Ask the Scholar
Document scope · 1 page
Scholar
Ask about this object, its catalog metadata, its source description, or the page inventory.
For page-specific OCR and visual context, open one of the page chats.
Scholar Source Context
Document identity
localId
225358443
label
CO2 [Carbon Dioxide] Emissions - Technical Paper
core
doc
dtoType
document
citationUrl
pageCount
1
Source metadata
id
225358443
contentType
document
title
CO2 [Carbon Dioxide] Emissions - Technical Paper
citationUrl
collections
Records of the Council of Economic Advisers (Clinton Administration)
Judson Jaffe's Files
imageCount
1
hasImages
yes
source
import
hasTranscription
no
Source extras
naId
225358443
levelOfDescription
fileUnit
otherTitles
42-t-4739519-20171095F-012-003-2019
recordType
description
ocrSource
nara-archive
Single page context
seq
1
pageIndex
0
type
document
mediaId
7a75aeff0e73f5dc
ocrText
FOIA Number: 2017-1095-F
FOIA
MARKER
This is not a textual record. This is used as an
administrative marker by the William J. Clinton
Presidential Library Staff.
Collection/Record Group:
Clinton Presidential Records
Subgroup/Office of Origin:
Council of Economic Advisers
Series/Staff Member:
Judson Jaffe
Subseries:
OA/ID Number:
20746
FolderID:
Folder Title:
CO2 [Carbon Dioxide] Emmissions - Technical Paper
Stack:
Row:
Section:
Shelf:
Position:
S
20
6
3
3
Tech1.log
151099
/
> Detrend the series
>
*
*
/
sort year
gen dntek = nonhitek - 1.02808*nonhitek[_n - 1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [_n] - 1.007727*co2 n - 1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen tntek = 1.02808*nonhitek[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen tco2 = 1.007727*co2[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cheat = htdgyear [ n] - htdgyear [_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen ccool = cldgyear [_n] - cldgyear [_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cfoss = ffppcomr [n] - ffppcomr [_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cres = eleprrer [ n] - eleprrer [_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen ccom = eleprcor [ n] - eleprcor [_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen ccoal = ffppcoar [n] - ffppcoar[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cgas = ffppngr [_n] - ffppngr [_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen coil = ffppoilr [n] - ffppoilr[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cnumref = numrefin [n] - numrefin[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen crefcap = refincap [n] - refincap [_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cnetsum = netsumca [ n] - netsumca{_n-1}
(1 missing value generated)
gen cextra = extralos [n] - extralos[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
1
Tech1.log
151099
gen cpdctu = cpvtyund[_n] - cpvtyund[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
gen cpdcts = cpvtysur[_n] - cpvtysur[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
gen cnumele = numeleut [_n] - numeleut[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen propcoal = hrscoal/hrstotal
gen cprpcoal = propcoal[_n] - propcoal[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cresl = cres [_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
gen ccoml = ccom [_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
gen cfoss1 = cfoss[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
gen ccoall = ccoal[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
gen cgasl = cgas [_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
gen coill = coil [_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
/*******
> *** Fossil Index
>
/
/ * Current Foss Only * /
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool cfoss if year < 1998
Source I
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
37
F( 4,
32) =
13.65
Model
27064.2851
4
6766.07127
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
15857.0642
32
495.533256
R-squared
= 0.6306
+
Adj R-squared
=
0.5844
Total
42921.3493
36
1192.2597
Root MSE
= 22.261
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2737161
.0402009
6.809
0.000
.1918295
.3556026
cheat
.0270028
.0178131
1.516
0.139
-.0092813
.063287
ccool
.0193422
.0370667
0.522
0.605
-.0561601
.0948445
cfoss
-10.13689
11.87851
-0.853
0.400
-34.33263
14.05884
cons
9.628127
3.663471
2.628
0.013
2.165881
17.09037
2
Tech1.log
151099
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool cfoss (dntek cheat ccool cnumre crefcap) if year <
> 1998
(2SLS)
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
37
+
F( 4,
32) =
11.44
Model
24009.4166
4
6002.35414
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
18911.9327
32
590.997897
R-squared
=
0.5594
Adj R-squared
=
0.5043
Total
42921.3493
36
1192.2597
Root MSE
=
24.31
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t
[95% Conf. Interval]
cfoss
19.3563
25.19825
0.768
0.448
-31.97085
70.68345
dntek
.2950022
.0465891
6.332
0.000
.2001033
.3899012
cheat
.0278568
.0194635
1.431
0.162
-.0117891
.0675026
ccool
.0300333
.0412304
0.728
0.472
-.0539503
.1140169
cons
9.317951
4.007268
2.325
0.027
1.155413
17.48049
predict pdco2
HT = 142.71
(1 missing value generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(1 missing value generated)
list year co2 pco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
39.
1998
1484
1475.818
/ * Lagged foss only * /
drop pdco2 pco2
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool cfoss1 if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31) =
15.24
Model
28388.0878
4
7097.02194
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
14435.0364
31
465.646336
R-squared
Il
0.6629
Adj R-squared
=
0.6194
Total
42823.1242
35
1223.51783
Root MSE
= 21.579
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2498562
.0412819
6.052
0.000
.1656612
.3340513
cheat
.0251607
.0175264
1.436
0.161
-.0105847
.0609061
ccool
.0179313
.0359694
0.499
0.622
-.0554288
.0912913
cfoss1
-23.79871
12.16326
-1.957
0.059
-48.60584
1.008411
cons
9.850245
3.600215
2.736
0.010
2.507557
17.19293
3
Tech1.log
151099
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
list year co2 pco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
39.
1998
1484
1484.811
/ * Current and lagged foss * /
drop pdco2 pco2
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool cfoss1 cfoss if year < 1998
Source
I
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 5,
30) =
11.83
Model
28412.9204
5
5682.58407
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
14410.2038
30
480.340127
R-squared
=
0.6635
Adj R-squared
=
0.6074
Total
42823.1242
35
1223.51783
Root MSE
=
21.917
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.249136
.0420477
5.925
0.000
.1632632
.3350088
cheat
.0251523
.0178009
1.413
0.168
-.0112019
.0615064
ccool
.0171
.036715
0.466
0.645
-.0578821
.092082
cfossl
-22.78568
13.13255
-1.735
0.093
-49.60593
4.034561
cfoss
-2.827392
12.4351
-0.227
0.822
-28.22326
22.56848
cons
9.869592
3.657568
2.698
0.011
2.399842
17.33934
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool cfoss1 cfoss (dntek cheat ccool cfoss1 cnumre cref
> cap) if year < 1998
(2SLS)
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 5,
30) =
9.69
Model
24795.5748
5
4959.11496
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
18027.5494
30
600.918312
R-squared
=
0.5790
Adj R-squared
=
0.5089
Total
42823.1242
35
1223.51783
Root MSE
=
24.514
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
cfoss
31.2974
28.41318
1.102
0.279
-26.73006
89.32486
dntek
.2578286
.0474516
5.434
0.000
.1609195
.3547378
cheat
.0252546
.0199103
1.268
0.214
.0154076
.0659168
ccool
.0271332
.0417066
0.651
0.520
-.058043
.1123094
cfoss1
-35.01231
17.16275
-2.040
0.050
-70.06333
.0386982
cons
9.636083
4.094475
2.353
0.025
1.274049
17.99812
4
Tech1.log
151099
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
list year co2 pco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
39.
1998
1484
1475.143
/
> *** Coal Prices
>
*
/
/ * Current Coal Only * /
drop pdco2 pco2
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool ccoal if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
37
+
F( 4,
32) =
13:61
Model
27030.0231
4
6757.50577
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
15891.3262
32
496.603943
R-squared
=
0.6298
Adj R-squared
=
0.5835
Total
42921.3493
36
1192.2597
Root MSE
Il
22.285
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2716014
.0410022
6.624
0.000
.1880827
.3551201
cheat
.0276114
.0178333
1.548
0.131
-.0087138
.0639365
ccool
.0161517
.0378151
0.427
0.672
-.0608751
.0931786
ccoal
-22.30923
27.50882
-0.811
0.423
-78.34287
33.7244
cons
9.476006
3.665723
2.585
0.015
2.009172
16.94284
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool ccoal (dntek cheat ccool cpdctu cpdcts) if year <
> 1998
(2SLS)
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
37
F( 4,
32) =
5.16
Model
-646.664551
4
-161.666138
Prob > F
=
0.0025
Residual
43568.0138
32
1361.50043
R-squared
=
Adj R-squared
=
Total
42921.3493
36
1192.2597
Root MSE
= 36.899
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
ccoal
-227.6731
226.4482
-1.005
0.322
-688.9329
233.5868
dntek
.1847882
.1157666
1.596
0.120
-.0510207
.4205971
5
Tech1.log
151099
cheat
.0305115
.0296937
1.028
0.312
-.0299726
.0909957
ccool
-.0470433
.0926269
-0.508
0.615
-.2357182
.1416316
cons
9.057044
6.086494
1.488
0.147
-3.340738
21.45483
predict pdco2
(1 missing value generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(1 missing value generated)
list year co2 pco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
39.
1998
1484
1477.428
/ * Lagged foss only * /
drop pdco2 pco2
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool ccoall if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
+
F( 4,
31) =
12.76
Model
26645.4082
4
6661.35205
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
16177.716
31
521.861806
R-squared
=
0.6222
Adj R-squared
=
0.5735
Total
42823.1242
35
1223.51783
Root MSE
= 22.844
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>Itl
[95% Conf. Interval]
+
dntek
.2789835
.0409795
6.808
0.000
.1954053
.3625618
cheat
.0275711
.0185617
1.485
0.148
-.0102858
.065428
ccool
.0225673
.0380051
0.594
0.557
-.0549445
.1000792
ccoall
-7.471242
26.99979
-0.277
0.784
-62.53767
47.59519
cons
9.528624
3.807614
2.503
0.018
1.762943
17.2943
-
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
list year co2 pco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
39.
1998
1484
1482.501
/
* Current and lagged foss * /
drop pdco2 pco2
6
Tech1.log
151099
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool ccoall ccoal if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
+
F( 5,
30) =
10.17
Model
26933.3741
5
5386.67483
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
15889.75
30
529.658334
R-squared
=
0.6289
Adj R-squared
=
0.5671
Total
42823.1242
35
1223.51783
Root MSE
=
23.014
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2715152
.0425088
6.387
0.000
.1847007
3583297
cheat
.0274464
.0187006
1.468
0.153
.0107453
.0656382
ccool
.0159155
.0393364
0.405
0.689
-.0644201
.0962511
ccoall
.0277121
29.03983
0.001
0.999
-59.27954
59.33496
ccoal
-22.38282
30.35583
-0.737
0.467
-84.37768
39.61205
cons
9.509775
3.836036
2.479
0.019
1.675544
17.34401
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool ccoall ccoal (dntek cheat ccool ccoall cpdctu cpdc
> ts) if year < 1998
(2SLS)
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
+
F( 5,
30) =
1.87
Model
-46578.2366
5
-9315.64733
Prob > F
=
0.1293
Residual
89401.3608
30
2980.04536
R-squared
=
Adj R-squared =
Total
42823.1242
35
1223.51783
Root MSE
II
54.59
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
ccoal
335.2374
522.3383
0.642
0.526
-731.5198
1401.995
dntek
.3908402
.1999126
1.955
0.060
-.0174357
. 7991161
cheat
.0294381
.0444512
0.662
0.513
-.0613435
.1202196
ccool
.1221956
.1798474
0.679
0.502
-.2451018
. 4894931
ccoall
-119.7864
186.5149
-0.642
0.526
-500.7006
261.1278
cons
9.810921
9.109477
1.077
0.290
-8.793114
28.41496
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
list year co2 pco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
39.
1998
1484
1489.691
/
*******
>
***
Oil Prices
7
Tech1.log
151099
>
*
/
/ * Current Coal Only * /
drop pdco2 pco2
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool coil if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
37
+
F( 4,
32) =
13.36
Model
26847.0568
4
6711.76421
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
16074.2924
32
502.321639
R-squared
=
0.6255
Adj R-squared
=
0.5787
Total
42921.3493
36
1192.2597
Root MSE
=
22.413
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2782483
.0398855
6.976
0.000
.1970042
.3594923
cheat
.0260073
.0180927
1.437
0.160
- -.0108462
.0628609
ccool
.0204306
.0373812
0.547
0.588
-.0557123
.0965736
coil
-2.499771
4.674564
-0.535
0.597
-12.02155
7.022004
cons
9.548796
3.686687
2.590
0.014
2.039262
17.05833
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool coil (dntek cheat ccool cnumre crefcap) if year <
> 1998
(2SLS)
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
37
F( 4,
32) =
11.73
Model
24454.7477
4
6113.68693
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
18466.6015
32
577.081298
R-squared
=
0.5698
Adj R-squared
=
0.5160
Total
42921.3493
36
1192.2597
Root MSE
= 24.023
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
coil
7.701606
9.589022
0.803
0.428
-11.83059
27.2338
dntek
.2896092
.0437095
6.626
0.000
.2005759
.3786425
cheat
.0312676
.0198453
1.576
0.125
-.0091559
.0716911
ccool
.0309845
.0409495
0.757
0.455
-.0524269
.1143959
cons
9.437479
3.952523
2.338
0.023
1.386453
17.48851
predict pdco2
(1 missing value generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(1 missing value generated)
list year co2 pco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
39.
1998
1484
1473.783
8
Tech1.log
151099
/ * Lagged foss only * /
drop pdco2 pco2
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool coill if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31) =
13.70
Model
27354.4663
4
6838.61657
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
15468.6579
31
498.988964
R-squared
=
0.6388
Adj R-squared
=
0.5922
Total
42823.1242
35
1223.51783
Root MSE
=
22.338
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval ]
dntek
.2550741
.0447506
5.700
0.000
.1638046
.3463436
cheat
.0256393
.0181565
1.412
0.168
-.0113911
.0626696
ccool
.0192192
.0372641
0.516
0.610
-.0567815
.09522
coill
-6.366348
5.196248
-1.225
0.230
-16.96416
4.231469
cons
9.693438
3.725393
2.602
0.014
2.095449
17.29143
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
list year co2 pco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
39.
1998
1484
1485.126
/ * Current and lagged foss * /
drop pdco2 pco2
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool coill coil if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 5,
30)
=
10.67
Model
27411.2483
5
5482.24966
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
15411.8759
30
513.729195
R-squared
=
0.6401
Adj R-squared
=
0.5801
Total
42823.1242
35
1223.51783
Root MSE
= 22.666
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2544965
.04544
5.601
0.000
.1616956
.3472974
cheat
.0248547
.0185732
1.338
0.191
-.0130768
.0627863
ccool
.017695
.0380875
0.465
0.646
-.06009
.09548
coill
-6.068622
5.34795
-1.135
0.265
-16.99059
4.853349
9
Tech1.log
151099
coil
-1.595205
4.798197
-0.332
0.742
-11.39443
8.20402
cons
9.710924
3.780383
2.569
0.015
1.990352
17.4315
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool coill coil (dntek cheat ccool coill cnumre crefcap
> ) if year < 1998
(2SLS)
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
+
F( 5,
30) =
9.00
Model
24176.381
5
4835.27619
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
18646.7432
30
621.558107
R-squared
=
0.5646
+
Adj R-squared
=
0.4920
Total
42823.1242
35
1223.51783
Root MSE
=
24.931
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
coil
10.44515
10.37356
1.007
0.322
-10.74049
31.63079
dntek
.258856
.0500863
5.168
0.000
.1565661
.3611459
cheat
.0307761
.0208964
1.473
0.151
-.0119
.0734523
ccool
.0291996
.0427546
0.683
0.500
-.0581169
.1165161
coill
-8.315811
6.114072
-1.360
0.184
-20.80241
4.170788
cons
9.578943
4.159392
2.303
0.028
1.084331
18.07355
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
list year co2 pco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
39.
1998
1484
1474.094
/*******
> *** Residential Electricity
>
*******
/
/ * Current only A. /
drop pdco2 pco2
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool cres if year < 1998
Source I
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
37
F( 4,
32) =
22.48
Model
31654.7076
4
7913.67691
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
11266.6416
32
352.082551
R-squared
II
0.7375
Adj R-squared
=
0.7047
Total
42921.3493
36
1192.2597
Root MSE
Il
18.764
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
10
Tech1.log
151099
dntek
.2120832
.0378695
5.600
0.000
.1349455
.2892208
cheat
.0254613
.0150202
1.695
0.100
-.0051338
.0560565
ccool
.0124035
.0311614
0.398
0.693
-.0510703
.0758773
cres
-39.59006
10.5572
-3.750
0.001
-61.09438
-18.08574
cons
5.571467
3.261015
1.709
0.097
-1.071004
12.21394
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool cres (dntek cheat ccool cnetsum cnumele cprpcoal)
> if year < 1998
(2SLS)
Source
I
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
37
F( 4,
32) =
19.47
Model
30490.9378
4
7622.73445
Prob > F
II
0.0000
Residual
12430.4115
32
388.450359
R-squared
II
0.7104
Adj R-squared
=
0.6742
Total
42921.3493
36
1192.2597
Root MSE
=
19.709
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
cres
-58.78383
19.43911
-3.024
0.005
-98.37999
-19.18766
dntek
.1786558
.0485325
3.681
0.001
.0797984
.2775132
cheat
.0245717
.0157942
1.556
0.130
-.0076001
.0567435
ccool
.0072581
.03301
0.220
0.827
-.059981
.0744971
cons
3.656433
3.777601
0.968
0.340
-4.038288
11.35115
predict pdco2
(1 missing value generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(1 missing value generated)
list year co2 pco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
39.
1998
1484
1484.023
/ * Lagged only * /
drop pdco2 pco2
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool cresl if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31) =
22.59
Model
31883.8434
4
7970.96085
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
10939.2808
31
352.880025
R-squared
=
0.7445
Adj R-squared
II
0.7116
Total
42823.1242
35
1223.51783
Root MSE
= 18.785
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2618714
.0335244
7.811
0.000
.1934979
3302448
11
Tech1.log
151099
cheat
.0329325
.0153008
2.152
0.039
.0017263
.0641387
ccool
.0250683
.0312384
0.802
0.428
-.0386428
.0887795
cresl
-36.31314
9.389152
-3.868
0.001
-55.46244
-17.16384
cons
6.021033
3.26017
1.847
0.074
-.6281266
12.67019
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
list year co2 pco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
39.
