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Originally Processed With FOIA(s): FOIA Number: S S FOIA MARKER This is not a textual record. This is used as an administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential Library Staff. Record Group/Collection: George H.W. Bush Presidential Records Collection/Office of Origin: Speechwriting, White House Office of Series: Speech File Backup Files Subseries: Chron File, 1989-1993 OA/ID Number: 13712 Folder ID Number: 13712-002 Folder Title: Joint Center for Policy Studies 4/4/90 [OA 6895] [1] Stack: Row: Section: Shelf: Position: G 26 20 4 7 STATE DRICALM OF Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory 1 Cyclotron Road Berkeley. California 94720 THE Building 90, Room 1060 FTS 451-5172, Commercial (415) 486-5172 Confirm: FTS 451-6584, Commercial (415)486-6584 DATE: 3/30/90 FAX number: (202) 456-6218 Stephanie Belessey white House Office TO: Room 111 (202)456-7750 Office or Location Phone Number FROM: Hashem Akbani RBL (415)486-4287 Office or Location Phone Number SPECIAL INSTRUCTIONS Total number of pages: 20 LBL Account Number: 4712-01 101 265# TEL NO:4154865172 CENTER 1200-06 787:01 61:60 06.-02-20W HEAT ISLAND PUBLICATIONS (Rev. Date: December 1989) For further information contact: Hashem Akbari Heat Island Project Energy Analysis Program Applied Science Division Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory Berkeley, CA 94720 Tel: (415) 486-4287; FTS: 451-4287 Akbari, H.; Rosenfeld, A.; Taha, H. 1990. "Summer heat islands, urban trees, and white surfaces," Proceedings of American Society of Heating, Refrigeration, and Airconditioning Engineers, Atlanta, Georgia, (February); also Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory Report LBL- 28308. Akbari, H.; Rosenfeld, A.; Taha, H. 1989. "Recent Developments in Heat Island Studies, Technical and Policy", Proceedings of the Workshop on Urban Heat Islands, Berkeley CA, (February 23-24). Akbari, H.; Huang, J.; Martien, P.; Rainer, L.; Rosenfeld, A.; Taha, H. 1988. "The Impact of Summer Heat Islands on Cooling Energy Consumption and Global CO2 Concentration," Proceeding of ACEEE 1988 Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings, Vol 5, pp11-23, Asilomar CA, (August). Akbari, H.; Taha, H.; Rosenfeld, A. 1987. "Vegetation Micro-climate Measurements," Research report to UC/UERG. Akbari, H.; Taha, H.; Martien, P.; Huang, J. 1987. "Strategies for Reducing Urban Heat Islands: Savings, Conflicts, and City's Role," Presented at the First National Conference on Energy Efficient Cooling, San Jose CA, (Oct 21-22). Akbari, H.; Taha, H.; Martien, P.; Rosenfeld, A. 1987. "The Impact of Summer Heat Islands on Residen- tial Cooling Energy Consumption," Presented at the 8th Miami International Conference on Alter- native Energy Sources, Miami FL, (Dec 14-16). Akbari, H.; Taha, H.; Huang, J.; Rosenfeld, A. 1986. "Undoing Summer Heat Island Can Save Giga Watts of Power", Proceeding of ACEEE 1986 Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings, Vol. 2, pp7-22, Santa Cruz, August 17-23, 1986, also Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory Report LBL- 21893, (July). Garbesi, K.; Akbari, H.; Martien, P. (editors) 1989, "Controlling summer heat islands," Proceedings of the Workshop on Saving Energy and Reducing Atmospheric Pollution by Controlling Summer Heat Islands, Berkeley CA, February 23-24, 1989; also Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory Report LBL- 27872. Huang, Y. J.; Akbari, H.: Taha, H. 1990. "The wind-shielding and shading effects of trees on residential heating and cooling requirements," Proceedings of American Society of Heating, Refrigeration, and Airconditioning Engineers, Atlanta, Georgia, (February); also Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory Report LBL- 24131. Auwer2/bed/h_shis/PUBLICATION/pub.dec89 202 265# TEL NO:4154865172 MAR-30-'90 09:20 ID:LBL 90-COPY CENTER -2- Huang, J.; Akbari, H.; Taha, H.; Rosenfeld, A. 1987. "The Potential of Vegetation in Reducing Summer Cooling Load in Residential Buildings," J. of Climate and Applied Meteorology, Vol. 26, No. 9, pp. 1103-1116. also Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory Report LBL-21291, July 1986. Martien, P.; et al. 1989. "Approaches to Using Models of Urban Climates in Building Energy Simula- tion", LBL Draft Report. Rainer, L.; Martien, P.; Taha, H. 1989. "Measurement of Summer Residential Microclimates in Sacramento CA", Proceedings of the Workshop on Urban Heat Islands, Berkeley CA, (February 23-24). Taha, H.; Akbari, H.; Rosenfeld, A. 1989. "Heat Island and Oasis Effects of Vegetative Canopies: Micrometeorological Field Measurements", Submitted to Theoretical and Applied Climatology. Taha, H.; Akbari, H.: Rosenfeld. A.; Huang, J. 1988. "Residential Cooling Loads and the Urban Heat Island: The Effect of Albedo," Energy and Environment, Vol. 23, No. 4, pp. 271-283. Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory Report LBL-24008. Taha, H. 1988. "Site-Specific Heat Island Simulations: Model Development and Application to Microcli- mate Conditions", Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory Report No. 26105, Masters Thesis, University of California at Berkeley. Taha, H. 1988. "Nighttime Air Temperature and the Sky View Factor: A Case Study in San Francisco CA", Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory Report No. 24009. Taha, H.; Akbari, H.; Rosenfeld, A. 1988. "Vegetation Canopy Micro-Climate: A field Project in Davis, California", Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory Report LBL-24593. Selected Popular Articles H. Gilliam, "How we can fight the greenhouse effect," San Francisco Chronicle, July 31, Page 18, 1988. H. Gilliam, "Dangling a carrot to save environment," San Francisco Chronicle, October 16, Pages 19-20, 1988. D. Blum, "Trees may save world from greenhouse effect threat," The Sacramento Bee, November 25, 1988. N. Sampson, "A way to combat greenhouse effect," Minneapolis Star Tribune, October 20, 1988. N. Sampson, "Cool the greenhouse, plant 100 million trees," Los Angeles Times, October 16, Part V, 1988. A. Lipkis, "With a forest for Los Angeles," Los Angeles Times, October 16, Part V, 1988. R. M. Kidder, "Plant a tree, salve a nation," The Christian Science Monitor, November 14, Page 25, 1988. C. Hodge, "Natural heat relief researched: Trees called way to cool, cut cost," The Arizona Republic, July 23, 1988. "November in desert Gardens: Some of the year's best planting days are here. Head for the nursery," Sunset, Page 227, November 1988. Auser2/bed/h_shis/PUBLICATION/pub.dec89 200 265# TEL NO:4154865172 MAR-30-'90 09:21 ID:LBL 90-COPY CENTER -3- - "Trees displace power plants?" The National Urban Forest FORUM, Editor G. A. Moll, Vol 8, No. 4, July/August 1988. J. N. Wilford, "New climate factor: The golf-course effect," New York Times, September 13, Page B8, 1988. fuser2/bed/h_shis/PUBLICATION/pub.dec89 #593 P04 TEL NO:4154865172 MAR-30-'90 09:21 ID:LBL 90-COPY CENTER From "Proceedings of the ACEEE 1986 Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings", Volume 2 "Small Building Technologies", PP 2.7-2.22, Santa Cruz, California. UNDOING UNCOMFORTABLE SUMMER HEAT ISLANDS CAN SAVE GIGAWATTS OF PEAK POWER* Shephanie: Nate data Hashem Akbari, Haider Taha, Joe Huang, and Arthur Rosenfeld on page 2.20 Applied Science Division Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory Harben University of California Berkeley, CA 94720 Abstract Man has created summer heat islands of daily average intensity of 3-5 ° c, adding to discomfort and increasing in air conditioning loads. (For example the Los Angeles basin uses 5 GW of air conditioning, thus tying up $10 billion of power plants and another $5-10 billion in HVAC equipment). We have been studying how to mitigate this heat, with increasing the amount of urban vegeta- tion as an example. We first discuss the major factors that create the heat island, its magnitude and impact on residential cooling energy use, and mitigation techniques. We then simulate building cooling demand as a function of the heat island intensity. Sim- ple heat island energy balance models are used to predict the changes in dry bulb temperatures that are then used as input to DOE-2 hourly simulations. The DOE-2 results enable us to rank measures for preventing the urban heat island. Our preliminary results indicate that planting trees can save as much as 34, 18, and 44% of residential cooling demand on a hot summer day in Sacramento CA, Phoenix AZ, and Los Angeles CA, respectively. The cooling energy savings are 53, 33, and ~ 0%ᵀ. Direct shading of a house itself yields only 11, 6, and 12% savings in peak power in the same locations. I. INTRODUCTION The urban heat island is a well documented urban phenomenon [Landsberg 1981, Lowry 1967]. The larger the city, the more intense is the summer heat island [Oke 1973] and hence the magnitude of discomfort and air conditioning load. For instance for St. Louis, Missouri, the summer heat island intensity is 4° C during nighttime and 1°C at noon [Vukovich et al. 1979]. Researchers have started to look at the causes and implications of the heat island, and have correlated its magnitude to the activities within and physical The work described in this report was funded by the Assistant Secretary for Conservation and Renewable Energy, Office of Building and Community System, Buildings Systems Division of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC0376SF00098. t Study of the air conditioning control strategies for Los Angeles have yielded in 2 saving of 7% in peak power and 88% in the annual cooling energy by simply switching from the present indoor temperature control in "smark" duul outdoor/indoor temperature control. 2.7 TEL NO:4154865172 MAR-30-'90 09:22 ID:LBL 90-COPY CENTER S0d 265# Akbari et al. reflection and scattering, but the urban surface albedo (~ 15%) is lower than the Akbari et al. characteristics of the city, such as its rate of anthropogenic heat release [Torrance and Shum 1975], concentration of pollutants [Bennett and Saab 1982, Bornstein 1968, Vukovich et al. 1979), and thermal storage capacity [Myrup 1969, Atwater 1972]. The urban energy balance has been related to the canyon geometry of city streets [Nunez and Oke 1976] and to urban physical characteristics [Ojima and Moriyama 1982]; its nocturnal intensity has been related to the sky view factor [Barring and Mattsson 1985]. In fact, all the above variables work together to create the urban heat island, which makes it desirable to closely investigate their interactions SO as to isolate the important causes and, if at all possible, to avoid them. In the last two decades researchers have attempted to simulate the urban heat island with one, two and three dimensional models. For an overview of the heat island history and models, the reader is referred to [Landsberg 1981 and Bornstein 1984b]. On a qualitative level, traditional and scientific observations indicate there are simple tools to alleviate the microclimate problems associated with cities. Traditional urban architects in hot climates have used whitewashed exterior walls, central courtyards, fountains, plants, windtowers, air scoops, masonry and heavy materials to control the quality of the indoor and outdoor micro-climates. The effects of these simple techniques, however, have never been quantified, nor do they specifically address changing the microclimate of an entire urban area. The objective of our work is to quantify the potential of strategies such as evapotranspiration and shading to mitigate the summer heat island and reduce cooling energy use. We have used the DOE-2.1C program to simulate the reduc- tion in cooling energies due to the application of these strategies. II. THE HEAT ISLAND PHENOMENON The best way to understand the formation of urban heat island is to look at the basic surface energy balance equation: = L'S Extended Page Akbari et al. III. MODELING A. Shade Two shading scenarios are modeled, the addition of one tree or three trees near each house. We have placed the trees on the west and south sides of the house so as to maximize shading effects and to minimize the peak power consump- tion of the house. The tree shading model is restricted to the reduction of the solar radiation on the building envelope, while in actuality, trees will also affect the ambient temperatures, wind speeds and humidity ratios. Those changes are simulated in other models we have developed that will be explained later. We have assumed that each mature tree has a top view projection area of 50 m², and that the suburban housing density is one house per 500 m² of land. There- fore, an increase of one tree per house is equivalent to a 10% increase in the urban tree canopy. We have modeled the location of the trees relative to the prototype house such that the canopy does not overlap the roof and extends from 3 to 10 meters above ground surface (see Figure 1). This location maximizes window shading without seriously reducing night sky radiation from the roof. B. Wind Modification Depending on its position upwind of a reference point, a barrier might increase or reduce the wind speed and turbulence. In our work, we have assumed that the trees. are close enough to the building envelope SO that their effect is to retard the wind flow. At the city scale, the effect of the increased roughness is to decrease the wind speed at the surface. In both cases we have used a wind speed reduction formula derived by McGinn in his study of the vegetation and canopy effects at Davis, California [McGinn 1982]. C. Evapotranspiration Estimating the effect of evapotranspiration of trees on the ambient conditions requires the solution of the transport equation in three dimensions. The authors are not aware of a verified model to analyze moisture migration and its effect on ambient conditions. To get an early estimate of this effect, we have devised a simplified model which assumes adiabatic evaporation. Given the unperturbed ambient condition as available from weather tapes and the added amount of tree cover, we use agricultural data to estimate the evapotranspiration rate as a func- tion of insolation and dry-bulb temperature. The heat of evaporation is assumed to be extracted from the ambient air. The air volume (per unit width) contribut- ing to this process is estimated as the product of the wind speed and the urban mixing height which is calculated for each hour. The mixing height is a function of many ambient variables including wind speed, anthropogenic heat release, heat Cost of Avoided Peak Power (CAPP) = Total Investment ($) Avoided Peak Power (kW) normalized for life of & nominal power plant (normally 20 years). 2.11 90d 265# TEL NO:4154865172 CENTER 1200-06 787:01 £2:60 Akbari et al. island intensity, rural lapse rate upwind of city and surface roughness. We have assumed a complete mixing of ambient air in this volume. Details of this model are described in [Huang 1986a]. An example of the original and modified dry bulb temperature for some trees covers for Sacramento is shown in Figure 2. D. Prototypical House To estimate the energy savings due to increased tree canopy, we used DOE- 2.1C to calculate the air conditioning usage for a prototypical house in three cities under varying canopy conditions. The prototypical house is a one story house with 143 m2 of floor area and a window-to-floor ratio of 10%. A 0.6 m roof overhang is assumed on the south. Construction details are standard U.S. building practices and the operating conditions as well as the infiltration rates are based on statistical surveys of current typical houses [NAHB 1979]. The house has R=3.34 W/(m²K) roof insulation, R=1.95 wall insulation, and single-pane windows. The assumed equipment is an air conditioner of SEER 9.2 and capacity dependent on the climate. For peak air conditioning demands see Tables 1 and 2. Thermostat is set at 25.5 C for cooling and it is assumed that the occupants or a "smart" control system turns off the air conditioner and open the windows whenever the temperature and enthalpy of the outside air is lower than that of the indoors, and cooling loads can be met by ambient air at 10 air changes per hour. To account for venetian blinds, curtains, etc, a shading coefficient of 0.63 is assumed for all windows. The shading on the south and west windows due to trees is calculated automatically by the DOE-2.1C program. This house has been used in many pre- vious studies to simulate energy performance of houses in different climates. The details of this prototype house are fully explained in [Huang 1986b]. IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS Two sets of analyses were performed for one tree or three trees per house. The addition of three trees per house will probably cancel out the urban heat island, restore the original rural climate, and perhaps even introduce an "oasis" effect. A preliminary parametric analysis performed for Los Angeles confirmed that trees shading the west window produced the largest peak power savings.* The simulation results for both the one-tree and three-trees cases in the three locations are presented in Table 1. It may be surprising that Table 1 shows only 65 cooling hours per year for the base case house with no additional trees in Los Angeles (all of which, incidentally, occur on only 10 days). This low number is due to our assumption of diligent occupants or a "smart control" that opens windows a The impact of tree location on the peak power of a typical house in Los Angeles with "smart" air-conditioning control is as follows: Tree location none west south east Peak kW 4.46 4.03 4.41 4.32 The peak power reduction due to trees on the south is relatively small because it is assumed that a south overhang already exists. 2.12 202 265# TEL NO:4154865172 MAR-30-'90 09:24 ID:LBL 90-COPY CENTER Akbari et al. to allow natural venting whenever the outside conditions are suitable. If we had assumed air conditioning control without natural ventilation, the number of cool- ing hours would have been increased more than tenfold (see Appendix; a more detailed description of air conditioning control strategies and their effects on energy and power consumption is the subject of a forthcoming paper). The following observations are made from Table 1: Percentage power savings potential is highest for Los Angeles with 44%, fol- lowed by Sacramento with 34%, and Phoenix with only 18%. In terms of absolute power saved, the potential is highest in Sacramento with 2.44 kW, second in Los Angeles with 1.96 kW, and finally Phoenix with 1.57 kW. Percentage energy savings potential is highest for Sacramento with 53% fol- lowed by Phoenix with 33%. Potential energy savings in Los Angeles is negligible. As we discussed earlier, most of cooling energy use in Los Angeles can be overcome by ventilation cooling. In all cases the effect of having two trees to the south and one to the west (=30% cover) is about twice as effective as a single tree on the west (10% cover), thus clearly showing the importance of orientation in trees placement. In Los Angeles, 30% cover reduces the number of cooling hours by 84% bringing them down to only 10 hours, or one day during the whole cooling , season. In Sacramento, the curtailment is of the order of 56%, down to 390 hours from an original of 904 cooling hours. In Phoenix, the reduction is 17%, down to 3028 hours. The net effect of wind reduction on the cooling load (both peak and energy) is negligible 1%. The Present Value (PV) of the power and energy saved by planting trees for two scenarios are shown in Table 2. These two scenarios are based on the age of trees and their prices; we expect these two cases provide upper and lower limits for cost of conserved energy and power. For the first case we assume planting see- dlings at a price of $5 per tree [McPherson 1984, p. 173]; it takes 10 years for the seedling to mature [McPherson 1984, p. 159]. For the second case, we assume planting 5-ft trees at a price of $60 per tree including labor costs [McPherson 1984, page 173]; we estimate that it would take 7 years for the 5-ft tree to grow to full size. We add this cost to the water cost in order to obtain the total cost of each tree. The water consumption of a beech tree is estimated to be ~ 1 kg/h [Berustzky, 1982]. This would translate to an annual consumption of ~ 2000 gal/year. Current prices of water varies between 7-10 cent per hundred gallons*. Therefore, total water consumption of a tree is about $2/yr. In addition to the above, we have made the following assumptions: *The current price of water from the San Francisco East Bay Municipal Utility District is 63.5 cents per one hundred cubic feet: 2.13 80d 265# TEL NO:4154865172 MAR-30-'90 09:25 ID:LBL 90-COPY CENTER Akbari et al. The energy and power conservation potential of trees during the growing period is neglected. As trees mature, their roots grow deep in the ground and for most parts of the country they will become self-sufficient in absorbing water from ground; they do not need further watering. Even though the average life span of a tree is high (100 years) we have assumed here a time horizon of 20 years, same as an average power plant. Interest rate is assumed to be 7% real. The results from this table are encouraging. The cost of conserved energy (CCE) and avoided peak power (CAPP) is between 0.3 to 4.3 e/kWh and 19 to 217 $/kW for all three locations studied. The present value of conserved energy is much higher in Phoenix and Sacramento than Los Angeles. The high but indeter- minate values of conserved cooling energy in Los Angeles is due to use of "smart" control algorithm where the initial annual air conditioning energy use is only 359 kWh. It is interesting to note that the average price of electricity is about 8 c/kWh, and major utilities in California offer a rebate of $100-$300 for each kW of peak power avoided. Therefore, even with the upper limit cost of trees the CCE and CAPP seem extremely appealing. To obtain the actual power savings in each of these locations, three essential data are required. This data include the number of households that may undergo tree planting project, the saturation and average size of actual air conditioning units used in houses, and the coincident factors for use of air conditioning units for each location. Presently, we do not have enough data to make a detailed cal- culation. Alternatively, we assume that one million air-conditioned houses in Los Angeles, and 250,000 each in Sacramento and Phoenix will plant trees. Table 1 can then be transformed into Table 3. The results obtained for power and energy savings in each location is encouraging; in Los Angeles ~ 2 GW (equivalent to 2 standard GW power plants) could be unloaded. Peak power savings in Sacramento and Phoenix are about 0.6 GW and 0.4 GW, respectively. These encouraging results warrants further investigation of this subject. V. SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS The major factors that create the heat island, its magnitude and impact on residential cooling energy use, and mitigation techniques are discussed. We have correlated the effect of planting trees on residential cooling energy and power, with specific case studies for three U.S. cities. The effects of two selected strategies (evapotranspiration and shading) and their potential in reducing the heat-island induced cooling load have been simulated. Simulations were performed using DOE-2 building energy analysis program, in conjunction with some simple models to predict the effect of planting trees on the atmospheric dry-bulb temperature and humidity ratio. These simulations were done for three locations: Sacramento CA, Los Angeles CA, and Phoenix AZ. The location of trees is optimized with respect to the house so as to maximize the effects of shading and evaporative cooling. 2.14 60d 265# TEL NO:4154865172 MAR-30-'90 09:25 ID:LBL 90-COPY CENTER Akbari et al. Our work suggests potential energy and power savings can be realized by use the simple strategy of planting trees.* In the cities studied, the effect of planting three trees around the house can save 18%-44% of the peak power, and up to 53% of the total annual cooling electricity use. The present value of the saved peak power and the saved electricity are 29-217 $/kW and 0.3-4.3 e/kWh for three seedling or three trees. Planting three trees for the approximately one mil- lion houses in the Los Angeles area can save up to 2 GW peak power. For the other two cities, 250,000 trees can save ~ 1 GW. At this stage, we believe the following topics deserve further investigation: 1. Study the effect of changing the thermal mass of building materials. 2. Study the effect of changing the city albedo by substituting concrete pave- ments for asphalts, and by painting roofs and city surfaces in light colors. 3. Refine the evapotranspiration model used in this work and analyze its effect on temperature depression. 4. Refine the evapotranspiration model to consider differences between local and global effects. Although shading is modeled on a local level, evapotranspira- tion has been modeled assuming that the city is uniformly vegetated at the given cover percentage. We need to know the effect of spatial variations in vegetation canopy on the overall global as well as the local distribution of temperature and humidity ratio. 