believe a crime is being or get from a military-based economy to a civilian- will be committed. In this case, the FBI's informa- based economy. Not that there are not already tion came from the convicted wiretapper and hundreds of studies on this, but at least they've known fantasist Scott Barnes, no one's idea of a pinpointed the problem. reliable source (except Ross Perot's). I hope Ober- As always with Bush's ideas in this campaign, wetter raises hell about it. you're left sitting there trying to figure out what An interesting article in the current issue of the took him so long. Virginia Quarterly Review explores the growth of Texas is sure a jump ball at this point. Now, no conspiracy theories since the assassination of John one knows where it's going to land. Perot had the Kennedy and finds two significant reasons why our mo, but now he appears to be somewhat dement- political soil is so fertile for nut cases. One is our ed. The R's and the D's are all sittin' around bitin' unique situation as a self-created land, as a concoc- their nails. tion of myth as much as history. The author, It was real nice of the Republicans to mess with Sanford Pinsker, believes Americans have always Clinton's momma. Boy, is he getting mileage out of been prone toward a Manichaean view of the that, or what? He gets indignant about it several world, in which good and evil have grappled for the times a day now. American soul. But when he first heard about it, his reaction He also notes that our growing distrust of was, "They must have thought Brezhnev was government feeds the notion that this vast, name- calling my mom to get a tip on a horse in the fifth." less juggernaut of forces is controlled from the very His momma is a big horse player. top. He notes: "For the hide-bound conspiracy The Republican strategy is clear at last-they'r theorist, the very absence of proof is proof, yet waiting to ambush Clinton in the fifth debate. another instance (should more be needed) of the The sight of Sen. Al Gore being positively frisky is insidious workings of one's enemy." The vision of enough to make me think this one is in the bag for Ross Perot, bright-eyed as a squirrel, barking, the Democrats. It's kind of like watching Kaw-liga "Well, isn't that interesting? Don't you think it's the cigar-store Indian come to life and get giddy. interesting?" comes to mind. I'm worried about Bush. Have you noticed that 1992, Creators Syndicate Inc. JFK: The Files Are Opened A LOT OF PEOPLE have doubts about the There are a few exceptions. The release of docu- accuracy and comprehensiveness of the ments may be postponed by the review board for official version of the John F. Kennedy certain enumerated reasons such as the need to assassination. That some of these are fanciful or protect the identity of agents still at risk. The politically inspired or bizarre does not warrant dis- president has the same authority with respect to missing them all or simply sneering "conspiracy executive branch papers only. In a message released theory" at any mention of the the great inconsisten- on Tuesday, President Bush interprets this provision cies and oddities that mark the story. Spurred by the far more broadly than the text of the law justifies, a persistence of legitimate doubts, Congress acted this position that will undoubtedly be contested and, if fall to open the assassination files to the public. On invoked, appealed. Access to photos and X-rays taken Monday President Bush signed that legislation, and during the autonsy would continue to be controlled by the countdown to full revelation began. the Kennedy family. But a troubling larger exemption All government offices must immediately begin for "all records and other material that have been reviewing, identifying and preparing relevant docu- donated to the National Archives pursuant to a deed ments. Within 60 days, the National Archives must of gift regulating access to the material" was fortu- establish the President John F. Kennedy Assassination nately removed before the bill was passed. Records Collection, which will receive those docu- These files were created in a different era, one ments, prepare guides and indexes and develop plans that did not emphasize the public's right to see a for public access. Within 90 days, the president is wide range of government papers and one in which a required to appoint a five-member independent review shocked nation offered little objection to decisions board whose nominations will be sent, under deadline, made in the name of protecting the privacy of the to the Senate for confirmation. No one who is an murdered president's family and close associates. By employee of the federal government or who has been now all the information about the assassination involved in any of the many assassination investigations belongs to history. The release of these documents may be appointed to the board, which has the authority should help to answer the many questions that to order the release of any document. persist. It is good public policy. ene POSI FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 Health Insurance Blues E RRORS OF judgment by its management by setting up for-profit subsidiaries. Those included certainly contributed to the financial de- the unfortunate spinoffs in which the local Blue Cross cline of the Blue Cross-Blue Shield of the has lost $77 million since the mid-1980s. Because National Capital Area. But its basic troubles are some of them were overseas, the forthcoming con- deeper and more ominous. Health insurance in this gressional hearings will no doubt show that manage- country is sliding rapidly toward a crisis. The impact ment spent a lot of money on travel to exotic is most immediately visible in the Blues, for they have places-among other questionable diversions. That become the insurers of last resort in this country. will become, deservedly, a major embarrassment to The Blue Cross-Blue Shield that serves this area the people who were running the organization. But it's still insures small groups and individuals regard- not the basic reason for the decline, which will now less of their medical histories. Premiums run high result in folding the National Capital Area Blues into and are going higher. There are people who pay a their less adventurous but more tightly run Virginia third of their incomes for health insurance. But affiliate. No one ought to be left under the impression Blue Cross will insure them when other companies that this takeover is more than a temporary remedy. will not at any price. Under the present system, insurers will continue to The Blues invented health insurance as a benefit compete by seeking lower and lower risks. That will open to everyone in the community. Originally, make it steadily harder for most people to find everyone paid the same premium. But as costs of adequate health insurance unless they have the good care rose, many buyers of insurance began looking luck to work for large and rich employers. The number for cheaper alternatives. Insurance companies re- of uninsured people in this country is now rising by sponded by offering lower rates for groups that about 100,000 a month. Health care costs, meanwhile, were younger than average, or in safer industries are rising a little over 10 percent a year. The plight of or otherwise represented lower risks. As time this city's largest insurer is only part of the mounting passed, the Blues were increasingly left with the evidence that the need for health care reform has high-risk end of the insurance pool. become urgent. It needs to be the first priority of the Some of them desperately tried to generate income president who takes office next January. Again, the District and Kids W E HOPE U.S. District Judge Thomas There were more deficiencies. "Shocking" was the Hogan stands firm on his threat to hold word Judge Hogan used to describe DHS's delay in the District administration in contempt getting $36 million in badly needed and available for its continued