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29
4
THE
SUN.
DEC 5 '991
Circulation 233,539
Science adviser
to Bush criticized
on ozone data
By Liz Bowie 17A
A leading authority on ozone said
yesterday that President Bush is re-
ceiving "abysmal" scientific advice
from his science adviser, D. Allan
Bromley.
"I don't recall in 17 years of scl-
ence hearing a talk with so many
errors." said Sherwood Rowland,
who was the first to theorize that
man-made chemicals called chloro-
fluorocarbons were destroying the
Earth's protective ozone layer.
Speaking at an international con-
ference of atmospheric scientists at
the Stouffer Harborplace Hotel on
Tuesday, Dr. Bromley said that the
United States should move slowly in
placing new controls on the produc-
tion of greenhouse gases thought to
contribute to global warming.
Dr. Rowland noted several exam-
ples of what he said were scientific
inaccuracies in Dr. Bromley's
speech, including his description of
the chemical process that destroys
ozone in the upper atmosphere.
"He is out of touch with the scien-
tific community," Dr. Rowland said,
adding that European scientists at
the conference were appalled by the
level of advice the president is receiv-
ing. Dr. Rowland is a chemist at the
University of California at Irvine. Dr.
Bromley is a former physicist at Yale
University.
Mr. Edward S. Goldstein
Office of Policy Development
The White House
1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
37
Washington, DC 20006
The Ballas Morning Nelus
DEC
4
Circulation 398,116
Out of step?
Oryx's downsizing leaves many guessing
if independent oil company has stumbled
By Maria Halkias
ORYX ENERGY STOCK PRICE
Staff Writer of The Dallas Morning News
The way management tells it, no one
$55
being laid off from Oryx Energy Co. should
be too surprised.
ORYX
At the end of its third year of existence,
50
the nation's largest independent oil and gas
company is shrinking but only "temporar-
ily."
45
As Robert P. Hauptfuhrer, Oryx chair-
man and chief executive officer, sees it, the
firm's "vision has been constant. The strat-
egies have been basically the same.
40
"We've just had to accelerate our plans,"
he said in a recent interview. A significant
restructuring announced in October that
eliminates 1,000 jobs and accelerates the
35
sale of assets will return Oryx to a position
of growth by the end of next year, he said.
Nonetheless, employees are bitter. Out-
30
siders are scratching their heads and Wall
Street investors are taking a wait-and-see at-
titude toward a company that has failed to
25
meet expectations.
Jan.'89
Jul.'89
Jan.'90
Jul.'90
Jan.'91
Jul .'91
"The antelope stumbles," one Wall Street
Apr.'89
Oct.'89
Apr.90
Oct.90
Apr.'91
Oct.'91
analyst wrote recently about Oryx, named
after the large straight-horned African an-
SOURCE: RI/McGraw-Hill
telope.
Since it was spun off from its former par-
But Oryx hoped it wouldn't
"We started immediately work-
ent, Radnor, Pa.-based Sun Co., in late 1988,
have to deal with the prospect of a
ing on trying to re-enter the inter-
Oryx has experienced a hyperactive three
large chunk of its stock being
national business," after the com-
years that included taking on large
placed in the market until much
pany was spun off with only do-
amounts of debt, in at least one instance,
later, Mr. Hauptfuhrer said. "It
mestic oil and gas reserves, Mr.
quicker than management had intended.
was a divestment that was certain
Hauptfuhrer said. "We recognized
In late 1990, the company was set back
to happen at some time," he said.
if we wanted to grow - a primary
when its largest shareholder, the
The repurchase came at a time
objective - we had to look for
Glenmede Trust, said its Oryx in-
when Oryx's stock was trading at
reserves in some of the more
vestment violated its charitable
near a high in 1990, and Mr.
promising basins, only a few of
Hauptfuhrer credits the com-
which remained in the United
trust covenants. It placed the $1
pany's successes with creating
States."
billion stock holding up for sale.
Management decided to borrow
Glenmede's desire to sell.
At the same time, Oryx got
more money to repurchase the
In hindsight, that decision
Wall Street's attention by reveal-
shares despite a stated strategy of
along with the collapse in already
ing its successful use of horizon-
debt reduction.
depressed natural gas prices in
tal drilling technology, setting off
Glenmede's decision was one
1991 compounded problems for
a mini boom in the South Texas
the company expected. The Oryx
Oryx.
Austin Chalk. Oryx's stock price
holdings represented a dispropor-
The company entered the in-
bounded to more than $50 a share
tionate share of the foundation's
ternational market, buying $1 bil-
in late 1990 after initially trading
$3.5 billion portfolio, and with a
lion in assets from British Petro-
in the mid-$20s - aided by in-
$1.20 a share annual dividend the
leum three years ago after it was
flated oil prices following Iraq's
stock didn't produce the mini-
divested.
invasion of Kuwait.
mum return on investment re-
quired by the trust.
CONTINUED
38
DEC
4
THE
SUN.
'99l
Circulation 233,539
Bush adviser rejects new limits on
By Douglas Birch
4A
greenhouse gases
A leading architect of the nation's
science policy cautioned yesterday
House science adviser, speaking at
would be.
that the United States should contin-
the opening of "Chemrawn VII," a
Dr. Bromley cited recent evidence
ue to move slowly in placing new
five-day meeting in Baltimore of at-
that ozone-destroying chlorofluoro-
controls on the production of green-
mospheric scientists from around
carbons, once thought to be potent
house gases thought to contribute to
the world.
greenhouse gases, make no net con-
global warming.
"Fundamental questions of great
tribution to warming.
"Our scientific understanding of
importance remain unanswered,"
"Preliminary" findings from re-
climate change is far from certain,"
said the former Yale physicist, ad-
search now under way, he said, sug-
said D. Allan Bromley, the White
dressing several hundred scientists
gest that another major greenhouse
at the Stouffer Harborplace Hotel.
suspect, methane, may also have no
Too little is known about the chemis-
net warming effect.
try of the atmosphere, he added, to
He stressed alternatives to emis-
take "drastic" action.
sion controls on greenhouse gases,
But some scientists at the confer-
which he called the "lifeblood" of in-
ence said Dr. Bromley's remarks,
dustry.
which included a reference to recent
One was the construction of a
tree-ring data that supports the
new generation of safer and more
warming theory, sounded less skep-
reliable nuclear power plants. "The
tical than previous White House pro-
nuclear option in my opinion is the
nouncements.
only technology available to us that
And Michael Oppenheimer of the
can provide the large block of elec-
Environmental Defense Fund pre-
tricity that we require," he said.
dicted that President Bush would
Another was the creation of new
change his "intransigent" policy over
"sinks" for greenhouse gases after
the next year under pressure from
they are released — such as a White
other industrial nations and the
House program to plant 1 billion car-
presidential elections.
bon dioxide-absorbing trees a year
Dr. Oppenheimer said yesterday's
on 1.5 million acres of vacant land.
resignation of White House Chief of
And he said the United States
Staff John H. Sununu would also
should encourage Third World coun-
help change the president's mind.
tries to use more efficient coal-burn-
Mr. Sununu is a vocal greenhouse
ing power plant technology rather
theory skeptic.
than try to impose "premature and
Unlike most other developed
likely ineffective controls on fuel
countries, the United States has not
use."
moved toward limiting emissions of
Dr. Bromley conceded that recent
carbon dioxide, the most widespread
studies suggesting that people could
greenhouse gas, from autos and
adapt to greenhouse gas-induced
power plants.
warming with relative ease were
Scientists generally agree that
controversial but said, "they provide
agriculture, transportation and in-
a welcome balance to 'the sky-is-fall-
dustry over the past 150 years have
ing' rhetoric all too common else-
dramatically increased the atmos-
where."
phere's load of certain gases that
Some scientists at Chemrawn —
tend to trap the sun's heat.
an acronym for chemical research
But there is a dispute over wheth-
applied to world needs - were dis-
er those gases have already led to
appointed by Dr. Bromley's remarks.
warmer global temperatures. Scien-
Glen E. Gordon, an atmospheric
tists also disagree over how far and
chemist with the University of Mary-
how fast temperatures are likely to
land, said the White House should
rise in coming decades and what the
shift its support behind energy con-
local effect of higher temperatures
servation.
"Planting a billion trees sounds
impressive," he said. But in terms of
the amount of carbon dioxide they
absorb, he added, the effects are "not
all that significant."
Dr. Oppenheimer of tie Environ-
mental Defense Fund said It would
be "imprudent to let uncerainties
provide a barrier to action."
41
The Dallas Morning Nelus
DEC
2 !991
Circulation 398,116
Information science may offer
path to deeper laws of physics
70
Modern science is built
control of our minds.
around the idea of energy.
In a recent issue of Physics Today, computer scien-
Energy transformations
tist Rolf Landauer of IBM explored some of the issues
explain the motion and inter-
linking the laws of physics to the manipulation. of
action of matter. One of Ein-
information by computers. Those laws are generally
stein's greatest insights was
expressed in equations that imply infinite computa
that matter itself is just en-
tional power - the ability to calculate pi to as many
ergy in a special form.
decimal places as desired, for example. But in explor-
But try to draw a picture
ToM
ing how to carry out such computations, it becomes
of energy. You can't. You can
SIEGFRIED
clear that some need a computer with more memory
only show the effects of en-
than what is available in the entire universe.
ergy. Energy is just a word, useful but abstract. As a
Thus, Dr. Landauer concluded, today's laws
physical concept, energy is a trick to make the books
physics might not be the last word, but merely
come out right in physicists' calculations.
gestive indications of how reality works. It
Physicists have plenty of justification for using
be possible to calculate those laws as precisely as
this trick. The universe is easier to understand if
their form implies.
viewed in terms of processes involving energy - to-
"I am proposing that the ultimate form of the im
tal energy remaining constant, although changing
plementable laws of physics requires only operations
forms. But perhaps energy is not the only way of
available (in principle) in our actual universe," Dr.
viewing reality, and perhaps other ways could lead to
Landauer wrote. Thus finding the ultimate laws of
a deeper understanding.
nature will require understanding more about the
Might not the universe work just as well if we de-
principles of information processing.
scribed it with different equations and called what
"Information handling is limited by the laws of
we were calculating by different names?
physics and the number of parts available in the uni-
After all, science is just the art of making models
verse; the laws of physics are, in turn, limited by the
of reality and using those models to predict how na-
range of information processing available," Dr. Lan
ture will behave. Often different models are equally
dauer pointed out.
successful at describing a given realm of reality.
Physicist Wojciech Zurek points out, in a another
In subatomic physics, for example, it is well
recent Physics Today article, that considerations of
known that sometimes the best model to use de-
information transfer are also essential in under
scribes processes in terms of the interactions of parti-
standing tricky phenomena of quantum physics
cles. But often it is better to use a model that views.
The math of quantum physics implies the
those "particles" as waves.
tence of parallel realities that we cannot detect.
Einstein showed that matter and energy are two
formation transfer between a system and its environ
different models for the same thing. He also showed
ment may have a role in resolving this quandary.
that the Newtonian model of gravity - a force tug
"Until recently, information was regarded as un
ging on everything - was not as good a model as one
physical, a mere record of the tangible, material uni-
in which gravity is viewed as a result of the geometry
verse, existing beyond and essentially decoupled
of ce. Planets and satellites travel in their orbits
from the domain governed by the laws of physics,
not because something is tugging on them, but be-
Dr. Zurek wrote in the October issue of Physics To-
cause they follow the natural distortions in space
day. "This view is no longer tenable."
caused by the presence of matter.
Certainly the information view is not about to re-
As physicist Steven Weinberg has pointed out,
place energy as the main way of describing nature
though, Einstein's gravity can be viewed just as well
The utility and universality of energy ensure that
as a force. The force model and geometry model of
any future science will have to incorporate or accom-
gravity are two equivalent ways of picturing nature.
modate that part of current science. But perhaps puz
It isn't entirely unreasonable, then, to suggest that
zles in the scientific understanding of nature exist
the equations describing energy aren't the only way
because nature can be described in many ways and
to understand the universe.
we know only some of them. Energy is one approach,
Some scientists, for example, like to view the uni-
the standard approach. Information may someday be.
verse in terms of information. Intuitively, informa-
another - it is still in its infancy today. There may
tion seems somehow less substantial than energy.
even be others, hidden from our view because of pre-
But that may be only because energy is already in
judices imposed by energy's successes.
42
TALKING POINTS ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
Current Status:
Formal negotiations on a Framework Convention are now
taking place under the auspices of the United Nations
General Assembly. President Bush hosted the first
negotiating session in Washington in February 1991.
The next negotiating session will be held June 19 -
20, 1991. The Convention is expected to be ready for
signature at the June 1992 U.N. Conference on
Environment and Development in Brazil.
A critical part of these negotiations will be the
desire of some countries to achieve commitments on
greenhouse gas reductions in the Convention.
U.S. Position:
In these negotiations, the U.S. has championed a
comprehensive approach to global climate change that
incorporates all greenhouse gas emissions, and their
sources and sinks. Each pollutant would be assigned
a global warming potential (GWP) index in order to
develop a common currency to analyze the impact of
different actions.
The advantages of this approach is emphasized in the
Administration's "Action Agenda" released at the
first negotiating session of the Framework
Convention. This document summarizes the beneficial
impacts of several recent U.S. programs including:
(1) the Clean Air Act; (2) the phase-out of CFCs; (3)
several DOE efficiency and renewable energy
initiatives; and (4) an EPA rule to control VOC and
methane emissions from landfills.
Taken together, the "Action Agenda" predicts that
these actions will cause U.S. greenhouse gas
emissions to be at or below 1987 emission levels in
the year 2000.
The National Energy Strategy, if implemented as
proposed, would further reduce emissions because of
additional energy efficiency measures, and its
increased emphasis on lower emitting fuels, such as
natural gas, nuclear power, renewable energy, and the
use of alternative fuels in the transportation
sector.
-2-
DOE estimates that the NES would allow us to hold
greenhouse gas emissions to current levels beyond the
year 2000.
If the NES is not implemented, however, greenhouse
gas emissions, as measured by the GWP, would increase
significantly beyond 2000 due to increased coal use
for electricity generation, and the growth of auto
emissions.
U.K. Position:
The U.K. has announced support for a 20 percent
reduction in greenhouse gases by 2005 if other
countries do the same. When this policy was
developed, Mr. Heseltine advocated a more aggressive
position of a 20 percent reduction by 2000.
In preparing for the June negotiation session, the
U.K. has shared the attached draft negotiation text
with the U.S. In that text, the U.K. endorses what
it describes as an "Incremental Comprehensive
Approach, or a gradual phase-in of the U.S.
comprehensive approach. We believe Mr. Heseltine
will ask for support for this approach in your
meeting. (See the attached article.)
While the labels of this approach sound appealing,
the U.K. proposal provides only lip-service to the
U.S. approach because it would divide pollutants and
sources/sinks into different categories: Annex A for
pollutants and sources/sinks for which a GWP index
and emission information is accepted; and Annex B for
pollutants and sources/sinks where scientific
uncertainties remain. Annex A would be controlled
under the convention; Annex B would not.
Nations would be invited to make commitments on
emissions covered by Annex A. Scientific research
would go forward on Annex B gases and sources/sinks,
which would then be added to the Convention when
knowledge and agreement permits.
In the short-term, this approach would allow the U.K.
to isolate those pollutants and sources which they
believe should be controlled first. In the draft
paper, the U.K. proposes that Annex A contain CO2 and
methane emissions from the energy and waste sectors.
-3-
The U.K. also opposes the inclusion of greenhouse gas
emissions covered under the Montreal Protocol, except
to consider giving credit for countries which reduce
emissions on an accelerated basis.
The U.K.'s position on climate change is evident in
the draft thematic papers prepared for the London
Economic Summit. (These papers will form the basis
of the Summit's final communique.) In the rewrites
of the thematic papers, the treatment of climate
change has consistently worsened. The latest draft
references the use of several climate change
"protocols" and excludes pollutants covered by the
Montreal Protocol.
FINANCIAL TIMES, Monday, June 3, 1991
Britain to
offer deal
But the compromise plan
has angered environmentalists
who believe the government
to US on
plan will concede too much to
the US.
They believe Mr Heseltine's
greenhouse
position signals a change in
British policy because it is a
gas effects
retreat from attempts to agree
international targets for cuts
in carbon dioxide emissions,
By John Hunt, Environment
which are mainly caused by
Correspondent
fossil fuels such as coal, oil
and gas.
BRITAIN is to offer the US a
controversial compromise over
Mr Heseltine will be seeing
international policies to com-
Mr John Sununu, President
bat greenhouse gases.
George Bush's chief of staff,
The US, the world's largest
who is the leading US oppo-
producer of carbon dioxide,
nent of targets for carbon
the chief greenhouse gas, has
dioxide and a sceptic on global
refused to set targets for its
warming. Mr Heseltine will
reduction, although most west-
also hold talks with Mr Bill
ern European and Scandina-
Reilly, head of the US Environ-
vian countries have done so.
ment Protection Agency.
This is an increasing embar-
The Department of Environ-
rassment in the run-up to the
ment document says: "The
Earth Environmental Summit
best set of response measures
in Rio de Janeiro next year,
will be different for each
which is planned as a forum to
nation. Flexibility in setting
draw up a world climate con-
national commitments will
vention to control global
encourage all nations to adopt
warming.
the maximum spread of policy
The proposals by Mr Michael
responses."
Heseltine, the environment
Mr Steve Ellsworth, Green-
secretary, are disclosed in a
peace atmosphere campaigner,
confidential Department of
said the British plan "is a sell
Environment document pre-
out to the Americans and care-
pared for his visit to Washing-
fully calculated to impress
ton this week where he will
domestic opinion in Britain".
attempt to bridge the gap
The Department of the Envi-
between the US and Europe in
ronment denied the charge. It
an effort to gain a common
said: "Some countries want to
approach at Rio.
go faster than others in mak-
Mr Heseltine will propose a
ing reductions. A compromise
"phased, comprehensive" pro-
agreement is better than no
gramme which would allow
agreement at all."
countries to make "national
commitments" to reductions in
a range of greenhouse gases.
This would include gases such
as methane and CFCs (chloro-
fluorocarbons) where cuts are
more easily achievable than in
carbon dioxide.
It would enable countries
such as the US to claim
across-the-board reductions in
total greenhouse gases even if
they made little progress in
cutting carbon dioxide.
Britain would also be able to
claim a total reduction of 20
per cent in this range of gases
by 2005 - far more impressive
than its present agreement
merely to stabilise carbon
dioxide output by that year,
according to environmental-
ists.
Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet
(George Bush Library)
Document No.
Subject/Title of Document
Date
Restriction
Class.
and Type
01. Paper
Re: Greenhouse Gase Emissions (8 pp.)
n.d.
(b)(1)
Collection:
Record Group:
Bush Presidential Records
Office:
Policy Development, White House Office of
Series:
Goldstein, Ed, Files
Subseries:
WHORM Cat.:
File Location:
Global Climate 91
Date Closed:
2/21/2018
OA/ID Number:
06682-006
FOIA/SYS Case #:
2017-0310-F
Appeal Case #:
Re-review Case #:
Appeal Disposition:
P-2/P-5 Review Case #:
Disposition Date:
AR Case #:
MR Case #:
AR Disposition:
MR Disposition:
AR Disposition Date:
MR Disposition Date:
RESTRICTION CODES
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)]
Deed of Gift Restrictions
(b)(1) National security classified information
C(1) Closed by Executive Order 13526, governing access to national
(b)(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an
security information
agency
C(2) Closed by statute or by the agency which originated the information
(b)(3) Release would violate a Federal statute
C(3) Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of
(b)(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial
gift [formerly listed as only C]
information
PRM. Removed as a personal record misfile
(b)(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion
of personal privacy
(b)(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement
Presidential Records Act - [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)]
purposes
(b)(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of
P-2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA]
financial institutions
P-5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President and
(b)(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information
his advisors, or between such advisors [(a)(5) of the PRA]
concerning wells
U.S. Department of Justice
Environment and Natural Resources Division
Office of the Assistant Attorney General
Washington, D.C. 20530
January 14, 1990
MEMORANDUM
TO:
Members of the DPC Global Change Strategy Group
FROM:
Dick Stewart RES few
Assistant Attorney General
SUBJECT: Article on Climate Approaches
Attached for your information is a copy of the article
we recently published describing the "comprehensive" and
"incentives" approaches to potential climate change. This is the
article that Dr. Bromley circulated on September 20 for clearance
by the DPC Global Change Strategy Group. Thank you very much for
all of your helpful comments, which greatly improved the article.
A COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH TO
CLIMATE
CHANGI
USING THE MARKET TO
PROTECT THE ENVIRONMENT
ENVIRONMENTAL OFFICIALS from around
ability to forecast the magnitude, timing, or
the world are poised to negotiate an agreement
regional patterns of any climate change.
that will set the framework for future efforts
At the same time, the costs and benefits
to address potential climate change. When the
of climate change and of options to limit or
talks begin in February 1991, the need for clear
adapt to it also must be considered. These are
thinking on climate policy will be acute.
even more uncertain questions on which
The likelihood and potential impact of
neither the IPCC nor anyone else has made
climate change must be considered. The recent
much progress.
First Assessment Report of the Intergovern-
Then, if preventive efforts are deemed
mental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) found
warranted—a big "if," given the above uncer-
that increases in the so-called "greenhouse
tainties-the design of any policy steps must
gases," which trap solar energy when it
be considered. Unfortunately, the tenor of
rebounds off the earth's surface, are likely to
current climate discussions indicates that old
yield increases in atmospheric temperature,
mistakes in policy design are likely to be
but that major uncertainties frustrate our
repeated. Proposals to address potential cli-
mate change have focused narrowly on imme-
diate, uniform controls on emissions of one
Richard B. Stewart is assistant attorney general,
greenhouse gas: carbon dioxide emitted by the
Environment and Natural Resources Division,
energy sector. Such piecemeal, command-and-
the U.S. Department of Justice. Jonathan B.
control approaches, mandating centrally speci-
Wiener is special assistant to the assistant
fied, inflexible responses to subsets of complex
attorney general. The views expressed herein
environmental problems, will almost surely
are their own and do not necessarily represent
deliver, as they have in the past in other
the views of the Department of Justice or the
contexts, environmentally counterproductive
United States.
and economically unsound results.
BY RICHARD B. STEWART AND JONATHAN B. WIENER
75
A far better approach would be a "com-
ciency. It is the net emissions (sources minus
prehensive" one that addresses the net envi-
sinks) of all greenhouse gases, weighted by their
ronmental impacts of all greenhouse gases.
relative impacts on the environment. Any policy
Such an approach is essential to understanding
response to climate-setting a scientific re-
climate change and to determining the costs
search agenda, enumerating climate-relevant
and benefits of policy options. It is also
measures (such as reforestation or eliminating
essential to fashioning environmentally effec-
CFCs) justified on other grounds, or adopting
tive and less-costly policy measures that na-
GHG limitation measures-must therefore be
tions or the world community may choose to
comprehensive, matching the climate system.
adopt. Any such measures should use market-
based incentives, rather than command-and-
Carboncentric Thinking
control methods, in order to achieve environ-
mentally superior results at less cost.
But those proposing immediate GHG reduc-
tions typically focus narrowly on limiting CO2
Influences on the Climate System
emissions from fossil-fuel combustion. Many
such proposals are made by nations that would
Potential climate change is an issue of enor-
enjoy a competitive advantage under such
mous complexity. Any change in global aver-
policies: those that can rely on noncarbon or
age annual temperature would occur over
low-carbon energy sources (such as nuclear,
many years through the workings of very
hydropower, or natural gas) or those that
complex natural systems and in turn would
expect to conserve energy more cheaply than
affect patterns of local temperature, precipita-
their trading rivals. But such a narrow focus
tion, soil moisture, and sea level.
is not warranted by the facts about GHGs or
The greenhouse gases (GHGs)-carbon
by sound policy.
dioxide (CO2), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide
First, it is clear that the greenhouse effect
(N₂O), tropospheric ozone (O₃), halocarbons
cannot be attributed to CO₂ alone. It is
such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and oth-
portrayed as the chief culprit in potential
ers-are emitted by many sources. Each gas
global warming because, by volume, it has
has a different capacity to trap heat in the
accounted for a large share of the total output
atmosphere, called its "radiative-forcing" abil-
of GHGs. But because any policies to limit
ity, and each resides in the atmosphere for a
GHGs must necessarily address future incre-
different period of time. Together, these
ments of net GHG emissions, it is the compara-
factors determine the relative radiative-forcing
tive impact of additional amounts of each gas
potentials of the GHGs (see table). Each GHG
also has environmental consequences resulting
per kg of radiative emissions
that must be addressed. CO2, molecule for
years Atmospheric residence
Relative potential radiative forcing
over lifetime
molecule, is the weakest of the anthropogenic
from its direct chemical effects on the atmos-
GHGs. As the relative radiative forcing figures
phere and on plant and animal life: CO2 aids
plant photosynthesis and water use efficiency,
spheric ozone layer. One GHG or another is
emitted or affected by virtually every ecologi-
forcing Instantaneous
(estimated)
in the table show, a unit of CO2, its typically
long residence in the atmosphere notwith-
for example, while CFCs deplete the strato-
standing, is the least potent contributor to
potential warming. Moreover, because there
is already so much natural CO, in the atmos-
cal, social, and economic activity in every area
phere, the band of the electromagnetic spec-
of the world. The gases are removed from the
Gas
trum that CO2 molecules block is becoming
atmosphere in varying degrees by natural
CO2
1
120
1
almost fully occluded, creating a saturation
"sinks": CO2, for example, is removed in the
CH₄
58
10
21
effect-a kind of atmospheric law of diminish-
photosynthesis carried on by trees, crops,
N2O
206
150
290
ing marginal returns-which means that the
CFC-11
3970
60 3500
grasses, and oceanic phytoplankton, and
CFC-12
5750 130 7300
relative radiative forcing of future CO, mole-
stored in plant material, soils, and the deep
cules will be even less. Further, CO, in the
ocean.
Note: *=Calculated over a 100-year
atmosphere is not increasing as rapidly as other
Environmental policy design must match
time horizon.
GHGs; the atmospheric concentration of CO₂
Source: IPCC Scientific Assessment,
the ecological system it seeks to address. From
tables 2.3 and 2.8.
is increasing at about 0.3 percent per year,
the climate perspective, the variable of envi-
CH₄ about 1 percent, and CFCs over 4 percent.
ronmental concern is not emissions of CO2, or
RELATIVE RADIATIVE FORCING OF
(Although the goal of the international treaty
the carbon content of fuels, or energy effi-
SELECTED GASES
to protect the stratospheric ozone layer-the
76 THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE
Montreal Protocol-is to phase out CFCs, their
IF LIMITS ON GHG
to CO2; and the residential and commercial
more ozone-friendly substitutes are still likely
sector, which produces CO2, VOCs and CFCs.
to be significant GHGs.)
EMISSIONS ARE DEEMED
And in addition to GHG sources, the GHG
Meanwhile, CO2 provides significant bene-
sinks deserve serious attention. It is net
fits that the other GHGs do not. CO₂ is the grist
WARRANTED, A COMPRE-
emissions that matter for climate system
of photosynthesis. Higher concentrations of
functions. The net flow of GHGs into the
CO2 in the atmosphere are likely to substan-
HENSIVE APPROACH
atmosphere is the result of emissions from
tially improve plant productivity and increase
surface sources and removal by surface sinks,
the efficiency with which plants use water. The
WOULD HAVE IMPORTANT
including ocean mixing, oceanic phytoplank-
other GHGs confer no such benefits, and some
ton, trees, grasses, soil biota, crops, and
pose serious threats unrelated to possible
ECONOMIC AND ENVIRON-
tropospheric chemical reactions. Plants re-
global warming. CFCs, for example, deplete
MENTAL ADVANTAGES. IT
move CO₂ from the atmosphere during photo-
the stratospheric ozone layer. In order to
synthesis; preserving and properly managing
provide a better guide to policy choices, the
WOULD ALLOW EACH
forests and other vegetation or protecting
radiative forcing index of GHGs could be
phytoplankton from anthropogenic injury can
expanded to incorporate other-positive and
NATION THE FLEXIBILITY
help sequester CO₂ released from surface
negative-environmental impacts of each
sources.
GHG. CO2 would receive a credit for enriching
TO DEVISE ITS OWN COST-
plant growth, CFCs a debit for ozone depletion.
The Comprehensive Approach
In sum, unit-for-unit, CO2 is probably the
EFFECTIVE POLICY MIX.
most environmentally benign of the GHGs. If
Any climate policy must be comprehensive to
the biosphere had to accept any given amount
match the diverse character of GHGs, their
of predicted warming, then on purely environ-
sources, and sinks. Scientific studies, technol-
mental grounds and abstracting from the costs
ogy development, enumeration of current
of control, it would probably prefer to have
climate-relevant actions taken for other rea-
the warming due to CO2 and not to other
sons, or proposals to limit GHGs should be
GHGs. CO₂ is thus the last gas, on environ-
based on net emissions of all GHGs, sources,
mental grounds, whose incremental additions
and sinks and on weighting GHGs according
one would want to restrict. Still, any extensive
to an index of their comparative environmental
measures to limit net GHG emissions-even
impacts. This comprehensive design would
under a comprehensive approach-would
ensure that no important GHG or GHG-related
probably mean some limits on CO2, the
activity is ignored, while providing a guide to
most-prevalent of the anthropogenic GHGs.
addressing the most environmentally signifi-
Moreover, a full analysis requires considera-
cant GHGs rather than fixing narrowly on one
tion of the costs of limitation as well as the
gas or sector.
benefits. It would be economically and envi-
If the strategy is technology development
ronmentally irrational to focus solely on one
or enumeration of otherwise justified actions,
GHG in any measures to limit climate change,
a comprehensive approach is necessary to
because the greatest benefit may often be had
determine which technologies and actions are
for less cost by addressing other GHGs.
climate-relevant. If limits on GHG emissions
Focus on the energy sector is likewise
are deemed warranted, a comprehensive ap-
inappropriate. Certainly the energy sector
proach would have important economic and
produces a large share of global CO2, carbon
environmental advantages. It would allow each
monoxide (CO), CH₄, volatile organic com-
nation the flexibility to devise its own cost-
pounds (VOCs), and nitrogen oxides (NOX).
effective policy mix. Because the marginal
But the GHGs arise from a variety of sources
costs of limiting emissions will vary across
in every sector: agriculture, where rice paddies
nations by gas, source, sink, and technique, a
and livestock disgorge enormous amounts of
piecemeal or uniform approach would impose
CH₄ and fertilized fields release N₂O; forestry,
undue costs on those who could achieve the
where tree-cutting and soil disruption liberate
same environmental objective by less costly
about 10 to 33 percent of global anthropogenic
means. The flexibility afforded under a com-
CO2; industry, which emits large amounts of
prehensive approach would allow choice
CFCs, VOCs, CO, and NO,; transportation,
among all available response options, ensuring
which yields CO, VOCs, and CFCs in addition
that costs are minimized. For example, the
NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 1990 77
least-cost policy option for limiting net emis-
THE COMPREHENSIVE
piecemeal fuel switching could be even greater
sions in one nation may be switching from
net GHG emissions than in the absence of the
coal to natural gas, while for another nation
APPROACH WOULD
CO2-reduction rule. Even if the CH₄ leakage
it may be changing agricultural practices to
rate only offset, say, 50 percent of the CO₂
reduce CH4 and N2O emissions, and for another
AVOID A NOTORIOUS
savings, the CO2-only policy would be severely
it may be reducing deforestation and ensuring
undermined. Similarly, a transportation-only
sustainable forest management. Put another
DRAWBACK OF PIECE-
policy requiring, say, the use of electric
way, reducing emissions of CO2 from fossil-fuel
vehicles, could shift production of emissions
combustion (or stopping deforestation, or any
MEAL APPROACHES:
to the central power stations that recharge the
other single tactic) might be the cheapest way
vehicles' batteries. The comprehensive ap-
UNWANTED SHIFTS TO
to limit overall net GHG emissions in one
proach, on the other hand, would encompass
nation but the most expensive in another.
UNREGULATED ACTIVITIES
all relevant emissions and thereby ensure that
Rigid, uniform requirements would be eco-
policies and incentives address the full net
nomically irrational, needlessly driving up
THAT CONTINUE TO PRO-
GHG emissions inventory.
social costs.
A different kind of inadvertent shift
The "net emissions" aspect of the compre-
duce ENVIRONMENTAL
would attend restrictions on fossil-fuel con-
hensive approach would also provide signifi-
sumption applied piecemeal to one group of
cant benefits by encouraging sink expansion
DEGRADATION.
nations (such as OECD countries). If develop-
through expansion of forest areas and preser-
ing countries' net GHG emissions continue to
vation and protection of phytoplankton habi-
rise at current rates, even radical OECD-only
tats from pollution. In addition to limiting net
policies will be unable to arrest growth in
GHG emissions, these activities could provide
global emissions. And the OECD nations would
other benefits in biodiversity, oceanic food
most likely respond by limiting imported fuels
webs, reduced soil erosion, and better timber
first, which would lower prices for those fuels
management.
on world markets and increase consumption
in other nations. Depending on the sensitivity
Anticipating "Unanticipated
of consumption to prices and the efficiency of
Consequences"
fuel combustion in the various countries, total
GHG emissions might even rise. Over the
The comprehensive approach would also avoid
slightly longer term, restrictions in only some
a notorious drawback of piecemeal ap-
nations could induce GHG-emitting industries
proaches: unwanted shifts to unregulated ac-
to move to unregulated locations. These
tivities that continue to produce environmental
concerns indicate the need for comprehensive
degradation. For example, under a CO2-only
scope of coverage and international coopera-
approach, utilities would probably switch from
tion on any limitations measures.
coal to natural gas (methane) because, with
current combustion techniques, burning coal
Applying the Comprehensive
produces almost twice as much CO2 per BTU
Approach
as burning natural gas. But use of natural gas
leads to CH₄ emissions because it leaks from
Any framework convention on climate change
natural-gas mining and transportation systems.
should promote a cooperative scientific re-
One recent study estimates that with a 3-6
search and reporting agenda that would facili-
percent rate of CH4 leakage from natural-gas
tate the comprehensive approach by ex-
transport, such leaks would fully offset all the
amining all GHGs, sources, and sinks. It should
CO2-related radiative-forcing savings from
also ensure that any future protocol follow the
switching from coal to natural gas. Such
comprehensive approach. The convention
leakage rates are probably higher than the
could assure that any actions taken by a nation
average in the United States, but may be
after a chosen baseline date will be credited
typical elsewhere. And a swift expansion of
to that nation's limitation obligations, if any,
natural-gas transport capacity to comply with
under a future protocol, relying on a provi-
a stiff CO2 reduction target could well mean
sional index of relative GHG impacts estab-
the use of hastily designed new facilities or
lished at the convention. Without such advance
older facilities in disrepair with leakage rates
assurances, nations would be hesitant to take
higher than today's. Hence, the result of
even climate-relevant steps that are justified
78 THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE
on other grounds lest they lose credit for such
THE MAJOR OBJECTION
Market-Based Incentives
steps when a climate agreement is signed. This
fear would frustrate independently desirable
THAT HAS been RAISED
The virtues of market-based economic incen-
policy steps (such as energy conservation or
tives for environmental protection are increas-
reforestation) while adding to pressure for
TO THE COMPREHENSIVE
ingly recognized. Fees or taxes, tradeable
hasty adoption of a climate protocol.
allowances, and deposit-refund programs have
The major objection that has been raised
APPROACH IS THAT
been successful in several important environ-
to the comprehensive approach is that current
mental applications, and we are learning how
science is not adequate for monitoring certain
CURRENT SCIENCE IS
to apply them in others. The tradeable credits
sources and sinks, such as nonpoint (diffuse
program used to phase out lead in gasoline
NOT ADEQUATE FOR
or mobile) sources of CH₄ and N₂O. The
achieved its goal at about half the cost of
objectors say that we should "do what we can
MONITORING CERTAIN
traditional regulation, saving hundreds of
now" and wait until later to design a compre-
millions of dollars. Deposit-refund programs
hensive approach. The counterargument is
SOURCES AND SINKS.
have aided in reducing litter and recycling
that while monitoring such emissions is not
beverage containers. Both fees and tradeable
easy it is not beyond our reach if we orient
allowances are now part of the U.S. program
current research efforts to support a compre-
to eliminate CFC use under the Montreal
hensive approach. Moreover, our experience
Protocol. And tradeable allowances have been
belies the suggestion that piecemeal initiatives
proposed for the acid-rain-reduction pro-
can eventually be transformed into a compre-
visions of the new Clean Air Act, with
hensive strategy. Piecemeal measures tend to
projected national savings of $1 billion annu-
create vested interests that fight to ensure the
ally when compared to a command-and-
perpetuation of their favorite measures. For
control program. Meanwhile, we have learned
example, the overbroad Prevention of Signifi-
a great deal about the drawbacks of traditional
cant Deterioration (PSD) provisions in the
regulatory approaches-the centrally speci-
Clean Air Act limit industrial development
fied, uniform, and rigid edicts of "command-
in many regions of the United States, often
and-control" methods-in terms of their cost,
without environmental justification. But other
obstacles to innovation, ecological shortsight-
regions oppose relaxing these limits for fear
edness, and legal and administrative burdens.
prosperity will shift to those regions now
Market-based incentives respond to mar-
subject to PSD controls. Similarly, any global
ket failures such as excessive pollution by
climate agreement targeted at energy-sector
harnessing and redirecting market forces to
CO₂ limitations would benefit some nations
engender socially and environmentally respon-
more than others. The favored nations would
sible behavior. At the same time, they allow
resist development of a more comprehensive
flexibility among regulated firms, promote
approach that would treat all nations with an
diverse and cost-minimizing solutions by al-
even hand. It is vital, therefore, to start with
lowing those who can fix a problem most
a comprehensive approach at the outset.
cheaply to do so, and stimulate efficient
The pertinent question is not what is
resource use and innovation in technologies
immediately feasible but whether the costs of
and practices.
proceeding with a flawed policy design are
Market-based techniques are especially
less than the costs of doing the necessary
well-suited to any limitation measures for
groundwork to develop and implement a
GHGs that might be adopted nationally or
comprehensive approach. The answer is that
worldwide. Because GHG emissions arise from
we need not wait for perfection; in the interim,
so many diverse and pervasive sources, the
proxy-based estimates of difficult-to-measure
costs of abatement are bound to vary widely
emissions can be used. A framework conven-
among emitters. Market-based mechanisms
tion (or another agreement) can provide
use that variation to social advantage by
incentives for investments in developing or
imposing a restraint on total emissions-a limit
improving the requisite monitoring capabili-
on the net quantity emitted or a fee for each
ties, such as by offering credit for national
unit emitted-but then letting the market
reductions in difficult-to-monitor GHGs upon
allocate the burden of abatement to those who
demonstration of the relevant monitoring
can most easily shoulder it.
techniques to an expert panel.
Two main economic instruments have
NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 1990 79
been suggested for limiting emissions of GHGs:
EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN
tage to global environmental resources. Such
tradeable emissions allowances and emissions
trading in GHG limitations would also serve
taxes. Tradeable allowances would set a total
THE INADEQUACY OF
as a market-based, decentralized vehicle for
limit on net emissions, issue that sum of
introducing needed capital and low-GHG-
allowances to emitters, and let emitters trade
EMPLOYING PIECEMEAL,
emitting technology into the developing world.
them. Those for whom emissions reductions
Opportunities to obtain valuable emissions
or sink expansions would be relatively more
COMMAND-AND-CONTROL
allowances by investing in lower-cost net GHG
expensive would buy additional allowances,
emissions limitations in developing nations
while those who could achieve limitations
APPROACHES IN ENVIRON-
(where, for example, energy production facili-
goals cheaply would sell their extra allowances.
ties do not yet exist) would attract funding
MENTAL POLICY.
Each emitter would try to develop new means
from industrialized countries and stimulate
of limiting emissions at less cost than its
innovation of low-GHG technologies useful in
competitors so that it could sell its allowances
developing nations. This framework would
at a profit. Emissions control, efficient use of
obviate creation of a heavily bureaucratized,
fuels and other inputs, and innovation of new
centralized regulatory authority and technol-
control techniques would become profit cen-
ogy-assistance fund, with its attendant oppor-
ters for the emitter. The market would allocate
tunities for waste and misallocation of benefits.
limitations to those who limited emissions at
Emissions taxes for net GHG emissions
least cost, reducing the overall cost to society.
are another important option. The tax rate
Domestically, governments could issue
could be geared to the GHG index value of the
allowances for net GHG emissions. Those who
emissions activity. Like emissions trading,
were issued allowances could meet their
emissions taxes offer a cost-effective solution
limitation obligations through such steps as
that promotes innovation and efficient re-
energy conservation, fuel switching, reducing
source use. Such a plan could work well within
CH₄ leaks, planting trees, or contracting for
a nation, especially where the emphasis is on
limitations by other regulated firms. Allow-
specifying the cost of the GHG-limitation
ances could be made of limited duration, or
program more precisely than the quantity of
leasable, to relieve fears of hoarding or other
emissions avoided, or where revenue raising
distortions due to exercise of market power.
is a major goal. International application of a
Government clearinghouses, private brokers,
tax would raise more difficult questions: Would
and banks would act to facilitate trading
nations cede their sovereignty to an interna-
among disparate parties and over time.
tional tax authority? How would the tax be
Any internationally agreed national obli-
set? How would the potentially enormous
gations to limit GHGs could be advantageously
revenues raised be allotted and expended?
reallocated among nations through bilateral
or multilateral trades. One nation could satisfy
Conclusion
its obligations by investing in response actions
in another. For example, Nation A could
Experience has shown the inadequacy of
provide new energy technology to Nation B
employing piecemeal, command-and-control
in return for all or part of the value of B's
approaches in environmental policy. Reinvent-
reduction in emissions. Or Nation C could
ing these square wheels in the climate context
plant and manage trees in Nation D's territory
would surely be ecologically misguided and
in return for their CO2 sink value while offering
economically disruptive. A comprehensive
assistance to D to compensate for the reduc-
approach is the foundation for sound analysis
tion in arable land area. Nation E might earn
and treatment of the complex climate system
the opportunity to record certain emissions
and its interactions with socioeconomic activi-
reductions achieved in Nation F in return for
ties, whatever level or type of effort nations
debt forgiveness promised to F. Given signifi-
or the world community may choose to expend
cant international variations in marginal costs
on these issues. Should any policy measures
of limitation, mutually agreed trades would
be implemented, both a comprehensive design
probably enable the world economy to realize
and the use of market-based incentives would
substantial cost savings. These arrangements
be indispensable.
would demonstrate the power of applying
Adam Smith's lessons of comparative advan-
80
THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE
agencies from litigation. A DOD source suggests that federal agencies may be sued for not fulfilling NEPA,
despite an Oct. 2 DOJ memo arguing that NEPA does not apply to CERCLA cleanups initiated by federal
agencies. This source says the DOJ opinion is not sufficient to block citizen suits, and since fulfilling
NEPA takes only a small additional effort beyond the RI/FS, questions the wisdom of "go[ing] out on a
legal limb" by not completing it. Another Administration source says CEQ has maintained that an EIS
addresses ecological and wildlife concerns that CERCLA does not. EPA staff acknowledge that Superfund
has tended to focus first on human health risks. Administration sources also argue that NEPA requires
more public input in remedy selection, which may lead to greater public acceptance of the eventual
remedy, thereby preventing litigation later.
Dropping NEPA would be a vote of confidence for EPA, because EPA has primary oversight authority
for CERCLA while CEQ oversees NEPA, an environmentalist argues. This source suggests that NEPA "takes
crucial decisions out of the hands of the regulators" at EPA and turns them over to officers of the other
involved agencies. Another environmentalist suggests the dispute over NEPA may be little more than a
power play between agencies, with EPA trying to maintain control over cleanups and other agencies trying
to take some authority under NEPA. But EPA, CEQ and DOD sources all say the NEPA/CERCLA debate will
not engender any shift in authority, and none of their agencies are looking at the debate as a power
struggle. These sources say the battle is simply a philosophical debate between agencies trying to craft the
most efficient method of environmental protection.
MOST COST-EFFECTIVE GREENHOUSE PLAN MUST TARGET WORST GASES, NEW STUDY SAYS
Certain greenhouse gases are far more potent than carbon dioxide in terms of global warming
potential, a new EPA-prepared analysis finds, and the U.S. must consider this in determining the most
cost-effective approach for tackling the problem. Many following the global warming debate have
associated carbon dioxide as the most harmful of the greenhouse gases, because it is the most pervasive.
But in fact other gases possess more heating potential -- such as methane, which is 21 times stronger than
CO2 -- and must be reckoned with accordingly, the new study says.
The EPA analysis, The cost of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the United States, was prepared
by Alex Cristofaro, director of EPA's air & energy policy division in the Office of Policy, Planning &
Evaluation, for a Dec. 4-5 conference. The conference, Global climate change: the economic costs of
mitigation and adaptation, organized by the Center for Environmental Information, Inc., was partly funded
by EPA.
Existing federal programs may be adequate to limit greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. to today's
level on a per capita basis for the next 10-20 years, Cristofaro concludes: "This is because current
government energy and environmental policies are sufficient to keep total greenhouse gas emissions
(expressed as carbon equivalents) below 1987 levels in the year 2000. In 2010 total emissions are projected
to be only 4% above current levels in one scenario and essentially the same as 1990 levels in another."
But, he notes, CO2 is projected to grow, so "if the goal is stabilization of the absolute level of CO2,
additional government control programs would be necessary."
The analysis says several opportunities exist for reducing U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. But the way
the U.S. chooses to do this will be critical from a cost-benefits standpoint. For instance, Cristofaro points
out that NOx emissions trap 40 times more heat than CO2, so that control costs of $400/ton for NOx
would be as cost-effective in reducing warming as CO2 controls that cost $10/ton. More importantly, NOx
controls would offer other environmental benefits. "NOx deposition has been identified as an important
contributor to nitrogen loadings in water bodies and NOx plays a role in the formation of tropospheric
ozone, visibility impairment and acid deposition. These benefits should be taken into account in analyzing
the economic efficiency of reducing GHGs," the analysis says.
Since methane is a significant greenhouse gas, 21 times more potent than CO2, control opportunities
should not be overlooked, the analysis says. Cristofaro notes that animal waste is a large source of
methane, but points out that promising technologies currently exist for methane recovery which could both
reduce emissions by almost 50% and generate electricity at a cost of five to seven cents per kilowatt hour.
With regard to methane, Cristofaro emphasizes,
the lack of data on methane control could be
rectified in the near future. The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 require EPA to issue a report to
Congress on methane emission inventories and control costs."
Opportunities for NOx reductions remain as well. Cristofaro suggests low NOx burner controls could be
broadened to cover existing industrial boilers and small electric utility boilers. Carbon monoxide, which is
eight times stronger than CO2, will be limited under the new Clean Air Act, but the extent of CO controls
Biodiversity
Network
News
Biological and Conservation Data and Applications
Vol. 3, No. 4, 1990
Networking Heritage Data for Rangewide Conservation
Sue Crispin
Last spring, I read about a conference to be held
grams use a common methodology for collecting
Coordinator,
in Nova Scotia, aimed at developing a conserva-
and managing data on significant species and
Canadian
tion strategy for the coastal plain pond flora of
communities. As expected, I found a gold mine
Heritage Task
North America. My first thought was that natural
of detailed information on the occurrence,
Force
heritage program data was essential in accom-
quality, and characteristics of coastal plain ponds
plishing that task. From my experience with the
and their associated rare species. Summarizing
Michigan Natural Features Inventory, I knew that
this kind of information for the conference could
amazing assemblages of rare plant species
help attendees move quickly beyond the need to
concentrate in these small coastal seepage
document resources and begin to focus on
depressions that are vulnerable to water table
protection strategy.
alterations, development, nutrient loading, and
The occurrence and status information was
mudhole-loving off-road vehicles. Since coastal
compatibly managed and formatted, just as I
plain ponds are so threatened and are distributed
knew it would be. However, each heritage
in a broad geographic range along the Atlantic
program operates independently, and manages
and Gulf coasts and disjunctly around the south-
data on a state by state basis, so I found it
ern Great Lakes, this community offered a great
necessary to contact programs individually in
opportunity for applying multi-state heritage data
order to create a single summary usable for
to a distinct ecological type.
conservation planning. This process illuminated
I set out to gather pertinent data from
for me, the growing need for state and national
heritage programs located around the Great
governments to begin coordinating information
Lakes and along the Atlantic coast. A relatively
across jurisdictional boundaries.
simple task, I predicted, since all heritage pro-
For example, heritage program ecologists in
most New England and Great Lakes states rank
Networking the Network
coastal plain community types as an "S2" or
The natural heritage programs and conservation data
"S2S3", indicating a rare to moderately imperiled
centers form a network of permanent information-gathering
status. The relatively large number of examples
institutions designed to assist in conservation planning, natural
of coastal plain ponds per state (e.g., more than
resource management, environmental impact assessment and
20 in Michigan, more than 50 in New York, and
planning for sustainable development. While these programs
more than 200 in Massachusetts) probably dilutes
operate independently, they are unified by a consistent method
the priority of any given example, even though
of collecting and recording data. This issue of Biodiversity
individual sites are typically small, highly vulner-
Network News looks at the variety of ways these data support
able, and often at risk. Also, although coastal
regional and national conservation planning in the United
plain ponds usually support extraordinary
States, Canada, Latin America and the Caribbean.
numbers of rare plant species, seldom are those
species rare enough rangewide to merit a high
The
Nature
Conservancy
2
estimated as "G3" or globally rare.
Data synthesis across jurisdictional bounda-
ries is clearly essential to true biological (ele-
ment-based) conservation planning. Without a
larger picture, all efforts will suffer from the
limitations imposed by the piecemeal nature of a
fragmented geographic perspective--the equiva-
lent of wearing blinders. Conversely, the poten-
tial of networked element occurrence and site
data to assist rangewide conservation planning is
tremendous.
Rangewide data are crucial for successfully
evaluating the status and planning the protection
of rare elements ranging over multiple states,
Dunahoe Bay, North Carolina, one of several types of Coastal Plain Pond
Community in the South. Photo: Frederick Annand.
provinces, or nations. Other than coastal plain
ponds, prime examples include the piping plover
global rank. So, while this fragile community
(Charadrius melodus) ranging from-Canada
receives moderate priority for protection in most
through the Bahamas and the curly grass fern
New England and Great Lakes states, the level of
(Schizaea pusilla) locally abundant in New Jersey
protection is probably not enough to balance the
and eastern Canada, and occurring disjunctly in
increasing threat and losses over the range.
Peru. While the U.S. Endangered Species
I found another hurdle in attempting to
program addresses rangewide conservation
synthesize rangewide coastal plain pond data
through the recovery planning process, routine
when I tried to include information from the
access to aggregated heritage data would un-
southern Atlantic and Gulf coastal states. In the
doubtedly expedite that process and make such
highly diverse south, there is a much wider array
conservation planning possible for a much larger
of coastal plain pond community types and the
group of community types as well as species not
communities may be classified differently accord-
now federally listed. Improved access would also
ing to vegetation. This points out another
facilitate tapping into federal protection mecha-
constraint in networking heritage data for
nisms as well as use of national and international
rangewide conservation planning--the difficult
resources to accomplish conservation work. At
business of ecological classification.
the state level, access to rangewide element data
Traditionally, community classifications have
would permit more finely focused state inventory/
been developed independently by individual state
protection priorities and would also promote
heritage programs. Thus, a coastal plain marsh in
interstate cooperation on the conservation of
Michigan is called a coastal plain pond shore in
shared elements. In addition to simple element
Massachusetts, which is probably much the same
conservation, any nationally or internationally
as a small depression pond in North Carolina--or
integrated, large-scale plan for ecosystem protec-
is it? To overcome this obstacle, ecolo-
tion requires the ability to see beyond political
gists in The Nature Conservancy and
boundaries, since most ecosystems and many
throughout the heritage network are
large sites range across those boundaries.
developing regional classifications.
A convenient mechanism for synthesizing
Besides providing translations among
multi-state heritage data on coastal plain pond
state classifications, standardized re-
communities was absent, but I was satisfied with
gional names facilitate rangewide endan-
pulling together Natural Diversity Scorecards
germent ranking and conservation
from individual states. The scorecard report,
planning for natural communities and
which summarizes all locations of priority
ecosystems. The regional classifications
elements in order of quality, condition, viability
will be further integrated with national
and defensibility, forms the basis for annual
and international classifications. As a
conservation planning meetings in most states.
result of these efforts, the global
The Conservancy's Midwest Heritage Task Force
Rhynchospora macrostachya, a
beakrush characteristic of northern
status rank of the coastal plain
has led the way in applying use of the scorecard
coastal plain pond flora.
pond community has been
Photo: Sue Crispin
"Networking" continued page 7
3
Ecology
The first draft of a regional classification of
cooperation among heritage program ecologists
natural communities for the southeastern United
and with the Conservancy's ecology unit in
Dorothy Allard
States was completed this summer. Since 1987,
Charlottesville will continue to improve the
this effort has been funded in part through a
regional classification in successive drafts. This
cooperative agreement with the U.S. Forest
interaction also provides a way for heritage
Service, Region 8. The classification includes
program ecologists to refine their state classifica-
terrestrial, palustrine, and estuarine communi-
tions, since increased knowledge of communities
ties, and covers both natural and anthropogenic
that range beyond state boundaries provides a
types.
better perspective for understanding these
The regional classification relies heavily on
communities within a state.
heritage program classifications which were used
The southeastern regional classification will
to create cross-reference tables relating
not only be used by The Nature Conservancy, but
similar community types in different state classifi-
will also be used by the U.S. Forest Service to
cations to each other. This step helped to define
manage information on communities on national
about 320 community types in the region.
forests in the thirteen states of Region 8.
Improved communication and continued
Animals
A number of neotropical migratory bird popula-
bases then track this status information for each
tions that breed in North America and winter in
area through regular data exchange with HPs and
Larry Master
the tropics are believed to be experiencing
CDCs. By querying the central databases, any
significant declines. John Terborgh recently
network participant can get a snapshot look at
summarized much of the information available on
the status of any vertebrate species in all 50 states
this subject in "Where Have All the Birds
and selected countries. The Conservancy is
Gone?" (Princeton University Press, 1989).
currently seeking support to enable heritage
Heritage programs contribute to our collec-
programs, CDC's and other cooperators, to
tive understanding of the problem in several ways.
complete and regularly update global, national,
Within their own geographic areas, state heritage
and state ranking forms and characterization
programs (HPs) and conservation data centers
abstracts to provide network participants with
(CDCs) maintain data on the status of all verte-
more detailed documentation on the current
brates, including neotropical migrants. The
status of these species everywhere they occur.
Nature Conservancy's central zoological data-
In addition to loss and fragmentation of
"Animals" continued page 7
Plants
To provide the heritage network with a national
vides the Earth into contiguous areas which are
and global perspective, The Nature Conservancy
Larry Morse
under a single government. If these geographical
cooperates extensively with a number of institu-
units are included when recording data like
tions world-wide. Standards for improved inter-
element or element occurrence records, the
institutional data exchange were developed
information can be assembled into broad geo-
recently at the sixth meeting of the Taxonomic
graphic areas (e.g., North America, excluding
Databases Working Group (TDWG) held in
Hawaii), or into areas under the same govern-
Delphi, Greece. The standards for presenting
ment (U.S.A. including Hawaii).
nomenclatural, geographical, and floristic status
The Plant Occurrence and Status Standard
information will be examined closely by the
(POSS) was also approved at the Delphi meeting.
Conservancy for possible implementation in the
POSS provides a precise notation to indicate such
Biological and Conservation Data System (BCD),
facts as whether a plant is native, introduced or
particularly the element data components.
cultivated in a specific place, such as a nation,
For nomenclatural data, TDWG recommen-
state, or protected area. Its relation to our
dations include a full standard, appropriate to bo-
element data structures is being examined care-
tanically exacting projects, and a simpler version,
fully.
appropriate for more general use. The Conser-
By implementing TDWG standards in the
vancy is looking at ways to implement these
BCD to the greatest extent possible, we can
TDWG standards in the BCD.
increase the compatibility of our data with other
The Conservancy will also consider following
botanical databases worldwide.
the TDWG geographical standard, which subdi-
4
Computers and Data Management
BCD Technical Talk - Symbolic Fields, Part II
Keith Carr
Symbolic fields are perhaps the BCD System's most
Once we have created the VCA.FOODHABITS field,
powerful tool for data retrieval and formatting. In this
it remains as a permanent addition in the EOR diction-
edition of BNN we will look at some sample symbolics
ary; it can be used again without any further preparation.
which you can adapt for use with your own BCD System.
Symbolic formulae are written in Advanced Revelation's
Example #2: This symbolic will capitalize the
R/BASIC programming language. Complete information
scientific name correctly. It capitalizes the first letter of
about this aspect of AREV is available in the Technical
the genus name and puts the rest of the binomial/trino-
Reference, which is part of the AREV documentation set.
mial in lower case. Formula:
A good way to learn how to construct your own symbolics
SNAME={SNAME}
is to take any symbolic formula that has already been set
SNAME1=SNAME[1,1]
SNAME2=SNAME[2,99]
up (each BCD data file has a number of standard symbol-
[email protected] TO @UPPER.CASE IN SNAME1
ics) and go through each line of the formula, refering to
T @UPPER.CASE TO IN SNAME2
the Technical Reference as needed.
@ANS=SNAME1:SNAME2
Example #1 - Joining data files (XLATE fields):
Example #3: This symbolic is used to replace the
Joining (or "relating") different data files is a critical
data in the DIRECTIONS field in the EOR with the
operation in any relational database system. In the BCD
phrase "Contact the Virginia Natural Heritage Program"
System this is accomplished through symbolic fields which
in each record where DATASENS equals "Y". It could
use the "translate" function. For example, if we want to
be used in reports where it is necessary to leave out
report on vertebrate element occurrences for frugivorous
locational information for sensitive elements. Of course,
species, we can select appropriate records and fields from
we can change the word "Virginia" to the name of any
the EOR (Element Occurrence Record) data file.
state.
However, the EOR does not contain feeding habit data
DATASENS={DATASENS}
IF DATASENS='Y' THEN
which is general to the element; we must retrieve that
@ANS='Contact the Virginia Natural Heritage Program'
information from related records in the VCA (Vertebrate
END ELSE
Characterization Abstract) file. To do this we create a
@ANS={DIRECTIONS}
END
new multivalued symbolic field in the dictionary for the
EOR file, which translates the contents of the multival-
ued field "FOODHABITS" from the VCA. This will
Example #4: This formula creates a symbolic
containing several EOR fields and formats them so that
permit us to display the contents of the FOODHABITS
field for any and all vertebrate element occurrences. We
when this single symbolic field is displayed it will appear
can name the field VCA.FOODHABITS. The formula
as two lines of data for each EOR record in the report.
will be:
This will allow us to display an R/LIST report containing
@ANS = XLATE("VCA", {ELCODE}, "FOODHABITS", X)
two lines of data per record instead of one. We can
Roughly, the English equivalent of this statement is
change the fields shown to whatever fields are desired, in
"relate to the VCA file using "ELCODE" as the joining
whatever order. However, the first line of the formula
field, and return the value found in the VCA field
must end with "@VM". In the Dictionary window, this
"FOODHABITS". If no related record is found, return a
field must be defined as being multi-valued.
null." As with all symbolic fields, VCA.FOODHABITS
LINE1='SURVEYSITE: ':{SURVEYSITE}:@VM
LINE2={TENTEN}:' ':{PRECISION}:' ':{QC}:' '{MARGNUM}
behaves as if it were a real, stored data item in the EOR
@ANS=LINE1:LINE2
file. Therefore, we can use this as a searching field, and
thus limit our selection to EORs for elements in which
Example #5: This symbolic consists of blanks that
the corresponding VCA records have the desired values
can be used to widen a left margin in an R/LIST report.
in the FOODHABITS field. The two following state-
To create a wider margin, this field is used as the very first
ments illustrate this:
field in the report. The margin width can be adjusted by
1)LIST EOR SNAME LASTOBS WITH VCA.FOODHABITS =
changing the display length of the symbolic field from
"FRUGIVORE"
2)SELECT EOR WITH VCA.FOODHABITS = "FRUGIVORE" OR
within R/LIST (in EasyWriter go to the menu choice
"GRANIVORE" AND WITH COUNTYNAME OF "Washington"
"Reformat a Display Field").
@ANS="
5
Field Notes
Eastern/
The Kentucky State Nature Preserves Commis-
The conference agenda included lectures on
Southern
sion staff welcomed the 1990 Eastern/Southern
the risks of global warming by Dr. Orie Loucks,
Natural Heritage Conference to Park City,
slide presentations on the natural history of the
Heritage
Kentucky. Dave Mihalic, Superintendent of
Mammoth Cave Region by George Gregory of
Conference
Mammoth Cave National Park, also welcomed
Mammoth Cave National Park, and a review of
the September conference. It was the first
the Freedom of Information Act by Hugh Archer.
attempt to expand a heritage conference to
Continuing education seminars covered glade and
include more than one region, and it proved
barrens ecology, forest history, aquatic resources
highly successful and productive. 38 heritage
of the Green River, cave protection, management
programs registered with 190 participants.
and inventory, field data collection techniques,
Conservancy President John C. Sawhill gave
and sessions for scientists and data managers.
the keynote address, emphasizing the heritage
During the conference, Mammoth Cave
network's importance to The Nature Conservancy
National Park was officially dedicated as a Man
and to the nation. Mr. Sawhill recognized that
and the Biosphere Reserve. Mammoth Cave
the creation of a methodological framework for
National Park is interested in building a partner-
assigning conservation priorities through the
ship with The Nature Conservancy and the
element ranking system and the scorecard process
Kentucky Nature Preserves Commission in
have profoundly influenced the effectiveness of
establishing a Natural Heritage Data Center in
land protection.
the Park.
Western/
A foot of snow was dumped on Pingree Park,
following forms were included: 1) site survey 2)
Midwestern
Colorado just in time for the October 9-12
community occurrence survey 3) macroplot vege-
Heritage
Western/Midwestern Heritage Conference.
tation data 4) microplot vegetation data 5) tree
Regional public land protection planners and 27
measurement table and 6) soil survey. Use of
Conference
heritage programs were hosted by the Rocky
forms 3-6 is optional depending on survey needs.
Mountain Heritage Task Force (RMHTF).
The forms are under review by western heritage
The Colorado conference held a special
ecologists and a final version will be generated in
attraction for community ecologists. Community
early 1991.
ecologists reviewed listings of over 1,400 plant
Presentations by western ecologists at the
communities reported to occur in 10 western
conference stressed the use of gradient-oriented
states, and assigned global ranks to each commu-
sampling ("gradsects") to increase the efficiency
nity. About half of the community types were
of field surveys. These methods have been
covered in the limited time available, and the
successfully implemented in heritage studies of
remaining review and ranking will be conducted
the grasslands of Montana, riparian communities
by mail over the next few months. With the
of Colorado, and the Gray Ranch of New Mexico.
comprehensive western classification almost
Gradient sampling will provide input data for
complete, community ecology efforts can soon be
developing models to quantify community/
directed towards applying the classification in
environmental relationships. Linkage of such
conservation planning.
models to GIS and remote sensing will enhance
A set of draft community sampling forms
the value of conservation evaluations at scales
developed by the RMHTF regional ecologist and
ranging from small to very large preserves.
ecologists from the Montana, New Mexico, and
Wyoming heritage programs were also distrib-
uted and briefly discussed. Use of the six forms in
all heritage community surveys in the West will
help achieve standardization of data sets. The
6
Networking With Federal Agencies
The Natural Heritage Program Network cooperates with U.S.federal
National Park Service
agencies in a number of important ways to protect natural diversity.
The Nature Conservancy is responding to
Through inventorying, establishing data centers, developing
National Park Service (NPS) needs by establish-
classification systems and providing scientific information to support
ing park-level heritage programs. The data
stewardship, the Network works together with the National Park
center at Great Smoky Mountains National Park
Service, U.S. Forest Service, U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, Department
was the first such program. Natural heritage
of Defense, and Bureau of Land Management, among others. The
programs in North Carolina, Tennessee, and the
following projects are just a sample of the many cooperative ventures
Tennessee Valley Authority contributed informa-
undertaken in the past year.
tion for building the Park databases. The Park
will reciprocate by supplying with these programs
U.S. Forest Service
a large amount of new data it has gleaned from
Natural heritage program scientists from many
many sources.
states are making major contributions to the
Heritage programs have also been estab-
knowledge, conservation and recovery of threat-
lished at Everglades and Biscayne National Parks
ened, endangered and sensitive (TES) species on
and Big Cypress National Preserve in Florida.
National Forests by inventorying, monitoring and
Under a recent agreement, Heritage data will be
writing species management guides. In some
compiled for Virgin Islands National Park and
cases, heritage program staff, like Steve Shelly of
Buck Island Reef National Monument. We are
the Montana Natural Heritage Program or John
also assembling databases for the Southeast and
DeLapp of the Alaska Natural Heritage Program,
Mid-Atlantic regional offices of NPS. These
are assigned directly to Forest Service offices. In
offices will have occurrence information for rare
Florida, the Biological and Conservation Data
species and exemplary communities on NPS lands
System was installed at a National Forest. The
in their regions. A demonstration database will be
agreement between The National Forests of
set up in the Service's Washington, D.C., office, as
Florida and The Nature Conservancy is the first
well.
such contract to establish a data center.
The Forest Service fulfills major conserva-
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
tion management needs through cost-share
Since 1984, the Conservancy's Eastern
agreements to complete Element Stewardship
Heritage Task Force (EHTF) has been cooperat-
Abstracts (ESAs) and Community Characteriza-
ing with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's
tion Abstracts (CCAs). The Midwest Heritage
Region 5 office to produce status surveys for
Task Force, working with the Forest Service
northeastern candidate plants and animals.
Eastern Region, is now completing or updating
Funds received by EHTF have been used by more
ESAs for 42 of the 77 TES plant species in the
than 25 state Heritage programs to carry out field
Region. A second cost-share agreement proposal
work. By conducting range-wide surveys, the
is pending to complete ESAs for the remaining
heritage network is providing information needed
plant species in 1991. One benefit of writing
by the Fish and Wildlife Service to ascertain
ESAs for sensitive species is the identification of
whether a particular species warrants listing as
key management needs for critical species. ESAs
Endangered or Threatened or, alternatively, is
can also be used as the first step in completing
secure enough at present to remove from the can-
USFS species management guidelines.
didate list. To date, support from the Region 5
At the national level, the Conservany's
office has enabled the global status of 47 plant
Science division and the Forest Service are
taxa and 35 invertebrate taxa to be evaluated. In
cooperatively supporting the national endangered
addition, last year the USFWS contracted with
plant program manager, Chris Topik. Chris is de-
the Conservancy to review the status of all
veloping a Forest Service data module to the
candidate insects in the eastern U.S. (Regions 3,
BCD which will track biological and administra-
4, and 5).
tive data for the more than 1800 plant species for-
mally designated as 'sensitive' by the Regional
Foresters.
7
New Conservation Data Center in Jamaica
Jamaica is the newest addition to the conserva-
tion data center network. With nearly 800 species
of endemic plants, 25 endemic birds and many
endemic reptiles and anphibians, it is one of the
biologically most diverse islands in the world.
To address Jamaica's urgent conservation
needs, a major effort is being focused on the es-
tablishment of a national park system and on the
creation of the conservation infrastructure
needed to successfully manage these parks. This
project is being carried out with the cooperation
of several Jamaican governmental and non-
governmental agencies and with international
technical assistance provided by The Nature
Conservancy and partial funding from the US
Agency for International Development.
The establishment of a conservation data
center at the University of the West Indies' Mona
Jamaica's Blue Mountains. Photo: Bruce Stein.
Campus is a critical part of this effort. One of the
data center's priorities will be to provide the
biological and ecological information needed for
the design and implementation of an island-wide
"Networking" from p. 2.
"Jamaica" continued page 8
on a regional basis for select species. With
assistance from the Joyce Foundation, a major
"Animals" from page 3
project by the Midwest and Canadian Heritage
Task Forces is now underway that attempts to
habitats on their breeding and wintering grounds,
break ground in regional networking of heritage
neotropical migrants are also losing habitat in
data by establishing a Great Lakes heritage data
areas where they concentrate in large numbers
network. More than 8,000 computerized element
during their migrations. Two such areas in the
occurrence records from the eight Great Lakes
Mid-Atlantic states are the Cape May and Cape
states, plus Ontario and Quebec, are being
Charles peninsulas. A unique joint effort, funded
centralized and will form the basis for selecting
in part by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Ad-
high priority sites along the Great Lakes coasts
ministration, National Fish & Wildlife Founda-
for protecting biodiversity and monitoring
tion, and U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service is under-
ecosystem health.
way in the states of Virginia, Maryland, Delaware,
Other efforts will be required to create an
and New Jersey. The Conservancy and the four
ongoing ability to integrate and tap heritage data.
state heritage programs along with cooperating
These include overcoming compatibility prob-
state agencies are conducting a systematic
lems with programs using non-standard operating
inventory of the most significant remaining
systems; establishing a centralized data pool with
migratory stopover areas for neotropical migrants
standard procedures for input and updating;
in this region. Since all four state programs
developing access protocols for users of central-
employ a standarized approach to collect and
ized data; management of secondary datasets at
process information on the classification of
the regional level and/or national (e.g., Canadian)
habitats (plant communities) and their use by
levels; and perhaps most important, development
migratory birds, the study will yield a regional
of protection programs at the state, regional,
overview of priority habitats for neotropical
national, and international levels that capitalize
migrant conservation.
on the incredible conservation planning resource
that pooled heritage data will provide. Look for
other articles in this and future issues of BNN for
updates on the progress in networking heritage
data for biodiversity conservation.
8
"Jamaica" from page 7
national park system plan, and for the
management of two pilot national
parks: the John Crow/Blue Moun-
tains, which includes the highest peak
Biodiversity Network News, Vol. 3, No. 4, 1990. The Nature
on the island, and Montego Bay, a
Conservancy, Science Division newsletter is published quarterly for
marine park.
Heritage, Conservation Data Center and The Nature Conservancy staff,
As one component of the Conser-
volunteers and cooperators.
vancy's technical assistance, Craig
Groves, Coordinator of the Idaho
Editorial Staff
Natural Heritage Program, will take a
Richard Warner
Director, Development and Outreach
three-to-four month assignment as
Brandy Clymire
Editor, Production & Design
technical advisor to the Jamaica
Ruth McMillen
Assistant Editor
Conservation Data Centre beginning
Science Division
in January. Craig will participate in a
Robert E. Jenkins, Jr.
Vice President, Science Division
training session for the Jamaica staff
Hardy Wieting, Jr.
Deputy Director/Legal Adviser
at Conservancy headquarters just
Larry Morse
Chief Botanist
before going to Jamaica to help set up
Larry Master
Chief Zoologist
data center operations. During his as-
Dennis Grossman
Chief Ecologist
signment in Jamaica, Craig will also
Robert Chipley
Director, North American Heritage Operations
provide orientation and training for
Carol Hodge
Dir. of Administration, North Amer. Heritage
individuals from the other participat-
Keith Carr
Director, Conservation Systems & Programming
ing governmental and non-govern-
Bruce Stein
Director, Latin America Science
mental agencies involved with the
program.
CONSERVATION
The
ARLING
U.S.POSTAGE
Nature
THROUGH
DEC27'90
in 0 4 5
Conservancy
PRIVATE ACTION
POMETER
VA
6755838
1815 N. Lynn Street
Arlington, VA 22209
U.S.A.
Printed on Recycled Paper
U.S.
MaB BULLETIN
THE UNITED STATES NATIONAL COMMITTEE FOR THE MAN AND THE BIOSPHERE PROGRAM
December 1990
Volume 14, No. 4
U.S. MAB Chairman's
U.S. Department of State Extends
Appointment of Dr. Lovejoy as National
Invited Lecture
Chairman
Mr. E.U. Curtis Bohlen, Assistant Secretary of
Editor's note: Each year the Chairman of the U.S.
State for Oceans and International Environmental and
National Committee MAB invites a distinguished scholar to
Scientific Affairs, has extended the appointment of Dr.
present a public lecture which is held in conjunction with
Thomas E. Lovejoy as the Chairman of the U.S. National
the summer meeting of the National Committee. In 1990,
Committee for MAB through December 1992.
Dr. Daniel Botkin, Professor of Biology and Environmental
Studies at the University of California, Santa Barbara, was
Mr. Bohlen, in making this extension of Dr.
invited and presented a lecture entitled "Discordant Harmo-
Lovejoy's appointment, noted that the Department of State
nies: A New Ecology for the 21st Century." The following
was " .particularly pleased with the direction and guidance
is a synopsis of that lecture.
that you have provided to the U.S. MAB Program, espe-
cially in promoting the concentrated program areas of
The Difference Between Nature Preserves
directorate activity while maintaining a receptivity to
and Strawberry Preserves
proposals from the wider scientific community. Your
leadership and insistence upon the application of rigorous
When we talk about establishing a new nature
scientific review principles has significantly increased the
preserve and putting land aside for biological conservation,
program's credibility over the past three years."
the words that we use are reminiscent of the way my in-
laws in New Hampshire used to speak about putting up
Mr. Bohlen stated that the Department of State,
some jam and jelly for the winter. We talk as if nature were
along with the other supporting agencies of the U.S. MAB
something that we could bottle, put on the shelf, and take
Program " .anticipate that this momentum toward excel-
down occasionally to savor or admire. This is the way that
lence will only increase under your continued leadership in
many nature preserves have been managed in the 20th
the years ahead."
century.
In This Issue
Hartwick Pines State Park contains the last uncut
original white pine stand in the lower peninsula of Michigan
An Arctic Issue
- 50 acres; that is all that remains of the original 19
million acres of white pine forests that were logged between
ITEX-International Tundra
1840 and 1920. The park is maintained as a recreation area
Experiment
as well as a preserve, and visitors walk through the old-age
forest on pleasant trails. The ground around the big trees is
Northern Sciences Network
trampled by many feet, and there is almost no regeneration
Meeting
Positions Available in Arctic
continued on page 5
Science
Renewable Natural Resources. Dr. Tonelli Munhoz will be
Notes From the Executive Director
well assisted in establishing international MAB policy and
program direction by the election of an exceptionally strong
team of science administrators as MAB vice chairs. All of
U.S. MAB Vice Chair, Dr. Michael A. Little of
the elected vice chairs also chair their respective country's
SUNY-Binghamton, attended as the U.S. Observer Delegate
MAB Programs: MinR. Wilfried Goerke, Germany;
UNESCO MAB's semiannual Intergovernmental Coordinat-
Academician Vladimir Sokolov, USSR; Mr. Yasuo Aruga,
ing Council (ICC) meeting recently held in Paris.
Japan; and, Mr. Sadig Bin Abdel-Hassine Al Mascatti of
Oman. Mr. W.K. Nduku of Zimbabwe was elected
On the bureaucratic/administrative, as well as
rapporteur. The chairperson, vice chairs and rapporteur
image side of the ledger, substantial progress was achieved.
make up the UNESCO MAB Bureau which directs the
In recent years the word "man" in the title of our program
international program between ICC sessions.
has been viewed by some as an anachronism. Well, the
delegates didn't change the name of the MAB program; but,
The ICC also directed the international MAB
they did elect Dr. Tania Maria Tonelli Munhoz to Chair the
Program to make one of its primary areas of concentration
ICC for the next 2 years. She is currently the president of
the world scientific and environmental policy concerning
IBAMA, the Brazilian Institute of Environment and
global climate change. U.S. Observer Delegate Little
addressed the ICC and spoke with numerous delegates
concerning U.S. support for the recommendations made by a
January 1990 UNESCO/MAB workshop on biosphere
U.S.
reserves. The workshop recommended the creation of a
MaB
U.S. MAB BULLETIN
network, on a pilot basis, of biosphere reserves to share
basic information concerning biological indicators of global
change. In our view, the strength of the MAB program's
The U.S. MAB Bulletin is published quarterly by the U.S.
potential contribution to international global change science
MAB Secretariat, OES/EGC/MAB, Department of State, Washing-
and monitoring efforts stems from: first, the wide represen-
ton, DC 20522-0508. Tel. (202) 632-2816, 2786.
tation of the world's major terrestrial biomes within bio-
sphere reserve sites - an admitted weakness in that
"The mission of the United States Man and the Biosphere
coverage is the lack of marine/ocean representation;
Program (U.S. MAB) is to foster harmonious relationships between
secondly, all biosphere reserves are required to have had
humans and the biosphere through an international program of
some scientific infrastructure and research history - so a
policy-relevant research which integrates the social, physical, and
new system would not have to be built from the ground up;
biological sciences to address actual problems. These activities-
and thirdly, most biosphere reserves are governmentally
broadly interpreted-include catalytic conferences and meetings,
operated - which augers well for the long term commit-
ment required for a global monitoring program system. Dr.
education and training, and the establishment and use of biosphere
Little received strong support and expressions of interest
reserves as research and monitoring sites." Adopted by the U.S.
from a number of delegates for such an initiative and
National Committee for the Man and the Biosphere Program,
cooperative effort.
January 6, 1989.
Dr. Otto Solbrig, past chairman of the International
U.S. MAB is supported by the United States Department of
Union of Biological Sciences (IUBS), and formerly a
State, the United States Department of Agriculture-Forest Service,
member of the U.S. National Committee for MAB, also
the United States Department of the Interior-National Park Service,
addressed the ICC. He spoke about how to measure
the Agency for International Development, the Environmental
biological diversity and its role in ecosystem functioning.
Protection Agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
He was commissioned by the ICC to provide a report on the
Administration, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration,
scientific rationale and underpinnings for initiating a global
the Peace Corps, the Smithsonian Institution and the National Science
system of monitoring biological diversity. Dr. Solbrig will
Foundation.
submit his report to the international MAB Bureau in 1991.
The program is organized into five directorates: High Latitude
All in all, these could be very significant steps
Ecosystems; Human Dominated Systems; Marine and Coastal
towards developing the often referred to "potential" for a
Ecosystems; Temperate Ecosystems; Tropical Ecosystems; and a
network of biosphere reserves. U.S. MAB looks forward to
U.S. MAB Coordinating Committee for Biosphere Reserves.
working with all of the MAB programs toward achieving
this goal.
Roger E. Soles
2
UNESCO MAB Northern Sciences Network
scientists making predictions of one sort or another, but they
Meeting
haven't yet heard how the plants and animals in their lives
will be affected," explained Webber. "What happens to the
The UNESCO-MAB Northern Sciences Network
reindeer or whitefish or blueberry plant? No one has
met in Rovaniemi, Finland, September 25-27, 1990, at the
species-specific information to offer.
Arctic Center of Lapland University. All NSN member
states except Iceland were represent at this meeting. U.S.
The agreements reached at this meeting build upon
MAB was represented by Drs. Patrick Webber, Dale Taylor
international cooperation mechanisms, and Webber said he
of the National Park Service and Charles Slaughter of the
hopes ITEX will be a model for studies of other arctic
USDA Forest Service.
organisms. Among the agreements the scientists reached
were that:
The NSN meeting focused on four primary themes:
the first ITEX experiments should focus on
High Latitude Biosphere Reserves, Research and Monitor-
responses of vascular plant species;
a set of abiotic observations and destructive and
ing in Biosphere Reserves and Protected Areas; Sustainable
Conservation and Development; and Subarctic Birch
nondestructive measurements be carefully specified to
Forests. Dale Taylor discussed U.S. Northern Biosphere
determine phenological events, reproductive and vegetative
Reserves, giving special attention to current US-USSR
effort, physiological responses, and genetic response to the
collaboration in Beringia and Noatak Nature Preserve/
manipulation and predominat environmental variables
Biosphere Reserve in northwest Alaska. Dr. Slaughter was
during the growing season over a period of 3 years;
elected to serve on a new International Advisory Group for
explicit protocols be developed for simple and
the Northern Sciences Network which will be chaired by
relatively inexpensive manipulations of air temperature and
Dr. Fred Roots of Canada. Dr. Webber noted that U.S.
snow cover at paraticipating sites;
MAB has allocated funds for the support of a fellowship at
sets of selected individuals in field transplant gar-
Rovaniemi to facilitate circumpolar communication and
dens be subject to a common garden (environmental) experi-
information exchange through the NSN Secretariat (see
ment and assessed in terms of genetic variation within each
following position announcement).
species population and its phenotypic response in order to
evaluate probable adaptations to climate change;
funding for research is the responsibility of each
participating country and may utilize activities already under-
way, and including Biopshere Reserves, protected areas, and
ITEX-International Tundra Experiment
long-term ecological research areas; and,
future experiments focusing on other taxa and eco-
Nearly 40 scientists from nine countries, including
logical parameters, including animals are desirable, and con-
the Soviet Union, gathered at Michigan State University's
tacts for ITEX established through the MAB Northern Sciences
Kellogg Biological Station December 3-6 for a workshop in
Network are encouraged.
which they developed an Arctic experiment. They met to
develop ITEX-the International Tundra Experiment to
determine the impact of global warming on specific plants.
The meeting was organized by Dr. Patrick J.
BUN-Biomass Users Network
Webber, director of the Kellogg Biological Station and the
chairman of the U.S. MAB Directorate on High Latitude
Is an international not-for-profit membership
Ecosystems. The National Science Foundation provided
organization created by and for developing countries to
the funds for the conference while MAB contributed funds
identify opportunities for improving rural economies while
to assist in the conference's planning stages.
protecting natural resources. BUN facilitates information
dissemination, scientific and technical cooperation, and
Webber stated that most scientists agree that as the
funding for demonstration projects in biomass production
Earth's atmosphere warms, the impact would have a
and utilization.
compound effect on the polar regions. This is because we
expect the polar regions to experience greater warming than
For further information, contact P.O. Box 33308,
other regions of the Earth and because arctic organisms are
Washington, D.C. 20033. Telephone (202) 293-4800.
specifically adapted to life in the cold. "Northern natives
hear rumors of the Arctic warming up. They also hear
3
Available Positions in Arctic Science
Director of Arctic Environmental Information and
Data Center - University of Alaska, Anchorage
Fellowship in Northern Sciences Network
The Director is responsible for the overall direction
Applications are requested for an individual who
and management of the Arctic Environmental Information
would spend up to six months based at the MAB Northern
and Data Center. The Center's mission focuses on develop-
Sciences Network headquarters in the Arctic Center,
ing innovative methods of applying science and technical
University of Lapland, Rovaniemi, Finland.
knowledge to examine natural resource and environmental
problems, to assess environmental risks and consequences
The fellowship would provide up to $3,000 per
and to project ecological interactions and trade-offs of
month for salary, cost-of-living allowance and travel funds.
resource use.
The Northern Sciences Network (NSN) is a
This is a full time administrative appointment with
program of the UNESCO Man and the Biosphere (MAB)
an academic appointment in the School of Public Affairs.
Program which distributes information about ongoing
Salary will be a minimum of $70,000. Potential applicants
Arctic and northern research through a newsletter and also
must contact the Personnel Office, University of Alaska
acts as a clearing house for information on special problems
Anchorage, 3211 Providence Drive, Anchorage, Ak 99508
such as sustainable development, human/environment
Telephone (907) 786-4608 for a job summary, qualifica-
interactions and global environmental monitoring as they
tions and application procedures before January 15, 1991.
relate to northern lands.
The University of Alaska is an Equal Opportunity
The Fellow would be expected to help with
Employer.
newsletter development, international communication and
the development of international programs in northern
science such as the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX)
or the Norwegian northern pastoralist project. There will
also be opportunities for personal research.
Natural History Internships at the
Candidates should have a Ph.D. degree or its
Smithsonian
equivalent and research experience in social and/or environ-
mental sciences. The position has no citizenship or resi-
Ten-week training opportunity specifically
dency limitation.
designed for undergraduate college students.
All applicants should be undergraduate students in
The fellowship will be administered by Michigan
botany, zoology or related biological disciplines. Affirma-
State University. Applications are to include curriculum
tive actions principles will be used in the selection proce-
vitae and names of three references. They should be sent to
dure. Applications are due February 1, 1991. For more
Professor P.J. Webber, Chair, U.S. MAB High Latitude
information contact Mary Sangrey, 166 NHB, Smithsonian
Directorate, W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Hickory
Institution, Washington, DC 20560
Corners, MI 49060-9516. Applications will close by
March 1, 1990.
Michigan State University is an Equal Opportunity
Employer.
4
continued from page 1
of white pine in the old-growth stand. Trampling decreases
burned about once a decade until 1700 - until European
regeneration, but also white pine is a species intolerant of
settlement - after which there were no more fires. The
the shade, requiring fairly open conditions for seed germi-
high frequency of fires prior to European settlement is
nation and sapling survival. New Englanders who remem-
generally attributed to direct actions by the American
ber the great hurricane of 1938 can attest that pastures
Indians. Light fires favor oaks over maples. What we have
abandoned after the storm grew back to white pine.
thought of as "natural" was a product of human actions.
I have made projections about the future of the old
The process of preserving Hutcheson Forest by
growth pines at Hartwick State Park using a computer
fixing its condition has led to a fundamental change in its
model of forest growth, called JABOWA, that I developed
character. Once the forest was set aside and preserved, the
with colleagues in 1970 and has been used widely around
management policy was hands off, no action, don't change
the world since then, and that we know is realistic and
the forest. Ironically, as a result the present Hutcheson
accurate. Our projections suggest that the pines are
Forest is deviating from the kind of nature the preserve was
reaching their maximum longevity and most of them are
established to maintain.
likely to die sometime in the next century. Without
regeneration the old growth stand will cease to exist. If we
Introductions of exotic species as a result of human
want old-age white pine stands to be present for our
actions are, of course, another cause of change in nature
descendants to see, then we had better begin to plan now for
preserves. Even if you continue to believe that prior to
the next old-age stand, and actively manage areas in the
human influence nature was unchanging, nature in the late
park to promote white pine regeneration, by producing the
20th century has been so altered by our actions that it will
right kinds of clearings on the right kinds of soils.
change greatly in the future. And if global warming takes
place as projected by the computer models of climate, all of
Hartwick Pines illustrates what we all know but so
our forests in North America, in fact, probably all of our
often forget: nature is dynamic, and natural ecological
nature preserves, will be subjected to drastic changes, with
conditions that we seek to conserve through the Man and
some of those changes beginning in the next decade or two.
the Biosphere Program must be managed with an under-
standing of these dynamic properties. Many pieces of
As a result, those of us who desire to conserve
evidence collected during the past 20 years through ecologi-
examples of original nature find ourselves in an ironic,
cal research make this point clear. One of the most impor-
contradictory situation. The harder we try to achieve our
tant kinds of evidence is the history of vegetation of North
goal directly - the more we try to jell nature and hold it as
America revealed by studies of pollen deposits in lakes.
we think it was - the more we seem likely to fail. Some-
These show that tree species have migrated across the land
thing fundamental is wrong with our approach.
in response to major climatic changes of the last ice age.
Some species, such as chestnut, that we think of as part of
What is wrong with our approach was the subject
the original, permanent forest of the Atlantic Coastal States
of the Chairman's lecture at the annual MAB meeting in
of the United States, arrived in that region within the last
Washington, September 9, 1990. In that lecture I summa-
2,000 years, a short time in the history of forests.
rized the ideas that I discuss in my recent book Discordant
Harmonies: A New Ecology for the 21st Century (Oxford
Sometimes, what we think of as wilderness —
University Press). We have been approaching the conserva-
nature undisturbed by human influence - - has been altered
tion of nature through a myth of constancy, a myth that
for a very long time by people. When Peter Kalm, a
nature, undisturbed by our influences, will achieve a
Swedish botanist, visited the eastern United States in 1749-
constant condition that is its most desirable state. The
50, he wrote that the woodlands near New Brunswick, New
reality, as revealed by many studies in ecology in the last 20
Jersey were composed of mature oaks, hickories, and
years, is that natural ecological systems are always chang-
chestnuts and were so open that one could drive a horse and
ing, always subject to change, adapted to change, and
carriage through the forests with ease. Today, the last
require change. If we hope to preserve examples of nature,
remaining uncut remnant of that woodland, in Hutcheson
our management must be active and take natural dynamic
Memorial Forest 15 kilometers from New Brunswick, is a
qualities into account.
dense thicket of many small stems, interspersed with old
oaks and hickories, but almost no regeneration of these
Another consequence of our modern understanding
species. Saplings are mostly of sugar and Norway maples.
of ecological systems for the conservation of nature is that
Fire scars visible in cut stumps of dead trees reveal that fires
there is not just one kind of nature to be preserved, but at
continued on page 6
5
continued from page 5
least three. The standard notion of wilderness in America is
the idea of land untrammeled by people - a place where
Newest Release from the
there is no appearance of human actions. But as Hutcheson
UNESCO MAB Book Series
Memorial Forest suggests, if we really remove all human
actions we create a forest nobody has ever seen. Even if
Volume 5, Sustainable Development and
exotic species had not been imported into North America,
Hutcheson Forest, without disturbances wrought by fire,
Environmental Management of Small
would not look like the forest inhabited by the Native
Islands edited by William Beller (of the U.S. MAB
Americans prior to European colonization, nor seen by the
directorate on Caribbean Islands), P. Ayala and Philippe
first European explorers. As Hartwick Pines State Park
L. Hein. This book is composed of three parts. The first
warns us, forests put up on the shelf with no provisions for
addresses issues related to islands in general. The second
regeneration will not preserve the species they were set up
provides case studies of particular islands and island groups.
to save.
The final part coalesces the first two into recommendations
for sustainable development and environmental manage-
These lessons suggest to us that we need three
ment of small islands in specific geographic regions.
kinds of nature preserves: (1) areas set aside for conserva-
tion of a specific rare or endangered species or ecological
Also recently released:
community; (2) areas with the look of land as seen by the
first explorers (in North America, a nature of the 17th or
Volume 3, Exploiting the Tropical
18th century); and (3) areas truly isolated from direct human
actions, whose purpose is not so much to conserve a
Rainforest, An Account of Pulpwood
mythical climax ecosystem, but to serve as a scientific
Logging in Papua New Guinea edited by D.
experiment, a kind of ecological experimental control, a
Lamb of the Botany Department, University of Queensland,
baseline against which we can view our actions in the rest of
Australia. This book describes a large pulpwood logging
the areas that we attempt to manage for the other purposes I
operation in the lowland rainforests of Papua New Guinea.
have described.
It examines the events leading up to the decision to begin
pulpwood logging, and some of the consequences the
As we plan for the 21st century, the primary lesson
project has had on the forests and people of Papua New
for biological conservation is that nature preserves are not
Guinea.
like strawberry preserves; they cannot be bottled, put on the
shelf, and preserved indefinitely. They must be managed
These publications are available from The Parthenon
dynamically for specific goals. Once we have established a
Publishing Group, Inc., 120 Mill Road, Park Ridge, NJ
natural area as part of the Man and the Biosphere Program,
07656, USA.
we must seek to conserve it as a dynamic, changing entity.
That is the message of the Chairman's lecture of 1990, and
one of the major messages of Discordant Harmonies.
6
PUBLICATIONS
Free publications from U.S. MAB:
Available from others:
REMEMBER, ENCLOSE YOUR SELF-AD-
TOWARDS SERVING VISITORS AND MANAGING
DRESSED MAILING LABEL (OR LABELS, IF
OUR RESOURCES: Proceedings of a North American
Workshop on Visitor Management in Parks and Pro-
YOU ARE REQUESTING SEVERAL ITEMS).
tected Areas, Tourism Research and Education Center,
University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada N2L
New from U.S. MAB:
3G1. Cost: $24.95 plus $8.60 for postage and handling.
Bibliography on the International Network of
BIOSPHERE RESERVE Brochure/Map. Listing and
location of all (international and U.S.) biosphere reserves as
Biosphere Reserves, U.S. MAB Coordinating Com-
of July 1989. Containing a new code to the location of all
mittee for Biosphere Reserves and the UNESCO MAB
biosphere reserves. Available from: GPO Bookstore, 710
Secretariat, July 1990.
North Capitol Street, Washington, DC 20401. Tel.
(202)783-3238. New Stock # 044-000-02277-0 @ $3.00
Still available from U.S. MAB:
each or $225.00 for 100.
CONNECT UNESCO-UNEP Environmental Education
Ecoregions Map of the Continents, A New Aid to
Newsletter Vol. XV, No. 1, March 1990. Environmentally
Monitoring Global Change by Robert G. Bailey A map
Educated Teachers, The Priority of Priorities? and Vol.
which shows the Earth's land areas subdivided into regions
XV, No. 2, June 1990. Basic Concepts of Environmental
based on macroscale patterns of ecosystems. These regions
Education.
delimit large areas within which local ecosystems recur
throughout the region in a predictable fashion. The map
PARK SCIENCE, National Park Service, Summer 1990
can, therefore, be used to spatially extend data obtained
and FAll 1990 issues. A report on recent and ongoing
from limited sample sites. Copies of the map are available
research in parks with emphasis on its implications for
from: Robert G. Bailey, USDA Forest Service, 3825 E.
planning and management. Development of new guidelines
Mulberry St. Fort Collins, Colorado 80524.
for planning and implementing resource management
activities and training.
World Resources 1990-91 a complete reference book
Puerto Rico Workshop on LAND-BASED SOURCES
produced by the World Resources Institute on global
environmental trends and conditions. It contains new
OF MARINE POLLUTION IN THE WIDER CARIB-
BEAN REGION, August 7-9, 1989, San Juan, Puerto Rico.
findings on the rate of tropical deforestation; rankings of
greenhouse gas emissions, by country; an overview of Latin
America's environment; and reports and analyses of the
Proceedings of the U.S. Man and the Biosphere-spon-
most critical environmental and natural resource problems.
sored workshop on Non-Commodity Forest Resources
held at the national headquarters of the Society of American
This publication is available at a cost of $17.95 plus $3.00
Foresters on August 24, 1989. The workshop was designed
for handling from WRI Publications, P.O. Box 4852,
to encourage better communication between the environ-
Hampden Station, Baltimore, MD 21211
mental community and the USDA Forest Service regarding
UNESCO Publication, MAB Digest 1 on Eutrophication
the need for Forest Inventory and Analysis data sets for the
evaluation of noncommodity forest resources. The docu-
Management Framework for the Policy-Maker by
ment contains some valuable information, and will be of
Marjorie Holland, Walter Rast and Sven-Olof Ryding.
assistance in the identification of additional sources of
Eutrophication of lakes and reservoirs is one of the most
information.
pervasive water quality problems worldwide. This digest
aims to provide: quantitative tools for assessing the state of
eutrophication of lakes and reservoirs; a framework for
developing cost-effective management strategies; specific
continued on page 8
7
ASHING
U.S. OFFICIAL MAIL
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DEC 01'90
PRIVATE
USE $300
continued from page 7
¥0.35
wa
a
technical guidance and case studies for effective manage-
Final Report of the International Workshop, "Long-
ment of eutrophication. Available from: MAB-UNESCO,
Term Ecological Research - A Global Perspective,"
7, place de Fontenoy, 75700 Paris.
September 18-22, 1988 in Berchtesgaden, Federal Republic
of Germany. It is available from: MinR Wilfried Goerke,
UNESCO Publication, MAB Digest 3 on Contributing to
Dipl.-Biolge, Bundesministerium fur Umwelt, Naturschutz
Sustained Resource Use in the Humid and Sub-Humid
und Reaktorsicherheit, Godesberger Allee 90, 5300 Bonn 2,
Tropics, Some Research Approaches and Insights, by
Federal Republic of Germany.
Malcolm Hadley and Kathrin Schreckenberg. An overview
of recent, ongoing, and planned activities within the MAB
framework pertaining to the ecology of humid and sub-
humid tropical ecosystems, principally forests and savannas.
Available from: MAB-UNESCO, 7, place de Fontenoy,
75700 Paris.
DEPARTMENT OF STATE PUBLICATION 9731
Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental
and Scientific Affairs
Released December 1990
U.S. Man and the Biosphere Program, OES/EGC/MAB
DEPARTMENT OF STATE, U.S.A.
U.S. MAIL
Washington, D.C. 20522-0508
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8
EPA in the News
Chill on 'greenhouse' treaty
Experts see big splits among nations at global warming talks
By Deborah Blum
Sacrament
In 1987, disturbed by the appear-
country that is emitting more carbon
ance of holes in the ozone layer, an
Bee Science Writer
12/8/90
international agreement was signed
per capita than any other country in
the world."
to end the use of chlorofluorocar-
SAN FRANCISCO - Drafting a
bons, the compounds blamed for the
U.S. annual carbon emissions are
treaty to save the Earth's ozone layer
damage. Chloroflurocarbons, used as
equivalent to about 5 tons of carbon
was easy compared to the battles ex-
coolants and insulators, also, help
per resident. The average for other
pected over controlling global
drive the greenhouse effect. But,
industrialized nations is 3.1 tons per
warming, a federal climate expert
even more troubling is a soaring
resident a year.
said Friday.
Knauss, a U.S. delegate to the Sec-
John Knauss, head of the National
buildup of other gases, particularly
ond World Climate Conference in
Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminis-
carbon dioxide, which is generated
November, admitted the country's
tration, said he expects major diffi-
by burning fossil fuels.
position was not popular.
culties when delegates meet next
Although no one yet has clearly
"I'm not defending it," he said, ad-
year. to start drafting a treaty to re-
documented a resulting trend toward
ding the U.S. tends to take non-bind-
duce "the greenhouse effect."
global warming, scientific studies of
ing resolutions, such as that pro-
The United States is hosting the
the planet's history show that when
posed last month, more seriously
first international session on a
carbon increases in the atmosphere,
than other countries. Knauss said he
"Framework Convention on Climate
the Earth heats up. Scientists worry
expects the American position to
Change" in February. At a prelimi-
the greenhouse effect could dramati-
soften during the treaty negotiations
nary meeting in November, the Unit-
cally alter the global climate, causing
ed States took a position against set-
severe droughts, melting glaciers and
on global warming.
"For one thing, if it doesn't, there
ting hard limits on industrial gases
ice sheets, driving up ocean levels.
won't ever be a treaty," he said.
associated with warming, angering
"We see a slight rise in tempera-
Both he and Bernthal said the
many other countries.
ture and slight rise in sea levels al-
United States already is weighing
"Ozone was a trivial problem com-
ready," said Geoff Jenkins, of the
regulations that would solve other
pared to what we face with the
British Meteorological Office. "But, it
environmental problems while help-
greenhouse effect," Knauss warned
could be natural variation and it
ing out with the greenhouse effect.
during a meeting of the American
could be the greenhouse effect."
"I would point out that while we
Geophysical Union here. "Already
Jenkins led a scientific assessment
haven't been signing political docu-
we are hearing critical disagree-
of the greenhouse effect for the Inter-
ments, we have just passed a very
ments and we haven't even started
governmental Panel on Climate
stringent Clean Air Act," Knauss
the formal meetings yet."
Change, which was created by inter-
said. "So, unlike some countries, we
N. "Ram" Sundararaman, secre-
national agreement in 1988 to world
are not just talking about action."
tary of the international Intergovern-
governments begin to deal with glob-
mental Panel on Climate Change,
al warming. Its first report was re-
agreed. He said the world's govern-
leased in August.
ments already have split into at least
Fred Bernthal, acting director of
sèven different positions, ranging
the National Science Foundation and
from powerful industrial interests,
another member of the panel, said
expressed by the United States, to ti-
the report should be considered only
ny countries who fear that they will
interim. Nevertheless, the panel did
be victims of the pollution from the
conclude the greenhouse effect was
wealthier nations.
scientifically valid and severe envi-
"We have disagreements between
ronmental impacts are likely during
governments. And we have disagree-
the next century.
ments within governments," Sundar-
The growing consensus that the
araman said. "With ozone depletion,
greenhouse effect must be controlled
that was pretty much handled by en-
led to a confrontation between the
vironmental agencies. But, with the
United States and other countries
greenhouse effect, you bring issues
during a November meeting on
of major finance, of trade, of energy
world climate.
policy. It's much more complicated."
European countries, in particular,
Depletion of upper atmosphere
wanted quotas set on greenhouse
ozone and the greenhouse-like
gases, urging at least a 20 percent re-
warming of the Earth have become
duction in carbon dioxide by the year
major issues for world governments.
2000. The United States refused to
Both are related to human activities.
join a non-binding statement to that
Scientists discovered the planet's
effect, arguing more research is
ozone layer, which protects life
needed.
against harmful solar radiation, was
"We were looking for U.S. leader-
being severely damaged by industrial
ship at the November meeting and
pollutants. Researchers have docu-
we didn't see it." said Delphine Bor-
mented a steady increase in certain
ione, of the French Ministry of For-
gases that tend to trap heat in the
eign Affairs. "Europe was pushing
planet's atmosphere, an effect often
and the U.S. was braking. And we're
compared to a greenhouse.
concerned to see this attitude from a
EPA in the News
cont'd
Barstow
Claiming the Eagle Mountain project "is not feasible "I
N
40
not practical not cost-effective," he said bitterly:
40 miles
15
was going to take out an ad in the Wall Street Journal:
Amboy
'Come to Riverside County. Future home of the biggest
Proposed
garbage dump on Earth.'
San
In Los Angeles County, both Rail-Cycle and Mine lines Rec-
Los Angeles
Bernardino
landfill
lamation Corp are already targeting sites along rail
to build waste-loading facilities to transfer Angelenos'
garbage onto trains.
10
Proposed
Eagle
landfill
Mountain
Rail-Cycle cials, who hope to have their San Bernar-
Pacific
dino landfill ready for 3,000 daily tons by 1993, have
Ocean
pledged to remove some 40 percent of solid waste materi-
als for recycling before taking the rest to the desert. A
task force of 29 San Gabriel Valley residents is studying
Bee graphic
the plan.
Recently, 15,000 residents signed petitions fighting ex-
pansion of the garbage-glutted Puente Hills landfill in the
San Gabriel Valley. With its landfills filling up and angry
and
citizens having fought off proposals for air-polluting in-
cinerators and having battled new or expanded dumps,
Los Angeles County is unquestionably looking for relief.
"We're on the threshold of a crisis," said Don Nellor, a
planner for the county sanitation district.
Waste Management last year opened a high-tech gar-
bage dump in tiny Arlington, Ore. to truck household
waste from Portland, 137 miles away. But the waste-by-
rail proposal, a system utilized by some European cities,
has never been tried in the United States.
It remains a notion unacceptable for Peter Burk, vice
chairman of the Sierra Club's Southern California desert
committee. Burk said he wants proof the landfills won't
"turn into raven breeding grounds" and leak contami-
nants into underground water sources.
"There are so many things in the desert that need sav-
ing," he said. "It's painful to hear this other view: 'Well,
let's just dump it in the desert.'
Phil Beautrow, Waste Management's man-
ager of landfill development, contends that
special plastic liners and state-of-the-art drain-
age systems would prevent any seepage into
groundwater. He said protective covers and
other steps easily address any fears "that all of
a sudden you'll have Alfred Hitchcock's 'Birds'
out there."
At Eagle Mountain, MRC senior vice presi-
dent Gary Kovall claimed that thousands of
tons of existing clay will safely line the landfill
and said the project also includes a land swap
to protect 3,000 acres of desert tortoise habitat.
Kent Statler, who once owned the Eagle
Mountain Shopping Center, said, "I'd rather
see a manufacturing plant. Everybody would
like to see something nice. But let's face it, we
don't have that opportunity or choice. I'd like
to see the town back."
EPA in the News
SCIENCE & SOCIETY
GENERAL
Hybrid. General Motors' new van uses electricity and gas.
Motoring into
the future
The war in the Persian Gulf has heightened the
urgency of finding alternatives to gasoline
peration Desert Storm has un-
level ever. Worse, imports are projected
derscored in the most dramatic
filth of gasoline engines, which contrib-
to rise in the future as old U.S. oil fields
way possible America's contin-
utes significantly to urban smog. Alterna-
run dry. If nothing were done, the bulk of
ued dependence on imported oil. But
tive fuels could help reduce these harm-
the nation's future transportation fuel
ful emissions.
one fact that remains poorly appreciated
would have to come from politically un-
is that the only crucial energy-supply
Compressed natural gas. This fuel,
stable countries around the Persian Gulf,
problem facing the country today is the
known by the initials CNG, is the first
where two thirds of the world's known oil
fueling of Americans' favorite personal
alternative likely to make a dent in gas-
is located and war now rages.
technology. the automobile. And that
oline sales. With a cost comparable to
Fortunately, steps are being taken on
crisis. too. is likely to begin diminishing
about 70 cents a gallon, CNG is cheap-
the environmental front that guarantee
before the end of the century, as clean-air
er than gasoline, causes less tailpipe
the availability of cars, vans and pickup
policies force the development of alter-
pollution and comes from relatively
trucks powered by electricity, natural gas
abundant U.S. and Canadian sources.
native motor fuels and motor cars that
and reformulated gasoline within the de-
use them. In fact, America could enter
CNG's low cost has already won over
cade. Alcohol fuels such as methanol and
the next millennium well on the way to-
many fleet operators. About 30,000 cars
ethanol may also be on the way. For one
and trucks in the United States and
ward reducing the twin plagues of auto-
thing, the 1990 Clean Air Act mandates
mobile pollution and energy insecurity.
700,000 worldwide burn CNG, includ-
that gasoline be "re-engineered" to re-
Virtually all the energy used to make
ing 300,000 in Italy, where it has been
duce harmful pollutants and requires
used since the 1930s. The Clean Air Act
electricity. heat homes and drive fac-
that certain commercial fleets use
tories comes from secure, low-cost and
requires that, starting in 1998, large-city
"clean" fuels such as domestically pro-
plentiful domestic sources, principally
operators of centrally fueled fleets of 10
duced natural gas. Perhaps more impor-
coal. natural gas, nuclear and hydro. But
or more vehicles begin to use "clean"
tant, California, long the leader in auto
America's mobile society requires liquid
fuels. According to the American Gas
pollution reductions, decreed last fall
Association, 8 to 10 million vehicles
fuels that pack enormous energy into
that, starting in 1998, all car builders do-
small portable tanks. Nearly two thirds of
ing business in the state must offer zero-
could be powered with less than 6 per-
the 17 million barrels of petroleum con-
emission electric vehicles for sale. Since
cent of current U.S. natural gas con-
sumed by Americans every day is used by
Californians buy 1 of every 10 cars made
sumption. CNG is reportedly so clean
185 million cars, trucks and buses as well
in the United States, this will have the
that crankcase oil lasts 50,000 miles and
as aircraft and locomotives. During the
effect of forcing all manufacturers to of-
spark plugs rarely need replacing.
seven months before Iraq's invasion of
fer electric vehicles.
Burning natural gas in cars is not
Kuwait. over half the oil burned in the
Both the federal law and the Califor-
without problems. The gas must be
United States was imported, the highest
nia action are meant to cut back on the
pressurized to 3,000 pounds per square
inch and stored in bulky cylinders simi-
USNEWS& WORLD REPORT FEBRUARY 1991
lar to those used by scuba divers. Even
cont'd
EPA in the News
cont'd
proponents argue that once electrics are
buyers incentives such as tax advantages,
marketed sales will go higher still.
special access to car-pool lanes and pref-
Electric vehicles promise enormous
under high pressure the gas contains
erential parking with electric outlets for
environmental and energy-security ad-
recharging, contends GM
only about one fourth as much energy
vantages. The vehicles themselves don't
President Lloyd Reuss.
as the same volume of gasoline. As a
pollute at all and, even when the emis-
Even with government in-
result, a tank of CNG must be four
sions from power plants used to charge
centives, motorists will have to
times as big as a tank of unleaded to
batteries are considered, an electric car
like the cars' performance if
give the same driving range. The entire
adds less than 5 percent of the pollution
they are to be a success in the
trunk of a small car, for example, would
of a typical gasoline-powered car. Fur-
long run, and manufacturers
be required just for fuel storage.
thermore, about 95 percent of power-
are banking on the electric
Because of the bulky tanks and lack of
plant fuels are domestic. Because elec-
cars' unique qualities: Elec-
public filling stations, most CNG is now
tric cars would be recharged at night
trics make almost no noise, for
used in commercial flects that return to
when there is a large surplus of generat-
example and, since they lack
the same parking lot each night to be
ing capacity, tens of millions of electric
complex engines "they have
refueled. Washington Gas, which serves
cars would have to be on the road be-
the potential to be very reli-
homes in the District of Columbia area,
fore there would be a need for new
able essence, no-mainte-
operates 220 service vans that can switch
power plants to support them.
nance vehicles," argues Brad-
between gasoline and natural gas. With
The Big Three U.S. auto manufactur-
ford Bates, Ford's manager
two CNG tanks that together hold the
ers all have clear plans to meet Califor-
for electric power.
equivalent of 9 gallons of gasoline, the
nia's requirement. Ford and Chrysler
Batteries remain a crucial
vans almost never use gasoline while
expect to offer electric versions of their
weakness. At present, Chrys-
traveling an average of 60 miles a day.
popular minivans. GM will sell a small,
ler and Ford plan to use ad-
Refueling can take up to six hours with
sporty, two-passenger electric commut-
vanced nickel-iron or sodium-
less-expensive "slow-fill" compression
er similar to the Impact show car it
sulfur batteries costing $5,000
systems. At "quick-fill" facilities with big
demonstrated last year. The U.S. com-
to $10,000 a set that last the life
compressors, filling up takes little longer
panies all say they will offer these vehi-
of the vehicle; maintenance
than for gasoline.
cles in other states with acute smog
will be largely limited to re-
So far, most CNG vehicles have been
problems and probably in Europe, too.
placing worn tires, brakes and
converted from gasoline with simple add-
First, however, car builders must
windshield wipers. The $1,500
on kits that cost between $2,000 and
overcome psychological as well as tech-
lead-acid battery pack in
$3,000. Next month, the first factory-war-
nological hurdles. "How do you sell a
GM's Impact is expected to
ranted natural-gas vehicles, GMC Sierra
vehicle that doesn't quite measure up in
last about 20,000 miles.
pickups, will go on sale in Texas and
driving range and performance at a pre-
Lack of range may not be
California. Three slender fiberglass-
mium price?" asks Robert Davis, execu-
the problem many fear, given
wrapped tanks over 5 feet long, tucked
tive engineer for Chrysler's electric-van
the way most people actually
along the pickup's frame, hold enough
project. First-generation electric vehi-
use cars. The average Ameri-
CNG for 150 to 200 miles; the truck car-
cles will go only about 100 miles before
they must be plugged in
can driver goes only 15 to 35 miles a
ries no gasoline. Equipped with a catalyt-
for several hours to be
day, well within an electric's range, says
ic converter and computerized engine
Donald Runkle, GM vice president for
controls, the GM truck promises better
recharged, and they will
cost several thousand
advanced technology. For longer trips,
performance and lower emissions than
dollars more than
motorists will have to take a gasoline
retrofitted gasoline models. General
Motors will build 1,000 new pickups un-
equivalent gasoline
car perhaps an unusual hybrid ve-
cars. Because of their
hicle. Around town, a hybrid like the
der a cost-sharing agreement with gas
new GM van demonstrated last month
utility companies but, says Richard Pen-
higher price, electrics
over their lifetime will
operates on batteries. On long trips, a
nell, GMC's product-line manager,
"we're looking at this as the start of a new
cost the consumer
small gasoline-driven generator kicks in
somewhat more than
automatically to recharge the batteries.
business." Initially, the cost and inconve-
Reformulated gasoline. For the fore-
nience of CNG-powered cars will proba-
gasoline cars, even
bly deter consumers, but manufacturers
though the cost of elec-
seeable future, analysts believe that gas-
oline will remain the dominant fuel. But
believe sales will grow as fuel storage,
tric power for recharg-
ing will run only two to three cents a
gasoline will be changed to produce less
delivery and marketing develop.
mile. Heating and cooling electrics is
pollution, even in older cars. Beginning
Electric. After years of promise, it is
also a major technical problem, since us-
in 1995, the Clean Air Act requires that
nearly certain that electric vehicles final-
ing the battery power for passenger
reformulated gasoline be sold in the
ly. will be sold generally in the United
States, perhaps as soon as 1995. The Cali-
comfort cuts a car's driving range. Elec-
nine cities with the worst ozone pollu-
trics will be heavily insulated to mini-
fornia Air Resources Board is trying to
tion; reformulation
force the development of a market with a
mize the energy needed for air condi-
means an adjustment in
new rule requiring any manufacturer
tioning and heating.
gasoline's chemical
Public concern about air quality may
selling cars in the state to offer zero-
components to reduce
emission vehicles (ZEVs). In practice,
help spur sales. In fact, after GM showed
harmful emissions.
this means "electrics." Starting in 1998, 2
the Impact last year at the Los Angeles
Compliance with the
percent of a manufacturer's car and
Auto Show, the company was deluged
new law will account
light-truck sales must be ZEV; by 2003,
with requests for information. But con-
for over one fifth of
10 percent. This translates into a market
sumer good will won't be enough to
U.S. gasoline sales. As
make electrics succeed; federal and state
of about 200.000 a year. The edict applies
much as one half of all
to all makers. foreign and domestic, and
governments will need to offer potential
gasoline will have to be
cont'd
EPA in the News
cent'd
re-engineered by refin-
Choosing a route
ers if other urban areas
All future fuel options have advantages and disadvantages
that do not meet ozone
standards decide to join the program
Advantages
Disadvantages
voluntarily. The cost to modify refiner-
Natural gas
ies could reach $40 billion.
Some domestic supplies
Very widespread use requires
Research on how to make the changes
Abundant gas overseas
imports
has already begun. Pourteen oil compa-
Low emissions
One fourth the range of
nies and the three major U.S. auto com-
Lower fuel cost
gasoline
panies have joined forces to figure out
Vehicle development
Filling stations must be built
advanced
the best ways to modify both gasoline and
the cars that burn it. Oil and auto compa-
Electric
nies, which in the past rarely spoke to one
Abundant domestic fuel
Limited range and power
another, are for the first time working
Zero vehicle emissions
Batteries expensive
together on the pollution problem.
Generating capacity now
Slow refueling
available
Some power plant emissions
Alcohol fuels. Although alcohol fuels
Low fuel cost
Heating, cooling difficulties
got a lot of early hype as sound alterna-
tives to gasoline, experts say now that
Reformulated gasoline
they have failed to live up to their early
Existing filling stations
No energy security advantage
Small to moderate emission
promise. Both methanol, made from
Possible high costs to modify
reduction
refineries
natural gas or coal, and ethanol, derived
from corn and other crops, have proved
Methanol
too costly to serve as clean
Liquid fuel
Half the range of gasoline
substitutes. In addition, meth-
Abundant supplies
Imported from Middle East
Less ozone pollution
Formaldehyde problem
anol would have to come from
the Soviet Union and coun-
Ethanol
tries around the Persian Gulf
Liquid fuel
Much higher fuel cost
that have large surpluses. Im-
Domestic production
Corn supply limited
efficiency
Competition with food
porting from these regions
Less ozone pollution
Less range than gasoline
would not contribute much to
energy security. Both com-
USN&WR - Basic data: Office of Technology Assessment. others
pounds, however, may prove
useful as blends in reformu-
lating gasoline to comply with
emissions requirements.
Stricter emissions rules
end
alone will raise the future cost
of motoring. But Operation
Desert Storm may raise the
ante higher and more quickly.
Congress may decide to raise
gasoline taxes to promote con-
servation, spur adoption of al-
ternative fuels and pay for the
war. The country is learning
that assuring supplies of inex-
pensive petroleum can have a
very high price. As energy ana-
lvst Adam Sieminski of Wash-
ington Analysis Corp. ob-
serves. "The public's appetite
for cheap gasoline might be
curbed by the sight of
blood."
BY WILLIAM J. COOK
"What is important in addressing future climate change is the total and
cumulative effect of all gases-all sources and all sinks."
O3
Isoprene (CH)
NOx
Natural VOC
CF3Br
SO2
CFC12
C6H6
Manmade VOC
Coastal Marsh
Watershed Ecosystems
Ocean Phytoplankton Concentrations
Irrigated Land
Burning Rainforest
Tundra
Relative Radiative
Forcing Potential over Years
GAS
Instantaneous Radiative
Atmospheric Residence
Forcing per KG (rel. to CO2)
Years (estimated)
20
100
500
CO2
1
120
1
1
1
CH4
58
10
63
21
9
N2O
206
150
270
290
190
CFC-11
3970
60
4500
3500
1500
CFC-12
5750
130
7100
7300
4500
Source: IPCC Scientific Assessment, 1990, Tables 2.3, 2.8
Photos: Cover: Caribbean as seen by IMAX camera from the Space Shuttle, © MCMXC Smithsonian Institution/Lockheed Corporation. Inside Flap
Background: Straits of Gibralter by IMAX, © Smithsonian Institution/Lockheed Corporation. Highland Rainforest, © Robert & Linda Mitchell; New Growth &
Old Growth Forests, © Charles A. Mauzy; Coastal Marsh, © Tom Blagden, Jr.; Electricity Production, © Erich Hartmann; Transportation, © Japan Broadcast
Corporation; Rice Paddies, © Mike Yamashita; Burning Rainforest, IMAX Image, ©Smithsonian Institution/Lockhead Corporation; Tundra, © Dr. Jerry Brown,
Global Change Research Background Image is the Atmosphere as seen by an IMAX Camera from the Space Shuttle.
CLIMATE CHANGE: Comprehensive Approach
Gases
N2O
COS
H2O
CO2
CH4
Sinks
Rainforest
New Growth Forest
Old Growth Forest
Sources
Electrical & Industrial Production
Transportation
Rice Paddies
Global Warming Potential Index
WAVELENGTH
ESTIMATED LIFETIME, YEARS
RADIATIVE FORCING
5
CFC-115
CO2
4
CF3Br
CFC-114
CH4
3
CFC-113
N2O
HFC-125
2
CC14
CFC-11
1
HFC-143a
CFC-12
HCFC-22
0
PASSIDENT PR EPLURIBUS OF UNUM THE UNITED
THE
OF
SEAL
7
STATES
An Acti
THE COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH TO CLIMATE CHANGE
T he science and economics of
The "Comprehensive Approach"
tial" (GWP) based on the radiative
human interactions with the global
has several advantages:
behavior of the gas in the atmosphere.
climate involve multiple trace gases
It provides flexibility for each nation
The Intergovernmental Panel on
affected by activities in every sector of
to develop a diverse, innovative,
Climate Change (IPCC) has calculated
human society. Each of these
cost-effective mix of measures to
such a relative measure, giving carbon
greenhouse gases is emitted from a
meet its global responsibilities in a
dioxide a value of one (1) and
variety of sources and is trapped or
manner tailored to its own domestic
expressing all other gases in terms of
affected by "sinks" in different ways.
circumstances;
carbon dioxide equivalents. This
Each gas has a different residence time
It is designed to employ the results of
"index" enables a comparison of the
in the atmosphere, a different ability to
integrated scientific and economics
contributions of different gases,
trap heat, and different potential
research on a comprehensive basis,
incorporating both sources and sinks.
impacts on the environment. What is
leaving no important variable
The comprehensive approach
important in addressing future climate
omitted;
should inform the development of
change is the total and cumulative
It maximizes the benefits to the
scientific and economics research,
effect of all gases-all sources and all
environment and to humanity from
monitoring, technology development,
sinks.
each investment; and
and each country's action plan for
In November 1990, the
It accounts for all greenhouse gases,
dealing with global change. The costs
government ministers at the Second
insuring that choices do not reduce
of achieving a given reduction in the
World Climate Conference (SWCC)
one gas but inadvertently increase
added greenhouse effect will vary from
declared: "We recommend that in the
another.
gas to gas and will vary depending on
elaboration of response strategies, over
The relative benefit from a unit
which sources or which sinks of any
time, all greenhouse gases, sources, and
reduction in the net emissions of each
given gas are affected. Using the
sinks be considered in the most
greenhouse gas can be approximated by
Comprehensive Approach, for
comprehensive manner possible "
a measure of "global warming poten-
example, maximum reduction in net
climate impact-and therefore
CLIMATE PROCESSES
maximum benefit to the
environment-can be achieved for any
given level of investment.
OZONE DEPLETING GASES
O3
If response strategies were designed
SO2 NOx
to apply piecemeal to one greenhouse
H2O
CO2 CH4 N2O
gas or economic sector, economic
actors could simply adjust to such
FOSSIL-FUEL
CONSUMPTION
RESPIRATION
narrowly focused regulation by shifting
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPIRATION
DECOMPOSITION
ACTIVITIES
to unregulated activities that could
N2
CARBON,
NITROGEN,
SULFUR,
AGRICULTURAL
continue to contribute to potential
PHOSPHORUS,
ACTIVITIES
IN PLANTS &
ANIMALS
climate change.
A comprehensive approach, on
UREA
RUNOFF
TOXIC
PHYTO-
ZOO-
METALS
PLANKTON
PLANKTON
the other hand, matches the scientific,
NITRATES,
NITRATE, DEAD
economic, and environmental nature
SULFATES,
ORGANIC MATTER
NUTRIENT
NITROGEN
PHOSPHATES
AND DECOMPOSERS
RECYCLING
FIXING
of the whole climate system.
