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Ronald Reagan Presidential Library
Digital Library Collections
This is a PDF of a folder from our textual
collections.
Collection: Deaver, Michael
Folder Title: Finkelstein-OSG (1)
To see more digitized collections
visit: https://reaganlibrary.gov/archives/digital-library
To see all Ronald Reagan Presidential Library inventories
visit: https://reaganlibrary.gov/document-collection
Contact a reference archivist at: [email protected]
Citation Guidelines: https://reaganlibrary.gov/citing
National Archives
Catalogue: https://catalog.archives.gov/
hm
12/1
10:0
Arthur J. Finkelstein & Associates
132 Main Street
Mount Kisco, N.Y. 10549
(914) (914) 666-2750
lefter
DR
water October 31, 1983
Deputy Chief of Staff
The White House
Dear Mike:
humester with aftertria aftert this trip. gy,
of
Honorable Michael Deaver
Washington, D.C. 20500
The last time we met I said I thought the gender gap was
caused by the issue of war and peace. I said there were two
options; You can either make the President appear more peaceful,
or you could make the threat of war more apparent. I thought
the peaceful tack wouldn't work.
I think you now have a glorious opportunity (Desive.) to solve this
problem. Do well.
Best,
Arthur J. Finkelstein
AJF:dhd
gd like
m.me mattis Done meeting
12/6/83
10:00 a.m.
Arthur Finkelst
fild
Full
Finkle Poll stein
withher
MICHIGAN
The Finkelstein survey from Michigan, showing RR beating
Mondale or Glenn, is very encouraging. Bear in mind that
the poll was taken in mid-August--before the Korean Air
Lines incident.
In a three-way race between RR, Mondale and Anderson, the
numbers are RR 43%, Mondale 33%, and Anderson 12%. With
Glenn as the Democratic nominee, the numbers are RR 37%,
Glenn 32% and Anderson 13%.
RR's favorable/unfavorable rating is 52% to 37%. That is
high, but it is below the fatal 40% threshold. Furthermore,
we need to remember that the data came from Michigan, one of
the most unionized states in the country, where the unem-
ployment rate--13.1% in July--is the third highest in the
nation. If our numbers are this good before the campaign
really gets going, then we are in very good shape. If the
Democrats can't take Michigan for granted in '84, what
states can they put in the bag? Only a few, such as West
Virginia, Rhode Island, and of course, the District of
Columbia. If we can keep the recovery going, we will force
the Democratic nominee to actively campaign and spend money
in their "safe" states.
The focus of the Finkelstein poll is the Michigan senate
race, which, by the way, shows former Congressman Jim Dunn
beating Loret Ruppe in the GOP primary, 64% to 36%. However,
these numbers show Dunn with barely 40% name i.d., compared
to Ruppe's 64%. So the race, if there is one, is an open
question.
Finkelstein's survey report is short on detail and long on
advocacy. The report, in the form of a memorandum to Dunn
from Finkelstein, is obviously intended to persuade Dunn to
get into the race. Whoever leaked it to the Washington Times
may well have used the positive numbers about the presidential
race to grab headlines, but with the real purpose of calling
attention to the senate race.
Therefore the numbers are somewhat suspect. However, since
they do conform with Bob Teeter's numbers coming from
Michigan, we certainly have grounds for optimism in the
industrial Midwest in '84.
Arthur J. Finkelstein & Associates
132 Main Street
Funtelstein Mount (914)666-2750 Kisco. N.Y.
10549
TO: Jim Dunn
FROM: Arthur J. Finkelstein and Associates
DATE: August 29, 1983
RE:
Michigan Statewide Survey - August, 1983
Methodology: This statewide SURVEY of political attitudes was
administered to 606 eligible voters in Michigan between August 15th and
17th, 1983.
All interviews were conducted by professionally trained interviewers
via telephone. Interview selection was random within predetermined units.
These units were structured to statistically correlate with actual voter
distributions in national elections.
The accuracy of this survey sample of 606 voters is within +4.0% at a
95% confidence interval.
Reading the Tables:
why 606 ?
uw mole/female so/so
The following is a brief explanation of how to read the tables contained
in this report.
The column of numbers immediately to the right, under the heading
"TOTAL," shows the percentage of respondents who gave each of the answers
listed to the left. The percentage is most useful for comparison purposes.
Immediately to the right, under the heading "ADJUSTED," is a column of
numbers which shows E re-calculation that removes those respondents in the
"DON'T KNOW/REFUSED" category at the bottom, and then adjusts the remaining
percentages for the listed responses. For selected questions, there may be
2 column headed "ADJUSTED (2). " This column removes those responses Dext up
from the bottom. (Often these would be those with "No opinion"), and
adjusts the remaining percentages for those with the opinions listed.
Preface: The Jim Dunn candidacy for the United States Senate is
extremely viable due to the following factors:
- Statewide political demographics clearly favor 8 conservative
over a liberal opponent, especially in E Republican Primary,
as well as the general election. This conservative bias of
Michigan voters cuts sharply against liberal incumbent Carl Levin
in favor of the more conservative Jin Dunn.
Jim Dunn
Page 2
Preface: (Cont'd)
-
The national issue agenda among Michigan voters is clearly
dominated by economic issues. Strongly related to these economic
issues are favorable perceptions among the voters for businessmen
and free enterprise solutions. This admiration and respect for
business leaders should cut strongly for businessman Jim Dunn.
-
Ronald Reagan appears to be the strong favorite to win Michigan
in either a Reagan/Mondale/Anderson or a Reagan/Glenn/Anderson
contest. Reagan already has significant leads over both Demc-
cratic challengers in either probable three-way race. This
likelihood of a Reagan victory will help a conservative Republican
challenge to Carl Levin and would certainly benefit Jim Dunn, who
supported Reagan in Congress.
-
Already conservative, businessman Jim Dunn registers a strong lead
over the liberal Lorette Ruppe among Republican Primary voters.
Such a primary allows Jim Dunn to gain credibility and momentum
for his challenge to Carl Levin.
-
Carl Levin is clearly one of the most vulnerable, if not the most
vulnerable, of all Democratic Senators up for re-election in 1984.
Demographic Analysis: Regarding political ideology, among all voters,
conservatives outnumber liberals at a seven-to-four ratio. Although the
center rests with moderates, all other things being equal, it is far easier
for a conservative to form a majority coalition over a more liberal
opponent.
Republican voters are even more conservative in their political
orientation with conservative Republicans outnumbering liberal Republicans
at a nine-to-two ratio. Among Republicans who are most likely to vote in
their primary, the majority are conservatives.
Political Ideology
Republicans
Total
Adjusted
Republicans
Very Prime
Liberal
19.0%
20.2%
10.5%
12.62
Moderate
41.7
44.5
37.8
33.1
Conservative
33.0
35.2
46.9
51.2
Don't Know/Refused
6.3
4.9
3.1
Jim Dunn
Page 3
Political Ideology (Cont'd)
In sharp contrast among those voters who have an opinion of Carl Levin's
ideology, the majority perceive him as a liberal. However, only about three
out of ten voters see Levin as a liberal, while the largest segment, about
four out of ten, don't know what ideology Levin professes.
Relating voter perception of Carl Levin's ideology to voter opinion of
him, Levin's favorables see him as a liberal, however, those with no opinion
of Levin don't know, and the majority of voters unfavorable to him see Levin
as a liberal. It is clear that increased voter awareness of Levin as a
liberal will cut sharply against him.
"Would you say that Carl Levin is a Liberal, a Moderate, or a
Conservative in his political beliefs?"
Levin
Levin
Levin
Total
Adjusted
Favorable
Unfavorable
No Opinion
Liberal
30.2%
51.5%
31.6%
53.8%
22.9%
Moderate
18.2
31.0
28.7
8.8
11.0
Conservative
10.2
17.5
15.8
5.5
6.7
D.K./Ref.
