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MEMORANDUM TO: ToM FREEDMAN, MARY L. SMITH FROM: DREW HANSEN RE: ISSUES FROM WEEKLY AND MONTHLY MAGAZINES DATE: AUGUST 12, 1997 MAGAZINES CONSULTED: Business Week (August 11), The Economist (August 9), Fortune (August 18), The New Republic (August 25), Newsweek (August 18), Time (August 18), U.S. News & World Report (August 18/25). ATTACHMENTS: tables of contents for all of the above; "Hostility in America," James Q. Wilson, The New Republic, August 25, pp. 38-41 (review of Crime is Not the Problem: Lethal Violence in America, Franklin E. Zimring and Gordon Hawkins); "Off the Dole and On the Job," Time, August 18, pp. 42-44; "Fast Food and Welfare Reform," U.S. News & World Report, August 18/25, pp. 16-19 (with companion article, "Few On Welfare Will Be Forced to Work," p. 18). CHILD CARE "Minding the Kids--On the Net," Business Week, August 11, p. 97. WorldWide Access in Chicago is testing a system called KidCam that lets parents with Internet access observe their child's day-care room on their PCS, and (if they have a video camera) have a teleconference with their children. CITIES "City Boosters," Time, August 18, pp. 20-24. "New pragmatist" city mayors are pioneering innovative programs and following a "flexible, post-ideological approach to politics," (p. 21). (A companion article called "Disaster on the Potomac: How Not to Run a City" blasts Washington, D.C. city management.) Mayors have been forced to innovate by declines in federal aid and the loss of their tax base to the suburbs. In Indianapolis, "competing out" (privatizing formerly public services) is saving the city money. In Cleveland, a 60-page "People's Budget" has set priorities for the city, such as improved removal of dead trees and increased lead poisoning screening for children. Cleveland also has a $72 million light rail line and a new sports arena. The city now has a balanced budget and has accumulated a $25 million contingency fund. In Philadelphia, Edward Rendell is widely credited with "saving" Philadelphia by facing down a strike by the public-employee unions. Yet critics charge that privatization is only a new form of patronage, as some mayors accept campaign contributions from companies who reaped the benefits of privatization. Also, few mayors are focusing on anti-poverty programs. CRIME "Kinder Cut," The New Republic, August 25, pp. 12-13. Last year's California law mandating chemical castration for several classes of convicted sexual predators will most likely be struck down by a California court next year. But chemical castration can be effective in circumstances more limited than those in which it is used in California; states should consider tailoring their laws to specific categories of offenders who are likely to be helped by chemical castration. "Hostility in America," James Q. Wilson, The New Republic, August 25, pp. 38-41 (review of Crime is not the Problem: Lethal Violence in America, by Franklin E. Zimring and Gordon Hawkins). *article attached. Zimring and Hawkins use World Health Organization data to argue that people kill each other more often in America than in other countries largely because Americans are more heavily armed than residents of other countries. Zimring and Hawkins also point to the frequency and violence of personal conflicts as an explanation for crime in America. They reject explanations based on the media and on drugs. Wilson contends that homicide rates in the African-American community are largely driving the high rates of crime in America, and explains high homicide rates in the African-American community by the "legacy of slavery, lynching, and past failure to enforce the law when blacks harmed other blacks," (p. 39). Possible solutions for gun-driven violence: identifying and questioning carriers of concealed weapons, making homicide sentences longer, early intervention in the lives of at-risk children and their mothers and fathers. EDUCATION "The Class of Boxcutter High," Business Week, August 11, p. 24. A new research paper by economist Jeffrey Grogger of UCLA finds that minor levels of school violence (faced by about two-thirds of public school students) reduce students' chances of graduation by 1% and chances of going to a four-year college by 4%. Moderate levels of violence (faced by about 9% of students) reduce students' chances of graduation by 5% and college attendance by 7%. "Defining Disability Down," Ruth Shalit, The New Republic, August 25, pp. 16-22 (cover story). An investigative piece arguing that current legal protection of some kinds of learning disabilities (LD) is a "subversive challenge to basic notions of fair play, professionalism, and equal protection under the law," (p. 17). Learning disabilities are vaguely defined in statutes such as the Rehabilitation Act of 1973 and the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA). Even though the ADA is not supposed to lower educational or vocational standards, the Department of Education's Office of Civil Rights regularly rebukes school districts who do not exempt LD children from educational requirements. The author of the article argues that under current law "The fact that one displays a marked lack of aptitude for a particular intellectual discipline or profession establishes one's legal right to ensure at least a degree of success in that discipline or profession." Example: in 1993, a would-be attorney filed a lawsuit after failing the bar three times, charging that she was reading disabled and had not been provided with adequate accommodation for her disability. On July 3, 1997, the court ruled in the plaintiff's favor, arguing that the plaintiff's skills were impaired not when compared to an "average person in the general population" but when compared to her fellow would-be lawyers, setting up a legal protection for a plaintiff who apparently lacked some of the requisite skills of lawyering. There are few adequate tests to determine whether an individual has a certain learning disability or not. The Boston University Office of Learning Disabilites Support Services had, until a recent audit, never turned down a student's request for special dispensation on the grounds that he or she had not presented enough evidence. The number of learning disabled cases is significant and increasing: only 14% of ADA lawsuits are filed by persons with physical disabilities (being in a wheelchair, being deaf or blind). The Department of Education estimates that about half of the 5.3 million disabled children in Individual Education Programs are learning disabled. About 300,000 LD students are currently enrolled in college. Protections for LD students on SAT tests has led to scores that considerably overpredict their college grades. The lack of standards for determining LD cases and the special protections granted to LD individuals under the law has led to an explosion in so-called "boutique" diagnoses, such as "dyscalculia" (inability to learn math) and "Oppositional Defiant Disorder" (a disability signaled by a child's "recurrent pattern of negativistic, defiant, disobedient, and hostile behavior"). "Boutique" therapies have been keeping pace: in Orange County, parents are demanding that school districts pay for horseback riding to help their children who have "executive function disorder" (difficulty initiating, organizing, and planning behavior). FCC "Memo to the FCC: Make Deregulation Work," Business Week, August 11, p. 33. Deregulation efforts have been generally unsuccessful in opening up all phone markets to competition. The FCC should do the following: codify anti-monopoly standards currently in effect, pre-empt anti-competitive rules at the state and local levels, and publicly name companies that stymie competition. HEALTH CARE "Guess Who's in the Waiting Room?," Business Week, August 11, p. 32. Investigations into health care fraud are increasing: the FBI initiated 2,300 health care probes in the first half of 1997, up from 591 in 1992. Big fraud cases besides Columbia/HCA: SmithKline Beecham Clinical Laboratories reached a $325 million settlement with the Department of Justice earlier this year because of false billing for lab tests; the University of Pennsylvania agreed to pay $30 million last year after being accused of billing Medicare for services of teaching doctors when residents performed the work. Significant fraud probes are currently underway in the hospital industry, and managed care probes are expected. "Should the FDA Lower the Threshold?," Business Week, August 11, pp. 94-95. Controversy over approval of Myotrophin, a drug for Lou Gehrig's disease. The drug's manufacturer (Cephalon) argues that the drug has worked and that further research is too expensive, while the FDA argues that there is not enough evidence to justify approval (FDA advisers voted 6-3 not to approve the drug, with only non-physicians voting for approval). Cephalon argued that the FDA should suspend its rules, as it did with some AIDS and Alzheimer's drugs, to allow interim treatment with the drug while Cephalon continued research into the drug's effectiveness "Little Baby Steps," U.S. News & World Report, August 18/25, p. 22. The recent expansion of child health insurance will probably only cover under 20% of the nation's 10 million uninsured children because some currently insured children will be dropped from private coverage and switched into the government system. But safeguards in the plan similar to those adopted by Florida and Minnesota could minimize this "switching" effect. "Peppermint Prozac," Arianna Huffington, U.S. News & World Report, August 18/25, p. 28. 580,000 children nationwide are being prescribed anti-depressants such as Prozac. Yet diagnoses for depression among children are often vague, leading to overprescription as a quick remedy for common childhood problems such as being "unusually sad or irritable" or finding it "hard to concentrate." MARRIAGE/DIVORCE "Do You Mean It?," The Economist, August 9, pp. 20-21. On August 15, a Louisiana law creating "covenant marriages" (an optional form of marriage that requires pre-marital counseling and allows divorce only under certain strict conditions) goes into effect. Critics worry that the law might encourage the types of destructive behavior that are grounds for a divorce (i.e. abuse or infidelity as a quick way to get a divorce from a covenant marriage), that the law does not cover all destructive behaviors (certain kinds of emotional domestic violence), and that the law might encourage long, loveless marriages. "The Ties that Bind," Time, August 18, pp. 48-50. Current backlash against the anti-divorce movement of the early 1990s. Critics charge that a national crusade against divorce is a "think-tank inspired pseudoissue." Some debates: whether divorce helps or hurts children, whether the anti-divorce movement is a backlash against feminism or not, whether divorce is a praiseworthy expression of personal growth or a narcissistic movement of the middle class, whether divorce is a movement of self-indulgent individuals or whether it is driven by social forces such as the economic independence of women. Divorce might be self-correcting: trend in cohabitation combined with rising divorce rate encourages couples to marry less hastily and take marriage more seriously, hence the divorce rate might decrease in time. WELFARE "Off the Dole and On the Job," Time, August 18, pp. 42-44. *article attached. Marriott's Pathways to Independence program boasts a 71% retention rate after two years for its 500 graduates, compared to a 60% retention rate for regular hires. But half of a special class of homeless participants failed earlier this year, and. Packard Bell NEC relied on a city job program in Sacramento to screen and refer applicants. Of the 4,000 workers the company hired, nearly 1,200 had been on federal aid or were unemployed or underemployed. Since 1995, Smith Barney has hired 27 single parents in entry positions at salaries of up to $28,000. Participants get 16 weeks of preparation at Wildcat Services, a New York nonprofit, and then spend 16 weeks as interns. A partnership between Cablevision and the South Bronx Overall development Corporation has led to placement of 130 cable installers, 82% of whom are still working. The Chicago Manufacturing Institute, a federally financed training program, has a 90% success rate in initial placement. The Center for Employment Training, a training program financed by government and private agencies, placed 3,141 graduates last year. United Airlines plans to hire 400 welfare recipients this year. "Fast Food and Welfare Reform," U.S. News & World Report, August 18/25, pp. 16-19. *article attached. The restaurant industry is a crucial provider for jobs for welfare recipients -- 15.5% of Burger King's new hires in the past ten months were welfare recipients. Restaurant jobs stress skills such as punctuality and attitude, as opposed to the specific job skills often developed by government-sponsored training programs. Critics worry that there are not enough fast-food jobs to go around, that fast-food jobs may only help younger people to go off welfare, and that the stigma attached to such jobs might limit their usefulness as welfare-to-work routes. "Few on Welfare Will be Forced to Work," U.S. News & World Report, August 18/25, p. 18. *article attached. A new Urban Institute study argues that fewer than 200,000 of the 3.3 million adults on welfare will be forced into work by the new welfare law. The reasons: many exemptions for states, Labor Department ruling that welfare recipients who work for their benefits must be subject to labor laws. State spending per welfare recipient is increasing, allowing more money for transportation and child care services, because state block grant levels were based on larger caseloads of earlier years. AUGUST 18-25, 1997 / VOLUME 123 / NUMBER 7 U.S. NEWS ONLINE http://www.usnews.com U.S.News ssue MYSTERIES OF SCIENCE 32. The wonder of science is that the more we know, the more we know there is to know. 6 UPDATE 23 LINGERIE LOCKED HIM 38 IS THERE LIFE ON OTHER New Columbia/HCA boss UP. Sexual paranoia, one PLANETS? The hunt for life orders radical surgery more block to Mideast peace elsewhere begins on Earth 7 OUTLOOK 28 ON CULTURE 40 WERE DINOSAURS COLD 66 HOW DOES ANESTHESIA Bug munchies; the game of Arianna Huffington worries BLOODED? The laws of phys- WORK? A cellular riddle Magic; high-speed ferries about putting kids on Prozac ics may have the final word 68 HOW MANY PEOPLE 9 PEOPLE 31 IN BRIEF 48 WHAT IS SLEEP FOR? WERE HERE BEFORE COLUM- Jeanne Calment; William Teamsters; teens and drugs; Rest, infection fighting, cool- BUS? 1 million? 10 million? Burroughs; Allen Iverson divorce; plane crashes ing the brain, learning, un- 71 WHAT IS A MEMORY? 11 WHISPERS learning, or none of the above Nothing like a computer's White House bars nonessen- SPECIAL REPORT: 52 WHY SHOULD MALES 74 HOW DO GENES SWITCH tial staff from Air Force One WHAT SCIENCE STILL EXIST? According to evolu- ON? Or: How did evolution SEEKS TO DISCOVER tionary biology, they craft new body designs? U.S. NEWS 32 COVER STORY: NO END shouldn't 78 HOW MANY SPECIES ARE 16 FAST FOOD AND WEL- OF MYSTERIES. Nineteen un- 55 WHY DO WE AGE? Is it THERE? Biology's black hole FARE. Lasting reform may answered questions in sci- wear and tear or a molecular 83 HOW STRANGE IS THE hinge on burger flipping ence's never-ending quest to time bomb in our cells? UNIVERSE? Theories collide 19 FRESH APPLE. Will Mac- get at the truth 58 WHAT CAUSES ICE AGES? 86 EVERYDAY MYSTERIES. intosh lovers ever sleep with 34 HOW OLD IS THE Blame it on the Himalayas- Barking dogs; hot peppers; the enemy? UNIVERSE? An answer may or the evolution of grasses violins; noise; hiccups 22 ON POLITICS be close-but it raises new 63 CAN A COMPUTER BE Matthew Miller says kids' questions about the origins of CONSCIOUS? Steven Pinker 92 EDITORIAL health coverage won't go far the cosmos on the nature of awareness Attention must be paid COVER: Digital photo montage by James Porto for USN&WR Copyright © 1997. by U.S. News & World Report Inc. All rights reserved. U.S. News & World Report (ISSN 0041-5537) is published weekly, except for one combined issue mailed in August and a second combined issue mailed in De- cember, $44 75 per year. by U.S. News & World Report Inc., 2400 N Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20037 196. Periodicals postage paid at Washington. D.C., and at additional mailing offices. POSTMASTERS: Send address changes to U.S. News & World Report. PO Box 55929, Boulder, CO 80328-5929. U.S. News may allow others to use its mailing list. If you do not want your name included, please contact our Subscription Department by mail or phone. U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT U.S. NEWS WORLD REPORT NEWS YOU CAN USER SCANDOMETER™ WASHINGTON WHISPERS Canadian Post International Publications Mail (Canadian Distribution) Sales Agreement No. 545643, Canadian Goods and Service Tax No. R124481334 News & World Report uses automatable polywrap Printed in the U.S.A. EDITORIAL AND CORPORATE OFFICES ADVERTISING OFFICES SUBSCRIPTION DEPARTMENT 2400 N Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20037-1196, (202) 955-2000 1290 Avenue of the Americas, Suite 600, New York, NY 10104, (212) 830-1500 PO Box 55929. Boulder, CO 80322-5929, (800) 333-8130 H PHOTOGRAPHS (FROM LEFT): LOUIS PSIHOYOS-MATRIX HOWARD SCHATZ FOR USN&WA; CHIP SIMONS FOR USN≀ U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, AUGUST 18 / AUGUST 25, 1997 3 MICHAEL ELINS FOR USN&WR: MAX AGUILERA-HELLWEG FOR USN&WR: JOSEPH PLUCHINO FOR USN&WR (ATOM) JAMES PORTO FOR USN≀ (INDIAN) JOHN WHITE MICHAEL HOLFORD become even more empty and self- contradictory than usual. García Már- quez's most recent stunt was to depart for self-imposed exile from Colombia once again, proclaiming that he could Hostility In America no longer abide the corrupt rule of President Ernesto Samper, a man whom he had previously defended from gringo BY JAMES Q. WILSON charges of narco-democracy. His refuge? That great drug-free zone, Mexico. (It'is just a matter of time before we hear Crime Is Not the Problem: about his intense friendship with, and Lethal Violence in America the Herculean work habits of, Cuauh- témoc Cárdenas.) by Franklin E. Zimring and Gordon Hawkins arcía Márquez's advice to (Oxford University Press, 259 pp., $35) G young journalists is very, ne of the more frustrating lem, and that the main goal of public very strange. At his semi- O difficulties facing students policy ought to be to reduce violence. nar in Cartagena last year, of crime is our inability to To do that, we must first understand a dozen of Latin America's most promis- compare crime rates across why our rate of violence is so much high- ing reporters heard him declare that countries. Interpol gathers crime data er than in England, Australia, France or "journalism is not a job, it's a gland." from national police agencies, but it does Germany. The answer given by Zimring Picking up the morning Cartagena so in a way that make its reports next to. and Hawkins is that we kill each other paper, he turned to the classified ads. worthless. The agency fails to assess the more often (and engage in property A woman was selling her brand-new quality of the accounts that it receives, crimes, such as robbery, that often have stove, still in pieces. "Why is the stove and it presents them in a way bound to fatal outcomes) in large part because unassembled?" García Márquez won- cause confusion. Thus, not long ago, Americans are more heavily armed than dered. "This could be a story. Should someone published an op-ed essay in are other societies. Opponents of gun we call?" No one at the table knew quite which the author claimed that the control will reflexively object to this con- what to say. Netherlands had a higher murder rate clusion, but, if they are to prevail, they But if that non-story qualifies for Gar- than did the United States. That is, to will have tough going against the argu- cía Márquez's front page, his own part- put it mildly, an implausible idea. In his ments made here. Using data from the nership with Castro is not necessarily defense, however, he displayed the Inter- World Health Organization, a group the news. "This is not an interview," he pol report. At first glance, the document that counts dead bodies instead of mere- barked when a member of the seminar seemed to confirm his view, until one ly repeating police reports, and gather- broached the subject. "If I want to ex- noticed that every homicide reported ing facts from big-city police depart- press my opinion on Fidel, I'll write it for the United States was completed- ments abroad, Zimring and Hawkins myself, and believe me, I'll do a better that is, there was a dead body-but the show that American cities are not very job." (Besides, this professor of jour- homicides reported for the Nether- different from foreign ones of similar nalistic ethics charges up to $10,000 lands included both completed and size with respect to theft or burglary, but for an interview, using the proceeds to attempted (no dead body) homicides. they are vastly higher with respect to rob- finance his film institute in Havana.) The attempts, of course, far outnum- bery and homicide. New York City has "Fidel is one of the people I love most in bered the actual murders, and there was less theft and burglary than London but the world," he explained. "A dictator," no explanation of how the Netherlands vastly more robberies and homicides. someone muttered. The writer shot decided which actions were attempted The same difference exists between Syd- back: "To have elections is not the only murders and which were just everyday ney, Australia, and Los Angeles. way to be democratic." But a Venezuelan assaults. We do not know very much, in Robbery involves the threat of vio- member of the seminar persisted: "No short, about how the characteristics of lence; burglary need not involve vio- one has elected you to office. You don't nations or their various criminal justice lence, though violence may occur if the have'a public office, why do you act as policies affect crime rates. dwelling is occupied when the burglar Fidel Castro's honorary chancellor?" Franklin Zimring and Gordon Haw- enters. In neither crime is death likely. "I will not respond to a question asked kins, two members of the Earl Warren But thefts in American cities are more in bad faith," García Márquez huffed. "I Legal Institute at the University of Cali- likely to lead to death than are thefts in do it because he is my friend, and I fornia at Berkeley, have plunged into other nations. In 1992, there were seven believe one must do everything for one's this thicket, fully aware of the snags that deaths in London resulting from a bur- friends. I am always running errands for it contains, to sort out how American glary or robbery; in New York City, there my friends." crime rates differ from those of compa- were 378, even though New York has Only a few months after this remark- rably industrialized nations. No one will fewer such crimes than does London. able exchange, the author of News of a be surprised to learn that the United American property crimes are much Kidnapping stood before the Inter-Ameri- States has a far higher rate of violent more deadly than English ones, in large can Press Association and denounced crime, especially homicide, than West- measure because our thieves are armed. "bad journalists [who] cherish their ern Europe or Australia. But some may And much the same story can be told source as their own life, especially if it is be astonished to learn that the rate of about assault. When one Londoner an official source, and endow it with a property crime here is similar to the attacks another, death occurs in less than mythical quality, protect it, nurture it, rate of property crime elsewhere, and in one-half of 1 percent of the cases, but and ultimately develop a dangerous com- many cases it is much lower. Zimring and when one New Yorker attacks another, plicity with it. The errand-runner Hawkins conclude that what is often death is the result in over 3 percent of lacks a sense of irony. He also lacks a described as the American "crime prob- the cases. The reason in part is that sense of decency. lem" is in reality a lethal violence prob- firearms are used in 26 percent of all 38 THE NEW REPUBLIC AUGUST 25, 1997 New York assaults but in only 1 percent as in Los Angeles, and yet those places ure to enforce the law when blacks of assaults in London. differ dramatically in lethal behavior. harmed other blacks. Oddly, Zimring When all cities are exposed to the same and Hawkins write as if the explanation till, the use of guns is not the media, it is hard to see how the media S is either unimportant or obvious. It is, in whole story. If one looks can explain differences in violence. No fact, neither. If African American mur- only at robberies in which doubt there are copy-cat killers, but their der rates were the same as white murder no gun was involved, the numbers are too small to explain why rates,' the national murder rate would death rate in New York City is still three people in Tokyo almost never kill and drop substantially. The effect of lowering times as high as it is in London. Even those in Atlanta often do. the black murder rate to equal the white in murder cases, guns are not essential:- Violence also accompanies drug deal- one would not make America as safe as 30 percent of all American homicides ing, but the proportion of murders that other industrialized nations, but it prob- did not involve a gun. This means that are connected to the drug trade is too ably would have at least as big an effect New Yorkers without a gun kill one an- small to make much of a difference. The as banning the existence of all hand- other more often than do Londoners best estimates are that no more than 10 guns. Non-gun homicides in New York however armed. Obviously something percent of all killings are connected to more than weaponry makes New York the drug trade, though from time to a more lethal environment than Lon- time the percentage is much higher in a don. few cities. Moreover, the laws on drug- Since guns are not the whole story, we dealing are about as tough in Australia Facing Prostate have extraordinary differences among as they are here, but drug-connected our states in how frequently people are deaths are about sixty times more com- Cancer? killed. Maine and North Dakota have the mon in Los Angeles than in Sydney. In lowest homicide rates in the country, less the United States, drug dealing on a than one-tenth of the rates in Louisiana large scale has probably created an and Mississippi, but the reason cannot array of armed gangs that make violent. call be that no one in Maine or North encounters, and thus lethal ones, more Theragenics Cancer Dakota owns a gun. Rural states are likely. But why? That is like asking why Information Center, probably armed to the teeth, as anyone the vast majority of drug users are in knows who has visited them during deer this country even though almost every I-800-458-4372 hunting season. The answer must be that country has similar laws. personal encounters in rural states are more law-abiding and less productive of here is another contribut- personal violence. North Dakota not T ing factor that the authors GOVERNMENT FORECLOSED only has the second-lowest murder rate, confront, but not, I think, HOMES FROM it has the second-lowest property crime quite adequately. They ask pennies on $1. Delinquent Tax, rate. whether the very high rate of violence Repo's, REO's. Your Area. Zimring and Hawkins suggest that among African Americans explains the Call Toll Free: 1-800-218-9000 many American communities are more American homicide rate. There is no dangerous not only because guns are Ext. H-4377 for current listings denying the core facts. Blacks are five more available, but also because per- times as likely to kill as are whites; black sonal conflicts are more frequent and males are six times as likely to kill as are The ancient realists were Epicureans, more violent. In their words, firearms white males. Homicide is the leading and they were regarded as dangerous to are "neither a necessary nor a sufficient cause of death among young black civilization by Roman leaders, who cause of violent death," but they are a males, but it is the tenth cause for Ameri- favored the idealistic philosophies of contributing factor. If two men meet in a cans as a whole. Zimring and Hawkins do Platonism, Aristotelianism, and Stoicism. bar or on a street corner and have an not have much to say about why this is Epicureans denied Providence, viewed argument, the result of that quarrel will true, except to argue that it is probably man as an evolved animal, saw virtues depend heavily on what weapons might because African Americans live dispro- and laws as manmade, avoided be available with which to manage any portionately in urban "slum neighbor- involvement with government, spurned communism, and welcomed women and escalating violence. If there are only fists, hoods" and because less violent middle- slaves as fellows. Jews abhorred only a fist fight can ensue; if there are class blacks live in "racial zones" that put Epicureans. Nevertheless, evidence exists guns, there may be a fatal shootout. them in close proximity to poor blacks. that Jesus based his teaching on Many years ago Zimring published arti- This is not much of an explanation. Epicureanism, only changing its theory of cles suggesting that murder was often Just limiting ourselves to big-city resi- how immortal gods are made into a the consequence of an ambiguously dents reduces the black-white difference theory of how immortal human beings motivated assault: at the outset, nobody in homicide. from eight times nationally are made. This evidence is in the recently intended the death of the other, but, as to only (only!) four times at the big-city discovered Gospel of Thomas, a collection the fight progressed and a gun was at level. Moreover, other equally poor and of 113 sayings of Jesus which radically hand, death was the result. To reduce geographically isolated urban groups differ from the Bible's. They are demon- deaths one must either reduce the likeli- strably notes taken while Jesus taught, for have much lower crime rates. Koreans, they match chronologically the vestiges of hood of fights or disarm the fighters. Vietnamese and Chinese are often poor, history that underly the Markan myth. In their new book, Zimring, and and recent arrivals, and many of them They reveal the historical Jesus and his Hawkins largely reject other popular live in similar "racial zones," but they kill recurring use of Epicurean tenets. explanations for violencé. They have lit- at a far lower rate than do African Amer- You Will Not Taste Death tle use for studies of the impact of the icans. media, and I think that their rebuttals JESUS AND EPICUREANISM Now, explaining these differences is are essentially correct. Violence in the not easy. I am not certain what it is, but I by Jack Hannah, 321pp.pbk. $12 postpaid. media is everywhere, in London as expect that it has much to do with the Frank Publishing, 1816 Springmill Road, Mansfield, OH 44903-8907 much as in New York, in Sydney as much legacy of slavery, lynching and past fail- AUGUST 25, 1997 THE NEW REPUBLIC 39 on the great increase in juvenile y this point the reader homicide rates that took place between 1985 and 1992. Young B expects that Zimring and Four Corners, Vermont Hawkins will offer some people, white and black, were be- remedies for murder. Giv- October sun, blue sky coming much more lethal in the en their analysis, there are only two burning the fields sienna, late 1980s, probably owing to such remedies: reduce the availability of even the governor upstate the spread of gangs, their in- guns or lower the frequency of hostile raking a lawn, his kingdom volvement in drug trafficking, encounters. But they suggest neither. of this world. That afternoon and easier access to guns. The Though they devote two long chap- on Main Street, at the four increase was greater for blacks. ters to "Prevention," reading them re- corners, the cop was trying In the last few years, that rate minds me of watching Mike Hargrove to push a small bat with has declined a bit, and this prob- getting ready to bat. He comes to the the butt of his pistol from ably helps to explain why the plate. He stretches his shirt, tugs at his the window-box by the door homicide rate generally in the glove, pulls at his pants, shifts his cap. of the Putnam Hotel, an country has experienced so adjusts his grip. He gets in place. Then unused window-box sharp a dip. he backs out and does this all over again. where the bat, mistaken, caught But this dip may prove to be To watch Hargrove at bat was like killing by daylight, had fluttered down short-lived. Census figures show time during a rain delay. Will this ever like a fallen leaf. Three that there will be an increase in end? townsmen, not doing much the proportion of young people In this book, no. Zimring and Haw- but holding their own, keeping on the streets in the next few kins write that a "book of this kind would up on the news, kept watch. years, and there is no reason yet be a terrible place to posit a detailed and The policeman laughed, tucking to suppose that those who now comprehensive program of loss preven- his pistol back in its lead a life of no fathers, gangs tion from violence A terrible place? holster. The teenage bellhop for friends and easy dollars in Franklin Zimring has devoted much of so far with nothing to do the drug trade have decided the last thirty years of his professional to abandon that life. Rescuing career to studying the impact of guns on has pitched the bat out now. It quavers to the walk young people from those condi- violence, and he still has nothing to say by the rail of the hotel stairs. tions, a frightfully difficult and about what we should do? If not now, The bellhop and a man expensive proposition, may be as when? wearing a jack shirt, worn effective as figuring out a way Of course, he does have a few things and too small for his arms, (none now exists) to deny them to say, but mostly by way of criticiz- stomp at it, grinding their heels access to the knives and guns ing other people's ideas. Zimring and between the palings. The boy with which they can kill others. Hawkins dislike many of our prison poli- runs back inside. It is Zimring and Hawkins neglect cies because they think that, under the Norman Rockwell-ish, this almost all of these issues in their impact of those policies, we send too tableau the passers-by desire to reassure us that there is many nonviolent offenders to prison. are watching. Soon the boy no "black problem" in crime. They argue that, in California, the I'm sorry, but there is. It is cer- "three strikes" law has had no connec- is back and kneeling with a fork. The leaves have fallen tainly not the whole problem, tion to the recent reduction in the rate but the day is warm; even and solving it would certainly of violent crime, but they leave the the governor tidies his lawn. not solve America's violence explanation of this controversial judg- problem; Zimring and Hawkins ment to a document that they do not The boy will jab at the black are right to point out that equal- bother to summarize. (You will have to remnant, the tines will ring out, hitting the pavement izing racial differences in mur- look it up. But I warn you, it will be a again; again. Everyone der, desirable as that may be, waste of your time.) They attack people in the land must know his place, would still leave America's homi- who support various popular anti-crime any beast cide rate at least twice as high programs for making absurd predictions of the field his lair, his own. as the rate in other major indus- and failing to evaluate the results. trialized nations. An all-white They are probably right about this. STEPHEN SANDY America would be much more But what programs do they favor, and lethal than Italy, Canada, France, how should we evaluate them? They Germany and England, and speculate about regulating handguns, vastly more lethal than Japan. but they offer no idea as to how it might City are three times as common as all But that is not the end of the story. It is be done better. They ruminate about homicides in London, a number that is impossible to deny that very high rates violent encounters, but they suggest no only a bit smaller than the difference in of violence among African Americans way to reduce their frequency except to white-only homicide rates between the (rates that may have been coming down suggest that victims be "as cooperative as two countries. of late among black adults) not only con- possible" if they are threatened by a rob- In fact, Arnold Barnett of MIT has tribute mightily to the problem of life in ber. They note that some people are try- made some calculations that suggest that our cities, they also disfigure and polar- ing to teach violence avoidance in the the homicide rate of adult black males ize any effort to deal with our most seri- schools, but they conclude that there are has in fact been coming down much ous domestic problem. The authors at "insufficient data to form a judgment" as faster than the white homicide rate. No least acknowledge this effect. As long as to whether these plans work. one is quite certain why this has oc- black violence is at so high a level, they Perhaps Zimring and Hawkins are curred, though certain possible explana- observe, it will reinforce "white fear in vague because they do not have any tions-social progress, residential relo- ways that palpably contribute to the good ideas. That is not an embarrassing cation-are obvious enough. We tend to exclusion of blacks from the social main- predicament. Very few people have good forget these trends and to dwell instead stream." ideas about this subject, and for good 40 THE NEW REPUBLIC AUGUST 25, 1997 reason. Eric Monkkonen, after years of afford to say that, while it is having its PROTECT YOUR COPIES OF careful digging in historical records, has own trouble protecting people against THE been able to show that the homicide rate crime, it wants to deprive these 65,000 NEW REPUBLIC in New York City has exceeded that of people of the means to protect them- These custom- VO London by a factor of at least five for the selves. Under such conditions, you don't made titled cases of last two hundred years. Similarly, Roger need the National Rifle Association to are ideal to protect Lane has shown that in the early defeat a government effort to disarm your valuable nineteenth-century Philadelphia had a Americans. copies of The New high homicide rate. Big-city Americans There are more desirable and less Republic from dam- were killing each other at a far higher controversial forms of gun control. The age. They're designed rate than were Londoners long before most important is to reduce the chances to hold a year's issues the invention of radio and television, that a person will carry concealed on his (may vary with issue sizes), constructed and. long before the introduction of person an unlicensed weapon while he with reinforced board, and covered with semi-automatic weapons (and automatic walks about town. With a bit of new tech- durable leather-like material in flag blue. ones) or the sale of any drugs (other nology that is now being developed, it Title is hot-stamped in silver and cases are may become much easier for the police V-notched for easy access. than alcohol). It is very hard, I think, to 1-$8.95 3-$24.95 devise an easy way to reduce a homicide to spot and to question such gun carri- 6-$45.95 rate that has been so high for so long. ers. Doing this may reduce the rate at The New Republic The hostility of American encounters is which guns will cause angry encounters Jesse Jones Industries, Dept. 95TNR at least as important as the presence of to escalate into lethal violence. 