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Global Change: White House Conference Briefing Book [2 of 2] [1990]
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Global Change: White House Conference Briefing Book [2 of 2] [1990]
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Global Change: White House Conference Briefing Book [2 of 2] [1990]
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THE WHITE HOUSE
Office of the Press Secretary
For Immediate Release
February 26, 1990
STATEMENT BY THE PRESS SECRETARY
President Bush today invited a number of countries, the European
Community, and the Organization of Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD) to send official delegations to a White House
Conference on Science and Economics Research Related to Global
Change. The Conference will be held in Washington, D.C., April
17-18, 1990.
The President announced his intention to host this conference
during his meeting with President Gorbachev and again recently in
a speech to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change. The Conference will be devoted to science and economics
issues relevant to policy on global environmental issues,
including climate change. It is designed to substantially
enhance and broaden international understanding of the important
science and economics research issues related to global change.
The Conference will also assist in framing a strategy for
implementing a joint international understanding of this science
and economics research effort, and linking that knowledge to the
policy process both nationally and internationally. The
Administration considers the Conference a vital next step in a
joint international approach to address possible changes in the
global environment.
Conference participants have been invited to send delegations
consisting of their senior scientific, environmental, and economic
officials. The President has designated the Director of the
Office of Science and Technology Policy, Dr. D. Allan Bromley;
the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, Dr. Michael
Boskin; and the Chairman of the Council on Environmental Quality,
Mr. Michael R. Deland, to serve as Co-Chairmen of this
Conference.
# # #
FACT SHEET
FOR
THE PRESIDENT'S WHITE HOUSE CONFERENCE
ON
SCIENCE AND ECONOMICS RESEARCH RELATED TO GLOBAL CHANGE
2/26/90
On February 26, 1990, the President invited the Heads of
State from seventeen countries, the European Community,
and the OECD to send ministerial-level delegates to a
White House Conference on Science and Economics Research
Related to Global Change.
The Conference will be held in Washington, D.C. on April
17-18, 1990.
The President first indicated his intention to host such
a Conference on this subject during his Summit meetings
with President Gorbachev, on December 4, 1989, and later
on Monday, February 5, 1990 during his speech to the
United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
The Conference will be devoted to science and economics
research issues relevant to policy on global change,
including climate. The Conference is designed to address
important next steps that substantially enhance and
broaden international understanding of science and
economic research issues that relate to global change.
Further, the Conference seeks to frame the initial steps
towards a strategy for implementing joint international
science and economics research efforts. It also seeks to
integrate and link scientific and economic research
results to both the domestic and international policy
process. The Conference is unique as an international
forum both because it focuses on the essential questions
of research needed to support the international policy
process and because it seeks for the first time to join
research issues central to both the science and the
economics related to global change.
O
The Conference focuses on "Global Change", a scope of
research interest that has evolved out of the science
that concerns itself with understanding the fundamental
processes that govern the way the global Earth functions.
Thus, the research agenda not only includes global
climate change, but also includes other important global
processes such as ozone depletion in the polar regions
and on global scales, biodiversity, large scale changes
in land use and their impact on global processes, such as
deforestation, and other large scale processes such as
1
desertification.
The Conference is conceived as an integral part of the
on-going international process of trying to understand
changes in the global environment. The need for
substantially improved understanding of both the science
and economics of global change has been noted by
virtually all world leaders. This Conference will focus
on scientific and economic research issues as a
complementary effort to the on-going Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other up-coming
international meetings that seek to address the serious
policy issues that evolve out of the concerns for the
changes in the global environment, particularly climate
change. The President strongly supports the IPCC efforts
and expects that the results of the Conference will
contribute to the on-going international debate and
action on these issues. For example, the leadership of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has been
invited to take an active role in the Conference.
The Conference will convene a delegation of three
mínisterial-level officials from a representative group
of nations, each representing one of three essential
disciplines: science, economics, and the environment. The
Conference was conceived with the idea that a small
representative group of countries would be invited to
participate; their selection is based on the simple
criteria that the meeting should include countries or
representatives of country interest that have
substantial populations, large land masses,
industrialized economies or heavy future energy needs,
substantial research infrastructures, or have provided
international leadership on issues related to climate and
global change. A representative group of countries has
been selected. The President has asked the heads of state
in the following countries and organizations to send a
delegation. These countries and organizations are:
1. Australia
2. Brazil
3. Canada
4. Federal Republic of Germany
5. France
6. India
7. Indonesia
8. Italy
9. Japan
10. Mexico
11. Netherlands
2
12. Nigeria
13. Norway
14. Poland
15. Soviet Union
16. United Kingdom
17. Zaire
18. European Community
19. OECD
It is expected that each country or organization will
send their mínísterial-level official to represent each
of their agencies of science, economics, and the
environment, together with no more than two staff
associates per official. It is suggested that one
delegate in each of the three areas will be an individual
who is currently active in scientific or economics
research. It is recognized that the delegations are
likely to have one "at-large" member. Thus, the total
delegation size should not exceed ten per country. Once
the delegations are determined, it is planned to consult
with these countries on agenda details.
The Conference is designed to be a forum to bring a
number of ministerial-level leaders together to enhance
international cooperation and to build the basis for
joint efforts in these vital areas. It is hope that the
delegates, working together, will agree upon those areas
of opportunity for cooperative action in the areas of
scientific and economics research. The goal would be to
address questions such as:
* How well can we predict temperature trends in the
decades ahead ?
* How "good" are our global-scale models, such as
models to predict temperature changes ?
* How well can we predict the interconnections between
global environmental change and the resulting social
and economic impacts ?
* What are the economic cost of responding to global
change ?
* Are "good" are our economic models ?
By addressing such questions, it is hoped that the
nations might pledge to support an international research
effort related to global change that focuses rapid
3
improvement of both scientific and economic knowledge and
developing the necessary infrastructure, including:
* Establishing a more formal international mechanism
to improve the coordination of global change science
and economic research programs, and
*
Participating in cooperative research efforts, such
as the World Ocean Circulation Experiment and
cooperative economic projects of the OECD.
The Conference is a White House Conference, initiated by
the President. Hence, the President has asked three
Assistants to the President, in the relevant areas, to be
the Co-Chairmen the Conference. The three Co-Chairmen
are: the President's Science Advisor and Director of the
Office of Science and Technology Policy, Dr. D. Allan
Bromley; the Chairman of the President's Council of
Economic Advisers, Dr. Michael J. Boskin; and the
Chairman of the President's Council on Environmental
Quality, Mr. Michael R. Deland.
The President stated, "this Conference is a vital next
step in a joint international approach to address changes
in the global environment".
(File=Guidance.225)
4
CONCEPT PAPER OBJECTIVES
March 6, 1990
The Conference will be devoted to science and economic issues
relevant to policies on global change, including climate. The
primary objectives of the White House Conference are to:
Improve our understanding of the current state of
international knowledge in scientific and economic
research,
Identify major gaps and uncertainties in both scientific
and economic understanding,
Assess the analytic tools and data that are found to be
essential to improving both national and international
environmental policy, and sensitizing the three
communities involved to the activities and needs of the
others in addressing global change research, and
Develop a joint "Strategy Document" in which the
expertise, experience, and data available in the
participating countries can be brought together in a more
integrated and coherent fashion to address global change.
TACTICAL OBJECTIVES
February 23, 1990
1.
To provide an occasion for the President to demonstrate
America's willingness to play a leadership role in organizing
ongoing international efforts to respond to the potential
risks and opportunities associated with global change.
2.
To provide a setting for the President to present America's
overarching vision of how environmental, economic and other
needs might best be balanced in the future given the emergence
of worldwide concern about rapid change.
3.
To facilitate the development of a strategy for integrating
worldwide scientific and economic research on global change
issues and to establish and share research priorities for
unilateral countries. and multilateral action among the participating
1
WORKING GROUP THEMES AND QUESTIONS
THEME I: DECISION-MAKING IN THE FACE OF UNCERTAINTY
What are the economic and scientific research questions about global change that
you need to answer in order to develop domestic and international policies?
In what areas would resolution of economic and scientific uncertainty have the
greatest impact on your actions regarding global change?
THEME II: INTEGRATING ECONOMIC
AND SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH
How do we ensure that global change research provides the information decision
makers need (problem focus versus solutions focus)?
How do we ensure integration of economic and scientific research in regards to
global change?
THEME III: BUILDING A PARTNERSHIP FOR ECONOMIC
AND SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH
How do we create an international mechanism to carry out integrated economic
and scientific research on global change?
GREAT OF THE PRESENT X
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20503
February 26, 1990
MEMORANDUM FOR DISTRIBUTION
FROM:
JACK FELLOWS (395-3935)
SUBJECT: VISION OUTLINE
Attached you will find a first cut at a two page vision outline
based on the Saturday discussion and material provided by some of
you. Please comments ASAP by FAX (395-4817)
DISTRIBUTION (FAX)
Richard Schmalensee 395-6947
Mark Kerrigan
586-5313
Dick Morgenstern
252-0780
Harlan Watson
Bill Robertson
504-4615 371-2815 653-5414
Bob Corell
357-9629
101
OMB/ESD FAX# 3954817 OR 3953165
15:02
06/92/20
Draft: 2/26/90
Vision Outline
Introduction
o
The Earth's population is estimated to doubling over the
next century.
Economic activity may need to expand some five to ten fold
to sustain a population increase of this magnitude.
A possible consequence of this economic expansion could be a
significant depletion of our limited natural resources and
further stress on the environment.
O
It is conceivable that at some level man's activities might
threaten the very existence of Earth habitation.
o
General Challenge: The challenge for all nations is to
develop a new approach which achieves the needed economic
growth, but at the same time preserve the environment and
our natural resources for future generations.
I call this new approach "Global Stewardship".
Global Change Definition
There is evidence that man's activities may be causing
global environmental changes (e.g., ozone depletion,
deforestation, species loss, etc.) or as commonly referred
to by the science community as "Global Change".
o
However, there remains significant uncertainty about the
scale at which these changes are occurring and man's
relative contribution to these changes beyond the Earth's
natural global changes that have been occurring for millions
of years.
U.S. Position on Global Stewardship
O
Given the need for economic growth and these levels of
uncertainty, "Global stewards" will need new tools to
effectively evaluate how to respond to global change issues.
200
OMB/ESD FAX# 3954817 OR 3953165
15:02
06/92/20
By tools, I'm talking about improved predictive modeling of
the Earth system, technologies and practices that can help
us respond (i.e., mitigate or adapt) to global change, and
economic models that can evaluate the impacts of global
changes and proposed responses.
The U.S. has made a commitment to take economically and
environmentally sound actions now and whatever further
actions are necessary as these tools mature.
List the domain of response actions and investments in tool
improvements taken by the U.S. (e.g., this conference,
Malta, Noordwijk, clean air legislation, National Energy
Strategy, wetlands, tree planting, U.S. Global Change
Research Program, and the U.S. support for the IPCC, World
Climate Conference, and a Framework Convention, etc.).
Challenge to Conference Participants
The development of the appropriate tools needed for
effectively responding to global change issues will require
integrating scientific, mitigation/adaptation, and economic
research.
Although these tools will support the IPCC and WCC process
and be critical for a framework convention, there is no
international forum to coordinate the evolution of these
critical tools.
Challenge the conference participants to agree and support a
report/communique that endorses the following commitments:
-
The Global Stewardship vision.
-
A robust international program that integrates
scientific, mitigation/adaptation, and economic
research.
-
Establish the degree of coordination and coordinating
mechanism for these joint research activities.
Offer a U.S. strawman document to focus discussion away from
response actions.
The document could be either a draft research plan
responding to the challenge in real-time or a draft
communique that accepts the vision and a commitment to
establish a research coordination mechanism.
If it is a research plan, it would be built on current U.S.
plans to integrate scientific and economic research (i.e.,
IGBP, the Committee on Earth Sciences' U.S. Global Change
Research Program and Mitigation and Adaptation Research
Strategy Working Group, etc.)
