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President - Politics (1)
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President - Politics (1)
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This file contains material relating to the 1976 campaign.
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Vernon C. Loen and Charles Leppert Files
Vernon Loen's and Charles Leppert's General Subject Files
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Presidential campaign, 1976
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The original documents are located in Box 20, folder "President - Politics (1)" of the Loen and Leppert Files at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library. Copyright Notice The copyright law of the United States (Title 17, United States Code) governs the making of photocopies or other reproductions of copyrighted material. Gerald Ford donated to the United States of America his copyrights in all of his unpublished writings in National Archives collections. Works prepared by U.S. Government employees as part of their official duties are in the public domain. The copyrights to materials written by other individuals or organizations are presumed to remain with them. If you think any of the information displayed in the PDF is subject to a valid copyright claim, please contact the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library. Some items in this folder were not digitized because it contains copyrighted materials. Please contact the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library for access to these materials. N124 Digitized from Box 20 of the Loen and Leppert Files at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library R FORD-REPUBLICANS LEADBY CARL P. LEUBSDORF WASHINGTON (AP) -- MEETING AT PRESIDENT FORD'S REQUEST, A GROUP OF SEVEN TOP REPUBLICANS AGREED TODAY THAT A FORMAL ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE CREATED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS TO MAP FORD'S BID FOR THE 1976 GOP NOMINATION. THE PURPOSE OF THE MEETING WAS NOT WHETHER HE IS GOING TO BUT HOW HE IS GOING TO RUN,'' DEAN BURCH, A FORMER REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CHAIRMAN AND WHITE HOUSE POLITICAL ADVISER, TOLD REPORTERS IN THE LOBBY OF A DOWNTOWN OFFICE BUILDING AFTER THE ONE HOUR, 45-MINUTE SESSION IN HIS LAW OFFICE. BURCH SAID FORD ASKED HIM LAST FRIDAY TO GET THE GROUP TOGETHER TO DISCUSS WAYS TO PLAN THE CAMPAIGN. FORD SAID AT A NEWS CONFERENCE TUESDAY NIGHT THAT THE GROUP HEADED BY BURCH 'INDICATED THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO GET STARTED IN A VERY INFORMAL WAY TO KICK OFF A CAMPAIGN AT A PROPER TIME.'' WHEN BURCH WAS ASKED AT WHOSE INITIATIVE WEDNESDAY'S MEETING OCCURRED, HE REPLIED THAT IT WAS DECIDED AT HIS MEETING FRIDAY WITH THE PRESIDENT. ''I DON'T DROP IN ON HIM WITHOUT BEING ASKED,' BURCH ADDED. BURCH SAID HE WOULD MEET WITH FORD WITHIN A FEW DAYS TO PASS ON THE RECOMMENDATION FOR AN ORGANIZATION AND FOR THE HIRING OF A LAWYER TO ADVICE THE FORD CAMPAIGN ON THE INCREASINGLY COMPLEX PRIMARY AND FUND RAISING LAWS. BURCH SAID HE HAD NO DOUBT THAT FORD WOULD RUN. BURCH, A CONSERVATIVE, ALSO SAID HE CONSIDERS FORD THE ONLY LOGICAL NOMINEE FOR THE REPUBLICAN PARTY'' AND DOWNGRADED THE DANGER THAT DISSIDENT PARTY CONSERVATIVES WOULD DESERT THE PRESIDENT, POSSIBLY TO BACK FORMER GOV. RONALD REAGAN OF CALIFORNIA. ASKED ABOUT HIS CONSERVATIVE FRIENDS, BURCH SAID ''PRESIDENT FORD STANDS VERY WELL WITH THOSE PEOPLE'' AND SAID IT IS HIS OPINION 'HE WILL NOT BE DENIED THE GOP NOMINATION. HE SAID THOSE AT THE MEETING WERE ASKED TO BRING BACK NAMES OF PEOPLE WHO MIGHT PLAY A ROLE IN THE PRESIDENT'S CAMPAIGN AND ADDED THAT THE INITIAL PLANNING GROUP WILL BE EXPANDED. ANOTHER EARLY PROJECT IS TO MAKE A RUNDOWN OF THE NOMINATION GERALD FORD LIBRARY PROCEDURES IN EACH STATE, INCLUDING PRIMARIES, BURCH SAID. BURCH WAS DESIGNATED TO SPEAK FOR THE GROUP, WHOSE OTHER MEMBERS STOOD NEARBY WHILE HE BRIEFED THE PRESS. OTHERS PRESENT INCLUDED FORMER WHITE HOUSE AIDES MELVIN R. LAIRD AND BRYCE N. HARLOW; FORMER GOV. WILLIAM W. SCRANTON OF PENNSYLVANIA; FORMER GOP NATIONAL COMMITTEEMAN RICHARD L. HERMAN OF NEBRASKA; NEW YORK ATTORNEY ROBERT R. DOUGLASS, A LONGTIME CLOSE ASSOCIATE OF VICE PRESIDENT NELSON A. ROCKEFELLER; AND LEON PARMA, A SAN DIEGO BANKER WHO IS A CLOSE FRIEND OF THE PRESIDENT. BURCH WAS ASKED WHETHER THE PRESENCE OF DOUGLASS MEANT THE GROUP WAS LAYING PLANS TO ELECT A FORD-ROCKEFELLER TICKET. BURCH REPLIED THAT THE PURPOSE WAS TO DISCUSS ELECTING FORD AND WHOMEVER FORD SELECTS AS HIS 1976 RUNNING MATE. 05-07-75 16:50EDT January 5, 1976 MEMORANDUM FOR: HOWARD "BO" CALLOWAY THRU: JACK MARSH FROM: CHARLES LEPPERT, JR. SUBJECT: Former Rep. John N. "Happy" Camp Former Rep. John N. "Happy" Camp called and expressed his interest in serving as the treasurer of the President Ford Election Committee in Oklahoma. "Happy" had some interesting comments on the political situation in Oklahoma. I would recommend that you call him in Enid, Oklahoma, if possible. CCI Max Friedersdorf Vern Loen FORD LIBRARY February 13, 1976 MEMORANDUM FOR: ROGERS C. B. MORTON THROUGH: MAX FRIEDERSDORF VERN LOEN VL FROM: TOM LOEFFLER SUBJECT: Reagan Activities with Members of Congress Presently a member of the Reagan campaign staff is contacting Members of Congress in an effort to set up various "regional meetings" with Members. Their plan seems to be to solicit one Member who would organize and direct the respective regional meeting. It is anticipated that Reagan would personally be present to meet with these various regional groups in an effort to brief the Members on his proposed programs and policies. The Reagan campaign, of course, would welcome congressional endorsements. March 1, 1976 MEMORANDUM FOR: ROGERS C. B. MORTON THROUGH: MAX FRIEDERSDORF VERN LOEN FROM: TOM LOEFFLER T.C. SUBJECT: Rep. Elford Cederberg (R. -Michigan) Congressman Cederberg has indicated his strong willingness to participate to whatever extent necessary in assisting the President in his primary efforts and in his election in November. Specifically Al stated that he would be more than happy to go to Florida and to Illinois in behalf of the President. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON April 5, 1976 MEMORANDUM FOR: MAX FRIEDERSDORF THROUGH: CHARLES LEPPERT, JR. CA FROM: TOM LOEFFLER<. SUBJECT: Telephone Conversation with Rep. Andy Hinshaw (R. -Calif.) On Friday, April 2, I returned a telephone call in your behalf to Congressman Hinshaw. The Congressman stated that he has certain news articles containing information on Governor Reagan. Andy would like for you to stop by his office and visit with him further on this matter. I attempted to act in your behalf, but the Congressman asked that you meet with him at your convenience. April 6, 1976 MEMORANDUM FOR: MAX FRIEDERSDORF THROUGH: CHARLES LEPPERT, JR. FROM: TOM LOEFFLER T.L. SUBJECT: Conversation with Congressman Larry Winn (R. -Kansas) Congressman Winn is very concerned about the President's political status within the Republican Party in the State of Kansas. According to Larry, county conventions, district conventions and the Kansas State Republican Convention are held on three consecutive weekends. Winn's deep concern stems from the outcome of several county conventions last weekend. Specifically, in Johnson County, Kansas, 125 out of 127 delegates selected to the district convention are Reagan delegates. In Sedgewick County, Kansas, Reagan got all but two delegates. Again, Winn's attitude was one of alarm over such strong Reagan showing. However, while he expressed these concerns, he also indicated that in Wyandotte County, Kansas, only 13 out of 34 are Reagan delegates. to APR 7 1976 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON April 7, 1976 MEMORANDUM FOR: BILL NICHOLSON FROM: MAX FRIEDERSDORF m.6. SUBJECT: Indiana Primary It would be very beneficial for the President to host a breakfast or luncheon for the Indiana University NCAA basketball champions prior to the May 4 primary in Indiana. CC: Jack Marsh Rog Morton Dick Cheney Charlie Leppert / FORD LIBRARY is 078830 April 15, 1976 MEMORANDUM FOR: MAX FRIEDERSDORF THROUGH: CHARLES LEPPERT, JR. FROM: TOM LOEFFLER SUBJECT: Congressman John Paul Hammerschmidt (R. -Ark.) In a conversation with Congressman Hammerschmidt, he indicated his willingness to publicly endorse the President in his bid for election. He stated that he is more than willing to do whatever would be beneficial to the President both in Arkansas and throughout the country. April 22, 1976 MEMORANDUM FOR: MAX FRIEDERSDORF THROUGH: CHARLES LEPPERT, JR. eag. FROM: TOM LOEFFLER SUBJECT: Rep. Kika de la Garza (D. -Texas) Kika has asked that the attached "Letter to the Editor" be brought to the President's attention. While Lendy McDonald will be Kika's Republican opponent in the general election, the Congressman particularly wanted the President to know that McDonald is supporting Ronald Reagan as manifested by the newspaper clipping. Attach. VALLEY MORNING STAR RIGHT TO WORK To the Editor: An issue of great local interest A4-Saturday, April 3, 1976 seems to be the right to work AMERICA'S TITLE NEW APERS laws as delegated to the states EVER STRIVING FOR THE RIO GRANDE by 14 (b) of the Taft-Hartley Act. VALLEY TO BE AN EVEN: BETTER My husband, Lendy McDonald, who is presently the Republican PLACE IN WHICH TO LIVE. Candidate for Congress from Published every morning by FREE- this 15th district, has received a ---- .. May 4, 1976 MEMORANDUM FOR: MAX FRIEDERSDORF THROUGH: CHARLES LEPPERT, JR. CLp FROM: TOM LOEFFLER T.C. SUBJECT: Rep. Ben Gilman (R.-N.Y.) In a recent conversation the Congressman suggested that there be formed an "ethnic" committee within the PFC. Ben feels this is important to address the Jewish, as well as other minority issues. He stated that it is most important that this part of the campaign be activated immediately and not be left until the last moment. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Date: 5/5/76 TO: KENDALL LOEFFLER JENCKES ROWLAND WOLTHULS. FROM: MAX L. FRIEDERSDORF For your information X Please handle Please see me Comments, please FORD Other GERALD 18989 Volume V, Number 16 May 3, 1976 The American Kevin Phillips, Editor-Publisher Political Published by the American Political Research Corporation 4720 Montgomery Avenue Bethesda, Maryland 20014 Telephone (301) 654-4990 Report THE FORD ADMINISTRATION Ronald Reagan's landslide Texas victory, with its early May Sun Belt primary and convention-state domino effect, jeopardizes Gerald Ford's prospects for a first-ballot nomination at the GOP convention. If Ford cannot win Cali- fornia on June 8, his first-ballot majority prospects are slim, per campaign chief Rogers Morton's own analysis. Prior to the Texas debacle, Morton's 1200-delegate victory projection excluded California delegates and "assumed a fairly even split in Texas, a strong Ford win in the Oregon, Nevada and Idaho primaries, a majority in the Western convention states and in the primary in Ford's home state of Michigan, and virtually all of the (still formally uncommitted) 154-vote New York dele- gation" (Los Angeles Times, 4/22). As of now, scratch 40-50 expected Texas delegates, the Nevada and Idaho wins (see p. 2) and the Western convention states majorities. Thus, Morton's own tabulation should be dropped to 1080- 1110 delegates. If Ford continues to lose momentum through California, it's hard to see him coming into Kansas City with more than 45-47% of the delegates even including Nelson Rockefeller's New Yorkers. Note also: Ford's campaign has spent almost 75% of the $10.9 million primaries' limit. To focus maximum resources on California, they'11 have to shortchange smaller-state conventions and primaries, while RR -- though also pressed for cash -- will get more local help from grassroots activists and zealots. Meanwhile, RR now looks able to come into the convention with 900-950 delegates if he can maintain May's impetus and then win California. Fallout from the Texas landslide may add 100-150 delegates (including 40 extra Texans) to previous estimates of RR strength. Still, unless Ford's prestige and image of electability collapses after a bad June, it's extremely hard to see RR pull- ing together the needed 50% plus of convention delegates. At this point, only a few rightwing publications are buying RR delegate victory scenarios, although Reagan's forces do have a good track record in their state convention claims they've often achieved improbable predictions. Both sides agree May-June momentum will be crucial. Bob Teeter, chief Ford pollster, says that White House polls in N. H., Fla., Ill. and Wisconsin showed as many as 25% of GOP primary voters deciding in the last week and as many as 9% in the last 24 hours. Superimposing Teeter's data on recent Cali- fornia polls, the candidate who has late May momentum should win California's huge, winner-take-all chunk of 167 delegates. Thus, look for Ford and RR to both pay considerable attention to the major primaries leading up to California: the big Dixie bloc (Tennessee, Ken- tucky and Arkansas -- May 25) and the Western Regional (Idaho, Nevada, Oregon -- May 25). Ford will be spread out, but RR will concentrate on two -- eight days are slated for Tennessee (where local media also reach strongly into Ar- kansas and Kentucky) and almost as many for the West. Here are the May 11- June 8 primary prospects: © 1976. By the American Political Research Corporation. Published biweekly at $94 a year, $110 overseas (airmail). Reproduction or quotation without specific permission is prohibited by law. May 11: Ford is slightly ahead in Nebraska, where the last "Nebraska THIRD PARTY PROSPECTS Poll" (Omaha World-Herald, 2/29) gave him a 52-30% lead over RR. But RR has been catching up, and should make it close. West Virginia, not very signifi- Most media continue to underestimate the problems that these are cant, will back Ford. going to cause. One of the few exceptions a recent analysis in the Columbus May 18: Baltimore Sun polls published 4/20 show that Ford's February (Ohio) Dispatch suggesting that the proliferation of minor candidates in Ohio lead of 42-35% had widened to 53-23% as of April 1. The Sun estimates that would influence the GOP-Democrat race. That will also be true elsewhere. Ford leads in all 8 districts. Michigan's primary is a potential big one if Here's why. Wallace voters cross over as in Texas, RR might have a chance to edge Ford. 1. Rightwing efforts: Leaders in the independent ballot-line oper- But RR won't lose any momentum by getting only 40-45%, with delegates alloca- ation "Freedom of Choice" tell us they expect rightwing ballot positions in ted proportionately. 