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[06/29/1999 – 07/08/1999]
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209205148
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[06/29/1999 – 07/08/1999]
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Presidential Electronic Mail from the Automated Records Management System (ARMS)
Automated Records Management System (ARMS) Email from the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) Bucket
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42-t-26444786-20140316F-006-003-2019
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Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet
Clinton Library
DOCUMENT NO.
SUBJECT/TITLE
DATE
RESTRICTION
AND TYPE
001. email
SSN [partial] (1 page)
06/30/1999
P6/b(6)
002. email
SSN [partial] (1 page)
06/30/1999
P6/b(6)
003. email
SSN & Passport No. [partial] (1 page)
07/01/1999
P6/b(6)
004. email
To R. Lawrence, re Vitae [nonselection] (16 pages)
07/06/1999
P6/b(6)
COLLECTION:
Clinton Presidential Records
Automated Records Management System
CEA (Robert Z. Lawrence)
OA/Box Number: 950000
FOLDER TITLE:
[06/29/1999 - 07/08/1999]
2014-0316-F
wr10748
RESTRICTION CODES
Presidential Records Act [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)]
Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)]
P1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA]
b(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA]
P2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA]
b(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of
P3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA]
an agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA]
P4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or
b(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA]
financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA]
b(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial
P5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President
information [(b)(4) of the FOIA)
and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA]
b(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
P6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA]
personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA]
b(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement
purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA]
C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed
b(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of
of gift.
financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA]
PRM. Personal record misfile defined in accordance with 44 U.S.C.
b(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information
2201(3).
concerning wells [(b)(9) of the FOIA]
RR. Document will be reviewed upon request.
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Steven N. Braun ( CN=Steven N. Braun/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
CREATION DATE/TIME:29-JUN-1999 18:25:55.00
SUBJECT: Re: Morning Meeting for 06/29/99
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Adobe Acrobat
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Rebecca M. Blank ( CN=Rebecca M. Blank/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
CREATION DATE/TIME:29-JUN-1999 09:22:52.00
SUBJECT: Phone Message from Robert Bernie
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA
READ:UNKNOWN
CC: Francine P. Obermiller ( CN=Francine P. Obermiller/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Robert --
This guy wants to be invited to the Wedn. Morning breakfasts. H'es
evidently pretty new at SBA, and in part wants to network with other
economists. I told him we'd be happy to put him on the invite list, but
that we'd just stopped for the remainder of the summer. IN any case, when
things start again in September, you should include him (and maybe ask him
to speak as well.) Francine, can you see that he's on the list in
September?
Thanks.
Becky
Forwarded by Rebecca M. Blank/CEA/EOP on 06/29/99
09:21 AM
From: Francine P. Obermiller on 06/29/99 09:12:24 AM
Record Type: Record
To:
Rebecca M. Blank/CEA/EOP@EOP
cc:
While You Were Out
While You Were Out
Contact:
of:
Phone:
FAX:
Robert Bernie
Ch Economist, Ofc of Advocacy, U.S. SBA
202-205-6875
Message:
Contact: Robert Bernie
Company: Ch Economist, Ofc of Advocacy, U.S. SBA
Phone: 202-205-6875
FAX:
Message: Harry Holzer told him that you conducted a weekly chief
economists meeting, and he would like to be put on the invitation list.
(This message was left on voicemail yesterday after I left. I left it on
for you to listen to. The only meeting that I can think of would be the
breakfast meeting, but that's not every week.)
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ] )
CREATION DATE/TIME:29-JUN-1999 08:29:54.00
SUBJECT: Re: Reunion
TO: [email protected] ([email protected] [ UNKNOWN ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Jeff, I seem to have got my message screwed up. I have to be in Paris for
meetings on the 13th and 14th of September. That means that I could make
the weekend of the 11th in Paris but not the previous weekend. I thought
we were talking about the 4th and 5th of September in the US not Europe. I
will also be going to Paris in early December, though the date is not yet
firm. So how about the US ?
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Lisa D. Branch ( CN=Lisa D. Branch/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
CREATION DATE/TIME:29-JUN-1999 16:24:33.00
SUBJECT: Travel to Boston, Mon, 7/19
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [CEA])
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Per the attached, the organizers do not want to pay for your departure
from National (too costly). So, a decision needs to be made immediately:
do you leave around 8 or 9 am fm Dulles?
Forwarded by Lisa D. Branch/CEA/EOP on 06/29/99
04:22 PM
Deborah Taylor <[email protected]>
06/29/99 09:30:43 AM
Record Type: Record
To: Lisa D. Branch/CEA/EOP
cc:
Subject: Urgent Boston
** High Priority **
Due to astronomical costs Dr. Lawrence's departure from National is beyond
our pay scale. If he could please use Dulles airport, leaving Dulles at
8:30 on United airlines and returning on a 3:00 flight from Boston it
would be appreciated. Sorry for the previous notice. I only had flight
information.
Thanks.
Deborah Taylor
U.S. Grains Council
1400 K Street, NW
Suite 1200
Washington, DC 20005
(202) 789 - 0789
(202) 898 - 0522 fax
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Raymond P. Guiteras ( CN=Raymond P. Guiteras/OU=CEA/O=EOP [CEA])
CREATION DATE/TIME:29-JUN-1999 14:59:02.00
SUBJECT: Re: IRUP pitches will be late tonight
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA D
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
actually, i hadn't started - so thanks for a good start!
raymond
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Joseph E. Aldy ( CN=Joseph E. Aldy/OU=CEA/O=EOP [CEA])
CREATION DATE/TIME:29-JUN-1999 11:43:28.00
SUBJECT: Oil Dumping Case
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
CC: Quindi C. Franco ( CN=Quindi C. Franco/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
CC: Charles F. Stone (CN=Charles F. Stone/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
In case you have not heard, here is the latest. I have a follow-up call
in to Ron. Should we get together this afternoon to discuss this?
Forwarded by Joseph E. Aldy/CEA/EOP on 06/29/99
11:42 AM
Ronald Minsk
06/29/99 09:39:56 AM
Record Type: Record
To:
Gene B. Sperling/OPD/EOP@EOP, Lael Brainard/OPD/EOP@EOP,
Melissa G. Green/OPD/EOP@EOP, Sharon H. Yuan/OPD/EOP@EOP
cc: Ronald Minsk/OPD/EOP@EOP
Subject:
Oil Dumping Case
Secretary Richardson spoke to the head of Save Domestic Oil in Oklahoma
and asked him to delay filing the case. The individual, Harold Hamm, said
he was not sure if he had time to do so, as his lawyers may already be en
route. If he was able to do so, however, he would stop it for a day. He
then expressed a willingness to fly to Washington today and meet, perhaps
tonight, with Administration officials to discuss the case.
Lael, you and I should talk at your earliest convenience, and decide how
to plan for this.
I will keep all of you updated as I hear more information.
Ron
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Audrey Choi ( CN=Audrey Choi/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ UNKNOWN 1)
CREATION DATE/TIME:29-JUN-1999 18:20:55.00
SUBJECT: Re: Weds Deps
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
great... do you know, are we expecting any dour or heady suprises from
friday jobs report??
Robert Z. Lawrence
06/29/99 06:19:08 PM
Record Type: Record
To:
Audrey Choi/CEA/EOP@EOP
cc:
Subject:
Re: Weds Deps
On Thursday there is the leading indicators and NAPM Manufacturing
Resports, on Friday July 2nd we have the employment report.
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Lisa D. Branch ( CN=Lisa D. Branch/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA
CREATION DATE/TIME:29-JUN-1999 17:31:59.00
SUBJECT: Weds Deps
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Forwarded by Lisa D. Branch/CEA/EOP on 06/29/99
05:32 PM
LESLIE
BERNSTEIN
06/29/99 05:21:58 PM
Record Type: Record
To:
See the distribution list at the bottom of this message
cc:
Subject:
Weds Deps
There will be a Deputies Meeting at 5:30pm tomorrow in the Roosevelt Room.
See you then
Message Sent
To:
Sara M. Latham/WHO/EOP@EOP
Barry J. Toiv/WHO/EOP@EOP
Jennifer M. Palmieri/WHO/EOP@EOP
Anne F. Donovan/WHO/EOP@EOP
Linda Ricci/OMB/EOP@EOP
Sharon H. Yuan/OPD/EOP@EOP
Shannon Mason/OMB/EOP@EOP
Kris M Balderston/WHO/EOP@EOP
Tracey E. Thornton/WHO/EOP@EOP
Dario J. Gomez/WHO/EOP@EOP
Linda L. Moore/WHO/EOP@EOP
Dorian V. Weaver/WHO/EOP@EOP
Beverly J. Barnes/WHO/EOP@EOP
Christopher C. Jennings/OPD/EOP@EOP
John Dankowski/WHO/EOP@EOP
Susan L. Hazard/WHO/EOP@EOP
Lisa D. Branch/CEA/EOP@EOP
April B. Abdulmalik/OPD/EOP@EOP
Fred DuVal/WHO/EOP@EOP
Shirley S. Sagawa/WHO/EOP@EOP
Donna Dejban/NSC/EOP@EOP
Francine P. Obermiller/CEA/EOP@EOP
Cathy L. Millison/NSC/EOP@EOP
Glyn T. Davies/NSC/EOP@EOP
Jennifer M. Luray/WHO/EOP@EOP
Kelley L. O'Dell/WHO/EOP@EOP
Jeffrey M. Smith/OSTP/EOP@EOP
Sean P. Maloney/WHO/EOP@EOP
Todd A. Bledsoe/WHO/EOP@EOP
Janis F. Kearney/WHO/EOP@EOP
Cheryl D. Mills/WHO/EOP@EOP
Skye S. Philbrick/WHO/EOP@EOP
Patricia Solis-Doyle/WHO/EOP@EOP
Martha Foley/WHO/EOP@EOP
Douglas J. Band/WHO/EOP@EOP
Beth A. Viola/CEQ/EOP@EOP
Paul D. Glastris/WHO/EOP@EOP
Charles J. Payson/WHO/EOP@EOP
Anne Whitworth/WHO/EOP@EOP
June G. Turner/WHO/EOP@EOP
Devorah R. Adler/OPD/EOP@EOP
Richard L. Siewert/WHO/EOP@EOP
David R. Goodfriend/WHO/EOP@EOP
Adrienne C. Lavallee/WHO/EOP@EOP
Thomas D. Janenda/WHO/EOP@EOP
Erica R. Morris/WHO/EOP@EOP
Mary M. Chuckerel/OMB/EOP@EOP
Sylvia L. Parsons/WHO/EOP@EOP
Joshua Gotbaum/OMB/EOP@EOP
Courtney O. Gregoire/OPD/EOP@EOP
Laura Efurd/WHO/EOP@EOP
Mark F. Lindsay/WHO/EOP@EOP
Paul J. Weinstein Jr./OPD/EOP@EOP
David Vandivier/OMB/EOP@EOP
Michele Ballantyne/WHO/EOP@EOP
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
CREATION DATE/TIME:29-JUN-1999 18:33:17.00
SUBJECT: Re: Weds Deps
TO: Audrey Choi ( CN=Audrey Choi/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ UNKNOWN ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
The market expects little or no change at 4.2. Paroll growth at 200,000
which is normal.
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Jeffrey Lewis <[email protected]> Jeffrey Lewis <[email protected]> [
UNKNOWN 1)
CREATION DATE/TIME:29-JUN-1999 16:12:30.00
SUBJECT: Re: Reunion
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Orens,
It is I and not you who has screwed up the dates!
Rosh Hashana is on the weekend of the 1 1th and 12th September when Judelman
would want to be at home. So that being the case then the weekend of the
4th and 5th in the United States I think would be feasible for Judelman.
I,
too, could make that. I have heard from Goldblatt today who says that we
should go ahead and make an arrangement and he may or may not drop in at
the
last minute. However, his preference is Europe rather than the United
States. It may be possible for me to work on him, though.
I will contact Judelman and Goldblatt and get back to you. Have you any
ideas for venue in the United States?
As for early December, a weekend in Paris may not be too difficult for me
in
theory although I am due to start a long and probably difficult trial on
29th November which could mean very necessary weekend work and that
concerns
me more than slightly.
I shall be in touch soon.
Original Message
From: [email protected] <[email protected]>
To: [email protected] <[email protected]>
Date: 29 June 1999 13:10
Subject: Re: Reunion
>Jeff, I seem to have got my message screwed up. I have to be in Paris for
>meetings on the 13th and 14th of September. That means that I could make
>the weekend of the 11th in Paris but not the previous weekend. I thought
we
>were talking about the 4th and 5th of September in the US not Europe. I
>will also be going to Paris in early December, though the date is not yet
>firm. So how about the US ?
>
>
>
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Audrey Choi ( CN=Audrey Choi/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ UNKNOWN 1)
CREATION DATE/TIME:29-JUN-1999 17:46:27.00
SUBJECT: Re: Weds Deps
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP. [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Lisa D. Branch ( CN=Lisa D. Branch/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
that's fine. i'll cover the meeting. anything in particular we should
mention?
LISA D.
BRANCH
06/29/99 05:33:23 PM
Record Type: Record
To:
Audrey Choi/CEA/EOP@EOP
cc: Sandra F. Daigle/CEA/EOP@EOP, Alice H. Williams/CEA/EOP@EOP
Subject:
Weds Deps
Becky and Robert will not be able to attend this mtg.
Forwarded by Lisa D. Branch/CEA/EOP on 06/29/99
05:33 PM
LESLIE
BERNSTEIN
06/29/99 05:21:58 PM
Record Type: Record
To:
See the distribution list at the bottom of this message
cc:
Subject:
Weds Deps
There will be a Deputies Meeting at 5:30pm tomorrow in the Roosevelt Room.
See you then
Message Sent
To:
Sara M. Latham/WHO/EOP@EOP
Barry J. Toiv/WHO/EOP@EOP
Jennifer M. Palmieri/WHO/EOP@EOP
Anne F. Donovan/WHO/EOP@EOP
Linda Ricci/OMB/EOP@EOP
Sharon H. Yuan/OPD/EOP@EOP
Shannon Mason/OMB/EOP@EOP
Kris M Balderston/WHO/EOP@EOP
Tracey E. Thornton/WHO/EOP@EOP
Dario J. Gomez/WHO/EOP@EOP
Linda L. Moore/WHO/EOP@EOP
Dorian V. Weaver/WHO/EOP@EOP
Beverly J. Barnes/WHO/EOP@EOP
Christopher C. Jennings/OPD/EOP@EOP
John Dankowski/WHO/EOP@EOP
Susan L. Hazard/WHO/EOP@EOP
Lisa D. Branch/CEA/EOP@EOP
April B. Abdulmalik/OPD/EOP@EOP
Fred DuVal/WHO/EOP@EOP
Shirley S. Sagawa/WHO/EOP@EOP
Donna Dejban/NSC/EOP@EOP
Francine P. Obermiller/CEA/EOP@EOP
Cathy L. Millison/NSC/EOP@EOP
Glyn T. Davies/NSC/EOP@EOP
Jennifer M. Luray/WHO/EOP@EOP
Kelley L. O'Dell/WHO/EOP@EOP
Jeffrey M. Smith/OSTP/EOP@EOP
Sean P. Maloney/WHO/EOP@EOP
Todd A. Bledsoe/WHO/EOP@EOP
Janis F. Kearney/WHO/EOP@EOP
Cheryl D. Mills/WHO/EOP@EOP
Skye S. Philbrick/WHO/EOP@EOP
Patricia Solis-Doyle/WHO/EOP@EOP
Martha Foley/WHO/EOP@EOP
Douglas J. Band/WHO/EOP@EOP
Beth A. Viola/CEQ/EOP@EOP
Paul D. Glastris/WHO/EOP@EOP
Charles J. Payson/WHO/EOP@EOP
Anne Whitworth/WHO/EOP@EOP
June G. Turner/WHO/EOP@EOP
Devorah R. Adler/OPD/EOP@EOP
Richard L. Siewert/WHO/EOP@EOP
David R. Goodfriend/WHO/EOP@EOP
Adrienne C. Lavallee/WHO/EOP@EOP
Thomas D. Janenda/WHO/EOP@EOP
Erica R. Morris/WHO/EOP@EOP
Mary M. Chuckerel/OMB/EOP@EOP
Sylvia L. Parsons/WHO/EOP@EOP
Joshua Gotbaum/OMB/EOP@EOP
Courtney O. Gregoire/OPD/EOP@EOP
Laura Efurd/WHO/EOP@EOP
Mark F. Lindsay/WHO/EOP@EOP
Paul J. Weinstein Jr./OPD/EOP@EOP
David Vandivier/OMB/EOP@EOP
Michele Ballantyne/WHO/EOP@EOP
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Raymond P. Guiteras ( CN=Raymond P. Guiteras/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
CREATION DATE/TIME:29-JUN-1999 14:43:36.00
SUBJECT: IRUP pitches will be late tonight
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP[ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
CC: Charles F. Stone ( CN=Charles F. Stone/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Lisa D. Branch ( CN=Lisa D. Branch/OU=CEA/O=EOP [CEA])
CREATION DATE/TIME:29-JUN-1999 10:53:02.00
SUBJECT: Phone Message from Phil Verleger
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Contact: Phil VerlegerCompany: Phone: 978-287-5414FAX: Message: Re dumping petition on oil imports
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: [email protected] ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN ])
CREATION DATE/TIME:30-JUN-1999 10:24:33.00
SUBJECT: PREM Week: World Trade and Labor Markets (Information)
TO: Lisa D. Branch ( CN=Lisa D. Branch/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
CC: [email protected] ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
CC: [email protected] ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Dear Dr. Lawrence:
Further to my previous email, please find attached the directions to the
Inn and
Conference Center, University of Maryland University College and the
latest copy
of the program schedule.
(See attached file: univofmd.doc)
Directions
(See attached file: Program0624.doc) Program schedule
There will be overhead projectors in every room. However, due to equipment
constraints and compatibility issues, it is HIGHLY RECOMMEND that you
bring your
laptop if you intend to given an electronic presentation.
As discussed, we will reimburse you for your taxi fare. Please keep your
receipts and submit them to me at your convenience.
Please do not hesitate to call me if you have any questions. I can be
reached at
(202)473-3429 or by email at [email protected].
Looking forward to your participation at PREM Week.
Regards,
Vivian
Forwarded by Vivian Y.N. Hon/Person/World Bank on
06/28/99 05:12 PM
Vivian Y.N. Hon
06/25/99 04:45 PM
Extn: 33429
PRMEP
To: [email protected]
cc: Peter R. Fallon, Amit Dar, P. Zafiris Tzannatos, Sarah P. Lipscomb,
Katya
M. Gutierrez
Subject: PREM Week: World Trade and Labor Markets
Dear Prof. Lawrence:
I work with Peter Fallon. I am writing to inform you that there has been a
slight change in the schedule of our session for PREM Week. It is now
scheduled
for July 13 at 2:15-3:45 instead of 2:00-3:30. Other details to follow. In
the
meantime, if you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact me.
Sincerely,
Vivian Hon
Economist
Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM)- Economic Policy Unit
World Bank, Rm MC4-154
1818 H St. NW, Washington, DC 20433
Tel: (202)473-3429
Fax: (202)522-2530
Vivian Hon
Economist
Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM)- Economic Policy Unit
World Bank, Rm MC4-154
1818 H St. NW, Washington, DC 20433
Tel: (202)473-3429
Fax: (202)522-2530
- univofmd.doc - Program0624.doc
ATTACHMENT 1
ATT CREATION TIME/DATE: 0 00:00:00.00
TEXT:
Unable to convert ARMS_EXT:[ATTACH.D56]ARMS24544678G.136 to ASCII,
The following is a HEX DUMP:
END ATTACHMENT 2
THE INN AND CONFERENCE CENTER
UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND UNIVERSITY COLLEGE
Marriot Conference Centers
University Boulevard at Adelphi Road
College Park, Maryland 20742-1610
Phone: (301) 985-7300
Fax: (301) 985-7850
TOSALTAMORE
SAI
95
Airpor
Pit
THE INN AND
CONFERENCE
CENTER
Reckville
1
X
455
Colege
D.lks
Park
Greenbelt
1011.
Bethesda
Airprit
2E7
New Carroliton
WASHINGTON D.C
50
TOANSAPOL
Arlington
M
12
K
National
Airport
15
VIRGINIA
MARYLAND
Nexandria
DIRECTIONS:
FROM BALTIMORE:
1-95 South to Capital Beltway (1-495) to College Park
Take U.S. I South (Exit 25)
Proceed approximately I mile south on U.S. I
Turn right on- 193 West (University Blvd)
At 3rd traffic light (Adelphi Road) make "U" Turn
Automated Records Management System Hex-Dump Conversion
Turn right into parking garage
FROM ANNAPOLIS AND POINTS EAST:
Route 50 to Capital Beltway (1-495, 1-95) North to College Park
Take U.S. 1 South (Exit 25)
Proceed approximately I mile south on U.S. I
Turn right on 193 West (University Blvd)
At 3rd traffic light (Adelphi Road) make "U" Turn
Turn right into parking garage
FROM WASHINGTON D.C.
New Hampshire Avenue (650 North)
Right at light on 193 East (University Blvd)
At 6rd traffic light, cross Adelphi Road
Turn right into parking garage
FROM MONTGOMERY COUNTY AND POINTS WEST:
Capital Beltway (1-495)
Take New Hampshire Avenue/Takoma Park (650 South)
At 2nd light, make a left on Adelphi Road
At 3rd light, make a left on University Blvd
Turn right into parking garage
**Overnight guests must check in at the Front Desk before parking "The Building is marked: University
of Maryland University College
Automated Records Management System Hex-Dump Conversion
DRAFTO PROGRAM OUTLINE FOR PREM WEEK '99 (as of 6/24/99)
Monday, July 12
9:00 a.m. -4:30 p.m.
PREM Network Day for Field Staff
4:30-6:30 p.m.
PREM Reception
J. Wolfensohn
Tuesday, July 13
8:00 Registration & Coffee
9:15-10:15 a.m.
Opening Plenary
Introduced by M. Ahmed
J. Stiglitz on Development as Transformation
Coffee Break
10:45 a.m. 12:15 p.m.
Panel Session I'
Panel Session II ")
Panel Session III⁻¹
Comprehensive Development Framework
International Financial Architecture
From Poor Macroeconomic Policy to
Macroeconomic Policy for the Poor
Lunch
1:00-1:45
Lunchtime Keynote
Introduced by: ?
