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Originally Processed With FOIA(s): FOIA Number: S FOIA MARKER This is not a textual record. This is used as an administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential Library Staff. Record Group/Collection: George H.W. Bush Presidential Records Collection/Office of Origin: Speechwriting, White House Office of Series: Speech File Draft Files Subseries: Chron File, 1989-1993 OA/ID Number: 13519 Folder ID Number: 13519-004 Folder Title: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2/5/90 [OA 4391] [2] Stack: Row: Section: Shelf: Position: G 25 6 7 4 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON February 1, 1990 MEMORANDUM FOR CHRISS WINSTON FROM: ROGER B. PORTER RBP SUBJECT: Presidential Remarks to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change I recommend one deletion and one addition to the commendatory speech. Deletion: Page one, second paragraph, last sentence. The words "most ecologically fragile" should be removed. The term fragile has developed into an advocacy word used by environmental activists whenever they want something returned to its primitive state. Anyone who visited the Prince William Sound quickly realized, contrary to the statements of the day, that it was not one of the world's more "fragile" places. The same notion applies to the earth's climate. A historical record m.f. of billions of years supports the theory that the world's climate has an amazing ability to adapt to change and cannot accurately be described as fragile. Addition: Page six, second paragraph, fourth sentence. The sentence should be changed to read, "Developing a National Energy Strategy, which includes initiatives to increase energy M.R. efficiency and the use of renewable energies." Last Friday, the Department of Energy announced a series of initiatives to increase energy efficiency and the use of renewable energy sources. The Department will spend $336 million on the initiatives over the next 6 years. Energy savings from mf. the initiatives through the year 2000 are expected to exceed $32 billion. These initiatives will achieve significant air pollution reduction. 9 E Id / NAV 06 Document No. 109727SS WHITE HOUSE STAFFING MEMORANDUM DATE: 2/1/90 ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY: 2/1/90 5:00 PM PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE SUBJECT: ACTION FYI ACTION FYI VICE PRESIDENT MCCLURE SUNUNU NEWMAN SCOWCROFT PORTER DARMAN ROGICH BATES UNTERMEYER CARD ROGERS CICCONI WINSTON DEMAREST PINKERTON FITZWATER DELAND GRAY BROMLEY HAGIN REMARKS: Please forward any comments directly to Chriss Winston, Rm. 122, x2930, no later than 5:00 PM TODAY, Tuesday, February 1, with a copy to my office. Thank you. RESPONSE: James W. Cicconi Assistant to the President and Deputy to the Chief of Staff Ext. 2702 (Lange/Cawley) February 1, 1989 1990 JAN 32 PM 12: 04 10:45 A.M. [IPCC.DOC] PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS: INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY MONDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 1990 10:15 A.M. Thank you, Dr. Bolin [Bo-leen]. Professor Obasi. Dr. Tolba. Delegates of the World Meteorological Congress, and the United Nations Environment Program. Let me thank and congratulate all of you, for taking on an issue of such great importance. The decisions this organization makes will have a profound effect on the world's environmental and economic policy. In the post-war era, we've produced the most technologically advanced creations of man. We've also gained new understanding -- though still incomplete -- of the most ecologically fragile creations of nature. But unfortunately, somewhere along the way, we picked up a bias, that has harmed both man and nature: a mistaken belief that there is a divergence of interests -- a logical division -- between the natural world and we who inhabit it. Nothing could be further from the truth -- or more central to the work of this Panel. You are called upon to strike an unprecedented international bargain: a convergence between global environmental policy, and global economic policy, where both sides benefit -- and neither is compromised. You are called upon to end the environmental cold war. 2 This will be possible only if we understand that economic growth and environmental integrity are not contradictory priorities. One reinforces and complements the other. A sound environment is the basis for the continuity and quality of human life and enterprise. And strong economies allow nations to fulfill the obligations of environmental stewardship. Where there is economic strength, such stewardship is considered a necessity. But where there is poverty, it is too often a luxury. For that reason, I believe we must usher in a new era of global cooperation: for environmental protection and economic growth. For intelligent management of industrial and natural resources. Above all, for sustainable development -- around the world. The United States believes the I.P.C.C. is the best forum to develop policy on global climate change. We're committed to international cooperation on this issue. And we consider it vital, that the community of nations is drawn together -- in an ordered, rational way -- to assess the potential for climate change. The state of the science; the social and economic impacts; and the right response strategies: all are crucial components to a global resolution. The stakes here are very high. There is no question that human activities are changing the atmosphere in unexpected and unprecedented ways. Since the mid- 3 1800s, the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has gone up at bont by 25 percent. ? What we don't yet understand is the extent of the alterations we've brought about -- and how they're linked to a significant, imminent climate change. Last fall, many clear thinkers -- among them, world leaders -- were citing a significant thinning of sea ice at the poles as evidence that global warming had arrived. Recent observations show that the polar ice sheets are not melting, they're growing in size. I'm not prepared -- academically, or otherwise -- to draw conclusions. But I have noticed something about the scientists drawing the conclusions. Those who see climate change as a clear and present danger represent one distinct minority. Those who discount it completely, represent another minority. But many scientists -- if not most -- are not ready to claim that the extent of global climate change can now be reliably detected -- or predicted. That may be to their credit. When he was observing the fervor of the French Revolution, the English poet William Blake wrote, "The best lack all conviction, while the worst are filled with passionate intensity." Here, too, we are called upon for action based on observation -- not media-driven emotion, or the politics of apocalypse. The decisions being made are too important to be compromised intellectually -- or polarized politically. 4 Questions remain: about the reflective effects of cloud cover, the cooling effects and CO2 absorption of oceans, and other sinks and feedback mechanisms we don't yet understand. Those questions, among others, suggest that we should attend to what is known about climate change -- and work to know more. Current computer models are marvels of mathematics. Still, they cannot yet be said to represent reality -- and cannot be expected to predict the future. Above all, responsible policy cannot rest on the shifting sands of hypothesis and a chaos of conjecture. In the search for answers, the United States continues to lead the world. We're seeking hard data and new ways to improve the science. Because what science now knows with confidence, policy-makers can't use. And what policy-makers need to make decisions, science doesn't yet know. In spite of this uncertainty, some suggest we should act now, on the chance that significant climate change becomes certain. Others point to the opposite edge of that sword: any meaningful preemptive policies would bring only the certainty of prohibitive expense; conflict with Third World development; and declining standards of living, worldwide. I believe we can do better. There is a reasoned middle ground, that matches policy to emerging scientific knowledge -- and reconciles environmental protection to economic development. With every word, with every decision made here, we're also making a committment that is profoundly personal. I think all of 5 us understand, deep inside, how the actions we take now speak to the future. Last week, in my State of the Union address, I spoke of stewardship. I believe it's something we owe our children and grandchildren -- because the earth we stand upon is only borrowed, never owned. So the United States remains committed to a leadership role on environmental issues. In our domestic programs. Our work to forge international agreements. Our assistance to developing and East Bloc nations. And here, by leading the Response Strategies Working Group. Overall, we're already doing more than any other country to understand and address global warming -- in terms of financial and human resources, by more than a factor of ten. I just proposed a budget to our Congress for fiscal 1991 that devotes a total of over [$70] billion to environment-related work. Funding for the U.S. Global Change Research Program will increase by nearly 60 percent, to over $1 billion. That will allow NASA to move forward with its "Mission to Planet Earth" -- and will fund the launch of the first U.S. Earth Observing System, to advance the state of knowledge about the planet we share. We've already taken many steps that bring major benefits in their own right. Steps that make sense on their own merits, and that will also help reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other 6 gases now building up in the atmosphere. Let me outline them very briefly: We want to stabilize -- and reduce wherever we can -- both our energy consumption and our total emissions. So we're pursuing new technology development. Creating a revised Clean Air Act with incentives for industry to find creative, market- driven solutions. thopones Working out a comprehensive revision of our a National Aweloping Energy Strategy. And launching a major unwable review new everary and effrering and which reforestation initiative to plant a billion trees a private land across America. in every enexing year on lurgy conclusion We're also working through diplomatic channels, and through initiating innovative measures like debt-for-nature swaps, to do more than simply reduce global deforestation. We hope to reverse it. The economics of our response strategies to climate change are getting intensive study. We intend to develop real data on the costs of various response strategies, assess new measures, and challenge other nations to follow suit. And we will offer technical support to those who need it. As we work to create policy to manage CO2 and other emissions, we want to encourage the most innovative responses. Wherever possible, we believe that market mechanisms should be applied -- and that policy must be consistent with economic growth and free market principles in all countries. But we will break the hold of the environmental cold war only through dialogue -- through a shared commitment to consensus. 