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Originally Processed With FOIA(s): FOIA Number: 2005-0336-F 2005-0336-F FOIA MARKER This is not a textual record. This is used as an administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential Library Staff. Record Group/Collection: George H.W. Bush Presidential Records Collection/Office of Origin: Science and Technology Policy, Office of (OSTP) Series: Bromley, D. Allan, Files Subseries: Global Climate Change Files OA/ID Number: 62052 Folder ID Number: 62052-005 Folder Title: Global Warming: Charts and Graphs [1989-90] Stack: Row: Section: Shelf: Position: 0 0 0 0 +0.5%/yr CO₂ +1%/yr CH, 4 a CF₂ Cl₂ (CFC 12) +5%/yr 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 5 Year 0.4 AT[°F] running mean 0.0 -0.4 Measured Mean Global -0.8 Annual Surface Temperature DECADE 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 5 Residence time, 1.2 yrs Acid Rain - - 12x10¹³ gm/yr Laki, 1793 Temperature Decrease, °C 1.0 .5 Krakatau, 1883 Tambora, 1815 Agung, 1963 0.1 .05 St Helens, 1980 10¹⁰ 10¹¹ 10¹² 10¹³ 10¹⁴ Sulphur, grams Bush Library Photocopy Preservation 5 Year 0.4 AT[°F] running mean 0.0 -0.4 Measured Mean Global -0.8 Annual Surface Temperature DECADE 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 after Hansen, 1988 1.0 Northern Hemisphere 0.5 °C 0.0 -0.5 Year 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 1.0 Southern Hemisphere 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 after Michaels, 1990; data from Wigley and Jones, East Anglia, UK Bush Library Photocopy Preservation 10 Residence time, 1.2 yrs Acid Rain - 12x10¹³ gm/yr 8 Laki, 1793 AMBORA 7 Acid in Greenland Ice Core 6 5 uequiv H+ /kg Temperature Decrease, °C 1.0 Krakatau, 1883 Tambora, 1815 Agung, 1963 4 0.1 3 St Helens, 1980 2 1 Sulphur, grams 0 01 1814 1815 1816 1817 1818 1819 10¹⁰ 1011 10¹² 10¹³ 10¹ 72 MEAN TEMPERATURE NEW HAVEN, CONNECTICUT 70 68 1816 66 64 62 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 60 9 .9 Pacific, 47-55°S Atlantic, 38-43°N .8 April 1985 .8 April 1985 .7 .7 Albedo 6 Albedo 6 .5 .5 4 .4 Longitude, °W Longitude, °W 75 65 55 45 35 25 15 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 Bush Library Photocopy Preservation 150 World Energy Nuclear Consumption Millions of Barrels per Day Hydro 100 [Oil Equivalent] Coal Gas 50 Oil Wood After Bookout, 1990 0 AT [°F] 350 1.0 NASA 340 O 330 -1.0 AT 320 East Anglia CO₂ [ppm] 310 CO₂ 300 After Hansen, 1988 290 Washington, 1989 Coal After Bookout, 1990 Wood Oil and Gas 60 Be 40 Share by 20 Fuel Type 0 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 Bush Library Photocopy Preservation grohal file Warming Document Originally Attached to Following Page Greenhouse Effect: April 1985 110. 150. 200. 250. 290. Net Effect of Llouds on tarth Apr il 1985 100 -75 -50 -25 0 25 Mauna Loa, Hawaii Monthly Average Carbon Dioxide Concentration 355 3.7 = 5.6 $ - 2.2+( ) +0.4 350 345 CO₂ 340 Concentration, (PPM) 335 330 325 320 315 mmmmmmmmmm 310 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 Year 350 345 Northern 340 340 PTB 71°N CO₂ 335 335 Hemisphere Conc. 330 (ppm) 325 350 320 345 STP 340 50°N 335 330 325 350 LJO 320 345 33°N 340 330 350 325 345 imm KUM 345 20°N 320 340 340 335 350 345 MLO 340 340 20°N 335 335 330 330 325 350 320 345 340 FAN/CHR 330 335 2°N-4°N 325 330 320 325 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 MITRE Year Southern 350 Hemisphere 345 FAN/CHR 340 340 2°N-4°N CO₂ 335 335 Conc. (ppm) 330 350 350 325 345 345 SAM 14°S 340 340 345 345 KER 340 340 29°S 345 NZD 340 41°S 335 335 330 350 325 345 340 SPO 335 335 90°S 330 330 325 325 320 320 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 Year Historical Variation in Carbon Dioxide Concentration 350 340 330 Atmospheric 320 CO₂ (ppmv) 310 300 290 280 270 1740 1790 1840 1890 1940 1990 Date Comparison of Glacial Age Variation in Atmospheric CO2 & CH₄ 0.7 Greenland Antarctica 275 0.6 CH₄ Concentration (ppmv) 250 0.5 225 CO2 Concentration (ppmv) 0.4 200 0.3 175 0 40 80 120 160 Age in Thousand Years Carbon Cycle (1988) 750 Atmosphere (Increase 3 yr-1) Deforestation 90 93 11,400 60 121 ~ 1.7? Clathrates 725 110 15 450 Surface Ocean Short-Lived Biota Long-Lived Biota (Inorganic 700, Organic 25) 45 15 55 40 36 5.6 60 Litter 5 3 40 39 5 <1 Surface Biota 4 1,400 180 Soil Peat 38,000 Deep Ocean (Inorganic 37,000, 5,000 Organic 1,000) Fossil Fuel Historical Variation of Atmospheric Methane 1.7 Greenland 1.5 Antarctica 1.3 CH₄ Concentration (ppmv) 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Age in Years Global Variation of Temperature 0.60 0.40 of 0.20 P Temperature 19 g Change 0.00 yo (C) a a - -0.20 P P i P 0.40 Q - 0.60 0.80 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 Date 1.0 .8 .6 .4 .2 0 -.2 -.4 -.6 -.8 -1.0 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 TEMPERATURE (oC) 1.25 I -0.75 -0.25 0.25 0.75 1.25 TIME (years) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1.25 0.75 TEMPERATURE (oC) 0.25 -0.25 -0.75 -1.25 150 170 190 210 230 250 270 290 TIME (years) GREENHOUSE WARMING: ECOLOGICAL ASPECTS Effects of Climate Change: Static Evaluations. Dynamic Evaluations. Research Problems: Scaling to Match GCM's Carbon Dioxide/Climate Interaction Scaling to Management Issues Spatial Effects Additional Processes Carbon Dioxide Emissions Per Capita, 1987 a ᵃexcludes deforestation The United States Government the the Letvie, and Lithuanie not Áretic Ocean Arctic Ocean Svalbard Greenland (NOR) (DEN.) NORWAY ICELAND SWEDEN FINLAND SOVIET UNION CANADA UNITED FOLAND F.R.C. ALD FRANCE NUMB MONGOLIA ROMANIA rueo. ITALY North North UNITED STATES SPAIN N.KOREA TURKEY KOREA Atlantic OTHERS SYRIA TUNISIA FOHANISTAN CHINA Puelfi LEBANON JAPAN BRAQ ISRAEL MOROCCO IRAN Ocean ALGERIA PAKISTAN Ocean LIBYA EGYPT SAUDI BAHRAIN R BAHAMAS ARABIA @GATAR Salare U.S.E. MEXICO DOMINICAN INDIA CUBA OMAN BURMA Keng MAURITANIA (U.K.) KITTS AND NEVES (PORT.) SELIZE AND JANANCA CAPE MALI ST. NIGER CHAD Y.A.R. VIETHAM VERDE BENEGAL I P.D.R.Y. BUATERIALA ST. VINCENT AND THE SUDAN YEMEN) - SALVADOR NICARAQUA THE PHILIPPINES PANAMA TOBAGO COSTA NIGERIA - VENEZUELA GUYANA PERMIRATED STATES LEORE IVORY ETHIOPIA LANKA MARSH COAST C.A.R. OF French Unlans LIBERIA CAMEROON SOMALIA COLOMBIA (FR.) MALAYSIA SAO TOME UGARDA MALDIVES If AND PRINCIPE KENYA ECUADOR BABON EQUATORIAL ZAIRE GUINEA INDONESIA PAPUA TANZANIA BOLOMON BHYCHELLES GUINEA HILANDS PERU BRAZIL TUVAL ANIOIA MALAW ZAMINA BOLIVIA MOZAMBIQUE MADAGASCAR VANUATU South Indian PUI MAINTITUS This Metric tons PARABUAY BOTSWANA Atlantic AUSTRALIA per capita o- Ocean SOUTH CHILE AFRICA LESOTHO 5.00 - Ocean ARGENTINA 3.00 4.99 NEW ZEALAND C.A.R. CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC 1.00 2.99 F.R.G. FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY Q.D.R. -GERMAN DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC P.D.R.Y. PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF YEMEN 0 - 0.99 U.A.E. -UNITED ARAB EMIRATES Y.A.R. -YEMEN ARAB REPUBLIC Bush Library Photocopy Preservation Unclassified 718353 (545038) 3-90 1-2 Atmosphere 740 5-6 110 50 60 70 80 22 35 Biota 550 Rivers 60 0.5 Warm Surface Cold Surface 600 300 Soil and Detritus Biota 9 Biota 18 1200 2 1 10 HZ 20 2 37 37 1 Fossil Fuel >5000 Intermediate and Deep Waters 34,000 3 Marine Sediments Organic Carbon > 10,000,000 Calcium Carbonate > 50,000,000 Reservoir Sizes in 10⁹ tonnes C Fluxes in 10⁹ tonnes C/yr 300 Global surface air temperature CO2 ppm +0.5 250 5 0 0.0 200 °C 5 °C 0.5 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 10 150 100 50 0 Thousand yr ago Present day +2 Phytoplankton °N 75 O polar front 70 Polar -2 65 +2 Zooplankton Standard deviation units O 60 -2 55 1950 1960 1970 1980 Plankton abundance 50 Sub- in the N E Atlantic polar Sub- 45 tropical k yr 200 100 0 20 10 °W Bush Library Photocopy Preservation N-S migration of polar and subpolar waters: benthic core data in vicinity of 20°W Yor 300 Global surface air temperature CO2 ppm STATE +0.5 250 +5 200 0 0.0 °C 5 °C 0.5 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 10 150 100 50 0 Thousand yr ago Present day +2 Phytoplankton °N 75 O polar front 70 Polar -2 65 +2 Standard deviation units o 60 -2 3 1950 1960 1970 1980 50 Plankton abundance SI b in the N E Atlantic of polar 300 45 kyr 200 100 0 20 10 °W N-S migration of polar and subpolar waters: benthic core data in vicinity of 20°W ! -700 009- -500 DEPTH (E-300 (m) -400 300 -200 -100 ! 0 150 150 250 250 350 350 pCO2 (µatm) 450 FLORIDA STRAITS 450 OCEANUS 205 550 550 650 650 750 750 Bush Library Preservation Photocopy TTo SURFACE (1-15M) LONGITUDE (DEG) LATITUDE (DEG) -55 -45 -35 -25 -5 -5 5 5 75 65 -65 55 45 35 25 15 -75 5 640 640 590 590 540 490 540 440 PCO2 (UATM) PCO2 (UATM) 490 390 440 390 340 75 65 55 -75 -55 -45 -35 -25 -b LATITUDE (DEG) 35 25 15 5 Figure 4. The partial pressure of CO2 gas in surface seawater expressed as a departure from atmospheric equilibrium. Units are parts per million in volume terms, expressed as microatmospheres. Negative values, or "holes" imply a CO2 flux from the atmosphere to the ocean, and "peaks" imply a CO2 flux from the ocean to the atmosphere. (Courtesy Dr. Peter Brewer, WHOI) °N Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 72 0000000 ********** 60 47 72 33 59 I O 47 15 34 30'W ........ Canada 20W UK 00000 FRG USA Netherlands National cruise transects for Bloom Study. (Courtesy of BOFS Planning Office, Plymouth, U.K.) Bush Library Photocopy Preservation ATLANTIS II (Leg 2&3) 2100 2100 2090 120 2090 110 100 2080 80 2080 TCO2 (µM/kg) Primary Productivity (mmol C/m2/day) 90 70 60 50 2070 40 2070 30 20 2060 10 2060 0 135 140 145 150 155 2050 2050 observed temperature 2040 temperature + air-sea flux 2040 2030 2030 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 150 155 JULIAN DAY Bush Library Photocopy Preservation JGOFS Equatorial Pacific Process Study National Cruise Plans - Transects 10°N - 10°S 8 18 173 3 4 10°N 5 4 3 3 4 3 6 3 5' 6 5 6 6 10°N 10°S $ $ 1 5 10°S 10 7 9/6 9/6 120° E 150° 180° 150° 120° 90° W Country (Agency/Institute) 1 Japan (JMA/WOCE -JGOFS) 6 U.S. (NOAA/JGOFS) 2 Japan (ORI/WOCE) 7 Australia (CSIRO) 3 Japan (ORI/JGOFS) 8 P.R.C. (NSFC, Academia Sinica) 4 Japan (STA/TOGA) 9 Noumea (ORSTOM) 5 U.S. (NSF/JGOFS) 10 International (ODP) 5' U.S. (NSF/IGAC) Bush Library Photoco, Preservation U.S. JGOFS: A Component of the U.S. Global Change Research Program U.S. JGOFS NEWS Volume 1, Number 4 April 1990 160° W 120° W 80°W 40°W JGOFS & WOCE 40°N Cooperate T TOGA Moorings TH Tropic Heat Moorings On Ocean CO2 Survey 20°N Carbon dioxide (CO,) lies at the heart of a class of fundamentally 9°N interesting ocean problems. As bicarbonate (HCO,-) it is a significant TH part of the "salt" of seawater; as solid T T 0° calcium carbonate (CaCO₃) it forms coral reefs, sea shells and the white cliffs of Dover, and as a gas it is exchanged between air and sea, fixed 15°S 20°S during photosynthesis and produced during organic matter decomposition. - Proposed US JGOFS Transect These natural cycles are vast. The amount of photosynthesis that takes Proposed NOAA Transects place in the upper ocean, for in- stance, is almost equal to that 40°S occurring on all the