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THE VICE PRESICENT
WASHINGTON
February 5, 1976
FORD
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE PRESIDENT
GERALD
LIBRARY
FROM:
THE VICE PRESIDENT
SUBJECT:
Indications of Possible Major Earthquake
in California
1. At one of the Science-Advisory Panel meetings
two weeks ago, Dr. Frank Press, Chairman of the
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at M.I.T.,
reported on indications of a possible major earthquake
in California. Through Dr. Teller, I asked him to
give me the basic information, which is in the attached
letter.
2. As Dr. Press' letter states, this information
will soon become public, probably in Science magazine,
later this month.
3. I have sent copies of the letter to
Dr. Teller, Dr. Hans Mark, and Dr. Guy Stever of the
National Science Foundation, as well as to the
chairmen of the two science-and-technology advisory
and consulting groups (Simon Ramo and Bill Baker).
4. What is at stake is:
-- restoration of 25% funding cut for the
U.S. Geological Survey's National
Earthquake Information Service;
-- appropriation of $2 million for a "dense"
earthquake-monitoring network at the
Southern end of the San Andreas fault,
similar to the network already operating
effectively at the Northern end of the
fault, near San Francisco;
2.
-- consideration of additional funds
($10 - $20 million) to "put us at the
same level as the Chinese" in our
national earthquake-predicting capability.
5. I am arranging a meeting today of Domestic
Council staff people and representatives of the
Interior Department (U.S. Geological Survey), H.U.D.
(disaster assistance), the National Science Foundation
and OMB.
6. This group will review the attached letter
and report to me on what should be recommended. I'll
have these recommendations ready for you at our
meeting next week.
FORD LIBRARY & GERALD
bcc: Jim Cannon
Glenn Schleede
AMENDED COPY
THE VICE PRESIDERT
WADHIRGTON
Junuary 28, 1976
FORD LIBRARY
Dear Dr. Press:
Many thanks for your letter of January 21.
I was fascinated by your discussion of our devel-
oping carthquake-prediction capability at that part
of the advisory-group meeting I attended two weeks
ago. Now your letter puts what we can feasibly
do into realistic perspective and makes our need to
perfect an actual eanthquahe-prediction capability
all the more urgent.
You are raising what is literally a vital
matter of concern for the Nation. This is precisely
the kind of matter the President had in mind when
he created these advisory-and-consulting groups.
He and I appreciate all that you have been doing.
I'm deeply grateful to you for following
up your conversation with Edward with this detailed
and chilling analysis for me.
With best wishes,
Sincerely,
JCC:
Dr. Baker
Dr. Drew
Dr. Elliott
Dr. Frank Press
Capt. Howe
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences
Dr. Mark
Masnachusetts Institute of Vechnology
Dr. Ramo
Cambridge, 02139
Mr. Schleed
Dr. Stever
Dr. Teller
P.S. I would appreciate having your views on
the appropriate procedure from this point.
DEPARTMENT OF EARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCES
MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS 02139
21 January 1976
The Honorable Nelson A. Rockefeller
Vice President
Room 275
Old Executive Office Building
Washington, D. C. 20500
FORD i LIBRARY GERALD
Dear Mr. Vice President:
Edward Teller, my fellow member on the Advisory
Group in Science and Technology, tells me that he mentioned
to you our deep concern over a recent discovery of the U. S.
Geological Survey that much of the Mojave Desert of south-
ern California and the mountains to the southeast of it
have risen as much as one foot in the past fifteen years.
The uplift is centered along the northern edge of the San
Andreas fault, the fault that gave rise to the 1906 earth-
quake in San Francisco. The discovery, which will soon be
released publicly, is most disturbing because such uplifts
in the past have preceded earthquakes of great destructive
power. This particular section of the San Andreas fault
lies about 40 miles north of Los Angeles. In the view of
most knowledgeable scientists, it is a dangerous section
having last broken in a great earthquake in 1857.
The effect on Los Angeles of an earthquake in the region
of the uplift would be quite disastrous. A structural engi-
neer at U.C.L.A., Professor Martin Duke, has estimated that
as many as 40,000 buildings would suffer collapse or serious
damage.
There is no question that the uplift must be taken very
seriously even though geophysicists have, as yet, no clear
understanding of its origin or significance. An uplift
preceded the earthquake that struck San Fernando, California
in 1971, and uplifts have preceded earthquakes in Japan and
China. An uplift in Southern California around 1900, however,
was not followed by an earthquake.