42-44 states for 1976. About a dozen states are causing problems, but in the May 25: This six-pack of primaries is probably the big one. First, end, they expect to miss in only a half-dozen. Most big states will be cover- the 3 Dixie contests Arkansas should go for Ford; Kentucky (37 delegates) ed. Ohio should be an exception, because the 38,000 signatures collected fell and Tennessee (43) will be close. As of April 19, the weekly Tennessee Journal several hundred short, and judicial relief is unlikely. In N. Y., Freedom of put Ford ahead (Ford leading the traditionally Republican east while RR led in Choice leaders feel that the local Conservative Party will refuse to endorse the West). Wallace crossovers will boost Reagan, especially in light of Texas. Ford (who has one of its leaders in a U. S. Postal Rate Commission job) unless Senator Howard Baker plans two weeks of campaigning for Ford (with his vice- Reagan is also on the ticket. Backstage, debate continues to rage about candi- presidential prospects at stake). In Kentucky, the Louisville Courier-Journal dates and prospects. Moneyman Richard Viguerie thinks in terms of a new party reports (4/25) that "Reagan is much better organized in Kentucky than Presi- shooting for 5% nationally in order to get post-November federal matching dent Ford" of the 37 delegates finally picked, RR has "roughly 26, Ford 8 funds. Others see 3-4% as the national maximum. We doubt rumors that George and 3 were uncertain" (delegates are bound to the primary results for just one Wallace's third-party interest is rekindling. The Birmingham News (4/18) car- ballot) Kentucky GOP leaders generally see RR slightly ahead. As for Idaho, ried a detailed article on how Wallace's staff is getting ready to return to Nevada and Oregon, RR is a runaway favorite in Nevada, leading as of 4/20 by private business. Other possible rightwing splinter nominees include N.H. GOP 3:1 in the (Reno) Nevada State Journal presidential primary straw vote. In Gov. Mel Thomson and N.C. GOP Senator Jesse Helms (whose interest in being a Idaho, the (Boise) Idaho Statesman reports (April 18) that Ford led RR there 1976 splinter candidate comes and goes). If Reagan loses the GOP nomination by 52.4% to 47.6%, but an accompanying article nevertheless said that "state after a strong, bitter bid, rightwing splinters could draw 2-5% in many politicians see Ronald Reagan a slight favorite over President Ford." RR plans states, mostly at Ford's expense. an Idaho visit. Meanwhile, Ford leads in Oregon by 56-33% per the most recent 2. Eugene McCarthy: He's really running. Campaign officials tell Bardsley-Haslacher poll (Portland Oregonian, 4/11). Back in December, Ford us he's now on the November ballot in Ohio, N. J. and Kentucky, and is about led by only 43-42%. Oregon Ford Chairman Craig Berkman says that Ford must to make it in Michigan. Other key states like California, Pennsylvania, New win Oregon to block RR, seen leading in Nevada and Idaho, from claiming full York, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Massachusetts and Illinois will pose no problem. victory in the regional primary (Eugene Register-Guard, 4/4). If Ford wins 4 Remember McCarthy is not organizing a party, he's running as an Independent, of these 6, score it for him. If RR wins 4 -- say Idaho, Nevada, Kentucky and which is easier. McCarthy planners hope to run against Carter rather than Tennessee -- he'll have the post-May 25 momentum. June 1: Three little ones. Ford should win Rhode Island and South McCarthy's fellow Minnesotan, HHH. Their campaign will focus on major Northern electoral vote states. Within them, they'll target what could more or less be Dakota, while RR wins Montana. Minimal momentum implications. described as the Udall vote (which is somewhat akin to McCarthy's 1968 Demo- June 8: New Jersey is safe for Ford via an unopposed local party cratic primary electorate). This could become a substantial Northern threat slate. In Ohio, RR has slates running in two-thirds of districts, could score to Carter time will tell. with some, but Ohio is not critical -- California is. To cope with the possi- 3. The Libertarians: Presidential nominee Roger MacBride hopes to bility of surging California RR momentum after a Texas sweep, Ford strategists be on the ballot in about 30 states, with emphasis on the West. An ex-Repub- have planned emergency fundraising and intensified local barnstorming. As of lican who talks about the GOP being in its death throes, he should undercut 4/22, they had only $200,000 on hand for California, just 10% of the cost of Ford more than the Democrat. MacBride may draw 1-3% in some states. an all-out campaign there. Meanwhile, the Mar. 20-31 Field poll shows Ford 4. The Blacks: Georgia State Senator Julian Bond and Congressman ahead of RR again by 47-42%, after RR led by 54-37% in January and 48-47% in Ron Dellums have declined to run as black Independent nominees, and Detroit December. But California is volatile, and RR may be ahead again, thanks to Rep. John Conyers is expected to decline, but organizers say a black Inde- his early May surge. With both sides planning all-out efforts here, the cam- pendent candidate will be identified by May. So far, there's no indication of paign should be enormously bitter. Half of the old Reagan team is with Ford many state ballots they can make -- or will make. In the meantime, our mon- (notably State GOP Chairman Paul Haerle, Air Force Secretary Tom Reed, Skip itoring of the Atlanta and Detroit papers shows that Bond and Conyers are Watts, Stu Spencer et al) In "New West" magazine (4/26), California Journal continuing to damn Carter with Hitlerian analogies, etc. editor Ed Salzman lays out the theme -- quoting pro-Ford Republicans-- that RR Note: most of the Independent ballot positions will only become "destroyed the GOP in California." Look for more of that a veritable Repub- firm in July, August or September. Spokesmen for each campaign operation tell lican civil war. The wounds salted here could make it very difficult for the us that they don't expect the media to pay much attention until -- all of a GOP to unite in Kansas City. We'll follow up with more on California, plus sudden -- it's August and many states have 4-5 major party or serious splinter the dynamics of a second or third ballot nomination. All of this coming apart candidates on the ballot. We continue to think that the GOP may come apart at the political seams augurs poorly for GOP chances in November. this year DRD POLITICAL NOTES THE AMERICAN POLITICAL REPORT 1. Detente -- There's no doubt which way this issue cuts if you (5/3/76) ELECTION 1976 SUPPLEMENT carefully analyze the various polls. Take Lou Harris' claim that Reagan's raising the detente issue is an "enormous political favor" for Ford. This is I. Carter Versus Ford -- The Prospects: National polls are mixed, based on responses to Harris's March poll question: "Do you favor or oppose state polls are mixed, and it's too early to say how a Ford-Carter race would further detente between the U.S. and Russia -- that is, closer cooperation and come out. Both candidates will face major intra-party problems Carter's big more agreement between the two countries?" 59% of the national sample said yes, asset, outsidership, is also becoming his Achilles Heel (lone wolf zealotry, 23% said no, 18% were not sure. But look at the wording -- Harris was asking lack of experience). Even so, it's possible to isolate and analyze some of about support for the theory of detente, not the 1975-76 practice. In con- the trends and forces that will be at work. trast, NBC News and CBS-New York Times polls were more specific. CBS-New York A) The GOP and the Washington Establishment: During the Nixon years, Times asked (Apr. 10-15) "Secretary of State Henry Kissinger has made too many the GOP was anti-Washington power structure, anti-media, anti-bureaucrat, and concessions which have hurt the American position in the world -- do you agree obviously uncomfortable in the city whose White House it controlled. Nixon or disagree?" Over 50% agreed, slightly more than one-third disagreed by 46- promoted anti-Liberal Establishment themes and polarizing issues (from Vietnam 43%. But then another question was asked: "It is not in our interest to be to busing). With these tensions so focused, no Jimmy Carter could have emerged so friendly with Russia because we are giving more than we are getting -- do in the Democratic party or primaries. But Ford quickly abandoned anti-Estab- you agree or disagree?" Sixty-one percent of the Democrats agreed, 55% of lishment politics by 1) avoiding anti-press tactics, going to parties at Kay Independents and 63% of Republicans (this prompted the New York Times to ob- Graham's and letting Ron Nessen host an NBC show; 2) avoiding a politics of serve -- in contrast to Harris -- that "63% of Republicans polled opposed recrimination over Vietnam and other dissipations of U. S. power; 3) pursuing detente".) As for NBC surveys, March primary voters in Mass., Fla. and N. C. only minimal attacks on Congress and the Washington power structure; and 4) were asked to agree or disagree with the statement that "Russia benefits most avoiding gut Middle American cultural and social politics, notably issues like from detente with the U. S." In Mass., 59% of the Democrats agreed and 61% of busing, quotas, welfare and suburban housing. The net result was 1) to enable the Republicans; in Florida, 64% of Democrats, 70% of Republicans; in N.C., 59% Carter to steal the anti-Washington Establishment banner and 2) to subordinate of Democrats agreed and 57% of GOP voters. We add it up this way. voters issues like Vietnam, international retreat, busing, quotas et al which -- if practice. favor detente in theory, but a majority feel we have lost from Ford-Kissinger focused by the White House against the Democrats -- would have created enough internal Democratic furor to block the rise of a straddle Southern candidate 2. The Politics of Business Regulation: For over a year, there's like Carter. been a subtle tension between those who aim business "deregulation" tactics at B) The Southern Strategy: Abandoning Richard Nixon's Southern-cum- abolishing or overhauling old-line agencies like the ICC and CAB, and those who Sun Belt strategy for a Northern Rockefeller-Laird-Rumsfeld strategy, Ford feel that any meaningful reform process must focus on agencies like the Envi- also dropped the combative social-issue, nationalistic and re-alignment themes ronmental Protection Agency, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, used by Nixon. Remember: Ford's popularity in Dixie dropped sharply in Aug- the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission and the Consumer Product Safety ust 1974, even before the pardon, because of the shift obvious in his Rockefel- Commission. Last week, the editor of this newsletter participated with Senator ler-Goodell-amnesty moves. Under Ford, whose advisers are heavily Great Lakes Charles Percy and Prof. Murray Weidenbaum in the U S. Chamber of Commerce's business oriented, the GOP has gone back to its "Old Minority" mentality, shed- 1976 Regulatory Reform panel. In 1975, Percy -- who favors revamping the ICC, ing the "New Majority" dynamic which went hand in hand with the Southern Strat- CAB and financial agencies while going soft on the new breed of social regula- egy. As APR indicated within a few weeks after Ford took office, this Ford tory agency -- tried to push the Chamber towards the ICC-CAB focus, and he took "Yankee" shift made a challenge from Sun Belt re-alignment conservatives almost his own poll at the 1975 meeting purporting to show that businessmen were over- inevitable. And Ronald Reagan's campaign has pretty much mirrored this region- whelmingly in favor of phasing out the ICC and CAB. This year, the Chamber's al and cultural dynamic. RR is strongest in exactly the South, Southwest, own poll made it clear that businessmen have a different focus. Attendees at Rocky Mountains and Wallaceite ethnic areas where the pro-New Majority GOP re- the regulatory session were asked to name the agency that added the most cost alignment dynamic was strongest from 1964-72. Assuming RR loses in Kansas to doing business: 129 picked EPA, 87 picked OSHA, 38 picked EEOC and 10 pick- City, and the Ford "Old Minority" prevails, many Reaganites (and still more of ed CPSC. Concern was also voiced that Percy's new bill -- which calls for the voting streams they represent) will write off the GOP as incapable of voic- reviewing all federal regulatory agencies over a 5-year period (1977-81) --- led ing issues or pushing needed re-alignment. Thus, substantial Reaganite and off with financial agencies that would focus anti-business rhetoric while post- other GOP realignment elements would just as soon see Ford lose in November, poning action on the real problem agencies (EPA would be reviewed in 1978, CPSC so that the GOP -- out of power -- can either change or be replaced by a new and OSHA in 1980, EEOC in 1981). Regulatory expert Weidenbaum -- who empha- party that will focus re-alignment dynamics and issues. Also, Ford's abandon- sizes a vital distinction between oldline agencies and the much greater threat ment of the Southern Strategy, coupled with George Wallace's unsurmountable of the new agencies whose social objectives cut across industry lines (and health problem, has made it possible for a moderately conservative Southern often without regard to business economics or paperwork burdens) -- won strong Democratic candidate to rise instead of being dragged down by regionally di- applause when he urged Percy to switch focus so that Congressional considera- visive issues. Given these circumstances, Carter has a good chance of winning tion of regulatory reform would begin with the painful foursome, EPA, OSHA, most of the Southern states in November. Ford has booted the issues that EEOC and CPSC. Since the April 27 Chamber panel, Percy has indicated some would have 1) blocked Carter's rise and 2) made it impossible for a national willingness too. to consider that change. The tide may be turning on Capitol Hill, Democrat to win Dixie in November. C) Carter and the Democrats: Under normal circumstances, Northern OF LIBRARY Democratic liberals would not have had to worry about a Carter. With Nixon- pendent Senate hopeful Bruce Bradley, failing to get the necessary 51,000 pe- tion signatures, is challenging the early filing requirement in the courts. In type issues dominating the scene, he could not have emerged, and the Democratic Tennessee, the Nashville Tennessean reports (4/18) that polls show GOP incum- nominee would have been a liberal acceptable to the party's liberal majority bent William Brock "in an extremely precarious condition for a politician who and power structure. As a result, Carter's emergence comes under circumstances has been in office 13 years." His job approval rating is 30%. But all Tennes- extremely threatening to the liberal Democratic power structure that has grown see media agree the Democrats are having trouble finding an atrractive candi- up over the last decade. If Carter is nominated, he will be the first modern date their hopefuls are shopworn, lackluster or little known. John Jay Democratic nominee 1) chosen from the South; 2) chosen over the opposition of Hooker, 1970 gubernatorial candidate, has said he'll take a poll in May and most of organized labor; 3) boosted by an anti-Washington Establishment cam- announce his decision after the May 25 presidential primary. If Hooker runs, paign; and 4) chosen in opposition to the big city power-brokers of the North- he's a strong favorite to win the primary, but a recent trial heat showed him east. Obviously, this hardly suggests a reconstitution of the New Deal coali- losing to Brock by 41-34%. Also, Gerald Ford's conceivable selection of Brock tion; indeed Carter's 35-40% minority of party voters tend to be the least or fellow Tennessee GOP Senator Howard Baker for V. p. could affect things loyal Democrats, the middle-income and rural types most likely to vote Republi- can for President in the last decade. In our opinion, Carter's emergence is (per the Tennessee Journal): If Brock is slated for V. p. in August, he must resign the Senate nomination and the state GOP executive committee would pick dynamite under the foundations of the Democratic Party and reflects the weak- another candidate. However, Ford could choose Howard Baker. If so, and Baker ness of the