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Second Debate, 10/6/76: Comment and Analysis
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Second Debate, 10/6/76: Comment and Analysis
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The original documents are located in Box 27, folder "Second Debate, 10/6/76: Comment and Analysis" of the Michael Raoul-Duval Papers at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library. Copyright Notice The copyright law of the United States (Title 17, United States Code) governs the making of photocopies or other reproductions of copyrighted material. Michael Raoul-Duval donated to the United States of America his copyrights in all of his unpublished writings in National Archives collections. Works prepared by U.S. Government employees as part of their official duties are in the public domain. The copyrights to materials written by other individuals or organizations are presumed to remain with them. If you think any of the information displayed in the PDF is subject to a valid copyright claim, please contact the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library. 2 uddebate CANDIDATE QUESTIONER QUESTION TIME RESPONSE TIME SUBJECT CARTER FRANKEL :42 2:48 DEMO FOREIGN POLICY FORD (R) 2:00 FORD TREWHITT :31 3:00 LOSING TO USSR CARTER (R) 1:51 CARTER VALERIANI :31 2:50 NATIONAL INTEREST CARTER VALERIANI :10 1:28 FORD (R) 2:07 FORD FRANKEL :53 3:03 RELATIONSHIP WITH RUSSIA FORD FRANKEL :20 :56 EASTERN EUROPE CARTER (R) 2:08 CARTER TREWHITT :33 2:05 WITHHOLD GRAIN FOR CIVIL RIGHTS CARTER TREWHITT :15 :26 FORD (R) 2:02 FORD VALERIANI :28 1:39 CHINA FORD VALERIANI :04 :29 CARTER (R) 1:25 CARTER FRANKEL :42 2:56 ARMS SPENDING CARTER FRANKEL :21 :53 FORD (R) 2:05 FORD TREWHITT :41 3:03 SALT FORD TREWHITT :30 1:21 CARTER (R) 2:05 CARTER VALERIANI :19 1:50 AMERICAN STRENGTH -2- CANDIDATE QUESTIONER QUESTION TIME RESPONSE TIME SUBJECT FORD (R) 2:02 FORD FRANKEL 1:17 3:03 MORALITY FORD FRANKEL :19 2:00 CARTER (R) 2:12 CARTER TREWHITT :20 1:25 PANAMA CANAL FORD (R) 1:07 FORD VALERIANI :17 2:13 MAYAGUEZ CARER (R) 1:27 CARTER FRANKEL :10 1:18 ARAB BOYCOTT FORD (R) 2:10 FORD TREWHITT :10 :37 MIA CLOSING STATEMENT: CARTER 3:15 FORD 1:08 FORD & LIBRARY 938870 Average length of first question: 39.7 seconds (10 questions) Average length of follow-up question: 17 seconds (7 follow-ups) Average length of answers to first question: 2:38 Average length of answers to first question (Ford) : 2:46 Average length of answers to first question (Carter) : 2:30 Average length of answers to follow-up question: 1:03 (7) Average length of answers to follow-up question (Ford) : 1:11 (4) Average length of answers to follow-up question (Carter) : 55.6 (3) Average length of rebuttal: 2:00 Average length of rebuttal (Ford) : 2:03 Average length of rebuttal (Carter) : 1:56 FORD LIBRARY is GERALD THE WHITE HOUSE washington October 22, 1976 Mike Duval Attached is a roughtcut at an assess- ment of the second debate which I did last night. I have sent a copy to Jim Reichley and will follow with Brent and Bill's edits early today. Bud 1080 LIBRARY in GERALA FORD & LIBRARY GERALD Assessment of the Second Debate The second debate on foreign and defense policy presented a striking contrast between the two candidates. This contrast -- drawn between President Ford's experience, his record of solid accomplishment and the specific measures he proposes for the future versus Mr. Carter's preoccupation with style and refusal to present substantive positions -- was framed in the opening question by Mr. Frankel. Mr. Carter was asked whether he would quarrel with a record that includes great progress toward peace in the Middle East, positive peacemaking initiatives in Southern Africa, significant achievements in strategic arms control negotiations, the end of our involvement in Vietnam and the termination of the draft. Mr. Carter did not criticize these measures except to say -- incredibly -- that they represent style and not substance. Faced with the President's unchallengeable past record Mr. Carter was no more successful in articulating coherent policies for the future. His remarks presented a series of contradictory aims -- He asserted the need to "increase our (military) capa- bilities to meet any potential threat" but at the same time: acknowledged that "our defense capability is second to none" proposed cuts in the defense budget of billions of dollars. - 2 - -- He stressed the need to strengthen relations with allies but proposed: withdrawals of US forces from Korea and Europe sympathy for communist participation in NATO FORD & GERALD LIBRARY governments peremptory unilateral actions against nuclear policies of France and Germany termination of arms sales to good friends -- He promised openness in the policy process, contradicting his earlier suggestion of "unpublicized talks" with the Soviet Union in the Middle East. In addition to being unable to reconcile these contradictory proposals, or to present coherent policy proposals, Mr. Carter resorted to deliberate distortions or erroneous representations of fact. -- He falsely charged complicity of the Ford Administration in the Chilean coup -- an event which took place almost a year before President Ford took office, and in which the Church Committee concluded the former administration was not involved. -- He asserted that President Ford's successful efforts over. the past 10 months to establish negotiations toward a peaceful evolution in Southern Africa represented last minute election policies. -- He denied statements which are on the public record such as his March 1975 proposal for a $15 billion cut in the defense - 3 - -- He quoted grossly inflated figures on Middle East arms sales and stated falsely that the majority of recent deliveries have gone to Arab countries. The facts are: 1964-68 1974-76 Israel 58% 61% FORD & GERALD LIBRARY Arab Countries 42% 39% On the few occasions when Mr. Carter made specific proposals, they reflected a shocking lack of understanding of fundamental diplomacy. - - He stated that he would meet any future oil embargo. with a comprehensive counter embargo of all goods and services, failing apparently to realize that: To be effective, it would have to be supported by the industrialized deomocracies of Europe and Japan to foreclose alternative sources. Such cooperation by nations whose reliance on Middle East oil reaches 90% is by no means certain. Even if supported by these countries, a counter embargo would cut off goods far less critical to Arab states than oil to the industrialized states. Such a move would provide a strong push toward the Soviet Union for the Arab states. Such a move would shatter hopes for further progress toward a Middle East peace settlement. - 4 - In contrast to Mr. Carter's failure to define constructive policies or to reconcile repreated inconsistencies, President Ford presented a solid record of accomplishment and a positive Froma & LIBRARY GERAL program for dealing with the complex problems before us. The President elaborated his policies for the next four years. -- His intention to assure a strong national defense based upon unchallengeable strategic and tactical forces in the Army, Navy, Air Force and Marines. 