Ask the Scholar
Document scope · 1 page
Scholar
Ask about this object, its catalog metadata, its source description, or the page inventory.
For page-specific OCR and visual context, open one of the page chats.
Scholar Source Context
Document identity
localId
118565188
label
Dick Wirthlin [1983-1984] (2)
core
doc
dtoType
document
citationUrl
pageCount
1
Source metadata
id
118565188
contentType
document
title
Dick Wirthlin [1983-1984] (2)
citationUrl
identifierLocal
137
collections
Records of the White House Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff (Reagan Administration)
Michael Deaver's Political Files
thumbnailUrl
largeImageUrl
imageCount
1
hasImages
yes
source
import
hasTranscription
no
Source extras
naId
118565188
coverageEndDate
logicalDate
1985-12-31
year
1985
coverageStartDate
logicalDate
1981-01-01
year
1981
levelOfDescription
fileUnit
recordType
description
ocrSource
nara-archive
Single page context
seq
1
pageIndex
0
type
document
mediaId
0e4a154593081381
ocrText
Ronald Reagan Presidential Library
Digital Library Collections
This is a PDF of a folder from our textual collections.
Collection: Deaver, Michael: Files
Folder Title: Dick Wirthlin [1983-1984] (2)
Box: 66
To see more digitized collections
visit: https://reaganlibrary.gov/archives/digital-library
To see all Ronald Reagan Presidential Library inventories visit:
https://reaganlibrary.gov/document-collection
Contact a reference archivist at: [email protected]
Citation Guidelines: https://reaganlibrary.gov/citing
National Archives Catalogue: https://catalog.archives.gov/
Decision/Making/Information ®
Intelligent alternatives
for today's decision makers
6803 Poplar Place, Suite 300, McLean, Virginia 22101, (703) 556-0001
TO:
Edwin Meese III
James A. Baker, III
Michael K. Deaver
FROM:
Richard B. Wirthlin
DATE:
August 9, 1983 (RNC83-8: July 30-31, 1983)
SUBJECT:
Cynicism
Is Government Hopeless?
According to a national poll done by the Institute for Social
Research at the University of Michigan (cited by Adam Clymer in
The New York Times, July 15, 1983), Americans are expressing
increased confidence in their government for the first time in
nearly two decades.
Our poll substantiates this trend (in a somewhat different
dimension) with response patterns to the statement:
As the government is now organized and operated, I think
it is hopelessly incapable of dealing with all the
crucial problems facing the country today.
Only 47% now agree with this statement as compared to 56% in
January 1983 and 57% in March 1981. Additionally, 47% of the
respondents disagree with the statement, which also indicates an
increased confidence level. This is a rise of five percentage
points from the low of 42% disagreement in January of this year.
Women are somewhat more pessimistic about government than men:
Agree with Statement
Female/Male
49%
44%
Married women/Married men
50
43
Non-married women/Non-married men
48
47
Older women/Older men
49
44
Young women/Young men
48
44
Decision/Making/Information
Cynicism
August 9, 1983
Page Two
As can be expected, blacks (62% agree), Democratic leaners (61%
agree), and the unemployed (60% agree) are very cynical.
Among geographic areas, the Mountain States show the most cynicism
(53% agree), followed by the Great Lakes States (50% agree). The
Pacific States show the least cynicism (41% agree).
Only 39% of the senior citizens polled agree with the statement, as
opposed to 25 - 34 year olds, who indicate 54% agreement, and 45 -
54 year olds, who indicate 53% agreement.
Education seems to affect American attitudes toward government, as
those with a high school education or less than high school
education are more inclined to agree with the statement (51% and
49%, respectively). Respondents with some college, college
graduates, and postgraduates are less inclined to agree (41%, 39%
and 33%, respectively).
Although confidence in government seems to be rebounding, Arthur H.
Miller, an associate professor of political science at the
University of Michigan, reminds us that "the American public
remains predominately negative toward government and public
officials, but" he adds, "the shift toward a more positive attitude
is historically and politically important." This shift could well
have some interesting consequences for us in 1984.
A Few Good Leaders
Although indicating a somewhat more positive attitude toward
government, the public feel that the solutions to our problems lie,
not with the institutions of government, but with good leadership.
Sixty-eight percent (68%) of the public agree that:
A few good leaders could make this country better than
all the laws and talk.
Although this is a drop of 4 percentage points from 72% agreement
in the January 1983 and the March 1981 surveys, there is still a
strong feeling that Americans want good leadership. In fact,
virtually all demographic subgroups give high agreement ratings.
Those with the highest ratings are white Baptists (86%), Deep South
residents (82%), blacks (80%), those with less than a high school
education (77%), the unemployed (77%), older women (75%), and
blue-collar workers (74%).
Decision/Making/Information
Cynicism
August 9, 1983
Page Three
Men (67%) and women (69%) differ only 2 percentage points in their
belief that good leaders can make this country better. Age and
marital status appear to be relatively important variables, for
example, the difference between older women (75%) and younger women
(62%), and married men (70%) and non-married men (61%).