present two-party arrangement. Since the early 1960s, the presi- dential Democratic party has been re-aligning onto a Northern liberal base, resigns before Aug. 23, state law requires that an election be held in Novem- ber. State party executive committees would pick the nominees. More likely, and Carter's success conflicts as squarely with that shift as Ford's "Old Min- Baker would not resign until elected V. P., leaving a vacancy to be filled by ority" retreat does with the GOP's 1964-72 Sun Belt-ethnic shift. For this reason, watch several potential threats to Carter labor, the Liberal Estab- likeliest nominees would be ex-Gov. Winfield Dunn (1970-74) and defeated 1974 appointment of Gov. Ray Blanton (D). If a GOP nomination does open up, the two lishment, the Gene McCarthy intelligentsia (see McCarthy third-party analysis). D) The Stability Issue: As between Ford and Carter, Carter clearly gubernatorial candidate Lamar Alexander. In Nebraska, Gov. J. J. Exon sees Zorin- the represents the larger possibility of unstable politics. Far more than Repub- May 11 Democratic Senate primary as a toss-up between Omaha Mayor Edward lican Ford, Carter has run against -- and offended -- the Washington's Demo- sky and liberal Hess Dyas (Omaha World-Herald, 4/22). In North Dakota, ex- State Sen. Donald Holand of Fargo is the new possibility as a near-sacrificial cratic congressional power structure. Over the last eight years, Congress has lamb opponent for incumbent Quentin Burdick (Fargo Forum, 4/20). In Arizona, massively increased its staff and budget to cope with Nixon and Ford, and re- lations with Carter would probably be about as bad (Carter and the Georgia polls taken by California's Decisionmaking Information in tandem with the GOP State Committee and Rep. Sam Steiger shows Steiger leading Rep. John Conlan for legislature didn't get along either). Meanwhile, if Ford loses, New Majority- the Senate nomination by 45-38% (Arizona Republic, 4/15). But Conlan is ex- type conservatives will try to scuttle the weak, White House-shorn GOP in favor of a new movement or vehicle. Privately, rightwing planners and McCarthyites pected by many to pull ahead before the September primary. The same poll shows Steiger beating either likely Democratic nominee. He leads Dennis DeConcini by alike agree that Carter's election offers the best hope for breaking up the 48-32% and Carolyn Warner by 45-35%. Out in California, the newest Field poll present two-party system. Should this be widely perceived in U. S. leadership shows incumbent John Tunney (D) far ahead of primary challenger Tom Hayden ranks -- that Carter's election would trigger the most instability while Ford's (58-15%). On the GOP side, conservative S. I. Hayakawa has pulled ahead of re-election would promote the status quo and curb party disintegration thrusts moderate-liberal Robert Finch (33-28%, with 11% backing A1 Bell). Field data -- it could be a major plus for Ford. Carter is already suspect for being a shows that Tunney would beat either in November he leads Hayakawa by 54-30%, lone wolf, inexperienced, and something of a religious zealot. Therefore, with many Reaganites and conservatives already alienated, Ford may find it politic Finch by 56-29%. Looking at the 11 GOP-held seats, two now seem likely to fall -- to 1) opt for an Establishment runningmate like Rockefeller or Richardson; 2) try to make a deal with labor (that would mean Rocky); and 3) run a moderate, Maryland and Hawaii; one is very shaky Pennsylvania; another may be in "experience and safety" campaign aimed at the Establishment and the big North- jeopardy -- N. Y.; three appear safe Vermont, Connecticut, Nebraska; four more show the GOP well ahead -- Delaware, Tennessee, Ohio and Arizona. We see ern states. It could work, especially if Carter's personality begins to sour people and Gene McCarthy can grab away 4-8% (mostly from Carter) in key North- only three Democratic likely losses -- Indiana, Missouri and (maybe) Utah. No ern states. significant party shift is taking shape. III. Gubernatorial Race Update: In Vermont, State Sen. Robert II. U. S. Senate Race Updates: In Connecticut, the Hartford Courant O'Brien is a third entrant into the Democratic gubernatorial primary, taking says Secretary of State Gloria Schaffer "appears to have sewed up the Demo- votes from leaders State Treasurer Stella Hackel and Lt. Gov. Brian Burns. cratic nomination for the U. S. Senate" (4/14). Rep. H. J. Heinz's narrow The W. H. Long Marketing "North Carolina" Poll for April shows the GOP guber- (38%) victory in Pennsylvania's GOP Senate primary has left his campaign with natorial primary race as follows: David Flaherty, 30.4%, Coy Privette, 24.6%, deep scars. Local press reports emphasized charges of corruption and vote buy- Jacob Alexander, 4.3%. On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. James Hunt leads with ing made against Heinz by GOP opponents, plus charges of Heinz's arrogance. 49.4%, Edward O'Herron is next with 31.5%. Turning to West Virginia, the Democratic nominee Rep. William Green appears to be a slight November favor- Charleston Gazette (4/25) rates the Democrats "a cinch" to pick up the govern- ite. In Maryland's Democratic Senate primary (May 18), Rep. Paul Sarbanes orship, saying Jay Rockefeller "is thought to be in front" in the Democratic trailed ex-Senator Joe Tydings by less in mid-April (41-31%) than in February primary. Meanwhile, the Gazette (4/18) indicates that if Gov. Arch Moore (R) (46-28%) per a Baltimore Sun poll. Meanwhile, the Sun poll (4/22) shows Tyd- is convicted of extortion in his current trial, he will lose office as soon as ings beating Republican incumbent J. Glenn Beall by 39-33%, while Sarbanes and the jury delivers its verdict. There is no lieutenant governor, so State Beall tie at 32% each. Beall has lost ground since February. Maryland inde- Senate President William T. Brotherton, Jr. (D) would become governor. ADVERIT Montana Gov. Tom Judge (D), under fire for 1972 financial irregularities, could be in trouble. He is unopposed in the primary, but Lt. Gov. Bill Christiansen says he'd accept the nomination if he were nominated by write-ins in the June 1 primary (Great Falls Tribune, 4/17). Attorney General Robert Woodahl is favored in the GOP primary. Washington's gubernatorial race is heating up Seattle Mayor Wes Uhlman has entered, but his poll shows ex-AEC Commissioner Dixie Lee Ray ahead (Seattle Times, 4/14). King County Assessor Harley Hoppe leads King County Executive John Spellman on the GOP side, per Uhlman's poll. But it's a long way to the primary, and both races are close. IV. U. S. House Race Update: As we continue to watch the candidacies and primaries, there's yet to be any real sign of substantial GOP gains in the House of Representatives. If anything, things are going the other way. With Jimmy Carter the probable Democratic nominee, party incumbents and aspirants in marginal districts across the South and Border now feel much better and we think they're right. Right now, it looks like Carter's nomination could nip in the bud GOP chances to make fair gains in states like North Carolina, Georgia and Missouri. What's more, there are even signs that serious Democrats are getting ready to tackle such hitherto solidly Republican districts as John Duncan's in East Tennessee. We are now inclined to estimate that the GOP will break about even in the South and Border instead of gaining 3-5 seats, and this makes the probable nationwide GOP pickup no higher than 10-15. We'll do a full survey of marginal districts again in a few weeks, but for the moment, here are some updates In Pennsylvania, following the primary, the GOP has a good chance to pick up the 3rd District seat held by Rep. Robert Edgar (D). The Republican candidate, John Kenney, is an attractive 33-year-old lawyer. But the GOP could lose anywhere from 1-4 seats, with the weakest being 23rd District incumbent Rep. Albert Johnson, who barely survived his primary, and Rep. Gary Myers (25th District). In Delaware, Thomas Evans, the GOP frontrunner for the seat being vacated by Rep. Pete duPont (R), is way ahead of the Democrats in fund- raising and is generally favored. In New Jersey, the 14th District seat being vacated by Rep. Dominick Daniels (D) is expected to go to State Assembly Speaker Joseph A. LeFante (D). In Maryland, a poll by the Baltimore Sun (4/19) gives activist Barbara Mikulski (D) "a strong lead" in the 3rd District primary over State Sen. J. J. Curran for the seat being vacated by Rep. Paul Sarbanes (D). In Georgia, where talk of 6th District Rep. John Flynt retiring "has sub- sided". State Rep. Frank I. Bailey (D) has a fat $150,000 primary war chest (Atlanta Constitution, 4/14); and in the 7th District, local District Demo- cratic Chairman Ron Drake is challenging incumbent Rep. Larry MacDonald (D), a rightwing John Bircher, in the primary. This means Democratic infighting in the two districts where the GOP has a chance (although Carter's probable nomi- nation is shrinking that chance). South Carolina's John Jenrette faces a rough primary, and is unlikely to avoid a run-off, which would drain his time and money for the November election. Meanwhile, one local poll shows that the certain GOP nominee -- ex. Rep. Ed Young, who narrowly lost to Jenrette in 1974 -- is ahead by 44-38%, with the rest undecided. This one is shaping up as the one best GOP pick-up potential in the Southeast. Looking westward, the GOP hopes to unhorse Texas Rep. Bob Eckhardt (D) the way they beat candidate Bob Gammage in the neighboring Houston district. Former TV Newsman Nick Gearhart is the Republican hopeful. The Houston Chronicle (4/17) says that Eckhardt's strong majorities in past races "seem to contradict" GOP optimism (and APR agrees). In Arizona, Barry Goldwater says it's going to be "an uphill fight" to hold the two House seats being vacated by GOP Reps. Sam Steiger and John Conlan. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Date: 5/17/76 TO: KENDALL LEPPERT MAY 21 1976 LOEFFLER SENCKES ROWLAND FROM: MAX L. FRIEDERSDORF For your information Please handle Please see me Comments, please Other FORD is LIBRARY QERALD Volume V, Number 17 The May 14, 1976 American Kevin Phillips, Editor-Publisher Political Published by the American Political Research Corporation 4720 Montgomery Avenue Bethesda, Maryland 20014 Telephone (301) 654-4990 Report THE FORD ADMINISTRATION With late hour Michigan polls worrisome for Gerald Ford, any primary victory there on May 18 must count as a plus for the President and a defeat would put him in danger of a collapse. Here are the fast-changing prospects for the late May and June primaries: May 25: Absent a surprise in Michigan, Reagan is ahead in five of the six primaries -- Nevada, Idaho, Kentucky, Tennessee and Arkansas. Crossovers will be important in Arkansas (where State Reagan director Judy Petty is openly calling for Wallaceites to back Reagan because of "shared concerns") and Tennes- see (where Reaganites are pitching for crossovers, and Democratic Gov. Ray Blan- ton is encouraging fellow party members to vote for Reagan in order to play havoc with the pro-Ford Tennessee State GOP leadership structure -- see the 5/6 Memphis Commercial-Appeal). Based on growing crossover potential (local polls now show Wallace Democratic primary strength collapsing), RR could win more solidly than expected in Arkansas and Tennessee. Of the six May 25 primaries, Ford leads in only one -- Oregon. And keep a close eye on Oregon too, because back in December, the Bardsley-Haslacher poll (Portland Oregonian) showed Ford ahead only 43-42%. We think that RR's national surge has carried him back to December levels, so that even Oregon could be within reach. Needless to say, a RR six-primary sweep would be devastating to Ford. June 1: As of today, it looks like Ford will win only in Rhode Island, while RR carries Montana and South Dakota. June 8: All observers now give Reagan a solid edge in California, the only June 8 primary that really matters. A brand new Mervin Field poll taken between May 6-8 shows RR back out in the lead by ten percentage points (49% to 39%). Even in Ohio, where RR has slates in only two-thirds of the congression- al districts, local observers now expect RR to win a small but significant bloc of delegates. For all these reasons, right now it looks like RR may go to the Kansas City convention with 1025-1075 delegates while Ford (even with his uncommitted allies) can't count on a first-ballot strength of more than 900-950. For a sitting President, this would normally be fatal. Although Reaganite scenarios for a first ballot victory are now plaus- ible and being taken quite seriously, we still see a number of negative influ- ences. First, unless Ford withdraws, the California primary will feature a bloody White House attack on Reagan's personal competence and record as Gover- nor of California. Second, in July and early August, as GOP delegates prepare to go to Kansas City, we expect to see national polls (especially those taken after the Democratic convention hoopla) that show probable nominee Jimmy Carter clobbering Ronald Reagan by 15 to 25 percentage points. Meanwhile, national polls may show Ford losing by only 5-10 points in a race that would be much less upsetting to Northern and Midwestern GOP state leaders and legislators. We don't buy the script of RR putting together a "New Majority" against Carter, © 1976. By the American Political Research Corporation. Published biweekly at $94 a year, $110 overseas (airmail). Reproduction or quotation without specific permission is prohibited by law. LIBRARY and by August, the prospect of a smashing Reagan defeat could be causing dele- gate hesitation (see PP. 5-6). Third, repudiation of a sitting President and his Administration also raises important questions. If Ford hasn't withdrawn or laid down the sword well before Kansas City, Reagan's nomination by the GOP would be worthless even before it was voted. Bear in mind that the GOP -- either Reagan or Ford -- will have real trouble with the Wallace vote this year. The small numbers of Wallace voters crossing over to vote for RR in various primaries may have had a big impact on those primaries, but they don't add up to a "New Majority" in the November election. This, then, is another possible Reagan weakness to watch for through August Suppose George Wallace comes out for Carter? That would drastically reduce the plausibility of a Reagan candidacy. And this is just what seems to be happening. Wallace is reading Carter's poll strength in the South and thinking about claiming a role in the reversal of Democratic ideology. Accord- ing to the Birmingham News (5/5), "If Carter does win the nomination, Wallace has all but said he'll support him.' They quote Wallace as saying "I'm going to speak out for the Democratic Party if they want me to As time passes, I feel that Carter delegates, Wallace delegates and other delegates will talk among ourselves." A kindred analysis in the 4/25 Los Angeles Times has Wallace aides predicting that most of the Alabamian's expected 250-300 delegates would go to Carter. They said that "Mickey Griffin, Wallace's national delegate co- ordinator, was the most emphatic about the possibility of a switch to Carter at later ballots at the convention." Paul McCormick, Wallace's Deep South coordi- nator and Mid-South coordinator Michael Talent concurred that most Wallace del- gates would end up supporting Carter. Close Wallace aide Cecil Jackson indi- cated that Wallace would want some sort of acknowledgement of his impact on the issues he has spoken about over the years. Thus, the big question may be: Will Ford quit? If Ford does, then the arguments against a Reagan nomination lose headway. But if Ford stays in the race, then he stands to profit from going after Reagan with knives and hatchets because if RR can be made to look weak enough, delegates are still more likely to turn to the sitting President than to anyone else. Meanwhile, several key Ford allies are beginning to make eyes at Reagan in hopes of being picked as his vice-presidential runningmate. One is Iowa Gov. Robert Ray, who says that Reagan's impetus may now carry into the May 18-19 Iowa congressional district and state conventions. Ray still says Ford is more "electable" in November, but adds "I wouldn't want to say that Ron Rea- gan isn't" (Baltimore Sun, 5/8). Then there's Treasury Secretary William Simon the Los Angeles Times (5/8) quotes "some Republican analysts" as saying that Simon's best chance to run for V. P. would be with Reagan (and that Simon would accept). Simon has been one of Ford's biggest fundraisers. In the past he has expressed admiration for Reagan and for the Californian's opposition to govern- ment spending and excessive regulation of business. The Times quotes an Admin- istration aide saying "Simon would solidify a Reagan ticket. What Reagan would need is someone who could calm people's fears that he is a kook and show that he is solid." Our analysis is that Simon would help Reagan marginally with Northern financial leaders, but that RR couldn't carry these states anyway, and that Simon would be no help in the South and West (if anything, a millionaire Wall Street bond salesman would be a minus with the Wallace vote). Don't pay too much attention to the vice-presidential manuevering. John Connally would probably be Reagan's best runningmate -- simultaneously re- assuring business and helping in the South -- but even Connally's impact would be marginal (and he may now want to stay away from the 1976 GOP ticket). If RR is the GOP nominee against Carter, no vice-presidential nominee is likely to make much difference. 