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Audience
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Audience
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Michael Raoul-Duval Papers
Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter Debates Files
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Debates and debating
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The original documents are located in Box 25, folder "Audience" of the Michael
Raoul-Duval Papers at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library.
Copyright Notice
The copyright law of the United States (Title 17, United States Code) governs the making of
photocopies or other reproductions of copyrighted material. Michael Raoul-Duval donated to the
United States of America his copyrights in all of his unpublished writings in National Archives
collections. The copyrights to materials written by other individuals or organizations are presumed
to remain with them. Works prepared by U.S. Government employees as part of their official duties
are in the public domain. The copyrights to materials written by other individuals or organizations
are presumed to remain with them. If you think any of the information displayed in the PDF is
subject to a valid copyright claim, please contact the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library.
August 25, 1976
Sule Debatandine
Dear Bill:
I wish to acknowledge receipt and thank
you for your August 24 letter to the
President regarding the proposed debates
between Presidential candidates.
You may be assured your letter will be
called promptly to the attention of the
President and his advisers. I know your
recommendations will be greatly appreciated.
With kindest regards,
FORD & LIBRARY GERALIC
Sincerely,
Max L. Friedersdorf
Assistant to the President
The Honorable Bill Goodling
House of Representatives
Washington, D.C. 20515
bcc: w/incoming to Dick Cheney for further handling
MLF: JEB: V0:vo
of incoming to Mike Duval, tyi
BILL GOODLING
19TH DISTRICT, PENNSYLVANIA
Copy
WASHINGTON OFFICE:
ROOM 1713
LONGWORTH HOUSE OFFICE BUILDING
COMMITTEES:
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20515
COMMITTEE ON EDUCATION AND
TELEPHONE: (202) 225-3836
LABOR
Congress of the United States
SUBCOMMITTEES:
DISTRICT OFFICES:
ELEMENTARY, SECONDARY AND
VOCATIONAL EDUCATION
house of Representatives
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YORK, PENNSYLVANIA 17403
COMMITTEE ON
Washington, D.C. 20515
CHAMBER BUILDING
SMALL BUSINESS
212 NORTH HANOVER STREET
SUBCOMMTTEES:
August 24, 1976
CARLISLE, PENNSYLVANIA 17013
SMALL BUSINESS
ADMINISTRATION OVERSIGHT
POST OFFICE BUILDING
SMALL BUSINESS LEGISLATION
ROOM 209
GETTYSBURG, PENNSYLVANIA 17325
The Honorable Gerald R. Ford
President
The White House
GERALD FORD LIBRARY
Washington, D. C.
Dear Mr. President:
MP
I am writing to compliment you on your decision to debate the
Democratic nominee for President this fall and to express a concern
that I have about the format for the debate.
If the debate is sponsored by the League of Women Voters, as
has been proposed, I have no doubt that they will desire a format
which will include a live audience. I think it would be unwise to
agree to this portion of their proposal. The League of Women Voters
audiences are normally more Democratic and more liberal than the voting
population as a whole and the live audience reaction of their membership
could adversly influence the opinions of the television audience. This
would especially be the case if the television networks were allowed to
cutaway to the live audience during the presentations by the candidates.
A member of your campaign staff may have already expressed this
concern to you, but I wanted to put it forth just in case. Congratulations
on your nomination. Your acceptance speech was great in both content
and delivery. I hope you'll keep saying the same thing with the same
enthusiasm everywhere. The message is the same that I have been delivering
to others in your behalf. Its a message that can win for us in November,
not only your election, but the election of congressional candidates
challenging incumbent Democrats. Please be aware that I am ready and
willing to do whatever I can to assure you and Senator Dole a great
victory in the fall.
