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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): General [1 of 2] [1990]
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): General [1 of 2] [1990]
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O
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
May 2, 1990
MEMORANDUM FOR JOHN H. SUNUNU
FROM:
D. ALLAN BROMLEY Alla
SUBJECT:
CARBON PROBLEM
I am sorry that it has taken as long as it has to get back to you on this carbon
question, but it has turned out to be more complicated than I had previously
anticipated. With very substantial help from Bob Watson of NASA, Bob Corell of NSF,
Berrian Moore of the University of New Hampshire,- and Nancy Maynard of my office, I
now believe that I have a reasonably detailed understanding of what is going on and
how the various numbers fit together.
I would propose to lay out in this memorandum my understanding of how the numbers
are being put together in current publications up to and including the IPCC Working
Group Reports. As a reference that ties the rough numbers together, I would suggest
that you use the enclosed figure. One that I supplied to you previously.
First of all, a general comment may be in order. As you will see in the following notes,
there is a fair degree of definitial confusion that is being used to the advantage of
activists in the field. I shall try to be as specific as possible concerning these matters of
definition.
0
It has become traditional in the field when discussing doubling to use the
preindustrial situation as the base but this is rather infrequently mentioned. The
preindustrial burden of carbon in the atmosphere was with reasonable certainty, 600 Gt.
0 In all discussions of doubling, one must understand that there is a missing word.
What is being discussed is in fact effective doubling, i.e., one includes all other
greenhouse gases, such as methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone, with carbon dioxide and
then asks when the total radiative forcing brought about by this mixture of greenhouse
gases, will be twice that caused by the pre-industrial atmospheric loading.
0 The increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is perhaps the best known single
datum in the whole discussion resulting from the pioneering measurements of Keeling
of the Scripps Oceanographic Institution beginning in 1957 in Hawaii as part of the
U.S. participation in the International Geophysical Year. These data show that in 1990
the best figure for the atmospheric burden of carbon is 750 Gt (this is larger than the
740 Gt shown in the figure but is a more correct number for the present day situation).
Given this number, it is then clear that the carbon content of the atmosphere has
increased by 25% with respect to the pre-industrial base.
0 However, at the present time, the other greenhouse gases, i.e., methane, nitrous oxide,
and ozone together have almost precisely the same radiative forcing impact as does the
anthropogenic carbon dioxide which then raises the total radiative forcing by another
25% and leaves us with a radiative forcing term in the atmosphere that is 50% above
the preindustrial value.
There is an obvious weakness in this whole argument in that we know relatively less
about the methane and nitrous oxide situation in the preindustrial period so that our
base is perhaps a little weak but the argument is that the uncertainties that reflect
these other gases in the preindustrial period are relatively small.
Despite such questions it is very clear that these numbers represent, by far, the hardest
data in the whole carbon cycle.
0 In order to do its work the Working Group #1 of IPCC required information on the
future emission profile for greenhouse gases and requested such information from
Working Group #3. As nearly as I can determine, the three scenarios that are being
studied in the IPCC are the result of a rather arbitrary selection of the dates 2025,
2050, and 2090 as representing high emission, medium emission, and low emission
scenarios and then working backwards from those arbitrarily selected numbers. There
has simply been no very credible, complete attempt to build these effective doubling
dates from the bottom up.
Perhaps the most effective study is the one that has been done by EPA and Dutch
workers at the request of the IPCC Working Group #3, but in this study only the
carbon dioxide emissions have been considered (omitting methane, nitrous oxide, and
the like) and the preliminary results of these studies, although not yet released, would
seem to suggest that an effective doubling would occur perhaps by 2020, although there
is very substantial uncertainty associated with this estimate.
Unfortunately, the IPCC groups in at least the first revision of their working group
documents have chosen, instead of presenting analyses based on all three of their
scenarios, simply to pick the high emission one with an effective doubling date of 2025
and have also agreed to refer to this as the "business as usual" scenario.
Let me now turn to the question of how the numbers get put together.
0 In all the IPCC work, it is assumed that carbon dioxide contributes between 50 and
60% of the total radiative forcing.
0 The dominant source of anthropogenic carbon is that resulting from the combustion
of fossil fuel shown in the figure as 6 Gt per year. Evidence over the past few years
indicates that after more than a decade of relatively constant emissions, our fossil fuel
combustion rate has begun to grow again and the assumption is that by the 2020 to
2035 period fossil fuel combustion will correspond to between 7 and 8 Gt a year.
All this being assumed, we are then defining an effective doubling as corresponding to
the situation where we have 900 Gt of carbon in the atmosphere-carbon up by 50% over
the preindustrial value with the other greenhouse gases contributing an additional 50%.
This is obviously a misleading situation because in fact the carbon is only increasing by
50% and yet everyone is talking about doubling without making it at all clear that other
greenhouse gases are involved.
0 Given that we are now at 750 Gt in the atmosphere, we then require only another 150
Gt.
0 It is always assumed, however, that 50% of the anthropogenic carbon is removed
from the atmosphere so that we would then require an emission of 300 Gt and at an
emission rate of 6 Gt per year from fossil fuel combustion, we come up by simple
arithmetic with effective doubling in 50 years, i.e., by 2040. Obviously if we agree with
the IPCC that the emission rate from fossil fuel combustion will rise between now and
that time, the date at which effective doubling occurs will be earlier. If it were to
average say 7.5 Gt per annum, we would be talking reaching the effective doubling point
in 2030.
Contrary to what I mentioned to you earlier, the carbon release from the manufacture
of Portland Cement through dehydration of calcium carbonate, contributed only a few
percent of that due to fossil fuel combustion and is not considered in most of these
discussions. It had been raised in earlier papers as being potentially a much more
serious contributor but the more quantitative estimates of the last few years have
reduced its importance.
There is obviously another source of carbon release from the earth's surface through
deforestation. In the figure this is indicated at 2 Gt per year, but a very detailed
estimate carried out in 1980 could only put the number at somewhere between 0.6 and
2.5 Gt per annum. The number is very poorly known and in most current calculations
it is taken as 1.6 Gt per year, or frequently rounded as here to 2 Gt per year.
0 The above mentioned Hawaiian data allow us to say with considerable certainty that
we are adding between 3 and 3.5 Gt of carbon to the atmosphere each year at the
present time.
0 We are then faced with a open question. If we add up the deforestation and fossil
fuel contributions and set them equal to 7.5 Gt per year, and if 3.5 Gt, let us say, stays
in the atmosphere, where does the remaining 4 Gt per year go?
o Classically, it has always been assumed in recent calculations that the ocean uptake
is 2.5 Gt per year, but this number could be anywhere between I and 3 Gt per year and
the IPCC has chosen to use a value of 2 Gt per year in its calculations. The
measurements of carbon dioxide partial pressure in the oceanic surface waters has been
extremely spotty and limited to only some parts of the ocean so that our knowledge of
its present value is relatively uncertain.
0 However, when we add up these numbers, we come up with something like 2 Gt per
year carbon that is missing. Some assume that it must be taken up by the terrestrial
biosphere in mid-latitudes and others assume that for unspecified reasons, the
deforestation contribution must be very close to zero rather than the usually assumed 2
Gt per year. It is quite clear that there is no good scientific basis for either of these
suggestions and it is also clear that those in the field are simply working backwards
and trying to explain this missing carbon is some plausible fashion.
0 The question of the possible sequestering in mid-latitude terrestrial biota raises the
question of one of the many feedback loops that have not been adequately considered.
We know that over the past 50 years there has been a regrowth of forests in the mid-
latitudes largely because of a migration from rural to urban societies, and it is entirely
possible that the nitrous oxide, and to a lesser extent, sulphur dioxide, released from
industrial processes could have acted as fertilizer and thus stimulated biomass carbon
sequestration. Indeed, the mere presence of more Co2 could itself have acted as a
fertilizer and increased growth rates.
0 It has become quite clear in the recent past that the controlling factor in ocean
sequestration of carbon is not in the atmosphere ocean interface but rather in the
effectiveness of the translation mechanism which carries carbon from the surface to the
much deeper water. However, these transport mechanisms are very poorly understood.
0 Given all of the above, you have some feeling for some of the uncertainties involved
and, I hope, a better feeling for the basic thrust of the IPCC calculations as to effective
doubling times.
0 Having established a doubling time, one then turns to the global circulation models
to try to establish what impact the increase in radiative forcing would have on global
temperatures and the like. The best IPCC estimate at the moment lies in the range of
1.4 to 2.9 degrees centigrade relative to the preindustrial situation.
0 These models would also predict that today's global temperature should have
increased between 0.5 and 1.1 degrees centigrade relative to that in say, 1750. There is
general agreement in the scientific community that on average there has been something
like a 0.5 degree centigrade in the mean global temperature over this period. And this
would, therefore, fall at the low end of the model predictions if all of the warming could
be attributed to anthropogenic carbon. Obviously it cannot.
0 There are several possibilities. The observed warming could be attributed to purely
natural fluctuations and there is clear evidence in the paleoecological ice core data of
such fluctuations in the past, although these data are not sufficiently accurate to really
pin this down with satisfactory precision. Alternatively, the observed increase could
result from the superposition of an anthropogenic signal and a natural one and, since
we have no way of knowing apriori what the natural signal is, we are left with
substantial uncertainty. It is quite clear, however, that we are not talking about the 5
degrees centigrade predictions that have gained substantial publicity.
0 As something of a footnote, and simply to illustrate some of the difficulties here, it
should be noted that in the IPCC calculations it is assumed that we retain 50% of our
current CFC emissions in the industrialized world plus some estimate of growing use in
the developing world. Whereas, given present indications it is entirely possible that a
very large fraction of the most potent CFCs will be removed from the atmosphere by
about 2000. If this is the case, of course, the IPCC calculations overestimate the future
radiative forcing but the effect is not all that large. If one were to assume that the
CFCs were removed effectively by the year 2000, then we move the effective doubling
time back by between 10 and 15 years.
This is typical of the uncertainties that lurk throughout this entire question, not to
mention the whole series of feedback loops that are only beginning to be examined.
I am enclosing herewith the third draft of a section of the first IPCC Working Group
Report that deals with greenhouse gases and aerosols and, as you will note, considers in
section 1.2.7 a number of the possible oceanic and terrestrial feedback mechanisms.
This at least represents a start in the right direction. This particular chapter has, like
all the others, not been scrubbed by any of the IPCC participating governments but it
has been prepared by a group led by Bob Watson and I think is a workman-like job in.
general.
I hope that this is helpful. I've concluded that relatively few people who have been
engaged in the global warming discussions really understand what is going on with the
numbers and I have attempted to spell out my best understanding here.
Enclosures
Deforestation
Atmosphere 740
+3
2
6
100
"
50
50
93
90
Land Biots
e 3
550
50
Rivers
Surface Ocean 200
Soil and Detritus
36
Fossil Puel
1500
0
Biots 3
40
4
34
37
Intermediate and Deep Waters
38000
0.2
Sedimentation
Figure 1:
Global carbon reservoirs and fluxes. The numbers apply for the present-day .
situation and represent typical literature values. Fluxes, e.g. between atmosphere
and surface ocean, are gross annual exchanges. Numbers in bold-face italics
indicate net annual perturbation fluxes to the atmosphere and annual atmospheric
CO2 increase due to human action. Units are gigatons of carbon (GrC; 1Gt = 109
merric tons = 10124g) for reservoir sizes and GIC yrl for fluxes. More details
and discussions are found in several reviews (Sundquist, 1985; Trabalka, 1985;
Bolin, 1986; Siegenthaler, 1986).
Ken,
Fyl
NOTES FROM
Juckie
Vickie V. Sutton
PCC-GLOBAL CLIMATE WORKING GROUP
JANUARY 16, 1991
STATE DEPARTMENT
Dan Evans did his presentation a second time for the PCC group, after he left
Bromley's presentation this morning.
His presentation was fairly consistent with the Bromley presentation, except he did
not cite a specific miles per gallon quotation, instead saying they did not have specific
figures on it yet. One of his associates asked me to relay to Dr. Bromley that the 40
MPG figure was a bit exaggerated.
In the discusson about reductions of 10-40% of greenhouse gas emissions, he said
that it could be "accomplished by the nation at a fairly low cost." The 40% end of the
spectrum assumed total penetration.
Buff Bohlen and Zeigler were being briefed at 10:45a.
Negotiating Session in February:
The first reception will be on February 6, Wednesday, from 7-9pm in the Air and Space
Museum, hosted by Buff Bohlen. Everyone is invited to attend from the PCC group.
Invitations will not be sent out because they are "trying to save money" since they are
footing the whole bill for the negotiating session.
Brussels Meeting, January 28-29, 1990:
The Brussels meeting delegation includes: Howard Gruenspecht, Chris Dawson, Dan
Esty, Jonathan Weiner, JR Spradley, Bob Reinstein, Dick Morgenstern, and ???
They will have a meeting in Room 7835 on Tuesday, January 22, 1991 at 10am.
Briefing Book:
The briefing papers passed out at the meeting today, need to be commented on by
Friday COB to Jonathan PErshing at 647-4069.
Science and Economics paper: DOE has drafted targets and timetables, but it is being
held up for consistency with the Bromley group paper; and the NES. [The primary
concern; however, is that Watkins does not want the NES figures released!]
Also, Bob Watson, NASA (I think) said that CEES needed until Tuesday noon to go
through the paper and sign off on it.
OMB Circular 175: Reported that it was distributed by the Bromley group and "once
it is finished, it will be on its way"
global warming
for
tack
M. Thatderd.,1990 March
Document Originally
Attached to
Following Page
FACSIMILE MESSAGE
********
TO: NANCY MAYNARD USA (202) 395-3719
COMPANY OFFICE OF SCIEN. TECHNOL. POLICY
FROM: BOB WATSON & DAN ALBRITTON
DEPARTMENT: IPCC WG1, WINDSOR, UK
DATE: 25 MAY 90
TOTAL PAGES: Cover and 9 pages
to follow
OUR FAX NUMBER: 0784 - 430596
OUR TEL NUMBER: 0784 - 434355
MESSAGE:
This is the printed test of Mrs. That her's
speech. We do not know what she
actually said (only a small group was
presents. the add a few comments to
the attached test.
Dan & Bob
(IF YOU HAVE ANY TROUBLE WITH THIS TRANSMISSION PLEASE DO
NOT HESITATE TO CONTACT US FOR RE-TRANSMISSION OF FAX)
ANUGRAHA HOTELS LTD.
WICK LANE
ENGLEFIELD GREEN. EGHAM
SURREY TW20 0XN
TEL: (0784)434355
FAX: (0784) 430596
TELEX: 928116 ANUGRAG
Registered office as above Registered No. 1641226 England.
201.
TOO 7
STELLS
969099 T810 RAY
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PRIME MINISTER'S SPEECH
AT THE
OPENING
OF THE
HADLEY CENTRE FOR CLIMATE
PREDICTION AND RESEARCH
ON
FRIDAY 25 MAY
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24 MAY '90 09:39
P.3
- 2 -
Many of us have been worried for some time now about the
accumulating evidence of damage to the global environment and the
consequences for life on earth and for future generations. I spoke about
this to the Royal Society in 1988 and to the United Nations General
Assembly in November last year.
Today, with the publication of the Report of the Inter-Governmental
only the only the summary has
Panel on Climate Change, we have an authoritative early warning system:
an agreed assessment from some three hundred of the world's leading
scientists of what is happening to the world's climate. They confirm
that global warming is taking place as a result of man's activities; and
that it will continue, with consquences which are capable of prediction.
We want to predict these more accurately. That's why we are opening
This is not correct.
this centre today.
The report does not assert
that the current trend
are to warming it actually this far
been made available
man's activities. Rathers,
We have, therefore, a Report of historic significance. It's not
something arcane or remote from everyday concerns: what it predicts will
affect our daily lives. Governments and international organisations in
every part of the world are going to have to sit up and take notice and
25/05 90 11:35 FAX 0784 430596
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24 MAIT '90 09:40
P.4
- 3 -
respond.
Of course there is a lot more that we still need to find out. But if
the Panel's predictions are broadly right, then the world could become
- hotter than at any time in the last 100,000 years [and can I remind you
that Abraham was around only 5,000 years ago]. We know that there
have been major changes in the world's climate and environment in the
past. For instance, in this country you could grow vines as far north as
Edinburgh in Roman times, and fossils of serpents have been found from
even more ancient times. But the changes which we are talking about
now will occur at a faster rate than anything our natural world has
known in the past. One of the effects could be a great migration of
animal and plant life, and possibly the loss of some of them altogether.
The calculation has been made that a one degree rise in temperature
would over time lead forests to move 100 kilometres further north and
some ordinary farming crops may move 200-300 kilometres further north.
Just imagine the effects on farming, on the CAP, and on the sort of
crops you can grow in particular areas - and on nature reserves. They
might find themselves in the wrong places, if the flora and fauna which
they are meant to protect migrate.
Changes in the sea level as the sea expands could also affect our lives
considerably. At a Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting a year
or two ago, the President of the Maldives reminded us that none of his
country was more than six feet above sea-level, and the consequences of
a significant overall rise in the sea-level could be one less member of the
Commonwealth. Other low-lying countries like. Bangladesh would be badly
affected, and there would surely be a great migration of population away
from areas of the world liable to flooding, and from areas of declining
rainfall and therefore of spreading desert. Those people will be crying
out not for oil wells but for water.
Of course every detail, every particular, may not be quite right. It
very rarely is when you are trying to predict the future. There is still a
great deal of work for the scientists to do, particularly in trying to
estimate the detailed distribution of the effects of global climate change
which I have described. As the Panel's report itself will make clear, we
should have a better understanding of many of these things in ten or
contr
STRICH PHYMOONE
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fifteen years' time, say by about the year 2005. By then we shall have
benefited from new satellite measurements, from new and more powerful
computers and the results of the work being done on ocean circulation.
But we can already draw some broad conclusions from the work
which has been done.
First, the climate changes which we have witnessed in the past have
mainly been the result of natural factors changes in the earth's orbit
or in the amount of radiation given off by the sun for instance. Man's
activities had only a small part to play. In the future, this can no
longer be assumed. It is man's activities which already bear considerable
responsibility for the changes which are beginning to take place in the
world's climate, above all the greenhouse gases which we are adding to
the air at an unprecedented rate. The annual accumulation in carbon
dioxide reaching the atmosphere is of the order of 3 billion tonnes, and
half of all the carbon dioxide emitted since the industrial revolution is
still in the atmosphere -and all this while we are at the same time
destroying tropical forests which are a vital way of taking carbon dioxide
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out of the air and storing it. It stands to common sense that diese
figures are going to go up as the world's population increases, with
greater intensity of agriculture, more destruction of forests and
woodlands, and more use of fossil fuels. When I was born, the world's
population was some 2 billion people. My grandson is going to grow up
in a world of more than 6 billion people, and the predictions are that we
shall have 10 billion people by the middle of the next century.
Whichever way you look at it, problems are bound to arise as a result of
going from 2 billion to 10 billion in such a short time. Putting them
right will be all the harder until we succeed in curbing that rate of
population growth.
The second conclusion that can already be drawn is that more than
ever we are one world. The fact is that you cannot divide up the
atmosphere into segments and say: all right, well look after our bit and
you look after yours. We shall only be able to deal with the problems by
a giant international effort, in which we all co-operate.
And that leads on to the third conclusion: we would be taking a
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great risk with future generations if, having received this early warning,
we did nothing about it: or just took the attitude: well, it'll see me out.
I remember saying in my Royal Society Speech that we had a full
repairing lease on this Earth. With the work done by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we can now say that we
have the surveyor's report: and it shows there àre faults and that the
repair work needs to start without delay. The problems do not lie in the
future, they are here and now: and it is our children and grandchildren,
who are already growing up, who will be affected.
In some areas we have started, for instance by the commitment to
phase out CFCs and other ozone-depleting substances by the end of the
century. But that will only be effective if it extends to developing
countries too, and they will need help. We shall have to address this
issue urgently at the London Ozone Conference next month. We are
working on re-afforestation and Britain in particular has been active in
this area. We are hoping to stabilise levels of carbon dioxide emissions.
And the private sector is constantly showing the way with its ingenuity
and inventiveness. For instance, KI have developed a new way of
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producing ammonia which reduces nitrogen oxide emissions by 87 per
cent, sulphur dioxide by 95 per cent and carbon dioxide by 50 per cent -
and it uses less resources. The net result is significantly lower
production costs and very substantial environmental benefits. Indeed, if
this particular process of producing ammonia were adopted world-wide,
the savings in terms of pollution would be equivalent to taking 5 million
cars off the road. It shows what can be done.
This is where the work of this Centre which we are opening today
comes in. With its advanced computing facilities and the superb skills of
its scientists it will help us look into the future and predict more exactly
the changes in our climate which we can expect. Previously we could
get some idea of future climates by observing and analysing the patterns
of the past. But the changes we can expect in the future will be so
much greater than anything we have hitherto experienced, that these
methods will not be adequate and we shall need to rely much more on
computer models, which take in the full complexity of the climate system.
It will be on the basis of this work that we shall be able to
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a reaustic international programme OI action and an equally
realistic time-table. Discharges of carbon dioxide and CFCs, if unabated,
will go on accumulating in the atmosphere and cannot be reversed. Even
the most urgent measures now cannot fully repair the damage of the past.
But action now will prevent the problem from becoming acute and give us
time to improve our predictions and enlarge our understanding. The
Panel's report will present us with a very full agenda for the next
fifteen years up to 2005 and we should start on it without delay.
May I wish this Hadley Centre and all who work here every success.
Your task is no less a one than to help us safeguard the future of our
planet. May we all be equal to that task.
onn
STRICH
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MEMORANDUM FOR: Alan Bromley
FROM:
Bob Watson Bob.
Dan Albritton Dan
SUBJECT:
IPCC WG 1 Executive Summary
We attach the final version of the Executive Summary of the IPCC
Working Group 1. It is a 3-page condensation of the
approximately 35-page Policymaker's Summary. The final version
of the latter will be available sometime next week, and we will
send you a copy as soon as we obtain it. We may be able to get a
marked-up next-to-final version to you somewhat sooner.
The attached Executive Summary will be made available to the
public. The Chairman of Working Group 1 will give a press
conference here today and the Executive Summary will be
available. It will also be the basis of Mrs. Thatcher's speech this
morning at the opening of the Climate Center.
That speech portends to be quite pro-active regarding global
warming and actions to limit it. We hope to have a copy of that
speech later today and will fax it to you also.
We add a few comments here with regard to the attached
Executive Summary. It incorporates many (but not all) of the U. S.
suggestions. We think that the Summary is an adequate
representation on the Policymaker's Summary. Compared to the
earlier version (Third Draft, 2 May 1990), the most significant
changes are the following:
O
First statement ("We are certain of ..."). first bullet: This
version clarifies what is "real", i.e., the natural greenhouse
effect. Hence, misinterpretation is less likely than with
the earlier version.
First statement. second bullet: There are still a lot of
"wills", but it now has a few balancing words like "on
average". The statement on the water vapor feedback is
stronger here than in the previous version.
Third statement. first two bullets: All four of the IPCC
Scenarios are mentioned, and they are explicitly identified
as "scenarios" (in contrast to the implication that they are
25/05 90 10:49 FAX 0784 430596
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"predictions"). The predicted temperature increases are
referenced to today's temperature, rather than the pre-
industrial temperature.
O
Third statement. first bullet: The fact that this prediction
has uncertainty is now better reflected, to some extent, in
the use of the word "likely" in the next-to-the-last
sentence.
o
Fourth statement: The topics for which there is the most
uncertainty now appear in the-title.
o
Fifth statement: The comparability of the observed
temperature change to natural variation has been moved
forward to the first sentence.
O
Sixth statement: The first three bullets are now consistent
with the U.S. Global Change Research Program's three goals
of "observe, understand, and predict". The needs for
expanding research to address the uncertainties and better
international data exchange now appear explicitly.
We would be pleased to give you a short summary of the process
next week, if you wish.
CC: Nancy Maynard
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group I
SCIENTIFIC ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Report to IPCC, 25 May 1990
Executive Summary
We are certain of the following:
there is a natural greenhouse effect which already keeps the Earth warmer than it
would otherwise be.
emissions resulting from human activities are substantially increasing the
atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, methane,
the chlorofluorocarbons and nitrous oxide. These increases will enhance the
greenhouse effect, resulting on average in an additional warming of the Earth's
surface. The main greenhouse gas, water vapour, will increase in response to
global warming and further enhance it.
We calculate with confidence that:
some gases are potentially more effective than others at changing climate, and
their relative effectiveness can be estimated. Carbon dioxide has been
responsible for over half the enhanced greenhouse effect in the past, and is likely
to remain so in the future.
atmospheric concentrations of the long-lived gases (carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide
and the CFCs) adjust only slowly to changes in emissions. Continued emissions of
these gases at present rates would commit us to increased concentrations for
decades to centuries. The longer emissions continue to increase at present day
rates, the greater reductions would have to be for concentrations to stabilise at a
given level.
the long-lived gases would require immediate reductions in emissions from
human activities of over 60% to stabilise their concentrations at today's levels;
methane would require a 15-20% reduction.
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Based on current model results, we predict:
under the IPCC Business-as-Usual (Scenario A) emissions of greenhouse
gases, a rate of increase of global mean temperature during the next century of
about 0.3°C per decade (with an uncertainty range of 0.2°C to 0.5°C per decade);
this is greater than that seen over the past 10,000 years. This will result in a likely
increase in global mean temperature of about 1°C above the present value by
2025 and 3°C before the end of the next century.
The
rise
will
not
be
steady
because of the influence of other factors.
under the other IPCC emission scenarios which assume progressively
increasing levels of controls, rates of increase in global mean temperature of about
0.2°C per decade (scenario B), just above 0.1°C per decade (scenario C) and
about 0.1°C per decade (scenario D).
that land surfaces warm more rapidly than the ocean, and high northern latitudes
warm more than the global mean in winter.
regional climate changes different from the global mean, although our
confidence in the prediction of the detail of regional changes is low. For example,
temperature increases in Southern Europe and central North America are
predicted to be higher than the global mean, accompanied on average by reduced
summer precipitation and soil moisture. There are less consistent predictions for
the tropics and the southern hemisphere.
under the IPCC Business as Usual emissions scenario, an average rate of global
mean sea level rise of about 6cm per decade over the next century (with an
uncertainty range of 3 - 10 cm per decade), mainly due to thermal expansion of the
oceans and the melting of some land ice. This amounts to a rise of about 20cm in
global mean sea level by 2030, and 65cm by the end of the century. There will be
significant regional variations.
There are many uncertainties in our predictions particularly with
regard to the timing, magnitude and regional patterns of climate
change:
sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, which affect predictions of future
concentrations
clouds, which strongly influence the magnitude of climate change
oceans, which influence the timing and patterns of climate change
polar ice sheets which affect predictions of sea level rise
These processes are already partially understood, and we are confident that the
uncertainties can be reduced by further research. However, the complexity of the
system means that we cannot rule out surprises.
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Our judgement is that:
Global - mean surface air temperature has increased by 0.3°C to 0.6°C over the
last 100 years, with the five global-average warmest years being in the 1980s.
Over the same period global sea level has increased by 10-20cm. These increases
have not been smooth with time, nor uniform over the globe.
The size of this warming is broadly consistent with predictions of climate models,
but it is also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability. Thus the
observed increase could be largely due to this natural variability; alternatively this
variability and other human factors could have offset a still larger human-induced
greenhouse warming. The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse
effect from observations is not likely for a decade or more.
There is no firm evidence that climate has become more variable over the last
few decades. However, with an increase in the mean temperature, episodes of
high temperatures will most likely become more frequent in the future, and cold
episodes less frequent.
Ecosystems affect climate, and will be affected by a changing climate and by
increasing carbon dioxide concentrations. changes in climate will change
the composition of ecosystems; some systems will benefit while others will be
unable to migrate or adapt fast enough and may become extinct. Enhanced levels
of carbon dioxide may increase productivity and efficiency of water use of
vegetation. The effect of warming on biological processes, although poorly
understood, may increase the atmospheric concentrations of natural greenhouse
gases.
To improve our predictive capability, we need:
to understand better the various climate-related processes, particularly
those associated with clouds, oceans and the carbon cycle
to improve the systematic observation of climate-related variables on a
global basis, and further investigate changes which took place in the past
to develop improved models of the earth's climate system.
to increase support for national and international research activities,
especially in developing countries
to facilitate international exchange of climate data
1. We applaud Mrs. Thatcher's committment to furthering
understanding of global climate issues by increasing Britain's
research budget by 5.5 million pounds. This will complement the
United States' 1 billion dollar global research effort.
2. Current Bush Administration policy responses to potential
climate warming will result in a reduction of "greenhouse gases"
on par with what PM Thatcher announced today. The steps we are
taking now, pending a more certain scientific understanding of
the global climate, will result in a reduction of these gases by
some/over 25% from presently projected levels in the year 2000.
Thatcher's suggestion today of targeting a 30% reduction by 2005
is "in the same ballpark" as current U.S. policy will achieve.
[ONLY IF ASKED ABOUT THATCHER'S COMMENTS ON THE SCIENCE.
]
3. The reporting on Thatcher's speech today has tended to
oversimplify the actual findings of the IPCC working groups by
not reflecting the degree of uncertainty that has yet to be
resolved. We agree that our predictive capabilities of climate
systems need to be strengthened and in fact this is an important
part of our research program.
global file Change
Document Originally
Attached to
Following Page
09/05/90 14:20
6475947 STATE DEPT OES/E
1
02
UNCLASSIFIED
2198D
OES/EGC:RJFORD:ABW
9/4/90 EXT. 7-4069 2198D
OES/EGC:RAREINSTEIN
OES/EGC:DAREIFSNYDER
NSF FMBERNTHAL
S/S-0: JRMANZANARES
PRIORITY
ALLDP
FOR ECON/SCI COUNS, BUDAPEST PLS PASS-EPA ADMINSTR. REILLY
N/A
RAR
SENV, KSCA, ENGR
RJFR
IPCC 4TH PLENARY SESSION
DAR
FMB
1. SUMMARY, THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE
JRM
CHANGE {IPCC} APPROVED ITS FIRST ASSESSMENT REPORT ON
CLIMATE CHANGE AT ITS FOURTH PLENARY SESSION IN
SUNDSVALL, SWEDEN, AUGUST 27-31. DESPITE EFFORTS BY SOME
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES SEEMINGLY DESIGNED TO PREVENT
COMPLETION OF A REPORT AT SUNDSVALL, AGREEMENT WAS
REACHED AT 3:00 A.M. ON AUGUST 31 AFTER A VERY DIFFICULT
MEETING. THE IPCC REPORT WILL NOW BE TRANSMITTED TO THE
PARENT UN BODIES {WMO AND UNEP}, THE SECOND WORLD CLIMATE
CONFERENCE, AND THE U.N. GENERAL ASSEMBLY AS ORIGINALLY
SCHEDULED, THUS PAVING THE WAY FOR THE START OF FORMAL
NEGOTIATIONS ON A FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE
CHANGE. END SUMMARY.
2. THE IPCC FOURTH PLENARY SESSION WAS HELD IN
SUNDSVALL, SWEDEN FROM AUGUST 27-30 UNDER THE
CHAIRMANSHIP OF DR. BERT BOLIN OF SWEDEN. 72 COUNTRIES
PARTICIPATED, INCLUDING 42 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES {UP FROM
A TOTAL OF 33 LDCS AT THE FEBRUARY PLENARY SESSION IN
WASHINGTON}. THE U.S. DELEGATION WAS HEADED BY DR. FRED
BERNTHAL, DEPUTY DIRECTOR, NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION;
UNCLASSIFIED
09/05/90 14:20
6475947 STATE DEPT OES/E
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03
UNCLASSIFIED
2
THE ALTERNATE U.S. REPRESENTATIVE WAS ROBERT REINSTEIN,
DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY FOR ENVIRONMENT, HEALTH AND
NATURAL RESOURCES, DEPARTMENT OF STATE.
3. THE PRIMARY PURPOSE OF THE FOURTH PLENARY SESSION WAS
TO APPROVE THE IPCC'S FIRST ASSESSMENT REPORT ON CLIMATE
CHANGE SCIENCE, IMPACTS, AND RESPONSE STRATEGIES. IPCC
CHAIRMAN BOLIN BEGAN BY INVITING COMMENTS FROM THE
PARTICIPATING COUNTRIES ON THE DRAFT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
AND OVERVIEW AND CONCLUSIONS PAPER, WHICH HE HAD PREPARED
IN CONSULTATION WITH THE WORKING GROUP CHAIRMEN. SOME
DELEGATIONS, INCLUDING THE U.S. AND JAPAN, DIRECTED THEIR
COMMENTS PRIMARLY AT THOSE SECTIONS OF THE DRAFT PAPER
WHICH THEY FELT DID NOT FULLY REFLECT THE CAREFUL BALANCE
STRUCK IN THE UNDERLYING WORKING GROUP REPORTS. THESE
INCLUDED AN OVERSTATEMENT OF WHAT IS KNOWN ABOUT THE
SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND A LACK OF RECOGNITION OF
THE FACT THAT THE IPCC WAS UNABLE TO UNDERTAKE A FULL
ANALYSIS OF VITAL ECONOMIC ISSUES. FOR THESE AREAS, THE
U.S. AND OTHER DELEGATIONS PROPOSED ADDING SPECIFIC
QUOTES FROM THE UNDERLYING DOCUMENTS IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN
A MORE BALANCED PRESENTATION.
4. OTHER DELEGATIONS, LED BY BRAZIL, EXPRESSED
DISSATISIFACTION WITH THE ENTIRE IPCC PROCESS, IN
PARTICULAR THE LACK OF PARTICIPATION BY DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES IN IPCC WORKING GROUP ACTIVITIES. THESE
DELEGATIONS SOUGHT TO BLOCK A CONSENSUS ON A FINAL TEXT,
ARGUING THAT THE REPORT SHOULD EMPHASIZE SUCH ISSUES AS
THE PROVISION OF NEW AND ADDITIONAL FINANCIAL RESOURCES
TO LDCS, THE PREFERENTIAL TRANSFER OF ENVIRONMENTALLY
SOUND TECHNOLOGIES, AND THE ROLE OF THE UNGA' IN
PREPARATIONS FOR NEGOTIATIONS ON A FRAMEWORK CONVENTION.
AT ONE POINT, WHEN CONSENSUS SEEMED IMPOSSIBLE, IT WAS
SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED THAT THE IPCC MEET AGAIN IN
SEPTEMBER IN GENEVA TO COMPLETE ITS CHARGE.
5. THE NORTHERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES, WHICH HAVE ACTIVELY
CALLED FOR SPECIFIC AGREEMENT ON GREENHOUSE GAS TARGETS
AND TIMETABLES, WERE NOT so OUTSPOKEN AT THE SUNDSVALL
MEETING. PERHAPS RECOGNIZING THE IMPORTANCE OF HAVING
THE IPCC COMPLETE A REPORT AS AN PREREQUISITE FOR THE
FRAMEWORK CLIMATE CONVENTION NEGOTIATIONS, THEY PLAYED A
CONTENTION- MODERATING ROLE IN SEEKING AGREEMENT ON MAJOR AREAS OF
6. IT SOON BECAME EVIDENT THAT CONSENSUS COULD NOT
PAPER REACHED ON THE 40 PAGES OF THE OVERVIEW AND CONCLUSIONS BE
AS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES CONTINUED TO RAISE
UNCLASSIFIED
09/05/90 14:21
6475947 STATE DEPT OES/E
5
04
UNCLASSIFIED
3
OBJECTIONS WHICH COULD NOT BE RESOLVED IN SMALL WORKING
GROUPS. BY THE AFTERNOON OF AUGUST 30, AGREEMENT IN
PRINCIPLE HAD BEEN REACHED ONLY ON PORTIONS OF THE
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF THE FINAL IPCC REPORT AND FRAGMENTS
OF THE "OVERVIEW AND CONCLUSIONS" PAPER.
7. AS A RESULT OF THE IMPASSE, IPCC CHAIRMAN BOLIN
PROPOSED TO PROCEED BY RADICALLY CHANGING THE STRUCTURE
OF THE FINAL IPCC REPORT. IT WAS AGREED TO ELIMINATE THE
35-PAGE OVERVIEW AND CONCLUSIONS PAPER AND COMPLETE
INSTEAD AN ENLARGED EXECUTIVE SUMMARY, TO BE CALLED
SIMPLY "OVERVIEW", BASED ON WORK DONE AT SUNDSVALL. THE
FINAL IPCC REPORT WOULD THUS CONSIST OF THIS "OVERVIEW"
TOGETHER WITH THE ALREADY COMPLETED POLICYMAKERS
SUMMARIES OF THE THREE IPCC WORKING GROUPS, AND THE FULL
REPORT OF THE SPECIAL COMMITTEE ON DEVELOPING COUNTRY
PARTICIPATION. BASED ON THIS AGREEMENT, WORK ON
COMPLETING THE IPCC EXECUTIVE SUMMARY RESUMED AND A FINAL
TEXT WAS SUMMARILY APPROVED AT 3:00 A.M. ON AUGUST 31.
8. FROM THE U.S. PERSPECTIVE, THE FINAL IPCC TEXT IS
HIGHLY DESIRABLE BECAUSE IT IS DRAWN LARGELY VERBATIM
FROM THE UNDERLYING DOCUMENTS AND THUS MAINTAINS THE
FINAL IPCC REPORT REFLECTS THE FULL RANGE OF VIEWS
CAREFUL BALANCE REACHED BY THE IPCC WORKING GROUPS. THE
EXPRESSED ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND PROVIDES A SOUND BASE
FROM WHICH TO INITIATE NEGOTIATIONS ON A FRAMEWORK
CLIMATE CONFERENCE. WITH THE REPORT APPROVED, THE
PUBLISHED, AND FORMALLY PRESENTED TO THE SECOND WORLD
CONVENTION. THE IPCC REPORT WILL NOW BE TRANSLATED,
WMO/UNEP ORGANIZATIONAL MEETING IN GENEVA FROM
24-26 CAN NOW PROCEED AS SCHEDULED AND MAKE THE SEPTEMBER
A PREPARATIONS FRAMEWORK FOR THE START OF FORMAL NEGOTIATIONS NECESSARY TOWARD
FEBRUARY. YY
CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN EARLY
UNCLASSIFIED
DPC GCWG - Rump Session
February 15, 1990
1. Attendees:
D. A. Bromley
M. Boskin
M. Deland
F. Bernthal
D. Reifsneider (with FB)
R. Grady
S. Danzansky
R. Corell
F. Keel
N. Maynard
K. Yale
B. McBee
2. Corell will have the revised version of the issues paper for review
by the group.
3. Corell and Keel are prepared to discuss the status of preparations for
the Conference, such as:
Budget (must have resolution - can not move forward without)
Location
Logistics
Agenda (with speakers, special events, etc)
Working group activities
4. Any other issues you wish to have the GCWG address tomorrow?
AUG 31 '90 08:36 AA NWS
AttN E.Bierly 357- 7745 P.2/3
90-08-30 20:38 FROM:
ID:
SID 1
Fax Message to Dr. John Knauss, Undersecretary of Commerce for
Oceans and Atmosphere
Fax: 202-377-8203
global
Also, please pass to Dr. E.W. Friday, Jr., Assistant
Administrator for
Change
Weather Services
Fax: 301-587-4524
file
By Thursday at 6 PM, the IPCC-IV had only completed work on the
scientific part of the Executive Summary of the Overview and
Conclusions document as well as about 20 pages of the main
text. The impacts part of the Executive Summary was available
in draft by had not yet been discussed In plenary while the
response strategies part was being hotly debated word for word
in plenary. A working group meeting was unable to produce a
draft of the response strategies part of the document after
three hours discussions the evening before.
Most delegates still feel that an executive summary can be
finished by 11 PM despite the departure at 6 PM of the
interpreters and a few of the delegates who had originally
expected the session to conclude by noon. The First Assessment
Report may consist of the agreed Executive Summary plus five
annexes: the three Policymakers Summaries, the report of the
developing countries, and the legal measures paper.
Some delegations (notably USSR, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia)
proposed a 3-day meeting in September in Geneva before the
preparatory meeting for the framework convention to finish the
main text of the Overview and Conclusions with the idea that the
Executive Summary would be issued as a report of this meeting
only. The Western Europeans, the U.S. and others were not in
favor of this additional meeting. Most felt that it would look
bad to loave thic mooting without an IPCC Report of some form.
