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Market Opinion Research (2)
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18514932
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Market Opinion Research (2)
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James M. Cannon Files (Ford Administration)
James Cannon's Political Files
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Presidential campaign, 1976
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The original documents are located in Box 41, folder "Market Opinion Research (2)" of the
James M. Cannon Files at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library.
Copyright Notice
The copyright law of the United States (Title 17, United States Code) governs the making of
photocopies or other reproductions of copyrighted material. Gerald Ford donated to the United
States of America his copyrights in all of his unpublished writings in National Archives collections.
Works prepared by U.S. Government employees as part of their official duties are in the public
domain. The copyrights to materials written by other individuals or organizations are presumed to
remain with them. If you think any of the information displayed in the PDF is subject to a valid
copyright claim, please contact the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library.
Digitized from Box 41 of the James M. Cannon Files at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library
November 12, 1975
TO:
JIM CANNON
FROM:
JERRY H. JONES
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
U.S. NATIONAL STUDY
Draft Questionnaire
November 10, 1975
Hello, I'm
from Market Opinion Research Company,
an international research company with headquarters in iDetroit. We are
making a study of problems and political figures in the United States
and would like to have your opinions.
1. Now, I'd like you to think about you
and your family's plans for the future.
What are your main goals and hopes you
and your family are trying to work
toward and fulfill? (PROBE)
a. Do you believe this is a goal that the
Should
1
government should or should not help you
Should not
2
to attain?
Don't know
0
b. Are the government's actions helping you
Helping
1
or hindering you in achieving this goal,
Hindering
2
or not making any difference?
No difference
3
Don't know
0
2. Some people think that certain groups
have too much influence in American
life and politics, while other people
feel that certain groups don't have
as much influence as they deserve.
Are there any groups or kinds of people
which you think have too much influence
and are getting more than their fair
share? (PROBE)
3. Are there any groups which you think
don't have as much influence as they
deserve and are receiving less than
their fair share? (PROBE) (IF
RESPONDENT SAYS PEOPLE LIKE ME, ASK:)
How would you describe yourself?
4. Some people think that certain groups have too much influence in
American life and politics, while other people feelithat certain
groups don't have as much influence as they deserve. On this
card (HAND CARD) are three statements about how much influence
a group might have. For each group I read to you, just tell me
the number of the statement that best says how you feel. The
first group is
. (ROTATE ITEMS)
Just About
The Right
Too
Too Much
Amount of
Little
Don't
Influence
Influence
Influence
Know
a.
Labor Unions
1
2
3
0
b. Workingmen
1
2
3
0
C. Businessmen
1
2
3
0
d. Blacks
1
2
3
0
e.
Liberals
1
2
3
0
f.
Young People
1
2
3
0
g. Women
1
2
3
0
h. Television
Commentators
1
2
3
0
i. Republicans
1
2
3
0
j. People on Welfare
1
2
3
0
k.
Democrats
1
2
3
0
1.
Middle-class People
1
2
3
0
m.
People like me
1
2
3
0
5. Now I'm going to mention several institutions in our society and as I mention each
one, I'd like you to tell me how satisfied you are with its performance - very
satisfied, satisfied, neither satisfied nor dissatisfied, dissatisfied, very dis-
satisfied, don't know. (HAND SATIFACTION CARD). (ROTATE LIST)
Neither
Satisfied
Very
Very
Nor
Dis-
Dis-
Don't
Satisfied
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
satisfied.
satisfied
Know
a. major companies
1
2
3
4
5
0
b. organized religion
1
2
3
4
5
0
C. the President
1
2
3
4
5
0
d. organized labor
1
2
3
4
5
0
e. Congress
1
2
3
4
5
0
f. State government
1
2
3
4
5
0
g. school systems
1
2
3
4
5
0
h. press/media
1
2
3
4
5
0
i. political parties
1
2
3
4
5
0
j. Supreme court
1
2
3
4
5
0
k. local government
1
2
3
4
5
0
6. What do you think are the two or three most important problems facing
the U.S. as a nation at this time? (RECORD BELOW IN SPACES PROVIDED)
a. (FOR EACH PROBLEM IN Q. 1 ASK:) What would you like to see done about
this problem? (RECORD BELOW FOR EACH PROBLEM)
b. (FOR EACH PROBLEM IN Q. 1 ASK:) Now, what do you feel might be the role
of the federal government in helping to solve this problem -- a major
role, a minor role, or almost no role in helping to solve that problem?
(RECORD BELOW FOR EACH PROBLEM)
Q. 1 Problem
la. Solution
lb. Federal
Government Role
#1
Major role
1
Minor role
2
Almost none
3
Don't know
0
C. How much confidence do you have
A great deal
1
that President Ford can help to
Only some
2
solve this problem -- a great
Hardly any
3
deal of confidence, only some
Don't know
0
confidence, or hardly any
confidence at all?
d. How much confidence do you have
A great deal
1
that Congress can help to
Only some
2
solve this problem -- a great
Hardly any
3
deal of confidence, only some
Don't know
0
confidence, or hardly any
confidence at all?
6. What do you think are the two or three most important problems facing
the U.S. as a nation at this time? (RECORD BELOW IN SPACES PROVIDED)
a. (FOR EACH PROBLEM IN Q. 2 ASK:) What would you like to see done about
this problem? (RECORD BELOW FOR EACH PROBLEM)
b. (FOR EACH PROBLEM IN Q. 2 ASK:) Now, what do you feel might be the role
of the federal government in helping to solve this problem -- a major
role, a minor role, or almost no role in helping to solve that problem?
(RECORD BELOW FOR EACH PROBLEM)
Q. 2 Problem
2a. Solution
2h. Federal
Government Role
#2
Major role
1
Minor role
2
Almost none
3
Don't know
0
C. How much confidence do you have
A great deal
1
that President Ford can help to
Only some
2
solve this problem -- a great
Hardly any
3
deal of confidence, only some
Don't know
0
confidence, or hardly any
confidence at all?
d. How much confidence do you have
A great deal
1
that Congress can help to
Only some
is
2
solve this problem -- a great
Hardly any
3
deal of confidence, only some
Don't know
0
confidence, or hardly any
confidence at all?
6. What do you think are the two or three most important problems facing
the U.S. as a nation at this time? (RECORD BELOW INI SPACES PROVIDED)
a. (FOR EACH PROBLEM IN Q. 1 ASK:) What would you like to see done about
this problem? (RECORD BELOW FOR EACH PROBLEM)
b. (FOR EACH PROBLEM IN Q. 1 ASK:) Now, what do you feel might be the role
of the federal government in helping to solve this problem -- a major
role, a minor role, or almost no role in helping to solve that problem?
(RECORD BELOW FOR EACH PROBLEM)
Q. 1 Problem
la. Solution
lb. Federal
Government Role
#1
Major role
1
Minor role
2
Almost none
3
Don't know
0
C. How much confidence do you have
A great deal
1
that President Ford can help to
Only some
2
solve this problem -- a great
Hardly any
3
deal of confidence, only some
Don't know
0
confidence, or hardly any
confidence at all?
d. How much confidence do you have
A great deal
1
that Congress can help to
Only some
2
solve this problem -- a great
Hardly any
3
deal of confidence, only some
Don't know
0
confidence, or hardly any
confidence at all?
7. Overall, do you think the quality of
Better
1
life in the United States is better,
Worse
2
worse, or about the same as it was
About the same
3
a year or two ago?