Decision/Making/Information
Government As Now Organized Incapable
"Now, here are some statements people have made to us about the country. As I
read each one, please tell me whether you agree or disagree with what is said.
Would that be strongly (agree/disagree) or just somewhat (agree/disagree)?"
As the government is now organized and operated, I think
it is hopelessly incapable of dealing with all the
crucial problems facing the country today.
Mar 25-29
Jan 7-10
Jul 30-31
1981
1983
1983
Agree strongly
28%
30%
26%
Agree somewhat
29
26
21
Disagree somewhat
23
24
22
Disagree strongly
20
18
26
RNC83-8: July 30-31, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Few Good Leaders
"Now, here are some statements people have made to us about the country. As I
read each one, please tell me whether you agree or disagree with what is said.
Would that be strongly (agree/disagree) or just somewhat (agree/disagree) ?"
A few good leaders could make this country better than
all the laws and talk.
Mar 25-29
Jan 7-10
Jul 30-31
1981
1983
1983
Agree strongly
41%
46%
49%
Agree somewhat
31
26
19
Disagree somewhat
15
13
15
Disagree strongly
13
13
14
RNC83-8: July 30-31, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Government Hopeless
"Now, here are some statements people have made to us about the country. As I
read each one, please tell me whether you agree or disagree with what is said.
"Would that be strongly (agree/disagree), or just somewhat (agree/disagree)?"
As the government is now organized and operated, I think
it is hopelessly incapable of dealing with all the
crucial problems facing the country today.
Agree
Agree
Disag
Disag
No
Strng
Smwht
Smwht
Strng
Opinion
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
26
21
22
25
6
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
17
17
21
35
9
Farm Belt states
26
20
26
17
11
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
32
22
21
22
3
Senior citizens
25
14
19
26
17
Women
27
22
21
22
8
Catholics
26
24
18
25
8
Independents/Leaners
29
21
24
24
3
White Baptists
27
14
26
24
9
RNC83-8: July 30-31, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Few Good Leaders
"Now, here are some statements people have made to us about the country. As I
read each one, please tell me whether you agree or disagree with what is said.
"Would that be strongly (agree/disagree), or just somewhat (agree/disagree)?"
A few good leaders could make this country better than
all the laws and talk.
Agree
Agree
Disag
Disag
No
Strng
Smwht
Smwht
Strng
Opinion
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
49
19
15
14
3
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
39
21
19
18
2
Farm Belt states
49
20
17
9
5
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
57
16
13
12
1
Senior citizens
60
12
11
12
4
Women
52
17
16
12
3
Catholics
50
14
14
17
4
Independents/Leaners
48
19
16
13
3
White Baptists
71
15
7
7
1
RNC83-8: July 30-31, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Intelligent alternatives
for today's decision makers
6803 Poplar Place, Suite 300, McLean, Virginia 22101, (703) 556-0001
TO:
Edwin Meese III
James A. Baker, III
Michael K. Deaver
FROM:
Richard B. Wirthlin
DATE:
August 9, 1983 (RNC 83-8: July 30-31, 1983)
SUBJECT:
Political Thermometers
Ronald Reagan
President Reagan's thermometer rating (0 to 100 scale) has
increased slightly since the June 1983 study. Currently, he is
rated 58, a three-point increase since last month. Increases in
support are found among residents of the Farm Belt (3 points),
senior citizens (6 points), Catholics (5 points) and
Independents/leaners (7 points). With the increase, the President
now receives higher thermometer scores than Walter Mondale from
Catholics (57 to 55) and women (56 to 53).
Walter Mondale
Americans also rated Walter Mondale more favorably this month, his
score increasing from 51 to 53 on a scale of 0 to 100. Mondale's
increased popularity is reflected by higher scores from blue collar
workers (3 points), white Baptists (4 points), senior citizens (3
points), and respondents from the Farm Belt (3 points). Although
Mondale gained support in most of the key subgroups, his increases
were smaller than Reagan's, which gives the President an edge over
Mondale in every key constituency group.
John Glenn
Glenn's thermometer rating increased four points in this study to
64. This six-point lead over the President is the highest rating
Glenn has received this year. It can be partially attributed to
regained support among senior citizens and residents of the Farm
Belt states. His image has also become more favorable among blue
collar workers and white Baptists. The only constituency group
that rates Glenn lower than the President is base Republicans.
Decision/Making/Information
Political Thermometers
August 9, 1983
Page Two
George Shultz
Respondents give Secretary of State George Shultz a thermometer
rating of 58, seven points higher than former Secretary of State
Henry Kissinger. Shultz receives his highest ratings from base
Republicans, senior citizens, blue collar workers, Catholics, and
Independents/leaners. The other key constituency groups all give
him at least a 53.
Caspar Weinberger
Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger, who received a thermometer
rating of 51 on a 0 to 100 scale, is regarded less favorably by
Americans than the Secretary of State. Like Shultz, Weinberger
derives support from base Republicans, senior citizens, and
residents of the Farm Belt states; however, he receives a score of
50 or slightly less from blue collar workers, women, Catholics,
Independents/leaners, and white Baptists.