7 If we hope to promote environmental protection and economic growth around the world, it will be important to work with, not against industry. That will mean moving beyond the tradition of command, control, and compliance -- toward a new kind of environmental cooperation. Many industries, in fact, are already providing crucial research and solutions. And a few are already ahead of us. One power-plant management firm, just across the river in Virginia, donated $2 million in 1988 for tree planting in Guatemala -- to compensate for a coal-fired plant it was building in Connecticut. And the company expects to couple tree-planting programs with all of the new power plants now on its drawing boards. Where developing nations are concerned, some suggest we'll have to abandon the laissez-faire, free-market principles that allowed the industrial world to prosper. In fact, we think it's all the more crucial, in the developing countries, to apply the principles of the free market in the service of the environment. To the extent we can accelerate the advancement of these nations, it will take less energy for them to produce wealth: in modern industrial countries, energy use per unit of G.N.P. has declined over time -- steadily, and dramatically. So we need to work with the developing nations: Applying the power of the marketplace, considering technology transfer, and encouraging industry to assist developing nations in making quantum leaps in technologies. That will allow developing 8 nations to grow more quickly and easily -- and may help them avoid making the environmental mistakes we older nations have made. As I said a moment ago, I believe we should make use of what we know. We know that the future of the earth cannot be compromised. We bear a sacred trust in our tenancy here -- and a covenant with those most precious to us: our children, and theirs. We also know of the efficiency of economic incentive -- and that free markets yield the most creative solutions. We must now apply the wisdom of the market, in defense of the environment we share. It is time to heal this false schism. It is time to put an end to the environmental cold war. Working together, with good faith and earnest dialogue, I believe it can be done. But more important: We know it must be done. Thank you -- and God bless you. ### BARRY McBEE JCA (Lange/Cawley) February 1, 1989 1990 JAN 32 Fil !2: 04 10:45 A.M. [IPCC.DOC] PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS: INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY report if this body and MONDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 1990 the 10:15 A.M. Organization M Thank you, Dr. Bolin [Bo-leen]. Professor Obasi. Dr. Tolba. Delegates of the World Meteorological Congress, and the United Nations Environment Program. Let me thank and congratulate all of you, for taking on an issue of such great arising importance. The decisions this organization makes will have a from it profound effect on the world's environmental and economic policy. In the post-war era, we've produced the most technologically advanced creations of man. We've also gained new understanding -- though still incomplete -- of the most ecologically fragile creations of nature. But unfortunately, somewhere along the way, we picked up a bias, that has harmed both man and nature: a mistaken belief that there is a divergence of interests -- a logical division -- between the natural world and we who inhabit it. Nothing could be further from the truth -- or more central to the work of this Panel. You are called upon to strike an unprecedented international bargain: a convergence between balance global environmental policy, and global economic policy, where both sides benefit -- and neither is compromised. You are called upon to end the environmental :9d cold war I NVC 06 2 This will be possible only if we understand that economic growth and environmental integrity are not contradictory priorities. One reinforces and complements the other. A sound environment is the basis for the continuity and quality of human life and enterprise. And strong economies allow nations to fulfill the obligations of environmental stewardship. Where there is economic strength, such stewardship is considered been a necessity. But where there is poverty, it is too often a Considered luxury. has For that reason, I believe we must usher in a new era of global cooperation: for environmental protection and economic growth. For intelligent management of industrial and natural resources. Above all, for sustainable development -- around the world. The United States believes the I.P.C.C. is the best forum to develop policy on global climate change. We're committed to international cooperation on this issue. And we consider it vital, that the community of nations is drawn together -- in an ordered, rational way -- to assess the potential for climate change. The state of the science; the social and economic impacts; and the right response strategies: all are crucial components to a global resolution. The stakes here are very high. There is no question that human activities are changing the atmosphere in unexpected and unprecedented ways. Since the mid- among est ever freed and develop appropriate mt the sensonal responses b, mankind and, if so, when These whether they will resultin M.F. Changes will occur 3 1800s, the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has gone up by 25 percent. What we don't yet understand is the extent of the alterations we've brought about -- and how they're linked to a significant imminent climate change. Last fall, many clear thinkers -- among them, world leaders -- were citing a significant thinning of sea ice at the poles as evidence that global warming had arrived. Recent observations show that the polar ice sheets are not melting, they're growing in size. see it as amimminent I'm not prepared -- academically, or otherwise -- to draw had conclusions. But I have noticed something about the scientists issuesible And threat to drawing the conclusions. mankind uncomfortable Those who see climate change as a clear and present danger in represent one distinct minority. Those who discount it question the completely, represent another minority. But many scientists 1 likelihorl if not most - are not ready to claim that the extent of global of climet climate change can now be reliably detected -- or predicted. ing Change if the That may be to their credit. world When he was observing the fervor of the French Revolution, Continues . I the English poet William Blake wrote, "The best lack all Current conviction, while the worst are filled with passionate must path Jet intensity." Here, too, we are called upon for action based on S observation -- not media-driven emotion, or the politics of with apocalypse. The decisions being made are too important to be Absolute cestaints compromised intellectually -- or polarized politically. defineble 4ml Ca/<v/Able inaleguate vnlerstandings of Science, or M.F. 4 Questions remain: about the reflective effects of cloud cover, the cooling effects and CO2 absorption of oceans, and other sinks and feedback mechanisms we don't yet understand. Those questions, among others, suggest that we should attend to what is known about climate change -- and work to know more. Current computer models are marvels of mathematics. Still, they cannot yet be said to represent reality -- and cannot be expected to predict the future. Above all, responsible policy cannot rest on the shifting sands of hypothesis and a chaos of conjecture. In the search for answers, the United States continues to lead the world. We're seeking hard data and new ways to improve MENTION with the science. Because what science now knows with confidence, House surross policy-makers can't use. And what policy-makers need to make ECOHOMICS LOMFER BMOE This Speir decisions, science doesn't yet know. In spite of this uncertainty, some suggest we should act conclusively now, on the chance that significant climate change becomes Discuss certain. Others point to the opposite edge of that sword: any No meaningful preemptive policies would bring only the certainty of Pocioy prohibitive expense; conflict with Third World development; and declining standards of living, worldwide. I believe we can do better. There is a reasoned middle ground, that matches policy to emerging scientific knowledge -- and reconciles environmental protection to economic development. With every word, with every decision made hare, we're also making a committment that is profoundly personal. I think all of 5 us understand, deep inside, how the actions we take now speak to the future. Last week, in my State of the Union address, I spoke of stewardship. I believe it's something we owe our children and grandchildren -- because the earth we stand upon is only borrowed, never owned. So the United States remains committed to a leadership role on environmental issues. In our domestic programs. Our work to forge international agreements. Our assistance to developing and East Bloc nations. And