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05/08/98 15:26 FAX 202 456 5557
DOMESTIC POLICY COUNCIL
003
05/06/98 WED 14:25 FAX 202 6222633
E UUJ
DRAFT
May 5, 1998
Dear Chairman Hatch,
At my testimony of April 30, you asked for a more detailed presentation of the Treasury
model that underlies our analysis of the Senator McCain's bill (S. 1415) and other tobacco
legislation. You specifically asked for information on how the following eleven issues are treated
in our analysis: state and local excise taxes, smuggling, markups, youth lookback penalties,
elasticity assumptions, non-price effects of the settlement, attorneys' fees, the effect of state
settlements, liability exposure of the companies, export charges and the functional form of our
demand specification.
Following this letter is an analysis that responds to your request. We have included a
detailed technical description of our methodology, providing a step-by-step analysis of how we
draw our conclusion that the McCain bill will raise prices to $3.19, in real terms, by the year 2003
and in so doing, addresses each of the specific issues you raised.
I hope that this letter is sufficiently responsive to the request that you made of me on April
30. I also hope that we can work together towards our jointly held goal of passing the tobacco
legislation that will most effectively reduce youth use of tobacco in America.
Sincerely,
Lawrence Summers
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"ocrText": "05/08/98 15:26 FAX 202 456 5557\nDOMESTIC POLICY COUNCIL\n003\n05/06/98 WED 14:25 FAX 202 6222633\nE UUJ\nDRAFT\nMay 5, 1998\nDear Chairman Hatch,\nAt my testimony of April 30, you asked for a more detailed presentation of the Treasury\nmodel that underlies our analysis of the Senator McCain's bill (S. 1415) and other tobacco\nlegislation. You specifically asked for information on how the following eleven issues are treated\nin our analysis: state and local excise taxes, smuggling, markups, youth lookback penalties,\nelasticity assumptions, non-price effects of the settlement, attorneys' fees, the effect of state\nsettlements, liability exposure of the companies, export charges and the functional form of our\ndemand specification.\nFollowing this letter is an analysis that responds to your request. We have included a\ndetailed technical description of our methodology, providing a step-by-step analysis of how we\ndraw our conclusion that the McCain bill will raise prices to $3.19, in real terms, by the year 2003\nand in so doing, addresses each of the specific issues you raised.\nI hope that this letter is sufficiently responsive to the request that you made of me on April\n30. I also hope that we can work together towards our jointly held goal of passing the tobacco\nlegislation that will most effectively reduce youth use of tobacco in America.\nSincerely,\nLawrence Summers"
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