Decision/Making/Information
Thermometer Ratings -- Political and Others
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
Jun
Sep
9-12
12-17
18-28
11-19
15-22
23-27
1981
1981
1981
1982
1982
1982
Jimmy Carter
50
*
*
*
*
*
John Glenn
*
*
*
*
*
*
Ted Kennedy
49
56
50
49
51
51
Walter Mondale
51
58
55
52
50
51
Tip O'Neill
*
*
53
*
50
*
Paul Volcker
*
*
*
*
*
*
Anne Gorsuch Burford
Menachem Begin
*
*
50
*
49
36
Jan
Jan
Mar
Apr
Apr
May
7-10
27-29
17-21
7-10
27-28
27-30
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
Jimmy Carter
*
*
*
*
*
*
John Glenn
61
62
61
59
*
60
Ted Kennedy
*
*
*
*
*
*
Walter Mondale
52
54
54
52
*
54
Tip O'Neill
53
57
58
56
*
*
Paul Volcker
*
*
51
*
*
*
Anne Gorsuch Burford
*
*
43
*
*
*
Gary Hart
*
*
*
50
*
*
Menachem Begin
*
*
*
*
*
*
Jun
July
25-27
30-31
1983
1983
Jimmy Carter
*
*
John Glenn
60
64
Ted Kennedy
*
*
Walter Mondale
51
53
Tip O'Neill
*
*
Paul Volcker
*
*
Anne Gorsuch Burford
*
*
Gary Hart
*
*
Menachem Begin
*
*
RNC83-8: July 30-31, 1983
REAGAN THERMOMETER
Percent
100
90
80
70
63
60
59
60
58
53
54
50
40
30
20
Decision/Making/Informati
10
0
1
3
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1
1
3
4
5
6
7
1982
Month
1983
Decision/Making/Information
Comparative Thermometer Ratings: Reagan/Mondale/Glenn
"Now I'd like to get your feelings toward some people and organizations in
politics. I'm going to read you some names and I'd like you to rate each one
on a scale of 0 to 100, where the worst possible person or groups, in your
judgment, would get a rating of 0, while the best possible person or group
would get a rating of 100. Most people or organizations, of course, would be
rated somewhere in between those extremes.
Remember, we just want to know your opinion of these people and institutions,
with 0 being the worst possible rating and 100 being the best. If I name
someone who you don't know too much about, just tell me and we'll go on to the
next one.
The first person is how do you feel about him?"
Reagan
Mondale
Glenn
Aggregate
57.90
53.30
63.60
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
74.20
45.17
59.35
Farm Belt states
56.24
53.71
64.83
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
54.54
52.66
66.01
Senior citizens
65.62
54.58
66.49
Women
55.71
52.00
63.80
Catholics
56.58
54.98
64.28
Independents/Leaners
60.93
49.98
63.24
White Baptists
57.96
52.00
66.86
RNC83-8: July 30-31, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Comparative Thermometer Ratings: Shultz/Weinberger
"Now I'd like to get your feelings toward some people and organizations in
politics. I'm going to read you some names and I'd like you to rate each one
on a scale of 0 to 100, where the worst possible person or groups, in your
judgment, would get a rating of 0, while the best possible person or group
would get a rating of 100. Most people or organizations, of course, would be
rated somewhere in between those extremes.
Remember, we just want to know your opinion of these people and institutions,
with 0 being the worst possible rating and 100 being the best. If I name
someone who you don't know too much about, just tell me and we'll go on to the
next one.
The first person is ... how do you feel about him?"
Shultz
Weinberger
Aggregate
57.90
50.60
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
66.71
59.29
Farm Belt states
58.54
53.95
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
53.35
50.80
Senior citizens
69.47
43.44
Women
55.05
49.83
Catholics
56.47
49.96
Independents/Leaners
56.59
49.82
White Baptists
53.02
50.53
RNC83-8: July 30-31, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Intelligent alternatives
for today's decision makers
6803 Poplar Place, Suite 300, McLean, Virginia 22101, (703) 556-0001
TO:
Edwin Meese III
James A. Baker, III
Michael K. Deaver
FROM:
Richard B. Wirthlin
DATE:
August 9, 1983 (RNC83-8: July 30-31, 1983)
SUBJECT:
Debate Papers
The potentially dangerous debate papers incident seems to have, for
the present, lost its news value. At the President's most recent
press conference, subsequent to announcement of the formation of
the bi-partisan Central American commission, there was only one
question regarding the debate papers.
Although public awareness of this issue (aided and unaided) reached
80% at the height of its press coverage, only two-thirds of the
public can now identify the major theme -- briefing papers from the
Carter campaign -- and most are unable to detail the situation.
The public's perception of the President appears unaffected; the
perceptions of trustworthiness and leadership abilities remain as
favorable as in past months.
When asked specifically:
Do you approve or disapprove of Ronald Reagan's handling
of the debate papers issue?