4- The closest possible relations with our allies - - Continued efforts to reduce tensions with adversaries -- Continued peacemaking efforts to assist in relieving human suffering and ending age-old conflicts, such as in the Middle East, and in Southern Africa. Determined efforts to find constructive solutions to the new agenda of critical issues before us -- increased production of food, cooperative solutions to environmental concerns, population growth, stable economic development and resource shortages. This is a contrastof unmistakable impact. It is a clear reflection of experience versus experiments, of performance versus promises. President Ford's record of accomplishment and specific program for assuring peace and progress in the years ahead is on the record. It is deserving of a renewed mandate. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON October 9, 1976 TO: MIKE DUVAL FROM: JOHN O. MARSH, JR Jack For Direct Reply For Draft Response X For Your Information Please Advise FORD i LIBRARY GERALD OCT 8 1976 TO Mike THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON October 8, 1976 MEMORANDUM FOR: JACK MARSH FROM: MILT MITLER that Jack, 100 law students at George Washington were polled on the last debate and came up with the following responses: - On the win/lost factor, it was close but with a slight edge to Carter although on dissemination of facts and information the President got the votes. - The greatest mistake made by the President was to remain on the defensive throughout. - The President should answer Carter's allegations and fabrications. But, he should answer them quickly and decisively and then move to a positive position. - When the President enters the stage and settles behind the podium, he should immediately write on his pad "Watch the Red Light", "Take the Offensive" and "Smile and Change Voice"! - The President should take notes and read them. - The President does not need to keep talking without a pause. Pausing would give him the time to consider what he is to say next - to muster his thoughts. - Carter's cynicism will lose him support in the long run. FORD is LIBRARY GERALD Sile October 16, 1976 MEMORANDUM TO FROM : MIKE ROB QUARTEL DUVALL Robefuantes SUBJECT : SECOND DEBATE ANALYSIS I am forwarding an analysis of the "image" communication of the second debate, conducted by Goldgaver at SUNY, for your information. There are several interesting points. FORD & LIBRARY GERALD State University of New York at Buffalo UNIVERSITY INFORMATION SERVICES October 14, 1976 TO: All Interested Media FROM: James R. De Santis, Director Information Services, SUNY/Buffalo RE: Communication Analysis of the Ford/Carter Debates Enclosed is a report on a communication analysis of the Ford/Carter debates done by members of the Department of Communication of the State University of New York at Buffalo. Should you require further information or personal interviews, the individuals involved can be reached at the following phone numbers: Dr. Gerald M. Goldhaber (716) 831-1607 (office) (716) 634-9254 (home) Dr. D. Thomas Porter (716) 831-1607 (office) (716) 691-7109 (home) Dr. Jerry K. Frye (716) 831-1607 (office). If we in University Information Services can be of assistance, you can reach us at (716) 636-2626. JRDS/km GERALD R. LIBRARY FORD THE CROFTS BUILDING AMHERST, NEW YORK 14260 TEL.(716)636-2626 THE IMAGE OF THE CANDIDATES: A COMMUNICATION ANALYSIS OF THE FORD/CARTER DEBATES I AND II by Gerald M. Goldhaber, Ph.D. Jerry K. Frye, Ph.D. D. Thomas Porter, Ph.D. Michael Yates, M.A. October 14, 1976 Department of Communication State University of New York at Buffalo After 500 combined hours of analysis, Professors Gerald M. Goldhaber, Jerry K. Frye and D. Thomas Porter, together with research fellow, Michael Yates, all from the State University of New York at Buffalo, Department of Communication, have discovered major verbal and nonverbal communication differences between the candidates in the first two Ford/Carter debates. The research was based upon an analysis of 4,458 specific nonverbal behaviors and 628 verbal references found in the 20,459 word transcripts. The researchers found differences in eye gaze, mouth expression, shoulder and head movements, speech rate, nonfluencies, use of specific supporting materials and character references. Since most viewers in national surveys conducted after the first two debates were unable to identify specific reasons why Ford or Carter "won," this research may provide useful clues for the study of candidate image in the remaining days of the campaign and in the third debate. Most of the surveys indicated that Ford "won" the first debate and Carter the second. National Surveys Debate I Who won? Debate II Ford Carter Ford Carter AP 34.4 31.8 34.6 38.2 Roper 39 31 30 40 Harris 40 31 (not available) " " Gallup 38 25 FORD & LIBRARY GERALD - 2 - It is likely, therefore, that the candidates' personal communication behavior in the debates influenced the perceived images of them formed by the TV viewing audience. Based upon an intense content analysis of the written transcripts and videotapes of the first two debates, the major findings of this research are: 1. Both candidates dramatically increased their amount of direct eye contact with the TV audience, with Carter looking at the TV cameras 85% of his time to Ford's 69%. Carter changed his direction of eye FORD & LIBRARY GERALD contact 3 times more often than Ford in both debates. 2. Both candidates doubled their amount of head movement and activity from Debate I to Debate II. In Debate I, Ford's head moved more than Carter, while in Debate II the reverse was true. Carter's head movements were more likely to be associated with tension than Ford's "expressive" movements. 