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An approximate breakdown on arrivals through July is as follows: Spain 21,567 Mexico 2,533 Italy 1,101 Yugoslavia 413 Japan 3,676 Sweden 75 (re-exports) Netherlands 1,201 UK 49 Total 30,615 (7 months preliminary) What the future holds, politically and economically, is merely conjectural. If large- scale rearmament begins, and this appears most likely, the price and the output of mercury will substantially increase. The large stocks in Spain and Italy would be purchased quickly by the US, UK, or USSR and submarginal mines would be reopened as the price increased. Formerly Spain and Italy dominated world markets and largely determined the price at which mercury was sold to consumers. In the immediate future Yugoslavia may become an important factor. Its importance as a mercury producer, however, could last but a few years, for reserves at the Idria mine are limited, whereas Spain and Italy are assured of their dominant positions for at least several decades. Emergency Supply and Demand. Mercury is one of the few strategic materials of which the US has fulfilled its pres- ent stockpile objective. The present stockpile, as of 30 June 1948, is 173,519 flasks com- pared to a minimum objective of at least 125,000 flasks. The objective is the equivalent of a two-year supply at the 1945 peak year consumption. In the event of another emer- gency consumption would undoubtedly exceed that of 1945. New military uses are being found for the mercury battery which was first manufactured on a large scale in 1945. Further development of the battery should make it necessary for the US to hold its present stockpile intact. The flow of mercury has returned to prewar channels, Spain and Italy having resumed their position as the chief world suppliers. In the event of an emergency these countries probably would be cut off from the US, or at least present a serious supply problem. The present stockpile may be adequate to assure the US of a plentiful supply until domestic production, and that of Canada, Mexico, and Chile could be stimulated. The stockpile is not adequate to meet US needs during a long war. There were approximately 200 mines producing in the US during the peak year of World War II, whereas only three or four are still operating at the current price. The high cost producers, closed by low market prices, total a strategic reserve of inestimable benefit to the US in the event of a future emergency. World War II proved the strategic importance of conserving marginal and submarginal deposits and their value at a time when it is difficult or impossible to procure supplies from foreign sources. The meas- CONFIDENTIAL 10

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    "ocrText": "An approximate breakdown on arrivals through July is as follows:\nSpain\n21,567\nMexico\n2,533\nItaly\n1,101\nYugoslavia\n413\nJapan\n3,676\nSweden\n75 (re-exports)\nNetherlands\n1,201\nUK\n49\nTotal\n30,615 (7 months preliminary)\nWhat the future holds, politically and economically, is merely conjectural. If large-\nscale rearmament begins, and this appears most likely, the price and the output of\nmercury will substantially increase. The large stocks in Spain and Italy would be\npurchased quickly by the US, UK, or USSR and submarginal mines would be reopened\nas the price increased. Formerly Spain and Italy dominated world markets and largely\ndetermined the price at which mercury was sold to consumers. In the immediate\nfuture Yugoslavia may become an important factor. Its importance as a mercury\nproducer, however, could last but a few years, for reserves at the Idria mine are limited,\nwhereas Spain and Italy are assured of their dominant positions for at least several\ndecades.\nEmergency Supply and Demand.\nMercury is one of the few strategic materials of which the US has fulfilled its pres-\nent stockpile objective. The present stockpile, as of 30 June 1948, is 173,519 flasks com-\npared to a minimum objective of at least 125,000 flasks. The objective is the equivalent\nof a two-year supply at the 1945 peak year consumption. In the event of another emer-\ngency consumption would undoubtedly exceed that of 1945. New military uses are\nbeing found for the mercury battery which was first manufactured on a large scale in\n1945. Further development of the battery should make it necessary for the US to\nhold its present stockpile intact. The flow of mercury has returned to prewar channels,\nSpain and Italy having resumed their position as the chief world suppliers. In the\nevent of an emergency these countries probably would be cut off from the US, or at\nleast present a serious supply problem. The present stockpile may be adequate to\nassure the US of a plentiful supply until domestic production, and that of Canada,\nMexico, and Chile could be stimulated. The stockpile is not adequate to meet US needs\nduring a long war.\nThere were approximately 200 mines producing in the US during the peak year of\nWorld War II, whereas only three or four are still operating at the current price. The\nhigh cost producers, closed by low market prices, total a strategic reserve of inestimable\nbenefit to the US in the event of a future emergency. World War II proved the strategic\nimportance of conserving marginal and submarginal deposits and their value at a time\nwhen it is difficult or impossible to procure supplies from foreign sources. The meas-\nCONFIDENTIAL\n10"
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