The conduct of the meeting left much to be desired. Perhaps
entertaining written comments before the meeting and coming in
with new text with comments would have made things go more
smoothly. Because of the many U.S. interventions, we are being
perceived as obstructionists to the production of a report by
other delegations and the press. By Thursday, the number of
U.S. interventions had been greatly reduced leaving most
comments to be made by others first, but the obstructionist
perception persisted and whatever intervention was made by the
U.S. was usually debated strongly by others.
A lot of hallway discussion took place regarding the
preparations for the framework convention including the chairman
and secretariat, and the drafting session for the SWCC
ministerial declaration and its chairman. The U.S. passed out
its own draft for the SWCC ministerial declaration and found
much sympathy for our approach especially among the several WMO
Perm Reps at this meeting.
AUG 31 '90 08:37 AA NWS
P.3/3
- 2 -
While the exact handling of the secretariat for the framework
convention was unresolved, Tolba had suggested that it be split
between WMO and UNEP while Obasi wanted it to be at WMO
headquarters for economy of effort, making use of the vacated
offices of the SWCC Coordinating Office after December 1990.
The likely chairman for the framework convention preparatory
meeting will be Topkov (Bulgaria) who is the current UNEP Governing
Council Chairman. The likely co-chairman for the drafting session
for the SWCC ministerial declaration will be Zou (China), WMO
President and Topkov.
J. R. Spradley
Martin C. Yerg, Jr.
Ten y
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20506
August 28, 1990
MEMORANDUM TO STEPHEN FARRAR
SPECIAL ASSISTANT TO THE PRESIDENT FOR
POLICY DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR FOR
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY
FROM:
NANCY MAYNARD NM
OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY
ROBERT W. CORELL Ruc
NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION
SUBJECT: REFERENCE MATERIAL ON GLOBAL CHANGE FOR MEETING
WITH PRIME MINISTER THATCHER
In preparation for the upcoming meeting with Prime Minister Thatcher, we have put
together some reference materials for Drs. Sununu and Porter. Included is a set of
background notes on major upcoming events or meetings on global change as well as
some information from recent conversations with representatives of the UK
government to provide clues to their current thinking. If you have any questions,
please do not hesitate to call.
Update - The UK, Global Change, and the US
1. Representatives from the British government have recently
approached several of us (OSTP, NSF, NASA) to urge that the US
and UK work much more closely on the issue of global change
because they feel that we are not very far apart on the substance
of the issue and that we can make alot more progress on
essentially common interests if we work together. Specifically,
they feel quite strongly that we should join together in our
preparations for the Framework Convention in order to negotiate
an agreement which is most acceptable to both countries.
*** Last week, in fact, Sir Terrance Heiser (Permanent
Secretary, Dept. Environment) was in Washington and made a point
to meet with EOP and agency people on the need for the 2
countries to work together as we approach the Framework
Convention negotiations and the Second World Climate Conference.
(He was very interested in both President Bush's and Dr. Sununu's
views on various aspects of global change.)
Specifically, he noted that they feel quite strongly that we
should join together in our perparations for the Framework
Convention in order to negotiate an agreement which is most
acceptable to both countries.
They assume that we, like they, want to negotiate a Vienna-
type Convention with protocols. (If we do not plan to
follow this model, we may want to consider working with them
to plan a joint strategy.)
They think we should be working on the Protocols within the
near future (e.g., a Science Protocol)
Sir Heiser is just completing a government white paper on
"UK Policy on Global Change"; however, we haven't been able
to get a copy or any hint of its substance.
Background Notes
on
Science and Policy Issues Related to Global Change
(August, 1990)
MAJOR EVENTS OR MEETINGS:
IPCC - The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
The IPCC is holding its fourth Plenary Session in Sundsvail, Sweden,
August 27-30, 1990. The IPCC functions under the auspices of the
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations
Environment Program (UNEP), both UN organizations. The principle
agenda items of the meeting are:
1. Approve the Final IPCC Report, in particular the Policymakers
Summary. The U.S. position on the Policymakers Summary, also
known as the July 1990 Draft "IPCC Overview and Conclusion
Summary was articulated to the IPCC Chairman, Dr. Bert Bolln,
in a letter from Dr. Fred Bernthal dated August 20, which stated
that the U.S. position on the Overview and Conclusions
Summary is "that the careful balance which was struck in the
Working Groups and conveyed in their Reports has not been
maintained in this draft." The U.S. suggested to Bolin that "you
may wish to consider a significantly shorter Overview and
Conclusions document, drawing heavily on the three executive
summaries (taken from the three IPCC Working Group Reports on Science,
Impacts, and Response Strategies) to which the underlying summaries
for Policymakers would be attached." A telephone report from
Dr. Robert Watson who Is the lead scientist on the U.S.
delegation in Sundsvall indicates:
O
As of Monday night, only broad delegation statements
and general talks (Obasai and Tolba) had been made.
O Watson had gone over US comments with Bolin and thought
there was a good chance our points will be incorporated but
cautioned that it was early in the meeting to predict
outcome. He will try to call in each day for update.
2.
Consider the future workplan and structure of the IPCC.
There are several other items that may be considered at the Sundsvall
IPCC meeting, including the fact that the Noordwijk ministerial meeting
on climate change approved a "remand" that specifically requested the
IPCC to provide inputs to the Second World Climate Conference (
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October 29, November 7, 1990) concerning greenhouse gas emissions
targets. The other issue that is likely to be addressed is the
Framework Convention on Climate Change that is proposed for
February 1991, and which the President Bush has indicated the U.S.
will host.
WMO - UNEP MEETINGS
September. The WMO and UNEP have scheduled several important meetings in
Ad Hoc Working Group of Government Representatives to Prepare for
Negotiations on a Framework Convention on Climate Change
Secretary-General Obassi of the WMO and Executive Director Tolba of
the UNEP have Invited governments to send "legal and technical
experts" to an "open-ended" ad hoc meeting on 24-26 September 1990
In Geneva to assist Messrs. Obasi and Tolba "begin preparations for
negotiations on a framework convention on climate change ... taking
into account (the recent) work of the IPCC". The United States has not
yet received an agenda and other documentation for this meeting.
Nevertheless, the present U.S. understanding is that this meeting will
define the process through which such a convention should be
developed. It is expected that the U.S. offer to host the Initial session
of the negotiations, probably in February 1991 in Washington. The U.S.
position Is that such a convention should remain focussed on "climate
change" and should not be broadened to address the much wider
range of issues associated with "giobal change*.
It may be Important to note that Prime Minister Thatcher has proposed
that the United Kingdom stabilize carbon dioxide emissions by the year
2005 at 1990 levels, if other countries are willing to do so as well.
International Coordination of Global Change Research
The international global change research effort has concentrated to
date on physical and natural sciences research. Research on the
"human dimensions" and economics of global change is being slowly
but effectively fed into this effort. The physical and natural sciences
components are well-coordinated at the international level, primarily by
the WMO and ICSU through the World Climate Research Programme
(WCRP) and the International Geosphere-Blosphere Programme (IGBP).
ICSU has convened a serles of major meetings on the IGBP on 3-7
September 1990 in Paris. The scientific communities of both the U.K.
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and the U.S. will be solidly represented at these meetings. ICSU has
also recently established a new advisory committee to assist ICSU to
identify and fill any gaps which might exist between the WCRP and the
IGBP In addressing the full range of global research needs.
Governmental agencies which fund global change research in a
number of countries have begun meeting twice a year on a relatively
Informal basis to review the status of such funding on a truly
International level. This Group is called the International Group of
Funding Agencies for Global Change Research (IGFA), the UK member
of which is Dr. Elleen Buttle, Head of NERC, and the U.S. member Is
Dr. Robert Corell, Chairman of the US/Global Change Research
Program Working Group of CES. A key objective of this Group is to
Identify any Important needs for research and/or supporting technology
which are not being met and to assure that these needs are met
through appropriate existing national funding mechanisms. The U.S.
CEES Initiated this effort In response to advice from ICSU. The CEES
hosted the first meeting in January of 1990; the FRG hosted the second
in July of 1990; and the U.K. will host the third In February of 1991.
The U.K. and its scientific community have been and are expected to
continue to be strong supporters of global change research, including
human dimensions and economic research. The Prime Minister is
considered to be a strong advocate of basic research, including
research on global change.
SECOND WORLD CLIMATE CONFERENCE (October 29 - November 7, 1990)
The Second World Climate Conference will be held In Geneva,
Switzerland, October 29 - November 7, 1990. The First World Climate
Conference was held in Geneva, in 1979, and resulted in the
establishment of the World Climate Program, and the World Climate
Research Program, one of the key components in the global change
research programs in the U.S. and In other countries. The Second
World Climate Conference Is divided into two parts, a scientific meeting
of experts and a ministerial meeting. The major purposes of the two
meetings are:
Scientific Meeting (Attended by Experts, no delegation):
o "To create an awareness through specific case studies
or examples drawn from experience in the World Climate
Programme or the economic of climate and benefits from
climate applications"
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o "To assess the current state of knowledge on the global
Issues of climate change and greenhouse gases, and
requirements for future scientific activity and Implications
for public policy*
U.S. attendees include scientists and representatives of
government offices and agencies, Including the CES, and
scientists and experts from the non-governmental science
community.
Ministerial Meeting (There will be country delegations):
o The Ministerial part of the SWCC will be held in Geneva
November 6-7,1990. It is expected to culminate in the
adoption of a declaration, a draft of which was sent to
governments on July 14, 1990 by WMO Secretary General
Obasi. The draft declaration has been made available to
all Interested US agencies and discussed at two
Interagency meetings in early August. US comments
should have been returned to Obasi as well as specific
amendments by August 24th so another version of the
declaration can be prepared for the preparatory meeting
scheduled to take place in Geneva September 27-29, 1990.
o US concerns about the declaration have been
transmitted in a letter to Obasi from Under Secretary
McCormack. Essentially they are:
* the primary thrust of the declaration should be
closely connected with needs and commitments for
monitoring, detecting and studying climate change,
* SWCC Is an appropriate forum for launching
international cooperation in understanding climate
change and related issues such as - global
radiation balance, cloud amounts and types, the
role of oceans, chemical reactions in the
atmosphere, and economic aspects,
* significant uncertaintles regarding timing,
magnitude, and regional aspects of climate change
are not made clear,
* many statements regarding policy actions are
premature and prejudge the outcome of the future
negotiations on a framework convention on climate
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change,
* there should be a focus on widespread
Implementation of measures that are beneficial In
their own right as well as beneficial from a climate
change viewpoint,
* areas where further scientific and economic work
is needed should be Identified.
There have been Indications that as many as ten Heads of State
may address or attend the Ministerial portion of the SWCC,
Including Prime Minister Thatcher. The level of participation and
specific individuals for a U.S. delegation have not been decided.
ENVIRONMENT 1992 - A Meeting of Major Importance in Brazil in 1992
The meeting will be held in Rio in June of 1992. U.S. preparation are
being coordinated through a Policy Coordinating Committee (PCC),
chaired by the DOS.
The first meeting of this kind was held in Stockholm In 1972, known as
Environment '72. The U.S. participation was lead by a team of Russell
Train, as Head of CEQ, and Howard Baker, who at that time was a
Congressman. We understand that neither Baker nor Train held the title
of Ambassador, though we are still checking these facts. One of the
most Important results of this meeting was the formation of the United
Nation Environment Program (UNEP).
It has been proposed that the U.S. appoint a "Special Ambassador to
oversee the complex U.S. efforts required to be successful at the
meeting" and to serve as head of the U.S. delegation. OMB has the
lead to consider this proposal.
SCIENCE ISSUES
The major new developments In the science of global change were
discussed at a recent briefing, lead by Drs. D. Allan Bromley and
Robert W. Corell. The Talking Points for this briefing are appended.
Drafted by Robert W. Corell
August 28, 1990
Talking Points
for
Science Briefing on Global Change
KEY SCIENCE ISSUES
(AUGUST 1990)
GREENHOUSE GASES-SOURCES AND SINKS
-
CARBON SEQUESTRATION (CARBON DIOXIDE)
*
OCEAN VS TERRESTRIAL BIOSPHERE
-
METHANE
O
ROLE OF OCEAN IN CLIMATE
-
EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION-INTERANNUAL TIMESCALES
-
AIR-SEA COUPLING-DECADAL TIMESCALES
*
NORTH ATLANTIC-THERMOHALINE FORCING
*
ANTARCTIC HEAT UPTAKE
EARTH SYSTEM MODELLING
-
CLOUDS/RADIATION BALANCE/LIQUID WATER
-
VALIDATION OF QUANTITATIVE OCEAN MODELS
-
REGIONAL MODELS/PREDICTION-ENSO READY TO GO
-
ROLE OF LAND SURFACE IN TRACE GASES, ENERGY
AND WATER EXCHANGE
SNOWMASS INSTITUTE-FULLY-COUPLED SIMPLE MODELS
AVAILABLE IN 4-5 YEARS
O
TRENDS
-
LONG-TERM VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURE WELL-DOCUMENTED
.
OBSERVED INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE OVER LAST ONE
HUNDRED YEARS; CAUSE AND EFFECT NOT ESTABLISHED
.
DETECTION OF PREDICTED ANTHROPOGENIC WARMING WILL
TAKE 10 TO 50 YEARS
.
SEA LEVEL RISE-ROLE OF POLAR ICE SHEETS UNCERTAIN
.
RESPECTIVE CONTRIBUTIONS OF DEFORESTATION-TROPICAL
AND MID-LATITUDE UNCERTAIN
3023
GLU
MAINARD
1 010/010
O
RESEARCH PRIORITIES
-
CARBON CYCLE
-
GLOBAL WATER AND ENERGY CYCLES
-
GLOBAL MODELS WITH REGIONAL RESOLUTION
.
ECOSYSTEMS AND POPULATION DYNAMICS
Policy Forum
Bush Preservation Photocopy
A Proposed Structure for an
International Convention on Climate Change
WILLIAM A. NITZE
F
ormal negotiations toward an international convention on
terms of several years.
climate change will begin shortly after completion of the
2) An executive council. The executive council would consist of
interim report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
representatives of the parties, including the bureau, which would
Change (IPCC); presentation of the report to the Second World
meet more frequently than the conference of the parties and would
Climate Conference will be this fall. The United Nations (UN) and
oversee implementation of whatever program was approved by the
its member governments will be under pressure to have a final text
conference.
ready for signature at the 1992 UN Conference on Environment
3) Permanent committees. The convention should establish perma-
and Development, if not before. In a 25 May speech responding to
nent committees on science, environment, and socioeconomic im-
greenhouse warming predictions made by the IPCC science work-
pact, and policy responses similar to IPCC Working Groups I, II,
ing group, Margaret Thatcher said that Britain would reduce the
and III.
proposed growth of its CO₂ emissions enough to stabilize them at
4) A strong secretariat. The breadth and complexity of the climate
1990 levels by 2005 if other countries did their part.
change issue make it essential that the work carried out under the
Yet the United States, Japan, and other countries that emit
convention be supported by a strong secretariat of at least 20
substantial quantities of greenhouse gases continue to resist poten-
professionals, including experts on atmospheric science, economic
tially expensive emission-reduction targets or control measures,
analysis, financial mechanisms, international law, and public educa-
citing continuing uncertainties about the extent, timing, and distri-
tion.
bution of future climate change and its economic consequences.
The convention should go beyond organizational structure to
Similarly, developing countries are unlikely to agree to emissions
establish a process for updating the parties' understanding of the sci-
targets or control measures that they perceive as impeding their
ence and potential impacts of climate change and for building con-
economic development and will almost certainly condition their
sensus on policy responses. It is crucial that the science and impacts
participation on a commitment by the Organization for Economic
committees produce peer-reviewed annual updates of their respec-
Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries to provide addi-
tive assessments to provide a basis for evolving policy responses.
tional development assistance.
To support this ongoing assessment process, the convention
When confronted with these political realities, must we settle for a
should explicitly provide for (i) building up the international
"bare-bones" framework convention similar to the Vienna Conven-
network of climate monitoring stations as part of the World Climate
tion on Protection of the Ozone Layer, or can we devise a more
Program coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization;
substantive convention that would stimulate policy changes by the
(ii) international collaboration in developing and funding a space-
parties without requiring costly emission reductions in the short-
based monitoring system along the lines of Mission to Planet Earth;
term? I believe we should take the latter course and pursue a more
(iii) international cooperation in developing and funding the hard-
substantive convention along the lines described below.
ware and software for the next several generations of general
A central task for a climate convention will be to provide the
circulation climate models; and (iv) maximum participation of
international community with a permanent mechanism for coordi-
developing country scientists and technicians in all these activities.
nating its efforts to deal with climate change. At present, the IPCC is
Whereas an international convention is in many respects a top-
serving this function reasonably well, but it remains an ad hoc
down undertaking, a more bottom-up process is preferable for
working group with no permanent status. The "conference of the
developing policy responses. Only policies formulated at the nation-
parties" to the convention would replace the IPCC and would
al level will overcome widespread concern about economic costs and
establish subsidiary bodies similar to those established by the IPCC.
reflect the different circumstances of different countries. The con-
Those bodies would include the following.
vention should drive this process by requiring each party to prepare
1) A bureau. The bureau, or group of officers in charge of
and distribute its own national plan for reducing greenhouse gas
managing meetings of the parties, would consist of a chair, one or
emissions and for adapting to future change while achieving its
more vice-chairs, and one or more rapporteurs elected for fixed
development objectives. The convention would contain general
guidelines for preparing national plans, including the sectors and
The author is a Visiting Scholar at the Environmental Law Institute. Washington, DC.
Before joining the Institute, the author was Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for
general issues to be covered. Each party would be free, however, to
Environment, Health and Natural Resources.
determine its own emissions reduction strategy consistent with any
IO AUGUST 1990
POLICY FORUM 607
overall targets and timetables established by the convention.
The point is to require each party to make an initial determination
national rate or better, and foreign exchange priority f dividend
and capital remittances within certain limits.
of the national measures it is prepared to commit to and then to
Finally, we come to the issue of targets and tintables for
share that determination with other parties for analysis and discus-
greenhouse gas emission reduction and their appropria role. The
sion. From such analysis and discussion should emerge (i) an initial
baseline emissions scenario based on implementation of the national
purpose of short-term targets and timetables is not to sefinal goals.
There is simply too much uncertainty about the sciere, regional
plans, (ii) a more complete inventory of possible policy responses,
and (iii) an initial indication of the additional financial and technical
impacts, and socioeconomic consequences of climate chage for the
United States and other key countries to commit to amtious short-
resources that might be required to implement the plans, particular-
ly in developing countries.
term emissions reduction goals within the next few yers. Rather,
the purpose of short-term targets and timetables is 1 catalyze a
As national plans are revised and updated, one would hope that
process-to induce governments and the private se:or to take
various parties could be induced to make their plans more ambitious
and effective in response to the information and feedback they
certain initial steps needed to set the stage for more:ar-reaching
changes later on. Once this process has begun we wl be able to
receive from other parties and outside sources. Potential opportuni-
ties for asymmetrical reductions or emissions trades should become
achieve much greater emissions reductions than we can imagine
today, irrespective of what is written into internationaagreements.
more apparent. The convention should require each party to prepare
an initial plan within 1 year of its becoming subject to the
The following is a set of targets and timetables for grenhouse gas
convention and to update that plan every 2 years thereafter.
emissions reductions that might be politically accepable and yet
sufficiently ambitious to begin to bring about results.
To obtain the participation of key developing countries such as
China, India, and Brazil, the convention will have to contain strong
1) A short-term stabilization target placing an oveall ceiling on
the parties' emissions of all greenhouse gases (expresed in equiva-
provisions with respect to technology transfer and financial assist-
lent units) at their levels for the year the convention entered into
ance. Despite the popularity of the sustainable development con-
force effective 10 years thereafter.
cept, developing country governments still perceive a direct conflict
between their goals for economic development and measures to
2) An OECD CO₂ stabilization subtarget that would require
each OECD country to hold its emissions at their average level for
reduce greenhouse gas emissions in their countries. This perception
the year the convention enters into effect and the previous 4 years
is exaggerated. Developing countries collectively will be investing
effective 10 years after the convention enters into effect. The
hundreds of billions of dollars for economic development over the
combination of a chlorofluorocarbon phase-out and stabilization of
next few decades. If this money is invested in systems that are energy
CO₂ emissions from industrialized countries would provide leeway
and materials efficient, the environmental impact of a given level of
for short-term emissions increases from developing countries.
economic development can be substantially reduced. For example,
3) An energy efficiency subtarget, whereby all parties would be
China's ratio of CO₂ emissions to gross national product (GNP) is
obligated to improve the ratio of their carbon emissions to GNP by
roughly five times that of Japan (1). If China were to achieve even
60% of Japanese efficiency and carbon intensity levels in its new
2% per year over the same 10-year period. This rate of improve-
ment, which was achieved by Japan and the United States during the
energy-producing and energy-consuming infrastructure, it could
1973 to 1986 period (2), would allow individual parties to seek the
improve this ratio substantially in a relatively short time. The one
combination of energy efficiency improvements and reductions in
major hurdle is obtaining the technical information, management
the carbon intensity of their overall fuel mix that best suits their
assistance, and capital required to promote more efficient and less
polluting supply and use of energy and other natural resources.
particular circumstances. It would also allow parties with high GNP
growth rates correspondingly high emissions.
A climate convention could make an important contribution to
4) A deforestation subtarget, whereby all parties agree to elimi-
overcoming this hurdle. First, the convention could establish a fund
nate net loss of forests by the end of the 10-year period in question.
to meet all or part of the hard currency costs of preparing and
Achieving this goal would help preserve biodiversity and promote
updating the developing countries' national plans referred to above.
other environmental goals as well as reduce net carbon emissions.
The fund would cover the costs of sending public and private sector
To supplement and reinforce the targets and timetables proposed
experts from OECD countries and multilateral institutions to work
above, the convention should impose a general obligation on the
with counterparts in developing countries in preparing the national
parties to use the best available technology that is economically
plans and more detailed studies of energy, transport, agriculture,
achievable to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. This general
and other key sectors. The money required for such a fund might be
obligation is particularly important for greenhouse gases such as
in the order of a hundred million dollars per year, which could be
methane and nitrous oxide, for which it is difficult to set targets
contributed by the OECD countries proportionate to greenhouse
because their sources and sinks are not yet well understood. An
gas emissions. Only developing countries that were parties to the
annex to the convention could describe specific technologies cur-
convention could have access to the fund, which should provide a
rently available for reducing emissions and their respective unit
major incentive for developing countries to become parties.
costs.
The national plans and sectoral studies would have to identify
The international community has an unprecedented opportunity
capital requirements sector-by-sector and possible sources of capital,
domestic and foreign. To help meet those requirements, the conven-
to pursue a "no regrets" strategy that will put us on a development
path that simultaneously achieves an acceptable degree of economic
tion should contain provisions that encourage the private sector to
development and minimizes the possibility of environmental disrup-
furnish the capital required. The OECD countries would be obligat-
tion. A properly structured climate convention could be an impor-
ed to arrange for soft loans from multilateral development banks,
tant step toward grasping this opportunity.
provide expanded political risk insurance, and even offer credit
guarantees for projects meeting certain criteria. The developing
countries would be obligated to provide a favorable investment
REFERENCES
climate for foreign investors making climate-related investments,
1. W. U. Chandler, Clim. Change 13, 245 (1988).
including effective protection of intellectual property rights and
2. The Global Environmental Challenge: Japanese Initiative for Technological Breakthrough,
patents, no prohibition on operating control, taxation of profits at a
Report of the Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry (March
1990), P. 6.
608
Bush Library Photocopy
SCIENCE, VOL. 249
Preservation
Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet
(George Bush Library)
Document No.
Subject/Title of Document
Date
Restriction
Class.
and Type
01. Memorandum
To: Allan Bromley From: M. Bernthal
7/3/90
(b)(1)
Re: Future of the IPCC and the US Role (3 pp.)
Collection:
Record Group:
Bush Presidential Records
Office:
Science and Technology Policy, Office of (OSTP)
Series:
Bromley, D. Allan, Files
Subseries:
Global Climate Change Files
WHORM Cat.:
File Location:
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): General [1 of 2] [1990]
Date Closed:
4/7/2010
OA/ID Number:
62053-006
FOIA/SYS Case #:
2005-0336-F
Appeal Case #:
Re-review Case #:
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AR Disposition:
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RESTRICTION CODES
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P-2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA]
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financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA]
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PRM. Removed as a personal record misfile.
LIST OF IPCC MEETINGS AND OTHER RELATED INTERNATIONAL ACTIVITIES
Date
Venue
Meeting/activity
Organization
AUGUST
8
Toronto
Ecosystems sub-groups
IPCC WGI/WGII
SEPTEMBER
11-13
Tokyo
World Conference on Global
Japan: Environment
and Human Responses to
Protection Agency
I
Sustainable Development
21-22
11-13
The Hague
International Steering Committee: The Netherlands
Ministerial Conference
11-15
The Hague
World Clean Air Congress
IUAPPA
11-15
Helsinki
Climate Change and Water
WMO
Conference
11-15
Berne
Workshop: Greenhouse Gases
IPCC WGI
Sub-group
18-20
Geneva
Hydrology and Water Resources
IPCC WGII
Sub-group
18-20
Toronto
Meeting of Sub-group on
IPCC WG II
Cryosphere and Permafrost
21-22
Paris
Agriculture and Forestry
IPCC WGII/OECD*
Sub-group (AFOS)
25-26
Reading, UK
Workshop: Sea level rise
IPCC WGI/Univ. of
Sub-group
East Anglia
28-29
Paris
IPCC Special Committee on
IPCC
Developing Countries
28-29
Geneva
Energy and Industry Sub-group
IPCC WGIII
-
Washington
Agricultural Data and Practices:
IPCC WGIII
*
Sub-group on Agriculture and
Forestry (AFOS)
-
Helsinki
Workshop on Boreal Forests:
IPCC WGIII
(AFOS)
* WG III
- 2 -
OCTOBER
2-6
Geneva
Second session
IPCC WGIII
*
2-6
Moscow
Climate Change and World
IPCC WGII
Fisheries: Sub-group on World
Oceans and Cryosphere
12-13
Bonn
Preparatory meeting for Workshop
FRG: Ministry of
on Energy and Environment
Environment
30-31
Bonn
Workshop on Temperate Forests
IPCC WGIII
*
(AFOS)
30-1 Nov. Geneva
Resource Use & Management
IPCC WGIII
*
Sub-group
31-3 Nov. Geneva
Second session
IPCC WGII
-
Oslo
Preparatory meeting: Conference
Govt. of Norway
on "Action for a Common Future"
-
Brazil
Workshop: Tropical Forests,
Govts. of USA/
WGIII (AFOS)
Brazil
NOVEMBER
2-3
Geneva
Agriculture & Forestry Sub-group
IPCC WGIII
*
2-3
Noordwijk
Pre-conference: Senior Officials
The Netherlands
6-7
Noordwijk
Ministerial Conference on
The Netherlands
Atmospheric Pollution and
Climate Change
14-15
Maldives
Meeting of Senior Officials on
Govt. of Maldives
"Small States Conference on
Sea Level Rise"
16-18
Maldives
Ministerial Meeting on "Small
Govt. of Maldives
States Conference on Sea
Level Rise"
21-24
Geneva
Executive Body/LRTAP Convention
ECE*/UN
27-1 Dec.
Miami
Coastal Zone Management Sub-group
IPCC WGIII
*
29-1 Dec.
Bracknell,
Climate Trends Sub-group
IPCC WGI
UK
2 ECE Economic Commission for Europe
- 3 -
DECEMBER
11-14
Bonn
Workshop: Energy and Environment FRG: Ministry of
Environment
18-21
Cairo
Preparing for Climate Change
Climate Institute
-
Brisbane
.
Sub-group on Model Predictions
IPCC WGI
and Validation
SECTION B: 1990
FEBRUARY
-
Washington
IPCC 3rd session/IPCC Bureau
Govt. of USA/IPCC
2nd session
-
Australia
Coastal Zone Management Sub-group IPCC WGIII
*
APRIL
-
-
2nd Conference of the Contracting UNEP/Parties
Parties to the Montreal Protocol
MAY
.
8-16
Bergen
Conference on "Action for our
Govt. of Norway
Future"
22-24
UK
Second session of WGI
UK Govt. IPCC
AUGUST
-
Stockholm 4th session of IPCC
Govt. Sweden/IPCC
NOVEMBER
12-23
Geneva
Second World Climate Conference
WMO/UNEP/UNESCO/ICSU
good
July 5, 1990
Professor Bert Bolin
Department of Meteorology
file
Arrhenius Laboratory
University of Stockholm
S10691 Stockholm
Sweden
Dear Bert:
My congratulations on the careful and thoughtful effort you have
put into drafting both the IPCC executive summary and the
overview and conclusions. I suspect that the meeting in Geneva
was a useful preview for what to expect in Sundsvall! The draft
documents that we recently received from the Secretariat
incorporate many of the comments that the Drafting Committee
raised in our meeting. We hope that careful consideration of the
comments made in this additional iteration on the draft will save
time and expedite consensus.
We have reviewed the draft documents as thoroughly as the tight
deadline permits and offer both a reworked executive summary and
detailed comments on the overview and conclusions. Some of the
items in the enclosures reflect concerns about tone or policy
implications and will require that substantive revisions be made,
while others address typographical or stylistic problems which,
if corrected, will improve readability and make for more lucid
discussions in Sundsvall.
Because these documents will be used by ministers and heads of
state to establish global policy on climate change, they must be
clear and convincing and flow logically for the lay reader.
Improving the readability in English will also simplify the task
of the translators. Ideally, the drafts should undergo a
thorough English-language editing. Recognizing that the time
constraint precludes this step, we have offered extensive
suggested revisions in the enclosures.
The purpose of this letter is to highlight our key concerns and
suggestions which warrant your attention. It is essential that
the plenary documents clearly distinguish between what is known
and what is projected or hypothesized. This was the task
mandated to IPCC. The three Working Groups have labored to
strike a balance; that balance must be reflected in the plenary
reports.
2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The executive summary currently lacks, but must contain, a
careful statement acknowledging the significant uncertainties
inherent in the underlying science. The proposed redraft must
contain the following statement regarding uncertainties taken
from page 2 of the WG I policymakers summary:
There are many uncertainties in our predictions particularly
with regard to the timing, magnitude and regional patterns
of climate change, due to our incomplete understanding of
the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, clouds, oceans,
and polar ice sheets.
The executive summary must strike a balance in its treatment of
observed warming over the past 100 years and predicted warming.
This can be accomplished by including the statement contained in
the WG I policymakers summary (p. 30, last paragraph), as
follows:
The size of the warming over the last century is broadly
consistent with the predictions of climate models, but is
also the same magnitude as natural climate variability. If
the sole cause of the observed warming were the human-made
greenhouse effect, then the implied climate sensitivity
would be near the lower end of the range inferred from the
models. The observed increase could be largely due to
natural variability; alternatively this variability and
other man-made factors could have offset a still larger man-
made greenhouse warming.
There must be a more balanced presentation in the science summary
of natural versus anthropogenic fluxes of greenhouse gases,
notable CO2. As I noted in Geneva, we should not be afraid to
place the entire story before the reader, especially since it may
become essential to consider what steps might be taken to modify
the "natural" CO2 cycle, should the situation turn out to be more
serious even than we now expect. This can be done by including
the following short paragraph:
While the annual anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide
are only about 4 percent of the total annual exchange of
carbon dioxide by natural processes, they have been large
enough to modify significantly the natural balance since
pre-industrial times. Stabilization of atmospheric carbon
dioxide concentrations can be achieved by either a 60-80%
reduction in anthropogenic emissions, or an increase in
natural sinks by 2-3%.
3
OVERVIEW AND CONCLUSIONS
Scenarios
The Emission Scenarios A-D should be defined in a separate
section at the beginning of the document. The explanation of
how they were formulated should be taken from the WG 3 report,
Section 3.1 For example, for Scenario A:
Scenario A assumes that few or no steps are taken to limit
greenhouse gas emissions. Energy use and clearing of
tropical forest and the amount of biomass per hectare are
low and fossil fuels, in particular coal, remain the world's
primary energy source. The Montreal Protocol comes into
effect but without strengthening and with less than 100
percent compliance. Under this scenario, the equivalent of a
doubling of pre-industrial CO2 levels occurs, according to
WG I, by around 2025.
We strongly suggest that the Business-as-Usual Scenario should be
called Scenario A. At a minimum the designation should be
"Scenario A (Business as Usual) "
Similarly, the Reference Scenario should be explained with regard
to its purpose, with clarification that it is a scenario and not
a plan, and the data on which it is based. The language should
be drawn from WG III report, section 3.2.
Greenhouse Gases
This draft continues to focus on CO2 to the virtual exclusion of
other greenhouse gases, notably methane, so that the reader is
left with the impression that CO2 reduction on the anthropogenic
side, and reforestation on the natural side, are the only real
options to consider. This does not reflect the conclusions of
the AFOS report of WG III. To balance the presentation, lines 21
through 34 on page 17 need to be replaced with the following:
Because the sources of other greenhouse gases, most notably
methane, but also including nitrous oxides and ozone, are
diverse and the quantitative importance of each of their
sources not well known at present, emissions reductions may
prove difficult to achieve and the effectiveness of
different control strategies hard to evaluate.
Methane emissions arise primarily from agricultural, energy
and waste management activities. Control strategies may
include improved agricultural practices; use of low-emitting
rice strains; and prevention, or recapture for energy
recovery, of emissions from mine shafts, pipelines, and
landfills.
4
Natural Sources and Sinks of Greenhouse Gases
As stated earlier, the document must more explicitly discuss the
natural sources and sinks of carbon dioxide, and uncertainties
associated with the anthropogenic fluxes. The section (page 4,
lines 22 to 30) needs to be expanded. This can most easily be
accomplished by using Figure 1 (carbon cycle) on page 8 from
Section 1 on the IPCC WG I scientific assessment, and the
following text:
The anthropogenic flux of carbon dioxide is about 6+0.6 Gt C
per year from the combustion of fossil fuels, plus an
additional 0.6 - 2.5 Gt C per year associated with tropical
deforestation and changing land-use. These fluxes are much
smaller than the natural exchange fluxes (about 200 Gt C per
year) which occur between the atmosphere and the terrestrial
biota and between the atmosphere and the oceans (Figure I).
However, while the anthropogenic fluxes are much smaller
than the natural fluxes, they have been large enough to
modify significantly the natural balance since pre-
industrial times as evidence by: (i) a 25% increase in
atmospheric carbon dioxide during the last 200 years; (ii)
an increase in the interhemispheric gradient of atmospheric
carbon dioxide; (iii) trends in the atmospheric isotopic
composition of carbon dioxide. Stabilization of atmospheric
carbon dioxide can be achieved by a 60-80% decrease in the
anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide or by an increase
of about 2-3% in the natural sinks of carbon dioxide.
Comprehensive Approach
There must be further mention of the comprehensive approach to
any possible solutions to the greenhouse gas problem. The
document must state that all greenhouse gases whose atmospheric
concentrations are increasing must be considered together and
that this can be done through the concept of greenhouse warming
potentials (GWPs). A short section, such as the following, needs
to be inserted on page 15 line 35:
All greenhouse gases whose atmospheric concentrations are
increasing because of human activities contribute to the
enhanced greenhouse effect. Therefore, in view of the
interrelationship among all greenhouse gases, their sources
and sinks, when considering approaches to limit
anthropogenic increases in radiative forcing it is essential
to take a comprehensive approach to reductions in greenhouse
gas emissions, i.e., all gases should be treated
collectively (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, CFCs,
HCFCs, HFC, and ozone and its precursors). To evaluate
possible policy options, it is useful to know the relative
radiative effect (and, hence potential climate effect) of
equal emissions of each of the greenhouse gases. Working
5
Group I developed the concept of relative global warming
potentials (GWPs) which take into account the differing
times that gases remain in the atmosphere. Table X lists
the GWPs for several key greenhouse gases, together with
their 1990 emissions. (Table at the bottom of page 18 of WG
I Policymakers Summary should be added here.)
I cannot overemphasize the fact that a considered response to
these matters is most essential if we are to have any hope of
reaching consensus in Sundsvall. Please call if there is
anything further that I can do to help in reaching this most
important consensus.
Best regards,
Frederick M. Bernthal
enclosures:
1) reworked executive summary
2) specific comments on overview and conclusions
(to follow on July 6, 1990)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Science
*
There is a natural greenhouse effect (from water vapour,
carbon dioxide and other naturally occurring gases) which keeps
the Earth warmer and more habitable than it would otherwise be.
*
In assessing the scientific basis for concern regarding
possible global climate change, it is important to distinguish:
(a) what we know with certainty, (b) what we calculate with
confidence, (c) what is predicted by current models, and (d) what
our best judgment is on matters that are more uncertain.
*
Over many thousands of years there have been significant
changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and global
climate, such as the Ice Ages, and the mechanisms causing these
changes are not yet well understood.
*
Emissions resulting from human activities are substantially
increasing the atmospheric concentrations of certain greenhouse
gases -- carbon dioxide, methane, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and
nitrous oxide. These increases will enhance the greenhouse
effect, resulting on average in an additional warming of the
Earth's surface.
*
The total increase of greenhouse gas concentrations
attributable to human activities is at present equivalent to an
increase of carbon dioxide since pre-industrial times of about 50
percent.
*
The human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide can be measured
against the background of much larger natural sources and sinks.
Annual human-caused net carbon dioxide emissions are about 4
percent of the total annual exchange of carbon dioxide by natural
processes. However, while the human-caused fluxes are much
smaller than the natural fluxes, they have been large enough to
modify significantly the natural balance since pre-industrial
times. Stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide
concentrations can be achieved by either a 60-80 percent
reduction in anthropogenic emissions, or an increase in natural
sinks by 2-3 percent.
*
There are many uncertainties in our predictions,
particularly with regard to the timing, magnitude and regional
patterns of climate change, due to our incomplete understanding
of sources and sinks of greenhouse gases: clouds, oceans, and
polar ice sheets.
*
Based on current model results, we predict, under the IPCC
Scenario A (Business as Usual) emissions of greenhouse gases, a
rate of increase of global mean temperature during the next
century of about 0.3 degrees C per decade (with an uncertainty
range of 0.2-0.5 degrees C per decade) ; this is greater than that
2
seen over the past 10,000 years. This will result in a likely
increase in global mean temperature of about 1 degree C above the
present value by 2025 (about 2° C above that in the pre-
industrial period) and 3 degrees C before the end of the next
century (about 4° C above that in the pre-industrial period).
*
The oceans act as a heat sink and thus delay the full effect
of greenhouse warming; the realized (actual) temperature change
is at any given time estimated by the computer models to be
between 50 and 80% of the eventual committed temperature change
when the climate system has reached equilibrium.
*
Because of the long atmospheric lifetimes of some greenhouse
gases, if the human-caused emissions were stopped, the greenhouse
gas concentrations are expected to decrease only slowly, i.e.,
over a period of decades to centuries.
*
The size of the warming over the last century is broadly
consistent with the predictions of climate models, but is also of
the same magnitude as natural climate variability. If the sole
cause of the observed warming were the human-made greenhouse
effect, then the implied climate sensitivity would be near the
lower end of the range inferred from the models. The observed
increase could be largely due to natural variability;
alternatively, this variability and other human-caused factors
could have offset a still larger human-caused greenhouse warming.
*
The confidence in regional estimates of climate change as a
result of a global average warming is low, especially for the
changes of precipitation and seasonal variation.
Impacts
*
Because of the lack of accurate estimates of the expected
regional changes of climate, precise predictions of the regional
impacts of climate change cannot yet be made; however, certain
general conclusions may be drawn.
*
If no preventive measures are taken to limit the further
increase of human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases (Scenario
A), an average rate of global mean sea level rise of about 6 cm
per decade is projected by computer models over the next century,
with an uncertainty range of 3-10 cm per decade.
*
Although studies have not yet conclusively determined
whether on average global agricultural potential would increase
or decrease, changes of climate would have important effects
regionally:
o
Some current forests will mature and decline in a
3
climate to which they are increasingly poorly adapted, while
others may eventually develop elsewhere.
O
Natural terrestrial ecosystems could be markedly
influenced because the rates of climate change are likely to
be faster than the ability of some species to adjust.
