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1525316
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USSR - State Department Telegrams: To SECSTATE - EXDIS (4)
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1525316
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document
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USSR - State Department Telegrams: To SECSTATE - EXDIS (4)
description
This file contains material relating to Radio Liberty.
collections
Presidential Country Files for Europe and Canada (Ford Administration)
Europe and Canada Country Files
subjects
Portugal
Germany (West)
Great Britain
Soviet Union
Jews
Fishing rights
Helsinki Agreement, 1975
Human rights
Radio
Middle East conflicts
Nuclear energy
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1525316
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1975-02-28
month
2
year
1975
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1975-02-01
month
2
year
1975
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nara-archive
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d1f302a15650c141
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The original documents are located in Box 20, folder "USSR - State Department Telegrams: To SECSTATE - EXDIS (4)" of the NSA. Presidential Country Files for Europe and Canada at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library. Copyright Notice The copyright law of the United States (Title 17, United States Code) governs the making of photocopies or other reproductions of copyrighted material. Gerald Ford donated to the United States of America his copyrights in all of his unpublished writings in National Archives collections. Works prepared by U.S. Government employees as part of their official duties are in the public domain. The copyrights to materials written by other individuals or organizations are presumed to remain with them. If you think any of the information displayed in the PDF is subject to a valid copyright claim, please contact the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library. Digitized from Box 20 of the NSA. Presidential Country Files for Europe and Canada at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library or STATE ORINA AMERICA Department of State TELEGRAM STATES OF Wt SECRET 5695 PAGE 01 MOSCOW 01590 041631Z DECLASSIFIED E.O. 12958, SEC. 3.5 51 STATE DEPT, GUIDELINES state visit 8/3/00 ACTION SS-25 BY be , NARA, DATE 7/31/01 INFO OCT-01 ISN-00 SS0-00 NSCE-00 /026 W 021922 D R 041527Z FEB 75 FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6892 AMEMBASSY LIBON IMMEDIATE STATE DEPT. DECLASSIFICATION REVIEW INFO USMISSION us NATO Retain Class'n Change to Declassify in part and excise as shown SERECT MOSCOW 1590 EO 12958, 25X( )( )( ) Declassify After EXDIS With concurrence (not)(obtained) PS by 8V Date 3/3/00 E.O. 11652: XGDS-4 TAGS: PFOR, EFIS, UR, PO SURJ: REPORT UN SOVIET FISHING FACILITIES IN PORTUGAL REF: LISBON 610 1. WE SPOKE IN SECURE CIROUMSTANCES FEBRUARY 4 WITH PROTUGUESE EMBASSY COUNSELOR DE ANDRADE (PRUTECT) REGARDING REPORT OF SOVIET FISHING FACILITIES IN PORTUGAL. ANDRADE SEEMED SURPRISED AND PERPLEXED ABOUT REPORT AND CLAIMED TO HAVE NO KNOWLEDGE OF ITS SOURCE. HE HAD JUST RECEIVED COPY OF DENIAL BY PORTUGUESE MFA THAT SOVIETS HAD SOUGHT FACILITIES FOR THEIR FISHING BOATS. SPEAKING FOR HIMSELF, HE SAID HE WAS QUITE SURE THAT SOVIETS HAD NOT REQUESTED FACILITIES. HE SAID THAT THERE ARE BILATERAL ARRANGEMENTS FOR SHARING OF FISHING TECHNOLOGY BETWEEN PORTUGAL AND THE SOVIET UNION BUT THAT THESE DID NOT PROVIDE EVEN FOR SHIP VISITS, MUCH LESS PORT FACILITIES. ANDRADE NOTED IN PASSING THAT SOVIET FISHING BOATS HAVE BEEN RECEIVING REPAIR FACILITIES AT SPANISH PORTS IN THE FORD CANARIES FOR SOME TIME NOW. BUT HE SAID HE HAD NOTHING & TO INDICATE THAT ANYTHING LIKE THIS WAS CONTEMPLATED BY PORTUGAL. GERALD LIBRARY 2. ANDRADE SAID TAT A MEMBER OF HIS EMBASSY HAS BEEN IN LISBON AND IS RETURNING FEBRUARY 5. WE DID NOT ASK NOT TO BE REPRODUCED WITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION OF THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY SECRET FORM DS-1652 29 TRANTMENT % STATE Department of State of I UNITED AMERICA HAVE TELEGRAM SECRET PAGE 02 MOSCOW 01590 041631Z WHO, BUT WF ASSUME IT IS MANUEL MARCELO MONTEIRO CURTO, A THIRD SECRETARY WHO IS THE ONLY OTHER OFFICER ON THE PORTUGUESE DIPLOMATIC LIST BESIDES THE AMBASSADOR AND ANDRAUE. ANDRADE HIMSELF HAS NOT BEEN BACK TO PORTUGAL RECENTLY. 3. PRAVDA, MOVING UNUSUALLY FAST, HAS ALREADY REACTED TO THE WESTERN PRESS STORIES. A COMMENTARY FEBRUARY 4, LARGELY DEVOTED TO ASCRIBING SINISTER MOTIVES TO THE NATO MANEUVERS NEAR PORTUGAL, STATES: "IT IS NOT BY CHANCE, FOR EXAMPLE, THAT THE START OF MANEUVERS IN THE ATLANTIC IS ACCOMPANIED BY EFFORTS OF WESTERN PROPAGANDA TO SPREAD LYING REPORTS ABOUT THE DESIRE OF THE SOVIET UNION TO GET WHAT AMOUNTS TO (CHUT LI NE) 'MILITARY BASES ON THE IBERIAN PENINSULA. " MATLOCK FORD & GERALD ANNUOIA NOT TO BE REPRODUCEI /ITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY SECRET FORM DS-1652 29 A of STATE EXE-S Department of State OF / AMERICA OZLINA TELEGRAM CONFIDENTIAL 8323 PAGE 01 MOSCOW 01602 0511542 17 ACTION SS-25 INFO OCT-01 ISO-00 SSO-00 NSCE-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 INRE-00 AECE-00 /026 W 034704 P R 0510227 FEB 75 FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6911 INFO AMEMBASSY PARIS CLIFT HORMATS e N F E I MOSCOW 1602 ELLIOTT FROEBE HORAN EXDIS KENNEDY LODAL PARIS EYES ONLY FOR AMBASSADOR STOESSEL LOW OBER E.O. 11652 GDS RATLIFF OAKLEY TAGS: PARM, TECH, IAEA, UR, US SWYSER SUBJ: TTBT/PNE NEGOTIATIONS SOUTHEN STEARMAN REF: MOSCOW 1566 PARRAR 1. TIMERBAYEV CALLED FEBRUARY 5 WITH COUNTER-DRAFT OF JOINT RELEASE. SOVIET EXT IS AS FOLLOWS: "ON FEBRUARY 10, 1975, THE USSR AND THE U.S. DELEGATIONS RESUMED NEGOTIATIONS IN MOSCOW ON QUESTIONS RELATED TO UNDERGROUND NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS FOR PEACEFUL PURPOSES. THESE NEGOTIATIONS RESULT FROM THE TREATY BETWEEN THE USSR AND THE USA ON THE LIMITATION OF UNDERGROUND NUCLEAR WEAPON TESTS OF JULY 3, 1974, AND FROM THE TREATY ON THE NON-PROLIFERATION OF FORD NUCLEAR WEAPONS. AS IS KNOWN, IN THE COURSE & OF THE SOVIET-U.S. MEETING IN VLADIVOSTOK, IT WAS AGREED TO CONTINUE AN ACTIVE SEARCH GERALD LIBRARY FOR A MUTUALLY ACCEPTABLE SOLUTION OF THE QUESTIONS RELATED TO UNDERGROUND NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS FOR PEACEFUL PURPOSES. THE HEAD NOT TO BE REPRODUCED WITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION OF THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY CONFIDENTIAL GG 7/31/01 FORM DS-1652 of STATE EXE-M Department of State ORLINA AMERICA TELEGRAM STATES OF CONF IDENTIAL PAGE 02 MOSCOW 01602 0511542 OF THE SOVIET DELEGATION IS I.G. MOROKHOV, FIRST DEPUTY CHAIRMAN, STATE COMMITTEE FOR THE UTILIZATION OF ATOMIC ENERGY, THE HEAD OF THE U.S. DELEGATION IS WALTER J. STOESSEL, JR., AMBASSADOR TO THE SOVIET UNION." 2. IN RESPONSE TO OUR QUESTION, TIMERBAYEV SAID THAT THE SOVIETS REMAIN WILLING TO DROP REFERENCES TO BOTH THE TTBT AND THE NPT, AS HE HAD EARLIER SUGGESTED. 3. AS TO RELEASE PROCEDURES, TIMERBAYEV SAID THE SOVIETS WERE OPEN-MINDED REGARDING THE HOUR OF RELEASE. HE ASSUMED THAT RELEASE WOULD BE SIMULTANEOUS IN MOSCOW AND WASHINGTON ON FEBRUARY 10. 