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Frankel/Kissinger
11:37 a. m.
7/7/70
-2-
K: They are moving on the canal and moving x airfields and SA-3s closer. They
have perfected SA-2s, The consequence of that in terms of the Arab-Israeli thing
is serious. It's not east to think of a straight balance there. The numbers matter.
I don't know if it's all embrassive plan. It the longer term the demonstration of
power there will have an effect on the M. E, and Africa.
F: Have they made any indication on how far they are going?
K: No. ? ? ? ? ? ? increase of the Soviet presence. The Israelis for all
practical purposes have been lieged (sp? ). There have been conciliatory statements
by the Secy. of State, We ignoredit here for several weeks to get them to stop.
If we went wrong, it was from restraint,
F: It was the nature of the beast. There's little we can do, They have discounted
Phantom sales,
K: There are things we can do but it's not an W easy set of choices. It certainly
doesn't help us, The NYT doesn't bother us but if we have to swear we won't
do anything, it makes it worse,
F: You can steam (?) back and forth but we have calculated this closely.
K: We would like to do this as Semple has through a
arrangement,
But following that the situation will get worse,
percent oil to Japan,
and 80 percent for Europe. It doesn't matter what we intend, If we do nothing
and Israel preempts, we are in it anyway.
F: Sure.
K: If there's one safe prediction, Israel will not let themselves get straggled,
F: Hope State realizes this is true (?).
K: The less we say and the more ? ? the more likely they will do this, Our
Arabs are in a tought spot. What are they more afraid of -- Israel, Nasser or
Palestinians, Presuming Nasser can turn his army loose and then the upheaval
you would have, would be fantastic, One has to separate their public comments
from their private thoughts. There's several situations going on simultaneiously.
It's all very well for us not to have dominance but is it safe for them to be an
appendage of the Soviet Union?
F: Any xxxxxxx sign they have learned anything from 167?
K: They often make noises that they want to settle it and then they take rought
actions. Your read ? ? ? ? ? on the M. E. and that's not conciliatory, My
personal assesment is that they started with defensive intentions and then their
appetite grew, Even what they do defensively they do massively. They may not
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"ocrText": "Frankel/Kissinger\n11:37 a. m.\n7/7/70\n-2-\nK: They are moving on the canal and moving x airfields and SA-3s closer. They\nhave perfected SA-2s, The consequence of that in terms of the Arab-Israeli thing\nis serious. It's not east to think of a straight balance there. The numbers matter.\nI don't know if it's all embrassive plan. It the longer term the demonstration of\npower there will have an effect on the M. E, and Africa.\nF: Have they made any indication on how far they are going?\nK: No. ? ? ? ? ? ? increase of the Soviet presence. The Israelis for all\npractical purposes have been lieged (sp? ). There have been conciliatory statements\nby the Secy. of State, We ignoredit here for several weeks to get them to stop.\nIf we went wrong, it was from restraint,\nF: It was the nature of the beast. There's little we can do, They have discounted\nPhantom sales,\nK: There are things we can do but it's not an W easy set of choices. It certainly\ndoesn't help us, The NYT doesn't bother us but if we have to swear we won't\ndo anything, it makes it worse,\nF: You can steam (?) back and forth but we have calculated this closely.\nK: We would like to do this as Semple has through a\narrangement,\nBut following that the situation will get worse,\npercent oil to Japan,\nand 80 percent for Europe. It doesn't matter what we intend, If we do nothing\nand Israel preempts, we are in it anyway.\nF: Sure.\nK: If there's one safe prediction, Israel will not let themselves get straggled,\nF: Hope State realizes this is true (?).\nK: The less we say and the more ? ? the more likely they will do this, Our\nArabs are in a tought spot. What are they more afraid of -- Israel, Nasser or\nPalestinians, Presuming Nasser can turn his army loose and then the upheaval\nyou would have, would be fantastic, One has to separate their public comments\nfrom their private thoughts. There's several situations going on simultaneiously.\nIt's all very well for us not to have dominance but is it safe for them to be an\nappendage of the Soviet Union?\nF: Any xxxxxxx sign they have learned anything from 167?\nK: They often make noises that they want to settle it and then they take rought\nactions. Your read ? ? ? ? ? on the M. E. and that's not conciliatory, My\npersonal assesment is that they started with defensive intentions and then their\nappetite grew, Even what they do defensively they do massively. They may not"
}