Strongly approve
18%
Somewhat approve
22
Somewhat disapprove
17
Strongly disapprove
17
No opinion
26
Over one-quarter of the American public has no opinion on Reagan's
handling of this issue. Of those expressing an opinion, 55%
approve of Reagan's actions while 45% disapprove.
Decision/Making/Information
Debate Papers
August 5, 1983
Page Two
The highest approval ratings come from professionals, college
graduates, base Republicans, and men. Disapproval is higher among
women (a swing constituency), blacks, Democrats, and older voters.
Interestingly enough, of those groups registering the highest
awareness of the controversy, postgraduates are more likely to
disapprove of Reagan's handling of the issue while college
graduates and professionals generally approve.
Decision/Making/Information
Reagan Job Rating -- Debate Papers
"Now a little more specifically, I am going to read you a list of issues. For
each, I would like you to tell me whether you strongly approve ... somewhat
approve somewhat disapprove or strongly disapprove of the way Ronald
Reagan is handling each of these issues."
Handling of the debate papers issue.
Strong
Smwht
Smwht
Strong
No
Approve
Approve
Disapp
Disapp
Opinion
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
18
23
17
16
27
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
27
28
13
8
24
Farm Belt states
13
29
9
19
30
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
16
25
19
16
25
Senior citizens
22
16
10
18
35
Women
14
19
21
16
30
Catholics
17
22
19
16
26
Independents/Leaners
18
26
15
13
28
White Baptists
17
21
17
14
31
RNC83-8: July 30-31, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Reagan Job Rating: Debate Papers
"Just generally, on the basis of what you now know, do you approve or
disapprove of the way Ronald Reagan is handling these charges? And would that
be strongly (approve/disapprove) or just somewhat (approve/disapprove)?"
July
July
July
July
July
July
6-8
7-9
8-10
9-11
10-12
11-13
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
Strongly approve
24
27
32
32
32
29
Somewhat approve
28
29
29
30
30
29
Somewhat disapprove
11
10
10
10
12
12
Strongly disapprove
17
15
13
13
13
14
No opinion
20
19
16
15
13
16
July
July
July
July
July
July
12-14
13-15
14-16
15-17
16-18
17-19
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
Strongly approve
30
28
30
27
28
30
Somewhat approve
28
27
28
28
28
27
Somewhat disapprove
12
13
13
13
13
13
Strongly disapprove
13
13
13
15
17
17
No opinion
17
19
17
17
14
13
July
July
July
July
July
July
18-20
19-21
20-22
21-23
22-24
23-25
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
Strongly approve
29
28
30
32
32
31
Somewhat approve
29
32
33
31
28
29
Somewhat disapprove
13
11
12
12
15
16
Strongly disapprove
16
16
16
16
16
15
No opinion
13
13
9
9
9
9
July
30-31
1983
Strongly approve
18
Somewhat approve
23
Somewhat disapprove
17
Strongly disapprove
16
No opinion
27
RNC83-8: July 30-31, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Intelligent alternatives
for today's decision makers
6803 Poplar Place, Suite 300, McLean, Virginia 22101, (703) 556-0001
TO:
Edwin Meese III
James A. Baker, III
Michael K. Deaver
FROM:
Richard B. Wirthlin
DATE:
August 9, 1983 (RNC83-8: July 30-31, 1983)
SUBJECT:
Reagan Job Rating -- Education
As expected, education continues to be a major issue. Approval
ratings for President Reagan's education policies have dropped
three points from 52% in June when his own visibility on the issue
was highest to coincide with May's aggregate rating (49%). The 43%
disapproval rating also matches the May figure, a rise of two
percentage points from the June disapproval rating (41%).
Men give the President a higher job rating on education than do
women (53% and 45%, respectively). The rating by women reflects a
five percentage-point drop from June. The lowest approval ratings
among men and women come from single men (50%) and single women
(42%).
Other significant declines in approval ratings were registered by
base Republicans (72% to 65%) and Catholics (49% to 47%).
People in the Farm Belt States feel more positively now (51%) about
the job President Reagan is doing on education than they did in
June (43%). Senior citizens also give a higher approval rating
than last month (49% to 53%), as do white Baptists (56% to 59%).
Blacks, postgraduates, and the unemployed give extremely low
approval ratings on education (22%, 23%, and 30% respectively).
The geographic areas that are most supportive of the President's
policies on education are the Deep South (54%), New England (53%),
and the Outer South (52%). Areas where support is less evident
include the Mountain States (49%), the Pacific States (48%), the
Mid-Atlantic region (46%) and the Great Lakes (44%).
Decision/Making/Informati
Reagan Job Rating -- Education
"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ronald Reagan is handling
?"
May
Jun
July
27-30 25-27 30-31
1983 1983 1983
Approve
49
52
49
Disapprove
43
41
43
No opinion
8
7
8
RNC83-8: July 30-31, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Reagan Job Rating: Education
"Now a little more specifically. I am going to read you a list of issues. For
each, I would like you to tell me whether you strongly approve ... somewhat
approve ... somewhat disapprove ... or strongly disapprove of the way Ronald
Reagan is handling each of these issues."