4. SECOND PNE MEETING HAS BEEN TENTATIVELY SCHEDULED FOR 10:30 A.M., FEBRUARY 12, MATLOCK EXEMS BE FOPO NOT TO BE REPRODUCE WITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION = THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY CONFIDENTIAL THANTMENT OF STATE Department of State CELINA AMERICA TELEGRAM STATES OF CONFIDENTIAL 9916 PAGE 01 MOSCOW 01641 0517102 64 ACTION SS-25 INFO OCT-01 ISO-00 1026 W 039170 P 061614Z FEB 75 FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6928 C N I E N T MOSCOW 1641 EXDIS E.O. 11652: GDS TAGS: PINT, UR SUBJ: BREZHNEV'S HEALTH EX@-& FOLLOWING SUBMITTED FOR WHAT IT MAY BE WORTH. DURING EMBOFF'S CALL ON ROMANIAN EMBOFF FEBRUARY 3, ROMANIAN SAID THAT BREZHNEV'S ILLNESS OBVIOUSLY HAD TO BE MORE SERIOUS THAN FLU. HE THOUGHT IT WAS EITHER A COLD WITH SERIOUS COMPLICATIONS, A HEART PROBLEM OF SOME KIND, OR A RECURRENCE OF THE PARALYSIS WHICH IMMOBILIZED ONE SIDE OF AREZHNEV'S FACE SEVEN OR EIGHT YEARS AGO. ROMANIAN DID NOT CLAIM TO HAVE ANY SPECIAL KNOWLEDGE OF BREZHNEVIS CURRENT CONDITION. MATLOCK FORD GERALD THOUGH ? NOT TO BE REPRODUCED WITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION OF THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY CONFIDENTIAL GG 7/31/01 NB Feb. 6 7PM Coass free ea Sirmi S. 3:35 EXCES P.V. SERALD a FORD : NOT TO BE REPRODUCE WITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION : THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY DEPARTMENT OF state EXPIS Department of State of STATES UNITED AMERICA TELEGRAM SUNFIDENTIAL 9499 PAGE 01 MOSCOW 01825 1018342 45 ACTION SS-25 INFO OCT-01 ISO-00 SSO-00 1026 W 096393 P 101538Z FEB 75 FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7045 G N F D N I MOSCOW 1825 EXDIS E.O. 11652 GDS TAGS: PFOR, UR, UR, US SUBJECT: MFA COMPLAINT ABOUT RADIO LIBERTY 1, MFA USA DIVISION DEPUTY DIRECTOR KOMPLEKTOV, FOLLOWING PROTEST ON "DIALOGUE" TO DCM FEBRUARY 10 (SEPTEL), COMPLAINED ORALLY THAT RADIO LIBERTY TRANSMITS ANTI-SOVIET MATERIAL, TO WHICH THE SOVIET GOVERNMENT HAS REPEATEDLY CALLED US ATTENTION. KOMPLEKTOV SAID THAT THE COUNCIL WHICH RUNS RADIO LIBERTY IS FUNDED FROM THE FEDERAL BUDGET AND IS, THEREFORE, A FEDERAL AGENCY. HE TURNED TO CHETVERIKOV, CHIEF OF THE DIVISION'S BILATERAL SECTION, WHO SAID SPECIFICALLY THAT RADIO LIBERTY WAS MAKING SLANDEROUS STATEMENTS ON THE NATIONALITY QUESTION IN THE SOVIET UNION, STATEMENTS WHICH SOUGHT TO COMPLICATE RELATIONS BETWEEN VARIOUS REPUBLICS AND BETWEEN DIFFERENT NATIONALITIES. CHETVERIKOV CONTINUED THAT RADIO LIBERTY HAD BEEN CRITICAL OF LENIN ON THE NATIONAL QUESTION AND OF CURRENT SOVIET LEADERS AS WELL, PICKING UP THE THEME, KOMPLEKTOV CITED THE UKRAINE AND CENTRAL ASIA AS FOCI FOR SUCH "SLANDERS." HE SAID THAT THEY HAD EVOKED INDIGNATION AMONG THE SOVIET PEOPLE, WHO ASKED HOW FORD SUCH THINGS COULD BE BROADCAST WHEN THE U.S. LEADERS SPEAK OF THEIR DESIRE FOR BETTER BILATERAL RELATIONS. HE NOTED THAT, WHILE THIS WAS NOT AN OFFICIAL PROTEST, THE BEHAVIOR OF RADIO LIBERTY DID NOT CORRESPOND TO IMPROVED BILATERAL RELATIONS AND GERALD ? LIBRARY MEASURES SHOULD BE TAKEN TO CURB THE ABUSE CITED. 2. DCM REMARKED IN RESPONSE THAT THE COMMISSION ON INTERNATIONAL BROADCASTING IS AN INDEPENDENT BODY, CREATED AND FINANCED BY NOT TO BE REPRODUCED WITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION OF THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY CONFIDENTIAL 3) GG 7/31/01 FORM DS-1652 9.66 DEPARTMENT OF STATE Department of State of STATES UNITED AMERICA TELEGRAM CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 MOSCOW 01825 101834Z CONGRESS, AND THAT THE OPERATION OF THE RADIO STATION IS SOLELY UNDER THE CONTROL OF THAT COMMISSION AND NOT SUBJECT TO THE DEPARTMENT'S POLICY GUIDANCE. DCM ADDED THAT HE COULD NOT ACCEPT EXCLUS KOMPLEKTOV'S DESCRIPTION OF THE CHARACTER OF THE TRANSMISSIONS, NOTING THAT IT IS OF COURSE IMPOSSIBLEFOR US HERE TO BE AWARE OF THE CONTENT OF RADIO LIBERTY BROADCASTS BECAUSE OF JAMING, HE PROMISED, HOWEVER, TO CONVEY KOMPLEKTOVIS VIEWS TO WASHINGTON. 3, KOMPLEKTOV CONCLUDED BY NOTING THAT HE DID NOT EXCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SOVIET GOVERNMENT'S RAISING THE COMPLAINT ABOUT RADIO LIBERTY ON THE OFFICIAL LEVEL. 4. COMMENT: SINCE KOMPLEKTOV'S COMMENT WAS CLEARLY TAGGED UNOFFICIAL, THERE WOULD SEEM LITTLE POINT IN REPLYING. 5. DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS USIA AND MUNICH. STOESSEL NOTE BY OC/T: NOT PASSED USIA, MUNICH. FORD LIBRARY & NOT TO BE REPRODUCED OF THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY FORM DS-1652 9.66 DEPARTMENT OF STATE WH Department of State of I UNITED MAKES AMERICA TELEGRAM CONFIDENTIAL 5086 PAGE 01 MOSCOW 01961 1217372 46 ACTION SS-25 EXCES INFO OCT-01 IS0-00 SSO-00 NSCE-00 1026 W 128561 n 1217157 FEB 75 FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7146 C N N ₹ 1 MOSCOW 1961 EXDIS E.O. 11652 GDS TAGS: PFOR, PINT, UR, UK SUBJECT: POSSIBLE BREZHNEV-WILSON MEETING EXPIR 1. FINNISH EMOFF TOOK EMBASSY OFFICER ASIDE AT RECEPTION FEBRUARY 12 AND SAID THAT SERGEY LAPIN, CHAIRMAN OF THE USSR STATE COMMITTEE FOR TV AND RADIO BROADCASTING, AND A CPSU CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEMBER, TOLD THE VISITING FINNISH TELEVISION CHIEF ON FEBRUARY 11 THAT BREZHNEV WOULD DEFINITELY MEET WITH PRIME MINISTER WILSON AND THAT THE MEETING WOULD BE SHOWN ON SOVIET TELEVISION. 2. AS OF THIS WRITING, HOWEVER, THE BRITISH EMBASSY HAS NOT BEEN ASSURED BY THE SOVIETS OF A BREZHNEV-WILSON MEETING. ALL THE SOVIETS HAVE TOLD THE BRITISH IS THAT, IF BREZHNEV IS IN MOSCOW, HE WILL MEET WILSON. STOESSEL GERALD NOT TO BE REPRODUCED WITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION OF THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY CONF IDEN FORM DS-1652 GG 7/31/01 OF STATE WIT Department of State OF I AMERICA TELEGRAM CONFIDENTIAL 5436 PAGE 01 MOSCOW 01958 01 OF 03 121930Z 42 ACTION SS-25 INFO OCT-01 ISO-00 SS0-00 1026 W 130292 R 121544Z FEB 75 FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW TO SECSTATE WASHDC 7141 AMEMBASSY BELGRADE AMEMBASSY BERLIN USMISSION USBERLIN AMEMBASSY BONN AMEMBASSY BUCHAREST AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST USMISSION GENEVA AMCONSUL HONG KONG AMCONSUL LENINGRAD AMEMBASSY LONDON AMCONSUL MINICH USMISSION NATO AMEMBASSY PARIS USLO PEKING AMEMBASSY PRAGUE AMEMBASSY ROME AMEMBASSY SOFIA AMEMBASSY TAIPEI AMEMBASSY TOKYO USMISSION USUN NY USDEL MBFR VIENNA AMEMBASSY WARSAW G 0 N T D E N SECTION 1 OF 3 MOSCOW 1958 EXDIS FORD & E. O. 11652: GDS TAGS: PFOR, PINT, UR SURJ: FURTHER THOUGHTS ON BREZHNEVIS FUTURE GERALO LIBRARY DEPT PLEASE PASS SECRETARY NOT TO BE REPRODUCED WITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION OF THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY GONF IDENTIAL a Gla 7/31/01 of STATE Department of State ORLINA ( TELEGRAM I OF CONF IDENTIAL PAGE 02 MOSCOW 0 01958 01 OF 03 121930Z GENEVA FOR USDEL CSCE REF: MOSCOW 1127 1. SUMMARY: WHETHER OR NOT BREZHNEV RE-EMERGES DURING PRIME MINISTER WILSON'S VISIT, HE CANNOT PUT OFF FUNDAMENTAL DECISIONS ABOUT HIS FUTURE MUCH LONGER AND THE QUESTION OF HIS EVENTUAL SUCCESSION MUST BE PARAMOUNT IN THE MINDS OF ALL HIS COLLEAGUES. A SERIRES OF INTERNATIONAL EVENTS - VE DAY, THE WARSAW PACT'S 20TH ANNIVERSARY, A U.S. SOVIET SUMMIT, THE CSCE THIRD STAGE, AND A EUROPEAN CP CONFERENCE -- BEGINS IN MAYI ALL OF THESE WOULD ORDINARILY REQUIRE BREZHNEV'S PRESENCE. MOREOVER, PREPARATIONS FOR THE 25TH PARTY CONGRESS WILL MEAN THAT AT LEAST PRELIMINARY INTERNAL POLITICAL JOCKEYING SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY MID-YEAR. IN HIS EFFORT TO ASSURE HIS PLACE IN HISTORY, BREZHNEV WOULD SEEM TO HAVE THREE BASIC OPTIONS, ALL EX@-& OF THEM. WITH SERIOUS DRAWBACKS FROM HIS OWN POINT OF VIEW: (1) TO MAKE NO PLANS FOR HIS SUCCESSION AND HANG ON AS LONG AS HE CANI (2) TO RETIRE IN FAVOR OF A COLLECTIVITY OF SENIORS, WITH KIRILENKO AS HIS DIRECT SUCCESSOR AS PARTY FIRST SECRETARY; AND (3) TO LIMIT HIS FUNCTIONS AND CONCENTRATE ON THE PARTY CONGRESS AND PERHAPS ON GROOMING A YOUNGER SUCCESSOR. 2. BREZHNEV'S ILLNESS IS IN ANY CASE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY THE POLITICAL SPARRING THAT COULD BE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY A PRE- PARTY CONGRESS YEAR. WE HAVE SEEN ALMOST NO OVERT SIGN THAT THIS PROCESS, IF IT HAS BEGUN AT ALL, IS AS YET EXPRESSING ITSELF IN POLICY TERMS. OUR TENTATIVE CONCLUSION AT THIS POINT IS THAT, HOWEVER THE SUCCESSION STRUGGLE DEVELOPS, IT IS NOT LIKELY THIS YEAR TO AFFECT THE OVERALL SOVIET COMMITMENT TO DETENTE. WE CONTINUE TO FEEL THAT THE DANGERS FOR THE U.S. ARE RATHER THAT SUCCESSION PROBLEMS COULD AFFECT THE DEGREE OF DETERMINATION AND ENERGY WITH WHICH THE REGIME PURSUES DETENTE AND THUS COULD MAKE IT PROGRESSIVELY LESS CAPABLE OF THE HARD R. FORD DECISIONS THAT MAY BE NECESSARY TO KEEP UP THE MOMENTUM OF IMPROVING BILATERAL RELATIONS. END SUMMARY. GERALD LIBRARY 3. DESPITE EARLIER ASSURANCES FROM SOVIET AND OTHER SOURCES THAT BREZHNEV IS ON THE MEND, HE HAS NOT YET APPEARED PUBLICLY AND WE CONTINUE TO HEAR VAROUS REPORTS AND RUMORS THAT HE IS SUFFERING FROM A DISEASE WHICH IS SEVERE ENOUGH TO LIMIT HIS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED ITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION C" THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY CONF IDEN' OF STATE UNITED MARKS Department of State TELEGRAM STATE or CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 MOSCOW 01958 01 OF 03 121930Z CAPACITIES IN THE FUTURE. HIS APPEARANCE IN GOOD FORM FOR PRIME MINISTER WILSON, WHO ARRIVES THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 13, WOULD REDUCE BUT NOT END SPECULATION ABOUT HIS FUTURE. HIS NON-APPEARANCE DURING WILSON'S STAY WOULD, OF COURSE, DRIVE THAT SPECULATION TONEW HEIGHTS. 