failure to meet deadlines for court- federal entitlement funds for the program. "Insuffi- ordered reforms of the city's troubled child welfare cient management attention at the highest levels of system. Judge Hogan's firm warning was prompted by DHS" was the reason, said the court monitor. This, another quarterly report from the court-appointed we note, is the DHS level that had itself elevated to monitor documenting the Department of Human an assistant city administrator slot and expanded to Services' continued failure to comply with all require- include four new cabinet positions. ments of the plan that the department had agreed to If it seems as though this newspaper has been at it in negotiations. It is the same old story: Some for years with the city's Department of Human progress here and there, signs of hard work by the Services and its various bureaucratic forerunners, dedicated down in the trenches, but mostly slippage we have. Faced with circumstances similar to the or outright noncompliance with the deadlines that delay and inaction we see today, we said in a Nov. count. "Simply ignoring deadlines is not satisfactory to, 11, 1974, editorial about the city's newly trumpeted the court," said Judge Hogan. But the report suggests 513-page Comprehensive Child Care Plan: that more than deadlines have been ignored. Examples: "By the very nature of some of the services the With so many case plans either out of date or District must provide, delay and incompetence and inadequate, a case review of every child and family inaction can be dangerous to the children at best and, with problems in the welfare system was to have at worst, fatal. A small child, who is being abused or begun in the fall of 1991 and to have been completed criminally neglected or otherwise maltreated, cannot within six months at most. A year later, the review wait two or three more years for a revamped child still wasn't fully underway. care system to meet his needs. It would be nice if the No progress had been made in getting 377 chil- Department for once demonstrated and sustained an dren out of unlicensed or overcrowded foster homes appropriate degree of energy and dispatch in trying or reducing the number of children placed in homes to see its own new program through." more than 100 miles away from the city. DHS didn't, and the city failed to meet its obliga- Despite a court order requiring an investigation of tions to those children. Two decades later, at the end child neglect complaints within 30 days, DHS com= of the Barry administration, a federal judge described piled a backing of 263 cases representing 630 that system as "a travesty." Is life any better for children. These children are at the greatest risk. today's vulnerable children? On Election-Eve 'Pollercoaster, Voter Is the Switch By Richard Morin lished Wednesday also had a 10-point Clin- was different. It suggested Bush had essen- Larry Hugick, managing editor of the Gal- or Perot, which means that likely voter ton advantage. The Wall Street Journal tially caught Clinton with six days remaining FRIDAY. OCTOBER 1992 Washington Post Staff Writer lup, Poll. "They should look over the screening questions that tend to exclude and NBC put Clinton's lead at 11 on Wed- in the race. Even President Bush, who last course of several days of results. The them risk under-reporting Clinton and It has been a tough year for America's nesday and reported a 5-point margin yes- week urged voters to ignore the work of take our poll using tracking methodology Perot's share of the vote. (Or, conversely, if pollwatchers, and it may get worse before terday, based on the previous night's in- those "nutty" pollsters, cited the Gallup Poll and look at other polls, and realize that the young voters are included in the polls but it gets better. terviewing. ABC reported Clinton ahead as evidence that Clinton was collapsing. truth probably lies somewhere in between ultimately do not vote, then Bush's percent- On Wednesday, major news organizations by 7 points in its two-day tracking poll Whether the Gallup number was right or all of these polls." age is understated.) released public opinion polls that alternately released Wednesday (and 9 points based wrong is not what concerns some experts. While their numbers often have varied Huguick said he sees a potential prob- suggested that Bill Clinton continued to en- on its most recent results, reported yes- They suggest that the media might have professional pollsters agree on one thing lem in Gallup's likely voter screening joy a 10-point lead or desperately clung terday). Even the two presidential cam- been more cautious in reporting the 2- This is an extremely difficult year to technique with newly registered voters to a rapidly dissipating 2-point advantage. paign polling operations agreed that the point margin, given the other results sug- presidential preference polling. And get who are 22 years old or older. President Bush surging? Clinton coasting? lead was hovering around 7 points. gesting a wider lead. ting it right this year will be much harder A potentially large baby boomer vote It looked yesterday that the voters were It was not the first time this year-nor, "What it tells you is that the extreme than in the relatively quiescent campaigns may also pose a problem for pollsters. In going for another ride on what some wags pollsters fear, will it be the last-that the finding, the outlyer, is the one that is:at- of 1984 and 1988. the past, boomers have a notoriously poor already have dubbed the "pollercoaster." results of the major media polls differed con- tracting the lion's share of the media at- The biggest problem, the polling ex- voting record. But with the Democrat's Yet was the race really as confused- siderably from other presidential preference tention," said Thomas E. Mann, director perts say, is deciding who really will vote double-boomer ticket of Clinton and Al- and the polls as contradictory-as yester- surveys released at about the same time. of governmental studies at the Brookings Many people lie to pollsters about wheth bert Gore Jr., members of the baby boom- day's news reports, talk shows and cafe- A Wall Street Journal-NBC Poll reported Institution, who said he doubts that the er they will vote. That forces pollsters to er generation may vote in historically high teria chatter seemed to indicate? Most a 19 percentage point Clinton advantage race is as close as the Gallup poll sug- attempt to separate likely voters from numbers-and confound the preelection experts suggest probably not. last week when other surveys were showing gested. More significant, he said, is "the those who say they will vote but really will polls that used likely voter screens based In fact, only one poll showed Clinton a margin of about half that size. Six weeks rough similarity in the other findings. But not. "And we all know that the determi- on old assumptions about who votes. held just a 2-point advantage, done by Gal- ago, a Post-ABC News survey reported that the relish for a close fight was too nation of who is a likely voter is arbitrary Then, too, there is the election itself, fea- lup for CNN and USA Today. At the same Clinton led Bush by 21 points at a time when good a story to avoid." and may be particularly prone to error this turing a three-way race and a candidate- time, no fewer than four indicated the lead other polls were showing the Democrat with Even senior officials of the Gallup Or- year," Mann said. Ross Perot-who alternately enchants and Wednesday was between 7 and 11 per- a 10- to 15-point lead. The New York Times ganization, which yesterday put Clinton's One particularly worrisome group are repels many voters, who appear to be centage points-essentially where it has and CBS News reported a 2 point Clinton lead in the daily tracking poll at 3 points, younger voters. Most typically do not vote. bouncing between Perot, Bush and Clinton been for the better part of a week. margin following Bush's acceptance speech cautioned against