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This file contains:
List of campaign themes for various Congressional hopefuls. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From Higby for "Follow Up" RE: a letter from RN to Missouri "fat cats." Resonse from "G" included. Handwritten notes added by unknown parties. Draft of letter included. 3 pgs. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], 10/24/1970
Breakdown of NBC coverage of Republicans and Democrats on election night. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 11/6/1970
NBC election night coverage. 9 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 11/3/1970
Sheet of notes on the state of various Congressional races across the U.S. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 10/13/1970
List of Congressmen and governors elected in various states in 1970. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Notes detailing races won and lost by Republicans running for the House of Representatives in various states. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From Chotiner to RN RE: the Senate race in Illinois. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/23/1970
Background memorandum on various facets of the 1970 election generated by Haldeman and Buchanan. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], no date
Copy of a background memorandum on various facets of the 1970 election generated by Haldeman and Buchanan. Handwritten notes on original added by unknown. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], no date
AP release on the voting results of certain 1970 political races. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Photograph], 11/6/1970
Comprehensive voting results for gubernatorial races. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Comprehensive voting results for Senate races. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From Howard to Finch, Haldeman, and Klein RE: the First Family's campaign schedule. Various press releases on the same subject attached. 11 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/17/1970
From Tom Lias to Dent RE: the Brock campaign budget. Handwritten note added by Dent. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/7/1970
A general strategy for RN to follow for the 1972 campaign. Author unknown. 13 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
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26145772
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WHSF: Contested, 18-7
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26145772
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document
title
WHSF: Contested, 18-7
description
This file contains:
List of campaign themes for various Congressional hopefuls. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From Higby for "Follow Up" RE: a letter from RN to Missouri "fat cats." Resonse from "G" included. Handwritten notes added by unknown parties. Draft of letter included. 3 pgs. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], 10/24/1970
Breakdown of NBC coverage of Republicans and Democrats on election night. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 11/6/1970
NBC election night coverage. 9 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 11/3/1970
Sheet of notes on the state of various Congressional races across the U.S. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 10/13/1970
List of Congressmen and governors elected in various states in 1970. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Notes detailing races won and lost by Republicans running for the House of Representatives in various states. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From Chotiner to RN RE: the Senate race in Illinois. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/23/1970
Background memorandum on various facets of the 1970 election generated by Haldeman and Buchanan. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], no date
Copy of a background memorandum on various facets of the 1970 election generated by Haldeman and Buchanan. Handwritten notes on original added by unknown. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], no date
AP release on the voting results of certain 1970 political races. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Photograph], 11/6/1970
Comprehensive voting results for gubernatorial races. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Comprehensive voting results for Senate races. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From Howard to Finch, Haldeman, and Klein RE: the First Family's campaign schedule. Various press releases on the same subject attached. 11 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/17/1970
From Tom Lias to Dent RE: the Brock campaign budget. Handwritten note added by Dent. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/7/1970
A general strategy for RN to follow for the 1972 campaign. Author unknown. 13 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
citationUrl
collections
Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
Contested Materials Files
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26145772
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
Contested Materials Collection
Folder List
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
18
7
Campaign
Other Document
List of campaign themes for various
Congressional hopefuls. 2 pgs.
18
7
10/24/1970
White House Staff
Memo
From Higby for "Follow Up" RE: a letter
from RN to Missouri "fat cats." Resonse
from "G" included. Handwritten notes added
by unknown parties. Draft of letter included.
3 pgs.
18
7
11/6/1970
Campaign
Other Document
Breakdown of NBC coverage of Republicans
and Democrats on election night. 1 pg.
18
7
11/3/1970
Campaign
Other Document
NBC election night coverage. 9 pgs.
Friday, March 18, 2011
Page 1 of 4
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
18
7
10/13/1970
Campaign
Other Document
Sheet of notes on the state of various
Congressional races across the U.S. 1 pg.
18
7
>
Campaign
Other Document
List of Congressmen and governors elected
in various states in 1970. 1 pg.
18
7
Campaign
Other Document
Notes detailing races won and lost by
Republicans running for the House of
Representatives in various states. 4 pgs.
18
7
10/23/1970
Campaign
Memo
From Chotiner to RN RE: the Senate race in
Illinois. 4 pgs.
18
7
Campaign
Memo
Background memorandum on various facets
of the 1970 election generated by Haldeman
and Buchanan. 4 pgs.
Friday, March 18, 2011
Page 2 of 4
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
18
7
Campaign
Memo
Copy of a background memorandum on
various facets of the 1970 election generated
by Haldeman and Buchanan. Handwritten
notes on original added by unknown. 4 pgs.
18
7
11/6/1970
Campaign
Photograph
AP release on the voting results of certain
1970 political races. 1 pg.
18
7
Campaign
Other Document
Comprehensive voting results for
gubernatorial races. 1 pg.
18
7
Campaign
Other Document
Comprehensive voting results for Senate
races. 1 pg.
18
7
11/17/1970
Campaign
Memo
From Howard to Finch, Haldeman, and Klein
RE: the First Family's campaign schedule.
Various press releases on the same subject
attached. 11 pgs.
Friday, March 18, 2011
Page 3 of 4
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
18
7
10/7/1970
Campaign
Memo
From Tom Lias to Dent RE: the Brock
campaign budget. Handwritten note added
by Dent. 1 pg.
18
7
Campaign
Report
A general strategy for RN to follow for the
1972 campaign. Author unknown. 13 pgs.
Friday, March 18, 2011
Page 4 of 4
CAMPAIGN THEMES
Florida, Congressman William Cramer
1.
Experience -- can get more done in Florida - very
positive approach.
2.
"Chiles is part of liberal establishment. "
3.
Walking Senator versus Working Senator.
Cramer running as a Nixon Man.
Maryland, Congressman J. Glenn Beall
1.
Spending.
2.
Deliverance of Government services, more state and
local government.
3.
Beall a moderate good guy, not an arrogant liberal.
4.
Law and order.
He is tying in with the President.
New Jersey, Nelson Gross
1.
"You'll know he's there. 11 A powerful new voice in Washington.
2.
Spending
3.
The war.
4.
Law and order.
"100% behind Nixon. 11
Nevada, William Raggio
1.
Law and order.
Nixon candidate.
Campaign Themes - page 2
Tennessee, Congressman Bill Brock
1.
The war.
2.
Spending.
3.
Domestic unrest, law and order.
4.
Prayer in schools.
All the way with the President.
Texas, Congressman George Bush
1.
"He can do more. 11
2.
Bentsen's shady dealings (farm subsidies, other business
dealings).
3.
Economy.
Running as a "Texas" candidate, and proud of his Nixon
affiliation.
MEMORANDUM
FYF -Hosy 1
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
4, Call
October 24, 1970
chot
10/29
MEMO FOR FOLLOW UP
Chotiner is to draft a letter for the President's signature to
go to all the Minnessta "fat cats". We should make sure that
this is done. Missourin
10/26
Larry:
11/9
Chotiner's office doesn't know a thing about the above.
I have no memo to Chot requesting this? Perhapsit was a phone request?
Attached are some memoes to Chot (recent), but none of them touch on
this subject.
G
Pat- this is
the letter that
went out to the
mo. granp
Anne Highers
Ohn Higgins
P-226
Re: Kansas City Trip
RESTRICTED USAGE
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
October 11, 1970
EXEC
TR60/ST25
PL/ST25
Dear ///////:
I hope you will understand the heavy
schedule that precluded the possibility
of my meeting with you personally when
I was in Kansas City. I do want you to
know, however, of my deep gratitude for
the generous support you are giving to
Jack Danforth.
As I have said, Jack is an exceptionally
able, aggressive young leader, and his
record of service is well-known to the
voters. His election to the United States
Senate will be a long step toward bringing
teamwork to Washington -- teamwork that
will help us hold down the cost of living,
wage a war on crime, and bring about a
generation of peace. Missouri can be
proud of Jack Danforth. His voice and
his vote will make the Senate a more
effective chamber in the 1970's.
With my appreciation and best wishes,
Sincerely,
RN:AH:
Transf--10/28/70--ms
(Rec. from AVH 10/27/70)
November 6, 1970
Coverage given to Democrats and Republicans on NBC on election
night. Includes victory and losing statements; commentary from
reporters at candidates' headquarters and time given to party
spokesmen.
DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
1:02 - Kennedy HQ
:45 - Goodell HQ
2:50 - Philip Hart
:50 - Buckley HQ
3:00 - Dan Walker (Stevenson's
1:25 - Beall HQ
campaign manager)
1:00 - Ottinger HQ
:50 - Blair HQ
7:50 - Kennedy
3:37 - Rockefeller
(above is
3:15 - Wallace
before 11:00 p.m.)
5:45 - Philip Hart
2:20 - Reagan
2:00 - Albert Gore
9:35 - Buckley
1:10 - Tydings HQ
2:40 - Goodell
:35 - Mandel HQ
3:10 - Herb Klein
3:55 - Goldberg
2:40 - Murphy
5:25 - Humphrey
27:52 Total
2:40 - Larry O'Brien
(above
is before 11:00 p.m.)
3:00 - John Tunney
3:00 - Ottinger
46:07 Total
(Figures in both columns represent minutes each man appeared on
screen. )
LOG SHEET - NBC ELECTION NIGHT COVERAGE 11/3/70 PM
7:05
Vanocur downplayed early Tennessee returns saying, "It was expected to
go to Brock. " Richard Nixon wants this seat most.
7:10
Brinkley said RN and V.P. put Administration on the line with Senate
elections.
7:15
Chancellor says it's ironic that RN wants conservatives since it's the
Conservatives who hold up his legislation, i.e., FAP, in Senate.
Projected Dem. Carter winner of Georgia Gov. race.
7:20
Project Stennis winner in Miss. Senate race.
7:25
Project Gov. Wallace in Alabama.
Project Stevenson in Illinois. Vanocur says it was a dirty campaign.
Smith made stiff charges. Smith commercials were "pretty rough. 11
No mention of Stevenson's tactics.
7:30
Project Byrd of W. Va. Dem. for Senator
7:35
Vanocur says EMK will win but because of all that happened we wouldn't
expect his margin to be as wide.
Project John Gilligan as Dem. winner of Ohio Governor's race. McGee
mentions Ohio Republican scandal.
7:40
To Kennedy Headquarters - Dean Brelis (1 minute 2 seconds film)
Back to Brinkley who talked about K's previous campaign when he was
in hospital.
7:45 Aline Saarinan interviewing Philip Hart in Michigan. Hart confident
and cool. Denying Vice Presidential ambitions. Says he supports
Muskie. Pooh-Poohed Agnew's calling him radical. 2:50 of film
7:50 Projects Askew victory - Florida (Governor)
7:55 Chancellor talks about Indiana race and says Republicans are running
their classic campaign appealing to the "fears of the people. " Hartke
uses classic Democratic tactic of appealing to working men.