Strong
Smwht
Smwht
Strong
No
Approve
Approve
Disapp
Disapp
Opinion
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
19
30
17
26
8
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
28
37
16
11
8
Farm Belt states
18
33
22
18
8
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
18
33
21
24
5
Senior citizens
33
20
13
21
13
Women
16
29
18
26
11
Catholics
18
29
20
24
9
Independents/Leaners
20
30
21
22
8
White Baptists
20
39
12
20
9
RNC83-8: July 30-31, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Intelligent alternatives
for today's decision makers
6803 Poplar Place, Suite 300, McLean, Virginia 22101, (703) 556-0001
TO:
Senator Paul Laxalt
Frank Fahrenkopf
FROM:
Richard B. Wirthlin
DATE:
August 9, 1983 (RNC 83-8: July 30-31, 1983)
SUBJECT:
Partisanship
Americans now give a more favorable thermometer rating to both
political parties than they did in the June 1983 survey. On a
scale of 0 to 100, Republican scores increased from 53 to 54 and
Democratic scores from 59 to 61. Republican gains can be found
among senior citizens and Independents/leaners. Democrats, on the
other hand, appear to have gained support from the white Baptists,
a group previously supporting Republicans and Democrats equally.
Further comparisons of the key constituency group ratings reveal
that residents of the Farm Belt, blue collar workers, women,
Catholics, and white Baptists rate the Democrats higher than they
rate the Republicans.
Party identification has changed slightly since the last study.
Currently, one-half of the respondents (50%) consider themselves to
be Democrats, while slightly more than a third (36%) identify with
the Republican party and one-seventh (14%) consider themselves to
be Independents. The shift in affiliation narrows the gap between
Democratic and Republican identification from 17 to 14 points.
Decision/Making, Information
Thermometer Ratings -- Party
Jan
Jul
Sep
Jan
Jun
Sep
30-3
16-18
18-28
11-19
15-22
23-27
1981
1981
1981
1982
1982
1982
Republicans
64
62
55
56
54
52
Democrats
57
56
58
59
60
60
Jan
Jan
Mar
Apr
Apr
May
7-10
27-29
17-21
7-10
27-28
27-30
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
Republicans
49
52
50
50
*
54
Democrats
61
63
63
61
*
61
Jun
July
25-27
30-31
1983
1983
Republicans
53
55
Democrats
59
61
RNC83-8: July 30-31, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Comparative Party Thermometer Ratings
"Now I'd like to get your feelings toward some people and organizations in
politics. I'm going to read you some names and I'd like you to rate each one
on a scale of 0 to 100, where the worst possible person or groups, in your
judgment, would get a rating of 0, while the best possible person or group
would get a rating of 100. Most people or organizations, of course, would be
rated somewhere in between those extremes.
Remember, we just want to know your opinion of these people and institutions,
with 0 being the worst possible rating and 100 being the best. If I name
someone who you don't know too much about, just tell me and we'll go on to the
next one.
The first one is ... how do you feel about it?"
Republican
Democratic
Party
Party
Aggregate
54.90
60.60
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
75.90
39.97
Farm Belt states
54.72
59.17
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
52.51
59.75
Senior citizens
63.41
58.71
Women
52.58
61.81
Catholics
54.14
62.81
Independents/Leaners
57.11
54.43
White Baptists
50.81
62.66
RNC83-8: July 30-31, 1983
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
(with lean)
Percent
100
Republican
90
Independent
80
70
Demoorat
60
54
50
51
48
50
40
37
36
37
32
30
20
Decision/Making/Informati
15
12
14
14
10
0
3 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 1 1 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 7
1982
Month
1983
Decision/Making/Information
Intelligent alternatives
for today's decision makers
6803 Poplar Place, Suite 300, McLean, Virginia 22101, (703) 556-0001
TO:
Senator Paul Laxalt
Frank Fahrenkopf
FROM:
Richard B. Wirthlin
DATE:
August 5, 1983 (RNC83-8: July 30-31, 1983)
SUBJECT:
Presidential Performance
The President's current general approval rating is fairly
consistent with those obtained in June and early July. Although
his approval rating rose slightly in the early and middle part of
July, it leveled off again to 52% approval and 43% disapproval.
Although specific ratings on Reagan's handling of foreign affairs
and inflation are lower in this survey than in July, his job rating
on unemployment continues to improve (up four points to 40%
approval) as unemployment declines.
Respondents were asked:
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ronald Reagan is
handling
?
Strng
Smwht
Smwht
Strng No
Approve
Approve
Disapp
Disapp
Opin.
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
His job as President
21
31
18
24
5
Foreign affairs
16
32
19
24
9
Unemployment
15
25
17
40
4
Inflation
28
23
17
29
3
General
The President's job rating remains strong as it continues to hover
around 52%. Since Eisenhower, the first half of a President's
third year has always left them politically weaker by the dog days
of summer. Reagan has strongly reversed that pattern. He appears
fairly unaffected by the debate papers' incident.