Don't know
0
8. I would like to hand you a group of cards. On each card is a problem
or issue facing the country. I would like you to hand me the card
with the issue that most concerns you, then hand me the card with the
problem that is second most important to you, and continue handing
me the cards in order of their importance until you have handed me
all of the cards. (HAND ISSUE CARDS AND BE SURE TO SHUFFLE. CIRCLE
NUMBER INDICATING ORDER THEY ARE HANDED BACK TO YOU -- -- 1,2,3, etc.)
RANK ORDER
Inflation/Cost
of living
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Unemployment
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Crime/Drug Abuse
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Government spending
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Education
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Taxes
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Keeping the U.S.
out of war
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Energy
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Maintaining good.
relations with
other countries
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Government getting
too big
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
8A IF GAVE INFLATION FIRST ASK:
a. Which rising prices or costs
Food
1
concern you the most?
Medical
2
(PROBE FOR MULTIPLE RESPONSES)
Housing
3
Clothing
4
Rent
5
Loans/Interest
6
Utilities
7
Gasoline
8
Transportation
9
Other
1
(SPECIFY TO LEFT)
Everything
2
Don't know
0
b. (FOR EACH SPECIFIC PRICE/COST MENTIONED
ABOVE, ASK:) Who or what do you think
is most to blame for
prices
Issue Name Unions
1
being too high? (ASK AS OPEN-END)
Federal gov't
2
The President
3
WRITE AND UNDERLINE EACH PRICE/COST
Business
4
FOLLOWED BY WHO OR WHAT RESPONDENT
Congress
5
BLAMES.
Other
6
(SPECIFY) (TAB)
Issue Name
Unions
1
Federal gov't.
2
The President
3
Business
4
Congress
5
Other
6
(SPECIFY) (TAB)
C. (FOR EACH SPECIFIC PRICE/COST MENTIONED
First
Second
Third
IN b, ASK:) Do you think there is any-
thing the federal government could do
that could help hold down
prices?
Yes
1
1
1
No
2
2
2
Don't know .0
0
0
d. What? (WRITE AND UNDERLINE EACH PRICE/
COST FOLLOWED BY WHAT RESPONDENT THINKS
COULD BE DONE)
e. I'm going to read you six things other people have told us have caused
inflation. As I mention each one I would like you to tell me if you
think it has or has not been an important cause of inflation.
f.
Which one do you think has been the most important cause? (HAND CARD)
Has
Don t
Most
Has
Not
Know
Important
#1
Mistakes and noor planning
by the Ford administration.
1
2
0
1
#2
Overspending by the U.S.
Congress.
1
2
0
2
#3
The desire on the part of big
business for large profits.
1
2
0
3
#4
The power of organized labor to
get unreasonable wage increases.
1
2
0
4
#5
Worldwide demands for goods
rising faster than the ability
to meet them.
1
2
0
5
#6
The increase of oil prices by
Arab oil producing countries.
1
2
0
6
#7
Careless spending by people for
unnecessary items.
1
2
0
7
8B. IF GAVE UNEMPLOYMENT FIRST ASK:
#1. Why do you think unemployment is the
most important problem? (PROBE)
#2. Are you or your spouse currently
Yes
1
unemployed?
No
(GO TO a)
.2
a. (IF NO ASK:) Have you or your spouse
Yes
1
been unemployed during the past year?
No
(GO TO b)
.2
b. (IF NO ASK:) During the past year has
Yes
1
there been any time that you felt either
No
2
you or your spouse were in serious danger
of being laid-off?
9. If you had to choose, would you rather see
a. The rate of unemployment reduced even if it meant allowing
prices to rise further, or
b. Would you rather see prices kept from going up even if it
meant allowing an increase in the number of unemployed?
c slows in unamplyment Unemployment prices preferred reduced/High
1
SLOWER REDUCTION IN UNEMPLOYMENT
Lowered prices/Increased
unemployment
preferred
2
Don't know
0
10. Thinking about the recession we've been in
Will continue to
the past several months, do you think the
improve
1
economy is now improving and will continue
Will get worse
to improve over the next few months, or do
before better
2
you think things will get worse before they
Don't know
0
get better?
11. Some people say that the federal government should be required to operate
on a balanced budget every year. Others say that the government should
be able to borrow and operate at a deficit in some years.
Balanced budget
Deficit budget
every year
some years
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
a. Where would you place yourself on this scale, or haven't you
thought much about this?
0.
Don't know
8.
Haven't thought about it
(GO TO Q. 12)
b. (Where would you place) Congress?
0
Don't know
C. (Where would you place) President Ford?
0
Don't know
12. From what you have read or heard, what has President
Ford proposed to speed-up our economic recovery?
13. President Ford has proposed that taxes
Approve.
1
be cut by 28 billion dollars, but that
Disapprove
2
this tax cut be accompanied by cutting
Don't know
0
federal government spending by 28 billion
dollars. Do you approve or disapprove of
this proposal?
14. From what you have read or heard, would
To individuals
1
most of the tax cuts President Ford has
To businesses
2
proposed go to individuals or to businesses?
Don't know
0
15. From what you have read, seen or heard, if
$0-50
1
President Ford's proposal is passed, about
$50-100
2
how much would your taxes be cut?
$100-250
3
$250-500
4
$500-1,000
5
Don't know
0
16. President Ford has said that the tax cut must
Agree with President
1
be tied to an equal cut in spending. Several
Agree with Democratic
Democratic leaders of Congress, Including
Congressional leaders
2
Senators Kennedy and Humphrey, have said we
Don't know
0
should cut taxes but that this cut cannot be
tied to an equal cut in spending because many
important programs would be endangered. Do you
agree with the President or the Democratic
Congressional leaders?
17. Suppose Congress passed a tax cut bill but
Should.
1
didn't cut government spending. Do you think
Should not
2
President Ford should or should not sign the
Don't know
0
bill?
18. Most people we have talked to think government
spending should be cut. In what areas do you
think government spending should be cut?
19. Here's a list of the major areas where the federal government spends money
and of each $1,000 in tax money, how much is being spent in each area. If you
had to cut $100 from this list, how much and from where would you cut to get
the $100? (HAND CARD - WRITE AMOUNTS BELOW)
National defense ($315)
Aid to education ($25)
Space program ($20)
Foreign aid ($20)
Aid to veterans ($20)
Law enforcement ($10)
Transportation ($20)
Environment Protection ($30)
Subsidy to farmers ($10)
Job training ($20)
Health care ($80)
Revenue sharing ($20)
Unemployment/Social
Housing/Community
Security ($390)
Development ($20)
0. Now, I'd like to mention several areas the government is involved in
and as I mention each one, I'd like you to rate how good a job you
think is being done in that area - very good, fairly good, br not
very good?
a. Now, I'd like to go through this list once more and tell me if you
would be willing or not willing to have your taxes raised slightly
if the money were used for each area?
