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To: H.R. Haldeman From: Gordon Strachan RE: RNC survey on Cap Weinberger's chances of defeating Alioto in the San Francisco mayoralty race. Memo from Dent and RNC survey (05/17/1971) to analyze problems involved in defeating Alioto attached. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 5/25/1971
The California Poll report, released by Field Research Corporation, Release #706, titled "Reagan's Voter Popularity Slips," written by Marvin D. Field. 5 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 3/4/1971
Derge Telephone Survey Polling Questions on the approval or disapproval of Nixon's handling of the Presidency for Northern California and Southern California. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 7/11/1970
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WHSF: Contested, 44-11
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This file contains:
To: H.R. Haldeman From: Gordon Strachan RE: RNC survey on Cap Weinberger's chances of defeating Alioto in the San Francisco mayoralty race. Memo from Dent and RNC survey (05/17/1971) to analyze problems involved in defeating Alioto attached. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 5/25/1971
The California Poll report, released by Field Research Corporation, Release #706, titled "Reagan's Voter Popularity Slips," written by Marvin D. Field. 5 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 3/4/1971
Derge Telephone Survey Polling Questions on the approval or disapproval of Nixon's handling of the Presidency for Northern California and Southern California. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 7/11/1970
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
Contested Materials Collection
Folder List
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
44
11
5/25/1971
Campaign
Memo
To: H.R. Haldeman From: Gordon Strachan
RE: RNC survey on Cap Weinberger's
chances of defeating Alioto in the San
Francisco mayoralty race. Memo from Dent
and RNC survey (05/17/1971) to analyze
problems involved in defeating Alioto
attached. 4pgs
44
11
3/4/1971
Campaign
Report
The California Poll report, released by Field
Research Corporation, Release #706, titled
"Reagan's Voter Popularity Slips," written
by Marvin D. Field. 5pgs
44
11
7/11/1970
Campaign
Report
Derge Telephone Survey Polling Questions
on the approval or disapproval of Nixon's
handling of the Presidency for Northern
California and Southern California. 4pgs
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Page 1 of 1
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Date
May 25, 1971
NOTE TO: H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
Dent forwarded this RNC survey on
Cap Weinberger's chances of
defeating Alioto in the San
Francisco mayoralty race.
His chances don't look too good.
Weinberger has received this
information.
THE WHITE HOUSE
G
WASHINGTON
Date: May 21, 1971
TO:
BOB HALDEMAN
FROM:
HARRY DENT DSD
Please handle
For your information
Palls
Republican
Colil
National
Committee.
homas C. Reed
May 17, 1971
Member for California
Executive Committee
Republican National Committee
O. Box 371
San Rafael, California 94902
415) 456-7310
Dear General Mitchell:
During the period April 26 through 27, my office undertook a survey in the
City and County of San Francisco to analyze the problems involved in
defeating Joseph Alioto's bid for reelection as Mayor. I thought you might
be interested in some of the results.
As far as the mayoralty is concerned, we found the voters of San Francisco
to be pretty unconcerned about Alioto's Mafia and kickback scandals. As
a possible opponent, Cap Weinberger stands a reasonable chance, given
adequate money and support. It would certainly be an uphill struggle, how-
ever. We have furnished him with a full report.
As part of the survey, we looked at President Nixon's "coattail strength" to
see how a member of the President's staff might take advantage of those
coattails. There were two questions, as follows:
1.
"How would you rate the job Nixon is doing as President?"
This survey, S.F., April 1971
Statewide,
All voters
Republicans
Democrats
Oct. 1970
Excellent
9%
21%
4%
14%
Good
26%
40%
19%
36%
Fair
33%
24%
37%
34%
Poor
28%
12%
35%
14%
No opinion
4%
4%
5%
2%
2. "If the election for President were held today, and Richard Nixon were
running for reelection, would you vote for him?
This survey, S.F., April 1971
Total,
1968 S.F.
of those
Vote
Rep.
Dem.
Total
Committed
Results
Yes
49%
8%
21%
31%
33.6% Nixon
No
19%
59%
46%
69%
59.2% Humphrey
Depends on opponent
28%
28%
28%
-
6.3% Wallace
Don't know
5%
6%
6%
no/ n c T1
-
We also looked at the April 24 anti-war march and rally in San Francisco
--at which Joseph Alioto appeared. The violence in Washington had not
yet erupted. The question was phrased to be pro-demonstrators:
"Demonstrations against the war in Vietnam generally do more
good than harm. It
Agree: 42%
Disagree: 49%
No opinion: 9%
If we can be of further assistance, please do not hesitate to call.
