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Environment - General [1989]
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285791817
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Environment - General [1989]
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Records of the White House Office of Science and Technology (George H. W. Bush Administration)
Allan D. Bromley Files
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Originally Processed With FOIA(s):
FOIA Number:
2005-0336-F
2005-0336-F
FOIA
MARKER
This is not a textual record. This is used as an
administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential
Library Staff.
Record Group/Collection:
George H.W. Bush Presidential Records
Collection/Office of Origin:
Science and Technology Policy, Office of (OSTP)
Series:
Bromley, D. Allan, Files
Subseries:
Global Climate Change Files
OA/ID Number:
62047
Folder ID Number:
62047-001
Folder Title:
Environment - General [1989]
Stack:
Row:
Section:
Shelf:
Position:
0
0
0
0
Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet
(George Bush Library)
Document No.
Subject/Title of Document
Date
Restriction
Class.
and Type
01. Memorandum
To: President Bush From: Domestic Policy Council
3/3/89
(b)(1)
Re: Hazardous Waste Export (4 pp.)
Collection:
Record Group:
Bush Presidential Records
Office:
Science and Technology Policy, Office of (OSTP)
Series:
Bromley, D. Allan, Files
Subseries:
General Science Files
WHORM Cat.:
File Location:
Environment General [1989]
Date Closed:
4/1/2010
OA/ID Number:
62047-001
FOIA/SYS Case #:
2005-0336-F
Appeal Case #:
Re-review Case #:
Appeal Disposition:
P-2/P-5 Review Case #:
Disposition Date:
AR Case #:
MR Case #:
AR Disposition:
MR Disposition:
AR Disposition Date:
MR Disposition Date:
RESTRICTION CODES
Presidential Records Act [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)]
Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)]
P-1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA]
(b)(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA]
P-2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA]
(b)(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an
P-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA]
agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA]
P-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or
(b)(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA]
financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA]
(b)(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial
P-5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President
information [(b)(4) of the FOIA]
and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA]
(b)(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
P-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA]
personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA]
(b)(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement
purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA]
C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of
(b)(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of
gift.
financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA]
(b)(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information
PRM. Removed as a personal record misfile.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
November 29, 1989
CONFIDENTIAL
Determined NOT to be
National Security Classified Marking
By MB (NLGB) on 4/1/10
Dear Dave:
This is a belated response to your letter of October 31,
which arrived while I was in the Netherlands at a huge
meeting on global warming.
There are, in fact, two positions that I think you might be
interested in, one open at the moment, and one that will
become open next September. The first is that of Director
of the Office of Energy Research in the Department of
Energy. As you know, Bob Hunter terminated his appointment
at the request of Admiral Watkins abruptly a few weeks ago,
and Jim Decker is again serving as Acting Director. This
causes me some considerable difficulty, because Jim was all
set to accept appointment as Assistant Director for Physical
Science and Engineering in my office and now feels committed
to holding down the fort until a replacement is selected by
the Admiral. I know that Admiral Watkins has talked with Al
Neuharth, who is currently director of the Sandia
Laboratories, and with Harold Fortzen, who is currently with
Battelle, but in both cases has received a negative
response, so that he is still looking.
The second position is that of Director of the National
Science Foundation which will become vacant next September
when Erich Bloch completes his six years in the post. A
major search committee activity will be undertaken, starting
in the very near future. It will be chaired by Dr. Mary
Good, of Allied Signal, who is currently chairman of the
National Science Board.
If either of these positions are of interest to you, I would
suggest that you immediately get a resume to Admiral James
D. Watkins, Secretary of Energy, and to Dr. Mary Good,
Chairman, National Science Board, as soon as possible,
indicating that I suggested that you should do so.
Unhappily, in both of these cases, and indeed in my own, the
situation does not promise to be as much fun as it was in
Jay Keyworth's time, when research budgets were increasing
at a reasonably healthy rate. I suspect that the next few
years will be difficult ones, with a number of very hard
budget decisions being required each year -- decisions that
will make the scientific community and the Congress and, in
fact, everyone else, unhappy. This is really the first
time, since the War, when I suspect that it will be the case
that even very high-quality projects will not be able to
move forward, if not immediately then eventually, because we
simply have more high-quality people and projects than can
be supported with any reasonable extrapolation of current
budgets.
On the other hand, this is when leadership is required, and
I think that you could have a very real impact if you were
to find yourself in either of these positions.
The membership of the President's Council of Advisers on
Science and Technology (PCAST) has now been fixed and has
involved a remarkable amount of balancing and adjusting for
geographical, professional and an amazing array of other
attributes. Unfortunately, you were not included in the
final list of initial appointees, although that certainly
does not imply that with the expected turnover that you will
not become a member of that group in the not too distant
future.
I have now completed the senior staff at the Presidential
appointment level in my own office. Jim Wyngaarden and Tom
Ratchford were confirmed by the Senate at 1:00 a.m. on
Saturday morning, November 18, and your colleague, Eugene
Wong from Berkeley, will be confirmed as Associate Director
for Physical Science and Engineering, and Dr. William
Phillips, formerly executive vice president of both
Mallincropt and DuPont, as well as chairman of the chemistry
department at Washington University in St. Louis, will be
confirmed as Associate Director for Industrial Technology,
very soon after the Senate reconvenes early in the new year.
I believe that this group has a remarkable degree of
complementarity and that, together with me, will represent a
collegial group that will be able to address the problems
that boil up through the system to the Presidential level in
reasonable fashion.
Please let me know what you decide to do about the DOE and
NSF positions. Let me also emphasize that, in both cases,
this is still to be considered as confidential and, in
particular, in the NSF case, the search procedure has not
yet been announced but I suspect will be early in the new
year.
With warmest best wishes to both you and Virginia, and with
the hope that the remainder of your stay in Berlin will be a
pleasant and rewarding one,
Sincerely yours,
from
D. Allan Bromley
Assistant to the President
for
Science and Technology
Professor David A. Shirley
Free University of Berlin
Faculty of Physics
Institute for Atomic and Particle Physics
WE 1, Arnimallee 14, 1000 Berlin 33
Federal Republic of Germany
CONFIDENTIAL
Determined NOT to be
National Security Classified Marking
By MB (NLGB) on 4/1/10
FREIE UNIVERSITÄT BERLIN
FU
BERLIN
Fachbereich Physik
Institut für Atom- und Festkörperphysik (WE 1)
October 31, 1989
Freie Universität Berlin, Fachbereich Physik
Tel.: (030) 838
WE 1, Arnimallee 14, 1000 Berlin 33
(Tx 17308622 +
Ttx 308622=fuphysk)
Dr. D. Allan Bromley
PERSONAL
Assistant to the President
for Science and Technology
Room 358, Old Executive Office Building
Washington, D.C. 20500
Dear Allan,
I'm writing for two reasons. First, to send greetings from
Berlin, where we're comfortably ensconced doing science, seeing
Europe at a more leisurely pace, and having the time of our lives!
The second reason is to let you know that I have become
quite serious about seeking a more challenging position than the
professorship which awaits me in Berkeley. The difference from
earlier this year is that now I'm thinking of a permanent move to a
position in science or university administration. I'm writing to
you both as a friend and because I recall that it was Jay Keyworth
who ordered Hermann to go and be the director of CEBAF! Thus I
surmise that knowledge of openings will reach your Office. Please
remember me if something suitable for this ex lab director comes
along.
To minimize the trauma (or celebrations) in Berkeley, I'd
like to keep this process confidential. Anything sent to my Ber-
keley address will be forwarded discreetly by my secretary. Al-
ternatively, my home address here is
Garystrasse 65
1000 Berlin 33
W. Germany.
My home direct-dial telephone number is 011 49 30 8313523, and my
e-mail address (bitnet only) is
st%"[email protected]"
all of which is needed. Please share this information with anyone
who has an appropriate job to offer, and I'll send a c.v. and refer-
ences on request.
I have heard that you are doing a great many good things for
the country in your new role: count me among your many fans! Thanks
again for your responses this last summer.
Cordially,
Dave
David A. Shirley
Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet
(George Bush Library)
Document No.
Subject/Title of Document
Date
Restriction
Class.
and Type
02. Memorandum
To: John Sununu From: Allan Bromley
11/3/89
(b)(1)
Re: EPA Regulations (1 pp.)
Collection:
Record Group:
Bush Presidential Records
Office:
Science and Technology Policy, Office of (OSTP)
Series:
Bromley, D. Allan, Files
Subseries:
General Science Files
WHORM Cat.:
File Location:
Environment - General [1989]
Date Closed:
4/1/2010
OA/ID Number:
62047-001
FOIA/SYS Case #:
2005-0336-F
Appeal Case #:
Re-review Case #:
Appeal Disposition:
P-2/P-5 Review Case #:
Disposition Date:
AR Case #:
MR Case #:
AR Disposition:
MR Disposition:
AR Disposition Date:
MR Disposition Date:
RESTRICTION CODES
Presidential Records Act - [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)]
Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)]
P-1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA]
(b)(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA]
P-2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA]
(b)(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an
P-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA]
agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA]
P-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or
(b)(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA]
financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA]
(b)(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial
P-5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President
information [(b)(4) of the FOIA]
and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA]
(b)(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
P-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA]
personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA]
(b)(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement
purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA]
C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of
(b)(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of
gift.
financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA]
(b)(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information
PRM. Removed as a personal record misfile.
Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet
(George Bush Library)
Document No.
Subject/Title of Document
Date
Restriction
Class.
and Type
03. Memorandum
To: John Sununu From: Allan Bromley
11/29/89
(b)(1)
Re: Impact of Launches on Stratospheric Ozone (1 pp.)
Collection:
Record Group:
Bush Presidential Records
Office:
Science and Technology Policy, Office of (OSTP)
Series:
Bromley, D. Allan, Files
Subseries:
General Science Files
WHORM Cat.:
File Location:
Environment - General [1989]
Date Closed:
4/1/2010
OA/ID Number:
62047-001
FOIA/SYS Case #:
2005-0336-F
Appeal Case #:
Re-review Case #:
Appeal Disposition:
P-2/P-5 Review Case #:
Disposition Date:
AR Case #:
MR Case #:
AR Disposition:
MR Disposition:
AR Disposition Date:
MR Disposition Date:
RESTRICTION CODES
Presidential Records Act [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)]
Freedom of Information Act [5 U.S.C. 552(b)]
P-1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA]
(b)(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA]
P-2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA]
(b)(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an
P-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA]
agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA]
P-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or
(b)(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA]
financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA]
(b)(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial
P-5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President
information [(b)(4) of the FOIA]
and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA]
(b)(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
P-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA]
personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA]
(b)(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement
purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA]
C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of
(b)(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of
gift.
financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA]
(b)(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information
PRM. Removed as a personal record misfile.
Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet
(George Bush Library)
Document No.
Subject/Title of Document
Date
Restriction
Class.
and Type
04. Memorandum
To: James Baker From: Allan Bromley
11/15/89
(b)(6)
Re: Frederick Bernthal (1 pp.)
Collection:
Record Group:
Bush Presidential Records
Office:
Science and Technology Policy, Office of (OSTP)
Series:
Bromley, D. Allan, Files
Subseries:
General Science Files
WHORM Cat.:
File Location:
Environment - General [1989]
Date Closed:
4/1/2010
OA/ID Number:
62047-001
FOIA/SYS Case #:
2005-0336-F
Appeal Case #:
Re-review Case #:
Appeal Disposition:
P-2/P-5 Review Case #:
Disposition Date:
AR Case #:
MR Case #:
AR Disposition:
MR Disposition:
AR Disposition Date:
MR Disposition Date:
RESTRICTION CODES
Presidential Records Act [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)]
Freedom of Information Act [5 U.S.C. 552(b)]
P-1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA]
(b)(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA]
P-2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA]
(b)(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an
P-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA]
agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA]
P-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or
(b)(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA]
financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA]
(b)(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial
P-5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President
information [(b)(4) of the FOIA]
and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA]
(b)(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
P-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA]
personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA]
(b)(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement
purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA]
C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of
(b)(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of
gift.
financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA]
(b)(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information
PRM. Removed as a personal record misfile.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
November 3, 1989
MEMORANDUM FOR JOHN H. SUNUNU
FROM:
D. ALLAN BROMLEY
Auan
SUBJECT:
NEW, NOVEMBER 1, EPA REGULATIONS ON RADIONUCLIDE
EMISSIONS
A great deal of controversy surrounds EPA's promulgation of
their new standard on radionuclides where it concerns
NRC-licensees. A 90-day stay for reconsideration of this
category of emitters was requested but the justification given
was focused mainly on the nuclear medicine facilities alone.
The main issue should have been the dual regulating of all the
NRC-licensed facilities by EPA as well as by the NRC.
Some would argue that the best way to handle the situation now,
is to have a jointly signed letter go to the Congress
requesting legislation to eliminate dual regulation for
radionuclides. The sponsors of the letter would be NRC, DOE,
NIH, and EPA. (EPA agrees to do this but they have a different
text than the other agencies.) Since a similar tactic was used
for mixed waste and could never get resolved by Congress, I
don't believe this process has any chance of success -- no
matter how many stays EPA requests from the Court. When the
stays cease, EPA will then have to regulate unless the Court
rules otherwise. UNLIKELY!
I believe there is a way to resolve this problem. It is a
regulatory, not legislative, solution. My staff informs me
that OMB's regulatory oversight group (OIRA) can require EPA to
submit to OMB's OIRA the technical justification for such dual
regulation of the NRC-licensees. A reason such as EPA gave in
their new regulation (see attached) -- "EPA has decided to
regulate this category to insure that the current levels of
emissions are not increased." -- does not form the basis for
the duplication and redundancy the dual monitoring would
create. Assuming EPA cannot make an adequate justification,
OIRA can then require the removal of that category --
NRC-licensees -- from these new radionuclide regulations.
Attachments
10 mrem/y ede, will protect public health with an ample margin of
safety.
EPA has decided to regulate this category to insure that the
current levels of emissions are not increased. The requirements
of the rule assure that UFC facilities will keep emissions at or
below the level of the standard, thereby insuring an ample margin
of safety. The reporting provisions also provide the public with
information on the emissions from the facility and provides them
with assurance that the emissions will remain safe with an ample
margin of safety, regardless of changes in the facility or the
local population. Moreover, because each facility subject to
this rule must demonstrate compliance with the 10 mrem/y ede
emissions standard, it is likely that most, if not all, exposed
individuals will receive a dose significantly less than 10 mrem/y
ede. Therefore, EPA is promulgating a NESHAP mandating that
radionuclide emissions from UFC facilities shall not cause any
individual to receive a dose greater than 10 mrem/y ede.
4. Implementation
EPA has determined that the same level of
regulation is appropriate for both UFC facilities and NRC-
licensees. Therefore, EPA has removed the exemption for UFC
facilities in the NRC-licensee NESHAP and will regulate them
exactly the same as other licensees, including reporting and
recordkeeping requirements.
EPA approves the use of the current version of NRC
regulatory guidances for use in determining the emissions from
77
EPA's Radionuclide Emission Standard
SYNOPSIS:
Released 11/1/89 sets a 10m rem/yr limit on nuclear licensees'
radionuclide emissions.
A 90-day stay for reconsideration (with a 60-day comment period) was
requsted for NRC licensees, ostensibly due to "recent" input from NIH and
NRC regarding duplicative regulation and negative effects of the rule on
medical treatment. However, the wording of the stay is unclear whether nuclear
power plants are included in the reconsideration.
CONCERNS UNDER THE NEW RULE:
Dual regulation of nuclear power facilities would continue. Additionally,
states may seize the opportunity to set more stringent limits.
This rule sets an emissions limit despite EPA having determined that the
risks from our plants "are acceptable" (p. 73 of new rule). However, other
source categories with acceptable risks were not regulated under the Benzene
policy, which EPA cites as its fundmental policy.
In addition, this ruling appears to be counter to the intent of the
Clean Air Act which requires regulation to be based on control of risk.
The reason given by EPA for setting a limit for nuclear plants is "to
insure that the current levels of emissions are not increased" (p. 77 of new
rule). No justification is provided to substantiate the basis for that
speculation. ALARA applies to nuclear plants under NRC rules.
EPA recently has been expressing concern to avoid dual regulation, but
their actions indicate they insist on EPA regulation of all emissions despite
creation of a dual regulation situation. EPA appears unwilling to agree
with NRC, DOE, and HHS in preparing a joint letter to Congress on the
inadvisability of dual regulation and asking Congress to resolve.
NRC, DOE, and HHS are clearly in support of eliminating dual regulation.
RESOLUTION:
EPA should decide that the existing EPA and NRC regulations for
radionuclide emissions from commercial nuclear power plants and fuel
fabrication facilities are properly controlling the public health risks.
Additional regulation for these facilities should not be imposed because it
will expend regulatory and industry resources and will not result in human
health benefit.
This approach 1s proper because 1) it complies with the Clean Air Act,
2) complies with the court's ruling in the Vinyl Chloride Case, and 3) the
current EPA and NRC regulations very effectively control the risks for nuclear
power plants.
Environmental Protection
Public Affairs (A-107)
Agency
Washington DO 20460
EPA
Environmental News
FOR RELEASE: WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 1, 1989
EPA SETS NEW RULES FOR RADIOACTIVITY FROM INDUSTRIAL SOURCES
Dave Ryan (202) 382-2981
Final rules controlling radon and other radionuclide emissions from.
industrial sources such as nuclear weapons plants, nuclear power plants
and uranium mines were announced today by the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency.
A radionuclide is a type of atom which spontaneously disintegrates
into a different atom. People are exposed every day to radionuclides from
a variety of natural and manmade sources. Natural sources of radiation
include cosmic rays, radon gas and other terrestrial sources. Manmade
sources include medical and dental X-rays, fallout from above-ground
nuclear weapons testing and industrial facilities. Today's air pollution
rules apply only to airborne releases from industrial facilities.
Industry uses hundreds of different radionuclides in solid, liquid
and gaseous forms. Industrial radionuclide emissions occur either as a
result of an inability to contain the radioactive materials or as an
unintended consequence of other activity, such as radionuclide emissions
(usually radon) from mining or milling. An example of this second
category is phosphogypsum piles. These piles emit radon because radium
(from which radon gas is produced by radioactive decay) is found
naturally in the same soils that are the source of phosphate rock.
"Today's rules will protect public health from the risks of
industrial radioactivity," said William G. Rosenberg, EPA Assistant
Administrator for Air and Radiation. "As a result of these regulations,
over 90 percent of all Americans in the vicinity of these industries will
have less than one chance in a million of contracting fatal cancer from
radionuclides."
Numerous studies have demonstrated that radiation is a carcinogen.
Although hereditary and developmental effects were considered in this
rulemaking, cancer generally occurs more often and its effects are more
severe. EPA believes that the level of protection mandated by this rule
against cancer is sufficiently stringent to protect against hereditary
and developmental affects.
(more)
-2-
Rosenberg expressed frustration with the hurdles EPA must overcome in
protecting risks: the public from radioactive and other hazardous air pollutant
"Radionuclides provide a good example of the difficulties EPA faces
in trying to reduce hazardous air emissions under the existing Clean Air
Act. EPA officially designated radionuclides as hazardous air pollutants
in 1979 and proposed standards for them in 1983. Yet lengthy litigation
and related battles on health risk assessment issues has meant it's taken
10 years to get final rules on the books.
"Since the Clean Air Act was passed in 1970, EPA, despite its best
efforts, has been able to regulate only eight hazardous air pollutants.
Reducing hazardous emissions under the current legislative structure and
various court mandates is a lengthy, complex and cumbersome process, due
in part to unresolved debate on acceptable levels of risk. The air toxics
portion of President Bush's clean air proposal is a much better way to
go. The President's bill gives Americans significant protection from
toxic emissions right up front through the use of maximum achievable
pollution-control technology. I urge speedy Congressional action to pass
the President's bill to give Americans the health and environmental
protection they want."
Today's rule covers an estimated 6300 facilities in the following
source categories:
Source Category
Approximate number
of active facilities
1. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
6000
and non-Department of Energy
federal facilities
2. Nuclear power reactors &
135
their support facilities
3. Disposal of uranium-mill
46
tailings piles
4. Department of Energy
45
facilities
3. Phosphogypsum piles
40
6. Licensed uranium-mill-
4
tailings piles
7. Elemental phosphorus
5
plants
(more)
-3-
8. Department of Energy radon
5
sources
9. Underground uranium mines
15
:
These final regulations are issued under authority of the National
Emissions Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants provision of the Clean
Air Act (Section 112). Under this section, EPA is required to establish
emission standards for hazardous air pollutants at a level which provides
an ample margin of safety to protect public health.
Radionuclides are the second set of hazardous air pollutant
regulations issued (after those set for benzene in August) since the
landmark 1987 ruling by the Federal Appeals Court of Washington, D.C., on
vinyl chloride. In that decision, the court mandated a two-step process
for regulating hazardous air pollutants under Section 112.
In the first step, EPA must establish an "acceptable" level of risk
based solely on health considerations. In the second step, the Agency
must then set enforceable standards that provide an "ample margin of
safety" to the public. In determining the ample margin of safety, EPA may
take pollution-control costs and technological feasibility into
consideration. The final enforceable standard developed in the second
step can be tougher, but not weaker than, the "acceptable" level of risk
developed in the first stap.
In protecting public health with an ample margin of safety under
this rule, EPA is seeking to protect the greatest number of people
possible, BO that their lifetime risk of developing cancer from these
sources is less than one in a million. EPA is limiting the estimated risk
of a person living in close proximity to a radionuclide emission source
to no greater than approximately one in 10,000, assuming that person was
exposed to the maximum pollutant concentrations for 70 years.
The NRC-licensees source category covers a large variety of
different types of facilities licensed to process radioactive material,
including hospitals, radiopharmaceutical manufactureres, laboratories and
research reactors. EPA has granted a reconsideration on this source
category due to some recent information supplied by NRC and the National
Institute of Health, indicating that this rule may adversely affect the
ability of some medical facilities to use certain types of radiotherapy.
In addition, the reconsideration will examine ways to reduce the
regulatory burden caused by the dual regulation of these facilities by
EPA and NRC. EPA is also issuing a 3 month stay of this part of the rule
as provided in the Clean Air Act.
(more)
-4-
Besides radionuclides, EPA has proposed or set final uniform,
national hazardous air pollutant emission standards for asbestos,
beryllium, emissions. mercury, vinyl chloride, arsenic, benzene and coke oven
The final rules will appear soon in the Federal Register.
For further information, contact Terrence McLaughlin, Environmental
Standards Branch, Criteria and Standards Division (ANR-460), Office of
Radiation Programs, Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C.
20460; or call 202-475-9610.
###
individual risk to any individual is approximately 1.5x10⁻⁶. In
establishing the policy for setting NESHAPs in the context of
benzene, the Agency determined that emissions resulting in a
lifetime MIR no greater than approximately 1x10⁻⁴ are
presumptively acceptable. In light of the numerous uncertainties
in both establishing the parameters for the risk assessment and
in modelling actual emissions and exposure, as well as the
recognition that in achieving compliance, sources will generally
control so as to ensure a buffer exists below the actual level of
a standard, EPA judges that the MIR of 1.5x10⁻⁴ is essentially
equivalent to the presumptively safe level of approximately
1x10⁻⁴. EPA then considered the other risk factors in order to
make an overall decision on acceptability. The estimated annual
incidence is 0.1 fatal cancer per year, and approximately 99% of
that risk is borne by people whose risk is less than 1x10⁻⁶.
Only 60 individuals incur a risk greater than 1x10⁻⁶, and the
incidence in the level greater than 1x10⁻⁶ is only 0.00093.
After examining these factors, the Administrator has
determined that the baseline risks from UFC facilities are
acceptable.
Livel Cycle
Uranium
73
H-79-11
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
40 CFR Part 61
National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants;
Regulation of Radionuclides
AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency [EPA]
ACTION: Final Rule and Notice of Reconsideration
SUMMARY: This notice announces the Administrator's fina
decisions on National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air
Pollutants (NESHAPs) under Section 112 of the Clean Air Act for
emissions of radionuclides from the following source categories:
DOE Facilities, Licensees of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission
and Non-DOE Federal Facilities, Uranium Fuel Cycle Facilities,
Elemental Phosphorus Plants, Coal-Fired Boilers, High-level
Nuclear Waste Disposal Facilities, Phosphogypsum Stacks,
Underground and Surface Uranium Mines, and the operation and
disposal of Uranium Mill Tailings Piles. ne notice also
responds to the major public comments on the March 7, 1989
proposed decisions for these categories [54 FR 9612]. EPA is
conducting this rulemaking pursuant to a voluntary remand and a
schedule issued by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit
which requires final action by October 31, 1989.
In addition EPA
is granting a reconsideration of the standards of 40 CFR Part 61
Subpart I, with respect to the issues of 1 duplicative regulation
2
and possible effects on medical treatment.
( )
EFFECTIVE DATE: (Date of publication in FEDERAL REGISTER).
Under Section 307 (b) (1) of the CAA, judicial review of decisions
under Section 112 is available only by filing a petition for
methodologies and quality assurance programs described in
paragraph 61.107 (b) or may use the following:
Section
I
(1) Nuclear power reactors may determine their radionuclide
emissions in conformance with the Effluent Technical
Specifications contained in their Operating License issued by the
Nuclear Regulatory Commission. In addition, they may conduct a
quality assurance program as described in the Nuclear Regulatory
Commission's Regulatory Guide 4.15 dated February 1979.
(2) Fuel processing and fabrication plants and uranium
hexafloride plants may determine their emissions in conformance
with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Regulatory Guide 4.16
dated December 1985. In addition, they may conduct a quality
assurance program as described in the Nuclear Regulatory
Commission's Regulatory Guide 4.15 dated February 1979.
(3) Uranium mills may determine their emission in
conformance with the Nuclear Regulatory C mission's Regulatory
Guide 4.14 dated April 1980. In addition, they may conduct a
quality assurance program as described in the Nuclear Regulatory
Commission's Regulatory Guide 4.15 dated February 1979.
Section 61.108 Exemption from the Reporting and Testing
Requirements of 40 CFR 61.10.
All facilities designated under this subpart are exempt from
the reporting requirements of 40 CFR 61.10.
Subpart K - National Emission Standards for Radionuclide
226
EPA has decided that the system discussed for
DOE facilities also be used for this source category except that
the sources will not use CAP-88 to calculate the doses. Instead
they will use the screening models (COMPLY code) described in the
BID.
5.
Reconsideration of NRC Licensee Category
Late in the rulemaking, issues related to the
application of the standard in Subpart I to NRC licensees were
presented to EPA which raised serious concerns about possible
effects of duplicative, and perhaps conflicting, standards on
NRC-licensees, including, for example, the use of radioisotope
therapies by the National Institute of Health (NIH) and other
medical facilities. A The concerns arise from the fact that these
licensees would be regulated by both a Clean Air Act standard
under Subpart I and an existing NRC standard under 10 CFR Part
20. While the level of health protection achieved under the NRC
standard is generally comparable to that required by EPA's rule,
the two standards are very different in form, and the means of
demonstrating compliance with each standard impose significantly
different regulatory requirements. The basic issue is whether
these different regulatory requirements will discourage the use
of radioisotopes in medical and experimental therapies. In
addition, NRC has raised the issue of whether regulation of its
licensees under a Clean Air Act standard provides any additional
public health benefits.
EPA has expressed similar concerns in past proceedings on
69a
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
October 13, 1989
MEMORANDUM FOR JOHN H. SUNUNU
FROM:
D. ALLAN BROMLEY
DAR.
SUBJECT:
Global Change Activities
In case you had not seen it previously, I enclose herewith a
copy of a recent item published in Nature concerning the
factor of 2 reduction in the temperature change predicted in
the U.K. global change models following a first order
introduction of cloud phenomena. In my view, this simply
highlights the uncertainties in our present predictive
capabilities in this area and the difficulties and dangers
involved in basing major greenhouse amelioratory programs on
current predictions and understanding unless there are other
major independent reasons why the individual programs make
sense at the present time.
I have been concerned by recent rumors to the effect that
EPA was moving toward support of CO₂ reduction programs of a
substantial nature. I have been unable to make contact
directly with Bill Reilly to check this out because we have
recently had essentially orthogonal calendars. Recently I
had a visit from Mindir Baldur Wagner, the Director of
Domestic Programs in the FRG's Chancellor's Office, who is a
strong supporter of such programs. He mentioned to me in
passing that he was surprised by my position that the
currently available science did not support such programs at
the present time when EPA, with whom he had visited just
previously, had indicated strong support for programs
directed toward major CO₂ emission reduction prior to 2000.
He wanted to know which was the official U.S. position, and
I believe that it is important for us to settle this matter
internally SO that we can present a united, coherent posture
in our discussions with foreign groups and leaders.
Attachment
NEWS AND VIEWS
CLIMATE CHANGE
Wetter clouds dampen global
and the fact that 14 models give 14 different
answers for the cloud feedback, show
that we are far from the goal of accurate
greenhouse warming
predictions of future climate change.
Sensitivity studies such as that reported by
Mitchell et al. and comparisons between
Tony Slingo
models as done by Cess et al. are now the
VARIATIONS in cloudiness can signifi-
clear that uncertainty in how to formulate
bread and butter of climate modelling.
cantly affect the Earth's radiation budget
clouds represents a formidable obstacle to
But at the present rate of progress, it will
- the absorbed solar energy and the
reliable climate prediction.
be several years before reliable predictions
thermal energy radiated back to space¹.
This underlines the continuing need for
of global and regional climate change are
This conclusion is supported by various
physical parameterizations to be compared
available from the models. That under-
modelling studies of the 'greenhouse'
with results from field studies. This is par-
lines the need for comprehensive monitor-
effects of increased CO. concentrations
ticularly important now that models are
ing that is capable of unravelling the
In these studies. the CO, forcing induces
becoming increasingly complex. Mitchell
climate change signal from the noise and
changes in the cloud coverage and liquid-
et al. argue that the assumptions in their
of providing enough data on the state of
water content. which alter the radiation
model are 'at least qualitatively realistic',
the atmosphere, the Earth's radiation
budget further and thus "modify the
but if climate change simulations are to be
budget and clouds for the feedbacks to be
original perturbation. On page 132 of this
believable. then all parts of a model must
determined by observation. Such an
issue. Mitchell et al. add a new twist to the
be validated quantitatively. and important
analysis may well yield the fifteenth
story, showing how changes in the relative
processes that are ignored must be identi-
answer but at least it will have come from
amounts of ice-crystal and water-drop
fied. Of particular relevance to the cloud
the real world and will permit a much
clouds substantially reduce the sensitivity
problem is the FIRE programme (first
needed test of the models.
of their model to changes in concentration
regional experiment of the international
of CO.. Indeed. it is becoming apparent
satellite cloud climatology project). both
Tony Slingo is in the Climate and Global
that uncertainties in the treatment of
in its stratocumulus and cirrus field
Dynamics Division of the National Center for
clouds severely undermine model predic-
phases. Several papers are in preparation
Atmospheric Research. PO Box 3000. Boulder.
Colorado 80307. USA.
tion of climate.
that highlight the complexity of the meso-
Mitchell et al. used various versions of
scale dynamical structure of cirrus. so that
the UK Meteorological Office atmos-
the fall-speed of ice crystals is only part of
1 Ramanathan V et al Science 243 57-63 (1989)
pheric general circulation model" coupled
the story. It is also interesting that two
2 Schlesinger. M.E. & Mitchell. J.F B. Rev Geophys 25
760-798(1987).
to a 50-m ocean mixed layer Replacing
cases of highly supercooled liquid-water
3 Schlesinger, M.E. Nature 335 303-304 (1988)
the standard cloud prediction scheme
altostratus clouds at temperatures around
4 Roeckner E. Nature 335 304 1988).
based on relative humidity by a more
°C were observed (A.J. Heymsfield
5 Mitchell J.F.B. Senior C.A. & Ingram. W.J. Nature 341
132-134(1989)
sophisticated prescription including liquid
et al., personal communication). which
6. Slingo. A., Wilderspin. R.C. & Smith. R.N.B. J. geophys
water and ice virtually halves the average
suggests that the transition from water to
Res 94 2281-2301(1989)
7. Wilson, C.A. & Mitchell. J.F.B. J. geophys. Res. 92.
equilibrium surface warming due to
ice clouds is more subtle than Mitchell et
13315-13343(1987)
doubled CO.- from 5.2 K to 2.7 K. They
al. assumed for their model.
8. Cess. R.D. et al Science 245. 513-516 (1989).
9 Albrecht. B A., Randall, D.A. & Nicholls S. Bull. Am met
argue that this spectacular sensitivity to
The sebstantial sensitivity of climate
Soc 69 618-626(1988).
details of the cloud scheme is caused by
models the details of their formulation.
10. Starr. C. Bull. Arr: met. foc 28 119-124(1987)
the replacement of ice clouds by water
FCOLOGY
clouds near the freezing level. In the new
cloud scheme. the fall-speed assumed for
water drops is much smaller than that for
Just proportions in food webs
crystals. so that liquid-water clouds can
dissipate more slowly than ice clouds.
Joel E. Cohen
According to Mitchell et al., this leads to
the predicted relative increase in water
IN FOOD webs of natural communities
with new functional patterns.
clouds near the freezing level. which con-
with varying numbers of species. the
McNaughton et al. show that the bio-
sequently reduces the amount of solar
number of green plants and other species
mass. consumption and net secondary
energy absorbed in the system (more is
that consume no prey in the web basal
productivity (NSP) of herbivores are all
reflected back into space) and hence gives
species) is nearly proportional. on aver-
related to the net above-ground primary
a smaller warming. When. in addition.
age, to the number of species that have
productivity (NAP) of a natural habitat by
cloud radiative properties are allowed to
both predators and prey in the web (inter-
simple power laws. Particularly striking is
depend on the liquid-water content of
mediate species). according to studies
that the exponent of the power law that
clouds. the surface warming drops still
reported over the past dozen years
relates NSP to NAP is not significantly
further. to only 1.9K.
Empirical rules" of that type describe
different from 1: to a first approximation.
The strong dependence of the magni-
structural or anatomical properties of
NSP and NAP are directly proportional
tude of cloud feedback in this work on the
food webs. An important question in
In effect. the energy converted into herbi-
details of the model parallels results pre-
community ecology is whether parallel
vores per square metre of surface area
sented recently by a large ad hoc group
regularities exist in the way in which food
per year is. on average. about one-
(including Mitchell and mvself) led by
webs function On page 142 of this
thousandth of the energy that is converted
Robert Cess of the State University of
issue'. McNaughton et al. report remark-
into plants per square metre of surface
New York. We compared 14 general
able regularities in measures of food web
area per year. The ecological energy
circulation models and found a three-fold
function. Then findings indicate the exist-
pyramid has a much larger base than
variation in global climate sensitivity.
ence of a physiology of food webs that
second storey.
caused largely by differences in the cloud
generalizes across natural communities.
This proportionality would be a trivial-
feedbacks. The models disagreed not only
Their report opens up the distant. but
ity if secondary productivity were pas-
as to the magnitude but also the sign of the
highly attractive. prospect of linking the
sively controlled and limited by primary
net cloud feedback. For this reason. it is
préviously known structural regularities
productivity. But this trickle-down view or
104
NATURE VOL 341 : 14 SEPTEMBER 1989
LETTERS 10 NATURE
TABLE 2 Newtonian error and signal strength
model⁸ cloud cover is a function of relative humidity. A second
version of the model was constructed with an explicit cloud-
Maximum 1-µm shape error
Fifth force
water variable for all but deep convective cloud⁹. A balance is
Distance
Displacement
Strain
Displacement
Strain
maintained between cloud water content and water vapour,
r
f2S
f2n
f2SA²/a
f2hr2/a
which is altered by dynamical, convective and boundary-layer
(m)
(m s⁻²)
(s⁻²)
(m³ s⁻²)
(m²s⁻²)
processes. Cloud water content is depleted by precipitation at
2
4 x10⁻¹⁸
2x10⁻¹⁷
1.1x10⁻¹³
3x10⁻¹³
a rate dependent on the phase of the cloud water, which is a
4
1.3x10⁻¹⁹
3x10⁻¹⁹
1.4x10⁻¹⁴
2x10⁻¹⁴
function of the local temperature of the layer. For water cloud
8
4 x10⁻²¹
5x10⁻²¹
1.8x10⁻¹⁵
1.3x10⁻¹⁵
the rate of conversion to precipitation increases as a function
of the in-cloud water content and is marginally enhanced in the
presence of precipitation from higher layers. The transition from
The results detailed here show that it may be feasible to use
water cloud to ice cloud occurs between -15 °C and 0 °C as a
the asymmetric monopole to test the fifth-force hypothesis,
smoothly varying function of temperature. Ice-cloud particles
although the experiment is obviously not easy, and practical
are assumed to start falling as soon as they form, with a fixed
problems remain to be examined in detail. For example, there
fall speed of 1 s⁻¹. The rate of precipitation of ice is, on
are small elastic distortions in a rotating body as a result of
average, an order of magnitude greater than that of water even
centrifugal forces. The shape defined by Table 1 is the shape
in the presence of precipitation from the layer above. Cloud
that must be achieved at the final rotation speed. A numerical
radiative properties were prescribed. Note that although the
calculation would give the correct initial shape for a given
material. Advantages of the experiment are that the experiment
revised cloud scheme is more detailed, it is not necessarily more
is a null one and one can adjust the shape to find the null, and
accurate than the less sophisticated scheme. Our work highlights
that only octupole-patterned deformations give rise to error
how different parameterization schemes can affect the sensitivity
of the climate to CO2.
signals as large as in Table 2. Also, the parameters I have chosen
(size, distance, tolerance and material) are nominal. There is
Two simulations, with CO₂ concentrations of 320 and
640 p.p.m., were performed for each version of the model. The
also the possibility that a refinement of this idea, or an incorpor-
ation of the mathematical idea into other experimental tech-
results shown here are averaged over five years after the simula-
niques (such as torsion balances) may prove effective. I note
tions reached equilibrium. On replacing the relative-humidity
cloud scheme⁸ (henceforth referred to as RH) with the model
that the experiment would not depend on any variation of the
fifth force with chemical composition, as do many of the recent
based on cloud water content9 (CW), the global annual average
experiments.
surface warming is reduced from 5.2K to 2.7 K. The largest
fractional reduction in the warming occurs in higher latitudes
(Fig. la) where the large decreases in total cloud cover with
Received 8 Mar: accepted 31 July 1989
RH have been replaced by much smaller reductions or slight
1. Sinskv J. A Phys Rev 167, 1145-1151 1968)
increases (Fig. 1b).
2. Hyrakawa x & Kuroda. K Phvs Rev. D32, 342-346 1985).
With RH, reductions in cloud cover are found throughout the
3. Stubos C. W Nature 338, 301-302 (1989)
4 Stacey E D et al. Rev Mod Phys 59, 157-174 (1987)
depth of the mid-latitude troposphere (Fig. 2a), as in earlier
5. Duff G. E D & Naylor. D. Differential Equations of Applied Mathematics 356 (Wiley New York
studies³. With CW, the main differences in response occur near
1966)
6. Ward H et a Proc. int. Symp Expi Gravitational Phvs leds Michelson P F Hu E.-L and Pizzella
the freezing level Fig. 2b) where, in the warmer doubled-CO₂
G.)
322-327 World Scientific Singapore 1988).
7 Dei
Faobro R et ai Phvs Lett. A124, 253-257 (1987)
8 Del Fabbro R et al Phys Lett A132. 237-240 (1987)
a
9. Thorne K S in 300 Years of Gravitation leds Hawking, S W & israel. W. 330-458 (Cambridge
University Press 1987)
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS thank G Gibbons for discussions about the fifth force J Hough for discussions
about detectors and M Hindmarsh for practical help
Temperature (K)
CO2 and climate: a missing
feedback?
J. F. B. Mitchell, C. A. Senior & W. J. Ingram
Latitude
Meteorological Office. London Road. Bracknell RG12 2SZ. UK
THE potential of changes in cloud properties to modulate climate
perturbations is well known¹.². Changes in cloud amount and cloud
height³. cloud radiative properties and cloud condensation
nuclei (CCN) have all been recognized as possible sources of
climate feedbacks. Here we report results of simulations that
indicate that the changes of state of cloud water may provide a
substantial negative feedback on climate. The feedback is concen-
trated in mid-latitudes and affects both the magnitude and distribu-
Fraction 2,
tion of the climate change expected from increases in 'greenhouse'
gases. Improved measurements and parameterizations of cloud
processes are needed to quantify this process.
The model is an 11-level atmospheric general-circulation
model on a 5°x7.5° (latitude X longitude) horizontal grid
Latitude
coupled to a 50-m mixed-layer ocean with a prescribed sea-
sonally and geographically varying oceanic heat convergence
FIG. 1 Zone-averaged equilibrium changes in a. surface temperature and b.
to represent heat advection by ocean currents. In the standard
fractional cloud cover on doubling CO₂ (five-year means). Solid line. simulation
with CW. Dashed line. simulation with RH.
132
NATURE VOL 341 14 SEPTEMBER 1989
LETTERS TO NATURE
second
simulation, ice cloud which is depleted rapidly by precipitation
however, suggesting that any radiative feedback from this type
cloud-
is replaced by water cloud which is depleted more slowly, so
of cloud would be small.
lance is
that cloud cover increases. This can be seen more clearly in the
The lower-cloud increases in the simulations arise from the
vapour,
height-latitude distribution of the changes in cloud liquid water
assumption that under similar conditions ice is removed more
ry-layer
and cloud ice (Fig. 3). Also shown are the mean 0 °C and -15 °C
efficiently from cloud than water. In real water clouds, relatively
ition at
isotherms in the control simulation. Because of the increases in
few droplets become large enough to fall out, as the available
ch is a
cloud, the enhanced absorption of solar radiation in mid-lati-
condensed water is spread over many cloud condensation nuclei
r cloud
tudes found with RH is greatly reduced when using CW (Fig. 4).