ASK 20a
Not
Fairly
Very
Don't
Not
Don't
Good
Good
Good
Know
Willing
Willing
Know
a. Reducing air
and water
pollution
1
2
3
0
1
2
0
b. Providing
quality ed-
ucation
1
2
3
0
1
2
0
C. Providing ade-
quate police
protection
1
2
3
0
1
2
0
d. Maintain a
strong nat-
ional defense
1
2
3
0
1
2
0
e. Helping poor
people get
adequate food
and housing
1
2
3
0
1
2
0
f. Providing econ-
omic and mil-
itary aid to our
allies
1
2
3
0
1
2
0
g. Providing ade-
quate health
care
1
2
3
0
1
2
0
h. Providing needed
assistance for
the elderly
1
2
3
0
1
2
0
i. Improve trans-
portation sys-
tems
1
2
1
3
0
1
2
0
21. Now I'd like to mention a few of these problems and have you tell me
whether you think the federal government, your state government, your
local government, or a private group in your area should have the major
role in solving the problem. (ROTATE ITEMS)
Federal
State
Local
Don't
gov't.
gov't
gov't
know
a. Providing better housing
1
2
3
0
b. Providing health care
1
2
3
0
C. Improving transportation
1
2
3
0
d. Providing quality education
1
2
3
0
e. Help poor, people get adequate
food and housing
1
2
3
0
f. Providing needed assistance for
the elderly
1
2
3
0
22. Do you think that the federal tax money
Should be grants for
that is returned to local governments
special programs
1
should be in the form of grants for
Should be returned as
special projects and programs, or that
revenue sharing for
it should be returned as revenue sharing
local gov't to decide
2
money for the local government to decide
Don't know
0
how to spend?
23. Do you think that the revenue sharing money
Has
1
your local government has received during
Has not.
2
the past few years has or has not helped to
Don't know
0
keep your property taxes down?
24. Do you think government assistance to the
Direct cash payments
1
poor should be in the form of direct cash
Special programs
2
payments or special programs such as food
Don't know
0
stamps, free hot lunches, payments for
medical services?
25
Currently, people continue to receive
Should
1
unemployment compensation until they
Should not
2
find a job like the one they held
Don't know
0
previously. If after 60 days, they
have not found a similar job, do you
think they should or should not be
required to take any job that is
available?
FORD is LIBRARY GERALD
26. How long do you think a person who has
3 months
1
lost his/her job should receive federally
6 months
2
financed unemployment compensation -
9 months
3
3 months, 6 months, 9 months, 1 year, or
1 year
4
until he/she gets a job?
Until gets job
5
Don't know
0
27. Suppose prices are rising faster than
Keep up with inflation
1
wages and salaries. Should people on
Smaller increase
2
social security receive an increase to
Don't know
0
keep-up with rising prices or a smaller
increase so they advance at the same rate
as employed people?
28. Thinking about your own community, at
$0-3,000 ($250 a month)
1
what income level on this card do you
$4,000.
( $333 a month)
2
think a family of 4 would need some
$5,000. ( $415 a month)
3
government assistance to get along?
$6,000. ( $500 a month)
4
(HAND CARD)
$7,000. ( $583 a month)
5
$8,000. ($666 a month)
6
$9,000. ($750 a month)
7
$10,000 ($833 a month)
8
Over $11,000 ($916 a month)
9
Don't know
0
29. Do you think the federal government
Should
1
should or should not provide cash
Should not
2
assistance, food stamps, and other
Don't know
0
assistance to a family if their
income totals more than the official
poverty level - about $100 weekly
for a family of four?
30. Do you believe the federal government
Should
1
should or should not provide school
Should not
2
lunches for children of families above
Don't know
0
the official poverty level?
31. Do you think the federal government
Should.
1
should or should not help New York
Should not
2
City out of its current financial
Don't know
0
difficulties?
32. Thinking about our economic system again, some people have told us that they
think we need more government control of business to protect the consumer.
Others think that too much government control is part of the problem and that
less government control and freer competition would benefit the consumer.
Less gov't
More gov't
control-freer
control needed
competition
2
3
4
5
6
7
a. Where would you place yourself on this scale, or haven't you
thought much about this?
0.
Don't know
8
.
Haven't thought about it
(GO TO Q. 33)
b. (Where would you place) Congress?
0
Don't know
C. (Where would you place) President Ford?
0.
Don't know
33. Do you think the energy crisis is
Energy crisis serious
honestly a very serious problem or
problem.
1
that its seriousness has been over-
Energy crisis
stated by politicans and oil companies?
overstated
2
Don't know.
0
34. Which of the following factors concern
Possibility of
you the most about the energy problem?
shortages
1
(READ LIST ON SIDE)
High prices
2
Dependence on foreign
countries
3
Don't know
0
35. From what you have read, seen or heard, what
do you think President Ford's plan is to help
solve the energy problem?
36. Would you be willing or not willing
Willing
1
to pay more for gas and oil if it
Not willing
2
helped the United States achieve
It depends (VOLUNTEERED) .3
energy independence?
Don't know
0
a. Would you be willing or not willing
Willing
1
to pay ten cents more a gallon for
Not willing
2
gas and oil if it helped the United
Don't know
0
States achieve energy independence?
37. President Ford has proposed that we remove
Agree
1
controls on the price of crude oil and
Disagree
2
natural gas over a period of several months,
Don't know
0
and while this would raise prices slightly
in the short term, it would provide incen-
tives to develop new sources of energy and
therefore hold prices down in the long run
and make us independent of foreign sources.
Do you agree or disagree with this proposal?
38. There are trade-offs between eliminating pollution and higher costs. I'd
like to mention several increased costs and have you tell me if you'd be
willing or not willing to pay these increased costs if it would reduce
pollution.
Not
Don't
Willing
Willing
Know
a. Have average price of new
cars go up $300
1
2
0
b. Increase in your electric
bill of 20%
1
2
0
C. (Increase in your electric
bill) of 50%
1
2
0
d. (Increase in your electric
bill) of 100%
1
2
0
39. There is much concern about the rapid rise in medical and hospital
costs. Some feel there should be a government insurance plan which
would cover all medical and hospital expenses, Others feel that
medical expenses should be paid by individuals, and through private
insurance like Blue Cross.
Private
Government
Insurance Plan
Insurance Plans
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
(INTERVIEWER: WRITE IN NUMBER)
a. Where would you place yourself on this scale or haven't you
thought much about this?
0
Don't know
8
Haven't thought about
(GO TO Q. c)
b. (Where would you place) President Ford?
0
Don't know
C. (Where would you place) Congress?
0
Don't know
IF FAVOR GOVERNMENT INSURANCE PLAN IN Q. 39 ASK:
#1 Do you think a government health insurance
Cover all citizens
plan should cover all citizens for all
for all medical care
1
medical care or that it should cover only
Only those who can't
those who can't afford private health
afford private and have
insurance and have catastrophic illnesses?
catastrophic illness
.2
Don't know.
0
#2 If a government health insurance plan was
Increase taxes
1
enacted, do you think it should be paid for
Individuals pay
by increasing taxes or by individuals pay-
premiums
2
ing insurance premiums to the government
Don't know.
0
to cover the cost of the program?
it
40. Generally, do you believe you would receive
Better under private
better health care under a private health
plan
1
insurance plan, a government plan, or that
Government plan
2
it wouldn't make any difference?
No difference
3
Don't know
0
41. Some people think that the best way to cut down crime is to have stricter
law enforcement and to have mandatory sentences for those convicted of
crime, while others think the emphasis should primarily be on eliminating
poverty and other conditions that cause crime and work on rehabilitating
criminals.
Stricter
Eliminate
Enforcement
Causes
2
3
4
5
6
a. Where would you place yourself on this scale or haven't you
thought much about this?
0
Don't know
8
Haven't thought
about it
(GO TO Q. )
b. (Where would you place) Congress?
