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Friday, October 30, 1992
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Friday, October 30, 1992
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Originally Processed With FOIA(s):
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2009-0166-S
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MARKER
This is not a textual record. This is used as an
administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential
Library Staff.
Record Group/Collection:
George H.W. Bush Presidential Records
Collection/Office of Origin:
Office of the President
Series:
Daily Files
Subseries:
OA/ID Number:
90732
Folder ID Number:
90732-001
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Friday, October 30, 1992
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35
2
6
O
WHITE HOUSE COMMCTR URC-112
FRI 30 OCT 92 20:34
PG.02
daily 10/30
PM-Weinberger,220
House, Sitteriam, this
Weinberger
10-30 0248
PM unberger, 220
URGENT
new Weinberger Indictment Contradiots Bush on Itan-Contra
BV LARRY MARGASAK-
Associated Press Writer*
NA HINGTON (AP) President Bu
account of his role in the
intra affair was contradict
jay in a second indictment of
Defense Secretary Cashar W
berger.
indictment, based on Weinberger's handwritten notes, said
Bush attended d Jan. 7, 1986, meeting where President Reagan
top aides discussed a straicht swap of arms for hostages
an
something Bush says he did
know about.
Fush has always maintained that he
w the Reagan White House
inding arms to Iran and knew that
ne hostages were being
from Lebanon, but didn't realize Lue U.S. was engaging in
hostagee deals.
nold no didn't know until mid December 1900 about the aims
hootoges trados.
dictment also reveals that Bush knew from the same meeting
and Shultz opposed the Ir arm) sales.
No notes directly contradict such on that point:
Milt with president, Shultz, Poindexter, Bill Casey, Bd Meose,
tice. President decided to ao with Tsraoli-Iranian offer
release Cut 5 hostages in return for sale of 4000 TOWs to Iran
sraol Genree Shultz + I opposed Bill Y, Ed Mecce t VP
favored 38 did Poindoxter.
Cabey was CIA director, Meese the attorney eral and
dexter the national security adviser at the time.
MAKE
-10-92 1433EST
BUSH LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY - PRESERVATION
WHITE HOUSE COMMCTR
THU 29 OCT 92 02:56
PG.01
TIME OF TRANSMISSION
TIME OF RECEIPT
WHITE HOUSE
SITUATION ROOM
PRECEDENCE: IMMEDIATE
RELEASER: aB
PRIORITY
ROUTINE
DTG:
290234Z OCT 92
MESSAGE NO.
8
CLASSIFICATION UNCLASSIFIED
PAGES 5
FROM RobeRT E. GRAdy
(NAME)
(PHONE NUMBER)
(ROOM NO.)
MESSAGE DESCRIPTION
TO (AGENCY)
DELIVER TO
DEPT/ROOM NO.
PHONE NUMBER
WARREN / MR. BAKER
MR. BATES
REMARKS:
WRITE HOUSE Connorn
OFFICE OF ENSIDENT STATE UNITED
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20503
1
October 28, 1992
MEMORANDUM TO SECRETARY JAMES BAKER
DAVID BATES
FROM:
Robert E. Grady
Paul Gilman
Attached is the Central Valley Project (CA) side-by-side and
explanatory note as requested.
daily 10/30
COMPARISON OF TITLE XXXIV PROVISIONS IN H.R. 429
SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
1.
PG.03
Water for Fish & Wildlife - Miller-Bradley would have dedicated 1.5 million acre-feet
of Central Valley Project (CVP) water for fish and wildlife purposes. This is about
20 percent of the total annual CVP water supply of 6 to 8 million acre-feet. The 1.5
million acre-feet could not have been reduced by more than 25 percent for dry years
under any circumstances. Most farmers and urban users would have been subjected to
greater water supply reductions for dry years. The final bill allows the up to
25 percent reduction for dry years to occur under more circumstances, and authorizes
further reductions if public health or safety is affected.
Note: Miller-Bradley was never a single, homogenous bill. The term is used here to
66:20 26 130 62 OH!
mean the "worst" version of each relevant provision.
2.
Citizen Suits - Miller-Bradley would have authorized any citizen -- environmentalist
or farmer -- to commence a civil suit, alleging a failure of the Secretary to perform
duties under the act.
3. Water Auction - The Miller-Bradley would have authorized the Secretary of the
Interior to auction 100,000 acre-feet of CVP water for 20 years to municipal and
industrial (M&I) users based exclusively on the highest bid.
4.
Contract Renewals - There are almost 300 water contracts within CVP. Interior signed
40-year, fixed-price contracts with water users as various facilities were completed.
The first group of contracts came up for renewal in 1989 in the Friant Unit of CVP
(on the San Joaquin River near Fresno), and are currently the subject of litigation
in Federal district court.
Miller-Bradley would have prohibited the renewal of any contracts prior to completion
of an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for CVP and a long list of additional
environmental requirements. Miller-Bradley would have only permitted 1-year interim
contracts pending EIS completion.
WHI TE HOUSE COMACTR
successive 2-year periods, if necessary) pending EIS completion.
requirements. The final bill also allows interim contracts for 3 years (and
upon request, following completion of the EIS, and a shorter list of environmental
The final version of the bill quarantees an initial 25-year contract renewal period
5.
New Contracts - Miller-Bradley would have prohibited any new contracts for water
additional water for existing CVP contractors, with the exception of the auction or of
users (i.e., for any water user without an existing contract for CVP water,
prohibited from signing by appropriation bill language. Included among them is 850
Interior to sign several proposed new contracts, which the Secretary has been
100,000 acre-feet discussed above). The final bill permits the Secretary of the
acre-feet Seymour. for the San Joaquin National Veterans' Cemetery supported by Senator
6.
Voluntary Water Transfers of CVP Water - Miller-Bradley would have authorized
voluntary water transfers subject to State law. Miller-Bradley contained less
stringent conditions on water transfers than Senator Seymour, whose version
bill essentially gave CVP water districts veto rights on any proposed transfer. The final
water-districts may veto transfers in excess of 20 percent of total water contracted
market-oriented (i.e, all transfers are subject to a right of first refusal, and
provides significant protection for farmers and local communities, but is more
from a given district).
7.
Water The Pricing - Miller-Bradley would have established an inverted block price system.
lowest price would have been in effect for the first 60 percent of contracted
bill, the lowest rate remains in effect for deliveries up to 80 percent of the
water, with prices increasing for each successive 20 percent increment. In the final
contracted increments. amount. Price increases go into effect for the remaining two 10 percent
budgets). based on a farmer's "ability-to-pay" (as calculated by Interior looking at farm
be In addition, there is a provision that the maximum price charged would
8.
Transfer CVP to State - At the request of Governor Wilson, the Department of the
nearly complete. The MOA would establish a 3-year process to further evaluate the
possible transfer of the CVP to the State. A draft Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) is
Interior and the Governor's Office in March 1992 initiated discussions concerning
would require Congressional authorization.
transfer issue, including specific terms and conditions and price. Actual transfer
-2-
Fril 30 Our IC 20121
ru.02
daily 10/30
FACT PAPER
200730 P5: 44
The Weinberger Additional Indictment
Key Foints:
-- The Weinberger note adds no new facts to the record.
-- Neither President Reagan nor then-Vice President Bush
held the view that this was a straight "arms for
hostages" proposal. Weinberger's note reflects his
perspective -- and adds nothing to the public testimony
he and Shultz gave more than five years ago. See, for
example, the detailed account on pages 201-203 of the
Congressional Report.
-- The President has claimed only that he didn't
understand at the time how strongly Shultz and
Weinberger opposed the Iran initiative, and did not
understand that there had been a "raging fight" over
it. Nothing in the note resolves this "failure of
communication."
-- The President has always acknowledged that he supported
President Reagan's decision to undertake the Iran
initiative.
Background:
Because the trial judge dismissed an obstruction of Congress
count from the Weinberger indictment, the Independent Counsel
restyled it as a false statement (18 U.S.C. 1001) -- not as
before, that he withheld his notes, but that he falsely claimed
he had made no notes of the meetings where the Iran initiative
was discussed. In fact, he had made the note of the January 7,
1986 meeting, which is quoted in the indictment. (He may have
made notes of other meetings, but the Independent Counsel chose
this one.)
Weinberger's note of the January 7, 1986 meeting reads as
follows:
"Met with President, Shultz, Poindexter, Bill Casey, Ed
Meese, in Oval Office - President decided to go with
Israeli-Iranian offer to release 5 hostages in return
for sale of 4000 TOWS to Iran by Israel - George Shultz
& I opposed - Bill Casey, Ed Meese & VP favored -- as
did Poindexter."
WHITE HOUSE COMMUTR
FRI 30 UCI IC 2:30
PG.01
daily 10/30
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
fire
October 30, 1992
MEMORANDUM FOR SECRETARY BAKER
MARLIN FITZWATER
ROBERT B. ZOELLICK
From:
Robert Economic E. Facts Grady BG
Re:
Attached is a memo from Chairman Boskin. Key points for the
President (some of which are not included in the memorandum) are:
-
Clinton's charts left out the early Truman period (negative
growth) and the late Bush period (positive growth). [This
is the main import of the Boskin memo.]
-
The Bush record is far better than the most recent
Democratic President:
-
In the 1978 to 1982 recession caused by President
Carter's policies, the economy actually shrunk in real
terms. In contrast, the economy has grown by about
4.4% in real terms from the 1988 average GDP -- despite
the intervening recession.
-
1980 was the single greatest year in post-war history
of loss of average family income. Real mean family
income fell by 3.4% in 1980.
-
Inflation in 1980 averaged 13.5 percent. This year, it
is running at less than 3 percent.
-
President Carter's policies caused interest rates to
rise to over 21 percent. Today, they are just above 6
percent.
-
In this global slowdown, the U.S. is doing better than
either Japan or Germany:
-
In the last quarter, the U.S. grew twice as fast as
Japan. Real economic growth in Germany was negative.
-
The U.S. has surpassed Japan and Germany as the world's
number one exporter.
-
The U.S. has the highest per capita income and the most
productive workers in the world.
-
We must increase jobs and economic growth still more:
-
The Clinton plan will destroy jobs.
-
The Bush plan will increase jobs.
WH1 IE HOUSE COMMCTR
FRI 30 OCT 92 22:31
PG.02
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20500
October 29, 1992
THE CHAIRMAN
MEMORANDUM TO SECRETARY JAMES A. BAKER, III
FROM:
MICHAEL J. BOSKIN
RE:
Clinton Charts from Larry King Show
0
Since the President is due to appear on the Larry King Show Friday night, it
is extremely important that he have a response to the Clinton charges/charts
from the Wednesday night show with Governor Clinton. This memo and the
attached charts are a first cut at doing so.
0
One of Governor Clinton's charts purported to show that economic growth per
person under President Bush has been the worst of any post-WWII President
and had been negative. This chart was correct, except for two very important
points.
The data used to represent President Bush's term conveniently ended in
1991 and ignored the stronger growth experienced thus far in 1992.
The data used to represent President Truman's term conveniently began
in 1948, thereby omitting his first term, which included two years of
falling output as the economy adjusted to the post World War II
demobilization.
o
The CEA attempted in Chart 1 (attached) to duplicate Clinton's chart. The
measure of economic growth used in Clinton's chart was not specified. The
most straightforward measure would be growth in GDP and, in fact, this
tracks closely, though not exactly, with Clinton's chart.
Chart 2 (attached) corrects for the two omissions from the Clinton chart.
-
Using the most recent data, specifically, including the first three
quarters of 1992, shows output per person to have been approximately
flat--not declining as Clinton's chart showed--over the Bush
Administration.
The first term of the Truman Administration is included so that the
data begin in 1945 rather than in 1948. The economy suffered a
wrenching decline in 1945-1946 as the U.S. went through a dramatic
2
defense build down--just as our economy today is going through a
defense build-down. This chart helps draw the parallel between the
short-term economic difficulties of winning the Second World War and
winning the Cold War.
In brief summary, in answer to the charges that the Bush Administration has
had the worst growth per person, and has even been negative, of any since
Herbert Hoover, the President can confidently say this is clearly wrong:
Growth has been too sluggish in my first term, but it was much worse in
Truman's first term, and there is an important parallel between them--in both
cases we had to work through the difficulties of a major defense build-down.
And as in President Truman's second term, we are now poised for more rapid
and sustained growth.
Attachments
Chart 1 Clinton's Version:
As of 10/29/92
Real Per Capita GDP Growth
Post World War II Presidents
Percent change, annual rate
5
4
3.8
3.6
3
2.4
2.0
1.9
2
1.7
1
0.6
0.2
0
-0.3
-1
Truman* Eisenhower Kennedy
Johnson
Nixon
Ford
Carter
Reagan
Bush**
Source: Department of Commerce.
Note: Figures for Truman, Eisenhower use GNP in 1982 dollars.
*
Figures for Truman 1948-52, ignoring decline in first term.
** 1989-91 only, omitting the growth of 1992.
Chart 2 Corrected Version:
As of 10/29/92
Real Per Capita GDP Growth
Post World War II Presidents
Percent change, annual rate
6
3.8
4
3.6
2.4
2.0
1.7.
1.9
2
0.6
0.2
0.0
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-7.9
-10
Truman
Truman Eisenhower Kennedy
Johnson
Nixon
Ford
Carter
Reagan
Bush
(First term) (Second term)
Source: Department of Commerce.
Note: Figures for Bush use Blue Chip consensus forecast for fourth quarter 1992.
Figures for Truman, Eisenhower use GNP in 1982 dollars.
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20500
THE CHAIRMAN
October 29, 1992
MEMORANDUM TO SECETARY JAMES A. BAKER, III
FROM:
MICHAEL J. BOSKIN the
RE:
Useful Chart on the Economy for the Larry King Show
o
The President will probably want to have his own charts for Friday night's
Larry King Show. The attached chart might be helpful. It shows that the
economy is improving steadily and is on the right track. It compares the
three quarters of recession with the slow but positive growth in the last three
quarters of 1991 and the stronger growth in first three quarters of 1992. The
clear visual implication is that the economy is growing and that the economy
is on the right track.
This graph should not be used to argue that the economy is growing
strongly, or that the President is satisfied with this growth.
Attachment
Improving and on the Right Track
Change in GDP
(Annual Rate)
10/29/92
3
2.4
2
1.2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-2.9
Three Quarters
Last Three Quarters
First Three Quarters
of Recession
of 1991
of 1992
-4
Source: Department of Commerce
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a1076reute
И W AM-BUSH-IRANARMS 10-30 0158
ZAMARIA
AM-BUSH-IRANARMS
BUSH SAYS NOTHING NEW IN IRAN-ARMS CHARGE
536
RACINE, Wis., Reuter - President Bush said Friday there WES
nothing new in a note that put him at III 1986 White House meeting
where the arms for hostages deal with Iran was discussed.
The note From Former Defense Secretary Casper Weinberger was
released by the Iran-Contra independent counsel's office Friday
as part of a new indictment against Weinberger.
Democrat Bill Clinton said the note contradicted Bush's
claim that he was ' out of the loop'' about the Iran-Contra
affair, but Bush rejected Clinton's charge.
''It isn't anything new,' Bush said in an interview on
Cable News Network's `Larry King Live That's all been
testified to over and over again. It is absolutely absurd.
Bush said he had said many times that he supported President
Reagan's actions in selling arms to Iran but did not know about
the details, such as diverting money from the arms sales to the
Contras fighting the Sandanistas in Nicaragua.
REUTER
Reut21:21 10-30
SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 19-30-92 ;10:24PM ;
Date: 10/30/92 Time: 21:57
Weinberger Notes Contradict Bush Statements on Iran-Contra
WASHINGTON (AP) A new indictment of former Defense Secretary
Caspar W. Weinberger on Friday contradicted President Bush's claim
he never knew that arms were being traded for hostages in the
Iran-Contra affair or that two Cabinet members were opposed to the
deal.
Bush claimed there was nothing new in the indictment, the timing
of which he called "peculiar." Aides noted that it was revealed
four days before the presidential election.
Democrat Bill Clinton said the indictment showed Bush "has not
been telling the truth'' about what he knew of the Iran-Contra
affair.
"This is the smoking gun, said Clinton's running mate, Sen.
Al Gore.
But Bush said, "If there is a smoking gun out there, I'd have
been hauled up by one of those Senate committees" or the
Iran-Contra prosecutors long before. Prosecutors, however,
discovered the notes only last year, long after the congressional
inquiries ended.
"I have told the truth, Bush insisted on CNN's '`Larry King
Live.
The indictment was based on Weinberger's handwritten notes of a
Jan. 7, 1986, meeting in which President Reagan, then-Vice
President Bush, Cabinet members and presidential aides discussed a
straight swap of arms for hostages with Iran.
The indictment, obtained by the independent counsel
investigating the Iran-Contra scandal, maintained that Bush knew
from that meeting that Weinberger and former Secretary of State
George Shultz opposed the Iranian arms sales.
Weinberger's note said:
"Met with president, Shultz, Poindexter, Bill Casey, Ed Meese,
in oval office. President decided to go with Israeli-Iranian offer
to release our 5 hostages in return for sale of 4000 TOWs to Iran
by Israel George Shultz + I opposed Bill Casey, Ed Meese + VP
favored as did Poindexter.'
TOWs are antitank missiles.
Bush has said he knew the White House was sending arms to Iran
and that some hostages were being freed from Lebanon.
But he said, on ABC-TV's Nightline on June 9, 1988, it "never
became clear to me'' that there was an arms-for-hostages swap until
he was briefed in December 1986 a month after the operation
became public by the chairman of the Senate Intelligence
Committee.
He reiterated that Friday.
In a television interview in Racine, Wis., hours after the
indictment was announced, Bush said, ''There's nothing
contradictory in there of what I've said ... I know nothing
contradicts what I've said under oath. So it's a little flurry
here."
Casey was CIA director, Meese the attorney general and John
Poindexter the national security adviser at the time.
Bush told The Washington Post on Aug. 6, 1987: "If I'd have sat
there and heard George Shultz and cap express it (opposition)
strongly, maybe I would have had a stronger view. But when you
don't know something, it's hard to react.
...
We were not in the
loop.'
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;# 4
And in his own 1987 autobiography, ``Looking Forward, Bush
wrote: "As it turned out, George Shultz and Cap Weinberger had
serious doubts, too. If I had known that and asked the President to
call a meeting of the NSC, he might have seen the project in a
different light, as a gamble doomed to fail. The NSC is the
National Security Council.
In a separate television interview in Wisconsin, Bush changed
the emphasis from those earlier assertions. "I did know of the
objections,' he said flatly for the first time, adding, "but I
didn't know how strongly.'
"I knew they had reservations, Bush said of Shultz and
Weinberger. "I didn't know there was a raging fight ...
They
weren't shouting and yelling, Bush said of the two Cabinet
secretaries.
Bush spokesman Marlin Fitzwater maintained to reporters on Air
Force One, flying from a campaign stop in St. Louis to Milwaukee,
that the only legally questionable part of the Iran-Contra plan was
the diversion of proceeds from the Iran arms sales to the Contra
rebels in Nicaragua, and Bush ''didn't know about the diversion of
funds.'
Clinton, who has made Bush's truthfulness about the Iran-Contra
affair an issue, said the indictment "clearly shows that President
Bush has not been telling the truth when he says he was out of the
loop. He said it shows that Bush "knew and approved of President
Reagan's secret deal to swap arms for hostages.
''President Bush says this election is about trust, character
and judgment, Clinton said. "He has seriously called into
question those issues and now has to answer your questions on all
three counts,'
Fitzwater questioned the indictment's timing, just days before
the election, saying, "It does seem mighty suspicious that the
Clinton people are trying to turn it into something.
But Mary Belcher, spokeswoman for Independent Counsel Lawrence
E. Walsh, said there was no political motive involved.
White House Counsel C. Boyden Gray has written two articles in
recent weeks attacking the news media's coverage of Bush's role in
the arms-for-hostages issue.
In one article, Gray acknowledged that Bush had attended the
Jan. 7, 1986 meeting. But Gray then suggested that Bush was not
present for the part of the meeting when Shultz and Weinberger
voiced their objections.
Gray did this by relying on the recollection of Reagan, who has
stated that Bush wasn't present during the part of the meeting when
Shultz and Weinberger were complaining.
Weinberger was charged in the new grand jury indictment with one
felony count of making false statements to Congress about whether
he took notes relevant to its investigation of the Iran-Contra
affair. Including the new indictment, he faces trial Jan. 5 on
three false statement and two perjury charges.
Each charge carries a maximum penalty of five years in prison
and $250,00 in fines.
Bush has criticized Walsh's $32.8 million investigation as too
lengthy and too expensive. Walsh said in September that he was
closing the criminal investigation, but would proceed with the
prosecutions already begun.
AP-NY-10-30-92 2155EST
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;# 5
NETWORK NEWS SUMMARY
for Friday Evening, October 30, 1992
CLINTON CAMPAIGN/IRAN ARMS
ABC's Peter Jennings: The question of truth and character came up
again today for President Bush. The President has always denied
knowing that the Reagan-Bush Administration was trading arms for
hostages with the Iranians in 1986. "I was," he's always said,
"out of the loop." Today a note by then-Secretary of Defense
Weinberger puts Mr. Bush at an Oval Office meeting where a specific
deal, missiles for hostages, was discussed and approved. The note
says: "President decided to go with Israeli-Iranian offer to
release our five hostages in return for sale of 4,000 TOWs to
Iran by Israel. George Shultz and I opposed. Bill Casey, Ed Meese
and V.P. favored." The note was released by the special
prosecutor, who was seeking a new indictment of Mr. Weinberger for
lying to Congress about the Iran-contra affair. Gov. Clinton's
campaign said this was the smoking gun which shows the President
has been lying.
ABC's Chris Bury: This afternoon, the Governor used the Iran-
contra revelations to attack the President on the very issues Bush
has raised so often against him.
(Gov. Clinton: "President Bush says this election is about trust,
character and judgement. He has seriously called into question
those issues and now has to answer your questions on all three
counts.")
Clinton said questions about his behavior as a student cannot be
compared with questions about Bush's behavior as Vice President.
(Clinton: "He has vigorously attacked me for going to the Soviet
Union as a student or my actions with regard to the draft. This
deals with what he did as Vice President.")
For Clinton it was a full day of attack and counter-attack in
states that have become more important in a tighter race. In New
Jersey, Clinton noted the President yesterday had called Al Gore
crazy.
(Clinton on airport tarmac: "What's crazy is an Administration that
produces declining incomes, higher unemployment, 100,000 people a
month losing their health insurance.")
Later, at a rain-soaked rally in Pittsburgh, Clinton repeated
Bush's attack lines in the belief they will backfire.
(Clinton: "Then he called us 'bozos.' Well, all I can say is Bozo
makes people laugh and Bush makes people cry and America's going
to be laughing on Tuesday." Crowd cheers.)
The Clinton strategy has always assumed a tight race at the finish.
Now his fortunes hinge on turning out the right blocs of voters in
the right states. Campaign field workers are concentrating get out
the vote efforts among young people, blacks and women especially.
And the remaining tv budget is being spent in only 20 states where
the race is traditionally close. And Clinton plans to visit at
least 11 of them in the next three days during a marathon campaign
trip that will have him running nearly around the clock until
Tuesday.
(Clinton: "I'm gonna run like the underdog.")
From here on out, Clinton says his campaign is not political
science; it's combat.
(ABC-Lead)
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6
White House News Summary
Friday, October 30, 1992 --
2
NBC's Andrea Mitchell: The Iran-contra developments were a gift to
Bill Clinton, who has been struggling to counteract Bush's attack
on his credibility. Campaigning in Pittsburgh, Clinton quickly
interrupted his schedule to pounce on the revelations in the
Weinberger indictment.
(Gov, Clinton, to reporters: "Today's disclosure that President
Bush knew and approved of the arms for hostages deal with Iran not
only directly contradicts the President's claims, it diminishes the
credibility of the presidency. Secretary Weinberger's notes
clearly show that President Bush has not been telling the truth
when he says he was out of the loop.
In Maine, Al Gore also attacked.
(Sen. Gore, to reporters: "I think it's a real bombshell. The
memorandum is a real smoking gun. I think it devastates his claim
to the trust of the American people.")
The news comes at a good time for Clinton. His lead was narrowing.
He re-visited Pennsylvania, a state that should be solidly his, and
will return twice more in the next two days.
(TV Coverage of Clinton at rally, holding up hands of Sen. Wofford
and candidate Yaekel.)
(Reporter: "Are you worried about -- II
Clinton: "Well, let me say this. I think we have to win
Pennsylvania. I've worked hard here and we're gonna keep working
hard here. I'm gonna be back.")
Wherever he goes, his core message is that he represents a needed
change from Bush economics. He even worked it into a response to
Bush yesterday calling him Bozo and Al Gore crazy.
(Clinton to crowd: "I'll tell you what I think is crazy. I think
crazy is unemployment going up and incomes going down.'
Clinton has made light of Bush's latest attack, thinking they make
the President look foolish.
(Clinton: "Then he called us bozos. Well, all I can say is Bozo
makes people laugh and Bush makes people cry and America's gonna
be laughing on Tuesday." Crowd cheers.)
But Clinton is not laughing yet, not with the race tightening up
and the recent momentum in Bush's favor.
(Clinton: "We've gotta keep trying to break through with our
message of hope and change. To do that, I've got to press harder,
work longer, hit stronger. And that's what I intend to do. I'm
gonna run like the underdog.")
Running like an underdog means a nonstop 24-hour tour of at least
nine states on Monday and Tuesday, hammering Bush on the economy
and now Iran-contra.
(NBC-3)
CBS's Richard Threlkeld: All along, the Clinton campaign has been
trying to make an issue of George Bush's credibility. The
revelations today about Iran-contra played right into that theme.
(Gov. Clinton: "Today's disclosure that President Bush knew and
approved of the arms for hostages deal with Iran not only directly
contradicts the President's claims, it diminishes the credibility
of the presidency. It raises the question, first and most
importantly, about whether he's told the truth in this campaign and
for the last five years. And secondly, raises the whole question
of his support for the policy. But the far more important thing
is whether for five years he's been telling the American people
something about his conduct of foreign policy as Vice President
which was simply not true.")
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;# 7
White House News Summary
Friday, October 30, 1992 -- 3
Threlkeld continues:
(Sen. Gore: "We now have the evidence, the smoking gun memorandum,
the clear proof that what George Bush has said about his role in
creating one of the worst, most embarrassing catastrophes in
American foreign policy is simply untrue. How can he now ask the
American people to trust him?")
Despite this bombshell, the Clinton campaign still thinks this
election will turn on the issue of the economy, and that's the
issue that Clinton will be stressing in a campaign marathon the
next three days that will take him to more than a dozen states,
winding up at dawn on election day in Denver.
(CBS-2)
PRESIDENT'S CAMPAIGN/IRAN-CONTRA
CBS's Dan Rather: There is new written evidence tonight concerning
what President Bush knew and when he knew about the secret deal
that sent some of America's best missiles to Iran's Ayatollah
Khomeini. The grand jury evidence raises new questions about
whether Mr. Bush is telling the truth.
CBS's Rita Braver: An embarrassing revelation for George Bush.
Evidence released for the first time today contradicts his previous
statement that he was out of the loop on the Reagan
Administration's deal to ship arms to Iran in exchange for American
hostages. New charges returned in the ongoing case against former
Secretary Weinberger detail Weinberger's handwritten notes of a
meeting Bush attended January 7, 1986. Weinberger writes that
President Reagan decided to approve a scheme to release hostages
in return for the sale of 4,000 TOW missiles to Iran by Israel.
Weinberger opposed. Others, including Vice President Bush, favored
the deal.
(Anthony Lewis, columnist: "This is further very strong evidence
that George Bush knew all about the trading of arms for hostages,
which he has consistently denied.
For years, over and over again, Mr. Bush claimed neither he nor
President Reagan knew the details.
(Vice President Bush, December 3, 1986: "The President is
absolutely convinced that he did not swap arms for hostages."
President Bush has changed his story several times, and in fact
earlier this month appeared to admit he knew something about the
deal.
(Katie Couric: "That you knew about the arms-for-hostages."
President: "Yes, and have said so all along.")
But in that same interview, the President also denied being at key
meetings, including the one in the note released today, where
Weinberger opposed the trade. Columnist Lewis, who has been
tracking the President's Tran-contra connection, said it's ironic
Bush is trying to make Clinton's truthfulness an issue.
(Levis: "It's the President of the United States deliberately,
knowingly, forcefully telling you an untruth year after year, month
after month. That's going to destroy our faith in our political
system.")
The independent counsel insists the release of the note was timed
to meet the schedule for Weinberger's trial, not to embarrass the
President in the final days of the campaign.
SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 ;19-30-92 10:31PM ;
;# 8
White House News Summary
Friday, October 30, 1992 -- 4
Rather: The grand jury evidence appears to be at variance with what
then-Vice President Bush said in an interview on this broadcast in
1988. The President sent one of his spokesmen out today to say
there is nothing new in the Weinberger note.
CBS's Susan Spencer: The Bush campaign was both very angry and very
defensive about this story, saying that any claim that this somehow
contradicts Mr. Bush's assertion that he was not in the loop on the
arms sale is "pure political hogwash." Aides insisted the
President has answered every question on this, that nothing has
changed, and that everything in this memo was already known. So
when asked about the new memo, spokesman Fitzwater had this
somewhat odd reaction.
(TV Coverage of Fitzwater boarding plane, waving hat.)
The campaign may try to laugh it off, but Mr. Bush does not need
questions about his truthfulness while he's trying to convince
voters that he, unlike Clinton, is a man of honor and trust, a
point he made today at a surprisingly-small afternoon rally in
Missouri.
(President Bush: "What the President does reflects all around the
world. People judge our country to a large degree by that. They
are interlocked, and I don't believe that you can have a person in
the White House who's gonna try to be on all sides of every issue,
flip-flopping. The pattern of deceit is wrong for America." Aides
said none of this would lessen Mr. Bush's enthusiasm for the
character issue. Added Fitzwater: I hate to accuse anyone of
politics, but it does seem mighty suspicious that the Clinton
people would try to stir this thing up.
(CBS-Lead)
NEC's Tom Brokaw: And tonight, new material that directly
contradicts President Bush's claim that he was out of the loop in
the Iran-contra affair. A handwritten note from Weinberger.
NBC's John Cochran: In the final days of the campaign, the last
thing George Bush needs is a reminder of the arms-for-hostages deal
with Iran.
(TV Coverage of the President at podium being cheered by placard-
waving crowd.)
While Bush was trying to convince voters they can't believe Bill
Clinton, his own credibility was in question. Bush has always said
he was out of the loop of information when President Reagan
approved the arms-for-hostages swap. But a federal indictment of
Weinberger places Bush at a key meeting. Weinberger's notes about
a Jan. 7 1986 meeting say: "George Shultz and I opposed. Bill
Casey, Ed Meese and Vice President Bush favored." Two weeks ago,
Bush told Katie Couric he was not present.
(President Bush: "What was asked was whether I knew that Casper
Weinberger and Shultz, how strongly the opposed it. And I said to
that, there were two key meetings where they almost got into a
shouting match, I am told, that I did not attend. I don't believe
there's anything in there that's gonna contradict the $40 million
that has been spent on these hearings and I don't think anything -
- I know nothing contradicts what I have said under oath.")
The Bush camp hopes the Weinberger note will not slow down the
President's advance in some polls. He started the day in Al Gore's
home state, Tennessee, where independent polls show Bush very close
to Clinton.
SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 19-30-92 10:33PM ;
;# 9
White House News Summary
Friday, October 30, 1992 -- 5
Coohran continues:
(TV Coverage of the President shaking hands with cheering
supporters.)
But this afternoon, he was in Missouri, which Bush aides tell NBC
News is probably a lost cause.
(TV Coverage of the President autographing supporters' placards,
shaking hands with cheering crowd.)
The party's internal polls show Clinton leading by double digits.
Bush needs every state he can get, including Alaska's three votes.
Today, Bush may have picked up some support there by easing
restrictions on commercial development of Alaskan wetlands. The
Bush campaign figures most environmentalists will vote for Clinton
and Gore, whom Bush calls "Ozone."
(President at rally: "Hey, listen. Put Ozone in there and every
worker is going -- who depends on reasonable balance between the
environment and growth and business is gonna be out of work.")
But Bush did not repeat earlier references to his opponents as far
out or crazy or bozos. His aides want him to continue attacking
with gusto but not at the cost of sounding undignified or
unpresidential.
(NBC-2)
Jennings: President Bush's schedule is not quite so frantic, but
he will also be on the road full time from now until election day.
Mr. Bush started this day by accusing Clinton of what he calls
trample-down economics. He ended it by having to answer those new
questions about his role in Tran-contra.
ABC's Brit Hume: The wildness of yesterday's campaigning gave way
today to a more solemn and basic message from the President. He
stopped calling his opponents bozos, something even Mrs. Bush said
she disapproved of. Instead, he framed his direct appeals for
votes in terms of his own record.
(President Bush: "Ideas, action, character. I believe I. have
demonstrated, I certainly have tried to demonstrate all three, and
so I ask you, go to the polls on November 3rd, give me your vote
and let us lead America to new heights of prosperity." Cheering.)
In Nashville earlier, he made a similar plea based on his decisions
in sending U.S. forces into combat.
(President: "It is a responsibility I believe I have fulfilled with
honor and duty and above all, integrity." Applause. "That is your
call on November 3rd. Then the polls and the pundits don't matter
anymore, and, God bless 'em, it's all up to the people.
The President got a little boost today from Democratic Gov. Donald
Schaefer of Maryland, who came to St. Louis to announce he's
endorsing Mr. Bush. But there also was the persistent issue of the
Iran arms sales, fueled today by the release of that Weinberger
note. The President insisted that it was all old stuff that had
been fully investigated.
(President: "There is nothing contradictory in there of what I've
said, and I don't believe there is anything in there that's gonna
contradict the $40 million that has been spent on these hearings."
The questions raised by that Weinberger note may not be new, but
its public release is. It may not prove anything; the President
has always said he missed part of that meeting. But it gives the
whole issue new life, hardly a help to him as he seeks re-election
on the issues of character and trust.
(ABC-2)
SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 :19-30-92 ;10:34PM ;
#10
White House News Summary
Friday, October 30, 1992 -- 6
PEROT CAMPAIGN
NBC's Jim Cummins reports Ross Perot is taping the last of those
famous 30-minute commercials to air Sunday and Monday night on all
three networks. This weekend, Perot is campaigning in public for
a change, with trips to Florida, Missouri, California and back to
Texas for a rally Monday.
He's been more likely to attack Republicans.
(Perot on Larry King Live: "This is the same party that gave us
Watergate. This is the same party that gave us Iran-contra. This
is the same party that's up to its ears in Iraq-gate now
At the same time, Perot seems to go out of his way to avoid
attacking Clinton. For instance, James Stockdale has harshly
criticized Clinton and other war protesters, accusing them of
prolonging the war, resulting in the deaths of thousands of
American troops. In an interview with David Frost, airing tonight
on PBS, Perot is asked whether he agrees with Stockdale.
(Perot to David Frost: "Let's assume that privately I agree
completely. I'm not going to make that a campaign issue.")
But Perot will make an issue of George Bush in the closing days of
this campaign, saying a vote for Bush is a wasted vote. (NBC-4)
CBS's Bill Lagattuta reports the Perot campaign is privately
delighted at the timing of this Irangate development. They say it
makes their candidate look more credible when he attacks the party
of George Bush.
(Ross Perot on Larry King Live: "This is the same party that gave
us Watergate. This is the same party that gave us Iran-contra.
This is the same party that's up to its ears in Iraq-gate now.
Revisiting his political birthplace last night, Perot also talked
about his plan for the future, which sounded more like a plan to
one day have a plan.
(CBS-3)
POLLS
Brokaw: This is a closing act that has everyone on the edge of
their seats. We go into the final weekend of the campaign with
most of the national polls of likely voters indicating a very tight
race. And with new questions tonight for President Bush about
Iran-contra.
First, the polls. CNN-USA Today have a 1-point spread among
likely voters (Clinton 41%; Bush 40%; Perot 14%.).
ABC's likely voters show a 4-point lead for Clinton (Clinton
41%; Bush 37%; Perot 17%).
But a poll by CBS gives Clinton a 10-point lead. (NBC-Lead)
Jennings reports the latest ABC News national poll taken over the
last two days shows Clinton leading President Bush by four points,
41-37%. That's down three for Clinton since yesterday, up two for
Bush.
(ABC-3)
Rather reports that according to the poll, which was taken before
today's Iran-contra revelations, the Clinton-Gore ticket appeared
to be the choice of 45% of likely voters; Bush-Quayle 10 points
behind and Perot-Stockdale with 15%.
SENT By:Xerox Telecopier 7020 19-30-92 10:35PM ;
i#11
White House News Summary
Friday, October 30, 1992 -- 7
CBS's Mark Phillips reports there are some worrying numbers for the
President in the poll about whether people believe what he says.
The poll shows twice as many people don't believe the President on
Iraq-gate as do. That's fewer people than believe Clinton's
version of his Vietnam war draft history; here the public is split
between belief and disbelief. A general tightening in the polls
means this race, when transferred to the state-by-state electoral
college map, is getting a lot closer. Some of the big prize states
the Clinton camp was counting on are now in play. New Jersey and
Ohio are a tossup; Michigan is tightening; Texas and Florida are
now leaning toward Bush.
(CBS-4)
UNDECIDED VOTERS
Jennings updates on the undecided voters ABC has been tracking in
New York, North Carolina and California.
Eight of 10 in New York said they would vote for Clinton; the
idea of change was appealing to them.
The group in Charlotte, N.C. is still having a hard time
choosing. Five are still undecided. But one will vote for Perot
and three for Bush.
The President has not convinced anyone as yet in the group
from Northern California. Four remain undecided, Clinton got three
and three think Perot's straight talk and business experience are
what the country needs.
(Totals -- Clinton 36; Perot 16; Bush 13; Undecided 30)
(ABC-5)
Rather interviews three voters. One woman is "vehemently against"
President Bush and is now an enthusiastic Clinton supporter. A
man said that given the reality of the least of "three evils, " he
will go with Clinton because he does not trust Bush. Another man
says he trusts President Bush, recounts some of the President!s
accomplishments, and says he does not trust Clinton.
Newsweek's Joe Klein says the race is "fairly stable, with
Clinton maintaining his lead. Klein says the President has not
been addressing the economy very directly over the last month,
which may be part of his problem.
(CBS-8)
VILLALPANDO INVESTIGATION
ABC's Bill Greenwood reports on the investigation of Treasurer
Villalpando for allegedly receiving money from a company after
becoming Treasurer. Authorities are still gathering evidence. She
denies wrongdoing.
(NBC-8, ABC-6)
HEALTH INSURANCE
NBC's Lisa Myers reports from Austin, Texas on how the candidates'
health plans would affect people. Perot has no plan, but promises
one if elected. Bush and Clinton have vague plans with sharply
different approaches.
(President Bush: "My program is this: Keep the government as
far out of it as possible.
Bush emphasizes individual choice. He'd give workers tax credits
or vouchers to help them buy private insurance. But there is a
problem for middle income families.
-
SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 19-30-92 :10:37PM ;
;#12
White House News Summary
Friday, October 30, 1992 --
8
Myers continues: Critics say as many as 25 million Americans would
still lack insurance under the Bush plan.
(Gov, Clinton: "Under out plan, health care will become a
right, not a privilege.")
Clinton's plan would provide insurance for everyone by requiring
employers to cover their workers. Most workers like that idea.
Many small business owners don't. Clinton says small businesses
will get tax credits to ease the burden. Still, workers worry the
burden will be too great.
(Worker: "Then we'll all be without jobs. Then we don't have jobs
and we don't have insurance. So I don't like it.")
Bush and Clinton agree on the need to reduce spiraling health
costs. Clinton's solution: government intervention to control
health care spending. Bush says that will reduce quality and
bureaucratize the system. Bush's prescription: more competition.
Clinton says that won't work. Both candidates claim they can save
enough by reigning in health care costs to pay for insurance for
tens of millions Americans who need it. Experts say in the short
term, at least, that's fantasy.
These workers believe that one way or another, the money will
come from them.
(NBC-7)
HOME SALES
Rather reports the Commerce Department says sales of new homes fell
1% in September, the first outright drop in five months. For the
first nine months of the year, sales are more than 20% above the
same period of last year.
(CBS-6)
###
Presidential Phone Calls
Aboard Air Force One
3
THE THE UNITED
DATE:
10-30
TIME:
incoming / outgoing
WITH:
AI Austin
SUBJECT:
talk wife AM
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BUSH LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY - GEORGE BUSH HANDWRITING
daily 10/30
THE WHITE house
WASHINGTON
Rose, Andy Asket that I PASS
this Alons to you.
Wch.
SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 10-29-92 :11:22AM :
2177534712-
2024562380:# 1
National Committeement
Harrid B. Smith, Jr.
National Committeewings
Mary Ju Aredi
Illinois Republican
histr Handquarters
320 houth Fourth hereet
Secretary
Ronald C. hmith
State Committee
Springfield. II. 62701-1702
217/525-0011
Treasurer
FAX # 1-217-753-4712
Thomas H. kwing
Albert M. Jourdan
Miki Cooper
France Chairman
Chairman
Chairwoman
Alian J. Hamilton
STATE CENTRAL COMMITTEE
FAX (217) 753-4712
181 Department
WILLIAM 0 STEWART
ver
Limited
and DISTRICT
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JAMES: DVOHAK
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5th DISTRICT
FAX #:
ALLAN CARR
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KATHLEEN L WOJCIN
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FROM:
ANDY FOSTER
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JEAN SOUARD
we was
DATE:
pin Detrel
10/29/92
TIME:
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J ROBERT BARR
SUBJECT:
Jim OBERNETTER ARTICLE
10m
DAVID L. BROWN
weren.
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WILLIAM K DAMMETER
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Total number of pages (including this one) :
2
12TH During:
ALBERT M. JOURDAN
Charmas.
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at 217/525-0011.
Accountary
13th Patient
RONALD C. SMITH
Special
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SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 10-29-92 :11:22AM
2177534712-
2024562380:# 2
CHICAGO SUN-TIMES, THURSDAY, OCTOBER 29, 1992
Honesty Pays Off
For Genuine Hero
aybe Jim Oberwetter
M
going, the conspiracy nuts (Oliver
should be running for
Stone, et al) who would have us
president.
believe there's a microphone be.
If you've already forgotten who
hind every lampshade and a tape
Jim Oberwetter is, you've proven
recorder wired to every phone.
once again that the good guys get
Or will it?
no recognition, or at least none
For most people, Oberwetter
that is as lasting as four days.
helped disprove Perot's spying
Jim Oberwetter, a modern hero,
charge. But for the conspiracy
is the Bush campaign chairman in
nuts, it'll be only further proof of
Texas who was too honest to fall
the existence of the Big One.
for an FBI sting in which he was
Here, let me beat them to it by
offered audio tapes and
offering the most cock-
documents from Ross
eyed, off-the-wall ex-
Perot's offices for
planation of why Ober-
$2,500.
wetter's refusal to buy
Perot had provided
the tapes proves that a
the FBI with the tapes
conspiracy exists.
and documents as part
See, it's all a set-up.
of an undercover oper-
If Oberwetter had
ation to check out Per-
bought the tapes, he
ot's claim he was being
would have been arrest-
spied on by the Bush
ed, and his complicity
campaign. Oberwetter,
in the web of spying
incredulous when he
was approached by an
Dennis
would have been ex-
posed It would have
undercover agent he
Byrne
meant, too, that a law
called Cowboy Bob,"
enforcement agency
asked: Haven't you ever
was doing its job by
heard of Watergate?
cracking the conspiracy.
After throwing the creep out,
But, you see, that's not possible,
Oberwetter picked up the phone
according to the conspiracy theo-
and reported the crime to the
rists, because everyone is sup-
local constabulary.
posedly a part of the conspiracy.
It would be most gratifying now
Ergo, the conspiracy never can be
to see the local constabulary turn
exposed, not by normal, legal
around and try to nail the FBI for
means, anyway.
entrapment, for going after some-
Or think of it this way: Ober-
one whom the FBI apparently
wetter protected the conspiracy by
didn't have enough evidence on to
proving that it doesn't exist. By
even get a search warrant. It
refusing to buy the tapes, he
makes me shudder to think what
helped demonstrate that Perot's
Oberwetter's fate might have been
spying charges were false.
if he had not immediately report-
But, you protest, Oberwetter
ed Cowboy Bob's offer.
then would have had to have
"These people had no probable
known in advance that the offer of
cause to come calling on me,
the: tapes was actually an FBI
Oberwetter said. "Outrage is a
sting or he might have purchased
word that understates my feel
the tapes. Well, that's easily ex-
ings. Mine, too.
plained: Oberwetter was tipped
It occurs to me that with many
off about the sting by the CIA. Or
voters believing that two of the
by the FBI itself.
presidential candidates come up
If you're confused by all this,
just a little short in the honesty
don't worry. Just join the rest of
department and the third might
us who believe that the simplest
be 4 bit teched, presidential can-
explanation is often the most ac-
didate Obsrwetter could have
curate one-Oberwetter is honest.
been just what the doctor ordered.
And that the real world isn't al-
But aside from all this, I'm for
ways populated. with. hit squads
giving. Oberwetter a trophy for:
running across your lawn.
(A) providing the exception to the
operative assumption that every
Dennis Byrne, is a member of
politician is a lying crook and (B) the Chicago Sun- Times aditorial
stopping, before they could get board:
Pool Report # 19
Nashville to St. EKG Louis
October 30, 1992
Quayle of the Opryland Hotel. About 400 to 500 people, most with a side
After lobbyk the speech to the KFC folks, the President walked through
minutes signs, were well packed in behind a rope. Bush spent about Bush/ three
working the rope ** line, shaking hands, giving forth
open-mouth, toothy grin. When he realized he missed some, he doubled & an back.
As he pulled aways fromnx the hotel, he shouted out (ju7st
assaults. boarding limo: Amnest y. Look at it this waY ONLY THREE MORE before
the microphone photo to say to pool: Amnesty for the cameramen. car,
the (this to the pool. he gave a thumbs up sign). in DAYS he used of
covered dogs. (he included Compton in the amnesty, and then Amnesty said for it
everyond "but thosesunday talk show
=
Not hing from Air Force One
Jaim Gerstenzang
Los Angeles Times
Doriean Friedman
US News.
POOL REPORT #20
October 30, 1992
(st. Louis, Missouri)
This was from Marlin Fitzwater, aboard Air Force One,
approximately 3:30 p.m. Central Time en route to Milwaukee. I
talked to the Legal Counsel's Office in D.C. regarding the
Weinberger note. It's important to point out that the meeting
involved -- in this indictment is the same one that was the
subject of discussion in the first indictment. There are no new,
facts that have been introduced by this Weinberger note and the
situation has not changed one iota in terms of vice presidential
involvement. The fact remains, as we have always said, that all
these issues that were looked into by hundreds of lawyers
spending some $40 million, and there is just no change in the
situation by virtue of this indictment.
Apparently what's happened is Judge Walsh has changed the
indictment
against Mr. Weinberger. But in terms of
relevance to the vice president, now President, there isn't any
change at all. Marlin was asked about the timing of the note,
and said, "The President said he was not in the loop in knowing
about the diversion of funds, and he certainly wasn't. No one
knew about that, including the Vice President. But in terms of
knowing about the loan initiative, the Vice President always said
all along that he supported President Reagan. There were a lot
of meetings that he did miss. And there were a lot of meetings
that were not regular NSC meetings that he wasn't invited to.
But, nevertheless, that all has not changed at all."
Asked if, in other words, President Bush did not know about the
diversion but knew about the swap, Marlin said, "I don't know
about what he did know or what he recalls from the meeting. But
he didn't know about the diversion of funds. That's the really
only relevant case. The issue about knowing about the Iran
initiative -- so what? The diversion is the only thing that was
subject to legal review. Knowing about the Iran initiative was
not a problem. President Reagan, to this day, does not think
there were arms for hostages swapped.'
Asked about the political timing, Marlin said, "I hate to accuse
anyone of politics, but it does seem mighty suspicious that the
Clinton people are trying to churn this up. They're calling all
over town. It's part of the political game, I guess."
Otherwise, the flight and motorcade to hotel were uneventful.
Muriel Dobbin, McLatchey Newspapers
Dorian Friedman, U.S. News
THE WHITE HOUSE
MRS. BUSH'S PRESS OFFICE
DAILY PRESS CLIPPINGS
Friday, October 30, 1992
Mrs. Bush
(in folder)
Susan Porter Rose
Julie Cooke
Anna Perez
Joan DeCain
Laurie Firestone
Ann Brock
Sondra Haley
Jean Becker
Sally Runion
Jane Moore
Peggy Swift
Anne Griffith
Room 98 OEOB
Diana Kellogg
Room 157 OEOB
Secretary Baker
West Wing
Marlin Fitzwater
West Wing
Constance Horner
West Wing
Dennis Ross
West Wing
Margaret Tutweiler
West Wing
Steve Provost
Room 118 OEOB
Patty Presock
Residence
Gregg Petersmeyer
Room 100 OEOB
Shirley Green
Room 94 OEOB
Karen Connell
Room 58 OEOB
Carol Powers
West Wing
Marguerite Sullivan
Room 268 OEOB
Carolyn Washington
Room 268 OEOB
Benita Somerfield
hold one copy
First Lady Detail
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Chronological Files
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AP photo
First - Lao ..... - . - .
THE BOSTON GLOBE
THURSDAY. OCTOBER 29, 1992
CAMP AIG N 9 2
Barbara Bush tours Vermont
WINOOSKI, Vt. - Barbara Bush kissed a Democratic mayor, cud-
dled a baby, poo-pooed political polls and earned a roomful of goodwill
during a brief campaign stop yesterday in Winooski.
"She's great she's everything she says she is," said Pat Williams,
who drove up from Manchester to hear the president's wife speak at the
Winooski Senior Center.
Williams is a Bush-backer in the presidential race, but said if she had
been undecided, Mrs. Bush would have convinced her to vote for Presi-
dent George Bush next week.
Mrs. Bush started her Vermont visit with a brief meeting with local
supporters at the Burlington International Airport. From there she was
driven into staunchly Democratic territory - Winooski - where she
spoke with about 150 supporters.
ASSOCIATED PRESS
Poll says many N.H. Republicans disaffected
By John Milne
GLOBE STAFF
CONCORD, N.H. - Significant
numbers of New Hampshire GOP
voters are rejecting their party's
candidates, an independent poll re-
leased yesterday found. Republicans
are: so disaffected that state party
leaders reportedly rejected a visit
from President Bush in favor of yes-
terday's appearance by his wife,
Barbara.
"According to a poll of 523 reg-
istered voters conducted by the Uni-
state candidates were received. Bar-
versity of New Hampshire Survey
bara Bush came instead.
Center, Republican Gov. Judd Gregg
"There were some discussions
is trailing Democrat John Rauh in
about the president campaigning in
his. effort to be elected to the US
New Hampshire, but it made more
Senate seat being vacated by Sen.
sense to have him in other parts of
Warren B. Rudman.
the country," Cahill said.
Rauh, a retired Sunapee busi-
Gregg confirmed the phone call
nessman, led Gregg 47 percent to 38
but said he would have welcomed the
percent, the survey said. However,
president.
the poll found that Gregg's support
Barbara Bush came to New
GLOBE STAFF WIGGS
increased during the Oct. 21-26 poll-
Barbara Bush squeezes in a bit of campaigning while heading for a
Hampshire after campaign stops in
ing period.
rally at Brown's Lobster Pound yesterday in Seabrook, N.H.
Maine and Vermont.
Republicans, at 230,000 register-
The Republican defections con-
ed voters, outnumber Democrats by
tinued yesterday. Peter W. Powell, a
30,000 in New Hampshire, while
liam Zeliff was in a virtual tie with
percent, with 16 percent backing in-
Lancaster developer and the son of
there are about 200,000 independent
Democrat Robert Preston, 36
dependent candidate Ross Perot. In
the late Gov. Wesley Powell, an out-
voters.
percent to 34 percent, with nearly
a similar UNH survey in September,
spoken conservative, announced that
The governor's race is a dead
one out of four voters undecided. In-
Clinton led Bush 45 percent to 29
he will vote for Arnesen. "Like other
heat, with Republican Stephen E.
cumbent Democrat Dick Swett had
percent.
Republicans, I am concerned about
Merrill, a former attorney general
57 percent of the vote compared to
A Democratic lead is rare in New
building our party for tomorrow, but
from Manchester, leading Rep. Deb-
22 percent for Republican Bill
Hampshire, where Republicans usu-
I know I must vote for good govern-
orah Arnie Arnesen of Orford by 44
Hatch.
ally win by large majorities. A
ment today," Powell said.
percent to 42 percent, the survey
Republican strategists say their
Democratic presidential candidate
Voters are uneasy because of the
showed. That gap is within the poll's
polls show GOP candidates with big-
has not carried the state since 1964,
still-sliding economy, said Madeleine
3.6 percent margin of error.
ger leads, but William E. Cahill,
but New Hampshire's four electoral
M. Kunin, former governor of Ver-
Breaking out GOP voters, the
chairman of Bush's Victory '92 com-
votes have become important in B
mont, at a get-out-the-vote rally last
poll found that Bush had the support
mittee, said, "We need to reach out
three-way race.
night for Democrats at the State
of only 52 percent of Republicans
to disaffected Republicans" to stave
During a telephone conversation
House.
surveyed, Gregg 62 percent and
off possible Democratic victories.
last week state officials were offered
"New Hampshire, in the prima-
Merrill 67 percent.
The same poll showed Democrat-
a presidential visit, but Republican
ry, revealed how deep-seated the
In the state's two congressional
ic presidential nominee Bill Clinton
sources said yesterday that plans
economic worries are," she said in an
races, incumbent Republican Wil-
leading Bush 42 percent to 30
were changed after the opinions of
interview. "I'm only surprised that it
didn't happen before."
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
THE WASHINGTON POST
The Reliable Source
By Lois Romano
WE'VE HEARD THAT....
Ross Perot seemed pretty pleased with
himself last night when Cher phoned him
up on CNN's "Larry King Live" to let him
know she has just cast an absentee ballot
for him. "I was really nervous, I was really
frightened," Cher confided to the Texan,
adding soulfully, "but my conscience is
clear."
Presidential son
Neil Bush did not go
unnoticed at a
bullfight near
Cancun, Mexico, on
Wednesday. His
presence was
announced over a
loudspeaker, and a
bull was thoughtfully
Neil Bush, bullish.
dedicated to him.
About
The Washington Times
FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30, 1992
Going
in style
at museum
benefit
ocal celebrity women had a
L
Cinderellalike experience
Tuesday when they
underwent a major phys-
Sen. Ted Kennedy with his sister,
ical transformation at the Best of
Jean Kennedy Smith
Washington's 11th annual Fashion
Parade and Luncheon Benefit for
the Capital Children's Museum.
After arriving at the Ramada
Renaissance Techworld with no
makeup, uncoifed hair and every-
day clothes, the business, political,
sports and community leaders
were revamped rapidly by profes-
sional hairdressers, makeup artists
and local and national retailers be=
fore sashaying down a long ramp ir
front of a sold-out crowd of more
than 1,000 guests.
Many of the well-known person-
alities were hardly recognizable in
their silks, chiffons, leathers, blue
jeans, platform shoes and hats.
Some admitted to feeling a little
ridiculous.
the aisle really awoke the mostly
female audience.
Megan Beyer, wife of Virginia's
The red, white and blue occa-
lieutenant governor. wore a snug-
sion was also a reminder that the
fitting black leather skirt and red
leather jacket by Chanel. "I didn't
elections were only a week away.
"Things are looking a little more
think I'd ever wear these again,"
she said, pointing to her platform
sane these days," reported pres-
idential daughter-in-law Margaret
shoes. "I can't see me campaigning
Bush, who was passing through
in Southwest Virginia in this outfit,
but I kind of like it.
X
Above: Margaret Bush and her
town before meeting the president
children, Marshall and
on the campaign trail in Ohio.
"I'd probably have to take a sec-
Walker. Right: Former Olympians
From the other side of the politi-
ond mortgage on the house to be
Dave Hartcorn, Jim Brady,
cal fence came a contingent of
able to purchase these clothes," she
Kenny Carnes and Donna de
Kennedys to cheer Victoria's turn
added.
Varona
in the limelight: sisters-in-law Ethel
Mrs. Beyer wasn't the only one
Kennedy and Jean Kennedy Smith
feeling a little outlandish. "This is
not exactly my image." said Chan-
wife of Ohio Rep. Bob McEwen.
(who received a Humanitarian
nel 7's Paul Berry, one of the few
The celebrity models looked as
Award) and, of course, a proud and
if they were enjoying their freebie
beaming husband, Massachusetts
men in the show. Sporting a jacket
with Mickey Mouse logo, the jovial
make-overs, and they took full ad-
Sen. Ted Kennedy.
vantage of the anything-to-please
Among the models were such
newscaster said it was worth it to
digress from a typical workday to
beauticians willing to spend ample
support a good cause. "People in
time on potential future clients.
polititical ladies as Ginger Sullivan,
Washington like to see and be seen,'
Victoria Reggie Kennedy
Alice Sessions, Elizabeth Rellly,
he said.
seemed to be in no hurry as she
Lois Breaux, Mary Johnston and
Not everyone was feeling self-
tried a couple of different looks.
Mary Sasser. The media contingent
conscious in the borrowed apparel.
And a herd of Hafts. including
included Kate Leherer. Diana
Donatella Andreani. wite of French
pompadoured paterfamilias Her-
McLellan, Lea Thompson, Susan
Ambassador Jacques Andreani,
bert Haft. kept hairstylists entan-
King, Barbara Harrison and Rene
seemed quite at home in her
gled in plenty of big hair.
Poussaint.
Chanei ensemble. Though Mr. An-
Also at the event: D.C. Mayor
Besides the fashion extrava-
dreani enjoyed admiring his wife's
Sharon Pratt Kelly, Capital Chil-
ganza and celebrity turnout. guests
graceful appearance in the red
dren's Museum founder-executive
were impressed with the all-
chiffon outfit. he said. "I hope she
director Ann Lewin, lobbyist Anne
American theme in which 50 mod-
doesn't get too comfortable in it."
Wexler, Bitsy Folger, Ann Vander-
els paraded down the runway ac-
One model. who wasn't at all at
pool, Evelyn DiBona, Sally
companied by 1992 Olympic
ease in a $31,000 fur coat by Fendi.
Chapoton, Mercedes Cecchi, Aliki
athletes, members of the Youth Ma-
had her own way of offsetting the
Bryant, Marlene Malek, Esther
rine Color Guard. Ringling Bros.
preposterous cost of high fashion.
Coopersmith, Estelle Gelman,
and Barnum & Bailey Circus
"I don't know If Fendi would be of-
Grace Bender, Barbara Landow,
clowns. Bugs Bunny and decorated
fended, but I'm wearing my Kmart
Janmarie Prutting and event co-
golf carts. But it was Redskin Mark
shoes!" exclaimed Liz McEwen,
chairs Gloria Haft and Deborah
Stock whose athletic strut down
Siebert.
Siobhan McDonough
The Washington Times
/ FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30. 1992
Merrie-
Go-Round
Merrie Morris
The house on the hill:
Forget the election. What's really
scary is the Quayles' haunted-
looking house Halloween night.
Word is a ghoulish gang with an
uricanny resemblance to the second
family will be passing out candy to
trick or treaters, ages 10 and under.
from 6:30 to 7:30 p.m. However, the
little souls must be brave enough to
approach the house without their
adult companions. Tricks not re-
quired.
USA TODAY FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
FAMILY VALUES: A survey by USA WEEKEND finds
Republican and Democratic presidential camps don't al-
ways differ - especially regarding family values.
In the survey out today, Presi-
dent Bush berates media snooping:
"I don't believe anybody has the
right to disrupt a family just to get a
news story. Character is important,
but if reporters must tear up a fam-
ily and destroy family privacy to
get a story - that story isn't worth
printing"
Democratic vice presidential
candidate Al Gore and his wife,
Tipper, say they'd accept it if their
By Tim Dillon, USA TODAY
children were homosexual: "The
GORE: Kids need
most important thing that a parent
'love, acceptance'
can communicate to a child is love
and acceptance."
Vice President Quayle agreed: "I will always love and
support my children, even if I don't like choices they've
made."
Democratic presidential candidate Bill Clinton and his
wife, Hillary, agree with the Bushes that some popular mu-
sic and TV shows undermine family values. "Children de-
serve to have some innocence," the Clintons said.
Independent presidential candidate Ross Perot and his
running mate did not respond to the survey.
THE WHITE HOUSE
Office of the Press Secretary
(Nashville, Tennessee)
For Immediate Release
October 30, 1992
NATIONAL MEDICAL STAFF SERVICES AWARENESS WEEK, 1992
BY THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
A PROCLAMATION
The professionals who direct or manage medical staff services,
from hospital communications to the accreditation of physicians
and nurses, play an important role in our Nation's health care
system. In addition to serving in hospitals and other primary
care facilities, these professionals also work in health
maintenance organizations, medical societies, state licensing
boards, and consulting firms. BY administering rules and
regulations, by ensuring accreditation compliance, and by
providing a wide range of support to physicians, medical staff
coordinators help to promote the quality and efficiency of health
care.
Today many medical staff services professionals are striving
to promote efficiency and professionalism in health care by
working through the legal, financial, and regulatory requirements
that have increased along with new challenges and opportunities
in the health care industry. This week, we acknowledge the value
of such efforts.
The Congress, by House Joint Resolution 399, has designated
the week of November 1 through November 7, 1992, as "National
Medical Staff Services Awareness Week" and has requested the
President to issue a proclamation in observance of this week.
NOW, THEREFORE, I, GEORGE BUSH, President of the United States
of America, do hereby proclaim the week of
November 1 through November 7, 1992, as National Medical Staff
Services Awareness Week. I invite all Americans to observe this
week with appropriate programs and activities.
IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand this
twenty-ninth day of October, in the year of our Lord
nineteen hundred and ninety-two, and of the Independence of
the United States of America the two hundred and seventeenth.
GEORGE BUSH
THE WHITE HOUSE
office of the Press Secretary
(Nashville, Tennessee)
For Immediate Release
October 30, 1992
NATIONAL MEDICAL STAFF SERVICES AWARENESS WEEK, 1992
BY THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
A PROCLAMATION
The professionals who direct or manage medical staff services,
from hospital communications to the accreditation of physicians
and nurses, play an important role in our Nation's health care
system. In addition to serving in hospitals and other primary
care facilities, these professionals also work in health
maintenance organizations, medical societies, state licensing
boards, and consulting firms. BY administering rules and
regulations, by ensuring accreditation compliance, and by
providing a wide range of support to physicians, medical staff
coordinators help to promote the quality and efficiency of health
care.
Today many medical staff services professionals are striving
to promote efficiency and professionalism in health care ber
working through the legal, financial, and regulatory requirements
that have increased along with new challenges and opportunities
in the health care industry. This week, we acknowledge the value
of such efforts.
The Congress, by House Joint Resolution 399, has designated
the week of November 1 through November 7, 1992, as "National
Medical Staff Services Awareness Week" and has requested the
President to issue a proclamation in observance of this week.
NOW, THEREFORE, I, GEORGE BUSH, President of the United States
of America, do hereby proclaim the week of
November 1 through November 7, 1992, as National Medical Staff
Services Awareness Week. I invite all Americans to observe this
week with appropriate programs and activities.
IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand this
twenty-ninth day of October, in the year of our Lord
nineteen hundred and ninety-two, and of the Independence of
the United States of America the two hundred and seventeenth.
GEORGE BUSH
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
TELEPHONE MEMORANDUM
OCTOBER 30th
, 19 92
PRESIDENT BUSH
TIME
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RES: WASHINGTON, D.C.
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THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
TELEPHONE MEMORANDUM
SIGNAL SWITCHBOARD
October 30, 1992
TIME
NAME
ACTION
PLACED
DISC
XXX
5:42 AM
5:52
Mrs. Barbara P. Bush
Tlkd-ok
Residence, Washington, D.C.
5:43 AM
INC
PM
White House Admin x551
XXX
7:24 AM
7:32
Mr. C. Boyden Gray
T1kd-ok
Office, Washington, D.C.
7:27 AM
INC
PM
456-6611
OUT
7:54 AM
7:56
Doctor Burton J. Lee III
Tlkd-ok
Opryland Hotel
7:55 AM
Nashville, Tennessee
XXX
PM
Nashville Signal 3-3000
OUT
7:57 AM
7:58
Admiral Jonathan T. Howe
T1kd-ok
Opryland Hotel
7:57 AM
Nashville, Tennessee
XXX
PM
Nashville Signal 3-3315
XXX
8:34 AM
8:48
Mr. Roger E. Ailes
WCB
Office, New York City, New York
8:35 AM
212-685-8400
T1kd-ok
INC
PM
8:43 AM
OUT
11:01 AM
11:05
Ms. Patty Presock
T1kd-ok
Office, Washington, D.C.
11:02 AM
XXX
PM
White House Signal 7-2198
via Cellular STU-III
OUT
11:16 AM
11:24
Mr. Alan S. Austin
Tlkd-ok
Office, Tampa, Florida
11:18 AM
XXX
PM
813-289-3886
via Secure Satellite
OUT
11:25 AM
Attorney General Griffin B. Bell
PRESUS Cancel
Grosvenor House Hotel
11:50 AM
London, England
XXX
PM
499-6363
XXX
AM
Mr. Raymond D. Siller
Tlkd with Mr. Farish
Office, Washington, D.C.
1:56 PM
INC
1:35 PM
456-2930
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
TELEPHONE MEMORANDUM
SIGNAL SWITCHBOARD
October 30, 1992
TIME
NAME
ACTION
PLACED
DISC
OUT
AM
Mr. C. Boyden Gray
WCL
Office, Washington, D.C.
2:40 PM
White House Signal 7-2258
PRESUS Cancel
XXX
2:36 PM
3:50 PM
OUT
AM
Mr. John P. Schmitz
T1kd-ok
Office, Washington, D.C.
2:45 PM
XXX
2:43 PM
2:49
456-2632
via Secure Satellite
OUT
AM
Mr. C. Boyden Gray
Tlkd-ok
Office, Washington, D.C.
3:31 PM
XXX
3:30 PM
3:41
White House Signal 7-2258
via Secure Satellite
OUT
AM
Governor John H. Sununu
T1kd-ok
Office, Washington, D.C.
5:06 PM
XXX
5:05 PM
5:13
898-7655
OUT
AM
Secretary Manuel Lujan, Jr.
Tlkd-ok
Republican Headquarters
5:10 PM
Los Alamos, New Mexico
XXX
5:14 PM
5:21
505-662-4212
OUT
AM
Secretary Edward R. Madigan
Tlkd-ok
Holiday Inn, Des Moines, Iowa
5:39 PM
XXX
5:14 PM
5:40
515-283-0151
OUT
AM
Mr. Joe McQuaid
Tlkd-ok
Office, Manchester, New Hampshire
5:31 PM
XXX
5:30 PM
5:38
603-668-4321
OUT
AM
Mr. Marlin Fitzwater
Tlkd-ok
Office, Racine, Wisconsin
6:14 PM
XXX
6:02 PM
6:19
Racine Signal 4-3281
OUT
AM
Ms. Judy A. Smith
PRESUS Cancel
Office, Racine, Wisconsin
6:07 PM
XXX
6:05 PM
Racine Signal 4-3228
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
TELEPHONE MEMORANDUM
SIGNAL SWITCHBOARD
October 30, 1992
TIME
NAME
ACTION
PLACED
DISC
OUT
AM
Mr. C. Boyden Gray
Tlkd-ok
Alibi Restaurant, Washington, D.C.
6:29 PM
XXX
6:19 PM
6:31
347-8559
XXX
AM
Mr. Jonathan E. Bush
Tlkd-ok
En route Residence, Miami, Florida
6:40 PM
INC
6:37 PM
6:47
305-775-4221
via Cellular Phone
XXX
AM
Mr. George W. Bush, Jr.
Tlkd-ok
Residence, Dallas, Texas
7:32 PM
INC
7:25 PM
7:36
214-692-6604
XXX
AM
Mr. William Bush
LW with Mr. Farish
Residence, St. Louis, Missouri
9:29 PM
INC
9:27 PM
314-993-1210
OUT
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OUT
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PM
OUT
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INC
PM
OUT
AM
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OUT
AM
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PRESIDENTIAL MOVEMENTS
Nashville, Tennessee
St. Louis, Missouri
Milwaukee, Wisconsin
LOCATION
Racine, Wisconsin
DATE30 October 1992
TIME
MOVEMENTS
1045
Depart Opryland Hotel via Motorcade
1108
Arrive Tennessee Air National Guard Base
1121
Depart Tennessee Air National Guard Base via Air Force One
1217
Arrive Lambert International Airport, St. Louis, Missouri
1229
Depart Lambert International Airport via Motorcade
1254
Arrive Maryville Center
1411
Depart Maryville Center via Motorcade
1435
Arrive Lambert International Airport
1446
Depart Lambert International Airport via Air Force One
1530
Arrive Mitchell International Airport, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
1542
Depart Mitchell International Airport via Motorcade
1610
Arrive Marriott Hotel, Racine, Wisconsin
1915
Depart Marriott Hotel via Motorcade
1929
Arrive Memorial Hall
2138
Depart Memorial Hall via Motorcade
2151
Arrive Marriott Hotel
10/29/92
13:48
76174951364
INST OF POLITICS
002
HARVARD UNIVERSITY
JOHN E KENNEDY SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT
E
INSTITUTE OF POLITICS
John
79 John F. Kennedy Street
Cambridge, Massachusetts oz138
To
617-495-1360
FAX 617-495-1364
Thursday, 29 October 1992
Dear Mr. President:
I got the message you called. Attached are two memos I wrote
about the campaign. One was written two weeks ago and is about
Perot and the campaign. The other is about what we might do now.
I am convinced you will win. Slick Willie is hitting the
panic button and "the feisty little guy from Dallas" is not dealing
from a full deck.
Keep on trucking. I'm praying for you and for my country.
The Kennedy school Contras are Hanging in there, surrounded but
undefeated.
All Best:
All John Ellis
for
10/30/92
John there are yourest valing Mom 16 duivy
&
10-30
10/29/92
13:49
C6174851584
1951 or POLITICS
If
MEMORANDUM
To:
President Bush/Fred Steeper/George W. Bush
From:
John Ellis
Date:
Thursday, 29 October 1992
Re:
Campaign Endgame
Governor Clinton's lead has now evaporated. Perot's authentic
message of change has obliterated Clinton's "change" argument.
Perot's paranoid dementia has now raised the "character/temperment/
experience" question to a new level. Natural movement of
Republicans and conservatives back to GB accounts for the rest of
the voter shift away from Clinton. The Clinton campaign is headed
for the Panic Zone. This is what we need to do to continue to
drive the election.