1998
1484
1484.231
/
* current and lagged prices * /
drop pdco2 pco2
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool cresl cres if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 5,
30) =
21.74
Model
33560.9051
5
6712.18101
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
9262.21912
30
308.740637
R-squared
Il
0.7837
Adj R-squared
=
0.7477
Total
42823.1242
35
1223.51783
Root MSE
=
17.571
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2220629
.0357078
6.219
0.000
.1491379
.2949879
cheat
.029858
.0143726
2.077
0.046
.0005052
.0592107
ccool
.0172297
.0294124
0.586
0.562
-.0428385
.0772978
cresl
-25.35373
9.96197
-2.545
0.016
-45.69879
-5.008675
cres
-26.1429
11.21698
-2.331
0.027
-49.05104
-3.23476
cons
4.502406
3.118301
1.444
0.159
-1.866014
10.87083
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool cres1 cres (dntek cheat ccool cresl cnetsum cnumel
> e cprpcoal) if year < 1998
(2SLS)
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 5,
30) =
20.35
Model
33204.5064
5
6640.90127
Prob > F
II
0.0000
Residual
9618.61781
30
320.620594
R-squared
=
0.7754
Adj R-squared
Il
0.7380
Total
42823.1242
35
1223.51783
Root MSE
=
17.906
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
cres
-38.19457
25.0231
-1.526
0.137
-89.29855
12.90941
12
Tech1.log
151099
dntek
.2037115
.0497293
4.096
0.000
.1021506
.3052723
cheat
.0284406
.0148786
1.912
0.066
-.0019455
.0588268
ccool
.0136161
.0307071
0.443
0.661
-
-.0490961
.0763283
cresl
-20.30153
13.78901
-1.472
0.151
-48.46244
7.859374
cons
3.802331
3.430736
1.108
0.277
-3.204166
10.80883
-
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
list year co2 pco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
39.
1998
1484
1484.589
/
> *** Commercial Electricity
>
/
/ * Current only * /
drop pdco2 pco2
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool ccom if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
37
+
F( 4,
32) =
24.44
Model
32337.9362
4
8084.48405
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
10583.4131
32
330.731659
R-squared
= 0.7534
Adj R-squared
=
0.7226
Total
42921.3493
36
1192.2597
Root MSE
=
18.186
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>Itl
[95% Conf. Interval]
+
dntek
.2143291
.0359269
5.966
0.000
.1411484
.2875098
cheat
.0296766
.0145613
2.038
0.050
.0000161
.0593371
ccool
.0113524
.0302095
0.376
0.710
-.0501823
.0728871
ccom
-42.53594
10.30541
-4.128
0.000
-63.52737
-21.54451
cons
5.525065
3.14398
1.757
0.088
-.879013
11.92914
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool ccom (dntek cheat ccool cnetsum cnumele cprpcoal)
> if year < 1998
(2SLS)
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
37
+
F( 4,
32) =
21.64
Model
31884.1979
4
7971.04947
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
11037.1514
32
344.910981
R-squared
= 0.7429
Adj R-squared
=
0.7107
Total
42921.3493
36
1192.2597
Root MSE
= 18.572
13
Tech1.log
151099
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
ccom
-54.60657
18.05595
-3.024
0.005
-91.38535
-17.82779
dntek
.1954005
.0433063
4.512
0.000
.1071884
.2836126
cheat
.0303521
.0148929
2.038
0.050
.0000163
.0606878
ccool
.0080423
.0311115
0.259
0.798
-.0553297
.0714144
cons
4.390971
3.494084
1.257
0.218
-2.726245
11.50819
predict pdco2
(1 missing value generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(1 missing value generated)
list year co2 pco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
39.
1998
1484
1486.484
/ * Lagged only * /
drop pdco2 pco2
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool ccom1 if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31) =
18.32
Model
30094.7825
4
7523.69563
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
12728.3417
31
410.591667
R-squared
=
0.7028
Adj R-squared
II
0.6644
Total
42823.1242
35
1223.51783
Root MSE
= 20.263
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2595669
.0365143
7.109
0.000
.1850955
.3340384
cheat
.0333822
.0165628
2.015
0.053
-.0003979
.0671624
ccool
.0235372
.0336915
0.699
0.490
-.0451772
.0922515
ccoml
-30.70544
10.53293
-2.915
0.007
-52.18749
-9.223391
cons
6.652871
3.519086
1.891
0.068
I
-.5243513
13.83009
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
list year co2 pco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
39.
1998
1484
1480.233
14
Tech1.log
151099
/
* current and lagged prices * /
drop pdco2 pco2
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool ccoml ccom if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( ( 5,
30) =
19.95
Model
32921.1425
5
6584.2285
Prob > F
II
0.0000
Residual
9901.98166
30
330.066055
R-squared
Il
0.7688
Adj R-squared
=
0.7302
Total
42823.1242
35
1223.51783
Root MSE
=
18.168
.
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2162079
.0359355
6.017
0.000
.1428178
.2895979
cheat
.0321365
.0148562
2.163
0.039
.001796
.062477
ccool
.0136472
.0303961
0.449
0.657
-.0484298
.0757243
ccoml
-15.46589
10.78453
-1.434
0.162
-37.49085
6.559061
ccom
-34.40684
11.75795
-2.926
0.006
-58.41978
-10.39391
cons
4.874915
3.213156
1.517
0.140
-1.687225
11.43705
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool ccoml ccom (dntek cheat ccool ccom1 cnetsum cnumel
> e cprpcoal) if year < 1998
(2SLS)
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
+
F( 5,
30) =
18.50
Model
32785.008
5
6557.0016
Prob > F
II
0.0000
Residual
10038.1162
30
334.603873
R-squared
II
0.7656
+
Adj R-squared
=
0.7265
Total
42823.1242
35
1223.51783
Root MSE
=
18.292
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
ccom
-41.95803
26.2134
-1.601
0.120
-95.49294
11.57688
dntek
.2066919
.0466667
4.429
0.000
.1113859
.301998
cheat
.0318631
.014982
2.127
0.042
.0012659
.0624604
ccool
.0114767
.031334
0.366
0.717
-.0525158
.0754692
ccom1
-12.12131
15.00713
-0.808
0.426
-42.76996
18.52735
cons
4.484711
3.453538
1.299
0.204
-2.568353
11.53778
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
list year co2 pco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
39.
1998
1484
1484.769
15
Tech1.log
151099
log close
16
Hiteck V-A
Nou- Hitek
Growth
(Billious)
(Billion1992)
1953:3
1957:3
1960:2
1969:4
7.269
3385.3
1973:4
9.556
3937.5
K 3.850 (69-75)
1980:1
22.15
4656.85
2.378 (73-81)
1981:3
28.73
4724.3
2.808 (81-90\
1990:3
80.71
6061.39
CO2
1953
684.9
2.180
1953-1990 =>1.843%/year
1857
746.6
1.811
1960
787.9
3.940
1969
1115.6
3.454
1973
1277.9
-0.216
1981
1256
0.773
(990
1346.1
Possible CO2 Growth ,ats:
1981-1990
0.773 %
1953-1990
1.843%
75% GDP (81-90)
2.1790
75% NH-GDP
2.119
Dates of Peaks
Jul 1953
Aug 1957
Ap, 1960
Dec 1969
Nov 1973
Jou 1980
Jul 1981
Jul 1990
Choined $ 1992 real GDP (billious)
Quouter
Value
Growth Rate
1953:3
1887.4
2.631
1957:3
2094.0
2.904
1960:2
2265.5
N
4.342
1969:4
3392.6
3.857
1973:4
3947.1
1980:1
4679.0
2.426
1981:3
)
4753.0
2.820
1990:3
6142.1
Tech3.log 061099
/
> *** Detrend the series
>
*
/
sort year
gen dntek = nonhitek [_n] - 1.02808 *nonhitek - 1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen tntek = 1.02808 nonhitek [_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cheat = htdgyear [_n] - htdgyear[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen ccool = cldgyear [_n] - cldgyear[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cfoss = ffppcomr [_n] - ffppcomr [_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen celec = eleprrer [_n] - eleprrer [_n-1]
(12 missing values generated)
gen cnumref = numrefin [n] - numrefin[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen crefcap = refincap - refincap[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cnetsum = netsumca [n] - netsumca[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cextra = extralos [_n] - extralos [_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cpdctu = cpvtyund [n] - cpvtyund[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
gen cpdcts = cpvtysur [n] - cpvtysur [_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
gen cnumele = numeleut [n] - numeleut[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen propcoal = hrscoal/hrstotal
gen cprpcoal = propcoal[_n] - propcoal [_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen celecl = celec[_n-1]
(13 missing values generated)
gen cfossl = cfoss[_n-1]
1
Tech3.log 061099
(2 missing values generated)
/ * 1 * /
gen tco2 = co2 [_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [_n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celec1 if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31) =
21.19
Model
30487.8661
4
7621.96653
Prob > F
If
0.0000
Residual
11148.4168
31
359.62635
R-squared
=
0.7322
Adj R-squared
=
0.6977
Total
41636.2829
35
1189.60808
Root MSE
=
18.964
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2565274
.0338437
7.580
0.000
.1875027
.325552
cheat
.0323265
.0154464
2.093
0.045
.0008234
.0638296
ccool
.0240597
.0315356
0.763
0.451
- -.0402575
.088377
celecl
-35.23996
9.478494
-3.718
0.001
-54.57148
-15.90844
cons
15.42274
3.291186
4.686
0.000
8.710317
22.13515
predict pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
50.
1998
1484
1482.271
2.670949
1479.6
/ * 1.0025 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.0025 * co2 [n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [ n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celec1 if year < 1998
2
Tech3.log 061099
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31)
=
21.66
Model
30935.9298
4
7733.98246
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
11070.3422
31
357.107812
R-squared
=
0.7365
Adj R-squared
=
0.7025
Total
42006.272
35
1200.1792
Root MSE
=
18.897
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2582568
.033725
7.658
0.000
.1894743
.3270393
cheat
.0325223
.0153922
2.113
0.043
.0011297
.0639148
ccool
.0243854
.031425
0.776
0.444
-.0397063
.088477
celecl
-35.58695
9.445245
-3.768
0.001
-54.85065
-16.32324
cons
12.38091
3.279642
3.775
0.001
5.692039
19.06979
-
predict pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
50.
1998
1484
1482.905
- .3943477
1483.299
/ * 1.005 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.005*co2 [ n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celecl if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31)
=
22.11
Model
31387.3978
4
7846.84945
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
11002.282
31
354.912323
R-squared
=
0.7404
Adj R-squared
=
0.7070
Total
42389.6798
35
1211.13371
Root MSE
= 18.839
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2599864
.0336211
7.733
0.000
.1914157
.3285572
cheat
.0327182
.0153448
2.132
0.041
.0014222
.0640141
ccool
.0247109
.0313282
0.789
0.436
-.0391834
.0886052
3
Tech3.log 061099
celec1
I
-35.9339
9.416166
-3.816
0.001
-55.1383
-16.72951
cons
9.339088
3.269544
2.856
0.008
2.670808
16.00737
predict pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
50.
1998
1484
1483.538
-3.459741
1486.998
/ * 1.0075 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.0075*co2 [ n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [ n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celecl if year < 1998
Source I
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31) =
22.55
Model
31842.2195
4
7960.55487
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
10944.2143
31
353.039172
R-squared
=
0.7442
+
Adj R-squared
=
0.7112
Total
42786.4338
35
1222.46954
Root MSE
=
18.789
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
+
dntek
.261716
.0335323
7.805
0.000
.1933264
.3301055
cheat
.032914
.0153043
2.151
0.039
.0017008
.0641273
ccool
.0250365
.0312454
0.801
0.429
-.038689
.088762
celec1
-36.28086
9.391285
-3.863
0.001
-55.43451
-17.12721
cons
6.297263
3.260905
1.931
0.063
-.3533966
12.94792
predict pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
4
Tech3.log 061099
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
50.
1998
1484
1484.172
-6.525086
1490.697
/ * 1.01 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.01*co2 [ n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [ n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celecl if year < 1998
Source I
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
+
F( 4,
31) =
22.97
Model
32300.4537
4
8075.11342
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
10896.1744
31
351.489496
R-squared
=
0.7478
+
Adj R-squared
=
0.7152
Total
43196.6281
35
1234.18937
Root MSE
=
18.748
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2634457
.0334586
7.874
0.000
.1952064
.331685
cheat
.0331099
.0152706
2.168
0.038
.0019652
.0642546
ccool
.025362
.0311768
0.813
0.422
-.0382235
.0889475
celecl
-36.62782
9.370651
-3.909
0.000
-55.73939
-17.51625
cons
3.255445
3.25374
1.001
0.325
-3.380602
9.891492
predict pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
50.
1998
1484
1484.806
-9.590449
1494.396
/ * 1.015 - * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.015*co2 [ n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [ n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
5
Tech3.log 061099
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celecl if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31)
=
23.78
Model
33226.9219
4
8306.73046
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
10830.1123
31
349.358461
R-squared
=
0.7542
Adj R-squared
=
0.7225
Total
44057.0341
35
1258.7724
Root MSE
=
18.691
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2669046
.033357
8.001
0.000
.
.1988725
.3349367
cheat
.0335016
.0152243
2.201
0.035
.0024515
.0645517
ccool
.0260131
.0310821
0.837
0.409
- -.0373793
.0894056
celecl
-37.32168
9.342201
-3.995
0.000
-56.37523
-18.26814
cons
-2.828188
3.243862
-0.872
0.390
-9.444088
3.787711
predict pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
50.
1998
1484
1486.073
-15.72112
1501.794
/ * 1.02 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.02*co2 [ n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celecl if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31) =
24.51
Model
34166.9319
4
8541.73298
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
10804.0909
31
348.51906
R-squared
=
0.7598
Adj R-squared
=
0.7288
Total
44971.0228
35
1284.88637
Root MSE
=
18.669
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval ]
dntek
2703637
.0333169
8.115
0.000
.2024134
.3383141
cheat
.0338932
.015206
2.229
0.033
.0028804
.064906
6
Tech3.log 061099
ccool
.0266642
.0310448
0.859
0.397
-.036652
.0899804
celecl
-38.0156
9.330971
-4.074
0.000
-57.04624
-18.98496
cons
-8.911834
3.239962
-2.751
0.010
-15.51978
-2.303887
predict pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
50.
1998
1484
1487.34
-21.8518
1509.192
/ * 1.025 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.025*co2 [ n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celecl if year < 1998
Source I
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
+
F( 4,
31) =
25.16
Model
35120.4497
4
8780.11243
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
10818.1052
31
348.971134
R-squared
=
0.7645
Adj R-squared
=
0.7341
Total
45938.5549
35
1312.53014
Root MSE
=
18.681
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2738227
.0333385
8.213
0.000
.2058283
.3418171
cheat
.0342849
.0152158
2.253
0.031
.0032521
.0653178
ccool
.0273154
.0310649
0.879
0.386
-.0360419
.0906727
celecl
-38.70957
9.337021
-4.146
0.000
-57.75255
-19.66659
cons
-14.99549
3.242063
-4.625
0.000
-21.60772
-8.38326
predict pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
7
Tech3.log 061099
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
50.
1998
1484
1488.607
-27.9825
1516.59
/ * 1.03 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.03*co2 [_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [_n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celecl if year < 1998
Source I
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31) =
25.72
Model
36087.49
4
9021.8725
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
10872.1551
31
350.71468
R-squared
=
0.7685
Adj R-squared
=
0.7386
Total
46959.6451
35
1341.70415
Root MSE
=
18.727
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.277282
.0334217
8.296
0.000
.209118
.3454461
cheat
.0346766
.0152538
2.273
0.030
.0035663
.0657869
ccool
.0279666
.0311424
0.898
0.376
-.0355488
.0914819
celecl
-39.40348
9.360317
-4.210
0.000
-58.49397
-20.31299
cons
-21.07913
3.250152
-6.486
0.000
-27.70786
-14.4504
predict pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
50.
1998
1484
1489.875
-34.11317
1523.988
/ * 1.035 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.035*co2 [ n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [ n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
8
Tech3.log 061099
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celecl if year < 1998
Source I
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
+
F( 4,
31) =
26.20
Model
37067.9516
4
9266.98789
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
10966.2552
31
353.750167
R-squared
=
0.7717
Adj R-squared
=
0.7422
Total
48034.2067
35
1372.40591
Root MSE
=
18.808
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.280741
.033566
8.364
0.000
.2122826
.3491993
cheat
.0350684
.0153197
2.289
0.029
.0038237
.066313
ccool
.0286177
.0312769
0.915
0.367
-.0351719
.0924074
celecl
-40.09737
9.400737
-4.265
0.000
-59.2703
-20.92444
cons
-27.16277
3.264187
-8.321
0.000
-33.82012
-20.50541
predict pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
50.
1998
1484
1491.142
.
-40.24387
1531.386
/ * 1.04 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.04*co2 [ n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [ n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celecl if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31)
=
26.57
Model
38061.9623
4
9515.49057
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
11100.3842
31
358.076911
R-squared
=
0.7742
+
Adj R-squared
=
0.7451
Total
-
49162.3465
35
1404.63847
Root MSE
= 18.923
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval] ]
+
dntek I
.2842001
.0337707
8.416
0.000
.2153243
.3530758
9
Tech3.log 061099
cheat
.0354601
.0154131
2.301
0.028
.0040249
.0668952
ccool
.0292689
.0314676
0.930
0.359
-.0349097
.0934474
celec1
-40.7913
9.458053
-4.313
0.000
-60.08112
-21.50147
cons
-33.24643
3.284089
-10.123
0.000
-39.94437
-26.54848
predict pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
50.
1998
1484
1492.409
-46.37459
1538.784
/ * 1.045 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.045*co2[ n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [_n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celecl if year < 1998
Source I
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31) =
26.86
Model
39069.4451
4
9767.36128
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
11274.5624
31
363.695561
R-squared
=
0.7760
Adj R-squared
=
0.7472
Total
I
50344.0075
35
1438.40022
Root MSE
=
19.071
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2876592
.0340346
8.452
0.000
.2182451
3570732
cheat
.0358517
.0155335
2.308
0.028
.0041709
.0675326
ccool
.02992
.0317135
0.943
0.353
-.0347601
.0946001
celecl
-41.48521
9.531968
-4.352
0.000
-60.92578
-22.04463
cons
-39.33006
3.309754
-11.883
0.000
-46.08035
-32.57977
predict pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
sort year
10
Tech3.log 061099
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
50.
1998
1484
1493.677
-52.50525
1546.182
/* 1.05 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.05*co2 [ n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [_n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celecl if year < 1998
Source I
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31) =
27.04
Model
40090.4755
4
10022.6189
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
11488.7676
31
370.605405
R-squared
= 0.7773
Adj R-squared
=
0.7485
Total
51579.243
35
1473.69266
Root MSE
= 19.251
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
. 2911184
.0343564
8.473
0.000
.2210481
.3611887
cheat
.0362435
.0156804
2.311
0.028
.0042631
.0682238
ccool
.0305712
.0320133
0.955
0.347
-.0347205
.0958628
celecl
-42.17914
9.622091
-4.384
0.000
-61.80352
-22.55475
cons
-45.41371
3.341047
-13.593
0.000
-52.22782
-38.5996
predict pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
50.