3. Both candidates were expressionless for most of the time in both debates. While Ford smiled more in the second debate than he did in the first, Carter smiled twice as often as Ford in both debates while reducing the time he nervously pressed and licked his lips. 4. Ford moved his upper body from 3-5 times more than Carter in both debates. Both candidates reduced the average duration of these movements from about 8 to 2 seconds per movement. Ford's athletic build may have helped enhance his image as the more mature, self-reliant and stronger candidate, while the smaller, more slender Carter may be perceived as a more ambitious, thoughtful and sensitive person. - 3 - 5. Carter spoke about 163 words per minute (WPM) during both debates while Ford dropped from 133 to 128 WPM in the second debate. Carter's higher speaking rate, coupled with his frequent use of statistics, examples and high rate of nonfluencies may have decreased his effectiveness in the first debate. In the second debate, however, his fast speech rate, coupled with his increased generality and decreased nonfluency, may have contributed to his effectiveness and overall positive image (as measured by the polls). 6. In the second debate, Carter dramatically reduced his rate of nonfluencies from 9 to 2 per minute, while maintaining his faster speech rate. Ford's constant low rate of nonfluencies may have contributed to his high public ratings on knowledge and competence, whereas Carter's higher (in the first debate) nonfluency rate may have indicated more tension but also have positively influenced his high ratings for sincerity. 7. Ford, relying heavily upon detailed examples, was more specific than Carter in the second debate. Whereas in the first debate, both candidates used many statistics, very few were used in the second debate and comparisons and authority references were not used much in either debate. Ford's use of specifics may have helped his image as "competent" and "knowledgeable" while Carter's use of generalities (in the second debate) may have helped his positive ratings on "style" and "attitude." 8. In both debates, Ford relied more heavily on image-building positive references to his own character, reputation and experience while Carter chose to directly attack Ford rather than building his own personal image. Carter attacked Ford personally 2 to 3 times more than Ford did Carter, helping to place Ford on the defensive. (See Figure 1.) - 4 - Goldhaber, Frye, Porter and Yates conclude that their research is largely descriptive, but that it should provide a useful foundation for their subsequent analysis of the third presidential debate. They suggest that as you view the third debate, watch for the following: 1. Who looks more directly at you, the television viewer? 2. Who moves his head more often? 3. Who smiles more? 4. Who shifts his body more often? 5. Who speaks faster? 6. Who speaks more fluently? 7. Who is more specific? 8. Who builds his image more? attacks his opponent more often? The answers to these questions may provide a useful index of who will make the best television impression in the third debate in terms of the candidates' composure, debate strategy, sincerity and dynamism in short, his image as perceived by the American voter. FORD is LIBRARY 0ERALD - 5 - Eye Gaze Eye contact and eye contact shifts are associated with a communicator's directness (trustworthiness, honesty, competence) and a communicator's ability to put his thoughts into words. Increased eye contact can indicate individual ability to communicate meaning directly. Eye contact also gives an indication of the nature of the relationship desired by the communicator. Typically, a speaker who desires a close relationship with his listener will gaze more directly and more often at his listener. In Debate I Carter changed gaze direction almost 4 times as much as Ford, and Carter spent the majority of his time switching gaze direction from the podium to the panel to the TV cameras while Ford maintained almost constant eye contact with the questioners (about 90% of the time), virtually ignoring the TV camera (representing an estimated 100 million voters). In Debate II there was a dramatic change. Ford increased his eye contact with the viewers (camera) from about 10% of the time to almost 70% in Debate II. Carter also increased eye contact with the TV camera, from about 26% in Debate I to 85% in Debate II. Another implication of this finding is that as one increases eye contact with the TV camera, the person at home may feel that the candidate is speaking to them directly rather than merely being an observer to an "over-heard" discussion between the press and a candidate. Overall, Carter maintained direct eye contact with the TV camera more than Ford (Ford: 10% to 69% -- Carter: 25% to 85% of the speaking time). Carter changed his direction of eye contact 3 times more often than Ford in both debates. Both candidates thus dramatically increased their amount of direct eye contact with the viewers with Carter looking at the audience 85% of his time with Ford at 69%. (See Table 1 and Figure. 2 for data and illustration.) - 6 - Head Movement Head activity is typically an indication of a speaker's expressiveness or an indication of tension in a communicative situation. In Debate I, Ford's head moved more than Carter while in the second debate, Carter's head moved more than Ford. Both candidates doubled their amount of head activity from the first to the second debate. Both spent about 1/4 of their speaking time in the first debate moving their head at an average of 17 seconds per movement. In the second debate, both doubled the amount of head movement by reducing average duration from 17 seconds to 3 seconds per movement. Thus, in the second debate both candidates exhibited short, rapid head movement. Coupled with other nonverbal characteristics (fluency, speaking rate, eye gaze) we interpret these data to mean that Ford's head movement suggested expressiveness while Carter's movement indicated tension. (See Table 2 for the data.) Mouth Expression The expression on the mouth of a communicator (smiling, frowning) indicates several dimensions of emotion. Both candidates were largely expressionless with reference to the mouth. For example, in Debates I and II, Ford was expressionless about 95% of the time. Carter was expressionless about 80% of the time in Debate I and 85% in Debate II. Carter's famous "broad smile" occurred less than 2% of the time in Debate I and 1% in Debate II. Both Ford and