0
1....1
Don't know
C. (Where would you place) the Ford Administration?
0
Don't know
42. Now I'd like to mention several things people have proposed to help cut the
crime rate. As I mention each one tell me if you think it would or would not
help solve the problem. (ROTATE ITEMS)
Would
Would not
Don't know
a. Improve our prisons and rehabilitation
1
2
0
b. Increase number of policemen
1
2
0
C. Sentence people convicted of crimes
to longer jail terms
1
2
0
d. Ban hand guns
1
2
0
e. Mandatory prison terms with no
paroles for all crimes
1
2
0
f. Reinstitute capital punishment for
serious crimes
1
2
0
g. Improve neighborhood youth programs
1
2
0
43. Some people think that as the most powerful nation in the world, the United
States has a responsibility to be involved as a world leader and help other
countries where possible. Others think that we should only be involved in
foreign affairs when the interests of the United States are directly involved.
U.S. involved
U.S. has responsibility
only when interests
to help other countries
are involved
2
3
4
5
6
(INTERVIEWER: WRITE IN NUMBER)
a. Where would you place yourself on this scale or haven't you thought
much about it?
0.
Don't know
8. Haven't thought about (GO TO Q. 41)
b. (Where would you place) President Ford?
0.
Don't know
C. (Where would you place) Congress?
0.
Don't know
44. Some people think that we should try to relax tensions and reach
as many cooperative agreements with the Soviet Union as possible,
Others think we should treat the Soviet Union as an enemy and not
enter into any cooperative agreements until they change their form
of government.
Form
Do Not
Agreements
Form Agreements
1
2
3
4
5
6
a. Where would you place yourself on this scale or haven't you
thought much about this?
0
Don't know
8
Haven't you
thought about
it (GO TO Q.34)
b. (Where would you place) Congress?
0
Don't know
C. (Where would you place) the Ford Administration?
0
Don't know
45. Do you think it is or is not
Is
1
important for the United States
Is not
2
to keep its military strength
Don't know
0
equal to that of the Soviet
Union and China?
a. If the Soviet Union developed more
Develop new weapons
1
powerful weapons, some people think
Waste of money
2
it would be necessary for us to
Don't know
0
develop more powerful weapons of
our own while others think this
would be a waste of money as we
already have the capability of
destroying any nation many times
over. Which opinion is closest
to your own - that it would or
would not be necessary to develop
more powerful weapons to keep up
with the Soviet Union?
46. Do you think the U.S. should or
Should
1
should not give diplomatic
Should not
2
recognition to Cuba?
Don't know
0
47. Some people think that we should increase the amount of grain we sell to
foreign countries. Others think we ought to eliminate selling American
grain to foreign countries.
Increase Amount
Eliminate Amount
of Grain We Sell
Of Grain Sold
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
a. Where would you place yourself on this scale or haven't you
thought much about this?
0
Don't know
8
Haven't thought
about it (GO TO Q. )
b. (Where would you place) Congress?
0
Don't know
C. (Where would you place) the Ford Administration?
0
Don't know
48. There have been several reasons given as to why we should sell grain
to other countries. I'd like to mention several of these reasons to you
and have you tell me whether you think each one is a good reason or not
a good reason for selling the grain. (ROTATE ITEMS)
Good
Not good
Don't
Reason
Reason
Know
a. Help prevent starvation
1
2
0
b. Use as a bargaining tool to
get more oil at a lower price
1
2
0
C. Use to assist our foreign policy
1
2
0
d. Help increase prices for our
farmers
1
2
0
49. Overall, do you think the quality
Better
1
of your life is better, worse or
Worse
2
about the same as it was a year
About the same
3
or two ago?
Don't know
0
50. Looking ahead, do you think the
Better off
1
quality of your life will be better
Worse off
2
off, worse off, or about the same a
About the same
3
year from now than it is today?
Don't know.
0
51. As you know, we will be xelecrating our
Bicentennial next year. Thinking about
our country's past, what things would
you like to see done to improve our
country over the next few years?
52. Do you approve or disapprove of
Approve
1
way Gerald Ford is handling his
Disapprove
2
job as President?
Don't know.
0
a. How strongly do you approve of
a. How strongly do you disapprove of
the way Gerald Ford is handling
the way Gerald Ford is handling
his job as President - very
his job as President - very
strongly, fairly strongly, or not
strongly, fairly strongly, or not
too strongly?
too strongly?
Very strongly.
3
Very strongly.
3
Fairly strongly.
.2
Fairly strongly
2
Not too strongly
.1
Not too strongly
1
Don't know.
0
Don't know.
0
b. Why do you approve? (PROBE)
b. Why do you disapprove? (PROBE)
C. (IF ANSWER IS "Doing a good job,"
C. (IF ANSWER IS "Not doing a good
ASK:) What in particular do you
job," ASK:) What in particular
have in mind?
do you have in mind?
53. Now, I'd like you to think about Gerald
Ford for a moment not as President, but as
a person. What 2 or 3 words do you think
best describe him?
54. Is there anything President Ford had done
that has particularly impressed you since
he became President?
55. Is there anything President Ford has done
that has particularly disappointed you since
he became President?
56. Now, I'd like to mention three characteristics to you and using this card, I would
like you to rate each one on how well you think it describes President Ford -
extremely well, very well, fairly well, not very well, or not at all
well. (ROTATE ITEMS)
Not
Not at
Extremely
Very
Fairly
Very
all
Don't
Well
Well
Well
Well
Well
Know
Concerned for the
average person.
1
2
3
4
5
0
Does the right thing.
1
2
3
4
5
0
Gets results.
1
2
3
4
5
0
57.
How much do you feel you know about
A great deal
1
Gerald Ford and what he stands for -
A moderate amount
.2
a great deal, a moderate amount, or very
Very little.
.3
little?
Don't know.
.0
58.
Do you approve or disapprove of the way
Approve
1
Betty Ford is handling her job as First
Disapprove
.2
Lady?
Don't know
0
59. I would like to read you several names and I would like you to tell me if you are
aware or not aware of each one, (IF AWARE, ASK:) Is your general impression of
him favorable or unfavorable, and how much do you feel you know about him and what he
stands for - a great deal, a moderate amount, or very little?
A
A
Not
Favor-
Unfav-
Don't
Great
Moderate
Very
Don t
Aware
Aware
able
able
Know
Deal
Amount
Little
Know
a. Edmund Muskie
N
7
2
3
0
4
5
6
0
b. Morris Udall
N
7
2
3
0
4
5
6
0
C. Ted Kennedy
N
1
2
3
0
4
5
6
0
d. George Wallace
N
1
2
3
0
4
5
6
0
e. Hubert H. Humphrey
N
1
2
3
0
4
5
6
0
f. Scoop Jackson
N
7
2
3
0
4
5
6
0
g.
Ronald Reagan
N
1
2
3
0
4
5
6
0
h. Birch Bayh
N
1
2
3
0
4
5
6
0
60. I'm going to show you a seven-point scale on which the political views
that people might hold are arranged from extremely liberal to extremely
conservative.
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Extremely
Liberal
Liberal
Slightly
Liberal
Moderate,
Middle of the
Road -
Slightly
Conservative
Conservative
Extremely
Conservative
(INTERVIEWER RECORD NUMBER)
a. Where would you place yourself
on this scale, or haven't you
thought much about this?
Haven't thought much.
8
(GO TO Q. 61)
Don't know.
0
b. (Where would you place)
Congress?
Don't know.
0
C. (Where would you place)
President Ford?