1. Increase the frequency of the "Commander-in-Chief" spot.
Perot's paranoid episodes on "60 Minutes" and at the various press
conferences since has raised the whole issue of
character/temperament/fitness/experience to a new level. This
works to our advantage and against Clinton. "Commander-in-Chief"
drives that message better than anything else we have.
2. Maintain and Emphasize our position as The Underdog. This is
a critical component. The President gains when he is perceived as
the Underdog. He is seen as a fighter, battling the odds. It is
a naturally sympathetic stance. We should enhance this perception
by doing the following:
a) Have signs made for all GB/BB/DQ/MQ rallies that
say: "You Gotta Believe." This will establish
a direct link to famous "come-from-behind"
baseball teams of the past (Miracle Mets '69
and the Pirates of '79). Bush staffers on the
plane should wear "You gotta Believe" buttons.
b) Constantly emphasize in our conversations with
the press that we are still behind but gaining.
c) Paint Clinton as taking victory for granted and
overconfident.
10/29/92
13:50
6174951304
INSI OF POLITICS
3.
Continue to hammer the Washington Press Corps and the
Washington Establishment as having "decided" the election in
Clinton's favor. This is a critically important element. In 1968
and 1972, in 1980, 1984 and 1988, we were able to run against the
Liberal Establishment, thus establishing our credentials as outside
of the Washington system. Up until the last two weeks, we were the
Washington establishment. Then the press decided the race was over
and Clinton was declared the victor (cover of Newsweek/cover of
Time). This gives us our opening. We can accurately say that the
Washington insiders and talking heads have decided the outcome of
the presidential campaign of 1992. Clinton won. Well
fuck
them, fuck him and fuck that
the election is next Tuesday and
we'll count the votes then.
4. GB needs a new speech for the last three-four days. It should
be a direct appeal, possibly written along the following outline:
a) I want your support to (a) enact The agenda for American
renewal, (b) continue conservative governance, (c)
improve the prospects for world peace and (d)
continue to grow America's enormous economic potential.
b) I need your support to (a) make sure that when a crisis
comes we're able to deal with it, (b) hold the line on
taxes, (c) stop runaway Federal spending and (d) maintain
conservative values in the bully pulpit.
c) I ask for your vote because my political life is on
the line. If I leave the stage now, I will have not
completed the mission. I know better now what that
mission is (see above). With your help, I will complete
it.
5. We should roadblock the networks on Monday night at 10:55
eastern for a last 5-minute speech to the nation. This is the
prime network time slot, just before the late news. It should
mirror the themes in point #4.
6. We should continue (as hard as it might be) to bolster Perot's
credibility on issues and change. After last night in Denver, it
is clear that Perot and stockdale have targeted Clinton. We need
to keep Perot up on the radar in order for him to be effective in
his attacks on Clinton.
10/29/92
13:51
*6174951364
INSI UI POLITICS
If
MEMORANDUM
To:
President Bush/Fred Steeper/George W. Bush
From:
John Ellis
Date:
Thursday, 15 October 1992
Re:
The Campaign
Bill Clinton's presidential candidacy is headed for the rocks. The
evidence is only beginning to emerge in public opinion polling.
But the debates have created a new dynamic and if we execute
correctly we will win the election. Following are the key elements
to the new dynamic:
1. Ross Perot went from little-known, slightly eccentric Dallas
businessman to the front-running independent candidate for
President of the United States in a matter of two months (April 15-
June 15) on the strength of his message. The three components of
his message were (and are) the same three that made George Wallace
a major player in the late 1960s and early 1970s: (1) Send Them a
Message; (2) There's Not a Dime's Worth of Difference between the
two political parties; and (3) Stand Up for America. Perot dropped
Wallace's racialist rhetoric and has instead focused his wrath on
what Wallace used to call "pointy-headed bureaucrats in
Washington." Perot calls them "special interests," "Beltway
insiders" and "lobbyists in $1000 suits and alligator shoes."
2. The reason Perot vaulted as far and as fast as he did is
because his message resonated across the country. A majority of
voters believe that our political system is a rigged game, in which
only insiders in the government, business, special interests and
the media reap the returns.
3. When Perot dropped out, Bill Clinton uneasily inherited the
majority of the Perot voters. It was not an easy fit. Clinton,
after all, is not an authentic agent of change. His whole life
revolves around playing and using the "system" to his advantage.
10/29/92
13:52
96174951364
1351 OF POLITICS
&
4. Clinton is perhaps the best politician of his generation. So
he has been able to frame the presidential race on his terms, which
are: "Who are you for? Are you for Bush or not-Bush? If you are
for not Bush, then you are for me!"
5. And it has worked, so far. This whole race has defied all of
the laws of political gravity because it has not been a choice
between Bush and Clinton, but rather a hypothetical question about
Bush VS. not-Bush.
6. Perot changed that dynamic by getting back in the race and
getting into the debates. The authenticity of his message reveals
Clinton's message for what it is. It's bullshit. And everyone
knows it. When Bill Clinton wishes his wife a happy anniversary
during the first debate, everyone thinks: "What about Ms. Flowers?
This guy's full of shit." When Bill Clinton talks about "change,"
the change he describes sounds like the Nightmare from Democratic
Hell. Billions in new spending, billions in new taxes. He does
not talking about changing the system, which is what a majority of
voters desperately want changed.
7. The authenticity of the Perot message diminishes Clinton's
message and raises direct questions about Clinton's character
(honesty and integrity). When VP Quayle hammered Clinton on
Tuesday night for being a "liar," Albert Gore did not even bother
to refute the charge.
8. This is our opening. We need to hammer Clinton on three
things: (1) Character (he won't tell you the truth) i (2)
Clintonomics (Arkansas?/Carter-Mondale policies of the past which
will make things worse) and (3) Commander in Chief (somewhere,
sometime, there will be a crisis that will come up, who do you
trust to deal with it?)
9. Perot, in order to redeem himself, will only find votes among
Clinton supporters and the undecided. Our 37% is solid and will
not move. So he must go after Clinton. It is his only way to
redemption.
10. Clinton is then caught in the ugly logic of his candidacy. He
is inevitable, he is electable, he is "for change," but no one is
voting for him. They are voting against Bush or for Perot but
amazingly few voters are actually for Clinton.
11. In order to vote for Perot, voters must be reassured that
their votes will not be thrown away. Thus it is imperative for
Perot to make the case in the final debate (and if not then, then
in his last advertisements) that a vote for him will in fact Send
Them a Message and allow them to Stand Up for America. It seems to
me his Monday night game plan will have to focus on that.
10/29/92
13:54
P6174951364
1A51 or POLITICS
12. After Monday's debate we must go negative by going positive.
In other words, we must make the case for President Bush as
"commander in chief" and by unstated implication find Clinton
untrustworthy and unworthy in that role. We must make the case for
President Bush's agenda for American Renewal while desparaging past
Democratic economic performance (Arkansas?/Carter-Mondale). And we
must emphasize President Bush's character positively (with shots of
Bar and the kids and testimonials from friends) and let Clinton
hang by unstated comparison.
13. Clinton is extraordinarily vulnerable and currently is below
50% in every state except those that are safely Democratic to begin
with. We can assist his political collapse by relentlessly
focusing on his character (with direct negative through Tuesday, 20
October) and then by making the larger case for President Bush in
the final two weeks. We need one more "different philosophy"
speech to outline our sharply different views of the role of
government.
14. There should definitely be two key ads for the last two weeks:
One that executes the whole concept of Commander in Chief and
another that compares Arkansas?/Carter/Clinton economics with
President Bush's mea culpa/agenda for renewal.
15. President Bush should do everything we can think of to bolster
Perot's candidacy and, more importantly, credibility. Every vote
that Ross gets above 8% is a vote off Clinton. Perot is the enemy
of our enemy. Therefore he is our friend.
daily
GEORGE BUSH
WASHINGTON
Mr. John E. Stein
Sunwater Farm
SR 4, Box 184-D
Brightwood, Virginia 22715
GEORGE BUSH
WASHINGTON
October 30, 1992
(Racine, Wisconsin)
Dear John,
Thanks so much for your warm letter of October 23.
As we head further down this final stretch, my
spirts are high and the crowds are more and more
enthusiastic. I'll remain on the road through
election day, but with only four days to go, I feel
confident of winning.
Barbara and I appreciate all you're doing and send
our family love.
Sincerely,
ay
JOHN ELLSWORTH STEIN
SUNWATER FARM
BRIGHTWOOD, VIRGINIA 22715
Friday, October 23, 1992
Dear Goye,
Just a note before the last week to let you know
that and you're going to win. Abbe and d have been talking
stop in Culpoper, Drange, Charlottesville and have in
debating with on friends and maighbors non-
Madison, Viginia. Things are definitely moving toward
you; it is clear and sure.
able wrote a letter to the editor of several local
newspapers supporting your candidary and has received
a number of enrowaging calls same. We tell
everyone to go out and convine someone else 8 the
merits of your relection
Heap your sprits high. If our area of Piedmont,
Virginia is representative of lots of places in this
County (and A believe it is ) This are diffinitedy
moving toward Bush/Duayle!
My very best,
John
GEORGE BUSH
WASHINGTON,
Ms. Elizabeth Rice
Younger Companies
Suite 200
2575 West Bellfort
Houston, Texas 77054
GEORGE BUSH
WASHINGTON
October 30, 1992
(Racine, Wisconsin)
Dear Elizabeth,
Your thoughtful letter of October 26 has caught up with me
on the road. Thanks so much for your kind words of support
and encouragement. The media has been terrible in this
election, but with four days to go, I am confident the
American people will make the right choice on November 3rd
and we will win.
Barbara and I are sincerely grateful for your support.
We've been traveling nonstop these past two weeks and will
be in Houston on Monday night. I appreciate your kind offer
to help and will keep it in mind. Thanks, again.
Sincerely,
ay Buh
YOUNGER COMPANIES
October 26, 1992
President George Bush
The White House
Washington, DC 10205
Dear Mr. President:
You certainly are proving the old saying, " If you tell the truth,
it will never come back to haunt you" and "If you tell the truth
long enough people will believe it and accept it."
Strange that many Democrats are now faced with the decision, do we
vote for our party or do we vote for the truth.
Republicans are strange creatures. We don't make quite as much
noise as the democrats but we Vote. We study all the facts,
weigh and measure the candidate carefully, and we Vote. When all
the smoke clears on November 3, I am confident that the
Republicans, along with many Democrats and many who do not claim an
affiliation with any party will Vote and it will again be President
George Bush in the White House.
It would serve the American people well to listen carefully to your
closing remark each time you speak to them
"and God bless the
United States of America". We need a leader who recognizes God's
existence and blessings and who is not afraid to acknowledge that
His grace has made this a great nation.
The media has crucified this election and at some point they will
be held accountable for the future. One thing for sure, that
reporter only gets ONE vote just like me The thing we the people
have done wrong, is to give the media an open door to plant their
opinions in the American mind instead of just reporting the news.
Mr. President, I'm sure if you endorsed a vitamin it would make a
fortune
you look extremely fresh and healthy and Mrs. Bush looks
radiant.
My prayers are with you and again, if I can be of any service to
you here in Houston, please let me know.
Respectfully
2575 WEST BELLFORT, SUITE 200
HOUSTON, TEXAS 77054
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NAME
MS. ELIZABETH RICE
ORG
YOUNGER COMPANIES
STREET
SUITE 200
2575 WEST BELLFORT
ADDR
HOUSTON
TX 77054
SUBJECT
THANKS FOR THE GIFT OF THE GOLF HAT
SUBCODE GI002
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Sanders
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NAME
Mr. Douglas Sanders
SPOUSE
Mrs. Scotty
SAL OUT
Doug & Scotty
DESCR
Professional golfer.
CODES
DB2 5 CC5 TXHSTN PLITCL SELEBZ SPORTS HUFRAQ
ISSUES
SPGOLF KNPORT PRAYRZ
FFNAME
"George," "George B" and "GB" out.
HOME1
8828 Sandringham
Houston, TX 77024
(713) 681-6134
Or: 681-6135.
BUSINESS1 Doug Sanders Enterprises, Inc.
Suite 115
8100 Washington Avenue
Houston, TX 77007
(713) 864-3684
Kingwood Celebrity Classic.
Elizabeth Rice was 1990 Tournament Director.
Asst: Ianne Shuler.
?
LUPDATE 921027
4BU
Sanders
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UPDATE BY CT02
DATES
FYI: Born approximately 1934.
PRIV COMM
Children: Brad, Scott and Stacey.
His annual Doug Sanders Kingwood Celebrity Classic, a high-
light of the Senior PGA Tour, identifies and provides scholar-
ships for gifted student golfers.
CONTACT
5/90 GB attended Doug Sanders Kingwood Celebrity Classic in
Houston TX.
9/22-23/90 Overnight guest at Camp David.
8/89 They both spent time in K'port with GB and BPB.
CORSPNDNC
ChrisCard: 1990, 1991.
2/9/90 GB thanked for 1/2 letter and invitation to golf in
May. Schedulers will take closer look as date approaches.
3/1/91 GB thanked for support phone call.
4/91 GB sent signed photo.
5/6/91 GB thanked for get-well phone call.
4BÜ
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6/11/91 GB thanked for letter. Invites him to lunch in D.C.
8/26/91 GB thanked him for invite to May 16 tournament.
10/16/91 GB thanked for golf shirts.
10/24/91 GB thanked for clothes. Maybe they could golf in TX
12/91 Made donation to St. Judes Ranch for Children for
Christmas present, picture shows kids at their home.
GEORGE BUSH
WASHINGTON,
e letter from
Southern Baptist
The Reverend Morris H. Chapman
t's fax it to
Executive Committee
t would encourage
Southern Baptist Convention
901 Commerce Street
Suite 750
ty
Nashville, Tennessee 37203
GEORGE BUSH
WASHINGTON
October 30, 1992
(Racine, Wisconsin)
Dear Reverend Chapman,
Your wonderful letter of October 29 has caught up with me
in Wisconsin. Thank you for the very kind and supportive
words and for your prayers.
I'll remain on the road through election day, but with
convinced victory
only four days remaining, I feel confident of winning.
Thanks, again, and best wishes to you and Jodi from all
of the campaign;
the Bushes.
and a profound
Sincerely,
ht.
Cuy Busl
'God bless these
Then Class
Morris H. Chapman
MHC:bc
Home telephone: (615) 661-5191
901 Commerce Street, Suite 750, Nashville, Tennessee 37203 (615) 244-2355 FAX (615) 742-8919
Executive Committee
Southern Baptist Convention
Harold C. Bennett President and Treasurer
Morris H. Chapman
President and
Treasurer-Elect
October 29, 1992
President George Bush
The White House
Washington, DC 20500
Dear Mr. President:
Keep the faith. The battle is the Lord's. The tide has turned. I am convinced victory
is within your grasp.
I am praying for you supernatural wisdom in these last few days of the campaign;
keenness of mind especially during Larry King Live Friday evening and a profound
peace which passes all understanding (Philippians 4:7) on election night.
May God bless you and your family. And as you have said often, "God bless these
United States of America."
Sincerely,
Then Ch
Morris H. Chapman
MHC:bc
Home telephone: (615) 661-5191
901 Commerce Street, Suite 750, Nashville, Tennessee 37203 (615) 244-2355 FAX (615) 742-8919
Previous
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DR. MORRIS CHAPMAN
TITLE
PRESIDENT
ORG
SOUTHERN BAPTIST CONVENTION
STREET
901 COMMERCE STREET
SUITE 750
ADDR
NASHVILLE
TN 37203
SUBJECT
THANKS FOR ACCOMPANYING THE VICE PRESIDENT
TO SHREVEPORT, LOUISIANA ON MAR 8 92. HE
GAVE ME A TERRIFIC TRIP REPORT AND NOTED
YOUR INVALUABLE SUPPORT.
SUBCODE ME001
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INDCODE 4500 4900
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CC: VPOTUS AND ROSE ZAMARIA
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REV. MORRIS H. CHAPMAN
ORG
SOUTHERN BAPTIST CONVENTION
STREET
SUITE 750
901 COMMERCE STREET
ADDR
NASHVILLE
TN 37203
SUBJECT
THANKS FOR THE SUPPORT FROM YOU AND JODI FOR
MY REELECTION
SUBCODE PL
PR003
INDCODE 4500
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4BÜ
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
October 22, 1992
GEORGE BUSH
WASHINGTON
Hart
thank-you
Mr. Jerry Hart
Hart.
1537 Kirby Drive
ished the
Houston, Texas 77019
ff room
met the
re. They
GEORGE BUSH
talked
told me
WASHINGTON
ention or
DU. Mr.
October 30, 1992
te should
(Racine, Wisconsin)
Dear Mr. Hart,
fice, who
ximately
I would like to personally thank you for donating the use
th their
of your lovely furniture at our 1992 Republican National
(FYI: if a
Convention. Not only was the furniture beautiful, it
added a feeling of warmth to each room. It was very kind
of you help in this way, and I appreciate your support.
I've been out campaigning almost nonstop since then, and
with only four more days to go, I remain confident of
winning this election.
Best wishes to you and Wynonne.
Sincerely,
inj Bush
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
October 22, 1992
MEMORANDUM FOR NANCY HUANG
FROM:
BARBARA BLACKBURN
SUBJECT:
Presidential Thank you
Per our conversation, Tim Parker, a designer from the Hart
Galleries called our office asking for a Presidential thank-you
from the President to the Hart Galleries owner, Jerry Hart.
Apparently, at the Convention, the Hart Galleries furnished the
Presidential suite, First Family room and Chief of Staff room
with antiques, artwork, etc. Mr. Hart claims that he met the
President who was very thankful for the lovely furniture. They
have been thanked via the Convention people but I have talked
with Bill Harris' (Convention Manager) office and they told me
that someone (and we don't know whether they were Convention or
campaign people) promised them a Presidential thank you. Mr.
Harris' office felt strongly that a POTUS thank you note should
be sent to Mr. Hart.
In addition, I spoke with Jeff Monk, B/Q Counsel's office, who
told me that some of the furniture was damaged (approximately
$3000 worth), and they (B/Q) are presently working with their
insurance company to try and rectify the situation. (FYI: if a
note is sent, they would like a copy for their file.)
The note should be addressed to:
Mr. Jerry Hart (wife-Wynonne)
1537 Kirby Drive
Houston, TX 77019
Tim Parker's telephone #713-266-3500
10-25-92
daily 10/30
JEB BUSH, CODINA.BUSH GROUP HE PRESIDENT HAS SEEN 10/30
Dear DAO,
You were great in Floride
we well wen. By to time you
The results will he Bue 395
get thes, the lace will he 435 over Claston
and Peot. 176 with 1% for Marror etal. You
will have defined the presents and may in
our own camp. we will we because of
you your determination, your spirit, your
leadership. dresn't two out as e have are producted, right
If it daught me that and you what else
life will goes have on. given You at our best shor and can
ine we at for. we Reght? love you very much! Coryroholation on
you victory!
Sinclrely, nelli Bush llwe you.
Jet SR,
GEORGE BUSH
WASHINGTON
Mr. and Mrs. John W. Young
221 Lakeshore Drive
Seabrook, Texas 77586
G
GEORGE BUSH
WASHINGTON
(Nashville, Tennessee)
October 30, 1992
Dear Susy and John:
Your good letters caught up with me on the
campaign trail.
We're going to win this thing regardless of the
relentless pounding by the news media.
Bar joins me in sending our best wishes. Hope
our paths cross soon.
Sincerely,
an ugly year
Cm Buh
but we u win !
Dear Chief and Chief Bar,
My apologies for not having written sooner, par-
ticularly since mid-February when you, shall we
say, assisted in the departure from NASA of my
least-liked person on this earth. And, we are
thrilled with our new administrator. My life is
back to the future and back to wonderful. Thank
you SO much.
'Nuff NASA stuff. I was particularly remiss in
not having written when all was going SO wonder-
fully for you. What I needed to tell you then
was you both did one heckuva job. We were always
proud to know you; you both added class and integ-
rity to an area not always known for such quali=
ties, and humor and intelligence when both were
sorely needed.
like
When all this major wonderful stuff is over, we
hope to see you again. (Johnny says you're prob-
ably mad at me 'cause you've had us and I've not
had you for dimer, but I will remedy that if you
will come. )
Anyway, lots of good thoughts send to you from us
for good things in November, and, as always,
Lots say of love,
221 haheshore Drive
Sealvock Texas 77586
18 October 1992
Dear President Bush.
The NDSA Adminstrator. Mr Dan Soldin, presented
me with your very nice letter of / October 1992.
He made the presentation in front of about
heleasently surprised. Susy was very touched
opening Space Center, Houston. I was completely,
a thousand people at the ribban cutting ceremony
by the centire proceedings.
in the election. Our Irigor Space Exploration
Susy and I wish youand Bar all the best
should be an important issue to americans
concerned about our nations future.
again many Thanks.
Sincerely yours.
John yarung
GEORGE BUSH
WASHINGTON
Monsignor William J. Lyons
8200 Natural Bridge Road
Saint Louis, Missouri 63121
GEORGE BUSH
WASHINGTON
(Nashville, Tennessee)
October 30, 1992
Dear Father Lyons:
Thank you for your kind note.
Your support means a lot. The media is
relentless, but we're going to win this thing.
Barbara joins me in sending our best wishes.
Sincerely,
Cig Bul
8831 the MON
KENNEBUNIC PORT
It MA7 CARDING
DINNER GUEST WITH
(MSGR.) Buthyous
-
you BOT H
WITH
AM
Mins Bush
MIR PResident and
SAINT LOUIS, MISSOURI 63121
8200 NATURAL BRIDGE ROAD
SNOAT Haasor WVITUM
(3) 10-30-92
daily
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
DAD -
w/
Keep up the fight!
We are incrediesly
proud of you!
This will be
the quatist victory
sunce the R Sweet 16
Victory i L Shoes!
Love, Maw
GEORGE BUSH
WASHINGTON
Miss Eldred Brown
Post Office Box 594
Big Timber, Montana 59011-0594
GEORGE BUSH
WASHINGTON
(Nashville, Tennessee)
October 30, 1992
Dear Eldred:
Thank you for your great letter.
Your kind words warmed my heart. We're
going to win regardless of the relentless bias
of the news media.
Again, yours. thanks so much, Best wishes to you and
Sincerely,
Miss Eldred Brown
Box 594
Att'n.: Don Rhodes
Big Timber, MT 59011
October 20, 1992
President George Bush
The White House
Washington, D.C. 20500
Dear President Bush:
I can imagine That you and your staff
are even more weary of this long campaign Than
is The average American. It must be grueling beyond
belief, and there must be times of utter frustration
in view of the bias of the media.
Even 50. I beg of you to stay the course, as I
know you will. I appreciate your commit ment TO
public service since you were a young man. I
believe in you, I trust you, and I know you are
fighting the good fight.
Thank you for all you have done for This nation
ahead! in the past, and God bless you in The weeks
Eldred Sincerely, Brown
10-25-92
daily 10/30
JEB BUSH, CODINA·BUSH GROUP
Dear DRO,
You were great in Flored
we well we By to time you
The results will he Bue 396
get this, th lace will he 432 over Clinton
and Peot. 176 with 1% for Marrow etal. You
will have defined the predit and many in
our own camp. we well wis because of
you your determination, your spirit, your
leadership. If it dresn't two out that as and & you have are preducted, right
life well goes have on. given You daught it out me best shot and what else on can
ine we at for. we Right? love you very much! Congrabulation
you victory!
Sinclrely, nelli Bush I love you-
Jet SR, Columba
TIME OF TRANSMISSION
TIME OF RECEIPT
WHITE HOUSE
SITUATION ROOM
PRECEDENCE: IMMEDIATE
RELEASER:
PRIORITY
ROUTINE
DTG:
MESSAGE NO.
CLASSIFICATION UNCLASSIFIED
PAGES 1
FROM ROBIN MACLEAN
X2328
FF/WW
(NAME)
(PHONE NUMBER)
(ROOM NO.)
MESSAGE DESCRIPTION
TO (AGENCY)
DELIVER TO
DEPT/ROOM NO.
PHONE NUMBER
ROSE ZAMARIA - AIR FORCE ONE
CROSE 2. IS EXPECTING TO
RECEIVE THIS WHEN SHE
BOARDS AFI THIS AM EN ROUTE
ST LOUIS.)
REMARKS:
ROSE,
CHOO
HERE'S THE LETTER WE
CHOO
0
BUSH 92.
DISCUSSED.
0
YEA/
R.
D
White House News Summary
Friday, October 30, 1992
10:00 A.M. EST/9:00 A.M. CST NEWS UPDATE
PRESIDENT'S INTERVIEW (Reuter) -- President Bush said in an
interview broadcast today that he is encouraged by his improvement
in the polls that he recently has been dismissing as "nutty." But
Bush said on NBC's Today that he was still not convinced they were
right. "Obviously, we're encouraged," he said in the interview
videotaped Thursday night aboard Air Force One. "But we can't put
great faith in the polls." Bush said that despite the polls
showing he still trails Clinton by various margins, "I never lost
confidence in winning the election.'
Bush declined to repeat his pledge on not raising taxes in a
second term, recalling that he had to roll back his 1988 pledge of
"Read my lips: no new taxes. " "I'm not going to go the pledge
route, he said. "You don't try to retrace the mistakes of the
past."
CAMPAIGN (Karen Ball, AP) -- President Bush and Bill Clinton fought
over the sluggish economy as they headed into the last weekend of
their presidential race, with the Democratic nominee lashing out
anew at his rival's record on jobs and growth. "If you look at
what's happened over the last 10 or 12 years the overall line is
going down, Clinton said on ABC's Good Morning America in a
broadcast from a diner in nearby East Rutherford.
Both Bush and Clinton were campaigning at a breakneck pace in
tossup states. They and Ross Perot snapped up free air time to
take their case to the voters.
In a taped interview on NBC's Today, Bush was asked if he
would promise not to raise taxes in a second term and said: "I'm
not going to go the pledge route."
GORE/ENVIRONMENT (Beaumont, Tex./AP) -- Sen. Gore accused President
Bush of insulting Americans who are concerned about the environment
by making light of the issue with expressions such as "Ozone Man"
instead of providing leadership. His comment came in an interview
on NBC's Today.
POLLSTERS/DECLINING RESPONSES (Scripps Howard, adv. 10/31) -- Some
survey experts are wondering: have they misread public opinion
because Americans increasingly refuse to answer questions by phone?
In the 1970s, about 80% of those surveyed completed polls. today,
response rates hover at about 60%, pollsters say. Since the
accuracy of a survey depends upon reaching people at random, some
pollsters are wondering whether certain types of people are
consistently choosing not to answer. San Francisco pollster Mervyn
Field blamed the trend toward declining response rates on changing
lifestyles in the family, the rapid spread of answering machines
and tricky telemarketing tactics that have contributed to a
diminished regard for opinion surveyers.
###
News Summary
OFFICE OF THE PRESS SECRETARY
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
6:00 A.M. EST EDITION
TRIP NEWS
BUSH FINDS FUEL FOR FIRE ABOUT STATE, IN SUBURBS -- If President
Bush needed any fuel for his finishing kick, he may have found it
in Michigan on Thursday.
(Detroit Free Press)
CONFIDENT BUSH BARES HIS KNUCKLES -- The surging Bush campaign
machine thundered through Michigan and into enemy territory --
Tennessee -- Thursday in a bid to stage an upset victory, as the
campaign rhetoric on both sides got nastier. (Washington Times)
BUSH, CLINTON BEGIN FINISH-LINE SPRINT -- Pumped up by the polls
and the moment, President Bush raced across Michigan Thursday in
rhetorical overdrive, attacking the "way-out, far-out" Democratic
ticket.
(Washington Post)
NATIONAL NEWS
CLINTON CAMPAIGN SEEKS PERMISSION FOR LOAN -- The Clinton campaign,
planning to spend its $55 million in federal money down "close to
zero" by Election Day, has asked permission to borrow $1 million
to pay bills right after Tuesday's voting.
(Washington Post)
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
ISRAEL AND JORDAN HAMMER OUT AGREEMENT -- Israeli and Jordanian
negotiators at the Middle East peace talks have made the first
tangible breakthrough by agreeing on a document that lays out the
agenda for their talks.
(UPI)
NETWORK NEWS (Thursday evening)
PRESIDENT'S TRIP -- The Bush
campaign, bursting with last-
minute hope and new-found pep,
TRIP NEWS
A-1
seemed almost out of control.
NATIONAL NEWS
A-5
President Bush got a much-
improved forecast from
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
A-15
Michigan Republicans.
NETWORK NEWS
B-1
CLINTON/AIDS -- Bill Clinton is
promising to lead an all-out
effort against AIDS if elected.
This Summary is prepared Monday through Friday by the White House News Summary Staff.
For complete stories or information, please call 456-2950.
TRIP NEWS
BUSH FINDS FUEL FOR FIRE ABOUT STATE, IN SUBURBS
DETROIT -- If President Bush needed any fuel for his finishing
kick, he may have found it in Michigan on Thursday. Bush stormed
the state from east to west, and was visibly boosted by a crowd of
7,300 people in Macomb County who roared when he described the
Democratic ticket as "those two bozos."
At a business group's luncheon in Southgate, he almost
pleaded: "I need your support. I need your vote. Do it on the
basis of economics, character, trust. Whatever it is, I don't
care."
And in Grand Rapids, 10,000 people waited two hours in foot-
stomping cold to give Bush a warm welcome and let him know he can
count on western lower Michigan, a traditional Republican
stronghold. (Patricia Montemurri, Wylie Gerdes and Dawson Bell,
Detroit Free Press)
BUSH TELLS MICHIGAN: 'ECONOMY NOT AS SICK AS THEY SAY'
WARREN -- President Bush campaigned in the heart of "Reagan
Democrat" country Thursday, reassuring worried Americans that "the
economy is not as sick as the opposition would have you believe."
With five days left, Republicans claimed Bush was rapidly
closing in on Bill Clinton in Michigan.
"Michigan is absolutely essential," Bush told a riverfront
rally in Grand Rapids. "We must and we will win the state of
Michigan." If In a state plagued by big layoffs in the auto industry,
Bush trumpeted the message that the economy is not in recession and
has grown "albeit anemically" in the last six quarters.
Taxes and trust are Bush's main issues in the final days, and
he underscored both in a speech to several thousand people at
Macomb Community College
Recalling tough economic times under Jimmy Carter -- and
figuratively moving his foes back to the late 1970s -- Bush said,
"We cannot go back to that Clinton-Gore inflation by raising taxes
and raising spending."
(Terence Hunt, AP)
BUSH INVADES 'OZONE LAND,' GIVES NUTTY POLLSTERS REPRIEVE
NASHVILLE -- President Bush Friday invaded the home state of
Al Gore, who he has dubbed "Ozone Man," and was on the verge of
forgiving pollsters who he called nutty and crazy before their
surveys showed him catching up. "You don't consider them nutty
pollsters anymore?" asked a TV interviewer Thursday night in
Michigan. "Uh, well, I'm less inclined to say that," replied the
President. But then again, maybe they are nutty. "Look, how do
they jump around? How does one poll have (a spread of) of 10
points, and the very same day the other one has two, or 20 points,
and three? Something's strange," Bush said in a televised town
meeting from Grand Rapids, Michigan. Strange polls they may be,
but Bush and his campaign were scouring every one of them for signs
that the President is riding a true surge of support and can beat
the odds to win re-election against the favored Clinton next
Tuesday.
(Steve Holland, Reuter)
White House News Summary
Friday, October 30, 1992 -- A-2
CONFIDENT BUSH BARES HIS KNUCKLES
Campaign Tastes Upset Victory
GRAND RAPIDS -- The surging Bush campaign machine thundered
through Michigan and into enemy territory -- Tennessee -- Thursday
in a bid to stage an upset victory, as the campaign rhetoric on
both sides got nastier.
With his campaign gaining momentum and aides giddy with talk
of a historic upset against Bill Clinton, Bush told a frenzied
crowd outside of Detroit, "You guys are fired up. That makes me
feel like victory is ours."
He later flew here, where President Ford said, "I think
momentum has turned."
(Paul Bedard, Washington Times, A1)
BUSH SAYS CLINTON TRYING TO WIN THROUGH FEAR
GRAND RAPIDS -- President Bush, dismissing his Democratic
rivals as "bozos, Thursday accused Bill Clinton of trying to scare
Americans into believing the economy is worse than it is to cling
to his lead in opinion polls.
"The only way they can win is to convince America we're in a
recession, " Bush told a cheering crowd at an outdoor rally
Bush, who has been urging Americans to ignore opinion polls,
told supporters at a Chamber of Commerce luncheon near Detroit that
he was "encouraged that these polls that we live and die by are
shaping up."
(Laurence McQuillan, Reuter).
BUSH, CLINTON BEGIN FINISH-LINE SPRINT
Upbeat President Charged By Polls, Steps Up Rhetoric
WARREN -- Pumped up by the polls and the moment, President
Bush raced across Michigan Thursday in rhetorical overdrive,
attacking the "way-out, far-out" Democratic ticket on everything
from northern spotted owls to his opponent's draft record.
Bush, during his 12th campaign trip to this vital state, was
introduced at three stops in Detroit suburbs by Gov. Engler, who
called the contest here "dead-even," the Democratic campaign "dead
in the water" and the Bush campaign "hot."
And hot Bush was.
At a midday GOP rally at Macomb Community College, the
President unleased a rhetorical fusillade on Bill Clinton and Al
Gore, attacking their fitness for office, their character and
charging, "My dog Millie knows more about foreign policy than these
two bozos.
In particular, Bush targeted Gore, whom he now calls "Ozone
Man, " or just plain 'Ozone." "You know why I call him Ozone Man?"
the President said. "This guy is so far out in the environmental
extreme, we'll be up to our neck in owls and outta work for every
American. He is way out, far out, man. "
(Ann Devroy, Washington Post, A1)
White House News Summary
Friday, October 30, 1992 -- A-3
BUSH, CLINTON TARGET EACH OTHER AS PEROT TARGETS THE PRESS
Jostling for advantage in key Midwestern states Thursday,
President Bush warned Bill Clinton not to "pick out the drapes" in
the White House yet, and Clinton promised to "slam him home the
last five days."
Clinton accused Bush of distorting his record as governor of
Arkansas in a desperate bid to keep the White House. Bush has been
airing radio ads throughout the South that Clinton people describe
as "baldfaced lies."
"We're going to slam him home the last five days about all of
these incredible, incredibly dishonest things he's said about my
record, " Clinton said before a jog in Toledo, Ohio. "The American
people are going to see him for what he is, a desperate person who
just wants to hold power and doesn't give a rip about them."
Fielding viewers' calls on "CBS This Morning," from Dearborn,
Mich., Bush took on the speculation that his political career may
be almost over.
"Governor Clinton has already started picking out the drapes
in the White House, said Bush. "They're a little premature.
People like somebody (who's) fighting back against all the odds,
and that's what we're doing."
(Charles Green and R.A. Zaldivar, Knight-Ridder)
Bush, Clinton Trade Attacks As Race Stays Tight
President Bush and Bill Clinton are stepping up their personal
attacks on each other as polls showed the race for the White House
remains tight.
Bush on Thursday called Clinton and Al Gore, "bozos" who knew
nothing about foreign affairs while Clinton said Bush has no
standards and would say or do anything to win.
New polls Thursday raised Bush's hopes that he can catch
Clinton by election day.
The CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll had Clinton ahead, 41% to 38%,
with Ross Perot at 16%.
(Robert Green, Reuter)
WHITE HOUSE EFFORT TO ARRANGE TELEVISED TOWN-HALL MEETING FAILS
ST. LOUIS -- White House efforts to arrange a televised town-
hall meeting here with President Bush collapsed after local TV
executives raised questions about the fairness of airing it twice.
The news directors of KMOV (Channel 4), KSDK (Channel 5) and
KTVI (Channel 2) said they had assured the White House that a town-
hall meeting here would get significant live coverage. But they
said they had balked at suggestions that the stations replay a tape
of the event in prime time.
A Washington spokesman for the Bush-Quayle campaign [Tony
Mitchell] said that scheduling problems were responsible for
scrubbing the event, not the failure to secure prime-time exposure.
(Eric Mink, St. Louis Post-Dispatch)
-erom-
White House News Summary
Friday, October 30, 1992 -- A-4
BUSH SAYS MIDEAST PEACE IS POSSIBLE IF HE WINS
GRAND RAPIDS -- President Bush said Thursday that he thought
a final Middle East peace accord would be possible if he won re-
election next week.
Asked if he thought there were chances for a peace settlement
between Israel and its Arab neighbors if he won next Tuesday's
election, Bush replied: "I would think it's possible. I wouldn't
want to hold out any false goal, but I think it's possible."
(Reuter)
BUSH SIGNS BILLS TO HELP DISABLED, POLICE COMMODITIES MARKETS
GRAND RAPIDS -- President Bush on Thursday signed bills
intended to improve federal programs for the disabled and to
strengthen federal oversight of the commodities futures market.
Bush signed the Rehabilitation Act Amendments of 1992 during
a break in campaigning in western Michigan. He said the
legislation was aimed at helping end discrimination against
Americans with disabilities and helping them enter the job market.
The commodities bill outlaws insider trading in the futures
pits for the first time and imposes fines up to $500,000 on brokers
who cheat customers.
(AP)
###
NATIONAL NEWS
CLINTON CAMPAIGN SEEKS PERMISSION FOR LOAN
The Clinton campaign, planning to spend its $55 million in
federal money down "close to zero" by Election Day, has asked
permission to borrow $1 million to pay bills right after Tuesday's
voting.
Bush-Quayle campaign officials immediately attacked the
Democrats' request to the FEC, saying it was an improper attempt
to change campaign rules just before the election to free up money
for last-minute expenses, such as TV commercials.
Fred Malek said at a news conference that the "panicked
request for relief from profligate spending" should be rejected.
"They're broke. They're embarrassed," Malek said. "This is the
first real test Bill Clinton has had in managing federal funds and
he's failed it."
Christine Varney, general counsel to the Clinton-Gore
campaign, who filed the request, said in an interview that her
committee is "targeted to hit close to zero on Nov. 3." But she
said the loan request was "not about politics, and buying more TV
ads, but cash flow."
(Charles Babcock, Washington Post, A16)
BUSH CAMP SAYS CLINTON MISHANDLES CAMPAIGN SUBSIDIES
The Bush campaign Thursday charged rival Bill Clinton was
mishandling his federal campaign subsides and trying to stretch
campaign finance rules, a charge the Clinton camp said was
fabricated.
"Bill Clinton has just acknowledged he has run out of money
five days before the election," Fred Malek said at a news
conference.
But Clinton spokeswoman Avis Lavelle responded, "We're not out
of money, honey. This is just a flat out fabrication."
(Reuter)
DEMOCRAT SCORNS FOE'S 'POLITICS OF DENIAL, DIVISION'
JERSEY CITY -- Fighting to hold together the coalition that
has put him within striking distance of the White House, Bill
Clinton swept across the nation's industrial heartland Thursday
appealing to voters to reject "the politics of denial and division
and blame which the Bush Administration has visited on this country
for too long. "
On the surface Clinton was serene and confident, but as the
days before Tuesday's voting dwindle there is renewed tension
within his campaign and a gnawing worry about the impact of
President Bush's continuing assault on his character and
trustworthiness.
"The man has no core convictions," Clinton said of Bush before
a morning jog in Toledo. "This is a guy here who would literally
say or do anything to get elected. And anytime you're an incumbent
president and you don't have any standards, you have a chance to
win. I have always thought I was the underdog."
(Ed Walsh, Washington Post, A1)
-erom-
White House News Summary
Friday, October 30, 1992 -- A-6
CLINTON HITS BUSH FOR POLITICAL NAME-CALLING
SECAUCUS, N.J. -- Bill Clinton admits he has trouble
respectfully calling his rival "President" Bush -- especially after
the Republicans dubbed the Clinton-Gore team "Bozos" and "crazy"
on foreign affairs during a Thursday night speech.
"I've never done that to him," Clinton said Thursday night on
a televised "town hall" meeting in Secaucus. "I don't mean to be
disrespectful.' When a woman berated Clinton for referring to his
rival as "Mr. Bush" instead of "President Bush," Clinton
defensively said he often gives the incumbent the presidential
title, but -- referring to Bush's Thursday speech -- added, "I'll
tell you this, he referred to Sen. Gore and I as 'Bozo' and
'crazy'" on foreign policy. "Maybe I should always say 'President
Bush, but maybe it is hard for me because of the way that the
campaign has operated,' Clinton said. Clinton noted also that many
media reports have shown Bush campaign ads to be false or
misleading about Clinton's tax proposals. (Thomas Ferraro, UPI)
EUROPEANS PICK CLINTON AS A CLEAR WINNER
BERLIN -- Europeans respect President Bush for his steady hand
at the world's helm as the Soviet empire collapsed, but they
clearly favor Bill Clinton to win the election. Bush gets a lot
of praise around Europe for his foreign policy experience, his
close friendships with many of the continent's leaders and his
ability to cobble together the anti-Iraq coalition during the Gulf
War. But it's Clinton who gets the sort of adulation that put him
on the cover of Germany's respected Spiegel magazine last week,
staring boldly at the future and standing under the headline,
"America's Hope." The cover story called Clinton an
"intellectual," said he had "political qualities unseen in America
since Lyndon Johnson's days" and just about declared him the
election's winner. An accompanying story, quoting only
unidentified sources, said Chancellor Kohl was so confident of a
Clinton victory that his aides had established confidential
contacts with the Clinton camp.
(Juan Tamayo, Knight-Ridder)
CLINTON SAYS AIDS WOULD BE MAJOR PRIORITY IN HIS ADMINISTRATION
JERSEY CITY -- Bill Clinton promised Thursday that if he is
elected president AIDS will be a major priority for him.
In a shift away from his recent effort to steer clear of
controversial topics, he stood in the rotunda of the courthouse
here Thursday night with 500 people crowded inside and said that
schoolchildren have to be told in a clear but sensitive way how
AIDS is transmitted. President Bush and Ross Perot have said very
little about AIDS in the current campaign. Clinton is the only one
to devote an entire speech to it, even though presumably he already
had the support of most AIDS activists and gays. But it may
stimulate a final get-out-the-vote blitz and demonstrate the
Democratic nominee's heightened sensitivity to the subject.
Clinton said he would appoint an AIDS czar, increase funding for
AIDS research and propose a national insurance program with large
pools for self-insured businesses to try to prevent those who
discover they have AIDS from being dumped off their insurance.
(Ann McFeatters, Scripps Howard)
-erom-
White House News Summary
Friday, October 30, 1992 -- A-7
CLINTON SAYS HE OPPOSED USAIR DEAL
Bill Clinton has joined Ross Perot in making a campaign issue
out of the proposed alliance between USAir and British Airways.
Clinton said on "Larry King" Wednesday that if he were
president he would refuse to sign off on the proposed $750 million
deal because, "we get no access to the British market if we do it."
Thursday, however, Secretary Card said that he planned to
decide on the alliance sometime between the election and Dec. 24,
the date either of the two airlines could walk away from the deal.
(Martha Hamilton, Washington Post, F1)
CLINTON'S POLICE FORCE IDEA CALLED 'GOOFY'
Law enforcement officials say Bill Clinton's proposed National
Police Corps is a "goofy idea" that could cost taxpayers more than
$3 billion and divide the country's police agencies.
"It's absolutely absurd, a goofy idea that won't work," said
Officer Ron Robertson, vice chairman of the Labor Committee of the
D.C. Fraternal Order of Police. "He's proposed a plan that doesn't
make any sense, will cost too much money and isn't going to save
anyone a dime in taxes."
(Jerry Seper, Washington Times, A5)
GORE STUMPS IN ECONOMICALLY DEPRESSED NEW ENGLAND
BURLINGTON, Vt. -- Al Gore crisscrosses economically depressed
New England Friday, concentrating during the final days of the
campaign on the small states with much needed electoral votes
"George Bush and Dan Quayle have driven this country into the
ditch. They don't know how to get it going again. They don't have
any proposals for lifting out country and putting our people back
to work," Gore told a rally earlier Thursday in east Texas.
(Judith Crosson, Reuter)
FLOWERS: CLINTON SAVED MY STATE JOB
Bill Clinton interceded with an associate in the state
government to make sure Gennifer Flowers kept her job, Flowers said
Thursday.
Flowers, in a radio talk show [Rush Limbaugh] interview
broadcast Thursday, said she was unaware that Charlette Perry, a
black employee of the Arkansas Board of Review, was passed over for
the job that was given to her.
A grievance board in June 1991 ruled in Miss Perry's favor,
saying she was unfairly denied the position given to Miss Flowers.
"I talked to Bill about it, " Flowers said of Bill Clinton.
"Don Barnes is the head of he agency and I said, 'Charlette
has won this grievance,' and he said, 'Don't worry about it.
Barnes will take care of it. " Barnes, the political appointee who
hired Flowers, rejected the grievance committee ruling, thus
keeping Flowers in the position.
(Bill Gertz, Washington Times, A5)
-
White House News Summary
Friday, October 30, 1992 -- A-8
TIPPER GORE MESHES POLITICS, MOTHERHOOD AT ST. LOUIS RALLY
ST. LOUIS
--
Tipper Gore addressed 200 supporters a rally
at the University of Missouri at St. Louis. She blasted President
Bush and the Republicans on a number of fronts. For instance, on
the environment, she said they touted the view, "We've got ours and
we're not leaving the next generation anything. That's wrong.
She said Bush was calling her husband "Senator Ozone" to
divert public attention from his own "dismal environmental record."
(Jo Mannies, St. Louis Post-Dispatch)
CLINTON LEADS BUSH BY 16 POINTS IN CALIFORNIA, POLL SAYS
SAN FRANCISCO -- Bill Clinton is leading President Bush by 16
points among likely California voters in the final week of the
campaign, according to a poll published Friday. The survey by
independent pollsters California Poll found Clinton maintaining a
large lead over Bush in California despite a huge surge of support
for Ross Perot. The poll of 1,106 likely California voters found
45% would vote for Clinton against 29% for Bush and 23% for Perot.
(Reuter)
THREE MORE POLLS AND BUSH STILL RUNS SECOND
NEW YORK -- Polls released by three television networks
Thursday showed Bill Clinton leading President Bush by 3, 5 and 9
percentage points. Clinton's biggest lead, 44% to 35%, was in an
ABC news tracking poll of 903 likely voters surveyed on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Perot was at 16%, and the poll has a four-point margin
of error. A one-night poll taken Wednesday for NBC News and the
Wall Street Journal had Clinton at 43%, Bush at 38% and Perot at
11%. That was a 2-point gain for Bush and a 4-point drop for Perot
from a comparable poll the previous night. But the changes were
within the 5-point margin of error.
(AP)
PEROT'S SUPPORT SLIPS, BUT IMPACT IN RACE REMAINS
Where His Supporters Go May Determine
If Bush Has A Chance of Winning
Support for Ross Perot is slipping, and where it goes probably
will determine whether George Bush has nay chance of pulling off
an upset in Tuesday's election. The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC
News poll gives Bill Clinton a 44% to 34% lead over Bush among
registered voters, with Perot at 15%. Among those who vote
regularly, Clinton's lead drops to six points, 43% to 37%, with 13%
for Perot.
(David Shribman and James Perry, Wall Street Journal, A16)
QUEST FOR VOTES QUICKENS
The presidential candidates blanket key states this weekend
in a last round of saturation campaigning. President Bush, Bill
Clinton and Ross Perot will seek votes on the road, in a blitz of
TV ads and a flurry of interviews. All three are hoping to open
up a race that the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll finds too close
to call. With 270 electoral votes needed for victory Tuesday:
Clinton leads in 18 states and D.C., totalling 223 votes. Bush is
solid in four with 17 votes. (Richard Benedetto, USA Today, 1A)
-елош-
White House News Summary
Friday, October 30, 1992 -- A-9
ADDING UP THE VOTES THAT COUNT
Bill Clinton heads into the final campaign weekend with far
more electoral votes safely in his pocket than President Bush,
regardless of how tight the national polls show the race getting.
"Right now, this is an Electoral College blowout" say Del Ali
of the Mason-Dixon poll.
Indeed, with 270 electoral votes needed to win, Clinton's
comfortably ahead in 18 states and the District with a total of 223
votes
A new Detroit News Michigan poll today shows Bill Clinton
ahead by 10 points.
(Richard Benedetto, USA Today, 4A)
BUSH, CLINTON GET PERSONAL
President Bush and Bill Clinton spoke with Sam Donaldson on
"Prime Time Live" Thursday night.
Clinton on Bush: "He really has made a total separation in
his own mind between how he is as a person, how he is as a
president, and how he is as a candidate. You saw the story
where
he told Mr. Gorbachev not to pay any attention to what he said in
the domestic political campaign, that he just had to say things to
get elected.
"I think that one of the reasons that his Administration is
in so much trouble today is that he is a nice man in his personal
life
and then as President, hasn't focused with any kind of
intense passion on the real problems of real people in this
country.
("Final Week,' USA Today, 3A)
BUSH UNSURE OF BAKER'S ROLE IN NEXT ADMINISTRATION
President Bush, who has repeatedly accused Bill Clinton of
waffling on key issues, said Thursday he could not say what job
James Baker would have if Bush is re-elected next week.
Asked by Sam Donaldson on "Prime Time Live" Thursday night
whether Baker would be economic policy coordinator for all of
Bush's second term or go back later to the State Department, Bush
at first avoided a direct answer then finally said he did not know
what Baker would do.
According to a transcript supplied by ABC, Bush replied to
Donaldson's question by saying, "I guarantee you that is going to
be the best coordinator we possibly could have not just for
economics
"
"For the entire term?" Donaldson interjected.
" but for domestic, I don't know, Bush continued.
"But, so it's not for the entire term" Donaldson said.
"I didn't say that -- don't know whether it " Bush replied.
"Well, which is it?" Donaldson asked.
"
for the, well, we don't know Sam, I don't know, what are
you going to be doing three years from now?" Bush said. (Reuter)
White House News Summary
Friday, October 30, 1992 -- A-10
REAGAN STUMPS FOR BUSH IN CLOSE STATES
With President Bush tantalizingly close to catching Bill
Clinton, the Republicans plan to launch an offensive today by
bringing out their not-so-secret weapon -- President Reagan.
Reagan will hit the stump today and tomorrow to wrap up four
key states for the incumbent president.
He also taped radio spots this week for Bush.
By calling Reagan out of retirement days before the election,
Bush campaign officials are hoping to tilt the balance in GOP-
leaning states by rallying disaffected conservatives and blue-
collar Democrats.
(Valerie Richardson, Washington Times, A4)
SCHAEFER EXPECTED TO BACK BUSH
Governor Accepts Invitation To Rally
ANNAPOLIS -- Maryland Gov. William Schaefer, a Democrat, will
travel to St. Louis on Friday to appear at a rally with President
Bush and is expected to give his endorsement to the Republican
incumbent.
Schaefer, has a long and warm acquaintanceship with the
President and has frequently spoken of him in flattering terms.
Schaefer spokeswoman Paige Boinest said this evening that
Schaefer decided to make the appearance with Bush after receiving
a call Thursday from Robert Teeter. "He hasn't said anything so
far in the presidential election, and he felt it was time to go
with his conscience," Boinest said.
Boinest said Schaefer plans
to address the rally. She said Schaefer will likely endorse the
President at that time. (Richard Tapscott, Washington Post, D1)
Schaefer Plans To Attend Campaign Rally With Bush Friday
ANNAPOLIS -- Governor Schaefer plans to fly to Missouri Friday
to attend a campaign rally with President Bush
Kevin Igoe, executive director of the Maryland Republican
Party had been asked before Schaefer's plans were announced whether
an endorsement by the governor would help more than hurt, given
Schaefer's low standing in state public opinion polls.
"The Clinton people certainly didn't go out of their way to
get his endorsement, so that certainly tells you something," Igoe
said
"Clearly the governor has had his battled and his enemies
lately, but let's not be crazy about this, he still has a lot of
influence in this state," said House Majority Leader D. Bruce
Poole, a Democrat. "If I were in a battle, I would still rather
have the governor with me than against me, Poole said.
(AP)
RATHER AND CO.
As for differences in reporting, CBS by far was the
toughest on President Bush, while ABC was the most balanced,
according to the Center for Media and Public Affairs, after having
done analysis all the presidential election stories ever reported
by the three networks. It turns out that 72% of the CBS sources
commenting on Bush were critical, while 56% of those commenting on
Bill Clinton were negative. ABC, had only a 4-point difference in
negative evaluations (65-61) ; while NBC had a 9-point gap (69-
60).
("Inside the Beltway," Washington Times, A6)
-
White House News Summary
Friday, October 30, 1992 -- A-11
OUT WEST, QUAYLE SCOURING USUALLY REPUBLICAN STATES FOR VOTES
CASPER, Wyo. -- Campaigning near the edge of the known
Republican world, Vice President Quayle is tying to reclaim the
mountain West for President Bush, telling voters they can't trust
Bill Clinton and shouldn't waste ballots on Ross Perot.
At every stop, Quayle's message was the same, with minor
variations in the wording.
Quayle called Clinton a waffler and said he'd be "a patsy for
that liberal greedy Democratic Congress."
(Walter Mears, AP)
BARBARA BUSH SEEKS TO ENERGIZE GOP WOMEN IN FLORIDA
FORT LAUDERDALE -- Facing a dead heat in Florida with only
five days to the election, Barbara Bush flew into Miami on Thursday
to energize Republican women and turn out the GOP vote.
Mrs. Bush urged 1,000 women at a lunchtime rally at the Omni
International Hotel to work hard for her husband between now and
Tuesday.
The First Lady's speech emphasized Women's issues and each
member of the audience was given a brochure titled "President Bush:
Meeting The Concerns of America's Women."
(Buddy Nevins, Fort Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel)
WE'VE HEARD THAT
After dismissing for months an invitation to appear on MTV by
saying he didn't want to be a "teeny-bopper at 68," the President
of the U.S. has relented. Partially. He'll be interviewed by the
pop music cable network during a whistle-stop train trip through
Wisconsin tomorrow for a Sunday show. No questions from the
audience, though. ("The Reliable Source," Washington Post, B3)
CONSERVATIVE GROUP'S ADS LINK CLINTON-JACKSON
A conservative group placed ads in 27 small newspapers
claiming a Clinton presidency could mean a Senate seat for Jesse
Jackson.
The ads were prepared by the Freedom Leadership Political
Action Committee, a group based in Chantilly, Va., that promotes
conservative issues and candidates and opposes statehood for D.C.
The ads read: "Before you vote for Bill Clinton, ask
yourself: Do you want Jesse Jackson in the U.S. Senate?"
Clinton supports D.C. statehood, and Jackson could run for the
Senate in D.C.
"This appeal to race-based politics has worked for Republicans
in national campaigns in the past," said Frank Watkins, press
secretary to Jackson.
(Scot Lindlaw, AP)
White House News Summary
Friday, October 30, 1992 -- A-12
PEROT SLAPS AT GOP ON LARRY KING SHOW
DALLAS
--
Ross
Perot
slapped at President Bush for living
in an "insulated bubble, failing to acknowledge the weakness of
the economy and believing that all his rivals are "crazy."
"He's history," Perot said of Bush during an appearance on
"Larry King" Thursday night.
Perot defended his controversial charges that the GOP had
targeted him with dirty tricks.
"It is unthinkable that these wonderful people in the
Republican Party might do that?" Perot said in response to a
question from King. "This is the same party that gave us
Watergate. This is the same party that gave us Iran-contra. This
is the same party that's up to it's ears in Iraqgate right now.
This is the same group that is always hands off: 'Gee, we didn't
do it.' So there's a pattern here."
(Marcus Stern, Copley)
PEROT PREDICTS A 'LANDSLIDE VICTORY' TUESDAY
Independent Candidate Says He 'Absolutely'
Regrets Raising Allegation Of Dirty Tricks
DALLAS -- As new polls showed his support eroding, Ross Perot
sought to rally his troops Thursday night, touting a new blitz of
network "informercials" he will run the last two nights before the
election and predicting a "landslide victory" on Tuesday.
Appearing on "Larry King," Perot said he "absolutely" regrets
raising his unsubstantiated allegations of Republican "dirty
tricks" on national television last weekend
Attempting to refute charges that Ross Perot is trying to buy
the presidency, campaign aides to Perot released figures they said
show Perot has been greatly outspent by his two major rivals, and
the aides called for an overhaul of the nation's campaign-finance
system. At the same time, the campaign announced that Perot has
rejected news media request to release his tax returns and medical
records
Perot concluded that releasing his tax and medical records at
this late date would only "deflect" attention from the major
issues, campaign spokeswoman Sharon Holman said
Perot adviser Clay Mulford said that when "soft money"
contributions to the two political parties are counted along with
federal government matching funds received by the Bush and Clinton
campaigns, the Republican and Democratic presidential campaigns
outspent Perot by close to 3 to 1 for the entire year.
(Michael Isikoff, Washington Post, second edition, A24)
EX-PEROT ADVISER DISPUTES CLAIM OF DIRTY TRICKS
CONWAY, Fla. -- Ed Rollins on Thursday disputed Ross Perot's
assertion he left the presidential race because of threatened
Republican dirty tricks against his family.
Rollins said he never heard of any scheme to smear Perot's
daughter with a doctored photo and to disrupt here wedding.
"I can tell you that there would never be any effort on the
part of Republicans or Democrats to go after someone's family when
they had so much other stuff to go after him on," Rollins said.
"What he doesn't want to discuss is the week before he dropped out
of the race, he lost nine points (in the polls). He was dropping
like a rock."
(Scott Morris, Knight-Ridder)
-елош-
White House News Summary
Friday, October 30, 1992 -- A-13
FOR THE RECORD
The Cincinnati Post quoted Oliver North as saying to the
Junior League of Cinicinnati this week that "President Bush has
been honest with the American people regarding the then-vice
president's role in the Iran-contra scandal."
("Inside the Beltway," Washington Times, A6)
FBI RAIDS U.S. TREASURER'S HOME IN CRIMINAL PROBE
The FBI Wednesday raided the home of U.S. Treasurer Catalina
Villalpando to investigate allegations that she collected payments
from a former employer after President Bush named her treasurer,
government sources said.
Villalpando "requested and was placed on administrative leave"
Thursday, Claire Buchan, a Treasury Department spokesman, said
Thursday night. Villalpando has not ben charged.
Federal agents searched five locations for evidence, and their
search warrants cited possible violations of eight statues
governing fraud, bribery, racketeering, conspiracy to defraud the
government, fraudulent claims and false statements.
(Sharon LaFraniere, Washington Post, second edition, A1)
CRAY, U.S. LABS PLAN SUPERCOMPUTER PROJECT
The Department of Energy, stepping up efforts to shift the
priorities of its defense labs to commercially useful research,
Thursday announced that two nuclear weapons facilities would work
with Cray Research Inc. to develop supercomputers capable of
carrying out a trillion calculations per second.
Steven Fried, a DOE spokesman, said the $72 million
government-industry project would be one of the largest cooperative
ventures ever undertaken by the department.
(Daniel Southerland, Washington Post, F2)
GROWTH IN INEQUALITY OF INCOMES HIGHLIGHTED BY 2 REPORTS
Two reports released Thursday underscore the widening gap
between the rich and poor in this country, a trend that began in
the early 1970s and accelerated in the 1980s.
In one study, a New York University economist argues that the
very richest Americans -- the top 0.5% in wealth -- received 55%
of the total increase in real household wealth between 1983 and
1989. The study, released by the Economic Policy Institute, said
wealth among the lowest 60% of families either fell or stagnated
during that period
The second report, a compilation of papers issued by the
Census Bureau, showed that among five industrialized countries
-- Canada, Sweden, Australia, West Germany and the U.S. -- the U.S.
had the most unequal distribution of earnings during the mid-
1980s. Sweden had the least inequality.
(Barbara Vobejda, Washington Post, A4)
White House News Summary
Friday, October 30, 1992 -- A-14
REPORT CRITICIZES JUSTICE DEPARTMENT'S PURSUIT OF CRIMES
A new report by a George Washington University professor
alleges the Justice Department has discouraged and sometime blocked
federal prosecutors and investigators from pursuing environmental
crime cases.
John Turley, who authored the report for Rep. Schumer, said
it is based on interviews with more than two dozen federal
prosecutors and EPA investigators. It contends that the Justice
Department officials have imposed "an unreasonably high standard"
for environmental prosecutions and at time intervened directly with
local prosecutors to lessen the charge or the penalty.
Roger Clegg, a deputy assistant attorney general in the
environmental division, attacked the report in an interview,
saying: "This is an obvious political hatchet job. This was
commissioned by a Democratic congressman and written by law
students supervised by a liberal junior law professor."
(Sharon LaFraniere, Washington Post, A3)
###
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
ISRAEL AND JORDAN HAMMER OUT AGREEMENT
Israeli and Jordanian negotiators at the Middle East peace
talks have made the first tangible breakthrough by agreeing on a
document that lays out the agenda for their talks.
The agreement has been forwarded to Jerusalem and Amman for
final approval, but the head of the Jordanian delegation, Abdel
Salam Majali, said Thursday that "most of the language has been
accepted."
"The year was not spent in vain,' he said. (Sid Balman, UPI)
U.S. SEES PROGRESS IN PEACE TALKS,
TIES IRAN TO AMBUSH OF ISRAELIS
While tying Iran to a terrorist attack against Israel, the
Bush Administration is challenging Arab assertions that Mideast
peace talks are near a standstill.
Assistant Secretary Ed Djerejian on Thursday said all the key
issues -- land, peace and security -- were being addressed in the
talks. He urged the Palestinians to seize the opportunity offered
by Israel for self-rule elections in May.
At the same time, an anonymous senior U.S. official linked
Iran to a bomb ambush by the Hezbollah that killed five Israeli
soldiers on Sunday.
"There is one country that is important, Iran, that has made
it abundantly clear it is opposed to the Arab-Israeli peace
process, and Hezbollah is one of its instruments," the official
told reporters at the State Department.
The official said the U.S. has no evidence that Syria was
involved in the attack.
(Barry Schweid, AP)
U.N. EXPERT SAYS GAPS CLOSED IN IRAQI INFORMATION
BAGHDAD --- The head of the U.N. arms team wound up a 14-day
inspection of sites across Iraq Friday saying his mission closed
several gaps in information on Iraq's weapons programs.
"We have covered all uncleared areas, many gaps were closed,"
Nikita Smidovich told reporters before departure to Bahrain.
On Monday, Smidovich said there were significant gaps in
information provided by Baghdad on its ballistic missile program.
But the Russian expert said as he left his hotel that
intensive inspections in the last two days helped in gathering the
necessary data.
(Leon Barkho, Reuter)
U.S. SOUGHT SAUDI AID TO BLOCK IRAN SUBMARINE BUY
The Bush Administration was so alarmed earlier this year by
the prospective sale of Russian attack subs to Iran that it tried
to interest Saudi Arabia in paying Russia to abandon the
transaction, according to U.S. and British officials. That gambit
failed, as did direct U.S. diplomatic entreaties to Moscow. "It's
not clear that there's a price that would stop the sale that the
Saudis are willing to pay, said one official involved in the
negotiations.
(Barton Gellman, Washington Post, A1)
-more-
White House News Summary
Friday, October 30, 1992 -- A-16
NATIONS VOW MORE AID FOR EX-SOVIETS, CALL FOR QUICKER CHANGE
TOKYO -- Developed nations promised a new wave of aid to hep
the former Soviet republics survive the coming winter but warned
that the West cannot continue to help unless the new states hasten
their switch to market economies and democratic governments.
Addressing leaders from 12 former Soviet republics and some
60 donor nations at the Tokyo Conference on Assistance to the New
Independent States, Lawrence Eagelburger said, "We cannot aid those
who are unwilling to help themselves. Reform must be accelerated.
"The new states must promote competition, tax reform, genuine
property and contract rights
They must stay the democratic
course." But to help the former republics make it through the
winter, Eagleburger announced new U.S. grants of $274 million in
food and medical assistance, plus other loans and assistance
programs valued at $158 million. (T.R. Reid, Washington Post, A30)
U.N. ASKS U.S. FOR HELP IN SOMALI RELIEF EFFORT
U.N. -- The U.N. has asked the U.S. to provide air and sea
transport to ferry equipment and peace-keeping troops to war- and
famine-torn Somalia in an effort to speed lagging humanitarian
relief efforts there.
Officials here say the plan is to move equipment into the
country ahead of peace-keeping forces from Canada, Belgium, Egypt
and Nigeria, thus shortening the time required for an eventual
deployment of the troops.
(Trevor Rowe, Washington Post, A31)
-End of A-Section-
NETWORK NEWS
(Thursday evening, Oct. 29)
CAMPAIGN/PRESIDENT'S TRIP
ABC's Peter Jennings: Unless you live in a battleground state like
Michigan, with its 18 electoral votes, you're not going to see much
of the candidates in person between now and election day. When
Gov. Clinton was in Detroit, the President was out in the nearby
suburbs.
ABC's Brit Hume: For much of today, the Bush campaign, bursting
with last-minute hope and new-found pep, seemed almost out of
control. First it was Bruce Willis introducing the President and
attacking his opponent at a campus rally outside Detroit.
(TV coverage: President Bush waving to supporters.)
(Willis: "I'm pissed off. I am angry that this man can stand up
there and say that he's qualified to be commander-in-chief.")
The President, getting into the spirit, called his opponents two
bozos, and then let fly at Clinton running mate Al Gore's
passionate environmental views. He called Gore, as he has for
days, the ozone man.
(TV coverage: President Bush speaking at rally.)
(President Bush: "You know why I call him ozone man? This guy is
so far off in the environmental extreme, we'll be up to our necks
in owls and out of work for every American. This guy's crazy. He
is way out, far out, man.")
The partisan crowd loved it all, and the President seemed to feed
on that. He worked himself up even more in his finale.
(TV coverage: President Bush speaking to cheering crowd.)
(President Bush: "And let's lead the world to new heights of
prosperity for every single American. Don't let them tear it down.
God bless America. Thank you all very much.
Things seemed to settle down a bit as the President campaigned
later in Grand Rapids with former President Ford, though Ford
seemed not to quite understand a question about how the President
would do in Michigan.
(TV coverage: President Bush leaving Air Force One with Ford.)
(Reporter: "Is he going to win Michigan?"
Ford: "Forget it, forget it.")
Ford, obviously, thought the question was about Gov. Clinton. In
an odd way, though, his answer was an example of something the Bush
campaign hopes could save their man yet, the sheer unpredictability
of politics.
(ABC-2)
NBC's John Cochran: Michigan is a prime example of a state where
Bush is trying to win back voters who went for him four years ago
-- not the Republicans but the so-called Reagan Democrats who have
seemed likely to go for Clinton. Bush got a much-improved forecast
from Michigan Republicans.
(Gov. John Engler: "Bill Clinton's support is eroding in Michigan.
It's eroding across the country.")
-
White House News Summary
Friday, October 30, 1992 -- B-2
Cochran continues:
Bush's aides give much of the credit to Ross Perot, who cut into
Clinton's lead. Bush also feels he has drawn blood with his
attacks on Clinton. His new ad is strictly negative. The
announcer never even mentions Bush's name. It's a 30-second
assault on Clinton.
(TV coverage: President Bush waving to crowd and speaking.)
(Bush ad: "And now Bill Clinton wants to do for America what he's
done for Arkansas. America can't take that risk.")
Bush also includes Al Gore in his attacks when he accuses both
Democrats of knowing nothing about foreign policy.
(President Bush: "My dog Millie knows more about foreign affairs
than these two bozos.
Bush has taken to calling environmentalist Gore Mr. Ozone.
(President Bush: "You know why I call him ozone man? This guy is
so far off in the environmental extreme, we'll be up to our necks
in owls and out of work for every American. This guy's crazy. He
is way out, far out, man. [Applause] Hey, listen. You think you
would save General Motors by slapping more regulation on them?
Less regulation, less taxes. Bring that back.")
(TV coverage: President Bush on stage with Ford.)
Here, Bush was campaigning in the heart of the hard-hit auto
industry and trying to win the so-called Reagan Democrats. Later
in Grand Rapids, Bush was trying to hold the Republican vote with
the help of Gerald Ford, the last Republican incumbent to lose in
a presidential race. The Ford campaign is the one that haunts the
Bush campaign. In the home stretch, Ford came from far behind,
only to lose in a photo finish to a Southern governor.
(NBC-2)
Brokaw reports the prospect of reaching young voters has led the
President to a change of heart. He will appear on MTV on Sunday.
(NBC-13)
CBS's Susan Spencer: The President was in uncommon form today on
this, his 11th trip to the state of Michigan. His mood was buoyed
by a local poll showing the race a virtual tie here.
(Gov. John Engler: "We're in the homestretch. We're closing the
gap. We're going to finish the job on November the third.")
On the Bush campaign these days, you are upbeat or else, the
Michigan poll adding ammo to the claim that the President is on the
move, although Democrats heartily dispute it. Many people are
undecided and Mr. Bush could hardly contain himself today when
warning them against the Democrats, calling them, at one point,
bozos.
(TV coverage: President Bush waving to cheering crowd.)
(President Bush: "If you listen to Gov. Clinton and ozone man, if
you listen to them. You know why I call him ozone man? This guy
is so far off in the environmental extreme, we'll be up to our
necks in owls and out of work for every American. This guy's
crazy. He is way out, far out, man.
But in economically strapped Michigan, hecklers tried to spoil the
fun. The state governor said it doesn't mean a thing.
(Engler: "We've seen the Republican vote come home very solidly
and then in recent days, two or three days now, we're starting to
see the independent vote.")
Michigan is another of those states Mr. Bush won in '88 and badly
needs now. Certainly, he's going all out to show confidence.
-more-
White House News Summary
Friday, October 30, 1992 -- B-3
Spencer continues:
(TV coverage: President Bush on stage with Ford.)
(President Bush: "The American people know what the Arkansas
record was. They know what waffling and character mean. And I am
going to win election on November third.")
Well, perhaps it was the mood of the day. Perhaps it's a sign of
how much trouble Mr. Bush may be in. In any case, he has now
decided to do an interview with MTV, something he laughed at a few
months ago when Gov. Clinton did it.
(CBS-2)
CAMPAIGN/CLINTON
Jennings:
[Inaudible]
That's a small gain of two points from
yesterday for Mr. Clinton, no change for Mr. Bush and a four-point
drop for Mr. Perot. As you know, there are a lot of polls out
there, and it's rather hard to digest the numbers. We'll try in
a minute. But before that, the candidates' day. In many respects,
the race is turning nasty and certainly very personal.
ABC's Chris Bury reports Clinton today all but called the President
a liar. He said Bush had repeatedly distorted his record on
everything from taxes to his accomplishments in Arkansas.
(TV coverage: Clinton jogging with wife.)
(Clinton: "There is no standard of truth in the Bush campaign.
He will say anything. ")
At the University of Toledo, he shifted his attack to the economy,
pointing out new figures indicating growth were due largely to
people spending their savings.
