Central Intelligence Agency Report, Advance Copy, Special Estimate Number 20, The Probable Consequences of Certain Possible U. S. Courses of Action with Respect to Communist China and Korea

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53817-m TOP SECRET NLT(PSF-KAREB) SECURITY INFORMATION CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY anything WASHINGTON 25, D. C. 15 December 1951 ADVANCE COPY SPECIAL ESTIMATE # 20 THE PROBABLE CONSEQUENCES OF CERTAIN POSSIBLE US COURSES OF ACTION WITH RESPECT TO COMMUNIST CHINA AND KOREA THE PROBLEM To estinate (a) the effect on Communist China of certain possible US courses of action, and (b) the Communist reaction to these courses of action. ESTINATE 1. Expansion of the Korean War by Imposition of a UN Embargo on Shipping and Exports to Communist China a. A UN embargo on shipping and exports to Communist China, if effective, could reduce Communist Chinese seaborne The intelligence organizations of the Departments of State, the Army, the Navy, the Air Force, and the Joint Staff parti- cipated with the Central Intelligence Agency in the preparation of this estimate. All members of the Intelligence Advisory Committee concurred in this estimate on 15 December 1951 DECLASSIFIED C.I.A. LTR. Project NLT 77-35 77.41 FOP SECRET By NLT- He NARS, Date 6.4-L0