continents put U.S. JGOFS and NOAA researchers are coordinating plans for cruises in the equatorial together. Vast though these signals Pacific in 1991-92. The proposed U.S. JGOFS field program calls for process studies and may be, however, they are being en- flux measurements at sites along a transect at 140°W from 9°N to 15°S. NOAA scientists croached upon increasingly by the ac- are proposing shorter transects along 130°, 140° and 150°W to study conditions upstream and downstream of the JGOFS study sites. Certain JGOFS stations will coincide with tivities of man. moorings deployed by the TOGA and Tropic Heat programs. The broad concept is simple. Carbon dioxide, which is currently released into the atmosphere at a rate of about 5.5 billion tons per year Update On Planning For Equatorial Pacific Study from the burning of coal and oil, tends to be absorbed by the ocean. As the next major field program of be conducted along a transect at The reaction is a familiar one, the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study 140°W (see figure). The NOAA cruises (JGOFS) takes shape, the team analogous to the attack of carbonic will flank the JGOFS ones, putting a acid in rainfall on limestone. charged with organizing U.S. partici- box around the JGOFS transect, In this case, however, only CO2 gas pation in it has acquired a new Toggweiler said. exchange with alkaline seawater is member. R.J. Toggweiler, a National Along with GFDL colleague Jorge involved, and the rate of physical Oceanic and Atmospheric Admini- Sarmiento, Toggweiler will also be stration (NOAA) scientist at the mixing in the ocean sets the pace. host to an Equatorial Pacific Model- The result is that about 2.5 billion Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Labora- ing Workshop, to be held in Prince- tons of CO2 per year are absorbed by tory (GFDL) at Princeton University, ton in September. The meeting will the ocean and mixed into the abyss. is joining "Eq Pac" coordinators focus on biological and chemical Behind this simple scheme lies Margaret Leinen, University of Rhode interactions predicted by three- enormous complexity. What happens Island, and James Murray, University dimensional circulation models if the rate changes? What if the great of Washington, to help with U.S. incorporating explicit ecosystem biological cycle of carbon is per- planning for a process study to take components. One aim of the work- turbed? Do we just say this, or can we place in the equatorial Pacific Ocean shop is to make modeling results in 1991-92. measure it? Are the operating prin- available to guide the upcoming field Toggweiler will undertake the task ciples really understood? program. Two of the principal ocean observ- of coordinating projected NOAA For the immediate future, the activities in the Pacific with U.S. ing programs, the Joint Global Ocean planning team is focusing its efforts Flux Study (JGOFS) and the World JGOFS studies to be sponsored by the on an international Pacific workshop National Science Foundation. He and Ocean Circulation Experiment this month in Tokyo. Leinen is several other NOAA scientists are (WOCE), have forged links to tackle serving as chairman for the work- these problems under the sponsor- planning to submit a proposal for shop, which is bringing JGOFS par- measurements on NOAA cruises that ship in the U.S. of the National ticipants from a number of countries Science Foundation and the Depart- are designed to overlap NSF-spon- together in order to coordinate their ment of Energy (DOE). The National sored cruises in the planned study science plans and logistics. area. The JGOFS proposed studies will A draft science plan for U.S. JGOFS (Cont. on page 2) (Cont. on page 8) WOCE - (Cont. from page 1) Katsouros of the OSB produced Oceanic and Atmospheric Admini- solutions to various problems. stration's new ocean carbon program Standards for atmospheric measure- will provide important additional ca- ments, long established at the pability. laboratory of David Keeling of Scripps Early WOCE documents included Institution of Oceanography, are now plans for an ocean carbon dioxide ob- being transferred to the National serving program, and at a key Institute of Science and Technology meeting held at the National Acad- laboratory of William Dorko. For emy of Sciences in November 1986 ocean water, the panel awaits stan- P16 P19 Roger Revelle of the University of dards from Andrew Dickson, also of California at San Diego and Peter Scripps. Brewer of Woods Hole Oceanographic Measurement of CO2 in seawater by Institution addressed this issue. It gas extraction and coulometry, soon became clear in the discussion pioneered by Kenneth Johnson of the that followed that the technical University of Rhode Island, has now demands of such a survey and the been adopted as the primary tech- Figure 1: WOCE cruises P16 and P19, breadth of subject matter would nique and can yield the desired scheduled for late 1990 and early 1991, will strain the resources of WOCE and precision. New constants and include surveys of oceanic CO2 by JGOFS divert them from the program's equations by Catherine Goyet and investigators. primary goal of determining the Alain Poisson of the University of physical circulation of the ocean. Paris have helped to clear up confu- The organizers of WOCE generously sion. Passage to Antarctica, eastward across With these tools in hand, the panel the Weddell Sea and finally north- offered to make space available on their global survey cruises, should a examined WOCE plans. An inter- ward to Cape Town, South Africa, group of independent scientists wish agency agreement, initiated with the where the cruise ended March 8. to take advantage of the opportunity help of Frederick Koomanoff of DOE Chief scientist for the cruise was and continued by his successor Ari Wolfgang Roether. to carry out a CO2 survey. That Patrinos, produced an announcement Figure 1 shows P16 and P19, the meeting also witnessed the drafting of opportunity last summer for CO2 two lines to be surveyed on the next of a proposal for the Scientific Com- mittee on Oceanic Research (SCOR) surveys on the first of the WOCE WOCE cruises, beginning in Novem- to unify the loose international coali- Hydrographic Program (WHP) cruises. ber 1990 and continuing until tion of scientists working on biogeo- When the West German research February 1991. chemical problems into what is now vessel Meteor set out from Ushuaia, Five scientific groups have received JGOFS. Argentina, Jan. 23 on the first WOCE funding to take on various aspects of cruise, one of the investigators on the oceanic CO2 problem on these Although a number of U.S. federal agencies were interested in the board was David Chipman of Lamont cruises, both in the Pacific. Principal -Doherty Geological Observatory. He investigators are Ray Weiss, Scripps; oceanic carbon dioxide problem, no was the first to carry out a CO, project David Keeling, Scripps; Douglas focal point for discussion or resolu- tion of problems existed at that time. under the DOE Carbon Dioxide Wallace, Brookhaven National Lab- Recognizing this need, the Ocean Research program. oratories; Taro Takahashi, Lamont- The cruise track (WOCE-HP S1/A21) Doherty, and Peter Brewer, Woods Studies Board (OSB) of the National was south and east across the Drake Hole Oceanographic Institution. Academy of Sciences created a CO2 They will observe an ocean now panel that has worked hard to contaminated with fossil fuel CO2 advance the science necessary to down to a depth of about 750 meters, tackle the problem. The efforts of its in which carbonate ion (CO,") has member scientists have borne fruit. been significantly reduced (about The history of ocean CO, measure- 10%) from its abundance in surface ments is somewhat troubling. While waters in pre-industrial times. They individual measurements can be will seek to balance the classic made with apparent high precision, Redfield equation, which fundamen- the linkage of all the components tally characterizes the cycle of organic through commonly used equations matter in the ocean on which marine frequently runs into trouble. life depends. And they will be able to The signal sought is often small. observe the great exchanges of these The CO2 panel identified an accuracy living gases between air and sea. and precision of ± 1 µmole CO₂/kg as These fundamental data will necessary (about the rate of increase document the burden of carbon of CO2 invasion worldwide), yet carried by the oceans and, through measurements made by different linkage of models calibrated by the techniques on the GEOSECS program in the 1970's frequently differed by Among the researchers who conducted CO2 radio tracer carbon-14, will contribute measurements during last year's JGOFS North to predictions for a world rich in more than 15 times that amount. No Atlantic Bloom Experiment is David Chipman, greenhouse gases. This venture will acceptable chemical standard existed, and the equations used were confus- shown here working in the laboratory aboard form a fundamental part of the R/V Atlantis II. Chipman is a scientist at Lamont- JGOFS global survey; similar projects ing even to insiders. Doherty Geological Observatory. are getting underway in other Diligent staff work by Mary Hope (Photo by Craig Dickson) member nations of the JGOFS family. 2 Liaison Facilitates WOCE- Moored Instrument Observations Offer Time-Series JGOFS Interaction Insights For Studies Of Ocean Fluxes by Hugh D. Livingston by Tommy D. Dickey As the Joint Global Ocean Flux Significant changes in the physi- Study (JGOFS) and the World Ocean Naval Research, is to develop predic- cal, biological, chemical and optical Circulation Experiment (WOCE) have tive models of the temporal and properties of the upper ocean occur moved forward over the past few spatial variability of optical properties on time scales varying from a few years, it has become increasingly clear and bioluminescence in the open hours to weeks, seasons or years. that both programs stand to benefit ocean. During Biowatt studies in the In order to understand the proc- from coordination in planning and Sargasso Sea, collaborative groups esses that govern upper ocean implementation, in part because their from the University of Southern systems and their interactions with scientific achievements together are California (Tom Dickey) and from the atmosphere and the depths, we likely to add up to considerably more Lamont-Doherty Geological Observa- need to be able to collect data than those developed separately. tory (John Marra) collected samples frequently and over long periods of The practical considerations of ship from moored instruments (Fig. 1) time in order to capture potentially scheduling dictate that cruise plan- located at 34°N, 70°W every four significant short-term variations as ning be closely coordinated. Because minutes during three consecutive de- well as seasonal and interannual the data sets collected will be of ployment periods from Feb. 28 changes. mutual interest, data management through Nov. 23, 1987. Oceanographers have been systems need to be compatible. Their multi-variable moored sys- interested in seasonal changes in