5. Gather observational data to validate various aspects of the heat island model. This data should include quantification of urban and neighborhood variations in surface conditions, including amounts of vegetative cover, albedo, etc., along with recorded variations in microclimate conditions. REFERENCES Barring L. and Mattsson J.O, 1985, "Canyon Geometry, Street Temperature and Urban Heat Island in Malmo, Sweden", in Journal of Climatology, 5, pp.433-444. Bernatzky, Aloys, 1982, "The Contribution of Trees and Greenspaces to a Town Climate," in Energy and Buildings, 5, pp.1-10. Bornstein R., 1984b, "Urban Climate Models: Nature , Limitations and Applica- tions," Reprints from WMO Technical Conference on Urban Climatology and its Application with Special Reference to Tropical Areas, Mexico City. Huang J., Taha H. and Akbari H. and Rosenfeld H, 1986a, "The Potential of Vegetation in Reducing Summer Cooling Loads in Residential Buildings," LBL Report No. 21291. Huang J., Ritschard R. et al., 1986b, "Affordable Housing through Energy Con- servation," LBL Report 16343. A byproduct of our simulations are data showing that additional savings are possible by improving our habits or air conditioner control; Le: opening windows ("smart" control) instead of turning on or leaving on the air conditioner ("dumb" control) when the outdoor conditions are suitable and pleasant. 2.15 011 265# TEL NO:4154865172 MAR-30-'90 09:26 ID:LBL 90-COPY CENTER south tree representation in DOE-2 simulations. 3-7m Akbari et al. Knowles R., 1982, Sun, Rhythm, Form, MIT Press, Cambridge Mass. - TT M Extended Page 10. 1 95 Base 90 10% cover 85 25% cover Temperature (F) 80 75 70 65 60 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Hour Figure 2. Outdoor dry-bulb temperatures for Sacramento, as simulated for July 27, 1980. The "base" curve shows the original temperature at the present level of vegetation. The subsequent curves show the new temperatures resulting from the evaporative cooling effect of trees, as produced by the evapotranspiration model. 2.19 #593 P11 TEL NO:4154865172 MAR-30-'90 09:27 ID:LBL 90-COPY CENTER Table 1. Peak power and energy savings per house resulting from planting trees. All entries except the base- case column are savings compared to that column. Note that wind modification contributes little, and evapo- transpiration overshadowes direct shading. Note that the macro-effect of 10% coverage (1 tree/house) is to avoid about 1 kW/tree; for 3 trees/house we can avoid 2/3 kW/tree. Number of additional trees None 1 tree = 10% cover 3 trees = 30% cover Energy savings Energy savings TEL NO:4154865172 Base case shade shade shade+wind shade shade shade+wind energy use only +wind +evapotrans. only +wind +evapotrans. Location (not savings) (4) (A) (4) (% 4) (4) (4) A (%A) Sacramento Note kW 7.10 0.66 0.72 1.24 17.5 0.76 0.81 2.44 34.4 Cooling hrs 904 36 29 165 18.3 64 95 514 56.9 2.20 kWh/yr 1420 122 114 343 24.2 225 218 757 53.3 CENTER Phoenix kW 8.87 0.47 0.53 0.80 9.0 0.53 0.57 1.57 17.7 Cooling hrs 3647 18 16 157 4.3 86 79 619 17.0 kWh/yr 6911 208 208 873 12.6 417 418 2289 33.1 09:28 ID:LBL 90-COPY Los Angeles kW 4.48 0.43 0.45 0.90 20.2 0.53 0.55 1.98 43.9 Cooling hrs 65 12 8 43 68.2 18 17 55 84.6 kWh/yr 359 ~0 ~0 0 ~0 NO ~0 ~ 0 ~O MAR-30-'90 Table 2. Present value of saved peak power and cooling energy in 1986 dollar for savings of Table ]. Each entry shows two value corresponding to planting seedlings or 5-ft trees at $5 and $60, respectively. Water consumption for a growing tree is estimated to average to ~ $2/yr for 10 years for the seedling #594 P02 and 7 years for the 5-ft tree. A time horizon (n) of 20 years for trees and a discount rate (d) of 7% real is assumed for these calculations. Number of additional trees None 1 tree = 10% coverage 3 trees = 30% coverage Present Value Present Value Base case power use shade shade shade+wind shade shade shade+wind Location (kW) only +wind +evapotrans only +wind +evapotrans TEL NO: 0:4154865172 Sacramento 7.10 CAPP¹ ($/kW) 36-172 33-158 19-92 93-449 88-421 29-140 CCE+ (c/kWh) 1.9-8.8 2.0-9.4 0.7-3.1 3.1-14.3 3.2-14.8 0.9-4.3 Phoenix 8.87 CAPP ($/kW) 50-242 45-214 30-142 13-1-643 124-598 45-217 2.21 CCE (d/kWh) 1.1-5.2 1.1-5.2 0.3-1.2 1.7-7.7 1.7-7.7 0.3-1.4 Los Angeles 4.46 CAPP ($/kW) 55-264 53-253 26-126 134-643 129-620 36-174 CCE (d/kWh) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Total Investment ($) MAR-30-'90 09:31 ID:LBL 90-COPY CENTER Cost of Avoided Peak Power (CAPP) = normalized for life of a nominal power plant (nor- Saved Power (kW) mally 20 years). Annualized Investment ($/yr) Cost of Conserved Energy (CCE) = Saved Annual Energy (kWh/yr) d Annualized Investment = Total Investment X 1-(1+d)" Table 3. Peak power and energy savings resulting from planting trees near 1,000,000 houses in Los Angeles and 250,000 houses in Sacramento and Phoenix. All entries except the base-case column are savings compared to that column. #594 P03 No. of trees Base-case 1 tree = 10% COV. 3 trees = 30% COV. per house (not Savings Savings Location Savings) shade shade+wind shade+wind+evap. shade shade+wind shade+wind+evap. SACRAMENTO A = A = A = A = (%) = = A = A = (%) MW 1775 165 180 310 17.5 190 202 610 34.4 GWh/yr 355 30.5 28.5 85.8 24.2 56.3 54.5 189.3 53.3 PHOENIX TEL NO: NO:4154865172 MW 2,218 118 133 200 9.0 133 143 393 17.7 GWh/yr 1,728 52 52 218 12.6 104 104 572 33.1 LOS ANGELES MW 4460 430 450 900 20.2 530 550 1960 43.9 GWh/yr 359 ~ 0 ~ 0 ~ 0 ~ 0 ~ 0 ~ 0 ~ 0 ~ 0 2.22 CENTER 09:31 ID:LBL 90-COPY MAR-30-'90 MAR-30-'90 09:32 ID:LBL 90-COPY CENTER TEL NO: 4154865172 #594 P04 Akbari et al. Our work suggests potential energy and power savings can be realized by use the simple strategy of planting trees.* In the cities studied, the effect of planting three trees around the house can save 18%-44% of the peak power, and up to 53% of the total annual cooling electricity use. The present value of the saved peak power and the saved electricity are 29-217 $/kW and 0.3-4.3 c/kWh for three seedling or three trees. Planting three trees for the approximately one mil- lion houses in the Los Angeles area can save up to 2 GW peak power. For the other two cities, 250,000 trees can save ~ 1 GW. At this stage, we believe the following topics deserve further investigation: 1. Study the effect of changing the thermal mass of building materials. 2. Study the effect of changing the city albedo by substituting concrete pave- ments for asphalts, and by painting roofs and city surfaces in light colors. 3. Refine the evapotranspiration model used in this work and analyze its effect on temperature depression. 4. Refine the evapotranspiration model to consider differences between local and global effects. Although shading is modeled on a local level, evapotranspira- tion has been modeled assuming that the city is uniformly vegetated at the given cover percentage. We need to know the effect of spatial variations in vegetation canopy on the overall global as well as the local distribution of temperature and humidity ratio. 5. Gather observational data to validate various aspects of the heat island model. This data should include quantification of urban and neighborhood variations in surface conditions, including amounts of vegetative cover, albedo, etc., along with recorded variations in microclimate conditions. REFERENCES Barring L. and Mattsson J.O, 1985, "Canyon Geometry, Street Temperature and Urban Heat Island in Malmo, Sweden", in Journal of Climatology, 5, pp.433-444. Bernatzky, Aloys, 1982, "The Contribution of Trees and Greenspaces to a Town Climate," in Energy and Buildings, 5, pp.1-10. Bornstein R., 1984b, "Urban Climate Models: Nature Limitations and Applica- tions," Reprints from WMO Technical Conference on Urban Climatology and its Application with Special Reference to Tropical Areas, Mexico City. Huang J., Taha H. and Akbari H. and Rosenfeld H, 1986a, "The Potential of Vegetation in Reducing Summer Cooling Loads in Residential Buildings," LBL Report No. 21291. Huang J., Ritschard R. et al., 1986b, "Affordable Housing through Energy Con- servation," LBL Report 16343. A byproduct of our simulations are data showing that additional savings are possible by improving our habits or air conditioner control; i.e; opening windows ("smart" control) instead of turning on or leaving on the air conditioner ("dumb" control) when the outdoor conditions are suitable and pleasant. 2.15 MAR-30-'90 09:33 ID:LBL 90-COPY CENTER TEL NO: 4154865172 #594 P05 Akbari et al. Knowles R., 1982, Sun, Rhythm, Form, MIT Press, Cambridge Mass. Landsberg, H.E., 1970, "Man Made Climatic Changes," in Science, Washington, 170, pp.1265-1274. Landsberg, H.E., 1981, The Urban Climate, Academic Press, N.Y. Brazil. Lombardo Magda, 1985, Ilha de Calor nas Metropoles, Editora Hucitec, Sao Paulo, Lowry, W.P., 1967, "The Climate of Cities," in Cities, Readings from Scientific American, San Francisco, 1973. McGinn C., 1982, Micro Climate and Energy Use in Suburban Tree Canopies, Ph.D. Thesis, University of California at Davis. National Association of Home Builders Research Foundation, Inc., 1981, "Sus- tained Builder Survey Responses Result in Data Bank of Over One Million Houses," NAHB Research Foundation, Inc., Rockville MD. Nunez M. and Oke T.R., 1976, "The Energy Balance of an Urban Canyon," in Journal of Applied Meteorology, 16, pp.11-19. Ojima O. and Moriyama M., 1982, "Earth Surface Heat Balance Changes Caused by Urbanization," in Energy and Buildings, 4, pp.99-114 Oke, T.R., 1973, "City Size and the Urban Heat Island," in Atmospheric Environ- ment,7, pp.769-779. Torrance K.E. and Shum J.S.W., 1975, "Time-Varying Energy Consumption as a Factor in Urban Climate," in Atmospheric Environment, 10, pp.329-337. APPENDIX. THE ENERGY SAVING POTENTIALS OF "SMART" WINDOW VENTILATION For most places in the U.S., ventilation cooling is practical during much of the cooling season. The energy savings can be observed in Table A.1 where two algorithms, mechanical cooling "dumb" and a combination of ventilation and mechanical cooling "smart" are compared. Use of the "smart" algorithm has resulted in savings of 375 watts of peak power. The reason for this saving is that the building is pre-cooled as its mass exposed to the cool ventilation air. There- fore, although the loads are similar in both "smart" and "dumb" modes, the former requires less cooling power. In our simulations, we have assumed the "smart" option to avoid overpredicting the energy savings for vegetation, although We realize that windows in most homes would not be operated in this optimal fashion. This preliminary result on the savings of "smart" window ventilation is of great importance to utilities in Los Angeles area. It shows that by changing the control of the air conditioning unit from only the indoor temperature ("dumb" control) to the dual control by both indoor and outdoor temperature ("smart" control) the peak power and annual cooling energy use will be reduced by 7% and 88%, respectively. 2.16 MAR-30-'90 09:33 ID:LBL 90-COPY CENTER TEL NO:4154865172 #594 P06 Akbari et al. Table A.1 Comparison of air conditioning without ventilation ("dumb") to combined air conditioning and ventilation with "smart" controls in Los Angeles. Control strategy Peak kW Hours Cooling (annual) kWh/year "dumb" 4.83 752 886 "smart" 4.46 65 108 2.17 MAR-30-'90 09:34 ID:LBL 90-COPY CENTER TEL NO:4154865172 #594 P07 south tree representation in DOE-2 simulations. 3-7m 3m 50m2 north 8.5m 16.7m south and west trees representation. N means of planar surfaces that approximate the tree effect. Figure 1. Schematic sketch of the simulated tree canopy. It is simulated by 2.18 CANADA THE OF ALSORMA Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory 1 Cyclotron Road Berkeley, California 94720 07.1.13 Building 90, Room 1060 FTS 451-5172, Commercial (415) 486-5172 Confirm: FTS 451-6584, Commercial (415) 486-6584 DATE: 3/30/90 FAX number: (202) 456-6218 Stephanie Beleosey white House Office TO: Room III (202)456-7750 Office or Location Phone Number FROM: Hashem akbani RBL (415)486-4287 Office or Location Phone Number SPECIAL INSTRUCTIONS Total number of pages: 20 LBL Account Number: 4712-01 101 265# TEL NO:4154865172 MAR-30-'90 09:14 ID:LBL 90-COPY CENTER HEAT ISLAND PUBLICATIONS (Rev. Date: December 1989) For further information contact: Hashem Akbari Heat Island Project Energy Analysis Program Applied Science Division Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory Berkeley, CA 94720 Tel: (415) 486-4287; FTS: 451-4287 Akbari, H.; Rosenfeld, A.; Taha, H. 1990. "Summer heat islands, urban trees, and white surfaces," Proceedings of American Society of Heating, Refrigeration, and Airconditioning Engineers, Atlanta, Georgia, (February); also Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory Report LBL- 28308. Akbari, H.; Rosenfeld, A.; Taha, H. 1989. "Recent Developments in Heat Island Studies, Technical and Policy", Proceedings of the Workshop on Urban Heat Islands, Berkeley CA, (February 23-24). Akbari, H.; Huang, J.; Martien, P.; Rainer, L.; Rosenfeld, A.; Taha, H. 1988. "The Impact of Summer Heat Islands on Cooling Energy Consumption and Global CO2 Concentration," Proceeding of ACEEE 1988 Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings, Vol 5, pp11-23, Asilomar CA, (August). Akbari, H.; Taha, H.; Rosenfeld, A. 1987. "Vegetation Micro-climate Measurements," Research report. to UC/UERG. Akbari, H.; Taha, H.; Martien, P.; Huang, J. 1987. "Strategies for Reducing Urban Heat Islands: Savings, Conflicts, and City's Role," Presented at the First National Conference on Energy Efficient Cooling, San Jose CA, (Oct 21-22). Akbari, H.; Taha, H.; Martien, P.; Rosenfeld, A. 1987. "The Impact of Summer Heat Islands on Residen- tial Cooling Energy Consumption," Presented at the 8th Miami International Conference on Alter- native Energy Sources, Miami FL, (Dec 14-16). Akbari, H.; Taha, H.; Huang, J.; Rosenfeld, A. 1986. "Undoing Summer Heat Island Can Save Giga Watts of Power", Proceeding of ACEEE 1986 Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings, Vol. 2, pp7-22, Santa Cruz, August 17-23, 1986, also Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory Report LBL- 21893, (July). Garbesi, K.; Akbari, H.; Martien, P. (editors) 1989. "Controlling summer heat islands," Proceedings of the Workshop on Saving Energy and Reducing Atmospheric Pollution by Controlling Summer Heat Islands, Berkeley CA, February 23-24, 1989; also Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory Report LBL- 27872. Huang, Y. J.; Akbari, H.; Taha, H. 1990. "The wind-shielding and shading effects of trees on residential heating and cooling requirements," Proceedings of American Society of Heating, Refrigeration, and Airconditioning Engineers, Atlanta, Georgia, (February); also Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory Report LBL- 24131. Auser2/bed/h_ahis/PUBLICATION/pub.dec89 202 2652 TEL NO:4154865172 MAR-30-'90 09:14 ID:LBL 90-COPY CENTER -2- Huang, J.; Akbari, H.; Taha, H.; Rosenfeld, A. 1987. "The Potential of Vegetation in Reducing Summer Cooling Load in Residential Buildings," J. of Climate and Applied Meteorology, Vol. 26, No. 9, pp. 1103-1116. also Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory Report LBL-21291, July 1986. Martien, P.; et al. 1989. "Approaches to Using Models of Urban Climates in Building Energy Simula- tion", LBL Draft Report. Rainer, L.; Martien, P.; Taha, H. 1989. "Measurement of Summer Residential Microclimates in Sacramento CA", Proceedings of the Workshop on Urban Heat Islands, Berkeley CA, (February 23-24). Taba, H.; Akbari, H.; Rosenfeld, A. 1989. "Heat Island and Oasis Effects of Vegetative Canopies: Micrometeorological Field Measurements", Submitted to Theoretical and Applied Climatology. Taha, H.; Akbari, H.; Rosenfeld, A.; Huang, J. 1988. "Residential Cooling Loads and the Urban Heat Island: The Effect of Albedo," Energy and Environment, Vol. 23, No. 4, pp. 271-283. Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory Report LBL-24008. Taha, H. 1988. "Site-Specific Heat Island Simulations: Model Development and Application to Microcli- mate Conditions", Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory Report No. 26105, Masters Thesis, University of California at Berkeley. Taha, H. 1988. "Nighttime Air Temperature and the Sky View Factor: A Case Study in San Francisco CA", Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory Report No. 24009. Taha, H.; Akbari, H.; Rosenfeld, A. 1988. "Vegetation Canopy Micro-Climate: A field Project in Davis, California", Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory Report LBL-24593. Selected Popular Articles H. Gilliam, "How we can fight the greenhouse effect," San Francisco Chronicle, July 31, Page 18, 1988. H. Gilliam, "Dangling a carrot to save environment," San Francisco Chronicle, October 16, Pages 19-20, 1988. D. Blum, "Trees may save world from greenhouse effect threat," The Sacramento Bee, November 25, 1988. N. Sampson, "A way to combat greenhouse effect," Minneapolis Star Tribune, October 20, 1988. N. Sampson, "Cool the greenhouse, plant 100 million trees," Los Angeles Times, October 16, Part V, 1988. A. Lipkis, "With a forest for Los Angeles," Los Angeles Times, October 16, Part V, 1988. R. M. Kidder, "Plant a tree, salve a nation," The Christian Science Monitor, November 14, Page 25, 1988. C. Hodge, "Natural heat relief researched: Trees called way to cool, cut cost," The Arizona Republic, July 23, 1988. "November in desert Gardens: Some of the year's best planting days are here. Head for the nursery," Sunset, Page 227, November 1988. /user2/ed/h_ahis/PUBLICATION/pubdec89 #592 P03 TEL NO:4154865172 MAR-30-'90 09:15 ID:LBL 90-COPY CENTER -3- "Trees displace power plants?" The National Urban Forest FORUM, Editor G. A. Moll, Vol 8, No. 4, July/August 1988. J. N. Wilford, "New climate factor: The golf-course effect," New York Times, September 13, Page B8, 1988. Auser2/ted/h_ahis/PUBLICATION/qub.dec89 #592 P04 TEL NO:4154865172 MAR-30-'90 09:16 ID:LBL 90-COPY CENTER 6218- Can Sel March 15, 1990 MEMORANDUM FOR DAN MCGROARTY PEGGY DOOLEY FROM: STEPHANIE BLESSEY man your SUBJECT: ARBOR DAY TREE PLANTING The following is information I gathered on the pre-advance to Indianapolis: BACKGROUND: Attendance: 10-15,000 people (hopefully) 2,000 5ml, 2, 3-4,000 school children Remainder of audience will be downtowners since event is in a downtown park. Setting: Park in front of Dan Quayle's law school. Skyline would be backdrop. Banner with "Trees for Tomorrow" and school children standing directly behind him. Time: 11:00 a.m. Event: Give remarks ?Give 50 trees to students on behalf of the Plant tree city. will up eltas. PROGRAM: TREES FORest TOMORROW A citywide campaign to plant 30,000 trees during 1990 -- the program stresses tomorrow i.e. children. The program also wants to involve the entire community. Attached is program brochure. April is "Clean and Green Month," A and they plan to give away 1,000 trees. NOTE: Although this is Mayor Hudnut's project, he will be in Jerusalem during the event. The W.H. political office isn't concerned that he appear because he has publicly criticized the President. Their fear is that he will decide to show up. CONTACT: Mark Goff is, fintree and Mayor Hudnut's office (317) 236-3600 less , Tu or its or of on Urgania March 5, 1990 INFORMATION MEMORANDUM TO THE PRESIDENT THROUGH: CHRISS WINSTON FROM: MARK LANGE SUBJECT: Remarks to the American Electronics Association I. SUMMARY On Wednesday, March 7, at 11:30 a.m. you will speak to the American Electronics Association. Your remarks are brief (10-12 minutes) and will be TelePrompted. The audience will be made up of approximately 400 senior high-tech industry executives. Your remarks applaud the work of the electronics industry, especially the diversity of what the industry offers America. The remarks briefly outline steps taken by the Administration which will help the electronics industry, suc FROM THE OFFICE OF THE MAYOR CONTACT: 2501 City County Building Mark J. Goff Indianapolis, Indiana 46204 Special Assistant for Public Affairs (317) 236-3610 (317) 236-3980 FAX TO: CURT SMITH White House Communications 202-456-2772 Curt: Attached pls. find the news release you requested. Please call if you need additional assistance. MJG POI SITOSVNVIONI 10 ALIC* WIT9:90 06 22 'EO FROM THE OFFICE OF THE MAYOR FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE, CONTACT: 2501 City-County Building Indianapolis, Indiana 46204 Mark J. Goff Office: (317) 236-3610 Mark Bowell Office: (317) 924-7037 March 22, 1990 HUDNUT ANNOUNCES PRESIDENT BUSH TO HELP PLANT "TREES FOR TOMORROW" Nation's chief executive to visit Indianapolis on April 3 Culminating nearly a year of discussions, Mayor William H. Hudnut, III today confirmed that President George Bush will visit Indianapolis on April 3, 1990, to help the City's Department of Parks and Recreation launch its urban forestry program, "Trees for Tomorrow." Hudnut, a member of the Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Financial Advisory Board, first initiated discussions on the possible Bush visit when he met with EPA Director William K. Reilly at the United States Conference of Mayors convention last June in Charleston, South Carolina. "We're delighted that the President has officially accepted our invitation to come to Indianapolis to participate in this monumental program that is destined to improve air quality in our City," said Hudnut. "We've been working on this program for some time, and are pleased that the President has endorsed it and is willing to participate in its debut. Statistics show that one mature tree can generate enough oxygen for one person to breathe for one year, but for every one tree we plant we're loosing four trees. Trees for Tomorrow' represents a positive step forward toward reforesting the urban landscape. I believe that if every person were to plant one tree, we could cut our air pollution problem in half." The "Trees for Tomorrow" program includes a goal of planting 30,000 trees by the end of the year. Funding for 5,000 of the trees will come from the existing Department of Parks and Recreation revenues, and DPR is working to identify corporate sponsors and other interested individuals to assist in funding the remaining 25,000 trees. The White House announced yesterday that Bush has officially agreed to participate in the program's kickoff here in Indianapolis, the "Trees for Tomorrow Celebration." Bush and Hudnut will plant the first tree near the intersection of Washington and Maryland streets in the late morning on April 3, 1990. - more - PO2 SITOdONVIONI 09:91:90 OS 22. O TREES PAGE TWO 3-22-90 Featured entertainment at the celebration includes performances by Sandi Patti, The Marlins, and the Jimmy Coe Band. Corporate sponsors for the event are AT & T, Methodist Hospital of Indianapolis, and Marsh Supermarkets. For more information on Trees for Tomorrow, contact the Parks Department at 924-7037. - 30 - POS SITOSVNVIONI 30 ALIC* NIT9:90 06 03.20. OF Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory THE THE VINDOSITY 1 Cyclotron Road Berkeley, California 94720 THEREY Building 90, Room 1060 FTS 451-5172, Commercial (415) 486-5172 Confirm: FTS 451-6584, Commercial (415) 486-6584 DATE: 3/29/90 FAX number: (202) 456-6218 TO: Stephanie Belessey White House Office (202) 456-7750 Office or Location Phone Number Rm III FROM: Hashem akbani RBL (415)486-4287 Office or Location Phone Number SPECIAL INSTRUCTIONS Total number of pages: 9 LBL Account Number: 4712-01 #578 P01 TEL NO: :4154865172 MAR-29-',90 10:49 ID:LBL 90-COPY CENTER Presented at ASHRAE January 1990 Meeting, Atlanta, Georgia LBL-28308 AT-90-24-1 Dear stephenie, It was a pleasure SUMMER HEAT ISLANDS, URBAN TREES, Two table to you AND WHITE SURFACES Harhem H. Akbari, Ph.D. A.H. Rosenfeld, Ph.D. H. Taha Member ASHRAE Member ASHRAE ABSTRACT ways to mitigate this negative effect on both micro- and Temperature trends for the last 100 years in sev- meso-scales (Landsberg 1978; Thurow. 