The region of the uplift should now be subjected to a
most intense scrutiny and the future developments monitored
closely. If even an approximate warning of the approach of
(page 1 of 2)
The Honorable Nelson A. Rockefeller
2
21 January 1976
a great earthquake can be given, thousands of lives could
be saved and the possibilities of conflagration and
flooding substantially reduced.
In Japan, a geophysical anomaly of this magnitude would
trigger an intensive study or a public alert.
Unfortunately, there are insufficient funds in the
national research program on earthquake prediction to monitor
the region of uplift and provide the scientific attention
which this anomaly deserves. To carry out the program of
monitoring and research on the origin of the uplift, an initial
outlay of about two million dollars would be required. Beyond
the first year, an annual budget of one million dollars would
be needed for resurveying, equipment maintenance and data an-
alysis. The essence of the problem is that gradual changes in
the ground deformation, earthquake activity, magnetic field
and other phenomena have been shown to precede large earth-
quakes. In order to predict the time of occurrence, however,
these effects must be measured continuously.
The total earthquake prediction program in the United
States amounts to about five million dollars a year. In view
of the large number of casualties and the potential damage of
a great earthquake, many of us believe that this program can
justifiably be increased.
You may recall that when you attended a meeting of the
National Science Board last year, I told you about the great
accomplishment of Chinese scientists in predicting a great
earthquake in northeast China a few hours before its occurrence.
The Chinese evacuated tens of thousands of people and claim
to have saved thousands of lives. Having visited China, I can
attest to their technical proficiency in this field of science,
and express my own concern that because of insufficient re-
sources a similar achievement may not be possible in this
country.
Yours sincerely,
GERALD FORD LIBRARY
Frank Press
Chairman
FP/ac
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"ocrText": "THE VICE PRESICENT\nWASHINGTON\nFebruary 5, 1976\nFORD\nMEMORANDUM FOR:\nTHE PRESIDENT\nGERALD\nLIBRARY\nFROM:\nTHE VICE PRESIDENT\nSUBJECT:\nIndications of Possible Major Earthquake\nin California\n1. At one of the Science-Advisory Panel meetings\ntwo weeks ago, Dr. Frank Press, Chairman of the\nDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences at M.I.T.,\nreported on indications of a possible major earthquake\nin California. Through Dr. Teller, I asked him to\ngive me the basic information, which is in the attached\nletter.\n2. As Dr. Press' letter states, this information\nwill soon become public, probably in Science magazine,\nlater this month.\n3. I have sent copies of the letter to\nDr. Teller, Dr. Hans Mark, and Dr. Guy Stever of the\nNational Science Foundation, as well as to the\nchairmen of the two science-and-technology advisory\nand consulting groups (Simon Ramo and Bill Baker).\n4. What is at stake is:\n-- restoration of 25% funding cut for the\nU.S. Geological Survey's National\nEarthquake Information Service;\n-- appropriation of $2 million for a \"dense\"\nearthquake-monitoring network at the\nSouthern end of the San Andreas fault,\nsimilar to the network already operating\neffectively at the Northern end of the\nfault, near San Francisco;\n2.\n-- consideration of additional funds\n($10 - $20 million) to \"put us at the\nsame level as the Chinese\" in our\nnational earthquake-predicting capability.\n5. I am arranging a meeting today of Domestic\nCouncil staff people and representatives of the\nInterior Department (U.S. Geological Survey), H.U.D.\n(disaster assistance), the National Science Foundation\nand OMB.\n6. This group will review the attached letter\nand report to me on what should be recommended. I'll\nhave these recommendations ready for you at our\nmeeting next week.\nFORD LIBRARY & GERALD\nbcc: Jim Cannon\nGlenn Schleede\nAMENDED COPY\nTHE VICE PRESIDERT\nWADHIRGTON\nJunuary 28, 1976\nFORD LIBRARY\nDear Dr. Press:\nMany thanks for your letter of January 21.\nI was fascinated by your discussion of our devel-\noping carthquake-prediction capability at that part\nof the advisory-group meeting I attended two weeks\nago. Now your letter puts what we can feasibly\ndo into realistic perspective and makes our need to\nperfect an actual eanthquahe-prediction capability\nall the more urgent.\nYou are raising what is literally a vital\nmatter of concern for the Nation. This is precisely\nthe kind of matter the President had in mind when\nhe created these advisory-and-consulting groups.