1998
1484
1494.944
-58.63597
1553.58
/ * 1.055 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.055*co2 [ n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [ n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
11
Tech3.log 061099
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celecl if year < 1998
Source I
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
+
F( 4,
31) =
27.14
Model
41124.9411
4
10281.2353
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
11743.0141
31
378.806907
R-squared
=
0.7779
Adj R-squared
=
0.7492
Total
52867.9552
35
1510.51301
Root MSE
=
19.463
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
+
dntek
.2945774
.0347345
8.481
0.000
.223736
.3654188
cheat
.0366352
.0158529
2.311
0.028
.0043029
.0689674
ccool
.0312222
.0323656
0.965
0.342
-.0347879
.0972324
celecl
-42.87306
9.727977
-4.407
0.000
-62.7134
-23.03272
cons
-51.49735
3.377813
-15.246
0.000
-58.38645
-44.60826
predict pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
50.
1998
1484
1496.211
-64.76665
1560.978
/* 1.06 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.06*co2[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [ n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celecl if year < 1998
Source I
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31) =
27.15
Model
42172.8941
4
10543.2235
Prob > F +
=
0.0000
Residual
12037.3103
31
388.300331
R-squared
=
0.7780
Adj R-squared
=
0.7493
Total
54210.2044
35
1548.86298
Root MSE
=
19.705
dco2
|
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>It|
[95% Conf. Interval]
+
12
Tech3.log 061099
dntek
.2980364
.035167
8.475
0.000
.2263128
.3697601
cheat
.0370268
.0160504
2.307
0.028
.0042919
.0697617
ccool
.0318734
.0327687
0.973
0.338
-.0349588
.0987056
celecl
-43.56694
9.849121
-4.423
0.000
-63.65435
-23.47952
cons
-57.58099
3.419878
-16.837
0.000
-64.55587
-50.6061
-
predict pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
50.
1998
1484
1497.479
-70.89732
1568.376
/ * 1.065 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.065*co2 [ n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [ n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celecl if year < 1998
Source I
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
+
F( 4,
31) =
27.08
Model
43234.3634
4
10808.5908
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
12371.6276
31
399.084762
R-squared
=
0.7775
+
Adj R-squared
=
0.7488
Total
55605.991
35
1588.7426
Root MSE
=
19.977
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t| I
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.3014954
.035652
8.457
0.000
.2287826
.3742082
cheat
.0374186
.0162717
2.300
0.028
.0042322
.070605
ccool
.0325246
.0332206
0.979
0.335
-.0352293
.1002785
celec1
-44.26088
9.984956
-4.433
0.000
-64.62533
-23.89643
cons
-63.66465
3.467043
-18.363
0.000
-70.73573
-56.59357
predict pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
sort year
13
Tech3.log 061099
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
50.
1998
1484
1498.746
-77.02805
1575.774
/ * 1.07 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.07*co2 [ n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celecl if year < 1998
Source I
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
+
F( 4,
31) =
26.94
Model
44309.3824
4
11077.3456
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
12745.9942
31
411.161103
R-squared
II
0.7766
Adj R-squared
=
0.7478
Total
57055.3766
35
1630.15362
Root MSE
=
20.277
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
+
dntek
.3049547
.0361874
8.427
0.000
.23115
.3787595
cheat
.0378102
.0165161
2.289
0.029
.0041255
.071495
ccool
.0331757
.0337195
0.984
0.333
- -.0355957
.1019471
celecl
-44.95481
10.1349
-4.436
0.000
-65.62508
-24.28454
cons
-69.74829
3.519109
-19.820
0.000
-76.92556
-62.57102
predict pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
50.
1998
1484
1500.013
-83.15871
1583.172
/ * 1.075 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.075*co2 [n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [ n] - tco2
14
Tech3.log 061099
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celecl if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31) =
26.73
Model
45397.8136
4
11349.4534
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
13160.4247
31
424.529828
R-squared
=
0.7753
Adj R-squared
=
0.7463
Total
58558.2383
35
1673.09252
Root MSE
=
20.604
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.3084137
.036771
8.387
0.000
.2334187
.3834087
cheat
.0382019
.0167824
2.276
0.030
.0039739
.0724299
ccool
.0338268
.0342633
0.987
0.331
- -.0360536
.1037073
celecl
-45.6487
10.29835
-4.433
0.000
-66.65233
-24.64508
cons
-75.83194
3.575862
-21.207
0.000
-83.12496
-68.53892
predict pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
50.
1998
1484
1501.281
-89.28941
1590.57
/ * 1.08 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.08*co2 [ n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [ n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celecl if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
+
F( 4,
31) =
26.47
Model
46499.7699
4
11624.9425
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
I
13614.8701
31
439.189357
R-squared
=
0.7735
Adj R-squared
=
0.7443
Total
60114.64
35
1717.56114
Root MSE
Il
20.957
dco2 I
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
15
Tech3.log 061099
dntek
.3118727
.0374005
8.339
0.000
2355939
.3881516
cheat
.0385936
.0170697
2.261
0.031
.0037797
.0734076
ccool
.0344779
.0348499
0.989
0.330
-.0365988
.1055547
celecl
-46.34262
10.47465
-4.424
0.000
-67.70581
-24.97943
cons
-81.91558
3.637078
-22.522
0.000
-89.33344
-74.49771
predict pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
50.
1998
1484
1502.548
-95.42011
1597.968
/* 1.085 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.085*co2 [ n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celecl if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31) =
26.15
Model
47615.2361
4
11903.809
Prob > F
If
0.0000
Residual
14109.3557
31
455.140507
R-squared
II
0.7714
Adj R-squared
=
0.7419
Total
61724.5918
35
1763.55977
Root MSE
=
21.334
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>Itl
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.3153318
.0380736
8.282
0.000
.2376801
.3929836
cheat
.0389853
.017377
2.244
0.032
.0035448
.0744259
ccool
.0351292
.0354771
0.990
0.330
-.0372268
.1074852
celecl
-47.03655
10.66317
-4.411
0.000
-68.78422
-25.28887
cons
-87.99921
3.702537
-23.767
0.000
-95.55059
-80.44784
predict pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
16
Tech3.log 061099
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
50.
1998
1484
1503.815
-101.5508
1605.366
/ * 1.09 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.09*co2[ n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [ n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celecl if year < 1998
Source I
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
+
F( 4,
31) =
25.80
Model
48744.2128
4
12186.0532
Prob > F
II
0.0000
Residual
14643.879
31
472.383192
R-squared
Il
0.7690
Adj R-squared
Il
0.7392
Total
63388.0918
35
1811.08834
Root MSE
= 21.734
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
. 3187909
.0387881
8.219
0.000
.239682
.3978999
cheat
.0393771
.0177031
2.224
0.034
.0032715
.0754827
ccool
.0357802
.0361429
0.990
0.330
-.0379336
.1094941
celecl
-47.73049
10.86328
-4.394
0.000
-69.88629
-25.5747
cons
-94.08287
3.772019
-24.942
0.000
-101.776
-86.38978
predict pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
50.
1998
1484
1505.082
-107.6815
1612.764
log close
17
Tech2.log 141099
/
>
*** Detrend using series as a function of time and time squared
>
/
sort year
gen t = year - 1959
gen t2 = t^2
reg nonhitek t t2 if year > 1959 & year < 1998
Source I
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
38
F( 2,
35) = 3373.05
Model
70241913.8
2
35120956.9
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
364428.018
35
10412.2291
R-squared
= 0.9948
Adj R-squared
=
0.9945
Total
70606341.9
37
1908279.51
Root MSE
= 102.04
nonhitek I
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
+
t
108.6737
6.195223
17.542
0.000
96.09674
121.2507
t2
.3910398
.1540643
2.538
0.016
.0782728
.7038069
cons
2175.67
52.39272
41.526
0.000
2069.307
2282.033
pred tntek
reg co2 t t2 if year > 1959 & year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
38
F( 2,
35) =
141.13
Model
1173434.20
2
586717.098
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
145503.137
35
4157.23248
R-squared
= 0.8897
+
Adj R-squared
=
0.8834
Total
1318937.33
37
35646.9549
Root MSE
=
64.477
co2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
t
33.95598
3.914598
8.674
0.000
26.00892
41.90304
t2
- -.4776876
.0973492
-4.907
0.000
.6753169
- -.2800584
cons
776.02
33.10558
23.441
0.000
708.8121
843.2279
pred tco2
gen dntek = nonhitek - tntek
gen dco2 = co2 - tco2
1
Tech2.log 141099
dntek
.3249791
.1333193
2.438
0.021
.0527047
.5972535
cheat
.025129
.0518355
0.485
0.631
-.0807331
.1309912
ccool
.0122978
.1024298
0.120
0.905
-.1968917
.2214873
celecl
16.67516
42.00755
0.397
0.694
-69.11569
102.466
cons
3.680069
11.4322
0.322
0.750
-19.6676
27.02774
predict pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
gen res = dco2 - pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
sort year
gen resl = res [_n-1]
(14 missing values generated)
reg res resl, noconstant
Source I
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
+
F( 1,
35)
=
170.75
Model
101449.498
1
101449.498
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
20795.2708
35
594.150595
R-squared
=
0.8299
Adj R-squared
=
0.8250
Total
122244.769
36
3395.68803
Root MSE
= 24.375
res
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
resl
.9551859
.073099
13.067
0.000
.8067871
1.103585
predict reshat
(14 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(13 missing values generated)
gen co2hat = tco2 + pdco2 + reshat
(14 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 co2hat if year > 1959
year
co2
pco2
co2hat
12.
1960
787.9
13.
1961
793.7
14.
1962
826.6
861.1526
15.
1963
858.6
882.0838
849.0797
16.
1964
895.2
914.7574
892.326
17.
1965
934.5
969.9254
951.2444
18.
1966
985.7
1017.398
983.5597
3
Tech2.log 141099
19.
1967
1011.5
1027.084
996.8068
20.
1968
1069.2
1074.772
1059.887
21.
1969
1115.6
1087.439
1082.116
22.
1970
1149
1069.444
1096.343
23.
1971
1162.5
1097.739
1173.73
24.
1972
1223.7
1156.702
1218.561
25.
1973
1277.9
1195.143
1259.139
26.
1974
1233.1
1187.084
1266.132
27.
1975
1197
1173.222
1217.176
28.
1976
1269.5
1206.286
1228.998
29.
1977
1307.4
1240.279
1300.66
30.
1978
1320.9
1297.921
1362.034
31.
1979
1337.7
1291.802
1313.752
32.
1980
1289.4
1275.659
1319.5
33.
1981
1256
1284.841
1297.966
34.
1982
1189.1
1225.455
1197.907
35.
1983
1182.5
1249.35
1214.624
36.
1984
1245.2
1309.361
1245.507
37.
1985
1244.6
1338.548
1277.262
38.
1986
1245.9
1348.877
1259.14
39.
1987
1286.6
1371.523
1273.161
40.
1988
1348.6
1409.235
1328.117
41.
1989
1360.8
1427.823
1369.905
42.
1990
1346.1
1395.736
1331.717
43.
1991
1330.8
1359.754
1312.342
44.
1992
1352.1
1367.159
1339.503
45.
1993
1379.8
1374.64
1360.255
46.
1994
1398.4
1377.574
1382.504
47.
1995
1411.7
1368.92
1388.812
48.
1996
1460.6
1373.958
1414.821
49.
1997
1479.6
1374.753
1457.512
50.
1998
1484
1373.336
1473.484
/ * Get the standard errors correct * /
drop pco2 pdco2
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celec1 cnetsum cnumele cprpcoal if year > 1961 & y
> ear < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 7,
28) =
2.00
Model
47587.6488
7
6798.23554
Prob > F
II
0.0903
Residual
94978.2503
28
3392.08037
R-squared
II
0.3338
Adj R-squared
II
0.1672
Total
142565.899
35
4073.3114
Root MSE
II
58.242
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2556151
.134049
1.907
0.067
-.0189719
.5302021
cheat
.01618
.0569826
0.284
0.779
-.1005436
.1329035
ccool
-.0196871
.1108926
-0.178
0.860
-.2468403
.2074661
celecl
15.9527
35.29283
0.452
0.655
-56.34137
88.24678
cnetsum
1.974694
1.136384
1.738
0.093
-.3530843
4.302471
cnumele
.2231086
.3302875
0.675
0.505
-.4534547
.8996719
4
Tech2.log 141099
cprpcoal
-1.098215
740.5721
-0.001
0.999
-1518.091
1515.895
cons
-40.90295
23.1374
-1.768
0.088
-88.29775
6.49186
predict jdco2
(13 missing values generated)
reg celec dntek cheat ccool celecl cnetsum cnumele cprpcoal if year > 1961 &
> year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 7,
28) =
3.75
Model
2.00272606
7
.286103723
Prob > F
=
0.0055
Residual
2.13727558
28
.076331271
R-squared
=
0.4838
Adj R-squared
=
0.3547
Total
4.14000164
35
.118285761
Root MSE
=
.27628
celec
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.000102
.0006359
0.160
0.874
-.0012006
.0014045
cheat
.0002875
.0002703
1.064
0.297
-.0002662
.0008412
ccool
.0005813
.000526
1.105
0.279
-.0004962
.0016589
celecl
.2379135
.1674189
1.421
0.166
-.1050286
.5808557
cnetsum
.0131577
.0053907
2.441
0.021
.0021154
.0242
cnumele
-.0047249
.0015668
-3.016
0.005
-.0079343
-.0015154
cprpcoal
4.046307
3.51306
1.152
0.259
-3.149869
11.24248
cons
.0293055
.1097571
0.267
0.791
-.1955218
.2541327
predict jcelec
(13 missing values generated)
newey jdco2 dntek cheat ccool celecl jcelec if year > 1961 & year < 1998, t (y
> ear) lag (1)
Regression with Newey-West standard errors
Number of obs
=
36
maximum lag : 1
F( 5,
30)
=
16.78
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Newey-West
jdco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.3249791
.0651013
4.992
0.000
.1920245
.4579337
cheat
.025129
.0196122
1.281
0.210
-.0149243
.0651824
ccool
.0122978
.0312907
0.393
0.697
-.0516064
.076202
celecl
16.67517
16.87041
0.988
0.331
-17.77882
51.12915
jcelec
10.35778
28.35256
0.365
0.717
-47.54587
68.26143
cons
3.680069
6.307196
0.583
0.564
-9.200944
16.56108
log close
5
Tech4.log 141099
/
> *** Detrend the series
>
*
/
sort year
gen dntek = nonhitek [_n] - 1.02808 *nonhitek - 1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2[n] - 1.007727*co2[_n - 1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen tntek = 1.02808*nonhitek[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen tco2 = 1.007727*co2[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cheat = htdgyear [_n] - htdgyear [_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen ccool = cldgyear[_n] - cldgyear[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cfoss = ffppcomr [_n] - ffppcomr[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cres = eleprrer [_n] - eleprrer{_n-1}
(1 missing value generated)
gen ccom = eleprcor[ n] - eleprcor[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen ccoal = ffppcoar [ n] - ffppcoar[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cgas = ffppngr[ n] - ffppngr[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen coil = ffppoilr[ n] - ffppoilr[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cnumref = numrefin - numrefin[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen crefcap = refincap [n] - refincap[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cnetsum = netsumca [n] - netsumca[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cextra = extralos [_n] - extralos[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
1
Tech4.log 141099
gen cpdctu = cpvtyund[_n] - cpvtyund[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
gen cpdcts = cpvtysur [_n] - cpvtysur [_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
gen cnumele = numeleut [ n] - numeleut[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen propcoal = hrscoal/hrstotal
gen cprpcoal = propcoal [ n] - propcoal [_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cresl = cres [_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
gen ccoml = ccom [ n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
gen cfossl = cfoss[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
gen ccoall = ccoal [ n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
gen cgasl = cgas [_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
gen coill = coil [ n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
/
>
Residential Electricity
>
*
/
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool cres1 cres (dntek cheat ccool cres1 cnetsum cnumel
> e cprpcoal) if year < 1998 & year > 1960
(2SLS)
Source I
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 5,
30) =
20.35
Model
33204.5064
5
6640.90127
Prob > F
II
0.0000
Residual
9618.61781
30
320.620594
R-squared
=
0.7754
Adj R-squared
=
0.7380
Total
42823.1242
35
1223.51783
Root MSE
= 17.906
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
cres
-38.19457
25.0231
-1.526
0.137
-89.29855
12.90941
dntek
.2037115
.0497293
4.096
0.000
.1021506
.3052723
cheat
.0284406
.0148786
1.912
0.066
-.0019455
.0588268
ccool
.0136161
.0307071
0.443
0.661
-.0490961
.0763283
cresl
-20.30153
13.78901
-1.472
0.151
-48.46244
7.859374
2
Tech4.log 141099
cons I
3.802331
3.430736
1.108
0.277
-3.204166
10.80883
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
test cres cresl
(1)
cres = 0.0
( 2)
cresl = 0.0
F( 2,
30) =
9.40
Prob > F =
0.0007
gen res = abs (co2 - pco2)
(2 missing values generated)
gen pres = abs (co2 - pco2) / co2
(2 missing values generated)
sort year
egen sres = sum (res) if year > 1961 & year < 1998
(3 missing values generated)
egen spres = sum (pres) if year > 1961 & year < 1998
(3 missing values generated)
replace sres = sres/36
(36 real changes made)
replace spres = spres/36
(36 real changes made)
list sres spres if year == 1997
sres
spres
6.
12.53774
.0103448
sort year
list year co2 pco2
year
co2
pco2
1.
1960
787.9
2.
1961
793.7
3.
1962
826.6
833.2172
4.
1963
858.6
868.6913
5.
1964
895.2
896.0519
3
Tech4.log 141099
6.
1965
934.5
953.1162
7.
1966
985.7
1010.504
8.
1967
1011.5
1012.588
9.
1968
1069.2
1056.961
10.
1969
1115.6
1119.938
11.
1970
1149
1137.622
12.
1971
1162.5
1169.539
13.
1972
1223.7
1197.881
14.
1973
1277.9
1253.107
15.
1974
1233.1
1228.765
16.
1975
1197
1195.57
17.
1976
1269.5
1231.474
18.
1977
1307.4
1286.804
19.
1978
1320.9
1353.797
20.
1979
1337.7
1335.69
21.
1980
1289.4
1297.376
22.
1981
1256
1261.197
23.
1982
1189.1
1200.138
24.
1983
1182.5
1205.921
25.
1984
1245.2
1242.179
26.
1985
1244.6
1279.089
27.
1986
1245.9
1261.297
28.
1987
1286.6
1276.935
29.
1988
1348.6
1333.497
30.
1989
1360.8
1380.504
31.
1990
1346.1
1348.214
32.
1991
1330.8
1327.44
33.
1992
1352.1
1345.84
34.
1993
1379.8
1371.45
35.
1994
1398.4
1396.819
36.
1995
1411.7
1406.316
37.
1996
1460.6
1431.828
38.
1997
1479.6
1476.042
39.
1998
1484
1484.589
/
> *** Summary Stats
>
/
su dco2 dntek cheat ccool cfoss cres ccom ccoal cgas coil cnumref crefcap cne
> tsum cextra cpdctu cpdcts cnumele cprpcoal if year < 1998
Variable
Obs
Mean
Std. Dev.