4. A SERIES OF EVENTS SCHEDULED FOR 1975 WILL CALL FOR TOP= LEVEL SOVIET LEADERSHIP PARTICIPATON. ON THE EXTERNAL SIDE ALONE, THE CALENDAR INCLUDES CELEBRATIONS OF THE 30TH ANNIVER- SARY OF VE DAY, THE WARSAW PACT 20TH ANNIVERSARY, A SOVIET- AMERICAN SUMMIT, A SUMMIT UPON CONCLUSION OF CSCE, AND A MEETING OF EUROPEAN COMMUNIST PARTIES. IN ORDINARY TIMES ALL OF THESE EVENTS WOULD CALL FOR THE PARTICIPATION OF BREZHNEV PERSONALLY. 5. EVEN MORE IMPORTANT FOR BREZHNEV'S POSITION IN THE SOVIET LEADERSHIP, PREPARATIONS FOR THE 25TH PARTY CONGRESS MUST BEING SOON. IF PAST PERFORMACE IS ANY GUIDE, THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF DOMESTIC SPEECHES BEGINNING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THIS YEAR AND LEADING UP TO THE QUADRENNIAL ELECTIONS OF UNION-REPUBLIC SUPREME SOVIETS. THEY CYCLE OF PARTY ELECTIONS WHICH CULMINATES IN THE 25TH PARTYCONGRESS SHOULD BEGIN IN THE FALL. IF THE CONGRESS IS NOT TO BE POSTPONED BEYOND ITS STATUTORY DEADLINE OF APRIL 1976, THE PRELIMINARY POLITICAL JOCKEYING SHOULD BE LINED UP IN A MANNER SATISFACTORY TO THE POLITBURO MAJORITY BY MID-YEAR. TO KEEP TO THIS TIMETABLE, THE SOVIET LEADERSHIP MUST THEREFORE APPROACH FUNDAMENTAL DECISIONS ON BREZHNEV'S FUTURE IMMEDIATELY AND ADLPT DECISIONS VERY SOON IF ANY IMPORTANT CHANGES ARE TO BE MADE. THE HIERARCHICAL ELECTIONS FROM BOTTOM TO TOP OF THE CPSU, WILL PROBABLY NOT BE INITIATED UNTIL THE PROBABLE OUTCOME OF POLITICAL SUCCESSION IS CLEAR AND ACCEPTABLE. ELECTONS BEFORE A PARTY CONGRESS TAKE A MINIMUM OF SIX MONTHS, FORD EXEMS AND THE PROCESS SHOULD GET UNDERWAY IN SEPTEMBER 1975, SHORTLY & AFTER THE END OF THE JULY-AUGUST LEADERSHIP VACATIONS. THE LEADERSHIP will ENGAGE IN A SERIES OF STUMPING SPEECHES FOR GERALD LIDRARY RSFSR AND REPUBLIC SUPREME SOVIET ELECTIONS BY MID-YEAR, JUST AS IT DID IN 1974 FOR THE USSR SUPREME SOVIET. FACED WITH A MID-SUMMER LEGISLATIVE SESSION COMING PERHAPS IN JULY, THE LEADER- SHIP WILL FIND ITSELF COPING WITH SEVERAL DEMANDS ON ITS TIME AND ENERGY, NOT LEAST OF WHICH WILL BE THE SOVIET-AMERICAN SUMMIT. NOT TO BE REPRODUCED WITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION OF THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY CONFIDENTIAL or and of I INTERNAL CELINA AMERICA Department of State TELEGRAM CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 MOSCOW 01958 01 OF 03 121930Z NOTE BY OC/T: NOT PASSED. EXCES LIBRARY GERALD R. ROBO NOT TO BE REPRODUCED ITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION C THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY CONFIDENTIAL UPARTMENT OF STATE Department of State of I ORING AMERICA TELEGRAM CONFIDENTIAL 5608 PAGE 01 MOSCOW 01958 02 OF 03 122025Z 54 ACTION SS-25 INFO OCT-01 TSO-00 SSD-00 1026 W 000076 R 1215447 FEB 75 FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW TO SECSTATE WASHDC 7142 AMEMBASSY BELGRADE AMEMBASSY BERLIN USMISSION USBERLIN AMEMBASSY BONN AMEMBASSY BUCHAREST AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST USMISSION GENEVA AMCONSUL HONG KONG EX@-& AMOUNSUL LENINGRAD AMEMBASSY LONDON AMOUNSUL MINICH USMISSION NATO AMEMBASSY PARIS USI.O PEKING AMEMBASSY PRAGUE AMEMBASSY ROME AMEMBASSY SOFIA AMEMBASSY TAIPEI AMEMBASSY TOKYO USMISSION USUN NY USDEL MBFK VIENNA AMEMBASSY WARSAW C N D E I SECTION 2 OF 3 MOSCOW 1958 FORD LISTARY & GERALD EXDIS 6. BREZHNEV HIMSELF MUST HAVE THESE TEMPURAL CONSIDERATIONS VERY MUCH IN MIND. WE ASSUME THAT HIS GROWING PREOCCUPATION, AS THE DAYS DWINDLE, IS TO GUARANTEE HIMSELF AN HONORED PLACE IN SOVIET HISTORY -- TO ENSURE THAT, UNLIKE ALL HIS PREDECESSORS EXCEPT LENIN, EVEN AFTER HIS RETIREMENT OR DEATH, HE WILL REMAIN LEONID ILYICH AND NOT BECOME LEONID WHO. IT SEEMS TO US NOT TO BE REPRODUCED WITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION OF THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY COMFIDENTIAL FORM DS-1652 or STATE Department of State OF AMERICA CELINA NAME TELEGRAM FORD & BERALD LIBRARY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 MOSCOW 01958 02 OF 03 122025Z THAT HE HAS THREE, AND POSSIBLE ONLY THREE GENERAL OPTIONS. A. FIRST, THE IMMORTALITY OPTION: BREZHNEV ACTS AS IF HE WILL NEVER DIE, MAKES NO PLANS FOR HIS SUCCESSION, AND HANGS ON TO AS MUCH POWER AS HE CAN. THIS IS THE OPTION MOST FAVORED BY AGING DICTATORS THROUGHOUT HISTORY. IT IS THE MOST SEDUCTIVE OPTION, BECAUSE IT INVOLVES NO DECISION TO CHANGE THE STATUS QUO AND NO MANEUVERING WITHIN THE PARTY; IN FACT, IT REQUIRES NO CHOICE AT ALL. IT ALSO WOULD SIT BEST WITH BREZHNEV'S COLLEAGUES AND WOULD BE MOST COMPATIBLE WITH HIS DWN PENCHANT FOR CAUTION AND CONSENSUS. ON THE OTHER HAND, BREZHNEV WOULD PROBABLY NOT BE ABLE TO EXERCISE THIS OPTION FOR LONG UNLESS HE REMAINED NEAR THE PEAK OF HIS HEALTH AND ENERGY. IF HIS ENERGIES BEGAN TO FAIL APPRECIABLY, HE WOULD BE VULNERABLE TO HAVING PERSONNELANO POLICY DECISIONS TAKEN OUT OF HIS HANDS. MOREOVER, AS LONG AS HE RETAINED HIS FORMAL POSITION, IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT FOR HIM TO GET THE POLITBURO TO ACCEPT ANY WIELDING OF HIS POWERS BY A FAVORED SUBORDINATE (E.G., KIRILENKO), THUS, THE IMMORTALITY OPTION, PERHAPS THE EASIEST AND MOST NATURAL ONE FOR BREZHNEV TO CHOOSE, WOULD PROBABLY ALSO BE THE ONE LEAST LIKELY TO ASSURE HIM A PLACE IN THE HISTORY BOOKS. B. SECOND, THE GOLD WATCH OPTION: BREZHNEV GOES INTO HONORABLE RETIREMENT IN FAVOR OF KIRILENKU OR A COLLECTIVITY OF SENIORS. THIS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY OPTION IF BREZHNEV FELT HE WERE SERIOUSLY ILL AND WANTED HIS DEPARTURE TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A MINIMUM OF INTERNAL TURMOIL. ASSUMING BREZHNEV'S POOR HEALTH PREVENTED HIM FROM GROOMING A SUCCESSOR OF A YOUNGER GENERATION (SEE OPTION THREE), HE MIGHT FEEL THAT HIS BEST CHANCE FOR A PASSPORT TO THE PANTHEON LAY IN PASSING THE MANTLE VOLUNTARILY TO KIRILENKO OR, A LESS APPEALING ALTERNATIVE, TO SOME COMBINATION OF THE FOUR SENIOR LEADERS (KIRILENKO, PODGORNY, KOSYGIN, AND SUSLOV). THE EAST EUROPEAN PARALLES (EnG., ULBRICHT) ARE NOT TOO AUSPICIOUS, BUT IN CIRCUMSTANCES OF GRAVE ILLNESS BREZHNEV MIGHT SEE THIS AS HIS ONLY CHOICE. IT WOULD AT LEAST HAVE THE ADVANTAGE OF GIVING A FAVORITE LIKE KIRILENKO A CLEARER MANDATE TO WHEEL AND DEAL THAN HE WOULD HAVE IF BREZHNEV HELD ONTO THE TRAPPINGS OF OFFICE AND POWER. C. THIRD, THE OLYPIAN OPTION: BREZHNEV RESTIRCTS HIS FUNCTIONS AND CONCENTRATES ON BIG DECISIONS AND ON PREPARING THE NOT TO BE REPRODUCED THOUJNEYE AUTHORIZATION THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY FORM OF STATE Department of State OF i CELINA AMERICA TELEGRAM CONFIDENTIAL EXEMS EXPIN PAGE 03 MOSCOW 01958 02 OF 03 1220252 WAY FOR A YOUNGER SUCCESSOR WHO WOULD CARRY ON THIS NAME AND HIS PULICIES AFTER THE 25TH PARTY CONGRESS. THIS OPTION WOULD GIVE BREZHNEV THE BEST CHANCE OF REAL IMMORTALITY, BUT HE WOULD HAVE TO BE ABLE TO EMPLOY HIS FULL POLITICAL SKILLS IN ORDER TO BRING IT OFF. A POSSIBLE SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR BREZHNEV -- PERMAPS AFTER A TRIUMPHAL U.S. SUMMIT -- TO GIVE UP HIS QUASI-GOVERNMENTAL FUNCTIONS AND HIS GLOBE- TROTTING AND DEVOTE HIMSELF TO MAKING ONLY THE BIGGEST INTERNAL DECISIONS, TO PARTY WORK, TO ORGANIZING THE 25TH CONGRESS, AND TO MAN- EUVERING A YOUNGER ASSOCIATE (E.G., KULAKOV OR SCHERBITSKIY) INTO POSITION BE BE ELECTED THE NEXT GENERAL SECRETARY. THE OLYMPIAN OPTION HAS THE ADVANTAGE OF ALLOWING BREZHNEV TO CHANNEL HIS REMAINING POWERS INTO THE SUCCESSION QUESTION. IT HAS THE DISADVANTAGE OF MAKING BREZHNEV LOOK LIKE A LAME DUCK, AND LAME DUCKS ARE NOTORIOUSLY LACKING IN THE POWER THEY WOULD HAVE IF THEIR POLITICAL DEMISE WERE NOT INCIPIENT. THE OLYMPIAN OPTION ALSO RISKS INCURRING THE OPPOSITION OF SOME OF THE SENIOR LEADERS, WHO WOULD PROBABLY FEEL THREATENED BY THE RAPID RISE OF A YOUNGER MAN. TO WORK THIS OPTION SUCCESSFULLY, BREZHNEV PROBABLY WOULD HAVE TO KEEP SIGNALLING SOMEHOW THAT HE MAY NOT STEP DOWN AT THE NEXT CONGRESS, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME GROOMING SUMEBODY ELSE TO TAKE OVER. IF HE WERE TITO, HIS CHANCES TO CARRY IT OFF WOULD PROBABLY BE FAVORABLE BUT HIS PERSONAL PRESTIAGE AND POWER ARE NOT THE EQUIVALENT OF THE YUGOSLAV LEADER'S. THUS, HERE TOO THE ODDS ARE NOT VERY GOOD FOR BREZHNEV. FORD a BERALD 1800mn NOT TO BE REPRODUCED WITHQ CONF OF THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY FORM DS-1652 OF STATE Department of State OF STATES ANITED AMERICA TELEGRAM CONFIDENTIAL 5509 PAGE 01 MOSCOW 01958 03 OF 03 122011Z 42 ACTION SS-25 INFO OCT-01 IS0-00 SS0-00 1026 W 130718 R 121544Z FEB 75 FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW TO SECSTATE WASHDC 7143 AMFMBASSY BELGRADE AMEMBASSY BERLIN USMISSION USBERLIN AMEMBASSY BONN AMEMBASSY BUCHAREST AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST USMISSION GENEVA AMOUNSUL HONG KONG AMOUNSUL LENINGRAD AMEMBASSY LONDON AMCONSUL MINICH USMISSION NATO AMEMBASSY PARIS USLO PEKING AMEMBASSY PRAGUE AMEMBASSY ROME AMEMBASSY SOFIA AMEMRASSY TAIPEI AMEMBASSY TOKYO USMISSION USUN NY USDEL MBFR VIENNA AMEMBASSY WARSAW e n N 0 E N T H SECTION 3 OF 3 MOSCOW 1958 FORD LIBRARY & OERALO EXDIS 7. BREZHNEV'S ILLNESS -- DEPENDING ON HOW DEBILITATING IT IS -- MAY SHARPLY REDUCE HIS ABILITY TO MANIPUTLATE ANY OF THESE OPTIONS. ON THE PRINCIPLE THAT BLOOD IN THE WATER ATTRACTS SHARKS, HIS POOR HEALTH IS AT THE LEAST LIKELY TO INTENSIFY THE PROCESS OF LEADERSHIP SPARRING WHICH WOULD BE NATURAL ANYWAY IN A PRE-CONGRESS YEAR. AS WE NOTED IN REFTEL, THE STRUGGLE NOT TO BE REPRODUCED WITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION OF THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY CONFIDENTIAL IL or STATE UNITED (1) Department of State TELEGRAM I OF CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 MOSCOW 01958 03 OF 03 122011Z FOR POLITICAL POWER IS USUALLY CLOTHED IN ISSUES BUT WE HAVE SEEN NO CLEAR EVIDENCE OF LEADERSHIP DISPUTES OVER PARTICULAR EXCES ISSUES. THE RODIONOV ARTICLE IN PRAVDA JANUARY 21, WHICH S0 FAR IS SUI GENERIS, DID IMPLY SOME DISSATISFACTION WITH THE INABILITY OF THE PRESENT POLITBURO TO REACH DECISIONS ON KEY ECONOMIC ISSUES, BUT WAS NOT SPECIFICALLY CRITICAL OF BREZHNEV PERSONALLY. RODIONOV -- A MAN WHO LOST HIS POST OF SECOND SECRETARY OF GEORGIA UNDER THE BREZHNEV LEADERSHIP -- HOWEVER, DID WARN AGAINST THE TENDENCY OF PARTY LEADERS TO ASSUME ECONOMIC MANAGE- MENT FUNCTIONS, A POLICY ASSOCIATED WITH BREZHNEV. HE ALSO MENTIONED THE PERENNIAL PROBLEM OF THE ADVANCEMENT OF YOUNGER LEADERS TO SENIOR POSTS. AS USUAL. HIS WORDS ON THIS SENSITIVE SUBJECT WERE CAREFULLY MODULATED WITH RECOGNITION OF THE IMPORTANCE OF EXPERIENCED CADRES! BUT SIMPLY TO MENTION THE ISSUE IS TO REMIND MIDDLE-ECHELON LEADERS OF THE OBSTACLES TO PROMOTION THE SENIOR INCUMBENTS. MOREOVER, HIS EMPHASIS ON THE PRINCIPLE OF COLLECTIVITY, THOUGH A FAMILIAR THEME FOR HIM, MAY ALSO CARRY THE IMPLICATION THAT COLLECTIVITY IS INSUFFICIENTLY REGARDED BY BREZHNEVI THIS, OF COURSE, WAS THE CHARGE AGAINST KHRUSHCHEV AND PROBABLY THE STRONGEST REASON FOR HIS OVERTHORW. NEVERTHE- ESS, RODIONOV'S MESSAGE IS NOT NEW AND HIS MESSAGE IS BASICALLY THE NEGATIVE ONE OF CHAFING OVER LEADERSHIP INDECISION. R. WE CONTINE TO FEEL THAT WHILE IT IS LIKELY THAT PRIORITIES FOR RESOURCE ALLOCATIONS WOULD FORM THE TERRAIN ON WHICH A POSSIBLE STRUGGLE FOR POLTICAL POWER WOULD BE WAGED, IT ALSO SEEMS PROBABLE THAT THE ECONOMIC ISSUES WOULD BE PRIMARILY INTERNAL ONES (E.G., LIGHT-VS. - HEAVY INDUSTRY, DEFENSE SPEND- ING, REORGANIZATION OF AGRICULTURE) RATHER THAN ONES DIRECTLY INVOLVING SOVIET ECONOMIC TIES WITH THE WEST. DISAPPOINTMENT WITH BREZHNEVIS ECONOMIC DETENTE POLICIES COULD PLAY A SECONDARY ROLE IN A POWER STRUGGLE, BUT WE DOUBT THAT EVEN THE SETBACK ON TRADE WITH THE U.S. IS SEEN HERE AS S0 SERIOUS OR so IRREVERS- TBLE AS TO MAKE ECONOMIC DETENTE A MAJOR BONE OF CONTENTION. THUS, OUR WORKING HYPOTHESIS AT THIS POINT REMAINS THAT SOVIET R INTEREST IN CLOSER ECONOMIC RELATIONS WITH THE WEST IS FORD LIKELY TO CONTINUE DURING PRE-PART CONGRESS JOCKING. GERALD 9. AS REGARDS POLTICAL DETENTE, AN ACTIVE BREZHNEV, COUNTING LIGHARY HIS DAYS, WOULD CERTAINLY WANT TO KEEP THINGS ON COURSE. THE PROSPECTS FOR SALT II AND CSCE ARE BRIGHT ENOUGH TO MAKE THIS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED WITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY CONFIDENTIAL D'PANTMENT OF STATE UNITED (I Department of State TELEGRAM STATE OF CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 MOSCOW 01958 03 OF 03 122011Z LOOK POSSIBLE. SALT PROBABLY HAS A SPECIAL IMPORTANCE FOR BREZHNEV. HOWEVER, WHATEVER LEVERAGE THE U.S. MIGHT BE ABLE TO DERIVE FROM HIS DESIRE FOR AN AGREEMENT MAY BE OFFSET BY HIS WANING ABILITY TO KNOCK HEADS TOGETHER IN THE SOVIET BUREAUCRACY. A BREZHNEV WHO, FOR HEALTH OR OTHER REASONS, IS REGARDED BY HIS COLLEAGUES AS A LAME DUCK WILL NOT BE ABLE TO AFFORD TO MAKE INTERNAL ENEMIES WITH A SOFT AGREEMENT ON STRATEGIC ARMS. EVEN IF A MORE PURELY COLLECTIVE LEADERSHIP IS THE NEAR-TERM CONSEQUENCE OF A SERIOUS BREZHNEV ILLNESS, WE WOULD EXPECT A STRONG EFFORT TO BRING SALT AND CSCE TO SUCCESSUL CONCLUSIONS DURING THE YEAR. THE REGIME IS TOO FAR DOWN THE ROAD ON BOTH ISSUES FOR STARTLING POLICY REVERSALS TO BE LIKELY. THE MIDDLE EAST ISSUE HAS A MORE NEGATIVE CAST; THE OVER-RIDING OBJECTIVE FFOR THE REGIME IN GENERAL NO LESS THAN FOR BREZHNEV PERSONALLY) IS TO ENHANCE SOVIET POWER AND PRESTIGE IN THE AREA, WHICH MEANS IN THE SHORT TERM TO AVOID EMBARRASSMENT BY THE U.S. OR EGYPT. 10. LOOKING AT THE FACTORS CURRENTLY BEFORE US IN THEIR TOTALITY -- BREZHNEV'S UNCERTAIN HEALTH, THE HEAVY FOREIGN POLICY CALENDAR TO WHICH THE SOVIETS ARE ALREADY COMMITTED, THE SUCCESSION OPTIONS OPEN TO BREZHNEV, THE NEED TO GET PREPARATIONS FOR THE 25TH PARTY CONGRESS SETTLED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS --WE WOULD ADVANCE TWO TENTATIVE CONCLUSIONS OF RELEVANCE TO U.S.- SOVIET RELATIONS. FIRST, DURING 1975 THE SOVIETS ARE NOT LIKELY TO UNDO THEIR COMMITMENT TO EITHER THE ECONOMIC OR THE POLITICAL-MILITARY ASPECTS OF DETENTE. BUT SECOND -- WHETHER BECAUSE OF A LEADER NO LONGER ABLE TO LEAD, A GREATHER COLLECTIVITY IN THE LEADERSHIP, OR A FLOW OF POWER TOWARD ANOTHER LEADER -- THEIR COMMITMENT MAY GROW PROGRESSIVELY MORE FLACCID. THE DANGERS IN OUR VIEW ARE THAT THE SOVIET LEADERSHIP MAY BECOME LESS DETERMINED AND LESS ENERGETIC IN ITS PURSUIT OF IMPROVED S. SOVIET RELATIONS AND THUS PROGRESSIVELY LESS CAPABLE OF MAKING SOME OF THE HARD DECISIONS THAT MAY BE REQUIRED TO KEEP THE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP MOVING FORWARD. STOESSEL FORD ? BERALD SHAR NOT TO BE REPRODUCED WITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION OF THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY SUNFIDENTIAL NATIONAL ARCHIVES AND RECORDS ADMINISTRATION Presidential Libraries Withdrawal Sheet WITHDRAWAL ID 013587 REASON FOR WITHDRAWAL National security restriction TYPE OF MATERIAL Telegram CREATOR'S NAME AMEMBASSY MOSCOW RECEIVER'S NAME SECSTATE WASHDC DESCRIPTION Re Gromyko's remarks about Middle East CREATION DATE 02/13/1975 VOLUME 3 pages COLLECTION/SERIES/FOLDER ID 032500349 COLLECTION TITLE NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER. PRESIDENTIAL COUNTRY FILES FOR EUROPE AND CANADA BOX NUMBER 20 FOLDER TITLE USSR - State Department Telegrams: To SECSTATE - EXDIS (4) DATE WITHDRAWN 08/08/2001 WITHDRAWING ARCHIVIST GG DEPARTMENT OP STATE WH 8 Department of State of STATES AMERICA TELEGRAM CONFIDENTIAL 1222 PAGE 01 MOSCOW 02100 1416282 45 ACTION 38-25 INFO OCT-01 IS0-00 380-00 NSCE-00 1026 W 036478 D R 1415197 FEB 75 FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7235 INFO AMEMBASSY BELGARDE AMEMBASSY BERLIN USMISSION USBERLIN AMEMBASSY BUCHAREST AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST AMCONSUL LENINGRAD AMCONSUL MUNICH AMEMBASSY PRAGUE AMEMBASSY SOFIA AMEMBASSY WARSAW N I E N I MOSCOW 2100 EXDIS E.O. 11652: GDS TAGS: PINT, UR SUBJI BREZHNEV REAPPEARS FOR WILSON VISIT 1. BREZHNEVIS REAPPERANCE AFTER 50 DAYS ABSENCE WAS TREATED BY SOVIET PRESS AND TV AS COMPLETELY NORMAL EVENT. EVENING NEWS PROGRAM VREMYA FOCUSED ON BREZHNEV AT SHORT RANGE IN COVERAGE OF OPENING OF BRITISH-SOVIET TALKS IN KREMLIN. BREZHNEV SEEMED IN GOOD FORM AND SPRITS ON TV, BUT FREQUENTLY OPENED AND CLOSED HIS MOUTH AS IF UNCOMFORTABLE. HE SMOKED OSTENTATIOUSLY. RED STAR RAN LARGEST (RETOUCHED) PHOTOGRAPH OF LEADERS WHICH FEATURED BREZHNEV. P FORD SOVETSKAYA ROSSIYA RAN SOME PHOTOS IN SMALLER SIZE. PRAVDA SHOWED SOVIET AND BRITISH LEADERS SEATED GERALD LIBRARY AT LARGE CONFERENCE TABLE. OTHER PAPERS RAN SMALLER PHOTO OF SEATED LEADERS. BRITISH JURNALIST WHO SAW BREZHNEV TOGETHER WITH WILSON THIS MORNING CHARACTERIZED NOT TO BE REPRODUCED WITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION OF THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY CONFIDENTIAL GG 7/31/01 BABM or and AMERICA assima NAME Department of State TELEGRAM STATES or CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 MOSCOW 02100 1416282 SOVIET LEADER AS LOOKING "VERY FIT AND THE PICTURE OF GOOD HEALTH, VERY MUCH IN COMMAND OF THE SITUATION, AND SEEMINGLY FAR MORE VIGOROUS AND ENERGETIC THAN EITHER KOSYGIN OR GROMYKO." " 2. COMMENT: SOVIET HANDLING OF BREZHNEVIS REAPPEARANCE WAS PREDICTABLE IN VIEW OF SOVIET PUBLICH POSITION THAT NOTHING SERIOUS WAS BOTHERING BREZHNEV AND SOVIET REFUSAL ON PRINCIPLE TO DIGNIFY STORIES OF LEADERSHIP PROBLEMS WITH PUBLIC RESPONSES. HOWEVER, NATURE OF BREZHNEV'S ILLNESS OR ILLNESSES STILL NOT KNOWN, IN THIS CONNECTION, CANADIAN AMBASSADOR FORD SAID LAST NIGHT THAT HE WAS TOLD TWO WEEKS AGO BY A "TRUSTED SOURCE" THAT BREZHNEV WOULD REAPPEAR ON TV FEBRUARY 13 FOR WILSON, BUT THAT HE WOULD NEVER FULLY RECOVER FROM HIS ILLNESS NOR RESUME A FULL WORK SCHEDULE. STOESSEL GERALD R. FORD LIRRIBA 11 NOT TO BE REPRODUCED WITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION OF THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY CONFIDENTIAL MARIE or STATE Department of State of I AMERICA TELEGRAM SECRET 5253 PAGE 01 MOSCOW 02152 170804Z DECLASSIFIED STATE DEPT, GUIDELINES, state visit 8/4/00 E.O. 12956, SEC. 3.5 16 66 ACTION SS-25 , NARA, DATE 7/31/01 INFO OCT-01 ISO-00 SSO-00 NSCE-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 INRE-00 AECE-00 /026 W 070747 0 170746Z FEB 75 FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7278 SECRET MOSCOW 2152 STATE DEPT. DECLASSIFICATION REVIEW Retain Class'n Change to EXDIS Declassify in part and excise as shown EO 12958, 25X( )( )( ) E. O. 11652: XGDS-3 Declassify After TAGS: PARM, us, UR With concurrence (not)(obtained) SUBJ: TTBT/PNE NEGOTIATIONS PS by PV Date 8/4/00 TTBT/PNE MESSAGE NUMBER ELEVEN 1. REFERENCE MOSCOW 2101. IN HIS COMMENTS ABOUT OBSERVERS BEING IN A POSITION TO ACQUIRE PROPRIETARY INDUSTRIAL INFOR- MATION, MOROKHOV MENTIONED AS EXAMPLES: INFORMATION ON DRILLING EQUIPMENT, WELL CASINGS AND FILL BACKS. 2. RECOMMEND AN ASSESSMENT BE MADE OF THE IMPORTANCE OF THIS MATTER AND ASSEMBLY OF A PRELIMINARY BRIEF ON EXISTING LAW AND AGREEMENTS ON HANDLING OF MATTER OF ACCESS TO PROPRIETARY INDUSTRIAL INFORMATION, IN ORDER TO BE READY TO DEAL WITH THIS FEATURE OF EFFECTIVE OBSERVER PRESENCE IF NECESSARY. EXEMS 3, MORKOKHOVIS EXAMPLES ARE GOOD ILLUSTRATIONS OF NON- NUCLEAR ENGINEERING COMPONENTS OF PNE PROJECTS WHICH ENTERPRISES DOMICILED IN NNWS WOULD WANT TO BID ON. RECOMMEND THAT ANY WORK DONE ON ISSUE OF PARAGRAPH TWO INCLUDE TREATMENT OF THIS ASPECT. 4, REFERENCE MOSCOW 2101. IN SUGGESTING CATEGORIZATION GERALO R. FORD LIBHART OF PNE APPLICATIONS ACCORDING TO THEIR DEVELOPMENT STATUS, MOROKHOV STATED THAT IAEA HAD ADOPTED THIS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED WITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION OF THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY SECRET OF STATE Department of State of / UNITED AMERICA TELEGRAM SECRET PAGE 02 MOSCOW 02152 170804Z CHARACTERIZATION. BY THIS, HE WAS REFERRING TO THE IAEA PNE ACTIVITY AND FEASIBILITY REPORT BEING PREPARED BY ULF ERICSSON WITH ASSISTANCE FROM MYASNIKOV, PETROV, CURTIS AND NORDYKE DURING THE WEEK OF JANUARY 27 IN VIENNA. IN THAT DRAFT REPORT, THREE CATEGORIES WERE DESCRIBED: THOSE DEVELOPED TO A POINT SUITABLE FOR INDUSTRIAL USE, THOSE IN THE STAGES OF FULL SCALE FIELD TESTS, AND THOSE IN THE LABORATORY STUDY STAGE. 5. DURING FIRST WEEK, DELEGATION TRANSMITTED PNE MESSAGES ONE THROUGH TEN. 6. DURING FIRST WEEK, DELEGATION RECEIVED STATE MESSAGE 29629, 31754 AND 34245. WE UNDERSTAND THE FINAL TTBT/ PNE NUMBERS FOR THESE ARE SIX, SEVEN AND EIGHT. 7. FOR RECORD PURPOSES, WE CONSIDER FIRST WEEK TO HAVE BEGUN 0048 HOURS, FEBRUARY 10, AND TO HAVE ENDED 1645Z HOURS, FEBRUARY 14. EXCES EXCES STDESSEL FORD & LIBRARY OERALO NOT TO BE REPRODUCED WITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION or THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY SECRET THANTMENT OF STATE WH Department of State of STATES UNITED AMERICA the TELEGRAM SECRET 9759 DECLASSIFIED PAGE 01 MOSCOW 02255 191522Z E.O. 12956, SEC. 3.5 STATE DEPT, GUIDELINES state visit 8/11/00 43 GG ' MARA, DATE 7/31/01 ACTION SS-25 INFO OCT-01 ISO-00 SSO-00 NSCE-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 INRE-00 ERDE-00 1026 W 095892 R 1914437 FEB 75 FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW TO SECSTATE WASHDC 7351 STATE DEPT. DECLASSIFICATION REVIEW SECRET MOSCOW 2255 Retain Class'n Change to Declassify in part and excise as shown EXDIS EO 12958, 25X( )( )( ) 1/1 Declassify After .n. 11652 XGDS-3 With concurrence (not)(obtained) TAGS! PARM. US, UR IPS by 3V Date 8/4/00 SUBJ: TTRT/PNE NEGOTIATIONS TTBT/FNE MESSAGE NUMBER FOURTEEN FULLOWING IS TEXT OF AMBASSADOR STOESSEL'S STATEMENT DEI IVERED AT FEBRUARY 19 PLENARY: BEGIN TEXT: MR. MINISTER: THE US DELEGATION HAS COMPLETED TS PRESENTATION OF THE US PROPOSAL WITH RESPECT TO CONTAINED NFS. THIS AFTERNOON I SHALL TURN TO THE OTHER MAJOR CATE- SORY, WHICH BOTH SIDES CALL EXCAVATION PNES. I BELIEVE THAT OTH SIDES UNDERSTAND THIS TERM TO REFER TO UNDERGROUND UCLEAR EXPLOSIONS FOR PEACEFUL PURPOSES WHICH CAUSE THE YNAMIC RUPTURE OF THE EARTH'S SURFACE AND WHICH ARE ESIGNED TO MOVE MATERIAL AT THE EARTH'S SURFACE. I BELIEVE E AGREE THAT NEITHER THE US NOR THE USSR HAS YET SOLVED LI OF THE PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH CARRYING OUT EXCAVATION ROJECTS THROUGH THE USE OF PNES. NEVERTHELESS, IT IS PPROPRIATE FOR OUT TWO SIDES TO CONSIDER WHAT PROVISIONS FORD & N A PNE AGREEMENT SHOULD GOVERN PNES THAT MIGHT BE SFD FOR EXCAVATION PURPOSES. SUCH PROVISIONS WOULD, F COURSE, APPLY TO EXCAVATION PNES WHETHER CARRIED OUT GERALD LIBRARY N A RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM OR IN FUTURE RACTICAL PROJECTS. NOT TO BE REPRODUCED WITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION OF THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY SECRET or STATE Department of State of I UNITED AMERICA TELEGRAM SECRET PAGE 02 MOSCOW 02255 191522Z I WOULD LIKE TO EMPHASIZE AT THE OUTSET THAT THE PROVISIONS WE PROPOSE ARE INTENDED TO ASSURE THAT EXCAVATION PNES DO NOT PROVIDE WEAPONS-RELATED BENEFITS OTHERWISE PRECLUDED OR LIMITED BY THE THRESHOLD TEST BAN TREATY. I MUST ALSO EMPHASIZE, MR. MINISTER, ANOTHER IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION. IT IS CLEAR THAT ANY PNE AGREEMENT MUST BE CONSISTENT WITH THE LIMITED TEST BAN TRATY OF 1963. THIS REQUIREMENT IS IN ADDITION TO AND INDEPENDENT FROM THE RELATIONSHIP OF A PNE AGREE- MENT TO THE TREATY OF JULY 19741 AND IN MY REMARKS TODAY I ADDRESS ONLY THE RELATIONSHIP TO THE THRESHOLD TEST BAN TREATY. WE HAVE STRUCTURED OUR PROPOSAL ON EXCAVATION PNES IN TERMS OF CERTAIN LIMITATIONS, INFORMATION EXCHANGE, AND OBSERVER RIGHTS AND FUNCTIONS WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL GIVE ADEQUATE ASSURANCE THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAPON DEVELOPMENT OR WEAPON EFFECTS TESTS WILL BE CONSTRAINED TO A DEGREE CONSISTENT WITH THE LIMITATIONS IN THE THRESHOLD TEST BAN TREATY. WE PROPOSE FOUR SPECIFIC LIMITATIONS ON EXCAVATION PNES: FIRST, THE AGGREGATE YIELD OF ANY EXCAVATION SALVO OR GROUP EXPLOSION SHOULD NOT EXCEED 500 KILOTONS. SECOND, THERE SHOULD BE AN AGREED LIMIT ONLYHE MAXIMUM YIELD OF EACH INDIVIDUAL EXCAVATION EXPLOSIVE, WHETHER USED ALONE OR AS ONE EXPLOSIVE OF A SALVO OR GROUP EXPLOSION. THIRD, THAT PORTION OF THE TOTAL YIELD OF ANY EXCAVATION EXPLOSIVE WHICH IS GENERATED BY NUCLEAR FORD FISSION SHOULD NOT EXCEED 0.2 KILOTON. & FOURTH, EACH EXPLOSIVE IN AN EXCAVATION PNE SHOULD BE AT A DEPTH, MEASURED IN METERS, OF NOT LESS THAN GERALD LIBRARY 30 TIMES THE CUBE ROOT OF ITS YIELD IN KILOTONS. NOT TO BE REPRODUCED WITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION OF THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY SECRET EXPIS GRANTMENT OF STATE Department of State of STATES UNITED AMERICA TELEGRAM SECRET AGE 03 MOSCOW 02255 1915222 THE PURPOSE OF INFORMATION EXCHANGE AND OBSERVER UNCTIONS ARE TO AUGMENT NATIONAL TECHNICAL MEANS OF HF OTHER PARTY TO VERIFY COMPLIANCE WITH THESE LIMITATIONS ND TO ASSURE THAT THE EXCAVATION PROJECT CAN BE RECOG- IZED AS HAVING THE STATED PEACEFUL PURPOSE. AS YOU WILL OTE, THE INFORMATION WHICH WE PROPOSE BE EXCHANGED FOR XCAVATION PNES IS SIMILAR TO THAT WE PROPOSED FOR CON- ATNED PNES. IT IS NECESSARY THAT WE EXCHANGE