Very best regards,
Tow
Thomas C. Reed
The Honorable John N. Mitchell
Attorney General of the United States
Justice Department
Washington, D.C.
CC: Mr. Harry S. Dent
Mr. Lyn Nofziger
Mr. Robert H. Finch
305 5253
Marun 0 Batter
Robert He,B. DO
COPYRIGHT 1971 BY FIELD RESEARCH CORPORATION. FOR PUBLICATION BY SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
Release # 706
For release
THURSDAY, MARCH 4, 1971
REAGAN'S VOTER POPULARITY
IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is subject to 10
SLIPS
vocation if publication or broadcast takes place before
release date or if contents of report are divulged to
by Mervin D. Field
persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time
Governor Ronald Reagan's popularity with California voters is down considerably since last year, du
apparently to dissatisfaction with his cuts in the Medi-Cal budget and his advocacy of cutbacks in welfare.
The California Poll makes periodic surveys to measure how California voters rate the job being done
the incumbent governor. Last year, The California Poll found almost twice as many voters who would say they
believed Governor Reagon was doing a "good job" as claimed he was doing a "poor job." This year, the number
of "poor job" ratings is almost equal to the "good job" ratings. Below are shown the findings of this survey com:
pared with two other measures taken at approximately this same time in 1969 and 1970.
Think Reagon is doing --
GOOD JOB
FAIR JOB
POOR JOB
February 1971
32%
35
28
February 1970
39%
36
19
February 1969
42%
36
15
While the largest single complaint about the Governor's performance is high taxes, this has always
been a leading item of disapproval. What is new this year is the large number who fault him for cutting back
on the Medi-Cal program.and on welfare.
There also appears to be Q small but growing body of critical comment about Reagan's lack of
understanding for the needs of education and his budget cutbacks in educational funds.
Where in 1969 and 1970 somewhat more than one-half of the public (56% and 59%) cited one or
more things Recgan had done which they disapproved of, today two out of three (67%) people offer a critical
comment.
(MORE)
The California Pell - page 2
February
February
February
1971
1970
1969
Things Governor Reagan has done that public
DISAPPROVES of:
Has not reduced taxes, has reised taxes; no tax relief
for property owners, has reised property tax
22%
20%
14%
Cutbacks in Medi-Cal, medical help for poor,
needy, aged
21
1
3
Welfare cutbacks, reduction of aid to needy,
pensioners
18
6
3
Education, lack of understanding of needs, poor
handling of system
9
3
6
Cutbacks in educational funds, cut money for
institutions
9
9
5
Mental health cuts
6
9
10
Nothing unfavorable mentioned
33
41
44
(partial table - no other single disapproval comment exceeded 4%)
Symptomatic of greater disapproval, today, just 54 percent of the public can think of something
favorable to credit the Governor with. (In 1969, 70 percent could do this, and in 1970, 64 percent would do so.
While the Governor has lost favor in some quarters for his stand on welfare budget cuts, he also gains
support from many others for this some reason. Approval of the Governor for firm handling of campus disorders has
greatly diminished in frequency of mentions this year -- probably reflecting both relatively less campus activity
than before, and a shift in the Governor's primary attention from the colleges to other matters.
February
Frebruary
February
1971
1970
1969
This Governor Recgan has done that public
APPROVES of:
Welfare cutbacks, reform
28%
4%
3%
Firm handling of rio's of universities, colleges
13
22
50
Efforts to cut government expenditures, balance
the budget
13
14
17
Nothing favorable mentioned
46
36
30
(partial table - no other single approval comment exceeded 5%)
-30-
COPYRIGHT 1971 BY FIELD RESEARCH CORPORATION. FOR PUBLICATION BY SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
What things that Governor Reagon has done since he has been in office do you especially (approve)
(disopprove) of?
