Memorandum from R.H. Hillenkoetter to President Harry S. Truman, with Attachment

€ R-0-2150 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY WASHINGTON 25, D. C. WAI: 24 November 1948 MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT The present mission of the Chinese Communist armies is to destroy the effectiveness of the Nationalist military field forces and thereby eliminate organized Nationalist resistance. It is this objective, and not merely an intention to capture Nanking, that is determining the pattern of the present all-out Communist campaign, which is extending from Hopeh Province to the environs of Nanking. In achieving this objective, the Communists now appear committed to a concerted drive against Nationalist concentrations in the Hsuchou sector. Although the Communists are also massing for attacks in North China, a major move against Nationalist forces in the Tientsin-Peiping corridor will probably await the outcome of the battle for Hsuchou. If Communist operations continue at the present accelerated tempo, it is estimated that Communist forces may successfully attain their objective within the next 30 days. The collapse of organized National- ist military resistance will probably force Chiang Kai-shek's Govern- ment to flee south or surrender to the Communists. Estimated Strengths Although the National Government currently claims to have over two million men under arms, a more realistic estimate of the strength of the Government's tactical forces would probably be slightly less than one million troops capable of effective employment against Communist forces in North and Central China. However, the loyalty and combat efficiency of a large percentage of the tactical troops in Central China is questionable. On the other hand, the total number of Communist effectives is believed to exceed one and one-half million troops, possessing high morale and fairly good equipment. North China In North China, the Nationalist Commander Fu Tso-yi has under his immediate command approximately 300,000 well-trained and fairly well-equipped veterans. In holding the vital, though extremely vulnerable, Tientsin-Peiping-Kalgan corridor, Gen- eral Fu faces approximately 300,000 Communist troops grouped to the west of Peiping. Furthermore, as a consequence of the fall of Man- churia, at least 400,00 additional Communist troops have become available for operations against General Fu. This constitutes a potential threat of 700,000 Communist troops presently available No Change In Class. HARRY S. TRUMAN LIBRARY Declassified Class. Changed to: TS S C Next Review Date: Auth.: HR 70-2 Date: 26 April 1982 By: 48531