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PAGE
9
7TH STORY of Level 1 printed in FULL format.
Copyright 1998 Information Access Company,
a Thomson Corporation Company;
ASAP
Copyright 1998 Foundation for the School of Business at
Indiana University
Business Horizons
September 1, 1998
SECTION: No. 5, Vol. 41; Pg. 21; ISSN: 0007-6813
IAC-ACC-NO: 21186693
LENGTH: 7044 words
HEADLINE: Boom time for electronic commerce - rhetoric or reality?
BYLINE: Foley, Paul; Sutton, David
BODY:
Some pretty amazing statistics have been put forward on the growth of the
Internet and the World Wide Web and their potential for trade. It is nonsense to
believe the forecasts that a billion people will be using the Internet by the
year 2000, or to give credence to wild predictions that $ 200 billion of world
trade will be transacted on the Net in 2000 There is no easy way to measure any
statistic regarding the growth of the Net, but many firms are becoming concerned
about its potential impact on them. An understanding of the factors influencing
electronic commerce, or Internet trade, should be central to the development of
any strategy to develop applications on the Net or better inform those
considering its potential impact on existing businesses.
Many firms developing Internet technology (Microsoft, Netscape
Communications), those providing access to the Internet (CompuServe, America
Online), and others that sell the technology are thriving. But many businesses
using the Internet to promote trade are struggling. The number of losers exceeds
the number of moneymakers by at least two or three to one. A little like China,
the Internet is a potentially huge market; everyone believes there is money to
be made, but so far few have figured out how to do it.
It is not the volume of trade, however, but the nature of trade facilitated
by this relatively new medium that should warrant most attention. Most current
methods of promoting trade or advertising, such as mailshots, television, and
magazine ads, are push media supplying information directly to a potential
customer. The Internet is a pull medium in which users generally extract only
the information they require. It has become a distribution channel, distributing
information and goods and providing unprecedented access for individuals to make
better choices when purchasing goods and services.
The Net is said to represent a level playing field posing minimal entry
barriers for businesses seeking new markets and distribution channels. But it is
unclear how electronic commerce is cannibalizing existing marketing outlets, or
how much trade is the result of expansion in new and existing markets, such as
online games or gambling. Even in new markets there is likely to be some capture
of resources from other activities (other things being equal) as disposable
income is spent on new activities. In existing markets, the Net has the
PAGE
10
Business Horizons September 1, 1998
capability to remove the need for an intermediary in most transactions. As
buyers purchase directly from producers, the loss of wholesalers, retailers, and
other intermediaries could lower transaction costs for the purchaser and enable
producers to achieve higher profits by retaining some of the markup previously
retained by the intermediaries.
Harrington (1995) defines electronic commerce as the exchange of information,
goods, services, and payments by electronic means. The Internet provides a
medium for communication. In some cases it can facilitate all the elements of
Harrington's definition, but it is equally possible for transactions to be
completed using a whole range of communication media, including the Net. A
customer could stumble across a page on the World Wide Web while browsing,
obtain further information by e-mail, make a telephone call to get detailed
technical information by fax, and visit the distribution depot or retailer to
collect and pay for the goods. This diversity of uses for the Net in a
purchasing decision is a feature rarely addressed in many estimates and
forecasts. Thus, the Internet can be but one among many communication channels
used in the complex process leading to a purchase decision.
Many firms use their Web sites to supply information on products, prices, and
after-sales service, thereby assisting Net users in making a purchase decision.
For instance, some PC game companies allow a demo version of software to be
downloaded in the hope of encouraging users to purchase the game on CD. Other
firms provide details of "local" outlets, anywhere in the world, at which
purchasers can obtain their products.
The role of the Net can therefore vary. For this reason and others,
predictions about trade using the Net must be treated with extreme caution. It
could play a role in "ordinary" purchases, such as the example above, or it
could become central to a firm's operations at all stages of the marketing
process. By reviewing several forecasts of electronic commerce and investigating
the processes involved in making that final online purchase, we hope to aid in
understanding the potential for electronic commerce, how key technologies and
systems will evolve, and the roles businesses may adopt. As stated before, such
an understanding will be critical to the strategies of companies in a wide range
of businesses in the future.
DEMAND AND THE INTERNET
The potential for electronic commerce, as with all trade, is affected by
demand from users and supply by businesses or other organizations. Demand is
affected by three key factors: (1) the number of people using the Internet now
and in the future, (2) the characteristics of those users, both individuals and
businesses, and (3) their purchasing behavior on the Net - probably the most
important of the three. Together, these factors allow an examination of current
and future demand for goods and services on the Internet.
Because of the speed of change, our review of demand and supply uses reports
from newspapers, trade journals, and World Wide Web pages as well as academic
journals. Web pages and commercial sources are published more frequently than
academic journals and have shorter lead times. Moreover, they often contain the
results of trade and consumer surveys that would otherwise be expensive to
purchase. We have also included a guide to leading sources of regularly revised
information available about electronic commerce on the World Wide Web (see
Figure 1) This guide should allow readers to obtain updates of figures, gain
PAGE
11
Business Horizons September 1, 1998
access to information, and review articles about Internet use and electronic
commerce. (All monetary figures are in U.S. dollars.)
Demand: Internet Connectivity
One of the fundamental factors affecting the potential for electronic
commerce is the number of people connected to the Internet. This number is
extremely difficult to estimate, however, because of the dispersed nature of
users. Studies also provide data in different ways. Some consider the number of
hosts, such as Network Wizards' estimate of 29.6 million host computer systems
connected to the Net as of January 1998. Some surveys provide information about
the number of users, whereas others record the number of households connected.
But few distinguish between household (or social) users and commercial users who
are accessing the Net from businesses or other organizations. Hence, we advise
caution when comparing the results of surveys wherever appropriate full details
concerning user characteristics and dates of surveys appear here.
Estimates of Internet connectivity in 1996 range between 24 million and 100
million. Table 1 shows a review of 19 studies published between January 1996 and
May 1997. The average number of Net users in 1996 estimated by the 11 worldwide
studies is 45 million, but this figure is greatly affected by two high values.
It must be remembered that these figures are little more than guesses.
In one Wired study that collected data from online providers about their
subscription
levels
("Growth
Slowing
"
1997), 51 online services reported 27.6
million subscribers at the end of March 1997. But subscribers may provide access
to more than one individual, and millions more business users are located behind
firewalls.
Any review of Internet connectivity should not be constrained by examining
only household data. Businesses are major users of computers. A survey by
O'Reilly and Associates (Peck 1996) found that in the U.S. and Canada, 51
percent of the largest firms surveyed (those with more than 1,000 employees)
have corporate access to the Net, compared to 27 percent of mid-sized firms (100
to 999 employees) and fewer than 10 percent of small firms. In the UK, a more
recent survey by Durlacher Multimedia in 1997 found that 85 percent of large UK
corporations have an Internet connection. In most firms, however, access is
limited to a small percentage of staff.
In a spring 1997 survey by the Graphics, Visualization, and Usability Center
(GVU) at Georgia Institute of Technology, 60 percent of users reportedly
accessed the Web mainly from home - a number that was believed to be
stabilizing. An Inteco household survey the previous September also found a
leveling off in home access. Future growth in the U.S. was expected to come
primarily from a continuing trend of increased access from work or school.
