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DECLASSIFIED
NLT 1999-040 #7
SECRET
Authority.
NARA, Date 7/16/07
Scanner
By. so
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
12 OCTOBER 1951
ZUMAN
E0 12958 3.4 (b)(1)
FROM:
is NARA GENERA
SUBJECT: ANALYSIS OF IRANIAN POLITICAL SITUATION
(IT IS SPECIFICALLY REQUESTED THAT NO DISTRIBUTION OF THIS REPORT BE MADE
OUTSIDE OF THE AGENCY.)
1. BACKGROUND.
A. XENOPHOBIA. IRAN NOW IS ANTI-WESTERN BUT IS VIOLENT ONLY IN ITS
MANIFESTATION AGAINST THE BRITISH BECAUSE THEIR PRESENCE IN IRAN UP TO
THIS TIME HAS BEEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL THAN THE PRESENCE OF ANY OTHER WESTERNERS
(FOR EXAMPLE, THE ANGLO-IRANIAN OIL COMPANY, BRITISH BANK AND BUSINESS FIRMS
BACKED BY A LONG HISTORY OF BRITISH INTERESTS IN IRAN) MOSSADEQ CAME TO
POWER ON A WAVE OF XENOPHOBIA, THE FORERUNNER OF WHICH WAS THE ANTI-RAZMARA
AND ANTI- COURT MOVEMENT (RAZMARA AND THE SHAH DESCRIBED AS SERVANTS OF THE
BRITISH) . IF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SIDE SPECTACULARLY WITH
THE BRITISH (FOR EXAMPLE, HARRIMAN'S REFUSAL TO PASS TO THE BRITISH MOSSADEQ'S
"ULTIMATUM, " AND THE POSTPONEMENT OF THE $25,000,000 EXPORT-IMPORT BANK LOAN),
THE BRUNT OF ANTI-WESTERN FEELING COULD EASILY COVER THE UNITED STATES AS WELL
AS GREAT BRITAIN.
B. DICTATORSHIP OF THE STREETS. THE MOSSADEQ GOVERNMENT IS THE PRISONER
OF THE "STREETS. " THE "STREETS" ARE COMPOSED OF TWO MAIN GROUPS: THE
FOLLOWERS OF MULLAH KASH ANI AND THE TUDEH PARTY (WITH SATELLITE FRONTS), BOTH
OF WHICH ARE EXPLOITING TO THE FULLEST A WAVE OF GENUINE NATIONALISTIC FEELINGS
OF A BROAD SECTION OF THE UPPER MIDDLE CLASS. ALTHOUGH KASH ANI'S FOLLOWING IS
POSSIBLY MORE NUMERO US THAN THAT OF THE TUDEH, THE FORMER HAS NEITHER THE
ORGANIZATION, DISCIPLINE, NOR REVOLUTIONARY AND CONSPIRATORIAL TRAINING AND
EXPERIENCE OF THE LATTER. ACCORDINGLY, OF THE TWO THE MORE POWERFUL IS
UNDOUBTEDLY THE TUDEH PARTY.
C. THE TRADITIONAL IRANIAN POLICY IS TO MAINTAIN THE BALANCE OF POWER
BETWEEN THE SOVIET UNION AND GREAT BRITAIN. THE IRANIAN POLITICAL PENDULUM
IS NOW SWINGING DANGEROUSLY TOWARD THE SOVIET UNION BUT GIVEN OPPORTUNITIES
THE IRANIAN SHOULD REACT AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST FOR SUPPORT (PROVIDING THE
WEST IS NOT REPRESENTED BY GREAT BRITAIN ALONE) .
2. MOSSADEQ'S GOVERNMENT HAS POWERFUL POPULAR SUPPORT.
A. MAJLIS OPPOSITION TO MOSSADEQ COLLAPSED ON 30 SEPTEMBER 1951. ABDUL
RAHMAN FARAMARZI ANNOUNCED THAT THE OPPOSITION WOULD CEASE TO ATTACK THE
GOVERNMENT AS LONG AS THE OIL DISPUTE WAS UNDER CONSIDERATION OF THE SECURITY
COUNCIL. SOURCES BEL IEVE, HOWEVER, THAT THE COLLAPSE OF THIS OPPOSITION IS
FINAL. THE SECURITY COUNCIL DEBATE IS A FACE-SAVING EXCUSE. THE OPPOSITION
HAS GOTTEN "OUT ON A LIMB, " DEPENDING UPON BRITISH POWER AND ROYAL COURT SUPPORT.
BOTH FAILED TO COME THROUGH WITH THEIR SUPPORT AND THE OPPOSITION DEPUTIES FEAR
FOR THEIR VERY LIVES.