Sincerely,
Bill
BILL GOODLING
Member of Congress
BG:dl/p
CC: Stuart Spencer
Doug Bailey
RBG HAS SEEN
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 9, 1976
Mike conarl 70h
MEMORANDUM FOR:
DICK CHENEY
FROM:
MIKE DUVAL
Mele
SUBJECT:
DEBATES - AUDIENCE
Dick, I think it's important to put in perspective the
FORD & LIBRARY GERALD
commonly-held opinion that the first debate is the whole
ballgame. I suspect that this opinion rests on two pre-
mises:
First, the size of the viewing audience will appreciably
diminish after the first debate.
Second, the voters' minds will tend to be made up by
watching the first debate, and especially by press com-
mentary following it, and this is not likely to be changed
by the subsequent debates.
I think it would be a great mistake for us to approach our pre-
paration for the 1976 debates by underestimating the importance
of the second and third Presidential debates. As a factual
matter, there is a real question in my mind as to whether
or not the size of the audience will, in fact, diminish for
the second and third debates. In 1960, the evidence is not
clear on this point (see attached) and, in any event, the
size of the audience we will have for all the 1976 debates
will be enormous compared to any other campaign event, so it
must be treated with the utmost seriousness.
If Daniel Yankelovich is correct in his assumption that about
56% of the electorate should be viewed as undecided, then we
have to assume that all the debates are likely to have signi-
ficant impact on the election. Furthermore, it is my personal
opinion at this point that none of the debates individually
will be decisive in terms of assessing the performance of the
President and Carter.
In summary, I think we should maintain our maximum effort for
all three debates, not just the first one.
CC: Bill Carruthers
43
Republican convention for an average of seven hours and thirty-two
minutes.
The four debates, said Nielsen, reached eighty-nine per cent of
television homes, attracting over one hundred million people in all,
about seventy million for each debate. The audience data from the
Nielsen surveys are presented in Table I.
TABLE I
NIELSEN AUDIENCE DATA
First
Second
Third
Fourth
Debate
Debate
Debate
Debate
Nielsen Total Audience
Thousands of homes
30,013
27,979
28,792
Per cent total TV homes
66.4%
61.9%
63.7%
Nielsen Average Audience
Thousands of homes
26,894
24,001
24,860
24,272
Per cent total TV homes
59.5%
53.1%
55.0%
Homes Using Television
66.3%
59.5%
63.2%
FORD LIBRARY is GERALD
Share of the Audience
89.7%
89.2%
87.0%
SOURCE: Nielsen Television Index, Reports of October 2, 1960
and October 16, 1960.
NOTE: Nielsen says of these figures that the appreciably higher-
than-normal level of Homes Using Television at the time of the telecast
(66.3%) indicated the exceptional interest in the debates.
44
Sindlinger Audience
Sindlinger makes his national projections from personal interviews
in selceted countries throughout the nation. Sindlinger' s figures are
confined to persons twelve years of age and older. The size of the
audience according to Sindlinger was: 1
First Debate
69.1 million
Second Debate
70.2 million
Third Debate
60. 4 million
Fourth Debate
70. 3 million
American Research Bureau Audience
The American Research Bureau's figures are national Arbitron
ratings, obtained by a combination of metering devices and coincidental
telephone calls in what they call a true national sample of United States
television. The figures include persons of all ages. Note the discrepancy
between Sindlinger and this report. 2
First Debate
75 million
Second Debate
61 million
FORD & LIBRARY 938810
Third Debate
70 million
Fourth Debate
63 million
1 Sindlinger Surveys," Broadcasting, November 7, 1960, pp. 27-29.
2
How Big a TV Audience the 1 Great Debates' Drew," Broadcasting,
November 7, 1960, p. 29.
TABLE 11-2. PER CENT OF ADULTS VIEWING (OR LISTENING To) DEBATESᵃ
188
Study
Name and
First
Second
Third
Fourth
One or
No.