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
1971
1970
1969
Approve of
Welfare culbacks, reform
28%
4%
3%
Firm handling of riots at universities, colleges
13
22
50
Efforts to cut government expenditures, balance the
budget
13
14
17
Kept taxes down (general)
5
-
-
Stand on educational system
4
-
-
Tax refund, tax relief for home owners
4
-
5
Interest in ecology, environment, trying to fight
pollution
2
5
-
Firm stand on crime, law and order
2
3
1
Cuts in gove. ment jobs, elimination of unnecessary
employees
2
1
2
Outspoken, says what he thinks, sincere
2
3
3
Reform of Medi-Core
2
-
-
Proposal to charge tuition of state universities
1
5
3
Approve withholding tax stand
1
-
-
Doing a good job; approve of everything he has done
4
3
1
Miscellaneous approval mentions
9
11
8
Nothing favorable mentioned
46
36
30
(Adds to more than 100% because some people cited more than one
thing they approved of)
Disapprove of:
Has not reduced taxes, has raised taxes; no tax relief for
property owners, has raised property tax
22%
20%
14%
Cutbacks in Medi-Cal, medical help for poor, needy,
aged
21
1
3
Welfare cutbacks, reduction of aid to needy, pensioners
18
6
3
Education, lack of understanding of needs, poor handling
of system
9
3
6
Cutbacks in educational funds, cut money for institutions
9
9
5
Mental health cuts
6
9
10
Unemployment, cuts in jobs
4
2
1
Bad budgeting
4
-
-
Should crack down more on college rioters, demonstrators
4
3
6
For big business, wealthy, not for poor, little man
4
-
-
Not interested in ecology, environment, pollution
4
3
-
Has not kept compaign promises, doesn't carry out
programs
3
4
3
Opposed withholding tax
3
-
2
Handling of CRLA
3
-
-
Not strict enough on welfare
2
-
-
Proposal to charge tuition at state universities
1
5
5
General - doing a poor job, disapprove of everything
he has done
2
1
1
Miscellaneous disapproval comments
14
10
8
Nothing unfavorable mentioned
33
41
44
(Adds to more than 100% because some people cited more than one
thing they disapproved of)
3:42M
Lnc
305-5259
Mervy
Robert HE,E
INFORMATION ABOUT THIS SURVEY
lates of interviewing
January 27 - February 7, 1971
opulation covered by
his survey:
Representative cross-section of California adult public.
lumber of interviews:
This report is based on a sample of 984.
ample design:
The survey interviews are selected in accordance with o probability sample design
which provides for random (i.e., non-judgmental) selection of households.
Assignments in a particular place are done in clusters with randomly drawn
addresses as starting points for each cluster of interviews. For this survey, 240
clusters throughout the state were selected. Each cluster consisted of a set of
consecutive households beginning with the designated starting household.
Interviewers made up to three calls on every listed address in on attempt to
complete on interview. One adult per household was selected for interview on
a systematic basis to provide O balance by sex and age Interviewing was con-
ducted during late afternoon and evening on weekdays and all day on the
week-end. The sample is designed to be self-weighted on all variables of
interest, such as area of state, degree of urbanization, political party
affiliation, and socio-economic status. Whenever imbalances in key
variables occur in the sample due to sampling variability or other factors,
corrective weights are applied during the data processing stage to return the
sample to proper proportion.
Wording of the
"Do you feel that Governor Recgan is doing a good job, o fair job, or a poor job
questions on which
as Governor of California?"
his report is based:
"What things that Governor Reagan has done since he has been in office do you
especially approve of ?
"What things that Governor Reagon has done since he has been in office do you
especially disapprove of?"
See reverse side for answers to some
typical questions about the Poll
NOTE TO EDITORS: Following are answers 10 some questions frequently asked about The Colifornia
Poll. These may be helpful for your own background or to cnswer questions put to you about The
Poll. Any or all of this TFY be published at your option.
QUESTIONS AND ANSW/ERS ABOUT THE CALIFORNIA POLL
Q. Who runs The California Poll ?
A.
The California Poll is C wned and operated by Field Research Corporation, on independent national
public opinion and marketing research agency with headquarters in Son Francisco. The Poll was
founded in 1946 and has been published continuously since that time. The Poll is non-partisan.
Q. Who pays for the surveys conducted by The California Poll ?
A.
The cost of operating The California Poll is underwritten by 13 newspapers and four television
stations in California. Each one pays on annual fee for exclusive publication or broadcast
rights in its area. The Poll does not accept fees from any candidates, political parties, or
individuals who have any interest in the data being published. Its sole purpose is to report
public opinion objectively and accurately.
Q. How are The California Foll's surveys conducted
A.
The surveys are made by means of personal interviews conducted by trained interviewers using
printed questionnaires. Survey respondents are selected by scientific methods to assure that on
accurate cross section of adults in all walks of life throughout the state and representing oll
shades of political belief are included in their proper proportion in the sample.