Recognizing the importance of tems (MVMS) instrument packages upper-ocean variables and proc- maintaining strong ties between were deployed at eight depths from esses such as primary production 10 meters to 160 meters. The in- WOCE and JGOFS, the planning for several decades. Much of our struments measured horizontal cur- offices of both programs are increas- present understanding of the ing their efforts to strengthen their rents, temperature, photosyntheti- seasonal cycle of primary produc- links and interactions at both cally available radiation (PAR), beam tion and its relationship to the flux national and international levels. attenuation coefficient, chlorophyll of carbon in the upper ocean is Coordination with other global fluorescence and dissolved oxygen. based on studies conducted by Time-series measurements of oceanic programs, such as the D.W. Menzel and John Ryther in International Global Atmospheric currents (daily vector averages) and the late 1950s and early 1960s. Chemistry Programme, is also the latter four variables (2h filtered) These researchers collected physi- developing in the same framework. are shown in Fig. 2 The bio-optical cal and biological data relevant to variables all exhibit diurnal variation Interactions between the two primary production on a bi-weekly programs on the international level throughout the euphotic layer as well basis at Hydrostation S near have been healthy. Peter Koltermann, as a large transient phytoplankton Bermuda from late 1957 through head of the WOCE International bloom on day 86. The bloom is also 1960. Project Office (IPO) in Wormley, The recent surge of interest in (Cont. on page 6) United Kingdom, noted that "on the understanding the flux of carbon in international level WOCE and JGOFS, the ocean and between the atmos- to my knowledge, have had a very phere and the ocean has stimulated Multi-variable Moored System good and intensive relationship. new approaches to the problem of (MVMS) Left Side View Front View JGOFS is the one global program sampling the upper ocean. Remote WOCE constantly talks to, not the sensing with satellite color imagery, least because Mike Fasham is here on for example, has become an impor- site, and Liz Tidmarsh is in another tant means of estimating ocean Par Sensor WOCE loop." Fasham is vice chair- pigments and thus primary produc- man of the JGOFS executive commit- tion. Orthogonal tee and architect of the JGOFS science Current Recent advances in moored Rotors plan, and Tidmarsh serves as execu- measurement systems are also tive secretary for both the interna- improving our ability to collect a Orthogonal tional JGOFS program and its parent Current wide range of information about the Rotors body, the Scientific Committee on upper ocean. Researchers from a Oceanic Research (SCOR). variety of disciplines are using With the establishment of the Thermistor instruments moored to buoys to Beam Transmissometer JGOFS scientific office in Kiel, West collect data on time scales previ- Fluorometer Germany, in November, international ously possible only for physical cooperation between JGOFS and oceanographic measurements. Pressure Housing Dissolved WOCE is moving on to a more formal Physical and bio-optical measure- Oxygen Sensor and continuous stage. The location of ments can be made from moored Conductivity the new office will allow Koltermann Sensor instruments every few minutes for Beam and JGOFS executive scientist Transmissometer periods up to six months, a sam- Geoffrey Evans to interact frequently. pling rate some 20,000 times that On the other side of the Atlantic, possible for Menzel and Ryther. interaction is also steadily increasing. One of the primary objectives of The international WOCE Hydro- the Biowatt Program, an interdiscipli- Fig. 1 Schematic diagrams of the Biowatt graphic Programme Office (WHP) is nary effort sponsored by the Office of multi-variable moored system. (Cont. on page 10) U.S. JGOFS Newsletter April 1990 3 Commentary: U.S. JGOFS Long-Range Science Plan by Peter G. Brewer With the completion of a long-range plan after equally fossil fuel invasion of the CO2 cycle. Planners are consid- long debate, U.S. participation in the Joint Global Ocean ering the possibility of an optics/pigments project under Flux Study takes an important step. How the strategy in the WOCE umbrella as well, although the logistics present this plan evolved, how it will crystallize into hard science, a problem. and how we can treat it as a living document are genu- An independent JGOFS survey of particle flux, trace inely interesting questions. gas, pigment, sedimentary and radioisotope signals will Scientists do not like to write plans, at least not long- take place when earlier phases of the global survey range ones. A plan signifies a commitment to a long-term program are secure. One draft for such a project envisions course of action. And the essence of science is following a program with about 20 sections, about one quarter of the path of discovery, which can lurch in unpredictable di- the WOCE hydrographic survey. rections, leaving plans and those trapped in them in The North Atlantic Bloom Experiment, a JGOFS pilot disarray. Those least fettered and most nimble seem least project conducted last year, demonstrated the feasibility of at risk. conducting process studies as part of the U.S. JGOFS Modern ocean programs on the large scale, however, plan. Recognizing that in key areas we do not know how to require resources beyond a nimble and well-trained mind. describe critical processes, differing climatological Ships, satellites, computers, funding and the development responses, for example, we look to process studies not of new skills all require long lead times and therefore the just for data but for understanding of the process being making of plans. investigated. Thus knowledge may be encapsulated in a U.S. JGOFS strategy evolved some time ago into an changed equation or couched in a different set of scientific experimental system with three major components: time- principles. series measurements, process studies and a global survey. The burden is large. Timing of field work can be criti- The addition of numerical modeling and data management cally important, and veterans of the bruising, draining and strategies completed the picture, and all aspects of the all-encompassing experience that constitutes a modern program will make use of ocean color data from satellites. expedition know that strikes, political coups, ship failures So well established are these themes that they are now or simple equipment losses at sea or in transit can unquestioned. But it was not always so, and the history of devastate such a program. The effort, moreover, lends debate within the community is worth reviewing. itself to questions along the lines of "What, exactly, did Shortly after the meeting that gave birth to GOFS, a you learn?", while a data-intensive survey rolls along more cacophony of opinion arose. In the minds of some, GOFS easily. was a sort of funding agency, to which one should write The U.S. JGOFS steering committee has chosen wisely requesting or demanding an experiment off a particular in focusing on these strategies, and all who have partici- state or coastal laboratory. Others saw a need to define pated in the debate that produced the long-range plan the project by the inclusion or exclusion of a given meas- have contributed to its formulation. Particular recognition urement skill. (Tell me, now, is Element X in or out?) Still must go to Otis Brown for shepherding the plan through its others insisted on a magisterial view: "You have to decide final stages with grace and skill. whether this will be fundamentally model- or data-driven; Execution of the plan will require the work of many. The they are quite different." In the end, reason won out. evolution of the time-series stations into virtual national U.S. JGOFS is firmly positioned within the U.S. Global observatories and the selection and development of Change Research Program (CES 1989), and the observa- candidate process studies in a world of rapidly increasing tion of change inevitably requires some commitment to knowledge will occupy the steering committee for years to measurement over time. The specifics of the variables to come. Important ties such as that with WOCE and the be measured, the duration and frequency of the observa- nascent relationship with International Global Atmospheric tions and the logistics required are all to be resolved in the Chemistry (IGAC) program must not be taken for granted free market of professional science. Yet the plan must see but carefully nurtured instead. The course of events so far to it that this happens, and it must frame the debate. shows that the community can rise to the challenge. A program that titled itself "global" at conception has The U.S. plan cannot stand alone, for JGOFS is a true something to live up to. The acquisition of data on the international program with lively and assertive contribu- scale of a trans-oceanic cruise is the most basic and tions from all sides. Those currently drafting the JGOFS traditional ocean science experience; one cannot imagine international plan have the advantage of having seen the field without it. And such a strategy readily scales up many national statements first. to a global survey. The GEOSECS program of the 1970's It is clear that the broad themes above will hold, but the provides an example. details will necessarily differ. One cannot, for example, Concerns about data utility force a hard look at the expect a direct Chinese contribution to a U.S. station off costs and benefits of such a survey, and the plan treats Bermuda. But common lessons learned can be transmit- this issue with caution. Acknowledging the value to ted through the JGOFS process and contribute to estab- JGOFS of the upcoming World Ocean Circulation Experi- lishing the needed ocean observing systems. ment global survey and the data it will provide, the plan The selection of process studies and the provision and includes a carbon dioxide measurement program to be coordination of national resources to attack them will be conducted on WOCE cruises. The aim is to balance the keenly contested issues in the JGOFS agenda. In this right-hand side of the Redfield equation and document the debate the U.S. plan plays a major and evolving role. 4 A New Iron Age, Or A Ferric Fantasy JGOFS-IGAC Cooperation by John H. Martin Planned On Ocean/ Atmosphere Interactions I first became interested in iron in the ocean at a U.S. JGOFS steering Recognizing their common interest committee meeting in San Francisco in understanding the biogeochemical during December 1986 at which exchanges between the atmosphere Bruce Frost of the University of and the ocean, a working group of Washington gave an excellent representatives of the Joint Global briefing on the abundance of unused Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS), the major nutrients in the offshore waters International Global Atmospheric surrounding Antarctica. Chemistry (IGAC) program and the Bruce outlined various hypotheses International Geosphere-Biosphere concerned with cold temperatures, Programme (IGBP) got together in low light levels, high grazing rates San Francisco last December to define and the like. After his presentation I overlapping areas of interest and look told him that I enjoyed his talk, but for ways to work together. that the real reason for the nonutili- Peter Liss from IGBP served as zation of major nutrients was Fe IRON POOR" chairman. Also attending were IGBP deficiency, after all. representatives Patrick Holligan and Bruce smiled, covered his ears and James McCarthy. JGOFS participants Illustration by E. Paul Oberlander said that it was too simple and he were Richard Gammon, Margaret didn't want to hear about it. Jim Leinen and John Martin. Robert McCarthy of Harvard University's showed that the present-day dust Charlson, Robert Duce and Joseph Museum of Comparative Zoology level was indeed very low. During the Prospero represented IGAC, and joined us and soon said that he didn't ice ages, however, it had been much David Hurd attended from the want to hear about iron either. higher. National Science Foundation. Naturally, this good-natured chal- My investigation led me onward to The meeting was held under the lenge made me all the more anxious the scenario created by talented aegis of IGBP's Coordinating Panel 2. to tell them about it. In order to do Princeton modelers Jorge Sarmiento Both JGOFS and IGAC have been so, I had to quit bluffing and see if and Robbie Toggweiler concerning designated as IGBP core programs. there really was any serious evidence atmospheric carbon dioxide, the Participants agreed that certain for oceanic Fe deficiency. biological pump and the use or important biogeochemical interac- After I returned to my office at Moss nonuse of major nutrients in the tions require interdisciplinary Landing Marine Laboratories, I Southern Ocean. investigation. JGOFS and IGAC are started to go through the clutter on Then another French/Soviet team of linked, the meeting report noted, by my desk. After some frantic digging, I glaciologists (Barnola et al.) published "the recognition that the living ocean found a top-quality Fe data set their CO2 data from the Vostok ice strongly modifies the trace gas produced by my MLML associate core. When the Vostok Fe data were composition of the atmosphere and Mike Gordon plus a reprint from Bob superimposed on the CO2 data, the that, for climate prediction, experi- Duce, the famed atmospheric chemist result was a striking inverse relation- mental and modeling studies of this from the University of Rhode Island. ship. Mutterings increased from the interaction are required, and further Bob estimated that fallout of iron- growing numbers of Fe skeptics. that atmospheric deposition can rich atmospheric dust provided about A desire to learn more about the affect ocean productivity." 50% of the Fe needed by open-ocean Antarctic led me to a review of the Among the scientific topics dis- phytoplankton. I plugged Mike expedition of the British research cussed was the issue of atmospheric Gordon's latest Fe numbers into Bob's vessel Discovery. Those were the days inputs to the oceans. Discussion formula, and the new estimate (1925-27) when persons were persons focused on three aspects of the suggested that 95%, not 50%, of the and the scientists were gone for three problem: the effect of clouds and phytoplankton's Fe requirement had years! ozone on the quantity and quality of to come from fallout from the Sir Alister Hardy F.R.S. describes this light at the ocean surface; the atmosphere. It also suggested that the monumental effort in writing, water deposition of continental dust as a deep ocean water in the Pacific, once color and fascinating detail in his source of iron for open ocean phyto- raised to the surface, was basically book Great Waters. The British plankton, and the supply of nutrients infertile because it didn't contain scientists went to the Antarctic to such as nitrogen and ammonium to enough iron to allow the phytoplank- study the relationship between the surface waters in the form of ton to make use of the available NO3. phytoplankton, krill and the whale aerosols. From my old days with Bob Duce in fishery. Ocean inputs to the atmosphere the IDOE (International Decade of While reading the book through my formed the next topic. Workshop Ocean Exploration) Pollutant Transfer iron-glazed eyes, I looked for evi- participants discussed the role of Program, I recalled that the dust dence in support of the Fe hypothesis emissions of dimethylsulfide, a input into the Antarctic was very low. and noted the mention of great byproduct of algal metabolism, in the Looking for a more recent Antarctic abundance of phytoplankton and atmospheric sulfur budget, the estimate, I came across the French/ krill, not to mention whales, on the formation of cloud condensation Soviet Vostok ice core work of De shallow, iron-rich South Georgia nuclei and the acid-base chemistry of Angelis and his colleagues, which whaling grounds. To my surprise and rainwater. Also discussed were a (Cont. on page 11) (Cont. on page 6) U.S. JGOFS Newsletter - April 1990 5 Moored - (Cont. from page 3) ation coefficient and dissolved oxygen, can be used with models to evident in the concurrent bio-optical generate time-series records of data (spectral radiance and irradi- biomass and/or primary production ance) obtained from bio-optical and thus to make estimates of moored systems by the University of organic carbon fluxes. California at Santa Barbara (Ray Concurrent physical, bio-optical Smith). This spring bloom coincided and chemical observations such as with a shoaling of the mixed-layer these are critical to data interpreta- depth from greater than 160 meters tion and modeling. Physical infor- to 30 meters within two days. mation, such as mixing time scales, The time-series records of beam stratification and advection, for attenuation coefficient, chlorophyll example, is vital to our understand- fluorescence and dissolved oxygen ing of biological, optical and geo- have also been sub-sampled at bi- chemical processes. weekly intervals in order to illus- Although we have advanced trate the difference in variability considerably in our ability to that can be inferred from high- sample marine ecosystems, there frequency sampling versus low- are several important variables we frequency sampling. It is apparent need to include in future high- that we cannot capture the high resolution measurements. Among degree of variability associated with them are dissolved carbon dioxide processes such as diurnal particle Biowalt researchers launch a multi-variable moored and plant nutrients, such as production and transient blooms system instrument package and buoy. nitrates, nitrites, phosphates and with sampling every two weeks. silicates. Although we can deter- It is now possible to carry out mine oxygen fluxes across the air- Observations from moorings, time-series analyses, such as sea interface using mooring mete- ships and satellites all have their spectra, coherence and the like, orological data and near-surface advantages and disadvantages in with variables including beam dissolved oxygen concentration sampling. Moored observations will transmission, chlorophyll fluores- measurements, we also need time- be of the greatest benefit to process cence and dissolved oxygen as well series measurements of carbon studies if they are used in conjunc- as currents and temperature. It is dioxide. An effective dissolved CO2 tion with shipboard measurements important to note that many of the sensor will make such measure- that are as yet beyond the capabil- observations described here, such ments possible. ity of moored instrumentation as PAR, fluorescence, beam attenu- technology. Moored observations will also enhance greatly the Currents usefulness of remote sensing observations of ocean color. Our 100 ability to monitor changes over the -100 long term and predict future 0.18 PAR changes in global carbon fluxes will benefit from the acquisition of data from each of these sampling meth- o ods. Beam Attenuation Coeff. 0.63 0.42 JGOFS-IGAC - (Cont. from page 5) Fluorescence 1.2 variety of other biogenic gases and surface ocean abiotic reactions. Those attending the workshop O agreed that better understanding of Dissolved Oxygen feedback processes is essential to 240 developing the ability to predict environmental changes. They 204 Y concluded that strong links between 60 70 80 90 100 IIO 120 130 Mar.1 April 1 May1 JGOFS and the IGAC program are JULIAN DAY 1987 needed to unravel the relationships between biological and chemical processes. Fig. 2 Time series of daily averaged vector currents (in cm/sec) and two-hour filtered PAR (in X1021 The workshop report called for quanta/m2/sec), beam attenuation coefficient (in 1/m), chlorophyll fluorescence (in µg chl-a/1) and establishment of formal relationships dissolved oxygen (in µM) taken from the 20 MVMS during the first deployment of the Biowatt mooring. between JGOFS and IGAC steering Currents were very low as the springtime stratification (not shown) began on JD 86 (mixed layer shoaling from greater than 160m to about 30m). A major transient springtime bloom shows in the beam committees, joint planning and attenuation coefficient and chlorophyll fluorescence time series. Bi-weekly sub-sampled data are exchange of working group members indicated with circles connected by straight lines. The undersampling problem of previous data sets and the development of new joint is apparent. studies stressing integration and overlap between the two programs. 6 SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE ON OCEANIC RESEARCH JG FS JOINT GLOBAL OCEAN FLUX STUDY International News Canadian Scientist Takes Up Post As JGOFS Executive by Margaret C. Bowles Responsibility for administration of questions of population density and funds, development of budgets and catch distributions. proposals, JGOFS publications and liai- He expects to spend roughly half his son with the such bodies as the Scien- time in Kiel attending to administra- tific Committee on Oceanic Research tive duties and the other half on JGOFS- (SCOR) will remain with JGOFS execu- related research. His own work should tive secretary Elizabeth Tidmarsh in the benefit, he noted, by his stay at the SCOR office at Dalhousie University, Institut für Meereskunde and a chance Halifax, Nova Scotia. The two offices to interact regularly with a larger group will collaborate on the promotion of of colleagues. "I'm a little isolated in St. the program and staff support for the John's," he said "I need to be kept JGOFS committee. honest." A mathematician by training, Evans As for his role as JGOFS executive has participated in modeling projects scientist, "it's a chance to mess up that are linked to the North Atlantic something really important," Evans Geoffrey T. Evans Bloom Experiment and to future JGOFS proffered with a chuckle. "I would like field programs. A member of the SCOR to make models and ideas about model- With the appointment of an execu- working group on JGOFS modeling, he ing a part of JGOFS projects at every tive scientist for its newly established has worked with a group at Princeton's step," he added. "Model early and of- international planning office at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Labora- ten." Institut für Meereskunde at Kiel Uni- tory headed by Jorge Sarmiento and A member in good standing of the versity in West Germany, the Joint with other American and British col- Newfoundland Symphony Orchestra's Global Ocean Flux Study has acquired a leagues on developing a three-dimen- viola section, Evans hopes to find a manager for the flow of ideas and infor- sional plankton model of the North group to play with in Kiel. Playing viola mation among its constituent parts. Atlantic that links biological processes in a community orchestra has enhanced Directing the traffic will be Canadian and ocean circulation. They hope that his perspective on the efforts of inter- scientist Geoffrey T. Evans, who packed this model will be of use in the forth- disciplinary groups, he noted. up both his mathematical models and coming process studies in the Pacific as He and his wife, Marjorie, are looking his viola and moved to Kiel in mid well, Evans said. forward to the challenges and opportu- February. On loan from the Science He himself is working on restricted nities ahead. "It's definitely an adven- Branch of the Department of Fisheries versions of this model, such as one ture," Evans said. "I'll be making it up as and Oceans in St. John's, Newfound- might use for an isolated water column. I go along." land, Evans will be fully supported by A question that interests him is whether the Canadian government during his it is possible to make a food-chain model two years in Kiel. that allows for differences in the way How does he envision his new job? various kinds of phytoplankton inter- SCOR To Convene "JGOFS has all sorts of countries, objec- act with their environment. tives and players. It's the executive sci- "Is it possible to make a model with Planning Meeting On entist's job to make sure ideas flow diatoms and coccolithophores and so Resource Coordination For smoothly amongst them. That's what on and keep them all around? It's really I'm aiming for," he noted. "I'll be keep- important for the aims of JGOFS. These JGOFS ing track of things, helping the steering different types take up carbon in differ- The Scientific Committee on Oceanic committee draft agendas and passing ent ways. After you have a model that Research (SCOR) has announced plans things on to those who are interested.' can handle keeping all these species to convene a meeting in Paris during The new executive scientist is also around, you can ask questions about May for chairmen of the national JGOFS charged with providing liaison between the relative abundance of these species committees and senior representatives JGOFS and other international research in a geographic location and what their of various funding agencies. The pur- programs, such as the International distribution means for carbon uptake," pose is to discuss the establishment of Geosphere-Biosphere Program, the he said. mechanisms for facilitating interna- World Ocean Circulation Experiment Evans has also served as an associate tional coordination of resources for or the International Global Atmospheric editor for the Canadian Journal of Fish- future JGOFS field programs. Chemistry Programme, in addition to eries and Aquatic Sciences for the last In a letter to prospective participants collecting information on national two years and has contributed his in the planning meeting, SCOR Presi- activities and science plans within modeling and quantitative skills to fish- dent J.-O. Stromberg noted the success- JGOFS. eries problems in Canada, including ful international collaboration demon- (Cont. on page 9) U.S. JGOFS Newsletter April 1990 7 JGOFS News/Federal Agency News Soviet Workshop Held On Ocean Fluxes & Ecology Among the recent activities of the 00111000 The Newsletter of Chinese Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Soviet National Committee for JGOFS was a workshop on global fluxes and STATE Flux CQ ecology in the oceans, held in the Caucasian city of Nalchik last Decem- Vol. 1 No. Apr. 1989 ber. Leader of the meeting was Prof. Alexander P. Lisitzyn, chairman of the Soviet JGOFS committee. The national JGOFS program of the Peoples' Republic of China has launched its own newsletter. The The workshop was organized by sev- first issue, in April 1989, introduced its readers to JGOFS history and planning, relationships with other eral of the institutes of the USSR Acad- global programs such as WOCE, IGBP and IGAC and the establishment and activities of the PRC's national committee. emy of Sciences. Among the seven for- eign scientists participating was JGOFS in these areas: climate diagnostics and mittee identified measurements: committee member Klaus Kremling of data base development; modeling; This category includes measure- the Federal Republic of Germany. Rep- global hydrological cycle; trace gas ments that the committee has iden- resentatives from some 14 Soviet re- studies, and ocean observations, circu- tified as essential to this process search institutions and organizations lation and biogeochemical cycling. study. They will include the core took part. More information is available from program measurements outlined in Topics of papers read at the work- Eileen Shea, executive secretary for the the December 1987 GOFS Overview shop included particle flux, primary Climate and Global Change Program, document. Competitive proposals productivity, fate of organic and inor- or David Goodrich, program manager to make all or some of these meas- ganic carbon and the geochemistry of for Ocean Circulation Studies. Address urements are expected to result suspension in both the open ocean and phone number for both: NOAA from the submission process. The and the inner seas. Geochemical and Office of Climatic and Atmospheric Re- technology should, at minimum, biochemical processes in the regions of search, 6010 Executive Blvd., Rm. 825, meet standards developed during oceanic hydrothemal vents were dis- Rockville, MD, 20852, 301-443-8415. the 1989 North Atlantic Bloom Ex- cussed. Participants also focused their periment. attention on the impact of human ac- 3. PI identified measurements: tivity on the marine environment and Update (Cont. from page 1) These fall outside the above catego- atmosphere. ries and are such as will be deemed At the end of the workshop, the So- studies in the equatorial Pacific, useful after review. They could viet scientists presented a preliminary prepared by Murray and Leinen, was include, for example, DOC/DON, draft of their national program for endorsed by the U.S. JGOFS Steering other pigments, floating traps, trace JGOFS. The final plan was presented at Committee at its meeting in January. metals or radioisotopes. These will the recently concluded JGOFS Science Copies are available from the U.S. also be competitive proposals sub- Committee meeting in Kiel. JGOFS Planning Office at Woods Hole mitted for review. Oceanographic Institution. Follow- Proposals submitted could cover ing the release of the plan, NSF issued NOAA Issues items under 2 and 3 within a single a preliminary announcement of proposal. An HPLC proposal, for Announcement For Climate opportunity calling for proposals. example, could also cover basic chlo- In order to address a number of rophyll. A review panel will match & Global Change Program questions that have arisen with re- proposals with needs and recommend The National Oceanic and Atmos- gard to the structure and process of the preferred set of funding actions, pheric Administration (NOAA) has an- proposal submission, the planning taking into account such factors as nounced FY 1990 priorities, funding office has circulated an update professional skills, completeness and levels and deadlines for its Climate and designed to provide further informa- cost. Global Change Program, begun in FY tion on these matters. More informa- The planning office is responsible 1989. The long-term objective of the tion will be available following the for making sure that NSF receives at program is to develop reliable predic- Tokyo meeting. least one basic proposal as outlined tions of global climate change and asso- Proposals should follow these above. To determine that the ciated regional implications on time guidelines: minimum set of NSF/SC identified scales ranging from seasons to centu- 1. The U.S. JGOFS Steering Com- measurements are covered in the ries. mittee recommends an open sub- suite of proposals submitted, the Total resources available for extramu- mission of logistics proposals cov- planning office requests copies of all ral projects in FY 1990 will be roughly ering, at minimum, ship time, submitted proposals. $3.8 million, $0.4 million of which will routine water sampling, hydrogra- In addition, following the advice of go to support a postdoctoral program phy (T, S, O2 and nutrients, includ- the U.S. JGOFS Steering and Executive in climate modeling and $1.2 million ing NH4) and communications and committees, the planning office will of which is for projects begun in FY logistics support. Additional meas- prepare an overview for the NSF 1989. Roughly $2.2 million is available urements and operations may be special review panel that will make to outside investigators for new proj- added to the list for this proposal final funding recommendations to ects. after the Tokyo meeting. NSF will NSF. Proposers are free to decide Deadline for proposals is May 1. The entertain more than one such whether they wish to honor this agency plans to entertain and give pri- proposal. request for proposal copies. It is not ority attention to individual proposals 2. NSF/U.S. JGOFS Steering Com- mandatory that they do so. 8 Workshop Participants Discuss Relationship Between Marine Productivity and Oceanic CO2 Uptake by Hugh W. Ducklow Dugdale (USC), Nathan Tolbert (Chi- Although some discussion centered cago), Charles Yentsch (Bigelow) and on biotechnological or other means Marlon Lewis (NASA). by which the phytoplankton them- The central focus of the workshop selves could be made more produc- was on the efficiency of operation of tive, workshop participants devoted the "biological pump." The term refers most of their attention to the iron to a group of biogeochemical and limitation hypothesis recently revived physical processes that fix organic by John Martin. He has calculated matter as new production and export that annual iron fertilization of the (or pump) it from the surface into the Southern Ocean could result in deep sea, primarily in the form of significant increases in new produc- sinking particles. Although most tion and carbon export. Sarmiento experts do not think that it plays a calculated that complete NO₃ net role in sequestering fossil fuel in drawdown could possibly decrease the contemporary (and hypothetical) the current rate of atmospheric CO2 steady-state ocean, many recognize WHOI photographer Craig Dickson captured this accumulation by about 50% but the potential capacity of these noted that fossil fuel additions are picture of Hugh Ducklow during last year's North Atlantic Bloom Experiment as he was preparing to mechanisms to respond to climate still expected to rise into the next launch an XBT from the deck of R/V Atlantis II. change and alter the ocean-atmos- century. Ducklow served as chief scientist during the third phere CO2 balance dramatically. The workshop concluded with the leg of the program. In the vast expanses of the finding that "it is conceptually Equatorial and Southern oceans feasible to slow the increase in where nitrate, the principal nutrient A group of oceanographers and atmospheric CO2 levels through limiting new production, is never biologists met last December at the enhanced new primary production in depleted, the biological pump is National Research Council's head- the oceans " and recommended a particularly inefficient. The workshop quarters in Washington, D.C., to pilot study to explore further the considered means by which its consider the scientific feasibility of technical and scientific feasibility of efficiency could be raised, increasing intervening in the oceanic carbon iron fertilization to enhance the new production and deposition of cycle to enhance the biological sequestration of carbon dioxide via carbon in the deep ocean, away from uptake of carbon dioxide by stimulat- the biological pump. Such a study is the atmosphere for centuries to mil- ing marine photosynthesis. described in the forthcoming U.S. lennia. Most experts agree that global JGOFS Long-Range Plan. temperatures will rise over the next century in response to the accumula- SCOR - (Cont. from page 7) tion of greenhouse gases, including CO2, in the atmosphere. They generally agree as well that the major strated in the 1989 North Atlantic Bloom provide the wherewithall. global sink for the atmospheric CO2 is Experiment. He added, however, that "We already have interagency coordi- the oceanic carbon cycle, the primary this study arose in part from the "fortui- nation at the national level, and we focus of JGOFS research. But the tous convergence" of national plans for need it at the international level," she mechanisms of oceanic CO2 uptake work in the North Atlantic that pre- added. and their relative importance remain dated the organization of JGOFS. Robert Corell of the U.S. National the subject of vigorous debate, as do "The development of plans for fur- Science Foundation will serve as chair- the policies we should implement to ther field components of JGOFS require man for the meeting, to be held at the reduce the effects of global warming that SCOR and its Committee for JGOFS headquarters of the International Coun- and the atmospheric carbon dioxide develop a mechanism for the provision cil of Scientific Unions (ICSU) in Paris, burden and coordination of the national re- May 22-23. The meeting is designed to The workshop was convened jointly sources necessary for undertaking such provide agency representatives with in- by Oscar Zaborsky, chairman of the a major international experiment. At formation on JGOFS needs as well as NRC's Board on Biology, and Adam present no organizal structure exists for agreement on a mechanism for coordi- Heller, professor of engineering at the discussion of these concerns," he nating resources. University of Texas, Austin. Chair- pointed out. man of the meeting was Richard "The aim is to bring the scientists Barber of the Monterey Bay Aquarium together with the government people Bloom Symposium Planned Research Institute (MBARI). Those to talk about what we are going to need attending included U.S. JGOFS and how to develop a structure so that An international conference on the JGOFS steering committee members Hugh countries can contribute resources," North Atlantic Bloom Experiment will be held Nov. 26 to 28 at the National Ducklow (Univ. Md.), John Martin JGOFS executive secretary Elizabeth Academy of Sciences in Washington, D.C. (Moss Landing) and James Yoder Tidmarsh said. "We need to talk about More information will be forthcoming as (URI) as well as Jorge Sarmiento the schedules for the process studies or the planning for the symposium proceeds. (Princeton), Dale Kiefer and Richard the data centers with those able to U.S. JGOFS Newsletter April 1990 9 U.S. JGOFS Projects And Investigators: A Partial List Abstracts for all projects funded as of Southern Mississippi; Spring Bloom in the Temperate North part of the U.S. Joint Global Ocean "Ocean-Basin Scale Modeling of Atlantic Ocean: Magnitude and Flux Study are on file and available Plankton Dynamics in the North Control Mechanisms," Christopher from the U.S. JGOFS Planning Office, Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific," Garside, Bigelow Laboratory for Woods Hole Oceanographic Institu- Joseph Wroblewski, Memorial Ocean Sciences; tion, Woods Hole, MA, 02543. Some University of Newfoundland; "Bottom Tethered Sediment Trap of the current proposals, principal Array Experiment, GOFS Level 1," investigators and their institutions North Atlantic Bloom Study Susumu Honjo, WHOI; are listed below. The June newsletter "Reactive Radionuclides in the will contain the rest of them. "Primary Production Measurements Eastern North Atlantic, Joint Global for the 20-West Program," John Marra U.S JGOFS Planning Office Ocean Flux Study," Michael Bacon, and Christopher Langdon, Lamont- "Planning the Global Ocean Flux Ken Buesseler and Hugh Livingston, Doherty; Program," Peter Brewer, Woods Hole WHOI; J. Kirk Cochran, State Univer- "REU: GOFS North Atlantic Bloom: Oceanographic Institution. sity of New York at Stonybrook; Level 1 DOC/DON, POC/PON Long Lead Time "The Oxygen Balance during the Studies," John Martin, Moss Landing; Spring Bloom in the North Atlantic "Photosynthesis and Calcification Ocean," Michael Bender, University "Development of a Shipboard by Blooms of the Coccolithophore of Rhode Island; Digital (CCD) Image Acquisition Emiliana huxleyi in the Gulf of System for Characterizing Pico- and "Quality Assurance Procedures for Maine," William Balch, University of Nanoplankton Populations by the Analysis of Photosynthetic Pig- Miami; Patrick Holligan, Bigelow Fluorescence Microscopy," Michael ments," Robert Bidigare and Mahlon Laboratory for Ocean Sciences; Sieracki, Virginia Institute of Marine Kennicutt, Texas A&M University; Sciences; "Data Management for the Global "Carbon Dioxide Measurements on Ocean Flux Study," James Bishop, "CTD/Hydrographic Support for the the Global Ocean Flux Pilot Study," Lamont-Doherty Geological Observa- GOFS North Atlantic Spring Bloom Peter Brewer, WHOI; tory; Glenn Flierl, Massachusetts Experiment," James Swift, Scripps Institute of Technology; David "RUI: 20 West: The Northeast Institution of Oceanography; Glover, WHOI; Atlantic Spring Bloom Experiment "Investigation of the CO2 System Bio-Optical Profiling," William "Surface Ocean Oxygen Fluxes," during the 1989 GOFS Expedition in Broenkow, Moss Landing Marine Steven Emerson and Paul Quay, the North Atlantic," Taro Takahashi, Laboratories; University of Washington; Lamont-Doherty; "Biogenic Particles, Microbial "The Hydromechanics of Sediment "The Impact of Protozoan Zooplank- Production and DOM Dynamics in Traps in the Oceanic Environment: ton on the Structure, Composition the North Atlantic Spring Bloom," Key to Accurate Particle Flux Meas- and Fate of the North Atlantic Spring Hugh Ducklow, Horn Point Environ- urements," Giselher Gust, Peter Betzer Bloom," Peter Verity, Skidaway mental Laboratories, University of and Robert Byrne, University of South Institute of Oceanography; Michael Maryland; Florida Marine Sciences Institute; Sieraki, VIMS, and Diane Stoecker, "Fluxes of Dissolved Inorganic WHOI. "A High Resolution Time-Series Nitrogen (DIN) and Dissolved Particle Interceptor Trap," George Organic Matter (DOM) during the Knauer and Vernon Asper, University Liaison (Cont. from page 3) located in the same building at coordination of U.S. WOCE compo- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institu- nents. tion as the U.S. JGOFS Planning Under the sponsorship of the U.S. JGOFS News Office. The proximity of the two National Science Foundation, a series A Publication of the U.S. JGOFS Steering Committee offices facilitates communication on of formal meetings on U.S. JGOFS/ Editor: Margaret C. Bowles JGOFS participation on WHP Global WOCE interactions began with a Designer: Jeannine M. Pires Survey cruises and on long-term ship session at The Oceanography Society U.S. JGOFS News reports on U.S. contributions to the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS) of the scheduling. meeting in Monterey last August. The Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR), JGOFS planning office executive next meeting was held in Washing- a permanent committee of the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU). It is published scientist Hugh Livingston will also be ton, D.C., on April 2. quarterly on behalf of the U.S. Steering Committee providing liaison with the U.S.WOCE Topics discussed included JGOFS for JGOFS. We welcome your comments and contributions for publication. Office in College Station, Texas. This participation in WHP cruises, data To obtain a free subscription, write to: office has overall responsibility for management, modeling, carbon-14 Anne S. Edwards U.S. participation in the WOCE pro- analyses at the Accelerator Mass Spec- U.S. JGOFS Planning Office Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution gram, including coordination with trometer facility at Woods Hole and Woods Hole MA 02543 U.S.A. U.S. JGOFS, and for international interprogram planning. (508) 548-1400, Ext. 2834 10 Iron Age - (cont. from page 5) mention all the extra krill and what will happen on scales ranging delight, Hardy mentions Fe on page whales we can produce). from single cells to ecosystems. 