O
Enhanced carbon dioxide concentrations in the
atmosphere might enhance growth of certain plants.
*
Comparatively small changes of climate can cause large water
resources changes. The availability of water and biomass might
be significantly affected, either positively or negatively, and
both are major energy resources in many developing countries.
Response Strategies
*
A major dilemma of the issue of climate change due to the
increasing emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere is
that some actions may be required well before many of the
specific issues that are raised can be resolved by further
research.
*
The long-lived greenhouse gases -- carbon dioxide, CFCs and
nitrous oxide -- would require reductions in emissions from human
activities by more than 60% in order to stabilize concentrations
at today's levels. Methane would require a 15-20 percent
reduction.
*
The CFCs are already being eliminated to prevent their
continued destruction of the stratospheric ozone layer. This
action is also a most effective measure to slow down the rate of
predicted global warming. The CFCs will probably be partially
replaced by HCFCs and HFCs, which are weaker greenhouse gases,
but every effort should be made to find other replacements which
have little or no greenhouse warming potential or ozone depletion
potential.
*
Assuming a projected increase of the world population to
about 8 billion by 2030, the present global average emissions of
carbon dioxide of about 1.45 ton of carbon per capita would have
to be reduced to about 0.35 ton of carbon per capita in order to
stabilize carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere.
*
If the present rate of deforestation were reduced to about
half of the present rate, this could reduce the rate of increase
of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by 5-15%; reforestation of 12
million hectares per year during the next forty years would slow
down the rate of increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
during this period by an additional approximately 10% compared
with the present rate.
4
Roles of Industrialized and Developing Countries
*
Industrialized and developing countries have a common
responsibility in dealing with the issue of potential climate
change. The former should take lead in two ways:
1) to limit climate change by adapting their own economies
in accordance with future agreements to limit emissions,
2) to cooperate with developing countries in international
action, without standing in the way of the latter's
development.
*
Sustainable development requires the proper concern for
environmental protection as the necessary basis for continued
economic growth. It will increasingly. have to take into account
the issue of climate change. It is imperative that the right
balance be struck between economic growth and environmental
objectives.
*
The developing countries are rapidly increasing their
emissions of greenhouse gases in striving to improve their living
standards. Recognizing the poverty that prevails among the
populations of developing countries, it is natural that achieving
economic growth is given priority by them. A full partnership of
all nations of the world, taking into account their different
financial and technical resources, is essential to the
development of a strategy to deal with the climate change issue.
Options
*
The potentially serious consequences of climate change give
sufficient reasons to begin by adopting response strategies that
can be justified immediately in their own right, even in the face
of significant uncertainties. These include:
-- elimination of CFC emissions, and careful assessment of
the greenhouse gas potential of any proposed
substitutes
-- use of cleaner, more efficient energy sources, with
resulting lower emissions of greenhouse gases
-
improved energy end use efficiency
-
improved forest management
-
review of agricultural practices
*
There is no single quick-fix technological option for
limiting net greenhouse gas emissions. A comprehensive strategy
addressing all aspects of the problem and reflecting economic,
social and environmental costs and benefits is necessary.
*
Consistent with this strategy, consideration of measures for
adapting to global climate change should be begun as soon as
possible, particularly with regard to disaster preparedness
5
policies, coastal zone management and control measures for
desertification, since many of these responses may be justified
in their own right.
*
Individual nations, or groups of nations, should consider
and evaluate appropriate actions to limit as much as possible net
emissions and thus assist in the prevention of an acceleration of
greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.
*
In the long term perspective, work should begin on
evaluating the impacts of climate change and its costs on the one
hand, and economic and social costs and benefits and
practicalities of reductions in emissions on the other. This
evaluation should take into account what might be an acceptable
level of climate change and reflect the changes of scientific and
economic understanding and technological capabilities.
*
It is important that any potential measures to adapt to or
limit global climate change be as economically efficient and
cost-effective as possible, while taking into account important
social implications. In addition, adaptation and limitation
strategies must be considered as an integrated package.
*
In general, environmental objectives can be achieved either
through regulations requiring the use of a specific technology or
attainment of specified goals, or through economic instruments
such as emissions fees, subsidies, sanctions, tradeable permits,
or a comprehensive system that might address all greenhouse gas
sources and sinks. Market based economic instruments encourage
limitations in emissions by those who can achieve them at least
cost. Careful and substantive analysis of the implications of
such instruments is needed.
*
Economic instruments, through their encouragement of
flexible selection of abatement measures, frequently offer the
possibility of achieving environmental improvements at lower cost
than regulatory mechanisms. Unlike many regulations, they tend
to encourage innovation and the development of improved
technologies and practices for reducing emissions. Economic
mechanisms also have the potential to provide the signals
necessary for more environmentally sensitive operation of
markets. It is unlikely, however, that economic instruments will
be applicable to all circumstances.
Future Work
*
The measures that may be necessary require a high degree of
international cooperation, with due respect for national
sovereignty of states. To assist in that process, international
negotiations on a framework convention on climate change should
start as quickly as possible.
6
*
The IPCC recommends that research regarding the climate
change issue in general, and the international economic
implications in particular, be intensified.
*
Because climate change would affect, either directly or
indirectly, almost every sector of society, and because important
policy response options will have to be developed against the
background of uncertainty, broad global understanding of the
issue will facilitate the adoption and the implementation of such
response options as deemed necessary and appropriate. Further
efforts to achieve such global understanding are urgently needed.
*
The IPCC appeals to multilateral and bilateral funding
organizations to assist developing nations in their efforts to
take part in the international cooperation with regard to the
climate change issue and to do so without awaiting the outcome of
future negotiations on a climate convention. It further appeals
urgently to governments for continuing and increased
contributions to the IPCC Trust Fund so that the work of the IPCC
can continue.
DRAFT
2-15-90
The Honorable Richard B. Cheney
Secretary of Defense
The Pentagon
Washington, D.C. 20301
Dear Secretary Cheney:
As you are probably aware, President Bush, on February 5, 1990, announced at the
United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that he will host a
White House Conference on Science and Economic Research Related to Global Change.
The Conference is scheduled for April 17-18, 1990, in Washington, D.C. It will
convene ministerial level officials from seventeen nations including the U.S.,
and bring together the essential disciplines of science, economics, and the
environment.
The President has appointed me, Michael Boskin (Chairman of the Council of
Economic Advisers), and Michael Deland (Chairman of the Council on Environmental
Quality) as co-chairmen of this Conference. The task he has given us is to
structure an international conference that will be "an important further step
in a joint international approach to the problems and opportunities with which
our global environment confronts us."
I have asked Dr. Robert Corell to act as Conference Director and Dr. Franmarie
Keel to act as Conference Coordinator. They have identified key requirements
and I would ask your help in meeting these specific needs:
Most critical is the need for an executive officer to pull this effort together.
I am aware of your Defense and the Environment Initiative, and the work Tom
Harvey has done in organizing the effort. This and his experience on the Hill
and in the White House are the skills we need to make the President's initiative
a success. I believe there is a direct linkage between what the President wants
to do and what your initiative is all about. If it is at all possible, I would
ask that LTC Harvey be made available to help with this Conference.
In addition, I request that DOD provide a company grade action officer, data
management capability (operators and equipment), two vehicles and operators (one
van and one sedan), and use of the Old Guard for escort duties during the
Conference. Dr. Keel will provide additional details concerning these items.
The effective dates of this project requirement will be 19 February to 30 April
1990.
To accomplish what needs to be done in the timeframe available will require a
significant cooperative effort. I hope I can count on your support to make the
President's initiative one that will have a lasting positive impact across the
globe and keep our Nation at the forefront of these vital issues.
Thank you for your consideration.
Yours sincerely,
D. Allan Bromley
Assistant to the President
DRAFT
The Honorable James Baker
2-15-90
Secretary of State
2201 C Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20520
Dear Secretary Baker:
As you are probably aware, President Bush, on February 5, 1990, announced at the
United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that he will host a
White House Conference on Science and Economic Research Related to Global Change.
The Conference is scheduled for April 17-18, 1990, in Washington, D.C. It will
convene ministerial level officials from seventeen nations including the U.S.,
and bring together the essential disciplines of science, economics, and the
environment.
The President has appointed me, Michael Boskin (Chairman of the Council of
Economic Advisers), and Michael Deland (Chairman of the Council on Environmental
Quality) as co-chairmen of this Conference. The task he has given us is to
structure a multinational conference that will be "an important further step in
a joint international approach to the problems and opportunities with which our
global environment confronts us."
I have asked Dr. Robert Corell to act as Conference Director and Dr. Franmarie
Keel to act as Conference Coordinator. They have identified key requirements
and I would ask your help in meeting these specific needs.
Accurate communication is crucial for the success of this meeting and this means
excellent translation support. I would ask that the State Department provide
translation and transcription capability during the pre-conference, conference,
and immediate post-conference phases.
I would be most appreciative if you would agree to be the opening speaker on the
morning of April 17th.
In addition, I request that the State Department provide a liaison officer, two
secretaries/word processors, a protocol officer, and transportation resources
to support the conference planning and execution process.
The effective dates of this project requirement will be from 19 February 1990
to 30 April 1990. Dr. Keel will provide additional details concerning these
items and she can be reached through my office.
To accomplish what needs to be done in the timeframe available will require a
significant cooperative effort. I hope I can count on your support to make the
President's initiative one that will have a lasting positive impact across the
globe and keep our Nation at the forefront of these vital issues.
Thank you for your consideration.
Yours sincerely,
D. Allan Bromley
Assistant to the President
DRAFT BUDGET
WHITE HOUSE CONFERENCE ON
SCIENCE AND ECONOMICS RESEARCH RELATING TO GLOBAL CHANGE
At Marriott's Georgetown Leavey Conference Center and Guest House
Washington, DC
April 17-18, 1990
LABOR - DIRECT COST TO PROJECT
Conference Coordinator (Keel; 2.75 mo. at $6,958)
$19,135
Conference Director (Corell, with NSF bearing one-half
salary; 3.5 mo. at $3,479)
12,177
Executive Assistant (3 mo. at $3,333)
10,000
Facilitation Team
51,000
LABOR - COST TO BE BORNE BY AGENCIES
Two Secretaries/Word Processors (fulltime, 3 mos.) [State]
Two Data Processing Personnel (fulltime, 3 mos.) [Defense]
Ten Translators (in six languages -- English, French, Spanish,
Russian, Chinese, and Japanese -- for 2.5 days each) [State]
One Executive Officer (parttime) [Defense]
One Protocol Officer (parttime) [State]
One Liaison Officer (parttime) [State]
One Action Officer (fulltime) [Defense]
Four Action Officers (parttime) [Economic Policy Council, CEQ, EPA,
and NSF)
Two Drivers (fulltime; with one sedan and one van) [Defense]
CONFERENCE PREPARATION
Letterhead and Envelope Art/Printing
1,900
Planning Meetings (twice a week)
9,500
Conference Invitation and Brochure Art/Printing
15,000
Initial Mailing
20,000
Interim Mailings
9,000
blic and Media Outreach Program
35,000
Information Support (including data base management;
preparation of fact sheets; etc.)
23,500
HOTEL COSTS
Two continental breakfasts at $10 each times 250 people
5,000
1
Two lunches at $30 each times 250 people
15,000
Four coffee breaks at $5 each times 250 people
5,000
200 hotel rooms at $100 for two nights
40,000
Meeting rooms and hospitality suite, at $1,450 for two da.
2,900
Hospitality suite service, two days
5,000
Media support rooms
1,000
CONFERENCE OPERATIONS
Conference Protocol (meeting, escorting, etc.)
21,000
Conference Management/Logistics (on-site)
24,000
Audiovisual (videotaping, remote screens)
21,500
Audio Taping/Transcription of Proceedings
5,800
Duplication (including of materials prepared for and
brought by participants)
60,000
Speaker Support
20,000
Dinner at State Department
26,000
Transportation Support
10,000
1500
POST-CONFERENCE COSTS
Conference Report Writing/Editing
15,000
Conference Report Art/Printing
30,000
White House Briefings/Materials on Conference Results
32,000
Follow-Up Mailings (including of conference report,
going to a larger audience than conference
participants)
50,000
Labor for Post-Conference Activities
20,000
MISCELLANEOUS SUPPORT COSTS
Office Space (fully serviced including rent, phone
system, and furnishings -- but excluding computers
and other office equipment)
16,500
Office Equipment Rental/Support/Service (including
computers, printers, typewriters, copier, facsimile
machine, and answering machine), at $2,000 per month
6,000
Deliveries/Couriers
5,000
Mailing, Miscellaneous
3,000
Office Supplies (including computer supplies)
10,000
Publications and Maps
8,000
Desk Top Publishing
15,000
Telephone/Telex/Fax (including for international)
30,000
Travel (for conference organizers)
21,000
Consultants, Miscellaneous
22,000
Miscellaneous
Press Rits
$30.00
475
25,000
TOTAL
$776,912
2
THE
NTERPARLIAMENTARY
CONFERENCE ON THE
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
April 29-May 2, 1990
Washington, DC
Legislative Strategy Papers
ZZI
Final
for my friend Alan Bromley
with great respect,
he Done
Printed on recycled paper
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Working Group Co-Chairs
page 1
Legislative Strategies - A Preamble
page 3
Global Climate Change
- Resolation
page 11
- Legisslative Strategies
page 13
Ozone Depletion
- Resolation
page 22
- Legisslative Strategies
page 24
Sustainable Development
- Resolation
page 29
- Legisslative Strategies
page 34
Population
- Resolation
page 39
- Legisslative Strategies
page 42
Deforestation and Desertification
- Resolation
page 47
- Legisslative Strategies
page 51
Safeguarding Oceans and Water Resources
- Resolation
page 56
- Legisslative Strategies
page 60
Preservation of Biological Diversity
- Resolation
page 76
- Legisslative Strategies
page78
Delegates to the ICGE
page 82
Working Group Co-Chairs
Global Climate Change
Al Gore
United States Senate
USA
James Miruka Owuor
National Assembly
Kenya
Ozone Depletion
John Chafee
United States Senate
USA
Monika Ganseforth
Mitglied des Deutschen Bundestages
Federal Republic of Germany
Sustainable Development
John Heinz
United States Senate
USA
Fabio Feldmann
Camara Dos Deputados
Brazil
Population
Timothy Wirth
United States Senate
USA
Attiya Inayatullah
Member of Parliament
Pakistan
Deforestation and Desertification
Rudy Boschwitz
United States Senate
USA
Felicito C. Payumo
House of Representatives
Republic of the Philippines
1
Safeguarding Oceans and Water Resources
John Kerry
United States Senate
USA
Richard Northey
Member of Parliment
New Zealand
Preservation of Biological Diversity
Max Baucus
United States Senate
USA
Alexey V. Yablokov,
Deputy Chairman, Committee on Environment and Rational Use of
Natural Resources, Supreme Soviet
USSR
2
LEGISLATIVE STRATEGIES-A PREAMBLE
This document represents a general consensus of the conference; it is understood, however, that
signatories to the Declaration of Environmental of Interdependence do not necessarily endorse
every resolution and strategy incorporated herein.
I. State of the World Environment
The earth today is in the early stages of a global ecological crisis of historic and
unprecedented proportions. Citizens and governments in every nation confront
environmental problems that test political leadership at all levels-grassroots,
local, national and international. The survival of basic life support systems of our
planet is at risk if humanity cannot muster the will and harness the effort to
meet these challenges.
The environmental problems facing the world encompass every economic and
social sector-business, industry, agriculture, health, education-and every
discipline, from economics to biology, from ecology to engineering. Many of
these problems will require the nations of the world to agree on comprehensive
multilateral treaties and conventions.
However, it must be accepted that these kinds of problems result from
cumulative effects of actions taken within national boundaries. While working
urgently to formulate the needed international agreements, the world's nations
must at the same time, individually and collectively, accept responsibility for the
environmentally degrading activities within their own borders, and begin to take
action on their own initiative. This process will be greatly facilitated by
communication among nations, sharing knowledge about possible options, and
mutual assistance. This process can and should begin today, even before major
international agreements are in place.
One thing is transcendently clear: the world's environment is under threat from
many quarters, and the need to take action to reduce these threats is urgent. The
appropriate responses will be in large part the product of deliberations in these
nations' legislative bodies, and will be embodied in the laws that these bodies
adopt. Parliamentarians around the world, representing citizens who are deeply
concerned about these problems, are increasingly called upon to take leadership
in response to these challenges.
II. Purpose of the Conference
The Interparliamentary Conference on the Global Environment provides an
opportunity for parliamentarians from nations around the world to begin this
process of deliberation, seeking shared concerns and common solutions.
Actions that can be taken at both the national and international levels have been
discussed, with the purpose of developing as comprehensive a list as possible of
environmental policy options that are appropriate for action by parliaments
around the world. Steps have been taken to ensure effective continuing
communications and relationships among the world's legislative bodies to
encourage prompt and appropriate actions to be taken.
3
III. Conference Issues
Many of today's pressing global environmental problems have long been
recognized by scientists and environmental professionals; the warnings were
sounded 20 years ago in a landmark declaration from the 1972 United Nations
Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm, Sweden. What has
changed in recent years is the increased public awareness of these problems and
the increased sense of cascading crises resulting from the exponential growth of
population, pollution, and resource degradation.
The Conference is organized to consider seven issue areas, chosen for their signal
importance and the fact that they are global in scope, possessing enormous inertia
and momentum. Although many environmental issues are international in
character, these seven issues have particular significance beyond geographic and
temporal immediacy: global climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion,
deforestation and desertification, loss of biological diversity, degradation of
oceans and water resources, population growth, and sustainable development.
Some of these issues represent the impacts or results of human activities that are
proving to be unsustainable in the long-, or even in some cases, in the
immediate-term. Global climate change, resulting from increasing "greenhouse
gas" emissions, and depletion of stratospheric ozone, attributable to industrial
and commercial chemicals, both reflect the unsustainable "affluent/overload"
effects of developed economies and advanced economic activity. Many developed
countries have already experienced extreme deforestation, desertification and
losses of biological diversity, and many developing countries are following the
same dangerous path. Oceans and losses of water resources through pollution
and overuse result from overloads from human activities in both developed and
developing areas. As noted, population growth, underlying the constant
expansion of the human activities that cause these environmental stresses,
contributes to all of these problems.
As a result of the interrelated nature of ecological systems, these problems that
have been considered separately and on a fragmented basis can now be addressed
through the diffuse and interconnected causes and effects of potential climate
change. Consequently, policymakers who seek measures to protect the earth's
atmosphere can and must deal with some of these long-standing international
environmental issues in a new and urgent context.
It is important and desirable that action on these environmental problems begin
without delay, and that we immediately begin discussion of measures
appropriate for individual nations. Because ozone depletion, deforestation and
desertification, loss of biological diversity, and degradation of oceans and water
resources have largely resulted from the pressures of overpopulation and
unsustainable development, and are cumulatively leading to global climate
change, actions dealing with climate change can best be reviewed in the context of
the population and sustainable development policies of each country. These
issues must be addressed together and not in isolation. Population control and
sustainable development will provide the foundation for a response to these
problems, and will pose new directions for human activities that will enable
economic activities with fewer unwelcome or unsustainable side-effects.
4
There are two faces to unsustainable development: one is the unsustainability of
industrial and energy-use activity, concentrated for the most part in affluent or
developed economies, in which ecological systems are overloaded by rapid
consumption and waste products. The other is the unsustainability of poverty, in
which rapidly growing populations put ever-increasing pressure on meager
resources, overexploiting and eventually exhausting land, water, forest and other
resources.
The first of these requires strategies focusing on retrofitting, replacing, and
eliminating existing infrastructure and means of doing business. The second calls
for the incorporation of sustainable concepts into new activities and methods.
Both are costly and difficult, and will require significant planning and forecasting.
Both require a greater awareness of the ways that human activities are affecting
the earth's life support systems and critical natural resources, and finding new
methods of economic production that protect both the environmental and
economic sustainability of human activities. Both will also provide many
benefits and improvements in the quality of life on earth, beyond those directed
at environmental improvement alone.
Global Climate Change
Citizens around the world have become increasingly aware that human activities
have changed the earth's atmosphere in ways that may threaten human well-
being and even the earth's basic life support systems. The U.N. General Assembly
has recognized climate change as a common concern of mankind. Climate is an
essential condition which sustains life on earth. The fact that emissions from
industrial, transportation, residential and consumer activities have already
resulted in measurable changes in the concentration of carbon dioxide and other
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere-and could result in long-term global
climate change-has produced urgent calls for international action to reduce
human impacts on the earth's atmosphere. Even more frightening is the
realization that climate change involves massive inertia, and that even drastic
reductions in emissions today may not diminish climate change for some time.
Many nations will want to ask their citizens to change habitual and accepted ways
of living and conducting business only after international agreements have been
achieved on the needed actions. At the same time, however, many of the changes
necessary to prevent and deal with global climate change are beneficial in their
right and would be desirable in any case. For example, actions to reduce
emissions through enhanced energy efficiency may also reduce dependence on
foreign sources of fuel, reduce acid rain problems, improve health conditions in
urban centers, protect infrastructures, and save money in the long run.
Stratospheric Ozone Depletion
Earlier warnings that a number of industrial chemicals might result in depletion
of the stratospheric ozone layer were substantiated in the mid-1980s by scientific
findings that a large "hole" had developed in the ozone layer above Antarctica.
Later research revealed that the causes of the creation of that hole were directly
linked to a group of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) used as refrigerants, foam agents,
and aerosols. In addition, thinning of stratospheric ozone has been observed at all
5
latitudes. Reductions in ozone levels have now been found in the stratosphere
above the North Pole.
Urgent international negotiations have already produced the Vienna
Convention on Protection of the Ozone Layer (1985), and the 1987 Montreal
Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. However, parties to these
agreements have since agreed that a more rapid phase-out of harmful ozone-
depleting chemicals is called for, and additional negotiations will soon be
underway. Developed countries must work toward the most rapid development
and deployment of CFC substitutes, while assuring the environmental safety of
the substitutes, and developing countries must seek out methods of achieving
development goals within the constraints posed by threats to the atmosphere
from CFCs, and similar ozone-destroying compounds such as the halons, methyl
chloroform, carbon tetrachloride, and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs).
Deforestation and Desertification
Loss of the world's forests and productive agricultural land has been accelerating
over the past several decades. These losses have occurred all over the world.
Many developed countries have experienced drastic deforestation through the
creation of agricultural lands and urban high-density communities. Large
sections of the land has since been allowed to convert back into second-growth
immature forests, lacking in biodiversity and resources.
Deforestation pressures are especially severe in tropical areas because of the
pressures created by expanding populations and unsustainable methods of land-
use. Tropical forests are of special concern for several reasons: they occur in
extensive systems that are thought to play a key role in climate and regional
weather patterns; they contain a rich store of biological diversity on earth; the
cleared land cannot sustain agricultural activity; and in many areas they are
under heavy pressure from incoming settlers who clear huge forest areas by
burning, making substantial contributions to the greenhouse gases that cause
global climate change.
Because of the contributions such burning makes to total human-caused
emissions of greenhouse gases, because of the loss of biological diversity when
large habitat areas are burned or cut, and because the resulting alternative uses of
the land are usually not sustainable (soils are usually poor and do not support
either long-term agriculture or grazing), global attention has been focused on
stemming the loss of tropical forests and on the need for reforestation and
sustainable management of timber cutting operations.
In many countries, loss of vegetative cover leads to desertification or loss of
productive capacity in large areas. In savannah and agricultural land, overuse,
overgrazing and poor agricultural and irrigation practices also contribute to
desertification. These problems are occurring in both developed and developing
countries. The cumulative effect of the loss of natural resources in many
countries has an impact on the global economy as well as the global
environment.
6
Biological Diversity
As wilderness areas around the earth are subjected to encroachment by human
settlements and agriculture, native species of plants and animals in these habitats
are rapidly being extinguished. Larger animals have become the victims of direct
overexploitation through hunting or poaching, and are threatened with
extinction. Genetic erosion in agricultural fields and in husbandry is also a major
threat to the global biodiversity.
No firm figures exist on the number of species on earth today, but it is estimated
that there are some 30 million species of plants, insects, animals and other life
forms, of which about 1.5 million have been identified. Some experts state that
within the next ten years, if tropical forests continue to be destroyed at current
rates, some 15 percent of all plant species will be eliminated by the year 2000.
Many species also face extinction in developed countries through the loss of
habitat, exposure to toxins, and over-exploitation.
Such losses are important to humanity for many reasons. In the complex
interaction of ecological systems that support life, loss of even small links in the
biological chain can doom the entire system. Because of which have symbiotic
interrelationships, continuation of the system depends on the presence of most
of the organisms in the system, Moreover, medicines and pharmaceuticals are
heavily dependent on specialized chemistry found in living organisms. Loss of
these wild organisms could destroy the possibility of potential pharmaceuticals to
cure human disease or form the basis of ecologically benign chemicals.
The domesticated plants that form the basis for the world's agriculture must be
replenished by infusions of stock from wild plants from time to time. Some of
the "raw material" of biotechnology is to be found in the genetic riches of living
organisms that are being eliminated in the current wave of extinctions, described
as the most rapid loss of species since the mass extinctions of eras before human
life on the Earth.
Oceans and Water Resources
Pollution from human sources threatens future use and productivity of both
oceans and freshwater sources. Sources of this pollution span the entire spectrum
of economic activity, from agricultural runoff that silts up and pollutes rivers
and marine estuaries to industrial and urban sources that produce toxic
pollutants that foul not only shorelines but water resources used for human
consumption, groundwater and surface waters.
Many of these oceans and water resources problems cross national boundaries or
are global in scope. Pollution threatens ocean waters, as does overharvesting of
marine resources that provide an essential and irreplaceable food source for
many nations. Marine fisheries produced 84.5 million tons in 1987, a fourfold
increase since 1951. The upper limit of fisheries yields may be around 100 million
tons, according to some estimates, but pollution and loss of habitat may mean
that goal will never be achieved.
Water resource scarcity afflicts growing regions of the world and threatens to
increase political tensions in water-short areas. Population pressures and
agricultural activities are increasing fresh-water demands, causing water tables to
7
be drawn down and acquifers to be depleted. Nations whose rivers receive heavy
pollutant loads from upstream neighbors also feel the need for cooperative
mechanisms to alleviate their water quality problems.
As pollution from oil spills and land-based sources continues to increase, concern
around the globe is rising about these abuses of the global oceans "commons."
Mechanisms are being sought to increase international cooperation in stemming
ocean pollution.
Population Growth
Human population growth has been a leading cause of increased pressure on the global
environment. Over the past 50 years, the world's population has been increasing at
unprecedented speed. Current estimates project an eventual levelling off of the population
in the next century at between 8 and 14 billion people. Current trends are moving towards
the upper estimate.
Many of the world's environmental problems arise from practices that are insignificant if
done in limited areas by modest numbers of people. However, it is the cumulative effects of
these practices, increasing exponentially with the human population growth, that causes
the acute ecological impacts the world is now seeing. In this way, demographic trends,
together with the production and consumption patterns chosen by individuals and societies,
are a critical underlying cause of many environmental dilemmas facing the world.
A necessary pre-condition for addressing the global population issue is the universal
availability of education about family planning methods, education about why family
planning information, counselling and services are important, and access to reproductive
health care and services. Assuming that this precondition exists, efforts to address
population planning should focus on two necessary factors.
First, childhood survival rates should be increased to levels which cross the threshold
necessary for the demographic transition to low birth rates and low death rates. Most
countries with high rates of population growth also have low childhood survival rates and
this basic condition must be changed.
Secondly, the status and education level of women must be increased. Until women have
some control over their destinies and the knowledge to make responsible choices for their
future, family planning efforts will be ineffective.
Both of these activities must take place in the context of national economic development
and the concept of environmental sustainability. Long-term economic and political stability
is likely to be achieved in countries where human resource development and equitable
sharing of wealth goes along with concern about the conservation and protection of natural
resources. Such policies also create conditions under which family planning programs are
more likely to succeed.
Sustainable Development
A common thread emerges in the search for environmentally sustainable
economic activity and development. This might be defined as activity that does
not involve degradation of the basic resource base on which future economic
activity, health, or well-being depend; i.e., financing today's activities with
tomorrow's resources. A new approach is required in which all nations aim at a
type of development that integrates production with resource conservation and
enhancement. An adequate basis for livelihood and equitable access to resources
are essential. Because economic and social systems and ecological conditions
8
differ widely among countries, each nation must work out its own policy
implications.
The discussion of sustainable development involves crosscutting issues, such as
national economic, development, and population policies, international
cooperation on global funding options, development of mechanisms for
technology transfer, and other related concerns. Each of these topics should
incorporate criteria of sustainability, and each nation should reexamine its own
policies and activities to ensure that this is the case. It is important that this
philosophy be reflected in each nation's approach to planning.
Although the idea of sustainable development involves unique concepts, all the
other issues contain sustainable development concepts, as well. As specific
options are developed for addressing the issues, each should also be based on
sustainability concepts.
IV. Products of Conference
What follows are lists of legislative goals and strategy options developed for each
of the seven issues of this Conference, along with short background papers
attached as appendices. The items identified could be enacted by an individual
parliament, and are categorized into goals directed at national activities and goals
directed at international activities and relations with other nations.
Not all strategies will be appropriate for all nations; not all delegates will even
agree with each option. What remains is the need to develop specific
mechanisms, model laws, and examples for implementing these goals: the tools
to fill these tool boxes.
One means for doing this is through the International Network for
Environmental Policy (INEP). INEP is a computer network for individuals and
organizations interested and involved in environmental policy issues. Initially
developed for this Conference, INEP will continue to provide policy makers from
around the world a means for communicating and sharing ideas on means of
dealing with environmental issues.
Initial legislative participants of INEP will be found in the countries attending
the ICGE. Additional participants in the network will include parliamentarians
from other nations, managers, policymakers, scientists, and others. INEP will
enable its participants to discuss approaches, strategies, and philosophies of
legislative environmental actions and to develop consistent, effective
environmental legislation.
9
Global Climate Change
10
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
Whereas:
Global climate change, which disrupts basic agricultural cycles, imposes heavy
economic costs, disturbs the ecological balance, and causes the oceans to
encroach upon coastal regions, threatens the well-being of peoples in all
nations;
More severe forms of global climate change threaten the survival of nations
and the entire international order, both directly as a consequence of
environmental effects, and indirectly as a consequence of political conflict and
war induced by desperate social stress;
The weight of scientific evidence supports the conclusion that greenhouse gas
emissions caused by the radical increase in human economic activity during
this century will, if they continue, cause serious global climatic disruption;
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, under the auspices of the
United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological
Organization, will present reports on the science, impacts, and response
strategies regarding global climate change at the November 1990 Second
World Climate Conference in Geneva;
The emissions of gases responsible for global climate change are projected to
increase sharply during the remainder of this century and in the early decades
of the next, absent concerted effort to reverse existing patterns;
The choices made now about strategies to deal with greenhouse gases will
determine whether the globe will experience climate change in its lesser
dimensions, which will impose serious but more controllable stress upon
nations and the international system, or be committed to change on a scale
which could threaten calamity;
NOW, therefore, be it resolved that:
The time to act is now; delay exposes us, our children and their children to
calamities which we will have made irrevocable by inaction in the present;
Nations should commit themselves to negotiating a global agreement on
climate change, whose basic feature will be a specific overall global target for
reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 50% from 1990 levels by the year 2010,
with the responsibility of individual nations proportionately related to
factors such as per capita emissions and levels of economic development;
and that the 50% goal be reached with, for example, a combination of a
complete phase-out of CFCs and related compounds, reductions of at least
50% in levels of annual deforestation as well as increases in reforestation,
reductions of approximately 10% in methane emissions and 20% in carbon
dioxide emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, and other actions;
The developed nations should together initiate a global Marshall Plan for
sustainable development and the environment to share the burdens in
proportion to their abilities and actively assist the developing nations so that
all nations may reach this goal;
The developed nations should launch a Strategic Environment Initiative to
stimulate the development of industrial technologies, agricultural techniques
and renewable energy sources with the potential for radically diminishing
greenhouse gas emissions, including the establishment of an international
agency to promote the development and application of all forms of solar
energy on an urgent basis;
The level of greenhouse gas emissions established as a global target should be
11
lowered regularly in light of new developments in such technologies, and
national plans and international arrangements for sharing the costs of rapidly
applying such technologies should also be adjusted as appropriate. All nations
of the world should unite in global goals of immediately stabilizing and
reversing current declining trends in worldwide forest coverage; and, by 2000,
to increase worldwide forest coverage at a rate of 30 million acres annually;
Nations should begin now to identify, plan for, and make preparations to deal
with the most likely early consequences of global climate change;
As we act to prevent global climate change, national and international
programs of global climate research must be pursued as top priorities to
sharpen our ability to understand these processes, to measure them, and to
gauge the implications of our policies for them.
Industrialized nations should ensure that trade or export development or
development aid programs do not subsidize the export or sale to developing
nations of technologies, products or substances that add to the problem of
global climate change and redirect resources to the transfer of safer
technologies.
Development aid support the production of manufactured products in the
developing country where the raw resources originate to help reverse capital
flow out of developing countries and to reduce transportation requirements.
12
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
Legislative Strategies
A number of gases produced by human activity have been measured at increasing
concentrations, adding to the greenhouse effect in which the atmosphere traps heat
from the sun. An increased greenhouse effect is expected to warm the planet and
alter climate systems. Increases in the level of man-made emissions of carbon
dioxide, methane, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and nitrous oxide, all greenhouse
gases, are a direct result of increases in population and economic activity.
Different economic sectors produce different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. In
the industrialized nations, energy-related emissions predominate, while in
developing nations, land-use and energy-related emissions both comprise significant
portions of total emissions.
National Actions
Listed below are legislative goals that could potentially contribute to the reducing
emissions of greenhouse gases. Not all of these goals will be appropriate, effective, or
efficient in all countries and regions of the world. Economic conditions and political
culture, as well as the level of emissions from each economic sector, will be
important considerations in choosing a package of goals.
General Emissions-Reduction
Goal: Accelerate development and dissemination of new technologies to promote
sustainable growth while minimizing degradation of the environment.
Strategy: In industrialized nations, establish the national government as a
model and thereby a stable market for technologies that minimize or
eliminate greenhouse gas emissions.
Strategy: Fund necessary research and development of alternative sources of
energy and fuel, with mechanisms to provide for demonstration and
commercialization.
Goal: Set national standards, guidelines, or goals to limit emissions of carbon
dioxide, CFCs, methane, and nitrous oxide.
Goal: Identify and eliminate existing national policies that work against reductions
in greenhouse gases.
Strategy: Reexamine national economic, development, tax, and research
policies in order to minimize or remove incentives for increased use of fossil
fuels.
Strategy: Redefine long-term energy strategies to achieve higher efficiency
and limit future requirements for carbon-emitting technologies.
Goal: Establish training centers at the national level to acquaint the nation's
professionals with the technologies and strategies available to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions from all sectors of the economy.
13
Manufacturing Sector
The manufacturing sector contributes substantially to greenhouse gas emissions,
particularly carbon dioxide and CFCs. The principal relevant manufacturing
activities are energy-intensive, heavy-industrial processes which consume fossil
fuels for process heat, electricity for process heat, and electricity for motive force. In
addition, some of these industries generate greenhouse gases in non-combustion
processes, either directly or as a by-product of their manufacturing processes. The
sector's potential for assisting with prevention and mitigation of the greenhouse
effect is relatively large.
Goal: Encourage industrial research and development with the aim of redesigning
manufacturing processes or equipment to improve energy efficiency and/or reduce
fossil fuel use.
Goal: Promote use of energy-efficient equipment and processes in manufacturing.
Strategy: Establish subsidies, tax credits, and other incentives to encourage
industry to replace low-efficiency equipment with high-efficiency equipment
and appliances.
Goal: Promote building operation and maintenance improvements to reduce
emissions of greenhouse gases.
Goal: Promote switching industrial energy inputs to fossil fuels with less greenhouse
gas impact, such as natural gas.
Goal: Reduce demand for fossil fuel-intensive manufactured goods by encouraging
development, production, and marketing of alternative goods.
Goal: Encourage process changes in industries that are energy-intensive and release
carbon dioxide.
Goal: Encourage co-generation by manufacturers.
Goal: Encourage recovery and recycling of fossil fuel-intensive manufactured
materials, particularly scrap steel, aluminum, plastics, paper, and glass; and
encourage incorporation of recycled materials in manufactured products.
Goal: Encourage manufacturers to produce products which are more durable or
repairable, or which generate fewer residuals when discarded.
Goal: Promote the use of sustainably harvested wood for products made from
petroleum resources, where appropriate.
Goal: Promote the use of natural products as fillers and/or substitutes for petroleum-
based products, where appropriate.
Goal: Discourage incorporation of CFCs in manufactured products.
Goal: Encourage substitution and process changes to minimize CFC use in
manufacturing, and/or encourage or require the use of closed processes and recovery
technologies to eliminate the release of CFCs to the atmosphere.
14
Goal: Restrict or discourage the release of CFCs to the atmosphere from products
which incorporate CFCs.
Strategy: Ban the improper disposal of products containing CFCs, or use a
deposit-refund system on those products to encourage proper disposal and
CFC reclamation.
Strategy: Use advertising, labeling, or government statements and signals to
communicate the hazards of CFC release, and promote consumer demand for
substitute products.
Agricultural and Forestry Sectors
In no other sector is climate a more determining factor than in agriculture and
forestry. The use of energy, production of agricultural inputs, processing of food, and
not least the metabolism of all living things, release a variety of greenhouse gases.
The sector includes important sources of methane, carbon dioxide, and nitrous
oxide.
Goal: Promote sustainable agricultural and land-use practices that require less land,
conserve energy, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Strategy: Encourage more efficient use of agrochemicals, fossil fuels, and
irrigation water, including the development of new crop varieties that
require less water and fewer chemical inputs.
Strategy: Encourage the conversion of unneeded cropland to woodland
vegetation.
Strategy: Develop and promote alternatives to burning for land management
and clearing, and control burning practices.
Strategy: Promote research in rice production to minimize methane
emissions.
Strategy: Encourage more efficient manufacture of commercial fertilizers.
Goal: Promote activities in agronomy, agriculture, and biology which will allow
plant and animal species to be better suited to changing climate conditions.
Goal: Minimize food losses and wastes in the food distribution system.
Goal: Promote investment in sustainable forests and their harvest.
Strategy: Encourage the use of non-wood forest products, such as nuts, fruits,
and medicines.
Goal: Encourage accelerated and sustained tree-growing in the public and private
sectors.
Strategy: Promote research into fast-growing tree species.
Strategy: Encourage utilities to offset carbon dioxide emissions through
urban tree planting and rural afforestation.
15
Electric Power Sector
The electric power sector is a significant source of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide
emissions, and emissions sources are highly concentrated relative to other economic
sectors. In addition to attempts to reduce its share of greenhouse gas emissions, the
electric power sector may need to adapt to any future climate change due, for
example, to changes in weather-sensitive demand, changes in streamflow.
Goal: Accelerate research, development, and demonstration of non-fossil electricity
supply technologies, such as wind power, geothermal power, solar thermal power,
solar electric power, ocean energy, and biomass energy.
Strategy: Fund necessary research and development of renewable sources of
energy and fuel, with mechanisms to provide for demonstration and
commercialization.
Goal: Increase public and commercial awareness of high-efficiency and renewable-
fuel appliances and equipment.
Strategy: Fund locally-developed education programs for individuals on how
to evaluate and maximize efficient use of energy consumption in their
everyday lives.
Goal: Eliminate fiscal incentives that encourage use of fossil fuels.
Goal: Promote high-efficiency co-generation.
Goal: Encourage anticipation of possible effects of climate change on fuel supply and
infrastructure for electricity generation.
Goal: Promote efficiency through utility operating and maintenance procedures.
Goal: Promote the use of generating technologies and fuel combinations that
minimize greenhouse gas emissions and environmental damage overall, when
investments are made to increase or replace generating capacity.
Strategy: Impose greenhouse gas emission fees, or carbon-based fuel user fees,
on utilities using fossil fuels.
Strategy: Establish tax credits for investments in selected, low- or non-
emitting technologies.
Strategy: Set technology standards or emission limits for new investments in
generating capacity.
Goal: Increase capital turnover rates to accelerate retirement of polluting or
inefficient equipment.