2 RELIGION AND THE 1976 POLITICAL UPHEAVAL In considering the importance of religion in this bicentennial elec- tion year, don't dismiss it as just a coincidence of Jimmy Carter's twice-born Baptist faith. On the contrary, today's surging religious "Counter-Reforma- tion" is one of the most important -- and also least understood -- trends in American culture and politics. Its genesis, scope and probable impact are absolutely essential to serious political crystal-ball gazing. Here are the key facts and capsuled analyses: 1. The Size and Importance of the Counter-Reformation: Because of reaction against social, cultural and moral upheaval of the Sixties, tradi- tionalist, fundamentalist religions have been gaining adherents on a large scale while fashionable liberal churches have been losing members. Per the 1975 "Yearbook of American and Canadian Churches", among the most rapidly grow- ing denominations are Southern Baptists, Jehovah's Witnesses, Seventh Day Adventists and Mormons. For example, Southern Baptists (the denomination least involved in social activism) typically gain 200-250,000 new members annu- ally. In contrast, look at the slumping liberal denominations involved in dis- armament and anti-racism campaigns. The 1975 Yearbook reported these one-year membership drops: Episcopal (down 145,569), United Methodist (down 142,256), United Presbyterian (down 100,016) and United Church of Christ (down 27,306). But as a result of the fundamentalist tide, a record 70% of Americans are church members today, far exceeding other countries. Theologian Will Herberg offers this historical trend analysis: "Available figures indicate that about 1800, America was the least churched of all Western countries. Maybe 10-15 percent of all Americans then belonged to churches. Even by 1900, the figure came to about 35%. Today America is the most churched nation in the West -- a tremendous revolution." Back in 1973, futurist Herman Kahn said: "Remember that 67% of America is quite square and getting squarer. I call this the counter-reformation, the counter-counterculture. It's the biggest thing going in America today and it will either dominate or heavily influence the next decade or two The biggest part of the counter-reformation is, in fact, a movement towards fundamentalist religions The United States is the only country that seems to be going through this counter-reformation on a large scale." More information on the trend can be found in Methodist scholar Dean Kelley's book "Why Conservative Churches are Growing", and the political impli- cations were embellished in "Religion and the New Majority", by Gerald Strober and Lowell Streiker, a 1972 account of how the nation's 20 million fundamenta- list voters were becoming increasingly decisive. All of these trends now seem to be reaching a critical mass in national politics. 2. Increasing Religious Impact on Politics: Besides ex-Baptist mis- sionary Carter, the leading presidential candidates of 1976 all have the new religious coloration. Morris Udall is a Mormon; George Wallace underwent a personal religious experience after his 1972 injury; Jerry Brown is an ex- Jesuit seminarian (who told a Los Angeles Catholic school group last year that "if you want to know what any administration will be like, look at St. Igna- tius' 11th and 12th rules"); Ronald Reagan is emphasizing issues like anti- abortion and school prayer constitutional amendments; and Gerald Ford is an evangelical Christian (an August 1974 Time article entitled "The God Network in Washington" described how Ford was deeply involved in a Capitol Hill prayer group, and was a close friend of Rev. Billy Zeoli, evangelist head of Gospel Films, Inc., of Muskegon, Michigan). Meanwhile, the emergence of national-level religious candidates is paralleled in many states. An unprecedented number of ministers and religious FORD 3 LIBRARY activists have entered Congressional races. The majority are conservatives, and the liberal National Committee for an Effective Congress is reportedly disburbed, and so are some of the more liberal operatives in the Republican Congressional Committee. What's more, several state Republican parties are being invaded by religious groups anxious to form new alignments and movements. In Maine, revivalist Baptists have packed GOP caucuses to chastise foes of In- dependent Gov. James Longley, a conservative Catholic who has plans for a national third party movement. In North Carolina, Baptist Rev. Coy Privette is one of the frontrunning GOP gubernatorial candidates. In South Carolina, fundamentalists anxious to advance the candidacy of Rev. Billy Richardson have taken over local GOP organizations. In Montana, two Republicans -- ex-State Sen. Jack McDonald and Garfield County Attorney Douglas Kelley -- filed as a primary team for governor and lieutenant governor saying that Montana should have the opportunity to elect men who will "seek the counsel of our Heavenly Father." Both prayed and fasted before deciding to file (Billings Gazette, 4/16). In Arizona, one Senate candidate, Rep. John Conlan (R), has been en- dorsed by Billy Graham and is running on a platform of supporting biblical principles. A liberal GOP party official has accused Conlan of "attempting to restore sectarian faith as a test for office" (Arizona Republic, 5/8). In a related vein, note that several leading "New Right" strategists --- George Wallace fundraiser and direct mail czar Richard Viguerie and Commit- tee for the Survival of a Free Congress (CSFC) Director Paul Weyrich -- are conservative traditionalist Catholics who look for religious candidates and themes to play a major role in conservative politics. Note also that funda- mentalism is developing a strong ecumenicalism -- conservative Protestant and Catholic groups are working together against Catholic or Protestant liberals. 3. The Future of Religious Politics: Back in 1972, Richard Nixon -- with his Billy Graham link and developing ties to conservative Catholic cardi- nals in New York, Philadelphia and elsewhere -- appeared to be harnessing the Counter-Reformation on behalf of a "New Majority" GOP. Then Watergate came along. Our analysis. Ford and Reagan have probably lost the chance to use the GOP as a vehicle again because of A) Watergate and B) the rise of Carter. The Georgian's appeal to Christian evangelical votes is strong, and quite a few conservative strategists are privately inclined to think that this Carter constituency could ultimately draw him into a neo-Nixonian, somewhat New Major- ityish conflict with Washington's liberal power centers. Thus, there's a con- siderable inclination to stay loose and stay ready to back Carter (presuppos- ing his election) in any future confrontation that might develop with Congress, the Supreme Court, the AFL-CIO, the national media and the general Washington power structure. If the United States is on the verge of a wave of religious politics, the implications are enormous. Immersion in religion or pseudo-religion has been a hallmark of defeated or weakened empires seeking a revival of their power. Some good examples are Rome, 17th Century Spain and post-World War One Germany. Spain had the Inquisition, Germany its Nuremberg rallies and Hitler- ian pseudo-religion. Herman Kahn describes how Roman Emperor Augustus led a counter-reformation that turned the clock back and restored old values. Per Kahn "the Romans turned to religiosity -- including, eventually, Christianity. Augustus launched a counter-reformation that worked." Augustus also encouraged massive building projects to encourage pride. Carter's seeming inclination to a strong, messianic presidency could lead in the same direction. In our opin- ion, Carter's potential to combine religion and a strong presidency deserves a lot more attention than it has received so far in the campaign. 4 FORD AND REAGAN VERSUS CARTER: A COMPARISON Assuming that Jimmy Carter is the Democratic nominee -- an assumption that is still a bit shaky in light of Frank Church and Jerry Brown -- we would expect Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan to notch up substantially different show- ings in the general election. Back during the winter, Gallup found Reagan and Ford with very similar general election profiles. That is no longer true. Right now, our analysis is that Carter would beat either Reagan or Ford, but he would beat Reagan more decisively. Nor does the GOP have another candidate who could do better. We don't see the convention turning to Connal- 1y (and Carter could probably beat JBC pretty easily) or to Nelson Rockefeller or to Howard Baker. The GOP problem is probably the same very simple one that faced the Whigs in the 1850s --- an exhausted coalition and an inadequate ve- hicle for issue mobilization. Ford versus Carter: Gallup puts Carter ahead by 53-42%, Harris by 47- 43%, a Washington Post survey by 48-34%. That's in a two-way race. But the strong probability is that we'll see a multi-candidate contest with three, four or five somewhat substantial candidates. In the end, our guess is that Carter would beat Ford by 4-8 percentage points with a rightwing splinter candidate partly offsetting the impact of Eugene McCarthy. Under these circumstances, we'd definitely give Carter most of New England, plus New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, Ken- tucky, Missouri and most of the South. Ford would make a fair race in the Mid- dle West where he'd be helped by Eugene McCarthy inroads into normal Democratic strength in states like Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa. The Plains States would be iffy. Ford would be a slight favorite in the Rocky Mountains, espe- cially in Wyoming, Idaho, Arizona and Utah. California would be close, with the outcome depending on the importance and effect of Eugene McCarthy and the eventual rightwing splinter candidate. Our estimate of easy Carter victory is based on a minimal Eugene McCarthy impact. If McCarthy's campaign clicks, in tandem with Democratic U FORD V. CARTER liberals, Mathias Republi- U cans or by himself, then he F F U U U. could be a real threat to F U Carter in a number of North- F C C F U U ern states. Unlikely McCar- C U U F F U C C thy showings of 10-20% could C U C C C tip a lot of major states to F C Ford. For Ford to beat Car- C. C C ter, we think it would take F C C U C C some major breakaway by lib- C C C eral Democrats. The map is F - FORD C C C an attempt to show the prob- C - CARTER able pattern of a Ford-Carter C U - UNCLEAR race. Reagan versus Carter: We agree with Washington Post pollsters, Harris and Yankelovich that Reagan would be unsuccessful against Carter. Polling in April, Harris found Carter ahead of Reagan by 53-34%. The chart overleaf, shows the breakdown by regions and groups. The Post put Carter ahead by 50-32%. Yan- kelovich bluntly says that Reagan would notch up another Goldwater-level defeat. Our estimate, absent a major impact by Gene McCarthy, is that Carter would smash Reagan by about 56-44%. RR's top problem is that he could not expect to carry more than part of the South. His greatest strength would come in the West, while he would lose the Northeast and Midwest to Carter. Moreover, we think it quite likely that a 56-44% popular victory for Carter would translate GERALD HARRIS POLLS (APRIL) Ford/Carter Reagan/Carter Ford/Carter Reagan/Carter Nation 43% 47% 34% 53% Moderates 45% 46% 35% 54% East 44 44 28 54 Republicans 80 18 64 27 South 38 55 37 54 Democrats 27 64 21 68 West 50 39 40 49 Independents 45 45 34 52 Midwest 43 48 39 52 Catholics 42 46 34 52 Conservatives 53 40 46 43 Protestants 49 45 40 50 Liberals 35 59 16 77 Jews 31 49 20 57 into an electoral college landslide, with RR carrying only a handful of states -- Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Oklahoma and possibly a couple in the Deep South. The map below shows the projected outcome of a Reagan-Carter race. C REAGAN V. CARTER APR cannot agree with Reagan's U U U C talk of marshalling a "New Maj- C C C R C € ority" of Republicans, Demo- U U C C crats, Independents and Wall- C C a aceites. Here's why: R C U R C U C C 1) The South -- Southerner C C U C C U Carter would beat Reagan in a C C region that's central to his R U R C hoped-for coalition. U U 2) Wallace voters -- We think U C R - REAGAN U U that Wallace would back Carter, C - CARTER U and that much of the Wallace U - UNCLEAR vote will go to Carter rather than Reagan. 3) Evangelists -- The Counter-Reformation described in pp. 3-4 was a key in- gredient of the GOP 1964-72 surge. Wholesale capture of the evangelical vote by Carter undercuts the Reagan strategy, especially in the South. 4) Farmers -- Carter is saying that he would be the first farmer in the White House since Thomas Jefferson. That will work in rural areas, especially in the Baptist rural counties of the South and Border. 5) Outsidership -- RR would normally run against the Washington power struc- ture, but Carter has already pre-empted enough of that theme to greatly under- cut a RR challenge. 