2:15-3:45 p.m.
Breakout & Open Fora° Sessions -- 1st Series
Gender, Growth, and Macro-performance
Gender and Globalization: Gender, Markets and States in a Globalizing World
Approaches to Measuring and Managing Contingent Government Liabilities
Crisis, Spillover Effects, and Poverty Impact
The World Bank and Poverty Reduction: Are we doing it Right?
Mainstreaming the Anti-Corruption Agenda: Progress and Problems to Date
Measuring Government Performance and Institutional Capacity: Can it be Done, and Why Should it be
PERS and Public Expenditure Reform Loans (PERLs): An Application of the Comprehensive Development Work
Market Yourself in Tomorrow's Bank
Revisiting the Lessons of Development
The Bank's Products and Impact: The View from Private Sector Bankers
Governing for Results: A Road Map for ROME (Results Oriented Management and Evaluation)
Financial management: A Multidisciplinary Perspective
World Trade and Labor Markets
Spreading the Live Data Base (LDB) to Bank Clients and New Approaches to LDB Dissemination
4:15-5:45 p.m.
Breakout and Open Fora° Sessions -- 2nd Series
Engendering budgets: Country and Institutional Perspectives
Engendering the Transition in ECA
Local Currency Debt: The Good, The Bad, and the Intermediary
Lending to Subnational Governments: Instruments and Lessons of Experience
Globalization, Inequality, and Exclusion
Poverty Monitoring using Subjective Assessments
Institutional Design and Poverty
Focusing on Public Sector Performance: Inputs, Outputs, and Outcomes
AIDS and Poverty: What does AIDS do to the Poor, and what is the Role of Public Policy?
Country Assistance Evaluation: Results-Based Assessment of Aid Effectiveness
From Input Controls to Accountability for Results: The CDF and the Role of the Public Sector Performance Review
Global Economics Prospects on the Road: Reactions From the Client
The Data Initiative: Building Analytical Capacity for Policy Research and Evaluation Techniques
ACS Session on SAP
0
Draft Program -- Subject to change
Automated Records Management System Hex-Dump Conversion
o
Open Forum Sessions are listed in Italics
Automated Records Management System Hex-Dump Conversion
DRAFTO PROGRAM OUTLINE FOR PREM WEEK '99
Wednesday, July 14
9:00-10:30 a.m.
Breakout and Open Fora° Sessions 3rd Series
Understanding the Gender Dimensions of Poverty
Making Mineral Wealth Pay
Poverty and Human Rights: Learning from the Poorest?
The Impact of Development Policies and Programs on Poverty Outcomes
What we need to know about the Social Principles and what it may mean for the design of Bank programs
Alternative CAS
Role of the Media and Parliaments in Controlling Corruption
New Empirical Diagnostic Tools for Anti-Corruption and Institutional Reform: A Step-by-Step Guide to their Implementation (this session
will continue in the 4th series until 12:30 p.m.)
Mainstreaming Gender in the Transport Sector: Findings from Pilot Interventions in Africa and South Asia
Local Currency Debt and Financial Infrastructure
Improving the Effectiveness of Bank Support for Poverty Reduction
Regional ACS Session
Coffee Break
11:00 a.m. -12:30 p.m.
Breakout and Open Fora° Sessions 4th Series
Gender Dimensions of Structural Adjustment
Are all Countries' Growth Prospects above Average? A Critical Look at Bank Growth Scenarios and Projection Methods - And where do
we go from here?
Policy Making in Dollarized Economies
Conflict and Poverty
Safety Nets, Risk Reduction and Redistribution
Decentralization and the Challenge of Hard Budget Constraints
Using Survey Research to Evaluate Institutional Performance: The Case of the Judiciary
Improving Access by the Poor to Infrastructure Services
Democracy and Development
Personal Effectiveness to meet the 21st Century
Give me death or give me tobacco taxes! (The economics of tobacco control)
Holding Governments Accountable: Practical Steps to Increase Accountability in Weak States
How Developing Countries can use Trade for Development: Making Use of the WTO and Promote Exports
Lunch
1:00-2:00 p.m.
Lunchtime Keynote
It's not Just Sex: Why Economists should be Interested in the Population Debate - A Balloon Debate on Population and Economic
Development
Introduced by: S. Sandstrom
2:00-3:30 p.m.
Breakout and Open Fora° Sessions 5th Series
Foreign Direct Investment
New Directions in the World Bank Modeling for Policy Analysis
Health Consequences of Income Inequality
Patterns of Growth, Poverty, and the Role of Public Policy
Practical Issues in Introduction of Government Financial Management Information
Systems in Developing Countries
National Institutional Reviews (NIRs): Informing Operational Planning through detailed
Diagnostics
2:00-4:00 p.m.
Linking Budgets, Poverty, and Gender: The Role of Independent Non-Governmental
Panel Session IV(*)
Organizations in Developing Countries
Aid Effectiveness
What should the Bank Think about the Washington Consensus?
Social Capital and Poverty
Gender and Economic Inequality: The Legal Connection (this session will continue in the
6th series until 5:30 p.m.)
Cost of Gender Violence (this session will continue in the 6th series until 5:30 p.m.)
Sustainability Monitoring: Linking Demand, Gender and Poverty in Water and Sanitation
Investments
Electronic Filing
Population change and economic performance in Africa
Population change and economic performance in Asia
Population change and economic performance in LAC
Automated Records Management System Hex-Dump Conversion
DRAFT PROGRAM OUTLINE FOR PREM WEEK '99
Wednesday, July 14
4:00-5:30 p.m.
Breakout and Open Fora° Sessions -- 6th Series
Resolving the Institutional Problems of Contingent Government Liabilities
Inequality and Growth: Moving Income to Assets
Unemployment and Poverty
The Key to Reducing Rural Poverty: Land Reform, Agricultural Growth or Rural Non-Farm Development
Risky Business: What should the Bank do to help the Vulnerable Manage Risk: The Social Protection Strategy Paper
Poverty and the Environment: Breaking the Links
The Institutional Dimension in Tax Reform
Visions of the Future and Competitive Advantage of Southeast Europe
Globalization, National Identity and the Emergence of a Global Ethic
Tools for Engendering Structural Adjustment
5:30-7:00 p.m.
Reception
Draft Program - Subject to change
Open Fora Sessions are listed in Italics
Types of Sessions:
BREAKOUT SESSIONS:
2 types: (1) selected by Sector Boards (SBs) and organized by SBs and/or (2) externally presented by other groups
who do not form part of PREM but have important sessions to contribute (e.g., WBI, ACS Network, OED) & centrally
selected sessions
(1) For Sector Board-sponsored sessions:
Focus on work/issues in PREM sectors (EP/GE/PO/PS) -- showcase work
Choice of session themes made by Sector Boards, drawing on sessions proposed by Thematic Groups
Formal presentations followed by time for Q&A
Can be varied in duration: 1-1½ hours, but could be combined for longer depending on topic and speakers
(2) For sponsored/selected sessions:
The PWOC decides on the themes
Responsibility for organization devolved to identified "sponsor"
OPEN FORA:
Can take a variety of formats
Small groups (in smaller rooms)
Encourage debate: Q&A with the "experts"
Formal presentations discouraged
"Clinics"
How-to-do-it format: hands on
Around 5 running concurrently
Automated Records Management System Hex-Dump Conversion
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
CREATION DATE/TIME:30-JUN-1999 13:40:51.00
SUBJECT: Oil Dumping Case.
TO: Joseph E. Aldy ( CN=Joseph E. Aldy/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
CC: Victoria A. Greenfield ( CN=Victoria A. Greenfield/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ UNKNOWN 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
I think it wpould be interesting to calculate what the impact on the
targetted countries cwould be if they had to pay the dumping charges. In
particular what it does to the budgets, trader balanbces of Mexico and
Venezula. Joe, if youre out, maybe Victoria could do this. We should also
get copies of the submissions from Ron Minsk.
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Lisa D. Branch ( CN=Lisa D. Branch/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
CREATION DATE/TIME:30-JUN-1999 12:20:13.00
SUBJECT: Phone Message from Bob Litan
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [CEA])
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Contact: Bob LitanCompany: Phone: H: 301-424-3722FAX: Message: Call before 3pm today.
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Joseph E. Aldy ( CN=Joseph E. Aldy/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
CREATION DATE/TIME:30-JUN-1999. 11:58:24.00
SUBJECT: The Janet Yellen Test
TO: ROBERT.CUMBY ( ROBERT.CUMBY @ DO.treas.gov [ UNKNOWN ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Quindi C. Franco ( CN=Quindi C. Franco/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Victoria A. Greenfield ( CN=Victoria A. Greenfield/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ UNKNOWN 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Audrey Choi ( CN=Audrey Choi/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ UNKNOWN ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Janet L. Yellen ( CN=Janet L. Yellen/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
For your information, Rep. McIntosh questions for the record sent to T.J.
Glauthier include the following question that uses the Administration's
economic analysis as the basis for evaluating CCTI cost-effectiveness.
Question 4: CEA Chair Janet Yellen estimates that the Kyoto
Protocol, if flexibly implemented, would cost the U.S. no more than $14 to
$23 for every ton of carbon reduced or avoided. We believe that Dr.
Yellen,s estimate provides a "performance goal" for evaluating the CCTI
programs and funding requests. Every major CCTI program element should
reduce carbon emissions for a cost less than $14 to $23 per ton.
Otherwise, some CCTI proposals or initiatives would be more expensive, on
a per ton basis, than the Kyoto Protocol itself. Such costly proposals or
initiatives would fail what we propose to call "Janet Yellen Test."
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Lisa D. Branch ( CN=Lisa D. Branch/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA])
CREATION DATE/TIME:30-JUN-1999 12:58:39.00
SUBJECT: Phone Message from Mike Philips
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP. [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Contact: Mike PhilipsCompany: Wall Str JournalPhone: 862-9262FAX: Message: Called to introduce himself.
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Lisa D. Branch (CN=Lisa D. Branch/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA])
CREATION DATE/TIME:30-JUN-1999 13:15:22.00
SUBJECT: Martin in Warsaw, 7/1-2
TO: Audrey Choi ( CN=Audrey Choi/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ UNKNOWN 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
CC: Sandra F. Daigle ( CN=Sandra F. Daigle/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
CC: Francine P. Obermiller ( CN=Francine P. Obermiller/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
CC: Alice H. Williams ( CN=Alice H. Williams/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Martin called in and said he is reachable via the following #s in Warsaw,
7/1-2. He will be back in DC Fri evening, 7/2.
McKinsey office: 48-22-820-5700
Sheraton Warsaw: 48-22-657-6100; fax 48-22-657-6200
(Time difference is 6 hrs)
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Lisa D. Branch ( CN=Lisa D. Branch/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
CREATION DATE/TIME:30-JUN-1999 14:55:31.00
SUBJECT: Phone Message from Katherine Shaw
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Contact: Katherine ShawCompany: @ her summer home in New HampshirePhone: 603-447-8913FAX: Message: She
is in and out.
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Robert Z. Lawrence ( (CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
CREATION DATE/TIME:30-JUN-1999 09:12:09.00
SUBJECT: Re: IRUP pitches
TO: Raymond P. Guiteras ( CN=Raymond P. Guiteras/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP CEA
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Raymond P. Guiteras
06/30/99 12:06:39 AM
Record Type: Record
To: Robert Z. Lawrence/CEA/EOP@EOP
cc:
Subject: IRUP pitches
your ideas:
Last week the OECD Employment Outlook came out. It has some interersting
studies on the relationship between labor market rigidities and
employment.
Also last Friday, the FT reported a study giving ranking of the 300
largest spenders on R&D. It showed how US firms have really been investing
very heavily in R&D recently and rank very highly in several sectors -- a
report on this could be interesting. 7.
Nouriel suggested we cover the Colombian devaluation6.
from monday's FT:
Less than a year after the Russian financial crisis threw global markets
into turmoil, emerging markets in
Asia are back in favour among investors, according to a survey of foreign
direct investment by multinational
companies published today. The US remained the most popular destination by
far, but prospects for
investment in Asia look increasingly healthy. (Study by AT Kearney)6
working papers:
Impacts of the Indonesian Economic Crisis: Price Changes and the
Poor
James Levinsohn, Steven Berry, Jed Friedman
NBER Working Paper No.
W7194
Issued in
June 1999
The recent financial crisis in Indonesia has resulted
in dramatic price increases. Using very recent data, we investigate
whether these price increases have impacted the
cost-of-living of poor households in a disproportionately harsh way. We
find that the poor have indeed been hit hardest. Just
how hard the poor have been hit, though, depends crucially on where
the household lives, whether the household is in a
rural or urban area, and just how the cost-of-living index is computed.
What is clear is that the notion that the very poor are
so poor as to be insulated from international shocks is simply wrong.
Rather, in the Indonesian case, the very poor appear
the most vulnerable. 6.
World Bank WP 2131. Deep Integration, Nondiscrimination, and
Euro-Mediterranean Free Trade
Bernard Hoekman and Denise Eby Konan (May 1999)
Preferential trade agreements that are limited to the elimination of
tariffs for merchandise trade flows are of limited value at best and may
be as
easily welfare-reducing as welfare-enhancing. It is important that
preferential trade agreements go beyond eliminating tariffs and quotas to
eliminating regulatory and red tape costs and opening up service markets
to foreign competition.
Using a standard competitive general equilibrium model of the Egyptian
economy, Hoekman and Konan find that the static welfare impact of a "deep"
free
trade agreement is far greater than the impact that can be expected from a
classic "shallow" agreement. Under some scenarios, welfare may increase by
more than 10 percent of GDP, compared with close to zero under a shallow
agreement.
Given Egypt's highly diversified trading patterns, a shallow PTA with the
European Union could be merely diversionary, leading to a small decline in
welfare.
Egypt already has duty-free access to the European Union for manufactures,
so the loss in tariff revenues incurred would outweigh any new trade
created.
Large gains in welfare from the PTA are conditional on eliminating
regulatory barriers and red tape* in which case welfare gains may be
substantial: 4 to 20
percent growth in real GNP.6.
some news items:
PARIS CLUB CRITICIZED FOR 'MEDDLING'. The Journal of Commerce (p.4)
reports
that the Institute of International Finance (IIF), an association of 300
international banks and investment firms active in emerging markets, warned
government creditors not to interfere with trade finance credits, as the
steering committee released its summary report on how to sustain flows of
private capital to emerging markets..
The institute criticized the Paris Club's handling of Pakistan's
debt-rescheduling talks and warned against extending the maturities of
short-term loans made to finance trade. The report criticized the Paris
Club
for its secrecy at a time when the IMF and other multilateral institutions
are
becoming more open about their operations.5
The World Bank has pitched in $14.5 million to help developing countries
deal
with the Y2K problem, the Wall Street Journal (p.B5E) reports, adding that
African countries have applied for most of the funds, followed by Eastern
Europe, the Middle East and Latin America.6
DUTCH MAY NOT BANKROLL G8 DEBT RELIEF SCHEME
The Netherlands, one of the world's top donors of development aid, said
yesterday it would not help bankroll debt relief pledges made at last
weekend's
G8 summit without further consultation, reports Reuters. Junior Foreign
Minister Evelien Herfkens on Tuesday hit out at the G8 as a "self-appointed
body" taking decisions on others' behalf without prior consultation, the
story
says. "The G8 [summit in Cologne] has trailed a string of initiatives for
which
Dutch financing is essential," Herfkens is quoted as saying to
Parliament. "But
in spite of that we were not involved in the decision-making process. I
have
since made plain that the Netherlands will no longer finance decisions in
which
I have not been involved."7
FRANCE CALLS FOR BAN ON OFFSHORE TAX HAVENS. Speaking at the closing
ceremonies
of the first annual World Bank conference on development economics in
Europe,
French Finance Minister Dominique Strauss-Kahn yesterday drew a direct line
between the existence of fiscal paradises and the difficulties faced by
developing countries, reports Les Echos (p.8). Estimating that since
1997, the
Asian financial crisis has cost a quarter of GDP in cumulative productivity
losses in South Korean and Malaysia, and more than half of GDP for
Thailand and
Indonesia, Strauss-Kahn said policymakers of fiscal paradises such as
Antigua
and Barbuda should not believe their development can be "based on the open
wounds of the rest of the world".
Describing such territories as "black holes" of international financial
regulation, Strauss-Kahn called for a ban on financial transactions with
such
territories-a largely hypothetical threat, says the story, but one that
could
take concrete form in the context of a multilateral effort. Le Figaro
(p.36)
also reports.7
African nations encounter difficulties with International Financial
Institutions
ZIMBABWE PRICE CONTROLS THREATEN IMF, WORLD BANK SUPPORT. Prospects for the
release of a $50 million tranche under a fresh $200 million 13-month credit
facility from the IMF receded this week as Zimbabwe's Ministry of Industry
and
Commerce went ahead with the gazetting of the price of maize-meal and
threatened
to take similar measures to control the price of bread, reports the
Zimbabwe
Independent. But Ministry of Finance officials said they would work hard
to
stop the gazetting of bread prices as this could sabotage support from the
Bretton Woods financier. (plus)6
WORLD BANK SUSPENDS AID TO CONGO. The World Bank has cut off the flow of
aid to
Congo with $915,000 dollars in the pipeline, AFP reports the Bank said in a
statement yesterday. "The balance of this grant is suspended pending the
restoration of the necessary security and working conditions," the
Brazzaville
office managing the funds said in a communiqu?.6
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Quindi C. Franco (CN=Quindi C. Franco/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ]
CREATION DATE/TIME:30-JUN-1999 14:59:22.00
SUBJECT: Draft of next letter to EPA's SAB
TO: Rebecca M. Blank ( CN=Rebecca M. Blank/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Joseph E. Aldy ( CN=Joseph E. Aldy/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
CC: Audrey Choi ( CN=Audrey Choi/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ UNKNOWN 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Our previous joint OMB/CEA letter to a subcommittee of EPA's Science
Advisory Board was partly succesfull. The subcomittee met on Tuesday, and
recommended that EPA incorporate a lag-structure in its "Best" estimate.
However, they declined to offer any guidance as to plausible assumptions
to use for the "high" or "low" end estimates.
The full SAB committee will meet July 13-14. I have placed copies of
EPA's charge letter to the SAB and of a current draft of a letter
outlining further concerns with their benefits estimates in your boxes.
We are aiming to get this out by the end of the week (I assume that,
barring a quick confirmation in the next few days, we'd be looking for
Becky to sign this one as well). Let us know if you have any
comments/changes to the letter or if you'd like to meet to discuss.
Q
Withdrawal/Redaction Marker
Clinton Library
DOCUMENT NO.
SUBJECT/TITLE
DATE
RESTRICTION
AND TYPE
001. email
SSN [partial] (1 page)
06/30/1999
P6/b(6)
COLLECTION:
Clinton Presidential Records
Automated Records Management System
CEA (Robert Z. Lawrence)
OA/Box Number: 950000
FOLDER TITLE:
[06/29/1999 - 07/08/1999]
2014-0316-F
wr10748
RESTRICTION CODES
Presidential Records Act - [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)]
Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)]
PI National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRAJ
b(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA]
P2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA]
b(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of
P3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA]
an agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA]
P4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or
b(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA|
financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA]
b(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial
P5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President
information |(b)(4) of the FOIA]
and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA|
b(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
P6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
personal privacy |(b)(6) of the FOIA]
personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA
b(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement
purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA]
C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed
b(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of
of gift.
financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA|
PRM. Personal record misfile defined in accordance with 44 U.S.C.
b(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information
2201(3).
concerning wells |(b)(9) of the FOIA]
RR. Document will be reviewed upon request.
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: [email protected] ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN ])
CREATION DATE/TIME:30-JUN-1999 23:09:19.00
SUBJECT: Social security numbers
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: [email protected] ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN )
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
[email protected]
07/01/99 01:32 AM GMT
To:
Robert Lawrence/FS/KSG@KSG, [email protected]
cc:
Nicole said you needed our SSNs for this weekend's festivities. Here they
are
(001)
David Post
P6/(b)(6)
Nancy Birdsall
P6/(b)(6)
Sam Post
P6/(b)(6);
[alas, no Sarah this weekend
]
David
****
David Post -- Temple Univ. School of Law
202-364-5010 (summer '99) [email protected]
http://www.temple.edu/lawschool/dpost.html
See http://www.icannwatch.org
****
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Lisa D. Branch ( CN=Lisa D. Branch/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA])
CREATION DATE/TIME:30-JUN-1999 14:57:05.00
SUBJECT: Phone Message from Nicolas Vernicos
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [CEA])
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Contact: Nicolas VernicosCompany: Phone: FAX: Message: Reminder: Call him on his cell phone upon your arrival
in Athens tomorrow p.m. (7/1). He is definitely able to get together tomorrow; he's leaving town on Fri, 7/2, for the
weekend.
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: [email protected] ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN 1)
CREATION DATE/TIME:30-JUN-1999 10:22:53.00
SUBJECT: PREM Week: World Trade and Labor Markets (Information)
TO: Lisa D. Branch ( CN=Lisa D. Branch/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
CC: [email protected] ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
CC: [email protected] ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Dear Dr. Lawrence:
Further to my previous email, please find attached the directions to the
Inn and
Conference Center, University of Maryland University College and the
latest copy
of the program schedule.
(See attached file: univofmd.doc)
Directions
(See attached file: Program0624.doc) Program schedule
There will be overhead projectors in every room. However, due to equipment
constraints and compatibility issues, it is HIGHLY RECOMMEND that you
bring your
laptop if you intend to given an electronic presentation.
As discussed, we will reimburse you for your taxi fare. Please keep your
receipts and submit them to me at your convenience.
Please do not hesitate to call me if you have any questions. I can be
reached at
(202)473-3429 or by email at [email protected].
Looking forward to your participation at PREM Week.
Regards,
Vivian
Forwarded by Vivian Y.N. Hon/Person/World Bank on
06/28/99 05:12 PM
Vivian Y.N. Hon
06/25/99 04:45 PM
Extn: 33429
PRMEP
To: [email protected]
cc: Peter R. Fallon, Amit Dar, P. Zafiris Tzannatos, Sarah P. Lipscomb,
Katya
M. Gutierrez
Subject: PREM Week: World Trade and Labor Markets
Dear Prof. Lawrence:
I work with Peter Fallon. I am writing to inform you that there has been a
slight change in the schedule of our session for PREM Week. It is now
scheduled
for July 13 at 2:15-3:45 instead of 2:00-3:30. Other details to follow. In
the
meantime, if you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact me.