\nHe and I appreciate all that you have been doing.\nI'm deeply grateful to you for following\nup your conversation with Edward with this detailed\nand chilling analysis for me.\nWith best wishes,\nSincerely,\nJCC:\nDr. Baker\nDr. Drew\nDr. Elliott\nDr. Frank Press\nCapt. Howe\nDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences\nDr. Mark\nMasnachusetts Institute of Vechnology\nDr. Ramo\nCambridge, 02139\nMr. Schleed\nDr. Stever\nDr. Teller\nP.S. I would appreciate having your views on\nthe appropriate procedure from this point.\nDEPARTMENT OF EARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCES\nMASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY\nCAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS 02139\n21 January 1976\nThe Honorable Nelson A. Rockefeller\nVice President\nRoom 275\nOld Executive Office Building\nWashington, D. C. 20500\nFORD i LIBRARY GERALD\nDear Mr. Vice President:\nEdward Teller, my fellow member on the Advisory\nGroup in Science and Technology, tells me that he mentioned\nto you our deep concern over a recent discovery of the U. S.\nGeological Survey that much of the Mojave Desert of south-\nern California and the mountains to the southeast of it\nhave risen as much as one foot in the past fifteen years.\nThe uplift is centered along the northern edge of the San\nAndreas fault, the fault that gave rise to the 1906 earth-\nquake in San Francisco. The discovery, which will soon be\nreleased publicly, is most disturbing because such uplifts\nin the past have preceded earthquakes of great destructive\npower. This particular section of the San Andreas fault\nlies about 40 miles north of Los Angeles. In the view of\nmost knowledgeable scientists, it is a dangerous section\nhaving last broken in a great earthquake in 1857.\nThe effect on Los Angeles of an earthquake in the region\nof the uplift would be quite disastrous. A structural engi-\nneer at U.C.L.A., Professor Martin Duke, has estimated that\nas many as 40,000 buildings would suffer collapse or serious\ndamage.\nThere is no question that the uplift must be taken very\nseriously even though geophysicists have, as yet, no clear\nunderstanding of its origin or significance. An uplift\npreceded the earthquake that struck San Fernando, California\nin 1971, and uplifts have preceded earthquakes in Japan and\nChina. An uplift in Southern California around 1900, however,\nwas not followed by an earthquake.\nThe region of the uplift should now be subjected to a\nmost intense scrutiny and the future developments monitored\nclosely. If even an approximate warning of the approach of\n(page 1 of 2)\nThe Honorable Nelson A. Rockefeller\n2\n21 January 1976\na great earthquake can be given, thousands of lives could\nbe saved and the possibilities of conflagration and\nflooding substantially reduced.\nIn Japan, a geophysical anomaly of this magnitude would\ntrigger an intensive study or a public alert.\nUnfortunately, there are insufficient funds in the\nnational research program on earthquake prediction to monitor\nthe region of uplift and provide the scientific attention\nwhich this anomaly deserves. To carry out the program of\nmonitoring and research on the origin of the uplift, an initial\noutlay of about two million dollars would be required. Beyond\nthe first year, an annual budget of one million dollars would\nbe needed for resurveying, equipment maintenance and data an-\nalysis. The essence of the problem is that gradual changes in\nthe ground deformation, earthquake activity, magnetic field\nand other phenomena have been shown to precede large earth-\nquakes. In order to predict the time of occurrence, however,\nthese effects must be measured continuously.\nThe total earthquake prediction program in the United\nStates amounts to about five million dollars a year. In view\nof the large number of casualties and the potential damage of\na great earthquake, many of us believe that this program can\njustifiably be increased.\nYou may recall that when you attended a meeting of the\nNational Science Board last year, I told you about the great\naccomplishment of Chinese scientists in predicting a great\nearthquake in northeast China a few hours before its occurrence.\nThe Chinese evacuated tens of thousands of people and claim\nto have saved thousands of lives. Having visited China, I can\nattest to their technical proficiency in this field of science,\nand express my own concern that because of insufficient re-\nsources a similar achievement may not be possible in this\ncountry.\nYours sincerely,\nGERALD FORD LIBRARY\nFrank Press\nChairman\nFP/ac"
}