here, by leading the Response Strategies Working Group. Overall, we're already doing more than any other country to understand and address global warming -- in terms of financial and human resources, by more than a factor of ten. I just proposed a budget to our Congress for fiscal 1991 that devotes a total of over [$70] billion to environment-related work. Funding for the U.S. Global Change Research Program will increase by nearly 60 percent, to over $1 billion. That will allow NASA to move forward with its "Mission to Planet Earth" -- and will fund the launch of the first U.S. Earth Observing System, to advance the state of knowledge about the planet we share. We've already taken many steps that bring major benefits in their own right. Steps that make sense on their own merits, and that will also help reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other 6 gases now building up in the atmosphere. Let me outline them very briefly: We want to stabilize -- and reduce wherever we can -- both our energy consumption and our total emissions. So we're pursuing new technology development. Creating a revised Clean Air Act with incentives for industry to find creative, market- driven solutions. Working out a comprehensive review and revision of our National Energy Strategy. And launching a major reforestation initiative to plant a billion trees a year on private land across America. We're also working through diplomatic channels, and through innovative measures like debt-for-nature swaps, to do more than simply reduce global deforestation. We hope to reverse it. The economics of our response strategies to climate change are getting intensive study. We intend to develop real data on the costs of various response strategies, assess new measures, and challenge other nations to follow suit. And we will offer technical support to those who need it. CFCs, on As we work to create policy to manage CO2, and other emissions, we want to encourage the most innovative responses. Wherever possible, we believe that market mechanisms should be applied -- and that policy must be consistent with economic growth and free market principles in all countries. But we will break the hold of the environmental cold war only through dialogue -- through a shared commitment to consensus. hchieve results 7 If we hope to promote environmental protection and economic growth around the world, it will be important to work with, not against industry. That will mean moving beyond the tradition of command, control, and compliance -- toward a new kind of environmental cooperation. Many industries, in fact, are already providing crucial research and solutions And a few are already ahead of us. One power-plant management firm, just across the river in Virginia, donated $2 million in 1988 for tree planting in Guatemala -- to compensate for a coal-fired plant it was building in Connecticut. And the company expects to couple tree-planting programs with all of the new power plants now on its drawing boards. Where developing nations are concerned, some suggest we'll have to abandon the laissez-faire, free-market principles that allowed the industrial world to prosper. In fact, we think it's all the more crucial, in the developing countries, to apply the principles of the free market in the service of the environment. To the extent we can accelerate the advancement of these nations, it will take less energy for them to produce wealth: in modern industrial countries, energy use per unit of G.N.P. has declined over time -- steadily, and dramatically. So we need to work with the developing nations: Applying the power of the marketplace, considering technology transfer, and encouraging industry to assist developing nations in making quantum leaps in technologies. That will allow developing 8 nations to grow more quickly and easily -- and may help them avoid making the environmental mistakes we older nations have made. As I said a moment ago, I believe we should make use of what we know. We know that the future of the earth cannot be compromised. We bear a sacred trust in our tenancy here -- and a covenant with those most precious to us: our children, and theirs. We also know of the efficiency of economic incentive -- and that free markets yield the most creative solutions. We must now apply the wisdom of the market, in defense of the environment we share. It is time to heal this false schism. It is time to put an end to the environmental cold war Working together, with good faith and earnest dialogue, I believe it can be done. But more important: We know it must be done. Thank you -- and God bless you. # # # ) 109727SS Document No. WHITE HOUSE STAFFING MEMORANDUM DATE: 2/1/90 ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY: 2/1/90 5:00 PM PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE SUBJECT: ACTION FYI ACTION FYI VICE PRESIDENT MCCLURE SUNUNU NEWMAN SCOWCROFT PORTER DARMAN ROGICH BATES UNTERMEYER CARD ROGERS CICCONI WINSTON DEMAREST PINKERTON FITZWATER DELAND GRAY BROMLEY HAGIN REMARKS: Please forward any comments directly to Chriss Winston, Rm. 122, x2930, no later than 5:00 PM TODAY, Tuesday, February 1, with a copy to my office. Thank you. RESPONSE: James W. Cicconi Assistant to the President and Deputy to the Chief of Staff Ext. 2702 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON February 1, 1990 MEMORANDUM FOR CHRISS WINSTON FROM: JIM PINKERTON D SUBJECT: Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change draft This speech is excellent in parts, but it tries to do too much and is too long. Specifically, in explaining that we are taking the middle ground between absolute faith in global warming and absolute skepticism, we bash both sides too much. We believe that the speech should aim to accomplish three things: First, to underscore that the President's very presence at the conference speaks to his feelings about the issue. He will be, after all, the very first American President to attend such a conference. Second, we should articulate the President's feelings about his attending, e.g., the President could note that a few days before he was addressing the issue of reducing American and Soviet troop levels and that he considers this issue to be on the same plane of global importance. The President could also expand on his personal feelings about the environment. Third, we should emphasize, as the draft in part does, that we are taking actions and spending large sums to get better answers on the issue. Specific comments: pg. 1, para. 5, line 1 The cold war metaphor is very apt. 3,4,1 "I'm not prepared -- academically, or otherwise -- to draw conclusions. But I have noticed something about the scientists drawing the conclusions." The first sentence in this pair of sentences is the right position to take. It is the second sentence that starts a series of deprecating statements about those who have drawn conclusions on global warming. These criticisms culminate in the Blake quote -- it's way too harsh, and end at 4,2,2 with "Above all, responsible policy cannot rest on the shifting sands of hypothesis and a chaos of conjecture" -- a veiled jab at those who have decided to decide. (more) 2 The point is that we do not need to characterize those who have made up their minds. It is entirely sufficient that the President merely state his willingness to get better answers to this controversy. We do not need, in other words, to go out of our way in order to be critical -- thereby causing controversy to rebound onto the President. 5,2 &3 This is more like it: talking about the importance of stewardship and the commitment of the U.S. to be a leader on this and other environmental issues. 6,2,4 Naturally, we applaud the reforestation language. And the example of the tree-planting in Guatemala at 7,2,1 is the perfect illustration. ### February 1, 1990 FROM: Mike Deland TO: Chriss Winston RE: IPCC SPEECH Here is a step-by-step walk-through of my handwritten notes in the margins of Monday's draft speech. Page One: Either delete "logical" and don't qualify "division" OR state it more clearly by substituting "illogical" -- that, in fact, is what we mean. Delete "cold war. " We have been working together for years on environmental issues with much success. It is an unnecessary and inaccurate negative assessment of the situation. Page Two: no comments Page Three: I don't believe there exists a scientific link between polar ice sheets and sea ice; one is on land, the other on ocean. One would be "walking on thin ice" to suggest that this comparison offers evidence either way on the global warming question. The Blake quote is unnecessarily offensive. Those in the audience may not be "passionate" but they are dedicated. The quote is not worth the risk of insulting the group. "Media-driven emotion" is a bit strong. Something along the lines of "The politics are outstripping the science" might be better. -2- Page Four: The function of such models is to help us predict the future. The point to be made here is that while models can be useful in making prediction, they are limited in the degree of certainty they can provide. The line about the U.S. "continues to lead the world" sounds arrogant coming from the President. It is something that I and others say on his behalf all the time. The language at the bottom of the page about a "reasoned middle ground" is on target, but is begging for an example. This would be a good place to insert Secretary Baker's language on global climate change from his maiden speech one year ago. Page Five: Can we re-phrase "more than any other country" while still taking credit? Page Six: Delete "environmental cold war" for same reasons as on page one. Page Seven: "Pollution prevention" is a concept that the President supports and has spoken about before. It could be mentioned as a concrete example of the "new kind of environmental cooperation" that is mentioned here. Document No. 109727SS WHITE HOUSE STAFFING MEMORANDUM DATE: 2/1/90 ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY: 2/1/90 5:00 PM SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION FYI ACTION FYI VICE PRESIDENT MCCLURE SUNUNU NEWMAN SCOWCROFT PORTER DARMAN ROGICH BATES UNTERMEYER CARD ROGERS