Sincerely,
Vivian Hon
Economist
Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM)- Economic Policy Unit
World Bank, Rm MC4-154
1818 H St. NW, Washington, DC 20433
Tel: (202)473-3429
Fax: (202)522-2530
Vivian Hon
Economist
Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM)- Economic Policy Unit
World Bank, Rm MC4-154
1818 H St. NW, Washington, DC 20433
Tel: (202)473-3429
Fax: (202)522-2530
- univofmd.doc - Program0624.doc
ATTACHMENT 1
ATT CREATION TIME/DATE: 0 00:00:00.00
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THE INN AND CONFERENCE CENTER
UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND UNIVERSITY COLLEGE
Marriot Conference Centers
University Boulevard at Adelphi Road
College Park, Maryland 20742-1610
Phone: (301) 985-7300
Fax: (301) 985-7850
TOSALTAMORE
BAT
95
Artor
Mill
THE INN AND
K
CONFERENCE
CENTER
Reckville
1
X
455
Colege
Dates
Park
Greenbelt
Init.
Bethesds
Airport
287
New Carroliton
WASHINGTON D.C
50
TO ANNAPOLI
Arlington
M
IS
K
National
8
Airport
$5
VIRGINIA
MARYLAND
Alexandria
DIRECTIONS:
FROM BALTIMORE:
1-95 South to Capital Beltway (1-495) to College Park
Take U.S. I South (Exit 25)
Proceed approximately I mile south on U.S. I
Turn right on- 193 West (University Blvd)
At 3rd traffic light (Adelphi Road) make "U" Turn
Automated Records Management System Hex-Dump Conversion
Turn right into parking garage
FROM ANNAPOLIS AND POINTS EAST:
Route 50 to Capital Beltway (1-495, 1-95) North to College Park
Take U.S. 1 South (Exit 25)
Proceed approximately I mile south on U.S. I
Turn right on 193 West (University Blvd)
At 3rd traffic light (Adelphi Road) make "U" Turn
Turn right into parking garage
FROM WASHINGTON D.C.
New Hampshire Avenue (650 North)
Right at light on 193 East (University Blvd)
At 6rd traffic light, cross Adelphi Road
Turn right into parking garage
FROM MONTGOMERY COUNTY AND POINTS WEST:
Capital Beltway (1-495)
Take New Hampshire Avenue/Takoma Park (650 South)
At 2nd light, make a left on Adelphi Road
At 3rd light, make a left on University Blvd
Turn right into parking garage
**Overnight guests must check in at the Front Desk before parking "The Building is marked: University
of Maryland University College
Automated Records Management System Hex-Dump Conversion
DRAFTO PROGRAM OUTLINE FOR PREM WEEK '99 (as of 6/24/99)
Monday, July 12
9:00 a.m. -4:30 p.m.
PREM Network Day for Field Staff
4:30-6:30 p.m.
PREM Reception
J. Wolfensohn
Tuesday, July 13
8:00 Registration & Coffee
9:15-10:15 a.m.
Opening Plenary
Introduced by M. Ahmed
J. Stiglitz on Development as Transformation
Coffee Break
10:45 a.m.-12:15 p.m.
Panel Session I'
Panel Session II(")
Panel Session III
Comprehensive Development Framework
International Financial Architecture
From Poor Macroeconomic Policy to
Macroeconomic Policy for the Poor
Lunch
1:00-1:45
Lunchtime Keynote
Introduced by: ?
2:15-3:45 p.m.
Breakout & Open Fora° Sessions 1st Series
Gender, Growth, and Macro-performance
Gender and Globalization: Gender, Markets and States in a Globalizing World
Approaches to Measuring and Managing Contingent Government Liabilities
Crisis, Spillover Effects, and Poverty Impact
The World Bank and Poverty Reduction: Are we doing it Right?
Mainstreaming the Anti-Corruption Agenda: Progress and Problems to Date
Measuring Government Performance and Institutional Capacity: Can it be Done, and Why Should it be
PERS and Public Expenditure Reform Loans (PERLs): An Application of the Comprehensive Development Work
Market Yourself in Tomorrow's Bank
Revisiting the Lessons of Development
The Bank's Products and Impact: The View from Private Sector Bankers
Governing for Results: A Road Map for ROME (Results Oriented Management and Evaluation)
Financial management: A Multidisciplinary Perspective
World Trade and Labor Markets
Spreading the Live Data Base (LDB) to Bank Clients and New Approaches to LDB Dissemination
4:15-5:45 p.m.
Breakout and Open Fora° Sessions - -- 2nd Series
Engendering budgets: Country and Institutional Perspectives
Engendering the Transition in ECA
Local Currency Debt: The Good, The Bad, and the Intermediary
Lending to Subnational Governments: Instruments and Lessons of Experience
Globalization, Inequality, and Exclusion
Poverty Monitoring using Subjective Assessments
Institutional Design and Poverty
Focusing on Public Sector Performance: Inputs, Outputs, and Outcomes
AIDS and Poverty: What does AIDS do to the Poor, and what is the Role of Public Policy?
Country Assistance Evaluation: Results-Based Assessment of Aid Effectiveness
From Input Controls to Accountability for Results: The CDF and the Role of the Public Sector Performance Review
Global Economics Prospects on the Road: Reactions From the Client
The Data Initiative: Building Analytical Capacity for Policy Research and Evaluation Techniques
ACS Session on SAP
Draft Program -- Subject to change
Automated Records Management System Hex-Dump Conversion
Open Forum Sessions are listed in Italics
Automated Records Management System Hex-Dump Conversion
DRAFT PROGRAM OUTLINE FOR PREM WEEK '99
Wednesday, July 14
9:00-10:30 a.m.
Breakout and Open Fora¹ Sessions -- 3rd Series
Understanding the Gender Dimensions of Poverty
Making Mineral Wealth Pay
Poverty and Human Rights: Learning from the Poorest?
The Impact of Development Policies and Programs on Poverty Outcomes
What we need to know about the Social Principles and what it may mean for the design of Bank programs
Alternative CAS
Role of the Media and Parliaments in Controlling Corruption
New Empirical Diagnostic Tools for Anti-Corruption and Institutional Reform: A Step-by-Step Guide to their Implementation (this session
will continue in the 4th series until 12:30 p.m.)
Mainstreaming Gender in the Transport Sector: Findings from Pilot Interventions in Africa and South Asia
Local Currency Debt and Financial Infrastructure
Improving the Effectiveness of Bank Support for Poverty Reduction
Regional ACS Session
Coffee Break
11:00 a.m.-12:30 p.m.
Breakout and Open Fora° Sessions 4th Series
Gender Dimensions of Structural Adjustment
Are all Countries' Growth Prospects above Average? A Critical Look at Bank Growth Scenarios and Projection Methods - And where do
we go from here?
Policy Making in Dollarized Economies
Conflict and Poverty
Safety Nets, Risk Reduction and Redistribution
Decentralization and the Challenge of Hard Budget Constraints
Using Survey Research to Evaluate Institutional Performance: The Case of the Judiciary
Improving Access by the Poor to Infrastructure Services
Democracy and Development
Personal Effectiveness to meet the 21st Century
Give me death or give me tobacco taxes! (The economics of tobacco control)
Holding Governments Accountable: Practical Steps to Increase Accountability in Weak States
How Developing Countries can use Trade for Development: Making Use of the WTO and Promote Exports
Lunch
1:00-2:00 p.m.
Lunchtime Keynote
It's not Just Sex: Why Economists should be Interested in the Population Debate - A Balloon Debate on Population and Economic
Development
Introduced by: S. Sandstrom
2:00-3:30 p.m.
Breakout and Open Fora° Sessions 5th Series
Foreign Direct Investment
New Directions in the World Bank Modeling for Policy Analysis
Health Consequences of Income Inequality
Patterns of Growth, Poverty, and the Role of Public Policy
Practical Issues in Introduction of Government Financial Management Information
Systems in Developing Countries
National Institutional Reviews (NIRs): Informing Operational Planning through detailed
Diagnostics
2:00-4:00 p.m.
Linking Budgets, Poverty, and Gender: The Role of Independent Non-Governmental
Panel Session IV(*)
Organizations in Developing Countries
Aid Effectiveness
What should the Bank Think about the Washington Consensus?
Social Capital and Poverty
Gender and Economic Inequality: The Legal Connection (this session will continue in the
6th series until 5:30 p.m.)
Cost of Gender Violence (this session will continue in the 6th series until 5:30 p.m.)
Sustainability Monitoring: Linking Demand, Gender and Poverty in Water and Sanitation
Investments
Electronic Filing
Population change and economic performance in Africa
Population change and economic performance in Asia
Population change and economic performance in LAC
Automated Records Management System Hex-Dump Conversion
DRAFT PROGRAM OUTLINE FOR PREM WEEK '99
Wednesday, July 14
4:00-5:30 p.m.
Breakout and Open Fora° Sessions -- 6th Series
Resolving the Institutional Problems of Contingent Government Liabilities
Inequality and Growth: Moving Income to Assets
Unemployment and Poverty
The Key to Reducing Rural Poverty: Land Reform, Agricultural Growth or Rural Non-Farm Development
Risky Business: What should the Bank do to help the Vulnerable Manage Risk: The Social Protection Strategy Paper
Poverty and the Environment: Breaking the Links
The Institutional Dimension in Tax Reform
Visions of the Future and Competitive Advantage of Southeast Europe
Globalization, National Identity and the Emergence of a Global Ethic
Tools for Engendering Structural Adjustment
5:30-7:00 p.m.
Reception
0 Draft Program - Subject to change
Open Fora Sessions are listed in Italics
Types of Sessions:
BREAKOUT SESSIONS:
2 types: (1) selected by Sector Boards (SBs) and organized by SBs and/or (2) externally presented by other groups
who do not form part of PREM but have important sessions to contribute (e.g., WBI, ACS Network, OED) & centrally
selected sessions
(1) For Sector Board-sponsored sessions:
Focus on work/issues in PREM sectors (EP/GE/PO/PS) -- showcase work
Choice of session themes made by Sector Boards, drawing on sessions proposed by Thematic Groups
Formal presentations followed by time for Q&A
Can be varied in duration: 1-1½ hours, but could be combined for longer depending on topic and speakers
(2) For sponsored/selected sessions:
The PWOC decides on the themes
Responsibility for organization devolved to identified "sponsor"
OPEN FORA:
Can take a variety of formats
Small groups (in smaller rooms)
Encourage debate: Q&A with the "experts"
Formal presentations discouraged
"Clinics"
How-to-do-it format: hands on
Around 5 running concurrently
Automated Records Management System Hex-Dump Conversion
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
CREATION DATE/TIME:30-JUN-1999 10:47:26.00
SUBJECT: Please Call
TO: [email protected] ( [email protected] @ inet [ WHO 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
I would like to speak to you as soon as possible. Could you please call me
at 202-395-5046. Robert Lawrence, Council of Economic Advisers.
Withdrawal/Redaction Marker
Clinton Library
DOCUMENT NO.
SUBJECT/TITLE
DATE
RESTRICTION
AND TYPE
002. email
SSN [partial] (1 page)
06/30/1999
P6/b(6)
COLLECTION:
Clinton Presidential Records
Automated Records Management System
CEA (Robert Z. Lawrence)
OA/Box Number: 950000
FOLDER TITLE:
[06/29/1999 - 07/08/1999]
2014-0316-F
wr10748
RESTRICTION CODES
Presidential Records Act [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)]
Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)]
P1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA]
b(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA]
P2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRAJ
b(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of
P3 Release would violate a Federal statute |(a)(3) of the PRA]
an agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA]
P4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or
b(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA]
financial information [(a)(4) of the PRAJ
b(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial
P5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President
information [(b)(4) of the FOIA]
and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA]
b(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
P6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA]
personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA|
b(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement
purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA]
C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed
b(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of
of gift.
financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA]
PRM. Personal record misfile defined in accordance with 44 U.S.C.
b(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information
2201(3).
concerning wells |(b)(9) of the FOIA]
RR. Document will be reviewed upon request.
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: David Post <[email protected]> ( David Post <[email protected]> [ UNKNOWN ])
CREATION DATE/TIME:30-JUN-1999 23:09:17.00
SUBJECT: Social security numbers
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: [email protected] ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Nicole said you needed our SSNs for this weekend's festivities. Here they
are
David Post
P6/(b)(6)
Nancy Birdsal
P6/(b)(6)
[002]
Sam Post
P6/(b)(6)
[alas, no Sarah this weekend
]
David
****
David Post -- Temple Univ. School of Law
202-364-5010 (summer '99) [email protected]
http://www.temple.edu/lawschool/dpost.html
See http://www.icannwatch.org
****
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
CREATION DATE/TIME:30-JUN-1999 10:48:48.00
SUBJECT: Please Call
TO: [email protected] ([email protected] @ inet [ UNKNOWN ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
I would like to speak to you as soon as possible. Could you please call me
at 202-395-5046. Robert Lawrence, Council of Economic Advisers.
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Raymond P. Guiteras ( CN=Raymond P. Guiteras/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA
CREATION DATE/TIME:30-JUN-1999 00:05:49.00
SUBJECT: IRUP pitches
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP CEA
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
your ideas:
Last week the OECD Employment Outlook came out. It has some interersting
studies on the relationship between labor market rigidities and
employment.
Also last Friday, the FT reported a study giving ranking of the 300
largest spenders on R&D. It showed how US firms have really been investing
very heavily in R&D recently and rank very highly in several sectors -- a
report on this could be interesting.
Nouriel suggested we cover the Colombian devaluation
from monday's FT:
Less than a year after the Russian financial crisis threw global markets
into turmoil, emerging markets in
Asia are back in favour among investors, according to a survey of foreign
direct investment by multinational
companies published today. The US remained the most popular destination by
far, but prospects for
investment in Asia look increasingly healthy. (Study by AT Kearney)
working papers:
Impacts of the Indonesian Economic Crisis: Price Changes and the
Poor
James Levinsohn, Steven Berry, Jed Friedman
NBER Working Paper No.
W7194
Issued in
June 1999
The recent financial crisis in Indonesia has resulted
in dramatic price increases. Using very recent data, we investigate
whether these price increases have impacted the
cost-of-living of poor households in a disproportionately harsh way. We
find that the poor have indeed been hit hardest. Just
how hard the poor have been hit, though, depends crucially on where
the household lives, whether the household is in a
rural or urban area, and just how the cost-of-living index is computed.
What is clear is that the notion that the very poor are
so poor as to be insulated from international shocks is simply wrong.
Rather, in the Indonesian case, the very poor appear
the most vulnerable.
World Bank WP 2131. Deep Integration, Nondiscrimination, and
Euro-Mediterranean Free Trade
Bernard Hoekman and Denise Eby Konan (May 1999)
Preferential trade agreements that are limited to the elimination of
tariffs for merchandise trade flows are of limited value at best and may
be as
easily welfare-reducing as welfare-enhancing. It is important that
preferential trade agreements go beyond eliminating tariffs and quotas to
eliminating regulatory and red tape costs and opening up service markets
to foreign competition.
Using a standard competitive general equilibrium model of the Egyptian
economy, Hoekman and Konan find that the static welfare impact of a "deep"
free
trade agreement is far greater than the impact that can be expected from a
classic "shallow" agreement. Under some scenarios, welfare may increase by
more than 10 percent of GDP, compared with close to zero under a shallow
agreement.
Given Egypt's highly diversified trading patterns, a shallow PTA with the
European Union could be merely diversionary, leading to a small decline in
welfare.
Egypt already has duty-free access to the European Union for manufactures,
so the loss in tariff revenues incurred would outweigh any new trade
created.
Large gains in welfare from the PTA are conditional on eliminating
regulatory barriers and red tape*in which case welfare gains may be
substantial: 4 to 20
percent growth in real GNP.
some news items:
PARIS CLUB CRITICIZED FOR 'MEDDLING'. The Journal of Commerce (p.4)
reports
that the Institute of International Finance (IIF), an association of 300
international banks and investment firms active in emerging markets, warned
government creditors not to interfere with trade finance credits, as the
steering committee released its summary report on how to sustain flows of
private capital to emerging markets..
The institute criticized the Paris Club's handling of Pakistan's
debt-rescheduling talks and warned against extending the maturities of
short-term loans made to finance trade. The report criticized the Paris
Club
for its secrecy at a time when the IMF and other multilateral institutions
are
becoming more open about their operations.
The World Bank has pitched in $14.5 million to help developing countries
deal
with the Y2K problem, the Wall Street Journal (p.B5E) reports, adding that
African countries have applied for most of the funds, followed by Eastern
Europe, the Middle East and Latin America.
DUTCH MAY NOT BANKROLL G8 DEBT RELIEF SCHEME
The Netherlands, one of the world's top donors of development aid, said
yesterday it would not help bankroll debt relief pledges made at last
weekend's
G8 summit without further consultation, reports Reuters. Junior Foreign
Minister Evelien Herfkens on Tuesday hit out at the G8 as a "self-appointed
body" taking decisions on others' behalf without prior consultation, the
story
says. "The G8 [summit in Cologne] has trailed a string of initiatives for
which
Dutch financing is essential," Herfkens is quoted as saying to
Parliament. "But
in spite of that we were not involved in the decision-making process. I
have
since made plain that the Netherlands will no longer finance decisions in
which
I have not been involved."
FRANCE CALLS FOR BAN ON OFFSHORE TAX HAVENS. Speaking at the closing
ceremonies
of the first annual World Bank conference on development economics in
Europe,
French Finance Minister Dominique Strauss-Kahn yesterday drew a direct line
between the existence of fiscal paradises and the difficulties faced by
developing countries, reports Les Echos (p.8). Estimating that since
1997, the
Asian financial crisis has cost a quarter of GDP in cumulative productivity
losses in South Korean and Malaysia, and more than half of GDP for
Thailand and
Indonesia, Strauss-Kahn said policymakers of fiscal paradises such as
Antigua
and Barbuda should not believe their development can be "based on the open
wounds of the rest of the world".
Describing such territories as "black holes" of international financial
regulation, Strauss-Kahn called for a ban on financial transactions with
such
territories-a largely hypothetical threat, says the story, but one that
could
take concrete form in the context of a multilateral effort. Le Figaro
(p.36)
also reports.
African nations encounter difficulties with International Financial
Institutions
ZIMBABWE PRICE CONTROLS THREATEN IMF, WORLD BANK SUPPORT. Prospects for the
release of a $50 million tranche under a fresh $200 million 13-month credit
facility from the IMF receded this week as Zimbabwe's Ministry of Industry
and
Commerce went ahead with the gazetting of the price of maize-meal and
threatened
to take similar measures to control the price of bread, reports the
Zimbabwe
Independent. But Ministry of Finance officials said they would work hard
to
stop the gazetting of bread prices as this could sabotage support from the
Bretton Woods financier. (plus)
WORLD BANK SUSPENDS AID TO CONGO. The World Bank has cut off the flow of
aid to
Congo with $915,000 dollars in the pipeline, AFP reports the Bank said in a
statement yesterday. "The balance of this grant is suspended pending the
restoration of the necessary security and working conditions," the
Brazzaville
office managing the funds said in a communiqu?.
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Lisa D. Branch ( CN=Lisa D. Branch/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
CREATION DATE/TIME: 1-JUL-1999 09:56:51.00
SUBJECT: Talk bef Frederick Naumann Conference
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
CC: Francine P. Obermiller ( CN=Francine P. Obermiller/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
The conference organizer, Ms. Heike Nyland, called to inform you that they
have lost their keynote speaker for their dinner next Wed, 7/7, and now
ask that you reconsider giving the talk. Background: you were their first
choice, then the organizers bump you for someone else, and now they're
asking you again.
Ms. Nyland ask that you respond immediately. Presently, you're scheduled
to participate in Session 1, "Risks & Benefits of Open Trade", on Thurs,
7/8, fm 9-10:30am.
FRANCINE: As soon as Robert gives you an answer, please call Ms. Nyland
at 293-0954.
Withdrawal/Redaction Marker
Clinton Library
DOCUMENT NO.
SUBJECT/TITLE
DATE
RESTRICTION
AND TYPE
003. email
SSN & Passport No. [partial] (1 page)
07/01/1999 P6/b(6)
COLLECTION:
Clinton Presidential Records
Automated Records Management System
CEA (Robert Z. Lawrence)
OA/Box Number: 950000
FOLDER TITLE:
[06/29/1999 07/08/1999]
2014-0316-F
wr10748
RESTRICTION CODES
Presidential Records Act - [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)]
Freedom of Information Act - 15 U.S.C. 552(b)]
P1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA}
b(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA]
P2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRAJ
b(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of
P3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRAJ
an agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA]
P4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or
b(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA]
financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA]
b(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial
P5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President
information [(b)(4) of the FOIA]
and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA]
b(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
P6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA]
personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA]
b(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement
purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA]
C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed
b(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of
of gift.
financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA]
PRM. Personal record misfile defined in accordance with 44 U.S.C.
b(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information
2201(3).
concerning wells [(b)(9) of the FOIA]
RR. Document will be reviewed upon request.
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: [email protected] ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN 1)
CREATION DATE/TIME: 1-JUL-1999 10:05:50.00
SUBJECT: Passport #'s etc for July 4 weekend
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Ms. Lisa,
Robert has asked me to send you the following details for the people who
might be coming to his office on July 4th:
Anand Bhasin SS #:
Ranjana Bhasin SS#
P6/(b)(6)
Suparna Bhasin SS#
Ravinder Kaur
Indian Passport #
Simran Bhalla
Indian Passport #
P6/(b)(6)
Sahil Bhalla
US Passport #
Thank you.