(CCN)¹ Very few CCN act as ice nuclei¹, so in ice clouds the
inction
One can define a climate sensitivity parameter À (=4Q/AT)
cloud water is spread over fewer, larger particles, all of which
1 in the
where AQ is the change in radiative heating at the tropopause
have appreciable fall speeds¹⁴. The microphysics of mixed-phase
in from
on doubling CO₂ and AT is the equilibrium change in surface
clouds are complex and not fully understood. Although our
C as a
temperature. Assuming¹⁰ AQ=4Wm⁻², À is increased from
model does not explicitly represent them it effectively includes
articles
0.77 to 1.48 W K⁻¹ on replacing RH by CW. Thus changes
their most important aspect, the continual rapid conversion of
a fixed
in the phase of cloud water provide a strong negative feedback
water to ice¹⁵. A more complex representation would certainly
is, on
on climate, cancelling almost all the previous strong positive
change the pattern in Fig. 2 locally, but the vertically integrated
er even
feedback from cloud in RH". Although our model does not
response would probably depend primarily on the overall
Cloud
allow for this process in deep convective clouds, these have a
change from pure ice cloud to pure water cloud. Thus our
gh the
small areal coverage and a relatively high liquid-water content,
assumptions concerning the relative fall-out of ice and water
y more
are at least qualitatively realistic.
hlights
As 1 m s⁻¹ may be a large value for ice fall speed, we have
sitivity
rerun experiment CW using a parameterization of fall speed in
:
a
terms of ice-water content based on observations¹⁴ (experiment
0 and
02
CWH). For typical simulated ice-water contents, this gives fall
el. The
speeds of 0.2 m s⁻¹ for high ice cloud and 0.7 m s⁻¹ for ice cloud
03
imula-
near the freezing level. Cloud changes Fig. 2c) are qualitatively
midity
24
similar to Fig. 2b and the global warming is 3.2 K, only slightly
model
05
larger than in CW. The similarity between CW and CWH is to
verage
be expected, given that the depletion rate of ice relative to water
06
largest
is large near the freezing level in both experiments.
titudes
07
It has recently been suggested that changes in cloud radiative
IT with
properties may contribute an important feedback to climate
08
slight
In a warmer climate, greater cloud water content would increase
09
cloud albedos (a negative feedback) and emittances (a positive
out the
so
60
5
20
20
40
50
80
feedback). A further experiment was carried out using the
earlier
Latitude
revised version of the model with an additional modification to
ir near
0'
d-CO₂
b
02
a
03
04
05
35
06
07
08
(3
09
o
3)
80
60
&
20
)
20
40
60
80
30
50
8
3
0
3
40
60
80
Latitude
Latitude
01
c
02
0
1
b
03
04
0
05
0
06-
0
(-)
087
09
0
30
50
40
20
8
20
40
8
Latitude
Latitude
FIG. 2 Height-latitude cross-section of equilibrium changes in cloud amount
FIG. 3 Height-latitude cross-section of equilibrium changes in cloud water
on doubling CO₂ The height coordinate is σ (pressure/surface pressure).
in CW on doubling CO₂ The height coordinate is σ. Areas of reduction are
and b.
Areas of reduction are stippled and the contours are every 1%. The dashed
stippled. The dashed lines are the 0 and -15 °C contours from the contro
ulation
lines are the 0 and -15 °C contours from the control simulation. a. Simulation
simulation. a. Liquid-water content only. Contours every 4 10⁻⁶
with RH. b. Simulation with CW. C. Simulation with CWH.
b. Ice-water content only. Contours every 4 10⁻⁷ kg
1989
NATURE VOL 341 14 SEPTEMBER 1989
133
LETTERS TO NATURE
20
5. Roeckner. E. Nature 335, 304 (1988).
8
6. Schlesinger, M. E. Nature 335, 303-304 (1988).
7. Charlson. R. 1 et at. Nature 334, 418-420 (1988).
16
8. Mitchell. L F. B. & Warnlow. D. A. Nature 330, 238-240 (1987).
9. Smith R. N. B. Q. J R met Soc. (in the press).
14
10. Dickinson, R. E. & Cicerone. R. J. Nature 319, 109-115 (1985).
11. Wilson, C. A. & Mitchell. J. F B. 1 geophys. Res. 92, 13.315-13,343 (1987).
12
12. Pruppacher, H. R. & Klett. J. D. Microphysics of Cloud and Precipitation (Reidel, Dordrecht. 1978
13. Heymsfield. A. J. & Sabin. R. M. 1 atmos. Sci. 46, 2252-2264 (1989).
Solar flux (W m
14. Heymsfield. A. J. 1 atmos. Sci. 34, 367-381 (1977).
10
15. Mason. B. J. The Physics of Clouds (Clarendon, Oxford 1957).
8
16. Somerville. R. C. J. & Remer. L A. 1. geophys. Res. 89, 9668-9672 (1984).
17. Liou. K.-N. & Wittman. G. D. L atmos. Scr 36, 1261-1273 (1979).
18. Stephens. G. L. 1 atmos. Sci. 35, 2123-2132 (1978).
6
19. (1988). Somerville. R. C. J. & lacobellis. S. Am. Met Soc. 7th Conf. Ocean-Atmos. interaction 53-5
4
20. Liou, K.-N. & Ou S.-C. Preprints of 10th nt Cloud Phys. Conf. Vol. H. 118-120 (1988).
21. Schlesinger, M. E. & Mitchell. J.F. B. Rev. Geophys 25, 760-798 (1987).
2
22. Hansen, J. E. et al. Geophysical Monographs Series Vol. 29, 130-163 (American Geophysic
Union. Washington, DC. 1984).
0
23. Jones. P. D. et al. Nature 338, 790 (1988).
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 -90
Latitude
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS. We would like to thank R. Smith who devised and wrote the cloud wate
scheme used.
FIG. 4 Zone-averaged equilibrium change in net solar flux at the top of the
atmosphere on doubling CO2 (five-year mean). Solid line, simulation with
CW. Dashed line. simulation with RH.
Disequilibrium silicate minerah
allow the cloud radiative properties to depend on the cloud
textures: fractal and
water content (scheme CWRP). (Given the similarity between
CW and CWH, this experiment was carried out with the CW
non-fractal features
formulation only.) Analytical fits of the short-wave albedo and
transmittance as functions of cloud-water path and solar zenith
Anthony D. Fowler*, H. Eugene Stanley
angle were made to a published scheme¹ based on observations
& Gérard Daccord
and theoretical considerations. The long-wave flux emittance
was given by (-kq)) where q is the condensed-water
* Ottawa-Carleton Geoscience Centre, University of Ottawa. Ottawa.
path and K = for water clouds and 0.065 for
Ontario. Canada K1N 6N5
ice clouds¹⁸.
T Center for Polymer Studies and Department of Physics,
On doubling the CO2 concentrations the global annual
Boston University, Boston. Massachusetts 02215. USA
average equilibrium surface temperature increased by 1.9 K with
+ Dowell Schlumberger, Z.I. Molina. BP 90. 42003 St Etienne, Cedex 1.
France
CWRP compared to 2.7K with prescribed cloud radiative
properties (CW), indicating a further increase in À to
2.1 Wm⁻² K⁻¹. This negative feedback from changes in cloud
IGNEOUS rocks formed from lava flows of the Archaean era
radiative properties lies between the very strong negative feed-
(>2,700 million years ago) are often found to contain disequili-
back suggested by one-dimensional calculations 16,19 and the
brium-textured crystals characterized by spherulitic, branching or
positive feedback found in a previous study with a low-resol-
dendritic morphologies that occur in layers near the flow surface.
ution general-circulation model (GCM)⁴⁻⁶. We note that all
Well-known examples are the plagioclase spherulites of basalts
existing numerical studies assume that the number of CCN
and the platy and branching spinnifex-textured olivines and
remains constant under climate change. Changes in CCN are a
pyroxenes of komatiites Here we present evidence that, over a
further possible source of feedback
finite range of length scales, some disequilibrium textures are scale
The sensitivity of the climate to doubling the CO₂ concentra-
invariant. This observation Implies that over this range of length
tions that we have found is substantially smaller than the 4-5 K
scales their random patterns can be quantitatively characterized
found in other recent studies¹⁰.²¹ A significant part of this
by a unique number, the fractal dimension³. We also demonstrate
reduction in sensitivity is due to the different cloud scheme. If
that some textures have a crossover from fractal to non-fractal
correct this will have two important consequences. First, the
behaviour. It is known that most disequilibrium crystals arise in
equilibrium warming expected from the estimated 2 Wm⁻²
part from rapid cooling and represent the case where the growth
increase in radiative heating at the tropopause since 1860 (ref.
rates of the crystals, are large compare to the diffusion rates in
will be smaller. Second, the proportion of the equilibrium
the silicate melt¹.²,⁴ We therefore formulate a quantitative model
for the growth that is based on a variant of diffusion-limited
reached will be greater, because the thermal response time of
aggregation (DLA)5.
the climate system is reduced if climate sensitivity is reduced²².
Based on calculations using a simple one-dimensional model
Figure 1 shows a section of small disequilibrium crystals, at
of the ocean, the expected warming to date, using the climate
different magnifications. These form close to the quench/glassy
sensitivity found when employing CW, is 0.6 K. This is close to
margin of some lava flows⁶, and their outline remains the same
the observed warming since the beginning of the century (0.5 K;
as the microscope objective power is increased Similar remarks
ref. 23). The record of observations shows considerable variabil-
can be made about textures on other length scales, such as the
ity on interannual and interdecadal timescales, however, includ-
much larger branching pyroxene crystal of Fig. 2a.
ing a period of cooling during the 1950s and 1960s, so that it
The concepts and techniques of fractal geometry have proven
is not possible to attribute the 0.5 K rise unambiguously to the
useful in understanding other random morphologies, in part
effect of increases in trace gases.
because a fractal object is characterized quantitatively by a
number, the fractal dimension d,, that relates the increase in
mass M of the object to its characteristic length scale L, M = L1
Received 14 June: accepted 14 August 1989
(ref. 7)
1. Manabe. S. & Wetherald. R. T J. atmos Sci, 24. 241-259 (1967)
To determine d, we digitized photographs of the textures using
2. Schneider, S. H. J. atmos Sci. 29. 1413-1422 (1972).
a video camera with a grid of 65,536 pixels. First we randomly
3. Wetherald. R. T & Manabe S 1 atmos. Sci. 45. 1397-1415 (1988).
4 Roeckner. E. et al Nature 329. 138-140 (1987)
chose any pixel belonging to the digitized texture. About this
'local origin' we constructed a sequence of concentric shells of
134
NATURE VOL 341 14 SEPTEMBER 1989
DAB-FYI
Dr. Bromley:
10/13/89
OPINION
Based upon my listening very hard to both our
domestic and international communities (scientific
and policy) over the past weeks, I think it is very
important for both you and the President to come
across as strong supporters for positive and
agressive steps to protect the global environment.
Of course, we must proceed with a realistic and
careful view of the costs/impacts across the board
(industry, etc) but we must appear to be out front
environmentally.
Important: There is a risk here that you, OSTP,
and the President may appear to be foot-dragging on the
issue, when, in fact, we are attempting to shape a
careful, prudent, and coordinated US Gov't approach
and policy.
I will be meeting with DPC folks this afternoon
matter. (Also, on the matter of climate Models)
on the issue but we should talk soon on the entire N.
Sensible article by Slingo attached
on climate models- d think we
should use caution in the use or
reference to these models. There
is no question now that changes
will occur The modela present
different scenarion of change.
Most agree, however, that
we need to respond- we just need
to determine the most sensible way
to respond as a government
NEWS AND VIEWS
CLIMATE CHANGE
Wetter clouds dampen global
and the fact that 14 models give 14 different
answers for the cloud feedback, show
that we are far from the goal of accurate
greenhouse warming
predictions of future climate change.