Locale
Debate
Debate
Debate
All 4
Debate
Remarks
More
3
California Poll (state)
65
Registered voters
4
Canadian Broadcasting
54
% of TV households
(weighted)
5
Carter (local)
81
76
67
61
6
Creative Research
Associates (local)
71
64
64
7
Deutschmann (local)
75
44% stayed tuned throughout
The Debates in the Light of Research
9A
Gallup (natl.)
60
80
Registered voters
14
Kraft (natl.)ᵇ
65
66
65
87
18
Minnesota
88
20
Nielsenc (natl.)
66
62
64
60
90
% of TV households viewing
6 minutes or more
21
Opinion Research
66
49
51
49
1st debate viewing only; others
Corp. (natl.)
viewing plus listening
22
Roper (natl.)
56
83
30
Viewing only ("seen on
television")
23
Schwerin (local)
65
47
47
59
25
Sindlinger (natl.)
66
69
58
61
12 yrs. or older; approx. 45%
stayed tuned throughout
each debate
27
Survey Research
79
Center (natl.)
28
Tannenbaum (local)
87
KATZ AND FELDMAN
a. Viewing plus listening unless otherwise noted (see Remarks). Approximately 10% of total are listeners rather than viewers.
b. Figures for debates 2 and 3 on the assumption that those (about 1/3) who could not be contacted watched or did not watch in
same proportions as those who were contacted.
C. An estimate of proportion of total population viewing may be obtained by using the Nielsen estimate of total individual
viewers. Percentaging these on a base of 129 million (population of 12 years and over) gives figures of 60%, 62%, 64%,
54% for the four debates respectively.
189
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 9, 1976
MEMORANDUM FOR:
DICK CHENEY
FROM:
MIKE DUVAL
Male
BERALD FORD LIBRARY
SUBJECT:
DEBATES - AUDIENCE
Dick, I think it's important to put in perspective the
commonly-held opinion that the first debate is the whole
ballgame. I suspect that this opinion rests on two pre-
mises:
First, the size of the viewing audience will appreciably
diminish after the first debate.
Second, the voters' minds will tend to be made up by
watching the first debate, and especially by press com-
mentary following it, and this is not likely to be changed
by the subsequent debates.
I think it would be a great mistake for us to approach our pre-
paration for the 1976 debates by underestimating the importance
of the second and third Presidential debates. As a factual
matter, there is a real question in my mind as to whether
or not the size of the audience will, in fact, diminish for
the second and third debates. In 1960, the evidence is not
clear on this point (see attached) and, in any event, the
size of the audience we will have for all the 1976 debates
will be enormous compared to any other campaign event, so it
must be treated with the utmost seriousness.
If Daniel Yankelovich is correct in his assumption that about
56% of the electorate should be viewed as undecided, then we
have to assume that all the debates are likely to have signi-
ficant impact on the election. Furthermore, it is my personal
opinion at this point that none of the debates individually
will be decisive in terms of assessing the performance of the
President and Carter.
In summary, I think we should maintain our maximum effort for
all three debates, not just the first one.
CC: Bill Carruthers
43
Republican convention for an average of seven hours and thirty-two
minutes.
The four debates, said Nielsen, reached eighty-nine per cent of
television homes, attracting over one hundred million people in all,
about seventy million for each debate. The audience data from the
Nielsen surveys are presented in Table I.
TABLE I
NIELSEN AUDIENCE DATA
First
Second
Third
Fourth
Debate
Debate
Debate
Debate
Nielsen Total Audience
Thousands of homes
30,013
27,979
28,792
Per cent total TV homes
66.4%
61.9%
63.7%
Nielsen Average Audience
FORD LIBRARY i GERALD
Thousands of homes
26,394
24,001
24,860
24,272
Per cent total TV homes
59.5%
53.1%
55.0%
Homes Using Television
66.3%
59.5%
63.2%
Share of the Audience
89.7%
89.2%
87.0%
SOURCE: Nielsen Television Index, Reports of October 2, 1980
and October 16, 1960.