02/27/90
23:44
OMB/ESD FAX# 3954817 OR 3953165
001
STATE to THE UNDER THE
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
WASHINGTON. D.C. 20503
February 27, 1990
MEMORANDUM FOR DISTRIBUTION
FROM:
JACK FELLOWS (395-3935/FAX 395-4817)
SUBJECT: VISION AND CONFERENCE STRATEGY OUTLINE
Attached you will find a second draft of the outline based on the
comments I had received by COB today. It was quite easy to
accommodate all comments except those discussed as "Outstanding
Issues". Trying to incorporate these issues would require a
wholesale change in the outline.
Unless the group would like to meet again to attempt to resolve
these differences of opinions, I suggest that we adopt this
outline and present it and the Outstanding Issues to the larger
group for comment. Please let me know by COB 2/28 if you would
like to meet.
FAX: Three pages plus cover letter.
DISTRIBUTION (FAX)
Richard Schmalensee 395-6947
Mark Kerrigan
586-5313
Dick Morgenstern
252-0780
Harlan Watson
371-2815
Bill Robertson
504-4615
Bob Corell
357-9629
Nancy Maynard
395-3719
Franmarie Keel
653-5414
02/27/90
23:45
OMB/ESD FAX# 3954817 OP 3953165
002
Vision and Conference Strategy Outline (Draft 2/27/90)
Introduction
O
The Earth's population is estimated to double over the next
century.
o
Economic activity may need to expand some five to ten fold
to sustain a population increase of this magnitude and to
significantly reduce global poverty.
O
A possible consequence of this economic expansion could be a
significant depletion of our limited natural resources and
further stress on the environment.
o
General Challenge: The challenge for all nations is to
achieve the economic growth necessary to meet the needs of
the Earth's expanding population and at the same time
preserve the environment and our natural resources for
future generations.
O
I call this new approach "Global Stewardship". We must
recognize that the Earth is not ours alone; it belongs to
our descendants as well.
Global Change Definition
O
There is evidence that man's activities may be causing
global environmental changes (e.g., ozone depletion,
deforestation, species loss, etc.) or as commonly referred
to by the science community as "Global Change".
O
However, there remains significant uncertainty about the
scale at which these changes are occurring and man's
relative contribution to these changes beyond the Earth's
natural global changes that have been occurring for millions
of years.
0
Moreover, there is significant uncertainty about the
economic and human consequences of global changes and about
the cost of mitigating them.
U.S. Position on Global Stewardship
o
Given the need for economic growth and these levels of
uncertainty, "Global Stewards" will need new tools to
evaluate effectively how to respond to global change issues.
o
By tools, I'm talking about improved predictive modeling of
the Earth system, technologies and practices that can help
us respond (i.e., mitigate or adapt) to global change, and
economic models that can evaluate the impacts of global
changes and proposed responses.
02/27/90 23:46
OMB/ESD FAX# 3954817 OR 3953165
003
These tools are critical to the Global Stewardship vision.
The U.S. is committed to continuing its leadership role with
regard to global change, including the commitment to take
economically and environmentally sound actions now (e.g.,
science investments, CFC reductions, IPCC, WCC, etc.) and
whatever further actions are appropriate as these tools and
our knowledge base matures.
Challenge to Conference Participants
This commitment includes the U.S. offer to host the first
negotiation session of the Framework Convention on climate
change in the late Fall after the IPCC working groups submit
their final reports.
However, it will be very difficult for a Framework
Convention to reflect the Global Stewardship vision and
propose responsible response options without the tools
outline above.
Developing these tools will require the support and
integration of scientific, mitigation/adaptation, and
economic research at unprecedented scales.
The U.S. has made a strong commitment to the research needed
to improve this tools. Yet, because of the complexity and
scale of this research effort, we need an international
forum to support and oversee the responsible evolution of
these critical tools.
o
Challenge the conference participants to agree and support a
research plan/communique that endorses:
-
The concept of Global Stewardship vision and the need
to reflect this vision in the IPCC, WCC, and Framework
Convention process.
-
The development of the needed tools through a robust
international research program that integrates
scientific, mitigation/adaptation, and economic
research.
-
Establish a coordination mechanism to support these
international research activities.
o
Prior to the conference, provide the participants a U.S.
strawman that supports these goals and discourages the
discussion of premature response actions.
o
The President will present this vision and challenge, but
not take part in the conference working groups.
02/27/90
23:47
OMB/ESD FAX# 3954817 OR 3953165
004
Outstanding Issues
Research Plan/Communique
The strawman could be either a draft research plan for the
participants to negotiate and accept during the conference
or a draft communique that commits the participants to the
Global Stewardship vision and the challenges but the exact
research plan and coordination would be worked out later.
The research plan approach is likely the preferable option
but may be difficult to produce given the conference date.
o
If it is a research plan, it could be built on current U.S.
Global Change Research Plan, IGBP, and the mitigation,
adaptation, economic research charter being developed by the
Committee on Earth Sciences' Mitigation and Adaptation
Research Strategy Working Group, etc.)
Mitigation/Adaptation Research
o
The comments were mixed on the inclusion of
mitigation/adaptation research.
If it is focused properly on research, it could probably be
an important element.
However, there were concerns that this is technology
demonstration and development, not research.
Response Actions
Several comments addressed the need for the U.S. to be ready
for the inevitable discussion by countries interested in
immediate response actions.
The comments ranged from including a challenge on developing
"no-regret" response actions at the conference, just
preparing a strategy to deal with countries calling for
action that are premature, or basically broadening the
conference to address response actions and policies.
GLOBAL STEWARDSHIP
Global stewardship is our shared responsibility to manage the Earth's finite
natural resources in ways that assure the sustainability of humanity on this
planet. Global stewardship is a continuing process of political, economic and
social decision making that meets the needs of the present generation
without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own
needs.
Global stewardship will become the dominant scientific, economic and
environmental issue of the 21st century. Current trends indicate that the next
century will see a doubling of our global population. Most of this growth will
take place in developing countries. Economic activity must expand some five
to ten fold in order to sustain this population. This growth can be achieved
only through the synergy of democratic political institutions and market
economic systems. The impact of an expansion of this magnitude on an
already stressed environment could be catastrophic. Solutions must be
found, within the next quarter century, which will allow increased economic
activity without mortgaging our natural resource base.
For perhaps the first time in human history, we now understand that our
progress depends on accounting for the depletion of natural resources along
with their consumption. A new understanding of global limits is emerging.
But this understanding does not spell the end to human progress. It does
mean that we are now called to create new visions for that progress and new
directions for our creative energies and technologies. Global stewardship is
the key.
Through global stewardship we must advance our knowledge of natural and
human systems. Through global stewardship solutions must be found which
allow economic growth without degrading the environment. Solutions must
be found which promote stable democracies and market economies within
which sustainable growth can occur. Meeting this challenge will require an
integration of scientific, economic, and environmental concerns--an
integration which moves global stewardship and human sustainability to
center stage.
As"global stewards" we need new tools to effectively evaluate how to respond
to global change issues. Scientific and economic research must provide many
of these tools. The challenges are enormous. Global change is concerned with
such diverse, but interrelated, issues as ozone depletion, greenhouse gases,
climate change and warming, food security, water supply, sea level changes,
wetlands, deforestation, biodiversity, population changes, and energy
demands. A common ingredient in each of these issues is the level of
uncertainty about the scale at which these changes are occurring and
humanity's relative contribution to the change. As global stewards we must
address these uncertainties by increasing our scientific and economic
knowledge and, if necessary, take action even in the face of the remaining
uncertainty.
Therefore, the challenges of global stewardship require agreement in these
three areas:
Decisemments
Taking action in the face of uncertainty.
Integrating economic and scientific research and
Building a partnership for economic and scientific
research.
Humanity is part of nature. Our existence, therefore, depends on our ability
to draw sustenance from a finite natural world without destroying the
systems that regenerate that world. Building an integrated program of
economic and scientific research is the step we must take today on the path of
global stewardship. Global stewardship is not a fixed state but a process of
change and harmony in which the present and the future are brought into
balance to meet human needs forever.
THE PRESIDENT'S WHITE HOUSE CONFERENCE
on
SCIENCE AND ECONOMICS RESEARCH RELATED TO GLOBAL CHANGE
April 17-18, 1990
Washington, D.C.
White House COnference Agenda Planning Meeting
Saturday, February 24, 1990
9:00 A.M. - 12:00 P.M.
WHC Offices - 1019 19th St., NW 7th Floor
[Coffee/Donuts at 8:30 A.M.]
INTRODUCTIONS (ATTENDEES ATTACHED)
O
BACKROUND & CURRENT STATUS
O
TACTICAL OBJECTIVES
1.
To provide an occasion for the President to demonstrate
America's willingness to play a leadership role in organizing
ongoing international efforts to respond to the potential
risks and opportunities associated with global change.
2.
To provide a setting for the President to present America's
overarching vision of how environmental, economic and other
needs might best be balanced in the future given the emergence
of worldwide concern about rapid change.
3.
To facilitate the development of a strategy for integrating
worldwide scientific and economic research on global change
issues and to establish and share research priorities for
unilateral and multilateral action among the participating
countries.
O
REVIEW STRAWMAN CONFERENCE AGENDA
"Bottom line"
O Expectations for "Rump Session"
1) Agreement on White House Conference Objectives
2) Agreement basic directions for the conference & the
Agenda Strategy.
OFFICIAL L'
THE WHITE HOUSE
ONLY
WASHINGTON, D.C.
Office of the White House Conference
on
Science and Economics Research Relating to Global Change
INFORMATION MEMORANDUM
TO:
Addressees Listed Below
DATE: February 23, 1990
FROM:
Bob Corell
SUBJECT:
WHC Agenda Planing Meeting
Saturday, February 24, 1990
9:00 A.M. - 12:00 P.M.
WHC Offices - 1019 19th St., NW, 7th Floor
[Coffee/Donuts at 8:30 A.M.]
Representative
Phone Number
FAX Number
Agency
WH/OCS
456-2533
456-2397
Andy Card
WH/CA
456-2800
456-2223
Berry McBee
Richard Schmalensee
395-5036
395-6947
CEA
Dave Struhs
395-3742
395-3744
CEQ
Nancy Maynard
456-6202
395-3719
OSTP
Dallas Peck
648-7411
648-5470
CES
Mike Hall
443-8415
770-8742
OMB
Jack Fellows
395-3534
395-4817
DOC/NOAA
377-3436
377-8203
John Knauss
David Durham
586-8504
586-9520
DOE
DOI/USGS
Harlan Watson
343-4181
371-2815
EPA
Richard Morgenstern
382-4034
252-0780
NASA
453-1409
426-0754
Len Fisk
Shelby Tilford
453-1706
755-9234
NSF
Bob Corell
357-9715
357-9629
STATE
Dan Reifsnyder
647-4069
647-5947
447-4164
475-4915
USDA
Bruce Gardner
Facilitator Support Team:
Bill Cline
328-9000
328-5432
John Moore
875-0106
875-0122
Larry Susskind
(617) 868-0200
(508) 485-3523
Bill Robertson
272-8536
504-4615
Jerry Delli-Priscoli
355-2372
355-7171
Tom Davis
?
?
(415) 853-1000
?
Jim Creighton
Paul Grabhorn
580-3721
?
WHC Team
Franmarie Keel
653-2996
653-5414
Bob Corell
357-9715
357-9629
ONLY OFFICIAL USE
THE PRESIDENT'S WHITE HOUSE CONFERENCE
on
OFFICIAL
SCIENCE AND ECONOMICS RESEARCH RELATING TO GLOBAL CHANGE
April 17-18, 1990
Us.
Washington, D. C.
White House Conference Agenda Planning Meeting
Saturday, February 24, 1990
9:00 A.M. - 12:00 P.M.
WHC Offices - 1019 19th St., NW - 7th Floor
[Coffee/Donuts at 8:30 A.M.]
