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STRATEGIC WEAKNESSES OF THE SOVIET WAR POTENTIAL Much of the strength of the Soviet Union lies in its nat- Industrial Weaknesses ural terrain and great size. These two factors provide the U. S. S. R. with vast resources, excellent natural defense Steel.-The main shortcoming of Soviet heavy industry features and ample area to support a large population. is its small steel output, an estimated 15,800,000 tons in On the other hand, these geographic advantages are off- 1945 (compared with United States production of 90,000,- set by certain disadvantages: (1) much of this vast terri- 000 tons). Although handicapped by this small steel out- tory is frigid tundra, marshland, desert or mountain; (2) put, the Soviets were able to concentrate all production less than one-eight of the area can be called arable land; on military needs during World War II, eliminating pro- and (3) the great distances are a considerable obstacle to duction for civilian needs almost entirely. the development of adequate transportation and communi- Oil.-In 1945, the Soviet Union produced less than 50.- cations nets essential to a highly developed industrial 000,000 barrels of crude oil (as compared with 1,700,000,000 economy. in the United States) There are approximately 30 Centuries of incompetent Czarist government left the known significant refining plants in the Soviet Union. country poorly developed; and the four years of World However, this limited number of refineries, in addition War I, added to the previous abuse of the country's riches, to the synthetic and refining plants of countries under resulted in a general economic collapse. After the Revo- Soviet control, are all situated in the western and southern lution, recovery was slow, due greatly to the sanguinary portions of the Soviet sphere; they are geographically, extremely vulnerable. purges, in which more than 3,000,000 educated persons were annihilated to rid the country of Czarist influence Coal.-The most important source of power in the So- and culture. viet Union is coal. Some 60 percent of prewar produc- tion was in the Don Basin and postwar reconstruction The "liquidation" of the Kulaks (property-owning of destroyed mines has restored less than half that out- farmers) during the Second Five Year Plan, 1933 to 1937, put. Railroads, the most important single user of coal, resulted in another 3 millions being sent to concentration consume approximately 30 percent of coal produced. The camps and graves. Thus, with monumental economic and Soviet electricity generating plants are also dependent social problems still to overcome, the Bolsheviks, in 1935, upon coal: more than 90 percent of Soviet electricity is started anew the task of training a fresh generation of generated by steam turbines rather than by hydroelectric political, industrial and rural leaders to exploit the capa- plants. bilities of the U. S. S. R. The necessity to transport coal great distances from Although World War II brought accession of territory the coal fields to the metallurgical and industrial centers to the U. S. S. R., these did not offset Soviet economic further complicates the coal situation. From the Pechora losses in human life, estimated at 25,000,000, and in in- coal basin, on the Arctic Circle, to Leningrad is over 1,000 dustry, approximately 25 percent of prewar capacity. In miles; the Karaganda coal basin in Central Asia, is 1,100 spite of those losses, the Soviet economy, by reducing civil- miles from Magnitogorsk, in the Urals; and the Kuznets ian production to the utmost and with some lend-lease as- Basin, in Western Siberia, is approximately 1,500 miles sistance, made possible the major offensives of 1943 to from the Urals. 1945. Non-ferrous Metals.-Although Soviet output of most The greatest single weakness in the Soviet economy is non-ferrous metals sharply increased during the war, the the great disorganization still prevailing in the former U. S. R. has been deficient continuously in these strate- German occupied areas of the country. Even with repara- gic materials. It was necessary for the U. S. S. R. to tions and possible imports from the other United Nations, import 763,000 tons of non-ferrous metals from the United Soviet economists estimate that reconstruction will take 10 States from October 1941 through March 1945; and in- years, and will absorb the principal effort of the Soviet creased use was made of wood and plastics in the con- economy. struction of aircraft. In addition, the Soviet munitions RESTRICTED 71