(TV coverage: Clinton speaking at rally.)
(Clinton: "And when Mr. Bush looks at an anxious and frightened
American and tells us this is as good as it gets, that says
something worse about his presidency than anything I could ever
say.")
Later, Clinton urged students to defy predictions that young people
will mostly stay home election day.
(TV coverage: Clinton waving to cheering students.)
(Clinton: "I think you're going to be there. Are you going to be
there?")
Clinton moved from Ohio to Michigan, where polls show his once-
huge lead has narrowed.
(TV coverage: Clinton greeting supporters and waving to crowd.)
(Clinton: "Four more years where we're divided by race, by region,
by income, where we keep losing our manufacturing base. I think
we can do better."
Clinton left for New Jersey to make good on a promise to AIDS
activists that he would give a speech on AIDS before the election.
The political wisdom of that was debated. By scheduling the speech
late in the day, the campaign all but guaranteed it would get only
limited national exposure.
(ABC-Lead)
NBC's Tom Brokaw: This presidential race now is beginning to
resemble a roller derby, with the candidates skating faster and
faster and bumping each other harder on every turn. And like a
roller derby, it's sometimes tough to tell who's leading where.
The latest NBC News-Wall Street Journal Poll shows Bill Clinton's
lead down to five [Clinton 43 percent, Bush 38, Perot 11]. That's
an overnight survey of a little more than 500 likely voters.
White House News Summary
Friday, October 30, 1992 -- B-4
Brokaw continues:
Ross Perot dropped four points in just 24 hours. But then look at
this: Two days of polling by ABC and CNN -- Clinton up by nine in
the ABC Poll, up by only three in the CNN-USA Today poll.
NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports Clinton accused Bush of lying about
his record in a series of radio ads.
(Clinton: "But anytime you've got an incumbent president who will
literally say anything to be elected -- he said in the beginning
he'd say or do anything to get elected. He has put on ads all over
America that are ads, that have been roundly rejected by every
objective specialist who's heard it. He has made up charges about
my record. He will say or do anything. The man has no core.")
The radio ads have been damaging and they are loaded with
misstatements. Claims that Clinton will raise taxes and close
military bases have never been made by the candidate.
(TV coverage: Clinton greeting supporters, posing with Sen. Nunn.)
(Clinton: "The very idea that the word trust could ever come out
of Bush's mouth after what he has done to this country, and the way
he has trampled the truth is a travesty for the American political
system.
Everything will depend on getting voters, many of them newly
registered, to the polls.
(TV coverage: Clinton speaking at rally.)
(Clinton: "I think you're going to be there. Are you going to be
there?")
(Clinton: "Lift this country up, move this country forward.
That's what this election is about. Don't let them take it away
from you.
The Clinton campaign is worried about the inroads Bush is making
in Michigan and Ohio, knowing that whoever wins these two states
could very well win the election.
(NBC-Lead)
CBS's Richard Threlkeld reports Clinton is promising to lead an
all-out effort against AIDS if he is elected. It's a message to
the gay and lesbian community, whose vote he's counting on.
(TV coverage: Clinton speaking at rally.)
Estimates are that at least 5 million gays and lesbians will vote,
and about nine out of 10 are expected to vote Democratic.
(Clinton, May 18: "What I came here today to tell you in simple
terms is I have a vision and you're a part of it. I believe
tomorrow will be better than today if we act. And we're all a part
of the same community and we'd better start behaving as if we
are.")
(Glen Maxey, Texas state legislator: "They've come out of the
closet into the voting booth, and they're going to elect Bill
Clinton and Al Gore.")
Gays are attracted to Clinton's promises to address gay issues, in
contrast to what they say the President has not done.
(Unidentified man: "[Inaudible] HIV issues or AIDS is the fact
that the Administration has not properly addressed the issue.")
And as the Republicans made clear at their convention, no
homosexuals need apply.
(Maxey: "This election is a watershed. It is an election that for
the first time in the history of this country, our issues are being
discussed."
-епоп-
White House News Summary
Friday, October 30, 1992 -- B-5
Threlkeld continues:
Some on the religious right are running a TV ad campaign targeting
Clinton's ties to the gay community. This will mark the first
presidential campaign in which gays and lesbians have begun voting
in a bloc in their own self-interest, and perhaps not the last.
CBS's Dan Rather: President Bush has now called both Ross Perot
and Bill Clinton crazy. When he called Perot crazy, Perot
responded. Today, he said that Clinton's crazy. Has Gov. Clinton
Threlkeld: responded? No, he hasn't yet. And I would be surprised if he
does. He's done this well sticking with his economic message. And
as you know, in politics and other things, you dance with them (CBS-3) that
brung you.
CAMPAIGN/PEROT
Jennings reports Perot ridiculed Clinton last night in Denver. He
criticized Clinton's lack of national experience, but was
particularly hard on Bush. Bush cannot win, he said, because it's
just not in the cards.
Brokaw reports pranksters changed the "HOLLYWOOD" sign to read
"PEROTWOOD." There was no charge of dirty tricks from Perot.
(NBC-11)
Rather: We're down to the final 100 hours of the U.S. presidential
campaign. Most polls, for whatever they may be worth, indicate
that Gov. Clinton may have a lead. President Bush says he has the
momentum and that he is absolutely confident he will close and win.
CBS's Bill Lagattuta reports that last night in Denver, Perot
couldn't seem to walk away from his charges of dirty tricks.
(Perot: "Day after day after day, somebody comes up with some
excuse to attack my integrity. My integrity is a matter of record.
My integrity was never questioned until the Republican dirty-
tricks guys started after it [inaudible]. Let me just say this:
It's all silly putty. It's nothing to do with anything that
concerns the American people, and I just look at it and marvel.")
A group of his former volunteer coordinators today said they may
sue Perot for allegedly running credit checks on them and then
forcing them out of the campaign.
(Cliff Arnebeck, former state chairman: "While we were taking Ross
Perot at his word, he was secretly investigating us.")
Perot's faithful don't care about this. But if Perot wants to
expand beyond his base, he may want to stop sending mixed messages.
When Perot learned a Denver TV station was not running one of his
programs, he made this billionaire-sized promise.
(Perot: "We will get the message through if I have to buy a
station here.")
Perot made another incredible promise last night. He said if
elected, he would have major programs detailed and ready to go on
all the issues by Christmas. He offered no specifics. (CBS-Lead)
White House News Summary
Friday, October 30, 1992 -- B-6
CAMPAIGN/POLLS
Jennings reports the ABC News polling unit says that over time, the
polls generally converge and agree, but not necessarily on a day-
to-day basis. As for the pollsters who work for the candidates,
they try to put the best light on the numbers for public
consumption. But they do have reputations to protect and they
presumably do not shade it for the candidates. Should we believe
the polls? History tells us that reputable polling organizations
don't often make major mistakes.
(ABC-4)
CAMPAIGN/MEDIA BASHING
CBS's Mark Phillips reports that on the surface, it seems like a
simple case of Bush trying to shoot the messenger.
(President Bush: "I love my favorite bumper sticker: Annoy the
media, reelect Bush.
In almost every interview, the media is accused of being biased.
(President Bush, "Good Morning, America": "Pure partisan charge,
picked up by a lot of bleeding hearts in the media.")
At almost every campaign stop, the pollsters are accused of being
wrong.
(President Bush: "Don't believe these crazy pollsters.")
And as for analysts --
(President Bush: "Some crackpot comes on and tells you what to
think. We don't need that in the United States.
The Republican crowds love it, which is part of the point.
(Tom Rosenstiel, Los Angeles Times: "The candidates who are
trailing can bash the media because it's a way of energizing their
base and say: It's not over, don't give up, the polls are wrong. ")
But there's a natural process at play, as well. In politics, as
in sports, the team that's ahead appears to be doing things right.
The trailing team seems like it can't make its plan work. The
debates were a case in point.
(TV coverage: President Bush greeting supporters; with Clinton and
Perot at debate.)
(Kathleen Hall Jamieson, Annenburg School of Communications: "What
reporters did was focus on the visual moment at which Bush looked
at his watch, as the candidate who wanted to be out of that debate.
They could, if he were ahead in the polls, have said, a confident
George Bush looks at his watch, fully believing that when the
debate was over, he'd go back to the race and win the presidency.
Bush has been hammered even by conservative commentators.
(Fred Barnes, commentator: "It's really sort of a personal thing.
It's his style and his way of going about business and sort of the
transparency of the man when he's engaged in politics."
(Kevin Phillips, analyst: "Conservatives and conservative
Republicans, pundits who know George Bush, they don't think that
he's been a worthwhile president. They really don't support him.
They dislike him.")
Of course, Bush isn't alone in having a rough time with the media.
Clinton was virtually written off by charges of marital infidelity
and draft evasion. And Perot's media relationship has been
anything but cozy.
(TV coverage: President Bush greeting supporters and boarding
Marine One; Clinton talking to reporters.)
-more-
White House News Summary
Friday, October 30, 1992 -- B-7
Phillips continues:
(Perot: "I wish you could have been with me backstage with all
those newspeople whining about the fact that I hit them a couple
of times tonight.")
(TV coverage: President Bush greeting supporters.)
But in this game, what goes around comes around. Now that the
polls are tightening, Bush's tune has changed. Last week --
(President Bush: "Don't believe these nutty pollsters."
Today --
(President Bush: "I'm encouraged with the way these polls that we
live and die by are shaping up.")
(Jamieson: "In the final week, George Bush gets an advantage from
the great press conventions that he's condemning.")
In the end, one certain prediction about this campaign can be made.
The winner will think the coverage was honest and fair. The losers
will blame it, at least in part, for their defeat.
(CBS-5)
CAMPAIGN/ADS
ABC's Jeff Greenfield reports on an ad that is supposed to convince
voters that Clinton is thoughtful and prudent. The key message is
that change is safe.
(TV coverage: Clips from Clinton and Bush ads.)
In one Bush ad, Arkansas is depicted as a land of nuclear winter.
The message is that if you vote for Clinton, the world will end.
In Perot's ads, he tells voters they don't have to vote for a
Republican or Democrat. Skeptics say TV ads rarely change many
votes in presidential campaigns. So why do the campaigns spend
millions on them? There's an old saying that goes: Half of all
the money spent on political commercials is wasted; the problem is
nobody knows which half.
(ABC-5)
Brokaw reports Perot and Clinton are shelling out a lot of money
for network time on Monday night. All three candidates are
spending record amounts for their TV advertising blitz. Perot is
spending $23.7 million, Bush $18 million, Clinton $7.1. (CBS-4)
CAMPAIGN/NEW JERSEY
NBC's Bob Kur reports Clinton's lead in New Jersey has dropped from
double figures to single figures in one week. In some towns, the
softness of Clinton's support is beginning to show.
(Marcie Kleinman, housewife: "I feel that he's going to spend more
than he says he's going to spend. I don't think he's getting as
much in taxes that he thinks he's going to get. I think that the
deficit is going to get greater before it improves that well with
Clinton.
(Gordon Stewart, executive: "There's a character-credibility issue
with Clinton that is a problem. I think he is far too political.
Clearly, Perot has turned off former supporters. But there still
is plenty of support for Clinton. What is ominous for Clinton is
that at this late hour, some who seemed partial to him still are
not sure.
(Kerry Glennon, marketing researcher: "Clinton is pro-choice and
that's very important to me. And he seems to want to get down to
business, but I'm having a hard time taking him seriously.")
-елош-
White House News Summary
Friday, October 30, 1992 -- B-8
Kur continues:
According to a statewide poll, three in 10 New Jersey voters say
they might still change their minds. And 15 percent say they
probably won't decide until they get in the voting booth. That's
why Clinton is back here tonight and planning to return before
election day.
(NBC-3)
CAMPAIGN/GUN CONTROL
ABC's Mark Potter reports on the candidates' gun-control policies.
(President Bush: "Today, the fear of crime strikes too many
American families.")
(Clinton: "We've got to save these kids that are being shot in our
schools.
(Perot: "People have to be able to defend themselves.'
(TV coverage: President Bush walking to stage; Clinton accepting
police endorsement.)
(Clinton: "We have the obligation to check the backgrounds of
people who are going to be carrying guns on our streets.'
(President Bush: "I've been more go after the criminal than it is
the gun owner.")
(Perot: "The Brady Bill, I agree with that it's a timid step in
the right direction, but it won't fix it. So why pass a law that
won't fix it?")
Critics say the Brady Bill won't stop criminals.
(Wayne Le Pierre, NRA: "They buy them on the black market or they
steal them. Every study shows that.
(Sarah Brady: "No, it is not going to cut out all handgun deaths.
But it's a start and it's going to save some lives.")
Clinton favors the Brady Bill, Perot does not. Bush prefers
tougher penalties for crimes committed with guns, and instant
computer background checks in gun shops. But this year, the
President said he would reluctantly support the Brady Bill as part
of an overall crime bill. That bill died earlier this month in the
Senate. The bill's sponsor said the President never really wanted
a gun-control bill.
(Brady: "Very frankly, I hold him responsible for today not having
the Brady Bill passed into law.")
Another issue is semi-automatic assault weapons. Bush banned the
importation of foreign-made assault rifles. But foreign weapons
imported before the ban can still be sold over the counter. Also,
tens of thousands of domestic versions are legally made and
marketed every year. Clinton wants the manufacture banned.
(Clinton: "We ought not to have assault weapons, whose only
purpose is to kill, in the hands of people on the street when the
police don't have a fighting chance. ")
Neither Bush nor Perot has called for a manufacturing ban on
domestic assault weapons.
(TV coverage: President Bush making speech.)
Polls show most people support both the Brady Bill and an assault-
weapon ban. In fact, many believe the only way to reduce gun
deaths significantly is to ban handguns, which none of the
candidates is proposing.
(ABC-12)
-more-
White House News Summary
Friday, October 30, 1992 -- B-9
CAMPAIGN/EARLY RETURNS
NBC's Robert Hager reports the networks say they won't delay
projecting a presidential winner. Four years ago, every network
made their declarations before polls closed in the Western time
zone. Congressional staffers from both parties today asked network
lobbyists for voluntary restraint.
(NBC-4) (
CAMPAIGN/MOSCOW WAGERING
ABC's David Ensor reports some people in Moscow are betting on the
U.S. election. Current odds have Clinton at 12.5-10, Bush at 18-
10 and Perot at 36-10.
(ABC-13)
CAMPAIGN/CHANCELLOR COMMENTARY
NBC's John Chancellor comments Bush invokes the memory of Harry
Truman, and no one mentions the Reagan Revolution anymore. And
when was the last time you heard Bush even say the words "Ronald
Reagan." For that matter, have you heard Clinton say much of the
suffering of black people in the inner cities. This is not a year
for traditional themes in either party. The summation of this
year's politics is written on a sign in Clinton's headquarters.
The sign reads, "It's the economy, stupid." For the Democrats,
hitting the Republicans on the economy is better than singing old
party songs about civil rights, union solidarity and urban
problems. For the Republicans, the economy has overwhelmed the
wedge issues. It's the economy, stupid.
(NBC-12)
ILLINOIS/SENATE RACE
ABC's Cokie Roberts reports Carol Mosely Braun's once-big lead has
shrunk dramatically. With Clinton so popular, she is trying to
ride his coattails.
(TV coverage: Clinton on stage with Braun.)
(ABC-6)
URBAN POLICY
Peter Ueberroth and Mayor Ray Flynn of Boston discuss urban policy.
Ueberroth: Nobody cares about the inner city. They listen to the
four debates, they don't give a damn about the inner city. Too
bad. They're not paying attention to a real cancer.
Flynn: Let me tell you something. You are going to see one of the
largest votes in the history of any major election coming out of
America's cities. And the reason for it is because the people in
American cities are hurting economically.
(NBC-7)
-end of News Summary-
Friday Follies
AAAH, I THOUGHT I HEARD
A NOISE DOWN HERE. YOU
DON'T FOOL ME FOR A
MINUTE,MR:BUSH MINUTE, MR. BUSH.
PERO
- a look at politics through the eyes of the political cartoonist -
***
"I don't care a straw for your newspaper articles. My constituents don't
know how to read. But they can't help seeing them damned pictures."
(William Marcy "Boss" Tweed speaking of Thomas Nast, 1871)
WHITE HOUSE NEWS SUMMARY SPECIAL EDITION
VOLUME IV ISSUE 42 -- October 30, 1992
©
TTEWASHNSTON TIMES
METAMORPHOSIS - -92
DONT WORRY, FOLKS!
I'LL WORK WELL
WITH THESE GUYS
ABC
CONGRESS
Time for a joint or two,
a little hubba-hubba,
a side trip. maybe
LONDON
MOSSÃOW
CLINTON
BENEN192
:
REWASHINGTON TIMES
CARNER
UNCLE WILLIE
WANTS
YOU
FOR THE
U. S.
MILITARY
RECENTLY RELEASED EVIDENCE SUGGESTS CLINTON MAY
HAVE BEEN IN MOSCOW BEFORE HIS OXFORD TRIP
BY MEYER
TIMES
CORPY MBM5 and
CORREL
REMEMBER
I'M THE
CANDIDATE OF
CHANGE!
NO
GULF WAR
FREE
FREE
TERM
PRO-
TRADE
TRADE
LIMITS
GROWTH
PRO-
YES
UNITS
TERM
ENVIRONMENT
YES
CHURCH
SCHEDULE
12 NOON:
CLINTON
WEDDING
VOTERS
SYMO.
HI! THIS IS GEORGE - I THOUGHT WE MIGHT HAVE LUNCH
TOGETHER AND you COULD SET TO know THE BETTER-BELL M
DEFICIT,
UNEMPLOYMENT
CLINTON
OLUTIONS
"SORRY-IT'S EMPTY..."
BILL, YOU'RE
APPARENTLY THE VOTERS ARE
STILL AHEAD
WILLING TO OVERLOOK YOUR
IN THE POLLS.
PATTERN OF CHANGING YOUR STORY
THE
AND ARE ABOUT
TO ELECT YOU
shop
PRESIDENT.
MAY
and
IF THEY'RE
TELLING THE
TRUTH.
TOLES
UMI w MESS SUND.
I THOUGHT YOUR GRIN
10@HTZ THE BURGALO your
MIGHT MEED A REST.
ON THIS REMOTE
WMI
MOUNTAINTOP? NEVER!
HE WONT FIND
US, WILL HE?
TAKE DOGBARK. SOUTH
DAKOTA, FOR EXAMPLE.
OH.MY GOD! RUN,
312 LEATHER-CRAFT
IMOGENE! IT'S CLINTON
WORKERS AT AN ANNUAL
WITH MORE SPECIFICS!
SALARY OF-
Clinton continues to
campaign in what
are
clop!
Were a for considered
clap Clap! CLAN
CUP.
CLINTON
articles
Republican holds strong-
CLAR!
CLINTON
ANOTHER REPLELICAN
PLINTON
Mike Luckevch ATLANTA CONSTITUTION
MANEY
Chicagoribune
Y'ALL HEAR
A GIANT
(
SUCKIN'
CLINTON
SOUND?
*GORE*
.
PEROT
Dropped out of the race
cause the Republicans were
gonna switch the groom at
my daughter's Weddin' with a
poodle. Can you imagine havin'
a poodle for a son-in-Paw? I find
that fascinatin! Do you know I have
tiny transmitters implanted in my skull ?
MikeLuckovich
ATLANTA CONSTITUTION
ETTA ©1992 FORT WORTH STAR-TELEGRAM
HULME
NEA-
U
U
EVERYTHING 15
UNDER CONTROL,
INSPECTOR PEROT,
EXCEPT FOR
YOU,
U
82
LITTLE KID ROSS
PRESIDENT ROSS
PEROT SET LOOSE
PEROT INCHARGECF OF
INA CANDY STORE!"
THE C.I.A.AND F.B.I. 110.
Di
The Hinmi Herald
G1992
5000
1000
88800
"Y'SEE,AH KNEW IT!! YOU GUYS REALLY ARE SPYIN' ON ME!!OKAY?!!"
DIRTY
TRICKSTERS!
IXS you
3
E
HIDDEN MIKE
ROSS PEROT'S WORLD
0
E:
$
Paranoia and
Common Sense
AT
merge as the
world goes insane
TAPPED
S
THEM
US
THE
THEM
THEM
SPY
PICTURE OF
DAUGHTER
MONSTER
(ALTERED)
AVTH
B
Mike Luckavich ATLANTÀ CONSTITUTIONER
Deficit, solved! Urban decay, solved!
Unemployment, solved! Health-care mess,
8
solved Is it lunchtime already ?..
President Perot
FIRST DAY ON THE JOB.
wright
EONGRESS
LOOK, IT'S SIMPLE!
I'LL JUST GO TO
CONGRESS, WE'LL
TALK, COME UP
WITH THE BEST
SOLUTION TO OUR
PROBLEMS AND
FIX 'EM!!
ROSS PEROTS PLAN ON
WORKiNG WiTH CONGRESS
AND GETTING THiNGS MOViNG
Ignore him
and Maybe
Excuse me Maam,
he'll go
but can WE hold hands?
away
Excuse me Ma'am.
excuse me...
You
CONGRESS
CARTOONIST ENDORSEMENT
RE-ELECT BUSH
Four years ago, he took the crawn.
We read his lips without a frown.
WIDE
Four years ago,we made him boss;
He gave US KWAIL, oh, what a loss.
BIG
FOREHEAD
Our schools still hurt, our cities rot;
=u=
©1592 THE ITMS
George IS environmental- NOT!
Recession grips and tears our land;
George draws a line across the sand.
POINTY
NOSE,
His fractured speech and funny smile.
NOS
His high forehead and wered hairstyle,
LONG
CHIH
STRETCH
His kinder, gentler points of light
SMILE
ME
I draw all day and dream at night.
Cartoonists all across this land
See Clinton-Gore as awfully bland,
Alas, dear voters, end my fears
I need George Bush-please,
FOUR MORE YEARS!
HAND LEMAN
KAL
BACTO. SUN
cw SYND.
CAN YOU BELIEVE THAT
SCREWBALL TEXAS BILLIONAIRE?
MR. EL LOOPO?!
MR PEROT NOID, OVER THERE?
WE'RE TALKING HEY! BIGTIME DIRTY
-you know-
ALLEGATION WISE,
HURLING, SLINGING
INFERRING!
HOLD ON NOW!
NO MUCKRAKER, ME!
NO DIRTY TRICKSTER!
DEMOCRATS?
THOSE (WATCH YOUR WALLETS)
TAX & SPENDMEISTERS
AFFIRMATIVE!!
Republicans??
NEGATORIE!!
NEVER!!
A
NEVER
ALL YOU HAVE TO DO IS
LAND ONE BIG KNOCKOUT
PUNCH. THROW A HAIL
MARY PASS AND HITA
GRAND SLAM HOME RUN,
VAWIES
BELERA
HEY. 1 WASN'T
EXACTLY!!
NAVIGATING!
(11992
THANK YOU,BUT
IVE HAD QUITE
NONONONO ! UM
ENOUGH NOW
I HAVE SOME GUM YOU
A LITTLE SONG
CAN CHEW! UH,HEY
HOW 'BOUT SOME
MORE PIZZA?
PRETZEL ? HOTDO6?
ANYTHING!!!
_I FEEL
MOMENTUM!!!!
400
WHEN I MAKE
A MISTAKE,
I ADMIT IT!
NOT LIKE THIS
TAX-AND-SPEND
CROWD!
WELL,
YOU
ITS OK.
CANT HAVE IT
GEORGE,
WE CAN
JUST PICK
BOTH WAYS WHEN
THE AKCHOVIES
OFF
YOU'RE PRESIDENT!
I MADE A MISTAKE,
I ADMIT IT AND IT'S
NOT GONNA
THE MOTHER OF ALL MOTHERS
Hi!
I'M BILL'S
MOM.
I
Re-elect President
NEED WORK
BUSH
EXPERIENCED PROFESSIONAL
SEEKS ANY POSITION.
PLEASE HELP
RESUME AVAILABLE
'92
UPON REQUEST
BUSH
STAFF
The Hiami Herald
Unless You Want More Taxes
TWO reasons to vote for Bush:
CUNTON'S
PLAN:
TAX
SPEND
PEROTS
PLAN:
TWEEDLEDUMB
TAX
TWEEDLE-
TAX
DUMBER
AFTER A
THese GUYS
CAREFUL
as
AREN'T REAL.
STUDY of THE
IIIII
THeY'Re JUST
:-
CANDIDATES,
THE DEBATES, AND
A BUNCH DOTS! OF
THE RHETORIC,
UNDECIDED VOTER
EMILY BETH
HAMMORLOCK
REACHES THE
G
ONLY POSSIBLE
G
CONCLUSION,
Mike Keefe THE DENVER POST
Wat HANDELSHAN Plaz THE THUES ITMS
-APOLOGIES TO
GREAT PUMPKIN?
NO, I'M STILL WAITIN'
FOR A GREAT CANDIDATe!..
-
ELECTIC
DRAWS
NEAR
AKTRON BEACONJOURNAS92
BOK
THERE ARE SEVERAL POINTS TO
I DON'T CARE
KEEP IN MIND HERE.
1. 1 WANT A KENNEDY look
HOW YOU CUT IT,
2. BUT WITH A REAGAN POMPADOUR
JUST DO IT.
3. YOUTHFUL
4. BUT MATURE
BUT WATCH THE EARS
5. LONGISH
6. BUT CLOSE CROPPED
7. I WANT HIMTO TO PAY FOR IT
8.......
V
DeMoCRaTS iN THe WHiTe
edSTeiN'92
ROCKY MTN.
House? WHaT aRe THeY Like?
News-Nea
Do THEY SPeak ENGLiSH?
W
WHAT Do THEY eat ? ?... CaN
aNYoNe REMEMBER?
GRO
DEMOCRATS
ECONOMIC
FITNESS
THLUNK!
1-2-3, TAX AND
SPEND, SPEND,1-2-3,TAX TAX
AND SPEND,AND
A
TAX AND.
at
SPiN'92
IF YOUDEMOCRATS WILL
STOP TELLING LIES ABOUT THE
REPUBLICANS. WE'LLSTOP
TELLING THE TRUTH
ABOUT YOU!
ABE, BABY, THIS
SPEECH NEEDS A
SOUND BITE !
dry, This lead in is
there's
jazz it up kinda a bit!!
negative
nothing
about your
opponent in here
continent yearscore and Four our fathers on this seven
WHAT ABOUT
MOTHERS?
Bad term
for family your
conceived dedicated terty in anew to nation,
SAY
values image!
U.S.A.OR
CAREFUL, WE
IMPLY SUPPORT
proposition Now wated that allmen the
AMERICA
DON'T WANT TO
work the
FOR QUOTAS
in a gr eat are engaged equal.,
in trust theme
somewhere
WHAT
CHANGE REBEL STORM" TO "OPERATION
TOO, Y'KNOW
THEY VOTE
MIKE THOMPSON
@
THE STATE RESISTER
92
COFLEY NEWS SERVICE
IF THE BUSH AND CLINTON SPEECHWRITERS HAD WORKED FOR LINCOLN
THEY ALL LIED To ME!
EVERYONE LES TO ME!
TWO NEGATIVES= 1 POSITIVE
1 NEGATIVE AND
1POSITIVE = 1 NEGATIVE
PUT DOWN!! ME.
SOZIS ISS
DEMOCRAZY
AT VORK,
THE ONLY NICE THING ABOUT ELECTIONS ANY MORE IS SEEING THE POLL-TAKERS GETTING
HAULED OFF TO THE FUNNY FARM AFTERWARDS.'
HOW LONG DO
we DO THIS?
UNTIL we WIN
THE eLeCTION!
LIBERALS
MODERATES
SYNDICATE
so SIR IF
THE ELECTION
WERE HELD
TODAY
I'D FALL ON MY
KNEES AND WEEP
UNCONTROLLABLY
WITH JOY.
POLL
THE ECONOMY HeRe
MINE TOO!
SAME HeRe!
IN D.C. MUST Be PICKING
WHAT'S YOUR
UP-MY BUSINESS HAS
LINE OF WORK?
NeveR BeeN BETTER!
O
W
ReAL eSTATe
MOVING AND
RéSUMéS
STORAGE
W
DERING
ARKANSAS DEMOCRAT- GAZETTE
THAT'S iT! I'M sick OF
THE LiBERAL BiAS OF T.V. NEWS.
FROM NOW ON I'M Not GONNA
THAT'S iT! THE
WATCH ANYTHING BUT SPORTS!
WORLD SERiES
click
is OVER YET
ANOTHER DEVASTATING
Loss TO FOREiGN
COMPETITION DURiNG
3
THE BUSH ADMiNiSTRATiON!
Look, it's
football season,
VOTE ME-
now..Why don't
ELECT ME'S
BETTY WELLS
you girls find
U.S. SENATE
something to
do, OK ?
ALICE SENATE
MARGULIES
01992 THE RECORD
NEW JERSEY
TRADED TO LARRY
I'VE
FOR DAN MARINO
BEEN
AND A PLAYER
@
WHAT?
TO BE NAMED
ole
LATER
The
#
C.
as
WHEN FANTASY FOOTBALL GETS OUT of CONTROL
Rack MTNNetus
AS A CANADIAN, I WAS
OUTRAGED AT YOUR
COLOR GUARD FLYING
OUR FLAG UPSIDE DOWN!
HOW COULD THIS
HAPPEN??
wordlid
U.S.MC.
509
BEATS
ME!
AMERICA
HIJON
and THE
CARISON
MR.DENG and MR.YELTSIN DO LUNCH
A
The Christian Science Monitor
HA, THERE I WAS, WEEDING THE DAISIES IN MY FLOWER
GARDEN, HA WHEN SUDDENLY MY HOE STRUCK A METAL
OBJECT, HA IT TURNED OUT TO BE THIS OLD TRUNK, HA
IMAGINE THAT, HA!
GARNER
.92
CODE
TEWASHINGEN
"
RECORDS
the
DER THE HOUSTON RSTO
NGUYEN, WE WERE BROKE
NATIONAL BANK
OF VIETNAM OF
It E
P.O.M.
RA
P.O.W.
ARCHIVES
P.O.W.
ARCHIVES
!!!!
WHO'RE You?!
THAT SOUNDS
LIKE SOMETHIN'
CHRISTIANS
neighbor. Love thy
A QUEER WOULD
Against
GAYS
HOMOS
BE
SAY!..
Mike Luckovich
Backy's a fairy princess.
Jimmy's a clown. Chips a
cowboy and Madonnas a
naked sado-masochist
BY MIKE LUCKOVICH FOR THE ATLANTA CONSTITUTION
HALLOWEEN 1965
STAR TRIBUNE
¡¡¡¡MMMMM33333
T/VM/10
$4995
byMADONNA
White House News Summary
Friday, October 30, 1992
1:30 P.M. EST/12:30 P.M. CST NEWS UPDATE
CNN-USA TODAY POLL (New York/Reuter) -- Bill Clinton and President
Bush are in a virtual dead heat in the latest CNN/USA Today
tracking poll, CNN Headline News reported. The poll gave Clinton
41% and Bush 40% of the "likely voters" surveyed. Support for Ross
Perot dropped from 16% to 14%. Among all registered voters, the
poll shows Clinton leading 42%-to-36%, with Perot at 16%.
ELECTORAL PICTURE (Scripps-Howard) -- Bill Clinton's electoral vote
lead has shrunk along with his poll ratings in the final week of
the campaign, but he would win the presidency if he doesn't slip
any further. Clinton no longer is headed for an electoral vote
landslide, however. And if President Bush's surge continues, he
could possibly be re-elected.
Clinton leads in D.C. and 27 states with 330 electoral votes.
Bush leads in 18 states with 158 votes. Five states with 50 votes
are a tossup. In the last week, 15 states have improved for Bush.
PENNSYLVANIA POLL (Harrisburg/UPI) -- A new statewide poll released
today shows Bill Clinton holding a 10-point lead. The poll
conducted by Penn State-Harrisburg and Millersville University,
showed Clinton with 38%, Bush 28% and Perot with 15% with 19%
undecided.
PRESIDENT'S CAMPAIGN (Nashville/Robert Burns, AP) -- President Bush
attacked Gov. Clinton's economic plan, calling it "trample-down
economics" that will lead to a bloated federal bureaucracy and put
a regulatory stranglehold on small businesses. "It will not work,
and most Americans know it," Bush told a convention of Kentucky
Fried Chicken franchise owners at the sprawling Opryland Hotel.
Bush was attempting to poke a hole in Clinton's charge that the
Republicans throughout the 1980s practiced "trickle-down economics"
that benefited the wealthy at the expense of harder economic times
for the rest of the people.
Bush also attacked Clinton's proposal to address the AIDS
crisis by, among other things, appointing an AIDS czar to
coordinate federal efforts in combating the disease. "What Gov.
Clinton didn't mention is that he's done very little for AIDS in
Arkansas," Bush said. "We don't need a bureaucratic czar in the
nation's capital. We need more care and compassion in our homes."
CLINTON CAMPAIGN (East Rutherford, N.J./Thomas Ferraro, UPI) --
Bill Clinton took his hard-charging drive for the White House to
a New Jersey diner and national television early today, before
heading off to a get-out-the-vote rally in Pittsburgh, and a town-
hall meeting in Detroit.
At a diner, Clinton was asked about President Bush's
relentless attacks on his character. "All I can tell you is that
I got the trust of the people in my state the old fashioned way -
- I earned it," he said, citing figures showing strong job growth
and low taxes in Arkansas. Most of the questions dealt with the
ailing economy as Clinton went from table-to-table, talking to
people about their problems in finding work and dealing with rising
insurance costs.
White House News Summary
Friday, October 30, 1992 -- 2
(East Rutherford/Michael Posner, Reuter) -- Holding on to a
slim lead over President Bush, Bill Clinton embarked on the final
four days of his campaign denying he was unfaithful to his wife.
In the final sprint to Tuesday, he said he would raise the level
of debate above the volley of name-calling that has peppered the
race in recent days.
At a diner here, a questioner on ABC's Good Morning America
asked Clinton whether someone who was not faithful to his wife
could be faithful to the people he serves. "Yes, I think we've
seen that in presidents of the past," Clinton quickly responded.
"Based on American history, the answer is yes. But if you're
implying that I am not (faithful), you are wrong," he added.
Clinton also discussed with reporters the name-calling that
has highlighted the last few days of the campaign. Bush said
earlier this week that his dog Millie knows more about foreign
policy than Clinton and Sen. Gore, labeling the pair bozos and
crazies. "Forget about me -- Al Gore has been one of the steadiest
authorities on foreign policy," Clinton said when asked about those
epithets. "Let me say this: There's a way to press and be
aggressive without calling them names like calling them 'bozo' and
'crazy, he said, adding he was going to lift the level of
campaign rhetoric.
(Reuter) -- Clinton slugged back on the question of trust,
comparing President Bush's assault on his credibility to Richard
Nixon's attacks on John Kennedy in 1960. Clinton asserted on ABC's
Good Morning America that Nixon had said of Kennedy, "You can't
trust him, which is [as] ironic [as] for Nixon to say, 'You can't
trust Kennedy. Clinton didn't suggest Bush was Nixon, but said
the president's credibility was questionable.
Al Gore also kicked back at the Bush attacks. Responding to
Bush's assertion that the Democratic nominees were "crazy," Gore
said on NBC's Today that "one definition of insanity is doing the
same thing over and over again and expecting a different result."
Gore associated that with Bush's unsuccessful efforts to revive the
economy, which Gore said "have given us the worst result since
Herbert Hoover."
FROHNMAYER COMMENTS (Cambridge, Mass./AP) -- Former NEA Chairman
John Frohnmayer says the Republican presidential ticket is "anti-
art, anti-intellectual and anti-democracy." Frohnmayer, speaking
before the MIT Council for the Arts, criticized Vice President
Quayle's attacks on what Quayle calls the nation's "cultural
elite." "In a democracy, those who think are not the elites,"
Frohnmayer said. "They are the patriots. Sheep-like followers
belong in totalitarian states."
HOME SALES (AP) -- Sales of new homes fell 1.0% in September, the
first drop in five months despite the lowest mortgage rates in
nearly two decades, the government said.
###
--- Friday --- October 30, 1992 ---
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---
THE DAILY BRIEFING ON AMERICAN POLITICS
---
Updated Each Morning At 11:50
(c) The American Political Network, Inc.
282 North Washington Street, Falls Church, VA (703) 237-5130
NATIONAL POLL UPDATE
SPOTLIGHT
CNN/USA/GALLUP TRACK
1 pt.
P.O.S. (GOP)
3 pts
BETTER WATCH SENATE WATCH
B/GROUND TRACKING
5 pts
ABC TRACKING
9 pts
Only weeks ago, Dems were
NBC/WSJ of RVs
10 pts
dreaming of expanding their
Note: CNN and B/GROUND include
57-43 Senate edge to a
last night's samples. (#21-25)
filibuster-proof majority.
IN THE STATES: DETROIT NEWS
But the stretch run has
has Clinton by 10. (#9) TX
shown overall GOP gains.
poll has Bush by 8. (#10) Slim
Clinton lead in NC. (#8)
GOP VULNERABLES: Though
Seymour still looks gone,
MD: DEM GOV BACKS BUSH (#11)
D'Amato is close (some say
ahead) and Kasten may be
BUSH TO DO MTV SHOW 11/1 (#3)
back in the fight.
DEM OPEN SEATS: Field
HOTLINE TURNOUT STUDY III
has Herschensohn in a TIE
Pollsters tell how they
with Boxer; IL dept. rules
screen for likely voters (#13) ;
Braun owes Medicaid bucks;
HOTLINE look at registration,
Chandler narrows Murray's
turnout in key states. (#12)
wide lead; and Considine
has made it a horse race.
HOUSE: TROUBLED INCUMBENTS
SOUTHERN DEMS: Faircloth
Among the nervous: Mavroules
catches vulnerable Sanford;
(D-MA), Wilson (D-TX), Zeliff
Hollings, Fowler face final
(R-NH), Erdreich (D-AL). (#18)
charges from opponents.
DEMS CAN TAKE HEART: From
1996 CAULDRON ALREADY BUBBLING
Yeakel's endurance; Rauh's
As KEMP unloads on BUCHANAN,
lead; DeWine's mean shots
convention "family values,"
at Glenn; AuCoin's late
DOLE says he won't rule out
move. And of course: DiFi.
another bid. (#5)
QUOTE OF THE DAY
"The blowhard chickened out and blew me off."
-- ABC's Sam Donaldson on Perot's "PrimeTime Live" pass,
DALLAS MORNING NEWS, 10/30. (#6)
THE APN BULLETIN BOARD
FROM TODAY'S GREENWIRE: Hill report charges Justice Dept.
"discouraged" and blocked pursuit of enviro. crimes.
FROM TODAY'S DAILY REPORT CARD: Fourteen school design teams
in NYC win grants to create "New Visions" schools.
FROM TODAY'S ABORTION REPORT: New poll shows support is
"slipping" for MD's pro-choice abortion ballot question.
FROM TODAY'S AMERICAN HEALTH LINE: CA voters split on "Death
With Dignity" prop. legalizing physician-assisted death.
HOTLINE/DATABASE INDEX
WHITE HOUSE '92
CLINTON: Bush attacks take him off message; AIDS speech. (#1)
PEROT: One more for Larry. (#2)
BUSH: "Bozos
...
Rathole
...
Pissed off
...
Ozone man." (#3)
ADS: Bush forgoes election eve plea. (#4)
GOP '96: Dole doesn't rule it out; Kemp blasts Buchanan. (#5)
PRIMETIME LIVE: Donaldson interviews two; snubbed by Perot. (#6)
CANDIDATE SCHEDULES (#7)
THE TOP TEN
HOTLINE SCOREBOARD (#8)
MI (#9)
TX (#10)
MD (#11)
ISSUES '92:
TURNOUT: Many states witness records, but
....
(#12)
THE POLLSTERS' GUIDE TO FINDING THE LIKELY VOTERS (#13)
SENATE WATCH:
SCOREBOARD (#14)
IL (#15)
NH (#16)
NC (#17)
HOUSE RACE BRIEFINGS: Vulnerable incumbents, more. (#18)
CALIFORNIA CABLE:
SENATE "A" (#19)
SENATE "B" (#20)
POLL UPDATE
NBC/WSJ: Clinton 44%, Bush 34%, Perot 15% (all RVs). (#21)
ABC TRACKING: Clinton 44%, Bush 35%, Perot 16%. (#22)
CNN/USA TODAY: Today's margin down to 1 point. (#23)
BATTLEGROUND '92 TRACKING: Today's margin at 5 points. (#24)
PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES: GOP benchmark within margin. (#25)
TV MONITOR (#26)
???? OVERLOOKED ????
BRETT KIMBERLIN, CALL YOUR OFFICE: Today's TAMPA TRIBUNE
runs a front-page story detailing the history of ex-Green Beret
Liam Atkins, arrested in Georgetown 10/17 after -- he claims --
threatening to talk about his knowledge of Iran-Contra and his
relationship with Bush and WH counsel Boyden Gray.
WHITE HOUSE '92
*1 CLINTON: BUSH ATTACKS TAKE HIM OFF MESSAGE; AIDS SPEECH
"Warning he was going to 'slam' President Bush" in the final
stretch, Clinton "courted the working class and in-city
residents" in OH, MI and NJ. In Detroit, Clinton appeared with
civil rights legend Rosa Parks. Clinton compared himself to JFK,
"who he said was the last politician until this election to
'dare' his generation to change." Though the day was "supposed
to be devoted to the economy and the AIDS speech" in NJ, Clinton
went off his message and attacked Bush for the 2nd day in a row
(Oman, AR DEMOCRAT-GAZETTE, 10/30). Clinton accused Bush of
"fearmongering" and "mudslinging": "The man has no core of
conviction.
The American people see him for what he is: a
desperate person who just wants to hold power and doesn't give a
rip about them" (mult., 10/30). Those comments came before a
"statesmanlike speech on the economy" at U-Toledo; aides tried to
"play down" his remarks. Clinton press sec. Dee Dee Myers: "He
got up on the wrong side of the bed. I wouldn't read too much
into it" (S.F. CHRONICLE, 10/30). NBC's Mitchell: "The Clinton
campaign is worried about the inroads Bush is making in" MI and
OH, "knowing that whoever wins these two states could very well
win the election" (10/29). Mark Shields: "Clinton has almost
personalized this race. Time after time it has been criticism of
[Bush] for lying about him." David Gergen: "The slug-fest has
not served Clinton best" ("M/L," PBS, 10/29). Clinton said he
will hit 3-5 states a day until Tues. and "may go all night
Monday to hang onto his slight edge" (N.Y. DAILY NEWS, 10/30).
A PROMISE IS A PROMISE: "Taking a political risk to keep a
campaign promise," Clinton "pledged to move aggressively if he is
elected to tackle the AIDS crisis, which he said is 'a disease --
not a vengeance or punishment.' S.F. CHRONICLE's Yoachum notes
the contrast to Bush's 10/28 comments "in which he stressed the
need for 'behavior modification' to control the spread of AIDS"
(10/30). In his 20-minute speech before a "hand-picked audience"
of several hundred people in Jersey City, NJ, Clinton "called for
increased funding for research and more emphasis on prevention
and education. He also called for the [FDA] to expedite the
approval of experimental drugs" (Jordan, NEWSDAY, 10/30). CBS'
Threlkeld: "Whichever proves stronger, gay-power or gay-backlash
this will mark the first presidential campaign in which gays and
lesbians have begun voting in a block in their own self interest,
and probably not the last" (10/29). ABC's Bury: "By scheduling
[the speech] late in the day, the campaign all but guaranteed it
would get only limited national exposure" (10/29).
UNCLE, CAN YOU SPARE A DIME? "Running short of its $55
million taxpayer-financed warchest in the final days of the
election,' the Clinton camp has asked the FEC for permission to
borrow more money in anticipation of an expected reimbursement by
the U.S. Secret Service. "Such a ruling would be unprecedented.
The Bush camp "denounced the request as evidence that the Clinton
team had mismanaged public funds and was seeking an unfair late
influx of cash to shore up its lead." Bush mgr Fred Malek: "The
FEC should deny this panicked request for relief from prolifigate
spending by the Clinton-Gore campaign and make Bill Clinton play
by the rules." The Clinton camp "insisted it was faced with no
more than a temporary cash-flow problem, and blamed its
difficulties on inequities that force a challenger to pay up-
front Secret Service costs that an incumbent never needs to bear"
(Jehl, L.A. TIMES, 10/30).
ABOUT THAT MAJOR ANALOGY: The ECONOMIST endorses Clinton:
"A keener distinction between Mr. Clinton and Mr. Bush is that
one man has exhausted the possibilities of office, while the
other pants to put into practice the ideas he has been developing
for 12 years; that one has given up, while the other has hardly
begun.
Despite the risks the possibilities are worth
pursuing. Our choice falls on [Clinton]" (10/31 issue).
THIS A.M.: Clinton appeared on ABC's "Good Morning America"
from East Rutherford, NJ. Clinton was walking from table to
table in the Candlestick diner answering questions from an
audience. On the trust issue: "It is a general problem whenever
a younger person runs for president who's not in, particularly
when it's a against an incumbent. When John Kennedy ran
Nixon was saying the whole time you can't trust him, you can't
trust
him,
you
can't
trust
him
that's the same thing that's
going on here.
I got the trust of the people of my state the
old fashioned way -- I earned it." On whether someone "who's not
faithful to his wife can be faithful to the people he serves":
"Yes, I think you've seen that in presidents in the past. But if
you're implying that I'm not, you're wrong. Based on American
history the answer is yes" (10/30).
*2 PEROT: ONE MORE FOR LARRY
He "repeated his charges of dirty tricks" 10/29 on "Larry
King Live" "only hours after his top aides said they wanted to
bury the story and focus on other issues" (Garrett, W. TIMES,
10/30). EXCERPTS: King: If we could go back to February 20th,
would your answer be different?" Perot: "No, I think it has
been a healthy thing for the country." King: "The mistake was
leaving, right? You made a mistake." Perot: "Oh, yes." King:
"Do you think you can win -- straight-out, flat-out win?" Perot:
"Absolutely.
Tuesday night, if I'm elected, Wednesday morning
I'll be in Washington. And between Wednesday morning and
Christmas, we're going to be putting together all the plans that
you normally wait until after inauguration to do. And by
Christmas, we're going to have very specific plans that we go on
the electronic town hall and explain to the American people in
detail. And the new health care system, they'll know in
technicolor before they have it dumped on them. And they'll
either like it or we won't do it. And you can go across the
board on everything like that." King: "You got graphs?
You
didn't bring any." Perot: "Well, no, I sold them to Clinton and
Quayle. King: "Are you saying to all the Bush voters, you
can't win, vote for me?" Perot: "Absolutely, I'm saying don't
throw your vote away, folks. Now he started this, the president
started this -- anybody that's not voting for him. But here are
the facts, here are the facts. He's history. And the good
people who are voting for him, the people who are voting for him
are throwing their votes away." King: "Are you saying this race
is between you and Clinton?" Perot: "Don't waste your vote,
folks, don't waste your vote on election day. Perot/Larry King
fan Cher called in: "I'd just like to say that I feel really
proud today, I voted for Ross Perot, I did my ballot and I was
really nervous and I was really frightened, but my conscience is
clear and I did it because I really love my country." King: "I
know this voice, who is this?" Perot: "It's Cher." Cher: "I
wanted to come in and congratulate you and tell you I love you
and God bless you, and I hope people aren't frightened, because
that's the way you get controlled in any situation, if they can
frighten you out of doing the right thing" (CNN, 10/29).
MORE TV: In a taped interview with PBS' David Frost, airing
tonight, Perot was asked if he would run in '96. He said he
"isn't thinking that way right now" but added, "we'll cross that
bridge when we come to it." Perot also "suggests" that he still
believes his charges of dirty tricks, adding, "I'm not paranoid.
You will never find the word 'paranoid' used once in the
thousands, hundreds of thousands of words written about me"
(Baer, Balto. SUN, 10/30). ABC's Koppel: "The Perot campaign
will undoubtedly keep political junkies musing and mulling over
what might have been for years, if not generations to come. If
only he had stayed in the race, if only he had restrained some of
his stranger impulses.
Some of the things Ross Perot has said
and done over these past few months are, to put it bluntly --
weird. That's also part of his charm, his attraction
...
If he
had acted more predictably we might have become bored with the
Perot phenomenon long ago." ABC's Greenfield: "It is possible
to see in this remarkable Perot campaign a series of
contradictory impressions. A candidate who's instinct and
actions sometimes are at war with each other
There was this
year, this time a move that would have made a third party, or
independent candidate, properly financed, a really credible
alternative. And in my view, Perot could have won. ABC's Dean
on the Perot campaign: "You don't really cover Ross Perot, you
try to find out where he is.
What passes for a campaign
schedule here reads more like a TV guide" ("Nightline, 10/30).
MONEY TALKS: "No matter how well Ross Perot fares, he has
already "secured a place in the annals of U.S. politics" by
having spent "more money than anyone else on his political
career." Perot has already spent $59 million, and "plans to
spend millions more broadcasting his message" before 11/3. On
election eve, Perot has spent $2.9 million for network air time,
including one-hour slots on NBC both 11/1 and 11/2. Perot's
"willingness to dig so deep into his pockets is causing some
consternation" not only from the Bush and Clinton camps, but
"also from political scientists and campaign reformers." Critics
say Perot "has used his money to control the political process,
avoiding the kind of public exposure faced by candidates who
campaign the old fashioned way" (Demick, PHILA. INQUIRER, 10/30).
But Perot officials 10/29 released figures "they said show Perot
has been greatly outspent by his two major rivals" and "called
for an overhaul of the nation's campaign-finance system." Perot
adviser/son-in-law Clay Mulford said that when "soft money"
contributions are added to federal matching funds received by
Bush and Clinton, the two party candidates "outspent Perot by
close to 3-1" for the year (Isikoff, W. POST, 10/30). Bob Novak:
"I think he is frozen right now no matter how many millions of
dollars he spends." CNN's Bode on effect in CA: "He's playing a
hunch. Before he got out of the race in July, [CA] was dead
even. Most of the Perot voters went to Clinton.
If you see
[Perot] starting to hit [Clinton]
on being the governor of a
small state that raises only chickens then you're going to see a
little different end" (10/29).
MORE ON THOSE INVESTIGATED VOLUNTEERS: Eight ex-Perot
volunteers, from OH, MS and MD, told reporters 10/29 that the
Perot campaign had "investigated them and perhaps had broken the
law by gaining access to their credit histories without
permission." OH atty Cliff Arnebeck: "While we took Ross Perot
at his word he was secretly investigating us. While it was
happening, we kept saying, This can't be Ross Perot doing this
to us.' But my conclusion is it must have been Ross Perot all
along.' While the Perot campaign has "acknowledged" hiring a
security firm, Perot claims "I never knew we investigated
volunteers until I heard it from the press" adding "from time to
time, other volunteers would make allegations that a volunteer
was stealing or misappropriating something, and under the [FEC]
rules, we had to check it out" (Mintz, W. POST, 10/30).
STAY TUNED: His 11/1 "comparative" infomerical, on NBC and
ABC opposite CBS' "60 Minutes," is titled "Deep Voodoo, Chicken
Feathers, and the American Dream" (DALLAS MORNING NEWS, 10/30).
*3 BUSH: "BOZOS
...
RATHOLE
PISSED OFF
...
OZONE MAN"
All reports continue to characterize Bush as upbeat, at
times dipping into "goofy," in his 10/29 Michigan appearances.
Bush expanded an earlier theme: "My dog Millie knows more about
foreign affairs than these two bozos. It's crazy!" Bush also
made this statement, which he later explained referred to TV
talking heads: "Harry Truman said there are 50 people covering
the [WH], and none of them know enough to pound sand into a rat's
hole. Save your wrath for those faithless Republicans and
faithless Democrats who wrote me off about two months ago. We
are going to show that rathole that we are going to win this
election" (NEWSDAY, 10/30). ABC's Hume: "For much of today, the
Bush campaign, bursting with last-minute hope and newfound pep,
seemed almost out of control. First it was Bruce Willis."
Willis, introducing Bush: "I'm pissed off. I am angry that this
man can stand up there and say that he is qualified to be
Commander-in-Chief." Bush, "getting into the spirit, called his
opponents 'two bozos. Video of Bush, gesturing wildly, on
Gore: "You know why I call him Ozone Man? This guy is so far
off in the environmental extreme, well be up to our neck in owls
and out of work for every American. This guy's crazy, he is way
out, far out man." Hume: "The partisan crowd loved it all, and
[Bush], seeming to feed on that, worked himself up even more in
his finale.' Bush: "And let's lead the world to new heights of
prosperity for every single American. Don't let them tear it
down. [now thumping podium] God bless America" (10/29). NBC's
Cochran: "Bush got a much-improved forecast" from MI GOPers.
Bush's aides give much of the credit to Ross Perot who cut into
Clinton's lead. Bush also feels he has drawn blood with his
attacks on Clinton" (10/29). CBS' Spencer: Bush "was in
uncommon form today on this, his 11th trip to Michigan" (10/29).
Barbara Bush: "I'm surprised George said that, but maybe that
was in a heated moment" ("CBS This Morning," 10/30). Gore:
"It's an insult to all Americans who understand what the
president does not, that there are serious threats to the
environment" ("Today," NBC, 10/30).
A.M. TV: Bush appeared on NBC's "Today" in a taped
interview from Air Force 1. On whether he still thought the
pollster were "nutty": "Yeah I do. There's still big spreads, I
don't understand it.
I was griping about the polls when we
were 20 points back 10 days ago
...
so I can't suddenly be saying
polls are accurate" (10/30).
MORE ON THE "TRUST" WAR: Bush chair Bob Teeter: Clinton
"now has been two or three days without mentioning his economic
plan.
He's dealing with our agenda and we are happy for the
next four or five days to have this be a referendum on trust"
(USA TODAY, 10/30). Bush: "I heard Governor Clinton raise the
character issue yesterday. Well, come on in. Let's take it on
character and trust" (Balto. SUN, 10/30).
PICK YOUR ELECTION MODEL: NBC's Cochran on Bush campaigning
with Gerald Ford: "The Ford campaign is the one that haunts the
Bush campaign. In the homestretch, Ford came from far behind
only to lose in a photo-finish to a southern governor" (10/29).
Bush dep. mgr Mary Matalin "rejected" the Ford comparison,
calling Bush's campaign "unconventional," and adding Ford
"stalled" after the Poland debate gaffe. Unlike Ford, she said,
"we are closing the gap" (Bedard, W. TIMES, 10/30). BOSTON
HERALD's Miga writes Bush "is sounding a lot like" Dukakis during
the final week of his campaign (10/29). PHILA. DAILY NEWS' Grady
hears Dukakis echoes, too. To Bush: "You're probably in the
grip of a delusion common to the presidential races. Call it the
Underdog's Death Rattle
Loser's Fever, a surge of energy that
turns out to be tantalizingly fraudulent" (10/30). KNIGHT-
RIDDER's Green: "What was dismissed as inconceivable just days
ago now seems possible, although still unlikely: a come-from-
behind victory by President Bush" (PHILA. INQUIRER, 10/30). Mark
Shields: "He has moved from one category in American politics
which is deadly, that of loser, to another which is colorful and
interesting, that of underdog" ("M/L," PBS, 10/30).
THE ROCK THE VOTE THING: NBC's Brokaw and CBS' Spencer
reported Bush will appear on MTV's "Choose or Lose Wrap-Up
Special." He will be interviewed by MTV's Tabitha Soren and the
interview will air during the program (10/29). USA TODAY's Flynn
notes Bush had earlier said he wouldn't be "a teeny-bopper at
68," and still refuses to do a Q&A with a youth audience, as
Clinton and Gore did. Quayle and Perot have refused as well.
Soren will interview Bush on the campaign train in WI; it will
air 11/1, at 6:30p EST. Soren on the partial come around from
the Bush camp: "In the beginning, I don't think they were
excited about sharing a nighttime spot with 'Headbanger's Ball'
I think they realize now I'm not going to be dancing around
in a bustier when I talk to him." Bush spokesperson Alixe Glen:
"His message of economic growth and job creation and small
business development is uniquely important to voters under 35"
(10/30).
GIPPS AHOY: Ronald Reagan will campaign for Bush in AZ & NM
today, and GA & NC 10/31 (W. TIMES, 10/30).
ALSO: BOSTON HERALD endorses Bush: "Change for the sake of
change is not the solution" (10/29). BOSTON GLOBE report on the
HERALD endorsement notes after a 3-hour meeting with Perot, the
HERALD editorial board "concluded that he would be unable to
govern" (10/30). W. TIMES' Witham reports evangelical Christians
"have the potential to deliver 134 electoral votes" in GA, MO,
NC, FL, MI, OH, and TX (10/30). Noting Bruce Willis' "pissed
off" introduction, BOSTON GLOBE's Wilkie: "It is difficult to
find the majesty of democracy in the final days of the 1992
presidential campaign" (10/30).
*4 ADS: BUSH PASSES ON ELECTION-EVE PLEA
"Breaking with tradition," Bush will not broadcast an
Election Eve appeal on any of the networks. Spokesperson Tony
Mitchell: "We believe the advertising that we're doing is what
we need at this point." " Some analysts said the reason for the
change "is that the Bush campaign is low on money." Clinton and
Perot will make pitches on all 3 nets (N.Y. TIMES, 10/30).
THE ARKANSAS AD: (See HOTLINE 10/29 for text). ABC's
Greenfield: "The words are less important than the horror movie
images. In Bill Clinton's [AR] this ad says, it is nuclear
winter. Just in case the special effects and creepy sounds don't
drive the point home, check out that buzzard sitting on that
barren tree. The message? Vote for Clinton and the world will
end" (10/29). NBC's Cochran: "His new ad is strictly negative,
the announcer never even mentions Bush's name. It's a 30 second
assault on Clinton" (10/29). N.Y. TIMES' Berke: "A case study
in how accusations can be made and how facts can be used to
bolster them or tear them down.
In 30 seconds the ad tried to
hit Mr. Clinton on the hot-button issues of the environment,
children, crime and taxes -- all issues that Mr. Bush has been
attacked on" (10/30). KNIGHT-RIDDER's Gunther: "Factual in the
narrow sense" (PHILA. INQUIRER, 10/30).
CLINTON'S RESPONSE: "Less than a day" after Bush released
the AR ad, the Clinton camp produced this 30-sec. response.
Graphic text follows announcer; cites under text. ANCR V/O:
"CBS, CNN and newspapers across the country call George Bush's
ads misleading and wrong. The fact is, under Bill Clinton, [AR]
leads the nation in job growth, has the second-lowest tax burden
and the lowest government spending in the country. And he's
balanced 12 budgets. They've reduced infant mortality and now
have the highest graduation rate in the region. And in the past
year, [AR's] crime went down. No wonder the Washington Post says
George Bush is lying about Bill Clinton's record, and why the
Oregonian concluded, 'Frankly, we no longer trust George Bush.
N.Y. TIMES' Berke: "Uses many citations to lend it credibility,
but sometimes it goes overboard." It was W. POST columnist Judy
Mann that said Bush lied. AR has only led the nation in job
growth for the past 3 months according to the figures (10/30).
W. POST's Kurtz: "The figures are accurate but use time periods
most favorable to Clinton" (10/30). Clinton aides said "at least
two new" TV ads will run before 11/3, one attacking Bush on the
economy and a positive ad with footage from bus trips or Clinton
with voters (Kolbert, N.Y. TIMES, 10/30).
TEXT OF BUSH TWO-MINUTE AD: White text on black: "Plain
Talk. On the Presidency." Bush talking to seated group in front
of gigantic U.S. flag covering wall: "In a few days you'll be
making your choice for President
It's a serious choice, the
most important democracy asks us to make. There are many times
that the president alone must make tough decisions that affect
other people's lives. He is the Commander in Chief, and I want
you to think about that. He must have the resolve, the maturity,
the moral authority to lead the nation in times of crises. In
the White House, and the Oval Office, you cannot be on both sides
of every issue. You must make the call and you must lead. And
that's what the American people expect from their president. Our
economic future, here at home, depends more than ever on
competing in a global economy, seizing new opportunities and
opening new markets, and that's how we can create more jobs and
economic strength. America must have a leader who understands
the world, and who's prepared to act. Leaders of other nations,
people all over the world, judge America by the character of the
president, and the president's word is good. People around the
world expect that of the United States. The person you choose to
lead America must have certain qualities: Decisiveness, honesty,
integrity, consistency. All of you know the job of the
presidency is the most serious job in the world and we simply
cannot put America's future at risk with a person who's wrong for
the job, and with politics that are wrong for America. When you
make your choice, choose what's right for America. I need your
support, and I ask for your vote." Black screen, in white
letters: "President Bush. Commander in Chief."
MONEY: "Led by targeted buys" from Clinton-Gore, cable TV
revenues from candidates reached $100, 000/day in October,
according a survey by Cable Networks, Inc (CNI release, 10/30).
All network TV advertising (including FOX) in national, state and
local races will reach $330 million by 11/3 -- more than $100M
higher than 1988 (Johnson, Balto. SUN, 10/30). ABC's Greenfield:
"There's an old saying that goes, half of all the money spent on
political commercials is wasted. The problem is, nobody knows
which half" (10/29).
*5 GOP '96: DOLE DOESN'T RULE IT OUT; KEMP BLASTS BUCHANAN
Sen. Bob Dole (R-KS) said he "hears 'a lot of conversation'
that people wish he was a candidate for president this year, and
some tell him they hope he runs again in 1996.' He "didn't rule
out the possibility he could make a third run for the presidency,
especially if Bush loses": "Bush is going to win, so that
probably won't come up. If he doesn't win, I assume there will
be a lot of jockeying around by a lot of people. If I win [re-
election to his seat 11/3] and I'm still the Republican leader,
then I'll be in the thick of it, trying to figure how we're going
to keep everything together." Pressed on whether his age would
rule him out (he'll be 73 in '96), Dole: "Oh, you never know.
I'm in good health. After you have your prostate out, you're
supposed to be real healthy" (AP, 10/29).
KEMP: DALLAS MORNING NEWS header: "Jack Kemp criticizes
GOP focus." In a "last-minute campaign stop," Sec/HUD Jack Kemp
"criticized his party's focus on 'family values' and denounced a
convention speech by Patrick Buchanan": "The answer to L.A.
is not more guns, it's not more prisons, as Pat Buchanan said
He sounded like he wanted to line people up against the wall and
shoot them. Buchanan aides said "Kemp's statements are false,
self-serving, and badly timed. " Manager/sister Bay Buchanan:
"Kemp should really stop pursuing his personal ambitions for 1996
and instead focus on re-electing President Bush in 1992. " But
MORNING NEWS' Flournoy writes Kemp "is one of the few Cabinet
members to predict publicly that the [GOP] ticket will return."
More Kemp: "The convention was overly stressing family values.
Creating a better economy is the one thing government can do. It
cannot change the values of its people. It can strengthen values
but it can't change them" (10/30).
*6 PRIMETIME LIVE: DONALDSON INTERVIEWS TWO; SNUBBED BY PEROT
Bush and Clinton appeared in taped interviews. Perot had
committed to tape an interview, but then declined "citing other
commitments" (10/29). NEWSDAY's Kubasik reports "a behind-the-
scenes" battle at ABC between Sam Donaldson and Barbara Walters
over who would interview Perot. Perot was booked to do a taped
interview with Donaldson yesterday and a taped interview with
Walters for tonight's "20/20." ABC "determined" Perot was
getting too much time, so they asked Walters drop the interview.
When Perot heard he had been dropped by "20/20," he "dumped" the
Donaldson interview (10/30). Donaldson: "The blowhard chickened
out and blew me off" (DALLAS MORNING NEWS, 10/30).
CLINTON: On the "the dirty tricks campaign": "Well, I think
one of his problems is that he really has made a total separation
in his own mind between how he is as a person, how he is as a
president, and how he is as a candidate."
BUSH AND IRAQ-GATE: Donaldson: "You won the war, no doubt
about it, but it was a war that a lot of people think was brought
on by the fact that you coddled him." Donaldson then lists loan
guarantees to Iraq through the BNL bank. Bush: "Wrong, wrong,
and wrong -- wrong, wrong, and wrong.
There is no evidence --
and that money does not go to buy arms, that goes to the American
farmer. And I had Democrat after Democrat saying please make the
loans, including some who are now, for purely partisan purposes,
holding a bunch of hearings trying to make something that is
noble ignoble. And it is pure partisanship. Right before an
election to hear Don Riegle, who dragged his feet on the war, now
being holier than thou -- like Henry B. Gonzalez.
...
I'm afraid,
with all respect, you're picking up on a Democratic frantic
charge, so that they will take something that was good and get
themselves off the hook for opposing the war." Donaldson: "It's
not a Democratic charge -- looking into the fact now that your
CIA misled Congress in what it had in its files, corrected the
records, and then accused the Justice Dept. of urging it to
mislead Congress" (10/29).
*7 CANDIDATE SCHEDULES
10/30
10/31
11/1
11/2
11/3
CLINTON
ERthfrdNJ
DecaturGA
ERuthford
501/399-3840
OH,
Milwaukee
NJ
D. Seldin
DetroitMI
WI
ORE
MnchstrNH
Dalton GA
501/399-3840
Bangor ME
KlmazooMI
K. McKiernan
CT, TN
MO,CO,WI
BUSH
NshvlleTN
WI
202/336-7080
StLouisMO
train
T. Clarke
Racine WI
trip
QUAYLE
Casper WY
Cedar
202/456-7034
Denver CO
Rapids IA
D. Beckwith
SioxCtyIA
DC
PEROT
Dallas
Tampa FL
SntaClara
Dallas
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TX
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LongBeach
TX
S. Holman
MO
CA
THE TOP TEN
*8 HOTLINE ELECTORAL SCOREBOARD
The Scoreboard is The HOTLINE's compilation of the latest
trial heat data available from state polling. The number of
electors is listed for each state. The symbol (++) indicates a
lead beyond the margin of error; (+) a lead within the margin.
WARNING: While the Scoreboard does reflect the most recent
available state data, 32 of the polls are a week older or more.
Therefore, state-by-state results included here tend to lag
behind the national tracking polls.
STATE
BUSH CLINTON PEROT
POLLSTER/DATE/MARGIN OF ERROR
AL (9)
38
+39
14
ANNISTON STAR, 10/24-25, +/- 3.5%
42
42
10
Alabama Report, 10/24-27, +/- 4%
AK (3)
+37
30
23
Cromer Group (D), 10/25-26, +/- 4.4%
AZ (8)
33
+37
21
ASU/KAET-TV, 10/24-25, +/-4%
AR (6)
31
++52
10
ARK. DEM-GAZETTE, 10/16-18, +/- 3.5%
CA (54)
29
++45
23
Field Inst., 10/25-28, +/- 3.1%
CO (8)
28
++42
21 DENVER POST, 10/25-28, +/- 4.9%
CT (8)
27
++39
21 Quinnipiac, 10/20-25, +/- 4.5%
DE (3)
33
+36
19
WKYW-TV/PMR, 10/22-23, +/- 4%
DC (3)
17
++71
8 News 4/PMR, 10/12-14, +/- 4.5%
FL
(25)
+40
37
16 Mason-Dixon, 10/22-25, +/- 3.5%
37
37
20
Bendixen/WLTV, 10/19-22, +/- 4.4%
GA (13)
38
+44
12
ATL /WSB-TV, 10/19-21, +/-4%
HI (4)
21
++48
17
ARG, 9/15-10/1, +/- 5%
ID
(4)
++35
25
28
KTVB-TV/PMR, 10/22-24, +/- 3.5%
IL
(22)
26
++41
15
Univ/IL-Chicago, 10/21-25, +/- 3%
IN
(12)
+38
34
18
WISH-TV/PMR, 10/18-19, +/- 3.5%
IA (7)
31
+38
15
PMR, 10/20-21, +/- 3.5%
KS
(6)
32
+37
14
K.C. STAR, 10/12-21, +/- 3.5%
KY (8)
32
++48
14
Lou. COURIER-JOURNAL, 10/20-22, +/-4%
LA (9)
36
+41
11
SHREVEPORT TIMES, 10/23-24, +/- 3.5%
ME (4)
28
+34
27
WCSH-TV/PMR, 10/25-26, +/- 5%
MD (10)
31
++48
15
GWU/GSPM, 10/20-24, +/- 4%
MA (12)
22
++47
22 HOTLINE sources, 10/25-26, +/- 5%
MI
(18)
+31
30
17
Saginaw Vly State, 10/22-26, +/- 3%
33
++43
17 DETROIT NEWS, 10/26-28, +/- 4%
MN (10)
31
++40
18
KARE-TV/PMR, 10/21-22, +/- 3.5%
MS
(7)
+41
37
11
NATCHEZ DEMOCRAT, 10/23-24, +/- 3.4%
MO
(11)
24
++48
13
K.C. STAR, 10/12-21, +/-3.5%
MT (3)
29
++41
19
Eastern MT College, 10/16-19, +/- 4%
NE
(5)
++38
29
17 WORLD-HERALD, 10/20-22, +/-3.2%
NV (4)
30
+35
27 KLAS-TV/PMR, 10/23-24, +/- 3.5%
NH (4)
29
++44
18
ARG, 10/27-28, +/- 4%
33
+35
21
CONCORD MONITOR, 10/25-26, +/- 3.5%
NJ
(15)
35
+43
16
Bergen RECORD, 10/20-22, +/- 4%
NM (5)
28
++40
20
ALBUQUERQUE TRIBUNE, 10/21-22, +/- 5%
NY (33)
29
++51
16
Marist Inst., 10/25-26, +/- 4%
NC (14)
38
+39
9
Grnsbro N&R, 10/26-27, +/-3.5%
32
+40
10
Raleigh N&O, 10/25-28, +/- 4%
ND
(3)
+35
33
18
Moorehead State, 10/20-22, +/-4.2%
OH (21)
33
++42
19
BEACON JOURNAL, 10/20-24, +/- 4%
OK
(8)
+36
34
15
Kielhorn/KWTV, 10/20-22, +/- 4.1%
34
+41
15
Mason-Dixon/KWTV, 10/21-23, +/- 3.5%
37
37
14
Cole Snodgrass (R), 10/16-23, +/-4.4%
OR (7)
24
42
20
OREGONIAN, 10/22-26, +/- 4%
30
++44
22
KATU-TV, 10/22-24, +/- 4%
30
++39
22
REGISTER-GUARD/PMR, 10/25-26, +/-3.5%
PA (23)
35
+42
17
PITT. POST-GAZETTE, 10/20-25, +/-4.2%
28
++38
15
PHILA. DAILY NEWS, 10/24-27, +/- 3.2%
RI (4)
23
++44
21
JOURNAL-BULLETIN, 10/21-22, +/- 4%
SC
(8)
++39
31
10
GREENVILLE NEWS, 10/19-22, +/- 3.4%
+41
38
8
NEWS & COURIER, 10/22-23, +/- 3.5%
SD (3)
31
+35
20
ARGUS LEADER, 10/21-22, +/- 3.5%
TN (11)
35
++47
5
TN Poll/UTenn, 10/7-12, +/- 3.5%
TX (32) ++43
35
15
Mason-Dixon, 10/26-28, +/- 3.5%
UT
(5)
++48
36
7
ARG, 9/15-10/1, +/- 5%
VT
(3)
26
++43
16
BURL. FREE PRESS, 10/20-22, +/- 3.5%
VA
(13)
+43
39
11
WRC-TV/Potomac Survey, 10/24, +/- 4%
WA (11)
31
++40
21
POST-INTELLIGENCER, 10/26-27, +/- 4%
WV
(5)
26
++49
15
WCHS-TV/PMR, 10/19-20, +/- 3.5%
WI
(11)
30
++39
23
MIL. SENTINEL, 10/23-24, +/-3.5%
WY
(3)
+35
32
23
CASPER STAR-TRIB, 10/22-24, +/- 3.5%
ELECTORAL COLLEGE TOTALS: (270 electors needed to win).