Hartke did well with blue-collar workers.
Projects Harry Byrd, Va., Independent, winner - Senate
8:00 Projects Mandel, Maryland, Dem. - winner - Governor
Projects Williams, N.J., Dem. - winner - Senate
Projects Hart, Mich., Dem. - winner - Senate
8:05
David Brinkley says Williams wins in N.J. in spite of Republican
blitz "money and Agnew. 11
Projects Roth, Del., Republican - winner - Senate
Projects Prouty, Vermont, Republican - winner - Senate
8:10
8:15
Projects Deane Davis, Vermont, Republican - winner - Governor
Projects Kennedy - Mass., Democrat - winner - Senate 67%
running against a very moderate Republican
8:20
Projects Muskie, Maine, Democrat - winner - Senate 65%
Muskie a powerful thrust forward as the Democratic Presidential
candidate.
Projects Prouty, Vermont, Republican - winner - Senate 63%
Vanocur says Vt. Senate campaign was very dirty. Mentions Al Capp's
statement that Hoff's plan to bring Negro children to Vt. would bring
8:25
"thieves & rapists. 11 Dirty -- but Prouty not involved.
Fred Briggs interviewed Dan Walker, Stevenson's campaign manager.
Tried to bring Walker to call Smith's campaign dirty. 3:00 on film
8:30
Project Shapp, Democrat, Pa. - winner 54% Governor
Project Meskill, Republican, Conn. - winner 54% Governor
8:35
Project Docking, Democrat, Kansas - winner - Governor
Project Arkansas, Democrat, Bumpers - winner - Governor
(Rockefeller was a heavy T. V. candidate)
Hartke in Indiana doing 14% better than HHH and better than RN
did in '68 campaign
8:40
Projects Weicker, Conn., Republican - winner - Senate
Duffey lost blue collar vote
Projects Burdick, N. D., Dem. - winner - Senate
Projects Scott, Pa., Republican - winner - Senate
Projects Weicker, Conn., Republican - winner - Senate
8:45
Projects Symington, Mo., Dem. - winner - Senate
In Texa S Administration put up lots of money - More $ than any
other Senate candidate. (Vanocur )
Projects Peterson, N.H., Republican - winner - 47% Governor
Projects Bumpers, Dem., Arkansas - winner - 59% Governor
8:50
(Agnew did not help Republicans with his attack on Little Rock Gazzette
and Sen. Fulbright, who is well liked in Ark. )
Projects Smith, Texas Dem. - winner - Governor
Projects West, S. C., Dem. - winner - 54% Governor
Projects Rockefeller, N. Y., Republican - winner Governor 54%
(moved to right getting working class vote)
8:55
Projects Proxmire, Wis., Dem. - winner - 62% Senate
Projects Love, Colorado, Republican - winner - Governor
A1 Capp called NBC, Vanocur misquoted him. Vanocur said that he
referred to article in N. Y. Times which quoted Capp. Vanocur said
if he was wrong, he apologized. (Vermont race)
Goeffrey Pond at Goodell's Headquarters in N. Y. :45 on film
9:00
Jack Paxton at Buckley's Headquarters :50 on film
Bob Teague at Ottinger's Headquarters -- Ottinger people predict massive
shift from Goodell to Ottinger 1:00 on film
Projects HHH, Minn., Dem. - winner - Senate 55%
Projects Bentsen, Texas - Dem. - winner - Senate "This is a disappointment
to the Administration. " They put a lot of money in there.
9:05
Projects Sargent, Mass., Republican - winner - Governor
9:10
Projects Lucey, Wisc., Democrat - winner - 53% Governor
Vanocur implied that since Dems had SO many up for re-election, that
9:15
we should expect them to lose in Senate.
9:20
To Kennedy's Headquarters in Mass. Doing well in Boston and Italian
precincts. NBC projects 67% win. Kennedy people now feel he has a
chance at Presidency. Commentator mentioned famous Kennedy smile.
Kennedy starts his commentary by thanking voters, said he has tried
to be outspoken on great issues of our times. There is deep concern
from people on issues. K. commended Spaulding for way he conducted
9:25
Republican campaign. K said he (meaning Kennedy) is the Voice for
Peace. Looking forward to returning to Senate. Mentioned Vietnam
(wants peaceful solution to war and return of service men) 7:50 on film
Projects Brock, Tenn., Republican - winner - Senate
9:30
Republican National Chairman, Rogers Morton re-elected to House
Interview with Wallace in Alabama - Presidential election '72 aspirations? ??
Wallace said it depends on what transpires in next 2 years. No plans at
present for '72 campaign. Wallace said RN not carrying out commitments
to South. Nixon and Agnew saying things re. law and order Wallace said
9:35
2 years ago. Wallace said he is "interested" in Pres. '72. 3:15 on film
Projects Anderson, Minn., Dem. - winner - Governor
9:40
According to Chancellor, Republicans thought law and order issue would
be more important (over economy) has not been the dominant factor re.
voting.
Brinkley said Arkansas was a surprise. "Bumpers won with a smile,
a shoe shine and one speech" said Rockefeller.
Projects Cannon, Nevada, Dem. - winner - Senate 57%
9:45
To Philip Hart Headquarters in Michigan. Few signs reading Hart
for '72. Hart said concession speech by Mrs. Romney very graceful.
Hart thanked young people, retirees, and his good friends for their
support. Hart was asked if Mrs. Romney's being a woman hi ndered
her campaign -- contributed to her losing -- Hart said no. 5:45 on film
9:50
To Gore's Headquarters -- Gore thanked his workers and family for
their support 2 minutes on film
9:55
Projects Exon, Neb., Dem. , - winner - 55% Governor
Comment from Chancellor that President's campaigning in states not
that helpful.
Projects Moss, Utah, Dem., - winner - 63% Senate
Chancellor said Indiana expected to be close race, Administration
10:00
wanted badly (Hartke and Roudebush race)
Ed Newman said Republicans had hoped to pick up seat in House in
New Jersey. Great deal of emotion but little change in House elections.
Projects Beall, Maryland, Republican - winner - Senate
10:05
To Beall Headquarters with McMathias commentary. Voting encouraging,
Beall is a middle of the roader 1:25 on film
To Tydings Headquarters - no concession statement by campaign
manager (did not know which areas were reporting in with votes)
1:10 on film
10:10
To Blair Headquarters (50 seconds)
To Mandel Headquarters (35 seconds)
10:15 Utah -- Republicans had a safe seat in House, RN asked Burton to run for
Senate, Burton said he would think about it. RN announced from W.H.
that Burton would run (before Burton had made up his mind) Brinkley
said now he is out of House and Senate.
10:20
Goldberg Headquarters - Goldberg's losing statement 3:55 on film
Brinkley said Goldberg had paid staff of 35 -- Rocky had paid staff of
370.
10:25
Said Buckley, the Conservative candidate, is really a Connecticut
Republican
10:30
Projects Reagan in Calif., Republican, - winner - Governor
HHH Headquarters for victory speech 5:25 of HHH on tape
10:35
10:40
Projects Dale McGee, Wyoming, Democrat - winner - Senate
10:45 Vanocur looking at Hruska race mentioned that Hruska will be remembered
for his statement during Carswell nomination that mediocre people need
representation too.
10:50 J. Chancellor -- "Would you believe Roman Hruska, the sage of Nebraska
in trouble?" Mentioned that Republicans called his opponent Hanoi Frank
(w/o saying why he did so). J. C. said maybe calling him Hanoi Frank
didn't help Republicans.
10:55 Rockefeller Headquarters - Rockefeller's Victory statement 3:37 on film
Interview with Larry O'Brien 2:40 on film
11:00
Projected winner in South Dakota Gubernatorial race - Kneip
Discussion re: unemployment and effect it had on House races. On basis
of surveys projected that Democrats would pick up as many as 2 House
seats due to unemployment.
11:05
Statement that Albert Lowenstein had conceeded.
Discussion regarding the President's and Vice President's campaigning
in 30 states because President would like to have a Senate which would
vote with him. Stated in years that Nixon was in Congress - 1947 to 1952
and Truman was President, Nixon voted 57 times against but 15 times for.
(2 minutes 30 seconds)
11:10
Projected Winners - Senate and Gubernatorial races - just board listing
of previously projected winners by state.
11:15
Vanocur - "Gilligan shirttail not helping Metzenbaum"; conceeded Arizona
to Fannin; refused to detail Grossman's downfall; conceeded Hawaii to
Fong
Reagen Office - 2:20 on film "Reagen had all the money" - Vanocur
11:20
Detailed 16 target states
New York Congressional seats mentioned; mentioned 2 seats, the only
2 Republican incumbents who lost.
11:25
Interview with John Tunney - 3 minutes
With 82% of New York vote in - Buckley 40%; Ottinger 36% - no concession
11:30
Projected a Tunney victory with 8% of the vote in; it's 54-42 now
11:35
Brinkley again says that liberals Goodell and Ottinger outpolled Buckley
11:40
Buckley Headquarters 9:35
11:45
11:50
Goodell Headquarters 2:40
Projected a Buckley win
11:55
12:00
Brinkley said if you were Nixon you'd see results of "massive" effort
to unseat lots of Democrats largely unsuccessful.
Herb Klein intervied by Herbert Kaplow (3:10)
Kaplow - "You're behind in Senate by 7, how do you say the President
is helped?" Antagonistic tone - a lot of people say it was a rough
campaign - President's rhetoric
12:05
Vanocur - Metzenbaum getting no help from Gilligan coattails.
Ottinger - 3 minutes
12:10
Murphy Interview - 2:40
12:15
Brinkley - Nixon has acquired 4 ideological seats and lost 3
Gains - New York, Texas, Tennessee
Losses - California, Illinois, Florida
He thinks Klein wrong on ideology, Chancellor agrees -- FAP help up by
Republican conservatives. Vanocur feels Weicker not a plus, and they
felt coservatives, especially Erwin, shot at D.C. crime bill.
12:20
Vanocur - "don't forget the Republican Senators who were out for
Goodell. Percy and Hatfield will be careful, says Chancellor --
Vanocur, Brinkley and Newman shot that down.
McGee pushing losses in Governors races. Said House forecasts
had been for a loss of 3 - 4 seats.
12:25
Vanocur said Democrats started with special disadvantage with 25
Senators up - (never heard them call our Gubernatorial situation
a special disadvantage).
12:30 Democrats have stuck "richest vain" in Governor races. Republicans
will control only one-half of the statehouses. Democrats have net
gain of 9, including Ohio, Florida with Michigan undecided.
Democrats lost in Connecticut and Tennessee; also lost Senate seats
If Democrats sweep in Governor races left, it will be D-29 R-21;
if Republicans sweep, D-25 R-25
12:35
Democrats have net gain of four House seats - will be increased before
evening is over. No national figure has lost a seat in the House.