INTRODUCTIONS OF ATTENDEES
BACKGROUND AND CURRENT STATUS
TACTICAL OBJECTIVES
1.
To provide an occasion for the President to demonstrate
America's willingness to play a leadership role in
organizing ongoing international efforts to respond to
the potential risks and opportunities associated with
global change.
2.
To provide a setting for the President to present
America's overarching vision of how environmental,
economic and other needs might best be balanced in the
future given the emergence of worldwide concern about
rapid change.
3.
To facilitate the development of a strategy for
integrating worldwide scientific and economic research
on global change issues and to establish and share
research priorities for unilateral and multilateral
action among the participating countries.
REVIEW STRAWMAN CONFERENCE AGENDA
1. Philosophy and Basic Structure
2. Objectives for Working Groups
EXPECTATIONS FOR "RUMP SESSION"
1. Agreement on White House Conference Objectives
2.
Agreement on basic directions for the Conference and the
Agenda Strategy
OFFICIAL USE
ij
DRAFT
ONLY
Prepared for the "Rump" Session 2/24/90
WORKING BACKGROUND PAPER ON THE PROGRAM
for
THE PRESIDENT'S WHITE HOUSE CONFERENCE
on
SCIENCE AND ECONOMICS RESEARCH RELATING TO GLOBAL CHANGE
April 17-18, 1990
Washington, D.C.
THE CONTEXT FOR A PROGRAM STRATEGY:
There is increasing evidence that the global environment is
changing on previously unknown time and spacial scales. World
leaders are moving aggressively to address the economic and social
implications of these changes, making global environmental issues
central on the agenda of international affairs. Summit meetings,
ministerial conferences, and seminars on the "health of planet
Earth" are all testimony to the fact that world leaders are faced
with unparalleled pressures to develop and implement policies and
responses to the perceived changes.
Central, in virtually every instance, are the uncertainties in:
o
Scientific Knowledge:
Understanding the
controlling global and regional process trends and
patterns and the limited ability of science to
predict, with acceptable accuracy and on the basis
of currently available data, the future behavior of
the Earth system, and
o
Economic Knowledge: Fundamental understanding of
the economic implications of the often projected
global change scenarios, policies, and responses.
These realities, taken in total, place upon the scientific and
economic communities throughout the world, an inescapable
responsibility to expand both basic scientific and economic
understanding through better data, better research, and better
predictive capabilities involving those fundamental processes that
control the natural balance of the total earth system.
U.S. policies addressing global environmental issues have been
evolving rapidly both in response to the changing geopolitical
character of global change issues, particularly those related to
potential climate change, and the increasing recognition of the
uncertainties in the science and the inadequacies of current
economic knowledge.
1
There has been a tendency for world leaders to give policy
considerations greater attention (e.g., calls for framework
Conventions for greenhouse gases) than addressing the need to
substantially increase economic and scientific understanding. This
White House Conference, the first of its kind, is designed to
address this imbalance in the international dialogue by focussing
on science and economic research as it relates to global change.
More particularly, it is designed to provide the fora through which
a strategic and international plan for joint scientific and
economic research can be develop. The U.S. is committed to
facilitating the development and implementation of sound domestic
and international policies related to global change and is
committed to ensuring that such policies be based on sound
scientific and economic foundations. Therefore:
The White House Conference, hosted by
President Bush, is designed as an
important step towards substantially
enhancing and broadening international
understanding of the critical science and
economic research issues, framing a
strategy for implementing a joint
international science and economics
research effort and linking that
knowledge to the policy process.
OBJECTIVES OF THE WHITE HOUSE CONFERENCE
The Conference will be devoted to science and economic issues
relevant to policies on global change, including climate. The
primary objectives of the White House Conference are to:
Improve our understanding of the current state of
international knowledge in scientific and economic
research,
Identify major gaps and uncertainties in both scientific
and economic understanding,
Assess the analytic tools and data that are found to be
essential to improving both national and international
environmental policy, and sensitizing the three
communities involved to the activities and needs of the
others in addressing global change research, and
Develop a joint "strategy Document" in which the
expertise, experience, and data available in the
participating countries can be brought together in a more
integrated and coherent fashion to address global change
2
issues.
THE CHALLENGE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE CONFERENCE
The central issue that must be addressed in developing the
program/agenda for the White House Conference lies in addressing
the "grand challenges" of scientific and economic research in a
milieu of interest that is driven by domestic and international
"policy issues" related to global change. The innovations required
in designing the agenda, must give recognition to these ranges of
interests depicted graphically in Figure I, but focus on the
science and economics research agenda.
THE SCIENCE RESEARCH POLICY MATRIX
Figure 1
MODEL
FORECASTS
KNOWLEDGE
FORECASTS
OF
NATIONAL
BASE
OF GLOBAL
SOCIETAL
POLICY
CHANGES
EFFECTS
Physical Processes
Temperature
Water Resources
Research
Chemical Processes
Rainfall
Food & Fiber
Energy
Biological Processes
Sea Level
Health Effects
Air Quality
Observed Changes
Ozone
Land Characteristics
Water
Paleoclimate
Species
Air Quality
Foreign Relation
Etc.
Etc.
Etc.
Etc.
THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH MATRIX
Figure 2
?
3
AN OUTLINE OF THE STRATEGY DOCUMENT
The Conference has numerous objectives, many focussed on
facilitating understanding, promoting cooperation, and encouraging
a more coordinated approach to the scientific and economic issues
of global change. Moreover, it is planned that the Conference will
develop and produce the first draft of a strategy to implement an
international scientific and economic research program which brings
together the expertise, experience, and data available of each
participating country in a more integrated and coherent fashion.
The strategy should include, inter alia:
Rationale and need for a joint strategy for
implementing an international program of scientific
and economic research on global change issues
Goals, Objectives, and Expectations for such a
joint research program
Identification of central economic and scientific
questions that must be addressed
Framework for structuring the scientific and
economic research program
Linkages to the policy process
International arrangements and framework for the
program
Framework for establishing priorities, mechanisms
for implementation, etc.
Identification of products expected from the
program and the necessary timetables for results
that support the policy process.
It is planned to carefully structure the process so that a draft
document is produced at the Conference, and that plans are
established for "in-country" review of this document by all
participating countries. The "strategy Document" could be used in
other fora, e.g., summit meetings, to facilitate and implement the
needed economic and scientific research programs.
4
SENSITIVE
Planning Meeting (2/24/90) for the President's White House Conference on
Science & Economic Research Relating to Global Change
Agenda
1.) Is the general direction O.K?
2.) Is basic Agenda for conference concept O.K.?
3.) Working group strategy
4.) What is the conference "deliverable"?
5.) Others Vision
- observer lists
- other countries list
Action Items:
Be ready for media questions (Franmarie: Monday 12:00pm)
Country participation recommendations (Bob: Monday 12:00pm)
A recommended observer list (Bob: Tuesday 12:00pm)
Written statement on China participation (Franmarie: Monday 12:00pm)
Identify a Press Liaison person and fax (Franmarie: Monday 12:00pm)
Agenda comments (Bob: Wednesday 12:00pm)
Concerns:
Be careful that some countries may see this as pressuring them
Every country on the list that has issued a policy on global change has been
included except Egypt - was that considered?
Some countries have the ability to impede research - take this into account
Referring to a "Research Strategy" Document makes it sound like a stall
To link the policy process also focus on "obstacles to implementation"
instead of just talking research
Show management by showing a "sign-up" to research program
Be proactive so that it's clear this is not just a "greenhouse effect"
conference
Have a pat answer ready for Does global change = global climate change?
What's the difference between environment & science?
How do you take care of "The Hill"
President has already announced a major international research program -
How to make clear the U.S. program w/o "using" the 19 countries to
"advertise" our program?
Page 2
(2/24/90)
Tactical objective - Development of a strategy document may be viewed as
rushing ahead
- response: If other countries sign up to a research agenda, it implies that
precipitous action not appropriate
Research strategy should also include mitigation
Conference needs to address technology transfer
Need to look at "actions"
"Sustainable Change" - "Change" is a bad word - offends some
- use "Stewardship" instead
Let's get moving with things that we agree on..
How does this Vision fit in to the "Framework Convention"
Reaction: "This is a yawner"
- How does this relate to the Framework Convention?
- Framework Convention will be a limited and evolving document
President could describe a Vision for the year 2020 - Want to articulate a
semi-utopian vision, then action steps to move toward this
What kind of world do we want to have?
- How do we get there from here?
Key Question: Why is POTUS sponsoring a speech conference?
Summary
Discussion/Agenda Themes for the Conference:
How to INTEGRATE science and economic research activities?
How can the structures for research on science and economy be put
together?
To what extent to we need shared vision that will inform the development
of our research agendas?
How to develop a better understanding of research for policy and for
action?
Develop the educative function of the conference?
How to stay at a general level that informs, invokes, and involves
participation.
- How to prepare the delegations for this kind of a forum?
Turn the "Hows" into "whethers" that will lead to clarification of
frameworks for action?
Knowledge for action - knowledge for understanding
Clarify:
1. Be sure that we get across "Global Change", NOT:
- Greenhouse Effect
- Global Climate Change
Page 3
2/24/90
2. Be sure that the linkage between this conference and Framework
Convention is clarified
3. Interaction between research vs. action/policy
Suggestion:
Find some way that proposals can filter up from technical community -
ministerial level may just be responding to political pressures
Think about the work groups as a part of a negotiation process to get
agreement on a research agenda.
Deliverables:
- Research agenda
- Education
Ministers don't like to be educated - work will be in the working groups.
Must come out with more than just a list of research topics
Ministers need to come in with what they are going to negotiate - and be
ready to negotiate
Use IPCC material as feedstock
Is it realistic to develop a strategy document?
Too comples and too vague - totally rethink agenda and time blocks
Discuss integration mechanisms & connect research to policy process
Is there a need for a research strategy?
How do we go about doing it?
Key Point: Get scientists and economists talking to each other
How do we integrate scientific/economic research?
How do we merge research and action?
To what extent do we need to be working colectively?
Page 4
2/24/90
Action Teams (4-7 participants)
1. "The Strategy" & "The Vision"
Jack* }
Harken
Richard
Morgenstern
Corrigan
2. The Agenda
Bob*
David
Bruce
Dallas
Fisk
6. Support Materials Preparation/Documents
Gary
Nancy
FranMarie*
Watson
CEA
State
DOE - Petrinos
Bill Kline
7. Observer/Countries
Francis*
Shelby
Mike
Morgenstern
8. U.S. Delegation
Dave
Harlan
Fisk
Morgenstern
Bob*
Report back to Bob by 12:00pm Friday. Chairs are responsible for calling the
group together & developing report out.
COMMITTEES
President's Address - Conference Context
Jack Fellows, OMB, Chair
Harlan Watson, DOI
Richard Schmalensee, CEA
Dick Morgenstern, EPA
Mark Kerrigan, DOE
Conference Agenda
Bob Corell, NSF, Chair
David Struhs, CEQ
Bruce Gardner, USDA
Dallas Peck, USGS/DOI
L.A. Fisk, NASA
Conference Papers
Franmarie Keel, WH Conference, Chair
Gary Evans, USDA/S&E
Nancy Maynard, OSTP
Harlan Watson, DOI
Bill Cline, Inst. Int'l Economics
State (unnamed)
CEA (unnamed)
DOE (Petrinos?)
Observor List
Francis Li, Dept. of State, Chair
Shelby Tilford, NASA
Mike Hall, NOAA
Dick Morgenstern, EPA
U.S. Delegation
Bob Corell, NSF, Chair
Dave Struhs, CEQ
Harlan Watson, DOI
L.A. Fisk, NASA
Dick Morgenstern, EPA
003
D
LINI ENVIRO DOD +++
CESI
202 504 4615
10:29
02/27/20
TH
2/11/90
WORKING DRAFT OF AN ANNOTATED AGENDA
for the
THE PRESIDENT'S WHITE HOUSE CONFERENCE
on
SCIENCE AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH RELATING TO GLOBAL CHANGE
April 17-18, 1990
Leavey Conference Center at the Georgetown University
Washington, D.C.