Decision/Making/Information
Presidential Performance
August 5, 1983
Page Two
Generally, current job rating patterns are similar to those in
June. Reagan continues to receive strong support from party
stalwarts and men (57%). He also has strong support among
professionals (60%), other white collar workers (65%), those with
some college education (60%) or a college degree (60%), and white
adults (58%).
When compared with the June numbers, it is clear that Reagan now
receives less strong ratings from senior citizens (60% to 54%) and
residents of the Mountain States (61% to 52%).
As usual, blacks give him the lowest rating (86% disapproval),
followed by Democrats, the lesser educated, and women. In short,
the same groups that have consistently registered disapproval in
the past, continue to do so.
The gender gap is not as pronounced this month; however, the
difference between Republican men and Republican women is 9%,
whereas there is no difference in job rating between Democratic men
and Democratic women. Like the Republicans, Independent men (66%)
are much more supportive of the President than Independent women
(45%).
Foreign Affairs
Although in June the President's job rating on foreign affairs
improved by six percentage points; this month, the rating is less
favorable. Five percent fewer Americans (48%) now approve of the
job Reagan is doing on foreign affairs than did in June (53%).
July ratings are comparable to those registered in May.
Positive ratings are most prevalent among base Republicans (69%),
college graduates (61%), white collar workers (58%), and men (55%).
Generally speaking, the younger the respondent, the greater his
approval of Reagan's job on foreign affairs. Geographically, the
South rates Reagan's handling of foreign affairs higher than other
areas of the nation.
Except for senior citizens and Independents/leaners whose ratings
are unchanged, all key constituencies voice lower overall approval
of Reagan's handling of U.S. foreign policy: Farm Belt residents
down 5%, blue collar workers down 10%, women down 3%, Catholics
down 3%, and white Baptists down 2%.
Decision/Making/Information
Presidential Performance
August 5, 1983
Page Three
The gap between men and women, which was 10% in May and 14% in
June, is currently 13%. This gap narrows with increased education,
closing to eight percentage points between those men and women with
at least a college degree. The gap cuts across party lines with
Democratic men expressing more support of Reagan on the issue of
foreign affairs than their female counterparts.
Unemployment
Although the unemployment rate is still high, it is declining
steadily, recently experiencing the single biggest monthly decrease
since 1959. Although the drop was not reflected in this survey,
approval on the President's handling of jobs rose another four
percent in July to 40%. The rise from a January low of 26%
approval bodes well for us if the recovery is sustained and more
unemployed workers get their "five a week."
Specifically, greatest increases in approval are among younger,
less well-educated Americans: 18-34 year olds (particularly
younger men), and those with less than a high school education or
with a high school diploma only. In terms of key constituencies,
approval ratings are now higher among blue collar workers up 4%,
women up 5%, Catholics up 5%, and white Baptists up 8%. Reagan's
highest ratings continue to come from the Republican base (64%),
men, white collar workers, those with some college or college
degrees, and New England residents.
Attitudes on Reagan's performance on the unemployment issue are
much more negative among minorities, Democrats, and women.
Inflation
In July, Reagan's job rating on inflation remains practically
unchanged. Just over half of all Americans approve of the job
Reagan is doing on inflation (51%). Among his key constituencies,
however, approval declined slightly: blue collar workers down 5%,
senior citizens down 6%, Catholics down 6%, and white Baptists down
6%. On the other hand, the better educated Americans continue to
evaluate Reagan positively for his part in controlling inflation:
college graduates (72%), postgraduates (66%), and those with some
college education (63%). He also retains a higher approval rating
among base Republicans (75%), white collar workers (66%), and
professionals (64%).
Approval is lower among Democrats, older Americans, minorities, and
women.
Decision/Making/Information
Reagan Job Rating -- General
"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ronald Reagan is handling his job as
President?"
Feb
Jun
Sep
Jan
Jun
Sep
20-22
12-14
18-28
11-19
15-22
23-27
1981
1981
1981
1982
1982
1982
70
67
60
60
52
51
Approve
Disapprove
14
27
33
33
40
43
No opinion
16
6
7
7
8
6
Jan
Jan
Mar
Apr
Apr
May
7-10
27-29
17-21
7-10
27-28
27-30
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
Approve
46
44
50
50
50
55
Disapprove
49
50
46
46
44
41
No opinion
5
5
4
4
6
4
Jun
July
July
July
July
25-27
6-11
12-17
18-23
30-31
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
Approve
53
56
51
56
52
Disapprove
41
41
46
41
43
No opinion
6
3
4
3
5
RNC83-8: July 30-31, 1983
REAGAN JOB RATING
General
Percent
100
Approve
90
Disapprove
80
No
70
Opinion
60
54
55
52
52
50
50
49
40
41
40
43
44
41
43
30
20
Decision/Making/Informati
10
0
2 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 1 1 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 7
1982
Month
1983
Decision/Making/Information
Reagan Job Rating -- General
(Approve)
"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ronald Reagan is handling his job as
President? Would that be strongly (approve/disapprove) or just somewhat
(approve/disapprove)?"