CICCONI WINSTON DEMAREST PINKERTON FITZWATER DELAND GRAY BROMLEY HAGIN REMARKS: Please forward any comments directly to Chriss Winston, Rm. 122, x2930, no later than 5:00 PM TODAY, Tuesday, February 1, with a copy to my office. Thank you. RESPONSE: James W. Cicconi Assistant to the President and Deputy to the Chief of Staff Ext. 2702 (Lange/Cawley) February 1, 1989 1990 JAN 32 PM 12: 04 10:45 A.M. [IPCC.DOC] PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS: INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY MONDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 1990 10:15 A.M. Thank you, Dr. Bolin [Bo-leen]. Professor Obasi. Dr. Tolba. Delegates of the World Meteorological Congress, and the United Nations Environment Program. Let me thank and congratulate all of you, for taking on an issue of such great importance. The decisions this organization makes will have a profound effect on the world's environmental and economic policy. In the post-war era, we've produced the most technologically advanced creations of man. We've also gained new understanding -- though still incomplete -- of the most ecologically fragile creations of nature. But unfortunately, somewhere along the way, we picked up a bias, that has harmed both man and nature: a mistaken belief that there is a divergence of interests -- a logical division -- between the natural world and we who inhabit it. illogical Nothing could be further from the truth -- or more central to the work of this Panel. You are called upon to strike an unprecedented international bargain: a convergence between global environmental policy, and global economic policy, where both sides benefit -- and neither is compromised. You are called upon to end the environmental cold war. have working N.Tcoll year. been Hogeth by 2 This will be possible only if we understand that economic growth and environmental integrity are not contradictory priorities. One reinforces and complements the other. A sound environment is the basis for the continuity and quality of human life and enterprise. And strong economies allow nations to fulfill the obligations of environmental stewardship. Where there is economic strength, such stewardship is considered a necessity. But where there is poverty, it is too often a luxury. For that reason, I believe we must usher in a new era of global cooperation: for environmental protection and economic growth. For intelligent management of industrial and natural resources. Above all, for sustainable development -- around the world. The United States believes the I.P.C.C. is the best forum to develop policy on global climate change. We're committed to international cooperation on this issue. And we consider it vital, that the community of nations is drawn together -- in an ordered, rational way -- to assess the potential for climate change. The state of the science; the social and economic impacts; and the right response strategies: all are crucial components to a global resolution. The stakes here are very high. There is no question that human activities are changing the atmosphere in unexpected and unprecedented ways. Since the mid- 3 1800s, the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has gone up by 25 percent. What we don't yet understand is the extent of the alterations we've brought about -- and how they're linked to a significant, imminent climate change. one one's Last fall, many clear thinkers -- among them, world leaders were citing a significant thinning of sea ice at the poles as sainthing Sea evidence that global warming had arrived. Recent observations 1 and show that the polar ice sheets are not melting, they're growing in size. not I'm not prepared -- academically, or otherwise -- to draw Their conclusions. But I have noticed something about the scientists drawing the conclusions. Those who see climate change as a clear and present danger represent one distinct minority. Those who discount it completely, represent another minority. But many scientists -- if not most -- are not ready to claim that the extent of global climate change can now be reliably detected -- or predicted. That may be to their credit. When he was observing the fervor of the French Revolution, differention the English poet William Blake wrote "The best lack all conviction, while the worst are filled with passionate auduni quite needed intensity. Here, too, we are called upon for action based on observation -- not media-driven emotion, or the politics of not apocalypse. The decisions being made are too important to be may compromised intellectually -- or polarized politically. be indedicated it. want don't to offend abil politic sting Jan outshiging might an be 4 Questions remain: about the reflective effects of cloud cover, the cooling effects and CO2 absorption of oceans, and other sinks and feedback mechanisms we don't yet understand. Those questions, among others, suggest that we should attend to what is known about climate change -- and work to know more. Current computer models are marvels of mathematics. Still, they cannot yet be said to represent reality -- and cannot be models capable of priding expected to predict A the future. Above all, responsible policy are cannot rest on the shifting sands of hypothesis and a chaos of to conjecture In the search for answers, the United States continues to lead the world. We're seeking hard data and new ways to improve sounds the science. Because what science now knows with confidence, Bree. policy-makers can't use. And what policy-makers need to make brown decisions, science doesn't yet know. In spite of this uncertainty, some suggest we should act Something 25gm shall now, on the chance that significant climate change becomes his certain. Others point to the opposite edge of that sword: any with meaningful preemptive policies would bring only the certainty of time prohibitive expense; conflict with Third World development; and declining standards of living, worldwide. I believe we can do better. There is a reasoned middle ground, that matches policy to emerging scientific knowledge -- and reconciles environmental protection to economic development. With every word, with every decision made here, we're also making a committment that is profoundly personal. I think all of Sec. Bahr language for his maiden one yr. speech ago 5 us understand, deep inside, how the actions we take now speak to the future. Last week, in my State of the Union address, I spoke of stewardship. I believe it's something we owe our children and grandchildren -- because the earth we stand upon is only borrowed, never owned. So the United States remains committed to a leadership role on environmental issues. In our domestic programs. Our work to forge international agreements. Our assistance to developing and East Bloc nations. And here, by leading the Response Strategies Working Group. we are we Overall, we're already doing more than any other country to can understand and address global warming -- in terms of financial and human resources, by more than a factor of ten. I just proposed a budget to our Congress for fiscal 1991 SLill credit that devotes a total of over [$70] billion to environment-related work. Funding for the U.S. Global Change Research Program will increase by nearly 60 percent, to over $1 billion. That will allow NASA to move forward with its "Mission to Planet Earth" -- and will fund the launch of the first U.S. Earth Observing System, to advance the state of knowledge about the planet we share. We've already taken many steps that bring major benefits in their own right. Steps that make sense on their own merits, and that will also help reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other 6 gases now building up in the atmosphere. Let me outline them very briefly: We want to stabilize -- and reduce wherever we can -- both our energy consumption and our total emissions. So we're pursuing new technology development. Creating a revised Clean Air Act with incentives for industry to find creative, market- driven solutions. Working out a comprehensive review and revision of our National Energy Strategy. And launching a major reforestation initiative to plant a billion trees a year on private land across America. We're also working through diplomatic channels, and through innovative measures like debt-for-nature swaps, to do more than simply reduce global deforestation. We hope to reverse it. The economics of our response strategies to climate change are getting intensive study. We intend to develop real data on the costs of various response strategies, assess new measures, and challenge other nations to follow suit. And we will offer technical support to those who need it. As we work to create policy to manage CO2 and other emissions, we want to encourage the most innovative responses. Wherever possible, we believe that market mechanisms should be applied -- and that policy must be consistent with economic growth and free market principles in all countries. But we will break the hold of the environmental cold war only through dialogue -- through a shared commitment to consensus. Change Phrase 7 If we hope to promote environmental protection and economic growth around the world, it will be important to work with, not against industry. That will mean moving beyond the tradition of command, control, and compliance -- toward a new kind of Poblution prevention environmental cooperation Many industries, in fact, are already providing crucial research and solutions. And a few are already ahead of us. One power-plant management firm, just across the river in Virginia, donated $2 million in 1988 for tree planting in Guatemala -- to compensate for a coal-fired plant it was building in Connecticut. And the company expects to couple tree-planting programs with all of the new power plants now on its drawing boards. Where developing nations are concerned, some suggest we'll have to abandon the laissez-faire, free-market principles that allowed the industrial world to prosper. In fact, we think it's all the more crucial, in the developing countries, to apply the principles of the free market in the service of the environment. To the extent we can accelerate the advancement