BACTERIA
PHOSPHATES
OCEAN SEDIMENTS
* A larger report on "A Comprehensive Approach to Addressing
Potental Climate Change", prepared by a U.S. Interagency Task
Force is available on request.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Implementation of the President's
Promoting the use of, and
Chart 2 shows an alternative
Comprehensive Climate Change
accelerating research into, non-fossil
estimate based upon a different
Strategy will result in United States
fuel energy sources such as solar,
economic model prepared by
greenhouse gas emissions in the year
nuclear, and alternative fuels.
researchers at Harvard University.
2000 being equal to or below 1987
levels.
The results of these currently
planned U.S. actions are illustrated by
The specific actions which will
Chart 1, which shows projected U.S.
contribute to this result include:
greenhouse gas emissions for the year
2000. The estimate is based on
Phasing out CFCs and many other
calculations made by the U.S.
ozone-depleting compounds which
Environmental Protection Agency.
are also greenhouse gases;
Putting a permanent ceiling on
sulphur dioxide emissions at sharply
reduced levels and allowing freedom
of choice in meeting the ceilings,
thereby encouraging energy
efficiency and reducing greenhouse
gas emissions. Under the recently
Projected U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions
(With Current Policy Commitments)
enacted Clean Air Act Amend-
Based on IPCC CO2 Baseline Estimate
ments, utilities were given the
2500
flexibility to make reductions by any
CFCs
means-a powerful incentive for
2000
N20
energy saving measures;
Reducing, under the Clean Air Act,
air pollutants which are either
organic compounds, carbon
Millions of metric tonnes carbon equivalents
CO
1500
NOx
greenhouse gases themselves or
VOCs
greenhouse gas precursors (volatile
1000
CH4
monoxide and nitrogen oxides);
500
CO2
Initiating a program to plant a
billion trees a year and to make other
0
forest improvements, thereby
1987
2000
enhancing sinks;
Implementing a number of programs
From EPA, "The Cost of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the United
aimed directly at speeding the
States", Presentation by Alex Cristofaro, Director, Air and Energy Policy
Division, December 4. 1990
adoption of energy efficient tech-
CHART I
nologies and practices in homes and
businesses; and,
Page 2
The actions which are currently included in the
U.S. Climate Change Strategy will result in U.S.
greenhouse gas emissions in the year 2000 being equal
to or below the 1987 levels.
Alternative Model For
Projected U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions
(With Current Policy Commitments)
Based on Jorgenson/Wilcoxen (1990) Model
2500
CFCs
2000
N20
Millions of metric tonnes carbon equivalents
CO
1500
NOx
VOCs
1000
CH4
500
CO2
0
1987
2000
From EPA, "The Cost of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the United
States", Presentation by Alex Cristofaro, Director, Air and Energy Policy
Division, December 4. 1990
CHART 2
Page 3
PHASING OUT CFC's
T he United States has long taken a
BEYOND THE MONTREAL
THE U.S. IS AHEAD OF
leadership role in addressing the
PROTOCOL
SCHEDULE
problem of stratospheric ozone
depletion. In 1978, the U.S. banned
The U.S. has enacted legislative
In addition to the more restrictive
the use of CFCs as propellants in spray
provisions in the recent Clean Air Act
phase-out schedules required by the
can products. Such use was considered
amendments which will phase out
Clean Air Act, the 1989 Budget
a low value use which could be forgone
U.S. production and consumption of
Reconciliation Act enacted a tax on
given the potential damage which it
these ozone-depleting compounds
ozone-depleting chemicals during the
was believed CFCs might be causing.
more quickly than the amended
period of phase-out. The tax rates for
Most other countries continued to use
Montreal Protocol provisions. (See
each compound are its ozone-depleting
CFCs as propellants.
charts opposite)
potential (ODP) multiplied by $1.37
At the London Meeting of Parties
For each and every one of these
per pound in 1990 and 1991, $1.67 in
to the Montreal Protocol, the U.S.
compound groups and gases, the Clean
1992, $2.65 in 1993 and 1994, and an
supported a complete world-wide
Air Act reduces the allowed U.S.
increase of an additional $0.45 in each
phase-out of CFCs, halons, and certain
production and consumption between
year after 1994.
other ozone-depleting substances such
now and the final phase-out date
This tax has already helped to
as carbon tetrachloride and methyl
substantially below what the Protocol
reduce U.S. CFC production in the
chloroform. The Protocol was
permits. (For example, see Chart 3
12-month period ending June 30,
amended to achieve that objective.
regarding CFC production)
1990 to 23% below the levels
Between now and the phase-out
permitted by the Montreal Protocol
deadlines, the U.S., under the
and other U.S. law.
mandates of the Clean Air Act, must
While these actions by the United
reduce U.S. production below what is
States are justified by their benefits
permitted by the Montreal Protocol by
relating to stratospheric ozone
at least the following amounts:
depletion, they are also very highly
significant for climate change. CFCs,
halons, and carbon tetrachloride are
extremely powerful greenhouse gases,
thousands of times more powerful than
"Cumulative Near-term Reductions in
carbon dioxide.
Clean Air Act Below the
Montreal Protocol"
Major CFCs
19%
Halons
32%
Other CFCs
22%
Carbon Tetrachloride
13%
Methyl Chloroform
20%
Page 4
Phase-Out of Major CFCs
100
90
80
PROTOCOL
Percent of Base Year
70
US CAA
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
CHART 3
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
From Article 2A - 2E, Montreal Protocol text and
Title 6 of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990
CAA did not apply in 1990
Phase-Out of Carbon
Phase-Out of Halons
Tetrachloride
100
100
90
90
80
PROTOCOL
80
FEE
Percent of Base Year
70
US CAA
Percent of Base Year
70
US CAA
60
60
50
50
PROTOCOL
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
CHART 5
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
From Article 2A - 2E, Montreal Protocol text and
From Article 2A 2E, Montreal Protocol text and
Title 6 of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990
Title 6 of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990
Production estimates under the User Fee are
CHART 4
based on Treasury Department estimates
CHART 7
Phase-Out of
Methyl Chloroform
Phase-Out of Other CFCs
100
90
90
80
80
FEE
PROTOCOL
70
Percent of Base Year
70
US CAA
60
50
PROTOCOL
Percent of Base Year
60
US CAA
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
CHART 6
0
0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
From Article 2A - 2E, Montreal Protocol text and
From Article 2A - 2E, Montreal Protocol text and
Title 6 of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990
Title 6 of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990
Production estimates under the User Fee are
based on Treasury Department estimates
Page 5
THE 1990 CLEAN AIR ACT AMENDMENTS
The 1990 Clean Air Act
to adopt advanced, energy efficient
cities are expected to introduce fuels
Amendments, signed by the President
technologies that will lower overall
and vehicle technology which will
in November 1990, will achieve
emissions, including carbon dioxide.
emit fewer greenhouse gases.
substantial reductions of greenhouse
The Act is also expected to induce oil-
Beginning in model year 1994, new
gases and their chemical precursors.
burning utilities to switch to natural
tailpipe emissions standards for
The Act will reduce U.S. emissions of
gas, which produces less greenhouse gas
hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and
volatile organic compounds, carbon
emissions than does oil.
nitrogen oxides will be phased-in.
monoxide, and nitrogen oxides, which
Auto manufacturers will also have to
will curb tropospheric ozone levels, in
Smog Reductions
reduce refueling emissions. Gasoline
addition to reducing emissions of the
Substantial reductions in either
volatility will be reduced and cleaner
more familiar pollutants such as sulfur
greenhouse gases or their chemical
fuels will be required in the nine cities
dioxide. When converted into
precursors also will result from new
with the worst ozone problems and in
equivalent units of carbon emissions,
controls on stationary and mobile
41 areas during the winter months
taken together, these reductions will
sources mandated by the new Act in
when carbon monoxide standards are
amount to a 16% decrease in
order to bring cities into attainment of
exceeded. A clean fuel car pilot
greenhouse gases from these affected
national air quality standards. A wide
program in California will use
sources between the years 1987 and
variety of stationary sources of volatile
combinations of vehicle technology
2000. Moreover, the Act will result in
organic compounds will be required to
and cleaner fuels to meet tight
direct carbon dioxide reductions due to
reduce emissions by adding controls or
standards. Twenty-six areas will have
more efficient electricity generation.
by changing production processes.
to limit emissions from centrally-fueled
Newly tightened automobile emission
fleets of 10 or more vehicles.
Electric Utilities
standards will further reduce emissions
The most dramatic reductions will
of hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide,
Regulations also are being
come from electric utilities. Under the
and nitrogen oxides, and new controls
proposed under the new source
Act, utilities, which must reduce sulfur
on gasoline evaporation will greatly cut
performance standards of the Clean
dioxide (SO2) emissions by 10 million
volatile organic emissions. In addition,
Air Act to require capture of pollutant
tons below 1980 levels, are given the
gasoline itself will be reformulated to
gases which are given off by landfills.
flexibility to choose how to achieve
reduce its volatility, thus reducing
The purpose of the regulations is to
these reductions. Utilities are thus free
volatile organic emissions at the
capture air toxics and volatile organic
to choose cost-effective conservation
source. In total, these various
compounds which are the chemical
measures to achieve compliance. This
requirements of the Act will result in a
precursors of the greenhouse gas ozone.
powerful conservation stimulus should
sharp and steady drop in U.S.
Methane also will be captured and, if it
sharply reduce carbon/dioxide (CO2)
tropospheric ozone, which is a key
is not economic to be processed, it will
emissions from this sector.
greenhouse gas.
be flared. Greenhouse gas emissions in
Further, the Act requires utilities
the year 2000 will be reduced by
to reduce their nitrogen oxide
Cleaner Fuels & Cleaner Cars
approximately 40 million tons of
emissions by two million tons from
The Act will dramatically expand
carbon equivalent.
projected levels under the acid rain
the introduction of clean-burning
provisions. These provisions also
alternative fuels into the U.S.
contain strong incentives for both
transportation sector. Several large
electric utilities and industrial sources
states and the fleets of America's major
Page 6
Trends in Emissions of Carbon monoxide, 1970-1987,
120
70
100
TRANSPORT
60
TOTAL
50
80
Million Metric Tons
Million Metric Tons
40
60
30
40
20
20
10
0
0
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1987
2000
Source: U.S. EPA
CHART 9
From EPA, "National Air Pollution and Emission Estimates, 1940-1982" Feb. 1984
EPA, "National Air Quality and Emissions Trend Report, 1988" March 1990.
EPA, "National Air Quality and Emissions Trend Report, 1987" March 1989.
CHART 8
Trends in Emissions of Reactive Volatile Organic Compounds 1970-1987
30
20
18
TRANSPORT
25
16
TOTAL
14
20
Million Metric Tons
15
Million Metric Tons
12
10
8
10
6
4
5
2
0
0
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1987
2000
Source: U.S. EPA
CHART II
From same sources as Chart 8
CHART 10
Trends in Emissions of NOx
25
20
18
20
16
14
Million Metric Tons
15
TRANSPORT
Million Metric Tons
12
TOTAL
10
10
8
6
5
4
2
0
0
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1987
2000
Source: U.S. EPA
CHART 13
From same sources as Chart 8
CHART 12
Page 7
ENHANCING NATURAL SINKS
T he term "sinks" of greenhouse gases
One purpose of this initiative is to
and potentially enormously valuable
is meant to include human and natural
improve the condition of private, non-
heritage for all humankind. Temperate
activities, processes, and phenomena
industrial forest lands which now are
zone forests are being damaged by air
that remove greenhouse gases from the
often in poor condition due to low
pollution stresses and tropical forests
atmosphere or reduce their atmo-
levels of management and investment.
are being rapidly lost.
spheric lifetimes. Examples include
Improving these lands will increase
The U.S. believes that the forest
forests, soils and oceans. The IPCC
benefits from soil protection, wildlife,
convention should emphasize market-
recognized the importance of sinks in a
wood products, and recreation.
based mechanisms and flexibility to
report of its Response Strategies Work
This initiative also will have
achieve sound, sustainable forest use,
Group (RSWG): The RSWG
climate change benefits through the
to improve the health and vigor of
reviewed potential measures for
carbon which growing trees (sinks)
forests, to encourage reforestation, and
mitigating climate change. These
remove from the air and store both as
to increase the value of forests as
measures include those which limit
plant tissue and in the soil. The
sources of income and jobs. In
emissions from greenhouse gas sources
estimates of carbon removed from the
addition, increasing the productivity of
(such as energy production and use),
atmosphere by the trees to be planted
activities using the land base can
those which increase the use of natural
under the initiative are 9 million
minimize deforestation.
sinks (such as immature forests and
metric tons of carbon annually by the
Areas suggested for international
other biomass) for sequestering
year 2000, growing to 50 million tons
cooperation and joint action include:
greenhouse gases, as well as those
per year by 2010. (See Chart 15)
reforestation and rehabilitation;
measures aimed at protecting reservoirs
research and monitoring; education,
such as existing forests."
training, and technical assistance;
Global Forest Convention
reform of the Tropical Forestry Action
Reforestation
Plan; reduction of air pollution;
The President proposed at the
bilateral and multilateral assistance;
The President has included in
Summit of Industrialized Nations in
debt-for-nature swaps; and removal of
both his FY 1991 and FY 1992 Budgets
July 1990 at Houston to begin
harmful subsidies.
a major, multiyear reforestation
negotiations as expeditiously as
proposal to plant one billion trees per
possible on a global convention on
year on 1.5 million acres and to
forests, aiming for completion and
improve forest management practices.
signing by 1992.
This initiative will encompass cities
The world's forests absorb carbon
and towns across America, as well as
dioxide as well as provide many
rural, private, non-industrial forest
benefits in the form of timber and fiber,
lands. It comes in addition to
soil and water protection, biodiversity,
reforestation which Federal agencies
wildlife habitat, recreation and other
and private companies normally
valuable outputs. They provide the
perform on lands under their
habitat for some 80% of the planet's
jurisdiction.
remaining unknown and unspecified
gene pool-a completely irreplaceable
Page 8
Reductions in Carbon Dioxide Emissions
From Tree Planting Initiative
50
45
40
35
Million metric tonnes C
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
CHART 15
2000
2010
From EPA, "The Cost of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the
United States", Presentation by Alex Cristofaro, Director, Air and Energy
Policy Division, December 4, 1990
To put the power of trees as "sinks"
into perspective, consider the
example of an acre of improved
Tree Planting Initiative
Example Carbon Sequestration by Age of Stand (Cutover)
stock of southern pine planted on a
6000
high quality site in the southeastern
U.S. In the 15th year after
5000
planting these trees would take up
4000
between 5700 and 6200 pounds of
Pounds of Carbon/Acre/Year
carbon per acre. While the amount
3000
taken up declines thereafter as the
2000
trees mature, additional carbon
continues to be taken up.
1000
(See Chart 16)
0
CHART 16
-1000
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Source: U.S. Forest Service
Page 9
ENERGY INITIATIVES: Efficiency
The Administration is currently developing and will announce shortly a National Energy Strategy that will further
contribute to the greenhouse gas emissions reductions cited here. Certain National Energy Strategy initiatives have been
included in some of the calculations in this document.
The U.S. strategy for action
Level Playing Field Between
Encourage use of energy efficient
Electricity Supply and Demand
building standards.
includes a number of other energy
Reduction.
efficiency measures beyond those in
Both the U.S. and the private
In some cases utilities can meet
the Clean Air Act.
sector have developed standards that
demands for energy services without
would achieve 20-25% energy savings
any additional greenhouse gas
in buildings. They could save $5
More efficient new appliance
emissions by investing in energy
standards.
billion over 20 years from the new
efficiency rather than by increasing
buildings built in a single year.
Large appliances account for over
electricity supply. Utilities in only 15
The U.S. will promote voluntary
two thirds of home energy usage,
states are now fully able to recover
use of these standards through training
excluding space heating. In the past
costs from such investments. Absent
programs, design manuals and
three years the U.S. has imposed
such efficiency measures, new capacity
computer-aided design systems. It will
energy efficiency standards on many of
requirements by the year 2000 are
the most energy-intensive appliances,
encourage State and local governments
projected at more than 100,000 MW.
including refrigerator/freezers, clothes
to use the standards in their building
The U.S. will work with the States
codes. These actions to encourage
washers, dryers, and dishwashers.
These standards should achieve annual
to identify regulatory barriers that
adoption of the most energy efficient
discourage utility investment in cost
modern technology in residential and
energy savings of 7-8% relative to
effective energy efficiency. Utility
commercial building will reduce
projected use by the year 2000, and 14-
planning techniques will be developed
greenhouse gas emissions in 2000 by
15% relative to projected use by the
to consider all alternatives and their
8.2 million metric tons of carbon
year 2010.
costs. The U.S. will provide training,
equivalent.
The imposition of appliance
information dissemination, and other
Use of the modern standard in
standards has already resulted in a
types of technology transfer activities.
public housing assistance programs will
reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.
These actions will reduce greenhouse
reduce greenhouse gas emissions by
As older appliances are replaced with
gas emissions in the year 2000 by 9
800,000 metric tons carbon equivalent
new, environmentally friendly models,
million metric tons carbon equivalent.
in 2000.
the greenhouse gas reductions will
increase dramatically. By the year
2000, the U.S. anticipates an annual
reduction of 4.4 million tons of carbon
equivalent from projected greenhouse
gas emission due to these standards;
the annual reduction will increase to
4.9 million tons of carbon equivalent
in 2010.
Page 10
Expand national energy audit
More efficient lighting in federal
capabilities and use.
facilities.
Industry, with some 350,000
Twenty-five percent of federal
separate establishments, uses 24.7
agency energy use is for lighting of
quads of energy annually. Many
facilities. However, lack of adequate
options exist for low-cost quick payoff
flexibility for facility managers and
energy saving investments, but smaller
restrictive procurement practices have
firms often lack the information,
slowed adoption of efficient new
expertise, and specialized resources to
technologies.
do energy audits of their plants.
The U.S. will identify energy
The U.S. will increase its program
savings options in Federal facilities.
to train engineers in energy audit and
Project plans, procurement methods,
diagnostic methods from the current
and financing options will be
13 engineering schools to 40
developed to overcome the barriers to
nationwide in the year 2000. This will
improve lighting efficiency. This will
reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the
reduce greenhouse gases in the year
year 2000 by 6 million metric tons
2000 by 1.4 million metric tons carbon
carbon equivalent.
equivalent.
U.S. Savings in Emissions From Initiatives in
Energy Efficiency and Renewables.
70
Federal Building Lighting
60
Appliance Standards
Selected NES Initiatives
50
Million Metric Tons Carbon Equivalent
Energy Analysis & Diagnostic
Centers
40
Interim Building Standards
Least Cost Utility Planning
30
20
10
From EPA, "The Cost of Reducing
Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the
United States", Presentation by Alex
CHART 17
0
Cristofaro, Director, Air and Energy
Policy Division, December 4, 1990
2000
2010
Page 11
ENERGY INITIATIVES: Renewables and Non-fossil Fuels
Accelerate the transfer of photovoltaic
nuclear energy plants reduce overall
conditions that would be extremely
technology to U.S. commercial
U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide by
serious for present-day reactors;
production:
nine percent. Worldwide, nuclear
Reforming the nuclear licensing
Recent laboratory research has
energy reduces these emissions by more
process through consolidation of the
achieved photovoltaic efficiencies of
than seven percent.
redundant aspects of the
over 30%. With such efficiencies and
A comprehensive strategy for
construction and operating licensing
improved manufacturing, today's $4-5
nuclear energy is being developed as a
processes, without compromising
prices per peak watt could be cut in
part of the National Energy Strategy
nuclear safety concerns; and,
half.
and is supported in the President's
Developing a long-term solution to
The U.S. will start an intensive
Fiscal Year 1992 budget. This strategy
the nuclear waste problem by
effort with industry to understand
includes:
developing a permanent repository,
potential improvements in
and possibly an interim retrievable
photovoltaic processes. Industry joint
Developing advanced light water
storage facility.
ventures to provide practical solutions
reactors that will incorporate passive
DOE is funding programs that are
and maximize transfer of results will be
safety features in a standardized
supporting growth in nuclear energy
encouraged. The U.S. will also provide
(modular) design. This will reduce
capacity and the life extension of many
cost-shared technical assistance to
the time needed to license new
currently operating plants. According
adapt manufacturing improvement
plants, while assuring that safety
to analysis done for the National
techniques to specific processes. By
issues are adequately addressed. The
Energy Strategy, support from DOE is
the year 2000, greenhouse gas emission
U.S. is currently supporting first-of-a-
expected to result in adding new
reductions will begin to phase in at
kind engineering work that will assist
nuclear capacity by 2000, which would
500,000 metric tons of carbon
companies in their efforts to have the
result in further reductions in
equivalent.
Nuclear Regulatory Commission
greenhouse gas emissions.
certify the safety of standardized
Expand nuclear energy capacity:
designs;
Increase transportation use of
As the Nation enters the 1990s,
Conducting research and
alternative fuels.
nuclear power is the second largest
development on advanced reactor
Use of oxygenated fuels, such as
source of U.S. electricity, providing
concepts with safety features that go
ethanol, can reduce urban smog levels
almost 20 percent of America's
beyond even the standardized designs
and emissions of CO2 and carbon
electricity needs, and nuclear power
("to be intrinsically safe") currently
monoxide.
causes no greenhouse gases.
before the Nuclear Regulatory
U.S. research has demonstrated
Because of the availability of
Commission. High temperature gas
the technical feasibility of the
nuclear power the nation is able to
cooled reactors use specially coated
processes to produce ethanol from non-
avoid the use of large amounts of fossil
fuel elements that will not fail even
food domestic resources such as wood
fuels. In terms of the displacement of
under the high temperatures that
or herbaceous crops.
fossil fuels, nuclear power can be
could occur in an accident. Liquid
The U.S. will expand current
thought of as reducing utility
metal reactors use liquid sodium as
research programs in alternative fuels
emissions of carbon dioxide-a major
the heat exchange medium.
to include cost-shared joint ventures
greenhouse gas-by 20 percent, or
Researchers have demonstrated that
aimed at reducing the cost of ethanol
approximately 128 million tons,
these new reactor types can shut
from non-food resources. This effort
annually in the U.S. In effect, then,
themselves down safely under
will be coordinated with industry
vehicle and engine development
Page 12
programs.
Conservation and Renewable R&D
The U.S. is funding a large research
materials, improved terminal
Total FY 1992 funding for research
and development program for
operations, and improved air traffic
in new energy technologies is over
conservation and renewable energy. In
control.
$900 million.
Fiscal Year 1992, this effort is increased
An initiative to address the
by 18 percent to a level of $495
problem of combustion emissions in
million, which represents an increase
waste-to-energy plants is being started.
of over 50% since 1989.
Further, alternative-fuel vehicle
In the long run, an adequate
demonstration and a scale-up of a
response to climate change will involve
wood-to-ethanol process are being
the use of new technologies that
initiated.
conserve energy or that provide energy
Industrial energy efficiency R&D
without causing greenhouse gas
includes funding for more efficient
emissions. These technologies will be
steel, aluminum, and paper processes.
needed in all of the economy's sectors.
A scale-up and test of the use of
The Administration is proposing
concentrated solar energy to detoxify
to initiate, in the fiscal year 1992
liquid wastes is also planned.
budget, a new joint auto industry-
Building energy efficiency research
government consortium to develop a
focuses on the interactions of energy
battery for electric vehicles. Improved
systems, and the efficient use of
batteries could extend vehicle range to
advanced window technologies and
120 to 200 miles. Fuel-cell-powered
building materials to control light and
electric vehicles offer the potential to
heat entering a building.
achieve up to 50 percent efficiencies.
R&D for energy efficiency in
transportation includes work on high
temperature internal combustion
engines, gas turbine engines, fuel cells
and a new initiative for electric
vehicles. Air transportation energy
efficiency work includes research in
hybrid laminar flow, composite
Page 13
TRENDS: CO2 Emissions
U
nited States emissions in 1988 were
only 2.7% above the 1973 level,
Growth in CO2 Emissions and U.S. GDP
despite the fact that real U.S. Gross
4500
Domestic Product (GDP), in 1985
4000
dollars, grew by 48 percent over that
GDP
period.
3500
$
3000
Million metric
A key unanswered question about
tons carbon
2500
responding to the climate change issue
GDP
is how to achieve economic growth in
2000
$
U.S. GDP
developing countries and economic
(billions of
1500
dollars)
reform in formerly centrally-planned
countries without massive increases in
1000
CO2
CO2
greenhouse gas emissions.
500
CHART 19
0
It is important to remember that
anthropogenic emissions of CO2
1973
1988
contribute about 4% of the total global
Source DOE Trends '90; OECD National Accounts, 1960-1988, (Paris 1990)
GDP deflators 1982=100 Source 1990 Economic Report
CO2 flux.
Charts 21 and 22 compare the recent
U.S. emissions trend with countries
which contain most of the world's
Emissions of CO2 Per Unit of GDP, 1988
population. Those in Chart 21 have
trends of rapidly growing CO2
emissions, and are likely to have
350
substantial emissions growth in the
300
coming decades.
Metric Tons C/GDP (Millions 1985 $)
250
200
150
100
50
0
CANADA
UK
US
W. GERM.
ITALY
JAPAN
FRANCE
CHART 20
Emissions from DOE, "Trends '90, A Compendium of Data on Global
Change", August 1990.
GDP from OECD, "National Accounts 1960-1988", (Paris 1990)
Page 14
Chart 21 compares the U.S. trend to
Trends in Carbon Dioxide Emissions
countries which have experienced
U.S. and High Emissions Growth Countries
substantial growth in emissions.
300
US
250
USSR
200
CHINA
1973 = 100
150
INDIA
100
MEXICO
50
R. KOREA
CHART21
0
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1685
1986
1987
1988
Calculated from data in DOE, "Trends '90, A Compendium of Data on Global
Change", August 1990
Trends in Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Chart 22 compares the U.S. trend to
U.S. and G-7 Countries
industrial countries which have
120
experienced moderate growth or
US
decline in emissions.
100
JAPAN
80
GERMANY
1973 = 100
60
UK
40
CANADA
20
FRANCE
ITALY
0
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1685
1986
1987
1988
CHART 22
Calculated from data in DOE, "Trends '90, A Compendium of Data on Global
Change", August 1990
Page 15
TRENDS: Energy Intensity
Chart 23 compares United States
energy consumption per unit of gross
Energy Consumption per Unit of GDP
domestic product (GDP) with Canada,
35
Japan, France, Italy, West Germany
US
and the United Kingdom-the other
30
G-7 countries.
CANADA
1000 BTUs/GDP (1985 U. S. $)
25
As shown in Chart 23, the United
JAPAN
20
States has improved its energy
FRANCE
use/GDP ratio since 1970, averaging
15
an annual improvement of 2 percent
10
ITALY
per year. In 1988 the U.S. used only
5
W GERM
70.9 % as much energy per unit of
GDP as it used in 1970.
0
UK
The United States' rate of
------------------
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
improvement in the industrial energy
use/gross product orginating (GPO)
Total Consumption in Quads from International and Contingency
CHART 23
Information Division, Statistics Branch, Energy Information Administration
ratio has been greater than most other
GDP in 1985 $ from "National Accounts 1960-1988", OECD (Paris 1990)
G-7 countries, averaging close to 3
percent per year since 1977 (Chart 24).
Since the early 1970s, the United
States has improved its heating
efficiency on an energy used per square
foot per degree day basis. The U.S.
used in 1987 only 68.4% of the energy
Savings in Energy per GPO ('77-'86)
used per square foot in 1972. Today,
U.S. energy use in dwellings per square
foot per degree day is much lower than
45
most other G-7 countries.
40
35
% of Savings 1977-1986
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
US
CANADA
JAPAN
FRANCE
ITALY
W. GERM.
UK
CHART 24
From same source as Chart 23
Page 16
Energy consumption per unit GDP
in the U.S. is comparable to other
G-7 countries.
Energy per GDP 1988
30
25
1000 BTUs/GDP (1985 U.S. $)
20
15
10
5
0
CHART 25
US
CANADA
JAPAN
FRANCE
ITALY
UK
W. GERM.
From Chart 23 data
Page 17
TRENDS: Transportation
Population density in the United
States is 5 to 10 times less than in
Population Density per Square Mile, 1988
many of the other G-7 countries
(Chart 26). With such a low density,
900
the U.S. spatial spread between work
800
and home naturally increases
700
transportation use per capita.
across a wide continent requires
/ Square Mile
600
Distribution of economic activities
500
400
substantial energy consumption for
moving people and freight long
300
distances. Transportation energy
200
consumption per capita is highest in
100
the United States and Canada and
0
CHART 26
substantially lower in the G-7
US
countries with high population
CANADA
JAPAN
FRANCE
ITALY
densities.
W. GERM.
UK
New car fuel efficiencies in the
Population from OECD, "National Accounts 1960-1988" Vol 1 (Paris, 1990)
United States are now roughly even
Area from Pharos Books "The World Almanac and Book of Facts 1990",
(New York, 1989)
with those of most of the other G-7
countries (Chart 27), despite much
more demanding U.S. emissions and
auto safety standards. The U.S. 1987
New Car Fuel Efficiency
miles per gallon ratio was 28.3, within
40
a relatively narrow range from Japan at
US
35
27.7 to the United Kingdom at 31.8.
The U.S. from 1973 to 1987 increased
30
CANADA
its new car fuel economy by almost 100
25
JAPAN
percent (Chart 29).
Miles/Gallon
20
FRANCE
15
ITALY
10
W GERM
5
0
UK
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
CHART 27
From OECD, "Energy Conservation in IEA Countries" (Paris 1987); IEA
country submissions; and Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (French amounts)
Conversion factors: 3.785 liters per gallon, 1.609 kilometers per mile.
Page 18
Pollution Expenditures
United States' declines in emissions
U.S. Pollution Control Expenditures
of volatile organic compounds, carbon
90000
monoxide, CFCs, and, to some degree,
80000
the stabilization of carbon dioxide
70000
emissions over the period from the
60000
early 1970's to the present can be
Millions of 1986 Dollars
attributed, in part, to U.S. investment
50000
to protect and to clean up the
40000
environment. U.S. spending for all
30000
pollution control purposes over the
20000
period is shown in Chart 29. It has
10000
grown by 100 percent from 1972 to
0
1972
1973
1974
1975
1977
1978
1979
1980
1982
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
CHART 28
1989. It is expected to continue
1976
1981
1983
growing. Enactment of the Clean Air
From EPA, "Environmental Investments: the Cost of a Clean
Act Amendments of 1990 alone is
Environment", July 6, 1990 draft.
estimated to increase U.S. pollution
control expenditures by an additional
$25 billion a year when fully
implemented.
U.S. pollution control spending
Improvement in New Car Fuel
has historically been larger compared
Economy, 1973-1987
to the country's Gross Domestic
Product than spending by other
countries for which data is available.
100
90
80
Percent increase in Miles per Gallon
70
60
Ж
50
40
30
20
10
0
CHART 29
ITALY
JAPAN
W. GERM.
UK
US
Source: same as chart 27.
Page 19
invest almost $1.2 billion in this
Program, which virtually doubles the
U.S. commitment to the research
CLIMATE PROCESSES
program of the US/GCRP since it was
initiated in FY 1990 (see chart below).
OZONE DEPLETING GASES
O3
SO2 NOx
H2O
CO2 CH4 N2O
Funding for Global
Change Research Focused
FOSSIL-FUEL
Programs
CONSUMPTION
RESPIRATION
1200
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPIRATION
DECOMPOSITION
ACTIVITIES
N2
CARBON,
1000
NITROGEN,
SULFUR,
AGRICULTURAL
800
PHOSPHORUS,
ACTIVITIES
Millions of Dollars
IN PLANTS &
ANIMALS
600
400
UREA
RUNOFF
TOXIC
200
METALS
NITRATES,
NITRATE, DEAD
0
SULFATES,
ORGANIC MATTER
NITROGEN
PHOSPHATES
AND DECOMPOSERS
1989
1990
1991
1992
FIXING
BACTERIA
Source: U.S. Office of Management & Budget
PHOSPHATES
GOAL: To establish the scientific basis for National and International policy making
relating to natural and human-induced changes in the global Earth system.
particularly the climate aspects. This is
Specifically, the USGCRP research
ecological dynamics which are
to be complemented by a program of
will focus on understanding the
impacted by and respond to climate
economics research to better
processes affecting:
change.
understand the economic factors and
changing concentrations of greenhouse
2. Enhance scientific and
consequences of global change and
gases which are implicated in future
economic research to support the
various mitigation and adaptation
global warming predictions;
development and implementation of a
strategies. It is the intent of the
clouds and radiative balance which
comprehensive approach to greenhouse
US/GCRP to provide leaders of
strongly influence the magnitude of
gas emissions reductions, specifically a
government with the best possible
climate change at global and regional
focus on:
scientific and economic information as
scales;
sources and sinks of greenhouse gases;
inputs to environmental policy
oceans which influence the timing
development of a quantitative index of
decisions.
and patterns of climate change;
radiative forcing; and
The highest priorities for the
land-surface hydrology which affects
development and use of economic
US/GCRP in FY 1992 are to:
regional climate change and water
models to generate predictions of future
1.
Enhance scientific research
availability;
scenarios that cover multiple
efforts that seek to reduce the scientific
polar ice sheets which affect
greenhouse gases and multiple
uncertainties identified during the IPCC
predictions of global sea level
economic sectors.
scientific and impact assessments.
changes; and
The ultimate goals of the
US/GCRP are to (1) Obtain a
predictive understanding of the
INTEGRATING THEMES FOR RESEARCH
interactive physical, chemical,
biological, geological, and social
processes that regulate natural and
human-induced changes in the total
Climate
Earth system and, (2) Provide a strong
scientific and economic basis for
national and international
Global
policy-making related to changes in
H2O &
the global environment and their
Energy
regional impacts.
Cycles
OBJECTIVES
Global
Establish an integrated, comprehensive long-
Carbon
term program of documenting the Earth
Cycles
system on a global scale.
Conduct a program of focused studies to
improve our understanding of the physical,
HYTO-
ZOO-
geological, chemical, biological, and social
ANKTON
PLANKTON
Ecological
processes that influence Earth system
processes and trends on global and regional
NUTRIENT
System &
scales.
RECYCLING
Dynamics
Develop integrated conceptual and
predictive Earth system models.
OCEAN SEDIMENTS
LEADERSHIP AND ACTION
President Bush has established the
The actions which are currently
comprehensive strategy for action and
included in the U.S. Climate Change
leadership outlined on the following
Strategy will result in U.S. greenhouse
pages. This strategy flows from his
gas emissions in the year 2000 being
commitment to responsible
equal to or below the 1987 level. In
stewardship of our planet, which
addition, the U.S. has essentially
includes the promotion of economic
stabilized its emissions of carbon
growth and sound environmental
dioxide (CO2) over the last 15 years
policies. It is built upon a series of
despite a growth in economic output of
actions which will have broad ranging
about 50 percent. During this same
benefits-from curbing air pollution, to
period, global carbon dioxide emissions
conserving energy, to restoring forest
have increased substantially.
lands-and which will help curb net
to develop and to accelerate the
greenhouse gas emissions.
This U.S. Strategy for Climate
adoption of economically sound,
Change includes many specific actions:
environmentally beneficial, and
The U.S. believes that any
eliminating stratospheric ozone-
energy efficient technologies.
successful global climate change
depleting compounds which are also
strategy must be:
strong greenhouse gases;
In total, the U.S. proposes to
comprehensive, incorporating all
directly controlling various
invest over 2 billion dollars in these
relevant greenhouse gases, their
greenhouse gases and their precursors
R&D efforts next year alone.
sources and sinks;
which are also air pollutants;
long term, taking into account the
reducing utility and other industrial
In August 1990, the
full range of social, economic, and
emissions in a way that strongly
Intergovermental Panel on Climate
environmental consequences of
encourages energy efficiency;
Change (IPCC) declared in its
proposed actions for this and future
increasing forest greenhouse gas
Overview: "A comprehensive strategy
generations;
sinks;
addressing all aspects of the problem
flexible, built on many diverse
encouraging energy efficiency in
and reflecting environmental,
actions (including market
such areas as buildings, appliances,
economic, and social costs and benefits
incentives) and readily adjustable as
and lighting; and
is necessary."
knowledge is improved through a
increasing the use of renewable and
The President of the United States
robust research and development
non-fossil sources of energy.
has established such a comprehensive
program; and,
strategy. The United States, today, is
integrated, designed to involve all
Integral to the U.S. Climate
working to curb emissions, promote
nations and dynamically reflect and
Change Strategy is the world's largest
economic growth, and exercise
incorporate each nation's unique
program of research and development:
leadership in meeting our shared
circumstances into the development
to increase our scientific and
responsibilities as stewards of the
of a truly global response strategy.
economic understanding of climate
planet.
change and to provide a sound
knowledge base for making major
The United States is taking
policy decisions; and,
action.
FEB
3
The Washington Post
Challenges Await Global Warming
Researchers Divided on Call for Strong Action While Many
Meeting
By William Booth
Washington Post Staff Writer
A8
Questions Remain Unanswered
Scientists and government offi-
cials from 130 countries will gather
Virginia and a skeptic of scenarios
But Bender said there is still wide
here this week to forge a world re-
that predict significant warming.
disagreement over the magnitude
sponse to a threat that some regard
The reluctance of most research-
of the warming. It is this uncertain-
as a potential nightmare and others
ers to call for stringent controls of
ity, in part, that keeps the Bush ad-
consider a mere inconvenience.
carbon dioxide stems from the fact
ministration from commiting to re-
Despite attempts at consensus,
that the greenhouse debate is still
ductions in carbon dioxide. As one
researchers are still deeply divided
very much alive. Policy-makers and
adminstration official who has ne-
over global warming and its poten-
the public are left to sort through
gotiated over climate change put it:
tial impact and say it could be a dec-
the bewildering cross talk that oc-
"If the temperature goes up 1 de-
ade before they have the answers to
curs when scientific cultures and
gree, who cares? If it goes up 6 de-
such critical questions as whether
personalities collide.
grees, everybody cares."
rising temperatures will cause the
"There is a selective use of facts.
A U.N.-sponsored group of 300
seas to rise.
Nobody tells an untruth. But no-
scientists concluded last year that
Yet this week's conference re-
body tells the whole truth, either,"
temperatures will probably rise 2
flects the fact that many experts
said S. Fred Singer, an atmospheric
degrees by 2025 and 6 degrees by
feel some action must be taken be-
and space physicist at the Washing-
the end of the century. However,
fore anything definitive is known.
ton Institute here. "It all depends on
these predictions are based on com-
"I believe the greenhouse is com-
the ideological outlook."
puter simulations, which many sci-
ing and I believe it is going to be a
Singer said the greenhouse effect
entists say are too crude to warrant
serious problem," said Richard Al-
has been used by all sorts of inter-
great confidence.
ley of Pennsylvania State Univer-
est groups to further their agendas.
Scientists are even less confident
sity, a world authority on reading
"My nuclear friends are happy to
that they understand what a tem-
past climates in ancient ice. "Yet by
the time we can with confidence say
promote the greenhouse effect. My
perature increase will do to crops
that the greenhouse is here, it will
natural gas friends are happy to
and the natural world. Many inves-
be too late."
promote. the greenhouse effect,"
tigators believe that plants will be
Delegates will be pressed to fol-
Singer said. "A lot of scientists pro-
more vigorous in a carbon-dioxide
low the lead of European nations
mote the greenhouse effect because
rich world, but there is the fear that
that have already pledged to reduce
of increased funding."
with rising temperatures, soil mois-
emissions of carbon dioxide, a gas
"The public is rightly confused,"
ture will decrease.
said Stephen Schneider, a climatol-
produced by burning fossil fuels and
in "Humanity is hurtling toward a
ogist at the National Center for At-
the one most responsible for com-
precipice," according to Michael
mospheric Research in Colorado.
puter-generated scenarios predict-
Oppenheimer, a senior scientist at
"The good thing about science is
ing a worldwide warming of 6 de-
the Environemntal Defense Fund. If
that scientists argue. But the public
grees by the end of the next cen-
we fail to reduce emissions, Oppen-
doesn't understand that. They think
tury.
heimer and a colleague believe we
that because scientists argue, they
The Bush administration has re-
"are likely to alter the Earth's cli-
don't know what they're talking
sisted such calls in the past and in-
mate so rapidly and so thoroughly
about."
sisted that more research is needed
as to destroy much of the natural
Schneider maintains that scien-
before the United States under-
world and turn the world that we
tists generally agree on the basics
takes the kind of disruptive changes
call civilization upside down."
of global warming. Indeed, in al-
that cutting carbon dioxide emis-
Yet many others are not quite so
sions would involve.
most two dozen interviews with
hyperbolic.
While scientists generally support
scientists who study all aspects of
E "I just don't feel in my gut like it's
attempts to increase energy efficien-
climate change, there was general
-a catastrophic issue," said James
cy and to move away from fossil fuels
agreement that the accumulation of
-Angell, a climatologist with the Na-
and toward renewable energy, many
carbon dioxide and other green-
Ctional Oceanic and Atmospheric Ad-
of them also shy away from recom-
house gases in the atmosphere will
mendations that would cost large
probably warm the planet.
sums or disrupt the economy.
"Most of my colleagues feel that
"There are tremendous uncer-
there will be some warming," said
tainties that led me to say that tre-
Michael Bender, a climatologist at
mendous costs are unwarranted at
the University of Rhode Island.
present," said Patrick Michaels, a
CONTINUED
climatologist at the University of
CONTINUED
The Washington Post
FEB
3 199.
ministration who has been tracking
increased temperatures will cause a
worldwide temperatures with
slight rise in sea levels because of
weather balloons. "My personal
the way oceans expand when heat-
feeling is that we'll be able to deal
ed. But researchers are unsure
with it."
whether even the predicted tem-
"Yes, I think some warming will
perature increase will cause the
occur," said Peter Brewer of the
polar icecaps to melt.
Monterey Bay Aquarium Research
"I am supposed to be an expert
Institute, a leader of an internation-
on what the greenhouse effect will
al project to study the response of
do to ice sheets and sea level," said
marine algae to climate change.
Alley. "But I am only confident in
"But it's not a catastrophe. It's a
one thing. I am confident that we
trend we have to deal with. It's ir-
cannot make a reliable prediction at
reversible. But it will probably be
this time about sea-level rise."
subtle and spread out over dec-
Scientists also are trying to un-
ades."
derstand if rising temperatures will
The Earth's climate is so dynam-
lead to increased cloudiness, which
ic-and the product of such a com-
could shield the planet from incom-
plex interplay of currents and
ing sunlight and perhaps act to mit-
clouds, polar ice and marine
igate warming. Some researchers,
plants-that to simulate it on a
however, have speculated that cer-
computer and predict what the fu-
tain types of clouds may increase
ture will bring is a daunting task.
warming by trapping more heat.
Moreover, there is still tremen-
In a perverse twist, researchers
dous uncertainty about "wild cards"
also suspect that the main ingredi-
in the climate, which could dampen
ent in acid rain-sulfur dioxide-
or accelerate warming.
might act to seed clouds in the at-
There is some agreement that
mosphere and so cool the planet.
THE GREAT GREENHOUSE DEBATE
WHAT'S KNOWN
CO2 Concentration (PPM)
355
+1
350
CO2 and Greenhouse Gasses
345
340
335
°F
330
325
320
315
-1
310
1958
1968
1978
1988
1860
1900
1940
1980
Carbon dioxide, the most potent
Global temperatures appear to
A natural greenhouse effect
greenhouse gas, is rapidly
have increased on average 1
keeps the Earth warmer than it
accumulating in the atmosphere
degree Fahrenheit in the last 130
otherwise would be. Computer
due to human activities, such as
years. It is uncertain whether the
simulations predict that the
burning fossil fuels and forests.
modest warming is due to human
accumulating carbon dioxide will
activies or natural phenomena.
increase global temperature 2
degrees by 2025 and 6 degrees
by 2100.
WHAT'S TO LEARN
Will the ice sheets of
What will be the
Will cloud cover
The Earth's climate is
Greenland or Antarctica
ecological effects? Plants
increase? Increased
a complex interplay of
melt, causing a large rise
grow more vigorously in a
cloudiness could mitigate
ocean currents, soil
in sea level? Predictions
carbon dioxide rich
the greenhouse effect.
microbes, marine algae,
are that sea level will rise
atmosphere, but rising
clouds and gases, which
about 8 inches by 2030.
temperatures might also
both cool and warm the
cause a decrease soil
planet. Unknown
moisture and change in
feedbacks could worsen
rainfall patterns.
or dampen the predicted
warming.
"
FEB
3 1991
The Washington Post
Jessica Mathews
A Cure for Nuclear Neurosis
C7
Let us be optimistic for a moment and assume
nia was being run by operators who slept and played
that the president follows through on his State of
video games while on duty, apparently with manage-
the Union pledge to propose a comprehensive
ment's knowledge. Until such incidents are only dim
national energy strategy. In the much-needed
memories, the industry need look no further for the
debate that will follow, the hottest and most
source of its woes. As Peter Bradford, chairman of
perplexing charges and counter-charges will be
New York's Public Service Commission, bluntly puts
aimed at nuclear power.
it, "The lesson that Wall Street learned from Three
One side will say that efficiency and conservation
Mile Island was that a group of federally licensed
can only go so far and that the only sure answer to
operators-not appreciably better or worse than
pollution, greenhouse warming and oil import de-
any other crew-could convert a $2 billion asset
pendence is nuclear energy. The other side will
into a $1 billion cleanup job in about 90 minutes."
assert that nuclear is the highest cost option among
Government bears a heavy responsibility for the
many and that safety, proliferation, waste disposal
industry's poor record. Victor Gilinsky, a former
and other considerations make nuclear power a last
federal regulator, points out that the first medium-
resort at best. One thing is certain, the vehemence
sized commercial reactor was licensed in 1964.
of the arguments will bear no relation to the
Before it had operated even a single day, 38 larger
judgment the marketplace has rendered.
reactors had been licensed. Most of today's 115
The last time a nuclear reactor was ordered that
reactors were licensed and built at the same time,
was not later canceled, Spiro Agnew was vice
leaving no opportunity to learn from others' mis-
president, the Vietnam War was still being fought
takes. Worse, the great majority of nuclear utilities
and Three Mile Island was six years in the future. It
operate just one or two plants, which means they
was 1973. Yet no subject so reliably brings discus-
also have had no opportunity to learn from their
sions of energy policy to a screeching halt.
own experience. It is no coincidence, says Gilinsky,
As hard-core proponents see it, the nuclear
that the most notorious problem plants-Diablo
industry has been the victim of a conspiracy they
Canyon, Shoreham, Seabrook, Zimmer and oth-
variously attribute to the president, to Congress,
ers-were each their respective utility's first com-
to a biased elite that has misled an otherwise
mercial nuclear project.
pro-nuclear public or to a strain of "irrationality"
The solution is to consolidate the more than
that infects public opinion. The other side sees a
uniquely favored technology that was allowed to
50 nuclear utilities, leaving fewer and better
sidestep political checks and balances through
management teams each in charge of a sizable
number of plants. That process could also ease
secrecy and a special regulatory arrangement
and grew into a sloppy industry incapable of ever
safety concerns by removing some of the chron-
managing a demanding technology.
ically poor performers, which would in turn
A few battle-scarred souls believe there is a
lighten the regulatory burden for all.
middle ground. In their view, nuclear power may
Even after all this has been achieved—a per-
be an important element of the nation's long-term
fect operating record, improved management,
energy mix if it can regain public trust and lower
growing public confidence, more efficient regula-
its costs. Changes in federal policy, such as
tion, a functioning waste disposal system and an
streamlining the licensing process and requiring a
improved reactor design-a question mark will
standardized reactor design, are worthwhile but
remain. Will nuclear power be more or less costly
will contribute less than the industry hopes to
than other means of supplying electricity, includ-
either goal. Regaining trust will be achingly slow.
ing efficiency improvements? No one knows.
Today it is one of the most expensive options.
Attempts to force the pace, for example by exclud-
Reforms should lower costs, and pollution sur-
ing public intervenors or rushing to choose a new
charges for fossil-fired plants will help nuclear
reactor design, are guaranteed to backfire. There
compete, but the ultimate outcome is impossible
must also be a solution to waste disposal. Most
to predict. It will be about a decade before
sensibly, that would entail dropping the ludicrously
reactor construction resumes, if it does. There is
inflated official goal of assuring the wastes' safety
time to turn down the heat. If the industry can
for 10,000 years in favor of an achievable target,
end its fruitless hunt for villains and its long habit
but doing so may be politically impossible.
of promising more than it can deliver, and if
The key to a saner future life with nuclear energy
nuclear opponents can relax long enough to allow
is understanding what went wrong. From the begin-
regulatory changes that will improve perfor-
ning, neither government nor industry took this
mance, a way might yet be found to come to
technology seriously enough. Some in the industry
terms with this promising, troubled technology.
still don't. They put too much effort into buying poll
The writer, vice president of World Resources
after phony poll showing overwhelming public sup-
port for nuclear energy and too little into the
Institute, writes this column independently for
The Post.
demanding task of technical and managerial reform.
Despite efforts to tighten up after Three Mile
Island, the industry is still plagued by utilities that
simply shouldn't be in the nuclear business. Not long
ago regulators discovered that a plant in Pennsylva-
The Washington Post
FEE
JANE BRYANT QUINN
As War Economy Unfolds,
Rates and Oil Remain Key
H3
T
wo pieces of good economic news
Oil prices may still jump around, but
emerged from the Persian Gulf
John Lichtblau, chairman of the
If you're living on income from your
War's opening days: The world
Petroleum Industry Research
savings, consider switching some of your
most likely will continue to have an
Foundation, thinks they won't rise by
money out of floating-rate,
adequate supply of oil, and interest rates
much. The entire world stocked up on
money-market mutual funds or bank
are lower now than they were a couple of
crude for fear that the Saudi fields would
accounts. The yield on short-term
weeks ago.
close. When they didn't, the oversupply
investments is likely to shrink. An
This means lower inflation, easier
spilled into the market, driving
intermediate-term Treasury or
credit and some debt relief. The
prices-in just one day-down to $21
certificate of deposit, with a maturity of
recession is quite likely closer to its end
from $32 a barrel, a historic drop.
five years or so, is a better bet for
than its beginning-passing, perhaps, as
At that price, gasoline at the pump
protecting your income.
early as spring and no later than
As for U.S. stocks, it's impossible to
eventually should fall by 20 cents a
summer. "Worst-case scenarios don't
know whether a new bull market has
gallon, says Ben Brockwell, editor of the
make sense any more," says economist
begun. Stocks have been strong since the
Oil Price Information Service. Heating oil
David Rolley of the economic forecasting
day that the shooting started, reflecting
could drop by 10 cents a gallon almost
firm DRI/McGraw-Hill Inc. in Lexington,
the general expectation that lower oil
Mass.
immediately and 45 cents by next
prices and interest rates will soon show
September.
This good cheer, however, assumes
up in higher corporate profits. Doubters,
Slower inflation and easier money
that the hot war subsides within a very
however, point to the lingering recession
few weeks. If Saddam Hussein has an ace
should lower interest rates even further,
as reason to think that stocks are likely
up his sleeve, or the ground troops get
to slide again.
bogged down-in sand or in a chemical
Long-term investors should disregard
storm-the pain on the home front may
It's hard to think of an
this chaff. Stick to a regular investment
be protracted, too.
In a long war, oil prices might move up
industry that can be
program of buying and holding
stock-owning mutual funds. Ten years
again. Deficit spending on war
production would telegraph more
helped by the current
from now, you'll be glad you did.
inflation ahead. The critical decline in
interest rates would come to an end.
drop in interest rates
Consumer confidence might take another
dive.
and oil prices.
Some war damage is already apparent
in the economy, as worried travelers stay
in the opinion of Jerry Jordan, chief
home, airlines and hotels lose customers
economist at First Interstate Bancorp in
and businesses put international deals on
Los Angeles. He puts the prime business
hold.
lending rate at 8.5 percent by spring,
Nevertheless, it's hard to think of an
down from 9 percent now.
industry that can't be helped by the
If he's right, that means lower costs
current drop in interest rates and oil
for businesses whose loan interest rates
prices. Economist Roger Bird, a vice
are pegged to the prime. Such a broad
president of the forecasting firm the
drop in rates should also bring out strong
WEFA Group, is especially optimistic
demand for home-mortgage money.
about the manufacturing firms that
Jordan's interest-rate forecast falls on
produce for export (heavily concentrated
the optimistic side. Even so, most
in the Midwest). Europe has been a
economists now believe that-barring a
steady buyer of American-made machine
long and expensive war financed with
tools, business electronics and other
vast amounts of deficit spending-the
capital goods. Cheaper oil supplies will
prospect of much higher rates is remote.
cushion Europe's downturn and increase
its appetite for shopping in the United
States, he says.
FEB
8
1991
The New York Times
Technology Is Found to Exist
To Cut Global Warming Gases
AM
WASHINGTON, Feb. 7 (AP) - Cur-
"Such emission reductions will be
rent technologies can sharply reduce
difficult to achieve and could be cost-
gases that scientists say would contrib-
ly," said the study, which had been re-
ute to global warming, but not without
quested by several Congressional com-
significant expense and dramatic
mittees, but it added that the reduc-
changes in how Americans use energy,
tions would require no major techno-
a Congressional study reported today.
logical breakthroughs,
The report estimated that substan-
The report said the cost was difficult
tially cutting emissions of one of the
to estimate. Energy savings would in-
gases, carbon dioxide, could eventually
crease because of conservation and
cost the economy as much as $150 bil-
fuel efficiencies, but the cost of appli-
lion a year, about what Americans now
ances, automobiles and houses, would
pay for compliance with all existing en-
most likely increase.
vironmental laws.
The report said predictions on how
The study by the Congressional Of-
much it would cost to deal with global
fice of Technology Assessment comes
warming vary widely, from saving the
as delegates from 130 nations are
economy money to costing as much as
meeting near here to work toward a
$150 billion a year to cut carbon dioxide
worldwide treaty on global warming. It
emissions alone by the year 2015.
also follows pressure from some mem-
Environmentalists have argued that
bers of Congress to commit the United
at the very least, industrial nations
States to specific goals to reduce gases
must reduce carbon dioxide emissions
that contribute to global warming,
by 20 percent to have any hopes of
something the Bush Administration
reversing the trend toward unusual
says should await more study.
warming of the earth.
There is division among scientist
The report said a substantial cut in
over the extent, and indeed the exist-
carbon dioxide emissions would re-
ence, of global warming. But many
quire energy conservation measures to
scientists believe that global tempera-
be taken by virtually all sectors of the
tures will rise because increasing
economy, including construction,
levels of carbon dioxide and other man-
manufacturing, transportation and
made gases will trap and retain heat
energy industries.
from the sun in a process similar to
Energy Taxes Could Be Needed
what happens in a greenhouse. Such a
warming trend could cause sea levels
The energy savings most likely
to rise, cause severe droughts and
would have to be brought about
storms and severely disprupt the
through a mixture of energy taxes,
earth's biological systems.
financial incentives and government
regulation, the study concluded.
Number of Gases Involved
The Congressional study did not en-
The phenomenon has been attributed
dorse any specific approach or suggest
to a number of gases, including chloro-
what kinds of energy taxes or incen-
fluorocarbons and methane. But car-
tives might be preferred. But it sug-
bon dioxide, primarily from the burn-
gested that tougher energy efficiency
ing of fossil fuels, accounts for more
standards would have to be developed
than half of the gases identified as
for commercial buildings as well as for
creating the greenhouse effect. And
homes, appliances, heating and cooling
scientists believe significant cuts in
systems, windows and other elements
carbon dioxide emissions will require
of construction.
sharp reductions in the burning of fos-
It cited the need for more energy-ef-
sil fuels, oil, coal and wood.
ficient transportation systems, includ-
The new study concluded that carbon
ing steep increases in automobile fuel
dioxide reductions of 35 percent are
economy standards, more incentives
feasible over the next 25 years in the
toward development of mass transit
United States with the adoption of
and perhaps reinstituting the 55-mile-
stringent energy-saving-policies
an-hour speed limit nationwide.
23
FEB
The Washington Times
8 1991
Regulators have plan to monitor
smokestack filth via computer
By Diana Schobel
CAPITAL NEWS SERVICE
03
BUSINESSES BRACING
FOR POLLUTION PROPOSAL
ANNAPOLIS - Environmental
regulators may one day be able to
Companies that would need to add or replace sulfur dioxide monitors
under Maryland Department of the Environment proposal:
monitor air pollution at nearly two
dozen Maryland plants without ever
Baltimore Gas & Electric Co. Brandon Shores and Wagner plants (Anne
leaving their office, an idea industry
Arundel County); Crane plant (Baltimore County); and Gould Street plant
groups say is premature and costly.
(Baltimore)
A proposal now under consider-
Potomac Electric Power Co. Dickerson plant (Montgomery County);
Morgantown plant (Charles County); and Chalk Point plant (Prince
ation in the Department of the Envi-
George's County)
ronment would require 22 plants to
Potomac Edison Power Co. Williamsport plant (Washington County)
install continuous emission mon-
Wesvaco paper mill (Allegany County)
itors in smokestacks.
Pulaski incinerator (Baltimore)
The selected plants either are ma-
Medical Waste Associates (Baltimore)
jor sources of pollution or have
Waste Energy Partners Limited Partnership (Harford County)
failed to meet government standards
Baltimore City Resource Recovery Facility
in the past.
A special monitor, a device about
Companies that have no sulfur dioxide monitors and would have
to install them:
the size of a small television set,
would be installed in a control room
Lehigh Portland Cement Co. (Carroll County)
at the base of the smokestack. A line
Delmarva Power and Light Co. Vienna plant (Dorchester County)
from the monitor would extend into
Bethlehem Steel Co. (Baltimore)
the smokestack, collecting emission
Independent Cement Corp. (Washington County)
Coplay Cement Co. (Frederick County)
samples.
National Institutes of Health (Bethesda)
The monitors would use the sam-
Indian Head Naval Ordnance site (Charles County)
ples to measure either the sulfur di-
Baltimore Gas & Electric Co. plants in Westport (Baltimore) and Riverside
oxide level or the thickness of the
(Baltimore County)
emission. An average reading, calcu-
Source: Maryland Department of the Environment
lated every six minutes for thickness
The Washington Times
and every three hours for sulfur di-
oxide, would be sent to a computer
the telemetry system.
ulators to monitor emissions, so a
at the plant.
"Enforcement of environmental
portion of the proposal will be imple-
The data would be compiled and
regulations cannot be enhanced by
mented, Mr. York said. The com-
issued in quarterly reports, said Carl
having someone call up for the read-
puter telemetry system that pro-
York, division chief of regulation de-
ings," said Ted Ringger, supervisor
vides the instant data is not
velopment for the Air Management
of air and water quality in environ-
required, however.
Administration.
mental programs at Baltimore Gas
A second, controversial part of
The Department of the Environ-
and Electric. "They still have to
ment estimated that it would cost the
the proposal would be the installa-
come to the plant and verify that the
22 affected sites a total of $2.5 mil-
tion of a computer "telemetry" sys-
monitor did its job before they can
tem. This would allow state environ-
lion for equipment and installation
give notice of violation."
and another $830,000 for operation
mental regulators in Baltimore to
The utilities and the Maryland
and maintenance. Industry officials
access a company's computer at any
Chamber of Commerce have urged
said that estimate is far below costs.
time and obtain an immediate read-
state officials to withhold their de-
ing on whether clean air standards
cision on this proposal until this
"The cost is significantly more
are being met.
summer, when the U.S. Environmen-
than what the department has es-
"Say you wanted to know what the
tal Protection Agency presents new
timated," Mr. Ringger said. "It's go-
reading was at Pepco's Chalk Point
regulations for the federal Clean Air
ing to cost Baltimore Electric $2.6
plant at 8 a.m. I could call it up," said
Act.
million, equal to what the state said
Mr. York.
"The new Clean Air Act takes ni-
it would cost all the affected sources.
"It's almost like me being at your
trogen oxides very seriously, and it
Pepco said it would cost them $8 mil-
plant
recording what you're do-
would cost a lot more money to have
lion to do what they had to do. The
ing all the time," he said. "You as the
these [monitors] adjusted to mea-
department is not counting a lot of
owner of the plant know I'm watch-
sure this rather than have Maryland
things in their estimate that should
ing you all the time through the
wait awhile," Mr. Ringger said. "We
be counted."
[monitor] and will be more careful."
don't want to have to do this twice."
Staff writer Cheryl Wetzstein
Utility companies have opposed
EPA guidelines direct state reg-
contributed to this article.