41.4
23.9
crosstab 31.9 to see 59.5 if there are conservate
Issue Analysis: Among all Michigan voters, economic issues are the top
national concerns for roughly two-thirds of the electorate. About one out
of four voters cited foreign policy/defense issues, while the smallest
segment cited various domestic social issues.
"In your opinion, what is the single most important issue facing the
United States today?"
Total
Adjusted
Unemployment
29.0%
30.2%
Economy
23.9
24.9
Military/Defense
6.6
6.9
Nuclear Weapons Freeze
6.3
6.5
Foreign Affairs
4.8
5.0
Inflation
3.8
4.0
War/Peace
3.1
3.3
Taxes
2.1
2.2
People/Morals
2.0
2.1
Government Spending
1.5
1.5
With such high concern for economic issues, it is significant that
Michigan voters cite businessman Lee Iacocca as the person, other than a
political figure, that they most admire.
Jim Dunn
Page 4
"Other than a political figure, which person who lives, works, or is
from Michigan, do you most admire?"
Total
Adjusted
SO what!
Lee Iacocca
9.4%
19.4%
Family Members
7.9
16.6
Religious Figures
5.8
12.1
The one solution to maintain a strong economic recovery that also cuts
sharply against Carl Levin is the fact that an overwhelming majority of
Michigan voters favor a balanced federal budget.
"Would vou tell me whether you approve cr disapprove of a constitutional
amendment requiring a balanced federal budget?"
Total
Adjusted
Approve
68.3%
75.7%
Disapprove
21.9
24.3
Don't Know/Refused
9.7
The issue of capital punishment also receives strong approval from four
of every five Michigan voters and cuts against Levin.
"Would you tell me whether you approve or disapprove of capital
punishment for specific crimes?"
Total
Adjusted
Approve
Jackie's opinion?
79.7%
84.0%
Disapprove
15.2
16.0
Don't Know/Refused
5.1
As the dominant focus of next year's election, the Presidential race is
shaping up as an influence that will benefit Republican candidates in
Michigan.
At present, the majority of Michigan voters have a favorable opinion of
Ronald Reagan and outnumber his unfavorables at a roughly six-to-four ratio.
Reagan receives increasingly higher intensity of support among
conservatives, Republicans, and Reagan is extremely popular among Republican
Primary voters.
Opinion Ronald Reagan
Republican
Total
Adjusted
Conservatives
ReDubs
Prime Unters
Favorable
51.8%
57.9%
of carse
68.0%
78.3%
81.2%
Unfavorable
37.6
42.1
23.5
11.9
12.2
No Opinion
10.6
8.5
9.8
6.6
Never Heard Of
Jim Dunn
Page 5
At this time, Ronald Reagan maintains significant leads over both of the
leading Democratic challengers- Mondale and Glenn with John Anderson as a
distant third party candidate.
Vote for President
Total
Adjusted
Reagan
42.9%
49.1%
Mondale
32.7
37.4
Anderson
11.9
13.6
Undecided
12.5
Reagan
37.1%
45.0%
Glenn
32.3
39.2
Anderson
13.0
15.8
Undecided
17.5
Candidate Analysis:
A) Republican Primary - In a Republican Primary for United States
Senate between Jim Dunn and Lorette Ruppe, among those voters who at this
time have made their firm choice, Dunn has a two-to-one lead over Ruppe.
Combining those Republicans who are leaning to either Dunn or Ruppe,
with those who made a strong choice, among all Republicans who have heard of
both Dunn and Ruppe, Dunn maintains a sizeable lead and receives roughly
seven votes for every four votes Ruppe receives. Although there is a
significant undecided segment, there is every indication that the undecided
voters will cut strongly for Dunn and give Dunn a six-to-four win over
Ruppe. Indicative of Dunn's popular edge over Ruppe is the fact that Dunn
defeats Ruppe in the Lansing media market (Dunn's former Congressional
District) at a six-to-one ratio. As Dunn's imagery grows throughout
Fallacy
Michigan, it is likely that Dunn will receive similar support in other key
regions.
wait till Curet's
Republican Primary - Vote for Senate
Name I.D. catc
Combining Vote and Leaning
Up:
Adjusted
Heard of Both Adjusted Lansing
Ruppe
36.2%
22.2%
39.7%
12.5%
Dunn
63.8
35.2
60.3
66.7
Undecided
42.6
20.8
Jim Dunn wins in a Republican Primary among conservatives, moderates,
Reagan favorables, as the age of the voter increases, middle-income
households, and both male and female Republicans.
Jim Dunn
Page 6
Lorette Ruppe leads only among liberals, Republicans voting for John
Anderson, and households earning more than $50,000 annually.
Lorette Ruppe wins only among the "wine and cheese set, while Jim Dunn
is the choice of middle class and blue collar Republicans.
With Republican Primary voters strongly biased towards conservatism, and
ideology as the leading contrast between Dunn and Ruppe, Dunn widens his
lead among all Republicans and already receives a majority of all voters.
ratio. In such a case, Dunn defeats Ruppe in a landslide by at least a three-to-one
"If you knew the race was between Conservative Jic: Dunn and Liberal
Lorette Ruppe, for whom would you vote?"
Total
Adjusted
push question
Heard of Both
Vote Ruppe/Liberal
14.9%
22.9%
20.4%
Vote Dunn/Conservative
50.3
77.1
55.6
Don't Know/Refused
34.8
24.1
Already the perception is growing among Michigan voters that cuts for
Jim Dunn.
"Tell me something about Jim Dunn?"
Adjusted
Conservative
9.8%
Congressman
150% perception
9.8
Good Man/Like
9.8
Good Ideas
7.8
Honest
5.9
"Tell me something about Lorette Ruppe?"
Adjusted
Phil's Ex-Wife
this
?
20.5%
Peace Corps
Good Speaker
positive is or
15.9)
6370 proption
9.1
ERA Advocate
6.8
A Federal Employee
Liberal
6.5
6
4.5
Nominal
conservative. Already Lorette Ruppe is perceived as the liberal versus Jim Dunn, the
Jim Dunn
Page 7
In three key descriptions that will cut for Jim Dunn, Dunn is viewed as
more supportive of business, the conservative, and the Reagan supporter over
liberal Lorette Ruppe.
"Between Jim Dunn and Lorette Ruppe, who is better described by each of
the following phrases?"
Among Voters Who Have Heard of Both Dunn and Ruppe
"Supports
"Supports
Business"
"A Conservative"
Ronald Reagan"
Dunn
25.9%
35.2%
25.9%
Ruppe
1.9
7.4
3.7
Both
5.6
1.9
5.6
Neither
Don't Know/Refused
66.7
55.6
64.8
In actual pre-announcement match-ups with the incumbent Carl Levin, Dunn
already demonstrates the greater potential to succeed against Levin.
Against Levin, Dunn receives a higher percentage of Republicans than Lorette
Ruppe and receives higher percentages from those who have heard of both
candidates.
Combination Firm Vote and Leaning for United States Senate.
Republican
Republican
Ruppe
42.0%
Dunn
58.0%
Levin
26.6
Levin
23.1)
Tiese will erode to
Undecided
31.5
Undecided
18.9
8-10 5/0 anyway
Heard of Both
Heard of Both
Ruppe
25.2%
Dunn
30.8%
Levin
53.4
Levin
48.6
Undecided
21.4
Undecided
20.6
Jim Dunn would be better able to unite the Republican Party and has a
stronger popular appeal than Lorette Ruppe.
B) General Election - Incumbent Democrat Carl Levin is clearly
vulnerable with a very low level of awareness and generally soft imagery
among all voters.
When asked what voters associate most with Carl Levin, two-thirds of all
voters didn't know, while the leading answers cited Levin as a liberal
Democratic Senator.