6) Conservatism -- Carter's ideological package may be nearer the New Majority mentality of social traditionalism and economic activism than Reagan's National Review type of package. Where Carter is potentially weak -- on issues like busing, quotas and urban policy -- he has sidestepped any effective challenge. It helps Carter that Morris Udall is calling him "almost as conservative as Gerald Ford or Ronald Reagan" (Detroit Free Press, 5/5). For all these reasons, we don't give RR much of a chance against Car- ter, although Reagan would have a fair chance against Humphrey or any other liberal Democrat. Watch George Wallace carefully. If he moves towards Carter, that's a signal that Reagan would be clobbered in November. Nor does Reagan have any option to shift away from a Southern-Western election strategy he can't hope to succeed as a Republican unity candidate re-emphasizing the North. The Republican Party does not look like a workable 1976 vehicle for a "New Majority" or any other combination. On the other hand, if Reagan had made a deal with George Wallace in 1975, a Reagan-Wallace third party bid might be heading towards a 35% November plurality against Ford and a liberal Democrat. 6 ELECTION 1976 1. Senate Race Update: In Delaware, GOP chances of re-electing Sen- ator William Roth have improved greatly as a result of Democratic fratricide. On May 8, one Democratic hopeful, Joe McInerny, bowed out of the primary in favor of running as a new party candidate. McInerny hates his Democratic rival, Wilmington Mayor Tom Maloney, who has leaked stories about McInerny taking pay- offs. Earlier, the Wilmington News (5/2) reported that Maloney has "turned off' important segments of organized labor in Delaware, and contributions to Maloney "have slowed to a trickle. The News speculates that because Maloney is unlike- 1y to get the endorsement of the Delaware State Labor Council, even as Demo- cratic nominee he won't get much money from unions. Mark Roth the clear favor- ite. In Ohio, the Cleveland Plain Dealer reported (5/3) that Rep. James Stant- on (D) acknowledges that if the Senate primary were held today, ex-Senator Howard Metzenbaum (D) would win. "Beating Metzenbaum will require name recog- nition attainable only through a television barrage." Widespread apathy favors Metzenbaum. New York Democratic Senate possibility Pat Moynihan says his can- didacy is still up in the air, and he'll make a decision in June. In Massachu- setts, the Boston Globe (5/2) reports that Edward Kennedy "was visibly dis- couraged" by the frequency with which he was asked about busing" even outside Boston in a homestate campaign swing. Even so, "his approval rating from voters has never dropped below 60%" and political figures expect him to win re- election with about that share of the vote. In Wisconsin, the Madison Capital- Times says that incumbent William Proxmire (D), "who has angered labor and municipal leaders in the state, will face a strong primary challenge this year.' The "most likely prospect" is Milwaukee City Comptroller James McCann, but retired Milwaukee County Executive John Doyne is also mentioned. The challenge to Proxmire is being orchestrated by "a coalition of municipal leaders headed by Milwaukee Mayor Henry Maier. In Mississippi, black leader Henry Jay Kirksey has announced that he will run in the June primary against Senator John Stennis (D), but the challenge is not seen as threatening to Stennis (Delta Democrat-Times, 4/28). In North Dakota, the Republicans finally have someone whose candidacy against strong incumbent Quentin Burdick (D) has gone beyond the rumor stage -- GOP candidate State Senator Robert Stroup is "a native of the state's coal region closely identified with coal-related legislation" (Fargo Forum, 5/1). In California, an analysis by the Los Angeles Times (5/5) gives S. I. Hayakawa's non-politician image credit for the "apparent success" of his campaign for the GOP nomination against John Tunney (D). Per the Times, Hayakawa "appears to be running comfortably ahead of such political veterans" as Bob Finch, John Harmer and A1 Bell. Incumbent Tunney is still regarded as the November favorite. II. U. S. House Race Update: In New Jersey, varying degrees of trouble for three Democrats Rep. Henry Helstoski, notorious because of his dealings with an alleged underworld hit man, is still favored to win the Demo- cratic primary and then the general election. The GOP has targeted Reps. Helen Meyner and Andrew Maguire as the incumbents most likely to be unseated. Both are seen facing strong challenges. (Trenton Times, 4/28). Massachusetts Rep. James Burke (D) now appears likely to seek re-election despite rumors that his health might force retirement. Meanwhile, division of anti-Burke efforts between one primary challenger, Patrick McCarthy, and liberal Danielle deBene- dictus, who has decided to run in November as an Independent, makes Burke a favorite to win re-election (Boston Globe, 4/30). In Tennessee, ex-Rep. LaMar Baker (R) has formally announced that he'll run again for his former Chattanoo- ga seat. Baker is a distinct underdog. Two interesting races in Virginia: In FORD GERALD 7 Lienas the southeastern 4th District now held by Rep. R. W. Daniel, Jr. (R), Democrat State Rep. Billy O'Brien, campaigning against primary opponent black civil rights leader Curtis Harris, deplores reports that Daniel supporters may vote in the primary to nominate Harris. The Richmond Times-Dispatch says that "ap- parently there is an understanding that whoever wins the primary will have the total support of district Democrats for the fall election," but this would probably not hold up if black activist Harris won. On the other hand, if O'Brien wins, there is a fair chance that Daniel (who has won twice in multi- candidate races) could lose in a two-man race. Nearby in the 1st District, where Rep. Tom Downing is retiring, State Sen. Herbert Bateman of Newport News switched to the GOP and will seek the GOP congressional nomination. State GOP Chairman George McMath says he'll support Bateman, who should indeed get the nomination (Richmond Times-Dispatch, 5/7). A tight November race is likely be- tween Bateman (if he's nominated) and the winner of what may be a rough three- way Democratic clash. Turning to the Midwest, Indiana's primaries have yielded some insights into the plausibility of GOP gains there. The most likely pick-up is the 6th District seat held by Rep. David Evans (D). Republican David Crane has a good shot. Heavy Republican voting in the open 8th District (Evansville) gives ex- Capitol Hill aide Belden Bell (R) a fair chance against David Cornwell (D). Other Democratic freshmen look safer, especially Floyd Fithian in the 2nd Dis- trict. In Missouri, an evaluation in St. Louisan magazine (May) continues to rate State House Minority Leader Robert Snyder (R) as the favorite to beat Web- ster Groves Mayor Jack Cooper (R) for the nomination in the open 2nd District (suburban St. Louis). However, Cooper is seen making a closer-than-expected race because of good local recognition and a healthy $80,000 campaign budget. Either is rated "a strong contender in the general election". Turning to the 3rd District, also open, the magazine sees the all-important Democratic primary as a "real horse race" between State Sen. Donald Gralike, the regular party favorite, and Alderman Richard Gephardt, a media favorite with backing from downtown law firms and business interests. In Minnesota, the 4th District Democratic-Farmer-Labor convention has endorsed State Rep. Bruce Vento, a labor favorite, for the seat being vacated by retiring Rep. Joseph Karth (D), but State Auditor Robert Mattson and former Gov. Karl Rolvaag have both indicated they might enter the September primary (Minneapolis Tribune, 5/3). In Ne- braska, State GOP Chairman Anne Batchelder says that the Omaha 2nd District seat being vacated by Rep. John McCollister (R) "could be our problem in the fall. (Omaha World-Herald, 4/29). Democrat John Cavanaugh has a good shot at winning. A footnote: In the Republican Congressional Committee's April news- letter, five districts were singled out in profiles of strong GOP Midwest con- gressional challenges: 6th Michigan, 3rd Wisconsin, 9th Ohio, 19th Ohio and 3rd Illinois. With primaries still to take place in Michigan, those listings were limited, but the Wisconsin, Ohio and Illinois listings can be taken as largely representing hopes in those states. Farther west, Idaho Rep. George Hansen (R) has drawn two primary op- ponents -- businessman George Forschler and lawyer-physician Glen Wegner. (Ida- ho Statesman, 4/27). Hansen may be vulnerable after this primary challenge, which he is likely to survive. In the next APR, we'll do a round-up on marginal House seats and like- ly gains by either party. We'll also try to assess the impact of a Reagan candidacy on GOP House prospects. There's a chance that the Republicans could drop somewhat below their present 145 seats if RR is the nominee, but specula- tion that the GOP could drop to 110 or 120 seats seems like scare talk. No careful analysis supports it not yet, at least. 8 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON may10 I attached distributed to Cong. checked Oh list. President Ford Committee 1828 L STREET, N.W., SUITE 250, WASHINGTON, D.C. 20036 (202) 457-6400 May 10, 1976 Dear Friend: The outstanding accomplishments of President Ford are contained in the enclosed talking paper. I am hopeful that in your campaign appearances you can use this material. With thanks and kindest regards. Sincerely, ROGERS C. Rog MORTON Morton Chairman The President Ford Committee, Rogers C.B. Morton, Chairman, Robert C. Moot, Treasurer. A copy of our Report is filed with the Federal Election Commission and is available for purchase from the Federal Election Commission, Washington, D.C. 20463. ADVOCATE TALKING POINTS 1. This is a tough race between a record of Presidential accomplishment and political rhetoric. 2. When the President took office 22 months, ago, the country: a. had lost confidence in government, b. was racked by inflation and unemployment caused by runaway government spending; a liberal Congress elected in 1974 threatened to accelerate this trend, C. had its national will called into question by our allies and our potential adversaries; for ten years, real defense spending had been reduced to finance social programs while the USSR stepped up its defense spending threatening eventual imbalance in the future. 3. The three tasks of the President were to: a. Restore public confidence and integrity in our government. b. Control government spending by the Congress to reverse the rates of inflation and une mployment; encourage growth of private sector instead of government to ensure steady economic progress and real jobs. C. Reverse the trend in our defense spending so that future America can deal with the Soviet threat from a position of strength. -2- 4. In the President's 22 months in office, he has: a. Restored integrity and respect for government through an open Administration. b. Restored balance in our economy by halting the growth of government spending by the Congress; his restraint has caused inflation to drop by one-half, our GNP to increase by 7.5% this first quarter and 2. 6 million more Americans are now working than before; his skillful use of the veto saved $13 billion in wasteful Congressional programs which would have pumped up the economy for the election year, but thrown us headlong into another recession. C. Proposed and, with your help, Congress has accepted the largest defense budget in peacetime history; this reverses a trend of cuts in our real defense spending for the last ten years, while the Soviet strength has grown; only by spending what we must on defense can we be sure that future Americans will be strong. 5. Our people once again believe in: a. the integrity of our system of government b. the vitality and prosperity of a growing economy C. remaining strong enough to defend our interests and those of our allies in a hostile world. ADVOCATES OFFICIAL LIST OF MEMBERS OF THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES OF THE UNITED STATES AND THEIR PLACES OF RESIDENCE NINETY-FOURTH CONGRESS APRIL 12, 1976 Compiled by EDMUND L. HENSHAW, JR., Clerk of the House of Representatives Democrats in roman (288); Republicans in italic (145); vacancies (2), 1st Pa., 1st Tex. total 435. Those marked * served in the Ninety-third Congress. Those marked t served in a previous Congress. Those marked 9 were Members of the Ninety-fourth Congress. Predecessors of incoming Members in heavy brackets ALABAMA 1. Jack Edwards* 2439 Mobile. 2. William L. Dickinson* 2436 Montgomery 3. Bill Nichols* Sylacauga. 4. Tom Bevill* Jasper. 5. Robert E. Jones* Scottsboro. 6. John Buchanan* 2159 Birmingham 7. Walter Flowers* Tuscaloosa. ALASKA AT LARGE Don Young* 1210 Fort Yukon. 1. John J. Rhodes* 2310 ARIZONA Mesa. 2. Morris K. Udall* Tucson. 3. Sam Steiger* Prescott. 4. John B. Conlan* Phoenix. ARKANSAS 1. Bill Alexander* Osceola. 2. Wilbur D. Mills* Kensett. 3. John Paul Hammerschmidt* 2453 Harrison. 4. Ray Thornton* Sheridan. (1) 57-067 QERALD FORD LIBRARY CALIFORNIA CONNECTICUT 1. Harold T. Johnson* Roseville. 1. William R. Cotter* Hartford. 2. Don H. Clausen* 2433 Crescent City. 2. Christopher J. Dodd [Robert H. Steele* North Stonington. 3. John E. Moss* Sacramento. 5. John L. Burton* FORD LEBRARY 3. Robert N. Giaimo* North Haven. 4. Robert L. Leggett* Suisun City. 4. Stewart B. McKinney* 504 Fairfield. San Francisco. 5. Ronald A. Sarasin* * 229 Beacon Falls. 6. Phillip Burton* San Francisco. 6. Anthony Toby Moffett [Ella T. Grasso** Unionville. 7. George Miller [Jerome R. Waldie*] Martinez. 8. Ronald V. Dellums* Berkeley. 9. Fortney H. (Pete) Stark* Danville. GERALD DELAWARE AT LARGE 10. Don Edwards* San Jose. Pierre S. (Pete) du Pont* 127 Wilmington 11. Leo J. Ryan* South San Francisco. 12. Paul N. McCloskey, Jr.* 205 FLORIDA Menlo Park. 1. Robert L. F. Sikes* Crestview. 13. Norman Y. Mineta [Charles S. Gubser*] San Jose. 2. Don Fuqua* Altha. 14. John J. McFall* Mantoca. 3. Charles E. Bennett* Jacksonville. 15. B. F. Sisk* Fresno. 16. Burt L. Talcott* 1536 Salinas. 4. Bill Chappell, Jr. Ocala. 5. Richard Kelly [Bill Gunter*] 1130 Holiday. 17. John Krebs [Robert B. (Bob) 413 Mathias*] Fresno. 18. William M. Ketchum* * Bakersfield. 6. C. W. Bill Young* 341 St. Petersburg. 19. Robert J. Lagomarsino* 1319 7. Sam Gibbons* Tampa. Ojai. 20. Barry M. Goldwater, Jr.* 1421 Burbank. 8. James A. Haloy* Sarasota. Reseda. 9. Louis Frey, Jr.* 214 Winter Park. 21. James C. Corman* 1208 10. L. A. (Skip) Bafalis* 408 22. Carlos J. Moorhead* Fort Myers Beach. Glendale. 11. Paul G. Rogers* West Palm Beach. 23. Thomas M. Rees* Beverly Hills. 12. J. Herbert Burke* 2442 24. Henry A. Waxman [Chet Holifield* Hollywood. Los Angeles. 13. William Lehman* North Miami 25. Edward R. Roybal* Los Angeles. 1706 Beach. 26. John H. Rousselot* San Marino. 27. Alphonzo Bell* 2329 14. Claude Pepper* Miami. Marina Del Rey. 15. Dante B. Fascell* Miami. 28. Yvonne Brathwaite Burke* Los Angeles. 29. Augustus F. Hawkins* Los Angeles. GEORGIA 30. George E. Danielson* Monterey Park. 1. Bo Ginn* Millen. 31. Charles H. Wilson* Hawthorne. 2. Dawson Mathis* 32. Glenn M. Anderson* Albany. Harbor City. 33. Del Clawson* * 2349 3. Jack Brinkley* Columbus. Downey. 34. Mark W. Hannaford [Craig Hosmer*] 4. Elliott H. Levitas [Ben B. Blackburn*] Atlanta. Lakewood. 35. Jim Lloyd [Victor V. Veysey*] 5. Andrew Young* Atlanta. West Covina. 6. John J. Flynt, Jr.* Griffin. 36. George E. Brown, Jr. Colton. 37. Shirley N. Pettis [Jerry L. Pettis' 1021 7. Larry McDonald [John W. Davis*] Marietta. Loma Linda. 38. Jerry M. Patterson [Richard T. Hanna*] Santa Ana. 8. W. S. (Bill) Stuckey, Jr.* Eastman. 39. Charles E. Wiggins* 2445 9. Phil M. Landrum* Jasper. Fullerton. 40. Andrew J. Hinshaw* Newport Beach. 10. Robert G. Stephens, Jr.* Athens. 41. Bob Wilson* 2307 San Diego. HAWAII 42. Lionel Van Deerlin* Chula Vista. 43. Clair W. Burgener* 36 1. Spark M. Matsunaga* Honolulu. Rancho Santa Fe. 2. Patsy T. Mink*. Waipahu. COLORADO IDAHO 1. Patricia Schroeder* Denver. 1. Steven D. Symms* / Caldwell. 