24
EPA in the News
THE NEW YORK TIMES THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 7, 1991 B10
Not Using Fossil Fuels Could Add to Warming
By WILLIAM K. STEVENS
way through the ocean-atmosphere cli-
Both Dr. Wigley and Dr. Charlson
Efforts to head off a predicted global
mate system. By contrast, the effect of
warned against using the aerosol effect
warming by reducing the burning of
atmospheric sulfur dioxide particles is
as a justification for taking no action to
fossil fuels, as is widely being urged,
felt almost immediately and dies away
reduce the burning of fossil fuels. For
could actually worsen the warming in
rapidly once emissions stop.
one thing, Dr. Charlson said, the cool-
the short run, scientists say.
"If you instantly stopped burning fos-
ing effect of the sulfur dioxide aerosols
Fossil fuels like coal and oil emit car-
sil fuels, then the aerosols would fall
must be viewed as a temporary phe-
bon dioxide when they are burned, and
out in a couple of days," said Dr. James
nomenon "that has masked what's
the carbon dioxide traps heat in the
really going on in the temperature
Earth's atmosphere much like a green-
record."
house does. Climatologists predict that
if the emission of carbon dioxide and
A worsening of
The average surface temperature of
the Earth has been rising over the last
other greenhouse gases like methane
decade and is now at a record level, al-
and chlorofluorocarbons continues at
global warming
though few scientists are yet ready to
current rates, the average surface
conclude that the warming has been
temperature of the Earth will rise 2 to 5
would be only a
caused by the greenhouse effect rather
degrees Fahrenheit in the next cen-
than other climatic factors.
tury, causing widespread ecological,
agricultural and social damage.
short-term effect.
In the long run, Dr. Charlson said,
But in a less-noticed phenomenon,
failure to rein in the greenhouse gases
the burning of fossil fuels also emits
would risk a dangerous warming de-
sulfur dioxide particles, which scien-
spite the aerosol effect.
tists refer to as aerosols. These reflect
Moreover, both he and Dr. Wigley
E. Hansen, a climatologist at the God-
sunlight, cooling the Earth and partly
pointed out, the cooling effect of the
dard Institute for Space Studies in New
offsetting whatever warming may be
aerosols takes place mostly in the
York. "The greenhouse gases stay
taking place. A reduction in the burning
Northern Hemisphere, where most
there for 100 years, so you'd actually
of fossil fuels would reduce this cooling
sources of sulfur dioxide aerosols are
increase the heating" in the short term.
effect.
located, while the carbon dioxide and
"But in the long run," he said, "you'd
The resulting rise in temperature
its warming effect are diffused around
decrease the temperature and the
could more than compensate for the
the globe.
heating."
cooling that would be achieved by the
Big questions remain as to how the
accompanying reduction in carbon
Calculations Look 'Reasonable'
aerosols would affect weather pat-
dioxide in the next 10 to 30 years, ac-
The calculations "look very reason-
terns, Dr. Charlson said. That is cru-
cording to a study reported in today's
able," said Dr. Robert J. Charlson, an
cial, since weather is what distributes
issue of the British journal Nature by
atmospheric chemist at the University
heat around the planet. And Dr. Wigley
Dr. T. M. L. Wigley, a climatologist at
of Washington who is an expert on
wrote in his report that the very imbal-
the University of East Anglia in Eng-
aerosols and climate. Dr. Charlson said
ance in aerosol effects between the
land.
that both he and Dr. Wigley are per-
Northern and Southern hemispheres is
Warming Could Be More Intense
suaded that the question of the aero-
"potentially even more disruptive to
sols' effect on global warming is "a
the climate system than a uniformly
This means that global warming
sleeping giant of a sort." It is "some-
distributed 'pure' greenhouse effect."
could be more intense than expected
thing that has been missed, and the
for up to three decades, Dr. Wigley
For this reason, Dr. Wigley conclud-
consequences are not trivial," he said.
found, after which the reduction in
ed, the effect of sulfur dioxide aerosols
"It is going to complicate matters in
burning fossil fuels would begin to
should not be seen as a benefit, but "as
terms of setting policy."
bring about a global cooling.
further reason for implementing con-
Delegates from 130 countries are
The reason for the lag is that the ef-
trols on fossil fuel use."
now meeting at Chantilly, Va., outside
fect of carbon dioxide reductions would
Scientists have known for some time
Washington, in the first negotiating
be felt only over decades, since that is
that the aerosols directly reflect sun-
sessions toward a treaty limiting emis-
how long it takes them to work their
light back into space and that they also
sions of greenhouse gases.
serve as nuclei for cloud droplets.
EPA in the News
THE WASHINGTON POST
A22 THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 7, 1991
Vast Kuwaiti Oil Slick Begins
Threatening Saudi Coastal Facilities
on this section of the gulf. "The wa-
The following is a journalists' pool
plants, but the visit was abruptly can-
ter is full of plants and animals," said
report filed by Edith M. Lederer of the
celed after the reporters toured
Othman Taoud. "We used to eat the
Associated Press and Tarek Hamada
Tanajib.
fish."
of the Detroit News.
Although the spill has not yet
TANAJIB, Saudi Arabia-The
reached here, reporters who visited
But now, said Taoud and co-work-
world's largest oil spill has begun
the beachside facility saw young
er Jaafar Abdul Karim Munasif, peo-
ple here have stopped eating gulf
washing ashore near oil processing
birds whose wings were so coated
fish, which include a popular kind of
facilities at Safaniya on Saudi Ara-
with oil that they could not fly and
cod known as hammour.
bia's northeast Persian Gulf coast,
were staggering aimlessly on black-
"[Iraqi leader] Saddam Hussein
posing a threat to production from
ened sand. Another bird, its feathers
has gone out of bounds," Munsaif
the world's fourth largest oil field.
thick with oil, lay dead in the sand
said. "The things he has done aren't
Thick patches of oil from the lead-
near a large rusting pipe.
the actions of a true Muslim."
ing edge of the giant spill started
blackening beaches near an oil treat-
"Look at the poor bird. Look at the
ment complex and desalination plant
poor thing," said Suleiman Abdul
at Safaniya two days ago, according
Aziz Fasad, the maintenance director
to a Saudi oil official who is directing
at Tanajib, as he pointed to one of
FRENT BOOM
the fight to contain the spill at
the small creatures struggling in vain
Safanyia and at another oil complex
to spread its wings.
here at Tanajib, 12 miles farther
There are now specialized spill-
south along the Saudi coast.
surrounding booms, oil-skimming
An official with the Saudi-govern-
boats, tight-mesh filters and even
ment owned oil company, Saudi-
fishnets protecting the channel lead-
Aramco, said that Safaniya-about
ing from the open gulf to the desa-
100 miles south of the Kuwaiti
lination plant.
pumping station where Iraqi forces
At Tanajib, multicolored snake-
let loose the flood of crude oil more
like booms stretched across the tur-
than two weeks ago-was "all full of
quoise water. Red ones looking like
oil," and he told reporters that Tana-
cotton-stuffed bolognas absorb oil on
jib would look the same way "in three
Saudi oil-spill workers clad in protective gear hoist floating booms into position around
the surface at the shallowest part of
days."
the coastline. Yellow and black
intake valves of a desalination plant at Tanajib on the Persian Gulf coast.
Segundo Fernandez, superinten-
booms made of plastic and fabric
dent of the desalination plant at
were visible in calm water a little
Tanajib, said Aramco would not be
farther from the coast to block the
able to process oil from wells sited
offshore above the Safaniya field if
oil from drifitng shoreward. Farthest
the spill clogged the water intake
out were several dark-colored, heavy
system at the shoreline oil distillation
rubber booms with skirts descending
facilities. At the moment, however,
nearly two feet into the choppy wa-
Aramco spokesman Joseph Kenny
ter.
said the Safaniya field "is in full op-
"All the area is enveloped in
eration."
booms," said one Aramco official,
Safaniya is the largest offshore oil
who added that crews at Safaniya
field in the world and the fourth larg-
were still working furiously to ex-
;est of any kind. A 1978 Rand Corp.
tend the floating barriers even far-
'report says it has the potential of
ther.
producing between 1.5 and 2 million
"There is still a chance of more oil
barrels a day.
because of weather
We have no
control over it. We will get oil around
An international media pool organ-
us, but we try to minimize the impact
ized by the Saudi government had
on the shoreline, on the water in-
been scheduled to visit the Safaniya
takes," he said.
facility this week and had already
been briefed on Aramco's efforts to
Two Aramco employees said the
prevent oil from seeping into the
slick would have a devastating effect
EPA in the News
HEATING THE
GLOBAL
WARMING
DEBATE
In 1988 scientist Jim Hansen
testified that the world was getting hotter.
But how hot? And how fast?
LAST MONTH SCIENTISTS
reported that 1990 was the
seize on any hint of contro-
warmest year on the meteo-
versy with intemperate zeal.
rological record: the aver-
And climate experts offer
age global temperature,
scant relief, insisting as they
measured over land and sea,
do that the day-to-day fluctu-
exceeded that of any year in
ations ordinary people no-
the past century or so. Citing
tice aren't nearly as signifi-
this, a group of 16 senators,
cant as the long-term trends
including Albert Gore Jr.,
about which they them-
Democrat of Tennessee,
selves don't seem to agree.
wrote a letter to President
Anyone who's had traf-
Bush calling for immediate
fic with the global-warming
policy action to counter glob-
issue eventually longs for an
al warming. The 1990 infor-
oracle or a scapegoat, a fig-
mation, said the sen-
ure to trust implicitly or to
ators, "illustrates clearly that global climate change is real."
blame entirely. Both man-
Does it?
tles have come to rest on the shoulders of one unlikely individual: a
In the five years since the terms "global warming" and "green-
mild-mannered scientist in the National Aeronautics and Space
house effect" became shibboleths of environmental awareness, the
Administration named James E. Hansen. Hansen, the director of
weather as a topic of conversation has gone from casual to confound-
NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, located in Manhattan,
ing. The briefest of heat waves is enough to kindle despair over the
is the plain-spoken climatologist who testified before the Senate
future of the planet, while a transient cold spell can send greenhouse
Committee on Energy and Natural Resources in the summer of 1988
consciousness into hibernation. Environmentalists conjure images
that the world was warming, probably because of an increase in the
of disaster; industrialists appeal to scientific uncertainty; the media
atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and other so-called greenhouse
gases, which trap heat the way the glass plates of a greenhouse do.
Karen Wright is a contributing correspondent for Science maga-
For those seemingly modest statements, Hansen has been
zine and a former staff writer for Scientific American.
alternately praised, denounced, lionized and lampooned by peers
and public alike. Meanwhile, his views on the greenhouse effect
24 THENEW YORK TIMES MAGAZINE FEBRUARY BY 3. KAREN 1991 WRIGHT
conta
EPA in the News
The Cincinnecti Past 1-18-91
OH.
Clean Air Act changes will press
Ohio businesses
By Jennifer Kent
Post staff reporter
Greater Cincinnati businesses are in
that toughens tailpipe emissions tests
for a lot of paperwork and a lot of
and enacting it by November. It will
expense to come into compliance with
likely involve motorists having their
the new Clean Air Act amendments,
tailpipes electronically tested at a
environmental experts said Thursday.
state-run facility as opposed to having
"It's going to affect the hospital you
it manually inspected at a gas station,
Kee said.
were born in, the mortuary they take
between," said Robert Brubaker, attor-
you when you die and everything in
Industries such as printers and
dry cleaners who release certain sol-
ney with Porter, Wright Morris & Ar-
vents into the air also face consider-
thur, paraphrasing U.S. Rep. John
able cutbacks in their emissions.
Dingell, D-Mich., chairman of the
Cincinnati, which must cut emissions by 15 per-
mittee. House Energy and Commerce Com-
cent, has until 1993 to develop a plan for doing so
and until 1996 to do it.
No one knows yet how many addi-
Cincinnati Gas & Electric will probably raise
its rates 12 to 16 percent to offset costs of scrub-
tional businesses will be affected by
bers and fuel-switching to come into compliance
525 pages of sweeping changes to the
with the new legislation, said Greg Ficke, manager
Clean Air Act - the first major over-
of environmental affairs. Of the 111 plants affected
haul in 13 years. It was signed by Pres-
around the country, Ohio has the most with 15.
ident Bush Nov. 15.
CG&E's Miami Fort and Beckjord plants are
"My guess is that it's going to affect
among them.
tens of thousands of businesses in
New federal regulations, not expected to be
Ohio alone," Brubaker said.
implemented until 1996, will require affected firms
Brubaker was one of several speak-
to pay $25 a ton for each regulated pollutant up to
ers to address representatives of gov-
4,000 tons. There are now 189 regulated pollutants,
compared to the former 19. Manufacturers now
ernment and small and large
businesses throughout Greater Cincin-
pay a nominal amount for an operating permit
from the state of Ohio.
nati at the Chamber of Commerce-
sponsored Clean Air Act Seminar.
Area businesses have failed to meet
In two years, businesses in 41 industries
attaintment or federal standards
emitting more than 10 tons of a regulated pollut-
only in ozone and sulfur dioxide emis-
ant or 25 tons of a combination of two or more
pollutants will face regulation. Prior to November,
the Clean Air Act was largely inapplicable to
sions, said David Kee, director of the
sources under 100 tons per year.
regional U.S. Environmental Protec-
tion Agency office in Chicago.
Companies exceeding limits would trigger regu-
lation in the form of Maximum Achievable Con-
While Cincinnati is classified as
trol Technology, which requires them to switch to
having achieved attainment in sulfur
alternative materials or buy whatever machinery
dioxide emissions, the U.S. Environ-
is needed to control emissions.
mental Protection Agency is sending
"It's likely we'll lose some businesses and it's
Gov. Voinovich a letter "within days"
to declare Hamilton and Butler as
going to make smaller businesses less competi-
non-attainment counties, he said.
tive," said Kim Burke, an attorney with Taft, Stet-
tinius & Hollister.
The governor will have 120 days to
acknowledge the new classification
and until 1993 to submit a plan for
reaching attainment by 1996.
In ozone emissions, Cincinnati rates
a "moderate" on the five-level non-at-
tainment scale, the second-lowest rat-
ing but within 5 percent of a "serious"
ranking, Kee said.
Among effects of the Clean Air Act:
The Ohio Legislature will be
charged this year with drafting a bill
EPA in the News
cont'd
have come to form the nexus of the scientific debate on when, where and
whether global warming will occur in the next century. Some of his
conclusions have already become dogma.
In fact, it's not his science that gets Jim Hansen in trouble - it's his
style. Hansen has all the moves of a hustler but none of the guile. Backed by
a body of exhaustive and universally respected research, he routinely flouts
his profession's tacit restrictions on categorical and unauthorized state-
ments while maintaining the pacific innocence of a curious child. It's a
combination that baffles his friends, who can't give him their unqualified
support, as well as his critics, who can't even manage to dislike him.
This week, representatives from dozens of countries will meet in
Washington to begin negotiating an international agreement on global
climate change. The conferees will discuss, among other items, the need to
control emissions of greenhouse gases. Although Hansen won't be attending,
the event itself is part of his legacy; the first Washington-based meeting, last
April, was believed by many to have been a conciliatory effort by the White
House to quell criticism surrounding its alteration of Congressional testimo-
ny given by Hansen in 1989. Both his supporters and his detractors admit
that Hansen has done them a service by putting global warming on the
political agenda. But Hansen can also be accused of polarizing opinion on an
issue that should not really be all that divisive. "You almost have to start
your discussions by saying, 'Do you agree or don't you agree with Jim
Hansen?'" says James Van
Allen, Hansen's former teach-
er, a professor emeritus in
SUMMER TEMPERATURES
physics and astronomy at the
University of Iowa and a sea-
1965
2020
soned observer of the debate.
The answer, it seems, is more
a profession of faith than a
rational judgment.
KAREN, JIM HANSEN
wrote in pencil on lined note-
book paper last September.
I'm skeptical about whether a
Times magazine article is a
good idea. For one thing, I'm
1990
2050
not at all an appropriate per-
sonality for a profile - I'm a
very quiet and shy scientist. I
am very inarticulate.
Also, scribbled Hansen,
an article focusing on me will
just annoy other researchers
of course, they're already
pretty mad.
For such a shy, quiet guy,
Jim Hansen has indeed
caused a bit of a fuss. A fre-
quent guest during the past
-3-2-1012345
decade at Congressional com-
AT(°C)
mittee hearings on climate
change, the "inarticulate" sci-
GODDARD INSTITUTE FOR SPACE STUDIES
entist has regularly managed
Hansen's computer-generated models, above, illustrate changes in global
to say something to raise the
temperature relative to the average 1950 to 1980 temperature. If the
eyebrows, if not the ire, of his
rate of change remains the same, the world's weather will be dramatically
colleagues. His 1988 Congres-
altered by the middle of the next century. Hansen believes, however, that there
sional testimony drew a bar-
is a good possibility of reducing the growth rate of greenhouse gases,
rage of criticism from other
which would lead to smaller changes than those illustrated.
climate experts. In 1989 he
earned more demerits from his publicity-wary peers when he revealed that
his statement of that year had been altered by the Office of Management
and Budget. And in 1990 he managed to raise the hackles of a whole new
cadre of scientists by proposing a climate-satellite project that other NASA
investigators see as a direct challenge to a system they have been planning
for years.
"I think you just have to do what you think is right - that's what I
cont'd
EPA in the News
cont'd
learned in 1988. Now I'm really not concerned about the repercussions,"
says Hansen. Certainly his is not the posture of an anxious man. The 49-
year-old Midwesterner is slumped in one of several beat-up leatherback
chairs occupying his office at the Goddard Institute. His feet are propped
on the only bare spot his desk has to offer. Every surface in the room,
including most of the floor, is covered with piles of articles and computer
printouts, like the blasted foundation of a paperwork temple.
In his standard office attire - khaki pants, a plaid cotton shirt and a
crew-neck sweater - Hansen looks like somebody's dad at a P.T.A.
meeting. He speaks with the placid deliberation of an Iowa farmer
describing last fall's harvest.
"I think that, after not too long, the better science does rise to the
top." Pause. "The scientific process will tell who was right."
Hansen made three claims before Congress in the fateful summer of
1988: First, that he was 99 percent sure the earth was warming. Second,
that he could say with a high degree of confidence that the warming was
due to an increase in greenhouse gases. And third, that because of global
warming, events like droughts would increase noticeably in the 1990's. He
hasn't changed his mind about any of those points, except to add floods,
storms and fires to the list of events.
Those who disagree with what Hansen says - one climatologist calls
them "greenhouse agnostics" - fall into three sects corresponding, more
or less, to Hansen's three statements:
Those who don't believe the temperature record (begun by nation-
al meteorological agencies only 140 years ago) is reliable enough to
demonstrate a warming trend.
Those who agree that there has been a warming but aren't sure
blame can be assigned solely to increases in the emissions of greenhouse
gases. World climate is, after all, the sum total of largely mysterious
interactions among clouds, oceans, trees, volcanoes, ice, snow, dust
particles, water vapor, aerosols and the sun, as well as greenhouse gases.
Those who don't think anyone understands climate well enough to
predict the meteorological effects of global warming.
Against this legion of critics, Hansen has a corps of admirers as
well, climate experts who praise his courage and laud his science. "I
don't have any fundamental disagreements with Jim," says Stephen H.
Schneider of the National
Center for Atmospheric Re-
search (N.C.A.R.). "He is
probably right."
But Schneider, like
many others, tiptoes away
from endorsing Hansen's
statements. Though he is
one of the most outspoken
advocates of a government
policy to address the green-
house effect, Schneider
won't go as far out on the
limb as Hansen has in his
scientific appraisals.
"It's just that he believes
more in the scientific cer-
tainty than I do," says
Schneider. "I think intuitive-
ly he has a higher confidence
in the tools."
THE TOOLS TO WHICH
Schneider refers are cli-
mate models: computer pro-
grams descended from the
algorithms used to predict
the weather, but much more
complicated and much less
reliable than those used for
cont'd
EPA in the News
Contid
heat and fail to reproduce either the geographic
or temporal patterns of temperature changes in
weather forecasting on a
the past century.
day-to-day basis. One of the
"We know the greenhouse effect is real," Solow
three most advanced mod-
says. "And we know that the levels of the gases are
els in the United States is at
increasing. And so, other things being equal, you
the Goddard Institute; the
would expect there to be some warming. But other
other two are at N.C.A.R. in
things needn't be equal: other climate processes
Boulder, Colo., and at the
could act either to suppress or reinforce the warm-
National Oceanic and Atmo-
ing. And the real question is, how much warming
spheric Administration's
do we expect to get from this, and at what rate?
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J.
That, I think, is uncertain, highly uncertain."
All the models are based on two verities of atmospheric science: that
Hansen doesn't deny the uncertainty. In fact,
gases like carbon dioxide, methane, ozone, nitrous oxide and chlorofluo-
some days he, too, rues the state of climate model-
rocarbons (known as CFC's) trap heat in the earth's atmosphere through
ing. But then he may turn around and bet 75
what is commonly known as the greenhouse effect, and that the atmo-
colleagues at a NASA conference that at least one
spheric levels of these gases have risen since the beginning of the
year from 1990 to 1992 will be warmer than any
Industrial Revolution.
year in the previous century. Hansen did just that
That the greenhouse effect keeps the planet about 30 degrees
last spring. Only one scientist took him up on his
centigrade, or 54 degrees Fahrenheit, hotter than it would be otherwise is
bet, and he lost $100 when 1990 set the record.
not in dispute. Nor is the amount of the increase in greenhouse gases at
issue. There is general agreement that carbon dioxide has increased by
CASUAL SPECTATOR MIGHT GET THE
about 25 percent in the past century, and methane has doubled; long-term
A
impression that the implications of the
measurements don't exist for the other gases.
greenhouse effect are disputed as often as
Essentially, the increases mean that the earth's atmosphere holds
the hazards of cholesterol. But disagreement about
on to 1 percent more of the sun's energy than it did in 1800. It would be
what has happened to the world's climate over the
fairly easy to calculate the change in average global surface tempera-
past century is greater than disagreement over
ture from that figure if the buildup of greenhouse gases were the only
what will happen. Since 1979, when the first com-
factor in climate variability. But there are many, many more.
prehensive report on global climate change was
The ocean, for example, absorbs heat from the atmosphere and
compiled for the National Academy of Sciences,
seems to act as a buffer against climate change. How fast the heat
consensus statements from the scientific commu-
exchange occurs, however, and how long
nity have predicted a warming of between about
1.5 and 4.5 degrees centigrade (between about 3
the buffer effect will last are anyone's guess.
and 8 degrees Fahrenheit) in the next 100 years.
Clouds have a net cooling effect on the earth, but
Climate models haven't challenged that estimate.
it is not clear whether cloud cover will increase or
The consequences of such warming would
decrease if the global temperature rises. And
range from the uncomfortable to the downright
even the warming contribution of carbon dioxide
catastrophic. Temperature averages during the
is complicated by the fact that the burning of
last Ice Age, which ended roughly 12,000 years ago,
fossil fuels - the main source of carbon dioxide
were probably 5 degrees centigrade colder than
- also releases gases into the atmosphere that
form aerosols, which serve to cool the earth.
global averages today and brought dramatic
In science, the traditional approach to such
changes in sea level, mass extinction of species and
complex phenomena is the empirical method:
a widespread redistribution of flora and fauna.
Greenhouse scientists place themselves at
make a simplifying assumption, generate a predic-
tion and then see if the prediction comes true. If it
different points along the warming range. Han-
sen puts himself at the hot end, predicting a
doesn't, revise the assumption and try again.
That's how models for weather forecasting are
warming of 3 or 4 degrees centigrade. Schneider
falls somewhere in the middle. Solow says he
developed.
could "live with" a forecast of 1.5 to 2.5 degrees.
"If you find that your forecasting is right eight
Richard Lindzen, a Massachusetts Institute of
out of 10 times, you say, 'Look, my simplifying
assumption is correct, as demonstrated by the fact
Technology meteorologist who has been one of
that I've succeeded in predicting the weather,"
the most dogged critics of Hansen's results, bit-
explains Syukuro Manabe, a veteran climate mod-
terly protests the exercise of predicting climate
eler at the Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Climate
change, then reluctantly offers an estimate of 1.2
models make predictions on time scales of decades
degrees. Truth is, it's hard to find a climatologist
and centuries, however, rendering empiricism im-
these days who doesn't believe in global warming.
Last year a comprehensive survey of scientific
potent.
In the absence of verification, some experts
opinion published through the World Meteorologi-
think the models aren't worth the chips they're
cal Organization and the United Nations Environ-
programmed on.
ment Program drew the broadest consensus yet on
the issue. Hundreds of scientists from around the
"I think there's reason to believe that the
models are not only bad - that you can't rely on
world participated in the survey. (Hansen limited
them as forecasting tools - but that when they're
his participation, deciding that involvement would
used to forecast greenhouse warming, they tend
deprive him of time he would rather spend on
to be systematically too hot," says Andrew R.
research.)
Solow of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institu-
The familiar conclusion of the survey was that
tion in Massachusetts. Solow says current models
average global temperatures would increase by
underestimate the ocean's capacity to absorb
about 3 degrees centigrade by the end of the next
Cont'd
EPA in the News
contl
hallway is lit like a catacomb. The carpet on the
seventh floor is the color of boiled spinach; there's
century if controls on greenhouse-gas emissions
a plant dying in almost every window.
were not instituted. If stringent controls were insti-
This neglected corner of the NASA empire
tuted, the report said, the increase could be cut to 1
suits Jim Hansen just fine. "We're close to being a
degree centigrade. At the same time, the report
non-civil-service organization, because only 20 peo-
admitted, "The unequivocal detection of the en-
ple here have hard money for their salaries," he
hanced greenhouse effect from observations is not
says, including his own $79,200 annual paycheck.
likely for a decade or more."
By soliciting additional financing from the Envi-
The consensus report offers cold comfort for
ronmental Protection Agency and NASA, Hansen
those who choose not to believe in global warm-
has managed to build the institute's staff to 140.
ing. But they can find their own sacred texts. A
"We're handicapped, but there are some ad-
report published in 1989 by a Washington-based
vantages: The key benefit is independence. We've
think tank called the George C. Marshall Insti-
sometimes expressed strong or unpopular opin-
tute, for example, suggested that factors such as
ions and just ignored the fact that we're civil
variations in solar activity could influence the
servants. I recognize the forces that come back
calculus of global warming. Some greenhouse
and push on us because of those statements. We
agnostics have used the report's conclusions to
haven't had a new hire here in four years, and in
argue that solar activity could mitigate the ef-
my gut I know very well that the reason we
fects of greenhouse-gas accumulation; most sci-
haven't is that they don't like things I've said."
entists have disregarded it.
After a moment, he adds, "Though there's no way
to prove that," and smiles.
OCTOBER 1990: JIM HANSEN, RELUCTANT
Hansen's initial encounter with the "forces"
profile subject, sends me several pounds of back-
was in 1981, when he published the first solid
ground material, including scientific articles,
evidence that the earth was warming. The Depart-
newspaper clippings, letters, Congressional state-
ment of Energy reneged on a promise of financial
ments and transcripts of speaking engagements, in
help after Hansen's study made front-page head-
three separate mailings. His secretary prepares a
lines, and he had to lay off five people. "For a while
five-hour videotape of his television appearances.
there, I became a 40-hour-a-week scientist."
November 1990: Hansen sends two four-page
It didn't last. A year later Hansen managed to
letters clarifying his thoughts about questions I'd
wrest some money from the Environmental Pro-
raised in interviews. Several more packages of
tection Agency, and he plunged back into 80-hour
background material arrive. One contains an older
workweeks. In testimony before Congress in 1982,
sister's memoirs (unpublished) of their childhood.
1986 and 1987, he grew ever more confident in his
I'm not a good interview on personal things, he
appraisals of the seriousness of greenhouse
writes, and actually seems to believe that's true.
warming. But few people outside Congress and
Hansen is the son of a waitress and a tenant
the scientific community took notice with the
farmer from Denison, Iowa (pop. 5,000). He
exception of the Office of Management and Budg-
earned money for college with a paper route,
et, which, mindful of the Reagan Administration's
played pool in beer halls after school and walked
penury regarding climate research, tried to tone
miles of railroad tracks with his dog Skeeter. He
down the statement he planned to make in 1987.
claims he almost never cracked a book he didn't
(Hansen was permitted to offer his testimony as
have to until he got to the University of Iowa,
a private citizen.)
where he met James Van Allen, then chairman of
Then the summer of 1988 struck. Drought
the physics and astronomy department. Van Al-
stranded barges in the Mississippi and blistering
len discovered and gave his name to the belts of
heat tried Congressional tempers in the Capitol.
radiation that circle the earth; he is something of
Jim Hansen found himself in front of a Senate
a legend and, according to Hansen, he ran the
committee once again. But this time he had more
kind of program that can change the course of a
ammunition: he'd just had a paper accepted by the
student's life. Van Allen suggested the topic for
Journal of Geophysical Research that would docu-
Hansen's dissertation and then helped him get a
ment the statements he wanted to make.
postdoctoral fellowship in 1967 at the Goddard
Within a few weeks of that memorable testi-
Institute, an offshoot of the Goddard Space Flight
mony, a House subcommittee invited Hansen to
Center in Greenbelt, Md.
repeat his performance. "I was told about calls
"I was so excited by the opportunity to study at
from the White House to NASA expressing great
a NASA laboratory that I drove all the way to New
displeasure about my testimony. There were ru-
York without stopping to sleep," Hansen says. Two
mors about what might happen to me, with possi-
years later the institute offered him a staff posi-
ble implications for the Goddard Institute." Han-
tion, and he got involved in the weather-prediction
sen testified anyway, and kept his job in the
research that was a major part of Goddard's
bargain.
charter in the 1970's. In 1981, Hansen succeeded
A year later, when O.M.B. tried to alter his
Robert Jastrow as the institute's director.
testimony a second time inserting qualifiers
Hansen is lord of a modest manor. Goddard is
about the uncertainty of model predictions and
housed in a gloomy gray edifice on the northeast
about man's contribution to the greenhouse-gas
corner of 112th Street and Broadway near Colum-
accumulation he took his grievances straight to
bia University. The institute sits atop Tom's Res-
Senator Gore, who played the situation for all it
taurant, a greasy spoon of local renown whose
was worth in the media.
fumes often waft up to the floors above. Inside, the
"He may have turned it into a circus," Stephen
Schneider says of Gore, "but the circus worked. A
day later the White House was on the defensive
cont'd-
EPA in the News
control
ting averages may not seem so different."
Partly because Hansen is convinced the 1990's
because Hansen was the opening story on the
will be a pivotal period for climate prediction, he
evening news on every network." Before the week
proposed last summer that two small, relatively
was out, the White House announced it would hold a
inexpensive satellites could gather much of the
workshop on global warming to prepare for negoti-
missing data pertaining to global warming by the
ations on an international treaty, a meeting eventu-
end of the decade.
ally held in April of last year.
Some of Hansen's peers have been less than
enthusiastic about his idea - much less. NASA
AST OCTOBER HANSEN WAS HOST OF A
L
has plans to include some of the same tracking
barbecue in his backyard in Ridgewood,
instruments on its mammoth multibillion-dollar
N.J., about 15 miles west of New York City.
Earth Observing System (E.O.S.) project, which
The festivities began at 11 A.M. with a game of
is scheduled to be launched in 1998, and some
softball. Hansen's team - a spirited if somewhat
NASA scientists fear that Congress will try to
bedraggled group of Ph.D.'s with thin necks and
supplant their grand orbiting platform with Han-
thick glasses - took on Goddard's computer-
sen's puny satellites. They are also annoyed at the
support staff, tanned and brawny youths in daz-
way he went about presenting his ideas. Hansen
zling blue and white uniforms. Hansen pitched, and
waited until his proposal was virtually in print (in
in the space of half an hour gave up four home runs,
the National Academy of Sciences magazine)
the ball soaring over maple trees and across Pleas-
before showing it to his boss at the Goddard
ant Avenue.
With each homer Hansen, calculating the flight
Space Flight Center's earth sciences directorate.
He says he just forgot, then admits there may
trajectory with a baleful expression, merely
have been a method to his amnesia. "If I'd talked
tugged at his baseball cap. No cuss words or
histrionics here - this is the man who once asked a
to them beforehand, then I'd have
writer paraphrasing his thoughts to change
gotten some input, which was the
"damn" to "darned."
last thing I wanted."
Hansen has described himself as "overcompe-
His boss was "sorely dis-
titive." "Can you believe we actually beat these
tressed," Hansen says. "He felt
guys last year?" he asked as he walked off the field.
that I was not supporting the insti-
I couldn't, so I changed the subject. "Nice day
tution's objectives" - meaning
for a picnic."
E.O.S. "But anyway, it doesn't real-
"Yeah," he agreed, pulling off his hat and
ly matter. Eventually these people
wiping the sweat from his forehead. "Could be
come around."
about 10 degrees cooler, though."
Hansen wasn't thinking about carbon dioxide.
GIVEN THE BUSH ADMINIS-
But I asked the loaded question anyway: could this
tration's recent history regarding
unseasonably warm fall be a sign of the green-
the issue, Washington seems an
house effect in action? Can the man in the street
unlikely place to convoke this
judge for himself whether global warming has
month's global warming confer-
arrived?
ence.
"You can't stick your head out the window to
Last fall, climate experts
look for the greenhouse effect unless you're clever
meeting in Geneva issued the
enough to compare the climate to what it was a few
most sweeping policy recommen-
decades ago," he said. "The problem that people
dations from the scientific com-
have is not recognizing the magnitude of natural
munity to date, urging all coun-
variability, which is large in comparison to the
tries to take immediate steps to
warming." Actual warming, Hansen believes, has
reduce greenhouse gases. The re-
been about half a degree centigrade since 1850, a
port said many industrialized na-
quarter of a degree between 1850 and 1950 and
tions could cut carbon dioxide
another quarter of a degree since then.
emissions at least 20 percent by
But Hansen says the next 10 years "will tell us
the year 2005 with existing tech-
quite a lot." He predicts that by the end of the 1990's
nologies and without significantly
the world will have warmed up a few tenths of a
burdening their economies. Even
degree. "The things that we'll see in the 1990's are
before the report, many industri-
not necessarily going to seem very threatening.
alized nations had instituted plans
They'll be noticeable, but probably not dramatic."
for stabilizing greenhouse gas lev-
But, he added significantly, "the same models that
els. All 12 nations of the European
project dramatic impacts in 30 or 40 years are
Community have set targets for
predicting noticeable but small effects in the
slowing carbon-dioxide emissions
1990's. I think the public can recognize that statisti-
generated by cars, homes and fac-
cal change."
tories. Representatives from Western Europe,
Hansen seemed at a loss for an analogy. Then,
Japan, Australia and New Zealand stated at the
suitable to the occasion, he came up with the
conference that they could impose such restric-
Yankees.
tions at no extra cost to their economies.
"For example, the public can recognize a sig-
But the United States, which is responsible
nificant difference in the chances of Don Mattingly
for more than 20 percent of the world's carbon-
getting a hit as compared to Alvaro Espinoza, even
dioxide output, has maintained that more needs
though the percentages represented by their bat-
to be known about global warming before major
policy decisions can be made. The Soviet Union
contd-
EPA in the News
cont'd
and oil producers like Venezuela and Saudi Ara-
bia have sided with it. But the weight of interna-
tional opinion is bearing down on Washington.
Although United States negotiators succeeded in
excluding explicit targets for emissions cutbacks
from the conference declaration last fall, at this
week's conference, some observers say, the Ad-
ministration might have to capitulate.
Hansen plans to observe the convention pro-
ceedings from the peaceful refuge of his office on
the seventh floor at Goddard. "The argument
they all make is that if you really care about this,
you've gotta help publicize it," he says. "But I
think that the best contribution I can make is to
the science.
"We're not environmentalists; we're not trying to
defend some position that we've taken in the past.
We're trying to advance our understanding. We're
changing the atmosphere. What's that going to do?
"Now when the time comes," Hansen contin-
ues, "if we have a result that's important, we're not
going to be bashful about presenting it."
And Hansen does indulge in a little public
relations from time to time. He holds out a letter
from a high-school sophomore in Connecticut who
had asked him for information on global warming
for a term paper. (Did he send her five pounds of
background material, too, I wonder?)
"Now she wants advice on college. So I have to
think about what to say to her." Hansen lapses into
silence again, mulling over recommendations to a
15-year-old girl. In a few days he'll write back to
Katie Mottes, stressing the importance of "being
what you want to be." If you do that, you will be
more likely to do well and be happy. I have just
relearned that myself.
end
THE WASHINGTON POST
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 1991
U.S. Gets Mixed Reviews
of other countries. But because of
On Global Warming Plan
the economy's reliance on fossil
fuels-chiefly coal and oil-the ad-
ministration has been slow to move
'Action Agenda' Lacks Carbon Dioxide Target
beyond the research stage.
Yesterday's announcement by
Deland speaks of a "comprehensive
strategy," which shifts the focus of
By Michael Weisskopf
control efforts from carbon dioxide
Washington Post Staff Writer
"If this is their program, it sig-
to other warming gases.
The Bush administration yester-
nifies a shift," said Mostafa K.
The strategy, outlined in a pam-
day announced what it called an "ac-
Tolba, executive director of the
phlet called "An Action Agenda," in-
tion agenda" to combat global
United Nations Environment Pro-
cludes the phaseout of chlorofluoro-
warming, predicting that it will cut
gram. "They are stabilizing" warm-
carbons (CFCs), a policy that Wash-
emissions of some climate-warming
ing gases.
ington agreed to last summer as part
gases to 1987 levels by the turn of
More than 130 nations are partic-
of a treaty to protect the stratos-
the century.
ipating in the conference, which is
pheric ozone layer.
But the plan, unveiled at the first
supposed to meet intermittently over
Provisions of the new Clean Air
day of a U.N.-sponsored conference
the next 18 months to draft a strat-
Act, which Congress passed last Oc-
on global warming remedies, is es-
egy to fight global warming. Tolba
tober, also are included in the plan.
sentially a repackaging of policies
convened the nations after an inter-
Under the act coal-burning utilities
devised for other purposes and con-
national scientific panel concluded
were to adopt energy-conserving
tains no assurances that emissions
last summer that heat-trapping gases
measures to combat acid rain. The
will not resume growing after the
from industry and farming will raise
same measures would reduce carbon
year 2000.
world temperatures 2 degrees by
dioxide emissions. The act also sets
Nor does the plan set targets and
2025 and 6 degrees by 2100.
tougher limits on auto and industrial
timetables for control of carbon di-
With the United States respon-
pollution to reduce smog, which acts
oxide emissions-the principal
sible for one-quarter of world car-
as a warming gas.
warming gas-that most of Europe,
bon dioxide emissions, diplomatic
Deland said the plan would result
Japan and Canada have pledged to
pressure has been building for U.S.
in the emissions of global warming
stabilize or reduce early next cen-
policies to match the commitments
gases in 2000 "being equal to or
tury. U.S. emissions of carbon di-
below 1987 levels." He did not use
oxide, produced when any fuel is
the verb "stabilize," which advo-
burned, would increase by 15 per-
cates of tougher measures prefer to
cent under the plan.
characterize more ambitious pro-
Criticized by some European del-
grams to permanently cap emis-
egates as disingenuous, the plan
sions at current levels.
was praised by other conference
Environmentalists accused the
officials as a positive step for an
administration of "double-counting,"
administration that previously has
noting, for example, that the CFC
talked more of scientific uncertain-
phaseout alone will account for 85
ties than of remedies.
percent of the global warming gases
"We are united in the belief that
to be reduced by the plan.
despite large uncertainties, the po-
Willem Kakebeeke of the Dutch
tential threat of climate change jus-
Ministry of the Environment said the
tifies taking action now," Michael R.
U.S. program was "hiding a little bit"
Deland, chairman of the White
by taking credit for CFC phaseout
House Council on Environmental
and failing to target carbon dioxide
Quality, told the conference.
for controls. "They should come out
in the open and say what they are
going to do with carbon dioxide."
The Washington Times
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 1991
Officials finally warm up to
climate talks
By Ronald A. Taylor
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
After 11 years of talking, stalling
and warnings, international repre-
sentatives began negotiations yes-
terday on a treaty to avert global
warming.
WARREN BROOKES
Debate hotter
than the Earth?
ven as environmental-
E
ists ponder the devas-
tation in the Persian
SATELLITE
Gulf, another of their
TEMPERATURE
major policy issues is
MEASUREMENTS
under heated attack in
Departures from the
the United States.
1979-1990 mean
NASA's Marshall Space Flight In-
stitute and the University of Ala-
1979
+0.01 C.
bama in Huntsville just released up-
1980
+0.15 C.
dated findings of the trend in global
1981
+0.08 C.
temperatures as measured by sat-
ellites since 1979 through 1990 and
1982
-0.14 C.
found - no trend. What's more the
1983
+0.08 C.
findings show that 1990 was only the
1984
-0.19 C.
fourth-warmest year in the 12-year
1985
-0.28 C.
record, and only 0.13 degree higher
than the 1979-1990 mean. (See Chart
1986
-0.14C.
and Table.)
1987
+0.21 C.
1988
+0.19 C.
1989
0.00 C.
1990
+0.13 C.
Additional Stories:
Source: Marshall Space Flight Institute
(NASA), University of Alabama in Huntsville
"U.S. Accepts Greenhouse Target"
The Washington Times
(NY Times, 2-5-91 Page C9)
"In A Warming World, Who Comes
Out Ahead?
(NY Times, 2-5-91 Page C1)
16
The New York Times
FEB 0 Insi
Sununu VS. Scientists
answer: John Sununu, White
right in his skepticism. He and others
T
House chief of staff.
argued that the dangers of acid rain
Leslie H. Gelb
The question: Why are Admin-
were greatly exaggerated, and recent
istration officials like Secretary of
findings suggest they were correct.
State Baller and William Reilly, head
But such skeptics initially waved
of the Environmental Protection
aside the ozone problem, and two
Agency, afraid to speak their minds
years ago the perils of increasing
about the greenhouse effect those
ultraviolet light became so palpable
gases widely believed by scientists to
that the world community mandated
be trapping heat and dangerously
deep cuts in chiorofluorocarbons, or
raising global temperatures?
CFC's, to reduce holes in the ozone
And why are they all so quiet just
layer.
when 130 nations are meeting near
Arrayed against Mr. Sununu are
Washington on how to reduce emis-
people like Margaret Thatcher, solid
sions of greenhouse gases, principally
professionals like those in the World
carbon dioxide?
Resources Institute in Washington
The curtain on these matters lifts
and most of the scientific establish-
slightly with the following piece of
ment. The hard-nosed chief of staff
high liturgy issued in Mr. Baker's
has held them all at bay and threat-
behalf:
ens to stymie the nations gathered in
"Even though officials with oil and
Chantilly, Va., with a transparent
gas interests are not as a rule re-
gimmick.
quired to recuse themselves from
The Administration began the con-
general policy actions that may have
ference last week with a pledge to
a financial impact on those interests,
stabilize its production of greenhouse
Secretary Baker has removed him-
gases. But as everyone at the meeting
self generally from global climate
well understood, that could be accom-
change questions out of an abundance
of caution, on a case-by-case basis, to
plished simply by keeping a prior
commitment to reduce CFC's. The
avoid the appearance of any impro-
Administration proposes to do noth-
priety."
This remarkable "abundance of
caution" comes from the very former
Texas oil man who actively and sensi-
bly participates in framing Persian
Tough
Gulf policy and national energy strat-
egy, who himself placed global warm-
ing among his top diplomatic priori-
greenhouse
ties two years ago and who serves a
President remembered for his green-
politics.
house oratory during the last Presi-
dential campaign.
Mr. Baker, like most pros (and in
this case like Mr. Reilly and a host of
ing about the burning of fossil fuels
like oil and coal, the main sources of
Administration environmentalists
carbon dioxide. In fact, U.S. produc-
and scientists), backed away from
tion of carbon dioxide will signficant-
the greenhouse cause when be saw
Mr. Sununu's ferocity. John Sununu
ly increase in the coming years, more
showed be would take no prisoners
so because of the new energy policy.
here when he ordered the dismissal of
By contrast, Western European na-
a State Department official foolish
tions have already promised steep
enough to take seriously the Bush-
cuts in fossil fuel burning.
Baker pledges on global warming.
What is disturbing here is not Mr.
Mr. Sununu seems to find most
Sunumu's public relations ploy, but his
specialists in energy and environ-
lack of practicality. He can retain all
mental policy to be hysterics, bol-
his skepticism about global warming,
stered by bad scientists and unreli-
but the point remains that the very
able economists. Regarding global
steps needed to reduce the supposed
warming in particular, he believes
greenhouse effect are justifiable in
that scientists have failed to prove
their own right: carbon dioxide fouls
that there is a warming trend, that
the air. An oil-burning economy
the recent increase in temperatures
means continued dependence on im-
is being fueled by greenhouse gases
ports. Destruction of forests harms
or that temperature rises of 1 to 3
life itself.
degrees centigrade would badly dam-
Has Mr. Sununu been enforcing Ad-
age the global climate. He is also
ministration silence about such con-
convinced that available solutions to
siderations on his own tack or in
the problem are far too costly, and
behalf of Mr. Bush? If Mr. Bush has
that cheaper ones will appear in time
interest in global warming besides
to prevent calamity.
campaign bluster, he might go to the
31
Perhaps Mr. Sununu, who has in-
Chantilly conference and hear how
stalled a Liobal warming computer
the alarm bells sound for him-
model in his personal computer, is
self.
THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR
FEB
199
The Future of Nuclear Power
P.20
The opinion-page column "American
the use of more nuclear power. This is
far more costly than alternatives.
Opinion on Nuclear Power," Jan. 4, cor-
doubtful, considering that even after 40
Furthermore the nuclear programs in
rectly identifies some misperceptions about
years of heavy government promotion and
France and Japan are nowhere near as
nuclear energy. Although nonelectric en-
subsidy, nuclear energy still makes up only
healthy as the author implies. In France,
ergy use has declined nearly 20 percent
around 5 percent of world energy supplies.
widespread opposition to nuclear waste
since 1973, electricity use has in-
Far more realistic is an energy fu-
dumps has forced that country into a one-
creased 55 percent, and this trend
ture based on improved efficiency
year moratorium to address the growing
seems likely to continue.
and the use of renewable resources
public outcry. In Japan, public opposition
The easy success in conserva-
such as sunlight, wind, and living
has made it nearly impossible to site nuclear
tion of nonelectric energy is no ex-
plants.
power plants in all but two of the country's
cuse for failure to beef up the na-
The author apparently does
47 prefectures. Both countries are seeing
tion's electric-generating capacity
not understand why nuclear
their nuclear consensus crumble.
to accommodate the inexorable
LETTERS
power has been "successful" in
Nicholas Lenssen
Washington
growth in demand. Renewables
some countries and not in others.
Worldwatch Institute
won't contribute much to electrical
The relative openness of political
production, but their contribution will also
systems is a primary reason. France and
be needed. Natural gas and oil should be re-
Japan traditionally have formulated their
served for heating and vehicle fuel.
energy policy by centralized government
Not only is demand increasing, but much
fiat. In contrast, the US has offered a greater
of the existing capacity is worn out, ineffi-
degree of public participation.
cient, or environmentally unsatisfactory and
The economic competition nuclear has
should be replaced by nonpolluting nuclear
had to face in countries such as the US also
plants or advanced-technology coal plants.
led to the abandonment of nuclear power as
R. M. Campbell
Cohasset, Mass.
a new generating option. Such economic
litmus tests have only recently been under-
The article contains the unsubstantiated
taken in other countries. Time and time
assumption that our energy future demands
again nuclear power has been found to be
32
Economic Effects of
Alternative Climate Change Policies
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Prepared by
Center for Strategic & International Studies
Putnam, Hayes & Bartlett, Inc.
International Resources Group
The Brock Group
DRI/McGraw-Hill
January 1991
PREFACE
The purpose of this report is to contribute to informed policy choices on the part of U.S.
decisionmakers. It addresses questions raised in a CSIS report prepared prior to the
1989 G-7 Economic Summit relating to the economic, competitive and foreign policy
implications of policies to address potential global climate change (Implications of Global
Climate Policies, CSIS, June 27, 1989).
The Steering Committee for the study was chaired by Douglas M. Johnston,
Executive Vice President, CSIS, and consisted of Charles J. Cicchetti, Managing Director,
Putnam, Hayes & Bartlett, Inc.; Charles K. Ebinger, Vice President, International
Resources Group, Inc.; Murray Weidenbaum, Director, Center for the Study of American
Business, Washington University, and former Chairman of the President's Council of
Economic Advisors; Stanley W. Legro, Adjunct Fellow, CSIS, and former Assistant
Administrator for Enforcement, EPA; Richard Fairbanks, Partner, Paul, Hastings, Janofsky
& Walker, and former Assistant Director for Energy, Environment and Natural Resources,
Domestic Policy Council; and Henry Schuler, Director, Energy and National Security
Program, CSIS.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies is a public policy research
institute whose mission is to advance the understanding of emerging world issues in the
areas of international security, politics and economics. It does so by providing a
strategic perspective to decisionmakers that is integrative in nature, comprehensive in
scope, anticipatory in its timing and bipartisan in its approach. The Center wishes to
thank the Global Climate Coalition for its support in helping fund this project.
Putnam, Hayes & Bartlett, Inc. is an international economic and management
consulting firm committed to helping clients develop and execute economically sound
strategies. The foundation of PHB's practice is solving client problems through rigorous
use of effective analytical methods and tools.
DRI/McGraw-Hill provides a unique capability for quantitative analysis through the
use of large-scale econometric models, extensive data banks and specialized computer
facilities.
International Resources Group provides diversified planning, design, management
and financing services to industry, government and international agencies.
The Brock Group provides strategic planning services in the areas of domestic and
international political development, international trade and labor-management relations.
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International Resources Group
The Brock Group
DRI/McGraw-Hill
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
INTRODUCTION
Global Climate Change Becomes A
Major Domestic and International Environmental Issue
In a short period of time, global climate change has advanced to the forefront of
environmental issues facing policymakers in the United States and across the world.
Although there is still uncertainty over the precision of scientific forecasts relating to
climate change (particularly regarding the rate, magnitude and geographical distribution of
any changes), many in the scientific community and among the public have come to
believe that rising emissions of so-called greenhouse gases (GHGs) will lead to an
increase in global temperatures.¹ Some consider near-term action to reduce GHG
emissions a hedge against the potential impacts of climate change, which could include
sea-level rise and increased frequency of storms and droughts. Others believe that too
much uncertainty exists to warrant action at this time. There is also concern about the
lack of analysis of the economic effects of proposed policy options. While the debate
continues, many industrialized countries have proposed steps to limit future GHG
emissions, and international negotiations have been initiated to pursue a multilateral
response with respect to global emissions.
Because of this heightened concern and the momentum of international activity,
the United States finds itself under pressure from both domestic constituencies and other
countries to accelerate the development and implementation of policies to reduce GHG
emissions. Toward this end, U.S. policymakers are considering numerous proposals for
independent U.S. action. Some members of Congress as well as environmental groups
1
The greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide, chloroflourocarbons (CFCs), methane, nitrous oxide,
ozone and other trace gases.
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and others are urging the United States to undertake rapid reductions in the near term.
Senators Wirth (S. 324) and Gore (S. 201) and Congresswoman Schneider (H.R. 1078)
introduced comprehensive "omnibus" proposals during the 101st Congress. Each of the
original Wirth and Schneider proposals would have established a U.S. carbon dioxide
emissions reduction goal of 20 percent by the year 2000. Other congressional bills have
offered less comprehensive proposals. A few individual states are also proposing action.
The United States is also being challenged to adopt substantial climate change
policies on a unilateral basis as a means of facilitating international cooperation on this
issue. Many industrialized countries have already adopted provisional reduction targets
for carbon dioxide. While most of these countries have opted for stabilization of carbon
dioxide emissions over the coming decade, some have sought more substantial reductions
(e.g., Germany has aimed for a 25 percent reduction by the year 2005). Despite the
variance in these goals, many in the United States and elsewhere argue that the U.S.
should assume a leadership role with respect to the international process, and take
commensurate actions.
Need for Economic Analysis
To date, discussion in the United States has focused primarily on the character of the
threat and the benefits and uncertainties of reducing GHG emissions. As yet, very little
quantitative economic analysis has been undertaken examining the effect of
comprehensive U.S. action, such as that reflected in omnibus bills that have been
offered;2 therefore, there lacks a substantive foundation upon which policymakers can
base their assessment of the potential domestic and international consequences of such
action.
To help fill this need, this study quantitatively assesses the economic costs and
emissions benefits of two climate change policy scenarios, each comprised of a broad
range of policy options that are being proposed, including energy conservation, fuel
switching, CFC reduction and reforestation. The study also examines some issues
raised by the economic analysis with regard to the economic and political implications
of undertaking additional U.S. greenhouse policies in advance of a multilateral agreement.
The study does not draw policy conclusions nor provide a basis for evaluating
individual policies. It was beyond the scope of this study to validate the technical
feasibility of any proposed policy options. Rather, it is designed to assist
policymakers in drawing conclusions concerning the appropriate balance between risks,
costs and potential GHG emission reduction benefits.
2
Some analysis of this type is currently underway at both the Department of Energy and the
Environmental Protection Agency, but has yet to be completed or released for public comment
and review.
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ii
The study simulates economic and emissions effects using the DRI U.S. Quarterly
Macroeconomic Model, the DRI U.S. Energy Model, and additional models and data
provided by members of the study team. The study assumes a Federal Reserve
monetary accommodation that dampens the short-term economic effect of the policies in
response to changes in inflation and employment.
SCENARIOS REPRESENT LOW
AND HIGH LEVELS OF INTERVENTION
The study team collected and analyzed two groups of policy options that represent
comprehensive near-term U.S. action. Sources for initial consideration included state and
federal legislative proposals, and reports from federal agencies and nonprofit environmental
organizations. Except where otherwise noted, the study team selected policy options as
originally proposed by their sponsors. An initial list of over 200 policy options was
narrowed to about 20 proposals based on representativeness, the potential for significant
GHG reductions and the existence of implementation details. The proposals selected for
analysis fell into one of seven categories:
Domestic reforestation programs.
End-use conservation and energy efficiency programs.
Transportation efficiency standards.
Alternative electric power generation.
Alternative transportation fuels.
Programs to phase-out CFCs.
Carbon taxes on fossil fuels.
The selection of specific policies for inclusion in the two scenarios was made on the
basis of comparative cost-effectiveness analysis, as defined by cost per ton of cumulative
carbon emissions equivalent removed. The policies that resulted in a lower cost per ton
of GHG reduction and half of the aggregate reductions in GHG emissions are in
Scenario 1. Scenario 2 includes most of the policies incorporated in Scenario 1, as well
as more stringent CFC reductions and CAFE standards and several additional policies.
Table ES-1 summarizes the two scenarios.
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Table ES-1
POLICY ACTIONS FOR SCENARIOS 1 AND 2
Policy Action
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Domestic Reforestation Programs
Subsidize trees in Conservation
Subsidize trees in Conservation
Reserve
Reserve
End below-cost timber sales
End below-cost timber sales
Plant one billion trees per year
Plant one billion trees per year
(volunteer program)
(volunteer program)
Programs to Phase Out CFCs
Phase out CFCs by 2000
Phase out CFCs by 1995
Ban methyl chloroform by 2000
Ban methyl chloroform by 2000
Freeze HCFCs by 2015
Freeze HCFCs by 2015
End-use Conservation and Energy
Lamp and bulb efficiency standards
Lamp and bulb efficiency standards
Efficiency Programs
Amend PURPA to add Qualifying
Amend PURPA to add Qualifying
Conservation Entities
Conservation Entities
Standard requiring 60% improvement
Standard requiring 60% improvement
over 1986 appliance efficiency by
over 1986 appliance efficiency by
2000
2000
Stricter building codes by 1992
Transportation Efficiency Standards
40% CAFE increase by 2000 (cars
65% CAFE increase by 2000 (cars
and light trucks)
and light trucks)
Gas guzzler taxes and gas sipper
Gas guzzler taxes and gas sipper
rebates
rebates
50 cents/gallon gasoline tax
50 cents/gallon gasoline tax
Alternative Transportation Fuels
Subsidize CNG buses
Subsidize CNG buses
Railroad electrification
Ethanol/methanol subsidies
Alternative Electric Power
Include externalities in rate
Include externalities in rate
Generation
proceedings for new plants
proceedings for new plants
Increase coal-fired plant turnover rate
Dispatch taking into account
externalities
The policies in Scenario 1 are: reforestation programs and a proposal to end
below-cost timber sales from national forests; CFC use phase-out by the year 2000 and
a freeze on HCFC production at 2014 levels, which begins in 2015; energy end-use
efficiency standards; increased CAFE standards; gas guzzler taxes and gas sipper
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iv
rebates; an additional tax on gasoline and subsidies for compressed natural gas vehicles;
and alternative power generation programs.
Scenario 2 includes the policies of Scenario 1 with the exception that CFCs are
phased out in 1995 instead of 2000. In addition, Scenario 2 examines the
implementation of stricter building codes to save energy. Transportation policies include
CAFE standards stricter than in Scenario 1, electrification of railroads, and subsidized
biomass-derived ethanol/methanol fuels. Finally, Scenario 2 includes additional power
generation programs that incorporate the retirement of coal-fired electricity generation
plants and that require utilities to incorporate assumed environmental externality costs into
electric power dispatch.
RESULTS SUGGEST PROPOSED POLICIES MAY ONLY BE PARTIALLY EFFECTIVE
Base Case Reflects Average Annual Economic Growth of
2.1 Percent and Emissions Increase of 7 Percent by 2010
Interpretation of the economic effects of the selected policy options is only meaningful
when compared against a base case simulation that represents current expectations. The
study team chose a base case that closely parallels the DRI Spring 1990 U.S. Energy
Review and a corresponding U.S. Quarterly Macroeconomic simulation.³ Under the base
case, the economy grows at an annual rate of 2.1 percent, energy intensity declines at
1.0 percent per year, and total U.S. GHG emissions (carbon dioxide and CFCs) increase
7 percent by 2010. It should be noted that total GHG emissions decrease slightly
through the end of this century as CFC use decreases, but that total emissions increase
after 2000 as the decline in CFC emissions is offset by increases in carbon dioxide
emissions (see Figure ES-1).
Scenario 1 Reduces GNP by $560 Billion Over 30 Years
And Emissions by 4.3 Percent Over 20 Years
As a result of the policies implemented under Scenario 1, the present value GNP
decreases by $560 billion (1990 dollars) from 1990 to 2020 compared to the base case.
Annual U.S. GHG emissions in 2010 decrease by 4.3 percent below the 1990 base case
levels (see Figure ES-1). Sectoral effects, which are minor, occur primarily in the energy
3
This base case simulation, unlike most others used recently in studying the economic impact of
climate change policies, incorporates the effect of acid rain control legislation as defined by
President Bush's Clean Air Act Amendments, the 1987 Montreal Protocol on substances that
deplete the ozone layer and the further reductions of CFCs resulting from the tax on CFCs
contained in the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1989.
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V
and transportation sectors of the economy.⁴ The results of the simulation relative to
the base case indicate that in Scenario 1:
Annual GHG emissions drop to 4.3 percent below 1990 levels by
the year 2010.
Expenditures on energy decline slightly.
Investment in energy efficiency increases.
Public utility investment declines as a result of lower electricity
demand.
International trade improves due to declining imports as the economy
slows.
Energy intensity of the economy declines by an additional 0.35
percent per year.
The cumulative federal deficit declines to 73 percent of the base
case level by the year 2010.
Scenario 2 Reduces GNP by $840 Billion Over 30 Years
And Emissions by 7.2 Percent Over 20 Years
In the Scenario 2 simulation, the additional policies cause present value GNP to decline
$840 billion (1990 dollars) from 1990 to 2020. Annual GHG emissions in 2010 decrease
by 7.2 percent below the 1990 base case level (see Figure ES-1). Thus, the effects
on the economy of Scenario 2 are generally more pronounced than under Scenario 1.
The most significant departure from Scenario 1 is that coal production drops steeply as
a result of the new electric power generation programs.
On the basis of incremental cost (1990 present value GNP reduction) per ton
(cumulative emissions reduction), Scenario 2 costs about 11 percent more per ton of
avoided emissions than Scenario 1. Because GNP does not represent an accurate
measure of social cost, the incremental cost per ton is likely to understate the increased
cost. To summarize, the results of the simulation, relative to the base case, indicate
that in Scenario 2:
4
The finding that sectoral effects for the transportation industry are relatively minor may depend
on assumptions made in modeling the effects of higher CAFE standards -- in particular, the
assumption that the effect of higher vehicle prices on consumer demand will be fully offset by
a perceived increase in vehicle quality. For details of the assumptions, see Appendix C, pp.
8 and 9.