Jim Dunn
Page 8
"What issue or action do you most associate with Carl Levin?"
Total
Adjusted
Don't Know
66.3%
United States Senator
9.7
28.9%
good!
Liberal
positive or,
2.6
7.8
Good Man/Like
2.0
5.9
A Politician
2.0
5.9
Democrat
1.7
4.9
Levin's image as a liberal who has done a poor job creates the
all
or
just
unfawrables
foundation for what voters dislike about him.
/
"What do you like least about Carl Levin?"
who
asked
to
Adjusted
Liberal same
that's all ?!
20.2%
Poor Views/Stands
9.6
Wishy-Washy
7.7
Poor Job
46.2 issue-oriented
6.7
Not Visible Enough
6.7
Big Spender
5.8
Pro-Welfare
5.8
Tax Issue
4.8
No Accomplishments
4.8
Some key indicators that illustrate Levin's real vulnerability are that
Levin receives a favorable rating from less than half the voters, and
comparing Levin's positive job ratings of excellent and good with his
negative fair and poor ratings, gives Levin an overall negative rating
of -4.2%.
Opinion Carl Levin
Total
Favorable
44.9%
Unfavorable
15.0
No Opinion
34.7
Never Heard Of
5.4
Levin Job Rating
Total
Excellent
3.1%
Good
27.6
Positive
+30.7%
11
Fair
28.1
Poor
6.8
Negative -34.9
Don't Know/Refused
34.5
Difference - 4.2%
Jim Dunn
Page 9
Another significant indication of Levin's vulnerability is the fact that
by a roughly seven-to-three ratio (among voters with an opinion), they
believe Levin can be defeated for re-election.
"Carl Levin can be defeated for re-election?"
so what!
Total
Adjusted
True
44.7%
68.8%
Untrue
20.3
31.2
Don't Know
35.0
Among all voters, only about one in five would vote for Carl Levin
regardless of his opponent.
"Would you vote to re-elect Carl Levin, Senator, regardless of who ran
against him?"
Total
still a good base
Yes.
21.9%
No/Depends/Don't Know
78.1
For this re-election statistic, a fairly invulnerable incumbent would
register 30% or higher, while vulnerable. incumbent Senators score between 20
and 30%. A score of less than 20% indicates a very probable loss.
Levin's score of 21.9% places him in a very vulnerable position and
almost within the probable loss category.
All combined, Levin is very vulnerable with no intense degree of support
among the voters. In fact, Levin may very well be the most vulnerable
Senate Democrat up for re-election in 1984.
In spite of a significantly lower level of name recognition, Jin Dunn
already holds Carl Levin to less than majority percentages among those
voters who have heard of both. However, once again indicative of Dunn's
potential to beat Levin is the Lansing media market where Jim Dunn has
and has caupains run 2
greater name recognition. In Lansing, Dunn leads Levin by a five-to-three lease
ratio. As Dunn's name identification rises throughout Michigan, other key
areas will follow this pattern. DONH Br So suRe
- yrs. in congress
served 2
Vote for Senate
CEUN'S will RISE TOO.
He has such low perception, its bound ro
Heard of Both
Lansing
So -p.
Dunn
29.1%
50.0%
Levin
45.3
31.0
Undecided
25.5
19.0
Jim Dunn
Page 10
Combination Vote for Senate (Including Leaning Voters)
Heard of Both
Lansing
Dunn
30.8%
52.4%
so DUNN Will carry
Levin
48.6
31.0
Undecided
20.6
16.7
Levin will pick up
kinsing
from undecided
very bad
from DUNN
what about gever gap?
?
what about Ruppe US Leyn -women
teeter
poll
MICHIGAN
The survey from Michigan is very good news. Note that
the poll was taken in July--before the Korean Air Lines
incident and before the recent good ten day auto sales
figures.
RR beats Mondale 48-45 and ties Glenn, 45-45. Keep in
mind that the July unemployment rate for Michigan was
13.1%, the third highest in the nation. Michigan is not
only one of the most unionized states, but the leadership
of the dominant union--the UAW--is aggressively anti-Reagan.
If we can carry Michigan, we can carry every Snowbelt in-
dustrial state against Mondale and all of them save Ohio
against Glenn. Since for all practical purposes we have
the states West of the Mississippi in the bag, we should
have the luxury of taking our campaign into "gravy" states
to build a mandate and help other GOP candidates.
At the same time, the data suggests the Democratic nominee
will have to work to pin down "must" states, like Michigan.
The gender gap is in evidence, but it is not much wider
than in 1980. RR beats Mondale 52-43 among men, but loses
among women 44-47. He beats Glenn 49-41 among men, but
loses among women 41-47.
The reason we are doing so well is that our support remains
high among white middle class groups. In Michigan, the
home of Walter Reuther, we only lose the union vote 39-54
to Mondale and 38-54 to Glenn. RR wins the middle class
vote 49-43 against Mondale and 47-44 against Glenn. RR
carries Macomb County, a blue collar stronghold just out-
side of Detroit, 50-46 against Mondale and by a startling
55-40 against Glenn.
The Catholic church was once the backbone of the Democratic
Party. However, RR loses the Catholic vote to Mondale by
just 1%, 46%-47%, and to Glenn by just 4%, 44%-48%.
If we can keep this up, we will win well over 400 electoral
votes in 1980.
Teeter
access
M.O.R. JOB NO. P83042
T- 1
8/29
Page
MICHIGAN STATEWIDE
(FIELD 7-16/7-25, 1983)
Question 35+35a If the election for President were being held today, who would
you be voting for/Which way do you lean as of today
TOTAL
I
POLITICAL REGION
MEDIA MARKET
VOTER TIPE
OAK-
TRI-
|-OUTSTATE-
DE- FLINT/ G.R./ LAM-
BREAK ONE
SAMPLE REP T/S DEM TROIT DE- SUB WAYNE LAND MACOMB COS. METRO RURAL TROIT SGW KAL.
SING
800
188
319
255
85
100
96
59
340
320
140
398
124
124
64
Total
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
Total Vote
2. Ronald Reagan
386
166
165
38
20
38
57
30
144
163
78
175
57
68
36
48.
88.
52.
15.
23.
38.
59.
50.
42.
51.
56.
44.
46.
55.
55.
1. Walter Mondale
359
18
125
201
62
56
30
27
176
133
51
199
56
48
24
39.
79.
73.
56.
32.
46.
52.
42.
36.
50.
45.
39.
37.
45.
10.
48
4
24
16
3
5
8
2
18
20
9
22
9
6
3
8. Don't know
6.
2.
7.
6.
3.
5.
8.
4.
5.
6.
7.
6.
7.
5.
5.
2
2
2
2
1
7
1
4
1
1
2
3
9. Refused/No answer
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
:x
1.
1.
2.
745
184
290
239
82
94
87
57
320
296
129
374
113
116
60
Committed vote
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
Ronald Reagan
386
156
165
38
20
38
57
30
144
163
78
175
57
68
36
65.
53.
45.
55.
61.
47.
50.
59.
60.
52.
90.
57.
16.
24.
40.
Walter Mondale
359
18
125
201
62
56
30
27
176
133
51
199
56
48
24
48.
10.
43.
84.
76.
60.
35.
47.
55.
45.
39.
53.
50.
41.
40.
56
Normal vote
48
80
50
22
27
44
51
46
42
51
53
44
46
54
PDI (Reagan minus normal vote)
4
10
7
6-
3-
4-
14
7
3
4
8
3
4
5
4
(*= PERCENT LESS THAN .5)
M.O.R. JOB NO. P83042
T- 1
Page
2
MICHIGAN STATEWIDE (FIELD 7-16/7-25, 1983)
Question 35+35a If the election for President were being held today, who would
you be voting for/which way do you lean as of today
TOTAL I
AGE
11
STATUS GROUPS
11
SEX
11 SEL. GRPS I
BREAK TWO
65 E
HIGH
MID
LOWER
CATH-
SAMPLE
18-24
25-34
35-54
55-64
OVER INC. INTELL CLASS END BLACKS MALE FEMALE UNION OLIC
Total
800
77
179
289
136
116
208
76
215
151
69
401
399
260
237
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
Total Vote
2. Ronald Reagan
386
28
94
144
60
58
131
40
105
70
5
208
177
100
110
48.