INFORMATION IN DVANCE ON THE PURPOSE, DATE, TIME, DEPTH, YIELD, AND ENGRAPHICAL COORDINATES OF ALL EXPLOSIONS. WE WILL EFD TO ESTABLISH AN ADEQUATE PERIOD OF TIME FOR ADVANCE UTIFICATION UF THESE FACTS, THE STATEMENT OF PURPOSE UST ENCOMPASS A PROJECT PLAN AND SCHEDULE OF ACTIVITIES ELATED TO THE EVENT. THIS WOULD INCLUDE -- A FULL AND CLEAR DESCRIPTION OF THE PLANNED EVENT -- DETAILS ON THE EMPLACEMENT OF THE EXPLOSIVES -- THE PLANNED TIMES OF THE EMPLACEMENTS THE PLANNED TIMES OF INDIVIDUAL AND GROUP EXPLOSIONS THE WEPTHS OF BURIAL OF THE EXPLOSIVES THE SELATIONSHIP TO NEARBY GEOLOGICAL EATURES, AND OTHER RELEVANT FEATURES WHICH EITHER INFLUENCE THE OBJECTIVES OF THE EXPLOSION OR CONSTRAIN HF YIELDS, DEPTHS OR OTHER CHARACTERISTICS. IT WILL ALSO BE NECESSARY TO EXCHANGE INFORMATION N THE GEOLOGY AND THE GEOPHYSICAL PROPERTIES OF THE EXEMS EDIUM AT AND NEAR THE BURST POINTS. THIS MUST INCLUDE DESCRIPTION OF THE GEOLUGICAL SECTION AND A STATEMENT F THE BASIC PHYSICAL PROPERTIES OF THE LITHOLOGICALLY ISTINCT ROCK UNITS PRESENT, INCLUDING DENSITY, ROCK TRENGTH, SETSMIC VELOCITY, POROSITY, DEGREE OF WATER FORD & ATURATION AND THE DEPTH TO THE WATER TABLE. AFTER THE EXPLOSION, THE PARTY CARRYING OUT THE GERALD LIBRARY NF EXCAVATION SHOULD PROVIDE DATA ON THE ACTUAL YIELDS ND ON THE RESULTS OBTAINED WHICH WOULD INCLUDE CRATER IMENSIONS AND RADIATION FIELD MEASUREMENTS IN THE NOT TO BE REPRODUCED WITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION OF THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY SECRET or STATE Department of State DELINA 1) TELEGRAM or SECRET PAGE 04 MOSCOW 02255 1915222 VICINITY OF THE AREA OF THE EXCAVATION. AS WEAS THE CASE WITH CONTAINED PNES, WE BELIVE THAT THE PRESENCE OF OBSERVERS IS NECESSARY TO VERIFY THE INFORMATION THAT HAS BEEN EXCHANGED. HOWEVER, IN THE CASE OF EXCAVATION PNES THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL OBSERVER RIGHTS AND FUNCTIONS, WHICH WE BELIEVE ARE NECESSARY. THE PURPOSES OF ON-SITE OBSERVATION FOR EXCAVATION PNES ARE: (1) TO VERIFY THE DEPTH OF BURIAL OF EACH EXPLOSIVE, THE RELATIVE EMPLACEMENT POSITION OF EACH EXPLOSIVE IN THE GROUP, AND THE NEAR-SIMULTANEITY OR RELATIVE TIMES OF THE EXPLOSIONS, (2) TO VERIFY THE GEOLOGICAL AND GEOPHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ROCK SURROUNDING THE POINT OF EXPLOSIVE EMPLACEMENTS, (3) TO CONFIRM THAT THE FISSION YIELD OF EACH EXPLOSIVE WAS CONSISTENT WITH THE SPECIFIED UPPER LIMIT, (4) TO MAKE SPOT CHECKS OF THE RADIATION FIELD, (5) TO EMPLACE AND OPERATE A NETWORK OF PORTABLE INSTRUEMENT PACKAGES, WHICH WOULD INCLUDE SEISMOMETERS, BROUGHT BY THE OBSERVER TEAMS, WITHIN A SISTANCE OF 10 KILOMETERS FROM THE EXCAVATION, AND (6) TO VERIFY THAT CIRCUMSTANCES AT THE SITE ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE STATED PURPOSE OF THE EVENT. I HAVE BRIEFLY OUTLINED IN THIS STATEMENT BASIC ELEMENTS OF VERIFICATION AS THEY APPLY TO THE USE OF PNES FOR EXCAVATION. I WOULD NOTE THAT ANY AGREEMENT WE MIGHT REACH HERE WOULD BE IN THE CONTEXT OF THE THRESHOLD VALUE STATED IN THE TREATY OF JULY 3, 1974, IF FUTURE REVISIONS OF THE THRESHOLD OR OTHER FORMS OF LIMITATION ON NUCLEAR WEAPON TESTS WERE TO BE NEGOTIATED, THEN THE PNE PROVISION MIGHT ALSO HAVE TO BE REVISED. FORD IN OUR NEXT PLENARY STATEMENT I WILL ILLUSTRATE & THE ACTIVITIES OF OBSERVERS. END TEXT. STOESSEL GERALD LIBHARY NOT TO BE REPRODUCE WITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION OF THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY SECRET or STATE Department of State of I UNITED MARKS AMERICA TELEGRAM WN SECRET 9301 PAGE 01 MOSCOW 02274 191650Z DECLASSIFIED E.O. 12956, SEC. 3.5 41 DATE DEPT, GUIDELINES State visit 8/4/00 ACTION 83-25 EG , MARA, DATE 7/31/01 INFO OCT-01 ISO-00 SSO-00 NSCE-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 INRE-00 ERDE-00 1026 W 097104 0 191602Z FEB 75 FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7365 STATE DEPT. DECLASSIFICATION REVIEW SECRET MOSCOW 2274 Retain Class'n Change to Declassify in part and excise as shown EXDIS EO Declassify 12958, 25X( )( )( ) After E. 0. 116521 XGDS-3 With concurrence TAGS: PARM, us, UR PS by PV Date (not)(obtained) 24,00 SUBJI TTBT/PNE NEGOTIATIONS PLENARY FIVE TTRT/PNE MESSAGE NUMBER FIFTEEN BEGIN SUMMARY, FIFTH PLENARY HELD FEBRUARY 19. MOROKHOV IN BRIEF EXTEMPERANEOUS STATEMENT REVIEWED LAST FEW MEETINGS. HE SAID THEY AT LEAST UNDERSTOOD BASIC ELEMENTS OF US POSITION ON CONTAINED PNES, BUT NOT ALL DETAILS. AMBASSADOR STOESSEL PRESENTED us PROPOSAL ON EXCAVATION PNES. HE EMPHASIZED THAT PNE AGREEMENT MUST BE CONSISTENT WITH LTBT, BUT NOTED THAT HIS STATEMENT DID NOT DEAL WITH THAT RELATION- SHIP. US PROPOSAL INCLUDED LIMITS ON SALVO YIELD, INDIVIDUAL EXPLOSIVE YIELD, FISSION YIELD AND DEPTH OF BURIAL. GEOLOGICAL AND GEOPHYSICAL DATA TO BE EXCHANGED WERE LISTED EXPIR AS WELL AS RESULTS TO BE PROVIDED AFTER EVENT. PURPOSES OF ON-SITE OBSERVATION WERE LISTED INCLUDING PLACEMENT OF SETSMOMETERS AND CONFIRMATION OF FISSION YIELD LIMIT. ILLUSTRATIVE OBSERVER ACTIVITIES WILL BE PRESENTED AT NEXT PLENARY. NEXT PLENARY SCHEDULED FOR FEBRUARY 21. FROSCHER FORD & AND FRYKLUND RESPONED TO QUESTIONS POSED BY SOVIET DELEGATION AT FEBRUARY 17 PLENARY. MEMBERS OF SOVIET DELEGATION THEN ASKED NUMBER OF QUESTIONS RELATED TO us GERALD LIBRARY PROPOSAL ON EXCAVATION PNES. END SUMMARY. NOT TO BE REPRODUCED WITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION OF THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY SECRET 09 PRPARTMENT OF STATE Department of State UNITED 1 TELEGRAM STATE OF SECRET PAGE 02 MOSCOW 02274 191650Z 2. MOROKHOV MADE BRIEF EXTEMPORANEOUS STATEMENT REVIEWING WORK OF PAST FEW MEETINGS DONE IN ABSENCE OF AMBASSADOR STOESSEL. HE SAID THEY AT LEAST UNDERSTOOD BASIC ELEMENTS OF US POSITION ON CONTAINED PNES BUT NOT ALL DETAILS. HE PROMISED MORE QUESTIONS. HE WAS SURE THAT ALL WOULD BE CLARIFIED IN TIME. 3. THE AMBASSADOR PRESENTED FOR THE FIRST TIME US PROPOSALS FOR EXCAVATION PNES. STATEMENT EMPHASIZED PROPOSALS WERE INTENDED TO ASSURE THAT EXCAVATION PNES DO NOT PROVIDE WEAPON- RELATED BENEFITS PRECLUDED OR LIMITED BY TTBT. HE FURTHER EMPHASIZED THAT PNE AGREEMENT MUST BE CONSISTENT WITH THE LTBT BUT NOTED THAT HIS STATEMENT DID NOT DEAL WITH THAT RELATIONSHIP. PROPOSALS WERE STRUCTURED IN TERMS OF LIMITATIONS, INFORMATION EXCHANGE, AND OBSERVER RIGHTS AND FUNCTIONS. LIMITATIONS PROPOSED WERE (1) 500 KT SALVO YIELD LIMIT, (2) AGREED LIMIT ON INDIVIDUAL EXPLOSIVE YIELD, (3) 0,2 KT FISSION YIELD LIMIT ON INDIVIDUAL EXCAVATION EXPLOSIVES, (4) DEPTH OF BURIAL (IN METERS) NO LESS THAN 30 TIMES CUBE ROOT OF YIELD IN KILOTONS. DATA EXCHANGE REQUIREMENTS ON GEOLOGICAL AND GEOPHYSICAL INFORMATION WERE LISTED. RESULTS TO BE EXCHANGED AFTER EVENT INCLUDED YIELD, CRATER DIMENSIONS AND RADIATION FIELD MEASUREMENTS. PURPOSES OF ON-SITE OBSERVATIONS WERE LISTED. THESE INCLUDED VERIFICATION OF DATA EXCHANGED, PLACEMENT OF SEISMOMETERS AND CONFIRMATION OF FISSION YIELD LIMIT. 4. FROSCHER RESPONDED TO MOROKHOVIS QUESTION, RAISED IN LAST PLENARY AS TO WHY IT IS NECESSARY TO LIMIT AGGREGATE YIELD OF CONTAINED GROUP EXPLOSIONS TO 100 KILOTONS LF. EACH EXPLOSIVE LESS THAN 100 KILOTONS. REPLY STATED THAT ELESEISMIC EXEMS MEASUREMENTS COULD NOT DETERMINE INDIVIDUAL YIELDS OF SIMUL- TANEOUS GROUP EXPLOSION. IF EACH EXPLOSION COULD BE DISTINGUISHED TELESEISMICALLY, THEN YIELD LIMIT OF 100 KT WOULD APPLY TO EACH EXPLOSIVE. 5. FRYKLUND RESPONDED TO MYASNIKOVIS QUESTIONS, POSED IN LAST PLENARY, AS TO WHAT IS MEANT BY CHIPS FROM THE EMPLACEMENT HOLE FORD AND WHAT GEOPHYSICAL DATA US WANTS TO OBTAIN. REPLY WAS THAT & CHIPS WERE ROCK FRAGMENTS PRODUCED BY ROTARY BIT, THE LARGER THE CHIPS, THE EASIER THE DETERMINATION OF GEOPHYSICAL GERALD LIBRARY NOT TO BE REPRODUCED WITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION OF THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY SECRET H THANTMENT or STATE Department of State of I AMERICA ORLINA TELEGRAM SECRET PAGE 03 MOSCOW 02274 191650Z CHARACTERISTICS. LIST OF GEOPHYSICAL DATA TO BE PROVIDED IN DATA EXCHANGE WAS RESTATED. 