Min
Max
dco2
37
9.487894
34.52911
-76.60513
63.25078
dntek
37
.4687974
94.94416
-235.7253
192.0416
cheat
37
-4.918919
216.0386
-710
353
ccool
37
-1.351351
104.9924
-291
256
cfoss
37
.0108108
.3211125
-1.15
.8200002
cres
37
-.1
.3391166
-.7000008
1
ccom
37
-.0945946
.3299377
-.6000004
1
ccoal
37
-.0018919
.1437946
-.13
.74
cgas
37
.0362162
.2346079
-.71
.49
coil
37
.0143243
.816056
-2.61
2.22
cnumref
37
-3.918919
10.48644
-43
14
crefcap
37
.1516216
.4648567
-1.029999
1.16
4
Tech4.log 141099
cnetsum
37
14.72432
9.749998
2
43.79999
cextra
37
.0113514
.0297361
-.04
.05
cpdctu
37
-.472973
3.286539
-19.91
.26
cpdcts
37
-.3635135
3.328039
-19.95
.8099995
cnumele
37
63.97297
42.49607
-54
137
cprpcoal
37
.0010541
.0144497
- -.0297088
.0360969
log close
5
1/7/00
Hi-Tek V-A
GDP
Nou-Hitek
(Billinus 19925)
(
"
)
( "
\
1981Q3
28.7287
4591.93
4563.20
1990Q3
80.7081
6112.29
6 031.58
GDP
(1996 chaived Billious)
1992 1
1981 Q3
6643.9 5030.0
1996 = 1.0954
1990Q3
6643.9 6695.4
Tsend Non- Wtek GDP = 3.148%
SAAR 1992#
1992 NHTK2
(1996$)
(1992)
5/24/00
19812023
H.Tek VA
DP
GDP
Non-Hikk
1981 a3
28.25
5056.8
4616.86
4588.61
1990Q3
79.45
6719.4
6134.81
6055.36
= 3.13% Trend.
After GDP revisions.
Tech1.log
1/7/00
/********
>
*** Detrend the series
>
*
/
sort year
gen dntek = nonhitek [_n] - 1.03148 *nonhitek - 1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2[_n] - 1.007727* co2 [_n - 1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen tntek = 1.03148*nonhitek[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen tco2 = 1.007727*co2[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cheat = htdgyear [_n] - htdgyear [_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen ccool = cldgyear [_n] - cldgyear[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cfoss = ffppcomr [n] - ffppcomr [_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cres = eleprrer [_n] - eleprrer[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen ccom = eleprcor [n] - eleprcor[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen ccoal = ffppcoar [_n] - ffppcoar[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cgas = ffppngr [_n] - ffppngr[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen coil = ffppoilr[_n] - ffppoilr[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cnumref = numrefin [n] - numrefin[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen crefcap = refincap [ n] - refincap[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cnetsum = netsumca [n] - netsumca[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cextra = extralos [_n] - extralos[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
1
Tech1.log
1/7/00
.
gen cpdctu = cpvtyund[_n - cpvtyund[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
gen cpdcts = cpvtysur[_n] - cpvtysur[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
gen cnumele = numeleut [n] - numeleut[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen propcoal = hrscoal/hrstotal
gen cprpcoal = propcoal[_n] - propcoal [_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cresl = cres [_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
gen ccoml = ccom [_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
gen cfoss1 = cfoss [_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
gen ccoall = ccoal [_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
-
gen cgasl = cgas [ n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
gen coill = coil [n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
/*******
> *** Fossil Index
>
*******
/
/ * Current Foss Only * /
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool cfoss if year < 1998
Source I
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
37
F( 4,
32) =
13.02
Model
I
26578.2509
4
6644.56272
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
16335.8787
32
510.49621
R-squared
= 0.6193
Adj R-squared
=
0.5718
Total
42914.1296
36
1192.05916
Root MSE
= 22.594
dco2 I
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
+
dntek
.2950632
.0444559
6.637
0.000
.2045095
.3856169
cheat
.0295247
.0180842
1.633
0.112
-.0073116
.066361
ccool
.0267653
.0377781
0.708
0.484
- -.0501861
.1037168
cfoss
-8.444157
12.12046
-0.697
0.491
-33.13272
16.2444
cons
10.76143
3.720339
2.893
0.007
3.18335
18.33951
2
Tech1.log
1/7/00
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool cfoss (dntek cheat ccool cnumre crefcap) if year <
>
1998
(2SLS)
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
37
F( 4,
32) =
11.15
Model
23761.1072
4
5940.2768
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
19153.0224
32
598.53195
R-squared
=
0.5537
Adj R-squared
=
0.4979
Total
42914.1296
36
1192.05916
Root MSE
=
24.465
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
cfoss
20.02845
25.45074
0.787
0.437
-31.81302
71.86991
dntek
.319671
.0516945
6.184
0.000
.2143728
.4249693
cheat
.030556
.0195974
1.559
0.129
-.0093627
.0704747
ccool
.0378712
.041781
0.906
0.371
-.0472338
.1229762
cons
10.55627
4.031438
2.618
0.013
2.344496
18.76804
predict pdco2
(1 missing value generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(1 missing value generated)
list year co2 pco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1466.833
/ * Lagged foss only * /
drop pdco2 pco2
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool cfoss1 if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31) =
14.05
Model
27597.0144
4
6899.25359
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
15218.6723
31
490.924914
R-squared
II
0.6446
Adj R-squared
=
0.5987
Total
42815.6867
35
1223.30533
Root MSE
=
22.157
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2694691
.0467843
5.760
0.000
.1740518
.3648864
cheat
.0278148
.0180136
1.544
0.133
-.0089242
.0645538
ccool
.0247151
.0371063
0.666
0.510
-.0509636
.1003938
cfossl
-21.19378
12.71484
-1.667
0.106
-47.12586
4.738296
cons
10.83366
3.69625
2.931
0.006
3.295114
18.37222
3
Tech1.log
1/7/00
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
list year co2 pco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1476.503
/ * Current and lagged foss * /
drop pdco2 pco2
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool cfoss1 cfoss if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 5,
30)
=
10.90
Model
27611.7716
5
5522.35431
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
15203.9152
30
506.797172
R-squared
II
0.6449
Adj R-squared
=
0.5857
Total
42815.6867
35
1223.30533
Root MSE
=
22.512
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2687645
.0477136
5.633
0.000
.1713203
.3662088
cheat
.0278002
.0183027
1.519
0.139
-.009579
.0651793
ccool
.0240458
.0379048
0.634
0.531
- -.0533661
.1014578
cfoss1
-20.42994
13.67229
-1.494
0.146
-48.35247
7.492595
cfoss
-2.181591
12.78464
-0.171
0.866
-28.29131
23.92813
cons
10.84626
3.756252
2.888
0.007
3.174971
18.51755
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool cfoss1 cfoss (dntek cheat ccool cfoss1 cnumre cref
> cap) if year < 1998
(2SLS)
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 5,
30) =
9.20
Model
24383.553
5
4876.71059
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
18432.1337
30
614.404458
R-squared
!!
0.5695
Adj R-squared
=
0.4978
Total
42815.6867
35
1223.30533
Root MSE
=
24.787
.
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
cfoss
30.08498
28.67437
1.049
0.302
-28.47588
88.64585
dntek
.2791855
.0531514
5.253
0.000
.1706359
.3877351
cheat
.0280164
.020153
1.390
0.175
-.0131415
.0691744
ccool
.0339446
.0424332
0.800
0.430
-.0527156
.1206047
cfoss1
-31.72751
17.41058
-1.822
0.078
-67.28467
3.82964
cons
10.65995
4.138365
2.576
0.015
2.208279
19.11162
4
Tech1.log
1/7/00
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
list year co2 pco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1467.56
/
> *** Coal Prices
>
*
/
/ * Current Coal Only * /
drop pdco2 pco2
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool ccoal if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
37
F( 4,
32) =
13.00
Model
26568.114
4
6642.0285
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
16346.0156
32
510.812988
R-squared
=
0.6191
Adj R-squared
=
0.5715
Total
42914.1296
36
1192.05916
Root MSE
II
22.601
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.293008
.0453409
6.462
0.000
.2006517
.3853644
cheat
.0300217
.0180866
1.660
0.107
-.0068196
.066863
ccool
.0238948
.0385666
0.620
0.540
-.0546627
.1024524
ccoal
-19.14481
28.06847
-0.682
0.500
-76.31841
38.0288
cons
10.62559
3.722092
2.855
0.007
3.043942
18.20725
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool ccoal (dntek cheat ccool cpdctu cpdcts) if year <
> 1998
(2SLS)
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
37
F( 4,
32) =
5.10
Model
-365.074834
4
-91.2687085
Prob > F
=
0.0027
Residual
43279.2044
32
1352.47514
R-squared
=
Adj R-squared =
.
Total
42914.1296
36
1192.05916
Root MSE
= 36.776
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
ccoal
-222.9577
230.2258
-0.968
0.340
-691.9122
245.9968
dntek
I
.1934355
.1326507
1.458
0.155
-.0767651
.4636361
5
Tech1.log
1/7/00
cheat
.0320567
.0295162
1.086
0.286
-.0280658
.0921792
ccool
-.0417282
.0960038
-0.435
0.667
-.2372816
.1538253
cons
9.827239
6.120645
1.606
0.118
-2.640107
22.29458
-
predict pdco2
(1 missing value generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(1 missing value generated)
list year co2 pco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1466.537
/ * Lagged foss only * /
drop pdco2 pco2
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool ccoall if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
+
F( 4,
31) =
12.26
Model
26235.1467
4
6558.78667
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
16580.54
31
534.85613
R-squared
=
0.6127
+
Adj R-squared
=
0.5628
Total
42815.6867
35
1223.30533
Root MSE
II
23.127
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
+
dntek
.3018354
.0452654
6.668
0.000
.209516
.3941549
cheat
.030036
.0187908
1.598
0.120
-.0082881
.06836
ccool
.030127
.0386135
0.780
0.441
-
-.0486257
.1088797
ccoall
-1.732004
27.50936
-0.063
0.950
-57.83772
54.37371
cons
10.67016
3.857248
2.766
0.009
2.803248
18.53707
-
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
list year co2 pco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1473.632
/ * Current and lagged foss * /
drop pdco2 pco2
6
Tech1.log
1/7/00
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool ccoall ccoal if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 5,
30) =
9.73
Model
26485.9716
5
5297.19431
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
16329.7152
30
544.323839
R-squared
=
0.6186
Adj R-squared
=
0.5550
Total
42815.6867
35
1223.30533
Root MSE
= 23.331
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.293909
.0471336
6.236
0.000
.1976494
.3901686
cheat
.0298546
.0189582
1.575
0.126
-.0088633
.0685725
ccool
.0236718
.0400977
0.590
0.559
-.0582186
.1055622
ccoall
5.093006
29.5169
0.173
0.864
-55.18855
65.37456
ccoal
-20.94069
30.84852
-0.679
0.502
-83.94177
42.06039
cons
10.62306
3.891856
2.730
0.011
2.67483
18.57129
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool ccoall ccoal (dntek cheat ccool ccoall cpdctu cpdc
> ts) if year < 1998
(2SLS)
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 5,
30) =
1.36
Model
-80248.9922
5 -16049.7984
Prob > F
=
0.2679
Residual
123064.679
30
4102.15596
R-squared
=
.
Adj R-squared
=
-
Total
42815.6867
35
1223.30533
Root MSE
=
64.048
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
ccoal
411.0347
655.8316
0.627
0.536
-928.3521
1750.421
dntek
. 4574188
.2780996
1.645
0.110
-.1105363
1.025374
cheat
.0335955
.0523484
0.642
0.526
-.0733142
.1405053
ccool
.1568329
.2287072
0.686
0.498
-.3102496
.6239153
ccoall
-135.6969
226.9204
-0.598
0.554
-599.1302
327.7365
cons
11.59459
10.78366
1.075
0.291
-10.42858
33.61777
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
list year co2 pco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1486.937
/*******
>
***
Oil Prices
7
Tech1.log
1/7/00
>
*******
/
/ * Current Coal Only * /
drop pdco2 pco2
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool coil if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
37
F( 4,
32) =
12.84
Model
26440.9343
4
6610.23358
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
16473.1953
32
514.787353
R-squared
=
0.6161
Adj R-squared
=
0.5682
Total
42914.1296
36
1192.05916
Root MSE
=
22.689
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.299496
.043824
6.834
0.000
.2102294
.3887626
cheat
.0286743
.0183254
1.565
0.127
-.0086534
.0660021
ccool
.0277012
.0379809
0.729
0.471
-.0496635
.1050658
coil
-2.195324
4.739168
-0.463
0.646
-11.84869
7.458046
cons
10.71355
3.735018
2.868
0.007
3.105564
18.32153
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool coil (dntek cheat ccool cnumre crefcap) if year <
> 1998
(2SLS)
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
37
F( 4,
32)
=
11.44
Model
24246.2102
4
6061.55255
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
18667.9194
32
583.372482
R-squared
=
0.5650
Adj R-squared
=
0.5106
Total
42914.1296
36
1192.05916
Root MSE
=
24.153
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
coil
7.590067
9.65071
0.786
0.437
-12.06779
27.24792
dntek
.3122672
.0478718
6.523
0.000
.2147556
.4097788
cheat
.0338279
.0199834
1.693
0.100
-.006877
.0745328
ccool
.038211
.0413862
0.923
0.363
-.04609
.122512
cons
10.65578
3.976345
2.680
0.012
2.55623
18.75533
predict pdco2
(1 missing value generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(1 missing value generated)
list year co2 pco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1465.158
8
Tech1.log
1/7/00
/ * Lagged foss only * /
drop pdco2 pco2
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool coill if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31) =
12.87
Model
26725.727
4
6681.43175
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
16089.9597
31
519.030958
R-squared
=
0.6242
Adj R-squared
=
0.5757
Total
42815.6867
35
1223.30533
Root MSE
= 22.782
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2774027
.0506027
5.482
0.000
.1741979
.3806075
cheat
.0284117
.0185431
1.532
0.136
-.0094072
.0662305
ccool
.0263869
.038206
0.691
0.495
-.0515348
.1043087
coill
-5.280549
5.419812
-0.974
0.337
-16.33433
5.77323
cons
10.71304
3.799519
2.820
0.008
2.963871
18.46221
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
#
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
list year co2 pco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1476.443
/ * Current and lagged foss * /
drop pdco2 pco2
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool coill coil if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 5,
30) =
10.02
Model
26775.1056
5
5355.02113
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
16040.5811
30
534.686036
R-squared
=
0.6254
Adj R-squared
=
0.5629
Total
42815.6867
35
1223.30533
Root MSE
= 23.123
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t| I
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2767223
.0514089
5.383
0.000
.1717313
.3817133
cheat
.0276717
.0189775
1.458
0.155
-.0110855
.066429
ccool
.0249385
.0390697
0.638
0.528
-.0548525
.1047296
coill
-5.010263
5.57238
-0.899
0.376
-16.39058
6.370055
9
Tech1.log
1/7/00
coil
-1.487905
4.896153
-0.304
0.763
-11.48718
8.511374
cons
10.72705
3.856669
2.781
0.009
2.850679
18.60342
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool coill coil (dntek cheat ccool coill cnumre crefcap
> ) if year < 1998
(2SLS)
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
+
F( 5,
30) =
8.67
Model
23923.6235
5
4784.7247
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
18892.0632
30
629.735441
R-squared
= 0.5588
+
Adj R-squared
=
0.4852
Total
I
42815.6867
35
1223.30533
Root MSE
=
25.095
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
+
coil
9.818926
10.42164
0.942
0.354
-11.46491
31.10276
dntek
.2818929
.055942
5.039
0.000
.1676442
.3961416
cheat
.0332944
.0210723
1.580
0.125
-.009741
.0763298
ccool
.0359451
.0432893
0.830
0.413
-.0524634
.1243536
coill
-7.064215
6.26288
-1.128
0.268
-19.85472
5.726293
cons
10.6206
4.1863
2.537
0.017
2.071039
19.17017
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
list year co2 pco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1466.255
/*******
> *** Residential Electricity
>
*******
/
/ * Current only * /
drop pdco2 pco2
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool cres if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
37
F( 4,
32) =
21.04
Model
31091.3447
4
7772.83618
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
11822.7849
32
369.462028
R-squared
=
0.7245
Adj R-squared
=
0.6901
Total
42914.1296
36
1192.05916
Root MSE
=
19.221
dco2 I
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
10
Tech1.log
1/7/00
dntek
.2260852
.0424549
5.325
0.000
.1396075
.3125629
cheat
.027363
.0153955
1.777
0.085
-.0039965
.0587226
ccool
.0175285
.0320766
0.546
0.589
-.0478093
.0828664
cres
-39.20205
10.9207
-3.590
0.001
-61.44679
-16.95732
cons
6.495383
3.374005
1.925
0.063
-.3772403
13.36801
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool cres (dntek cheat ccool cnetsum cnumele cprpcoal)
> if year < 1998
(2SLS)
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
37
F( 4,
32) =
18.27
Model
29905.5283
4
7476.38207
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
13008.6013
32
406.518791
R-squared
=
0.6969
Adj R-squared
=
0.6590
Total
42914.1296
36
1192.05916
Root MSE
=
20.162
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
cres
-58.7668
20.38959
-2.882
0.007
-100.299
-17.23457
dntek
.1880178
.05532
3.399
0.002
.0753346
.3007009
cheat
.0261315
.016184
1.615
0.116
-.0068341
.0590972
ccool
.0112749
.034076
0.331
0.743
-.0581356
.0806854
cons
4.396674
3.974864
1.106
0.277
-3.699859
12.49321
predict pdco2
(1 missing value generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(1 missing value generated)
list year co2 pco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1477.643
/ * Lagged only * /
drop pdco2 pco2
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool cresl if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31) =
21.35
Model
31411.6358
4
7852.90894
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
11404.0509
31
367.872611
R-squared
=
0.7336
Adj R-squared
=
0.6993
Total
42815.6867
35
1223.30533
Root MSE
=
19.18
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2810719
.0371414
7.568
0.000
.2053216
.3568222
11
Tech1.log
1/7/00
cheat
.0354186
.0156214
2.267
0.030
.0035587
.0672786
ccool
.0317545
.0319954
0.992
0.329
-.0335006
.0970096
cresl
-35.99991
9.594969
-3.752
0.001
-55.56898
-16.43084
cons
7.110895
3.336568
2.131
0.041
.3059192
13.91587
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
list year co2 pco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1475.724
/
* current and lagged prices * /
drop pdco2 pco2
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool cresl cres if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 5,
30) =
20.16
Model
32994.5459
5
6598.90918
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
9821.1408
30
327.37136
R-squared
=
0.7706
Adj R-squared
=
0.7324
Total
42815.6867
35
1223.30533
Root MSE
=
18.093
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2373973