Surjit S. Bhalla
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Francine P. Obermiller ( CN=Francine P. Obermiller/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
CREATION DATE/TIME: 2-JUL-1999 08:37:55.00
SUBJECT: Money
TO: Yu-Chin Chen (CN=Yu-Chin Chen/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: William H. Gillespie ( CN=William H. Gillespie/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Victoria A. Greenfield ( CN=Victoria A. Greenfield/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Susan P. Clements ( CN=Susan P. Clements/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Steven N. Braun ( CN=Steven N. Braun/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Stephen F. Lin ( CN=Stephen F. Lin/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Sarah L. Rosen ( CN=Sarah L. Rosen/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Sandra F. Daigle ( CN=Sandra F. Daigle/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Ryan D. Edwards ( CN=Ryan D. Edwards/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Rosalind V. Rasin ( CN=Rosalind V. Rasin/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Robin L. Lumsdaine ( CN=Robin L. Lumsdaine/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Rebecca M. Blank ( CN=Rebecca M. Blank/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Raymond P. Guiteras ( CN=Raymond P. Guiteras/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Quindi C. Franco ( CN=Quindi C. Franco/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Paul K. Hoffmeister ( CN=Paul K. Hoffmeister/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Nouriel Roubini ( CN=Nouriel Roubini/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Noah Y. Weisberger ( CN=Noah Y. Weisberger/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Michele Jolin ( CN=Michele Jolin/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Michael S. Kosoff ( CN=Michael S. Kosoff/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Michael J. Brien ( CN=Michael J. Brien/OU=CEA/O=EOP [CEA])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Mary Fibich ( CN=Mary Fibich/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Mary E. Jones ( CN=Mary E. Jones/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Mary A. Thomas ( CN=Mary A. Thomas/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Mark N. Levine ( CN=Mark N. Levine/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Lisa D. Branch ( CN=Lisa D. Branch/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Linda A. Reilly ( CN=Linda A. Reilly/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Leigh L. Linden ( CN=Leigh L. Linden/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
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TO: Joseph E. Aldy ( CN=Joseph E. Aldy/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
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TO: John C. Williams ( CN=John C. Williams/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
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TO: Janet L. Yellen ( CN=Janet L. Yellen/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
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TO: Jacob M. Studley ( CN=Jacob M. Studley/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ] )
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TO: Howard A. Shelanski ( CN=Howard A. Shelanski/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
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TO: Francine P. Obermiller ( CN=Francine P. Obermiller/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
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TO: Elise H. Golan ( CN=Elise H. Golan/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ] )
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TO: Douglas W. Elmendorf ( CN=Douglas W. Elmendorf/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ] )
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TO: Douglas V. Almond ( CN=Douglas V. Almond/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
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TO: Cordelia W. Reimers ( CN=Cordelia W. Reimers/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
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TO: Christel M. Sice ( CN=Christel M. Sice/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
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TO: Charles F. Stone ( CN=Charles F. Stone/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ] )
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TO: Catherine H. Furlong ( CN=Catherine H. Furlong/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
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TO: Carol L. Capece ( CN=Carol L. Capece/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
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TO: Burth G. Lopez ( CN=Burth G. Lopez/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ] )
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TO: Brian A. Amorosi ( CN=Brian A. Amorosi/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
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TO: Audrey Choi ( CN=Audrey Choi/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ] )
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TO: Andrew R. Feldman ( CN=Andrew R. Feldman/OU=CEA/O=EOP [CEA])
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TO: Alice H. Williams ( CN=Alice H. Williams/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Aaron D. Tracy ( CN=Aaron D. Tracy/OU=CEA/O=EOP [CEA])
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Would whoever has the money envelope please return it to me? Call me, and
I'll come and get it.
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Joseph E. Aldy ( CN=Joseph E. Aldy/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ] )
CREATION DATE/TIME: 5-JUL-1999 11:01:18.00
SUBJECT: draft of Talent responses
TO: Victoria A. Greenfield ( CN=Victoria A. Greenfield/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Audrey Choi ( CN=Audrey Choi/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Quindi C. Franco ( CN=Quindi C. Franco/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [CEA])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Janet L. Yellen ( CN=Janet L. Yellen/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Attached is a rough draft of the responses to the Talent questions.
ATTACHMENT I
ATT CREATION TIME/DATE: 0 00:00:00.00
TEXT:
Unable to convert ARMS_EXT:[ATTACH.D16JARMS222122191.136 to ASCII,
The following is a HEX DUMP:
END ATTACHMENT 1
Questions for the record and requests for documents by Chairman James M. Talent
For Dr. Janet L. Yellen, Chair, Council of Economic Advisers
1.
Is the July 1998 "Kyoto Protocol and the President's Policies to Address
Climate Change: Administration Economic Analysis" the only analysis, economic or
otherwise, published by the Administration with regard to Kyoto Protocol's economic
efforts?
A1.
The July 1998 report "Kyoto Protocol and the President's Policies to Address
Climate Change: Administration Economic Analysis" (hereafter "AEA") and the
Department of Agriculture's agricultural sector report "Economic Analysis of U.S.
Agriculture and the Kyoto Protocol" published earlier this year are the only
Administration economic analyses of the Kyoto Protocol.
a. Please provide the anticipated amount of greenhouse gas emissions and
reduction obligations as published in the Administration's July 1998 analysis
for each country from 2008 to 2012 as defined in attached Chart A.
Ala. In conducting the illustrative modeling analysis presented in AEA, the
Administration estimated the anticipated emissions reductions necessary to
comply with Kyoto Annex B targets for 7 countries and regions within Annex I:
United States, Japan, Canada, Australia, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, and
Former Soviet Union. This set of countries and regions is consistent with the
country aggregations within the Second Generation Model used for this analysis.
For a description of the Second Generation Model, please refer to pages 131-156,
182-245 of "The Kyoto Protocol and its Economic Implications", Hearing before
the Subcommittee on Energy and Power of the Committee on Commerce, House
of Representatives, March 4, 1998 (hereafter "3/98 Energy and Power Hearing").
For these estimates of emissions reductions, please refer to pages 326 and 335 of
the 3/98 Energy and Power Hearing. For a description of the derivation of these
estimates, please refer to pages 316-321, 334.
b. Please provide the anticipated amount of credits the Administration's July
1998 published analysis assumes each country from 2008 to 2012 identified
in Chart B will supply or demand.
Alb. The AEA illustrative modeling analysis is not premised on an assumption
of how many emissions allowances a country or region would supply or demand.
Rather, the analysis made use of supply curves derived from a large set of SGM
model runs (please refer to pages 44-46 of the AEA for a description of the
construction of abatement cost curves, i.e., supply curves). These supply curves
have been published in the 3/98 Energy and Power Hearing, pages 327-331.
Please note that these supply curves are in 1992 U.S. dollars, and the
Administration adjusted these to 1997 U.S. dollars for presentation in the AEA.
Automated Records Management System Hex-Dump Conversion
For the United States, the number of emissions allowances purchased or
demanded on an annual average basis during the 2008-2012 commitment period
is provided on pages 322-323 of the 3/98 Energy and Power Hearing. Since the
number of emissions allowances demanded is a function of the permit price, the
spreadsheets on these pages provides a range of emissions purchased abroad that
varies with the extent of the trading system.
For the AEA, the Administration did not specifically estimate the number of
emissions allowances supplied or demanded by other countries and regions.
However, the supply, and implicit demand, for emissions allowances are
embedded in the supply curves described above. At a given permit price, the
number of domestic emissions reductions for a specific country or region can be
estimated, and when compared to the required emissions cut noted on p. 335 of
the 3/98 Energy and Power Hearing, it can be estimated whether the country or
region is a net supplier or purchaser of emissions allowances.
c. Complete the anticipated domestic baseline costs, e.g., without any flexibility
measures, the Administration's July 1998 analysis assumes will be necessary
for each country from 2008 to 2012 identified in Chart C to meet its Kyoto
Protocol obligations.
Alc. In conducting the AEA, the Administration focused on the direct resource
costs to the U.S. economy. The results for a wide variety of scenarios, including
the scenario where no flexibility mechanisms are used, are provided on pages
322-323 of the 3/98 Energy and Power Hearing. The Administration did not
estimate the economic costs to other countries and regions for the AEA.
2.
If your response to questions 1 is negative, identify and produce any
additional analysis, economic or otherwise, published by the Administration. If any
additional analyses are produced, provide the same information for each analysis as
requested in question 1.
A2.
The Department of Agriculture's analysis did not independently evaluate
international emissions trading and the nature of the supply of emissions reductions from
all Annex B countries. Thus, the information requested in 1a, 1b, and lc are not
available from this analysis. For an electronic version of this report, we suggest that you
download the file from http://www.usda.gov/oce/gcpo/gcponews.htm. We have also
enclosed a paper copy for your review.
3.
Has the Administration published an analysis, economic or otherwise, that
demonstrates the Kyoto Protocol's effects on U.S. jobs?
A3.
The AEA includes a discussion of the possible impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on
employment. Please refer to page 62 of the AEA for this discussion.
Automated Records Management System Hex-Dump Conversion
4.
If your response to question 3 is yes, identify and produce all analysis,
economic or otherwise, published by the Administration.
A4.
A copy of the AEA (electronic and paper) was submitted with the April 29
written statement.
5.
Identify and produce all Administration documents used to prepare the
United States delegates to the Conference of the Parties (COP-3) in Kyoto, Japan in
December 1997.
A5.
A set of documents pertaining to this request has been provided to the Committee.
An additional set of documents responsive to this request reflect internal deliberations of
the Executive Office of the President with regard to ongoing policies of the
Administration. As to such materials, please contact the Office of the Counsel to the
President.
a. Please identify and produce any quantitative economic analysis the
Administration made before the Kyoto Protocol that analyzes the Protocol's
effect on the United States' economy.
A5a. A set of documents pertaining to this request has been provided to the
Committee. An additional set of documents responsive to this request reflect
internal deliberations of the Executive Office of the President with regard to
ongoing policies of the Administration. As to such materials, please contact the
Office of the Counsel to the President.
6.
Identify and produce all Administration analyses after December 10, 1997
that analyzes, either economically or otherwise, the obligations assumed by the United
States at the Conference of the Parties (COP-3) in Kyoto, Japan in December 1997.
A6.
A copy of the AEA (electronic and paper) was submitted with the April 29
written statement. Further, a set of documents pertaining to this request has been
provided to the Committee. An additional set of documents responsive to this
request reflect internal deliberations of the Executive Office of the President with
regard to ongoing policies of the Administration. As to such materials, please
contact the Office of the Counsel to the President.
a. Complete the anticipated amount of greenhouse gas emissions and reduction
obligation each analysis identified in your response to question no. 6 assumes
for each country from 2008 to 2012 listed in attached Chart A.
A6a. Regarding the AEA, please refer to the response to question 1. All
subsequent CEA analyses make use of the model and assumptions underlying the
AEA.
Automated Records Management System Hex-Dump Conversion
b. Complete the anticipated amount of credits each analysis identified in your
response to question no. 6 assumes each country from 2008 to 2012 identified
in Chart B will supply or demand.
A6b. Regarding the AEA, please refer to the response to question 1. All
subsequent CEA analyses make use of the model and assumptions underlying the
AEA.
c. Complete the anticipated domestic baseline costs, e.g., without any flexibility
measures, each analysis identified in your response to question no. 6 assumes
will be necessary for each country from 2008 to 2012 identified in Chart C to
meet its Kyoto Protocol obligations.
A6c. Regarding the AEA, please refer to the response to question 1. All
subsequent CEA analyses make use of the model and assumptions underlying the
AEA.
7.
Identify and produce all Administration analyses, either economic or
otherwise, prior to December 10, 1997 that demonstrates the effect on the U.S. economy
of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels.
A7.
A set of documents pertaining to this request has been provided to the Committee.
An additional set of documents responsive to this request reflect internal deliberations of
the Executive Office of the President with regard to ongoing policies of the
Administration. As to such materials, please contact the Office of the Counsel to the
President.
a. Complete the anticipated amount of greenhouse gas emissions and reduction
obligation each analysis identified in your response to question no. 7 assumes
for each country from 2008 to 2012 identified in attached Chart A.
A7a. The set of economic and other kinds of analyses undertaken by the
Administration predating the 1997 Kyoto Conference is large. CEA does not
have detailed country-by-country data used in these analyses, most of which were
completed by other Administration agencies.
b. Complete the anticipated amount of credits each analysis identified in your
response to question no. 7 assumes each country from 2008 to 2012 identified
in Chart B will supply or demand.
A7b. The set of economic and other kinds of analyses undertaken by the
Administration predating the 1997 Kyoto Conference is large. CEA does not
have detailed country-by-country data used in these analyses, most of which were
completed by other Administration agencies.
Automated Records Management System Hex-Dump Conversion
c. Complete anticipated domestic baseline costs, e.g., without any flexibility
measures, each analysis identified in your response to question no. 7 assumes
will be necessary for each country from 2008 to 2012 identified in Chart C to
meet its Kyoto Protocol obligations.
A7c. The set of economic and other kinds of analyses undertaken by the
Administration predating the 1997 Kyoto Conference is large. CEA does not
have detailed country-by-country data used in these analyses, most of which were
completed by other Administration agencies.
8.
Identify and produce all Administration analyses, either economic or
otherwise, after December 10, 1997 that demonstrates the effect on the U.S. economy of
reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels.
A8.
We are not familiar with any Administration economic analyses that evaluated an
emissions target of 1990 levels after December 10, 1997, with one exception in the set of
scenarios evaluated in conducting the AEA. Please refer to page 323 of the 3/98 Energy
and Power Hearing for this one scenario. The underlying model and assumptions of this
scenario are the same as for the AEA, excluding the U.S. emissions target, which was set
at 1990 levels. Please note that the 1990 levels target was evaluated for a domestic only
(no international emissions trading) scenario, so the following questions are not
applicable.
a. Complete the anticipated amount of greenhouse gas emissions and reduction
obligation each analysis identified in your response to question no. 8 assumes
for each country from 2008 to 2012 identified in attached Chart A.
A8a. Not applicable.
b. Complete the anticipated amount of credits each analysis identified in your
response to question no. 8 assumes each country from 2008 to 2012 identified
in Chart B will supply or demand.
A8b. Not applicable.
c. Complete the anticipated baseline costs, e.g., without any flexibility measures,
each analysis identified in your response to question no. 9 assumes will be
necessary for each country from 2008 to 2012 identified in Chart C to meet
its Kyoto Protocol obligations.
A8c. Not applicable.
Automated Records Management System Hex-Dump Conversion
9.
Identify and produce all Administration analyses, either economic or
otherwise, after December 10, 1997 that demonstrates the effect on the U.S. economy of
reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 7% below 1990 levels.
A9.
A copy of the AEA (electronic and paper) was submitted with the April 29
written statement. Further, a set of documents pertaining to this request has been
provided to the Committee. An additional set of documents responsive to this request
reflect internal deliberations of the Executive Office of the President with regard to
ongoing policies of the Administration. As to such materials, please contact the Office of
the Counsel to the President.
a. Complete the anticipated amount of greenhouse gas emissions and reduction
obligation each analysis identified in your response to question no. 9 assumes
for each country from 2008 to 2012 identified in Chart A.
A9a. Please refer to the response to question la.
b. Complete the anticipated amount of credits each analysis identified in your
response to question no 9 assumes each country from 2008 to 2012 identified
in Chart B will supply or demand.
A9b. Please refer to the response to question 1b.
c. Complete the anticipated domestic baseline costs, e.g., without any flexibility
measures, each analysis identified in your response to question no. 9 assumes
will be necessary for each country from 2008 to 2012 identified in Chart C to
meet its Kyoto Protocol obligations.
A9c. Please refer to the response to question 1c.
10.
Identify and produce all Administration analyses, either economic or
otherwise, after December 10, 1997 that demonstrate the effect on the U.S. economy
reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 7% below 1990 levels.
A10. A copy of the AEA (electronic and paper) was submitted with the April 29
written statement. Further, a set of documents pertaining to this request has been
provided to the Committee. An additional set of documents responsive to this request
reflect internal deliberations of the Executive Office of the President with regard to
ongoing policies of the Administration. As to such materials, please contact the Office of
the Counsel to the President.
a. Complete the anticipated amount of greenhouse gas emissions and reduction
obligation each analysis identified in your response to question no. 10
assumes for each country from 2008 to 2012 identified in Chart A.
Automated Records Management System Hex-Dump Conversion
A10a. Regarding the AEA, please refer to the response to question la. All
subsequent CEA analyses make use of the model and assumptions underlying the
AEA.
b. Complete the anticipated amount of credits each analysis identified in your
response to question no. 10 assumes each country from 2008 to 2012
identified in Chart B will supply or demand.
A10b. Regarding the AEA, please refer to the response to question 1b. All
subsequent CEA analyses make use of the model and assumptions underlying the
AEA.
c. Complete the anticipated domestic baseline costs, e.g., without any flexibility
measures, each analysis identified in your response to question no. 10 assumes
will be necessary for each country from 2008 to 2012 identified in Chart C to
meet its Kyoto Protocol obligations.
A10c. Regarding the AEA, please refer to the response to question 1c. All
subsequent CEA analyses make use of the model and assumptions underlying the
AEA.
11.
Identify and produce all Administration analyses, either economic or
otherwise, prior to December 10, 1997 that demonstrate the effect on the U.S. economy
of reducing greenhouse gas emissions any amount.
A11. A set of documents pertaining to this request has been provided to the Committee.
An additional set of documents responsive to this request reflect internal deliberations of
the Executive Office of the President with regard to ongoing policies of the
Administration. As to such materials, please contact the Office of the Counsel to the
President.
a.
Complete the anticipated amount of greenhouse gas emissions and
reduction obligation each analysis identified in your response to question
no. 11 assumes for each country from 2008 to 2012 identified in Chart A.
A1 1a. The set of economic and other kinds of analyses undertaken by the
Administration predating the 1997 Kyoto Conference is large. CEA does not
have detailed country-by-country data used in these analyses, most of which were
completed by other Administration agencies.
b.
Complete the anticipated amount of credits each analysis identified in your
response to question no. 11 assumes each country from 2008 to 2012
identified in Chart B will supply or demand.
Automated Records Management System Hex-Dump Conversion
Allb. The set of economic and other kinds of analyses undertaken by the
Administration predating the 1997 Kyoto Conference is large. CEA does not
have detailed country-by-country data used in these analyses, most of which were
completed by other Administration agencies.
c.
Complete the anticipated domestic baseline costs, e.g., without any
flexibility measures, each analysis identified in your response to question
no. 11 assumes will be necessary for each country from 2008 to 2012
identified in Chart C to meet its Kyoto Protocol obligations.
Allc. The set of economic and other kinds of analyses undertaken by the
Administration predating the 1997 Kyoto Conference is large. CEA does not
have detailed country-by-country data used in these analyses, most of which were
completed by other Administration agencies.
12.
Identify and produce all Administration analyses, either economic or
otherwise prior to December 10, 1997 that demonstrate the effect on the U.S economy of
reducing greenhouse gas emissions in any amount.
A12. A set of documents pertaining to this request has been provided to the Committee.
An additional set of documents responsive to this request reflect internal deliberations of
the Executive Office of the President with regard to ongoing policies of the
Administration. As to such materials, please contact the Office of the Counsel to the
President.
a.
Complete the anticipated amount of greenhouse gas emissions and
reduction obligation each analysis identified in your response to question
no. 12 assumes for each country from 2008 to 2012 identified in Chart A.
A12a. The set of economic and other kinds of analyses undertaken by the
Administration predating the 1997 Kyoto Conference is large. CEA does not
have detailed country-by-country data used in these analyses, most of which were
completed by other Administration agencies.
b.
Complete the anticipated amount of credits each analysis identified in your
response to question no. 12 assumes each country from 2008 to 2012
identified in Chart B will supply or demand.
A12b. The set of economic and other kinds of analyses undertaken by the
Administration predating the 1997 Kyoto Conference is large. CEA does not
have detailed country-by-country data used in these analyses, most of which were
completed by other Administration agencies.
c.
Complete the anticipated domestic baseline costs, e.g., without any
flexibility measures, each analysis identified in your response to question
Automated Records Management System Hex-Dump Conversion
no. 12 assumes will be necessary for each country from 2008 to 2012
identified in Chart C to meet its Kyoto Protocol obligations.
A12c. The set of economic and other kinds of analyses undertaken by the
Administration predating the 1997 Kyoto Conference is large. CEA does not
have detailed country-by-country data used in these analyses, most of which were
completed by other Administration agencies.
13.
Identify and produce all Administration analyses, either economic or
otherwise prior to December 10, 1997 that demonstrates the effect on U.S. jobs of
reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels.
A13. A set of documents pertaining to this request has been provided to the Committee.
An additional set of documents responsive to this request reflect internal deliberations of
the Executive Office of the President with regard to ongoing policies of the
Administration. As to such materials, please contact the Office of the Counsel to the
President.
14.
Identify and produce all Administration analyses, either economic or
otherwise, after December 10, 1997 that demonstrates the effect on U.S. job of reducing
greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels.
A14. We are not familiar with any Administration analyses that evaluated an emissions
target of 1990 levels after December 10, 1997, with one exception in the set of scenarios
evaluated in conducting the AEA (please refer to answer 8). This one exception did not
include an assessment of employment implications.
15.
Identify and produce all Administration analyses, either economic or
otherwise, prior to December 10, 1997 that demonstrates the effect on U.S. jobs of
reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 7% below 1990 levels.
A15. We are not familiar with any Administration analyses that evaluated an emissions
target of 1990 -7% levels prior to December 10, 1997, however, analyses were
conducted on a range of targets that includes this emissions level. A set of documents
pertaining to this request has been provided to the Committee. An additional set of
documents responsive to this request reflect internal deliberations of the Executive Office
of the President with regard to ongoing policies of the Administration. As to such
materials, please contact the Office of the Counsel to the President.
16.
Identify and produce all Administration analyses, either economic or
otherwise, after December 10, 1997 that demonstrates the effect on U.S. jobs of reducing
greenhouse gas emissions to 7% below 1990 levels.
A16. The AEA includes a discussion of the possible impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on
employment. Please refer to page 62 of the AEA for this discussion.
Automated Records Management System Hex-Dump - Conversion
17.
Identify and produce all Administration analyses, either economic or
otherwise, prior to December 10, 1997 that demonstrates the effect on U.S. jobs of
reducing greenhouse gases any amount.
A17. A set of documents pertaining to this request has been provided to the Committee.
An additional set of documents responsive to this request reflect internal deliberations of
the Executive Office of the President with regard to ongoing policies of the
Administration. As to such materials, please contact the Office of the Counsel to the
President.
18.
Identify and produce all Administration analyses, either economic or
otherwise, after December 10, 1997 that demonstrates the effect on U.S. jobs of reducing
greenhouse gases any amount.
A18. The AEA includes a discussion of the possible impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on
employment. Please refer to page 62 of the AEA for this discussion.
19.
Complete the anticipated amount of greenhouse gas emissions and
reduction obligation the Kyoto Protocol assumes for each country from 2008 to 2012
identified in Chart A.
A19. Please refer to answer 1a.
a.