1983). eral U.S. cities were analyzed. Since 1940 there has Urban trees and light-colored surfaces are effec- been a steady overall increase in urban témperatures. tive and inexpensive measures IU reduce heat islands Summer monthly averages have increased by 0.25-1°F and create summer oases. Trees can improve the per decade (- 1°F for larger cities like Los Angeles and urban climate by shading, wind-shielding, and evapo- 0.25°F for smaller cities). There is no evidence that this transpiration and thus reduce summer cooling energy rise is moderating, and of course global greenhouse use in buildings at about 1% of the capital cost of the warming will add a comparable rise. Typical electric avoided power plants and air-conditioning equipment. demand of cities increases by 1% to 2% of the peak for Light colors decrease surface absorption of short-wave each °F, and most major cities are now -5°F warmer radiation. thereby reducing surface temperatures and than they were in the early 1900s. Hence. we estimate convective heating of near-surface air. On the urban that about 5% to 10% of the current urban electric scale. this results in cooler cities. External surfaces of demand is spent to cool buildings just to compensate for buildings can be painted white (or a light color) and the heat island effect. For example, downtown Los streets and parking lots resurfaced with white sand Angeles is now 5°F hotter than in 1940 and so the L.A. (which is necessary anyway), thereby reducing cooling basin demand is up by 1500 MW, worth $150,000 per energy needs at relatively low costs. hour on a hot afternoon (the equivalent national bill is in addition to saving energy, urban trees and =$1M/hour). In major cities, smog episodes are absent light-colored surfaces are the most cost-effective ways below about 70°F, but they become unacceptable by to slow the growth of atmospheric CO2. By reducing 90°F, so a rise of 10°F because of past and future heat the need to burn fossil fuels for generating electricity. island effects is very significant. urban trees are many times more efficient at limiting There are some strategies that can alleviate the atmospheric CO2 than is rural forestation. heat island effect. Computer simulations and field stud- Our calculations indicate that heat island mitiga- ies have quantified the potential of trees and lighter sur- tion strategies such as urban trees and light-colored faces for reducing summer heat islands. Results surfaces can save 0.5 quad per year at a cost of less indicate that the cost of saved energy and avoided than 1c/kWh and decrease CO2 emissions by about 17 CO2 through greening and whitening of urban greas is million tons of carbon ner vear less than 12/kWh and 2c/kg of carbon, respectively. HEAT ISLAND EFFECTS AND CONSEQUENCES INTRODUCTION Cities are getting warmer than their suburban and Long-Term Urban Temperature Trends rural surroundings (Karl et al. 1988; Kukla et al. 1986). Temperature data for the analysis were obtained and this long-term warming is responsible for an from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center increase of 1% to 2% in cooling loads (with respect to (CDIAC 1987) and Goodridge (1987.1989). The data the peak) for each °F raise. As temperature rises, so have been adjusted for station moves (relocation). does the severity of smog and the production of other change of height, time of observation bias, change in airborne pollutants. type of instruments, and discontinuity in record (Karl et Before mechanical air conditioning, people al. 1986, 1987). They have not been corrected for urban cooled their homes by planting trees around them and growth (population) effects. painting the walls and roofs white. The disappearance For example, Los Angeles is a large metropolis of such simple practices in many urban areas con- with a mild to warm climate. Figure 1a depicts the tributes to summer theat islands" with typical daily annual temperature highs between 1877 and 1984. It average intensities of 3° to 5°C. However, there are clearly indicates that downtown Los Angeles was Note H. Akbari is a staff scientist at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, A.H. Rosenfeld is a professor of physics at the University of Cal- ifornia and director of the Center for Building Science, and H. Taha is a Ph.D. candidate at the University of California. All are members of the Heat Island Project at the Applied Science Division, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, THIS PREPRINT IS FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY. FOR INCLUSION IN ASHRAE TRANSACTIONS 1990. V. 96. Pt. 1. Not to De reported in whole or in part without written permission of the American Society of Hearing, Reingeraung and Air-Conditioning Engineers, Inc., 1791 Tullie Circle, NE. Atlanta, GA 30329. Opinions. findings. conclusions. or recommendations expressed in this paper are those or the author(s) and 00 not necessarily reflect the views of ASHRAE. #578 P02 TEL NO:4154865172 MAR-29-'90 10:50 ID:LBL 90-COPY CENTER 120 cooling at a rate of 0.05°F/yr up to 1930 and then Downtown Los Angeles CA. started a steady warming of 13°F/yr (1.3°F/decade) afterwards. In other words, downtown Los Angeles's 101 F annual high temperatures are now -6°F higher than they were in 1940. Figure 1b shows the post-'40s warming trend in further detail. One can see that aver- age temperature slopes of the summer months are in the range of 0.11 to 0.13 (±.02)°F/yr. Table 1 summa- Year high temperature (°F) 110 108 *F 100 99 F rizes some related statistics: TABLE 1 Summary Statistics for the Fig. 1.8 Monthly Average Temperature Trends 90 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 (ε is standard error of the slope, and a Is significance). Year Month Fit r2 E a June 0.346 0.027 0.00 July 0.346 0.023 0.00 90 August T=71.47(1940)+0.1173"yr 0.389 0.022 0.00 September T=70.46(1940)+0.1108"yr 0.278 0.026 0.00 june MY Figure 2 depicts the long-term trend in annual august mean temperatures in Washington, DC, between 1871 ao segiember and 1987. One can see that since 1900 there has been a steady rise of 0.5°F/decade and that the total rise over " 80 years is about 4°F. Contrary to Los Angeles, whose 70 temperatures were all urban (Figure 1), Washington, DC's urban stations moved to airport locations in 1942.1 The data indicate that this recent warming trend is typical of most U.S. metropolitan areas. As an example, Fig. 1.b so consider some California cities. Figure 3 (Goodridge 30 40 50 60 70 50 90 1989) shows that before 1940, the average urban-rural temperature differences for 31 urban and 31 rural sta- Year tions in California were always negative, i.e., cities were Figure 1 Long-term annual high temperatures (a), and cooler than their surroundings (both annual and 10-year monthly averages (b) in Los Angeles, CA averages show this). We speculate that this is a result of oasis effects in the relatively more vegetated city cen- Heat Islands and Cooling Loads ters. After 1940, when built-up areas took over the veg- Figures 4a and b depict the dependence of sys- etated ones, the urban centers became as warm as or tern-wide utility load on dry-hulb temperature for the warmer than the suburbs. and the trend becomes quite portion of the city of Los Angeles served by the Los obvious after 1965, with a slope of about 0.7°F/decade. Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP). in The heat island effect has thus become dominant in Figure 4a, the 4 p.m. load is plotted against the 4 p.m. these urban areas. temperature for 365 days in 1986.2 One can distinguish Goodridge (1989) shows that San Diego, Los some weekend scatter, base load scatter, and temper- Angeles. San Francisco, and Sacramento have warm- ature-dependent cooling load. The upper boundary of ing trends exceeding 0.4°F/decade. Our data support the peak demand "envelope" slopes at -72 MW/°F his findings and indicate that the August warming (2%/°F). In Figure 4b. the same procedure is repeated trends in San Diego. CA, and San Bernardino, CA, are, by plotting peak load (at 4 p.m.) vs. average daily tem- respectively, 0.8°F/decade and 0.6°F/decade. They perature for 365 days in 1986; the slope is 75 MW/°F. also indicate that the maximum temperatures in Davis about 2%/°F of the peak. Recalling that the city of Los and Pasadena, CA, have increased by -0.8 and Angeles has warmed by -5°F since 1940 (Figure 1), -0.9°F, respectively. one can see that we have incurred an Increase of 375' MW or 10% of the current peak load. in Figure 5, a similar plot is constructed for a south- 1 Up to 1942. the Washington data are for urban weather stations, but ern California utility (SCE)³ whereby the 4 p.m. loads are after 1942. the stations moved to airports. Figure 2 thus depicts data from different locations. So while urban heat island information is plotted against the daily average temperatures for 365 needed, the last 40 years provide mostly airport data (adjusted or days in 1986. Although representative temperatures for unadjusted) that may underestimate the urban effects, because cities the SCE service area were available, we decided to plot warm up faster than their suburbs where airports are usually located. the SCE load data against the LADWP temperatures, so This is not only the case with Washington, DC, but also with most major cities in the U.S. The authors are not aware, at this time, of any continuous urban temperature data base for the last 100 years 2 We chose 1986 because weather and load data were already (except for Los Angeles and San Francisco, CA), and we believe that available. monitoring of this kind should be undertaken, if city-wide energy use 3 The system area surrounds Los Angeles but does not include the city is to be better understood and mitigation strategies property applied. itself, which is served by LADWP. 200 8258 TEL NO:4154865172 MAR-29-'90 10:51 ID:LBL 90-COPY CENTER 60 Urban stations Airports stations 58 °F Mean temperature (°F) 4 'F/80 years $6 100 MWCF . 2%/*F (with respect to & ceak of 5211 MW): So & warming of 4*F/80 years $ equivalem 10 400 MW, 54 and if peak electricity 18 worth 10enwh, this IS $40.000/hr or acout $50M/year 52 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Figure 2 Annual mean temperatures in Washington, DC (1871-1987). Data source: Mayberry, E. Potomac Electric Power Company. Washington, DC. 15 Annual 10-year average du 1.0 Urban Rural temp (°F) 0.5 * Slope: HOT 0.67 *F/decader 0.0 COOL g D B .0.5 -1.0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Figure 3 Urban-rural temperature differences in California. Based on 31 urban and 31 rural stations. Data Source: Goodrige (1989) we can consistently use them4 for comparison with the Figure 5 shows an envelope's upper boundary long-term trend shown in Figure 1. slopes at 225 MW/°F, or about 1.6%/°F. If we add this to the LADWP slope (75 MW/°F). the total reaches 300 MW/°F. and for a 5°F rise since 1940, that means -1.5 d To study peak load/temperature dependence. an appropriate GW of heat island-dependent load. If peak electricity is method is to use 4 p.m. (peak) temperatures over the period of inter- est, as was the case in Figure 4a. But hourly data are not always worth 10c/kWh, then this represents $150,000/°F for each available for long-term periods, i.e., the last 100 years, and only hour. For Washington. DC (Figure 2). the slope is 100 daily or monthly averages can be found. The use of the average MW/°F (2%/°F of the 5200 MW peak). So for an increase temperature is thus justified, and we have shown that in Figure 4b. of 4°F over 80 years, this is an additional 400 MW costing We saw that there was no major change in the slope, compared to <$40,000/hr. There are about 1300 hours of air-condition- Figure 4a. When the SCE load was plotted against LADWP temper- atures (Figure 5), it resulted in a similar pattern. We will use temper- ing in Wahington, DC, resulting in =$50M annually. We ature averages in our analysis of load/temperature data for other estimate that the hourly cost of all the heat islands in the locations. as well. U.S. is of an order of magnitude of $1 million. #578 P04 TEL NO:4154865172 MAR-29-'90 10:52 ID:LBL 90-COPY CENTER 5000 LADWP 1986 (4 p.m. data) Heat Islands and Smog 71.5 MW/F = 2%/°F Not only do summer heat islands increase sys- 4000 tem-wide cooling loads, but they also increase the 365 payments 11986) 4pm LOAD (MW) amount of smog, brought on by higher urban tempera- 3000 tures. For example, Figure 6 shows the daily maxima in ozone (O₃) levels for Los Angeles. Below 74°F. smog never exceeds the National Atmospheric Air Quality 2000 weekend Standard (NAAQS). but by 94°F. smog levels are too high (=26 pphm). Restated. smog is very sensitive to Figure 4a. this 20°F increase of which one-fourth is already 1000 attributable to the heat island effect. Argento (1988) 50 60 70 80 90 100 reports similar results for 13 cities throughout the state 4pm Temperature (°F) of Texas. HEAT ISLAND MITIGATION 5000 Light-colored urban surfaces and trees are LADWP system (1986) proven and inexpensive measures to reduce heat islands and create summer oases. The effects of mod- 4000 75 MW/°F E 2%/°F Ifying the urban environment by planting trees and 163 points (1986) Spin LOAD (MW) increasing albedos are best quantified in terms of direct and indirect contributions. The direct effect of 3(K) planting trees around a building or painting the build- ing surfaces with a light color is to alter the energy bal- ance and cooling requirements of that particular 2000 building. However, when trees are planted and albe- dos are modified throughout an entire city, the energy Figure 4b. balance of the whole city is modified, producing city- 1000 50 60 70 80 90 wide changes in climate. Phenomena associated with the city-wide changes in climate are referred to as indi- Average daily temperature (°F) rect effects, because they indirectly affect the energy Figure 4 Load vs. temperature in downtown use in an Individual building. Los Angeles (1986) An important reason for making a distinction between direct and indirect effects is that, while direct + pm Load of the S.C. Edison versus Downtown Los Angeles daily average temperature 16000 225 MW/°F = 1.6%/°F 14000 4 pm LOAD (MW) 12000 10000 8000 6000 50 60 70 80 90 Daily average temperature (°F) Total LA Basin: 75 MW (LADWP) + 225 MW (SCE) . 300 MW 300 MW 5 °F a. 1500 MW, worth - $150.000 per hour Figure 5 Load vs. temperature for the SCE system (1986) #578 P05 TEL NO:4154865172 MAR-29-'90 10:52 ID:LBL 90-COPY CENTER 30 25 20 - 24 SMOG, measured Ozone in PPHM (parts per hundred millions) 22 20 18 10 14 NAAQS 12 10 6 6 & 2 0 50 70 90 Daily maximum temperature (*F) Figure 6 Ozone level vs. temperature in Los Angeles. CA (1985) effects are well recognized and accounted for in pre- Trees affect energy use in buildings through direct sent models of building energy use, indirect effects processes such as (1) reducing solar heat gain through have received much less recognition. Methods of windows, walls, and roofs by shading, (2) reducing the accounting for indirect effects have not been as well radiant heat gain from surroundings by shading and developed and remain comparatively less certain. view factor reduction; and (3) reducing infiltration by Understanding these effects and incorporating them shielding a particular building from wind. Deciduous into accounts of building energy use is the focus of our trees are beneficial because they allow solar gain in current research. It is worth noting that the phe- buildings during wintertime. nomenon of summer urban heat islands is itself the On the other hand. the indirect effects of trees consequence of indirect effects of the built environ- include (1) reducing the rate of outside air infiltration by ment. We are proposing to use the same principles to increasing surface roughness and decreasing urban cool hot cities. wind speeds and (2) reducing the heat gain of build- The issue of direct and indirect effects also enters ings by lowering ambient air temperatures through into our discussion of atmospheric CO₂. Planting trees evapotranspiration (the evaporation of water from soil- has the direct effect of reducing atmospheric CO₂ vegetation systems). On hot summer days, trees act as because each individual tree directly sequesters car- natural "evaporative coolers." using up to 100 gallons bon from the atmosphere through photosynthesis. of water a day each, thus lowering the ambient temper- However, planting trees in cities also has an indirect ature. A significant increase in urban trees leads to effect on CO2. By reducing the demand for cooling increased evapotranspiration, thus producing an energy, urban trees indirectly reduce emission of CO₂ "oasis effect" and significantly lowering urban ambient from power plants. As will be seen, the amount of CO₂ temperatures. Buildings in these cooler environments avoided via the indirect effect is considerably greater will require less cooling power and energy. The effect than the amount sequestered directly. of evapotranspiration is minimal in winter because of Urban Trees lower ambient temperatures and the absence of leaves on deciduous trees. Case studies have documented dramatic differ- ences in cooling energy use between houses on land- Urban Albedo scaped and unlandscaped sites. Parker (1981) The energy balance of a building or an entire City measured cooling savings resulting from well-planned depends on the net solar radiation at its surface. To Note landscaping and found that properly located trees and describe the relative amounts of reflected vs. absorbed shrubs reduced daily air-conditioning electricity use by radiation, the term "albedo" is used. An albedo of 1.0 as much as 50%. corresponds to a surface that completely reflects. while 90d 8258 TEL 0:4154865172 MAR-29-'90 10:53 ID:LBL 90-COPY CENTER TABLE 2 TABLE 3 Simulated Direct Savings in Cooling Energy and Simulated Indirect Savings In Peak Power Resulting from Planting Trees Cooling Energy Use and Peak Cooling Power for peak Nisl. and Whitewashing Buildingss Single-Story 1980-Prototype Houses? 1973 Houses 1980 Houses Urban canopy density energy ~B0% Location Albedo of house and (leaky and low insulation) (tight and high Insulation) increased by 3 treas/house surrounding increased² Savings Savings Location Percent energy savings Base Percent energy savings (A%) Base (0%) Sacramento. CA Chicago, IL 1400 It2 + 2000 t12 Peak kW 23 21 Peak KW 3.60 23.6 3.20 29.1 Annual kWn 37 45³ Annual kWh 2584.0 peah N261 19.9 1888 0 21.6 Phoenix, AZ Miami, FL 1400 ft2 1600 ft2 12 energy ~20°1 Peak kW Peak kW 5.42 25.3 3.29 23.4 Annual kWh 27 Annual kWh 13623.0 22.5 8730.0 16.5 Lake Charles. LA Minneapolis. MN 1400 tt2 2000 H2 Peak kW 15 total Peak kW 3.14 27.1 2.65 317 Annual kWh 31 Annual kWn 1916.0 20.2 1325.0 22.6 $ Canopy savings are annual figures. Albedo savings are for the period from peak N30% Phoenix, AZ 1400 112 1600ft2 July 9 to July 12 only. (All entries are indirect effects.) Peak kW 7.56 26.2 5.18 31.1 1 Data from Huang et al. (1987). Assumes an increase of three trees per nouse. Annual kWh 13117.0 7789.0 17.3 2 Data estimated from Taha et al, (1988). Assumes an increase from 0.26 to Energy yo% 19.8 0.40 in the albado of the surroundings. Pittsburgh, PA 1600 n² 1600ft2 3 Canopy savings are annual savings. Albedo savings for the penod from Peak kW 3.50 24.9 2.36 23.3 July 9 to July 12. Annual kWh 1821.0 23.3 1177.0 20.1 Sacramento, CA 1400 n² 16001t2 1973 stock is representative of leaky and poorly insu- Peak kW 5.40 25.4 3.85 26.0 Annual kWh 3767.0 lated housing, while the 1980 homes are tight and well 28.3 2372.0 23.8 insulated. The savings are calculated for an increase in Washington. DC 2000 ft2 2200 112 tree cover of 30% (three trees per house) and an Peak kW 5.80 30.3 3.98 29.4 Annual kWh 4368.0 22.7 2790.0 20.0 increase in a building's albedo from 30% to 70% over that of a base case. Average Peak kW 26.3 28.0 Table 3 shows the simulated indirect savings in Annual kWn 21.9 18.6 cooling energy and peak power. For the cities mod- $ Tree cover was increased by 30% with respect to the base case, whereas eled, the effect of an additional three trees per building albedo was increased from 30% to 70%. We have used these estimates for results in approximately 30% savings in annual cooling calculating the national savings. energy and approximately 15% to 20% annual savings in peak cooling power. The indirect effects of albedo were quantified for Sacramento. CA, for only four days an albedo of 0.0 refers to one that completely absorbs in July. Simulations showed that increasing the albedo all incident solar radiation. The albedo of an individual of the surroundings from 0.25 to 0.40 reduced the cool- building can be modified to achieve direct savings: a ing energy by 45% and peak power by 21%. This sug- lighter building reflects more solar radiation and there- gests that for residential buildings the potential savings fore stays cooler. The albedo of an entire city can be from albedo and vegetation are roughly equivalent. modified to achieve indirect savings by lowering urban We have comparatively few simulations of indi- temperatures. rect effects. Since our urban climate models are still Most buildings and cities have albedos in the under development, we conservatively interpret these range of 0.20 to 0.35. Traditional cities of white-washed results as maximum effects. When extrapolating to buildings found in hot areas have albedos in the range determine national savings (Table 4), we typically of 0.30 to 0.45 (Taha et al. 1988). Reflective roof mem- assume smaller effects. branes and popular "solar control" glazings of com- Table 4 shows savings of primary energy use for mercial buildings both have albedos of up to 0.8. There air conditioning in the U.S. The total residential electric- is a practical constraint in the maximum achievable ity use for air conditioning (room and central) is about urban albedo if this strategy is used in conjunction with 100 billion kWh or 1.2 quads of primary energy per increased urban vegetation, since a dense urban tree year (Akbari et al. 1988). In the U.S. in 1987, commer- canopy will cover a large amount of the surface area cial buildings used 670 billion kWh of electricity (EIA (the albedo of green trees is =0.25). We have esti- 1987) of which approximately 20% was used for cool- mated an upper limit of 0.40 for the albedo of a highly ing. corresponding to about 130 billion kWh or 1.5 vegetated city with light-colored surfaces. quads of source energy per year. Together, residential and commercial cooling uses 2.7 quads of source Energy Savings energy per year, worth $20 to $25 billion.⁵ Table 2 shows the simulated direct savings in In our calculations, we have assumed that tree cooling energy and peak power resulting from the planting and albedo modification can be applied to direct effects of increased urban tree cover and albedo. The results are shown for both the 1973 hous- $ Most residential electricity is still soid at an average price of -7.5c/kWh, but air-conditioning power IS mainly on-peak and the cost ing stocks and newer 1980 prototypical houses, The of new peak power is closer to 10c/kWh, 202 8258 TEL NO:4154865172 MAR-29-'90 10:54 ID:LBL 90-COPY CENTER Nate This and hate infous : a sol sourings are trus TABLE 4 Annual Cooling Energy Savings and Reductions in Released Carbon from Heat Island Mitigation Using Trees and White Surfaces 5.1 Residential Small Commercial Large Commercial Total Energy Carbon Energy Carbon Energy Carbon Energy Carbon (%) (1014 Btu) (M Tona) (%) (1015 Btu) (M Tons) (%) (1015 Btu) (M Tons) (1015 Btu) (M Tons) Cooling Energy 1.2 36 0.75 24 0.75 24 2.7 34 Use Heat Island 15 0.18 5 10 0.08 2 3 0.02 1 0.27 8 Portion² Direct Savings 10³ 0.12 4 44 0.03 1 0 0.0 0 0.15 5 indirect Savings 20 0.23 8 12 0.09 3 55 0.04 1 0.36 12 Total Savings 30 0.35 12 16 0.12 4 S 0.03 1 0,51 17 $ We assumed 100 million trees, white-colored homes, streets. and parking lots. 2 , Production of carbon (as CO₂) from a peak power plant assumes 11,600 Stu/kWh sold, and . 14.500 Blu/lb of carbon. We assumed that the overall heat island effect on the cooling energy use is 10%. We esumate that the effect of heat istengs to be largest (15%) on residential. moderate (10%) on small commercial, and small (3%) on large commercial buildings. 3 1 Residential. We assumed 3 trees (plus light surfaces) for 50% of our 50 million air-congitioned homes. so 75 million trees (plus light surfaces). Small Commercial. We assumed 30% coverage by trees (25 million more trees). in Large Commercial. We assumed no additional vees. only 50% of the 51 million air-conditioned houses in the for natural-gas-fired power plants to about 1 lb car- U.S. Tree density may already be high (especially in bon/kWh for coal-fired power plants. Because cooling older cities) and increasing tree cover and/or.albedo energy is almost always used during periods of peak may not be acceptable to all municipalities. and some demand (except in the case of thermal storage), the areas may not have a significant cooling load. We have electric utility must meet this demand using a combina- also assumed that half of the commercial building tion of coal-, oil-, and gas-fired power plants. The frac- stock of 4 million buildings is small enough to be tion of each fuel type used varies greatly, depending directly affected by shading and albedo increase. on the region of the country, and can vary from all coal The analysis shows that the direct effect of planting in some parts of the East to all oil and gas in Texas. Note three trees per house and changing the building albedo However, the national average is approximately half from 30% to 70% is equivalent to an average of 20% coal and half oil and gas (DOE 1988). This results in an cooling energy savings (see Table 2). Applying this to average emission of 0.8 lb carbon/kWh generated for the 25 million available houses, using 75 million trees, peak power. would result in energy savings of 0.12 quad. The corre- About half the savings from the combination of sponding direct savings due to the planting of a 30% direct and indirect effects shown in Table 4 would result NJ. tree cover around small commercial buildings is about from planting 100 million urban trees. This savings of 8% (Akbari et al. 1987). When this is applied to 50% of 0.25 quads (22 billion kWh) corresponds to a savings of the 2 million small commercial buildings, using another 9 million tons of carbon. A fast-growing forest tree 25 million trees, this would save an additional 0.03 quad. sequesters carbon at the rate of -13 lb carbon per year. Conservatively, a direct savings of 0.15 quad would be Therefore, 100 million trees could directly sequester achieved if 100 million trees were planted. 