Carter increased the number of "slight smiles" in Debate II (Ford: from 1% to 4%; Carter: from 7% to 10%). Ford "pressed and licked" his lips (a possible sign of tension) much less than Carter. In brief, Ford increased the number of smiles in Debate II, but Carter still smiled more in both debates. In fact, Carter increased the number of slight smiles by almost 100%. (See Table 3 and Figure 3 for the data and illustration.) - 7 - Upper Body Movement The manner and amount that a person moves his body communicates much about his self-confidence, energy or fatigue, status, defensiveness, and nervousness. As tension increases, body movements tend to be viewed as symptoms of several inner states. The shape of a person's body has a definite impact upon body movement and the perceptions of people about a communicator's credibility (e.g., "tallness"). In addition, body shape is often related to the temperament of the individual. No one person fits perfectly a given theoretical body type, but considerable information can be gleaned from just such an analysis. For example, Ford, whose body type is close to the "athletic" type, will probably be viewed as stronger, more masculine, better-looking, more mature, and self-reliant. Carter has a relatively "slender" body type which would be viewed probably as ambitious, younger, tense, cautious, thoughtful, sensitive, and gentle. These perceptions often play an important role in the development of a candidate's "image" and thus have a part to play in how votes are cast. Dispelling the "wooden Indian" image, Ford moved his upper body more than Carter in both debates. Ford decreased, however, his movement in Debate II. Carter's movement stayed relatively the same. In terms of the average length of movements, Carter and Ford reduced this length dramatically from 8 to 2 seconds. Carter stood erect about 90% of the time in both debates. (See Table 4 for the data.) - 8 - Speech Rate The average speaking rate of most Americans ranges from 125 to 150 wpm (words per minute). Speaking rate is related to the amount of information transmitted and perceptions of the competence and spontaneity of the communi- cator. Throughout the first debate Carter maintained a 164 wpm speaking rate compared with Ford's slower rate of 133 wpm. Neither candidate changed his speaking rate significantly from the first to the second debate. Because of Carter's faster speaking rate, he was able to use 15% more words than Ford with 10% less time (Debate II). Carter's fast rate of speaking apparently dispels the muth that all Southerners speak more slowly than other Americans--at least this is true with respect to Carter. Ford tended to speak faster when responding to Carter than when answering questions from panelists. This increased rate may indicate more tension. Carter, on the other hand, had varied speaking rates within the debates, but they were not functioned by the type of response (to panelists or to Ford). The rate of speaking and listener comprehension tend to be related. When specifics such as statistics and detailed examples were used in Debate I, Carter's faster rate of speaking may have been a disadvantage. In the second debate, however, in which Carter used fewer specifics, his faster rate may have increased comprehension. Ford's slower speech rate tended to be related to his use of fewer facial and head movements. Similiarly, Carter's faster speech rate tended to be related to his more frequent use of facial and head movements. (See Table 5 and Figure 4 for illustration and data.) Non-Fluencies Non-fluencies tend to indicate a speaker's state of tension as well as LIBRARY GERALD ? FORD influencing the way he is perceived by the audience. For example, more non-fluent speakers tend to be perceived as less competent and dynamic, but not necessarily less trustworthy. - 9 - Non-fluencies are those breaks or substitutions which interrupt the normal communication flow (e.g., "repetition, tongue slips, er, ah, em"). In Debate I Carter had 3 times more such non-fluencies than Ford (averaging about 9 non- fluencies per minute compared with Ford's 3½ non-fluencies per minute). In Debate II, however, both candidates had the same number of non-fluencies, averaging about 2 per minute. Carter's improved fluency in the second debate may indicate a more relaxed state; this is particularly so given that he maintained his faster speech rate throughout the second debate. While Ford's rate of non-fluencies tended to be evenly distributed throughout the debates, Carter was more non-fluent when responding to Ford than when answering panelist questions. In brief, Ford's low rate of non-fluency may have contributed to his high public rating of competence and knowledge while Carter's higher rate (in Debate I) may have contributed to his higher ratings on sincerity; that is, his communication appeared to be spontaneous. (See Table 6 and Figure 5). - 10 - Use of Supporting Materials Supporting materials are those forms of evidence or explanation which help a communicator clarify or support arguments. Supporting materials include statistics, examples, authority references, and comparisons. The extent to which the use of supporting materials is related to voting beha- vior is functioned by the particular desires of the individual voter; some people vote on the basis of well-documented arguments while others vote on the basis of their perceptions of the candidate's honesty and character. Both candidates relied heavily upon statistics in Debate I (economic and domestic affairs). Ford, however, tended to use more words in his statistical evidence. Carter, who used more overall supporting materials than Ford in Debate I, relied most heavily upon detailed examples. Neither candidate used many statistics in the second debate, where Ford, primarily through his use of examples, was the more specific of the two debaters. Carter, in fact, used specifics for only 22% of his time compared to Ford's use of specifics for 37% of his time. Ford's greater use of specific supporting materials in Debate II may have contributed to his high public ratings of his "experience and knowledge" while Carter's lack of specifics may have influenced his high ratings on "style and confident attitude." An Associated Press survey conducted immediately after the second debate stated that "more than 40% of those who said Ford won cited his experience and knowledge" as the reason for their decision. In contrast, "about 25% of those who said Carter won cited his