Q. Are the some people interviewed in each survey ?
A.
No. Fresh samples of respondents are drown for each survey. (Panels of respondents re-interviewed
of intervals are also C VC id and valuable research technique for certain special purposes, but they
are seldom used for surveys of the type conducted by The California Poll.)
Q. How are the samples selected and how many people are interviewed
A.
Samples are drawn by prosebility sampling methods which give each household in the state on equal
chance of being called or. for cn interview. Within households, the interviewers select adult re-
spondents to fit sex and cge quotas to match the state population as a whole. Samples vary in size
between 500 and 1000 respondents per survey.
Q. Do people give honest onswers to surveys of this type
A.
In countless surveys of this type we have found that people are remarkably candid in talking to our
interviewers, and wherever we have on opportunity to test the validity of their answers (for ex-
ample, in cn election) there is good evidence that they have actually given us their true opinions.
We recognize that without public confidence surveys of this kind would be impossible and so we
guarantee each respondent complete anonymity. After a percentage of the interviews have been
validated by supervisors, the data are compiled only as statistical summaries. Names of survey
respondents are never released for sales or political use.
Q. Are sample surveys of this type accurate ?
A.
Time after time it has been demonstrated that carefully designed samples of this size are very
reliable. Wherever the results can be checked against known data, they have proved to be
accurate with relatively nerrow tolerance limits. For example, a survey of 1000 respondents
typically will be occurate within plus or minus approximately 4.5 percentage points, and O
survey of 500 respondents has o tolerance range of about 6.7 percentage points. Thousands
of such surveys ore done each year for business and government and great reliance is put on
their findings.
See reverse side for specific information about
the current survey.
7/-11-12/70 Derge Telephone
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Richard Nixon is handling his
job as President?
Approve
Disapprove
Don't Know
No. Called
58%
27%
15%
117
MEN
59
27
14
56
WOMEN
57
26
17
61
Did You See the President's Television Interview?
YES
NO
Total
27%
73%
Men
32
68
Women
23
77
How Do You Feel the President Handled the Interview?
No.
Excellent
Good
Fair
Poor
Don't Know
Called
25%
25%
22%
25%
3%
32
Do You Agree or Disagree with most of what President Nixon said?
Agree
Disagree
Don't Know
No. Called
47%
44%
9%
32
Northern California - 2
Suppose Vice President Agnew came into your area and campaigned for a
Congressional candidate, would this make you more likely to vote for that
candidate, less likely, or would it make no difference?
No.
More Likely
Less Likely
No Difference
Don't Know
Called
12%
26%
50%
12%
117
MEN
9%
30%
47%
14%
56
WOMEN
15%
21%
52%
12%
61
Suppose President Nixon came into your area and campaigned for a Congressional
candidate, would this make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less
likely, or would it make no difference?
No.
More Likely
Less Likely
No Difference
Dont Know
Called
15%
16%
56%
13%
117
MEN
12%
20%
57%
11%
56
WOMEN
18%
13%
54%
15%
61
Derge Telephone 7/11-12/70
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
Do You Approve or Disapprove of the way Richard Nixon is handling his
job as President?
Approve
Disapprove
Don't Know
No. Called
59%
27%
14%
157
MEN
60%
30%
10%
88
WOMEN
58%
24%
18%
69
Did you see the President's Television Interview?
No.
YES
NO
Called
Total
34%
66%
157
Men
32%
68%
88
Women
38%
62%
69
How do you feel the President Handled the Interview?
Excellent
Good
Fair
Poor
Don't Know
No. Called
41%
34%
11%
4%
4%
54
Do You Agree or Disagree with most of what the President said?
Agree
Disagree
Don't Know
No. Called
69%
19%
11%
54%
Southern California - 2
Suppose Vice President Agnew came into your area and campaigned for a
Congressional candidate, would this make you more likely to vote for
that candidate, less likely, or would it make no difference?
More Likely
Less Likely
No Difference
Don't Know
No. Called
12%
22%
59%
7%
157
MEN
11%
22%
61%
6%
88
WOMEN
12%
23%
56%
9%
69
Suppose President Nixon came into your area and campaigned for a Congressional
candidate, would this make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less
likely, or would it make no difference?
More Likely
Less Likely
No Difference
Don't Know
No. Called
15%
16%
60%
9%
157
MEN
14%
16%
63%
7%
88
WOMEN
16%
16%
56%
12%
69