0.65 million tons of carbon. or only one-fifteenth of the Data presented in Table 3 suggest that the indi- Jobs: energy saved through their reduction in cooling energy rect effects of tree planting and albedo modification use. To directly sequester the amount of carbon saved alone can save at least 20% of the 1.2 quad of residen- by the planting of 100 million urban trees would require tial cooling energy use (thus 0.23 quad). Because planting 1.5 billion forest trees corresponding to 1.5 mil- small commercial buildings are less sensitive to out- lion hectares of forest (by comparison, the total area of door temperature than houses, we expect indirect sav- Connecticut is about 1.3 million hectares). ings of only about 12% of the 0.75 quad of small commercial cooling energy use (thus 0.09 quad). By THE COST OF HEAT ISLAND reducing urban temperatures, these measures also MITIGATION MEASURES decrease cooling energy use in large commercial Table 5 gives the cost-effectiveness, energy sav- buildings by increasing system efficiency and econo- ings, and carbon reduction of urban trees/light surfaces mizer operating hours. We estimate this would save an compared to other conservation and generation strate- additional 5% or 0.04 quad. gies. All energy conservation measures that reduce fos- CO₂ Savings sil fuel use also reduce carbon emissions. For example. the trend to more efficient electric appliances yields a Carbon, produced in the form of CO₂ from elec- cost of conserved energy (CCE) of about 2e/kWh. tricity generation, varies from about 0.5 lb carbon/kWh equivalent to a cost of conserved carbon (CCC) of #578 P08 TEL :4154865172 MAR-29-'90 10:55 ID:LBL 90-COPY CENTER TABLE 5 TABLE 5 Cost-Effectiveness, Energy Savings, and Carbon Elements of a Multi-Year Research Program for Control Reduction of Urban Trees/Light Surfaces Compared to of Summer Heat Islands Other Conservation and Generation Strategiess (1) Quantity the heat island effect CCE' COC' AE AC gather. benchmark. develop, and test heat Island simulation models Strategy (e/kWh) (c/lb C) (Quad/yr) (M Tons/yr) - collect data and make experimental measurements to validate the models evaluate other ways of obtaining heat island data (e.g. satellite and air- Conservation craft data) (Direct * Indirect Effect) - integrate all simulated and measured data into à single data base Urban Trees/ - develop simplified tools to extract heat island data for major urban Light Surfaces 0.2-1.0 0.25-1.25 0.5 17 areas in the U.S. from the integrated data base (direct CO₂ sequestered) (0.65) (2) Verify the mitigation savings Efficient Electric - model the peak power and energy savings of the heal island mitigation Appliances² 2 2.5 0.6 21 measures Efficient Cars³ 4.2 8.3 2.8 60 - design and develop wind-tunnel and full-scale experiments to compare (50c/gal) and improve simulation results New Generation - perform field monitoring of energy savings to verify estimated savings Coal Power 8 Base Case 1 Base Case (3) Develop implementation guidelines Nuclear Power 114 - 60 - evaluate the cost-penelits of heat island miligation measures and com- pare savings in energy. equipment. and avoided generation to the § (Source: Akban et al. 1988) costs of Implementation , CCE is Cost of Conserved Energy and CCC is Cost of Conserved Carbon. - develop implementation strategies and guidelines 2 Improved standards as defined by National Appliance Energy Conserva- (4) Quantity the heat island effect on pollution and global warming tion Act (NAECA). - develop algorithms to correct for heat island contamination of tempera- : Improved car efficiency from 26 mpg to 36 mpg. ture data used to estimate the severity of global warming - estimate the fossil energy saved by the miligation measures and hence 2.5c/lb carbon. Another conservation strategy is to the delay in global warming improve efficiency in automobiles. The cost of con- - measure the relation between heat islands, smog. and creation of served carbon in going from a 26 mpg to a 36 mpg smog feedstocks automobile is 10c/lb carbon. Both these measures are effective, but they are much more expensive than urban CDIAC. 1987. "CDIAC numeric data collection." Environmen- trees and light-colored cities. tal Science Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Urban trees and light surfaces have a CCE of Report NDP-019. DOE. 1988. "Technical support document for the analysis of about 0.2 to 10c/kWh and a CCC of about 0.3 to 13c/lb efficiency standards on refrigerators, refrigerator-freezers, of carbon. This is as much as 10 times less expensive freezers, small gas furnaces, and television sets," than either of the alternative strategies just cited. The Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory draft report. point of the comparison is not to discredit the other EIA. 1987. Monthly energy review. DOE/EIA-0035(87/09). conservation strategies but to suggest that planting Goodridge, J. 1987. "Population and temperature trends in urban trees and modifying urban albedos seems California." Proceedings of the Pacific Climate Workshop, attractive and definitely worth investigating. Pacific Grove, CA, March 22-26, There are still many things to learn about summer Goodridge, J. 1989. "Air temperature trends in California, 1916 to 1987." J. Goodridge, 31 Rondo Ct., Chico, CA 95928. heat islands. A multi-year effort in research, modeling, Huang, Y.J.: Akbari, H.; Taha, H.; and Rosenfeld, A. 1987. and data gathering is required to further Investigate the "The potential of vegetation in reducing summer cooling energy-saving potentials and ways for controlling sum- loads in residential buildings." Journal of Climate and mer heat islands. Table 6 shows some elements of a Applied Meteorology, Vol. 26, No.9, pp. 1103-1116. multi-year research program, including quantifying the Karl, T.R.: Williams, C.N., Jr.: Young, P.M.: and Wendland, heat island effect. verifying the mitigation savings, W.M. 1986. "A model to estimate the time of observation developing implementation guidelines, and quantifying bias associated with monthly maximum, minimum, and the heat island effect on pollution and global warming. mean temperatures for the United States." Journal of Cli- mate and Applied Meteorology, Vol. 25, pp. 145-160. ACKNOWLEDGMENT Karl, T.R., and Williams, N.C. 1987, "Data adjustments and edits to the U.S. historical climate network." National Cli- This work was supported by the Assistant Secretary for matic Data Center, Federal Building, Asheville, NC 28801. Conservation and Renewable Energy, Office of Building and Karl, T.R.: Diaz, H.F.; and Kukla, G. 1988. "Urbanization: its Community Systems, Building System Division of the U.S. detection and effects in the United States climate record." Department of Energy. under contract No. DE-AC0376SF00098. Journal of Climate, Vol. 1, pp. 1099-1123. This work was in part funded by a grant from the University-Wide Kukla, G.: Gavin, J.: and Karl, T.R. 1986. "Urban warming." Energy Research Group, University of California . Berkeley. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, Vol. 25, pp. 1265-1270. REFERENCES Landsberg, H.E. 1978. "Planning for the climate realities of Akbari. H.: Taha, H.; Martien, P.; and Huang, J. 1987. "Strate- arid regions." Urban Planning for Arid Zones: American gies for reducing urban heat islands: savings, conflicts. and experience and Directions, ed. Gideon Golany. New York: city's role." Proceedings of the First National Conference on John Wiley & Sons. Energy Efficient Cooling, San Jose CA, Oct. 21-22. Parker. J. 1981, "Uses of landscaping for energy conserva- Akbari, H.; Huang, J.; Martien, P.; Rainer, L.; Rosenfeld, A.; tion." Department of Physical Sciences, Florida Interna- and Taha, H. 1988. "The impact of summer heat islands tional University, Miami. Sponsored by the Governor's on cooling energy consumption and CO2 emissions." Pro- Energy Office of Florida. ceedings of ACEEE 1988 Summer Study on Energy Effi- Taha, H.; Akbari, H.; Rosenfeld, A.; and Huang, J. 1988. ciency in Buildings, Vol 5. pp. 11-23. Asilomar CA (Aug.). "Residential cooling loads and the urban neat island: the Argento. V.K. 1988. "Ozone nonattainment policy vs. the facts effects of albedo." Building and Environment. Vol. 23, No. of life." Chemical Engineering Progress, Dec., pp. 50-54. 4. pp. 271-283. #578 P09 TEL NO:4154865172 CENTER 1200-06 787:01 95:01 06.-62-26W VV6 VVIV Mouvovoim Articles Observational Constraints on the Global Atmospheric CO₂ Budget PIETER P. TANS, INEZ Y. FUNG, TARO TAKAHASHI uptake on the land (except for the highest occan uptake estimates) to Observed atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and data on balance the atmospheric CO2 budget (6, 7). the partial pressures of CO2 in surface ocean waters are The inorganic carbon chemistry that describes the ultimate uptake combined to identify globally significant sources and capacity of the oceans io well understood; however, the capacity of sinks of CO2. The atmospheric data are compared with the oceans for uptake of CO₂ also depends sensitively on their boundary layer concentrations calculated with the trans- circulation dynamics and the biological processes in them. The port fields generated by a general circulation model atmosphere exchanges CO2 with the ocean surface layer, in which (GCM) for specified source-sink distributions. In the biological processes keep the partial pressure of CO₂ (pCO₂) much model the observed north-south atmospheric concentra- lower chan in deeper waters. High-latitude areas, where deep water tion gradient can be maintained only if sinks for CO2 are outcrops at the sea surface during winter, are an exception. The high greater in the Northern than in the Southern Hemi- pCO₂ in waters below about 300 m depth is attributed mainly to the sphere. The observed differences between the partial downward transport of C, via gravitational settling of biogenic pressure of CO₂ in the surface waters of the Northern debris produced in the photic zone, and the slow vertical mixing rate Hemisphere and the atmosphere are too small for the of deep water. The models that have been used to estimate the oceans to be the major sink of fossil fuel CO2. Therefore, uptake of CO2 by the oceans incorporate these oceanic features in a large amount of the CO2 is apparently absorbed on the varying degrees and have been validated with observed distributions continents by terrestrial ecosystems. of tracers such as ¹²²Rn, 14C, ³H, chlorofluorocarbons (CFC), nutrient salts, and O₂. However, none of these tracers behaves exactly like CO₂. Furthermore, in all models the circulation is assumed to be in steady state, and in many of them changes in ISING ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATIONS ARE EXPECT- biological processes and the seasonal nature of C uptake are not R ed to lead to significant global climatic changes during the included. coming decades (1). After 30 years of measurements in the Measurements of pCO₂ in the surface waters and of total inorgan- atmosphere and the oceans, the global atmospheric CO2 budget is ic carbon (TCO2) dissolved in the oceans have not yet led to a direct still surprisingly uncertain. An improved understanding of the CO2 confirmation of the amount of fossil CO₂ removed from the cycle is essential to predict the future rate of atmospheric CO2 atmosphere by the oceans (8), in part because the expected increases increase and to plan eventually for an international CO2 manage- are small compared to the natural variation. For example, if half of ment strategy. the cumulative fossil fuel CO₂ emitted since 1850 were distributed Combustion of fossil fuels, the amount of which is well docu- uniformly in the upper 1000 m of the oceans, TCO2 would have mented (2), is a major contributor to the observed concentration increased by only 1%. increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. The measured rise was about Any geographical distribution of CO2 sources and sinks is 57% of the fossil fuel input from 1981 to 1987. Other sources may reflected in the sparial and temporal variations of CO₂ concentration have also contributed to the rise, but the amount of CO₂ released by patterns in the atmosphere. Numerical models of atmospheric changes in land use remains uncerrain (3, 4), as is the response of transport can simulare these patterns; they thereby allow us to test terrestrial ecosystems to higher CO2 levels and to other climatic and hypotheses of the atmospheric CO₂ budget (9, 10). With the use of environmental perturbations (5). Estimates of the uptake of CO₂ by rwo-dimensional models (lacirude, height) the observed concentra- the occans have been based entirely on computational schemes of tion gradients in the atmospheric boundary layer can be inverted varying complexity (6), from "box" models to three-dimensional directly to yield the net surface source as a function of latitude and ocean circulation models (7). The "consensus" among these studies time (11). In this article, we use three-dimensional (3-D) transport is that the oceans might be absorbing between 26 and 44% of the fields to simulate the global distribution of CO2 in response to fossil CO2. This would leave no room for any significant net loss of specific assumptions about the strength and location of surface C from terrestrial ecosystems, but instead would require net C fluxes of CO2. Global CO₂ budgets are constructed as linear combinations of separate sources and sinks, including new estimates for the oceanic fluxes. The mean annual meridional gradient ob- P. P. Tans is with the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado/Nanonal Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Campus served from 1981 8 1987 is then compared with the model values, Box 216, Boulder, CO 80309. L Y. Fung is with the National Acronautics and Space calculated as the corresponding linear combinations of the distribu- Administration Goddard Space Flight Center, Insurance for Space Studies. 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025. T. Takahashi is with the Lamont-Doherty Geologi- tions generated separately for each source or sink, and thus used to ea) Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964. select acceptable CO₂ source-sink scenarios. 23 MARCH topo ARTICLES 1431 Atmospheric Observations were divided into 2° by 2° "pixels". and the mean 4=CO₂ value for each pixel was computed separately for two seasonal periods, The Geophysical Monitoring for Climatic Change (GMCC) January through April and July through October (18) (Fig. 3). To division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimate the global distribution of ApCO2 during each of the two (NOAA) has been collecting air samples in flasks for CO2 analysis seasonal periods, we extrapolated the observed values into regions from more than 20 sites since 1980 (Table 1) (12). All flasks have where observations were lacking using relations between water been analyzed on the same nondispersive infrared analyzer in temperature and surface water pCO₂ observed in various oceano- Boulder, Colorado, and referenced to the international manometric graphic regimes (19). mole fraction scale (13) adopted for CO2 monitoring. The seasonal The net CO₂ flux (F) across the air-sca interface was computed cycles of CO2 concentration observed at these sites have been used from to estimate the seasonal net ecosystem production of the major terrestrial biomes of the world (10, 14). In this study we have used F = E₄pCO₂ = V₂SA₂CO₂ = (1) the average of the annual mean concentrations for 1981 to 1987 (Table 1 and Fig. 1). We have not used the data from all of the where E is the gas transfer coefficient, Vₚ is the gas transfer piston GMCC sites. Records from Niwot Ridge, Colorado, as well as velocity, and S is the solubility of CO2 in seawater; Vₚ depends on Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, were not used because mountain- turbulence in both media and hence on the wind speed, W. Because ous terrain is not resolved well in the transport model. Specifically, the effects of temperature on Vₚ and S nearly cancel each other, E is we do not know what effective model height to assign to these sites. mainly a function of wind speed alone. Measurements of Vₚ made At some other sites, such as Cape Meares, Oregon, the data are too under various wind regimes in the field and in wind runnels show noisy to extract annual averages with sufficient confidence. The data that Vp is nearly zero for W < 3 m They also show a wide range yield a large-scale meridional gradient that corresponds closely to of variation (abour a factor of 2) in Vₚ for W > 3 m s⁻¹, the cause those obtained by other atmospheric CO₂ monitoring programs of which is not clearly understood. For W > 3 m (the wind (14, 15). speed at 10 m above the sca surface), WE adopted the relation (20) E(moles of CO2 m⁻² year"' µatm⁻¹) IM 0.016 [W(m 5-1) - 3] Oceanic Observations and CO₂ Flux Estimates (2) The observed pCO₂ difference (ApCO₂) between the surface whereas E is taken to be zero for W < 3 m s⁻¹. This relation yields ocean and the atmosphere represents the thermodynamic driving Vₚ values slightly lower than the upper limit of the wind-tunnel data potential for transfer of CO2 gas across the sea surface and includes (21). For comparison, Liss and Merlivat [(22), see also (23)], using implicitly the combined effects of all the processes that influence the results of experiments in wind tunnels and in the field (24), chose CO₂ distribution in the oceans and atmosphere. We have analyzed values about one half of our values. If their values are adopted, the measurements of ApCO2 obtained from 1972 to 1989 (16) (Fig. 2). resulting CO₂ transfer flux would be halved for a given value of El Nino events, occurring irregularly every few years, reduce the ApCO2. CO₂ Aux from the Eastern and Central Equatorial Pacific waters to We calculated monthly values of E for every 2° by 2° pixel using virtually zero (17), but the equatorial measurements during the Eq. 2 and monthly climatological wind speeds compiled by Esben- 1982-1983 and 1986-1987 events have been excluded. The oceans sen and Kushnir (25). The resulting annual mean global value for E Table 1. Annual average concentrations of B2 above 300 ppmy (by 1987 and the year. In order B avoid biasing the global averages by the volume) in dry air. Years for which the date quality was deemed insufficient addition or omission of stations, the averages were calculated from third- have been omitted (dashes), and the lack of an ongoing program is indicated degree polynomial curve firs to the available yearly date. The reported SD is a by blanks. For the calculation of the 1981 to 1987 average, all years were measure of the variability of the annual averages at each erecion after first normalized to 1987 by adding the globally averaged difference between normalization to 1987. Name Code Location 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 Average SD South Pole SPO 90*5 38.5 39.3 40.7 42.2 43.6 44.6 46.8 46.59 .17 Halley Bay HBA 76°S, 26°W 41.2 - - 45.0 47.2 47.11 .23 Palmer Station PSA 65°S. 64°W 39.5 40.9 42.7 43.9 - 47.0 40.91 .13 Cape Grim CGO 41°S, 145°E 42.5 43.7 44.6 46.5 46.54 .11 Amsterdam Island AMS 38'5, 78°E 39.3 41.1 42.4 43.9 45.0 - 46.82 .20 Samoa SMO 14°S, 171°W 39.3 40.3 41.4 43.5 44,7 45.2 47.1 47.44 .27 Ascervion Island ASC 8°S, 14°W 39,8 40.7 42.6 43.9 45.0 45.8 48.1 48.07 .33 Seychelles SEY 5°S, 55"E 40.2 40.5 41.1 44.1 45.2 46.1 - 47.93 .41 Christmas Island CHR 2°N, 157"W 44.7 45.9 46.3 48.5 48.56 .32 Guam GMI 13°N, 146°E 41.0 42.7 44.4 46.0 - - 48.64 .19 Virgin Island AVI 18°N. 65°W 40.3 40.9 42.0 43.4 45.4 46.4 48.2 48.13 .28 Cape Kumukahi KUM 20°N, 155W 40.6 41.2 42.6 44.3 45.0 40.5 48.5 48.52 .14 Key Biscayne KEY 26°N, 80°W 45.2 46.7 47.6 49.5 49.47 .06 Midway MID 28°N, 177"W 47.6 49.7 49.61 .21 Assores AZR 39°N, 27°W 41.2 43.0 44.5 - - - 48.77 .21 Shemya Island SHM 53°N, 174°E 48.9 50.0 50.39 .52 Cold Bay CBA 55°N, 163°W 41.0 41.8 43.3 45.5 47.2 48.1 49.7 49.58 .34 Station "M" STM 66N, 2°E 41.8 42.1 43.1 45.5 46.5 48.2 48.8 49.49 .42 Point Barrow BRW 71% 157°W 41.4 42.6 43.7 45.4 46.4 48.6 49.5 49.73 .39 Mould Bay MBC 76°N, 119°W 41.8 42.4 43.6 45.6 46.7 48.0 49.8 49.85 .28 Alert ALT 83°N, 62"W 48.0 49.5 49.68 .25 Global average 40.00 40.65 42.03 43.91 45.27 46.26 48.10 48.10 1432 SCIENCE. VOL. 247 RCV BY:0A/LISD 3-27-90 3:17PM 1202 682 0816 4566569;# 3 Table 2. Estimates of sea-ro-air CO2 Aux (Gt of C per year) based on the the ApCO2 and the winds has been taken into account. The north Indian compilation of ApCO₂ in microsemospheres in various oceans (Fig. 3) and Ocean is included in the equatorial oceans. Extrapolation of ApCO₂ into transfer coefficients depending on wind speeds (sec texr). The seasonality of ocean areas with no measurements is based on water temperatures (19). January to April July to October Annual mean Ocean Location ApCO2 Flux ApCO2 Flux ApCO₂ Flux >50°N; 90°W to 20°E -22 -0.15 -53 -0.31 -37 -0.23 Atlancic subaratic 15°N to 50'N; 90°W to 20°E -29 -0.58 -1 -0.02 -15 -0.30 Adentic gyre -11 -0.14 14 0.33 2 -0,06 North Pacific 15°N; 110°E to 90°W 15*3 to 15°N; 180°W to 180°E 37 1.56 28 1.69 33 1.62 Equatorial 50°S to 15°S; 180°W to 180°E -9 -1.46 -25 -3.31 -17 -2.39 Southern 5yres Antarcric >50°S -23 -0.38 -10 -0.03 -17 -0.20 3 -1.5 - 1 -1.7 1 -1.6 Global is 0.067 mol of CO2 year-' µatm⁻¹, which is consistent with transport fields have been validated by the simulation of Inert racers the global mean CO2 gas exchange rare of 20 = 3 mol of CO₂ (27). For tracers with Northern Hemisphere mid-laricude sources, year⁻¹, based on the distribution of 14CO2 in the atmosphere and the interhemispherle exchange time has been adjusted via 4 subgrid oceans (21) (hence Eq. 2 is "empirical"). The ocean fluxes were diffusion parameterization to 1.0 year, intermediate berween what is caiculated from the seasonal ApCO2 maps (Fig. 3), Eq. 2, and the needed to march the observed north-south distributions of CFCs monthly climatological winds (25) (Table 2). This analysis gave a and "Kr (exchange times of 0.9 and 1.1 years, respectively). net CO₂ uptake of 1.6 Gt of C per year (1 Gt equals 10th 8), which Two-dimensional models based on transport coefficients derived corresponds to about 30% of the current rate of fossil futl (28) from the GCM developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics emissions. Laboratory (GFDL) have an interhemispheric exchange time for A rigorous error analysis for this estimate cannot be made at this 85Kr (11) nearly identical to that in the GISS model. An indepen- time, but most of the uncertainty is attributed to the sparsity of dara dent 3-D transport model based on analyzed winds, 25 obtained by in the South Pacific and South Indian oceans. In the North Pacific the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Ocean, where 26 trans-Pacific transects have been made during together with a convective vertical mixing scheme, gives an inter- various seasons from 1984 to 1989, the uncertainty in ApCO₂ due hemispheric transport time for 85Kr of 1.39 years (29). The calcular- to the finite number of samples can be estimated. We removed an ed verrically and hemispherically averaged difference between the east-west transect dara set (about 40 values) and computed pixel hemispheres for the fossil fuel source by the GISS model is the same values using the remaining data (about 260 values for a seasonal as that derived for a simple atmospheric two-box model with an map). after which we compared the values on the computed map with the removed transect. This comparison was made for three 352 separate data sets, representing transects across the northern high- 351 AMS laritude areas in summer and winter, respectively, and one across the COD 0115 S mid-iatitudes during the winter. The root-mean-square difference between individual computed and measured values was B µatm, 350 whereas the mean difference was about 1 paun. This result suggests good consistency between the transces and only minor statistical sampling enors in this ocean basin, but does not address possible Average CO2 concentration (ppen) 349 systematic crrors. A systematic error of 1 flatm in the annual average 348 4pCO₂ would lead to a total flux error of about 0.07 Gt of C per 347 year for the Aretic, North Atlantic. and North Pacific oceans combined. On the other hand, the same error in ApCO₂ for the 348 Southern Hemisphere oceans (south of 10°S) would cause an error in the net flux of about 0.15 Gt of C per year, mainly because of the is KUM U.I.M SILM 345 greater area. cu 344 1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 Transport Modeling with Surface Sources Sine of latitude and Sinks Flg. 1. Observed stmospheric CO₂ concentrations at the sires of the NOAA/GMCC fizsk network. The three-letter station codes are explained in We used a global 3-D atmospheric tracer model derived from the Table 1. The error bars represent 1 SD of the annual averages at each site general circulation model (GCM) developed at Goddard Institute after adjustment to 1987. Curve (a) is a least-squares cubic polynomial fit TO for Space Studies (GISS) of the National Aeronautics and Space the data. The residual SD of the points with respect to the curve is 0.39 ppm. The concentration distributions at the NOAA/GMCC sites have also been Administration (26) to model the distribution of CO2 in the calculated with the NASA/GISS GCM transport fields. Other curves are atmosphere. The 3-D model is fully seasonal in terms of its transport polynomial fies to the calculated CO₂ distributions (not shown) with fossil and mixing characteristics (including parameterized diffusion) as fuel emissions. sessonal vegetation (no net annual source or sink), tropical well as in the sources and sinks of CO2- The parent GCM has diurnal deforestation of 0.3 Gt of C per year, and three different cases of ocean and seasonal cycles. and four hourly mass fluxes, as well as monthly uprake: (c), the compilation of CO2 uptake based on the ApCO₂ dara (Table 2) and our empirical transfer cosificients; (b), CO₂ upeake based on the same averaged convective frequencies, were saved for the tracer transport ApCO2 map, bur calculated with the Liss-Merlivar (22) relation for air-sca model. In addition to producing realistic simulations of the large- exchange; (d), an carlier estimare of ocean uptake (21) rotaling 2.6 Gt of C scale features of the general circulation of the atmosphere, the GCM per year. 23 MARCH 1990 ARTICLES 1433 RCV BY:0A/LISD 3-27-90 3:18PM ;202 682 0816 45665691# 4 interhemispheric exchange time of 1 year. Also, our two-dimension- modeled annual oscillations are similar to those observed at the al model based on the transport derived from the GFDL GCM gave surface sampling sites, as well as to those found in aircraft data from a virtually identical result. Scandinavia, Japan, Australia (Fig. 4), and from various latirudes in The GISS transport model has been used to simulare the effects of the Northern Hemisphere at 500 and 700 mbar (31). seasonal CO2 exchange with the terrestrial biosphere (30). The The covariance of seasonal transport and seasonal CO2 sources and sinks may lead to annually averaged concentration