Forecasts of the growth in connectivity show an equally diverse array of
values, ranging from 90 million to a billion users in 2000. Estimates at the
upper level must be regarded skeptically. They would require a phenomenal
increase in the adoption of "old" technology, let alone the purchase of
computers and modems. Even in the deyeloped world, only about half the
population - roughly 400 million people - have a telephone at home. In the
developing world, the number is only about 4 percent. If one makes the bullish
prediction that all the world's households with telephones (about 600 million)
will be using the Net at the same 30 percent level predicted for the U.S. in
PAGE
12
Business Horizons September 1, 1998
2000, the maximum level of worldwide household connectivity would be 180
million.
Predictions of future growth in the United States are obviously no more
reliable than others. Forecasts generally predict between 25 and 35 million U.S.
users in 2000, with a growth rate of about 50 percent between 1996 and 2000.
These forecasts appear more modest than those put forward by prophets making
guesses at the world scale, which envisage growth of at least 300 percent during
the same time.
Some commentators have suggested there may be a ceiling of 25 to 30 percent
of American households (24 to 28 million) connecting to the Internet. According
to Coy (1996a), a survey by Mercer Management Consulting found that two-thirds
of the market for electronic commerce in the United States was made up of two
demographic groups comprising only 17 percent of the population. Surveyors found
limited potential for electronic commerce beyond these two relatively affluent
groups - the "wired elite" and "upgrade families."
Table 2
Demand for and Supply of Information on the Internet
DEMAND
SUPPLY
Internet Host
Online Newspaper
Country/Region
Location
Provision
United States
64%
55%
Other English-speaking countries
13%
9% (1)
Europe
18% (2)
22%
Asia (3)
4%
5%
Africa/Middle East
1%
1%
Central and South America
1%
7%
1 Canada, Australia, and New Zealand
2 Excluding UK and Ireland
3 Excluding Australia and New Zealand
PAGE
13
Business Horizons September 1, 1998
Note: Figures are rounded, so columns do not total 100.
Source: Mandel (1996) and Outing (1996)
Predictions of a more moderate growth pattern in the United States suggest a
slowdown in the number of new users. Recent evidence indicates this trend may
already be happening. Subscriptions to online service providers America Online
(AOL) and CompuServe increased by just 6.6 percent in the first quarter of 1997,
compared with quarterly growth of 15.3 percent a year earlier. Supporting
evidence for slower growth is provided by GVU's most recent semiannual survey,
which found the number of new users in its survey had fallen from 60 percent in
1995 to 36 percent in 1996 and 1997. A steady resurgence in Net users will
probably occur in the future as students and schoolchildren using it for
educational purposes maintain access after graduation by connecting from home or
the workplace.
The United States is generally regarded as the earliest adopter of Internet
technology. Mandel (1996) states that nearly two-thirds of Net host computers
are located here. Table 2 provides a good indication of the geographical
distribution in 1996 of the potential "demand" for information (or goods and
services) from the Net, using host computers as a surrogate for the geographical
distribution of demand. Outing's (1996) survey of online newspaper provision
serves as a surrogate for the geographical distribution of information
provision, enabling a tentative examination of the "supply" of information.
Table 2 also shows the predominance of English-speaking countries in
connecting to the Net. Asia's surprisingly poor position, considering it has 59
percent of the world's population, is explained by three factors: (1) the
relatively low level of home PC ownership in Japan less than 15 percent; (2) the
Chinese government's concern about the Internet as a source of politically
sensitive information; and (3) the relative poverty of many Asian countries.
Asia, like many other non-English speaking areas, is also hampered by the fact
that nearly all Web pages are written in English. Programs may be developed in
the future that will automatically translate e-mail and Web pages, but in the
meantime, interest in the Web for non-English speaking users is limited.
Internet User Characteristics
Net users have been characterized as predominantly young, well-educated,
professional, and affluent males. However, recent surveys suggest that people
using the Net are becoming more representative of the population as a whole. The
United States again appears to be leading this trend. Online surveys reveal that
the proportion of female users in the U.S. has risen from 5 percent in 1994 to
approximately one-third in 1996. Other surveys found the proportion had risen to
40 percent or more. In Britain, where the market is starting to mature, the
percentage of female users reached 35 percent in 1997, according to NOP Research
(1997) Elsewhere, male predominance is still the rule: 85 percent in Europe and
Australia, and 90 percent in Japan.
Net users are mostly young, but the average age is also increasing. In spring
1997, GVU found an average age of 35.2 compared with 33 a year earlier. European
users are generally younger than U.S. respondents (30.2 and 36.5 years old,
respectively). Users also appear to be more affluent than the general
population. Whereas average American household income in 1995 was $ 42,400,
Net-using households had an average income of $ 66,700. Diamond (1997)
PAGE
14
Business Horizons September 1, 1998
suggests that average had fallen to $ 55,000 in 1997. A higher proportion of
those with managerial and professional jobs are Net users. Compared to the U.S.
as a whole, which had 34 percent in this category in 1994, 59 percent of users
in 1994 held such jobs. This had decreased to 50 percent in 1995 and 39 percent
in 1997, reports Chandrasekaran (1997).
The relative stability in user characteristics in the United States - who are
slightly younger and more affluent than the general population, with a greater
predominance of males - should provide greater confidence and stability for
Internet traders. This situation is likely to be replicated in other countries
as their Net population expands and matures.
INTERNET PURCHASING BEHAVIOR: DO PEOPLE USE ELECTRONIC COMMERCE?
The last, but probably most important, of the three factors influencing the
demand for electronic trade is how users and purchasers behave on the Internet.
Most users browse rather than purchase. The most common Web activities among
general users, according to one GVU survey, are browsing (61 percent), work (54
percent), education (52 percent), and entertainment (46 percent) Among those
using it for business purposes, reports Inc. ("What Are You Doing on the Web?"
1996), the primary activities tend to be gathering information (77 percent),
collaborating with others (54 percent) providing vendor support and
communications (50 percent), and researching competitors (46 percent).
Purchasing goods and services through the Net ranked last in both surveys.
However, as a communication tool, the Net could be influential in the purchasing
decision for an increasing number of users who complete their purchases using
other methods of communication as well.
The semiannual GVU surveys had been showing a steady increase in consumer
purchasing, but as of fall 1997 a slight decrease was recorded for the first
time. This drop to 18.7 percent of respondents from 18.8 percent six months
earlier was still higher than the 14.9 percent recorded a year earlier by Toon
(1996) In contrast to Chandrasekaran's report that 15 percent of responding Net
users had purchased something online, a similar household survey of 2,003 adult
respondents by AT&T and Odyssey and reported by Computerworld in 1997 found a
much lower level of purchasing behavior - only 7 percent had bought anything
online and only 20 percent had sought information about a product or service.
How much did users spend on purchases on the Web in 19967 Between spring and
fall, reports GVU, 36 percent spent less than $ 10, whereas 20 percent spent
between $ 10 and $ 99 and 29.5 percent spent over $ 100 through the Web. The key
advantages of purchasing via the Web are ease of contact, lower prices, easy
ordering, and quality of information. Security of financial transactions has
been a major concern, but this problem seems to be diminishing. Other concerns
are ease of obtaining a refund, reliability, and the ease of canceling orders.
Web users, it seems, still prefer traditional vendors over Web vendors.
There is evidence that growth in spending over the Web will not increase at a
concomitant rate with the growth in new users. Latecomers to the Web are not as
likely to shop at the same rate as early adopters. CompuServe's membership grew
by 60 percent in 1996, but its online sales stayed relatively static. The
decline in growth in purchasing behavior indicates that relative stability may
already have been reached.