.0402753
5.894
0.000
.1551442
.3196505
cheat
.0320169
.0148174
2.161
0.039
.0017558
.0622779
ccool
.0228764
.0304517
0.751
0.458
-.0393142
.0850669
cresl
-25.36774
10.26191
-2.472
0.019
-46.32535
-4.410121
cres
-25.63882
11.65978
-2.199
0.036
-49.45127
-1.826379
cons
5.448693
3.237042
1.683
0.103
-1.162228
12.05961
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool cresl cres (dntek cheat ccool cresl cnetsum cnumel
> e cprpcoal) if year < 1998
(2SLS)
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 5,
30) =
19.01
Model
32698.8207
5
6539.76415
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
10116.866
30
337.228866
R-squared
=
0.7637
Adj R-squared
=
0.7243
Total
42815.6867
35
1223.30533
Root MSE
=
18.364
dco2
I
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t| I
[95% Conf. Interval]
cres
I
-36.72072
26.67595
-1.377
0.179
-91.20027
17.75883
12
Tech1.log
1/7/00
dntek
.2185198
.0577016
3.787
0.001
.1006774
.3363623
cheat
.0305465
.0153697
1.987
0.056
-.0008426
.0619356
ccool
.019039
.0319962
0.595
0.556
-.0463061
.084384
cresl
-20.77218
14.37943
-1.445
0.159
-50.1389
8.594546
cons
4.730238
3.632671
1.302
0.203
-2.688665
12.14914
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
list year co2 pco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1477.432
/
> *** Commercial Electricity
>
*******
/
/ * Current only * /
drop pdco2 pco2
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool ccom if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
37
F( 4,
32) =
22.67
Model
31719.926
4
7929.9815
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
11194.2036
32
349.818863
R-squared
Il
0.7391
Adj R-squared
=
0.7065
Total
42914.1296
36
1192.05916
Root MSE
=
18.703
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2283654
.0404288
5.649
0.000
.1460147
.3107161
cheat
.0315505
.0149721
2.107
0.043
.0010534
.0620476
ccool
.0165476
.0312172
0.530
0.600
-.0470399
.080135
ccom
-42.00009
10.70038
-3.925
0.000
-63.79605
-20.20412
cons
6.46953
3.262096
1.983
0.056
-.1751425
13.1142
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool ccom (dntek cheat ccool cnetsum cnumele cprpcoal)
> if year < 1998
(2SLS)
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
37
F( 4,
32) =
20.12
Model
31298.6293
4
7824.65732
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
11615.5003
32
362.984385
R-squared
il
0.7293
Adj R-squared
=
0.6955
Total
42914.1296
36
1192.05916
Root MSE
= 19.052
13
Tech1.log
1/7/00
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
ccom
-53.74289
19.09151
-2.815
0.008
-92.63102
-14.85476
dntek
.2076769
.049584
4.188
0.000
.1066776
.3086762
cheat
.0320314
.0152647
2.098
0.044
.0009382
.0631246
ccool
. 0127699
.0321965
0.397
0.694
-.0528123
.0783521
cons
5.28657
3.678994
1.437
0.160
-2.207297
12.78044
predict pdco2
(1 missing value generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(1 missing value generated)
list year co2 pco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1479.097
/ * Lagged only * /
drop pdco2 pco2
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool ccoml if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31) =
17.02
Model
29418.7547
4
7354.68868
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
13396.932
31
432.159097
R-squared
=
0.6871
Adj R-squared
=
0.6467
Total
42815.6867
35
1223.30533
Root MSE
=
20.788
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.277966
.0407883
6.815
0.000
.1947778
.3611542
cheat
.0356403
.0169871
2.098
0.044
.000995
.0702857
ccool
.0300232
.0346759
0.866
0.393
-.0406987
.1007451
ccom1
-29.46616
10.85278
-2.715
0.011
-51.60056
-7.33177
cons
7.818191
3.622846
2.158
0.039
.4293482
15.20703
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
list year co2 pco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1471.796
14
Tech1.log
1/7/00
/
* current and lagged prices * /
drop pdco2 pco2
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool ccom1 ccom if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 5,
30) =
18.25
Model
32221.9527
5
6444.39053
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
10593.7341
30
353.124469
R-squared
=
0.7526
Adj R-squared
=
0.7113
Total
42815.6867
35
1223.30533
Root MSE
= 18.792
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2296071
.0406696
5.646
0.000
.1465486
.3126655
cheat
.03401
.0153663
2.213
0.035
.0026279
.0653921
ccool
.0188358
.0315956
0.596
0.556
-.045691
.0833626
ccom1
-14.53645
11.14994
-1.304
0.202
-37.30766
8.23476
ccom
-34.4339
12.22146
-2.817
0.008
-59.39346
-9.47434
cons
5.829398
3.350063
1.740
0.092
-1.012344
12.67114
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool ccom1 ccom (dntek cheat ccool ccom1 cnetsum cnumel
> e cprpcoal) if year < 1998
(2SLS)
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 5,
30) =
16.90
Model
32088.9239
5
6417.78478
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
10726.7628
30
357.558761
R-squared
=
0.7495
Adj R-squared
=
0.7077
Total
42815.6867
35
1223.30533
Root MSE
=
18.909
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>Itl
[95% Conf. Interval]
ccom
-41.93512
27.99561
-1.498
0.145
-99.10979
15.23955
dntek
.2190724
.0540585
4.053
0.000
.1086702
.3294745
cheat
.0336549
.0155082
2.170
0.038
.0019828
.0653269
ccool
.0163987
.0328265
0.500
0.621
-.0506421
.0834395
ccoml
-11.2841
15.64569
-0.721
0.476
-43.23685
20.66866
cons
5.396151
3.670671
1.470
0.152
-2.10036
12.89266
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
list year co2 pco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1477.243
15
Tech1.log
1/7/00
log close
16
Tech2.log
1/7/00
/
>
*** Detrend using series as a function of time and time squared
>
/
sort year
gen t = year - 1959
gen t2 = t^2
reg nonhitek t t2 if year > 1959 & year < 1998
Source I
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
38
+
F( 2,
35) = 3838.06
Model
I
78121131.4
2
39060565.7
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
I
356201.041
35
10177.1726
R-squared
= 0.9955
+
Adj R-squared
=
0.9952
Total
I
78477332.4
37
2121008.98
Root MSE
=
100.88
nonhitek
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
+
t
89.57803
6.124895
14.625
0.000
77.14383
102.0122
t2
1.045451
.1523153
6.864
0.000
.7362346
1.354668
cons
2119.505
51.79796
40.919
0.000
2014.35
2224.661
pred tntek
reg co2 t t2 if year > 1959 & year < 1998
Source |
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
38
+
F( 2,
35)
=
141.08
Model
1173540.35
2
586770.175
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
145569.29
35
4159.12256
R-squared
=
0.8896
+
Adj R-squared
=
0.8833
Total
1319109.64
37
35651.6119
Root MSE
=
64.491
.
co2
1
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
t
33.95098
3.915488
8.671
0.000
26.00211
41.89984
t2
-.4775276
.0973713
-4.904
0.000
-.6752018
- .2798534
cons
776.0454
33.11311
23.436
0.000
708.8222
843.2686
pred tco2
gen dntek = nonhitek - tntek
gen dco2 = co2 - tco2
1
Tech2.log
1/7/00
gen cheat = htdgyear [_n] - htdgyear[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen ccool = cldgyear [n] - cldgyear[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cfossl = ffppcomr [ n-1] - ffppcomr[_n-2]
(2 missing values generated)
gen celec = eleprrer [_n] - eleprrer[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen celecl = eleprrer [n-1] - eleprrer [_n-2]
(2 missing values generated)
gen cnumref = numrefin [n] - numrefin[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen crefcap = refincap - refincap[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cnetsum = netsumca [n] - netsumca [n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cextra = extralos [n] - extralos [_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cpdctu = cpvtyund[ - cpvtyund[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
gen cpdcts = cpvtysur [n] - cpvtysur[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
gen cnumele = numeleut [n] - numeleut[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen propcoal = hrscoal/hrstotal
gen cprpcoal = propcoal [_n] - propcoal [_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celec1 celec (dntek cheat ccool celec1 cnetsum cnu
> mele cprpcoal) if year > 1961 & year < 1998
(2SLS)
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 5,
30) =
2.40
Model
45401.9393
5
9080.38787
Prob > F
= 0.0605
Residual
97227.5073
30
3240.91691
R-squared
= 0.3183
Adj R-squared
=
0.2047
Total
142629.447
35
4075.12705
Root MSE
= 56.929
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
celec
I
26.42162
61.93791
0.427
0.673
-100.0725
152.9157
2
Tech2.log
1/7/00
dntek
.4161244
.1316183
3.162
0.004
.1473241
.6849248
cheat
.0308702
.0483983
0.638
0.528
-.0679724
.1297128
ccool
.0277248
.0961688
0.288
0.775
-.1686782
.2241278
celecl
25.65706
39.58241
0.648
0.522
-55.18101
106.4951
cons
I
5.249081
10.69211
0.491
0.627
-16.58713
27.08529
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen res = dco2 - pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
sort year
gen resl = res[_n-1]
(3 missing values generated)
reg res res1, noconstant
Source I
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 1,
35)
II
125.39
Model
86714.4116
1
86714.4116
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
24203.6713
35
691.533465
R-squared
=
0.7818
Adj R-squared
=
0.7756
Total
110918.083
36
3081.05786
Root MSE
II
26.297
res
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
resl
9443893
.0843358
11.198
0.000
7731785
1.1156
predict reshat
(3 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen co2hat = tco2 + pdco2 + reshat
(3 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 co2hat if year > 1959
year
co2
pco2
co2hat
1.
1960
787.9
.
.
2.
1961
793.7
.
.
3.
1962
826.6
849.9268
.
4.
1963
858.6
868.607
846.5774
5.
1964
895.2
906.7777
897.3272
6.
1965
934.5
966.4081
955.4742
7.
1966
985.7
1017.399
987.2653
3
Tech2.log
1/7/00
8.
1967
1011.5
1029.756
999.8203
9.
1968
1069.2
1086.026
1068.785
10.
1969
1115.6
1092.537
1076.646
11.
1970
1149
1068.521
1090.301
12.
1971
1162.5
1100.846
1176.85
13.
1972
1223.7
1166.109
1224.335
14.
1973
1277.9
1205.359
1259.747
15.
1974
1233.1
1206.354
1274.86
16.
1975
1197
1181.993
1207.252
17.
1976
1269.5
1203.174
1217.347
18.
1977
1307.4
1242.638
1305.275
19.
1978
1320.9
1301.18
1362.341
20.
1979
1337.7
1293.344
1311.967
21.
1980
1289.4
1287.324
1329.213
22.
1981
1256
1289.778
1291.739
23.
1982
1189.1
1210.842
1178.943
24.
1983
1182.5
1232.261
1211.728
25.
1984
1245.2
1294.459
1247.465
26.
1985
1244.6
1328.91
1282.39
27.
1986
1245.9
1340.387
1260.766
28.
1987
1286.6
1368.801
1279.569
29.
1988
1348.6
1415.759
1338.129
30.
1989
1360.8
1430.417
1366.993
31.
1990
1346.1
1395.804
1330.059
32.
1991
1330.8
1357.438
1310.499
33.
1992
1352.1
1369.327
1344.17
34.
1993
1379.8
1374.29
1358.021
35.
1994
1398.4
1380.811
1386.014
36.
1995
1411.7
1370.931
1387.542
37.
1996
1460.5
1371.36
1409.862
38.
1997
1480
1377.845
1462.027
39.
1998
1485.4
1366.091
1462.565
/
*
Get the standard errors correct * /
drop pco2 pdco2
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celecl cnetsum cnumele cprpcoal if year > 1961 & y
> ear < 1998
Source I
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
+
F( 7,
28) =
2.46
Model
54375.6598
7
7767.9514
Prob > F
=
0.0420
Residual
88253.7868
28
3151.92096
R-squared
II
0.3812
Adj R-squared
II
0.2265
Total
142629.447
35
4075.12705
Root MSE
=
56.142
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
+
dntek
.3373357
.1369748
2.463
0.020
.0567555
. 6179158
cheat
.0256565
.0548182
0.468
0.643
-.0866335
.1379466
ccool
.0037869
.1078407
0.035
0.972
-.2171149
.2246886
celecl
26.00033
34.67416
0.750
0.460
-45.02647
97.02713
cnetsum
1.977037
1.088829
1.816
0.080
-.2533281
4.207403
cnumele
.1434818
.3187264
0.450
0.656
-.5093996
.7963631
4
Tech2.log
1/7/00
cprpcoal
113.3318
717.8583
0.158
0.876
-1357.134
1583.798
cons
-35.69672
22.4991
-1.587
0.124
-81.78403
10.39059
predict jdco2
(2 missing values generated)
reg celec dntek cheat ccool celec1 cnetsum cnumele cprpcoal if year > 1961 &
> year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 7,
28) =
3.75
Model
2.00184997
7
.285978568
Prob > F
=
0.0055
Residual
2.13815167
28
.07636256
R-squared
=
0.4835
Adj R-squared
=
0.3544
Total
4.14000164
35
. 118285761
Root MSE
=
.27634
celec
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.0000804
.0006742
0.119
0.906
-.0013006
.0014615
cheat
.000283
.0002698
1.049
0.303
-.0002697
.0008357
ccool
.0005762
.0005308
1.085
0.287
-.0005112
.0016635
celec1
.2366476
.1706705
1.387
0.177
-.1129551
.5862504
cnetsum
.0130937
.0053594
2.443
0.021
.0021155
.0240718
cnumele
-.0046928
.0015688
-2.991
0.006
-.0079063
-.0014792
cprpcoal
4.05057
3.533388
1.146
0.261
-3.187247
11.28839
cons
.0279816
.1107434
0.253
0.802
-.1988659
.2548291
predict jcelec
(2 missing values generated)
newey jdco2 dntek cheat ccool celecl jcelec if year > 1961 & year < 1998, t (y
> ear) lag (1)
Regression with Newey-West standard errors
Number of obs
=
36
maximum lag : 1
F( 5,
30)
=
28.14
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Newey-West
jdco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.4161244
.0605748
6.870
0.000
.2924141
.5398348
cheat
.0308702
.0181335
1.702
0.099
-.0061633
.0679038
ccool
.0277248
.029021
0.955
0.347
-.0315439
.0869935
celecl
25.65706
15.10975
1.698
0.100
-5.201163
56.51528
jcelec
26.42162
25.88745
1.021
0.316
-26.4476
79.29084
cons
5.249081
5.649554
0.929
0.360
-6.288848
16.78701
log close
5
Tech3.log
1/7/00
/********
>
*** Detrend the series
>
*
/
sort year
gen dntek = nonhitek[ : - 1.03148*nonhitek[_n - 1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen tntek = 1.03148*nonhitek[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cheat = htdgyear[_n] - htdgyear[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen ccool = cldgyear[_n] - cldgyear [_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cfoss = ffppcomr [_n] - ffppcomr [_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen celec = eleprrer [_n] - eleprrer[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cnumref = numrefin[ n] - numrefin[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen crefcap = refincap[_n] - refincap[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cnetsum = netsumca [n] - netsumca[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cextra = extralos [n] - extralos[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cpdctu = cpvtyund[_n] - cpvtyund[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
gen cpdcts = cpvtysur [ n] - cpvtysur[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
gen cnumele = numeleut [_n] - numeleut [_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen propcoal = hrscoal/hrstotal
gen cprpcoal = propcoal[_n] - propcoal [_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen celecl = celec[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
gen cfoss1 = cfoss[_n-1]
1
Tech3.log
1/7/00
(2 missing values generated)
/ * 1 * /
gen tco2 = co2 [ n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [ n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celec1 if year < 1998
Source I
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31) =
20.24
Model
30102.967
4
7525.74175
Prob > F
= 0.0000
Residual
11527.5507
31
371.856475
R-squared
= 0.7231
Adj R-squared
=
0.6874
Total
I
41630.5177
35
1189.44336
Root MSE
=
19.284
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2757985
.0373419
7.386
0.000
.1996392
.3519579
cheat
.0347627
.0157057
2.213
0.034
.0027306
.0667947
ccool
.0306602
.0321682
0.953
0.348
-.0349473
.0962677
celecl
-34.9154
9.646783
-3.619
0.001
-54.59015
-15.24066
cons
16.49371
3.354586
4.917
0.000
9.651983
23.33543
-
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1473.885
-6.11469
1480
/ * 1.0025 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.0025*co2[ n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celecl if year < 1998
2
Tech3.log
1/7/00
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31) =
20.61
Model
30523.176
4
7630.79401
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
11476.7904
31
370.219047
R-squared
=
0.7267
Adj R-squared
=
0.6915
Total
41999.9665
35
1199.99904
Root MSE
= 19.241
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2775046
.0372596
7.448
0.000
.2015131
.3534961
cheat
.0349749
.0156711
2.232
0.033
.0030134
.0669363
ccool
.0310143
.0320973
0.966
0.341
.0344486
.0964772
celec1
-35.26631
9.625521
-3.664
0.001
-54.89769
-15.63493
cons
13.45798
3.347192
4.021
0.000
6.631338
20.28463
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1474.48
-9.219649
1483.7
/ * 1.005 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.005*co2 [ n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [ n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celec1 if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31) =
20.97
Model
30946.4647
4
7736.61618
Prob > F
il
0.0000
Residual
11436.3686
31
368.915115
R-squared
=
0.7302
Adj R-squared
=
0.6953
Total
42382.8333
35
1210.93809
Root MSE
=
19.207
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2792108
.037194
7.507
0.000
.2033532
.3550684
cheat
.0351872
.0156435
2.249
0.032
.0032821
. 0670923
ccool
.0313683
.0320407
0.979
0.335
-.0339792
.0967158
3
Tech3.log
1/7/00
celec1
-35.61719
9.608555
-3.707
0.001
-55.21397
-16.02042
cons
10.42226
3.341293
3.119
0.004
3.607646
17.23687
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1475.075
-12.32473
1487.4
/ * 1.0075 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.0075 [ n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [ n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celec1 if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31) =
21.32
Model
31372.7804
4
7843.1951
Prob > F
H
0.0000
Residual
11406.2653
31
367.944041
R-squared
II
0.7334
Adj R-squared
=
0.6990
Total
42779.0457
35
1222.25845
Root MSE
=
19.182
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2809169
.037145
7.563
0.000
.2051593
.3566746
cheat
.0353994
.0156229
2.266
0.031
.0035363
.0672625
ccool
.0317224
.0319985
0.991
0.329
-.0335391
.0969838
celecl
-35.96808
9.5959
-3.748
0.001
-55.53904
-16.39711
cons
7.386531
3.336892
2.214
0.034
.5808952
14.19217
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
4
Tech3.log
1/7/00
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1475.67
-15.42975
1491.1
/ * 1.01 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.01*co2 [_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [ n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celecl if year < 1998
Source I
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31) =
21.65
Model
31802.1815
4
7950.54537
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
11386.5162
31
367.306973
R-squared
=
0.7364
Adj R-squared
II
0.7023
Total
43188.6977
35
1233.96279
Root MSE
= 19.165
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2826233
.0371128
7.615
0.000
.2069312
.3583154
cheat
.0356116
.0156093
2.281
0.030
.0037762
.0674471
ccool
.0320764
.0319708
1.003
0.323
-.0331285
.0972814
celec1
-36.31896
9.58759
-3.788
0.001
-55.87297
-16.76494
cons
4.350814
3.334002
1.305
0.202
-2.448928
11.15056
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1476.265
-18.5348
1494.8