Goal: Promote consideration of end-use efficiency improvements and co-generation,
as low-cost alternatives to generating capacity expansion.
Goal: Encourage investment in new, more efficient transmission and distribution
technologies.
16
Strategy: Support research and development of superconducting technology
and power system automation.
Strategy: Establish standards for replacing transmission and distribution
equipment.
Goal: Promote efforts to offset new sources of carbon emissions, with measures such
as tree planting or investments in energy efficiency.
Goal: Promote development and implementation of technologies with low or no
greenhouse gas emissions.
Strategy: Establish design standards requiring the use of the best available or
best practical technology for efficient use or fuel in new generating capacity.
Strategy: Research, develop, demonstrate, and introduce technologies that
utilize clean fuels, such as hydrogen.
Goal: Improve the end-use efficiency with which electricity is used by all consumers.
Strategy: Establish efficiency standards.
Strategy: Develop subsidies and incentives to encourage use of efficient
technologies, materials, and procedures.
Goal: Encourage least-cost utility planning, which analyzes all demand-side
conservation and efficiency measures in the same framework as supply-side
measures, for providing electrical services.
Goal: Reduce methane emissions from hydro facilities and other water
impoundments.
Strategy: Require full environmental impact assessments prior to developing
water containments, in order to determine potential methane emissions
levels from such facilities prior to project approval.
Transportation Sector
Vehicle operations are the most obvious source of greenhouse gases from
transportation, but the sector also emits greenhouse gases from the construction of
infrastructure, the manufacture of operating equipment, and the production of fuels.
The greenhouse gases emitted by the sector are carbon dioxide, CFCs, and methane.
The sector also emits oxides of nitrogen (a possible precursor of nitrous oxide), as
well as other pollutants that contribute to urban air quality problems.
Goal: Promote research and development aimed at improving vehicle fuel
economy, and developing vehicles that can use alternative fuels with low or no
greenhouse gas emissions.
Goal: Promote design, production, marketing, and purchase of fuel-efficient
vehicles, and vehicles that operate on fuels with low carbon dioxide emissions.
Goal: Promote vehicle operation and maintenance improvements to reduce
emissions of greenhouse gases.
17
Goal: Slow the growth in the number of vehicle-kilometers travelled, and increase
vehicle occupancy.
Goal: Promote efficiency in urban, suburban, and rural transportation infrastructure
designs, including location of residences, businesses, and services, as well as layout of
roads and highways, that minimizes the need for private vehicle use and otherwise
minimizes overall energy demand for personal transport.
Strategy: Promote and facilitate use of relatively fuel-efficient modes of
travel, such as walking, bicycling, urban mass transit, or high-speed rail,
where appropriate.
Goal: Promote development and utilization of telecommunications to reduce the
need for travel to exchange information or obtain services.
Goal: Promote transportation infrastructure designs, and strategies for extending
their useful life, that reduce requirements for materials whose production releases
large amounts of greenhouse gases.
Goal: Promote maximal use of the least energy-intensive modes of freight transport.
Residential and Commercial Sectors
The residential and commercial sectors consume energy for applications in areas
such as cooking, space heating, lighting, and air conditioning. The most obvious
opportunities for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are in improving the efficiency
with which these services are provided. Community design and weatherproofing of
structures also play a role in determining how much energy is consumed to regulate
the indoor environment. In addition to their direct and indirect contribution to
carbon dioxide emissions, the commercial and residential sectors account for a
substantial portion of CFC emissions.
Goal: Encourage energy efficiency and conservation, and overall resource efficiency,
in new and existing buildings, through building design, siting and landscaping,
construction, energy-use management, and retrofitting older buildings.
Strategy: Encourage urban tree planting for shade, as a means to reduce
building cooling loads.
Goal: Demonstrate and promote increased efficiency of fuelwood use; provide
incentives for substitution of more efficient fuels.
Goal: Promote efficiency in urban transportation infrastructure designs, including
location of residences and services, street layout, and landscaping, that minimizes
the need for private vehicle use and otherwise minimizes overall energy demand
from communities.
Strategy: Promote use of relatively fuel-efficient modes of travel, such as
walking, bicycling, urban mass transit, or high-speed rail, where appropriate.
Goal: Encourage the adoption of updated building codes that require highly efficient
equipment and practices.
Goal: Promote the use of non-fossil energy, such as passive and active solar, wind,
18
and biomass, for space heating, water heating, and other applications.
Goal: Promote research and development aimed at improving energy efficiency and
developing alternative fuels for residential and commercial applications.
Goal: Encourage proper operation and maintenance of building equipment, to
ensure optimal efficiency.
Goal: Promote the manufacture and purchase of high-efficiency equipment and
appliances.
Goal: Encourage methane recovery from landfills.
Goal: Stimulate research, development, and marketing of chemical and/or
technological substitutes for CFCs, in appliances, building materials, and commercial
equipment.
Goal: Promote retrieval of CFCs from appliances prior to disposal.
Goal: Control use of CFCs in construction materials and appliances for residences
and businesses.
Goal: Encourage co-generation in commercial and institutional settings.
International Strategies
Climate change is an international problem, whose solution will require
international cooperation. The following list offers some strategies that may help to
promote the common overall goal of protecting the global environment.
Goal: Promote, support, and become involved in international cooperative activities
aimed at mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.
Strategy: Participate in negotiations for a global climate convention.
Strategy: Promote the establishment of international financial mechanisms
to assist developing countries in their compliance with a possible climate
protection treaty, and existing treaties for protecting the stratospheric ozone
layer.
Strategy: Sign and ratify the Montreal Protocol.
Strategy: Support negotiations to strengthen the Montreal Protocol.
Goal: Promote information dissemination on technologies and techniques available
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Goal: Promote technology-transfer and joint technology development programs,
particularly for energy-intensive activities such as manufacturing and electricity
generation, and for CFC-replacement technologies.
Goal: Facilitate financing for implementing projects to reduce greenhouse gas
19
emissions, including energy efficiency, alternatives to fossil fuels, and reforestation.
Goal: Establish environmental criteria for economic assistance programs and
institutions; for example, such criteria might promote development of more
effective environmental guidelines, and financing of environmentally sound
projects.
20
Ozone Depletion
21
OZONE DEPLETION
Whereas:
The best available scientific evidence shows that certain manufactured
substances, including chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons
(HCFCs), methyl chloroform, carbon tetrachloride, and halons, are causing
destruction of the stratospheric ozone layer;
Destruction of the stratospheric ozone layer will lead to increased rates of
disease in humans, including skin cancers and cataracts, threaten food crops
and marine resources, and otherwise damage the natural environment;
No level of stratospheric ozone depletion caused by human activities can be
deemed safe;
The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer provides a
framework for all nations of the world to protect the Earth's ozone shield;
The control measures that are currently set forth in the Montreal Protocol are
far too weak to protect the stratospheric ozone layer;
Ozone-destroying CFCs and related compounds are also powerful greenhouse
gases projected to be responsible for 20 to 25 percent of global warming;
Stratospheric ozone depletion from continued emissions of CFCs and other
ozone-destroying compounds imperil human health and the environment
worldwide;
In order to protect adequately the stratospheric ozone layer, avoidable
emissions of all ozone-destroying compounds should be terminated rapidly;
Industrialized nations should encourage industries to develop and convert to
safe, alternative products and technologies that do not rely on ozone-
destroying compounds;
There will be substantial development and transition costs which will be more
difficult to bear in developing than in developed economies;
The effort to protect the Earth's stratospheric ozone layer by phasing out ozone-
destroying compounds cannot succeed if it is not universal;
NOW, therefore, be it resolved that:
National laws, regulations, agreements and similar enforceable standards must
be reviewed and improved to minimize the release of all ozone-destroying
compounds to the atmosphere, through use of improved emissions controls,
recapturing and recycling, and safe disposal systems;
National laws, regulations, agreements and similar enforceable mechanisms
should encourage the transition from all ozone-destroying compounds to
environmentally benign substitutes, through the application of measures
such as taxes or fees, incentives, and the implementation of national safety
and licensing standards;
National laws, regulations, agreements and similar enforceable standards
should be used to encourage the rapid development of new technologies,
processes and/or manufactured compounds so that the costs of transition will
be minimized;
National laws, regulations, agreements and similar enforceable standards must
be applied to prevent the transfer or exchange of ozone destructive
technologies among nations;
The Montreal Protocol must be strengthened at the June, 1990 Second Meeting
of the Parties in London by
(1) expanding coverage to include all ozone destroying compounds, such as
methyl chloroform, hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), and carbon
tetrachloride;
(2) accelerating the reduction schedule for production and use of all ozone
22
destroying compounds;
(3) limiting growth in production and use of HCFCs, with more stringent
limits applicable to compounds that either have an atmospheric lifetime
greater than two years or that contribute significantly to other
environmental threats, including but not limited to global climate
change;
(4) providing for elimination of the production of CFCs, the halons, carbon
tetrachloride, and methyl chloroform as early as possible, but in no event
later than January 1, 2000, with special consideration to the needs of
developing countries; and
(5) providing for elimination of the production of HCFCs as early as possible,
but in no event later than January 1, 2030, with earlier elimination dates
applicable to compounds that either have an atmospheric lifetime greater
than two years or that contribute significantly to other environmental
threats, including but not limited to global climate change.
To encourage global participation in and compliance with the Montreal
Protocol, equitable mechanisms must be developed to share the
responsibilities and the costs of transition to ozone-safe processes,
technologies, and/or manufactured compounds, including but not limited to
bilateral and multilateral funding assistance from industrialized nations to
developing countries and creation of an international fund to assist
developing countries seeking to comply with the Montreal Protocol.
Those countries capable of reducing and eliminating production or use of
ozone-destroying compounds faster than required by the Protocol, especially
compounds with atmospheric lifetimes greater than two years, should do so.
23
DEPLETION OF THE STRATOSPHERIC OZONE LAYER
Legislative Strategies
National Actions
Goal: Establish disincentives to discourage the use of ozone-destroying chemicals.
Increasing the cost of production, sale and use of ozone-destroying chemicals
through taxes or fees provides disincentives for the use of those chemicals and
increases demand for substitutes, technologies and processes that do not rely on
ozone-destroying chemicals. Fees could be imposed through the requirement for
licenses to produce these chemicals. Taxes could be imposed on both their sale and
on equipment, appliances or processes which use them.
Strategy: Impose excise taxes on ozone-destroying compounds, both domestic
and imported, to discourage their use. However, exemptions should be
allowed for exports to developing countries.
Strategy: Impose excise taxes on appliances, processes, and equipment, both
domestic and imported, based on their potential to contribute to ozone
destruction, to discourage their use.
Strategy: License production of all ozone-destroying compounds and attach
fees to obtaining the licenses.
Goal: Encourage the use of safe substitute technologies, processes and/or
manufactured compounds. Prior to the eventual abolition of ozone-destroying
compounds, systems can be developed to encourage switching to safe substitutes
earlier than required. Incentives can also be provided to industry and researchers to
develop effective and efficient substitutes. Incentives for the recycling and reuse of
ozone-destroying compounds should be developed as well. These programs will be
expensive, and should be supported in developing countries through assistance
from developed countries.
Strategy: Production and purchase of safe substitutes is subsidized and
supported so as to encourage broad use.
Strategy: Subsidies and supports are provided for the manufacture and
purchase of equipment, processes, and appliances which do not rely on
ozone-destroying compounds.
Strategy: Manufacturers and research firms receive tax deductions, credits,
and other subsidies for the research and development of substitute
technologies, processes, and/or manufactured compounds.
Goal: Regulate the production, use, and disposition of ozone-destroying
compounds. National regulations should be developed to control production and
use of ozone-destroying compounds and to lead to reductions which are consistent
with or more stringent than international agreements such as the Montreal Protocol.
Strategy: Develop accelerated reduction schedules for allowable production
prior to elimination of ozone-destroying compounds, including CFCs, halons,
24
methyl chloroform, hydrochlorofluorocarbons, and carbon tetrachloride.
Strategy: Mandate elimination of all ozone-depleting compounds. Selection
of a date for elimination for HCFCs should consider the degree of
environmental threat presented by the specific HCFC compound, the effect of
early dates on the willingness of producers to make necessary investments
and the ability of developing countries to avoid a growing dependence on
CFCs.
Strategy: Develop strictly controlled venting practices and emissions control
programs.
Strategy: Require and enforce appropriate recycling and disposal methods.
Strategy: Ban equipment, processes, and appliances which use ozone-
destroying compounds.
Strategy: Prohibit non-essential consumer items which use ozone-destroying
compounds.
Goal: Develop funding mechanisms for ozone-protection programs. Initially, the
revenues gained from taxes and fees, together with fines imposed through
enforcement activities and tariffs imposed on importation of ozone-destroying
chemicals and appliances which use them, will provide some funding for research,
enforcement, and other activities. However, these resources are limited and short-
lived. Long-term funding mechanisms must be developed.
Strategy: Support the development of international trust funds or other
sources.
Goal: Develop and fund research programs designed to reduce and ultimately
eliminate production and use of all ozone-destroying chemicals and to retrieve,
recycle, and safely dispose of them. It is not necessary for all countries to conduct
research on all aspects of ozone protection, but programs should be established to
obtain and apply the results of research from those countries that are conducting
research activities.
Strategy: For those countries which have the resources, research programs,
both national, private, and local, should be funded on ozone issues. Research
efforts should focus on:
a. Atmospheric effects
b. Substitutes for CFCs, halons, carbon tetrachloride, methyl
chloroform, and HCFCs and the energy efficiencies of each
C. Emission controls for those uses that cannot be eliminated quickly
d Recycling, containment and disposal methods
e. Economic effects
f. Policy impact research
25
Strategy: Establish national clearinghouse to disseminate information on
ozone-destroying substitutes, the disposal and handling of undesirable
chemicals, and ozone depletion to industry, businesses, and citizens.
International Actions
Goal: Strengthen the Montreal Protocol.
Strategy: Expand coverage of Protocol to include methyl chloroform, carbon
tetrachloride, and hydrochlorofluorocarbons; accelerate reduction schedules in the
current protocol; add provisions providing for elimination of all ozone-destroying
compounds as rapidly as possible.
Goal: Broaden worldwide participation in and compliance with the Montreal
Protocol.
Strategy: Use bilateral and multilateral assistance to promote participation
and compliance with Protocol.
Strategy: Prompt development and demonstrated availability of safe,
substitute technologies and processes that do not rely on ozone-destroying
compounds will promote willingness of all nations to comply with terms of
the Protocol.
Goal: Explore and support international cooperative activities. It is important that
countries establish mechanisms for sharing of information and means for reducing
use of ozone-destroying compounds. One way of doing this is through UNEP and
WHO clearinghouses of information.
Strategy: Develop programs for sharing appropriate technologies which
reduce use of ozone-destroying compounds.
Strategy: Support cooperative research programs to develop safe substitute
technologies and processes that do not rely on ozone-destroying compounds.
Strategy: Ratify international treaties like the Montreal Protocol and the
Vienna Convention.
Goal: Encourage use of environmental criteria by economic assistance programs and
institutions.
Strategy: Increase pressure on national overseas development agencies and
multilateral development banks to develop more effective environmental
guidelines and to support ecologically sound projects, and, conversely, to end
those projects which directly or indirectly promote the use ozone-destroying
substances.
Strategy: Provide effective technical assistance and other bilateral assistance
to research and other programs which encourage the use of safe substitute
technologies and processes that do not rely on ozone-destroying compounds.
Strategy: Negotiate provision and acceptance of bilateral assistance to include
26
environmental criteria.
Goal: Develop economic pressures and sanctions.
Strategy: Develop mechanisms to encourage countries that are not reducing
or limiting production and use of ozone-destroying compounds to do so.
These mechanisms should at least be consistent with the Montreal Protocol.
Strategy: Plan for prohibiting importation of all ozone-destroying
compounds.
Strategy: Develop financial aid to needy countries for substituting, recycling,
capturing, and disposing of all ozone-destroying compounds.
Strategy: Prohibit importation of equipment and appliances that require the
use of ozone-destroying compounds.
Strategy: Prohibit exportation of specified products to countries that are not
signatories to and in compliance with the Montreal Protocol and the Vienna
Convention or successors.
Strategy: Enforce economic sanctions against countries that produce ozone-
destroying compounds beyond the limits of the Montreal Protocol or
successors.
Strategy: Prohibit export of technologies to produce or expand use of any
ozone-destroying compounds to countries that are not signatories to and in
compliance with the Montreal Protocol.
27
Sustainable Development
28
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
The goal of sustainable development is nothing less than the permanent
preservation of life on earth.
Whereas:
The basic needs of our growing populations, and the aspirations of all peoples
for themselves and their children require continued economic progress
especially in developing regions of the world;
Each nation has the right to choose the pattern of development most
compatible with its history, tradition, culture and the concerns of its people;
Implementation of sustainable development policies must include a full
recognition that poverty and illiteracy, as human conditions, must be
eliminated. Such conditions are critical impediments to national and global
achievement of sustainable development;
Current approaches to development are rapidly consuming the natural
endowments of all nations, in terms of land, water, minerals and fuels, at
rates which cannot be sustained over an extended period of time;
Current approaches to development are destroying increasing numbers of
living species of animals and plants, the loss of which impoverishes us and
our descendents economically, intellectually and morally;
The effluents which are a byproduct of economic growth have reached levels
that severely compromise local and regional environments, to the extent that
the economic and social costs arising from these practices already have begun
to outweigh economic gains;
Some of these effluents, such as the greenhouse gases, have reached levels that
will increasingly disturb the basic natural cycles and systems upon which the
global environment depends for stability;
Local and regional environmental and resource degradation will render
existing strategies for development increasingly ineffective, threatening our
ability to advance;
Natural systems imbalances at the global level will threaten the fabric of
organized international life, with risks and costs escalating rapidly with every
delay in addressing the sources of this threat;
Major improvements in the technologies now used for economic growth as
well as new measurement indices will be needed to respond to these
profound challenges;
Even revolutionary advances will be of little use, unless matched by similarly
deep changes in attitude, policy, and institutions in every nation;
The uncontrolled pursuit of biotechnology experimentation and genetic
manipulation imposes unusual dangers on the global environment and is
inconsistent with the principles of sustainable development.and more time is
required for international dialogue on the ethical and moral dimensions of
genetic manipulation;
It is necessary to distinguish between the terms "economic growth" and
"development." "Economic growth" only takes into consideration numerical
measures such as GNP, and does not take into account social and
environmental costs; and
"Development" must be understood as a qualitative measure of well-being.
"Sustainable development" is a necessary balance between the interests of
present and future generations. It includes both social justice and a healthy
environment.
29
NOW, therefore, be it resolved, that
The parliaments of each nation are urged to provide the leadership to change
and refocus national priorities on conservation and ecological protection as
primary national responsibilities.
NATIONAL CHARTER FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Be it further resolved, that
each nation is urged to undertake the establishment of a National Sustainable
Development Charter to include self-binding rules and obligations, including
economic incentives or disincentives, to respect and concretely recognize the
principles of responsible and sustainable development, including:
measures to control and stabilize population growth;
practices to conserve and adequately reduce reliance on fossil fuels and non-
renewable resources generally;
revisions of national accounting systems to recognize and incorporate
environmental values such as the depletion of non-renewable resources;
regulations for preservation of habitat, endangered species, and biodiversity;
policies to prevent the unsustainable use of wetlands, farmlands and forests;
limitations and controls on the generation and disposal of toxics;
elimination of subsidies that result in loss of habitat, species, or biodiversity, or
the excessive consumption of non-renewable resources;
practices, especially for industry, to reduce energy demand and minimize waste;
and
adherence to internationally agreed upon standards of ecological conduct
applicable to both domestic and international entities, incorporating a
principle of global fairness.
GREEN COMMON MARKET
Be it further resolved, that
the membership of GATT is urged to take the necessary steps to establish a
Green Common Market for Trade and Technology in which participants
agree to assume an appropriate and comprehensive range of sustainable
development strategies and practices while gaining complete and open
market access, free of duties, tariffs, quantitative restrictions and other direct
and indirect market barriers.
such Green Common Market shall be established by (1) improving and
utilizing the mechanisms of Article XX, or (2) concluding a Sustainable
Development Code conferring enforceable obligations upon signatories.
BANK FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Be it further resolved, that
the industrialized world recognize its responsibilities and self-interest in
assisting developing countries in achieving sustainable development by
establishing a Bank for Sustainable Development with the special purpose of
supporting the transition of developing countries addressing and implementing
sustainable development practices. Eligibility shall be extended to:
30
(1) Those countries with low levels of development and percapita income
and for which comprehensive application of sustainable development
principles is currently infeasible and which undertake an effective and
sustained program to achieve "demographic transition".
(2) Those developing countries adopting practices and policies consistent
with a national charter for sustainable development;
capitalization for the Sustainable Development Bank shall be drawn, insofar as
possible, from the military and defense budgets of the major industrialized
countries; and
as an interim measure while arrangements for this new institution are being
completed, a "Green Window" for ecologically-related loans be inaugurated at
the World Bank.
POPULATION
Be it further resolved / that
the growth of population must be limited to sustainable levels by each nation,
and
any nation yet to achieve "demographic transition" shall be granted benefits
under the Sustainable Development Code upon demonstration that such
nation has undertaken a comprehensive program to achieve demographic
transition, which program includes but is not limited to:
--recognition of basic human rights, including the education, employment,
and empowerment of women;
--provision of educational and market-driven employment opportunities,
to enable people to earn an adequate minimum standard of living; and
--successful implementation of effective family planning programs to
achieve and maintain replacement-level birth rates.
all major sustainable development planning should incorporate women's
development, education, and family planning policies which take the human
factor into careful account.
INTERNATIONAL BORROWING AND LENDING
Be it further resolved, that
no multilateral lending institution, nor any government agency or
government chartered financial institution, shall extend credit:
for any activity that is inconsistent with sustainable development; or
to any nation that has not systematically begun to incorporate the principles of
sustainable development in its policy practices.
the determination by any one multilateral lending institution shall be binding
on all others.
all decisions by international lending institutions shall be based on the
submission of a thorough evaluation of environmental and social impacts of
any activity proposed to be financed.
policies of all multilateral lending institutions shall respect the perspectives
and needs of borrowers as well as lenders.
all multilateral lending institutions and creditor governments shall adopt
policies to strongly encourage and facilitate the reduction and conversion of
existing debt, according urgent and highest priority to debt for nature swaps.
31
TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER
Be it further resolved, that
the transfer of technologies essential to achieving sustainable development be
given high priority for support by all multilateral financial institutions.
special rules and concessionary terms for the transfer of technologies and access
to intellectual property be established to speed and facilitate access by those
nations subscribing to the principles of sustainable development.
pending the completion of international dialogue on biotechnology and genetic
manipulation and the establishment of uniform guidelines and protections,
no patents be issued that would result in the release of genetically-engineered
organisms to the natural environment.
TOXICS
Be it further resolved, that
each nation shall commit to the urgent implementation of measures to reduce
and control toxic emissions into the environment and pledges:
(1) to reduce all toxic and mutagenic elements in production activities to
the greatest extent feasible by the year 2000.
(2) to routinely and accurately monitor the composition and volume of
such effluents that are necessary and unavoidable to production activities
(after the application of best control technologies); and
(3) to dispose of such residual effluents in the most environmentally
responsible and protective manner, consistent with the principles of
sustainable development, in the country or region where the materials
are produced,
and shall adopt such national requirements and regulations and dedicate such
resources as are necessary to achieve these objectives.
ENVIRONMENTAL COSTS
Be it further resolved, that
each nation shall develop and apply revised accounting systems and practices
that shall fully recognize, in national product and income accounting, all
costs associated with:
the depletion of non-renewable resources, including energy, ecological systems,
and species diversity, and
damage to the environment.
each national government shall use economic and fiscal measures to require
such costs to be imposed on, and returned by, the public or private entity
engaging in such activity; and
each nation shall support and encourage similar revision in accounting
systems maintained by the United Nations and other regional and
international organizations.
PEACE
Be it further resolved, that
the sovereign nations of the earth recognize that the material and spiritual
sustenance of humankind requires the full commitment of each nation to
32
achieving and maintaining global peace. To this end, the nations undertake:
to resolve conflicts and disputes peacefully through negotiation, diplomacy,
and reliance on international law and institutions, including the
establishment of an Environmental Court and an Environmental Security
Council within the U.N. structure;
to reallocate insofar as possible investments in military weapons and defense
systems to meet human needs, and particularly the protection of the global
environment, education and the eradication of poverty; and
to establish policies and norms of behavior that are conducive to the
harmonious and sustainable conduct of relations with other countries and
peoples.
33
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Legislative Strategies
The goal of sustainable development is to balance environmental and ecological
requirements with economic development. It is a concept which has great tensions.
Affluence can cause global warming and ozone depletion as its unintended by-
products. Poverty can accelerate the loss of tropical forests and inhibit biodiversity.
Population shifts and growth are an critical factor to the ability of a nation or culture
to sustain itself over long periods of time.
National Actions
Goal: Develop a national definition of "sustainable development" incorporating
economic and ecological sustainability with an eye towards enhancing and
preserving our future.
A new approach is required in which all nations aim at a type of development that
integrates production with resource conservation and enhancement. An adequate
basis for livelihood and equitable access to resources are essential. Because economic
and social systems and ecological conditions differ widely among countries, each
nation must work out its own goals.
Strategy: Develop criteria for sustainability for industry and agriculture using
national definition.
Strategy: Apply national definitions and criteria to national economic and
development policies.
Strategy: Establish a national governmental focal point on environmental
foresight and policy,
Strategy: Require a review of environmental assessments of major national
products and development activities.
Goal: Refine economic and development polices to reflect sustainable development
criteria.
Environmental considerations must be integrated into economic, technological,
energy, transport, trade, industrial, foreign, and defense policies in order to meet
criteria for sustainable development.
Strategy: Develop and implement a national income accounting system that
takes appropriate account of the destruction or degradation of natural
resources.
Strategy: Support the development of tax incentives that encourage
development of criteria for environmental sustainability.
Goal: Establish and fund research programs into methods of conducting sustainable
development.
34
To develop effective methods of sustainable development, we need to know much
more about what kinds of development are, and what kinds are not, sustainable.
Goal: Develop best environmental sustainability practices with regard to industrial
production, agriculture, and energy goals. Establish regulatory mechanisms to apply
and enforce national criteria for evaluating success.
Strategy: Promote national sustainable development discussions with local
government, industry, and community leaders.
Goal: Establish National Foresight Capability. In order to fulfill the responsibilities of
each generation as a trustee of the environment for succeeding generations, every
country should establish a national foresight capability to develop a process for
understanding the long-term consequences of major actions and their international
implications. Likely areas of potential concern might include: balance of
payments/trade; economic well-being; environmental quality; information transfer
and communications; national security; population structure, mobility and growth;
public health; resource conservation and use; social equity; and technological
productivity.
Industrial Practices:
Strategy: Develop industrial standards to provide identifiable criteria for
preventing the use of materials that cause waste, recycling those that can be
recycled, and disposing of the end products in the most responsible fashion.
Strategy: Develop standards for transport, handling,and disposal of
hazardous wastes and emissions.
Strategy: Establish notification procedures for hazardous waste accidents and
releases.
Strategy: Develop regulations limiting emissions from industry. Require
appropriate use of pollution prevention and control technologies.
Strategy: Establish reasonable and responsible enforcement programs.
Strategy: Encourage community participation in evaluating and advising on
hazardous materials affecting them.
Land Use and Agriculture Practices
Goal: Broad land conservation categories should be established to provide for the
enhancement of already developed areas; to prevent the development of reserve
areas;and to require restoration when necessary. These categories should reflect the
national sustainability criteria.
Strategy: Subsidies that overstimulate food production and create
inappropriate pressures on land resources at the expense of wetlands, parks
and fragile lands should be eliminated or modified.
35
Strategy: Broad agricultural and forestry categories should be established,
indicating proper levels of cropping, grazing, and lumbering for each type of
ecosystem represented. These categories should reflect the national
sustainability criteria.
Goal: Environmentally sustainable agriculture established as a national goal.
Strategy: Research on optimal mix of chemical and pesticide inputs to lower
costs of production and preserve the resource base with minimum damage.
Strategy: Establish active extension services to disseminate new techniques
using optimal/minimal effective inputs and maximizing effective organic
alternatives.
Goal: Develop programs to improve use of natural resources and crops through use
of local seed banks to store and propagate genetic material to prevent the loss of
biodiversity and restore the natural functions of biological communities and
ecosystems.
Strategy: Establish and fund seed banks and research efforts to utilize the resources
available there.
International Actions
Goal: Promote economic assistance programs that incorporate sustainable
development criteria which include appropriate technology transfer
Aid agencies should adopt a longer term perspective directed at the protection and
rehabilitation of the natural resource base. Intermediary institutions, either non-
governmental or linked to local government, that can administer aid more cheaply
and involve local people should be established. Aid agencies should adopt stringent
requirements for environmental impact assessment, examination of decentralized
alternatives, and involvement of affected people.
Strategy: Increase pressure on international lending organizations and other
nations to adopt national income accounting practices which incorporate
degradation of natural resource factors in calculating GNP.
Strategy: Lender nations should expand the economic criteria by which they
provide loans to include environmental and sustainable development
criteria.
Strategy: Increase pressure to relevant international organizations, such as
UN agencies, the World Bank and regional groups, to develop model
contracts and guidelines incorporating a range of sustainable development
principles(e.g., principles that encourage exploitation of renewable resources
within limits defining sustainable yields).
Strategy: Increase pressure to relevant international organizations such as
the OECD to develop codes of conduct for transnational corporations which
deal explicitly with environmental matters, embracing the objectives of
sustainable development.
36
Strategy: Require development assistance to be targeted at Least Cost Energy
Technologies. (These involve a method of reviewing the full range of options
available-for increasing supply and for reducing demand-before making a
commitment to follow a particular strategy for energy enhancement.)
Goal: Become signatory to and support international environmental treaties and
conventions
Strategy: Sign and support international conservation treaties and
conventions, such as World Heritage, and Endangered Species.
Strategy: Encourage a strong and effective international convention for the
handling and disposal of hazardous wastes.
Strategy: Promote international codes of practice covering technical,
economic, and social (including health and environment) aspects of
energy.production and consumption.
Goal: Areas already set aside under Debt-for-Nature swaps should develop
mechanisms for addressing the needs of adjacent human populations for
sustainable develoment.
Goal: Establish international cooperative compacts reflecting sustainable
development with environmental criteria.
Because of potential transboundary effects, it is essential that governments cooperate
to develop internationally agreed upon codes of practice. In order to streamline
programs and lead to the sharing of expenses for regional initiatives, processes to
strengthen co-operation are essential. This requires the identification, analysis and
coordination of solutions to international environmental problems.
Strategy: Establish national process for evaluating multilateral treaties, including
trade, in order to look at their environmental impacts.
37
Population
38
POPULATION
Whereas:
Annual global population increases are greater, in real terms, than at any time in
human history;
At current rates, in the 30 years it takes for one generation to succeed another, the
world's total population will grow by close to 3 billion people;
Yearly increments over the next 10 years will approach 97 million human beings
world-wide, 94 per cent of which will be born in the developing world;
The implications of such developments are staggering. Nearly everywhere,
increasing demands are damaging the natural resource base - land, water and air -
upon which all life depends;
Urban overcrowding and the lack of economic opportunity in many parts of the
world exists. Moreover, poverty is widespread and growing: For some 1.2 billion
people, poverty is a way of life;
Pressures on resources reflect the growth of population, equally relevant is the
pursuit of lifestyles by industrialized countries which threaten ecosystems and
sustainable development. Efforts should be taken by the industrialized countries to
show bolder leadership on population and the environment.
The projected growth of the global population could be as high as 14 billion or
approximately 10 billion before it stabilizes sometime late in the next century;
There is a marked difference between the social, economic and environmental
implications of a global population that grows to 14 billion versus one that grows to
10 billion;
Recognize the importance of economic choices and increased equality at the local,
national and international levels, to the success of family planning programs.
The working group on Population believes that the 1990s are a critical decade for
developing population programs that will reduce the future size of the global
Clearly, population; it is time for concerted action. The triad of population growth and
distribution, environmental degradation and pervasive poverty threatens us and
our planet as never before. Future generations must be given basic human rights
and have equal access to all the benefits society has to offer.
NOW, therefore, be it resolved that Parliamentarians in all nations should:
Endorse the "Amsterdam Declaration" developed by the participants of the
International Forum on Population in the Twenty-first Century, held in
Amsterdam, the Netherlands, from 6 to 9 November 1989, whereby population goals
and objectives for the coming decade and beyond should include:
1) a reduction in the average number of children born per woman commensurate
with achieving, at a minimum, the medium variant population projections of
the United Nations;
2) a major reduction in the proportion of women and men who are not currently
using reliable methods of family planning, but who want to postpone, delay or
limit childbearing;
3) a substantial reduction in very early marriage and teenage pregnancy;
4) an increase in contraceptive prevalence in developing countries so as to reach
the objectives of the medium variant population projection of the United Nations.
Strengthen their political commitment to family planning programs, particularly by
giving visibility through Administrative priority;
Promote citizen participation in national population programs at all levels, in
particular at the local and community level;
Recognize and promote the importance of the rural family. In particular, programs
should be encouraged to strengthen the delivery of reproductive health services,
39
infant and child health care, maternal health care and the education of women in
rural areas. Further, it is recommended that effective programs be demonstrated
which protect the welfare of rural inhabitants and provide economic choices which
enhance equality;
Develop programs that improve the organization of all planning programs, with
particular emphasis given to addressing the rapid urbanization of the global
population;
Improve educational programs at all levels, both within and independent of school
systems. Every individual has the right to education. Particular attention should be
given to improving the education of, and to reduce illiteracy among, women around
the world. In addition, population and environmental education should be
developed and promoted at every level;
Develop programs to improve reproductive health care for women. Programs
should be designed to ensure safer motherhood by assisting women to avoid
unwanted pregnancies and to procreate during the biologically safe reproductive years.
Special attention should be paid to the prevention of pregnancies which carry extra
health risks;
Develop programs that will improve the delivery of family planning services.
Particular attention should be paid to improve the logistics and supply of family
planning programs so the unmet need for family planning is addressed.
Promote programs that raise the priority given to population in international
diplomacy. In particular, increased international funding for population programs is
critical. Increased funding for population programs by multilateral institutions and for
non-governmental population programs both nationally and through multinational
non-governmental organizations is imperative. Recognizing the recommendations
of the Amsterdam Declaration, population programs designed to attain the United
Nations median variant estimate of population growth (10.3 billion) must be funded
at a level of US $9 billion, distributed in accordance with the specific needs of
individual countries. To reach this goal, all governments, and the United States in
particular, must increase financial support for population programs. The United
States is encouraged to renew its historical position as the world's leader in
international programs.
Promote the development of integrated population, environmental and economic
planning, recognizing that policies affecting one of these areas affects the others as
well;
Encourage policies that promote responsible parenthood -- particularly with respect to
male responsibility and participation in the child-rearing process;
Promote the development of policies that improve the health of children and
recognize the effects of environmental degradation on the young. In particular,
efforts should be directed at creating educational programs to promote breast-feeding
and ensure low-cost, effective, child survival measures. Pursuant to the Amsterdam
Declaration, support is given to reducing the 1980 rate of infant mortality to rates of
at most 50 per 1000 live births by the year 2000 in all countries and major sub-groups
within countries. The health and nutrition of children must be improved so that
the decline in infant mortality is a recognízed reality by parents;
Promote policies that take into account the cultural relevancy of population
programs -- by taking into consideration social, political, religious and cultural
traditions.
Recognize that poverty is both a determinant of and dependent upon population
growth. The development of economic development programs is a critical
determinant of fertility and should be encouraged nationally and internationally.
Parliamentarians are particularly urged to promote more egalitarian systems and
increase equity in national agriculture and rural policies. Recognizing the woman's
role as a subsistence farmer, it is desirable to seek a restructuring of social, economic
40
and political controls over agriculture and land so that women can participate in the
management and decisions related to these resources.
Initiate a review of existing legal mechanisms that can be implemented to further
population programs. All nations are urged to develop national population policies.
Parliamentarians are encouraged to help educate political colleagues about the
nature and urgency of the population issue and to work with colleagues to develop
legislative agendas that promote population programs. It is recognized that family
planning is a human right. It is the right of individual couples to voluntarily
determine family size. We respect human rights for all families and individuals,
and family planning must be consistent with acceptable doctrines of human rights.
Promote family planning research, in particular, these efforts should: (1) encourage the
improvement of existing and the development of new methods of family planning; (2)
study the causes and the consequences of rural-urban population migration; and (3) generate a
data base on the relationship between demographic characteristics and the outcome of
development programs. Increasing funding for this research is essential.
41
POPULATION
Legislative Strategies
National Actions
Goal: To make family planning information and services widely available for any
who want it. This should be carried out in a manner that takes account of the
diversity of cultures. On average, an annual expenditure of $15-20 per couple per
year could provide adequate family planning information and services in most
nations, as well as the training and research need to expand and improve services.
Strategy: Increase funding for national population programs.
Strategy: Increase funding for international family planning programs
Strategy: Dedicate a higher percentage of foreign assistance funding to
international family planning.
Strategy: Encourage increased funding for population programs by
multilateral development banks.
Strategy: Encourage increased funding for government and non-government
population programs both nationally and through multinational non-
governmental organizations.
Goal: Develop national population strategies to stabilize population size.
Strategy: Create mechanisms/surveys to determine population targets that
can be sustained with domestic natural resources and that can benefit from
economic growth and an enhanced quality of life.
Strategy: Encourage balanced distribution of the population in relation to the
long-term carrying capacity of the country.
Goal: Develop integrated national population plans.
Strategy: Encourage the development of national plans that coordinate and
set environmental, economic, social and overall development goals in
conjunction with a comprehensive population plan.
Strategy: Include population considerations in all environmental assessment
processes.
Goal: Encourage reductions in fertility rates.
Strategy: Encourage birth spacing-the period of time between births-which
promotes infant health, reduces maternal-related illness and reduces family
size.
Strategy: Encourage generational spacing-delaying average age at which
women first give birth.
42
Strategy: Create incentives for delaying the birth of the first child.
Strategy: Develop mechanisms to reduce teenage pregnancy through
adequate sex education and appropriate services.
Strategy: Raise minimum ages for marriage.
Strategy: Assist women to avoid unwanted pregnancy and to procreate during
the biologically safe reproductive years.
Strategy: Expand and reorient primary health care services to increase their
impact on women's reproductive health.
Goal: Reduce infant and child mortality
Strategy: Create educational programs to promote breast feeding and ensure
sustained low cost effective child survival measures.
Strategy: Develop child nutrition programs.
Strategy: Provide safe drinking water and hygienic conditions through
sanitation facilities.
Goal: Reduce maternal mortality
Strategy: Encourage birth spacing.
Strategy: Expand health care services (neo-natal/post natal care).
Strategy: Expand health education programs.
Strategy: Special attention should be applied to the prevention of pregnancies
which carry extra health risks.
Goal: Improve the status of women. (Fertility rates are related closely to the status of
women in society.)
Strategy: Expand educational opportunities for girls and women.
Strategy: Reduce female illiteracy.
Strategy: Draft and enact laws that promote equal rights for women in
marriage, land ownership, and employment.
Strategy: Encourage pay equity
Strategy: Encourage women's participation in the public and the private
sector, and in the political and economic spheres of influence.
Goal: Promote policies that reduce rural/urban migration.
Strategy: Land distributive changes through land reform and transmigration
of rural population from land-short to surplus areas.
43
Strategy: Improve communication facilities and electrification which breaks
rural isolation and backwardness.
Strategy: Develop services for secondary towns.
Goal: Improve the cultural relevancy in the delivery of population programs. The
success of population programs is closely related to delivery that recognizes: (1) local
customs and prevailing social mores; (2) community based family planning
programs carried out though voluntary non-governmental organizations.
Strategy: Initiate a national inventory. of demographic/cultural patterns for
assessing the delivery of population services.
Strategy: Expand population programs in the community, especially at the grassroots
level through religious leaders. The attention of parliamentarians in Muslim countries
or communities is directed to the ACFH Declaration of the International Congress on
Islam and Population Policy held in Indonesia in February, 1990.
Goal: Encourage private sector involvement in population programs.
Strategy: Create incentives and encourage the provision of family planning
information and contraceptives in the workplace.