Don't know
0
d. Ronald Reagan?
Don't know
0
e. George Wallace
Don't know.
0
f. Edward Kennedy
Don't know
0
g. Hubert Humphrey
Don't know
0
61. GU TO THE GREEN SCALES
62. Now I'm going to hand you a sample ballot for next year's Presidential
election. I would like you to mark it just as you would if the election
were being held today and the people listed on the ballot were the candi-
dates.
Please put it in the envelope, do not seal, but hold.
a. Now, to find out how strongly you feel about this election, I would like you
to fill out this sample ballot. Please mark the box next to the description
that best represents how you feel as of today.
(HAND INTENSITY BALLOT)
63. Now I'm going to hand you another sample ballot for next year's Presidential
election, and ask that you mark it just as you would if the election were
being held today and the people listed on the ballot were the candidates.
Please put it in the envelope also.
64. Now I'm going to hand you another sample ballot for next year's Presidential
election, and ask that you mark it just as you would if the election were
being held today and the people listed on the ballot were the candidates.
Please put it in the envelope also.
65. I am going to read you a series of statements that other people have
mentioned to us and as I read each one please tell me if you strongly
agree with it, agree, neither agree nor disagree, disagree, strongly
disagree with it.
Neither
Agree
Strongly
Nor
:
Strongly
Don't
Agree
Agree
Disagree
Disagree
Disagree
Know
a. We always seem to
have economic pro-
blems with Repub-
lican Presidents.
1
2
3
4
5
0
b. Pres. Ford is doing
a good job and deserv-
es to be elected.
1
2
3
4
5
0
C. Pres. Ford is an
honest man but not
smart enough to be
president.
1
2
3
4
5
0
d. We'd be better off
with a president that
has never had any-
thing to do with the
government in Washing-
ton before.
1
2
3
4
5
0
e. Pres. Ford would
have accomplished
more if he'd had a
better Congress to
work with.
1
2
3
4
5
0
f. Pres. Ford always
seems to be against
things but never for
anything.
1
2
3
4
5
0
66. If there was a Republican Presidential
Definitely vote
(GO TO a)
.1
Primary election in your State, and the
Probably vote
(GO TO a)
.2
candidates were Gerald Ford and Ronald
May or may not
(GO TO a)
.3
Reagan, would you definitely vote in that
Probably not vote
.4
Primary, probably vote, may or may not
Definitely not vote
.5
vote, probably not vote or definitely not
Don't know
0
vote in the Republican Primary?
a. I'm going to hand you a sample ballot for the Republican Presidential Primary
election and ask you to mark it just as you would if the primary were being
held today.
Please put it in the envelope.
b. Again, to find out how strongly you feel about the primary race, I would like
you to fill out this sample ballot. Please mark the box next to the description
that best represents how you feel as of today.
(HAND INTENSITY BALLOT)
Now, a few questions for statistical purposes
I.
Generally speaking, do you think
Republican
1
of yourself as a Republican, a
Independent
2
Democrat, an Independent, or what?
Democrat
3
Other
4
Don't know
0
II. In the last general election in which
a. Straight Democrat
1
you voted, which answer on this card
b. Mostly Democrat.
2
(HAND POLITICAL CARD) best describes
C. A few more Democrats
how you voted for state and local offices
than Republicans
3
such as Governor and Senator?
d. About equally for both
parties
4
e. A few more Republicans
than Democrats
5
f. Mostly Republican
6
g. Straight Republican
7
h. Never voted
8
i. Other
9
(Specify)
j. Don't know
0
III. Thinking about all elections, including
All of them
1
school, local, and primary elections,
Most of them
2
how many of them have you voted in
About half of them
3
over the past few years -- all of them,
Less than half of them
4
most of them, about half of them, less
None of them
5
than half of them, none of them?
Don't know
0
IV. What is your occupation?
a. (IF RESPONDENT IS NOT HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD)
What is the occupation of the head of the
household?
V
Please look at this card (HAND AGE CARD)
a. 17-20 years
1
and tell me the letter of the age group
b. 21-24 years
2
which represents your approximate age?
C. 25-29 years
3
d. 30-34 years
4
e. 35-39 years
5
f. 40-44 years
6
J. 45-49 years
7
h. 50-54 years
8
i. 55-59 years
9
j. 60-64 years
1
k. 65 and over
2
1. Refused
0
VI
What is the last grade of school you
Grade school or less
completed?
(Grade 1-8)
1
Some high school
2
Graduated high school
(Grade 9-12)
3
Vocational/Technical
School
4
Some college
5
Graduated college
6
Post graduate work
7
Refused
0
VII
In addition to being an American, what
British/English
1
do you consider your main ethnic or
Irish
2
nationality group to be?
Italian
3
Polish
4
German
5
French/Franco American
French Canadian
6
Greek
7
Cuban/ Spanish American-
8
Other
9
(specify)
Don't know
0
VIII. Are you or is any member of your family
Respondent.
1
a member of a labor union?
Other member
2
Both
3
No one
4
Don't know.
0
IX. In which state or states were you
brought up as a child? (WRITE STATE
BELOW)
X
Is your religious preference Protestant,
Roman Catholic.
1
Roman Catholic, Jewish or something
Protestant (e.g. Baptist,
else?
Methodist, etc.)
2
Jewish
1
3
Other
4
(Specify)
Agnostic/Atheist.
5
Don't know
8
Refused
9
None
0
XI Are you a home-owner or do you rent?
Home-owner
1
Rent
2
Don't know
0
XII Please look at this card (HAND INCOME
a. $0-$2,999
1
CARD) and tell me the letter of
b. $3,000-$4,999
2
income group that includes your TOTAL
C. $5,000-$5,999.
3
FAMILY INCOME in 1975 before taxes?
d. $6,000-$6,999.
4
e. $7,000-$9,999.
5
f. $10,000-$14,999.
6
g. $15,000-$24,999
7
h. $25,000 and over
8
i. Refused
0
XIII (BY OBSERVATION) Race:
White
i
Black
2
Oriental
3
Spanish-American/ Cuban
4
Other
5
(Specify)
IVX. (BY OBSERVATION) Sex:
Male
1
Female
2
s
THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME
FILL OUT AFTER COMPLETION OF INTERVIEW
NAME:
TELEPHONE NUMBER:
ADDRESS:
COUNTY:
CITY:
STATE:
Length of
Time
Date of
Interview:
Ended:
Interview:
INTERVIEWER'S NAME:
INTERVIEWER, PLEASE READ AND SIGN.
I have reread this completed questionnaire and certify that all questions
requi ring answers have been recorded in the respondent's exact words, and
that all boxes and spaces requiring an "X", a number, or a letter are filled
in. This bona fide interview has been obtained according to quota and
all interviewing specifications. I agree to keep the content of questions,
respondent's answers, and the subject of this interview confidential.
INTERVIEWER'S SIGNATURE:
SUPERVISOR'S NAME:
DATE:
SCALE CARD
X
Now, I'd like to have you do something different. There are many ways you can
judge a political candidate. He can be good or bad, interesting or uninteresting,
liberal or conservative, and many other things.
Let's take the active/passive rating below as an example. There are three
spaces on each side of the box which is exactly in the middle. If you feel the
person is very active, choose one of the spaces towards the word active, and mark
the space with an X : If you feel the person is neither active or passive.
make the middle box X . Use the passive spaces in the same way.
Move quickly down a page. You should do a page in about one minute.