of these nations, it will take less energy for them to produce wealth: in modern industrial countries, energy use per unit of G.N.P. has declined over time -- steadily, and dramatically. So we need to work with the developing nations: Applying the power of the marketplace, considering technology transfer, and encouraging industry to assist developing nations in making quantum leaps in technologies. That will allow developing 8 nations to grow more quickly and easily -- and may help them avoid making the environmental mistakes we older nations have made. As I said a moment ago, I believe we should make use of what we know. We know that the future of the earth cannot be compromised. We bear a sacred trust in our tenancy here --- and a covenant with those most precious to us: our children, and theirs. We also know of the efficiency of economic incentive -- and that free markets yield the most creative solutions. We must now apply the wisdom of the market, in defense of the environment we share. It is time to heal this false schism. It is time to put an end to the environmental cold war. Working together, with good faith and earnest dialogue, I believe it can be done. But more important: We know it must be done. Thank you -- and God bless you. # # # 109727SS Document No. WHITE HOUSE STAFFING MEMORAND 0833 DATE: 2/1/90 ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY: 2/1/90 5:00 PM PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE SUBJECT: ACTION FYI ACTION FYI VICE PRESIDENT MCCLURE SUNUNU NEWMAN SCOWCROFT PORTER DARMAN ROGICH BATES UNTERMEYER CARD ROGERS CICCONI WINSTON DEMAREST PINKERTON FITZWATER DELAND GRAY BROMLEY HAGIN REMARKS: Please forward any comments directly to Chriss Winston, Rm. 122, x2930, no later than 5:00 PM TODAY, Tuesday, February 1, with a copy to my office. Thank you. RESPONSE: MEMORANDUM FOR CHRISS WINSTON February 1, 1990 The NSC staff believes the draft Presidential remarks: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are needlessly confrontational by invoking the image of an environmental cold war, which does not accurately reflect the cooperative nature of the work being done in the IPCC. Additional comments are noted throughout the text. James W. Cicconi A Assistant to the President and Deputy to the Chief of Staff Brent Scowcroft Ext. 2702 TA7 RECEIVED 90 FEB I P I : 44 (Lange/Cawley) February 1, 1989 1990 JAN 32 PM 12: 04 10:45 A.M. [IPCC.DOC] PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS: INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY MONDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 1990 10:15 A.M. Thank you, Dr. Bolin [Bo-leen]. Professor Obasi. Dr. Tolba. Delegates of the World Meteorological Congress, and the United Nations Environment Program. Let me thank and congratulate all of you, for taking on an issue of such great importance. The decisions this organization makes will have a profound effect on the world's environmental and economic policy. In the post-war era, we've produced the most technologically advanced creations of man. We've also gained new understanding -- though still incomplete -- of the most ecologically fragile creations of nature. But unfortunately, somewhere along the way, we picked up a bias, that has harmed both man and nature: a mistaken belief that there is a divergence of interests -- a logical division -- between the natural world and we who inhabit it. Nothing could be further from the truth -- or more central to the work of this Panel. You are called upon to strike an unprecedented international bargain: a convergence between global environmental policy, and global economic policy, where both sides benefit -- and neither is compromised. You are called upon to end the environmental cold war. bad symbol cumental coldwar doesn't exist. President confiontational 2 This will be possible only if we understand that economic M.J. divided musit "dank dan not. this growth and environmental integrity are not contradictory priorities. One reinforces and complements the other. A sound environment is the basis for the continuity and thet the don't quality of human life and enterprise. And strong economies allow nations to fulfill the obligations of environmental stewardship. Where there is economic strength, such stewardship is considered a necessity. But where there is poverty, it is too often a 1 ? luxury. For that reason, I believe we must usher in a new era of global cooperation: for environmental protection and economic advance growth. For intelligent management of industrial and natural resources. Above all, for sustainable development -- around the world. The United States believes the I.P.C.C. is the best forum to develop policy on global climate change. We're committed to international cooperation on this issue. And we consider it vital, that the community of nations is drawn together -- in an ordered, rational way -- to assess the potential for climate change. The state of the science; the social and economic impacts; and the right response strategies: all are crucial components to a global resolution. The stakes here are very high. There is no question that human activities are changing the atmosphere in unexpected and unprecedented ways. Since the mid- pick more date a w 3 1800s the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has gone up by 25 percent. What we don't yet understand is the extent of the alterations we've brought about -- and how they're linked to a significant, imminent climate change. Last fall, many clear thinkers -- among them, world leaders -- were citing a significant thinning of sea ice at the poles as scient these or evidence that global warming had arrived. Recent observations show that the polar ice sheets are not melting, they're growing in size. I'm not prepared -- academically, or otherwise -- to draw conclusions. But I have noticed something about the scientists drawing the conclusions. Those who see climate change as a clear and present danger represent one distinct minority. Those who discount it completely, represent another minority. But many scientists -- if not most -- are not ready to claim that the extent of global we educt "Ficare climate change can now be reliably detected -- or predicted. to That may be to their credit. This was as the When he was observing the fervor of the French Revolution, the English poet William Blake wrote, "The best lack all Imsh yeats Revolution same conviction, while the worst are filled with passionate Nota 900 quote intensity. Here, too, we are called upon for action based on for vicas His or observation -- not media-driven emotion, or the politics of apocalypse. The decisions being made are too important to be compromised intellectually -- or polarized politically. 4 Questions remain: about the reflective effects of cloud cover, the cooling effects and CO2 absorption of oceans, and other sinks and feedback mechanisms we don't yet understand. Those questions, among others, suggest that we should attend to what is known about climate change -- and work to know more. Current computer models are marvels of mathematics. Still, infusing they cannot yet be said to represent reality -- and cannot be be the bases of crastic decisions expected to predict the future Above all, responsible policy cannot rest on the shifting sands of hypothesis and a chaos of conjecture. In the search for answers, the United States continues to lead the world. We're seeking hard data and new ways to improve the science. Because what science now knows with confidence, policy-makers can't use. And what policy-makers need to make decisions, science doesn't yet know. In spite of this uncertainty, some suggest we should act now, on the chance that significant climate change becomes certain. Others point to the opposite edge of that sword: any meaningful preemptive policies would bring only the certainty of prohibitive expense; conflict with Third World development; and declining standards of living, worldwide. I believe we can do better. There is a reasoned middle ground, that matches policy to emerging scientific knowledge -- and reconciles environmental protection to economic development. With every word, with every decision made here, we're also making a committment that is profoundly personal. I think all of 5 us understand, deep inside, how the actions we take now speak to the future. Last week, in my State of the Union address, I spoke of stewardship. I believe it's something we owe our children and grandchildren -- because the earth we stand upon is only borrowed, never owned. So the United States remains committed to a leadership role on environmental issues. In our domestic programs. Our work to forge international agreements. Our assistance to developing and East Bloc nations. And here, by leading the Response Strategies Working Group. Overall, we're already doing more than any other country to understand and address global warming -- in terms of financial and human resources, by more than a factor of ten. I just proposed a budget to our Congress for fiscal 1991 that devotes a total of over [$70] billion to environment-related work. Funding for the U.S. Global Change Research Program will increase by nearly 60 percent, to over $1 billion. That will allow NASA to move forward with its "Mission to Planet Earth" -- and will fund the launch of the first U.S. Earth Observing System, to advance the state of knowledge about the planet we share. We've already taken many steps that bring major benefits in their own right. Steps that make sense on their own merits, and that will also help reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other 6 gases now building up in the atmosphere. Let me outline them very briefly: We want to stabilize -- and reduce wherever we can -- both our energy consumption and our total emissions. So we're pursuing new technology development. Creating a revised Clean Air Act with incentives for industry to find creative, market- driven solutions. Working out a comprehensive review and revision of our National Energy Strategy. And launching a major reforestation initiative to plant a billion trees a year on private land across America. We're also working through diplomatic channels, and through innovative measures like debt-for-nature swaps, to do more than simply reduce global deforestation. We hope to reverse it. The economics of our response strategies to climate change are getting intensive study. We intend to develop real data on the costs of various response strategies, assess new measures, and challenge other nations to follow suit. And we will offer technical support to those who need it. As we work to create policy to manage CO2 and other emissions, we want to encourage the most innovative responses. Wherever possible, we believe that market mechanisms should be applied -- and that policy must be consistent with economic growth and free market principles in all countries. But we will not break the hold of the environmental cold war only through needed dialogue -- through a shared commitment to consensus. 