Complete the anticipated amount of credits the Kyoto Protocol assumes
each country from 2008 to 2012 identified in Chart B will supply or
demand.
A19a. Please refer to answer 1b.
b.
Complete the anticipated domestic baseline costs, e.g., without any
flexibility measures, the Kyoto Protocol assumes will be necessary for
each country from 2008 to 2012 identified in Chart C to meet its Kyoto
Protocol obligations.
A19b. Please refer to answer 1c.
20.
At the April 29, 1999 hearing, you testified some analyses conclude that
the permit price for a ton of carbon dioxide will be less than $14 to $23 per ton. Identify,
by author, date of analyses, location of analysis, and produce all analyses, which
conclude that the permit price for a ton of carbon dioxide is less than the
Administration's $14 to $23 per ton.
A20. The statement regarding the results of other modeling analyses referred to the
research of modeling teams participating in the Stanford Energy Modeling (EMF) forum.
Automated Records Management System Hex-Dump Conversion
The findings from this exercise were published in a special issue of The Energy Journal
this spring. For an overview and comparison of the modeling results, we suggest that
you review the following paper:
Weyant, J.P. and J.N. Hill. 1999. Introduction and Overview. The Energy
Journal, Kyoto Special Issue: vii-xliv.
A paper copy of this article is enclosed. Page xxxi provides a chart detailing carbon price
comparisons of the 11 EMF models that had results for the United States. This chart
includes results from models with permit prices greater than those estimated by the
Second Generation Model used by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and results
from models with permit prices lower than those estimated by SGM. For more detail on
these modeling results - including authors, affiliations, and date of research publication --
we provide the citations for the published articles on EMF models below:
Bernstein, P.M., W.D. Montgomery, T.F. Rutherford, and G. Yang. 1999.
Effects of Restrictions on International Permit Trading: The MS-MRT Model.
The Energy Journal, Kyoto Special Issue: 221-256.
Bollen, J., A. Gielen, and H. Timmer. 1999. Clubs, Ceilings, and CDM:
Macroeconomics of Compliance with the Kyoto Protocol. The Energy Journal,
Kyoto Special Issue: 177-206.
Cooper, A., S. Livermore, V. Rossi, A. Wilson, and J. Walker. 1999. The
Economic Implications of Reducing Carbon Emissions: A Cross-Country
Quantitative Investigation using the Oxford Global Macroeconomic and Energy
Model. The Energy Journal, Kyoto Special Issue: 335-366.
Jacoby, H.D. and I.S. Wing. 1999. Adjustment Time, Capital Malleability, and
Policy Cost. The Energy Journal, Kyoto Special Issue: 73-92.
Kainuma, M., Y. Matsuoka, and T. Morita. 1999. Analysis of Post-Kyoto
Scenarios: The Asian-Pacific Integrated Model. The Energy Journal, Kyoto
Special Issue: 207-220.
Kurosawa, A., H. Yagita, Z. Weisheng, K. Tokimatsu, and Y. Yanagisawa. 1999.
Analysis of Carbon Emission Stabilization Targets and Adaptation by Integrated
Assessment Model. The Energy Journal, Kyoto Special Issue: 157-176.
MacCracken, C.N., J.A. Edmonds, S.H. Kim, and R.D. Sands. 1999. The
Economics of the Kyoto Protocol. The Energy Journal, Kyoto Special Issue: 25-
72.
Automated Records Management System Hex-Dump Conversion
Manne, A.S. and R. Richels. 1999. The Kyoto Protocol: A Cost-Effective
Strategy for Meeting Environmental Objectives? The Energy Journal, Kyoto
Special Issue: 1-24.
McKibbin, W., M. Ross, R. Shackleton, P. Wilcoxen. 1999. Emissions Trading,
Capital Flows, and the Kyoto Protocol. The Energy Journal, Kyoto Special Issue:
287-334.
Nordhaus, W.D. and J.G. Boyer. 1999. Requiem for Kyoto: An Economic
Analysis of the Kyoto Protocol. The Energy Journal, Kyoto Special Issue: 93-
130.
Peck, S.C. and T.J. Teisberg. 1999. CO2 Emissions Control Agreements:
Incentives for Regional Participation. The Energy Journal, Kyoto Special Issue:
367-390.
Tol, R.S.J. 1999. Kyoto, Efficiency, and Cost-Effectiveness: Applications of
FUND. The Energy Journal, Kyoto Special Issue: 131-156.
Tulpule, V., S. Brown, J. Lim, C. Polidano, H. Pant, and B. Fisher. 1999. The
Kyoto Protocol: An Economic Analysis Using GTEM. The Energy Journal,
Kyoto Special Issue: 257-286.
21.
At the April 29, 1999 hearing, you testified some analyses conclude that
the permit price for a ton of carbon dioxide will be more than $14 to $23 per ton.
Identify, by author, date of analysis and location of the analysis, and produce all analyses,
which conclude the permit price for a ton of carbon dioxide is more than the
Administration's $14 to $23 per ton.
A21. Please refer to answer 20.
22.
Please produce all documents reviewed when responding to these questions.
A22. We have submitted the overview and synthesis article, and provided citations for
the other papers in answer 20.
23.
The Administration identified the recent energy restructuring bill's effect
on various groups and sectors of the nation. Please provide the same information for the
Kyoto Protocol, including, but not limited to, the following:
a.
the Council of Economic Advisers estimates regarding increased costs for
an average household in key regions of the country. This should include
estimates for oil (heating and gasoline), natural gas, and electricity for a
typical household in the Northeast, Southeast, South, Mid-West,
Northwest and Southwest regions of the United States;
Automated Records Management System Hex-Dump Conversion
A23a. We do not have estimates of the distribution of household impacts by
region.
b.
the Council of Economic Advisers estimates regarding increased 2010
living costs for a senior citizen living on social security;
A23b. We do not have estimates of the distribution of impacts by age group.
c.
the Council of Economic Advisers estimates regarding increased 2010
living costs for an individual living on welfare;
A23c. We do not have estimates of the distribution of impacts by income group.
d.
the Council of Economic Advisers estimates regarding operating costs for
an average small business of 50 employees. This should include estimates
for oil (heating and gasoline), natural gas, and electricity for a typical
small business in the Northeast, Southeast, South, Mid-West, Northwest
and Southwest regions of the United States.
A23d. We do not have estimates of the distribution of impacts by firm size.
Automated Records Management System Hex-Dump Conversion
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Francine P. Obermiller ( CN=Francine P. Obermiller/OU=CEA/O=EOP [CEA])
CREATION DATE/TIME: 6-JUL-1999 18:06:07.00
SUBJECT: July 8-Lunch w/August Schumacher
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA])
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Per your request, I have scheduled lunch for you with August Schumacher
for Thurs, July 8, 12:00noon, at USDA, Whitten Building, 1400 Independence
Ave, SW, Room 205E. Go to the Jefferson Drive entrance. When you get to
the door, the guard will call up to his office, and then let you go up.
Lunch will be in the USDA Dining Room.
720-3111
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Francine P. Obermiller ( CN=Francine P. Obermiller/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ]
)
CREATION DATE/TIME: 6-JUL-1999 12:27:05.00
SUBJECT: POSTPONED-Deputies Meeting on WTO
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
CC: Victoria A. Greenfield ( CN=Victoria A. Greenfield/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Forwarded by Francine P. Obermiller/CEA/EOP on
07/06/99 12:26 PM
Sharon H. Yuan
07/06/99 12:11:24 PM
Record Type: Record
To:
See the distribution list at the bottom of this message
cc:
See the distribution list at the bottom of this message
Subject:
Deputies Meeting on WTO
The Deputies Meeting on WTO, scheduled for tomorrow at 11:00 am, has been
postponed due to scheduling difficulties. The meeting will most likely
not be rescheduled until late next week. I will contact your offices with
more details.
Thanks.
Sy
Message Sent
To:
[email protected] @ inet
Lisa D. Branch/CEA/EOP@EOP
[email protected] @ inet
Marilyn L. Scott-Perez/NSC/EOP@EOP
[email protected] @ inet
[email protected] @ inet
[email protected]
[email protected]
Ann E. Woolston/OVP@OVP
Joanne M. Hilty/OVP@OVP
Andrew F. Schneider/OVP@OVP
Francine P. Obermiller/CEA/EOP@EOP
[email protected]
Message Copied
To:
Matthew P. Schaefer/NSC/EOP@EOP
D Holly Hammonds/OPD/EOP@EOP
Elaine M. Mitsler/OPD/EOP@EOP
[email protected]@INET@VAXGTWY
[email protected]@INET@VAXGTWY
[email protected]@INET@VAXGTWY
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Francine P. Obermiller ( CN=Francine P. Obermiller/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
CREATION DATE/TIME: 6-JUL-1999 14:13:22.00
SUBJECT: Janet Currie and David Levine
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
David Levine is the Chairman of the Economics at UCLA where Janet Currie
works. I called his number, but got his voicemail. I left a message for
him to call you ASAP.
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Francine P. Obermiller ( CN=Francine P. Obermiller/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
CREATION DATE/TIME: 6-JUL-1999 13:19:36.00
SUBJECT: JANET CURRIE, UCLA Dept of Econs
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA
READ:UNKNOWN
CC: Lisa D. Branch ( CN=Lisa D. Branch/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP CEA
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
I called UCLA and talked to someone in the Dept of Economics.
They said that they don't think that Currie is on vacation, but that she
isn't expected back until mid August. I told them that we were calling
from the White House and that it was urgent and could I get her home phone
number. She said that it did not matter if we were calling from the White
House, that she could not give out her home number, but that she would
call and leave a message at her home.
I reemphasized that it was important that you get in touch with
her.
Forwarded by Francine P. Obermiller/CEA/EOP on
07/06/99 01:16 PM
LISA D.
BRANCH
06/30/99 03:56:12 PM
Record Type: Record
To:
Francine P. Obermiller/CEA/EOP@EOP, Sandra F.
Daigle/CEA/EOP@EOP, Alice H. Williams/CEA/EOP@EOP
cc:
Subject:
JANET CURRIE, UCLA Dept of Econs
Per Martin's request, Robert has been trying to contact Prof Currie.
Today we were informed she is on vacation thru mid-August, and she did not
leave a phone number with her office. We've left several messages asking
for a return call. If she calls in while Robert is in Athens, we are to
get a phone number (and whereabouts) and contact Robert (and/or Martin)
with that information ASAP.
Thanks.
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Steven N. Braun ( CN=Steven N. Braun/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ] )
CREATION DATE/TIME: 6-JUL-1999 12:39:49.00
SUBJECT: call from Alejandro Bopido-Memba (WSJ)
TO: Janet L. Yellen ( CN=Janet L. Yellen/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Audrey Choi ( CN=Audrey Choi/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA])
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
I just received a call from Alejandro Bopido-Memba (Wall St. Journal) who
is working on a story about our new economic assumptions especially the
revision to productivity growth and its effects on the very long range
budget surplus. I directed him to the paragraphs on page 7 of the MSR
where productivity growth is discussed and to chart 2-8 (page 34) of
Analytic Perspectives where some alternative productivity growth
simulations are plotted.
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: [email protected] ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN 1)
CREATION DATE/TIME: 6-JUL-1999 13:33:04.00
SUBJECT: Notes for PREM Week Speakers
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP [CEA])
READ:UNKNOWN
CC: Lisa D. Branch ( CN=Lisa D. Branch/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Dear Dr. Lawrence:
Attached are some general information on PREM week that you might find
useful in
your preparation for the talk. The attached also contains registration
information, the latest program and directions to the Inn and Conference
Center
of the University of Maryland.
Please note that if you would like us to make copies of your handouts or
transparencies, we would be most grateful if you could send them to us by
cob
Fri, July 9.
If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact me at
(202)473-3429
or by Email.
Many thanks.
Forwarded by Vivian Y.N. Hon/Person/World Bank on
07/06/99 01:16 PM
Mary Santos
07/04/99 04:53 AM
To: [email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet, Junaid
Kamal
Ahmad, William Allan/Washington/Imf@lmf, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet, Gloria
Bartoli,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@lnternet, [email protected]@Internet, Robert
R.
Blake, [email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, Rekha N. Dayal, Peter N. Dean,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
Charles J.
A. Draper, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet, Ali
Hashim, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet, Ravi
Kanbur, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, Richard S. Newfarmer,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, Garry Pursell,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, Nigel Roberts, Naazneen Barma,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet,[email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, Joseph E. Stiglitz, Marisela Montoliu
Munoz, Phyllis R. Pomerantz, Masood Ahmed Prmvp, Jack
Boorman/Washington/Imf@Imf, Paul Collier, [email protected]@Internet,
Roberta V. Gatti, Wendy Cunningham, Constantijn A. Claessens, Patrick
Thomas Honohan, Ashoka Mody, Sanjay Pradhan,
[email protected]@Internet,
Marcelo Selowsky, Pierre Landell-Mills, Kenichi Ohashi, M. Helen
Sutch,
Shantayanan Devarajan, Charles Humphreys, Ulrich Zachau, Daniel
Kaufmann,
Vinod Thomas, William J. Martin, Nader Aghili, Abdolreza Farivari,
Maria
Cristina Germany, Ronnie W. Hammad, Tariqul I. Khan, Christian E.
Petersen, Thirumalai G. Srinivasan, Elizabeth M. Morris-Hughes,
Donald
Mathieson/Washington/Imf@Imf, Ulrich Zachau, Rene R. Ruivivar,
Fahrettin
Yagci, Martin Ravallion, Jeffrey S. Hammer, Jeni G. Klugman,
[email protected]@Internet, Keith E. Hansen, Ruben Lamdany, John
Page,
Joanne Salop, Uri B. Dadush, Dipak Dasgupta, Ritva S. Reinikka,
Pauline F.
Earp, Katherine Sierra, Deepa Narayan, Guillermo Perry, Adam
Wagstaff,
Gordon Betcherman, Stephen Commins, Judith A. Edstrom, Margaret Ellen
Grosh, James Anderson, Randi Susan Ryterman, Pablo Zoido-Lobaton,
Jerry A.
Lebo, Thampil Pankaj, Maryvonne Plessis-Fraissard, Soniya Carvalho,
Shamit
Chakravarti, Erica Felix-Castaneda, Sarah F. Cliffe, Lant Hayward
Pritchett, Aart C. Kraay, Jakob Svensson, Vijayendra Rao, Andres Rigo
Sureda, Peter Heller/Washington/Imf@Imf, Helen Saxenian, Robert R.
Blake,
Charles J. A. Draper, Garry Pursell, Bartek K. Kaminski, Delfin Sia
Go,
Michael Lewin, Jos Verbeek, Adam Wagstaff, Helga W. Muller, Judy M.
O'connor, Ali Hashim, Gershon Feder, Christiaan N. Grootaert, Sheoli
Pargal, Gita Gopal, Rekha N. Dayal, Adoracion B. Mojica-Caliboso, N.
Roberto Zagha, Robert Holzmann, John A. Dixon, Gunnar S. Eskeland,
Charles
M. Feinstein, Mansour Farsad, Jagdish K. Gill, Ronnie Das Gupta,
Djordjija
B. Petkoski, Myla Taylor Williams
cc: Prem Week/Service, Cynthia D. Herlaar, Ann Duncan, Andrew Parker,
Sharon
D. Faulkner, Mariza Guimaraes, Shahrokh Fardoust, John H. Johnson,
Susan
E. Wilder, Michael Lewin, Diana S. Walker, Maria Ionata, Ayda Aysun
Yurekli, Brian David Levy, Frederick C. Stapenhurst, Vivian Y.N.
Hon,
Victoria M. Elliott, Farrukh Iqbal, Zoubida Allaoua, Judy L. Baker,
Michelle Riboud, Kirk E. Hamilton, David O. Sewell, Sohail J. Malik,
Anwar
M. Shah, Marnia Lazreg, Amit Dar, Joseph Michael Finger, Jesko S.
Hentschel, Radha Seshagiri, Jeni G. Klugman, Silvana M. Valle, M.
Arlette
Campbell White, Eugene R. Boostrom, Elizabeth Shrader, Caroline
Zwicker,
Ronald E. Myers, Quentin T. Wodon, Hana Polackova, Kene Ezemenari,
Antonio
C. Lim, Wendy E. Wakeman, Richard Adams, Luca Barbone, Caroline
Zwicker,
C. Mark Blackden, Lucia Fort, Ronald L. Johannes, Klaus W. Deininger,
[email protected]@lnternet, Punam Chuhan, Claudia Paz
Sepulveda,
Sergio L. Schmukler, Sara Guerschanik Calvo, Carol Gabyzon, Nicole M.
Fults, Miria A. Pigato, Jennie I. Litvack, Deborah L. Wetzel, Nick
Manning, Barbara Nunberg, Andrew D. Mason, Susan R. Razzaz, Michelle
Riboud, Faezeh S. Foroutan, Malcolm R. G. Holmes, Richard E.
Messick, Anna
Monica Hansson, Alison S. Panton, Sonia A. Ainsworth, Lydia Kabwiku,
Phyllis R. Pomerantz, Mallika Krishnamurthy, Sahr Kpundeh,
[email protected]@lnternet, Giovanna Prennushi, Simone Cecchini,
Karen
Sirker, Julian A. Lampietti, Gurushri N. Swamy, Margaret Ellen Grosh,
Kalanidhi Subbarao, Faezeh S. Foroutan, Ronnie Das Gupta, Adam
Wagstaff,
Davidson R Gwatkin, Rehana Akhtar Khanam/Fo/Ifc, Lyn Squire, Cheryl
W.
Gray, Tripti S. Thomas, Vinaya Swaroop, Djinsinah Husain, Yan
Wang-Wbi,
Peter R. Fallon
Subject: Notes for PREM Week Speakers--Please confirm receipt of this
message.
PREM Week '99: Fighting Poverty in the 21st Century
Notes for PREM Week Speakers
Thank you very much for agreeing to be one of our speakers at this year's
PREM
Week. These notes are designed to provide you with some background on the
PREM
Network; the organization of the various sessions at PREM Week '99; and
some
suggestions for the content of your presentation.
The PREM Network
The World Bank is organized into networks of staff working on particular
areas
of policy. The primary focus of the Poverty Reduction and Economic
Management
(PREM) Network is on how best to assist developing countries reduce poverty
through good economic management, strengthened institutions, effective
governance and by mainstreaming gender issues in development strategies.
PREM Week '99
Our annual PREM Week conference brings together many of the Bank's 800+
staff in
the Network who are heavily involved in the Bank?s policy work, coming from
various disciplines: economics, sociology, political science and
anthropology.
We also expect outside experts in topics on macroeconomic policy, gender,
poverty and the public sector who will join us as panelists and keynote
speakers.
The objectives of the PREM Week are:
ú to enable Bank staff to be more effective in carrying out the Bank's
mission of poverty reduction;
ú to bring participants up to date with the latest developments and
thinking
in PREM's areas of work;
ú to challenge participants to think in innovative ways and to consider
new
approaches to apply in their development work; and
ú to provide opportunities for participants to network with colleagues
An outline of the program of events at PREM Week is attached. Please
ensure
that you know which session you are presenting in and the timing. If you
are in
any doubt about which session you are presenting or the subject matter to
be
covered, please liaise with the Bank staff member coordinating your
session.
PREM Week Sessions: Suggestions for Organization and Content
Feedback from participants at last year's event indicated that the best
sessions
were those that not only covered interesting and relevant subject
material, but
were also well organized in terms of time-management and presentation of
content. We would therefore encourage you to consider the following
points in
preparing and delivering your presentation:
ú Time management: Please aim to arrive at your session room 30 minutes
before your session so you can meet the session Chair and deal with any
last-minute details.
ú As we wish to provide enough time for questions and answers, please
keep
your presentation to the length agreed with your session organizer.
ú Materials: Short handouts for participants are valuable aids to
summarize
your key points and to raise issues that could be discussed by participants
during the question-and-answer part of the session. You are therefore most
welcome to prepare such handouts, which can be reproduced and made
available to
participants at the session. If you wish to do this, please provide us
sufficient time to photocopy the materials by sending them (by e-mail) no
later
than c.o.b. Friday, July 9.
ú Senior Bank staff and others working on your topic are likely to
attend
your session, so you may like to use the opportunity to raise issues for
discussion that you would like to hear reactions to from Bank staff and our
external partners.
ú Audio-Visual Equipment: An overhead projector and flip chart will be
available in every room. If you have any other special presentation needs,
please let me know by c.o.b. Friday, July 9, so we can make the necessary
arrangements.
ú VIP Room: Once you have registered, you are welcome to make use of
VIP Room
to meet with your session organizer who will brief you in more detail
about your
role at PREM Week '99. Please contact your session organizer to check
what time
you should meet him/her in the VIP Room.
ú The VIP Room is equipped with a telephone line for local calls, a fax
machine, and computer that you are welcome to use during your free time.
ú Do not hesitate to contact PREM Week organizing staff who can answer
all
your questions with regard to logistics and general organization (Contact:
Mary
Santos 202-473-3294 or Cynthia Herlaar 202-458-5234)
Logistical Information for PREM Week '99
When and where will PREM Week be held?
PREM Week '99 will be held at the Inn and Conference Center of the
University of
Maryland University College, located on University Boulevard at Adelphi
Road,
College Park, Maryland 20742.
The event will convene on Tuesday, July 13 at 9:15AM and will conclude at
5:30PM
on Wednesday, July 14, followed by a Reception from 5:30PM to 7:00PM
Attached below is an area map with specific directions to the University of
Maryland. Please use it as your guide to the Center. You will receive a
room
map of the actual conference site upon your arrival.
(See attached file: univofmd.doc)
How to get to PREM Week
If you are traveling from Washington, DC, local transportation to the
Center
will be available. A bus will leave from the front of the Main Complex
(MC)
building of the World Bank Group on 1818 H Street, NW at 8:00AM on both
days of
the conference. The bus will leave the conference site between 6:00PM and
6:30PM on Tuesday, July 13, and at 7:00PM on Wednesday, July 14.
If you are traveling by Metro, there will be a shuttle service between the
Inn
and Conference Center and the Prince George?s Plaza Metro station on the
Green
Line in operation from 7:30AM to 6:15PM on Tuesday, July 13, and from
8:30AM to
7:15PM on Wednesday, July 14. The shuttle ride takes about 10-15
minutes. The
shuttle schedule between the Inn and Conference Center and the Prince
George?s
Plaza Metro station is included in the "univofmd.doc" attachment.