37.
52.
50.
44.
50.
63.
52.
49.
47.
8.
52.
44.
39.
46.
1. Walter Mondale
359
42
74
130
65
48
67
30
93
71
63
171
188
141
112
45.
54.
42.
45.
48.
42.
32.
39.
43.
47.
91.
43.
47.
54.
47.
8. Don't know
48
7
10
15
6
9
7
6
16
10
1
18
29
19
12
6.
9.
6.
5.
5.
8.
4.
8.
7.
6.
1.
5.
7.
7.
5.
9. Refused/No answer
7
1
2
4
1
3
2
3
4
4
1.
*
1.
3.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
Committed vote
745
70
168
273
126
106
198
70
198
141
68
380
365
241
221
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
Ronald Reagan
386
28
94
144
60
58
131
40
105
70
5
208
177
100
110
52.
40.
56.
53.
48.
54.
66.
57.
53.
50.
8.
55.
49.
42.
50.
Walter Mondale
359
42
74
130
65
48
67
30
93
71
63
171
188
141
112
48.
60.
44.
47.
52.
46.
34.
43.
47.
50.
92.
45.
51.
58.
50.
Normal vote
48
40
52
47
43
51
55
56
49
45
24
50
46
39
43
PDI (Reagan minus normal vote)
4
4
6
5
3
11
1
4
5
16-
5
3
3
7
(.= PERCENT LESS THAN .5)
M.O.R. JOB NO. P83042
T- 2
Page
4
MICHIGAN STATEWIDE
(FIELD 7-16/7-25, 1983)
Question 36+36a If Ronald Reagan was the Republican candidate and John Glenn
was the Democratic candidate for President, who would you be voting for/Which
way do you lean as of today
TOTAL
I
VOTER TIPE
POLITICAL REGION
MEDIA MARKET
I
BREAK ONE
DE-
SUB
OAK-
TRI-
|-OUTSTATE-
DE- FLINT/ G.R./ LAN-
SAMPLE REP
T/S
DEM
TROIT
WAYNE
LAND
MACOMB
COS.
METRO RURAL
TROIT SGW
KAL.
SING
140
398
124
124
64
Total
800
188
319
255
85
100
96
59
340
320
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
Total vote
38
25
35
50
33
143
149
71
172
51
65
30
2. Ronald Reagan
363
160
150
45.
85.
47.
15.
30.
35.
52.
55.
42.
46.
51.
43.
42.
53.
47.
362
23
131
196
54
56
36
24
169
138
55
191
59
48
28
1. John Glenn
40.
48.
39.
43.
45.
12.
41.
77.
63.
56.
37.
40.
50.
43.
40.
8. Don't know
69
6
33
20
5
8
8
2
25
30
13
31
12
10
6
8.
6.
8.
9.
4.
7.
9.
10.
8.
10.
8.
10.
9.
3.
10.
9. Refused/No answer
7
5
1
1
2
3
3
4
2
1
1.
1.
1.
1.
2.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
725
183
281
235
79
91
86
57
312
286
127
363
110
113
58
Committed vote
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
363
160
150
38
25
35
50
33
143
149
71
172
51
65
30
Ronald Reagan
58.
52.
56.
47.
47.
58.
52.
50.
87.
53.
16.
32.
39.
58.
46.
John Glenn
362
23
131
196
54
56
36
24
169
138
55
191
59
48
28
50.
13.
47.
84.
68.
61.
42.
42.
54.
48.
44.
53.
53.
42.
48.
Normal vote
48
80
50
22
27
44
51
46
42
51
53
44
46
54
56
11
PDI (Reagan minus normal vote)
2
7
3
6-
5
5-
7
12
4
1
3
3
1
4
4-
M.O.R. JOB NO. P83042
T- 2
Page
5
MICHIGAN STATEWIDE (FIELD 7-16/7-25, 1983)
Question 36+36a If Ronald Reagan was the Republican candidate and John Glenn
was the Democratic candidate for President, who would you be voting for/Which
way do you lean as of today
TOTAL I
AGE
11
STATUS GROUPS
11
SEX
11
SEL. GRPS 1
BREAK TWO
65 &
HIGH
MID
LOWER
CATH-
SAMPLE 18-24 25-34 35-54 55-64 OVER INC. INTELL CLASS END BLACKS MALE FEMALE UNION OLIC
800
77
179
289
136
116
208
76
215
151
69
401
399
260
237
Total
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
rotal vote
2. Ronald Reagan
35
3:52
363
35
84
134
54
54
118
38
101
68
11
198
165
98
104
45.
46.
47.
46.
39.
46.
57.
50.
47.
45.
16.
49.
41.
38.
44.
1. John Glenn
362
37
78
126
65
56
71
31
95
68
55
175
187
141
113
45.
48.
44.
43.
48.
48.
34.
41.
44.
45.
79.
44.
47.
54.
48.
8. Don't know
69
5
15
27
15
6
18
7
17
14
3
24
44
19
18
9.
1.
8.
9.
11.
5.
8.
9.
8.
10.
5.
6.
11.
7.
8.
2
2
9. Refused/No answer
7
2
2
2
1
2
2
1
4
3
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
725
72
162
260
119
110
189
69
196
136
65
373
352
239
217
Committed vote
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
Ronald Reagan
363
35
84
134
54
54
118
38
101
68
11
198
165
98
104
50.
49.
52.
52.
45.
49.
62.
55.
51.
50.
16.
53.
47.
41.
48.
John Glenn
362
37
78
126
65
56
71
31
95
68
55
175
187
141
113
50.
51.
48.
48.
55.
51.
38.
45.
49.
50.
84.
47.
53.
59.
52.
Normal vote
48
40
52
47
43
51
55
56
49
45
24
50
46
39
43
PDI (Reagan minus normal vote)
2
9
5
2
2-
7
1-
2
5
8-
3
1
2
5
M.O.R. JOB NO. P83042
T- 13
Page 37
MICHIGAN STATEWIDE (FIELD 7-16/7-25, 1983)
Question 1 Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right
direction or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong
track?
POLITICAL REGION
MEDIA MARKET
1
TOTAL
VOTER TIPE
1
DE-
SUB
OAK-
TRI-
|-OUTSTATE-
DE- FLINT/
G.R./
LAN-
BREAK ONE
SAMPLE REP
T/S
DEM
TROIT
WAYNE
LAND
MACOMB
COS.
METRO RURAL
TROIT SGW
KAL.
SING
255
85
100
96
59
340
320
140
398
124
124
64
Total
800
188
319
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
352
123
138
73
26
36
52
29
142
142
67
163
58
64
28
2. Right direction
31.
36.
54.
49.
42.
44.
48.
41.
47.
52.
44.
44.
65.
43.
29.
1. Wrong track
367
45
147
157
54
53
28
27
163
147
58
194
53
48
32
46.
24.
46.
62.
64.
53.
29.
46.
48.
46.
41.
49.
43.
39.
50.
5
9
16
3
33
26
13
38
9
12
11
8. Don't know
72
17
29
22
9.
9.
9.
9.
6.
9.
17.
5.
10.
8.
9.
10.
7.
10.
6.
9. Refused/No answer
9
2
4
2
2
2
5
2
3
3
1
1.
1.
1.
1.
2.
1.
2.
1.
1.
2.
2.