May
June
July
27-30
25-27
30-31
1983
1983
1983
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
56
53
52
Base Republican
85
85
88
Small Business
59
61
*
Farm Belt states
57
56
54
Blue-collar workers
58
55
56
Senior citizens
44
59
54
Women
49
47
49
Catholics
57
51
51
Independents/Leaners
60
57
61
White Baptists
58
58
57
RNC83-8: July 30-31, 1983
REAGAN JOB RATING
Intensity of Response
Percent
100
Strongly
Approve
90
Strongly
Dieapprove
80
70
60
50
40
30
29
30
25
23
23
24
20
23
22
23
Decision/Making/Informati
21
10
0
2 3 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 1 2 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 7
1982
Month
1983
Decision/Making/Information
Reagan Job Rating -- Foreign Affairs
"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ronald Reagan is handling
?"
Mar
Jul
Oct
Jan
Jun
Sep
6-9
16-18
5-14
11-19
15-22
23-27
1981
1981
1981
1982
1982
1982
Approve
60
56
65
59
56
46
Disapprove
19
27
23
33
34
43
No opinion
21
16
12
8
10
11
Jan
Jan
Mar
Apr
Apr
May
7-10
27-29
17-21
7-10
27-28
27-30
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
Approve
46
45
41
44
46
47
Disapprove
44
40
49
48
46
44
No opinion
10
14
10
8
8
9
Jun
July
25-27
30-31
1983
1983
Approve
53
48
Disapprove
40
43
No opinion
7
9
RNC83-8: July 30-31, 1983
REAGAN JOB RATING
Foreign Affairs
Percent
100
Approve
90
Disapprove
80
No
70
Opinion
60
59
56
50
48
50
49
49
40
41
41
43
37
30
33
34
20
Decision/Making/Informati
10
0
1 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 1 1 3 4 4 5 6 7
1982
Month
1983
Decision/Making, Information
Reagan Job Rating: Foreign Affairs
"Now a little more specifically. I am going to read you a list of issues. For
each, I would like you to tell me whether you strongly approve ... somewhat
approve ... somewhat disapprove or strongly disapprove of the way Ronald
Reagan is handling each of these issues:"
Strongly
Somewhat
Somewhat
Strongly
No
Approve
Approve
Disapprove
Disapprove
Opinion
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
16
32
19
23
9
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
27
42
13
11
8
Farm Belt states
15
31
19
18
17
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
13
33
22
25
8
Senior citizens
22
25
14
25
14
Women
12
31
22
24
12
Catholics
14
34
25
20
7
Independents/Leaners
15
35
21
23
7
White Baptists
20
33
15
22
10
RNC83-8: July 30-31, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Reagan Job Rating -- Unemployment
"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ronald Reagan is handling
?"
Jan
Jun
Sep
Jan
Jan
Mar
11-19
15-22
23-27
7-10
27-29
17-21
1982
1982
1982
1983
1983
1983
Approve
34
30
30
26
28
31
Disapprove
57
64
63
70
67
65
No opinion
9
6
7
4
5
4
Apr
Apr
May
Jun
July
7-10
27-28
27-30
25-27
30-31
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
Approve
33
*
34
36
40
Disapprove
63
*
62
62
57
No opinion
4
*
4
2
3
RNC83-8: July 30-31, 1983
REAGAN JOB RATING
Unemployment
Percent
100
Approve
90
Disapprove
80
70
No
70
64
65
Opinion
57
57
60
50
40
40
34
31
30
30
26
20
Decision/Making/Informati
10
0
1
2
3
4
6
7
8
9
10
10
11
11
1
1
3
4
5
6
7
1982
Month
1983
Decision/Making/Information
Reagan Job Rating: Unemployment
"Now a little more specifically. I am going to read you a list of issues. For
each, I would like you to tell me whether you strongly approve ... somewhat
approve ... somewhat disapprove ... or strongly disapprove of the way Ronald
Reagan is handling each of these issues:"
Strongly
Somewhat
Somewhat
Strongly
No
Approve
Approve
Disapprove
Disapprove
Opinion
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
15
25
17
38
4
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
28
36
14
19
4
Farm Belt states
12
24
36
26
3
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
13
25
18
44
1
Senior citizens
20
24
15
34
7
Women
11
25
17
43
4
Catholics
14
23
20
38
5
Independents/Leaners
16
30
18
32
3
White Baptists
16
31
18
34
1
RNC83-8: July 30-31, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Reagan Job Rating -- Inflation
"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ronald Reagan is handling
?"
