Memorandum, State Department Summary of Telegrams

X 101 DEPARTMENT OF STATE State ? 1979 OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY By NLL WASHINGTON DECLASSIFIED E.O. 12065, Sec. 3-402 April 5, 1948 State Dept. Guideline, June 12, 1979 By NLT- NC NARS, Date 11-13-10 SUMMARY OF TELEGRAMS SOVIET UNION A study just completed by the joint intelligence committee of Embassy Moscow concludes that the USSR will not resort to military action in the immediate future but will continue to attempt to secure its objectives by other means. A decision for military action would be made only if the Kremlin con- cludes that an immediate war offers the best chance for achieving ultimate Soviet objectives, and this decision is more likely to arise one to two years from now than during the coming year. GERMANY We have informed Ambassador Douglas in London that we are not so concerned about the possibility of a Soviet announcement of the establishment of a German government, since this would clearly shift responsibility to the USSR for splitting Germany and in view of the present character of the German People's Congress would be recognized as a patent fraud. The impact of any such Soviet move would probably enable us to get early agreement on a similar announcement by the western powers. SPAIN Embassy Madrid has been instructed to point out to the Spanish Foreign Minister and other government leaders the fact that our final decision on including Spain in ERP clearly illustrates the necessity of their taking steps along lines previously indicated by us if Spanish relations with the US and west- ern Europe are to become fully normal. ITALY We are suggesting to the Greek Government that it con- sider the possibility of announcing at an early date its desire to take the lead in proposing the general renunciation of reparations from Italy. We feel that this proposal would do much to influence favorably the coming Italian elections, would strengthen the position of Greece in the Mediterranean and in the US, and would under- cut a possible Soviet proposal along similar lines. IRAN Ambassador Smith believes that the latest Soviet note to Iran has ominous implications, since it suggests that the Kremlin is laying the basis for a renewal of active interven- tion in Iran. He considers it possible that Iran may be selected deliberately, because of its remoteness from the US and the limited