relying on theirs or any But that may change. They have been tar- in the polls with dismaying frequency. A Washington Post survey released in Houston last August, though most other single poll to characterize this race. geted by MTV and its "Rock the Vote" cam As a consequence, some pollsters say, Thursday showed Clinton's lead at 10 polls suggested a much larger Clinton edge. "They should not place too much em- paign. Polls suggest that these younger vot- election results may be much different than points. A Los Angeles Times poll pub- Still, the impact of the latest Gallup poll phasis on any single day's results," said ers seem particularly attracted to Clinton the findings of election-eve weekend polls. FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 'God Does Not Endorse Candidates' Clerics Condemn Anti-Clinton Epistle Upbeat President, Charged by Polls, By Gustav Niebuhr differ" in politics, said Saper- Washington Post Staff Writer stein, director of the Religious Action Center of Reform Juda- Steps Up Rhetoric As the election campaign ism. "From the Jewish stand- draws to a close, here's one point, God is not a Republican more weighty issue voters may or a Democrat. God does not By Ann Devroy wish to ponder: By casting a Washington Post Staff Writer endorse candidates." ballot for Bill Clinton and Albert As to the Democratic candi- WARREN, Mich., Oct. 29- Gore Jr., would they in fact be dates' religious character, the Pumped up by the polls and the mo- risking God's wrath? Rev. Jack Turner, retired pas- ment, President Bush raced across This question-a burning tor of Mt. Vernon Baptist Michigan today in rhetorical over- one, in that it could involve the Church in Arlington, where drive, attacking the "way-out, far- fate of one's soul-has been Gore and his family worship, out" Democratic ticket on every- roiling some members of the offered a positive report. In a thing from northern spotted owls to religious community, ever since letter co-signed by Clinton's his opponent's draft record. a group of conservative Chris- former pastor, the Rev. Brian Bush, during his 12th campaign tian activists put out a pamphlet Harbour of Richardson, Tex., he trip to this vital state, was intro- this month warning that "to vote stated that Clinton and Gore duced at three stops in Detroit sub- for Bill Clinton is to sin against "are men whose heads and urbs by Michigan Gov. John M. En- God." The pamphlet-140,000 hearts have been baptized by gler, who called the contest here copies of which have been dis- divine grace and mercy We "dead-even," the Democratic cam- tributed by the antiabortion believe their walk with God to paign "dead in the water" and the group Operation Rescue-says be genuine and sincere." Bush campaign "hot." that voters supporting Clinton, After the news conference, And hot Bush was. who favors abortion rights and First Baptist's senior pastor, the At a midday GOP rally at Ma- gay rights, would help promote Rev. Everett Goodwin, sought comb Community College, the pres- "rebellion against the 10 Com- to frame the debate in theolog- ident unleashed a rhetorical fusil- mandments and other laws of ical terms. It is permissible, he lade on Bill Clinton and running the Bible." said, to say a stand on a partic- mate Sen. Albert Gore Jr., attack- Yesterday, a diverse group of ular issue is morally wrong, but ing their fitness for office, their 42 religious leaders— one cannot identify a political character and charging, "My dog Protestants, Jews and Catho- candidate with sin itself. "You're Millie knows more about foreign lics-signed a statement heat- making a person the sin, rather policy than these two bozos." edly taking issue with that than an issue," he said. "What In particular, Bush targeted claim, calling it a piece of "spir- you've done is to incarnate evil," Gore, whom he now calls "Ozone a role that in Christianity be- itual arrogance and political ex- Man," or just plain "Ozone." "You longs ultimately to Satan alone. tremism that has no place in our know why I call him Ozone Man?" Despite the criticism, the au- public discourse." The group the president said. "This guy is so thors of the Operation Rescue also denounced other anti-Clin- far out in the environmental ex- pamphlet remained unmoved. ton mailings aimed at religious treme, we'll be up to our neck in "We're only quoting the Bible," groups that it said either dis- owls and outta work for every said the Rev. Lou Sheldon, torted the facts or offered po- American. He is way out, far out, chairman of the Traditional Val- man." liticized "biblical positions" on ues Coalition. "It's a grave mis- While many of his aides were still various issues. take for Christians to vote for "There is a terribly troubling waking up, Bush started his morn- Clinton and Gore." tendency toward theocracy in ing with an hour of television inter- And the Rev. Keith Tucci, all this," said James Dunn, a See BUSH, A16, Col. 1 director of Operation Rescue, signer of the statement and the said that to back a candidate director of the Baptist Joint with Clinton's views would be to Maryland's governor is expected Committee for Public Affairs, a abet sin-in itself a sinful act. to endorse Bush today. Page DI religious liberty watchdog agen- "If you're driving the get-away cy. "It smells a lot like the Mas- car, you're guilty for what the sachusetts Bay Colony," where hold-up man does," he said. "It's Puritan rulers maintained a not up for debate." heady mix of religion and pol- And what if a person does itics. vote for Clinton. comes later to Rabbi David Saperstein, who believe it was sintui and wishes joined Dunn at a news confer- to be restored to grace? "They ence at First Baptist Church, ask Jesus to forgive them." agreed. "Good, moral people can Tucci said. CIJP smit FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 Clinton Campaign Seeks Permission for Loan The Clinton campaign, planning to spend its $55 mil- broke. They're embarassed," Malek said. "This is the lion in federal money down "close to zero" by Election first real test Bill Clinton has had in managing federal Day, has asked permission to borrow $1 million to pay funds and he's failed it." bills right after Tuesday's voting. Christine Varney, general counsel to the Clinton- Bush-Quayle campaign officials immediately attacked Gore campaign, who filed the request, said in an inter- the Democrats' request to the Federal Election Com- view that her committee is "targeted to hit close to zero mission, saying it was an improper attempt to change on Nov. 3." But she said the loan request was "not about campaign rules just before the election to free up mon- politics, and buying more television ads, but cash flow." ey for last-minute political expenses, such as television She said the committee anticipated about $1.2 million commercials. in reimbursements from the Secret Service, which has Bush campaign manager Frederic V. Malek said at a been late paying the campaign for travel on the candi- news conference that the "panicked request for relief dates' planes. from profligate spending" should be rejected. "They're -Charles R. Babcock An Upbeat President tightening of the polls reflects an Steps Up the Rhetoric electorate uneasy about Clinton's character, and they are doing all they can to keep the dialogue these BUSH, From A1 president was finally on the move, few remaining days on character, without -mentioning the forbidden rather than on the economy. news, chortling about how Clinton "Big Mo." Bush occasionally got tongue tied mad been "measuring the Oval Of- In 1980, Bush won his first pres- today as he went after his opponent. ce for drapes" but that now the idential caucus in Iowa and tried run- He called New York Gov. Mario M. nace had tightened. ning as the candidate with "Big Mo," Cuomo, Mary Cuomo. He tried to Bush, who dismissed pollsters as big momentum. He was soundly de- hit Clinton on the draft and it came "hutty" just last week when they feated because, many suggested, he out like