Election figures do not bear out Kevin Phillips theory re: heartland
being Republican
12:40 "Republicans didn't stand to lose much because President Nixon's 1968
election was so slight that he really didn't bring in a number of
vulnerable Republican candidates with him. 11
Law and Order theme helped Republicans but was overcome by economic
situation.
In the House there is little change.
12:45 Newman: "Question of whose Gore had been axed. 11
12:50 "No indicatation that this Senate will be of a make-up that will go where
Administration wants to take it. 11
12:55
Situation comparable to 1962 - Demos lost 4 seats in House and that is
precisely the number that Republicans are loosing right now.
Not resounding victory for Democrats, but not devastating for Republicans
(Newman smerking)
1:00
Democrats have taken the governorships in large states. This will have
an effect in 2 years.
1:05
Brinkley: (Senate races)
Alaska - Republican ahead
Indiana - "too close" less than 4, 000 vote difference
Arizona - 32% of vote in - to early to call
Maine - Governor race - still too close
Nevada - Governor race - still too close
1:10
Rhode Island - Unable to call
1:15
1:20
1:25
1:30
1:35
? 10/13
Fla
poll? another 100?
Ind
need more $ - after 150+35 ?50
poll? Chot says 140 needed
NJ
does he need # - if so 200
another 100 Sen? -after 50
Uttah
need more # -after 50+40
?50-100
Untise
poll? charap
Wyo
poll? Chotsays need 36-sendy 50-medmm?
Missouri money .' 16 ptr behind.
California
- Tunney
55
Reagan
Connecticut
+ Weicher
41-33-26
markill
Florida
& Chiles
askew
Illinois
- Stevenson
Indiana
Maryland
+ Beall
mandel
Minnesota
= Humphay
anderson
Missouri
= symington
Nevada
= Cannon
New Jersey
= Williams 54-44
New Mexico
= montaya
King
New York
North Dakota
= Burdick Buckley 39-38-23
4
Ohio
Tennessee
+ Brock
Dunn
Texas
In
Bentsen
Smith
Utah
= mose
Vermont
= Prouty
59-40
Davis
=
Wyoming
mabe
Hathaway
HOUSE
p.3
WON COST DOUBTFUL NET CHANGE
new Jersey
6
none
new mexico
/
/
- /
New York
17
2
+2
n.c.
4
0
none
n.D.
/
/
-1
Ohio
17
/
-1
Oklahoma
2
0
none
Oregon
2
0
none
Penn.
13
0
none
R.I.
0
0
none
S.C.
/ 0
none
S.D.
0
2
-2
Jennessee
4
0
none
Texas
3
0
none
htah
/
/
-/
HOUSE
p.4
WON LOST DOUBTFUL NET CHANGE
Vermont
/
0
Virginia
6
0
+1
Wash,
/
/
-1 /
W. Va.
0
0
none
Wisconsin
6
/
-1 - /
Wyoming
0
/
-1 /
9 losses net
)
17 losses
8 wins
3 uncertain
)
HOUSE
WON LOST DOUBTFUL NET CHANGE
Alabama
3
0
none
alarha
0
/
-/
arizona
2
0
none
Arkansas
/
0
none
California
18
0
+1
Colorado
2
0
+1
Connecticut
2
0
none
Delaware
/
0
none
Honda
3
0
none
Georgia
2
0
none
Hawaii
0
0
none
Idaho
2
0
none
Allinois
12
0
none
Indiana
6
/
/
-/
HOUSE
p.2.
,
WON LOST DOUBTFUL NET CHANGE
Iowa
5
0
none
Kansas
4
/
- /
Kentucky
2
/
possible loss
Louisiana
0
0
none
maine
0
0
none
Maryland
3
/
- /
Mass.
4
0
/
/ possible loss
V
Michigan
12
0
none
Minnesota
4
/
-/ /
Mississippi
0
0
none
Missouri
/
0
none
Montana
0
0
none
Nebraska
3
0
none
Nevada
0
0
none
n.H.
2
0
none
for
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
October 23, 1970
MEMORANDUM FOR
THE PRESIDENT
FROM:
MURRAY CHOTINER
RE:
ILLINOIS CAMPAIGN
The polls show Senator Smith behind; the ORC poll says 4%;
Chicago Sun Times says 14%.
Senator Percy reports that he is being very candid and very
harsh. Only a miracle can save Smith.
As of now, Ray Page, who is running for State Superintendent
of Public Instruction has the best chance of winning. Kucharski,
who is running for State Treasurer, has the next best chance,
and Joe Woods, who is running for President of the Cook County
Board of Commissioners, is next.
Major concern is that Smith is trailing by such a large margin,
as to decrease the chances for the rest of the ticket. Ray Page
has been way ahead and even his staff is getting nervous now.
The negative tone of Smith's campaign and the heavy emphasis
being placed upon personal attacks against Stevenson has turned
off the suburbs and many people down-state. Down-state, Smith
is barely making it. These areas are normally Republican and
Smith is running 5 to 10 points behind what Percy received in 1966.
In Chicago, Smith is losing by a large margin and the only place
he has made any inroads in the Chicago area is with the ethnic
groups.
2
Stevenson's name is well respected. The prevailing feeling is
that he is a decent human being and should be given a chance.
He holds much promise for a distinguished career. It is regret-
ful that Smith is looked upon as an old-fashioned down-state
politician and not a statesman.
Percy feels the issues have changed considerably. Law and
order is no longer the major issue it was. He feels the economic
issue is the key one; others are rising prices, softness in
business, lack of factory orders. Percy feels the President must
have sensed this from the Business Council report.
Voter apathy is another key problem in Illinois. Percy himself
is keeping his tone optimistic and will continue to do SO. He is
hosting a "voter fest" tomorrow for Smith at the State Fair
grounds. He has invited all the workers from over the State in a
last ditch effort to build enthusiasm and get out the vote.
Percy feels something needs to be done to offset the Sun Times
poll, which showed Smith trailing badly. Another later Sun Times
poll shows Smith has picked up a little.
In Cook County it might be good to exploit the "Colorton scandal. If
Colorton is the county assessor who has been lowering real estate
taxes in return for political favors for Democratic candidates.
We should also capitalize on the popularity of other Republican candi-
dates urging them to talk up Smith, in particular, the incumbent US
Congressmen who are very popular in their own Districts.
We need a combined effort. Use of other key Republicans who were
defeated in the primary is good. For instance, John Altorfer, who
was a candidate against Ogilvie in the 1968 gubernatorial primary.
He is very popular.
Bill Rentschler, who was defeated by Smith in the primary this
year, is popular in the Chicago area.
Bill Scott, the Attorney General, is another very strong vote getter.
3
Joe Woods reports:
Smith is in trouble but not as badly as the Sun Times indicates.
Right now, Smith will be defeated.
Smith is campaigning very well.
The voting polls should be watched. For example, in the Second
Ward, Smith shows only 4. 9%.
The Eagle Eye election day operation will be in effect to watch for
chicanery at the polls.
Smith is behind now by 100, 000 votes.
4
Governor Ogilvie reports:
Smith is still behind by approximately 50, 000 to 75,000 votes.
The President's visit should be helpful.
The rest of the State ticket and the candidates for the Legislature
are in good shape.
Smith has overdone the issue of law and order.
The President should stress the efforts to obtain peace and his
need for cooperation in the Senate.
The Vice President did an excellent job on the law and order
issue; but the President repeating it would be redundant.
Smith has not done as well in suburban Cook County as he should
have.
This is a good area for the President to comment on the steps
being taken to insure peace in the Middle East.
Dummay
BACKGROUND MEMORANDUM (HRH/PJB)
SENATE AND HOUSE
At the campaign's opening in mid-September, Republican challengers
for the Senate were running behind in every state except Tennessee --
and private Administration polls unescapably toward the customary
loss of 30 seats in the House.
Because this conclusion was unacceptable to the President, when
victory or defeat for the ABM can hinge on a single vote, he abandoned
the tradition of remaining aloof, and involved himself fully in the
national effort.
His tremendous investment in time and prestige clearly paid off.
Losses in the House were cut to 10 -- a good victory when weighed
against the normal off-year losses; and a major victory when considered
in light of the dislocations in the economy as inflation is being brought
down and the nation moves from war to peace.
In the Senate, the President's intervention was clearly among the
decisive factors in the victorious races in Tennessee, Connecticut, Ohio
and Maryland -- and dramatically reversed for the Administration the
off-year trend of Senate losses gaining 2 seats politically. An ideological
gain of 3 was also attained. At the national level, on the national issues,
the Administration record was clearly endorsed and the campaign a
success.
2
Comparisons can be drawn with the off-year elections of 1954
and 1958 under the most popular President in recent American
history, Dwight Eisenhower. In 1970, under President Nixon,
Republicans gained two seats in the Senate, and lost 10 in the
House. In 1954, Republicans lost both Houses of Congress; in
1958, the GOP lost 47 House seats and 13 Senate seats.
GOVERNORS
Because of the number of Republicans running at the State House
level -- the gubernatorial arithmetic -- losses were to be expected
here -- and they took place. These were largely traceable to party
problems in Ohio and Florida -- and to local state tax problems in
Pennsy Ivania and Nebraska. In the Western states, where GOP
incumbents and challengers lost several close elections, the specific
dislocations of the economy, false charges of an expanding 6-1/2%
unemployment rate, and false chatter about the closing of federal
bases and installations underscored the economic issue.
While the losses at the gubernatorial level were significant - -
they were not extraordinary for the party in power. In 1970,
Republicans lost eleven Governorships; in 1954, the GOP lost nine;
and in 1958, the GOP lost seven.
1972
What does all this mean in terms of 1972? Is the President now
in deep trouble because of the erosion of the GOP political base? Hardly.
3
The comparison with 1960 is apt. Then Vice President Richard
Nixon running on a party base of 154 House members, 36 Senators
and 14 Governors, ran a dead heat, carrying twenty six states,
with a popular moderate Democratic Candidate, John F. Kennedy.
In 1972, Richard Nixon is not Vice President; he has all the power
and prestige of the Presidency; he has attained a level of national
approval never achieved in his Vice President President years --
and, if he runs, he will be running from a far stronger base than
1960 in every significant department -- 21 Governors, 175 Congressmen,
and 45 or 46 Senators.
This is a far stronger base than the GOP had in 1960 -- and
President Nixon is a far stronger candidate in every section of the
country than Vice President Nixon could possibly have been.
So, the time is not yet, to reach for the crying towel.
Also, the Republican Party's support among independents is far
stronger than it has ever been. Where the GOP can claim the
allegiance of but 28 per cent of the American people -- we have
41 per cent of the House seats, 42 per cent of the nation's Governors
and 45 per cent of the United States Senate and 100 per cent of
the Presidency.
