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Health David S. Broder From Medicare To HMOs The other morning, at a meeting of the What works in private business may be House Budget Committee, four business peo- harder to accomplish in Medicare. Older peo- ple gave Congress some advice that could help ple incur higher medical costs, and one study avert a fiscal train wreck and at the same time for Vladeck's agency has questioned the likeli- improve life for millions of senior citizens. hood of large-scale savings from moving Medi- The big bucks in any serious deficit reduc- care patients into health-maintenance organi- tion plan, almost everyone acknowledges, will zations. have to come out of Medicare, the govern- But any savings will help, and the trend is ment's health insurance program for senior already going toward HMOs. While only 9 citizens. Medicare spending has been rising percent of Medicare recipients currently are almost 10 percent a year. By 2000, the annual in HMOs, the number grew by 16 percent last cost is projected to be $100 billion higher than year and is expected to increase another 20 it is now. percent this year. This can't last. The presidential entitle- It's often a good deal for everyone. HMOs ments commission reported last December charge the government 5 percent less than that unless changes are made, the Medicare the average per capita cost for Medicare trust fund will likely go broke by 2001. Presi- patients in their area and typically offer a dent Clinton proposed no solution in his budg- wider range of benefits, including prescription et, saying Medicare changes should await a drugs, which are not available to other Medi- larger health care reform. But key members care recipients. of Congress know procrastination is no option. Sen. Judd Gregg (R-N.H.) has a plan to lure House Budget Committee Chairman John Kas- even more Medicare patients into HMOs, by ich (R-Ohio) is looking for major savings in offering them cash rebates as well as expan- Medicare as part of his blueprint for balancing ded services. The American Association of the budget, but he knows the politics of it will Retired Persons has not endorsed it, but it is be tough. keeping an open mind. Kasich clearly wants to For years, Congress has shaved Medicare move in the same direction. There are still expenditures by cutting back the reimburse- many wrinkles to work out, but this approach ment rates to hospitals and doctors, resulting appears to offer hope of solving the single in cost-shifting to non-Medicare patients and biggest problem in bringing future deficits their insurers. That game can't be played under control. much longer. The only other obvious option is equally uňpalatable-reducing services to Medicare recipients or forcing them to make bigger co-payments. Senior citizens vote in much higher proportions than younger people. And they are acutely protective of "their" Medi- care and Social Security. As Bruce Vladeck, head of the Health Care Financing Administration, remarked to a con- gressional committee last month, Medicare beneficiaries "feel a certain ownership of the program," even though the typical worker turning 65 today will have contributed, along with his or her employer, only about 40 percent of the average hospital benefits Medi- care will pay him or her. A possible escape from this dilemma was súggested by the four private-sector benefits managers Kasich invited to his hearing. The officials of IBM, Eastman Kodak, Ryder and Texas Instruments testified that health care benefits for retirees (and active workers) can be reshuffled in a way that saves big money and does not bring loud protest-if it is done right. All four of the firms faced runaway costs for their health programs. All of them decided they had to encourage their workers and retirees to shift from fee-for-service to man- aged-care plans, in which networks of doctors and hospitals agree to provide all needed medical services for a flat, prepaid premium. Before they made the shift, the four said, the firms gave the workers and retirees a ton of information about the options available, engaged them in real discussion and then did "a lot of hand-holding." The good news is that costs have come down-radically-and em- ployee satisfaction is up. Michael A. Tarre. the IBM executive, told the committee that THE WASHINGTON POST SUNDAY, March 26, 1995 "1995 will be the fourth consecutive year of per capita cost decreases" in a $900 million program providing over half a million people with wide-ranging benefits and a broad choice of plans.