Registration
To register for PREM Week, please come to the special Speakers' Table
which will
be located at the front lobby of the Inn and Conference Center. You can
also
pick-up your per diem and/or honorarium (if applicable) at the Speakers'
Table.
Registration hours are as follows:
Tuesday, July 13
8:00AM -- 4:30PM
Wednesday, July 14 8:30AM -- 4:00PM
The Latest PREM Week '99 Schedule
The latest PREM Week '99 schedule is attached below. You will receive
information on your travel/hotel arrangements, your sessions, and your per
diem
and/or honorarium (if applicable) in a separate message by cob Monday,
July 5.
(See attached file: Program0703.doc)
What services and facilities are available to me at the Center?
There will be a Message Center at the entrance of the Inn and Conference
Center
to help participants make contact with each other. Please note that this
service is not intended for official or confidential communications. The
Inn
and Conference Center and PREM Week Organizing Team cannot be held
responsible
for ensuring that recipients receive messages, or for forwarding
uncollected
messages.
The VIP Room will be equipped with a telephone line for local calls, fax
machine, and computer that you are welcome to use during your free time.
The Inn and Conference Center has a business center that can handle
facsimile
and courier services, as well as limited postal services. Business hours
are
from 7:00AM to 7:00PM
There are a few banks in the proximity of the Center which will be able to
handle currency exchanges. Business hours are from 9:00AM to 4:00PM
What if I want to ship materials that I will need for PREM Week '99?
You may send them to the PREM Advisory Service, World Bank, Room MC4-501,
1818 H
Street, Washington DC 20433 Attn: Cynthia Herlaar. Please make sure that
your
name clearly appears on your shipment. We should receive this shipment by
July
9, so that we can move them with the rest of our conference materials to
the Inn
and Conference Center.
Materials may also be sent directly to The Inn and Conference Center,
University
of Maryland University College, University Boulevard at Adelphi Road,
College
Park MD 20742-1610, (301)985-7300. However, they should not arrive before
July
12 at the conference site.
Who do I contact if I have other questions or if I need further assistance?
Here are some useful contact numbers for your reference:
+
Phone/Fax
Location
+
+
PREM Week Office
Through July 12, 1999:
202-473-3294
Fax 202-522-3903
From July 13-14, 1999:
Room: 1101
301-985-4652
Fax: 985-4651
VIP Room
301-985-4656 or
301-985-4655
Registration/Info Desk
301-985-4657
Main Concourse
+
+
Speakers' Table
301-985-4658
Main Concourse
+
+
If you need further assistance with conference
arrangements and procedures,
Cynthia Herlaar, Conference Organizer for PREM Week, may be reached as
follows:
Through July 9, 1999
Telephone: 202-458-5234
Facsimile: 202-522-3096
E-mail: [email protected]
From July 13-14, 1999
Telephone: 301-985-4652
Facsimile: 301-985-4651
Please kindly confirm that you have received this message. If you have
other
questions that were not addressed in this message, please do not hesitate
to
contact me at 202-473-3294 through July 12, or by e-mail at
[email protected]. Once again, we are delighted that you will be
speaking
at PREM Week '99, and we look forward to meeting you soon!
Sincerely,
Mary Santos
Speakers Coordinator
Vivian Hon
Economist
Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM)- Economic Policy Unit
World Bank, Rm MC4-154
1818 H St. NW, Washington, DC 20433
Tel: (202)473-3429
Fax: (202)522-2530
- univofmd.doc - Program0703.doc
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END ATTACHMENT 2
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Audrey Choi ( CN=Audrey Choi/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
CREATION DATE/TIME: 6-JUL-1999 08:23:31.00
SUBJECT: staff meeting @ 9:30 this morning
TO: Yu-Chin Chen (CN=Yu-Chin Chen/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: William H. Gillespie ( CN=William H. Gillespie/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Victoria A. Greenfield ( CN=Victoria A. Greenfield/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Susan P. Clements ( CN=Susan P. Clements/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Steven N. Braun ( CN=Steven N. Braun/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Stephen F. Lin ( CN=Stephen F. Lin/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Sarah L. Rosen ( CN=Sarah L. Rosen/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Sandra F. Daigle ( CN=Sandra F. Daigle/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Ryan D. Edwards ( CN=Ryan D. Edwards/OU=CEA/O=EOP [CEA])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Rosalind V. Rasin ( CN=Rosalind V. Rasin/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Robin L. Lumsdaine ( CN=Robin L. Lumsdaine/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Rebecca M. Blank ( CN=Rebecca M. Blank/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Raymond P. Guiteras ( CN=Raymond P. Guiteras/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Quindi C. Franco ( CN=Quindi C. Franco/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Paul K. Hoffmeister ( CN=Paul K. Hoffmeister/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Nouriel Roubini ( CN=Nouriel Roubini/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Noah Y. Weisberger ( CN=Noah Y. Weisberger/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Michele Jolin ( CN=Michele Jolin/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Michael S. Kosoff ( CN=Michael S. Kosoff/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Michael J. Brien ( CN=Michael J. Brien/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Mary Fibich ( CN=Mary Fibich/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Mary E. Jones ( CN=Mary E. Jones/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Mary A. Thomas ( CN=Mary A. Thomas/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Mark N. Levine ( CN=Mark N. Levine/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Lisa D. Branch ( CN=Lisa D. Branch/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Linda A. Reilly ( CN=Linda A. Reilly/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Leigh L. Linden ( CN=Leigh L. Linden/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Joseph E. Aldy ( CN=Joseph E. Aldy/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: John L. Goldie ( CN=John L. Goldie/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: John G. Fernald ( CN=John G. Fernald/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: John C. Williams ( CN=John C. Williams/OU=CEA/O=EOP [CEA])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Janet L. Yellen ( CN=Janet L. Yellen/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Jacob M. Studley ( CN=Jacob M. Studley/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Howard A. Shelanski ( CN=Howard A. Shelanski/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Francine P. Obermiller ( CN=Francine P. Obermiller/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Elise H. Golan ( CN=Elise H. Golan/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Douglas W. Elmendorf ( CN=Douglas W. Elmendorf/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Douglas V. Almond ( CN=Douglas V. Almond/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Cordelia W. Reimers ( CN=Cordelia W. Reimers/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Christel M. Sice ( CN=Christel M. Sice/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Charles F. Stone ( CN=Charles F. Stone/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Catherine H. Furlong ( CN=Catherine H. Furlong/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Carol L. Capece ( CN=Carol L. Capece/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Burth G. Lopez ( CN=Burth G. Lopez/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Brian A. Amorosi ( CN=Brian A. Amorosi/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Audrey Choi ( CN=Audrey Choi/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Andrew R. Feldman ( CN=Andrew R. Feldman/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Alice H. Williams ( CN=Alice H. Williams/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Aaron D. Tracy ( CN=Aaron D. Tracy/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Good morning. Hope everyone had a good holiday weekend. We will have a
staff meeting this morning at 9:30.
Special attraction: Janet, Becky and Robert are all here today!
Withdrawal/Redaction Marker
Clinton Library
DOCUMENT NO.
SUBJECT/TITLE
DATE
RESTRICTION
AND TYPE
004. email
To R. Lawrence, re Vitae [nonselection] (16 pages)
07/06/1999
P6/b(6)
COLLECTION:
Clinton Presidential Records
Automated Records Management System
CEA (Robert Z. Lawrence)
OA/Box Number: 950000
FOLDER TITLE:
[06/29/1999 - 07/08/1999]
2014-0316-F
wr10748
RESTRICTION CODES
Presidential Records Act - [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)]
Freedom of Information Act - 15 U.S.C. 552(b)]
P1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRAJ
b(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA]
P2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA
b(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of
P3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA]
an agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA]
P4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or
b(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA]
financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA]
b(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial
P5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President
information |(b)(4) of the FOIA]
and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA
b(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
P6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA]
personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA
b(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement
purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA]
C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed
b(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of
of gift.
financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA]
PRM. Personal record misfile defined in accordance with 44 U.S.C.
b(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information
2201(3).
concerning wells [(b)(9) of the FOIA]
RR. Document will be reviewed upon request.
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Raymond P. Guiteras ( CN=Raymond P. Guiteras/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
CREATION DATE/TIME: 6-JUL-1999 15:30:15.00
SUBJECT: weekly irup pester
TO: Charles F. Stone ( CN=Charles F. Stone/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Quindi C. Franco ( CN=Quindi C. Franco/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Nouriel Roubini ( CN=Nouriel Roubini/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Raymond P. Guiteras ( CN=Raymond P. Guiteras/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Elise H. Golan ( CN=Elise H. Golan/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOF [ CEA ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
any new ideas?
Raymond
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: [email protected] ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN ])
CREATION DATE/TIME: 6-JUL-1999 13:35:03.00
SUBJECT: Notes for PREM Week Speakers
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
CC: Lisa D. Branch ( CN=Lisa D. Branch/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Dear Dr. Lawrence:
Attached are some general information on PREM week that you might find
useful in
your preparation for the talk. The attached also contains registration
information, the latest program and directions to the Inn and Conference
Center
of the University of Maryland.
Please note that if you would like us to make copies of your handouts or
transparencies, we would be most grateful if you could send them to us by
cob
Fri, July 9.
If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact me at
(202)473-3429
or by Email.
Many thanks.
Forwarded by Vivian Y.N. Hon/Person/World Bank on
07/06/99 01:16 PM
Mary Santos
07/04/99 04:53 AM
To: [email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet, Junaid
Kamal
Ahmad, William Allan/Washington/Imf@Imf, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet, Gloria
Bartoli,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet, Robert
R.
Blake, [email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, Rekha N. Dayal, Peter N. Dean,
[email protected]@Internet., [email protected]@Internet,
Charles J.
A. Draper, [email protected]@Intenet,
[email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet, Ali
Hashim, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet, Ravi
Kanbur, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, Richard S. Newfarmer,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, Garry Pursell,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, Nigel Roberts, Naazneen Barma,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@hnternet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Intenet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, [email protected]@Internet,
[email protected]@Internet, Joseph E. Stiglitz, Marisela Montoliu
Munoz, Phyllis R. Pomerantz, Masood Ahmed Prmvp, Jack
Boorman/Washington/Imf@Imf, Paul Collier, [email protected]@Internet,
Roberta V. Gatti, Wendy Cunningham, Constantijn A. Claessens, Patrick
Thomas Honohan, Ashoka Mody, Sanjay Pradhan,
[email protected]@Internet,
Marcelo Selowsky, Pierre Landell-Mills, Kenichi Ohashi, M. Helen
Sutch,
Shantayanan Devarajan, Charles Humphreys, Ulrich Zachau, Daniel
Kaufmann,
Vinod Thomas, William J. Martin, Nader Aghili, Abdolreza Farivari,
Maria
Cristina Germany, Ronnie W. Hammad, Tariqul I. Khan, Christian E.
Petersen, Thirumalai G. Srinivasan, Elizabeth M. Morris-Hughes,
Donald
Mathieson/Washington/Imf@Imf, Ulrich Zachau, Rene R. Ruivivar,
Fahrettin
Yagci, Martin Ravallion, Jeffrey S. Hammer, Jeni G. Klugman,
[email protected]@Internet, Keith E. Hansen, Ruben Lamdany, John
Page,
Joanne Salop, Uri B. Dadush, Dipak Dasgupta, Ritva S. Reinikka,
Pauline F.
Earp, Katherine Sierra, Deepa Narayan, Guillermo Perry, Adam
Wagstaff,
Gordon Betcherman, Stephen Commins, Judith A. Edstrom, Margaret Ellen
Grosh, James Anderson, Randi Susan Ryterman, Pablo Zoido-Lobaton,
Jerry A.
Lebo, Thampil Pankaj, Maryvonne Plessis-Fraissard, Soniya Carvalho,
Shamit
Chakravarti, Erica Felix-Castaneda, Sarah F. Cliffe, Lant Hayward
Pritchett, Aart C. Kraay, Jakob Svensson, Vijayendra Rao, Andres Rigo
Sureda, Peter Heller/Washington/Imf@Imf, Helen Saxenian, Robert R.
Blake,
Charles J. A. Draper, Garry Pursell, Bartek K. Kaminski, Delfin Sia
Go,
Michael Lewin, Jos Verbeek, Adam Wagstaff, Helga W. Muller, Judy M.
O'connor, Ali Hashim, Gershon Feder, Christiaan N. Grootaert, Sheoli
Pargal, Gita Gopal, Rekha N. Dayal, Adoracion B. Mojica-Caliboso, N.
Roberto Zagha, Robert Holzmann, John A. Dixon, Gunnar S. Eskeland,
Charles
M. Feinstein, Mansour Farsad, Jagdish K. Gill, Ronnie Das Gupta,
Djordjija
B. Petkoski, Myla Taylor Williams
cc: Prem Week/Service, Cynthia D. Herlaar, Ann Duncan, Andrew Parker,
Sharon
D. Faulkner, Mariza Guimaraes, Shahrokh Fardoust, John H. Johnson,
Susan
E. Wilder, Michael Lewin, Diana S. Walker, Maria Ionata, Ayda Aysun
Yurekli, Brian David Levy, Frederick C. Stapenhurst, Vivian Y.N.
Hon,
Victoria M. Elliott, Farrukh Iqbal, Zoubida Allaoua, Judy L. Baker,
Michelle Riboud, Kirk E. Hamilton, David O. Sewell, Sohail J. Malik,
Anwar
M. Shah, Marnia Lazreg, Amit Dar, Joseph Michael Finger, Jesko S.
Hentschel, Radha Seshagiri, Jeni G. Klugman, Silvana M. Valle, M.
Arlette
Campbell White, Eugene R. Boostrom, Elizabeth Shrader, Caroline
Zwicker,
Ronald E. Myers, Quentin T. Wodon, Hana Polackova, Kene Ezemenari,
Antonio
C. Lim, Wendy E. Wakeman, Richard Adams, Luca Barbone, Caroline
Zwicker,
C. Mark Blackden, Lucia Fort, Ronald L. Johannes, Klaus W. Deininger,
[email protected]@Internet, Punam Chuhan, Claudia Paz
Sepulveda,
Sergio L. Schmukler, Sara Guerschanik Calvo, Carol Gabyzon, Nicole M.
Fults, Miria A. Pigato, Jennie I. Litvack, Deborah L. Wetzel, Nick
Manning, Barbara Nunberg, Andrew D. Mason, Susan R. Razzaz, Michelle
Riboud, Faezeh S. Foroutan, Malcolm R. G. Holmes, Richard E.
Messick, Anna
Monica Hansson, Alison S. Panton, Sonia A. Ainsworth, Lydia Kabwiku,
Phyllis R. Pomerantz, Mallika Krishnamurthy, Sahr Kpundeh,
[email protected]@Internet Giovanna Prennushi, Simone Cecchini,
Karen
Sirker, Julian A. Lampietti, Gurushri N. Swamy, Margaret Ellen Grosh,
Kalanidhi Subbarao, Faezeh S. Foroutan, Ronnie Das Gupta, Adam
Wagstaff,
Davidson R Gwatkin, Rehana Akhtar Khanam/Fo/Ifc, Lyn Squire, Cheryl
W.
Gray, Tripti S. Thomas, Vinaya Swaroop, Djinsinah Husain, Yan
Wang-Wbi,
Peter R. Fallon
Subject: Notes for PREM Week Speakers--Please confirm receipt of this
message.
PREM Week '99: Fighting Poverty in the 21st Century
Notes for PREM Week Speakers
Thank you very much for agreeing to be one of our speakers at this year's
PREM
Week. These notes are designed to provide you with some background on the
PREM
Network; the organization of the various sessions at PREM Week '99; and
some
suggestions for the content of your presentation.
The PREM Network
The World Bank is organized into networks of staff working on particular
areas
of policy. The primary focus of the Poverty Reduction and Economic
Management
(PREM) Network is on how best to assist developing countries reduce poverty
through good economic management, strengthened institutions, effective
governance and by mainstreaming gender issues in development strategies.
PREM Week '99
Our annual PREM Week conference brings together many of the Bank's 800+
staff in
the Network who are heavily involved in the Bank?s policy work, coming from
various disciplines: economics, sociology, political science and
anthropology.
We also expect outside experts in topics on macroeconomic policy, gender,
poverty and the public sector who will join us as panelists and keynote
speakers.
The objectives of the PREM Week are:
ú to enable Bank staff to be more effective in carrying out the Bank's
mission of poverty reduction;
ú to bring participants up to date with the latest developments and
thinking
in PREM's areas of work;
ú to challenge participants to think in innovative ways and to consider
new
approaches to apply in their development work; and
ú to provide opportunities for participants to network with colleagues
An outline of the program of events at PREM Week is attached. Please
ensure
that you know which session you are presenting in and the timing. If you
are in
any doubt about which session you are presenting or the subject matter to
be
covered, please liaise with the Bank staff member coordinating your
session.
PREM Week Sessions: Suggestions for Organization and Content
Feedback from participants at last year's event indicated that the best
sessions
were those that not only covered interesting and relevant subject
material, but
were also well organized in terms of time-management and presentation of
content. We would therefore encourage you to consider the following
points in
preparing and delivering your presentation:
ú Time management: Please aim to arrive at your session room 30 minutes
before your session so you can meet the session Chair and deal with any
last-minute details.
ú As we wish to provide enough time for questions and answers, please
keep
your presentation to the length agreed with your session organizer.
ú Materials: Short handouts for participants are valuable aids to
summarize
your key points and to raise issues that could be discussed by participants
during the question-and-answer part of the session. You are therefore most
welcome to prepare such handouts, which can be reproduced and made
available to
participants at the session. If you wish to do this, please provide us
sufficient time to photocopy the materials by sending them (by e-mail) no
later
than c.o.b. Friday, July 9.
ú Senior Bank staff and others working on your topic are likely to
attend
your session, so you may like to use the opportunity to raise issues for
discussion that you would like to hear reactions to from Bank staff and our
external partners.
ú Audio-Visual Equipment: An overhead projector and flip chart will be
available in every room. If you have any other special presentation needs,
please let me know by c.o.b. Friday, July 9, so we can make the necessary
arrangements.
ú VIP Room: Once you have registered, you are welcome to make use of
VIP Room
to meet with your session organizer who will brief you in more detail
about your
role at PREM Week '99. Please contact your session organizer to check
what time
you should meet him/her in the VIP Room.
ú The VIP Room is equipped with a telephone line for local calls, a fax
machine, and computer that you are welcome to use during your free time.
ú Do not hesitate to contact PREM Week organizing staff who can answer
all
your questions with regard to logistics and general organization (Contact:
Mary
Santos 202-473-3294 or Cynthia Herlaar 202-458-5234)
Logistical Information for PREM Week '99
When and where will PREM Week be held?
PREM Week '99 will be held at the Inn and Conference Center of the
University of
Maryland University College, located on University Boulevard at Adelphi
Road,
College Park, Maryland 20742.
The event will convene on Tuesday, July 13 at 9:15AM and will conclude at
5:30PM
on Wednesday, July 14, followed by a Reception from 5:30PM to 7:00PM
Attached below is an area map with specific directions to the University of
Maryland. Please use it as your guide to the Center. You will receive a
room
map of the actual conference site upon your arrival.
(See attached file: univofmd.doc)
How to get to PREM Week
If you are traveling from Washington, DC, local transportation to the
Center
will be available. A bus will leave from the front of the Main Complex
(MC)
building of the World Bank Group on 1818 H Street, NW at 8:00AM on both
days of
the conference. The bus will leave the conference site between 6:00PM and
6:30PM on Tuesday, July 13, and at 7:00PM on Wednesday, July 14.
If you are traveling by Metro, there will be a shuttle service between the
Inn
and Conference Center and the Prince George?s Plaza Metro station on the
Green
Line in operation from 7:30AM to 6:15PM on Tuesday, July 13, and from
8:30AM to
7:15PM on Wednesday, July 14. The shuttle ride takes about 10-15
minutes. The
shuttle schedule between the Inn and Conference Center and the Prince
George?s
Plaza Metro station is included in the "univofmd.doc" attachment.
Registration
To register for PREM Week, please come to the special Speakers' Table
which will
be located at the front lobby of the Inn and Conference Center. You can
also
pick-up your per diem and/or honorarium (if applicable) at the Speakers'
Table.
Registration hours are as follows:
Tuesday, July 13
8:00AM -- 4:30PM
Wednesday, July 14 8:30AM -- 4:00PM
The Latest PREM Week '99 Schedule
The latest PREM Week '99 schedule is attached below. You will receive
information on your travel/hotel arrangements, your sessions, and your per
diem
and/or honorarium (if applicable) in a separate message by cob Monday,
July 5.
(See attached file: Program0703.doc)
What services and facilities are available to me at the Center?
There will be a Message Center at the entrance of the Inn and Conference
Center
to help participants make contact with each other. Please note that this
service is not intended for official or confidential communications. The
Inn
and Conference Center and PREM Week Organizing Team cannot be held
responsible
for ensuring that recipients receive messages, or for forwarding
uncollected
messages.
The VIP Room will be equipped with a telephone line for local calls, fax
machine, and computer that you are welcome to use during your free time.
The Inn and Conference Center has a business center that can handle
facsimile
and courier services, as well as limited postal services. Business hours
are
from 7:00AM to 7:00PM
There are a few banks in the proximity of the Center which will be able to
handle currency exchanges. Business hours are from 9:00AM to 4:00PM
What if I want to ship materials that I will need for PREM Week '99?
You may send them to the PREM Advisory Service, World Bank, Room MC4-501,
1818 H
Street, Washington DC 20433 Attn: Cynthia Herlaar. Please make sure that
your
name clearly appears on your shipment. We should receive this shipment by
July
9, so that we can move them with the rest of our conference materials to
the Inn
and Conference Center.
Materials may also be sent directly to The Inn and Conference Center,
University
of Maryland University College, University Boulevard at Adelphi Road,
College
Park MD 20742-1610, (301)985-7300. However, they should not arrive before
July
12 at the conference site.
Who do I contact if I have other questions or if I need further assistance?
