Memorandum, State Department Summary of Telegrams

DEPARTMENT OF STATE OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY wASHINGTON April 15, 1948 SUMMARY OF TELEGRAMS ITALY Observers now predict that Prime Minister de Gasperi's Christian Democratic Party will poll a vote equal to, if not greater than that of the Communist dominated Popular Front in the Italian elections on Sunday. While sporadic violence continues, there is growing public confidence that the government can maintain order during and after the elections and that the Communists will not attempt any large=scale disorders in view of government preparations. On the other hand the Italian Minister of the Interior has predicted that the Communists will be thoroughly defeated in the elections and will then attempt to seize power by force while the police and security forces are dispersed in supervising the polls. BULGARIA Our Legation in Sofia recommends that our policy toward Bulgaria should be based on the assumption that Bulgaria will at all times be blindly obedient to the dictates of Moscow and that the following steps should now be considered: 1) 8. publicized moral offensive against Bulgaria's flagrant violations of the human rights provisions of the peace treaty; 2) having Greece announce a policy of hospitality toward Bulgarian political refugees and also disclaim any territorial ambitions regarding Bulgaria; and 3) maintain a show of allied force in Greece, possibly to the extent of trying to seal off the northern Greek border. AUSTRIA Our Deputy on the Austria treaty discussions in London interprets several recent Soviet moves as suggesting that the USSR now genuinely desires an Austrian treaty. If this hypothesis is correct, he believes that the Kremlin has decided its objectives in Austria can best be served through the withdrawal of Allied occupation troops, even at the expense of accepting treaty conditions which the Soviets have hitherto opposed. Our Deputy therefore considers it essen- tial that we reach a clear decision as to whether we feel Austrian inde- pendence can be maintained successfully in the event of a treaty and troop withdrawal. DECLASSIFIED E.O. 12065, Sec. 3-402 State Dept. Guideline, June 12, 1979 By NLT- HL NARS, Date 11-13-to