MONDAY - APRIL 16, 1990
4:00 pm Registration, Information, and Hosting Desk Opens
Delegations can register for WHC and for their Hotels,
there is only scheduled conference functions, which is
voluntary.
7:00 pm An "open house" reception for our guest. Our guests
(Foriegn Delegates and invited U.S. participants to serve
as hosts) would have exclusive access to the Air and
Space Museum, with a couple tables for light foods and
beverages. Hosted by the Director of the Smithsonian.
TUESDAY - APRIL 17, 1990
7:00 am Breakfast Meeting for WHC Leadership, Working Group
Chairs and Rapporteurs, and Conference Report Editors.
7:30 am Registration, Information, and Hosting Desk Opens
(Coffee, Tea, Pastries, Etc. Available)
PLENARY SESSION I - Chairman, D. Allan Bromley, Perspectives on
the Science and Economics of Global Change
8:30 am Welcome and Opening Remarks - Sec. James A. Baker III
An Outline of the Goals, Objectives, and Expectations
for the White House Conference - D. Allan Bromley
9:00 am Perspectives on Science, Economics, and the Environment,
a review of the status, trends, and issues of global
change, twenty minutes each by:
5 tom
o The Science of Global Change - D. Allan Bromley
o Economic Issues and Global Change - Michael Boskin
5 form
5 somin
o Environmental Perspectives - Michael Deland
10:00 am Science and Economics Issues: An International Agenda
1
for Global Change - President George Bush
10:30 am Break
WORKING GROUPS SESSION I - Setting the stage for strategic Plann ing
11:00 am
Three Focussed Working Groups, each of which will have
a Chair and a rapporteur. The Working Groups will be
held in three separate areas of the Center to address
cross-cutting issues (an outline and guidance materials
will be prepared for each). Each session to begin with
an invited "white paper". Topics and major subject areas
for each "white paper" will be carefully structured to
cut across the three areas of science, economics, and the
Atet
environment. They are intended to set the intellectual
tone for the working group sessions. The President will
meet with each Working Group, for informal discussions,
about 10 minutes each.
12:00 pm
Lunch for all Participants
12:00 pm
Lunch Meeting for Working Group Chairs and Rapporteurs,
and Conference Report Editors.
PLENARY SESSION II - Chairman, Michael Boskin, State of the Art
and the Central Research Questions of Global Change.
1:15 pm Three papers, by outstanding leaders from abroad, on the
essential questions and issues, for about 30 minutes each
with 15 minutes for Q and A.
Priculation Respond June propet atr TosiCate
The Science of Global Change - To be determined
Inly
The Economic Research Issues - To be determined
International Environmental Issues - To be
deter
mined
3:30 pm Break
WORKING GROUPS SESSION II - Developing an Agenda for Joint
Research in Science and Economics
4:00 pm Working Group Chairs lead a discussion centered on the
"white Papers" and a prepared set of questions that
address the central issues and build upon the "Fact
Sheets" submitted by each country.
5:30 pm
Formal Working Sessions Adjourn, Chairs, Rapporteurs
and Editors meet to develop the first set of "feedback
2
materials for the Conference. Materials to be typed and
duplicated overnight and distributed in the A.M.
EVENING - Reception and State Dinner
6:15 pm Shuttle Buses take Delegates to NAS/NAE
6:30 pm Reception Hosted by the the President's of the NAS and
NAE in the Grand Hall of the NAS for Delegations and
other invited guests, 350-400 invitees. Held here to
involve the NAS/NAE and have a larger reception than can
be held at the DOS Diplomatic Reception Suite. U.S.
invitees should include key individuals from the
executive offices of the President, the Congress,
government agencies and offices, leading scientists,
economists, and environmental community leaders, and
business and industry.
8:00 pm Formal Dinner (Black Tie ?) - In the Diplomatic Suite of
the Department of state, Hosted by the Vice President -
Maximun of 250
8:00 pm Opening Remarks by the vice President
9:30 pm After Dinner Address
suggestions: Some Outstanding Figure in Science
or Economics
10:15 pm End of the Day - Shuttle Buses take Delegates to Leavey
Center
Wednesday - APRIL 18, 1990
7:10 am Shuttle Buses Leave for the "Hill" with Delegates
7:30 am Congressional Breakfast Meeting for the senior three
delegates from each country with key Congressional
Leaders, the WHC Leadership, Working Group Chairs,
Rapporteurs, and Conference Report Editors.
8:30 am Shuttle Buses Leave to return the Leavey Center
PLENARY SESSION III -Chairman, Michael Deland, The Role of Science
and Economic Research in International Policy
9:00 am An Address by Bert Bolin, Chairman of the IPCC
(30 minutes with 15 minutes for Q and A)
3
WORKING GROUPS SESSION III - The Central Issues and Strategies to
Developing an Agenda for Joint Research in Science and Economics
9:45 am Working Group Chairs continue to lead a discussion
centered on developing joint plans and addressing a set
of questions that address the central issues and build
upon the questionnaire that each country submitted. Goal
is to "home-in" on an action plan, which when integrated
with the other groups will lead to an international joint
plan for research in science and economics. Coffee Break
set-up for use anytime by the Working Groups, scheduled
when convenient. No fixed times.
12:00 pm Lunch for all Participants, with a special Lunch for
Working Group Chairs and Rapporteurs, and Conference
Report Editors to integrate the reports.
WORKING GROUPS SESSION IV - Final Session to Develop strategy for
an Agenda for Joint Research in Science and Economics
1:30 pm Working Group Chairs continue to lead a discussion
centered on developing joint plans and addressing a set
of questions that address the central issues and build
-
upon the questionnaire that each country submitted. Goal
is to "home-in" on an action plan, which when integrated
with the other groups will lead to an international joint
plan for research in science and economics.
3:00 pm Break
PLENARY SESSION IV - Chairman, William Rielly, Integrating the
Plan (The Concluding Session).
mel
3:30 pm Reports by the Working Group Chairs
Working Group A - 20 minutes
Working Group B - 20 minutes
Working Group C - 20 minutes
4:30 pm A Comprehensive and Integrating View - Someone will be
assigned this task and should prepare it well.
5:00 pm End of White House Conference
5:00 pm Informal reception for all participants who wish to stay,
held at Leavey Center.
4
Things to do and Appointments To Make:
1.) Conference Report Editor is needed, should be very familar
with the topics, might be a team composed of Richard
Schmalensee for Economics, Dan Albritton for Science, and
Richard Morgenstern for the environment.
2.) Probably should appoint a Working Group Coordinator who would
coordinate and work with the Working Group Chairs and
Rapporteurs.
3.) Working Group Chairs:
WG A We must make careful
WG B selections to be assured
WG c that these go well.
4.) Working Group Rapporters:
WG A Same note as above, we
WG B ought to try to get
WG C foreign participation
5.) This agenda does not explicitely provide a visable role for
the environmental community, which probably should be
addressed. Tom Lovejoy might be a good candidate for the
Working Group Coordinator, as he is well known in the
environmental community and is a member of PCAST.
6.) If the PCAST now has a Chair, we might want to involve him/her
in a visable role.
File:AGENDA.211
5
WHITE HOUSE CONFERENCE ON SCIENCE AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH RELATING TO GLOBAL CHANGE
File=SCHED211
DRAFT OF 2/11/90
TUESDAY
WEDNESDAY
Day and Date
MONDAY
APRIL 16, 1990
APRIL 17, 1990
APRIL 18, 1990
Time
REGISTRATION OPEN
CONGRESSIONAL BREAKFAST
BREAKFAST
PLENARY I - OPENING SESSION
PLENARY III - BOLIN ADDRESS
FIRST HALF
SEC. BAKER
OVERVIEW BY CO-CHAIRS
WORKING GROUPS SESSION III
AM
PRESIDENT'S SPEECH
INFORMAL BREAKS
BREAK
BREAK
SECOND HALF
Hn do we
WORKING GROUP SESSIONS I
?
WORKING GROUP SESSION III (CONTINUED)
AM
Pever
3
LUNCH
LUNCH
LUNCH
FIRST HALF
WORKING GROUP SESSION IV
PLENARY II - MAJOR TOPICAL SPEECHES
\
PM
BREAK
BREAK
BREAK
PLENARY SESSION IV- FINAL SESSION
SECOND HALF
REGISTRATION DESK
WORKING GROUP II
WORKING GROUP REPORTS
PM
OPEN
COMPERHENSIVE SUMMARY
RECEPTION AT NAS/NAE
RECEPTION
DINNER
"OPEN HOUSE" RECEPTION
STATE DINNER AT STATE DEPT.
AT
CONFERENCE OVER - NO ACTIVITIES
EVENING
VICE PRESIDENT HOST
AIR AND SPACE MUSEUM
MAJOR AFTER DINNER SPEECH
7:00 9:00 PM
DRAFT No. 1
2/14/90
WORKING DRAFT OF A CONCEPT PAPER
for the
THE PRESIDENT'S WHITE HOUSE CONFERENCE
on
SCIENCE AND ECONOMICS RESEARCH RELATING TO GLOBAL CHANGE
April 17-18, 1990
Washington, D.C.
AN INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT:
There is increasing evidence that the global environment of the
earth is changing on time and spacial scales unknown to humankind.
World leaders are taking uncommon postures and actions to address
the economic and social implications of these changes, making
global environmental issues central on the agenda of international
affairs. Summit meetings, ministerial conferences, and seminars
on the "health of planet Earth" are all testimony to the fact that
world leaders are faced with unparalleled needs to develop and.
implement policies and responses to these changes.
Central, in virtually every instance, is the uncertainty of:
o
Scientific Knowledge: Understanding the controlling
global and regional process trends and patterns and
the limited ability of science to predict, with
acceptable accuracy, the future behavior of the
Earth system, and
o
Economic Knowledge: Fundamental understanding of the
economic implications of the often projected
policies and responses.
These realities, taken in total, place upon the scientific and
economic communities throughout the world, a inescapable
responsibility to expand both basic economic understanding through
research and scientific knowledge and predictive capabilities about
those fundamental processes that control the natural balance of the
total earth system.
PREMISES THAT LEAD TO THE HOSTING OF A WHITE HOUSE CONFERENCE
U.S. policies addressing global environmental issues have been
evolving rapidly both in response to the changing geopolitical
character of global change issues, particularly those related to
potential climate change, and the increasing recognition of the
uncertainities in scientific and the inadequacies of current
economic knowledge.
1
There has been a tendency for world leaders to give the "policy
track" considerably more attention (i.e calls for framework
conventions for greenhouse gases) than addressing the need to
substantially increase economic and scientific understanding. The
White House Conference, the first of its kind, is designed to
address this imbalance in the international dialog by focussing on
science and economic research as it relates to global change. More
particularly, it is designed to provide the fora through which a
strategic and international plan for joint scientific and economic
research can be develop. The U.S. is committed to facilitating the
development and implementation of sound domestic and international
policies related to global change. Therefore:
The White House Conference, hosted by
President Bush, is designed as an
important step towards substantially
enhancing and broadening international
understanding of the critical science and
economic research issues, and linking
that knowledge to the policy process.
OBJECTIVES OF THE WHITE HOUSE CONFERENCE
The Conference will be devoted to science and economic issues
relevant to policies on global change, including climate. The
primary objectives of the White House Conference are to:
Improve our understanding of the state of knowledge in
scientific and economic research,
Identify major gaps and uncertainties,
Assess the analytic tools and data required essential to
improving both national and international environmental
policy, and
Develop a joint "strategy Document" in which the
expertise, experience, and data available in the
participating countries can be brought together in a more
integrated and coherent fashion.