7 If we hope to promote environmental protection and economic growth around the world, it will be important to work with, not against industry. That will mean moving beyond the tradition of command, control, and compliance -- toward a new kind of environmental cooperation. Many industries, in fact, are already providing crucial research and solutions. And a few are already ahead of us. One power-plant management firm, just across the river in Virginia, donated $2 million in 1988 for tree planting in Guatemala -- to compensate for a coal-fired plant it was building in Connecticut. And the company expects to couple tree-planting programs with all of the new power plants now on its drawing boards. Where developing nations are concerned, some suggest we'll have to abandon the laissez-faire, free-market principles that allowed the industrial world to prosper. In fact, we think it's all the more crucial, in the developing countries, to apply the principles of the free market in the service of the environment. To the extent we can accelerate the advancement of these nations, it will take less energy for them to produce wealth: in modern industrial countries, energy use per unit of G.N.P. has declined over time -- steadily, and dramatically. So we need to work with the developing nations: Applying the power of the marketplace, considering technology transfer, and encouraging industry to assist developing nations in making quantum leaps in technologies. That will allow developing 8 nations to grow more quickly and easily -- and may help them avoid making the environmental mistakes we older nations have made. As I said a moment ago, I believe we should make use of what we know. We know that the future of the earth cannot be compromised. We bear a sacred trust in our tenancy here -- and a covenant with those most precious to us: our children, and theirs. We also know of the efficiency of economic incentive -- and that free markets yield the most creative solutions. We must now apply the wisdom of the market, in defense of the environment we Emough! share. It is time to heal this false schism. It is time to put an end to the environmental cold war. Working together, with good faith and earnest dialogue, I believe it can be done. But more important: We know it must be done. Thank you -- and God bless you. ### OFFICE OF THE OFFICE MANAGE PRESIDENT o STATES AND OF THE UNITED EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET WASHINGTON, D.C. 20503 NOTICE: Enclosed are comments from staff members of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). Such comments do not necessarily represent the official position of the Director of OMB or of the Office of Management and Budget. If you wish to have the Director's personal comments, please let me know -- and contact me if you have any questions. David J. Haun Executive Assistant to the Director 11 283106 109727SS Document No. WHITE HOUSE STAFFING MEMORANDUM DATE: 2/1/90 ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY: 2/1/90 5:00 PM PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE SUBJECT: ACTION FYI ACTION FYI VICE PRESIDENT MCCLURE SUNUNU NEWMAN SCOWCROFT PORTER DARMAN ROGICH BATES UNTERMEYER CARD ROGERS CICCONI WINSTON DEMAREST PINKERTON FITZWATER DELAND GRAY BROMLEY HAGIN REMARKS: Please forward any comments directly to Chriss Winston, Rm. 122, x2930, no later than 5:00 PM TODAY, Tuesday, February 1, with a copy to my office. Thank you. RESPONSE: See comments James W. Cicconi Assistant to the President and Deputy to the Chief of Staff Ext. 2702 (Lange/Cawley) February 1, 1989 1990 JAN 32 PM 12: 04 10:45 A.M. [IPCC.DOC] PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS: INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY MONDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 1990 10:15 A.M. Thank you, Dr. Bolin [Bo-leen]. Professor Obasi. Dr. Tolba. Delegates of the World Meteorological Congress, and the United Nations Environment Program. Let me thank and congratulate all of you, for taking on an issue of such great importance. The decisions this organization makes will have a profound effect on the world's environmental and economic policy. In the post-war era, we've produced the most technologically advanced creations of man. We've also gained new understanding -- though still incomplete -- of the most ecologically fragile creations of nature. But unfortunately, somewhere along the way, we picked up a bias, that has harmed both man and nature: a mistaken belief that there is a divergence of interests -- a logical division -- us between the natural world and we who inhabit it. Nothing could be further from the truth -- or more central to the work of this Panel. You are called upon to strike an unprecedented international bargain: a convergence between e This is global environmental policy, and global economic policy, where strons both sides benefit -- and neither is compromised. an You are called upon to end the environmental cold war. deyir your efforts 2 must lay the Improving our around work for This will be possible only if we understand that economic growth and environmental integrity are not contradictory priorities. One reinforces and complements the other. A sound environment is the basis for the continuity and quality of human life and enterprise. And strong economies allow nations to fulfill the obligations of environmental stewardship. Where there is economic strength, such stewardship is considered a necessity. But where there is poverty, it is too often a luxury. For that reason, I believe we must usher in a new era of global cooperation: for environmental protection and economic growth. For intelligent management of industrial and natural and resources, Above all, for sustainable development -- around the world. is strongly committed to The United States believes the I.P.C.C. is the best forum to We don't process of international cooperation want the develop policy on global climate change. We're committed to Ipec international cooperation on this issue. And we consider it do set vital, that the community of nations is drawn together -- in an needs tobe policy ordered, rational way -- to assess the potential for climate Heyer change. The state of the science; the social and economic impacts; and the right response strategies: all are crucial components to a global resolution. The stakes here are very high. There is no question that human activities are changing the atmosphere in unexpected and unprecedented ways. Since the mid- 3 1800s, the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has gone up by 25 percent. What we don't yet understand is the extent of the alterations we've brought about -- and how they're linked to a significant, imminent climate change. Last fall, many clear thinkers -- among them, world leaders -- were citing a significant thinning of sea ice at the poles as evidence that global warming had arrived. Recent observations show that the polar ice sheets are not melting, they're growing in size. I'm not prepared -- academically, or otherwise -- to draw conclusions. But I have noticed something about the scientists drawing the conclusions. Those who see climate change as a clear and present danger represent one distinct minority. Those who discount it completely, represent another minority. But many scientists -- if not most -- are not ready to claim that the extent of global climate change can now be reliably detected -- or predicted. That may be to their credit. When he was observing the fervor of the French Revolution, the English poet William Blake wrote, "The best lack all conviction, while the worst are filled with passionate intensity." Here, too, we are called upon for action based on observation -- not media-driven emotion, or the politics of apocalypse. The decisions being made are too important to be compromised intellectually -- or polarized politically. 