489. "The greater richness of the neritic areas remains inexplicable 3. This is a typical American It isn't too hard to imagine another quick fix. Instead of taking the hot summer. People are rioting in unless we assume that minute quantities of iron derived from hard road of reducing CO2 emis- New York; the smog level is down to the land, exert a strongly favorable sions, we will scatter some Fe one foot in L.A.; the corn is wilting in Iowa. In answer to the cries of "Do influence on diatom growth." around and in the process ruin the Antarctic environment. something about the greenhouse!" About 10 years before I was born, someone suggests spraying some Fe these scientists were already talking Meanwhile a FAX is rolling in from around in the Antarctic. about Fe deficency limiting phyto- R/V Polar Duke in the Ross Sea. Steve And as the planes took off, circled plankton growth in the Antarctic. Fitzwater and Mike Gordon, highly the field and headed south, someone Another avenue led to Baron Justin skilled MLML analysts who are able was heard to say von Liebig's law of the minimum. to collect water without adding Regardless of what we think about The father of modern organic chemis- extraneous Fe, report the results of an iron and its potential for good or evil, try and agricultural chemistry as well, experiment at 72°30'S, performed we have to learn more about what it von Liebig was the first to realize that under ambient light (Jan. 26 to Feb 6) does on the cellular level. And we the growth of a plant would stop and temperature conditions (O°C). have to have a good idea about what when its minimum requirement for "John," the message began, "the will happen to entire ecosystems if an essential element or compound addition of minute amounts of Fe massive fertilization is attempted. was not met. caused the phytoplankton to take up We can learn much from experi- Iron in the oceans appears to offer five times more nitrate than did the ments on the appropriate scale, tens an example of his law. In agricultural phytoplankton in the controls to hundreds of kilometers, in which terms, it looks as though the addition without Fe. What was the score of the conditions are carefully managed and of about a half an ounce of Fe per superbowl?" controlled. We can find out which acre might produce a Southern Another step has been species will thrive at the expense of Ocean phytoplankton taken towards proving the which others and decide whether the bloom. A few back-of- case for iron. But this is effects are good, bad or indifferent. the-envelope calcula- just the southern edge of The collective talents of the JGOFS tions suggest that GERITOY a 2,000-mile-wide band of community could make a real contri- massive fertilization of major nutrient-rich water that bution to this task. the ocean is feasible extends north to the roaring since so little Fe is required. forties with their 70-knot winds and I first said this more or less fa- 40-foot seas. It Must Be Right; cetiously at a Journal Club lecture So there I was having fun with a at Woods Hole Oceanographic Insti- It's In The Encyclopedia "Geritol fix for the ocean," answering tution in July 1988. I estimated that, letters from Dennis Leblanc (Appro- You can look JGOFS up in the with 300,000 tons of Fe, the Southern visionnement de Navires) of Sept-Iles, Encyclopedia Brittanica as of 1990. Ocean phytoplankton could bloom Quebec. D. James Baker of the Joint Oceano- and remove two billion tons of "Dear Dennis: I am glad you have graphic Institutions, Inc., has carbon dioxide. 300,000 tons of high-grade (66%) Fe included a description of the North Putting on my best Dr. Strangelove ore and a ship. I can't tell you where Atlantic Bloom Experiment, JGOFS's accent, I suggested that with half a to deliver it yet, but stay in touch first major field study, in his article ship load of Fe (our largest ships, when people start yelling at me about "Oceanography 1989,"a review of ultra-large crude carriers, have a rabbits in Australia, mongooses in events, issues and findings in the capacity of 550,000 tons) I could give Hawaii, sparrows in New York, drug field for the Encyclopedia Brittanica you an ice age. After which we all had bugs in Colombia, Ice 9 and other Yearbook. beer on the lawn outside Redfield great man-induced ecological disas- The article notes that "the bloom Laboratory. ters." experiment was planned as a pilot In the spring of 1989, however, Whether similar Fe fears are real or study for a decade-long international people began to take this idea false is open to debate. The ferrugi- investigation aimed at understanding seriously. Can the Southern Ocean be nous feline (sorry) is out of the bag, the links between biogeochemical fertilized with Fe to stimulate the for better or worse (see Hugh Duck- cycles in the ocean and global active removal of CO2 from the low's article in this issue). What to climate change. It represents the first atmosphere? The question has do? large-scale exploration of the spring divided those interested into three We can ignore it, like most of my phytoplankton bloom, an annual camps with three points of view. colleagues, and hope that it all goes event hypothesized to affect the 1. The whole business about Fe away. Nevertheless, Fe research will cycling of carbon dioxide between is nonsense and should be go forward, if not with oceanogra- the atmosphere and the ocean. forgotten (this is from my closest phers, then with atmospheric chem- "The event, analogous to the friends and colleagues). ists, cellular physiologists and springtime greening of the land 2. Fe fertilization is our chemical engineers. The biggest surface, has been estimated to salvation; it will enable us to danger, in my view, is that large-scale account for up to half of the annual remove CO, from the atmosphere iron fertilization will occur without transport of oceanic carbon into the and lessen global warming (not to the necessary understanding of just deep water by biological processes." U.S. JGOFS Newsletter - April 1990 11 U.S. JGOFS Calendar 1990 17-20 April: JGOFS Pacific Planning 22-23 May: JGOFS Resource Coordi- 2-4 October: SCOR General Meeting, Workshop, Tokyo, Japan. Contact: M. nation Meeting, ICSU Headquarters, Rostock, G.D.R. Contact: E.Tidmarsh, Leinen, University of Rhode Island, Paris, France. Contact: E. Tidmarsh, Dalhousie University, Halifax, N.S., Kingston, RI. Dalhousie University, Halifax, N.S., Canada. Canada. 8-11 May: WOCE Scientific Steering 26-28 November: International Sci- Group, Washington, DC. Contact: P. 3-6 July: SCOR-SCAR, "Biogeochem- entific Conference on the JGOFS North Koltermann, WOCE.IPO, IOS, Worm- istry and the Circulation of Water Atlantic Bloom Experiment, Washing- ley, U.K. Masses in the Southern Ocean," Brest, ton, DC. Contact: E. Tidmarsh, France. Contact: P. Treguer, Université Dalhousie University, Halifax, N.S., Bretagne Occid., Brest. Canada. 15-17 May: U.S. JGOFS Steering Committee meeting, Bermuda Biologi- cal Station for Research, Bermuda. 3-7 September: IGBP Scientific Advi- 29 November: JGOFS Executive Contact: H. Livingston, Woods Hole sory Panel, Paris. Contact: IGBP Secre- Meeting, Washington, DC. Contact: E. Oceanographic Institution, Woods tariat, Stockholm, Sweden. Tidmarsh, Dalhousie University, Hal- Hole, MA. ifax, N.S., Canada. 5-7 September: Equatorial Pacific 21-25 May: "Oceanography from Modeling Workshop, Princeton, NJ. Space 1990," Venice, Italy. Contact: J. Contact: R. Toggweiler, GFDL, Prince- Gower, IOS, Sydney, B.C., Canada. ton. The Biogeochemical Ocean Flux Study (BOFS), the United Kingdom's JGOFS program, publishes a newsletter titled "BOFS News and Views." Those interested in receiving this publication should contact: Carol Turley, Editor, Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth, PL1 2PB. U.S. JGOFS U.S. Planning Office at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Nonprofit organization U.S. POSTAGE Woods Hole, MA, 02543 PAID Permit No. 46 Woods Hole, MA 02543 508-548-1400, Ext. 2834 Telex: 951679 FAX: 508-548-1400-6128 CLIMATE CHANGE: EVOLVING NATIONAL & INTERNATIONAL STRATEGIES DR. JOHN M. WEISS ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES BRANCH, OFFICE OF GLOBAL ISSUES 482 - 6743 OUTLINE: 1. White House Conference II. Scientific and Economic Debates III. US/World Comparison IV. Case Studies: Japan West Germany United Kingdom France Netherlands Soviet Union China India Canada V. Conclusion/Prospects for a Climate Convention Bush Library Photocopy Preservation WHITE HOUSE CONFERENCE Not much reporting yet. US can expect criticism for lack of concrete proposals, President speech. Mexico, USSR, West Germany, have expressed dismay over proliferation of conference. France, West Germany, Norway, Netherlands likely to press hard for emission stabilization and possibly reduction. Will argue that it is economically and technologically feasible. United Kingdom, Japan will push go slow approach. Brazil, India will demand technology, financial transfer. USSR, Poland too, but less aggressive. Need to distinguish from IPCC. Bush Library Photoco, Preservation CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES SELECTED COUNTRIES, MARCH 1990 YES NO MAYBE Total CO2 Per Capita National Research Stabilize 20% 1987, Mmt 1987, tons Cmtee Program 2000 ? Strategy 2005 ? AUST. 65 4.00 E,C,F,G BRAZIL 54 0.38 F CANADA 111 4.29 E,N,G,C CHINA 595 0.56 E,F,N,C,G FRG 182 2.99 T,E FRANCE 95 1.70 N INDIA 153 0.19 F,E INDO. 35 0.20 F ITALY 102 1.78 N JAPAN 251 2.06 N MEXICO 81 0.98 ? NETH. 36 2.49 T,E,C,N,F NIGERIA 16 0.15 ? NORWAY 12 2.93 T,C POLAND 128 3.38 E USSR 1,040 3.70 E,C UK 157 2.75 E,C,G,N,T ZAIRE 1 0.03 ? ? ? T-taxes E-energy effic. N-nuclear G-natural gas C-conservation F-reforestation Bush Library Photocopy Preservation SELECTED COUNTRIES CO2 EMISSIONS (per capita 1987) 6 5 4 Metric tons of carbon 3 2 1 O EAST GERMANY USA WEST USSR GERMANY CHINA INDIA UNCLASSIFIED Bush Library Photocop Preservation CO2 EMISSIONS (1950 - 1987) 1,400 1,200 1,000 Million metric tons 800 600 400 200 0 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 CHINA FRANCE WEST GERMANY Bush Library Preservation JAPAN USA USSR Unclassified CLOSING COMMENTS Several West Europeans likely to meet 2000 stabilization target, few will meet the Toronto 20%, 2005 reduction target. Virtual unanimous support for a climate convention of some sort, but many hurdles remain. Most West Europeans and Canada will insist on CO2 stabilization target in convention or simultaneous protocols. LDCs will go along if it does not apply to them. Japan may press for carbon tax instead of targets. India, China, Brazil will refuse to sign convention that does not provide for financial aid, technology transfer. Soviets unlikely to be major obstacle. Bergen Conference another Noordwijk. Late August-early November critical. IPCC 4th Plenary, UNEP/WMO working group UN General Assembly, and 2nd World Climate Convention. Bush Library Photocopy Preservation Technology Transfer and the Global Environmentaural Presented to: Dr. D. Allen Bromley Office of Science and Technology Policy Presented by: Deputy Secretary W. Henson Moore Department of Energy Technology Transfer and the Global Environment Purpose of Briefing Provide information on energy technologies that reduce emissions and increase energy efficiency Discuss a possible presidential initiative to help make these technologies available to developing countries worldwide The U.S. and the world community can benefit from these technologies in many ways: Help U.S. industries gain entry into new markets Reduce long-term pressures on international oil supplies Help LDC's and CPE's pursue more viable paths to economic growth Show U.S. initiative to international community in addressing global climate concerns, while achieving other desirable economic and energy goals The briefing consists of an Overview, Capabilities, Key Issues, and Recommendations Rapidly growing worldwide LDC Primary Energy Consumption Projected Growth by Source energy requirements Coal 150% Oil 75% World Primary Energy Requirements N Gas 250% 1987-2005 Nuclear 50% Hydro/Other 110% Billion tonne oil equivalents 14 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 Consumption (BTOE) 12 1987 2005 Source: OECD/IEA Draft Joint Study 10 December 1989 120% 8 62% 6 4 26% CPE Primary Energy Consumption 2 Projected Growth by Source 0 1987 2005 Coal 47% Oil 45% OECD CPE LDC N Gas 115% Source: OECD/IEA Draft Joint Study, December 1989 Excludes non-commercial fuels in CPE and LDC. Nuclear 180% Hydro/Other 55% 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 Consumption (BTOE) 1987 2005 Source: OECD/IEA Draft Joint Study December 