style, particularly his confident attitude." (See Table 7 and Figure 6 for data and illustration.) - 11 - Character References Character references help a communicator to build a positive image for himself by association. Character references with negative connotations are often used to attack an opposing candidate. In both debates Ford spent about 25% of his time using image building self-references ("As President, I recommended "). Carter used this technique ("As Governor, I did " or "Harry Truman used to say...") half as much as Ford, relying more in both debates on negative references to Ford. Carter used this technique (attacking Ford) 3 times more than Ford referred negatively to Carter, helping put Ford on the defensive. Again, Carter tried to associate himself positively with former Presidents Kennedy, Johnson, and Truman while Ford praised the efforts of others like Dr. Kissinger. FORD & LIBRARY GERALD TABLE 1 DIRECTION OF EYE GAZES President Ford Governor Carter Debate I Debate II Debate I Debate II No. Avg. Gazes : of No. Avg. Gazes 08 of Type of No. Avg. Gazes % of No. Avg. Gazes in of Eye Lngth Per Spkng Eye Lngth Per Spkng Eye Eye Lngth Per Spkng Eye Lngth Per Spkng Gazes Gaze Min. Time Gazes Gaze Min. Time Direction Gazes Gaze Mine. Time Gazes Gaze Min. Time 36 6 1.11 10.5% 40 37.5 1.11 69.0% a TV Camera 83 6 2.59 25.8% 106 16.9 3.05 85.0% . 54 32 1.66 88.9% 40 16.2 1.11 30.0% & Panel 153 6 4.78 48.69 44 3.6 1.27 8.0% 1 I .03 0.19 3 .2 .08 0.1% o to Opponent 2 1 .06 0.1% 5 204 -14 0.9% 6 1 .18 0.5% 4 .5 .11 0.2% $ Podium 138 3 4.31 21.0% 88 1.3 2.53 6.0% 0 0 0.00 0.0% 5 2.1 .14 0.7% Ceiling 15 6 .47 4.5% 3 2.0 .09 0.1% 97 2.95 - 100.00 92 2.61 - 100.0% Totals 391 1199 - 100.0% 246 7.68 - 100.0% Note: Avg. Lngth Gaze (Average Length of Gaze) is expressed in the number of seconds. Table 2 Head Movements President Ford Governor Carter Debate IN Debate II Debate IN Debate II No. Avg. No. of is of No. Avg. No. of % of No. Avg. No. of % of No. Avg. No. of % of of Ingth Moves Spkng of Lngth Moves Spkng of Lngth Moves Spkng of Lngth Moves Spkng Moves Moves Per Min. Time Moves Moves Per Min. Time Moves Moves Per Min. Time Moves Moves Per Min. Time 76 18 2.31 71.29 117 13.2 3.31 73% Level 186 8 5.70 77.1% 100 12.7 3.12 66.0% 75 17 2.28 28.89 157 3.6 4.45 279 Moving 81 17 2.48 22.99 156 4.2 4.87 34.0% 151 - 4.59 100.09 274 - 7.76 100% Totals 267 - 8.18 100.0, 256 - 7.99 100.0% Note: Avg. Lngth Moves (Average Length of Movements) is expressed in seconds. GERALD R. FORD LIBRARY TABLE i MOUTH EXPRESSION PRESIDENT FORD GOVERNOR CARTER DEBATE # 1 DEPATE "2 2 DEBATE #1 DEBATE :: = No.oF Rate Avg. %of No. oF Rate Ava. %F in No. Rate AVA. %of Exprs. pr/min Length No. of Pate Ave. % of Expres. per/min Length Sph.Time exers. Permin conts SpriTime Expre Perform Spritime 56 1.7 30sec 94.8% 95 2.69 21sh: 94% NO EXPRESSION 170 5.21 isec 798 66 5.18 9/25 83% 0 -- ; - 4 9% BROAD .11 3sec 10 31 4sec 1.8% 14 44 2sec 1% SMILE 8 .21 2sec 9% 42 1.19 250c 4% SLIGHT 49 1.5 3sec 6.9% 95 2.17 2sec 10% SMILE 3 .09 2sec 3% 4 11 Isec 1% FROWN 13 4 3sec 1.8% 7 22 2sec 1% 3, 1% PRESS & 2.9 N) 5% 33 10 Lsee 4% 42 19 4sec 86 2.64 2sec 9.4% 93 4sec LICK - LIPS 100 3.04 - 100% 187 5.3 - 100% TOTALS 328 10.06 - 100% 362 11.9 - 100% TABLE 4 UPPER BODY MOVEMENT PRESIDENT FORD GOVERNOR CARTER DEBATE #1 DEBATE "2 DEBATE DEBATE 2 No.of Rate Avg. %of No.of Rate CATEGORY Avg. % of No.of Rate Avg. %of No.of Rate Avg. %oof Moves per/min Length Spk Spkiline Time Moves per/min Length SpeTimes Moves person Lenjth Sple.Time Moves perform Length Spk.Time MOVE 201 3,74 8sec 34.77 300 8.5 2sec 26% 54 1.66 7sec 10% 128 4.0 1200 9% ERECT 123 6.11 21sec 45.3 220 6.23 7/2sec 74% 37 1,13 49sec 90% 66 2.0 26/2500 91% 324 9.85 - TOTALS' 100% 320 19675 - 100% 11 2.77 - 100% 194 6.0 - 100% TABLE 5 SPEAKING RATE PRESIDENT FORD GOVERNOR CARTER DEBATE"1 DEBATE"2 DEBATE I DEBATE"2 2 TOTAL NUMBER 4885 4528 5824 5222 OF WORDS TOTAL 32ming 35 min, 32 min, 32 min, SPEAKING 52sec. 19 sec. 36 sec. 1sec. TIME WORDS PER 133.8 128.2 163.8 163.1 MINUTE TABLE E 6 NONFLUENCIES PRESIDENT FORD GOVERNOR CARTER DEBATE it 1 DEBATE # 2 DEBATE it 1 DEBATE #2 RATE RATE RATE RATE TYPE NUMBER PER NUMBER PER NUMBER PER NUMBER PER MINUTE MINUTE MINUTE MINUTE UH's 89 2.4 59 1.67 174 5.34 44 1.37 NON-UH's 34 1.0 17 .48 109 3.3 32 1.0 TOTAL 123 3.74 76 2.15 283 8.6 76 2.37 GERALD R. FORD LIBRARY TABLE 7 USE OF SUPPORTING MATERIALS President Ford Governor Carter Debate I Debate II Debate I Debate II No. of Rate % No. of Rate % No. of Rate % No. of Rate % Refer- Per Speaking refer- Per Sp refer- per Spk refer- per Spk ences Min. Time ences Min. Time ences min. Time ences min. Time STATISTICS 41 1.25 18.5% 13 .37 7.6% 74 .74 13.2% 11 .34 4.2% EXAMPLES 28 .85 8.6% 23 .65 26.3% 59 1.81 26.8% 18 .56 9.8% AUTHORITY 5 .15 5.4% 17 .48 1.7% 10 .31 1.7% 16 .50 1.9% COMPARISON 2 .06 1.8% 1 .03 .95% 6 .18 3.0% 11 .34 6.4% TOTALS 76 2.31 34.3% 54 1.53 36.6% 99 3.04 44.8% 56 1.75 22.4% TABLE 8 CHARACTER REFERENCES PRESIDENT FORD GOVERNOR CARTER DEBATE # 1 DEBATE #2 DEBATE 1 DEBATE "2 TYPE NUMBER RATE PERCENT NUMBER KATE PERCENT NUMBER RATE PERCENT NUMBER RATE PERCENT OF OF PER OF OF PER OF PER OF PER OF TOTAL OF OF REFERENCE REFERENCEMINUTE REFERENCE MINUTE TOTAL TOTAL SPEAKING REFERENCE TOTAL MINUTE REFERENCE MEANING MINUTE FREAKING SPEANING TIME TIME TIME TIME SELF 54 1.64 27% 25 .71 21% 14 43 9% 8 25 13% OPPONENT 22 .67 8% 17 48 8% 28 .86 12% 45 1.41 22% POSITIVE REFERENCES 5 15 17% 25 71 17% 9 28 2% 20 .62 4% TO OTHERS NEGATIVE REFERENCES TO 23 70 14% 8 23 1% 26 .80 13% 14 43 5% OTHERS TOTAL 104 3.16 51% 75 2.12 48% 47 2.36 36% 87 2.72 34% GERALD.R. FORD LIBRARY RESPONSE SCRIPT DEBATE #1 DEBATE #2 1A Carter responds to question on Unemployment Carter responds to question on Rep. Foreign Polic 1B Carter responds to follow-up on Unemployment 1C Ford rebuts Carter on Unemployment Ford rebuts Carter on Rep. Foreign Policy 2A Ford responds to question on Taxes and Ford responds to question on Communist success Budget 2B Ford responds to follow-up on Taxes and Budget 2C Carter rebuts Ford on Taxes and Budget Carter rebuts Ford on Communist success 3A Carter responds to question on New Programs Carter responds to question on National Interest 3B Carter responds to follow-up on New Programs Carter responds to follow-up on National Interest 3C Ford rebuts Carter on New Programs Ford rebuts Carter on National Interest 4A Ford responds to question on Nixon Pardon Ford responds to question on Soviet Union 4B Ford responds to