Sensitivity studies such as that reported by
Tony Slingo
Mitchell et al. and comparisons between
models as done by Cess et al. are now the
VARIATIONS in cloudiness can signifi-
clear that uncertainty in how to formulate
bread and butter of climate modelling.
cantly affect the Earth's radiation budget
clouds represents a formidable obstacle to
But at the present rate of progress, it will
- the absorbed solar energy and the
reliable climate prediction.
be several years before reliable predictions
thermal energy radiated back to space¹.
This underlines the continuing need for
of global and regional climate change are
This conclusion is supported by various
physical parameterizations to be compared
available from the models. That under-
modelling studies of the 'greenhouse'
with results from field studies. This is par-
lines the need for comprehensive monitor-
effects of increased CO₂ concentrations².
ticularly important now that models are
ing that is capable of unravelling the
In these studies, the CO, forcing induces
becoming increasingly complex. Mitchell
climate change signal from the noise and
changes in the cloud coverage and liquid-
et al. argue that the assumptions in their
of providing enough data on the state of
water content, which alter the radiation
model are 'at least qualitatively realistic',
the atmosphere, the Earth's radiation
budget further and thus modify the
but if climate change simulations are to be
budget and clouds for the feedbacks to be
original perturbation. On page 132 of this
believable, then all parts of a model must
determined by observation. Such an
issue', Mitchell et al. add a new twist to the
be validated quantitatively, and important
analysis may well yield the fifteenth
story, showing how changes in the relative
processes that are ignored must be identi-
answer but at least it will have come from
amounts of ice-crystal and water-drop
fied. Of particular relevance to the cloud
the real world and will permit a much
clouds substantially reduce the sensitivity
problem is the FIRE programme (first
needed test of the models.
of their model to changes in concentration
regional experiment of the international
of CO2. Indeed. it is becoming apparent
satellite cloud climatology project), both
Tony Slingo is in the Climate and Global
that uncertainties in the treatment of
in its stratocumulus and cirrus¹ field
Dynamics Division of the National Center for
clouds severely undermine model predic-
phases. Several papers are in preparation
Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000, Boulder,
tion of climate.
that highlight the complexity of the meso-
Colorado 80307, USA.
Mitchell et al. used various versions of
scale dynamical structure of cirrus, so that
the UK Meteorological Office atmos-
the fall-speed of ice crystals is only part of
1. Ramanathan, V. et al. Science 243. 57-63 (1989).
pheric general circulation model coupled
the story. It is also interesting that two
2. Schlesinger, M.E. & Mitchell, J.F.B. Rev. Geophys. 25.
to a 50-m ocean mixed layer'. Replacing
cases of highly supercooled liquid-water
760-798 (1987).
3. Schlesinger, M.E. Nature 335. 303-304 (1988).
the standard cloud prediction scheme
altostratus clouds at temperatures around
4. Roeckner. E. Nature 335. 304 (1988).
based on relative humidity by a more
-30 °C were observed (A.J. Heymsfield
5. Mitchell, J.F.B., Senior, C.A. & Ingram, W.J. Nature 341.
132-134 (1989).
sophisticated prescription including liquid
et al., personal communication), which
6. Slingo, A., Wilderspin, R.C. & Smith, R.N.B. J. geophys.
water and ice virtually halves the average
suggests that the transition from water to
Res. 94. 2281-2301 (1989).
equilibrium surface warming due to
ice clouds is more subtle than Mitchell et
7. Wilson, C.A. & Mitchell, J.F.B. J. geophys. Res. 92.
13315-13343 (1987).
doubled CO, from 5.2 K to 2.7 K. They
al. assumed for their model.
8. Cess. R.D. et al. Science 245, 513-516 (1989).
argue that this spectacular sensitivity to
The substantial sensitivity of climate
9. Albrecht, B.A., Randall, D.A. & Nicholls. S. Bull. Am. met.
Soc. 69, 618-626 (1988).
details of the cloud scheme is caused by
models to the details of their formulation,
10. Starr, D.O.'C. Bull. Am. met. Soc. 68. 119-124 (1987).
the replacement of ice clouds by water
ECOLOGY
clouds near the freezing level. In the new
cloud scheme, the fall-speed assumed for
water drops is much smaller than that for
Just proportions in food webs
ice crystals, so that liquid-water clouds can
dissipate more slowly than ice clouds.
Joel E. Cohen
According to Mitchell et al., this leads to
the predicted relative increase in water
IN FOOD webs of natural communities
with new functional patterns.
clouds near the freezing level, which con-
with varying numbers of species, the
McNaughton et al. show that the bio-
sequently reduces the amount of solar
number of green plants and other species
mass, consumption and net secondary
energy absorbed in the system (more is
that consume no prey in the web (basal
productivity (NSP) of herbivores are all
reflected back into space) and hence gives
species) is nearly proportional, on aver-
related to the net above-ground primary
a smaller warming. When, in addition,
age, to the number of species that have
productivity (NAP) of a natural habitat by
cloud radiative properties are allowed to
both predators and prey in the web (inter-
simple power laws. Particularly striking is
depend on the liquid-water content of
mediate species), according to studies
that the exponent of the power law that
clouds, the surface warming drops still
reported over the past dozen years
relates NSP to NAP is not significantly
further. to only 1.9 K.
Empirical rules⁵.⁶ of that type describe
different from 1: to a first approximation.
The strong dependence of the magni-
structural or anatomical properties of
NSP and NAP are directly proportional.
tude of cloud feedback in this work on the
food webs. An important question in
In effect, the energy converted into herbi-
details of the model parallels results pre-
community ecology is whether parallel
vores per square metre of surface area
sented recently* by a large ad hoc group
regularities exist in the way in which food
per year is, on average, about one-
(including Mitchell and myself) led by
webs function⁷ On page 142 of this
thousandth of the energy that is converted
Robert Cess of the State University of
issue, McNaughton et al. report remark-
into plants per square metre of surface
New York. We compared 14 general
able regularities in measures of food web
area per year. The ecological energy
circulation models and found a three-fold
function. Their findings indicate the exist-
pyramid has a much larger base than
variation in global climate sensitivity,
ence of a physiology of food webs that
second storey.
caused largely by differences in the cloud
generalizes across natural communities.
This proportionality would be a trivial-
feedbacks. The models disagreed not only
Their report opens up the distant, but
ity if secondary productivity were pas-
as to the magnitude but also the sign of the
highly attractive, prospect of linking the
sively controlled and limited by primary
net cloud feedback. For this reason, it is
préviously known structural regularities
productivity. But this trickle-down view of
104
NATURE VOL 341 14 SEPTEMBER 1989
LETTERS TO NATURE
TABLE 2 Newtonian error and signal strength
model⁸ cloud cover is a function of relative humidity. A second
version of the model was constructed with an explicit cloud-
Maximum 1-µm shape error
Fifth force
water variable for all but deep convective cloud⁹. A balance is
Distance
Displacement
Strain
Displacement
Strain
maintained between cloud water content and water vapour,
r
f2S
f2h
f²SX²/α
f2hx2/α
which is altered by dynamical, convective and boundary-layer
(m)
(ms⁻²)
(s⁻²)
(m³ s⁻²)
(m²s⁻²)
processes. Cloud water content is depleted by precipitation at
2
4 x10⁻¹⁸
2x10⁻¹⁷
1.1x10⁻¹³
3x10⁻¹³
a rate dependent on the phase of the cloud water, which is a
4
1.3x10⁻¹⁹
3x10⁻¹⁹
1.4x10⁻¹⁴
2x10⁻¹⁴
function of the local temperature of the layer. For water cloud
8
4 x10⁻²¹
5x10⁻²¹
1.8x10⁻¹⁵
1.3x10⁻¹⁵
the rate of conversion to precipitation increases as a function
of the in-cloud water content and is marginally enhanced in the
presence of precipitation from higher layers. The transition from
The results detailed here show that it may be feasible to use
water cloud to ice cloud occurs between -15 °C and 0 °C as a
the asymmetric monopole to test the fifth-force hypothesis,
smoothly varying function of temperature. Ice-cloud particles
although the experiment is obviously not easy, and practical
are assumed to start falling as soon as they form, with a fixed
problems remain to be examined in detail. For example, there
fall speed of 1 m s⁻¹. The rate of precipitation of ice is, on
are small elastic distortions in a rotating body as a result of
average, an order of magnitude greater than that of water even
centrifugal forces. The shape defined by Table 1 is the shape
in the presence of precipitation from the layer above. Cloud
that must be achieved at the final rotation speed. A numerical
radiative properties were prescribed. Note that although the
calculation would give the correct initial shape for a given
revised cloud scheme is more detailed, it is not necessarily more
material. Advantages of the experiment are that the experiment
is a null one and one can adjust the shape to find the null, and
accurate than the less sophisticated scheme. Our work highlights
that only octupole-patterned deformations give rise to error
how different parameterization schemes can affect the sensitivity
of the climate to CO2.
signals as large as in Table 2. Also, the parameters I have chosen
(size, distance, tolerance and material) are nominal. There is
Two simulations, with CO₂ concentrations of 320 and
640 p.p.m., were performed for each version of the model. The
also the possibility that a refinement of this idea, or an incorpor-
ation of the mathematical idea into other experimental tech-
results shown here are averaged over five years after the simula-
niques (such as torsion balances) may prove effective. I note
tions reached equilibrium. On replacing the relative-humidity
cloud scheme⁸ (henceforth referred to as RH) with the model
that the experiment would not depend on any variation of the
fifth force with chemical composition, as do many of the recent
based on cloud water content9 (CW), the global annual average
experiments.
surface warming is reduced from 5.2K to 2.7 K. The largest
fractional reduction in the warming occurs in higher latitudes
(Fig. 1a) where the large decreases in total cloud cover with
Received 8 May; accepted 31 July 1989.
RH have been replaced by much smaller reductions or slight
1. Sinsky, J. A. Phys. Rev. 167, 1145-1151 (1968).
increases (Fig. 1b).
2. Hyrakawa. K. & Kuroda, K. Phys. Rev. D32, 342-346 (1985).
With RH, reductions in cloud cover are found throughout the
3. Stubbs, C. W. Nature 338, 301-302 (1989).
4. Stacey. F.D. et al. Rev. Mod. Phys. 59, 157-174 (1987).
depth of the mid-latitude troposphere (Fig. 2a), as in earlier
5. Duff, G. F. D. & Naylor, D. Differential Equations of Applied Mathematics 356 (Wiley, New York,
studies³. With CW, the main differences in response occur near
1966).
6. Ward. H. et al. Proc. Int. Symp. Expl. Gravitational Phys. (eds Michelson, P.F., Hu. E.-L. and Pizzella,
the freezing level (Fig. 2b) where, in the warmer doubled-CO₂
G.) 322-327 (World Scientific, Singapore, 1988).