PAGE
15
Business Horizons September 1, 1998
What Do People Buy?
The characterization of early Web users as young professional men who are
educated and technically knowledgeable is also the demographic profile of
typical purchasers of CDs, adult entertainment, computer software, and other
"boys' toys. Some goods are being bought much more frequently than others on
the Web. Computer hardware and software, books, music, adult entertainment, and
travel are consistently reported as the main items purchased. In 1994, Shi and
Salesky suggested some key characteristics for merchandise purchased online:
items for which product information is an important part of the purchase
decision, but for which pre-purchase trial is not critical (such as computers,
but not cars);
items for which audio or video demonstrations are useful (CDs, videos)
items that can be delivered electronically (computer software)
items that are unique (collectibles, specialty foods) ; and
items purchased regularly where convenience is valued (packaged goods)
The passage of time has proven three of these predictions accurate, but the
last two have generally not been as useful, as shown in Table 3.
By concentrating on the characteristics of merchandise, Shi and Salesky's
approach ignored two other important factors: services and the purchase process.
More recent studies have highlighted the growth of services offered on the Web,
particularly financial and insurance services. And in considering the process of
undertaking electronic commerce, two additional characteristics make online
purchasing attractive:
*
ease and privacy of transaction (adult entertainment, gambling, sending
flowers) ; and
*
availability of information about price for products that are standard
comparison items, particularly entertainment goods, such as CDs and videos.
Although none of the surveys in Table 3 recorded the importance of adult
entertainment or gambling, anecdotal evidence about the most frequently read
pages on the Web suggests they are significant. The sexual nature of the most
oft-used words in searches at such online navigational guides as Yahoo suggest
that "privacy" of transactions is important. Given the size of the adult
entertainment market, this could be a prime area for electronic commerce.
According to Sharkey (1997), U.S. News and World Report suggested that the
American market was worth more than $ 8 billion in 1996.
Price has always been an important feature in making a purchase decision. It
is no surprise, then, that some of the most popular electronic commerce sites
are those offering far lower prices than High Street competitors for standard
comparison items, such as CDs, videos, and books. The introduction of
"intelligent agents, which engage in comparison shopping between Internet
stores to find the best price for a particular [TABULAR DATA FOR TABLE 3
OMITTED] product, will exacerbate the importance of price and ease the
purchaser's task of finding the cheapest product for some standard comparison
PAGE
16
Business Horizons September 1, 1998
goods. Already there are sophisticated Web sites that enable potential
purchasers to buy any book or CD at the cheapest available price from a
selection of worldwide electronic commerce suppliers.
A fundamental assumption of retailers in the real world and on the Internet
is that shops that provide better services will retain customers and, hence,
should be able to charge higher prices. Intelligent agents, however, have the
potential to overturn this long-held belief by providing instant access to
information on the cheapest provider anywhere in the world. Of course, this will
only work for standard goods or services (CDs, books, airline flights, life
insurance) that are easily defined and compared.
The most popular items purchased by electronic commerce are computer hardware
and software, books and magazines, travel, and CDs. Not only are they the most
competitive items on the Net, they also constitute the area in which competition
with conventional retailers is likely to be most intense. Banking, insurance,
and other services and products that make more use of the ease and privacy
offered by electronic commerce will likely grow in significance.
Two seemingly conflicting trends for intermediaries will also arise. First,
the Net has the capability of eliminating the need for wholesalers, retailers,
and other intermediaries in many transactions as buyers purchase directly from
producers. Electronic commerce lowers transaction costs for the purchaser and
enables producers to achieve higher profits by retaining some of the markup
previously retained by intermediaries. Second, the role of one or two leading
intermediaries could be enhanced if they offer an intelligent agent service that
aggregates price and other product information on standard comparison goods,
thereby enabling purchasers to quickly find the cheapest supplier of what they
seek.
For products and services that can be compared this way, electronic commerce
may erode the nature of the trading process by usurping the role of retailers
and agents or brokers (particularly in financial services). It could also
destroy the importance of the traditional marketing concept of building customer
relationships by transforming the way people shop.
How Much Do People Buy?
Predictions of the level of electronic commerce undertaken via the Internet
are even more difficult than those for Net connectivity. Sales information is
sensitive, particularly for businesses that trade only via the Net. Any
estimates for the current volume of sales is therefore highly speculative. Table
4 reviews 12 studies published between January 1996 and March 1997. The average
level of trade in these studies is $ 1.08 billion; if the large Waltner estimate
is omitted (which also predicts sales of $ 13.4 billion for 1997), the average
value is approximately $ 840 million.
Only three of the studies in Table 4 make predictions for 2000 on the basis
of figures revealed for 1996. They predict growth of 550, 1,270 and 1,320
percent, respectively, between 1996 and 2000. If the level of commerce in the
widely quoted Forrester estimate of $ 6.6 billion in 2000 were achieved, it
would equate to Net purchases of approximately $ 37 per year by every one of the
180 million households worldwide that might be connected to the World Wide Web
in 2000. Because newcomers are unlikely to purchase at the same rate as
established users, this high level seems unrealistic. In comparison, the two
PAGE
17
Business Horizons September 1, 1998
largest "big book" general merchandise marketers in the United States had total
catalog sales of $ 5.5 billion in 1995: JCPenney at $ 3.7 billion and Spiegel at
$ 1.75 billion.
SUPPLY: ELECTRONIC COMMERCE AND INFORMATION, GOODS, AND SERVICES
Established businesses are beginning to capitalize on the perceived economic
benefits and marketing reach of electronic commerce. Many are supplying
information, goods, and services using the Internet. Some banks are starting to
move their customer services to electronic channels. Retailers are moving
online, and new intermediaries are emerging.
The simplest measure of the "supply" of information for electronic commerce
is to count the number of sites or pages on the World Wide Web. Between January
and December 1994, the number of Web sites rose from 623 to 10,022, whereas the
number of commercial pages was estimated to be only 370. By December 1996, the
total number of sites had increased to 603,000, the number of commercial sites
was estimated to be 45,000, and the number of commercial pages was believed to
have grown to 250,000. However, estimates suggest that 25 to 30 percent of Web
pages die each year. The electronic commerce market, like the real world, is
comprised of a steady influx of new businesses and the closing of dead ones.
[TABULAR DATA FOR TABLE 4 OMITTED]
The Internet provides an unprecedented supply of information for individuals
to make better choices about products and services. But to obtain that
information, potential purchasers have to find the sources. Indexes have become
a vital tool in enabling users to find what they want to know. Knowledge
organization is important, not just because of how much information is now
available, but because of the growing number of users seeking it. The total
number of pages on the Web in 1996 was estimated to be 11 million, with perhaps
300,000 extra pages added every seven days. That number is now thought to be
growing faster than the number of users.
Numerous examples are quoted in the popular press and trade journals of
successful Internet businesses, such as Amazon books, CDNow, Hot Hot Hot, and
Dell Computer. Despite these and other well-known successes, surveys still
suggest that fewer than one in two or three sites are profitable. For something
that many heralded as the next "gold rush,' results so far are disappointing.
The list of well-known but less-publicized failures includes MCI's Internet
Shopping Mall, Time Warner's Pathfinder and Dreamshop, and Webmart Shopping
2000. Even for some of the successes, revenues appear to be low. Some successful
catalog sales companies, which many thought would be at the forefront of
developing the new technology, report that online sales amount to only a small
portion of total revenue.
