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From Buchanan to RN RE: various state primaries and the statuses of Democratic candidates. Included is a list of states with upcoming primaries. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/18/1971
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From Buchanan to RN RE: various state primaries and the statuses of Democratic candidates. Included is a list of states with upcoming primaries. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/18/1971
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
Contested Materials Collection
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1
39
10/18/1971
Campaign
Memo
From Buchanan to RN RE: various state
primaries and the statuses of Democratic
candidates. Included is a list of states with
upcoming primaries. 4 pgs.
Monday, September 27, 2010
Page 1 of 1
[Item N.5]
No THE BE oF
October 18, 1971
By
A
F.O.
CONF IDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM TO THE PRESIDENT
FROM:
PATRICK J. BUCHANAN
Kevin Phillips has called to my attention a most interesting fact which
should cloud, to some degree, the Democratic primaries, and which seems
on the surface to strengthen the hand of Senator Muskie. The fact:
The filing deadline for no fewer than 13 primaries falls on or before the
date when the Florida primary takes place. In no fewer than six of these
13 primaries Presidential candidates are (Wisconsin, North Carolina,
Tennessee, Nebraska, Oregon, as well as Florida) or can be (Pennsylvania)
filed withou permission of the candidate himself.
In all these six primaries, the names filed in the Presidential primary
are those of "generally advocated and national recognized" Presidential
candidates. What does this mean:
a)
Anyone active in the Florida primary for the Presidential nomination
(as of now probably Chisholm, Jackson, Muskie, Lindsay, McGovern,
Wallace and Harris) is almost certainly going to be filed in all those other
six or seven primaries as well -- since Florida comes after the filing
deadlines ofaall of them, and since they will be "active" candidates when
that deadline passes.
b)
Lindsay and Chisholm and McGovern and the left candidates do not
have any "choice" as to whether they go into Tennessee, North Carolina
and Nebraska. If they go into Florida -- then they will automatically be
"filed" in the others; and Lindsay and Chisholm and McGovern will surely
wind up with a string of ignominious defeats before they get to Oregon.
c)
The likelihood is high then, that the primaries are going to be
something of a mess, and that secondary aandidates -- even when
eliminated -- cannot help but have their names dragged through until at
least after Oregon.
d)
Unless Pete McCloskey withdraws immediately after New Hampshire --
he will automatically be filed in Tennessee (March 9 filing deadline),
Nebraska (March 10) and Oregon (March 14) -- where it is certain he will
be administered a massive defeat. Even if McCloskey does well in New
Hampshire (say 15%-30%). it would seem that he himself could see this
as his apogee, and then "stand down" immediately saying he had made
his point -- instead of taking his inevitable bad beatings in the Tennessee
and Nebraska primaries, even before Oregon.
e)
In both Oregon and Nebraska, just who is on the ballot is the sole
decision of the Secretary of State. In both cases, he is a Republican
(Clay Myers of Oregon, up in 1972) and Alan J. Beermann in Nebraska).
We should decide ourselved just who we want filed in the Democratic
primaries -- do we want "George" or not in the Democratic primaries --
and then get the word to these Secretaries of State.
f)
Without having done mush analysis, I would thank at this point that
Muskie whose strength is much broader, whose recognition is wider, would
be the beneficiary of these cluttered primaries, or perhaps Jackson -- if
Wallace is kept out.
But if Muskie, as the centrist, between the extremes, as the front-runner
and best-known wins in all these contests, he is going to build considerable
momentum for a victory in California, which would cinch his nomination,
as of now, it seems to me.
g)
If the left takes a string of beatings as it seems Harris, McGovern,
Lindsay and Chisholm will certainly do in the "mandatory primaries" of
Florida, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Tennessee and Nebraska -- before
Oregon even comes up on May 23 -- it would seem thatby the time of
Oregon they would be forced to unite behind one of their number in Oregon --
or get whipped again. The "drubbing" of the left, which would seem
inherent in the shaping up of these primaries, might well produce the
kind of bitterness that would result in a fourth party.
(Note: If Lindsay is doing the same analysis as here, it would seem almost
certain that he would want to hang back until after the Florida deadline,
February 10, to announce. Also, Hubert would seem to have a vested
interest in staying out of these "mandatory" primaries, where he, too,
would see likely to get beat. But if Hubert wants to go into Wisconsin
(filing deadline January 31), he has to go into all of the six'mandatory"
primaries, since all their deadlines come after Florida.
-3-
h)
The California deadline is April 7. By the only New Hampshire
Florida, Illinois and Wisconsin will have taken place -- Wisconsin just
three days before!
At this point, the Left -- in the persons of Harris, Chisholm, McGovern
and Lindsay -- will have to decide whether they will go into the California
primary. As will Edward M. Kennedy. If both Kennedy and Lindsay go,
of course, that makes for a split in the Left vote, and perhaps or probably
a victory for Muskie.
The above is a very sketchy analysis based on the deadlines for filing and
the dates of the primaries themselves. At this point in time, it seems to
me we should have an experienced, professional analyst looking over
these maze of dates and regulations in the primaries, to give us some
kind of accurate scenario over what each candidate is likely to do -- in
light of them.
Buchanan
cc:
Attorney General Mitchell
H. R. Haldeman
Primary
Filing
State
Date
State
Deadline
New Hampshire
March 7
Illinois
January 3
Florida
March 14
Wisconsin
January 31
Illinois
March 21
Rhode Island
January 31
Wisconsin
Aptil 4
Ohio
February 2
Rhode Island
April 11
New Hampshire
February 3
Massachusetts
April 25
West Virginia
February 5
Pennsylvania
April 25
Florida
February 10
District of Columbia
May 2
Pehnsylvania
February 15
Indiana
May 2
Massachusetts
February 29
Ohio
May 2
North Carolina
March 7
North Carolina
May 2
Tennessee
March 9
Tennessee
May 4
Nebraska
March 10
Nebraska
May 9
Oregon
March 14
West Virginia
May 9
District of Columbia
March 18
Maryland
May 16
Indiana
March 23
Oregon
May 23
Maryland
March 24
California
June 6
California
April 7
New Mexico
June 6
New Mexico
April 7
South Dakota
June 6
South Dakota
April 22
New Jersey
June 6
New Jersey
April 29