ISSUES TO ADDRESS
The Conference will seek to address a series of issues, through the
data obtained from participating countries prior to the meeting,
from the formal presentations, throught discussion, and through the
integrating process of the Working Groups, these include:
Science. The scientists will focus on the largest gaps and
uncertainties in the current understanding of global warming and
2
greenhouse phenomena and on such topics as:
o
The range of predicted temperature changes under the current
major world climate models, the uncertainties in these predictions,
and the primary sources of these uncertainties. This will yield
greater awareness of these uncertainties among the participant
economists and environmentalists.
o
The relative sensitivity of the climate models to their input
parameters and the most critical new experimental measurements
required to address existing gaps and uncertainties.
o
The expected global impacts from different global warming
scenarios in such areas as agricultural and oceanic productivity,
sea level change, vegetation patterns and migration, changes in
storm patterns and severity, and occurrence of droughts.
o The availability and inter-comparability of national data bases
pertinent to environmental research.
O Improvement of current climate and weather models to begin to
address regional changes on a larger time horizon than is currently
possible.
O
The possibility of developing an integrated, coherent
international plan of research to build upon the expertise,
experience, and relevant data available in the participant
countries. This plan could form a structure within which the
contributions of all interested nations could be used with greatest
effectiveness and form the basis for coordinated resource
allocation and implementation.
o
The development of greater awareness on the part of
participating scientists of the economic aspects of global change
and the relative economic value of improved understanding and
predictive capability in different areas.
Economics. The participation of economists should enhance four
useful information flows:
o
Best-practice methods of estimating the costs of action,
including adaptation and mitigation costs, and the methods and
costs of transferring or aiding in the development of technology.
Discussions of this topic should serve to advance the state of the
art, to lead to a greater standardization of methods, and to
enhance awareness of robust results.
O Greater familiarity on the part of economists with the actual
state of scientific knowledge, increasing their ability to render
it more faithfully in their modeling.
Greater awareness on the part of environmentalists of the
3
benefits to both the economy and the environment of adopting
flexible, market-based response strategies.
o Greater interaction among economists with scientists working in
areas where resolution of scientific uncertainties will have the
greatest impact on economic modelling and costs.
Environment. With a great deal of work on environmental effects,
particularly in the area of global change, already underway, the
primary objective with respect to the environmental officials at
the conference will be to engage them in a dialogue on scientific
and economic issues, thus providing them with greater familiarity
with and sensitivity to those factors as they consider
environmental policies and response options.
THE STRATEGY FOR SELECTING CONFERENCE PARTICIPANTS
The Conference is designed to bring together the "ministerial"
level leaders of science, economics, and the environment from a
representative group of countries to address science and economic
issues relevant to policy on global change, including climate. The
strategy is to foster a workshop or seminar approach, which
stimulates discussion, encourages dialog that enhances
understanding, and facilitates the drafting of a strategy document
that outlines a joint scientific and economic research program.
Hence, the Conference design must facilitate these objective, and
to do so the number of participants needs to be limited.
Therefore, a representative group of countries will be invited to
participate, the selection of which is based on the simple criteria
the the meeting should include countries or representatives of
country interest that have substantial populations, large land
masses, industrialized economies or heavy future energy needs,
substantial research infrastructures, or have provided
international leadership on issues related to climate and global
change. A representative group of countries has been selected,
including:
1. Australia
2. Brazil
3. Canada
4. China
5. Federal Republic of Germany
6. France
7. India Indomes
8. Italy
9. Japan
10. Mexico
11. Netherlands
12. Nigeria
13. Norway Paland
14. Soviet Union
15. United Kingdom
4
16. United States
17. Zaire
18. European Comm.
19. OECD
It is expected that each country will send the senior "minister"
to represent their agencies of science, economics, and the
environment, along with no more than two staff associates per
"minister", one of whom should be an outstanding research leader.
It is expected that the delegations will have one other "at-large"
member. Thus, the total delegation size should not exceed ten per
country.
THE STRUCTURE OF THE AGENDA FOR THE CONFERENCE
The Conference will be held in Washington, D.C., April 17-18, 1990
at the
.
The outline
for the agenda is (a more complete and annotated agenda is
appended) :
MONDAY APRIL 16, 1990
4:00 pm Registration, Information, and Hosting Desk opens.
7:00 pm An "open house" reception at the Air and Space Museum.
TUESDAY - APRIL 17, 1990
PLENARY SESSION I: Perspectives on the Science and Economics
8:30 am Welcome and Opening Remarks - Sec. James A. Baker III
Conference Co-Chairmen
9:00 am Perspectives on Science, Economics, and the Environment,
an overview on:
Environmental Perspectives - Michael Deland
Economic Issues and Global Change - Michael Boskin
The Science of Global Change - D. Allan Bromley
10:00 am President George Bush Propose Major Policy Address
10:30 am Break
WORKING GROUPS SESSION I: Setting the Stage for Strategic Planning
11:00 am Three Working Groups to address cross-cutting issues
( an outline and guidance materials will developed by a
special DPC task group) and the Working Groups will be
carefully structured to cut across the three areas of
5
science, economics, and the environment. This seesion
will be designed to optimize the informal interactions
with the President, who will meet with each Working Group
for informal discussions for about 20 minutes each.
12:00 pm Lunch
PLENARY SESSION II: State of the Art and the Central Research
Questions of Global Change.
1:15 pm Three papers, by outstanding leaders, some from abroad,
on the essential questions and issues.
o
The Science of Global Change - To be determined
o
The Economic Research Issues To be determined
o
International Environmental Issues - To be
determined
3:30 pm Break
WORKING GROUPS SESSION II: Developing an Agenda for Joint Research
in Science and Economics
4:00 pm Working Group Chairs lead a discussion centered on the
prepared "White Papers" and questions that address the
central issues, some of which will be derived from the
"Fact Sheets" submitted by each country.
5:30 pm Session Adjourns
EVENING - Reception and State Dinner
6:30 pm Reception Hosted by the President's of the NAS and NAE
in the Grand Hall of the NAS.
8:00 pm Formal Dinner - In the Diplomatic Suite of the Department
of State, Hosted by the Vice President
8:00 pm Opening Remarks by the Vice President
9:30 pm After Dinner Address
Suggestion: An Outstanding figure in economics who can integrate
the science and economic issues with the policy
framework
10:15 pm End of the Day Center
Wednesday - APRIL 18, 1990
6
7:30 am Congressional Breakfast Meeting for the senior three
delegates from each country with key Congressional
Leaders
PLENARY SESSION III: The Role of Science and Economic Research in
International Policy
9:00 am An Address by Bert Bolin, Chairman of the IPCC
WORKING GROUPS SESSION III: The Central Issues and Strategies to
Developing an Agenda for Joint Research in Science and Economics
9:45 am Working Groups continue discussions centered on
developing joint plans and addressing the central issues.
12:00 pm Lunch - Short Talk on Environmental Issues, Possibly by
an outstanding speaker for environmental NGO
WORKING GROUPS SESSION IV Final Session to Develop Strategy for
an Agenda for Joint Research in Science and Economics
1:30 pm Working Group continue discussions centered on developing
joint plan. The goal is t draft an action plan, which
when integrated with the other groups will lead to an
international joint plan for research in science and
economics.
3:00 pm Break
PLENARY SESSION IV: Integrating the Plan (The Concluding Session).
3:30 pm Reports by the Working Group Chairs
Working Group A - 20 minutes
Working Group B - - 20 minutes
Working Group c - - 20 minutes
4:30 pm A Comprehensive and Integrating View Someone will be
assigned this task and should prepare it well.
5:00 pm End of White House Conference
5:00 pm Informal reception
CONFERENCE OUTCOME:
The Conference has numerous objectives, many foccused on
facilitating understanding, promoting cooperation, and encouraging
a more coordinated approach to the issues of global change.
However, it is planned that the Conference will develop and produce
the first draft of a strategy to implement an international
7
scientific and economic research program which joins the expertise,
experience, and data available of each participating countries in
a more integrated and coherent fashion. The strategy should
include, inter alia:
Rationale for implementing an international program
of scientific and economic research
Goals, Objectives, and Expectations for a joint
research program
Identification of central economic and scientific
questions that need to be addressed
Framework for structuring the scientific and
economic research program
Linkages to the policy process
International arrangements and framework for the
program
Framework for establishing priorities, mechanisms
for implementation, etc.
Identification of products for the program and the
necessary time tables for results that support the
policy process.
It is planned to carefully structure the process so that a draft
document is produced at the Conference, and that plans are
established for is "in-country" review by all participating
countries. The "strategy Document" could be used by other fora,
e.g., summit meetings, to facilitate and implement the needed
economic and scientific research programs.
8
CONFERENCE LEADERSHIP
Host and Conference Convenor: President George Bush
Conference Oversight Body:
Domestic Policy Council Working Group on Global Change
Conference Co-Chairmen, all of the President's Senior Staff:
Michael J. Boskin, Chairman of the Council of Economic
Advisors
D. Allan Bromley, President's Science Advisor and Director of
the Office of Science and Technology Policy
Michael R. Deland, Chairman of the Council on Environmental
Quality meeting.
Conference Office:
Robert W. Corell, Title ? comfune Dr
Franmarie Keel, Title ?
Nancy Maynard, Liaison
Corfor Comment FILE:
CONCEPT.214
9
DRAFT OF 2/11/90
WHITE HOUSE CONFERENCE ON SCIENCE AND ECONOMIC RESEARCHNG TO GLOBAL CHANGE File=SCHED211
Day and Date
MONDAY
TUESDAY
WEDNESDAY
Time
APRIL 16, 1990
APRIL 17, 1990
APRIL 18, 1990
BREAKFAST
REGISTRATION OPEN
CONGRESSIONAL BREAKFAST
PLENARY I - OPENING SESSION
FIRST HALF
SEC. BAKER
PLENARY III - BOLIN ADDRESS
AM
OVERVIEW BY CO-CHAIRS
WORKING GROUPS SESSION III
PRESIDENT'S SPEECH
BREAK
BREAK
INFORMAL BREAKS
SECOND HALF
WORKING GROUP SESSIONS I
WORKING GROUP SESSION III
AM
(Continued)
LUNCH
LUNCH
LUNCH
PLENARY II
FIRST HALF
Major Topical Speeches
WORKING GROUP SESSION IV
PM
BREAK
BREAK
BREAK
SECOND HALF
PLENARY SESSION IV - FINAL SESSION
REGISTRATION DESK
WORKING GROUP II
WORKING GROUP REPORTS
PM
OPEN
COMPERHENSIVE SUMMARY
DINNER
RECEPTION AT NAS/NAE
RECEPTION
"OPEN HOUSE" RECEPTION
STATE DINNER AT STATE DEPT.
EVENING
AT
VICE PRESIDENT HOST
CONFERENCE OVER - NO ACTIVITIES
AIR AND SPACE MUSEUM
MAJOR AFTER DINNER SPEECH
7:00 9:00 PM
2/14/90
WORKING DRAFT OF AN ANNOTATED AGENDA
for the
THE PRESIDENT'S WHITE HOUSE CONFERENCE
on
SCIENCE AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH RELATING TO GLOBAL CHANGE
April 17-18, 1990
Washington, D.C.
MONDAY APRIL 16, 1990
4:00 pm Registration, Information, and Hosting Desk Opens
Delegations can register for WHC and for their Hotels,
there is only scheduled conference functions, which is
voluntary.
7:00 pm An "open house" reception for our guest. Our guests
(Foreign Delegates and invited U.S. participants to serve
as hosts) would have exclusive access to the Air and
Space Museum, with a couple tables for light foods and
beverages. Hosted by the Director of the Smithsonian.
TUESDAY APRIL 17, 1990
7:00 am Breakfast Meeting for WHC Leadership, Working Group
Chairs and Rapporteurs, and Conference Report Editors.
7:30 am Registration, Information, and Hosting Desk Opens
(Coffee, Tea, Pastries, Etc. Available)
PLENARY SESSION I - Chairman, D. Allan Bromley, Perspectives on
the Science and Economics of Global Change
8:30 am Welcome and Opening Remarks - Sec. James A. Baker III
An Outline of the Goals, Objectives, and Expectations
for the White House Conference - D. Allan Bromley or ?
