[Miscellaneous Investigative Reports and Memoranda] Re: Ferrie, Death of
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OCR Page 1 of 85Of course, it. must be realized that there is the danger of
being guilty of the post hoc ergo propter hoe fallacy. We can't
say for certainty the changes in foreign policy following upon the
the death of President Kennedy were caused and were intended to
be caused by his murder and as the fulfillment of a plan to murder
him. It is even possible that, had Kennedy lived, the war in Viet
Nam might still have been escalated. For it is most difficult to
be confident when one deals with counter factual conditionals.
Yet we can say the weight of evidence suggests Kennedy would never
have escalated the war in the manner of the post-assassination powers,
and we must also remember we are dealing not with mathematical
ceguations, but with human political ones. Consequently, we can't
even expect perfection or certainty. Thus we can say there is
certainly reason for concern in the light of the vast changes in
foreign policy which were put in motion almost immediately after
the assassination.
Methodologically our suspicions are reinforced by the con-
sideration that not only are changes in foreign policy which have
taken place predictable, on the assumption of a sinister plan to
murder Kennedy to alter his efforts to end the Cold War, but con-
sidering. subsequent political events, one could almost post dict
the assassination. This is particularly the case with respect to
Vietnam.
In Vietnam- What the Military Wants it Gets
Vietnam constitutes an especially important area with respect
to this behavioral pattern of action where it is not called for and
inaction where action is called for. This is so much the case, that
critics have regarded the carrying out of the war as irrational or
even mad. Yet, no one who carefully studies the history of neg-
otiations could possibly assume irrationality. When we deal with
the concept of rationality we are dealing with an idea which
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