differences between different sites, both in the model and in the atmosphere, even in the absence of net annual sources: If transport is less vigorous during the season when a surface region is a source rather than when it is a sink, a positive net annual concentration anomaly will result. With purely seasonal annually balanced sources, the GISS 3.D model calculates annual mean concentrations for the GMCC sites in the Northern Hernisphere that are on average 0.25 ppm higher than for the sites in the Southern Hemisphere, whereas a 2-D model (11) gives a difference of only 0.05 ppm. There are no independent tracers to validate this aspect of the models. The most important reason for the difference is the summer-to-winter variabil- ity of vertical convective mixing at high latitudes. The greater vertical stability in winter would tend to keep the respired CO2 closer to the ground, which would result in higher annual average Flg. 2. The distribution of measurements of 4PCO₂ since 1972. Where observations were made quasi-continuously, the values have been averaged surface CO2 concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere. over 2° intervals in longitude and latitude, and each of these intervals is We used the 3-D model to test hypotheses about global CO₂ represented by a single dot on the map. budgets, constructed as linear combinations of separate source-sink Flg. 3. Observed ApCO2 (in mi- croatmospheres) between surface waters of the oceans and the atmo- sphere during two seasonal periods, (A) January through April and (B) July through October. These maps have been compiled from direct ob. servations made since 1972 (Fig. 2) and represent the mean distribu- tions during the past 16 years, ex- cluding the Ei Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific. Areas of ice cover are indicated in light gray. I434 SCIENCE, VOL. 247 REV MA/LISD 3-27-90 3:19PM 202 682 0816 45665691# patterns. We first calculated the CO2 distribution for each source (22); this scenario results in 2 total ocean uprake of only 0.8 Gt of C separately by running the model with that source for 3 years, during per year, in which case an extra sink of 1.8 Gt of C per year is which the annual average concentration gradients became stabilized. required. In the third. we ser the global net ocean sink to 2.6 Gt of C The CO2 distributions computed for the last year of the simulations per year (21). thus balancing the budget. were used in our analyses. As a sign convention, fluxes into the The simulated difference in atmospheric CO2 between the north atmosphere (sources) are positive, fluxes from the atmosphere and south poles resulting exclusively from fossil fuel combustion (sinks) negative. For any hypothesized global budget to be accept- without any CO2 sinks was 4.4 ppm. The uncertainty in the CO₂ able, it must satisfy two observational criteria: first, the total production from fossil fuel combustion is estimated to be between 6 atmospheric inventory must increase by 3.0 Gt of C per year and 10% (33), and about 5% (34) of the fuel carbon is only partially (corresponding to 1.4 ppm per year), and second, the correspond- oxidized to CO during combustion. This CO is oxidized in the ing linear combination of the modeled response distributions must atmosphere by reaction with OH radicals, which are concentrated at reasonably resemble the observed atmospheric concentration differ- lower latirudes. This effect is neglected in the scenario, so that the ences at the stations. calculated pole-to-pole gradient for fossil fuel combustion alone The residuals, departures of the modeled annual average CO₂ could be berween 3.8 to 4.6 ppm. The seasonal terrestrial CO₂ concentrations from those observed at the GMCC sites, were fit exchange and cropical deforestation together are calculated a add with 2 third-order polynomial and with a straight line. In this way another 0.6 PPm to the poie-to-pole gradient. The inclusion of the we were looking for consistent patterns of disagreement between oceanic sink, acting strongly in the Southern Hemisphere, resulted the model and the data, because we did not want to adjust sources in a meridional gradient between both poles of 5.7 to 7.3 ppm, solely on the basis of discrepancies at single points. A source depending on the ocean scenario. These values are contradicted in all scenario is considered not plausible if the slope of the linear fit or any structure in the polynomial fit is statistically significant. The linear slope constraint requires that the strength of extratropical A sources and sinks in the Northern relative to those in the Southern Troposphere Hemisphere be determined to within about 0.2 Gt of C per year. > 9km 7 to 9 km A Test of Some Current Views of the CO2 Budget 8 to 7 km The geographical distribution of fossil fuel combustion (32) was combined with several global compilations of CO₂ exchange with 3.5 to 5.5 km 3 to 5 km the oceans and the terrestrial biosphere. The fossil fuel source was 5.3 Gt of C per year. typical of that from 1980 9 1987, when the global fossil fuel consumption remained fairly constant. Seasonal 1 to 3 km exchange with the terrestrial biosphere (30) was included although it 10 ppm 1 ppm does not affect the global budget. Tropical deforestation was assumed to be a source of 0.3 Gt of C per year, at the low end of the release estimates. Three ocean estimates were tested. In the first, our J F M A M J J À S o N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N D ocean data analysis presented above (Table 2) was used, and in this Month Month case an additional CO2 sink of 1 Gt of C per year is required to balance the budger because the observed atmospheric increase is 3.0 Fig. 4. Comparison of the observed (31) (solid line) and GISS-model calculated (30) (dashed line) annual cycle of CO₂ at different alritudes in the Gt of C per year. In the second, the ApCO₂ values were combined troposphere over (A) Scandinavia (67%, 20°E) and (B) Bass Strait (40°S. with the air-sea transfer coefficients proposed by Liss and Merlivat 150'E). Table 3. Four modeled secnarios of the global atmospheric cycle. Flaxes are terrestrial biosphere have been postulated, uptake by the oceans is adjusted in units of gigatons of C per year and ApCO, is in microstmaspheres. The to minimize the SD (in parts per million, last line) of the residual differences terrestrial sources and sinks correspond to the basis functions: (i) tropical between the observed and calculated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. The deforestation, (ii) carbon sequestering by temperate ecosystems, and (iii) required annual average ДрСО₂ is estimated for ocean basins with empirical CO₂ fertilization (see text). Fossil fuel combustion and the seasonality of the air-sea gas transfer coefficients. terrestrial biosphere is included in all cases. After fluxes to and from the Source or sink Scenario 1, Scenario 2, Scenario 3. Scenario 4. Aux ApCO2 flux AsCO2 flux ApCO2 flux ApCO2 Tropical deforestation 0.3 0.3 2.0 2.0 Temperate ecosystem uptake 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 CO2 fertilization 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 Total terrestrial 0.3 -0.7 2.0 1.0 North Atlantic (>50°N) -0.7 -72 -0.5 -52 -0,7 -72 -0.5 -52 North Atlantic gyre (15° to 50°N) -1.0 -52 -0.8 -42 -1.4 -73 -1.0 -52 North Pacific gyre (>15°N) -1.0 -24 -0.7 -17 -1.4 -34 -1.0 -24 Equatorial (15'5 to 15°N) 1.0 22 1.0 22 1.0 22 1.0 22 Combined southern gyres (15° to 50°3) -1.4 -14 -1.1 -11 -2.3 -23 -2.3 -23 Antarcric (>50°5) 0.5 9 0.5 9 0.5 9 0.5 9 Toral oceans -2.6 -1.6 -4.3 -3.3 SD of residuals 0.25 0.24 0.26 0.25 22 MARCH zopo ARTICLES 1435 RCV Y:0A/LISD 3-27-90 20PM 202 682 0816 4566569:# 6 cases by the atmospheric data (Fig. 1) which exhibit a difference of 1 only 3.0 ppm: What is wrong? In order to decrease the modeled a 0 gradient due to the fossil fuel source alone, either the extratropical 0 net sink in the Northern Hemisphere must be larger than in the 0 do DO Southern Hemisphere, or there is a serious problem with the 1 simulations of stmospheric transport in the GCM. 0 The annually averaged interhemispheric transport in the GCM is this part of the uncertainty in the calculated pole-to-pale concentra- co₂ (ppm) o 80 0 constrained by the 85Kr and CFC calibrations, and we estimate that 0 o 0 0 tion gradient is 10% or less. The behavior of the seasonal cycle of CO₂ as a function of altitude is well represented by the model (30, 0 0 31) in the few places where data are available. Inverse calculations with two-dimensional transport models (11) have similarly shown 1 0 that the sink of CO2 needs to be substantially larger in the Northern 0 08 Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. As the peak-to- & 0 trough amplitude of the mean Northern Hernisphere CO2 annual cycle is about 8 ppm, ir is unlikely that covariation of this seasonal 2 1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 source and seasonal transport could produce a north-south counter- gradient 25 large as 3 to 4 ppm to allow the southern oceans to be Sine of latitude the dominant sink of fossil fuel CO2, Therefore, the presence of a Pig. 5. Results of model calculations (scenario 1, Table 3) of the atmospheric large sink of C in the Northern Hemisphere is at more likely cause for CO₂ concentrations at the GMCC sites (squares and dashed curve) are the discrepancy than problems with the model transport. compared with the observed concentrations (circles and solid curve). All values are relative to the global mean. The curves are least-squares cubic polynomial fits; the differences between the curves are nor statistically significant. CO₂ Patterns from Single Source Regions Before we discuss CO₂ source-sink scenarios, that is, linear of NPP if ecosystem respiration remained the same. This amount is combinations of sources and sinks that sacisfy the two constraints, easily within the uncertainties of global NPP estimates (36). we describe the series of "basis" sources and simulations of the In the simulations we took into account the covariance of the corresponding CO2 response distributions made with the 3-D annually balanced seasonal CO₂ exchange (30) with terrestrial plants model. Atmospheric CO2 patterns were calculated separately for (no net annual flux) and the seasonality of the transport as a separate eight oceanic source regions: the equatorial oceans between 15"N "basis" source scenario. The Inclusion of this scenario significantly and 15°S, the North Pacific gyre north of 15"N, the North Atlantic improved the comparison between the modeled and the observed north of 50°N, the North Atlantic gyre berween 15°N and 50°N, the concentrations with respect to the longitudinal variability. South Adantic, Scuth Pacific and Indian ocean gytes each between 15°S and 50°S, and the Antarctic Ocean south of 50°S. In each of these cases the source was assumed, as a first approximation, to be Adjustment of Oceanic Uptake to Terrestrial constant in time and uniformly distributed in its respective area. The Scenarios resulting concentration patterns were as expected: for example, if there is a CO₂ source of 1 Gt of C per year in the North Aclantic After we specified a priori certain combinations of gain and loss of gyre, the CO2 concentrations at AZR, KEY. and AVI (Table 1) C on the continents, uptake by the oceans was adjusted in each case stand our from values at Pacific stations at similar latitudes by about until satisfactory agreement with the atmospheric observations was 0.6 ppm. To reduce the number of independent variables, we obtained. The four scenarios (Table 3 and Fig. 5) all fit the assumed that the fluxes were proportional to area in the three acmospheric observations equally well; these data by themselves do southern ocean gyres, and we held the equatorial ocean source fixed not permit us to determine whether any one is more likely. In firting at 1 Gt of C per year (21). We then had five ocean areas left as the data, we could, to a limited extent, trade off uptake of C by variables, the North Atlantic, the two north temperate gyres, the terrestrial ecosystems against uprake by the oceans, for example, combined southern gyres, and the waters around Antarctica. boreal forest and tundra ecosystems against the North Atlancic. We considered four "basis functions" of net annual CO₂ exchange Monitoring techniques need to be developed for and extended to with the cerrestrial biosphere: (i) net release due to deforestation in the continental interiors to preclude such freedom in modeling and the tropies (3); (ii) C sequestering by temperate ecosystems; (iii) to pinpoint the source-sink distributions much more definitively. storage of C by high latitude boreal ecosystems; (iv) and a hypo- The disagreement with Table 2 for the uptake of CO2 by the thetical sink due to enhanced net photosynthesis, which is referred southern oceans stems mainly from the limited number of A2CO₂ to as CO2 fertilization. For the second basis function, the C sink was observations in the high-latirude waters near Antarctica. The atmo- uniformly distributed among locations associated with cold-decidu- spheric data seem to indicate that there is a CO2 source in the waters ous forests (13 x 106 km2); similarly for the chird, the sink was around Antarcrica. This estimate for the Antarctic waters rests on distributed among evergreen needle-leaved forests and woodlands the concentration difference between HBA and PSA on the one (12 X 10⁶ km²) and tundra (7 X 10⁶ km²). Carbon sequestering in hand and SPO, CGO, and AMS on the other hand (Fig. 1). Recent these regions may be through processes such as reforestation (35) or occanographic measurements (37) appear to have provided some accumulation of organic matter in soils. For the fourth sink, we confirmation for the presence of a CO₂ source (Fig. 3B). assumed that the net fertilization is proportional to net primary Atmospheric CO2 concentrations at AVI, KEY, and AZR (Table productivity (NPF); thus, this sink is Intense in tropical regions 1) in the Atlantic relative to KUM and MID in the Pacific suggest because of their high NPP (56). A global ferrilization effect of 1 Gr that the average pCO₂ of the North Pacific should be higher than of C per year, for example, would represent an increase of only 2% the North Atlantic. The ApCO₂ observations confirm this (Fig. 3). 1416 SCIENCE, VOL. 247 0010 455555914 All of the scenarios (Table 3), however, are equally unrealistic The modeled CO2 gradients are not very sensitive to the magni- because the mean annual ApCO₂ required for the Northern Hemi- tude of tropical deforestation because the GMCC sites are remore sphere oceans is much greater than observed (Fig. 3). The discrep- from deforestation activities and the released CO2 is dispersed ancy is much larger than can be explained by the uncertainty in the rapidly via vigorous vertical mixing, If the release of CO2 from ApCO₂ data. Use of the gas exchange rates of Liss and Merlivar (22) tropical forest destruction is balanced by the fertilization effect, half would double this discrepancy. of the extra CO₂ is taken up in the tropics themselves, and thus smaller amounts of carbon uptake are required at temperate latitudes in both hemispheres. A large amount of tropical deforestation Adjustment of Terrestrial Exchange to (scenario 8, Table 4) can only be accommodated if CO2 fertilization is 2 strong sink, so that the modeled tropical CO2 concentrations do Observed ApCO₂ not become significantly larger than those observed. Because of the conflict of the ApCO₂ required by the foregoing We have not included in the simulations the atmospheric oxida- scenarios and the observed 4pCO2 of the northern oceans, we tion of CO, which produces a total of 0.85 = 0.25 Gt of C per year constructed several scenarios in which CO2 fluxes in better known of CO₂ (34). Simulations with a two-dimensional model of a oceanic regions were kept fixed (with linear interpolation for the laritudinal and seasonal distribution of CO oxidation totaling 1 Gt intervening months), namely uptake by the northern oceans and of C per year globally (38) suggest that a broad maximum in CO2 CO2 ourgassing from the equatorial oceans (Table 2). Exchange concentrations forms at 30°N that decreases by 0,3 ppm toward the with the terrestrial ecosystems and with the southern oceans was South Pole and by 0.15 ppm toward the North Pole. The inclusion varied to produce agreement with the atmospheric data. of this process would have reinforced the need for E northern mid- Several types of scenarios (four are presented in Table 4) all latitude sink. As a related problem, a small part of the terrestrial sink agreed about equally well with the atmospheric data. The constraint for CO2 that we infer will not contribute to C storage on the land of the observed north-south gradient imposes two important com- because C is recycled by the biosphere into reduced volatile com- mon fearures. First, a large terrestrial sink at northern temperate pounds that are oxidized, often via CO, to CO2 in the atmosphere. latitudes is necessary, and second, total CO₂ uptake by the oceans is considerably less than uptake by terrestrial systems. The total terrestrial sink at high northern and temperate latitudes (including Conclusions its share of the global CO2 fertilization) varies between 2.0 and 2.7 Gt of C per year in the four scenarios. The sum of the temperate and From 1981 to 1987 atmospheric CO₂ increased at an average rate high-latitude sources and sinks is tightly constrained, but the two of 3.0 Gt of C per year. The release of CO2 from fossil fuel burning can be traded off against one another to some extent. However, a (5.3 Gt of C per year) and land USC modification (0.4 to 2.6 Gt of C large temperate sink requires a smaller high-latitude source to per year) is being partially balanced by the uptake of CO2 by the prevent the modeled CO₂ concentration at arctic sites from becom- oceans and by terrestrial ecosystems. Observations and simulations ing too low. of the meridional gradient of CO2 in the atmosphere suggest that The following scenarios were unsuccessful: The additional ab- these sinks are larger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the sorption of more than a few tenths of a gigaton of C by high latitude Southern Hemisphere. ecosystems or the Arctic Ocean resulted in predicted concentrations The atmospheric gradient constrains the combined uptake by the for the rive northernmost stations that were too low. Balancing the southern ocean gyres and Antarctic waters to be from 0.6 to 1.4 Gt global budget by uptake via CO₂ fertilization proportional to NPP of C per year. In consideration of the large data base of seasonal (and no tropical deforestation) left the concentrations at equatorial ApCO₂ measurements in the surface waters of the Northern Hemi- latirudes too low; half of the NPP takes place in the tropics, so that sphere, the uncertainties in ApCO₂ are most likely not large enough the area would in that case act as a net sink for CO2. to accommodate the values of C removal required without a large Table 4. Four modeled scenarios of the global atmospheric C cycle in which atmospheric observations. The estimates of uptake by the oceans are based uprake by the northern and equatorial occans is held fixed. Fluxes are in units on observed sessonal ApCO₂ values, monthly climatological winds and two of Gt of C per yezr. Equatorial ocean ourgassing is lower than in Table 2 by sets of air-sea gas transfer coefficients, our empirical relation (Emp), and the 0.32 Gt of C per year to take into account El Niño episodes occurring about Liss-Merlivat (22) relation (LM). In the latter case the equatorial oceanic once every 4 years. After the rate of tropical deforestation has been source is smaller, 50 that less uprake is required at temperate larirudes in both postulated, CO₂ exchange with terrestrial ecosystems and the southern hernispheres to balance the budget. oceans is varied (indicated by asterisk) to produce agreement with the Scenario S Scenario 6 Scenario 7 Scenario 8 Source or sink Emp LM Emp LM Emp LM Emp LM Tropical deforestation 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.5 2.5 CO2 fertilization* 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -3.0 -3.0 Temperate uptake* -2.0 -2.0 -3.0 -2.9 -2.3 -2.0 -1.9 -1.9 Boreal source* 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.7 Total terrestrial -2.0 -2.0 -1.6 -1.5 -1.9 -1.8 -1.7 -1.7 Arctic and sub-arctic (>50'N) -0.23 -0,12 -0.23 -0.12 -0.23 -0.12 -0.23 -0.12 Combined northern gyres (15'N to 50"N) -0.30 -0.18 -0.36 -0.18 -0.36 -0.18 -0.36 -0.18 Equatorial (15°S to 16°N) 1.30 0.65 1.30 0.65 1.30 0.65 1.30 0.65 Combined southern gyres* (50°S to 50°S) -1.5 -1.1 -1.9 -1.6 -1.6 -1.3 -1.8 -1.4 Antarctic (>50°S) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0,5 0.5 Total oceans -0,3 -0.3 -0.7 -0.8 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 SD of residuals (ppm) 0.26 0.28 0.27 0.29 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.29 23 MARCH 1990 ARTICLES 1437 RCV BY:0A/LISD 3-27-90 28PM 202 682 0816 45665691# 1 terrestrial sink. We infer that the global ocean sink is at most 1 Gt of longitude or ladrade interval WEE computed and used as 1 dats paint (Fig. 2). The C per year. Our analysis thus suggests that there must be a terrestrial 4,CO2 values were obtained by subtracting the stmospheric pCO₂ values at nearby locations from the oceanie values. WE computed the values by using sink at temperate lacitudes to balance the carbon budget and to the mole fraction concereration in dry air (measured with the same instrument as match the north-south gradient of atmospheric CO2, The mecha- that used for pCO₂ measurements in sea water). the barometric pressure, and the nism of this C sink is unknown; its magnitude appears to be as large securated water vapor pressure & see surface temperature. 17. R. A, Feely of al., J. Graphys. Res. 92, 6546 (1987). as 2.0 to 3.4 Gt of C per year, depending on the sources in the 18. The measured values were weighted inversely proportional to the aquare of the tropical and the boreal and tundra regions. distance from the center of the pixcl, and those obtained in different years were weighted equally: AoCO. values in pixels with no measurements, but surrounded The global C cycle is not well understood. Unraveling the by pixels with measured ApCO₂ values, were estimated in gyre areas by linear contemporary CO2 cycle and the development of future mitigation interpolation in both latitude and longitude. In the equatorial zone, where currents strategies requires a concerted measurement program to determine are dominated by sonal flows, the value interpolated along the same laritude was used. the seasonal fluxes of CO₂ berween the atmosphere, land, and 19. To extrapolate ASCO, values into areas where measurements were not available oceans. Our hypothesis suggests that annually averaged ApCO₂ (black areas in Rig. 2), the seawater PCO₂ was assumed B be a function of values in the combined southern oceans are small negative values. temperature alone. The following temperature coefficients were determined on the bests of the measurements made during various seasons and are assumed to be Collection of data on air-sea exchange of CO2 in these areas in all Independent of issure: 1.6% - in the weatern North Adantic (10'N to 40"N) seasons should be given high priority. Understanding the role of the and the south Indian Oceans (10'S to 34'S); 2.3% 'C⁻' in the South Atlantic (10'S to 34°S) and South Pacific (10°S B 84°S); 4.3% 'C⁻¹ in the castem North land in the C budget must include a reanalysis of the contribution of Pacific (10°N to J4N, 64°W to 154°W); 1.2% "C"I in the Southern Ocean (34'S mid-latitude reforestation as well as studies of the feedbacks between to 62°S). The climatological too surface temperature data complied by S. Levitus ecosystem functioning, climate, and atmospheric composition. [Climatological Atlas of the World Ocean, NOAA Prof. Pap. 13, pp. 173 (1982)] were used. In the Pacific coastal areas along the Central and South Americas, where The atmosphere integrates the fluxes from all sources and sinks. It high ApCO₂ values occur because of upwelling of deep water, the ApCO2 date thus contains the large-scale signatures of CO2 source arcas that are obtained outside the two sessonal periods have been used with the assumption that often highly variable, and therefore hard to measure, on smaller the values do act change seasonally. 20. T.H. Peng and T. Takahashi. in Biogeochamity of CO, and the Greethouse Effect, M. scales. Data from the present international nerwork of CO2 moni- P. Farrell, Ed. (Am. Chem. Sec. Symp., CRC/Lewis, Boca Raton, FL, in press). toring sires, located almost exclusively in occanic areas, cannot be 21. W. S. Brocuker " al., 1. Geophys. Res. 91. 10517 (1986); T. Takahashi at al., Seasonal and Geographic Variability of Carbon Dioxide Sink/Source in the Oceanic Areas used to resolve longitudinal gradients, and thus identification of the (Tech. Rip. for Cour. MRETTA 19X-89675C. Lamont-Doherty Geological Obser. important source-sink areas is currently difficult. In addition, high- vatory, Palisades, NY, 1986); H.C. Broecker, J. Petermann, W. Siems, J. Mar. precision measurements of the large-scale variations of 13C/12C Res. 86, 595 (1978). ratios in CO₂ and the concentration of atmospheric O₂ are needed 22. P. Line and L. Merlivar, in The Role of Air-Sra Exchange in Geschemical Cycling. P. Buar-Menard, Ed. (Adv. Sri. Inst. Ser. 185, Reidel, Hingham, 1986), PP. 113-127. to untangle the contributions of the land and oceans. Their formulation of the wind-spacd-dependent gas exchange is E - 0.00048W for 0 s W 5 3.6 m REFERENCES AND NOTES E = 0.0083() - 3.39) for 3.6 K W = 13 m 1-1 E . 0,017(w - 8,26) for We 13 m 1. R. 2. Dickinson and R. I. Cicerone, Nature 319. 