"
M.O.R. JOB NO. P83042
T- 13
Page 38
MICHIGAN STATEWIDE (FIELD 7-16/7-25, 1983)
Question 1 Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right
direction or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong
track?
TOTAL I
AGE
11
STATUS GROUPS
11
SEX
11
BREAK TWO
SEL GRPS I
65 &
HIGH
MID
LOWER
CATH-
SAMPLE
18-24
25-34
35-54
55-64
OVER INC. INTELL CLASS END BLACKS MALE FEMALE UNION OLIC
Total
800
77
179
289
136
116
208
76
215
151
69
401
399
260
237
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
2. Right direction
352
41
90
130
42
48
113
39
101
58
14
199
153
112
99
44.
53.
50.
45.
31.
41.
54.
51.
47.
38.
20.
50.
38.
43.
42.
1. Wrong track
367
32
75
130
78
51
74
30
94
77
48
165
202
122
110
46.
42.
42.
45.
57.
44.
36.
39.
44.
51.
70.
41.
51.
47.
46.
8. Don't know
72
3
13
27
15
14
20
5
15
15
5
30
42
21
25
9.
4.
7.
9.
11.
12.
10.
7.
7.
10.
7.
7.
11.
8.
11.
9. Refused/No answer
9
2
3
2
3
2
5
1
2
7
2
5
2
1.
1.
1.
1.
3.
3.
2.
1.
3.
2.
1.
2.
1.
M.O.R. JOB NO. P83042
T- 17
Page 55
MICHIGAN STATEWIDE (FIELD 7-16/7-25, 1983)
Question 5 How strongly do you approve or disapprove of the way Ronald Reagan
is handling his job as President?
TOTAL
VOTER TYPE
11
BREAK ONE
POLITICAL REGION
MEDIA MARKET
DE-
SUB
OAK-
TRI- -OUTSTATE-
DE- FLINT/
SAMPLE REP
T/S
G.R./
LAN-
DEM
TROIT
WAYNE
LAND
MACOMB
COS.
NETRO
RURAL
TROIT SGW
KAL.
SING
Total
800
188
319
255
85
100
96
59
340
320
140
398
124
100.
124
100.
100.
64
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
4. Strongly approve
160
95
51
11
4
14
26
16
59
71
30
74
23
30
20.
51.
12
16.
11.
5.
14.
27.
27.
17.
22.
21.
19.
19.
24.
19.
3. Somewhat approve
253
68
128
42
17
25
37
16
95
106
52
114
43
32.
49
36.
21
40.
16.
20.
25.
39.
27.
28.
33.
37.
29.
35.
40.
33.
2. Somewhat disapprove
126
10
55
54
24
19
11
8
61
38
26
68
21
16.
5.
11
17.
21.
9
28.
19.
11.
14.
18.
12.
19.
17.
17.
9.
14.
1. Strongly disapprove
201
5
60
128
38
28
18
17
102
75
25
114
28
25.
24
3.
18
19.
50.
45.
28.
19.
29.
30.
23.
18.
29.
23.
19.
28.
8. Don't know
47
9
20
16
3
12
3
2
19
24
4
20
7
10
6.
4
5.
6.
6.
4.
12.
3.
3.
6.
8.
3.
5.
6.
8.
6.
9. Refused/No answer
13
1
4
5
3
1
1
4
7
2
9
1
2.
1.
1
1.
2.
3.
1.
2.
1.
2.
1.
2.
1.
2.
Collapsed codes
"
Approve
413
163
180
53
21
38
63
32
154
177
82
187
52.
66
78
87.
56.
33
21.
25.
38.
66.
54.
45.
55.
59.
47.
53.
63.
52.
Disapprove
327
16
114
181
62
47
29
25
163
113
52
182
50
41.
35
9.
36.
26
71.
73.
47.
30.
42.
48.
35.
37.
46.
40.
28.
41.
M.O.R. JOB NO. P93042
T- 17
Page 56
MICHIGAN STATEWIDE (FIELD 7-16/7-25, 1983)
Question 5 How strongly do you approve or disapprove of the way Ronald Reagan
is handling his job as President?
TOTAL 1
AGE
II
STATUS GROUPS
11
SEX
11
SEL GRPS I
BREAK TWO
65 E
HIGH
MID
LOWER
CATH-
SAMPLE
18-24
25-34
35-54
55-64
OVER
INC.
INTELL
CLASS
END
BLACKS
MALE
FEMALE
UNION
OLIC
Total
800
77
179
289
136
116
208
76
215
151
69
401
399
260
237
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
4. Strongly approve
160
9
33
67
25
25
62
17
43
27
2
93
68
39
46
20.
12.
18.
23.
18.
22.
30.
22.
20.
18.
3.
23.
17.
15.
19.
3. Somewhat approve
253
32
68
88
37
28
83
23
73
40
10
126
127
74
76
32.
42.
38.
30.
27.
24.
40.
30.
34.
26.
14.
31.
32.
28.
32.
2. Somewhat disapprove
126
11
29
43
26
16
24
11
39
29
11
53
73
38
42
16.
14.
16.
15.
19.
14.
12.
14.
18.
19.
16.
13.
18.
15.
18.
1. Strongly disapprove
201
20
39
71
39
32
27
21
44
37
41
102
99
84
59
25.
26.
22.
25.
29.
28.
13.
28.
20.
25.
59.
25.
25.
32.
25.
8. Don't know
47
4
8
14
7
14
11
2
12
15
2
21
26
19
13
6.
5.
4.
5.
5.
12.
5.
3.
6.
10.
3.
5.
7.
7.
5.
9. Refused/No answer
13
1
2
5
3
2
2
1
4
3
2
7
6
6
2
2.
1.
1.
2.
2.
2.
1.
1.
2.
2.
3.
2.
2.
2.
1.
Collapsed codes
Approve
413
41
101
155
62
52
145
40
116
66
13
219
195
113
122
52.
53.
56.
54.
46.
45.
70.
53.
54.
44.
19.
55.
49.
43.
51.
Disapprove
327
31
68
115
65
48
51
32
83
66
52
155
172
122
100
41.
40.
38.
40.
48.
41.
25.
42.
39.
44.
75.
39.
43.
47.
42.
M.O.R. JOB NO. P83042
T- 18
Page 58
MICHIGAN STATEWIDE (FIELD 7-16/7-25, 1983)
Question 6+7 Do you think President Reagan's policies have been fair and even-handed or not/All in
all, are you and your family better off, worse off, or about the same as you were when Ronald Reagan
first took office?
TOTAL
1
VOTER TYPE
BREAK ONE
1
POLITICAL REGION
MEDIA MARKET
DE-
SUB
OAK-
TRI-
-OUTSTATE-
SAMPLE REP
T/S
DEM
DE- FLINT/ G.R./ LAN-
TROIT
WAYNE
LAND
MACOMB
COS.
METRO
RURAL
TROIT
SGW
KAL.
SING
Total
800
188
319
255
85
100
96
59
340
320
140
100.
398
100.
124
100.
124
100.
64
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
06 President Reagan's policies
2. Fair and evenhanded
367
147
151
50
17
35
58
30
140
154
73
167
46.
78.
57
47.
67
20.
20.
31
35.
60.
51.
41.
48.
52.
42.
46.
54.
48.
1. Not fair and evenhanded
365
26
133
190
64
53
32
25
174
139
52
199
60
46.
44
14.
42.
75.
75.
26
53.
33.
42.
51.
43.
37.
50.
48.
35.
41.
8. Don't know
57
13
30
12
4
11
5
2
22
21
14
25
5
7.
7.
12
9.
5.
6
5.
11.
5.
3.
6.
7.
10.
6.
4.
10.
9.
9. Refused/No answer
11
2
6
3
2
1
1
4
6
1
7
1
1.
1
1.
2.
1.
1
2.
1.
2.
1.
2.
1.
2.
1.