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vi
study by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has concluded that a tax as high as
$100 per ton of carbon would fall short of stated goals.⁵ Our preliminary analysis of
a similar carbon tax has yielded comparable results, particularly regarding economic
impact.
In addition, the scenarios evaluated in this report have little effect on the price
of fossil energy. Policies appear to provide few additional market incentives for the
development of long-term alternatives to fossil fuels (the gasoline tax is an exception
among those specific policy options evaluated).
The year-by-year absolute GNP reduction caused by the climate change policies
could exceed the expected cost of the Clean Air Act amendments of 1990. Real GNP,
discounted at 5 percent, decreases by about $37 billion per year (1990 dollars) on an
annualized basis for Scenario 1 and by about $55 billion per year (1990 dollars) for
Scenario 2. By comparison, the cost of amendments to the Clean Air Act are projected
by the Administration to be less than $22 billion per year.
The incremental emissions reductions obtained with the additional policies in
Scenario 2 appear to be more costly than Scenario 1. This suggests the importance
of weighing the policy alternatives on a cost-effectiveness basis. Employing a cost-
effectiveness standard for constructing a package of policy options can provide a basis
for selecting policies that rely upon the most efficient delivery methods. In particular,
market-based incentives should be investigated. Pricing signals transmitted by market
mechanisms rather than by command/control mechanisms are likely to be more efficient
in reducing global emissions.
PROPOSED U.S. POLICIES
HAVE INTERNATIONAL IMPLICATIONS
Although no in-depth evaluation was undertaken of the international economic and political
implications of policies such as those modeled here, the results do raise issues relevant
to the U.S. position in negotiations over an international response to global climate
change.
Unilateral U.S. Action Would Not Reduce
Global Emissions Significantly
One argument for unilateral U.S. action is that because of the large contribution of U.S.
GHG emissions to global emissions, such action is warranted in and of itself. Under
this study's base case analysis, the U.S. contribution to world carbon dioxide and CFC
emissions declines from 20 percent in 1990 to 18 percent in 2010 (the U.S. contribution
5
Congressional Budget Office, Carbon Charges as a Response to Global Warming: The Effects
of Taxing Fossil Fuels, August 1990.
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Annual GHG emissions drop by 7.2 percent below 1990 levels by
the year 2010.
Energy costs increase significantly.
Coal production declines dramatically.
The energy intensity of the economy declines by an additional 0.33
percent per year from the base case.
The cumulative federal deficit increases to 59 percent over the base
case level by 2010.
Figure ES-1
U.S. Emissions of Greenhouse Gases
Carbon Dioxide and CFC Emissions
2.5
Base Case
Billion Tons of Equivalent Carbon
2.0
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
1.5
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
Neither Set of Policies Achieves a
20 Percent Carbon Dioxide Reduction Goal
Neither Scenario 1 nor Scenario 2 achieves the 20 percent carbon dioxide reduction goal
stated in omnibus legislation, although virtually all options likely to result in near-term
emissions reductions are represented in either Scenario 1 or 2. That is, omnibus
legislation does not adequately address how to reduce or even stabilize carbon dioxide
emissions at current levels. It is likely that a carbon tax would also fail to achieve
reduction goals. Although neither Scenario 1 nor 2 contains a carbon tax, a recent
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vii
to carbon dioxide emissions remains constant at 19 percent in 1990 and 2010). U.S.
action alone would not significantly change this trend. Enacting comprehensive policies
within the United States will only slightly reduce the U.S. contribution to world emissions
from the base case: the cumulative reduction by 2010 in global emissions versus the
base case is 0.9 percent in Scenario 1 and 1.1 percent in Scenario 2. Furthermore,
this emissions impact could be reduced were U.S. reductions to be offset by an increase
in emissions elsewhere in the world (such as might be caused by migration of production
offshore to avoid the costs of environmental regulations).
U.S. Participation Will Help
Facilitate a Multilateral Approach but Unilateral
Action Involves Significant Risks and Uncertainties
A stronger case for unilateral actions by the United States is made by those who point
to the political benefits resulting from a strong demonstration of the U.S. commitment to
the international process. Although a range of actions are potentially available to
demonstrate such a commitment, many feel the United States should play a leadership
role by significantly reducing U.S. GHG emissions. This would be especially critical, it
is argued, to securing the participation of the developing countries. Furthermore, the
goal adopted by the United States and the policies that are selected could also set an
important example internationally.
Although diplomatic benefits could accrue from any action taken by the United
States, the results of this study suggest that the United States incurs a significant
economic risk if it undertakes comprehensive actions in advance of an agreement that
outlines the scope of any international initiative. This risk could be compounded by
economic and political factors that might complicate the progress of multilateral
negotiations. First, other countries have not proceeded far beyond the stage of making
commitments to GHG reduction targets. Economic analysis to date has done little to
clarify how expected patterns of energy utilization and economic growth worldwide can
be altered to meet ambitious targets without aggressive government intervention. Second,
international agreements will also depend on parallel commitments to action--involving
matters such as monitoring, legal issues, technology transfer, etc.--as well as goal setting.
In this regard, a host of difficult political and economic issues must still be negotiated.
Finally, arriving at a multilateral consensus on global climate change policies will be
complicated by the sheer number of international players, each with different economic,
political and social agendas.
Multilateral or Bilateral Action
May Offer More Cost-Effective Solutions
Another factor to consider in implementing costly GHG emissions reductions in the United
States in advance of a multilateral agreement, is that more cost-effective options may
be available under a multilateral framework. Emissions reductions in developing countries
may often be less expensive than equivalent reductions in the United States due to the
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low-energy intensity and often unsustainable use of forest resources in these countries.
More research is warranted to determine where such opportunities exist and to quantify
their emissions reduction potential. Capturing these less costly alternatives through
trading of emissions permits or through offsets requires at least a bilateral or multilateral
approach for successful implementation. Hence, if the international community decides
to seek reductions of global GHG emissions, it may make more sense to begin this
process by exploiting low-cost options through an international agreement.
Other U.S. Actions Could Also
Facilitate Multilateral Cooperation
Undertaking major domestic reductions of GHG emissions is not the only way that the
United States could facilitate multilateral cooperation in the near-term. In particular, there
are a number of actions that would be key to any international effort but that do not
carry significant economic risks. These include: initiatives to improve technology transfer
to developing countries; promoting anticipatory private sector involvement; identifying cost-
effective policies, such as international emissions trading, that are viable in the context
of international action; developing regional associations that could study and implement
cost-effective regional response strategies; and targeting foreign aid and assistance at key
areas that reduce or offset GHG emissions, such as energy efficiency improvements and
control of population growth. Such actions have the advantage of addressing the long-
term needs of developing countries, while allowing research and negotiation of scientific
and economic issues to proceed within a flexible framework.
FURTHER TOPICS FOR STUDY
This study is a first step in systematically identifying the costs and effectiveness of GHG
emissions reduction alternatives. However, further economic study is needed before
policymakers can effectively address global climate change concerns. Additional areas
of study include understanding and quantifying the benefits of global climate control
policies, the costs of adaptation policies, the costs to society of GHG emissions, the
costs of GHG reduction alternatives and the policies that can effectively and efficiently
reach emission reduction targets.
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X
EPA in the News
THE WASHINGTON POST
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 22, 1991 A23
Jessica Mathews
Talk About a New World Order!
Implications of the new science of geophysiology.
Charles Darwin wrote in his autobiography
the sun, have changed dramatically. Yet physi-
peak of creation, but Gaia would likely force
"I rejoice that I have avoided controversies."
cal conditions such as climate, the salinity of the
us all to discard that sense of separateness.
So much for informed prediction.
oceans and the composition of gases in the
As powerful as modern technology makes us,
Forewarned, I nevertheless offer another.
atmosphere have stayed within narrow ranges
our one species (among perhaps 10 million)
The revolutionary sciences of our time, just as
conducive to life. According to Gaia, this re-
looks, in a Gaian perspective, like a small cog
astronomy was in the 16th Century century and
markable stability, which leaves Earth still the
in a very large machine.
physics has been in the 20th, will be ecology and
sole spot in the universe known to support life,
Moreover, the machine may be far more
the study of Earth as a living whole.
is because of life's self-regulating mechanisms.
intricate than we have dreamed. Whether this
One could see the signs a few months ago
These mechanisms are akin to those of the
would make it more or less vulnerable to
when The Economist carried a long story-
body, which maintains a stable internal envi-
human interventions-like species extinction,
sandwiched between reports on the collapse
ronment (a temperature of 98.6 degrees Fah-
greenhouse gas emissions, or large-scale soil
of trade talks and the Persian Gulf crisis-on
renheit, for example), in the face of large
erosion-is unpredictable, but a greater sense
the subject of Gaia. Gaia was the ancient
external changes. Such responses require no
of caution might well seem warranted. Ulti-
Greek Earth goddess. It is also the name
conscious intervention, for they are built in. The
mately, Gaia could force a transforming shift
given by British scientist James Lovelock and
study of such systems in the body is physiology,
from a narrow conception of the welfare of our
his American collaborator, microbiologist
a science that perforce looks at whole systems,
own species to an overriding concern for that
Lynn Margulis, to a theory that sees Earth as
not pieces. Hence the right approach to the
of the planet as a whole.
a living system in which the nonliving realm is
study of Earth, according to Lovelock and
continuously shaped by the presence of life.
Margulis is the new science of geophysiology.
The writer, vice president of World
Not just species evolve in the Gaian view
Until a few years ago, the word geophysiol-
Resources Institute, writes this column
but species and their living and nonliving
ogy would have been dismissed as a contra-
independently for The Post.
environment together. The theory's most con-
diction in terms, an incomprehensible jumble of
troversial postulate is that life actively influ-
rocks and living systems. But in the last few
ences the physical environment in order to
years, Gaia has moved from crackpot to main-
maintain conditions favorable to itself. Thus
stream science. There is still fervid debate,
the apparent planning and sense of purpose
and Gaia's supporters are a minority, but the
that Darwinian natural selection produces—
best single indicator of the power of a new idea
and which has always been so hard to grasp—
in science is that it opens up new areas of
is broadened to include the entire planet.
research, and this Gaia is unquestionably do-
To Lovelock, Earth's living and nonliving
ing. Moreover, research published two weeks
matter are not as distinct as they seem.
ago revealed experimental evidence of one of
Consider, he says, a mature tree. When it is
the theory's major predictions. This is a cli-
alive, nearly all of it is
mate-regulating mechanism involving plankton
dead. It is a vast mass of
in the sea, a sulfur gas the plankton emit and
dead wood surrounded by
clouds that form around the sulfur, cool the
a thin living skin that is in
climate and thereby depress plankton growth.
turn protected by another
dead layer, the bark. "The
Whether or not the Gaia theory proves
Earth is very much like
correct in its present form, it has changed the
that; you have the middle,
course of science not only by spawning new
molten, dead, that
kinds of research but by changing the way
same thin skin of living
people think-even those who think the theo-
tissue and beyond it the
ry is wrong. The traditional view of life as
atmosphere which is just
something that passively adapts itself to an
like a bark of a tree, there-
externally imposed physical environment is
fore not formally alive
giving way to a recognition of closer coupling
but still a protective layer
between the living and nonliving realms.
against the rigours of the
Gaia's most important implications, howev-
environment, which for
er, reach far beyond science. If it is in the
the Earth is space."
main correct (still a big if) it would, I think,
Gaia also means that the
demolish the prevailing world view that hu-
reductionist approach of
mankind is not only above but separate from
most of modern science-
nature. That view is embedded in economics,
breaking down systems into
law and political science as well as in most of
smaller and smaller parts
and studying each one by one-cannot reveal
the major religions, which teach that we are
what has happened on this planet since life
to exercise dominion over nature, which ex-
began 3.8 billion years ago. During these years
ists largely to serve our purposes.
external conditions, especially the intensity of
Those whose faith leads them in that direc-
'tion could continue to view humanity as the
EPA in the New
THE NEW YORK TIMES, FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 22, 1991) DI
A Disappointing Deal for Browning
By BARNABY J. FEDER
second-largest solid-waste disposal
Concord's Second Acquisition
company in the nation after Waste
The Last Chance deal came within
Browning-Ferris Industries had lit-
days after Concord Resources, based
tle to celebrate as it quietly reached a
Management Inc.
in Pittsburgh, had announced its first
preliminary agreement last week to
Browning-Ferris had tripped from
acquisition, the purchase of Stablex, a
one financial setback to another in
sell its state-of-the-art hazardous
small hazardous waste firm in Mont-
waste disposal site 70 miles east of
hazardous waste, damaging its repu-
real.
Denver to the Concord Resources
tation with regulators and environ-
"This is a great time to be buying
Group, a recently formed joint ven-
mental groups. It was never able
hazardous waste assets," said Swep
ture of the Consolidated Rail Corpo-
overcome a history of shoddy opera-
T. Davis, Concord's chief executive,
ration and the OHM Corporation.
tions at landfills it acquired in New
reflecting on the leverage willing
York, Ohio, and Louisiana. When Wil-
Although the price was not dis-
buyers have in a slow market.
liam D. Ruckleshaus, the company's
"From 1984 to 1988, sellers could be
closed, interviews with company ex-
chief executive, decided to retreat
very rigid on bidding specifications,
ecutives and bankers suggest that it
last spring, the company set aside
which sometimes read like ultima-
was 20 percent less than had been
$295 million after taxes to cover the
tums," acknowledged Clay Lifflan-
hoped for when the site was put up for
costs of discontinuing the business.
der, the Smith Barney, Harris Upham
sale last summer. The price was even
slightly under an internal valuation
& Company banker who led the sales
In Last Chance, buyers were being
by Houston-based Browning-Ferris,
effort. "People don't like to feel like
offered the company's one hazardous
which has a reputation for conserva-
they are in an auction today. It's
waste jewel. "I think they basically
tive accounting.
more like a negotiation."
put it together as well as humanly
The sales process began last June,
The gap between Browning-Fer-
possible," said Tanelle Roberts, the
when thick booklets describing the
ris's dream deal.and the one it finally
engineer overseeing the permit pro-
site were sent to those who had ex-
cess for the Colorado Health Depart-
pressed an interest, along with a
ment.
A top-level
cover letter hinting that Browning-
Moreover, the new owner would be
Ferris would welcome a pre-emptive
taking over at an ideal time, just as
bid. None came. Smith Barney execu-
disposal site brings
the last regulatory reviews were
tives began to realize that while the
completed, wiping away any fear that
site clearly did not have any skele-
a low-level price.
previous operations had created un-
tons in its closet, it also had no record
known perils that could lead to fines,
by which to judge Browning-Ferris's
remediation expenses or closures.
income projections.
Browning-Ferris's expectations
Only potential bidders were al-
struck reflected in part the weak
market for most types of corporate
were also colored by its pride in Last
lowed to see the projections, but there
are some hints about the potential
assets in this recession. But it also
highlighted uncertainties peculiar to
way 36 Treatment Storage and Dis-
profits. At $200 a square yard, a rough
posal Facility. It is the first - and so
industry average price last year, the
environmental businesses, especially
those in fields like hazardous waste
far only new hazardous waste site
site has already been permitted to re-
where the investment demands as
to receive state and Federal operat-
ceive 2.5 million cubic yards of ma-
well as the regulatory and technology
ing permits under new regulations es-
terial, or $500 million worth. And it
risks - are substantial.
tablished by the E.P.A. in 1984. More
has the capacity to receive 7.6 million
Browning-Ferris had reason to be-
than $50 million had been sunk into
more without violating any of its
lieve that it was in an enviable bar-
the site since acquisition of its 5,700
basic operating conditions.
gaining position when it began the
acres began in 1980.
Although it is the only permitted
process of selling its Last Chance
Last Chance is intended to handle a
site in Colorado under the new regula-
site, which takes its nickname from a
variety of liquid and solid wastes, in-
tions and is hundreds of miles from
nearby hamlet. The Environmental
cluding incinerator ash, sludges
its nearest competitor, the problem
produced by other waste treatment
for potential purchasers is calculat-
Protection Agency has called Last
operations, toxic metal plating
ing how much of Last Chance's in-
Chance "the best designed land dis-
sludge, contaminated soil and asbes-
come can be generated locally where
posal site in the nation."
tos. Last Chance will also store and
its competitive advantage is strong-
Moreover, analysts who follow en-
blend oils and organic solvents for
est and how rapidly that demand
vironmental companies say that haz-
might build.
ardous waste disposal, currently a $3
use in incinerators or for recycling.
billion to $4 billion business, may be
Materials to be sent to the site must
Several Shortcomings
the most lucrative segment of the
be pre-tested at a laboratory in Den-
Industry experts said Last Chance
waste management industry over the
ver and can only be accepted if they
has several potential shortcomings. It
next 20 years. The basic reason: As
come in a scheduled delivery. They
is a long way from the nearest rail
also will be retested at the site. All
line, meaning that its waste will come
new regulations continue to expand
the range of materials classified as
wastes to be buried will be solidified.
from relatively long-distance truck
hazardous waste, the number of legal
The permit calls for disposal in four-
runs. Moreover, several of the largest
disposal sites is declining.
acre cells that are 40 feet deep, lined
Despite such prospects, Browning-
with alternating layers of plastic and
Ferris decided last April to bail out of
compacted clay and ringed with leak
the hazardous waste business and
detectors. The site has also been
sculpted and managed to control
concentrate on solid waste disposal
rainwater.
and recycling. Browning-Ferris is the
that hearing, Stuart Eizenstat, who was a former director of Domestic Policy under President Jimmy
Carter when the original CAFE law went into effect, said he still believes "CAFE standards are the
most effective available policy for slowing the growth of oil consumption and oil imports."
He disputed the administration's principal argument against CAFE standards, which is that mar-
ket forces should be permitted to determine how much consumers want to invest in fuel efficiency.
The market, he said, "is imperfect because of the 'externalities' involved in the use of inefficient
vehicles."
He maintained that market forces alone would not have produced a doubling of new car fuel
efficiency between 1975 and 1985, and pointed out that without escalating CAFE standards, actual
fuel economy has declined since model year 1986.
Addressing the safety issue, he said, "I believe that improved fuel efficiency can be achieved
without detrimental effects on vehicle safety by using air bags and other safety technologies."
STUDY PUTS ANNUAL COST OF LIMITING GREENHOUSE GASES AT $55 BILLION
A comprehensive policy designed to limit U.S. emissions of greenhouse gases could cost the
economy as much as $55 billion a year, a new report from the Center for Strategic & International
Studies has found.
The study, which was presented earlier this month to the American delegation at the Intergovern-
mental Negotiating Committee for a Framework on Climate Change in Chantilly, Va., is based on
two groups of policy options culled from state and federal legislative proposals and reports from
federal agencies and nonprofit environmental organizations.
Options contained in the two scenarios for comprehensive U.S. action over the next 30 years
include domestic reforestation programs, end-use conservation and energy efficiency programs,
transportation efficiency standards, alternative electric power generation, alternative transportation
fuels, programs to phase-out CFCs and carbon taxes on fossil fuels.
Both scenarios were compared with a base case that assumed the domestic economy would grow
at an annual rate of 2.1%, that energy intensity declines by 1% a year and that total U.S. greenhouse
gases (carbon dioxide and CFCs) increase.
Under the first scenario, which includes reforestation programs, a proposal to end below-cost
timber sales from national forests, a phase out of CFC use by the year 2000, a freeze on HCFC pro-
duction at 2014 levels, energy end-use efficiency standards, increased corporate average fuel econo-
my standards, gas guzzler taxes, an additional tax on gasoline and subsidies for compressed natural
gas vehicles, the CSIS report concludes that present value GNP would decrease by $560 billion from
1990 to 2020 compared with the base case.
Scenario 1 actions, the report says, would result in a 4.3% reduction in greenhouse gases below
the 1990 base case levels.
The study also concludes that if the policy options contained in the scenarios were adopted,
investment in energy efficiency would increase, public utility investment would decline due to lower
demand, international trade would improve through a slow down in imports, energy intensity of the
economy would fall by an additional 0.35% a year and the cumulative federal deficit would fall to
73% of the base case by 2010.
Under the more stringent options contained in Scenario 2, including a CFC phase out in 1995,
stricter CAFE standards than those endorsed under the first scenario, electrification of railroads, sub-
sidies for biomass-derived ethanol-methanol fuels and additional retirement of coal-fired power
plants, present value GNP would decline by $840 billion by 2020 and annual greenhouse gas emis-
sions would fall by 7.2% below the base case levels.
Policies adopted under Scenario 2 would, CSIS says, increase energy costs "significantly" and
force an additional 0.33% decline in U.S. energy intensity from base case levels. The options would
also result in an increase in the cumulative federal deficit by 59% over the base case by 2010.
"Neither Scenario 1 nor Scenario 2 achieves the 20 percent carbon dioxide reduction goal stated
in omnibus legislation, although virtually all options likely to result in near-term emissions reduction
are represented in either Scenario 1 or 2," the report says.
Further, the study says that even a carbon tax an action that is not included in either of the two
scenarios - would likely not enable the U.S. to achieve the 20% target.
"One argument for unilateral U.S. action is that because of the large contribution of U.S. [green-
house gas] emissions to global emissions, such action is warranted in and of itself. Under this study's
base case analysis, the U.S. contribution to world carbon dioxide and CFC emissions declines from
INSIDE ENERGY/with FEDERAL LANDS - February 25, 1991
3
20 percent in 1990 to 18 percent in 2010 (the U.S. contribution to carbon dioxide emissions remains
constant at 19 percent in 1990 and 2010)."
"U.S. action alone would not significantly change this trend. Enacting comprehensive policies
within the United States will only slightly reduce the U.S. contribution to world emissions from the
base case: the cumulative reduction by 2010 in global emissions versus the base case is 0.9 percent in
Scenario 1 and 1.1 percent in Scenario 2. Furthermore, this emissions impact could be reduced were
U.S. reductions to be offset by an increase in emissions elsewhere in the world (such as might be
caused by a migration of production offshore to avoid the costs of environmental regulations)," the
study says.
The report suggests that more cost-effective options to enacting legislation may be available to
the United States under a multilateral agreement. "Emissions reductions in developing countries may
often be less expensive than equivalent reductions in the United States due to the low-energy intensi-
ty and often unsustainable use of forest resources in these countries. More research is warranted to
determine where such opportunities exist and to quantify their emissions reduction potential."
LAWMAKERS DETECT LITTLE IN STRATEGY TO ADDRESS GLOBAL WARMING
Congressional Democrats charged that the proposed national energy strategy would do little, if
anything, to address the global warming issue, while renewing their accusations that the Bush admin-
istration is foot-dragging on actions to stabilize emissions of greenhouse gases.
At a hearing before House Energy subcommittee on health and the environment, Democrats
charged that the strategy, with its heavy reliance on increasing production of fossil fuels, could actu-
ally exacerbate carbon dioxide emissions. Rep. Gerry Sikorski, D-Minn., pointed out that the strategy
would not require use of energy efficient lighting, mandates tough efficiency standards only for about
one-fifth of all new buildings, includes no efficiency standards for electric motors, and lacks corpo-
rate average fuel economy standards for new vehicles. Each of those measures, he said, would have
resulted in substantial reductions of energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions.
But Mark Kerrigan, DOE's associate deputy under secretary for policy, planning and analysis,
insisted that the strategy would significantly decrease fossil fuel use compared to what otherwise
would have been used. He said enactment of NES would result in "reducing the rate of growth" in
carbon dioxide emissions and stabilizing carbon dioxide levels at or below current levels by the year
2030.
That did not satisfy panel Democrats, who pointed to much stronger commitments made by some
of the world's other industrialized nations, including the European Community. Sen. Al Gore, D-
Tenn., a persistent critic of White House global warming policies, who was invited to testify before
the committee, called this month's pledge by the U.S. to stabilize emissions of greenhouse gases in
the year 2000 "a total sham," and an "insult to the intelligence" of those reading the plan. But even
Gore acknowledged that the pledge, made during a meeting of the Intergovernmental Negotiating
Committee for a Framework Convention on Climate Change (INC) earlier this month in Chantilly,
Va., represented a "change in tone" for the administration.
Gore called the new administration policy "smoke and mirrors" because it counts the
phasing out of chlorofluorocarbons that was agreed to by most nations in 1987. That document,
known as the Montreal Protocol, calls for the elimination of CFCs, which are potent greenhouse
gases, by 2000. The elimination of CFCs in that year will result in a dramatic decline in emissions of
total greenhouse gases, even as the amount of carbon dioxide - the chief culprit in global warming
- released to the atmosphere continues to rise.
Defending the administration statement, Robert Reinstein, deputy assistant secretary of state for
environment, health and natural resources, said the fact the administration cut CFCs in response to
another agreement did not mean that those cuts should not count.
Panel Democrats focused their criticism on the refusal of the administration so far to pledge any
significant near-term reduction in carbon dioxide emissions, the chief culprit among greenhouse
gases.
"By the administration's own reckoning, the policies that we will hear described today allow
carbon dioxide emissions to rise by 15% by 2000," said subcommittee chairman Henry Waxman, D-
Calif. "In other words we are moving in exactly the wrong direction - - we are increasing, not de-
creasing, carbon dioxide emissions."
"This plan is a major embarrassment," said Rep. Peter Kostmayer, D-Pa.
According to Reinstein, the U.S. has avoided pledges similar to those made by the European
4
INSIDE ENERGY/with FEDERAL LANDS February 25, 1991
MAR 21
The New York Times
Some Scientists See No Danger in a
Decade's Delay in Curbs on Warming
B9
United States emissions of heat-trap-
Are Factors Overlooked?
By WILLIAM K. STEVENS
ping gases from increasing for the next
Other climatologists said that while
A 10-year delay in taking action to
decade.
curb global warming would mean little
the finding might be correct so far as it
But Senator Al Gore, the Tennessee
further increase in the level of warm-
goes it overlooks several important
Democrat who has strongly opposed
ing predicted by the end of the next
factors. Some scientists say that the
the Administration's position, said in a
century, according to calculations by
expected global warming may well
statement, "The longer we wait, the
scientists who advise a United Nations
proceed not gradually, as the Schles-
harder the necessary actions become."
panel dealing with climate change.
inger calculations assume, but un-
He said delay would be "irresponsible"
evenly, with sudden spurts in tempera-
Controls deferred for a decade would
given the "potential for disastrous con-
ture as climatic thresholds are
achieve 95 percent of the reduction in
sequences."
reached. This possibility of sudden
warming by the year 2100 that would
Dr. Schlesinger's group at Illinois,
change makes it dangerous to wait,
be achieved by imposing the controls
using a computerized mathematical
said Dr. James E. Hansen, a climatolo-
immediately, the scientists say in a
model of the climate system, made the
gist at the Goddard Institute for Space
study appearing today in the British
projections of future global warming
Studies in New York.
journal Nature.
adopted last year by the Intergovern-
The results suggest that "the ur-
mental Panel on Climate Change. This
Dr. Michael Oppenheimer of the En-
gency is probably somewhat less than
is a United Nations-sponsored group
vironmental Defense Fund agreed.
that is providing scientific advice for
Moreover, both he and Dr. Hansen said,
some people have tended to make it ap-
pear," said Dr. Michael E. Schlesinger,
continuing international negotiations
delay would make it more difficult and
a climatologist at the University of Illi-
on a global warming treaty. The Illi-
expensive to institute controls on heat-,
nois at Urbana-Champaign. He is the
nois researchers calculated that if no
trapping gases if, after 10 years, they
steps were taken to limit emissions of
were deemed necessary.
author of the study along with another
carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping
It may be true, Dr. Oppenheimer
researcher at the university, Xingjian
said, that the amount of heat-trapping
Jiang. The authors said a delay would
gases the average surface tempera-
gases emitted during a 10-year delay
ture of the globe would rise by 4 to 9 de-
give scientists time to pursue a "crash
grees Fahrenheit by the year 2100.
would result in little extra warming,
program" of research to reduce uncer-
But, he said, there has not been much
In the study being published today,
tainties about the severity of the ex-
pected warming.
they greatly broaden the possible
argument about this. "When people
range of warming expected by 2100 if
have argued about delay," he said,
Scientists Are Divided
no action is taken, placing it at 1.6 to
"they have never made a big deal
about what its impact is on the climate.
10.6 degrees. Much of the difference is
Certain atmospheric gases, chiefly
accounted for by a lower assessment of
They have said that the more you
carbon dioxide, trap heat from the sun,
the climate's sensitivity to heat-trap-
delay, it's going to be that much tough-
er" to reduce emissions.
much as a greenhouse does. Concentra-
ping gases. That assessment was made
tions of the gases are steadily growing,
by Dr. Richard Lindzen, a meteorolo-
As more gases are allowed to build
mostly as the result of industrial and
gist at the Massachusetts Institute of
up, he said, more stringent measures
motor vehicle emissions. Scientists say
Technology, who has argued that the
than originally envisioned would be.
this could cause the earth's surface
global warming threat is exaggerated.
necessary to bring about even 95 per-
temperature to increase by more than
The calculations being reported to-
cent of the reduction in warming than
5 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the
day are also based on a mathematical
would be achieved if controls began
next century, with catastrophic effects
model. They indicate that whatever the
now. This, he said, is because the build.
on climate, crops, ecosystems and sea
degree of warming efforts to reduce it
up of gases would make it more diffi-
levels.
would be little handicapped by a 10-
cult to rein in the rate of warming.
Some scientists supported the find-
year delay in instituting controls,
Mr. Reilly said that it was "conceiv.
ing being reported today. Others, while
which would include such measures as
able" that improving technology could
acknowledging that it may be accurate
reducing the burning of fossil fuels like
make it easier to reduce emissions in
so far as it went, said that the finding
coal and oil. The scientists assumed it
the future. He also said that the cer-
failed to take account of a number of
would take 20 years to phase in the con-
tainty about warming that would come
factors, and that using it as a guide to
trols whether they were imposed now
from more research would be useful in
policy could be dangerous.
or a decade from now.
overcoming the skepticism of some un-
The finding appears to support the
The results, the study report said, in-
developed countries about the need for
dicate that "the penalty is small" for a
controls.
Bush Administration's position that
"it's better to get it right than to act
10-year delay.
"I think it has to be reckoned as rea-
precipitously," especially when the
cost of action is high, said William K.
sonable," Dr. Lindzen.
Reilly, Administrator of the Environ-
mental Protection Agency.
The Administration also believes re-
search should proceed in tandem with
"action that is justified for other com-
mon-sense reasons" in addition to
global warming, said Michael Deland,
the chairman of the White House Coun-
cil on Environmental Quality. The
21
White House maintains that environ-
mental actions already taken will keep
The Washington Post MAR 21 1991
Gas Tax Defeat Will Not End
Md. Road Work, Mitchell Says
By Richard Tapscott
ing that may proceed while $78.4
Washington Post Staff Writer
C4
million could be delayed.
Mitchell said the figures were
ANNAPOLIS, March 20-Since
produced by the Transportation
January, Maryland Gov. William
Department at his request early
Donald Schaefer and state transpor-
this month. The document lists "po-
tation officials have warned that
tential project deferrals" for each
road construction would be halted
county, but also lists projects that
for two years unless the General
could go forward. The department
Assembly approved a gasoline tax
will have to decide how much of its
increase.
current plan can continue and has
On Tuesday, as a House commit-
the ability to postpone projects to
tee unanimously voted down Schae-
match expected revenue.
fer's tax plan to finance $1.5 billion
On Jan. 7, former transportation
in road and transit programs for the
secretary William K. Hellman said,
next five years, his chief spokesman
"If there's not a revenue increase,
again regretted the loss of two con-
there will be no new projects for 18
struction seasons.
months." Hellman was chairman of a
"If the gas tax goes down, there
are no new roads and bridges for
panel Schaefer appointed to help sell
two years," Schaefer spokesman
the tax increase to the legislature.
Paul E. Schurick said, "This means
Schurick, asked tonight about the
the program will be shut down for
apparent discrepancies, said the
two more years."
construction program would be only
Tonight, House Speaker R. Clay-
half its original size and no new pro-
ton Mitchell Jr. (D-Kent) disputed
jects could be added beyond 1996.
those statements, using figures pro-
"I didn't mean to say there's going
vided by the Department of Trans-
to be absolutely no paving over the
portation. By the department's reck-
next two seasons," Schurick said.
oning, more than half the spending
"It's a fine line, and I see some con-
planned through 1996 still could oc-
fusion. But I stand by my statement
cur, much of it this year and next.
that the program is being halted."
"I got tired of the doom and
Based on documents sent to Mitch-
gloom, that there wasn't going to
ell, some major road projects planned
be any construction," Mitchell said
in the next two seasons are subject to
as he released the figures. "That's
delays, including $37 million for re-
not true."
construction of Route 28 in Mont-
In Prince George's County, for
gomery County and $25.5 million to
example, the department said $98.9
rebuild Route 214 in Prince George's
million in planning, acquisition and
County. However, other projects
construction planned for the next 15
could continue with state or federal
months could go on. About $45.5 mil-
funds, among them widening the Cap-
lion may be deferred. Comparable
ital Beltway from Route 650 to Route
figures for Montgomery County pro-
1 in Prince George's at a cost of
jects showed $27.1 million in spend-
$15.6 million.
22
SCIENTIFIC
AMERICAN
APR
1991
SCIENCE
AND
THE
CITIZEN
Cold Start
other domestic pollution and efficiency
measures will probably reduce or slow
Policies on global warming
the growth in emissions of other pol-
and energy don't move critics
luting gases, such as methane, nitrogen
oxides, volatile organic compounds
and carbon monoxide. Only because of
W
hen delegates from 101 na-
these previously decided actions is the
tions gathered in Chantilly,
Genes for mortality,
U.S. contribution to greenhouse warm-
Va., in February for the first
new neutrino conundrums,
ing expected to remain constant for the
round of negotiations toward an in-
next 10 years-and then only if the
ternational agreement on global warm-
dioxin whitewash,
economy performs as expected. Under
ing, they were presented with what ap-
present policies, total U.S. greenhouse
peared to be a new U.S. initiative. It was
John Sununu up close
gas emissions will start to grow again
a slick color brochure detailing "Ameri-
after the year 2000.
ca's Climate Change Strategy." There
The U.S. negotiators took political
was also word that the Bush adminis-
sions in the year 2000 being "equal
advantage of the new counting method
tration would soon roll out its long-de-
to or below the 1987 level." "No oth-
by successfully opposing moves that
layed national energy policy.
er country in the world, so far as I
would have entailed separate exami-
To some present, it appeared that the
know, can make that claim," bragged
nation of carbon dioxide sources and
administration might finally be moving
President Bush's science adviser, D.
sinks. Advocates of more radical action
toward an integrated strategy on global
Allan Bromley, to a Washington press
to curb greenhouse emissions criticize
warming and energy use. But that first
conference.
the approach. Forty-one senators pro-
impression proved misleading. The cli-
The "strategy," however, is a predic-
posed a resolution taking the adminis-
mate change strategy offered nothing
tion rather than a commitment, and it
tration to task. One of them, Al Gore
new. The U.S. energy policy, which was
hardly represents a policy shift. The
of Tennessee, who has made global
announced in late February, was a di-
U.S. claim that its emissions in the year
warming a personal crusade, called the
rect descendant of Reagan era supply-
2000 will be no greater than in 1987 is
strategy a "dishonest subterfuge."
side economics that barely paid lip ser-
based on a new way of assessing green-
The go-slow approach of the U.S. ne-
vice to energy conservation.
house gas emissions that combines the
gotiators was underscored by a report
In the end, the Intergovernmental
future warming potential of many gas-
from the congressional Office of Tech-
Negotiating Committee had precious
es, not just carbon dioxide.
nology Assessment that was issued
little to show for two weeks' work in
The gases listed in the new index of
during the Chantilly conference. The
Chantilly. Reined in by White House
global warming potential include chlo-
OTA takes issue with the notion that it
Chief of Staff John H. Sununu, U.S. ne-
rofluorocarbons, which are already be-
is impossible to make substantial cuts
gotiators agreed only to the establish-
ing phased out. Over the next decade,
in carbon dioxide emissions without
ment of two working groups: one
sacrificing public comfort and con-
to consider what kind of "appro-
venience. Such cutbacks, Sununu
priate commitments" might be
Results of an Energy Strategy
has argued, reflect an "antigrowth
made to counter warming and one
agenda."
to think about how they might be
The Bush administration projects that its
The OTA concludes that the U.S.
implemented. "They have deter-
energy initiatives will have the following effects,
based on a hypothetical "current policy base."
could within the next 25 years de-
mined only the shape of the nego-
tiating table," complained Michael
These computerized projections, however, in-
crease its emissions of carbon di-
Oppenheimer of the Environmen-
clude changes already mandated by the 1990
oxide by 35 percent from 1987
amendments to the Clean Air Act.
levels without major technological
tal Defense Fund.
breakthroughs. The cost of such a
It was clear before the confer-
INCREASE:
course is uncertain, although the
ence began that progress would
Domestic oil production by 3.8 billion barrels a day
OTA admits it could be as much
be difficult if the U.S., which emits
to 12 million barrels a day by the year 2010.
as 1.8 percent of GNP. But a
20 percent of the greenhouse gas-
Nuclear power generation to 21 percent of installed
more moderate set of options that
es that warm the atmosphere, con-
capacity by 2030, from 20 percent at present,
would limit increases to 15 per-
tinued to oppose cutbacks in emis-
preventing a projected decline in share.
cent over 25 years would probably
sions. Several European countries,
Natural gas consumption by one trillion cubic feet,
save money, the OTA believes. If no
as well as Australia and New Zea-
or 3 percent, by 2000.
special effort is made, in contrast,
land, had previously committed
The share of electricity generated from renewable
the OTA estimates that U.S. carbon
themselves to reducing emissions
resources by 10 percent by 2010.
dioxide emissions will increase 50
of carbon dioxide by 20 percent
REDUCE:
percent by the year 2015.
over the next decade. Meanwhile
Oil imports by 3.4 million barrels a day by 2010.
The technical options that the
Canada and Japan had said they
will only stabilize their emissions.
Total U.S. oil consumption from 22.5 million to
OTA identifies for reducing emis-
The U.S. document simply ex-
19.0 million barrels a day by 2010.
sions include improving gener-
plained that actions the federal
Barrels of oil consumed for each $1 million of
ating efficiency and encouraging
conversion to more carbon-effi-
government has already taken will
gross national product from 2.4 to 2.0 by 2010.
cient fuels such as natural gas, as
result in its greenhouse gas emis-
29
SOURCE U.S. Department of Energy
well as CONTINUED of non-
CONTINUED
SCIENTIFIC
AMERICAN
APR
1991
fossil fuels. Also important would be
consumers and companies to make use
These kinds of recommendations are
increasing energy efficiency by the end-
of the most efficient and least pollut-
glaringly absent from the administra-
user, where the biggest savings would
ing technologies, such measures as tax-
tion's long-awaited energy policy, which
come from better building design and
es, tradable permits, regulations, incen-
carefully sidestepped the term "policy"
more efficient lighting and industrial
tives and information programs would
with the designation "National Ener-
processes. But in order to stimulate
be needed.
gy Strategy:" Almost all the earlier pro-
posed regulations and incentives for
improved fuel efficiency and increased
use of renewable energy were whittled
Tracking the Missing Carbon
out in cabinet and subsequent White
House reviews.
O
ne of the biggest uncertainties about the greenhouse effect is the
Administration officials say such pro-
mystery of the "missing carbon." Fossil-fuel burning adds about six
posals were likened to Carter era leg-
billion tons of carbon to the atmosphere each year in the form of
islation, which is the mark of politi-
carbon dioxide, and deforestation and topsoil erosion may add three billion
cal death in the antiregulatory White
tons more. Yet the amount of extra carbon that appears in the atmosphere
House. (Notably, the $2.5 billion of tax
each year is only 3.5 billion tons. Another 1.5 billion tons dissolve in the
credits the oil industry received last
ocean. The remaining four billion tons vanish without a trace.
year seem to be exempt from such crit-
Some researchers think that trees may be a missing piece of the puzzle.
icism.) One proposal that never made
They cite research showing that forests, stimulated by increasing levels of
it into the energy strategy was a plan
carbon dioxide, could soak up far more carbon than previously predicted.
to increase substantially fuel-efficiency
Last year Pieter P. Tans, a researcher at the National Oceanic and Atmo-
standards for automobiles. Other casu-
spheric Administration, and his colleagues concluded on the basis of com-
alties include mandatory building-effi-
puter models that two or three billion tons of carbon dioxide are disappear-
ciency standards and production incen-
ing into an unknown terrestrial "sink" that lies in northern temperate lati-
tives for renewable energy sources. Al-
tudes. Meanwhile experiments by Boyd Strain, a botanist at Duke University,
though the strategy calls for research
and others have demonstrated a "fertilization effect" of extra carbon diox-
aimed at improving fuel efficiency, no
ide-plants grow faster and remove more of the gas from the atmosphere.
strong incentives are provided.
This effect, acting on forests, could in principle explain the fate of at least
More than anything, the energy strat-
some of the missing carbon. Some experiments have shown that plants
egy reflected the Bush administration's
grow relatively larger root systems when carbon dioxide levels are increased.
foreign policy and a continuing faith
If trees are growing larger roots, researchers would probably not have no-
in supply-side economics. Against the
ticed— weighing a tree's roots is a difficult operation.
promise of a successful campaign in
To test the idea, Richard J. Norby, a botanist at Oak Ridge National Labora-
the Persian Gulf conflict, which sent oil
tory, is growing trees in atmospheres of elevated carbon dioxide with their
prices plunging to near pre-war levels,
roots in the ground (see photograph below). After two years, he reports that
the energy plan called for increased do-
white oaks are showing sustained increased growth with extra carbon diox-
mestic exploration, particularly in the
ide. White poplars respond marginally, but their leaves become smaller, a
Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, and de-
possible compensatory response. Norby has not yet dug up any trees to see
regulation of natural gas pipelines and
whether their roots have grown faster.
electric utilities. The administration
Even if trees are storing missing carbon in their roots, the effect is not like-
contends that domestic energy supplies
ly to affect greatly the pace of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide, says An-
can be increased sufficiently to hold
thony W. King of Oak Ridge. But Tans is more hopeful: "I can be an optimist
imports to 40 to 45 percent of demand
and say, 'Great, nature is helping us here-we might be able to delay climat-
through the year 2010. "Don't kid your-
ic change by growing forests on a large scale."
-Tim Beardsley
self, the war is about energy," declares
Senator J. Bennett Johnston of Louisi-
ana, who is part of a bipartisan coali-
tion sponsoring legislation that would
mandate conservation and efficiency.
The global warming debate is now
going on behind closed doors, until the
delegates meet again in June. Mean-
while the energy policy will be taken
up by a Congress that appears keen to
play a part in the debate. Some 80 bills
have already been put forward that
would make up for the measures delet-
ed by the administration, including a
measure that would increase automo-
tive fuel efficiency to 40 miles per gal-
lon over the next decade.
The debate is likely to be rancor-
ous. As one disgruntled Energy Depart-
ment official put it: "In order to de-
crease reliance on fossil fuels, you ei-
ther have to raise the price of gasoline
or regulate efficiency. What we have is
30
neither."
- Tim Beardsley
SCIENTIFIC
CONTINUED
APR
1991
AMERICAN
the president's New Hampshire prima-
argues that measures to slow emis-
affect the quality of life for billions
ry victory in 1988. His reward was be-
sions of greenhouse gases-such as im-
of people based on something as mar-
ing made national co-chairman of the
proving energy efficiency-should be
ginally contributory as that."
Bush campaign. He was tapped for the
pursued now, even if they incur some
But Sununu's criticisms of the sci-
critical post of chief of staff soon after
short-term cost.
ence behind the concern about glob-
the election victory.
Sununu's basis for skepticism is sim-
al warming do not gloss over the fact
Now in the White House, Sununu
ple: he doesn't trust the computer mod-
that he simply does not like to be told
puts in 13-hour workdays. And he
els used to predict climatic change.
what to do. Commenting on the Chan-
clearly believes that his technical back-
"What I have a problem with is the mis-
tilly conference, Sununu says: "Every-
ground is an important asset in Wash-
represent-" Sununu stops and cor-
one seems to want to come over here
ington. In 1989 he told a meeting of
rects himself. "-the gloom-and-doom
and tell us what they would like us to
the National Academy of Engineering
approach to this that a lot of people
do. We're saying, we've done a great
that scientists and engineers-people
have taken, based on some very pre-
deal, for a lot of different reasons. The
who have a feel for problem solving
liminary analysis and modeling. They
net impact was positive-go home and
and who "know the difference between
take models that are primarily two-
do it."
a part per million and a part per bil-
dimensional across the surface of the
When questioned about the ad-
lion"-have a public duty to become ac-
earth and try to use them to charac-
ministration's insistence on more re-
tive in policy-making.
terize phenomena that are primar-
search before taking deliberate steps to
Nowhere has he more zealously ap-
ily driven by interactions in a vertical
limit global warming, Sununu snaps
plied his engineer's worldview to poli-
direction."
that "we have put our money where
tics than on the issue of global warm-
His distrust of models, Sununu says,
our mouth is." He claims the U.S. has
ing. During the recent
put $1 billion into climat-
opening round of negoti-
ic change research to en-
ations toward an interna-
sure that "whatever we
tional convention on cli-
do is done intelligently."
matic change in Chantil-
Nevertheless, a well-
ly, Va., Sununu and his
publicized recent report
staff kept U.S. negotiators
written by Nobel laureate
on a tight leash, moni-
Leon M. Lederman, now
toring developments by
president of the Ameri-
telephone. Observers say
can Association for the
it was Sununu who de-
Advancement of Science,
manded that the word
argues that dramatic in-
"appropriate" be inserted
creases in support are
into the conference's fi-
necessary to avoid dam-
nal declaration on negoti-
aging the scientific re-
ating emission limits for
search enterprise. Asked
carbon dioxide and other
for his reaction, Sununu
greenhouse gases.
responds: "I don't know
Sununu insists he un-
who Leon Lederman is."
derstands scientists' con-
Instead he points out that
cerns on the question and
the $76 billion request-
is not opposed to lower-
ed in the 1992 federal
ing carbon dioxide emis-
budget for research and
sions "as a matter of self-
development-$8 billion
discipline." But he is ada-
more than this year-rep-
mant that the science of
resents a "tremendous
climate prediction is not developed well
comes from personal experience. (A
targeting of resources" aimed at nur-
enough to take actions that might cause
persistent rumor maintains that he has
turing the "fundamental strength we
economic pain.
a simple climate model that he runs on
have in science and technology."
Yet his desire not to burden industry
his personal computer. The models
Sununu offers no apologies for his
sits uncomfortably with the conclu-
used by climatologists generally re-
bluntness. "Any strong statements on
sions of the intergovernmental panel
quire supercomputers.) "I have a rule
my part are controlled, deliberate and
on climatic change, a group that has
of thumb," he says, "that if you can't
designed to achieve an effect," he told
made perhaps the most authoritative
predict the past with a model, you
journalists at the National Press Club
assessment of the science of global
ought not to believe you can predict
last December.
warming to date. The panel concluded
the future."
Nor does the man who is so skepti-
last year that without remedial mea-
Sununu also says he finds it of "par-
cal of greenhouse warming calculations
sures, global average temperature was
ticular interest" that about 20 times
hesitate to defend himself with statis-
likely to rise one degree Celsius above
more carbon dioxide comes from nat-
tics. "I have to interact with a member
its present value by 2025 and three de-
ural sources-primarily vegetative de-
of Congress or a critical member of the
grees by the end of the next century.
cay-than comes from burning fos-
administration or the press about 100
Such changes would severely dis-
sil fuels. "The amount they are trying
times a day. If I bat 99 percent in terms
rupt agriculture, natural ecosystems
to get the international community to
of having it be a very successful out-
and human settlements. The Nation-
agree to not emit, if you will, over a
come all around, it means 365 times a
al Academy of Sciences was scheduled
short amount of time is less than the
year there's something that people can
to release a report in March that un-
noise in the natural emissions. They
write a story about or exaggerate a sto-
derscores these scientific concerns and
ought not to be making decisions that
ry about."
-Tim Beardsley
28
SCIENTIFIC
AMERICAN
APR
1991
PROFILE: POLITICAL ENGINEER
John Sununu dominates science policy
W
hen the elders of science used
man of the Council of Economic Advis-
to bemoan the lack of science
ers, clearly in control, Secretary of En-
advice in Washington, they
ergy James D. Watkins seemed to sit on
probably didn't anticipate that John
the sidelines as a national energy strat-
Henry Sununu would fill the gap. Hear
egy was shaped by the White House.
him on global warming, for example:
And even presidential science adviser
"Frankly," says the White House chief
D. Allan Bromley has been forced to
of staff, "I have the feeling that a lot
backpedal on statements about green-
of people focus on carbon dioxide be-
house warming.
cause what they are concerned about
Yet it is Sununu's ability to absorb
is not global warming, but their own
and retain details of technical issues
antigrowth agenda. A lot of people who
that has allowed him to exert such a
are moaning and groaning about global
wide influence over policy. Born to Leb-
warming are also the same ones who
anese and Salvadoran parents in Ha-
are moaning and groaning about nucle-
vana in 1939, he says he knew that he
ar winter."
wanted to be an engineer from about
Before Sununu came to grips with
the age of seven, when he was given a
the issue, President George Bush in
book called Engineers' Dreams. He grew
1989 endorsed the goal of stabilizing
up in New York City and earned bach-
carbon dioxide emissions because they
elor's and master's degrees from the
had been implicated in global warm-
Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
ing. Now, as Bush's chief enforcer of
Sununu had more in mind than be-
domestic issues, the engineer who be-
ing a bench engineer, however. While
came the governor of New Hampshire
still an undergraduate, he co-founded
has become the principal obstacle to
an engineering company, Astro Dynam-
that plan. "Frankly, I think he's hurting
ics, Inc., and as its chief engineer de-
the president," says William A. Nitze,
signed heat sinks and brushless mo-
whom Sununu ordered fired from his
tors. He also worked on life-support
position at the State Department be-
systems for astronauts for the National
cause he openly favored controlling
Aeronautics and Space Administration.
carbon dioxide emissions.
But in 1965 he returned to M.I.T.,
With a combative style that has
where he earned a Ph.D. in fluid dy-
earned him a reputation for delivering
namics in only nine months. In 1966
scathing put-downs to political allies as
Sununu was appointed an assistant
well as opponents, Sununu has become
professor of mechanical engineering at
the administration's de facto architect
Tufts University, where he worked on
of much of domestic policy. In a little
problems involving heat transfer, tem-
more than two years in Washington,
perature control and fluid dynamics.
"the Governor," as he is known to his
Sununu began his move into politics
staff, has eclipsed key agency heads
soon after he and his wife, Nancy,
and advisers as the arbiter of issues
moved to Salem, N.H., in 1969 to take
from energy and technology to the en-
advantage of that state's lower taxes.
vironment-especially global warming.
"Nancy and I really loved the state and
"It's my sense there's a majority of
decided that we ought to get involved
opinion within the agencies that would
to try to keep it the way we loved it,"
like to see the administration go fur-
he says. So, even though he was com-
ther in the direction of stabilizing emis-
muting to Tufts, he found time to join
sions," says Alden Meyer of the Union
the Salem local planning board. He
of Concerned Scientists, the U.S. co-
soon became chairman and reveled in
ordinator of Climate Action Network.
bringing his analytical acumen to polit-
"But it's impossible to have a rational
ical problems. Over the next 12 years,
discussion of the subject when Sununu
Sununu became increasingly involved
is in the room."
in politics. He served a term in the
Sununu, who has called himself a
state legislature and staunchly defend-
"political counterpuncher," has demon-
ed the controversial Seabrook nuclear
strated his expertise at infighting in
power plant.
well-publicized battles with William
Although he had lost several political
K. Reilly, administrator of the Environ-
races, in 1983 he was elected the 93rd
mental Protection Agency, over wet-
governor of New Hampshire. In three
lands policy and climatic change. With
subsequent two-year terms, Sununu
Sununu, together with Office of Man-
won a reputation as a fiscal conserva-
agement and Budget director Richard
tive. Sununu's entry into the national
27
G. Darman and Michael J. Boskin, chair-
arena came when he helped to secure
CONTINUED
The Washington Post
APR
1991
Strict Energy-Saving Urged
To Combat Global Warming
Presidential science adviser D.
That estimate is within range of
By Michael Weisskopf
AI
Allan Bromley said the panel's rec-
the general scientific consensus
Washington Post Staff Writer
ommendations were "reasonable
that temperatures will increase 4 to
goals," but he reiterated the admin-
8 degrees, forcing sea levels to rise
The National Academy of Sciences
istration's opposition to energy
and some plants to wither.
yesterday recommended a prompt
taxes or "command and control"
For Americans, who benefit from
and aggressive regimen of energy
proposals, such as federally man-
different climate zones and a dynam-
conservation measures to reduce the
dated efficiency standards for com-
ic farming system, the temperature
earth's warming trend, projecting
mercial buildings.
rises are not likely to cause adapta-
negligible costs for what it called a
"The goals we have in mind are
tion problems worse than "the most
"planetary insurance policy."
going to be achieved more effec-
severe conditions in the past, such as
In the most authoritative U.S.
tively by people who believe they
the Dust Bowl," said the panel. But
assessment to date of policy options
are doing it for their own benefit or
the threat of an unforeseen calamity
to combat the "greenhouse effect,"
the nation's benefit, rather than
is "plausible," said the authors, war-
the academy said that by more fully
being forced by some centralized
ranting policies to cut global warm-
exploiting current technologies
control mechanism," said Bromley.
ing gases as "insurance protection
over the next 30 years, the United
Despite campaign promises to
against the great uncertainties and
States could reduce by as much as
combat the greenhouse effect with
the possibility of dramatic surprises."
40 percent its emissions of indus-
the "White House effect," President
The panel noted that measures to
trial gases blamed for trapping solar
Bush has stressed the scientific un-
reduce the gases can be accom-
heat and raising the Earth's tem-
plished at "modest cost. In other
certainties and the need for more
words, insurance is cheap."
perature.
research. His advisers adhere to the
According to its plan, 3.2 billion
The academy blueprint included
gloomiest economic forecasts of a 3
tons of greenhouse gases can be cut
recommendations for: tax incentives
percent decline in national income to
from the present U.S. output of 8
or regulation to achieve a 30 percent
achieve European goals of a 20 per-
billion tons per year. None of the
increase in auto fuel efficiency; use
cent reduction in carbon dioxide—
measures to achieve such reduc-
of new, compact fluorescent bulbs to
the principal warming gas.
tions would cost more than $9 per
save 50 percent of the power used in
With many of its members view-
ton, and some would actually save
lighting; more efficient motors to cut
ing global warming as the greatest
money by removing the need, for
industrial energy demand by 30 per-
environmental threat and calling for
example, for new power plants.
cent; tougher standards for refrig-
radical changes in the nation's en-
In February, the administration
erators and dishwashers to cut up to
ergy structure, Congress asked for
had cited controversial forecasts
30 percent of their energy use, and
an assessment from the federal
that energy taxes as high as $250 a
restructuring energy prices to more
government's top advisory body on
ton would be needed to significantly
accurately reflect environmental
scientific and technical matters.
cut global warming gases when it
costs.
The NAS named a 46-member pan-
unveiled an "action agenda" that
While stopping short of setting
el consisting of scientists, econo-
essentially repackaged policies de-
specific limits on greenhouse gas
mists and public-policy analysts.
vised for other purposes, such as
emissions, as most European nations
In its report, the panel agreed
the phase-out of chlorofluorocar-
have done, the academy recommen-
with the administration that none of
bons (CFCs) to restore the protec-
dations are more far-reaching than
the major computer-generated cli-
tive ozone layer. CFCs also are a
the Bush administration ventured in
mate models provides a "reliable
powerful global-warming gas.
its proposed National Energy Strat-
forecast" of global warming. But the
Apparently referring to the "ac-
panel pointed to a "reasonable
egy, and they are priced at a tiny
tion agenda," the panel called for
chance" that by the middle of the
fraction of White House cost esti-
"not only several actions that satisfy
next century, when greenhouse
mates. The report is expected to
multiple goals but also several
gases are expected to double in con-
provide ammunition for congression-
whose costs are justified mainly by
centration over pre-industrial
al critics of the administration's cau-
countering or adapting to green-
times, global temperatures will in-
house warming."
tious approach to global warming.
crease 2 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit.
"Despite the great uncertainties,
greenhouse warming is a potential
threat sufficient to justify action
now," concluded a panel of the acad-
emy's Committee on Science, En-
gineering and Public Policy.
14
The New York Times
APR
CONTINUED
I991
represents the reduction that would
merely allow them to stabilize in the
take place if all the measures were in
short term while resuming their
effect now. By that measure, said Mi-
growth in the long term.
chael Deland, the chairman of the
They also assert that some of the im-
White House Council on Environmental
portant steps recommended by the
Quality, the actions already taken by
academy have been specifically re-
the Administration would amount to a
jected by the Administration. Among
20 to 25 percent reduction.
them are the increase in gasoline mile-
The effects of any such measures do
age standards for new cars to 32.5
not suddenly materialize in one year,
miles per gallon; stronger Federal
but rather come into play over a period
support for mass transit; and the even-
of years, in which economic and popu-
tual adoption of a system in which so-
lation growth cause emissions to grow.
cial and environmental costs would be
This is not accounted for in the acad-
included in setting the price of energy.
emy analysis, Mr. Deland said. Mr.
"No matter which way you slice it,"
Coppock, the director of the academy
Dr. Oppenheimer said, "what the acad-
panel's staff, said this was true.
emy is proposing is stronger than what
Environmentalists say the steps al-
the Administration has done." He said
ready taken by the Administration are
the academy's recommendations "go a
not enough to achieve an absolute re-
long way toward meeting the goal of
duction in the "greenhouse" emissions
keeping the climate from going hay-
in the United States, but rather would
wire."
Members of Study Panel
Special to The New York Times
WASHINGTON, April 10 - Following are the members of the Na-
tional of Academy of Science's panel on global warming:
Daniel J. Evans, chairman of Daniel J.
William D. Nordhaus, professor of eco-
Evans & Associates, Seattle, and a for-
nomics, Yale University.
mer Governor and Senator from
Gordon H. Orians, professor of zoology
Washington.
and director of the Institute for Envi-
Robert McCormick Adams, Secretary,
ronmental Studies, University of
Smithsonian Institution, Washington.
Washington, Seattle.
George F. Carrier, T. Jefferson Coolidge
Stephen H. Schneider, head of interdisci-
Professor of Applied Mathematics,
plinary climate studies, National Cen-
emeritus, Harvard University.
ter for Atmospheric Research, Boul-
Richard N. Cooper, professor of econom-
der, Colo.
ics, Harvard.
Maurice F. Strong, chairman, director
Robert A. Frosch, vice president, Gen-
general of the External Aid Office of
eral Motors Research Laboratories,
the Canadian Government (resigned
Warren, Mich.
from panel February 1990).
Thomas H. Lee, professor emeritus, de-
Sir Crispin Tickell, warden, Green Col-
partment of electrical engineering and
lege, Oxford, England.
computer science, Massachusetts In-
Victoria J. Tschinkel, senior consultant,
stitute of Technology.
Landers & Parsons, Tallahassee, Fla.
Jessica Tuchman Mathews, vice presi-
Paul E. Waggoner, distinguished scien-
dent, World Resources Institute, Wash-
tist, Connecticut Agricultural Experi-
ington.
ment Station, New Haven.
13
The New York Times
APR
1991
Urgent Steps Urged on Warming Threat
By WILLIAM K. STEVENSB12
Special to The New York Times
The Academy's Call to Action
WASHINGTON, April 10 - In a re-
port that was welcomed by the White
Declaring that "despite the great uncertainties, greenhouse warming
House and environmentalists, the Na-
tional Academy of Sciences said today
is a potential threat sufficient to justify action now," the National
that the United States should act
Academy of Sciences called for these measures:
promptly to reduce the threat of global
Adopt nationwide energy-efficient building codes.
warming.
An academy panel recommended a
Improve the efficiency of the U.S. automotive fleet through the use
variety of steps, including raising over-
all mileage standards for new automo-
of an appropriate combination of regulation and tax incentives.
biles to 32.5 miles per gallon from 27.5;
Strengthen Federal and state support of mass transit.
increasing Federal support for mass
transit and reforestation, and develop-
Improve appliance efficiency standards.
ing a new generation of safe and effi-
cient nuclear power plants. The feared
Encourage public education and information programs for
warming is expected as a result of the
conservation and recycling.
steady accumulation of waste indus-
trial gases like carbon dioxide.
Reform state public utility regulation to encourage electrical
The steps necessary to address
utilities to promote efficiency and conservation.
global warming have been a matter of
Sharply increase the emphasis on efficiency and conservation in
fierce political contention between the
Bush Administration and environmen-
the Federal energy research and development budget.
tal groups. Even within the Adminis-
Utilize Federal and state purchases of goods and services to
tration, the Environmental Protection
Agency has favored quicker action
demonstrate best-practice technologies and energy conservation
against global warming, which the
programs.
