Memorandum Regarding the Saigon Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Station Chief's Assessment of the Current Military Situation in South Vietnam
This item is a National Security Council memorandum from William L. Stearman to Brent Scowcroft, and an accompanying memo from Scowcroft for President Gerald Ford.
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OCR Page 1 of 4Digitizedfrom Box 19ofthe NSA. Presidential Country Files: East Asia and the Pacific at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library
SECRET
2
-- Moreover, Communist propaganda and secret documents clearly
attribute the improvements in Communist fortunes to developments in
the U.S. North Vietnam's authoritative Party journal "Hoc Tap" re-
cently interpreted the cutback in U.S. aid to South Vietnam as a sign
of U.S. impotence and unwillingness to reenter the Indochina conflict
and indicated that this had figured centrally in Hanoi's decision to
escalate the fighting in 1975.
-- In summary, South Vietnam is inddeep trouble because of North
Vietnamese determination to bring about a military solution. Unless
the present trends are reversed, within the next few months the very
existence of an independent on-Communist South Vietnam will be at
stake. The emergency will not be like that now faced in Phnom Penh,
because South Vietnamese leadership is stronger and geographic factors
are more favorable. However, the ultimate outcome is hardly in doubt
because South Vietnam cannot survive without American military aid as
long as North Vietnam's war-making capacity is unimpaired and supported
by the Soviet Union and China.
FORD
GEORGI