2. Timothy E. Wirth [Donald G. Brotzman* Denver. 3. Frank E. Evans* 2. George Hansent [Oroal Hansen* 1125 Pocatello. Beulah. 4. James P. (Jim) Johnson* 129 Fort Collins. 5. William L. Armstrong* 223 Aurora. 1 Elected Apr. 20, 1975, to fill vacancy caused by the death of Jerry L. Pettis, Feb. 14, 1975. ILLINOIS KENTUCKY 1. Ralph H. Metcalfe* Chicago. 2. Morgan F. Murphy* Chicago. 3. Martin A. Russo [Robert P. Hanrahan' Calumet Park. FORD LIBRARY 1. Carroll Hubbard, Jr. [Frank A. Stubble- Mayfield. field 4. Edward J. Derwinski* Flossmoor. 2. William H. Natcher* Bowling Green. 5. John G. Fary' [John C. Kluczynski* 1] Chicago. 3. Romano L. Mazzoli* Louisville. 6. Henry J. Hyde [Harold R. Collier*] Park Ridge 4. Gene Snyder* Brownsboro Farms 7. Cardiss Collins* Chicago. QUANTO 5. Tim Lee Carter* Tompkinsville. 8. Dan Rostenkowski* Chicago. 6. John Breckinridge* Lexington. 9. Sidney R. Yates* Chicago. 7. Carl D. Perkins Hindman. 10. Abner J. Mikvat [Samuel H. Young*] Evanston. 11. Frank Annunzio* Chicago. LOUISIANA 12. Philip M. Crane* Mount Prospect. 13. Robert McClory* Lake Bluff. 1. F. Edward Hébert* New Orleans. 14. John N. Erlenborn* Glen Ellyn. 2. Lindy (Mrs. Hale) Boggs* New Orleans. 15. Tim L. Hall [Leslie C. Arends*] Dwight. 3. David C. Treen* Metairie. 16. John B. Anderson* Rockford. 4. Joe D. Waggonner, Jr.* Plain Dealing. 17. George M. O'Brien* Joliet. 5. Otto E. Passman* Monroe. 18. Robert H. Michel* Peoria. 6. W. Henson Moore [John R. Rarick*] Baton Rouge. 19. Tom Railsback* Moline. 7. John B. Breaux* Crowley. 20. Paul Findley* Pittsfield. 8. Gillis W. Long* Alexandria. 21. Edward R. Madigan* Lincoln. MAINE 22. George E. Shipley* Olncy. 23. Melvin Price East St. Louis. 1. David F. Emery [Peter N. Kyros*] Rockland. 24. Paul Simon [Kenneth J. Gray*] Carbondale. 2. William S. Cohen* Bangor. INDIANA MARYLAND 1. Ray J. Madden* Gary. 2. Floyd J. Fithian [Earl F. Landgrebe*] Lafayette. 1. Robert E. Bauman* Easton. 3. John Brademas* South Bend. 2. Clarence D. Long* Towson. 4. J. Edward Roush* Huntington. 3. Paul S. Sarbanes* Baltimore. 5. Elwood Hillis* Kokomo. 4. Marjorie S. Holt* Severna Park. 6. David W. Evans [William G. Bray*] Indianapolis. 5. Gladys Noon Spellman [Lawrence J. Laurel. 7. John T. Myers* Covington. Hogan*] 8. Philip H. Hayes [Roger H. Zion* Evansville. 6. Goodloe E. Byron* Frederick. 9. Lee H. Hamilton* Columbus. 7. Parren J. Mitchell* Baltimore. 10. Philip R. Sharp [David W. Dennis*] Muncie. 8. Gilbert Gude* Bethesda. 11. Androw Jacobs, Jr.t [William H. Hudnut Indianapolis. III*]. MASSACHUSETTS IOWA 1. Silvio O. Conte* Pittsfield. 1. Edward Mezvinsky* Iowa City. 2. Edward P. Boland* Springfield. 2. Michael T. Blouin [John C. Culver*] Dubuque. 3. Joseph D. Early [Harold D. Donohue*] Worcester. 3. Charles E. Grassley [H. R. Gross* New Hartford. 4. Robert F. Drinan* Newton. 4. Neal Smith* Altoona. 5. Paul E. Tsongas [Paul W. Cronin*] Lowell. 5. Tom Harkin [William J. Scherle*] Ames. 6. Michael Harrington* Beverly. 6. Berkley Bedell [Wiley Mayne* Spirit Lake. 7. Torbert H. Macdonald* Malden. 8. Thomas P. O'Neill, Jr.* Cambridge. KANSAS 9. Joe Moakley* Boston. 1. Keith G. Sebelius* Norton. 10. Margaret M. Heckler* Wellesley. 2. Martha Keys [William R. Roy*] Manhattan. 11. James A. Burko* * Milton. 3. Larry Winn, Jr.* Overland Park. 12. Gerry E. Studds* Cohnsset. 4. Garner E. Shriver* Wichita. 5. Joe Skubits* Pittsburg. 1 Elected July 8, 1975, to an the vacancy caused by the death of John C. Kluczynski, Jan. 26, 1975. MICHIGAN NEBRASKA 1. John Conyers, Jr.* Detroit. 1. Charles Thone* Lincoln. 2. Marvin L. Esch" Ann Arbor. 2. John Y. McCollister* Omaha. 3. Garry Brown* Schoolcraft. 3. Virginia Smith [Dave Martin*] Chappell. 4. Edward Hutchinson* St. Joseph. 5. Richard F. Vander Veen* Grand Rapids. FORD LIBRARY NEVADA 6. Bob Carr [Charles E. Chamberlain* East Lansing. AT LARGE 7. Donald W. Riegle, Jr.* Flint. 8. Bob Traxler* Bay City. Jim Santini [David Towell*] Las Vegas. 9. Guy Vander Jagt* Luther. GENETO NEW HAMPSHIRE 10. Elford A. Cederberg* Midland. 11. Philip E. Ruppe* Houghton. 1. Norman E. D'Amours [Louis C. Wyman*] Manchester. 12. James G. O'Hara* Utica. 2. James C. Cleveland* New London. 13. Charles C. Diggs, Jr.* Detroit. 14. Lucien N. Nedzi* Detroit. NEW JERSEY 15. William D. Ford' Taylor. 16. John D. Dingell* Trenton. 1. James J. Florio [John E. Hunt*] Camden. 17. William M. Brodhead [Martha W. Detroit. 2. William J. Hughes [Charles W. Sandman, Ocean City. Griffiths*] Jr.*]. 18. James J. Blanchard [Robert J. Huber*] Pleasant Ridge. 3. James J. Howard* * Spring Lake 19. Wm. S. Broomfield* Birmingham. Heights. 4. Frank Thompson, Jr.* Trenton. MINNESOTA 5. Millicent Fenwick [Peter H. B. Fre- Bernardsville. 1. Albert H. Quie* Dennison. linghuysen*] 2. Tom Hagedorn [Ancher Nelsen Truman. 6. Edwin B. Forsythe* Moorestown. 3. Bill Frenzel* Golden Valley. 7. Andrew Maguire [William B. Widnall*] Ridgewood. 4. Joseph E. Karth* St. Paul. 8. Robert A. Roe* Wayne. 5. Donald M. Fraser* Minneapolis. 9. Henry Helstoski* E. Rutherford. 6. Richard Nolan [John M. Zwach*] Waite Park. 10. Peter W. Rodino, Jr.* Newark. 7. Bob Bergland* Roseau. 11. Joseph G. Minish* West Orange. 8. James L. Oberstar [John A. Blatnik*] Chisholm. 12. Matthew J. Rinaldo* Union. 13. Helen S. Meyner [Joseph J. Maraziti*] Phillipsburg. MISSISSIPPI 14. Dominick V. Daniels* Union City. 1. Jamie L. Whitten* Charleston. 15. Edward J. Patten* Perth Amboy. 2. David R. Bowen* Cleveland. 3. G. V. (Sonny) Montgomery* Meridian. NEW MEXICO 4. Thad Cochran* Jackson. 1. Manuel Lujan, Jr.* Albuquerque. 5. Trent Lott* Pascagoula. 2. Harold Runnels* Lovington. MISSOURI NEW YORK 1. William (Bill) Clay* St. Louis. 1. Otis G. Pike* Riverhead. 2. James W. Symington* Ladue. St. Louis. 2. Thomas J. Downey [James R. Grover, W. Islip. 3. Leonor K. (Mrs. John B.) Sullivan* Jr.*]. 4. Wm. J. Randall' Independence" 3. Jerome A. Ambro L'Angelo D. Roncallo*] East Northport. 5. Richard Bolling* Kansas City. 4. Norman F. Lent* Baldwin. 6. Jerry Litton' Chillicothe. 5. John W. Wydler* Mineola. 7. Gene Taylor Sarcoxie. 6. Lester L. Wolfi* Great Neck. 8. Richard H. Ichord* Houston. 7. Joseph P. Addabbo* Ozone Park. 9: William L. Hungato* Troy. 8. Benjamin S. Rosenthal* Flushing. 10. Bill D. Burlison* Cape Girardeau. 9. James J. Delaney* Long Island City. 10. Mario Biaggi* Bronx. MONTANA 1. Max Baucus [Dick Shoup*] Missoula. 2. John Melcher* Forsyth. 8 y 11. James H. Scheuert [Frank J. Brasco*] Neponsit. OHIO 12. Shirley Chisholm* Brooklyn. 13. Stephen J. Solarz [Bertram L. Podell*] Brooklyn. 1. Willis D. Gradison, Jr. [Thomas A. Cincinnati. 14. Frederick W. Richmond [John J. Brooklyn. Luken*]. Rooney 2. Donald D. Clancy* Cincinnati. 15. Leo C. Zoferetti [Hugh L. Carey*] Brooklyn. 3. Charles W. Whalen, Jr.* Dayton. 16. Elizabeth Holtzman Brooklyn. Liami 4. Tennyson Guyer* Findlay. 5. Delbert L. Latta* 17. John M. Murphy* Staten Island. 18. Edward I. Koch New York City. FORD Bowling Green. 6. William H. Harsha* Portsmouth. 7. Clarence J. Brown* Urbana. 19. Charles B. Rangel* New York City. 20. Bella S. Abzug* New York City. 8. Thomas N. Kindness [Walter E. Powell*] Hamilton. Bronx. DERALD 9. Thomas L. Ashley* Maumee. 21. Herman Badillo* 10. Clarence E. Miller* Lancaster. 22. Jonathan B. Bingham* Bronx. 11. J. William Stanton* Painesville. 23. Peter A. Peyser* Irvington. 12. Samuel L. Devine* Columbus. 24. Richard L. Ottingert [Ogden R. Reid*] Pleasantville. 13. Charles A. Mosher* Oberlin. 25. Hamilton Fish, Jr.* Millbrook. 26. Benjamin A. Gilman* Middlotown. 14. John F. Seiberling* Akron. Ithaca. 15. Chalmers P. Wylie* Worthington. 27. Matthew F. McHugh [Howard W. Robi- 16. Ralph S. Regula* Navarre. son*]. 17. John M. Ashbrook* Johnstown. 28. Samuel S. Stratton* Amsterdam. 29. Edward W. Pattison [Carleton J. King*]- West San Lake. 18. Wayne L. Hays* Flushing. 30. Robert C. McEwen* Ogdensburg. 19. Charles J. Carney* Youngstown. 20. James V. Stanton Cleveland. 31. Donald J. Mitchell* Herkimer. 21. Louis Stokes* Cleveland. 32. James M. Hanley* Syracuse. 22. Charles A. Vanik* Euclid. 33. William F. Walsh* Syracuse. 34. Frank Horton* Rochester. 23. Ronald M. Mottl [William E. Minshall*] Parma. 35. Barber B. Conable, Jr.* Alexander. OKLAHOMA 36. John J. LaFalce [Henry P. Smith III*] Kenmore. 1. James R. Jones* Tulsa. 37. Henry J. Nowak [Thaddous J. Dulski*] Buffalo. 2. Theodore M. (Ted) Risenhoover [Clem Tahlequah. 38. Jack F. Kemp* Hamburg. Rogers McSpadden*] 39. Stanley N. Lundine' [James F. Hastings* Jamestown. 3. Carl Albert* McAlester. 4. Tom Steed* Shawnee. NORTH CAROLINA 5. John Jarman* Oklahoma City. 1. Walter B. Jones* Farmville. 6. Glenn English [John N. Happy Camp*] Cordell. 2. L. H. Fountain* Tarboro. 3. David N. Henderson* Wallace. OREGON 4. Iko F. Andrews* Siler City. 1. Les AuCoin [Wendell Wyatt*] Forest Grove. 5. Stephen L. Neal [Wilmer (Vinegar Bend) Winston-Salem. 2. Al Ullman* Baker. Mizell*]. 6. Richardson Preyer* Greensboro. 3. Robert Duncan [Edith Green*] Gresham. 7. Charles Rose* Fayetteville. 4. James Weaver [John Dellenback*] Eugene. 8. W. G. (Bill) Hefner [Earl B. Ruth*] Concord. PENNSYLVANIA 9. James G. Martin* Davidson. 10. James T. Broyhill* Lenoir. 1. 1 [William A. Barrett* 11. Roy A. Taylor* Asheville. 2. Robert N. C. Nix Philadelphia. 3. William J. Green Philadelphia. NORTH DAKOTA 4. Joshua Eilberg* Philadelphia. 5. Richard T. Schulze [John Ware*] Malvern. AT LARGE 6. Gus Yatron* Mark Andrews* Mapleton. Reading. 7. Robert W. Edgar [Lawrence G. Williams*] Broomall. 1 Elocted Mar. 2, 1970, to IIII vacancy caused by the resignation of James F. Hastings, Jon. 20, 1976. 8. Edward G. Biester, Jr.* Furlong. "Vacancy cansed by the death of William A. Barrett, Apt. 12, 1976. 9. Bud Shuster* 1110 Everett. 10. Joseph M. McDade* 2202 7. Bill Archer* 1024 Houston. Scranton. 11. Daniel J. Flood* 8. Bob Eckhardt* Houston. Wilkes-Barre. 12. John P. Murtha* 9. Jack Brooks* Beaumont. Johnstown. 13. Laurence Coughlin* 306 10. J. J. Pickle* Austin. Villanova. 14. William S. Moorhead* 11. W. R. Poage* Waco. 15. Fred B. Rooney* Pittsburgh. Bethlehom. FORD LIBRARY 12. Jim Wright* Fort Worth. 16. Edwin D. Eshleman* 2244 13. Jack Hightower [Robert Price*] Vernon. Lancaster. 17. Herman T. Schneebeli* 7336 14. John Young* Corpus Christi. 19. William F. Goodling [George A. Goodling* Jacobus. Pittsburgh 18. H. John Heinz III* 324 Williamsport. 15. E de la Garza* Mission. 16. Richard C. White* * El Paso. 20. Joseph M. Gaydos* OTHERS 17. Omar Burleson* Anson. 21. John H. Dent* McKeesport. 18. Barbara Jordan* Houston. Ligonier. 22. Thomas E. Morgan* 19. George H. Mahon* Lubbock. 23. Albert W. Johnson* 2233 Fredericktown. 20. Henry B. Gonzalez* San Antonio. Smethport. 24. Joseph P. Vigorito* 21. Robert (Bob) Krueger [O. C. Fisher*] New Braunfels. Erie. 25. Gary A. Myers [Frank M. Clark*] 1711 22. Ron Paul [Bob Casey* 1] Lake Jackson. Butler. 23. Abraham Kazen, Jr.* Laredo. RHODE ISLAND 24. Dale Milford* * Grand Prairie. 1. Fernand J. St Germain* Woonsocket. UTAH 2. Edward P. Beard [Robert O. Tiernan*] Cranston. 1. Gunn McKay* Huntsville. SOUTH CAROLINA 2. Allan T. Howe [Wayne Owens*] Salt Lake City. 1. Mendel J. Davis* Charleston. 2. Floyd Spence* 120 VERMONT Lexington. 3. Butler Dorn*]. Derrick [Wm. Jennings Bryan Edgefield. AT LARGE James M. Jeffords [Richard W. Mallary*] 501 Montpelier. 4. James R. Mann* Greenville. 5. Kenneth L. Holland [Tom S. Gettys* Camden. VIRGINIA 6. John W. Jenrette, Jr. [Edward Young*] North Myrtle Beach. 1. Thomas N. Downing* Newport News. 2. G. William Whitehurst* 436 Norfolk. No SOUTH DAKOTA 3. David E. Satterfield III* Richmond. 1. Larry Pressler [Frank E. Denholm* Humboldt. 4. Robert W. Daniel, Jr.* 410 Spring Grove. 2. James Abdnor* 1227 Kennebec. 5. Dan Daniel* Danville. 6. M. Caldwell Butler* 109 Roanoke. TENNESSEE 7. J. Kenneth Robinson* 418 Winchester. 1. James H. (Jimmy) Quillen * 102 2. John J. Duncan* 2458 Kingsport. 8. Herbert E. Harris II [Stanford E. Alexandria. Knoxville. Parris' 3. Marilyn Lloyd [LaMar Baker*] Chattanooga. & William C. Wampler Bristol. 4. Joe L. Evins* Smithville. 10. Joseph L. Fisher [Joel T. Broyhill*] Arlington. 5. Clifford Allen¹ [Richard 124 H. Fulton 1] Nashville. 6. Robin L. Beard* Brentwood. 7. Ed Jones* 1. Joel Pritchard* 133 WASHINGTON Yorkville. Seattle. 8. Harold E. Ford [Dan Kuykendall*] Memphis. 2. Lloyd Meeds* Everett. 3. Don Bonker [Julia Butler Hansen' Ridgefield. TEXAS 4. Mike McCormack* Richland. 1. 5. Thomas S. Foley* Spokane. 2 [Wright Patman' 1] 6. Floyd V. Hicks* Tacoma. 2. Charles Wilson' Lufkin. 3. James M. Collins' 2419 7. Brock Adams* * Seattle. Dallas. 4. Ray Roberts* 5. Alan Sleelman* 437 McKinney. 1 Elected Apr. 3, 1976, to fill vacamey caused by the resignation of Bob Casey, Jan. 22, 1976. Dallas. 6. Olin E. Teague* College Station. 1 2 Elected Nov 25, 1975. to fill vacancy caused by the resignation of Richard П. Fulton, Aug. 14, 1975. Vaconcy caused by the death of Wright Patman, Mor. 7, 1976. 12 WEST VIRGINIA 1. Robert H. Mollohan* Fairmont. 2. Harley O. Staggers* Keyser. 3. John M. Slack* Charleston. 4. Ken Hechler* Huntington. WISCONSIN 1. Les Aspin* Racine. 2. Robert W. Kastenmeier* Sun Prairie. 3. Alvin Baldus [Vernon W. Thomson* Menomonie. 4. Clement J. Zablocki* Milwaukee. 5. Henry S. Reuss* Milwaukee. 6. William A. Steiger* 1025 Oshkosh. 7. David R. Obey* Wausau. 8. Robert J. Cornell [Harold V. Froehlich* DePere. NO 9. Robert W. Kasten, Jr. [Glenn R. Davis Milwaukee. WYOMING AT LARGE Teno Roncalio* Cheyenne. PUERTO RICO RESIDENT COMMISSIONER Jaime Benitez* Cayey. DISTRICT OF COLUMBLA DELEGATE Walter E. Fauntroy* District of Columbia. GUAM DELEGATE Antonio Borja Won Pat* Agana. VIRGIN ISLANDS DELEGATE Ron de Lugo' Christiansted. FORD DERAL LIBRARY President Ford Committee 1828 L STREET, N.W., SUITE 250, WASHINGTON, D.C. 20036 (202) 457-6400 May 10, 1976 Dear Friend: The outstanding accomplishments of President Ford are contained in the enclosed talking paper. I am hopeful that in your campaign appearances you can use this material. With thanks and kindest regards. Sincerely, ROGERS C.B. Rog MORTON Morton Chairman LIBRAST GERALD ? FORD The President Ford Committee, Rogers C.B. Morton, Chairman, Robert C. Moot, Treasurer. A copy of our Report is filed with the Federal Election Commission and is available for purchase from the Federal Election Commission, Washington, D.C. 20463. ADVOCATE TALKING POINTS 1. This is a tough race between a record of Presidential accomplishment and political rhetoric. 2. When the President took office 22 months, ago, the country: a. had lost confidence in government, b. was racked by inflation and unemployment caused by runaway government spending; a liberal Congress elected in 1974 threatened to accelerate this trend, C. had its national will called into question by our allies and our potential adversaries; for ten years, real defense spending had been reduced to finance social programs while the USSR stepped up its defense spending threatening eventual imbalance in the future. 3. The three tasks of the President were to: a. Restore public confidence and integrity in our government. b. Control government spending by the Congress to reverse the rates of inflation and unemployment; encourage growth of private sector instead of government to ensure steady economic progress and real jobs. C. Reverse the trend in our defense spending so that future America can deal with the Soviet threat from a position of strength. BERALD FORD -2- 4. In the President's 22 months in office, he has: a. Restored integrity and respect for government through an open Administration. b. Restored balance in our economy by halting the growth of government spending by the Congress; his restraint has caused inflation to drop by one-half, our GNP to increase by 7.5% this first quarter and 2. 