STATES
ELECTORS
OUTSIDE M/E
STATES
ELECTORS
Clinton
37
401
Clinton
23
270
Bush
12
120
Bush
4
46
Perot
0
0
Ties
2
17
NOTE: New polls replace yesterday's data in 11 states: AL,
CA, CO, ID, MI, NH, NC, PA, & TX. Due to conflicting data -- OK
and AL are counted as ties.
YESTERDAY'S SCOREBOARD: Clinton led in 25 states with 274
EVs outside the margin of error; he also had 37 states with 392
EVs inside the margin. Bush had 2 states for 10 EVs outside the
margin; he had 12 states for 106 EVs inside.
*9 MICHIGAN: NEWS POLL PUTS CLINTON AHEAD BY 10
A DETROIT NEWS poll, conducted 10/26-28, surveyed 609 likely
voters; margin of error +/- 4% (10/30).
10/26-28
10/1-2
10/26-28
10/1-2
FAV/UNFAV
FAV/UNFAV
Clinton
43%
46%
56%/ 39%
59%/ 34%
Bush
33
33
47 / 46
39 / 56
Perot
17
10
-- / 36
-- / 58
OTHER RECENT POLLS: A MSU poll, conducted 10/20-26 by the
school's Inst. for Public Policy/Social Research, surveyed 588
"very likely" voters +/- 4.5% -- Clinton 44%, Bush 29%, Perot 19%
(AP, 10/29). Bush chair Bob Teeter, himself a Michigander "said
Mr. Bush had pulled even in Macomb County": "We're very close in
[MI], and we couldn't be close in [MI] if we weren't close in
Macomb" (N.Y. TIMES, 10/30).
*10 TEXAS (32): BUSH REGAINS LEAD
A Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research poll, conducted
10/26-28, surveyed 800 likely voters; margin of error +/- 3.5%
(KPRC-TV, 10/29).
MASON-DIXON
HOU. CHRON
STAR-TELEGRAM
10/26-28
10/20-22
10/18-22
Bush
43%
31
34%
Clinton
35
39
36
Perot
15
15
23
Undec.
7
15
*11 MARYLAND (10) : DEM GOV. SCHAEFER ENDORSES BUSH
Gov. Wm Donald Schaefer (D), who endorsed Paul Tsongas in
the Dem primaries, 'decided last night to bolt from the
Democratic fold" and endorse Bush. Schaefer will join Bush today
at a rally with with MO Gov. John Ashcroft (R-MO) in St. Louis.
Schaefer "has told his associates that he believes Mr. Clinton
has tailored his positions to carefully to his own political
ambitions" (Balto. SUN, 10/30).
(c) 1992 by the American Political Network, Inc. Any
reproduction -- by photocopy, FAX, or other form -- in whole
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affiliate companies. All rights reserved.
Phone: 703/237-5130
FAX: 703/237-5149
Publishers: Doug Bailey, Roger Craver
Editor-in-Chief: Robert Balkin
Editorial Assts.:
Managing Editor: Stephen Bilafer
Max Gale
Dep. Managing Editor: Melodie Jackson
Marc Kaplan
Associate Editor: Ned Lilly
Charles Todd
TV Editor: Vincent Fusco
Staff Writers: Amy Silver, Vaughn Ververs, Jason Jarvis
ISSUES '92
*12 VOTER TURNOUT: MANY STATES WITNESS RECORD HIGHS, BUT
NATIONALLY: USA TODAY reports, "Despite all the hoopla over
predictions of record voter registration this year, Washington
researchers say numbers so far show only modest gains." Cmte for
the Study of the American Electorate Curtis Gans calls it
"premature euphoria," and added, registration is only up a
"measly" 1% over '88, and is in fact 1% lower than '84. But
Gans' info is based only on 29 states and DC, the only numbers
available (10/30). Voting experts at the DNC note, "surging
registration in several big cities,' such as Chicago, Detroit and
Phila. These new registrants, "almost all of them black," are in
battleground states. This is mostly due to the efforts of the
non-partisan group Project Vote (Shribman/Perry, W.S. JOURNAL,
10/30). Nat'l Coalition on Black Voter Partic. exec. dir. Sonia
Jarvis: "We will find that it is up significantly over 1988 but
that's because we had the lowest turnout there in over 40 years.
Overall, I think we are going to see increases in ... states
that are rich in electoral votes" ("M/L," PBS, 10/28). Here's a
look at registration and turnout expectations in the HOTLINE Top
Ten as well as CO, which like TX has early voting.
CALIFORNIA (54) Registration has reached a "record high"
(15M) -- an increase of nearly '1M over '88 figures. Absentee
ballot requests are also up in some counties. Dem reg. is on the
rise this year, hitting 48% to the GOP's 37% and 10% among third
parties. Sec/State March Fong Eu is scheduled to release her
turnout prediction today. '88 turnout was 10,194,539.
COLORADO (8) Dems have been reaping CO's voter-reg. gains
in heavy-GOP counties across the metro area. "Political experts
say the trend could reverse what happened four years ago, when
the heavily [GOP] suburban vote canceled the [Dem's] inner-city
edge and gave George Bush a victory in the metro area." A
comparison with '88 reg shows Dem gains ranging from 2.3 to 3% in
Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Douglas and Jefferson counties.
"Unaffiliated voters continue to hold a slight registration edge
in the five counties," comprising 35% of those registered, while
34% are GOP and 31% are Dems. But the highest increase has been
among Dems. Co's biggest counties have also been "swamped" with
early voting and absentee ballot requests (Brimberg, DENVER POST,
10/28). Officials predict turnout to hit 75% up from 70% in '88.
FLORIDA (25) FL reports registration at an all-time high
of 6,541,825. A 75% turnout is projected -- up from 73% in '88;
'76 was highest with 77%. County election offices report a more
than normal dispersement of absentee ballots. Officials
attribute the increase to FL's nine constitutional amendments and
a term limit initiative, as well as the unusual election year.
ILLINOIS (22) : Reg. hit an all-time high since IL began
keeping records in 1952. Almost 6.7M people have registered --
up from 1988's total of 6.35M. Asst. Assoc. dir. of elections
Pat Freeman projects turnout to be between 78-81%; up from the
74% turnout in '88, and the 57% in '90. Freeman noted that the
increased interest has to do with the candicacy's of Perot and
Dem Senate nominee Carol Moseley Braun. IL also has more offices
up for election than they have in 20 yrs. Absentee requests are
"a little higher" than in normal presidential years.
MICHIGAN (18) An all-time high of 6.15M people have
registered, up from 5.95M in '88. MI voter reg. dir. Bradley
Wittman projects turnout between 55-60%, "tops." Turnout in '88
was 55.2%, the lowest turnout for a pres. election in 30 yrs.
'90 turnout hit 38.7%, right around the national average. NOTE:
MI bases their turnout figures on the voting age population.
Wittman says absentee requests are "up all over." He noted, MI
has the Motor Voter option, which has been up throughout the
year. The program, which began in '75, saw its highest month of
transactions 9/92. Wittman cited the "unprecedented" number of
GOTV drives as one reason for the high number of registrations.
NEW JERSEY (15) For the third time ever, NJ registered
over 4M people. 1992 was the second highest total with 4,060,000
-- twelve thousand short of the all-time high in '84. NJ
elections dir. Midge Trainor expects turnout to be between 75-
79%. Turnout in '88 was 77%; '90 was 54%. Absentee requests
were no more than the average for a pres. election year.
NEW YORK (33) Sec/State public info officer Dave Flanigan
reports the '92 reg. "skyrocketed" over previous years, as have
the number of absentee ballot requests. In NYC alone, reg. hit
3,366,000 -- the highest in 20 yrs. Over 700,000 of those are
"new" registrants. The number of Ind. registrants in NYC also
increased, causing the number of GOP regs. to go down from 15 to
11%. Dem reg's. show little change, remaining around 72%.
Turnout for the state has been around 75% for the last 3
elections, but Flanigan expects to top over 90M this year.
NORTH CAROLINA (14) : Registration hit an all time high with
3.8 million people registered. NC had their second highest voter
registration between the primary and general elections. NC exec.
dir. of Elections Alex Brock projects turnout to be between 72-
75%. NC's 1988 turnout was 62% and 1990's turnout was 59%.
NOTE: NC bases their turnout figures on the number of registered
voters, not the voting age population. Brock sees the increase
of GOTV drives by various groups in the state as being a major
reason why registration is up and why turnout will be up. Brock
also notes, NC's gov. election as being another motivator for the
voters. Brock also noted, absentee requests are "prolific,"
almost every county has exceeded their '84, '88 and '90 request
numbers. The deadline for absentee requests is 10/30, so the
number should increase even more.
OHIO (21) Registration hit an all-time high in OH as well,
with 6.5 million people registering. It's almost 300,000 more
than 1988's total. Registration was higher in 71 of the 88
counties. Sec/State Bob Taft is projecting a 72% turnout this
year, which is right on target to what the turnout was in 1988
and higher than 1990, which had a 61% turnout. Taft attributed
record registration to "aggressive registration drives" around
the state, along with the added interest of Perot. Absentee
requests are at higher levels than in 1988, but exact figures
will not be available until at least 21 days after the election.
PENNSYLVANIA (23) : PA has witnessed a lot of activity
between the primary and general elections than in previous years.
While the number of registered voters during the '92 primary was
about the same as it was during the '88 primary, the number of
registrants has increased by more than 100,000 over the '88
general election figures. The percentage of voters registering
as independents are at an all-time high. Bureau of Elections
Commis. Wm Boehm expects turnout to be between 53-58% -- up from
50% in '88 and 54% in '84. Monroe Co. Board of Election's Gale
Borger noted that absentee ballot requests are also at a "record
high" (over 2,000 have been sent out in Monroe Co. alone).
TEXAS (32) Registrations are only up by 238,318 from '88
to a total of 8,439,874. But the state's 17-day early voting
procedure has prompted a record turnout. 1M had voted as of
10/27. A total of 2M are expected to vote. Though the early
voting procedure is 3 years old, voters for the first time can
vote in stores and other convenient locations, and on weekends,
which has drawn a lot of people who may have not gotten around to
it otherwise. TX Dem exec. dir. Ed Martin: "You're going to see
a lot of other folks than those CNN likely voters voting."
*13 THE POLLSTERS' GUIDE TO FINDING THE LIKELY VOTERS
The HOTLINE asked a variety of pollsters to describe how
they determine their likely voter sample.
ABC'S JEFF ALDERMAN: "Well, that's really sort of a trade
secret, isn't it? I can tell you the elements of it, but not how
they all come together. Obviously, they have to be registered.
From there on we ask questions on likelihood of voting, interest
in the race, whether they voted previously. We use those
questions to assemble several different possible turnout
scenarios -- look at all of them -- and from that we assemble a
likely voter group that we seem to think is the most logical.
You're never going to get it exactly right. The best thing to do
is to take a look at high turnout, low turnout It's going to
be in there somewhere between all registered and 1988."
TIMES MIRROR'S ANDREW KOHUT: "We use three questions among
registered voters: Thought given to the election; past vote;
voting experience; and certainty of voting. But we do it
separately for younger people and older people to account for the
fact that younger people don't have voting history."
CBS' KATHY FRANKOVIC: "We have a Probable Electorate model.
It includes everyone who is registered and meets a few other
criteria. That is they are legitimate registered voters. We ask
people whether they've moved in the last few years
...
when the
last time they voted was, the last time they registered was.
That allows us to do what states often do, following state laws
-- purging those people who have not voted over the appropriate
period of time, in terms of what that state's laws are. So that
total number of registered voters is not all the people who say
they're registered, but well over 90% of them who actually meet
the criteria to be registered in their state. Then on top of it,
we assign each of those people a probability that they will vote
based on their answers to questions about past vote, intent to
vote, interest in the campaign. The probability that is assigned
to them comes from previous years' surveys and validation studies
that have been done with individuals. In other words, how many
in each group of voters actually make it to the polls. It should
be said: Not everyone who says they are absolutely likely to
vote fits the likely voter scheme and actually make it to the
polls; and not everyone who does not sound like a likely voter
will not vote. A certain proportion of those will vote. People
are given a weighted probability of voting."
GALLUP'S LARRY HUGICK: "We ask eight questions if you
include voter registration. We start out with people who are
registered or who live in a state with same-day registration and
plan to register. That gives us roughly 80% of the full adult
population. Then we ask seven questions about voting intentions,
past voting history, interest in the election and whether people
have information about where to vote. On the basis of those
questions, we put people on a scale and we divide the sample
based on a score so that the top 55% are counted as likely
voters. That means we're assuming that 55%, roughly, of the
adult population will participate in this election. The turnout
four years ago was about 50% and the highest its been since 1972,
when the 18-20 year olds got the vote, was 55%. It's a fairly
high estimate, if anything, of what the turnout should be. In
response to all the questions saying we were unfairly leaving out
young voters and so forth, we looked into if we discounted past
vote entirely and looked only at questions about this election.
We found that there's very little difference if you limited our
turnout scale to only those items -- the difference was only
one percentage point in the spread between Bush and Clinton."
L.A TIMES' SUSAN PINCUS: "We have a screen that takes
certainty to vote, intention to vote. We take past history, how
one voted in the '84 and '88 elections. Right now, we think the
young voter is slipping through a lot of the likely screens,
because more of them are interested in this race than they were
in the '88 election. So that might make the voter screen
tighter
We give people different scores. We have intention
to vote, the past voting history, the certainty of vote, whether
they're certain they're going to vote for their candidate, their
interest in the political process or in the presidential
campaign. We look at if they're interested in local politics as
well.
People who will definitely vote or are certain to vote
and have keen interest in the election, they get a higher score
than the people who have not voted, let's say, in the past two
elections and are not certain they are going to vote for their
candidate and are not interested in the presidential campaign.
So they get less of a score.
You just have make an educated
guess at where turnout's going to be and you look at past voting
history to see what it is."
WALL STREET JOURNAL/NBC: W.S. JOUNRAL's Shribman & Perry
describe their process: "In reporting the Journal/NBC survey,
pollsters Hart and Breglio emphasize that it may be misleading to
focus solely on people who vote regularly, because this election
could also draw many people who vote less frequently. For that
reason, the Journal is reporting the results among both
registered voters and regular voters, which under the poll's
definition eliminates anyone who hasn't voted in half the
elections in the past three years" (WSJ 10/30).
SENATE WA
*14 SCOREBOARD: NEWEST UPDATE ON SENATE POLLS
There are 36 Senate seats up in '92. 34 take place 11/3;
ND "B" is 12/4. NOTE: INCUMBENTS are in full caps; D/R indicates
current party for open seats; ++ = lead outside margin of error;
+ = lead within margin. Ex-Gov. Evan Mecham (I) receives 11% in
AZ. Green Party's Mary Jordon gets 5% in AK.
DEM
oto
GOP
% SURVEY SOURCE
AK Smith
38
MURKOWSKI
++51 ANCH. DLY NWS, 10/17-18
AL
SHELBY
++69
Sellers
18 BIRM. PST-HER, 10/12-14
AR
BUMPERS
++59
Huckabee
31 DEM-GAZETTE, 10/16-18
AZ
Sargent
29
MCCAIN
++51 KVOA/KPNX, 10/24-26
CA D Boxer
+44
Herschensohn
40 PMR, 10/27-28
CA
Feinstein
++50
SEYMOUR
37 PMR, 10/27-28
CO D Campbell
+49
Considine
42 D. POST/TV-4, 10/23-26
CT
DODD
++52
Johnson
33 Quinnipiac, 10/20-25
FL
GRAHAM
++64
Grant
26 WLTV-Miami, 10/19-22
GA
FOWLER
++51
Coverdell
35 Mason-Dixon, 10/23-24
HI
INOUYE
++56
Reed
34 HON STAR/PMR, 9/21-25
ID
R
Stallings
37
Kempthorne
++55 PMR/KTVB, 10/22-24
IL
D
Braun
++44
Williamson
34 U of IL-Chic., 10/21-24
IN
Hogsett
30
COATS
++55 PMR/WISH-TV, 10/18-19
IA
Jones
24
GRASSLEY
++67 D.M. REGISTER, 10/4-9
KS O'Dell
23
DOLE
++55 K.C. STAR, 10/12-21
KY
FORD
++63
Williams
19 WKRC, 10/23-24
LA BREAUX re-elected 10/3.
MD MIKULSKI ++60
Keyes
29 Mason-Dixon, 10/22-23
MO Rothmn-Serot 39
BOND
++55 KWMU, 10/19-22
Rothmn-Serot 34
BOND
++51 KTVI/KYTV, 10/26-27
NV
REID
++62
Dahl
29 Reid internal, 10/18
NH R Rauh
++47
Gregg
37 ARG, 10/27-28
Rauh
+46
Gregg
41 CONCRD MONTR, 10/25-26
Rauh
++47
Gregg
38 UNH, 10/21-26
NY Abrams
+38
D'AMATO
35 N.Y. TIMES, 10/24-26
Abrams
++48
D'AMATO
37 NEWSDAY/WABC, 10/23-25
Abrams
+47
D'AMATO
41 Marist, 10/25-26
NC
SANFORD
++45
Faircloth
37 Grnsboro N&R, 10/26-27
ND
D
Dorgan
++65
Sydness
28 Univ. of ND, 10/6-7
ND
D
Conrad
++68
Dalrymple
23 Univ. of ND, 10/9-10
OH
GLENN
++44
DeWine
34 Akrn BCN-JRNL, 10/20-24
GLENN
+50
DeWine
42 U/Cincinnati, 10/16-25
OK
Lewis
31 NICKLES
++55 Mason-Dixon, 10/21-23
OR AuCoin
33
PACKWOOD
++43 KPTV, 10/19-23
AuCoin
38
PACKWOOD
+40 OREGONIAN, 10/22-26
AuCoin
43
PACKWOOD
+50 KATU/T-H, 10/22-25
PA Yeakel
36 SPECTER
+40 Keystone Poll, 10/24-27
Yeakel
40
SPECTER
+48 POST-GAZ, 10/22-25
SC
HOLLINGS
+37
Hartnett
33 GREENVLE NEWS, 10/19-22
HOLLINGS
++49
Hartnett
34 Chrlstn P&C, 10/22-23
SD
DASCHLE
++58
Haar
34 ARGUS LEADER, 10/21-22
UT R Owens
37
Bennett
++57 DESERET NEWS, 9/29-30
VT LEAHY
++60
Douglas
29 RUTLAND HRLD, 10/17-18
WA D Murray
+48
Chandler
43 SEATTLE P-I, 10/26-27
Murray
+46
Chandler
41 SPOKESMAN-REV, 10/24-25
WI
Feingold
+48
KASTEN
40 MIL. SENTINEL, 10/23-24
Feingold
44 KASTEN
+47 St. Norbert, 10/21-25
*15 ILLINOIS: STATE RULES BRAUN MUST PAY IN MOM'S MEDICAID CASE
Cook Co. Recorder of Deeds Carol Moseley Braun (D) will have
to pay a "substantial sum" to the IL Public Aid dept "as a result
of a ruling in the Medicaid controversy" that broke last month.
The payment could be as much as $22,000 of the contested $28,750,
and would be used to offset government-paid medical costs for
Braun's mother. If attys for Braun and her mother produce
receipts explaining additional health care expenses the amount
could be reduced to a minimum of $12,000. Braun: "The important
thing is that I don't think we did anything wrong." Braun put a
$28,750 personal loan in an escrow account to be used if the case
was decided against her family. Williamson: "It's proof positive
that she not only gamed the system but she denied money that
should have been paid, that she expected the [IL] taxpayers to
make it up" (Hardy/Karwath, CHICAGO TRIBUNE, 10/30).
COUNTRY CLUB: According to his aides, Williamson "quit the
exclusive Westmoreland Country Club" 5/92 "to avoid being
embarrassed by his membership during the campaign." Williamson:
"There was no discriminatory policy
...
but they didn't have the
kind of outreach you would like" (CHICAGO SUN-TIMES, 10/29).
*16 NEW HAMPSHIRE: THREE POLLS GIVE RAUH THE LEAD
American Research Group surveyed 600 likely voters 10/27-28;
margin of error +/- 4% (ARG release, 10/29). Political/Media
Research surveyed 815 likely voters 10/25-26; margin of error +/-
3.5% (CONCORD MONITOR, 10/29). Tested: Gov. Judd Gregg (R),
businessman John Rauh (D), '90 House candidate Larry Brady (I).
CORRECTION: Yesterday's HOTLINE story on the race incorrectly
reported the results of the UNH survey. It should have shown
Rauh ahead of Gregg, 47-38%.
ARG
PMR
UNH
Rauh
47%
46%
47%
Gregg
37
41
38
DK/Other
17
13
15
*17 NORTH CAROLINA: POLL HAS LAUCH BREATHING HEAVY ON SANFORD
A Raleigh NEWS & OBSERVER/WRAL poll, conducted 10/25-28 by
Independent Opinion Research, surveyed 854 likely voters; margin
of error +/- 3.5% (10/30). A Greensboro NEWS & RECORD poll,
conducted 10/26-27 by Mason-Dixon, surveyed 818 likely voters;
margin of error +/- 3.5% (10/30). Tested: Sen. Terry Sanford
(D), businessman Lauch Faircloth (R).
NEWS & OBSERVER
N&R
ALL WHITE BLACK
Sanford
44%
37%
78%
45%
Faircloth 38
46
6
37
DK/other 17
18
16
18
ON THE HOUSE
*18 HOUSE RACE BRIEFINGS:
AL 02: Davis Penfield surveyed 200 likely voters 10/24-27;
margin of error +/- 7% (ALABAMA REPORT, 10/28). Tested:
Treasurer George Wallace Jr. (D), businessman Terry Everett (R).
Wallace
48%
Everett
45
AL 06: Davis Penfield surveyed 301 likely voters 10/24-27;
margin of error +/- 5% (ALABAMA REPORT, 10/28). Tested: Rep.
Ben Erdreich (D), ex-AL GOP chair Spencer Bachus (R).
Bachus
46%
Erdreich
44
AZ 06: State Sen. Karan English (D) received the
endorsement of Barry Goldwater. English faces ex-Reagan WH aide
Doug Wead (R), who served as a liaison to the evangelical
community (English release, 10/29).
CA 23: SANTA BARBARA NEWS-PRESS and Ventura STAR-FREE PRESS
endorse education consultant Anita Perez Ferguson (D) over GOP
Rep. Elton Gallegly (NEWS-PRESS, 10/29; STAR-FREE PRESS, 10/28).
CO 03: LG Mike Callihan (D) released a letter from Speaker
Foley showing Foley's "strong support" for Callihan to gain a
place on the Interior Cmte (release, 10/28). Callihan faces
House Min. leader Scott McInnis (R).
CT 05: Quinnipiac College surveyed 400 likely voters 10/23-
28; margin of error +/- 6% (Quinnipiac release, 10/30). Tested:
Rep. Gary Franks (R), Probate Judge James Lawlor (D) and state
Rep. Lynn Taborsak (ACP). ACP = A Connecticut Party.
Franks
37%
Taborsak
17
Lawlor
16
FL 09: Rep. Michael Bilirakis (R) and nurse Cheryl Davis
Knapp (D) held their first debate ever, even though they faced
each other in '90. Bilirakis: "Change for change sake leads
nowhere.' " Knapp: "I've been representing people in the most
critical time of their lives. I've been their lifeline" (ST.
PETE TIMES, 10/24).
GA 04: Hickman-Brown Research surveyed 400 registered
voters 10/25-26 for state Sen. Cathey Steinberg (D) ; margin of
error +/- 4.9% (ATLANTA CONSTITUTION, 10/29). Tested:
Steinberg, ex-state Rep. John Linder (R)
Steinberg
50%
Linder
41
GA 09: WAGA-TV in Atlanta asked a federal judge to "declare
indecent a graphic anti-abortion" TV ad from Daniel Becker (R).
WAGA wants to run the ads only between midnight and 6am claiming
the material violates FCC rules and is not "fit for family
viewing." Becker has made abortion the focus of his campaign
against Dem state Sen. Nathan Deal (ATLANTA CONSTITUTION, 10/29).
ID 02: Idaho Falls POST REGISTER endorses state Sen. pres.
Mike Crapo (R) over Dem Auditor J.D. Williams (10/26). IDAHO
STATE JOURNAL also endorses Crapo (10/27).
KY 01: After months defending the House's vote for the '89
payraise, businessman Tom Barlow (D) is using a TV ad to say he
will oppose all future payraises. Preacher Steve Hamrick (R)
"That's about as bad a political move as I've seen anyone make"
(Lou. COURIER-JOURNAL, 10/30). C-J endorses Barlow (10/27).
KY 05: Louisville COURIER-JOURNAL endorses Rep. Harold
Rogers (R) over Dem challenger John Doug Hays (10/27).
MA 03: State Rep. Peter Blute (R) is demanding Early admit
to bouncing checks at the House bank. "Early responded that if a
bounced check means a check that has been returned without
payment, he denied 'bouncing' any checks" (BOSTON HERALD, 10/27).
GLOBE header: "In retrospect, Early regrets his 'ran like rats'
speech" (10/27). GLOBE endorses Early (10/26). The final debate
between the two "turned into a free-for-all ... when the format
was virtually ignored and issues were used mostly to hurl
insults" (GLOBE, 10/29). "Surprisingly, it was Blute who spent
much of the evening on the defensive" (HERALD, 10/29).
MA 05: In separate WCVB-TV interviews, ex-county prosecutor
Martin Meehan (D) and ex-Rep. Paul Cronin (R) "blamed each other"
for the negative campaign. Cronin, asked if he was "proud of his
attacks" calling Meehan a "political flunkie": "Well, yes and
no" (BOSTON GLOBE, 10/26). GLOBE endorses Meehan (10/26).
MA 06: With his "political career on the line, If Rep. Nick
Mavroules (D) "will make a last-ditch appeal to voters in a
televised campaign commercial that directly addresses the
corruption charges swirling around him." Mavroules, speaking
directly to the camera, claims the federal racketeering and
extortion charges are an "unfair political prosecution of lies
and innuendo": "My friends, I am innocent. And when all the
facts are known, it will be proven. Until then, I ask only that
you keep an open mind, consider all the good I have done, and
vote for me on Nov. 3." It's the first TV ad Mavroules has made
in ten years (Aucoin, BOSTON GLOBE, 10/30).
MD 01: In a 10/27 debate Rep. Wayne Gilchrest (R-01)
charged Rep. Tom McMillen (D-04) is running a negative campaign.
Gilchrest referred to a McMillen/DCCC ad showing "a thumb-sucking
child with the words 'Who would lie to this child?'" Then goes
on to claim Gilchrest has still not given his House payraise to
charities as he said he would do (Balto. EVENING SUN, 10/28).
NH 01: ARG surveyed 300 likely voters 10/27-28; margin of
error +/- 5.8% (release, 10/29). Tested: Rep. Bill Zeliff (R),
ex-Senate min. Leader Bob Preston (D).
Zeliff
47%
Preston
43
NJ 08: Newark STAR-LEDGER endorses businessman Herbert
Klein (D) over GOP state Sen. Joseph Bubba (10/26). N.Y. TIMES'
profiles the race, "one of the fiercest and most abrasive
campaigns in the state" (10/30).
OH 10: Cleveland PLAIN DEALER reports Rep. Mary Rose Oakar
(D) manager Bernard Demczuk "has been linked to efforts to get
the news media to report" that atty Martin Hoke (R) used cocaine.
Lisa Walters, named by anonymous faxes as having knowledge of
Hoke's cocaine use: "Bernard has been on my back every day.
They have pressured me so much. " Demczuk claims Walters called
him: "We told her, 'Do what you think is right. Hoke: "I did
not expect this kind of sleaze and ugliness" (10/30).
OK 05: TULSA WORLD endorses atty Laurie Williams (D) over
state Rep. Ernest Istook (R). Istook defeated Rep. Mickey
Edwards (R) in the primary (10/19).
OR 01: Peace activist Elizabeth Furse (D) filed an FEC
compliant claiming a mailing "last week" by the OR Right to Life
PAC for Treasurer Tony Meeker (R) violated the $10,000 PAC limit.
OR RTL-PAC spokesperson Lynda Harrington claimed the mailing was
not a contribution because it was "produced and distributed
without Meeker's knowledge" (Portland OREGONIAN, 10/27).
TX 02: The FBI "has confiscated audio tapes mailed to East
Texas news media" as the federal prosecutor determines whether
Donna Peterson's (R) cellular phone conversations were illegally
taped. Rep. Charles Wilson (D) denied any knowledge of the tapes
(HOUSTON CHRONICLE, 10/29). Peterson spokesman John Doner: "I
wouldn't have any problem calling this Wilson-gate even though I
have no hard evidence" (BEAUMONT ENTERPRISE, 10/29). AUSTIN
AMERICAN-STATESMAN includes Wilson with Reps. Coleman (D-16) and
Bustamante (D-23) as the "most vulnerable" TX incumbents (10/30).
VA 08: Rep. Jim Moran (D) said atty Kyle McSlarrow (R)
gives "him new appreciation" for 1990 opponent ex-Rep. Stan
Parris (R). McSlarrow has Moran "nostalgic for the combative"
Parris. Parris has endorsed McSlarrow, and "dismissed" Moran's
charge (W. TIMES, 10/27). W. POST endorsed Moran (10/25). W.
TIMES endorsed McSlarrow (10/28).
VA 11: A new ad from Del. Leslie Byrne (D) states atty
Henry Butler (R) was expelled from college. He was in fact
suspended for one year. Butler: "I've got an 8-year-old
daughter and I can't let her watch television because of this
stuff" (W. POST, 10/30). The POST endorses Byrne (10/25). W.
TIMES endorses Butler (10/28).
WI 06: MILWAUKEE JOURNAL's Jones reports some see the race
between Rep. Tom Petri (R-06) and state Rep. Peg Lautenschlager
(D) a "possible upset in the making." " Petri has "taken the
offense criticising Lautenschlager by name," signaling "an
incumbent who realizes he's in a close race" (10/25).
CALIFORNIA CABLE
*19 SENATE "A": RACE IS TIGHT AS A TUBE SOCK
The Field Poll, conducted 10/25-28, surveyed 1,106 likely
voters; margin of error 3.1%. A KCAL-TV poll, conducted 10/27-28
by Political/Media Research, surveyed 835 LVs; +/- 3.5%. Tested:
Rep. Barbara Boxer (D-06), TV commentator Bruce Herschensohn (R).
"A" SEAT
Field
KCAL
Boxer
44%
44%
Herschensohn
43
40
Undec.
13
16
Boxer's positive image has been "tarnished" as her support
among men has "eroded and her once huge lead collapsed."
Pollster Mervin Field: "Boxer may have made a mistake by
assuming people knew Herschensohn's (conservative) positions and
by letting him define her.' Herschensohn's negative ads whent
"unanswered" by Boxer for weeks. Although Boxer previously led
in every region of CA, it is now "breaking along classic regional
lines" (Roberts, S.F. CHRONICLE, 10/30).
MORE: Congressional perks "have proved troublesome" to
Boxer. "In recent weeks, Herschensohn has narrowed Boxer's lead
in statewide polls by launching a series of television ads that
attack her use of taxpayer-financed benefits. And there is not
letup in sight." In the last week, Herschensohn's camp began
airing its fifth and sixth ads hitting Boxer on the subject.
Herschensohn manager Ken Khachigian: "Perks will be an issue
until election morning in one form or another." Boxer called
Herschensohn "disingenuous" for airing the perks spot, "citing
his use of taxpayer-financed benefits in the 1970's as a mid-
level employee in the" Nixon admin. (Bunting, L.A. TIMES, 10/29).
RIGHT WING: CA's Religious right "is stepping up its
support of" Herschensohn, "and their efforts have helped swell
his backing statewide, political analysts and religious leaders
say." GOP consultant Eileen Padberg: "They've been out in the
churches the last three or four weeks, handing out ballots,
leafletting the parking lots during services ...
I think that's
why it (the race) is closing up." Kachigian: "They're very
active and they participate very heavily. They've been terrific
Bruce does his thing, they just happen to agree" (Pulliam,
ORANGE CO. REGISTER, 10/28).
*20 SENATE "B": FEINSTEIN HOLDS ONTO WIDE LEAD
The Field Poll, conducted 10/25-28, surveyed 1,106 likely
voters; margin of error 3.1% (Field release, 10/29). Political/
Media Research surveyed 835 LVs 10/27-28; +/- 3.5% (KCAL, 10/29).
Sen. John Seymour (R), ex-S.F. Mayor Dianne Feinstein (D).
"B" SEAT
PMR
Field
Feinstein
50%
50%
Seymour
37
36
Undec.
13
14
POLL UPDATE
*21 WSJ/NBC: CLINTON 44%, BUSH 34%, PEROT 15% (ALL RVs)
1,507 registered voters (RVs), including 1,158 regular
voters (those who say they vote half of time or more), surveyed
10/27-28 by Peter Hart (D) and Vince Breglio (R) ; margin of error
+/- 2.5% for RVs and +/- 2.9% for regular voters (W.S. JOURNAL
release, 10/29).
ALL RVs REGULAR VOTERS
(ALL RVs 2-DAY)
TWO JUST
TWO
JUST
MIGHT
2ND CHOICE
DAY
10/28
DAYS
10/28
CHANGE CLIN BUSH PERO
CLINTON
44%
45%
43%
43%
Clinton vote 22%
--
29%
49%
BUSH
34
35
37
38
Bush vote
21%
31%
--
45%
PEROT
15
13
13
11
Perot vote
49%
49%
39%
--
NOTE: W.S. JOURNAL did not publish the single day numbers
for all RVs or for Regular Voters, although USA TODAY, in
reporting the poll numbers, cited only the single 10/28 numbers
for regular voters, calling them "553 likely voters" with a m/e
+/- 5% (USA TODAY, 10/30). W.S. JOURNAL's Rich Jaroslavsky again
warned that "regular voters" are not "likely voters" since
mischaracterization cuts out about 23% of the sample, and cuts
out a disproportionate number of young people.
Pollsters Breglio and Hart: "The momentum of the trial heat
favors George Bush. [But] in the end, elections always come back
to the fundamentals. The fundamentals of this election favor
Bill Clinton." W.S. JOURNAL's Shribman & Perry write that for
Clinton to win he needs a "solid turnout" of those under age 35
(who split 47-27% for Clinton over Bush), and that Clinton leads
by 14% among all women and 20% among women under 40 (10/30).
*22 ABC TRACKING: CLINTON 44%, BUSH 35%, PEROT 16%
903 likely voters surveyed 10/27-28, margin of error +/- 4%
(ABC release, 10/29). Final survey date shown.
10/28
27
26
25
24
22
21
20
19
18
17
15
14
13
Clinton
44%
42%
41%
44%
44%
45%
43%
44%
46%
49%
49%
44%
44%
45%
Bush
35
35
34
33
34
32
32
32
30
30
31
34
37
35
Perot
16
20
21
19
17
15
17
16
15
13
12
12
11
11
DO YOU THINK
...
HAS THE KIND OF PERSONALITY AND TEMPERAMENT IT
TAKES TO SERVE EFFECTIVELY AS PRESIDENT, OR NOT?
LVs
10/28
10/25
10/24
YES NO
YES NO
YES NO
Clinton 57% 36% 56% 38% 57% 38%
Bush 58% 35% 57% 40% 58% 40%
Perot 32% 57% 40% 51% 38% 54%
*23 CNN/USA TODAY TRACK: IT'S A 1-PT LEAD INCLUDING LAST NIGHT
1,657 likely voters surveyed 10/27-28 by Gallup; margin of
error +/- 3%. Date shown is the final date of the two-day
rolling track (CNN 10/29, USA TODAY, 10/30). Also shown is the
earlier tracking of registered voters, with the date shown the
final date of 2 or 3 day rolling track (m/e +/- 3%).
LVs
10/29
10/28
27
26
Clinton 41%
41%
40%
42%
Bush
40
38
38
36
Perot
14
16
16
17
RVs
10/26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
Clinton
42%
42%
39%
41%
43%
44%
45%
47%
48%
46%
47%
47%
47%
46%
Bush
31
31
32
30
31
32
32
29
30
34
34
34
32
34
Perot
20
19
20
20
18
17
15
15
15
14
14
13
15
13
Note: CNN's Wm Schneider took a unique analysis to put
their Gallup tracking in perspective. He averaged the results of
six national polls (CNN/USA TODAY/Gallup tracking, W. POST, L.A.
TIMES, NBC/WSJ, BATTLEGROUND tracking and ABC tracking). It
produced: CLINTON 43%, BUSH 35%, PEROT 18%. Schneider: "Now the
error margin is between 3 and 4 points. So all of the polls
were within the margin of error of that average result we just
saw. So basically, the polls are strikingly consistent" (10/29).
*24 BATTLEGROUND '92 TRACKING: IT'S 5-PT LEAD THRU LAST NIGHT
1,000 registered voters, surveyed 10/26-29 by The Tarrance
Group (R); m/e +/- 3%. Battleground surveys 250 RVs nightly to
provide a rolling 4-day sample. No polling is done on Fri/Sat.
Date shown is final of 4 survey dates. NOTE TO MEDIA: Please
cite as "Battleground Poll." This is not a HOTLINE poll.
RVs 10/29 28 27 26 25 22 21 20 19 18 15 14 FAV/UNF
Clinton 41% 40% 42% 44% 45% 45% 46% 46% 45% 45% 43% 41% 50%/44%
Bush
36
35
34
32
32
32
31
32
33
32
33
35
46
50
Perot
17
19
18
18
18
17.
18
17
16
14
15
14
44
46
*25 PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES: GOP BENCHMARK HAS RACE IN MARGIN
800 likely voters surveyed 10/27-29 by P.O.S. -- a GOP firm;
margin of error +/- 3.5% (P.O.S. release, 10/30).
Clinton 36%
Bush
33
Perot
15
Undec.
14
TV MONITOR
*26 THIS MORNING: ABC's "GMA" hosted Clinton, a mock debate on
the economy with Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan (D-NY), Perot
counsel Clay Mulford and SC Gov. Carroll Campell (R). NBC's
"Today" hosted Bush, Gore, Bush adviser Charlie Black and Clinton
adviser Paul Begala. "CBS This Morning" hosted Barbara Bush,
Clinton chair Mickey Cantor and Rep. Vin Weber (R-MN) (10/30).
LAST NIGHT: ABC, NBC, CNN led with Clinton. CBS led with
Perot. PBS' "M/L" led with Bush and focused on voter
registration with Mark Shields, David Gergen, Dem pollster Peter
Hart, GOP pollster Ed Goeas, National Coalition on Black Voter
Participation exec. dir. Sonia Jarvis, MS Sec/State Dick Molpus
and LOWV pres. Becky Cain. CNN: "Crossfire" hosted GOP
strategist Haley Barbour, Dem strategist Mark Siegel and Perot
council Clay Mulford, "Larry King" hosted Perot. ABC's
"Nightline" explored Perot in depth (10/29).
PROJECTIONS: NBC's Hagar: "Networks say they won't delay
projecting a presidential winner.
Some believe this may
discourage late western voters form bothering to go to the polls.
Which could affect local races." Portland's KOIN manager Mick
Schapo, one of 4 CBS affiliates dropping nat'l programming until
polls close: "We're going to control our election coverage on a
local basis." Rep. Ron Wyden (D-OR) "Given the stakes, I don't
think it's too much to ask that the networks show that hour of
voluntary restraint." VRS pollster Warren Mitofsky: "There are
over 18 studies and not a single one of those studies shows any
measurable effect." Hagar noted the House has passed a solution
3 times: close all polls at 9:00p EST and keep the West on
Daylight Savings Time for an extra 2 weeks so they would close
the same time as Mountain Time. The Senate always rejects that
idea, "so tonight, the networks blame Congress, Congress blames
the networks and both agree to disagree" (10/29).
LETTERMAN'S TOP TEN REASONS CLINTON IS LOSING HIS LEAD:
10. Ill-advised new slogan: "Vote Bush."
9. Bad idea to tell Larry King "I'm going to tax these pinheads
till they're drier than Death Valley.
8. Drank too much grape soda.
7. Voters turned off by his vision of "Nation of Hillbillies."
6. Bush's new campaign promise to neuter that guy in the
Burger King commercials.
5. Voters wonder how such a handsome man could possibly
understand the problems of ordinary people.
4. Promised to hit homerun for sick child, grounded
weakly to short.
3. People seem to realize he's kind of a load.
2. More and more people like the idea of a tiny insane
millionaire running things.
1. Stockdalemania. ("Latenight," NBC, 10/29).
TV SOUNDBITE
"What passes for a campaign schedule here reads more like a 'TV
Guide. -- ABC's Dean from Perot HQ, "Nightline," ABC, 10/29.
*
THE HOTLINE ELECTION POOL
In coordination with the Graduate School of Political
Management and the National Center for Communication Studies at
G.W. Univ., The HOTLINE is conducting its Election Year '92
Pundit Pool. The winner's name will be published on the front
page of The HOTLINE 11/5. The losers' names will be known only
to us. Simply fill out the form and return it via FAX to (202)
234-5233 BEGINNING NOON FRIDAY 10/30. DEADLINE: MONDAY 11/2 7PM.
1) ELECTORAL COLLEGE I
Declare each state for the candidate that you think will its
electoral college votes. C = Clinton; B = Bush; P = Perot
Alabama (9)
Montana (3)
Alaska (3)
Nebraska (5)
Arizona (8)
Nevada (4)
Arkansas (6)
New Hampshire (4)
California (54)
New Jersey (15)
Colorado (8)
New Mexico (5)
Connecticut (8)
New York (33)
Delaware (3)
North Carolina (14)
D.C. (3)
North Dakota (3)
Florida (25)
Ohio (21)
Georgia (13)
Oklahoma (8)
Hawaii (4)
Oregon (7)
Idaho (4)
Pennsylvania (23)
Illinois (22)
Rhode Island (4)
Indiana (12)
South Carolina (8)
Iowa (7)
South Dakota (3)
Kansas (6)
Tennessee (11)
Kentucky (8)
Texas (32)
Louisiana (9)
Utah (5)
Maine (4)
Vermont (3)
Maryland (10)
Virginia (13)
Massachusetts (12)
Washington (11)
Michigan (18)
West Virginia (5)
Minnesota (10)
Wisconsin (11)
Mississippi (7)
Wyoming (3)
Missouri (11)
2) TIEBREAKER 1: ELECTORAL COLLEGE II
Fill in the number of electoral votes expected for each.
CLINTON
BUSH
PEROT
3) TIEBREAKER 2: POPULAR VOTE
Fill in the percentage of the national vote expected for each.
CLINTON
BUSH
PEROT
####
White House News Summary
Friday, October 30, 1992
4:15 P.M. EST/3:15 P.M. CST NEWS UPDATE
NEWSWEEK POLL (New York/AP) -- Declining support for Ross Perot has
helped President Bush pull into a statistical tie with Bill Clinton
in two polls released today that rely on Gallup predictions about
who is likely to vote. A Newsweek poll taken Wednesday and
Thursday showed Clinton with 41%, Bush with 39% and Perot with 14%
among 808 likely voters. The 2-point difference was within the
poll's 4-point margin for error. The CNN-Newsweek tracking poll
had Clinton ahead 41-40%.
PRESIDENT'S TRIP (Nashville/Lori Santos, UPI) -- Assailing the
economic proposals of Democrat Bill Clinton, President Bush
promised quick action to right the economy before January's
presidential inauguration. Setting aside his harsh attacks of
recent days, Bush instead sought to portray a possible Clinton
administration as relying on an even bigger federal bureaucracy.
"Gov. Clinton dreams of expanding the American government, and I
want to work to expand the American dream," Bush said. Bush
outlined what he called "my action plan" that he promised to set
in motion "between November and January." His first step would be
to meet with all the new members of Congress "and to shape a
legislative package in a way that will guarantee swift passage.'
Speaking before a convention of about 2,000 Kentucky Fried
Chicken franchise owners, Bush sought to counter Clinton's popular
call for economic change. "A vote for'our philosophy is a vote for
change that really matters," Bush said.
CLINTON/ENVIRONMENTAL SPENDING (Reuter) -- Clinton and his
environmentalist running mate Al Gore promise to revolutionize U.S.
environmental and energy policies if they win the 1992 election,
but it may prove a tougher job than they realize. While both
Clinton's backers and critics agree reforms are needed to slash
America's voracious appetite for energy, they warn tough economic
times mean Clinton will find no quick, cheap fixes. "There is very
little margin to go farther in regulation than we have gone. And
there is no more money," said one senior Bush official. "The
expectations of environmentalists are going through the roof and
they are not going to be met." Policy analysts say Clinton will
need a lot of ingenuity -- and possibly some courageous tinkering
with the tax code -- to achieve his ambitious environmental aims.
CLINTON/FOREIGN TAXES (Reuter) -- Clinton has said he wants to
raise $45 billion over the next four years by closing tax loopholes
on foreign companies, but the firms and most analysts think the
money just isn't there. They said Clinton won't be able to raise
anywhere near that much unless he tries to change the tax laws on
U.S. subsidiaries of foreign firms, a lengthy process that could
invite retaliation from abroad. "We don't say that foreign
companies shouldn't be paying their fair share," said Nancy
McLernon, director of the Washington office of the Organization for
International Investment. "But there is no way they (the Clinton
camp) can get the $45 billion under existing laws."
Robert Shapiro, a vice president at the Progressive Policy
Institute think-tank and an adviser to Clinton, said he was
confident Clinton can raise the $45 billion.
-more-
White House News Summary
Friday, October 30, 1992 -- 2
S.F. CHRONICLE/ENDORSEMENT (Reuter) -- The San Francisco Chronicle
gave a ringing endorsement to President Bush, saying it was of
profound importance that Americans return him to the White House.
The Chronicle said the basic issue, at a time when the condition
of the U.S. economy was crucial, was which party philosophy and
which candidate was more economically literate. "The answer is
clearly free-market economics and George Bush," it said in an
editorial.
The newspaper said Clinton is "simply promising that his
government will spend money on virtually everyone -- with no
discussion whatsoever of the inevitable, unavoidable price tag of
increased taxes."
A poll by independent pollsters California Poll said today
Clinton was leading Bush by 16 points among likely California
voters.
IRAN ARMS (Reuter) -- A note written in 1986 by Secretary
Weinberger at a key January meeting supported the arms-for-
hostages dealings with Iran, according to new evidence released
today. The Weinberger note undercuts Bush's long-standing claim
that he was "out of the loop" and not aware of opposition to the
arms deal by Weinberger and Secretary Shultz. The latest evidence
was contained in an indictment brought by a federal grand jury
under the direction of Lawrence Walsh charging Weinberger with
lying to Congress about whether he took notes related to the
affair.
###
Coleman/Bartlett's
daily
Washington Focus
10/30
John Coleman, Jr.
222 E. Wisconsin Ave. . Suite 115
Charles L. Bartiett
Lake Forest, IL 60045
1529 18th Street, N.W.
(708) 234-0082
Washington, DC 20036
TAX:(708) 234-0903
(202) 234-3681
Thank him to
FAX: (202) 483-6018
show the
Memo to the President
from Charley Bartlett
>
JAB
9
You are red hot
Those interview programs are really going
well. You come over best in your most benign state of mind,
slightly less well when there is an edge of irritation in your
voice. But you have the look and manner - and after all the
BUSH LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY GEORGE BUSH HANDWRITING
status of a President and it is very impressive.
I agree very much with Dick Moore that the last shot should
be, if possible, a national "Ask GB", if possible with undecided
voters. Ed Ney and Doug Bailey also agree that this would be a
stronger climax than the two-minute spots, good as they are. Ney
asks me to remind you that John Major had great success at the
end of his campaign with the middle class tax hike issue. And it
is great to do, as you have been doing, what you can to remind
the voters that there is a world out there and someobody with
experience has to deal with it.
The big thing is that you have caught fire and are right on
target - to mix a couple of metaphors. Bob Blake says he has
never seen anything like the action at the GOP headquarters in
Lubbock. Our hearts are travelling with you.
October 29. 1992
e.B
10/30/92
Just in over the
President's
gove
for nover To thank cB
personal fax.
CB asked that it
be forwarded.
Amy Grant
husband: Gary Chapman
Baby: Sarah Cannon Chapman
Nashville, TN
Oct
30,
1992
Mr. you President, on see agrie then a
To Amy, Gary and Sarah, too
Love from all the Bushes.
G Buil
10-30-92
Presidential Phone Calls
Aboard Air Force One
CANADA INTERNITED SEAL UNITED THE
fite
to
DATE: 10-30-92 TIME:
coming / outgoing
WITH:
Grit Bell
SUBJECT:
Thank him
never god
I'm
FOLLOW UP:
BUSH LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY - GEORGE BUSH HANDWRITING
Bell
DOCUMENT=
1 OF
1 PAGE =
3 OF
3
and for the visit to Sea Island. He also mentions quail
hunting this winter.
12/11/91 GB sent photo of golf game.
3/9/92 GB handwrote a letter about playing golf soon.
4/25/92 GB sends photo of them golfing.
notme.
5/5/92 GB thanks for his note on time they spent at CD.
10/5/92 GB handwrites thanks for Savannah endorsement that
EHoliday passed along. "Warm regards."
I0601 * End of documents in list. Press ENTER or enter another command.
4BÜ
Priday October 30, 1992 A15.
The Atlanta Journal / The Atlanta Constitution
Why this lifelong Democrat
is sticking with the president
By Griffin B. Bell
business before ever thinking about run-
ning for public office. Mr. Clinton, by
am a lifelong Democrat. I was Geor-
contrast, has been running for public of-
gia co-chairman of John F. Kennedy's
fice his entire adult life.
presidential campaign. President
Mr. Clinton and the media will not
Kennedy appointed me to the federal
give Mr. Bush much credit, but I believe
bench, where I served for nearly 15
the American people will. During Mr.
years. I had the privilege to serve Presi-
Bush's presidency, the Berlin Wall came
dent Carter and the country as attorney
down, Soviet communism has been beat-
general.
en, Eastern Europe is free, Saddam Hus-
Notwithstanding
sein was thrown out of Kuwait and his
my longstanding par-
military machine decimated, and there
ty affiliation, I sup-
is real hope for peace in the Middle East.
port George Bush for
president based on
Most important to today's immediate
his experience, lead-
concerns, the U.S. economy is poised for
renewal and growth. We have had six
ership and integrity.
I have known
months of steady and sustained growth,
George Bush since he
including higher growth than expected
Griffin Bell
was CIA director. I
during the last quarter; inflation is way
have served as a member of his presi-
down; interest rates are way down; un-
dential task force to examine ethical
employment is slowly dropping; housing
standards for federal public service, and
starts are way up. Virtually every eco-
have had many personal opportunities to
nomic indicator is positive.
judge his character and ability firsthand.
Managing a national economy in a
The presidency is an awesome office.
global economic world is no easy task;
It is not one that should be entrusted
there are no easy fixes or quick cures.
lightly to just any political figure, no
Mr. Bush has been criticized for current
matter how polished their speaking
economic conditions, but we must not be
style, no matter how many times the
so frustrated by those conditions as to
mantra for "change" is repeated.
lose sight of the need for strong, stable,
0
Like all of you, I have lived through
experienced leadership to guide our
the yearlong Democratic, media-fed
country forward during what is general-
bashing of Mr. Bush, but I believe the
ly conceded to be a worldwide recession.
American people in their heart of hearts
Mr. Bush calls for lower taxes on
know that Mr. Bush is a man of tested
working Americans, less government,
character and integrity.
lower federal spending, tax incentives
The gravity of the powerful decision
for growth and investment, a world-class
that each of us must make in the voting
American education system and a com-
booth Tuesday is beginning to set in as
mon-sense approach to health care.
the election draws near.
One's whole life is a foreshadowing of
In selecting a president, we must rise
both character and experience.
above political parties and vote for who
Just out of high school, George Bush
is best for our country. I believe that
became a fighter pilot in World War II,
there is only one candidate who meets
the standard Americans demand and de-
where he was a genuine combat hero.
Bill Clinton has had no military experi-
serve - George Bush.
ence, although he had the chance during
I am proud to support him.
the Vietnam War.
Griffin B. Bell, on Atlanta attorney, was U.S.
Mr. Bush started a business and
attorney general during President Carter's
spent half his adult life running that
term in the White House.
"All the News
That's Fit to Print"
The New York Times
NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
The Youth Vote
DEMOCRATS COURT
YOUNGEST VOTERS
Clinton and Gore Reach Out
for Generational Support
That Bush Had in '88
By ROBERTO SURO
Special to The New York Times
BEAUMONT, Tex., Oct. 29 - Al
Gore did not do much to draw wild
Shift to Democrats Likely
applause. All he said was: "George
Bush is out of time. Bill Clinton and Al
In the 1988 election, more than seven
Gore will be automatic for the people."
million voters between the ages of 18
Michael Stipe, lead singer of the rock
and 24, or 55 percent, picked Mr. Bush, .
while 45 percent backed the Democrat-
group R.E.M., had just given the Demo-
ic candidate, Michael S. Dukakis. This
cratic ticket a passionate endorsement
before a crowd of several thousand
year, Mr. Gans said, they may support
young people on the University of Geor-
the Democrats with the strength nor-
gia campus in Athens, and Mr. Gore's
mally seen among black, Jewish and
Hispanic voters.
response was a wordplay on the title
songs of the band's two hit albums.
On the level of political imagery, the
The event was carefully scripted be-
Democrats' appeal is as simple as
their ages: Mr. Clinton is 46 and Mr.
cause this year the Democrats are
Gore, his running mate, is 44. After Mr.
mounting a broad, coordinated effort to
win over a major voting block that has
Gore spoke at the University of Geor-
solidly backed Republicans in the last
gia, some students were asked by a
three Presidential elections and that
reporter what they thought of Mr.
Gore. One shouted, At least he can
has shown strong support this year for
relate to us!"
Ross Perot, the independent candidate.
Vice President Dan Quayle, who is
Many voters born in the 1960's and
45, appears to hold little attraction for
70's grew up with Ronald Reagan as
young Americans: those in the poll
their political hero. But now the Demo-
gave him a favorability ratings of 22
crats, with their baby-boomer ticket
and message of generational change,
percent, lower than that for any top
believe they have a chance to engineer
candidate except Mr. Perot's running
mate, James B. Stockdale.
a shift that could make the difference
The generational endorsement of the
in an increasingly close election.
Democratic ticket, of course, is not
Making the Campus Circuit
automatic. Tripp Greeson, a 19-year-
Last week, on the same day. Senator
old from Atlanta, said of Mr. Gore: "It
Gore spoke outside the University of I
doesn't matter much that he's young or
Georgia's student union, his wife, Tip-
that Michael Stipe likes him. It would-
per, Governor Clinton and his wife,
n't matter at all if he wasn't out there
Hillary, each made separate appear-
talking about things we care about."
ances on other college campuses
Emphasis on the Environment
around the country, and that kind of
One of the things the Democrats are
scheduling is not unusual. Mr. Clinton
and Mr. Gore have each appeared on
talking about, and the young care
about, is the environment. In the
MTV's political news program
"Choose or Loose." President Bush,
Times/CBS News Poll, young voters
gave Senator Gore, who has made the
who has refused past invitations from
the program and once dismissed it as a
environment a matter of personal ad-
show for "teenyboppers," agreed to-
vocacy, favorability ratings of 35 per-
cent, the highest of any top candidate.
day to appear on it Sunday.
For young audiences, the Democrats
In the last 48 hours alone, Mr. Gore
has campaigned on campuses in Wis-
sauce their economic-message with a
touch of insurgency reminiscent of the
consin, New Mexico and here in Beau-
mont, where he spoke today at Lamar
George McGovern campaign of 1972,
the last Democratic effort to galvanize
University.
young voters.
The effort appears to be paying off.
"All over the world we have seen
In a New York Times/CBS News Poll
conducted last week, Mr. Clinton had
young people lead the way to change,"
is the way Mr. Gore begins a passage
the support of 40 percent of the proba-
ble voters who are 19 to 30 years old;
inserted in his standard speech when
he appears before young voters.
Mr. Bush had 30 percent. The margin
He brings them to their feet by con-
between the two candidates was only
cluding: "Now it's our turn in the Unit-
five percentage points when respond-
ents of all ages were tallied.
ed States to have change. Young people
Mr. Perot had the support of 23 per-
in the United States are saying: 'Trick-
cent of the young voters in the poll, his
le-down economics is really stupid!
Let's get rid of it!'
strongest showing in any age group;
his overall support was 15 percent. The
poll, based on telephone interviews
with 1,854 adults nationwide, has a
margin of sampling error of plus or
minus three percentage points.
"All the News
That's Fit to Print"
The New York Times
NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
Hillary Clinton
From Lawyer to Mother
To, Now, All of the Above
By FELICITY BARRINGER
Special to The New York Times
CLEVELAND, Oct. 29 - In the wan-
shot going to and from school, being
ing days of the campaign, Hillary Clin-
shot as they stand on the playgrounds,
ton, who has emphasized two distinct
being caught in random gunfire," Mrs.
aspects of her personality, is putting
Clinton told 40 ministers here at the
everything together for the stretch
First United Methodist Church on
run: highlighting her command of poli-
Wednesday.
cy, her confident assertiveness and her
"I think it is a government's primary
husband, the Presidential candidate.
responsibility to keep its citizens safe,'
It is as if she has had three incarna-
she went on. "And my husband be-
tions during the campaign. There was
lieves that as well."
Hillary I, the accomplished lawyer who
Return to Assertiveness
spoke of herself as part of a "Blue
primary developer of the values and
Light special," saying "people call us
Such language is a far cry from the
the mindset of a child," Mrs. Clinton
two-for-one."
cookie recipies that she was offering a
said. "But as the Catholic bishops said,
After the conventions, there was Hil-
few months ago. They are closer to the
a child is a result both of his or her
lary II, whom the Cuyahoga County
assertive image that led an article in
family's values and the policies of the
Commissioner Mary Boyle called "the
the conservative journal The Ameri-
nation in which that child resides.
good wife of a candidate, the good
can Spectator to label her "Lady Mac-
"So what 1 would like to do is to end
family member of a candidate, with
beth of Little Rock" and "the Winnie
the false debate, end the finger-point-
her special interest, children." She
Mandela of American politics."
ing, end the blaming."
added, "Basically she had been
In Mrs. Clinton's most-quoted piece
Mary Rose Oakar, Cleveland's Dem-
tamed."
of writing, published in the Harvard
ocratic Congresswoman, one of Mrs.
Finally, there is Hillary III, a hybrid
Educational Review 19 years ago, she
of the earlier images. More and more
wrote that children's rights have been
Clinton's supporters, said later: "I
of the professional women who form
bypassed. "The basic rationale for de-
think she's struck a happy balance.
the core of her rallies from Cleveland
priving people of rights in a dependen-
Maybe she was a little extreme in
to Trenton to Annapolis, Md., agree
cy relationship is that certain individ-
being self-assertive early on. But she's
with Patsy Morrison, a small-business
uals are incapable or undeserving of
extremely comfortable now. She's be-
owner in Cleveland: "She's combined
the right to take care of themselves
ing who she is."
the two. She's her own person who
and consequently need social institu-
Daniel Wattenberg, author of The
happens to be the wife of a candidate."
tions specifically designed to safe-
American Spectator article, says he
Her aides argue that Mrs. Clinton
guard their position."
has also seen "a few signs here and
has not changed; only the perceptions
She went on, "Along with the family,
there" that Hillary's personal voice is
of the voters have, they say. "The
past and present examples of such
more audible.
American people are just getting to
arrangements include marriage, slav-
know her better," said Lisa Caputo,
ery and the Indian reservation
"My belief is that after the election
Mrs. Clinton's press secretary. "She's
system."
she will emerge as a power center in
the same person she always has been."
The Republicans' gleeful repetition
the White House. If so, it will be a
of these words, often out of context,
power center with a new left flavor."
Her Own Voice
became a staple in the "family values"
Amy Anderson, of Durwood, Md.,
One clue to where she stands is her
theme of their convention.
who attended a rally on Tuesday in
language. Although most of her sen-
One of the clearest indications of
Annapolis, said, "I don't think there
tences revolve around the plans of "my
Mrs. Clinton's return to a more asser-
should be any limits on her as First
husband," Hillary Clinton's personal
tive mode came as she was speaking at
Lady. I don't think there will be be-
voice - and the pronoun "I" - can
the ministers' gathering, when she
cause we're looking at a different kind
often be heard on such issues as keep-
cited a pastoral letter from the Nation-
of candidate."
ing abortion legal or keeping streets
al Conference of Catholic Bishops.
safe.
"I don't know anyone who argues
"I'm sick and tired of children being
with the idea that the family is the
"All the News
That's Fit to Print"
The New York Times
NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
Clinton Shifting His Focus From Issues to Adopt
Attack Strategy of a Campaign Underdog
By GWEN IFILL
Special to The New York Times
SECAUCUS, N.J. Oct. 29 - Respond-
message about the economy and jobs,
ing to a tightened Presidential race,
and for him to deliver a long-awaited
Gov. Bill Clinton today essentially
speech on AIDS in Jersey City. In the a
scrapped plans to spend the final days
speech in the rotunda of the Hudson
of his campaign concentrating on sub-
County courthouse this evening, Mr.
stantive issues and instead hops-
Clinton linked the need for Federal
cotched to three states and directed his
action on AIDS to steps he has advocat-
firepower at President Bush.
ed on other health care issues, includ-
Even as he sought to strike a sober
ing breast and ovarian cancer. But he
tone for speeches on the economy and
made a special plea for new attention
on AIDS research, Mr. Clinton cast his
to AIDS and urged an end to prejudice
policy discussion in terms of what Mr.
directed at those who carry the virus.
Bush lacks. And although he still leads
in most polls, Mr. Clinton said for the
Plans for War on AIDS
first time in weeks that he considered
"We must all remember that for all
himself an "underdog" in the race for
its terror and far reach, it is still a
President.
disease," Mr. Clinton said. "It is not
"When Mr. Bush tells us we have to
vengeance or punishment or just des-
rejoice at our economic plight, I think
serts. It is an illness. We have fought
we have to tell him it's time to move
illnesses before, and we must fight this
beyond the passivity and complacency
one now."
of his Presidency and of this cam-
Mr. Clinton said he would increase
paign," he said during a speech at the
financing for AIDS research, enforce
University of Toledo.
anti-discrimination laws, appoint a
Crisscrossing Campaign Paths
Continued on Page A18, Column I
Mr. Bush and Mr. Clinton have been
all but colliding with each other as they
jet from one must-win state to another.
Today, Mr. Clinton followed Mr. Bush
by a day in Toledo, then campaigned at
the same time as the President in a
different part of Michigan/ Then he
spent the afternoon in New Jersey.
"The American people are going to
have to think a long time before they
want four more years of this," Mr.
Clinton said of the Bush Administra-
tion. "It will be a miserable experience
for them, and I don't think they'
going to go through with it."
When a supporter wished Mr. Clinton
good luck in Ohio and Michigan as he
boarded a plane for Newark, he re-
sponded: "If I win both of them, this
election's over."
Mr. Clinton's campaign day reflect-
ed the strategic tug-of-war that is going
on within the Democratic campaign.
Plans called for him to stick to a loftier
"All the News
That's Fit to Print"
The
York
Times
NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
The Democrats
Putting Issues
Aside, Clinton
Attacks Bush
Continued From Page Al
Federal official to oversee the Govern-
ment's response and mount a "loud,
clear and consistent war on AIDS."
He also said children should be
taught about how the AIDS virus is
contracted "at the earliest practical
time."
"I do believe the instruction of our
children should be based on values that
we all share," he said. "I believe chil-
the never called, American never Harry called, Truman was
for "There average people. press corps. He dishonest fought by
will Bush say is no campaign, Mr. standard of truth in
Although anything. Clinton said. the
dren should be discouraged from hav-
ton have has been also his much more attacks on Ross "He
rot ent's has candidacy, questioned the muted, Mr. Clin- Perot
ing premature sexual conduct and
his "I bleakest style wish days when he was struggling campaign Harry Truman.
elected. "When Mr. been "spending charging that anything to Mr. get Pe- independ-
this and is as something good frightened as Bush looks America at and an anxious
from ever having any conduct with
than worse it about gets, that tells us
Clinton sald. anything I could his ever say, Mr. Presidency says
needles carrying drugs. But they must
be told that this killer can kill them."
Mr. Clinton criticized the Justice De-
partment support for allowing private
employers to cut off insurance cover-
age for employees who are H.I.V. in-
fected.
Campaign aides had planned for Mr.
Clinton to stick to this loftier tone
throughout the day, but after he left the
courthouse, he returned to the attack,
launching an additional verbal assault
in New of Hampshire. his primary in the
campaign it aide. was "In Tuesday,
we that we used to say every 1988 with said Dukakis, one
weeks. Now wished we day at this time
weeks ago.' I wish this had had two ended two more
'No Standard of Truth'
tive Clinton Throwing oratory at his Mr. entire arsenal of
mongering" accused the Bush today, Mr. nega-
"He has made and President 'mudslinging. of
has no record, he core of said in up Toledo. charges "The about my "fear-
conviction. This Is not man
on Mr. Bush outside.
Apparently stung by the President's
energetic recent attacks, Mr. Clinton
counterpunched for the second straight
day, vowing, "We're going to slam him
home in the next five days."
Shifting to the Offense
At a college, a downtown convention
center and a small-town courthouse,
the Governor's remarks, both on and'
off the stage, reflected new turmoil in a
campaign that has been sailing well
ahead of Mr. Bush in public opinion
polls for weeks.
Michigan, where Mr. Clinton ap-
peared today, is a classic example of
the state of flux that has marked the
recent days. Democratic officials there
and in Ohio said Mr. Clinton's support
dropped significantly after Mr. Perot
Clinton plays the
underdog as his
re-entered the race.
lead narrows.
Mr. between Mr. Begala tried to Clinton's draw a contrast
bordering President's. "George tactics and the
Mr. said. on Clinton the Bush hysterical,' is out Mr. Be- there
"It's all about trust," Donald
a first fled in natural recent dismissing has the days as seemed well. tightening more After at unset-
Sweitzer, a national Democratic offi-
were expected, more Mr. Clinton's Phenomenon that remarks had race been as
aggressive, reminiscent of today
cial who is following the Michigan cam-
paign said. "On issues, it's all moving
gala
the other way. Bush is wrong on every
issue with these voters."
The Clinton campaign today began
broadcasting two new 30-second com-
mercials. One uses blurry television
images promises of four President Bush
his sobor people they Presidency. will be The years ago, "better like off" telling making
four years later. announcer ad saying, closes "Well, with. unde
Another ad, which How're you doing? it's
they direct completed at 4 A.M. Clinton aides
that was response to a Bush today, was said
day attacking the broadcast beginning commercial
sources Arkansas. The ad Governor's record Wednes-
cial to accuse uses Bush commer- in third-party
of being the dishonest.
"Harry Truman
going he's Clinton "If he's to live by it, strategist and said said it, Paul and Begala, a we're
going to tell going the to tell truth lies about about him. us. speechwriter. we're
"All the News
That's Fit to Print"
The New York Times
NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
The Vice President
In the Final Push, Quayle Rallies Turn Into a Blur
By KAREN DE WITT
THE POLLS BUSH LEADS
his time pressing the flesh of Sunday
Specialio The New York Times
President Bush might be trailing
after-church diners.
AUGUSTA, Ga., Oct. 25 Vice Pres-
Gov. Bill Clinton in the popular
Ident Dan Quayle was heading into the
One woman, not aware that the cof-
polls, but he seems to have a com-
home stretch of his standard speech at
fee was not the point of the visit, chided
manding lead among business exec-
a Bush-Quayle rally here when he
the entourage of reporters and techni-
utives. Business Day, page DI.
threw in his usual charge that Gov. Bill
cians for not letting the Vice President
Clinton "waffles" on issues.
sit down and eat.
He had shaken her hand, she added,
To the dismay of Secret Service
the South going for George Bush? Is
and remarked that he was "a very nice
agents, a dozen frozen waffles flew up
America going for George Bush?"
man" who would probably get her vote.
from the audience. Mr. Quayle caught
The students, hoisting red, white and
one and the friendly crowd roared its
blue Bush-Quayle campaign signs,
By the end of the day Mr. Quayle had
approval. The waffles were a rare un-
yelled back in affirmation.
grasped the hands of more than 300
scripted moment for the Vice Presi-
people in stops at the Calvary Baptist
dent in his campaign for re-election,
Campaigns take on a sameness in
Temple, the Savannah Christian Pre-
although they have now become a sig-
their final days, a numbing repetition
paratory School, two political rallies, a
nature part of an event when he men-
of speeches and events. For a rally like
fund-raising event here in Augusta, the
tions waffling by the opposition.
the rally here at the Augusta Mall, the
mall visit and an air show.
- In the homestretch of the campaign
plan called for open press coverage,
Political Incantation
the days with Mr. Quayle have become
1,000 people in attendance, off-stage
a blur of sameness: rope-line greet-
announcement, brief remarks and rope
Much of a campaign consists of repe-
line.
ings, handshakes, local interviews, ral-
tition that becomes almost incantation.
lies and the oxymoronic "scheduled
"Is this crowd pumped up?" Mr.
Impromptus" with voters in shopping
Mr. Quayle touches hundreds upon
Quayle roared again to Bush-Quayle
malls and restaurants.
hundreds of people along rope lines in
supporters here. "Is this crowd fired
this campaign. Since the campaign
up? Is Augusta going for George Bush?
"Why am, I here?' Mr. Quayle has
started, he said, he has surely shaken
Is Georgia going for George Bush? Is
been known to ask his aides as Air
thousands and thousands of hands.
the South going for George Bush? Is
Force Two touches down in yet another
America going for George Bush?"
state. "Is this one it would be nice to
Meeting Mr. Wonderful
win, or one We must win?"