4 Questions remain: about the reflective effects of cloud cover, the cooling effects and CO2 absorption of oceans, and other sinks and feedback mechanisms we don't yet understand. Those questions, among others, suggest that we should attend to what is known about climate change and work to know more. Current computer models are marvels of mathematics. Still, they cannot yet be said to represent reality -- and cannot be expected to predict the future. Above all, responsible policy cannot rest on the shifting sands of hypothesis and a chaos of conjecture. Note: several is a mony the In the search for answers, the United States continues to the are week doing also. lead the world. We're seeking hard data and new ways to improve the science. Because what science now knows with confidence, snady 4844 policy-makers can't use. And what policy-makers need to make decisions, science doesn't yet know. In spite of this uncertainty, some suggest we should act now, on the chance that significant climate change becomes certain. Others point to the opposite edge of that sword: any meaningful preemptive policies would bring only the certainty of prohibitive expense; conflict with Third World development; and declining standards of living, worldwide. I believe we can do better. There is a reasoned middle ground, that matches policy to emerging scientific knowledge -- and reconciles environmental protection to economic development. With every word, with every decision made here, we're also making a committment that is profoundly personal. I think all of " This part is not very clear, Is The intention to say So much remains unknown That it is not possible to evaluate the effict of policy a term was my degree of confidence" 5 us understand, deep inside, how the actions we take now speak to the future. Last week, in my State of the Union address, I spoke of stewardship. I believe it's something we owe our children and grandchildren -- because the earth we stand upon is only borrowed, never owned. So the United States remains committed to a leadership role on environmental issues. In our domestic programs. Our work to 1 forge international agreements. Our assistance to developing and East Bloc nations. And here, by leading the Response Strategies Working Group. Overall, we're already doing more than any other country to understand and address global warming -- in terms of financial and human resources, by more than a factor of ten. I just proposed a budget to our Congress for fiscal 1991 an increase of $2 that devotes X total of over [$70] billion to environment-related programs work Funding for the U.S. Global Change Research Program will increase by nearly 60 percent, to over $1 billion. That will allow NASA to move forward with its "Mission to initiate the Planet Earth" -- and will fund the launch of the first U.S. Earth in cooperation with Europe and Japan, Observing System, to advance the state of knowledge about the planet we share. We've already taken many steps that bring major benefits in their own right. Steps that make sense on their own merits, and that will also help reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other 6 gases now building up in the atmosphere. Let me outline them very briefly: increase the efficiency of We want to stabilize and reduce wherever we can both use Thus reduce total our energy consumption and our total emissions. So we're pursuing new technology development. Creating a revised Clean Air Act with incentives for industry to find creative, market- driven solutions. Working out a comprehensive review and revision of our National Energy Strategy. And launching a major reforestation initiative to plant a billion trees a year on private land across America. We're also working through diplomatic channels, and through innovative measures like debt-for-nature swaps, to do more than simply reduce global deforestation. We hope to reverse it. The economics of our response strategies to climate change are getting intensive study. We intend to develop real data on the costs of various response strategies, assess new measures, and challenge other nations to follow suit. And we will offer technical support to those who need it. As we work to create policy to on manage CO2 and other emissions, we want to encourage the most innovative responses. Wherever possible, we believe that market mechanisms should be applied -- and that policy must be consistent with economic growth and free market principles in all countries. But we will Develop effective and acceptable solutions break the hold of the environmental cold war only through dialogue -- through a shared commitment to consensus. 7 If we hope to promote environmental protection and economic growth around the world, it will be important to work with, not against industry. That will mean moving beyond the tradition of command, control, and compliance -- toward a new kind of environmental cooperation. Many industries, in fact, are already providing crucial research and solutions. And a few are already ahead of us. One power-plant management firm, just across the river in Virginia, donated $2 million in 1988 for tree planting in the emissions of Guatemala -- to compensate for a coal-fired plant it was building in Connecticut. And the company expects to couple tree-planting programs with all of the new power plants now on its drawing boards. Where developing nations are concerned, some suggest we'll have to abandon the laissez-faire, free-market principles that allowed the industrial world to prosper. In fact, we think it's all the more crucial, in the developing countries, to apply the principles of the free market in the service of the environment. To the extent we can accelerate the advancement of these nations, it will take less energy for them to produce wealth: in modern industrial countries, energy use per unit of G.N.P. has declined over time -- steadily, and dramatically. So we need to work with the developing nations: Applying the power of the marketplace, considering technology transfer, and encouraging industry to assist developing nations in making quantum leaps in technologies. That will allow developing 8 nations to grow more quickly and easily -- and may help them avoid making the environmental mistakes we older nations have made. As I said a moment ago, I believe we should make use of what we know. We know that the future of the earth cannot be compromised. We bear a sacred trust in our tenancy here -- and a covenant with those most precious to us: our children, and theirs. We also know of the efficiency of economic incentive -- and that free markets yield the most creative solutions. We must now apply the wisdom of the market, in defense of the environment we share. It is time to heal this false schism. It is time to put an end to the environmental cold war. Working together, with good faith and earnest dialogue, I believe it can be done. But more important: We know it must be done. Thank you -- and God bless you. # # # Document No. 109727SS WHITE HOUSE STAFFING MEMORANDUM DATE: 2/1/90 ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY: 2/1/90 5:00 PM PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE SUBJECT: ACTION FYI ACTION FYI VICE PRESIDENT MCCLURE SUNUNU NEWMAN SCOWCROFT PORTER DARMAN ROGICH BATES UNTERMEYER CARD ROGERS CICCONI WINSTON DEMAREST PINKERTON FITZWATER DELAND GRAY BROMLEY HAGIN REMARKS: Please forward any comments directly to Chriss Winston, Rm. 122, x2930, no later than 5:00 PM TODAY, Tuesday, February 1, with a copy to my office. Thank you. RESPONSE: Please comments intext memo It 9d / NAS 06 James W. Cicconi D. Allan Bromley Assistant to the President Director, OSTP and Deputy to the Chief of Staff Ext. 2702 GENERAL POINTS ON THE PRESIDENT'S IPCC REMARKS 1. This is a unique opportunity for the President to establish clearly the continuity, direction and strength of the U.S. program relating to climate change. the Watkins-Reilly memo emphasized this; the DPC Working Group endorsed it, but this draft does not take adequate advantage of this opportunity for the President to reaffirm U.S. leadership in addressing climate change on the basis of sound science and sound economics, as well as concrete actions already taken. 2. The President should use the occasion of this talk to build upon his Malta announcement and discussion with President Gorbachev and now announce that he is inviting a small but representative cross-section of the world's most senior science, economics and environmental officials to participate in a seminar in Washington April 18-19, where he intends to participate personally in the discussions and educate himself on these matters. In hosting this seminar, it is his intention to improve the quality and understanding of the analytic tools and data required to address the problems of climate change; to sensitize the science, economics and environmental research communities to each other's activities, uncertainties and problem areas; and to at least begin developing an international research plan that would draw upon the experience, expertise and data of all the participating countries in addressing the gaps and uncertainties remaining in our understanding of the science and economics of global change. It is his clear intent that this seminar break new ground in bringing the scientific and economic aspects of global change into close interaction and that the results of the seminar would feed into this IPCC process. We would hope to provide new information toward the formulation of sound policy in this area. 3. The President should use this occasion to reinforce his Malta invitation to host the first negotiating session on The Framework Convention. Not to do so would imply a desire to pull back from that invitation and leave the President open to a whole range of unfair charges. D. ALLAN BROMLEY 2/1/90 (Lange/Cawley) February 1, 1989 1990 JAN 32 Fil 12: 04 10:45 A.M. [IPCC.DOC] PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS: INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY MONDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 1990 10:15 A.M. Thank you, Dr. Bolin [Bo-leen]. Professor Obasi. Dr. Tolba. Delegates of the World Meteorological Congress, and the United Nations Environment Program. Let me thank and congratulate all of you, for taking on an issue of such great importance. The decisions this organization makes will have a profound effect on the world's environmental and economic policy. In the post-war era, we've produced the most technologically advanced creations of man. We've also gained new understanding -- though still incomplete - of the most ecologically fragile creations of nature. But unfortunately, somewhere along the way, we picked up a bias, that has harmed both man and nature: a mistaken belief that there is a divergence of interests -- a logical division -- between the natural world and we who inhabit it. Nothing could be further from the truth -- or more central to the work of this Panel. You are called upon to strike an unprecedented international bargain: a convergence between global environmental policy, and global economic policy, where both sides benefit -- and neither is compromised. You are called upon to end the environmental cold war. There is no environmental cold war- internationally, not a good reference 2 This will be possible only if we understand that economic growth and environmental integrity are not contradictory priorities. One reinforces and complements the other. slien is a A sound environment is the basis for the continuity and not new in ialla quality of human life and enterprise. And strong economies allow nations