499 East Erie Ave., Philadelphia, PA 19134 American guns. If New York City can We also might wonder a bit about the magnitude of our penalties for homicide. Enclosed is $ for have a non-gun homicide rate that is cases. Add three times larger than the total homi- They are about the same here as in $1.50 per case for postage and handling. Outside USA $3.50 per case (US funds only). cide rate in London, then removing all Europe-that is to say, they are short in PA residents add 7% sales tax. guns from the United States (which is both places. Nationally, the median impossible) would still leave us in a trou- homicide inmate is released from prison Please Print bling condition. after only about six years, while in Cali- Name fornia the release comes after about Address uppose we take Zimring's three-and-a-half years. Even many offend- (No P.O. Box Numbers Please) S City State Zip and Hawkins's analysis of ers sentenced to prison "for life" spend the problem as correct, and much less time there. Some inmates, of CHARGE ORDERS (Minimum $15): AmEx, Visa, then try to imagine what course, spend a lot of time in prison. But MC, DC accepted. Send card name, #, Exp. date. might be done. We must begin with the the small number of years the median Call Toll Free 7 days, 24 hrs, 1-800-825-6690 Allow 4-6 weeks for delivery fact that the private ownership of guns (and the average) offender serves sug- cannot be substantially reduced. There gests the low price that we generally place are no point-of-sale restrictions that will on the average victim's life. These sen- reduce this huge stock by very much. tences should be made longer. Moreover, point-of-sale restrictions over- And much remains to be done, finally, look the fact that most guns used in to lead children away from a life on the crimes are stolen or borrowed. And no street. We are still trying to learn how government can do very much when peo- best to do this, but a growing body of evi- ple believe, with some empirical support, dence suggests that early intervention in that having a gun makes you safer. the lives of very young, at-risk children Using the data compiled by the Na- and their mothers (often there is no tional Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) father) can make a lasting difference. It of 56,000 families, scholars have esti- will take another, generation to learn MOVING? mated that there are, at a minimum, be- whether these plausible guesses will bear Don't forget to let US know so you won't tween 65,000 and 80,000 defensive gun lasting results for large number of chil- miss a single issue of THE NEW REPUBLIC. uses per year. Some estimates based on dren, but the nation's perpetually high Just attach your old address label in the private polls suggest much higher defen- homicide rate suggests that it might be first space provided and write your new sive uses, ranging up to 1.5 or even 2.5 time well spent. address in the second space reserved below. million. The data supplied by private Above all, we will have to learn to Old Address (Affix label from this issue.) polls are controversial, since so much think about our crime problem histori- depends on inferring society-wide effects cally, It took England several centuries Name from the answers of a tiny number of of tough rule, brutal punishment and respondents. (If, to take a recent study, the inculcation of class-based values to Address only 54 people out of 2,500 surveyed said achieve a low homicide rate. America has City State they used a gun to defend themselves, spent less time at the task, and it has Zip then each of the 54 represents 68;000 sought to inculcate different values. As New Address Americans. Reporting errors-lies, exag- someone once said, the low murder rate Name gerations, poor memory-on the part of in England is produced the same way you just a few people can have huge effects produce good lawns: plant good seed Address on the total number of defensive gun and then roll it for three hundred years. uses.) So consider instead the much City State Zip Zimring and Hawkins offer some sensi- larger and more reliable NCVS, con- ble data on violent crime rates, but they Mail to: ducted by the Census Bureau, according plant no seeds and they roll no lawns. THE NEW REPUBLIC to which defensive gun uses in America PO Box 37298 are not trivial: 65,000 to 80,000 uses each JAMES Q. WILSON is the author most re- Boone, IA 50037-0298 year. No democratic government can cently of Moral Judgment (Basic Books). Allow 4-6 weeks for change of address to go into effect. AUGUST 25, 1997 THE NEW REPUBLIC 41 OFF THE DOLE AN Trailblazing companies like Marriott and Smith FOR,TIME Barney show how to turn welfare recipients into valued employees By JOHN GREENWALD WANT TO MOVE UP THE CORPORATE ladder." That's not a remarkable state- ment for a career-oriented person-un- til you consider the speaker. Michael Bradford, 38, battled drugs and alcohol- ism throughout his adult life and eight months ago was homeless on Washington's streets. His résumé includes a six-month jail term for burglary. Born into a welfare fami- ly, Bradford fully expected to die in one. No longer. Today Bradford is a poster boy for the barely begun-and some would say doomed-effort to move most welfare clients off the dole and into decent jobs. As a graduate of a six-week welfare-to-work program sponsored by Marriott Corp., Bradford has a foot on the ladder at the company's Crystal Gateway Hotel in Ar- lington, Va., where he cleans and sets up conference rooms for $7.60 an hour (vs. the current minimum wage of $4.75). He gets health insurance and profit sharing and will be eligible for stock options next year. "In the beginning I was doubtful," Bradford recalls. "I had started other train- ing programs but never finished them. I wasn't sure this would end any differently." Bradford isn't the only one with mis- MICHAEL BRADFORD HOTEL HOUSEMAN givings. "The history of job training is dis- AGE 38, ON WEL FARE "off and on sinc el was born." NOW,WORKING FOR Marriott's mal," says Mark Wilson, labor expert at the Crystal Gateway Hotel. After years of aimless drifting and a six-month stint In prison, conservative Heritage Foundation. Yet the completed the Marriott Pathways training program and currently earns $7.60 an how Welfare Reform Act will make training with full health-Insurance benefits more necessary than ever: at least 1.5 mil- lion adults now receiving aid will have to The magnitude of the task has come prepare welfare recipients to fill them. find work by 2002. The vibrant economy home to President Clinton, who has been That's precisely what trailblazing com- has already scooped up the top prospects, pleading with corporate America to hire panies like Marriott and nonprofit outfits leaving many who may be burdened by welfare recipients. This week he takes his like the California-based Center for Em- drug addiction, physical abuse, too many case to St Louis to meet with leaders of ployment Training have been demonstrat- children or too little education. Lots of many of the more than 500 companies- ing-albeit to a still relatively tiny degree. these folks would prefer to be working. But from Boeing to Anheuser-Busch-that be- Under their tutelage, tens of thousands of the more cynical think they never will. long to the Welfare to Work Partnership, former welfare recipients now hold down "The scale of the challenges is so much organized by the White House in May to positions ranging from executive secretary grander than the scale of the remedies that employ people on public assistance. "There to shop-floor inspector to assistant hotel one can't be euphoric," says former Labor are jobs open in every city and community manager. Importantly, the programs are Secretary Robert Reich, who is less than in this nation," says Eli Segal, who heads market driven, providing truly qualified thrilled with the reform legislation. the corporate partnership. "Our task is to workers for companies with real needs. 42 TIME, AUGUST 18, 1997 washed out earlier this year. The company NI ON THE JOB says it will no longer try to work with the homeless in separate groups. FROM MEAN STREETS TO MEGABYTES. Laptop-computer maker Packard Bell NEC took full advantage of the usual lush incen- tives to set up its headquarters in Sacra- mento, Calif., in 1994 in an abandoned Army depot. But of the 4,000 workers the CHRISTINE company hired, nearly 1,200 had been on CRABTREE federal aid or were unemployed or under- employed. Packard Bell NEC relied on a ADMINISTRATIVE city job program that screened and re- ASSISTANT ferred applicants. Then it trained the new AGI 28, ON WELFARE arrivals in everything from team building to on and off since 1991 English as a second language. NOW WORKING FOR The new facility has meant a new life Packard Bell NEC. A for workers like Christine Crabtree, 28, a single mother who was former welfare recipient and the single referred to the company by a training mother of a five-year-old daughter. Crab- program called START, tree parlàyed a one-day assignment as a file she parlayed a one-day clerk into a series of promotions that led to assignment as a file her current position as administrative as- clerk Into a position that sistant to two senior, vice presidents at a pays between $25,000 salary of between $25,000 and $30,000 a and $30,000 a year. "I've had to fight hard, year. Her secret, she says, was to help peo- but I'm here to make a ple around the company with whatever better life for my they needed, "so I could learn everything" daughter and myself about the business. But before that, Crab- tree had found it hard simply "to go out and MARISELA CASTRO find a job when you haven't been working (RIGHT), STUDENT for months. It really does something to MEDICAL your self-esteem." SEND HELP IMMEDIATELY! Some welfare- ASSISTANT to-work programs have proved so success- AGE 22, ON WELFARE ful that the demand for workers has begun 10 months. TRAINING to outstrip the supply. At stockbroker AT CET. A'high school Smith Barney, which since 1995 has hired (dropout, she receives 27 single parents in entry positions at $595 a month In salaries of up to $28,000, executives have welfare and food-stamp benefits for herself and been screaming for another 10 trainees to her 10-month-old start right away. Such newcomers get 16 daughter. After weeks of preparation at Wildcat Services, a completing an nonprofit group in New York City, and then eight-month course of spend 16 weeks as interns under the training in everything from drawing blood to watchful eye of mentors at Smith Barney. growing cultures In a If the brokerage firm doesn't hire them, the ott's Petri dish, she hopes interns can use their training to help land prison, to land a job at a other jobs. "This started out as a search for an hour starting pay rate of at new employees," says Barbara Silvan, a least $10 an hour Smith Barney director of human resources who runs the jobs program. "It had nothing them. lere is a look at some of the leading efforts: are still on the payroll after two years with to do with charity." ng com- TIES THAT BIND. "We are doing a good the company, compared with a 60% reten- Executives of Cablevision were like- t outfits thing, but if the grand gesture doesn't tion rate for regular hires. wise searching for good workers when they or Em- make economic sense, it won't last," says The six-week program combines voca- hooked up with a community group called onstrat- Janet Tulley, the developer of Marriott's tional skills, such as housekeeping and the South Bronx Overall Development degree. Pathways to Independence program. For front-desk management, with life-style Corporation. "Our biggest problem is turn- ands of Marriott, the price has definitely been lessons in everything from grooming to over," says Brian Douglas, a spokesman for I down right. Not only do federal programs and getting to work on time. Welfare recipients Cablevision. "We bring someone in and cretary private charities pick up $3,000 of the "accept failure as part of their lives," Tulley train them, and two months later, they're t hotel $5,000 cost of training each welfare recip- says. "So, if the bus doesn't show up, they gone." But of the 130 cable installers that ns are ient, but graduates have also been a loyal lot just walk away." Marriott discovered that street-savvy SOBRO has placed at starting alified IT a relatively low-paying industry plagued the program has its limitations when half wages of $8 to $10 an hour over the past needs. by turnover. Fully 71% of the 500 graduates of a special class of homeless participants four years, 82% are still on the job. As part TIME, AUGUST 18, 1997 43 las! BUSINESS MONEY IN MOTION of its training, SOBRO teaches its charges to change their "street" attitudes-the sur- Daniel Kadlec vival posture in the tough neighborhoods they live in-to more consumer-friendly faces when they make service calls. Elsewhere, machine shops in the Mid- Capital Gain=Market Pain? west are chronically short of skilled labor. Enter the Chicago Manufacturing Insti- The rate's lower, but Wall Street hasn't noticed tute, a largely federally financed training center that each year graduates up to 300 machine operators and industrial inspec- H OORAY, THE LONG-TERM CAPITAL-GAINS TAX RATE HAS BEEN CUT. THAT'S good news-if you know how to use it. The last two times the rate fell, in tors, many of them former welfare recipi- 1978 and 1981, some distinct patterns emerged: the stock market sank but ents. More than 90% of the graduates ultimately staged a powerful recovery. There was also a noticeable flow swiftly land jobs at $8 to $11 an hour. into the stocks of small companies. The problem is that in this so-called new-era MASTER OF THE GAME. Perhaps no pro- economy, historical benchmarks have been about as useful as an abacus in Sili- gram has moved more students into skilled con Valley. To borrow a phrase from the new-era crowd, it's different this time. jobs than the Center for Employment The tax bill that President Clinton signed into law last week lowers the rate Training. Run on a $40 million annual bud- on long-term capital gains from 28% to 20%. The gains-rate cut in 1978 was from get provided by government and private 35% to 28%, and in 1981, from 28% to 20%. The '81 cut was rolled back in '86. Af- grants, CET last year placed 3,141 graduates ter the '78 tax act, the Standard & Poor's 500 dropped 11% in six weeks as investors in jobs ranging from graphic artists to med- sold stocks in order to record gains that would be ical assistants. Among the recent hires was taxed at the new low rate. In '81, the S&P 500 Pauline Flores, 29, a single mother of five plunged 15% in six weeks. Later the who began work for a Silicon Valley pedia- Cashing Out? markets took off as investors sought trician in May after seven months of med- In the past, when tal low-tax opportunities. The 78 sell-off ical training (cost: nearly $6,500). Today has led to capital paved the way for a two-year runup that Flores earns $8.75 an hour answering reductions, the stock THE enabled the S&P 500 to snap out of a 14- phones, drawing blood, doing labwork and suffered. WIII there year funk. The '81 sell-off set the stage for assisting physician Katherine Wong. "God, it similar. sell- off this time? the mother of all bull markets in 1982. feels good," Flores says of her job. "I wake up S&P 500 INDEX Clearly, the Clinton Administration in the morning and want to come to work." expects a repeat of sorts. It projects $1.2 WINGING IT. United Airlines plans to hire Oct. 15, 1978 Tax bill passed billion of tax revenue this year and $6.3 400 welfare recipients in slots from reserva- billion next year from the sale of stock and tion clerks to cabin cleaners this year. The other assets triggered by the lower rate. 100 carrier has been, using a nonprofit agency Somebody should explain the new era to called GAIN (Greater Avenues to Indepen- Washington: nobody is a net seller of stocks dence) to recruit and train the newcomers, July 7, Jan. 26, anymore. Since the tax act cleared Congress who earn from $5 to $10 an hour to start. To 1978 1979 Aug 1981 on July 28, the market has held up fine. We help smooth any turbulence, United assigns Tax bill passed aren't interested in some piddling tax con- mentors to welfare hires for their first 60 Nov. 30, sideration while stocks are rising 30% a days on the job. "Mentoring is the key to the 1981.130 year. Some selling may materialize this whole welfare-to-work program," says Ta- 125 week as the deadline passes for a line-item lani Wilson, 23, a new personnel clerk and May 198D 120 veto. But so far the response to this tax cut single mother who had been spending six 115 has been nothing like the previous two. hours a day commuting from her Chicago O.K. So there's no immediate pattern apartment to O'Hare International Airport of selling. Shouldn't the lower rate pave before a co-worker found a car pool that cut the way for another bull stampede by en- the time to two hours. "She's really showed couraging more investment? Not neces- me the ropes," a grateful Wilson says. sarily. Unlike the previous two reductions, this Experts are worried that the easy part one comes amid a sizzling love affair with the market. There is no need to rekindle of welfare to work is already over. "We'll our passion for stocks; we're hopelessly obsessed. "This market needed a stimulus see what happens when we get to some of like Einstein needed a higher education," notes Tom McManus, strategist at the harder groups in the case loads," says NatWest Securities. David Ellwood, a professor of public pol- Another departure from the past has to do with the stocks of small compa- icy at Harvard's Kennedy School of Gov- nies. They typically do not pay a dividend-the payoff is in price appreciation. ernment and a former adviser to Bill That makes them more desirable when the cap-gains rate falls because dividends Clinton on welfare matters. "The jury is get taxed as ordinary income-a higher rate for most investors. Yet big stocks have still very much out." True enough. But been rising fastest all year, and that could persist. Why? Big stocks, as defined by companies like Marriott are showing that the S&P 500, now have a measly 1.6% dividend yield, VS. 6% in the early '80s. In the welfare rolls can be a source of valued short, they're also being managed for growth instead of income. Of course, the workers who know how to use a fighting market reacts to many things in the economy, not just tax changes. So nothing is chance. -Reported by William Dowell/ certain, except that the old tools just don't work the way they used to. New York, Chandrani Ghosh and Bruce van. Voorst/Washington, Rachele Kanigel/San Jose Daniel Kadlec is TIME'S Wall Street columnist. Reach him at [email protected] and Jeanne McDowell/Los Angeles 44 TIME, AUGUST 18, 1997 U.S. NEWS Fast food and welfare reform Success of the effort may hinge on 'dead-end' burger-flipping jobs BY JOSEPH SHAPIRO AND BARBRA MURRAY customer when he comes in and looking Taylor, who makes $15 an hour driving a m: him straight in the eye." He can tell from UPS truck in Jacksonville, Fla: "Don't let it WC t the welfare office in Jackson, the sprightliness of the greeting, Walker affect my job." Meanwhile, some other an A Miss., caseworkers regularly hear says, whether someone is going to make it. corporations that President Clinton had me aid recipients say they would be August 22 marks the one-year anniver- touted as models, such as Sprint, have shi happy to get a job-as long as it's sary of when welfare reform became law, brought on far fewer welfare recipients ad not "flipping burgers" at some so the nature of burger flipping-and oth- than anticipated. WC fast-food joint. It's a sentiment echoed by er low-wage jobs-has become an issue of But the success of welfare reform will mc many liberal policy makers. Some argue some importance. The law requires that more likely be determined by individual WC it's better to get low-income mothers into hundreds of thousands of welfare recipi- restaurant franchises than by large corpo- an job-training programs than into menial ents, most with little education and few rations. The restaurant industry employs na jobs. Former Secretary of Labor Robert skills, move into jobs. Their entry into the 10 million workers, 3 million in fast food he Reich often complained that such "dead- work force has already led to a number of alone. And many of the jobs require mini- OV end" jobs don't lead to upward mobility. controversies. In launching its nationwide mal education. Burger King says that in frc Across town in Jackson, though, Mc- strike against the United Parcel Service the past 10 months, 15.5 percent of its new - Donald's owner LeRoy Walker argues that this month, the Teamsters Union cited the hires have been welfare recipients. The sh there are few better places for a welfare prevalence of part-time workers as the question is whether these fast-food restau- we mom to be working. He says even the low- reason. But many employees had come to rants provide real opportunity or dead- an- liest tasks-cooking fries or ringing the believe that UPS's effort to bring on wel- end jobs. tec cash register-teach attention to detail, fare recipients-now about 15 percent of There is some evidence that such work on communication skills, and other work their work force-was keeping wages, has a positive effect on those with little per habits that can build success at any job. It down. "If you want to help people on wel- education or work experience. Harvard on all starts, Walker says, with "greeting a fare, stop giving them welfare," says David public policy professor Katherine New- far 16 U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, AUGUST 18 / AUGUST 25, 1997 CHARLIE ARCHAMBAULT FOR USN&WR (2) a man, for example, studied 200 fast-food CAREER LADDER. Chris Russell mops the floor in sored job training programs are ef- it workers in New York's central Harlem Jackson, Miss. Welfare reform may hinge on low- fective because they stress job-spe- and found that these jobs were among the wage, low-skill jobs like these. Above left, owner cific skills-only to find out that ad most important and positive experiences those jobs have vanished or the LeRoy Walker demonstrates how to greet the public. ave shaping the workers' adolescent and early trainees lack basic work habits. Ac- adult lives. She found that teenagers who cording to Herbert Northrup, pro- worked at fast-food restaurants were before she applied to work at the McDon- fessor emeritus at the Wharton School of vill more likely to hang out with others in the ald's near her house. Before starting there Business, low-paying jobs are often better work force than with the unemployed, last year, Dent says, she did not get out of than training programs at teaching em- and more likely to manage their own fi- bed until 9 or 10 in the morning; now ployees "how to conduct themselves in nances conscientiously. "Older managers she's up at 4 a.m. to open the restaurant business and [behave] like an adult." od help kids understand they have crossed an hour later. Dent's mother, who re- Part of the reason may be that such jobs over a dignity line that separates them ceives welfare, looks after her daughters, allow for the progressive mastery of skills in from ones not working," she says. ages 5 and 2. Tara Ervin, another single that may be useful in themselves but, more Comprehensive studies on welfare have mother who had spent five months on important, show the employees that ad- he shown that the likelihood of making it off welfare, says working at McDonald's in- vancement is possible. Workers at Mc- welfare depends as much on punctuality spired her to train for a job as a deputy Donald's are expected to climb a hierarchy d- and attitude as on education levels or sheriff. Ervin, who has some college edu- of jobs, starting from one of the four grill technical skills. Only 4 percent of those cation, says dealing with rowdy teenage slots and moving toward one of six mana- on welfare have four or more years of ex- customers taught her how to be "authori- gerial positions. Reviews and promotions perience in the work world, according to tative but still nice," a skill she suspects can come as often as once a month. d one study. Ethel Dent, 30, a former wel- will be "helpful around the jailhouse." Even when fast-food workers don't see fare recipient in Jackson, never held a job By contrast, few government-spon- the prospect for direct advancement, they U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT. AUGUST 18 / AUGUST 25, 1997 17 COVER STORY WANTED: A FEW GOOD CEOs Why picking the next occupant of the corner office is so tough, and what companies ought to do about it page 64 Business\ Neek AUGUST 11, 1997 Cover Story 33 COMMENTARY 48 COMMENTARY If the FCC wants to stay relevant, it had Bitter medicine is the only medicine for 64 WANTED: A FEW GOOD CEOs better untangle local telecom monopolies East Asia The vital issue of who will lead a while it still can 57 BRITAIN company in the future gets too little 34 BATTLE STATIONS! BATTLE STATIONS! attention in Corporate America's The City is getting a financial watchdog: Armed with new chip and software Howard Davies executive suites and boardrooms. If the technology, PC makers are gaining in the messy melodramas recently played out 59 INTERNATIONAL OUTLOOK $15 billion workstation market at Apple and AT&T are to be avoided, a Hong Kong's pro-democracy activists 34 SILICON GRAPHICS: A TURNAROUND? succession plan, developed by the board, are bucking Tung's reforms should be in place at all companies, and June-quarter earnings show that it still insiders should be groomed for the top has some of its old magic Economic Analysis job. That's how to avoid ugly surprises 35 ADS FOR GENERATION X 20 ECONOMIC VIEWPOINT These new spots aimed at hard-bitten 69 THE TOP 20 HEADS TO HUNT Dornbusch: Why this recovery won't fall kids and young adults push and shove A BUSINESS WEEK poll of rising CEOS off the track soon the envelope 24 ECONOMIC TRENDS News: Analysis & Commentary 38 IS GREG MURPHY TOAST? Major League Baseball appoints a new Debunking a stock market crash 28 A BUDGET FULL OF GOODIES chief operating officer, and the scenario, violent schools, strong U.S. While the deal could end the deficit as marketing czar's future is in doubt auto sales, incarceration rates BY TED MORRISON early as next year, there is more 25 BUSINESS OUTLOOK 42 IN BUSINESS THIS WEEK spending in it than there is reform Consumers have money to burn, but 30 SIZING UP THE TAX DEAL International Business employers may feel a pinch soon Figuring the winners and losers in the 46 INDIA $94 billion, five-year pact Government Foreign companies see vast market 32 GUESS WHO'S IN THE WAITING ROOM potential on the subcontinent-but 43 WASHINGTON OUTLOOK The feds widen their crackdown on many have been tripped up. Here are The GOP could brawl itself out of power Medicare billing fraud some lessons for investors unless its factions can compromise 2 BUSINESS WEEK / AUGUST 11, 1997 SPEED SELLS THE BREAKS Suddenly, the auto-racing Taxes: Who winds business is sizzling page 86 up ahead page 30 DONORGATE PTOT To.4570 XEROX' BIG HIRE Meet Ted CA Thoman will pare Sioeng-and and refocus page 81 his very open wallet page 84 SOUR DEAL The catch in Avis' IPO page 61 INDIA'S PITFALLS It a land full of traps for investors page 46 84 MAN IN THE MIDDLE 78 DEFENSE DEALS ARE FAR FROM OVER Science & Technology for OF DONORGATE Smaller contractors are linking up like Was Ted Sioeng a conduit for Chinese crazy-and many are undervalued 94 THE FDA: TOO HIGH A THRESHOLD? money or just an overreaching Cephalon wants testing standards eased 80 INSIDE WALL STREET entrepreneur? 97 DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH atchdog: 103 INVESTMENT FIGURES OF THE WEEK Day care and the Net, snoring, chemical Entertainment Information Processing weapons, high-tech metal designs 60 MOVIE CRAZY ON WALL STREET 16 TECHNOLOGY & YOU Personal Business Investors and banks are lining up to A Canon printer that scans color images 98 ONLINE: Auctions on the Net back Hollywood-though they're likely 80A BITS & BYTES SMART MONEY: Reverse mortgages to be the last to see any profits Hacking insights, monitors for traders, fast-food PCS, a mouse called Cat Features The Corporation fall 81 XEROX' REPAIRMAN? 4 UP FRONT 61 AVIS' IPO: BUYER BEWARE Richard Thoman's roll-up-the-sleeves 10 READERS REPORT The upcoming rent-a-car offering won't style was widely hailed at IBM. Now 10 CORRECTIONS & CLARIFICATIONS give investors the same dreamy ride he's taking his act to the copier giant 11 BOOKS that Hertz's recent deal did Freedman and Mann: @Large U.S. Sports Business 12 BOOK BRIEF Finance 101 BUSINESS WEEK INDEX 86 THE VROOM IN AUTO RACING 74 BAD DEBTS, SWEET PROFITS 102 INDEX TO COMPANIES Superspeedways are springing up as but Tulsa-based CFS earns eye-popping 104 EDITORIALS U.S. entrepreneurs tap Wall Street. In. profits as it buys and sells delinquent The budget deal: A lost opportunity Europe, a multibillion-dollar IPO? credit-card loans How to pick the right CEO 90 A GAMBLE AS BIG AS TEXAS Headed for India? Learn the ropes 76 IS KKR GETTING KICKED AROUND? Bruton Smith's new speedway has The firm says a Russian client company 150,000 seats-and 76 trackside condos INDUSTRIAL/TECHNOLOGY EDITION power is reneging on millions of dollars it owes KKR in expenses, fees, and équity BUSINESS WEEK ONLINE: Internet: www.businessweek.com America Online: Keyword: BW BUSINESS WEEK / AUGUST 11. 1997 3 AUGUST 9TH 1997 The Economist SUMMARIES BUSINESS 4 Politics this week 53 Jardines faces Superman 5. Business this week 54 Labelling gene food 55 Management focus: Health care LETTERS 56 UPS fails to deliver 6 On Turkey, French firms, currencies, 56 Advertising drugs Basque terrorism, Kashmir, Lebanon, 59 Apple and Microsoft logging in British Columbia, virtual 60 Face value: Halsey Minor manufacturing, film stars, Versace FINANCE AND ECONOMICS LEADERS 61 Stockmarkets at giddy heights 13 Lovely while it lasts 62 Russia's thriving investment banks 14 The battle of Russia's capitalisms 63 The rebased rouble 15 Thailand on the mend 64 Reluctant Turkish shareholders 15 Remaking Kenya ON THE COVER 64 Shaking up German insurance 16 Reforming corporate governance It is easier to say why share prices should 17 Labour's fair honeymoon now sag, especially in America; than it is 65 Battling banks in Belgium to explain why they still have further to 66 munificent ones in Italy UNITED STATES climb: leader, page 13; a world tour of 68 Economics focus: Cartels the markets, page 61 19 California is working again SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 20 Making marriage work again EUROPE 69 100 years of aspirin 21 Mayor Barry sidelined 21 A fading dream in Oregon 41 Germany's dismal year ahead 70 The genome of Helicobacter pylori 70 Embarrassing statistics 22 The CIA comes quarter-clean 42 and its EU budget moan 71 Ultraviolet vision in birds 26 Lexington: The soldiers' lot 42 Russia's feuding businessmen 72 Reviving LPs with lasers THE AMERICAS 43 Movement in Bosnia MOREOVER 27 Argentina's opposition gets together 44 Albania's shaky future 73 Chris Patten's inside story 27 Mexico's drug-sullied army 44 France's durable elite 74 Cape Town's Olympic bid 28 General strike in Venezuela 46 The puzzle of Spain's prince 75 Milan's museum of shaving 29 Four years of Bolivian reform 75 The art of Harlem ASIA BRITAIN 76 Letter from Odessa 31 Thailand after the IMF deal 47 From business to politics OBITUARY 32 What the IMF wanted 48 The church versus the prince 77 William Burroughs, scatological 33 China strives to feed itself writer 34 and North Korea starves 48 Not-so-green Britain 34 Japan and Russia make friends 49 Sporting imports INDICATORS 36 Freedom of speech erodes in India 88 Economic and financial statistics on TV. Thes 15 OECD countries, plus closer looks Economist INTERNATIONAL at commodities, economic forecasts, FIRST PUBLISHED IN SEPTEMBER 1843 37 Can Arafat take on Hamas? to take part in "a severe contest and savings 38 The IMF cuts Kenya off between intelligence, which presses forward 90 Economic and financial statistics on and an unworthy; timed ignorance 38 Murmurs from Oman obstructing our progress 25 emerging markets, plus a closer 40 Piracy, alive and threatening look at poverty WEB EDITION www.economist.com EDITORIAL OFFICES IN LONDON, AND ALSO: BANGKOR BERLIN BONN BRUESELS EDINBURGH HONG KONG JOHANNESBURG LOS ANGELES MEXICO CITY MOSCOW NEW YORK PARIS SAO PAULO TOKYO WASHINGTON PRINCIPAL COMMERCIAL OFFICES: 15 ST JAMES'S STREET LONDON SWIA IHC TEL: 0171 830 7000 FAX: 0171 839 2968/9 111 WEST 57TH STREET NEW YORK, NY 10019 TEL: 1 212 541 5730 FAX: 1 212 541 9378 25/F DAH SING FINANCIAL CENTRE 108 GLOUCESTER ROAD HONG KONG TEL: 852 2585 3888 FAX: 852 2802 7638 © 1997 THE ECONOMIST NEWSPAPER LIMITED. NO REPRODUCTION 15 PERMITTED IN WHOLE OR PART WITHOUT THE EXPRESS CONSENT OF THE ECONOMIST NEWSPAPER LIMITED VOLUME 344 NUMBER 8029 careful planning "The for in- we've fulfilled our c e, estate, and d I of retiring "My view is that succ ti can with a summer we're at the very actually go to home. And if we tag end of a super- 125%, but Uncle could do it with- bull market," says Sam is only author- out the millions Barton Biggs of ized to take 100% movie stars pay, Morgan Stanley. 68 of your assets.' 132 anybody can." 154 Index 10 Editor's Desk 16 Letters 20 FORTUNE Archive 230 AUGUST 18, 1997 VOL. 136, NO. 4 First: 1997 RETIREMENT GUIDE 26 What Ever Happened Introduction 56 To the Asian Miracle? Almost every economy in Asia will How to Beat the Boomer Rush 59 feel ripples from the summer's wave Get your retirement plans set ahead of the biggest demographic wave in Ameri- of devaluations. by Paul Krugman can history, a mammoth market craving the same things. by Geoffrey Colvin INVESTING 28 Malone Tightens His Grip on TCI Can Stocks Still Rise? 68 That the bulk of the founder's Barton Biggs of Morgan Stanley and Robert Farrell of Merrill Lynch contem- shares ended up in Malone's hands plate the future of stocks and where to put your money. by Lawrence A. Armour shows him at his best-and worst. Getting a Fix on Bonds 77 29 Who Gets What Three Ways to Win in Mutual Funds 84 In the Star Wars Toy Deal Beating the market even one year is hard; only a few funds have done it for a Hasbro and Galoob joust over decade. How? The managers we profile have just one thing in common: success. licenses for the next Star Wars toys.. The Best Mutual Funds for Your Retirement 94 36 GET REAL YOUR RETIREMENT CHECK Lessons of the Great Depression It's Time for a Peek 108 The new view among economists is Don't panic: Social Security will be there for you 109 Unraveling the mys- that it was caused by adherence to teries of your pension plan 110 Tomorrow's taxes-retirement may be more the gold standard. by Rob Norton expensive than you think 121 A worksheet to help you with the tally 122 PLANNING 42 Univision: The Real Fifth Network Tuition Terror 126 The Spanish-language broadcaster, You may have to save fast for old age and the kids' college. It won't be easy, but based in Los Angeles, is beginning you still have time to save and keep the health club memberships. by Anne Field to challenge the big four networks. Estate Planning: You'd Be Amazed! 