Now, let's start with Gerald Ford as the example. Rate him on this scale.
GERALD FORD
Active
:
:
:
:
:
:
Passive
GERALD FORD
Intel ligent
:
:
:
:
:
:
Unintelligent
I
Bold
:
:
:
:
:
:
Timid
Dishonest
:
:
:
:
:
:
Honest
Decisive
:
:
:
:
:
:
Indecisive
Safe
:
:
:
:
:
:
Dangerous
Out of Touch
.
:
:
:
:
:
:
In Touch
Just
:
:
:
:
:
:
Unjust
Indifferent
:
:
:
:
:
:
Concerned
Straightforward
:
:
:
:
:
:
Evasive
Sincere
:
:
:
:
:
:
Insincere
Competent
:
:
:
:
:
:
Incompetent
1
Untrustworthy
:
:
:
:
:
:
Trustworthy
Strong
:
:
:
:
:
:
Weak
HUBERT HUMPHREY
I
Intelligent
:
:
:
:
:
:
Unintelligent
:
Bold
:
:
:
:
:
:
Timid
Dishonest
:
:
:
:
:
:
Honest
Decisive
:
:
:
:
:
:
Indecisive
Safe
:
:
:
:
:
:
Dangerous
Out of Touch
.
:
:
:
:
:
:
In Touch
.
Just
:
:
:
:
:
:
Unjust
Indifferent
:
:
:
:
:
:
Concerned
Straightforward
:
:
:
:
:
:
Evasive
Sincere
:
:
:
:
a
:
:
Insincere
Competent
:
:
:
:
:
:
Incompetent
Untrustworthy
/
:
:
:
:
:
:
Trustworthy
Strong
:
:
:
:
:
:
Weak
RONALD REAGAN
Intelligent
:
:
:
:
:
:
Unintelligent
:
Bold
:
:
:
:
:
:
Timid
Dishonest
:
:
:
:
:
:
Honest
Decisive
:
:
:
:
:
:
Indecisive
Safe
:
:
:
:
:
:
Dangerous
Out of Touch
-
.
:
:
:
:
:
:
In Touch
Just
.
.
:
:
:
:
:
:
Unjust
Indifferent
:
:
:
:
:
:
Concerned
Straightforward
:
:
:
:
:
:
Evasive
Sincere
:
:
:
:
:
a
:
Insincere
Competent
:
:
:
:
:
:
Incompetent
Untrustworthy
:
:
r
:
:
:
:
Trustworthy
Strong
:
:
:
:
:
:
Weak
,
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
(Check One)
REPUBLICAN
DEMOCRAT
AMERICAN INDEPENDENT
Gerald Ford
Hubert H. Humphrey
George C. Wallace
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
(Check One)
IF VOTED FOR GERALD FORD
IF VOTED FOR HUBERT H. HUMPHREY
IF VOTED FOR GEORGE WALLACE
Will definitely vote
Will definitely vote
Will definitely vote
for Gerald Ford
for Hubert Humphrey
for George Wallace
Will probably vote
Will probably vote
Will probably vote
for Gerald Ford
for Hubert Humphrey
for George Wallace
Am leaning toward
Am leaning toward
Am leaning toward:-
Gerald Ford
Humber Humphrey
George Wallace
AM UNDECIDED
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
(Check One)
REPUBLICAN
DEMOCRAT
Gerald Ford
Hubert H. Humphrey
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
(Check One)
REPUBLICAN
DEMOCRAT
Gerald Ford
Edward Kennedy
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY ELECTION
(CHECK ONE Box)
GERALD FORD
RONALD REAGAN
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
(Check One Box)
IF VOTED FOR GERALD FORD
IF VOTED FOR RONALD REAGAN
AM UNDECIDED ABOUT
VOTING
[
Will Definitely Vote for
Will Definitely Vote for
Gerald Ford
[ ]
Ronald Reagan
[ ]
Will Probably Vote for
Will Probably Vote for
Gerald Ford
Γ ]
Ronald Reagan
[ ]
Am Leaning toward Gerald
Am Leaning toward Ronald
Ford
[ ]
Reagan
[ ]
CHENEY GROUP MEETING WITH
THE PRESIDENT
WEDNESDAY, November 19, 1975
The Oval Office
9:15 a.m.
P -
\
Ms Hold
TELEPHONE CONVERSATION WITH BOB TEETER
November 24, 1975
As the recession abates, the cost of health care will
come right to the top of major issues.
Polls so far show people are to the right of center
on most issues except health. On health, they go all the
way left and believe the Federal government ought to provide
some kind of health insurance.
On questions relating to whether they would receive better
medical care under private insurance programs or government
insurance programs, they strongly favor government health
insurance.
In brief, people want to walk right in and get the best of
health care and they are looking to the Federal government
for health.
TELEPHONE CONVERSATION WITH BOB TEETER
November 24, 1975
As the recession abates, the cost of health care will
come right to the top of major issues.
Polls so far show people are to the right of center
on most issues except health. On health, they go all the
way left and believe the Federal government ought to provide
some kind of health insurance.
On questions relating to whether they would receive better
medical care under private insurance programs or government
insurance programs, they strongly favor government health
insurance.
In brief, people want to walk right in and get the best of
health care and they are looking to the Federal government
for health.
December 11, 1975
MEMORANDUM FOR:
BO CALLAWAY
FROM:
BOB TEETER
Rant
FRED STEEPER
SUBJECT:
Conclusions Drawn from National Trends in
the President's Approval Rating
DATA:
Gallup Opinion Index
Contrary to the Phillips, Evans-Novak, et al notion that the President has
been steadily losing ground in 1975, the overall trend line since April
has been upward.
The President has been consistently stronger with younger voters (under 30)
especially the 25-29 year olds than with older voters. With one brief
exception, the oldest voters (50 and over) have been the weakest age group
for the President during the past year. This is obviously unique for a
Republican and while it can be of great advantage in the general election,
it represents a serious problem for the primary. This should re-emphasize
11
the need for the administration to do something for old people in the SOTU
and to avoid any budget cuts that would impact on them.
11
President Ford is not receiving the approval from the South that he should.
His approval in the South has been about the same as in the other regions
since last March. Also, the great majority of the President's decline in
the summer and early fall was in the East.
The President is doing very well with college educated voters. The source
of his mediocre levels of approval is the high school educated voter. His
approval rating among the latter is closer to that of the uneducated voters,
i.e. poor Democrats, than to the college voters.