Jan
Jun
Sep
Jan
Jan
Mar
11-19
15-22
23-27
7-10
27-29
17-21
1982
1982
1982
1983
1983
1983
Approve
51
41
43
42
44
49
Disapprove
43
53
52
55
55
48
No opinion
6
6
5
3
3
3
Apr
Apr
May
Jun
July
7-10
27-28
27-30
25-27
30-31
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
47
*
Approve
50
53
51
Disapprove
50
*
47
45
46
No opinion
3
*
3
2
3
RNC83-8: July 30-31, 1983
REAGAN JOB RATING
Inflation
Percent
100
Approve
90
Disapprove
80
No
70
Opinion
60
57
51
51
50
50
50
47
46
46
40
43
38
30
20
Decision/Making/Informati
10
0
1
3
3
4
6
7
8
9
10
10
11
11
1
1
3
4
5
6
7
1982
Month
1983
Decision/Making/Information
Reagan Job Rating: Inflation
"Now a little more specifically. I am going to read you a list of issues. For
each, I would like you to tell me whether you strongly approve ... somewhat
approve somewhat disapprove or strongly disapprove of the way Ronald
Reagan is handling each of these issues:"
Strongly
Somewhat
Somewhat
Strongly
No
Approve
Approve
Disapprove
Disapprove
Opinion
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
29
23
17
28
3
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
47
28
10
13
2
Farm Belt states
37
18
26
19
0
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
25
21
16
36
2
Senior citizens
35
19
18
22
6
Women
21
23
19
33
3
Catholics
25
19
22
30
3
Independents/Leaners
33
23
17
24
4
White Baptists
29
25
12
32
2
RNC83-8: July 30-31, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Intelligent alternatives
for today's decision makers
6803 Poplar Place, Suite 300, McLean, Virginia 22101, (703) 556-0001
TO:
Senator Paul Laxalt
Frank Fahrenkopf
FROM:
Richard B. Wirthlin
DATE:
August 9, 1983 (RNC 83-8: July 30-31, 1983)
SUBJECT:
Political Climate
Right Direction or Wrong Track?
In the aggregate, American attitudes toward the general status of
the country have remained fairly stable since June. A majority of
respondents continue to believe that the country is on the wrong
track. Nevertheless this pessimism is much less prevalent now than
it was at the first of the year. Respondents were asked:
Generally speaking, would you say that things in this
country are going in the right direction, or have they
pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?
Right direction
42%
Wrong track
50
No opinion
8
Currently, only four in ten respondents believe that the country is
headed in the right direction, while five in ten say it is on the
wrong track. This is, however, a one-point drop in wrong track
scores since last month.
Highest right direction scores come from base Republicans (62%),
college graduates (61%), younger men (56%), white collar workers
(56%), and professionals (54%). Conversely, lowest right direction
scores continue to be found among blacks (15%), strong Democrats
(20%), the unemployed (23%), and the less educated (27%).
Decision/Making Information
Political Climate
August 9, 1983
Page Two
Analysis of the key constituency groups reveals that increases in
right direction scores come from senior citizens (43%) and
Independents/leaners (48%). On the other hand, losses are suffered
among base Republicans (62%) and blue collar workers (39%). The
scores of the respondents from the Farm Belt region (50%), women
(34%), Catholics (43%), and white Baptists (37%) show little change
on this issue since June.
Decision/Making/Information
Right Direction/Wrong Track
"Generally speaking, would you say that things in this country are going in the
right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?"
Feb
Jun
Sep
Jan
June
Sep
20-22
12-14
18-28
11-19
15-22
23-27
1981
1981
1981
1982
1982
1982
Right direction
42
41
46
50
32
33
Wrong track
51
51
47
45
62
63
No opinion
8
8
7
5
6
4
Jan
Jan
Mar
Apr
Apr
May
7-10
27-29
17-21
7-10
27-28
27-30
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
Right direction
33
35
40
38
40
42
Wrong track
64
59
56
56
56
52
No opinion
3
7
4
6
4
6
Jun
July
July
July
July
25-27
6-11
12-17
18-23
30-31
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
Right direction
42
51
43
48
42
Wrong track
51
45
51
45
50
No opinion
7
4
5
7
9
RNC83-8: July 30-31, 1983
RIGHT DIRECTION
or wrong track?
Percent
100
Right
Direction
90
Wrong
Track
80
No
70
67
Opinion
63
64
59
60
56
51 51
50
50
40
45
40
42
33
33
42
36
30
28
20
Decision/Making/Informati
10
0
3 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 1 1 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 7
1982
Month
1983
Decision/Making/Information
Right Direction/Wrong Track
"Generally speaking, would you say that things in this country are going in the
right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?"
Feb
Jun
Sep
Jan
June
Sep
20-22
12-14
18-28
11-19
15-22
23-27
1981
1981
1981
1982
1982
1982
Right direction
42
41
46
50
32
33
Wrong track
51
51
47
45
62
63
No opinion
8
8
7
5
6
4
Jan
Jan
Mar
Apr
Apr
May
7-10
27-29
17-21
7-10
27-28
27-30
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
Right direction
33
35
40
38
40
42
Wrong track
64
59
56
56
56
52
No opinion
3
7
4
6
4
6
Jun
July
July
July
July
25-27
6-11
12-17
18-23
30-31
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
Right direction
42
51
43
48
42
Wrong track
51
45
51
45
50
No opinion
7
4
5
7
9
RNC83-8: July 30-31, 1983