1.
2.
Q7 Since Ronald Reagan first
took office
3. Better
143
71
48
18
7
13
28
10
58
64
21
72
16
18.
26
38.
15.
14
7.
8.
13.
29.
17.
17.
20.
15.
18.
13.
21.
22.
2. About the same
450
100
199
128
43
62
46
30
181
179
90
212
77
56.
53.
70
62.
50.
34
51.
62.
48.
51.
53.
56.
64.
53.
62.
56.
53.
1. Worse
200
17
68
107
35
25
22
19
101
71
29
112
25.
31
24
9.
21.
16
42.
41.
25.
23.
32.
30.
22.
21.
28.
25.
19.
25.
8. Don't know
5
3
1
5
1
1
4
1.
1.
*
11
2.
1.
*
3.
9. Refused/No answer
2
2
2
1.
1.
(*= PERCENT LESS THAN .5)
M.O.R. JOB NO. P83042
T- 18
Page 59
MICHIGAN STATEWIDE (FIELD 7-16/7-25, 1983)
Question 6+7 Do you think President Reagan's policies have been fair and even-handed or not/All in
all, first are took you office? and your family better off, worse off, or about the same as you were when Ronald Reagan
BREAK TWO
TOTAL I
AGE
11
STATUS GROUPS
11
SEX
65 & HIGH
MID
I SEL. GRPS I
LOWER
SAMPLE
18-24
25-34
35-54
55-64
CATH-
OVER
INC.
INTELL
CLASS
END
BLACKS
MALE
FEMALE
UNION
OLIC
Total
800
77
179
289
136
116
208
76
215
151
100.
100.
69
401
100.
100.
399
260
100.
100.
100.
237
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
06
President Reagan's policies
2. Fair and evenhanded
367
37
84
134
53
57
130
38
103
60
7
46.
48.
190
47.
177
46.
39.
97
49.
100
63.
50.
48.
40.
10.
47.
44.
37.
42.
1. Not fair and evenhanded
365
36
83
132
66
48
65
35
90
46.
71
47.
58
183
46.
182
46.
49.
143
41.
113
31.
46.
42.
47.
84.
46.
46.
55.
48.
8. Don't know
57
4
11
19
14
10
11
4
19
7.
16
5.
3
22
6.
35
7.
10.
17
9.
5.
22
5.
9.
11.
4.
5.
9.
7.
9.
9. Refused/No answer
11
1
5
3
2
2
3
3
2
6
1.
1.
5
4
2.
2.
2.
2
1.
1.
2.
3.
1.
1.
2.
1.
Q7 Since Ronald Reagan first
took office
3. Better
143
13
41
52
19
19
56
14
39
18.
17
17.
3
88
23.
18.
55
14.
31
16.
42
27.
18.
18.
11.
4.
22.
14.
12.
18.
2. About the same
450
43
93
154
77
81
118
48
119
84
56.
56.
36
209
52.
241
53.
57.
153
70.
57.
133
63.
55.
56.
52.
52.
60.
59.
56.
1. Worse
200
20
42
83
38
17
35
13
53
25.
50
26.
30
23.
102
29.
28.
99
74
15.
17.
17.
61
25.
33.
43.
25.
25.
28.
26.
8. Don't know
5
1
1
1
2
1
3
1.
1.
1
4
1.
*
1.
1
1
1.
1.
**
1.
**
*
9. Refused/No answer
2
2
2
1.
1.
2
2
1.
(*= PERCENT LESS THAN .5)
M.O.R. JOB NO. P83042
T-203
Page 175
MICHIGAN STATEWIDE (FIELD 7-16/7-25, 1983)
Question II In the last general election in which you voted, which answer best
describes how you voted for state and local offices such as governor and
senator?
TOTAL
VOTER TYPE
POLITICAL REGION
MEDIA MARKET
BREAK ONE
DE-
SUB
OAK-
TRI- |-OUTSTATE-
DE- FLINT/
G.R./
LAN-
SAMPLE REP
T/S
DEM
TROIT
WAYNE
LAND
MACOMB
COS.
METRO
RURAL
TROIT
SGW
KAL.
SING
Total
800
188
319
255
85
100
96
59
340
320
140
398
124
124
64
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
01. Straight Democratic
105
105
32
14
7
6
60
36
9
68
16
12
1
13.
41.
38.
14.
7.
10.
18.
11.
6.
17.
13.
10.
2.
02. Mostly Democratic
150
150
25
22
20
14
81
45
25
86
19
17
13
19.
59.
29.
22.
21.
24.
24.
14.
18.
22.
15.
14.
20.
03. A few more Democrats than
78
78
7
11
3
7
28
34
15
35
17
9
5
Republicans
10.
24.
8.
11.
3.
12.
8.
11.
11.
9.
14.
7.
8.
04. About equally for both parties
164
164
11
18
18
18
65
70
30
76
25
30
16
21.
51.
13.
18.
19.
31.
19.
22.
21.
19.
20.
24.
25.
05. A few more Republicans than
77
77
2
8
9
3
23
37
17
29
17
15
8
Democrats
10.
24.
2.
8.
9.
5.
7.
12.
12.
7.
14.
12.
13.
06. Mostly Republican
136
136
5
13
23
10
50
55
30
62
17
23
11
17.
72.
6.
13.
24.
17.
15.
17.
21.
16.
14.
19.
17.
07. Straight Republican
52
52
6
9
1
15
27
11
20
10
10
9
7.
28.
6.
9.
2.
4.
8.
8.
5.
118.
8.
14.
08. Other
3
1
2
1
3
3
X:
1.
2.
1.
1.
1.
09. Never voted
6
1
1
2
4
5
1
1
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
2.
98. Don't know
23
2
4
4
10
11
2
11
3
6
1
3.
2.
4.
4.
3.
3.
1.
3.
2.
5.
2.
99. Refused/No answer
5
1
2
3
2
1
3
2
1.
1.
2.
1.
1.
1.
1.
2.
Combined Voter-Type
Republican
188
188
5
18
32
11
65
82
41
82
27
33
20
24.
100.
6.
18.
33.
19.
19.
26.
29.
21.
22.
27.
31.
Ticket-Splitter
319
319
20
37
30
28
115
140
63
140
58
53
28
40.
100.
24.
37.
31.
47.
34.
44.
45.
35.
47.
43.
44.
Democrat
255
255
57
36
27
20
141
80
33
154
35
28
14
32.,
100.
67.
36.
28.
34.
41.
25.
24.
39.
28.
23.
22.
Marginal
38
4
8
7
18
17
3
22
3
8
2
5.
5.
8.
7.
5.
5.
2.
6.
2.
6.
3.
(*= PERCENT LESS THAN .5)
M.O.R. JOB NO. P83042
T-203
Page 176
MICHIGAN STATEWIDE (FIELD 7-16/7-25, 1983)
Question II In the last general election in which you voted, which answer best
describes how you voted for state and local offices such as governor and
senator?
TOTAL
1
AGE
11
STATUS GROUPS
11
SEX
BREAK TWO
11 SEL GRPS I
65 E
HIGH
MID
LOWER
CATH-
SAMPLE
18-24
25-34
35-54
55-64
OVER
INC.
INTELL
CLASS
END
BLACKS
MALE
FEMALE
UNION
OLIC
Total
800
77
179
289
136
116
208
76
215
151
69
401
399
260
237
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
01. Straight Democratic
105
16
14
31
24
20
16
5
15
24
34
53
52
46
28
13.
21.
8.
11.
18.
17.
8.
7.
7.
16.
49.
13.
13.
18.
12.
02. Mostly Democratic
150
12
37
62
25
14
26
15
40
31
20
74
76
65
54
19.
16.
21.
21.
18.
12.
13.
20.
19.
21.
29.
18.
19.
25.
23.