to fulfill the obligations of environmental stewardship. Where there is economic strength, such stewardship is considered a necessity. But where there is poverty, it is too often a what Rswbein in luxury. already For that reason, I believe we must usher in a new era of here global cooperation: for environmental protection and economic growth. For intelligent management of industrial and natural resources. Above all, for sustainable development -- around the world. The United States believes the I.P.C.C. is the best forum to develop policy on global climate change. We're committed to international cooperation on this issue. And we consider it vice vital, that the community of nations is drawn together -- in an ordered, rational way -- to assess the potential for climate change. The state of the science; the social and economic impacts; and the right response strategies: all are crucial components to a global resolution. The stakes here are very high. There is no question that human activities are changing the atmosphere in unexpected and unprecedented ways. Since the mid- 3 1800s, the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has gone up by 25 percent. What we don't yet understand is the extent of the alterations we've brought about -- and how they're linked to a why say any of this Remember, His is a meeting of the Intergovernmental Panel in Climate Change significant, imminent climate change. For eg. sea there good tonefnot in Last fall, many clear thinkers ", among them, world leaders ice were citing a significant thinning of sea ice at the poles as # evidence that global warming had arrived. Recent observations polashmet ice show that the polar ice sheets are not melting, they're growing in size. while both statements are true, they are 2 very different phenomena. hinking them this way is I'm not prepared -- academically, or otherwise -- to draw not quite conclusions. But I have noticed something about the scientists correct + drawing the conclusions. can be Those who see climate change as a clear and present danger misbed represent one distinct minority. Those who discount it completely, represent another minority. But many scientists -- if not most -- are not ready to claim that the extent of global climate change can now be reliably detected -- or predicted. kind of That may be to their credit. insulting, When he was observing the fervor of the French Revolution, see the English poet William Blake wrote, "The best lack all below conviction, while the worst are filled with passionate intensity. Here, too, we are called upon for action based on not observation not media-driven emotion, or the politics of apocalypse. The decisions being made are too important to be compromised intellectually -- or polarized politically. the people at this conference are Here because they case about the issue - many have denated their caseess to the issue. That does not make them "the worst" 4 Questions remain: about the reflective effects of cloud cover, the cooling effects and CO2 absorption of oceans, and group other sinks and feedback mechanisms we don't yet understand. Those questions, among others, suggest that we should attend to the Knoplis what is known about climate change -- and work to know more. Current computer models are marvels of mathematics. Still, they cannot yet be said to represent reality -- and cannot be expected to predict the future. Above all, responsible policy cannot rest on the shifting sands of hypothesis and a chaos of conjecture. rephase In the search for answers, the United States continues to lead the world We're seeking hard data and new ways to improve the science. Because what science now knows with confidence, policy-makers can't use. And what policy-makers need to make decisions, science doesn't yet know. In spite of this uncertainty, some suggest we should act why now, on the chance that significant climate change becomes say certain. Others point to the opposite edge of that sword: any this meaningful preemptive policies would bring only the certainty of this and prohibitive expense; conflict with Third World development; and declining standards of living, worldwide. $ believe we can do better. There is a reasoned middle ground, that matches policy to emerging scientific knowledge -- and reconciles environmental protection to economic development. With every word, with every decision made here, we're also nice making a committment that is profoundly personal. I think all of 5 us understand, deep inside, how the actions we take now speak to the future. Last week, in my State of the Union address, I spoke of nice stewardship. I believe it's something we owe our children and grandchildren -- because the earth we stand upon is only Heoughtful borrowed, never owned. agressive and (intelligent) action So the United States remains committed to a leadership role on environmental issues. In our domestic programs. Our work to forge international agreements. Our assistance to developing and East Bloc nations. And here, by leading the Response Strategies Working Group. Overall, we're already doing more than any other country to understand and address global warming -- in terms of financial and human resources, by more than a factor of ten. I just proposed a budget to our Congress for fiscal 1991 that devotes a total of over [$70] billion to environment-related work. Funding for the U.S. Global Change Research Program will increase by nearly 60 percent, to over $1 billion. That will allow NASA to move forward with its "Mission to together with our partners Planet Earth" -- and the will fund the launch of the first U.S. Earth Observing System, to advance the state of knowledge about the planet we share. du own country, We've already taken many steps that bring major benefits in their own right. Steps that make sense on their own merits, and that will also help reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other These should be rephared to be sensitive to the fact that there will be many very por countries in the audience. 6 gases now building up in the atmosphere. Let me outline them very briefly: We want to stabilize -- and reduce wherever we can -- both our energy consumption and our total emissions. So we're pursuing new technology development. Creating a revised Clean Air Act with incentives for industry to find creative, market- driven solutions. Working out a comprehensive review and revision of our National Energy Strategy. And launching a major reforestation initiative to plant a billion trees a year on private land across America. with our colleague consties in action We're also working through diplomatic channels, and through innovative measures like debt-for-nature swaps, to do more than simply reduce global deforestation. We hope to reverse it. The economics of our response strategies to climate change in urcomety are are getting intensive study We intend to develop real data on the costs of various response strategies, assess new measures, look forward and to sharing other our data nations with to studies follow by other nations. challenge suit. And we will offer technical support to those who need it our international calleagues laster frward to sharring with As we work to create policy to manage CO2 and other emissions, we want to encourage the most innovative responses. Wherever possible, we believe that market mechanisms should be applied -- and that policy must be consistent with economic growth and free market principles in all countries. But we will break dialogue the -- hold through of the a environmental shared commitment cold to war consensus. only through only no war note: we aren't doing flus the mes 7 If we hope to promote environmental protection and economic growth around the world, it will be important to work with, not against industry. That will mean moving beyond the tradition of good command, control, and compliance -- toward a new kind of environmental cooperation. Many industries, in fact, are already providing crucial research and solutions. And a few are already ahead of us. One power-plant management firm, just across the river in not Virginia, donated $2 million in 1988 for tree planting in this in Guatemala -- to compensate for a coal-fired plant it was building speech in Connecticut. And the company expects to couple tree-planting programs with all of the new power plants now on its drawing boards. Where developing nations are concerned, some suggest we'll have to abandon the laissez-faire, free-market principles that allowed the industrial world to prosper. In fact, we think it's all the more crucial, in the developing countries, to apply the principles of the free market in the service of the environment. To the extent we can accelerate the advancement of these nations, it will take less energy for them to produce wealth: in modern industrial countries, energy use per unit of G.N.P. has declined over time -- steadily, and dramatically. look freward to wales with So we need to work with the developing nations: Applying the power of the marketplace, considering technology transfer, to wnle with and encouraging industry to assist developing nations in making quantum leaps in technologies. That will allow developing 8 nations to grow more quickly and easily -- and may help them avoid making the environmental mistakes we older nations have made. As I said a moment ago, I believe we should make use of what ? we know. We know that the future of the earth cannot be compromised. We bear a sacred trust in our tenancy here -- and a nice covenant with those most precious to us: our children, and theirs. We also know of the efficiency of economic incentive -- and that free markets yield the most creative solutions. We must now apply the wisdom of the market, in defense of the environment we share. It is time to heal this false schism. It is time to put no indian an end to the environmental cold war. was Working together, with good faith and earnest dialogue, I believe it can be done. But more important: We know it must be done. Thank you -- and God bless you. # # # more here about luck the good unle of IPCC, etc and wish them well in their entinuing effects to address this very difficult issue