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SECRET
Cetral Intelligence Agency
REVIEW OF THE WORLD SITUATION AS IT RELATES TO THE SECURITY
OF THE UNITED STATES
SUMMARY
1. The European Communist Parties, with Soviet approval, appear to be reverting,
at least temporarily, to electoral processes to obtain their immediate objectives. The
targets are the forthcoming Italian and Czechoslovak elections.
2. There appears to be a justification for considering the possibility that the
Kremlin may revise its policy (but not its ultimate objectives) and seek an accommo-
dation with the west.
3. Assuming the implementation of the European recovery program, the produc-
tion and distribution of essential commodities are likely to continue to improve in
most countries in 1948. There is little prospect, however, that world trade can shift
from rigid controls to multilateralism during the year.
4. Italy appears to hold the key to Communist prospects of disrupting the European
recovery program. Here the Communists have the best chance of regaining admission
to the Government by electoral processes or of overthrowing it through armed insur-
rection. The Communists in France will probably subordinate any plan for serious
disruptive activities to the exigencies of the Communist program in Italy.
5. Only the timely approval by the US Congress of an adequate European recovery
program will prevent a further weakening in both the domestic and international
position of the UK.
6. Determined Arab resistance to partition, British refusal to facilitate any action
not acceptable to both Arabs and Jews, and the actual state of disorganization in
Palestine render the task of the United Nations Commission virtually impossible of
fulfillment.
7. Unless the Interim Committee of the United Nations quickly instructs the UN
Commission in Korea to proceed with elections in South Korea alone, the US Military
Government may be faced with serious outbreaks of violence.
Note: The information in this report is as of 9 February 1948, at which time the report was
submitted to the member agencies of the Interdepartmental Advisory Council for
information and comment.
12 Feb. 1948.
DECLASSIFIED
E. O. 11652, Sec. 3(E) and 5(D) or (E)
C.I.A.
-OSD letter, April 3-31-77 12,1974
PROJECT NLT 77-9
By NLT- HL, NARS Date 4-HA77
SECRET
1
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"ocrText": "SECRET\nCetral Intelligence Agency\nREVIEW OF THE WORLD SITUATION AS IT RELATES TO THE SECURITY\nOF THE UNITED STATES\nSUMMARY\n1. The European Communist Parties, with Soviet approval, appear to be reverting,\nat least temporarily, to electoral processes to obtain their immediate objectives. The\ntargets are the forthcoming Italian and Czechoslovak elections.\n2. There appears to be a justification for considering the possibility that the\nKremlin may revise its policy (but not its ultimate objectives) and seek an accommo-\ndation with the west.\n3. Assuming the implementation of the European recovery program, the produc-\ntion and distribution of essential commodities are likely to continue to improve in\nmost countries in 1948. There is little prospect, however, that world trade can shift\nfrom rigid controls to multilateralism during the year.\n4. Italy appears to hold the key to Communist prospects of disrupting the European\nrecovery program. Here the Communists have the best chance of regaining admission\nto the Government by electoral processes or of overthrowing it through armed insur-\nrection. The Communists in France will probably subordinate any plan for serious\ndisruptive activities to the exigencies of the Communist program in Italy.\n5. Only the timely approval by the US Congress of an adequate European recovery\nprogram will prevent a further weakening in both the domestic and international\nposition of the UK.\n6. Determined Arab resistance to partition, British refusal to facilitate any action\nnot acceptable to both Arabs and Jews, and the actual state of disorganization in\nPalestine render the task of the United Nations Commission virtually impossible of\nfulfillment.\n7. Unless the Interim Committee of the United Nations quickly instructs the UN\nCommission in Korea to proceed with elections in South Korea alone, the US Military\nGovernment may be faced with serious outbreaks of violence.\nNote: The information in this report is as of 9 February 1948, at which time the report was\nsubmitted to the member agencies of the Interdepartmental Advisory Council for\ninformation and comment.\n12 Feb. 1948.\nDECLASSIFIED\nE. O. 11652, Sec. 3(E) and 5(D) or (E)\nC.I.A.\n-OSD letter, April 3-31-77 12,1974\nPROJECT NLT 77-9\nBy NLT- HL, NARS Date 4-HA77\nSECRET\n1\n="
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