Some commentators have suggested that technology accounts for the relatively
slow level of growth. As soon as it is possible to sit down in front of a
television set and shop with fast image presentation and a remote control, they
say, everything will change. However, three months after a well-publicized
launch just before Christmas 1996, fewer than 70,000 Web TV devices had been
sold in the United States. Xu (1997) estimates that the number of Web-enabled
television sets will still be under a million in 1999. Web TV will differ from
TV home shopping in a number of ways; nevertheless, the slow growth of home
shopping and the move by ValueVision International, a leading home shopping
PAGE
18
Business Horizons September 1, 1998
network, into the mail order industry suggest that current television sales
levels are limited.
Many of those developing Internet technology or providing access to it have a
strong vested interest in the real or perceived expansion of electronic
commerce. Consultants, journalists, and perhaps even academics have equally
pressing reasons to ensure the popularity of this relatively new method of
communication. The number of people connected to the Net has certainly
skyrocketed in recent years. But in the United States, the evidence of a
slowdown in the number of new users and a relative decline in the number of
purchases they make likely heralds the same thing worldwide in the very near
future.
Outrageous claims forecasting the impact of the Net, the WWW, and electronic
commerce on our lives over the next five years are, as we have shown,
unrealistic and misleading. Perhaps the Net will become the next management fad.
Most fads put forward by gurus in recent years, such as TQM and reengineering,
had an internal focus. And companies really only have two main choices when
improving their business-reducing costs or increasing throughput. So it was only
a matter of time before they embraced a fad with an external focus, such as the
Net.
Undoubtedly the Internet has had a significant commercial impact since 1993.
And in some industries particularly suited to electronic commerce - computer
software and hardware, CDs, books, financial services - this influence will
grow. But businesses must be very careful before staking their all on the
stratospheric claims put forward for its role in the growth of electronic
commerce over the next few years.
Figure 1
Guide to Leading Sources of Regularly Revised Information on Electronic
Commerce and the WWW
Listed below is a selective review of sites on the World Wide Web that
provide regularly updated reviews of Internet surveys, statistics, and reports.
Dynamic links to these pages can be found on the authors' home pages:
http://www.dmu.ac.uk/ln/ecommerce
http://business.city.unisa.edu.au/wwwtrade/internetstatistics.html
INTERNET USER SURVEYS
GVU Georgia Tech User surveys: Online surveys completed
by approximately 20,000 respondents twice yearly (since January 1994)
investigating Internet demographics and use.
*
http://www.cc.gatech.edu/usersurveys
Hobbes Internet Timeline: History of the Internet from 1957 and updated
statistics on hosts, domains, and WWW sites.
*
http://info.isoc.org/zakon/internet/History/HIT.html
PAGE
19
Business Horizons September 1, 1998
Network Wizards: Host and domain surveys completed twice yearly (since
January 1995) providing details of user type and geographical distribution.
*
http://www.nw.com/zone/www/top.html
General Magic: Graphical presentation of past and future growth in Internet
host and domain characteristics.
*
http://www.genmagic.com/internet/trends
Netcraft Web server surveys: Monthly survey of sites and Web server Software
usage.
*
http://www.netcraft.com/survey
INTERNET SURVEY REVIEWS
NUA Ltd. Internet surveys database: Reviews of published Internet surveys and
use from sources throughout the world; updated daily.
*
http://www.nua.ie/surveys/index.cgi
Computerworld Internet reviews: A selective presentation of key statistics
from recent surveys of Web sites on growth, business activity, and purchasing
behavior; not user-friendly.
*
http://www.computerworld.com/emmerce/depts/stats
LINKS TO INTERNET SURVEYS AND STATISTICS
InfoQuest/Internet Surveys and Statistics
*
http://www.teleport.com/ tbchad/stats1.html
Yahoo Internet Statistics and Demographics
*
http://www.yahoo.com/computersandinternet/internet/statisticsanddemographics
Library of Congress Internet Resource Page
*
http://lcweb.loc.gov/global/internet/inet-stats.html
Brand X Internet Services
*
http://www.interlog.com/ bxi/stze.htm
MISCELLANEOUS
Matthew Gray Terminology: Clear definitions and terminology for commonly used
terms such as host, domain, site, etc. Also includes Internet growth data.
*
http://www.mit.edu/people/mkgray/net
PAGE 20
Business Horizons September 1, 1998
Anamorph Irresponsible Internet Statistics Generator: Questions Internet
statistics wittily, with some links to other sites.
*
http://www.anamorph.com/docs/stats/stats.html
*
Editor's note: Check out the July-August 1998 issue of BH, in which Varun
Grover, Liz Hall, and Scott Rosenberg discuss this topic in their article, "The
Web of Privacy: Business in the Information Age."
*
Editor's note: Ramon Peypoch delves further into the topic of electronic
communities in the following article (p. 17).
References
Activmedia Incorporated, "Real Numbers Behind Net Profits,' report reviewed
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B. Aoun, "Agent Technology in Electronic Commerce and Information Retrieval
on the Internet,' Proceedings of AusWeb96, Gold Coast, Australia, July 7-9,
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Australian online survey highlights, 1997 (http://www.
consultco.com.au/highlights.html)
D. Bogle, "How to Make a Net Profit" (Focus), The Weekend Australian, March
15, 1997, p. 24.
R. Chandrasekaran, "Internet Use More Than Doubles, Guardian Weekly, March
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K. Cleland, "On-line Research Costs About Half That of Traditional Methods,"
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M. Cowley, "Still Naughty But Getting Nicer," The Web, November 1997, pp.
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P. Coy, "Has the Net Finally Reached the Wall?" Business Week (Asian ed.),
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P. Coy, "Limo Service for Cruising the Net," Business Week (Asian ed.), June
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S. Creedy, "Bonanza for Businesses on the Internet, Says IDC, The
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Business Horizons September 1, 1998
D. Diamond, "The Web's Salon," PCWeek Online, March 17, 1997.
"Distributors Rush to the Web," Purchasing, January 11, 1996, p. 128.
M.L. DuBrow, "Exploring the Internet for Economic Development Opportunities,"
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Durlacher Multimedia, "UK Internet Growth," report reviewed by NUA Internet
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D. Eccles and R. Palmer, "http://www.future.com.au," Eastern Courier
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P. Foley, "Aggregation and Domination on the Internet? A Review of
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P. Foley and D. Sutton, "The Potential for Trade Facilitated by the Internet
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Services Suitable for Internet Trade," paper presented at 31st International
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S. Friedman, "Agents Should Capitalize on Web's Opportunities," National
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"From TV to Mailboxes,' Catalog Age, Feb. 1997, p. 14.
U.E. Gattiker, L. Janz, and M. Schollmeyer, "Internet Access: Managing Costs
and Benefits, Business Quarterly, Autumn 1996, pp. 85-92.
Global Internet Project, "Commerce by Numbers,' Web growth report reviewed by
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E. Goldratt, "Focusing on Constraints, Not Costs," in R. Gibson (ed.),
Rethinking the Future (London: Nicholas Brealey, 1997): 106-121.
M. Gray, "Web Sites, Hostnames, and IP Addresses, Oh My!" 1996
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GVU, "7th WWW User Survey," II April-May 1997
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Paul Foley is a professor of business development in the Leicester Business
School at De Montfort University, Leicester, England. David Sutton is a senior
lecturer in information systems at the University of South Australia in
Adelaide, where Professor Foley was a visiting professor during the 1997
academic year.