this: "You can't say I got an howed him at least 10 or 12 points based his candidacy on momentum induction and then I didn't. You ehind the Democrat, liked them not issues. "We don't do Big Mo," can't say you wrote the man that aore today when polls showed a far said campaign political director Mary once. You can't say that you're go- Barrower lead for Clinton. Matalin. "we do C.O., cautious opti- ing to have one position and then In a morning speech to the Cham- mism." Their optimism is based on another position you got to stand up ter of Commerce, a more subdued public and private polls that show a for. Take a position. Lead. That's Bush portrayed Clinton as a typical single digit race-they say a six point what being president is about. You emocrat who would raise taxes, difference-and an electoral break- cannot lead by misleading." crease spending, and return the down that while not good, at least And here is my appeal. Bar- Nation to the high-inflation, high-un- makes a win remotely possible if the bara and I both have tried to uphold employment era of Jimmy Carter. closing trend continues. the public trust. And character. Bill But even there, Bush slipped into The whole Bush campaign, in- Clinton-Bruce Willis mentioned this now-familiar garbled syntax in cluding the warm up speakers, were this, Bruce Willis said that, I mean, Thich he forgets his audience may be charged up today. At the Warren Clinton said that it is not the charac- Tearing a particular line for the first event, Democratic state Sen. Gil- ter of the president but the character Time and fails to tell it the beginning bert J. Dinello churned the crowd of the presidency. Wrong. They're a story. Or the end. Or the con- into a frenzy by calling Clinton a text. draft-dodger, a liar and a man who locked in. They are interlocked." Noting he had criticized the news "wails, whines and wimps out." media for being unfair, he told those Actor Bruce Willis shouted into in the crowd they should not take the microphone that Clinton was their anger out on journalists. "Save not qualified to be president. "I'm your wrath for those faithless Repub- pissed off," Willis shouted, to hear licans and faithless Democrats who the Democrat say he is qualified. At a later rally, this one at the Gerald wrote me off about two months ago, Ford Library in Grand Rapids, Wil- because we're going to show that lis introduced the former president anthole we are going to win this elec- with the same complaints in lan- tion." guage rare for a political rally. At a later rally, Bush straightened Bush, too, hit on what he said were out the rathole reference, citing Clinton's lack of qualifications for the President Harry S. Truman's com- Oval Office because of "waffling" on plaint that the pundits who predicted issues. 100 can't be president 11 you he would lose in 1948 "don't know try to be all things to all people." how to pound sand in a rathole." Bush said. complaining Clinton had Those writing him off, Bush said, "if. ands and buts" to explain his po- are like those 1948 pundits. Bush and sitions on every issue. "You cannot his aides, who practiced for months in have a lot of buts in the Oval Office," dismissing what the president calls Bush screamed, his voice growing "gioom-and-doom" polls, had the hoarse. tricky task here today of arguing the Bush aides maintain that the sort alim FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30, 1992 Democrat Scorns Foe's 'Politics of Denial, Division' By Edward Walsh Washington Post Staff Writer JERSEY CITY, Oct. 29-Fight- ing to hold together the coalition that has put him within striking dis- tance of the White House, Demo- cratic presidential nominee Bill Clinton swept across the nation's industrial heartland today appealing to voters to reject "the politics of denial and division and blame which the Bush administration has visited on this country for too long." In a low-key address at the Uni- versity of Toledo and a lectern- pounding, almost angry speech to a huge get-out-the-vote rally later in Detroit, Clinton wrapped himself in the mystique of President John F. Kennedy and his brother Robert F. Kennedy. On the surface Clinton was se- rene and confident, but as the days before Tuesday's voting dwindle there is renewed tension within his campaign and a gnawing worry about the impact of President Bush's continuing assault on his character and trustworthiness. "The man has no core convic- tions," Clinton said of Bush before a morning jog in Toledo. "This is a guy here who would literally say or BY FRANK KOHNSTON-THE WASHINGTON POST do anything to get elected. And any- In Michigan, Bush said, "Millie knows more about foreign policy" than Clinton. time you're an incumbent president and you don't have any standards, they spent the day nervously sponse to a Bush ad attacking Clin- you have a chance to win. I have scrambling to purchase additional ton's record in Arkansas and a fresh always thought I was the under- television time for a new round of assault on Bush's record on the dog." ads and redrawing Clinton's week- economy. As Clinton pressed his case to- end schedule to protect several key Democratic and Republican strat- day, top aides in Little Rock tried to battleground states that he must egists agreed that Texas and Flor- fight off impressions that the race carry to win the election. ida, two states where Clinton cam- had tightened significantly. But The new ads include a tough re- paigned this week, are now moving toward the president, while Georgia Experts say presidential race isn't as confused as poll results. Page A16 See CLINTON, A16, Col. 4 VIJE FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 Democrat Fights to Bind Coalition ican politician until this election to voters, who he said have not decid- CLINTON, From AI try to ask people to join together ed to vote "because they're satisfied and North Carolina, states long on across racial lines, to seize common with the way things are." Clinton's target list, remain ex- opportunities and to tear down At the University of Toledo, tremely competitive. At the same common problems." speaking in a measured tone, he time, they said Bush's daylong visit He went on to quote Kennedy as returned to his core campaign mes- to Ohio on Wednesday had substan- saying that 'if we fail to dare, if we sage on the economy and the need tially strengthened his position do not try, the next generation will for change. The choice to be made there and agreed that New Jersey, harvest the fruit of our indiffer- on Tuesday, he said, "is as old as where Clinton held a double-digit ence' and inherit 'a world we did America-a choice between more lead before the debates, now is not want, did not choose, but a of the same and fundamental within a few points. world we could have made better.' change, a choice between those But the strategists were in sharp The audience rocked Cobo Hall who believe we can do better and disagreement over the state of the with wild cheers as Clinton repeat- those who think things are all right race in such other key states as edly echoed John Kennedy's 1960 the way they are, between those Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and campaign call that "we can do bet- who have a limited view of our Tennessee, with Republicans saying ter," and by the end of his speech country and those who understand the president put those states into his final words were drowned out by that America must be a nation of the toss-up category and claiming the roar of the crowd. boundless hopes and dreams." the momentum heading into the From Detroit, Clinton flew here "When Mr. Bush looks at an anx- weekend. late this afternoon to fulfill a prom- ious and frightened America and Clinton's pollster Stan Greenberg ise he made to a group of New York tells us this is as good as it gets, disputed suggestions that Clinton's AIDS activists in April, promising in that says something worse about lead is slipping away. "I think [the a speech to boost government fund- his