Men reacted very dramatically to the President's strong stand in the Mayaguez
incident. The President's surge in approval at that time underscores the
large pay-off with men resulting from the President taking a tough stand in
the area of international problems and incidents.
ford approval rating
100
East
Midwest
80
South
West
70
60
50
40
30
20
a s o n d 1 f m a m J I a S o n d I f m a m j I a S o n d
1974
1975
1976
ford approval rating
100
Male
Female
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
a s o n d 1 f m a m J J a S O n d j f m a m j I a S O n d
I
1974
1975
1976
source; gallup opinion index
ford approval rating
100
White
Non-White
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
a s o n d I f m a m J I a S o n d J f m a m I j a S o n d
1974
1975
1976
source: gallup opinion index
ford approval rating
100
College
High School
Grade School
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
a S O n d J f m a m J J a S O n d J f m a m j I a S o n d
1974
1975
1976
source; gallup opinion index
ToΓa approval rating
100
Republ ican
Independent
Democrat
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
a S o n d I f m a m 1 I a S O n d I f m a m I 1 a S o n d
I
1974
1975
1976
source: gallup opinion index
ford approval rating
100
Under 30
30-49 years
50 and older
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
a S O n d I f m a m J J a S O n d j f m a m I j a S o n d
1974
1975
1976
source; gallup opinion index
ford approval rating
100
Southern Democrat
Other Democrat
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
a S O n d I f m a m J I a S o n d I f m a m j I a S O n d
1974
1975
1976
source; gallup opinion index
ford approval rating
100
Protestant
Catholic
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
a S o n d I f m a m j I a S o n d 1 f m a m I I a S o n d
1974
1975
1976
source; gallup opinion index
ford approval rating
100
Union
Non-union
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
a S o n d J f m a m I I a S o n d 1 f m a m j I a S O n d
1974
1975
1976
source; gallup opinion index
December 12, 1975
MEMORANDUM FOR:
B0 CALLAWAY
FROM:
BOB TEETER
Runt
SUBJECT:
Bill Signing/Vetoes
With three tough bill-signings or vetoes coming up, it is critical
that the President realize whatever advantages there are in the
positions he takes on each of these three issues. One of the
problems over the past few weeks is that when the President takes
a position or action, he seems to lose ground with not only the
groups who are opposed to that action, but those who favor it.
Clearly, this was the case with New York. The President is being
perceived as having bailed New York out when he said he wouldn't,
and is not getting any advantage for having forced more changes
and reforms to take place than almost anyone possible.
Unless we are careful, this is going to be the case with the
common situs and energy bills. If he vetoes common situs, the
unions are going to be mad and the business people are not going
to be particularly happy because they had to fight so hard to turn
him around when they thought he should have been on their side
from the beginning. If he does veto it, it has got to be done
with an interpretation of how his veto will help individual citizens
(keeping the price of housing down, and helping rejuvenate the
construction industry) and not because he is anti-union or pro
big-business. It may, however, be an opportunity to take a crack
at big unions and a way to prevent the over-concentration of power
in big unions.
If he signs. the energy bill, it has got to be done with the inter-
pretation of accomplishing some of the things he has proposed while
helping the consumer by holding prices down during economic recovery.
And it is also an opportunity to take a crack at the big oil companies
who everybody dislikes. This would also provide some balance to the
anti-union interpretation of a common situs veto. The key, in my
opinion, to the anti-bigness or concentration of power theme, IS
balance. It can't look like he is using this idea as a means to go
after one group more than the other. The President needs to be per-
ceived as being against the concentration of power whether it is in
big government, big unions, or big business.
He also needs to be careful when taking on the unions not to become
anti-"the working man". While only slightly more than half of those
who make their living by manual labor belong to unions, many of them
identify with union causes.
We also need to get commitments for the active, vocal support of
those who agree with what the President does on these bills after
he acts. Whatever position he takes, there are groups and
individuals who will support and interpret positively what he did.
In summary, we are not getting any political advantage from the
positions the President is already taking and have got to begin
to do so now. This is not achieved by interpreting every action
as a middle-to-moderate position which results in everybody
thinking you are not doing enough for them, but rather by doing
something that will make a group of citizens happy and add them
to the constituency. The people who are opposed to the action
are going to be mad regardless of the explanation.
December 11, 1975
MEMORANDUM FOR:
B0 CALLAWAY
FROM:
ROBERT TEETER
But
SUBJECT:
Momentum
The Gallup Poll is a further indication that we have a serious
momentum problem. However, in attempting to slow Reagan down
and regain the momentum for the President, there are several
things we should keep in mind.
1. Without a Mayaguez or something comparable that we
don't see in the immediate future, there is probably no
one thing the President can do to himself to turn
this situation around. Moreover, we ought not to
be looking for something spectacular but rather
develop a plan in conjunction with the White House
to work our way out of this problem over the next
six weeks.
2. The Christmas lull may well be the best thing we
have going for us in that it should blunt Reagan's
momentum and give us the opportunity to start anew
after the first of the year. However, what the
President does over Christmas may be significant.
Whatever he does should be seen as working at the
Presidency and if he goes to Colorado for Christmas,
it should be for a minimum amount of time, the family
tradition and family get-together aspect emphasized,
and it be seen as a working vacation.
3. We need people out talking about the President,
explaining, agreeing with, and praising his actions.
Most of the things that need to be said about the
President are things he can't say himself. There
needs to be a planned series of speeches, interviews,
etc., over the next two or three months by admin-
istration officials and other public figures talking
about President Ford, what he is trying to do and what
he has accomplished. This needs to be happening in
the various regions of the country every day during
the early months of next year.
4. It may be time for us to help put the bright light on
Reagan. No one yet has really gone after his record
as Governor of California or his 90 billion dollar
proposal which most of the press people recognize as
unwise, unworkable and a political blunder. While the
President certainly shouldn't do this and the majority
of it should be reserved until after the new year, I
think we need one recognized, respected public figure
to make a tough, blunt statement on just what Reagan's
record is and what he might do to the country, let
alone the Republican Party before Christmas. This
person should not be directly connected with the
President Ford Committee nor should he be seen as a
member of the liberal wing of the Republican Party.
He should be someone like Laird or Rogers Morton.
One further note is that the President's political travel is going
to get blamed (and probably rightly) for a share of this downturn.
It is my belief that it is not the fact that he traveled as much
as he did during the past few months as much as what he said and
how he said it that hurt him. I think he could have made most of
the trips and gone to most of the fund-raisers if he would have
avoided the partisan rhetoric and talked to the country as
President in each of these appearances rather than to the narrow
partisan audiences. This is easy to say with the benefit of
hindsight, but I think it once again points out how very
important style of leadership, that is the way he does what he
does, is to his perception. Also the fact that anything he
does is seen and heard by the entire country, not just his
actual audience or those who live in the region he happens
to be in.
MEMORANDUM
To: Bo Callaway
From: Robert Teeter
Runt
Date: December 9, 1975
For the record. After looking over the data from the NBC Poll and talking
to Bud Lewis who conducted it, I think there are three reasons for the
discrepancy between the earlier Gallup data.
1) The question was different. The NBC Poll asked who Republicans
preferred to have as the nominee and the Gallup Poll asked who
they would vote for.
2) The Republican sample was very small -- only 256 out of a
total sample of 1,066. This incidentally, was not mentioned
on the air.
3) By far the most significant reason is the method of filtering
Republicans they used. They only accepted registered Republicans
into their sample which systematically excluded Republicans in
all those states who do not have party registration, many of
which are undoubtedly strong Ford states (Michigan, Illinois).
This undoubtedly was a mistake and I am sure Lewis recognizes
it. However, as a result of my conversations with him, our
relations are pretty good and I think the best course of
action is to maintain a relationship with him rather than
attack them publicly.
MEMORANDUM
To: Bo Callaway
From: Robert Teeter
RUT
Date: December 5, 1975
It is becoming apparent to me that while the idea of the President's
28 billion dollar tax and budget cut is popular and will help him politically,
it will not win the election. The major reason for this is, it like several
of the President's recent programs don't do anything for anybody even though
there is majority agreement with them. They all cut back and take something
away from people rather than given them anything or do anything positively
for them. As Lloyd Free pointed out Monday, there is a lot of evidence
that many successful politicans get that way by talking conservatively and
acting liberally.
I think the President needs to have a series of proposals and programs that
do something for individual citizens to help them make their lives better.