President's chief of staff, John H. Sunu-
Source: "Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming,' National Academy of Sciences
nu, has opposed.
The academy's report seems to be
intended as an adroit political compro-
House science adviser, said, "I am de-
The panel said the United States
mise between the various factions, and
lighted with the report, as are all my
"should resume full participation" in
was praised on all sides.
colleagues in the White House. He said
international programs to slow popula-
actions already taken by the Bush Ad-
tion growth. Population, said Daniel J.
Rudiments of National Policy
ministration would result in emission
Evans, the chairman of the panel, "is
reductions on the order of those pro-
the biggest single driver of atmos-
Although its recommendations are
somewhat general, as would be ex-
posed by the academy.
pheric pollution." Mr. Evans is a for-
pected in a consensus document, they
The academy report "should put an
mer Republican Senator and Governor
point the way to a broad-based national
end to the debate over whether it pays
from Washington.
program for reducing carbon dioxide
to act to slow global warming," said
The panel encouraged development
emissions. They lay down the rudi-
Dr. Michael Oppenheimer, an atmos-
and testing of a new generation of safe,
ments of a national energy policy,
pheric scientist at the Environmental
efficient nuclear power plants to re-
which the Administration has long re-
Defense Fund. "It makes a prima facie
place those that burn coal.
sisted.
case for acting now. We can actually
Its report did not go as far as many
William K. Reilly, the Administrator
reduce emissions and save money at
environmentalists have advocated in
of the Environmental Profection Agen-
the same time."
reducing carbon dioxide emissions,
cy, called the report "a step foward,"
'A Nimble Policy'
concluding that "options requiring
although said that he did not neces-
great expenses are not justified at this
Even though the report does not set
time.
sarily agree with everything in it and
targets for reducing carbon dioxide, as
The Administration says that steps
that his agency had not yet analyzed it
environmental groups have long advo-
already taken will allow overall green-
in detail.
cated, it was described as "a nimble
house-gas emissions in the U.S. to sta-
A senior Administration official, who
policy" by a member of the panel, Dr.
bilize in the next decade. But they
spoke on the condition that he not be
Jessica Tuchman Mathews, vice presi-
argue that this is nevertheless consis-
identified, said he was pleased that the
dent of the World Resources Institute.
tent with the possible reduction of 10 to
report had not recommended "draco-
The panel said the prospect of global
40 percent that the academy said can
nian changes." He also praised the re-
warming "poses a potential threat suf-
be achieved if its measures are fol-
port's cautious stand on the uncertain-
ficient to merit prompt responses,"
lowed.
ties of global warming, its cost-benefit
even though it ackowledged that there
This is because the academy figure
analysis, its refusal to propose target
was great uncertainty about its extent,
dates and quotas for reductions of car-
timing and impact. T
bon dioxide emissions, and the impor-
The academy panel said its proposed
tance it places on eliminating another
measures were all of "low cost," mean-
powerful trapper of heat, chlorofluoro-
ing they were cheap ways of reducing
carbons.
carbon dioxide and other waste gases.
Dr. D. Allan Bromley, the White
Low cost was defined as $10 per metric
CONTINUED
ton of heat-trapping gases eliminated
per year. The panel did not calculate
the total value of the initial investment.
11
CONTINUED
The New York Times
APR
I991
Climate Change: Prospects and Remedies
TRUTH AND
GREENHOUSE-DRIVEN ENERGY POLICY
CONSEQUENCES
The academy has recommended several steps to
The National Academy of
reduce greenhouse gas emissions by improving
Sciences says there is clear
the performance of the nation's energy system.
evidence and wide agree-
ment among atmospheric
Coal- and natural-gas-fired plants. Develop
scientists about several
systems that have efficiencies approaching 60
aspects of climate change:
percent.
1. The atmospheric
Natural gas. Encourage broader use of natural
concentration of carbon
gas by den-tifying and removing obstacles in the
dioxide has increased 25
distribution system.
percent during the last
century and is increasing
Nuclear power. Develop and test a new gene-
about 0.5 percent a year.
ration of nuclear reactors that are designed to
2. The atmospheric
deal with safety, waste management and public
concentration of methane
acceptability.
has doubled during that
Alternative energy sources. Increase research
period and is increasing
and development on alternative energy supply
about 0.9 percent a year.
technologies, such as solar, and design ways to
3. Chlorofluorocarbons are
use them in conjunction with existing
increasing at about 4 percent
technologies.
per year.
4. Human activities are pri-
RECOMENDATIONS FOR REDUCING EMISSIONS
marily responsible.
5. Global average temper-
Potential carbon dioxide emission reduction
ature has risen by 0.5 to 1.1
in metric tons per year
Potential
degree Fahrenheit in the last
Suggested Action
Cost to Implement
Reduction
century.
Building energy efficiency
Net benefit
900 million
The following could happen:
Vehicle efficiency
Net benefit
300million
1. If no effort is made to
(no fleet change)
reduce emissions, green-
Industrial energy
Net benefit to low cost
500 million
house gas concentrations
management
could continue to rise,
Transportation system
Net benefit to low cost
50 million
doubling the preindustrial
management
level by 2050.
Power plant heat
Net benefit to low
50 million
2. This rise could ultimately
rate improvement
increase average global
Lahdfill gas collection
Low cost
200 million
temperature by 1.8 and 9
Halocarbon-CFC
Low cost
1.4 billion
degrees Fahrenheit.
usage reduction
3. Further increases in tem-
Agriculture
Low cost
200 million
perature are likely because
Reforestation
Low to moderate cost
200 million
the oceans release heat
Net benefit= cost less than or equal to zero.
more slowly than land.
Low cost=cost between $1 and $9 per ton of CO2 equivalent
Ultimately, the temperature
Moderate cost = cost between $10 and $99 per ton of Co2 equivalent
rise could be twice as high.
High cost= cost of $100 or more per ton of CO2 equivalent
Source: "Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming," the National Academy of Sciences.
CONTINUED
12
EPA in the News
D2
THE NEW YORK TIMES, WEDNESDAY, APRIL 24, 1991
Economic Scene
Peter Passell
The 'No Regrets'
Greenhouse Fix
T
HE latest word on the greenhouse effect, from
a National Academy of Sciences panel headed
by Daniel Evans, a former Governor of Wash-
ington, will surely not be the last. But the panel's
report, somnolently titled "Policy Implications of
Global Warming," is surely a breakthrough - the
first to bridge the canyon between alarmist science
and what-me-worry economics.
The academy's synthesis can be summed up
briefly as concluding that human adaption to
warmer weather will likely be relatively painless.
Outlined in 113 reader-friendly pages, the argu-
ment won't quite convince end-of-nature types to
Niculae Asciu
bed down with those looking forward to palm trees
in Buffalo. Still, it is a safe bet that the report's ap-
develop greenhouse-benevolent energy technolo-
proach, which one Bush Administration analyst
gies that will be on the shelf and relatively afford-
dubbed a "no regrets' policy, will carry the estab-
able if they are needed. And it would probably also
lishment's imprimatur for some time to come.
include reducing greenhouse emissions where
there are only modest net costs. Prime targets: an
accelerated phase-out of CFC's, which are damag-
Reduced to its journalistic essence, "no regrets"
ing the ozone layer as well as warming the planet;
goes something like this:
a big effort to save tropical rain forests, which sup-
Atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases (carbon
port diverse life forms as well as storing carbon.
dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, CFC refrigeration
"No regrets" looks like good politics as well as
chemicals) are rising rapidly; projecting current
good policy. While every politician wants a piece of
trends, concentrations will be double their pre-in-
the righteous turf on this biggest of all environmen-
dustrial level by the year 2050. That virtually guar-
tal causes, few are eager to ask the voters to tak
antees the planet will trap more solar energy and
the bus to work or shiver in their sweaters until the
the earth will grow warmer.
dangers are much clearer. But the approach may
But the plausible range of temperature change is
as little as 2 degrees Fahrenheit to as much as 9.
not prove as uncontroversial as it first appears.
And even if the figure could be pinned down, it
Much of the energy-saving that the panel be-
would not tell us much about the ensuing environ-
lieves would pay for itself would require a fairly
mental and economic damage or the difficulty of
heavy regulatory hand. The report, for example,
adaptation. In agriculture, for example, hard-to-
calls for higher mileage standards for cars - a
predict shifts in rainfall are likely to have far
move the Bush Administration has already de-
greater consequences than the direct effect of hot-
clared to be veto bait. One must wonder, too, how
the idea of testing a new generation of nuclear
ter summers.
reactors would appeal to Congress.
Gradual weather change would probably prove
only an expensive headache for humans. Tens of
millions of Americans, after all, have coped with
But the panel's most problematic recommenda-
far more dramatic shifts in their voluntary move
tions may be those it treats most lightly: the im-
to the Sun Belt. But there is some possibility of dis-
perative for international cooperation. At very
continuous, catastrophic change - for example, a
least that translates as aggressive support for
huge release of methane from the melting Arctic
tundra that turned the cornfields of Iowa into a
population control in the third world. But it could
desert in a single generation. And there is little
also take money - lots of money - to induce poor
doubt that thousands of marine and plant species
countries to think greenhouse when they think eco-
would be decimated by even a gradual warming.
nomic development.
What to do? The panel's "no regrets" strategy
China, for example, now emits just 7 percent of
starts with emissions-reducing initiatives that
the greenhouse gas created by human activity. But
would pay for themselves in greater economic effi-
it emits six times as much the United States per
ciency. High on this list is energy conservation for
dollar's worth of G.N.P. and a remarkable 18 times
buildings, vehicles and industrial processes.
as much as Japan. Thus if Chinese living standards
But the panel, which included experts ranging
ever approach those of the West-without radical
from Stephen Schneider, a Government climatolo-
improvements in energy efficiency and a techno-
gist, to William Nordhaus, a Yale economist, would
logical overhaul of agriculture, the greenhouse
go further, buying a little insurance against an
game will be as good as lost.
unexpectedly rainy (or, more likely, a very dry)
day. This would surely include spending money to
EPA in the News
trash. In what may be a unique
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL WEDNESDAY, APRIL 24, 1991,
twist, Newark is using its compost
to make vacant lots and back
yards bloom all over town.
That is, with the help of partic-
ipants in its booming urban gar-
ENVIRONMENT
dening program. For a dollar a
year, residents can rent city-
BY DAVID STIPP
owned vacant lots for gardens,
says Frank Sudol, a spokesman
for Newark's Department of Engi-
Bad Things Come
Manufacturers opposing the
neering, which oversees the com-
In Small Particles
proposed laws question the study,
post program. His department
asserting that the costs of comply-
trucks the compost to urban gar-
IR POLLUTION'S tiny par-
ing with them would hurt busi-
dens free. The compost is impor-
A
nesses and cause layoffs. The
ticles are emerging as its
tant, he adds, because Newark's
MIT researchers counter that the
worst culprit.
rocky soil by itself isn't good for
Scientists have long known
mandates would yield a net in-
growing things. Urban gardeners
that particles in diesel, cigarette
crease in jobs by boosting the la-
using their own back yards also
and factory smoke are associated
bor-intensive recycling industry.
can order free compost.
with health problems. But analyz-
Last year, some 800 commu-
ing the harm they do compared
Bank Aims to Fill
nity and back-yard gardens in
with fallout from other air pollu-
Environmental Niche
and near Newark produced over
tants that occur with them has
$735,000 of fruits and vegetables,
been tricky, says Joel Schwartz,
ANKING and the color
says I.C. Patel, a county exten-
an air pollution researcher at the
B
green will soon be more
sion agent involved in the pro-
Environmental Protection Agency
closely linked than ever.
gram. Mr. Sudol adds that it is
in Washington, D.C. And few cit-
A group of business people
building community spirit in
ies have kept the daily records of
with backgrounds in banking and
many parts of Newark, with
particle levels needed to make
environmental services are form-
whole blocks competing to grow
correlations with death rates or
ing a New Hampshire commercial
the lushest communal gardens.
other indicators of health effects.
bank to specialize in lending to
Recycling Rules Could
But in the past few years,
environmental companies.
enough daily data have become
Spin Off Big Savings
Small companies involved in
available for various cities, in-
recycling, alternative energy,
cluding London and Philadelphia,
toxic-waste cleanups and other
M
ORE recycling of pack-
ages could save Massa-
to make possible better correla-
environmental niches are sprout-
chusetts a tidy $300 mil-
tions, says Mr. Schwartz. In ana-
ing everywhere. But bank loan of-
lion a year.
lyses of such data over the past
ficials often don't have the techni-
That's the bottom line of a re-
two years, he and colleagues have
cal backgrounds needed to assess
cent study by Massachusetts In-
found that particles account for
them for loans, says Ronald F.
stitute of Technology researchers,
most of the higher mortality asso-
Reilly, a former Citicorp execu-
who examined the economic ef-
ciated with heavy episodes of
tive and president of the new
fects of proposed laws on the re-
smoky pollution. The analyses
First Environmental Bank &
also indicate that as many as 60,-
cyclability of packages. Environ-
Trust, Portsmouth, N.H. More-
000 Americans die annually from
mentalists are pushing such man-
over, banks sometimes are leery
dates in about a dozen states to
inhaling particles at levels that
of lending to companies delving
don't exceed the maximum set by
foster markets for recycled mate-
into environmentally risky situa-
rials. The Massachusetts version
federal law. Other studies suggest
tions such as cleanups.
that acidic particles are espe-
would require packages by 1996
But with executives schooled
either to be reusable five times, to
cially bad, says George Thurston,
in the environmental business, the
a researcher at the New York
contain 50% recycled materials or
new bank will be able to make
University School of Medicine.
to be made of materials recycled
sound loans, he says. The bank
at a 35% rate statewide.
"We saw steeper mortality ef-
will cater to "socially conscious"
The MIT researchers calcu-
fects on wheezers," such as peo-
depositors, including nonprofit
lated that the main benefit of re-
ple with asthma and emphysema,
firms and wealthy individuals,
says the EPA's Mr. Schwartz.
cycling a ton of packaging under
who want to make "green" in-
the proposed mandates would be
Other recent studies suggest par-
vestments backed by federal de-
to avoid $265 in incineration and
ticles also contribute to illness,
posit insurance.
landfill costs. About half of that is
such as lung cancer, in previously
The bank's organizers plan to
the estimated cost of environmen-
healthy people. he adds. "Ulti-
raise start-up capital of $10 mil-
tal harm not included in current
mately, I think we'll have to re-
lion in a stock offering and to be-
disposal charges, such as health
vise" federal standards for partic-
gin operations in a few months.
effects of air pollution from burn-
ulate leveis.
From Composted Trash,
ing trash, says economist Robert
Urban Gardens Bloom
Stone, co-author of the study. Var-
ious other benefits and costs were
EWARK, N.J., is recycling
N
combined to arrive at an esti-
garbage into food.
Like many U.S. cities,
mated net savings of $175 million
to $300 million for Massachusetts
Newark collects leaves in the fall
for composting as a way to reduce
taxpayers and businesses.
EPA in the News
NASATechBriefs
Official Publication of
Transferring Technology
National Aeronautics and
to Industry and
Space Administration
Government
Volume 15 Number 4
April 1991
EARTH'S VANISHING OZONE
cont'd
EPA in the News
CONt'd
"The commonwealth's proposal is
a great disappointment and is bound
to fail," argued George B. Hender-
son 2d, assistant US attorney.
"There is no assurance that it won't
select another site fraught with
problems and the same difficulty
with the host community."
Theodore J. Frier, spokesman
for the Executive Office of Environ-
mental Affairs, said later that the
governor "anticipates that this mora-
torium has to be resolved one way or
another in a couple of weeks."
ENd
EPA in the News
cont'd
mission. The effort continued with de-
he internationally-acclaimed
vices aboard the Nimbus 7 spacecraft
T
research of NASA scientist
in 1978, the Application Explorer Mis-
Dr. M. Patrick McCormick has
sion spacecraft from 1979 to 1981, and
sharpened the world's focus on ozone
the second Stratospheric Aerosol and
loss as a major threat to the planet's
Gas Experiment (SAGE II) aboard the
health Using satellite borne sensors,
Earth Radiation Budget satellite, still
McCormick discovered a key atmos-
operating today after its launch from the
pheric agent contributing to the "hole" in
shuttle in 1984.
the polar ozone curtain that protects the
The Langley scientist first identified
Earth from the sun's dangerous ultra-
PSCs when his SAM and SAGE experi-
violet rays. His finding represents a
ments revealed there were extensive
giant step forward in understanding glo-
clouds in the coldest parts of the polar
bal ozone depletion.
stratosphere. This finding was later con-
McCormick, head of the Langley
firmed by laser detection from aircraft
Center's Aerosol Research Branch, dis-
missions led by McCormick, who is now
covered the existence of polar strato-
working on a 1993 shuttle experiment
spheric clouds (PSCs), high-altitude
that will employ space-based lasers to
clouds made of ice crystals and nitric
acid which form over Antarc-
further probe the atmosphere.
In January, McCormick received the
NASA's
tica in the winter. This previ-
American Meteorological Society's pres-
ously unknown phenomenon
is now recognized as a piv-
tigious Jule G. Charney Award, given in
otal catalyst in the chemical
recognition of outstanding achievement
in the atmospheric or hydrologic sci-
reactions that are destroying
ences. He previously earned the NASA
the ozone layer. "Without
PSCs, I am convinced you
Exceptional Scientific Achievement
Medal, and his work on defining the role
would not have an ozone
hole," McCormick said.
of trace gases and aerosols at flight
The role of PSCs in
altitudes was recognized by a U.S. sen-
ate resolution.
ozone depletion is linked to
A NASA employee since 1967,
the presence in the atmo-
McCormick currently serves on the
S
sphere of chlorofluorocar-
NASA/World Meteorological Organ-
bons, man-made chemicals
ization's Ozone Assessment Panel. He
widely used as refrigerants
said studies show that the ozone hole in
and cleaning solvents. When these
1990 was severe for the third time in
chemicals break down, they release
chlorine gas which attacks the ozone.
four years. The hole will continue to be
And chlorine has a voracious appetite
a problem, he predicted, and he has
- one atom can destroy hundreds of
called for the rapid development of safe
alternatives to chlorofluorocarbons.
thousands of ozone molecules.
Normally, the chlorine is "locked" in
stable compounds. But when PSCs are
present, the compounds react on the
cloud surfaces, freeing chlorine to at-
cont'd
tack ozone until the Antarctic tempera-
tures warm in the summer and the clouds
dissipate. Moreover, as PSCs con-
dense, they remove nitrogen gas that
protects the ozone layer, adding to its
vulnerability.
The satellite instruments McCormick
developed use a solar occultation tech-
nique, which involves measuring sun-
light as it passes through the Earth's
atmosphere. By analyzing the wave-
lengths of the light, McCormick can
determine what types of gases and par-
ticles are present in the atmosphere.
This study of the stratosphere from sat-
ellites began with the Stratospheric
Aerosol Measurement (SAM) experi-
ment flown on the 1975 Apollo-Soyuz
EPA in the News
Cont'd
SAGE II OZONE HOLE MEASUREMENTS
1966
1987
Satellite data
revealed that
the 1990 Ant-
arctic ozone
hole matched
the record
1987 ozone
1988
1989
1990
depletion in
depth, dura-
tion, and area.
Photos courtesy Langley Research Center
Dr. McCormick (inset) discovered unique high-altitude clouds that play a
pivotal role in ozone depletion.
end
MONDAY. MAY D. 1991
THE WASHINGTON POST
Jessica 1. Mathews
'A Desperate Game of Catch-Up'
From ridiculed scare story in the
uses did not seem available at any
eventually climb to 3-4 percent per
early 70s to precedent-setting inter-
price.
decade, then decline.
national regulation in the late '80s,
International discussions moved
Now scientists have discovered
the ozone layer seemed-until a few
slowly. By 1985 a treaty framework
that depletion in the latitudes over
weeks ago-a clear-cut success sto-
was agreed to. but without actual
the United States has already reached
ry. proving that global environmental
controls on emissions. Then two stun-
4-5 percent. According to the models.
threats could be surmounted despite
ning events rescued the negotiations
peak loss will therefore reach 10
uncertain science. powerful commer-
from failure. British scientists discov-
percent per decade. and skin cancer
cial interests and deep international
ered a completely unexpected ozone
deaths will rise dramatically. Since
divisions.
"hole" over Antarctica. and DuPont,
the models underestimate depletion.
But the recent finding that ozone
the world's largest CFC producer.
actual loss will likely be greater.
loss over the Northern Hemisphere is
announced that it could develop sub-
though how much greater or what the
twice as great as predicted means
stitutes within five years.
eventual consequences will be no one
that protection of the Earth's life-
Less than two years later, the Mon-
knows. The treaty will have to be
giving stratospheric ozone must now
treal Protocol required a 50 percent
tightened yet again.
be considered unfinished business,
cut in emissions. Within months the
What this story tells us is that
the outcome very much in doubt.
marketplace began to explode with
mankind is engaged in a desperate
While the story has seemed to shift
CFC substitutes. Projected costs
game of catch-up ball-against it.
from crisis to problem and back again,
underneath there has been a consis-
plummeted.
self-without knowing how much
One year after that, CFCs were
time is left on the clock. By every
tent trend. And though the final act is
not yet written. there IS a clear moral
conclusively fingered as the cause of
measure, we have caused greater
to be drawn.
both Antarctic and global ozone loss.
change to the planet in the last four
Reduced to its essentials, here is
Exploration in the Arctic suggested
decades than in the previous 10,000
that a hole might develop there. Glob-
years combined. Scientists are scram-
what has happened so far:
The likelihood that chiorofluorocar-
al loss, greater than the models had
bling to unravel the secrets of enor-
predicted, was detected for the first
mously complex systems. while the
bons (CFCs) destroy stratospheric
ozone was suggested in 1973. By
time. By June 1990, the protocol was
systems themselves are changing due
1978 the United States had banned
revised, now requiring a complete
to rapidly growing human influence.
the use of CFCs in aerosols. though
phaseout of CFC production in indus-
It's a contest between our ability to
no other CFC-producing countries
trialized countries by 2000. Computer
understand the natural systems that
were prepared to follow suit. Poten-
models predicted that if the treaty
sustain life on the planet and our
tial substitutes for CFCs' many other
terms were met. ozone loss would
capacity to change damaging activi-
THE NEW YORK TIMES, MONDAY. MAY 6, 1991
ties, on the one hand. and the impacts
Countries' willingness to act in ad-
of those activities, on the other.
vance of an international consensus
Though the ozone treaty was
will make a great deal of difference.
Site for Toxic-Waste Cave
achieved with blinding speed com-
Without the U.S. aerosoi ban in 1978,
pared with most international negoti-
atmospheric concentrations of CFCs
ations, and was in many ways a tre-
today would be more than double
Stirs Texas Political Fight
mendous achievement, we cannot
what they are. What once seemed to
draw too much comfort from the ex-
some an unwise unilateral response to
perience. Too much depended on the
a multilateral problem now looks like
Little-Known Company Bets on a Huge Payoff
shock of the Antarctic hole. There
crucial leadership.
will not be a relatively painless crisis
The choice often appears to be a
each time we need quick international
tradeoff between short-term costs-
cooperation.
the competitive disadvantage of act-
By STEVE LOHR
Even with the hole, the fate of the
ing alone-and the long-term costs of
Special 10 The New York Times
ozone layer now looks as though it
environmental damage. Usually, the
DAYTON, Tex - Here on the ver-
could prove to be another of those
former look large and solid while the
dant coastal towlands of Texas, a lit-
years old; the subterranean salt
situations where for a long time it is
latter are uncertain. The ozone expe-
tle-known company is pursuing one of
formation is so large that were it
too soon to act because of too much
rience demonstrates once again that
the most risky, politically sensitive
above ground it would dwarf Mount
uncertainty and then, almost over-
the short-term costs are also un-
and potentially lucrative goals in
Everest: the length of each proposed
night, it IS suddenly too late. We need
known. Industry's natural habit is to
American business today - a permit
waste-storage cavern would be taller
much better guides for making policy
from Federal and state authorities to
than the Empire State Building.
resist change and to inflate its expec-
when science is uncertain and risks
ted costs: CFCs seemed irreplaceable
build a huge hazardous-waste dis-
Regulatory clearance for a large
are irreversible.
posal site.
project like Hunter's IS the holy grail
only because there had never been a
Quicker ways of reaching interna-
need to develop substitutes. As the
Beneath the rice fields, 30 miles
of the $25-billion-a-year waste serv-
tional agreements are also essential.
from Houston, Hunter Environmen-
ices industry. Only a couple of such
ozone treaty goes back to the drawing
tal Services Inc. wants to bury toxic
permits have been granted in the last
Weapons development moved faster
board, institutional changes that will
waste in mammoth caverns carved
few years, none for salt-dome sites.
than bilateral arms control talks for
enable governments and industry to
into a sait dome more than 60 million
decades. We survived the resulting
respond more quickly to the next such
nuclear arms race, but multilateral
problem ought to become a top priori-
talks are much tougher. We may not
ty.
survive-or have greater cause for
regret-if human-caused damage to
The writer, vice president of World
the environment continues to outpace
Resources Institute, writes this
THE WASHINGTON POST
our ability to control it.
column independently for The Post.
MONDAY, MAY 6. 1991
Two Assistants
Join the Exodus
From Energy Dept.
20
THE NEW YORK TIMES, SUNDAY, MAY 5, 1991
Full Speed Ahead on Mexico?
President Bush wants negotiations with Mexi-
CO over a proposed free-trade agreement to
be put on the fast track. That would let the Ad-
ministration cut a deal Congress could not ne-
gotiate, only pass or kill. But last week, a co-
alition of 60 organizations labor unions, en-
vironmentalists and border-state farmers
told Congress to go slowly. They are worried
the fast track will end in a sour deal, one that
allows companies to take advantage of Mexi-
co's lax pollution laws. Will President Bush be
able to stay on the fast track? Most analysts
say yes.
THE NEW YORK TIMES, SUNDAY, MAY 5, 1991
Good Sense on Mexican Trade
President Bush has responded constructively
trade barriers and spur growth will be sabotaged.
to critics of his proposed free-trade pact with Mexi-
The Administration has made intelligent com-
CO by pledging to protect U.S. workers and the
promises. It emphasizes training assistance, rather
environment. In a 70-page statement, the White
than cash grants, for dislocated workers in order
House promises to retrain dislocated workers, pre-
not to blunt incentives to find new jobs. The plan
serve existing U.S. environmental standards and
would reimpose tariffs if Mexican exports in a
incorporate environmental reviews into the negoti-
particular industry surged; but the backtracking
ating process.
would only be temporary. And all potentially disrup-
These assurances are not airtight and establish
tive provisions would be phased in slowly.
some troubling precedents. But the response an-
On the environment, Mr. Bush is equally sensi-
swers legitimate fears and paves the way for Con-
ble. He guarantees that no U.S. standard will be
gress to approve fast-track legislation, committing
negotiated away. But he refuses to guarantee, as
it to vote on trade pacts promptly and without
some demand, that the Mexican environment go
amendments. As a matter of economics, free trade
unscathed. Environmentalists are upset that the
with Mexico is not all that important. But as a
Bush plan doesn't promise a complete environmen-
matter of politics, it could provide pivotal endorse-
tal analysis of the trade pact before negotiations are
ment of market reforms under way in Mexico, Chile
complete; and U.S. standards appear vulnerable to'
and the rest of Latin America.
the process of settling disputes. Here, the Bush plan
The Bush pledges will, however, create some
might be usefully amended.
knotty problems. They promise generous assist-
In the present case, free trade makes economic
ance to workers laid off by the pact. But why
and political sense for both Mexico and the United
do these workers deserve help any more than, say,
States. But some workers will lose their jobs. Mr.
construction workers who are laid off because of
Bush's obligation was to construct a safety net for
recession? And why do environmentalists warrant
them, while securing the greater economic gain for
a place at the negotiating table rather than, say,
everyone else. The Bush plan isn't ideal. And envi-
human-rights activists? If trade pacts become hos-
ronmentalists have proposed some useful changes.
tage to single-issue pleaders, efforts to knock down
But it's a well-constructed foundation.
THE WASHINGTON POST
SUNDAY, MAY 5, 1991
Mexican Trade and Jobs
O
PEN TRADE with Mexico, according to
United States wants to ensure that those changes
one credulous lobbyist against it, would mean
are irreversible, because it's a market of 85 million
tainted meat and fruit loaded with pesticides
people. As for the Mexicans, they know that their
pouring across the border. That's flatly. wrong, but it
reforms depend on access to the American market,
also illustrates the nature of the debate. The Mexi-
and they think they see signs of rising protection-
can trade agreement would do absolutely nothing to
ism in Congress. A free trade agreement would
affect any of the present health and safety standards
make some marginal improvements. But basically it
enforced at the border. President Bush repeated
would preserve a status quo that each side uneasily
that assurance, along with many others, in his
thinks the other might abandon for domestic politi-
response last week to a series of inquiries from
cal reasons.
Congress. But the agreement and the struggle over
Congress has raised a series of questions about
it seem to have become a lightning rod for a lot of
labor standards and environmental protection.
fears and suspicions in the air.
The administration replies that Mexican laws are
The core of the opposition is the labor unions
not very different from this country's but en-
and their anger at American companies that have
forcement has often been slack. To get the
gone south to Mexico, set up production and
agreement, Mexico is now making a dramatic
shipped their output back into the United States.
effort to tighten up. The result is that unscrupu-
Labor is correct in saying that a lot of companies
lous employers will have less latitude under the
have done that. But that's exactly the point-it
agreement to take advantage of, say, child labor
has happened already. on a large scale under
in Mexico than they do today,
present law. Except for a small number of indus-
Since the Mexicans began to open up their
tries like textiles that are protected by import
markets in 1986, American exports to them have
quotas, a free trade agreement would make very
more than doubled, and the American trade
little difference. For most northbound trade,
deficit with Mexico has dropped by two-thirds.
there is no hindrance but a negligible tariff.
It's true that, as the labor unions put it, some
The purpose of this free trade agreement is not
American jobs have run away to Mexico. It's also
to make large changes, but to lock in the present
true that they have been replaced by many more
conditions of trade. From the American viewpoint,
jobs here in the export'industries, for a net gain
two remarkable presidents of Mexico, have re-
of thousands of jobs.That's the basic case for
versed longstanding national tradition to open up its
open trade. It creates jobs and makes coun-
economy and launch it into world competition, The
tries-including this one-rich:
TALKING POINTS ON GLOBAL WARMING
Current Status:
Formal negotiations on a Framework Convention are now
taking place under the auspices of the United Nations
General Assembly. President Bush hosted the first
negotiating session in Washington in February 1991.
The next negotiating session will be held June 19 -
20, 1991. The Convention is expected to be ready for
signature at the June 1992 U.N. Conference on
Environment and Development in Brazil.
Curtis "Buff" Bohlen, Assistant Secretary of State
for Oceans and International Environmental and
Scientific Affairs, and Bob Reinstein, Deputy
Assistant Secretary of State for Environment, Health
and Natural Resources have led the U.S. Delegation at
these negotiation sessions.
The technical basis for these negotiations is the
interim report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) adopted at the Second World
Climate Conference in November 1990. This report
indicates that global temperatures will rise 2 to 5
degrees C over the next century if no actions are
taken to reduce emissions.
Many countries participating in the negotiations
advocate the adoption of targets and timetables for
carbon dioxide emission reductions.
U.S. Position:
The U.S. has championed a comprehensive approach to
global climate change that incorporates all
greenhouse gas emissions, including their emission
sources and potential sinks. Each pollutant would be
assigned a global warming potential (GWP) index in
order to develop a common currency to analyze the
impact of different actions.
The advantages of this approach was emphasized in the
Administration's "Action Agenda" released at the
first negotiating session of the Framework
Convention. This document summarized the beneficial
impacts of several recent U.S. commitments. These
include:
--
Implementation of the Clean Air Act;
-2-
-- The phase-out of CFCs;
-- Implementation of several DOE efficiency
and renewable energy initiatives;
-- An EPA rule to control VOC and methane
emissions from landfills.
The "Action Agenda" predicts that these actions will
cause U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2000 to be at
or below 1987 emission levels.
If implemented, the National Energy Strategy would
further reduce emissions because of additional energy
efficiency measures, and its increased emphasis on
lower emitting fuels, such as natural gas, nuclear
power, renewable energy, and the use of alternative
fuels in the transportation sector.
DOE estimates that the NES would allow us to hold
emission levels beyond the year 2000 to a range close
to current levels.
If the NES is not implemented, however, greenhouse
gas emissions, as measured by the GWP, would increase
significantly beyond 2000 due to increased coal use
for electricity generation, and the growth of auto
emissions.
U.K. Position:
In preparing for the June negotiation session, the
U.K. has shared draft negotiation text. In that
text, the U.K. endorses an "Incremental Comprehensive
Approach."
Because of scientific uncertainties over the GWP of
the different greenhouse gases, and the incomplete
understanding of the sources/sinks of all greenhouse
gases, the U.K. proposes a gradual phase-in of the
comprehensive approach.
Under the U.K. approach, nations would be invited to
make commitments on emissions covered by those
greenhouse gases for which a GWP index is accepted
(called "Annex A"). Scientific research would go
forward on other greenhouse gasses, which would be
added when knowledge and agreement permits ("Annex
B").
The New York Times
JUN
!991
Plumes from Deep Shape Earth
By WALTER SULLIVAN
CI
EOPHYSICISTS are constructing a new and
and Climate
G
striking history of the earth's geological past,
and in particular of the great engine that
the plumes, demonstrating that there
pushes apart the sea floor and reshuffles the
is complete circulation of the mantle.
continents.
earlier superplume, which erupted
The original plume concept, less
The new picture has emerged from the study of
250 million years ago in the Carbonif-
dramatic than that of "super-
"superplumes" of hot material widely believed to
have risen 1,800 miles to the ocean floor from near the
erous period, created the hot,
plumes," was proposed in 1971 by Dr.
W. Jason Morgan of Princeton Uni-
earth's molten core. A research ship equipped to drill
swampy conditions that produced
versity. He envisioned the earth as
most of the world's coal.
deep into the ocean floor has recently brought back
At the same time as the most re-
containing some 20 columns of hot,
new evidence of the work of one of these superplumes
molten rock rising at inches or feet
cent "global burp," the superplume
- great aprons of lava that were spewed across the
per year beneath key volcanic islands
of 120 million years ago, there oc-
floor of the Pacific Ocean.
curred a well-documented event in
like Iceland and Hawaii. Each plume,
The activity of the superplumes may have had
like a thunderhead, would rise as a
the history of the earth's magnetic
profound consequences for the earth's climate and life
field, a strange suspension of its inter-
narrow column. Then, as it neared the
forms. During the most recent outburst of a super-
mittent reversals. The earth's field
surface and became less compressed,
plume, some 120 million years ago, carbon dioxide gas
it would spread like a mushroom.
sometimes reverses itself, with the
was probably released in the volcanoes and would
north pole becoming the south and
The plumes would carry upward
have built up in the atmosphere, producing a super
vice versa. The reversals occur at
greenhouse effect and setting off a vigorous worldwide
irregular intervals of thousands or
bloom of plant plankton in the oceans. When the
millions of years for reasons that are
plankton blooms died and settled to the ocean floor,
still not understood.
The plateaus created
some experts believe, they provided the starting mate-
But for a perplexing 41 million
rial for much of the world's oil.
years in the mid-Cretaceous period
by superplumes may
That superplume also appears to have spewed out
the field remained normal. A similar
lava beds of such size - one is twice the area of Alaska,
long period, but with reversed polari-
have made the sea
ty, apparently occurred during the
and up to 25 miles deep - that the oceans were raised
Carboniferous period.
level rise.
and flooded much of the land. The superplumes, ac-
The reason for such magnetic qui-
cording to current thinking, are not the only force that
escence is unknown, but it must lie in
makes the sea floor spread and the continents drift
the core, Dr. Larson said. One possi-
apart. But they could well give the moving floor a
the heat generated by radioactivity in
bility, he suggested, was that a sud-
the mantle and, possibly, in the core.
powerful shove, accelerating its usual glacial move-
den release of heat from the core,
There is now little doubt among earth
ment. Indeed the rate of continental drift appears to
forming the inferred superplume of
scientists about the existence of such
have tripled during the mid-Cretaceous period when
the mid-Cretaceous period, could
plumes. The debate concerns the
the superplume was active..
have induced faster circulation in the
depth of their origin. What now ap-
This period has long been recognized as a period
core and disrupted the process re-
pears a minority believes the plumes
in which waters rich in sea life flooded the continents,
sponsible for reversals.
originate in the upper region of the
shedding to the bottom organic debris that formed
The Earth as an Apple
mantle, rather than its base.
such features as the white cliffs of Dover. The chalk of
The earth is often likened to an
Analyses of earthquake shock
such cliffs, "creta" in Latin, gives the Cretaceous
apple. The molten core and its solid
waves show that between those two
period its name.
kernel are enveloped in a rocky man-
parts of the mantle, at a depth of 400
The underwater eruptions of the most recent
tle comparable to an apple's pulp.
miles, there is a fundamental change
superplume, according to newly determined dates,
The earth's crust is hardly much
in composition. The change could rep-
reached a peak about 120 million years ago. By about
thicker, relatively speaking, than an
resent the transition to a more com-
60 million years ago, the superplume had subsided and
apple's skin.
pact form of rock in response to the
conditions have since remained normal, although Dr.
From study of the shock waves
greater pressure, or it could mark a
Roger L. Larson of the University of Rhode Island said
transmitted deep through the earth
change in chemical composition.
that the next such superplume could be "just around
from earthquakes, it appears that
Speedy Continental Drift
the corner," geologically speaking.
between the iron core and the rocky
At the Baltimore meeting it was
Evidence for such stirring events was presented
mantle is a transition zone about 100
evident that most in attendance be-
at two meetings last month, one of the American
miles thick. There, according to tests
lieved the two parts of the mantle are
Geophysical Union in Baltimore and another in Pasa-
reported in March by scientists from
chemically similar, that sea floor
dena, Calif., marking the 100th anniversary of the
the University of California at Berke-
slabs that disappear into the deep
California Institute of Technology.
ley, molten iron under extremely high
ocean trenches sink all the way to the
At the Baltimore meeting, Dr. Larson proposed
pressure interacts chemically with
bottom of the mantle and that at least
silicate rocks like those in the mantle.
that conditions initiated by the last "superplume"
some plumes originate there. This
The transition zone, some believe,
were responsible for creating half the world's oil,
was acknowledged by the leading
may also contain slabs of sea floor
chiefly in the Persian Gulf. He suggested that an
skeptic, Dr. Don. L. Anderson of the
material that have sunk all the way
Caltech Seismological Laboratory.
from the surface. One goal is to see if
He was outgoing president of the
any such material is brought up by
sponsoring organization, the Ameri-
can Geophysical Union, and this
year's winner of its highest honor, the
-Bowie Medal.
Dr. Anderson conceded that great
changes occurred during the mid-
Cretaceous period. The speed of con-
28
CONTINUED
THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR
JUN
!991
L.A. Floats New Plan
"It would make it profitable for them to
To Curb Basin's Smog
reduce emissions," says Robert Wyman, an
attorney representing a group of oil,
aerospace, and other companies that favor
the idea.
ides and hydrocarbons - two key compo-
Yet there is concern about what emis-
By Scott Armstrong
nents of smog - in the four-county Los An-
sions trading would mean for small busi-
geles basin.
Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
nesses. They might be tempted to sell
P.7
It would be the world's first mass mar-
shares and close down, or they may not
LOS ANGELES
ket for pollution trading.
have the financial resources to compete
A special committee appointed by the
with big companies in buying pollution
N what would be the most ambitious
I
AQMD has been studying the idea for
rights. To avoid this, AQMD is looking at
free-market experiment of its kind, au-
months. It is expected to make a recom-
establishing a "smog bank" that would
thorities here are considering setting
mendation to the AQMD board around the
offer pollutions rights to small firms at re-
up a "smog exchange" to try to clean up
end of the year.
duced rates.
the nation's dirtiest skies.
If adopted - and AQMD officials say it
Environmentalists are divided about the
Businesses would be allowed to spew a
has a good chance - the agency would
idea. While some believe in the concept of
certain level of pollutants and could buy or
scrap nearly all the regulations it has been
market incentives to control pollution, they
sell smog shares depending on whether
devising for these polluters for the next 20
want to see how AQMD fashions the pro-
they were ahead or behind in meeting their
years to help meet federal air-quality stan-
gram before going along. One enticing as-
limits. The right to pollute would become
dards.
pect: Environmentalists could buy up
a commodity like soybean futures.
Until the trading concept is approved,
smog shares and keep them out of circula-
The move would mark a dramatic de-
however - something that would require a
tion to help lessen pollution.
parture from conventional efforts to con-
nod from both the state and US Environ-
"This is either the revolutionary system
trol smog by regulating individual pollu-
mental Protection Agency - AQMD will
that is going to clean up the air in Los An-
tants.
continue to work on its conventional rules.
geles, or it is the savings and loan fiasco of
It would provide a far-reaching test of
EPA officials, who are interested in market-
environmental regulation," says Tim Little
the ability of market incentives to curb pol-
based approaches to reducing smog, have
of the Coalition for Clean Air.
lution - a prospect that excites big busi-
been cautiously optimistic about the new
Critics wonder whether emissions trad-
ness, worries some environmentalists, and
approach so far.
ing can be enforced. If a refinery could not
has the rest of the country watching to see
meet its limit and bought pollution rights
what the nation's premier laboratory for
from three auto-body shops, regulators
smog-busting will do.
U
NDER the trading scheme, the
agency would establish a bench-
would have to verify there had been actual
"This goes to the heart of clean-air
mark level of pollution that each
smog reductions, not just shuffled paper.
policy in this country," says Larry Berg, a
company could emit, represented by a cer-
There are other problems, too. Ozone-
political scientist and member of the board
tain number of shares. Each year the firms
forming gases released by a bakery may
of the South Coast Air Quality Management
would have to reduce their nitrogen-oxide
not be as damaging as ones from a plating
District (AQMD), the local authority
emissions by 5 percent and hydrocarbons
plant. Thus, says Dr. William Carter, a
studying the concept.
by about 7 percent.
chemist and member of an AQMD advisory
Emissions trading is an idea that has
To do this, they could either install new
board, trades can't be based solely on the
been around for years but is only begin-
technology, close a plant, or purchase
amount of pollutants given off.
ning to emerge. The federal Clean Air Act
shares from another company that had re-
Management District officials believe
passed last year includes a program allow-
duced emissions beyond its requirement.
they can devise a workable market but ac-
ing pollution trading
Big business considers the current
knowledge enforcement is the Achilles'
among utilities that pro-
regulatory approach too costly: Estimates
heel. Jack Broadbent, AQMD program
duce sulfur dioxide, a
of complying with the AQMD's present 20-
manager for market-incentives develop-
source of acid rain.
year plan run from $4.9 billion to $10 bil-
ment, calls it the "overriding consider-
Several cities operate
lion a year.
ation," though the agency will also evaluate
pollution "offset" pro-
Instead of mandating a technology or
the plan based on cost, impact on jobs, and
grams. Under these, a
process, such as the current rules do,
other factors.
firm wanting to build a new plant is re-
emissions trading would allow companies
While emissions trading might reduce
quired to reduce smog in an area to make
to choose how to meet limits. There would
overall smog, a factory that buys rights to
up for pollution the expansion would
be a financial incentive for them to clean
pollute could endanger the health of resi-
create. It can do this by buying smog rights
up stacks, since they could accumulate
dents in a local area. Mr. Broadbent says
from another company that has closed or
valuable shares by surpassing prescribed
"threshold" levels may have to be estab-
cut emissions.
limits.
lished to avoid local pollution "hot spots."
The market being considered by the
All of this underscores the complexity
AQMD would go way beyond this. It would
of shaping a market in dirty air - at least
institute smog trading among as many as
one politically acceptable.
24,000 factories, refineries, bakeries, and
As a dubious Larry Berg puts it: "We
other facilities that produce nitrogen ox-
better get to the bottom of all this before
we move forward."
27
The New Blork Times
JUN
!991
CONTINUED
tinental drift increased threefold, he
At the Baltimore meeting Dr. Mal-
Plume advocates believe such ris-
said in an interview, and new analy-
colm S. Pringle of the United States
ing material plays a role in continen-
ses indicate a migration of the plan-
Geological Survey estimated that the
tal drift, creating a flow beneath the
et's spin axis.
volume of the Ontong-Java Plateau is
spreading ocean floor that gives its
The cause, he believes, was the
50 times greater than that of the
rigid plates an extra push. They also
breakup of the supercontinent, Pan-
Deccan Traps. In a process that he
believe that a plume may push up a
gaea, to form the continents of today,
called "rolling thunder," he said that
large region of the earth's surface.
initiating large-scale "subduction" in
eruption of the four large plateaus of
G. F. Davies of the Australian Nation-
which the sea floor descends into the
the Southern Hemisphere proceeded
al University proposed that a region
earth, as occurs now around much of
systematically from east to west. The
5,000 feet higher than the rest of the
the Pacific. The formation of plumes
eruptions began 135 million years ago
sea floor, extending 6,000 miles from
could have been triggered from
with the Parana-Etendecka Platform
French Polynesia almost to Japan, is
above by the reorganization of the
in the South Pacific and ended 115
a remnant of the mid-Cretacedus su-
earth's rigid plates as they drifted
million years ago with formation of
perplume.
apart, he said. He believes the plumes
the Kerguelen Plateau in the south-
He also pointed out that rock from
formed at the base of the upper man-
ern Indian Ocean.
plumes such as the one that formed
tle, 400 miles down, rather than far
Dr. Larson has estimated the
Hawaii displays far more variability
deeper.
amount of lava spread onto. the
than that along midocean ridges, pre-
After the concept of continental
earth's surface by these mid-Creta-
sumably because plumes scavenge
drift, or "plate tectonics," was ac-
ceous eruptions, assuming that half
material from the base of the mantle.
cepted in the 1970's, geophysicists
the South Pacific plateaus had al-
Sea-floor rocks have been subject to
suggested that the midocean ridges
ready descended into the earth as the
elaborate analyses in search of elues
that formed as continents pulled
sea floor was drawn down into deep
to their origin, including traces of sea
apart could have displaced enough
ocean trenches. He calculates that
floor that descended into the interior
water to cause the rise in sea level
oceanic eruptions, including those
long ago.
known to have occurred during the
along midocean ridges, increased 50
A number of papers presented in
Cretaceous period. Another explana-
to 75 percent during the mid-Creta-
Baltimore sought to estimate how
tion for the sea rise has now become
ceous period. That of the Ontong-Java
much volcanic carbon might have
available: the vast extent of the un-
lava, he believes, was almost 40 mil-
reached the mid-Cretaceous atmo-
derwater plateaus formed at this pe-
lion cubic miles.
sphere, combining with oxygen to
riod.
A major contribution of Dr. Ander-
produce a "super greenhouse effect."
New dates for these outpourings of
son's laboratory has been studying
A report by Dr. Ken Caldeira and Dr.
lava and new estimates of their vol-
earthquake tremors whose paths tra-
Michael R. Rampino of New York
ume were presented at the Baltimore
versed deep parts of the earth. Be-
University estimated that carbon di-
meeting. These were based partly on
cause hot rock transmits such waves
oxide in the air could have been 20
samples extracted from the plateaus
more slowly than cold rock it has
times the pre-industrial value, rais-
by the Joides Resolution, the oceano-
been possible to estimate tempera-
ing global temperatures about 18 de-
graphic vessel operated by the Ocean
tures throughout the interior
grees Fahrenheit.
Drilling Program, an international
Two members of his group at Cal-
Dr. M.A. Arthur of Pennsylvania
effort based in Texas. Beneath mido-
tech, Dr. Toshiro Tanimoto and Dr.
State University put the carbon diox-
cean water depths the ship is able to
Yu-Shen Zhang, reported a critical
ide level at 8 to 12 times normal.
drill through thousands of feet of sedi-
finding from these studies. It has long
Much of this was said to have come
ment and into the underlying rock.
been known that lava is rising into the
from coastal volcanoes enriched with
The largest submarine plateau on
midocean ridges as the oceans
carbon derived from sediment in sea
earth now appears to be the Ontong-
spread apart. When such spreading
floor descending beneath them.
Java Plateau, straddling the Equator
was first proposed in the 1960's it was
In the May 30 issue of Nature,
east of New Guinea and north of the
argued that this intrusion of lava is
French scientists reported that
Solomon Islands. Last year the Joides
pushing the sea floor plates apart and
Mount Etna is a rich source of carbon
Resolution drilled five holes into that
is the cause of continental drift.
dioxide, not only from its crater but
rise. Analysis and dating of the cores
Later it was proposed that the
also via diffusion through its flanks.
from these holes, and of those from
oceans are being pulled apart as the
An accompanying commentary pro-
three already drilled by the ship's
sea floor, having migrated far from
posed that, before the industrial nevo-
predecessor, the Glomar Challenger,
the region of its volcanic birth and
lution, the world's volcanoes contrib-
have made it possible to document
having accumulated a heavy burden
uted 35 to 65 percent of what was
the history and development of the
of sediment, sinks by its own weight
needed to balance the loss of carbon
plateau.
into the depths of the earth's mantle.
in sedimentation.
The 'Rolling Thunder' Process
An analogy would be a bath towel
One hope for determining whether
thrown into a filled tub. When one end
the upper and lower mantle differ
The Ontong-Java plateau, more
becomes soaked and heavy it drags
than twice the area of Alaska, has
chemically is analysis of specimens
the rest down. Dr. Tanimoto and Dr.
been shown by seismic sounding to be
blasted from deep in the earth by the
Zhang, on the basis of seismic data,
more than 25 miles thick at its center.
eruptions producing diamonds. Last
found that hot material was rising
month American and French scien-
It was formed by extraordinary out-
into the ridges from depths less than
tists reported analyses of 324 frag-
pourings of lava between 120 million
60 miles.
ments from such a formation at Ja-
and 125 million years ago. Since then,
Yet they were able to trace the hot
gersfontein, South Africa.
as it was slowly carried north by
plumes under Hawaii, the Azores and
The samples had been altered by
motion of the sea floor, it has accumu-
Iceland to depths greater than 100
the extreme pressure assumed to oc-
lated a covering of ocean sediment,
miles. Below that, they explained, the
cur at depths as great as 300 miles.
mostly chalk and ooze, more than
plumes became too narrow for detec-
They contained minerals supposedly
3,000 feet thick.
tion by their method. Thus it has not
derived from sinking sea-floor slabs,
A plateau formed more recently-in
so far been possible to settle the
but were not sufficient to determine
North America, some 14 million to 16
plume argument by determining
whether those slabs had collected on
million years ago, and blanketed
their depth, but the findings favor the
the bottom of the upper mantle or
Washington and Oregon with 77,000
"pull" rather than "push" theory of
were on their way to the bottom.
cubic miles of basalt. Far more ex-
plate motion.
tensive were the Deccan Traps de-
posited on western India 65 million
CONTINUED
29
years ago.
CONTINUED
The New York Times
JUN I I !991
Sea floor
Drilling
Defining Past Eruptions
sites
Holes sunk by deep-sea drilling ships
at eight South Pacific sites have
shown the extent of a giant outpouring
of lava that 120 million years ago
formed the world's largest plateau.
ONTONG JAVA
Drilling at four sites, shown at left,
PLATEAU
penetrated its eastern
slope.
0
100
200
300
400 miles
Pacific Ocean
EQUATOR
NEW GUINEA
Indian Ocean
AUSTRALIA
Part of the plateau, mapped below, rises sharply from a
depth of about 14,000 feet to within 6,600 feet of the surface.
6,560
feet
14,500
ONTONG JAVA
PLATEAU
6,560 ft.
500
14,500
feet
6,560 ft.
Source: Ocean Drilling Program
Megan Jaegerman/The New York Times
30
The Washington Post
JUL 25 I99I
Circulation 824,282
Jessica Mathews
AM
Gorilla in the Greenhouse
Up and down the East Coast, gardeners are
Heseltine fired back a letter to the White
baffled by flowers blooming two months and
House described by British government sources
more ahead of schedule. In my own garden,
as "unusually tough and personal," enclosing a
October chrysanthemums were in bloom on the
speech just delivered by Prime Minister John
Fourth of July. Greenhouse warming leaps, un-
Major. Apparently unconcerned by the possibili-
bidden, to mind. One cannot help wondering
ty of a direct conflict with the United States one
whether the plants are sensing a climate pattern
week before the summit, Major made clear that
ahead of human temperature measurements.
the rest of the world views the United States as
Measurements also show a warming trend,
the 800-pound gorilla of global carbon dioxide
but not quite so dramatically. Globally, 1990 was
emissions, responsible for a quarter of the
the warmest year since measuring began in the
world's total, as compared with the European
1850s. The 1980s were the warmest decade in
Community's 13 percent. In several not-so-sub-
that period-about half a degree warmer than
tle references to the United States, Major em-
the preceding 40 years. The six warmest years
phasized Britain's intention to control its emis-
in the last 140 were '90, '88, '87, '83, '89 and
sions "if others do their part."
'81. The snow is melting earlier in Alaska, and
Without Britain or Japan in its corner, the
Arctic sea ice is retreating.
United States' principal allies in resisting green-
These are some of the reasons Europe is
house commitments in the broader global nego-
impatient to begin controlling greenhouse gas
tiations are Saudi Arabia and the Soviet Union.
emissions. There are still many puzzles and
Saudi Arabia opposes any plan that might lower
uncertainties, but the science of global warming
consumption of its only product. The Soviet
is far more robust than most Americans, includ-
Union cannot cope with additional requirements
ing the president, have been led to believe.
of any kind, though improved energy efficiency
Bush has allowed John Sununu to overpower
would greatly benefit its economy. The rest of
the world finds it hard to see why the United
conflicting views within the administration. The
States belongs in this company. The consensus
chief of staff's obsession with the subject is by
view held by Europe, Japan, Canada and a
now well-known. It is so strong that several top
growing number of developing countries is to
officials have decided that there is no point in
ready a treaty, including emission-control goals,
contesting the issue. Secretary of State James
for signing at next June's U.N. Conference on
A. Baker III took the extraordinary step of
Environment and Development, the so-called
opting out by legally recusing himself on the
"Earth Summit."
grounds of a conflict of interest due to his
This last of the major U.N. conferences of the
personal oil and gas holdings. (He has never
century could pose a problem for Bush if the
explained why such a conflict would not extend
climate negotiations continue to make progress
to Middle Eastern diplomacy.)
despite U.S. opposition. The Brazil meeting
At the G-7 summit last week, the United
would provide an unparalleled photo opportunity
States was alone in preferring environmental
on the brink of the presidential campaign if
rhetoric to action. The strength of European
several agreements are ready for signing and
annoyance was revealed by unusual on-the-
most of the world's leaders attend. Or the
record complaints about the U.S. posture. "The
president could be forced to stay home to avoid
U.S. wants to avoid anything other than general-
embracing a treaty he has resolutely opposed,
ization. Everybody else wants to make a com-
offering his Democratic opponent a powerful
mitment," was how one European official, quot-
argument that the "environment president"
ed in the Los Angeles Times, put it.
turned out not to be one.
Heretofore, Britain has always acceded to
There is not much time left to adjust the U.S.
U.S. pressure to block international greenhouse
stance. It was just six years ago that scientists
commitments, but it has served notice that it
will no longer. After being rebuffed in a recent
effort to find a compromise between the United
States and the European positions, British Envi-
ronment Secretary Michael Heseltine learned
CONTINUED
that Sununu had dismissed him as a freelancer
who did not reflect his government's views.
10
Chicago Tribune
Circulation 740,713
JUL 2 4 !991
Los Alamos radiation probe
OKd after brain cancers
P.4
LOS ALAMOS, N.M.-Federal and state
officials said they will try to determine
whether radiation released by the nuclear
laboratory that dominates this community is
linked to brain tumors in residents. The U.S.
Department of Energy and the New Mexico
Department of Health said Monday the
study has two goals: to evaluate radiation
released from the Los Alamos National Lab-
oratory and to determine whether an exces-
sive rate of brain cancer exists in the city of
18,000. A non-scientific survey by a local
sculptor found more than 40 possible
victims. A physician who examined medical
records of 23 of them found nine with pri-
mary brain malignancies, meaning the cancer
began in the brain.
9
EPA in the News
THE WASHINGTON POST A24 SUNDAY, JULY 14, 1991
Britain Censures U.S. Global
Warming View
Cabinet Secretary's Letter, Prime Minister's Speech
Indicate Break With Previous Policy
By Glenn Frankel
Washington Post Foreign Service
LONDON, July 13-Britain has
sent a strongly worded letter to the
More research on
White House criticizing the Amer-
ican position on global warming and
emissions is
signaling that Britain will no longer
side automatically with the United
needed, says
States on the issue at such interna-
tional conferences as this week's
Prime Minister
Group of Seven summit here, ac-
cording to informed British sources.
John Major, but
They said British environment
secretary Michael Heseltine sent
"research cannot
the letter to White House Chief of
Staff John Sununu earlier this week.
excuse inaction-
It accompanied a copy of a speech
Prime Minister John Major gave
the threat is too
Monday in which he called on the
United States to join Britain in set-
serious."
ting limits on carbon dioxide emis-
sions, an issue the Bush administra-
tion so far has resisted taking action
of the world community on the is-
who did not accurately reflect the
on.
Major, at a conference organized
sue and to offer Britain's help in
Major government's position.
by the Sunday Times, noted that
arranging a compromise.
But Major's speech, which also
Heseltine saw a number of senior
called for the establishment of a
the United States accounts for 23
percent of the world's CO2 emis-
administration officials, including
British equivalent of the EPA, made
sions-by far the largest polluter-
Sununu, Office of Management and
clear the prime minister and the
Budget Director Richard G. Dar-
and said, "The world looks to them
environment secretary are largely
man and Environmental Protection
for decisive leadership on this issue,
in agreement on the issue.
Agency Administrator William K.
"In the past, Britain covered for
as on others." He also said that
Reilly. Sources said his most con-
the U.S. and served as the honest
while more research was needed on
tentious meeting was with Sununu,
broker between the U.S. and Eu-
the issue, "research cannot excuse
who has insisted that scientific ev-
inaction-the threat is too serious."
rope," said Daniel Becker, director
idence is not yet conclusive in doc-
The speech marked a sharp
of the global warming and energy
break with the policy of his prede-
umenting the so-called "greenhouse
program for the Sierra Club. "Ma-
effect" and who has taken the lead
cessor, Margaret Thatcher, whose
jor's speech signals the end of the
in opposing setting a U.S. target for
government gave virtually automat-
road. It shows the extent to which
the reduction of carbon dioxide
ic support to the United States
the United States is now isolated on
emissions.
when global warming and other en-
this issue."
Sources said Heseltine came
vironmental issues arose at confer-
At their Paris summit two years
ences.
away from his meetings with U.S.
ago, the leaders of the Group of
The speech and the Heseltine let-
officials disappointed by their ap-
Seven major industrialized nations
ter are the latest round in a British
parent unwillingness to recognize
promised "decisive action" to curb
campaign to compel the Bush ad-
that they face a serious political
global warming. Major, who is host-
ministration to reconsider its stand
problem on the global warming is-
ing this year's summit, has prom-
on global warming. Heseltine, who
sue. His disappointment was com-
ised he will raise the issue again this
pounded after he returned to Lon-
week. He has also said he will ask
became environment secretary af-
don and heard that Sununu had at-
the G-7 leaders to pledge to attend
ter helping engineer Thatcher's
tacked him at a White House meet-
next year's environmental summit
downfall last November, traveled to
ing by saying the environment sec-
in Rio de Janeiro. The United States
Washington last month to try to
retary did not know what he was
in the past has been reluctant to
convince the White House that it
talking about on the emissions issue
send high-level officials to such ses-
had become isolated from the rest
and that Heseltine was a freelancer
sions because it has often taken an
EPA in the News
contit
unpopular and isolated position on
the issues under discussion, admin-
istration officials have said.
Britain has committed itself to
stabilizing carbon dioxide emissions
at their present level by the year
2005, while other European Com-
munity members say they will do so
by 2000. The United States has set
no target, and U.S. environmental
groups contend that current admin-
istration policies would lead to a 15
percent increase in emissions by
2005
Officials in Heseltine's ministry
confirmed the sending of the letter,
which was first reported in the
Times of London. Although they
would not divulge its contents, of-
ficials said the Times article, which
characterized the letter as "unusu-
ally tough and personal," was sub-
stantially accurate.
One British source said the
speech and the accompanying letter
amounted to "not a rupture" be-
tween Britain and the United
States, "but a toughening of the
posture."