follow-up on Nixon Pardon Ford responds to follow-up on Soviet Union 4C Carter rebuts Ford on Nixon Pardon Carter rebuts Ford on Soviet Union SA Carter responds to question on Gov't Reorg. Carter responds to question on Embargoes 5B Carter responds to follow-up on Gov't Reorg. Carter responds to follow-up on Embargoes 5C Ford rebuts Carter on Gov't Reorganization Ford rebuts Carter on Embargoes 6A Ford responds to question on Program Costs Ford responds to question on China 6B Ford responds to follow-up on Program Costs Ford responds to follow-up on China 6C Carter rebuts Ford on Program Costs Carter rebuts Ford on China 7A Carter responds to question on Energy Policy Carter responds to question on Defense Budget 7B Carter responds to follow-up on Energy Carter responds to follow-up on Defense Budget Policy 7C Ford rebuts Carter on Energy Policy Ford rebuts Carter on Defense Budget 8A Ford responds to question on Unemployment Ford responds to question on SALT 8B Ford responds to follow-up on Unemployment Ford responds to follow-up on SALT 8C Carter rebuts Ford on Unemployment Carter rebuts Ford on SALT RESPONSE SCRIPT PAGE 2 DEBATE #1 DEBATE #2 9A Carter responds to question on Taxes Carter responds to question on U.S. strength 9B Carter responds to follow-up on Taxes 9C Ford rebuts Carter on Taxes Ford rebuts Carter on U.S. strength 0A Ford responds to question on Anti-Wash. Ford responds to question on Foreign Internal sentiment Affairs OB Ford responds to follow-up on Anti-Wash. Ford responds to follow-up on Foreign Internal sentiment Affairs OC Carter rebuts Ford on Anti-Wash. sentiment Carter rebuts Ford on Foreign Internal Affairs 1A Carter responds to question on Fed. Reserve Carter responds to question on Panama Canal Board 1C Ford rebuts Carter on Fed. Reserve Board Ford rebuts Carter on Panama Canal 2A Ford responds to question on Intelligence Ford responds to question on Mayaguez Agencies 2C Carter rebuts Ford on Intelligence Agencies Carter rebuts Ford on Mayaguez 3A Carter responds to question on Arab boycott 3C Ford rebuts Carter on Arab boycott 4A Ford responds to question on M.I.A's 4C Carter rebuts Ford on M.I.A's EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE OCTOBER 8, 1976 6 PM EDT October 9, 1976 Office of the White House Press Secretary (Lawton, Oklahoma) THE WHITE HOUSE STATEMENT BY THE PRESS SECRETARY The debate on foreign and defense policy revealed a number of fundamental contradictions and inconsistencies in Mr. Carter's positions. In addition, he simply dodged a straight answer to many questions. Therefore, we know almost nothing more about Mr. Carter's foreign policy and defense positions than we did before the debate. Mr. Carter's rhetorical assertion of toughness toward the Soviet Union cannot be reconciled with his intention to cut the defense budget by billions of dollars, to withdraw U.S. troops from overseas, and to scrap major weapons such as the B-1 bomber. Mr. Carter's professed wish to strengthen foreign alliances clashes with his stated views on accepting communists in European governments, withdrawal of U.S. troops and his high-handed attitude toward dealing with our allies on nuclear proliferation. On Thursday, Mr. Carter told a group of labor leaders that he made no mistakes in the debate. That is not true. In his 18 opportunities to speak during the debate, Mr. Carter made at least 14 errors. Attached is a detailed fact sheet listing the factual errors and misrepresentations made by Mr. Carter, either from ignorance of the facts or deliberate misstatements. more FORD LIBRARY & GERALD FACT SHEET A compiliation of statements made by Mr. Carter during the debate, and the actual facts contradicting Mr. Carter's statements: Carter: "As a matter of fact, I have never advocated a cut of $15 billion in our defense budget." Facts: The Savannah Morning News on March 18, 1975, in a story by Richard Green, quoted Mr. Carter as telling the Savannah Rotary Club, "The Federal budget could and should be cut, especially the defense budget. Approximately $15 billion could be cut from the defense budget and not weaken this nation's military capability... 11 On March 20, 1975, the Los Angeles Times reported that Mr. Carter told a Beverly Hills news conference that "he thinks the Ford defense budget for this year could be cut by about $15 billion without sacrificing national security." This week, after the debate, the reporter for the Los Angeles Times confirmed that Mr. Carter had, indeed, made that comment on a $15 billion defense budget cut. **** Carter: "Our country is not strong anymore" (page 2 of transcript). "I think militarily we are as strong as any nation on earth." (page 25). Comment: These statements are contradictory. **** Carter: I never ever advocated a Communist government for Italy. That would be a ridiculous thing for any one to do who wanted to be President of this country.' Facts: On May 18, 1976 Mr. Carter was quoted as saying: "I believe we should support strongly the democratic forces in Italy, but still we should not close the doors to Communist leaders in Italy for friendship with us. It may be that we would be better off having an Italian Government that might be comprised at least partially of Communists tied in with the Western world rather than driven into the Soviet orbit irrevocably. 11 (The European Edition - Newsweek, May 10, 1976) more 2 Carter: "We are not respected anymore. " Recent quotes from foreign leaders: Prime Minister Cosgrave of Ireland " . the ties that were forged between us (the U.S. and Ireland) in the early years have not lessened with time. On the contrary, I believe they are today stronger and firmer than ever. " March 17, 1976 President Giscard d'Estaing of France "I do not think there has ever been a time when contacts between our two governments have been more frequent, consultation more sustained and cooperation more good- willed. May 17, 1976 Chancellor Schmidt of the Federal Republic of Germany "This is the third time in the past two years that I have come to the United States for talks with you, Mr. President, and I am not counting the meetings in other places. You, yourself, have made several trips to Europe, one of which was an official visit to the Federal Republic of Germany in July 1975, and I mention this because these frequent visits are a manifestation to the outside world of our mutual bonds and the closeness of our relations. "I don't think I am exaggerating when I say that at no time during the past 30 years have