presidency than anything I could race] was closing in the first part of ing for AIDS research and treat- ever say," Clinton added. the week," Greenberg said. "The ment and accusing the Bush admin- Clinton has struggled throughout polling from Tuesday and Wednes- istration of indifference to the dis- the fall to keep attention focused on day has been very steady. On ease. the economy, but in the campaign's this day, both nationally and in bat- Clinton promised a sweeping pro- final days the president's mounting tleground states, we show a very gram of AIDS education, guaran- assault on him has provoked a se- steady race." teed access to "affordable, quality ries of harsh counterattacks and led For Clinton, the next four days care" for those infected with the him to spend more time condemn- will be a frenzy of travel as he hop- AIDS virus, increased availability of ing Bush's campaign tactics than his scotches back and forth through experimental treatments for the economic performance. key industrial battlegrounds and disease and to fight discrimination He has described as "baldface several southern states still in play. against AIDS patients. lies" some of the radio commercials The Arkansas governor hopes to "The truth is [AIDS] is every- being run by his opponent and today boost Democratic turnout in the na- body's problem, not only because it he complained that "there is no tion's big cities and hold on to the is spreading throughout society, but standard of truth in the Bush cam- suburban voters who abandoned his because the sheer cost and burden paign" and that the president party in the 1980s but who are dis- of dealing with the AIDS crisis may "wasn't telling the truth" in the illusioned with Bush and have been absolutely consume all the gains we campaign. attracted by Clinton's promise of hope to make in straightening out "There is one guiding principle: fundamental economic change. the other problems in our health Stay in power at all cost," Clinton That coalition is his key to vic- care system," he said. "It costs ev- said. "Tell them whatever you think tory, and today in Detroit he in- eryone in ways that are financial will scare them about their oppo- voked the memory of Robert Ken- and human and moral. We can't af- nents. The American people are nedy in an appeal to his supporters ford the cost in dollars and death." going to have to think a long time. to stay with him through the final But at this stage of the campaign, before they want four more years of brutal hours of the campaign. policy speeches count for far less this. It will be a miserable experi- "Twenty-five years ago, Senator than Clinton's last-minute drive to ence for them." Robert Kennedy said something we energize his supporters and win ought to all think about between over the remaining undecided, es- Staff writers David Maraniss with now and Election Day," Clinton pecially young people, whom he has Clinton and Dan Balz in said. "In a very difficult, divided courted in visits to dozens of college Washington contributed to this time, he was perhaps the last Amer- campuses, and newly registered report. ene JJUS By Michael Isikoff tricks. But he insisted it was entire- Washington Post Staff Writer ly reasonable for him to have be- lieved such stories, especially when DALLAS, Oct. 29-As new polls senior White House aides failed to showed his support eroding, Ross deny them over the summer after Perot sought to rally his troops to- he raised them privately. night, touting a new blitz of net- "Is it thinkable that these wonder- work "infomercials" he will run the ful people in the Republican Party last two nights before the election might do that?" Perot asked. "This is and predicting a "landslide victory" the same party that gave us Water- on Tuesday. gate. This is the same party that Appearing on "Larry King Live," gave us Iran-contra. This is the same Perot said tonight he "absolutely" re- party that's up to its ears in Iraqgate grets raising his unsubstantiated al- now. So there's a pattern here. legtions of Republican "dirty tricks" "Now, I hope they didn't do it. And on national television last weekend. I take their word they didn't do it. Those charges precipitated a wave of But I will wonder 50 years from now, news media questions and attacks by political opponents that Perot aides if I'm still around, why they just today acknowledged had stopped his didn't come back to me and say, 'Ross, we don't know what you're campaign's momentum and caused his support to drop back below 20 talking about.' percent in tracking polls released Earlier, attempting to refute over the past two days. charges that Ross Peret is trying to Perot Predicts a Landslide Victory' Tuesday Independent Candidate Says He 'Absolutely' Regrets Raising Allegation of Dirty Tricks But Perot tonight dismissed the buy the presidency, campaign aides to the Texas billionaire released polls as irrelevant, saying he will be propelled to victory by a massive figures they said show Perot has outpouring of newly registered vot- been greatly outspent by his two ers. "We're going to win all 50 major rivals, and the aides called for an overhaul of the nation's cam- states," Perot said. "We're going to win a landslide victory. We're in a paign-finance system. two-minute drill." According to aides, Perot has He also urged supporters to bought 3½ hours of prime time pro- watch a new "infomercial" to be gramming for Sunday and Monday, televised Sunday night that he said including one-hour blocks on NBC he will hammer home with new vig- each night. or his economic message to voters. Campaign spending reports filed "We're going to have a program with the Federal Election Commis- that may get turned into a television sion show that since reentering the series," Perot said of the Sunday race Oct. 1, Perot has spent more night broadcast, one of a series he than $37 million, almost all of it his has paid to run the last two nights be- own money and exceeding the ex- fore the election. "It's deep voodoo, penditures of President Bush and Bill chicken feathers and the American Clinton. dream." But Perot adviser and son-in-law Warmed by the friendly atmos- Clay Mulford said that when "soft- phere of the King show, and clearly money" contributions to the two encouraged by some of the callers, political parties are counted along including actress-singer Cher, who with federal government matching endorsed him, Perot appeared far funds received by the Bush and more relaxed and confident than he Clinton campaigns, the Republican did three days ago during a stormy and Democratic presidential cam- news conference in Dallas. That paigns outspent Perot by close to 3 event, in which Perot lashed out at to 1 for the entire year. reporters for what he called their Mulford called the current cam- "twisted" stories, revolved in part paign finance system "alarming" and around Perot's inability to provide said it was rigged in favor of the two proof of charges he made Sunday on major parties. As a result, he said, CBS's "60 Minutes" that Republican Perot favors a thorough overhaul, "dirty tricks operatives" had plotted including the elimination of soft-mon- to smear his daughter with a doc- ey contributions to the two major tored photograph, disrupt his wed- parties, the abolition of political ac- ding and wiretap his business office. tion committees and strict limitations Perot repeated tonight that he of $1,000 each on all individual con- accepts the denials of White House tributions to candidates. and Republican campaign officials of The proposal to eliminate soft any involvement in such dirty money is roughly similar to proposals put forward in Congress including a soft money during the general elec- bill that Bush vetoed this year. tion campaign, and Clinton had ben- Wealthy individuals can evade the efited from $26.1 million in Dem- $1,000 contribution limit to pres- ocratic soft money Mulf to idential candidates by giving unlim- leased a chart showing that, when ited amounts to the Republican and the