109 (1986): y, Ramanachan, 23. J. Escheto and L. Meriivat. J. Geophys. Res. 93, 18669 (1988). If high-frequency Science 240. 293 (1988): J. Hancen " al., J. Coophys. Res. 9a, 9341 (1988). wind speed data are used with the Lise-Merlivet relation. the sessonal mean gas 2. G. Marland et al., Eximates of CO₂ Extissions from Fassil Puel Burning and Cement transfer rate would increase of high Insirudes by about 25% in the northern occars Manufacturing (Oak Ridge Notl. Lab. Rep. ORNL/CDIAC-25. National Technical and by 50% in the southern oceans because of the nonlinear character of the Information Service. Springfield, VA. 1980). relation [J. Etchero and L. Merlivat, Adv. Space Res. 9, 141 (1989)]. 3. B. Bolin. Science 196. 613 (1977); G. M. 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(Wiley, al., Men. Weather Rev. 111. 609 (1983). The version used in this study and in (30) New York 1981). PP. 326-354 L. H. Allen " al., Glob. Diageochem. Cyc. 1. 1 has 4° by 6' resolution and has improved simulation of the higher moment statistics (1987). of the general circulation. 6. W. S. Broecker, T. Takahashi, H. J. Simpson, T.-H. Peng, Science 206, 409 27. M. Prather, M. McElroy. S. Wofsy. G. Russell. D. Rind, J. Comploys. Rev. 92. 6579 (1070). (1987); D. J. Jacob, M. J. Prather, S. C. Wotly. M. B. McElroy, loid.. p. 6614. 7. C.D. Keeling, in Chemistry of the Lower Atmosphere. S. I. Rasool. Ed. (Plenum, New 28. R. A. Plumb and J. D. Mahiman, 1. Atmas. Sci. 44, 298 (1987). York, 1973). PP. 251-329; H. Oeschger, U. Siegenthaler. U. Schotterer. A. 29. M. Heimann and C. D. Keeling. in Aspects of Climer Vanability In the Parific and the Gugalmann. Tellus 27. 168 (1975); R. Bacastow and A. Bjorkstrom. in Carbon Western Americas, D. H. Peterson, Ed. (Comphysical Monugraph 55. 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Guenther and C. D. Kacling, Scripps Refirmer Gar Calibration System for CO₂. 38. P. Legan, personal communication. Standards: Revision of 1985 (Scripps Institute of Oceanography. La Jolla. CA, 39. We chank T. Conway, X. Mararie, K. Thoning, and L. Waterman for obtaining the 1985)]. atmospheric data of the NOA/GMCC Bask network. and many people at the field 14. G. 1. Pearman and 2. Hyson. J. Attres. Chem. &, 81 (1986). sites for collecting the air samples over the years. 3. John executed 3.D model runs 15. C. D. Keeiing and M. Heimann. J. Geophys. Res. 91. 7782 (1986). and, together with ]. Jonas and P. Pairner, provided support for the color graphics. 16. The data base used consists mainly of the measurements obtained by the Lumont- Assistance by D. Chipman, 1. Goddard, S. Sucherland, and E. A. Takahashi is Doherty Geological Observatory. This has been supplemented by data in the North appreciated. 1. Gammon and E. Garvey contributed their data to this ready. This Atlantic by M. Roos and G. Gravenhorst 11. Crophys. Res. 89. 8181 (1924)]; in work has been supported by the Geophysical Monitoring for Climatic Change the equatorial Atlantic by C. Andrie, C. Oudot, C. Geathon, and L. Merlivat (ibid. division of NOAA, the National Science Foundation, Martin Marietta's Carbon 91. 11,741 (1984)]; and in the North and Souch Pacific oceans and the eastern Dioxide Information Analysis and Research program for the U.S. Department of Indian Ocean by R. Gammon (personal communication]. When measurements Energy under contract DE-AC05-84OR21400, and the EXXON Research and were made continuously with 1 flow-through equilibrator, a mean value for each 2" Engineering Company. 1438 SCIENCE, VOL 247 DRAFT NATIONAL TREE TRUST INTRODUCTION LETTER -- PRESIDENT BUSH TAB A EXECUTIVE SUMMARY TAB B INCORPORATORS TAB C NATIONAL TREE TRUST ACT C1 Background -- Link to America the Beautiful C2 FY 1991 Budget Narrative -- America the Beautiful C3 National Tree Trust Act of 1990 C4 Fact Sheet TAB D MISSION STATEMENT TAB E ORGANIZATIONAL STRATEGY TAB F PROPOSED ACTION PLAN TAB G CONTACTS X TAB DRAFT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The President's Tree Planting Foundation President Bush has a record of strong support for employing tree planting as a progressive pollution fighting method, including six presidential tree planting events. As a part of the America the Beautiful initiative, the President's budget proposal recommends a yearly $175 million dollar tree planting program to be administered by the Department of Agriculture. In the first year only, a portion of these funds, $35 million, will be granted to a private tree planting foundation. Proposed legislation will be submitted to authorize the President to designate a charitable nonprofit tree planting foundation to receive the funds. The foundation's purpose is to raise upwards of an additional $500 million for the planting of trees throughout America. The funds will be used to support community based, volunteer oriented, forestation efforts. The initiative will be similar in concept to the Statue of Liberty restoration venture, with added emphasis on individual participation. Two of the President's more popular themes, reawakening the spirit of community service and improving the environment, will be melded together in a successful symbiotic alliance. If enacted, the legislation will allow the President to choose a foundation to receive the $35 million in Federal funds. The Office of the White House Counsel and the Department of Justice have advised that the designated foundation needs to be private, but that the White House can assist and advise the founders. As an incorporator, the President asked for your assistance in establishing a foundation to be called the National Tree Trust and seeks your leadership, as a Director, in implementing the objectives of the Trust. The White House has prepared this briefing book containing background material, the National Tree Trust Act of 1990 as drafted, a suggested action plan, a synopsis of the Trust's mission and goals and other informational material to be used by you and the other incorporators at your discretion, in establishing and operating the Trust. As the initial board, you, with the other incorporators, will also be choosing additional Directors, with advice from the White House, creating a governing board which is non-partisan in composition. Through Presidential remarks, participating Presidential events, and White House cooperation, this private non-profit foundation will be informally regarded by the public as the President's foundation. The National Tree Trust will provide the institutional framework for the President's efforts to encourage private tree planting at the local level. DRAFI The National Tree Trust will begin operations, including fund-raising (individual and industry commitments are already significant), upon incorporation. With the authority provided by legislation, the President will designate the National Tree Trust as the recipient of the $35 million in Federal funds. Should the legislation not pass, the National Tree Trust will successfully continue its mission through private donations. of the White House staff will assist you, as needed, in the weeks ahead. Please contact at should you have any questions or comments concerning material in the briefing book or relating to the National Tree Trust in general. TAB B INCOR PORATORS (To be completed) TAB C C1 DRA NATIONAL TREE TRUST AND THE AMERICA THE BEAUTIFUL INITIATIVE The President's FY 1991 America the Beautiful Initiative has been proposed to address the protection, conservation and enhancement of America's natural resources. The initiative includes three components, cutting across the Interior and Agriculture Departments. These components are (1) expanded Federal recreational land acquisition, which involves both departments; (2) a National tree planting and forest improvement initiative, to be administered by Agriculture; and (3) an Interior Department resource protection and recreation enhancement effort, called "Legacy '99". The National Tree Planting and Forest Improvement Program at USDA is a part of the new America the Beautiful account in the Forest Service budget. The tree-planting initiative includes $175 million to pursue the goal of planting a billion trees a year on private lands. The initiative includes two basic components to be coordinated by USDA, a rural component to address reforestation of private, non-industrial lands and a Community Trees initiative. Within rural areas, the budget provides $110 million to USDA for cost-sharing and technical assistance with private landowners to plant, improve and maintain trees on suitable lands. The program will be implemented through existing delivery mechanisms within USDA and through state forestry agencies. For Community Trees, the budget includes $30 million to USDA to provide leadership, coordination and technical assistance to support tree planting and care in community and urban environments. This program also will rely on the existing technical assistance delivery system with the Forest Service working through State Foresters and other operators. Both components will be carried out under existing authorities. In concert with the President's tree planting initiative, the budget also proposes the one-time capitalization of a private, non-profit foundation to promote public awareness, solicit financial and non-financial support and to mobilize a spirit of volunteerism to further the President's tree-planting goals. Legislation will be submitted to authorize the President to make a grant of $35 million to a designated foundation. Following this initial capitalization, the $35 million would be reallocated to other components of the Tree Initiative in years 1992 through 1995 at USDA. C2 120 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1991 EXERCISING RESPONSIBLE STEWARD- volve all Americans in strengthening the Na- SHIP OF AMERICA'S NATURAL RE- tion's natural resource heritage; and his firm SOURCES commitment to providing responsible steward- ship of the country's natural assets for the America the Beautiful benefit of generations to come. President Theodore Roosevelt began this The budget contains a new initiative, century by directing the Nation's attention to "America the Beautiful", that underscores the protection of valuable public lands-Amer- these Presidential priorities. It would finance ica's treasure trove of parks, wildlife refuges, expanded land acquisition for the national forests, and rangelands. It was Roosevelt who parks, wildlife refuges, forests, and other identified "the conservation of natural re- public lands. It would launch a new national sources and their proper use" as a national program of reforestation. And it would provide problem of fundamental concern. substantial funds for enhanced recreation, and As the end of the century approaches, it is protection and restoration of key natural re- appropriate that its final decade be one in sources, under a program called "Legacy which conservation, enhancement, and protec- '99"-a reflection of the Administration's tion of these irreplaceable national assets rises desire to leave behind a legacy in which these to the forefront of national concerns. The 1991 natural resource assets have been restored by budget reflects the President's support for ap- the end of the century. The budget supports propriate expansion and proper maintenance the America the Beautiful initiative by propos- of the Nation's parks, refuges, forests, and ing a 75 percent increase in funding for these other public lands; his determination to in- activities above 1990 levels. AMERICA THE BEAUTIFUL (Budget authority in millions of dollars) Funding Summary 1990 1991 Proposed increase Land Acquisition 215 250 +35 Reforestation - 175 +175 Legacy '99 146 205 +59 Total, America the Beautiful 361 630 + 269 Land Acquisition.-The President believes and increase the value of the assets passed on that America's national system of parks, wild- to future generations. life refuges, forests, and other public lands The 1991 budget proposes to expand this pro- should be expanded and passed on in better gram of acquiring high priority lands by creat- shape than they are now. ing a new America the Beautiful fund. Funds In 1990, the Administration proposed new for land acquisition would be provided, as in funds for the first time in several years for the past, through annual appropriations from Federal acquisition of lands with particularly the Land and Water Conservation Fund. The high value for the environment and for recrea- America the Beautiful initiative would fund tion purposes. The $215 million program to the purchase of $1 billion of key land and which the President and the Congress agreed water resources over the next 4 years. will preserve these lands for public purposes III.F. PROTECTING THE ENVIRONMENT 121 The America the Beautiful fund will also be wildlife, trees can be a "sink" for carbon diox- able to join in partnership with private parties ide emissions-and thus can help to address and State and local governments to maximize any effect that increases in CO2 emissions from the significance of the purchases it makes and human activities may have. the overall value of land set aside for public purposes. Trees are roughly 50 percent carbon. As they grow, trees remove carbon from the air Concurrent with the submission of this and store it as plant tissue. A single forest tree budget, the Administration will propose to the absorbs 26 pounds of carbon dioxide (CO2) a Congress a priority listing of lands to be ac- year, and an acre of trees can remove 2½ to quired by the National Park Service, the Fish nine tons of CO2. and Wildlife Service, the Bureau of Land Man- agement, and the Forest Service with the $250 Trees are valuable as a source of energy con- million proposed for acquisition through Amer- servation for homes and businesses. In the ica the Beautiful in 1991. This list has been summer, the shade provided by trees can developed through a competitive rating greatly reduce cooling requirements. In winter, system, in which particular importance was deciduous trees allow sunlight through to a placed on the extent to which a potential ac- home, and closely placed, dense conifers near a quisition parcel contains valuable wetlands, is home can save up to 20 percent in fuel costs. in proximity to population centers, has the po- tential to offer increased recreational opportu- Trees can provide forest buffer strips which nities to the public, is important for the protec- reduce the flow of nutrients and pesticides as- tion of endangered species, or possesses other sociated with agricultural production into the characteristics which make its early acquisi- Nation's waterways. Planting timber on cer- tion for public purposes of special importance. tain highly erodible and marginally productive An explanation of the rating system will be croplands can produce a higher return on provided to the Congress with the list of priori- those lands than many other crops. ty acquisitions. Currently, about 3½ million acres of public Reforestation: Planting Trees for America's and private lands are planted in trees and Future.-Recent years have witnessed growing seedlings annually. This is up from the ap- attention to global environmental trends, a proximately ½ million acres of 40 years ago. strong upsurge in the concern of the American Nevertheless, the U.S. experiences a net loss of people about the national and international about 700,000 acres of forest land per year. environment, and an increased willingness on the part of individual Americans to take per- Much of America's 730 million acres of for- sonal responsibility for their environmental ests lies on Federal and State lands or on future. lands owned by large, commercial forest prod- ucts enterprises. The Federal government cur- The 1991 budget contains funds for a major rently undertakes substantial reforestation ac- reforestation initiative which will serve both to tivities on lands under its jurisdiction: last address emergent environmental concerns and year, nearly 200 million trees were planted on to encourage the involvement of communities, National Forest lands; and another 27 million corporations, State and local governments and trees were planted on Department of the Inte- individuals in creating solutions. The budget rior lands, principally those managed by the proposes $175 million for the first year of a Bureau of Land Management. Some of the multi-year initiative with twin objectives: lands enrolled in the Conservation Reserve planting a billion trees a year on private land Program (CRP) since 1986 have been forested. across America; and launching a community trees program, designed to plant another 30 But almost half of America's forest land is million trees in communities across the coun- private land that is not used by large enter- try prises in the forest products industry. This pri- Trees are a remarkably valuable resource. vate, non-industrial forest land, due to low In addition to their obvious value as the source levels of management and investment, tends to of wood products and habitat for all manner of be in poor condition. Thus, reforestation and stand improvement investment on these lands 0-1990-4 QL3 can yield an especially high level of CO2 se- technical assistance to support this massive questration and other benefits. volunteer effort. In addition, the Administra- Most private landowners neither seek nor tion will submit legislation to the Congress to receive technical advice concerning timber establish a private, non-profit foundation to management or reforestation practices; less lend further leadership and help build broad- than a third of those who actually harvest based support for planting trees in communi- timber have a management plan before the ties across the Nation. harvest. The Foundation will be capitalized with a The budget includes $110 million designed one-time appropriation of $35 million in funds primarily to improve the management and en- from the community tree initiative, with courage the reforestation of these lands. Spe- which it will promote public awareness, solicit cifically, the government will provide cost- financial and non-financial support, and, most shared assistance through the Forest Service importantly, mobilize individuals, business, and State forestry agencies to encourage small governments, and community organizations in lot owners to plant trees and undertake other cities and towns throughout America. The goal improved practices on private non-industrial of the plant a tree initiative is to plant 30 lands and marginal agricultural lands. The ini- million trees in various communities every tiative also would provide grants to State for- year estry agencies to allow them to provide needed materials, direct technical assistance, and In total, the tree planting programs support- seedlings to private landowners, municipal ar- ed by the budget can have a substantial impact borists, and community groups. on sequestration of CO2 emissions by the United States. Initial estimates are that the The goal of the program is to achieve the one billion trees a year envisioned in the Presi- planting of trees on over one and one-half mil- dent's reforestation initiatives could absorb 13 lion acres of private land annually, and timber million tons of CO2 per year, and thus seques- stand improvement and other stewardship ac- ter up to 5 percent of annual U.S. CO2 emis- tivities on another 180,000 acres. sions within 20 years. And they will help The Community "Plant a Tree" Initiative.- greatly to improve wildlife habitat and water A second promising target of reforestation as- and air quality, and to increase outdoor recrea- sistance is community trees. These include tion opportunities. street trees, trees in local parks, community forests, and residential trees. Available infor- Enhancing Recreation and Restoring Natural mation indicates that community trees are de- Resources: Legacy 99.-A third component of clining in number and in health. One recent America the Beautiful, beyond land acquisition survey found that in most American cities, and reforestation, is designed to focus Federal only one tree is planted for every four re- funding and expertise on a wide range of moved Moreover, because of their location in threatened natural resource treasures and key population centers, studies indicate that com- recreational areas in need of improvement. munity trees have up to 15 times as much The Department of the Interior is committed value in overall reduction of CO2 as forest to accomplishing these improvements by the trees. end of the decade-its 150th anniversary as a Department-and hence has designated the Thus, a second element of the President's effort "Legacy '99." plan to promote reforestation, provided for in the budget, will be to assist in the creation of The budget includes $205 million, an in- tree planting programs in every community in crease of 40 percent above 1990, for improved America. The President is asking every town resource protection and restoration (including and city, every school and university, every wetlands conservation and endangered species company and indeed every citizen to join to- activities) and enhanced recreational opportu- gether in planting trees for America's future. nities in national parks, wildlife refuges, and other public lands. Included in Legacy '99 are The budget contains $30 million in funding funds for certain resources that are of special needed to provide leadership, coordination and importance: TO THE CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES: DRAFT Today I am pleased to transmit a legislative proposal entitled the "National Tree Trust Act of 1990." This proposal is a key part of my America the Beautiful initiative, and it would enhance the growing partnership between the public and private sectors to plant trees across America. President Theodore Roosevelt began this century by directing the Nation's attention to the protection of valuable public lands -- America's treasure trove of parks, wildlife refuges, forests, and rangelands. As the end of the century approaches, it is appropriate that this final decade be one in which conservation, enhancement, and protection of our irreplaceable national assets rise to the forefront of national concerns. With this as our goal, my FY 1991 Budget proposes a new initiative -- "America the Beautiful." Our initiative reflects my support for appropriate expansion and proper maintenance of the Nation's parks, refuges, forests, and public lands. It is also based on my determination to involve all Americans in strengthening the Nation's natural resources heritage. Finally, this initiative expresses my firm commitment to providing responsible stewardship of the country's heritage for the benefit of generations to come. My America the Beautiful initiative includes three components. First, we propose to expand Federal recreational land acquisition, which involves activities of the Departments of the Interior and Agriculture. Second, the Department of the Interior is undertaking an effort -- "Legacy '99" -- to enhance resource protection and recreation. Third, we DRAFT propose a national tree planting and forest improvement initiative, to be administered by the Department of Agriculture. These components will largely be implemented under existing authorities. The proposal I am transmitting to Congress today authorizes Presidential designation of a private nonprofit Foundation to receive a one-time grant for the purpose of promoting community tree planting and cultivation projects. It also authorizes appropriations to the Secretary of Agriculture for a grant to permit the Foundation to begin its important work. The Foundation will promote public awareness and a spirit of volunteerism, solicit private sector contributions, and oversee the use of these contributions to encourage tree planting and cultivation projects throughout the United States. The Foundation will help forge cooperation between individuals, businesses, governments, and community organizations, and provide financial assistance to grassroots volunteers to plant trees. It will help draw national attention to the need for increased planting of trees in our communities, where, on average, only one tree is now being planted for every four that die or are removed. It is a program that will reach every State, if not each and every community. All of our citizens will be encouraged to participate in this program. Trees are one of our most valuable resources. They contribute to the environmental, economic, and social well-being of this country. They enhance biodiversity, wildlife, air and water quality, and recreational opportunities. Trees improve -2- DRAFT landscape esthetics and property values, reduce soil erosion, and provide many valuable wood products. They also contribute to energy conservation through the shading and cooling of buildings and by serving as windbreaks. Enactment of this proposal will permit us to harness the efforts of individuals and organizations to undertake the nationwide planting and cultivation of invaluable trees. The prompt passage of this proposal by Congress will demonstrate our shared commitment to preserving one of our most valuable natural resources, our precious heritage of trees. Let us ensure that our descendants will be able to share our pride in referring to this land as America the Beautiful. -3- To authorize the President to designate a private nonprofit Foundation as eligible to receive funds for the purpose of promoting community tree planting and cultivation projects. Be it enacted by the Senate and the House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, SEC. 1. SHORT TITLE. This Act may be cited as the "National Tree Trust Act of 1990". SEC. 2. FINDINGS. The Congress finds that -- (1) trees provide beauty and are