GRAPHIC: Illustration; Table
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
IAC-CREATE-DATE: October 7, 1998
LOAD-DATE: October 08, 1998
Seth S. Grossman
07/08/99 06:10:28 PM
Record Type:
Record
To:
Adam H. Magnus/WHO/EOP@EOP
CC:
Subject:
Online Gap Grows Between Whites, Blacks
By Ted Bridis
Associated Press Writer
Thursday, July 8, 1999; 11:33 a.m. EDT
WASHINGTON - The disparity between whites and black and
Hispanic Americans who own computers and use the Internet is growing
significantly toward a "racial ravine," in many cases even after accounting
for differences in income, the government reported today.
The Commerce Department's "Falling Through the Net" survey shows
dramatic gains in the number of Americans embracing technology. But it
also cites money, education and whether a person lives in an urban area as
key factors affecting how closely they use those high-tech tools.
"The Net is increasingly becoming part of our national heritage - for
some people," said Larry Irving, a Commerce undersecretary and
President Clinton's top telecommunications adviser. "The worst persons
(for likely access to technology) would be low-income blacks or
Hispanics in a rural community."
Most troubling for government experts were indications these disparities
can't be blamed solely on differences in income. Among families earning
$15,000 to $35,000, for example, more than 33 percent of whites owned
computers, but only 19 percent of blacks did - and that gap has
widened nearly 62 percent since 1994 despite plunging computer prices.
"Even when holding income constant, there is still a yawning divide among
different races and origins," the report said, warning of a society in which
"the 'haves' have only become more information-rich while the
'have-nots' are lagging even further behind."
But the government survey also found, predictably, that as income rises,
the likelihood of PC ownership and Internet use also rises. Families with
incomes above $75,000 were more than five times as likely to own a
computer at home and 10 times more likely to have Internet access than
families who earned less than $10,000.
And the gaps in computer ownership and Internet use narrowed between
white families and blacks and Hispanics earning more than $50,000.
"There is a way to buy your way out," said Irving, adding that falling
computer prices will continue to help. "Above $75,000, there is almost no
gap between blacks and whites."
Other key findings:
-About 47 percent of all whites own computers, but fewer than half as
many blacks do. About 25.5 percent of Hispanics own computers, but
fully 55 percent of Asians do. Asian families also are most likely to have
Internet access, with 36 percent online.
-A child in a low-income white family is three times more likely to have
Internet access as a child in a comparable black family and four times
more likely than a Hispanic child.
-People with college degrees are more than eight times more likely to
own a computer and 16 times more likely to have Internet access than
people with elementary school educations.
The report, the third such survey by the government since 1995, did not
suggest specific ways to encourage Internet use or computer ownership
except to recommend continuing to provide online access at community
centers, such as schools, libraries and other facilities.
"It allows minorities to come into an area that's populated by themselves
and learn how to use the technology," agreed Willie Atterberry, chairman
of the AfroNet Web site and magazine in Los Angeles. "You don't have to
worry about going to Silicon Valley. It comes to you."
Ameritech Corp. and the National Urban League announced today they
will spend $350,000 to build five new Internet community centers in
Aurora, III., Cleveland, Detroit, Indianapolis and Milwaukee. And 3Com
Corp. said it will spend $1 million in donated equipment and training to 10
cities to help teach students to be computer network engineers.
"In the information age, there cannot be two separate societies," said
Milton Little of the Urban League.
Some industry experts suggested that minorities might also be discouraged
by computers and the Internet as difficult to learn, or at least consider the
Web a medium whose benefits haven't been sufficiently explained.
"I really don't think the advantage of being online has been instilled in
them," said Trevor Farrington, a director at the Massachusetts-based
African American Internetwork, a Web site aimed at blacks. "Online
banking, investing - that's hotter than pornographic sites now but it's not
being driven home among African Americans.
"I really don't think they understand it," Farrington said. "They think it's too
technical, (but) it's as easy to use as TV and it's better. Once they
understand that, it should grow."
PAGE
1
LEVEL 1 - 1 OF 78 STORIES
Copyright 1999 Insurance Information Institute
III Insurance Issues Update
May, 1999
LENGTH: 6794 words
HEADLINE: AUTO SAFETY AND CRASHWORTHINESS
BYLINE: Ruth Gastel, Editor
BODY:
Key Facts
*
Motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of death for young people from
age 6 to 27.
*
One person dies in a traffic crash every 13 minutes. About 115 people die
in crashes every day.
Current Developments
Fatalities: Motor vehicle crash deaths fell slightly in 1997. According to
the Fatal Analysis Reporting System (FARS), 41,967 people died in motor vehicle
crashes in 1997, down 0.2 percent from 42,065 in 1996. The fatality rate -
measured as deaths per 100 million vehicle miles traveled - dropped to a new
record low of 1.6. This rate had stalled at 1.7 from 1992 to 1996, after
falling steadily from 1986 to 1991.
Speed Limits: States were allowed to determine their own speed limits as set
out in the 1995 national highway bill (See Backgrou nd.) The Insurance Institute
for Highway Safety (IIHS) reported in 1999 that the higher speed limits enacted
in 24 states from late 1995 through 1996 resulted in an estimated increase in
highway deaths of about 15 percent from the same months in the six years bef ore
the speed limits were changed. At the same time, highway deaths did not rise on
the roads where the speed limits were not raise d. The findings reiterated a
12-state study similarly conducted earlier by the IIHS, which showed a 12
percent increase in highway deaths, and a 1998 National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration (NHTSA) study of 32 states where highway fatalities rose 10.4
perc ent.
Despite statistics that indicate that higher speeds kill more motorists, by
the end of 1998, every state in the Union except for Hawaii had raised its
highway speed limits. In Montana, where the original legislation repealing the
speed limit allowed motorists to drive in a safe and prudent manner instead of
setting a limit, a bill that would impose a 75-mph daytime limit on most
interstat es, limit speed near cities to 65-mph, and lower limits on smaller
roadways, is pending.
NHTSA says speeding was a factor in 30 percent of all fatal accidents in
1997, when 13,036 lives were lost in speed-related cras hes. The odds of dying
or being seriously injured in a crash double for every 10 mph a driver speeds
over 50 mph, and the ability O f seat belts, air bags and child safety seats
PAGE
2
Insurance Information Institute, May, 1999
to protect occupants in a crash diminishes as speed increases. The Department
of Tran sportation (DOT) has estimated that if speed limits were repealed across
the entire United States, there would be 4,750 additional C rash deaths each
year. NHTSA notes that there are strong connections between young drivers,
speeding, drunk driving, and not using seat belts. Unfortunately, Americans are
more tolerant of speeding now than they have been in the past, depending on the
road drive n--more than half of those polled by the Insurance Research Council
in 1995 said that it is acceptable to speed on highways, compare d with 37
percent who thought it acceptable to speed on local roads. In 1992, 46 percent
said it was acceptable to speed on highway S, and 32 approved of speeding on
local roads.
Young Drivers: According to the DOT, young drivers, those under age 16 to
the age of 20 - accounted for 6.7 percent of all licen sed drivers in 1996, but
for 14 percent of all drivers in fatal crashes in 1997, and for 17 percent of
all drivers in police-reporte di crashes. The IIHS says the youngest drivers are
the most likely to be involved in crashes. While the risk of crash involvement
p er mile driven among 16- to 19-year-old drivers is four times the risk of
older drivers, the risk peaks among 16- to 17-year-old dri vers.