6 million more Americans are now working than before; his skillful use of the veto saved $13 billion in wasteful Congressional programs which would have pumped up the economy for the election year, but thrown us headlong into another recession. c. Proposed and, with your help, Congress has accepted the largest defense budget in peacetime history; this reverses a trend of cuts in our real defense spending for the la st ten years, while the Soviet strength has grown; only by spending what we must on defense can we be sure that future Americans will be strong. 5. Our people once again believe in: a. the integrity of our system of government b. the vitality and prosperity of a growing economy C. remaining strong enough to defend our interests and those of our allies in a hostile world. GERALD FORD AMERICA May 11, 1976 MEMORANDUM FOR: MAX FRIEDERSDORF THROUGH: CHARLES LEPPERT, JR. Czp. FROM: TOM LOEFFLER A.C. SUBJECT: Congressman Bud Brown Bud is most interested in doing whatever is necessary on behalf of the President's campaign, be it limited strictly to providing assistance in his congressional district or traveling throughout Ohio and the rest of the country. FILE May 11, 1976 RESOLUTION WHEREAS President Ford has as President and throughout his public career worked effectively for a strong national defense and a viable and sustainable economy, and WHEREAS he has courageously vetoed legislation thrust upon him by an irresponsible controlling majority of Congress, and WHEREAS this majority has consistently sought to hamstring the President in his conduct of a strong foreign policy, and WHEREAS he has successfully brought us out of a recession and well upon the road to economic recovery through the application of economic principles, which have worked successfully, and WHEREAS he has fully earned through his leadership as President, the support of his party, now therefore be it RESOLVED that the Republican Leaders of the House of Representatives and the Senate hereby express to President Ford their deep appreciation for his wise leadership and pledge their support to him as the nominee of his party at the Republican Convention. Done in the United States Congress this Eleventh day of May, 1976 (Signed) Senator Hugh Scott Senator Robert P. Griffin Senator Carl T. Curtis Senator Robert T. Stafford Senator John Tower Senator Ted Stevens Rep. Bob Michel Rep. John B. Anderson Rep. Jack Edwards Rep. Barber B. Conable, Jr. Rep. Louis Frey, Jr. Rep. Guy Vander Jagt Due to the probability that he will be Permanent Chairman of the Republican National Convention, Congressman John Rhodes feels that he should refrain from declared support of any candidate. ### May 12, 1976 MEMORANDUM FOR: MAX FRIEDERSDORF THROUGH: CHARLES LEPPERT, JR. CLg FROM: TOM LOEFFLER SUBJECT: Congressman Skip Bafalis (R. -Fla.) Today Skip strongly indicated his desire to provide whatever assistance might be necessary in behalf of the President and his campaign. Skip stated that he would "be willing to do anything - -just give me the command." May 17, 1976 MEMORANDUM FOR: MAX FRIEDERSDORF THROUGH: CHARLES LEPPERT, JR. CLg. FROM: TOM LOEFFLER SUBJECT: Rep. Tom Kindness (R. -Ohio) In a recent conversation, the Congressman expressed his strong interest to participate as a spokesman for the President's campaign and specifically the Ohio primary. Tom stated that it was his impression that the President is still ahead of Reagan in the State of Ohio, however, he believes that Reagan has the edge in his congressional district (8th congressional district). Tom also stated that his primary opponent, John D. Brown, is a strong supporter of Reagan. Brown has been attacking Kindness by stating that allegedly Rogers Morton doesn't know Kindness, Kindness doesn't know anyone in Washington, and therefore, Kindness is an ineffective Congressman. Tom would be most appreciative if he might visit with Rog and determine a means whereby the Brown allegations might be overcome. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON June 15, 1976 MEMORANDUM FOR: JIM BAKER PRESIDENT FORD COMMITTEE THRU: MAX L. FRIEDERSDORF FROM: CHARLES LEPPERT, JR. CLg. SUBJECT: James A. Stein James A. Stein has been elected as a delegate to the Republican National Convention from the 12th Congressional District of Pennsylvania. Stein voted present on the resolution to support the President at a meeting in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, on Saturday, June 5, 1976. Stein is a 22 or 23-year-old, first year, graduate student at Indiana University of Pennsylvania in Indiana, Pennsylvania. He is consid- ered a conservative, genuinely undecided and wants to remain so until the Convention. If feasible, I suggest that Jack Ford visit with James Stein. My contacts in Johnstown, Pennsylvania, tell me that this is a good sug- gestion. Stein's address is as follows: James A. Stein 246 South 7th Street Indiana, Pennsylvania. CC: Dick Cheney [June 1976.]F/LE MR. PRESIDENT: I HOPE YOU CAN BEGIN TO REALIZE THE WRENCHING EXPERIENCE THIS DELEGATE BUSINESS HAS BEEN TO ME A YOUNG AMERICAN , NEW IN THE POLITICAL SYSEM. I WAS ELECTED AS AN UNCOMMITTED DELEGATE FROM PENNSYLVANIA AND TRUE TO THAT ROLE I HAD FULLY INTENDED TO ADHERE TO THAT DETERMINATION UNTIL THE ROL! CALL AT THE NATIONAL CONVENTION, AFTER CONSIDERABLE DELIBERATION, WHICH HAS FRANKLY DISTURBED MY COLLEGE EDUCATION, BUT HAS BENEFITED MY REAL WORLD EDUCATION, I HAVE DETERMINED THAT I MUST MAKE MY DECISION PRIOR TO KANSAS CITY FOR THE REPUBLICAN NOMINEE FOR THE HIGHEST OFFICE IN THE LAND. MR. PRESIDENT, I WILL NOT BE BOUGHT OR BULLIED FOR THE BAKE OF POLITICAL EXPEDENCE, I BELIEVE? YOU AND OUR NATION"S PEOPLE ARE OF THAT SAME FIBER. I HEREBY ANNOUNCE MY COMMITMENT TO VOTE FOR YOU AS OUR PARTIES NOMINEE. YOU HAVE BEEN HONEST AND HONORABLE WITH OUR COUNTRY, OUR PARTY, AND ME. YOUR FRIEND, CONGRESSMAN BUD SHUSTER, I AM PROUD TO CALL MY FRIEND. HIS RESPECT AND AFFECTION FOR YOU HAS MUCH TO DO WITH MY DECISION. CONNT ON ME. THE NETWORKS AND WIRE SERVICES WILL CATCH UP LATER. JAM STEIN DELEGATE AND ASK YOU TO JOIN ME. GERRITO FORD LIBRAGE RAYMOND K. PRICE, JR. 3234 PROSPECT STREET, N.V WASHINGTON, D. C. 20007 11 June 1976 To the Editor of the Star: Remember the bad old days of Watergate, and remember how that wily old Massachussetts pol, Majority Leader Tip O'Neill, was limned by Jimmy Breslin as the hero of "How the Good Guys Finally Won?" That, of course, was when the shoe of scandal was on the Republican -- worse, the Nixon -- foot, and Tip was all for relentlessly rooting it out. But now the shoe is rather awkwardly on the other foot, specifically on that of Tip's own House, and even worse, of his own House Democrats. Seems there's a bit of a brouhaha ebout possible misuse of funds NEW Wanderin' Wayne Hays' House Administration Committee. Republican House Leader John Rhodes insists that, to clear up the "black eye on the entire House," inquiry into this should be made by a bipartisan committee, composed of both Republicans (remember them?) and Democrats. Tip prefers the cozy arrangement whereby it's investigated exclusively by the House Democratic Caucus, He bluntly dismisses the Rhodes suggestion as Namaxx "unnecessary," adding, through a spark spokesman: "The Democrats control the House and they will continue to decide how things are done here." Well, at least he's not coy about it. With apologies to Woodrow Wilson, I guess we might call this a policy of open cover-ups, openly arrived at. GERALD MALD R. FORD LIBRAX Washington D.C. 20061 Bipartisan Hays Audit 1 I Is Urged By Rhodes as A.A By Walter Taylor Neill said through a spokes- 1 Washington Star Stail Writer man. House Republican Leader In addition to the highly John J. Rhodes, citing a publicized allegation that a "black eye on the entire congressional clerk was the tant on the House Adminis- Charlie- THE WHITE HOUSE FILE WASHINGTON June 17, 1976 MEMORANDUM FOR THE STAFF OFFICE OF LEGISLATIVE AFFAIRS FROM: MAX L. FRIEDERSDORF m.6. SUBJECT: Presidential Jewelry Terry O'Donnell advises me that we will have to tighten up on the distribution of Presidential jewelry, as the PFC will be, and has been, paying for it through the November election. As money is tight at PFC, the White House has been asked to help keep the costs down on these items. I'll appreciate your assistance in this regard. Also, all requests for these items should be sent through me to Terry O'Donnell. FORD is LIBRARY June 21, 1976 MEMORANDUM FOR: MAX FRIEDERSDORF THROUGH: CHARLES LEPPERT, JR. Lg. FROM: ToM LOEFFLER SUBJECT: Former Congressman James D. "Mike" McKevitt For your information, Mike asked that I inform you that it was his opinion that the President should not sign S. 268, a bill designating the Eagles Nest Wilderness area within portions of the Arapaho and White River National Forests in Colorado. The bill is presently in conference and Mike fears it will reach the White House prior to the Colorado Republican Convention. According to McKevitt, Presidential action prior to the State Convention could prove detrimental to the President. Mike indicated his support for the President and stated that no one had contacted him with respect to the delegate selection in Colorado. He asked that you be given the attached. Attach. FORD is LIBRARY GERALD We Ask This Question of Colorado's Congressional Delegation: "AIL with To Colorado's Congressiona In mid-May we said your actio water user in Denver and its SI Area S500 million over a 40-yK Our estimate was low-muc A recently-completed indep study (done by the engineering Parsons Brinckerhoft Quade Denver) shows that the actual What This Fight Is All The facts are clearly $ following excerpts fre Denver Post editorial "The public nas seen numero legislation jammed through C adequate study and Congress R.-Colo., now is defending ye Johnson is author of a wildern boundaries in the Gore Range Gravity Costs Versus One doesn't have to be an en much cheaper to deliver water rather than pumping it uphill. Apparently this elementary 1 impression on our Colorado CC Congresspersons Pat Schrt Tim Wirth, D-2nd District, are : Senate bill (introduced by Sen D.-Colo.) a so-called "compr still require us to pump the wa The initial cost of this Schro Senate bill: a mere $368 millio What Is Their Motive? owns from the Eagles Nest area. Without water, jobs dry up. We further believe this is an attempt on their part Without water, our Metro Area stagnates. We believe Schroeder-Wirth-Johnson-Haskel want to restrict the inevitable orderly growth of the to make it so expensive that the Water Board Without water, the economy of our entire region Eastern Slope. suffers. simply couldn't afford to deliver the water it lawfully to What they conveniently forget is that: Without water, we have no future. A SPECIAL Let's stop them before it's Committee for Sensible Water Use. THANK YOU! CO-CHAIRMEN: Thanks to the hundreds too late! Count me in. I want to join in the fight Leonard Campbell, Denver: Robert J. Flynn. Arapahoe County: against this raid on our pocketbooks. Mayor James J. Richey, Lakewood: Mayor Anthony E. Richter, Thernton. who responded to our STEERING COMMITTEE May advertisement, Add my name to your committee A. M. Anzick, Denver asking that their names Send me more information Richard Banta. Englewood be added to our Ben Bezoff, Denver Enclosed is my check to the Committee For Sensible Water Use J.C. Coisman, Denver Committee. And an (CFSWU)* to help stop this wasteful Washington spending legislation. Gerald T. Cooney, Denver additional "thank you" Leland M. Coulter, Aurors Name Don DeDecker, Lakewood for the many, many Richard L Gerstberger, Thornton generous contributions State Rep. Carl H. Gustaison. Denver Address -the vast majority State Rep. E. E. (Casey) Hayes, Commerce City Inving Hook Denver received in $2, S5, and (Zip) State Sen. Robert E Johnson, Golden Phone $10 checks to help us Hazen E. Moore, Denver Coupon and checks should be mailed to: John C'Des. Denver in this crucial fight! c. W. Reitier, Lakewood COMMITTEE FOR SENS'BLE WATER USE *(Checks CAR be made out to "OFSWUTH Room 150 Pain Sm/the, Arapañce County Denald Sutten, Denver 201 University Boulevard Denver. Colorado 80206 Ph:(303) 399-3205 Thank you! (The Committee for Sensible Water Use is an independent, henerant nonpartisen, metro area organization dedicated to presenting and determine the water needs of Eastern Slepe residents.) FORD (Published in Rocky Mountain News & Denver Post Thursday, June 17, 1976). July 2, 1976 MEMORANDUM FOR: MAX FRIEDERSDORF THROUGH: CHARLES LEPPERT, JR. ug. FROM: TOM LOEFFLER A.M SUBJECT: Rep. Bill Walsh (R. -N.Y.) Bill asked that you be made aware of the attached letter which has been signed by almost all members of the New York Republican delegation. Bill hoped, to have this letter to all uncommitted New York delegates in the mail yesterday evening. He anticipated signatures on this letter by everyone except Jack Kemp. Attach. cc: Dick Cheney Jim Cannon Jim Fields Pat Rowland next: Ry. John Wydler was instrumental in getting their done in then new John bad 608 delegation Wydlen allo a problem on get noise thet because to talh about. Charlie FORD & 038830 LIBRARY Congress of the United States house of Representatives Mashington, D.C. 20515 July 1, 1976 Dear : We the undersigned Republican Members of the New York Congressional Delegation who must run for re-election this fall, strongly urge you to support President Ford for the Republican nomination. It is quite clear that the Democratic standard bearer will be Jimmy Carter, and in the past month the Democratic Party has displayed an unprecedented unity in consolidating its support behind the former Georgia governor. Already they have begun their preparation for the fall campaign. The essential task facing all Republicans throughout the country is uniting our Party in preparation for the general election in November. Now, not later, is the time for the Republican Party to unite behind the candidate most capable of winning the election in the fall and governing the country for the next four years. President Ford has shown voter strength against Carter in all areas of the country and has proven national record of leadership in both foreign and domestic affairs. In the last twenty-two months President Ford has put together a winning economic policy. Inflation has been cut in half. There are 3.3 million more people at work today than just one year ago. Personal income is at an historical high, and the American economy is growing faster than any other in the Western world. President Ford has shown leader- ship in combatting crime and in initiating major regulatory reform, and his most recent budget has cut the rate of growth in Federal spending in half. Finally, he has directed a realistic foreign policy backed up by a strong and capable national defense. During the primary campaigns despite the heavy demands of his office, President Ford has presented himself to voters in all areas of the country. He was a contender in every primary. He has been a national, not a regional candidate. FORD is LIBRARY GERALD Page 2 July 1, 1976 As a New York Republican, you should be especially aware of the effects of a mere regional candidacy. The 1964 election resulted in the loss of seven Congressional seats for the New York GOP alone. A similar loss could occur this election year and would be catastrophic. Independent surveys have repeatedly shown that in a race against Jimmy Carter, the President is the strongest candidate in every region of the country, including the South and the West. According to the most recent Field poll, President Ford draws even with Carter and has a very strong chance of winning. President Ford has earned the Republican nomination. He has dedicated a lifetime of service to the Party, demonstrated voter strength in all regions and among all voter groups, and most importantly, Gerald Ford has a proven record of excellence and accomplishment as President. He took over this nation at one of the most critical moments in its history. His record since then is outstanding. If given the security of an elected four year term, he has the ability and capacity to lead this nation to new heights of achievement. We urge you to join with us and Republicans all across the country in support of our President. Your support of President Ford today is vital to the success of our Republican Party in the future. Sincerely, BEARD FORD LIBRARY 1976 Conv. 9/8/76 1976 Republican National Convention Thursday, August 19, 1976 REMARKS OF THE HONORABLE RONALD REAGAN Former Governor of the State of California Mr. President, Mrs. Ford, Mr. Vice President, Mr. Vice President-to-be, the distinguished guests here, and you ladies and gentlemen: I am going to say fellow Republicans here, but those who are watching from a distance, all of those millions of Democrats and Independents who I know are looking for a cause around which to rally and which I believe we can give them. Mr. President, before you arrived tonight, these wonderful people here when we came in gave Nancy and myself a welcome. That, plus this, and plus your kindness and generosity in honoring us by bringing us down here will give us a memory that will live in our hearts forever. Watching on television these last few nights, and I have seen you also with the warmth that you greeted Nancy, and you also filled my heart with joy when you did that. May I just say some words. There are cynics who say that a party platform is something that no one bothers to read and it doesn't very often amount to much. Whether it is different this time than it has ever been before, I believe the Republican Party has a platform that is a banner of bold, unmistakable colors, with no pale pastel shades. We have just heard a call to arms based on that platform, and a call to us to really be successful in communicating and reveal to the American people the dif- ference between this platform and the platform of the opposing party, which is nothing but a revamp and a reissue and a running of a late, late show of the thing that we have been hearing from them for the last 40 years. If I could just take a moment; I had an assignment the other day. Someone asked me to write a letter for the time capsule that is going to be opened in Los Angeles a hundred years from now, on the Tricentennial. It sounded like an easy assignment. They suggested I write something about the problems and issues of the day. I set out to do so, riding down the Coast in an automobile, looking at the blue Pacific out on one side and the Santa Ana Mountains on the other, and I couldn't help but wonder if it was going to be that beautiful a hundred years from now as it was on that summer day. Then as I tried to write -- let your own mind turn to that task. You are going to write for people a hundred years from now, who know all about us. We know nothing about them. We don't know what kind of a world they will be living in. And suddenly I thought to myself if I write of the problems, they will be the domestic problems which the President spoke of here tonight; the challenges con- fronting us, the erosion of freedom that has taken place under Democrat rule in this country, the invasion of private rights, the controls and restrictions on the vitality of the great free economy that we enjoy. These are our challenges that we must meet. FORD (OVER) - 2 - And then again there is that challenge of which he spoke that we live in a world in which the great powers have poised and aimed at each other horrible missiles of destruction, nuclear weapons, that can in a matter of minutes arrive at each other's country and destroy, virtually, the civilized world we live in. And suddenly it dawned on me, those who would read this letter a hundred years from now will know whether those missiles were fired. They will know whether we met our challenge. Whether they have the freedoms that we have known up until now will depend on what we do here. Will they look back with appreciation and say, "Thank God for those people in 1976 who headed off that loss of freedom, who kept us now 100 years later free, who kept our world from nuclear destruction"? And if we failed, they probably won't get to read the letter at all because it spoke of individual freedom, and they won't be allowed to talk of that or read of it. This is our challenge; and this is why here in this hall tonight, better than we have ever done before, we have got to quit talking to each other and about each other and go out and communicate to the world that we may be fewer in numbers than we have ever been, but we carry the message they are waiting for. We must go forth from here united, determined that what a great general said a few years ago is true: There is no substitute for victory. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON August 23, 1976 MEMORANDUM FOR: DICK CHENEY THRU: JACK MARSH MAX FRIEDERSDORF FROM: CHARLES LEPPERT, JR. CAR. SUBJECT: '76 Campaign Attached for your information is some '76 campaign material for review. FOOD LIBRARY Carter Talks About STATE Religion, Catholics And His Campaign Following is Part One of an interview (D-Mo.). He would come into that catego- with the Democratic presidential nomin- ry. Were you attempting to learn about ee, former Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter, life in St. Louis, for example, from Sen. conducted by NC's federal reporter, Jim Eagleton? Castelli, on Aug. 9. It was Carter's first Interview with the religious press since be MR. CARTER: Yes. that was one of the THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON August 23, 1976 MEMORANDUM FOR: MAX FRIEDERSDORF chip FROM: CHARLES LEPPERT, JR. SUBJECT: Comments by Members of Congress on GOP Ticket and Convention Tom Railsback (R. - Ill.) -- The President was great. On Dole, he likes him personally but questions what he adds to the ticket outside the Midwest. Feels that the cam- paign will be an uphill fight, but the President can win it. Al Cederberg (R. - Mich.) -- Thinks it's a good ticket; good convention. No problems with the ticket that came out of that convention. Phillip Burton (D. - Calif.) -- Dole is weak and doesn't add anything to the ticket in California, the Northeast, or the South. Don Clausen (R. - Calif.) -- Convention was OK but the convention should have been opened up. His preference would have been a Ford-Reagan ticket. Pete McCloskey (R. - Calif.) -- States it's a great ticket which will do well in California with a hard-hitting cam- paign. Thinks the choice for Vice President was a great choice. Jim Blanchard (D. - Mich.) -- Feels that the President will have no big problem in carrying Michigan because it's his home state, but Blanchard has conducted a poll in his Congressional district which says Carter will win his district. Feels that Dole doesn't add anything to the ticket. Makes it easier for a lot of freshmen Democrats to run. Bill Cohen (R. - Maine) -- The ticket isn't going to matter in his area. The people there will either vote for Ford or Carter, so he doesn't think that the Dole vice presidential choice is that important. Bill Crosby (staff) -- Good ticket. Dole was a complete surprise. Helen Newman (staff) -- Felt it was a great, exciting convention. The best man won. Thinks Dole is a good choice for Vice President, and the TV coverage of the Ford floor managers was excellent and showed them in control of the situation. Joel Jankowski (staff) -- States that viewing Dole as President in the event something happens to Ford is frightening. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON August 23, 1976 MEMORANDUM FOR: MAX FRIEDERSDORF THROUGH: CHARLES LEPPERT, JR. FROM: TOM LOEFFLER T.L. SUBJECT: Congressional Reaction to the Ford-Dole Ticket Rep. Joe Waggonner (D.-La.) Highly commended the President's delivery of his acceptance speech. Believes Senator Dole is a greater asset to the President than Senator Baker could have been. In his opinion the President has only a slim chance of carrying Texas--but on the other hand, very strongly urges the President not to write-off Louisiana. With hard work Joe feels the Ford-Dole ticket can carry Louisiana. Thinks the President must be very strong and well prepared for the anticipated debates with Carter. Rep. Bill Archer (R.-Texas) Pleased with the Ford-Dole ticket. FORD is groupe LIBRARY Rep. Jimmy Quillen (R.-Tenn.) Believes the Ford-Dole ticket "will fly". However, wonders why Senator Baker was not chosen. Rep. Gene Snyder (R.-Ky. Feels that there is unity within the Republican party. Although Senator Dole is presently not well known in Kentucky, believes the Ford-Dole ticket can win in Kentucky. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON August 24, 1976 MEMORANDUM FOR: MAX FRIEDERSDORF FROM: CHARLES LEPPERT, JR. CLy. SUBJECT: Comments on GOP Convention and Ticket Spence Matthews of Rep. Bill Chappell's office (D. - Fla.) called to offer his comments on the GOP Convention. Matthews states that the President's acceptance speech was excellent and very well received. His reaction to the Convention generally was with mixed emotions and feels that the GOP has a big healing job to do following the Ford-Reagan contest. Matthews states that both the Democratic and Republican conventions led him to the conclusion that there is no way that a person already on the Washington, D. C., scene can win the election in November and cites the lack of the Washington connection as the reason Carter and Reagan have done so well in their respective conventions. Matthews says Carter doesn't do a thing for him and "the Ford people should really zero in on Carter's performance as Governor of Georgia." FORD LIBRARY THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON August 25, 1976 MEMORANDUM FOR: BOB HARTMANN THRU: JACK MARSH MAX FRIEDERSDORF FROM: CHARLES LEPPERT, JR. SUBJECT: , 76 Campaign Joe Bartlett asked me to inform you that a number of Congressmen from southern states have expressed to him their agreement with the Ford-Dole ticket and their strong, passionate opposition to the Carter-Mondale ticket. Joe stated that some of these Members stated that they could not live with the Carter-Mondale ticket. Joe felt that somebody in the Ford-Dole campaign organization should touch base with such Members. FORD Stuckey LIBRARY Sikes Mathis asks the AUG 26, 1976 Carter's Carter's FILE Continued from Page 1 'pardon' wipe out whatever advantage the Carter-Mondale ticket might have may hurt given da. Democratic candidates in Flori- BY JAMES FREE "Florida has the biggest electoral News Washington correspondent vote in the Southeast, and Carter will there." have real problems if he does not win Is Jimmy Carter a bit too cocky about carrying the South? 2 It will be recalled that Carter, who Some Alabama congressmen and put less emphasis on a strong national their neighbors are wondering. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON August 26, 1976 MEMORANDUM FOR: DICK CHENEY THRU: JACK MARSH MAX FRIEDERSDORF FROM: CHARLES LEPPERT, JR. Caf. SUBJECT: Abortion Issue Attached is one of the Catholic newsletters sent to me concerning the Ford-Dole ticket and the abortion issue. I thought this newsletter would be of interest to the campaign issues people. FORD i 078870 LIBRARY LIFELETTER™ 12 © 1976 by The Ad Hoc Committee in Defense of Life, Inc. August 23, 1976 FORD-DOLE TICKET NET PLUS FOR ANTI-ABORTION FORCES * REAGAN RESPONSIBLE FOR 'ACCEPTABLE' PLATFORM PLANK * CARTER'S ON-THE-RECORD POSITION ON ABORTION * FORD MISSES BIG CHANCE AT EUCHARISTIC CONGRESS * HOUSE HOLDS FIRM ON HYDE AMENDMENT BANNING FEDERAL ABORTION FUNDS BY THE TIME RONALD REAGAN WENT DOWN TO BITTER-END DEFEAT in Kansas City last week, he had become the overwhelming choice of virtually the entire anti-abortion movement. He left no heir, and movement leaders are sharply divided on what is the best strategy between now and November (concentrate on the congressional elections? try to get a still-reluc- tant Ford -- see below -- to take a strong stand?). Ford's choice of Sen. Bob Dole as his running mate could go a long way towards getting him the anti-abortion vote: Dole has been good-to-excellent on the issue (Dole's opponent in his '74 reelection fight said publicly that abortion had been the decisive issue in a very close race), and may well be Ford's "designated hitter" on abortion (while the President maintains his "moderate" stance). At least one thing is clear: the Republicans know and care about the anti-abor- tion vote, while Carter's "born again" Democrats do not. But the long struggle that began in Iowa last January has from the start been a mixed win-one, lose-one bag from the anti-abortion viewpoint. Then, abortion was not a nation- al issue: Jimmy Carter made it that -- and got his own head start -- by telling a "pro- life" (and heavily Catholic) audience that (as reported by Evans & Novak) he would sup- port an anti-abortion constitutional amendment "under certain circumstances." (For Car- ter's on-the-record position when he said that, see below.) Carter's subsequent march to victory, which ended up making the Democratic Party officially pro-abortion, also knocked WHERE DOES CARTER STAND? In 1972 a book titled "Women in Need" was published (by The Macmillan Co.). The authors were James Trussell, Jr. (described as having "directed three family planning organizations and served on the boards of two others") and Robert A. Hatcher, M.D. ("one of the most respected men in the family planning field serves on the national board of Planned Parenthood"). The cover blurbs advertised the book as answering such weighty questions as "Sterilization: Is it the only sure preventative?" and (this was before the Court legalized abortion nationwide) "When and Where abortion can be safely and legally performed." The Forward tells us that the book makes "a series of suggestions for the reader who wants to accept a more active role in making sex educa- tion, contraceptives, abortion (emphasis added -- Ed.) and sterilization more freely available in our society. This book makes a plea to our citizens ... I join them in mak- ing this plea to the American public." It is signed "Jimmy Carter, Governor of Georgia." out a host of pro-abortion and "I'm personally opposed but" Dems -- and kept the abortion issue at boiling point throughout (culminating in a prime-time TV blast at both Carter and his platform via the nominating speech for Ellen McCormack at the Dem convention). Meanwhile, Reagan's hard-fought battle resulted in a Republican platform plank which -- while too weak for many -- sharply separates the parties. Net result: abortion will un- questionably be a major issue -- national and local -- in the campaign ahead, and seems FORD certain to be the moral issue facing Americans in the years to come -- an enormous ad, vance nobody would have dared to predict. GERALD THE REPUBLICAN ANTI-ABORTION PLANK must be counted a major victory. It sailed easily through the platform committee (13-1) and was confirmed (over petulant but weak opposi- tion) by voice vote in the wee hours of Wednesday morning. Why? Because a) Ford's peo- ple were giving Reagan's just about anything they wanted in the platform and b) the "wom- (over, please)