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The Honorable Nelson A. Rockefeller
2
21 January 1976
a great earthquake can be given, thousands of lives could
be saved and the possibilities of conflagration and
flooding substantially reduced.
In Japan, a geophysical anomaly of this magnitude wculd
trigger an intensive study or a public alert.
Unfortunately, there are insufficient funds in the
national research program on earthquake prediction to monitor
the region of uplift and provide the scientific attention
which this anomaly deserves. To carry out the program of
monitoring and research on the origin of the uplift, an initial
outlay of about two million dollars would be required. Beyond
the first year, an annual budget of one million dollars would
be needed for resurveying, equipment maintenance and data an-
alysis. The essence of the problem is that gradual changes in
the ground deformation, earthquake activity, magnetic field
and other phenomena have been shown to precede large earth-
quakes. In order to predict the time of occurrence, however,
these effects must be measured continuously.
The total earthquake prediction program in the United
States amounts to about five million dollars a year. In view
of the large number of casualties and the potential damage of
a great earthquake, many of us believe that this program can
justifiably be increased.
You may recall that when you attended a meeting of the
National Science Board last year, I told you about the great
accomplishment of Chinese scientists in predicting a great
earthquake in northeast China a few hours before its occurrence.
The Chinese evacuated tens of thousands of people and claim
to have saved thousands of lives. Having visited China, I can
attest to their technical proficiency in this field of science,
and express my own concern that because of insufficient re-
sources a similar achievement may not be possible in this
country.
Yours sincerely,
FORD
Frank Press
out
Chair:
FP/ac
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"ocrText": "The Honorable Nelson A. Rockefeller\n2\n21 January 1976\na great earthquake can be given, thousands of lives could\nbe saved and the possibilities of conflagration and\nflooding substantially reduced.\nIn Japan, a geophysical anomaly of this magnitude wculd\ntrigger an intensive study or a public alert.\nUnfortunately, there are insufficient funds in the\nnational research program on earthquake prediction to monitor\nthe region of uplift and provide the scientific attention\nwhich this anomaly deserves. To carry out the program of\nmonitoring and research on the origin of the uplift, an initial\noutlay of about two million dollars would be required. Beyond\nthe first year, an annual budget of one million dollars would\nbe needed for resurveying, equipment maintenance and data an-\nalysis. The essence of the problem is that gradual changes in\nthe ground deformation, earthquake activity, magnetic field\nand other phenomena have been shown to precede large earth-\nquakes. In order to predict the time of occurrence, however,\nthese effects must be measured continuously.\nThe total earthquake prediction program in the United\nStates amounts to about five million dollars a year. In view\nof the large number of casualties and the potential damage of\na great earthquake, many of us believe that this program can\njustifiably be increased.\nYou may recall that when you attended a meeting of the\nNational Science Board last year, I told you about the great\naccomplishment of Chinese scientists in predicting a great\nearthquake in northeast China a few hours before its occurrence.\nThe Chinese evacuated tens of thousands of people and claim\nto have saved thousands of lives. Having visited China, I can\nattest to their technical proficiency in this field of science,\nand express my own concern that because of insufficient re-\nsources a similar achievement may not be possible in this\ncountry.\nYours sincerely,\nFORD\nFrank Press\nout\nChair:\nFP/ac"
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