Strategy: Establish/mandate promotion of contraceptives in commercial
enterprises.
Strategy: Create incentives for private sector research to advance the
development of new forms of contraception.
Strategy: Provide quality counseling to allay fears and misconceptions using
community leaders, non-governmental organizations and government
public health workers.
Goal: Encourage widest possible availability of contraceptive services, including
social marketing.
Strategy: Develop national media programs to promote family planning.
Strategy: Establish national programs to distribute family planning
information and contraceptive devices.
Goal: Promote family life and sex education for young people.
Strategy: Promote out of school programs for young people to provide sex
education and, where appropriate, contraceptive services.
Strategy: Establish national education programs that include course
requirements in sex education and family planning.
Goal: Target high-priority groups in national demography.
Strategy: Encourage programs to reduce teenage marriage and pregnancy
rates.
44
Goal: Share information with non-parliamentarians.
Strategy: Organize local conferences on population.
Strategy: Meet/write executive branch officials to encourage family planning
programs.
Strategy: Work with religious leaders.
International
Goal: Reinforce the Global Mexico City Population Policy.
Strategy: Create greater awareness of global population goals and policies
among parliamentarians everywhere and encourage greater support for these.
Strategy: Network information about program successes and needs with
other international parliamentarians.
Strategy: Increase international funding to assist in the production and
distribution of contraceptive commodities.
Strategy: Increase funding for international research to improve existing and
develop new methods for family planning and contraception.
Strategy: Establish sub-regional, regional and international information
networks to collect and disseminate information on family planning
programs.
Strategy: Encourage existing organizations to establish cooperative
international family planning programs.
Strategy: Fund and support international family planning information and
services to make family planning information and services widely available
in a manner which is sensitive to diverse cultural beliefs.
Strategy: In order to lower family size (number of births per family ) deemed
desirable for survival, support programs which promote human well-being,
development of human resources, and sustainable economic development
combined with environmental and ecological protection. (See Sustainable
Development Goals and Options.)
45
Deforestation and Desertification
46
DEFORESTATION AND DESERTIFICATION
Whereas:
Forests are disappearing in every part of the world as the result of human
activity driven by economic concerns;
Other regions are desertified by many factors, including drought and
subsistence agriculture. Desertification, as a result of physical, geographic, and
man-made developments, leads to the destruction of ecosystems, and to
deterioration of all forms of organic life;
The forests of the world, especially rainforests, are often complex ecosystems,
the loss of which is often irreversible. The short-term gain from their
destruction is frequently followed by permanent reduction of any other
economic potential;
Our advancing knowledge of the rainforests already shows that they can most
often produce more wealth if left intact for sustainable uses, than if they are
cut down, or burned, for short-term gain;
Land cleared through deforestation is in many regions unsuitable for ongoing
agriculture and exhausted within a few years, so that the deforestation leads
to no permanent gain, but rather could and often does lead, to a cycle of
growing economic costs, including flooding, disruption of hydrological cycles,
and, ultimately, in the some instances, desertification;
Sharply declining global acreages of forest, particularly through burning,
contribute to large numbers of environmental problems, including the
increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, reduced food production due
to erosion of soil, flooding, etc;
The destruction of forests and other habitats forever denies to humankind the
benefits derived from species of animals and plants that disappear in this
process, including especially plant species which may be essential for
improved crops for cultivation and those which may form the basis for
biotechnological application, medicine, and other scientific uses;
Deforestation, especially from burning, also results in significant release of
carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and a contribution to the greenhouse
effect that causes global warming;
Protection of existing forests from clearcutting and burning is more cost-
effective than reforestation; in addition to avoiding the expense of
reforestation, this performs important watershed protection functions,
preserves biological diversity, and reduces atmospheric carbon dioxide
emissions more effectively;
The economic impetus behind the destruction of rainforests often stems from
economic pressures caused by poverty and population growth, which leads to
land clearing and pressure on land resources for marginal agriculture;
Debt pressures in many developing countries are creating destructive pressures
on both forest and land resources;
International trade practices often play an important role in over-exploitation
of forest and land resources;
International lending institutions have contributed, often inadvertently, to
deforestation;
In many cases, excessive use of pesticides and other chemical substances has
reached a critical level, leading to depletion of soil fertility and soil
degradation that contributes to desertification;.
Loss of tree cover in arid and drought-prone areas causes soil erosion and
desertification, and creates fuelwood shortages that leads to further
deforestation;
47
The world's temperate forests are suffering extensive degradation from air
pollutants, often trans-boundary in origin. Large areas in many forests
subjected to such pollutants, as well as wood cutting and burning, have died
or suffered severe ill effects;
The role of women in rural societies has often been ignored by development
efforts, despite the fact that in many societies women are the main farmers
and fuelwood gatherers, acting through desperate poverty as the agents of
deforestation and desertification; and
The processes of deforestation and desertification occur locally but the
consequences are often global.
NOW, therefore, be it resolved that:
Governments seeking to protect the fundamental, long-term interests of their
people should seek to arrest deforestation and desertification and the reverse
their effects where possible;
This interest involves not only the direct responsibility of each government to
sustain forests and lands under its legal authority, but also a responsibility for
all governments to cooperate and to assist in this task as part of a global effort;
An international convention for the protection of all the world's forests, along
the lines of the International Whaling Convention, should be urgently
pursued. The importance of protecting both temperate and tropical forests
should be stressed, together with the specific responsibilities of both
developed and developing countries. Such a convention should recognize
the unique value of the remaining old growth, primary forests of the world,
and establish mechanisms and incentives for their protection. Specific targets
for reducing deforestation and goals for achieving reforestation should be
established;
Reversing deforestation in all nations is essential. In tropical areas this is
especially important in view of the contributions to greenhouse gas
emissions made by burning of forests, and in view of the unsustainability of
the agriculture and livestock practices in these areas of poor soils. The nations
of the world should work together to develop the incentives that will
encourage forest protection while assuring economic development of the
people in countries where these large tropical forest are located;
The important role of paper recycling in protecting forests -- by reducing
demand for tree cutting -- should be recognized, and nations should
encourage such recycling to the maximum extent possible.
Increased scientific knowledge will be needed to enable forests to survive the
impact of human activities, and to retard the spread of deserts. Major efforts
should be made to discover forest products, both timber and non-timber, that
can be harvested on a sustainable basis. New strains of crops suitable for arid
agriculture and marginal lands must be developed and disseminated.
Governments should provide resources for the accumulation of this
knowledge as a priority;
A strong emphasis on technical and financial assistance targeted to women is
essential, particularly in small-scale efforts and agricultural extension, in
order to provide them with alternatives to practices that exacerbate
deforestation and desertification;
Governments should also act to change the economic incentives which now
promote deforestation and desertification. At the national level, this will
require a mixture of tax incentives, new laws and regulation bearing on land
use, and in many cases land reform;
48
International trade agreements should take into account and attempt to reduce
their environmental impacts, especially those on forests and other natural
resources. Implementation of trade agreements should be monitored to
determine any negative effects on deforestation or land use practices that they
have;
In order to relieve the pressures on environment
and natural resources, especially in marginal lands, such as steep slopes, forests,
and arid lands, debt reduction measures should be pursued more vigorously,
both through bilateral and multilateral channels. This may include greater
use of debt-for-sustainable development designed to assure forest protection,
especially providing better economic alternatives. However, such transactions
should occur only when initiated by the debtor country, in order to avoid any
concerns about infringements on sovereignty;
Governments should adopt national accounting methods that reflect the loss of
forests and land resources as reductions in national wealth to be balanced
against monetary gains from their exploitation;
Sustainable methods of forest management must be developed and
implemented. In particular, the negative impacts on all types of forests of
destructive logging practices should be recognized and avoided.
The Tropical Forestry Action Plan should be supported, to achieve sustainable
management of forests and to improve forest protection and preservation of
nature reserves. It should be carefully monitored to assure that it is a
mechanism for developing better forest protection options;
Internationally, the role of many air pollutants, including acid precipitation, as
causes of trans-boundary forest deterioration should be recognized by
governments, and measures to reduce them should be pursued;
Development and dissemination of sustainable agricultural methods should be
a high priority in order to reduce causes of desertification, including soil
erosion, over-exploitation of fragile lands, over-grazing on rangelands, and
over-use of chemical inputs that can reduce long-term productivity of the
land;
Irrigation should be carefully designed to prevent the salinization and
waterlogging of the soil that results in desertification;
Fuelwood alternatives should be developed, especially through application of
renewable energy technologies that will facilitate development while
relieving pressures on tree cover that causes desertification;
Deforestation caused by fires-intentionally set for agricultural clearing or
otherwise-that go out of control has been extensive; forestry aid to countries
and communities should take into account the need for fire control
equipment and training;
Reforestation should be carried out using ecologically appropriate species and
methods, choosing those that are appropriate to site-specific conditions;
Combatting desertification outside the forest zones requires introduction of
new systems of agriculture, reduced use of chemical herbicides and pesticides,
protection of soil from erosion and secondary salinization, and sound
rangeland management;
Desertification control through better water management and water research
should be a goal of government policies and international assistance;
Technical and financial resources specifically targeted at forest and rangeland
preservation, rehabilitation, and reforestation must be provided. The
developed nations have a particular responsibility to provide assistance, both
bilaterally and through multilateral lending institutions, for such purposes.
This should include greater use of "debt-for-nature" swaps;
49
All financial assistance, both bilateral and multilateral, should avoid negative
impacts on forest and other natural resources;
In order to facilitate increased private sector involvement in reforestation,
lending practices should recognize the very long-term nature of such
investments, and should be designed to provide a moratorium on payments
for the first ten years, or until reforested areas are able to produce income; and
Public environmental education, that includes the important role of forest and
rangeland protection in a healthy environment, should be established in
every country.
50
DEFORESTATION AND DESERTIFICATION
Legislative Strategies
National Actions
Establish a national forest protection goal with research, education, and operational
programs. In order to develop effective policies concerning deforestation and
desertification, many of the gaps currently existing in our knowledge of the subjects
will have to be filled. Research and programs aimed at preservation and restoration
of forests, rangelands, and croplands are needed. Programs to educate citizens about
reasons for not deforesting and about alternatives to current practices are necessary,
along with citizen participation in developing the best methods of implementing the
goals.
Goal: Preserve existing forest cover.
Strategy: Develop natural forest management techniques.
Strategy: Establish protected areas, including intact biosystem reserves.
Strategy: Develop selective timber harvesting techniques.
Strategy: Establish and implement economically viable, non-timber-
producing options, including tourism.
Strategy: Pursue reductions in ozone depletion and air pollution, both
of which adversely affect forest cover.
Strategy: Link forest protection values to watershed management
programs.
Goal: Restore forest cover in deforested areas.
Strategy: Reforest tropical and other wooded areas.
Strategy: Develop tree planting programs.
Goal: Develop explicit sustained-yield timber harvest management policies.
Strategy: Improve timber valuation, utilization and marketing to capture
real values of timber and to reduce waste.
Strategy: Regulate timber sale practices, including foreign concession contract
terms.
Goal: Ensure that national economic policies promote sustained-yield management
of forests and land resources as well as long-term preservation of forests.
Strategy: Include evaluations of social and biological costs of
deforestation/reforestation in economic analyses of development projects
and policies.
51
Strategy: Review financial and economic incentives to deforest, including tax
breaks, subsidized interest rates, and guaranteed loans, and, where possible,
eliminate them.
Strategy: Provide incentives, such as tax credits and other financing
mechanisms, for restoration and for sustainable uses of forests and semi-arid
areas.
Strategy: Develop alternative sources of employment and income outside
forests, to relieve pressure on existing forests and marginal lands.
Strategy: Work with farmers, peasants, small landowners, and indigenous
people through community participation in local strategies for economic
development, sustainable land use management, and environmental
protection. This might include measures such improved credit, guaranteed
loans, land grants, and market incentives.
Goal: Include the use of agroforestry in basic agricultural goal.
Strategy: Develop a research program on agroforestry.
Strategy: Establish optional combined production recommendations for crops
and trees, in a non-destructive sustainable manner, while meeting basic
needs for food, fuel, and timber
Strategy: Develop improved cropland management practices, which include
agroforestry, and require their use.
Goal: Establish and strengthen educational and research programs.
Strategy: Establish and fund forest resource inventories.
Strategy: Develop research on alternative/renewable fuels, to substitute for
wood now used for cooking and heat. Research increased cooking stove
efficiency, wind and other renewable energy sources.
Strategy: Develop education programs to illustrate suggested alternatives to
current practices and illustrate current practices which are successful.
Strategy: Develop land use planning standards which incorporate
environmental incentives for preserving, restoring and improving land
productivity for forests. These should be consistent with sustainable
development and biological diversity.
Strategy: Promote the recycling of wood products, e.g. newsprint.
Goal: Restore degraded land.
Strategy: Restore and rehabilitate current desert areas and other degraded
drylands.
Strategy: Develop improved rangeland management practices, e.g.,
prohibition of agriculture and grazing in certain areas, reseeding, low-input
agriculture, sustainable annual cropping, improved cultivation practices, and
52
planting of shelterbelts.
Goal: Promote effective conservation financing techniques.
Strategy: Support the development of Conservation Trust Funds, to finance
protection, enforcement, training, education programs, land swaps, park
establishment, relocation, etc.
Strategy: Pursue debt-for-nature swaps.
International Actions
Goal: Promote, support, and become involved in international cooperative
activities.
Strategy: Support Debt-For-Nature swaps, which can dramatically increase
the impact of conservation expenditures.
Strategy: Explore other debt-reduction measures for countries with
endangered forests.
Strategy: Review objectives of FAO-initiated Tropical Forestry Action Plan to
ensure that action plans can be shown to decrease deforestation. Monitor the
extent the activities can be shown to promote reduction of deforestation and
the sustainable use of the world's forests.
Strategy: Support work of International Tropical Timber Organization, which
involves sustained yield forest management and forest conservation.
Strategy: Revitalize the U.N.'s 1977 Plan of Action to Combat Desertification,
dealing with ecologically appropriate land uses and recovery measures.
Strategy: Cooperate in the use of satellites and other modern technology to
monitor the world's forests and dry rangelands, and trends towards further
desertification.
Strategy: Create global conservation or environment funding mechanisms
through the World Bank, UN organizations, or an independent mechanism.
Strategy: Support activities of non-governmental organizations (NGOs)
involved in forestry activities in both industrialized countries and the
developing world.
Goal: Become signatory to and support international environmental treaties and
conventions.
Strategy: Sign and support international conservation treaties and
conventions, such as World Heritage, Convention on Trade in Endangered
Species and World Flora and Fauna (CITES), Ramsar Convention, etc.
Strategy: Encourage timber conservation components of international
commodity groups.
53
Goal: Establish environmental criteria for economic assistance programs and
institutions.
Strategy: Increase pressure on national overseas development agencies and
multilateral development banks to develop more effective environmental
guidelines and to support ecologically sound projects, and, conversely, to end
those projects which directly or indirectly promote deforestation or damage
critical areas of high biological richness.
Strategy: Provide effective technical assistance and other bilateral assistance
to research and other programs assisting forestry and drylands activities in
developing countries.
Goal: Explore other economic pressures and sanctions.
Strategy: Explore transfer taxes or tariffs imposed on underpriced
commodities imported from another country.
Strategy: Require country-of-origin labelling provisions for such underpriced
commodities.
54
Safeguarding Oceans and
Water Resources
55
SAFEGUARDING OCEANS AND WATER RESOURCES
Whereas:
The global water cycle is essential to life on earth;
The scale of human activity has caused changes at every level of this cycle:
polluting the earth's water and oceans; endangering human health; shifting
the distribution of water by large-scale development; and reducing aquatic life
due to pollution, over-harvesting, destruction of habitats, and alteration of
ecosystems on local, regional, and global scales;
The best way to protect water resources is to keep pollution from entering
waters;
High-seas driftnet fishing and other destructive activities disrupt marine life
throughout the world's oceans;
and
Short-term economic benefits from exploitation of ocean and water resources
deprive future generations, diminish the quality of life, disrupt international
stability and global security, and even threaten life itself.
NOW, therefore, be it resolved that:
It is in our interest and that of future generations to address the exploitation of
ocean and water resources to prevent further irrevocable damage;
Ocean and water resources are so important to life that a precautionary
approach should be used in allowing discharge of potentially harmful
pollutants and wastes. Where there is reason to believe that adverse effects of
discharges are likely, even in the face of scientific uncertainty, such discharges
should be prohibited;
Policies must be adopted to stop pollution at its source, with highest priority
placed on measures that prevent the creation and dispersal of environmental
contaminants;
Changing our practices requires strengthening and enforcing environmental
laws on all levels, based on equity within and between communities, regions
and nations and on the requirement that these resources be managed in such
a way that they may be bequeathed in a healthy condition.
Policies must be adopted that ensure future land development in a manner
sustainable to the global water cycle;
56
Worldwide efforts should be made to develop and share new practices and
technologies that minimize pollutants resulting from industrial, agricultural,
and other human activities;
Polluters should pay for the control of pollution and the damages they cause.
But this principle is not sufficient to protect oceans and freshwater. It must be
accompanied by incentives or fee systems to prevent overuse and exploitation
of water resources;
Expand international programs of research and technology development to
protect, manage and restore our marine and freshwater resources. These
programs should be internationally funded and should ensure the active
participation by developing countries. The need for further research should
not be used as an excuse to delay protective actions;
and
Establish strong international systems for monitoring and enforcement of
international conventions, treaties, and laws and for the protection of ocean
and water resources.
AND in furtherance of these goals, be it resolved that nations join together in
international convention and by individual action in an effort to:
Properly treat and disinfect sewage and sludge before discharge to the water or
land or use for agriculture or other purposes;
Establish policies and programs to:
-- minimize the use of toxic substances and the generation of toxic wastes,
including bans on certain chemicals that are highly toxic;
-- clean up abandoned hazardous waste sites to prevent contamination of
surface and ground waters; and
-- implement the Basel Convention regarding the international
transportation and management of hazardous waste;
Prohibit ocean dumping of harmful or potentially harmful wastes;
Limit urban and agricultural runoff containing harmful substances through
land use controls and agricultural practices that minimize the use of
fertilizers and pesticides and control soil erosion;
Establish policies to avert and respond to oil spills and regulate offshore drilling
discharges by:
-- increasing penalties and liability for spills at the national and international
levels;
-- requiring double hulls and bottoms for oil tankers and improving navigation
and licensing requirements;
57
-- establishing an international fund for emergency response and clean up of oil
spills and compensation for damages that result from spills to be paid for by a
fee on oil from exporting and consuming countries.
Reduce the use of plastics and properly dispose of plastics and other debris to
prevent pollution to beaches, oceans and coastal waters and reduce the threat
to marine life.
Prevent acid rain by promoting energy efficiency and conservation and
requiring pollution control technologies on power plants, industry and
automobiles;
Require multilateral development banks to fully assess environmental impacts
and to fund projects that are environmentally sustainable;
Develop and implement comprehensive national and international plans to
manage activities in the coastal zone with particular emphasis on the
relationship of land use practices to coastal degradation;
Seek unilateral and cooperative measures to;
- minimize sea level rise;
-- mitigate impacts on low lying countries of increases in sea level that may
occur from environmental changes already in motion; and
-- direct development away from areas susceptible to sea level rise;
Protect marine biodiversity and productivity by developing mechanisms to
preserve sensitive coastal areas such as wetlands, barrier islands, estuaries,
coral reefs, and other critical wildlife habitats;
Establish regional regimes for effective sustainable management of
international fishery resources, and in particular, ban high-seas driftnet
fishing;
Strongly limit the taking of marine mammals by banning commercial whaling
and reducing whaling under scientific permit;
Use freshwater more efficiently through conservation and recycling;
Establish international agreements for the extraction,use, and protection of
freshwaters shared between nations;
and
Protect groundwater resources by limiting withdrawals to sustainable levels
and controlling major activities, such as land development and discharges
that may contaminate important aquifers.
Be it also resolved that:
58
As Antarctica plays a significant role in the global climate system and the
aquatic food chain, provide comprehensive and effective protection of the
Antarctic ecosystem by:
- granting Antarctica special protective status as a Land of Science, treaty park,
and international wilderness area;
- extending the current moratorium on mineral exploration and negotiating
a total ban on exploration and exploitation of mineral and energy
resources in Antarctica;
-- adopting specific environmental protection measures until a
comprehensive environmental protection regime can be negotiated to
control tourism, waste disposal, oil spills, research activities, and to extend
protected areas;
and
We encourage parliamentarians to return to their respective nations and
propose domestic legislation that would prohibit all exploitation of Antarctica
until a new convention is signed.
59
SAFEGUARDING OCEANS AND WATER RESOURCES
Legislative Strategies
National Actions
I. Water Quality
Pollution threatens future use and productivity of waters. Contaminants include
toxic chemicals, microorganisms, nutrients, oil and grease, plastics, and litter.
Pollutants enter aquatic environments predominantly from land-based municipal,
agricultural and industrial sources and are primarily a result of human activities
involving use of the land and waste disposal. Pollution is best controlled by
preventing contaminants from entering surface waters, groundwater, estuaries or
oceans. Treatment of contaminated waters is often difficult, particularly in the case of
groundwater.
Pollution has serious adverse effects on human health. Water-borne pathogens
(bacteria and viruses) cause human illness when ingested in contaminated shellfish,
drinking or bathing water and lead to diseases such as cholera, typhoid, dysentery,
gastroenteritis, and hepatitis. Nitrate-contaminated drinking water, from fertilizers
and sewage disposal, is responsible for serious illness in humans. Toxic chemicals in
drinking water can cause acute illness and increase the risk of chronic disease, such
as cancer.
In addition pollution is harmful to fish and wildlife. Excessive nutrients
(phosphorous and nitrogen) lead to eutrophication, or aging of lakes, streams, and
estuaries, in which excessive algal growth depletes oxygen, kills fish and degrades
drinking water supplies. Toxics contaminate aquatic organisms causing acute (short-
term) impacts including death and chronic impacts (disease). Toxic chemicals are
often harmful at low levels, and may persist in the environment for many years.
Ocean and water resources are so important to life that a precautionary approach
should be used in allowing discharge of potentially harmful pollutants and wastes.
Where there is reason to believe that adverse effects of discharges are likely, even in
the face of scientific uncertainty, such discharges should be prohibited.
Polluters should pay for the control of pollution and the damages they cause. But
this principle is not sufficient to protect oceans and freshwater. It must be
accompanied by incentives such as a fee system to prevent overuse and exploitation
of water resources.
There is continuing need for international programs of research and technology
development and transfer to protect, manage and restore our marine and freshwater
resources. The program should be internationally funded and should ensure the
active participation by developing countries. However, the need for further research
should not be used as an excuse to delay protective actions.
There must be a strong international program for monitoring and enforcement of
international conventions, treaties, and laws for the protection of ocean and water
resources.
Goal: Improve sewage treatment. Sewage discharges may release pathogens,
60
nutrients, and, in many cases, toxics to waters. Control will require proper treatment
and disposal of sewage along with monitoring and closing contaminated waters to
drinking, bathing, and fishing.
Strategy: Eliminate discharges of raw sewage.
Strategy: Upgrade all sewage plants to at least secondary treatment.
Strategy: Require proper operation and maintenance of sewage treatment
plants.
Strategy: Promote low technology methods to cycle sewage nutrients
especially in conjunction with aquaculture and/or irrigated agriculture. It is
important that the sewage not be contaminated with toxic substances.
Strategy: Disinfect sewage effluent to kill pathogens. Assess technologies and
make information available to all nations.
Strategy: Ensure proper disposal of sewage sludge. Evaluate methods
including incineration, ocean disposal and landfill.
Strategy: Establish water quality and discharge standards to restrict pollutant
discharges from sewage treatment plants.
Strategy: Limit growth where sewage treatment capabilities are at or near
capacity.
Strategy: Monitor waters to assure that standards are met.
Strategy: Prohibit new or increased discharges of pollution from sewage
plants that would cause a violation of water quality standards.
Strategy: Eliminate combined sewage overflows and separate stormwater
treatment from sewage treatment so that raw sewage is not allowed to bypass
treatment plants.
Strategy: Strengthen industrial waste pretreatment programs to prevent toxic
wastes from harming or interfering with proper functioning of sewage
treatment plants or contributing to violation of water quality standards.
Goal: Eliminate toxic pollution. Toxic chemicals enter waters in effluent discharges
from industrial and household sources, nonpoint source runoff, and from improper
disposal of hazardous wastes. Prolonged exposure even to small doses of heavy
metals, organic compounds, pesticides and other toxic chemicals can cause a variety
of health and welfare problems for humans and aquatic organisms. Toxic chemicals
build up in the tissues of humans and animals, working their way up the food chain
from tiny plankton to humans as larger organisms consume smaller ones. Toxics
also have a high affinity for sediments and tend to accumulate there over time,.
Toxic muds can reach high concentrations, are deadly to the benthic biota, and can
act as a long term source of toxins in the water column.
Strategy: Set as the highest priority, to establish preventive measures to
reduce formation and use of toxics.
61
Strategy: Establish and enforce water quality and effluent standards to
prevent discharge of toxic chemicals from industrial sources.
Strategy: Issue and enforce permits that limit toxic discharges with firm goals
of zero discharge.
Strategy: Monitor waters and discharges to assure that standards are met.
Strategy: Require proper disposal of hazardous wastes.
Strategy: Establish fiscal and tax incentives for reduction, recovery and reuse
of waste toxics.
Strategy: Strive for worldwide bans on certain chemicals that are highly toxic.
Strategy: Set international standards and establish international monitoring
networks.
Strategy: Impose and enforce economic and criminal penalties for violation
of effluent limits.
Strategy: Clean up old or abandoned hazardous waste sites that may be
leaking toxic chemicals into surface and ground waters.
Strategy: Clean up leaking underground storage tanks that hold petroleum
and other products and initiate regulations to ensure that such products are
properly stored.
Strategy: Control runoff from factories, storage areas, etc.
Goal: Protect oceans from harmful or potentially harmful wastes. One important
and relatively easy way to manage sources of ocean pollution is to prohibit deliberate
at-sea disposal of wastes that degrade the marine environment. Included among
these are toxic industrial wastes, radioactive waste, sewage sludge, toxic incinerator
ash, and contaminated dredged materials. At-sea incineration of hazardous wastes
may pollute the sea through deposition of airborne toxics, ash disposal, or spills in
transportation.
Strategy: Ratify and enforce the Basel Convention on the Control of
Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Waste and Their Disposal.
Strategy: Eliminate ocean disposal of sewage sludge and municipal,
hazardous, and radioactive wastes.
Strategy: Eliminate at-sea incineration of hazardous wastes.
Strategy: Phase out disposal of contaminated dredge spoils and establish
water and sediment quality programs to prevent further toxification of
sediments during phase out.
Goal: Control urban runoff. Rainfall runoff from urban areas contributes vast
amounts of sediment, nutrients, bacteria, and toxic chemicals (organics, heavy
metals, oil and grease) that pollute waterways. Necessary control programs range
from simple maintenance efforts such as street sweeping to construction of projects
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that will prevent polluted runoff from entering nearby streams.
Strategy: Implement land use controls, including zoning and comprehensive
planning; site planning; building codes; special area and resource protection
zones; acquisition and conservation easements; and coastal zone
management programs.
Strategy: Create riparian buffer zones; control overdevelopment; protect
sensitive aquifers, wetlands, and other critical areas; and evaluate and
mitigate cumulative impacts of existing and proposed developments in a
watershed.
Strategy: Establish effective urban stormwater management programs that
address both existing and future development; include design standards and
performance standards to ensure compliance with water quality standards;
and prevent runoff through site designs that use proper drainage patterns and
open space, retention and detention basins.
Strategy: Establish erosion and sediment controls that require diversion
structures to channel runoff away from disturbed surfaces; retention or
treatment of any contaminated runoff; rapid and permanent stabilization of
disturbed surfaces; and best management practices to prevent contamination
of runoff by construction chemicals or other materials.
Strategy: Adopt erosion and sediment control regulations that ensure that a
control plan is developed before construction begins; inspections are carried
out at construction sites; and administrative penalties, stop work orders, and
enforcement actions may be pursued.
Strategy: Educate the public to minimize the use of polluting chemicals
around the house and yard.
Strategy: Develop technologies to recycle waste oils and grease.
Goal: Control runoff from agricultural and range lands. Runoff from croplands
treated with fertilizers and pesticides and from lands used to raise domestic animals
is a major contributor of nutrients (nitrates and phosphates), sediment, toxins, and
microorganisms to the aquatic environment. Effective control programs restrict the
amount of pollutants available to transport and reduce the exposure of these
pollutants to waters.
Strategy: Establish programs which include design standards that require or
prohibit certain practices and performance standards that prohibit any
significant off-site transfer of pollutants.
Strategy: Restrict the amount or timing of fertilizer and manure applied.
Strategy: Educate farmers on agricultural practices that minimize the use of
fertilizers and pesticides, and control soil erosion.
Strategy: Expand research on low-input methods of agricultural production.
Strategy: Require vegetated buffer strips along surface waters.
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Strategy: Develop programs that address livestock pollution by controlling
livestock densities and locations and preventing livestock access to riparian
areas.
Strategy: Establish programs to address pesticide pollution by controlling the
amount, timing, and type of pesticide used.
Strategy: Create funds through multilateral development banks and other
development organizations to promote transfer of agricultural technologies
to developing countries.
Strategy: Control pesticide pollution by taxes on pesticide sale and
manufacture, and through pesticide registration and reporting requirements.
Strategy: Examine current practices to try to discourage overuse of fertilizers
or pesticides.
Strategy: Develop new technologies to reduce dependence on fertilizers and
pesticides.
Strategy: Eliminate or reduce subsidies that promote overproduction and
farming on erodable or marginal lands.
Goal: Avert oil spills and regulate offshore drilling discharges. Oil spills have
devastating effects on aquatic ecosystems: polluting beaches, destroying habitats,
killing fish, waterfowl, benthic organisms, and marine mammals, and inhibiting
spawning and growth of fish. Offshore drilling operations generate large quantities
of waste materials that are discharged to surrounding waters.
Strategy: Close sensitive areas to oil and gas development and insist on strict
tanker traffic control patterns within designated areas.
Strategy: Increase penalties and liability at the national and international
levels.
Strategy: Improve tanker design, construction, navigation and licensing
requirements.
Strategy: Require double hulls/bottoms for vessels carrying oil and refined
products.
Strategy: Develop regional or international contingency plans to address
potential oil spills.
Strategy: Promote energy efficiency to reduce the demand for oil.
Strategy: Institute operating and licensing requirements for offshore drilling
and terminals.
Strategy: Prohibit discharge of drilling and production waste in sensitive
offshore areas.
Strategy: Reduce the number of processing, storing, and transfer facilities by
encouraging common use.
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Strategy: Guarantee that ships, sailing in environmentally vulnerable coastal
areas, with hazardous cargo, are guided by persons with knowledge of local
conditions.
Strategy: Develop an international marking system for transported oil that
would identify the source of a spill.
Strategy: Create an international treaty and funding mechanism to pay for
the preparation for, response to, and cleanup of oil spills.
Goal: Prevent plastics and debris pollution of beaches and ocean and coastal waters.
The haphazard disposal of plastic material on land and from ships results in littering
of beaches and seriously damages marine life, particularly sea mammals, diving
birds, and reptiles. These may be injured by the ingestion of plastic fragments, or
entrapped in plastic packing and fishing gear. Enforcement of existing regulations on
land and at sea, and increased public education, should reduce considerably the
amount of plastic refuse, while better design and more frugal utilization of plastics
for packing and fishing purposes would reduce the risk to aquatic organisms.
Strategy: Prohibit disposal of plastics from vessels and sewers.
Strategy: Reduce usage of disposable plastics (e.g. 6-pack holders) through
recycling programs or substitution of more environmentally compatible
material.
Strategy: Adhere to MARPOL Annex V Protocol and ensure that adequate
terminal facilities and receptacles are provided for proper disposal of vessel
generated garbage.
Strategy: Enforce littering fines on beaches.
Strategy: Regularly remove debris that is floating or has washed up on shore.
Strategy: Regulate disposal of medical waste and enforce laws against illegal
disposal.
Strategy: Initiate further consideration of and research into the development
of biodegradable products.
Goal: Prevent acid rain. Acid deposition, caused by the atmospheric transformation
and long-range transport of emissions from fossil fuel power plants and other
sources, causes widespread damage to lakes, streams and aquatic organisms, as well
as crops, forests, statues and buildings. Nitrogenous components of acid rain are a
major source of eutrophication in coastal waters.
Strategy: Promote energy efficiency and conservation and develop least cost
energy plans.
Strategy: Reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide and oxides of nitrogen by
switching to low sulfur fuels or using scrubbers or other technologies to clean
emissions.
Strategy: Develop international goals and timetables to reduce emissions of
pollutants that contribute to acid rain.
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Strategy: Promote and coordinate research and development into new
technologies and share technologies internationally.
Strategy: Tighten auto emissions, promote alternative fuels, and encourage
car pooling and mass transportation.
Goal: Consider environmental effects of projects. Massive development or public
works projects often create adverse effects on nearby lakes and streams, through
runoff and physical alteration of the aquatic, stream and wildlife habitat, while
planning for such projects - whether by government or private citizens - frequently
fails to take into account unintended environmental impacts.
Strategy: Establish criterion of sustainable development for approval of large-
scale development and public works.
Strategy: Require environmental impact assessments during the planning of
large-scale development and public works projects to identify and prevent
harmful environmental effects.
Strategy: Allow for full and adequate public participation in planning
projects and allow for citizen suits to challenge the adequacy of planning and
environmental assessments.
Strategy: Consider the effects of all development in the watershed.
Strategy: Continue to pressure multilateral development banks, such as the
IMF and World Bank, to include environmental assessments in the loan
decision-making process and to fund environment and conservation
projects..
Strategy: Encourage developers to incorporate measures to mitigate harmful
environmental effects of their projects.
II. OCEANS AND COASTAL WATERS
While large disasters such as the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska attract world
attention, it is the routine assaults to the marine environment that are the most
damaging. In addition to pollution and waste disposal discussed in the previous
section, the assaults to oceans and estuaries come from coastal population and
development, destruction of important habitat, overharvesting of living marine
resources, and sea level rise.
Goal: Implement coastal zone management. The coastal zone is a unique region
with resources that require special attention. About half of the world's population
lives along the coast, creating enormous pressures from activities such as
development and waste disposal. Many countries have instituted comprehensive
management programs for the coasts that consider a variety of land- and water-
based activities and their relationship to coastal resources.
Strategy: Develop economic or broad scope plans for sustainable fisheries,
ports and shipping, transportation, agriculture, tourism, and industry in the
coastal zone that take into account the need to protect important coastal
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resources.
Strategy: Participate in UNEP's Regional Seas Program to improve a nation's
institutional capability, data base, and financial support for management and
research in transboundary issues such as marine pollution, fisheries
protection and storm forecasting.
Strategy: Develop national, state or local land use plans, including maps,
policies, guidelines, legally binding zoning ordinances, and special restrictions
or setback requirements.
Strategy: Develop integrated resource management plans that consider
combined effects of cross sectoral projects on coastal environments and any
cascading effects from one ecosystem into another.
Strategy: Eliminate subsidies that encourage coastal development. Assess
environmental impacts of coastal development projects.
Strategy: Establish mechanisms to protect critical coastal areas such as
wetlands, barrier islands, coral reefs, and endangered species habitats.
Strategy: Establish evacuation plans for severe storms.
Strategy: Establish monitoring programs to identify sources, fates, and effects
of pollutants, and to assess the effectiveness of management efforts.
Strategy: Establish coastal special area acquisition programs.
Strategy: Develop coastal atlases or data banks.
Goal: Minimize and protect against sea level rise. Global warming may cause sea
levels to rise as a result of thermal expansion and melting of polar ice caps. If current
estimates are correct, sea level rise could displace millions of people, destroy large
acreages of arable lands, and completely eliminate some low-lying countries. Rising
seas could also destroy beaches, mangroves, and wetlands; inundate valuable
shoreline property; and cause saltwater intrusion into coastal freshwater aquifers.
Severe storms and droughts would occur more frequently. Engineers and managers
will have to choose between fortifying the shoreline through expensive construction
projects or abandoning inundated areas. Either option carries great social and
economic costs.
Strategy: Research, develop, and implement effective cooperative measures
to minimize or eliminate the impact of any sea level rise in low lying island
countries and areas.
Strategy: Identify areas susceptible to sea level rise.
Strategy: Develop national and regional strategies to prevent development
that would be seriously affected by anticipated sea level rise.
Strategy: Direct new development away from areas threatened by storm
surges.
Strategy: Discourage rebuilding in coastal areas that are susceptible to sea
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level rise and have been severely damaged by storms.
Goal: Protect Antarctica. While the continent of Antarctica and the surrounding
Southern Ocean remains among the earth's last unspoiled ecosystems, this status is
threatened by a number of current and future activities. Improper waste disposal
practices, overfishing and the potential for minerals development all could
undermine the viability and integrity of the Antarctic ecosystem. These problems,
though diverse in nature, can only be adequately addressed through a unified and
comprehensive approach. The uniquely international nature of Antarctic policy
presents numerous obstacles to effective environmental protection, but at the same
time offers unparalleled opportunity for creative solutions. If adopted together, the
options listed below could provide a framework for lasting protection of Antarctica.
Strategy: Support the negotiation of a Comprehensive Environmental
Protection regime within the Antarctic Treaty System to provide an effective
integrated approach to environmental protection in the Antarctic while
continuing to negotiate and implement specific environmental protection
measures that are necessary in the immediate future.
Strategy: Adopt a Conservation Strategy within the Convention for the
Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) to ensure the
health of the marine ecosystem.
Strategy: Grant Antarctica special protective status as a Land of Science,
Antarctic Treaty park, and international wilderness reserve.
Strategy: Urgently negotiate a ban on prospecting, exploration and
development of mineral and energy resources within the Antarctic Treaty
Area. Oppose international agreements that would open the door to mineral
prospecting and likely future exploitation in Antarctica.
Strategy: Call for the extension of the current voluntary moratorium on all
Antarctic minerals activities until a Comprehensive Environmental
Protection regime is in place which must include a permanent ban on
mineral and energy exploration and extraction activities.
Strategy: Allow activities only if not harmful to the ecosystem based on best
available scientific data and through comprehensive environmental impact
assessment and monitoring procedures which should be applied to all
human activities in Antarctica.
Strategy: Ensure that environmental protection measures adopted under the
Antarctic Treaty are implemented and enforced by national research
programs.
Strategy: Limit the amount and type of materials brought to Antarctica,
increase recycling, and removal of waste from the Treaty area. Phase out
incineration, open burning, landfilling, and dumping of untreated sewage
and other waste and hazardous materials into the Antarctic environment
from land or from ships, with strict controls on navigation and discharge
from vessels.
Strategy: Extend national environmental policies to national facilities and
activities in Antarctica.
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Strategy: Encourage sharing of Antarctic research facilities to avoid
overcrowding of stations and unnecessary environmental impacts.
Strategy: Institute strict guidelines for tourist activities to reduce hazards to
wildlife and habitat. Oppose land-based tourist operations as being inherently
too damaging to the environment.
Strategy: Combat overfishing and allow depleted finfish stocks to recover.
Impose a moratorium on all finfishing in the Southern Ocean until a
Conservation Strategy is adopted. Cap krill harvesting at current levels and
contain this fishery to areas monitored under CCAMLR.
Strategy: Expand the Antarctic Treaty's system of protected areas with
appropriate involvement of nongovernmental organizations and see that
areas are well marked and that management plans are followed.
Strategy: Require long-term environmental monitoring efforts to identify
and anticipate environmental problems
Goal: Manage fisheries. The global yield of marine fisheries reached a record level of
84.5 million tons in 1987, up from 21 million tons in 1951. Scientists estimate the
oceans can sustain a 100 million ton commercial fishery, but pollution, waste, and
habitat loss may reduce this yield. Meanwhile, world demand is expected to double
by the year 2000. The increasing sophistication of fisheries technology and the
expanding scope of fishing activities are exerting enormous pressures on the world's
living marine resources. Overfishing has depleted a number of valuable fishery
resources, while sewage pollution has made some shellfish unfit for human
consumption. Highly productive estuaries and coastal waters are increasingly
degraded, and marine resources could eventually be damaged on a global scale. In
addition, the expansion of mariculture and aquaculture must minimize local
pollution, preserve e ecological balance, and protect against introduction of exotic
species and diseases.
