Memorandum Regarding the Saigon Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Station Chief's Assessment of the Current Military Situation in South Vietnam

This item is a National Security Council memorandum from William L. Stearman to Brent Scowcroft, and an accompanying memo from Scowcroft for President Gerald Ford.

Extracted text

OCR Page 1 of 4
Digitizedfrom Box 19ofthe NSA. Presidential Country Files: East Asia and the Pacific at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library SECRET 2 -- Moreover, Communist propaganda and secret documents clearly attribute the improvements in Communist fortunes to developments in the U.S. North Vietnam's authoritative Party journal "Hoc Tap" re- cently interpreted the cutback in U.S. aid to South Vietnam as a sign of U.S. impotence and unwillingness to reenter the Indochina conflict and indicated that this had figured centrally in Hanoi's decision to escalate the fighting in 1975. -- In summary, South Vietnam is inddeep trouble because of North Vietnamese determination to bring about a military solution. Unless the present trends are reversed, within the next few months the very existence of an independent on-Communist South Vietnam will be at stake. The emergency will not be like that now faced in Phnom Penh, because South Vietnamese leadership is stronger and geographic factors are more favorable. However, the ultimate outcome is hardly in doubt because South Vietnam cannot survive without American military aid as long as North Vietnam's war-making capacity is unimpaired and supported by the Soviet Union and China. FORD GEORGI