/ * 1.015 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.015*co2[ n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
5
Tech3.log
1/7/00
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celec1 if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31) =
22.25
Model
32670.0036
4
8167.5009
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
11378.0128
31
367.032672
R-squared
=
0.7417
Adj R-squared
=
0.7084
Total
44048.0164
35
1258.51475
Root MSE
= 19.158
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval ]
dntek
.2860354
.0370989
7.710
0.000
.2103716
.3616992
cheat
.0360361
.0156035
2.309
0.028
.0042125
.0678596
ccool
.0327845
.0319589
1.026
0.313
-.0323961
.0979651
celecl
-37.02067
9.584009
-3.863
0.001
-56.56738
-17.47395
cons
-1.720619
3.332757
-0.516
0.609
-8.517821
5.076584
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1477.455
-24.7448
1502.2
/ * 1.02 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.02*co2 [ n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [ n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celecl if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31) =
22.79
Model
33550.0692
4
8387.51731
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
11410.8466
31
368.091827
R-squared
= 0.7462
Adj R-squared
=
0.7135
Total
44960.9159
35
1284.5976
Root MSE
= 19.186
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2894477
.0371524
7.791
0.000
.2136748
.3652206
cheat
.0364605
.015626
2.333
0.026
.004591
.0683299
6
Tech3.log
1/7/00
ccool
.0334926
.032005
1.046
0.303
-.031782
.0987671
celecl
-37.72243
9.597827
-3.930
0.000
-57.29733
-18.14754
cons
-7.792066
3.337562
-2.335
0.026
-14.59907
- -.9850633
-
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1478.645
-30.95484
1509.6
/ * 1.025 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.025*co2 [_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [ n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celecl if year < 1998
Source I
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31) =
23.24
Model
34442.3379
4
8610.58447
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
11485.0183
31
370.484463
R-squared
=
0.7499
Adj R-squared
=
0.7177
Total
45927.3562
35
1312.21018
Root MSE
=
19.248
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2928599
.037273
7.857
0.000
.2168411
.3688787
cheat
.036885
.0156767
2.353
0.025
.0049121
.0688579
ccool
.0342007
.0321088
1.065
0.295
-.0312856
.0996871
celecl
-38.42425
9.62897
-3.990
0.000
-58.06266
-18.78584
cons
-13.86353
3.348392
-4.140
0.000
-20.69262
-7.034435
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
7
Tech3.log
1/7/00
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1479.835
-37.16489
1517
/ * 1.03 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.03*co2[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [ n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celecl if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
+
F( 4,
31) =
23.61
Model
35346.8238
4
8836.70594
Prob > F
II
0.0000
Residual
11600.5284
31
374.210595
R-squared
=
0.7529
+
Adj R-squared
=
0.7210
Total
46947.3522
35
1341.35292
Root MSE
= 19.345
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2962724
.03746
7.909
0.000
.2198723
.3726725
cheat
.0373094
.0157554
2.368
0.024
.0051762
.0694427
ccool
.0349089
.0322699
1.082
0.288
-.0309059
.1007237
celecl
-39.12601
9.677271
-4.043
0.000
-58.86293
-19.38909
cons
-19.93496
3.365188
-5.924
0.000
-26.79831
-13.07162
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1481.025
-43.3749
1524.4
/ * 1.035 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.035*co2 [n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [ n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
8
Tech3.log
1/7/00
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celec1 if year < 1998
Source I
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31) =
23.90
Model
36263.4323
4
9065.85807
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
11757.3869
31
379.270547
R-squared
= 0.7552
Adj R-squared
=
0.7236
Total
48020.8192
35
1372.02341
Root MSE
= 19.475
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.2996845
.0377124
7.947
0.000
.2227697
.3765994
cheat
.0377339
.0158615
2.379
0.024
.0053842
.0700837
ccool
.0356171
.0324873
1.096
0.281
-.0306412
.1018754
celecl
-39.82774
9.742477
-4.088
0.000
-59.69766
-19.95783
cons
-26.00641
3.387863
-7.676
0.000
-32.916
-19.09682
-
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1482.215
-49.58496
1531.8
/* 1.04 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.04*co2[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celecl if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31) =
24.11
Model
37192.2798
4
9298.06994
Prob > F
= 0.0000
Residual
11955.5803
31
385.663879
R-squared
= 0.7567
Adj R-squared
=
0.7254
Total
49147.86
35
1404.22457
Root MSE
= 19.638
dco2 I
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.3030968
.0380289
7.970
0.000
.2255364
.3806573
9
Tech3.log
1/7/00
cheat
.0381584
.0159946
2.386
0.023
.0055371
.0707797
ccool
.0363252
.03276
1.109
0.276
-
-.0304892
.1031396
celecl
-40.52952
9.824248
-4.125
0.000
-60.56621
-20.49284
cons
-32.07787
3.416298
-9.390
0.000
-39.04545
-25.11028
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1483.405
-55.79503
1539.2
/ * 1.045 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.045*co2 [ n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [ n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celecl if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31)
=
24.23
Model
38133.2977
4
9533.32444
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
12195.119
31
393.390935
R-squared
=
0.7577
Adj R-squared
=
0.7264
Total
50328.4167
35
1437.95476
Root MSE
=
19.834
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.3065091
.038408
7.980
0.000
.2281755
.3848427
cheat
.0385828
.0161541
2.388
0.023
.0056364
.0715293
ccool
.0370333
.0330865
1.119
0.272
-.0304471
.1045138
celecl
-41.23128
9.922178
-4.155
0.000
-61.46769
-20.99486
cons
-38.1493
3.450352
-11.057
0.000
-45.18634
-31.11226
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
sort year
10
Tech3.log
1/7/00
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1484.595
-62.00504
1546.6
/ * 1.05 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.05*co2[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celec1 if year < 1998
Source 1
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
+
F( 4,
31) =
24.28
Model
39086.5589
4
9771.63973
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
12475.989
31
402.451258
R-squared
=
0.7580
Adj R-squared
II
0.7268
Total
51562.5479
35
1473.21565
Root MSE
=
20.061
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.3099216
.0388477
7.978
0.000
.2306911
.3891521
cheat
.0390073
.0163391
2.387
0.023
.0056836
.0723311
ccool
.0377415
.0334654
1.128
0.268
-.0305116
.1059946
celecl
-41.93306
10.03579
-4.178
0.000
-62.40118
-21.46493
cons
-44.22075
3.489859
-12.671
0.000
-51.33837
-37.10314
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1485.785
-68.2151
1554
/* 1.055 - * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.055*co2 [ n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [ n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
11
Tech3.log
1/7/00
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celecl if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31) =
24.25
Model
40051.9539
4
10012.9885
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
12798.1994
31
412.845142
R-squared
=
0.7578
Adj R-squared
=
0.7266
Total
52850.1533
35
1510.00438
Root MSE
=
20.319
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.3133338
.0393462
7.964
0.000
.2330867
.3935809
cheat
.0394318
.0165487
2.383
0.023
.0056805
.0731831
ccool
.0384495
.0338948
1.134
0.265
-
-.0306794
.1075784
celecl
-42.63482
10.16456
-4.194
0.000
-63.36557
-21.90407
cons
-50.29219
3.534637
-14.228
0.000
-57.50113
-43.08325
-
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1486.975
-74.42515
1561.4
/ * 1.06 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.06*co2 [ n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [ n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celec1 if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31) =
24.16
Model
41029.533
4
10257.3833
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
13161.76
31
424.572905
R-squared
=
0.7571
Adj R-squared
=
0.7258
Total
54191.2931
35
1548.32266
Root MSE
=
20.605
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
+
12
Tech3.log
1/7/00
dntek
.316746
.0399011
7.938
0.000
.2353671
.3981249
cheat
.0398562
.0167821
2.375
0.024
.0056289
.0740835
ccool
.0391577
.0343728
1.139
0.263
-.0309462
.1092615
celec1
-43.33655
10.30792
-4.204
0.000
-64.35969
-22.31341
cons
-56.36363
3.58449
-15.724
0.000
-63.67425
-49.05302
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1488.165
-80.63515
1568.8
/ * 1.065 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.065*co2 [ n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celec1 if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31) =
24.00
Model
42019.3269
4
10504.8317
Prob > F
II
0.0000
Residual
13566.641
31
437.633579
R-squared
=
0.7559
Adj R-squared
=
0.7244
Total
55585.9679
35
1588.17051
Root MSE
=
20.92
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.3201582
.0405102
7.903
0.000
.2375371
.4027793
cheat
.0402808
.0170383
2.364
0.025
.005531
.0750305
ccool
.0398658
.0348975
1.142
0.262
-.0313081
.1110398
celecl
-44.03834
10.46526
-4.208
0.000
-65.38239
-22.6943
cons
-62.43509
3.639206
-17.156
0.000
-69.8573
-55.01289
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
sort year
13
Tech3.log
1/7/00
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1489.355
-86.84523
1576.2
/ * 1.07 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.07*co2[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [ n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celec1 if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
+
F( 4,
31) =
23.79
Model
43021.3606
4
10755.3401
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
14012.8785
31
452.028338
R-squared
= 0.7543
+
Adj R-squared
=
0.7226
Total
57034.239
35
1629.54969
Root MSE
=
21.261
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.3235707
.0411711
7.859
0.000
.2396018
.4075397
cheat
.0407052
.0173162
2.351
0.025
.0053885
.0760218
ccool
.0405739
.0354668
1.144
0.261
-.0317611
.112909
celecl
-44.74012
10.63598
-4.206
0.000
-66.43235
-23.04788
cons
-68.50653
3.698572
-18.522
0.000
-76.04982
-60.96325
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1490.545
-93.05525
1583.6
/ * 1.075 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.075*co2[ n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [_n] - tco2
14
Tech3.log
1/7/00
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celecl if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31) =
23.54
Model
44035.5037
4
11008.8759
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
14500.4754
31
467.75727
R-squared
= 0.7523
+
Adj R-squared
=
0.7203
Total
58535.9791
35
1672.45655
Root MSE
= 21.628
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.3269829
.0418812
7.807
0.000
.2415655
. 4124002
cheat
.0411296
.0176149
2.335
0.026
.0052038
.0770555
ccool
.041282
.0360786
1.144
0.261
-.0323007
.1148648
celecl
-45.44186
10.81945
-4.200
0.000
-67.50827
-23.37545
cons
-74.57798
3.76237
-19.822
0.000
-82.25139
-66.90458
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1491.735
-99.26529
1591
/ * 1.08 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.08*co2 [ n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celecl if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31) =
23.24
Model
45061.8723
4
11265.4681
Prob > F
= 0.0000
Residual
15029.3888
31
484.818994
R-squared
=
0.7499
Adj R-squared
=
0.7176
Total
60091.2611
35
1716.89317
Root MSE
=
22.019
dco2 I
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
15
Tech3.log
1/7/00
dntek
.3303951
.0426382
7.749
0.000
.2434339
.4173563
cheat
.0415541
.0179333
2.317
0.027
.0049789
.0781293
ccool
.0419901
.0367307
1.143
0.262
-.0329226
.1169028
celecl
-46.14363
11.015
-4.189
0.000
-68.60887
-23.67838
cons
-80.64942
3.830373
-21.055
0.000
-88.46152
-72.83732
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1492.925
-105.4753
1598.4
/ * 1.085 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.085*co2 [ n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celecl if year < 1998
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31) =
22.90
Model
46100.4464
4
11525.1116
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
15599.6443
31
503.214332
R-squared
=
0.7472
Adj R-squared
=
0.7145
Total
61700.0907
35
1762.85973
Root MSE
=
22.432
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.3338074
.0434396
7.684
0.000
.2452118
.4224031
cheat
.0419786
.0182703
2.298
0.028
.0047159
.0792412
ccool
.0426983
.037421
1.141
0.263
-.0336224
.119019
celecl
-46.8454
11.22203
-4.174
0.000
-69.73288
-23.95792
cons
-86.72086
3.902364
-22.223
0.000
-94.67978
-78.76194
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
16
Tech3.log
1/7/00
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1494.115
-111.6853
1605.8
/ * 1.09 * /
drop tco2 dco2 pdco2 pco2
gen tco2 = 1.09*co2[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2 [ n] - tco2
(1 missing value generated)
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool celecl if year < 1998
Source |
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 4,
31)
=
22.54
Model
47151.2263
4
11787.8066
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
16211.2396
31
522.943213
R-squared
=
0.7442
Adj R-squared
=
0.7111
Total
63362.4659
35
1810.35617
Root MSE
=
22.868
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
dntek
.3372197
.0442829
7.615
0.000
.2469041
4275354
cheat
.0424031
.0186251
2.277
0.030
.004417
.0803891
ccool
.0434064
.0381475
1.138
0.264
-.034396
.1212088
celec1
-47.5472
11.4399
-4.156
0.000
-70.87902
-24.21537
cons
-92.79232
3.978126
-23.326
0.000
-100.9058
-84.67888
-
.
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
sort year
list year co2 pco2 pdco2 tco2 if year == 1998
year
co2
pco2
pdco2
tco2
39.
1998
1485.4
1495.304
-117.8954
1613.2
log close
17
Tech4.log
1/7/00
/
> *** Detrend the series
>
/
sort year
gen dntek = nonhitek [ n] - 1.03148*nonhitek[_n - 1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen dco2 = co2[_n] - 1.007727*co2[ r - 1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen tntek = 1.03148*nonhitek[_n-1]
( (1 missing value generated)
gen tco2 = 1.007727*co2[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cheat = htdgyear[_n] - htdgyear[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen ccool = cldgyear - cldgyear[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cfoss = ffppcomr [n] - ffpcomr[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cres = eleprrer - eleprrer [_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen ccom = eleprcor[ - eleprcor[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen ccoal = ffppcoar[_n] - ffppcoar[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
.
gen cgas = ffppngr[_n] - ffppngr[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
.
gen coil = ffppoilr - ffppoilr[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cnumref = numrefin[ n] - numrefin[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen crefcap = refincap[_n] - refincap[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cnetsum = netsumca [ n] - netsumca[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cextra = extralos [_n] - extralos[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
1
Tech4.log
1/7/00
gen cpdctu = cpvtyund [_n] - cpvtyund[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
gen cpdcts = cpvtysur[_n] - cpvtysur[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
gen cnumele = numeleut [_n] - numeleut[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen propcoal = hrscoal/hrstotal
gen cprpcoal = propcoal [n] - propcoal[ [_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen cresl = cres [_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
gen ccoml = ccom [_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
gen cfoss1 = cfoss [_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
gen ccoall = ccoal [_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
gen cgas1 = cgas [_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
gen coill = coil [ n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
/
>
*** Residential Electricity
>
*
/
.
reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool cresl cres (dntek cheat ccool cresl cnetsum cnumel
> e cprpcoal) if year < 1998 & year > 1960
(2SLS)
Source I
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
36
F( 5,
30) =
19.01
Model
32698.8207
5
6539.76415
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
10116.866
30
337.228866
R-squared
= 0.7637
Adj R-squared
=
0.7243
Total
42815.6867
35
1223.30533
Root MSE
= 18.364
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
cres
-36.72072
26.67595
-1.377
0.179
-91.20027
17.75883
dntek
.2185198
.0577016
3.787
0.001
.1006774
.3363623
cheat
.0305465
.0153697
1.987
0.056
-.0008426
.0619356
ccool
.019039
.0319962
0.595
0.556
-.0463061
.084384
cresl
-20.77218
14.37943
-1.445
0.159
-50.1389
8.594546
2
Tech4.log
1/7/00
cons I
4.730238
3.632671
1.302
0.203
-2.688665
12.14914
-
predict pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
test cres cresl
( 1)
cres = 0.0
( 2)
cresl = 0.0
F( 2,
30) =
8.63
Prob > F =
0.0011
gen res = abs (co2 - pco2)
(2 missing values generated)
gen pres = abs (co2 - pco2) / co2
(2 missing values generated)
sort year
egen sres = sum (res) if year > 1961 & year < 1998
(3 missing values generated)
egen spres = sum (pres) if year > 1961 & year < 1998
(3 missing values generated)
replace sres = sres/36
(36 real changes made)
replace spres = spres/36
(36 real changes made)
list sres spres if year == 1997
sres
spres
14.
12.24878
.0100937
sort year
list year co2 pco2
year
co2
pco2
1.
1960
787.9
2.
1961
793.7
3.
1962
826.6
832.7742
4.
1963
858.6
867.9325
5.
1964
895.2
894.7097
3
Tech4.log
1/7/00
6.
1965
934.5
951.6642
7.
1966
985.7
1009.519
8.
1967
1011.5
1010.425
9.
1968
1069.2
1056.519
10.
1969
1115.6
1118.855
11.
1970
1149
1136.014
12.
1971
1162.5
1166.568
13.
1972
1223.7
1195.436
14.
1973
1277.9
1250.613
15.
1974
1233.1
1230.401
16.
1975
1197
1194.785
17.
1976
1269.5
1228.558
18.
1977
1307.4
1285.546
19.
1978
1320.9
1355.125
20.
1979
1337.7
1337.681
21.
1980
1289.4
1299.796
22.
1981
1256
1259.905
23.
1982
1189.1
1198.699
24.
1983
1182.5
1206.558
25.
1984
1245.2
1243.121
26.
1985
1244.6
1280.168
27.
1986
1245.9
1261.914
28.
1987
1286.6
1280.426
29.
1988
1348.6
1336.241
30.
1989
1360.8
1378.077
31.
1990
1346.1
1349.238
32.
1991
1330.8
1330.994
33.
1992
1352.1
1349.149
34.
1993
1379.8
1369.035
35.
1994
1398.4
1400.692
36.
1995
1411.7
1407.763
37.
1996
1460.5
1430.094
38.
1997
1480
1478.708
39.
1998
1485.4
1477.432
/
> *** Summary Stats
>
*******
/
su dco2 dntek cheat ccool cfoss cres ccom ccoal cgas coil cnumref crefcap cne
> tsum cextra cpdctu cpdcts cnumele cprpcoal if year < 1998
Variable
Obs
Mean
Std. Dev.