Strategy: Assess stocks using catch-per-unit effort data or independent
assessments to evaluate stock status. Establish vessel onboard and shoreside
observer programs to provide data on harvested stocks. Include observer
programs as an important element of international living marine resource
conventions and agreements.
Strategy: Set a goal of sustainable development for all fisheries and develop
regulations and economic incentives to achieve that goal. Develop
management plans that separate stock conservation determinations from
allocation decisions. Work towards regional or international management of
all transboundary and highly migratory stocks.
Strategy: Strengthen conservation efforts through international fisheries
agreements and conventions.
Strategy: Stop overfishing by evaluating the effectiveness of alternative
forms of limited entry, limited access, and individually transferrable quotas.
Institute gear, area, time, or harvestable size restriction to control stock
exploitation whenever necessary. Prevent overcapitalization by eliminating
subsidies for fishing vessel construction.
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Strategy: Identify and protect critical habitat, especially breeding areas. Create
marine reserves in areas where there are problems of overexploitation.
Strategy: Develop international standards for aquaculture operations.
Strategy: Provide for enforcement of restrictions, guidelines, and standards
including sanctions and penalties sufficient to deter continued undesirable
activities. Increase cooperative monitoring and enforcement agreements
between nations.
Strategy: Ban the use of large-scale driftnets and other inefficient and
wasteful techniques on the high-seas of the world's oceans. Work to secure
bans on driftnet fishing through existing regional and international
management regimes, such as the United Nations resolution "Large-scale
driftnet fishing and its impacts on the living marine resources of the world's
oceans and seas", the International North Pacific Fisheries Commission,
Convention to Prevent Driftnet Fishing in the South Pacific, The
International Convention for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas, etc. Press
for statistically valid observer programs on the high seas driftnet fleets to
provide complete data for moratoria decisions scheduled for 1991.
Strategy: Develop and enforce effective sustainable management regimes for
highly migratory fish stocks, such as albacore tuna, on a regional basis.
Strategy: Minimize by-catch of non-target species by technological advances
in gear engineering, more efficient harvesting methods, and economic
incentives.
Strategy: Invest in research and development of ecologically sound fishing
technology.
Strategy: Clean up sources that pollute shellfish beds.
Strategy: Support full funding for national and international fisheries
research.
Goal: Protect marine biodiversity. The ocean is home to the broadest variety of
organisms on earth. Coastal marine ecosystems are rapidly becoming biologically
impoverished due to the widespread effects of pollution and overharvesting. New
fishing technologies threaten the variety of life in numerous marine ecosystems.
Coral reefs are perhaps the most acutely endangered of all marine systems - due to
pollution, runoff from deforestation, overfishing, and rises in sea temperatures.
Coastal wetlands are also critically threatened, often due to development activities in
the coastal zone.
Strategy: Protect critical habitat by establishing protected areas and marine
sanctuaries.
Strategy: Give protected area status to important coral reefs.
Strategy: Establish national programs to preserve, protect, and enhance
wetlands, estuaries, and other important habitat.
Strategy: Establish economic incentives for protection of critical habitat and
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disincentives for its destruction. Remove economic incentives that promote
unwise coastal development.
Strategy: Encourage direct acquisition of important habitat and consider use
of conservation easements.
Strategy: Establish international recovery programs for endangered marine
species.
Strategy: Eliminate trade in endangered species by establishing effective
international sanction provisions capable of enforcement against offending
nations, corporation, or individuals.
Strategy: Identify and protect critical habitat for endangered species.
Strategy: Increase international attention to the aggressive and timely listing
of marine species in need of added protection.
Strategy: Support efforts of international organizations such as the
International Whaling Commission (IWC) to limit taking of marine
mammals Participate in international observer programs. Strengthen the
IWC's current moratorium on whaling into a ban, and reduce whaling
activities outside the ban, in particular, reduce whaling under scientific
permit.
Strategy: Support research on biological diversity in ocean ecosystems.
Strategy: Consider biological diversity as a component of environmental
impact assessments.
III. FRESHWATER SCARCITY
Freshwater is an increasingly scarce resource due to the growing demands generated
by population growth, urbanization, industrialization, and irrigation. Competition
between domestic and agricultural uses and conflicts between countries are likely
outcomes of this scarcity. Areas including northern China, northern Africa, parts of
India, Mexico, the Middle East, and parts of the Western United States may
experience severe water shortages as early as this decade. Traditional engineering
solutions, including building dams, drilling wells, and conducting interbasin
transfers of water are often costly and environmentally damaging, and therefore,
these concerns must be balanced against the need for the project. Faced with
increasing shortages, nations must work toward better management of existing
supplies, recognizing that each country has unique problems. Conservation and
recycling can provide water at lower cost and with less environmental damage than
developing new sources even for nations that have abundant supplies.
Goal: Use water more efficiently. By increasing water productivity -- the benefit
gained from each liter used -- food production, industrial output, and cities can
expand without a parallel increase in waters demands. Investments in water
efficiency, recycling, and conservation can increasingly yield more usable water per
dollar than can conventional water supply projects. But their potential is severely
undermined by pricing policies and water laws that encourage inefficiency and
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waste. Removing these institutional barriers is crucial to expand the many new
water-conserving methods now in limited use. Only by managing water demand,
rather than ceaselessly striving to meet it, is there hope for a truly secure and
sustainable water future.
Strategy: In developed countries, use water pricing to manage demand.
Remove, where possible, public subsidies of water. Set price at the marginal
cost - the cost of delivering additional water from the best available source.
Strategy: Establish water markets that allow water or water rights to be
transferred between willing buyers and sellers.
Strategy: Where appropriate, establish regional water programs where one
user can "loan" water to others in years when they do not need the water.
Strategy: Require management plans that evaluate efficiency measures as an
alternative to developing new supplies.
Strategy: Conserve irrigation water by leveling fields, upgrading sprinklers,
recycling used irrigation water, installing drip or trickle irrigation systems,
irrigating according to need, and educating about the appropriate quantities
and precise scheduling requirements of different crops.
Strategy: Abate water leakages by, for example, lining canals.
Strategy: Conserve industrial water by recycling cooling water, using water
efficient technologies, recycling rather than manufacturing materials, and
applying strict pollution control requirements for wastewater.
Strategy: Conserve domestic water by encouraging use of water efficient
appliances and requiring their use for new construction, and by instituting
regular leak detection programs for distribution systems and in homes,
factories, and offices.
Strategy: Use brackish water, treated wastewater or stormwater for irrigation,
industrial cooling water or other demands that do not require potable water.
Strategy: Support research on water efficient technologies.
Strategy: Expand research on cost-effective, low-energy methods of desalting
water.
Strategy: Use rainwater collection systems in urban areas, where appropriate.
Goal: Consider environmental consequences of water projects. Large water projects
have harmful social, health, and environmental impacts, and this is often ignored
in evaluating the cost-benefit of the project. Excessive water withdrawals from the
world's rivers threaten the fish and other wildlife dependent on a minimum flow,
and effect the lakes, estuaries and inland seas that rely on inputs of freshwater. Dams
and reservoirs in developing countries have displaced hundreds of thousands of
people and spread serious diseases like malaria and schistosomiasis.
Strategy: Discourage large environmentally damaging water projects.
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Strategy: Encourage development of agroforestry and erosion control
measures, and improve efficiency of water use as alternatives to large water
projects.
Strategy: Protect instream requirements, including the fish and wildlife that
depend on the stream, by setting minimum streamflow requirements.
Strategy: Provide tax and land use incentives and controls to retain
streamside vegetation and wetlands that help regulate stream flows.
Strategy: Practice riverbasin or watershed management and upland
reforestation.
Strategy: Coordinate management of land and water resources. For example,
discourage growth and development in water short areas.
Goal: Prevent groundwater mining. In much of the world, groundwater
withdrawals exceed the rate of replenishment, threatening future water supplies and
leading to subsidence and saltwater intrusion.
Strategy: Limit water withdrawals to "safe yield" -- water is only taken out at
the same rate that it is recharged to maintain water equilibrium.
Strategy: Use fees or financial incentives to discourage groundwater
withdrawals and encourage conservation.
Strategy: Limit development above overburdened aquifers and protect key
aquifer recharge areas.
Strategy: Recharge aquifers with fresh water where cost-effective and
practical. Help restore aquifers through reforestation and improved land use
management.
Goal: Protect groundwater quality. Groundwater programs should coordinate the
related issues of allocation and quality. Excessive groundwater pumping can spread a
contamination plume through an aquifer or draw in low-quality water from, for
instance, a coastal or salt-water aquifer.
Strategy: Map aquifer systems and their associated recharge and discharge
areas.
Strategy: Classify aquifers to identify critical drinking water supplies and
other particularly sensitive aquifers for priority protection.
Strategy: Adopt a policy of non-degradation.
Strategy: Minimize excessive groundwater withdrawals in coastal areas to
prevent saltwater intrusion.
Strategy: Establish ambient water quality standards. Use these standards to
trigger controls on sources of contamination and to gauge the effectiveness of
limits on discharges that cannot be measured, such as those from nonpoint
pollution sources.
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Strategy: Control sources of contamination through comprehensive source
reduction and waste minimization techniques, discharge controls,or surface-
use restrictions (e.g. zoning, controls over facility siting, and public aquisition
of land to protect aquifer recharge areas). Implement "best management"
controls on nonpoint sources.
Strategy: Establish groundwater monitoring programs to assure that
standards are met.
Strategy: Establish compliance and enforcement mechanisms and take action
against violators. Allow citizens suits and citizen rewards for providing
evidence against polluters.
Strategy: Coordinate all environmental and natural resource programs that
affect groundwater resources, especially those that control the allocation and
use of groundwater and those that integrate surface water and groundwater
management.
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Preservation of Biological Diversity
75
PRESERVATION OF BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY
Whereas:
The diversity of life on our planet is part of the common inheritance not only
of nations but also of humankind, and is a trust for each generation to hold
safe for the next;
The impact of human intervention has accelerated far beyond natural levels
the loss of species of all life forms;
The weakening and ultimate disappearance of certain animal and plant species
damages land and water based food chains in ways that increase the cost and
reduce the availability of food for hundreds of millions or people;
The destruction of untold other species, which are perishing wholesale because
of the loss of their habitats, cuts off forever scientific discoveries of potentially
great benefit in medicine and plant genetics for agriculture;
The processes by which humankind destroys the habitats of other species are
inseparable from the processes by which humankind is destroying its own
habitat;
The uncontrolled extinction of other species is a clear signal of dangers already
menacing human life;
Humankind cannot survive unless it develops a relationship to the natural
environment sustainable over generations;
We cannot hope to successfully defend our own habitat if we do not also act to
defend other species and preserve their habitats; and
National laws to protect species and their habitats must often contend with
economic forces that are international in scope, including the consumption
demands of other nations and the behavior of international institutions
including major lenders and multinational corporations;
NOW, therefore, be it resolved that:
In order to curtail the loss of species worldwide, nations should commit
themselves to the negotiation of a Convention on the Preservation of
Biological Diversity, with the objective of opening the Convention for
signature by 1992;
In order to preserve the world's most concentrated areas of species diversity, the
nations of the world should commit themselves to the shared responsibility
of ensuring no further loss of primary forest by the year 2000;
Laws and regulations are needed not only to prevent the extermination of
specific species, but also to assure the preservation of habitats, and to
subordinate human interaction with these habitats to that purpose;
National law should require accountability by all institutions whose actions
affect the survival of species and of habitats, including the effect of legislation
itself upon the environment;
Major international lending institutions and trans-national corporations,
including private banks, should be required by law and by international
agreement where needed, to publicly submit to procedures which honestly
and publicly estimate the impact that the ongoing projected activities of these
institutions will likely have upon the survival of species and of habitats;
Nations must strive to mitigate economic and cultural activities which
threaten the survival of species and ecosystems by extending legal and
fundamental principles of protection to all life forms and natural
communities and by finding methods of mediating and adjudicating conflicts
between economic, cultural and protection goals;
Natural area inventories should be undertaken to locate and determine the
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status of the earth's various life forms and their habitats and natural
communities; the knowledge of which must establish protection goals and
guide the development policies and decisions of nations and investors;
Because wetlands are critical and especially threatened ecosystems, all nations
should develop immediately policies designed to comply with the Ramsaar
Convention.
As global climate change occurs affecting and possibly disrupting food
production cycles, there is a special need for national and international legal
instruments to protect the habitats of critical plant species, essential to devise
new strains of crops able to survive in stressed environments;
Knowledge generated by these activities should belong to the scientific
community at large, to the maximum extent possible. However, commercial
benefits derived from such knowledge must be shared equitably by those who
discover and market new products, with the nation from whose natural
endowment the original samples and genetic information came.
All nations should ban commerce in endangered species and their products;
and
Biotechnologies and genetic manipulation of plants and animals in agriculture
and husbandry should be restricted and even forbidden insofar and when
genetic erosion, genetic uniformity or instability of the ecosystem and loss of
biodiversity are implied or involved.
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PRESERVATION OF BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY
Legislative Strategies
National Actions
Goal: Develop a full inventory of national biological resources through monitoring,
research programs and data management. If we are to develop effective policies to
prevent loss of biological diversity, we need to know more about existing ecosystems
and use that information for protection and management decisions.
Strategy: Accelerate inventories of biological, species, subspecies,
communities and ecosystems.
Strategy: Intensify and expand monitoring of key populations, subspecies,
species, communities, ecosystems and biological processes, particularly those
threatened with extinction or likely to be declining, to assess biological
diversity and impacts from development activities.
Strategy: Develop, promote and and fund additional research relating to
biological diversity, particularly with regard to species that are likely to be
declining.
Strategy: Establish conservation data centers to collect and distribute
information on the location and status of all elements of biological diversity.
Goal: Promote protection and management of lands and waters that serve as critical
habitat for maintaining biological diversity. A coherent and consistent approach
must be taken with respect to protection and management of lands and waters at the
national and local levels, with the explicit goal of preserving biological diversity.
Strategy: Coordinate management of national lands at national, regional and
local levels so as to preserve biological diversity.
Strategy: Provide incentives, and eliminate disincentives, to local
community protection of natural resources in protected areas.
Strategy: Orient national land and water protection decisions toward
establishing a system of protected reserves and sanctuaries that preserve
biological diversity.
Strategy: Establish protected areas of sufficient size and appropriate design to
maintain ecological processes.
Strategy: Place greater investment in restoration/rehabilitation of degraded
critical ecosystems, e.g. wetlands, estuaries, lakes, rivers, tropical forests, coral
reefs, coastal bottom communities, climate zones, and oceanic islands.
Preserve entire, intact ecosystems, ecological corridors, altitude gradients, etc.
Goal: Promote development of planning processes that include protection of
biological resources. Improved national and local planning is needed to ensure that
development occurs in a manner compatible with the maintenance of biological
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diversity.
Strategy: Develop land and water resource management plans that promote
sustainable use of living resources.
Strategy: Develop integrated coastal zone management plans to guide coastal
development in a manner that is consistent with the protection of critical
ecosystems and their inherent biological diversity.
Strategy: Encourage integrated planning and coordination among industrial,
transportation, agriculture, forestry, fifisheries, parks and education sectors.
Strategy: Promote integrated planning in areas of special value to biological
diversity as indentified by inventories and monitoring.
Strategy: Limit and control the impact of all national defense activities that
threaten biological diversity.
Goal: Establish captive propagation and reintroduction programs. Protection, storage,
propagation and reintroduction of genetic material is a valuable supplement in
preventing loss of biological diversity and to restoring the natural structure and
function of biological communities and ecosystems. This approach should not be
considered a cure, but only a crutch where needed.
Strategy: Increase research on storage, propagation and reintroduction of
species.
Strategy: Support and establish zoos, botanical gardens, seed and gene banks
to preserve and propagate organisms, especially for endangered species.
Strategy: Encourage reintroduction of organisms into former native habitats.
Goal: Develop more effective regulatory approaches aimed at protection of biological
diversity. National regulations should be developed and enforced to prevent the loss
of biological diversity through destruction of ecosystems, communities and
individual organisms.
Strategy: Enact explicit requirements to consider impact on biological
diversity as part of the environmental assessment of national regulatory and
economic development decisions.
Strategy: Enforce regulations of the use and consumption of biological
resources.
Strategy: Enact and enforce laws to protect endangered species.
Strategy: regulatory programs in areas having special value to
biological diversity as identifiedfied by inventories and monitoring.
Strategy: Regulate the use of advanced biotechnology, such as gene
technology.
Strategy: Each nation must take ultimate responsibility for the preservation
of species endemic to that nation.
79
International Actions
Goal: Raise priority of biological diversity in economic assistance programs and
institutions, and promote supportive policies. Ensure that decisions by economic
assistant programs and institutions are consistent with the maintenance of biological
diversity.
Strategy: Environmental guidelines and criteria on grants of foreign
economic assistance should be developed to prevent loss of biological
diversity.
Strategy: Encourage coordination among donors of bilateral and multilateral
economic assistance to adopt consistent environmental assessment
requirements that include impact on biological resources and habitat.
Strategy: Modify development programs to assist local efforts to protect
forests, wetlands, waters, and other critical ecosystems.
Strategy: Increase pressure on national overseas development agencies and
multilateral development banks to develop more effective environmental
guidelines and to fifinance ecologically sound projects, and, conversely, to end
those projects which directly or indirectly promote deforestation or damage
critical areas of high biological richness as well as displace indigenous peoples.
Strategy: Provide effective technical assistance and other bilateral assistance
to research and other programs assisting forestry and drylands activities, as
well as wetlands, and activities in other critical ecosystems in developing
countries.
Goal: Pursue international cooperative activities to ensure protection of biological
diversity. Improved international cooperation is essential to maintain biological
diversity because organisms, communities and ecosystems are not organized
according to political boundaries.
Strategy: Use Debt-for-Nature swaps to provide financial resources for
management of protection areas.
Strategy: Develop a genetic treasure map of the world based on Vavilov's
"Centers of Biodiversity."
Strategy: Establish a protection plan for Centers of Biodiversity.
Strategy: Respect the unique knowledge of ecosystems and species which
indigenous peoples have.
Strategy: Preservation activities should respect the habitats, customs and
cultures of indigenous peoples.
Goal: Nations and companies which benefit from the utilization of biological
resources in other countries should participate appropriately in the preservation of
the affected communities from which the resources are taken.
80
Goal: Those nations whose biological resources are utilized by other countries should
share equitably in the earnings derived from their development.
Goal: Establish an international cooperative program in the U.N. system or
independently to identify and preserve genetic material that is needed to reinforce
and restore productivity of commercial food crops.
Strategy: Encourage establishment of conservation trust funds, through
allocation of national funds and contributions from international
conservation organizations and other nations, to support projects to conserve
biological diversity.
Strategy: Support and endorse both an international convention for the
conservation of biological diversity and for the establishment of a fund for
that purpose.
Strategy: Participate in Regional Seas programs, as coordinated by UNEP.
Strategy: Establish international marine reserves in critical ecosystems that
encompass international waters.
Strategy: Provide economic incentives for those countries which act boldly in
matters of biodiversity protection.
Strategy: Sponsor the transfer of technology devoted to increase the
production and protection of the species, including the results of genetic
engineering research, referring to food.
Strategy: Support international agreements to control air and water pollution
and toxic chemicals that threaten critical species.
Strategy: Develop river basin compact on river management, water use, etc.
Goal: Encourage all nations to protect endangered ecosystems and species.
Strategy: Ban commerce on importation and exportation of endangered species and
their products. Support Convention on Trade in Endangered Species and World
Flora and Fauna (CITES).
Goal: Raise priority of international cooperation concerning possible adverse
consequences of advanced biotechnology.
Strategy: Increase international research and development programs.
Strategy: Provide an international discussion concerning environmental
ethics within biotechnology.
Goal: Establish a world system of nature preserves.
Strategy: Encourage the establishment of multinational nature preserves.
Strategy: Coordinate planning for preserves among neighboring countries.
Strategy: Coordinate preserves for critical habitats of species that migrate
among nations.
81
Delegates to the ICGE
Australia
Alasdair Webster
Brian Harradine
Austria
Ilona Graenitz
Werner Fasslabend
Brazil
Nelson Carneiro
Antonio Luiz Maya
Jarbas Passarinho
Amaury Muller
Aloisio Vasconcelos
Cristina Tavares Correia
Maurilio Ferreira Lima
Fabio Feldmann
Cameroon
Francois Kwengoua
Samuel Tamfu
Canada
Lee Clark
Mira Spivak
Jim Fulton
Marlene Catterall
Czechoslovakia
Juraj Mesik
Zdenek Krivsky
Pavel Sremer
82
Denmark
Niels Ahlmann-Ohlsen
Hanna Severinsen
Helen Beim
Margrete Auken
Egypt
Soufy Abotalib
Salah El Hamady
European Parliament
Hemmo Muntingh
Finland
Jussi Ranta
Pekka Puska
Martti Tiuri
France
Laurent Fabius
Jean-Marie Bockel
Jean-Yves Le Deaut
Roland Nungesser
Hubert Martin
Louis Perrein
Bernard-Charles Hugo
Germany
Hermann Scheer
Klaus Kuebler
Monika Ganseforth
Guatemala
Marco Antonio Dardon
Jorge Cordon
Arturo Amiel
Claudio Riedel
Gilberto Morales
Gilberto Barillas
Victor Hugo Miranda
83
Indonesia
H. Jailani Naro
Theo L. Sambuaga
R. Ng Bambang Soepangat
Yan Mokoginta
M. Yanis Zahiruddin
Susilastuti Sutopo Isnomo
Edy Wibowo
Kemas Badaruddin
Italy
Antonio Rastrelli
Roland Riz
Lorenzo Strik Lievers
Giorgio Tornati
Franca Falcucci
Massimo Serafini
Milvia Boselli
Franco Sapio
Francesco Rutelli
Japan
Tamako Nakanishi
Wakako Hironaka
Masahisa Aoki
Kazuo Aichi
Takeshi Kosugi
Kenya
Joseph Muliro
Philip Leakey
Kausai Francis Xavier ole Kaparo
Bonaya Adhi Godana
James Miruka Owuor
Silvester Mate
Joseph Mwenda Malebe
Madagascar
Lucien Xavier Michel Adrianarahinjaka
Anaclet Imbiky
Maldives
Ahmed Zahir
Mohamed Shihab
Mohamed Ismail Fulu
Malta
Stanley Zammit
84
Francis Zammit Dimech
Daniel Micallef
Dom Mintoff
John Dalli
Mexico
Laura Alicia Garza
Hector Mayagoitia
Bulmaro Pacheco
Cristobal Arias
Arely Madrid
Carmen Moreno
Gerardo Medina
Vicente Luis Coca
Netherlands
Roelof Kruisinga
Egbert Schuurman
Arthie Schimmel
New Zealand
Richard Northey
W. Rob Storey
Niger
Moutari Moussa
Kada Labdo Abou-Bacar
Ibrahim Labo
Mai Manga Yacouba
Maidoka Abou-Bacar
Norway
Kirsti Kolle Groendahl
Haakon Blankenborg
Sverre Mauritzen
Knut Hanselmann
Per Aunet
Svein Alsaker
Ragnhild Queseth Haarstad
Pakistan
Attiya Inayatullah
85
Philippines
Heherson T. Alvarez
John H. Osmena
Edgardo Angara
Ernesto M. Maceda
Felicito C. Payumo
Poland
August Chelkowski
Andrzej Konopacki
Stefan Kozlowski
Jerzy Rusecki
Franciszek Sobieski
Jam Sroczynski
Janusz Steinhoff
Spain
Bernardo Bayona Aznar
Alfonso Arenas Ferriz
Clemente Sanz Blanco
Vicent Beguer Oliveres
Francisco Quetglas Rosanes
Juan Jose Aspuru Ruiz
Rafael Garcia Contreras
Carlos Davila Sanchez
Lluis Recoder Miralles
Rafael Martinez Campillo
Eduardo Vallejo de Olejua
Ernesto Caballero Castillo
Jon Larrinaga Apraiz
Maria Teresa Estevan Bolea
Sweden
Margareta Winberg
Lennart Nilsson
Ivar Virgin
Lars Ernestam
Karin Starrin
Annika Ahnberg
Roy Ottosson
UK
Hugh Rossi
Eric Illsley
Mr. Flowers
Mr. Carver
USSR
Kakimbek Salykov
86
Aleksei Yablokov
Georgii Komarov
Lev Kuznetsov
Yurii Shcherbak
Venezuela
Bernardo Orande
Jose Guadalupe Jordon
Alejandro Sanchez
Pedro Escarras
Carlos Aspurua
Zaire
Ma Kong Maneng
Mpagazehe Kanyankogote
Madragule Angoyo Mandango
A Tezo Lubaki Mpasi
87
World Meteorologica: Organization
United Nations
Organisation meteoroiogique mondiale
Environment Programme
Case oostale N° 2300
Programme des Nations Unies
1211- GENEVA 2
pour l'Environnement
SWITZERLAND
PO Box 30552 Nairoc Kenya
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
IPCC WORKING GROUP II (IMPACTS)
Draft Report and draft Policy-Makers' Summary
UNEP
WMO
Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change
Policymakers' Summary
of the
Potential impacts of climate change
Report to IPCC from Working Group II
First draft, April 1990
Prepared by an editorial drafting group of:
Professor Y-U. Izrael, USSR (Chairman, WGII)
Dr M. Hashimoto, Japan (Co-Vice-Chairman WGII)
Dr W.J.McG. Tegart, Australia (Co-Vice-Chairman, WGII)
Dr A. Hecht. USA
Dr A. Sinha, India
Contents
Executive summary
1
Agriculture and forestry
1
Natural terrestrial ecosystems
1
Hydrology and water resources
1
Human settlements, energy, transport. and industrial sectors. human health and air
quality
1
Oceans and coastal zones
2
Terrestria: cryosphere
2
Overview
3
Summary
5
Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture, land use and forestry
5
Potential impacts on agriculture
5
Major findings
5
Principal issues
5
Magnitudes of possible dislocation
5
The most vuinerable regions and sectors
5
The effect of altered climate extremes
5
Effects on crop growth potential. land degradation, pests and
diseases
6
Regional impacts
6
Rates of adaptability
7
Recommendations for action
7
Potential impacts on forestry
8
Biophysical effects
8
Socioeconomic implications
8
Adaptation
8
Recommendations for action
9
Potential impacts of climate change on natural terrestrial ecosystems and the SOCIO-
economic consequences
9
Maior findings
9
Principal issues
10
Particularly sensitive species
10
Changes in the boundaries of vegetation zones
10
Changes within ecosvstems
11
Recommendations for action
12
Potential impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources
12
Major findings
12
Principal issues
13
Regional impacts
13
Recommendations for actions
14
ii
Potential impacts of climate change on human settlement, the energy, transport and
industrial sectors. human health and air quality, and likely impacts of changes
in UV-B radiation
15
Major findings
15
Principal issues
15
Human settlement
16
Energy
16
Transport
17
Industry
17
Human health
18
Air pollution
18
UV-B radiation
18
Recommendations for action
19
Potential impacts of climate change on the world ocean and coastal zones
19
Major findings
19
Impacts of sea-level rise (impacts on coastal zone)
19
Threatened populations in low-lying areas and island nations
20
Alteration of the biophysical properties of estuaries and wetlands
20
inundation and recession of barrier islands, coral atolls and other
shorelines
21
Impacts on the world ocean
21
Recommendations for action
22
Impacts of climate change on the terrestrial cryosphere and socioeconomic
consequences
23
Major findings
23
Principal issues
23
Seasonai snow cover
24
Ice sheets and glaciers
24
Permatrost
25
Recommendations for action
26
Outstanding issues and future actions
27
Concluding remarks
28
iii
1
Executive summary
2
3
A number of scenarios has been used by the
patterns have significant socioeconomic
4
Working Group to asses the potential impacts of
consequences for both humans and animais.
5
climate change. These have the features of:
6
Natural terrestrial ecosystems
7
(i) doubling of CO₂ in the atmosphere between
8
now and 2025 to 2050 for a business as
The rate of projected climate changes is the
9
usuai scenario:
major factor determining the type and degree of
10
impacts on natural terrestrial ecosystems.
11
(ii) a consequent increase of global temperature
These rates are likely to be faster than
12
in the range 1.5°C to 4.5°C:
ecosystems can respond. Major vegetation
13
zones could, therefore. face severe disturbances
14
(iii) an unequal global distribution of this
and disruptions. influencing plant and
15
increase. namely a smailer increase of half the
associated animal populations. Species could
16
global mean in the tropical regions and a larger
disappear, leading to supstantial reductions in
17
increase of twice the global mean in the polar
biological
diversity.
The
socioeconomic
18
regions: and
consequences of these impacts will be
19
significant, especially for those regions of the
20
(iv) a sea-level rise of about 0.3-0.5 m by 2050
globe where societies and related economies
21
and up to 1 m by 2100.
are dependent on natural terrestrial ecosystems
22
for their welfare.
23
Against these scenarios, the major conclusions
24
of the Working Group are:
25
Hydrology and water resources
26
Agriculture and forestry
While many areas will have increased
27
precipitation. and thus WHI change patterns of
28
On balance. our assessment indicates that food
agricuiture and ecosystems: soil moisture will
29
production at the giobal levei can be sustained
decrease in other areas. carticularly those that
30
at levels sufficient to meet wond demand, but
are aiready in marginal stuations such as
31
the cost of achieving this is unclear. There may
Africa. A 1°C to 2°C temperature increase.
32
be severe negative effects at the regional level,
coupied with a 10% reduction in precipitation.
33
particularly in areas of present-day high
could produce a 40-70% reduction in annual
34
vulnerability. such as some semi-arid and
runoff. This has significant implications for
35
subtropical regions in Africa and South America.
agricuiture, for water storage and reticulation.
36
and some numia tropical and equatorial regions
and for hydroelectric power generation. Future
37
in Southeast Asia and Central America.
water resource engineering design will need to
38
Patterns of trade could be aitered by decreased
take possible impacts nto account when
39
production in some of the currently high
considering structures with a life to the ena of
40
production areas for cereais such as southern
41
the next century.
Europe. southern USA, parts of South America
42
and Western Australia. On the other hand.
43
cereai production could increase in Northern
Human settlements, energy,
44
Europe. Policy responses directed to breeding
transport, and industrial
45
of new plant species designed to cope with
sectors, human health and air
46
changed climate conditions could lessen the
47
seventy of regional impacts.
quality
48
49
In the case of forestry, major forest-type zones
The impact of climate change will be largest on
50
and species ranges could shift significantly as a
human settlement in vuinerable areas near
51
result of climate change, with both northern and
coasts. such as in Bangiadesh, and on small
52
southern boundaries of temperature and
islands, such as in the Pacific and the
53
northern forests shifting several hundred
Caribbean. Inundation due to sea-level rise and
54
kilometres northward. Particularly sensitive are
increased frequency of storm surges could lead
55
boreal forests where stands are mainly even-
to significant movements of people. Major
56
aged and temperature limited. and forests in
impacts are possible on large urban areas due
57
arid and semi-arid regions. Changes in forest
to availability of water and increased health
1
problems due to neat stress and susceptibility
species with consequent socioeconomic
2
to infections. Changes in precipitation and
impacts.
3
temperature could radically alter the patterns of
4
vector-borne diseases by shifting them to higher
Terrestrial cryosphere
5
latitudes and thus put large populations at risk.
6
The real extent of snow, near-surface layers of
7
The impact on energy, transport and industrial
permafrost and some masses of ice will be
8
sectors will largery be determined by policy
substantially reduced. This reduction may have
9
responses to climate change, rather than by
significant impacts for reiated ecosystems.
10
climate change itseif. Changes in patterns of
particularly where permafrost degrades.
11
energy generation and usage would impact on
Impacts on human settlements in permafrost
12
lifestytes and living catterns. especially in the
and glacial areas may also be significant and
13
developed countries. while developing countries
include possible increases in terrain instability,
14
with little or no indigenous energy resources will
erosion and landslides. Water supply for
15
need to consider their options. particularly for
irrigation, hydroelectric generation and human
16
renewable energy sources such as biomass.
consumption will be affected in areas
17
Global warming can be expected to affect the
dependent on snow and glaciai meit for their
18
availability of water resources and biomass,
water resources.
19
both major energy sources in a large number of
20
developing countries. Such changes in areas
21
which lose water may jeopardise energy supply
22
and materiais essential for human nabitation
23
and energy.
24
25
The impact on air quality will be largely related
26
to the policy responses on fossii-fuel
27
combustion and on transport. Improved
28
combustion technology, coupied with
29
conservation of energy, couid lead to a
30
reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases
31
and also other deleterious gases such as
32
suiphur dioxide.
33
34
Oceans and coastal zones
35
36
While there has been a steady global sea-level
37
rise of about 12 cm over the past century, the
38
impact of a rise of 30-50 cm in the next 50
39
years. ie a three-fourfold increase in rate. will be
40
significant in terms of cost of protecting and
41
defending coastlines. It is important to
42
recognise that the rate of sea-level rise with
43
increase in air temperature is exponential so
44
that. if no control measures on emissions are
45
instituted. the sea-level rise could be 1 E by the
46
year 2100. The impacts will be correspondingly
47
more severe and adaptation costs far nigher.
48
49
Coastal zones such as mangroves and wetlands
50
could be markedly affected with significant
51
impacts on terrestrial and ocean ecosystems.
52
While there may be regional impacts on fish
53
stocks. particularly in high-latitude regions in
54
both the northern and southern hemispheres,
55
the assessment suggests that world fish
56
supplies will not be significantly affected,
57
although there could be significant migrations of
1
Overview
2
3
The IPCC Working Groups on scientific analysis
is particularly the case for rainfall where there is
4
(Working Group I), impacts (Working Group II)
considerable disagreement between various
5
and response strategies (Working Group III)
model results.
6
were established in November 1988 and
7
proceeded to work in parailel under instructions
As a general guide, the scenarios that have
8
from IPCC. The responsibility of Working Group
been used for temperature. based on a
9
II is to describe the environmental and
doubling of CO₂. have the features of:
10
socioeconomic implications of possible climate
11
changes over the next decades due to
(i) an increase of global temperature in the
12
increasing concentrations of greennouse gases.
range 1.5°C to 4.5°C;
13
14
In an ideal world, Working Group I would have
(ii) an unequal global distribution of this
15
had the time to produce scenarios which could
increase. namely half the giobal mean in the
16
have been used as a basis for the analyses of
tropical regions and twice the global mean in
17
this Working Group. However. work proceeding
the polar regions; and
18
in parailel precluded this possibility. As a result.
19
and in order to complete its work in time,
(iii) CO₂ doubling would occur between now
20
Working Group II was forcea to use a number
and 2025 to 2050 for a business as usual
21
of scenarios based on existing models in the
scenario.
22
literature. It has attempted to eliminate
23
inconsistencies where possible.
The paleoclimate analogs suggest a relationship
24
of an increase of temperature for doubling of
25
An issue of importance which has not been
CO₂ in the range of 2°-4°C consistent with the
26
considered in any detail is the impact of
predictions of climate models.
27
possible response strategies (developed by
28
Working Group III) on the scenanos used here.
The timing for doubling of CO₂ is critical to an
29
Thus. a major change in energy production
assessment of potential impacts. but depends
30
from fossil fuel to nuclear or renewable energy
on projections for energy production and usage
31
sources couid drastically alter our assessments.
which. in turn. are dependent on projections for
32
Further. changes in agricultural practice could
population growth and per capita income.
33
dramatically alter yields of particular crops in
Initially, it was believed that doubling would
34
certain regions. These impacts of response
occur by 2050 on a scenario of continued
35
strategies require much additional work.
energy usage at the current rate. but Working
36
Group III has revised this downwards to 2030.
37
A particular issue is the use of scenarios
As noted above. the impact of possible
38
derivea from global general circulation models
response strategies is significant in determining
39
and from paleo-anaiog techniques. Paleo-
the rate of increase of CO2
40
climate analogs are proposed by Soviet
41
scientists as a means by which climate changes
Another issue has been the assessment of the
42
can be assessed. The methodology assumes
impact of increased sea-level. It should be
43
that past warm geologic intervais provide insight
emphasised that our ability to estimate future
44
into possible future climate conditions. The
climate change is constantly improving as new
45
general circulation models are based on
information and analyses become available.
46
mathematical representations of the physical
The original estimates of sea-ievel rise were up
47
processes in the atmosphere and the inter-
to 1 m by 2050 for a doubling of CO₂ and some
48
actions of the atmosphere with the earth's
of the subgroups have used this as their basis
49
surface and the oceans. There is considerable
for assessment. However. Working Group I
50
scientific debate about the merits and demerits
now considers that the rise will be about 20 cm
51
of each of these as discussed in the report of
by 2030 and this leads to smaller impacts and
52
Working Group I. We have used both
less urgent policy responses. It should be
53
techniques in attempting to construct scenarios
noted that the scenarios based on 1 m rise
54
for the assessment of impacts in different areas.
could be reached by 2100 if emissions continue
55
A major difficulty has been the development of
at the present rate of growth and thus these
56
regional scenarios to evaluate assessments of
potential impacts serve as a warning of the
57
regional impacts to assist policy makers. This
3
1
consequences of continued uncontroiled
2
emissions.
3
4
The smaller rise does not lessen the anxiety for
5
their continued existence of the smail island
6
states. particularly of the Pacific Ocean and the
7
Caribbean, or of the larger populations in low-
8
lying coastal areas such as Bangiadesh. It is
9
difficuit to predict the regional effects of sea-
10
level rise with any certainty. Significant
11
variations of sea-ievel already occur for a variety
12
of reasons. while there are considerable shifts in
13
land levels associated with tectonic plate
14
movements which can also lead to rises and
15
falls.
16
17
Despite all these uncertainties. it is possible to
18
make assessments of potential impacts of
19
climate change by considering the sensitivity of
20
natural systems to significant variations. These
21
are summansed in the following sections under:
22
agriculture and forestry; terrestrial ecosystems;
23
hydrology and water resources; human settle-
24
ment. energy, transport, industry, human health
25
and air quality: likely impacts of changes in
26
ultraviolet-B radiation: world ocean and coastal
27
zones: terrestnai cryosphere.
28
4
1
Summary
2
3
Potential impacts of climate
Much depends on the how benefits of the SO-
4
change on agriculture, land use
called 'direct' effects of increased CO₂ on crop
yield. If plant productivity is substantially
5
and forestry
enhanced and more moisture is available in
6
some major production areas. then world pro-
7
Potential impacts on agriculture
duction of staple cereais could increase relative
8
to demand with food prices reduced as a result.
9
Major findings
If, on the contrary, there is little beneficial direct
CO₂ effect and climate changes are negative for
10
agricultural potential in all or most of the major
11
Sufficient evidence is now available from a
food-exporting areas. then the average costs of
12
variety of different studies. to indicate that
world agricultural production could increase
13
changes of climate would have an important
significantly. These increased costs could
14
effect on agricuiture. Yet the fact that there
amount to over 10% of wond agricultural GDF.
15
are major uncertainties regarding likely
16
effects in specific regions should be a cause
17
for concern. Studies have not yet
The most vulnerable regions and
18
conclusively determined whether, on
sectors
19
average, global agricultural potential will
20
increase or decrease.
On the basis both of limited resource capacity
21
in relation to present-day population and of
22
On balance. the evidence is that food
possible future diminution of the agricultural
23
production at the global level can. in the
resource base as a consequence of reduced
24
face of estimated changes of climate, be
crop-water availability, two broad sets of regions
25
sustained at levels sufficient to meet world
appear most vulnerable to climate change: (i)
26
demand. but the cost of achieving this is
some semi-arid, tropical and subtropical regions
27
unclear.
(viz western Arabia. the Magnreo. western West
28
Africa. Horn of Africa and Southern Africa.
29
However. there may well be severe negative
eastern Brazil), and (ii) some numid tropical
30
effects at the regional level. particularly in
and equatorial regions (viz Southeast Asia.
31
regions of high present-day vuinerability that
Central America).
32
are least able to adjust technically to such
33
effects.
In addition, certain regions that are currently net
34
exporters of cereals could also be characterised
35
Increases in productive potential at high mid
by reduced productive potential as a result or
36
and high latitudes. while being of regional
climate changes. Any decrease in production in
37
importance. are not likely to open up large
these regions could markedly affect future
38
new areas for production.
global food prices and patterns of trade.