9:00 am Perspectives on Science, Economics, and the Environment,
a review of the status, trends, and issues of global
change, twenty minutes each by (maybe switch order):
o The Science of Global Change - D. Allan Bromley
o Economic Issues and Global Change - Michael Boskin
o Environmental Perspectives - Michael Deland
10:00 am Science and Economics Issues: An International Agenda
for Global Change President George Bush
1
10:30 am Break
WORKING GROUP SESSION I - Setting the Stage for Strategic Planning
11:00 am Three Focussed Working Groups, each of which will have
a Chair and a rapporteur. The Working Groups will be
held in three separate areas of the Center to address
cross-cutting issues (an outline and guidance materials
will be prepared for each). Each session to begin with
an invited "white paper". Topics and major subject areas
for each "white paper" will be carefully structured to
cut across the three areas of science, economics, and the
environment. They are intended to set the intellectual
tone for the working group sessions. The President will
meet with each Working Group, for informal discussions,
about 10 minutes each.
12:00 pm
Lunch for all Participants
12:00 pm Lunch Meeting for Working Group Chairs and Rapporteurs,
and Conference Report Editors.
PLENARY SESSION II - Chairman, Michael Boskin, State of the Art
and the Central Research Questions of Global Change.
1:15 pm Three papers, by outstanding leaders from abroad, on the
essential questions and issues, for about 30 minutes each
with 15 minutes for Q and A.
o The Science of Global Change - To be determined
The Economic Research Issues - To be determined
o
International Environmental Issues - To be
determined
3:30 pm Break
WORKING GROUPS SESSION II - Developing an Agenda for Joint
Research in Science and Economics
4:00 pm Working Group Chairs lead a discussion centered on the
"White Papers" and a prepared set of questions that
address the central issues and build upon the "Fact
Sheets" submitted by each country.
5:30 pm Formal Working Sessions Adjourn, Chairs, Rapporteurs,
and Editors meet to develop the first set of "feedback"
materials for the Conference. Materials to be typed and
duplicated overnight and distributed in the A.M.
2
EVENING - Reception and State Dinner
6:15 pm Shuttle Buses take Delegates to NAS/NAE
6:30 pm Reception Hosted by the President's of the NAS and NAE
in the Grand Hall of the NAS for Delegations and other
invited guests, 350-400 invitees. Held here to involve
the NAS/NAE and have a larger reception than can be held
at the DOS Diplomatic Reception Suite. U.S. invitees
should include key individuals from the executive offices
of the President, the Congress, government agencies and
offices, leading scientists, economists, and
environmental community leaders, and business and
industry.
8:00 pm Formal Dinner (Black Tie ?) - In the Diplomatic Suite of
the Department of State, Hosted by the Vice President -
Maximun of 250
8:00 pm Opening Remarks by the Vice President
9:30 pm After Dinner Address
Suggestions: Some Outstanding Figure in Science
or Economics
10:15 pm End of the Day Shuttle Buses take Delegates to Leavey
Center
Wednesday - APRIL 18, 1990
7:10 am Shuttle Buses Leave for the "Hill" with Delegates
7:30 am Congressional Breakfast Meeting for the senior three
delegates from each country with key Congressional
Leaders, the WHC Leadership, Working Group Chairs,
Rapporteurs, and Conference Report Editors.
8:30 am Shuttle Buses Leave to return the Leavey Center
PLENARY SESSION III -Chairman, Michael Deland, The Role of Science
and Economic Research in International Policy
9:00 am An Address by Bert Bolin, Chairman of the IPCC
(30 minutes with 15 minutes for Q and A)
3
WORKING GROUPS SESSION III - The Central Issues and Strategies to
Developing an Agenda for Joint Research in Science and Economics
9:45 am Working Group Chairs continue to lead a discussion
centered on developing joint plans and addressing a set
of questions that address the central issues and build
upon the questionnaire that each country submitted. Goal
is to "home-in" on an action plan, which when integrated
with the other groups will lead to an international joint
plan for research in science and economics. Coffee Break
set-up for use anytime by the Working Groups, scheduled
when convenient. No fixed times.
12:00 pm Lunch for all Participants, maybe use this Luncheon to
enable the environmental community to talk with the
Conference, either with a speech or a panel. Also a
special Lunch for Working Group Chairs and Rapporteurs,
and Conference Report Editors to integrate the reports.
WORKING GROUPS SESSION IV Final Session to Develop Strategy for
an Agenda for Joint Research in Science and Economics
1:30 pm Working Group Chairs continue to lead a discussion
centered on developing joint plans and addressing a set
of questions that address the central issues and build
upon the questionnaire that each country submitted. Goal
is to "home-in" on an action plan, which when integrated
with the other groups will lead to an international joint
plan for research in science and economics.
3:00 pm Break
PLENARY SESSION IV Chairman, William Rielly, Integrating the
Plan (The Concluding Session).
3:30 pm Reports by the Working Group Chairs and Rapporteurs
Working Group A - 20 minutes
Working Group B - 20 minutes
Working Group c - 20 minutes
4:30 pm A Comprehensive and Integrating View - Someone will be
assigned this task and should prepare it well.
5:00 pm End of White House Conference
5:00 pm Informal reception for all participants who wish to stay,
held at Leavey Center.
4
Things to do and Appointments To Make:
1.) Conference Report Editor is needed, should be very familiar
with the topics, might be a team composed of Richard
Schmalensee for Economics, Dan Albritton for Science, and
Richard Morgenstern for the environment.
2.) Probably should appoint a Working Group Coordinator who would
coordinate and work with the Working Group Chairs and
Rapporteurs.
3.) Working Group Chairs:
WG A We must make careful
WG B selections to be assured
WG C that these go well.
4.) Working Group Rapporteurs:
WG A Same note as above, we
WG B ought to try to get
WG C foreign participation
5.) This agenda does not explicitly provide a visible role for
the environmental community, which probably should be
addressed. Tom Lovejoy might be a good candidate for the
Working Group Coordinator, as he is well known in the
environmental community and is a member of PCAST.
6.) If the PCAST now has a Chair, we might want to involve him/her
in a visible role.
File:AGENDA.214
5
OFFICIAL USE
DRAFT
ONLY
Prepared for the "Rump" Session 2/24/90
WORKING BACKGROUND PAPER ON THE PROGRAM
for
THE PRESIDENT'S WHITE HOUSE CONFERENCE
on
SCIENCE AND ECONOMICS RESEARCH RELATED TO GLOBAL CHANGE
April 17-18, 1990
Washington, D.C.
THE CONTEXT FOR A PROGRAM STRATEGY:
There is increasing evidence that the global environment is
changing on previously unknown time and spacial scales. World
leaders are moving aggressively to address the economic and social
implications of these changes, making global environmental issues
central on the agenda of international affairs. Summit meetings,
ministerial conferences, and seminars on the "health of planet
Earth" are all testimony to the fact that world leaders are faced
with unparalleled pressures to develop and implement policies and
responses to the perceived changes.
Central, in virtually every instance, are the uncertainties in:
o
Scientific Knowledge:
Understanding the
controlling global and regional process trends and
patterns and the limited ability of science to
predict, with acceptable accuracy and on the basis
of currently available data, the future behavior of
the Earth system, and
Economic Knowledge: Fundamental understanding of
the economic implications of the often projected
global change scenarios, policies, and responses.
These realities, taken in total, place upon the scientific and
economic communities throughout the world, an inescapable
responsibility to expand both basic scientific and economic
understanding through better data, better research, and better
predictive capabilities involving those fundamental processes that
control the natural balance of the total earth system.
U.S. policies addressing global environmental issues have been
evolving rapidly both in response to the changing geopolitical
character of global change issues, particularly those related to
potential climate change, and the increasing recognition of the
uncertainties in the science and the inadequacies of current
economic knowledge.
1
There has been a tendency for world leaders to give policy
considerations greater attention (e.g., calls for framework
Conventions for greenhouse gases) than addressing the need to
substantially increase economic and scientific understanding. This
White House Conference, the first of its kind, is designed to
address this imbalance in the international dialogue by focussing
on science and economic research as it relates to global change.
More particularly, it is designed to provide the fora through which
a strategic and international plan for joint scientific and
economic research can be develop. The U.S. is committed to
facilitating the development and implementation of sound domestic
and international policies related to global change and is
committed to ensuring that such policies be based on sound
scientific and economic foundations. Therefore:
The White House Conference, hosted by
President Bush, is designed as an
important step towards substantially
enhancing and broadening international
understanding of the critical science and
economic research issues, framing a
strategy for implementing a joint
international science and economics
research effort and linking that
knowledge to the policy process.
OBJECTIVES OF THE WHITE HOUSE CONFERENCE
The Conference will be devoted to science and economic issues
relevant to policies on global change, including climate. The
primary objectives of the White House Conference are to:
Improve our understanding of the current state of
international knowledge in scientific and economic
research,
Identify major gaps and uncertainties in both scientific
and economic understanding,
Assess the analytic tools and data that are found to be
essential to improving both national and international
environmental policy, and sensitizing the three
communities involved to the activities and needs of the
others in addressing global change research, and
Develop a joint "strategy Document" in which the
expertise, experience, and data available in the
participating countries can be brought together in a more
integrated and coherent fashion to address global change
2
issues.
THE CHALLENGE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE CONFERENCE
The central issue that must be addressed in developing the
program/agenda for the White House Conference lies in addressing
the "grand challenges" of scientific and economic research in a
milieu of interest that is driven by domestic and international
"policy issues" related to global change. The innovations required
in designing the agenda, must give recognition to these ranges of
interests depicted graphically in Figure I, but focus on the
science and economics research agenda.
THE SCIENCE/ECONOMICS RESEARCH AND POLICY MATRIX
Figure I
MODEL
FORECASTS
KNOWLEDGE
FORECASTS
OF
NATIONAL
BASE
OF GLOBAL
SOCIETAL
POLICY
CHANGES
EFFECTS
Physical Processes
Temperature
Water Resources
Research
Chemical Processes
Rainfall
Food & Fiber
Energy
Biological Processes
Sea Level
Health Effects
Air Quality
Observed Changes
Ozone
Land Characteristics
Water
Paleoclimate
Species
Air Quality
Foreign Relation
Etc.
Etc.
Etc.
Etc.
3
SCIENCE AND ECONOMIC QUESTIONS THAT NEED TO UNDERPIN THE AGENDA
The Conference will address and stimulate linkages between the
central questions in the science and economics of global change,
through the information obtained from participating countries, from
the formal presentations at the Conference, through discussions,
and through the integrating process of the Working Groups. These
include:
SCIENCE QUESTIONS and ISSUE TO BE CONSIDERED:
O Basic scientific questions, of high priority, that must be
addressed in the a joint research program:
1.) What is the role of clouds in the Earth's radiation and
heat budgets ?
2.) How do the oceans interact with the atmosphere in the
storage, transport, and uptake of heat ?
3.) How will changes in climate affect temperature,
precipitation, and soil moisture patterns, and the
general distribution of water and ice on the land
surface ?
4.) How can the reliability of global- and regional-scale
climate predictions be improved ?
5.) What is the relative importance of the oceans and
terrestrial biosphere as sinks for fossil fuel carbon
dioxide, and how do they change with time ?
6.) What are the major sources responsible for the current
increases in atmospheric methane and nitrous oxide ?
7.) What are the implications for stratospheric ozone,
globally and in polar regions, of increased
concentrations of chlorine and bromine ?
8.) What ecological systems are most sensitive to global
change, and how can natural change in ecological systems
be distinguished from change caused by other factors ?
9.) What are the likely rates of change in ecological systems
due to global change, and will natural and managed
systems be able to adapt ?
10.) How do ecological systems themselves contribute to
processes of global change ?
11.) What are the natural ranges and rates of change in the
climate and environmental systems ?
4
12.) How rapidly have ecosystems adapted to past abrupt
transitions in climate ?