the relations between our countries been closer and has been cooperation between our two governments more trustful and direct than today. " July 15, 1976 Secretary General Luns of NATO "First of all, the situation in the United States itself, all of the allies have noted the improvement in the economic posture of the United States, which well compares to nearly all the allies. Secondly, if I may use the word, the recovery from the sense of disaffection which you felt two or three years ago in the United States and the fact that the Bicentennial was such a signal of success and this country has regained its unity of purpose. "Then, of course, the voices which were so loud two or three years ago about withdrawing troops of the United States from Europe have become very muted indeed, and the United States' commitment to the defense of the United States and the whole Alliance on the first line in Europe has been underlined by the fact that two combat brigades have been added to the strength of the allied troops in Germany.' * * * * more 3 Carter: "As a matter of fact, Iran is going to get 80 F-14's before we even meet our own Air Force order for F-14's." Facts: The Air Force has never ordered F-14's. The F-14 is is a Navy plane. F-14 deliveries have been and are scheduled as follows: Calendar 1974 Year & prior 75 76 77 78 79 80 USN 148 73 50 36 36 36 24 Iran - - 24 36 20 - - The delivery as divided between the United States and Iran meets the U.S. Navy's programmed requirements for the F-14. **** Carter: "In the case of the Helsinki agreement, it may have been a good agreement at the beginning but we failed to enforce the so-called Basket 3 part which ensures the right of people to migrate to join their families to be free to speak out. 11 Comment: The Helsinki Accord is not a treaty to be "enforced" upon a given date. It represents a standard of con- duct against which Soviet behavior can be measured over time. Progress has been made. A recent West German-Polish Treaty provides for emigration of 125,000 ethnic Germans to West Germany from Poland. Modest numbers of families are being reunited. Carter: "He has been in office two years and there has been absolutely no progress made toward a new SALT agreement." BERALITY FORD LIBRARY Fact: Totally wrong. In November 1974 President Ford and General Secretary Brezhnev made a historic agreement at Vladivostok, for the first time putting a ceiling on the nuclear arms race at equal numbers of systems and MIRV's. This agreement received the strong endorsement of the U.S. Senate in May 1975. more 4 Carter: "I understand that both the Department of State and the Defense Department have approved the accuracy of today's GAO Mayaguez report Facts: Simply not true. The only approval given was that the report be released with no security classification. * * * * Carter: "Now we went into South Africa late, after Great Britain, Rhodesia. We did not go in until right before the election.. 18 Facts: We began discussions with African leaders on the events and trends in Africa over a year ago, first with respect to Angola and subsequently concerning the problems in Rhodesia and Namibia. The President sent Secretary Kissinger on a formal fact-finding trip in April, 1976, at a time when many political observers noted its possible damage to the President's political standing. This was certainly not election politics. **** Carter: "During this current year we are shipping. to Saudi Arabia about $7.5 billion worth of arms. Facts: In FY 1976 we shipped $429.4 million of defense articles and services to Saudi Arabia. Weapons constituted 2.2 percent of that, or $8.4 million. In FY 1976 we signed Solan Agreements to seel $2.5 billion of defense articles and services to Saudi Arabia. Weapons con- stituted $247 million or 10 percent. Some of these goods and services, including weapons, may have been delivered in FY 1976. Non-weapons included such things as $150 million for construc- tion and $100 million in aircraft maintenance services. **** Carter: 17 during this current year we are shipping to Iran, or have contracted to ship to Iran, about $7.5 billion worth of arms. 11 Facts: In FY 1976 we shipped $1,232 billion of defense articles and services to Iran. Weapons constituted 41 percent of that, or $509.8 million. In FY 1976, we signed Sales Agreements to sell $1.3 billion of defense articles and services to Iran. Weapons constituted $419 million or 32 percent. Some of these goods and services, including weapons, may have been delivered in FY 1976. Non-weapons sales include such things as maintenance and tehnical services. more 5 Carter: "He has put pressure on the Congress, and I don't believe Mr. Ford would even deny this, to hold up on non- proliferation legislation until the Congress agreed for an $8 billion program for private industry to start producing enriched uranium." Facts: Wrong on all counts. Far from holding up legislation, the President pressed and personally worked with members up to the closing minutes of the Congressional session for passage of constructive non- proliferation legislation. The President's proposed legislation for enriched uranium included a proposal for expansion of Government-owned enrich- ment facilities. **** Carter: "...if the Arab countries ever again declare an embargo against our nation on oil, I would consider that not a military, but an economic declaration of war, and I would respond instantly and in kind." Comment: To be effective such a counter embargo would have to be joined by the industrialized democracies. Otherwise the Arabs could go elsewhere for arms, machines, food, etc. Assuming that were possible, is it in those countries' interest? Would the Arabs be more harmed by a loss of industrial goods and food than industrialized nations by a loss of oil? What effect would it have in driving the Arabs back to the Soviet Union? Needless to say, it would shatter any hope of a Middle East peace settlement. * * * * Carter: "Under the last Democratic Administration, 60 percent of all weapons that went into the Middle East were for Israel. Nowadays, 75 percent were for Israel before, now 60 percent go to Arab countries and this does not include Iran. If you in- clude Iran, our present shipment of weapons to the Middle East, only 20 percent goes to Israel." Facts: Carter is correct when he says 60 percent of all weapons (sales) that went into the Middle East were for Israel under the last Democratic Administration. Carter is wrong when he says nowadays 60 percent