39
These regions include: southern Europe.
40
Principal issues
southern US, parts of South America, Western
Australia.
41
42
Magnitudes of possible dislocation
The effect of altered climate
43
44
Under the estimate of changes in productive
extremes
45
potential for the changes of climate outlined in
46
this report. the cost of producing some mid-
Relative small changes in the mean values of
47
latitude crops such as maize and soybean,
rainfall and temperature can have a marked
48
could increase. reflecting a small net decrease
effect on the frequency of extreme levels of
49
in the giobal food production capability of these
available warmth and moisture. For example,
50
crops. Rice production could, however,
the number of very hot days which can cause
51
increase if available moisture increased in
damaging heat stress to temperate crops could
52
southeast Asia. The average global increase in
increase significantly in some regions as a result
53
overall production costs could thus be small
of a 1°C to 2°C increase in mean annual
54
(perhaps a few per cent of world GDP).
temperatures. Similarly, reduction in average
55
levels of soil moisture as a result of higher rates
5
1
of evapotranspiration could increase sub-
at present limited to tropical countries, to
2
stantially the number of days with a minimum
current subtropical and temperate regions.
3
threshoid of water availability for given crops.
4
Regional impacts
5
Although we know little, at present, about how
6
the frequency of extreme events may alter as a
Impacts on potential yields are likely to vary
7
result of climate change, the potential impact of
greatly according to types of climate change
8
concurrent drought or heat stress in the major
and types of agriculture.
9
food-exporting regions of the world could be
10
severe. In addition, relatively small decreases in
Considering the most important aspects of
11
rainfall or increases in evapotranspiration could
global warming that are critical to agriculture:
12
markedly increase both the risk and the
increased atmospheric CO₂ concentration.
13
intensity of drought in currently drought-prone
increased temperature, increased global
14
(and often food-deficient) regions. Change in
precipitation and a lengthening growing season
15
drought risk represents potentially the most
in temperate regions, it is likely that productivity
16
serious impact of climate change on agriculture
of world agriculture will increase. provided
17
at both the regional and global level.
technological and economic factors do not limit
18
yields. The exceptions to the above may occur
19
Effects on crop growth potential,
in some regions, yet it will not change the
20
land degradation, pests and
general trend.
21
diseases
22
At the first stage of global warming (200-2005)
23
Higher leveis of atmospheric CO₂ are expected
some deterioration of agrometeorological
24
to enhance the growth rate of some stapie
conditions in a number of major regions may
25
cereal crops. such as wheat and rice. but not of
occur, in particular in the temperate zones of
26
others such as millet. sorghum and maize. The
the Northern Hemisphere. However. manage-
27
use of water by crop plants may also be more
ment and technological adjustments can
28
efficient under higher CO₂ levels. However. it is
prevent serious disruption of world food
29
not clear how far the potentially beneficial
production.
30
'direct' effects of enhanced atmospheric CO₂
31
will be manifested in the farmer's field rather
On the basis of global circulation models (GCM)
32
than in the experimental glasshouse.
scenarios in the northern mid-latitude regions,
33
where summer drying may reduce productive
34
Warming is likely to result in a poleward shift of
potential (eg in the south and central US and
35
thermal limits of agriculture, which may increase
southern Europe) yield potential is estimated to
36
productive potential in high-latitude regions.
fall by ca 10-30% under an equilibrium 2xCO₂
37
But soils and terrain may not enable much of
climate. Towards the northern edge of current
38
this potential to be realised. Moreover. shifts of
main producing regions, however. warming may
39
moisture limits in some semi-arid and sub-
enhance productive potential in climatic terms.
40
humid regions could lead to significant
When combined with direct CO2 effects,
41
reductions of potential with serious implications
increased climatic potential could be substantial
42
for regional food supplies in some developing
- though in actuality this may be limited by soils
43
countries.
and terrain.
44
45
There are indications that precipitation in a
In the northern mid-latitude regions where
46
warmer wond would be received in more
summer drying may reduce productive potential
47
intense storms at the expense of more wide-
(eg in the south and central US and in southern
48
spread and less intense showers. This would
Europe) yield potential is estimated to fall by
49
tend to encourage higher rates of soil erosion
10-30% under an equilibrium 2 X CO₂ climate.
50
especially if higher rates of evaporation lead to
Towards the northern edge of current core
51
greater differences in soil moisture between dry
producing regions, however, warming may
52
and wet periods of the year.
enhance productive potential in climatic terms.
53
When combined with direct CO2 effects,
54
Temperature increases may extend the geo-
increased climatic potential could be substantial
55
graphic range of some insect pests and
. though in actuality it may be limited by soils
56
diseases, allowing the expansion of these pests,
and terrain.
57
6
1
There are indications that warming could lead to
availability could decrease in some regions.
2
an overall reduction of cereal production
Under these circumstances there could be
3
potential in North America and to reduced
substantial regional dislocation of access to
4
potential in southern Europe. but increased
food supply.
5
potential in northern Europe. Warming could
6
allow increased agricultural output in regions
Rates of adaptability
7
near the northern limit of current production in
8
the USSR and North America. but output in the
In some parts of the world. climatic limits to
9
southern areas of these regions could only
agriculture are estimated to shift by 200-300 km
10
increase if corresponding increases in soil
per degree of warming (or 100 km per decade
11
moisture were to occur, and this is at present
under a scenario of a 3°C global warming by
12
uncertain.
2060), and 150-200 m in elevation.
13
14
Reduced output in North America. particularly of
There are indications that agriculture has an
15
corn and soybean. would be likely to lead to
ability to adjust, within given economic and
16
increases in world prices of these crops and
technological constraints. to a certain. limited
17
resultant increases in costs of livestock food
rate of climate change. This capability varies
18
and livestock products. The prices of wheat,
greatly between regions and sectors but no
19
rice and other staples would. however, depend
thorough analysis of adabtive capacity has yet
20
on changes in yield potential in other major
been conducted for the agricuiture sector.
21
producing regions, and insufficient is known at
22
present about possible changes of climate in
In some currently highly variable climates,
23
these areas.
farmers may be more adaptable than those in
24
regions of more equable climate. But in less
25
An alternative view on the basis of paleo-analog
developed economies. and particularly in some
26
scenanos. as a resuit of enhanced precipitation
marginal types of agriculture. this intrinsic
27
after 2000. together with further increases in
adaptive capability may be much less. It is
28
temperature and the beneficial direct effects on
important to establish in more detail the nature
29
plant growth. the beneficial agricultural effect in
of this adaptability and thus help determine
30
these regions will be more pronounced.
critical rates of climatic change that would
31
exceed those that could be accommodated by
32
In spite of the existing uncertainties of
within-system adjustments.
33
assessments of regional climate change under
34
different levels of global warming, it is obvious
Recommendations for action
35
that the length of growing season in higher and
36
middle iatitudes will generally benefit crop
37
production potential. Consequently, produc-
This study has emphasised the inadequacy of
38
tivity will increase due to adaptation of later
our present knowledge. It is clear that more
39
maturing crop varieties with higher yields. It is
information on potential impacts would help us
40
natural that revision of agricultural technology
identify the full range of potentially useful
41
and sewing dates. in particular. will lead to
responses and assist in determining which of
42
growth of productivity due to fuller utilisation of
these may be most valuabie.
43
increased heat resources. This applies to all of
44
the agncuitural regions in middle latitudes
Some priorities for future research may be
45
except ones where precipitation deficiencies
summarised as follows:
46
would be manifested. Even with summer
47
drying. it is not necessarily the case that yields
Improved knowledge is needed of effects of
48
would decline. To evaluate fully drying requires
changes in climate on crop yields and live-
49
examination of the ability of these regions to
stock productivity in different regions and
50
adopt crop management practices to make full
under varying types of management. To
51
use of existing technologies.
date. less than a dozen detailed regional
52
studies have been completed. and these are
53
Little is known about likely impacts in semi-arid
insufficient as a basis for generalising about
54
and humid tropical regions, because production
effects on food production at the regional or
55
potential here largely depends on crop-water
world scale.
56
availability, and the regional pattern of possible
57
changes in precipitation is unclear at present.
Improved understanding is needed of the
58
It is wise, however, to assume that crop-water
effects of changes in climate on other
7
1
physical processes. for example on rates of
stand establishment by both natural and artificial
2
soil erosion and salinisation; on soil nutrient
regeneration: and changed species
3
depletion: on pests, diseases and soil
composition.
4
microbes. and their vectors: on hydrological
5
conditions as they affect irrigation water
Two broad types of forests are likely to be very
6
availability.
sensitive to a changing climate: (i) boreal
7
forests, where stands are mainly even-aged and
8
An improved ability is required to 'scale-up'
often temperature limited, and where
9
our understanding of effects on crops. effects
temperature changes are expected to be large;
10
on farm production, on village production,
and (ii) forests in arid and semi-arid regions
11
and on national and global food supply. This
where increased temperatures and stable or
12
is particularly important because policies
decreasing precipitation could render sites
13
must be designed to respond to impacts at
innospitable to continued existence of current
14
the national and global levels. Further infor-
forest stands.
15
mation is needed on the effects of changes in
16
climate on social and economic conditions in
Socioeconomic implications
17
rural areas (eg employment and income,
18
equity considerations, farm infrastructure,
The socioeconomic implications of shifts in tree
19
support services etc).
species ranges will be influenced by the fact
20
that climate wiil probably change much faster
21
Further information is needed on the range of
than tree species can naturally respond (eg
22
potentially effective technical adjustments at
through migration).
23
the farm and village level (eg irrigation. crop
24
selection. fertilising etc) and on the economic
Moreover, new sites may not be edaphically
25
and political constraints on such adjustments.
hospitable. having evolved over thousands of
26
In particular. it is recommended that national
years under other climatic and vegetative
27
and international centres of agricultural
regimes. Further, new range suitabilities, and
28
research consider the potential value of new
actual forest composition and growth patterns
29
research programs aimed at identifying or
under new climates, will have no regard for
30
developing cultivars appropriate for altered
non-ecological boundaries such as woodsheds,
31
climates.
ownerships, parks, nature reserves and
32
recreation areas.
33
Further information is needed on the range of
34
potentially effective policy responses at
It is concluded that climate change could more
35
regional. national and international levels (eg
likely exacerbate most current and near-term
36
realiocations of land use. plant breeding,
issues and tensions rather than relieve them.
37
improved agricultural extension schemes,
This finding is very dependent on the assump-
38
large-scale water transfers etc).
tion that. during the next 30-50 years in
39
response to climate change, forests everywhere
40
Potential impacts on forestry
in the world will be prone to some measure and
41
form of decline. If, on the other hand. forests
42
Biophysical effects
in some regions are largely unaffected by
43
climate change, or actually experience
44
Major forest-type zones and species ranges
increased growth rates, then perhaps most of
the issues and tensions could be at least partly
45
could shift significantly as a result of climate
relieved.
46
change. Results of several studies show that
47
both northern and southern boundaries of
48
temperate and northern forests and tree species
Adaptation
49
may shift hundreds of kilometres northward.
50
Much can be done to reduce the susceptibility
51
At the stand level, the following effects of
of socioeconomic systems to climate-induced
52
climate change on forests are likely: increased
forest declines.
53
mortality due to physical stress: increased
54
susceptibility to and infestations of insects and
Appropriate measures include the whole array
55
diseases; increased susceptibility to and
of forest-management tools, to be chosen and
56
incidences of fire; changed stand growth rates,
implemented as local conditions warrant, but
57
both increases and decreases; more difficult
X
1
some may De detrimental to other indicators, for
Potential impacts of climate
2
example. wildlife or recreation.
change on natural terrestrial
3
4
For wood supply, the forest-products industry
ecosystems and the socio-
5
can move processing technology towards new
economic consequences
6
kinds and qualities of fibre. and pian new mills
7
in areas improving in wood-supply potential.
8
Governments can support economic-
Major findings
9
diversification efforts in forest-based
10
communities. and engage in improved long-
Global increases in the atmospheric
11
range planning for future changes in land
concentrations of greennouse gases (GHG)
12
potential for forestry. Regarding recreation
as a result of anthropogenic activity and the
13
enterprises. another example of a very
associated climate changes pose a serious
14
important forest-based economic sector,
threat to naturai terrestnal ecosystems and
15
governments and private firms must look ahead
related socioeconomic systems.
16
to see how forested landscapes might change,
17
and plan divestments of old facilities and
Global biological diversity is expected 10
18
investments in new facilities accordingly.
decrease with projected warming, possibly
19
setting off extinction.
20
Recommendations for action
Vegetation WIII lag beninc climatic shifts DV
21
several hundred kilometres over the next 30
22
The nature and temporal/spatial distribution of
years. possibly leading to ecosystem
23
climate change itself is highly uncertain, as are
disruption.
24
the vanous ways by which a changing climate
25
could influence forests and their growing sites.
Vegetation-zone losses are greatest at nign
26
and the vanous repercussions this might have
latitudes where the amount of land classified
27
on our uses of forests. Moreover. the means by
as polar desert. tundra and boreal forest is
28
which society might cope with the changing
expected to decline by approximately 20%:
29
environmental and socioeconomic conditions. in
for approximately 35% of current closed
30
a context in which those conditions are rapidly
forest zones, the climate may become
31
changing quite independently of climate
inappropriate as a result of the projected
32
change. are iargely unexpiored so far.
climate changes.
33
34
The following major research and assessment
Montane, alpine. polar. sland and coastal
35
initiatives snould be developed and pursued in
communities, remnant vegetation, heritage
36
the near future (early 1990s) to begin to shed
sites and reserves are particularly at risk.
37
light on the impacts discussed in this section: (i)
38
more secure regional climate scenarios; (ii)
Socioeconomic consequences of these
39
simulation of impacts of climate change on
changes may include disruption of societv
40
managed forest stands: (iii) modelling studies
and related economies with a major
41
for better understanding of matches between
dependence on natural resources as a
42
species and sites; (iv) analyses of the potential
source of fuel. income. medicine and
43
role of forest management in mitigating
construction material. Important fibre
44
undesirable impacts and capitalising on
products and recreation and tourism
45
desirable impacts of climate change; (v)
industries could be adversely affected in
46
regional analyses of potential disruption of
some regions.
47
wildlife habitat and recreational potential of
48
forests due to forest-structure changes brought
The direct effect of increased atmospheric
49
on by climate change; (vi) regional analyses of
50
concentrations of CO₂ may increase plant
potential socioeconomic repercussions on rural
growth, but this positive effect couid be
51
communities. industrial concerns. markets and
reduced over time by air pollution or
52
trade in forest products. and governments, of
ecosystem feedbacks.
53
timber-supply fluctuations due to climate
54
change; and (vii) synthesis studies of the policy
Disturbances such as pest outbreaks and
55
possibilities for the forest sector to prepare for
fires are expected to increase.
56
climate change.
57
9
1
Lack of data and understanding limits more
because of the limited number of adaptive
2
quantitative assessments at this time.
options available to them.
3
4
Principal issues
Changes in the boundaries of
5
vegetation zones
6
The projected changes in climate wiil present
7
these ecosystems with a climate warmer than
Projected changes in global temperature of
8
that experienced during their recent evolution
1.5°-3.5°C and changes in precipitation will
9
and there wiil be warming at a rate 15-40 times
result in the movement of the boundaries of
10
faster than cast climate changes. This
vegetation zones, and will impact on their
11
combination of relatively large and fast changes
floristic composition and associated animal
12
in climate will cause disruption of ecosystems,
species. Boundaries (eg boreai-tundra,
13
allowing some species to expand their ranges
temperate forests, grasslands etc) are expected
14
while others will become less viable and. in
to shift several hundreds of kilometres over the
15
some cases. may disappear.
next 50 years. Real rates of species movement,
16
however. will be restricted by limits on their
17
Current knowledge does not allow a compre-
ability to disperse and the presence of barriers
18
hensive and detailed analysis of all aspects of
to dispersion and, therefore, WIII average
19
the impacts of climate change on natural
approximately 10-100 m/year.
20
terrestrial ecosystems. It is possible. nowever,
21
to make some plausible implications. All
Both coniferous and broad-leaved thermophilic
22
estimates presented below are based on
tree species will find favourable environments
23
scenarios of ennanced atmospheric concen-
much further north than their current limits. in
24
trations of GHG and related changes in global
the northern parts of the Asian USSR, the
25
climate. It is impossible to. evaiuate the
boundary of the zone will move northward
26
consequences of change in climatic fluctuations
40°-50° of latitude (500-600 km). The tundra
27
since the required climatic analyses are not
zone is expected to disappear from the north of
28
available.
Eurasia.
29
30
Particularly sensitive species
Expected changes in precipitation will allow
31
species to extend their boundaries southward.
32
These species which are particularly sensitive to
As a result. broad-leaved species range will
33
climatic changes are:
expand and these ecosystems will be more
34
maritime in terms of species composition. The
35
species at the edge of (or beyond) their
forest steppe subzone in the European USSR
36
optimal range;
will move southern portions of western Siberia
37
the forest-steppe boundary could move up to
38
geographically localised species (eg those
200 km.
39
found on islands, on mountain peaks. in
40
remnant vegetation patches in rurai areas,
In the semi-arid, arid and hyper-arid ecoclimatic
41
and in parks and reserves);
zones of the Mediterranean, GHG-induced
42
climate change will reduce plant productivity
43
genetically impoverished species:
and result in desertification of the North-African
44
and Near-Eastern steppes due to increased
45
specialised organisms with specific niches;
evapotranspiration. The upper limit of the
46
deserts would migrate under the influence of
47
poor dispersers;
climate change and most likely extend into the
48
area that currently corresponds to the lower
49
more slowly reproducing species: and
limits of the Semi-Arid Zone (ie foothills of the
50
high, Mid and Tell Atlas and Tunisian Dorsal in
51
localised populations of annual species.
Northern Africa, and of the main mountain
52
ranges of the Near-Middle East - Taurus,
53
This would suggest that montane and alpine,
Lebanon, Alaoui, Kurdistan, Zagros and Alborz).
54
polar, island and coastal communities, and
55
heritage sites and reserves are particularly at
The impact of climate changes on the present
56
risk since their component species may not be
tropical and temperate rainforest is uncertain.
57
able to survive or adapt to climate change
For example, almost all of Tasmania is expected
1
to become. at best, climatically marginal' in
Pests and pathogens in some cases, are
2
terms of temperate rainforests largely due to a
expected to increase their ranges as a result of
3
rise in winter temperatures suggested by
climate change and, in the case of insects, their
4
climate scenarios. This increase in temperature
population densities. This could place at risk
5
is unlikely to have a direct effect on the forest,
the health of ecosystems and, thereby play an
6
but may facilitate the invasion of less
important role in determining future vegetation
7
frost-toierant species.
and animal distributions
8
9
Changes within ecosystems
Pest outbreaks can also be expected as a result
10
of the increased stress and mortality of standing
11
Projected GHG-induced climate changes will
vegetation resulting from a combination of
12
profoundly affect hydroiogic relationships in
climate-driven stressors. An example from New
13
natural terrestrial ecosystems. Doth directly by
Zealand concerns hard beech (Nothofagus
14
altering inputs of precipitation, runoff, SOII
truncata). A 3°C rise in temperature would
15
moisture. snow cover and meit. and evapotran-
increase annual respiratory carbon losses by
16
spiration as well as indirectly bv altering sea
30%: such a loss exceeds the total annual
17
and lake leveis which influence water levels in
amount allocated to stem and branch growth
18
coastal and shoreline ecosystems.
for this species. With insufficient reserves to
19
repiace current tissue, the tree is weakened,
20
The seasonality of rainfall also affects its impact.
and becomes more susceptible to pathogens
21
A lengthening of the dry season, or conversely
and insects. Following physioiogical drougnt
22
an increase in ground water table levels, could
episodes. several (Nothofagus) species
23
both accentuate salinisation problems. In
succumbed to defoliation insects.
24
Mediterranean and semi-arid climates. where
25
evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation for
Since wetlands, particularly seasonal wetlands
26
long periods and increased percolation from
in warmer regions, provide habitat for the
27
vegetation clearing or excessive irrigation may
breeding and growth of vectors of a number of
28
have raised the water table. surface soil
serious diseases such as maiaria. filariasis and
29
salinisation can be a major problem. Such
schistosomiasis. an increase in average
30
salinisation can kill all but the most halophytic
temperature and any change in the distribution
31
vegetation. increase soil erosion. and reduce
of seasonal wetlands will alter the temporal and
32
water quality. Salinisation is aiready a problem
spatial distribution of these diseases.
33
in many Mediterranean and semi-arid regions
34
(eg coastal Western Australia, the
Wildfire frequency and seventy are expected to
35
Mediterranean. subtropical Africa), and is a
increase as a result of the projected increases
36
major cause of increased desertification.
in available fuel in those areas where drier
37
conditions will prevail. This will influence the
38
GHG-inauced climatic changes will affect the
rate at which new species appear and
39
structure and composition of natural terrestrial
reproduce by providing open areas into which
40
ecosystems as a result of altered relationships
species can migrate.
41
within these ecosystems, perhaps leading to the
42
introduction of new species.
In areas with a distinct wet and dry season
43
(parts of the tropic, and all of the
44
Given the new associations of species that
Mediterranean-ciimate regions), change in the
45
could occur as climate changes. many species
amount of precipitation in rainy months could
46
will face exotic' competitors for the first time.
alter fuel loads by influencing growth. The
47
Local extinctions may occur as climate change
altered fuel loads along with changes in
48
causes increased frequencies of droughts and
precipitations could effect fire intensities during
49
fires, and invading species. One species that
the dry season. A shift towards a slightly wetter
50
might spread, given such conditions, is
climate during the summer rainy season could
51
Melaleuca quinquenervia, a bamboo-like
increase fuel loadings in most of the subtropical
52
Australian plant. This species has already
and temperate woodlands of Mexico, which
53
invaded the Florida Evergiades. forming dense
would suggest increased fire frequencies.
54
monotypic stands where drainage and frequent
55
fires have dried the natural marsh community.
Global biological diversity is expected to
56
decrease with possible socioeconomic
57
consequences as a result of climate change;
58
however, some local increases may also result,
11
1
especially over the longer term. The resulting
developing information on relative species
2
impacts on bioiogical diversity are dependent
and ecosystems sensitivities to climate
3
on the balance between changes in species
change;
4
interactions and adaptation through migration.
5
initiating and supporting regional national and
6
Warming could set off a chain of extinctions by
international research and impacts programs;
7
eliminating keystone herbivores or their
and
8
functional counterparts in other ecosvstems.
9
For example in the 100 years following the
educating resource managers and the public
10
disappearance of elephants in the Hluhluwe
about the potential consequences of climatic
11
Game reserve in Natal, several species of
change for natural terrestrial ecosystems.
12
antelope have been extirpated and populations
13
of open country grazers, such as Wildebeest
14
and waterbuck. have been greatly reduced.
Potential impacts of climate
15
16
The direct effects of increased atmospheric
change on hydrology and water
17
concentrations of CO₂ may increase the rate of
resources
18
plant growth: however, man-induced changes in
19
the chemical composition of the atmospnere
Major findings
20
(eg ozone) and ecosystem feedbacks couid
21
reduce this positive effect over time.
For many watersheds worldwide. especially
22
those in arid and semi-arid regions, runoff is
23
Recommendations for action
very sensitive to small changes and variations
24
in climate. A 1°C to 2°C temperature
25
While the specffic impacts of giobai warming on
increase coupled with a 10% reduction in
26
any one region or a single species are to some
precipitation could conceivably produce a
27
degree matters of conjecture, there are some
40-70% reduction in annual runoit.
28
clear conclusions that can be made. Natural
29
terrestrial ecosystems will change in make-up
Based on empirical data and hydrological
30
and shift in location, and those species which
models. annual runoff appears to be more
31
can adapt and shift will survive. The sensitive
sensitive to changes in precipitation than to
32
species. especially those for which options are
changes in temperature. However, in regions
33
limited. will dwindle and disappear.
where seasonal snowfall and snowmeit is a
34
major part of the total water supply, the
35
Examination of the environmental impacts of
monthly distribution of runoit and soii
36
climate change on natural terrestrial ecosystems
moisture is more sensitive to temperature
37
and the associated socioeconomic con-
than to precipitation.
38
sequences is in its infancy. The studies that
39
have been done are limited, with only specific
The construction of hypothetical scenarios
40
regions and sectors having been examined.
provides a range of runoff responses and the
41
Further limiting these studies is that. for the
characteristics of those responses for
42
most part, existing studies have taken a narrow
particular areas. However, credible forecasts
43
view of the problem and not looked at it from a
are not yet available for any specific region
44
multi-discipiinary perspective. In addition. most
sufficient to designate either direction or
45
of these have examined climate change effects
magnitude of change.
46
on current social, economic and environmental
47
systems and have not considered social and
Vulnerabilities in present water uses (ie where
48
economic adjustments nor impacts and conse-
demand exceeds firm yield) and conflicts
49
quences during ecosystem transitional periods.
among current uses are likely to be
50
exacerbated by global warming in most arid
51
These limitations can be addressed by:
and semi-arid regions.
52
53
assembling relevant inventories of species
The regions that appear to be at greatest
54
and ecosystems;
risk, in terms of serious threats to sustaining
55
the population: are Africa; Maghreb, Sahel,
56
initiating and maintaining integrated
the north of Africa, southern Africa: Asia:
57
monitoring programs;
western Arabia, Southeast Asia. the Indian
1
subcontinent; North America: Mexico, Central
climates must be made available to the
2
America. southwest US: South America: parts
management community.
3
of eastern Brazil; Europe: Mediterranean
4
zone.
Regional impacts
5
6
The relative degree of water management
Continental/national
7
(storage versus mean annual flow) is a
8
primary determinant in adapting to changes
Based on paleociimatic anaiogs coupied with
9
in the mean annual variability.
physically based water-balance models. annual
10
runoff over the whole of the USSR is projected
11
It is essential that future water resource
to rise, aithough runoff is expected to decrease
12
engineering design take into account that
slightly in the forest-steppe and southern forest
13
climate IS a non-stationary process. and that
zones. in any case. winter runoti is expected 10
14
structures with a design life of 50 to more
increase in the regions with snowfall and
15
than 100 years to be designed to accom-
snowmelt. Serious flooding problems could
16
modate climatic and hydrometeorological
occur in many northern rivers of the USSR
17
conditions which may exist over the entire life
18
of the structure.
An assessment of all the river basins in the US
19
shows that the arid and semi-arid reaions of the
20
Principal issues
US would be most severeiv affected bv giobal
21
warming, even though there is a high degree of
22
if meaningful estimates of water resources
water controi. The competing uses of agri-
23
conditions. appropriate for planning and policy
cultural irrigation, municipal water supply and
24
formulation. are to be produced. then studies
hydropower production have stressed even the
25
must include estimates on the frequency,
present system. All other regions in the US will
26
intensity and duration of potential future
probably suffer adverse water-resource impacts
27
hydroiogic events. This is especially critical for
to some degree. whether for hydropower
28
evaluating effects on agricuiture. the design of
production, municipal water supply shortages.
29
water resource management systems, and for
or agricultural irrigation.
30
producing reasonably accurate water supply
31
estimates.
An assessment of the GCM studies for the
32
nations of the European Economic Community
33
In many instances it can be expected that
(EEC) indicates that precipitation and runoff
34
changes in hydrologic extremes in response to
may increase in the northem nations, possibly
35
global warming will be more significant than
causing flooding problems in low-iying
36
changes in hydrologic mean conditions. Thus,
countries. The Mediterranean countries of the
37
attention must be focused on changes in the
EEC may experience a deciine in runoff, thereby
38
frequency and magnitude of floods and
increasing the already senous and frequent
39
drougnts in evaluating the societal ramifications
water supply shortages occurring in that region.
40
of water resource changes.
It is most probable that agnculture will suffer the
41
most adverse effects.
42
Initial general circulation modelling (GCM)
43
studies indicate that interannual variability and
In Japan, prolonged periods of droughts and
44
the ampitude of annual temperature is likely to
shorter periods of intense precipitation may be
45
decrease. but interannuai and diumai variability
likely. Current storage capacity is limited and a
46
of precipitation may increase. Some recent
large proportion of the population is located on
47
GCM experiments show increased frequency of
floodpiains. Water demand can be expected to
48
droughts. progressively increasing from 5% of
increase which will seriously stress the existing
49
the time as for the current climate to 50% of the
water management system.
50
time by the year 2050. These results are in
51
direct contrast to increased precipitation
An increase in precipitation and consequent
52
scenarios based on paleociimatic recon-
flooding along with overloads of stormwater/
53
structions. Meaningful water resource planning
sewerage systems leading to degradation of
54
and policy making cannot be implemented in
surface water quality is possible in New
55
the face of such uncertainty. Clarification and
Zealand.
56
specification of the true information content of
57
the various methods for estimating future
13
1
The United Kingdom can expect an increase in
Reduced flows in the Delaware River would
2
mean annual runoff over most of Britain, but
threaten the city of Philadelphia's water supply
3
with a stronger seasonal variation in peak flows,
intakes in the estuarine portion of the river
4
imposing the need for redesigning existing
through upstream movement of the fresnwater-
5
water management systems.
saltwater interface.
6
7
River basins and critical environments
Large lakes/seas
8
9
Runoff in the Volga River basin. after under-
The Caspian Sea, which is the largest closed
10
going an initial decrease through the year 2000.
water body in the world and receives nearly
11
is expected to increase after that year.
80% of its runoff from the Volga River. will
12
respond to the initial decrease in projected
13
Studies indicate that hydrological conditions in
Volga River flows to the year 2000, but will
14
the Sahelian zone are very sensitive to climatic
increase thereafter. This will greatly improve the
15
conditions, especially precipitation. Research
severely degraded water quality and ecological
16
suggests, for example, that a 20% to 30%
conditions in the Sea.
17
decrease in precipitation could lead to a 15% to
18
59% reduction in runoff. AS for cotential
Based on GCM results. the Great Lakes are
19
changes in water resources in the future. it can
expected to incur net basin runoff decreases of
20
be mentioned that the situation is very
23% to 51% under a doubled CO₂ climate
21
uncertain. Therefore, additional comprenensive
scenario. Hydroelectric power production. the
22
studies on this problem, which is very important
very important commercial navigation uses. and
23
for the region. are required.
lake water quality due to thermal stratification.
24
are expected to be adversely affected.
25
A study of the Sacrament-San Joaquin River
26
basin showea how a highly managed water
The Arai Sea would continue to experience
27
resources system, dependent on snowmeit-
water-quaiity degradation by polluted irrigation
28
generated runoif. would be affected by global
return flows, as the precipitation-runoff
29
warming. Air temperature increases changed
increases projected for the area would not be
30
the timing and increased the magnitude of
enough to compensate for increased expansion
31
snowmeit-generated runoff by 16% to 81%,
of irrigated agriculture.
32
severely stressing the flood-control capabilities
33
of existing reservoirs. However. summer runoff
Recommendations for actions
34
decreases of 30% to 68%. coupled with soil
35
moisture decreases of 14% to 36% and a
The most essential need is for more reliable and
36
doubling of water demand by the year 2020.
detailed (both in space and time) estimates of
37
suggest that serious water use conflicts and
future climatic conditions. These estimates must
38
periodic shortages are a distinct possibility for
be regionally specific and provide information
39
this system.
on both the frequency and magnitude of events.
40
41
In the Murray-Darling basin of Australia. the use
Increased understanding of relations between
42
of spatial analogs indicates that precipitation
climatic variability and hydrologic response
43
couid decrease by 40% to 50%. However,
must be developed. Such work should include
44
based on GCM outputs, the summer-dominant
the development of methods for transiating
45
rainfall area of Australia will possibly expand to
climate model information into a form that
46
encompass 75% of the continent by 2035.
provides meaningful input data to watershed
47
Runoff couid double on the Darling River.
and water resource system models.
48
49
A water supply-demand stochastically-based
Areas particularly vulnerable to even small
50
sensitivity anaiysis was conducted for the
changes in climate must be identified
51
Delaware River basin, a highly urbanised
worldwide. Vulnerabilities must be ascertained
52
watershed in the northeastern US. Basin-wide
considering both natural and anthropogenic
53
estimates of annual runoff indicate a possible
conditions and potential changes. This work
54
decrease of 9% to 25%. Also. the probability of
should also include evaluations that focus not
55
drought increases substantially throughout the
just on climate change effects, but also on
56
basin. The Delaware River supplies a large
effects associated with shorter term variability
57
percentage of New York City's water supply
and patterns of persistence.
58
which is aiready operating below its safe yield.
1
Intensive assessments of water resource
Giobal warming can be expected to affect the
2
sensitivities are necessary in developing
availability of water resources and biomass.
3
countries. especially those located in
both major energy sources in a large number
4
environmentally sensitive and and semi-arid
of developing countries. Such changes in
5
regions. where the potential for conflicts
areas which lose water may jeopardise
6
associated with low water-resource system
energy supply and materials essential for
7
development and rapidly increasing water
human habitation and energy.
8
demands is high.
9
Vector-borne diseases such as maiaria.
10
Studies are needed that produce improved
schistosomiasis, leishmaniasis, dengue and
11
procedures for operating water-management
Japanese encephalitis can be expected
12
systems in consideration of climate uncertainty.
under warmer climatic conditions to shift to
13
A related aspect of this work is the development
higher latitudes.
14
of design criteria for engineered structures that
15
specifically incorporate estimates of climatic
Should severe weather. even such as tropical
16
variability and change.
cyciones, occur more frequently or become
17
more intense as a result of climate changes,
18
Very little is currently known about the effects of
human settlement and industry may be
19
climate change on water quality. Although
seriously affected, with large loss of human
20
water quality concerns are becoming
life.
21
increasingly important, the separation of human-
22
induced versus climate-induced changes in
Principal issues
23
water quality is a very difficult problem.
24
Specifically, there is an immediate need to
The impact on developing countries, many of
25
identify those aspects of this problem that hold
which lack resources for adaptation. may be
26
the most promise for yielding credible evalu-
particularly disruptive. Understanding likely
27
ations of climatic effects on water quality.
impacts of climate change on human settle-
28
ment. energy, transport, industry and human
29
health in such countries should be a high
30
Potential impacts of climate
priority.
31
change on human settlement,
32
the energy, transport and
The impacts of climate change on human settle-
ment and related socioeconomic activity,
33
industrial sectors, human health
including the energy, transport and industry
34
and air quality, and likely
sectors, will differ regionally, depending on
35
impacts of changes in UV-B
regional distribution of changes in temperature,
precipitation, soil moisture. patterns of severe
36
radiation
storm. and other possible manifestations of
37
climate change. As the GCM's scenarios
38
Major findings
provided by Working Group I have indicated,
39
change in some of these climatic characteristics
40
Climate change and even a modest global
may differ considerably among regions. In
41
sea-level rise can be expected to prove
addition, the vulnerability to change in climate
42
disruptive to human settlement in many
of human settlement and related economic
43
vulnerable coastal areas of some island
activity varies considerably among regions and
44
nations and communities where drought,
within regions. For example. coastal areas may
45
floods and changed agricultural growing
generally be more vulnerable to climate change
46
conditions have affected water resources,
than inland areas within the same region.
47
energy, public health and sanitation, and
48
industrial or agricultural production.
Development of effective strategies to respond
49
to climate change will require much better
50
Global warming can be expected to cause a
capability to predict and detect regional climate
51
significant shift in the permafrost zone. Such
change and occurrence of severe meteoro-
52
change will prove quite disruptive to roads,
logical phenomena.
53
railways, buildings, oil and gas pipelines,
54
mining facilities and infrastructure in the
55
permafrost region.
15
1
Human settlement
through refugee camps and settlements, spilling
over into surrounding communities. in addition,
2
3
The largest impacts on humanity of climate
resettlement often causes psychological and
4
change may be on human settlement with the
social strains, and this may affect the health and
5
existence of entire nations such as the Maldives,
welfare of displaced populations.
6
Tuvalu. and Kiribati imperilled by a rise of only
7
a few metres in sea-levels and populous river
Energy
8
delta and coastal areas of such nations as
9
Egypt, Bangladesh. India, China and Indonesia,
Among the largest potential impacts of climate
10
threatened by inundation from even a moderate
change on the developing world are the threats
11
giobal sea-level rise. Coastal areas of such
in many areas to biomass, a principal source of
12
industrialised nations as the United States and
energy in most sub-Saharan African nations and
13
Japan will also be threatened. although these
many other developing countries. More than
14
nations are excected to have the requisite
90% of the energy in some African countries
15
resources to CODE with this chailenge, just as
depends on biomass energy (fuelwood), and a
16
the example of The Netherianas has
large proportion of the labour of women in such
17
demonstrated.
African countries is expended to collect
18
fueiwood for cooking. Due to uncertainties in
19
Besides flooding of coastal areas. human sertie-
water resource projections derived from current
20
ment may be jeopardised by drought which
climate models, it is very difficult to provide
21
could impair fooa supplies and the avaiiability of
reliable regional projections of future moisture
22
water resources. Water shortages caused by
conditions in these countries. Drier conditions
23
irregular rainfall may especially affect developing
could be expected in some countries or
24
countries, as seen in the case of the Zampezi
regions, and in those situations energy
25
river basin. Biomass is the principal source of
resources could be severely impaired. Analysis
26
energy for most of the nations of sub-Saharan
of this threat should be a top priority for energy
27
Africa and changed moisture conditions in some
planners.
28
areas reducing this biomass could pose grave
29
problems for comestic energy production and
Developing countries, including many in Africa,
30
construction of sheiter.
depend significantly on hydropower. By
31
changing water resource availability, climate
32
Although there has been only a handful of
change may make some present hydropower
33
city-specific studies. they suggest that climate
facilities obsolete and future energy planning
34
change couid prove very costly to major urban
more troubled.
35
areas in industrialised nations. A study has
36
projected that an effective CO₂ doubling could
The studies to date of the likely impact of global
37
produce a major water shortfall for New York
warming on the energy sector in developed
38
City equal to 28% to 42% of the planned supply
countries are confined largely to six countries:
39
in the Hudson River Basin, requiring a $3 billion
Canada. the Federal Republic of Germany,
40
project to skim Hudson River flood waters into
Japan, the United Kingdom, the USSR and the
41
additional reservoirs.
US. Generally, they show differing overall
42
aggregate impacts depending on how much
43
Although in the permafrost region global
energy use is related to residential and office
44
warming may result in expansion of human
heating and cooling. Climate warming will
45
settlement poleward, thawing of the permairost
increase energy consumption for air
46
may also produce major disruptions for infra-
conditioning and conversely lower it for heating.
47
structure and transport and adversely affect
48
stability of existing buildings and conditions for
In addition, the energy sector may be affected
49
sture construction.
by response strategies against global warming,
50
such as on emissions stabilising policy.
51
The gravest effects of climate change may be
Controversy on the way to obtain CO2-free
52
those on human migration as millions are
energy has already been arising, particularly the
53
aprooted by shoreline erosion, coastal flooding
options of increased reliance on nuclear power
54
and agricultural disruption. Many areas to
or hydropower weighed against related safety
55
which they flee are likely to have insufficient
and environmental concerns.
56
health and other support services to accom-
57
modate the new arrivals. Epidemics may sweep
1
Although vital to many developing countries that
Reduced snow and ice conditions in colder
2
may find existing supplies of biomass or
regions on the other hand could result in better
3
hydroelectric energy jeopardised by changing
operating conditions in those areas.
4
climatic conditions, such studies would also
5
prove useful to energy planners in industrialised
There has been little anaiysis of likely impacts
6
nations.
on ocean transport. The iargest effect would
7
appear likely to be some jeopardy to such
8
Transport
shipping infrastructure as ports and docking
9
facilities, threatened both by sea-level rise and
10
Generally. the impacts of climate change on the
storm surge. Some climate projections indicate
11
transport sector appear likely to be quite
the possibility that tropical cycione intensity may
12
modest with two exceptions. Ultimately, the
increase. This could have adverse implications
13
largest impact of climate change on the
for ocean shipping and infrastructure.
14
transport sector would appear to be changes
15
produced by regulatory policies or consumer
Generally, there is very little analysis of likely
16
shifts designed to reduce transport-related
impacts of climate change for the transport
17
emissions of greenhouse gases. Because of
sector in developing countries. Remedying this
18
the importance of the transport sector as a
oversight should be a top priority, as efficiency
19
source of greenhouse gases. it seems certain to
of the transport sector is likely to be an
20
be targeted as a major source of potential
essential element in countries ability to respond
21
reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
to climate change.