States are increasingly adopting graduated driver licenses (GDLs) for young
drivers, (see chart at end of paper). These laws al low young drivers to
improve their skills and driving habits, and restrict night-time driving, when
most teenage drivers' accidents occur. Drivers first receive a learner's permit
with a minimum holding period. Any alcohol-related or traffic offense results
in r evocation, and seat belts must be worn, among other provisions. The next
stage is a provisional or intermediate license, with the S ame general
restrictions. A standard drivers' license is issued after a specific period of
driving with no major offenses and a roa d test is passed.
According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, eleven
states have matched or exceeded the provisions of a mode 1 GDL law drafted by
the National Committee on Uniform Traffic Laws and Ordinances (NCUTLO). These
states are: California, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Massachusetts,
Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio and Rhode Island. Thirteen other
states have ena cted some components of the model law, and another handful has
enacted at least one component.
The governor of Arizona signed a limited GDL bill in April that requires 16-
to 18-year-olds to complete a drivers education pro gram or 25 hours of
supervised driving, five of those at night, before obtaining a class "G"
(graduated) license. The young driver must complete special classes after a
moving violation and will have his or her license suspended for three months
after two violati ons and for six months after three violations. GDL bills are
moving through the legislatures in Alabama, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri New
Mexico, Pennsylvania, Utah, and Washington, DC. Of note, in New Mexico, which
currently licenses teens under the age of 16, t he bill proposes that
15-year-olds can obtain a permit only if attending drivers education classes,
and makes 16 years and six month S the earliest a driver can get a provisional
license.
In Florida, where the first GDL law was enacted in 1996, researchers say
that there were 11 percent fewer crashes among 16-year- old drivers in 1997,
compared with 1995. Seventeen-year-olo drivers experienced a 7 percent
reduction at the same time, and the dro p was 19 percent for 15-year-olds. In
PAGE
3
Insurance Information Institute, May, 1999
addition, researchers estimate that the law prevented 1,167 crashes among 15- to
17-year-olds in 1998 in which someone was killed or injured.
Older drivers: The DOT says that although licensed "older" drivers have
fewer accidents relative to the total population, based on the miles they
travel, they have the highest fatality rates, along with the youngest drivers.
In 1997, 17.1 million or 10 perce nt of all licensed drivers were over the age
of 70. The number of over-70 drivers has grown 45 percent in a decade, while
the total number of drivers rose only 13 percent. Drivers over the age of 70
were involved in 8.7 percent of fatal crashes in 1997. Most fa talities
involving older drivers occur during the daytime - 82 percent in 1997 - and 71
percent happen on weekdays. Older-driver de aths are generally not associated
with drinking - they have the lowest rates of intoxication of all adults in
fatal crashes.
Most states issue older drivers restricted licenses SO that they can retain
their mobility and independence. Depending on their ability, older drivers may
be limited to driving during daylight hours, or on non-freeway types of roads.
Of note, in most states restrictions such as these can be placed on anyone's
drivers license, regardless of age, if their medical condition warrants it. Mo
st states (41) require drivers to take a vision test when they renew their
license, regardless of age (see chart). These tests have been found to be an
effective way to lower older drivers' crash risk. (See Background section.)
About half of the states require a road test at renewal for any driver who has
had a certain number of accidents or traffic infractions, and a smaller number
require written tests and medical exams if necessary. At least 14 states
mandate more frequent testing for older drivers than for younger drivers at
license renewal. For instance, in Illinois, drivers over age 75 must take a
road test when they renew their license; in Indiana, road and written tests are
required, in addition to vision testing.
Ten states require doctors to report any dangerous medical conditions that
can impair a patient's driving. Although this requir ement covers drivers of
all ages and a variety of medical conditions, at least one state - California -
specifically requires doctor S to report a diagnosis of dementia, which is a
common symptom of Alzheimer's disease. The urgency of the requirement is
highlighte di by a study of accidents in Sweden and Finland which found that one
third of drivers age 65 to 90 who were killed in crashes had br ain lesions
commonly found in Alzheimer's patients, and another 20 percent had lesions which
may indicate an early form of Alzheimer 's disease. In addition to California's
law requiring doctors to report dementia, Missouri law provides confidentiality
to close fa mily members or doctors who report incompetent drivers to the state
agency that licenses drivers.
A study of 294 drivers aged 55 to 87 tracked over three years found that
those who had a 40 percent or greater impairment in the "useful field of vision"
were 2.2 times more likely to have a crash within the time span of the study.
(The useful field of vision is the area over which people can use quickly
presented information, and depends on attention and rapid processing of
information). The doctors participating in the study, which was reported in the
June 1998 Journal of the American Medical Association, suggest t hat a field of
vision test may be useful in screening risky older drivers.
Aggressive Driving: Aggressive driving, also called road rage, covers a
range of driving behaviors such as tailgating, speeding, and weaving in and
PAGE
4
Insurance Information Institute, May, 1999
out of traffic, at its mildest. The term can also include blowing the horn at
other drivers, using obscene gest ures, high speed duels and at its worst,
gunplay. Observers note that such behaviors were identified as early as 1915
and some say that they are not increasing. NHTSA says that the deaths of nearly
28,000 of the 41, 907 people killed in highway crashes in 1996 we re associated
with road rage. NHTSA's administrator, speaking at a House subcommittee on
transportation hearing in 1997, blamed roa d rage on increased congestion on the
roads leading to driver frustration. The AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety says
that there we re over 10,000 aggressive driving incidents (where an angry
motorist intentionally injured or killed another motorist or pedestrian in
response to a grievance) from 1990 through mid-1996.
The driving public is concerned about their personal safety. An AAA/Gallup
poll showed that 40 percent of those polled say that aggressive drivers are
their biggest concern. The Insurance Research Council found that most people
blame other motorists' behavior rather than road conditions as causes of
aggressive driving. Almost three quarters of respondents in a late 1997 poll
said that a decrease in consideration for others is a major factor in leading to
the increase in aggressive driving, followed by the idea that O ther people are
driving aggressively (65 percent) and the respondents' personal stress (63
percent). A NHTSA survey of 6,000 driver $ found that 60 percent consider
unsafe driving by others a major personal threat and 98 percent feel it is
important to do somethin g about it.
In addition to hearings in the House on the federal level, 17 states have
considered road rage legislation, according to the Nat ional Conference of State
Legislators. In 1998, Arizona enacted a law that makes aggressive driving --
characterized as speeding pl us committing two other infractions such as
tailgating, failure to yield or erratic lane changes, and being an immediate
hazard to a nother driver -- a crime punishable by a 30-day license suspension.
Arizona is the first state in the Union to pass such a law. Ka nsas legislators
have introduced a similar bill, and four other states have aggressive driving
bills pending. About 17 states have formed highway patrol groups to combat
aggressive driving.
Occupant Safety: Passive restraints - air bags and automatic seat belts -
protect vehicle occupants in a crash by restraining p arts of the body that
would otherwise hit the steering wheel, dashboard or other hard surfaces. The
seriousness of injuries in auto accidents depends to some extent on the part of
the vehicle damaged. Frontal crashes, the type of crash for which air bags were
de signed, are most likely to be fatal. NHTSA says that air bags saved 2,663
lives from 1987 to early 1997, 842 in 1997 alone.