ISSUES
The Democratic Party had one issue this campaign - - the
dislocations of an economy coming out of an inflationary spiral
4
and moving from war to peace -- and they played it for all it was
worth. In 1972 that issue will be gone; it will be a Republican issue
in 1972. The transition from war to peace will have taken place by
then giving us not only the stable economy issue, but the peace issue
in those fall elections.
We will have ended an inflation that they began -- we will have
ended successfully a war they couldn't end. Peace and prosperity
are the Republican arguments in 1972.
LEADERSHIP
One aspect overlooked in this election is the fulfillment of the
President's commitment of 1960 that if elected President, he would
be a party leader as well as a national leader. He invested the full
resources and prestige of his office, not only in tight races, but in
races where there was no opportunity at all -- because he is a
Republican President -- and because he is willing to stand with his
troops in victory or defeat -- as he has stood with them in every
victory or defeat since the national elections of 1952.
This is the story of 1970 -- a Republican President fighting
for his party candidates, reversing the off-year trends and maintaining
the strong national base that is vital to his policies and vital to future
party victories. Many good men went down running for Governor and
the Senate but they were not forgotten by the President in their fight --
and they will not be abandoned in their defeat.
BACKGROUND MEMORANDUM (HRH/PJB)
SENATE AND HOUSE
At the campaign's opening in mid-September, Republican challengers
for the Senate were running behind in every state except Tennessee
pointed
and private Administration polls 1 unescapably toward the customary
loss of 30 seats in the House.
Because this conclusion was unacceptable to the President, when
critical issues of freigh + defense policy
victory or defeat for the ABM can hinge on a single vote, he abandoned
the tradition of remaining aloof, and involved himself fully in the
national effort.
His tremendous investment in time and prestige clearly paid off.
9?
Losses in the House were cut to 10 -- a good victory when weighed
against the normal off-year losses; and a major victory when considered
in light of the dislocations in the economy as inflation is being brought
down and the nation moves from war to peace.
In the Senate, the President's intervention was clearly among the
going
decisive factors in the victorious races in Tennessee, Connecticut, Ohio
cover
and Maryland -- and dramatically reversed for the Administration the
note.
off-year trend of Senate losses gaining 2 seats politically. An ideological
gain of 3 was also attained. At the national level, on the national issues,
the Administration record was clearly endorsed and the campaign a
success.
2
Comparisons can be drawn with the off-year elections of 1954
and 1958 under the most popular President in recent American
history, Dwight Eisenhower. In 1970, under President Nixon,
Republicans gained two seats in the Senate, and lost 10 in the
House. In 1954, Republicans lost both Houses of Congress; in
1958, the GOP lost 47 House seats and 13 Senate seats.
GOVERNORS
Because of the number of Republicans running at the State House
level -- the gubernatorial arithmetic -- losses were to be expected
here -- and they took place. These were largely traceable to party
problems in Ohio and Florida -- and to local state tax problems in
Pennsylvania and Nebraska. In the Western states, where GOP
incumbents and challengers lost several close elections, the specific
dislocations of the economy, false charges of an expanding 6-1/2%
unemployment rate, and false chatter about the closing of federal
bases and installations underscored the economic issue.
While the losses at the gubernatorial level were significant -
they were not extraordinary for the party in power. In 1970,
Republicans lost eleven Governorships; in 1954, the GOP lost nine;
n156
56
and in 1958, the GOP lost seven.
1972
What does all this mean in terms of 1972? Is the President now
in deep trouble because of the erosion of the GOP political base? Hardly.
3
The comparison with 1960 is apt. Then Vice President Richard
Nixon running on a party base of 154 House members, 36 Senators
and 14 Governors, ran a dead heat, carrying twenty-six states,
with a popular moderate Democratic Candidate, John F. Kennedy.
In 1972, Richard Nixon is not Vice President; he has all the power
and prestige of the Presidency; he has attained a level of national
approval never achieved in his Vice President President years --
and, if he runs, he will be running from a far stronger base than
1960 in every significant department -- 21 Governors, 175 Congressmen,
and 45 or 46 Senators.
4
This is a far stronger base than the GOP had in 1960 -- and
President Nixon is a far stronger candidate in every section of the
country than Vice President Nixon could possibly have been.
So, the time is not yet, to reach for the crying towel.
Also, the Republican Party's support among independents is far
stronger than it has ever been. Where the GOP can claim the
allegiance of but 28 per cent of the American people -- we have
41 per cent of the House seats, 42 per cent of the nation's Governors
and 45 per cent of the United States Senate -- and 100 per cent of
the Presidency.
ISSUES
The Democratic Party had one issue this campaign -- the
dislocations of an economy coming out of an inflationary spiral
4
and moving from war to peace -- and they played it for all it was
worth. In 1972 that issue will be gone; it will be a Republican issue
in 1972. The transition from war to peace will have taken place by
then giving us not only the stable economy issue, but the peace issue
in those fall elections.
We will have ended an inflation that they began -- we will have
ended successfully a war they couldn't end. Peace and prosperity
are the Republican arguments in 1972.
LEADERSHIP
One aspect overlooked in this election is the fulfillment of the
President's commitment of 1960 that if elected President, he would
be a party leader as well as a national leader. He invested the full
resources and prestige of his office, not only in tight races, but in
races where there was no opportunity at all -- because he is a
Republican President and because he is willing to stand with his
troops in victory or defeat as he has stood with them in every
victory or defeat since the national elections of 1952.
This is the story of 1970 -- a Republican President fighting
for his party candidates, reversing the off-year trends and maintaining
the strong national base that is vital to his policies and vital to future
party victories. Many good men went down running for Governor and
the Senate but they were not forgotten by the President in their fight --
and they will not be abandoned in their defeat.
AP, November 6, 1970
Indiana Senate: Hartke 4,249 over Roueebush
Rhode Island Governor: Licht 2,710 over DeSimone
Oklahoma Governor: Hall 2,664 over Bartlett
Kentucky 3rd Dis. : Dem. Mazzoli 227 over Cowger
UPI-94
(GOVERNOR BY STATE)
0/0 OF
STATE PCTS
REPUBLICAN
DEMOCRAT
OTHERS
OTHERS
ALA
74
WALLACE E
CASHIN
SHELTON
511,410
106,700
68,184
ALASKA
75
MILLER-I
EGAN
ANDERSON
29,875
32,824
881
ARIZ
97
WILLIAMS-I E
CASTRO
202,375
196,045
ARK
82
ROCKFELR-I
BUMPERS 5
CARRUTH
147,211
290,603
27,710
CALIF
99
REAGAN-I E
UNRUH
SHEARER
ROMO
3,360,870
2,863,388
64,162
64,352
COLO
98
LOVE-I
E
HOGAN
PLANKNTN
349,158
300,599
2,025
CONN
100
MESKILL
1.1
DADDARIO
572,505
492,037
,
FLA
100
KIRK-I
ASKEW
5
727,651
958,569
GEO
89
SUIT
CARTER 5
390,777
561,424
HAW
100
KING
BURNS-1 E
109,573
137,10
IDA
99
SAMUELSN-I
ANDRUS
5
116,095
126,564
IOWA
100
RAY-I
E
FULTON
DILLEY
401,191
365,952
20,405
KANS
97
FRIZZELL
DOCKING-I E
SPERRY
316,784
383,195
4,707
ME
97
ERWIN
CURTIS-I
E
157,981
159,052
MAR
100
BLAIR
MANDEL-I
5
MERKLE
313,217
623,744
19,348
MASS
97
SARGENT-I E
WHITE
1,005,891
770,106
MICH
81
MILLIKEN-I
LEVIN
MCORMICK
1,173,134
1,019,887
14,930
MINN
95
HEAD
ANDERSON
51
590,345
688,399
NEBR
94
TIEMANN-I
EXON [s]
WALSH
182,473
228,120
9,894
NEV
96
FIKE
OCALAHAN 5
HANSEN
57,053
62,193
4,770
NHAMP
99
PETERSON-I
E
CROWLEY
THOMSON
103,326
98,923
22,083
NMEX
98
DOMENICI
KING 5
SEDILLO
SALAZAR
133,005
144,768
2,425
4,415
NYORK
99
ROCKFELR-I
E GOLDBERG
ADAMS
3,114,103
2,408,836
420,696
OHIO
100
CLOUD
GILLIGAN 5
LAWTON
1,378,597
1,716,288
61,757
OK LA
100
BARTLETT-I
HALL E
LITTLE
333,608
336,552
24,389
ORE
99
MCCALL-I E
STRAUB
356,040
284,087
PENN
100
BRODRICK
SHAPP E
WATSON
MCGEEVER
1,539,834
2,038,272
87,248
20,690
RI
100
DESIMONE
LICHT-I
167.008
169,556
SOCAR
95
WATSON
WEST E
BETHSA
204,998
235,535
9,221
SODAK
99
FACRAR-I
KNEIP E
105,950
128,931
TENN
99
DUNN [
HOOKER
HEINSOHN
566,375
502.518
24,519
TEX
96
EGGERS
SMITH-I E
1,003,385
1,148,297
VT
100
DAVIS-I
17
OBRIEN
86.135
65,106
WIS
100
OLSON
LUCEY E
MCDONALD
608,451
743,540
9,025
WYO
99
HATHAWAY-I E
ROONEY
73,060
43,520
(I INDICATES INCUMBENT)
X INDICATES ELECTED)
XXXXXXXX
(ABOVE AS OF NOON, EST)
11/4--GE&EG157PES
UPI-95
(SENATE BY STATE)
(AS OF NOON, EST)
0/0 OF
STATE PCTS
REPUBLICAN
DEMOCRAT
OTHERS
OTHERS
ALASKA 75
STEVENS-I E
KAY
37,766
25,203
ARIZ
.7
FANNINAI
1.7
GROSSMAN
ARIZ
97
FANNINAI
5 GROSSMAN
220,687
174,067
CALIF
100
MURPHY-I
TUNNEY 5
RIPLEY
SCHEER
2,822,704
3,422,295
63,000
55,568
CONN
100
WEICKER E
DUFFEY
DODD-I
443,008
360,094
260,264
DEL
100
ROTH E
ZIMERMAN
GIES
95,021
64,835
2,183
FLA
100
CRAMER
CHILES 5
750,226
880,197
HAW
100
FONG-I E
HEFTEL
123,334
116,039
ILL
96
SMITH-I
STEVENSN E
1,523,352
1,977,857
IND
100
ROUDBUSH
HARTKE-I
879,908
879,410
ME
97
BISHOP
MUSKIE-I E
121,093
194,913
MAR
100
BEALL E
TYDINGS-I
WILDER
479,985
450,233
10,779
MASS
97
SPALDING
KENNEDY-I E
677,849
1,134,981
MICH
81
RONNEY
HART-I 5
773,783
1,395,474
MINN
95
MACGREGR
HUMPHREY E
536,851
741,192
MISSI
96
STENNIS-I E THOMPSON
275,815
36,746
MO
99
DANFORTH
SYMINGTN-I
E CHAPMAN
604,895
642,212
10,078
MONT
92
WALLACE
MANFIELD-I E
84,285
132,341
NEBR
95
HRUSKA-I
E
MORRISON
220,231
200,221
NEV
96
RAGGIO
CANNON-I 5 DESELLEM
53,288
75,818
1,954
NJER
100
GROSS
WILLIAMS-I E
JOB
899,921
1,142,624
54,291
NMEX
98
CARTER
MONTOYA-I E
HIGGS
133,654
148,042
3,336
NYORK
99
GOODELL-I
OTTINGER
BUCKLEY E
1,426,912
2,131,223
2,263,186
NDAK
87
KLEPPE
BURDICK-I E
69,945
116,082
OHIO
100
TAFT E
METZNBAM
KAY
1,559,821
1,489,819
61,777
PENN
100
SCOTT-I
E
SESLER
GAYDOSH
MCFARLND
1,869,753
1,647,486
84,497
17,606
RI
100
MCLAGHLN
PASTORE-I 5
FENTON
104,917
224,903
2,418
TENN
99
BROCK E
GORI-I
PITARD
554,392
510,001
11,318
TEX
96
BUSH
BENTSEN
5
999,459
1,148,147
UTAH
100
BURTON
MOSS-I 5
FREEMAN
158,718
208,922
5,091
VT
100
PROUTY-I
in
HOFF
MEYER
89,921
61,156
1,392
VIR
99
GARLAND
RAWLINGS
BYRD-I 5
145,467
294,447
505,204
WASH
94
ELICKER
JACKSON-I E
150,388
783,055
WVA
100
DODSON
BYRD-I E
99,538
343,641
WIS
100
ERICKSON
PROXMIRE-I E HOU-SEYE
384,971
964,915
6,178
WYO
99
WOLD
MCGEE-I E
53,115
66,888
(I INDICATES INCUMBENT)
X INDICATES ELECTED)
11/4--EG210PES
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
November 17, 1970
MEMORANDUM FOR MR. FINCH
MR. HALDEMAN
MR. KLEIN
FROM:
W. Richard Howard
wRH
FIRST FAMILY SCHEDULING
I am attaching a summary of the political trips made by
the First Family during Campaign '70. I have also attached
samples of the press coverage they received.