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    "ocrText": "STRATEGIC WEAKNESSES OF THE\nSOVIET WAR POTENTIAL\nMuch of the strength of the Soviet Union lies in its nat-\nIndustrial Weaknesses\nural terrain and great size. These two factors provide the\nU. S. S. R. with vast resources, excellent natural defense\nSteel.-The main shortcoming of Soviet heavy industry\nfeatures and ample area to support a large population.\nis its small steel output, an estimated 15,800,000 tons in\nOn the other hand, these geographic advantages are off-\n1945 (compared with United States production of 90,000,-\nset by certain disadvantages: (1) much of this vast terri-\n000 tons). Although handicapped by this small steel out-\ntory is frigid tundra, marshland, desert or mountain; (2)\nput, the Soviets were able to concentrate all production\nless than one-eight of the area can be called arable land;\non military needs during World War II, eliminating pro-\nand (3) the great distances are a considerable obstacle to\nduction for civilian needs almost entirely.\nthe development of adequate transportation and communi-\nOil.-In 1945, the Soviet Union produced less than 50.-\ncations nets essential to a highly developed industrial\n000,000 barrels of crude oil (as compared with 1,700,000,000\neconomy.\nin the United States) There are approximately 30\nCenturies of incompetent Czarist government left the\nknown significant refining plants in the Soviet Union.\ncountry poorly developed; and the four years of World\nHowever, this limited number of refineries, in addition\nWar I, added to the previous abuse of the country's riches,\nto the synthetic and refining plants of countries under\nresulted in a general economic collapse. After the Revo-\nSoviet control, are all situated in the western and southern\nlution, recovery was slow, due greatly to the sanguinary\nportions of the Soviet sphere; they are geographically,\nextremely vulnerable.\npurges, in which more than 3,000,000 educated persons\nwere annihilated to rid the country of Czarist influence\nCoal.-The most important source of power in the So-\nand culture.\nviet Union is coal. Some 60 percent of prewar produc-\ntion was in the Don Basin and postwar reconstruction\nThe \"liquidation\" of the Kulaks (property-owning\nof destroyed mines has restored less than half that out-\nfarmers) during the Second Five Year Plan, 1933 to 1937,\nput. Railroads, the most important single user of coal,\nresulted in another 3 millions being sent to concentration\nconsume approximately 30 percent of coal produced. The\ncamps and graves. Thus, with monumental economic and\nSoviet electricity generating plants are also dependent\nsocial problems still to overcome, the Bolsheviks, in 1935,\nupon coal: more than 90 percent of Soviet electricity is\nstarted anew the task of training a fresh generation of\ngenerated by steam turbines rather than by hydroelectric\npolitical, industrial and rural leaders to exploit the capa-\nplants.\nbilities of the U. S. S. R.\nThe necessity to transport coal great distances from\nAlthough World War II brought accession of territory\nthe coal fields to the metallurgical and industrial centers\nto the U. S. S. R., these did not offset Soviet economic\nfurther complicates the coal situation. From the Pechora\nlosses in human life, estimated at 25,000,000, and in in-\ncoal basin, on the Arctic Circle, to Leningrad is over 1,000\ndustry, approximately 25 percent of prewar capacity. In\nmiles; the Karaganda coal basin in Central Asia, is 1,100\nspite of those losses, the Soviet economy, by reducing civil-\nmiles from Magnitogorsk, in the Urals; and the Kuznets\nian production to the utmost and with some lend-lease as-\nBasin, in Western Siberia, is approximately 1,500 miles\nsistance, made possible the major offensives of 1943 to\nfrom the Urals.\n1945.\nNon-ferrous Metals.-Although Soviet output of most\nThe greatest single weakness in the Soviet economy is\nnon-ferrous metals sharply increased during the war, the\nthe great disorganization still prevailing in the former\nU. S. R. has been deficient continuously in these strate-\nGerman occupied areas of the country. Even with repara-\ngic materials. It was necessary for the U. S. S. R. to\ntions and possible imports from the other United Nations,\nimport 763,000 tons of non-ferrous metals from the United\nSoviet economists estimate that reconstruction will take 10\nStates from October 1941 through March 1945; and in-\nyears, and will absorb the principal effort of the Soviet\ncreased use was made of wood and plastics in the con-\neconomy.\nstruction of aircraft. In addition, the Soviet munitions\nRESTRICTED\n71"
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