NHTSA also reported air bag injuries. Most injuries were minor, but a small
percentage were serious and included fatalities. H owever, compared with the
number of deployments - 1.2 million as estimated by the IIHS - the risk of
injury is very low. Most of th e people who were fatally injured were unbelted
or improperly belted, according to NHTSA. These fatalities can be traced at
least i n part to the fact that older air bags were designed to protect an
unbelted 5-foot, nine-inch, 165-lb. man from injuries in a fronta 1 crash. The
energy from inflating bags can cause injury to small people, especially if they
are not properly restrained. If small children sit unbelted in the front seat,
they can be thrown into the path of a deploying air bag, which inflates with
great force. This risk also applies to small adults who must sit close to the
steering wheel to reach the pedals, pregnant women and the elderly Infants
PAGE
5
Insurance Information Institute, May, 1999
in rear-facing safety seats on the passenger side can be severely injured
because their heads are in the direct path of a n inflating air bag. Despite
the reports of air bag-caused injuries, an Insurance Research Council survey
found that 71 percent of respondents who already have air bags want them on
their next vehicle. The survey, conducted in mid-1997, also found that 72
percen t of all respondents are aware of air bag dangers, up from 51 percent in
the prior year.
Since 1991, NHTSA has been issuing warnings, most recently in writing inside
vehicles and on child safety seats, to shield vulne rable people from air bag
injury, and allowed deactivating air bags in some cases. In early 1997, NHTSA
permitted automakers to "de power" air bags by 25 to 30 percent, an interim
solution as smart systems are being developed. Ford, GM and Chrysler began
installi ng depowered air bags in many 1998 models, and NHTSA crash tests show
that Ford's depowered air bags are as effective as older air b ags. The IIHS
says that no deaths or injuries have been reported in air bag deployments in
1998 or 1999 model year cars. In Januar y 1998, NHTSA allowed auto dealers and
repair shops to install air bag cut-off switches after owners completed a
four-step process a nd NHTSA found the owners eligible. However, by September
1998, about 45,000 owners had permission to install the switches but only 2,300
had them installed because of the threat of liability to shops from those who
may be injured in the vehicles. NHTSA is expec ted to issue final rules on
upgraded air bag tests, which include dummies representing children and small
adults along with the aver age male.
Latest developments in occupant safety are the addition of side air bags in
more vehicle models, and NHTSA's final rule allowing car makers to install head
protection systems, similar to air bags, to provide more protection in side
impacts. The rule, expected to save 1,200 lives each year and $ 900 million in
economic costs, will be phased in beginning with 1999 model cars. However, the
r ule does not have strength specifications and there is evidence that side air
bags can injure small passengers slumped in their seat $ or "out of position."
Advanced air bag protection was included in the 1998 transportation funding law
which requires auto makers to phase in improved air bags that will minimize
injury to infants, children and other occupants beginning September, 2002.
Seat belt use laws are on the books in all states except New Hampshire.
However, only 15 states and the District of Columbia hav e primary enforcement
laws, which allow law enforcement officers to stop a car for non-compliance with
seat belt laws (see chart.) Primary laws are pending in at least four states.
In states with weaker secondary enforcement laws, drivers may be stopped only if
they are violating other traffic safety laws as well. Seat belts saved an
estimated 10, lives in 1997 and are effective in prote cting occupants from
ejection, one of the most injurious results of a crash. In addition, NHTSA says
that in 1995 average hospital costs for unbelted crash victims were 55 percent
higher than for belted victims. By January 1998, national seat belt usage was
69 p ercent, based on DOT's weighted average of state surveys.
Insurer Activity: Air Bag Issues: Insurers, concerned about the possibility
of an increase in injuries as a result of air bag deactivation, are active in
getting the air bag safety message out to the public about the efficacy of air
bags and seat belts. One insurer is tracking vehicles that are allowed by NHTSA
to deactivate air bags. NHTSA's final ruling did not specify how insurers WO
uld be notified regarding which vehicles had deactivated air bags, and insurers
are concerned that the lack of information will make it difficult to continue
PAGE
6
Insurance Information Institute, May, 1999
to reward policyholders who own air bag-equipped vehicles with discounts, and
that used car buyers will no t be able to determine whether a vehicle's air bag
has been disconnected. (See Insurer Discounts.)
Motorcycle Helmets: Motorcycles account for under 2 percent of all
registered motor vehicles and only 0.4 percent of vehicle mi les traveled.
However, per vehicle mile, motorcycles are about 15 times as likely as car
occupants to die in a crash and about 3 ti mes as likely to be injured. In
1997, 2,106 motorcyclists died in crashes, and 43 percent of fatally injured
motorcycle drivers and 51 percent of fatally injured passengers were not wearing
motorcycle helmets. That year, helmets saved 486 lives, and NHTSA says t hey
would have saved 266 more if all motorcyclists had worn helmets. An earlier
study showed that motorcycle helmets prevent fatali ties in 33 percent of
motorcycle crashes and brain damage in 67 percent. The average charge for
hospital care after a crash for mot orcyclists not wearing helmets and who
sustain brain injuries is more than twice that of motorcyclists who wear
helmets. Despite th e fact that motorcyclists not wearing helmets were over
three times as likely to suffer a brain injury than helmeted motorcyclists, only
22 states and the District of Columbia have laws on the books that require all
motorcyclists to wear helmets. Motorcyclists' 1 obbying groups campaign
vigorously to oppose helmet laws, citing a preference for personal freedom over
the benefits of the helmets.
Crashworthiness: Crashworthiness relates to what carmakers refer to as
"crumple zones,' "crash zones" and "safety cages." Thes e are designed to
provide crash protection by placing a rigid steel cage around the passenger
compartment. To absorb crash energy, sections in the front and rear of the
vehicle are designed to crumple in a crash. An effective and uniform bumper
standard for all passenger vehicles would reduce collision damage and thus lower
insurance premiums. Currently, standards specifying that bumpers an d
safety-related equipment must withstand a 2.5-mph crash without sustaining
damage apply to passenger cars, but not to minivans, de spite their popularity
as passenger vehicles. Before the 1982 model year, bumpers had to withstand
5-mph crashes without damage. I n its latest series of tests designed to test
bumper strength at 5 mph, the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS)
found that out of seven small utility vehicles in four tests, only two sustained
less than $ 3,000 in total damage.
Sport Utility Vehicles (SUVs) There are about 2.7 million SUVs on the road
in the United States, up from about 930,000 in 199 0. SUVs generally are larger
and heavier than standard passenger cars, have higher horsepower, stiffer frames
which do not dissipat e the force of an impact, and a high potential for
rollover. In addition, they have higher bumpers which do not match those of
pass enger cars and inflict greater damage to cars in collisions and result in
more injuries. While these factors are reflected in physi cal damage rates, the
majority of insurers have not changed liability rates.
In order to alleviate some of the problems with SUVs, at least two motor
vehicle manufacturers, Mercedes-Benz and Ford, have mad e corrections for
incompatablities in their SUVs. However, other manufacturers are planning to
introduce even larger and heavier mod els in the near future, which may worsen
mismatch problems, according to the IIHS. In addition, the DOT requires a new,
more notice able design for the mandatory rollover warning sticker that must be
placed on SUVs, that includes the words "higher rollover risk".
PAGE
7
Insurance Information Institute, May, 1999
Generic Crash Parts: Crash parts, the most frequently damaged in crashes,
are cosmetic sheet metal parts that do not affect the operation of a vehicle.