I believe that the most important observation that can be
made about the campaign activities of the First Family is
that each person is a very effective drawing card. Press
coverage was extensive both before and after each visit
and was almost entirely positive. They all drew extremely
large crowds with little or no crowd building techniques.
For example, in Minot, North Dakota, Tricia received a
larger reception than the Vice President, and each member
of the First Family created much more public interest than.
any of the Cabinet officers.
The first political trips were covered by non-political activ-
ities, however, the final few visits were solely political
and these were the ones that created the most excitement.
Mrs. Nixon was extremely effective at large handshaking
receptions and would shake 8-9000 hands at a time. One of
Tricia's most effective political activities consisted of
shopping center drop-by's. She received great coverage as
she milled through the crowds. Although, Julie did not have
much available time for campaigning, she also drew large
reception crowds, and David is an effective speaker.
-2-
Because of my lack of direct communication with members
of the First Family, it took a while for me to discover
their likes and dislikes, but once these became obvious,
I could use them to increase the effectiveness of each
visit. Also, when I started scheduling for the First
Family, I found there had been some misunderstandings
on some of Tricia's earlier trips. After talking with
her directly several times, I believe we were able to
solve many of the previous problems.
I would recommend extensive individual political activities
by the First Family in the 1972 campaign, because of their
effectiveness. They should also be well supported, for it
is a waste of resources for any of them to take a trip
without competent advance preparations.
Finally, in preparation for 1972, I believe that the First
Family should start increasing their visibility immediately
by doing more TV talk shows, handling more special TV
events such as Tricia's tour of the White House, and
accepting more media interviews.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
November 12, 1970
FIRST FAMILY SCHEDULING
CALIFORNIA
October 7
Tricia
8
Tricia
14
David
30
Mrs. Nixon
31
Mrs. Nixon
November 1
Mrs. Nixon
CONNECTICUT
October 3
Tricia
12
Mrs. Nixon
FLORIDA
September 26
Julie and David
October 22
Mrs. Nixon
GEORGIA
October 1
Tricia
ILLINOIS
October 4
Julie and David
-2-
INDIANA
October 28
Mrs. Nixon
November 1
Tricia
MARYLAND
October 17
Mrs. Nixon
MICHIGAN
October 19
Mrs. Nixon
MINNESOTA
October 14
Tricia
19
Mrs. Nixon
MISSOURI
October 17
Julie and David
NEVADA
October 20
Mrs. Nixon
NEW JERSEY
October 21
Julie and David
26
Tricia
NEW MEXICO
October 13
David
NORTH DAKOTA
October 29
Tricia
-3-
OHIO
October 5
David
28
Tricia
31
Tricia
OKLAHOMA
October 28
Tricia
PENNSYLVANIA
October 20
Tricia
30
Julie and Mamie Eisenhower
SOUTH CAROLINA
October 19
David
UTAH
October 21
Tricia
WYOMING
October 29
Tricia
Tricia Shakes Many Hands
On Nonnolitical Visit To City
By ROBERT P. MOONEY
Miss Tricia Nixon's visit to Indianap-
olis yesterday turned out "nonpolitical"
although she shook a lot of hands,
signed many autographs and presented
four plaques to youth groups.
Senate GOP nominee Richard L.
Roudebush, who hopes to beat United
States Senator R. Vance Hartke (1)-
Ind.) in tomorrow's election. gallantly
welcomed Miss Nixon at Weir Cook
Municipal Airport and escorted her on
a hand-shaking trip among about 200
greeters.
ROUDEBUSH then hurriedly left to
attend a scheduled campaign event at
Brazil in Clay County, leaving the 24-
year-old daughter of President Richard
M. Nixon to carry out "nonpolitical"
duties at:
A youth rally in the Heslar Naval
Armory. 30th Street and White River
Parkway, which chmaxed National
Youth Week.
A reception in the home of Mr. and
Mrs. John Burkhart. 4333 Sylvan Drive,
where she was joined by Roudebush's
wife, Mrs. Marge Roudebush and Kar-
en Roudebush. 23, daughter of the nom-
inec.
MISS NIXON was besieged by a
large number of neighborhood youths
outside the Burkhart home. The attrac-
five blond accommodated youths who
requested her signature on the backs of
their hands, candy bar wrappers,
scraps of paper and even on one shoe.
The ankle-length rough leather shoe
belonged to Tim Marshall, 12, 3120
Shady Grove Court. The Marshall youth
is a pupil at St. Michael's Catholic
Turn to Page 14. Column 1
(Star Proto By Jerry Cla
PRESIDENT'S DAUGHTER GETS A 'FIRST' REQUEST
Miss Tricia Nixon Autographs Shoe Of Newspaper Carrier
PAGE 14
THE INDIA
Tricia Shakes Many Hands On Visit Here
Concluded From Page 1
GLASS. reached before making his
certain people cannot follow the rule
last appearance, confirmed that he had
of the game."
School and a carrier for The Indianapo-
canceled out because "I was afraid it
LUGAR presented a key to the cit
lis News.
might have political implications."
to Miss Nixon, as he did last week whe:
Miss Nixon, surprised when the boy
"However, I want to say now that I
her mother, Mrs. Pat Nixon, visite
removed his shoe and handed it to her,
might have made a mistake," he
Indianapolis, Greenwood and Anderso
exclaimed:
stressed.
in behalf of Roudebush.
"OH, THIS IS the first time I've
Glass said "nothing personal" should
Miss Nixon wore a bright red coa'
ever been asked to autograph a shoe."
be construed by his absence.
suit with red velvet cuffs. and a re:
She laughed and immediately signed
He said his crusade is solely for re-
velvet ribbon was stretched across he
hair.
the boot, making the newspaper carrier
ligious reasons and he felt it should not
hero of the neighborhood.
become involved in politics.
She wore pale hose which matcher
Mayor Richard G. Lugar was the
her light beige shoes.
principal speaker at the Naval Armory
"YOU HAVE a pretty hot fight going
SHE TOLD newsmen her mother has
meeting, which was attended by about
on here for the United States Senate,
commented following her return from
750 persons.
don't you?" he asked.
her Indiana visit last week on the warr
Evangelist Bill Glass, former college
Yet, he appeared surprised when in-
welcome she had received here.
and professional football star. was note-
formed that Roudebush d:d not appear
"Now. I'll have to tell her how nic-
worthy by his absence since it had been
at the youth rally with Miss Nixon.
everyone has been to me."
announced previously he also would
Hc said "both Republicans and Dem-
Asked if she had any boy friends
speak.
ocrats" attend and support his crusade
Miss Nixon blushed, then haltingly re
BRUCE B. MELCHERT. chairman
meetings and he did not want to be put
plied:
of the Marion County Young Republi-
into the position of having his followers
"I have a lot of boys who are friend
believe he was partial to either party.
I mean 1 have a lot of friends wt
cans, said Glass' absence could be at-
tributed to "polities."
"It was my own decision." he said.
are boys."
"but 1 would like for you to say that I
She said she never had visited th
"I think Glass personally wanted to
come." Melchert said. "But 1 think
might have made a mistake."
home of her grandmother. Mrs. Hann=
Milhous Nixon. who was a native (
that perhaps some Democrats who are
GLASS was an All-America sclee-
Jennings County.
helping him with The Greater Indian-
tion at Baylor University and played
"I'll have to come back and do tha
apolis Crusade objected."
12 years with the Detroit Lions and
when I have more time." she said.
Final appearance for the crusade
Cleveland Browns.
was last night in the State Fairgrounds
Miss Nixon at the youth rally
Coliseum. It started Oct. 25.
presented plaques to James Nichols,
representing Sing Out Midwest: Bruce
McKennon, for the Pike Township High
School band: Miss Bonita Hamman,
for the Calvary Tabernacle Youth
Choir and Richard Key, for the Marion
County 4-H clubs.
Sportscaster Sid Collins was master
of ceremonies.
MAYOR LUGAR gave credit to
high school pupils for taking matters
into their own hands a few years ago
when rowdyism and post-game hood-
lumism threatened to stop high school
sports programs.
"Because of student leadership, the
interscholastic athletic program in our
schools has been preserved," Lugar
said.