SEGRET
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"ocrText": "DECLASSIFIED\nNLT 1999-040 #7\nSECRET\nAuthority.\nNARA, Date 7/16/07\nScanner\nBy. so\nCENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY\n12 OCTOBER 1951\nZUMAN\nE0 12958 3.4 (b)(1)\nFROM:\nis NARA GENERA\nSUBJECT: ANALYSIS OF IRANIAN POLITICAL SITUATION\n(IT IS SPECIFICALLY REQUESTED THAT NO DISTRIBUTION OF THIS REPORT BE MADE\nOUTSIDE OF THE AGENCY.)\n1. BACKGROUND.\nA. XENOPHOBIA. IRAN NOW IS ANTI-WESTERN BUT IS VIOLENT ONLY IN ITS\nMANIFESTATION AGAINST THE BRITISH BECAUSE THEIR PRESENCE IN IRAN UP TO\nTHIS TIME HAS BEEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL THAN THE PRESENCE OF ANY OTHER WESTERNERS\n(FOR EXAMPLE, THE ANGLO-IRANIAN OIL COMPANY, BRITISH BANK AND BUSINESS FIRMS\nBACKED BY A LONG HISTORY OF BRITISH INTERESTS IN IRAN) MOSSADEQ CAME TO\nPOWER ON A WAVE OF XENOPHOBIA, THE FORERUNNER OF WHICH WAS THE ANTI-RAZMARA\nAND ANTI- COURT MOVEMENT (RAZMARA AND THE SHAH DESCRIBED AS SERVANTS OF THE\nBRITISH) . IF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SIDE SPECTACULARLY WITH\nTHE BRITISH (FOR EXAMPLE, HARRIMAN'S REFUSAL TO PASS TO THE BRITISH MOSSADEQ'S\n\"ULTIMATUM, \" AND THE POSTPONEMENT OF THE $25,000,000 EXPORT-IMPORT BANK LOAN),\nTHE BRUNT OF ANTI-WESTERN FEELING COULD EASILY COVER THE UNITED STATES AS WELL\nAS GREAT BRITAIN.\nB. DICTATORSHIP OF THE STREETS. THE MOSSADEQ GOVERNMENT IS THE PRISONER\nOF THE \"STREETS. \" THE \"STREETS\" ARE COMPOSED OF TWO MAIN GROUPS: THE\nFOLLOWERS OF MULLAH KASH ANI AND THE TUDEH PARTY (WITH SATELLITE FRONTS), BOTH\nOF WHICH ARE EXPLOITING TO THE FULLEST A WAVE OF GENUINE NATIONALISTIC FEELINGS\nOF A BROAD SECTION OF THE UPPER MIDDLE CLASS. ALTHOUGH KASH ANI'S FOLLOWING IS\nPOSSIBLY MORE NUMERO US THAN THAT OF THE TUDEH, THE FORMER HAS NEITHER THE\nORGANIZATION, DISCIPLINE, NOR REVOLUTIONARY AND CONSPIRATORIAL TRAINING AND\nEXPERIENCE OF THE LATTER. ACCORDINGLY, OF THE TWO THE MORE POWERFUL IS\nUNDOUBTEDLY THE TUDEH PARTY.\nC. THE TRADITIONAL IRANIAN POLICY IS TO MAINTAIN THE BALANCE OF POWER\nBETWEEN THE SOVIET UNION AND GREAT BRITAIN. THE IRANIAN POLITICAL PENDULUM\nIS NOW SWINGING DANGEROUSLY TOWARD THE SOVIET UNION BUT GIVEN OPPORTUNITIES\nTHE IRANIAN SHOULD REACT AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST FOR SUPPORT (PROVIDING THE\nWEST IS NOT REPRESENTED BY GREAT BRITAIN ALONE) .\n2. MOSSADEQ'S GOVERNMENT HAS POWERFUL POPULAR SUPPORT.\nA. MAJLIS OPPOSITION TO MOSSADEQ COLLAPSED ON 30 SEPTEMBER 1951. ABDUL\nRAHMAN FARAMARZI ANNOUNCED THAT THE OPPOSITION WOULD CEASE TO ATTACK THE\nGOVERNMENT AS LONG AS THE OIL DISPUTE WAS UNDER CONSIDERATION OF THE SECURITY\nCOUNCIL. SOURCES BEL IEVE, HOWEVER, THAT THE COLLAPSE OF THIS OPPOSITION IS\nFINAL. THE SECURITY COUNCIL DEBATE IS A FACE-SAVING EXCUSE. THE OPPOSITION\nHAS GOTTEN \"OUT ON A LIMB, \" DEPENDING UPON BRITISH POWER AND ROYAL COURT SUPPORT.\nBOTH FAILED TO COME THROUGH WITH THEIR SUPPORT AND THE OPPOSITION DEPUTIES FEAR\nFOR THEIR VERY LIVES.\nSEGRET"
}