7. Del Fabbro. R. et al. Phys. Lett. A124, 253-257 (1987).
90
8. Del Fabbro. R. et al. Phys. Lett. A132, 237-240 (1987).
a
9. Thorne, K. S. in 300 Years of Gravitation (eds Hawking, S. W. & Israel, W.), 330-458 (Cambridge
80
University Press. 1987).
70
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I thank G. Gibbons for discussions about the fifth force, J. Hough for discussions
60
about gravity-wave detectors and M. Hindmarsh for practical help.
Temperature (K)
50
40
CO2 and climate: a missing
30
20
feedback?
10
00
J. F. B. Mitchell, C. A. Senior & W. J. Ingram
06
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Latitude
Meteorological Office, London Road, Bracknell RG12 2SZ, UK
40
THE potential of changes in cloud properties to modulate climate
b
30
perturbations is well known¹,². Changes in cloud amount and cloud
20
height³, cloud radiative properties⁴⁶ and cloud condensation
10
nuclei⁷ (CCN) have all been recognized as possible sources of
00
climate feedbacks. Here we report results of simulations that
10
indicate that the changes of state of cloud water may provide a
trated in mid-latitudes and affects both the magnitude and distribu-
Fraction 2)
20
substantial negative feedback on climate. The feedback is concen-
30
40
tion of the climate change expected from increases in 'greenhouse'
50
gases. Improved measurements and parameterizations of cloud
60
:0
processes are needed to quantify this process.
The model is an 11-level atmospheric general-circulation
80
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-
20
30
40
5
60
70
80
90
model on a 5°x7.5° (latitude longitude) horizontal grid
Latitude
coupled to a 50-m mixed-layer ocean with a prescribed sea-
sonally and geographically varying oceanic heat convergence
FIG. 1 Zone-averaged equilibrium changes in a, surface temperature and b,
to represent heat advection by ocean currents⁸. In the standard
fractional cloud cover on doubling CO₂ (five-year means). Solid line, simulation
with CW. Dashed line, simulation with RH.
132
NATURE
VOL 341 14 SEPTEMBER 1989
LETTERS TO NATURE
second
simulation, ice cloud which is depleted rapidly by precipitation
however, suggesting that any radiative feedback from this type
cloud-
is replaced by water cloud which is depleted more slowly, so
of cloud would be small.
lance is
that cloud cover increases. This can be seen more clearly in the
The lower-cloud increases in the simulations arise from the
vapour,
height-latitude distribution of the changes in cloud liquid water
assumption that under similar conditions ice is removed more
ry-layer
and cloud ice (Fig. 3). Also shown are the mean 0 °C and 15 °C
efficiently from cloud than water. In real water clouds, relatively
ation at
isotherms in the control simulation. Because of the increases in
few droplets become large enough to fall out, as the available
ich is a
cloud, the enhanced absorption of solar radiation in mid-lati-
condensed water is spread over many cloud condensation nuclei
:r cloud
tudes found with RH is greatly reduced when using CW (Fig. 4).
(CCN)¹² Very few CCN act as ice nuclei¹³, so in ice clouds the
unction
One can define a climate sensitivity parameter \ (=QQ/AT)
cloud water is spread over fewer, larger particles, all of which
d in the
where AQ is the change in radiative heating at the tropopause
have appreciable fall speeds¹⁴. The microphysics of mixed-phase
on from
on doubling CO₂ and T is the equilibrium change in surface
clouds are complex and not fully understood. Although our
°C as a
temperature. Assuming¹⁰ = W \ is increased from
model does not explicitly represent them it effectively includes
articles
0.77 to 1.48 W K⁻¹ on replacing RH by CW. Thus changes
their most important aspect, the continual rapid conversion of
a fixed
in the phase of cloud water provide a strong negative feedback
water to ice¹⁵. A more complex representation would certainly
is, on
on climate, cancelling almost all the previous strong positive
change the pattern in Fig. 2 locally, but the vertically integrated
er even
feedback from cloud in RH¹¹. Although our model does not
response would probably depend primarily on the overall
Cloud
allow for this process in deep convective clouds, these have a
change from pure ice cloud to pure water cloud. Thus our
igh the
small areal coverage and a relatively high liquid-water content,
assumptions concerning the relative fall-out of ice and water
y more
are at least qualitatively realistic.
hlights
As 1 m may be a large value for ice fall speed, we have
sitivity
rerun experiment CW using a parameterization of fall speed in
01
a
terms of ice-water content based on observations (experiment
20 and
02
CWH). For typical simulated ice-water contents, this gives fall
el. The
speeds of 0.2 m s⁻¹ for high ice cloud and 0.7 m s⁻¹ for ice cloud
03
simula-
near the freezing level. Cloud changes (Fig. 2c) are qualitatively
2
midity
04
15
similar to Fig. 2b and the global warming is 3.2 K, only slightly
model
0
0.5
larger than in CW. The similarity between CW and CWH is to
iverage
σ
-1
be expected, given that the depletion rate of ice relative to water
?
06
0
largest
2
is large near the freezing level in both experiments.
titudes
0.7
2
It has recently been suggested that changes in cloud radiative
er with
properties may contribute an important feedback to climate⁴,⁵,¹⁶.
0.8
Γ slight
0
0
In a warmer climate, greater cloud water content would increase
0.9
0
cloud albedos (a negative feedback) and emittances (a positive
out the
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
80
feedback). A further experiment was carried out using the
earlier
Latitude
revised version of the model with an additional modification to
ur near
0.1
ed-CO2
b
0.2
a
0.1
0.3
0.2
0
-2
0.4
-1
0.3
0
0.5
04
15
b
0
σ
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.7
0
07
-1
-1
0.8
(3
0.8
0
0.9
0
3)
09
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
Latitude
Latitude
0.1
c
2
3
0.2
0
0
01
b
0.3
I
0.2
0
2
0.4
0
-2
03
0.5
0
0.4
15
b
σ
0.5
0.6
0
0
0
0.6
0.7
2
0
07
(w)
0.8
1
0.8
0.9
2
0.9
(10)
on
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
60
80
80
60
40
20
0
20
-40
-60
-80
Latitude
Latitude
FIG. 2 Height-latitude cross-section of equilibrium changes in cloud amount
FIG. 3 Height-latitude cross-section of equilibrium changes in cloud water
on doubling CO2. The height coordinate is σ (pressure/surface pressure).
in CW on doubling CO2. The height coordinate is σ. Areas of reduction are
and b.
Areas of reduction are stippled and the contours are every 1%. The dashed
stippled. The dashed lines are the 0 and -15 °C contours from the control
ulation
lines are the 0 and -15 °C contours from the control simulation. a, Simulation
simulation. a, Liquid-water content only. Contours every 4 kgkg⁻¹.
with RH. b, Simulation with CW. C, Simulation with CWH.
b, Ice-water content only. Contours every 4 x10⁻⁷ kgkg⁻¹
1989
NATURE VOL 341 14 SEPTEMBER 1989
133
LETTERS TO NATURE
20
5. Roeckner, E. Nature 335, 304 (1988).
18
6. Schlesinger, M. E. Nature 335, 303-304 (1988).
7. Charlson, R. J. et al. Nature 334, 418-420 (1988).
16
8. Mitchell, J.F. B. & Warrilow, D. A. Nature 330, 238-240 (1987).
9. Smith, R. N. B. Q. JI R. met. Soc. (in the press).
14
10. Dickinson, R. E. & Cicerone. R. J. Nature 319, 109-115 (1985).
11. Wilson, C. A. & Mitchell, J. F. B. J. geophys. Res. 92, 13,315-13,343 (1987).
12
12. Pruppacher, H. R. & Klett, J. D. Microphysics of Cloud and Precipitation. (Reidel, Dordrecht, 1978
13. Heymsfield, A. J. & Sabin, R. M. 1 atmos. Sci. 46, 2252-2264 (1989).
Solar flux (W m
10
14. Heymsfield, A. J. 1 atmos. Sci. 34, 367-381 (1977).
15. Mason, B. J. The Physics of Clouds (Clarendon, Oxford, 1957).
8
16. Somerville, R. C. J. & Remer, L. A. J. geophys. Res. 89, 9668-9672 (1984).
17. Liou, K.-N. & Wittman, G. D. J. atmos. Sci. 36, 1261-1273 (1979).
6
18. Stephens, G. L. J. atmos. Sci. 35, 2123-2132 (1978).
19. (1988). Somerville, R. C. J. & lacobellis, S. Am. Met. Soc. 7th Conf. Ocean-Atmos. Interaction 53-5.
4
20. Liou, K.-N. & Ou S.-C. Preprints of 10th Int. Cloud Phys. Conf. Vol. II, 118-120 (1988).
2
21. Schlesinger, M. E. & Mitchell, J. F. B. Rev. Geophys. 25, 760-798 (1987).
22. Hansen, J. E. et al. Geophysical Monographs Series Vol. 29, 130-163 (American Geophysica
Union, Washington, DC, 1984).
0
23. Jones, P. D. et al. Nature 338, 790 (1988).
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 70 80 -90
Latitude
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS. We would like to thank R. Smith who devised and wrote the cloud wate
scheme used.
FIG. 4 Zone-averaged equilibrium change in net solar flux at the top of the
atmosphere on doubling CO₂ (five-year mean). Solid line, simulation with
CW. Dashed line, simulation with RH.
Disequilibrium silicate mineral
allow the cloud radiative properties to depend on the cloud
textures: fractal and
water content (scheme CWRP). (Given the similarity between
CW and CWH, this experiment was carried out with the CW
non-fractal features
formulation only.) Analytical fits of the short-wave albedo and
transmittance as functions of cloud-water path and solar zenith
Anthony D. Fowler*, H. Eugene Stanley*
angle were made to a published scheme¹¹ based on observations
& Gérard Daccord
and theoretical considerations. The long-wave flux emittance
was given by (-кq)) where q is the condensed-water
* Ottawa-Carleton Geoscience Centre, University of Ottawa, Ottawa,
path and K = 0.13 for water clouds and 0.065 m² for
Ontario, Canada K1N 6N5
ice clouds¹⁸.
t Center for Polymer Studies and Department of Physics,
On doubling the CO₂ concentrations the global annual
Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts 02215, USA
average equilibrium surface temperature increased by 1.9 K with
+ Dowell Schlumberger, Z.I. Molina, BP 90, 42003 St Etienne, Cedex 1,
France
CWRP compared to 2.7 K with prescribed cloud radiative
properties (CW), indicating a further increase in 1 to
2.1 W K⁻¹. This negative feedback from changes in cloud
IGNEOUS rocks formed from lava flows of the Archaean era
radiative properties lies between the very strong negative feed-
(>2,700 million years ago) are often found to contain disequili-
back suggested by one-dimensional calculations and the
brium-textured crystals characterized by spherulitic, branching or
positive feedback found in a previous study with a low-resol-
dendritic morphologies that occur in layers near the flow surface.
ution general-circulation model (GCM)⁴⁻⁶ We note that all
Well-known examples are the plagioclase spherulites of basalts
existing numerical studies assume that the number of CCN
and the platy and branching spinnifex-textured olivines and
remains constant under climate change. Changes in CCN are a
pyroxenes of komatiites¹, Here we present evidence that, over a
further possible source of feedback⁷,²⁰
finite range of length scales, some disequilibrium textures are scale
The sensitivity of the climate to doubling the CO₂ concentra-
invariant. This observation implies that over this range of length
tions that we have found is substantially smaller than the 4-5 K
scales their random patterns can be quantitatively characterized
found in other recent studies¹⁰,²¹. A significant part of this
by a unique number, the fractal dimension³. We also demonstrate
reduction in sensitivity is due to the different cloud scheme. If
that some textures have a crossover from fractal to non-fractal
correct this will have two important consequences. First, the
behaviour. It is known that most disequilibrium crystals arise in
equilibrium warming expected from the estimated 2 Wm⁻²
part from rapid cooling and represent the case where the growth
increase in radiative heating at the tropopause since 1860 (ref. 9)
rates of the crystals/are large compare to the diffusion rates in
will be smaller. Second, the proportion of the equilibrium
the silicate melt We therefore formulate a quantitative model
reached will be greater, because the thermal response time of
for the growth that is based on a variant of diffusion-limited
the climate system is reduced if climate sensitivity is reduced²².
aggregation (DLA)5.