an important part of America's heritage; (2) trees capture and safely store greenhouse gases, and each additional tree can reduce the possibility of global warming; (3) the shading, wind-blocking, and evaporation provided by trees, especially in urban areas, can significantly reduce energy use; (4) trees planted adjacent to croplands filter run off and prevent erosion that threaten water quality, fish, and wildlife; and (5) community service and service to others is an integral part of the American tradition. SEC. 3. PURPOSES. The intent of this Act is to provide for a grant to a private nonprofit Foundation to be used for the following purposes -- (1) to promote public awareness, education, and a spirit of volunteerism in support of community tree planting and cultivation projects nationwide; (2) to solicit private sector contributions through the mobilization of individuals, businesses, governments and community organizations with the goal of increasing the number of trees planted in communities and urban environments; (3) to accept and administer private gifts and make grants, including matching grants to encourage local participation, for the planting and cultivating of trees; and DRAFT (4) to ensure that our descendants will be able to share their ancestors' pride when referring to their land as America the Beautiful. SEC. 4. AUTHORITY. (a) The President is authorized to designate a private nonprofit organization, which for purposes of this Act shall be referred to as the Foundation, as eligible to receive funds pursuant to section 6(a), upon determining that such organization can, consistent with its charter, carry out the purposes stated in section 3, and that the officers of such organization have the experience and expertise necessary to direct the activities of the organization. (b) Nothing in this Act shall be construed to make the Foundation an agency or instrumentality of the United States Government, or to make officers, employees, or members of the Board of directors of the Foundation officers or employees of the United States. SEC. 5. FUNDING. In fiscal year 1991, the Secretary of Agriculture is authorized to make a grant, from funds authorized to be appropriated under section 8 of this Act, of not to exceed $35,000,000 to the Foundation designated pursuant to section 4. SEC. 6. GRANT. (a) Funds made available pursuant to section 5 shall be granted to the Foundation by the Department of Agriculture -- (1) to enable the Foundation to carry out the purposes specified in section 3; and (2) for the administrative expenses of the Foundation. (b) Notwithstanding any other provision of law, the Foundation may hold grant funds contributed pursuant to subsection (a) of this section in interest-bearing accounts, prior to the disbursement of such funds for purposes specified in section 3, and may retain for such program purposes any interest earned on such deposits. SEC. 7. ELIGIBILITY OF THE FOUNDATION FOR A GRANT. (a) A grant may be made to the Foundation under this Act only if the Foundation agrees to comply with the requirements specified in this Act. (b) The Foundation may use funds provided by this Act only for programs and projects which are consistent with the purposes specified in section 3. -2- (c) Officers and employees of the Foundation DRAFT may not receive any salary or other compensation for services rendered to the Foundation from any source other than the Foundation. (d) The Foundation shall not issue any shares of stock or declare or pay any dividends. (e) No part of the funds of the Foundation shall inure to the benefit of any board member, officer, or employee of the Foundation, except as salary or reasonable compensation for services or expenses. Compensation for board members shall be limited to reimbursement for reasonable costs of travel and expenses. No director, officer, or employee of the Foundation shall participate, directly or indirectly, in the consideration or determination of any question before the Foundation affecting his or her financial interests or the interests of any corporation, partnership, entity, or organization in which he or she is an officer, director, or trustee, or in which he or she has any direct or indirect financial interest. (f) The Foundation shall not engage in lobbying or propaganda for the purpose of influencing legislation and shall not participate or intervene in any political campaign on behalf of any candidate for public office. (g) For the fiscal year in which the Foundation receives the grant awarded under section 6(a), and for the succeeding five fiscal years, the accounts of the Foundation shall be audited annually in accordance with generally accepted auditing standards by independent certified public accountants or independent licensed public accountants certified or licensed by a regulatory authority of a State or other political subdivision of the United States. The report of each such independent audit shall be included in the annual report required by subsection (j) of this section. (h) The financial transactions undertaken pursuant to this Act by the Foundation may be audited by any agency designated by the President for the fiscal year in which the Foundation receives the grant awarded under section 6(a) and for the five succeeding fiscal years. (i) The Foundation shall ensure -- (1) that each recipient of assistance provided through the Foundation under this Act keeps, for five years after the receipt of such assistance, separate accounts with respect to such assistance and such records as may be reasonably necessary to disclose fully the amount and the disposition by such recipient of the proceeds of such assistance, the total cost of the project or undertaking in connection with which such assistance is given or used, the amount and nature -3- DRAFT of that portion of the cost of the project or undertaking supplied by other sources, and such other records as will facilitate an effective audit; and (2) that the Foundation, the agency designated by the President pursuant to subsection (h) of this section, or any of the Foundation's duly authorized representatives shall have access for the purpose of audit and examination to any books, documents, papers, and records of the recipient that are pertinent to assistance provided through the Foundation under this Act. (j) Not later than three months after the conclusion of each fiscal year, the Foundation shall publish an annual report for the preceding fiscal year. The report shall include a comprehensive and detailed report of the Foundation's operation, activities, financial condition, and accomplishments under this Act. The Foundation's obligation to publish annual reports pursuant to this subsection shall terminate after publication of the report incorporating the findings of the final audit required by subsection (g) of this section. SEC. 8. AUTHORIZATION OF APPROPRIATIONS. There is authorized to be appropriated for fiscal year 1991, $35,000,000 for a one-time grant from the Secretary of Agriculture to the Foundation designated pursuant to section 4(a). -4- DRAFT Section-by-Section Analysis "National Tree Trust Act of 1990" Section 1 provides that the Act may be cited as the "National Tree Trust Act of 1990.' Section 2 sets forth five congressional findings. Four of these findings are related to the environmental and social value of trees, including adding beauty, reducing the possibility of global warming, reducing energy use, and preventing erosion. The fifth finding emphasizes community service as an integral part of the American tradition. Section 3 outlines the purposes of the Act. The intent is to provide a grant to a private nonprofit Foundation to be used to (1) promote public awareness and volunteerism for community tree planting and cultivation nationwide, (2) solicit private contributions with the goal of increasing tree planting in communities and urban environments, (3) accept and administer gifts and make grants to encourage local participation in the planting and cultivation of trees, and (4) ensure that our descendants will be able to share the pride of their ancestors when referring to their land as America the Beautiful. Section 4 authorizes the President to designate a private nonprofit organization, referred to as the "Foundation," to carry out the purposes of the Act. The Foundation will not be an agency or instrumentality of the United States. Officers, employees, or members of the board of directors of the Foundation will not be officers or employees of the United States. Section 5 authorizes the Secretary of Agriculture to make a grant of up to $35 million to the Foundation during fiscal year 1991. The grant will be funded from appropriations authorized in section 8 of the Act. Section 6 requires the Foundation to use the grant from the Department of Agriculture to carry out the purposes specified in section 3 and for administrative expenses of the Foundation. Notwithstanding any other provision of law, the Foundation is authorized to hold grant funds in interest-bearing accounts until they are needed. Interest earned on such deposits may be retained by the Foundation and used for the purposes specified in section 3. Section 7 directs that the Foundation must agree to comply with the requirements of the Act before a grant may be made to the Foundation. The Foundation must use funds provided by the Act only for the purposes specified in section 3. Officers and employees may not receive compensation for services rendered to the Foundation from any source other than the Foundation. The Foundation shall not issue shares of stock or declare or pay any dividends. The Foundation is prohibited from lobbying for the DRAFI purpose of influencing legislation and from intervening in any political campaign. Accounts of the Foundation will be audited for the fiscal year in which the grant is received under section 6 and for each of the succeeding five fiscal years. The results of the audit will be included in each of six required annual reports that shall include a comprehensive and detailed statement of the Foundation's operation, activities, and financial condition. The Foundation shall ensure that those who receive assistance from the Foundation under the Act keep such records as may be reasonably necessary to facilitate the annual audits. Section 8 authorizes the appropriation of $35 million for fiscal year 1991 to be used for a one-time grant from the Secretary of Agriculture to the Foundation. -2- C4 FACT SHEET DRAFT President Bush's Proposed National Tree Trust Act Today, President Bush transmitted to Congress the National Tree Trust Act of 1990, a key part of his America the Beautiful initiative. This proposal will be the catalyst to forge new partnerships between individuals, business, governments, and community organizations with the goal of planting trees across America. It authorizes: Presidential designation of a new private nonprofit Foundation to receive Federal funds through a one-time grant for the purpose of promoting community tree planting projects; and the appropriation of funds to the Secretary of Agriculture for such a grant. It is anticipated that the Foundation will: promote public awareness and a spirit of volunteerism; solicit private sector contributions; and oversee the use of these contributions to encourage tree planting projects. The Foundation will help draw national attention to the need for increased planting of trees in our communities, where, on the average, only one tree is now being planted for every four that die or are removed. It is a program that will reach every State, if not each and every community, by working in partnership with existing national and community organizations, businesses, State forestry agencies, and youth groups. The President encourages all citizens to express their personal commitment to their communities and to the environment by participating in this program. The National Tree Trust is a fitting complement to the National Tree Planting and Forest Improvement component of the President's America the Beautiful initiative. The FY 1991 Budget includes the America the Beautiful initiative to address the protection, conservation, and enhancement of America's natural resources. The initiative includes three components involving the Departments of the Interior and Agriculture. These components are (1) expanded Federal recreational land acquisition, which involves both departments; (2) an Interior Department resource protection and recreation enhancement effort, called "Legacy "99"; and (3) a National Tree Planting and Forest Improvement Program, to be administered by Agriculture. DKAFI The National Tree Planting and Forest Improvement Program includes $175 million in fiscal year 1991 to pursue the goal of planting a billion trees a year on private lands. This program includes two basic components to be coordinated by Agriculture, a rural component to address reforestation of private, non-industrial lands and a Community Trees component: Rural Areas. The FY 1991 Budget provides $110 million to Agriculture for cost-sharing and technical assistance with private landowners to plant, improve, and maintain trees on suitable lands. The program will be implemented through existing departmental delivery mechanisms and through State forestry agencies. Community Trees. The 1991 Budget also provides $65 million to provide leadership, coordination, and technical assistance to support tree planting and care in community and urban environments. This program will rely on the U.S. Forest Service's existing technical assistance delivery system which operates through State foresters and other cooperating parties. Both components will be carried out under existing authorities. The funds proposed for the community tree planting program include $35 million for the one-time grant in fiscal year 1991 to the Foundation designated by the President. Enactment of the President's "National Tree Trust Act of 1990" will permit us to harness the efforts of individuals and organizations to undertake the nationwide planting and cultivation of our Nation's precious trees. Thus, the President hopes we can ensure that our descendents will be able to share our pride in referring to this land as America the Beautiful. -2- TAB D DRAFT MISSION STATEMENT Reaching out to rekindle a spirit of volunteerism, rejuvenate community partnerships, involve America's youth and encourage an individual commitment to the environment, the Nation Tree Trust seeks to forge new partnerships with individuals, businesses, governments and community organizations with the goal of planting trees across America. The National Tree Trust is to provide the institutional framework for the President's efforts to encourage private tree planting at the local level. Two of the President's more popular themes, reawakening the spirit of community service and improving the environment, should be melded together in a successful alliance aimed at tree-planting. The muscle of the Trust, however, will rest in its ability to leverage significant private sector contributions. These funds should be allocated at a minimum of cost through, to the extent feasible, existing delivery mechanisms in a manner that further stimulates local giving and local participation. PURPOSE The National Tree Trust shall be established and operated for the following purposes: (1) to promote public awareness and a spirit of volunteerism in support of community tree planting and cultivation projects nationwide; (2) to solicit private sector contributions through the mobilization of individuals, businesses, governments and community organizations with the goal of increasing the number of trees planted in community and urban environments; (3) to accept and administer private gifts and make grants, including matching grants to encourage local participation, for the planting and cultivating of trees; and (4) to ensure that our descendents will be able to share their ancestors' pride when referring to their land as America the Beautiful. TAB E DRAFT ORGANIZATIONAL STRATEGY It is anticipated that the National Tree Trust's principal functions will be, 1) the solicitation of private sector contributions, and 2) the making of grants for the purpose of increasing the number of trees planted in community and urban environments. Separate advisory committees comprised of appropriate resource professionals, operating through the Board's Executive Community, may be used to advise both in the solicitation of funds and in grant-making activities. The methods used in accomplishing tree planting are, however, as important to the President as the number of trees actually planted. The President challenges the National Tree Trust, both through its activities and as a result of its work, to: rekindle a spirit of volunteerism; rejuvenate community partnerships; involve America's youth; and encourage individual commitment to the environment. In order to achieve these results, private sector contributions will provide the capital stock and tree planting should be the tool. In this manner, the National Tree Trust should function mainly as a conduit, ensuring a least cost allocation of resources to support principally community based, grassroots oriented projects that achieve the President's objectives. The allocation of resources (the process of both soliciting funds and grant-making) should be achieved with the least amount of bureaucratic structure and at the lowest cost. Project implementation, the on-the-ground efforts financed by Trust grants, should, however, be carried out efficiently and by organizations worthy of support. Instead of the Trust conducting the necessary review and oversight of project implementation, it is suggested the Trust utilize existing delivery mechanisms operated through established organizations. Global Releaf -- American Forestry Association Though numerous national organizations currently exist with at least a partial involvement in tree planting efforts, (Tree People and the National Arbor Day Foundation for example) the American Forestry Associations (AFA) Global Releaf campaign offers the largest existing network for reaching community based needs and the ability to expand operations as resources increase. DRAFT Through its Global Releaf strategy, AFA has worked to establish effective partnerships with State forestry agencies. Virtually every State forestry has assigned a Global Releaf State Coordinator to the Global Releaf Campaign. These coordinators represent a vital link to local programs and to other forestry specialists that serve communities under the general umbrella of the Federal-state cooperative forestry programs. With supplemental funding, AFA could coordinate an enlarged cooperative effort with central AFA staff and new regional coordinators that would assist state coordinators and local groups to identify potential projects and oversee implementation. In this manner, the Global Releaf campaign could recommend projects for funding, coordinate local cooperation and participation and administer grants awarded by the Trust. O Community Foundations A community foundation is a publicly supported organization that makes grants for charitable purposes. These foundations generally receives financing from many sources and normally limits its grants to organizations within a specific region or local community. There are nationally over 300 community foundations. The National Tree Trust could use existing community foundations by making designated donations, granting money to the community foundation for specific purposes, in this case, most probably planting trees. Appropriate guidelines could be developed to ensure that the objectives of the Trust are fully met. The Trust could seek opportunities to leverage the knowledge, experience, reputation and support inherent to existing community foundations as a means of implementing effective programs at the local level. O Recognized Youth Organizations The Tree Trust should take advantage of existing youth organizations as an effective delivery mechanism. Groups such as the Boy Scouts and Girl Scouts, Boys and Girls Clubs. YMCA, YWCA, Little league, and Special Olympics provide a ready source of expertise and person-power necessary to recommend projects, oversee grant awards and accomplish results. O State Forestry Networks State Forestry agencies have a long and established history of cooperation with Federal agencies, local communities and professional organizations relating to urban and community forestry. State urban and community forestry coordinators act as catalysts in initiating local action. Utilizing the existing -2- DRAFT State Forestry cooperative network encompasses both professional/ technical expertise and the cross section of on-going activities from the Federal to the local level. O Limited Specific Grants The National Tree Trust should also, on a limited basis, reach out beyond existing delivery organizations to fund specific projects identified to or by the Trust. Such grants may be used in conjunction with specific events, as part of educational campaigns, or in any manner to help focus the objectives of the Trust. -3- Private Support Public and Corporate contributions NTT Financial $ Advisory Committee The NATIONAL TREE TRUST NTT Technical $ Advisory $ Committee TDEAS- I Global Releas Existing Regional à state Community Youth State Coordinators Foundation Organizations Forestry $ $ DRAFT Networks $ LOCAL PROGRAMS AND PROJECTS TAB F DRAFT PROPOSED ACTION PLAN ACTION ITEM DATE National Tree Trust Act transmitted March 20 to Congress. White House ceremony to highlight President's interest in the Tree Trust concept. Founding members or designees meet April 2 with WH staff. Incorporate. Prepare and file Articles By April 10 of Incorporation and Bylaws; submit application for tax exempt status. Select additional Board members. By April 11 Work with WH Staff to arrange for By April 13 President to call to congratulate final Board members. Earth Day. WH Ceremony. Hold first April 22-23 Board meeting. Organize office and staff. Develop April 22-June 1 short-term action plan. Begin operations including active June 1 fundraising and issuance of initial grants. TAB G DRAFT CONTACTS White House James P. Pinkerton 456-6407 Deputy Assistant to the President for Policy Planning Office of Policy Development Emily Mead 456-6252 Paul Roellig 456-7173 O Department of Agriculture Patricia M. Kearney 447-7173 Acting Assistant Secretary for Natural Resources and Environment Department of the Interior Thomas Weimer 343-4203 Chief of Staff [quier no termy Conn DR SUBJECT: White House Ceremony for the National Tree Trust OBJECTIVES: 1) Presidential transmittal of the National Tree Trust Act of 1990. 2> Issuance of President's challenge that Earth Day 1990 be the start of a new commitment to the environment through, in part, the planting of trees. Begin planning to plant as many trees as possible on Earth Day and let the effort grow from there. METHODS: 1) Signing ceremony for transmittal (?) 2) Presidential remarks issuing the challenge 3) Tree Planting on South Lawn (?) The President should recognize the on-going efforts of national organizations such as the American Forestry Association's Global Relief campaign (President could hold up the Global Relief Action Guide), and the expertise and technical assistance provided through State forestry agencies. EVENT: The significance of the President's challenge is that it gives citizens something to do now. The President will urge each of us to begin planning now as individuals, families, through existing organizations or through new groups to include a tree planting event as a part of their celebration of Earth Day and Earth Week. Efforts should be aimed at not only how and where to plant a tree, but how to care for it, why we should plant trees, and how trees benefit the environment.. The goal is to plant as many trees across America as possible, as the beginning to a new commitment to the environment As part of the President's challenge, President Bush could present to the Association of State Foresters four (or the appropriate number) gold shovels that they, in turn, would present to the organization or individual that, through their planning efforts, best represent the President's objectives in the tree-planting initiative: rekindle a spirit of volunteerism; rejuvenate community partnerships; involve America's youth and encourage individual commitment to the environment, . SENT BY:OMB/NRD/AG. BRANCH ; 3- 5-90 ; 9:07AM ; 2023954941- OPD:# 3 DRAFT With these gold shovels, the recipients would be asked to come to the White House during Earth Day Week and help President Bush plant a White House Tree. The National Tree Trust could finance the event. NOTE: Rather than using the Association of State Foresters, some other national organization could be used, or the Forest Service or a combination of organizations. -2- (Smith/Blessey) 8 A.M. March 26, 1990 INDY PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: ARBOR DAY EVENT INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA TUESDAY, APRIL 3, 1990 Dan Coats, Mayor Hudnut, Director Strong, distinguished is guests, ladies and gentlemen. It is indeed great to be back home " again in Indiana. And as the banner says, to plant "trees for tomorrow" that will benefit our Nation and its kids. // ( (Not far from here is the law school of a friend of mine. And in that context, let me tell you a story. // A guy came up to me today and said, "Mr. President, the press has been wrong about your foreign and domestic policy." // And I said to him, "That may be true -- but you left out an important fact. // They've also been wrong about Dan Quayle." ( (Let me say how proud I am of the job Dan has done as Vice- President. He's served our Administration well. He's served the Nation well. // Given the choice again, I'd pick him as my Vice-President more quickly than you can say, "Indiana loves basketball. "//)) Today, the Vice-President is back in Washington. // As you can see, he let me play hookie. // Nor, sadly, could Bobby Knight be with us. He's out recruiting what Dan assures me is yet another national champion. // But on this Arbor Day, I am glad to see all of you here in a city which, unlike some, can always see the forest for the trees. 