03. A few more Democrats than
78
10
21
31
8
8
22
9
29
7
3
38
40
Republicans
34
28
10.
13.
12.
11.
6.
7.
11.
12.
13.
5.
4.
9.
10.
13.
12.
04. About equally for both parties
164
18
37
58
30
21
36
17
53
42
6
73
91
50
53
21.
23.
21.
20.
22.
18.
17.
22.
25.
28.
9.
18.
23.
19.
22.
05. A few more Republicans than
77
7
14
34
13
9
30
7
21
9
1
47
30
Democrats
19
24
10.
9.
8.
12.
10.
8.
14.
9.
10.
6.
1.
12.
8.
7.
10.
06. Mostly Republican
136
7
36
48
23
21
58
12
35
15
4
79
56
27
33
17.
9.
20.
17.
17.
18.
28.
16.
16.
10.
6.
20.
14.
10.
14.
07. Straight Republican
52
2
11
13
6
18
14
10
12
13
23
29
9
10
7.
3.
6.
4.
4.
16.
7.
13.
6.
9.
6.
7.
3.
4.
08. Other
3
2
2
3
3
1
1
*
1.
1.
1.
1.
**
*
09. Never voted
6
4
2
1
1
3
1
2
4
2
1.
5.
1.
*
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
98. Don't know
23
2
4
7
5
5
3
6
10
1
9
15
7
3
3.
3.
2.
2.
4.
4.
1.
3.
7.
1.
2.
4.
3.
1.
99. Refused/No answer
5
1
2
2
1
1
4
2
2
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
"
1.
1.
1.
Combined Voter-Type
Republican
188
9
48
61
29
39
71
22
47
28
4
103
86
36
44
24.
12.
27.
21.
21.
34.
34.
29.
22.
19.
6.
26.
22.
14.
19.
Ticket-Splitter
319
34
73
123
50
38
89
33
103
58
10
158
161
102
105
40.
44.
41.
43.
37.
33.
43.
43.
48.
38.
14.
39.
40.
39.
44.
Democrat
255
27
51
94
49
33
43
20
56
55
54
127
128
110
82
32.
35.
28.
33.
36.
28.
21.
26.
26.
36.
78.
32.
32.
42.
35.
Marginal
38
6
8
12
7
6
5
1
10
10
2
14
24
12
6
5.
8.
4.
4.
5.
5.
2.
1.
5.
7.
3.
3.
6.
5.
3.
(*= PERCENT LESS THAN .5)
read. 8/17/8
&1
Arthur J. Finkelstein & Associates
132 Main Street
Mount Kisco, N.Y. 10549
(914) 666-2750
August 9, 1983
Honorable Michael Deaver
Deputy Chief of Staff
The White House
Washington, D.C. 20500
Dear Michael:
If there is one thing I have preached to you, it has been to
set an agenda in three distinctly different areas - the economy,
foreign policy, and social issues - and continue to say the same
thing in different and interesting ways over and over again. I
still think the three issues should be crime, Soviet expansionism
(especially Western Europe and now Central America), and cutting
spending or balancing the budget.
Just as I thought the postman commercial on Social Security
was a mistake because it talked to the Democratic issue, so too
is it a mistake to talk to the gender gap, blacks, etc.
We cannot ignore women, minorities, liberals, but we must talk
to every special interest group on our turf. Certainly there is a
package that can be put together on crime, the economy, and national
defense which will appeal to women as women. A speech to a black
group could start off with, "I know I am not going to receive any
votes in this audience, but I have a commitment, a mandate to continue
the precise economic policy that is lifting America out of the deepest
recession since the 1930's. This economic miracle, built on cutting
government spending, reducing taxes is working. Black Americans,
indeed all Americans, are going back to work. Inflation rates are
down, interest rates have come down, and this administration is going
to fight to keep what's working, working. I am not going to turn
back to the failed policy of the previous Democratic administration.
This country is not going to turn back to the liberal programs which
got us into the economic chaos that we found when we took office.
Etc. Etc."
Hon. Michael Deaver
August 9, 1983
Page Two
Michael, the point is that whether it's a woman's group, a black
group, or left handed punks, this administration must say the same
thing over, and over, and over again.
Finally, although education would not have been my number one
choice of an issue to exploit, clearly, simply by taking the initiative
you were able to put some Democrats on the defensive. Don't let go of
it.
Someone told me something like 60 percent of the teachers in Houston
were unable to pass a simple reading skills test. What a tremendous way
for the President to promote the issue. If he were seen outside a
middle class public school in Houston, holding up the report and saying
this is why we need merit pay.
Best as always. Keep trying.
Sincerely,
the Arthur J. Finkelstein
AJF:dhd
RGD -- 3/25/83
65% wome ID
OSG AGENDA
(1) Introduction of "OSG"
Baker/Deaver/Darman
-- modelled on "LSG":
limited membership/principals only/guests only as
invited by chairman/co-chairman/coordinator;
collegial/frank/oriented toward building consensus
and mobilizing coordinated action;
focused on limited number or priorities -- with
measurable objectives, and lead individuals
responsible for each;
both strategic and action-oriented;
leak-proof;
invisible to public for at least six months from
inception and/or at least 3 months from
achievement of two major objectives;
capable of fitting agendas on a single page.
(2) Initial priorities
Darman
-- develop and implement plans to
increase support among:
(a)
"populists"
Catholic
(b)
"blue collars"
women
(c) Hispanics
(d) Older Americans
small Businessaren
-- develop and implement a plan to give meaning/
momentum to principal secondary domestic theme: to
wit, education for the future/high technology
development.
(3) Initial discussion re "Populists"
Atwater
[Note: Previoulsy circulated paper is for background only.
Discussion should focus on action agenda items.]
(4) Next steps re other Priorities
Group
RECOMMENDATIONS
There are some concrete steps we can take to improve our standing
with the populists-- in terms of symbolism and issues.
A. Symbolism
As we plan our populist strategy, we should remember that populists
appreciate honesty, cander, and straight-forwardness. They loathe hypocrisy,
condescension, and pretense. Our strategy must be carefully planned and
be consistent to avoid these pitfalls. Below are some specific suggestions:
1. The President could do the play-by-play for a pro baseball or
football game. How many people know that the President is a
former sportscaster? The President's image would be boosted
immeasurably if he were to show off his microphone expertise
alongside populist heroes such as Curt Gowdy or Frank Gifford.
2. Many presidents (though not lately) have thrown out the first
ball at the beginning of the baseball season. This is a tradi-
tion which could easily enough be revived. Perhaps the President
could be with Jim Brady if the Bear throws out the first ball
for a Chicago Cubs game again.
3.
The President could go to a stock car race. Although stock car
racing is neglected by the media, it is one of the nation's
biggest spectator sports. And those spectators are almost 100%
populists.
4. The President could host a group of football or baseball stars--
former and current--over to the White House. It is just as
important to invite retired stars, as populists are old as well
as young. We cannot over-emphasize the importance of sports to
the populists. Sports like baseball and football are literally
as American as apple pie. Sports--team and individual--epitomize
valuable characteristics such as discipline, hard work, and per-
severance. The President's connection with sports has been
neglected. The public should be reminded that the President is
a former athlete and sportscaster, and that he still enjoys
watching a game on TV as much as the next guy.
5. The President could ask the 50 Reagan-Bush State Chairmen to
each designate one blue collar worker to come to the White House
and tell President Reagan what he or she thinks he ought to know.
6. If this program worked well, it could be repeated indefinitely.
For example, the Reagan-Bush Chairmen could each choose an
entrepeneur from their state who has recently started a small
business that provides jobs. Additionally, the Chairmen could
each select a farmer, working mother, Social Security recipient,
outstanding student, star athlete, etc.
Populists like to see the chasm between themselves and the elite
TOOR
narrowed. We could narrow that gap overnight by inviting some
of the hundreds of thousands of Americans who write to the
President each year to actually come visit the White House and
talk to him in person.