Cond
4-15-91
FACT SHEET
The recent National Academy of Sciences (NAS) report on climate
change is not inconsistent with the Administration's approach to
this important issue and is a contribution to our growing
understanding of global climate change. The study, "Policy
Implications of Greenhouse Warming," summarizes the science and the
limitations of our knowledge and recommends a number of actions
that could be taken to meet the challenge of climate change. It
highlights the uncertainties in modeling and the current
inconsistencies between trends in temperature and accumulation of
greenhouse gases. In setting a least cost hierarchy, it rejects
options requiring great expense.
Bush Administration policies, including measures enacted in
the Clean Air Act and proposed in the National Energy
Strategy, are projected to maintain U.S. greenhouse gas
emissions through the year 2030 at current levels, even
accounting for growth in economic activity. The NAS study
calls for a 10 to 40 percent reduction in greenhouse gas
emissions at a constant 1990 activity level. Using the NAS
static assumptions ("no-growth") approach, which does not
factor economic growth into the greenhouse emissions
calculation, Administration policies will yield greenhouse
emissions reductions comfortably within the range advocated
by the NAS study.
Targets and timetables for the future reduction or limitation
of greenhouse gases as an aggregate, or of carbon dioxide
alone, are not advocated by the NAS study.
Elements of the comprehensive approach, endorsed by the
Administration, are highlighted. The study considers climate
change in terms of all greenhouse gases (using CO2
equivalent), not CO₂ alone, and the contribution of CFCs,
which are important greenhouse gases.
The Administration's policies address all greenhouse gases.
Precursors of ozone and nitrogen oxides are controlled in the
Clean Air Act. Methane will be reduced by proposed rules on
landfill emissions. CO2 will be reduced by various energy
efficiency measures and by the powerful incentives from the
Clean Air Act's caps on utility emissions plus the flexibility
allowed in achieving those caps. CO₂ will also be reduced by
tree planting. CFCs will be phased out by the Clean Air Act's
provisions. A tax on production during the phase-out will
accelerate these reductions.
Efforts to limit deforestation, and modest domestic and
international reforestation efforts, are recommended in the
NAS report. The Administration has proposed a multi-year
reforestation proposal to plant one billion trees per year on
1.5 million acres, and to improve forest management practices.
The United States also supports debt-for-nature swaps, and is
active in pushing for a global forestry agreement.
A strong research program is endorsed by the NAS panel as an
important element of our response to the possibility of
greenhouse warming. The U.S. is currently investing almost
$1.2 billion in our global climate change research program,
which includes studies of the scientific, social and economic
questions surrounding climate change and possible policy
responses.
Research and development priorities cited by the NAS study in
areas such as solar energy and other alternative energy
sources, and energy efficiency are receiving additional
resources in the President's FY 1992 budget. The budget
includes strong efforts in biomass resources, and expansion
of solar and other alternative energy research efforts through
cost-shared collaborative ventures.
The study recommends R&D into the possibilities for adaptation
and the need to study geoengineering options. Because natural
sources account for 96 percent of the annual CO₂ flux, it
makes sense to investigate these options -- although it would
be premature to pursue them at this time.
Continued development of nuclear power is strongly advocated
by the NAS study. The President's National Energy Strategy
supports the development of a new generation of safe nuclear
reactors.
President Bush has established a comprehensive strategy for action
on climate change which is outlined in the brochure America's
Climate Change Strategy, and will be implemented through the
National Energy Strategy (NES), the Clean Air Act, and various
other means. The strategy is part of the Administration's
commitment to responsible stewardship of our planet, which includes
the promotion of economic growth and sound environmental policies.
EPA in
nu, however, could point with
to some parts of the study. Fo
Global Warming: A New Warning
the commission declined to
explicit target dates or percentag
the reduction of CO₂ emissio
A report on the greenhouse effect could prod the White House
steps, which have been taken by m
clique that wants to go slow on protecting the environment
ropean nations, are firmly opposed
Administration. Moreover, the U.S. h.
By RICHARD LACAYO
in February. To achieve a 30% increase
ready adopted some of the other meas
in automobile fuel efficiency, the panel
that the report urges, including investin
t may not be easy to determine if the
called for "tax incentives" or regulation,
global climate research (to the tune of
greenhouse effect is causing a world-
the latter a notion that makes the Presi-
billion) and planting millions of trees that
wide rise in global temperatures, but the
dent flinch. The report also suggested
can become storehouses for CO₂. Though
heated atmosphere around the White
raising overall automobile mileage stan-
Bush undertook those actions for other
House has been unmistakable whenever
dards from the current level of 27.5 to
reasons, they double as defenses against
that topic-or any other environmental
32.5 m.p.g. The President has so far re-
global warming. The panel also used a
question-was raised. From the earliest
sisted that move, though members of the
cost-benefit analysis that takes into ac-
days of the Bush Administra-
count the price of implementing
tion, there has been heavy fric-
anr
its recommendations, an ap-
tion between William Reilly. di-
proach that Darman and Su-
rector of the Environmental
nunu favor.
Protection Agency, and a White
The report's main benefit
House faction led by White
could be to reinforce a new spirit
House chief of staff John Su-
of cooperation between the
nunu and Budget Director Rich-
sniping Administration factions.
ard Darman, who are apt to see
Last year Reilly won a major vic-
red when they hear the word
tory when Congress passed the
green. For them, policies de-
Clean Air Act over Darman's
signed to protect the environ-
objections. But Darman and
ment look like brakes on eco-
Sununu had seemed to have the
nomic growth and therefore
upper hand, and the President's
should be implemented cau-
ear, on global warming. Bush
tiously, if they are put into effect
campaigned on the promise to
at all.
curb the increase of greenhouse
Last week a panel of the Na-
gases, which are produced chief-
tional Academy of Sciences is-
ly by the burning of coal and oil.
sued a long-awaited report on
But the emissions are the ex-
global warming-the theory that
haust of an industrial economy
a buildup of carbon dioxide and
that Bush is loath to regulate.
other so-called greenhouse gas-
His instinct was strengthened by
es in the atmosphere is causing
the fact that computer models
temperatures to climb, threaten-
predicting the impact of global
ing crops and coastal areas that
EPA chief William Reilly aboard oil platform in the Gulf of Mexico
warming are imprecise, leaving
could be drowned under rising
scientists unsure just how bad
oceans if the polar ice caps melt.
the problem is likely to get. Su-
Though both sides could find
A scientific panel insists that
nunu seized upon those uncer-
some support for their positions
uncertainty about climbing temperatures
tainties, insisting it would be
in the study, its findings and rec-
ommendations could prod the
should not be an excuse for delaying
foolish to take costly preventive
measures against a calamity that
go-slow faction in the White
action to lessen its possible effects
might never happen.
House.
But during the past year. Ad-
While acknowledging that
ministration infighting on the
predictions of global warming are highly
panel met with him privately at the
greenhouse effect seems to have subsided.
uncertain, the panel insists that should
White House last week to urge the idea.
"Everyone is getting along swimmingly,"
not be used as an excuse for delaying ac-
The report brushed aside claims,
insists a Sununu aide. While that may be an
tion to lessen its possible effects. The
many emanating from the White House,
overstatement, it appears that global
panel concluded there is a "reasonable
that reducing greenhouse emissions
warming will no longer be a cause for con-
chance" that by the middle of the next
would be wildly expensive and a blow to
flict in the President's immediate circle-
century global temperatures will rise any-
economic growth. In February the Ad-
at least for now. Pollsters tell the White
where from 2° F to 9° F. That threat, the
ministration trotted out estimates that
House that the issue is not high on the pub-
panel declared, is "sufficient to justify ac-
energy-tax increases of as much as $250
lic's list of environmental concerns, rank-
tion now."
for each ton of removed gases would be
ing below more immediate problems like
Then the panel laid out the action it
needed to curb emissions significantly.
waste disposal, pollution and the disap-
wants, the first time a scientific body has
To the contrary, the panel estimated that
pearance of natural areas. With no pres-
issued recommendations on the subject.
reduction of between 10% and 40% in
sure from below and little inclination
Basically, they add up to taking out what
greenhouse emissions could be achieved
to move at the top, the Administration is
the panel called "insurance" against the
by doing such comparatively simple
likely to keep the warming issue on a low
worst-case scenario of global warming.
things as making buildings and power
boil. Will that be enough to stave off a
Among other things, the commission
plants more energy efficient at little or
change in the weather? Keep an eye on the
urged the White House to toughen the
no cost to the economy.
thermometer.
Reported by Michael Duffy/
inadequate energy plan that it unveiled
The faction led by Darman and Sunu-
Washington
32
TIME. APRIL 22. 1991
EPA in the News
ounterproposal that Walpole and
"I think his political inexperience
Norfolk residents made when the
is showing," one source said. "All
governor proposed a scaled-down
this for a campaign promise? He's al-
landfill for the Walpole site.
ready broken his promise not to cut
local aid. Now, he's choosing to keep
Rep. Francis. H. Woodward (D-
this one? I think the message it
Walpole) said that while "I am not
sends is that if you make a big
sure the judge will lift the moratori-
enough stink, we'll back off."
um," Walpole and Norfolk residents
Sources also said that a "backup"
"would be happy to have the oppor-
bill to transfer the Walpole land to
tunity under the governor's proposal
to bring our ideas to the table with
the MWRA is being drafted by Sen.
William MacLean (D-Fairhaven),
everybody there, rather than talking
whose district does not include com-
to one side at a time."
munities that get their water and
No data were available yesterday
sewer services from the MWRA.
as to just how many more projects
Sen. Christopher Lane (R-Medfield)
may be put on hold because of Maz-
has prepared a bill to site the landfill
zone's order, but a study by the Met-
at Rowe Quarry but said yesterday
ropolitan Area Planning Council con-
he will file it only if MacLean files
cluded that in 42 of the communities
his bill.
that are part of the MWRA water
and sewer district, 5,215 housing
Rep. Kevin Fitzgerald (D-Bos-
units and 49 commercial properties
ton), a member of the House leader-
would be slowed or halted because of
ship, said there will be meetings
the ban. The figures do not include
among lawmakers this week to de-
Boston's projects.
cide what steps to take next.
"Clearly, we share in the blame,"
One project put on hold is the
Fitzgerald said. "Now, we have to
Seawinds in Quincy. Gary Roman, an
figure out just what we're going to
official with the realty interest of a
do to get this resolved once and for
Holyoke bank that acquired the
all."
eight-story residential building
through a foreclosure, said that he
has been denied occupancy permits
Communities listed
because of the ban at a time when he
has buyers for 55 of the 123 units.
Following are the commu-
nities affected by the US Dis-
"I just want it solved"
trict Court's ban on new sewer
"I don't blame anybody. I just
connections for commercial
want it solved," he said. "We're a
and industrial users and for
bank. These are troubled times for
residential permits of 2,000
banks. It's not the time for us to be
gallons a day or more:
sitting there with something we can't
Arlington, Ashland, Bed-
sell when we have ready buyers."
ford, Belmont, Boston, Brain-
Roman noted that it will also af-
tree, Brookline, Burlington,
fect the city of Quincy because al-
Cambridge, Canton, Chelsea,
though the bank intends to pay its
Dedham, Everett, Framing-
tax bill on the property, it also in-
ham, Hingham, Holbrook,
tends to seek an abatement.
Lexington, Malden, Medford,
Melrose, Milton, Natick,
"The building is worthless as is,"
Needham, Newton, Norwood,
he said.
Quincy, Randolph, Reading,
Several people on Beacon Hill
Revere, Somerville, Stoneham,
who have been following the landfill
Stoughton, Wakefield, Wal-
siting dispute for several years said
pole, Waltham, Watertown,
privately that Weld is setting a very
Wellesley, Westwood, Wey-
dangerous precedent by siding with
mouth, Wilmington, Winches-
Walpole and abutting communities
ter, Winthrop and Woburn.
at the expense of more than 40 oth-
ers that will see economic opportuni-
ENd
ties limited by the sewer ban.
THE WASHINGTON POST
R
THURSDAY, JANUARY 10, 1991 A3
Global Warming Continues, but Cause Is Uncertain
A WARMING PLANET
Buildup of Pollutants in Earth's Atmosphere Studied; Definitive Evidence Is Lacking
T
his chart looks at average annual
global air temperature since the 1880s.
The zero line, shown in white, represents
the mean temperature on the planet. The
By William Booth
The observed warming may in-
Based on computer simulations
loons launched by Angell and col-
erratic black line shows how far average
Washington Post Staff Writer
stead be some completely natural,
on how the planet operates, an in-
leagues at NOAA confirmed that
global temperature was above or below
though poorly understood, phenom-
ternational group of researchers
1990 was the warmest year not
The average temperatures on
the mean each year.
enon. But there is a growing feeling
sponsored by the United Nations
only at the earth's surface but in
earth in 1990 were the highest
among many researchers that the
predicted that the average global
the planet's atmosphere, from
+.50
since record keeping began, con-
warming trend may be fueled by
temperatures would increase be-
about 5,000 to 30,000 feet. Simi-
warmer
tinuing a warming trend first de-
+.40
human pollutants.
tween 2 and 6 degrees Fahrenheit
larly, Angell said, the warming
tected in the 1980s.
"I have been skeptical about say-
by the end of the 21st century, if
trend of the 1980s was also ob-
+.30
The world's two leading author-
ing it's an enhanced greenhouse
gases such as carbon dioxide con-
served in the atmosphere.
ities on global surface temperatures
+.20
effect," said Jim Angell, a climate
tinue to accumulate at projected
Satellite data collected by Roy
reported these findings jointly yes-
expert at the National Oceanic and
rates.
Spencer at NASA's Marshall Space
+.10
terday, but said it is not clear that
Atmospheric Administration's Air
The United States will host an
Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala.,
the cause of the warming is the
Resources Laboratory in Silver
international meeting in February
also confirmed that the atmosphere
buildup of pollutants in the atmos-
Degrees Celsius
mean temperature
0
Spring. "But it's getting harder to
to discuss possible responses to
was warm in the 1980s. However,
-.10
phere.
defend that skepticism."
global warming. In past discussions,
Spencer's satellites showed that
-.20
The analyses were done by the
While uncertain over the cause
the Bush administration has re-
1990 was not the hottest year, but
British Meteorological Office and
of the warming, both the British
sisted attempts to reduce carbon
the fourth warmest. Spencer is not
-.30
the National Aeronautics and Space
and American researchers yester-
dioxide emission, arguing that more
sure why his temperature record is
-.40
Administration's Goddard Institute
day agreed that 1990 beat out
research is needed to prove that
different.
cooler
for Space Studies in New York, us-
1988, which was previously the
warming will occur.
Spencer said scientists don't re-
-.50
ing a network of thermometers on
1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
hottest year on record. Indeed, six
James Hansen, head of NASA's
ally understand natural fluctuations
land and sea.
of the seven warmest years in over
Goddard Institute, stressed that a
in climate. Records have been kept
SOURCE: NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
Most climate experts say they
a century occurred in the 1980s.
single record-breaking year was
only since the late 1800s. Indeed,
THE WASHINGTON POST
lack definitive evidence that the
In descending order the seven
meaningless. Rather, he said, sci-
there was a distinct warm peak in
observed global warming is caused
warmest years on record are
entists were most interested in-
the 1930s and 1940s, which gave
is so little proof, but the possible
whether the decreased snow cover
by pollutants such as carbon diox-
1990, 1988, 1983, 1987, 1944,
and concerned about-what they
way to 20 years of relatively cool
consequences are so severe."
was a result of higher tempera
ide, a gas that has been steadily
1989 and 1981.
view as a warming trend.
temperatures, followed by the
Last year also had by far the low-
tures, or the cover actually contrib-
increasing in the atmosphere be-
Angell and his colleagues, how-
The warm weather was most ev-
warming of the 1970s and 1980s.
est annual snow cover ever rec-
uted to the warming. The less snow
cause of the burning of forests and
ever, believe that it may take an-
ident over the United States and
If it was a purely scientific thing,
orded for the Northern Hemi-
cover, the more the earth's surface
fossil fuels, and which acts like a
other decade to know for certain
southern Canada, Europe, weste
say I'm not convinced. I'm skep-
sphere, according to analyst David
heats up. The more snow cover, the
blanket to trap heat close to the
whether pollutants are causing the
Siberia and the Far East.
1," Spencer said. "But I'm just
Robinson of Rutgers University.
more sunlight is reflected back into
earth's surface.
warming.
Readings taken with weat
d I'm not a policy-maker. There
Robinson said he is not sure
space.
CORRECTIONS
Southeastern Sky to Be Dresse
A Boston Globe article published
section misstated
of
Ba
By Curt
BUSH LIBRARY COPY - PRESERVATION
The New York Times
JAN 13 1991
Hopeful E.P.A. Report Fans a Debate as Talks on
By WILLIAM K. STEVENS
A18
Some experts on the international
politics of global warming say the find-
The Environmental Protection
ings of the agency's report could
Warming Near
Agency says that at a time when most
prompt the United States to drop its ob-
other countries have only pledged to
jection to targets. In this view, Wash-
that protects living things from ultra-
take action, the United States has al-
ington might recapture leadership on
violet radiation. But they also are even
ready taken steps that will keep emis-
the issue of global warming if it pro-
more powerful and long-lived heat-
sions of heat-trapping atmospheric
posed an overall target that included
trappers than carbon dioxide.
gases at current levels for the next two
all the gases implicated in global
According to a report on the study by
decades.
warming - a target that the E.P.A.
Alex Cristofaro, director of the agen-
The conclusions are playing a crucial
study suggests it could meet.
cy's air and energy policy division, re-
role in the United States' preparations
Sununu Opposes Targets
searchers calculated the effect of the
for an international conference in
recent Government measures on emis-
Washington next month to negotiate a
"If they don't do it, they're going to
sions of the various greenhouse gases.
treaty to control emissions of the
have a very hard time getting back in
It converted all the gases to carbon-
gases, which scientists say could cause
the game seriously, in terms of playing
dioxide equivalents, in terms of heat-
a catastrophic warming of the Earth in
a leading role in shaping an interna-
trapping capacity.
the 21st century unless something is
tional approach," said William Nitze, a
It found that the United States contri-
done to curb them.
former State Department official who
bution to the greenhouse effect, ex-
More than 20 industrialized countries
was responsible for coordinating Gov-
pressed in carbon-dioxide equivalents,
have committed themselves to stabiliz-
ernment policy on global warming and
ing or reducing emissions of carbon
who represented the United States in
would be about the same in 2000 as in
dioxide, the gas that would play the
international meetings on the subject.
1987, and that it would either drop
largest role in the warming. The Bush
He left the Administration last Septem-
slightly or show an increase of about 4
ber to become president of the non-
percent by 2010. This could change, the
profit Alliance to Save Energy, based
study said, if the new Government
in Washington.
measures do not materialize as ex-
pected or if the economy grows faster
Should there be
Whether the Administration will now
than expected.
embrace targets in light of the report's
goals on carbon
finding remains to be seen. The idea
Can It Be Painless?
has considerable support among offi-
One Government official, who spoke
dioxide? And at
cials of Government agencies who are
on condition that he not be identified,
discussing what the United States'
said that the study's conclusion means
stance should be, Administration offi-
that "the problem is possibly less in-
what cost?
cials say. But higher officials, including
tractable than it might appear at first
John H. Sununu, the President's chief
glance." He said it suggests that "we
of staff, have successfully opposed any
could quite painlessly" take further ac-
Administration has opposed such a tar-
targets in the past. Mr. Sununu said
tion to limit greenhouse emissions over
through an aide that he was aware of
the next few years.
get for carbon dioxide, arguing that the
the report but would not comment on it.
extent of the problem is too uncertain
Environmental skeptics doubt that a
to justify painful and costly control
Mr. Reilly says that while the study
United States pledge to stabilize its
is not yet "fully researched" or scien-
measures now.
overall greenhouse emissions by the
tifically vetted, "it's the best we have."
year 2000 would be a sufficient re-
Reliability Is Questioned
He said: "In the coming weeks, we
sponse. "It would still be a consider-
The E.P.A. study is already generat-
will be reviewing it with other agencies
ably weaker position than that adopted
ing argument. Some critics question its
to see whether this represents a realis-
by the Europeans," said Michael Op-
reliability and assail it as a ploy to jus-
tic scenario. I think it does."
penheimer, a senior scientist and ex-
tify what they see as the Administra-
Recently adopted measures that the
pert on global warming at the Environ-
tion's go-slow policy on global warm-
E.P.A. study says will limit the United
mental Defense Fund, an environmen-
ing. They say that even if the findings
States contribution to the greenhouse
tal research and advocacy group.
are reliable, enough of the gases are al-
effect include these measures:
He said the Europeans have commit-
ready in the atmosphere to require
9Provisions of the new Clean Air Act ted themselves to capping or reducing
stronger action. Scientists say, further,
amendments that will slow carbon carbon dioxide emissions. "In addi-
that a substantial reduction in emis-
dioxide emissions.
tion," he said, "they will do the same as
sions will be required if the global con-
GA plan, adopted as part of the 1990
we're doing with CFC's, namely, elimi-
centration of the gases is to be stabil-
farm bill, that aims to plant a billion
ized at current levels.
trees a year for 10 to 20 years. Trees
But William K. Reilly, the E.P.A. Ad-
absorb carbon dioxide.
ministrator, said in an interview that
9Recent energy-saving measures
the study showed that the United States
mandated by the Department of Ener-
had already acted to stabilize its over-
gy, including efficiency standards for
all contribution to warming. Mr. Reilly
appliances, the development of energy-
has long advocated emissions targets,
saving building codes, and initiatives to
provided they encompass all the impli-
expand hydroelectric power, promote
cated gases, not just carbon dioxide.
solar energy and stimulate greater ef-
Atmospheric concentrations of the
ficiency by the electric-power industry.
gases are steadily rising as a result of
gThe phasing out of chlorofluorocar-
CONTINUED
human activity. Scientists say that be-
bons, or CFC's. These chemicals, used
cause they trap heat much as a green-
as refrigerants, solvents and propel-
house does, they could cause drastic
lants, are being abandoned primarily
climatic changes in the next century.
because they destroy the ozone layer
11
CONTINUED
The New York Times
JAN 13 I991
nate them." Most of the world's nations
have agreed to halt production of
CFC's by the end of this decade.
The E.P.A. study shows that carbon
dioxide emissions in the United States
would continue to grow over the next
two decades, even though this nation's
overall contribution to the greenhouse
effect would stabilize.
Moreover, Dr. Oppenheimer said,
overall greenhouse emissions by the
United States would resume their
growth after C.F.C.'s have been elimi-
nated if no further action is taken. "In
my opinion," said Dr. Oppenheimer,
"the U.S. is trying to pull the wool over
everyone's eyes under the guise of sta-
bilizing greenhouse emissions."
Mr. Reilly, a career environmental-
ist before he joined the Bush Adminis-
tration, has consistently advocated tar-
gets to stabilize or reduce overall
greenhouse emissions. By setting over-
all targets, he argues, individual coun-
tries are afforded more flexibility in
dealing with the problem.
Some European countries, for in-
stance, are proposing to tax the use of
fossil fuels like oil and coal, which
produce carbon dioxide. This would not
be politically acceptable in the United
States, Mr. Reilly said, in light of the
rejection last fall of a 25-cent-a-gallon
gasoline tax. "Congress and the public
wouldn't hear of it," said Mr. Reilly.
12
The New York Times
JAN 29 1991
Global Warming: Search for the Signs
Climatologists seek the tell-tale
The Whorls of a Fingerprint
fingerprint that a greenhouse
Some climatic features that might indicate global warming:
effect would leave.
GLOBAL TEMPERATURE PATTERNS
Scientists say continents
C1
By WILLIAM K. STEVENS
would warm more than
oceans and sub-arctic lati-
N ever-lengthening string of extraordinarily
tudes more than tropics in
A
warm years has renewed fears of the green
the Northern Hemisphere.
house effect - the trapping of the Sun's heat by
The lower atmosphere
gases that a rapidly industrializing world is
would warm while the
pouring into the atmosphere. Responding to the alarm,
delegates from around the globe will gather next week
stratosphere cooled.
outside Washington to negotiate a treaty limiting the
ATMOSPHERIC WATER VAPOR
gases.
But as the delegates converge, most scientists are
Water vapor would in-
far from ready to announce that greenhouse warming
crease with the warming
has arrived, since the warming recorded over the last
decade could also be part of a natural climatic change.
and intensify it by amplify-
Instead, they are struggling to answer a crucial
ing the effect of green-
question: how can a greenhouse warming of the climate
house gases. Moisture
be recognized and distinguished from natural warming?
would rise more in the trop-
They are focusing their detective efforts on various
ics than in higher latitudes.
subtle changes that a greenhouse warming would be
expected to induce. These signs are known collectively as
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
the greenhouse "fingerprint."
The task, climatologists say, is by no means as easy
The sea surface tempera-
and straightforward as it might seem.
ture is expected to rise fair-
They know that certain gases, chiefly carbon diox-
ly uniformly with green-
ide, chlorofluorocarbons and methane, admit the Sun's
energy but block heat from escaping back to space. They
house warming, while natu-
know that the gases are steadily building up, largely
rally occurring temperature
through the burning of fossil fuels. And they know that
changes vary more from
the average surface temperature of the Earth has indeed
one part of the globe to an-
been rising for the last decade. In 1990, at a shade under
other.
60 degrees Fahrenheit, it was the highest since global
measurements began in the late 19th century.
SEASONALITY
But as provocative as all this evidence is, the
scientists believe, it in no way establishes a cause-and-
The relative intensity of the
effect relationship between the greenhouse gases and the
seasons is expected to
recent rise in the average global temperature. The rise is
change with greenhouse
consistent with greenhouse warming, they say, but not
warming. The warming ef-
enough to prove a connection.
fect would be more evident
If the greenhouse effect is indeed warming the
planet as scientists predict it will, this will ultimately
in the winter than in the
become so obvious that "a kid on the street can tell
summer, particularly at
what's going on," said Dr. Tim P. Barnett, a climatolo-
high latitudes.
gist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La
Jolla, Calif. It will become obvious, scientists say, be-
cause the rate of warming is expect-
To help resolve these uncertainties,
Global temperature patterns. In
ed to outstrip that of any climatic
the climatologists are trying to de-
greenhouse warming, scientists be-
change in the last 10,000 years.
velop a diagnostic set of features that
lieve, the continents would warm
But the greenhouse "signal," if in
would indicate a greenhouse-caused
more than the oceans. Subarctic lati-
fact it is there now, is still so small on
warming.
tudes are expected to warm more
a global scale that it is obscured by
No single climatic feature can be
than tropical latitudes in the North-
the "noise" of the many other factors
relied on as the proof of greenhouse-
ern Hemisphere, but not in the South-
that influence climate. These other
induced warming. "You want to look
ern Hemisphere. The lower part of
factors, the climatologists say, could
for it in a number of places so you
the atmosphere, or troposphere,
well be the cause of the overall global
don't get tricked by one," said Dr.
would become warmer while the
warming observed in the last decade.
Barnett, a leader in the effort to de-
stratosphere would become cooler.
Or, equally possibly, they could have
velop a reliable detection strategy.
Sea surface temperatures. They
produced an overall cooling that part-
are expected to rise fairly uniformly
ly offset an even larger greenhouse
Possible Greenhouse Fingerprints
with greenhouse warming, while nat-
warming than the rise in average
Scientists have identified a number
urally occurring changes vary more
global temperature might suggest.
of promising candidates to be includ-
from one part of the globe to another.
ed in the greenhouse fingerprint.
Among the leading ones are these:
CONTINUED
2
CONTINUED
The New York Times
JAN 29 1991
Smart
membrane
with sensors
Turning
Sensors
to detect
The Bomb
motion,
On or Off
etc.
TO PREVENT
TO PERMIT
DETONATION
Nuclear
DETONATION
warhead
To foil tampering and
ystem
To permit the firing of
unauthorized use of a
a nuclear weapon, a
nuclear weapon,
central authority
some devices are sur-
sends a coded signal
rounded by a protec-
of up to 12 digits to a
tive membrane laced
permissive action link,
with sensors powered
or PAL, to open an
by long-life batteries.
electromechanical
When the so-called
lock in the bomb's
smart membrane is
arming circuits. After
penetrated for any
launching, sensors in
reason, it sends sig-
the weapon track
nals that de-activate
changes in accelera-
Long-life
the weapon. The
tion, weightlessness,
power
same system can also
supply
spin and barometric
be used to block acci-
pressure, allowing
dental detonation
detonation only after
when the sensors de-
the expected se-
tect damaging move-
Electronic
quence of changes
ment or handling.
controls
has taken place.
12-digit coded signal
Source: Donald R. Cotter
11
CONTINUED
The New York Times
JAN 29 1991
Water vapor in the atmosphere.
Climatologists say the effort to rule
The vapor would not only increase
The temperature is
out all the greenhouse effect's possi-
with the warming but, in a classic
ble competitors as causes of global
feedback effect, would also intensify
rising, but is
warming is slowed and frustrated by
the warming by amplifying the effect
a lack of observational data in many
of the greenhouse gases. Moisture
'greenhouse'
key areas and by the state of the art
content would be expected to increase
of climatic science.
warming the reason?
"Whenever you try to do this quick-
ly, you run up against our ignorance
and the quality of the data," said Dr.
'You want to look for
Michael E. Schlesinger, a climatolo-
nating outside the ocean-atmosphere
gist at the University of Illinois at
it in a number of
climate system. These include
Urbana-Champaign, who has worked
changes in solar radiation, changes in
closely with Dr. Barnett.
places so you don't
the Earth's position relative to the
An especially significant indicator
Sun, naturally occurring increases in
of greenhouse warming would be any
get tricked by one.'
greenhouse gases and changes in re-
increase in atmospheric water vapor.
lationships between the land and the
It is "the first thing you'd expect,"
ocean. These latter changes, brought
said Dr. Veerabhadran Ramanathan
about by the movement of the Earth's
of the University of California at San
crustal plates, are thought to have
Diego, who has studied the matter
more in the tropics than in higher
altered patterns of ocean circulation
extensively. In greenhouse warming,
latitudes like the temperate and sub-
that play a critical role in shaping
more water would change into vapor.
arctic zones.
climate.
This vapor is critical to greenhouse
Changes in seasonality. Green-
A modern cause of non-greenhouse
warming because it would amplify by
house warming is expected to be
climate change may be pollutants,
five times the relatively small initial
more evident in winter than in sum-
apart from greenhouse gases, that
warming impulse provided by carbon
mer, particularly at high latitudes.
humans are throwing into the atmo-
dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
From computer simulations of the
sphere. Many of these can affect tem-
"You should clearly be seeing that
Earth's climate, scientists believe
in the observations," said Dr. Ra-
perature, moisture and atmospheric
these indicators of the greenhouse
functioning, complicating efforts to
manathan. "If that's not there, you'd
signal are so distinguished from nat-
detect greenhouse warming.
know it's not greenhouse. If it is there,
ural, internal fluctuations of the cli-
the case would be compelling that it is
matic system as to be characteristic
greenhouse."
of greenhouse warming. One example
'Junk in the Atmosphere'
But "we don't have the answer to
of the natural fluctuations is the phe-
"We've put a lot of junk in the
that question," he said, "because we
nomenon of El Niño, in which periodic
atmosphere" in addition to green-
don't have the observational
changes in sea surface temperatures
house gases, said Dr. Barnett, "and it
records." Satellite observations pro-
in the tropical Pacific Ocean affect
seems to be pretty well dispersed.
vided such data from 1984 to 1989, but
global temperature and rainfall pat-
"What would that do to the cli-
the satellite has stopped working. No
terns.
mate?" he asked. "I don't think that's
measurements have been made since
been computed, but it could have a
then, although the Department of En-
Previous Periods of Warming
large-scale effect."
ergy plans to establish a series of
For example, climatologists say,
ground-based observation stations
On a geological time scale, the
fine pollution particles emitted by
that could fill the gap. New satellites
Earth has undergone periods of sub-
industry cause clouds to form, and
are also expected to help fill it later in
stantial natural warming. Between
these can have warming or cooling
5,000 and 6,000 years ago, scientists
the decade, and Dr. Hansen and oth-
effects, depending on the type of
believe, temperatures in various
ers are pressing for an earlier date.
clouds and their location. These ef-
parts of the world were about 2 to 5
In this and some other areas, scien-
fects are uneven from one part of the
degrees warmer than benchmark
tists say, existing records are too
globe to another, further complicat-
levels in the late 19th century. By
short to discern either trends in natu-
ing matters.
comparison, the average global tem-
ral variability or signs of greenhouse
Another source of distortion, said
perature has increased by about half
warming. The best and most com-
Dr. James E. Hansen, a climatologist
a degree to one degree in the last
plete climatic observations are those
at the Goddard Institute of Space
century.
of surface temperature. Scientists
Studies in New York, is the depletion
There were other warm periods
trying to develop a reliable finger-
of the Earth's ozone layer because of
about 125,000 years ago, when parts
print are comparing observed tem-
the release of chlorofluorocarbons
of the globe were 3.5 to 14 degrees
perature patterns in these records
into the atmosphere, a change that
warmer than the benchmark tem-
with those expected to result from
causes cooling at some levels of the
peratures, and 3.3 million to 4.3 mil-
greenhouse-induced warming.
atmosphere in northern regions of the
lion years ago, when they were 3.5 to
Climatologists at the Max Planck
globe. This may affect the expected
35 degrees warmer, depending on lo-
Institute in Hamburg, Germany, and
temperature difference between lati-
cation and season.
at the University of East Anglia in
tudes and even between land and
These warm periods were presum-
Britain, for example, have analyzed
ocean, for instance, obscuring the
ably caused by natural factors origi-
the globally observed pattern of sur-
greenhouse signal.
face temperatures and are measur-
"As soon as you start looking at
ing it against model predictions.
these kinds of details you're in trou-
Developing reliable signs of the
ble," Dr. Hansen said, adding that
greenhouse model depends heavily on
detecting greenhouse warming de-
improving the computer models of
pends on observing all the competing
the atmosphere that predict green-
external influences on climate.
house-induced changes. The models
are continually being refined, but are
still imperfect representations of the
real world.
CONTINUED
13
CONTINUED
The New York Times
JAN 29 1991
Scope of Natural Temperature Variations
Temperature changes over the last 160,000 years, based on the deuterium
isotopes in an Antarctic ice core, and natural factors believed to have had the
largest influences on the long-term evolution of climate:
1. Changes in solar radiation.
2. Changes in land/ocean distribution because of the movement of tectonic
plates and consequent changes of ocean circulation, sea level, etc.
4.5°F
3. Changes in atmospheric composition,
particularly concentrations of carbon dioxide and
methane.
4. Changes in reflectivity of the Earth's surface.
0
Current
5. Changes in the Earth's orbit around the Sun.
Antarctic
temperature
6. Changes of a catastrophic nature, like
meteor impacts, volcanic eruptions, etc.
-4.5
ERATURE CHANGE
-9
-13.5
-18
-22.5
Present
40
80
120
160
YEARS BEFORE PRESENT
Source: "Prospects for Future Climate" (Lewis)
In thousands
"Some things, the models don't
"We'd better find out as soon as we
simulate so well," Dr. Barnett said.
can," Dr. Hansen said. If action to
"Other things, they seem to simulate
reduce emissions of greenhouse gas-
Waiting for Answers
quite well." He said scientists would
es is delayed, "either the climate
first have to "isolate the best model
Given all the obstacles, when can
changes are going to be larger and
and the best of the observations"
answers be expected? Some scien-
the impacts on people are going to be
before they were set to do their de-
tists say in a decade or so, but Dr.
greater, or we will have to make
tecting.
more painful and expensive efforts,"
Barnett says nobody has really made
Some climatologists think that re-
a good estimate.
he said, adding, "The earlier we
fining the models is more important
know, the easier it is to minimize the
"Some of my colleagues say detec-
at this point than the accumulation of
tion is premature because the models
impacts or to adapt to them."
data. "I don't think more data is
aren't good enough," he said. "Others
A reliable fingerprint could also
going to reduce uncertainties in the
say, 'Detection is a red herring -
make it easier not only to detect the
next few years," said Dr. Phil Jones,
let's do something about the green-
human-induced greenhouse effect but
a climatologist at the University of
house effect right now because the
also to measure its future magnitude
East Anglia. The short-term answer,
consequences are so bad.'
with some assurance. Since the ocean
he said, "is going to be in improve-
"I think we're going to be forced in
absorbs and holds much of the heat
ment of the models and better agree-
the next 5 or 10 years to take what we
before ultimately releasing it back
have and make some decision."
ment between models."
into the atmosphere, there is a lag of
For the next few years, the public
up to several decades between the
and policy makers will have to rely on
emission of greenhouse gases into the
all these efforts to tell them what is
air and their full effect on climate.
happening.
14
JAN 10 I991
The New York Times
Nevertheless, he said, "we still may
Separate Studies Rank '90
have to wait a decade longer to make
sure."
The British groups, headed by Phil
As World's Warmest Year
Jones at East Anglia and David Parker
of the meteorological office, reported
1990 to be the warmest year since com-
AI
parable records were first kept in 1850.
By WILLIAM K. STEVENS
"Although it is still too early to con-
The earth was warmer in 1990
The 10 warmest years since
firm whether the recent exceptional
than in any other year since peo-
1880 and average temper-
warmth is related to the greenhouse ef-
ple began measuring the planet's
atures in Fahrenheit.
fect," the British scientists said in a
statement, "international scientific
surface temperature, separate
1990
59.81
opinion strongly supports the reality of
groups of climatologists in the
United States and Britain said
1981, 1988
59.64
this enhanced greenhouse effect, and it
is likely that it has played some role in
yesterday.
1987
59.56
contributing to the recent warmth."
A third group, in the United
1980, 1983
59.51
Satellites Measure Warmth
States, reported record tempera-
tures from one to six miles above
1989
59.45
A fourth analysis, of data from satel-
the earth's surface. These were
1973
59.31
lite measurements of the entire lower
atmosphere through the first 11
recorded from balloons from
1977, 1986
59.30
months of 1990, showed the year could
December 1989 through Novem-
Source: NASA/Goddard Institute for
turn out to be the fourth warmest since
ber 1990.
Space Studies
the satellite measurements began in
Some scientists said the new re-
1979. The analysis was made by John
ports, taken together with the
somewhat different set of surface
R. Christy of the University of Ala-
series of very warm years in the
bama and Roy Spencer of the space
measurements by scientists at
1980's, strengthened the possibil-
agency's Marshall Space Flight Cen-
the University of East Anglia in
ity that the feared greenhouse ef-
ter, both in Huntsville.
fect, a global warming caused by
England and at the British Mete-
The Goddard group found that the
orological Office. The Goddard
an increase of heat-trapping at-
record average surface temperature
mospheric gases, had already
team analyzed temperatures re-
for the globe was eight-tenths of a de-
corded on land and on oceanic is-
gree Fahrenheit above the 1951-1980
begun.
lands; the British team also included
average of 59 degrees. The British.
Man or Nature?
temperatures taken by ships at sea.
group found it seventh-tenths of a de-
gree higher than the 1951-80 average.
These gases, chiefly carbon
"The case for a cause-and-effect
dioxide, chlorofluorocarbons and
relationship" between the recent
The warming was particularly pro-
methane, are increasing, mostly
warming and a human-induced green-
nounced over the eastern United
house effect "is becoming harder to
States, where record temperatures
as a result of human activity. A
deny," said James E. Hansen of the
were also set in 1990, and across the en-
greeenhouse warming could
Goddard Institute. Dr. Hansen made a
tire Eurasian land mass, the Goddard
cause drastic changes in climate,
well-publicized statement in 1988 that
team discovered. The only region with
agriculture and even sea levels.
the greenhouse effect was probably the
temperatures substantially below nor-
Other scientists noted the diffi-
cause of the observed rise in global
mal was Greenland and the neighbor-
culty of detecting the tiny initial
temperatures.
ing Canadian archipelago. The British
group found the warmth of 1990
signal of greenhouse warming
A Skeptic Begins to Waver
"particularly evident" over Europe,
amid the much greater tempera-
His group reported yesterday that
western Siberia, the Far East and most
ture swings caused by nature.
1990, with an average global tempera-
of the United States and southern
"I would agree that it is of con-
ture of 59.8 degrees, was the warmest
Canada.
cern that we've had these hot
year globally since the records used by
The Federal Government reported
periods," said Tim Barnett, a
the group began in 1880.
last week that 1990 was the seventh
"I wouldn't disagree with that,"
climatologist at the Scripps Insti-
warmest year in the United States
James K. Angell of the National
tution of Oceanography in La
since record-keeping began in 1895. In
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra-
New York City, it was the warmest
Jolla, Calif. "But at this point you
*tion's Air Resources Laboratory in Sil-
year recorded since the Government
can't attribute it to any single
began measuring the temperature in
cause. Is it the greenhouse gases,
Central Park in 1869.
or is it natural variability?" It is
Dr. Hansen's group calculated that
impossible, he said, to draw any
A swing of
the 1980's were about one degree
conclusion based on the average
warmer, globally, than the 1880's, and
global temperatures alone.
nature or the
that 1990 was about 1.25 degrees warm-
The seven warmest years since
er. By way of comparison, the world's
1880 all occurred in the last 11
unwitting work
average temperature is about 9 de-
grees warmer now than it was in the
years, according to climatologists
at the space agency's Goddard In-
of humans?
stitute for Space Studies in New
York. And six of the seven warm-
est years since 1850 have all oc-
V: r Spring, Md., said of Dr. Hansen's
curred since 1980, according to a
CONTINUED
comment. Dr. Angell reported the bal-
loon measurements. "I've been a skep-
tic, but as these warmish years come
one upon the other, you begin to waver
a little bit."
30
CONTINUED
The Washington Post
JAN
/
0
1991
The warm weather was most ev-
ident over the United States and
southern Canada, Europe, western
Siberia and the Far East.
is so little proof, but the possible
Readings taken with weather bal-
consequences are so severe."
Last year also had by far the low-
loons launched by Angell and col-
est annual snow cover ever rec-
leagues at NOAA confirmed that
orded for the Northern Hemi-
1990 was the warmest year not
sphere, according to analyst David
only at the Earth's surface but in
Robinson of Rutgers University.
the planet's atmosphere, from
Robinson said he is not sure
about 5,000 to 30,000 feet. Simi-
larly, Angell said, the warming
whether the decreased snow cover
trend of the 1980s was also ob-
was a result of higher tempera-
served in the atmosphere.
tures, or the cover actually contrib-
Satellite data collected by Roy
uted to the warming. The less snow
Spencer at NASA's Marshall Space
cover, the more the Earth's surface
Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala.,
heats up. The more snow cover, the
also confirmed that the atmosphere
more sunlight is reflected back into
was warm in the 1980s. However,
space.
Spencer's satellites showed that
1990 was not the hottest year, but
the fourth warmest. Spencer is not
sure why his temperature record is
different.
Spencer said scientists don't re-
ally understand natural fluctuations
in climate. Records have been kept
only since the late 1800s. Indeed,
there was a distinct warm peak in
the 1930s and 1940s, which gave
way to 20 years of relatively cool
temperatures, followed by the
warming of the 1970s and 1980s.
"If it was a purely scientific thing,
I'd say I'm not convinced. I'm skep-
tical," Spencer said. "But I'm just
glad I'm not a policy-maker. There
29
FEB
3
The New York Times
I991
HEATING THE
GLOBAL
WARMING
DEBATE
In 1988 scientist Jim Hansen
testified that the world was getting hotter.
But how hot? And how fast?
P.24
BY KAREN WRIGHT
LAST MONTH SCIENTISTS
reported that 1990 was the
seize on any hint of contro-
warmest year on the meteo-
versy with intemperate zeal.
rological record: the aver-
And climate experts offer
age global temperature,
scant relief, insisting as they
measured over land and sea,
do that the day-to-day fluctu-
exceeded that of any year in
ations ordinary people no-
the past century or so. Citing
tice aren't nearly as signifi-
this, a group of 16 senators,
cant as the long-term trends
including Albert Gore Jr.,
about which they them-
Democrat of Tennessee,
selves don't seem to agree.
wrote a letter to President
Anyone who's had traf-
Bush calling for immediate
fic with the global-warming
policy action to counter glob-
issue eventually longs for an
al warming. The 1990 infor-
oracle or a scapegoat, a fig-
mation, said the sen-
ure to trust implicitly or to
ators, "illustrates clearly that global climate change is real."
blame entirely. Both man-
Does it?
tles have come to rest on the shoulders of one unlikely individual: a
In the five years since the terms "global warming" and "green-
mild-mannered scientist in the National Aeronautics and Space
house effect" became shibboleths of environmental awareness, the
Administration named James E. Hansen. Hansen, the director of
weather as a topic of conversation has gone from casual to confound-
NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, located in Manhattan,
ing. The briefest of heat waves is enough to kindle despair over the
is the plain-spoken climatologist who testified before the Senate
future of the planet, while a transient cold spell can send greenhouse
Committee on Energy and Natural Resources in the summer of 1988
consciousness into hibernation. Environmentalists conjure images
that the world was warming, probably because of an increase in the
of disaster; industrialists appeal to scientific uncertainty; the media
atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and other so-called greenhouse
gases, which trap heat the way the glass plates of a greenhouse do.
Karen Wright is a contributing correspondent for Science maga-
For those seemingly modest statements, Hansen has been
zine and a former staff writer for Scientific American.
alternately praised, denounced, lionized and lampooned by peers
and public alike. Meanwhile, his views on the greenhouse effect
CONTINUED
CONTINUED
FEB
3 1991
The New Pork Times
have come to form the nexus of the scientific debate on when, where and
whether global warming will occur in the next century. Some of his
conclusions have already become dogma.
In fact, it's not his science that gets Jim Hansen in trouble - it's his
style. Hansen has all the moves of a hustler but none of the guile. Backed by
a body of exhaustive and universally respected research, he routinely flouts
his profession's tacit restrictions on categorical and unauthorized state-
ments while maintaining the pacific innocence of a curious child. It's a
combination that baffles his friends, who can't give him their unqualified
support, as well as his critics, who can't even manage to dislike him.
This week, representatives from dozens of countries will meet in
Washington to begin negotiating an international agreement on global
climate change. The conferees will discuss, among other items, the need to
control emissions of greenhouse gases. Although Hansen won't be attending,
the event itself is part of his legacy; the first Washington-based meeting, last
April, was believed by many to have been a conciliatory effort by the White
House to quell criticism surrounding its alteration of Congressional testimo-
my given by Hansen in 1989. Both his supporters and his detractors admit
that Hansen has done them a service by putting global warming on the
political agenda. But Hansen can also be accused of polarizing opinion on an
issue that should not really be all that divisive. "You almost have to start
your discussions by saying, 'Do you agree or don't you agree with Jim
Hansen?' says James Van
Allen, Hansen's former teach-
er, a professor emeritus in
physics and astronomy at the
University of Iowa and a sea-
soned observer of the debate.
The answer, it seems, is more
a profession of faith than a
rational judgment.
KAREN, JIM HANSEN
wrote in pencil on lined note-
book paper last September.
I'm skeptical about whether a
Times magazine article is a
good idea. For one thing, I'm
not at all an appropriate per-
sonality for a profile - I'm a
very quiet and shy scientist. I
am very inarticulate.
Also, scribbled Hansen,
an article focusing on me will
just annoy other researchers
- of course, they're already
pretty mad
For such a shy, quiet guy,
Jim Hansen has indeed
caused a bit of a fuss. A fre-
quent guest during the past
decade at Congressional com-
mittee bearings on climate
change, the "inarticulate" sci-
entist has regularly managed
to say something to raise the
eyebrows, if not the ire, of his
colleagues. His 1988 Congres-
sional testimony drew a bar-
rage of criticism from other
climate experts. In 1989 be
earned more demerits from his publicity-wary peers when he revealed that
his statement of that year had been altered by the Office of Management
and Budget. And in 1990 be managed to raise the hackles of a whole new
cadre of scientists by proposing a climate-satellite project that other NASA
investigators see as a direct challenge to a system they have been planning
CONTINUED
for years.
CONTINUED
FEB 3 1991
The New York Times
"I think you just have to do what you think is right - that's what I
learned in 1988. Now I'm really not concerned about the repercussions,"
says Hansen. Certainly his is not the posture of an anxious man. The 49-
year-old Midwesterner is slumped in one of several beat-up leatherback
chairs occupying his office at the Goddard Institute. His feet are propped
on the only bare spot his desk has to offer. Every surface in the room,
including most of the floor, is covered with piles of articles and computer
printouts, like the blasted foundation of a paperwork temple.
In his standard office attire- khaki pants, a plaid cotton shirt and a
crew-neck sweater - Hansen looks like somebody's dad at a P.T.A.
meeting. He speaks with the placid deliberation of an Iowa farmer
describing last fall's harvest.
"I think that, after not too long, the better science does rise to the
top." Pause. "The scientific process will tell who was right."
Hansen made three claims before Congress in the fateful summer of
1988: First, that he was 99 percent sure the earth was warming. Second,
that he could say with a high degree of confidence that the warming was
due to an increase in greenhouse gases. And third, that because of global
warming, events like droughts would increase noticeably in the 1990's. He
hasn't changed his mind about any of those points, except to add floods,
storms and fires to the list of events.
Those who disagree with what Hansen says - one climatologist calls
them "greenhouse agnostics"- fall into three sects corresponding, more
or less, to Hansen's three statements:
Those who don't believe the temperature record (begun by nation-
al meteorological agencies only 140 years ago) is reliable enough to
demonstrate a warming trend.
Those who agree that there has been a warming but aren't sure
blame can be assigned solely to increases in the emissions of greenhouse
gases. World climate is, after all, the sum total of largely mysterious
interactions among clouds, oceans, trees, volcanoes, ice, snow, dust
particles, water vapor, aerosols and the sun, as well as greenhouse gases.
Those who don't think anyone understands climate well enough to
predict the meteorological effects of global warming.
Against this legion of critics, Hansen has a corps of admirers as
well, climate experts who praise his courage and laud his science. "I
don't have any fundamental disagreements with Jim," says Stephen H.
Schneider of the National
Center for Atmospheric Re-
search (N.C.A.R.). "He is
probably right."
But Schneider, like
many others, tiptoes away
from endorsing Hansen's
statements. Though he is
one of the most outspoken
advocates of a government
policy to address the green-
house effect, Schneider
won't go as far out on the
limb as Hansen has in his
scientific appraisals.
"It's just that he believes
more in the scientific cer-
tainty than I do," says
Schneider. "I think intuitive-
ly be has a higher confidence
in the tools."
THE TOOLS TO WHICH
Schneider refers are cli-
mate models: computer pro-
grams descended from the
algorithms used to predict
the weather, but much more
CONTINUED
CONTINUED
FEB
3 1991
The New Hork Times
complicated and much less
tion in Massachusetts. Solow says current models
reliable than those used for
underestimate the ocean's capacity to absorb
weather forecasting on a
day-to-day basis. One of the
heat and fail to reproduce either the geographic
or temporal patterns of temperature changes in
three most advanced mod-
the past century.
els in the United States is at
"We know the greenhouse effect is real," Solow
the Goddard Institute; the
says. "And we know that the levels of the gases are
other two are at N.C.A.R. in
increasing. And so, other things being equal, you
Boulder, Colo., and at the
would expect there to be some warming. But other
National Oceanic and Atmo-
things needn't be equal: other climate processes
spheric Administration's
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J.
could act either to suppress or reinforce the warm-
All the models are based on two verities of atmospheric science: that
ing. And the real question is, how much warming
gases like carbon dioxide, methane, ozone, nitrous oxide and chlorofluo-
do we expect to get from this, and at what rate?
rocarbons (known as CFC's) trap heat in the earth's atmosphere through
That, I think, is uncertain, highly uncertain."
what is commonly known as the greenhouse effect, and that the atmo-
Hansen doesn't deny the uncertainty. In fact,
some days he, too, rues the state of climate model-
spheric levels of these gases have risen since the beginning of the
Industrial Revolution.
ing. But then be may turn around and bet 75
colleagues at a NASA conference that at least one
That the greenhouse effect keeps the planet about 30 degrees
centigrade, or 54 degrees Fahrenheit, hotter than it would be otherwise is
year from 1990 to 1992 will be warmer than any
not in dispute. Nor is the amount of the increase in greenhouse gases at
year in the previous century. Hansen did just that
issue. There is general agreement that carbon dioxide has increased by
last spring. Only one scientist took him up on his
bet, and he lost $100 when 1990 set the record.
about 25 percent in the past century, and methane has doubled; long-term
measurements don't exist for the other gases.
Essentially, the increases mean that the earth's atmosphere holds
A
CASUAL SPECTATOR MIGHT GET THE
on to 1 percent more of the sun's energy than it did in 1800. It would be
impression that the implications of the
fairly easy to calculate the change in average global surface tempera-
greenhouse effect are disputed as often as
ture from that figure if the buildup of greenhouse gases were the only
the hazards of cholesterol. But disagreement about
what has happened to the world's climate over the
factor in climate variability. But there are many, many more.
The ocean, for example, absorbs heat from the atmosphere and
past century is greater than disagreement over
what will happen. Since 1979, when the first com-
seems to act as a buffer against climate change. How fast the heat
exchange occurs, however, and how long
prehensive report on global climate change was
compiled for the National Academy of Sciences,
the buffer effect will last are anyone's guess.
consensus statements from the scientific commu-
Clouds have a net cooling effect on the earth, but
nity have predicted a warming of between about
it is not clear whether cloud cover will increase or
1.5 and 4.5 degrees centigrade (between about 3
decrease if the global temperature rises. And
and 8 degrees Fahrenheit) in the next 100 years.
even the warming contribution of carbon dioxide
Climate models haven't challenged that estimate.
is complicated by the fact that the burning of
The consequences of such warming would
fossil fuels - the main source of carbon dioxide
range from the uncomfortable to the downright
- also releases gases into the atmosphere that
catastrophic. Temperature averages during the
form aerosols, which serve to cool the earth.
last Ice Age, which ended roughly 12,000 years ago,
In science, the traditional approach to such
were probably 5 degrees centigrade colder than
complex phenomena is the empirical method:
global averages today and brought dramatic
make a simplifying assumption, generate a predic-
changes in sea level, mass extinction of species and
tion and then see if the prediction comes true. If it
a widespread redistribution of flora and fauna.
doesn't, revise the assumption and try again.
Greenhouse scientists place themselves at
That's how models for weather forecasting are
different points along the warming range. Han-
developed.
sen puts himself at the hot end, predicting a
"If you find that your forecasting is right eight
warming of 3 or 4 degrees centigrade. Schneider
out of 10 times, you say, Look, my simplifying
falls somewhere in the middle. Solow says he
assumption is correct, as demonstrated by the fact
could "live with" a forecast of 1.5 to 2.5 degrees.
that I've succeeded in predicting the weather,"
Richard Lindzen, a Massachusetts Institute of
explains Syukuro Manabe, a veteran climate mod-
Technology meteorologist who has been one of
eler at the Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Climate
the most dogged critics of Hansen's results, bit-
models make predictions on time scales of decades
terly protests the exercise of predicting climate
and centuries, however, rendering empiricism im-
change, then reluctantly offers an estimate of 1.2
potent.
degrees. Truth is, it's hard to find a climatologist
In the absence of verification, some experts
these days who doesn't believe in global warming.
think the models aren't worth the chips they're
Last year a comprehensive survey of scientific
programmed on.
opinion published through the World Meteorologi-
"I think there's reason to believe that the
cal Organization and the United Nations Environ-
models are not only bad - that you can't rely on
ment Program drew the broadest consensus yet on
them as forecasting tools - but that when they're
the issue. Hundreds of scientists from around the
used to forecast greenhouse warming, they tend
world participated in the survey. (Hansen limited
to be systematically too hot," says Andrew R.
his participation, deciding that involvement would
Solow of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institu-
deprive him of time he would rather spend on
research.)
CONTINUED
CONTINUED
The New York Times
FEB
3
1991
The familiar conclusion of the survey was that
corner of 112th Street and Broadway near Colum-
average global temperatures would increase by
bia University. The institute sits atop Tom's Res-
about 3 degrees centigrade by the end of the next
taurant, a greasy spoon of local renown whose
century if controls on greenhouse-gas emissions
fumes often waft up to the floors above. Inside, the
were not instituted. If stringent controls were insti-
hallway is lit like a catacomb. The carpet on the
tuted, the report said, the increase could be cut to 1
seventh floor is the color of boiled spinach; there's
degree centigrade. At the same time, the report
a plant dying in almost every window.
admitted, "The unequivocal detection of the en-
This neglected corner of the NASA empire
hanced greenhouse effect from observations is not
suits Jim Hansen just fine. "We're close to being a
likely for a decade or more."
non-civil-service organization, because only 20 peo-
The consensus report offers cold comfort for
ple here have hard money for their salaries," he
those who choose not to believe in global warm-
says, including his own $79,200 annual paycheck
ing. But they can find their own sacred texts. A
By soliciting additional financing from the Envi-
report published in 1989 by a Washington-based
ronmental Protection Agency and NASA, Hansen
think tank called the George C. Marshall Insti-
has managed to build the institute's staff to 140.
tute, for example, suggested that factors such as
"We're handicapped, but there are some ad-
variations in solar activity could influence the
vantages. The key benefit is independence. We've
calculus of global warming. Some greenhouse
sometimes expressed strong or unpopular opin-
agnostics have used the report's conclusions to
ions and just ignored the fact that we're civil
argue that solar activity could mitigate the ef-
servants. I recognize the forces that come back
fects of greenhouse-gas accumulation; most sci-
and push on us because of those statements. We
entists have disregarded it.
haven't had a new hire here in four years, and in
my gut I know very well that the reason we
OCTOBER 1990: JIM HANSEN, RELUCTANT
haven't is that they don't like things I've said."
profile subject, sends me several pounds of back-
After a moment, he adds, "Though there's no way
ground material, including scientific articles,
to prove that," and smiles.
newspaper clippings, letters, Congressional state-
Hansen's initial encounter with the "forces"
ments and transcripts of speaking engagements, in
was in 1981, when he published the first solid
three separate mailings. His secretary prepares a
evidence that the earth was warming. The Depart-
five-hour videotape of his television appearances.
ment of Energy reneged on a promise of financial
November 1990: Hansen sends two four-page
help after Hansen's study made front-page head-
letters clarifying his thoughts about questions I'd
lines, and he had to lay off five people. "For a while
raised in interviews. Several more packages of
there, I became a 40-hour-a-week scientist."
background material arrive. One contains an older
It didn't last. A year later Hansen managed to
sister's memoirs (unpublished) of their childhood.
wrest some money from the Environmental Pro-
I'm not a good interview on personal things, he
tection Agency, and he plunged back into 80-hour
writes, and actually seems to believe that's true.
workweeks. In testimony before Congress in 1982,
Hansen is the son of a waitress and a tenant
1986 and 1987, he grew ever more confident in his
farmer from Denison, Iowa (pop. 5,000). He
appraisals of the seriousness of greenhouse
earned money for college with a paper route,
warming. But few people outside Congress and
played pool in beer halls after school and walked
the scientific community took notice - with the
miles of railroad tracks with his dog Skeeter. He
exception of the Office of Management and Budg-
claims he almost never cracked a book he didn't
et, which, mindful of the Reagan Administration's
have to until he got to the University of Iowa,
penury regarding climate research, tried to tone
where he met James Van Allen, then chairman of
down the statement he planned to make in 1987.
the physics and astronomy department. Van Al-
(Hansen was permitted to offer his testimony as
len discovered and gave his name to the belts of
a private citizen.)
radiation that circle the earth; he is something of
Then the summer of 1988 struck. Drought
a legend and, according to Hansen, he ran the
stranded barges in the Mississippi and blistering
kind of program that can change the course of a
heat tried Congressional tempers in the Capitol.
student's life. Van Allen suggested the topic for
Jim Hansen found himself in front of a Senate
Hansen's dissertation and then helped him get a
committee once again. But this time he had more
postdoctoral fellowship in 1967 at the Goddard
ammunition: he'd just had a paper accepted by the
Institute, an offshoot of the Goddard Space Flight
Journal of Geophysical Research that would docu-
Center in Greenbelt, Md.
ment the statements he wanted to make.