Min
Max
dco2
37
9.498726
34.52621
-76.60513
63.25078
dntek
37
-3.355278
87.84338
-231.6407
183.346
cheat
37
-4.918919
216.0386
-710
353
ccool
37
-1.351351
104.9924
-291
256
cfoss
37
.0108108
. 3211125
-1.15
.8200002
cres
37
-.1
.3391166
-.7000008
1
ccom
37
-.0945946
.3299377
-.6000004
1
ccoal
37
-.0018919
.1437946
-.13
.74
cgas
37
.0362162
.2346079
-.71
.49
coil
37
.0143243
.816056
-2.61
2.22
cnumref
37
-3.918919
10.48644
-43
14
crefcap
37
.1516216
4648567
-1.029999
1.16
4
Tech4.log
1/7/00
cnetsum
37
14.72432
9.749998
2
43.79999
cextra
37
.0113514
.0297361
-.04
.05
cpdctu
37
-.472973
3.286539
-19.91
.26
cpdcts
37
- -.3635135
3.328039
-19.95
.8099995
cnumele
37
63.97297
42.49607
-54
137
cprpcoal
37
.0010541
.0144497
-
-.0297088
.0360969
sort year
gen ggdp = (gdp[_n] - gdp[_n-1])/gdp[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
gen gco2 = (co2[_n] - co2[_n-1])/co2[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
reg gco2 ggdp, noconstant
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
38
F( 1,
37) =
61.42
Model
.02635254
1
.02635254
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
.015876083
37
.000429083
R-squared
= 0.6240
Adj R-squared
=
0.6139
Total
I
.042228623
38
.00111128
Root MSE
= .02071
gco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
ggdp
I
.6500644
.0829499
7.837
0.000
.4819919
.8181369
log close
5
Seas Factr %chng
NSA MonthNSA %
SA Avg
SA %
Jan
97.7
1.29
1.32
Feb
96.4
-1.3
1.38
7.0
1.43
8.4
Mar
96.8
0.4
1.52
10.1
1.57
9.7
Apr
98.7
2.0
1.46
-3.9
1.48
-5.8
May
102.1
3.4
1.47
0.7
1.44
-2.7
Last Week May
1.53
4.8
1.50
1.3
Seas Factr %chng
NSA MonthNSA %
SA Avg
SA %
Jan
97.7
1.29
1.320368
Feb
96.4
-1.3
1.38
6.976744
1.431535
8.419377
Mar
96.8
0.4
1.52
10.14493
1.570248
9.689783
Apr
98.7
2.0
1.46
-3.947368
1.47923
-5.796406
May
102.1
3.4
1.47
0.684932
1.439765
-2.667946
Last Week May
1.53
4.794521
1.498531
1.304791
RFG Premiums
25
PADD 2
20
PADD 5
15
PADD 1
Cents per gallon
1Anticipated Premium
5
0
1/3/2000
1/10/2000
1/17/2000
1/24/2000
1/31/2000
2/7/2000
2/14/2000
2/21/2000
2/28/2000
3/6/2000 3/13/2000 3/20/2000
3/27/2000
4/3/2000
4/10/2000
4/17/2000
4/24/2000
5/1/2000
5/8/2000
5/15/2000
5/22/2000
-5
1441
1998 co2 = 1485.4
1999 CO2 Est
+ 1999 CO2 = 1496,9
Acves = - .3 = - - (-35) = 10.5
ACVCS1 = -. 1 . (-21.8) = 2.18
in
12.68
Theat = 226 . (.0285) = 6.44
A cool = - 133 . (.0171) 52.27
D Ntck =- 132. . (.214) = - 28.25
---
- -11.4
5.3
=6.1
[email protected] @
Tech2v4 Fri May 26 15:07:49 2000 Page 1
tm
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
Statistics/Data Analysis
User: Leigh L. Linden
Project: CO2 Concavity
1. /********
> *** Detrend the series
> ********/
2. sort year
3. gen dntek = nonhitek [_n] - 1.03148*nonhitek[_n - 1]
(1 missing value generated)
4. gen dco2 = co2[_n] - 1.007727*co2[_n - 1]
(2 missing values generated)
5. gen tntek = 1.03148*nonhitek[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
6. gen tco2 = 1.007727*co2[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
7. gen cheat = htdgyear[_n] - htdgyear[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
8. gen ccool = cldgyear| - cldgyear[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
9. gen cfoss = ffppcomr [_n] - ffppcomr[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
10. gen cres = eleprrer[_n] - eleprrer[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
11. gen ccom = eleprcor[_n] - eleprcor[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
12. gen ccoal = ffppcoar[_n] - ffppcoar[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
13. gen cgas = ffppngr[_n] - ffppngr[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
14. gen coil = ffppoilr[_n] - ffppoilr[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
15. gen cnumref = numrefin[ n] - numrefin[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
16. gen crefcap = refincap [_n] - refincap[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
Tech2v4 Fri May 26 15:07:49 2000 Page 2
17. gen cnetsum = netsumca [n] - netsumca[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
18. gen cextra = extralos[ n] - extralos[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
19. gen cpdctu = cpvtyund[_n] - cpvtyund[_n-1]
(3 missing values generated)
20. gen cpdcts = cpvtysur[_n] - cpvtysur[_n-1]
(3 missing values generated)
21. gen cnumele = numeleut[_n] - numeleut[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
22. gen propcoal = hrscoal/hrstotal
(1 missing value generated)
23. gen cprpcoal = propcoal[_n] - propcoal[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
24. gen cresl = cres[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
25. gen ccom1 = ccom[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
26. gen cfoss1 = cfoss[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
27. gen ccoall = ccoal[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
28. gen cgas1 = cgas [_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
29. gen coill = coil[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
30. /*******
> *** Residential Electricity
> *******/
31. reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool cresl cres (dntek cheat ccool cresl cnetsum cnumel
> e cprpcoal) if year < 1999 & year > 1960
Instrumental variables (2SLS) regression
Source I
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
37
F( 5,
31) =
20.65
Model
I
33308.5971
5
6661.71941
Prob > F
= 0.0000
Residual
I
9750.18308
31
314.522035
R-squared
= 0.7736 .
Tech2v4
Fri May 26 15:07:49 2000
Page 3
Adj R-squared =
0.7370
Total
43058.7801
36
1196.07723
Root MSE
=
17.735
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
cres
-35.02527
30.24463
-1.158
0.256
-96.70961
26.65906
cheat
.0285269
.0141858
2.011
0.053
-.0004053
.0574591
ccool
.017093
.0301959
0.566
0.575
-.0444919
.0786779
cresl
-21.78913
15.42529
-1.413
0.168
-53.24922
9.670965
dntek
.2136202
.0592512
3.605
0.001
.0927765
.3344639
cons
5.340061
3.694117
1.446
0.158
-2.19414
12.87426
32. predict ncpdco2
(option xb assumed; fitted values)
(2 missing values generated)
33. gen pco2 = tco2 + ncpdco2
(2 missing values generated)
34. gen res = abs (co2 - pco2)
(3 missing values generated)
35. gen pres = abs (co2 - pco2) /co2
(3 missing values generated)
36. sort year
37. egen sres = sum (res) if year > 1961 & year < 1998
(4 missing values generated)
38. egen spres = sum (pres) if year > 1961 & year < 1998
(4 missing values generated)
39. replace sres = sres/36
(36 real changes made)
40. replace spres = spres/36
(36 real changes made)
41. list sres spres if year == 1997
sres
spres
3.
12.39082
.01018
.
42. sort year
43. list year co2 pco2
year
co2
pco2
Tech2v4 Fri May 26 15:07:49 2000 Page 4
1.
1960
787.9
2.
1961
793.7
3.
1962
826.6
832.6566
4.
1963
858.6
867.6783
5.
1964
895.2
895.8261
6.
1965
934.5
951.2713
7.
1966
985.7
1009.09
8.
1967
1011.5
1011.834
9.
1968
1069.2
1056.323
10.
1969
1115.6
1117.83
11.
1970
1149
1137.076
12.
1971
1162.5
1169.457
13.
1972
1223.7
1196.567
14.
1973
1277.9
1252.147
15.
1974
1233.1
1230.643
16.
1975
1197
1194.24
17.
1976
1269.5
1231.07
18.
1977
1307.4
1287.222
19.
1978
1320.9
1352.597
20.
1979
1337.7
1336.859
21.
1980
1289.4
1299.277
22.
1981
1256
1260.767
23.
1982
1189.1
1198.896
24.
1983
1182.5
1207.682
25.
1984
1245.2
1242.691
26.
1985
1244.6
1280.264
27.
1986
1245.9
1262.526
28.
1987
1286.6
1279.201
29.
1988
1348.6
1335.492
30.
1989
1360.8
1379.206
31.
1990
1346.1
1351.47
32.
1991
1330.8
1328.634
33.
1992
1352.1
1346.341
34.
1993
1379.8
1372.792
35.
1994
1398.4
1401.747
36.
1995
1411.7
1407.625
37.
1996
1460.5
1429.432
38.
1997
1480
1475.549
39.
1998
1485.4
1479.12
40.
1999
1490.802
44. drop pco2 res pres sres spres
45. reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool cres1 cres (dntek cheat ccool cresl cnetsum cnumel
> e cprpcoal) if year < 1999 & year > 1960, noconstant
Instrumental variables (2SLS) regression
Source I
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
37
F( 5,
32) =
Model
29039.2378
5
5807.84757
Prob > F
=
Residual
17249.5958
32
539.04987
R-squared
=
Adj R-squared =
Tech2v4 Fri May 26 15:07:49 2000 Page 5
Total
46288.8337
37
1251.04956
Root MSE
= 23.217
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
cres
-81.1811
34.27072
-2.369
0.024
-150.9883
-11.37392
cheat
.0228864
.0183833
1.245
0.222
-.014559
.0603319
ccool
.0029232
.0391893
0.075
0.941
-.0769027
.0827491
cresl
-4.371342
19.70403
-0.222
0.826
-44.50714
35.76445
dntek
.1359288
.0683671
1.988
0.055
-.0033304
.2751879
46. predict pdco2
(option xb assumed; fitted values)
(2 missing values generated)
47. gen pco2 = tco2 + pdco2
(2 missing values generated)
48. test cres cres1
( 1)
cres = 0.0
( 2)
cres1 = 0.0
F( 2,
32) =
10.30
Prob > F =
0.0004
49. gen res = abs (co2 - pco2)
(3 missing values generated)
50. gen pres = abs (co2 - pco2) /co2
(3 missing values generated)
51. sort year
52. egen sres = sum (res) if year > 1961 & year < 1998
(4 missing values generated)
53. egen spres = sum (pres) if year > 1961 & year < 1998
(4 missing values generated)
54. replace sres = sres/36
(36 real changes made)
55. replace spres = spres/36
(36 real changes made)
56. list sres spres if year == 1997
sres
spres
23. 17.03412
.0141688
Tech2v4
Fri May 26 15:07:49 2000
Page 6
57. sort year
58. list year co2 pco2
year
co2
pco2
1.
1960
787.9
2.
1961
793.7
3.
1962
826.6
828.7922
4.
1963
858.6
879.2025
5.
1964
895.2
887.4487
6.
1965
934.5
963.8498
7.
1966
985.7
1017.475
8.
1967
1011.5
1006.969
9.
1968
1069.2
1060.961
10.
1969
1115.6
1137.046
11.
1970
1149
1145.16
12.
1971
1162.5
1157.799
13.
1972
1223.7
1185.255
14.
1973
1277.9
1245.12
15.
1974
1233.1
1189.606
16.
1975
1197
1206.03
17.
1976
1269.5
1222.884
18.
1977
1307.4
1260.669
19.
1978
1320.9
1353.203
20.
1979
1337.7
1335.421
21.
1980
1289.4
1269.496
22.
1981
1256
1254.397
23.
1982
1189.1
1201.122
24.
1983
1182.5
1203.716
25.
1984
1245.2
1238.225
26.
1985
1244.6
1271.419
27.
1986
1245.9
1264.855
28.
1987
1286.6
1282.988
29.
1988
1348.6
1328.258
30.
1989
1360.8
1379.703
31.
1990
1346.1
1360.981
32.
1991
1330.8
1339.668
33.
1992
1352.1
1343.537
34.
1993
1379.8
1371.368
35.
1994
1398.4
1398.142
36.
1995
1411.7
1415.278
37.
1996
1460.5
1429.303
38.
1997
1480
1480.993
39.
1998
1485.4
1479.374
40.
1999
1508.46
59. /****
> *** Summary Stats
>
/
60. su dco2 dntek cheat ccool cfoss cres ccom ccoal cgas coil cnumref crefcap cne
> tsum cextra cpdctu cpdcts cnumele cprpcoal if year < 1998
Tech2v4 Fri May 26 15:07:49 2000 Page 7
Variable
Obs
Mean
Std. Dev.
Min
Max
dco2
37
9.498726
34.52621
-76.60513
63.25078
dntek
37
-5.090339
91.44317
-239.8102
183.579
cheat
37
-4.918919
216.0386
-710
353
ccool
37
-1.351351
104.9924
-291
256
cfoss
37
.0108108
.3211125
-1.15
.8200002
cres
37
-.1
.3391166
-.7000008
1
ccom
37
-.0945946
.3299377
-.6000004
1
ccoal
37
-.0018919
.1437946
-.13
.74
cgas
37
.0362162
.2346079
-.71
.49
coil
37
.0143243
.816056
-2.61
2.22
cnumref
37
-3.918919
10.48644
-43
14
crefcap
37
.1516216
.4648567
-1.029999
1.16
cnetsum
37
14.72432
9.749998
2
43.79999
cextra
37
.0113514
.0297361
-.04
.05
cpdctu
37
-.472973
3.286539
-19.91
.26
cpdcts
37
-.3635135
3.328039
-19.95
.8099995
cnumele
37
63.97297
42.49607
-54
137
cprpcoal
37
.0010541
.0144497
-.0297088
.0360969
61. sort year
62. gen ggdp = (gdp[_n] - gdp[_n-1])/gdp[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
63. gen gco2 = (co2[_n] - co2[_n-1])/co2[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
64. reg gco2 ggdp, noconstant
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
38
F( 1,
37) =
65.27
Model
. 026951415
1
. 026951415
Prob > F
=
0.0000
Residual
. 015277208
37
.000412898
R-squared
=
0.6382
Adj R-squared
=
0.6284
Total
.042228623
38
. 00111128
Root MSE
=
.02032
gco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
ggdp
.6561952
.0812201
8.079
0.000
. 4916277
.8207627
65. log close
Stata Corporation
702 University Drive East
College Station, Texas 77840
409-696-4600, fax 409-696-4601
http://www.ela.doe.gov/pub/energy.overview/monthly.energy/mert9-9
Table 9.9
Retail Prices of Electricity Sold by Electric Utilities
(Cents per Kilowatthour)
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Other
Total
1973 Average
2.5
2.4
1.3
2.1
2.0
1974 Average
3.1
3.0
1.7
2.8
2.5
1975 Average
3.5
3.5
2.1
3.1
2.9
1976 Average
3.7
3.7
2.2
3.3
3.1
1977 Average
4.1
4.1
2.5
3.5
3.4
1978 Average
4.3
4.4
2.8
3.6
3.7
1979 Average
4.6
4.7
3.1
4.0
4.0
1980 Average
5.4
5.5
3.7
4.8
4.7
1981 Average
6.2
6.3
4.3
5.3
5.5
1982 Average
6.9
6.9
5.0
5.9
6.1
1983 Average
7.2
7.0
5.0
6.4
6.3
1984 Average
7.15
7.13
4.83
5.90
6.25
1985 Average
7.39
7.27
4.97
6.09
6.44
1986 Average
7.42
7.20
4.93
6.11
6.44
1987 Average
7.45
7.08
4.77
6.21
6.37
1988 Average
7.48
7.04
4.70
6.20
6.35
1989 Average
7.65
7.20
4.72
6.25
6.45
1990 Average
7.83
7.34
4.74
6.40
6.57
1991 Average
8.04
7.53
4.83
6.51
6.75
1992 Average
8.21
7.66
4.83
6.74
6.82
1993 Average
8.32
7.74
4.85
6.88
6.93
1994 Average
8.38
7.73
4.77
6.84
6.91
1995 Average
8.40
7.69
4.66
6.88
6.89
1996 Average
8.36
7.64
4.60
6.91
6.86
1997 Average
8.43
7.59
4.53
6.91
6.85
1998 January
7.87
7.22
4.36
6.37
6.57
February
7.97
7.29
4.31
6.63
6.52
March
8.01
7.28
4.33
6.72
6.53
April
8.23
7.31
4.30
6.69
6.51
May
8.49
7.45
4.41
6.69
6.67
June
8.53
7.61
4.65
6.83
6.97
July
8.58
7.69
4.85
6.84
7.21
August
8.57
7.67
4.78
6.69
7.14
September
8.43
7.55
4.62
6.56
6.95
October
8.25
7.44
4.42
6.76
6.69
November
8.04
7.11
4.32
6.11
6.39
December
7.92
7.11
4.30
6.69
6.46
Average
8.26
7.41
4.48
6.63
6.74
1999 January
R 7.55
R 6.92
R 4.24
R 6.51
R 6.37
February
R 7.90
R 7.12
R 4.29
R 6.39
R 6.44
March
R 7.87
R 7.08
R 4.16
R 6.54
R 6.36
April
R 8.07
R 7.01
R 4.21
R 6.53
R 6.34
May
R 8.24
R 7.13
R 4.28
R 6.60
R 6.44
June
R 8.40
R 7.33
R 4.50
R 6.63
R 6.76
July
R 8.46
R 7.47
R 4.76
R 6.66
R 7.04
August
R 8.39
R 7.40
R 4.84
R 6.63
R 7.02
September
R 8.33
R 7.36
R 4.53
R 6.61
R 6.80
October
R 8.34
R 7.33
R 4.43
R 6.66
R 6.64
November
R 8.07
R 7.06
R 4.24
R 6.32
R 6.35
December
R 7.91
R 6.81
R 4.17
R 6.47
R 6.34
Average
R 8.14
R 7.18
R 4.40
R 6.55
R 6.60
2000 January
7.61
6.82
4.15
5.98
6.29
R=Revised.
1 of 2
5/24/2000 10:42 AM
http://www.era.doe.gov/pup/energy.overview/monthly.energy/mer9-9
Notes:
Prices are calculated by dividing revenue by sales. Revenue may
not correspond to sales for a particular month because of electric utility
billing and accounting procedures. That lack of correspondence could result in
uncharacteristic increases or decreases in the monthly prices. See Note 7 at
end of section.
Geographic coverage is the 50 States and the District of
Columbia.
Sources: See end of section.