1989 Will increase total CO2 emissions Growth in C02 Emissions (1987-2005) CO2 Emissions (hundred billion tonnes) 10 8 105% 6 57% 4 2 33% 0 1987 2005 OECD CPE LDC Source: OECD/IEA Draft Joint Study December 1989 but the needs of specific countries are diverse! (1987-2000) China & India Mexico High growth in electric demand: South Korea "Moderate" electric 135% (China) and 175% (India) and Taiwan power growth (90%) Reliance on large coal reserves Small oil reserves 61 % and 58% of total capacity Rapidly developing per capita economies Plant/transmission inefficiencies Reliance on oil No natural resources - China plant eff. 31% vs. U.S. 36% exports for revenues - India trans. losses 20% vs. U.S. 8% 30% nuclear power Nuclear power by 36% coal-fired using the year 2000 imported coal Argentina & 5 Other Asian* Venezuela High growth in Slow electric electric demand power growth (38%) Mix of fossil & Reliance on hydro hydro sources and natural gas - Coal 31% - Hydro 50-61% - Oil 9% - N Gas 26% Brazil - N Gas 22% High debt and loss - Hydro 24% High growth in electric demand Almost no nuclear of export dollars Heavy reliance on hydropower (90% of total capacity) * Small but growing use of nuclear Indonesia, Malaysia, Rapid deforestation of Amazon Pakistan, Thailand, ans Philippines Source: Lawrence Berkely Laboratory, October 1989 What technologies are available? Coal-fueled Facilities CO2 emissions from coal-fired plants are a function of total efficiency. A conventional coal-fired plant operates at about 35% efficiency. By 2005 coal based technologies such as pressurized fluidized bed combustion, which increases efficiency to 40% and integrated gasification combined cycle, which increases efficiency to 42%, can reduce CO2 emissions 10 and 14% respectively. By 2030, technologies such as fuel cells and magneto- hydrodynamics (MHD) which are expected to increase efficiency to 50 and 55%, and can reduce CO2 emissions 28 and 34% respectively. What technologies are available Oil and Gas fueled facilities Oil-fired facilities can improve operating efficiencies by better maintenance and energy management practices; no new technologies are planned. Natural gas is the cleanest burning fossil fuel, emitting nearly 43% less CO2 at the same efficiency as a coal-fired facility. Existing natural gas technologies such as combustion turbines are approximately 32% efficient By 2000, technologies such as steam injected gas turbines (STIG) and intercooled STIG, having efficiencies in the 45% range, will reduce CO2 emissions about 48% By 2025, advanced natural gas-fired technologies such as gas-fired fuel cells and MHD will achieve efficiencies between 50 and 60%, thus reducing CO2 emissions 57-65%, respectively. Traditionally natural gas has not been transmitted over great distances overwater, however LNG is now expected to play a greater role in the international market place. What technologies are available? Alternative Fuels for Power Generation Nuclear energy is a practical non-C02 emitting energy source for some countries. Technology Available: Impact Pressurized Water Reactor Today In 1987, the use of nuclear plants (Westinghouse) worldwide reduced total global Boiling Water Reactor (GE) CO2 emissions by over 7%, compared to using fossil fuels. Advanced Light Water Reactor 1995 Capacity available in smaller (600 MWe ALWR) increments than current technology to greater export potential; reactor simplicity in construction than existing technology Modular High Temperature 2015 Capacity available in smaller Gas Reactor (MHTGR) increments, can be operated by only two operators and one supervisor, meets safety and non-proliferation requirements. The high cost and technical sophistication of current technologies, along with concerns over non-proliferation and hazardous waste disposal may limit its application in many instances. What technologies are available? Alternative Fuels for Power Generation Renewable energy technologies produce no CO2 and can service today's power sector from watts to megawatts Technology Available: Impact Geothermal/Hydro Today Baseload. Produces no CO2. Already under development in Phillipines and other regions with high quality resources. Biomass Today Zero new CO2 producer. Baseload. Most prevalent energy source in developing countries. Size range from 10KWs to MWs Hybrid Wind/PV/Biomass Today Provides for zero additional CO2. Technologies Solar Thermal used with or without existing diesels. Renewable resource in virtually every region of the world. Sizes from KWs to MWs PV/Wind/Small Hydro Today Produces no CO2. Off-grid. Pre- electrification, water pump - thousands of applications now. From KW to one MW. Solar hot water Today Installations reduce overall fuel consumption/ solar buildings power load. Fits everywhere. What technologies are available? End Use Technology and Engineering Services Most immediate opportunities for reducing CO2 emissions is through more efficient energy use from power systems to end use Technology Available: Impact POWER SYSTEMS Today Services new energy markets that are - Least cost planning expanding each year. - Load leveling techniques - Batteries INDUSTRY Today CPE's as they release artificially - Waste stream utilization constrained prices will create - Heat recovery processes an instant and huge demand for energy in all sectors: BUILDINGS - Power transmission - Lighting products - steel production - Heating and refrigeration - Lighting - Insulation retrofit - Better and more efficient auto fuels TRANSPORTATION - Fleet standards - Fuel alternatives The Federal Delivery System What it is How it could work CORECT's Program 13 Agencies, Chaired by DOE (Est by P.L. in 84) Bridge gap between U.S. Industry and export markets Help LDC's accelerate electrification process DOE Expand program, increase financing & include Commerce Treasury CPE's Interior State Defense Demonstration projects U.S. Information Agency Agency for International Development DOE's Clean Coal Technologies Export Program Involves 10 of the 13 Agencies on Chart Overseas Private Investment Corporation Cooperation with Industry, Foreign Governments Office of the U.S. Trade Representative Country-specific technical cooperation Trade and Development Program arrangements Small Business Administration Other Agencies Use the Infrastructure as Well Export-Import Bank EPA and Peace Corps Cooperative Project World Bank's Energy Planning Project (ANL) DOS/DOE Energy Planning Training Courses AID/DOE/TDP - International Energy Trade and Development Program Expand jointly funded/interagency technology programs Source: "Energy Technology for Developing Countries" Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, et al (December 1989) The International Network World Bank International Development Association (IDA) International Finance Corporation (IFC) International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) Regional Development Banks Asian Development Bank (ADB) Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) African Development Bank Multinational Organizations UN Development Programme (UNDP) European Economic Community International Energy Agency International Atomic Energy Agency Nongovernmental Organizations (NGOs) Matching Capabilities With Opportunities Lessons we have learned? Developing countries and CPEs must have a policy and planning infrastructure to develop sound energy programs Adapting technology to meet specific country needs requires direct involvement of the local participants Greater coordination and cooperation among U.S. agencies and with U.S. industry is essential for developing market opportunities The most significant barrier to acquiring and using new technologies is financing Current level of assistance is accomplishing only limited improvement in energy system performance Technology transfer is complete only when the receiving country can install, operate and maintain, the technology on a continuing basis Its an International Market with International Competition A recent World Bank survey (not including China) indicates that developing countries plan to invest about $750 billion in electric power system expansion in the next decade. As CPE's become newly emerging democracies, huge new demands will be unleashed Largest part of this market, and fastest growing in Asia U.S. market shares in Asia are small compared to Japan (example: DC motors and generators, Korea. U.S. market share 2%, Japan 69%) Other countries are mounting their competitive efforts now, often with different rules. Forming a National Initiative Begin now Elevate exports as part of a global climate change strategy Get our delivery system in order Identify opportunities and match with technologies Organize a public/private team U.S. agencies U.S. industry Financial institutions International and nongovernmental organizations In conclusion The opportunity is enormous Reduce environmental damage Improve energy efficiency Increase economic stability Promote U.S. trade The U.S. has the resources Technology leadership Available infrastructure Access to capital The U.S. can take a leadership position in the international community to transfer energy efficient, environmentally sound technologies to meet the needs of developing nations. Carbon Dioxide Emissions Per Capita, 1987ª excludes deforestation The United States Government has not recognized Latvia, and Union. necessary oritative. Arctic Ocean Aretic T Ocean / 03 Svalbard Greenland (WORL) (DEN.) NORWAY ICELAND SWEDEN FINLAND SOVIET UNION CANADA I POLAND AUG. FRANCE MINOR MONGOLIA BOMANIA YUGO. ITALY BULGARIA North UNITED STATES SPAIN KOREA TURKEY KOREA Atlantic OTFRUS SYRIA TUNISIA CHINA LESANOK JAPAN BRAQ ISRAEL MOROCCO IRAN Ocean ALGENIA PAKISTAN LIBYA EGYPT SAUDI BAHAMAS ARABIA AGATAR Subare U.A.E. MEXICO INDIA CUBA DOMINICAN OMAN BURMA Heng lisms REPUBLIC MAURITANIA time ST. KITTS AND NEVIS (PORT.) - BILIZE ANTHOUA AND BARBUDA JAMAICA CAPE MALL ST. LUCIA NIGER YAR VIETHAM VERDE CHAD VINCENT AND SENEGAL 1 P.D.R.Y BOATEMALA SUDAN YEMEN) BALVADOR MICARAGUA THE BRENADINES BARBADOS THE BAIRBIA PHILIPPINES BRENADA PANAMA TRINKAD AND COSTA RICA ANGERIA SRI PROGRATED STATES VENEZUELA GUYANA BIERRA LBONE IVORY ETHIOPIA LANKA SURNAME DOABT C.A.R. OF Franch Rolemn LINEMA CAMEROON SOMALIA COLOMBIA (FR.) MALAYSIA SAO TOME UGANDA a MALINVES AND PRINCIPE KENYA ECUADOR EQUATORIAL ZAIRE BURDNER TANZANIA INDONESIA BOLOW MLANE PERU BRAZIL ANGOLA >> MALAW ZAMBIA BOLIVIA South MOZAMBIQUE MADAGASCAR Indien Hemble Metric tons PARABUAY per capita Atlantic AUSTRALIA a Ocean SWAZILAND SOUTH CHILE AFRICA 5.00 + Ocean ARGENTINA 3.00 4.99 C.A.R. CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC 1.00 2.99 F.R.O. FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY G.D.R. -GERMAN DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC Bush Library Photocopy P.D.R.Y. PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF YEMEN U.A.E. -UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 0- 0.99 Preservation Y.A.R. -YEMEN ARAB REPUBLIC Unclassified 718353

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Global Warming: Charts and Graphs [1989-90]

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