Here are some useful contact numbers for your reference:
+
+
Phone/Fax
Location
+
PREM Week Office
Through July 12, 1999:
202-473-3294
Fax 202-522-3903
From July 13-14, 1999:
Room: 1101
301-985-4652
Fax: 985-4651
VIP Room
301-985-4656 or
301-985-4655
Registration/Info Desk
301-985-4657
Main Concourse
+
Speakers' Table
301-985-4658
Main Concourse
+
+
If you need further assistance with conference
arrangements and procedures,
Cynthia Herlaar, Conference Organizer for PREM Week, may be reached as
follows:
Through July 9, 1999
Telephone: 202-458-5234
Facsimile: 202-522-3096
E-mail: [email protected]
From July 13-14, 1999
Telephone: 301-985-4652
Facsimile: 301-985-4651
Please kindly confirm that you have received this message. If you have
other
questions that were not addressed in this message, please do not hesitate
to
contact me at 202-473-3294 through July 12, or by e-mail at
[email protected]. Once again, we are delighted that you will be
speaking
at PREM Week '99, and we look forward to meeting you soon!
Sincerely,
Mary Santos
Speakers Coordinator
Vivian Hon
Economist
Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM)- Economic Policy Unit
World Bank, Rm MC4-154
1818 H St. NW, Washington, DC 20433
Tel: (202)473-3429
Fax: (202)522-2530
- univofmd.doc - Program0703.doc
ATTACHMENT 1
ATT CREATION TIME/DATE: 0 00:00:00.00
TEXT:
Unable to convert ARMS_EXT:[ATTACH.D33]ARMS24538619C.136 to ASCII,
The following is a HEX DUMP:
END ATTACHMENT
1
ATTACHMENT 2
ATT CREATION TIME/DATE: 0 00:00:00.00
TEXT:
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The following is a HEX DUMP:
END ATTACHMENT 2
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Constance J. Bowers ( CN=Constance J. Bowers/OU=OMB/O=EOP [ OMB
)
CREATION DATE/TIME: 6-JUL-1999 17:11:19.00
SUBJECT: LRM CJB83 - - EDUCATION Report on HR Tax Reconciliation Bill - FY 2000
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
CC: Ronald E. Jones ( CN=Ronald E. Jones/OU=OMB/O=EOP@EOP [ OMB 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Please review the attached, or forward along to anyone else in CEA who may
have an interest. Please respond directly to Ron Jones. Thanks.
Forwarded by Constance J. Bowers/OMB/EOP on
07/06/99 05:10 PM
From: Ronald E. Jones on 07/06/99 03:41:34 PM
Record Type: Record
To:
[email protected] @ inet, Brian A. Barreto/OPD/EOP@EOP
cc:
See the distribution list at the bottom of this message
Subject:
LRM CJB83 - - EDUCATION Report on HR
Tax
Reconciliation
Bill - FY 2000
This draft report addresses a House Ways and Means Committee markup of tax
legislation scheduled for July 14th. Note: In the letter, Secretary
Riley states that he would recommend that the President veto such
legislation if it fails to include the President's school modernization
tax credit.
Please provide comments on this draft report by:
10:00 a.m, Thursday, July 8th.
click here for text of letter:
Forwarded by Ronald E. Jones/OMB/EOP on 07/06/99
03:17 PM
LRM ID: CJB83
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
Washington, D.C. 20503-0001
Tuesday, July 6, 1999
LEGISLATIVE REFERRAL MEMORANDUM
TO:
Legislative Liaison Officer - See Distribution
below
FROM:
Richard E. Green (for) Assistant Director for
Legislative Reference
OMB CONTACT: Ronald E. Jones
PHONE: (202)395-3386 FAX: (202)395-3109
SUBJECT:
EDUCATION Report on HR Tax Reconciliation Bill - FY
2000
DEADLINE:
10:00 a.m. Thursday, July 8, 1999
In accordance with OMB Circular A-19, OMB requests the views of your
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COMMENTS: This draft report addresses a House Ways and Means Committee
markup of tax legislation scheduled for July 14th. In the letter, Sec.
Riley states that he would recommend that the President veto such
legislation if it fails to include the President's school modernization
tax credit.
DISTRIBUTION LIST
AGENCIES:
118-TREASURY - Richard S. Carro - (202) 622-0650
76-National Economic Council - Brian A. Barreto - (202) 456-6630
EOP:
William G. Dauster
Barbara Chow
Joseph J. Minarik
Charles E. Kieffer
Charles M. Brain
Broderick Johnson
Adrienne C. Erbach
Robert L. Nabors
Sandra Yamin
Bruce N. Reed
Jonathan H. Schnur
Tanya E. Martin
Bethany Little
Brian V. Kennedy
Mary C. Barth
Barry White
Wayne Upshaw
Lorenzo Rasetti
James J. Jukes
Richard E. Green
Constance J. Bowers
LRM ID: CJB83 SUBJECT: EDUCATION Report on HR Tax
Reconciliation Bill - FY 2000
RESPONSE TO
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To:
William G. Dauster/OPD/EOP@EOP
Barbara Chow/OMB/EOP@EOP
Joseph J. Minarik/OMB/EOP@EOP
Charles E. Kieffer/OMB/EOP@EOP
Charles M. Brain/WHO/EOP@EOP
Broderick Johnson/WHO/EOP@EOP
Adrienne C. Erbach/OMB/EOP@EOP
Robert L. Nabors/OMB/EOP@EOP
Sandra Yamin/OMB/EOP@EOP
Bruce N. Reed/OPD/EOP@EOP
Jonathan H. Schnur/OPD/EOP@EOP
Tanya E. Martin/OPD/EOP@EOP
Bethany Little/OPD/EOP@EOP
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Constance J. Bowers/OMB/EOP@EOP
[email protected] @ inet
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1
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Yu-Chin Chen ( CN=Yu-Chin Chen/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA])
CREATION DATE/TIME: 6-JUL-1999 16:08:09.00
SUBJECT: I am here
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [CEA])
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Hi!
I am here now, reading over piles of memos and trying to figure out more
what this is all about. I will stop by to see you at some point?
Yu-chin
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
CREATION DATE/TIME: 6-JUL-1999 15:21:01.00
SUBJECT: Phone Message from Catherine Shaw
TO: [email protected] ( [email protected] @ inet [ UNKNOWN ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Forwarded by Robert Z. Lawrence/CEA/EOP on 07/06/99
03:20 PM
From: Francine P. Obermiller on 07/06/99 10:50:07 AM
Record Type: Record
To:
Robert Z. Lawrence/CEA/EOP@EOP
cc:
While You Were Out
While You Were Out
Contact:
of:
Phone:
FAX:
Catherine Shaw
603-447-8913
Message:
Contact: Catherine Shaw
Company:
Phone: 603-447-8913
FAX:
Message:
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Francine P. Obermiller ( CN=Francine P. Obermiller/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
CREATION DATE/TIME: 6-JUL-1999 13:25:19.00
SUBJECT: July 12-Lunch w/Ted Truman
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
CC: Lisa D. Branch ( CN=Lisa D. Branch/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Ted Truman cannot make lunch on Fri, July 9. I rescheduled lunch with him
for you on Monday, July 12, 12:00noon, at the White House Mess. He will
come to your office first.
Lisa: I have cleared him in
POC: Clara at 622-1270
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Howard A. Shelanski ( CN=Howard A. Shelanski/OU=CEA/O=EOP [CEA])
CREATION DATE/TIME: 7-JUL-1999 20:38:38.00
SUBJECT: USTR meeting
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP @ EOP [ CEA ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
The judge has ordered us to keep deliberating despite a deadlock that has
remained since yesterday. So I must again be in court tomorrow morning
and as long as he keeps us there. I have tentatively arranged to meet
with Ron Lorentzen of USTR at 4 pm, in the hope we will be discharged at
least for the day by then. We plan to meet in my office. If that time
works for you, we could come over to your office. I will try to get in
touch with you tomorrow during our breaks to discuss my thoughts.
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Francine P. Obermiller ( CN=Francine P. Obermiller/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ]
)
CREATION DATE/TIME: 7-JUL-1999 12:35:47.00
SUBJECT: Phone Message from Janet Currie
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP | CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
CC: Lisa D. Branch ( CN=Lisa D. Branch/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Contact: Janet CurrieCompany: Phone: 310-206-8380FAX: Message:
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
CREATION DATE/TIME: 7-JUL-1999 14:59:55.00
SUBJECT: Re: July 8-Lunch w/August Schumacher
TO: Francine P. Obermiller ( CN=Francine P. Obermiller/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
We should get Victoria and Elise to come along.
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
CREATION DATE/TIME: 7-JUL-1999 15:11:03.00
SUBJECT: Re: World Development Report 1999/2000
TO: [email protected] ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
I'm not sure if I should thankyou, but thanks.
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
CREATION DATE/TIME: 7-JUL-1999 08:55:19.00
SUBJECT: Re: I am here
TO: Yu-Chin Chen ( CN=Yu-Chin Chen/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA])
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
You can drop by this morning.
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Francine P. Obermiller ( CN=Francine P. Obermiller/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
CREATION DATE/TIME: 7-JUL-1999 11:05:28.00
SUBJECT: July 9-friday with martin
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Rebecca M. Blank ( CN=Rebecca M. Blank/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Per Audrey's request, I have put a meeting on your calendar for Fri, July
9, 2:00pm, with Martin Baily, Janet, and Audrey, in Janet's office.
Forwarded by Francine P. Obermiller/CEA/EOP on
07/07/99 11:04 AM
Audrey Choi
07/07/99 10:44:47 AM
Record Type: Record
To: Alice H. Williams/CEA/EOP@EOP, Lisa D. Branch/CEA/EOP@EOP,
Sandra F. Daigle/CEA/EOP@EOP, Francine P. Obermiller/CEA/EOP@EOP
cc:
Subject:
friday with martin
Would this friday at 2 pm work for becky, janet, and robert to get
together with martin??
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Steven N. Braun ( CN=Steven N. Braun/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
CREATION DATE/TIME: 7-JUL-1999 19:25:11.00
SUBJECT: Dave Wyss (DRI) will be speaking today (Thursday) at 11:00 am in NEOB 9104
TO: Janet L. Yellen ( CN=Janet L. Yellen/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Ryan D. Edwards ( CN=Ryan D. Edwards/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Charles F. Stone ( CN=Charles F. Stone/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP. [ CEA ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
CC: Rebecca M. Blank ( CN=Rebecca M. Blank/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
about how he sees the macroeconomy.
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Steven N. Braun ( CN=Steven N. Braun/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
CREATION DATE/TIME: 7-JUL-1999 09:54:05.00
SUBJECT: Morning Meeting for 07/07/99
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [CEA])
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Forwarded by Steven N. Braun/CEA/EOP on 07/07/99
09:53 AM
[email protected]
07/07/99 09:04:40 AM
Record Type: Record
To:
cc:
Subject: Morning Meeting for 07/07/99
NOTICE: Forwarding this proprietary email report constitutes violation of
United States and international copyright laws, and will be pursued to the
full extent of the law.
Medley Global Advisors 212-219-9096
(See attached file: mmjul7.pdf)
- mmjul7.pdf
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1
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Francine P. Obermiller ( CN=Francine P. Obermiller/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
CREATION DATE/TIME: 7-JUL-1999 15:02:00.00
SUBJECT: Re: July 8-Lunch w/August Schumacher
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA])
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Do you want me to invite Victoria and Elise?
Or, do you first want me to ask Schumacher's office if it's ok to bring
them?
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
CREATION DATE/TIME: 7-JUL-1999 15:10:12.00
SUBJECT: Re: July 8-Lunch w/August Schumacher
TO: Francine P. Obermiller ( CN=Francine P. Obermiller/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
They must come. Indeed, they were invited. So just let them know.
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: [email protected] ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN ])
CREATION DATE/TIME: 7-JUL-1999 15:06:43.00
SUBJECT: World Development Report 1999/2000
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Robert,
My colleagues and I met with the Office of the US Executive Director this
morning. Ms. Piercy's adviser
had concerns about the somewhat critical stance the WDR is taking towards
antidumping. We had a
spirited discussion. and I politely suggested that they might benefit from
discussing the matter with you.
Given the fraught nature of discussions on antidumping, I thought it
appropriate
to give you a "heads up".
Warm regards,
Simon
Simon J. Evenett
The World Development Report 1999/2000
Room MC2--335
The World Bank
1818 H Street NW
Washington DC 20433
USA
Tel: +1 202 473 9539
Fax: +1 202 522 0056
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Francine P. Obermiller ( CN=Francine P. Obermiller/OU=CEA/O=EOP [CEA])
CREATION DATE/TIME: 7-JUL-1999 11:52:34.00
SUBJECT: July 14-Lunch w/Melinda Kimble, et al
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
CC: Joseph E. Aldy ( CN=Joseph E. Aldy/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA
READ:UNKNOWN
CC: Lisa D. Branch ( CN=Lisa D. Branch/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP CEA
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
I spoke to Lilly, in Melinda Kimble's office, re lunch with Melinda
Kimble, Dick Morgenstern, and Joe Aldy.
We scheduled it for Wed, July 14, at 12:30pm since it was the only day the
Ms. Kimble had available that week, and the fact that she will be gone the
following week. Although you have a weekly NEC Katzen's meeting on for
1:00pm on Wednesdays, it doesn't always occur, so I thought you would want
to have this meeting before too much time went by.
The place is to be determined.
Lilly is on 647-3004
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Francine P. Obermiller ( CN=Francine P. Obermiller/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
CREATION DATE/TIME: 8-JUL-1999 13:47:33.00
SUBJECT: Phone Message from Howard Shelanski
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Contact: Howard ShelanskiCompany: Phone: FAX: Message: The jury is still sitting. He doesn't know whether the
4:00pm meeting will still be possible. He will check in later to let you know one way or the other.
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Francine P. Obermiller ( CN=Francine P. Obermiller/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ]
)
CREATION DATE/TIME: 8-JUL-1999 10:21:12.00
SUBJECT: July 13-NEC Dep Mtg on APEC
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
CC: Lisa D. Branch ( CN=Lisa D. Branch/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP I CEA )
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Sharon, from NEC, called to invite you to an NEC Deputies Meeting on APEC,
on Tuesday, July 13, 5:00pm, Place TBD.
It is a principals, plus one.
Who do you want to take along?
POC: Sharon
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: John G. Fernald ( CN=John G. Fernald/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA
CREATION DATE/TIME: 8-JUL-1999 15:01:34.00
SUBJECT: Trade
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [CEA])
READ:UNKNOWN
CC: Raymond P. Guiteras ( CN=Raymond P. Guiteras/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP CEA
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
In 1997 and 1998, U.S. trade (X+M) relative to GDP was at its highest
point in this century, and possibly ever. The ratio actually peaked in
1997, at least using goods and services (NIPA measure). The ratio of
trade relative to merchandise value-added (agriculture, mining, and
manufacturing) is almost definitely higher than ever before, and appears
to be at least twice its level a century ago.
In Historical Statistics, data on trade in goods and services go back to
1790. But the big data question marks are the lack of annual data on GDP
before 1890 (I believe there may be estimates around, but not in the
Historical Statistics), and the lack of any GDP data before 1870. There
is an outside chance that trade relative to GDP was around the same level
for some year in the 1870s, although for the decade over all it was lower
than now. The value-added series exists for selected years back to 1839.
Before 1870, there is a value-added series for major sectors, which
unfortunately seems to have an uncertain relationship with GDP. It
appears likely that trade relative to GDP is now higher than then, but not
certain.
Feenstra (JEP, Fall 98) reports cross-country data on merchandise trade
relative to GDP for selected years from 1890 to 1990 for major countries.
He also reports ratios relative to "merchandise value added," by which he
seems to mean value-added in agriculture, mining, and manufacturing. He
says, if one focuses on merchandise trade relative to value-added,
the world is much more integrated today than at any time during the past
century" (p31).
That statement is less clear relative to GDP. In particular, it is not
obvious that the world was more open in 1990 than 1980, although in the
1990s there has presumably been a substantial increase in trade, as shows
up in the U.S. data.
I would note that by combining the numbers I found on U.S. trade relative
to merchandise value added from 1839 to 1889 with Feenstra's numbers from
1890 onwards, the U.S. ratio is clearly higher now than ever before. (The
value of merchandise value -added relative to GDP has fallen over time,
which is why we don't know with greater certainty the value of trade
relative to GDP.)
With some more work, we may be able to pin this down further.
John
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Francine P. Obermiller ( CN=Francine P. Obermiller/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
CREATION DATE/TIME: 8-JUL-1999 18:33:02.00
SUBJECT: Phone Message from Francine
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Contact: FrancineCompany: Phone: FAX: Message: Please let me know when you're back so I can get that confidential
document back to put in the safe. (I didn't see it on your desk.)
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Foreign Policy Research Inst <[email protected]> ( Foreign Policy Research Inst <[email protected]> [
UNKNOWN ])
CREATION DATE/TIME: 8-JUL-1999 18:43:08.00
SUBJECT: Peacefacts - The New Israeli Government by Harvey Sicherman
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Peacefacts
A Briefing on the Middle East Peace Process
Volume 6, Number 2
July 1999
ISRAEL PICKS A GENERAL
AND A GENERAL PICKS A GOVERNMENT
By Harvey Sicherman
Ehud Barak's victory over Benjamin Netanyahu in the May 17
Israeli election has been interpreted widely to mean the
triumph of a secular, Oslo-supporting majority over a
religious and nationalist opposition. But this fails to
explain either the large increase in votes for Shas, the
most controversial religious party, or Barak's deliberate
quest for a very broad coalition, including those who
dislike Oslo. A better understanding may be obtained by
analyzing three elements: the actual election results,
including the Knesset; the choice of coalition partners; and
Barak's diplomatic challenges, including U.S.-Israeli
relations.
1. ELECTION RESULTS: THE ONE AND THE MANY
The current Israeli political system, combining a direct
vote for a prime minister and a separate tally for
parliament was intended to diminish the ability of smaller
parties to extort favors from coalitions with narrow
pluralities. This election, the second under the system,
again had the opposite effect. While Barak devastated the
once invulnerable Netanyahu by a margin of 56% to 44% (52%
to 48% in the Jewish vote), he must govern from a fractured,
factional Knesset. The two major parties, Labor and Likud,
muster together only 45 of 120 seats versus 66 in 1996 and
76 in 1992. Likud's spectacular drop from 32 to 19 should
not disguise Labor's drop from 34 to 26. Labor's real total
may have been even lower because the party ran as a mini-
coalition called "One Israel" and included the former Likud
David Levy's Gesher (Sephardim) and Meimad's moderate
religious, each of whom probably added a seat or two.
The contest for prime minister was distinguished by the
"American consultants" who directed both campaigns at the
strategic level and emphasized the importance of polls in
shaping the candidates' public image. Barak, a highly
decorated but shy former chief of staff, abandoned his
public persona of the patient analyst and with great
discipline preached the slogans of integrity, unity, and
peace in carefully contrived settings. He made but three
pledges: no deals with other parties before the elections;
ending the blanket draft exemption for religious school
students; and an exit from Lebanon within a year's time.
That left Netanyahu to grapple with his own "negatives,"
reinforced by attacks from the new Center Party, headed by
the former defense minister Yitzhak Mordechai. The Likud
itself split over Netanyahu's record and he could not
convincingly attack Barak as soft on security.
The popular vote "against" Netanyahu, while it also harmed
the Likud, did not repudiate all of his coalition partners.
Natan Sharansky's Yisrael B'Aliyah Party (and the Russians
in general) held their own. Most spectacular, the Sephardic
religious party Shas its leader, Aryeh Deri, sentenced to
four years for bribery went from 10 to 17, borne aloft
on communal resentment and the party's social services for
the needy. But the larger religious vote also called forth
a counter-reaction. Shinui tapped secular resentment of
religious party prerogatives through the inimitable mouth of
TV personality Tommy Lapid and earned six seats. Still, if
one tallies together the Left-Center at 57 seats and the
Right-Religious at 53 (26+27), the Israeli political
landscape looks familiar enough: half the population tugged
toward the socialist-secular Labor bloc and half tugged
toward the nationalist-religious bloc.
2. ODD COUPLINGS
Barak's big victory over Netanyahu did not quickly translate
into a government. The new prime minister, educated in
Kibbutz and Army, is no post-Zionist, but he is post-Rabin
and sought to avoid the narrow coalition approach that
bedeviled his mentor. Barak took his time and his own
counsel, quickly lowering the political temperature. But the
broad "healing" coalition, said to number over eighty seats
that was his first objective, fell victim to a hard reality:
not all of the Likud, the second largest party smarting from
its defeat, would follow Ariel Sharon into the government
and, in any event, Sharon was demanding control of the peace
process. That left the third largest party, Shas, still
loyal to its jail-bound leader, Aryeh Deri. Taking Shas
even without Deri invited major trouble from the secularists
and the Russians, who deeply resented Shas control of the
Interior ministry under Netanyahu. But Shas offered Barak a
freer hand than the National Religious Party on settlements
and peace negotiations.
For over a month the Prime Minister-elect worked the flanks
of his potential coalition partners in order to strengthen
the center, threatening at one point to create a minority
government if necessary. In the end, however, he succeeded
in assembling a broad coalition numbering seventy-five
including Shas and two other religious parties that can also
rely on sixteen more outside votes (10 Arab, 6 Shinui) to
backstop peace deals. Most remarkably, half the new
government is drawn from parties and personalities who also
participated in Netanyahu's cabinet. Following all of this
"outreach," Barak will now have to perform some "in-reach"
to assuage clearly unhappy Labor politicians, who rejected
his nominee for Knesset speaker, choosing instead the
veteran Avraham Burg. Others, such as Nobel Laureate and
former Prime Minister Shimon Peres, will resist assignment
to honorable but marginal posts.
Barak's key ministerial appointments suggest a policy of
tightly controlled change. The Prime Minister, like Rabin,
will serve as his own Defense minister. He has also
assembled a security management team of former military men
that will relegate the new-old Foreign minister David Levy
to a secondary role. Natan Sharansky, his new Interior
minister from the Russian Yisrael B'Aliyah party, has to
issue identity cards with religious affiliation; he will
face the country's most pressing religious problem, which is
not the demands of Conservative and Reform rabbis for
recognition but rather the 250,000 Russians not Jewish by
any standard but who want to be full Israelis. Barak's
Education minister, Yossi Sarid from the secular Meretz
party, presumably will not afflict him the way the
religious-baiting Shulamit Aloni hurt Rabin. The biggest
surprise turned out to be Barak's choice of Avraham "Beiga"
Shohat for the Treasury, a repeat from Rabin's time with a
penchant for overspending. This may presage a sharp struggle
with the anti-inflationary policy of the Israel Central
Bank, which, along with budget cuts, has been widely blamed
for Israel's recent slow growth and high unemployment.
3. TWO MISTRUSTS AND ONE MAP
Barak's desire for a broader coalition derived not only from
his analysis that after the Netanyahu years the country
needed to "come together" (peace at home) but also because
of international challenges (peace abroad).