132 44 The Cult of the Astro Van Mistakes even sophisticated people make-and the millions it costs them. Chevrolet's boxy, low-tech van has Should You Build an IRA? 139 developed a passionate following Conventional wisdom says retirement money should go where the tax deferrals among Japanese yuppies. are-in nondeductible IRAs, for example. Wrong. by Jeffrey H. Birnbaum They're Out to Steal Your Money 142 48 o DEMOCRACY! Today's con artist is more sophisticated than ever, using every trick from phantom Hey! Look! The Trough Is Full! securities to the Internet to crack your retirement nest egg. by Erick Schonfeld The politics of a budget surplus The Whole Life Pitch 149 prove as contentious as the politics of the deficit. by David Shribman What to know about whole life insurance-before you sign up. by Marcia Vickers LIVING 49 BING! "What I've Learned" 154 Hello, I Must Be Going Three retirees relate their experiences-and prove that retirement can be as Low mirth weight, spasms of rewarding as any other time of life. by Ed Brown false decisiveness, brain seepage: In Search of Shangri-La 160 We've seen these symptoms If you hunt hard enough, you can still find sun-soaked retirement havens that before. by Stanley Bing are lively, charming-and even affordable. by Justin Martin Cover: Photograph by Brian Smith. 6 FORTUNE August 18, 1997 anning, our retiring mmer if we with- Ilions pay, an." 154 NO. 4 56 59 8 MICHAEL MELFORD Making the right decisions today will determine whether the sweetest parts of your retirement dream can become reality. 4. Features Smart Managing Emerging Markets 168 214 Microsoft: First America, Investors may never have heard of Thimphu or Muscat, but they could be putting Now the World money in their stock exchanges by century's end. A photo essay. by Eileen P. Gunn Bill Gates believes he can tap into untold wealth in overseas markets. Adidas: Back in the Game 176 Here's how his plan works. The venerable German shoemaker has pulled its financial socks up. Now it's scoring by Brent Schlender some points in the U.S. market. by Charles P. Wallace 221 THE LEADING EDGE Will Uncle Bud Sell Hollywood? 185 Yikes! Deadwood Lowell Paxson, of Home Shopping Network fame, has quietly assembled TV stations in Is Creeping Back most of the big markets. His crusade: create a seventh network by renting out airtime, To save money, CEOs have been now.filled by infomercials, to the Tinseltown studios. by Marc Gunther firing their headquarters staff. Now it turns out that many of these Digital Watch 208 NETS AT WORK costly jobs are simply ending up Intranets Reach the Factory Floor elsewhere in the organization. 200 Is Intuit Headed for a Meltdown? Motorola needed to produce com- by Thomas A. Stewart As new technology offers consu- plex modem assembly instructions mers more options, Quicken is los- fast. Its solution: Post them on an 224 BOOKS ing its market niche. by Eryn Brown intranet. by Mary J. Cronin Hire a Consultant- And Start Praying 205 Secrets of a High-Tech Talent Scout 211 ALSOP ON INFOTECH You may get the advice you An interview with David Beirne, I Should Have Blamed Microsoft! desperately need when you bring big-time infotech headhunter. Forget those complaints about in consultants, point out the digital products built by consumer authors. You also may spend 206 Voice Recognition Grows Up electronics companies. Even a lot of money on useless blather. NaturallySpeaking is music to the worse is hardware designed by a by Ronald B. Lieber ears of those who hate to type. software company with a monopoly. by Michael J. Himowitz by Stewart Alsop 227 ASK ANNIE Will a Career Switch Mean Less FORTUNE Get FORTUNE plus interactive specials online at http://fortune.com Pay? What's a Boss's Promise Worth Now? and Other Queries Download the FORTUNE 500 list at http://fortune.com/fortune500 ONLINE From Readers Post your opinion on our forum at http://pathfinder.com/boards/fortune by Anne Fisher August 18, 1997 F O R T U NE 7 NEW THE REPUBLIC A Weekly Journal of Opinion Editor-in-Chief and Chairman AUGUST 25, 1997 FOUNDED 1914 MARTIN PERETZ WASHINGTON, D.C. Editor MICHAEL KELLY ISSUE 4,310 Literary Editor LEON WIESELTIER Executive Editor JONATHAN COHN Senior Editors PETER BEINART JOHN B. JUDIS. CHARLES LANE. WILL IAM POWERS. HANNA ROSIN. ANDREW SULLIVAN, MARGARET TALBOT, JAMES WOOD Legal Affairs JEFFREY ROSEN Cover by Tika Buchanan for THE Managing Editor NEW REPUBLIC. Illustration by DAVID GRANN Guy Billout. Article on page 16. Assistant Managing Editor DEBRA DUROCHER Films Theater 4 CORRESPONDENCE A failed assassin begs to differ &c. STANLEY KAUFFMANN ROBERT BRUSTEIN Poetry Dance MARK STRAND MINDY ALOFF 6 MICHAEL KELLY TRB: THE FREELANCE William Weld goes tilting at a windbag. Why? Art JED PERI. 7 THE EDITORS UNFEARLESS LEADER It's time to hold Arafat accountable. New Republic Books (Basic Books) PAUL GOLOB New Republic Online (Electronic Newsstand) 8 NOTEBOOK Resurrection for DeConcini, redemption for Packwood &c. BRIAN HECHT Contributing Editors FOUAD AJAMI. ELJOT A. COHEN, STANLEY CROUCH, 10 ED HENRY ON THE HILL: DODD MAN OUT In the campaign finance hearings, Senator JEAN BETHKE ELSHTAIN, NATHAN GLAZER. Christopher Dodd has the next best thing to immunity: he's a member of the club. ANN HULBERT, MICKEYKAUS. MICHAEL KINSLEY, CHARLE KRAUTHAMMER. VINT LAWRENCE MICHAEL LEWIS, GLENN LOURY. 11 JOHN B. JUDIS RUBIN SANDWICH Robert Rubin won the battle over tax details. Too bad DOUGLAS McGRATH, LOUIS MENAND. DAVID RIEFF, ROGER ROSENBLATT. MICHAEL SANDEL. Bill Archer won the war over the budget. MAGGIE SCARE. ROBERT SHAPIRO. RONALD STEEL, E.V. THAW, TOM TOLES, TATYANA TOISTAYA, 12 CRAIG TURK KINDER CUT. Two cheers for chemical castration. In moderation. MICHAEL WALZER, JACOB WEISBERG. SEAN WILENTZ ALAN WOLFE, C. VANN WOODWARD ROBERT WRIGHT Special Correspondent 14 CINQUE HENDERSON MYTHS OF THE UNLOVED Why do so many blacks believe that white ANNA HUSARSKA America seeks to destroy them? Because it's less painful than believing that white Associate Editors JACOB HEILBRUNN. RUTH SHALIT America doesn't care about their destruction. Design Consultant ERIC BAKER 16 RUTH SHALIT DEFINING DISABILITY DOWN Bad at math? Can't sit still or stay awake in Editorial-Corporate Coordinator LAURA F.. OBOLENSKY class? Not to worry. Under the law, you can now claim to have a learning disability Production Director and be eligible for a lifelong buffet of perks and special breaks. BRUCE STEINKE Production Manager HENRY RIGGS 23 GLENN C. LOURY THE HARD QUESTIONS: DOUBLE TALK Ducking the real race question. Assistant Editors SUSAN ELLINGWOOD. ROBYN GEAREY, STEPHEN GLASS 24 STANLEY KAUFFMANN ON FILMS: REGARDING REALISM Air Force One is wonderfully Assistant Literary Editor implausible; Mike Leigh's Career Girls is dully plausible. MELANIE REHAK Staff Writer 25 JOSHUA RUBENSTEIN THE NIGHT OF THE MURDERED POETS The truth about JONATHAN CHAIT Reporter-Researchers August 12, 1952. MICHAEL BRUS. CATHERINE ELTON, SYDNEY FREEDBERG JR., DARA HORN, ADAM KIRSCH 30 CHARLES LANE THE WRITER IN HIS LABYRINTH News of a Kidnapping by Gabriel García President and Publisher Márquez, translated by Edith Grossman JOAN M. STAPLETON Vice President 38 JAMES Q. WILSON HOSTILITY IN AMERICA Crime Is Not the Problem: Lethal Violence in JAMESJ McCABE Associate Publisher-Advertising America by Franklin E. Zimring and Gordon Hawkins JENNIFER BARRETT Associate Publisher-Circulation 40 STEPHEN SANDY POEM Four Corners, Vermont JAMES J. SMITH Controller CHRISTINA R. BONIFER 42 LEON WIESELTIER WASHINGTON DIARIST: OUT OF CONTEXT. Circulation Director CECELIA M. STEPHENS Marketing Manager THE NEW REPUBLIC, Vol. 217, Number 8, Issue 4,310, August 25, 1997. (Printed in the U.S. on August 6, 1997.) SHABNAM K. SHARMA Published weekly (except for combined issues dated Jan. 6 & 13, July 14 & 21, Aug. 11 & 18, and Sept. 8 & 15, 1997) Advertising Manager at 1220 19th Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036. Telephone (202) 331-7494. The New Republic Advertising ASHLEYH. COOPER Sales Office (212) 702-4882. Yearly subscriptions. $69.97; foreign, $99.97 (U.S. funds); Canada, $84.97 (U.S. funds). Accounting Assistants Back issues, $3.50 (includes postage & handling). © 1997 by The New Republic, Inc. (ISSN 0028-6583). Periodicals JACQUELYN M. McCULLOUGH KIMBERLY BERNING postage paid at Washington, DC, and additional mailing offices. Indexed in Readers' Guide, Media Review Digest. Circulation Assistant Microform, Canadian Periodical Index, CD-ROM, issue and article copies are available through University Micro- CLAIRE P. STERN films Intnl., 300 N. Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106. Telephone 1-800-521-0600. Internet mail address: Advertising Assistant [email protected] Member, Audit Bureau of Circulations. Unsolicited manuscripts can be returned only if accompanied KATHLEEN WILEY by a stamped, self-addressed envelope. Subscribers: Please send all remittances, changes of address, and subscrip- Back Issues and Reception tion inquiries to Subscription Service Dept., The New Republic, P.O. Box 37298, Boone, IA 50037-0298. For sub- MARGO JOHNSON scription problems call 1-800-827-1289. AUGUST 25, 1997 THE NEW REPUBLIC 3 TO CHANGE WITHOUT LAND ROVER NOTICE NORTH AMERICA INC. TOP THE WEEK SPECIAL REPORT The Cover: Apple's Big Brother? by Steven Levy 22 Steve Jobs: 'Like Nixon to China' 26 CEOs: Who'd Want This Job? 30 Microsoft: Bill Does What's Good for Bill by Allan Sloan 31 about NATIONAL AFFAIRS a New York City: We'll Take Manhattan hology to by Jerry Adler 32 that The Mayor's Marriage Why Vanity Fair Should Have Said No by Jonathan Alter 38 tech- Senate: Helms's Summer Squall human 'INTERNATIONAL Korean Air 801: Fly the Risky Skies by Mark Hosenball and Russell Watson 40 Montserrat: Another Paradise Lost by Brook Larmer 43 Clinton: Looking for a Legacy? 46 PHOTO ILLUSTRATION JOBS BY BUSINESS Focus Groups: Enough Talk by Leslie Kaufman 48 UPS: Big Brown's Union Blues 'Capital Gains': Dividing the Tax-Cut Pie by Jane Bryant Quinn 51 ifiable and THE ARTS THE COVER: Is Bill Gates good for Apple? Inside his unlikely high-tech Music: Elvis Lives 52 alliance with Steve Jobs-and what it means for the Mac faithful. Page 22 Good Rockin' by David Gates 54 Burning Love by Karen Schoemer Takin' Care of Elvis Inc. 62 SOCIETY The Community: Coach or Cult Leader? by Daniel Glick and Andrew Murr 64 MICHAEL A. MEYERS-U.S. NAVY-REUTERS Medicine: Aspirin at 100 66 TV: Hip-Hop Talk Shows 67 Media: No Magazines for the '90s by Richard Turner EVERETT COLLECTION Internet: The Gossipy Drudge Report 69 DEPARTMENTS Periscope 6 Perspectives THE ARTS: Twenty years after INTERNATIONAL: More Cyberscope 10 Newsmakers 47 his death, the King lives on. Page 52 doubts about Korean Air. Page 40 Millennium 12 'The Last Word' by COVER: Photo illustration by Michael Elins and Todd Reublin-@neo. My Turn 14 George F. Will 70 Letters 16 Inset photograph: Neal Peters Collection. Newsweek Letters to the Editor should be sent to NEWSWEEK, 251 West 57th Street, New York, NY 10019-1894. In the U.S. send subscription inquiries to NEWSWEEK, P.O. Box Boulder, CO 80322-9967. NEWSWEEK (ISSN 0028-9604), August 18, 1997, Volume CXXX, No. 7. In Canada send subscription inquiries to NEWSWEEK, Inc., Box 4012, Postal Station A, Toronto, Ontario M5W2K1. Canada Post International Publications Mail (Canadian Distribution) Sales Agreement No. 546593. Canadian GST No. 123- 321-309. For all changes of address call 1-800-634-6850. For all other inquiries call 1-800-631-1040. Unless otherwise indicated by source or currency designation, all terms and prices are applicable in the U.S. only and may not apply in Canada. NEWSWEEK is published weekly. except for 2 issues combined into one at year,end, for US $41.08 a year and Canadian $61.88 a year, by NEWSWEEK, Inc., 251 West 57th Street, New York, NY 10019-1894. Richard M. Smith, Editor-in-Chief and President: Stephen Fuzesi Jr., Chief Counsel and Secretary. Periodicals postage paid at New York, NY, and at additional mailing offices. To order reprints (minimum order required: 500 copies) or request permission to publish a NEWSWEEK article, please call 212-445-4870 or fax 212-445-4929 POSTMASTERS: send address changes to NEWSWEEK, P.O. Box 59968, Boulder, CO 80328-9968. Printed in U.S.A. c 1997 NEWSWEEK. INC: 251 WEST 57th STREET. NEW YORK, N.Y. 10019-1894. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. AUGUST 18, 1997 NEWSWEEK 3 AUGUST 18, 1997 TIME VOL. 150 THE WEEKLY NEWSMAGAZINE BROOKS KRAFT-SYGMA FOR TIME DIANA WALKER FOR TIME DAVID FRITTS-TONY STONE IMAGES INC His Honor: Mayor White and others Operation Apple: Can Steve Jobs save the Storm Signals: This year El Niño may making a difference (see NATION) company he co-founded? (see COVER) be truly bratty (see SCIENCE) AMERICAN SCENE: Don Orlando buries the mules 2 EMPLOYMENT: Welfare to Work 42 TO OUR READERS 4 Training is the key to success when hiring people on the dole LETTERS 7 MONEY IN MOTION: Capital Gains and Wall Street 44 NOTEBOOK 11 Daniel Kadlec on why the tax cut won't mean a market drop WASHINGTON DIARY: Margaret Carlson on sex and politics 18 19 SOCIETY AND SCIENCE STONES DIVORCE: Saving Marriages-at What Cost? 48 NATION Is breaking up getting to be too hard to do? The debate that once focused on preserving families is turning to the question MAYORS: The New Breed 20 of the quality of married life Indianapolis, Milwaukee, Cleveland and other cities that Alienated Affection: A startling North Carolina judgment 50 were once nearly moribund are being nursed back to health by an innovative generation of leadership SPORT: Gen X on the Tee 52 Washington: Can it ever be fixed? 22 Tiger is not the only young golfer at the forefront VIEWPOINT: Robin Hood in Reverse 24 SCIENCE: Tempest in the Pacific 56 Why do the poor have to pay for George Church's retirement? Climatologists see evidence of a major El Niño in the making WORLD SPACE: Sending for the Repairmen 59 A new team of cosmonauts tackles Mir's recurring problems CAMBODIA: Memories of Pol Pot 26 Roger Rosenblatt remembers a visit to a refugee camp and THE ARTS talks with the children of war, who are now in their 20s CINEMA: In the Company of Men, compelling in a repelling BUSINESS way, is shaking up women and some men too 60 Pretty Julia copes with goofy Mel's Conspiracy Theory 62 COVER: Steve and Bill to the Rescue 28 ART: Cambodia's grand, imperiled sculptural heritage 64 Once upon a time; one was Luke Skywalker and the other MUSIC: Garth Brooks gallops into New York City 66 was Darth Vader, both of cyberlegend. Now they are improbable allies in the fight to save a Silicon Valley legend: SHOW BUSINESS: Tarantino is back in the director's chair 70 Apple Computer. TIME followed the company's "adviser," BOOKS: Biographies of two '50s masters of the drama 72 Steve Jobs, whose day job is running Pixar Animation Studios, TELEVISION: South Park's cartoon kids aren't for kids 74 during an amazing week of corporate intrigue that led him to The new late-night question: Is it live, or is it Arsenio? 77 a deal with Microsoft titan Bill Gates THE OUTLOOK: Sleeping with the Enemy 35 PEOPLE: Donny and Marie redux; Travolta as President 79 The bailout will keep Apple whole, but for how long? LABOR: Crunch Time for Ron Carey 41 The Teamsters boss puts his fate on the line in the UPS strike COVER: Photograph for TIME by Diana Walker TIME (ISSN 0040-781X) is published weekly except for two issues combined into one at year-end and a special issue in May, 1997 for $59.94 per year by Time Inc. Principal Office: Time & Life Building, Rockefeller Center, New York, N.Y., 10020-1393. Reginald K. Brack Jr., Chairman; Don Logan, President, CEO; Joseph A. Ripp, Treasurer; Robert E. McCarthy, Secretary. Periodicals postage paid at New York, New York, and at additional mailing offices. © 1997 Time Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited. TIME and the Red Border Design are protected through trademark registration in the United States and in the foreign countries where TIME magazine circulates. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to TIME, P.O. Box 30601, Tampa, Florida 33630-0601. For subscription queries, call Customer Service at 1-800-843-TIME U.S. NEWS often benefit from the relationships with Walker, 47, refers to his 573 employees At one of Walker's franchises, Lawanda four managers and co-workers. "The fast-food as "my children." Most of them, even Ghoston, the manager, talks of the time $8, industry is one of the few employers that those in their 30s and 40s, call him "Dad- she blew her savings at a riverboat casino. pov stay in urban areas," says Bryna Shore dy." Many have little contact with their Walker gave her an advance to turn her fast Fraser, deputy director of the National own fathers. An imposing, broad-shoul- electricity back on-but not before getting ins: Institute for Work and Learning. New- dered man, Walker visits his 10 stores her to design a savings plan. plo man agrees fast-food managers often daily and often probes the lives of the em- Stripping off uniforms. It's important not for make good role models. "In some neigh- ployees, asking questions like: "How are to overromanticize fast-food jobs, though. borhoods, kids don't know a lawyer or a your grades? What kind of friends are The wages are often at or near the $4.75 fro doctor," says Newman, "but they could you hanging out with? Why are you wear- minimum wage, which may not be get know a manager at McDonald's." ing shoes like that?" enough to support children. Newman die REFORM PARADOXES to various labor laws. Conser- to vative analysts say that com- Few on welfare will be forced to work panies could be forced to pay payroll taxes, making them less likely to offer such "workfare" slots B But the news isn't all bad. R Many experts had predicted P that politicians wouldn't be willing to spend more in the h short term to fund the child d care and transportation needed to keep welfare moms on the job. But states have managed to increase spending per family because the law based federal block grants to states on the larger caseloads of earlier years The result: more money for fewer families. Federal spending per family is up 27 percent since 1995, a wind- fall states are using partly to fund new welfare-related vices. Even if published work re- quirements are often tooth less, experts add, casework- Saul Mercado sweeps a street in the Bronx as part of New York City's welfare-to-work program. ers and welfare recipients are treating them as if they were n the popular view, last sult of the booming economy. do pregnant women nor real. In that sense, the law year's controversial wel- According to a new study those in job readiness" ac may be prodding welfare re- fare reform had three big by the Urban Institute, the tivities (like resume writing) cipients to seek jobs aims: Get people to work, bill's "tough" work mandates These loopholes were pushed The real test, though, will save the government money, will compel fewer than especially by Republican gov come when the next reces- and transform the culture of 200,000 of the 3.3 million ernors, who know that mov- sion hits. While the number poverty. With caseloads adults on welfare to go to ing welfare recipients into of people seeking help will down 10 percent on the bill's work each year. Why? In the jobs is expensive increase, the money provided first anniversary this month ory, the states are supposed Pressure from unions. New by the federal government (23 percent since their 1994 to get a quarter of their case- regulations, meanwhile, may won't. Eventually, too, limits peak), there appears to be a loads working now, and half make it hard for states to run on the number of years that good start. But in reality, ex by 2002. But there are a host real work programs. Bowing people can receive welfare perts say, relatively few wel of exemptions: States whose to pressure from unions, will take effect. Finally, it's fare recipients will be re rolls had been shrinking al which fear competition for unclear whether low-wage quired to work, the ready don't have to push as members jobs, the Clinton jobs will pay enough for wel- government is spending many current recipients into Labor Department ruled in fare mothers to support their more per recipient than ever the work force Teenage May that welfare recipients families. If they don't, wel before, and most of the drop mothers who stay in school who are forced to work for fare reform will likely fail. in the welfare rolls is just a re- don't have to work. Neither their benefits must be subject Matthew Miller 18 U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, AUGUST 18 / AUGUST 25, 1997 U.S. NEWS anda found full-time workers earning about time $8,840, far below the $16,050-per-year poverty line for a family of four. Many her fast-food operations do not offer health Why Bill Gates and insurance (Walker does for full-time em- ployees but not part-timers, who account not for two thirds of his workers). ugh. Newman found that those who came Steve Jobs made up 4.75 from households on welfare had less luck be getting fast-food jobs than those who didn't. There were generally 14 people ap- Both Apple and Microsoft stand to gain, big plying for each job opening in Harlem's JIM restaurants, showing that there's a limit to how many welfare mothers fast-food restaurants can absorb. And while there is some upward mobility for McDonald's workers, there are far fewer management jobs than there are applicants. Gordon Berlin of the Manpower Demonstration Research Corp., which evaluates social programs, says while there is evidence that fast-food or other restaurant jobs help younger people get off welfare, he doubts it will work for "someone who's al- ready 30 years old and is being forced into the work force by welfare reform." And there is still a stigma. Newman found that some other businesses refuse to hire former fast-food workers, dispar- aging their work experience. Embar- rassed workers in Harlem often stripped off their telltale uniforms the minute work was over. Others took jobs outside their neighborhoods so they wouldn't be spotted by friends. "People like to down me like [this job] wasn't anything, like it was a low job," one 20-year-old McDon- ald's employee told Newman. "Horrible and demeaning." Indeed, some argue that it is unfair to force people into Macworld was the setting, Apple chief Steve Jobs the deal maker, Bill Gates the savior. menial jobs. At a town hall meeting in Harlem this year, one woman on welfare BY SUSAN GREGORY THOMAS desktop. Quite possibly, Microsoft also drew applause when she described to gains an ally in its campaign against Sun's President Clinton a friend who had been or Macintosh loyalists, it was at and Oracle's efforts to convert corporate hired as a receptionist and was then given F once a dream come true and a night- users (and ultimately consumers) to janitorial duties. "I've seen the woman mare. There was old friend Steve networked computers based on the pro- clean the toilets, and it's horrible and de- Jobs, again at the helm of the com- gramming language Java rather than on meaning," said the woman, Nilda Roman. pany he cofounded, giving a tough but op- Microsoft Windows. Apple earned re- But Ethel Dent told her friends in Jack- timistic speech about Apple's future at newed industry confidence, Microsoft son something different. She went back to the Macworld trade show in Boston. But software support, and a new board-one her inner-city neighborhood and told her looming above on a gigantic screen was of whose members, Oracle CEO Larry Elli- two closest friends, both welfare mothers, Bill Gates, offering cash and industry son, is sure to resist Microsoft's pressure. that they should try jobs at McDonald's. support to help secure that future. Was Common good. But the markets saw the So far she hasn't convinced them. "They the longtime foe turning savior? deal as good for Apple, too. After the an- say they don't want to flip burgers and As the details emerged, benevolent des- nouncement, Apple's stock rocketed stuff. I say, well, it's your choice." Dent, pot seemed more like it. Gates's an- more than 47 percent to a yearly high of however, is satisfied. "I'm making a little nouncement last Wednesday that Micro- $29.19 last Thursday. The company need- bit more than on welfare. But I'm doing it soft will pay $150 million for a minority ed good news. After losing $816 million myself." And this spring, Dent did have nonvoting stake in Apple this quarter last year, Apple lost $884 million more in success recruiting another welfare mother clearly was in the best interests of his own the first nine months of this fiscal year. who had never worked before. Working company. The deal will permit Microsoft Total sales fell 20 percent in the latest alongside her at the breakfast grill now is to maintain its dominance as the No. 1 quarter over the year-ago quarter and 27 Dent's sister, Cathy. supplier of business software to Apple cus- percent for the latest nine months. tomers and to continue to advance its Web Besides a cash infusion, Apple received With William J. Holstein strategy of pushing its browser onto every an undisclosed sum-which some sources NEWS & WORLD REPORT, AUGUST 18 / AUGUST 25, 1997 19 ted IRS prizers Texas latings filture softure Ismofed And Fre BUSINESS MARKETING Enough Talk Focus groups are old news. Today's marketers prefer Crayolas, collages and surveillance. BY LESLIE KAUFMAN SKED TO REVAMP UNITED A Airlines' ad campaign, the Minneapolis agency Fallon McElligott turned to its secret weapon for probing the con- sumer psyche: crayons. Fre- quent fliers got eight colors and a map showing the different stages in a long-dis- tance airline trip and were told to let their emotions do the drawing-hot colors for stress and anger, cool ones for satisfaction and calm. When the travelers had complet- ed their artwork, ticket counters burned or- ange, airport waiting rooms radiated fire- engine red and-to the surprise of those conducting the exercise-jet cabins at 35,000 feet were awash in a serene aqua. For Fallon exec John Gerzema, it was an epiphany. "Clearly United's slogan 'Some- thing Special in the Air' didn't fully address the concerns of consumers," he says. The research led Gerzema and the airline to a tag line they felt would play to the weary travelers' desire for an overall improve- ment in operations: "United Rising." The gurus of marketing have never ex- actly been scientific in trying to divine our innermost desires-but Crayolas? Yep, You for a day: and while you're at it add collages, home surveillance and "ambushing" to the list of Marketers actually unconventional tools being used these live in your home, days to extract precious insights into the do what you do, go where you go, habits of the American consumer. Focus to gain insights into groups-where half a dozen ordinary folks how you talk about Focus groups are assembled to discuss Brand X while lem-when one highly opinionated person and use categories were. avant-garde observers busily scribble notes behind a of products drowns out the rest of the group. Tom in the 1980s, but Hollerbach, executive vice president for the one-way mirror-may still dominate re- years of experi- search into selling everything from dish ad firm BBDO West, complains that someo ence with them have now taught ad execs these voluble bullies have even become fö soap to politicians, but they are slowly los- their drawbacks. Consumers have been so ing cachet. Explains Jim Spaeth, president cus-group regulars, signing up rep edly bombarded with ads that they unconscious- of the Advertising Research Council, the because they like the idea of dictating ad ly (or, perhaps, cynically) parrot back what race is on to find methods that dig beyond campaigns. For them, he says, "it's like be they've heard in commercials instead of re- what consumers can articulate to what's ing boss of the boss for a day." acting to products spontaneously. Even "deeper in their mind." To dodge such problems, marketers are more troublesome is the "loudmouth" prob- finding ways to make people shut up and 48 NEWSWEEK AUGUST 18, 1997 LEFT TO RIGHT: MICHELE LAURITA, BLAIR JENSEN. HOUSE CALLS INC Fallon's use of crayons is just one with Scope, the company hired House Calls. seat room to the 1998 Accord. BBDOWest Ention on the theme. Jeff DeJoseph of the The Manhattan-based firm paid 37 families sent Tom Donovan, its account executive Walter Thompson ad agency asks sub- to let it set up cameras in their bathrooms in charge of Pioneer Stereo, to Austin, to collect small personal items from and film their routines around the sink. Texas, to drive around with the kind of homes that remind them of the brand Users of both brands said they rinsed with guys Pioneer hopes will buy its car stereos. is testing. Catherine De Thorne of mouthwash to make their breath smell He incorporated their lingo-"My car is bacago-based Leo Burnett encourages good, but they treated the products very dif- my holy temple, my love shack, my donut exple to describe their feelings about ferently. Scopies gave the green stuff a swish maker, my drag racer of doom" - into an ad ducts like sunglasses by cutting pic- and spit it out. Devotees of the new Lister- campaign that has helped catapult Pioneer from magazines and pasting them into ine felt obliged to keep the wash in their ahead of rival Sony. Political consultants a collage. "People are just mouth for a lot longer. One subject went so have also picked up on such "natural envi- far as to hold on to the Listerine after he left ronment" research. When President Clin- home and got into the car. Only when he ton's adviser Mark Penn wanted to test a new message during the 1996 campaign, for example, he of- ten skipped the usual focus groups and instead went straight to shopping malls, where he quizzed voters in a more relaxing setting. Andy Greenfield, presi- dent of Greenfield Consult- ing, takes such methods one step further in something he calls "ambush research." It works like this: a beer com- pany, for instance, wants to test a new product it's launching to compete with upscale microbrews. Greenfield goes to a bar frequented by the target group, male Yuppies 21 to 26, pays the bartender and waitress to play along, se- lects his man (hopefully on a date) and approach- es. Telling the guy that he's researching some- thing totally unrelated to beer-ocean pollution or animal rights-he offers to buy the couple a drink in return for a few min- utes of their time. As arranged beforehand, the waitress brings the brand Greenfield is re- searching instead of the chic beer Mr. Yuppie or- Collaging: 01 dered. Mr. Yup- Instead of talking 09 Home surveillance: pie gets angry, so about a product, For a fee, participants the waitress research subjects are agree to allow mar- apologizes and asked to cut pictures keters to film them in says the beer is from magazines and d person their homes engaging on the house. 'If baste them into a better visually reached a sewer a block away did he expel it. in personal activities, the subject won't ip. Tom collage that repre- than verbally," The message to Warner-Lambert was clear: like their morning take the freebie, t for the sents their feelings she explains. though Listerine needs to seem user-friend- bathroom routine Greenfield starts some of Another fa- ly to take on Scope, it hasn't yet shaken its gathering heat- ome fo- vored method for ferreting out the true mediciney image. of-the-moment information on why he eatedly tastes of consumers comes straight from cul- If marketers can't film you at home, won't even try the new beer. Pretty clever ting ad tural anthropology: observing the natives in sometimes they' just move in with you. tactics, but it's enough to make you think ike be- their natural setting. When Warner-Lam- Both Honda and Toyota have sent staff to twice the next time a stranger serves up a bert wanted to find out what customers live with families and observe how they bit of hospitality. ers are thought of Fresh Burst Listerine, a new use their vehicles-a tactic that Honda With DANIEL McGINN in Detroit and p and mint-flavored product designed to compete says confirmed its decision to add back- JENNIFER TANAKA in Chicago INC. AUGUST 18, 1997 NEWSWEEK 49 Economic Trends BY GENE KORETZ 1986 through early 1996 indicates that the impact is extremely weak. Further, STILL NO GLUT they find that funds investing in growth stocks, which usually lead the pack in OF NEW WHEELS DEBUNKING A market swings, are less sensitive to U.S. auto sales should stay strong price shifts than income funds, suggest- CRASH SCENARIO ing that growth fund investors aren't W ith sales of new cars and other spooked by price volatility. light vehicles averaging close to Could fund outflows sink stocks? What of the big market declines in 15 million units a year in recent years, October, 1987, and October, 1989? In the some experts think the U.S. new car T he stock market vaults ever higher, first, as growth stock prices plunged by market is finally and cash continues to pour into eq- an average 37.7%, net outflows from approaching satu- NOT EVERYONE uity mutual funds. It doesn't take a ge- growth funds hit 4.6% of assets, com- ration and an in- HAS A 'NEW' CAR nius to figure out that these trends may pared with average fund liquidity levels evitable downturn be connected. And therein, notes a of 9.4%. In the second, growth stocks lies ahead. study in the Federal Reserve Bank of fell by 6.2% and growth funds suffered Not analysts at New York's current Economic Policy outflows of just 1.3% of assets. DRI/McGraw Hill, VEHICLES 3 YEARS OLD Review, lies the basis of a recurrent "At least up to now," says: Remolona, who predict sales OR LESS nightmare haunting Wall Street "the evidence suggests that the impact will escalate from For, as authors Eli M. Remolona, of stock-price movements on equity-fund 15.2 million units Paul Kleiman, and Debbie Gruenstein this year to a 15.5 30 flows is not strong enough to sustain a point out, if surging stock prices are downward market spiral." million-unit clip sparking strong mutual-fund inflows that from 1998 through PROJECTED tend to push up prices even more, then 2001. For one 2001 it's possible that a sharp drop in prices THE CLASS OF thing, DRI econo- PERCENT OF TOTAL LIGHT could reverse the process, setting off a mist Ezra Green- VEHICLES ON THE ROAD cascade of redemptions by fund in- vestors that could escalate into a market BOXCUTTER HIGH berg points out DATA: DRI/McGRAW- that relatively new cars (three years crash. To assess the likelihood of such a Violent schools mean fewer grads old or less) currently account for only scenario, the researchers review the his- about 30.3% of vehicles on the road. torical record-and particularly the in- fluence of short-term shifts in stock S tudies of the effect of school charac- That's significantly below the 37% peak teristics on students' educational reached a decade ago (chart). prices on fund flows. progress have traditionally focused on Moreover, notes Greenberg, even in The study comes up with several re- such things as class size, per-pupil ex- the wake of strong sales since 1994, the assuring omens. One is that directly penditures, and teacher education. In a share of such nearly new vehicles has owned stock funds represent only 5.5% new research paper, economist Jeffrey started slipping recently. And despite or SO of household financial assets (an ad- Grogger of the University of California the 15.5 million-unit sales pace that DRI at Los Angeles looks at a factor that sees ahead, it expects the percentage EQUITY FUNDS ARE has received relatively little attention: of vehicles in the three-years-old-or-less school violence. age group to ease down to 29% by 2001. RIDING THE BULL MARKET Using nationwide public high school 250 survey data from the 1980s, Grogger NET INFLOW OF $200 MONEY INTO EQUITY finds that minor levels of violence-a MUTUAL FUNDS problem faced by nearly two-thirds of DOING TIME 150 public school students-lowered the 100 chances of students' graduating from IN THE USA high school by about a percentage point It's in the cards for 5% of Americans 50, to 78% and their chance of going to á 0 four-year college by four percentage '95 W hat are the odds of an American '90 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS points to 27%. And moderate levels of born today winding up in jail ANNUAL RATE BASED ON $111 BILLION THROUGH JUNE violence (faced by 9% of students in the sometime during his or her lifetime? DATA: INVESTMENT COMPANY INSTITUTE, BW sample) reduced the likelihood of high According to a Justice Dept. study ditional 2.4% is held in pension plans, school graduation by about 5 percentage based on 1991 incarceration rates in fed- which tend to take a long view of stock points and of college attendance by 7 eral and state prisons, the answer is market performance). Moreover, ovèr percentage points. The effects of serious about one in twenty or 5.1%. half of equity-fund assets are held in violence were even greater. The risks of jail time are greater for funds charging an up-front sales fee, and It's no secret that school violence can men than for women (9% vs. 1.1%) and such "loads" inhibit short-run selling. impede education in a variety of ways- particularly high for black and Hispanic And since mutual funds still account for by disrupting classrooms, for example, men: 28.5% and 16% vs. 4.4% for white only 14.9% of equity market capitaliza- or causing students who fear attack at men. These odds are undoubtedly un- tion, outflows alone seem unlikely to school to stay at home and risk falling derstated, since the study doesn't- in- CHARTS BY LISA STAPLETON cause a sharp market decline. behind, or interfering with student con- clude the likelihood of being incarcerat- But the key question is whether sud- centration. Grogger's findings underscore ed in a local jail or juvenile facility, and den shifts in market returns significant- the negative impact on students' future the annual rate of admissions to local ly affect fund flows. And here the econ- educational attainment and thus on their jails is nearly 30 times the pace of ad- omists' statistical analysis of data from lifetime earnings potential. missions to state and federal prisons. 