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February 21, 1974 - Cabinet Meeting
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February 21, 1974 - Cabinet Meeting
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Memoranda of Conversations (Nixon and Ford Administrations)
Nixon Administration Memoranda of Conversations
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Soviet Union
Latin America
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File scanned from the National Security Adviser's Memoranda of Conversation Collection at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library
MEMORANDUM
CONFIDENTIAL
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
CABINET MEETING
February 21, 1974
President: Simon was going to talk about energy. Unfortunately he can't
be here.
There have been massive dislocations in the East which have not been
helpful. Public cooperation has been very good.
If there is any way to avoid rationing, we should. The need for rationing
has become much likely. Unless I hear a stronger case than I have, there
will be no rationing.
On the embargo. The two Foreign Ministers came here on behalf of the
f our. As a result, Secretary Kissinger will go to the Middle East, after
he goes to Latin America.
The talking papers for Latin America read like the same papers we have
gotten for years. The gap in the papers was they didn't deal with exprop-
riation. All these other things will take 25 years to work out. State people
don't realize this. The wooly heads think if only the government would put
more into Latin America, everything would be okay. We could put ten
times in and it wouldn't do it. The future of Latin America will be determined
to an extent, not by the tip of the iceberg - the governments -- but by what
private enterprise does. And the investment climate -- because of exprop -
riation, government policies, etc. -- is bad. We will go through the motions
in Latin America and offer them trade preferences. But what good are they
if they can't produce competitively?
Look at Argentina. It is where we were in the 30's. Back when they had
a responsible government they had a higher standard of living, but now they
are in bad shape. Until they get stability -- Brazil has had it, even though we
don't like it -- the investment capital is not going to go in.
Then Henry will go to the Middle East to get talks started. Now, what about
the embargo? They are not linked, but progress on the political front almost
inevitably will go hand in hand with economic progress. We are making
energy plans if the embargo won't be lifted, but we are doing everything
possible diplomatically to get it done.
DECLASSIFIED
CONFIDENTIAL
E.O. 12958, SEC. 3.5
GERALD
NSC MEMO, 11/24/98, STATE DEPT. GUIDELINE state Review 3/8/04
V
laby
MADA DATE 8/4/04
CONFIDENTIAL
- 2 -
On the energy legislation, it's a mess. I will veto a Senate kind of bill.
We should not link what happens on the embargo to the energy crisis. That
will take a bit of time.
Brinegar: Let me review.
What speed limits have done. Traffic deaths are down 25%, pedestrian
deaths down 30%. School children deaths are down from 98 to 57.
It is now easier to get to work in some of the big cities.
President: The farmers produced enough last year to have agricultural
exports equal our imports, but the 9 billion net agriculture exports is
equal to all our POL imports. This is an immensely productive area of
our economy. It's as important to us as energy.
What are the price prospects?
Butz: The CPI will be up 2. 5% this month. The supply of beef will be better
later in the last half of the year. Wheat is 2. 1 to 2.2 billion compared with
1.7 last year. Corn is about 6.2 compared to 5.8.
President: What will happen to the CPI from July through October?
Butz: The increases will level off in a month or two and maybe there be
some decline of meat prices in the last half of the year.
President: Cap, say a few words about the health program.
Weinberger: The program can be put in without taxes. I have stayed away
from giving overall costs, but the government part alone is $5.9 billion.
President: Jerry, give us some comments on Michigan.
Ford: It was caused by the deterioration of the economic situation. Michigan
produces most of the big cars, and that is where we got hurt by shutdowns.
Also energy and food costs. The Democrats moved in their top organizers --
we didn't get our own vote out, and there were some defections. They spent
50% more. Watergate did have an impact. Our candidate did not generate
an affirmative issue.
FORD
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
- 3 -
President: I will summarize -- all Cabinet members deserve high marks
for getting on the stump. Remembering the important thing is how things
are in September, and the two real issues will be economics - - energy
and food. If we have these under control by September we will be okay.
Ash: I am bullish. The last half of the year should see an upturn -- prices
down and employment up. If we are at a low point now, we are well off.
President: One last point -- Solzhenitsyn. Some thing Henry's reaction
was too tepid. But where were these people who are raising these points
in 1937, during the war, and when they attacked Dulles, etc. ? In the
earlier days he would have been liquidated. Not that the Soviet Union is
good -- the point is, what can we do about it? Some say cut off relations.
Then we have to raise the Defense budget by $100 billion. The real question
is should we have a voice and be able to talk to leaders in the Soviet Union
and the Peoples' Republic of China, or shouldn't we? Solzhenitsyn is not
Jewish, but here also there is much progress. Look at Stalin and the
Doctors' plot. The regime was basically anti-Semetic. The Jewish exodus
under detente has enormously increased. We have limited leverage. We
can cut things off; the defense budget would go up and the iron curtain would
come down. These things happen in all totalitarian countries. Back in
Dulles' days we caught hell for "peaceful liberation" in favor of "building
bridges. Now it is just the opposite. The question is, do we retain
communication so that in the Middle East crisis we can talk and perhaps
prevent a crisis? Do we try to limit the arms race -- and have trouble with
the Department of Defense -- or don't we? Do we try to limit conventional
arms or do we continue high defense budgets?
The continuation of detente -- it's a lousy word -- will determine whether
there is a chance for a peaceful resolution of problems in the Middle East
and Europe and a chance to get a handle on massive arms expenditures.
It would be easy for me to say we'll have nothing to do with them until they
change their internal system. But then we would have a massive arms race.
Even that would be okay if it would work -- but it won't. If a change comes
it will come gradually -- it may take a century. They at least let Solzhenitsyn
and his family out -- earlier the punishment was liquidation.
The one thing a totalitarian system must fear most is the friendship of free
nations -- not this hostility. Brezhnev is on a high-risk course.
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
- 4 -
If you get questions about our concern -- of course we are concerned.
But ask your questioners what they would do about it -- and at what cost.
If the critics say: Stop detente until they change their system, then we
will have to change our system. We are trying to avert a disastrous
nuclear conflict.
Detente is the only chance for a live-and-let-live world in the years
ahead. It makes it a little harder for Brezhnev and Moscow to be tough
externally and internally and that is progress.
BRARY
CONFIDENTIAL
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DECLASSIFIED
NSC MEMO, 11/24/98, STATE DEPT. GUIDELINES State Dev: as 3/8/04
E.O: 12958, SEC. 3.5
BY
Wr
NARA DATE 8/4/04
...
2
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SERALD n 1020