13.) Do past warm intervals in Earth history provide
appropriate scenarios to test model predictions of future
global warming ?
14.) What kinds of empirical data are needed to measure and
understand human interactions in global change ?
15.) How and why do human beings and human systems influence
physical and biological systems ?
16.) How do different coastal regions respond geologically and
ecologically to higher sea level, and how can
contributions from changes in climate ( e.g., glacier
melting and ocean warming) be differentiated from those
due to tectonic processes ?
16.) What are the magnitude, geographical location, and
frequency of volcanic eruptions and their effect on
climate ?
17.) How do permafrost regions of the northern hemisphere
respond to climate warming ?
18.) What aspects of solar variability are influencing the
stratospheric ozone layer ?
19.) What impacts do other inputs, e.g., particles, have on
the upper atmosphere and how are they coupled to other
atmospheric regions ?
20.) How does the sun's output vary and what is the impact on
terrestrial climate ?
What is the range of predicted temperature changes under the
current major world climate models, the uncertainties in these
predictions, and the primary sources of these uncertainties ?
What is the relative sensitivity of the climate models to
their input parameters and the most critical new experimental
measurements required to address existing gaps and
uncertainties ?
What is the expected global impacts from different global
warming scenarios in such areas as agricultural and oceanic
productivity, sea level change, vegetation patterns and
migration, changes in storm patterns and severity, and
5
occurrence of droughts ?.
What is the availability and inter-comparability of national
data bases pertinent to global change and environmental
research ?
What are the prospects for improvements in the current
climate and weather models so that it is possible to address
both global and regional changes on a larger time horizon than
is currently possible ?
How can the data handling and access capabilities be best
organized and strengthened ?
How can the various governments work together to build the
data sets needed to facilitate early results for the research
programs?
What is the possibility of and strategic approach to
developing an integrated, coherent international strategy for
an implementation plan for both economic and scientific
research that builds upon the expertise, experience, and
relevant data available in the participant countries ? Is it
possible to develop such a plan which could form a structure
within which the contributions of all interested nations could
be used with greatest effectiveness and form the basis for
coordinated resource allocation and implementation ?
What are the prospects of developing a greater awareness on
the part of participating scientists of the economic aspects
of global change and the relative economic value of improved
understanding and predictive capability in different areas.
ECONOMICS QUESTIONS and ISSUE TO BE CONSIDERED:
The participation of economists will make possible a joint focus on
such areas as:
Best-practice methods of estimating the costs of action,
including adaptation and mitigation costs, and the methods and
costs of transferring or aiding in the development of
technology. Discussions of this topic should serve to advance
the state of the art, to lead to a greater standardization of
methods, and to enhance awareness of robust results.
Greater familiarity on the part of economists with the actual
state of scientific knowledge, increasing their ability to
render it more faithfully in their modeling.
Greater awareness on the part of environmentalists of the
benefits to both the economy and the environment of adopting
flexible, market-based response strategies.
6
Greater interaction among economists with scientists working
in areas where resolution of scientific uncertainties will
have the greatest impact on economic modelling and costs.
A series of questions and topics (These have not been edited, but
are included here as they were received by Richard Schmalensee)
might be addressed, such as:
I would suggest that we provide a broad outline of relevant
topics in both science and economics, that we ask for only
major projects, and that we ask for short descriptions and for
the name and address of a contact person. On the economics
side, the outline might be as follows:
1. Forecasts of future greenhouse gas emissions.
2. Forecasts of future relevant technologies.
3. Studies of methods or costs of adapting to warming.
4. Studies of methods or costs of reducing greenhouse gas
emissions.
2. This might be phrased as "What are the scientific and economic
questions that it is most important to answer in order to
develop domestic and international policies?"
3. This seems to be exactly the same as #2...
4. This is a fairly complete list; what follows is an attempt to
put some structure on it.
What is your nation's current budget for climate-related
scientific and economic research (public and private
sectors, if possible)? How does it break down according
to the outline (furnished in item #1, above) ?
O
In what aspects of climate-related economic and
scientific research is your nation particularly strong?
What aspects would you particularly like to discuss at
the conference?
o
What are your government's estimates of your nation's
current and future (through 2010 or 2030) net emissions
of the main greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, CFCs and
related compounds, methane, and nitrous oxide.
-- How do these emissions break down among major
sources? (use the [EPA] breakdowns in the task
force report?)
-- What pattern of fuel use is assumed in the carbon
7
dioxide projections?
-- How accurately are current net emissions of these
gases measured?
-- What are the key uncertainties attached to your
estimates of future emissions, and how important
are they?
-- What research is ongoing to reduce these
uncertainties and to improve measurement accuracy?
o
If warming occurs, what are the major economic costs your
country expects to incur as a consequence?
-- What studies support these estimates?
-- What adaptation measures are now under active
consideration?
o
If your nation were required to make significant
reductions in future net greenhouse emissions, how would
you propose to accomplish this?
-- What studies support your choice of mitigation
strategies?
-
If you have decided not to use incentive-based
approaches (charges and/or marketable
permits), why not?
-
If you have not considered abatement of gases
other than carbon dioxide, why not?
-- How would you anticipate altering (directly or
indirectly) your nation's use of fossil fuels to
reduce carbon dioxide emissions?
-
What role would new technologies play in this
process?
-
What role would nuclear power play?
-- What cost estimates have you produced for various
levels of mitigation?
-
How do these costs compare with those imposed
on your nation by the oil shocks of the 1970s?
-- What actions, if any, do you plan to take in the
near future to limit net greenhouse gas emissions?
8
-
What reductions do you expect them to produce,
when, and at what cost?
What mechanism is your government employing to make
decisions regarding possible future climate change?
ENVIRONMENT:
With much work on environmental effects, particularly in the area
of global change, already underway, the primary objective with
respect to the environmental officials at the conference will be to
engage them in a dialogue on scientific and economic issues, thus
providing them with greater familiarity with and sensitivity to
those factors as they consider environmental policies and response
options.
THIS SECTION SHOULD EITHER BE STRENGTHENED OR REMOVED !!!
AN OUTLINE OF THE STRATEGY DOCUMENT
The Conference has numerous objectives, many focussed on
facilitating understanding, promoting cooperation, and encouraging
a more coordinated approach to the scientific and economic issues
of global change. Moreover, it is planned that the Conference will
develop and produce the first draft of a strategy to implement an
international scientific and economic research program which brings
together the expertise, experience, and data available of each
participating country in a more integrated and coherent fashion.
The strategy should include, inter alia:
Rationale and need for a joint strategy for
implementing an international program of scientific
and economic research on global change issues
Goals, Objectives, and Expectations for such a
joint research program
Identification of central economic and scientific
questions that must be addressed
Framework for structuring the scientific and
economic research program
Linkages to the policy process
International arrangements and framework for the
program
Framework for establishing priorities, mechanisms
for implementation, etc.
9
o Identification of products expected from the
program and the necessary timetables for results
that support the policy process.
It is planned to carefully structure the process so that a draft
document is produced at the Conference, and that plans are
established for "in-country" review of this document by all
participating countries. The "strategy Document" could be used in
other fora, e.g., summit meetings, to facilitate and implement the
needed economic and scientific research programs.
10
FEB- 8-90 THU 15:54
P.02
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14:36
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DRAFT OF A MEMO TO SEND TO THE DPC WORKING GROUP ON GLOBAL CHANGE
February 7, 1990
MEMORANDUM
TO:
MEMBERS OF THE DPC WORKING GROUP ON GLOBAL CHANGE
FROM:
D. Allan Bromley
SUBJECT: AN UPDATE ON PLANS FOR THE APRIL 1990 WHITE HOUSE
CONFERENCE ON SCIENCE AND ECONOMICS RESEARCH RELATING TO
GLOBAL CHANGE
INFORMATION MEMORADUM: NO ACTION REQUESTED
The DPC Working Group on Global Change, at its meeting on Tuesday,
January 30, 1990 made several decisions with regard to the
President's meeting on Science and Economics Research Relating to
Global Change.
1. It was agreed that the meeting will be held on Wednesday
and Thursday, April 17-18, 1990 (subsequent discussions
required that these dates be changed from April 18-19 in
order to use the new Georgetown Leavey Conference Center
and Guest House, where the IPCC meetings are currently
being held) here in Washington D.C.
2. It was agreed that the criteria for the Invitations would
be those countries that "because of their land masses,
large populations or heavy future energy needs, will be
compelled to deal with environmental problems having a
global magnitude and impact", and those countries that
have the scientific and technology capabilities to
address the substantive questions of global change. The
list of invitee countries was endorsed end is:
The G-7 nations, Australia, Brazil, China,
India, Mexico, Netherlands, Nigeria, Norway,
the Soviet Union, Zaire, the European
Community, and the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (ORCD).
We have, for a whole series of good reasons, added the
Netherlands, Norway, and Zaire to the earlier list.
3. It was decided that the President's invitation to the
Heads of State of those nations should sent out ASAP.
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4.
It was decided that the DCP Working Group would meet in
two to three weeks to review progress, including matters
such as the agenda for the meeting, schedule of "things-
to-do" during the next two and one half months, and
logistics.
To facilitate the next DPC Working Group meeting on the Conference,
we will prepare a "Concept Paper" on the Conference which details:
1.
Concepts and Expectations for the Meeting:
The rationale and purposes of hosting the meeting,
i.e. Why is the President hosting this meeting and
what do we expect to accomplish by having the
meeting?
What is the proposed agenda and schedule of events
for the meeting, and what is the rationale behind
the elements included in the agenda?
What are the expected "outcomes" and "products" from
the meeting?
2.
meeting. An initial outline of arrangements and logistics for the
3.
A schedule for the decisions, arrangements, logistics,
charts. etc. for the meeting, probably through Gantt and PERT
4.
An outline of the budget and financial considerations for
the meeting.
5.
Specific action items on which the DPC Working Group
aggreements and endorsements are requested.
FAX at conference, please contact Bob Corell by phone at 357-9715, by
the If there are questions, comments, needs for information concerning
357-9629, or through the OMNET Telemail System at .CORELL.
CC: Gov. John Sununu
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INDEX
MEDIA/PUBLIC OUTREACH
- Media Plan
TAB 1
- Press Release
TAB 2
- Fact Sheet
TAB 3
MEDIA RELATIONS STRATEGY
It is critical to the substantive, international and political
success of the "Environmental Summit" that the Administration
"frame" the conference in terms with which the Administration is
comfortable. It is equally important that the Administration
identify what it wants as a result of the conference - in
advance 1 and establish the framework which will lead to those
results. Within that framework, it is essential that a media
relations program be developed to achieve the pre-ordained
results and international acceptance of those results as
worthwhile and positive.
TACTICS
Several elements of the media relations program must be
determined immediately. Those elements are:
1.
What level of involvement will the President have in the
conference?
2.
Who are the spokespersons for the administration in advance
of the conference - and during the conference?
3.
What will their availability be?
4.
What will they say and to whom?
5.
What involvement will the White House have in "clearing"
statements, media activities, etc. Who is the point person?
Media Relations
Page Two
DRAFT PLAN
Within the constraints outlined above, we have drafted a rough
plan based on certain assumptions. Those assumptions are:
1.
The co-chairs of the conference shall be the spokespersons
for the US side during the period leading up to, during and
after the conference.
2.
The President may determine to interpose himself at some
point in connection with the conference - perhaps, at the
beginning of the conference - to establish his agenda
publicly.
3.
Conference attendees shall be at the ministerial level but
will not be Foreign Ministers.
4.
The international media will be particularly interested in
the conference because of its world-wide implications and
because it comes less than a week before Earth Day 20.
5.
Extreme environmental groups may attempt to take advantage
of the world-wide media attention on the conference to make
their own statement (s) on the status of the world's
environment.