soft money and publicly fi- Democratic parties. Corporate do- nanced figures are added, the Bush nations, which are banned to indi- and Clinton campaigns each bene- vidual candidates, also make up part fited from roughly $167 million in of the soft money. The two parties expenditures apiece compared to can invest these contributions on $59.9 million spent by Perot this generic, party-oriented advertising year as of this week. that, while not specifically mention- Although such disclosures have ing the presidential nominees, in- been routine for major party pres- directly benefits them by encour- idential candidates in recent years, gaing voters to cast Republican or Perot concluded that releasing his Democratic ballots. tax and medical records at this late By Mulford's calculations, based date would only "deflect" attention on FEC reports, Bush had benefited from the major issues, campaign from $38.6 million in Republican spokeswoman Sharon Holman said. Hillary Clinton and the Laws of the Campaign No Longer a Liability, She's Making a Quieter Case By Donnie Radcliffe She's almost laughing, but not quite. She's playing her the Woman, everybody's favorite target for all that's Washington Post Staff Writer part: the tough lawyer. And enjoying it. dangerous about being independent, smart, impatient, "We liberated him," shouted another. articulate, outspoken, ambitious-and while she's at it, a WILSON, N.C. he donkey did it. One report, unconfirmed, was that the ragged photogs three-fer: wife, mother and successful corporate lawyer. T had "liberated" this symbol of the Democratic Party from By any standard, Hillary Clinton has been a handful for "The highlight of my birthday," said Hillary deep in the heart of Jesse Helms country-the front America to deal with. Clint n of the life-size papier-mache animal that steps of the Raleigh City Hall-and given it to Clinton in had her trying to stifle a laugh. Yet Clinton has made it through to the end. Past all celebration of her 45th birthday. They'd surprised her last spring's scrutiny as the would-be co-president, the Did it have 8 name? Could she touch it? Where'd they with it while she was working the rope line, shaking find it? feisty political helpmate, the wronged wife, the hands and hugging babies. disavowing cookie baker. Past the summer of GOP "I want to know if I'm receiving stolen goods," she "They just crack me up," she said of these chroniclers discontent when a political convention focused an said, arching an eyebrow-you know, the way any of her every move. And it seemed that this woman who amazing amount of energy on the opponent's wife as skeptical lawyer might lay it on the line to prospective was once viewed as unapproachable cracked them up as "that dowdy feminazi" with views so "radical" they clients of somewhat dubious repute. well. FRIDAY,OCTOBER 30, 1992 threatened to untie the very apron strings of American "We can't say," yelled back one of the photo-dogs from momism. Past, too, the discarded preppy headbands and a Clinton-Gore campaign bus in the 16-vehicle caravan mannish suits on the way to the crucial final perception: that was cruising across the state. It hasn't been easy being the Woman in this Year of See HILLARY, B4, Col. 1 FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 Hillary cifics of her own priorities other thar. that they will relate to maternal and child health care. "Among Bill's priorities is dealing Clinton with the health care system, and I am particularly adamant that whateve: we do if we had a decent prenata care system and early childhooc health care system we would be sav- HILLARY, From B1 ing money in a relatively short period a softer, gentler, warmer Hillary of time," she said. who waves a lot these days but no But she also shows a keen aware- longer makes them, and with whom ness of just what sort of world of lim- not just feminists but many voters can its her husband may be buying into. feel more comfortable-whether they "Nobody really knows what the finan- intend to pull the lever for her husband cial situation is," she said. "There's 2 or not. great concern that Bul will be elected If the political process has brought president and begin to see a great un- her to this, then so be it At this point raveling, which is always a dange: in the campaign, the polls indicate she when you assume an office but seems is no longer a liability to Bill Clinton: in particularly acute now because of the a variety of surveys, her "negatives" disarray in this government. The ex- are down from their startlingly high traordinary spectacle of agencies in- levels of the spring. She's no Barbara Hillary Clinton and daughter Chelsea smiling for a campaign photograph vestigating one another and pointing Bush. but she doesn't appear to be a fingers at one another suggest tha: drag on the ticket either. It is a gratify- the political process has succeeded in Change" buses cutting a 200-mile there's just a lot that is not right an. ing shift accomplished by a determined reining in women a few steps. swath between Winston-Salem and we probably don't even know abou: woman who's been through what oth- But Hillary Clinton sees the conflict Kinston was a hard-driving effort to it." ers might regard as a devastating ex- as inevitable and also momentary- erase the tire tracks of the Bush ma- perience but which she calls "remark- "some last step" of symbolic impor- chine that had rolled through a few Cat's Out of the Bag ably positive." tance that hasn't happened before be- days earlier. "You go back and look at the kinds of cause we haven't had people contend- We may be the only state in the Chelsea Clinton, 12, had no trouble things that happened this year," she ing for the presidency who were born union that goes for Bush," fretted Sam at all putting away a gigantic slice of said the other day, "and so much of it after World War II, who were really Ervin's cousin, Burgess McSwain, her mother's chocolate birthday cake, part of this change." who drove miles to wait, like others even with the reporters coming out of was not about me or my husband. so far as know and care about our life to- For all the criticism, she says, she's the walls at Robinson's Restaurant in among the already converted. at one gether. It was politically motivated. off been gratified by the people who've of the "imprompar" stops in towns Greensboro. Between bites, Hillary reached out to identify with her with where statues of Confederate soldiers kept a motherly eye trained. finally base. You have to learn how to take signs like, "Stay at Home Moms for political attacks seriously but not per- tower above courthouse squares; dispatching an aide to run interfer- Hillary." ence. sonally 30 that you don't let them inter- where words carved in granite remind "I think they hope that with Bill and fere with who you are." that "on fame's eternal camping "We have Chelsea out because we Al and Tipper and me there will be ground their silent tents are figured the last bus trip would be a What she did take seriously was how people who understand what's going spread and where cafeterias like special occasion," Hillary told owner those attacks appeared from the out- on in the country right now at the very Ruth's never did have a "g" on the Roosevelt Robinson. side, and thus it was her outside that basic level, and have a grasp about the "Home Cookin" sign painted above the Sarah Gore, 13, was out, too, and she changed. "I knew that what was challenges that families are facing and front door. self-consciously standing together at being said wasn't true. I took it seri- that women in particular are confront- Talkin' Southern wasn't all that times, or sitting on a lawn in front of ously because obviously if people ing." hard. Illinois-born, Wellesley- and the candidates, they giggled and whis- thought that, or if the political system Yale-educated Hillary Clinton learned pered and had what Hillary later de- was being manipulated by people who Buscapades long ago to drop her g's with