24 BUSINESS WEEK / AUGUST 11, 1997 News: Analysis & Commentary HEALTH CARE seeing it as a way to make a fast buck," says Michael F. Mangano, principal deputy inspector general of HHS. GUESS WHO'S While investigators used to focus on small operators, they're now looking at IN THE WAITING ROOM bigger players in all Medicare programs. In addition to the Columbia/HCA probe, SmithKline Beecham Clinical Laborato- The feds widen their crackdown on Medicare overbilling ries Inc., accused of false billings for laboratory tests in a crackdown called T he letter from the Justice Dept. has increased funding for health-care "Labscam," reached a $325 million set- shocked President James W. Var- investigators. And thanks to new tlement with Justice earlier this year. num of Mary Hitchcock Memorial and more sophisticated auditing sys- And last year, the University of Penn- Hospital. Alleging that his Lebanon tems, the probers are finding it easier sylvania agreed to pay $30 million after (N. H.) hospital committed fraud in the to spot unusual billing patterns. Health- being accused of civil fraud by billing way it billed Medicare in the early care probes by the Federal Bureau Medicare for services of teaching doctors 1990s, the feds demanded $1 million in of Investigation, mean- when residents per- their January letter, mostly in civil fraud while, are rising fast- GROWING CLAIMS: The feds formed the work. penalties. Varnum says that the over- to 2,300 in the first half face a mountain of paper The hospital industry payments resulted from alone is under three a mistake-prone billing separate HHS and Justice system. Still, in May, civil-fraud investigations. rather than litigate, he In the largest, enforcers settled with, Justice by are accusing 4,600 hos- paying $100,000. "When- pitals of violating a rule ever there is any error, banning them from the government says it's billing Medicare for out- fraud and abuse," Var- patient services if the num fumes. "It's not patient is admitted for right." the same condition with- Health-care providers in three days. So far, such as Varnum had 2,000 hospitals, including better get used to it. In Varnum's Mary Hitch- the past 10 months, Jus- cock, have paid $47 mil- tice and the Inspector lion, and the government General of the Health & expects to collect $55 Human Services Dept. million more. recouped $1.1 billion Hospitals are irked from Medicare provid- by the probe. "Our folks ers, compared with $250 THE MEDICARE MONEY TRAIL are trying to take care million collected over the HOSPITALS Federal investigators are probing 4,600 hospitals for of people, not trying to previous 12 months. MORE GUMSHOES. That's possible violation of a Medicare rule barring hospitals from submit defraud the govern- ting bills for outpatient services if the patient is admitted for inpa ment," says Richard just the beginning. A tient care within three days. Feds also investigate 33 teaching hos- J. Davidson, president new report by the HHS inspector general gives pitals for billing Medicare for attending physician fees when of the American Hospi- investigators a huge residents perform services tal Assn. But prosecu- tors counter that hospi- new target: an estimat- CLINICAL LABS "Labscam, a multiyear probe, netted $830 mil- tals have long ignored ed $23 billion in lion Abuses included running specimens through equipment that warnings about their Medicare overpay- performs numerous tests simultaneously, then billing Medicare billing procedures. ments-through fraud separately for each test. In February, SmithKline Beecham Clinical "They were put on or error. On July 28, Laboratories settled with the feds for $325 million: notice, and they did not HHS released another correct their systems," audit in which analysts HOME HEALTH CARE Federal investigators estimate 40% of the says Donald K. Stern, estimate that 40% of all $16.9 billion spent on home health care under: Medicare is unnec- the U.S. Attorney for home health-care pay- essary. Medicare places no limits on home health-aide visits, and Massachusetts. ments by Medicare may regulators don't check backgrounds of home-care. agency operators. The feds' next target be unjústified. Two days is managed care. In- later, a federal grand jury unsealed in- of 1997, up from 591 in all of 1992. spectors will look at whether managed- dictments against three Columbia/HCA One huge target is home health care. care providers, which get a flat per- Healthcare Corp. executives as part of Since 1990, annual Medicare payments patient fee, are providing appropriate a sweeping probe of the chain: They're to home-care agencies have quintupled, care. Their advice to health-care accused of filing inflated Medicare to $16.9 billion. Regulators don't check providers of all kinds: Take two as- billings that led to $1.8 million in over- the backgrounds of home-care agency pirin, and expect a house call from fed- payments to one hospital. operators, and Medicare allows unlimit- eral agents in the morning. PORTER Expect more of the same. Congress ed home health-aide visits. "People are By Susan B. Garland in Washington 32 BUSINESS WEEK ! AUGUST 11. 1997 COMMENTA Y By Catherine Yang buck," principal MEMO TO THE FCC: MAKE DEREGULATION WORK focus on oking at T his could be the defining moment that would make it as easy to change for the Federal Communications service providers as it is now in long rograms. Commission-and for the $150 distance. The FCC should also pass A probe, aborato- billion U.S. phone industry it over- regulations to stop the Bells from sees. The White House must name a imposing small inconveniences on for chairman and, over the next few customers who decide to switch ser- called months, fill four vacancies on the vice, such as not letting customers set- his agency's five-member board, just easily take their old phone numbers year. of Penn- when the industry's painful lurch to to a new carrier. after ward opening up competition appears BULLY PULPIT. Meanwhile, the agency billing to be stalling. must exercise its prerogative under doctors As things stand, the FCC is flirting the new reform law to preempt anti- with irrelevance. The agency was AI&T Digital PCS. competitive rules at the state and lo- per- given broad powers to carry out the cal levels. The FCC should overrule a intent of the Telecommunications Act Only from industry of 1996, a measure aimed at opening ART Wirdess Service 1995 Texas law requiring the big three three long-distance companies-AT&T, all phone markets to greater compe- MCI Communications, and Sprint-to Justice tition. Long-distance carriers haven't build their own local-calling facilities ligations. nforcers broken into. local-calling, and the The 1996 act says long-distance com hos- Baby Bells haven't launched long-dis- panies needn't lay their own fiber ca a rule tance service. Instead, the two sides ble and copper wires a costly from snipe in publici and battle it out in proposition. They can choose to lease court. Giants such as Bell Atlantic for WIRELESS: Changing technology and these components at a reasonable out- if the Corp. and Nynex Corp. have decided new products challenge the FCC price from the Bells to get started in for to merge rather than compete with local business. with- one another. And on July 18, a féder- Bells entry into the long-distance Kennard, if confirmed, should use So far, al appeals court stripped the FCC of market until they open up their local his bully pulpit, too. Publicly naming ncluding one important tool: its authority to monopolies to rivals: companies that stymie competition or Hitch- regulate the prices charged by local Taking that kind of action is just threaten to is anteffective way of mil- phone companies for "interconnec what the FCC should now, do.: A use- keeping telecom deregulation on the tions" to their networks ernment ful precedent: holding the Bells to right track. Outgoing FCC Chairman $55 WHOSE RULES? That's why the next the same conditions imposed on July Reed Hundt decried the very idea of chairman; most likely William Ken- $19 in the FCC's approval of the Bell AT&TS merging with SBC Communica irked nard, now the FCC'S general counsel, Atlantic-Nynex.merger There, the tions Inc. instead of trying to com- folks must move very quickly to prevent two companies agreed to refrain pete with the Baby Bell in local ser- deregulation from devolving into a from some of the games monopolists vice. AT&T and SBC scotched the plan care to balkanization of the U. S. telephone play to block new entrants They While Kennard will stay busy system. Under the appeals court rul- also agreed to help local-service-ri- tackling a large agenda it will span govern- Richard ing, each state can fashion its own vals by granting access to phone wireless services, digital television, resident rules to set the speed at which com- company computers so that the up and cable TV-the first order of the Hospi- petition comes to local calling. That starts can easily switch service for day is the phone system He will be could create an inefficient patchwork new customers. judged on his ability to restore the prosecu- of 50 different rules rather than one hospi- The FCC could codify these and promise of the Telecom Act Ameri federal standard. other standards in across the board ignored can consumers are counting on just their The FCC still has ways to pry open rules. It should set up federal stan- that-and should expect nothing less: dures. amarkets across the U.S., despite the dards and deadlines by which the July 18 ruling Under the Telecom Bells would have to provide new ri- Yang covers telecommunications on did not Act, it has the power to deny the vals with electronic ordering systems policy from Washington. stems," Stern, THE FCC'S FULL PLATE for As/chairman, Kennard would face a daunting must-do list. target DEREGULATION The FCC must find the wireless spectrum Auction winners In- creative ways to open up competition in who are facing default are looking for debt anaged- the local exchange market, or face forgiveness per- criticism that the 1996 Telecommunica TELEVISION The FCC will have to deal? ropriate tions Act is failing. with consumer complaints about high WIRELESS The agency has yet. to overhaul cable:bills And will have to write rules two as- KENNARD fed- the botched results of last year stauction of governing the budding digital TV industry (TOP) BY LES STONE/SYGMA shington BUSINESS WEEK / AUGUST 11, 1997 33 Science & Technology DRUG TESTING fail to provide enough evidence to jus- tify approval for such drugs. However, critics charge that regulators set too high a bar for drugs targeted at poorly understood diseases by applying the SHOULD THE FDA same tough standards used for routine medications, such as preferring two LOWER THE THRESHOLD? studies showing the same results. Lou Gehrig's sufferers are caught in the middle. "I want the opportunity to For some drugs, says Cephalon, testing standards are too high see if it would work for me," says Shel- bie M. Oppenheimer, a 30-year-old for- F or Dr. Patricia K. Coyle, the testi- proved its case. "There was no way you mer day-care center director from New mony was wrenching. Speaker could review that data and say un- Hope, Pa., who was diagnosed with Lou after speaker described how para- equivocally that this agent worked," says Gehrig's disease in 1996. "I'm not an lyzing Lou Gehrig's disease had relent- Coyle, a professor at the State Univer- idiot. If it doesn't work, I'm not going to lessly robbed them or their loved ones sity of New York at Stony Brook. The keep taking it." of the ability to walk, feed themselves, vote against the drug was 6-3, with only Precedent may be on her side. The or even hold a pencil. Tearfully, they nonphysicians dissenting. By Aug. 11, FDA has broken with tradition to ap- pleaded in May with Coyle and five oth- the FDA is expected to decide whether to prove some AIDS medicines on the basis er neurologists on a Food & Drug Ad- approve the drug-with the panel's of one trial. They've gone on to become ministration advisory committee to clear thumbs-down weighing heavily. life savers. And the agency eventually the way for approval of a new drug, Whether the panel acted correctly is approved Warner-Lambert's Cognex Myotrophin-a genetically engineered, a matter of heated dispute. Myotrophin medicine for Alzheimer's sufferers, even insulinlike growth factor that might slow is a case study in how well-meaning though three studies showed the drug the disease's advance. regulators and companies with little cap- offered only marginal, if any, improve- But for Coyle and the other panel ital can err when dealing with diseases ments from some of the fatal disease's members, the facts were less persua- for which there is little or no treatment. symptoms. sive. The drug's manufacturer, biotech Startups such as Cephalon may be aim- Five years ago, Myotrophin's future startup Cephalon Inc., simply hadn't ing too low in designing studies that seemed bright. Researchers at Cephalon, DANUTA OTFINOWSKI NEW HOPE? Afflicted with Lou Gehrig's disease, Oppenheimer wants to try an unapproved drug 94 BUSINESS WEEK / AUGUST 11, 1997 cience & Technology to jus based in West Chester, Pa., began re- pany and its partner, Chiron cient data and says the pa- However search in 1992 to see if the drug, which Corp., filed with the FDA for tients testified without com- set too promotes nerve growth, could stymie a approval to sell Myotrophin. pany encouragement. at poorly disease that afflicts up to 30,000 Amer- Baldino told regulators that Now comes the FDA. The olying the icans. Scientifically dubbed amyotrophic Cephalon had spent $180 mil- agency could overrule its ad- or routine lateral sclerosis (ALS), its cause is most- lion on research and would visers and approve the drug, rring two unknown-though its consequences have a tough time justifying a rare move. It could grant ults. clear: irreversible wasting of mus- further investment. "It's al- conditional approval, reserv- caught in les, usually leading to death from res- most impossible for us to idly ing the right to order with- rtunity to piratory failure in less than five years. throw $20 million or $30 mil- drawal if future studies prove says Shel- After initial tests determined the lion at another study," Baldino disappointing. Or it could say ar-old for- drug was safe, Cephalon had to prove told regulators. no-a decision likely to meet from New that it worked. But that was trickier. Instead, Cephalon offered a [We can't] with opposition from congres- with Lou Soon after researchers launched their deal. If regulators let it start sional members pressing for m not an studies-on 266 patients in North Amer- selling the drug-some ana- idly throw approval. Senator Orrin G. going to ica in early 1993, and on 183 Europeans lysts say Myotrophin could $20 million Hatch (R-Utah) wrote to the later that year-they found that any fetch up to $10,000 a year per agency: "There is an occasion side. The improvement was modest. Some had patient-Cephalon would do or $30 million here to provide patients with on to ap- better muscle tone or more ease in further research. It proposed the basis swallowing, for instance, and a measur- combining Myotrophin with at another a drug they need at no risk to public health, and I hope 0 become able slowing of some patients' decline the only approved ALS medi- study. " the FDA will be able to seize ventually was reported. Still, in mid-1995, based cine, Rilutek, SO that doctors that opportunity." Cognex on the North American results, Ceph- could see the drug's useful- FRANK BALDINO Doctors who treat ALS also ers, even alon claimed "highly statistically signifi- ness in the field. Rilutek, a Cephalon Inc. urged a speedy O.K. at the the drug cant effects" with patients showing 26% Rhône-Poulenc Rorer drug ap- hearings. Even the slightest improve- "less deterioration" than those on a proved in December, 1995, extends life benefit is better than nothing, they said, disease's placebo. Chief Executive and company for ALS sufferers by an average of three and the typical two-study demand may founder Frank Baldino Jr. heralded months but offers no improvement in be too high a hurdle. "We're not talking future "good news for a lot of people." physical functions. Backers theorized a false hope. We're talking modest hope," Cephalon, Soon came the bad news. In October, combination of the two drugs could do says California Pacific Medical Center 1995, Cephalon reported that in the Eu- both modestly. neurologist Dr. Deborah F. Gelinas. ropean trial, Myotrophin fell But the advisory HARD LESSONS. Whatever the outcome, short of treatment the case offers drugmakers hard lessons. goals. More disturbing, Lesson one: Large trials, the European death rate was notably higher Rx though costly, may AND AGAINST pay off. "I'm quite on Myotrophin than on CASE FOR MYOTROPHIN.... sure it would have the placebo-14.5% vs. THE been statistically sig- 8.5%. "I wouldn't even nificant if they had conclude that it is a mar- ginal drug," says Dr. Sid Gilman, head of the FDA Myotrophin cle an improved reported to drugs sponsor shoud a not resolve made. FDA the The two times as many patients," says Johns tone Physicians have in the rate Hopkins University advisory committee. "I sus- swallow. measurable slowing medicine if neurologist Dr. Ralph pect that it is ineffective." W. Kuncl. Lesson two: LET'S MAKE A DEAL. Why a deterioration. The effective of even more recently FDA drug-and that : whose pricedest that-whose Pricey that ave barly would becherwise, clearing one a the all with Heed advisory commit- the difference between the tee requests for more might combined the diseasers be with that another extends life for two studies? Cephalon exec- data, even if you believe utives say the European pa- sufferers. been a at you've done enough. tients were sicker than Amer- For regulators, the case ican counterparts. But the FDA raises troubling questions. could not overlook the Euro- Should standards be lower pean results, particularly since for deadly diseases that lack the agency generally wants to see two panel had a narrow treatments? Even now, the studies before it will approve a new charge-to determine whether the Senate is weighing a bill that drug. With one study showing some ef- drug showed "substantial" effectiveness. makes it clear the FDA has the authority fectiveness, however, the regulators Without two convincing trials, it had- to approve drugs based on a single trial. wanted to keep the drug available as n't. What's more, Cephalon's approach And when should compassion override tests continued. So in mid-1996, the ad- irked committee members. "I thought rules? Says University of Pennsylvania visory committee ruled that a limited their presentation was a bit on the slop- bioethicist Arthur Caplan: "It is morally number of patients outside the formal py side," says Coyle. One committee relevant not only what the evidence is, studies could receive the drug until a fi- member charges that "Rather than do- but what the plight is of the people who nal decision is made. However, the com- ing the science the company wanted might be helped." With an admittedly mittee insisted that Cephalon provide to call in the most pitiful cases and use weak treatment and a horrific ailment PHOTOGRAPH BY DAVID FIELDS; GRAPHIC BY ALBERTO MENA/BW convincing new data. the emotional pressure of people with a before it, the FDA now must decide what By last February, though, Cephalon very bad disease." Baldino insists the makes for the smartest medicine. decided it had done enough. The com- company already had presented suffi- By Joseph Weber in Philadelphia BUSINESS WEEK / AUGUST 11, 1997 95 Developments to Watch EDITED BY NEIL GROSS finished object materializes before your eyes, layer by IGH-TECH DESIGNS: layer," says Clinton L. At- MINDING THE BEYOND wood, Sandia's team leader KIDS-ON THE NET PLASTIC MODELS for rapid prototyping. The process eliminates several PARENTS WHO WORRY IN THE MID-1980S, WHIZZES manufacturing steps, he says, about their kids in day in manufacturing melded and the result is "a dense care may soon find reas- computer-aided design (CAD) metal part with excellent surance at the click of a metallurgical properties." mouse. WorldWide Access software with plastic model- ing equipment. The result, Initially, industry may use in Chicago is testing a called stereolithography, lets the technology to create system called KidCam product designers create fin- metal tools or templates for that lets parents with ished physical models from plastic injection molding. But Internet access observe their computer screens. Now, LASER BURN: Metal magic ultimately, factories could their child's day-care engineers at Sandia Nation- employ the same process to room on their PCS-and al Laboratories have gone a molten pool measuring about produce auto parts or to re- even enjoy a scheduled step further, actually manu- thirty-thousandths of an inch pair worn tips on turbine teleconference facturing metal parts direct- in diameter (photo). Metallic blades in aircraft engines. For security reasons, ly from CAD. powder is then sprayed at Sandia is completing a tech- parents at participating Following specifications the focus of the beam while a nology-transfer agreement day-care centers are asked from off-the-shelf design soft- stage moves the substrate with manufacturing giants to register and use mem- ware, a laser burns a pit in a back and forth. As the ma- Eastman Kodak Co., 3M, and bership numbers and metal substrate to create a terial melts and cools, "the others. words. Once that's set up, they log on to the center's Web site remotely and body with electrodes, inserts a needle into navigate to their child's SILENCING SNORERS the palate's soft tissue, and pipes in radio room. If the parent's PC WITH RADIO WAVES waves These agitate ions in the tissue, re has a video camera, a fea sulting in heat that kills the excess cells ture called Kid Chat per- TIRED,OF LISTENING TO YOUR PARTNER During the half hour outpatient proce mits videoconferencing snore? Somnus Medical Technologies in dure, the patient feels a slight warmth Kathleen Vrona, vice Sunnyvale, Calif, has received Food & and, for a few days afterward, a.scratchy president for marketing Drug Administration clearance for atech throat. But in a few weeks time, the body and sales and a co-founder nique that emolds the palates of snorers, flushes out dead cells and the palate re- of WorldWide Access, says removing the excess tissue that obstructs tracts to permit easy breathing. Somnus the system has received breathing and causes all the clatter. says the treatment will cost about $2,500 good reviews in trial cen- The technique, called 'somnoplasty, is an in the U. S. It has enlisted Medtronic Inc. ters such as Rainbow alternative to surgery After applying a lo- of Minneapolis to help export the proce Child Care & Learning cal anesthetic, aidoctor wires the patient dure to Europe and Asia. Stephen Baker Center in Naperville, Ill. In addition, as many com- panies that offer. on-site the University of Pittsburgh's tive only in a liquid environ- day care have discovered, chemical and petroleum en- ment, while most chemical parents who are resting AN ENZYME gineering department. It weapons are not soluble in easy about their children's CAN KNOCK OUT makes use of an enzyme water. well-being tend to be more NERVE GAS called phosphotriesterase that To solve this problem, productive at work, Vrona was discovered by scientists Russell stabilizes the enzyme says Elizabeth Veomett DEACTIVATING THE 200,000 at Texas A&M University. De- in foam, which is then suf- tons of chemical weapons scribed by Russell as "one of fused with the noxious chem- currently stored at muni- the most efficient enzyme cat- icals. In its sponge form, the Birthday. tions sites worldwide is a alysts ever discovered for any enzyme can be stored for daunting task. But research- reaction," the enzyme breaks months at room temperature, ers at the University of oxygen-to-phosphorous bonds he says. The German De- Pittsburgh have a promising in dangerous chemicals, leav- fense Ministry is considering technique that uses a long- ing harmless byproducts that testing the enzyme in the lasting, easily storable en- can be safely burned. A drop decontamination of real zyme stabilized in polyure- of the enzyme will cause one chemical weapons. And the thane foam. ton of nerve gas to biode- U.S. Army may use the The method was developed grade within a year, he says. technology in protective ON VIDEO: KidCam kids by Alan Russell, director of Unfortunately, though, it's ac- suits. Johanna Knapschaefer FOR FURTHER INFORMATION: Go to Business Week Online at America Online or E-mail [email protected] BUSINESS WEEK / AUGUST 11, 1997 97 become even more empty and self- contradictory than usual. García Már- quez's most recent stunt was to depart for self-imposed exile from Colombia once again. proclaiming that he could Hostility In America no longer abide the corrupt rule of President Ernesto Samper, a man whom he had previously defended from gringo BY JAMES Q. WILSON charges of narco-democracy. His refuge? That great drug-free zone. Mexico. (It is just a matter of time before we hear Crime Is Not the Problem: about his intense friendship with, and Lethal Violence in America the Herculean work habits of, Cuauh- témoc Cárdenas.) by Franklin E. Zimring and Gordon Hawkins arcía Márquez's advice to (Oxford University Press, 259 pp., $35) G young journalists is very, ne of the more frustrating O lem, and that the main goal of public very strange. At his semi- difficulties facing students policy ought to be to reduce violence. nar in Cartagena last year, of crime is our inability to To do that, we must first understand a dozen of Latin America's most promis- compare crime rates across why our rate of violence is so much high. ing reporters heard him declare that countries. Interpol gathers crime data er than in England, Australia, France or "journalism is not a job, it's a gland." from national police agencies, but it does Germany. The answer given by Zimring Picking up the morning Cartagena so in a way that make its reports next to and Hawkins is that we kill each other paper, he turned to the classified ads. worthless. The agency fails to assess the more often (and engage in property A woman was selling her brand-new quality of the accounts that it receives, crimes, such as robbery, that often have stove, still in pieces. "Why is the stove and it presents them in a way bound to fatal outcomes) in large part because unassembled? García Márquez won- cause confusion. Thus, not long ago, Americans are more heavily armed than dered. "This could be a story. Should someone published an op-ed essay in are other societies. Opponents of gun we call?" No one at the table knew quite which the author claimed that the control will reflexively object to this con- what to say. Netherlands had a higher murder rate clusion, but, if they are to prevail, they But if that non-story qualifies for Gar- than did the United States. That is, to will have tough going against the argu- cía Márquez's front page, his own part- put it mildly, an implausible idea. In his ments made here. Using data from the nership with Castro is not necessarily defense, however, he displayed the Inter- World Health Organization, a group the news. "This is not an interview," he pol report. At first glance, the document that counts dead bodies instead of mere- barked when a member of the seminar seemed to confirm his view, until one ly repeating police reports, and gather- broached the subject. "If I want to ex- noticed that every homicide reported ing facts from big-city police depart- press my opinion on Fidel, I'll write it for the United States was completed- ments abroad; Zimring and Hawkins myself, and believe me, I'll do a better that is, there was a dead body-but the show that American cities are not very job." (Besides, this professor of jour- homicides reported for the Nether- different from foreign ones of similar nalistic ethics charges up to -$10,000 lands included both completed and size with respect to theft or burglary, but for an interview, using the proceeds to attempted (no dead body) homicides. they are vastly higher with respect to rob- finance his film institute in Havana.) The attempts, of course, far outnum- bery and homicide. New York City has "Fidel is one of the people I love most in bered the actual murders, and there was less theft and burglary than London but the world," he explained. "A dictator," no explanation of how the Netherlands vastly more robberies and homicides. someone muttered. The writer shot decided which actions were attempted The same difference exists between Syd- back: "To have elections is not the only murders and which were just everyday, ney, Australia, and Los Angeles. way to be democratic." But a Venezuelan assaults. We do not know very much, in Robbery involves the threat of vio- member of the seminar persisted: "No short, about how the characteristics of lence; burglary need not involve vio- one has elected you to office. You don't nations or their various criminal justice lence, though violence may occur if the have a public office, why do you act as policies affect crime rates. dwelling is occupied when the burglar Fidel Castro's honorary chancellor?" Franklin Zimring and Gordon Haw- enters. In neither crime is death likely. "I will not respond to a question asked kins, two members of the Earl Warren But thefts in American cities are more in bad faith," García Márquez huffed. "I Legal Institute at the University of Cali- likely to lead to death than are thefts in do it because he is my friend, and I fornia at Berkeley, have plunged into other nations. In 1992, there were seven believe one must do everything for one's this thicket, fully aware of the snags that deaths in London' resulting from a bur- friends. I am always running errands for it contains, to sort out how American glary or robbery; in New York City, there my friends." crime rates differ from those of compa- were 378, even though New York has Only a few months after this remark- rably industrialized nations. No one will fewer such crimes than does London. able exchange, the author of News of a be surprised to learn that the United American property crimes. are much Kidnapping stood before the Inter-Ameri- States has a far higher rate of violent more deadly than English ones, in large can Press Association and denounced crime, especially homicide, than West- measure because our thieves are armed. "bad journalists [who] cherish their ern Europe or Australia. But some may And much the same story can be told source as their own life, especially. if it is be astonished to learn that the rate of about assault. When one Londoner an official source, and endow it with a property crime here is similar to the attacks another, death occurs in less than mythical quality, protect it, nurture it, rate of property crime elsewhere, and in one-half of 1 percent of the cases, but and ultimately develop a dangerous com- many cases it is much lower. Zimring and when one New Yorker attacks another, plicity with it. The errand-runner Hawkins conclude that what is often death is the result in over 3 percent of lacks a sense of irony. He also lacks a described as the American "crime prob- the cases. The reason in part is that sense of decency. lem" is in reality a lethal violence prob- firearms are used in 26 percent of all 38 THE NEW REPUBLIC AUGUST 25, 1997 assaults but in only l' percent as in Los Angeles, and yet those places ure to enforce the law when blacks, London. differ dramatically in lethal behavior. harmed other blacks. Oddly, Zimring When all cities are exposed to the same and Hawkins write as if the explanation fill. the use of guns is not the media, it is hard to see how the media is either unimportant or obvious: It is, in S whole story. If one looks can explain differences in violence. No fact, neither. If African American mur- at robberies in which doubt there are copy-cat killers, but their der rates were the same as white murder gun was involved, the numbers are too small to explain why rates, the national murder rate would New York City is still three people in Tokyo almost never kill and drop substantially. The effect of lowering high as it is in London. Even those in Atlanta often do. the black murder rate to equal the white niet cases. guns are not essential: Violence also accompanies drug deal- one would not make America as safe as . acnt of all American homicides ing, but the proportion of murders that other industrialized nations, but it prob- involve a gun. This means that are connected to the drug trade is too ably would have at least as big an effect torkers without a gun kill one an- small to make much of a difference. The as banning the existence of all hand- more often than do Londoners best estimates are that no more than 10 guns. Non-gun homicides in New York armed. Obviously something percent of all killings are connected to than weaponry makes New York the drug trade, though from time to of environment than Lon- public time the percentage is much higher in a violence. few cities. Moreover, the laws on drug- understand are not the whole story, we dealing are about as tough in Australia Facing Prostate much high. extraordinary differences among as they are here, but drug-connected France in how frequently people are deaths are about sixty times-more com- Cancer? 3 by Zimring Maine and North Dakota have the mon in Los Angeles than in Sydney. In homicide rates in the country, less the United States, drug dealing on a in property one-tenth of the rates in Louisiana large scale has probably created an often have Mississippi, but the reason cannot array of armed gangs that make violent because that no one in Maine or North encounters, and thus lethal ones, more Theragenics Cancer than owns a gun. Rural states are likely. But why? That is like asking why Information Center, of gun liably armed to the teeth, as anyone the vast majority of drug users are in to this con. has visited them during deer this country even though almost every 1-800-458-4372 they cason. The answer must be that country has similar laws. the argu- encounters in rural states are from the law-abiding and less productive of here is another contribut- a group ersonal violence. North Dakota not of T ing factor that the authors GOVERNMENT FORECLOSED mere- has the second-lowest murder rate, confront, but not, I think, HOMES FROM gather- has the second-lowest property crime quite adequately. They ask pennies on $1. Delinquent depart- whether the very high rate of violence Repo's, REO's. Your Area. Hawkins Zimring and Hawkins suggest that among African Americans explains the not Call Toll Free: 1-800-218-9000 very many American communities are more American homicide rate. There is no of similar Ext. H-4377 for current listings imgerous not only because guns are denying the core facts. Blacks are five bui more vailable, but also because per- times as likely to kill as are whites; black to rob- onflicts are more frequent and males are six times as likely to kill as are City The ancient realists were Epicureans, has more violent. In their words, firearms white males. Homicide is the leading and they were regarded as dangerous to but "neither a necessary nor a sufficient cause of death among young. black civilization by Roman leaders, who micides. ause of violent death," but they are a males, but it is the tenth cause for Ameri- favored the idealistic philosophies of Syd- ontributing factor. If two men meet in a cans as a whole. Zimring and Hawkins do Platonism, Aristotelianism, and Stoicism. bar or on a street corner and have an not have much to say about why this is Epicureans denied Providence, viewed of vio- argument, the result of that quarrel will true, except to argue that it is probably man as an evolved animal, saw virtues vio- depend heavily on what weapons might because African Americans live dispro- and laws as manmade, avoided if the be available with which to manage any involvement with government, spurned portionately in urban "slum neighbor- burglar communism, and welcomed women and escalating violence. If there are only fists, hoods" and because less violent middle- likely. slaves as fellows. Jews abhorred onl a fist fight can ensue; if there are class blacks live in "racial zones" that put Epicureans. Nevertheless, evidence exists more 2011. there may be a fatal shootout. them in close proximity to poor blacks. that Jesus based his teaching. on in Many years ago Zimring published arti- This is not much of an explanation. Epicureanism, only changing its theory of seven des suggesting that murder was often Just limiting ourselves to big-city resi- how immortal gods are made into a a bur- the consequence of an ambiguously dents reduces the black-white difference theory of how immortal human beings there motivated assault: at the outset, nobody in homicide from eight times nationally are made. This evidence is in the recently has intended the death of the other, but, as to only (only!) four times at the big-city discovered Gospel of Thomas, a collection the fight progressed and a gun was at level. Moreover, other equally poor and of 113 sayings of Jesus which radically much hand, death was the result. To reduce differ from the Bible's. They are demon- geographically isolated urban groups large strably notes taken while Jesus taught, for deaths one must either reduce the likeli- have much lower crime rates. Koreans, they match chronologically the vestiges of hood of fights or disarm the fighters. Vietnamese and Chinese are often poor, history that underly the Markan myth: told In their new book, Zimring and and recent arrivals, and many of them They reveal the historical Jesus and his wkins largely reject other popular live in similar "racial zones," but they kill recurring use of Epicurean tenets. than explanations for violence. They have lit- at a far lower fate than do African Amer- You Will Not Taste Death but de use for studies of the impact of the icans. JESUS AND EPICUREANISM media, and I think that their rebuttals Now, explaining these differences is of are essentially correct. Violence in the not easy. I am not certain what it is, but I by Jack Hannah, 321pp.pbk. $12 postpaid. that Frank Publishing, 1816 Springmill Road, media is everwhere. in London as expect that it has much to do with the Mansfield, OH 44903-8907 all much as in New York. in Sydney as inuch legacy of slavery. lynching and past fail- on the great increase in juvenile B y this point the homicide rates that took place Four Corners, Vermont between 1985 and 1992. Young expects that Zimring and people, white and black, were be- Hawkins will offer some October sun, blue sky coming much more lethal in the remedies for murder. Ch. late 1980s, probably owing to en their analysis, there are only two burning the fields sienna, the spread of gangs, their in- such remedies: reduce the availability of even the governor upstate volvement in drug trafficking, guns or lower the frequency of hostile raking a lawn, his kingdom of this world. That afternoon and easier access to guns. The encounters. But they suggest neither. on Main Street, at the four increase was greater for blacks. Though they devote two long chap. ters to "Prevention," reading them re- corners, the cop was trying In the last few years, that rate minds me of watching Mike Hargrove to push a small bat with has declined a bit, and this prob- getting ready to bat. He comes to the the butt of his pistol from ably helps to explain why the plate. He stretches his shirt, tugs at his the window-box by the door homicide rate generally in the glove, pulls at his pants, shifts his cap. of the Putnam Hotel, an country has experienced so adjusts his grip. He gets in place. Then unused window-box sharp a dip. he backs out and does this all over again. where the bat, mistaken, caught But this dip may prove to be To watch Hargrove at bat was like killing by daylight, had fluttered down short-lived. Census figures show time during a rain delay. Will this ever like a fallen leaf. Three that there will be an increase in end? townsmen, not doing much the proportion of young people In this book, no. Zimring and Haw. but holding their own, keeping on the streets in the next few kins write that a "book of this kind would up on the news, kept watch. years, and there is no reason yet be a terrible place. to posit a detailed and The policeman laughed, tucking to suppose that those who now comprehensive program of loss preven- his pistol back in its lead a life of no fathers, gangs tion from violence A terrible place? holster. The teenage bellhop for friends and easy dollars in Franklin Zimring has devoted much of so far with nothing to do the drug trade have decided the last thirty years of his professional has pitched the bat out now. to abandon that life. Rescuing career to studying the impact of guns on It quavers to the walk young people from those condi- violence, and he still has nothing to say by the rail of the hotel stairs. tions, a frightfully difficult and about what we should do? If not now, The bellhop and a man expensive proposition, may be as when? wearing a jack shirt, worn effective as figuring out a way Of course, he does have a few things and too small for his arms, (none now exists) to deny them to say, but mostly by way of criticiz- stomp it, grinding their heels access to the knives and guns ing other people's ideas. Zimring and between the palings. The boy with which they can kill others. Hawkins dislike many of our prison poli- runs back inside. It is Zimring and Hawkins neglect cies because they think that, under the Norman Rockwell-ish, this almost all of these issues in their impact of those policies, we send too tableau the passers-by desire to reassure us that there is many nonviolent offenders to prison. are watching. Soon the boy no "black problem" in crime. They argue that, in California, the is back and kneeling with I'm sorry, but there is. It is cer- "three strikes" law has had no connec- a fork. The leaves have fallen tainly not the whole problem, tion to the recent reduction in the rate but the day is warm; even and solving it would certainly of violent crime, but they leave the the governor tidies his lawn. not solve America's violence explanation of this controversial judg- The boy will jab at the black problem; Zimring and Hawkins ment to a document that they do not remnant, the tines will ring are right to point out that equal- bother to summarize. (You will have to out, hitting the pavement izing racial differences in mur- look it up. But I warn you, it will be a again; again. Everyone der, desirable as that may be, waste of your time.) They attack people in the land must know his place, would still leave America's homi- who support various popular anti-crime any beast cide rate at least twice as high programs for making absurd predictions of the field his lair, his own. as the rate in other major indus- and failing to evaluate the results. trialized nations. An all-white They are probably right about this. STEPHEN SANDY America would be much more But what programs do they favor, and lethal than Italy, Canada, France, how should we evaluate them? They Germany and England, and speculate about regulating handguns, vastly more lethal than Japan. but they offer no idea as to how it might City are three times as common as all But that is not the end of the story. It is be done better. They ruminate about homicides in London, a number that is impossible to deny that very high rates violent encounters, but they suggest no only a bit smaller than the difference in of violence among African Americans way to reduce their frequency except to white-only homicide rates between the (rates that may have been coming down suggest that victims be "as cooperative as two countries. of late among black adults) not only con- possible" if they are threatened by a rob- In fact, Arnold Barnett of MIT has tribute mightily to the problem of life in ber. They note that some people are try- made some calculations that suggest that our cities, they also disfigure and polar- ing to teach violence avoidance in the the homicide rate of adult black males ize any effort to deal with our most seri- schools, but they conclude that there are has in fact been coming down much ous domestic problem. The authors at "insufficient data to form a judgment' as faster than the white homicide rate. No least acknowledge this effect. As long as to whether these plans work. one is quite certain why this has oc- black violence is at so high a level, they Perhaps Zimring and Hawkins are curred, though certain possible explana- observe, it will reinforce "white fear in vague because they do not have any tions-social progress, residential relo- ways that palpably contribute to the good ideas. That is not an embarrassing cation-are obvious enough. We tend to exclusion of blacks from the social main- predicament. Very few people have good forget these trends and to dwell instead stream." ideas about this subject, and for good 40 THE NEW REPUBLIC AUGUST 25, 1997 Eric Monkkonen, after years of afford to say that, while it is having its PROTECT YOUR COPIES OF in historical records, has own trouble protecting people against that the homicide rate crime, it wants to deprive these 65,000, NEW REPUBLIC offer lillin factor of at least five for the City has exceeded that of people of the means to protect them- These custom- f selves. Under such conditions, you don't made titled cases / hundred years. Similarly, Roger need the National Rifle Association to are ideal to protect shown that in the early defeat a government effort to disarm your valuable- of / has Philadelphia had a Americans. copies of The New lung I comicide rate. Big-city Americans There are more desirable and less Republic from dam- T ! each other at a far higher controversial forms of gun control. The age. They're designed Haripum were Londoners long before most important is to reduce the chances to hold a year's issues of radio and television, that a person will carry concealed on his (may vary with issue sizes), constructed 3 1 # the introduction of person an unlicensed weapon while he with reinforced board, and covered with his be weapons (and automatic walks about town. With a bit of new tech- durable leather-like material in flag blue. place. ! the sale of any drugs (other nology that is now being developed, it Title is hot-stamped in silver and cases are Table over It is very hard, I think, to may become much easier for the police V-notched for easy access. 1-$8.95 3-$24.95 6-$45.95 III easy way to reduce a homicide to spot and to question such gun carri- that has been so high for so long. ers. Doing this may reduce the rate at ? The New Republic of American encounters is which guns will cause angry encounters Jesse Jones Industries, Dept. 95TNR and 160 as important as the presence of to escalate into lethal violence. 499 East Erie Ave., Philadelphia, PA 19134 kind PERSON guns. If New York City can We also might wonder a bit about the and non-gun homicide rate that is magnitude of our penalties for homicide. Enclosed is $ for cases. Add loss prevent larger than the total homi- They are about the same here as in $1.50 per case for postage and handling. places in London, then removing all Europe-that is to say, they are short in Outside USA $3.50 per case (US funds only). PA residents add 7% sales tax. much the United States (which is both places. Nationally, the median professional would still leave us in a trou- homicide inmate is released from prison Please Print of guns in condition. after only about six years, while in Cali- Name to fornia the release comes after about Address If 5 not uppose we take Zimring's three-and-a-half years. Even many offend- (No P.O. Box Numbers Please) now, few S City State Zip and Hawkins's analysis of ers sentenced to prison "for life" spend of things the problem as correct, and much less time there. Some inmates, of CHARGE ORDERS (Minimum $15): AmEx, Visa, criticis then try to imagine what course, spend a lot of time in prison. But MC, DC accepted. Send card name, #, Exp. date. and be done. We must begin with the the small number of years the median Call Toll Free 7 days, 24 hrs, 1-800-825-6690 poll that the private ownership of guns (and the average) offender serves sug- Allow 4-6 weeks for delivery under the ano be substantially reduced. There gests the low price that we generally place send too no point-of-sale restrictions that will on the average victim's life. These sen- to prison. duce this huge stock by very much. tences should be made longer. the Moreover, point-of-sale restrictions over- And much remains to be done, finally, connec- ok the fact that most guns used in to lead children away from a life on the the rate times are stolen or borrowed. And no leave street. We are still trying to learn how the owernment can do very much when peo- best to do this, but a growing body of evi- judg. do de believe, with some empirical support, dence suggests that early intervention in not have that having a gun makes you safer. the lives of very young, at-risk children to Using the data compiled by the Na- and their mothers (often there is no will be a tonal Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) father) can make a lasting difference. It people 55.000 families, scholars have esti- will' take another generation to learn MOVING? iti-crime dictions mare d that there are, at a minimum, be- whether these plausible guesses will bear Don't forget to let US know so you won't sween 65,000 and 80,000 defensive gun lasting results for large number of chil- miss a single issue of THE NEW REPUBLIC. this. uses per year. Some estimates based on dren, but the nation's perpetually high Just attach your old address label in the private polls suggest much higher defen- homicide rate suggests that it might be or, and first space provided and write your new sive uses, ranging up to 1.5 or even 2.5 time well spent. They address in the second space reserved below. million. The data supplied by private Above all, we will have to learn to dguns, polls are controversial, since so much think about our crime problem histori- Old Address (Affix label from this issue.) might about depends on inferring society-wide effects cally. It took England several centuries Name from the answers of a tiny number of of tough rule, brutal punishment and no respondents. (If, to take a recent study, the inculcation of class-based values to Address to 54 people out of 2,500 surveyed said achieve a low homicide rate. America has tive as Say used a gun to defend themselves, spent less time at the task, and it has City State Zip rob- then each of the 54 represents 68,000 sought to inculcate different values. As New Address try- Americans. Reporting errors-lies, exag- someone once said, the low murder rate the Name gerations, poor memory-on the part of in England is produced the same way you are just a few people can have huge effects produce good lawns: plant good seed Address as on the total number of defensive gun and then roll it for three hundred years. uses.) So consider instead the much City State Zimring and Hawkins offer some sensi- Zip are larger and more reliable NCVS, con- ble data on violent crime rates, but they any Mail to: ducted by the Census Bureau, according plant no seeds and they roll no lawns. THE NEW REPUBLIC to which defensive gun uses in America PO Box 37298 od are not trivial: 65,000 to 80,000 uses each od JAMES Q. WILSON is the author most re- Boone, IA 50037-0298 year. No democratic government can cently of Moral Judgment (Basic Books). Allow 4-6 weeks for change of address to go into effect. AUGUST 25, 1997 THE NEW REPUBLIC 41 UNITED STATES Los Angeles, 26% more than in 1990. farming and light industry means that (un- necessary to wait even that long. These The revival of Los Angeles is part of a like New York, for example) the state has laws, say the critics, further erode the idea bigger story-California's apparent success jobs for less-skilled workers. To be sure, ab- of marriage as a commitment for life. Now in eliminating, at long last, the things that sorbing the 700,000 people likely to be Louisiana is trying to check the erosion. have been holding back its recovery. Aero- thrown on to the labour market by welfare On August 15th, a law creating "cove- space manufacturing, which shed about reform will be difficult. But the expanding nant marriages", passed overwhelmingly 200,000 jobs in 1990-95, is starting to re- San Diego economy, which now provides by the state's legislature, goes into effect. A vive. Employment in navigation instru- sophisticated services for industry over the "covenant marriage" is an optional form of ments increased by 8% in the year ending border in Mexico, combined with LA'S re- marriage which is harder to enter and in March, and in the missile and space sec- covery, means that the Bay Area is no longer harder to leave than the usual late-1990s tors by 2.7%. Tom Lieser, of the University of the only job-generator in the state. Mr sort. It requires pre-marital counselling, California in Los Angeles, predicts that the Lieser predicts that California will add an- and it allows divorce only under one of a growth in this sector will continue until the other 1.2m jobs before the end of the cen- number of fairly tight conditions: aban- turn of the century. The financial services tury, many of them highly paid. donment, two years' separation, adultery, and telecommunications sectors, both rav- There are problems to come, no doubt. physical or sexual abuse, or if a spouse gets aged by mergers and downsizing over the Silicon Valley has severe shortages of space sentenced in court to hard labour or death. past decade, are also beginning to add jobs. and talent. Anti-growth activists are begin- The law is a rare legislative triumph for With growth spreading throughout the ning to flex their muscles, particularly in religious conservatives, argues Represen- state, the property market has turned the Bay Area. An expanding population is tative Tony Perkins, the law's chief author. around. Non-residential spending in- putting strains on an already fragile school These people, he says, spend too much of creased by 17.5% in 1996, to $9.6 billion, system. But, all in all, California is beaming their time opposing things-abortion, and by a further 28.2% in the first six down on the rest of the country again. same-sex marriages, subsidies for what they months of 1997. A study by California's consider immoral works of art. The concept real-estate research councils shows that, be- of covenant marriage gives them an oppor- tween April 1996 and April 1997, the aver- Strengthening marriage tunity to put their weight behind some- age price of existing houses increased in 13 thing constructive. out of 20 counties surveyed, the first time Do you mean it? For many Louisiana clergymen, this is increases had predominated since 1990. A excellent news. When the Reverend John year earlier only four of the 20 counties re- Lancaster performs weddings at the First NEW ORLEANS corded increases, with the rest continuing a Baptist Church of Kenner, he often won- long string of declines. AN EXPERIMENT begins next week in ders how long the unions will last. Now he The biggest increases are in the Bay Louisiana that may interest quite a lot will require any couple who want him to Area; Santa Clara County leads the way, of other Americans. Almost half of all escort them into wedlock to accept a cove- with a 12% increase in the year to April. But American marriages now end in divorce, nant marriage. "Those few extra steps may even in Los Angeles, where house prices even though many of them begin with a save a lot of marriages, help a lot of kids, had fallen by a quarter since 1990, they promise by the two partners to hold to- and that's worth it." The new law has also have now begun to rise. Howard Roth, of gether "until death do us part". This is, of given Louisiana the unusual experience of Bank of America, thinks the turnaround in course, partly the result of a radical change looking, for once, like a moral guidepost. It the housing market will add the last miss- of sexual mores in the West. But many has brought many inquiries from other ing piece to the Californian recovery, boost- Americans say the figures would not be so states, some of which may now introduce ing consumer confidence, spurring spend- bad were it not for the spread of "no-fault" similar legislation of their own. ing on cars, furniture and consumer divorce laws. In Louisiana, a couple can le- But other local clergymen, and not a electronics, and stimulating house build- gally split after six months' separation, with few marriage-guidance counsellors, fear ing, which remains at less than half the av- no questions asked; in some states, it is not the law may work in ways its originators erage rate of the 1980s. did not intend. John Shalett, programme director at a counselling agency, Family The lessons learned Service of Greater New Orleans, thinks it The recovery goes on, and reaches so wide, could be used as a way of learning how to because California made itself use the mis- bring your marriage to an end. Want a di- erable years of recession to reorganise its vorce without waiting through two years of economy. The state weaned itself off its de- separation? Just have an affair, or thump pendence on military expenditure and re- your spouse. "It could possibly force one or directed its energies into a myriad of civil- the other of the couple into destructive be- ian activities. Growth in a wide range of haviour they otherwise might have never industries-with computers, films, biotech- thought about," he says. nology and multimedia in the lead- Nor does the new law take into account means that California now has 460,000 every kind of destructive behaviour, com- more jobs than it had before the recession plains Geraldine Levy, who looks after bat- began, many of them high-paying. (The av- tered women at the New Orleans YWCA. erage annual salary in those four industries There is more to domestic violence than is more than $60,000.) The state has also di- physical battery; you can damage your minished its dependence on big- compa- partner by the language you use, or by the nies. More than half (407,000) of the way you exploit an exchange of emotions. 736,000 businesses identified by the Cen- Yet, in a covenant marriage, neither is a sus Bureau in California have seven em- ground for immediate divorce. ployees apiece or fewer. Despite these criticisms, many people The result is the most balanced econ- in Louisiana believe that when the law omy in California's history. The success of Until hard labour do us part takes effect covenant marriages will be a 20 THE ECONOMIST AUGUST 9TH 1997 UNITED STATES The lady who shamed Marion Barry and is therefore tax-exempt) and the need to provide health and prison services that for other cities would be underwritten by WASHINGTON, DC a state or county. Most people blame the demonstrators, a false bomb armed robbery, rape-this city is either mayor, a master of the political machine, a handful of arrests: Washing- worst or near-worst in the nation. The who won successive elections in 1978, ton's political theatre, after months of streets have potholes worthy of tropical 1982 and 1986 and was re-elected in 1994 numbing budget-balancing, is suddenly Africa; the water supply (it had to be taken despite a spell in prison after being vivid, loud and local. out of the city council's direct control a filmed in 1990 smoking crack cocaine. At issue is what Mayor Marion Barry year ago) was once officially considered Fortunately, there is one local actor calls "the rape of democracy"-the deci- dangerous to HIV-carriers and others with with a blameless reputation: Eleanor sion by Congress and the president to res- low immune systems. The city's popula- Holmes Norton, for the past seven years cue the nation's capital from impending tion has slumped by a tenth since 1990. the District's non-voting delegate to Con- bankruptcy and self-inflicted adminis- The mayor has consistently blamed gress. At least some of the rescue package's trative chaos while stripping its elected the "federal burden" (some 40% of the generosity-the federal assumption of the officials of most of their powers for at city's property-is owned by the govern- city's prison costs and its $5 billion pen- least the next four years. The first step ment and by non-profit organisations sion liability, cuts in its Medicaid con- (hence the demonstrations tributions, tax breaks for home- about the loss of "home rule") buyers and investors-is due to came on August 5th. Hours after Mrs Norton's tireless advocacy President Clinton had signed to a sceptical Congress. his new powers into law, An- Such are the obsessions of drew Brimmer, chairman of the local activists that they accuse District of Columbia financial Mrs Norton of "selling out" the control board and the city's home rule-the right to elect a new de facto dictator, an- mayor and council-that Wash- nounced the replacement of ington achieved only in 1974. four department heads. Mr Her reply is that she got the best Barry had not witnessed the deal possible from a Congress Clinton signature: "It's like go- that might otherwise have ap- ing to watch your own death." pointed a city manager (shades Metaphorically at least, a lot of the colonial commissioner) of Washingtonians would wel- and taken away all the func- come that death. By almost any tions of the mayor and his yardstick of urban horror-in- council. She is too polite to add fant mortality, AIDS, drug ad- that the real betrayer of home diction, single-parent families, Mrs Norton should be gesturing at him rule is the mayor himself. popular choice among young couples. heading for a favoured spot on the Willam- managed city in the country, in Portland it- What bride and groom do not think their ette river, in the heart of the city. "That", self a severe case of self-doubt is setting in. love will last forever? Yes, passions fade, says Mr Seltzer, "is what we're trying to pro- At the heart of the debate is the region's Ur- dreary reality forces itself upon the scene. tect-the image of a guy going fishing while ban Growth Boundary, its UGB. Mr Shalett says that most people do not people in suits sit here eating lunch." Since 1979, the UGB has drawn firm truly know who they are, or what they want Mr Seltzer is an urban-planning aca- lines around Portland and nearby towns from life, until they have reached their thir- demic whose subject is Portland. He could such as Beaverton, Gresham and Oregon ties. He worries that the law may lengthen hardly ask for a better one. In the past 20 City. Those lines, once generous-looking, the duration of marriages at the cost of years Portland has evolved from a snoozy feel throttling now. Since they were drawn, making many of them emotionally bar- riverside town best known for its wet win- some 700,000 people have moved into the ren-which is good neither for the married ters and nine bridges over the Willamette region, attracted by Portland's benign cli- pair nor for their children. Well, Louisiana into the nation's darling of urban correct- mate and the nearby mountains and now has a chance to find out whether the ness. Its strict planning, which sets tight beaches, not to mention the thousands of optimists or the pessimists are right. limits on freeways and building sprawl in jobs offered by high-tech companies in a favour of green belts, high-density housing booming "Silicon Forest" that has seen the and mass-transit systems, draws admirers region switch from a logs-and-farming City planning from as far away as Botswana and South economy to one driven by brains and mi- Paradise dimmed Korea. Its compact downtown area is crochips. Another 700,000 newcomers are praised for its lively shopping projects and expected in the next two decades. attention to pedestrians. And a 20-minute The population explosion is straining drive from the city centre lands you in a the UGB, since just about every available PORTLAND, OREGON still-rural landscape of farms, hazelnut or- acre of land within it has now been devel- B AGUETTE sandwich in hand, Ethan chards and vineyards. Portland, it seems, oped for housing, offices or the retail trade. Seltzer pauses in mid-bite to watch a has faced the bugbears of the 20th-century The lack of land hits the housing market young man with a fishing rod saunter by a American city-congestion, urban decay, hardest. Ernie Platt, a vice-president of a street-side café. Nothing unusual in that, sprawl-and defeated them. home-construction firm, recalls the devices perhaps. But this is downtown Portland, Or has it? Although many Americans he used-including the assignation of a Oregon, and the prospective fisherman is think of Portland as the best-planned, best- dummy buyer, in the hope that his manner THE ECONOMIST AUGUST 9TH 1997 21 RETIREMENT GUIDE / PLANNING THEY'RE OUT TO STEAL YOUR MONEY Today's con artist is more sophisticated than ever, employing every trick from phantom securities to the Internet to crack into your retirement nest egg. By Erick Schonfeld NVESTMENT SCAMS come in all stripes and his deal in 32 seconds over a cup of coffee at Penn sizes. The phony sweepstakes promising free trips to Hawaii, the Station in the middle of a blizzard," says Errickson. eel farm offering outrageous returns, and the Florida real estate It wasn't that the financier was stupid, adds Errick- that turns out to be a swamp are easy enough to spot. But grift- son, rather that "he allowed greed to cloud his judg- ers are becoming more sophisticated, and so are the stories that ment." The best protection anyone can have against they weave. It is not just the trusting little old lady in Boca Ra- being swindled is simply to remove that cloud. ton who is being taken by today's swindlers, but doctors, lawyers, Here is a look at some of the latest scams that are accountants, and even CEOs. cruelly separating investors from their money. Those What's going on? Some people have fallen behind on their re- who try to become familiar with as many different tirement savings and are looking for magic potions to make up for schemes as possible will be better equipped to avoid lost ground. Other investors have simply developed an insatiable other people's costly mistakes. appetite for high returns in this seemingly endless bull market. In either case, they keep reaching for the extra-plump returns, A $700 MILLION PONZI SCHEME? and the armies of sinister con men out there are only too willing to play on that greed. Sometimes an investment sounds so reasonable and enticing that no New kinds of scams are popping up every day. Some of the matter how careful you are, its fraudulent nature is nearly impossi- more clever ones involve phony securities or investments sold ble to detect. Such appears to be the case with the Bennett Fund- over the Internet. Others are twists on old-fashioned frauds like ing scandal, which duped 12,000 individuals and 245 banks in what Ponzi schemes or selling interests in worthless businesses. Even the SEC calls America's most massive Ponzi scheme. How did it the most astute investors are liable to get taken by these new work? These people lost their retirement nest eggs and college sav- cons if they think they can get a, free ride. Lee Errickson, an in- ings by investing in supposedly safe office-equipment leases, which vestigative investment analyst at Coopers & Lybrand, relates were for the most part innocently peddled by their brokers. how once, while snowed in at a train station, he struck up a con- If anything can be learned from this, it's to diversify your in- versation with an international financier. The financier was vestments. That's something Anthony Capriglione, 73, a former about to loan several million dollars to an Arab in a complicated CEO of a small New Jersey bank, wishes he had done. Repeat- deal that was supposedly going to pay him 14% interest, when edly over the years, he transferred all of his IRA and pension the normal rate at the time was closer to 6%. "I found holes in funds into Bennett leases and persuaded family and friends to do 142 FORTUNE August 18, 1997 Patrick Bennett is Department of Defense charged with bilking and, ironically, the investors of some FBI). Some even had an $700 million in insurance component a leasing scam. that seemed to guaran- tee the returns. The catch for so many of the victims was exactly that-guaranteed high returns with no more risk. Investors received a check every month up until the private, family-controlled company filed for Chapter 11. Other than the fact that they were not registered securities (and thus not filed with the SEC), there was nothing obviously outlandish about the leases. Their returns of around 8% to 12% were better than an average municipal bond's. It's not that the Bennett operations were a complete fraud. There was a real business around which the alleged sham was built. "Around this core of reality," explains bank- ruptcy trustee (and former SEC chief) Richard Breeden, "was spun a web of imaginary activi- ties, with the result that people could be shown things that were real, but they had no way of evaluating the magnitude of claims against those things." The problem, he says, was that DICK BLUME-THE SYRACUSE NEWSPAPERS Bennett sold the same leases multiple times to different investors. Some of the leases were pooled together, with the same ones repre- sented in different pools. Others were entirely fictitious or were pledged as collateral to banks before being sold to investors who were un- aware that what they had bought had already been pledged to someone else. By the end of the the same until their stake totaled $1.4 million. "I put all my eggs game, Bennett was paying out over $30 million a month to inves- in one basket," he says, "because it was doing so well." Before he tors but was collecting only about $13 million from actual leases. invested, he took a trip on behalf of his bank to the Bennett of- On June 26, U.S. Attorney Mary Jo White indicted former chief no fices in Syracuse, N.Y., and was impressed with the strong un- financial officer Patrick Bennett on 37 counts that include con- derwriting guidelines he saw enforced. All that due diligence was spiracy, securities and bank fraud, lying to the SEC, money laun- d- worthless, though, on the day the money dried up. dering, and concealing assets. His brother Michael and two others at When the Bennett Funding Group went bankrupt last year, were charged with conspiracy to obstruct an SEC investigation. All it there were about $1 billion worth of claims against assets valued pled not guilty. Patrick's lawyer says the company was not a Ponzi IV- at $300 million, meaning investors are short some $700 million. Its scheme, nor was it run for Patrick's "personal enrichment." list of creditors include lawyers, doctors, a former judge, accoun- Court documents, however, paint a different picture-one of tants, a risk assessor for an insurance company, and many suc- Patrick Bennett running amok in the company's finance depart- n- cessful entrepreneurs. Bennett purchased leases for office equip- ment from 1990 to 1996, fraudulently overstating income in finan- ment such as copiers, faxes, phones, and computers, then resold cial statements to make it appear that the company was profitable them to investors. The leases were marketed as tax-free and safe when it had actually suffered losses. (One red flag for investors: n investments, since the payments for the office equipment gener- The company changed auditors in 1991, from Arthur Andersen to ally came from municipalities or federal agencies (including the a smaller, less well-known firm.) August 18, 1997 FORTUNE 143 RETIREMENT GUIDE / PLANNING Patrick and his brother also allegedly diverted hundreds of GET YOUR "SPECIAL" BANK NOTES millions of dollars to accounts that he controlled, and spent tens of millions on speculative ventures such as hotels, a horse race- The Internet, a place filled mostly with trusting people, is be- track, failed casinos, and a mall project meant to attract a horde coming a bonanza for the greedy grifter. The SEC now receives of Canadians to northern Maine (they never came). The most ex- close to 40 complaints a day about Internet scams. Never make orbitant waste of money, however, was probably the construction an investment decision based solely on what someone tells you on of a $14 million replica of a side-wheeler casino boat called the Web. For one thing, you can never be sure whom you are talk- The Speculator. ing to online. A smalltime con artist can give himself some cred- Breeden has already distributed $110 million to secured ibility by building a Website that looks better than those run by creditors such as banks, and another $133 million is awaiting large corporations. Behind that posted message or E-mail from the court's decision on who is entitled to it. But that's small a company officer could really be a shortseller who wants to scare consolation for all-the individual investors who have yet to see you into unloading a perfectly good stock. Stock promoters can a dime. "I think the bankruptcy laws are cruel toward investors lurk clandestinely in popular investment chat rooms trying to today," complains Henry Schaeffer, 78, who leads a small splin- create a buzz and pump up their shares; sometimes they go so far ter group of displeased victims. "Professionals suck out so as to set up their own fake "investment newsletter" sites that are much money while investors sit on the sidelines." Without pros really just tout pages. working on the case, though, it is doubtful anyone would One recent and particularly pernicious Internet scam in- volved fake securities called prime KEN bank notes. John Finnerty, an expert on bogus securities at Coopers & Lybrand, explains that imaginary in- vestments like prime bank notes look "similar to something people have seen before but with a little twist that justifies the higher returns promised." Of course there is no such thing as higher returns without higher risk. Traditionally targeted at portfolio managers and wealthy individuals able to put up millions, these prime bank note scams are wending their way down to the general investing public. In one instance the SEC brought a case against a trio who used CompuServe and the Internet to solicit investments ranging from $12,000 to $240,000. The m.o.: A promoter promises to get you into an exclusive circle of investors who are pooling their resources to par- ticipate in a secret market carried on among the top 100 "prime" banks in Anthony Capriglione see any money at all. Breeden in- the world. These banks transfer billions of dollars-among them- failed to diversify and tends to recover at least 25 cents for selves every day and are sometimes willing to pay extremely lost his retirement sav- every dollar that individual victims high interest rates, you are told, to temporarily park their funds ings to a clever fraud. invested. in special holding accounts. Your money supposedly goes to It is easy to say investors could have open up one of these accounts and is guaranteed to at least dou- avoided much grief if they had exhibited more caution. But no one ble or triple. could reasonably have expected to know much about Bennett In his pitch the crooked promoter strings together jargon Funding-a private company without an independent board of di- from all sorts of legitimate financial instruments, such as de- rectors, answerable to no one but the Bennett family. There were rivatives. Upon close inspection his spiel is actually nonsensical, warning signs. The fact that the securities they bought were not reg- but many people who think they are financially sophisticated istered with the SEC should have made investors automatically. are too embarrassed to admit they don't understand exactly wary, as should the company's change of auditors. But the real how the prime bank notes are supposed to work. question is, Are complex investments like these appropriate for the "It's easy to get taken in by the atmospherics," says SEC en- little guy? Probably not. Apparently, though, the coaxing of be- forcer Paul Huey-Burns. While most conventional frauds in- nighted brokers coupled with the lure of handsome guaranteed re- volve something investors can inspect, "in the case of prime turns was too hard to resist. "It's like kids playing with firecrack- bank notes," he cautions, "there is nothing there except pieces ers," reflects Breeden. "They do blow off their fingers sometimes." of paper. They're tailor-made for the Internet." continued 144 FORTUNE August 18, 1997 RETIREMENT GUIDE / PLANNING THERE'S GOLD stones. Investors are told, for instance, IN THEM THAR HILLS that they can buy gemstones at below- THE ONLY THING WORSE market rates and, through the pro- What investor can resist getting in moter's brokerage services, later sell on the ground floor of an exciting THAN TRYING TO RECOVER them on the open market. The dupes new high-tech industry, whether it's are sent gems and receive periodic up- the Internet, wireless cable, or inter- FROM A SWINDLER'S SUCKER dates about their supposed value. active video data services? The trou- Then they are offered a chance to cash ble is, most investors don't under- PUNCH IS TO GET SLUGGED in their "appreciated" stones for credit stand these businesses and are against more expensive ones. Here's therefore juicy targets for a con. AGAIN WHILE STILL WINDED. how it works. First you pay, say, $300 "One thing that is impressive," notes for a stone that's really worth only Huey-Burns "is the extent to which $100. Then after a few months you're fairly sophisticated people can be taken. People read about told that the gem is now worth $500 and you can put that amount Craig McCaw, and the pitch is, "You could be like Craig toward one worth $700. You like the quick returns, so you go for McCaw." These high-tech scams, which typically involve part- it. When it finally comes time to sell, the grifters can't be reached, nerships in phony businesses, have been pulled off hundreds of and the price the stones fetch at a jeweler ends up being only times by various con men who snare investors with a much older about half what you paid for it. How can people fall for something technology: the telephone. like this? FTC attorney Robert Friedman explains, "People get A series of schemes investigated by the Federal Trade Com- sucked in because they think they have made money already." mission started with an offer to invest in a 900-number dating ser- The only thing worse than trying to recover from a swindler's vice and psychic hot line. The scam evolved to an Internet shop- sucker punch is to get slugged again while still winded. This is what ping mall and Internet service providers that were going to set up happens in recovery-room operations, where a con man contacts operations in cities like Seattle, Chicago, and Detroit. All of these victims of previous scams (their names are circulated on "mooch" investments, says the FTC, were promoted by the same group of lists) and says he'll help them get back the money they lost. Inves- alleged tele-swindlers working mostly out of boiler rooms in Los tors gladly pay a "processing" fee and are thus double-duped. In one Angeles. 1994 case in Atlanta, alleges the FTC, some investors who had al- According to the ready been rooked into buying practically worthless mobile-radio li- FTC, the con men censes were called by a person pos- would call poten- ing as a telecom-license broker. For tial investors and a fee, he told the hapless investors, ask them to pony up DON'T BE A SAP he would help them recover their between $10,000 and $20,000 for stake. Investors anted up and never partnership shares. The promoters RENEE KLEIN Ten ways to avoid being ripped off saw their money again. Ouch. would then hold a partnership What's your likelihood of get- INVESTORS should never put their money into any meeting and distribute about 15% ting ripped off? Most of today's scheme or company they don't really understand. of the proceeds to investors, pocket brokers and financial planners are the rest, and wash their hands of IF SOMEONE is pressuring you too-much, chances honest people who want to help any further involvement. By the are he is not your friend. you prosper. But your chances of time the investors would figure out GOOD INVESTMENTS usually don't have long becoming a victim are increasing. what was going on, they'd be left stories attached; 12-minute tales should scare you. Investors are targeted by swin- with shares in companies that had dlers the same way they are by THE MORE PEOPLE you get involved in your de- littlé infrastructure and no money. run-of-the-mill marketers. "Peò- cision to invest, the better; talk to your accountant, lawyer, The addresses listed as headquar- ple get on lists," says Susan Grant, even your broker. ters were just mail drops, and the a director of the National Consu- phone numbers were answering MAKE SURE you get proof of ownership for what you mers League. "Demographic in- services. Meanwhile, the promot- are buying. You may need it in court someday. formation is available from gov- ers were busy rolling out their next BE EXTRA CAREFUL when investing in financial ernment agencies, and it is operation. instruments that are not registered with the SEC. possible to get names of retirees Business investment scams are LOOK AT THE COMPANY and make sure it has or people who have invested heav- not limited to high tech. The FTC adequate oversight from securities analysts, independent ily," she adds. and SEC have brought actions directors, and regulatory agencies. The best defense is knowing against operations selling everything whom you're dealing with and NEVER MAKE investment decisions based solely on from shares in oil-drilling concerns what you're buying. It's a pity to what you see on the Internet. and silver mines to movie produc- live in a world where fear and sus- tion companies-even a coconut- IF ENTRY into an exclusive circle of investors is part picion reign, but if you understand chip distributor in Costa Rica. of the deal, search elsewhere. Chances are, you're really not some of the ways the criminal Another favorite racket involves that special. mind works, you can save yourself investments in goods such as rare THERE'S NO SUCH THING as high returns not only a lot of money but a lot of stamps and semiprecious 'gem- without high risk. pain. 146 FORTUNE But while Rubin can muse about his modest contribu- they would include the money invested in an IRA in tion to the Republican fratricide, that doesn't change their current taxable income, but would not pay taxes the fact that the administration has signed off on a seri- when they pull money out. In effect, the interest they ously flawed tax bill-a bill that defies every standard by make would be tax-free. That will cost the Treasury bil- which tax bills have been judged. Tax bills, it is often lions over the next few decades. argued, should simplify an already rococo code. This There are, in fact, very few redeeming features of this one adds incredible new gewgaws and curlicues. There tax bill. Rubin- may have prevented a massacre of the tax are now at least six different rates at which capital gains code, but he settled for a rout. The major beneficiaries are taxed. There are four different tax strategies that par- of this bill are not Americans as a whole but the indi- ents can use to help send their children to college. Any viduals who live in the affluent suburbs of Archer's middle-class parent who wants to take advantage of these Houston and Gingrich's Atlanta and who now vote credits and deductions will need to hire an accountant. Republican. They will take this bill to the bank, while Tax bills are also supposed to be fair, and, while the the rest of us pay for it. definition of fairness varies depending on who you ask, this one satisfies none of them. After two decades in which the private market has created wide disparities between income classes, this bill gives the wealthiest A limited defense of chemical castration. 20 percent over 75 percent of the benefits, according to Citizens for Tax Justice. In addition, people/who have equal incomes will face spectacularly different tax bills, depending on everything from how they make their money to whether their children are in school. It will be a bonanza for accountants-and a new liability to any- KINDER CUT one who can't afford one. Tax bills are also supposed to help the economy by encouraging stable growth. Yet, while the education cred- By Craig Turk its President Clinton so desperately sought might help a little to create a more competitive work force in the next ast year, the California legislature became the century, nothing else in the bill will have a beneficial im- pact. Credible economists have yet to demonstrate that L first state to mandate "chemical castration"-the temporary and reversible suppression of sex cutting capital gains tax rates spurs economic growth. In drive through hormone shots-for several testimony this spring before the Senate Finance Com- classes of convicted sexual predators. And sometime mittee, former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker next year, a California court will almost certainly strike remarked, "I'm not going to argue cause and effect, that down the law., The court will likely say that the law is too the high capital gains taxes actually caused a good econ- vague, that the treatment may not always work and that omy. But it's very hard to argue, I think, that a reduction the measure as written is "cruel and unusual punish- in capital gains tax is vital to economic activity." ment." In all of this, the court will be absolutely correct. Even. Rubin's scheme to force longer-term invest- But lawmakers in Florida, Michigan, Massachusetts, ments can't redeem the capital gains break. In fact, Missouri, Texas and Washington should not abandon Rubin's plan to encourage patient capital-while popu- their efforts to pass similar laws just yet. In at least some lar in the early 1990s-no longer wins support from cases, injections of medroxyprogesterone acetate (more most tax experts. Jane Gravelle and Donald Kiefer from commonly called Depo-Provera) can function as a sex- the Congressional Research Service and Margaret Blair ual appetite suppressant, keeping convicted molesters and William Gale at the Brookings Institution all doubt from harming again. Moreover, when administered as that getting people to hold stock longer will necessarily part of a broader psychological treatment regimen, the affect whether corporate managers undertake long- shots can actually help in rehabilitation. California term investments. And if corporate managers, whose erred mainly by passing a law that applied the treat- investment patterns directly affect economic perfor- ment so indiscriminately. A more carefully tailored mea- mance, don't change their behavior, then the economic sure-one that invoked chemical castration in more benefit Rubin promised will be negligible. This whole limited circumstances-would not only be an effective argument, Gale says, is just "another disguised reason to crime deterrent and rehabilitation tool, it is also more give a capital gains tax cut." likely to pass constitutional muster. Meanwhile, the tax provisions could have a disastrous Under California's law, which took effect in January, effect on the deficit after 2002. Many of them are "back- state courts can force anyone convicted of molesting loaded" to take effect after that. Some of the capital children younger than 13 to undergo, as a condition of gains cuts won't begin drawing out revenue until 2006. parole, Depo-Provera shots, which reduce testosterone The bill also creates new "backloaded IRAs." In the past, to prepuberty levels and are supposed to prevent sex taxpayers got to deduct from their current tax bill the offenders from molesting again. After a second convic- money they put into IRAs, but would have to pay taxes tion, injections are mandatory. The concept of chemi- on it when they finally withdrew it. Under the new plan, cal castration is not new. Though not quite as effective 12 THE NEW REPUBLIC AUGUST 25, 1997 as surgical castration-an option California graciously by a story of a child rape in Texas. The courts, however, offers, presumably for felons who really hate needles— will probably see things differently. There is, first, the physicians have used drugs like Depo-Provera for over question of whether chemical castration amounts to twenty years. Published data strongly indicate that very "cruel and unusual punishment," as prohibited by the low testosterone levels correlate with low sexual libido Eighth Amendment. Although jurisprudence in this for men, and several studies have shown such treatment area is somewhat muddled, it generally involves evalua- works in controlling the sexual behavior of certain types tions of how a punishment was viewed historically and of pedophiles. Some of the most striking results, fre- how it meets modern standards of decency. quently touted by proponents of the California legisla- tion, come from studies in Denmark and Switzerland, iven the nature of the crimes at issue, the high- where voluntary chemical castration reduced recidivism rates from 50 percent or higher to substantially less G tech elegance of the procedure and its consid- erable political popularity, courts are unlikely than 10 percent. In a widely cited statement, one Dan- to strike down Depo-Provera injections as cruel ish sex offender raved, "My sex fantasies, which once and unusual-if they are used in cases in which the made me a criminal, are gone. Watching a porno- treatment works. But, because the California law applies graphic movie is like watching the evening news." the punishment indiscriminately, it is constitutionally But if California had bothered to check the details of vulnerable: it may seem like we cannot be cruel enough these studies, it would have known better than to man- to child molesters, but the Constitution makes no date chemical castration for such a broad class of sexual allowances for pure vindictiveness. Forcing weekly injec- criminals. For starters, the European studies used small tions of a hormone-particularly one not FDA- samples and lacked adequate control groups. Everyone approved for such purposes-on criminals who will not who underwent the treatment did so voluntarily, which be controlled or rehabilitated by it is precisely the kind suggests the participants at least wanted to be treated of severe and random punishment the Eighth Amend- and raises questions about whether Depo-Provera would ment sought to prohibit. work for offenders less eager to be reformed. Another legal issue concerns the Fourteenth Amend- What's more, sex offenders are not a homogeneous ment, which prohibits deprivation of life, liberty or group: even among those who prey only upon children, property without due process. Although the Supreme there are numerous types. Some individuals cannot Court has not recognized a right to a libido, it has attain sexual or emotional satisfaction with adults at all; declared-in a 1942 decision striking down involuntary others, such as the mentally retarded, sometimes turn sterilization for habitual felons-that procreation is a to children because they cannot deal successfully or "basic civil right of man." While chemical castration is maturely with adults. There are those whose crimes are reversible, and while it does not necessarily impair func- the product of impaired judgment-one study recently tioning to the point of making intercourse or procre- concluded that as many as 76 percent of sex. offenders ation impossible for men, it does make procreation abuse alcohol, and that half of their crimes are commit- temporarily impossible for women. Indeed, for women ted while the offender is intoxicated. And there are also Depo-Provera is a form of birth control-and it does sadistic offenders motivated by malice. not dampen their libidos. To justify this infringement upon a fundamental epo-Provera may help control the trenchcoat- right-the right to procreate-the state must show that it D wearing, candy-toting playground stalker, yet has a compelling interest, "narrowly tailored" to the situ- the evidence suggests it will do little to prevent ation involved. Controlling convicted child molesters crimes against children by predators who act through hormone suppression is likely to satisfy the for reasons other than sexual gratification, who harm "compelling state interest" test: sex crimés against chil- children out of rage and emotional imbalance, or dren are a serious public problem, and Depo-Provera whose gratification for their crimes may not be wholly treatments can help redress it in some cases. But Califor- sexual. The only way to keep these criminals from nia's program fails the "narrowly tailored" test: Depo- molesting again, experts say, is to keep them in prison, Provera's temporary sterilization of women has nothing or through intensive treatment and counseling. The to do with the professed goal of lowering offenders' sex California Psychiatric Association, which like most med- drives. And, even if it had been limited to men, the Cali- ical groups has opposed the California law, concluded: fornia law does not ensure that only those. who can be "While we support efforts in finding effective methods helped by the process are chemically castrated. of stopping sex offenders from reoffending, psychia- This is not a case of unjustified public rage, but of trists fundamentally believe that not all offenders would legislative pandering subverting a potentially effective necessarily benefit from this type of treatment interven- solution to a barbaric problem. Proponents of Califor- tion and that treatment is most effective when the per- nia's law claim their measure is better than nothing, but son agrees to try to change their behavior." lawmakers elsewhere should realize that nothing is not For practical purposes, this might not seem like a fatal the only alternative. flaw, given that the safety of children is at stake. "Noth- ing's 100 percent," says Assemblyman Bill Hoge of CRAIG TURK is a law student and former managing edi- Pasadena, who introduced the bill after being sickened tor of The Public Interest. AUGUST 25, 1997 THE NEW REPUBLIC 13 Why Johnny can't read, write or sit still. DEFINING DISABILITY DOWN By Ruth Shalit n July of 1995, Jon Westling, the provost of Boston medical proof that students with learning disabilities are I University, traveled to Australia to attend the unable to learn these subjects. Henceforth, he declared, Winter Conversazione on Culture and Society, a all requests for learning-disabled accommodations highbrow tête-à-tête for globetrotting pundits and would be routed through his office. Westling then made savants. Westling, a protégé of former B.U. President a final announcement. In 1996, he said, he would John Silber, is an avowed conservative; and the subtitle become president of the university. of his speech, "The Culture Wars Go to School," seemed The learning-disability establishment was dumb- to portend the usual helping of red meat for the faith- founded. "Here was someone coming in with no knowl- ful. But instead of decrying deconstruction, or punctur- edge, taking the national model and destroying it," says ing the pretensions of tenured radicals, Westling took Anne Schneider, the Park Avenue fund-raising doyenne aim at an unexpected target-the learning-disabled. He who spearheaded the creation of B.U.'s program a told the story of a shy yet assertive undergrad, "Somno- decade ago, after her learning-disabled daughter Andrea lent Samantha," who had approached him one day after nearly washed out of the university-due, Schneider says, class and presented him with a letter from the Office of to a lack of services. Schneider, whose personal fund-rais- Disability Services. The letter explained that Samantha ing efforts have kept the office flush with cash, sees West- had a learning disability "in the area of aúditory pro- ling's assault on her brainchild as analogous to "taking a cessing" and would require certain "accommodations," seeing-eye dog away from a blind person." Janet Cahaley, including time-and-a-half on quizzes, double time on the mother of learning-disabled sophomore Michael, agrees: midterm, examinations administered in a room separate "These kids are the most vulnerable people on campus. from all other students, copies of Westling's lecture Before, they were treated with humanity and decency and notes and a reserved seat at the front of the class. kindness. Now, they're hopeless and helpless." Samantha also notified Westling that she might doze off Well, maybe not so helpless. Westling's putsch brought in class, and that he should fill her in on any material howls from disabled-rights advocates and from the she missed while snoozing. media, which pounced upon the revelation that Somno- The somnolent undergrad, Westling contended, was lent Samantha was a fictitious composite-a "rhetorical- not alone. A new, learning-disabled generation was com- trope," as Westling somewhat sheepishly admitted. And ing of age in America, a generation "trained to the trel- on July 15, 1996, ten students filed a lawsuit against West- lis of dependency on their special status and the ling, claiming his unkind words and arduous new accommodations that are made to it." Citing a Depart- requirements amounted to illegal discrimination under ment of Education estimate that up to 20 percent of the 1990 Americans With Disabilities Act. In their com- Americans may be learning-disabled, Westling mused on plaint, the students alleged that Westling's new standard the evolutionary ramifications of such a diagnosis. for documentation-requiring applicants to submit an "There may be as many as 50 million Americans," he evaluation that is less than three years old and prepared observed. "What happened? Did America suffer some by a physician or licensed psychologist-amounted to an silent genetic catastrophe?" "unduly burdensome prerequisite" that would screen out Westling's speech, it turns out, was a prelude to action. learning-disabled students from receiving their legally Shortly after returning from Melbourne, the aggrieved mandated accommodations. Also unlawful, the students provost took, a cleaver to B.U.'s bloated Office of Learn- contended, was Westling's prohibition on waivers of aca- ing Disabilities Support Services, a half-million dollar demic requirements. Finally, in their most enterprising fiefdom whose policies had, in the words of The New York claim, the students accused Westling of creating a "hos- Times, earned B.U. a "national reputation" as a haven of tile learning environment" for the disabled, inflicting support for the learning-impaired. He stepped up stan- needless "emotional distress" and crushing their hopes dards for documentation, and he issued a blanket prohi- of collective advancement. A ruling by Judge Patti B. bition on waivers of the school's math and foreign Saris of Boston Federal District Court is expected by the language requirements, contending that there was no end of August. 16 THE NEW REPUBLIC AUGUST 25, 1997 Recent rulings by other judges suggest that the this grand aspiration was framed in the fuzziest of terms. learning-disabled students may well prevail in court. But The statutory framework for modern disability law was even then the questions begged by Somnolent Samantha established in the Rehabilitation Act of 1973, which man- will remain. Westling and B.U.'s new guard insist that dated assistance measures for the disabled in federal they have no animus against those with "genuine" learn- facilities. Here is how Section 504 of the act defined a ing impairments; they simply want to weed out the learning disability: "a disorder in one or more of the impostors. Yet, in holding up a trendy diagnosis to the basic psychological processes involved in understanding bright light of public scrutiny, B.U. officials have raised or in using language, spoken or written [which] may issues that go to the core of a debate that has grown as manifest itself in imperfect ability to listen, think, speak, civil rights law. has expanded to cover not merely the read, write, spell or do mathematical calculations. This halt, the lame and the blind, but the dysfunctional, the remarkably broad definition is echoed in all subsequent debilitatéd and the drowsy. disability laws, notably the 1975 Individuals With Disabil- ities Education Act, which mandated an array of services hould "learning-disabled" even be a protected for disabled public school students, and the 1990 Ameri- S category under federal law? What, exactly, is a cans With Disabilities Act, which extended the-protec- learning disability? Are the B.U. plaintiffs at the tions of the Rehabilitation Act into the private sector. All vanguard of a new generation of civil rights war- three laws are equally vague in their description of how as riors, as their supporters contend? Or is their lawsuit the people with disabilities must be treated. As the ADA puts reductio ad absurdum of identity politics and tort mad- it, in the case of any individual possessing a "disability" d ness-Harrison Bergeron meets Perry Mason in The that results in "substantial impairment" of a "major life Case of the Litigious Lollygaggers? activity," schools and employers cannot "discriminate" The recent announcement by the Equal Employment and must provide "reasonable accommodation." The Opportunity Commission that the Americans With Dis- meaning of these legal appelations, as interpreted by the abilities Act covers not only physically but mentally courts and the regulatory agencies, would turn out to be handicapped individuals has occasioned a flurry of remarkably expansive. a hand-wringing editorials. Worried employers have painted a scary scenario of a law that will coddle mur- here were some limits written into the disability derous lunatics, endanger the welfare of unsuspecting customers and transform America's factories and T laws. For instance, only "otherwise qualified" individuals are entitled to protection; accommo- foundries into dystopias of dementia. In some ways, how- dations are only mandated if they do not result in a ever, it is the entrenchment of learning disability- "undue hardship." But recently a number of rulings by a comparatively undersung, and seemingly more federal courts and government enforcement agencies benign, "hidden impairment"-that poses the more sub- have revealed how flimsy these limits are. versive challenge to basic notions of fair play, profession- Although compliance with federal disability law is not alism and equal protection under the law. supposed to come at the expense of education or job No one would deny that an individual who is unfortu- performance standards, the Department of Education's nate enough to be afflicted with one of the classically Office of Civil Rights has delivered stinging rebukes to defined mental disorders-schizophrenia, paranoia, schools that refuse to exempt learning-disabled students manic depression, and so on-suffers from a clearly from academic requirements. Last May, a student defined and clearly recognizable infirmity, one that is afflicted with dyscalculia-math disability-filed a com- likely to impair significantly her educational achieve- plaint with the San Francisco Office for Civil Rights after ments and career prospects. (Whether employers should her college declined to waive the math course required be legally compelled to overlook these mental disabili- of all business majors in paralegal studies. Despite the ties is another matter.) The diagnosis of a learning dis- college's earnest attempts to accommodate her impair- ability, in contrast, is a far more subjective matter. For ment-the student would receive extensive tutoring and many of the more recently discovered learning mal- extra time on tests-OCR issued a finding of discrimina- adies-math disability, foreign-language disability, "dys- tion anyway, writing on May 30 that bsolute rules rationalia"-there are no standard tests. To be sure, real against any particular form of academic adjustment or and debilitating learning disabilities do exist. But there accommodation are disfavored by the law." When the are no good scientific grounds to believe that some of school asked if they could require learning-disabled stu- the more exotic diagnoses have any basis in reality. Yet, dents to at least try to pass a required course, OCR said thanks to the interlocking protections of three powerful no way, arguing that "it is discriminatory to require the federal disability laws, refusal to accommodate even the student to consume his or her time and jeopardize his most dubious claims of learning impairment is now or her grade point average taking a particular mathe- treated by the courts and by the federal government as matics course when the person qualified to administer the persecution of a protected minority class. and/or interpret the psychometric data has determined Modern disability law was inspired by the most hu- that the student, due to his or her disability, is highly mane of motives, to protect the disabled from prejudices unlikely to pass the course with any of the accommoda- that deprived them of equal opportunities in the work- tions the institution can identify and/or deliver." OCR place and in the classroom. From the outset, however, added that this rule should apply even to borderline AUGUST 25, 1997 THE NEW REPUBLIC 17 dyscalculics, that "substantial group of students for exam-and her accompanying impediment to becom- whom interpretation of psychometric measures provide ing. bar-admitted-exclude her from a 'class of jobs' no clear prediction of success in a particular mathemat- under the ADA," and could not be permitted. ics course." To drive home her point, Judge Sotomayor triumph- antly cited Bartlett's performance during a courtroom his is the new frontier, the learning disability as demonstration of her reading skills. "Plaintiff read halt- T an opportunistic tautology. The fact that one dis- ingly and laboriously, whispering and sounding out plays a marked lack of aptitude for a particular some words more than once under her breath before intellectual discipline or profession establishes she spoke them aloud," the judge recalled. "She made one's legal right to ensure at least a degree of success in one word identification error, reading the word that discipline or profession. That is not a fanciful con- 'indicted' as 'indicated.'' ceit, but an adjudicated reality. Several judges have It could, of course, be argued that the ability to read is recently ventured the enterprising claim that any person an essential function of lawyering; that any law school who is not performing up to his or her abilities in a cho- graduate who cannot distinguish "indicated" from sen endeavor suffers from a learning disability within the "indicted," who cannot perform cognitive tasks under meaning of the ADA. time constraints, is incapable of performing the func- Consider the lawsuit filed in 1993 by an aspiring attor- tions of a practicing lawyer and therefore, perhaps, ney named Marilyn J. Bartlett. Bartlett graduated in should not be a practicing lawyer. But one would be 1991 from Vermont Law School, where she received arguing those things in the teeth of the law. Thanks to generous accommodations of her reading disability and the, Americans With Disabilities Act, the Individuals disability in "phonological processing.' Nonetheless, With Disabilities Education Act and Section 504 of the Bartlett did not do well, graduating with a GPA of 2.32 Rehabilitation Act of 1973, Bartlett and her fellows and a class standing of 143 out of 153 students. She then among the learning-disabled are now eligible for a life- went to work as a professor of education at Dowling Col- long buffet of perks, special breaks and procedural pro- lege, where, according to court documents, she tections, a web of entitlement that extends from cradle "receives accommodations at work for her reading prob- to grave. lems in the form of a full-time work-study student who assists her in reading and writing tasks." on Westling is a crusty chainsmoker with owlish When it came time to take the bar exam, Bartlett peti- tioned the New York Board of Law Examiners for special J glasses and a stuffy, orotund manner, an easy figure to mock. But, as it turns out, his portrait of Somno- arrangements. She wanted unlimited time for the test, lent Samantha was hardly a wild flight of fancy. access to food and drink, a private room and the use of Before beginning his formal audit of LDSS's practices, an amanuensis to record her answers. Acting on the Westling asked its director, Loring Brinckerhoff, advice of its own expert, who reported that Bartlett's test whether the office had ever turned down a single re- data did not support a diagnosis of a reading disorder, quest for special dispensation on the grounds that the the board refused Bartlett's demands. Three times, student hadn't presented enough evidence. When Bartlett attempted the exam without accommodation. Brinckerhoff answered no, Westling asked to see folders After her third failure, she sued the board. and accommodation letters for the twenty-eight stu- On July 3, 1997, Judge Sonia Sotomayor ruled in dents who had most recently requested and received Bartlett's favor. Ordering the board to provide the adjustments to their academic program. Of these accommodations Bartlett had requested, she also twenty-eight, Westling pronounced no fewer than awarded Bartlett $12,500 in compensatory damages. twenty-seven to be insufficiently documented. And, Judge Sotomayor did not challenge the board's con- indeed, copies of the students' filés, exhumed during tention that Bartlett was neither impaired nor disabled, the discovery phase of the lawsuit and now available as at least not in the traditional sense. In an enterprising courthouse exhibits, seem to provide some support for new twist, however, she declared that Bartlett's skills this harsh assessment. ought not to be compared to those of an "average per- For starters, some of the diagnosticians themselves son in the general population". but, rather, to an "aver- appeared somewhat impaired. One evaluator wrote that age person with comparable training, skills and "taking notes and underlying [sic] while reading" would abilities"-i.e., to her fellow cohort of aspiring lawyers. help a student "maintain her attention." Another stu- An "essential question" in the case, said the judge, was dent, a female, was erroneously referred to as "Joe" by whether the plaintiff, would "have a substantial impair- the evaluator who pronounced her to be learning- ment in performing [the] job" of a practicing lawyer. disabled. Even more troubling, though, was LDSS's seem- The answer to this question was "yes," the judge found. ingly reflexive acquiescence to students' wish lists. And this answer-the fact that Bartlett would have a Michael Cahaley, one of the plaintiffs in the lawsuit, was, very hard time meeting the job requirements of a prac- according to Westling's affidavit, described by his doc- ticing lawyer-was, in the judge's opinion, precisely the tor as having "minimal" deficits: "this very intelli- reason why Bartlett had a protected right to become a gent youngster should do well in high school and col- practicing lawyer. Thus, Judge Sotomayor ruled that lege." Nonetheless, Cahaley had requested-and was Bartlett's "inability to be accommodated on the bar granted-double time on all of his examinations. In 18 THE NEW REPUBLIC AUGUST 25, 1997 another case, the clinical psychologist who examined a Scott Greeley, who, testified that he suffers from an student reported that his "skill deficits" were "not severe "audio-visual learning processing deficit." At B.U., Gree- enough to be a learning disability"; but a learning spe- ley had been provided with a note-taker, time-and-a- cialist misread the report and recommended accommo- half on tests and an open-ended right to have any test dation anyway, on the grounds that "the student was question "clarified" by the instructor. But the perks evaluated and found to have a learning disability." didn't help much-as Greeley explained at trial, after Sometimes the evaluator's recommendations seemed the accommodations were provided his GPA im- just bizarre. In one case, a student's psychologist opined proved to a less-than-stellar 1.9. Over the course of the that a student who "appears to have subtle verbal trial, B.U. attorneys established that this shoddy show- processing difficulties" should not be "asked to recall ing was perhaps not wholly attributable to societal per- very specific data or information." As Westling dryly secution of the disabled. Queried about his spotty atten- observed in his affidavit, requests for "very specific data dance record in a science course for which he received or information" con- a "D" grade, Greeley stituted "an essential WHAT DOES YOUR explained that "part of element of every my disability is that course and academic I need a structured program offered by HEALTHY, NORMAL PERFECT, schedule." "Would you Boston University." LITTLE DARLING NEED TO say you missed over At the trial, the stu- half the classes?" dent plaintiffs came GET AHEAD iN LIFE ? persisted the judge. off as something other "Probably around than inspiring champi- that, yes," replied the ons for disabled rights. undergrad. Elizabeth Guckenber- It would be comfort- ger, a third-year law ing to think that B.U.'s student who was diag- "disabled" plaintiffs nosed as having "a represent an excep- visual and oral process- tion to the norm, but ing disability" while a this does not seem to freshman at Carleton be the case. Over the College, admitted she years, proposed re- had received every ac- forms to disability law commodation she had have been effectively ever requested under vanquished by tele- the Westling regime, vised testimony from including extra time sobbing children in on exams, a reduced A SMALL DiSABiLiTY TO wheelchairs. Increas- course load and pri- ingly, however, individ- ority registration in the law school section UALIFY FOR SPECIAL AiD uals with grave physi- cal handicaps com- of her choice. Ben- AND WE CAN FIND JUST THE ONE prise only a small por- jamin Freedman, a you ARE LOOKING FOR tion of the people who senior with dysgraphia claim special privilege ("really, really bad CONTACT ADA RESEARCH INC. FOR COMPLETE DETAILS AND PROSPECTUS under the federal dis- handwriting," he says), DRAWING BY VINT LAWRENCE FOR THE NEW REPUBLIC ability laws. As Man- also got everything hattan Institute fellow he wanted, including double time on exams, the option Walter Olson points out in The Excuse Factory, complaints to be tested orally and the services of a professional note- by the traditionally disabled-the deaf, blind and para- taker. plegic-have accounted for only a tiny share of ADA Plaintiff Jordan Nodelman, who claimed he suffered lawsuits. According to 1996 EEOC figures, only 8 percent from Attention Deficit Disorder (ADD), also had re- of employment complaints have come from wheelchair ceived every accommodation he ever requested, includ- users and a mere 6 percent from the deaf or blind, bring- ing the right to take all tests in a distraction-free envi- ing the total for these traditional disabilities to a skimpy ronment with extra time. At trial, he admitted that his 14 percent. attention deficit waxed and waned. When "something's The diagnosis of learning disability, by contrast, is very important to me," he explained at trial, he experiencing something of a boom. In the space of "forc[ed] [him]self to concentrate." Nodelman had a only a few years, the number of children diagnosed 3.6 GPA, had made the Dean's List and had taken his with Attention Deficit Disorder, reading disability and tests untimed in every class except Zen Guitar. math disability has swollen by hundreds of thousands. Perhaps the least compelling plaintiff was sophomore Of the 5.3 million handicapped children currently on AUGUST 25, 1997 THE NEW REPUBLIC 19 Individual Education Programs (specially. tailored, will annoy other people, blaming others for his or her often costly regimens of technology, therapy and one- own mistakes or misbehavior." Rates of up to 16 percent on-one tutoring that public schools are mandated to have been reported. provide to every child with a disability), the U.S. A tongue-tied toddler could have dysphasia, other- Department of Education estimates that just over half wise known as a "difficulty using spoken language to (51 percent) are learning-disabled. According to the communicate." Boorish behavior may be a sign of authors of the book Promoting Postsecondary Education dyssemia, defined as a "difficulty with signals [and] for Students with Learning Disabilities, up to 300,000 stu- social cues." (According to the Interagency Commission dents currently enrolled in college have proclaimed on Learning Disabilities, social skills are a domain in that they are learning-disabled and need special accom- which a learning disability can occur.) An even more modations. sinister malady is dysrationalia, defined in an October The National Collegiate Athletic Association, mean- 1993 issue of The Journal of Learning Disabilities as "a level while, is under intense legal pressure from the Justice of rationality, as demonstrated in thinking and behavior, Department to relax the initial eligibility standards that that is significantly below the level of the individual's require student athletes to get a cumulative score of intellectual capacity." A checklist of childhood precur- 700 on their SATs and to maintain at least a 2.0 grade sors include "premature closure, belief perseverance point average in core courses. These standards are resistance to new ideas, dogmatism about beliefs, and meant to offer a slight safeguard against the tendency lack of reflectiveness." of universities to enroll and graduate young men and women whose ability to pass a ball exceeds their ability hese neo-disabilities are likely to strike the non- to pass their courses. Not so fast, said Justice Depart- T specialist as an exercise in pathologizing child- ment lawyer Christopher J. Kuczynski. In a March 1996 hood behavior, and the nonspecialist would be letter to the NCAA, Kuczynski warned that the associa- on to something. Increasingly, scholars and tion's academic standards may "have the affect [sic] of clinicians in the field of learning disability are speaking excluding students with disabilities from participa- out against the dangers of promiscuous diagnosis of dis- tion in college athletics." NCAA spokesman Kevin ablement. "In the space of twenty years, American psy- Lennon says the association is in the process of revising chiatry has gone from blaming Johnny's mother to its policy "to accommodate students with learning dis- blaming Johnny's brain," says Dr. Lawrence Diller, an abilities." assistant clinical professor of behavioral pediatrics at the University of California at San Francisco. The problem, he most common estimate cited by advocacy says Dr. Diller, is that in a variant of the Lake Woebe- T groups and frequently repeated in government gone effect, "Bs and Cs have become unacceptable to documents is that between 15 and 20 percent of the middle classes. Average is a pejorative." And yet, as the general population have learning disabili- he points out, "someone has got to be average." ties. Any hypochondriac can test himself: in a recent Some scholars have even begun to question the booklet, the American Council on Education supplies a notion that there is such a thing as a learning disability. checklist of symptoms for adults who suspect they may In a recently published book, Off Track, one of its be learning-disabled. Some of us will be disturbed to authors, Robert Sternberg, a Yale professor of psychol- recognize in the checklist possible symptoms. of our ogy and education, presents a powerful case for why the own: according to the council, telltale signs of adult concept of learning disability ought to be abandoned. learning-disablement include "a short attention span," Drawing on the latest research into the physiology of the impulsivity, "difficulty telling or understanding jokes," human brain, Sternberg argues that there is no evi- "difficulty following a schedule, being on time, or meet- dence to support the view that children who are labeled ing deadlines" and "trouble reading maps." as learning-disabled have an immutable neurological As the ranks of the learning-disabled swell, so too do disability in learning. From a medical standpoint, he the number of boutique diagnoses. Trouble with num- writes, there is no scientific proof that children labeled bers could signal dyscalculia, a crippling ailment that as learning-disabled actually have a discernible biologi- prevents one from learning math. Lousy grammar may cal ailment "in terms of the underlying cognitive abili- stem from the aforementioned dysgraphia, a disorder of ties related to reading." Says Sternberg: "I'm not written expression. Dozing in class is evidence of la- denying that there are dramatic disparities in the speed tent'ADD, perhaps even ADHD (Attention Deficit/Hyper- with which people learn But, most of the time, what activity Disorder). Many tykes also exhibit the telltale you're talking about here is a garden-variety poor symptoms of ODD-Oppositional Defiant Disorder. reader. You're talking about someone who happens to According to the American Psychiatric Association, the be not very good in math." defining feature of ODD is "a recurrent pattern of nega- To bei sure, there is no question that children who are tivistic, defiant, disobedient, and hostile behavior intellectually normal, and sometimes even unusually characterized by the frequent occurrence of at least four bright, can have genuine, serious difficulties in learning of the following behaviors: losing temper, arguing with how to read or to do math; and that educators should adults, actively defying or refusing to comply with the do everything in their power to put these students back requests or rules of adults, deliberately doing things that on track developmentally. But as their clinics swarm with 20 THE NEW REPUBLIC AUGUST 25, 1997 hordes of pushy parents and catatonic collegians, all dents' scores by an average of 100 points, according to hankering for a diagnosis of intractable infirmity, a the College Board. In the last couple of years, testing growing number of diagnosticians are crying foul. "The agencies have been bombarded with requests from stu- way the diagnoses [of Attention Deficit Disorder and dents who proclaim that they are learning-disabled and learning disabilities] are being used right now, a back- will therefore need additional time. According to Kevin lash against the conditions is inevitable," says Diller. Gonzales, a spokesman for the Educational Testing Ser- "We've created a paradox where the more problems you vice, 18,000 learning-disabled examinees received "spe- have, the better off, you may be. That's a prescription for cial administration" for the SAT in 1991-92. By 1996-97, societal gridlock." that number had more than doubled, to 40,000. It's no puzzle, of course, why the learning-disability Requests for accommodation on Advanced Placement movement insists that learning disability is an exams, meanwhile, have. quadrupled-in 1996, 2,244 immutable, brain-based disorder-a malady that is "fun- learning-disabled eggheads took their A.P. tests damentally neurological in origin," according to the untimed. To reap the benefits of this particularly useful National Center for Learning Disabilities. For it is this perk, ETS requires only a letter of verification from a understanding of learning disability that justifies its school special education director or a state-licensed psy- inclusion as a protected category under the ADA. If chologist or psychiatrist. learning disability is an innate neurological defect that Certification and licensure exams-long, carefully "artificially" lowers test performance, then it follows that standardized examinations that function as gatekeepers learning-disabled individuals should be able to take into the professions-are also under assault. In 1995, tests under special conditions that will neutralize the the National Board of Medical Examiners administered effects of this handicap. In Help Yourself: Advice for over 450 untimed Medical College Admissions Tests-a College-Bound Students With Learning Disabilities, author fivefold increase from 1990. Lawyers, too, are request- Erica-lee Lewis stresses that asking for an untimed ing special dispensation. This year, in New York alone, administration of your SATs "does NOT give you an more than 400 aspiring attorneys have asked to take unfair advantage; it just reduces the unfair disadvantage the bar exam untimed. "The requests have increased by providing you with equal access and opportunity. You tremendously," says Nancy Carpenter, who heads up the deserve that and the law protects you against anything New York Board of Legal Examiners. "ADD is becom- short of that fairness!" ing much more common. We have a lot of dysgraphia. Some dyscalculia. Most applicants just say, 'unspeci- here's just one tiny problem: the two major fied learning disability.' They are all over the lot." T studies on the subject say that precisely the ETS officials do not like to talk about the Willingham opposite is true. As Dr. Warren W. Willingham, and Ragosta studies. Indeed, far from planning to a psychometrician-with the Educational Testing toughen up its accommodations policy, the agency Service, points out in his widely respected textbook seems poised to eliminate its only check on spurious Testing Handicapped Students, institutions have long claims-the marking, or "flagging" of a score to indicate relied on standardized tests because such tests, for all that an applicant took the test under nonstandard con- their faults, tend to be highly reliable in their esti- ditions. For years, the learning-disability industry has mation of how well a particular applicant will actually railed against the asterisk, arguing that it violates a stu- perform in college or on the job. The case of learning- dent's right to keep his or her disability a secret. Now disabled students, in contrast, "presents a very differ- ETS seems prepared to agree. "We are taking a good, ent picture," writes Willingham. When students diag- hard look at the whole issue of flagging," says ETS's nosed with learning disabilities were allowed to take the newly appointed director of disability services, Loring SAT on an untimed or extended-time basis, the "col- Brinckerhoff. "I'm not prepared to say it's going to go lege grades of learning-disabled students were subs- away overnight. My gut feeling is that it may well be a tantially overpredicted," suggesting that "providing Section 504 violation." Yes, that's the same Loring longer amounts of time may raise scores beyond the Brinckerhoff who recently resigned under pressure by level appropriate to compensate for the disability." The Jon Westling from his B.U. sinecure. "Isn't it ironic,". other study-by Marjorie Ragosta, one of ETS's own muses Brinckerhoff. "I'm told by Boston University that researchers-confirms Willingham's pessimistic diag- I'm unqualified to do my job. Yet here I am-at the nosis. biggest testing agency in the world-determining Both researchers raise a troubling question: whether, accommodations for hundreds of thousands of people as Willingham puts it, "the nonstandard version of the with disabilities." SAT is seriously biased in favor of [learning-disabled] students." The concern is not just theoretical. There is f course, a legally recognized disability means reason to suspect that fast-track students, and their par- ents, have figured out that a little learning disability can O more than just extra time on tests-or even extra privileges in the classroom. Under the be an advantageous thing-can make the difference, in Individuals With Disabilities Education Act, a a hypercompetitive setting, between getting into (and diagnosis of L.D. also qualifies a child for an Individual getting successfully out of) the right school. The privi- Education Program-a handcrafted educational pro- lege of taking the SAT on an untimed basis raises stu- gram, replete with techno-goodies and other kinds of AUGUST 25, 1997 THE NEW RÉPUBLIC 21 specialized attention. The law, which states that "all chil- numerous handicaps had made Michael eligible for a dren with disabilities" ought to have available to them "a generous dose of special-education services. Under the free and appropriate public education," encourages par- terms specified in his IEP, Michael received three and ents to be bound not by what the school district can three-eighths hours a week of special tutoring; extra offer, but by what they think their child needs. It specifies time on homework assignments and tests; "allowance of that, in the event that the parents don't care for their standing up, stretching and/or walking around in class"; child's IEP, the local school district must convene a "an "permission to chew gum or hard candy to help him impartial due process hearing"-a trial-like proceeding concentrate and focus"; "seat assignments in close prox- in which both parties have the right to be represented by imity to the teacher"; and "access to a tape recorder, a lawyer, the right to subpoena, confront and cross- transcripts of lectures, outlines and notes and/or a lap- examine witnesses, and the right to present evidence. If a top computer if needed." Now Mr. and Mrs. F. wanted school district loses the due process hearing, it must pay even. more. Michael's low grade on his Honors Geome- the parents' attorneys' fees. The result, says Raymond try midterm, they argued at the hearing, revealed evi- Bryant, director of special education for Maryland's dence of a new, previously unsuspected disability Montgomery County public schools, has left school dis- "with the concepts of quadratic equations and the tricts vulnerable to parental tactics bordering on extor- Pythagorean theorem." They blamed the school for tion. "It used to be that kids didn't try hard enough, or numerous "procedural violation[ including "failure didn't work hard enough," says Bryant. "Now, it's ADD or to pursue a math reevaluation of Michael" after the L.D They want their child to read half the material. received a 65 on his midterm. Now, they said, their son They want him to do half the homework. They don't would experience "substantial regression" over the sum- want him to take the same tests. But guess what? They mer, unless his high school saw fit to furnish him with want him to get the same grades!" "extended summer programming in the form of math tutoring." n prosperous, sun-dappled school districts around This, the hearing officer would not do. True, she I the country, exotic new learning disabilities are wrote, Michael's poor showing on his geometry popping up, each requiring its own costly cure. In midterm might well be "related to his learning dis- Orange County, where "executive function disor- ability and/or ADD." On the other hand, she bold- der" (difficulty initiating, organizing and planning ly ventured, it could also be that "math remains a sub- behavior) reigns, parents have begun demanding that ject where Michael will not receive As in an Honors schools foot the bill for horseback riding lessons. "This track." is now supposed to be the way to help kids with EFD," says Peter Hartman, superintendent of the Saddleback nsconced in his pleasantly stuffy office, an Unified School District. "There's some stable in the E Anglophile's fantasy of elephant ear plants and area that they all go to." In Holliston, Massachusetts, bas-relief cornucopias in carved wood, Jon parents of children with Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Westling awaits the decision of Judge Patti B. Disorder hanker for a trendy new treatment called Saris. He is resigned to the knowledge that, whatever "educational kinesthesiology," a sort of kiddie Pilates is decided, the learning-disabled activists and their for angst-ridden tots. "Unfortunately, the treatment can supporters will regard him as a villain. "This is a cause only be done by a, quote, licensed educational kines- where the support and commitment verges almost on thesiologist," sighs Margaret Reed, special-ed adminis- fanaticism," he says, puffing on one Marlboro Light, trator for Holliston Public Schools. "And it seems then another. "And whenever you have less than ideal there's only one in the district. And she charges $50 an science coupled with something close to fanaticism, hour." you can move beyond appropriate use into areas of Sometimes, it seems, the problem is less inattentive abuse." children than overattentive parents, many of whom are The students say that, whatever the outcome, the liti- unwilling to believe their progeny is less than perfect. gation has salved their faltering self-esteem. Ben Freed- Consider the case of Michael F., whose plight was man, a 21-year-old senior who has maintained a 3.6 thrashed out at length at a 1996 hearing after his parents GPA despite a reading and writing disability and dys- expressed discontent with his Individual Education Pro- graphia, likens his crusade to the civil rights movement gram. Michael, then a ninth grader, was thriving at his of the 1960s. "I don't want to compare myself to Dr. high school-earning As in honors courses and demon- King, but there are great similarities," he says. strating "overall cognitive functioning in the very supe- Anne Schneider, too, says she's achieved closure on rior range (99th percentile)." He had also written a the whole regrettable incident. To the true believers, it book, played in the school band and, according to the seems, there's an explanation for everything; and it's hearing officer, "successfully completed bar mitzvah usually the same explanation. "I've been thinking about training." Jon Westling," she tells me one evening. "For all his At the hearing, it emerged that Michael did all of this bragging about his Rhodes scholarship, he didn't do while fighting off the ravages of "attention deficit disor- the final paper. He's not a finisher." Schneider lets out der, language-based specific learning disabilities, neuro- a reflective sigh. "To tell the truth," she says; "I've motor dysfunction, and tactile sensitivity." These always thought: learning disability." 22 THE NEW REPUBLIC AUGUST 25, 1997 CITY BOOS TIME NATION RS By ADAM COHEN INDIANAPOLIS TEPHAN FANTAUZZO, HEAD OF Indiana's public-employee S union, has seen a lot over the years, but nothing beats the day his auto mechanics came to MARK FOR TIME him and said they didn't want their raises. Indianapolis had just put out to competitive bid- ding the business of repairing city vehicles, Anew breed of and that meant his workers had to bid against private companies to keep their activist mayors jobs. Fantauzzo's workers were worried that they, would be underbid. So they gave up their pay raises-and narrowly won the ismaking City contract. The competition has brought a new efficiency to the operation: costs are down 29%, turn-around time on repairs Hall a hothouse has improved markedly, and customer complaints have fallen more than 90%. At for innovation the same time, the workers have more than made up for their lost raises, averaging 5% Stephen Goldsmith salary hikes in each of the past four years, well above the city average. Says a once A pioneer in privatization, he has put skeptical Fantauzzo: "We found a way to more than 70 city services up for make this a win-win situation." competitive bids; mayors across the Auto repair is only one of more than 70 country are learning from his success municipal operations Indianapolis', Republi- can Mayor Stephen Goldsmith, the nation's The driving force behind this fresh ap- leading exponent of "competing out," has proach to urban government is a handful of spun off in five years in office. The city's "new pragmatist" mayors-Indianapolis' wastewater-treatment plants are being run Goldsmith, Cleveland's Michael White, Phila- by a private company, at a projected savings delphia's Edward Rendell, Milwaukee's John of $65 million over five years. Indianapolis In- Norquist, Chicago's Richard M. Daley and to ternational Airport is now run by the British some extent Los Angeles' Robert Riordan and Airport Authority, which promises it will save New York City's Rudolph Giuliani-who ac- $32 million over 10 years. Goldsmith even tively collaborate and compare notes on how managed to privatize Indianapolis' 2,200-job to make cities work. Goldsmith visits Giuliani Naval Air Warfare Center, which had landed every few months to talk shop; Rendell and on the Pentagon's base-closing list. With the Goldsmith bounce ideas off each other at fre- Federal Government's permission, he quent joint speaking appearances. And good brought in Hughes Technical Services to take practices, big or small, travel fast. "You learn a over the operation and sell products and ser- lot from each other," says Republican Rior- vices back to the Navy. dan, who used Indianapolis-style competing Indianapolis is hardly alone among out to award cleanup contracts after the 1994 cities that have been quietly putting the fash- Northridge, Calif., earthquake. Goldsmith is ionable buzz words "reinventing govern- using a silicone-based antigraffiti sealant he ment" into practice. Municipal government learned about from Daley. Says White: "If has long been regarded as the great back- there's anything that binds us, it's simply that water of American democracy: a world of we pride ourselves on being result-oriented." political patronage and special-interest jock- What makes these mayors' governmen- eying in which policy discussions rarely tal pragmatism possible is that they have also move beyond synchronizing traffic lights. developed a flexible, post-ideological ap- But a new breed of activist mayors, recently proach to politics. Cities that once thrived on hailed by the New Republic as "the Pride of straight-ticket Democratic machine politics, the Cities," has been turning city halls into where labor unions and social-welfare pro- MICHAEL ABRAMSON FOR TIME hothouses of governmental innovation. grams were considered untouchable, are led They are challenging entrenched interests today by some of the nation's most nonparti- and butting heads with traditional allies in san and politically unpredictable politicians. the pursuit of real reform: overhauling the On school vouchers Cleveland's White, an John Norquist school system in Chicago, reshaping labor- African-American Democrat, is sparring management relations in Philadelphia and with his city's traditionally Democratic privatizing municipal services all over. teachers' union and the N.A.A.C.P. Goldsmith The popular mayor has pushed unions to be more efficient, saying it's "an act of injustice" to waste taxes in a city where TIME, AUGUST 18, 1997 21 the average family income is $27,000 alienated his party's establishment by firing patronage appointees who stood in the way of his efforts to privatize: Says New York's Giuliani, a Republican who broke with his party by lobbying to save rent regulations: "It's better to keep your constituents happy than to keep a political party happy." So far, it's been a winning strategy: all these mayors have been re-elected handily, except Giu- liani-who is running this year and led his nearest rival by 23% in a recent poll. The new pragmatism is at least partly a response to economic necessity. Mayors are operating in an age of sharply limited re- sources. Federal aid to cities has fallen sharply in the past 20 years, and urban tax bases have eroded as businesses and affluent residents have fled to the suburbs. Since the mid-1970s, when New York and other big cities teetered on the brink of bankruptcy, mayors have had to work hard just to stay afloat: they literally can no longer afford to Michael White preside over bloated bureaucracies or cod- The hard-driving Democrat has adopted Few cities have viding basic services. Building on improve- dle unions at contract a business style of management to help been. more buffet- ments made by his predecessors in city hall time. "There's just a turn around a troubled city once ed by economic White has helped reverse Cleveland's slide different set of prob- dubbed "the Mistake by the Lake" forces than Cleve- The hard-driving mayor, who gets to city hall lems mayors are fac- land, whose hard before 7:30 a.m. and sometimes works past ing today," says Barnard College political times once earned it the nickname "the Mis- midnight, has adopted a business style of city science professor Ester Fuchs. "If they want take by the Lake." Cleveland has lost more management. "We serve a city of 500,000 to have cities at all, the name of the game is than 400,000 people, almost 45% of its pop- people a day," says White. "If we don't serve keeping their budgets balanced, keeping ulation, since mid-century, and in 1978 it be- them well, a lot of them are going to go the business community and the middle came the first major city to default on its somewhere else." The centerpiece of his class happy, and coming up with programs debts since the Great Depression. Along the strategy for improving service to his "cus- that work." way, city government all but stopped pro- tomers" is a 60-page "People's Budget," set- tourism and parks and recreation) remain under Barry Disaster on the Potomac: purview. Asked at a press conference what residents should do if they want to complain about potholes, Barry replied bitterly, How Not to Run a City Call Dr. Brimmer 504-3400. Other countries like to argue that Americans know nothing of life in the rest of the world Not so in the District, whose gov. OTHER CITIES MAY BOAST OF ernment seems to aspire to the standards of a Third World na innovative, hard-bargaining tion. Fecal matter in the water bodies piled and rotting in the mayors, but at least one un un air conditioned morgue; potholes that could kill if the stray ban center is clattering along bullets don t=these are familiar stories to District dwellers. A re injust the opposite direction. cent exposé in the Washington Post offered jaw-dropping's B Beset by financial woes, high tistics on the amount of wasted funds and government bloat crime and decaying city ser Washington spends more money and has more employees than vices, Washington has now any other city Yet the high school dropout rate has passed 50% Wrecked cars, wracked city suffered the indignity of hav crime is up 16% since 1991, and tuberculosis and infant-mortality ing its mayor, Marion S. Bar- rates are the highest in the nation. Just last week officials an ry, stripped of nearly all power As part of a $1 billion federal nounced that the city's public schools would open three weeks aid package included in the new budget agreement, nine of the late this fall because building repairs haven been finished. in city's major agencies, covering everything from schools and With such things to commend him, few believed Mayor Bar housing to public works and the police, have been taken away ry when he insisted that the congressional moves were not about from Barry and placed under the jurisdiction of a financial con Marion Barry. The mayor has turned the city into a machine that trol board, which was appointed by Congress two years ago to would impress Boss Tweed: jobs for all, and once hired, never* get the city finances in order and is headed by economist An- fired Money earmarked for services and repairs often found its to drew! Brimmer? Only relatively minor agencies (including way to payroll, to put yet more unskilled workers on the clock. Also 22 TIME, AUGUST 18, 1997 N ting out goals for the year and evaluating years ago by City and State magazine for build new school buildings and renovate old whether they have been met. The city has setting "the standard for municipal distress ones. The Daley regime's hard-hitting re- generally been able to give itself high marks: in the 1990s" now has a budget surplus of forms, which included cutting 1,700 non- the report card cites such achievements as $118.5 million. teaching jobs, are particularly impressive in 40% more dead trees removed in 1995 than a town where, in the days when Daley's fa- the year before and twice as many children LTHOUGH A LIBERAL DEMOCRAT, ther reigned as mayor and political boss, screened for lead poisoning. Milwaukee's Norquist has also politicians used to say that the purpose of Cleveland's problems are not all behind taken a tough line with city the public schools was to provide jobs for it, but under White's administration, there workers. He was faced a few the people who worked there. is a clear sense that the city is on an up- years ago with a standoff be- Critics of the new-style mayors say many swing. Downtown boasts not only a new tween his public-works and fire of their reforms are unproven. Goldsmith's $72 million light rail line to move tourists departments over the painting detractors say privatization projects such as along the lakeshore but also Gateway of firehouses. The fire depart- the wastewater-treatment plants may look Complex, which features a new baseball ment wanted the buildings painted in the better in press releases than in practice. "We stadium and a basketball arena that lured summer, when its trucks could easily be don't even know if we're saving any money," the Cleveland Cavaliers back from the sub- kept outside, but public works said too says City-County Councilor Susan Williams. urbs. Most important, the city's long period many of its people would be on vacation. "Every time I blink, it seems they want $10 of fiscal crisis has subsided. After a general Norquist allowed the fire department to en- million to fix this or $8 million to fix that." fund deficit that grew to almost $7 million gage a private contractor to get the project And handing over government operations to in 1990, the city has balanced its books and done in the summer. "The good news for the private sector can open the door to pa- has accumulated a rainy-day fund of $25 the public-works department is they tronage and other kinds of malfeasance, the million. Standard & Poor's, which suspend- learned from this and changed their proce- very reason the civil-service system was in- ed the city's bond rating after its 1978 bank- dures," says Norquist. "Competition didn't stituted more than a century ago. Indi- ruptcy, today gives the city an A. put them out of business, but it almost did." anapolis suffered through "golfgate" three A prime article of faith among the new In Chicago, Daley has taken on his city's years ago, when private operators of munic- mayors is that city employees must become most intractable problem: a $3 billion ipal golf courses were accused of improper- more efficient. Rendell, a Democrat and a school system that former U.S. Education ly handing out renovation contracts. When tough-talking former prosecutor, is widely Secretary William Bennett once called the Goldsmith made an unsuccessful run for credited with saving Philadelphia by going worst in the nation. Two years ago, Daley, a Governor last year, Democrats attacked him eyeball-to-eyeball with the city's powerful Democrat, convinced Illinois' Republican for accepting contributions from companies public-employee unions shortly after he state legislature to hand him authority over that had won contracts for city services. "Pri- took office in 1992. Rendell offered work- the schools. He ousted the city's entrenched vatization is just patronage in pinstripes," ers a contract that froze wages for 33 educational bureaucracy, installed a school says former Marion County Democratic months and cut back on paid holidays. Af- board that put nearly 20% of the schools on Party chairman Kipper Tew. ter a 16-hour strike, the unions capitulated. probation for low performance and got ap- To some, the new pragmatism is only a Under Rendell, a city that was cited five proval for $850 million in bond issues to pretext for tilting government away from the deterring change is the racial politics of the highly segregated city. NI can predict the effort, Brimmer says "It will be done For the mostly black District residents, Barry re elected in 1993 The federal takeover has roiled the city always testy po- despite serving jail time for crack use promised a toehold into the litical waters, inspiring loud public protests. So loud that middle class. "It's the ultimate patronage, says a D.C. Council se- Eleanor Holmes Norton the District's nonvoting representa- nior/aide If you have a government check, a refrigerator full of tive in Congress, did an about face: after first calling the deal a food, who cares about the pot- "big win, she denounced it as hole outside?' "too high a price. Meanwhile Onto this battlefield. steps Barry-whose popularity is so Brimmer, 71, a former Federal low that nearly 80% of resi- Reserve Board member Like dents say it satime for him to ry Brimmer is black, but go is using the setback to his there the similarities end. While advantage Democracy has Barry is fond of dashikis and been raped, he asserts, decry- bling rhetoric, Brimmer is as ing the white Republicans in precise and exacting as the cut of Congress-particularly North his charcoal-gray suit. He took Carolina Senator Lauch Fair- immediate action last week, fir- cloth- who spearheaded the ing three department chiefs and takeover: Says a congressional threatening that more heads aide: Faircloth doesn't realize will roll unless changes are that he just became treasurer to made Still, some are skeptical Marion Barry' pre-election of his ability to tackle a job akin campaign: By Tamala M. to fixing a plane while flying it. Edwards. With reporting by James "I can't predict the outcome, but Barry, before the takeover, meets with Norton in March Carney/Washington TIME, AUGUST 18, 1997 23 THE TIES THAT BINI Should breaking up be harder to do? The debate over easy divorce rages on By WALTER KIRN ents, she identified broken families as North Carolina jury added to the simmer, Public Enemy No. 1, responsible for a gen- ing debate by taking the side of an aban OW QUICKLY IN A FREE SOCI- eration of sad-and angry, underachieving doned wife, ordering the "other woman.", to youngsters. In a flash, Whitehead's point of H = ety controversy becomes con- pay her $1 million (see following story) sensus only to become contro- view won converts no less influential-and Though the decision was based on an an versy again when the new liberal-than Donna Shalala and Hillary tique "alienation of affection" law, it still conventional wisdom jells. Clinton, who in her book It Takes a Village sent chills through the country's Second Take the national debate wrote of feeling "ambivalent about no-fault Wives Club-and its associated husbands. about divorce. In 1992 Vice divorce when children are involved." Nevertheless, the worm has already be President Dan Quayle made It seemed that 1990s America was gun to turn again. Last winter, Whitehead his infamous Murphy Brown speech railing growing as disillusioned with divorce as expanded her essay into a book, The Divorce against single motherhood and was 1960s America had grown with marriage. As Culture, and all hell broke loose. A New York ridiculed by almost every social observer to the backlash against divorce progressed, Times reviewer dubbed Whitehead's trea- the left of Pat Robertson. Less than a year state legislatures across the country, in an as tise a "self-blame book" and mocked its later, social historian Barbara Dafoe yet unsuccessful attempt to reduce what scholarship. Esquire magazine ran the bold- Whitehead published an essay in the At- was still the world's highest divorce rate, face cover line DIVORCE IS GOOD FOR YOU. In lantic Monthly titled "Dan Quayle Was called for a rollback of no-fault divorce laws the New York Times, essayist Katha Pollitt Right." Citing studies that tracked the de- and even for premarital waiting periods. took on the new Louisiana law that created velopment of children raised by single par- Last week, in a melodramatic flourish, a "covenant marriage," a more binding vow 48 TIME, AUGUST 18, 1997 !CL SOCIETY tive of getting these issues on and is skeptical of mandatory counseling. the national-policy debate. I Divorced and quick to admit it, Pollitt says, N POLL: DIVORCE can tell you, though, there is "I had marital counseling. It is very expen- no indication that public atti- sive, and like all forms of therapy, it works believe it should be harder than it is tudes are swinging in a way only if you want to be there." married couples to get a divorce? consistent with this move." Pollitt sees an ulterior motive behind the Other academics agree with assault on no-fault divorce: a backlash 50% No 46% Bumpass. Stephanie Coontz, against feminism. While husbands once ini- who teaches family studies at tiated most divorces, the situation has re- it be harder than it is now for married Evergreen State College in versed itself: more wives now seek divorces. with young children to get a divorce? Olympia, Washington, de- And if you believe Ashton Applewhite, au- 61% No 35% rides the think-tank activists thor of Cutting Loose: Why Women Who End as old-fashioned social reac- Their Marriages Do So Well, divorce, though tionaries in disguise. "Divorce usually painful at first, is a true liberation for people be required to take a marriage- is the entering wedge for many wives. In her book, she profiles 50 course before they can get a these people. They found an women, including "Dina," an immigration lice ? issue that looked less mean attorney. The mother of two sons, Dina re- 64% No 34% than attacking unwed moms. grets agreeing to share custody with the chil- Everyone is against divorce in dren's father. Ultimately, though, she works the reason for the increase in the abstract, but in the con- things out, illustrating Applewhite's point of divorces? crete, they understand why that the key to successful postmarital par- particular people they know enting is flexibility. In Applewhite's view, di- seriously by couples 45% had to have a divorce." "These vorce can bring opportunities for personal more accepting of divorced people 15% think tanks know how to tap growth, particularly when that growth has into people's anxieties," says been thwarted by a suffocating union. to get divorced today 10% Arlene Skolnick, a research Whitehead, however, regards this are selfish 9% psychologist at the University promise of self-renewal through divorce as of California, Berkeley. "The the original sin of recent decades. She calls in women's and men's earning power 7% gap between the way we'd like the phenomenon "expressive divorce" and 9% families to be and the way locates its origins in postwar prosperity. they are creates a constant For Whitehead there's a close connection toothache that can be poked." between soaring divorce rates and middle- rease in the number is due more to: But Maggie Gallagher, class narcissism, and though divorce rates in women's attitudes toward marriage 38% who is affiliated with the Insti- have actually plateaued, the siren song of tute for American Values and is personal liberation sounds as sweet as in S attitudes toward marriage 18% the author of The Abolition of ever. Pollitt is contemptuous of the notion. 32% Marriage: How We Destroy She says, "The picture is that people are go- Lasting Love, rejects the ing along married and in a state of, if not ec- the government make it harder for charge that reforming divorce stasy, then reasonable content. And then to get a divorce? laws is a hothouse, right-wing somèbody decides to be selfish, frivolous issue. "The real reason that and pleasure seeking." 37% No 59% public opinion has changed is not because a small group of HIS IS THE DEBATE'S GREAT poll of 1,017 adult Americans taken for TIME/CNN on May by very clever people have been QUESTION, the one that keeps the Partners Inc. Sampling error is 3.1%. Not sures omitted. manipulating it but because as divorce ball bouncing: Does the more and more social-science high divorce rate reflect a mas- be ended only because of extreme data accumulated, a number of prominent sive cop-out by increasingly tances. "You don't have to be abused family scholars changed their minds. As self-indulgent individuals, or is yed," Pollitt declared, "to have a bad more ordinary Americans had actual expe- it based in vast social forces Earlier Pollitt had baldly asserted, rience of what happens with a 50% divorce such as the economic indepen- is an American value." Thus, in a rate, they too became concerned." dence of women? It's a question that can't backflip, the backlash against the Like adversaries in a divorce court, each be answered with statistics, though cer- against divorce is under way. side in the public-policy debate has its own tain experts try. According to sociologist I prefer a world in which there roster of expert witnesses and armory of ex- Bumpass, "There have been fluctuations divorce?" asks Larry Bumpass, a hibits. Divorce opponents including Gal- around the trend line, but the overall dy- at the University of Wisconsin. lagher and Whitehead point to the mountain namic that has given rise to increased di- iswer is an obvious yes. Do I think of evidence about the corrosive effects on vorce has deep historical roots." He takes a a. realistic policy objective? The children. But that research, say their critics, lofty, long view and tends to speak in ivory- is no." He contends that the antidi- is garbage. "You cannot compare the chil- tower mouthfuls, such as "the underlying ovement isn't a genuine movement dren of two-parent homes with children of individualism of modern industrial-market a think tank-inspired pseudois- divorce," argues Pollitt. "You have to com- society." Which isn't to say he doesn't have points to the role being played by pare the children of divorce with the chil- common sense. Almost alone among the like the Institute for Ameri- dren of people in marriages that are dread- debaters, Bumpass detects a self-regulat- and its offshoot, the Council on ful but continuing." She dismisses the list of ing mechanism in the nation's experience "They have a very explicit objec- remedies offered by the antidivorce crowd with divorce. "It's quite possible that co- TIME, AUGUST 18, 1997 49 NATION VIEWPOINT George J. Church CHUCK KENNEDY FOR TIME Robin Hood in Reverse The poor shouldn't pay my pension-but they will VERY TIME I SEE A COOK FLIPPING BURGERS OR A CLEANING WOMAN EMP E tying the trash baskets, I wonder if I can resist the temptation to rob them Nobody would stop me. In fact, the government wants me to do it. How? Just quit working. I'm nearly 66 and retired, but I earn too much now as a writer to qualify for a Social Security pension. If I were to loaf full time, however, I could collect about $15,000 a year. I don't need or even want it. A company pension, plus income from savings and investments, should keep me and my wife in comfort for however long we live. But even if I resist the temptation until 2001, I can then expect a letter urging me to apply for a Social Security pension. After age 70, there are no more Edward Rendell restrictions: I'll be entitled to Social Security checks even if I'm still working. Officially, I've earned them by paying Social Security taxes for 44-plus years. A former prosecutor, he took a tough Balderdash. Those taxes wouldn't defray my pension for more than a few years- line with municipal unions and endured and they've already been used to pay the pensions of those who retired years a strike. His formerly distressed city now boasts a budget surplus and years ago. My pension, in fact, will be paid by people still on the job. That points up one of the great inequities purposely ignored in the recent budget agreement. The working poor continue to pay far more than their fair poor and racial minorities. In Cleveland, share of the Social Security tax. That tax is levied-at a current rate of 6.2%-on White's housing program has drawn criti- only the first $65,400 of income, so those cism for its focus on building $100,000-to- who earn more pay much less than 6.2% $200,000 homes in neighborhoods where of their total earnings. The working the median cost of a house is $35,000 and the poor pay the full 6.2% on every cent of poverty rate is 41%. Williams, who repre- their meager wages. And this is a mer- sents a poor Indianapolis district, says her ciless tax-no exemptions, no deduc- constituents are too often left out of Gold- tions, no credits. (One excep- smith's market analyses. "An inner-city tion in the new tax bill: the swimming pool shouldn't be a profit center," working poor will get the she argues. City halls are lowering expecta- $500-a-child credit. Big deal.) tions, says Barnard's Fuchs, because the Taxing the poor to give to the money and political will for antipoverty pro- rich throws Robin Hood grams are just no longer there. "It's not into reverse. about doing more with less," she says. "It's That should be a prob- about doing less with less." lem for the nation's con- Indeed, there are limits to what even science as well as mine. the most pragmatic mayors can do for cities Government programs are today, despite the most robust national shot through with benefits for economy in decades. The harsh truth is that those who don't need them. Yet any pro- even the best-managed big cities have prob- posal to institute a means test is either ignored or lems too large to solve on their own. Just as howled down. Example: Medicare premiums are the same for me as for some- Philadelphia has emerged from its gloom, it one with a fraction of my income. But the Senate's proposal to make affluent se- is facing the loss of $2.3 billion in welfare, niors pay more was dropped from the tax bill, largely because House Republi- Medicaid and other social programs over cans feared a savage attack from Democrats. the next five years. As many as 40,000 wel- Why is this? One excuse is that the well off and the middle class must be fare recipients could lose their benefits by bribed to allow the government to do anything for the poor. For instance, they the year 2000, and Rendell estimates that will not support subsidized school lunches for poor kids unless their own chil- incentives to private industry will produce dren also get cheap food. But the real reason is that everyone who gets a gov- jobs for only 4,000 of them. Claiming that ernment benefit comes to regard it as a sacred right that must never be tak- the federal cutbacks are "a runaway freight en away. Or reduced. Or even increased less rapidly. Witness the screaming train headed our way," Rendell traveled to after a panel of economists suggested the consumer price index overstates in-2 Washington this spring to urge the White flation. Why? Adjusting the index would lead to smaller future increases in ben- House and Congress to help out by enacting efits (including Social Security) tied to the CPI. Monstrous! To the barricades! a jobs bill. It is unlikely that federal relief Benefits thus must go on increasing, needed or not, even if they drive the will come anytime soon. Still, articulating the limits of what city government can ac- programs paying the benefits (Social Security, Medicare) toward bnkruptcy. Moreover, there is not the slightest sign this mind-set will change. So maybe I complish is sometimes the most pragmatic step of all. should collect that pension after all. It's robbery, and I know it. But why should -With reporting by Erik Gunn/ I be the only sap who spurns a share of the loot? Milwaukee and Kevin Fedarko/Cleveland 24 TIME, AUGUST 18, 1997 SOCIETY habitation is, in a sense, pruning off di- vention in Washington, "Smart Marriages, an earlier time, the current soul search vorces that would otherwise have OC- Happy Families," therapists from around about divorce owes its existence to curred. You have what a colleague of mine the world gathered to share findings and hang-loose 70s. If mistakes have calls premarital divorces." techniques. Some events, like the lecture made, who's to say that we can't learn By encouraging. couples to marry less on "Hot Monogamy," were reminiscent of them without resorting to blunt reversals hastily and keeping them frightened and a Reader's Digest article. Other ideas, such policy and nasty ideological pur honest when they do wed, the high divorce as church-based programs that ask engaged Looked at from ground level, away from rate may be, paradoxically, its own anti- couples to fill out marital "inventories," clamor of dueling research studies dote. Revising no-fault divorce laws could seemed promisingly pragmatic. The pre- butting talking heads, the idea that divores be irrelevant and mandatory counseling re- sent is always struggling against the past. could prove a friend to marriage has the dundant, especially when one considers Much as the laid-back breakups of 20 years likely ring of truth. -Reported by the boom in voluntary counseling. At a con- ago arose from the hard-bitten marriages of King/Washington and Andrea Sachs/New York An Antique Law Sends Tremors Through Many a Heart AST WEEK, WHEN A NORTH CAROLINA WOMAN, SUCCESS South Carolina-have there been successful suits in recent fully sued her husband's lover for wrecking their mar- years, and no verdict within memory anywhere close to last riage, it gave the current national recalculation of the week's million award After a seven-day trial, the jury de- costs of divorce a new bottom line. Lawyers have a word liberated for just three hours before making its ruling. To for it. They call these "heart-balm" cases, the heart being the Dorothy; who receives child support and is seeking alimony, injured party, the balm in this case a cool, soothing $1 million. the verdict is assurance that people around this county are The melodrama was set in Burlington, N.C., a small town saying to me, You were right to stand up for yourself, and say about 20 miles from Greensboro, where Dorothy Hutelmyer ing to the other person, You were wrong in what you did was twice president of the PTA, her husband Joseph coached breaking up my family baseball and ran Seaboard Underwriters, and Lynne Cox Cox who is now Mrs. Hutelmyer herself-she married worked as his secretary. The Hutelmyers was a storybook mar Joseph this year the jury merely chose to ignore her side riage says Dorothy's lawyer of the story She has never Jim Walker. "He wrote poet- denied that she and Joseph ry to her love songs had an affair; but the idea But then, as a parade of that he had been happily witnesses testified, along married before she came came Lynne Cox, freshly di- along is "ludicrous and ab- vorced and newly reborn in surd The two of them had makeup and contacts and not had any physical rela- short skirts. She was soon tionship in over seven years spending more time alone If my husband had not and on the road with her made love to me in seven boss, and admits to having years, I would think there an affair with him Thus was a problem. were laid out the precondi Will Dorothy ever collect tions for an alienation of af- $1 million from her? Are your fection suit, a rare legal re kidding?" says Lynne. 8 course for spurned spouses make $425 a month. I'm a that only a handful of states ALIENATION: Dorothy, with Joseph in happler times, left, and smiling full time student I clean an still recognizes: last week after the $1 million verdict against the other woman office building part time to In order to prevail in court, a plaintiff needs to show that have some pin'money. Do you think she going to get $1 mil- the marriage was perking along.quite contentedly until a lion? Lown no property. I have no savings Nor does she have wanton intruder came along to wreck it. The complaint money to fight the ruling. My attorney's fees are in excess of charges that Dorothy enjoyed the "love, society, companion $14,000. I'd love to appeal, but there's nothing I can do. ship, support, affection, right of consortium and kindly of While the verdict may have come as balm to the hearts fices' of Joseph until Cox intentionally, wrongfully and un of desperate summer talk-show hosts, spurned spouses and justifiably and with malice alienated and destroyed a love and anti-divorce activists, it's unlikely to start a trend. The vast affection that previously existed majority of states that have rejected such suits aren't likely to 300 If the language sounds archaic, it matches the spirit of the start allowing them again, says Professor Dan Subotnik of law; such suits date back at least to 18th century common law, Touro Law Center in New York. As for Dorothy's sweet re: when wives were viewed as property, and stealing a wife was venge, the new Mrs. Hutelmyer claims to feel no rancor. akin to cattle. rustling. In this century, as women gained feel sorry for her. she says Until she can acknowledge that greater legal and financial independence, most states threw she shares in the responsibility of the breakdown of that mar out their alienation of affection statutes; in only a few conser riage she can never get on with her life By Nancy Glbbs. vative states-including Missouri, Mississippi, North and Reported by Andrea Sachs/New York 50 TIME, AUGUST 18, 1997 ON POLITICS BY MATTHEW MILLER Little baby steps hen President Clinton recently toasted the bipartisan private coverage. Some bosses promptly. stopped providing W budget deal, its expanded health coverage was coverage; some employees switched to Medicaid because its among his proudest boasts. "It's a victory," he said of benefits were more generous. the agreement, "for every child in a poor household State governments compound this problem. Many observers who needs health care." expect governors to use fresh federal dollars in lieu of state Actually, it's more like every fifth child. The budget deal's money they now spend themselves covering needy kids. By sav- provision of $24 billion over five years to cover uninsured kids ing the states health care money, the health initiative would is the biggest such effort since Medicaid was created in 1965- end up, for all practical purposes, being a federal supplement yet for all the celebration, experts say for general state expenses like road the package will probably end up in- repair and prison building. suring fewer than 20 percent of the The problem is it's hard to reach nation's 10 million uncovered chil- those who need public help without dren. Dissecting this disappointment attracting those already covered. The helps explain why "incremental" Clinton administration did the best it health reform-the only kind politi- could. But the strange solution it had cians dare endorse after Clinton's to devise was to offer lousy benefits. grand fiasco of 1993-94-is even The Clinton kiddie-care package is more incremental than it sounds, thus intentionally less generous than thanks to the peculiar economics of Medicaid and many private plans. American health care. Under Medicaid, for example, most In theory, insuring kids should be states include extra screening, test- both politically popular and cheap. A ing, and vision and dental benefits. decent benefit package runs just The administration plan doesn't. And $1,200 a year, versus $6,500 for sen- unlike Medicaid, the new plan will re- iors, who tend to get sick more often quire copayments and deductibles and more seriously. The new budget's that could reach 5 percent of income. $5 billion yearly for children's health The theory is that only those who should therefore insure about 4.2 really need coverage will sign up. million new kids. (Clinton claims There's evidence this "cruel to be cover "up to 5 million," harmless kind" approach works: Experts say it rounding up, it would seem.) helped Florida and Minnesota be In reality, it will probably cover more cost effective when expanding only 2 million, according to the Con- kids' coverage in recent years. gressional Budget Office. That's be- Children's health care is politically popular. Having to worry that good benefits cause of our byzantine system of can backfire and leave fewer Ameri- health finance. Unlike nations such cans insured is just part of the fun of as Canada, which basically has one Why the biggest health care incremental health reform. Mean- public source of health funding, the while, the trends that plagued health United States has both private and initiative in decades won't care back when Clinton sought more- public insurers, and both state and ambitious fixes are getting worse. federal governments sharing the bills. end up covering most kids There are 40 million uninsured This means that when the federal gov- Americans, more than when Clinton ernment moves to subsidize health called for universal coverage in 1993; care, that new money, instead of being added to other health their ranks are growing by a million a year, as companies out- spending, typically displaces some of it. The reasons are sim- source or turn to temps to avoid paying for benefits. Though ple. If you're a business owner, it's only common sense to drop cost growth has abated recently, thanks to managed care, insurance for employees newly eligible to get it from the gov- most experts expect costs to take off again soon, driven by new ernment. If you're an individual who buys your own insurance, health technologies and the aging population. And managed you also would be wise to let the government pay instead. care is squeezing hospitals in ways that make it harder for Repercussions. These kinds of individual decisions have them to treat uncovered folks free as a last resort. enormous cumulative impact. When Medicaid, the health pro- Liberals comfort themselves by viewing Clinton's latest win gram once offered only to welfare recipients, started covering on children's coverage as a step in the right direction. Still, pregnant women and children in low-income, working fam- some fret, only in America would an activist president aim to ilies in the late 1980s and early 1990s, economists found be- cover just half of uninsured kids-and then celebrate a "vic- tween 30 and 50 percent of the "newly" insured already held tory" likely to reach fewer than half that many. 22 U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT. AUGUST 18 / AUGUST 25, 1997 ON CULTURE BY ARIANNA HUFFINGTON Peppermint Prozac S your daughter depressed about acne? Soon, you may be abuse. It is our job as parents to help our kids navigate life's able to take her to a dermatologist for peppermint-flavored emotional roller coaster. Their mental health depends not Prozac. Is your son blue over an ingrown toenail? Take only on their life experiences-good and bad-but on how they him to a podiatrist for some antidepressants. Is he angry learn to cope with them. about having to wear braces? His orthodontist may soon be Children behave notoriously in line with the expectations of handing out pills along with a dinosaur toothbrush. the adults around them. If we think they can't cope without a Already, at least 580,000 children are being prescribed anti- pill, they will grow up believing that. If we teach our children depressants-and those numbers are likely to increase dramat- that pills will make them feel better, how can we then tell them ically. For now, doctors can prescribe not to try a joint or a few drinks to lift CHIP STONE IMAGES Prozac to kids but Eli Lilly, which manu- their spirits? factures the drug, can't market it as a It may not be long before stressed children's remedy. According to the parents and teachers, bombarded with Medical Sciences Bulletin, however, "the ads promising immediate relief for FDA is currently evaluating Prozac for their-kids-and themselves-will turn use as an antidepressant in children." If to Prozac with alarming frequency. For- the FDA gives its blessing, Eli Lilly will ty percent of American children live be free to peddle "children's" Prozac- without a father in the house. How especially now that the FDA is about to tempting antidepressants will seem to clear the way for TV advertising of pre- those overwhelmed mothers. scription drugs. The company already One psychologist, Barbara Ingersoll, has on the market a peppermint-fla- recently proclaimed that before long vored version of Prozac. And where Pro- "mood disorders will be treated not as zac leads, other antidepressants, such as exotic, uncommon conditions in chil- Zoloft and Paxil, are sure to follow. dren but more like [cavities] or poor vi- Doctors may prescribe antidepres- sion There won't be a stigma for kids sants to children without any psychiat- on Prozac-the stigma will be on not ric evaluation. Yet the symptoms used taking Prozac." In the past, the upper to identify depression in a recent Prozac classes typically dealt with the stresses ad range from feeling "unusually sad or of childhood by sending their kids to irritable" to finding it "hard to concen- boarding school. Now, instead of being trate." I have two healthy little girls, sent to Hotchkiss, children can be ages 6 and 8, both of whom have experi- transported to Camp Prozac. enced these symptoms. Indeed, I don't There are so many forces pushing us know any normal children who haven't. to accelerate the use of antidepressants No doubt there are children and teen- Will Prozac be used for childhood blues? for children. But we need to slow down. agers who could genuinely benefit from "Children are so vulnerable," says Mi- antidepressants. But it's easy to see how chael Faenza, president and CEO of the millions might wind up taking antide- Overprescribing anti- National Mental Health Association. pressants as a false cure for childhood "We don't have a good body of research and adolescence. One father in South- depressants to kids is a yet about how antidepressants will af- ern California wrote to me recently to fect them long term." Even in Aldous say that one of his son's friends is on form of child abuse. Huxley's Brave New World, Soma-the antidepressants "because her parents drug that kept everyone manageably are 'too strict' and she is depressed at not numb-wasn't put in the kids' bottles. being able to do what other kids do." Here is a modest solution. Until much more is known about A passing cloud. Signs of depression may be nothing more the effects of antidepressants on children's brains, why can't than a passing cloud-or an indication of unresolved grief and doctors simply refuse to prescribe the drugs without a full psy- loss. A doctor spending a few minutes with a child cannot pos- chiatric evaluation? Since Eli Lilly claims to be concerned pri- sibly know the difference. "It's part of the human condition to marily with the mental health of its customers-as opposed to feel crummy if something bad is happening in one's life," says opening an enormous new market for Prozac-company exec- Harold Koplewicz, vice chairman of psychiatry at the New utives would no doubt agree to such a restriction. And if they York University Medical Center. "But that is very different find that pill too hard to swallow, maybe the FDA could give it from having a clinical disorder." to them in a nice peppermint-flavored version. Indeed, substituting the quick fix of a drug for the often frustrating reality of parenting can be a subtle form of child Arianna Huffington is a nationally syndicated columnist. 28 U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, AUGUST 18 / AUGUST 25, 1997 EDITORIAL BY MORTIMER B. ZUCKERMAN / EDITOR-IN-CHIEF Attention must be paid New evidence for an old truth: Babies need love that money can't buy ater than I might have expected, I have begun later intelligence and economic and social success. L learning about parenthood firsthand. On July 7, This should be hopeful news, for it suggests that rich Abigail Jane Zuckerman was born. Now I under- possibilities are open to every child. But the same research stand what all the excitement has been about. shows that verbal stimulation differs by income and edu- Looking at a newborn in her crib, anyone must have a cation. On average, the child of professional parents hears sense of the many things that have been determined about 2,100 words an hour; of working-class parents, about her life, by genes and circumstance, but also of the 1,200 words. Parents on welfare speak only about 600 countless decisions and shaping experiences that lie words an hour. Professional parents give their children ahead. Parents of every era have worried about making emotional encouragement 30 times an hour-twice as these choices in the right way. Recent scientific findings often as the working-class baby and five times as often as give new reason for concern-in the welfare baby. This word play is particular, about whether children so important that those left behind can thrive under the modern belief When babies at age 2 may never catch up. that parents can contract out their These findings come when many basic responsibilities for care. are cared for by subscribe to the notion that there is Every day a newborn baby's brain no harm in a mother's leaving her is developing with phenomenal caring adults, baby in someone else's care and re- speed. Billions of nerve cells-neu- turning to work. More than half of rons-are growing and specializing. they become much all mothers are back at work before By age 2, the number of synapses, or their baby is 1. The working mother connections among the neurons, better learners is a fundamental feature of this era. approaches adult levels, and by age But what will parents do when they 3 a child's brain has 1 quadrillion learn that absence in the first three such connections. The synapses are years may have a significant effect the basic tools of processing within the brain. After this on their baby's future? Most working parents know in early spurt of rapid growth, they are then selectively their hearts that "quality time" is no substitute for quanti- pruned, enabling the brain to form physical "maps" that ty time-the time that a child requires for emotional and, allow communication and learning to take place. Accord- it now seems, intellectual development. ing to recent findings, the neuron links that are the keys What children need is the touching, holding, cooing, to creativity and intelligence in later life are mainly laid rocking, and stimulation that come traditionally from a down by the age of 3. mother. In some households a stay-at-home father will Is inherited ability the main factor in establishing fill the role of the absentee mother, but that is rare. In these connections? Apparently,not. Interactions with an most families, if it is not the mother spending those three attentive adult-in most cases, a mother-matter most. years with an infant, it will be a baby sitter or day-care The sight, sound, touch, smell, and, especially, the in- worker. Often there are class, educational, and-increas- tense involvement, through language and eye contact, of ingly-language differences between the parents and the parent and child affect the number and sophistication of hired caretaker. Parents are therefore going to be chal- links within the brain. These neural patterns-again, set lenged to find a better balance between raising. their by age 3-seem to be more important than factors we children and working, especially parents who are too usually emphasize, such as gender and race. In their tired and emotionally drained to give children the stimu- book Meaningful Differences in the Everyday Experience lus and engagement they need. When babies are cared of Young American Children, professors Todd Risley and for by caring adults, they become much better learners Betty Hart say that the number of words an infant hears and are much more confident to take over the world. each day may be the single most important predictor of Attention is the greatest gift that parents can bestow. I 92 U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, AUGUST 18 / AUGUST 25, 1997