goes to Arab countries. The actual figure is 39 percent in FY 74-76 weapons sales. * * * * Carter: "The grain deal with the Soviet Union in 1972 was terrible, and Mr. Ford made up for it with three embargoes, one against our own ally in Japan." Comment: It is important the American farmer continue to be able to sell to foreign markets. It is important to assure that we do not allow high surges in foreign demand to drive up the price of bread in this country. more 6 To meet both aims requires a predictable market, so that farmers can plan and we can be confident of being able to meet foreign and domestic demand without price fluctuations. We achieved this with the 5-year agreement which went into effect October 1. It brings stability to the market by assuring the constant sale of at least 6 million metric tons of grain per year and requiring consultation before seeking to purchase above 8 million metric tons. **** Carter: "This (Chile) is a typical example maybe of many others, where this Administration overthrew a united govern- ment and helped to establish a military dictatorship. Facts: The Chilean government was overthrown by a military coup in September, 1973, almost a year before President Ford took office. Besides not knowing his chronology, Mr. Carter is totally wrong, as confirmed by Senator Frank Church's Committee of the U.S. Senate, which found the U.S. Govern- ment was not involved in the overthrow of the Allende Government. Mr. Carter's sinister suggestion that this government habitually overthrows other governments is unworthy of comment. **** Carter: "I have also advocated that we stop the sale by Germany and France of reprocessing plants to Pakistan and Brazil." Facts" This brazen and unenforceable threat stands in con- trast to Mr. Carter's comment that we must cooperate more clearly with our allies. In fact, President Ford is working with Germany and France and the other nuclear suppliers in a cooperative effort to resolve the reprocessing issue. **** Carter: "The Arabs have put pressure on Mr. Ford - and he has permitted a boycott by the Arab countries of American businesses in trade with Israel who have American Jews owing or taking part in the management of American companies." Facts: Boycott practices first took place in 1952. No actions of any kind were taken by the Federal Government to deal with the problem until 1969. President Ford is the first President to have analyzed the problem comprehensively and taken corrective actions. In November of 1975, the President directed the Commerce Department and all Federal agencies to prohibit compliance with discrimination practices in foreign trade. The Justice Department has launched the first anti-trust suit in a major boycott case. The President on Monday, October 4, signed the tax bill, which had severe penalties against U.S. firms that participate in the boycott or discrimination. more 7 On Thursday, October 7, the President directed the Department of Commerce henceforth to disclose those companies that partici- pate in the Arab boycott. The President has worked closely with the Congress to find an acceptable legislative formula for addressing the problem. President Ford has recognized that the ultimate solution to the Arab boycott issue is an end to the Arab-Israeli dispute. He has, therefore, moved responsibly to end discrimination against American citizens while avoiding any unilateral actions which would jeopardize the Middle East peace process. * * * * Carter: "One of the most embarrassing failures of the Ford Administration, is his refusal to appoint a Presidential Commission to go to Vietnam Laos Cambodia. and try to trade for the release of information about those who are missing in action Comment: This is a basic disagreement over policy. To "trade" for information on our MIAs can only mean trafficking in human lives and allowing Hanoi to play on the anguish and suffering of the survivors for economic and political gain. We will not do this. The Vietnamese have an obligation to provide a full accounting for all our missing and the President insists that they do so. We are willing to talk and that is why a U.S. negotiator has been designated for exchanges with the Vietnamese in Paris. * * * * Carter: "He (Ford) and Mr. Kissinger and others tried to start a new Vietnam in Angola, and it was only the outcry of the American people and the Congress when this secret deal was disclosed that prevented our renewed involvement. " Facts: Mr. Carter is either frighteningly uninformed or knowingly deceptive. FORD LIBRARY There was never, at any time, any thought of using U.S. forces, as was publicly stated. Eight separate Congressional Committees were fully briefed on our Angola proposals on 24 separate occasions. More than 24 Senators, 150 Congressmen, and 100 Congressional staff members were kept informed. U.S. efforts were designed to support majority rule in Angola. Mr. Carter implies he would acquiesce in Soviet/Cuban inter- vention in other countries' affairs. * * * * more 8 Carter: "We also need to have provided an adequate supply of enriched uranium. Mr. Ford, again, under pressure from the Atomic Energy Lobby, has insisted that this reprocessing or rather re-enrichment be done by private industry and not by the existing government plants.' Facts: Carter seems confused about whether he is talking about enrichment or reprocessing. But he is wrong either way. The President has requested approval from the Congress to build an addition to the government-owned Portsmouth, Ohio, plant to increase our capacity to produce enriched uranium. **** Carter: "As far as strength derived from doing what is right, caring for the poor, providing food, becoming the breadbasket of the world, instead of the arms merchant of the world, in those respects we are not strong." Facts: By any standard of measure, we are the breadbasket of the world, both in terms of commercial sales and of food aid to the world's needy. * * * * Carter: "Only in the last few days with the election approach- ing has Mr. Ford taken any interest in a non-proliferation movement." Facts: In the Spring of 1975, the President called the first of a series of meetings with the nuclear supplier nations, the countries whose cooperation is vital to any non-proliferation efforts. In the summer of 1974, the President ordered a comprehensive review of the entire subject in order to determine what further steps could be taken to strengthen non-proliferation policies. **** #### FORD i LIBRARY GERALD