It was the same, with appropriate
42
A Must Win' State
But for Susan Davis, an unemployed
substitutions, in New Jersey, Pennsyl-
secretary who happened to be in the
vania, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Missou-
S & S restaurant in Savannah when Mr.
ri, Illinois and Wisconsin. Bill Clinton
Georgia is in the "must win" catego-
Quayle slopped, shaking hands with the
cannot be trusted. Bill Clinton will tax.
ry, so Mr. Quayle, fueled by the red
licorice he snacks on, was here for the
Vice President was a singular event.
Lately, Mr. Quayle has begun adding
second of three visits scheduled before
"He may be out in right field, but at
"courage" to his theme of "trust" in
Election Day. At the Savannah Chris-
least he's right," said Ms. Davis, a
his appeals to voters. "Have courage to
tian Preparatory School he rallied an
staunch Republican. "I think he's won-
stand up for George Bush," he said
audience of mostly students who are
derful."
here. "Have courage to stand up for
too young to vote.
yourself; have courage to stand up for
"Is this crowd fired up?" Mr. Quayle
Mr. Quayle also got his standard cup
your families; have courage to stand
of coffee black, no sugar. He always
-asked. "Is this crowd pumped up? Is offers to pay. And as usual, on this stop
up for your values; have courage to do
what is right for America, and that
Savannah going for George Bush? Is he mostly ignored his coffee and spent
means vote for George Bush."
"All the News
That's Fit to Print"
The New York Times
NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
Candidates Aim at Crucial States, and Each Other
Bush, Buoyed by Polls,
Scrambles to Rebuild
Winning Coalition
By MICHAEL WINES
Special to The New York Times
DETROIT, Oct. 29 - With some new
polls providing encouragement, Presi-
dent Bush and his strategists have be-
gun scrambling, hoping in the five days
left them to rebuild the shattered bloc
of Republicans and disaffected Demo-
crats that won the White House in 1988.
That is why they came to Michigan
today.
Mr. Bush returned to an old well-
spring of Democratic support, subur-
ban Macomb County, to sound the
alarms about high taxes and low char-
acter that he hopes will drive voters
away from Bill Clinton and into his
camp.
Hoarse and shouting over the crowd
of 10,000 people, Mr. Bush stripped his
message to its most pointed and stri-
dent essence.
'Crazy, Way Out, Far Out'
He accused Mr. Clinton of having
"given up on reducing the deficit."
Arms flailing, he denounced Mr. Clin-
ton's running mate, Senator Al Gore, as
an environmental extremist who is
"crazy, way out, far out, man."
He underscored his "big difference"
with people who would protest the Viet-
nam war overseas, as Mr. Clinton did,
"when your brother's in prison in Ha-
noi or your kids are being drafted out of
a ghetto somewhere."
Twice, he dismissed his two rivals
with contemptuous remarks, declaring
that "my dog Millie knows more about
foreign affairs than these two bozos."
And he turned one of Mr. Clinton's
favorite anti-Bush buzzwords against
him, calling a band of sign-waving Clin-
ton supporters at one Bush rally "a
little pathetic."
"They feel it slipping away from
them," he exulted. They know we're
going to win the election." The crowd
Continued on Page A17. Column !
"All the News
That's Fit to Print"
The New York Times
NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
Bush Rushing to Rebuild '88 Coalition
Continued From Page Al
at a cavernous junior-college field-
house roared its approval.
Later, speaking to an outdoor rally in
Grand Rapids dominated by a huge,
pink, elephant-shaped balloon, Mr.
Bush punched away at Mr. Clinton's
credibility again, saying, "What's
catching up with him now - what's
catching up with him just as we go
down to the wire - is this pattern of
deception."
"He said on April 17, 'I'm going to
reveal my draft records,' and we have-
n't seen them yet," he said: "You can't
say that you' going to have one posi-
tion than then another. You've got to
stand up and take a position and lead.
And that's what being President is all
about."
The President whose hyperbolic ora-
tory brought crowds to their feet today
bears scant resemblance to the George
Bush who has repeatedly decried the
"ugly" nature of this campaign.
But Mr. Bush is employing this saw-
tooth political style for a compelling
reason: he and his aides believe it
works.
They were asserting today that their
attacks have shifted the focus of the
political debate to the issue of charac-
ter, where the White House wants to
steer the debate, and to the best way to
revive the economy, where they feel
they are on at least equal footing.
Character and Trust
That means Mr. Clinton is spending
less time talking about the economy's
current sorry state, Mr. Bush's weak
spot, and more time defending his own
flanks.
"I heard Governor Clinton raise the
character question yesterday," Mr.
Bush said today. "Well, come on in.
Let's take it on character and trust."
His campaign spokeswoman, Torie
Clarke, added, "We'll take them on on
Jose R. Lopez/The New York Times
that any day, and we'll win hands-
President Bush was joined yesterday by former President Gerald R.
down."
Ford after arriving at the airport in Grand Rapids, Mich.
In fact, Mr. Bush has begun to leaven
his assaults on Mr. Clinton with large
doses of can-do optimism about the
future, something glaringly absent un-
ers to determine how much Mr. Clin-
tion of his national standing as well.
til this month.
ton's package of tax proposals "could"
They are the archetype of the financial-
The President has seized on Tues-
cost people in their income brackets.
ly struggling, anti-tax Democrats who
day's report of a healthy rise in eco-
Invariably, the totals are in the thou-
deserted Jimmy Carter for Ronald
sands of dollars.
Reagan in 1980, and stayed to vote for
nomic output as evidence of a looming
American revival, even if voters have
Mr. Clinton's economic proposals,
Mr. Bush in 1988.
yet to notice it.
Mr. Teeter said, "are the antithesis of
With the economy lagging most of
"There was very good news for this
what they want to hear."
this year, conventional wisdom this
country two days ago, and they hate
How much ground Mr. Bush has
year has held that these Reagan Demo-
it," he told 9,800 supporters in Grand
gained in recent polls depends on which
crats were rejecting Mr. Bush and
Rapids today. "The only way they can
of the wildly varying surveys one
swinging back to their party.
reads.
win is to convince America that we're
in a recession. We had growth of 2.7
The "tracking poll" conducted for
But the President's campaign chair-
CNN and USA Today showed Mr. Clin-
man, Robert M. Teeter, said in a tele-
percent. We have grown for six quar-
ters. And now let's keep it going.
ton preferred over President Bush by
phone interview today that it was not
Later, he spoke of "a worldwide re-
three percentage points today, 41 per-
happening. He said Mr. Bush had
covery led by the United States. that
cent to 38 percent. with 16 percent
pulled even in Macomb County. which
will "bring jobs 10 more Americans."
Ross and 5 percention
strongly in favor of Bill
Bush's andes assent that the com-
decided or supporting another cand:-
Clinton
320.
bination of slashing attacks and hope-
date. The margin of sampling error
close in Michigan, and
a
we
Mr
poll. new
Macomb,"
be
said.
ularity and lowering Mr. Clinten's
The
President's campaign chair-
viewed each day and reports are
Whether trends are sufficiently
Robert M. Teeter, said today that
combined
results
for
two
or
the believed. Mr. Clinton's lead was
more days at a time.
Tuesday's election remains unclear.
shriveling in Michigan. In large part,
When the findings of the most recent
But Mr. Teeter, who has every reason
he said. that is because Mr. Bush has
major national polls are averaged, Mr.
to appear optimistic, argued that the
shone a spotlight on Mr. Clinton's
Clinton leads Mr. Bush by 43 to 36
race was now close enough for Mr.
pledge billion. to raise Federal taxes by $150
percent, with 16 percent for Mr. Perot.
Bush to begin consolidating his hold on
the normally Republican South and
But the President was cheered this
Mr. Clinton says that new burden
West, regions that Mr. Clinton has
morning by a local television station
will fall mostly on the well-off and on
strongly contested all summer and fall.
survey that showed him in a statistical
foreign companies. Bush strategists
"If we can get that base back of 190
tie with Mr. Clinton in Michigan.
have responded by blanketing rallies
to 210 electoral votes in the West and
Macomb County's blue-collar con-
with cardboard devices. akin to simple
South," he said, "then you can go fight
servatives are the key to Mr. Bush's
slide rules, that supposedly enable vot-
him for those 60 or 70 other votes you
failure or success here, and an indica-
need to win an election."
CAMPAIGN ALMANAC
Countdown to Election Day
That's Fit to
GEORGE BUSH
BILL CLINTON
ROSS PEROT
ON TELEVISION
"All the News
Buoyed by several new polls,
With the Presidential race tight-
Mr. Perot's aides tried to diffuse
President Bush made a foray into
ening, Governor Clinton hops-
two issues that they fear have
President Bush 8 A.M., NBC
an old source of Democratic
cotched to three states, Ohio, Mich-
slowed his momentum: the accu-
(Channel 4 in New York), "To-
support, suburban Macomb County
Igan and New Jersey, and directed
day."
sation that he is trying to buy the
in Michigan, to sound the alarms
his firepower at President Bush.
election and his unsubstantiated
9 P.M., CNN, "Larry King Live,"
about high taxes and low character
As he sought to strike a sober tone
interview.
assertions that the Bush campaign
that he hopes will drive voters
for speeches on the economy and
planned to disrupt his daughter's
Gov. Bill Clinton 8 A.M., ABC
away from Gov. Bill Clinton. Strip-
on AIDS research, Mr. Clinton cast
wedding and to wiretap his busi-
(Channel 7 in New York), "Good
ping his message to its essence,
his policy discussion in terms of
ness telephones. Aides are con-
Morning America."
Mr. Bush told a crowd of 10,000
what Mr. Bush lacks. And although
fronting the first issue by saying
people that Mr. Clinton had "given
he still leads in most polls, Mr.
that-his two rivals have actually
Senator AI Gore 7:30 A.M. NBC,
up on reducing the deficit." Arms
Clinton said for the first time in
outspent him. They are confronting
flailing, he denounced Mr. Clin-
(Channel 4 in New York), "To-
weeks that he considered himself
the second issue with silence. "We
day," interview.
ton's running mate, Senator Al
an "underdog" In the race for
need to get back to our message,"
8 A.M., C-Span, live caller inter-
Gore, as an environmental extrem-
President. "The American people
Clayton Mulford, the Perot cam-
view.
ist who is "crazy, way out, far out,
are going to have to think a long
paign's general counsel, said
man." He said of the Democrats,
time before they want four more
Thursday. He also acknowledged
"They feel It slipping away from
years of this," Mr. Clinton said of
that polls show the surge for Mr.
them."
the Bush Administration.
Perot ending.
RECENT POLLS
Bush
A Narrow Lead
BC News
ct. 27-28
Clinton
Perot
Gov. Bill Clinton continues to
and made public yesterday Mr.
35%
lead President Bush, while the In-
Clinton's advantage over Mr. Bush
44%
creased support Ross Perot re-
was 3 percentage points among
16%
celved after the final debate ap-
likely voters but seven points
PREVIOUS POLLS
pears to have faded slightly, ac-
among all registered voters. The
cording to four new polls.
Gallup for CNN/USA Today
poll was conducted with 2,000 reg-
The Los Angeles Times Poll
When the polls are averaged,
istered voters.
Oct. 27-28
Oct. 24-26
Mr. Clinton has 43 percent of the
An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll
38
341
support, Mr. Bush 36 percent and
taken with 553 likely voters showed
41
Mr. Perot 16 percent.
44
Mr. Clinton's advantage at five
NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
16
Most national polls are being re-
points.
18
ported in terms of "likely voters"
An ABC News tracking poll of
in an attempt to reflect the views
NBC News/ Wall Street Journal
903 likely voters placed Mr. Clin-
The New York Times/
of the 50 percent of adults who ac-
Oct. 28
ton's lead at nine points. Tracking
CBS News Poll Qct. 20-23
tually turn out on election day rath-
polls interview new samples each
38
35
er than the 75 percent who say they
day and report combined results
43
are registered.
40
two or more days at a time.
The Harris Poll uses three ques-
15
A ten point advantage for Mr.
tions to identify likely voters. In a
Clinton was measured in a Wash-
Harris Poll conducted last week,
Washington Post Poll
ington Post Poll of 1,837 likely vot-
Gallup for Newsweek
views of likely voters did not sub-
ers.
Oct. 23-27
Oct. 22-23
stantially differ from those of all
The margins of sampling error
34
30
registered voters.
savug чтой
range from three percentage
The Gallup Organization uses
44
42
points on the larger samples to
eight questions. In a CNN/USA To-
19
22
plus or minus five percentage
day poll conducted by Gallup and
points on the smaller samples.
"All the News
That's Fit to Print"
Th Ball Tinas
NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
Perot, Thrown for Loss,
May Alter Game Plan
O.K. Here's the deal:
age of instant communication, Mr.
Ross Perot is talking to a crowd of
Martini reached for his cellular
partisans in Denver about a televi-
phone and rang up his wife, Vanessa.
sion station that has declined to pre-
He was describing the scene to her
empt "Monday Night Football" for
when Mr. Bush happened to looked
one of his 30-minute paid political
his way, whereupon Mr. Martini prof-
programs.
fered the phone, suggesting there
"Make 'em show it! Make 'em
might be a vote at the other end. The
show it!" the partisans chant.
President, sensing a chance to close
Mr. Perot comes up with a solution.
the margin a bit more on Bill Clinton,
"We'll get the message through if I
took the gamble.
have to buy a station here," he prom-
It paid off.
ises. "Don't worry about it."
Mrs. Martini said she was a Bush
supporter "because the last time we
had a Democrat as President, I lost
Mr. Dangerfield,
my business."
Meet Mr. Quayle
Got the Time,
Rodney Dangerfield, you're not
Mr. President?
alone.
In the for-what-it's-worth depart-
The other day when Vice President
ment.
Dan Quayle walked, unannounced,
When President Bush stole a look
into the Aztec Restaurant in Aztec,
or two at his wristwatch during the
N.M., he didn't get no respect either.
debates, the pundits never could fig-
Collette Malouff, a waitress, figured
ure out whether he was bored or
him to be just another faceless
checking to see if time was running
hungry customer and gave him an
out on the debate or the Bush cam-
offhand "just fine" when he asked-
paign or whatever. So during a cam-
how her day was going. Then she
paign appearance in Columbus, Ohio,
resumed adding up another custom-
on Wednesday, the President felt
er's check.
moved to explain, or at least com-
A few days earlier, the guard at the
ment and reveal.
door of the New York Stock Ex-
"I looked at my watch during the
change had a similar reaction when
debate and I caught all kinds of hell
the Vice President walked in, again
from the media,' he said: "But I'm
unannounced.
going to look at it again - It's a
"I'll have to check," he replied
Timex and it's now 16 to the hour. 1
when Mr. Quayle asked if he could
mean, come on.
visit a bit.
Permission granted.
Even the Faithful
Footsteps Heard
Grow Weary
Across the Seas
Speaking of time
Back in the early days of the 1992
campaign, Governor Clinton, who
On Wednesday, when Democratic
hails from the town where President
women in 60 American cities spread
Bush's watch was made, would often
from New York to San Francisco
arrive two and three hours late for
marched to highlight issues of inter-
rallies. Yet the faithful always stuck
est to women and drum up support
around patiently, sometimes well af-
for the Clinton/Gore ticket, they were
ter midnight.
not alone. To the pleasant surprise of
The Governor still arrives late. But
the organizers of the marches, Demo-
the patience of the faithful is wearing
cratic women living abroad learned
thin.
of the marches and organized their
Mr. Clinton was two hours tardy for
own - in seven cities, spread from
an evening rally this week in Wilson,
London to Tokyo.
N.C., and no sooner had he finally
mounted the platform and started his
Finding a Voter
pitch than some supporters began
Who Will Listen
heading for the exits. They were still
clutching Clinton/Gore signs but they
were leaving nonetheless.
AJack Martini immediately recog-
nized the customer who walked into
"It's late." replied one man. "I've
The Market delicatessen in Denver
seen him."
the other day. It was the Pre- of
the United States, and, this being the
B. DRUMMOND AYRES Jr.
"All the News
That's Fit to Print"
The New York Tine
NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
Campaign Stalled,
Perot Team Tries to Fix It, Fast
part of his half-hour ad.
Obviously concerned about their can-
By STEVEN A. HOLMES
didate's stall, Mr. Mulford and Sharon
Special to The New York Times
Holman, the campaign's press secre-
DALLAS, Oct. 29 - Acknowledging
tary, told reporters today that they
would no longer answer questions
that the rise of Ross Perot in the polls
about Mr. Perot's assertions that Re-
has stalled, his aides tried today to
defuse two issues that they fear have
publican operatives had planned to
conduct a smear campaign against his
slowed his momentum: the charge that
he is trying to buy the election, and h:s
daughter or about his involvement in
unsubstantiated assertions that 1"
getting the FBI to conduct an under-
Bush campaign planned to disrupt rus
cover sting operation on Jim Oberwet-
daughter's wedding and to wiretap his
ter, the chairman of the Bush cam-
business telephones.
paign in Texas.
The Perot campaign has developed
Mr. Perot apparently believed that
different strategies for dealing with the
Mr. Oberwetter might have been part
the two issues. Aides are confronting
of a conspiracy to wiretap some tele-
the first with claims that President
phones at his North Dallas business
Bush and Gov. Bill Clinton have actual-
office after Mr. Perot dropped out of
ly outspent Mr. Perot. They are con-
the race last summer. The FBI investi-
fronting the second with silence.
gation has not turned up any evidence
"I think the realization was made
of Mr. Oberwetter's involvement in a
yesterday or the day before that the
such a conspiracy.
attention on the nonissues, the charac-
The stories about campaigns de-
ter assassination, was really playing
signed to embarass members of Mr.
into the hands of the other two candi-
Perot's family and the cloak-and-dag-
dates," Clayton Mulford, the Perot
ger suspicions regarding Mr. Oberwet-
campaign's general. counsel, said to-
ter were fueled by Mr. Perot's inter-
day. "We need to get back to our mes-
view on "60 Minutes' on Sunday,"
sage."
where he first made them, and in a
Sliding In Polls
surprise appearance at a press confer-
ence on Monday.
At a press briefing Mr. Mulford
agreed with a reporter's suggestion
Meanwhile, seven former Perot voi-
that public opinion polls show that the
unteers held a news conference in,
air seems to be leaking out of Mr.
Washington today to accuse the Perol
Perot's campaign, and he attributed it
to critical stories about the independ-
ent that were "planted" by his oppo-
nents. Mr. Mulford produced no evi-
dence to support that assertion.
campaign of having ordered illegal
his own money, on his campaign
A tracking poll conducted by Gallup
for USA Today and CNN that will be
credit checks on them and of having
through Wednesday that is only about a'
released Friday indicates that 16 per
forced them out of the campaign. They
third of what the Republicans and
also told stories of high-handed tactics
Democratic campaigns have either re.
cent of those surveyed backed Mr. Pe-
ceived in contributions or spent.
rot. Last week a similar tracking poll
like being pressured to sign "loyalty
oaths."
gave Mr. Perot the support of 20 per
According to Mr. Mulford, the Presi-
cent of those surveyed. Similarly, a
Mr. Perot has admitted investigating
dent and Mr. Clinton have each re-
tracking poll by ABC News today
some of his volunteers, but only be-
ceived more than $167 million in their
showed Mr. Perot at 16 per cent, a five-
cause he suspected wrongdoing. The
contributions for their campaigns. Mr.
participants provided documents
point drop from a similar poll released
Mulford's figures include the amount
showing they had been investigated but
on Monday that had the Texan at 21 per
had no proof that Mr. Perot was direct-
the two men received during the pri-
cent.
ly involved.
maries, the amount the Perot cam-
A tracking poll is a survey in which
"If someone has this tendency to
paign estimates the two parties spent
fresh samples of voters are inter-
during their conventions, Federal
viewed daily and the combined results
investigate in a secret way," said Cliff
funds for the general election cam-
Erneback, a former Perot coordinator
of two or three days of interviews are
in Ohio, "it conjures up the image of
paign, and money contributed by the
released. Mr. Perot does not conduct
the secret police in communist Rus-
Democratic and Republican parties to
his own polling, so his rise or fall can
support their tickets.
sia."
only be gauged by public polls conduct-
It also includes "soft money" collect-
ed by news organizations.
All or Nothing
ed by the state parties and used to help
Fewer 'Infomercial' Viewers
Mr. Perot also continued his running
elect the party's entire slate of candi-
Public opinion surveys are not the
feud with the news media today. The
dates, including the President.
only indicators that the Perot boomlet
Texas was to be interviewed
"The point here that we're making is
may have peaked. Figures compiled by
today on "Prime Time Live" and on
that it's inaccurate to present the situa-
Nielsen Media Research News indicate
Friday on "20/20". Since both shows
tion that Perot is spending more money
that the number of people tuning into
are broadcast on ABC, the network's
than anybody eise," Mr. Mulford said.
Mr. Perot's 30-minute and 60-minute
executives decided they might be giv-
"In fact, we are spending one-third of
"infomercial" ads has dropped sharp-
ing Mr. Perot too much exposure.
what the other candidates are."
ly. About 16.5 million viewers watched
When they asked which show he would
Scott Moxley, a spokesman for the
his first one on Oct. 6. Since then none
prefer to appear on, Mr. Perot told
Federal Election Commission took is-
of the other half-hour programs have
them that if he could not appear on
sue with some of the Perot campaign's
come close to attracting that many
both. he would appear on neither.
figures. saying Mr. Bush and the Re-
viewers. On Monday, 12 million view-
Mr. Mulford passed out printed ma-
publicans have received or spent about
ers - a respectable showing, but a 25
terials indicating that while Mr. Pero:
$135.4 million and Mr. Clinton and the
per cent decrease - watched at least
has expended $59.9 million. of
Democrats $129.3 million.
"All the News
That's Fit to Print"
The New York Times
NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
For the Most Negative Ads,
Turn On the Nearest Radio
By ELIZABETH KOLBERT
It's the Great Invisible Attack cam-
The Clinton campaign has responded
paign.
with an ad that says: "George Bush is
Heading into the final days of the
at it again. Because he can't run on his
Presidential race, the Bush campaign
own record, Bush is resorting to nega-
is running a series of highly critical,
tive attacks against Bill Clinton."
carefully aimed radio advertisements
designed to undermine Gov. Bill Clin-
Mr. Perot's radio ads do not mention
ton's support in key states. Over the
either Mr. Bush or Mr. Clinton by
weekend, when it will be almost impos-
name. Instead they offer the message
sible for the Clinton campaign to re-
Great Leap In Logic
of a pox on both your houses.
spond, the Bush campaign is planning
Mr. Clinton has not proposed a car-
"Now here's an extreme case that
to put more attack ads on the radio.
bon tax, and aides to the Governor call
Far cheaper than television, radio
just shows you how goofy things are in
the ads grossly misleading. But the
advertising is also widely regarded as
Washington," Mr. Perot says in one of
Bush campaign says the commercials
less effective. But radio, which re-
his ads. "In order to find a Christmas
are justified because Mr. Clinton's run-
ceives far less press scrutiny than tele-
tree, the White House decided it was
ning mate, Senator AI Gore, advocates
vision, is often the medium that candi-
necessary to send two people all the
dates use to deliver their most scathing
such a tax in his best-selling book,
way to Oregon to look at the tree at
"Earth in the Balance." Also, they
- and sometimes misleading - cri-
taxpayers' expense. They are in the
note, the Governor himself has said
tiques.
piggy bank that you and I created with
that the nation's carbon dioxide emis-
As the campaign moves toward the
our taxpayer money. We need to get
close, all three leading candidates -
sions should be reduced, something,
'em out."
Mr. Clinton, President Bush and Ross
Bush aides insist in a leap of logic, that
can be achieved only with a carbon tax.
Perot - are planning heavy advertis-
New Bush Ads Planned
ing blitzes over the weekend on both
"Governor Clinton has very specifi-
cally said he'll entertain the idea," said
Yesterday, aides to the President
radio and television.
On television, both the Clinton and
Bill Lacy, a senior political adviser to
would not say what new radio ads were
the Bush campaign.
planned for the weekend. But when a
the Bush campaigns are expected to
Acting on the belief that any attack
reporter asked whether such ads could
continue broadcasting a mixture of
that goes unanswered is taken by vot-
be expected, Sig Rogich, who is coordi-
positive and negative messages. But on
ers to be true, the Clinton campaign
nating the President's media cam-
radio the message is likely to be unre-
has tried to reply to each of the Bush
paign, said simply, "Yup." And be-
mittingly downbeat.
campaign's radio commercials within
cause it is so difficult to respond to new
24 hours. In their response ads, the
ads over a weekend, when station of-
'Hard-Hitting Attacks'
Clinton campaign has tried to inoculate
fices are closed, the Clinton campaign
"Radio is a great medium for deliv-
the Governor against future attacks as
is especially concerned about any last-
ering hard-hitting attacks," said Dar-
well by planting doubts about the Pres-
minute attacks.
rell West, a professor of political sci-
ident's credibility.
"Local radio is where the vilification
ence at Brown University who studies
"It's the same old story: George
and fear-mongering takes place," one
campaign advertising. "It's a risk-free
Bush will say anything to get elected,"
adviser to Mr. Clinton said. The Clinton
type of advertising. You can be incredi-
says a Clinton radio commercial that,
campaign has prepared several new
bly obnoxious without being blamed for
with minor adjustments, is running in
radio ads, which aides to the Governor
it"
several states. "He said so himself."
say they will broadcast, depending on
Many of the television ads that have
The commercial ends: "So the next
what the Bush campaign has on radio.
been broadcast during the Presidential
time you hear a George Bush ad, ask
campaign have been based on informa-
yourself, isn't it time for a President
To close its advertising campaign,
tion that could, at best, be called ques-
who will fight for Americans' jobs?'
the Clinton team is planning to air at
tionable. But it is on the radio that the
The most recent Bush radio ad,
least two new television commercials
truth has been treated the most casual-
which is running in New Jersey as well
before Election Day. One is expected to
ly.
as in several other states, purports to
continue the campaign's attacks on the
Several of the Bush campaign's ra-
"examine the facts" about Governor
President's economic record, while the
dio commercials are variations on a
Clinton's record on child welfare and
other is supposed to be more positive,
single theme - that Mr. Clinton will
on crime.
featuring either scenes from Clinton
impose a tax on energy, a "carbon tax"
"If he can't care for children and
campaign bus trips or Mr. Clinton
that will drive up utility bills and cost
keep the public safety in his own
making a direct appeal to voters.
jobs.
state,' the ad asks, "how can he expect
"He's said he's for change, but look
a promotion?"
Yesterday the Clinton campaign be-
at the change he's really talking
gan broadcasting a new television ad in
about," says an ad running in states
Michigan and Ohio that describes how
Japanese mini-vans that were labeled
Illinois. "An independent analysis says
cars avoided import duties:
that Clinton-Gore radical environmen-
For its part, the Bush campaign has
tal taxes will drive up our annual utility
begun broadcasting two new television
bills over $350."
ads, one that features spooky black and
white landscapes and attacks Mr. Clin-
ton's record in Arkansas and another
that touts Mr. Bush's qualifications for
the nation's highest office.
"All the News
That's Fit to Print"
The New York Times
NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
Bush to Break
With Tradition
Breaking with tradition,
President Bush has decided not
to broadcast an election eve
appeal on any of the three ma-
jor networks.
Gov. Bill Clinton and Ross
Perot, in contrast, will uphold
tradition. They will broadcast
election eve appeals on all
three networks.
Mr. Clinton has bought a
half-hour - though not the
same half-hour - on NBC, ABC
and CBS, spending about $2
million. Mr. Perot has pur-
chased an hour on NBC and at
a different time a half-hour
each on CBS and ABC, for al-
most $3 million.
Representatives of all three
networks said that equal time
had been offered to the Presi-
dent, but that he had declined
it.
Tony Mitchell, a spokesman
for the Bush campaign, said the
President was forgoing the tra-
ditional election eve special be-
cause "we believe the advertis-
ing that we're doing is what we
need at this point." But some
political analysts said they be-
lieved the reason for the
change is that the Bush cam-
paign is low on money.
"All the News
That's Fit to Print"
The New York Times
NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
THE AD CAMPAIGN
Bush: TV Spot Harshly Denounces Clinton's Record
The Bush campaign began broadcasting this 30-second commercial Wednesday in unidentified markets
around the country.
ON THE SCREEN Opens with
Arkansas doubled government
gloomy black and white images
spending, most of that growth
of a rainy day, a deserted road,
came from inflation. The Clinton
weeds rustling in the wind. Key
campaign has also cited figures
phrases from the narration, and
from the National Governors'
sources for the statistics, are
Risk
Association showing that all but
superimposed over similarly
six states have doubled general
depressing images. Closes with
spending since Mr. Clinton took
a tree and a buzzard in the
office.
desert and these words
"America Can't Take That Risk."
SCORECARD This ad takes facts
Bill Clinton wants to do for
out of context to paint Mr. Clinton
PRODUCER The November
America what he's done for
as a governor who brought only
Company.
Arkansas. America can't take that
misery to Arkansas. In reality, Mr.
TELEVISION SCRIPT Announcer:
risk."
Clinton has been considered a
"In his 12 years as Governor. Bill
ACCURACY This ad is a case
better than average governor of
Clinton has doubled his state's
study in how accusations can be
a small, poor state. It tries to
debt. Doubled government
made and how facts can be
scare viewers into thinking that a
spending and signed the largest
used to bolster them or tear them
Clinton administration would
tax increase in his state's history.
Yet his state remains the 45th
down. The Bush campaign
bring only gloom and doom to
worst in which to work. The 45th
backs its accusations with
the whole country. In 30 seconds,
statistics and cites its sources on
'the ad tries to hit Mr. Clinton on
worst for children. It has the
the screen. The Clinton
the hot-button issues of the
worst environmental policy.
campaign refutes every
environment, children, crime and
"And the F.B.I. says Arkansas
accusation with its own statistics.
taxes-all_issues that Mr. Bush
had America's biggest increase
has been attacked on.
in rate of serious crime. And now
For example, while it is true that
RICHARD L. BERKE
THE AD CAMPAIGN
Clinton: Issuing a Quick Response
Less than a day after the Bush campaign began broadcasting its commercial attacking Arkansas, the
Clinton campaign produced this 30-second response, for broadcast in select markets beginning
yesterday.
ON THE SCREEN Phrases appear
build up his record and makes
that underscore the narration, like
assertions out of context. The
"
"Bush ads are misleading and
Bush] is lying
Clinton ad says Arkansas leads
wrong." and "Arkansas leads the
about Bill Clinton's
the nation in job growth, but the
nation in job growth." Beneath
record
Bush campaign cites figures
the words, in smaller type,
showing that has been true for
appear sources for the phrases.
Rushingson Prot
Jush Mann. 8:26.92
only the last three months. While
like CBS, Bureau of Labor
Mr. Clinton balanced 12 budgets,
Statistics. Interspersed with the
he was required to by state law.
words are photographs of Gov.
Bill Clinton at work in the
"And he's balanced 12 budgets.
The ad uses many citations to
Governor's office.
They reduced infant mortality,
lend it credibility but sometimes
PRODUCER Clinton/Gore Creative
lave highest
goes overboard. Il the
Team.
graduation rate in the region.
institution of The Washington
And in the past year, Arkansas's
Post that said Mr. Bush was lying,
TELEVISION SCRIPT Announcer:
crime rate went down.
but Judy Mann, a local
"CBS, CNN and newspapers
columnist
across the country call George
"No wonder The Washington Post
Bush's ads misleading and
says George Bush is lying about
SCORECARD This ad inundates
wrong. The fact is, under Bill
Bill Clinton's record, and why The
viewers with documentation to try
Clinton's leadership Arkansas
Oregonian concluded. 'Frankly,
to lessen the impact of one of the
leads the nation in job growth,
we no longer trust George Bush.'
Bush campaigns harshest
has the second-lowest tax
attacks. The ad also tries to
ACCURACY While the Bush ad
burden and the lowest
portray Mr. Clinton a successful
Government spending in the
makers selectively used figures
Governor and the President as a
to attack Mr. Clinton's record, this
country.
man who cannot be trusted.
ad selectively uses figures to
RICHARD L. BERKE
"All the News
That's Fit to Print"
The New York Time
NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
Invaders on Washington's Horizon,
Republicans Grab Their Résumés
By MICHAEL WINES
Specialto The New York Times
WASHINGTON, Oct. 29 - One of
President Bush's top appointees, a
man known more for competence than
political zeal, recently got a telephone
call dangling the prospect of new em-
ployment in January. Nothing odd
about that; with Mr. Bush's re-election
uncertain, many Republicans are fur-
tively fielding job offers.
But this call stood out for its source:
Eight blocks from the White House,
Bill Clinton's campaign staff. Already
the traffic at Star Personnel Inc. does
it was plucking at the carcass of the
little to discourage that conclusion.
Bush regime more than a month before
"I'm handling a résumé for an assist-
Election Day.
ant secretary right now," said Karen
"They were probably testing my loy-
Hillian, the staffing manager there.
alty," the Bush official said, sounding
The résumé-burnishing trade was slow
both bitter and philosophic. "We did the
through the Presidential debates, she
same thing to Carter's people in '80."
said, then began to take off this week as
Mr. Bush himself might call Wash-
mid-level Administration officials seri-
ington Tension City these days. Not
ously began pondering the prospect of
since Ronald Reagan pried the White
unemployment.
House away from Jimmy Carter a
"The political appointees - from
dozen years ago have the final days of
Cabinet members on down - have
a Presidential election taken on such a
very, very discreetly expressed inter-
Crockett-at-the-Alamo urgency.
est in new jobs," said Eric Vautour, a
Yes, polls show the race has tight-
former personnel official in the Nixon
ened in the last few days, but that has
Administration who now directs Rus-
not been enough to dispel the gloom
sell Reynolds Associates, an executive-
that has been settling in for months.
search concern in Washington. "They
Republicans despair at finding their
are stating a preference if, indeed,
shining city on a hill - seat of the cold
some client has an interest in their
war triumph, gilded monument to a
abilities. And they're asking that no
decade of prosperity - besieged by
meetings take place, and no paper be
Mongols camped at the gates and hun-
forwarded, till after the election."
grily awaiting capitulation. Democrats
Many are in for a discreet shock. The
are savoring the giddiness of revolu-
world outside the White House is not
tionaries pulling down the statues in
the one they left four, eight, even 12
the town square.
years ago for the power and prestige of
high public service. Since 1989, when
Politics is not geometry, of course.
Congress enacted a carrot-and-stick
Whatever Mr. Clinton's advisers hope
package of Federal pay increases and
in their hearts, his victory on Tuesday
strict new ethics laws, Government
is so far but a statistical assumption,
salaries have catapulted past those in
hedged by margins of error and the
the private sector; six-figure bureau-
volatility of an electorate that has al-
cratic jobs are now common. "A num-
ready exceeded its flash point more
ber of people will have to take cuts in
than once.
pay to get a job," Mr. Vautour said.
But a last-reel sense of finality per-
When jobs exist, that is. Once, out-of-
vades much of official Washington any-
office Republicans could land safely in
way, like a movie in which the outcome
Congress; this time, Republicans fear
seems foreordained but the suspense
still tingles.
a Democratic landslide in legislative
Rumors, some based in fact, take
races that will cut the number of Capi-
flight almost hourly. A top Cabinet
tol Hill jobs available to departing Ad-
member is plotting his senatorial cam-
ministration officials. Nor does the pri-
paign. (True.) The Administration is
vate sector offer much hope.
renting space for Mr. Clinton's White
"I probably have more talented ex-
House transition team. (True, but that
ecutives on file than I've ever had in
happens in every election.) Washington
the 24 years I've been in the executive-
fashion salons are dumping their in-
search business," said Barbara Lau-
ventories of Nancy Reagan-red and
mann, managing partner of Laumann
Barbara Bush-blue inaugural gowns
and Associates, another Washington
for flashier Democratic fare. (False,
head-hunting concern. "It's a terrible
says Lashea Green, salon buyer for
market to be unemployed."
Clare Dratch Inc., one trend-setting
shop. She will head to Manhattan, to
the Garment District, the morning af-
ter Election Day, but the gowns she
buys have no ideological stripe, she
says.)
Booming Business
In Résume Polishing
"Be the first in the Democratic Par-
ty to have a copy of the new ELEC-
TRONIC PLUM BOOK," screams a
direct-mail flier that landed this week
on desks around town. The Plum Book
is the Federal version of the Social
Register - a listing of the capital's
most powerful jobs and, until now, the
Republicans who occupy them. The
new edition, the flyer confidently
states, includes "over 8,600 Federal
policy and supporting positions which
will become available under the new
President.'
"All the News
That's Fit to Print"
The New York Times
NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
A Few Democrats
While Democrats
Have Been There
Knock on Wood
Mr. Eizenstat recalls what it felt like
Democrats want desperately to be-
in 1980.
lieve all this, but they will not let them-
"I don't think people who aren't part
selves.
of an administration can understand
"I was in a meeting yesterday of the
National Jewish Democratic Council
it," be said. "It's not just a job you're
losing. It's a sense of being part of a
where people were explicitly admon-
broader enterprise. You come into the
ished, whenever they said, 'When Clin-
job to get certain things done for the
ton is elected,' to instead say, 'If Clin-
country, and you have a sick sense
ton IS elected,' said Stuart Eizenstat,
a Washington lawyer, former domestic
you're not going to be able to complete
your mission and, in fact, people are
policy adviser to President Carter and
member of the Democratic establish-
coming in with an entirely different
agenda that you abhor.
ment-in-exile. "They were acting out of
'You can't understand why the coun-
fear that somehow, someone was
try can't understand what you've done
putting a hex on a party that's been
for the last four years, and why they'
sudden it's like people are tired of us, of
star-crossed for so long.'
not rewarding you instead of punishing
Republicans, of conservatism. It's cool
Republicans know how close the
you."
to be a Democrat again. The excite-
precipice is. In mixed company, Ad-
Asked if he feels sympathy for Mr.
ment is with them now.
ministration officials maintain a deter-
Bush and his team, Mr. Eizenstat
"The good thing is, it takes them a
mined cheeriness. "I don't have time to
quickly responds: "Sure. For about one
long time to get down to replacing
think about the future," a senior White
second."
people at my level. 1 certainly won't be
House aide snapped. "I'm too busy
Later he called back to say that his
fired on Jan. 21. I figure more like late
getting this guy re-elected."
response had been unnecessarily
March, maybe even April. And I will
Others fend off gloom with dollops of
harsh. "I recognize how difficult it is to
insist on being fired; I need the unem-
black humor. "Basically, things are
face an impending loss when you're in
ployment.money."
pretty steady," another White House
the White House," he said, "but my
He marveled at the novelty of it. "I
aide said dryly of the progress of Mr.
sympathy tends to evaporate when I
am actually going to get a pink slip," he
Bush's campaign. "Sixty percent of the
recognize how long they've been in
said. "It will actually be pink. I think
people didn't want to re-elect him nine
I'll frame it."
months ago, and 60 percent don't want
power and the need for change."
to re-elect him today."
Among the true believers, pessi-
He is 36 years old, an East Coaster,
mism remains a minority view. But
excellent dresser. He is a lawyer, al-
longtime election-watchers have
though, in the Washington way of
charted a bevy of leading indicators of
things, he has never practiced law.
political panic that do not bode well for
Before entering this Government he
the White House. Mid-level political
lobbied for various foreign ones.
appointees are postponing vacations,
He is one of about 1,700 workers with
knowing they may well have plenty of
the greatest stake in Mr. Bush's future.
free time after Jan. 20, 1992, and that
They are political appointees -
"schedule C" employees, in bureaucra-
In Highest Places
the Government will pay them for time
off that is not used. "There are a lot of
tese - who got their jobs because they
There's Still Hope
people saving it up," one Administra-
are loyal Republicans, and who will
tion official said.
lose them if Mr. Clinton takes over.
Like most of his colleagues, he is a
But inside the besieged Bush camp,
More senior Bush aides, with
grander ambitions, are discreetly ask-
bright, white, male graduate of a good
they are still shoring up the ramparts.
school, one of those now in their 30's -
Most pundits say Mr. Clinton has
ing reporters how much their book
proposals might command in the pub-
the anointed managers of the Reagan
already locked up more than the 270
lishing market, and which literary
Revolution, and presumably the future
electoral votes he needs to win on Tues-
agents are best retained. (One top
Republican aristocracy.
day. But in a handful of polls, Mr.
He works in a respectable, mid-level
Clinton's insurmountable lead has
agent says the memoirs of the White
House chief of staff, James A. Baker
Cabinet office. The $70,000-a-year sala-
seemingly shriveled - to eight, then
3d, would be welcomed, but that the
ry is not what he had enjoyed as a
five, then two percentage points.
public appetite for many more Bush
lobbyist but enough to pay the mort-
Mr. Bush, a soporific campaigner all
books in a Clinton Presidency would be
gage on his tony Georgetown town,
house (hot tub on the patio, gourmet
year, is suddenly his old spontaneous,
at best limited. "The talk is, is there.
kitchen, a tiny wood-burning fireplace
slightly goofy, self, spitting fire on the
anyone else that's interesting now?"
in the living room). He still buys suits
stump. He calls Senator Gore "Ozone
she said.)
at Hugo Boss; still makes the pay-
Man,' and the name sticks. He rails at
Some political and policy advisers
the northern spotted owl - "a feath-
are beginning to resemble football fans
ments on his hunter-green Miata; he
has even begun a wine collection.
ery, fine-looking little bird," he says,
who bolt the stadium when their team
"but I'm also worried about those
is hopelessly down, cursing the quar-
The job has been a surprise. Bureau-
30,000 families that might be thrown
terback and telling all within earshot
crats actually work hard and wield
out of work." His audience laughs, then
what/they would have done differently.
great power. Amazingly, he found, he is
cheers.
Last month, for example, Washingto-
a man of substance, flying around the
A senior official who often flies with
nians clucked knowingly when, in a
world to tell foreigners in equally ex-
Mr. Bush aboard Air Force One tele-
Washington Post article, the Presi-
pensive suits what the United States of
phones a friend.
dent's budget director and fiscal strat-
America wants of them. Ambassadors
"You may think I'm crazy," he said,
egist, Richard G. Darman, publicly
treat him with respect. Reporters call
"but I think we can win this thing."
blamed his boss's plight on Treasury
him looking for disclosures, and he
Secretary
with
ic advice and on the political "idiocy"
In late September, sipping a Fresco-
of Mr. Bush himself.
baldi Chianti Reserve in his kitchen, he
Lately, other Bush aides prefer to
said calmly that he assumed this was
sock it to the Bush-Quayle chairman,
all going to go away. He spoke of the
Robert M. Teeter. who they contend
outlook:
ran a BarcaLounger campaign when
"I don't see any way Bush can win at
circumstances clamored for a Land
this point. I am making all my plans on
Rover. They refer to "the Teeter prin-
the assumption of a Clinton landslide.
ciple," a snide allusion to the Peter
It isn't just the economy or that people
principle, that every talented worker
are mad at Bush. It's bigger. All of a
gets promoted, sooner or later, to a job
beyond his or her abilities.
"All the News
That's Fit to Print"
Th New York Time
NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
Time Bombs on the Supreme Court
Of all the time bombs that Presidents leave
Bork nomination. He argued that Mr. Bork threat-
behind, none are more potentially explosive than
ened to "turn the clock back" to old battles over
their appointments to the Supreme Court. Consider-
race and personal liberty that had frustrated the
ing the age of the present justices, the President
South's progress.
elected next Tuesday is likely to make several
The stakes are even higher for the Court itself.
appointments, and thus determine the character of
Justices Sandra Day O'Connor and Anthony Ken-
the Court for a generation.
nedy, Reagan appointees, and David Souter, a Bush
The candidates haven't much mentioned their
appointee, have held to the Roe decision, lest their
views of the Court, but these are a crucial standard
Court be seen as the White House's political captive.
for thoughtful voters. If re-elected, George Bush
In similar spirit they held firm against state-spon-
says he would try to finish packing the Court
sored prayer in public schools.
against Roe V. Wade, the decision validating abor-
Justices O'Connor and Kennedy have also held
tion rights, which four members say they want to
the line, at least temporarily, against further judi-
strike down. Bill Clinton, by finding candidates he
cial rewriting of the Federal habeas corpus law
thinks will support a woman's choice, would halt
protecting state prisoñ inmates. Justice O'Connor
that drive and turn it back.
felt the need to remind Justice Thomas that the
No less important is a President's power to
Court's job (and, according to President Bush, his
recast the trial and appellate courts. The Reagan
passion) is to interpret the statute Congress wrote,
and Bush appointees are overwhelmingly conserva-
not to make by judicial means the changes some
tives - and distressingly underrepresentative of
members of Congress had failed to enact.
minority and women lawyers.
Something wonderful is going on here. These
The crusade to remake the Court stalled in 1987
three conservative lawyers, appointed by Presi-
when the Senate rejected the nomination of Robert
dents with a political agenda for transforming the
Bork. Since then, the Senate's Democratic majority
Court, rally to defend its reputation, and by exten-
has forced the White House to avoid nominees who
sion their own.
openly share his outspoken opposition to Roe - or,
The Bush White House shows no compunction
in the case of Justice Clarence Thomas, to prompt
about pursuing a coarse political agenda, which is
candidates to disguise their views long enough to
all the more reason to prize and praise the institu-
get confirmed. If re-elected, President Bush might
tional restraint and respect of Justices O'Connor,
well overcome the Senate's resistance.
Kennedy and Souter - and all the more reason to
As Governor of Arkansas, Bill Clinton joined
choose a President who respects the judicial branch
with other New South politicians who opposed the
enough to maintain its quality and independence.
"All the News
That's Fit to Print"
The New Ymb Times
NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
Alan S. Weiner for The New York Times
A Federal district judge has issued an order direct-
cal Company pesticide plant, above, in Jacksonville,
ing the state of Arkansas to halt incineration tempo-
Ark. The plant is one of the most contaminated
rarily after Nov. 10 at the abandoned Vertac Chemi-
toxic waste sites in the country.
Judge to Oversee Burning in Arkansas
By KEITH SCHNEIDER
On Tuesday the state announced that
atmosphere around the plant were be-
Special to The New York Times
it had given final approval to a plan to
low safety limits set by the evironmen-
WASHINGTON, Oct. 29 - A Federal
burn nearly two million pounds of
tal agency, the rest of the chemical
district judge in Arkansas today as-
wastes from the manufacture of the
wastes would be burned over the next
sumed control of the largest project
Vietnam/era defoliant Agent Orange,
two or three months.
ever undertaken in the United States to
which was contaminated with traces of
incinerate chemical wastes contami-
dioxin. Dioxin, a byproduct of heating
Temporary Halt Ordered
nated with dioxin.
chlorine-based compounds, is regarded
But Judge Reasoner, responding to a
as dangerous, though precisely how
The judge's order, responding to a
lawsuit brought by Gregory Ferguson,
dangerous is a matter of dispute
lawsuit brought by Arkansas commu-
a lawyer in Little Rock, and Mick
among scientists.
nity groups and a Washington-based
Harrrison of the Washington-based
public interest law group, came as the
The incineration project in Jackson-
Government Accountability Project,
incineration of the chemical wastes
ville is being closely watched by envi-
issued an order directing the state to
began today at the abandoned Vertac
ronmental groups, state officials and
temporarily halt the incineration after
Chemical Company pesticide plant in
industry leaders across the country
Nov. 10 to give opponents time to also
Jacksonville, Ark., a city of 29,000 peo-
because cleanups of dozens of other
evaluate the test results.
ple 15 miles northeast of Little Rock.
toxic waste sites contaminated with
The judge said he would hold a new
dioxin could be accelerated or delayed,
hearing before deciding whether to al-
based on results from Vertac.
low the project to resume. He did not
Closely Watched Project
set a date for the hearing today.
In his ruling today the judge, Stephen
The old plant. which manufactured
Kenneth L. Smith, Governor Clin-
M. Reasoner. allowed the state to pro-
insecticides and defoliants from 1948
tonts chief environmental advisor, haid
ceed with its original plan that calls for
until it was closed in 1986, is one of the
the order did not alter the state's plan-
continuing the incineration of the
most contaminated toxic waste sites in
"We're perfectly comfortable with the
dioxin-contaminated wastes through
the country, according to the Federal
ruling," he added.
Saturday. Samples will then be collect-
Environmental Protection Agency.
ed from air-monitoring stations around
Opponents said Judge Reasoner's or-
Since 1979, when Federal and state
the plant and sent to a laboratory for
der provided most of the protections
investigators found dioxin in the soil
analysis.
they had sought. Mick Harrison, a law-
and water in Jacksonville, Vertac's
yer with the Government Accountabil-
toxic wastes and what to do about them
Burning of the dioxin wastes is to
ity Project. said state officials "are
have been a source of considerable
resume on Nov. 9-10 for more environ-
going to be allowed to do just enough
strife in the community and have domi-
mental tests. The state plan called for
testing to prove to the judge that it's
nated the attention of Gov. Bill Clinton
evaluating all the results: f officials
too dangerous and that the project
and his environmental advisers.
determined that levels of dioxin in the
should be permanently shut down.'
"All the News
That's Fit to Print"
The New York Time
NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
Bush's Remarks Hit Close to Home
By RONALD SMOTHERS
like he thinks we all left fresh, bare-
politician for attacking the state and
Special to The New York Times
foot footprints out in the parking lot."
the character of the people here."
SHIRLEY, Ark.,
The President's reference to the
The schools in Shirley sit atop a hill
Oct. 29 Linda
state as "the lowest of low" as he re-
that looks down on the valley where
Burgess at the
the middle fork of the Little Red Riv-
counted its meager standing in areas
Hair Fashion
like children's health, teachers' pay,
er flows. The river marked the path
Beauty Shop said
of the old Missouri and North Arkan-
education spending, working condi-
she didn't "give a rip because its just
tions and income, reverberated
sas Rail Road that ran between Jop-
politics." Watson I. Smith, a 79-year-
lin and West Helena on the Arkansas
throughout Arkansas, making many
old retired teacher, said it struck him
people feel as if they had been cast
side of the Mississippi Delta. Shirley
as a "tad too mean-spirited."
was founded in 1907 as a station along
And Everett Henderson, a farmer
that line carrying timber between the
who warmed himself with his back to
two cities. It is named for the first
the pot-bellied stove in Privitt's Hard-
Where 'hillbilly
stationmaster's daughter.
ware store, said it reminded him of
The 46-year-old Mr. Clark remem-
the "hillbilly put-downs" he and other
put-downs' aren't
bers the old clapboard schoolhouse
Arkansans used to hear in the Army.
that was too coldin winter and swel-
A little more than a week after
funny.
tering in spring. The building, due to
President Bush spotlighted Arkan-
be renovated, sits in stark relief to the
sas's shortcomings in a Presidential
sprawling one-story brick buildings
debate and referred to the state as
of the high school and elementary
adrift from the rest of the nation. It
the "lowest of the low," feelings still
school. All that came in the last 10'
sent Republican candidates scram-
run strong among many in this town
years, he said, when Governor Clin-
bling either to distance themselves
of 354 in the foothills of the Ozark
ton and his wife, Hillary, "literally
from the comments or to try to clar-
Mountains, where homes seem to
forced the state education system to
ify them as aimed more at policies
hang from the sides of the roads.
help itself and become better.'
than people.
Situated 75 miles northwest of Lit-
But more than anything else, it
tle Rock, Shirley is a place where the
struck at what Art English, a political
appellation "hillbilly" has ceased to
science professor at the University of
be fighting words and become more
Arkansas, called the war between
Not everyone in town was offended
of a marketing tool as in Bea Macke's
pride and a pervasive "inferiority
by the President's remarks. Mrs.
"hillbilly pizza" at B & G's Bakery.
complex" in the state. Arkansans are
Macke, the co-owner of B & G's Bak-
("It's a deep-dish affair with Parme-
aware that they rank low in a number
ery, said that it was all hot air and
san, mozzarella and provolone
of categories, he and others noted, but
that she still intended to vote for Mr.
cheeses," she said.) But many saw in
also have a sense that they have done
Bush. Jo Reid, Ailene Smith and Alice
the President's words an echo of the
much with little and have come a long
Wiley, customers at the bakery from
old negative stereotypes.
way in a very short time.
nearby Fairfield Bay, a retirement
Betsey Wright, the research direc-
community of 2,500, said that among
tor of the Clinton campaign whose of-
their neighbors Republicanism runs
fice prepared detailed responses
deeper than Arkansas chauvinism.
"He didn't use the word 'hillbilly,'
challenging some of the President's
But others like Tom Kimmons, who
but that's what a lot of us thought
comments, called them more of the
runs a local development company,
about when he said that," said Mayor
effort to "divide us by race, age, gen-
said President Bush's comments be-
John Clark Jr., a strong supporter of
der and income" rather than bring
trayed a certain condescension to
Gov. Bill Clinton, as he stood in the
people together.
rural people. "He made a fundamen-
parking lot of Jones Grocery Store
"Bush doesn't know anything about
tal error," said Mr. Kimmons. "He
where farmers, retirees and others
rural people," said Mr. Smith. "He
separated and excluded us and others
often gather for morning coffee. "It's
may be a smart man, but he's a dumb
like us. But we Americans too."
"All the News
That's Fit to Print"
The New York Timas
NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
Justice Dept. Is Criticized
Over Environmental Cases
By JOHN H. CUSHMAN Jr.
Special to The New York Times
WASHINGTON, Oct. 29 - Congres-
But Federal prosecutors did not ap-
sional Democrats and the Bush Admin-
pear at those hearings. Mr. Schumer
istration are locked in a bitter dispute
said he planned to subpoena-them to
over the Justice Department's record
appear before his committee.
in prosecuting environmental crimes.
The report said a "serious problem
In the latest salvo, a Congressional
exists" between the Justice Depart-
committee today made public a study
ment and its various United States
asserting that Federal prosecutors
Attorneys' offices. "The level of mis-
have been blocked from bringing crim-
trust running from the assistant U.S.
inal charges against environmental of-
Attorneys to the environmental crime
fenders even when the evidence in the
section is palpable," it said.
case seemed ironclad.
The report singled out for criticism
The study suggested that the prose-
several former and current Justice De-
cutors were being stymied for political
partment officials, including Neil Car-
reasons, an assertion it said was sup-
tusciello, the chief of the environmen-
ported by off-the-record statements
tal crime section. It said that Mr. Car-
made by law-enforcement officials
tusciello repeatedly interfered with
around the country.
prosecutions of environmental crimes.
The study was written for Repre-
'Political Hatchet Job'
sentative Charles E. Schumer, chair-
man of the House Judiciary Commit-
In an interview, Mr. Cartusciello and
tee's subcommittee on crime, by Jona-
Mr. Clegg excoriated the report as
than Turley, a professor at George
being grossly unfair, saying that its
Washington University who teaches
author had never contacted them and
courses on environmental crime. He
that there were many factual errors on
and his associates interviewed law-en-
crucial points.
forcement officials confidentially in
"This is an obviously political hatch-
preparing the report, Mr. Turley said.
et job commissioned by a liberal Dem-
'Greatest Impediment'
ocratic Congressman and written by a
"The Department of Justice in the
past has proven the greatest impedi-
ment to prosecution that these prosecu-
A study suggests
tors have faced," he said in an inter-
view on Wednesday.
politics is
Roger B. Clegg, Deputy Assistant
Attorney General for environmental
impeding
affairs, called the report "politically
timed" and "a hatchet job.'
The report's release comes as Presi-
prosecutions.
dent Bush is seeking to defend his
environmental record from Democrat-
ic critics, in part by issuing several
junior professor," Mr. Clegg said. "The
new regulations governing pollution
report, I think, was not intended to be
under the Clean Air Act. The report
fair. 11 is completely inaccurate. It was
suggested that no matter what laws
written by law students supervised by
are enacted, the Justice Department
a junior law professor. None of these
and its environmental crime section
individuals appear to have any prose-
are not aggressively prosecuting viola-
cutorial experience."
tions.
Although they conceded that at times
The Justice Department, in response
prosecutors in the field disagree with
to the study, today published its own
supervisors over whether to bring
statistics showing that there were a
cases to trial, Mr. Clegg said that dur-
record 161 criminal indictments for
ing Mr. Cartusciello's tenure there was
environmental offenses in the fiscal
"no case, no case," in which the ulti-
year that ended Sept. 30, and a record
mate decision caused "any disagree-
$163 million in criminal penalties. The
ment between the U.S. Attorney's of-
figure for criminal penalties included
fice and us."
$125 million in a single case, the Exxon
Prosecutors and other law-enforce-
Valdez oil spill; the remaining $38 mil-
ment officials declined to be inter-
lion in penalties exceeded those as-
viewed on the record. United States
resued in any previous year.
attorneys and their assistants, who
Mr. Schumer, Democrat of New
prosecute cases in the field, are em-
York, said he had been pressing the
ployecs of the Justice Department and
issue for nearly two years and that the
could be disciplined for breaking ranks
report was not timed for the election.
with the department.
The report said staff members of the
'Level of Mistrust'
Environmental Protection Agency
Several Congressional committees
have complained that the Justice De-
have recently held hearings into some
partment has been "an impediment to
of the cases examined in the report,
prosecution" and that assistant United
and much of the case histories the
States attorneys "can point 10 a clear
report cites came from these hearings,
pattern" of "interference with environ-
not from original research.
mental prosecutions."
"All the News
That's Fit to Print"
The New York Times
NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
Abroad at Home
On talk shows now, when he is
ANTHONY LEWIS
asked about the cover-up of the fi-
nancing of Iraq, the President says he
was just trying to bring Iraq "into the
Living
family of nations" - and alas, the
policy didn't work. The hosts do not
know enough to press him on why he
With
said nothing when Saddam Hussein
massed his troops, why he did not act
when warned of the arms buildup or
why he continues to shield the finan-
Lies
cial maneuverers today.
Cynicism has characterized Mr.
Bush's career in politics for a long
time. He opposed civil rights laws
At the end of what has seemed an
when he thought that position would
interminable campaign, we are left
advance him in Texas, then switched.
with a question of character: How
He was for abortion, then against. He
ridiculed what he called Ronald Rea-
does George Bush live with the knowl-
edge of his disregard for truth in
gan's "voodoo economics," then be-
came a fervent advocate of same.
politics?
Even to ask the question may seem
Truth has been a frequent casualty
naïve, so cynical have we become
in his campaigns. In 1988 he used a
about politicians. They all lie, many
picture of a waste dump elsewhere to
illustrate a television ad about Boston
would say, so why should we expect
Harbor. This time the false advertis-
President Bush's conscience to be
ing has been wholesale.
troubled?
A Bush radio ad said that Bill Clin-
Yes, but. It is right to be skeptical
ton favored "radical environmental
about politicians, but surely there is a
taxes" on fuel. Governor Clinton has
level of brazen falsehood that they
not advocated any such tax.
should be ashamed to breach.
Another advertisement on the ra-
That point was passed by Mr. Bush
dio began with"a farmer saying he
when as Vice President he was inter-
would "like to plant a crop of corn,
viewed by David Broder of The Wash-
please." A voice replies: "I'm sorry,
ington Post on Aug. 5, 1987. Mr.
sir, the Clinton-Gore Land Manage-
Broder asked about his role in the
ment Directorate has classified your
Iran-contra affair. Mr. Bush an-
farm as a wetland.
you're delin-
swered at length that he was not
quent on the new Clinton-Gore farm
informed about it until after it ended.
operations taxes." No such tax or
"We were not in the loop," he said.
program has been proposed by the
There is now a mountain of evi-
Democratic candidates.
dence that Mr. Bush was fully in-
The main thrust of the entire Bush
formed about the shipment of arms to
campaign this year has been nega-
Iran in return for the release of hos-
tive: a series of efforts to smear
tages. He was briefed by both Ameri-
Governor Clinton. Mr. Bush insinuat-
can and Israeli intelligence. He may,
ed that there was something sinister
even have had an important opera-
in a trip Mr. Clinton made to Moscow
tional role.
as a young man. Political types from
Yet he goes on denying all. How
the State Department rummaged
through Mr. Clinton's passport files
- and his mother's. Mr. Bush said
Governor Clinton had written a letter
Is there no
condemning all the U.S. military "as
immoral." There was no such letter.
level of
Do the smears work? Analysts and
poll takers say the public is less likely
falsehood that
to believe such attacks today. But
they have worked in the past, and we
Bush hesitates
cannot really be sure that lies have no
effect.
to breach?
Some people have asked me why
George Bush did not run as the Presi-
dent this year: with dignity, as Ger-
ald Ford did in 1976, almost winning
does he meet the eyes of David
against the odds. The answer is that
Broder, a man of honor? How does he
that has never been his style. He is by
live with himself?
instinct a negative campaigner.
Then there is Iraq. For years Mr.
George Bush is, and so is his han-
Bush boosted Saddam Hussein. De-
dler, James A. Baker 3d. Mr. Baker is
spite repeated warnings that Iraq
the invisible man, avoiding responsi-
was acquiring weapons of terror, he
bility for this slimy campaign. But he
approved huge loan guarantees. Even
was the manager when Willie Horton
when Iraqi troops massed on Ku-
and the fake Boston Harbor flour-
wait's border, he said nothing. Then
ished in 1988, and he is in charge now.
when Saddam Hussein attacked, Mr.
The hands may be the hands of Esau,
Bush suddenly discovered that he
but the voice is the voice of Jacob.
was "worse than Hitler."
"All the News
That's Fit to Print"
The New York Times
NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
On My Mind
A. M. ROSENTHAL
It's the
Economy,
Stupid
Drugs, crime, a paralyzed justice
Now that the campaign is almost
system: candidates do put out some
over, the country owes the candidates
position papers. They don't get much
gratitude for what Americans want
attention, because they do not convey
so much - a vacation from the reali-
the horror.
ties of national life.
Did anything from the candidates
That might seem a crabby thought
show they understood what "urban
- after all those months when the
affairs" now means? What it is like to
candidates kept lecturing the country
live in a neighborhood controlled by
about the economy.
drug mobs and know they kill at
"The economy, stupid," reads the
whim or at random? Or where par-
sign in the office of Bill Clinton's
ents take their kids out of school to
campaign strategist. President Bush
try to keep them from being shot
is boiling down the whole election to
down in the streets outside?
two words: trust and taxes. Ross
And which candidate or which posi-
Perot managed to do it in one -
deficit.
The attitude surveys convinced
candidates that all that Americans
cared about was the economy and
Yes sir,
how it translated into jobs. Ignore
but
that and lose.
The surveys were probably right.
whose?
So given the choice of lead, follow or
get out of the way, the candidates
trotted right behind the polls.
But something strange happened -
all the virtuous talk and position pa-
tion paper dealt with men and women
pers on the economy had a smother-
with broken minds living, wandering
ing, flattening-out effect on American
and defecating in the streets?
reality and the American memory. It
The political professionals pound it
into our heads that the rest of the
homogenized the very problems that
world matters zero in this campaign
a sturdier economy was supposed to
- no clout in surveys at all. Still, it is
cure. That allowed them to be com-
hard to believe that Americans really
fortably diminished in our mind, pri-
don't care whether the next Presiden-
orities and conscience.
In April, when Los Angeles was I
cy would try to prevent Bosnians
from being murdered or Somali chil-
burning, the country, in shock, literal-
dren from walking about with swollen
ly prayed that this time our "lead-
bellies, just because Bosnians and
ers" would pay attention and do
Somalis don't create jobs, except for
something, do something.
foreign grave diggers.
But look what happened, lame-
Unpleasantly specific truths are
brain: by summer Los Angeles was
not ignored - just smoothed down,
getting footnote political attention,
made less scary, by over-generalized
barely.
economy talk. We are told repeatedly
Los Angeles was the result of eco-
that unemployment is about 7.5 per-
nomic and racial rage. Nonsense -
cent - but rarely that it is at least
Los Angeles was the work of lawless
triple that for teen-agers in ghettos.
hooligans looking for an excuse to
The candidates explain that
riot. No - Los Angeles was the result
strengthening the whole economy will
of both.
help us find money to deal with drugs,
Take your pick. But one thing is
crime, violence, maybe even a few
everything that for
Boshians and Somahs.
Los Angeles riot still exists in cities
That's nice. But the candidates
around the country.
should explain something else. How
The mesmerized focus on broad-
do other democracies manage to
issue economics blunted the needle of
have cleaner streets, safer neighbor-
national awareness that emergency
hoods and safer banks, less drugs, no
social and law-enforcement action
guns, better medical insurance, fewer
was imperative. That is dangerous.
wreckages of tenements and people,
Incidentally, whatever happened to
without waiting until the complete
the matter of racial tensions? Demo-
grand, overall, very macro, big-pic-
crats are pushing race relations into
ture economic problem is settled, by
the background because they do not
some unspecified superstrategy?
want Jesse Jackson in the fore-
Maybe Presidential candidates will
ground. Republicans don't see politi-
find out. Maybe they will think city,
cal capital in talking about it at all.
town and neighborhood economics, as
Mr. Perot is still recovering from the
well as national.
discovery that "you people" is not the
When? In 1996, stupid.
way African-Americans prefer to be
addressed.
"All the News
That's Fit to Print"
The New York Times
NEW YORK, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
Bush Remains the Favorite Among Executives
Sculley. chairman of Apple Computer Inc., and
Few pro-Bush executives fix much blame on
By THOMAS C. HAYES
John A. Young. chief executive of the Hewlett-
Mr. Bush for the weak economy, since he en-
Packard Company, are backing Governor Clin-
tered the White House in 1989. Robert W. Gal-
President Bush might have been trailing Gov.
ton because of his promise to promote Ameri-
vin, chairman of the executive committee and
Bill Clinton in the opinion polls since midsum-
ca's technology sector, Dr. Amelio is part of the
former chief executive of Motorola Inc., said
mer, but like most Republicans in past cam-
San Francisco Bay Area technology leadership
that the heavy debt loads and the real-estate
paigns for the White House, the President
that remains behind Mr. Bush.
bust that followed the boom times of the 1980's
seems to have held a commanding lead among
"I was surprised that the President had not
were created by business leaders themselves
American business executives.
seized the opportunity to counteract more rap-
rather than by tax policy or the deregulation of
A Fortune magazine poll of 184 chief execu-
idly what Clinton was doing" in Silicon Valley,
banks that stimulated lending.
tives taken in July after Ross Perot withdrew
he said.
"Unless a President were a dictator, and we
from the race showed President Bush favored
At an Oct. 15 news conference in Santa Clara
don't want that in this society, he couldn't have
by 85 percent, with just 9 percent for Governor
organized by the Bush-Quayle '92 campaign,
stopped my peers from making all the dumb
Clinton. Such samplings have limited statistical
Dr. Amelio said the Bush trade policies had
moves in the 80's that sucked the strength out of
validity, but a fax poll conducted last week of
the economy," Mr. Galvin said. "Frankly, I
219 small-business owners by Ernst & Young.
don't think Presidents have all that much to do
the accounting concern, showed that 51 percent
with how an economy goes."
planned to vote for President Bush, with 18
The candidate who's for
David Packard. the 80-year-old billionaire
percent for Mr. Perot and 15 percent for Gover-
and chairman of Hewlett-Packard, agrees that
nor Clinton.
W.R. Timken Jr., chairman of the Timken
what business wants on
the President's power Is limited in the face of an
increasingly global economy.
Company, a manufacturer of roller bearings
taxes, interest rates and
"President Bush has really been a victim of
and specialty steel products based in Canton,
the condition of the world economy," he said in
Ohio, said business leaders in Ohio were "over-
the Federal deficit.
an interview. "That makes it difficult in this
whelmingly for President Bush." Mr. Timken is
election because not many people understand
the state's fund-raising chairman for the Presi-
that.
dent. and he accompanied Mr. Bush Wednesday
"My view is that the President's experience,
on his speaking tour of Ohio.
his relationships with other countries is very
Many executives and small-business owners
helped American chip makers double their
important. The proposals Clinton is making are
interviewed this week said the President was
share of Japanese chip orders, to 16 percent,
not realistic. He probably won't be able to do
the candidate most likely to follow a set of
adding 25,000 jobs in the United States economy
what he plans to do, and things may become
policies that would keep taxes and interest
since 1986.
even worse if he does. Perot is pretty much out
rates in check, restrain the Federal debt and
Likewise, Paul H. O'Neill, chairman and chief
of It."
the surge in health-care costs, and nudge the
executive of Alcoa Inc. in Pittsburgh and head
economy toward a broader recovery.
of a White House advisory group on education,
Data Buoys Hopes
Yet several said they were concerned that the
said the President had not received or asked for
Several executives said their hopes for an
President had lost precious time by undersell-
much praise for setting ambitious education
Improving economy were buoyed Wednesday
ing to voters many of his first-term accomplish-
goals and stirring action at local levels.
by the Commerce Department report that the
ments, as well as his plans to put more focus on
"It was an historic achievement, but no-
economy grew at a rate of 2.7 percent in the
domestic problems, especially the economy.
body's paying any attention to it," said Mr.
third quarter.
during his second term.
O'Neill, a senior White House budget official in
Gilbert F. Amello, president and chief execu-
the Nixon and Ford Administrations. "Once in a
"We asked American corporations to become
tive of the National Semiconductor Corporation,
while, one hears Bill Clinton say how he contrib-
leaner and more competitive, and I think
in Santa Clara, Calif., said he was surprised in
uted and that President Bush gave him credit
they've done that," said Donald B. Marron,
the last few months to discover how much work
for it, which is true. But it was all under the
chairman and chief executive of the Paine
White House officials had completed on high-
President's leadership. There is a lot going on,
technology policy plans for a second term.
but he has not done a good job of articulating the
While some Republican executives, like John
importance of what he accomplished."
Continued on Page D9
Bush Favored by Executives
in 1981.
Continued From First Business Page
Mr. O'Neill struck a common
theme, saying that because President
Webber Group. "We asked American
Bush could not be elected for a third
individuals to go from being spenders
term in 1996, he would be free to act
to savers. And they are doing that."
aggressively to limit spending. He
Both trends, he said, would eventu-
added that he hoped the President
ally make the economy stronger, but
would disregard conventional Wash-
have dampened growth during the
ington advice and talk frankly about
Bush Administration by adding to un-
the perils of the mounting Federal
employment and slowing consumer
debt.
spending. If taxes were raised under
"I'd like to believe that the Ameri-
a Clinton Presidency, Mr. Marron
can people are willing to do some-
added, "it would be a further drag on
thing serious about the deficit," Mr.
the economy."
O'Neill said. "That means reducing
Betty Hardle, majority owner and
their time at the pig trough, or pony-
chief executive of Good Value Homes,
ing up some more taxes. The world is
which builds 200 to 300 homes a year
picking up its pace, and we re going to
in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area, said
lose ground unless we solve some of
she would vote again for the Presi-
these problems."
dent, though reluctantly.
Policies and Jobs
"I had hoped that he would be a
A study of economic policies advo-
more forceful leader somehow," she
cated by the Bush, Clinton and Perot
said. "The No. I issue is building an
camps sponsored by the National
economy that creates jobs. I'm
Center for Policy Analysis concluded
tempted to say that a little Govern-
last week that the Bush plan would
ment spending would help. But over a
add 602,000 jobs to the demestic econ-
longer picture, I'm not so sure."
omy by 1998 as low interest rates
Small-Business Incentives
stimulate economic growth.