NOTE: Nielsen says of these figures that the appreciably higher-
than-normal level of Homes Using Television at the time of the telecast
(66.3%) indicated the exceptional interest in the debates.
44
Sindlinger Audience
Sindlinger makes his national projections from personal interviews
in selceted countries throughout the nation. Sindlinger' S figures are
confined to persons twelve years of age and older. The size of the
audience according to Sindlinger was: 1
First Debate
69. 1 million
Second Debate
70.1 2 million
Third Debate
60. 4 million
Fourth Debate
70.3 million
American Research Bureau Audience
The American Research Bureau' 8 figures are national Arbitron
ratings, obtained by a combination of metering devices and coincidental
telephone calls in what they call a true national sample of United States
television. The figures include persons of all ages. Note the discrepancy
between Sindlinger and this report. 2
First Debate
75 million
Second Debate
61 million
FORD LIBRARY is GERALD
Third Debate
70 million
Fourth Debate
63 million
1 Sindlinger Surveys," Broadcasting, November 7, 1960, pp. 27-29.
2
How Big a TV Audience the ? Great Debates' Drew," Broadcasting,
November 7, 1960, p. 29.
TABLE 11-2. PER CENT OF ADULTS VIEWING (OR LISTENING TO) DEBATES
188
Study
Name and
First
Second
Third
Fourth
One or
All 4
Remarks
No.
Locale
Debate
Debate
Debate
Debate
More
3
California Poll (state)
65
Registered voters
4
Canadian Broadcasting
54
%
of TV households
(weighted)
5
Carter (local)
81
76
67
61
6
Creative Research
Associates (local)
71
64
64
7
Deutschmann (local)
75
44% stayed tuned throughout
The Debates in the Light of Research
9A
Gallup (nath)
60
80
Registered voters
14
Kraft (natl.)ᵇ
65
66
65
87
18
Minnesota
88
20
Nielsenc (natl.)
66
62
64
60
90
%
of TV households viewing
6 minutes or more
21
Opinion Research
66
49
51
49
1st debate viewing only; others
viewing plus listening
Corp. (natl.)
56
83
30
Viewing only ("seen on
22
Roper (natl.)
television")
23
Schwerin (local)
65
47
47
59
25
Sindlinger (natl.)
66
69
58
61
12 yrs. or older; approx. 45%
stayed tuned throughout
each debate
79
27
Survey Research
Center (natl.)
28
Tannenbaum (local)
87
KATZ AND FELDMAN
a. Viewing plus listening unless otherwise noted (see Remarks). Approximately 10% of total are listeners rather than viewers.
b. Figures for debates 2 and 3 on the assumption that those (about ¹/₃) who could not be contacted watched or did not watch in
same proportions as those who were contacted.
C.
An estimate of proportion of total population viewing may be obtained by using the Nielsen estimate of total individual
viewers. Percentaging these on a base of 129 million (population of 12 years and over) gives figures of 60%, 62%, 64%,
54% for the four debates respectively.
189
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
October 1, 1976
FOR
MIKE DUVAL
FROM:
BILL CARRUTHERS
For your information.
Attachments
RATINGS FOR FIRST PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE
(Three Networks Combined)
Rating
Households (In Millions)
9:30-10:00 P.M. E.D.T.
57.6
41.01
10:00-10:30 P.M. E.D.T.
55.9
39.80
10:30-11:00 P.M. E.D.T.
52.7
37.52
11:00-11:30 P.M. E.D.T.
48.0
34.18
FORD & LIBRARY GERALD
Sile
10/18/76
Mike
Helen Collins called with the following information:
NEW YORK
Normal three network combined share is 68
Last Thursday it was
53
(this is considered pretty good)
LOS ANGELES
We don't know what their normal is
50
GERALD
FORD & LIBRARY
Last Thursday it was
CHICAGO
We don't know what their normal is
Last Thursday it was
39
(this is considered good)
p