the best scribed as a "2 different take on it, the wanted people to think that, one had to If she's playing a role, she seems to of 'en In remarks that turned out to kinds of things they see. At one point take that seriously." be her longest of the day, she apolo- Tipper and I were up there laughing She thought all the Hillary bashing be playing it with ease. That's easiest gized for being late and recalled the just watching Chelsea and Sarah in the was "sad, at first," but the intensity left to see in the looseness on the cam- her surprised. then hurt. Once she ana- paign bus. Comic relief is the escape time they vowed not to stop ever crowd." lyzed why GOP strategists went after valve in this grueling cocoon of cam- again because they were runnin' three According to her mother, Chelsea paign madness. "You sort of got to de- hours behind. is well aware of what's happening and her, she came to the conclusion they velop a sense of humor," said Bill Clin- "All of a sudden we heard there what would happen if BII Clinton wins were scared. "You don't spend two or three days at a national political con- ton the other day when the were about 250 to 300 people up in a "But my concern is just giving her the countdown to Election Day '92 had rest stop hopin' the buses would stop. chance to have ber own life, to be able vention beating up on someone unless you're scared. It was a deliberate strat- dropped below the 200-hour mark. Bill said, 'What are we going to do? to grow up as normally as possible if "Sometimes you laugh just to keep and everybody said, Well, we just she's living in the White House. And egy. In kind of a backhanded way was from crying." Tipper Gore did more going to have to go right by them. Bill that's what I'm going to be focused on complimented. I figured. Wow! Listen didn't like that but finally agreed and if the day after the election we wake to this!" than bugh She had a whale of a good the buses were goin' by kind of slow up and that's what we have to start And she broke into bughter, just re- time aiming her camera and, at the membering how it struck her. Greensboro, N.C., airport one night, and he was wavin' out the window and planning." said Hillary. aiming her squirt gun at Al Gore's all of a sudden he saw a sign that a What she hasn't focused on is Ultimately she found comfort in a man was holdin' that said Give us Socks, Chelsea's 215-year-old cat who strange quarter: Richard Nixon. She aides spilling off his plane onto the tar- mac. She scored bull's-eyes right and eight minutes and we'll give you eight is not at afi "standoffish or aloof but recalled that the first person to attack left, including one on a hapless report- years' and Bill said, Stop the bus!" warm and loving and noble" and made her Out of the Blue before even the er watching from the sidelines. The You could call it a kind of stand-by- them all feel better when they got New Hampshire primary heated up was Nixon. next day, during 2 hoke-it-up photo op your-man story. him-even if Hillary and Bill are aller- aboard their customized bus, Tipper gic to him. Certainly, it could have been be- and Hillary climbed onto the laps of Early Hillary The interview took an unexpected cause "be never forgets anything" and their spouses for the benefit of still 1 mean," said Hillary Clinton, "if all turn when she asked if what a Secret she had once been a staff attorney on the Senate staff that studied his im- photographers. (Video photo-dogs I thought was going to happen was Service agent told them-that there boycotted the session because their are mice and rats in the White peachment in 1974. But she preferred moving into the White House and go- reporters were barred.) ing to Camp David for weekends, hav- House possibly be true. to believe the other Noxon, the grand "This is home away from home," ing a ceremonial role, I think that DEF And if Barbara Bush really did find old political analyst who saw abead of said Hillary. ther Bill nor I nor the Gores would be a rat doing the backstroke in the others that "there was a lot going on "If we win this thing," added her there. I mean, that is just not what's swimming pool? under the surface of this country and husband, "we're going to park this bus at stake in this election." Maybe it was visions of Socks to people were amxious for change." out behind the White House." There. She's said it. In an inter- the rescue but suddenly Hillary "He was launching a preemptive at- Winning "this thing" is still any- view, some of the early-1992 version cheered "Yeah, Socks! Socks might be tack," abe says, "to try and in some: body's guess. of Hillary comes out. She may not be the happiest human-or animal-be- way denigrate my husband because Hillary tries not to think about it making headlines anymore, but she ing moving to Washington. I wonder if he's unafraid of smart and intelligent very much, or about how in less than a has not retreated into a shell. Recent we could show him pictures of rats?" women and really believes that women week now her life may never again be impressions aside, her words make Buoyed by the news that there ought to have opportunities to serve." the same. "Partly because I'm refuc- clear that anyone who thinks she hasn't been a First Cat since Amy True or not, Our gainers strengtift tant to speculate tike that. It's like a would be a passive First Lady isn't Carter oved at 1000, and that cai jur- where one can. no-hit game. It's going well We feel paying close enough attention. ers of the country would probably feel The outcome of this kind of Hillary we're getting the campaign message Unlike traditional political wives of enfranchised again, she regained her bashing has been one of the great sub- across and I just don't even want to the past. she has no misgivings about composure as campaign strategist. themes of the campaign, turning the imagine" anything beyond the mo- talking issues. She has never stopped "Exit Poll," she said, playing the race on one level into an ongoing na- ment. being one of her husband's key advis- poll-taker. "Did you vote for the Clin- tional seminar on the role of women In Helmsland (renamed "Hillary- ers and when she wants to, she speaks tons because they have a cat? Looking at the newer, quieter Hillary, land" on oversized birthday buttons with authority. She also intends to The potential was mind-boggling. some might even conclude that the passed out by family pal Brook Shear- have her own issues, though she "I love it!" she cried, convilsed by outcome of this debate has been that er), the Clinton-Gore "Road to claims she hasn't determined the spe- laughter. "Oh, god, love it" USA TODAY FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992 GOP campaign has abused 'character' issue Using innuendo and ing Joe McCarthy tactics to suggest trai- OUR VIEW torous motives in Clinton's 1969 trip to personal attacks to Moscow, utterly without support. describe a candidate's character GOP chairman Rich Bond and oth- has no place in this campaign. er Republicans falsely tying Hillary Clin- President Bush is right. ton's scholarly essays on children's Character plays a big role in any elec- rights with the usurpation of parental tion. Trust is a useful measure of any rights. candidate, par- By the time these sorry episodes tailed ticularly those ELECTION '92 off this month, the State Department seeking the high- was digging through its files for dirt on An occasional senes est office of the Clinton's mother. Unbelievable. land. All of this might be good entertain- But when "character" and "trust" - ment if no one took it seriously. But words that should apply to a person's some do, distracting attention from the ability and judgment to lead - become more crucial issues in this election. simply slogans to cover smear tactics Who will select the next Supreme that have little to do with the country's Court justice? Whose economic pro- future, it is the accuser whose character grams will get the country moving should be called into question. again? Which