James 1. Milner. owner of an elec-
The Clinton program would cut
trical construction and engineering
nearly a million jobs during the same
company in Lexington, Ky., said
period; 335,000 jobs would be lost
President Bush had the best position
under the Perot plan. said the pri-
of the three candidates for improving
vately financed research center. The
tax incentives for small businesses
organization. based in Dallas, studies
like his, with its 225 employees.
Federal tax policies.
Many of these Bush supporters
The center added that economic
said the Democratic majority in Con-
proposals embraced by Edmund P.
gress and the Republican White
Brown Jr., the former Governor of
House were both to blame for the
California and an unsuccessful Dem-
heavy spending that have helped
ocratic candidate for President this
cause the Federal debt to more than
year, would have created 2.4 million
double, to nearly $4 trillion. since
jobs - the most of any plan offered
President Ronald Reagan took office
by this year's candidates.
WASHINGTON EDITION/LOS ANGELES TIMES
FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30, 1992
COLUMN LEFT/
MARTIN MAYER
Turning the
Wheels for a
Better Deal
Workers mistrust government,
tiveness" in a time of falling asset prices,
Karl Marx posited an "iron law of capital-
sensing that it regards them as
ism" that would lead to the "immiseration"
disposable servants.
of the work force. It was the genius of
America-the reason ours became the
American century-that America proved
I England, the Catholic populist G.K.
n 1911, on the occasion of a strike in
him wrong. But for the last 20 years, their
noses pressed against computer screens,
Chesterton wrote a bit of doggerel verse
the economists in our business schools
about King Dives walking in his garden in
have been trying to prove him right.
an unfamiliar silence. Dives wondered why
One of the functions of government in
the machinery of the mills had stopped,
the United States has been to persuade
and heard a chorus of voices from beneath
enterprise that its constituency is wider
the ground:
than just the entrepreneurs. We promoted
Call upon the wheels, master, call upon the
collective. bargaining to remind manage-
wheels;
ment that workers are partners in produc-
We are taking rest, master, finding how it
tion. We forbade deceptive advertising to
feels,
give consumers confidence that what they
Strict the law of thine and mine: theft we
saw bore a reasonable resemblance to what
ever shun-
they got. We limited the emissions of
All the wheels are thine, master-tell the
smokestacks and controlled the flow of
wheels to run!
effluent into our rivers to make manufac-
The verse comes to my mind whenever I
turers better neighbors.
hear some panjandrum of the Treasury or
The question about taxes, surely, is not
governor of the Federal Reserve-or,
whether they are high or low but whether
indeed, President of the United States-
the community gets its money's worth
wondering why Americans don't feel any
from paying them. Taxes much diminished
confidence in the economy. They lack
from what we now pay would still be a
confidence because they feel that nobody is
rip-off as the price of the government
taking care of them.
President Bush would like to -give us.
In the last dozen years of emphasis on
On the other hand, it isn't impossible-
the "supply side," Americans have learned
unlikely, but not impossible-that a Clin-
that their government sees them as ser-
ton or a Perot presidency would renew
vants, sometimes superfluous servants, of
good feeling about government and the
the wheels. They hear the bells tolling for
country, and about what good government
the 30,000 layoffs at IBM, the closing of
can do for the country. If Americans began
Willow Run, the restructurings at the
to feel once again that the government
banks, and they understand that these
they elect is on their side, government
bells toll for them. King Dives tells them to
might be a bargain even at the price of
additional taxes.
return to the stores, to shop till they drop,
to turn the wheels again-but they have
"The fundamental function of the law,"
other things on their minds.
McGeorge Bundy once said, "is to prevent
A few months ago, the chairman of
the natural unfairness of society from
General Motors told an appreciative audi-
becoming intolerable." For a quarter of a
ence of institutional shareholders that his
century, we have had federal governments
exclusive goal was going to be the profita-
that believe unfairness is perfectly OK so
bility of the enterprise. Not the perform-
long as you can make out any kind of a case
that it's natural.
ance of the work force or the quality of the
product or the satisfaction of the consum-
An ever-increasing proportion of the
ers or the reputation of the brand-just the
population feels the unfairness of govern-
profitability of the company, quarter by
ment and behaves accordingly. The wheels
quarter. To that end, one closes factories,
jam. The roots of this recession, in other
freezes salaries, reduces medical coverage,
words, are profoundly political, and only a
out-sources parts to get the cheapest stuff
political change will get us out of it.
to put in the cars-and writes pink slips
wherever possible. The market loved the
Martin Mayer, a New York-based busi-
speech, and the price of GM stock quickly
ness writer, is the author of "The Greatest
rose by 40%. But such actions do not build
Ever Bank Robbery: The Collapse of the
confidence. When the market rewards the
Savings & Loan Industry." (Macmillan,
management that reduces the head count,
1990).
the heads got nervous and exportation
doesn't cheer them up.
More than a century ago, watching a
similar quest for international "competi-
'If Americans began to feel
once again that the
government they elect is on
their side, government might
be a bargain even at the price
of additional taxes.'
WASHINGTON
EDITION
ANGELES
TIMES
FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30, 1992
U.S. Treasurer
Target of FBI
Investigation
By RONALD J. OSTROW
and ERICHARRISON
TIMES STAFF WRITER
WASHINGTON-The FBI is in-
vestigating U.S. Treasurer Catalina
Vasquez Villalpando, one of the
Bush Administration's highest-
ranking Latinos, for allegedly vio-
lating federal statutes by accepting
travel, lodging and possibly other
benefits from a private company,
sources close to the inquiry said
Thursday.
FBI agents searched four build-
ings in the Washington area and
one in suburban Atlanta on
Please see PROBE, A9
PROBE: Treasurer
Is Targeted by FBI
Continued from A1
center of controversy in the presi-
Wednesday, reportedly seizing
dential campaign in August be-
bank records, computer files and
cause she characterized Democrat-
boxes full of papers.
ic nominee Bill Clinton and former
The Atlanta location was the
San Antonio Mayor Henry Cisne-
office of Communications Interna-
ros, who is campaigning for Clin-
tional Inc., of which Villalpando
ton, as "two skirt-chasers."
was a senior vice president and
She and President Bush quickly
partner. The company also has
apologized for the remark. But a
offices in Washington and Los
top Clinton aide, campaign com-
Angeles.
munications director George Ste-
Villalpando, 52, could not be
phanopoulos, called for her dis-
reached for comment Thursday
missal by Bush.
night. She was appointed U.S.
Treasurer by Bush in 1989 after
serving eight years in a variety of
C
ommunications International,
whose current relationship
posts in the Ronald Reagan Ad-
with Villalpando could not be im-
ministration. She is past chairman
mediately determined, reportedly
of the Republican National His-
provided the telephone hookup
panic Assembly and, as treasurer,
that permitted U.S. forces involved
oversees operations of the U.S.
in the 1991 Persian Gulf War to
mint.
talk to relatives in the United
States.
A
lthough the investigation fo-
An Atlanta television station,
cuses on favors that she alleg-
ABC-affiliate WSB-TV, reported
edly accepted from Communica-
Thursday that agents searched the
tions International, the search
Communications International of-
warrants listed a wide range of
fice there until midnight Wednes-
serious crimes, according to sourc-
day before leaving with a rental
es familiar with the inquiry. They
truck filled with items that had
include bribery, conspiracy to de-
been seized.
fraud the government, making
Joseph Profit, founder of the
false or fraudulent claims, racket-
company, told the station that
eering, making false statements to
federal authorities advised him he
federal agents and fraud by wire,
was not a subject of the investiga-
radio or television.
tion. "They told me we were wit-
The sale ch Worken
Tleases 2..d would be asked to
on the basis of affidavits that
provide information.
detailed the alleged criminal con-
Profit, a former player for the
duct but were sealed by federal
Atlanta Falcons in the National
courts. Villalpando is the central
Football League. also said that he
figure in the investigation, al-
found the timing of the raid suspi-
though other individuals are also
cious because it came a week
believed to be involved. sources
before the elections. However. po-
close to the matter said.
litical motivation seems unlikely
Asked about the investigation
since the investigation is being
late Thursday, a Justice Depart-
carried out under a Republican
ment spokesman said: "We just
administration.
can't comment at all."
Villalpando whose signature ap-
Ostrow reported from Washington
pears on dollar bills, was at the
and Harrison from Atlanta.
ASHINGTON
EDITION/LOS
ANGELES
TIMES
FRIDAY,
OCTOBER
30,
1992
Outcome Likely
to Shape Future
of Supreme Court
Courts: Retirements would create opportunities, and
names of potential nominees are on the minds of
Democrats and Republicans.
Independent candidate Hoss
Perot's campaign manager, Orson
Swindle, said the Texas billionaire
But Democratic activists say it is
has not addressed the issue of
wrong to assume that Cuomo
By DAVID G. SAVAGE
TIMES STAFF WRITER
appointing Supreme Court justices.
would be nominated. "I think it's
Duke University Law Professor
not very likely" Cuomo would be
ASHINGTON-For the last
Walter Dellinger, a Clinton advis-
named to the high court, said one
W
25 years, Republican presi-
er, noted that prior to 1970, a
activist with ties to the Clinton
dents have appointed every new
typical Supreme Court nominee
campaign. "There would be too
much of a political cost."
justice to the U.S. Supreme Court.
had decades of legal experience as
As a result of their long domina-
well as some national prominence.
tion of the White House, Republi-
"[Oliver Wendell] Holmes. F.
cans from Richard M. Nixon
[Louis D.] Brandeis and Lewis
through George Bush have created
Powell were in their 60s when they
a high court that is sympathetic
were appointed to the court," Del-
toward government power and
linger noted. By contrast, Ronald
linton came to the governor-
skeptical about claims of individual
Reagan chose Douglas Ginsburg,
rights. Four of the nine justices
41, who subsequently withdrew.
ship of Arkansas with a strong
said in June, for instance, that they'
Bush selected David H. Souter, 50.
legal wife, Hillary. graduated from
background. Both he and Yale his
would vote to overturn the right to
and Clarence Thomas. 43.
choose abortion-meaning if just
The most often named potential
Law School. He taught constitu- of
Clinton nominees include such na-
tional law at the University
one more justice agrees with them.
the landmark Roe VS. Wade deci-
tionally known politicians as New
Arkansas and served as the state's a
sion will be reversed.
York Gov. Mario M. Cuomo; Senate
attorney general: she became Rock.
If Bush is reelected, by 1996 all
Majority Leader George J. Mitchell
prominent attorney in Little
nine justices would likely be con-
(D-Me.), a former federal judge;
But unlike many governors, on
Clinton has made little impact
servative Republican appointees.
the state's courts because judges
With one or two appointments,
however, a President Bill Clinton
there are elected. not appointed.
Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (D-
Bush's first high-court appoint-
could push the court back toward
Conn.), a former state attorney
Souter, has proved to be a
the ideological middle. The oppor-
tunity could come if two justices
general and friend of the Clintons;
ee, moderate conservative. Bush's
follow through on hints they might
and Sen. Patrick J. Leahy (D-Vt.),
second one, Thomas, has aligned
soon retire.
a member of the Judiciary Com-
himself with the court's right wing.
Who would Bush appoint in a
One, Justice Harry A. Blackmun,
mittee.
second term? The names most offi-
a moderate liberal who wrote Roe,
Also on the list are prominent
law professors such as Harvard
often cited by Administration U.S.
turns 84 next month. The other,
Justice Byron R. White, 75, the
University's Laurence H. Tribe
cials and GOP activists are
lone remaining Democratic ap-
and a nationally recognized chil-
Solicitor Gen. Kenneth W. Starr,
dren's-rights advocate and former
U.S. appeals court Judge Frank U.S.
pointee, is often aligned with the
civil rights attorney, Marian
Easterbrook of Chicago, and
court's conservative wing; he was
one of the four justices who de-
Wright Edelman.
Trade Representative Carla An-
clared he would reverse the abor-
Another frequently mentioned
derson Hills.
tion-rights decision.
name is that of a relatively obscure
As the government's top attor-
but highly regarded black jurist,
F
or the record, Clinton's aides
Amalya L. Kearse, 55, who has
ney has made both friends
before the Supreme Court, and
compiled a moderate, pro-business
Starr enemies. He is affable and highly
say it is premature to talk about
any nominees. Clinton has not been
record on the U.S. 2nd Circuit
capable as an advocate, but he has
elected and no Supreme Court
Court of Appeals in New York.
pressed the court to overturn Roe,
The list also includes U.S. ap-
the abortion-rights decision. a po-
justice has announced plans to
retire, they note.
peals court Judge Richard S. Ar-
sition that could spell trouble if he
But with the Arkansas governor
nold, 56, of Little Rock, Ark., a
needed confirmation from a Demo-
holding a lead in the polls, liberal
Clinton friend; U.S. appeals court
cratically controlled Senate.
legal activists and some Clinton
Judge Stephanie Seymour of Tulsa,
advisers have been quietly trading
Okla., and former Columbia Uni-
names of potential nominees.
versity Law School Dean Barbara
They say Clinton would stress
Aronstein Black, 59.
quality and achievement, rather
But the name that has gained the
than ideology. But he has warned
most attention is Cuomo's.
that abortion rights are hanging by
In June, during the taping of a
a thread and has said his nominees
cable-TV music program. Clinton
would support Roe. Later, he said
cited Cuomo as someone who
simply that they would support a
would be a "good Supreme Court
right to privacy, which was the
basis for Roe.
Clinton edged away from the New
Clinton's nominees would likely
York governor, saying he had not
be older and more established in
intended to make a "commitment.
their professions than recent Re-
I said he's the sort of person I
publican choices and may well
think would be a good justice."
have served in other public posts.
In TV ads and in recent speech-
The Reagan and Bush adminis-
es, Bush has derided Cuomo. a
trations often sought out young,
fierce foe of the death penalty. as
academically oriented lawyers for
typical of the soft-on-crime judges
key judgeships. ignoring older and
picked by liberal presidents.
better-known Republicans.
"We must not go back to ap-
pointing judges to the court who
oppose anti-crime measures, who
oppose the death penalty for these
most heinous of crimes," Bush told
a police chiefs meeting in Detroit
on Sunday.
Jackson Hopes for Pay-Back From Campaign
Democrats: The civil rights leader is working to pile up IOUs. If
the civil rights leader at arm's length for
Brown declared. "He's cut all kinds of radio
fear that associating with him too closely
ads, traveled throughout the country, and
victorious, Clinton camp says, requests will be carefully considered.
would be controversial and perhaps coun-
is a very positive force."
terproductive, especially in the South
Jackson, who is campaigning in a plane
By JACK NELSON
to put a future Clinton Administration in
where white voters in recent presidential
provided by the Democratic National Com-
TIMES WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF
his debt.
elections have voted overwhelmingly for
mittee, is believed to have been especially
George Stephanopoulos, Clinton's com-
the Republican nominee.
effective in are.: of the South and South-
W
ASHINGTON-Bill Clinton's cam-
munications director, this week called
Clinton's decision has resulted in several
west where there are large minority popu-
paign, after months of treating the
Jackson's activities "critically important"
awkward joint appearances with Jackson,
lations and many minorities are running for
Rev. Jesse Jackson as though he were
to the campaign and said they should help
including one at the annual Black Family
congressional seats. But he also has cam-
radioactive, is now counting on the civil
spur a big voter turnout. Jackson, he said,
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
Reunion held on the Washington Monu-
paigned heavily in other regions of the
rights leader to spur a big turnout of young
is "pragmatic, a real pro" who understands
ment grounds in mid-September. At that
country and ha: attracted large audiences
and minority voters that could be crucial
the importance of a Democratic victory
event, Clinton started to leave the stage
on college camp:tses;-where Democrats say
for the Democratic ticket in a tightening
after 12 years of Republican rule.
after addressing the crowd when Jackson
he has stimulated increases in voter regis-
presidential race.
"Jesse's doing a great, untold job for the
handed him a Rainbow Coalition T-shirt
tration.
And Jackson, who for months carried on
campaign and drawing crowds of 5,000 and
and directed him back to the podium to
a semi-public quarrel with Clinton over the
10,000 wherever he goes," said David
announce the registration drive Jackson
extent of his commitment to helping mi-
Wilhelm, Clinton's campaign manager.
was about to begin.
A
fter campaigning Sunday and Monday
The governor, although apparently tak-
in Texas, -here he addressed large
norities, is now laboring quietly to pile up
what he hopes will become valuable IOUs
J
ackson has followed a hectic pace in
en aback by Jackson's-maneuver, told the
audiences and le throngs of voters to the
owed to him by a Clinton White House if
campaigning in more than 30 states since
crowd that Jackson would "go around the
polls to vote in pre-Election Day balloting,
the Arkansas governor wins Tuesday.
mid-September when he and his private
country and try to galvanize every person
Jackson said he believes the new Congress
will include "about 40 African-Americans,
Democratic officials acknowledge that
organization, the Rainbow Coalition,
in this country who isn't registered and tell
any requests or proposals Jackson makes
reached an agreement with the Democratic
them their vote counts just as much as the
20 Hispanics and two Native Americans."
National Committee and the Clinton cam-
rest of us."
The relatively large number of minority
after the election will get careful consider-
paign to undertake a nationwide voter
While their relations have remained
candidates running in such states as North
ation.
WASHINGTON EDITION/LOS ANGELES TIMES
Jackson's present low-profile efforts
registration drive under their auspices. His
cool, Clinton aides say the governor and
Carolina, Georgi>, Florida, Mississippi and
campaigning has been publicized in states
Jackson have been conferring periodically
Texas, he said, should bring out a large
mark a sharp change from 1984 and 1988,
where he has traveled, but has gotten scant
on the telephone.
minority vote for Clinton. "Those candi-
when he insisted on obtaining highly
notice elsewhere.
Chairman Ronald H. Brown of the Dem-
dates are pulling their own weight and
visible commitments from the Democratic
Although still bitter about being shunted
ocratic National Committee, who managed
pushing the vote for the Democratic tick-
nominees after his own bids for the party's
aside by Clinton, Jackson said in an inter-
Jackson's 1988 campaign and now serves as
et," he said.
presidential nomination fell short. Those
view that he will discuss differences over
a frequent go-between for the two men,
Although expressing confidence that
commitments were seen by many strate-
campaign tactics and policy priorities with
said he believes Clinton and Jackson will
Clinton will win, Jackson worries that
gists as harmful to former Vice President
the Arkansas governor after the November
resolve whatever policy differences they
political analysts will attribute a Derpo-
Walter F. Mondale and then-Massachu-
election.
have after the election. Except for Jackson
cratic victory, at least in part, to the tactic
setts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis in their
The campaign "is not about Gov. Clin-
wanting to put higher priority on spending
of keeping him at an arm's length.
quests for the White House.
ton's tactics, we can address that after the
for social programs, Brown said, he sees no
"The reason that Clinton will win,"
Clinton made clear from the outset that
election," he said. "It is about beating
serious policy differences between them.
Jackson asserted, "is not his tactics. It is
he intended to avoid what he saw as their
George Bush and electing Bill Clinton."
"I know that nobody has worked harder
the economy and the fact that urban,
mistakes. Jackson decided this fall to halt
Jackson, 51, had expected to play a more
to register voters, to motivate and inspire
suburban and rural America have a com-
his public sparring with the Democratic
prominent role in the Clinton campaign.
voters to come and vote for the Democratic
mon economic goal. There is a tidal wave of
nominee, lick his wounds in private and try
But Clinton's tactics have been to deal with
ticket and for Clinton than Jesse Jackson,"
hope and Clinton's riding that wave."
WASHINGTON EDITION/LOS ANGELES TIMES
FRIDAY.
OCTOBER
30,
1992
The Importance of Being Responsible
Tuesday's vote is too crucial to be influenced by unnecessarily early network projections
Are Americans taking a renewed
That prospect, however, could be
The networks reject these urgings.
healthy interest in how they're gov-
adversely affected by the interest of
They argue that they deal in informa-
erned, and by whom? Voter registra-
the television networks in projecting
tion-in the immediate case, their
tion figures nationwide suggest that a
a winner in the presidential race.
projections of a presidential winner-
surprisingly large number are at least
That concerns officials in California,
to which the public has a timely right;
thinking seriously about going to the
Oregon and Washington, where polls
this is guaranteed by the Constitu-
polls next Tuesday. If those numbers
close as late as three hours after those
tion. But of course the issue here is
prove to accurately indicate actual
in the eastern United States. The
not censorship or any other infringe-
turnout-as we hope they do-it
Western states have joined with the
ment on the First Amendment. The
would be good news indeed.
nonpartisan Committee for the Study
issue is how the timing of the net-
Voter turnout in presidential and
of the American Electorate to ask the
works' projections of a presidential
other elections has been declining
networks not to project a presidential
winner might affect the outcome of
steadily over the last 30 years. That
winner until after 8 p.m. on the West
voting in many states.
means, bluntly, that a shrinking per-
Coast. Curtis Gans, director of the
Early projections, made while the
centage of citizens has been directly
committee, asks that nothing be done
polls in the West remain open, could
deciding who will hold office and
on Election Day "to further erode
influence the results in some con-
indirectly determining what laws are
voting and further undermine confi-
gressional and other contests by dis-
likely to be enacted, laws that will
dence in the electoral process." More
couraging turnout; even if only 1% or
affect the lives of everyone in this
than 150 members of Congress have
2% of voters decide at the last minute
country. In fact, if the trend contin-
issued a similar appeal to the heads of
to stay home because of TV forecast-
ues, before long fewer than half of
the major networks. "Every time a
ing, the outcomes in any number of
eligible voters will be going to the
network projects while citizens are
close races could be changed. The
polls. That's not a prescription for
still voting," says the congressional
networks should reconsider. What's
effective democracy. That's why the
letter, "it sends a message that the
involved here is not free speech or
prospect of a higher voter turnout
votes of those still waiting to cast
even journalistic competition, but
this year is encouraging.
their ballots do not matter."
simply responsible restraint.
Clinton Vows Better Efforts Against AIDS
red ribbons to commemorate victims of the
including breast and ovarian cancers.
Campaign: Democrat says
disease, Clinton said: "We must all remem-
During his address, Clinton paid homage
Bush has failed to fight the
ber, for all of its terror and far reach, it is
to what he called "American heroes"-
still a disease; it is not vengeance or
those battling AIDS or the human immuno-
disease strongly enough. He also
punishment or just desserts, it is an illness."
deficiency virus that causes the disease.
calls for an end to
Clinton strongly asserted that his major
Among those he cited were Elizabeth
role in the issue would be as an activist
Glaser and Bob Hattoy, who spoke about
misconceptions about the illness.
President talking about and leading the
their experiences at the Democratic Na-
fight against AIDS.
tional Convention, and their counterpart,
By CATHLEEN DECKER
"Americans are dying of the most treat-
Mary Fisher, who spoke at the Republican
TIMES POLITICAL WRITER
able affliction, ignorance, and we need to
Convention.
cure that first," he said.
He also saluted Los Angeles Lakers star
J
ERSEY CITY, N.J.-In a speech prom-
Earvin (Magic) Johnson, who recently
ised last spring and delivered five days
before the presidential election, Democrat-
T
he Arkansas governor said education
endorsed Clinton after resigning from
about AIDS should begin in the early
Bush's National Commission on AIDS.
ic nominee Bill Clinton on Thursday indict-
grades and should be "blunt and clear" in
ed the Bush Administration for failing to
tone.
mount a stringent attack against the spread
M
embers of the AIDS network were
"Children should be discouraged from
extremely enthusiastic about Clin-
of AIDS and laid out a plan he said would
having premature sexual conduct and from
ever having any conduct with needles
ton's speech.
reverse that course.
Jane Silver, policy director for the
Speaking to several hundred people in
carrying drugs, but they must be told that
American Foundation for AIDS Research,
the rotunda of the Jersey City courthouse,
this killer can kill them, and their odds of
Clinton also demanded that the American
getting it are far greater than most of them
described it as "powerful and historic."
"He said all the right things," she said.
public strip away the ignorance that sur-
think," he said.
He also suggested that those who have
"It's the first time in more than a decade of
rounds the perception of the disease.
the disease bear a responsibility to prevent
the epidemic that a national leader has
He said he would fully implement two
embraced this very difficult issue-more
existing sets of federal recommendations
its spread.
dealing with AIDS and establish a national
"There is at the beginning the matter of
than embraced it, put forward a plan to
personal responsibility." he said. "Those
fight it. We all have been asking for
educational program to battle misconcep-
tions about the illness.
who think they may be positive should be
leadership, funding and a commitment to
tested as soon as possible so they can be
end the epidemic, and that's what we heard
He pledged to increase federal funding
for research and treatment, fully imple-
treated. Those whose behavior puts them
tonight."
ment the Ryan White Health Care Act and
at a high risk should reassess that before
Dr. June Osborn, chairwoman of the
appoint one person to coordinate all federal
they put themselves and those who they
National Commission on AIDS: applatided
disease-fighting efforts.
Clinton's courage in making the speech so
"We have suii not done enough as a
Clinton chose Jersey City for his speech
close to the election.
nation to stop the spread of AIDS and to
because it has the sixth-highest rate of
"I have always considered AIDS to be
help those who are living with it." he said.
AIDS in the country. Clinton placed the
not a political issue. but a human issue,"
"Most of us have preferred to believe AIDS
AIDS crisis within the larger framework of
she said. "I am delighted to hear it
is not our problem, that it's a problem for a
the health care crisis. which he has placed
discussed at a leadership level with as high
few particular or isolated groups in our
near the top of his agenda during the
visibility as can be managed-since it
society
The truth is, it is every-
campaign.
involves us all."
body's problem."
He also said he would place more
Pointedly. before an audience that in-
emphasis than President Bush has on
Times staff writer Mariene Cimons, In Wash-
cluded those with AIDS-and others wearing
research into diseases suffered by women,
Ington, contributed to this story.
WASHINGTON EDITION/LOS ANGELES TIMES
FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30, 1992
Clinton Camp
Seeks Loan as
Funds Drop
By DOUGLAS JEHL
TIMES STAFF WRITER
The Clinton campaign is negotiating to
W
ASHINGTON-Gov. Bill Clinton's
buy costly half-hour blocks of air time
presidential campaign, running short
Monday on all three networks the evening
of its $55-million taxpayer-financed war
before the election, a step that independent
chest in the final days of the election, has
Ross Perot has also taken. An affirmative
asked the Federal Election Commission for
ruling by the FEC could make available
permission to borrow more money in
additional funds that could be devoted to
anticipation of an expected reimbursement
additional advertising.
by the U.S. Secret Service.
With $7.9 million left in its war chest, the
Such a ruling would be unprecedented,
Bush campaign sought to make the most of
and President Bush's campaign on Thurs-
the Clinton cash-flow problems, with Ma-
day night denounced the request as evi-
lek accusing the Democrat of failing his
dence that the Clinton team had misman-
"first test in managing federal funds."
aged public funds and was seeking an
Some Bush aides acknowledged private-
unfair late influx of cash to shore up its
ly that the Clinton campaign had a point in
lead.
its complaint that campaign finance regu-
"The FEC should deny this panicked
lations are skewed toward the incumbent
request for relief from profligate spending
The Bush campaign, for example, has the
by the Clinton-Gore campaign and make
use of Air Force One but need not reim-
Bill Clinton play by the rules," Bush
burse the government for many expenses
campaign manager Frederic V. Malek said
until after the election.
at an evening news conference.
By contrast, the Clinton campaign must
The Clinton campaign insisted it was
pay upfront costs for its two charter
faced with no more than a temporary
aircraft and await often belated reimburse-
cash-flow problem, and blamed its difficul-
ment from the Secret Service agents and
ties on inequities that force a challenger to
traveling press contingents.
pay upfront Secret Service costs that an
Times staff writer David Lauter contributed
incumbent never needs to bear.
"We're not running out of money,"
to this story.
Clinton chief of staff Eli Segal said by
telephone from the candidate's Little Rock,
Ark., headquarters. "We're borrowing
solely because we have not yet gotten our
reimbursements."
Under the rules, any presidential candi-
date who accepts the $55 million in federal
campaign funds, which are generated
through voluntary checkoffs on income tax
returns, must abide by strict limitations on
spending and fund raising in the general
election.
Top Bush campaign officials said that the
Clinton team had been aware of the
regulations since the start of the campaign.
A written statement issued by the Republi-
can campaign accused the Clinton camp of
"fiscal irresponsibility."
"They're broke," Malek said. "They've
run out of money. It's an embarrassment."
What is left in each campaign's coffers is
now of increasing importance, as all three
major candidates plan this weekend to
broadcast well in excess of $1 million in
advertising to sway public opinion before
voters go to the polls.
Both the Bush and Clinton camps have
already taken noticeable steps to conserve
funds for that final flurry, with the Presi-
dent's party frequently taking refuge in
inexpensive hotels while Clinton's travel-
ing band makes do with older buses and
cheaper airplane food.
WASHINGTON
EDITION/LOS
ANGELES
FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30, 1992
TIMES
Comment
A
1 this point, hard facts intrude.
The networks and some members
of Congress have insisted for years
ON ENTERTAINMENT
that the problem is not the projections
but the absence of a uniform poll
closing time nationwide. "We have
Networks
horse-and-buggy election laws in an
electronic age,' Ed Turner. CNN
executive vice president, said Thurs-
Call Election,
day.
Various plans have been advanced
and Voters Lose
to rectify the problem. but Congress
has resisted passing any. Thus the
onus of responsibility remains with
they networks.
The networks argue, correctly. that
By HOWARD ROSENBERG
there is no conclusive evidence that
projections of winners alter election
T
he major television networks
outcomes. Nor, however, is there
said today that they plan to
conclusive evidence that they don't.
project a presidential winner a
Or won't.
day before the election, eliminating the
"I know that 10,000 angels saying so
need for voters to go to the polls.
[that other elections aren't affected by
The networks hailed the move as a
early presidential projections] won't
victory for "the people's right to know
convince people in the West," Turner
the outcome of an event before it
acknowledged. But even if there is
happens."
one milliliter of doubt, that should be
Spokesmen for ABC, CBS, NBC and
justification enough for the networks
CNN brushed aside criticism of their
to hold back.
decision by saying that any attempt to
Although some would argue that
have the networks withhold data from
projections, technically speaking. are
their scientific surveys of randomly
not news, few have questioned the
selected psychics would amount to
accuracy of the exit polls on which
censorship. "We're in business to re-
they're based. And the networks will
port news, not withhold it," said one
not call presidential races in individu-
spokesman.
al states before the polls in those
Nahhhhhh.
states have closed, and will name a
Even the networks wouldn't go that
national presidential winner only
far. Yet what they do promise to
when a candidate is projected to have
do-again project a presidential victor
won enough states to earn the 270
before some states' polls close-is
electoral votes required for victory.
unpleasant enough. At the least it's a
The narrower the electoral gap, the
slower the national projections.
symbolic disenfranchising of voters in
Tuesday would not be the first time
the West and, at the most, it's an
the networks' created a controversy
intrusion that could affect the out-
come of local and state races.
by projecting a presidential winner
based on their exit poll data. As far
A possible scenario:
back as 1980, that data figured in
It's a little after 5 p.m. You're
Please see ROSENBERG, B9
preparing to leave for your polling
place to vote for one of the Top Three
when you hear an announcement on
TV that George Bush, Bill Clinton or
ROSENBERG
Ross Perot is the presidential winner.
Even if your candidate is the anointed
Continued from B8
one, your jaw still drops. It's as if
President Jimmy Carter's decision
America held an election and didn't
to concede victory to Ronald Rea-
invite you. You feel cheated, robbed,
gan 90 minutes before polls closed
as if you were sitting pretty and about
on the West Coast. And network
to bet in a high-stakes poker game
projections of Reagan's 1984 victo-
when someone reached across your
ry and George Bush's 1988 win also
shoulder and snatched your royal
flush.
preceded the closing of polls in the
West, with CBS and ABC leading
More than merely disheartening.
it's flat-out demoralizing.
the pack at 6:17 p.m. and 6:20 p.m.,
respectively, more than hour
Do you pull yourself together and
ahead of more cautious NBC and
proceed to the polls anyway SO that
CNN.
you can cast your now irrelevant vote
for President and, much more impor-
The network excuses for doing
tant, also weigh in on the two Senate
this haven't varied through the
races and numerous other important
years.
ballot choices facing you and your
"We're not in the business of
fellow Californians?
withholding news, an ABC
Or do you pack it in and stay home,
spokesperson said recently. "At
even though yours might be one of
CBS News, we don't believe in
the deciding votes in the tight Beilen-
withholding information from the
son-McClintock race in the 24th Con-
people." Dan Rather echoed this
gressional District? Or in that county
supervisor contest? Or in that city
Balderdash. These are the kind
council election in the suburb where
you live? Or in balloting for local and
of self-serving platitudes that the
state initiatives?
news media cower behind when
And if you're not voting because.
they are challenged. Actually. they
the presidential race has been called
withhold information all the time.
by the networks. how many others
They withhold the names of
are doing the same. and what cumula-
confidential sources. They with-
tive impact will that have? The com-
hold the names of juvenile offend-
mon wisdom is that small turnouts
ers. They withhold information
benefit the Republicans and large
that could endanger the national
turnouts help the Democrats. Thus.
security. They withhold the names
should early presidential projections
of rape victims. (NBC broke away
stunt voter turnout in the West, might
from the crowd on the latter in the
not other partisan contests be affect-
case of William Kennedy Smith's
ed?
accuser, but if the other networks
weren't guarding the woman's
identity then why the blue dot?)
WASHINGTON EDITION/LOS ANGELES TIMES
FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30, 1992
COLUMN UNE
China Taps
Into World
China got a $60-million, inter-
est-free World Bank loan last year
to help the urban transport system
Coffers
in Shanghai. It obtained a $162-
million loan, also interest-free, to
aid Guangdong province, China's
richest area and the fastest-grow-
The story of Beijing's
ing region in all of East Asia.
successful run on the
The United States contributes
more than any other nation, about
World Bank is a tale of
$1 billion each year, to the World
persistence (by China), of
Bank fund that makes these inter-
est-free loans.
avarice (in Western
Former U.S. Ambassador to Chi-
na Winston Lord said these World
Europe and Japan) and of
Bank loans are "an indication of
intrigue (by the Bush
business as usual between China
and the rest of the world, a testi-
Administration).
mony to China's success in having
the world overlook what it's doing
By JIM MANN
to its people."
TIMES STAFF WRITER
How did it happen?
The story of Beijing's successful
WASHINGTON-Three years
run on the World Bank is a tale of
ago, in the aftermath of the deadly
persistence and diplomatic skill
crackdown on demonstrators in
(by China), of avarice and mer-
Tian An Men Square, the United
cantilism (in Western Europe and
States and the other leading indus-
Japan) and of intrigue (by the
trialized nations organized a freeze
Bush Administration).
on international lending to China,
An investigation by The Times
cutting off Beijing's access to bil-
shows that Japanese, French, Ger-
lions of dollars in credit.
man and Italian companies pressed
Yet since then, with the quiet
their governments to make it pos-
acquiescence of the Bush Adminis-
sible for China to get World Bank
tration and the active encourage-
loans again. Beijing could then use
ment of Japan and Western Euro-
the proceeds to buy those coun-
pean countries, China has managed
tries' power plants, dams, helicop-
not only to get the money flowing
Please see CHINA, A3
again, but to increase it above the
levels that existed before 1989.
Last year, the Washington-
based World Bank lent Beijing a
stunning $2.5 billion, more than it
provided to any other nation. China
got more World Bank money than
all the countries of Eastern Europe
combined. And more than a third of
these loans were interest-free for
periods of three to four decades.
The loans-many of them from a
special World Bank fund set aside
for the poorest nations on Earth-
help to buttress the booming Chf
nese economy. While China has
enough lingering poverty to quali-
fy for the bans. its foreign-ex-
change reserves now rank among
the largest in the world, and its
economic growth rate is several
times greater than that of the
United States.
CHINA: Beijing Makes Successful Run on the World Bank
Continued from At
22% of the total.
such as the Asian Development Bank, cut
back in alone."
ters and other equipment.
European nations were willing .0 support
Under its charter, the World Bank is not
off their loans. too. Even worse, from
"Procurement won out over idealism,"
The government of then-Prime Minister
some lending to China, and the Bush
supposed to make loans-or to stop them-
China's viewpoint, Japan held up plans to
former World Bank President Barber Con-
Toshiki Kaifu pressed the World Bank to
Administration did nothing to stop them.
for political reasons. The bank's goal is to
extend a five-year, $5.6-billion package of
able Jr. said in an interview.
reopen Its financial spigots to China. And
"In 1989-90, the Americans were active-
raise living standards throughout the
The Dush Administration, facing con-
subsidized loans to China-the largest
Japan urged the Bush Administration to
ly campaigning against China," one bank
world, and its decisions are supposed to be
single source of credit available to Beijing.
gressional pressure to hold the line against
support a resumption of international
official said. "After mid-1990, 11 Ameri-
based exclusively on economic factors.
Commercial banks in Japan and other
World Bank lending to China, publicly
lending.
cans weren't saying no."
A law passed by Congress, however,
nations followed suit.
opposed most loans. But privately. the
At the time, the Bush Administration
Whenever a proposed loan reached the
requires the United States to oppose World
Beijing's propaganda apparatus was
Administration went along with the Japa-
had its own conflicting producties. For
World Bank's board, the U.S. representa-
Bank lending to any country that engages
nese and European eagerness to restore
forced to put out press releases reassuring
nearly a year, China's leading advocate of
in "a consistent pattern of gross violations
live abstained. That permitted the Bush
China's access to cheap credit. And there
the world that China would not default.
democratization, Fang Lizh, had been
of internationally recognized human
Administration to tell Congress. truthfully,
"China has always kept its debts within its
are signs that the Administration may
trapped inside the U.S. Embassy III Reijing.
rights." (An exception permits the United
that there had been no change in the U.S.
have agreed to do this in secret diplomacy
paying capacity." proclaimed one state.
He faced arrest and imprisonment if he left
States to support loans that serve "basic
stance of refusing to support: loans to
with Beijing.
ment released by the Chinese Embassy In
the embassy. but China would not let him
human needs.")
China. Yet Administration officials aban-
Washington.
Supporters of the huge World Bank
leave the country.
In the past, the United States has used
doned their previous efforts to found up
In early December. 1989, White House
lending program say that it helps to
On June 25, 1990, after two weeks of
this provision to prevent the World Bank
allied backing for a freeze on loan?
National Security Adviser Brent Scow-
alleviate poverty In China. However, crit-
intense negotiations between the Bush
U.S. officials maintain that there was
from lending money to Vietnam. Laos.
ics. both outside and Inside the Bush
croft visited Beijing to try to settle a series
Administration and China, authorities in
Chile under Gen. Augusto Pinochet and
little they could do because the Epropeans
of disputes between the United States and
Administration, believe that the huge
Beijing suddenly allowed Fang to leave
and Japanese were determined to resume
the Philippines under President Ferdinand
lending should be curtailed.
China, including World Bank lending.
their country on a U.S. military plane. And
E. Marcos.
the loans to China. "We could stomp our
Exactly what was negotiated during this
in July. at the Group of Seven's annual
Two weeks after the Tian An Men
feet, jump up and down, but it ivouldn't
"T
he repressive central government
visit remains secret. But on Jan. 10, 1990,
economic summit in Houston, the United
of China is the beneficiary and gets
Square crackdown, then-Secretary of
have made any difference," one dminis-
China agreed to lift martial law in Beijing.
States for the first time indicated that It
tration official said.
the credit" for the World Bank loans, said
State James A. Baker III, under pressure
Within hours. after a top-level meeting of
would go along with Japan's $5.6-billion
Over the following year, th World
FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30, 1992
Richard Schifter, who served as the Bush
from Congress to take action against the
Bush Administration officials, the United
package of loans to China.
Bank lent China $1.6 billion. Bank officials
Administration's assistant secretary of
Beijing regime, announced that the United
States announced what State Department
state for human rights until he resigned
States would support a freeze on all World
spokeswoman Margaret Tutwiler called
U
ntil this summit, the Administration
realized, one source said, that "a:- long as
early this year.
Bank lending to China.
had sought allied unity 111 holding the
you stay under $2 billion, no one will say
partial change in our World Bank policy."
Over the last decade, China has gar-
While the United States is the World
The Administration agreed to open the
sanctions against lending to Beijing. But in
anything." Still, the officials were careful
nered more than $13 billion in loans from
door a crack to permit World Bank loans
Houston, Bush told reporters that Japan
to approve only those loans that could be
Bank's largest shareholder, it cannot by
the World Bank, nearly $6 billion of them
designed to address China's "basic human
"is a sovereign nation that can make up its
portrayed as contributing to Chir #'s eco-
Itself ensure a cutoff in lending. Each
nomic reforms.
Interest-free.
nation on the bank's board casts votes in
needs." China and World Bank officials
own mind on a lot of questions.
They
The World Bank was set up in 1945 to
proportion to its financial contributions.
rushed to win approval of loans that could
work very cooperatively with us, but
Finally. in the summer of 1991, World
raise the living standards of developing
be termed humanitarian in nature, such as
sometimes they have interests (of their
Bank and Chinese officials found the
countries by helping them gel capital.
I
n July, 1989. at a summit meeting of the
those for earthquake relief.
own) that prevail."
perfect project with which to bre open
world's seven leading industrial democ-
At the same time, Bush and other G-7
what remained of the allied structions
Some of the bank's loans are made at
racies in Paris, Western European nations
S
till, the United States and its allies
normal market rates but with longer
leaders opened the way for broader World
against lending.
and Japan agreed to follow the U.S. lead,
periods of repayment than ordinary com-
continued to oppose any other kind of
Bank lending to China by suggesting that
China had applied for a World Ba, k loan
assuring a halt in all lending to China.
mercial loans.
lending. The result was that In the year
loans would not, in the future, have to be
to build a hydroelectric dam and under-
These so-called G-7 nations (the United
But other World Bank loans-those
after the Beijing massacre, China received
exclusively for humanitarian purposes.
ground power station in Sichuan pr. vince.
States, Japan, Britain, France, Germany,
about $600 million in new loans from the
Baker said the seven nations would ex-
Called the Ertan Dam, the project is one of
made by the International Development
Italy and Canada) control more than 50%
World Bank, a little more than a quarter of
the largest of its kind in the world.
Assn.-are interest-free for periods of 35
plore whether they might approve World
of the vote for World Bank loans.
to 40 years. The borrowers must merely
the amount it had originally expected.
Bank loans "that would contribute to the
It was an energy project, hard to Charac.
Conable, the World Bank president, was
pay a small service fee of 0.25% to 0.75%
Chinese leaders were angry about the
reform of the Chinese economy."
terize as promoting economic refor, n. But
furious. "They (China) were important: To
continuing Western clampdown. "They
per year.
Were these changes the result of a deal?
from the standpoint of World Banh poli-
begin with, they owed us more than $10
WASHINGTON EDITION/LOS ANGELES TIMES
These IDA loans are designed for coun-
wouldn't talk to us for quite a while," one
Did China agree to set Fang free in
tics, it had another virtue. "The general
billion," said Conable, a former Republican
senior Bush Administration official said.
exchange for an easing of U.S. opposition
contractor was German, and the two
tries where per capita income is less than
congressman and an associate of Bush. If
As the first anniversary of the Tian An
$610 a year. China, with a per capita
to World Bank and Japanese loans to
subcontractors were French and Italian,"
the World Bank cut off future loans to
Men Square crackdown neared, Chinese
Income of only $370, is one of about 40
China? Was Fang. in effect. a hostage who
Conable said.
China, it would be putting its existing loans
diplomats enlisted the powerful support of
was ransomed for billings of dollars in
nations that qualify for IDA funding. But
in jeopardy.
W
(th strong European support. the
one country, Japan.
loans to China?
its robust economy and financial stability
Moreover, Conable said, the credit
World Bank approved a $387-mil-
The $5.6 billion in loans that Japan froze
also qualify it to obtain other World Bank
Asked whether there Was an agreement,
freeze seemed to confirm the worst fears of
lion loan. Within weeks. a smiling Chinese
in 1989 was to have been devoted to more
one senior Bush Administration official
financing that most IDA loan recipients are
Third World nations-that the World
Premier LI Peng signed contracts for work
than 40 major projects inside China for the
Ineligible to receive.
replied "I don't really want to Rel into that
Bank is an imperialist institution. "I didn't
on the project with the French, German
construction of railroads, harbors and
"It's not as though China were a classic
stuff. You can use the Inkage in time
and Italian companies.
want to have a picture drawn for develop-
power stations. Japanese companies were
lesser-developed country with no trained
between China's release of Fang and the
Ing countries of an institution that was run
Once the Ertan Dam money was ap-
supposed to get roughly half the contracts
restoration of its loans| as your hook."
personnel and no ability to do things on its
by the major powers."
proved, World Bank officials knew that all
for these projects.
Another senior official inststed that there
own," one Administration official said.
The World Bank's cutoff devastated
restraints on lending to China had been
Without new credit, China could not buy
"They could borrow on private markets at
was no explicit deal but acknowledged that
China's ability to borrow money abroad.
removed. And over the last year., they
Japanese goods and equipment or service
setting Fang free removed an "irritant"
reasonable rates. What they getting is
The World Bank had lent It $1.3 billion in
have broken all records in clearing new
its debt on Japanese loans. "The Japanese
cheaper financing."
between China and the West that paved
the year before the 1989 crackdown and
credit for Beijing.
suppliers wanted to go back in [to Chinal,"
the way for new loans to China.
The world's wealthiest nations give the
"As it turned out," one Western official
was planning to lend about $2.3 billion in
one source at the World Bank said. "But
After the Houston summit, World Bank
World Bank the money for the interest.
the 1989-90 fiscal year.
involved in the three-year dispute over
there was a public-opinion problem in
free loan program. The U.S. share is about
officials handling loans 10 China noticed a
Other International lending institutions,
loans to Beijing said, "China's business was
Japan. The Japanese didn't want to go
dramatic change. Japan as well as Western
too good to keep away from."
WASHINGTON
EDITION/LOS
ANGELES
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
TIMES
PERSPECTIVE ON ROSS PEROT
A Loose Cannon From Dallas
know that revelation of the
Regan memo said. "I said North prob-
A Reagan White House
letter would have been ex-
ably despaired of [House Speaker| Tip
memo shows him acting
ceedingly damaging in late
O'Neill ever bringing up legislation for
1986 to Reagan. who was
Contra aid so he was willing to try
as middleman during
emphatically denying any
anything to keep a band of raggedy-ass
the Iran-Contra
personal knowledge of ran-
Contras in the jungle. I reminded Ross
som efforts for hostages.
that they were both Annapolis gradu-
investigations.
As I assessed it two years
ates. He said he knew this."
ago (talk about bad judg-
The Iran-Contra investigators further
By SEYMOUR M. HERSH
ment). Perot seemed an odd
learned that Perot had been in direct
number who-could it be?-
contact with a group of high-ranking
W
hat frightens me about Ross
somehow was unable to comprehend the
retired admirals raising funds for Poin-
Perot as President IS not that
inappropriateness of his actions; Reagan
dexter's legal defense and suspected that
he takes foolish. and even
was out of office: nobody cared much
Pero: had offered to contribute heavily
bizarre. steps to protect his family from
anyway about Iran-Contra. and so I
to Poindexter's defense if he would
mythical threats. but that there is direct
dropped any mention of his involvement
insulate the President. Retired Rear
evidence that SIX years ago he interject-
in my New York Times Magazine article.
Adm. C. A (Mark) Hill Jr.. long-time
ed humself inappropriately. and perhaps
which was highly critical of the way the
Poindexter colleague and coordinator of
illegally. into one of the nation's most
congressional committees did their job.
his defense fund. subsequently con-
serious crises: Iran-Contra. He may not
Here's what should have written:
firmed the quid pro quo of Perot's
have even known what he was doing.
The Iran-Contra investigators had a
offer-that Perot would "pay for all of
My Perot story begins two years ago.
different interpretation of Perot's action
John's legal defense and a lifetime
While researching a magazine article on
that was triggered by their sense of the
income if he would go testify-do the
the Iran-Contra scandal, I learned that
possible illegalities of the ransom effort
cover-up-without taking the Fifth."
some investigators on the Senate and
as well as the previously unpublished
Hill said the offer was rejected out of
House Iran-Contra committees were
contemporary office notes of Donald T.
hand.
convinced that Perot had offered hush
Regan. Reagan's chief of staff. The notes
It was after the contact with Perot.
money in what they thought was an
showed that Regan had been assured by
Hill said, that he and others intensified
attempt to cover up his
their fund raising on be-
and President Reagan's
half of the admiral. "The
activities on behalf of
SAYAM!
purpose was to preclude
the hostages.
a flag officer from being
The committees had
CAVALRY
in the pocket of Perot If
evidence. which still has
HAS
you've got a string on
not been made public,
AERRIVED!
him with your money,
showing that Perot had
you've got a control.
offered in December.
Perot maintains his only
1986-at the height of
goal was to protect the
interest in the scandal-
honor of the uniform.
to pay legal fees for the
Poindexter did not re-
two key witnesses, Adm.
turn calls on the-issue
John M. Poindexter and
this week. but North
LL Col. Oliver L North.
graphically described a
if they would protect the
Perot hush-money offer
President by not testify-
in his 1991 autobiogra-
ing truthfully. The
phy. "Under Fire." He
wrote that Perot visited
package included pro-
viding for their families
him and his attorney.
Brendan V. Sullivan Jr.,
if they were given jail
terms and helping them
in Washington and said:
find new careers.
"Why doesn't Ollie just
I interviewed Perot at
explain to the FBI
VOTE
that the President didn't
the time and he was, as
BOSS
know? If he goes to jail.
he appears on television,
PEROT
I'll take care of his fami-
seemingly honest and to
ly. And I'll be happy to
the point. What he said,
give him a job when he
however. was nonsensi-
cal and contradicted by
gets out" Perot later
denied the North-Sulli-
evidence.
van account
Told of the commit-
The committee was
tees' suspicions, Perot
almost easually admitted making the
Perot that Poindexter would not damage
especially interested in Perot's involve-
payment offers to North and Poindexter,
the President, according to Pamela J.
ment in the operation for which his aide
but insisted he did so solely in an effort
Naughton. a former assistant U.S. at-
received a presidential note of safe
to get out the full story: "I went to both
torney in San Diego then investigating
conduct-a poorly conceived North hos-
men and told them that if they tell the
the suspected White House cover-up.
tage ransom operation in the Middle
truth. I'd pay all their legal expenses and
Naughton this week recalled that
East involving two agents of the Drug
see that they got jobs. I thought it looks
Regan's notes showed that Perot tele-
Enforcement Administration "There's
terrible for two military officers to take
phoned Regan pn Dec. 14. 1986-three
no question." Naughton recalled. "that
the Fifth Amendment."
weeks after the scandal became public-
the DEA operation was illegal." The
and told him that he (Perot) was in
White House had made no attempt to
Perot said his offers of support were
based on the belief that "everybody
contact with Poindexter's people and
get a formal presidential finding for the
knew what was going on" and the future
had this message for the President:
covert operation, as required by law, nor
of the President "was not at issue. It's a
Poindexter will testify that the Presi-
was there any legal basis for using
dumb thing." he added. "I couldn't
dent did not know of the diversion.
private funds for an American intelli-
Regan subsequently dictated a care-
gence operation. Perot also had a motive
figure out why telling the truth would
hurt the presidency."
fully written memorandum for the re-
for covering up his action. Naughton
In the same interview, however. Perot
cord about the Perot call. in which he
added: "He had conspiracy exposure on
made clear why the truth would have
said that he had listened to Perot's offer
the money issue. If give my money to a
been devastating to President Reagan.
to pay all of North's and Poindexter's
federal agent to investigate you. that's a
He revealed, again almost casually, that
legal bills and responded that he "could
crime."
Reagan had provided Jay Coburn, a
not be part of any such thing." Regan
Naughton is still convinced that a
close Perot aide, with a letter of safe
further quoted Perot as saying that "all
cover-up prosecution of Perot was a
conduct before the aide flew to Europe
he wants to do is get the facts out and go
possibility. The essential question re-
on with the business of governing."
mains: Did Perot believe he was doing
in 1985 with $2 million of Perot's money
for use as ransom in a highly secret
The unpublished memorandum-
the right thing in whisking up to
which I obtained only this week and
Washington and saying whatever he
White House operation to rescue Ameri-
cans held in Lebanon. an operation
which was not available to the Iran-
said to North. Poindexter and Regan? He
Contra committees-showed. however,
is a man not bothered by. not even
deemed illegal by the Iran-Contra com-
mittees. "The letter was in case Coburn
that Regan and Perot understood that
aware of, what he does not know. even
was stopped going through Customs
North and Poindexter had no intention
when the gravest of constitutional and
carrying that much cash, And Perot
of hurting *: rident "I the
presidential crises are at-stake I don't
John Poindexter would like to say, he
want his finger on the button.
added in his cryptic fashion. "I don't
think it was signed by automatic pen."
didn't investigate the situation and
Seymour M. Hersh is a Pulitzer Prize-
It was mind-boggling. Perot had to
didn't tell the President about it." the
winning investigative reporter
WASHINGTON EDITION/LOS ANGELES TIMES
FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30. 1992
Bush Greeted
by Applause-
and Challenges
By JAMES GERSTENZANG
TIMES STAFF WRITER
GRAND RAPIDS, Mich.-As
BUSH:Cheers,
George Bush grinds his way to the
Why Clinton Is Still the Favorite
election now four days away. he
revels in the wild enthusiasm of
Challenges
I by 2 points. 7 points
6 Bill Clinton abead
WASH
the crowds he encounters and in
or 10 points? Over the
11
results from some polls indicating
Greet Him
past few days, polls
MONTANA
NORTH
HJL-4
ME
have diverged on the
OREGON
3
DAKOTA-3
MINN.
that the race is tightening.
\VT/
size of Clinton's
7
10
IDAHO
SOUTH
WIS.
MASS.
The President was pumped up.
national lead in the
DAKOTAS
11
422
Continued from A1
WYDLENG
MICH
giddy and even giggling at one
popular vote over
a
NEVADA
KWA
18
RJ-4
Bush said his views on abortion
NEBRASKA
point Thursday as he struggled
7
PA. 23
COMNL-1
had evolved over the years-he
President Bush and
UTAH
ILL
8
OHIO
-NJ-15
inexplicably to keep a straight face
supported abortion rights until
Ross Perot. But
COLORADO
22
12
21
DEL. 3
state-by-state
CALIF.
RANGAS
MO.
MD.-
1980. when Ronald Reagan chose
5/12-19
while attacking Democratic nomi-
54
6
surveys of the
11
KY-E
him as his running mate. Compro-
nee Bill Clinton's draft record. He
electoral vote show
N.C.14
mise over military programs was
ARIZONA
OKLA
TENN.
necessary to work with Congress.
that Bush still must
NEW
.
ARK.
S.C.
referred to the Democratic ticket
MEXICO
G
as "two bozos" and scorned the
Bush said, and the agriculture
thread the eye of
MISS
ALA
subsidies were necessary to per-
the needie to win
7
GEORGIA
TEXAS
LA.
13
"faithless Republicans and faith-
suade Europe to drop Its own farm
reelection.
32
less Democrats who wrote me off
a:d. But the question brought back
ALASKA
FLA
into focus the scrutiny the voters
25
two months ago.'
are giving the candidates-and the
Where candidate
But then, every once in a while,
skepticism they have brought to
HAWAII
he runs smack into reality-that
the presidential campaign
leads above the margin
In the final days of Bush's re.
Clinton ahead in 24 states: To win
of orror in the most recently published
cold shower of a sharp-edged
election drive it is just such ques-
the White House, a candidate
state poll-and number of electoral votes
question from a would-be voter,
tions that bring reminders of the
needs 270 electoral votes: the
Gray: Where neither candidate
political reality that has stalked
candidate who receives the most
White:
Black:
reminding him that in what he
holds a lead above the margin
um for months: He has trailed
votes in a state gets all that state's
Clinton
Bush
of error. or polls conflict.
calls this "weird" election year, it
Clinton in the polls throughout a
electoral votes, regardless of his
has become socially acceptable to
general election campaign shaped
margin. In the latest compilation
use the President of the United
by the sour economy and the
of state surveys by the Hotline, an
Warning: This data comes with
The challenge for Bush: But
equally sour mood among voters.
electronic newsletter, Clinton
some bright red caution flags. The
those caveats don't change the
States as a verbal punching bag.
While some polls-those of The
holds a lead outside of the polls'
quality of state polls varies
fundamental challenge for Bush
He spent an hour chatting up
Times and the Washington Post
margin of error in 24 states and
considerably; and the Hotline
To catch Clinton. the President
mong them-have found Clinton
viewers of CBS' "This Morning"-
the District of Columbia with 274
notes that the surveys in 32 states
must win almost all of the
langing on to a roughly 10-point
electoral votes-enough to win on
are at least a week old-and thus
battleground states-from Texas.
and appreciatively sighed when a
ead among likely voters, others,
Tuesday. Bush holds a clear lead
do not reflect the narrowing of
Louisiana and Florida in the
woman caller from Blue Bell, Pa.,
acluding CNN's daily survey, pic-
in only three states. with a total 14
the race over the past week. The
South. to New Jersey and
ure the race as much closer. down
told him: "I want to say how much
electoral votes. Perot leads in no
fact that both Clinton and Bush,
Michigan in the North-and
Da 3-point margin.
states. In the remaining states,
for example. are devoting 80 much
reclaim at least some states now
respect you have here."
either no candidate holds a lead
A
nd suddenly the Bush effort
time to Ohio this week suggests it
believed to be leaning toward
But then came the cold water: A
has come together: Crowds
greater than the margin of error in
may be closer than the roughly
Clinton. such 28 Georgia and
questioner demanded to know why
re flocking to arenas, and a hard-
the most recent surveys or polls
10-point advantage two surveys
Ohio.
conflict.
Bush's own character shouldn't be
harging, determined President is
gave the Democrat this week.
tsponding, spicing his comments
Source: The
called into question, citing the
ith the sort of Bush-isms that
President's change-of-position on
and grammarians and other lovers
Los Angeles Times
abortion rights, his new support for
the English language into fits.
nd he and his staff, which is
military weapons programs he
gumentatively citing the more
once shunned and his boost of
vorable public opinion surveys,
agriculture subsidies, despite hav-
e insisting that regardless of
rlier polls and how the campaign
ing criticized European govern-
paraged them. the country. is
ments for price supports.
med for a Bush victory.
Please see BUSH, A7
The President's focus Thursday
$ on the mostly white suburban
ghborhoods that ring Detroit.
on the Republican enclave of
Grand Rapids in western Michigan.
Former President Gerald R. Ford.
who represented the Grand Rapids
area for 251/2 years in Congress.
campaigned at his side. So did actor
Bruce Willis.
The visit evoked memories of a
race the Republicans don't like to
use as a parallel for the 1992
campaign: Ford's 1976 race against
another Democrat and son of the
South. Jimmy Carter. That was the
last presidential campaign a Re-
publican lost. The margin was
roughly 2%. or 2 million votes.
And like the current effort. it was
directed by James A. Baker III.
Bush's chef of staff.
-I remember 16 years ago when I
had a contest with a Southern
governor running around the
country calling for change. change.
The voters in a very close election
decided they wanted the change."
Ford said. "They ended up with a
liberal Democratic Administration
liberal Congress of the United
States and after four years of
BERNIE BOSTON La Angeles Tumes
change what did they get? Thir-
President Bush and actor Bruce Willis campaign at a community college in Warren, Mich.
teen percent inflation. 21% interest
rates and a misery index [the
combination of inflation and unem-
"Listen to Gov. Clinton and
ployment) of 20. an all-ume high."
inflation were to reach the level it
Ozone Man' -Bush said. using his
"Absolutely essential," IS the way
In Warren. Mich.. the heart of
attained when Carter was Presi-
newly hatched name for Tennessee
the President put it.
Macomb County. Bush shouted his
dent. "milk. which costs. what.
And while the President worked
Sen. AJ Gore. Clinton's running
way through a rally in a gymnasi-
$2.70. would be $8.23. Bread. 84
mate. who has written a book on
the crowd in Macomb County.
um of the county community col-
cents. would be up about $2.50.*
Clinton addressed a lunchtime ral-
the environment. "This guy 15 so
lege.
far off in the environmental ex-
The virtually all-white. and
A tential judicial appointments,
nd. questioning Clinton's po-
ly about 15 miles away in down-
town Detroit.
treme. we'll be up to our neck in
largely blue-collar. suburb north-
owls and out of work for every
he said Clinton has made "a terri-
east of Detroit IS crucial to the
Meanwhile. Bush campaign
American. This guy's crazy. He IS
ble threat-he says he wants to put
President's hopes for carrying
spokeswoman Tone Clarke said
way out. far OUL Far out, man."
Mary Cuomo. Mano Cuomo, on the
Michigan's 18 electoral votes-out
the President was experiencing a
The race. he says over and over,
Supreme Court."
of the 270 needed for election-on
surge of support not only in Micht-
is about "experience. philosophy.
Tuesday. It 15 home to many SO-
"You talk about disaster-that
gan. but in such other battleground
and. yes. character. character.
called Reagan Democrats. who
"My dog Millie knows more
would be it." Bush said of the
states as Wisconsin. Ohio and New
deserted their party in presidential
about foreign affairs than these
prospects of the New York gover-
Jersey. and in Georgia-all states
elections C: 27 the last 12 years.
nor joining the high court.
the President swep: four years ago
two bocos. Bush said. "It's cracy."
-To 3 cheering. sign-waving
Days after Check answered a
Michigan :5 one of the toss-up
She also said that Reagan will
throne arrayed before him on a
questioner wordering :f be knew
states that both campaigns consid-
campaign for his former vice pres:
basketball Court. Bush said that
the cost of such consumer goods as
er important-more so for Bush in
dent over the weekend. spraking a
between ::: and Claim. ":
= and (MATE :: raiting off
the face of afficult going = such
= Ninth Carrina and MA
differences . night and day."
current prices. 3.4. said that If
states as California and New York
staty. Georgia
CLINTON: Appeals to Traditional Democrats in Push for Votes
Continued from A1
"The American people see him
Until recently. the candidate had
together the more liberal residents
for what he is, a desperate person
spent much of his time in Republi-
of urban Detron and the more
who just wants to hold power and
can areas, in states that have been
conservative suburbanites who
doesn't give a rip for them," he said
the GOP's domam in recent elec-
had fled the city.
in Toledo, Ohio.
tions, zinging the President and
First he said that auto workers
Clinton has been aggrieved for
hoping to peel off Bush's support
should not pay heed to Bush's
days because of Bush campaign
with a message pitched to moder-
contention that he and his running
advertisements that the Arkansas
ates.
mate, Sen. Ai Core of Tennessee,
governor says distort his record at
But on Thursday, it was back to
would invoise environmental
home and his proposals for the
the constituencies that have his-
standards this would ravage the
nation. At one point Thursday. he
torically proved loyal to Demo-
blue-collar industry. Then he di-
maligned the President and said
crats-the urbanites.
rected his message to nearby sub-
that he would "slam him home" in
"You see all these pundits talk-
urban Macomb County, where
the days before Tuesday's vote.
Ing about how this election is
Bush campaigned on Thursday.
"He has put on ads all over
gonna come out? What they're
"Mr. Bush/Will go to Macomb
America that are lies," Clinton said,
really saying 18 the young won't
County today to tell those people
early in the day. "The man has no
really vote, the working poor won't
that I'm not their kind of person,"
core of conviction. This is not
really vote, the blue-collar people
he said. "I 1'01 a lot more in
Harry Truman."
will get divided and distracted
common with the people of Ma-
Both Clinton and Bush have
People will give up on their fu-
comb County, than George Bush
been competing as inheritors of
ture," Clinton told several thou-
ever had."
Truman's legacy throughout the
sand people gathered in Detroit's
general election campaign.
Cobo Hall for a gel-oul-the-vote
linton commonly expresses
rally.
A
Hhough he displayed no overt
faith that he will win the
There, Clinton turned to a sym-
nervousness about the polls
election by professing that he IS on
showing the presidential contest to
bol of the civil rights movement,
"the right side of history." that the
FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30, 1992
be suddenly tight, Clinton ac-
Rosa Parks, to plead his case.
vast changes that have taken place
knowledged Bush as a threat and
"We must vote in large numbers
in the world ince the Cold War
independent Ross Perot as an un-
In order to make the great changes
ended represe sterling oppor-
predictable factor in the race.
needed in our country today." said
tunity for a De hocrat.
the woman who helped fuel the
"Anytime you're an incumbent
On Thursday. however, he tried
President and you just don't have
battle for civil rights when. 37
to use history in a more specific
years ago, she refused to take a
any standards, you have a chance
way. In Michigan, he recalled the
Associated Press
seat in the back of a bus. "We
to win. especially when Mr. Perot
words of Robert F. Kennedy. as-
Gov. Bill Clinton gives a thumbs-up sign during an appearance at the University of Toledo in Ohio.
cannot afford to continue to be in
is spending anything to get elect-
sassinated in 1968 as he sought the
ed." he said.
the condition that we are in.
Democratic presidential nomina-
He added: "We're going to win
Clinton opened his day at the
Clinton, coming to the podium a
personal Income," he said. "So
tion. And in Toledo, the words he
anything could ever
this election. I have always
University of Toledo, where he
few minutes later. paid tribute to
when Mr. Bush tells us that we
quoted were from-another Demo-
The governor took pains to de-
thought I was the underdog, but
accused Bush of "an abject denial
should rejoice in our economic
Parks and said her experience
crat who won tight presidential
fend himself against Bush's criti-
of responsibility" in handling the
-should serve "to remind us that we
I'm going to keep fighting."
plight, I think we have to tell him
race, John F. Kennedy.
cisms, specifically a charge by the
At railles in Toledo, Detroit and
nation's affairs. Most of his dis-
are one people
it's time to move beyond the pas-
that we must go
In the last week of the 1960
President that Clinton's call for
Jersey City, N.J., Clinton played
course dealt with the economy. in
forward together or we will sink
sivity and complacency of his pres-
election, Clin onesaid, Kennedy
"change" would leave only that-
divided."
the underdog card with abandon
keeping with his campaign's belief
Idency and his campaign,
asked voters to cast their ballots
change-in American pocket-
while steering clear of the rancor-
that a continual drumming of the
Among some Democrats, Clin:
"A President: who asks us to
based not just on the candidates,
books.
ously personal tone of his earlier
President on that subject will pay
settle for less can't bring out the
ton's strategy of focusing on sub-
but on their personal concerns:
"It's a funny line. but 11 len't
comments.
big rewards.
urban voters had been seen as
best in us." Clinton continued "A
"I believe we want leaders to
true," Clinton said. "I wouldn't do
As for his proposals for America,
He roundly belittled Bush's
risky in the event of a close
President who's out of touch with
challenge us, not just make up
WASHINGTON EDITION/LOS ANGELES TIMES
that."
Clinton hewed to the relatively
praise of positive economic statis-
the people can't take charge of our
race-as this one may be. Under
charges at election time," Clinton
tics released earlier this week.
For the Democratic campaign,
cautious course he has plied re-
that thinking, Clinton must now
future. And when Mr. Bush looks
said. "I believe that we want to be
cently; a long-awaited speech on
"In this Administration, for the
turnout increasingly looms large as
hope that the traditional Demo:
at an anxious and frightened
told again that the only limit on
AIDS Thursday night in New Jer-
first time since before World War
a key to victory In Tuesday's
crats from whom he has distanced
America and tells us that is as good
what we can to IS what we are
election. It also accounts for the
II, you have a decline in jobs in the
himself will turn out in droves to
sey was a compilation of previously
as it gets, that says something
willing to ask of ourselves, and
subtle change in strategy by Clin-
vote for him.
announced proposals.
private sector and a decline in
worse about his presidency than
what our. leaders are willing to
ton.
On Thursday. he tried, to knil
insist on of theirselves."
Clinton Plays
Underdog, Calls
for Big Turnout
By CATHLEEN DECKER
TIMES POLITICAL WRITER
DETROIT-Democrat Bill Clin-
ton, his longtime edge in the presi-
dential race perhaps ebbing. played
on the imagery of the underdog
Thursday as he sought to ensure
the big turnout that could be
crucial to his success.
He labored across Ohio, Michi-
gan and New Jersey-on the tradi-
tional stomping grounds of Demo-
crats-calling on the image of the
Kennedys and all but begging vot-
ers to come to the polls.
"As we come to the end of this
campaign, I ask you to choose
to change the world we have. to
have the courage to say we can do
better, to reject the politics of
denial, division and blame which
the Bush Administration has visit-
ed on this country long enough,"
he said in Detroit, where a multira-
cial audience applauded loudly.
While he visited strongly Demo-
cratic areas-a departure from his
campaign pattern in recent
weeks-Clinton was eyeing warily
the apparent narrowing of his lead
over President Bush in some public
opinion surveys.
As he had on Wednesday. Clin-
ton at times lashed out angrily at
Bush. But his approach was two-
pronged: In his public rallies
Thursday, Clinton delivered som-
ber and high-minded rhetoric, out-
lining with deliberation his policy
differences with the incumbent.
But in casual comments to re-
porters, Clinton issued stinging
criticisms of Bush. In sharply per-
sonal tones, Clinton all but accused
Please see CLINTON, A5
Bush of lying.
A Vote for Bush and GOP Is a Wasted Vote, Perot Contends
Campaign: In broadcast interview, he also defends
recession is here. If you lived in
Center near San Jose.
his controversial charges that the Republicans were
that insulated bubble they've cre-
Perot, who is third in the polls.
ated for the President, you
has Indicated that he is counting on
plotting a dirty tricks campaign against him.
wouldn't know Iteither."
a higher than normal turnout of
Earlier In the day, the Perot
new voters to give him an unex-
FRIDAY.
here.'
By SARA FRITZ
campaign issued a statement
pected boost on Election Day. AI-
TIMES STAFF WRITER
While Perot leveled equal criti-
charging that the news media is
though some polls show the race
FOR:
clam at both Bush and Democratic
unfairly portraying the 1992 presi-
tightening between Clinton and
D
ALLAS-Independendent preai-
challenger Gov. Bill Clinton on
dential election as & contest strictly
Bush, Clay Mulford, Perot's son-
dential candidate Ross Perot,
some issues and refused to say
between Bush and Clinton.
in-law and campaign counse), said
expressing particular disdain for
which of the two men he would
Perot's press secretary. Sharon
11 is Perot's judgment that "it's
President Bush and the Republican
favor. he clearly reserved his
Holman, also blamed Bush, Clinton
impossible for Bush to win."
Party. said Thursday night that
harshest comments for Bush and
and news reporters for causing his
Bush dismissed the charge as
people who support the incumbent
the GOP.