6, MOROKHOV SAID HE HAD LISTENED WITH INTEREST TO AN IMPORTANT ELEMENT OF THE US POSITION. HE COULD FORESEE MANY QUESTIONS. THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS WERE ASKED: -- BY IZRAEL: OVER WHAT DISTANCE ARE THE RADIATION FIELD MEASUREMENTS ASKED FOR TO BE TAKEN? WHAT ARE THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE RADIATION FIELD US IS INTERESTED IN--THE GAMMA INTENSITY OR RADIATION SPECTRUM? WHERE SHOULD THE GAMMA RADIATION BE MEASURED--A THE SURFACE, IN THE GROUND, OR IN THE AIR? WHEN SHOULD THE RADIATION FIELD MEASUREMENTS BE TAKEN? BY MYASNIKOVS WHY SHOULD OBSERVERS OF EXCAVATION PNES HAVE MORE RIGHTS THAN OBSERVERS OF CONTAINED PNES? VERIFICATION OF EXCAVATION PNES IS MUCH EASIER BY VIRTUE OF EXCES EXISTENCE OF CRATER AND THUS OBSERVERS NEED LESS VOLUMINOUS DATA. BY MOROKHOV: WHAT IS THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE THRESHOLD OF 150 KT AND THE YIELD LIMITS PROPOSED? 7. MOROKHOV CONCLUDED SAYING US STATEMENT WAS HELPFUL FOR CONTINUATION OF THE WORK. STOESSEL PROMISED ANSWERS TO SOVIET QUESTIONS AT FUTURE MEETINGS. B. NEXT PLENARY SCHEDULED FEBRUARY 21. US STATEMENT WILL ILLUSTRATE OBSERVER ACTIVITIES. STOESSEL FORD & GERALD LIBRARY NOT TO BE REPRODUCED WITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION OF THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY SECRET 29 PRANTMENT % STATE WH Department of State OF it UNITED AMERICA NAME TELEGRAM CONFIDENTIAL 0661 PAGE 01 MOSCOW 02520 241906Z DECLASSIFIED 53 E.O. 12950, SEC. 3.5 State visit 8/4/00 ACTION SS-25 STATE DEPT, GUIDELINES 66 MARA. DATE 7/31/01 INFO OCT-01 ISO-00 1026 W 025260 241504Z FEB 75 FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW TO SECSTATE WASHDC 7523 INFO USMISSION GENEVA AMCONSUL LENINGRAD STATE DEPT. DECLASSIFICATION REVIEW AMEMBASSY ROME Retain Class'n Change to AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV Declassify in part and excise as shown EO 12958, 25X( )( )( ) N F N I MOSCOW 2520 Declassify After With concurrence (not)(obtained) EXDIS PS by 30 Date 8/4/00 E.O. 11652: GDS TAGS: PFOR, PINT, UR SUBJECT: SOVIET JEWISH EMIGRATION 1. NETHERLANDS EMBOFF (STRICTLY PROTECT) REPORTED FEBRUARY P1 THAT HE HAD ISSUED ONLY 659 ISRAELI VISAS TO SOVIET EMIGRANTS DURING FIRST 20 DAYS OF FEBRUARY. ADDITION TO THIS FIGURE OF MINOR CHILDREN INCLUDED IN PARENTS! VISAS BRINGS TOTAL NUMBER OF INDIVIDUALS TO AN ESTIMATED 860 PERSONS. NETHERLANDS SOURCE ALSO REVISED TO 1,208 NUMBER OF EMIGRANTS PROCESSED IN JANUARY THIS INCLUDES MORE EXACT COUNT OF MINOR CHILDREN). P. ASKED IF HE HAD DETECTED INCREASE IN REFUSAL RATE, NETHERLANDS SOURCE SAID HE BELIEVED MORE LIKELY THAT NUMBER OF APPLICATIONS HAD DECREASED. HE SAID HE HAS LATELY RECEIVED FEWER REQUESTS FOR INTERVENTION AND EXIT VISA REPRESENTATION FROM REFUSED EMIGRANTS THAN IN THE PAST. HARASSMENT AND BUREAUCRATIC SLUGGISHNESS HAD DETERRED A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF NOULD-BE EMIGRANTS FROM APPLYING, WHILE OTHERS SEEM TO BE POSTPONING DECISION DUE TO RUMORS OF UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN SRAEL. HE SAID HE CONTINUED TO RECEIVE LARGE NUMBER (10 TO 15 DAILY) OF REQUESTS FOR EXTENSION OF "VYZOV" VALIDITY FROM PERSONS WHO HAD OBVIOUSLY NOT YET MADE FINAL DECISION. GERALO FOOD LIBRARY NOT TO BE REPRODUCED WITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION OF THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY CONFIDENTIAL GG DEPARTMENT OF STATE AMERICA Department of State TELEGRAM I OF CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 MOSCOW 02520 241906Z 3. COMMENT: ACCORDING TO OUR FIGURES, ABOUT 4,000 SOVIET JEWS LEFT COUNTRY IN JAN-FEB, 1974. IF NETHERLANDS! EMBASSY FIGURES ARE PROJECTED TO END OF MONTH, EMIGRATION VISA ISSUANCE FOR SAME PERIOD THIS YEAR WILL BE ABOUT 2,400, OR APPROXIMATE 40 PERCENT DECREASE IN FIRST TWO MONTHS. HOWEVER, RATE FOR FEBRUARY IS ROUGHLY SAME AS THAT FOR JANUARY. IN ANY CASE, JEWISH ACTIVIST SOURCES IN MOSCOW CONTINUE TO SEE FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SOVIET HANDLING OF EXIT PERMISSION REQUESTS, BUT POINT OUT THAT CONTINUING SOVIET ANTI-EMIGRATION PROPAGANDA CAMPAIGN AND SELECTIVE HARASSMENT AND REFUSALS OF SOME CATEGORIES OF APPLICANTS HAVE FED DOUBTS OF NUMBER OF PROSPECTIVE APPLICANTS ABOUT APPLYING FOR PERMISSION TO EMIGRATE AT THIS TIME. SOME LOCAL VISA OFFICES ARE ALSO ALLEGELLY ASKING APPLICANTS FOR MORE DOCUMENTS AND THEREBY CREATING LONGER-THAB-USUAL DELAYS IN PROCESSING. MAIN FACTOR, ACCORDING TO SOURCES, IS "PSYCHOLOGY" OF SPMUATION: NUMBER OF JEWS SENSE THAT NOW IS SIMPLY NOT GOOD TIME TO APPLY TO LEAVE. STOESSEL EXCES FORD is GERALD LIGHARY NOT TO BE REPRODUCED THOUT CONF IDEN THE AUTHORIZATION C HE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY TRANSPORT of STATE WH of AMERICA Department of State TELEGRAM I CONFIDENTIAL 3580 PAGE 01 MOSCOW 02588 01 OF 02 252116Z 63 ACTION SS-25 INFO OCT-01 ISO-00 /026 W (FLE) 041758 R 25164513? 75 FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW TO SECSTATE WASHDC 7570 AMEMBASSY BERLIN USMISSION USBERLIN UNN AMEMBASSY BONN USMISSION GENEVA AMCONSUL LENINGRAD AMEMBASSY LONDON USMISSION NATO AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY ROME USDEL MBFR VIENNA USDEL SALT TWO GENEVA e 0 N F D N SECTION 1 OF 2 MOSCOW 2588 EXDIS GENEVA FOR USDEL CSCE E.O. 11652: GDS TAGS: UR, GW, WB SUBJECT: DEPUTY FONMIN ON BERLIN, CSCE 1. SUMMARY. THE FRG EMBASSY HERE HAS FILLED US IN ON DETAILS OF A CALL BY AMBASSADOR SAHM ON DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER ZEMSKOV ON FEBRUARY 21. SAHM HAD JUST RETURNED FROM BONN, WHERE HE SPOKE TO SCHMIDT, GENSCHER, AND OTHERS IN THE GOVERNMENT IN PREPARATION FOR THE CALL. BOTH ZEMSKOV AND SAHM WERE APPARENTLY PREPARING THEMSELVES TO TALK ABOUT THE TWO CENTRAL ISSUES IN CURRENT SOVIET-FRG POLITICAL RELATIONS: BERLIN AND & FORD PEACEFUL CHANGE IN CSCE. ON THE LATTER, SAHM REPORTEDLY CAME AWAY WITH THE IMPRESSION THAT ZEMSKOV TRIED TO BE FLEXIBLE IN TONE WHILE REMAINING VAGUE ON SUBSTANCE. HOWEVER, ZEMSKOV WAS GERALD CATEGORICAL IN SAYING THE ISSUE CANNOI BE ADDRESSED IN THE 16. NOT TO BE REPRODUCED WITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION OF THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY CONFIDENTIAL 11 GG 7/31/01 DEPARTMENT OF STATE Department of State TELEGRAM STATES of CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 MOSCOW 02588 01 OF 02 252116Z PRINCIPLE ON INVIOLABILITY OF FRONTIERS. ON BERLIN, BOTH SAHM AND ZEMSKOV RESTATED IN CATEGORICAL TERMS THEIR GOVERNMENTS' OPPOSING VIEWS ON THE ISSUE. SAHM INFORMED ZEMSKOV THAT NO BILATERAL TREATIES AFFECTING MATTERS OTHER THAN QUESTIONS OF SECURITY AND STATUS WILL BE CONCLUDED WITH THE SOVIET UNION WITHOUT THE INCLUSION OF A BERLIN CLAUSE. ZEMSKOV REPLIED THAT "IT IS USELESS TO EXPECT THAT THE SOVIET UNION WILL COMPROMISE" ON THE ISSUE. ON OTHER QUESTIONS, A BRIEF DISCUSSION OF POSSIBLE DATES FOR THE SCHEEL AND GENSCHER VISITS TO MOSCOW PRODUCED NO SUGGESTED TIME FRAMES. END SUMMARY. 2. FRG EMBOFF (VON BRAUNMUHL) HAS BRIEFED US ON CALL BY FRG AMBASSADOR SAHM ON DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER ZEMSKOV ON FEBRUARY 21. 3. VON BRAUNMUHL, READING FROM OUTGOING CABLE, SAID THAT SAHM MADE A GENERAL INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT TO ZEMSKOV, NOTING, INTER ALIA, THAT HE HAD BEEN ESPECIALLY RECALLED TO BONN TO PREPARE FOR THIS CALL. ZEMSKOV RATHER AIRILY DISMISSED THE PLEASANTRIES AND SAID THAT HE WANTED TO COME DIRECTLY TO A DISCUSSION OF THE TWO MAIN POINTS OF INTEREST: PEACEFUL CHANGE AND BERLIN. 4, SAHM SAID ON THE FIRST POINT HE HAD NO MANDATE TO NEGOTIATE. HE CONTINUED THAT IN VIEW OF ZEMSKOV'S ACCUSATION IN JANUARY THAT THE FRG "HAD NOT FOLLOWED THE RULES IN NEGOTIATIONS" ON THAT ISSUE, HOWEVER, HE WAS PREPARED TO OUTLINE THE HISTORY OF DISCUSSIONS ON THE PEACEFUL CHANGE ISSUE. ZEMSKOV SAID THAT HE WANTED TO HEAR NOTHING ABOUT THE HISTORY OF THE ISSUE BUT RATHER TO DISCUSS ITS SUBSTANCE. SAHM REPLIED BY REPEATING THE FRG POSITION: IF IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO INSERT THE LANGUAGE ON THE ISSUE IN THE INVIOLABILITY OF FRONTIERS PRINCIPLE, THE BEST SOLUTION IS THE LANGUAGE & FORD PROPOSED BY THE U.S. ON JULY 26. 5. ZEMSKOV ANSWERED THAT IN THE SOVIET VIEW THERE ARE TWO GERALD LIBRARY FLEMENTS WHICH MUST BE INCLUDED IN LANGUAGE ON PEACEFUL CHANGE: (1) THE ISSUE CANNOT BE ADDRESSED IN THE PRINCIPLE ON INVIOLABILITY OF FRONTIERS (ZEMSKOV WAS REPORTEDLY EMPHATIC AND "CATEGORICAL" ON THIS), AND (2) IT MUST CONTAIN ALL OF THE FOLLWOING ELEMENTS WITH EQUAL STRESS ON EACH: (A) INTERNATIONAL NOT TO BE REPRODUCED WITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION OF THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY CONFIDENTIAL or STATE Department of State ( TELEGRAM I 5 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 MOSCOW 02588 01 OF 02 252116Z LAW, (B) PEACEFUL MEANS, AND (C) AGREEMENT BY ALL CONCERNED. ZEMSKOV CONTINUED THAT HE WAS NOT READY TO DISCUSS CONCRETE LANGUAGE, BUT THE JULY 26 LANGUAGE SEEMED TO HIM TO INCLUDE AN ELEMENT OF "PROMOTING" CHANGE. UPON QUESTIONING BY SAHM, ZEMSKOV REPEATED THIS POINT AND SAID THAT THE PROPER LANGUAGE WOULD BE THAT WHICH SIMPLY MAKES "ALLOWANCE" FOR CHANGE. SUCH LANGUAGE, ZEMSKOV CONTINUED, HAD ALREADY BEEN INCLUDED IN THE (UNSPECIFIED) SOVIET PROPOSAL. 