8. Also in the interest of narrowing the gap between the government
and the governed, we should give some serious thought to accepting
some of the myriad invitations to conventions, parties, weddings,
baptisms, etc. that the President gets each year.
9. The President is personally the greatest conservationist since
Teddy Roosevelt. Not since TR has there been a president who
spent so much time in the great outdoors. Not only does the
President spend as much time as he can on his ranch, but he
actually works with his hands when he's out there. Perhaps the
President could invite others to come along. They could be rodeo
champions, working cowboys, or perhaps "dudes" who would like
to try "roughing it" for a few days. Our one "in house" rodeo
champion is Malcolm Baldrige. Perhaps the President could do
the announcing at an event where the Secretary performs.
10. No other president, no matter how beloved by the Sierra Club, can
claim the same level of genuine familiarity and affinity with out-
door life. The President may want to stop at a national park some
time to make this point in person. He might say that people can
honestly differ over the nuances of environmental policy, but that
people who say that Ronald Reagan is out to damage the environment
are not being honest.
11. An event could be arranged at the White House for "blue collar
environmentalists," those non-granola eating working class
Americans who drive their pickups and RV's into the country to
hunt, fish, boat, etc. Perhaps they could all drive to the White
House in their pickups and campers to discuss issues of common
concern with the President.
12. The President could stress "blue collar environmentalism" in a
speech to the National Rifle Association. Its members have a
great interest in pragmatic environmental policy. Also, their
political clout is much greater than most people realize, viz. the
defeat of the California gun control initiative. Recall that
Ronald Reagan was the first candidate the NRA ever endorsed. How-
ever, the current pro-Reagan leadership of the NRA is being
seriously challenged by forces allied with Michigan Democrat John
Dingell. An appearance by the President at an NRA fundraiser would
greatly strengthen the pro-Reagan incumbents.
13. The President could greatly advance his education agenda and help
himself with the populists if he spoke to a conservative education
group, such as the PTA or the National Association of School Boards.
2
The President might also consider speaking at a high school or
grammar school commencement. There is no reason why the school
has to be large. Surely we can find a traditionally-minded public
school which never lost sight of the three R's and still graduates
achievers without huge expenditures or frills.
14. Since nationalistic themes appeal to the populists' patriotism,
the President might consider an event marking the anniversary of
some great battle or treaty, preferably dating from the Revolu-
tionary War. Another important date on the horizon is the 40th
anniversary of D-Day, which comes up on June 6, 1984.
15. The President should seize the opportunity to emphasize his
Kool
continuing commitment to human rights in the captive nations of
Eastern Europe. He could meet with Cardinal Cooke of New York,
and participate in a candlelight vigil for Solidarity, Soviet
Jews, imprisoned Pentecostals, etc.
16. The President has great communication skills. He could utilize
them to the fullest to a sympathetic audience if he were to do
a question-and-answer show over a nationwide hookup of FM
country music radio stations. The advantage of radio is that
the market is so segmented that we can seek out and find the
precise populist audience we want.
17. The President could also lend his stature to a charity telethon,
such as the Jerry Lewis telethon for muscular dystrophy. A
Presidential appearance would certainly generate record contri-
butions.
18. The President's philosophy and that of voluntarist groups like
the Boy Scouts and Girl Scouts are very much in tune. We should
keep this in mind as we weigh the numerous invitations that pour
into the White House every day.
19. The family has a special place in American life. The President
is a son, husband, brother, father, and grandfather. All Americans
enjoy celebrating holidays, birthdays, and reunions. They are
showing increasing interest in their "roots." The President is
uniquely qualified to explain to his fellow citizens how his
vision for America speaks to their concerns and aspirations and
how his policies address those concerns and aspirations. By word
and deed, the President can help the families of America celebrate
their unity and their diversity.
20. After the family, the greatest American social institution is the
neighborhood, or community. From the Mayflower Compact, through
quilting bees, all the way to Mothers Against Drunk Driving,
Americans have seen the necessity, and the desirability, of uniting
to achieve common goals. As the President draws attention to the
diversity of American neighborhoods, he should devote careful
attention to the unique sounds, sights, words, and foods of each.
3
Particular attention should be given to ethnic foods. The
President eating pizza or munching on a gyros is always worth a
spot on TV or a picture in the newspaper.
21. Work is what built this country. Incentives and rewards for pro-
ductive work are central to the President's Economic Recovery
Program. The President can visit high schools where the workers
of the future are being trained, and he can visit the high tech
factories where the products of the future are being produced.
Just as importantly, the President can visit the older workplaces
of smokestack America, where he can offer his assurances that
the heavy industries that built this country will not be left
behind.
22. To have peace, we must have strength. This is the essential
message of the Administration's national security policies.
The President must cut through the noisy rhetoric of our opponents
and remind the American people of the bottom line: America is at
peace. Populists in particular feel strongly that we must not
only have peace; we must have peace with honor. Populists don't
want any more Irans. They are less worried about America being
loved than they are about America being respected. The President
can "humanize" our national defense policies and bring the issue
down to "human scale" by visiting with ordinary soldiers and
sailors. After meeting with those who are bearing the burden of
our freedom today, he can meet with those who have borne it in
the past: veterans and their dependents.
B. Issues
We have to remember that populists are in sympathy with us mostly on
cultural and nationalistic issues, i.e. social and foreign policy. On
economic issues the populists tend to side more with the Democrats. The
economic issues we should stress with the populists are:
1. Jobs. Populists are still loyal to the WPA/CCC-type programs that
gave jobs to their fathers and grandfathers. They would rather be
working in the private sector, but they consider public works em-
ployment to be better than nothing--and much better than welfare.
The gas tax legislation and now the jobs bill will both put blue
collar, hard hat Americans back to work. We should not hesitate
to take credit for these bills.
In the future, we should continue to emphasize the job creation
aspects of all our economic policies. Populists want to hear "jobs,
jobs, jobs" over and over again.
2. Housing. Closely related to the jobs issue is housing. Construc-
tion workers tend to be populists, but they are pro-Republican.
The key to making them happy is putting them back to work, and the
key to putting them back to work is lowering interest rates. We
should always mention how many Americans will be able to afford new
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homes--and how many jobs will be created in the construction of
those homes-thanks to our success in lowering interest rates.
The foreign policy issue we should emphasize with the populists is:
1. National Defense. Populists are hawks. Long after much of the
elite had abandoned our cause in Vietnam, the populists continued
to stand up for America's national honor. Populists still wear
American flag decals on their hardhats. They still say: America-
love it or leave it.
We should continually stress nationalistic themes in our communi-
cations. We should emphasize that America is once again respected
around the world, thanks to President Reagan's defense buildup.
We can point out that there have been no more Irans and Afghanistans
since President Reagan's inauguration.
We believe that the social issues listed below serve to reinforce our
strength with the populists while not jeopardizing our overall coalition:
1. Education. Americans are deeply concerned about deteriorating
standards and discipline in our schools. President Reagan has
already addressed these concerns, with programs and proposals to
improve computer literacy, to direct special aid to science and
math instruction, to eliminate counterproductive school busing,
promote tuition tax credits, and so on.
The President can continue to press for educational reforms. He
can push for higher teacher competency standards, for more job-
oriented instruction, and further advances in high technology
training. At the same time, he can continue to stress the im-
portance of basic instruction, school prayer, and morality.
2. Immigration. Just about everyone agrees that the current situa-
tion is out of hand. Populists are not racists because they want
to regain control of our borders. They worry about their jobs and
that traditional American values and institutions are being eroded.
3. Crime. In terms of politics, the issue comes and goes. But in
terms of victims, the problem gets worse and worse. Populists
lean toward no-nonsense justice that puts cops on the streets and
crooks in jail.
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