Independent campaign to become
TIMES
are wasting their vote because
"He's history," Perot declared,
mired In a controversy over Perot's
"crazy" and White House Press
Bush cannot win reelection.
referring to the President. "The
allegations about GOP dirty tricks.
Secretary Marlin Fitzwater said it
Appearing on CNN's "Larry
people who are voting for him are
"In the past week." Holman said,
proved that Perot is "paranoid."
Holman did not say who she
King Live," Perol also defended his
wasting their votes. I'm say-
"we have been forced to respond to
ANGELES
controversial charges that the Re-
Ing, don't throw your vote away.
planted stories that have been
thought had planted this alory with
publicans last summer were plot-
He indicated that he was simply
apparently planted by the opposi-
the news media.
ting a dirty tricks campaign to
responding in kind to Bush's state-
Lion and have deflected us away
Holman cited a number of in-
wiretap his telephones and embar-
ment that anyone who voted for
from what we think are the major
stances In recent days In which the
rass his daughter, Carolyn.
Perot would be wasting a vote.
Issues of this campaign and the
news media had falled to mention
"Is " unthinkable that these
Perot also took a jab at Bush for
issues that are important to the
Perot in discussing the election.
people in the Republican Party
failing to recognize the seriousness
American people.'
In particular. she objected to a
might do it?" he asked. "This is the
of the recession earlier this year.
In an effort to redirect the media
graphic used by Dan Rather on the
same party that gave us Water-
Bush contends that the economy is
focus, Perot will embark Saturday
"CBS Evening News" that referred
gate. This is the same party that
not as bad as many people think.
on a two-day, three-state cam-
only to Bush and Clinton. She also
gave us Iran-Contra. This is the
"Folks who didn't finish high
paign swing through Florida, Kan-
mentioned a straw poll ballot ap.
party that's up to its ears in
school. they've already figured out
sas and California. On Sunday, he
parently sent to schoolchildren by
Associated
Iraq-gate now. This is the same
what the problem is," Perot said.
will appear at railies at the Long
Time Inc. that did not list Perot's
group that's always hands off, Gee,
"Belleve me, everybody out there
Beach Arena, beginning at 2 p.m.,
name. The ballot listed Bush, Clin-
Ross Perot talks to supporters as he arrives at CNN In Vashington on
we didn't do it.' Sdthere's a pattern
except the White House knows the
and the Santa Clara Convention
ton and "other."
Thursday night for an interview on the "Lany Kink Live' show.
EDITION/LOS
ANGELES
TIMES
FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30. 1992
Perot Follows His Hunches
ASHINGTON-Why did he
do
With Mixed Results
Ross Perot lef: behind one of the
endoring mystems of the 1992
campaign this week when he
charged that Republican dirty
tricks airned at his family and
business forced him out of the
In their place is a small staff of
presidential race last July. He says
inexperienced aides. Most do not
he made the exploye charges only
seem to even talk regularly with
gadfly with low credibility. as the
because he was forced to respond
Perot. much less give him advice.
basis for his allegations of GOP
to media inquiries
At a recent press briefing. Orson
dirty tricks.
But some people who know the
Swindle. director of Perot's United
Don Hewitt. executive producer
cancidate say that in this extraor-
We Stand organization. was asked
of "60 Minutes," said that. when
dinary move they saw Perot play.
what Perot thought of Gov. Bill
Perot urged him to check out his
ing roles he has taken on again and
Clinton's 1969 trip to Moscow.
allegations of Republican plotting.
again in his career: Perot the
Swindle responded by asking the
Perot cited a videotape of Barnes
Hunch-Player. Perot the Vigilant
reporters in the crowd whether
and Bush's Texas campaign chief.
Protector, Perol the Crusader.
Perot had made any comment on
James Oberwetter. apparently
The billionaire Texan. they say,
the trip.
having an amiable conversation on
is a man who has forever ignored
One member of the Perot circle
a park bench as his "single most
others' advice to follow his gut
this week confessed his nervous-
damaging piece of evidence."
feelings-often to glory. sometimes
ness at Perot's lack of outside
"Here's something intriguing
to disaster. Perot is a shrewd
input "I don't think he asked
about Perot's personality: He's this
anybody about this last decision,"
very shrewd person. this very
NEWS ANALYSIS
the friend said.
shrewd businessman." said Mason.
The dirty tricks charges resur-
the author. "Yet there are times
businessman who is nonetheless
rected the old assertions that Perot
when he proves to be so na-
is a paranoiac or a wild man. "A
ive
He can be had surpris-
highly credulous when it comes to
threats against his family and him-
hand grenade with 2 bad haircut,"
ingly easily."
former White House speech writer
But Perot's anxieties may not
self.
have been his only reason for
And he is a man who is always
wanting to publicize his anxieties
eager to convince the world-and
Peggy Noonan called him.
about Republican dirty tricks.
perhaps himself-that he is follow-
But even people who dispute
Since he re-entered the race.
ing the best of motives as he
charges that Perot is paranoid
Perot and his aides had continued
struggles in a glorious and danger-
acknowledge that he is so sensitive
to search for a satisfactory way to
ous cause.
to threats that he is willing to listen
Last week. those tendencies
explain the departure that had
to wild-sounding accusations from
broken the hearts of so many of his
combined to persuade Perot to
quarters that others would dismiss
followers.
finally go public with reports he
out of hand.
A smorgasbord of explanations
had heard about Republican plans
This is partly because billion-
has been offered Perot preferred
to disrupt his daughter's wedding
aires are people who must spend
to wait until he was on all 50 state
and wiretap his offices. By doing
much of their time fending off
ballots: he wanted to junk his
so, he could help build his growing
those who would separate them
useless campaign staff: he needed
momentum, show the malicious-
from their money-through fraud-
to short-circuit the attacks from
ness of his foe and finally give
ulent business deals. dubious char-
the press and the opposition and to
supporters a more convincing-
ities, even outright theft. "He's got
reposition himself for a splashy fall
and nobler-explanation of why he
to keep his guard up," one friend
abandoned their cause for 11
re-entry.
said.
But as press interviews with
weeks
As aides have noted, there is
alienated ex-followers have con-
"He has a champion complex."
some objective reason for Perot to
tinued to demonstrate. none of
says Todd Mason. author of "Perot
fear the Republicans. They. after
An Unauthorized Biography." "He
these had completely washed away
all. were the party of Watergate.
wants to lead"x disenfranchised
the quitter stigma that Perot may
This year. they were the ones who
group to prosperity and vanquish
have feared would follow his name
evidently rifled the State Depart-
an uncaring bureaucracy that's
into the Encyclopaedia Britannica.
ment files of Clinton's mother. And
With the dirty tricks story. Perot
trying to keep them down."
This year's campaign demon-
could finally lay to rest those
strates why Perot believes that he
earlier this year someone leaked
doubts. And he could put his cam-
should go with his hunches-and
Navy records on Perot showing
paign into proper context as an epic
why sometimes that is a bad idea.
that at the end of his active duty
struggle against the oppressive
some officers considered him too
forces of the status quo.
erot guessed right when he
immature to captain ship.
thought that with a single po-
Yet there is abundant evidence
W
e're talking about some-
that this fear is exaggerated.
body who wants to be in
tent issue. his feediot humor and
Perot has contended that in 1970
the history books." Mason said.
Red River twang he could mobilize
a volunteer army. He was right
the FBI told him he was the target
With the story of GOP tricks. Perot
again in his convictions that he
of plots conceived by the North
would establish himself as a man of
noble deeds and "as an important
could shine at the three-way de-
Vietnamese to be carried out by
bates and that with TV advertise-
the Black Panthers. But an FBI
person with important enemies."
ments that defied all conventional
official said this week that FBI files
he said.
wisdom he could attract an audi-
from the time show that. although
Perot's contention that he want-
ence of millions.
there were general rumors that the
ed to keep the story bottled up is
His habit of going with his gut
panthers might try to hit promi-
not entirely borne out by the facts.
nent American businessmen. Perot
Hewitt. the "60 Minutes" pro-
was probably reinforced when he
saw that he seemed to be better off
was never mentioned by name in
ducer. acknowledges that he told
#
without a huge and costly cam-
such reports. "We didn't reach out
Perot that CBS intended to go with
paign apparatus.
to warn him." an FBI source who
the story on the allegations wheth-
er or not Perot cooperated-a
"He followed his own counsel in
has searched the files said
the beginning. and he was on a
Perot's credulousness was also
standard journalistic maneuver to
demonstrated in his reliance on the
force a source's cooperation. But
roll." said Steve McElroy. an Aus-
tin entrepreneur who is a partner
information of Scott T. Barnes, a
Perot. far from trying to hide the
story. had for weeks been directing
with Perot in a beverage busi-
Hewitt to the videotape of Barnes
ness. "He hired a bunch of experts
and Oberwetter he thought would
and it was a disaster." Then. "he
cleaned the slate-and suddenly he
prove the Republicans' malicious
intent. Hewitt said.
was on a roll again.
"I've got to say to myself. Why
"He has every reason to believe
is he waving me off with one hand,
he should follow his own counsel.'
and egging me to go see a tape that
But other impulsive decisions
he says is the definitive proof of
have blown up in Perot's face.
what has happened?" Hewitt said
in an interview.
some close associates acknowl-
Perot also trotted out the dirty
edge.
tricks tale at the end of a three-
Some advisers still believe that
hour interview with editors and a
his July departure was a mistake.
reporter of the Boston Herald. as
Some say his choice of retired Vice
they met with Perot last week to
Adm James B. Stockdale for a
consider a possible endorsement.
running mate was also an explod-
"Me brought : = Tell
ing cigar. And then there was the
Chandler. executive editor of the
dirty tricks charge. which polls
newspaper.
now suggest has halted Perot's
And at a rally Sunday in Fle-
momentum.
mington. N.J.. Perot again promot-
Some associates confess private-
ed the story. perhaps more than he
ly that they believe Sunday's move
needed to 1: he did not intend to
was a blunder and worry that his
emphasize it.
habit of rejecting advice has led
He urged the New Jersey audi-
him to a dangerous isolation:
ence to watch the "60 Minutes"
Since his July 16 exit from the
broadcast so they would under-
race. Perot has stayed at arm's
stand why he withdrew. And be
length from the two people once
described the alleged dirty tricks
heeded: Tom Luce. his lawyer and
not as simply one of the reasons.
former campaign manager. and
but as the reason for his departure
Morton H. Meyerson, who runs
Perot's computer business and for.
merly chaired his campaign.
WASHINGTON EDITION/LOS ANGELES TIMES
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30. 1992
COLUMN RIGHT/
TOM BETHELL
Silver Lining
to a Clinton
Presidency
He would be in line of fire
the extent to which the end of the Cold
early, setting up opportunity for
War would bail out the Democrats.
Domestically, Clinton would be tightly
conservatives in 1996.
constrained by markets. Government debt
as a percentage of GNP is already twice
F the most dispiriting in memory. It's
or conservatives, this election may be
what it was when Jimmy Carter became
President. Global markets will be poised to
hard to envisage any outcome of the
respond negatively if Clinton shows signs
presidential race that would stir much
of trying to expand the already excessive
enthusiasm on the right. A come-from-be-
reach and power of the state.
hind victory for President Bush? A conser-
Clinton, moreover. does not to appear to
vative speech writer mentioned to me that
share in the moral ambition (on behalf of
the prospect gives momentary pleasure,
others) that characterizes the left as a
but upon reflection the heart sinks. As
whole. (But one wishes someone had asked
John Podhoretz points out in the current
him to explain his comment in the third
National Review, a reelected Bush would
debate that "middle-class people" will
almost certainly "grow," the code-word
"have their fair share of changing to do,"
for a move to the left.
including "the challenge of becoming con-
In any event, a Bush victory now seems
stantly re-educated.") Clinton speaks so-
unlikely. In the all-important economic
licitously of the middle class, perhaps
area, the President has not convinced
because he knows that he cannot be
voters that he has learned from his mis-
elected without them. Perhaps he also
takes. When Bill Clinton attacked "trickle-
knows that he cannot govern without
down economics" in the third presidential
them. He has come close to giving a
debate, Bush mystifyingly replied that he
no-new-taxes pledge for the middle class.
"didn't want any more trickle-down gov-
All to the good.
ernment." What was that supposed to
If the polls are right, the Democrats are
mean? Bush has tried to associate his
about to monopolize power in Washington.
record with Ronald Reagan's (15 million
But they are also about to discover that,
jobs created in the "Reagan-Bush years").
when they had a compliant Republican in
But Clinton understandably points out that
the White House, they never had it so
Bush himself, in 1980, attacked the theo-
good. Moderate Republicans like Bush
retical basis of the Reagan recovery as
enact their opponents' agenda, and so are
"voodoo economics." Clinton also charges
obliged to take the blame when things go
that Bush has actually tried to spend more
wrong. Democrats have not noticed how
money than Congress wanted: "It's hard to
convenient this arrangement has been-
outspend Congress, but he tried." The
policy influence without personal respon-
economy will decide the election, and Bush
sibility-because their own people have
has not given us reason to think that he
been excluded from power.
will do better than Clinton.
But with a Clinton presidency, we will
The best that can be said for Ross Perot
see a great and welcome clarification. No
is that he may weaken the future President
longer will the clamorous victim groups
by confining his vote to less than 50%.
who have made much of public life so
Otherwise there's little to recommend the
unbearable in recent years be able to howl
man, who comes across as a silly, strutting
their customary accusations at Republi-
demagogue. He's on the verge of giving a
cans in the White House. Oh, they will try.
bad name to billionaires. With his unsup-
The policies of the Reagan-Bush years will
ported and (I believe) mendacious charg-
become the legacy of the Reagan-Bush
es, his antagonism toward Bush has be-
years. But soon enough Bill Clinton will be
come so conspicuous that it might end up
in the direct line of fire. A President
helping him.
Clinton will have to ride the bucking
The prospect of a Clinton presidency is
bronco of interest groups, and there's
of course not at all appealing to conserva-
always the possibility that he will fall off.
tives, but in his case second thoughts do at
At that point, moderate Republicanism
least lighten the gloom and disclose a silver
should also be in terminal disrepute. By
lining. How much damage could a Presi-
1996, there's a good possibility that conser-
dent Clinton actually do? By contrast with
vatives will have recaptured control of the
the 1970s, when the last Democratic candi-
GOP.
date was elected, foreign affairs are much
diminished in importance. Ceding territory
Tom Bethell is Washington editor of the
to the communists is no longer an option. If
American Spectator.
an Andropov or a Brezhnev were still in
the
Kremin
Clinton
little
chance of victory. Bush never did grasp
'A President Clinton will have
to ride the bucking bronco of
interest groups, and there's
always the possibility that he
will fall off.'
THE WALL OTHERT OVVIMAL
© 1992 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. AU Rights Reserved.
Perot's Support
FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30. 1992
The poll suggests that Mr. Bush still
Younger Voters Vital to Clinton
faces formidable challenges if he is to
Slips, but Impact
overtake the Arkansas governor in the
How young people turn out this year
campaign's final weekend. Forty-four per-
really does make a difference. Because
cent of voters, asked to choose among a
they overwhelmingly prefer Mr. Clinton, if
In Race Remains
menu of elements that would affect their
they turn out in heavier-than-expected
presidential choice, selected the economy
numbers it would mean a better showing
as the top factor. At the same time,
Tuesday for the Democrat than the polls
Mr. Bush is rated the voters' third choice
indicate.
Where His Supporters Go
as the candidate who would do the best job
Anecdotal evidence, including the huge
television ratings drawn by the debates,
on economic matters, winning the endorse-
May Determine if Bush
ment of only 21% of voters, compared
suggest that there's more interest among
with 33% who give the top rating to Mr.
Americans in this campaign than in other
Has Chance of Winning
recent elections. But this interest isn't
Clinton and 28% who choose Mr. Perot.
There is no way to predict with cer-
reflected in the rate of people eligible to
tainty whether Mr. Perot will continue to
vote who are actually registered to vote.
By DAVID SHRIBMAN
slide and, just as important, whether
That's up only about 1% over 1988, though,
And JAMES M. PERRY
Perot voters slip into the Bush or Clinton
because the population keeps growing, the
Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
columns or decide simply not to vote.
sheer number of people registering to vote
WASHINGTON - Support for Ross
climbs every four years.
Perot is slipping, and where it goes proba-
Courting Perot Supporters
With final figures now available from 30
bly will determine whether George Bush
The Bush camp says it's stepping up
states, the increase in the rate of registra-
has any chance of pulling off an upset in
personal appeals to groups of Perot voters
tion this year is a meager 0.96%, according
Tuesday's election.
and is working to win a number of endorse-
to the Committee for the Study of the
The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC
ments from prominent Perot backers, par-
American Electorate; the registration rate
News poll gives Gov. Bill Clinton a 44% to
ticularly in industrial battleground states.
34% lead over Presi-
Mr. Clinton's strategists will concentrate
in 1988 declined more than 2% from 1984.
their attacks on Mr. Bush rather than Mr.
But that doesn't mean more people
dent Bush among
registered voters,
Perot so as not to alienate the Perot
won't vote this year; they will because of
supporters.
the growth in the voting-age population.
with Mr. Perot at
Mr. Perot clearly was hurt by the
And in some places, registration figures
15%. Among those
who vote regularly,
fallout from his Monday news conference,
are up sharply.
Mr. Clinton's lead
where he assailed the press, offered no
Registration in Oregon, for example, is
drops to six points,
proof of his allegations of "dirty tricks"
up about 16% from four years ago, to 1.8
by the Bush campaign and acknowledged
million from 1.5 million. Voting experts
43% to 37%, with 13%
that he recorded telephone conversations
at the Democratic National Committee
for the Texas bil-
lionaire.
himself. On Tuesday, the first day after the
point to surging registration in several big
cities, such as Detroit, Chicago and Phila-
The poll was
session, Mr. Perot's support was at 17%. By
conducted Tuesday
the next day, it had fallen to 13%. The
delphia. Most of that work has been done
and Wednesday,
Journal and NBC reached the 15% figure in
by the nonpartisan Project Vote, a voter-
with the only signif-
the head-to-head race by averaging the
participation organization based in Wash-
Ross Perot
results from Tuesday's and Wednesday's
ington, D.C. Its director, Sandy Newman,
icant change be-
tween the two days being the decrease in
samples.
says his group has helped to register
the strength of Mr. Perot, the independent
Though Mr. Clinton remains in a strong
150,000 new voters, almost all of them
position as the campaign narrows, Messrs.
black, in Pennsylvania; 110,000 in Chi-
candidate.
Though Mr. Perot's share of the elector-
Hart and Breglio say the survey does
cago; 70,000 in Michigan; 40,000 in Ohio;
ate is declining, his impact on the struggle
suggest a plausible "scenario for victory"
and 160,000 (with the help of the New York
for the White House may still be substan-
for Mr. Bush. He leads in the South for the
Public Interest Research Group) in New
tial because the waning days of the race
York City.
first time since June and among white
With the exception of New York, where
are, at least in part, a campaign for
Southerners who are regular voters, the
voters who once found allure in Mr.
Mr. Clinton holds a big lead, these are all
lead swells to more than 20 points. And
battleground states, and most of these
Perot.
while Mr. Clinton has been ahead among
voters will cast their ballots for Mr.
Right now President Bush is benefiting
all white voters. the race now is a dead
Clinton.
most from Mr. Perot's descent. The presi-
heat, with Mr. Bush ahead among those
Curtis Gans, director of the Committee
dent has made gains with Republicans and
who vote regularly. Among all regular
with independents, among whom Mr. Bush
for the Study of the American Electorate,
voters, the race for the male vote, custom-
predicts a turnout Nov. 3 of 51% to 55% of
has climbed from third place into first,
arily a component of the GOP presidential
taking 32% as opposed to Mr. Clinton's 30%.
the eligible voters. The 55% figure would be
coalition, is also almost even.
But voters who now are only loosely com-
a major breakthrough, reaching levels last
But the pollsters say that Mr. Bush
mitted to Mr. Perot favor Mr. Clinton as
achieved in 1972. Four years ago, 50.2% of
needs to succeed, among Midwestern
those eligible to vote did SO. Of those
their second choice over Mr. Bush, 53% to
voters, where Mr. Clinton still leads, and
40%, suggesting a possible advantage to
registered to vote, 78% went to the polls.
among white Catholics, where Mr. Clinton
With no breakthrough in the rate of
the Democrat if Mr. Perot's support erodes
still has a scant lead.
those registering to vote, the likely way to
further.
For Mr. Clinton to win, he needs a solid
Democrat Peter Hart and Republican
achieve a significant increase in the
turnout among voters under age 35, where
percentage of those who take the time to
Vince Breglio, the pollsters who conducted
he holds a substantial lead of 47% to 27%.
the survey for the Journal and NBC, say
vote is by pulling a larger share of
Mr. Clinton leads among all women by 14
that "the momentum of the trial heat
registered voters to the polls. "The poten-
pointsand by 20 points among women
tial for that happening is there," says Mr.
favors George Bush."
under age 40.
But they note that "in the end, elections
Breglio.
For all the candidates, as well as the
always come back to the fundamentals."
pollsters trying to figure out what is going
And they say that "the fundamentals of
on, the problem is trying to determine
How Poll Was Conducted
this election favor Bill Clinton."
who's going to vote and who isn't.
The Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll was based on
Mr. Clinton himself, in an interview,
The Journal/NBC poll isolates what it
nationwide telephone interviews of 1,507 registered voters
said that "I'm not all that distressed to see
conducted Tuesday and Wednesday by the polling organi-
calls "regular voters," people who say
zations of Peter Hart and Vince Breglio.
a tightening of the polls.' But, he added, "I
they have voted in half or more elections in
The sample was drawn from 315 randomly selected
geographic points in the continental U.S. Each region was
need a big turnout," especially> among
the past three year by using this
regist in association its DOCUMENT House
young voters.
were selected by a method that gave all telephone num-
the Journal/NBC pollsters in their latest
bers, listed and unlisted. an equal chance of being
In reporting the Journal/NBC survey,
survey eliminated 23% of the people they
included.
One registered voter, 18 years or older, was selected
pollsters Hart and Breglio emphasize that
sampled.
from each household 3 rocedure to provide the correct
it may be misleading to focus solely on
So who: in this process, is being elimi-
number of male and female respondents. The results of the
survey were minimally weighted by race and party for the
people who vote regularly. because this
nated? Most notably, those between the
Tuesday data. and by age, sex and party for the Wednes-
election could also draw many people
day data to assure that the poll accurately reflects
ages of 18 and 30. They make up 12% of the
registered voters nationwide. Data for both nights were
who vote less frequently. For that reason,
screened "regular voter" sample. but four
then merged. retaining their Individual weights.
Chances are 19 of 20 that if all registered voters with
the Journal is reporting the results among
years ago they represented 20% of the
telephones in the U.S. had been surveyed, the findings
both registered voters and regular voters,
turnout, and many experts think that
would differ from these poll results by no more than 2.5
percentage points in either direction. The margin for a
which under the poll's definition elimi-
abysmally low figure will show some im-
subgroup would depend on the size of that group.
nates anyone who hasn't voted in half the
The group identified as people who vote regularly is
provement Tuesday.
made up of 1,158 people who say they vote inhalf or more of
elections in the past three years.
all elections. The margin of error for this group is 2.9
percentage points.
THE WALL JOUITIAL
1992 Dow Jones a Company, Inc. AU Rights Reserved
FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30, 1992
Voters Can Bet on Bush's Familiarity, Gamble
On Clinton's Course or Plunge In With Perot
By GERALD F. SEIB
And ALAN MURRAY
But the real challenge for the next
Clinton to pledge to renegotiate the North
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
president will be addressing longer-term
America Free Trade Agreement and he
WASHINGTON - Voters going to the
economic problems. Since 1973, the produc-
resisted them. But there would be a con-
polls Tuesday will choose among the
tivity of American workers has grown at
stant struggle between Mr. Clinton's
known. the unknown and the unfathom-
only a third of the pace of the 1950s
avowed free-trade views and forces that,
able.
and 1960s and their average earnings have
among other things. want to compel Japan
After four years in office, George Bush
been stagnant. It's that poor performance
to end its trade surplus with the U.S. or
is a familiar figure to most Americans.
that has led many people to question
face automatic retaliation.
Despite his conservative campaign rheto-
whether the steady rise in living standards
A President Clinton would also have to
ric, he is a moderate. He instinctively
that characterized the first four decades
face up to lawmakers from his own party
rejects claims from opposite sides of the
after World War II is going to continue.
who want to either raid the defense budget,
ideological spectrum that government is
Gov. Clinton has proposals to take on
or use it to finance unneeded but politically
either the cause of, or the solution to, most
that task by increasing government spend-
popular weapons programs. Many Demo-
of the nation's problems.
ing on education, training, public in-
crats want to cut defense spending much
If re-elected, he can be expected to
frastructure and research. Getting a Dem-
deeper than does Mr. Clinton. At the same
labor more on domestic policy than he did
ocratic Congress to boost spending in those
time, Mr. Clinton also would have to stand
in his first term, but
areas won't be difficult. But for the pro-
up to lawmakers in his own party who see a
will still face an en-
CAMPAIGN
gram to succeed, a President Clinton
Democratic president as their best chance
ormous challenge
also would have to demonstrate he has
to keep the money flowing for pet weapon
dealing with an um-
the spine to stand up to some powerful
systems that might no longer be militarily
friendly and some-
92
forces that have the potential to destroy his
necessary but represent thousands of
times disrespectful
program. Whether or not he can resist
jobs.
Congress. He offers
them may well determine the success or
But if Mr. Clinton succeeded in taming
a steady hand on
Defining
failure of his presidency.
these special interests and outstanding
foreign policy, and
If elected, Mr. Clinton's first test will
problems, he might be in a position to stake
would see to it that
Differences
come within days of his inauguration. Will
out a bold new path. One huge advantage
changes he has
he propose a tough, credible, multiyear
he would enjoy is the fact that Congress
helped unleash on
deficit reduction plan as part of the initial
itself will be smarting from voters who
the world stage would proceed at a mea-
economic stimulus package he intends to
have spent the year complaining about
sured pace.
propose? Or will he offer the goodies first,
Washington gridlock and warning politi-
A vote for Bill Clinton, on the other
and merely promise to do deficit reduction
cians of every stripe that business as usual
hand, is a gamble. As the first Democratic
later?
won't be tolerated any longer. That may
president in 12 years - and the first Baby
Gov. Clinton's campaign proposals
leave the Congress chastened and more
Boom president and the first one elected
don't come close to addressing the deficit
eager than usual to act in concert with a
after the end of the Cold War - he would
in a satisfactory
Democratic president, a situation Mr.
have a rare-opportunity to define a new
way and many of
Clinton could turn to his benefit.
course for the nation, much as Ronald
the academic econo-
mists who advise
Bush Seeks Safe Bets
Reagan did in 1981, Lyndon Johnson did in
1965, and Franklin Roosevelt did in 1933.
him say deficit 're-
President Bush is bargaining, of
But if he succumbs to his tendency to want
duction can be put
course, that Americans will conclude that
to please all, he could be pushed by
off until future
the kind of predictable, incremental
powerful and competing special interest
years. But budget
change he offers is a safer bet in the new
groups into a congressional muddle that
experts in Washing-
world that he has helped create in the
would leave the nation worse off than
ton say a President
last four years.
before he started.
Clinton would only
Mr. Bush would try to revive the econ-
"The most successful leaders have
have sufficient clout
omy by fighting for increased tax incen-
dealt with Congress by bullying them, by
to wrestle with this
tives for private investment, a cut in the
essentially going over their heads to the
thorny problem in
capital gains tax and, perhaps, an across-
American people, getting solid support for
the early days of his
the-board income tax cut. He pledges re-
George Bush
their proposals, and then presenting them
presidency.
newed war on government regulations.
to Congress," says Allan J. Lichtman, a
"The most effective economic program
professor of history at American Univer-
would be to imbed a short-run economic
And to stimulate the economy in the short
sity here. "If you try to coddle them, get
stimulus package in a legislated, long-run
run, he promises not a Democrat-style jobs
into the back room with them, then your
deficit reduction plan," says the Brookings
bill, but rather more rapid expenditure of
Institution economist, and former Carter
his already-enacted plan to spend billions
programs will be nibbled away. and you'll
administration official, Charles Schultze.
on transportation construction.
fall into the morass."
Economists agree that some wise public
Mr. Bush promises neither the all-out
Meanwhile. a vote for independent can-
investments could help address both the
assault on the deficit that Mr. Perot advo-
didate Ross Perot is a leap into the dark.
economy's short-term and its long-term
cates, nor the more laid-back deficit-cut-
Mr. Perot talks like the ultimate pragma-
problems. But in order to keep his program
ting approach of Mr. Clinton, but rather a
tist, without ideology. But events of the last
few weeks have raised questions about
from turning into just another congres-
continuing chipping away at the spending
imbalance.
whether he has the temperament to hold
sional porkbarrel, Mr. Clinton would have
the nation's highest office. More than that,
0 stand up to some powerful legislative
And, as much as anything else, Mr.
interests - most notably Sen. Robert C.
Bush bases his vision for domestic and
he would have to try to enact a politically
unpalatable deficit-reduction plan without
Byrd of West Virginia, who has delivered a
foreign policy in the next four years on a
a single member of his own party in
spree of free-trade agreements in Eu-
cornucopia of federal projects to his home
Congress," says William Leuchtenburg, a
rope, Asia and Latin America to match
state.
residential scholar
his North America Free Trade Agree-
who--
North Carolina. "That is unparalleled in
ment: Tr is exports mail have saved us
is also from West Virginia, says the key to
his country or any other country."
in this global slowdown. global recession,
preventing Mr. Clinton's infrastructure
and it is exports that are going to lead the
Challenges Await Winner
program from turning into pure political
way out of this with jobs for American
Whoever is elected will face great un-
pork is for the president to show toughness
manufacturers and American services."
ertainty on the world stage, most notably
and discipline - qualities he sees in Mr.
Mr. Bush said in the campaign's final
he prospect of unrest during the coming
Clinton.
days.
politically turbulent winter in Russia. At
Wanted: Tough Leader
the same time, the next president is
"It's the absence of toughness and
likely to preside over a better economy
discipline which has allowed what has
han that which has saddled President
been for us in West Virginia, thanks to
Bush for the past four years. Low inflation,
Robert C. Byrd, a very creative process,"
ow interest rates, corporate streamlining
he says.
and reductions in consumer and business
Another hurdle for Mr. Clinton would
debt burdens have left the economy primed
be Rep. Richard Gephardt and other trade
or a recovery some time in the next couple
hawks in Congress. They wanted Mr.
of years.
WALL VITIETTI
© 1992 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. AU Rights Reserved.
Mr. Bush's biggest problem in a second
term undoubtedly would be a continuation
FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30, 1992
of the biggest prob-
lem he faced in his
first term: a hostile
Clinton Campaign Coffers Are Getting
Congress controlled
by Democrats. In
fact, the problem
Strong Support From Gay Community
might well be worse
in a second term,
By JILL ABRAMSON
because Mr. Bush
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
would be a lame
WASHINGTON - The gay community
Gay Giving
duck president seen
has emerged as one of Bill Clinton's most
as an even easier
important cash constituencies.
Major gay and lesbian political groups that
target for the oppo-
raise money or contribute to candidates
Gay activists say the Clinton-Gore
sition. "It's pretty
through political action committees:
ticket and the Democratic Party have
clear that Congress
received more than $2 million from gay
The Human Rights
National
Bill Clinton
has taken a special
contributors. There's no way to document
Campaign Fund
delight in antagonizing President Bush
the contributions because federal election
The Log Cabin Federation
National
and that would be true even more in a
data doesn't include sexual preference.
second term," says former Rep. Bill Fren-
The Empire State
New York
Interviews with gay activists across the
zel of the Brookings Institution.
Pride Agenda
country disclose an unprecedented out-
Mr. Perot, if elected, would come in
pouring of financial support to Mr. Clinton.
Impact
Illinois
with the clearest commitment to reducing
"There's never been anything like this,"
Access Now for Gay
California
the budget deficit through higher taxes
says David Mixner, a senior Clinton ad-
and Lesbian Equality
and spending cuts. But whether he could
viser and member of Access Now for
get Congress to go along with his politically
Gay and Lesbian Equality, a Southern
painful plan is far less clear. And even if he
California group that includes big do-
somehow succeeded in getting lawmakers
"The Republican convention was a
nors. The group, known as Angle, pumped
to enact his plan, the net result could well
five-day reminder that you aren't welcome
about $500,000 into Michael Dukakis's cam-
be a rapid contraction of the economy-
and you don't belong here," says Steve
paign in 1988, but will probably raise more
which then would antagonize lawmakers
Smith, a Californian who was the Demo-
than $1 million for the Clinton-Gore ticket.
eager to escape blame for that outcome.
cratic National Committee's first openly
Four years ago, according to Mr. Mixner
The one thing an election of Mr. Perot
gay committemman from 1980 to 1988.
and other gay organizers, George Bush
would do is send the most unmistakable
received support, with votes and or money,
But financial support for Mr. Clinton
signal in the history of American politics
from about 33% to 40% of the gay commu-
was building in the gay community even
that there must be an overhaul in the way
before the convention in Houston. In Feb-
nity.
government is run, not mere tinkering
Mr. Clinton has been the beneficiary of
ruary, Angle co-chaired a fund-raising
around the edges. But on the world stage,
heightened political awareness and activ-
dinner for Mr. Clinton at the Regent
the combination of the uncertainty and Mr.
ism among gays, who have been politicized
Beverly Wilshire Hotel in Los Angeles with
Perot's rhetoric of economic nationalism
by the AIDS crisis and angered by anti-gay
a number of other prominent Californians,
would shake up friends and foes alike. All
rhetoric of the religious right. In Jersey
including lawyer Warren Christopher and
in all, ventures Mr. Leuchtenburg, "I think
it would probably be close to chaotic."
City, N.J., last night, the Democratic nom-
several entertainment-industry execu-
inee called AIDS "one of the most funda-
tives. Among the dinner sponsors printed
mental questions facing our people in the
on the invitation were a number of gay
health care area," and vowed a "war on
couples.
AIDS." He pledged to put a single official
"From the very beginning, financial
in charge of that effort, to step up educa-
support from the gay community has been
tional efforts about the disease, to speed up
instrumental," says Clinton campaign fi-
approval of AIDS drugs and to increase
nance director Rahm Emanuel. Taking
federal funding sharply for AIDS re-
his lead from Mr. Clinton, Mr. Emanuel
search, prevention and treatment.
says the campaign made sure that gays
Over the past decade, gays have formed
were included as full participants in Mr.
their own federal and state-level political
Clinton's fund-raising team. Besides Mr.
action committees, and they are leaning
Mixner, Randy Klose, the late former
heavily Democratic this year.
director of the Human Rights Campaign
The Human Rights Campaign Fund,
Fund, was a member of Mr. Clinton's
the largest gay and lesbian political organ-
national finance committee. "They have
ization in the nation, has increased its
sat at the table as full participants,"
membership from less than 20,000 a few
Mr. Emanuel says.
years ago to more than 60,000 today. It
In May, Mr. Clinton appeared before
expects to double its contributions to sym-
the national media at a Hollywood night-
pathetic candidates, to more than $1 mil-
club for a fund-raising event organized by
lion this year from $500,000 in 1990, accord-
gay activists that raised more than $100,-
ing to spokesman Gregory King. The fund
000 for his campaign - the largest event
AIDS activists, has been critical of Mr.
has sent 21 staffers into the field to organ-
ever held in the gay community for a
Clinton; during the New York primary
ize get-out-the-vote drives for Mr. Clinton
presidential candidate.
campaign, he got into a shouting match
in such key states as California, Michigan
with an one member. ACT-UP has criti-
and Illinois.
Contributions to the Democratic Party
cized the Arkansas governor for not over-
Just as last fall's Clarence Thomas-
have been enhanced by money donated or
turning a state anti-sodomy law and for
Anita Hill hearings on sexual harassment
raised by entertainment industry execu-
insufficient state spending to combat
provoked an avalanche of political dona-
tives who have been active in the move-
AIDS.
tions from angry women to women politi-
ment to combat AIDS, such as Barry
cal candidates, the Republican convention
Diller and David Geffen.
But any criticism of Mr. Clinton pales
next to the antagonism in the gay commu-
sparked its own firestorm in the gay
"This election is like our national com-
nity towards President Bush. "Gay Repub-
community. Anti-gay speeches by conser-
ing-out as a political force," says Mr. King
licans have not been writing checks to
vative commentator Patrick Buchanan
of the Human Rights Campaign Fund. Tim
Republicans." says Rich Tafel. president
and religious broadcaster Pat Robertson
McFeeley, the group's executive director,
of the Log Cabin Federation. the largest
prompted gays around the nation to open
reports that this month members have
gay GOP organization. which also has its
their checkbooks.
been hosting house parties for the Clinton
own political action committee. He agrees
"Support crystallized overnight with
campaign around the country. Although he
that the GOP convention generated a "neg-
Pat Buchanan's speech.' says Mr. Mixner.
doesn't have precise numbers, he says the
ative ripple effect."
"It created a voting bloc and tripled the
sums raised have been considerable.
money.
ACT-UP. an organization of militant
INL WALL OTHELT JOUIUAI
© 1992 Dow Jones @ Company, Inc. AU Rights Reserved
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
Last Minute Look at Clinton's Taxes
By ALVIN RABUSHKA
from them. The tax on those profits bears
statutory rates. Ironically, the 1986 act was
Gov. Bill Clinton says the rich do not
the standard corporate charge of 34%. The
passed because SO many people deemed
pay their "fair" share of taxes. But a close
remaining (post-tax) 66% of income finds
that pre-1986 system "unfair."
look at Mr. Clinton's economic program
its way into "rich" Americans' bank ac-
The chain is a dangerous one. High
reveals a daunting picture of what a Clin-
counts. In the case of dividends they
rates beget loopholes. which beget eco-
ton presidency could mean. His tax plan
receive, they will pay 38% of that 66%. That
nomic distortions, tax shelters, rising tax
goes far beyond the 38% rate that is
amounts to an additional tax of 25% on the
expenditures and the rebirth of a great
sometimes associated with it, and beyond
same stream of income. So the effective
evil, financial planning. When, in a mo-
the additional 10% millionaire surtax. In
marginal rate for anyone who participates
ment of ironic inevitability, the number
fact. when you take into account the real
in the growth of the U.S. economy and does
crunchers discover that the rich pay a
tax rate on the businesses that provide our
so successfully as a shareholder (has made
lower share of total income tax than before
livelihoods, the Clinton program turns out
it to the top bracket) is 59% (34% corporate
the Clinton tax hike, the "fairness" advo-
to advocate a top marginal rate of 60% or
tax + [38% individual rate times 66%
cates will clamor for still higher rates.
higher.
after-tax income)). That is higher than
If the bond market's behavior in past
How do we come to such pre-1986 num-
current law, which by this arithmetic gives
weeks is any indication, the inflation re-
bers? On the surface, Gov. Clinton's plan
us a current top marginal rate of 54.5%. It
sulting from Mr. Clinton's spending pro-
appears reasonable. To improve "fair-
contrasts more sharply with the 1986 Tax
posals would have the effect of unlegis-
ness" he has proposed a tax increase on
Act, which yielded a top marginal rate of
lated tax increases. In that scenario, U.S.
the rich. Mr. Clinton has not settled on a
52.5%.
taxpayers will meet an old friend: bracket
precise top marginal rate, but Treasury
Now let's look at what Mr. Clinton has
creep. To help Mr. Clinton out, some
estimates based on Clinton revenue num-
planned for millionaires. Through his in-
enterprising congressman will figure out
bers put that rate at 38% for the top 2% of
vestments, a millionaire can pay the stan-
the ultimate way to truly soak the tax-
taxpayers. Still reasonable in the view of
dard corporate rate of 34%. But he pays a
payer: repeal indexing and encourage the
some. When you add in the millionaire
higher top marginal income-tax rate of
Federal Reserve to inflate. Welcome to
surcharge, the rate rises to 41.8% (38% +
41.8% on his dividends. The combined
Carter Era II.
(38% X 10%) = 41.8%).
double tax is 61.6%. This combined high
But the rate is really even higher.
rate on investment income will surely
Suppose President Clinton is elected
deter new investment of the kind that is the
Mr. Rabushka, a fellow at the Hoover
and enacts his new "fair" tax on the rich.
key plank of the Clinton program. And that
Institution, is co-author with Robert E. Hall
Assume he raises the top marginal rate on
doesn't even include state income tax rates
of "The Flat Tax" (Hoover Press, 1985).
the top 2% of earners to 38% from 31%, and
as high as 11% (California).
on millionaires to 41.8%. Although none of
Now let's look at capital gains. Mr.
Mr. Clinton's top advisers - not Robert
Clinton has not said much about changing
Reich, not Ira Magaziner, and not Robert
that rate. But the effective tax rate on
Shapiro - has mentioned this, this pro-
capital gains depends on inflation - and
gram takes a giant step backward from the
how long people hold onto assets. The
simplification of our 1986 tax law. The
important point is that the two new higher
program would give the U.S. an income tax
brackets on personal income have the
system of five brackets: 15%, 28%, 31%,
effect of increasing the taxes on hardwork-
38%, 41.8%.
ing. successful people, even if Mr. Clinton
But these, of course, are not the real
doesn't touch the current "28% top rate."
rates. That's because taxpayers who re-
We have to remember too that such
ceive business income don't merely pay
high rates are how we got into our pre-1986
taxes once. They pay taxes twice, once
tax predicament in the first place. The
when the businesses they own or invest in
inflationary years of 1965-80 pushed mid-
pay a tax on profit (the corporate tax) and
dle class taxpayers into progressively
again on after-tax profits, which they re-
higher brackets. Congress then enacted
port as dividends or as capital gains on IRS
numerous tax loopholes to offset the prob-
forms.
lem. But the result was hardly "fair" in the
Let's take the new 38% bracket. Most
Clinton sense: The rich and their tax
of these people have businesses, or profit
planners rarely paid taxes at those high
Kecession Keinforcers
Environmental groups suffered a
natural carcinogens. A new article in
major setback in 1990, when California
Science magazine concludes that "the
voters overwhelmingly defeated Big
enormous amount of money spent try-
Green, a sweeping back-to-nature ini-
ing to prevent 'one-in-a-million' risks
tiative that would have deepened that
can be counterproductive and involve
state's severe recession. Economically
economic and health-related trade-
oblivious environmentalists have now
offs." The scientists call for policy
moved their tent show to Ohio and
makers to put hypothetical risks into
Massachusetts. Voters there will con-
some sort of perspective.
sider two measures that could be
Massachusetts has the other ma-
straight out of Al Gore's book of envi-
jor environmental monkey wrench on
ronmental apocalypse.
the ballot. It would require packaging
The more controversial is Ohio's Is-
used inside the state to be reduced in
sue 5, which would impose severe re-
size, be reusable or be made of recy-
porting and warning requirements on
clable materials. Some 50,000 con-
businesses that use any of 458 poten-
sumer products ranging from Snickers
tially hazardous chemicals. It's based
bars to Cabbage Patch dolls would ei-
1980 Callfornia habeling law
ther have to come in special packages
pushed by Hollywood celebrities.
or not be sold at all in the state.
Ohio's Issue 5 would be more costly.
That would not only bollix up na-
Playing on the public's understanda-
tional brands but increase costs. The
ble fear of cancer, it defines a "signifi-
forced use of recyclables in Germany
cant risk" to cancer as one excess case
raised the prices of some products by
per million people - a standard 10
10%. Governor William Weld, who
times more stringent than California's
backs the initiative, normally supports
law. Issue 5 would require cancer la-
free markets, but seems to flake out
bels for thousands of products. Busi-
when an issue comes cloaked in envi-
nesses would have to notify everyone
ronmental pieties.
living near a site with any of the chem-
Economically pressed Californians
icals present.
have apparently stopped believing en-
The Ohio initiative is almost anti-
vironmentalism's current sermons of
science in its ignorance of what sci-
doom. The show of hands in Ohio and
ence now knows about carcinogens.
Massachusetts will determine
Tap water, bread, bacon, cola and
whether the crusade has legs or is fi-
mushrooms all contain low levels of
nally running out of steam.
THE WALL
© 1992 Dow Jones @ Company, Inc. AU Rights Reserved
FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30. 1992
President's Exit in a Scandal Fails
To Shake Backers of 'Safe' Ito- Yokado
By YUMIKO ONO
daily goods. It also operates 57 7-Elevens in
And QUENTIN HARDY
Hawaii and is best known outside Japan
Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
for it 62.3% stake in Dallas-based South-
TOKYO - The news normally would
land. It acquired the position in Southland,
have slammed a company's stock: The
which then had about 7,000 7-Eleven stores
company president resigns in shame after
in the U.S., in 1990.
other excutives are charged with paying
The company has remained conserva-
extortion money to racketeers.
tive throughout, moving cautiously while
But when Ito-Yokado Co., Japan's big-
the competition raced to expand and gar-
gest convenience-store chain and majority
ner more sales. Ito-Yokado has focused on
owner of Southland Corp. of the U.S., said
increasing inventory turnover and quickly
Thursday that its president was quitting,
jettisoning products, such as certain sport-
the company's stock closed up on the day.
ing goods and electronics, that don't sell
The shares hit 3,680 yen ($29.87), a gain of
well. Its point-of-sales system, which uses
40 yen.
computers to determine what's selling and
Why? Of all major listings on the Tokyo
what isn't, "is the best in the industry,"
Stock Exchange, this is one of the few that
says Ms. Melendez.
analysts of Japan's battered market are
touting - albeit with reservations, and the
When customers walk into a Japanese
mob notwithstanding.
7-Eleven store, everything they purchase
"It's a squeaky-clean company," says
is noted for later marketing research.
Victoria Melendez, an analyst for Jardine
Cashiers record the sex, estimated age and
Fleming Securities Ltd. in Tokyo. "Their
time of arrival of the customers, so they
balance sheets are easy to read, they're
can calculate how many box lunches and
sitting on mountains of cash and they
rice balls will be needed at any time of the
never spend beyond their means."
day. Recently, the chain even attached a
In fact, a recent survey of 700 Japanese
screen to the cash register, SO the cus-
companies by rating concern Morningstar
tomers can see on display a list of the
Inc. placed Ito-Yokado's stock - which is
products they just purchased. The com-
traded as American depositary receipts in
pany has also cut by 90% the time it takes to
New York - near the top of the list for
ring up a customer's purchase.
return on investment (an average 21.86%
The recession has helped Ito-Yokado:
over 10 years) and for low risk of underper-
Some consumers are forswearing the food
forming in a bear market.
departments of expensive stores, with
"It's a safe stock, very defensive," says
their fresh salmon eggs and fancy tem-
Brian Tobin, of S.G. Warburg Securities
pura, and instead grabbing a cheaper
(Japan) Inc. With Japan in recession, and
sushi box and iced tea at 7-Eleven. Still,
consumers watching price, "Everyone's
profits are down throughout the industry,
going to shop there.'
and Ito-Yokado is no exception. In the
half year ended Aug. 31, its consoli-
Alleged Payoffs
dated pretax profit dropped 12% to 97.28
To shop, and in some cases extort,
billion yen, while consolidated revenue
apparently. Ito-Yokado's latest troubles
rose 11% to 1.523 trillion yen. Net income
stem from alleged payoffs the company
decreased 19% to 32.38 billion yen.
made to insure that the racketeers
Expected Results
wouldn't disrupt the company's annual
meetings; three executives were arrested.
For the year ending Feb. 28, 1993,
If the charges are true, this isn't the first
Ito-Yokado expects pretax profit to drop
time a Japanese company has succumbed
3.7% to 196 billion yen, revenue to rise 3.7%
to such pressure. The practice is illegal,
to 3.03 trillion yen and net income to
but the Japanese mob has threatened to
decline 8.4% to 67.4 billion yen.
disrupt other annual meetings in the past
A spokesman says Southland is chiefly
to get worried companies to pay up.
to blame for the drop in corporate profit.
Ito-Yokado hasn't expressly acknowl-
Indeed, bolstering ailing Southland, and
edged it did anything. But President Masa-
retiring more of its debt, will be the chief
toshi Ito, the company's 68-year-old
mission of Mr. Suzuki, Ito-Yokado's new
founder, resigned Thursday and apolo-
president. Mike Allen, senior analyst at
gized for the controversy. His succes-
Barclays de Zoete Wedd Securities Ltd.,
sor, Toshifumi Suzuki, the company's vice
says Southland had a loss of $389 million in
president and Mr. Ito's right-hand man,
1990 and $54 million in 1991, and will post a
wouldn't comment on the scandal. Mr.
loss of about $47 million this year. Still, he
Suzuki. 59, did note that he would continue
says, Southland has been closing unprofit-
the company's policy of concentrating on
able stores and "next year they stand to
profit rather than on boosting sales.
make a profit for the first time in many,
Indeed, it's this long-standing orienta-
many years."
tion toward profit-until recently a novelty
Mr. Suzuki said he was "furthering his
in market-share-bungry Japan - that has
confidence" in his outlook for Southland.
made Ito-Yokado an industry leader. In
We're now in the process of getting rid
Japan. the company operates nearly 4.840
of the poison" in the system. he says.
7-Eleven stores and 142 general merchan-
"We'll finish doing that this year. Next
dising stores, which sell food. clothes and
year. we re aiming for a pretax profit."
WALL
1992 Dow Jones 8 Company, Inc. AU Rights Reserved.
FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30. 1992
Bush Too Requires
Leap of Faith
He hasn't yet put Dick Darman out of
our misery: a re-elected president. feeling
vindicated, might even promote him. Mr.
In Voting Booth
Bush also says he wants to make Washing-
Washington Wire
ton a "bicker-free zone," which sounds like
there would be more tax summits with Dan
President Bush's pollster, Fred
Rostenkowski. Has George Mitchell also
A Special Weekly Report From
Steeper, asked voters a few weeks ago to
choose between the George Bush and Bill
promised not to bicker? Thomas Scully, a
The Wall Street Journal's
Darman protege and White House health-
Clinton economic plans. The Bush plan lost
care aide. didn't inspire confidence when
Capital Bureau
by 10 points.
he said on National Public Radio earlier
Some time later Mr. Steeper tried the
this year that campaign proposals are one
STRETCH RUN: Bush and Clinton plot
same thing with one crucial difference. He
left out the names of the candidates. The
thing but governing is another. Read his
their last dashes.
Bush ideas won going away on every issue
lips?
Clinton says he will "play offense" and
Mr. Clinton has run the better cam-
focus almost exclusively on the economy. He
except one (taxing the rich). "When you
tell voters it's the Bush plan," says one
paign, which is at least a sign of compe-
hits Georgia and Florida, then focuses on the
tence. He has echoed the Ronald Reagan of
battleground states of New Jersey, Pennsyl-
White House aide, "the numbers fall."
1980 in stressing growth and opportunity,
vania, Ohio, Michigan and Missouri. Clinton
Those voters know just how I feel. I also
even if his proposed means are suspect.
says he will also go to Texas, at the urging of
prefer most of the Bush platform to Gov.
But a president comes with a party, and
Sen. Bentsen, to campaign in the heavily
Clinton's. I only wish I believed Mr. Bush
Mr. Clinton would come with the congres-
Hispanic Rio Grande Valley.
really preferred it, too. Pox-on-both-houses
voters have always struck me as cop-outs;
sional Democrats, unreformed and fes-
Bush, with a razor-thin margin for error,
this year I've got the pox myself. (Ross
tooned with special
seeks to assemble an unlikely electoral
Perot's flight on wings of ego is too flaky.)
interests. For every
majority. Though his Southern and Rocky
The hollowness at the core of the Bush
David Osborne who
Mountain base still isn't nailed down, he'll
wants to reinvent
presidency is what has made this election
head for industrial states like Wisconsin,
so vexing.
government, Demo-
New Jersey, Connecticut, Michigan and
crats have a (law-
Ohio. He may also target Georgia and
yer activist) Harold
Potomac Watch
Missouri, where Perot still crimps his pros-
Ickes who wants to
pects for victory.
expand it. For every
While attacking Clinton, Bush will
By Paul A. Gigot
Sen. Sam Nunn who
step up references to his second-term
voted to confirm
plans and reach once more for "the vision
Clarence Thomas,
thing. Clinton will stress his "different
there is a Ricki
"Our people don't have agendas. They
kind of Democrat" theme.
Seidman (Ted Ken-
have mortgages," a senior Bush aide told
nedy staffer turned
the Washington Post on Jan. 19, 1989-
Clinton aide) who
George Bush
TUESDAY'S WINNER will face a slug-
thereby setting the tone for four years of
tormented him. A Clinton victory also
gish economy, despite the GDP jump.
mortgaging principle. Like Taft and Van
cedes the judiciary, which he will use to
Economists predict fourth-quarter
Buren, two other successors to two-term
buy peace with his party's left; the Ameri-
growth will be worse than the 2.7% third-
presidents, Mr. Bush is a man of the
can proliferation of "rights" and litigious-
quarter figure and see only a modest pickup
establishment who misunderstood his coa-
in the first half of 1993 - even if the Fed cuts
ness will continue.
lition's populist roots. With a few notable
If Mr. Bush does rally to win, a latent
interest rates again. The most optimistic see
exceptions (trade, judicial appointments,
voter fear of Democratic control of all
little chance that the jobless rate will fall
education), Mr. Bush has ceded the domes-
three federal branches will be a large
below 7% before mid-1993. Caterpillar Inc.
tic political field to his opponents.
reason. With the world moving toward less
says the economy has "lost momentum."
On the paramount issue of economic
intrusive government. Americans may
National Association of Manufacturers
growth, the sin isn't the relatively mild
flinch before turning to a party it knows
board members oppose a short-term sti-
recession. It's Mr. Bush's refusal to defend
will deliver more. A defeat to someone as
mulus package by 4 to 1. But Kurt Karl of
and fight for the policies that produced the
weak as George Bush may even be the
WEFA Group says that "if all the numbers
seven-year Reagan boom and secured his
shock therapy Democrats need- to tame
are really weak, we'd expect even Bush to
own 1988 victory. Mr. Bush attacks the
their worst excesses.
come up with some kind of stimulus." And
media, with some justification, for eco-
In the Nixon-to-China sense that only a
Clinton aides say that, if elected, he'd begin
nomic "gloom and doom," but his own
Democrat can reform government, maybe
work right away on a deficit-neutral plan to
silence created the vacuum his critics have
a President Clinton could tame them. But
spur public and private investment. A sure
filled. This timidity goes beyond what my
doing SO would require more than rebuking
bet: an investment-tax credit.
editorial-page colleagues call weak "gen-
Sister Souljah; it would mean staring down
eralship"; it speaks to the heart of his
the groups that destroyed Jimmy Carter.
TIED HANDS? Bush and Clinton are
public character.
This is where the doubts about Mr.
both boxed in by campaign promises.
Mr. Bush's miserable campaign is the
Clinton's character apply. His soft person-
Clinton will be pressured to move on such
ality, his desire to please and be liked,
expensive items as middle-class tax relief
apotheosis of his too personal presidency.
He speaks in slogans - "Ozone Man,"
make it unlikely he'll resist the pent-up
and health care. His pledge to negotiate
"nutty pollsters" - that are epithets, not
demands of his own coalition. Mr. Bush
side deals to the Mexican trade pact will
arguments. He has had as many themes as
was reluctant to use Gennifer Flowers
slow down its implementation. He is com-
speeches, perhaps because for him cam-
during this campaign; Mr. Clinton's party
mitted to finishing the B-2 bombers and
paign themes are less ends to seek than
"allies" won't hesitate to use something
Seawolf submarines already under way,
similar if they aren't appeased.
and going ahead with the V-22 tilt-rotor
means to keep power. This spring a promi-
Mr. Bush is right to say that a vote for
aircraft.
nent Republican called a senior White
Bill Clinton is a leap into the unknown, a
But Bush also now finds himself commit-
House official with alarm about the presi-
dent's lack of purpose. "You don't under-
triumph of hope over Carter experience.
ted to the V-22, which he once tried to kill.
stand." the official replied THIS IS all
The agony for conservative non-parti-
And after granting big export subsidies to
about power. Such arrogance deserves
sans - and the reason we'll be holding our
farmers. he would have to take many of
some modesty-inducing time in exile.
noses in the voting booth - is that scis a
them away if a global trade agreement is
Mr. Bush is a genuinely decent man,
vote for George Bush.
reached cutting back on such aid.
His politically inspired pledge to
with real foreign accomplishments to his
means he may have to
credit. It's also true that a second term
dump Darman, whether ne - and Dar-
might be better. and Mr. Bush has finally
man patron to or not.
acquired an agenda he may even fight for.
But how can we know?
THE WALL 0110121
© 1992 Dow Jones B Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved
FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30. 1992
HOLDING THEIR OWN? Republicans
say they sense a chance to embarrass Gore
in his home state of Tennessee; Bush cam-
paigns there today, and Quayle on Monday.
But Democrats whisper that they have a shot
in Quayle's Indiana, where polls show only a
narrow GOP edge.
REPUBLICANS HOLD a big cash edge
for last-minute efforts. In its final. pre-elec-
tion disclosure, the GOP reported an S18
million cash hoard, while the Democrats had
$12 million; the Bush campaign had $23.7
million cash on hand, while the Clinton
campaign had $14.5 million. But a top Clin-
ton fund-raiser sa"s Clinton will be able to
keep pace with Bush media buys in the
critical states.
BIG GIVER: Sam Bamieh, a California
businessman and Iran-Contra figure with
past Saudi connections, turns up on a Com-
mon Cause list of top GOP soft-money
contributors. Bamieh, who claimed to have
had knowledge of CIA dealings with the
Saudi government on behalf of Nicaraguan
rebels in the mid-80s, has given $312,800 in
the past two years.
PLACING BETS? The Securities Indus-
try Association names as president Marc
Lackritz, who was a Rhodes scholar with
Clinton. And the American Bankers Associa-
tion's new president is William Brandon
of Arkansas, who also has Clinton ties.
WOMEN'S VOTES help fuel Democratic
congressional campaigns.
In the newest Wall Street Journal/NBC
News poll, women favor Democrats over
Republican House candidates by a 14 per:-
centage point margin, compared with a
nine-point Democratic edge among men.
Among the more than half of women who
work outside the home, the edge is even
greater- 19 points.
Meanwhile, the "Anita Hill Class" of new
women lawmakers takes shape. In the Sen-
ate, Maryland incumbent Mikulski and Cali-
fornia's Feinstein are regarded as sure bets.
California's Boxer and Illinois's Braun still
cling to leads, while Murray in Washing-
ton and Yeakel in Pennsylvania are in tight
races. Women candidates are given good
chances of ousting veteran House incum-
bents Wilson of Texas and Crane of Illinois.
But some female House incumbents
are in trouble, including Democrat Oakar
in Ohio and Republican Snowe in Maine.
MINOR MEMOS: Bill Becker, the Ar-
kansas AFL-CIO chief who last March called
Clinton a "chameleon" who reneges on
promises, now is quoted in the AFL-CIC
newspaper as saying he "has the potential tc
be one of our greatest presidents.'
Bush
begins tomorrow's train trip in little Bur-
lington, Wis. - the home of the famous Liar's
Club.
Rep. Rostenkowski's opponent is
formally listed on the ballot as Elias R.
("Non-Incumbent") Zenkich.
RICH
The 10st
Clinton Says
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
He Opposes
Schaefer
USAir Deal
Candidate Would Kill
Expected to
British Airways Pact
Back Bush
By Martha M. Hamilton
Washington Post Staff Writer
Governor Accepts
Democratic presidential contender
Bill Clinton has joined independent
Invitation to Rally
candidate Ross Perot in making a cam-
paign issue out of the proposed alli-
BILL CLINTON
wants access to British market
ance between USAir Group Inc. and
By Richard Tapscott
Washington Post Staff Writer
British Airways PLC.
nor visits Pittsburgh, USAir's largest
Clinton said on the "Larry King
base of operations, for a midday rally.
ANNAPOLIS, Oct. 29-Mary-
Live" show Wednesday night that if he
The proposed deal between British
land Gov. William Donald Schaefer,
were president he would refuse to sign
Airways and the sixth-largest U.S. car-
a-Democrat, will travel to suburban
off on the proposed $750 million deal
rier would link USAir's schedule to the
St. Louis on Friday to appear at a
because, "we get no access to the Brit-
schedule of British Airways to help in-
rally with President Bush and is
crease traffic on British Airways trans-
expected to give his endorsement
ish market if we do it."
atlantic flights. In return, British Air-
to the Republican incumbent.
Yesterday, however, Transporta-
ways would invest $750 million in
Schaefer, who was mayor of Bal-
tion Secretary Andrew H. Card said
USAir, which has suffered hundreds of
timore for 15 years before being
that he planned to decide on the alli-
millions in losses. The deal requires
elected governor in 1986, has a
ance sometime between the election
approval by regulators on both sides of
Jong and warm acquaintanceship
and Dec. 24, the date either of the two
the Atlantic, as well as stockholders.
with the president and has fre-
airlines could walk away from the deal.
American Airlines Inc., United Air-
quently spoken of him in flattering
The issue is expected to come up
lines Inc. and Delta Air Lines Inc. have
terms.
again today when the Arkansas gover-
Until now, Schaefer has declined
group. "Free trade is all-important for
to endorse either Bush, who is trail-
[President] Bush and he lets other
ing in the state, according to a re-
opposed the deal, saying that it would
economic policies stand or fall on their
cent poll, or Democratic nominee
put other U.S. carriers at a competi-
merits."
Bill Clinton, saying in response to
tive disadvantage, since their access to
Britain and beyond is more limited
U.S. and British negotiators ended
questions simply, "I'm a Democrat."
another round of talks yesterday on
Schaefer spokeswoman Paige
than British Airways'.
Perot first raised the issue during
proposed changes to the bilateral
Boinest said this evening that
agreement governing aviation be-
Schaefer decided to make the ap-
the last presidential debate, prompting
an immediate response by Seth E.
tween the two countries, which might
pearance with Bush after receiving
provide more U.S. airlines greater ac-
a call today from Robert Teeter,
Schofield, chairman of Arlington-based
USAir. Yesterday, Schofield fired off a
cess to British markets. The talks are
chairman of the Bush campaign.
similar letter to Clinton, taking issue
scheduled to resume in Washington
"He hasn't said anything SO far in
with the Democrat's views.
Nov. 9. However, the Bush adminis-
the presidential election, and he felt
tration has said its decision on the US-
it was time to go with his con-
"The USAir-British Airways alliance
Air deal doesn't depend on the out-
science," Boinest said.
will preserve jobs in the U.S. airline in-
come of those talks.
She said the first contact be-
dustry while it increases domestic
competition, keeps fares low and in-
One of the Clinton campaign's many
tween the president's reelection
creases pressure for strong customer
policy study groups is an informal
organization and Schaefer came
service," Schofield wrote.
Transportation Task Force, headed by
today, and she was uncertain
One issue Clinton has raised is the
former Civil Aeronautics Board attor-
whether Schaefer would campaign
inequality in competition between Eu-
ney William K. Ris Jr. Ris is a senior
elsewhere for the Republican pres-
vice president of a lobbying firm that
ident.
ropean aircraft manufacturing consor-
tium Airbus Industrie, which receives
has been retained by American Air-
The St. Louis rally is scheduled
lines, but a Clinton campaign staff said
for 12:40 p.m. at Maryville College
government subsidies, and U.S. air-
Wil-
craft manufacturers. Schofield pointed
Clinton is soliciting advice from a large
in St. Louis County, Schaefer will
out-as he had in his letter to Perot-
number of sources and that Ris has
See SCHAEFER, D5, Col. 4
that USAir and British Airways oper-
had no direct contact with Clinton on
ate large numbers of U.S.-built Boeing
the USAir-British Airways issue.
Co. aircraft.
Clinton hasn't precluded allowing
Staff writer Peter Behr contributed
such a deal if an agreement
to this report.
that would give U.S. carriers broader
rights abroad, said a member of his
campaign staff. The point of view that
Clinton brings to the issue is one that
is emerging in his discussions of many
trade issues-that of reciprocity.
"For Clinton, free trade is only good
in conjunction with policies that pro-
mote worker retraining and other eco-
nomic aims," said Gary C. Hufbauer of
the Institute for International Econom-
ics, a Washington-based research
CIJE
1005
Schaefer Expected to Back Bush
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
SCHAEFER, From DI
without the support of the governo
and we'll continue to be successf
be introduced at the rally by Mis-
without his support," Spalter said.
30-SECOND POLITICS
souri Gov. John Ashcroft, a Repub-
Clinton did not solicit Schaefer'
lican. Schaefer's spokeswoman said
support, Spalter said, "because Wi
the Maryland governor plans to ad-
didn't need it."
dress the rally.
Carol Arscott, spokeswoman for
She said Schaefer will likely en-
the Bush-Quayle committee in
dorse the president at that time.
Maryland, said a Schaefer endorse-
"He obviously thinks an awful lot
ment might help the president.
Bush's ads are
of the president, but he didn't get
"The governor certainly has
involved in it up till now," Boinest
core of loyal supporters, and I hop
misleading and wrong.
said.
they'll take his advice," Arsco
"He's taking a day off to go out
said. "In Maryland, no Republica
and make this appearance. Obvious-
can win statewide office withou
ly, he feels strongly about it," Boi-
Democratic support."
nest said.
State Senate President Thoma
Schaefer has never been a Clin-
CBS & CNN
V. Mike Miller Jr. (D-Prine
ton fan, although the two were ac-
George's), a co-chairman of th
quainted from meetings at the Na-
Clinton-Gore campaign, calle
tional Governors' Association.
Schaefer's expected endorsemer
The Democratic nominee launched
concluded: "Frankly, we no longer
Shortly before Maryland's presiden-
of Bush "unfortunate" and "mis
two new ads yesterday. The second
trust George Bush."
tial primary in March, Schaefer en-
guided."
one uses increasingly tight shots of
Analysis: This counterattack ad,
dorsed former Massachusetts sen-
Miller noted that Clinton has th
President Bush saying "you will be
aired 24 hours after a Bush spot
ator Paul E. Tsongas, who carried
better off four years from now than
endorsement of virtually all leadin
assailed Clinton's record, uses pos-
you are today" followed by negative
Maryland in the primary.
Democrats in Maryland, many (
itive statistics to try to neutralize
economic statistics. The tag line:
Bush apparently needs all the
whom gave it long before the pr
Bush's dark portrait of Arkansas.
"How're you doing?"
support he can get in Maryland,
The figures are accurate but use
mary.
based on results of a poll conducted
time periods most favorable to
Miller said he presumes the
Candidate: Bill Clinton
Clinton. While Arkansas was No. 1
for WRC-TV (Channel 4).
Schaefer's action is somehow cor
Producer: Clinton-Gore Creative
in job growth in the past year, it
The poll showed Clinton leading
nected to the governor's longstand
Team
lagged behind the national average
Bush by 16 percentage points, 46 to
ing feud with Baltimore Mayor Kur
during Clinton's tenure. While
30, and gave independent Ross
L. Schmoke.
Time: 30 seconds
Arkansas' crime rate dropped in
Perot 16 percent in the state. Eight
It was announced this week tha
Audio: CBS and CNN and newspa-
the first half of 1992, it increased
percent of those polled were unde-
Schmoke had been invited to Littl
pers across the country call George
faster than any other state during
cided.
Rock to be with Clinton on Electio
Bush's ads misleading and-wrong.
the past decade. And Clinton is re-
The poll, conducted by Potomac
Night.
The fact is under Bill Clinton's
quired by law to balance his bud-
Survey Research, surveyed 600
Miller said he does not believ
leadership, Arkansas leads the na-
get.
likely Maryland voters from Satur-
that Schaefer will affect the out
tion in job growth, has the second
The ad uses newspaper and TV
day through Monday and had a 4.1
come of Tuesday's voting in Mary
lowest tax burden and the lowest
reports, such as a Judy Mann col-
percent margin of error.
land, because Clinton holds a com
government spending in the coun-
umn in The Post, to buttress
Jonathan Spalter, communica-
fortable lead in the polls.
try. And he's balanced 12 straight
Clinton's claim that the Bush
tions director for the Clinton-Gore
However, he said an endorse
budgets. They reduced infant mor-
charges are misleading. One group
campaign in Maryland, said he was
ment might influence voters in oth
tality and now have the highest
that the Bush ad cites for support,
er states where the race is close bu
graduation rate in the region. And
the Corporation for Enterprise
not surprised by the expected en-
dorsement by Schaefer.
where voters "might not be awan
in the past year Arkansas' crime
Development, cried foul yesterday,
record went down. No wonder The
with its chairman calling Arkansas
"We're surprised it took him this
of the independent streak of ou
Washington Post says George
"a poor state" that "has made
long," Spalter said.
governor."
Bush is lying about Bill Clinton's
courageous and dramatic strides."
Given Schaefer's slumping ap-
Miller said Schaefer's actio:
record. And why the Oregonian
Howard Kurtz
proval ratings, according to recent
could hurt the state's credibility.
Mason-Dixon Polls, Spalter said his
"The governor has got to be told
endorsement of Bush might help
that he's being used as propaganda
Clinton in Maryland.
to undercut the very platform and
"We've been doing successfully
program he espouses," Miller said.
CIJE
105
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
JUDY MANN
Standing by Their Man
f Gov. Bill Clinton wins this election, it's going
paid enough attention to the mobilizing of women at
to be because of the votes of women, who have
the state and local levels," she says. "There are
been his strongest and most steadfast
record numbers of women seeking state legislative
constituency throughout the campaign. In this
seats across the country and that automatically
election, it's the men who have had trouble making
energizes a turnout." This should favor the
up their minds.
Democrats because 10 times as many Democratic
Whether it's the economy, education, health-care
women are running for the U.S. Senate as are
reform, reproductive choice-or just plain
Republican women; twice as many Democratic
change-Clinton has pounded away at issues that
women are running for the House as are
have resonated to the daily concerns of women
Republican women, and about 40 percent more
voters. Unlike 1988, this year's campaign has
Democratic women are running for state
delineated sharp differences between the
legislatures than Republican women.
candidates on matters that affect women and their
Woods contrasts the reception women candidates
families, and women have done what the suffragists
are getting this year to past years, when they
hoped.they would: They are transforming their
usually started off 5 to 10 percentage points behind
personal concerns into political action.
simply because they were women. "Maybe the
From mid-July on, most national polls have found
greatest virtue of all the hype around 'the year of
that more women than men support Clinton, and
the political woman' is that it has reinforced
they have viewed President Bush more harshly
women's confidence in women. It's made women
than men have. The latest Washington Post-ABC
feel, The voters want me.' In the past, there's
poll, concluded Monday, found that Clinton was
been the discouragement factor. This year, for the
supported by 50 percent of women and 39 percent
first time, we've had the encouragement factor."
of men. Thirty percent of women and 34 percent of
Democratic pollster Celinda Lake says women
men supported Bush, and 16 percent of women
voters "have been very impressed that Clinton
backed Perot compared with 22 percent of men.
knew the price of bread, the price of gasoline, the
"George Bush can no longer campaign as the
price of jeans," when a woman asked him those
kinder, gentler president," says Jane Danowitz,
questions during a televised forum. "They assume
director of the bipartisan Women's Campaign Fund.
women candidates know these things. You're going
"He has a record which has repeatedly been against
to see women candidates get some last surges here
women that hangs around his neck. He vetoed the
and I think it's going to be very much related to
Family and Medical Leave Act and he's consistently
people wanting to elect people who are in touch
vetoed legislation favoring abortion rights, and he's
with their lives. It's such a stark contrast in their
appointed judges and justices to the courts of our
minds to Bush."
country who've been consistently anti-choice.
She says the Bush campaign understood the
Clinton-Gore have been pro-jobs, pro-choice and
importance of character to women but failed to
pro-change and that's the message women are
understand that "it's multifaceted.
responding to. Finally, once and for all, we may be
"There's personal trust and public trust. Women,
voting in unison and more as a bloc than we ever
in particular, distinguish between the two. They are
had before. I think that's to our credit."
looking for a leader who will keep his promises to
Republican pollster Linda DiVall doesn't see it
them. That is part of Clinton's strength. They sense a
quite that way. While Clinton draws about half of the
commitment that is very strong." By contrast, she
women's vote, there's the other half that votes for
says, Bush's "read my lips" promise not to raise taxes
Bush or Perot. "My guess," she says, "is that under 5
"is seared on the American conscious."
percent will say they switched and voted for Clinton
So, in the end, if Clinton wins it will be because
because of the abortion issue," although she says it
more people voted for him than voted for Perot or
was a crucial issue in motivating women to run.
Bush. But in this most volatile of election years, it
But Harriett Woods, head of the National
was women voters who stayed with him and gave
Women's Political Caucus, thinks another factor
him security. And that is precisely what they are
will work in Clinton's favor. "I think people have not
yearning for, for themselves and their families.
Stephen S. Rosenfeld
Winners of the Cold War
All right: It would be strange if George Bush
policy is often overlooked-he opened up a negoti-
"militarization" of American policy and especially our
were not taking credit for winning the Cold War-
ating window and, in Mikhail Gorbachev, eventually
"unnecessarily belligerent and threatening tone"-
the "we" who won it floating somewhere between
found a Kremlin interlocutor who was ready to
words that apply not just to Reagan but especially to
Americans as a whole and the Reagan-Bush team in
consider a respectable strategic withdrawal so as to
Reagan-did not SO much hasten as delay this
particular. The political advantage available to be
turn to domestic repair.
home-baked process of Soviet liberalization.
drawn from the other international item
none of this transpired H
Wed, 100, functicans conducted military adven
of the last four years-his conduct of the gulf
there were not in the Soviet system, somewhere, a
tures and hurled angry words. These surely had
war-is being steadily squeezed by scrutiny of his
disposition to change. You can call it a strength of
their political impact on the other side, as Soviet
Iraq policies before and after that conflict. To flesh
the Russian character in that certain people pos-
deeds and words had their impact on our side. In
out his claims of foreign-policy prowess, the presi-
sessed a capacity to see the light. I refer particular-
some aspects the Cold War did indeed consist of
dent badly needs the Cold War. It did end, after all,
ly to Sakharov and Solzhenitsyn and the legion of
the mutual misunderstandings, provocations and
on his White House watch.
lesser-known moral heroes. Or you can call it a
political responses of the two superpowers.
But that leaves open the role of American policy
genuine weakness of the Soviet system itself: its
But where did the trouble begin? With the Soviet
and-to narrow it down-Reagan-Bush policy in
internal inconsistencies, its inability to coax perfor-
Communist Party forcibly taking away the liberty
bringing about this happy result. The issue will
mance and cooperation from people it abused and
of many people. What remains notable about the
engage historians for the next century or two. But
intimidated, produced terminal deadlock.
'80s is that once Gorbachev started dismantling
meanwhile not just Bush's election prospects but
Some-like George Kennan, writing in the New
communism-stopped governing the Soviet empire
the reputation and self-esteem of a generation of
York Times of Oct. 28-discount the role of Ameri-
and people by force-the Cold War was instantly
participants in the political wars are on the line.
can steadiness and pressure and give almost all the
over. The American system, intact, reached out to
This is what lends the debate its distinctive snap.
credit to an internal Soviet dynamic. Kennan speaks
the new Russia. The Soviet system dissolved. What
The basic Reagan case is strong. Ronald Reagan
with the authority of one who conceived the 40-year
could be clearer evidence of where the source of
turned up the heat in military spending and high
Western policy of "containment." He meant that the
the Cold War lay?
tech, on regional battlefields and on the ideological
West should hold the ring until internal pressures
Why did this not happen until the '80s? Why did
front. At the same time-this part of the Reagan
mellowed the Kremlin. Now he believes that the
it happen during the time of the most "militaristic"
of American presidents? I suspect that the Soviet
Union was on the edge, and Reagan pushed it over.
Up until that point the Soviet economy and society
suit underson al
were sick but not sick enough, and threatened but
not threatened enough by progress and pressure
elsewhere, to bring systemic crisis to a climax. Just
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
at that moment-the right moment-Reagan
came along to apply maverick conservative notions
of the vulnerability of communism to change that
he had had in his head for years.
George Bush now piggybacks on Reagan's tri-
umph. He is entitled to. But he shouldn't be misstat-
ing the Reagan case. He stints the contribution made
by Russians to unlocking their own destiny and
dismisses the contribution made by Democrats to
sustaining containment. All postwar presidents were
aboard containment in one or another fashion. Initia-
tives that Reagan harvested-in confronting Soviet
missiles in Europe and Soviet invaders in Afghani-
stan-Carter planted. A little generosity and truth-
to the successors of Soviet communism and to the
domestic opposition-will take next Tuesday's presi-
dential victor a long way.
Va. Democrats Hope to End Tradition
Clinton-Gore Said to Offer Best Hope of Breaking GOP String
By Donald P. Baker and Peter Baker
states to carry Virginia," concurs
"I just don't trust him," Cindy
Washington Post Staff Writers
University of Virginia government
O'Connor, 43, a medical technician,
professor Larry Sabato.
said about Clinton. "We know what
About this time every four years,
Polls indicate that Bush has been
we've got with Bush. I don't think
Virginia's Democratic leaders, like
slowly increasing his lead over Clin-
we'd be in for any big surprises."
Halloween goblins, have gone into
ton and independent Ross Perot in
O'Connor, a self-described Navy
hiding, peeking out just long enough
Virginia, while Clinton maintains
brat, is particularly upset about
to cast ballots on Election Day.
comfortable margins in Maryland
Clinton's draft record.
This year, however, the party's
and the District of Columbia.
"My husband didn't like the war
hierarchy, from Gov. L. Douglas
WRC-TV (Channel 4) reported
either," she said. "None of my fam-
Wilder on down, is campaigning
Wednesday that Bush's support in
ily liked it. But when you live in this
openly and vigorously for the par-
Virginia, measured last Saturday,
country, you have an obligation."
ty's nominees for national office,
stood at 43 percent, compared to
Margaret Elder, 68, who retired
believing that the two southerners
39 percent for Clinton and 11 per-
from a career in data processing,
offer the best chance in decades for
cent for Perot, with 7 percent un-
plans to vote for Clinton in part be-
the party to carry the state in a
decided.
cause of his energy, though she is
presidential race.
With the margin of error at 4.1
not sure whether to trust him.
But moderates Bill Clinton and Al
percent, the race is a tossup.
"At least he seems upbeat," she
Gore still may not have enough ap-
Another poll, released yesterday
said.
peal among the state's conservative
jointly by George Mason University
"George Bush is too old. He's
old guard to break a string of six
and the University of Virginia,
only one month younger than I am.
consecutive Republican sweeps in
showed Bush with 47 percent, fol-
You simply don't have the energy
presidential voting.
lowed by Clinton with 36, Perot
"It's our best chance of winning"
that you had 20 years ago. Things
with 13 and 4 percent undecided.
do start wearing out. I mean, my
since 1964, when Texan Lyndon B.
Polling in Maryland from Satur-
knees are shot. We had our time.
Johnson won in a landslide over con-
day to Monday, WRC-TV found
servative Barry Goldwater, said
It's time to turn it over to people
Clinton with 46 percent, Bush with
who are younger," she said.
Paul Goldman, the Democratic
30 percent, Perot 16 percent, and 8
state chairman.
Ruth Thue, a 77-year-old retiree,
percent undecided.
is the type of voter all three candi-
He added that Virginians haven't
A Channel 4 poll in the District,
dates are competing for right now.
voted against an incumbent Repub-
conducted Oct. 12 to 14, gave Clin-
"I'm in a quandary," she said. "I
lican president since 1932.
ton 71 percent, Bush 17 percent
With voter registration topping 3
just have to go in there and hope
and Perot 8 percent.
million for the first time, and
God tells me what to do. I make up
While Wilder, Lt. Gov. Donald S.
my mind and then something hap-
swelled by 400,000 new voters, the
Beyer Jr. and Attorney General
result in Virginia "could easily be
pens to change it. I really don't ap-
Mary Sue Terry are touting the
decided by turnout," said Goldman,
prove of these politicians bringing
Clinton-Gore ticket, Virginia Re-
Joe Elton, the GOP's executive
up bad things about other people."
publicans hope to halt a drift from
director, agrees with the premise,
Kathy Cook, 39, who is pregnant
Bush in Northern Virginia by em-
with her third child, doesn't believe
but says heightened interest helps
phasizing that Clinton favors D.C.
Clinton supports traditional family
his party.
statehood, which, if adopted, could
values. "I'm very leery of Clinton
Elton said the Democrats will
result Commuter for
and leery of his wife, for sure. She
"have a good
operation" in ma-
urbanites
stands for all the things that I don't.
jority-black precincts, but "when
A handful of Northern Virginians,
She doesn't support the family."
the turnout nears 80 percent, it's
interviewed in a town house com-
Marjorie MacArthur, 33, a prod-
good news for us."
munity in Merrifield, produced
uct manager for Bell Atlantic, is
If Clinton carries Virginia, "it will
more Bush than Clinton supporters.
leaning toward Clinton but went to
be a short evening for George
But most agreed that Clinton
a meeting of Perot volunteers Wed-
Bush," said Bob Holsworth, political
seemed to have more fans locally
nesday to get more information.
science professor at Virginia Com-
and the Bush supporters were
"I've seen some of his infomer-
monwealth University.
mostly lukewarm, more opposed to
cials and I think he makes some
"Clinton will have to win 40
Clinton than true Bush admirers.
good points," she said.
sort alm
The Vote Starts Here
Kicking It Off With Handbills, Bumper Stickers & Leaflets
Sonadji Bey-Farris, 16, Clinton volunteer, works the entrance to the Metro stop.
By Laura Blumenfeld
Impress your parents:
Washington Post Staff Writer
"He wasn't afraid or embarrassed or shy!" COOS
Ellen Cury, mother of Joshua, a zippy 13-year-old
B
ottom line: It gets girls. Looped around your
who hands out Clinton material. "I was real proud of
neck, swinging from a chain, the BUSH-
him. He walked right up to people."
QUAYLE volunteer badge reels them in.
Impress yourself:
"Girls come up to me and say, 'Where'd you get
"They push me aside. I'm surprised I'm not
that?' and we start talking," says Paul Brady, 15,
afraid," says Ben Gladstone, 17, who distributes
from Bishop O'Connell High School in Arlington.
Clinton fliers in McLean. "My area is highly
"It's a good pickup gimmick."
Republican."
Who can resist the earnest gaze of a civic minded
Learn stuff:
guy?
"I have acquired a lot of knowledge of Xerox
"Girls figure I'm a prude or modest They feel
machines," says Clinton volunteer Ofer Zer, 15, from
safer," says Pepin Tuma, 16, known at Langley High
the District
School in McLean as "Mr. Republican
See weird stuff:
The perks of working on a political campaign. It's
This guy took the Bill Clinton-Al Gore literature
not why. they're volunteering, but hey, enjoy the
and buried it in his garden," says Ginger Zan Over,
ride. Teenagers are coming out n.droves this
17, who delivered leaflets in McLean.
Election '92, more SO than in recent memory, say
Mess up traffic:
volunteer coordinators for both the Bush and
"Be careful you don't cause accidents," warns a
Clinton camps (Perot headquarters says it has no
Bush instruction sheet on how to wave signs at
teenage volunteers). What's up?
intersections. Attractive young people may get the
Could be MTV's Rock the Vote campaign,
attention of drivers, but can also be traffic hazards."
Clinton's sax blast on Arsenio and his MTV gig Or.
Become as sophisticated as television pundits:
maybe it's just a reflection of a more politically
think Clinton will win because I like Clinton,"
plugged-in generation. It's cool, these days to:care
says Joshua Cury, 13.
about the environment, about poverty, race, abor
And most important, you glimpse the knotty
tion, to rap on issues.
process of getting an official elected. It's Sonadji
"It's not as trendy as a beeper," says Matt Tobin
Bey Farris's first day on the Clinton campaign. The
17, plucking at his volunteer I.D. badge. "But I wear
16-year-old from the District's Wilson High School is
it to school."
working the Metro Center stop.
After class, instead of track practice and debate
Her smile greets waves of droop-shouldered,
team, teenagers are leafleting neighborhoods, run-
saggy-faced commuters. She vies for their attention
ning errands, staffing phones, stuffing envelopes,
with a flower peddler, panhandler jingling his cup,
stapling namnhlets and sometimes their fin
to
"Youch!" yells a guy wearing a gold camel earring.
"Clinton's economic plan!" Bey-Farris says. hand-
Stapled an index finger. He and a bunch of class-
ing out "Putting People First. A National Economic
mates from Bishop O'Connell High School are on a
Strategy for America."
leaflet fold-two-three-staple assembly line at Bush-
"No way, Jose," says a man, shielding himself with
Quayle headquarters. Fliers blur in their hands.
his briefcase.
They're fast, way faster than the slugs at the adult
"Thank god!" says a woman. who takes a couple of
table.
leafiets.
"Quayle was awesome," in the vice-presidential
"Clinton's economic plan!" Bey-Farris says a cou-
debate, says Julie Warner, 17.
ple of zillion more times.
"He was a scrapper!" says Mark Turner, 17.
She'll recite it in her sleep tonight. But for now
"Young people should be involved," Warner says.
she's happy, popping leaflets into hands, twirling
"It's going to be our world soon."
left, spinning right, don't let that lady with the dog
"We're making history," says Turner, through a
get by, doing her part.
mouthful of pepperoni pizza. Free food, another vol-
She catches their eyes, the peppy girl on the side-
unteer perk. Other reasons to work on a campaign:
walk, and for a sec their wrinkled brows unfurrow.
Ohe Hospington 10g
Molly Ivins
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
Thoughts on the Final Days
AUSTIN-My poor daddy, who is seriously
he's started garbling words all the time? I don't
right-wing, is having an awful time trying to decide
mean his usual Bush-speak non-sentences, but two
whom to vote for. "One's a nincompoop, one's a geek
or three times in a non-sentence, he'll start to say a
and the other one's a Democrat," he said mournfully.
word, get it wrong and have to go back and start it
You notice the economy improved by better than
again. That's what stress and exhaustion do to a
2 percent in the quarter when Ross Perot started
person. Campaigning as hard as these guys are
spending money. Do we think there's a connection?
doing is grueling: It is not good for a 68-year-old
Every time I see that Bush ad. which is about
man. If the R's have polls showing this thing is a
every three minutes, that does nothing but attack
no-hoper, if I were Bush's doc, I'd pull him out.
Clinton-the one where "average voters" keep
As a civil libertarian, which to my mind is the
saying, "I just don't trust him"-I think, "Boy,
same as saying "as an American," I am horrified by
there's another constructive proposal for gettin'
the FBI's cooperation in a sting operation aimed at
this country out of the ditch."
Jim Oberwetter, chairman of the Bush-Quayle cam-
Bush did come up with a couple of good ideas the
paign in Texas. It is unconscionable for a law
other day. They were in that speech that Jim Baker
enforcement agency to go around trying to entrap
was supposed to make, but they changed their
citizens into committing crimes. In the sticky legal
minds, and then changed them again, and then
history of sting operations, which are sometimes
changed them again.
necessary in drug enforcement cases and a few
The Republicans bore down hard and decided
others, the requirements are clear-there must be
what we need is a commission to figure out how to
some probable cause to believe a crime is being or
get from a military-based economy to a civilian-
will be committed. In this case, the FBI's informa-
based economy. Not that there are not already
tion came from the convicted wiretapper and
hundreds of studies on this, but at least they've
known fantasist Scott Barnes, no one's idea of a
pinpointed the problem.
reliable source (except Ross Perot's). I hope Ober-
As always with Bush's ideas in this campaign,
wetter raises hell about it.
you're left sitting there trying to figure out what
An interesting article in the current issue of the
took him so long.
Virginia Quarterly Review explores the growth of
Texas is sure a jump ball at this point. Now, no
conspiracy theories since the assassination of John
one knows where it's going to land. Perot had the
Kennedy and finds two significant reasons why our
mo, but now he appears to be somewhat dement-
political soil is so fertile for nut cases. One is our
ed. The R's and the D's are all sittin' around bitin'
unique situation as a self-created land, as a concoc-
their nails.
tion of myth as much as history. The author,
It was real nice of the Republicans to mess with
Sanford Pinsker, believes Americans have always
Clinton's momma. Boy, is he getting mileage out of
been prone toward a Manichaean view of the
that, or what? He gets indignant about it several
world, in which good and evil have grappled for the
times a day now.
American soul.
But when he first heard about it, his reaction
He also notes that our growing distrust of
was, "They must have thought Brezhnev was
government feeds the notion that this vast, name-
calling my mom to get a tip on a horse in the fifth."
less juggernaut of forces is controlled from the very
His momma is a big horse player.
top. He notes: "For the hide-bound conspiracy
The Republican strategy is clear at last-they'r
theorist, the very absence of proof is proof, yet
waiting to ambush Clinton in the fifth debate.
another instance (should more be needed) of the
The sight of Sen. Al Gore being positively frisky is
insidious workings of one's enemy." The vision of
enough to make me think this one is in the bag for
Ross Perot, bright-eyed as a squirrel, barking,
the Democrats. It's kind of like watching Kaw-liga
"Well, isn't that interesting? Don't you think it's
the cigar-store Indian come to life and get giddy.
interesting?" comes to mind.
I'm worried about Bush. Have you noticed that
1992, Creators Syndicate Inc.
JFK: The Files Are Opened
A
LOT OF PEOPLE have doubts about the
There are a few exceptions. The release of docu-
accuracy and comprehensiveness of the
ments may be postponed by the review board for
official version of the John F. Kennedy
certain enumerated reasons such as the need to
assassination. That some of these are fanciful or
protect the identity of agents still at risk. The
politically inspired or bizarre does not warrant dis-
president has the same authority with respect to
missing them all or simply sneering "conspiracy
executive branch papers only. In a message released
theory" at any mention of the the great inconsisten-
on Tuesday, President Bush interprets this provision
cies and oddities that mark the story. Spurred by the
far more broadly than the text of the law justifies, a
persistence of legitimate doubts, Congress acted this
position that will undoubtedly be contested and, if
fall to open the assassination files to the public. On
invoked, appealed. Access to photos and X-rays taken
Monday President Bush signed that legislation, and
during the autonsy would continue to be controlled by
the countdown to full revelation began.
the Kennedy family. But a troubling larger exemption
All government offices must immediately begin
for "all records and other material that have been
reviewing, identifying and preparing relevant docu-
donated to the National Archives pursuant to a deed
ments. Within 60 days, the National Archives must
of gift regulating access to the material" was fortu-
establish the President John F. Kennedy Assassination
nately removed before the bill was passed.
Records Collection, which will receive those docu-
These files were created in a different era, one
ments, prepare guides and indexes and develop plans
that did not emphasize the public's right to see a
for public access. Within 90 days, the president is
wide range of government papers and one in which a
required to appoint a five-member independent review
shocked nation offered little objection to decisions
board whose nominations will be sent, under deadline,
made in the name of protecting the privacy of the
to the Senate for confirmation. No one who is an
murdered president's family and close associates. By
employee of the federal government or who has been
now all the information about the assassination
involved in any of the many assassination investigations
belongs to history. The release of these documents
may be appointed to the board, which has the authority
should help to answer the many questions that
to order the release of any document.
persist. It is good public policy.
ene
POSI
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
Health Insurance Blues
E
RRORS OF judgment by its management
by setting up for-profit subsidiaries. Those included
certainly contributed to the financial de-
the unfortunate spinoffs in which the local Blue Cross
cline of the Blue Cross-Blue Shield of the
has lost $77 million since the mid-1980s. Because
National Capital Area. But its basic troubles are
some of them were overseas, the forthcoming con-
deeper and more ominous. Health insurance in this
gressional hearings will no doubt show that manage-
country is sliding rapidly toward a crisis. The impact
ment spent a lot of money on travel to exotic
is most immediately visible in the Blues, for they have
places-among other questionable diversions. That
become the insurers of last resort in this country.
will become, deservedly, a major embarrassment to
The Blue Cross-Blue Shield that serves this area
the people who were running the organization. But it's
still insures small groups and individuals regard-
not the basic reason for the decline, which will now
less of their medical histories. Premiums run high
result in folding the National Capital Area Blues into
and are going higher. There are people who pay a
their less adventurous but more tightly run Virginia
third of their incomes for health insurance. But
affiliate. No one ought to be left under the impression
Blue Cross will insure them when other companies
that this takeover is more than a temporary remedy.
will not at any price.
Under the present system, insurers will continue to
The Blues invented health insurance as a benefit
compete by seeking lower and lower risks. That will
open to everyone in the community. Originally,
make it steadily harder for most people to find
everyone paid the same premium. But as costs of
adequate health insurance unless they have the good
care rose, many buyers of insurance began looking
luck to work for large and rich employers. The number
for cheaper alternatives. Insurance companies re-
of uninsured people in this country is now rising by
sponded by offering lower rates for groups that
about 100,000 a month. Health care costs, meanwhile,
were younger than average, or in safer industries
are rising a little over 10 percent a year. The plight of
or otherwise represented lower risks. As time
this city's largest insurer is only part of the mounting
passed, the Blues were increasingly left with the
evidence that the need for health care reform has
high-risk end of the insurance pool.
become urgent. It needs to be the first priority of the
Some of them desperately tried to generate income
president who takes office next January.
Again, the District and Kids
W
E HOPE U.S. District Judge Thomas
There were more deficiencies. "Shocking" was the
Hogan stands firm on his threat to hold
word Judge Hogan used to describe DHS's delay in
the District administration in contempt
getting $36 million in badly needed and available
for its continued failure to meet deadlines for court-
federal entitlement funds for the program. "Insuffi-
ordered reforms of the city's troubled child welfare
cient management attention at the highest levels of
system. Judge Hogan's firm warning was prompted by
DHS" was the reason, said the court monitor. This,
another quarterly report from the court-appointed
we note, is the DHS level that had itself elevated to
monitor documenting the Department of Human
an assistant city administrator slot and expanded to
Services' continued failure to comply with all require-
include four new cabinet positions.
ments of the plan that the department had agreed to
If it seems as though this newspaper has been at it
in negotiations. It is the same old story: Some
for years with the city's Department of Human
progress here and there, signs of hard work by the
Services and its various bureaucratic forerunners,
dedicated down in the trenches, but mostly slippage
we have. Faced with circumstances similar to the
or outright noncompliance with the deadlines that
delay and inaction we see today, we said in a Nov.
count. "Simply ignoring deadlines is not satisfactory to,
11, 1974, editorial about the city's newly trumpeted
the court," said Judge Hogan. But the report suggests
513-page Comprehensive Child Care Plan:
that more than deadlines have been ignored.
Examples:
"By the very nature of some of the services the
With so many case plans either out of date or
District must provide, delay and incompetence and
inadequate, a case review of every child and family
inaction can be dangerous to the children at best and,
with problems in the welfare system was to have
at worst, fatal. A small child, who is being abused or
begun in the fall of 1991 and to have been completed
criminally neglected or otherwise maltreated, cannot
within six months at most. A year later, the review
wait two or three more years for a revamped child
still wasn't fully underway.
care system to meet his needs. It would be nice if the
No progress had been made in getting 377 chil-
Department for once demonstrated and sustained an
dren out of unlicensed or overcrowded foster homes
appropriate degree of energy and dispatch in trying
or reducing the number of children placed in homes
to see its own new program through."
more than 100 miles away from the city.
DHS didn't, and the city failed to meet its obliga-
Despite a court order requiring an investigation of
tions to those children. Two decades later, at the end
child neglect complaints within 30 days, DHS com=
of the Barry administration, a federal judge described
piled a backing of 263 cases representing 630
that system as "a travesty." Is life any better for
children. These children are at the greatest risk.
today's vulnerable children?
On Election-Eve 'Pollercoaster, Voter Is the
Switch
By Richard Morin
lished Wednesday also had a 10-point Clin-
was different. It suggested Bush had essen-
Larry Hugick, managing editor of the Gal-
or Perot, which means that likely voter
ton advantage. The Wall Street Journal
tially caught Clinton with six days remaining
FRIDAY. OCTOBER 1992
Washington Post Staff Writer
lup, Poll. "They should look over the
screening questions that tend to exclude
and NBC put Clinton's lead at 11 on Wed-
in the race. Even President Bush, who last
course of several days of results. The
them risk under-reporting Clinton and
It has been a tough year for America's
nesday and reported a 5-point margin yes-
week urged voters to ignore the work of
take our poll using tracking methodology
Perot's share of the vote. (Or, conversely, if
pollwatchers, and it may get worse before
terday, based on the previous night's in-
those "nutty" pollsters, cited the Gallup Poll
and look at other polls, and realize that the
young voters are included in the polls but
it gets better.
terviewing. ABC reported Clinton ahead
as evidence that Clinton was collapsing.
truth probably lies somewhere in between
ultimately do not vote, then Bush's percent-
On Wednesday, major news organizations
by 7 points in its two-day tracking poll
Whether the Gallup number was right or
all of these polls."
age is understated.)
released public opinion polls that alternately
released Wednesday (and 9 points based
wrong is not what concerns some experts.
While their numbers often have varied
Huguick said he sees a potential prob-
suggested that Bill Clinton continued to en-
on its most recent results, reported yes-
They suggest that the media might have
professional pollsters agree on one thing
lem in Gallup's likely voter screening
joy a 10-point lead
or desperately clung
terday). Even the two presidential cam-
been more cautious in reporting the 2-
This is an extremely difficult year to
technique with newly registered voters
to a rapidly dissipating 2-point advantage.
paign polling operations agreed that the
point margin, given the other results sug-
presidential preference polling. And get
who are 22 years old or older.
President Bush surging? Clinton coasting?
lead was hovering around 7 points.
gesting a wider lead.
ting it right this year will be much harder
A potentially large baby boomer vote
It looked yesterday that the voters were
It was not the first time this year-nor,
"What it tells you is that the extreme
than in the relatively quiescent campaigns
may also pose a problem for pollsters. In
going for another ride on what some wags
pollsters fear, will it be the last-that the
finding, the outlyer, is the one that is:at-
of 1984 and 1988.
the past, boomers have a notoriously poor
already have dubbed the "pollercoaster."
results of the major media polls differed con-
tracting the lion's share of the media at-
The biggest problem, the polling ex-
voting record. But with the Democrat's
Yet was the race really as confused-
siderably from other presidential preference
tention," said Thomas E. Mann, director
perts say, is deciding who really will vote
double-boomer ticket of Clinton and Al-
and the polls as contradictory-as yester-
surveys released at about the same time.
of governmental studies at the Brookings
Many people lie to pollsters about wheth
bert Gore Jr., members of the baby boom-
day's news reports, talk shows and cafe-
A Wall Street Journal-NBC Poll reported
Institution, who said he doubts that the
er they will vote. That forces pollsters to
er generation may vote in historically high
teria chatter seemed to indicate? Most
a 19 percentage point Clinton advantage
race is as close as the Gallup poll sug-
attempt to separate likely voters from
numbers-and confound the preelection
experts suggest probably not.
last week when other surveys were showing
gested. More significant, he said, is "the
those who say they will vote but really will
polls that used likely voter screens based
In fact, only one poll showed Clinton
a margin of about half that size. Six weeks
rough similarity in the other findings. But
not. "And we all know that the determi-
on old assumptions about who votes.
held just a 2-point advantage, done by Gal-
ago, a Post-ABC News survey reported that
the relish for a close fight was too
nation of who is a likely voter is arbitrary
Then, too, there is the election itself, fea-
lup for CNN and USA Today. At the same
Clinton led Bush by 21 points at a time when
good a story to avoid."
and may be particularly prone to error this
turing a three-way race and a candidate-
time, no fewer than four indicated the lead
other polls were showing the Democrat with
Even senior officials of the Gallup Or-
year," Mann said.
Ross Perot-who alternately enchants and
Wednesday was between 7 and 11 per-
a 10- to 15-point lead. The New York Times
ganization, which yesterday put Clinton's
One particularly worrisome group are
repels many voters, who appear to be
centage points-essentially where it has
and CBS News reported a 2 point Clinton
lead in the daily tracking poll at 3 points,
younger voters. Most typically do not vote.
bouncing between Perot, Bush and Clinton
been for the better part of a week.
margin following Bush's acceptance speech
cautioned against relying on theirs or any
But that may change. They have been tar-
in the polls with dismaying frequency.
A Washington Post survey released
in Houston last August, though most other
single poll to characterize this race.
geted by MTV and its "Rock the Vote" cam
As a consequence, some pollsters say,
Thursday showed Clinton's lead at 10
polls suggested a much larger Clinton edge.
"They should not place too much em-
paign. Polls suggest that these younger vot-
election results may be much different than
points. A Los Angeles Times poll pub-
Still, the impact of the latest Gallup poll
phasis on any single day's results," said
ers seem particularly attracted to Clinton
the findings of election-eve weekend polls.
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
'God Does Not
Endorse Candidates'
Clerics Condemn Anti-Clinton Epistle
Upbeat President,
Charged by Polls,
By Gustav Niebuhr
differ" in politics, said Saper-
Washington Post Staff Writer
stein, director of the Religious
Action Center of Reform Juda-
Steps Up Rhetoric
As the election campaign
ism. "From the Jewish stand-
draws to a close, here's one
point, God is not a Republican
more weighty issue voters may
or a Democrat. God does not
By Ann Devroy
wish to ponder: By casting a
Washington Post Staff Writer
endorse candidates."
ballot for Bill Clinton and Albert
As to the Democratic candi-
WARREN, Mich., Oct. 29-
Gore Jr., would they in fact be
dates' religious character, the
Pumped up by the polls and the mo-
risking God's wrath?
Rev. Jack Turner, retired pas-
ment, President Bush raced across
This question-a burning
tor of Mt. Vernon Baptist
Michigan today in rhetorical over-
one, in that it could involve the
Church in Arlington, where
drive, attacking the "way-out, far-
fate of one's soul-has been
Gore and his family worship,
out" Democratic ticket on every-
roiling some members of the
offered a positive report. In a
thing from northern spotted owls to
religious community, ever since
letter co-signed by Clinton's
his opponent's draft record.
a group of conservative Chris-
former pastor, the Rev. Brian
Bush, during his 12th campaign
tian activists put out a pamphlet
Harbour of Richardson, Tex., he
trip to this vital state, was intro-
this month warning that "to vote
stated that Clinton and Gore
duced at three stops in Detroit sub-
for Bill Clinton is to sin against
"are men whose heads and
urbs by Michigan Gov. John M. En-
God." The pamphlet-140,000
hearts have been baptized by
gler, who called the contest here
copies of which have been dis-
divine grace and mercy
We
"dead-even," the Democratic cam-
tributed by the antiabortion
believe their walk with God to
paign "dead in the water" and the
group Operation Rescue-says
be genuine and sincere."
Bush campaign "hot."
that voters supporting Clinton,
After the news conference,
And hot Bush was.
who favors abortion rights and
First Baptist's senior pastor, the
At a midday GOP rally at Ma-
gay rights, would help promote
Rev. Everett Goodwin, sought
comb Community College, the pres-
"rebellion against the 10 Com-
to frame the debate in theolog-
ident unleashed a rhetorical fusil-
mandments and other laws of
ical terms. It is permissible, he
lade on Bill Clinton and running
the Bible."
said, to say a stand on a partic-
mate Sen. Albert Gore Jr., attack-
Yesterday, a diverse group of
ular issue is morally wrong, but
ing their fitness for office, their
42 religious leaders—
one cannot identify a political
character and charging, "My dog
Protestants, Jews and Catho-
candidate with sin itself. "You're
Millie knows more about foreign
lics-signed a statement heat-
making a person the sin, rather
policy than these two bozos."
edly taking issue with that
than an issue," he said. "What
In particular, Bush targeted
claim, calling it a piece of "spir-
you've done is to incarnate evil,"
Gore, whom he now calls "Ozone
a role that in Christianity be-
itual arrogance and political ex-
Man," or just plain "Ozone." "You
longs ultimately to Satan alone.
tremism that has no place in our
know why I call him Ozone Man?"
Despite the criticism, the au-
public discourse." The group
the president said. "This guy is so
thors of the Operation Rescue
also denounced other anti-Clin-
far out in the environmental ex-
pamphlet remained unmoved.
ton mailings aimed at religious
treme, we'll be up to our neck in
"We're only quoting the Bible,"
groups that it said either dis-
owls and outta work for every
said the Rev. Lou Sheldon,
torted the facts or offered po-
American. He is way out, far out,
chairman of the Traditional Val-
man."
liticized "biblical positions" on
ues Coalition. "It's a grave mis-
While many of his aides were still
various issues.
take for Christians to vote for
"There is a terribly troubling
waking up, Bush started his morn-
Clinton and Gore."
tendency toward theocracy in
ing with an hour of television inter-
And the Rev. Keith Tucci,
all this," said James Dunn, a
See BUSH, A16, Col. 1
director of Operation Rescue,
signer of the statement and the
said that to back a candidate
director of the Baptist Joint
with Clinton's views would be to
Maryland's governor is expected
Committee for Public Affairs, a
abet sin-in itself a sinful act.
to endorse Bush today. Page DI
religious liberty watchdog agen-
"If you're driving the get-away
cy. "It smells a lot like the Mas-
car, you're guilty for what the
sachusetts Bay Colony," where
hold-up man does," he said. "It's
Puritan rulers maintained a
not up for debate."
heady mix of religion and pol-
And what if a person does
itics.
vote for Clinton. comes later to
Rabbi David Saperstein, who
believe it was sintui and wishes
joined Dunn at a news confer-
to be restored to grace? "They
ence at First Baptist Church,
ask Jesus to forgive them."
agreed. "Good, moral people can
Tucci said.
CIJP
smit
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
Clinton Campaign Seeks Permission for Loan
The Clinton campaign, planning to spend its $55 mil-
broke. They're embarassed," Malek said. "This is the
lion in federal money down "close to zero" by Election
first real test Bill Clinton has had in managing federal
Day, has asked permission to borrow $1 million to pay
funds and he's failed it."
bills right after Tuesday's voting.
Christine Varney, general counsel to the Clinton-
Bush-Quayle campaign officials immediately attacked
Gore campaign, who filed the request, said in an inter-
the Democrats' request to the Federal Election Com-
view that her committee is "targeted to hit close to zero
mission, saying it was an improper attempt to change
on Nov. 3." But she said the loan request was "not about
campaign rules just before the election to free up mon-
politics, and buying more television ads, but cash flow."
ey for last-minute political expenses, such as television
She said the committee anticipated about $1.2 million
commercials.
in reimbursements from the Secret Service, which has
Bush campaign manager Frederic V. Malek said at a
been late paying the campaign for travel on the candi-
news conference that the "panicked request for relief
dates' planes.
from profligate spending" should be rejected. "They're
-Charles R. Babcock
An Upbeat President
tightening of the polls reflects an
Steps Up the Rhetoric
electorate uneasy about Clinton's
character, and they are doing all
they can to keep the dialogue these
BUSH, From A1
president was finally on the move,
few remaining days on character,
without -mentioning the forbidden
rather than on the economy.
news, chortling about how Clinton
"Big Mo."
Bush occasionally got tongue tied
mad been "measuring the Oval Of-
In 1980, Bush won his first pres-
today as he went after his opponent.
ce for drapes" but that now the
idential caucus in Iowa and tried run-
He called New York Gov. Mario M.
nace had tightened.
ning as the candidate with "Big Mo,"
Cuomo, Mary Cuomo. He tried to
Bush, who dismissed pollsters as
big momentum. He was soundly de-
hit Clinton on the draft and it came
"hutty" just last week when they
feated because, many suggested, he
out like this: "You can't say I got an
howed him at least 10 or 12 points
based his candidacy on momentum
induction and then I didn't. You
ehind the Democrat, liked them
not issues. "We don't do Big Mo,"
can't say you wrote the man that
aore today when polls showed a far
said campaign political director Mary
once. You can't say that you're go-
Barrower lead for Clinton.
Matalin. "we do C.O., cautious opti-
ing to have one position and then
In a morning speech to the Cham-
mism." Their optimism is based on
another position you got to stand up
ter of Commerce, a more subdued
public and private polls that show a
for. Take a position. Lead. That's
Bush portrayed Clinton as a typical
single digit race-they say a six point
what being president is about. You
emocrat who would raise taxes,
difference-and an electoral break-
cannot lead by misleading."
crease spending, and return the
down that while not good, at least
And here is my appeal. Bar-
Nation to the high-inflation, high-un-
makes a win remotely possible if the
bara and I both have tried to uphold
employment era of Jimmy Carter.
closing trend continues.
the public trust. And character. Bill
But even there, Bush slipped into
The whole Bush campaign, in-
Clinton-Bruce Willis mentioned
this now-familiar garbled syntax in
cluding the warm up speakers, were
this, Bruce Willis said that, I mean,
Thich he forgets his audience may be
charged up today. At the Warren
Clinton said that it is not the charac-
Tearing a particular line for the first
event, Democratic state Sen. Gil-
ter of the president but the character
Time and fails to tell it the beginning
bert J. Dinello churned the crowd
of the presidency. Wrong. They're
a story. Or the end. Or the con-
into a frenzy by calling Clinton a
text.
draft-dodger, a liar and a man who
locked in. They are interlocked."
Noting he had criticized the news
"wails, whines and wimps out."
media for being unfair, he told those
Actor Bruce Willis shouted into
in the crowd they should not take
the microphone that Clinton was
their anger out on journalists. "Save
not qualified to be president. "I'm
your wrath for those faithless Repub-
pissed off," Willis shouted, to hear
licans and faithless Democrats who
the Democrat say he is qualified. At
a later rally, this one at the Gerald
wrote me off about two months ago,
Ford Library in Grand Rapids, Wil-
because we're going to show that
lis introduced the former president
anthole we are going to win this elec-
with the same complaints in lan-
tion."
guage rare for a political rally.
At a later rally, Bush straightened
Bush, too, hit on what he said were
out the rathole reference, citing
Clinton's lack of qualifications for the
President Harry S. Truman's com-
Oval Office because of "waffling" on
plaint that the pundits who predicted
issues. 100 can't be president 11 you
he would lose in 1948 "don't know
try to be all things to all people."
how to pound sand in a rathole."
Bush said. complaining Clinton had
Those writing him off, Bush said,
"if. ands and buts" to explain his po-
are like those 1948 pundits. Bush and
sitions on every issue. "You cannot
his aides, who practiced for months in
have a lot of buts in the Oval Office,"
dismissing what the president calls
Bush screamed, his voice growing
"gioom-and-doom" polls, had the
hoarse.
tricky task here today of arguing the
Bush aides maintain that the
sort alim
FRIDAY. OCTOBER 30, 1992
Democrat Scorns
Foe's 'Politics of
Denial, Division'
By Edward Walsh
Washington Post Staff Writer
JERSEY CITY, Oct. 29-Fight-
ing to hold together the coalition
that has put him within striking dis-
tance of the White House, Demo-
cratic presidential nominee Bill
Clinton swept across the nation's
industrial heartland today appealing
to voters to reject "the politics of
denial and division and blame which
the Bush administration has visited
on this country for too long."
In a low-key address at the Uni-
versity of Toledo and a lectern-
pounding, almost angry speech to a
huge get-out-the-vote rally later in
Detroit, Clinton wrapped himself in
the mystique of President John F.
Kennedy and his brother Robert F.
Kennedy.
On the surface Clinton was se-
rene and confident, but as the days
before Tuesday's voting dwindle
there is renewed tension within his
campaign and a gnawing worry
about the impact of President
Bush's continuing assault on his
character and trustworthiness.
"The man has no core convic-
tions," Clinton said of Bush before a
morning jog in Toledo. "This is a
guy here who would literally say or
BY FRANK KOHNSTON-THE WASHINGTON POST
do anything to get elected. And any-
In Michigan, Bush said, "Millie knows more about foreign policy" than Clinton.
time you're an incumbent president
and you don't have any standards,
they spent the day nervously
sponse to a Bush ad attacking Clin-
you have a chance to win. I have
scrambling to purchase additional
ton's record in Arkansas and a fresh
always thought I was the under-
television time for a new round of
assault on Bush's record on the
dog."
ads and redrawing Clinton's week-
economy.
As Clinton pressed his case to-
end schedule to protect several key
Democratic and Republican strat-
day, top aides in Little Rock tried to
battleground states that he must
egists agreed that Texas and Flor-
fight off impressions that the race
carry to win the election.
ida, two states where Clinton cam-
had tightened significantly. But
The new ads include a tough re-
paigned this week, are now moving
toward the president, while Georgia
Experts say presidential race isn't as confused as poll results. Page A16
See CLINTON, A16, Col. 4
VIJE
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
Democrat Fights to Bind Coalition
ican politician until this election to
voters, who he said have not decid-
CLINTON, From AI
try to ask people to join together
ed to vote "because they're satisfied
and North Carolina, states long on
across racial lines, to seize common
with the way things are."
Clinton's target list, remain ex-
opportunities and to tear down
At the University of Toledo,
tremely competitive. At the same
common problems."
speaking in a measured tone, he
time, they said Bush's daylong visit
He went on to quote Kennedy as
returned to his core campaign mes-
to Ohio on Wednesday had substan-
saying that 'if we fail to dare, if we
sage on the economy and the need
tially strengthened his position
do not try, the next generation will
for change. The choice to be made
there and agreed that New Jersey,
harvest the fruit of our indiffer-
on Tuesday, he said, "is as old as
where Clinton held a double-digit
ence' and inherit 'a world we did
America-a choice between more
lead before the debates, now is
not want, did not choose, but a
of the same and fundamental
within a few points.
world we could have made better.'
change, a choice between those
But the strategists were in sharp
The audience rocked Cobo Hall
who believe we can do better and
disagreement over the state of the
with wild cheers as Clinton repeat-
those who think things are all right
race in such other key states as
edly echoed John Kennedy's 1960
the way they are, between those
Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and
campaign call that "we can do bet-
who have a limited view of our
Tennessee, with Republicans saying
ter," and by the end of his speech
country and those who understand
the president put those states into
his final words were drowned out by
that America must be a nation of
the toss-up category and claiming
the roar of the crowd.
boundless hopes and dreams."
the momentum heading into the
From Detroit, Clinton flew here
"When Mr. Bush looks at an anx-
weekend.
late this afternoon to fulfill a prom-
ious and frightened America and
Clinton's pollster Stan Greenberg
ise he made to a group of New York
tells us this is as good as it gets,
disputed suggestions that Clinton's
AIDS activists in April, promising in
that says something worse about
lead is slipping away. "I think [the
a speech to boost government fund-
his presidency than anything I could
race] was closing in the first part of
ing for AIDS research and treat-
ever say," Clinton added.
the week," Greenberg said. "The
ment and accusing the Bush admin-
Clinton has struggled throughout
polling from Tuesday and Wednes-
istration of indifference to the dis-
the fall to keep attention focused on
day has been very steady.
On
ease.
the economy, but in the campaign's
this day, both nationally and in bat-
Clinton promised a sweeping pro-
final days the president's mounting
tleground states, we show a very
gram of AIDS education, guaran-
assault on him has provoked a se-
steady race."
teed access to "affordable, quality
ries of harsh counterattacks and led
For Clinton, the next four days
care" for those infected with the
him to spend more time condemn-
will be a frenzy of travel as he hop-
AIDS virus, increased availability of
ing Bush's campaign tactics than his
scotches back and forth through
experimental treatments for the
economic performance.
key industrial battlegrounds and
disease and to fight discrimination
He has described as "baldface
several southern states still in play.
against AIDS patients.
lies" some of the radio commercials
The Arkansas governor hopes to
"The truth is [AIDS] is every-
being run by his opponent and today
boost Democratic turnout in the na-
body's problem, not only because it
he complained that "there is no
tion's big cities and hold on to the
is spreading throughout society, but
standard of truth in the Bush cam-
suburban voters who abandoned his
because the sheer cost and burden
paign" and that the president
party in the 1980s but who are dis-
of dealing with the AIDS crisis may
"wasn't telling the truth" in the
illusioned with Bush and have been
absolutely consume all the gains we
campaign.
attracted by Clinton's promise of
hope to make in straightening out
"There is one guiding principle:
fundamental economic change.
the other problems in our health
Stay in power at all cost," Clinton
That coalition is his key to vic-
care system," he said. "It costs ev-
said. "Tell them whatever you think
tory, and today in Detroit he in-
eryone in ways that are financial
will scare them about their oppo-
voked the memory of Robert Ken-
and human and moral. We can't af-
nents. The American people are
nedy in an appeal to his supporters
ford the cost in dollars and death."
going to have to think a long time.
to stay with him through the final
But at this stage of the campaign,
before they want four more years of
brutal hours of the campaign.
policy speeches count for far less
this. It will be a miserable experi-
"Twenty-five years ago, Senator
than Clinton's last-minute drive to
ence for them."
Robert Kennedy said something we
energize his supporters and win
ought to all think about between
over the remaining undecided, es-
Staff writers David Maraniss with
now and Election Day," Clinton
pecially young people, whom he has
Clinton and Dan Balz in
said. "In a very difficult, divided
courted in visits to dozens of college
Washington contributed to this
time, he was perhaps the last Amer-
campuses, and newly registered
report.
ene
JJUS
By Michael Isikoff
tricks. But he insisted it was entire-
Washington Post Staff Writer
ly reasonable for him to have be-
lieved such stories, especially when
DALLAS, Oct. 29-As new polls
senior White House aides failed to
showed his support eroding, Ross
deny them over the summer after
Perot sought to rally his troops to-
he raised them privately.
night, touting a new blitz of net-
"Is it thinkable that these wonder-
work "infomercials" he will run the
ful people in the Republican Party
last two nights before the election
might do that?" Perot asked. "This is
and predicting a "landslide victory"
the same party that gave us Water-
on Tuesday.
gate. This is the same party that
Appearing on "Larry King Live,"
gave us Iran-contra. This is the same
Perot said tonight he "absolutely" re-
party that's up to its ears in Iraqgate
grets raising his unsubstantiated al-
now.
So there's a pattern here.
legtions of Republican "dirty tricks"
"Now, I hope they didn't do it. And
on national television last weekend.
I take their word they didn't do it.
Those charges precipitated a wave of
But I will wonder 50 years from now,
news media questions and attacks by
political opponents that Perot aides
if I'm still around, why they just
today acknowledged had stopped his
didn't come back to me and say,
'Ross, we don't know what you're
campaign's momentum and caused
his support to drop back below 20
talking about.'
percent in tracking polls released
Earlier, attempting to refute
over the past two days.
charges that Ross Peret is trying to
Perot Predicts a Landslide Victory' Tuesday
Independent Candidate Says He 'Absolutely' Regrets Raising Allegation of Dirty Tricks
But Perot tonight dismissed the
buy the presidency, campaign aides
to the Texas billionaire released
polls as irrelevant, saying he will be
propelled to victory by a massive
figures they said show Perot has
outpouring of newly registered vot-
been greatly outspent by his two
ers. "We're going to win all 50
major rivals, and the aides called for
an overhaul of the nation's cam-
states," Perot said. "We're going to
win a landslide victory. We're in a
paign-finance system.
two-minute drill."
According to aides, Perot has
He also urged supporters to
bought 3½ hours of prime time pro-
watch a new "infomercial" to be
gramming for Sunday and Monday,
televised Sunday night that he said
including one-hour blocks on NBC
he will hammer home with new vig-
each night.
or his economic message to voters.
Campaign spending reports filed
"We're going to have a program
with the Federal Election Commis-
that may get turned into a television
sion show that since reentering the
series," Perot said of the Sunday
race Oct. 1, Perot has spent more
night broadcast, one of a series he
than $37 million, almost all of it his
has paid to run the last two nights be-
own money and exceeding the ex-
fore the election. "It's deep voodoo,
penditures of President Bush and Bill
chicken feathers and the American
Clinton.
dream."
But Perot adviser and son-in-law
Warmed by the friendly atmos-
Clay Mulford said that when "soft-
phere of the King show, and clearly
money" contributions to the two
encouraged by some of the callers,
political parties are counted along
including actress-singer Cher, who
with federal government matching
endorsed him, Perot appeared far
funds received by the Bush and
more relaxed and confident than he
Clinton campaigns, the Republican
did three days ago during a stormy
and Democratic presidential cam-
news conference in Dallas. That
paigns outspent Perot by close to 3
event, in which Perot lashed out at
to 1 for the entire year.
reporters for what he called their
Mulford called the current cam-
"twisted" stories, revolved in part
paign finance system "alarming" and
around Perot's inability to provide
said it was rigged in favor of the two
proof of charges he made Sunday on
major parties. As a result, he said,
CBS's "60 Minutes" that Republican
Perot favors a thorough overhaul,
"dirty tricks operatives" had plotted
including the elimination of soft-mon-
to smear his daughter with a doc-
ey contributions to the two major
tored photograph, disrupt his wed-
parties, the abolition of political ac-
ding and wiretap his business office.
tion committees and strict limitations
Perot repeated tonight that he
of $1,000 each on all individual con-
accepts the denials of White House
tributions to candidates.
and Republican campaign officials of
The proposal to eliminate soft
any involvement in such dirty
money is roughly similar to proposals
put forward in Congress including a
soft money during the general elec-
bill that Bush vetoed this year.
tion campaign, and Clinton had ben-
Wealthy individuals can evade the
efited from $26.1 million in Dem-
$1,000 contribution limit to pres-
ocratic soft money Mulf to
idential candidates by giving unlim-
leased a chart showing that, when
ited amounts to the Republican and
the soft money and publicly fi-
Democratic parties. Corporate do-
nanced figures are added, the Bush
nations, which are banned to indi-
and Clinton campaigns each bene-
vidual candidates, also make up part
fited from roughly $167 million in
of the soft money. The two parties
expenditures apiece compared to
can invest these contributions on
$59.9 million spent by Perot this
generic, party-oriented advertising
year as of this week.
that, while not specifically mention-
Although such disclosures have
ing the presidential nominees, in-
been routine for major party pres-
directly benefits them by encour-
idential candidates in recent years,
gaing voters to cast Republican or
Perot concluded that releasing his
Democratic ballots.
tax and medical records at this late
By Mulford's calculations, based
date would only "deflect" attention
on FEC reports, Bush had benefited
from the major issues, campaign
from $38.6 million in Republican
spokeswoman Sharon Holman said.
Hillary Clinton and the
Laws of the Campaign
No Longer a Liability, She's Making a Quieter Case
By Donnie Radcliffe
She's almost laughing, but not quite. She's playing her
the Woman, everybody's favorite target for all that's
Washington Post Staff Writer
part: the tough lawyer. And enjoying it.
dangerous about being independent, smart, impatient,
"We liberated him," shouted another.
articulate, outspoken, ambitious-and while she's at it, a
WILSON, N.C.
he donkey did it.
One report, unconfirmed, was that the ragged photogs
three-fer: wife, mother and successful corporate lawyer.
T
had "liberated" this symbol of the Democratic Party from
By any standard, Hillary Clinton has been a handful for
"The highlight of my birthday," said Hillary
deep in the heart of Jesse Helms country-the front
America to deal with.
Clint n of the life-size papier-mache animal that
steps of the Raleigh City Hall-and given it to Clinton in
had her trying to stifle a laugh.
Yet Clinton has made it through to the end. Past all
celebration of her 45th birthday. They'd surprised her
last spring's scrutiny as the would-be co-president, the
Did it have 8 name? Could she touch it? Where'd they
with it while she was working the rope line, shaking
find it?
feisty political helpmate, the wronged wife, the
hands and hugging babies.
disavowing cookie baker. Past the summer of GOP
"I want to know if I'm receiving stolen goods," she
"They just crack me up," she said of these chroniclers
discontent when a political convention focused an
said, arching an eyebrow-you know, the way any
of her every move. And it seemed that this woman who
amazing amount of energy on the opponent's wife as
skeptical lawyer might lay it on the line to prospective
was once viewed as unapproachable cracked them up as
"that dowdy feminazi" with views so "radical" they
clients of somewhat dubious repute.
well.
FRIDAY,OCTOBER 30, 1992
threatened to untie the very apron strings of American
"We can't say," yelled back one of the photo-dogs from
momism. Past, too, the discarded preppy headbands and
a Clinton-Gore campaign bus in the 16-vehicle caravan
mannish suits on the way to the crucial final perception:
that was cruising across the state.
It hasn't been easy being the Woman in this Year of
See HILLARY, B4, Col. 1
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
Hillary
cifics of her own priorities other thar.
that they will relate to maternal and
child health care.
"Among Bill's priorities is dealing
Clinton
with the health care system, and I am
particularly adamant that whateve:
we do
if we had a decent prenata
care system and early childhooc
health care system we would be sav-
HILLARY, From B1
ing money in a relatively short period
a softer, gentler, warmer Hillary
of time," she said.
who waves a lot these days but no
But she also shows a keen aware-
longer makes them, and with whom
ness of just what sort of world of lim-
not just feminists but many voters can
its her husband may be buying into.
feel more comfortable-whether they
"Nobody really knows what the finan-
intend to pull the lever for her husband
cial situation is," she said. "There's 2
or not.
great concern that Bul will be elected
If the political process has brought
president and begin to see a great un-
her to this, then so be it At this point
raveling, which is always a dange:
in the campaign, the polls indicate she
when you assume an office but seems
is no longer a liability to Bill Clinton: in
particularly acute now because of the
a variety of surveys, her "negatives"
disarray in this government. The ex-
are down from their startlingly high
traordinary spectacle of agencies in-
levels of the spring. She's no Barbara
Hillary Clinton and daughter Chelsea smiling for a campaign photograph
vestigating one another and pointing
Bush. but she doesn't appear to be a
fingers at one another suggest tha:
drag on the ticket either. It is a gratify-
the political process has succeeded in
Change" buses cutting a 200-mile
there's just a lot that is not right an.
ing shift accomplished by a determined
reining in women a few steps.
swath between Winston-Salem and
we probably don't even know abou:
woman who's been through what oth-
But Hillary Clinton sees the conflict
Kinston was a hard-driving effort to
it."
ers might regard as a devastating ex-
as inevitable and also momentary-
erase the tire tracks of the Bush ma-
perience but which she calls "remark-
"some last step" of symbolic impor-
chine that had rolled through a few
Cat's Out of the Bag
ably positive."
tance that hasn't happened before be-
days earlier.
"You go back and look at the kinds of
cause we haven't had people contend-
We may be the only state in the
Chelsea Clinton, 12, had no trouble
things that happened this year," she
ing for the presidency who were born
union that goes for Bush," fretted Sam
at all putting away a gigantic slice of
said the other day, "and so much of it
after World War II, who were really
Ervin's cousin, Burgess McSwain,
her mother's chocolate birthday cake,
part of this change."
who drove miles to wait, like others
even with the reporters coming out of
was not about me or my husband. so
far as know and care about our life to-
For all the criticism, she says, she's
the walls at Robinson's Restaurant in
among the already converted. at one
gether. It was politically motivated. off
been gratified by the people who've
of the "imprompar" stops in towns
Greensboro. Between bites, Hillary
reached out to identify with her with
where statues of Confederate soldiers
kept a motherly eye trained. finally
base. You have to learn how to take
signs like, "Stay at Home Moms for
political attacks seriously but not per-
tower above courthouse squares;
dispatching an aide to run interfer-
Hillary."
ence.
sonally 30 that you don't let them inter-
where words carved in granite remind
"I think they hope that with Bill and
fere with who you are."
that "on fame's eternal camping
"We have Chelsea out because we
Al and Tipper and me there will be
ground their silent tents are
figured the last bus trip would be a
What she did take seriously was how
people who understand what's going
spread
and where cafeterias like
special occasion," Hillary told owner
those attacks appeared from the out-
on in the country right now at the very
Ruth's never did have a "g" on the
Roosevelt Robinson.
side, and thus it was her outside that
basic level, and have a grasp about the
"Home Cookin" sign painted above the
Sarah Gore, 13, was out, too, and
she changed. "I knew that what was
challenges that families are facing and
front door.
self-consciously standing together at
being said wasn't true. I took it seri-
that women in particular are confront-
Talkin' Southern wasn't all that
times, or sitting on a lawn in front of
ously because obviously if people
ing."
hard. Illinois-born, Wellesley- and
the candidates, they giggled and whis-
thought that, or if the political system
Yale-educated Hillary Clinton learned
pered and had what Hillary later de-
was being manipulated by people who
Buscapades
long ago to drop her g's with the best
scribed as a "2 different take on it, the
wanted people to think that, one had to
If she's playing a role, she seems to
of 'en In remarks that turned out to
kinds of things they see. At one point
take that seriously."
be her longest of the day, she apolo-
Tipper and I were up there laughing
She thought all the Hillary bashing
be playing it with ease. That's easiest
gized for being late and recalled the
just watching Chelsea and Sarah in the
was "sad, at first," but the intensity left
to see in the looseness on the cam-
her surprised. then hurt. Once she ana-
paign bus. Comic relief is the escape
time they vowed not to stop ever
crowd."
lyzed why GOP strategists went after
valve in this grueling cocoon of cam-
again because they were runnin' three
According to her mother, Chelsea
paign madness. "You sort of got to de-
hours behind.
is well aware of what's happening and
her, she came to the conclusion they
velop a sense of humor," said Bill Clin-
"All of a sudden we heard there
what would happen if BII Clinton wins
were scared. "You don't spend two or
three days at a national political con-
ton the other day when the
were about 250 to 300 people up in a
"But my concern is just giving her the
countdown to Election Day '92 had
rest stop hopin' the buses would stop.
chance to have ber own life, to be able
vention beating up on someone unless
you're scared. It was a deliberate strat-
dropped below the 200-hour mark.
Bill said, 'What are we going to do?
to grow up as normally as possible if
"Sometimes you laugh just to keep
and everybody said, Well, we just
she's living in the White House. And
egy. In kind of a backhanded way was
from crying." Tipper Gore did more
going to have to go right by them. Bill
that's what I'm going to be focused on
complimented. I figured. Wow! Listen
didn't like that but finally agreed and
if the day after the election we wake
to this!"
than bugh She had a whale of a good
the buses were goin' by kind of slow
up and that's what we have to start
And she broke into bughter, just re-
time aiming her camera and, at the
membering how it struck her.
Greensboro, N.C., airport one night,
and he was wavin' out the window and
planning." said Hillary.
aiming her squirt gun at Al Gore's
all of a sudden he saw a sign that a
What she hasn't focused on is
Ultimately she found comfort in a
man was holdin' that said Give us
Socks, Chelsea's 215-year-old cat who
strange quarter: Richard Nixon. She
aides spilling off his plane onto the tar-
mac. She scored bull's-eyes right and
eight minutes and we'll give you eight
is not at afi "standoffish or aloof but
recalled that the first person to attack
left, including one on a hapless report-
years' and Bill said, Stop the bus!"
warm and loving and noble" and made
her Out of the Blue before even the
er watching from the sidelines. The
You could call it a kind of stand-by-
them all feel better when they got
New Hampshire primary heated up
was Nixon.
next day, during 2 hoke-it-up photo op
your-man story.
him-even if Hillary and Bill are aller-
aboard their customized bus, Tipper
gic to him.
Certainly, it could have been be-
and Hillary climbed onto the laps of
Early Hillary
The interview took an unexpected
cause "be never forgets anything" and
their spouses for the benefit of still
1 mean," said Hillary Clinton, "if all
turn when she asked if what a Secret
she had once been a staff attorney on
the Senate staff that studied his im-
photographers. (Video photo-dogs
I thought was going to happen was
Service agent told them-that there
boycotted the session because their
are mice and rats in the White
peachment in 1974. But she preferred
moving into the White House and go-
reporters were barred.)
ing to Camp David for weekends, hav-
House possibly be true.
to believe the other Noxon, the grand
"This is home away from home,"
ing a ceremonial role, I think that DEF
And if Barbara Bush really did find
old political analyst who saw abead of
said Hillary.
ther Bill nor I nor the Gores would be
a rat doing the backstroke in the
others that "there was a lot going on
"If we win this thing," added her
there. I mean, that is just not what's
swimming pool?
under the surface of this country and
husband, "we're going to park this bus
at stake in this election."
Maybe it was visions of Socks to
people were amxious for change."
out behind the White House."
There. She's said it. In an inter-
the rescue but suddenly Hillary
"He was launching a preemptive at-
Winning "this thing" is still any-
view, some of the early-1992 version
cheered "Yeah, Socks! Socks might be
tack," abe says, "to try and in some:
body's guess.
of Hillary comes out. She may not be
the happiest human-or animal-be-
way denigrate my husband because
Hillary tries not to think about it
making headlines anymore, but she
ing moving to Washington. I wonder if
he's unafraid of smart and intelligent
very much, or about how in less than a
has not retreated into a shell. Recent
we could show him pictures of rats?"
women and really believes that women
week now her life may never again be
impressions aside, her words make
Buoyed by the news that there
ought to have opportunities to serve."
the same. "Partly because I'm refuc-
clear that anyone who thinks she
hasn't been a First Cat since Amy
True or not, Our gainers strengtift
tant to speculate tike that. It's like a
would be a passive First Lady isn't
Carter oved at 1000, and that cai jur-
where one can.
no-hit game. It's going well We feel
paying close enough attention.
ers of the country would probably feel
The outcome of this kind of Hillary
we're getting the campaign message
Unlike traditional political wives of
enfranchised again, she regained her
bashing has been one of the great sub-
across and I just don't even want to
the past. she has no misgivings about
composure as campaign strategist.
themes of the campaign, turning the
imagine" anything beyond the mo-
talking issues. She has never stopped
"Exit Poll," she said, playing the
race on one level into an ongoing na-
ment.
being one of her husband's key advis-
poll-taker. "Did you vote for the Clin-
tional seminar on the role of women
In Helmsland (renamed "Hillary-
ers and when she wants to, she speaks
tons because they have a cat?
Looking at the newer, quieter Hillary,
land" on oversized birthday buttons
with authority. She also intends to
The potential was mind-boggling.
some might even conclude that the
passed out by family pal Brook Shear-
have her own issues, though she
"I love it!" she cried, convilsed by
outcome of this debate has been that
er), the Clinton-Gore "Road to
claims she hasn't determined the spe-
laughter. "Oh, god, love it"
USA TODAY
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 1992
GOP campaign has
abused 'character' issue
Using innuendo and
ing Joe McCarthy tactics to suggest trai-
OUR VIEW
torous motives in Clinton's 1969 trip to
personal attacks to
Moscow, utterly without support.
describe a candidate's character
GOP chairman Rich Bond and oth-
has no place in this campaign.
er Republicans falsely tying Hillary Clin-
President Bush is right.
ton's scholarly essays on children's
Character plays a big role in any elec-
rights with the usurpation of parental
tion. Trust is a useful measure of any
rights.
candidate, par-
By the time these sorry episodes tailed
ticularly those
ELECTION '92
off this month, the State Department
seeking the high-
was digging through its files for dirt on
An occasional senes
est office of the
Clinton's mother. Unbelievable.
land.
All of this might be good entertain-
But when "character" and "trust" -
ment if no one took it seriously. But
words that should apply to a person's
some do, distracting attention from the
ability and judgment to lead - become
more crucial issues in this election.
simply slogans to cover smear tactics
Who will select the next Supreme
that have little to do with the country's
Court justice? Whose economic pro-
future, it is the accuser whose character
grams will get the country moving
should be called into question.
again? Which candidate is best suited to
This year, the Bush/Quayle re-elec-
spearhead our growth at home and secu-
tion efforts, sanctioned and unsanc-
rity around the world?
tioned, win the smear title hands down.
The candidates have given voters
A smattering of examples:
enough evidence to answer those and
House Minority Whip Newt Ging-
other questions that will decide the fate
rich linking Woody Allen and Mia Far-
of the nation. They differ widely.
row's breakup to Clinton's views on
Character, too, is an issue in this elec-
family values.
tion. But what voters should keep in
California congressman Robert
mind on Election Day is that trivia and
Dornan - and later Bush himself - us-
innuendo are little help in defining it.
Character is the issue
OPPOSING VIEW
Character is
to choose the principled right over the
critical. In
unprincipled wrong.
the Oval Office, character alone
Character is the central element gov-
shapes the tough decisions.
erning our personal conduct. The
I
threads of all our characters weave the
All U.S. presidents have found the
fabric of our national character.
Oval Office a lonely place. President
Character answers the nation's call to
Harry Truman said that's where the
arms or, alternatively, claims conscien-
buck stops.
tious-objector status, takes up the med-
Yet there's another
ic's medical bag and shares the danger of
lonely office: the vot-
the battlefield. Character presses on in
ing booth. There the
the face of enemy fire.
buck stops with the
Character admits mistakes without
American people. In
dissembling or shifting blame to others.
lonely isolation, we
Character tells the whole truth up front.
each make our choice
Character provides the grit to take firm
affecting the nation's
destiny for the next
By William Ham-
stands and not promise everything to
ilton, a synuicat-
four years.
ed columnist and
Character keeps the wedding vows
In representative
former Republi-
when temptation flowers. Character
government. we hand
can campaign
consultant.
keeps the White House from becoming
the scepter of power
the Penthouse. If character doesn't mat-
to the candidate we trust will do right by
ter. why did we go through the agony of
us and by the nation. That trúst rests
Watergate? Or. as Rush Limbaugh put
upon our judgment of the character of
it, "If character doesn't matter, why isn't
the president we choose because, in the
Ted Kennedy president?"
loneliness of the Oval Office. it is charac-
On Tuesday we decide if character
ter and character alone that shapes the
counts. We'll learn something about the
tough decisions, that enables a president
American character as well.
USA TODAY FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30. 1992
Hell in a handbasket
not in election cards
families.
Never mind the caustic closing campaign rhetoric. The
I have seen children be-
their ability to support their
jobless men, who had lost
hope flicker from the eyes of
I watched the flame of
erable in the midst of plenty.
watched other people be mis-
For 12 years, I have
dren, our families.
USA will not go to hell in a handbasket no matter who wins
the presidential election.
Many of you fear wrack or ruin if your candidate loses.
dead-end street, for our chil-
spirited downhill course, a
chance to veer from a mean-
That ticket may be our last
board is a ticket - a vote.
this Tuesday. All we need to
other kind of train coming
For many of us, there is an-
throwing him off the train.
voted in 25 years. I felt like
this week who said he had not
I met a guy on the subway
Not likely. Here's why:
The other contenders aren't as bad as you may think.
Yours probably isn't quite as good as you believe.
I'm inviolably independent politically, as all journalists
should be. I don't tell anyone how I vote. And don't suggest
to anyone how they should.
More and more journalists
and newspapers see it that
way. This year, about one-third
of the USA's dailies will not en-
dorse, including some biggies
those in power went on with
or shot down in the streets, as
tossed onto human junk piles,
come disposable, abused,
COLUMNIST
REYNOLDS
BARBARA
like USA TODAY. Inform and
debate, but don't dictate.
From that objective perspec-
tive, there's more comfort than
concern about Tuesday's elec-
tion cards.
I've watched presidents
closely since 1948. As a journal-
AL
ist, I've visited in the White
House with every president
NEUHARTH
since Eisenhower. Kennedy.
Johnson. Nixon. Ford. Carter.
USA TODAY FOUNDER
Reagan. Bush.
I've respected some more
than others. Liked some more. But considered each worthy
of the Oval office.
cold cement for pillows. In
and in railway stations with
slept in cars, under bridges
heartbreak as more families
watched on the verge of
small towns and big cities and
walked through the streets of
As an avid traveler, I have
poor or sick and needed jobs.
problem was that they were
and hopeless when their real
ple be labeled as underclass
watched new groups of peo-
better than that.
joy rides.
I have swallowed hard as I
And I knew we could do
I, the taxpayers, paid for their.
from the S&L while you and
gaining tax breaks, stealing
I have watched the rich
business as usual.
Our political system has produced at least two qualified
candidates every four years. Sometimes more.
This year, qualities of the top three vary widely. Each has
his own very distinct and different philosophy, policy and
style. That gives you a clear-cut choice.
Depending on who wins, here's how our course is likely
to curve:
Bush: A bit more to the right.
Clinton: A little to the left.
Perot: Occasionally weaving from side to side.
chance. His message: The
Bill Clinton deserves a
How wrong I was.
But no president has run us off the road in over 200 years.
Our checks and balances control that. So the USA can't lose
Tuesday.
er in a kinder, gentler nation.
believed that Bush would ush-
Four years ago, I actually
the answer.
change. George Bush is not
This nation cries out for
as the yachts.
boats, the leaky ones as well
nomic plan that will lift all
ready to unify around an eco-
want hope not hate. They are
whites, browns and blacks
tility when the polls show
I am tired of the racial hos-
tion could do better than that.
no place to go. I knew the na-
sleeping on the sidewalk with
woman with one leg. sick,
If your choice wins, celebrate and enjoy. If not, relax and
New York City, I saw a young
Clinton can put the nation back on the right track
keep up your cause. Either way, if you vote you win.
FEEDBACK
Other views on the election
rection.
"I disagree. Clinton and Gore represent a new genera-
tion of leadership for America. Four more years of George
Bush would be a disaster for America."
this time going in the right di-
chance to get moving again,
ashamed.
- Ron Brown, Democratic National Committee
"There is a stark contrast between Bush's vision and
his opponent's. People need those
On Tuesday, we have a
good about tomorrow, not
dreams than fears, to feel
I want to have -more
able, uncaring, unproductive.
been stuck too long anmov-
where, as a nation, we have
ment can unclog the tracks
fixed by politics, but govern-
Not all problems can be
the welfare moms.
dents, politicians, as well as
one, the corporations, stu-
winner if it includes every-
pay back. That message is a
will help you, but you have to
want a chance, his programs
free rides are over. If you
ences and when they do, they'll support President Bush."
- Tony Mitchell, Republican National Committee
"A president is never the savior we hope he be, but he
doesn't have the power to screw things up the way we
fear.
Norm Ornstein, American Enterprise Institute
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