"We have pushed forward in this
area," the Mayor added. "We are not
going to terminate activities because
THE MINNEAPOLIS
STA
Copyright 1770 Minnespolis Star
Tuesday, Oct. 20, 1970
XCII-No. 282
Four Sections
*
Roses from First Lady After wife of Mrs. the Clark congressman MacGregor, and
Minneapolis Star Photo by Charles Bjorgen
introduced to her, Mrs. Nixon gave a rose to each of them. Elizabeth
Republican senatorial candidate presented a houquet of roses to Mrs. Pat
Collatz, 7, one of the youngsters who received a rose, said she is going
Nixon at Minneapolis-St Paul International Airport Monday, the First
to save it until Friday's show-and-tell session in her 2nd grade class at
Lady spotted several youngsters in the crowd. When the youngsters were
Lincoln School White Bear Lake. (Details: Page IC.)
St. Paul Pioneer Press
October 21, 1970
Page 5
Proneer 10/21 P5
Mrs. Nixon 'Very Encouraged'
About GOP Chances in State
By DOROTHY LEWIS
Stair Writer
"I feel very encouraged
- very encouraged about
Republican chances in
Minnesota." said Pat Nix-
on as she made her way
to the plane this morning
after her campaign trip to
the Twin Cities.
The First Lady was met
at Minneapolis-St. Paul
International Airport for
her departure by Mrs.
Clark MacGregor. wife of
the senatorial hopeful,
who had been out cam-
paigning at various facto-
ry gates from 5 a.m. to-
day.
Mrs. Nixon. on her ar-
rival at the airport,
waved a happy "good
marning!" to well-wish-
ers, then joined several
Republican women for
some picture-taking he.
side the MacGregor
"bandwagon." a blue sta-
tion wagon decorated with
wild decals.
SHE TOLD Mrs. Mac-
Gregor she had a "won-
derful night's sleep," and
looking skyward. com-
mented. "What a beauti-
-Statf Photo
ful morning it is!"
PAT NIXON BIDS GOODBY AS SHE BOARDS PLANE
"Wearing a burgundy taf-
After Compaign Visit to Twin Cities
feta coat with a filmy pink
debt her husband incurred
scarf and pink gloves. she
fly over her birthplace,
shook hands with every-
10 years ago."
Ely, Nev.
She smiled at the re-
one within reach as she
Mrs. Nixon, whose fa-
walked beside her secre-
porter who asked it and
tary, Mrs. Helen Smith, to
said, "I love campaign-
ther. William Ryan. was a
board the C140 Air Force
ing. I'm enjoying every
prospector at the time.
minute of it."
plane. It was the same
was born in Ely in 1912.
She added she was "not
plane that carried her
Later her family moved
a bit tired" and was ready
daughter. Tricia, to Min-
to a farming community
for the next leg of her
near Los Angeles.
nesota a week ago.
journey.
Asked if this would end
Poised and pleasant.
SHE SAID she would
her campaigning. she
she ignored a question re-
wind up her present trip
said. "Oh, no. I'll be off
ferring to her trip here as
today in Reno and Carson
again Thursday to Flori-
"payment of a political
City, Nev., and would also
da."
THE SUNDAY STAR
Washington, D. C., November 1, 1970
United Press International
Associated Press
David and Julie Eisenhower share laughs with Mrs. Nelson
Tricia Nixon smiled at well wishers in Canton, Ohio last
Gross during a rally Oct. 21 in Newark, N. J. Gross is a GOP
Wednesday where she made a brief appearance for U.S.
senatorial candidate.
Rep. Frank T. Bow, R-Ohio (at left).
Nixon Kids Trail Votes
David, Girls Campaign in 16 States
By VERA GLASER
balance of power in U.S. elec-
introduced the enbernatorial
gress "more helpful" to Mr.
area for the handicapped
mand of every American cltl-
Special to The Star
tions, but who appear apathet-
candidate's daughter to her
Nixon.
came about because David's
zen."
The Nixon kids are lending
ic this year.
own father as "Miss Nixon."
"Tricia's visit helped identi-
godfather's sister has an inter-
He plugged gubernatorial
sparkle to a ho-hum political
"Send Tricia in." was the
in Columbia, S.C., White
fy me with that vote," Mac-
first thing California Sen.
House aide Harry Dent pulled
est in the project.
canditate Albert Watson "be-
year.
Gregor said. Iie said she told
By election day the Presi-
George Murphy told President
out all stops by welcoming Da-
the crowd, "my father and I
The trip took on political
cause he is the kind of man
dent's daughters Tricia and
Nixon when he asked how to
vid as "the man who will one
are familiar with Clark Mac-
overtones when Gov. Claude
the President can work with."
Julie, and Julie's husband Da-
help in Murphy's re-election
day be President of the United
Gregor's work and consider
Kirk and senatorial hopeful
Watson has been accused of
vid Eisenhower, will have
race.
States!"
him one of the finest men in
William Cramer latched on to
fomenting racial tensions.
campaigned for Republican
Then Murphy added, like an
No one at the White House
Congress."
the event.
candidates in 10 states.
afterthought, "and please come
will estimate the number of
The kids have encountered
Last year Tricia tried to
yourself if you can."
bids for appearances that have
Tricia, who has a special ad-
avoid campairming. She is
some tounts but so far no
Serubbed, bright, and natu-
ral, they are better looking
poured in for Tricia, Julie and
known to dislike it, but her
miration for Sen. Murphy for
hostile demonstrations.
Tricia Charms
David, but it is believed to run
than Vice President Spiro T.
father sweet-talked her into
whom she once worked, spent
stumping for Virginia Gov.
an extra day barn-storming
In St. Paul, a lad shouted at
into the thousands.
Agnew and less controversial.
"Golly, all you have to do is
From the entire pile Tricia
for him in California.
Tricia, "tell your old man we
Linwood Holton.
Candidates lucky enough to
look to see the effect she's
accepted 10. The Julie-David
Now she appears to be en-
don's dig napalm!"
rate a visit from the kids get
having," gushed a congress-
team took four, and David
joying herself on the hustings.
David In California
In Si. Louis, at a Boy Scout
a publicity bonanza.
man in Atlanta where Tricia,
made four solo appearances.
Crowds, cameras and ro-
struggling with two dozen red
Julie and David have turned
Baseball buff David had his
camporee, the young Eisen-
"We decide on our own,"
porters are suro to follow
roses and a pink stuffed elo-
on their charm in other states
heart set on attending the Na-
howers took exception to the
Julie said when asked how the
wherever fairhaired Tricia,
phant, opened the southeast-
with touch-and-go or leaning-
selections were made.
tional Leauge playoff in Cin-
view that they aren't in tune
peppery Julie, and gangly Da-
ern fair before a jubilant
Democratic Senate races.
cinnati, with senatorial hope-
with their own generation.
vid go.
crowd of 500.
Tight Races
They've been to Illinois, Mis-
ful Robert Taft Jr., and David
Their "un-Hippic" qualities
So flustered was William
souri, New Mexico, Ohio, New
personally chose to appear in
"The media sometimes give
pack a wallop with middle-
Hartsfield, the former Atlanta
But behind the seenes a
Jersey, and Florida.
San Francisco at the dedica-
the impression that all youth
aged voters, said to hold the
mayor who officiated, that he
committee of three hard boiled
tion of a memorial park to his
goes to rock concerts," Julis
White House S It 5
Neat Scheduling
grandfther, the late presi-
said. "Okay, we don't smoke
screens and co-ordinates the
dent.
young people's bookings.
In a neat bit of scheduling,
The trio's visits are swift.
marijuana and we don't go to
They are presidential assist-
the trio's personal preferences
Traveling with secret service
rock festivals, although we
ants Murray Chotiner and
have been tied into the admin-
escorts, they fly usually in and
like rock.
Harry Dent and communica-
istration's political priorities,
tions director II rb Klein.
as when Julie and David flew
out in a day, using a small
A look at the kid's schedule
to Chicago to campaign for
private jet. The Republican
Not 'Odd'
National Committee picks up
"But I don't feel odd in a
shows they are being used
Cook County Sheriff Joseph
the tab.
crowd and haven't on two col-
mainly in states with tight sen-
Woods, brother of President
Nixon's secretary Rose Mary
David is becoming a deft
lege campuses. If I did, I'd
atorial or gubernatorial races.
Woods, a close family friend.
off-the-euff speaker who usual-
think I was out of it."
Tricia helped in California,
Utah, North Dakota, Indiana
a n hile, they made
ly begins with, "I'm here as a
On Tuesday, Nov. 3, when
and Pennsylvania.
points for incumbent Sen.
representative of the Nixon
the votes are counted, It will
Ralph T. Smith, in a tough
family," then touches the is-
be next to impossible to figure
Minnesota Voters
contest with Adlai Stevenson
sues.
the impact of Tricia, David,
III.
In Columbia, S.C., he drew
and Julie.
In Minnesota, where Rep.
On that trip the kids waded
applause with, "Law and or-
But if they're not a net
Clark MacGregor is the under-
into a crowd of 3,500 in the
der is not a code world for
plus, a lot of political pros
dog in a Senate race against
Conrad Hilton Hotel ballroom,
racism but the legitimate de-
stand ready to eat their hats.
Herbert II. Humphrey, a state
shaking hands and chatting.
poll recently showed 57 per-
Their visit to Tallahassee,
cent of the voters want a Con-
Fla., to dedicate a recreation
MEMORANDUM
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
October 7, 1970
TO:
Harry Dent
FROM:
Tom Lias Tom
SUBJECT:
Tennessee Budget
The Brock campaign budget was originally set at 1.1
million. Of this, some $700,000 was scheduled for
media - the rest was for polling, research, adminis-
tration, etc. To date, they have raised and spent
$750,000. They have another $250,000 obligated. Of
this, $150,000 goes to television, and $50,000 each to
newspaper and radio advertising. This leaves them
about $100,000 short of what they think they need but
don't think they can raise. If they got the $100,000,
they would spend half of it on television advertising
and half on newspaper and radio advertising. Their
advertising schedule for weekly papers is set and they
are satisfied that it is adequate. They feel the daily
newspaper advertising schedule is short. They have
radio saturation coverage for only the last three days
before election. They would like to expand this
saturation coverage to include the last full week.
Television coverage is now at 650 gross rating points
for the last week. They would like to expand that to
1,000 gross rating points. 95% of the television pro-
duction has been completed. They are hoping to do
some video tapes in connection with a hoped-for Presi-
dential visit and run those tapes in a series of spots
and perhaps a thirty-minute Presidential show. In
short, they feel they need an additional $100,000, and
they say they know exactly how they'd spend it.
30
Bor I suggest H - we provide
50- 100 more.
DSD
THE ELECTIONS OF '70 & 172
"The Real Majority" by Scammon and Wattenburg contains a
credible and workable blueprint for our defeat in 1972. Its three
hundred pages contain a realistic cogent strategy for a liberal
Democrat in 1972. However, the presentation of that strategy
points up a counter-strategy which Republicans are going to have
to adopt if they are not to lose the historic opportunity we have
had for the last five years.