22
23
The second large impact on the transport sector
Industry
24
concerns inland shipping where changes in
25
water levels of lakes and rivers may seriously
Studies of likely impacts of climate change on
26
affect navigation and the costs of barge and
the industrial sector tena to De concentrated
27
other transport. Studies to date. focused
heavily in certain sectors such as recreation and
28
entirely on the Great Lakes region of Canada
only in a handful of industrial countries,
29
and the US, have shown quite large potential
principally Australia. Canada. Japan, the UK and
30
impacts. Climate scenarios have shown a likely
the US. There is very little analysis of the likely
31
drop of lake levels of as much as 2.5 m
impacts of climate change on industry in
32
resuiting from an effective CO₂ doubling. Such
developing countries. although there is some
33
changes could increase shipping costs for such
evidence to suggest that industry of developing
34
principal cargoes as iron ore. grain, coal and
countries may be especially vulnerable to
35
limestone. as well as adversely affecting
climate change. An especially important factor
36
recreational boating.
is the likely change in the production map of
37
primary products as a result of climate change
38
Generally. impacts on roads appear likely to be
39
quite modest. except in coastal areas where
Changes in availability and cost of food and
40
highways or bridges may be endangered by
fibre may significantly affect the competitiveness
41
sea-level rise. Studies in Atlantic Canada and
and viability of such derivative industries as
42
Greater Miami, US indicate that such infra-
food processing, forest and paper products.
43
structure costs could prove very costly to
textiles and clothing. Climate change may be
44
highway infrastructure in such exposed coastal
expected to have differential impacts on the
45
areas. Reduced snow and ice and lessened
availability and cost of food. fibre. water and
46
threat of frost heaves should generally produce
energy.
47
highway maintenance savings as suggested by
48
a study of Cleveland. Ohio, US. These savings
Just as the motor vehicle and the energy
49
might be offset in some cases by increased
sectors are likely to be influenced by regulatory
50
demand for air conditioning in public transport
decisions and shifts in consumer patterns
51
vehicles.
emanating from concerns about limiting
52
greenhouse emissions, heavy manufacturing
53
Impacts on railways appear likely to be modest,
may face readjustment to new situations such
54
although heat stress on tracks could increase
as transboundary siting constraints and
55
summertime safety concerns on some railways
international mechanisms for development and
56
and reduce operational capability during
transfer of new technology. Efficiency in use of
57
unusually hot periods.
energy may become an even more significant
17
1
competitive factor in steel, aluminium and other
famine has enormous consequences for human
2
metals industries and automotive manufacturing.
health and survival.
3
Public concerns about limiting greenhouse
4
emissions may also create opportunities for
The potential scarcity in some regions of
5
energy conservation or 'clean technology'
biomass used for cooking, and the growing
6
based industries. Studies of likely impacts of
difficulty in securing safe drinking water due to
7
climate change on industry tend to be clustered
drought, may increase mainutrition in some
8
in the recreational sector where direct impacts
developing countries.
9
of climate change are more ascertainable.
10
Generally, global warming can be expected to
Air pollution
11
affect adversely snow skiing facilities and
12
expand the summer recreation season. With
13
sufficient lead time industry may be able to
SOx, NO, and auto-exhaust controls are
14
adjust to many of the changes accompanying
expected to be implemented paraitel with CO₂
control measures. Concerns about possible
15
global warming. Shortages of capital in
16
developing countries which may be vunerable
energy penalties and CO2 emissions implica-
tions of such control measures will need to be
17
to flood, drought or coastai inundation may,
:3
however, constrain such industry aDMity to
incorporated into such planning. Moreover.
19
design effective response strategies.
global warming and stratospheric ozone
20
depietion appear likely to aggravate tropo-
21
Human health
spheric ozone problems in polluted urban areas.
The tropospheric temperature rise induced by
22
the Greenhouse Effect could change homo-
23
In principle, human beings have a capability for
geneous and heterogeneous reaction rates,
24
adaptation, but episodic cold weather and
solubility to cloud water, emission from marine,
25
heatwaves cause a risk of excess mortality.
soil and vegetative surfaces and deposition to
26
Increased heat stress in summer is iikely to
plant surfaces of various atmospneric gases,
27
increase heat-reiated deaths and illnesses.
including water vapour and methane. A change
28
Generally, the increased hot weather mortality
in water vapour concentration will lead to
29
appears likely to exceed any reduced mortality
changes in the concentration of HO, radicals
30
from hypotnermia and other cold weather
31
related illnesses. aithough these conditions may
and H₂O₂, which are important for the oxidi-
sation of VOC. SO₂ and NOₓ in the atmosphere.
32
vary among regions. Global warming and
Climate change could induce change in wind
33
stratospheric ozone depletion appear likely to
and pressure patterns, humidity, atmospheric
34
worsen air pollution conditions. especially in
stability, cloud. precipitation. and distribution of
35
many heavily populated and poiluted urban
arid lands. The predicted change of the
36
areas. Climate change-induced alterations in
patterns of cloud cover. stability in the lower
37
photochemical reaction rates among chemical
atmosphere. circulation and precipitation could
38
poilutants in the atmosphere may increase
concentrate or dilute pollutants. and change
39
oxidant levels. adversely affecting numan nealth.
their distribution patterns and transformation
40
rates in regional or local sectors. A change in
41
There is a risk that increased UV-B radiation
aerosol formation by atmosphenc conversion
42
resulting from depietion of the stratospneric
from the VOC. NOₓ, and SO₂ and windblown
43
ozone layer could raise the incidence of snow
dust from and land could lead to changes in
44
blindness. cataracts and skin cancer. The
visibility and planetary albedo.
45
increased skin cancer risks are expected to rise
46
most among fair-skinned Caucasians in high-
47
latitude zones.
UV-B radiation
48
49
Another major effect of global warming may be
Besides the human health implications of
50
the movement poleward in both hemispneres of
increased UV-B radiation already discussed,
51
vector-borne diseases carried by mosquitoes
such radiation may also significantly affect
52
and other parasites. Parasitic diseases have the
terrestrial vegetation, marine organisms, air
53
potential for increase and reintroduction in
quality and materials. Increased UV-B may
54
many countries.
adversely affect crop yields. There are some
55
indications that increased solar UV-B radiation
56
Changes in water quality and availability may
which penetrates into the ocean surface zone
57
also affect human health. Drought-induced
where some marine organisms live may
58
adverselv affect marine phytoplankton,
1
potentially reducing marine productivity and
A I m sea-level rise (the maximum projected
2
affecting the global food supply. Increased
by the year 2100) would displace
3
UV-B radiation can also be expected to
populations, destroy low-lying urban
4
acceierate degradation of plastic and other
infrastructure, inundate arable lands,
5
coating used outdoors. Global warming is
contaminate fresh water supplies and alter
6
expected to decrease stratospheric
coastlines. These effects could not be
7
temperatures and this may affect the state of
prevented. The severity would vary among
8
the stratospheric ozone layer.
coastal nations.
9
10
Recommendations for action
Coastal ecology is affected by the rate of
11
sea-level rise - too rapid a rise could disrupt
12
Assessment of vulnerability of countries,
life cycles of many estuarine biota.
13
especially in the developing wond, to
14
possible loss of energy resources such as
Erosion of wetlands and organic matter from
15
hydropower and biomass and an examin-
sea-ievel rise can increase estuarine and
16
ation of available substitutes under new
near-shore productivity in the short-term.
17
climate conditions should be a high priority.
18
Global climate warming can lead to changes
19
Research is critically needed into the
in physical (upwelling in the ocean), chemical
20
adaptability of vuinerable numan populations,
(increased degration of organic matter in
21
especially the elderly and the sick to the
poiar and subpoiar regions. possibie change
22
occurrence and intensity of changes in the
in biogeochemical cycles of vital elements)
23
heat and cold waves as well as the potential
and biological (redistribution of marine
24
for vector-borne diseases to shift
organisms, shift of productive areas towards
25
geographically.
the poies and possibie decrease of primary
26
production) conditions.
27
Identification of coastal areas subject to
28
inundation from sea-level rise of various
29
Adverse ecological and biological
magnitudes and to storm surge. and of the
30
extent of populations and affected agricultural
consequences (eg loss of habitat) will vary by
31
geographic zone.
and industrial production. should be given
32
hign priority by policy makers.
33
A rise in both water temperature and sea-
34
It is important that developing countries have
level may lead to the redistribution of
35
the capability to assess climate change
commercially important fish species and
36
impacts and to integrate this information into
benthic organisms. Fishenes production may
37
their clanning. The world community should
not change significantly. but there could be
38
assist countries in conducting such
important regional dislocations.
39
assessments and work to create indigenous
40
climate-change impact assessment
Shipping and ocean transportation will benefit
41
capabilities in such countries.
from less sea ice. but some iand and marine
42
mammais and birds will lose migratory and
43
hunting routes.
44
Potential impacts of climate
45
change on the world ocean and
Impacts of sea-level rise (impacts on
46
coastal zones
coastal zone)
47
Major findings
The sea-level rise effects of giobal warming are
48
more certain than the terrestrial consequences
49
of temperature, precipitation and evapotran-
50
A 30-50 cm sea-level rise (projected by the
spiration changes. The magnitude and rate of
51
year 2050) poses serious problems fpr the
sea-level rise will determine the abililty of social
52
low-lying island nations and coastal zones.
and natural ecosystems to adapt to the rise.
53
Protecting these areas entails considerable
Direct effects of the rise are straightforward:
54
cost.
inundation of low- lying coastal areas; erosion
55
and recession of sandy shorelines and wet-
56
lands; increased tidal range and estuarine salt-
19
1
front intrusion: increases in sedimentation in the
acquifers. which also suppiy water for municipal
2
zone of tidal excursion; and increase in the
purposes in many areas. Many estuarine areas,
3
potential for saitwater contamination of coastal
worldwide. with large population centres would
4
freshwater acquifers. The predicted changes in
be affected, particularly those where a decrease
5
climate may aiso affect the frequency and
in net freshwater runoff is also projected as a
6
intensity of coastal storms and hurricanes,
consequence of global warming.
7
which are the major determinants of coastal
8
geomorphic features.
Finally, as sea-level rises, much of the
9
infrastructure in low-lying urban areas would be
10
The socioeconomic impacts of these direct
affected, requiring major engineering design
11
physical effects are uncertain and more difficult
adjustments and investments. in particular,
12
to assess. and are region- and site-specific.
stormwater drainage and sewerage systems of
13
There are three general impact categories that
many cities will be affected. Coastal protection
14
encompass ther physical effects:
structures. highways, power plants and bridges
15
may require redesign and reinforcement to
16
threatened populations in low-iying areas and
withstand increased flooding, erosion, storm
17
island nations.
surges and wave attack.
18
19
alteration and degradation of the biophysical
Alteration of the biophysical
20
properties of beaches, estuaries and
properties of estuaries and wetlands
21
wetlands.
22
An acceierated rise in sea-level could severely
23
inundation. erosion and recession of barrier
redistribute coastal wetlands. Salt. brackish and
24
beaches and shoreline.
fresh marshes as well as mangrove and other
25
swamps would be lost to inundation and
26
Threatened populations in low-lying
erosion; others would transform and adapt to
27
areas and island nations
the new hydrologic and hydraulic regime or
28
would migrate inland through adjacent lowlands
29
The most important socioeconomic impact of
not impeded by protective structures. The
30
sea-level rise is the inundation that the
value of these wetlands as habitat for wildlife
31
projected magnitude of 0.5-1.0 m could have on
would be impaired during the transitional period
32
intensiy utilisea and densely populated coastal
and their biodiversity may decrease. Although
33
plains. A I E rise would produce a coastline
many wetlands have kept pace or have
34
recession of several kilometres in a number of
increased in area under the historic rate of sea-
35
countries. Other countries have a substantial
level rise owing to sediment entrapment and
36
proportion of land area between 1 E and 5 m
peat formation, vertical accretion of wetlands
37
above sea-level. with high density coastal
has not been observed to occur at rates
38
populations. For example, a 1 E sea-ievel rise
comparable to those projected for sea-level rise
39
could inundate 12-15% of Egypt's arable land
in the next century.
40
and 14% of Bangiadesh's net cropped area,
41
dispiacing millions of inhabitants.
Wetlands are vital to the ecology and economy
42
of coastal areas. Their biologicai productivity is
43
Sea-level rise would also expose a greater
equal to or exceeds that of any other natural or
44
proportion of low-lying areas to coastal storm-
agricultural system, although little of that
45
flooding from storm surges. Densiy populated
productivity may be available to marsh animals
46
urban areas could be protected at great costs,
and coastal fisheries. Over half the species of
47
but less denseiy populated areas stretched out
commercially important fishes in the south-
48
along the coastlilne could be protected. In
eastern US use salt marshes as nursery
49
these situation. large-scale resettlement might
grounds. Wetlands also serve as sinks for
50
be necessary. Another consequence of sea-
poilutants and provide a degree of protection
51
level rise is greater incursion of saltwater into
from floods, storms and high tides. Based on
52
freshwater estuarine areas, along with larger
these functions, marshes can provide a present
53
fidal excursion. This would reduce the fresh-
value to society of as much as $US5500/acre
54
water portion of estuarine rivers. especially
or over $US10,000/ha.
55
during drought periods, adversely affecting
56
municipal and industrial freshwater supplies,
Coastal wetlands and estuaries are important to
57
and could contaminate coastal groundwater
many species. If sea-level rise is too rapid,
20
1
natural succession of the coastal ecology will
resettlement are available landward of the
2
not take place and will lead to great disruption
coasts. coral islands have very limited
3
in life cycles. In the short term. production of
possibilities. If the rate of sea-level rise exceeds
4
fisheries could rise as marsnes flood, die and
the rate of vertical coral growth (* 1 cm/yr),
5
decompose. thus improving fisheries habitat in
then inundation and erosive processes begin to
6
some cases and providing more nutrients.
dominate, leading to the demise of the coral
7
Further nutrients will become available from the
atoil. Although there are engineering solutions
8
leaching of soils and peat which become more
for retarding erosion and protecting against
9
frequently flooded. This temporary increase in
storm damage of continental coasts, coral atolls
10
productivity appears to be nappening now in
cannot be effectively protected.
11
the southeast US where sea-ievel rise is
12
compounded by land subsidence. However,
Barrier beaches are important for human use,
13
this temporary benefit for fisheries may De
Doth for subsistence and recreation. and as
14
balanced by negative impacts on birds and
protection for lagoons and mainiand areas from
15
other wildlife as the habitat area is decreased.
coastal storms. Coastal areas have always
16
In the longer term, by 2050 the overall impact
been hazardous. Societies have adapted to or
17
on fisnenes and wiidiife is likely to be negative.
sought to control the most extreme conditions
18
resuiting from natural climate variability. The
19
While considering potential changes in the
loss of habitable coastal areas. which are
20
biogeochemical cycles of chemicais from sea-
typically denseiv populated will undoubtedly
21
level rise. it should be noted that (i) growth of
lead to large-scale resettlement. Since most
22
nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations on a
commercial and subsistence fisheries are Ge
23
regional scale (in subpoiar and mid latitudes, in
facto located in the very same vuinerable areas,
24
the Bering Sea in particular) would result from
the impacts are twofold: reduction in ecological
25
flooding of coastal areas and from soil erosion:
(wetlands) habitat that sustains fish populations.
26
and (ii) many pesticides which are presently
coupied with increased threats to habitable
27
held in sediments could be released into the
coastal areas. Many areas around the globe,
28
marine environment by coastal flooding.
comprising thousands of shoreiine and affecting
29
millions of people would be adversely affected
30
The combination of climatic changes will cause
by a rise of 1 m, or even 0.5 m. For the most
31
coastal ecosystems to move inland, unless
part, prevention of the primary physical effects
32
humankind intervenes, and poleward. Also. if
is not economical for most of the threatened
33
sea-level rise is rapid, as predicted. productivity
coastline. Therefore, the prospect for adverse
34
will likely fail. but there may be some decades
impacts should be considered to be extremely
35
during which wetlands-based productivity
important and virtually irreversible.
36
increases before it falls. Once the ocean begins
37
to stabilise at its new level productivity will
Impacts on the world ocean
38
begin to decrease.
39
Global climate warming can change the
40
Inundation and recession of barrier
physical, chemical and biological processes in
41
islands, coral atolls and other
the oceans, and affect productivity of the
42
shorelines
oceans and fisheries. Atmospheric CO₂
43
doubling can increase sea-surface temperature
44
Sea-level rise would cause inundation and
by 0.2°-2.0°C and change heat balance
45
recession of all types of shorelines, especially
components. impacts will differ among
46
low-iving coastal areas. Many beaches have
geographic zones.
47
very small gradients of 1:100 or less. A 1 m rise
48
in sea-ievel would inundate 100 E of beach.
In addition, an increase in atmospheric CO₂
49
Additional shoreline recession would result from
could cause an increase in sea water acidity up
50
normai erosive processes including storm
to 0.3 pH and elevation of the lysocline
51
surges and wave attack. The potential
(because of solution of additional amounts of
52
destruction of coral atolls is perhaps most
CaCO₃). These processes might be
53
significant. because these island areas serve
accompanied by a decrease in the stability of
54
both as contained human habitats as well as
the complexes of trace metals with aquatic
55
important ecological habitats with high
humus, strengthening the toxic impacts of these
56
biodiversity. Unlike continental areas with
substances on marine organisms as well as a
57
receding coastlines, where areas for
21
1
change in the conditions of accumulation of
by up to 30-50% in the zone of high latitudes.
2
deposits.
This factor, along with the expected increase of
3
UV-B radiation, resulting from the depietion of
4
Coastal ecosystems will be exposed to the most
the ozone layer, could accelerate bacterial and
5
severe impact due to a water temperature
photochemical degradation of pollutants and
6
increase and especially to sea-level rise.
reduction of their 'residence time' in the marine
7
Disturbances by hydrological and hydro-
environment. Ecological and biological
8
chemical conditions in these regions will be
consequences of climate changes will vary
9
accompanied by a shift of feeding zones of
among geographic zones. A regional approach
10
many commercial fish species and benthic
is needed to study the biogeochemical carbon
11
organisms. a change in the trophic structure of
cycle. especially in the most productive and
12
coastai communities, and as a consequence. a
vulnerable ecosystems of the ocean.
13
decrease in their productivity. At the first stage,
14
as the flux of nutrient increase, in the process of
The highly productive subpolar and polar
15
land flooding. a certain increase in the
ecosystems of the Bering Sea. Arctic Seas and
16
productivity of coastal areas might be observed.
Southern Ocean are important to study because
17
of the high-latitude areas will see the greatest
18
A change in heat balance and the circulation
changes. These areas are important to the total
19
system in the oceans will produce a direct effect
global carbon cycle in the ocean. in climate
20
on the productivity of marine ecosystems.
forming processes, in fisheries, and in marine
21
Taking into consideration the fact that 45% of
mammal and bird production.
22
the total annual production is in the zones of
23
oceanic and coastal upwellings and suppoiar
International investigations, planned for the
24
regions, a change in these regions would
region of the Bering Sea. will contribute to the
25
determine the future productivity of the oceans.
determination of the role of subpolar
26
ecosystems in the formation of earth's climate,
27
Acccording to the results of numerical
as well as to a more comprehensive study of
28
experiments with the use of global circulation
possible ecological impacts of global warming
29
models of the atmosphere-ocean system. as
on the ocean, in particular an impact on
30
well as paeio-oceanographical data. the giobal
fisheries.
31
warming would be accompanied by a
32
weakening of the intensity of oceanic upwellings
Many fisheries and marine mammai populations
33
because of a decrease in the mendional
are heavily stressed from fishing pressure.
34
temperature gradient. This process wiii invoive
Climate changes will increase stress and the
35
a decrease in the productivity of these
chance of collapse. However. for some
36
ecosystems. However, some increase in the
species. the new climate may be more
37
intensity of coastal upwellings as a result of
advantageous to their well-being.
38
increasing temperature difference between iand
39
and water surface, would partially compensate
One benefit of warming will be the reduction of
40
for the reduction of oceanic upweilings.
sea ice and its impact on shipping. However,
41
Besides. an increase in the temperature at high
there are ecological concerns. Land animals
42
latitudes will be accompanied by an increase in
use sea ice for migratory and hunting routes,
43
their productivity. As a result of the above
while for many species of marine mammais (eg
44
changes. the redistribution of productive zones
seals. polar bears, penguins) sea ice is an
45
will probably occur. This could lead to
essential part of their habitatand thus reduction
46
disturbances in the trophic structure of marine
of the amount or duration of ice can cause
47
ecosystems and to a change in the conditions
difficulties for such animals.
48
of the formation of the stocks of commercial
49
fishes.
Recommendations for action
50
51
An increase in the zone of the area of warm
Identification and assessment of the risks to
52
equatorial and tropical waters would cause the
coastal areas and islands and living
53
movement of pelagic and benthic communities
resources of a 0.3-0.5 m rise in sea-level.
54
of these areas to the boreal and temperate
55
regions. This circumstance might significantly
Assessment of potential leaching of toxic
56
affect the structure of world fisheries. Under
chemicals with sea-level rise.
57
conditions of climate warming, the intensi-
58
fication of biodegradation processes will occur
1
Improvement of the methods for analysing
however, actual impacts will depend on the
2
the major compnents of oceanic branch of
balance between increased temperature and
3
carbon cycle (the carbonate system and
snowfall. Significant ice losses, however, are
4
organic carbon).
unlikely until after 2100.
5
6
Assessment of the possible impacts of
Degradation of permafrost is expected with
7
increased UV-B radiation from stratospheric
an increase in the depth of the seasonal
8
ozone depletion on oceanic and estuarine
freeze-thaw (active) layer and a recession of
9
ecosystems.
permafrost to higher latitudes. The depth of
10
the active layer is expected to increase by 1
11
Determination of ecological impacts of Arctic
m over the next 40-50 years. Although major
12
and Antarctic sea ice reductions.
shifts are expected in climate zones.
13
movement of permairost boundaries will
14
Development of methodologies to assess the
significantly lag behind that of the climatic
15
impacts on living marine resources, and
zones, receding only 25-50 km during the
16
socioeconomic impacts. of changes in the
next 40-50 years.
17
ocean and coastal zone.
18
19
Increases in depth of the active layer and
Development and implementation of
20
recession of permafrost octeward will have
multinational systems to detect and monitor
21
significant implications for existing and
expected environmental and socioeconomic
22
planned structures. facilities and
impacts of ocean and coastal zone changes.
infrastructure, as well as con rrent
23
24
ecosystems.
25
Impacts of climate change on
Changes in the terrestrial cryosphere will
26
the terrestrial cryosphere and
enhance global warming (positive feedback
27
socioeconomic consequences
on global and local climate) through
28
influences on the radiation and heat balance
29
Major findings
and release of greenhouse gases.
30
31
The areai coverage and duration of seasonal
The terrestrial cryosphere. because of its
32
relative responsiveness to climate, provides
snow cover are expected to decrease in
33
an effective means of monitoring climatic
most locations (except in areas of the Arctic
34
change.
and Antarctic) resulting in regional changes
35
in the hydrology and adverse effects on
36
snow-dependent activities. such as transpor-
Lack of knowledge and understanding limits
37
tation and recreation. Activities such as
more quantitative assessments at this time.
38
agriculture dependent on water from spring
39
snowmelt could also be negatively affected,
Principal issues
40
particularly in areas at lower latitudes. Less
41
snowfall could reduce transportation costs by
The terrestrial component of the cryosphere
42
road. rail and air, but could increase those
consists of seasonal snow cover, glaciers,
43
costs for those activities which rely on winter
terrestrial ice sheets, permairost and seasonally
44
roads for access.
frozen ground. These ice masses currently
45
cover approximately 41 million km² (percentage
46
Glacier recession is expected over the next
of land area) with seasonal snow cover covering
47
50 years in most locations: however, this
as much as 62% of the Eurasian continent and
48
response is complicated by the effect of
virtually all of North America north of 35°
49
increased snowfall in some areas and local
latitude.
50
terrain characteristics. This has significant
51
implications for those areas which rely on
Projected changes in climate will dramatically
52
glacial melt for water and hydroelectric
reduce the areal extent and volume of the
53
power.
terrestrial cryosphere. This not only has
54
implications with respect to changes in the
55
Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will be
availability of fresh water, changes in sea-level
56
brought out of balance as climate changes;
and in terrain characteristics, but also has
57
implications for societies and related economic
23
1
systems which have become dependent on. or
From a positive impacts perspective, reductions
2
are limited by, the existence of a terrestrial
of seasonal snow cover will reduce expendi-
3
cryosphere. Another important consideration is
tures on snow removal and will increase access
4
the feedback mechanisms with climate-induced
opportunities.
5
changes in the terrestrial cryosphere affecting
6
the climate itserf.
Ice sheets and glaciers
7
8
Seasonal snow cover
The relationships between climate and ice
9
sheets and glaciers are not completely
10
Global circulation models (GCM) indicate that in
understood owing to their complexity, the
11
most parts of the Northern and Southern
number of related variables and the lack of
12
Hemispheres the duration of snow cover is
information. increased temperatures generally
13
expected to decrease as a result of increased
resuit in increased ablation and hence a
14
temperature and. in most regions, a
decrease in ice mass. Conversely, increased
15
corresponding decrease in total mass of the
snowfall usually increases ice mass. Since
16
snow. Areas where snow cover is projected to
projected changes in climate for some ice-
17
increase include latitudes south of 60°S and
covered regions include both increases in
18
higner elevations of inland Greenland and
temperature and snowfall, understanding the
19
Antarctica.
impact of climatic changes on giaciers and ice
20
sneets must consider the compined impact.
21
A reduction in the areal snow coverage and in
22
the snow cover season will result in a positive
The bulk of the earth's ice mass is stored in the
23
climatic feedback increasing globai warming.
Antarctic ice sheet divided between an eastern
24
portion resting on bedrock and a western
25
Loss of snow cover has both negative and
portion resting on the sea bed. Much of the
26
positive socioeconomic consequences.
remaining ice mass is contained in the
27
Decreases in snow cover will result in increased
Greenland ice sheet with smaller quantities
28
risks of damages and losses for those systems
stored in glaciers throughout the world.
29
which reiy on snow as protection (ie insulation)
30
from cold winter climates. Included are
Although observed data are limited. it is
31
agricultural crobs such as winter wheat. trees
estimated that both Antarctic and Greeniand ice
32
and shrubs. hibernating animais and
sheets are at present roughly in equilibrium,
33
construction and maintenance of municipal
with annual gains close to annual losses.
34
infrastructures.
GHG-induced climatic change will tend to bring
35
these sheets out of balance with the new
36
Reductions in both the temporal and spatial
climate regime. Change in ice- sheet volume is
37
coverage of seasonal snow cover will have
likely to be slow, however, with significant loss
38
significant rammications for water resources as
unlikely to until after 2100. Calculations for
39
the amount of water available for consumptive
Greenland suggest a 3% loss of ice volume in
40
(eg potable and irrigation water) and non
the next 250 years is possible based on the
41
consumptive eg hydroelectric and waste
projected changes in climate. In the case of the
42
management) uses decreases. Particularly
Antarctic ice sheet the situation is more
43
sensitive are those areas such as the Alps and
complex. The mass of the eastern ice sheet is
44
Carpathians. the Altai mountains of Central Asia,
expected to remain virtually the same or
45
the Syr Dariva and Amu Dariya region of the
increase slowly as a result of expected
46
USSR. the Rocky Mountains and the North
increases in precipitation and temperatures. In
47
American Great Plains all of which are
contrast the western ice sheet appears quite
48
dependent on snow meit for the majority of their
vulnerable to climate change, with mass losses
49
water resources.
expected at a relatively rapid rate as a result of
50
melting and iceberg calving. Collapse of the
51
Changes in snow cover will also affect tourism
western ice sheet as a result of warming from
52
and recreation- based industries and societies,
the ocean is also possible. but highly
53
particularly winter recreation sports such as
speculative and unlikely to occur for thousands
54
skiing. Projected climate change could
of years.
55
eliminate a $50 million ski industry in Ontario,
56
Canada.
The response of glaciers to climatic change will
57
depend on their type and geographic location.
24
1
In general. however, they have been shrinking
in the ground makes it behave uniquely as an
2
for the last 100 years and are expected to
earth material, and makes its properties
3
continue to do so in response to projected
vuinerable to climatic warming.
4
changes in climate. In Austria a 3°C warming
5
by 2050 is projected to cause a reduction by
At present about 20-25% of the iand surface of
6
about one-nalf in the extent of alpine glaciers.
the earth contains permafrost, primarily in the
7
Melting of glaciers in the Soviet arctic
poiar regions but also in the alpine areas at
8
archipelagoes may result in their disappearance
lower liatitudes. It occupies approximately 10.7
9
in 150-250 years. In contrast. an assessment of
million km² in the USSR, 5 million km² in
10
mountain giaciers in the temperate zone of
Canada. 2 million km² in China and 1.5 million
11
Eurasia indicates that up to 2020 these glaciers
km² in Alaska. Present and past climate is the
12
will, in general, remain essentially unchanged
major determinant of permairost occurrence
13
with increased precipitation compensating for
and characteristics: however a variety of other
14
increased melt.
factors is also important. for example. the
15
properties of the soil, and overlying terrain,
16
Ice sheet and glacier meiting will result in higher
vegetation and snow cover.
17
sea- levels. Observations over the last century
18
indicate that levels have been rising between
Permairost is usually present where the mean
19
1-3 mm/year primarily as a resuit of mass loss
annuai air temperature is less than -1°C. At
20
from alpine glaciers. Current projections
temperatures near this value t: is discontinuous
21
suggest an accelerated rise with GHG warming
in extent (discontinuous permairost zone) Both
22
to a most probable increase of 0.2-0.9 m by
its extent and thickness increase at progres
23
2100.
sively higher latitudes where temperatures are
24
lower. It has been found to extend to depths of
25
Glacial merting can act as a negative feedback
approximately 1000 m or more in parts of
26
to regional and global warming, with heat
Canada. approximately 1500 m in the USSR and
27
extracted from the air to meit glacial ice and
100-250 m in China.
28
snow thereby reducing the degree of warming.
29
Permairost can also exist in seabeds. There is
30
The meiting of glaciers will also alter regional
extensive ice-bound material in the continental
31
hydroiogic cycles. In New Zealand it has been
shelf beneath the Arctic Ocean: however, this
32
estimated that a 3°C increase in temperature
permairost is relic (ie if formed under past
33
would in the short term increase glacier fed river
conditions and would not form under current
34
flow in some western rivers. increasing
ones).
35
hydroeiectric generation by 10%. Another effect
36
of glacier retreat is possible increased debris
Permafrost is to a large extent inherently
37
flows. Large amounts of debris masses on
unstable since it exists so close to its melting
38
steep siopes will become exposed as a result of
point. Most responsive to changes in climate
39
glacial retreat and, therefore, would be unstable
would be those portions nearest the surface.
40
and vuinèrable to the effects of erosion.
Climate warming would deepen the active layer
41
Landslides would result leading to burial of
(the layer near the surface subject to annual
42
structures. traffic routes and vegetation.
freezing and thawing) leading to a decrease in
43
Obstructions of river flows and increased
soil stability. This permafrost degradation would
44
sediment loads resulting in changes in water
lead to thaw settlement of the surface
45
quantity (eg local floods and reduced flows
(thermokarst), ponding of surface water, slope
46
downstream) and water quality would also be
failures (landslides) and increased soil creep.
47
likely to occur as a result of debris flows.
This terrain instability would result in major
48
concerns for the integrity and stability of roads,
49
Permatrost
airfields, dams, reservoirs and other facilities in
50
areas which contain permafrost. In addition
51
Permatrost is the part of the terrestrial
slope failures, thermokarst and loss of
52
cryosphere consisting of ground (soil and rock)
near-surface moisture, as the increased depth of
53
that remains at or below freezing throughout the
the active layer would move limited water
54
year. It usually contains ice which can take a
supplies further from the surface, would have
55
variety of forms varying from ice held in soil
detrimental effects on vegetation and could lead
56
pores to massive bodies of more or less pure
to significant decreases in plant populations. in
57
ice many metres thick. The presence of this ice
the longer term, permafrost degradation would
58
allow the growth of deeper rooted, broad-leaved
25
1
species and the establishment of denser forest
necessitate a better understanding of the nature
2
of coniferous species. Wildlife could also be
and dynamics of these ice masses and the
3
affected through changes in terrain, surface
factors that control them. This will require:
4
hydrology and food availability.
5
establishment or enhancement of
6
Assessment of the effects of climate change on
integrated, systematic observation
7
permafrost in any particular location must
programs commensurate with research on
8
consider factors other than temperature, eg
the use of more efficient ground-based
9
changes in summer rainfall and snow cover. in
systems and remote sensing technologies
10
general, however. the projected warming during
designed to provide baseline information
11
the next several decades would significantly
and trends;
12
deepen the active layer and initiate a northward
13
retreat of permafrost. It is expected that a 2°C
concurrent monitoring of those facilities.
14
global warming would shift the southern
structures and natural resources that are at
15
boundary of the climatic zone currently
risk due to projected changes in the
16
associated with permafrost over most of Siberia
terrestrial cryosphere;
17
north and northeast by at least 500-700 km.
18
The southern extent of permafrost will lag
establishment of new guiding materials and
19
behind this. moving only 25-50 km in the next
instructions on design and future construc-
20
40-50 years. The depth of the active layer is
tion practice in permafrost zones. taking
21
expected to increase by 1 m during the next
into account projected climate change;
22
40-50 years. Projected changes in permafrost
23
in Canada are of similar magnitude.
concurrent monitoring of those facilities.
24
structures and natural resources that are at
25
The melting of permafrost will result in the
risk due to projected changes in the
26
release of methane and to a lesser extent CO₂
terrestrial cryosphere;
27
from previously frozen biological material and
28
from gas hydrates. The extent to which this will
international cooperative efforts on the
29
enhance the greenhouse effect is uncertain, but
relationships between components of the
30
one estimate IS about 1°C by the middle of the
terrestrial cryosphere and climate in
31
next century.
conjunction with other determining factors
32
including feedback mechanisms:
33
The socioeconomic impacts of permafrost
34
degradation will be mixed. Maintenance costs
cryosphere models;
35
of existing northern facilities such as buildings,
36
roads and cipelines will tend to rise with
impacts assessments nationally and
37
relocation needed in some cases. Change in
regionally that will provide data and
38
current construction practices will be needed.
information on the impacts of climate
39
as may be changes in sanitary waste disposal.
change on areas in which components of
40
Benefits from climate warming and permafrost
the terrestrial cryosphere occurs and the
41
meit are likely on agriculture, forestry and
resulting socioeconomic consequences;
42
hunting and trapping.
and
43
44
Recommendations for action
development and distribution of relevant
45
educational material on climate changes,
46
Projected GHG-induced changes in climate will
its impacts on the terrestrial cryosphere
47
lead to ablation of global ice masses.
and socioeconomic consequences as well
48
Uncertainty exists. however, regarding how this
as a wider distribution of research results.
49
global response will be reflected at the regional/
50
local level and how the individual ice masses
51
and seasonai ice and snow will respond. The
52
most important effects of climatic change at
53
high latitudes and elevated regions will be on,
54
and through changes in the terrestrial cryo-
55
sphere. Furthermore, the terrestrial cryosphere
56
is particularly suited for early detection of the
57
effects of climate change. These two points
26
1
Outstanding issues and future actions
2
3
The key element which could improve our
Enhancement of integrated systematic
4
assessment of vulnerability of future
observations is needed for providing studies
5
agricultural production. land and water
of baseline information and trends through
6
uses, as well as distribution of waters
the use of more efficient ground-based
7
resources, are regional predictions of
systems and remote sensing technologies.
8
changes in soil moisture. precipitation,
9
surface and subsurface runoff regimes and
Criteria should be developed for evaluation
10
their interannual distributions. Uncertainties
the significance of impact. Sensitivity
11
and shortages in our knowledge of this
indicators to detect vulnerability of the
12
regard, limit our ability to judge
environmental and socioeconomic systems to
13
conclusively and quantitatively of
climate change should also be developed.
14
socioeconomic and environmental impacts
Such assessments should facilitate the
15
of climate change on agriculture and
development of systematic action plans to
16
forestry, water and food supply, irrigation
ameliorate these impacts.
17
and hydro energy. The lack of sufficient
18
knowledge and understanding of many
19
processes in crvosphere and their reaction
20
to global warming is considerably limiting
21
the possibility to make- a quantitative
22
assessment of consequences of climate
23
change.
24
25
Assessments of climate change impacts on
26
any field of human activities or ecosystems in
27
each specific region are, in general, a matter
28
of conjecture, and thus mean that efforts
29
must be made to develop analytical tools and
30
methods and impact assessments for
31
achieving trustworthy and reliable
32
conclusions. Major research initiatives
33
should be developed for providing more
34
reliable regional scenarios of future changes,
35
including issues of aridisation and
36
desertification and assessment of adaptation
37
of agricultural practices and water supply
38
systems to new climatic conditions through
39
the use of advanced agricultural and
40
imgation technologies.
41
42
Enhanced research efforts are needed,
43
especially in developing countries. to devise
44
effective alternative adaptation measures to
45
climate change, and to identify critical
46
climatic factors in agriculture and for
47
ecosystems that determine the level of
48
variability and sensitivity to climate change.
49
50
An immediate launch is needed of a cooper-
51
ative international program of long-term
52
monitoring and systematic surveillance to
53
obtain information and identify trends. In the
54
first instance it should cover systematic
55
observations of terrestrial ecosystems, world
56
oceans and, particularly, cryosphere, which
57
are most sensitive to climate change.
27
1
Concluding remarks
2
3
Humankind is under threat from a man-induced
longer term technologies such as safer nuclear
4
climate change. Each country should take
power systems and fusion energy systems,
5
steps to understand the impact on its
need to be pursued actively by the developing
6
population land resources due to such a
countries.
7
change, and the consequences of sea-ievel rise,
8
the changed character of atmospheric
The majority of nations in tropical and mid
9
circulation and the resulting changes in typical
latitude zones, all coastal and island states
10
weather patterns, reduction of fresh water
should ensure that prospective climate change
11
resources, increased UV-B radiation and
and related sea-level rise are taken into account
12
spreading of pests and diseases. These can
in long-term planning of hydraulic and irrigation
13
affect the potential of fooa and agriculturai
constructions, in particular in decision making
14
production and adversely affect human health
about proposed development and settlement of
15
and well-being.
coastal zones.
16
17
Similarly, ecosystems on earth are also under
The capacity of less developed nations to adapt
18
threat from man-induced climate change. Too
to likely climate change, and to minimise their
19
rapid a change in climate may not allow species
own contributions to it through greenhouse gas
20
to adapt and. thus. biodiversity could be lost on
emissions, is constrained by their limited
21
land, on sea and in the air. These losses could
resources, by their debt problems and by their
22
occur equaily in the cryosphere regions. where
problems in developing their economies on a
23
melting of sea ice could accelerate. and in the
sustainable and more equitable basis. These
24
equatorial regions where sea surface
nations will need assistance in development,
25
temperatures could increase.
use and maintenance of technologies applicable
26
to their particular energy, industrial, forest and
27
The world community recognises the need to
agricultural infrastructure.
28
undertake certain actions to reduce land
29
mitigate impact of climate change. Specific
30
measures should follow the assessments of
31
potential impact on the biosphere and on
32
human activity. and a comparison of the net
33
costs of adaptation and mitigation measures.
34
35
Despite the uncertainties in assessment of
36
potential impacts. as emphasised in this
37
summary, it is clear that measures can De taken
38
which are cost-effective and which can mitigate
39
the rate of climate change. Thus. energy
40
conservation. improved fossil-fuel combustion
41
and exhaust gas treatment, use of renewable
42
energy and reforestation can provide short-term
43
options for reduction of greennouse gas
44
emissions. The transfer of technology in these
45
areas, coupied with financial support from
46
developed countries, is vital for the developing
47
countries so that they can contribute to the
48
global approach to meeting the challenge of
49
climate change.
50
51
Longer term options must emphasise
52
development and use of renewable sources of
53
energy. Such technologies are especially
54
needed in many African nations, where the
55
possibility of reduction in availability of water
56
would reduce the amount of biomass. which is
57
their main source of energy. In addition, other
28