2 of 2
5/24/2000 10:42 AM
Table A2. Annual U.S. Macroeconomic and Weather Indicators
Year
/1987
1988
1989
$1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Macroeconomic
Real Gross Domestic Product
(billion chained 1996 dollars
6093
6349
6569
6684
6669
6891
7054
7338
7537
7813
8165
8516
8867
9219
9514
GDP Implicit Price Deflator
(Index 1996=1.000)
0.779
0.805
0.835
0.868
0.897
0.917
0.942
0.961
0.982
1.000
1.017
1.029
1.043
1.061
1.077
Real Disposable Personal Income
(billion chained 1996 Dollars)
4563
4766
4885
4991
5026
5200
5254
5388
5533
15678
5885
6125
6367
6620
6880
Manufacturing Production
1.418
1.504
(Index, 1992=1.000)
0.928
0.971
0.990
0.985
0.962
1.000
1.037
1.100
1:159
1.213
1.298
1.361
1.464
Real Fixed Investment
(billion.chained 996,dollars)
856
887
911)
895
833
887
958
1046
1109
1213
1316
1472
1590
1702
1780
Real Exchange Rate
1.152
1.153
1.159
1.102
(Index, 990=1.000)
NA
NA
NA
0.999.41.007
1.013
1.057
1.034
0.961
1.017
1.104
Business Inventory Change
(bilion(chained 1996 dollars)
8.4
16.9
14.2
8.9 -
-6.8
1-4.7
3.6
121
14.1
10.1
22.1
25.1
0.9
9.9
12.5
Producer Price Index
((index. 1982=1:000)
1.028 1.069 1.122 163 1.165 .172 1.189 1.205 1.248 1.277 1.276 1.244 1.255 1.303 1.308
Consumer Price Index
(index, 1982 1984=1'000)
1.137 1.184 1.240 1.308 1.363 1.404 1.446 1.483 1.525 1.570 *1.606 1.631 1.667 1.714 1,746
Petroleum Product PricerIndex
(Index 1982=1:000)
0.568 0.539 0.612 0.748 0.671 0.647 *0.620 0.5911 0.608 0.701 0.680 0.513 0.610 0.782 0.716
Non-Farm Employment
(millions)
102.0 105:2 107.9 109.4 108.3 108.6 110.7 114.14 117.2 119.6 122.7 125.8 128.6 131.2 133.0
Commercial Employment
((millions)
65.2
67.8
70.0
-70.8
71.2
73.2
76.1
78.8
81.1
83.9
86.6
89.5
91.8
94.1
Total:Ind ustrial Production
(index, 1992=1/000)
0.932
0.974
0.991
0.989
0.970
1.000
1.034
1.091
1.144
1.195
1.270
1.324
1.370
415
1.451
Housing Stock
(millions)
99.8
101.6%
102.9
103.5
104.5
105.5
106.8
108.2
109.6
111.0
1125
114.3
115.8
117.0
118.3
Weather
a
Heating Degree-Days
U.S
4334
4653
4726
4016
4200
4441
4700
4483
4531
4713
4542
3951
4177
4251
4464
New England
6546
6715
6887
5848
5960
6844
6728
6672
6559
6679
6662
5680
6007
6354
6478
Middle Atlantic
5699
6088
6134
4998
5177
5964
5948
5934
5831
5986
5809
4812
5334
5555
5712
U.S Gas Weighted
1391
4804
4856
4139
1337
4458
24754
4659
4707
4980
4802
4185
4409
4429
4703
Cooling Degree Days(U.S.).
269
283
1156
1260
1331
1040
1218
1220
1293.
1180
1156
1410
1277
1240
1234
Population-weighted degree-days. A degree-day indicates the temperature variation from 65 degrees Fahrenheit (calculated as the simple average of the daily minimum and maximum temperatures) weighted by 1990
population.
Notes: Historical data are printed in bold; forecasts are in italics.
Sources: Historical data: latest data available from: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Federal Reserve
System, Statistical Release G.17(419); U.S. Department of Transportation; American Iron and Steel Institute. Macroeconomic projections are based on DRI/McGraw-Hill Forecast CONTROL0300.
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook -- May 2000
43
Thu Jun 1 13:07:02 2000 Page 1
EIAl.do
tm
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
Statistics/Data Analysis
User: Leigh L. Linden
Project: CO2 Concavity
1. /********
> *** Detrend the series
> ********/
2. sort year
3. gen dntek = nonhitek[_n] - 1.03148*nonhitek[_n - 1]
(1 missing value generated)
4. gen dco2 = co2[_n] - 1.007727*co2[_n - 1]
(1 missing value generated)
5. gen tntek = 1.03148*nonhitek[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
6. gen tco2 = 1.007727*co2[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
7. gen cheat = htdgyear[_n] - htdgyear[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
8. gen ccool = cldgyear[_n] - cldgyear[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
9. gen cfoss = ffppcomr[_n] - ffppcomr[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
10. gen cres = eleprrer[_n] - eleprrer[_n-1]
(1 missing value generated)
11. gen ccom = eleprcor[_n] - eleprcor[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
12. gen ccoal = ffppcoar[_n] - ffppcoar[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
13. gen cgas = ffppngr[_n] - ffppngr[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
14. gen coil = ffppoilr[_n] - ffppoilr[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
15. gen cnumref = numrefin[_n] - numrefin[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
16. gen crefcap = refincap[_n] - refincap[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
Tech2v4 Thu Jun 1 13:07:02 2000 Page 2
EIAl.do
17. gen cnetsum = netsumca[n] - netsumca[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
18. gen cextra = extralos[_n] - extralos[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
19. gen cpdctu = cpvtyund[_n] - cpvtyund[_n-1]
(3 missing values generated)
20. gen cpdcts = cpvtysur[_n] - cpvtysur[_n-1]
(3 missing values generated)
21. gen cnumele = numeleut - numeleut[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
22. gen propcoal = hrscoal/hrstotal
(1 missing value generated)
23. gen cprpcoal = propcoal[_n] - propcoal[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
24. gen cresl = cres[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
25. gen ccom1 = ccom[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
26. gen cfoss1 = cfoss[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
27. gen ccoall = ccoal[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
28. gen cgas1 = cgas[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
29. gen coill = coil[_n-1]
(2 missing values generated)
30. /*******
> *** Residential Electricity
> *******/
31. reg dco2 dntek cheat ccool cres1 cres (dntek cheat ccool cresl cnetsum cnumel
> e cprpcoal) if year < 1999 & year > 1960
Instrumental variables (2SLS) regression
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs =
37
+
F( 5,
31) =
20.59
Model
33281.8043
5 6656.36086
Prob > F
= 0.0000
Residual
1
9733.19261
31
313.973955
R-squared
= 0.7737
Tegh2v
Thu Jun 1 13:07:02 2000 Page 3
EIAil.d
Adj R-squared
=
0.7372
Total
43014.9969
36
1194.86103
Root MSE
=
17.719
dco2
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
cres
-33.81025
30.21827
-1.119
0.272
-95.44082
27.82031
cheat
.027059
.0141735
1.909
0.066
-.001848
.055966
ccool
.0117836
.0301695
0.391
0.699
-.0497475
.0733148
cres1
-22.31244
15.41185
-1.448
0.158
-53.74511
9.12023
dntek
.2150862
.0591996
3.633
0.001
.0943479
.3358245
cons
5.675934
3.690897
1.538
0.134
-1.8517
13.20357
32. predict ncpdco2
(option xb assumed; fitted values)
(2 missing values generated)
33. gen pco2 = tco2 + ncpdco2
(2 missing values generated)
34. gen res = abs (co2 - pco2)
(2 missing values generated)
35. gen pres = abs (co2 - pco2) /co2
(2 missing values generated)
36. sort year
37. egen sres = sum (res) if year > 1961 & year < 1998
(4 missing values generated)
38. egen spres = sum(pres) if year > 1961 & year < 1998
(4 missing values generated)
39. replace sres = sres/36
(36 real changes made)
40. replace spres = spres/36
(36 real changes made)
41. list sres spres if year == 1997
sres
spres
3.
12.41092
.0101946
42. sort year
43. list year co2 pco2
year
co2
pco2
Techav4 Thu Jun 1 13:07:02 2000 Page 4
EIAI.do
1.
1960
787.9
2.
1961
793.7
3.
1962
826.6
832.6114
4.
1963
858.6
867.3605
5.
1964
895.2
896.6985
6.
1965
934.5
951.2264
7.
1966
985.7
1008.833
8.
1967
1011.5
1012.767
9.
1968
1069.2
1055.934
10.
1969
1115.6
1117.148
11.
1970
1149
1136.98
12.
1971
1162.5
1170.386
13.
1972
1223.7
1197.09
14.
1973
1277.9
1252.568
15.
1974
1233.1
1232.562
16.
1975
1197
1193.717
17.
1976
1269.5
1231.819
18.
1977
1307.4
1286.824
19.
1978
1320.9
1352.466
20.
1979
1337.7
1338.035
21.
1980
1289.4
1299.336
22.
1981
1256
1262.01
23.
1982
1189.1
1199.387
24.
1983
1182.5
1207.21
25.
1984
1245.2
1243.342
26.
1985
1244.6
1280.6
27.
1986
1245.9
1262.907
28.
1987
1286.6
1279.128
29.
1988
1348.6
1335.273
30.
1989
1360.8
1379.995
31.
1990
1349
1352.034
32.
1991
1335
1330.902
33.
1992
1359
1352.124
34.
1993
1385
1378.572
35.
1994
1410
1407.606
36.
1995
1421
1418.873
37.
1996
1471
1439.389
38.
1997
1493
1486.616
39.
1998
1495
1491.97
40.
1999
1507
1500.68
44. /****
> *** Summary Stats
> *******/
45. su dco2 dntek cheat ccool cfoss cres ccom ccoal cgas coil cnumref crefcap cne
> tsum cextra cpdctu cpdcts cnumele cprpcoal if year < 1998
Variable
Obs
Mean
Std. Dev.
Min
Max
dco2
37
9.83951
34.45789
-76.60513
63.25078
dntek
37
-5.090339
91.44317
-239.8102
183.579
cheat
37
-4.918919
216.0386
-710
353
August 24, 1999
TO:
Joe Aldy
FROM:
Howard Gruenspecht
SUBJECT:
1998 Energy Use
Per your request, I have attached some information regarding energy use during 1998 and
projections of energy use for 1999.
Based on some back-of-the envelope calculations, it appears that weather and production declines
in energy-intensive industries might have depressed energy use by 1 to 1.3 quads during 1998.
Taken together, a reduction in energy use of this magnitude would translate into a reduction of
roughly 20 to 25 MMT in energy-related carbon emissions given the likely fuel composition of the
reduction in energy use.
The latest short-term energy outlook (STEO, August 1998) produced by the Energy Information
Administration projects that energy use in 1999 will be 1.8 percent higher than the 1998 level, and
that carbon emissions from energy will increase by 31 MMT over the 1998 level. This is subject
to some corrections for changes in data reporting as well as the resolution of key "wildcards" over
the rest of the year.
Let me know if you need more. Çã
HKG Draft: 8-19-99
Energy Use and Carbon Emissions for 1999:
Projections from the Short Term Energy Outlook
The Short Run Energy Outlook (STEO), prepared monthly by the Energy Information
Administration, reflects year-to-date energy and economic data as well as the latest projections of
economic and energy market conditions over the coming months. STEO is probably the single
best source for an examination of how 1999 is shaping up from an energy perspective.
The latest STEO (August 1999) projects that 1999 U.S. energy consumption will be 96.4 quads, a
1.8 percent increase over the 1998 level. By way of comparison, energy consumption grew by
only 0.5 percent between 1997 and 1998. Carbon emissions from energy are projected to increase
by 31 MMT between 1998 and 1999.
Note that when EIA checked into an apparent inconsistency between energy #s and an earlier set
of carbon #s they had provided, they indicated that there were potentially some number problems
associated with the recent sale of power plants by utilities (who report to EIA) to independent
power producers (who have taraditionally not reported, but who are now starting to report.) In the
context of electricity restructuring. They indicated that the Sept 1999 STEO could change by up
to 0.5 percent in emissions as they try to reconcile reporting.
The big "wildcards" in short term energy forecasting are weather, oil prices, and the level of
economic activity during the remainder of the year. Consider, for example, the STEO projection
for 1998 energy use that was issued one year ago in August, 1998. In late 1998, oil prices
dropped dramatically towards the end of the year and the economy grew faster than projected,
both of which tend to increase energy consumption. However, mild winter weather at the end of
1998 cut in the other direction by sharply reducing heating demand. As a result of these offsetting
factors, actual 1998 energy use exactly equalled the August 1998 forecast of 94.7 quadrillion Btus,
but its composition was different - less natural gas due to a mild heating season and more oil due
to a robust economy and lower oil prices.
Of course, it is just happenstance that the combination energy-increasing and energy-decreasing
developments in the final 4 months 1998 led to overall 1998 energy usage identical to that
projected in the August 1998 STEO. If all of the big wildcards line up in one direction between
now and the end of the year, actual energy consumption for 1999 could turn out to differ
substantially from the August 1999 STEO projection. Like Yogi Berra said, "it ain't over until
it's over." However, from information available today it appears more likely than not that energy
use and emissions growth in 1999 will exceed last year's exceptionally low levels.
HG/PP Draft 8-19-99
Industrial Energy Use: Explaining Recent
Data
Energy consumption in the industrial sector, which accounts for more than 1/3 of the nation's
total energy use, decreased slightly between 1997 and 1998, a period over which GDP grew by
3.9 percent and overall industrial production grew nearly as fast. The question before us is why
this happened, and whether we can count on a continued "decoupling" of industrial output growth
and industrial energy use.
Manufacturing account for about 55 percent of total industrial energy use. Agriculture,
construction, forestry and fisheries, and mining account for the remainder. While all
manufacturing uses some energy, about two-thirds of manufacturing energy use, or over one-third
of total industrial energy use occurs in the following industries: chemicals, paper products, steel,
and petroleum refining. Therefore, it makes sense to focus on these sectors in examining drivers
of recent industrial energy use trends. Between 1997 and 1998 there was an absolute output
decline in steel and paper, while chemicals production grew at a slow rate.
The change in energy consumption in a particular industry depends on two main factors: (1) the
change in production level, and (2) the change in energy used per unit of production. Both of
these can be influenced by both short and long-run factors. The larger the role played by
short-run factors, the less likely is it that the single-year trend will continue into the future.
Certainly, long-run factors are important. Output growth for energy-intensive industries has been
slower than the growth of overall industrial production. There has also been a steady trend of
energy-efficiency improvements in most energy-intensive industries. Because of these long-run
factors, which we would expect to continue, industrial energy consumption has been growing at a
much slower rate than industrial production over the last decade. These long run trends could be
strengthened by DOE and EPA programs designed to promote energy efficiency improvement in
industry.
However, our review of available information suggests that short-run factors, notably a flat or
declining level of output in the steel, paper, and energy-intensive chemicals sectors between 1997
and 1998, also played a very significant role in driving down 1998 industrial energy use.
Influences such as the recent economic upheavals in Russia and Asia, which significantly impacted
trade patterns in energy-intensive goods, might have played a major effect.
For example, if production in steel, paper, and chemicals between 1997 and 1998 had continued
to grow at the average rates experienced during the 1992 to 1997 period, total industrial energy
consumption would have risen by .3 percent instead of falling by .7 percent between 1997 and
1998. Assuming that this additional energy use had the same composition as average industrial
energy use, GHG emissions would have been roughly 5 MMT higher in 1998.
Finally, it is important to recognize that year-over-year comparisons in energy use reflect the
change in production rather than its absolute level. Data for the first half of 1999 suggest no
evidence of a "bounceback" in production of steel, energy-intensive chemicals, or paper.
However, even if output were to remain fixed at its 1998 level in 1999, comparisons of 1999 to
1998 energy data would not show the same "kick" from these production levels as do
comparisons of 1998 to 1997 data. To the extent that we cannot expect continued absolute
declines in these sectors, the year-over-year decline in industrial energy use during a period of
strong economic growth is probably best seen as an anomaly rather than the new expectation, at
least until more data is in.
Growth rates (%)
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
Avg.
1998
(year over year)
'92-'97
Iron and Steel
4.2
7.1
6.1
3.5
1.3
4.2
4.4
-2.6
Paper Products
0.4
2.4
-0.7
1.9
0.1
4.0
1.4
-1.8
Chemicals
5.1
2.8
2.4
4.4
4.1
4.5
3.9
0.9
Petroleum Products
0.9
2.9
-0.2
1.8
2.2
2.8
1.7
2.0
All Industrial Output
3.1
3.5
5.4
4.9
4.5
6.0
4.6
3.7
Real GDP
2.7
2.3
3.5
2.3
3.4
3.9
3.0
3.9
Industrial energy use
3.4
0.6
2.7
0.9
2.9
0.4
1.8
-0.7
Çã
HKG Draft: 8-19-99
The Impact of Weather on 1998 Energy Use
Although most energy uses is are independent of weather conditions, heating and cooling -
lumped together under the term space conditioning - are important exceptions. Energy used to
heat and cool residential and commercial buildings accounted for nearly 15 percent of total
expenditures by end-users on energy in recent years.
There is significant year-to-year variation in weather, which for space conditioning purposes is
most usefully measured in terms of heating and cooling degree-days. For example, over the past
50 years, annual U.S. population-weighted heating-degree days ranged from 4016 to 4958, while
population weighted cooling degree-days ranged from 1029 to 1348. More "degree-days" of
either type implies more energy use for space conditioning.
Winter weather is more important than summer weather in driving energy use. This reflects the
fact that in terms of heating and cooling expenditures, the United States is a "cold" country. In
1990, one of the warmest years on record, Americans used roughly 4 times as much primary
energy and spent roughly 2.3 times as much to heat their homes and businesses as to cool them.
The expenditure ratio is less than the primary energy use ratio because cooling energy, virtually
100 percent électricity, has a significantly higher cost to the customer per unit of energy content
than average heating energy (a combination of natural gas, fuel oil, and electricity).
Because swings in weather can have quite a large impact on energy use levels, it is important to
take account of their role when interpreting annual variation in energy statistics. For example, in
1998, the U.S. economy grew by 3.9 percent, yet energy use and greenhouse gas emissions
increased only slightly over 1997 levels. Some have tried to interpret this outcome as a clear
indication existing Administration programs and new technologies in the energy market have
successfully "decoupled" economic growth and energy use trends.
While "decoupling" may or may not be taking place, it is clear that weather variation also played
in determining the change in energy use between 1997 and 1998. Heating degree days were 13
percent lower in 1998 compared to 1997, while cooling degree days were 15 percent higher.
Because of the dominance of heating, the overall net effect of climate changes between 1997 and
1998 was a significant reduction in space conditioning energy demand. A rough calculation
suggests that if weather had remained unchanged between 1997 and 1998, primary energy
consumption in 1998 would have been more than 1 percent above its actual value and carbon
dioxide emissions from 1998 energy use would have been 15 to 20 MMT higher than their actual
level.
The Department's programs and new technologies may also be having an impact on energy
consumption, but that effect is likely to be a gradually increasing one that should not show up so
dramatically over a one-year time period. The risk in overinterpreting weather related swings in
energy consumption as an indicator that we are successfully "decoupling" energy use and the
economy is that weather will continue to fluctuate. If we try to take credit for the weather now,
those who seek to question the value of our programs and technologies will use it against us when
the thermometer moves in an unfavorable direction.
Heating degree days during the first four months of 1999 were up 7 percent from their level in the
comparable 1998 period. Data on cooling degree days for this summer are not yet available.
Even though anecdotal evidence suggests a hot summer, last summer was also very hot, so the
year-to-year change in cooling degree days should be relatively small The heating data that is
already in hand, together with the summer data on cooling degree days and heating degree days in
the first part of the upcoming winter, will together determine how 1999 ultimately shapes up
relative to both 1998 and "normal" conditions. Based on what we know so far, we shouldn't
count on getting the same type of "energy dividend" from weather changes that we experienced in
1998.
Çã