Memorandum, State Department Summary of Telegrams

NLT (Naval A.d.)147 OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF STATE WASHINGTON DECLASSIFIED E.O. 12065, Sec. 3-402 January 3, 1951 State Dept. Guidelines, March 6, 1982 By Da-B NLT, Date 9-4-80 T OF € R E T SUMMARY OF TELEGRAMS INDONESIA While the Indonesian Government has not yet reached a final decision on the Netherlands New Guinea issue, some support has developed for the position that one further effort should be made toward negotiations with the Dutch on the basis of transfer of sovereignty over New Guinea to Indonesia before any decision is reached to denounce the union agreement with the Netherlands. At the same time responsible Indonesian leaders are greatly concerned that if the Government shows any signs of weakness on this issue, it will fall and be succeeded by an extreme leftistregime. We have reiterated to our Ambassador the importance which we attach to maintenance of the union agreement. INDOCHINA In a review of the situation in Indochina at the beginning of the new year, our Minister in Saigon reports that from a military standpoint the entire north must now be written off and the assumption made that sooner or later the Chinese Communists will invade in full force for an all out effort to capture Indochina. On the economic side the situation is considered no better or no worse than at any time in the past 18 months, while improvements on the political front are offset by the fact that the Associated States have not revealed any dynamism or political leader - ship. In this situation our Minister feels we should accelerate existing programs of military aid, try to get Bao Dai to form and lead a sound government of national union, and immediately assist in or ganizing counter-guerrilla and other resistance units. YUGOSLAVIA A British Foreign Office official has informed Embassy London that he is now inclined to feel that a US-UK-French approach to Tito offering eventual military aid, which the British previously proposed, is not desirable. While this change in position does not yet have top level approval, our Embassy is confident that the Foreign Office will for the time being at least abandon the idea of pressing for such an approach. Meanwhile Embassy TOP -SECRET