We can no longer count on our Democratic friends to
cooperate in their own demise -- as they have in recent year S.
Liberals are waking up all over America. Columnists like Breslin
and Harriet Van Horne and Mankiewicz, peaceniks like Sam Brown,
politicians like HHH, Muskie and Lindsay are clearly moving on a
new tough course a course outlined in this book. They have
begun talking of law and order; they have ceased apologizing for
student militants and black radicals; they are silent on bussing.
We are no longer going to win the race for Middle America by default.
The Democrats are moving to win back their white collar defectors
and they are going about it the Scammon-Wattenburg way.
Attached is a comprehensive review of their analysis and
strategy for Democratic victory. Appended is the outline of a
counter-strategy we should follow in the 1970 elections.
THE HEART OF THE BOOK
Given the President's ability to wind down the war in 1972
and relatively stabilize the economy, Presidential elections
throughout the coming decade will turn on the "Social Issue". First
discovered by Goldwater and Wallace, the Social Issue is now the
issue on which Middle America will vote if one candidate is on
the wrong side as Humphrey was in 1968. This social issue embraces
drugs, demonstrations, pornography, disruptions, "kidlash",
permissiveness, violence, riots, crime. The voters will not tolerate
"a liberal". on these issues, and will vote against him on this issue
alone as victories for hard-liners Daley in Chicago, Maier in Milwaukee,
Stenvig in Minneapolis and Yorty in Los Angeles clearly demonstrated.
It is "in the center of American politics that victory lies" and
polls conclusively show that the center of American politics today wants
2
tougher administrators on campus, a crackdown on crime, pornography
and drugs. If the Democrats do not move into that center position on
the "Social Issue", then "goodbye Democrats",
"It is the judgment of the authors that the manner in
which the Democratic Party handles the Social Issue will
largely determine how potent a political force the party
will be in America in the years to come. 11
THE RISE OF CONSERVATISM
From 1963 to 1969 the number of those identifying themselves
as "conservative" has risen from 46 to 51 percent while those
identifying as "liberal" has nose-dived from 49 to 33 percent.
Summer 1969 (Gallup)
(The Way Americans Identify Themselves)
Conservative Moderate Conservative Moderate Liberal No Opinion
Liberal
23
28
18
15
16
In any normal election the moderate conservative (Republican)
should have an advantage over the moderate liberal (Democrat). However,
what this simple analysis fails to take into consideration is that when
individuals consider themselves "conservative", it is "conservative" on
the social issue Americans will not abide a "liberal" on the social
issue. At the same time, however, polls show Americans clearly
favor medicare, aid to cities, anti-poverty efforts, aid to education --
issues traditionally defined as "liberal". How do we explain the
dichotomy. Say the authors:
11
the attitudinal center of American politics today
involves progressivism on economic issues and toughness
on the "Social Issue".
The party that can hold this center will win the Presidency.
THE SOUTH
'When the Democratic vote goes from 72 percent in 1944 to
31 percent in 1967, something has happened, and it has been some-
thing tidal
The Democrats in the South were hurt by being
3
perceived (correctly) as a pro-black national party, but they were
also hurt by the other nonracial aspects of the Social Issue that had
become identified with liberal Democrats: soft on crime, "kidlash",
morals and disruption
The villains in Agnew's tirade were almost
exclusively white (kids) - but throughout the South bumper stickers
blossomed reading "Spiro is my hero", and a Southern politician was
quoted as saying he was voting for Agnew in 1972 and if that meant
voting for Nixon, so be it
In no southern state are there enough
Presidential Democrats to put together a statewide majority
Although the divorce may not be final the question now is which of
the two suitors the South will accept: "Wallaceite or Republican".
CRUCIAL QUESTION FOR '70s
"The key election fact of the seventies is that Democrats,
by carrying non-southern states of Quadcali (California plus the
Northeast Quadrant from Wisconsin to Massachusetts*) can win
national elections without the South, although it is more difficult than
it used to be. Assuming that Republicans stay near the center, the
electoral question of the seventies is whether the Democrats will be
able to cope with the Social Issue electoral forces at work in the
society and, by coping, hold together the FDR Coalition and build
upon it.
"As this book is being written in the early part of the year 1970
the votes of the unyoung, unpoor, unblack Quadcalians are still very
much up for grabs. The machinist's wife in Dayton may decide to
leave the Democratic reservation in 1972 and vote for Nixon or
Wallace or their ideological descendants. If she thinks that Democrats
feel that she isn't scared of crime but that she's really a bigot, if
she thinks that Democrats feel that the police are Fascist pigs, and that
the Black Panthers and the Weathermen are just poor, misunderstood,
picked-upon kids, if she thinks that Democrats are for the hip cultures
and that she, the machinist's wife, is not only a bigot but a square,
then goodbye, lady -- and goodbye Democrats. 11
(Quadcali consists of the Northeast Quadrant of the country
from Wisconsin to Massachusetts including California; the authors
say it is the key to victory in Presidential elections; and they dump
generously on Border State Strategies and "Sun Belts" etc. This
is the weakest part of the book. It is an effort to contrast their
approach with the Phillips Approach by suggesting Phillips wants
to trade Illinois for Alabama, or New Jersey for Mississippi, which
is nonsense. Basically, there is much in common between the two
strategies more than Scammon and Wattenburg would care to admit. )
4
ON LOW-KEY & "LOCAL" CAMPAIGNING
"And how many people can be assembled to hear or even
glimpse a candidate in the flesh on a given day? Twenty-five thousand?
Fifty thousand? A hundred thousand? Two hundred and fifty thousand?
A two minute clip on each of the three network news shows during the
campaign will yield the candidate an audience of many tens of million
Americans! Hubert Humphrey or Richard Nixon will be seen by more
residents of New Jersey if he says something fairly noteworthy in
Oregon than if he says something banal in Trenton, Montclair, Newark,
Camden, and Tenafly all in the same day. "
What about the shot in the arm given party workers by the
personal appearance?
"There is probably some limited truth to this, but again one
must remember that far more party workers throughout the nation
are enthused seeing their candidate in an effective two-minute spot
on a news-broadcast appearance on television than can be enthused by
a candidate's visit to Weehawken, Union City, Bergen and Short Hills
"
The people in New Jersey, like the rest of Americans will be
judging their Presidential choices largely on the basis of national
television, national magazines, national columnists, and national
reporters appearing in their local newspapers and largely on national
issues and national images. 11
"LIBERALISM AND BUSSING"
"All of this represents the beginnings of a strategy for liberals
in the seventies. Beware of the 'liberal' label but do not be despondent
about the liberal program
Beware of the Social Issue. It cuts
deep and must be approached on little cat feet. There is learning as
well as leading to do. There can be no pandering to disruption or
crime; the public is not buying the notion that there are not bad boys,
only bad environments
"
REPUBLICAN AWARENESS
"There can be no question that a good deal of Republican
gardening will be done on the Social Issue. When Vice President
Agnew says:
5
'The rank-and-file Democrat in this country does
not share the philosophy of permissiveness expressed
by the best publicized moral and intellectual leaders of
our society. He read with disgust all the rave reviews
the press gives the latest dirty movie or dirty book
I
then it is clear that the Republicans are aware of this strategy. "
FORMULAS FOR SUCCESS
'This is the nature of centrism. Democrats must heal the
wound of the Social Issue. Republicans must prove that they are
the party of Middle America and not of the fat cats. "
A FOURTH PARTY
"Furthermore, unlike the Wallace situation, an extreme left
party would take almost all its votes from one party the Democratic
Party. If it ever got strong, then, it could only be a "spoiler" ensuring
Republican victories. As a weak party, however, an extreme left
party might be helpful to Democrats, by getting the crazies out of
the tent, decreasing the identification of 'Democrats' as radicals. 11
LINDSAY & CHARISMA
Charisma counts in an election, but it only makes the difference
when both candidates have acceptable positions on the Social Issue.
The Lindsay charisma did little for him when we consider that three
of five New Yorkers voted against returning him in the mayoralty in
the most liberal city in America. Had the "oppositionist" vote not
been divided, even the wholly uncharismatio figure of Mario Procacino
would have cleaned up the floor with him.
Lindsay, in effect, scored a "victory defeat".
-
"What other phrase better describes the results of an
election in which a politician with national aspirations pulls
only one in four votes of the 'white workingman', or if one
chooses to look at Lindsay specifically as a potential
Democratic candidate, what kind of recommendation is it to
say that he received fewer than half the Jewish votes the
last time out. "
6
As of today, if Lindsay were nominated as a Democrat, RN
would crush him. If he were nominated as a Republican, he could
conceivably bring about the election of George Wallace -- so much
for Big John.
MYTHS & ASSERTIONS
1. The authors proceed to explode one popular press myth
after another in this volume.
Myth No. 1: The vote in the primaries and general election
in 1968 was a vote "against Vietnam".
McCarthy, the "dove" in New Hampshire, only got 18% of the
total vote in that state and a University of Michigan survey showed
that 60% of the McCarthy votes were from hawks dissatisfied that
LBJ had not done enough to end the war. In addition, at the time
of New Hampshire, by 51 to 40 percent Americans did not want to stop
the bombing; by 44 to 36 percent Americans favored an invasion of
North Vietnam. Candidates and press may have been talking
about it, but Vietnam was not the voting issue of 1968.
The contention that the McCarthy vote in the Wisconsin Primary
was an anti-war vote seems implausible on the following grounds:
That same day an anti-war amendment in dovish Madison was defeated
58-42; a law-and-order pro-LBJ Major (Maier) won over a liberal
anti-war candidate 86-14; LBJ was still leading McCarthy two-to-one
nationally; and Republicans who would later vote for "hawkish" RN
crossed over by tens of thousands to vote for Eugene.
Finally, in the last Wisconsin full page ads of RN, LBJ and
McCarthy, in the Wisconsin primary, not a single one mentioned the
word Vietnam -- though the media played it as the key to the election.
Myth No. 2: The Conventions were rigged the popular choices
Rockefeller and McCarthy denied nomination by the bosses.
Nonsense Nixon and Humphrey were far and away the
popular choices of their parties (RN over Rocky 60-23; HHH over
McCarthy 58-38) and thus the only Democratic choices. Rigged
conventions are exceptional. The only convention in the last twenty-five
years where the candidate with the widest support in his party was not
nominated was Goldwater in 1964.
7
Myth No. 3: By forging a coalition of the young, the poor and
the black and the intellectuals, the Democrats can put together a new
and winning coalition. Scammon and Wattenburg believe this a
prescription for disaster. First, the young and the poor and the black
vote is the lowest percentage: of any groups in America. Secondly, the
young and the poor are hardly monolithic in voting patterns. A poor
white from the Midwest was a likely Nixon voter; a poor white in the
South a Wallace voter, and a poor black in the cities a Humphrey
voter. Neither are the young monolithic in their voting patterns.