6. ZEMSKOV THEN TURNED TO A DISCUSSION OF BERLIN. HE EMPHASIZED THE SOVIET DESIRE TO MAINTAIN AND DEVELOP FURTHER GOOD RELATIONS WITH THE FRG. BUT HE SAID THERE COULD BE NO ROOM FOR FLEX- IBILITY IN THE SOVIET STANDPOINT ON BERLIN. SAHM REPLIED THAT, JUDGING FROM HIS CONSULTATIONS IN BONN, THE SOVIET POLICY ON BERLIN RUNS THE DANGER OF CREATING THE IMPRESSION IN WEST GERMANY THAT THE SOVIET INTENTION IS TO EXCLUDE BERLIN FROM ANY IMPROVEMENT IN EAST-WEST RELATIONS. SAHM THEN QUOTED FROM A SCHMIDT INTERVIEW SLATED TO APPEAR IN LITERATURNAYA GAZETA (THE GERMAN EMBASSY DOES NOT KNOW WHEN) THAT THE FRG POLICY ON BERLIN IS "FULL APPLICATION" AND "STRICT OBSERVANCE" OF THE QUADRIPARTITE AGREEMENT, WITH NO CHANGE IN STATUS. ZEMSKOV COMPLIMENTED SCHMIDT ON THE STATEMENT AND EXPRESSED THE HOPE THAT THE FRG ATTITUDE TO BERLIN WOULD CONFORM TO THOSE PRINCIPLES. SAHM CONCLUDED HIS PRESENTATION BY NOTING THAT THE AIM OF THE FRG POLICY IS TO INSURE THAT BERLIN IS INCLUDED IN ANY IMPROVEMENT IN SOVIET-FRG RELATIONS, THIS OBVIOUSLY FORD REQUIRES THAT THE CITY BE INCLUDED IN BILATERAL AGREEMENTS. & 7. SAHM THEN REFERRED TO A CALL BY SOVIET EMBASSY COUNSELOR GERALD LIBRARY KOPTELTSEV ON FOREIGN OFFICE IN BONN ON FEBRUARY 12, EXCES KOPTELTSEV APPARENTLY INFORMED THE FOREIGN OFFICE THAT CONSULAR SERVICES FOR CITIZENS OF WEST BERLIN IN THE SOVIET UNION "POSE NO PROBLEM." SAHM EXPANDED ON THIS TO EXPLAIN THAT THE FRG CONCEPT OF "SERVICES" (VON BRAUNMUHL SAID THAT WORD "CONSULAR" HAD BEEN DELIBERATELY DROPPED) COULD BE ILLUSTRATED BY THE FOLLOWING EXAMPLE. WHEN THE WEST BERLIN PHILHARMONIC ORCHESTRA COMES TO THE SOVIET UNION, THE FRG WOULD EXPECT THE ORCHESTRA TO BE MET BY THE FRG AMBASSADOR AT THE AIRPORT, WOULD EXPECT THE AMBASSADOR TO BE INVITED TO THE CONCERTS AND WOULD EXPECT NO SOVIET OBJECTION TO THE AMBASSADOR HOLDING A RECEPTION FOR THE ORCHESTRA WHICH APPROPRIATE SOVIET OFFICIALS WOULD ATTEND. NOT TO BE REPRODUCED WITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION OF THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY CONFIDENTIAL OP Dr A of I UNITED AMERICA and Department of State TELEGRAM CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 MOSCOW 02588 01 OF 02 2521162 SAHM CONTINUED THAT FOR SOME WEST BERLIN ORGANIZATIONS THIS OF COURSE WOULD NOT BE NECESSARY AND "SERVICES BY THE FRG EMBASSY WOULD BE SCALED ACCORDINGLY. HE SAID THAT THE FRG IS READY TO DISCUSS SUCH QUESTIONS ON A CASE-BY-CABE BABIS, EXQIN FOHD & GERALD LIBRARY NOT TO BE REPRODUCED VITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION ( THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY CONFIDENTIAL 8 STATE Department of State of / AMERICA ORLINA TELEGRAM EXCES EXCES EXCES EXPIS CONFIDENTIAL 3581 PAGE 01 MOSCOW 02588 02 OF 02 2521262 63 ACTION 88-25 INFO OCT-01 ISO-00 1026 W 041982 R 25164513? 75 FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW TO SECSTATE WASHDC 7571 AMEMBASSY BERLIN USMISSION USBERLIN UNN AMEMBASSY BONN USMISSION GENEVA AMCONSUL LENINGRAD AMEMBASSY LONDON USMISSION NATO AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY ROME USDEL MBFR VIENNA FORD USDEL SALT TWO GENEVA ? G N H N SECTION 2 OF 2 MOSCOW 2588 GERALD LIBRARY EXDIS GENEVA FOR USDEL CSCE 8, SAHM, CONTINUING ON THE ISSUE OF CULTURAL EXCHANGE. SAID THAT IN THE CASE OF DIRECT CULTURAL EXCHANGE BETWEEN WEST BERLIN AND THE SOVIET UNION, THE FRG MAY WISH TO ISSUE A UNILATERAL STATEMENT. (VON BRAUNMUHL EXPLAINED IN THIS REGARD THAT THE FRG DOES NOT INTEND TO STOP ALL SUCH DIRECT INTERCOURSE BETWEEN WEST BERLIN AND THE SOVIET UNION, BUT WOULD WANT TO MAKE CLEAR IN SUCH A UNILATERAL STATEMENT THAT THE CONTINUATION OF DIRECT EXCHANGE DID NOT IMPLY THE EXISTENCE OF WEST BERLIN AS A THIRD UNIT IN GERMANNY.) ZEMSKOV REPLIED THAT HE DID NOT BOTHER HIMSELF WITH DETAILS OF THIS NATURE BUT WOULD REPORT SAHM'S STATEMENT TO THE PROPER AUTHORITIES. 9. ZEMSKOV, SUMMING UP HIS ARGUMENTS, SAID THAT SPEAKING IN HIS ROLE AS "ADVISOR TO THE FOREIGN MINISTER ON GERMAN AFFAIRS," HE WANTED TO MAKE CLEAR TO SAHM THAT IT IS THE INTENTION OF THE NOT TO BE REPRODUCED WITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION OF THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY CONFIDENTIAL 3 i STATE Department of State AMERICA CELINA TELEGRAM STATES or CONFEDENTIAL PAGE 02 MOSCOW 02588 02 OF 02 2521267 SOVIET UNION THAT BERLIN CONTINUE TO BE INCLUDED IN DETENTE. THE EFFORTS OF THE SOVIET UNION WERE AIMED AGAINST ATTEMPTS BY THE FRG WHICH COULD CREATE THE "IMPRESSION" THAT WEST BERLIN IS A PART OF THE FRG OR IS GOVERNED BY IT. ZEMSKOV SAID THAT WAS THE FINAL CATEGORICAL STATEMENT OF THE SOVIET POSITION. HE SAID THE SOVIETS WERE NOT READY TO MAKE ANY CONCESSION IN THIS REGARDI FOR THEM IT IS A MATTER OF PRINCIPLE. 10. SAHM REPLIED THAT THE UNITY OF LEGAL SYSTEMS (RECHTSEINHEIT) BETWEEN WEST BERLIN AND THE FRG WHICH HAS DEVELOPED UNDER THREE-POWER AUSPICES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINTAINED BY THE FRG EXPECT IN MATTERS CONCERNING SECURITY OR STATUS. SAHM MENTIONED THAT THE MARINE #AGREEMENT WOULD HAVE TO INCLUDE A BERLIN CLAUSE. ZEMSKOV ASKED SARCASTICALLY ON WHICH SEA BERLIN WAS LOCATED. SAHM REPLIED THAT JUST AS MUNICH :AND STUTTGART WOULD BE INCLUDED IN SUCH AN AGREEMENT, so WOULD WEST BERLIN BECAUSE OF THE UNITY OF LEGAL SYSTEMS. EXCES 11. SAHM THEN SAID THAT THERE IS NO POSSIBILITY OF CONCLUDING BILATERAL TREATIES OR AGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE FRG AND THE SOVIET UNION ON ANY ISSUE, EXCEPT THOSE AFFECTING WEST BERLINIS SECURITY OR STATUS, WHICH DO NOT INCLUDE A BERLIN CLAUSE. 12, ZEMSKOV SUMMARIZED REMAINING DIFFERENCES, WHICH HE SAID WERE OBVIOUSLY IRRECONCILABLE IN THE PRESENT DISCUSSION, AS FOLLOWS: (1) THE SOVIETS BELIEVE THAT THE Q.A. MUST NOT BE OPEN TO "ARBITRARY INFERPRETATION" AND (2) "IT IS USELESS TO BELIEVE THAT THE SOVIET UNION WILL COMPROMISE ON BERLIN." 13, AFTER DISCUSSION OF ABOVE MAIN ISSUES, SAHM ALSO RAISED QUESTION OF DATES FOR SCHEEL AND GENSCHER VISITS. ZEMSKOV MADE NO SUGGESTIONS FOR -TIME=FRAMES, TIME FRAMES, BUT SAID HE WOULD LOOK FORD INTO THE MATTER. & 14. COMMENT: SAHM'S INTERPRETATION OF ZEMSKOVIS, REMARKS ON CSCE WAS THAT ZEMSKOV, PERHAPS IN AN EFFORT TO SMOOTH OVER GERALD LIBRARY GLARING DIFFERENCES IN OPINION DURING SAHM'S LAST CALL ON JANUARY 20, MAD BEEN "MORE FLEXIBLE IN TONE." SAHM FELT, HOWEVER, THAT ZEMSKOV HAD BEEN TO, VAGUE ON THE SUBSTANCE OF THE ISSUE TO PERMITARY CONCLUSIONS ON POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE SOVIET STANCE. FROM THE FRG EMBOFFIS CHARACTERIZATION OF THE NOT TO BE REPRODUCE VITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY CONFIDENTIAL Department of State TELEGRAM / 5 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 MOSCOW 02588 02 OF 02 252126Z DISCUSSION ON BERLIN, IT APPEARS TO US THAT BOTH SIDES ARE FIRMING UP FOR SHOW-DOWN ON THE ISSUE. CA SIGNED COMMENTARY BY VLADIMIR KUZNETSOV IN THE FEBRUARY 21 ISSUE OF ZA RUBEZHOM, A WEEKLY REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS, TOOK A SIMILARLY HARD-LINE STAND ON BERLIN. IT WARNED AGAINST "DUBIOUS IN- TERPRETATIONS" OF THE Q.A. SUCH AS GENSCHER'S CONTENTION IN A FEBRUARY 9 PRESS CONFERENCE THAT THE Q.A. IS NOT "STATIC," BUT EXETS EXCES RATHER ALLOWS "DYNAMIC DEVELOPMENT" OF TIES, THE COMMENTARY CONCLUDES BY STATING THAT ANY ACTIONS OTHER THAN THOSE IN STRICT COMPLIANCE WITH THE Q.A. "WOULD AMOUNT TO LOOKING FOR CONFRONTATION." VON BRAUNMUHL SAID THAT AS FAR AS HIS GOVERNMENT IS CONCERNED, THERE WILL BE NO PROGRESS ON BILATERAL AGREEMENTS UNTIL THE SOVIETS CASE ON THE ISSUE OF A BERLIN CLAUSE. HE SAID THAT IF THIS REQUIRES A LONG TIME, THEN HIS GOVERNMENT IS PREPARED TO LIVE WITH USCH A WAIT. HE SAID IN PASSING THAT THIS YEAR (I.E., THE 30TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE END OF THE WAR) HOLDS NO GREAT PROMISE FOR MUCH MOVEMENT IN FRG-SOVIET RELATIONS IN ANY CASE. STOESSEL FORD LIBRARY & GERALD NOT TO BE REPRODUCED WITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION OF THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY CONFIDENTIAL