candidate is best suited to This year, the Bush/Quayle re-elec- spearhead our growth at home and secu- tion efforts, sanctioned and unsanc- rity around the world? tioned, win the smear title hands down. The candidates have given voters A smattering of examples: enough evidence to answer those and House Minority Whip Newt Ging- other questions that will decide the fate rich linking Woody Allen and Mia Far- of the nation. They differ widely. row's breakup to Clinton's views on Character, too, is an issue in this elec- family values. tion. But what voters should keep in California congressman Robert mind on Election Day is that trivia and Dornan - and later Bush himself - us- innuendo are little help in defining it. Character is the issue OPPOSING VIEW Character is to choose the principled right over the critical. In unprincipled wrong. the Oval Office, character alone Character is the central element gov- shapes the tough decisions. erning our personal conduct. The I threads of all our characters weave the All U.S. presidents have found the fabric of our national character. Oval Office a lonely place. President Character answers the nation's call to Harry Truman said that's where the arms or, alternatively, claims conscien- buck stops. tious-objector status, takes up the med- Yet there's another ic's medical bag and shares the danger of lonely office: the vot- the battlefield. Character presses on in ing booth. There the the face of enemy fire. buck stops with the Character admits mistakes without American people. In dissembling or shifting blame to others. lonely isolation, we Character tells the whole truth up front. each make our choice Character provides the grit to take firm affecting the nation's destiny for the next By William Ham- stands and not promise everything to ilton, a synuicat- four years. ed columnist and Character keeps the wedding vows In representative former Republi- when temptation flowers. Character government. we hand can campaign consultant. keeps the White House from becoming the scepter of power the Penthouse. If character doesn't mat- to the candidate we trust will do right by ter. why did we go through the agony of us and by the nation. That trúst rests Watergate? Or. as Rush Limbaugh put upon our judgment of the character of it, "If character doesn't matter, why isn't the president we choose because, in the Ted Kennedy president?" loneliness of the Oval Office. it is charac- On Tuesday we decide if character ter and character alone that shapes the counts. We'll learn something about the tough decisions, that enables a president American character as well. USA TODAY FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30. 1992 Hell in a handbasket not in election cards families. Never mind the caustic closing campaign rhetoric. The I have seen children be- their ability to support their jobless men, who had lost hope flicker from the eyes of I watched the flame of erable in the midst of plenty. watched other people be mis- For 12 years, I have dren, our families. USA will not go to hell in a handbasket no matter who wins the presidential election. Many of you fear wrack or ruin if your candidate loses. dead-end street, for our chil- spirited downhill course, a chance to veer from a mean- That ticket may be our last board is a ticket - a vote. this Tuesday. All we need to other kind of train coming For many of us, there is an- throwing him off the train. voted in 25 years. I felt like this week who said he had not I met a guy on the subway Not likely. Here's why: The other contenders aren't as bad as you may think. Yours probably isn't quite as good as you believe. I'm inviolably independent politically, as all journalists should be. I don't tell anyone how I vote. And don't suggest to anyone how they should. More and more journalists and newspapers see it that way. This year, about one-third of the USA's dailies will not en- dorse, including some biggies those in power went on with or shot down in the streets, as tossed onto human junk piles, come disposable, abused, COLUMNIST REYNOLDS BARBARA like USA TODAY. Inform and debate, but don't dictate. From that objective perspec- tive, there's more comfort than concern about Tuesday's elec- tion cards. I've watched presidents closely since 1948. As a journal- AL ist, I've visited in the White House with every president NEUHARTH since Eisenhower. Kennedy. Johnson. Nixon. Ford. Carter. USA TODAY FOUNDER Reagan. Bush. I've respected some more than others. Liked some more. But considered each worthy of the Oval office. cold cement for pillows. In and in railway stations with slept in cars, under bridges heartbreak as more families watched on the verge of small towns and big cities and walked through the streets of As an avid traveler, I have poor or sick and needed jobs. problem was that they were and hopeless when their real ple be labeled as underclass watched new groups of peo- better than that. joy rides. I have swallowed hard as I And I knew we could do I, the taxpayers, paid for their. from the S&L while you and gaining tax breaks, stealing I have watched the rich business as usual. Our political system has produced at least two qualified candidates every four years. Sometimes more. This year, qualities of the top three vary widely. Each has his own very distinct and different philosophy, policy and style. That gives you a clear-cut choice. Depending on who wins, here's how our course is likely to curve: Bush: A bit more to the right. Clinton: A little to the left. Perot: Occasionally weaving from side to side. chance. His message: The Bill Clinton deserves a How wrong I was. But no president has run us off the road in over 200 years. Our checks and balances control that. So the USA can't lose Tuesday. er in a kinder, gentler nation. believed that Bush would ush- Four years ago, I actually the answer. change. George Bush is not This nation cries out for as the yachts. boats, the leaky ones as well nomic plan that will lift all ready to unify around an eco- want hope not hate. They are whites, browns and blacks tility when the polls show I am tired of the racial hos- tion could do better than that. no place to go. I knew the na- sleeping on the sidewalk with woman with one leg. sick, If your choice wins, celebrate and enjoy. If not, relax and New York City, I saw a young Clinton can put the nation back on the right track keep up your cause. Either way, if you vote you win. FEEDBACK Other views on the election rection. "I disagree. Clinton and Gore represent a new genera- tion of leadership for America. Four more years of George Bush would be a disaster for America." this time going in the right di- chance to get moving again, ashamed. - Ron Brown, Democratic National Committee "There is a stark contrast between Bush's vision and his opponent's. People need those On Tuesday, we have a good about tomorrow, not dreams than fears, to feel I want to have -more able, uncaring, unproductive. been stuck too long anmov- where, as a nation, we have ment can unclog the tracks fixed by politics, but govern- Not all problems can be the welfare moms. dents, politicians, as well as one, the corporations, stu- winner if it includes every- pay back. That message is a will help you, but you have to want a chance, his programs free rides are over. If you ences and when they do, they'll support President Bush." - Tony Mitchell, Republican National Committee "A president is never the savior we hope he be, but he doesn't have the power to screw things up the way we fear. Norm Ornstein, American Enterprise Institute you of Mayland b R SEAL S OF THE STATE ECCH 8992E08 CO. 361000£ 01088 (BSNOH BLIMM *** Homestead Fla Tent City FEMA Disaster FEMA 6 OF FIVE III Disaste FEM V91 9859508 NC 26130E0 010HE asnoh 311HM WHISE Endorcement by you Schafee of Maryland OFFICIAL WHITE HOUSE PHOTO 500CT92 OU P037673 -18A St Louis Missouri 18 BUSH B BU (1) NOT, THE AMERICAN PEOPLE, WILL!! WHO'S GOING TO PAY THE BILL, BILL? OFFICIAL WHITE HOUSE PHOTO 3000792 DU P037669 -017