More than any other group to vote, they tend to vote like their parents.
In addition, as a group 21-29 year olds are more hawkish than the
over-50s; Wallace did his best among the 21-29 group.
As for the intellectuals, those with college degrees are more
likely to vote Republican than Democratic. If you are talking about
Ph. D. S the Democratic vote is greater here but the number of
voters is SO miniscule as to be irrelevant.
True, blacks are solidly Democratic but it is also
true that among races black voting percentages are the lowest--
"
the 'drop-off' alone in the Wallace vote in
the last six weeks of the campaign was about equal
to the total number of black votes cast in 1968. "
We must face facts, say the authors: the average voter is
unpoor, unyoung, unblack, unintellectual. The average voter is a
47-year-old housewife from Dayton, Ohio, whose brother-in-law
is a cop and who is herself married to a machinist. Even if the voting age is
dropped to 18 the average voter is still well over forty years of age.
"You can knock the 'liberal intellectuals' out of the
Democratic coalition, and you've lost the front bumper;
knock out the black vote, and you've lost the fenders and
the back seat; but knock out labor, Middle America, or
the unpoor, unyoung, unblack, and you've lost the engine,
and the car won't run. This is an unpleasant fact to some,
but fact it is. 11
Further, it is interesting to note that in 1968, 22 percent
of the population could be considered "poor"; by 1972 that figure will
be down to 15 percent; further:
8
"
of the poorest dozen states in the nation, six went
for Nixon, five went for Wallace and only one for Humphrey.
The richest state in the nation Connecticut--went for HHH. "
(However, it is true that the pool of non-voting black
represents a great plus for Democrats if they can get them registered
and voting, since unlike the poor and young -- blacks do vote in blocs
Democratic blocs.
"Six in seven voters are over thirty. Nine out of ten are unpoor,
nine out of ten are white. 11
'PACKAGING NIXON
Myth No. 4: The "packaging" of RN won him the election.
Ridiculous. All candidates are packaged to one degree or another.
But Stenvig won in Minneapolic with $3, 600 spent. While HHH was
saying he was running poorly in the polls because of RN's TV,
Muskie was running 17 points ahead of Agnew in polls --yet Agnew
had the same TV exposure as RN, and Muskie as Humphrey. "Voters
are not nitwits. " RN was ahead because he
11
was more closely attuned to the temper of a
larger segment of the electorate than was his opposition. He
was a man for the season. That may sound simplistic; it is
simplistic and accurate
The feelings that Nixon
capitalized on were not part of a Southern Strategy or a
Border State Strategy they were part of a national
strategy that was attuned to the national malaise we have
discussed earlier
It may be said in fact that Agnewism
as a social thought won the election for Nixon, while Agnew,
the individual, almost lost it for him. "
Myth No. 5: The Kennedy victory in Gary, uniting hard hats
and blacks, showed how formidable he would be in a general election.
Again no such thing, contend the authors. RFK won the blacks and the
union workers; but he did not have to compete against either Wallace or
HHH, each of whom would have had tremendous drawing among one
or the other of these groups.
"The authors also go to lengths to show how RFK moved to
the Center throughout the primaries by abandoning his early frenzied
campaigning pace, by clipping his hair, speaking in low-keyed voice,
9
accusing McCarthy of seeking to have blacks from Watts forcibly integrated
in Orange County, talking to Indiana's concern about riots, war and
Communism. Say the authors, Bobby was not selling out, but
simply addressing himself to concerns of a country where half
the women are afraid to go out at night.
WALLACE '72
In 1972 Wallace should, as he did in 1968, take seven million
votes from Nixon and three million from the Democrat.
PRIMER FOR DEMS
Chapter Twenty of the book offers Democrats a Primer on
precisely how to phrase their appeal to the voters. Example:
Do Not Say: 'Well, I don't agree with the Students
for a Democratic Society when they invade a college
president's office, but I can understand their deep sense
of frustration. I
Do Say: 'When students break thelaw they will be
be treated as lawbreakers. 111
Example:
The Democrats made a disasterous error in saying "Law
and order is a code word for racism. 11 This is a losing position on the
Social Issue they should say "I am for civil rights and against
crime. 11 They should not link the two.
ON CANDIDATES
A Presidential aspirant must above all be a "take charge guy".
Humphrey would have been better off had he come down on one side
or the other on Vietnam rather than leaving the impression of
being wishy-washy.
10
CONCLUSION
"To know that the lady in Dayton is afraid to walk the
streets alone at night, to know that she has a mixed view
about blacks and civil rights because before moving to the
suburbs she lived in a neighborhood that became all black,
to know that her brother-in-law is a policeman, to know that
she does not have the money to move if her new neighborhood
deteriorates, to know that she is deeply distressed that her
son is going to a community college where LSD was found on
the campus to know all this is the beginning of contemporary
political wisdom. 11
11
15,000
THE CAMPAIGN OF 1970
Given this Scammon-Wattenburg thesis which is
right on the mark for Democrats we are in serious danger of
being driven back to our minority party posture. Our needs seem
crystal clear.
1. We cannot allow the Democrats to get back on the right
side of the Social Issue. This they are attempting to do right now
with tough talk, etc. They have to be branded and the brand must
stick as permissivists, as indulgent of students and black rioters,
as soft on crime. This can be accomplished with their record in the
last Congress. But for us to contest with them primarily on the
Economic Issue Big Spenders, etc. as the major assault seems
not a prescription for success. Republicans for forty years have
been tarring Democratic Congresses with "Big Spender labels,
and Democrats have been winning those Congresses, 10, these same
Forty Years.
The focus should be on tarring them with "ultra-liberalism"
and "radicalism" -- especially on the Social Issue where we are
strong and they are weak.
2. Where are the swing voters in 1970? We must assume
left-wing Democrats are going for their Democratic Candidates and
Republicans are going for Republicans, come hell or high water.
The swing voters are thus Democrats law and order Democrats,
conservatives on the "Social Issue", but "progressive" on domestic
issues. This is the Wattenburg thesis -- and it is basically correct.
How to conduct ourselves then.
A.
Tar the Democratic Leadership specifically with the "radical"
label on social policy; tar them as well with the "obstructionist"
label on the President's programs for reforming society, for getting
America moving; tar them as for bussing -- and against our crime
control legislation.
Frankly, we should go after the "Daley Democrats " - but
we cannot get these voters by using rehashed Republican arguments
or stale Republican rhetoric.
12
"Big Spenders" is a theme that 'might work, will work, with
our Republicans we are using it in all our GOP literature - - but
will it have any real bite with the union guy to whom big spending may
mean the medicare for his mom or old man? (Foot-dragging Congress
does not seem charged with much electricity, either.)
3. Scammon contends that a hard-line on riots etc. by
Democrats may anger "liberals", but liberals have no place to go
anyhow except the Democratic Party. Just so, regular Republicans
have no place to go in 1970 (no Wallace) but the GOP. So, let's
go straight after the Daley Democrats.
4. We should win these Democrats to the Presidential
banner by contending that RN is a progressive on domestic policy
blocked by "obstructionists" in the left-wing leadership of the
Democratic Party; that RN is a hard-liner on crime, drugs and
pornography, whose legislation is blocked by "ultraliberals" in the
Senate who care so much about the rights of the criminal that they
forget about the rights of society; that the President is a man
trying with veto after veto to hold down the cost of living but is
being thwarted by radicals and wild spenders who would, given the
chance, create the kind of inflation that would put Indonesia in its
heyday in the shade; that the President is a man in foreign policy
who is moving toward peace with honor but whose efforts are being
attacked and undercut by unilateral disarmers and isolationists
who think peace lies in an abject retreat from the world and the
dismantling of the Army, Navy and Air Force. This is said strong -
but these would be the ways we could best appeal to the patriotic,
hard-line pro-medicare Democrats who are the missing element
in the Grand New Party.
5. There is no conflict between garnering national publicity
and helping local Senate candidates the two are thoroughly complimen-
tary.
The Democrats see Seammon's book are only now
coming around to recognize what we knew in 1966 and 1968 that a
strong statement in Oregon is more effective in getting to voters in
New Jersey than a banal statement in Trenton, Tenafly, Newark and
Elizabeth. The way to help the Senatorial Candidate is to praise
him to the skies, fine but to hammer the national Democratic
Leadership in a manner that will keep our big press corps excited
and with us; that will get network time every night if possible with
our message; and so help every Republican Senatorial Candidate
while we are helping the local one.
13
All we have to do to forfeit that national publicity is run
around talking about "cattle and oil" in Casper, as has been suggested
already. We ought to remember also, that when we give up the
television time on the networks someone else, namely our
Democratic friends, gets it.
A hard-hitting tough campaign can help bring home Senators
and Congressmen who live or die on a few national percentage points.
6. Clearly, from the Scammon book, we should tar the
liberal Democrats as being not only the party of "bugout" but the
party of bussing, the advocates of "compulsory integration, 11 the
party whose last Attorney General banged down the door in Chicago
in order to testify on behalf of the Chicago Eight, the leadership
that let this country turn into the porno capital of the world, and is
blocking RN's effort to change that. Also, the Democratic Leadership
has altered its historic foreign policy position to kow-tow to student
radicals who bully-ragged those same leaders in the streets of
Chicago, etc. The Democratic Leadership should be portrayed as
selling out to the crazies in their own ranks and selling out the
interests and views of the good patriotic Democrats who number in
the millions. We 'might even say LBJ was destroyed by the
"ultra-liberals" in his own party.
7. We should stay on the offensive, taken the "out" (and
offensive) position even though we are the "ins" (and defensive) by
hammering at the "liberal Eastern Establishment" that is resp onsible
for what has happened to America, the "Establishment" that is
frustrating our efforts to right the wrongs in Society, the Establishment
whose wards are tearing up the colleges, the Establishment that
indulges rioters, etc. (Of course, said in better phraseology, but
the need to be on the offensive, to act as "outs" seems vital.)
8. The Economic Issue. To get into a debate on whether or
not we are in a "recession" seems an utterly foolish idea since
the very discussion of "recession" is surely not going to help us
and since anyone who is hurt in the current economic situation is
not likely to be convined he is not being hurt by anybody's rhetoric.
Rather than debate whether or not the investors and brokers and
unemployed are being hurt, let's go after the Democratic radicals
whose wild schemes are frustrating our efforts to stop the rise
in prices. This is the Big Spender theme but in different rhetoric,
tougher rhetoric, equating the Democrats with the same kind of
ultraliberalism in spending that they follow on the Social Issue.
Call them ultra-liberals.