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05-20-98 38PM TO 94565542 P001/002 LINDY L PAULL 106TH CONGRESS, 2D SESSION CHICF OF STAFF MARY M. SCHMITT SENATE HOUSE DEPUTY CHIEF OF STAFF (LAW) WILLIAM V ROTM, JR.. DELAWARE, BILL ARCHER, TEXAS. VICE CHAIRMAN BERNAND A. SCHMITT CHAIRMAN JOHN H. CHAFEE, RHODE ISLAND PHILIP M. CRANE, ILLINOIS WILLIAM M. THOMAS, CALIFORNIA Congress of the United States DEPUTY CHICF OF STAFF CHARLES GRASSLEY, IOWA (NEVENUE ANALYSIS) DANIEL PATRICK MOYNIHAN, NEW YORK CHARLES B. RANGEL NEW YORK FORTNEY PETE STARK CALIFORNIA JOINT COMMITTEE ON TAXATION MAX BAUCUS, MONTANA 1016 LONGWORTH HOUSE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON, DC 20515-6453 (202) 225-3621 May 19, 1998 Honorable John McCain United States Senate Washington, DC 20510 Dear Senator McCain: This letter is in response to your request for a revenue estimate of the manager's amendment to S. 1415 offered May 18, 1998. In order to complete the estimate of the manager's amendment to S. 1415, we assumed that the base payment for years beginning in 2003 and thereafter is $23.6 billion before the volume and inflation adjustments. Our estimate presents the net revenue effects of the manager's amendment to S. 1415. These net amounts differ from the gross payments required under the manager's amendment for several reasons. First, the general tobacco industry payments are converted to fiscal year payments. Second, the general tobacco industry payments are reduced by an income and payroll tax offset in the same way that net receipts from an excise tax arc calculated. Third, the higher price for tobacco products resulting from the proposal reduces net receipts generated from present-law tobacco excise taxes because of reduced tobacco consumption. Finally, because the proposal is expected to supercede most of the State-by-State settlements that are implicitinglic Congressional Budget Office baseline receipts forecast, much of the negative indirect effect of the anticipated State-by-State settlements on receipts is reversed. We estimate that the manager's amendment to S. 1415 will have the following effects on Federal fiscal year budget receipts: