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5557
DOMESTIC POLICY COUNCIL
04/09/98
14:21
FAX
202
456
veri,
202 622 1452
P.02/09
OF
SEAL
TREASURY
DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20220
17A4
February 1998
Youth Firearm Violence
Key Facts
Patrick M. Bell, Policy Advisor,
Office of the Under Secretary for Enforcement
Department of the Treasury
Although firearm deaths began decreasing in 1994, both the number and rate of deaths from
firearm violence for those 19 and under remain at historic highs. While the number of firearm
deaths for those 19 and under has deceased from a high of 5,931 in 1993 to 5,285 in 1995 there still were
an average of 5,282 deaths a year from 1990 to 1995. This represents a 50 percent increase over the
average of 3,517 firearm fatalities that occurred from 1980 to 1989. Overall, an average of 4,233 persons
aged 19 and under have died annually from firearm injuries from 1980 to 1995. Figures I and 2 depict
this increase.¹
The main factor affecting this rise was the sharp increase in the average annual number of firearm
homicides. There were an average of 3,314 firearm homicides for those 19 and under from 1990 to
1995. This represents a 105 percent increase over the average of 1,615 firearm homicides that occurred
between 1980 and 1989. Overall, an average of 2,252 persons aged 19 and under died annually from
firearm homicides from 1980 to 1995. Figures 3 and 4 display this incrcase.²
Firearm related suicides have Increased as well, but at a slower rate. From 1990 to 1995 there were
and average of 1,468 firearm suicides. This represents an increase of 18 percent over the average of
1,249 firearm suicides from 1980 to 1989. Overall, an average of 1,331 firearm suicides for those aged
19 and under occurred from 1980 to 95. Figures 5 and 6 display this increase'
Unintentional firearm deaths have decreased significantly since 1980, but youths aged 19 and
under have consistently accounted for a significant percentage of these deaths. From 1980 to 1995,
over one third of all unintentional firearm deaths occurred among those aged 19 and under, with an
average of 533 deaths annually. Overall, those aged 15 to 19 had the highest annual average of
unintentional firearm deaths of any age group, at 285 deaths per year.4
Males aged 15 to 19 have the fastest rising firearm death rate. In 1994, the overall firearm death rate
(comprised of homicide, suicide, and unintentional deaths, deaths associated with legal intervention and
those of unknown origin) for this age group reached 49.2 per 100,000 population, more than double the
rate of 22.3 per 100,000 in 1985. During the same time period, the overall age-adjusted firearm death
rate rose only 18 percent, from 12.7 to 15.1 deaths per 100,000 population. Even with the recent decline
in firearm deaths in 1995, the death rate for males aged 15 to 19 was 42.4 per 100,000 population, more
than triple the rate of 13.9 pcr 100,000 population for the population as a whole.
The main factor influencing this rise was the number of firearm homicides. This increase is
exemplified by the 129 percent increase in the firearm homicide rate among males aged 15 to 19.
Overall, there were 31,953 firearm homicides from 1980 to 1995 among those aged 15 to 19. This
number went from 1,743 in 1980 to 3,249 in 1995. These increases have far outstripped any growth that
can be accounted for with demographic factors and point to a rising tide of violence that has heretofore
not been successfully addressed by public policies at the local, state or federal level. In the last two
years, however, there has been a reduction in the number of firearm homioides in this age group as well,⁵
DOMESTIC POLICY COUNCIL
04/09/98 14:21 FAX 202 456 5557
ver .
202 622 1452
P.03/09
Along with the rise in firearm related deaths among those aged 15 to 19 In the past 15 years, there
has also been a significant rise in the rate at which youth commit homicide. This trend
contradicts the overall decrease in violent crime that has been scen nationally. In demographic
terms, the homicide rate rises rapidly in the middle to late teen years and then drops off
dramatically as age increases. That young offenders commit more homicides than older ones is
not new. What is new is the sharp increase in the murder rate in the last decade. During this time
period the number of firearm homicides by those aged 10 to 17 more than doubled. This rise has
been not followed by a comparative one in older offenders. In fact, the rate for these older
offenders has leveled off or even decreased. Thus, much of the increase in the overall homicide
rate can be attributed to the rise in homicides by young offenders. This rise is especially
significant since the number and rate of non-firearm homicides remained virtually unchanged
during the same time period. Figure 6 shows this rise.6
There has also been a rise in the number of so called "cross over killings", in which
offenders are younger, sometimes significantly younger, than their victims. Analysis of the
Supplementary Homicide Reports (SHRs) by experts has found that more than three quarters of
offenders aged 13 to 17 were younger than their victims. In fact, 53 percent of killers were five
or more years younger than their victims in 1995. Intrestingly, this trend is not replicated in older
offenders. In fact, only 35 percent of killers had victims that were five or more years younger
than they were in 1995. This trend has existed for the last ten years and has increased since 1985,
a fact which contradicts conventional theories that the rise in juvenile homicides came from
juvenile offenders killing each other.'
The volatility of the trends in youth crime statistics, especially in the last fifteen years,
makes it difficult to predict with confidence what future trends will emerge. Statistically,
the youth violent crime rate and the size of the population 19 and under have headed in opposite
directions from 1980 to 1995. Youth violent crime rates rose sharply in the middle 1980's while
the size of the population 19 and under was decreasing. This trend reversed itself in the middle
1990's where youth violent crime decreased while the size of the population aged 19 and under
rose. Current statistics show a continuation of the decline in youth violent crime that began in
1995, while the size of the population age 19 and under is projected to increase by 10 to 15
percent. The complex interaction of these factors and others makes it difficult to predict what
trends will emerge in the future."
DOMESTIC POLICY COUNCIL
04/09/98 14:22 FAX 202 456 5557
202 522
Overall Firearm Deaths for Ages 19 and Under
1980 to 1995
6000
5000
4000
# of Deaths
3000
2000
1000
D
1980
'82
'84
'86
'88
'90
'92
'94
Age 19 and under
Figure 1
Compiled from data gathered on the National Center for InjuryControl and Prevention
web site at http://www.cdc.gov/ncipc/
Average Overall Firearm Deaths
Ages 19 and Under
6000
2282
5000
4000
0517
# of Deaths the
3000
2000
1000
0
1980 to 1989
1890 to 1995
Figure 2
Compiled from data gathered on the National Center for InjuryControl and Prevention
web site at http://www.cdc.gov/ncipc/
DOMESTIC POLICY COUNCIL
202 622 1452 P.05/09
04/09/98 14:22 FAX 202 456 5557
Firearm Homlcides for Age 19 and Under
1980 to 1995
4000
3500
3000
2500
# of Deaths
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1980
'82
'84
'86
'88
'BD
'92
'94
19 and under
Figure 3
Compiled from data gathered on the National Center for Injury Control and Prevention
web site at http://www.cdc.gov/ncipo/
Average Firearm Homicides
Ages 19 and Under
3500
3314
3000
2500
# of Deaths
2000
1615
1500
1000
500
0
1980 to 1989
1990 to 1995
Figure 4
Compiled from data gathered on the National Center for Injury Control and Prevention
web site at http://www.cdc.gov/ncipc/
DOMESTIC POLICY COUNCIL
04/09/98 14:22 FAX 202 456 5557
202 622 1452
P.06/09
Average Firearm Suicide Deaths
For Those 19 and Under
1600
1488
1400
1249
1200
1000
# of Deaths
800
800
400
200
0
1980 to 1989
1990 to 1995
Figure 5
Compiled from data gathered on the National Center for Injury Control and Prevention
web site at http://www.cdc.gov/ncipc/
Firearm Suicide Rates
1980 to 1995
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
800
400
200
0
1980
'82
'84
'88
'88
'90
'92
'94
Ages 19 and under
Figure 6
Compiled from data gathered on the National Center for Injury Control and Prevention
web site at http://www.cdc.gov/ncipc/
DOMESTIC POLICY COUNCIL
04/09/98 14:23 FAX 202 456 5557
202 622 1452
P.07/09
DEFT
Gun V9, Non-Gun Homicides
by Juveniles (10-17 yrs old)
2500
2000
# of Homicides
1500
1000
500
0
1976
'80
'84
'88 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94
Year
Gun
Non-Gun
Figure 7
Sources: Blumstein, Alfred, " Linking Gun Availability to Youth Gun Violence ", Journal of
Law and Contemporary Problems, Duke University, Spring 1995, p.18.
Gun vs Non Gun Homicides
For Males 15 to 19
3000
2500
2000
# of homicides
1500
1000
500
D
1980
'82
'84
'86
'88
'90
'92
'94
gun
non gun
Figure 8
Compiled from data gathered on the National Center for Injury Control and Prevention
web site at http://www.cdc.gov/ncipc/
DOMESTIC POLICY COUNCIL
04/09/98 14:23 FAX 202 456 5557
202 622 1452
P.08/09
Murder Rate For Specific Age Goups
1966-1992
ao
50
40
per 100,000 pop
30
20
10
0
15
20
25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Age of Viotim
1975
1985
1992
Figure 9
Source: Blumstein, Alfred " Violence by Young People: Why the Deadly Nexus" National
Institute of Justice Journal, August 1995, P.
FAX
456
5557
DOMESTIC POLICY COUNCIL
04/09/98
14:23
202
TREASURI DEPT
202 622 1452
P.09/09
Endnotes
1.
From data gathered from The National Center for Injury Prevention and Control
(NCIPC) web site
http://www.cdc.gov/ncipc/osp/us8 179/ofarm.htm Also files us8381, us8784, us9188,
us9592 pp. 1-7.
2.
From data gathored from The National Center for Injury Prevention and Control
(NCIPC) web site
http://www.cdc.gov/ncipc/osp/us8179/fhomi.hm. Also files us8381, us8784, us9188,
us9592 pp. 1-7.
3.
From data gathered from The National Center for Injury Prevention and Control
(NCIPC) web site
http://www.cdc.gov/ncipc/osp/us8179/farmsuic.htm Also files us8381, us8784, us9188,
us9592 pp. 1-7
4.
From data gathered from The National Center for Injury Prevention and Control
(NCIPC) website
http://www.cdc.gov/ncipc/osp/us8179/ufarm/htm. Also files us8381, us8784, us9188,
us9592 pp. 1-7.
5.
From data gathered from the (NCIPC) web site.
http://www.cdc.gov/ncipc/osp/us8179/fhomi.htm. Also files us8381, us8784, us9188,
us9592 PP. 1-7.
6.
Blumestein, Alfred "Violence by Young People: Why the Deadly Nexus" National
Institute of Justice Journal, August 1995, p.5.
7.
Cook, Philip J, and Laub, John, H "The Unprecedented Epidemic In Youth Violence",
Duke University, Unpublished paper, pp. 23, 42-43.
8.
Cook, Philip et. al., p. 4; Wickham, Dwayne" Avoid jailing juveniles with hardened
adults", USA TODAY, February 10, 1998, p. 13A.
TOTAL P.09