I recognize the economic realities of not being able to add major programs
to the budget next year, but I am sure that we can find a series of things
that the administration can do or propose to Congress that will help
people that don't have large price tags attached.
It would be helpful if we could come up with a number of programs that would
together form a theme for the administration for next year and for the cam-
paign. One possibility might be to come up with proposals in the area of
de-regulation, privacy, anti-trust and others that would increase competition,
limit large institutions of all kinds and thereby help individuals. As I
have pointed out previously, the levels of alienation and cynicism are at
an all-time high and are directed at most major institutions. Moreover, when
questioned closely, most people feel the problem with these institutions is
that they have become too big. I think this anti-bigness, anti-concentration
of power theme might be a good one for the administration for several reasons.
Most importantly, it fits the tenor of the times, is consistent with Republican
principles and would not cause us any problems in the primaries. It is a
theme into which we could fit the President's budget cutting proposals and
it is one which can have balance. That is, if the general theme is to
attack the concentrations of power, we can build in programs to limit big
government, big unions, big businesses and other large institutions and
not appear to be one-sided. Also, we can find an example of how all of
these proposals ultimately serve to help individual citizens and consumers.
Whatever theme we decide on, I think there are several elements we could
keep in mind in presenting it.
First, it ought to have the element of hope. Hope has been the basis for
successful politics for a long time and while people want less government
they also want change. While this is no time to overpromise or raise
expectations above reality, we ought to try to give people some hope that
things can and will change for the better with Gerald Ford as President.
Second, whatever proposals we make, we ought to remember that two good
general rules of politics are that it is impossible to over-simplify
proposals or to repeat them too often. Also, we need to find examples
of how individuals have been hurt by. specific situations and how our
proposed changes will help individuals. For example, should we decide
to do something with the privacy issue, I am sure we can find a number of
examples where individuals, not just public figures, have been wronged by
the bureaucracy or some computer system and that the President's program
will correct.
Another area that needs attention is that we are not getting enough political
mileage out of the proposals and actions that the Administration is already
taking. The President has made a series of comprehensive proposals in the
crime area, which is an issue of great concern to voters, including a prop-
osal for mandatory sentencing. Yet there is no evidence that the President
has gotten any support for this or that he is identified with it. The
proposals were sent to Congress, he made one speech in Sacramento, which
AT
got lost in the Fromme incident, and we haven't done anything with it
since then. In the last few weeks, the FTC has floated the idea of an
Dorn
anti-trust action against General Motors and taken action against the
American Pharmaceutical Association which if successful would lower the
Brones
price of prescription drugs and yet the President has in no way been
identified with either of these. All of these proposals could be inter-
co
preted to help individuals. Also remember, there is no evidence anywhere
that to be anti-big business is to be anti-Republican.
Another example is that if he decides to sign the energy bill, we ought
to get some credit for being against the big oil companies. There is
absolutely no support for the oil companies and there is wide-spread public
belief that they were and are part of the cause of the energy crisis and
increased gasoline prices.
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MEMORANDUM
To: Bo Callaway
From: Robert Teeter
Rut
Date: December 8, 1975
We have examined all the public and available private data for the full-
term of the Ford Presidency for the purpose of identifying the current and
potential Ford constituency. While it is impossible to analyze this subject
in as much detail as need be until the national poll is completed, the public
polling data does give us some insight into just where the President's current
support is now.
The most important finding is that there is no unique Ford constituency
independent of that of a normal or traditional Republican President with
one exception.
The President's approval rating and ballot strength come largely from voters
that would be expected to support a Republican President. This is not to say,
however, that we are in serious trouble because Republicans constitute a small
minority of the electorate but rather says that he will win the election with
the same coalition of states and voters within those states that other winning
Republicans have had. He will not win by creating a unique constituency of
various special groups of voters as Nixon did in 1972. It is an established
fact that in most states, various Republicans who win regardless of their
ideological or other differences do, in fact, get their support from the same
general constituency.
Even though one winning Republican candidate may get 60% and another only
51%, they tend to get the same proportion of their support from the same
places. One just does better with all groups than the other. For example,
in Pennsylvania, Scranton, Schafer, Scott and to a lesser degree Schweiker,
all win the state with about the same coalition. The same is true for Olgivie
and Percy in Illinois.
The one exception is that for a Republican, he does have unique strength
among younger voters (18-35) and it appears that this younger voter strength
is fairly solid and can be conducted throughout the election. Apparently
the reasons for it are the perception of the President's personal qualities
and a positive perception of his family.
The important point is that the President will win the election by carrying
the large swing states and will carry each of these states individually with
approximately the same coalition of voters that other Republicans who have
won statewide in those states have had rather than with some unique demo-
graphic constituency.
This means that for most swing states, the strategy will be to get at least
90% of the Republicans, 60%-65% of the ticket-splitters or swing voters and
10%-15% of the Democrats. It also means that we can best identify the priority
areas in these states by voting analysis rather than demographic analysis.
Obviously, then the ticket-splitters in the states become our target voters.
In most of middle-to-large states there are now two groups of ticket-splitters
we need to be concerned with. The first is a group of voters who tend to
have slightly higher incomes, be slightly better educated, and are generally
slightly more white-collar than the average voters. These voters tend to live
in the middle-sized communities and suburban areas and are generally in the
upper-middle, socio-economic class. They have been splitting their ticket for
some time, think of themselves as good government voters, formerly were
moderate to liberal on most domestic issues but have become more conservative
on economic and some social issues such as busing. They also tend to be
somewhat younger than the average voters (under 45).
Beginning in about 1968, a second group of voters began to split their tickets.
This group is about the same age as the first but is somewhat lower on the
socio-economic scale. They tend to be blue-collar and are generally people
who make their living through manual labor. They come from a Democratic back-
ground and still vote for more Democrats than Republicans. Many of them
split their ticket for the first time in 1968 to vote for Wallace and then
again in 1972 to vote either for Nixon (or against McGovern). This group is
more conservative than the first on the social issues but are for a greater
degree of government involvement in the economy.
This group has been variously interpreted as the new majority, periferal
urban ethnics, and by a number of other demographic descriptions. While
some of these descriptions may be demographically correct, none of them
address the reason these people have begun to split their ticket. That
is, the one common characteristic between both groups of ticket-splitters
is that they are made up of people who have moved up a social class in
their own lifetime. They are almost all people who are a social class
higher than their parents were. Even though many of these voters may be
ethnic Catholics in the east, it is not either their ethnicity or
Catholicism that makes them ticket-splitters. There are voters of the
same social class who split their ticket for the same reasons in Georgia,
and Iowa and California, but who do not have the same demographic char-
acteristics as their counterparts in Massachusetts, New York, or New Jersey.
Demographic information is useful, however, in that we have found the past
that if we can identify the demographic characteristics of a ticket-splitter
and they can find an area with similar demographics, but rather ticket-
splitting ways go in and cause ticket-splitting with an introduction of
intensive campaign effort.
Because of their age, many ticket-splitters are parents and interested in
issues that have to do with children, with home ownership, and with job
opportunities. They are generally the people who want to protect what
they have gained but are not opposed to the government helping others
as long as they don't perceive it as hurting themselves.
The current national study will give us detailed information on the current
Ford constituency potential but not realized Ford support at the issue
MEETING WITH BOB TEETER
FRIDAY, December 19, 1975
Roosevelt Room
10:00 a.m.