Barak faces immediately two tricky situations. He inherits
Netanyahu's legacy of mistrust with both Arafat and Clinton.
The breakdown of serious Israeli-Palestinian negotiations
over the last three years has sucked Washington into a
powerful mediation that at Wye became a substitute for
direct dealing between the parties. More recently, to head
off Arafat's threat to declare unilateral independence,
Clinton has virtually posed as the patron of the Palestinian
state-to-be.
While an advocate of a negotiated settlement with Arafat,
Barak is no great enthusiast for the original Oslo
agreement. As chief of staff, he criticized the security
provisions and later opposed the Oslo II agreement in the
Cabinet because he felt some of its withdrawals would reduce
Israel's leverage on final status talks. Now that the Oslo
process is virtually over, he has an opportunity to make his
own mark.
Barak has begun by advocating a broadly popular map. To the
Palestinians' dismay, he reaffirmed Rabin's four "red
lines:" no return to the 1967 geography; Jerusalem united
under Israeli control; no large-scale removal of Israeli
settlements; and no "modern army" in the Palestinian-
controlled areas. This is, in fact, the commonly shared map
among most Israelis, including the military: Israel
controlling the ridge line and the buffer zone along the
Jordan; its official borders to include some 85% of the
settlers organized into several "blocs"; and the Palestinian
government's military power strictly limited. The great
strength of this map is that it reflects a strong Israeli
consensus. But it is not readily apparent why Arafat would
agree to the "statelet" it gives him. Moreover, the "map"
will force Clinton to clarify his own position: when the
Palestinians begin to complain, is he going to get between
Arafat and Barak or run the risk of stalemate in order to
get the parties to do most of the negotiating themselves?
Then there is the Lebanon-Syrian front. Barak has pledged
to get the Israeli army out of South Lebanon in a year's
time. A barrage of Hezbollah rockets on northern Israel
followed by a heavy Israeli air assault on Lebanese targets
in late June were reminders that this area has now become
Israel's sorest point. The question is whether Barak can fix
Lebanon without also committing Israel to leave the Golan
Heights, making Syria a partner for peace both there and
along the Lebanese border.
Meanwhile, the dance with Damascus has already begun. There
are rumors about a deal nearly struck between Netanyahu and
Assad that would be easy for Barak to pick up; Assad, adding
fuel to the rumors, has refused to join ranks with Arafat,
Mubarak, and Abdullah II of Jordan in a united front; and
both he and Barak exchanged public compliments about each
other. Barak has also emphasized the security aspects of a
Golan deal, playing down the notion of a "warm" peace with a
Syria that does not want it. The Palestinians, fearful that
a Syrian move will preempt the urgency of their case, and
disturbed over further Israeli efforts to complete the ring
of Jewish settlements around Jerusalem, are clearly anxious.
There are rising expectations on all fronts none of which
will tolerate a stalemate for much longer.
CONCLUSION
Ehud Barak begins his journey with the smallest political
base -- 26 seats -- of any Israeli prime minister but with
positions on the Palestinians and Lebanon that resonate
broadly across the political spectrum. After a month of
steady effort, he translated that into a broad coalition
that will be held together more by the Prime Minister
himself than by the weight of the Labor party. The success
of this initial campaign now strengthens him for the next
one: repairing relations with Washington as he tackles
direct negotiations with two Arab leaders -- Arafat and
Assad -- neither of whom wish Israel well. It will be a
struggle on multiple fronts, and the new Prime Minister has
begun by assembling an apparent surplus of domestic
political power.
Harvey Sicherman, Ph.D., is President of the Foreign Policy
Research Institute and a former aide to three U.S.
secretaries of state. He is author of Palestinian Autonomy,
Self-Government, and Peace.
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RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Quindi C. Franco ( CN=Quindi C. Franco/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
CREATION DATE/TIME: 8-JUL-1999 09:14:29.00
SUBJECT: FYI: Bolivia Trip Postponed
TO: Victoria A. Greenfield ( CN=Victoria A. Greenfield/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Audrey Choi ( CN=Audrey Choi/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Janet L. Yellen ( CN=Janet L. Yellen/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
CC: Rosalind V. Rasin ( CN=Rosalind V. Rasin/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
CC: Paul K. Hoffmeister ( CN=Paul K. Hoffmeister/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Apparently the Bolivia trip has been postponed, so Joe will be in the
office on Monday.
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Francine P. Obermiller ( CN=Francine P. Obermiller/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
CREATION DATE/TIME: 8-JUL-1999 08:48:00.00
SUBJECT: Re: July 8-Lunch w/August Schumacher
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA D
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
done
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
CREATION DATE/TIME: 8-JUL-1999 15:16:36.00
SUBJECT: Comments Please.
TO: John G. Fernald ( CN=John G. Fernald/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Victoria A. Greenfield ( CN=Victoria A. Greenfield/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [CEA])
READ:UNKNOWN
CC: Janet L. Yellen ( CN=Janet L. Yellen/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [CEA])
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Here is a rough draft of a speech I am giving tomorrow.
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Benefits and Concerns about Open Trade.
RZL.
Draft of Comments for a Presentation to the Fredrich-Neuman Foundation July 9th.
Our recent economic experience is surely evidence of the compatibility of strong
growth, improved competitiveness and an open economy. We are enjoying the longest
peacetime expansion, which has created over 18 million jobs. We have the lowest unemployment
rates for almost three decades and the lowest core inflation rates since the mid 60s. And in the
past three years we have seen surging productivity growth and rising real wages.
US firms are again the word's most competitive in most of the high tech sectors of the future
(aerospace, software, computers, finance, semiconductors, entertainment, and pharmaceuticals).
Our systems of higher education, research and innovation are the envy of the world. Many now
seek to learn the secrets of our success. Increasingly those in Europe wonder at the flexibility of
our labor markets, Those in Asia at our transparent and resilient financial system.
At the same time there is no question that we are today more open to international trade
than we have been, certainly at any time in this century and probably before that. In addition to
its policies of fiscal prudence and investing in people and education, a key element in this
administration's strategy has been opening markets abroad and keeping our market open at
home. Agreements such as Uruguay Round, NAFTA, and sectoral free trade in financial
services, telecommunications and information technology are just the most prominent of 271
agreements since Clearly, a stellar performance and an open economy are quite
compatible.
Indeed, we should expect this because international trade yields numerous benefits,
which include:
Efficiency. Trade allows us to reap efficiency gains by specializing in producing the
products we can make relatively well and buying products from the rest of the world, which they
make more cheaply. As we expand our exports, Americans obtain more jobs at higher wages in
our most productive and competitive firms. Export firms have been found to pay wage
premiums.
Wages are also higher, because we have access to cheaper imports. The ability to buy
cheaper foreign products is an important complement to faster productivity growth in raising
living standards and boosting real wages. Today, a dollar buys 13 percent more imported goods
and services than it did 1995. Over the same period, nominal average hourly earnings have risen
from $11.43 to $13.04. This implies that by working an hour, the typical production worker can
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now buy 29 percent more imported goods and services than she could in 1995. Imports have
helped us deliver on our promise of high wage jobs.
Variety. Second, trade enhances consumer choice, by making available products we do
not produce at home or are more precisely matched to consumer tastes. Think of what our store
shelves would look like without imported products. In some cases, imports are the only way we
can obtain goods and key inputs we do not or cannot produce at home
Competition. Third, trade is an important source of competition in our economy. Free
trade complements anti-trust in constraining domestic monopolies. This leads to lower prices for
consumers and greater productive efficiency.
Productivity. Trade stimulates innovation and technological improvements. We need
only recall the major improvements in our domestic steel and automobile industries in response
to foreign challenges. Econometric studies of both Japan and the United States find a positive
relationship between industrial total factor productivity growth and import growth. By giving
our exporters access to global markets, it encourages more spending on R&D. It is perhaps no
surprise that the manufacturing and agricultural sectors of our economy most exposed to trade,
are the sectors in which productivity growth has been the fastest.
Competitiveness. To compete effectively in world markets, our producers need access to
the best components and equipment at world prices. Most complex products today require the
combination of both high and low skill activities. By purchasing inputs abroad our firms can
leverage their high-skill activities. An example: today's personal computers often come
equipped with US software and micro-processors but many other components are made in Asia
and elsewhere. Erecting barriers to imports has an unseen boomerang effect on exports. By
increasing the costs of inputs that producers use to generate goods and services, protection
damages the position of US exporters. It is no surprise that major exporters like Caterpillar are so
concerned about higher steel prices, or producers of computers like IBM oppose protection on
flat-panel display screens.
Spare Capacity. It is also apparent that by being part of an international economy, and
drawing on spare capacity in the rest of the world, our economy has been able to enjoy
particularly rapid employment growth, without fear of inflation. Thus trade has contributed.
Many economists ascribe some part of the recent quiescent performance of inflation to our
ability to draw on global capacity. They believe that this allows the economy to achieve higher
levels of employment without igniting inflation. This has allowed the Federal reserve more
leeway to keep interest rates low and reduce unemployment. In this way, imports have helped
boost employment.
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Given the competitiveness of our economy, given the high levels of employment, and
given the openness, which implies that when we sign trade agreements others reduce their
barriers by far more than we reduce ours, it is therefore quite surprising that the Congress has
shown considerable reluctance to provide the President with Trade Negotiating Authority. This
reflects a more pervasive concerns about the merits of trade liberalization.
So why is there such concern? I'd like in my comments to distinguish and discuss two
sets of concerns. The first relate to the economic impacts of trade, the second to another set of
concerns which relates to issues of governance and the rules for trade. I believe it is important to
deal with these concerns. In some cases, they are exaggerated or misplaced and we need to
explain this. But there are also cases where the concerns are legitimate, and this administration
has pursued policies to deal with them. Let me deal with each set in turn.
Low wage competition. One foolhardy claim is that we simply cannot compete with low
wage countries. This folly was best captured by Ross Perot's claims that free trade with Mexico
would generate a giant sucking sound as jobs migrated to Mexico. The truth is that in many
activities we certainly can compete. The reason is that its costs, rather than wages which matter.
And our costs can be lower as long as we're sufficiently productive to what matters is costs, not
simply the level of wages. Wage rates in Mexico may be a seventh of those in the US but it turns
out so it output per worker. This means that the way we compete is through higher productivity
not through lower wages. Of course, there are some industries in which our productivity edge
cannot outweigh lower wages.
Deficits = job loss. A second foolhardy view is the naive statement that trade deficits
automatically cost jobs. Look at our economy today and two things are striking first, we have a
very large deficit and second, we are closer to full employment than we have been for three
decades.
But there are more sophisticated views, which are less easily dismissed, indeed some of
which are valid.
Trade, as with other changes, may create losers as well as winners. This relates to those
who lose in the short, as a result of the dislocation that trade may induce, and to those who lose
in the long run, because trade could affect the overall distribution of income.
Dislocation. In the short run, as we've seen recently in sectors such as steel, oil, textiles,
and mining and agriculture, trade can cause job loss. In some cases, therefore, trade deficits can
have a negative employment impact.
Inequality. A second and more long run concern are that trade is the dominant reason
why we have seen growing wage inequality. This could certainly be true in theory. Trade does
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create winners and losers. However, most economists who have studied this question looking at
the past two decades, assign the major role to technology rather than trade-and many suggest
about ten or fifteen percent of the skill premium increase is attributable to trade. But recent
evidence in which we have seen particularly rapid gains for those at the bottom of the income
distribution suggest this effect is probably less than that.
So these concerns point to a role for policy.
But the first point I would emphasize, is that trade protection is not the answer.
Protection inevitably raises costs to consumers that far outweigh the gains to producers.
While there may be a limited role in cushioning some of the change to give industries an
opportunity to adjust - as the President has done this week in the case of the lamb industry
-- preventing change would permanently deprive us of the benefits which I have already
described. The key response lies in an economy, which is sufficiently flexible to meet the
challenge of reaping those benefits.
1.Maintain domestic growth. One aspect relates to keeping the economy at full
employment. Maintaining high growth. Structural change is much easier to accomplish. It is
interesting for example to look at what has happened to dislocated workers as the economy has
moved closer to full employment.
Every two years, the Bureau of Labor statistics conducts a survey of workers who have
been dislocated. It is striking to contrast the experience when unemployment was high and when
it was low.
First, the number of such workers has declined by about 25 percent. 3,132 between 95
and 97 versus 4,120 91/93.
Second, by the time the survey was taken only about half those displaced had jobs in the
early period, versus about 64 percent in the latter.
Third, In 91/93 reemployed workers experienced a decline of 16 percent in their wages,
between 95 and 97, the decline was just two percent.
This does not mean losing your job is not painful. But it does mean once you find a job
you can do much better the stronger is the overall economy.
2.A second policy response relates to government assistance in providing training
and search assistance. A major new mechanism is the federal government job bank servicing
millions of workers today.
3. For the long run the key lies in education and training. Regardless of whether the
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underlying source is international competition or technological change. The key is education.
But there is also making sure that work does pay. Here in particular there is a role
both for minimum wages set at reasonable levels and for an earned income tax credit.
These are all areas in which the administration has taken the lead.
The second set of issues relates to the issues of sovereignty and governance. Here the
arguments are more political than economic. There are concerns that an open global
trading system will undermine domestic sovereignty and damage health labor the
environment.
Here too, I believe there are fundamental misconceptions. By joining international
organizations and signing trade agreements the US has not given up our ability to determine our
own fate. It's the same as with any contract. It makes sense to sign a contract as long as the
benefits outweigh the costs. And indeed if the contract no longer pays, one simply must pay
compensation. In exactly the same way, the US derives benefits by participating in agreements
in which both other countries and we open their markets. Indeed the US economy is
extraordinarily transparent and open. Thus when we negotiate we get others to open their
markets. It's hard to understand why we would not want to do this. We benefit from a rules
based system and have been actively using it much to our advantage. And if it happens that we
are found in breech we have the choice of desisting in our behavior, or providing compensation.
In fact, the real problem we face is how to make sure that the WTO can be more effective
in enforcing its rules. Indeed, we have had particular problems recently with Europe, for
example, in the case of Bananas, and in the case of Beef hormones. We have obtained favorable
rulings and not obtained compliance from the EU. We hope that in the new trade4 round to be
launched in Seattle, we will be able to make improvements to the system.
A second concern relates to the rules of the trading system. These have shifted
heavily from border barriers to concerns about other policies. Some of the most contentious is
health, environment and labor. The key in these cases is how to achieve the correct balance,
between domestic autonomy on the one hand, and yet the attainment of desirable international
norms on the other.
I fear here that ideologies on both sides threaten the trading system. On the one hand, we
have those who insist we should only trading with countries that are exactly like us. Who have
standards that are the same as ours? One the other hand, those who believe there is no role for
trade to deal with even the most egregious human rights abuses, and no room to make exceptions
even where trade can undermine the environment.
It seems to me that we need to recognize the need for balance in these areas. To think
creatively about how those trade-offs can be made. One example of such creativity were the side
agreements to the NAFTA in which emphasized enforcement and did not seek to harmonization.
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Another direction of achieving balance lies in the health area - which has become extremely
contentious in our relations with Europe.
Should the Europeans keep out our beef our, or prevent the sale of genetically modified
food, even if there are no scientific support for there position. I think not. At the same time,
however, consumers should surely have the right to know how their products were made. Surely
here too, some compromise involving labeling should be possible.
So in sum, we do need an intelligent approach to realize the full benefits of trade.
We need supportive macro and adjustment policies to make change in general more
achievable. We need international rules and system which finds the correct between
achieving a common set of basic principles that achieve an open global community without
treading too a strongly on the legitimate means of expression for national diversity.
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RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
CREATION DATE/TIME: 8-JUL-1999 15:18:42.00
SUBJECT: Re: 301 relaliation list
TO: Yu-Chin Chen ( CN=Yu-Chin Chen/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [CEA])
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Yes, you need to explain that TRQ's will riase the price for those imports
that do come into the US. Lets talk about this.
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Steven N. Braun ( CN=Steven N. Braun/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA )
CREATION DATE/TIME: 8-JUL-1999 10:07:58.00
SUBJECT: Morning Meeting for 07/08/99
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP@EOP [ CEA ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Forwarded by Steven N. Braun/CEA/EOP on 07/08/99
10:07 AM
[email protected]
07/08/99 08:58:17 AM
Record Type: Record
To:
cc:
Subject: Morning Meeting for 07/08/99
NOTICE: Forwarding this proprietary email report constitutes violation of
United States and international copyright laws, and will be pursued to the
full extent of the law.
Medley Global Advisors 212-219-9096
(See attached file: mmjul8.pdf)
- mmjul8.pdf
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MEDLEY GLOBAL ADVISORS
Morning Meeting
July 8, 1999
G-7
Japan: Good news is bad news
Europe: ECB has no taste for intervention
G-7
JAPAN
HOME ON THE RANGES. FOR NOW
If you think trading currency and bond yield ranges as we have been advising since March is
boring, get ready for more boredom if Japan's Ministry of Finance has its way. According to
officials in Tokyo the jury is still out on the Japanese economy and until it is in, the broadly
defined preference ranges for yen and JGB yields will remain in place. MOF officials take a "good
news is bad news" approach to current economic numbers. They figure that high GDP figures
(flawed though they are) combined with strong Nikkei performance and an okay Tankan could full
always cautious Japanese business leaders into halting the wave of firings and restructuring
needed to put Japan on the track to real long-term economic health. "If you see unemployment
rising or at least staying around 5% then that's good news, but if you see it dropping steadily
that's bad because it means reform has been halted." There's no doubt this is true, but it is
certainly encouraging to hear MOF officials say it.
The yen intervention will continue for the foreseeable future, as necessary. The key to timing
interventions is finding moments when it appears market sentiment is turning once again toward
a stronger yen, "we have to keep the sentiment pushing toward a stronger dollar, not a stronger
yen," one official noted. That's why MOF came in with a little love tap immediately after the
Tankan report; just in case you were getting any ideas about buying the currency. They will pick
their moments and it will have a lot to do with price action and events (like Tankan) that could
become rallying points for yen bulls. But there is no question that they want to keep the yen on
the defensive and above 120. "It's a lot easier buying dollars than selling dollars," one observer
noted, "after all, we have all the yen the printing presses can handle. When you sell dollars, you
only have a paltry $250 billion to play with." We continue to get the strong feeling that the upper
limits on dollar/yen from Japan's standpoint is much less important than the floor, but if you're
looking for clues on timing, pay attention to clues from the price action that sentiment is firming
for the yen or that opportunistic events are around the corner.
Meanwhile, Summers amplified the concern we reported two weeks ago from US Treasury
officials about Japan's intervention strategy. Following another bout of Japanese intervention
above 120, he emphasized the strong dollar is in the US interest, but once again he warned that
Japan should not set about to weaken the yen as a deliberate policy. He said, "Manipulating the
yen is no way to increase Japanese growth." MOF officials publicly said they hadn't heard any
complaints the last time we wrote this, so maybe their hearing has improved this time around.
Again, we do not think the US is concerned about the 120-123 range, but would be concerned if
deliberate moves to weaken the yen absent strong progress on monetary easing began to be
official Japanese policy. From what we hear in Tokyo it is not.
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Turning to JGBs, MOF officials continue to hold firm on their 1.3-2.0% zone for JGB interest
rates. This is slightly modified from the original formula (which had 1.3-1.7 as inner bands and
1.0 and 2.0 as outer bands), as we told you a few weeks ago once it became clear that the yen
and the Nikkei could withstand slightly higher rates. However, there is no certainty that the
currency and stocks could withstand a sharp rise in rates so the hope now is that rates will "calm
down" after all the Tankan and jobs package excitement. There still continues to be a widely felt
need to let long term rates drift up above that ceiling later in the year for both political (older
voters get pension payments keyed off these rates) and financial sector reasons (life insurance
companies desperately need higher yielding long term securities if they are going to survive). But
the best betting here is that the real increase in longer term yields will not start until September
when it becomes clear that the second quarter GDP is nothing to write home about and a more
robust supplementary budget is needed. That won't happen until the early fall and until then the
ranges continue to be comfortable places to trade. But as we approach the September time
horizon it will be important to be ready when the extra budget discussion starts.
EUROPE
ECB STILL WARY OF INTERVENTION DESPITE SLIDE TOWARDS PARITY
Despite the beleaguered euro's renewed slide towards parity, the ECB still has no appetite for
intervention. Conversations with ECB officials in recent days suggest they remain highly reluctant
to intervene because doing so would be tantamount to setting an exchange rate target, which
they feel is unnecessary for ensuring price stability. The ECB's philosophy remains that it would
be better for the market to establish the bottom to the euro rather than have the Central Bank
step in to set a floor, which would then have to be defended at the risk of undermining the new
institution's credibility.
"There is a psychological element to parity to be sure," commented one official, who notes his
mother keeps calling him about the "historic new lows" for the six month old currency that is
reported on TV. But for monetary policy, he said, the parity question is not really an issue. The
European economy is far less sensitive to exchange rate movements; like the Fed, the ECB sees
the exchange rate as an important indicator for policy, but not a determining one. Intervention
would be kept to an absolute minimum, reserved for situations in which the ECB saw either a
currency crisis emerging due to a rapid and destabilizing movement (perhaps a dampening effect
on consumer confidence and spending due to the psychological factor), or most importantly,
evidence of imported inflationary pressures.
The model for intervention in the eyes of the ECB is the August 1995 coordinated intervention
with the US to reinforce the dollar that had been slowly rising from its lows that spring. In that
model, an intervention should be coordinated with other central banks, supporting a trend rather
than trying to reverse a trend, able to be followed through with monetary policy such as adjusting
interest rates, and tactically timed for maximum impact in the less liquid market of a Friday
afternoon. The recent intervention in euro/yen on behalf of the BOJ was done solely on the
account of the BOJ as a courtesy since the ECB was asked by the Japanese officials for help in
the European time zone with their own intervention efforts. While from an operational point of
view, the intervention went well, it was not a warm-up for an ECB intervention on its own account,
an official said.
The ECB's new mantra, that the euro has "strong potential for appreciation," is more than just a
slogan: they are confident the market will decide the euro is relatively cheap and will bid it up
soon enough. "It is useful to say 'you can never rule it out,' because you must keep that
uncertainty in the minds of the market traders when they go to sleep at night. But on this
question, our view is no different than say that of the Fed. It is not benign neglect, but perhaps
we will have to think of a new term."
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