2 // And which intends this year to plant thirty thousand of the trees, that are the sanctuaries of man. Renewing and refreshing. // And that represent the continuity of man. An inheritance passed from one generation to another. // 3 Manyozyan Like any schoolboy, I grew up reading the great Hoosier poet, James Whitcomb Riley. And I recall how once he said, "Life is a cycle larger than any individual." // Well, so it is with trees. They renew and restore the natural magic of mankind. // Think of how trees enhance our atmosphere. Providing oxygen and absorbing carbon dioxide. // And how they enhance our jump environment. Preserving the beauty of trees that is breathtaking. And the bounty of trees that is breathgiving. // "Trees For Tomorrow" will ensure both through a community of pride. Talk about cooperation -- individuals, private groups, your City's Department of Parks and Recreation. And results -- this month alone, you're donating 1,000 trees. // This urban forestry program will help volunteers show new volunteers not only how and where to plant trees. That's the easy part. It will also teach the difficult part -- how to care for trees -- why we need them -- and how they help the environment. // ( (You know, one of my grandkids once told me he'd rather be a doctor than a tree surgeon. His reason? A doctor never falls out of his patients. // Well, the record shows that Indianapolis isn't falling down on the job of protecting the environment. And neither will our Administration. )) // 3 That's why in the budget I submitted in February to the Congress, I asked for $175 million to plant a billion trees year. And why two weeks ago I asked Congress to approve another a nahras antry prople step to protect the environment. // We call it the National Tree Trust Act of 1990. An initiative that, like "Trees for Tomorrow," will foster the partnership between the public and using discarpges private sectors to plant trees across America. // Under our plan, we will designate a private nonprofit Foundation to receive a one-time Federal grant to promote community tree planting and cultivation projects. // It will solicit contributions from private sources. Sound a nationwide call for each American to protect the environment. And most of all, plant the trees that clean our air, prevent erosion, consume carbon dioxide, and purify our water. By acting as one of a Thousand Points of Light, the National Tree Trust Act of 1990 will help create Ten Billion Trees of fiyt Life. // It is a key part of our national tree planting and forest improvement initiative, to be administered by the speech lvdl didn't Agriculture Department. // This two-part program involves both rural areas as well as local urban tree planting programs in cities like Indianapolis. And it, in turn, is central to my "America the Beautiful" program, which I announced ten weeks ago. // "America the Beautiful" will help maintain and expand our parks, wildlife refuges, forests, and public lands. It's like your April "Clean and Green Month" campaign -- but on a more national scale. // It will enrich the urban landscape -- and 4 plant the seeds of environmental stewardship. Not only through planting trees -- but through other steps, as well. // Clean air, for example. Our clean air proposal promises relief from the smog, acid rain, and toxic pollution that harm trees and people. Once again -- and the Vice-President joins me -- I call on the Congress to pass that bill. // I also call on them to help us improve pollution prevention and energy efficiency. // A recent study showed that if city temperatures are cut by five to ten degrees, energy used for cooling can be slashed by fifty percent. Trees can cool those temperatures. // And help realize these words of a Chinese proverb: "One generation plants the tree -- another gets the shade." // I began by talking about two great Indiana exports -- Dan Quayle and basketball. Let me close by referring to a movie close to the Vice-President's heart. // It's called Hoosiers. You've seen it -- probably memorized it. It was filmed here and in three nearby towns. // Yes, it's about basketball. But it also portrays -- unforgettably -- the values of Indiana. // The next time you see Hoosiers, look for kids ? they're everywhere -- like the 2,000 here today. And trees -- they're even more numerous than the movie's kids. // A lot of people don't know it, but Indiana is among our most heavily forested States. Look around you: Trees enhance the beauty of Indiana's cathedral of the outdoors. // So let's help these youngsters plant trees -- nurture them -- in this State and all fifty States. And so knock Johnny 5 Appleseed from the Guinness Book of Records. // Let's plant the "trees for tomorrow" that will bless the children of tomorrow - the generations who will inherit our earth. // Thank you for what you're doing. Hats off to the City of Indianapolis. God bless the land we so richly love -- the United States of America. And now, it is my great pleasure to officially plant the first tree of this magnificent campaign. ? # # # underestimating she importance (Smith/Blessey) 8 A.M. March 26, 1990 INDY PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: ARBOR DAY EVENT INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA TUESDAY, APRIL 3, 1990 Dan Coats, Mayor Hudnut, Director Strong, distinguished " guests, ladies and gentlemen. It is indeed great to be back home- C. 2) again in Indiana. And as the banner says, to plant "trees for tomorrow" that will benefit our Nation and its kids. // ( (Not far from here is the law school of a friend of mine. And in that context, let me tell you a story. // A guy came up to me today and said, "Mr. President, the press has been wrong about your foreign and domestic policy." // And I said to him, "That may be true -- but you left out an important fact. // They've also been wrong about Dan Quayle." ( (Let me say how proud I am of the job Dan has done as Vice- President. He's served our Administration well. He's served the Nation well. // Given the choice again, I'd pick him as my too Vice-President more quickly than you can say, "Indiana loves collams hard you basketball "//)) of Today, the Vice-President is back in Washington. // As you can see, he let me play hookie. 11 Nor, sadly, could Bobby Knight be with us. He's out recruiting what Dan assures me is yet another national champion. // But on this Arbor Day, I am glad to see all of you here in a city which, unlike some, can always see the forest for the trees. 2 trees. that are the sanctuaries of man. humankind Renewing and refreshing. // These And which intends this year to plant thirty thousand of the // And that represent the continuity of man. An inheritance passed from one generation to another. 3 Like mony of you 11 who have read Like any schoolboy I grew up reading the great Hoosier poet, James Whitcomb Riley. And I recall how once he said, "Life is a cycle larger than any individual." // Well, so it is with trees. They renew and restore the natural magic of mankind. // Think of how trees enhance our atmosphere. Providing oxygen and absorbing carbon dioxide. // And how they enhance our jump expand on environment environment. Preserving the beauty of trees that is breathtaking And the bounty of trees that is breathgiving. // "Trees For Tomorrow" will ensure both through a community of pride. Talk about cooperation -- individuals, private groups, your City's Department of Parks and Recreation. And results -- this month alone, you're donating 1,000 trees. // This urban forestry program will help volunteers show new volunteers not only how and where to plant trees. That's the easy part. It will also teach the difficult part -- how to care for trees -- 1.7 , why we need them -- and how they help the environment. // ( (You know, one of my grandkids once told me he'd rather be a doctor than a tree surgeon. His reason? A doctor never falls out of his patients. // Well, the record shows that Indianapolis isn't falling down on the job of protecting the environment. And neither will our Administration. )) // 3 That's why in the budget I submitted in February to the Congress, I asked for $175 million to plant a billion trees a people year. And why two weeks ago I asked Congress to approve another step to protect the environment. // We call it the National Tree Trust Act of 1990. An initiative that, like "Trees for Tomorrow," will foster the partnership between the public and antion private sectors to plant trees across America. // Under our plan, we will designate a private nonprofit Foundation to receive a one-time Federal grant to promote community tree planting and cultivation projects. // It will solicit contributions from private sources. Sound a nationwide call for each American to protect the environment. And most of all, plant the trees that clean our air, prevent erosion, consume carbon dioxide, and purify our water. By acting as one of a Thousand Points of Light, the National Tree Trust Act of 1990 will help create Ten Billion Trees of Life. // It is a key part of our national tree planting and forest improvement initiative, to be administered by the speech Agriculture Department. // This two-part program involves both rural areas as well as local wban tree planting programs in cities like Indianapolis. And it, in turn, is central to my "America the Beautiful" program, which I announced ten weeks ago. // "America the Beautiful" will help maintain and expand our parks, wildlife refuges, forests, and public lands. It's like your April "Clean and Green Month" campaign -- but on a more national scale. // It will enrich the urban landscape -- and 4 plant the seeds of environmental stewardship. Not only through planting trees -- but through other steps, as well. // Clean air, for example. Our clean air proposal promises relief from the smog, acid rain, and toxic pollution that harm trees and people. Once again -- and the Vice-President joins me -- I call on the Congress to pass that bill. 11 I also call on them to help us improve pollution prevention and energy efficiency. // A recent study showed that if city temperatures are cut by five to ten degrees, energy used for cooling can be slashed by fifty percent. Trees can cool those temperatures. // And help realize these words of a Chinese proverb: "One generation plants the tree -- another gets the shade." // I began by talking about two great Indiana exports -- Dan Quayle and basketball. Let me close by referring to a movie close to the Vice-President's heart. // It's called Hoosiers. You've seen it -- probably memorized it. It was filmed here and in three nearby towns. // Yes, it's about basketball. But it also portrays -- unforgettably -- the values of Indiana. // The next time you see Hoosiers, look for kids they're everywhere -- like the 2,000 here today. And trees -- they're even more numerous than the movie's kids. // A lot of people don't know it, but Indiana is among our most heavily forested States. Look around you: Trees enhance the beauty of Indiana's cathedral of the outdoors. // So let's help these youngsters plant trees -- nurture them -- in this State and all fifty States. And so knock Johnny 5 Appleseed from the Guinness Book of Records. // Let's plant the "trees for tomorrow" that will bless the children of tomorrow - the generations who will inherit our earth. // Thank you for what you're doing. Hats off to the City of Indianapolis. God bless the land we so richly love -- the United States of America. And now, it is my great pleasure to officially plant the first tree of this magnificent campaign. ? # # # Let me just address a word to the press corps who have watched me plant trees all over the country. Many of you have scoffed at these tree plantings. There goes Bush again shovelling some more dirt. Well, it's bigger than that. It's more important. And it's not funny, silly or frivolous. We're talking about the ?environment. And planting trees is something everyone can do to keep our air clean. Communities and families can work together to . Let me give you some fiqures to think about: A recent study has shown that if city temperatures are reduced by five to ten degrees, energy used for cooling can be reduced by fifty percent. That's a lot of energy saved by cooling things off (adding some shade). So it's really not so funny after all. It's serious and it's ?productive, and I commend those of you who have reported on the importance of trees and I encourage the rest of you to do the same. nurture trees It's like buying p dog. Taking it home is easy. It's the coring that's important and st times difficult. But w/ X lot of love they dog will stick pround & love you back. Cincinnati Staff Office (513)241-3591 -/PX. Is Ronno Romney doughter or wife ? Fred Nation (317) 232-4578 Gov. Boyhes Off. Ryan White - contracted ANDs had hard time going to school T.V. morie done about him is dying 14 years old Dr. Mortin Cleimon Ratey Children's Hosptal New how to stop garbage importation into Indiana Waster management JOINT Center 1) 636-3509 for Political Jane Eichart studies 2) Any info. on Ctr. 626-3577 626-3500 3) speech HHS Sec. Sullivar Just A little 4) info. a on Smth Corps in this BUDGET. HIST. Black Colleges Gor will Anti - dug 17 Stud Body Taft HS THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON fump master ter Scout % thousand Baba Bush honors VP respond to black elicted officuals Collin Powell Lous Sullivan Dong Wildee - has ed nompartisan non pront 20th THE WHITE HOUSE Anniu. recond WASHINGTON ve Day botch Wetne on air, yuust land, or haldh 69272 4510 AF Nava Arm post walch Breap wishington- based C-Span normally Covers it Corporations have tables occedural THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Ashilman from Williams pn Eddie Pry. kears Davide Nati Christina Staffed Davis/Martin Title: jcps March 29, 1990 Draft: Five PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS: JOINT CTR. POLICY STUDIES, HILTON House wed quest 7:30 p.m., Wednesday, April 4, 1990 6:45 DIAMES ((Eddie Williams, David Kearns and Robert Washington, thank you. It is also good to be out on the town with our good Patty Presack friends, Elsie and И husband] Hillman. And I would especially like to recognize two of the elected officials among us tonight: David Dinkins -- Your Honor; and Doug Wilder -- Governor. ))\\\ It's remarkable to think that in 1968, less than two years before the Joint Center was founded, there were only 200 elected Cenuae State black public officials in all of America. Twenty years later, 829 there are more than 6,000 -- an amazing record. But you know what I find most heartening of all? It's the way in which black leadership in America has become an ordinary and accepted feature of our national life. And this new leadership has a tremendous resource in the Joint Center for NOI Policy Studies. Voltaire said that no problem can stand the assault of sustained thinking. If that is true, then no problem we face today is a match for the Joint Center, truly one of the leading academies of independent thought in Washington today. We can see for ourselves, tonight, that Washington is still a city that thrives on ideas. And as Americans from different professions and political parties, we are together on this wonderful evening to celebrate our shared ideals. We may not muse 2 agree on everything, but we agree on a few great things -- liberty, equality, opportunity and justice for all. On this day, the anniversary of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. s, martyrdom, the world looks to Montgomery, Alabama -- to the granite wall of the new civil rights memorial. And through a veil of flowing water we read these words from the Bible: " let judgment run down as waters, and righteousness as a mighty stream. Amosiz4 Like a mighty river, justice can cut a channel through the hardest of stone. And, like a mighty river seeking the sea, justice can be impeded. But its quest is unstoppable -- in the end, justice cannot be denied. Last month, a distinguished group of fifteen black publishers joined me for lunch in the White House. We discussed everything from the importance of black history in American education, to South Africa, to our struggle to rid this nation of drugs and crime. Together, we walked outside, one of those beautiful Washington days we all live for. And, together we strolled around to the Residence, up to the Lincoln Bedroom, with its Ushars Office Gatey imposing high ceiling, its tall windows, lace curtains and Victorian furnishings. But you know what it is about that room that impresses Barbara and me, and impressed Vaclav Havel when he joined us there? It's not that Lincoln slept there. In fact, he didn't. It is impressive because he worked there. Because he made some of his greatest decisions there. It was his office and 3 Proclamation. Cabinet Room. It was where he signed the Emancipation 410ts In a display case, along the wall, is a copy of the Gettysburg Address, written in Lincoln's dignified hand. Above it is a great painting titled "Watch Meeting, Waiting for the Hour.' It's a very poignant scene, depicting slaves and their friends gathered around an elderly man, a man who had lived in America all his life, and had never known a minute of freedom. But Lincoln had proclaimed January 1, 1863, as the first day of freedom. And so all their eyes are fixed on a watch -- waiting for the stroke of midnight, waiting to be free. It is said that Lincoln's hand shook as he dipped his quill into the ink well before he signed the Emancipation Proclamation. Perhaps he felt the weight of history. Perhaps he was just weary. But in any event, he waited a moment to steady his hand, so that no one would think he wavered on his most important decision. And then Abraham Lincoln signed the proclamation with a firm hand. In a stroke, millions were freed. Together, we felt the greatness of the events that had taken place in that small room, and the profound consequences of a simple stroke of the pen. In moments like these, history returns as a revelation. I know that for Barbara and me, it was certainly a very special moment, one that leads to me to reflect on the special responsibilities of the Presidency that haven't changed since that freedom midnight. Every president is 4 challenged to be a part of the legacy of Lincoln, the continuum of freedom. So when Franklin and Eleanor Roosevelt asked Marion Anderson Ave to sing ( (the Battle Hymn of the Republic at the White House) ) they were living up to the legacy of Lincoln. asegnower When Ike Eisenhower acted decisively to protect a school girl in Little Rock, he was living up to the legacy of Lincoln. When Lyndon Johnson signed the Civil Rights Act into law, he was living up to the legacy of Lincoln. I believe that the day will come -- and it is not far off - - when the legacy of Lincoln will finally be fulfilled -- when a black man or woman will sit in the Oval Office. And when that day comes, the most remarkable thing about it will be how easily and how naturally it occurs. He or she will be another President, another traveler in the continuum of freedom, representing all the people of America, representing all that is best about America. You know, I meet a lot of school kids, many of them black, inner-city kids; and I wonder as I look at the faces of brave ten-year-olds swearing to fight drugs: Is one of them my successor? Is this the child who will fulfill the legacy? But I know we aren't quite there yet. I know that prejudice and racial tensions still exist in America. So I will support, and intend to sign into law, a measure to collect as much information as we can on crimes motivated by religious, racial or ethnic animosity -- the Hate Crimes Bill. And that is why I 5 will only appoint energetic defenders of our civil rights to the Civil Rights Commission. In my many meetings, black Americans have challenged me to live up to the highest ideals of the civil rights movement. Now let me challenge you to work with my Administration, from this day forward, to build a better America. There are new missions for the civil rights movement in the 1990s. From now on, the protection of civil rights must also mean the removal of all barriers to opportunity, for there are forms of poverty that cannot be measured or solved by dollars alone. First and foremost -- there is the poverty of the spirit. Government cannot teach young men and women to have faith in themselves if their mothers and fathers have lost all faith. Government cannot teach that achievement is to be found in quiet moments and subtle rewards, instead of the murderous materialism of easy drug money. But, as leaders, as parents, as communities, we can instill values. We can cultivate character. Your own publications debunk the myth of black indifference and dependency. Black Americans have inherited a strong tradition of philanthropy and self help, from the underground railroad to the civil rights struggle of our own times. So what we need now is a new partnership, one that draws inspiration from achievements both at home and abroad, from the civil rights and Solidarity movements, and from the new hope dawning in South Africa today. For after all, from the country 6 roads of Selma twenty years ago to the cobbled streets of Warsaw and Budapest today, a common refrain echoes through the history of our times: "We shall overcome." Now the winds of change have come to South Africa, where Nelson Mandela is a free man. Where Mister Mandela and President DeKlerk are gradually moving toward negotiation, and we hope, reconciliation. ( (Insert on Africa to come)) Has the world known more improbable heroes than these sons of South Africa, white and black? Or Rosa Parks and Lech Walesa? But heroes they are. Let us honor them by working together, in solidarity. But opportunity alone is not enough, for there is yet another form of poverty caused by fear. When people, going about the ordinary business of their lives -- waiting for a bus, walking to a corner grocery store -- must fear for their lives - -then fear has stolen our most precious possession -- freedom. In January, in Kansas City, I saw people who had suffered from crack and crackling bursts of gunfire not heard there since the days of the Old West. In Alexandria, just across the Potomac, I saw another neighborhood where a crack-crazed addict had slain a policeman. And here in the District, I held a so- called border baby suffering the agony of withdrawal. But everywhere I went, I also found hope. I found people who have had had enough of fear, had enough of crime, had enough of dope. Just as the people of East Berlin stood up for freedom, so the people of this poor neighborhood are rallying together, these 7 using people power to fight for another kind of freedom -- freedom from crime and drugs -- freedom from fear. We must march with them in a solidarity, side by side, block by block, city by city. Then there is yet another kind of poverty, a growing poverty of knowledge and skills. Many young men and women in this country -- white, as well as black -- are simply not learning -- not learning -- the basic skills they need to hold down a job or to raise a family. That is a national disgrace. We are used to thinking of unemployment as a case of too many people, too few jobs -- a game of musical chairs that leaves minorities standing when the music stops. But in the years to come, our problem will be just the opposite: more than enough jobs -- and too few qualified people to fill them. Think about what that means. For every child growing up today -- black or white -- there will be a job waiting. 11 The question is whether that child will have the education and the skills to seize that opportunity. The new service and manufacturing industries will require higher skills, more training and, at the very least, literacy. I am delighted Congress passed our youth training wage last year. But we need to do more. After all, equal opportunity begins with equal education. So we must again work in a solidarity to better our schools. You know my proposals. First, I believe parents deserve choice. 8 They deserve the power to choose their children's child-care, whether it comes from a grandparent or a church-affiliated center. Parents also deserve one thing more -- the power to choose their children's school. And where disadvantaged pre-schoolers are concerned, I am asking Congress to boost Head Start by half-a-billion dollars. ( (I could go on. But I am reminded of the preacher who asked his congregation what he should speak about. Someone shouted from the back pew: "How about five minutes?") 1111 So let me say in conclusion, straight from the heart: This is no time for politics. This is the time for solidarity. Martin Luther King spoke of an arc of justice, a continuum of freedom. It is our legacy, our freedom legacy, that makes the sons and daughters of this American nation like no other. I spoke earlier of the Biblical proverb that compared righteousness to a mighty stream. This same vision can be found in a poem by Langston Hughes, who compared the odyssey of black men and women to the crossing of many rivers. And with each crossing, their souls have grown deep -- deep, like the rivers. This odyssey shaped the soul of a people, and because of black leadership, it is also shaping the soul of our nation. Thank you, God bless you, and God bless America. # # # B. -ACM T-Pack Educ