"I was so excited by the opportunity to study at
Within a few weeks of that memorable testi-
a NASA laboratory that I drove all the way to New
mony, a House subcommittee invited Hansen to
York without stopping to sleep," Hansen says. Two
repeat his performance. "I was told about calls
years later the institute offered him a staff posi-
from the White House to NASA expressing great
tion, and he got involved in the weather-prediction
displeasure about my testimony. There were ru-
research that was a major part of Goddard's
mors about what might happen to me, with possi-
charter in the 1970's. In 1981, Hansen succeeded
ble implications for the Goddard Institute." Han-
Robert Jastrow as the institute's director.
sen testified anyway, and kept his job in the
Hansen is lord of a modest manor. Goddard is
bargain.
housed in a gloomy gray edifice on the northeart
CONTINUED
CONTINUED
FEB 3 1991
The New York Times
A year later, when O.M.B. tried to alter his
But, he added significantly, "the same models that
testimony a second time inserting qualifiers
project dramatic impacts in 30 or 40 years are
about the uncertainty of model predictions and
predicting noticeable but small effects in the
about man's contribution to the greenhouse-gas
1990's. I think the public can recognize that statisti-
accumulation - he took his grievances straight to
cal change."
Senator Gore, who played the situation for all it
Hansen seemed at a loss for an analogy. Then,
was worth in the media.
suitable to the occasion, he came up with the
"He may have turned it into a circus," Stephen
Yankees.
Schneider says of Gore, "but the circus worked. A
"For example, the public can recognize a sig-
day later the White House was on the defensive
nificant difference in the chances of Don Mattingly
because Hansen was the opening story on the
getting a hit as compared to Alvaro Espinoza, even
evening news on every network." Before the week
though the percentages represented by their bat-
was out, the White House announced it would hold a
ting averages may not seem so different."
workshop on global warming to prepare for negoti-
Partly because Hansen is convinced the 1990's
ations on an international treaty, a meeting eventu-
will be a pivotal period for climate prediction, he
ally held in April of last year.
proposed last summer that two small, relatively
inexpensive satellites could gather much of the
AST OCTOBER HANSEN WAS HOST OF A
missing data pertaining to global warming by the
L
barbecue in his backyard in Ridgewood,
end of the decade.
N.J., about 15 miles west of New York City.
Some of Hansen's peers have been less than
The festivities began at 11 A.M. with a game of
enthusiastic about his idea - much less. NASA
softball. Hansen's team - a spirited if somewhat
has plans to include some of the same tracking
bedraggled group of Ph.D.'s with thin necks and
instruments on its mammoth multibillion-dollar
thick glasses - took on Goddard's computer-
Earth Observing System (E.O.S.) project, which
support staff, tanned and brawny youths in daz-
is scheduled to be launched in 1998, and some
zling blue and white uniforms. Hansen pitched, and
NASA scientists fear that Congress will try to
in the space of half an hour gave up four home runs,
supplant their grand orbiting platform with Han-
the ball soaring over maple trees and across Pleas-
sen's puny satellites. They are also annoyed at the
ant Avenue.
way he went about presenting his ideas. Hansen
With each homer Hansen, calculating the flight
waited until his proposal was virtually in print (in
trajectory with a baleful expression, merely
the National Academy of Sciences magazine)
tugged at his baseball cap. No cuss words or
before showing it to his boss at the Goddard
histrionics here- this is the man who once asked a
Space Flight Center's earth sciences directorate
writer paraphrasing his thoughts to change
He says he just forgot, then admits there may
"damn" to "darned."
have been a method to his amnesia. "If I'd talked
Hansen has described himself as "overcompe-
to them beforehand, then I'd have
titive." "Can you believe we actually beat these
gotten some input, which was the
guys last year?" he asked as he walked off the field.
last thing I wanted."
I couldn't, so I changed the subject. "Nice day
His boss was "sorely dis-
for a picnic."
tressed," Hansen says. "He felt
"Yeah," he agreed, pulling off his hat and
that I was not supporting the insti-
wiping the sweat from his forehead. "Could be
tution's objectives" - meaning
about 10 degrees cooler, though."
E.O.S. "But anyway, it doesn't real-
Hansen wasn't thinking about carbon dioxide.
ly matter. Eventually these people
But I asked the loaded question anyway: could this
come around."
unseasonably warm fall be a sign of the green-
house effect in action? Can the man in the street
GIVEN THE BUSH ADMINIS-
judge for himself whether global warming has
tration's recent history regarding
arrived?
the issue, Washington seems an
"You can't stick your head out the window to
unlikely place to convoke this
look for the greenhouse effect unless you're clever
month's global warming confer-
enough to compare the climate to what it was a few
ence.
decades ago," he said. "The problem that people
Last fall, climate experts
have is not recognizing the magnitude of natural
meeting in Geneva issued the
variability, which is large in comparison to the
most sweeping policy recommen-
warming." Actual warming, Hansen believes, has
dations from the scientific com-
been about half a degree centigrade since 1850, a
munity to date, urging all coun-
quarter of a degree between 1850 and 1950 and
tries to take immediate steps to
another quarter of a degree since then.
reduce greenhouse gases. The re-
But Hansen says the next 10 years "will tell us
port said many industrialized na-
quite a lot." He predicts that by the end of the 1990's
tions could cut carbon dioxide
the world will have warmed up a few tenths of a
emissions at least 20 percent by
degree. "The things that we'll see in the 1990's are
the year 2005 with existing tech-
not necessarily going to seem very threatening.
nologies and without significantly
They'll be noticeable, but probably not dramatic."
burdening their economies. Even
CONTINUED
CONTINUED
The New York Times
FEB 3 199,
before the report, many industri-
alized nations had instituted plans
"We're not environmentalists; we're not trying to
for stabilizing greenhouse gas lev-
defend some position that we've taken in the past.
els. All 12 nations of the European
We're trying to advance our understanding. We're
Community have set targets for
changing the atmosphere. What's that going to do?
slowing carbon-dioxide emissions
"Now when the time comes," Hansen contin-
generated by cars, homes and fac-
ues, "if we have a result that's important, we're not
tories. Representatives from Western Europe,
going to be bashful about presenting it."
Japan, Australia and New Zealand stated at the
And Hansen does indulge in a little public
conference that they could impose such restric-
relations from time to time. He holds out a letter
tions at no extra cost to their economies.
from a high-school sophomore in Connecticut who
But the United States, which is responsible
had asked him for information on global warming
for more than 20 percent of the world's carbon-
for a term paper. (Did he send her five pounds of
dioxide output, has maintained that more needs
background material, too, I wonder?)
to be known about global warming before major
"Now she wants advice on college. So I have to
policy decisions can be made. The Soviet Union
think about what to say to her." Hansen lapses into
and oil producers like Venezuela and Saudi Ara-
silence again, mulling over recommendations to a
bia have sided with it. But the weight of interna-
15-year-old girl. In a few days he'll write back to
tional opinion is bearing down on Washington.
Katie Mottes, stressing the importance of "being
Although United States negotiators succeeded in
what you want to be." If you do that, you will be
excluding explicit targets for emissions cutbacks
more likely to do well and be happy. I have just
from the conference declaration last fall, at this
relearned that myself.
week's conference, some observers say, the Ad-
ministration might have to capitulate.
Hansen plans to observe the convention pro-
ceedings from the peaceful refuge of his office on
the seventh floor at Goddard. "The argument
they all make is that if you really care about this,
you've gotta help publicize it," he says. "But I
think that the best contribution I can make is to
the science.
SUMMER TEMPERATURES
1965
2020
1990
2050
-3
-2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
AT(°C)
GODDARD INSTITUTE FOR SPACE STUDIES
Hansen's computer-generated models, above, illustrate changes in global
temperature relative to the average 1950 to 1980 temperature. If the
rate of change remains the same, the world's weather will be dramatically
altered by the middle of the next century. Hansen believes, however, that there
is a good possibility of reducing the growth rate of greenhouse gases,
which would lead to smaller changes than those illustrated.
FEP
2
The Washington Post
Energy Dept. Stations Forces on Rumor Front
By David S. Broder and Haynes Johnson
less rooms. Every inch of wall space
A15
Washington Post Staff Writers
is lined with maps and charts detail-
Nay recruited a staff of 100 people
ing the latest oil production and price
from Washington and field offices,
On the night of Jan. 17, as television
monitors showed frantic scenes of the
figures and TV monitors bringing
working in shifts. The center was
first Scud attacks on Israel and Saudi Ara-
the latest news and weather from
reconfigured and nearly doubled in
bia, John J. Easton Jr., an assistant sec-
the gulf.
size. An elaborate communications
"Because of my military back-
system was established, with secure
retary of energy, had the "eerie feeling"
ground," said Energy Secretary
phones providing quick access not
he was "living out a Tom Clancy novel."
James D. Watkins, a retired admiral
only to Saudi Arabia but also to U.S.
Easton, 48, was working as the senior
duty officer in the department's Emergen-
and former chief of naval operations,
weapons plants and laboratories un-
cy Operations Center. As the 12-member
"I felt it was critical to have an ac-
der DOE's control-and to "the cri-
staff handled the flood of incoming calls
curate real-time information flow" to
sis action center" at the Pentagon.
from officials worried about the impact on
back the decisions officials would
On the daily "watch desk," employ-
ees handle a steady flow of classified
the world's oil supplies, Easton used the
have to make and, equally important-
secure line to Saudi Arabia and other clas-
ly, to "dampen the fires of confusion"
data, logging it into computers
sified information sources to prevent ru-
and set to rest "the many rumors
where it can be retrieved and ana-
mor-fed panic in the financial markets.
floating around at a time like this. I
lyzed.
told our people, 'Let's don't let world
A month after Kuwait was cap-
The same scramble had taken place
when hostilities began-and would happen
economies go down the tube on the
tured and the center began gearing
again when Iraqi President Saddam Hus-
basis of rumor.'
up, Watkins and his emergency man-
sein unleashed history's biggest oil slick on
So far, that has not happened.
agement team started a series of
Watkins' first goal was "to deny the
"war game" exercises. The purpose
the Persian Gulf by opening the taps at a
self-fulfilling prophecy that oil would
of these "worst-case" scenarios was
captured loading platform. In each case, a
department not usually associated with
go to $60 to $100 a barrel" if war
to ensure that the department was
ground combat had an important role to
broke out. Instead, the price imme-
prepared for any wartime eventual-
play.
diately dropped $10.56 a barrel and
ity. Watkins termed the first Sep-
That the Energy Department would
has stayed down.
tember drill "a dismal failure," as-
have, in effect, its own war room under-
Watkins credits "80 percent to the
signing it an "F" grade. The next,
scores two critical facts that distinguish
success of the military mission the
three weeks later, improved mini-
first day," but says, "What we did
mally to a "D." The third he gave a
this war from others America has fought.
buttressed that.
"C minus."
However the Persian Gulf War is invested
We could com-
officially with moral imperatives-a battle
municate with NYMEX [the New
After the fourth "game," in No-
between good and evil, as President Bush
York Mercantile Exchange, where
vember, Watkins felt a need to make
has characterized it-this war is driven by
oil futures trade] and others if they
a personal trip to Saudi Arabia. He
economic imperatives, specifically the cru-
got word that some refinery had
talked with Gen. H. Norman
blown up, as they did once, and we
Schwarzkopf, commander of Oper-
cial flow of oil for America and the indus-
could say, 'It's not a refinery, it's a
ation Desert Storm, and met with
trial world.
260,000-gallon tank that's burning in
the Saudi oil minister and the Amer-
And after the war is over, Energy will be
at the center of another crucial question:
northern Saudi Arabia.'
ican ambassador. Out of that came
Whether the government establishes a na-
Now that the first crises are past,
the secure phone link, called "Black
tional energy policy that will make America
a sense of quiet routine marks the
Gold," between Saudi Arabia and his
less dependent on Middle East oil. Given
operations center, which in recent
emergency center. By the fifth and
the long political record of failure to
years helped the department re-
last game, on Dec. 20-"very good,
achieve that goal, establishing such a na-
spond to lesser crises from Hurri-
fine tuning an A minus"-Wat-
tional policy may prove more difficult than
cane Hugo in South Carolina to the
kins was satisfied. His system was in
prosecuting the war. Already Easton wor-
earthquake that damaged the San
place, and it worked.
ries that the nation will miss "a golden op-
Francisco Bay area.
Out of the "games" had come a
portunity" if this war does not result in
"Anything that happens across the
recommended response to one of
that.
nation or in the world involving en-
Watkins' greatest fears: Saddam's
For now, the emergency operation is
ergy, we have the information here
threat to use "oil as a weapon" and
playing its own significant part, operating
and we can make the appropriate
cause "an environmental holocaust"
round-the-clock in two cramped, window-
notification," explains William E.
in the gulf. The possibility that Sad-
Nay, its manager.
dam would dump oil into the gulf was
With war, the center's staff grew
specifically examined by a team at
ten-fold, and a schedule was estab-
the department's Sandia lab in Albu-
lished to rotate one of six assistant
querque, and an emergency solution
secretaries into the "hot seat" round-
proposed: to "ignite at the source
the-clock.
and stop it" by bombing.
4
CONTINUED
The New York Times
AUG 3 1991
Circulation 1,068,217
Ottawa R.
QUEBEC
0
Miles
50
Ranges
ONTARIO
Approximate
Ottawa
Lake
1990 range
Of Animals
Huron
And Plants
NEW
CANADA
Toronto
Lake Ontario
Head North
Lake Erie
Approximate
Studies in Michigan
1950 range
PENNSYLVANIA
suggest shift may result
The New York Times
from climate change.
cl
The range of the well-studied Calypso bulbosa orchid, a heat-sensitive
species, has moved northward.
By KEITH SCHNEIDER
"It's clear there is enough circumstantial
Clues in Natural Processes
evidence now that many scientists believe the
It is not yet known whether the
causes of these range changes deserve an
PELLSTON, Mich.
warming trend is long term, a result
immediate and intensive investigation to de-
HE woodland deer mouse, with its
of natural variability or a result of
T
termine whether it is related to global warm-
long tail, big ears and powder-white
increased emissions of heat-trapping
ing," said Dr. James A. Teeri, director of the
belly, once was so common in the cold
gases. Studies in the last year have
Michigan Biological Station, who is coordinat-
forests of northern Michigan that
sought to answer the question by look-
ing the research team. "The real challenge is
ing at changes in natural processes.
trapping it for study was hardly more difficult
to separate possible global warming causes
Scientists have found that the snow
than collecting moths and mosquitoes. Some-
from other changes in land use due to human
mantle covering the Northern Hemi-
time in the last 20 to 40 years, though, the deer
activities."
sphere is shrinking, that the sea ice
mouse all but vanished from the woods here,
Measuring changes in the geographical dis-
near Greenland is thinning and that
its range retreating north to Michigan's upper
tribution of plants and animals is often an
the Alaskan snow melted about two
peninsula, 30 miles away.
inexact scientific business. The ranges of or-
weeks earlier in the 1980's than it did
By itself, the deer mouse's disappearance
ganisms are fluid; plants and animals aggres-
in the 1940's.
would not have caused much of a stir along the
sively take ground when conditions are sweet
A study by Canadian scientists
shores of Douglas Lake, where the University
and withdraw in the face of fire, disease,
showed that the average annual tem-
of Michigan has maintained a 10,000-acre bio-
drought and other threats. To link such
perature in a region of northwestern
logical field station for most of the century.
changes with global warming makes the issue
Ontario climbed more than 3.5 de-
But a team of Michigan researchers has docu-
grees Fahrenheit from the late 1960's
even more murky.
mented other striking changes in the geo-
There has clearly been a warming
to the mid-1980's, causing more
graphic distribution of a dozen other plants
trend in the last decade. What is at
droughts and fires and making lakes
and animals in this region.
issue is the cause; it may be green-
shallower and more prone to con-
Ferns, fish and mammals common to the
tamination. Earlier this month, scien-
house gases, but scientists say it is
southern mixed hardwood forests of the Mid-
tists from the National Aeronautics
too soon to tell. Scientists in the Unit-
dle West and East are moving into northern
and Space Administration and the
ed States and other nations have hy-
Michigan, some of them at a pace of 10 miles
pothesized that the warming trend is
United States Geological Survey said
annually. Meanwhile, small mammals, trees.
a result of industrial and agricultural
the ice cap in the Arctic Sea had
shrunk 2 percent from 1978 to 1987.
and orchid plants of the north that once were
gases, chiefly carbon dioxide, meth-
plentiful at the southern edge of their range in
ane and chlorofluorocarbons, trap-
But if projections of a long-term,
man-made warming trend are accu-
Michigan are rapidly slipping back into Cana-
ping infrared energy from the earth's
da, their major range.
surface and causing the heating.
rate, scientists would expect to ob-
Because the research center has been col-
Since 1870, the average tempera-
serve its results also among plants,
lecting data for most of this century, the
ture of the planet has risen 1.6 de-
animals and ecological systems that
grees Fahrenheit or about 1 degree
are affected by minute shifts in natu-
scientists believe the findings reflect long-
term climate change, not just recent warm
Centigrade, and if a more rapid rate
ral conditions, especially in the colder
climates of the Northern Hemi-
years that might or might not be due to global
of increase noted over the last two
sphere. This is a difficult endeavor.
warming. Although they concede that their
decades continues, the average tem-
perature could climb as much as 8
when working with living plants and
work does not prove the case, their study is the
animáls.
first formal scientific research in the United
degrees by the end of the 21st centu-
States to determine whether documented
ry, some scientists say. British and
changes in species' ranges are being caused by
American scientists said this year
man-made climatic change.
that 1999 was the warmest year re-
corded since people began measuring
CONTINUED
the planet's surface temperature. Of
the 10 warmest years recorded, all
have occurred since 1973.
4
THE CHRISTIAN CIENCE MONITOR
AUG 13 '99'
Circulation 170,000
CONTINUED
funds were unfrozen, and no noti-
fication has been given to the UN.
In initial Council consultations
on the resolution, Yemen's Am-
bassador Abdalla Saleh al-Ashtal
charged the proposed draft would
in effect make Iraq a trusteeship
of the UN. US Ambassador
Thomas Pickering replied, ac-
cording to several diplomats pre-
sent, that the majority of the
American people would have no
complaints about that.
Diplomats on the Council say
the secretary-general was also
concerned about the implications
of having him oversee Iraq's oil
revenues. He apparently feels that
the resolution would in effect turn
Iraq into a trusteeship, with him
as the proconsul.
The UN charter prohibits any
member state from becoming a
trusteeship and says relations be-
tween members are based on the
principle of sovereign equality.
13
SEP
1991
THE ATLANTA CONSTITUTION
Ancient pines back global warming
theory
Study: Trees'
growth rings
The record in the rings
What tree growth rings reveal about past climatic change.
reflect change
Huon pines (western Tasmania): Unusually rapid increase in
temperatures since 1965.
By Mike Toner
Staff writer
El
White spruce (Alaska and Northwest Territories of Canada): Un-
even, but gradual warming since the late 1800s.
Larch (Siberia): Trend toward increasing temperatures, most pro
New signs of a worldwide
nounced since mid-1900s.
warming trend have been detect-
ed on the slopes of a rain-swept
Similar but less extensive
they can see how the climate has
mountain in Tasmania, where
tree ring studies in Alaska, Cana-
fluctuated over a period of cen-
ancient pine trees are serving as
da and Siberia also show a trend
turies.
nature's thermometer.
toward warmer temperature and
So far, the Tasmanian tree
Researchers reported Friday
increased growth rates.
rings provide one of the few reli-
that the annual growth rings of
"With some minor blips,
able records of climatic condi-
thousand-year-old trees on the
there has been a general trend
tions in the Southern Hemi-
remote Australian island show a
toward warmer temperatures
sphere.
pronounced spurt of growth that
since the late 1800s," says Dr.
Researchers can, for in-
started in the mid-1960s - re-
Gordon C. Jacoby, senior re-
stance, identify the increase in
flecting a sustained rise in tem-
searcher at the Lamont-Doherty
growth that reflects the so-called
peratures unlike anything in the
observatory.
Medieval Warm Epoch, a world-
last millennium.
Recent studies of polar ice
wide warming around A.D. 1100
"The growth increase sup-
show that the surface area of the
that coincided with the establish-
ports claims that a climatic
Arctic sea covered by ice has de-
ment of Viking settlements on
change, perhaps influenced by
creased since the late 1970s, and
the previously inhospitable
greenhouse gases, is in prog-
ress," U.S. and Australian re-
an analysis of satellite photo-
coasts of Greenland, Iceland and
searchers report in the current
graphs this year also suggests
Newfoundland.
that Antarctica's Wordie Ice
Dr. Edward Cook, who head-
issue of the journal Science.
Shelf has been slowly breaking
ed the U.S.-Australian research
Scientists at the Columbia
up over the past few decades.
team, says it may be possible to
University's Lamont-Doherty
Official temperature meas-
extend the tree ring record even
Geological Observatory say the
urements show an uneven world-
further back in time.
trees, a stand of ancient Huon
wide warming trend over the last
Because Huon pines contain
pines on the slopes of Tasmania's
quarter of a century. The 1980s,
a natural substance that makes
3,500-foot high Mount Read, pro-
however, was the warmest dec-
them unusually resistant to de-
vide a rare and virtually unbro-
ade on record and 1990 was the
cay, the Tasmanian forest is lit-
ken record of climate that dates
warmest year in a century of rec-
tered with hundreds of well-pre-
to the time of the Crusades.
ord-keeping.
served trunks - some of them
Growth rings, alternating
Because temperature records
more than 12,000 years old.
bands of light and dark wood that
have only been kept since the
By cross-dating the growth
vary in width depending on a
late 1880s, however, scientists
rings of standing trees with the
tree's annual growth rate, ordi-
can't be sure that the current
ancient logs, Dr. Cook eventually
narily reflect both rainfall and
warming is unprecedented until
hopes to develop a tree-ring cli-
temperature. But because the
matic chronology that reaches all
Tasmanian site receives so much
the way back to the time of the
rain, variations in ring width pri-
last ice age.
marily reflect changes in tem-
perature - and they show that
the period between 1965 and
1988 was the warmest in at least
1,089 years.
34
THE ATLANTA CONSTITUTION
SEP 17 1991
Electric
bills may
increase
by 3.5%
Georgia Power seeks
"We're not thrilled with the set-
tlement, but we think the process
compromise rate hike
was a good one," said David Altman,
a Georgia Power spokesman. "We're
By Ben Smith III
aware of the current economy, and
Staff writer
Cl
frankly that helped drive our de-
cision."
Residential customers will see
To figure how much the proposed
their monthly electric bills rise an
hike could affect your Georgia Pow-
average of $2.40 if the state Public
er bill, multiply a typical monthly
Service Commission (PSC) agrees to
bill by .035. An apartment dweller
a compromise struck between its
paying $40 a month for electricity
staff and Georgia Power Co.
would watch his bill rise about $1.40.
If approved, the agreement prob-
The average residential Georgia
ably would avert a court appeal by
Power customer currently pays
Georgia Power, and would slash
$71.07 a month for electricity.
Georgia Power's $384 million rate
PSC Chairman Bob Durden, who
hike request by more than two-
recently urged a settlement in the
thirds, to $117 million.
case, said he was pleased.
Georgia Power's original request
"However, I will reserve final
would have raised electric bills by
judgment on the merits until an open
an average of $8 a month.
hearing has been held before the
The reduced rate hike was
commission. in which all parties of
agreed upon by Georgia Power, the
record can be heard from," he said.
PSC staff, and eight of 12 organiza-
That hearing is expected to be
tions that have testified in the cur-
held Monday. The PSC is scheduled
rent rate case. It would increase res-
to decide the case Sept. 30.
idential bills by 3.5 percent.
83
EPA in the News
THE NEW YORK TIMES THE ENVIRONMENT TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 1991
C4
Danes Link Sunspot Intensity to Global
Temperature Rise
have to be downgraded. But they em-
ty. It also said that natural cooling
The theory, if true,
phasize that even then, no conclusions
factors could partly or largely offset
could be drawn as to how the climate
any temperature increase caused by
would be affected by changes in solar
carbon dioxide in the next century.
would mean less of a
radiation over the next century, since
A 'Gut Feeling'
role for carbon
the length and intensity of solar cy-
Dr. Hansen said that while the Dan-
cles are unpredictable. Meanwhile,
ish researchers' statistical correla-
dioxide.
atmospheric carbon dioxide is ex-
tion may or may not hold up, "my gut
pected to increase steadily as a result
feeling, nevertheless, is that they're
of the burning of fossil fuels.
at least partly right." If the findings
To cancel out the warming that
turn out to be true, he said, the varia-
By WILLIAM K. STEVENS
many scientists expect to come from
carbon dioxide would require a de-
tions described by the Danes "could
RE changes in the intensity
crease of 2 percent in the intensity of
substantially moderate or enhance"
A
of the Sun's radiation partly
solar radiation, "and I don't know of
climate changes brought about by
responsible for the rise in
anyone who believes there is that
heat-trapping gases.
global temperature that has
large a variability" in solar activity
If the findings are ultimately borne
been observed over the last century
over a century's time scale, said Dr.
out by physical evidence, they would
and especially over the last few
James E. Hansen of the Goddard
advance the effort to separate from a
years? If so, it would mean that heat-
Institute for Space Studies in New
welter of natural variations whatever
trapping atmospheric gases like car-
York. Dr. Hansen is a foremost pro-
amount of warming humans have
bon dioxide played a smaller role in
ponent of the view that global warm-
contributed to a rise of about 1 degree
the warming than some scientists
ing caused by humans is taking place.
Fahrenheit in the average surface
have believed likely.
He and others, including the au-
temperature of the globe over the last
The possibility has been raised
thors of the new study, point out that
century. The Danish scientists said
anew by Danish geophysicists. They
the new finding is based on a statisti-
that human-induced warming could
report in the current issue of the
cal correlation and that no physical
have taken place but might have been
journal Science that they have estab-
mechanism for the supposed varia-
counteracted by air-polluting sulfates
lished a close statistical correlation
tions in solar radiation has been dem-
produced by industrial activity.
between variations in the length of
onstrated.
These are believed to exert a cooling
the sunspot cycle - which they say
effect on climate.
are an indicator of changes in the
A Remarkably Close Fit
It is also possible, Dr. Friis-Chris-
intensity of solar radiation - and
Dr. Friis-Christensen and Dr. Las-
tensen said, that some of the ob-
fluctuations in the world's surface
sen analyzed the lengths of sunspot
served warming might be attributa-
temperature over the last 130 years.
cycles, which vary from 9 to 13 years
ble to human factors and some of it to
The analysis was made by Dr. Eigil
with an average of 11 years. Shorter
increased solar radiation.
Friis-Christensen and Dr. Knud Las-
cycles, they said, are associated sta-
sen of the Danish Meteorological In-
tistically with more intense solar ac-
stitute in Copenhagen.
tivity. The variations in cycle length,
the scientists found, almost precisely
Bush's Cautious Approach
match the fluctuations in Northern
Their finding is one of a number of
Hemisphere temperatures from the
mid-1850's to the mid-1980's.
new pieces of information being con-
sidered by the Intergovernmental
The years immediately before 1985,
Panel on Climate Change, an interna-
when temperatures were rising, coin-
tional group of scientists convened by
cided neatly with a period of shorter
the United Nations to make a continu-
solar cycles lasting about nine and a
ing assessment of the global warming
half years. By contrast, the years
problem as new evidence develops.
from 1945 to 1970, when the climate
In international talks on a treaty to
cooled, coincided with a period of
deal with the threat of global warm-
longer cycles.
ing, the Bush Administration has tak-
While the correlation established
en a cautious approach on the ques-
by Dr. Friis-Christensen and Dr. Las-
tion of whether to reduce carbon diox-
sen falls short of definite proof, a
ide emissions. It argues that signifi-
number of scientists. nevertheless
cant reductions would be economical-
called it remarkable in its close fit
ly damaging and that not enough is
between the solar and temperature
known about the magnitude of the
trends. The findings were termed "a
threat. Earlier suggestions that
major advance" by Dr. Robert Jas-
changes in solar radiation might af-
trow, a professor of earth sciences at
fect the climate as much or more
Dartmouth College who is also the
than the heat-trapping gases have
president of the George C. Marshall
played to the Administration's hand.
Institute in Washington.
Some scientists say that if the find-
In 1989, the institute issued a re-
ings of the Danish scientists are
port, cited favorably by Bush Admin-
borne out by further investigation,
istration officials, which said that the
carbon dioxide's suspected role in the
last century's warming could have
warming of the last century would
been caused partly by solar variabili-
EPA in the Ne
6A TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 1991
USA TODAY
GOING TO THE POLLS
Voters go to the polls today in an off-year cycle of state and local elections. While
political pundits look for trends, voters' concerns will be closer to home. Some examples:
Incinerator pits jobs VS.
environment
By Linda Kanamine
USA TODAY
WOODLAND, N.C. - An unusual new crop has
popped up in this normally close-knit Southern town,
signaling a bitter harvest at the polls today.
From nearly every other yard spring campaign
signs: dotting manicured lawns, encircling trees. Their
multitude, as much as their messages, speak volumes
of the conflict polarizing neighbors.
A single issue, the proposed
site of a hazardous waste incin-
erator, has jolted this un-politi-
cal town founded by Quakers
107 years ago into its first mod-
ern campaign maelstrom.
"This has been awful. It's
NO
caused rifts in families, broth-
ers against sisters, relatives,
HAZARDOUS
friends and neighbors," says
opponent Willa Majette.
WASTE
The controversy started
when incumbent Mayor John
INCINERATOR
AP
Stanley and four council mem-
STANLEY: Mayor fa-
bers invited incinerator com-
vors incinerator
pany ThermalKEM Inc. to
build a $70 million facility in
Woodland - without a referendum.
In a town of 850, the incumbent officeholders face a
slate of anti-incinerator challengers in today's election.
By Brad Isbell, AP
"It's like a Rip Van Winkle thing. People have been
CANDIDATES: Thomosena Boone, left, and Jean Jus-
here, but haven't really paid attention. All of a sudden,
tice urge Woodland, N.C., voters to say NO.
they wake up," says proponent Pat Liverman.
There's plenty to watch: Stanley, who's also the only
So hot is a jobs vs. environment battle that a 90%
town doctor, faces serious opposition for the first time
turnout is predicted - some of that by the town's black
in 27 years.
residents, who generally oppose the incinerator and
"If we win, democracy will thrive here in a small
see the issue as an opportunity to gain representation
town," says mayoral candidate William Jones, who
on the town board.
painted a 10-foot "NO" on his tin roof.
"Somebody needs to speak for the black communi-
ty," says anti-incinerator candidate Thomosena Boone,
a sausage company manager and 41-year resident.
Also drawing attention to Woodland's virulent cam-
paign have been the juicy trademarks of local politics:
hot dog roasts and pig-picking rallies, accusations of ly-
ing, personal attacks, secret meetings and sign wars.
When opposition candidate Jean Justius saw one
man taking down her campaign flier, "I chased him
around town," she says.
Despite the onslaught against his slate, Stanley is
steadfast in support for the incinerator project, espe-
cially its 300 jobs. "I'm satisfied it was a safe operation.
I'd do the very same thing again. We're desperate."
EPA in the News
ENVIRONMENT
planet. So if nations manage to patch the
ozone, the world may well heat up, exacer-
Bring Back the Ozone Layer!
bating the greenhouse effect that threat-
ens to cause sea levels to rise, ferocious
storms, droughts and heat waves. In fact, if
not for ozone loss, the greenhouse effect
But wait: there's evidence that patching the hole
might have been more pronounced by now.
That finding may settle an ongoing, and
will make the greenhouse effect even worse
frequently nasty, greenhouse debate. Giv-
en how much carbon dioxide and other
heat-trapping gases have been belched out
N
o wonder politicians curse the envi-
Can anything be done? Reilly is calling
of power plants and cars in the last 100
ronment. After intense horse-trading,
for "a reconsideration of all efforts under-
years, the Earth should be warmer than it
arm twisting and agonizing, 93 indus-
way to respond to" ozone depletion. That
is; since it's not, argue skeptics, the green-
trialized nations agreed in 1990 to phase out
means banning CFCs before the millenni-
house theory must be wrong. The ozone
by the year 2000 chemicals that destroy the
um, as the 93 nations will consider when
effect may explain why the Earth is only
Earth's protective ozone layer. The devel-
they meet in Copenhagen next August. It
slightly warmer than the historical norm
oping world agreed to do the same by 2010.
means, too, tackling other ozone eaters,
despite the buildup of greenhouse gases.
But if they thought this move would save
such as halons. These gases can extinguish
The United States is counting on stem-
the planet's shield against ultraviolet radi-
fires in a split second. Halon systems were
ming the greenhouse effect by eliminating
ation, they were in for a nasty shock. Last
standard equipment in tanks on both sides
CFCs. But if doing SO will simultaneously
week scientists convened by the United Na-
during the gulf war. They are also ubiqui-
fatten the ozone layer, and thus cause
tions Environment Program unveiled sat-
tous around expensive computer installa-
warming, we need other solutions. UNEP's
ellite data showing summertime ozone loss
tions, a use for which there are no good
Mostafa Tolba said last week that the tar-
of 3 percent in the 1980s. That was triple the
loss in the 1970s. Worse, it came during the
season when sun worshipers broil at the
beach and crops (some of which are dam-
An Atmospheric Catch-22
aged by ultraviolet radiation) approach
harvest. "The ozone layer is peeling away,"
There are two crises in the skies: the thinning ozone layer and the steady
said physicist Michael Oppenheimer of the
accumulation of greenhouse gases. It now appears that they're related.
Environmental Defense Fund. "And we
have no idea how bad it can get."
More CFCs
Less CFCs
But scientists have been seeing hints all
year. In April the U.S. Environmental Pro-
tection Agency announced that the ozone
1 CFCs, chemicals used
1 If CFCs are curtailed,
layer is now 5 percent thinner over the
as coolants and fire extin-
UV
Northern Hemisphere in winter and early
RAYS
the ozone layer will even-
guishers, destroy ozone
tually repair itself. Re-
spring than it was a decade before. That
in the stratosphere.
sult: more UV absorbed
portends more cases of UV-induced cata-
in the stratosphere.
racts and skin cancer-an extra 12 million
2 A thinner ozone layer
cancer cases among Americans over the
absorbs less UV radiation
2 The less UV reaching
next 50 years. Already, skin-cancer rates
than a thicker layer. The
the planet's surface, the
have doubled since 1980. Even more dispir-
less UV absorbed, the
OZONE LAYER
fewer cases of skin can-
iting, the ozone is slipping away despite the
cooler the stratosphere.
cer and cataracts.
best-intentioned steps to save it. By next
year, for instance, the United States will
3 But the increased UV
3 But a thicker ozone
halve its production of chlorofluorocar-
from a thinner ozone lay-
GREENHOUSE
layer, absorbing more
bons (CFCs), the chemicals primarily re-
er is harmful. Result:
EFFECT
UV, will be warmer. It
sponsible for ozone loss, from 1986 levels.
more skin cancer and,
SKIN CANCER
will radiate more heat to
By 1997, Du Pont, the world's largest CFC
possibly, damage to
EARTH
ward Earth, worsening
maker, will stop producing these refriger-
crops and marine life.
the greenhouse effect.
ants and foam blowers, the company an-
SOTOODEH NEWSWEEK
nounced last week; several major German
firms will beat that by two years. And
EPA Administrator William Reilly told
substitutes yet. Another voracious ozone
get must be carbon dioxide (CO2), the chief
NEWSWEEK that his agency persuaded Chi-
eater is methyl bromide, a crop fumigant.
heat-trapping gas. But the United States
na, which had been planning to build 300
Controlling its use, says Susan Solomon of
argues that controls on CO2-switching to
million CFC-cooled refrigerators, to use
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Ad-
nonfossil fuels, requiring higher-mileage
substitute coolants instead. All this will
ministration, would have a "rapid and
cars and energy-efficient factories, for in-
help, but not as much as once hoped. Robert
large influence on the ozone layer."
stance-will prove too costly. The Bush
Watson of NASA calculates that the ozone
But there may be a downside to fixing the
White House has expressed little interest
layer will still thin at least another 3 per-
ozone problem. New data suggest that,
in CO2 limits. Humans have turned the
cent in the 1990s. And even if CFCs were
even though CFCs warm the planet, ozone
atmosphere into a giant chemistry experi-
banned tomorrow, SO many tons of the gas-
depletion cools it. That's because when
ment, and we have precious little idea how
es are on the way to the stratosphere that it
ozone absorbs UV rays the stratosphere
to control it.
would take until the middle of the next
warms (diagram). Less ozone, therefore,
SHARON BEGLEY with
century for the ozone layer to recover.
means a cooler stratosphere and a cooler
MARY HAGER in Washington
NEWSWEEK NOVEMBER 4, 1991 49
EPA in the News
STEVEN WHITE HOUSE
Lacking a high-profile role, the Vice President jumped in with both feet to make the council a powerful body
TIME, NOVEMBER 4, 1991 25
plan to require liners and leachate collec-
THE ADMINISTRATION
tion systems at all new solid-waste landfills.
Need Friends in High Places?
For nearly a year, the council argued that
the plan was too costly, though other offi-
cials noted that in the past five years no city
For industries trying to skirt the law, Dan Quayle's Council
has permitted the construction of a new
on Competitiveness is a good place to start
landfill without such equipment. The na-
tion is short on landfills, and the rules for
By MICHAEL DUFFY WASHINGTON
morning waving a newspaper clipping
creating new sites are already three years
about reregulation and asking, "What's go-
behind schedule.
W
illiam Reilly thought he had a deal.
ing on here?" Bush, who headed a task
Hubbard, a gregarious Indiana entre-
The besieged chief of the Environ-
force on regulatory relief as Vice Presi-
preneur who ran Pierre du Pont's 1988
mental Protection Agency was certain Dan
dent, asked Quayle to review new regula-
presidential bid, points out that those who
Quayle had agreed that any piece of land
tions to make sure that costs would not
object to the council's rulings are free to
that was flooded or saturated with water
outweigh benefits. Lacking a high-profile
mount challenges in the courts. Hubbard
for 15 consecutive days a year would con-
White House role at the time, Quayle
says the council's goal is to improve the na-
stitute a "wetland" and deserved protec-
jumped in with both feet.
tion's competitiveness, not to shelter in-
tion from private development. The next
This is no renegade operation: Bush,
dustry from regulation. "The higher the
day Reilly received a call from Allan Hub-
chief of staff John Sununu and Budget Di-
cost of the regulation, the higher the cost
bard, who heads Quayle's Council on
rector Richard Darman are fully apprised
of the product to the consumer," he ex-
Competitiveness, telling him the deal was
of the panel's activities. When such agen-
plains. "Our whole effort is to protect the
off. Within days the council hatched a new
cies as the EPA and the White House differ
consumer and the American worker."
plan, narrowing the definition of "wet-
over how aggressively to implement a law,
There's a little more to it than that. The
ness" by six extra days, satisfying a power-
the council moves in to referee. Staffed by
council is potentially a political gold mine
ful coalition of farmers and builders and
fewer than a dozen officials, who are, even
for Quayle, who often refers businesspeo-
reducing America's wetlands by as much as
by Bush White House standards, unusually
ple with complaints about government
30 million acres.
conservative, the council regularly sides
meddling to his eager staff of deregulators.
Reilly was privately steamed. If George
with business against the environment.
The council spearheaded Quayle's attack
Bush persuaded Congress last year to pass
Even Administration officials marvel at
on lawyers and excess litigation last Au-
most of his kinder, gentler legislation un-
how powerful the body has become. "Be-
gust, and is preparing to move beyond re-
touched. Quayle's Council on Competi-
cause Quayle has Bush's total confidence,"
viewing new regulations to tackling rules
tiveness is spending much of this year mak-
said a former Administration official, "no-
already in place. While Quayle's detractors
ing sure that the new environmental and
body can touch those guys."
dismiss the Vice President as silly and feck-
health laws are as beneficial to business as
The council's favorite target is the 1990
less, his shrewd handling of the council's
possible. California Democrat Henry Wax-
Clean Air Act, which the White House
affairs is just another sign that he is taking
man calls the council a "shadow govern-
backed but now fears will cost more than
full advantage of his office.
ment." Senator Albert Gore believes that
$26 billion to implement. Last summer the
For Bush, who in the midst of a sluggish
the mysterious body allows Bush to pose as
council asked the EPA to make more than
recovery can neither pass out tax cuts nor
an environmentalist long enough "to justi-
100 changes in proposed regulations for
launch spending programs to promote eco-
fy a television commercial. Then, behind
carrying out the act, changes that top EPA
nomic growth, the council is "the only
the scenes. the [council] guts the law."
officials say undercut the law. The most
game in town," an official said. "The one
Bush created the panel in 1989 but gave
controversial proposed change would al-
thing that can cause George Bush prob-
it new powers a year later, when he began
low polluters to unilaterally increase their
lems in 1992 is the recession." The council
hearing complaints from friends that his
emissions if states ignore a waiver request
also exemplifies Bush's have-half approach
government was reregulating industries
for more than seven days. "You could
to political problems. In 1992 he can run
that the Reagan Administration had
drive a big truck through some of those
as an environmentalist while telling
sought to deregulate. Not long afterward,
holes," said a top EPA official.
industrialists he's on their side too.
the President appeared before aides one
The council has also opposed an EPA
-With reporting by Dick Thompson/Washington
The United States
Man and the
Biosphere
Program
U.S.V
MaB
The United States Man and the
Biosphere Program (U.S. MAB) fosters
harmonious relationships between humans and
the biosphere through an international
program of policy-relevant research which
integrates the social, physical and biological
sciences to address actual problems. U.S. MAB
is supported by the United States Department
of Agriculture-Forest Service, the United States
Department of Energy, the United States
Department of the Interior-National Park
Service, the United States Department of State,
the Agency for International Development, the
Environmental Protection Agency, the
National Aeronautics and Space
Administration, the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration, the National
Science Foundation, the Peace Corps, and the
Smithsonian Institution.
Inquiries concerning the U.S. MAB
Program should be addressed to the U.S. MAB
Secretariat, OES/EGC/MAB, United States
DEPARTMENT OF STATE PUBLICATION 9798
Department of State, Washington, D.C. 20522-
Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental
0508.
Science and Technology
BUSH LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY
Released July 1990
The varied yet characteristic uses of the
landscapes make them particularly suitable
for interdisciplinary studies to support
regional planning for conservation and rural
development.
The buffer zone, and more often the
transition area, include areas where
manipulative management can be practiced.
Experimental Research Areas are used to
discover ways to manage vegetation, wildlife,
croplands, forests and other natural resources
to enhance production while conserving
natural processes.
THE UNITED STATES MAN AND THE
Modified or degraded landscapes
BIOSPHERE PROGRAM
are often used as rehabilitation areas to
promote the development and demonstration
An Overview
of methods to restore natural conditions or
return these areas to sustainable development.
The blue-marble picture of Earth
from 23,000 miles in space was the first
Where possible, biosphere reserves
full-length portrait of the Earth that mankind
also include landscapes resulting from
had seen. Its effect was profound. From that
traditional patterns of land use. Such areas
distance, it was apparent that the Earth is
provide opportunities to document traditional
whole, and that the only fragmentation is in
knowledge and explore new ways to apply it.
perception-created and perhaps existing in
the human mind.
Ever since that picture-postcard
arrived from outer space, human beings have
been trying to patch their fragmented
perception of the environment into something
that resembles the whole.
The Man and the Biosphere Program
f
(MAB) is one of the most promising efforts in
that direction. It attempts to bind fragmented
disciplines into a tool for understanding
A stylized ankh, the ancient Egyptian
humans and their relationship to their
sign for life, has been incorporated into the
environment, as well as in coordinating the
symbol of UNESCO's Program on Man and
efforts of many nations toward this
the Biosphere (MAB.)
understanding.
24
1
* U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1990 262-613 814/26660
MAB International Program
A core area consists of examples of
minimally disturbed ecosystems characteristic
The objective of the Man and the
of one of the Earth's terrestrial or coastal/
Biosphere Program (MAB) is to develop a
marine regions. It provides a suitable habitat
scientific basis linking the natural and social
for numerous plant and animal species,
sciences for the rational use and conservation
including higher order predators. The core
of the biosphere-that portion of the Earth
area may contain centers of endemism or high
which contains living organisms-and for the
biological diversity. Core areas often
improvement of the relationship between
conserve the wild progenitors of economic
humans and their environment.
species, such as valuable timber trees, or
serve as important genetic reservoirs for
MAB was established at the 1970
observing particular species, features or
General Conference of the United Nations
processes. A core area has secure domestic
Educational, Scientific and Cultural
legal protection and only activities that do
Organization (UNESCO) when initial plans
not adversely affect natural processes and
were approved and the governing body, the
wildlife are allowed. For this reason, strictly
International Coordinating Council (ICC) for
protected nature reserves and wilderness
MAB, was chartered.
portions of national parks often serve as core
areas of biosphere reserves.
In many ways, MAB builds on the
former International Biological Program
In the buffer zone (sometimes
(IBP), but differs from IBP in that MAB is
referred to as the zone of managed use), uses
intergovernmental in structure and oriented
of resources and activities in the area are
toward solving management problems arising
managed in a way that helps to protect the
from the interactions between human
core area. The outer boundaries of the buffer
activities and natural systems. MAB is an
zone often coincide with those of a national
integrated, interdisciplinary, problem-focused
park, wildlife refuge or multiple-use area.
research approach. MAB seeks to provide a
bridge between fundamental science and
The outermost part of a biosphere
technological applications.
reserve is the transition area. This is usually
an undelimited, dynamic zone of cooperation
MAB provided the first formal
in which conservation knowledge and
mechanism for bringing together and
management skills are applied. The area may
coordinating diffuse national and international
contain settlements, croplands, managed
research, conservation and training activities.
forests, areas for intensive recreation or other
In the United States, for example, 46 areas
economic uses characteristic of the region.
have been designated to be part of an
international network of more than 285
biosphere reserves. Biosphere reserves are
unique multipurpose areas dedicated to both
conservation of characteristic ecosystems and
BUSH LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY
2
23
species, as well as managing land, water and
resources for sustainable development to meet
MODEL BIOSPHERE RESERVE
human needs.
H
Over 110 nations currently participate
in the MAB program. In each country, a MAB
S
national committee defines and organizes
specific national activities to be under the
E
S
aegis of MAB. The United States MAB
H
Program collaborates with the MAB Programs
T
of other nations both on a bilateral basis and
E
through the international MAB secretariat at
T
UNESCO.
Core Area
E
Experimental
Research Area
Buffer Zone
H
Rehabilitation
Area
U.S.V
Transition Area
S
Settlement
MaB
T
Traditional Use
Area
U.S. MAB Program
Model Biosphere Reserve
In 1974, the U.S. .Department of State
established a U.S. National Committee for the
A biosphere reserve is a unique
MAB Program composed of representatives
category of protected area dedicated to
from supporting federal agencies and state
solving problems associated with the effects
and private institutions, which guides the
of human impacts, over time, upon natural
development of national research, education
ecosystems.
and training activities. Under its direction,
United States Man and the Biosphere
A model biosphere reserve consists
Program (U.S. MAB) projects are
of a core area, a buffer zone which adjoins or
administered by groups, called directorates, of
surrounds the core area and a transition area.
selected experts whose chairs also serve on
the U.S. National Committee.
22
3
The mission of U.S. MAB was
Dr. Patrick J. Webber
defined in January 1989:
Chair, Directorate on
High Latitude Ecosystems
"to foster harmonious relationships
Director
between humans and the biosphere through an
The W.K. Kellogg
international program of policy-relevant
Biological Station
research which integrates social, physical and
Michigan State University
biological sciences to address actual
problems. These activities, broadly
Dr. Patricia A. Werner
interpreted, include catalytic conferences and
Director, Division of
meetings, education and training, and the
Biotic Systems and Resources
establishment and use of biosphere reserves
National Science Foundation
as research and monitoring sites."
Dr. Gilbert F. White
The U.S. National Committee for the
Institute of Behavioral Science
Man and the Biosphere Program is chaired
University of Colorado
by Thomas E. Lovejoy, Assistant Secretary
for External Affairs, of the Smithsonian
Dr. Robert G. Woodmansee
Institution. Current institutional members of
Director
the National Committee represent supporting
Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory
federal agencies. They are:
Colorado State University
Department of Agriculture-
Forest Service;
Note: For further information on U.S. MAB
Department of Energy;
activities or if you would like to receive the
Department of the Interior-
U.S. MAB Bulletin, published quarterly,
National Park Service;
please contact:
Department of State;
Agency for International
The U.S. MAB Secretariat
Development;
OES/EGC/MAB
Environmental Protection
Department of State
Agency;
Washington, D.C. 20522-0508
National Aeronautics and
U.S.A.
Space Administration;
Tel. (202) 632-2816 or
National Oceanic and
632-2786.
Atmospheric Administration;
For specific information on the international
National Science Foundation;
MAB Program, please write to:
Peace Corps; and
The Smithsonian Institution.
The MAB Secretariat
Division of Ecological Sciences
UNESCO
7, place de Fontenoy
75700 Paris, France.
BUSH LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY
4
21
Dr. Roberta B. Miller
Additional members of the
Chair, Directorate on
Committee are from U.S. universities and
Human Dominated Systems
private sector organizations. The Chairman
Director
of the Committee is appointed by the
Division of Social and Economic Science
Department of State. The U.S. MAB
National Science Foundation
Secretariat operates within the Office of
Global Change of the Bureau of Oceans and
Dr. Robert J. Naiman
International Environmental and Scientific
Chair, Directorate on
Affairs of the Department of State.
Temperate Ecosystems
Director
The Way U.S. MAB Works
Center for Streamside Studies in
Forestry, Fisheries and Wildlife
During 1989, the U.S. National
University of Washington
Committee for the Man and the Biosphere
Program directed that the Program reflect
Dr. Paul G. Risser
current understandings of global and scientific
Vice President for Research
interrelationships. Five program directorates
University of New Mexico
were organized to provide increased
opportunities for cross disciplinary
Dr. Eldon W. Ross
collaboration among biological/natural and
Associate Deputy Chief for Research
social scientists. These U.S. MAB Program
Forest Service
directorates are:
Department of Agriculture
High Latitude Ecosystems;
Dr. Roger E. Soles
Human Dominated Systems;
Executive Director
Marine and Coastal Ecosystems;
U.S. MAB Secretariat
Temperate Ecosystems; and
Department of State
Tropical Ecosystems.
Dr. Shelby G. Tilford
The U.S. National Committee also
Director, Earth Science and
established an inter-directoral Coordinating
Applications Division
Committee on Biosphere Reserves.
National Aeronautics and Space
Administration
The U.S. National Committee
directed that the membership of the program
Dr. Jack Vanderryn
directorates reflect a balance of experts
Agency Director for Energy
between social and biological/physical
and Natural Resources
scientists, as well as between federal and
Agency for International Development
private sector scientists and individuals who
are appointed for a 3-year term. The
representative of a supporting government
agency on a directorate ensures that a link is
20
5
forged between the products of the
Dr. Arthur W. Cooper
directorate's activities and their consideration
Head, Department of Forestry
by the agency's policy and program decision
College of Forest Resources
makers. At present, some 25 universities are
North Carolina State University
represented among the scientists and
managers who are serving on the various
Mr. Paul Coverdell
directorates.
Director
The Peace Corps
Each directorate has a mission
statement to reflect its basic framework and
Dr. Sylvia Earle
goals for research, training and project
Chief Scientist
implementation. The directorate initiates
National Oceanographic and
proposals for activities, or requests that other
Atmospheric Administration
interested parties do so, and the directorate
Department of Commerce
takes over the role of coordination and
review.
Dr. F. Eugene Hester
Associate Director for Natural Resources
U.S. MAB pursues its objective
National Park Service
through competitively funded, peer-reviewed
Department of the Interior
projects of both its program directorates and
awards to U.S. individuals or interdisciplinary
Dr. Michael A. Little
teams of scientists received in response to an
Professor, Department of Anthropology
annual Request for Proposals (RFP). The
State University of New York, Binghamton
RFP is printed each summer in the Federal
Register and in the U.S. MAB Bulletin and is
Dr. Ariel Lugo
reprinted in various scientific and research
Chair, Directorate on
journals.
Tropical Ecosystems
Project Leader
The program missions of the new
Institute of Tropical Forestry
directorates are as follows:
Southern Forest Experiment Station
Forest Service
Directorate on High Latitude
Department of Agriculture
Ecosystems
Dr. Helen C. McCammon
Special emphasis has been placed on
Director, Ecological Research
the high latitude regions of the Earth as
Department of Energy
potentially responding earliest to the
possibility of global warming, responding
Mr. Samuel McKee
more rapidly than tropical or temperate
Former Chairman,
regions, and being subject to the greatest
U.S. MAB National Committee
magnitude of warming. They include the
Office of International and Territorial Affairs
zones of continuous and discontinuous
Department of Education
BUSH LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY
6
19
U.S. NATIONAL COMMITTEE
permafrost and some of the most undeveloped
FOR THE MAN AND THE
land areas of the northern hemisphere. These
BIOSPHERE PROGRAM
regions support indigenous human
populations, which, until very recently, have
Dr. Thomas E. Lovejoy
been practicing a relatively stable subsistence
Chairman, U.S. MAB
lifestyle.
Assistant Secretary for External
Affairs
Now these regions are undergoing
The Smithsonian Institution
rapidly accelerating social change, including
increasing pressure for resource extraction,
growing resident populations as a result of
Mr. E. U. Curtis Bohlen
population migration from lower latitudes,
Assistant Secretary
and, concurrently, increased scrutiny of
Bureau of Oceans and International
resource use and decisions concerning their
Environmental and Scientific Affairs
management.
Department of State
Among the areas of interest to the
Mr. Erich W. Bretthauer
Directorate on High Latitude Ecosystems for
Assistant Administrator for
concentrated project activities and proposed
Research and Development
research are:
Environmental Protection Agency
Sustainable resource
Dr. James M. Broadus
management and cultural
Chair, Directorate on Marine
development;
and Coastal Ecosystems
Director
Monitoring for global climate
Marine Policy Center
change, potential implications
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute
for biological productivity,
engineering works and
Dr. Stephen B. Brush
transportation systems, and
Administrator
resident human populations;
International Agricultural Development
Maintaining aquatic areas and
Graduate Group
wetlands;
University of California, Davis
Maintaining and protecting
biological diversity; and
Dr. David Challinor
Science Advisor to the Secretary
Cooperation in research and
The Smithsonian Institution
policy development to
recover any systems that are
lost or are in the process of
being damaged.
18
7
Tropical forest restoration;
Producing management plans
that outline the steps for
restoring tropical landscapes,
or wetlands;
Improving communication
between social and natural
scientists or managers who
are working on the
conservation of tropical
ecosystems; and
Generating data bases which
contain available solutions to
the problems of natural
Directorate on Human
resource management in the
tropics.
Dominated Systems
There are many circumstances in
U.S. MAB Coordinating
which human activity has so profoundly
Committee for Biosphere
altered the underlying ecosystems that a very
Reserves
different environment is created. Present day
population growth levels have caused such
Each directorate chair designates one
ecosystem alteration more rapidly and over
member to serve on the U.S. MAB
wider areas than ever before, resulting in
urbanization and intensification of agriculture
Coordinating Committee for Biosphere
that present tremendous problems for human
Reserves along with representatives from
health and continued food production. Other
each of the supporting federal agencies and
several from the private sector. This
processes, such as mining and resource
committee aims to strengthen the biosphere
extraction, and tourist developments also
reserve program within U.S. MAB by
create altered and distinct ecologies
encouraging pilot projects that demonstrate
dominated by humans. Many of these areas
the biosphere reserve concept in practice;
suffer from severe problems such as air
networking among biosphere reserve
pollution in cities, soil degradation and
managers; and developing management
tropical deforestation in relation to
programs that conserve characteristic
agriculture, and the loss of beaches and
ecosystems and species, as well as managing
coastal areas due to the expansion of various
land, water and resources for sustainable
development to meet human needs.
BUSH LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY
8
17
kinds of development. As a result, the
capacity of natural systems and the viability
of various types of human interventions need
to be better understood.
Among the areas of interest to the
Directorate on Human Dominated Systems
for concentrated project activities and
proposed research are:
Quantifying the intensity of an
Directorate on Tropical
activity that can be supported
Ecosystems
without causing the collapse of life
support systems essential to the
Dramatic changes in land-use have
activity;
had enormous effects on maintenance and
quality of life of people in the tropical
Assessing the role of population
latitudes. The magnitude of the change is
size and distribution on various
affecting the biological diversity of the planet,
environmental changes;
causing losses of precious genetic material,
Analyzing anthropogenic causes of
changing the chemistry and composition of
the "greenhouse effect" and costs
the oceans and the atmosphere, seriously
to control;
depleting the fertility of soils and nature's
Identifying immediate health
ability to replenish that fertility, changing the
effects and indirect effects of
climate of the Earth and greatly influencing
groundwater pollution, chemical
the biogeochemical cycles of the planet.
run-off, atmospheric pollution or
climate change;
Therefore, governments, researchers,
resource managers, local communities and
Identifying methods for improving
resource users in the tropics are concerned
the integration of ecosystem
with how we can stem the tide of negative
considerations in human decision
global change and protect the biological
making processes as they relate to
diversity, while also providing conditions
resource and ecosystem
supportive of the growth and development of
management; and
social systems needed to maintain a healthy
Identifying and analyzing
human population.
methods for maintaining or
restoring important life support
Among the areas of interest to the
systems.
Directorate on Tropical Ecosystems for
concentrated project activities and proposed
research are:
16
9
Among the areas of interest to the
Directorate on Temperate Ecosystems for
concentrated project activities and proposed
research are:
Human modification of
ecosystem structure and
function, with implications
for ecosystem productivity,
sustainability and resilience;
Directorate on Marine
Adaptation of human
and Coastal Ecosystems
populations to economically
marginal or increasingly
The oceans regulate the Earth's
hazardous environments;
ecological balance and moderate both global
Development and application
climate conditions and local weather patterns.
of environmental
Far ranging ocean currents can transport
management practices
pollutants from one area to another, and
that provide for both
environmental damage in one place can
commodity production and
impair natural habitats at distant locations.
preservation of biological
diversity; and
Growing problems of marine
Adoption of soil conservation
pollution, habitat degradation and biological
practices in arid and semi-arid
impoverishment are found in a number of the
temperate ecosystems with
Earth's poorly mixed coastal waters,
declining productivity.
especially those associated with population
centers, industrial activity and river inputs.
An association of these problems with
population growth, economic growth and
development is readily apparent, but it need
not be inescapable. Investments in
environmental quality for marine and coastal
ecosystems, leading to improved human
welfare, can contribute to economic growth
just as can expanded infrastructure. The
Directorate will manage and will encourage
project activities and research on the
biogeography of marine and coastal
ecosystems and their influences upon and
interdependencies with human activities and
well-being.
BUSH LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY
10
15
Among the areas of interest to
the Directorate on Marine and Coastal
Ecosystems for concentrated project activities
and proposed research are:
Assessment of sources,
impacts and control of marine
pollution, including, but not
limited to nutrient loading and
eutrophication, siltation and
Directorate on Temperate
relationships to freshwater
Ecosystems
resources;
Analysis of sea level rise, coastal
The temperate zone is occupied by
erosion and other land-margin
the most industrialized nations on Earth and
disturbances;
contains about two-thirds of the population.
Assessment of habitat loss or
Consequently, human activities have had
substantial impacts on natural ecosystems and
alteration, including
on ecological processes. The per capita rates
implications for biological
of resource consumption and pollution are far
diversity;
higher than in other latitudinal zones, and
Identification and estimation
modifications to natural ecosystems are
of means for and benefits of
extensive.
preservation of traditional
marine and coastal uses;
The temperate zone encompasses a
Clarification of relationships
wide variety of ecological systems ranging
between natural fluctuations
from forests in wetter regions to grasslands
and human perturbations, as
and deserts in dryer regions and in aquatic
with red tides and harmful
ecosystems such as lakes, rivers and
algal blooms;
freshwater wetlands.
Innovative investigation of
fisheries and other living
resource management issues,
especially related to the
above.
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U.S. MAB PRO GRAM
SUPPORT
Dept. of
Dept. of
Agency for
Environmental
National
Natl.
National
Dept. of
Agriculture-
Interior
Dept.
Aeronautics
Oceanic &
Private
International
Protection
Science
Peace
Smithsonian
Forest
Energy
Natl. Park
of
Agency
and Space
Atmospheric
Sector
Development
Fdn.
Corps
Institution
Service
State
(AID)
Admin.
Admin.
Scientists
Serv.
(EPA)
(NSF)
(NPS)
(NASA)
(NOAA)
REPRESENTATION
U.S. National Committee for the Man and the Biosphere (MAB) Program
& POLICY
United Nations
multilateral
Educational,
Scientific
coordination
and Cultural
ADMINISTRATION
Organization
U.S. MAB Secretariat
(UNESCO)
bilateral
cooperation
MAB Programs
of 114
nations
High
Human
Marine &
PROGRAM
Temperate
Tropical
Latitude
Dominated
Coastal
DIRECTORATES
Ecosystems
Ecosystems
Ecosystems
Systems
Ecosystems
Coordinating
Committee for
Biosphere
Reserves
BUSH LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY
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