Based on calculations using a simple one-dimensional model
Figure 1 shows a section of small disequilibrium crystals, at
of the ocean, the expected warming to date, using the climate
different magnifications. These form close to the quench/glassy
sensitivity found when employing CW, is 0.6 K. This is close to
margin of some lava flows⁶, and their outline remains the same
the observed warming since the beginning of the century (0.5 K;
as the microscope objective power is increased. Similar remarks
ref. 23). The record of observations shows considerable variabil-
can be made about textures on other length scales, such as the
ity on interannual and interdecadal timescales, however, includ-
much larger branching pyroxene crystal of Fig. 2a.
ing a period of cooling during the 1950s and 1960s, so that it
The concepts and techniques of fractal geometry3 have proven
is not possible to attribute the 0.5 K rise unambiguously to the
useful in understanding other random morphologies, in part
effect of increases in trace gases.
because a fractal object is characterized quantitatively by a
number, the fractal dimension df, that relates the increase in
mass M/of the object to its characteristic length scale L, M ≈
Received 14 June; accepted 14 August 1989.
(ref. 7)
1. Manabe, S. & Wetherald. R. T. J. atmos. Sci. 24, 241-259 (1967).
To determine d{ we digitized photographs of the textures using
2. Schneider, S. H. J. atmos. Sci. 29, 1413-1422 (1972).
3. Wetherald, R. T. & Manabe. S. J. atmos. Sci. 45, 1397-1415 (1988).
a video camera with a grid of 65,536 pixels. First we randomly
4. Roeckner, E. et al. Nature 329, 138-140 (1987).
chose any pixel belonging to the digitized texture. About this
'local origin' we constructed a sequence of concentric shells of
134
NATURE
VOL 341
14 SEPTEMBER 1989
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 20, 1989
MEMORANDUM FOR JOHN SUNUNU
ASSISTANT TO THE Out FOR
CHIEF OF STAFF TO PRESIDENT
FROM:
D. ALLAN BROMLEY
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
SUBJECT:
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
Enclosed herewith is a memorandum for the President on this topic
in which I make the suggestion for a meeting of senior scientific
representatives that I discussed very briefly with you on
Tuesday.
Immediately after our discussion I met with the delegation from
the British Houses of Commons and of Lords. During the
discussion I floated the idea of this meeting and, at least in
this group, met with a very enthusiastic response.
I recognize fully that there may be many other factors that will
decide how best the President should follow up on what has come
to be considered, in many quarters, his promise to host a Summit
on the global environment.
My goals are a) to insure that the Summit, when it occurs, can
show concrete results and b) that either by design or
inadvertence it not be to closely focussed on global warming as
some would like it.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
December 1, 1989
Dear Bill:
Many thanks for your note of November 8 and your "Sixteen
Theses on the Greenhouse Effect." You quite correctly
assume that I am in the middle of the global warming
problem, having been asked by the President to chair the
Domestic Policy Council Working Group on that subject,
charged with developing the formal U.S. government policy on
the matter. As you are also quite aware, there has been a
wide divergence of opinion, and the task of pulling this
together into a coherent policy is anything but a simple
one.
Your input is particularly valuable, because I have asked
Mike Boskin and his folk in the Council of Economic Advisers
to take on the task of quantifying, in an economic sense,
the impact of postulated scenarios for global warming as the
basis for the development of some reasonable policies. In
parallel with that, I have also asked the Department of the
Interior to coordinate the collection of input from the
private industrial sector, a group that has substantial
experience, expertise and data in the area but which has
been remarkably absent from the discussion thus far, and I
have also asked the Justice Department, together with the
State Department, to take a look at the kind of framework
agreement that we might eventually be prepared to sign. My
impression has been that all too frequently in the past we
have tended to get shafted in international agreements
because we have not done adequate homework before the fact
and during the actual negotiations have frequently tended to
be nice guys, to our eventual cost. In parallel with these
activities, we are meeting with groups of scientists
actively working in the field, with groups of economists who
have been looking at the area, because there is an
impressive divergence of opinion within the economic
community and, finally, with groups of spokespersons for the
most visible environmental groups. My intent is that with
these activities proceeding in parallel with the United
Nations activities, under the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, we should be prepared by the latter part of
1990 to discuss the sort of quantitative schedules and
possible stabilization and reduction of greenhouse emissions
that an amazing fraction of the seventy nations represented
at the recent Noordwijk conference were prepared to commit
themselves to in the absence of any clear understanding of
either the technology required or the economic consequences
of their commitments.
As you well know from your own experience in Washington,
there are a great many things that one does not discover
prior to arriving on the scene, but at least I am learning
that one can be beaten about head and shoulders for all
manner of things beyond global warming, with technology
policy being a marvelous followup.
I am enclosing herewith for your possible interest a set of
conclusions that I jotted down on the plane on the way back
from the Noordwijk conference early in November that I have
subsequently passed on to the President.
Although the press has been making much of the fact that
Bill Reilly and I are in opposing camps on these global
warming questions, we in fact have been working rather
closely together and, as a good Class of '64 Yalie, I find
him to be a very able and persuasive colleague.
With all best wishes,
Sincerely yours,
I llan
D. Allan Bromley
Assistant to the President
for
Science and Technology
Enclosure
Professor William D. Nordhaus
Department of Economics
Yale University
P.O. Box 1972 Yale Station
New Haven, Connecticut 06520-1972
OF HEALTH& SECURITY HUMAN
THE SECRETARY OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20201
USA
OCT 16 1989
Mr. D. Allan Bromley
Assistant to the President for
Science and Technology
The White House
Washington, D.C.
Dear Mr. Bromley:
Thank you for your letter endorsing Dr. Bernadine Healy for the
position of Director, National Institutes of Health here in the
Department of Health and Human Services.
The need to attract highly-qualified individuals here in the
Department is great. Dr. Healy's resume is quite impressive.
Please be certain that she will be given careful and thorough
consideration as I review applications for this position.
Again, thank you for providing me with the name of a candidate
that you feel would be an asset to the Department.
With warm regards.
Sincerely,
Louis W.Aulliran
Louis W. Sullivan, M.D.
Secretary
"CORRESPONDENCE TRACKING"
TYPE:
Action Item
DOCUMENT NUMBER: 8920380
FROM:
WILLIAM D. NORDHAUS
YALE UNIVERSITY
TO:
BROMLEY
DATE OF
CORRESPONDENCE: 11/08/89
SUBJECT: ENCLOSING A COPY OF A SUMMARY DONE FOR THE COUNCIL
ON ECONOMIC ADVISORS FOR YOUR INFORMATION.
ASSIGNED TO: D. Allan Bromley
ACTION REQUIRED: ACKNOWLEDGE
SENDER'S DUE DATE:
OSTP DUE DATE:
12/04/89
DATE COMPLETED:
COPIES TO: Nancy Maynard
REMARKS:
DATE RECEIVED: 11/15/89
FILE: NEOB
Yale University
Department of Economics
Campus address:
P.O. Box 1972 Yale Station
28 Hillhouse Avenue
New Haven, Connecticut 06520-1972
Dr. D. Allan Bromley
President's Science Adviser
Executive Office Building
Washington, D. C.
November 8, 1989
Dear Allan:
You new duties undoubtedly are involving you in the hot
issue of global warming. In this regard, I thought you might
be interested in a summary that I recently prepared for your
colleagues in the Council of Economic Advisers.
I trust you are well. Things are temporarily calm here.
Sincerely yours,
Bair
William D. Nordhaus
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 20, 1989
MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT
sue
FROM:
D. ALLAN BROMLEY
SUBJECT:
HEAD OF STATE MEETING ON THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
I know that you are currently considering how best to follow-up
on your discussions at, and before, the Paris Economic Summit
regarding a Head-of-State meeting focused on the global
environment.
I recognize that you will necessarily weigh many factors in
reaching your decision but want, in this memorandum, to make a
few comments and a specific suggestion from my science and
technology vantage point.
First, I believe that it would be a mistake to plan any such
Head-of-State meeting too closely in time to the scheduled
February 1990, IPCC meeting to be held here in Washington because
the latter is rather focussed on global warming and this is only
a part, albeit a highly public part, of the more general global
environmental change question. Too close a coupling would, in my
opinion, give undue emphasis to the global warming problem to the
exclusion of others such as ocean pollution, biodiversity, and a
whole host of other topics.
Second, I would argue that it would be important that the
necessary preparatory work be done so that you would be in a
position at the Head-of-State meeting to sign, with your fellow
Heads of State, an agreement having very solid content.
To that end, I would propose - and have discussed very briefly
with Governor Sununu - the possibility that in, say, April 1990,
I host, here in Washington, a meeting of the Science Ministers or
their equivalent from the seven nations involved in the Economic
Summit in which we might try to agree upon a set of environmental
change issues of international importance (including global
warming, of course) and focus on the state of our current
scientific knowledge of the phenomena underlying them. Having
identified at least some of the most important gaps in such
knowledge, we could then at least attempt to evolve a coherent,
integrated plan, involving the scientific and technological
communities of these seven nations, to address these gaps.
If we were successful, then such a plan might provide an
appropriate environmental centerpiece upon which the Heads of
State could formally agree and to which they might be prepared to
commit their respective countries for action.
I make this suggestion, Mr. President, for the additional reason
that it would allow you to maintain the strong leadership role
that this country has earned and that you so effectively
demonstrated at Paris.
The possibility of including a broader spectrum of nations is one
that I have rejected, not because they do not have essential
contributions to make but rather to keep this initial discussion
within manageable bounds. To the extent that we are successful
initially we certainly would wish to spread our net rather early
to include much broader representation.
I would welcome your guidance and comments.