Pre-Conference
*
An announcement of the conference, including dates, times,
location and participants. This should be done as a follow-
up to the President's initial announcement of the
conference. Depending on the extent of White House
involvement, this announcement can be made at the White
House press office, the State Department or through a press
conference hosted by the three U.S. chairs at some neutral
site such as the National Press Club. (Preferable)
*
Messages/themes must be immediately determined, and
incorporated into all media relations planning.
*
Speech inserts, outlining the purpose of the conference, the
President's commitment to the success of the conference and
the Administration's determination that it be part of a
continuing environmental process, must be developed and
provided to the three conference chairs - and to the entire
Cabinet - for use in their existing speech calendars.
Media Relations
Page Three
*
Using selected spokespersons from the Administration, one-
on-one and one-on-a-group sessions with political,
international and environmental journalists should be
initiated to "lay the groundwork" for how the conference is
to be perceived in the U.S. media.
State Department spokespersons to initiate conversations
with foreign press stationed in Washington and New York to
provide them with advance information about the conference
and the U.S. goals for the conference.
*
USIA's "Worldnet" and the VOA should begin to promote the
conference in their broadcasts and through interviews with
high-ranking U.S. participants in the conference.
*
Memorandum of anticipation should be distributed to U.S.
ambassadors for participating countries, encouraging them to
talk with the local (national) media in their host countries
to "position" the conference properly before it begins.
*
A series of Op-ed pieces should be developed in advance of
the conference for release to U.S. news media to establish
the importance of the conference and the President's
determination that it will be a successful meeting.
A series of personal letters to editors from Cabinet
officials highlighting the conference and its importance to
the world community.
*
A series of "preparation meetings" between high-level
administration officials and environmental groups, business
organizations, labor unions and other interested parties to
establish a truly American position and to ensure that all
American interest groups have their opportunity for "input"
prior to the conference.
*
Again, depending on the extent of White House involvement,
periodic briefings on the status of the conference-in-
preparation should be held in the White House press briefing
room or in Room 450 (lesser White House visibility) or by
the three U.S. chairs at some other neutral site.
*
Special briefings by key Administration officials to the
news magazines to position the conference as a significant
element of the President's environmental program.
*
"Fact Sheets" on the conference should be sent to editors of
every daily newspaper in the country.
Media Relations
Page Four
Eve of the Conference
*
Live interviews (via satellite) from Washington with each
of the U.S. chairs by local anchors of TV news shows in
selected U.S. markets (NY, Chicago, Atlanta, Los Angeles,
Dallas, etc.)
*
"Exclusive" advance briefings for the wire services and
networks about the conference, its importance and the
Administration's commitment to its success.
*
Live appearances by the three U.S. chairs on the morning
shows airing the day before the conference opens.
USIA "Worldnet" live interviews for transmission overseas
with appropriate ministers and U.S. co-chairs.
Press availabilities of U.S. co-chairs with foreign press.
Editorial board briefings for the Washington Post, New York
Times and Wall Street Journal.
Special briefings for Washington bureau chiefs and their
environmental reporters.
U.S. co-chair(s) appear on Larry King radio show.
The Conference
Kick-off ceremonies open to the media; photo ops with the
President (if he chooses) and the ministers attending.
Photo-ops of social event the night before the opening.
(At State?) (With Baker?)
Opening of the conference open to the media for photo-op.
Briefing in mid-morning by a U.S. co-chair --
(status report
what do we expect to happen.)
Daily briefings by the U.S. chairs timed to meet the
international media deadlines (note time changes.)
Press availabilities for foreign ministers for their
national press.
Media Relations
Page Five
*
Wrap-up briefing for U.S. press by U.S. co-chairs
(perhaps, a joint appearance by a spokesperson for foreign
guests, followed by press briefings by nationalities.)
*
Nightline appearance by U.S. co-chairs and a selected
foreign minister.
Post Conference
*
Appearances on all three U.S. network television morning
shows.
*
Appearance at the National Press Club luncheon program of a
U.S. co-chair.
*
Live "Worldnet" analysis by a U.S. co-chair for transmission
around the world.
*
Op-ed pieces in New York Times, LA Times, Washington Post,
Chicago Tribune, and Wall Street Journal.
*
Editorial Boards with key newspapers around the U.S.
*
One-on-one interviews with significant foreign media such as
The Times of London, International Herald Tribune, etc.
*
One-on-one interviews (at least by phone) with Time,
Newsweek, Fortune, US News, Business Week, etc.
*
Presidential speech praising the conference, its goals and
objectives; and, pledging to pursue its recommendations to
the fullest.
*
Speech by the U.S. Ambassador to the UN (at the UN) calling
on that organization to mobilize the forces of the world to
implement the recommendations of the conference.
CONGRESSIONAL
What involvement do we want from/with Congress? Do we include as
a target for media attention and information dissemination?
Needs to be determined. If so, program needs to be expanded to
include MCs.
Media Relations
Page Six
QUESTIONS TO BE RAISED
1.
Who is the White House political "heavy-weight" who will cut
through the bureaucracy for us? How soon can we meet with
him/her?
2.
Who gives clearance for activities, remarks, scheduling,
etc.
3.
What are the administration's goals for the conference?
What is the bottom-line message sought by the U.S.?
4.
Who will be the spokespersons for the U.S.? Who are our
contacts with them? What kind of "clout" can we use to get
them to do what we want with their schedules?
5.
Why is Reilly not a co-chair? How will we avoid the
questions about his lack of visible participation?
6.
What resources are available in the departments and agencies
and who will tell them to cooperate with us?
7.
Who is our contact in the White House press office? Who
will tell him/her?
8. What kind of visibility does the President want on this
conference?
9. Who is our contact at State? Defense? Other agencies?
10. What kind of reference (if any) is to be made to Earth Day
20?
11. Can we call on the UN or is the U.S. doing this outside the
realm of the UN?
THE WHITE HOUSE
Office of the Press Secretary
For Immediate Release
February 26, 1990
STATEMENT BY THE PRESS SECRETARY
President Bush today invited a number of countries, the European
Community, and the Organization of Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD) to send official delegations to a White House
Conference on Science and Economics Research Related to Global
Change. The Conference will be held in Washington, D.C., April
17-18, 1990.
The President announced his intention to host this conference
during his meeting with President Gorbachev and again recently in
a speech to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change. The Conference will be devoted to science and economics
issues relevant to policy on global environmental issues,
including climate change. It is designed to substantially
enhance and broaden international understanding of the important
science and economics research issues related to global change.
The Conference will also assist in framing a strategy for
implementing a joint international understanding of this science
and economics research effort, and linking that knowledge to the
policy process both nationally and internationally. The
Administration considers the Conference a vital next step in a
joint international approach to address possible changes in the
global environment.
Conference participants have been invited to send delegations
consisting of their senior scientific, environmental, and economic
officials. The President has designated the Director of the
Office of Science and Technology Policy, Dr. D. Allan Bromley;
the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, Dr. Michael
Boskin; and the Chairman of the Council on Environmental Quality,
Mr. Michael R. Deland, to serve as Co-Chairmen of this
Conference.
#
#
#
FACT SHEET
FOR
THE PRESIDENT'S WHITE HOUSE CONFERENCE
ON
SCIENCE AND ECONOMICS RESEARCH RELATED TO GLOBAL CHANGE
2/26/90
On February 26, 1990, the President invited the Heads of
State from seventeen countries, the European Community,
and the OECD to send ministerial-level delegates to a
White House Conference on Science and Economics Research
Related to Global Change.
The Conference will be held in Washington, D.C. on April
17-18, 1990.
The President first indicated his intention to host such
a Conference on this subject during his Summit meetings
with President Gorbachev, on December 4, 1989, and later
on Monday, February 5, 1990 during his speech to the
United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
The Conference will be devoted to science and economics
research issues relevant to policy on global change,
including climate. The Conference is designed to address
important next steps that substantially enhance and
broaden international understanding of science and
economic research issues that relate to global change.
Further, the Conference seeks to frame the initial steps
towards a strategy for implementing joint international
science and economics research efforts. It also seeks to
integrate and link scientific and economic research
results to both the domestic and international policy
process. The Conference is unique as an international
forum both because it focuses on the essential questions
of research needed to support the international policy
process and because it seeks for the first time to join
research issues central to both the science and the
economics related to global change.
o
The Conference focuses on "Global Change", a scope of
research interest that has evolved out of the science
that concerns itself with understanding the fundamental
processes that govern the way the global Earth functions.
Thus, the research agenda not only includes global
climate change, but also includes other important global
processes such as ozone depletion in the polar regions
and on global scales, biodiversity, large scale changes
in land use and their impact on global processes, such as
deforestation, and other large scale processes such as
1
desertification.
The Conference is conceived as an integral part of the
on-going international process of trying to understand
changes in the global environment. The need for
substantially improved understanding of both the science
and economics of global change has been noted by
virtually all world leaders. This Conference will focus
on scientific and economic research issues as a
complementary effort to the on-going Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other up-coming
international meetings that seek to address the serious
policy issues that evolve out of the concerns for the
changes in the global environment, particularly climate
change. The President strongly supports the IPCC efforts
and expects that the results of the Conference will
contribute to the on-going international debate and
action on these issues. For example, the leadership of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has been
invited to take an active role in the Conference.
The Conference will convene a delegation of three
mínisterial-level officials from a representative group
of nations, each representing one of three essential
disciplines: science, economics, and the environment. The
Conference was conceived with the idea that a small
representative group of countries would be invited to
participate; their selection is based on the simple
criteria that the meeting should include countries or
representatives of country interest that have
substantial populations, large land masses,
industrialized economies or heavy future energy needs,
substantial research infrastructures, or have provided
international leadership on issues related to climate and
global change. A representative group of countries has
been selected. The President has asked the heads of state
in the following countries and organizations to send a
delegation. These countries and organizations are:
1. Australia
2. Brazil
3. Canada
4. Federal Republic of Germany
5. France
6. India
7. Indonesia
8. Italy
9. Japan
10. Mexico
11. Netherlands
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12. Nigeria
13. Norway
14. Poland
15. Soviet Union
16. United Kingdom
17. Zaire
18. European Community
19. OECD
It is expected that each country or organization will
send their mínísterial-level official to represent each
of their agencies of science, economics, and the
environment, together with no more than two staff
associates per official. It is suggested that one
delegate in each of the three areas will be an individual
who is currently active in scientific or economics
research. It is recognized that the delegations are
likely to have one "at-large" member. Thus, the total
delegation size should not exceed ten per country. Once
the delegations are determined, it is planned to consult
with these countries on agenda details.
The Conference is designed to be a forum to bring a
number of ministerial-level leaders together to enhance
international cooperation and to build the basis for
joint efforts in these vital areas. It is hope that the
delegates, working together, will agree upon those areas
of opportunity for cooperative action in the areas of
scientific and economics research. The goal would be to
address questions such as:
*
How well can we predict temperature trends in the
decades ahead ?
*
How "good" are our global-scale models, such as
models to predict temperature changes ?
*
How well can we predict the interconnections between
global environmental change and the resulting social
and economic impacts ?
*
What are the economic cost of responding to global
change ?
* Are "good" are our economic models ?
By addressing such questions, it is hoped that the
nations might pledge to support an international research
effort related to global change that focuses rapid
3
improvement of both scientific and economic knowledge and
developing the necessary infrastructure, including:
* Establishing a more formal international mechanism
to improve the coordination of global change science
and economic research programs, and
*
Participating in cooperative research efforts, such
as the World Ocean Circulation Experiment and
cooperative economic projects of the OECD.
The Conference is a White House Conference, initiated by
the President. Hence, the President has asked three
Assistants to the President, in the relevant areas, to be
the Co-Chairmen the Conference. The three Co-Chairmen
are: the President's Science Advisor and Director of the
Office of Science and Technology Policy, Dr. D. Allan
Bromley; the Chairman of the President's Council of
Economic Advisers, Dr. Michael J. Boskin; and the
Chairman of the President's Council on Environmental
Quality, Mr. Michael R. Deland.
The President stated, "this Conference is a vital next
step in a joint international approach to address changes
in the global environment".
(File=Guidance.225)
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