Auto repair shops have two sources for these parts: the original equipment
manufacturer (OEM) or "competit ive" producers of generic parts who are not
associated with automakers (See Background.) The issue of using generic crash
parts has been raised in about a dozen state legislatures in 1999, and include
bills that may have provisions that limit insurer use of gener ic parts to cars
that are older than two model years, allow policyholders to contest their use,
and require policyholders to be info rmed of the types of parts used to repair
their cars.
In 1998 the United States Supreme Court let stand a lower court ruling in
Illinois that granted class action status to a policyh older lawsuit against
State Farm Mutual Auto Insurance Co. involving the insurer's use of generic
parts. The case involves policyho lders in Illinois who claim that the insurer
calculates auto repair estimates using the price of generic crash parts, which
are usua lly less expensive. Plaintiff's lawyers argued that the uniformity of
State Farm's claims settlement practices merited the inclusio n of all
policyholders whose vehicles were repaired by State Farm.
Industry groups and attorneys general of a handful of states had petitioned
the Supreme Court to review the Illinois decision to grant class action status
because the policies are governed by the laws of the states in which they were
issued. Consumer groups a lso filed briefs supporting State Farm by
highlighting the price declines in automakers' parts due to competition from
generic part manufacturers. The Supreme Court's rejection paves the way for a
class action suit in summer 1999 that could cover 5 million policy holders and
involve claims valued at more than $ 2 billion. In January, similar lawsuits
seeking class action status were filed agai nst Allstate and GEICO in Arizona.
Insurer Discounts: Some insurers offer substantial premium discounts on the
medical care or personal injury protection (no-faul t) part of auto insurance
policies to the owners of automobiles equipped with air bags and automatic seat
belts. Discounts given fo r passive restraints by the top 10 auto insurers,
which account for over half of the auto insurance market, range from 5-60
percent. Six states require insurers to give discounts for cars equipped with
air bags, and four states mandate discounts for passive restr aints. (Discounts
for air bags may be cancelled if owners deactivate them). At least two states -
Florida and New York - require i nsurers to give discounts for cars equipped
with the anti-lock brakes, which are designed to improve steering control and
stability of handling when the car is brought to a stop. Some insurers have
nationwide discounts in place. Research on the effectiveness of a nti-lock
brakes conducted since 1994 has been inconclusive. Studies by insurance groups,
NHTSA, auto makers, and others have produc ed contradictions. The IIHS says
that more study is needed to discern why the brakes appear effective on the test
track but not in actual crashes, and that the reason why the brakes haven't
produced underwriting benefits is not yet clear. In fact, in 1995, at le ast
one insurance company discontinued discounts for anti-lock brakes. One factor
in the disappointing results may be the fact that drivers need to be re-trained
to use the brakes effectively.
Cellular Phones: NHTSA says that there are 50 million cellular phone
subscribers in the U.S. today, and 100 million are forecas t to be in use by the
year 2000. Drivers using cell phones increase their risk of having an accident
four-fold, according to a stud y in the New England Journal of Medicine
PAGE
8
Insurance Information Institute, May, 1999
published in early 1997. Researchers at the University of Toronto studied the
telephone re cords of 700 drivers who had had accidents and who owned cell
phones, and concluded that 170 of them had used the phones within 10 m inutes of
the crash. The risk of having a crash while using a cell phone is four times
higher than when a phone is not being used. Not all of the drivers were at
fault in all the collisions, showing that they may be distracted from avoiding
collisions. Using a hands-free phone did not appear to improve crash risk.
A NHTSA study released in January reiterates previous findings that driver
inattention is a primary factor in about half of all crashes in the United
States. The study found that using cell phones while driving in some cases
causes driver inattention and dist raction similar to the factors that are known
to increase crash risk. Because the data in the study came from a small sample,
the a gency does not draw conclusions regarding the magnitude of safety-related
problems linked to cell phone use but says that since its use is growing, data
collection and reporting should be improved and more research should be
conducted. A 1997 survey by the Insura nce Research Council found that 27
percent of vehicle owners have cellular phones. In addition, 84 percent of cell
phone users beli eve that using their phones while driving is a distraction and
increases the risk of crashes. However, 61 percent use their phones while
driving at least some of the time, and 30 percent report using their phones
frequently. Britain, Brazil, Switzerland and Isra el ban cell phone use while
driving. In the United States, legislation has been proposed in a handful of
states but to date no stat e has enacted a law to restrict the use of cell
phones while driving.
Red Light Running: The NHTSA says that in 1997 there were 1,114 traffic
deaths at intersections where drivers ran red lights. T he most common reason
given for red light running, according to NHTSA's 1998 survey of 800 drivers
between the ages of 18 and 65, wa $ that the drivers were in a hurry (54
percent). Two out of every three Americans see other drivers run red lights
every day, and a lmost all of those polled (96 percent) fear they will be struck
at an intersection by a red light runner. One in every three respon dents say
they personally know someone who was killed or injured in a red light-running
crash-about the same amount of people who kn OW someone who was involved in a
drunk driving crash. Earlier in 1998, the Insurance Institute for Highway
Safety estimated that re d light runners were responsible for 260,000 crashes
each year, about 750 of them fatal. Red light runners were profiled as being y
oung, having poor driving records, high alcohol blood concentrations, and living
in cities. Red light cameras-which automatically p hotograph offenders-have
been installed in about 20 localities in 10 states in which they are permitted,
and in the District of Colu mbia. An IIHS study of a California location showed
that red light running dropped 42 percent after they cameras were used at 9 int
ersections; in Alexandria, Virginia about 7,500 red light runners were caught by
police in less than six months.
Background
Seat-Belt Usage Laws and Air Bags: Research on the effects of car crashes on
the human body was conducted as far back as the 19 40s and 1950s, but it was not
until the mid-1970s that a small number of cars were sold with air bags. About
10 years went by befor e federal legislators and regulators were convinced that
air bags, used with lap and shoulder belts, could save a significant number of
lives.
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9
Insurance Information Institute, May, 1999
In 1981, Sate Farm Insurance Company petitioned the U.S. Court of Appeals to
review the Department of Transportation's decision to rescind the automatic
restraint standards opposed by auto manufacturers. The case, eventually
advocated by a group of insurers, was finally heard by the U.S. Supreme Court
which ruled in 1983 that DOT had erred in delaying the implementation of air
bags. By 1 984, DOT ordered all 1990 cars to be equipped with automatic
restraints.
U.S. auto manufacturers had been long opposed to air bags because of their
cost; they also contended that the technology was unp roven and that air bags
had virtually no effect unless a seat belt also is used. By 1988, the benefits
of air bags were proven by t he results of fleet use by insurers and government
agencies. However, by the 1990s, reports began to surface that air bag
deploymen t had caused injuries and deaths. Although some of the deaths
resulted from not using seatbelts, or improperly using them, it becam e apparent
that children, the elderly and people of small stature were vulnerable in air
bag deployments.
The first seatbelt use law was enacted by New York in 1984; by 1996, only
one state, New Hampshire, did not have a seat belt law In at least half a
dozen states, efforts were made to repeal seat-belt laws on the basis that they
are an intrusion into personal freedom. Such repeals were rejected in Iowa and
Tennessee, but were successful in Massachusetts, Nebraska and North Dakota.
(Thes e states now have seat belt laws, see chart at end of paper.) In an
important court test of mandatory seat-belt use laws in Illinoi S, the state's
Supreme Court ruled in October 1986 that the state's seat-belt use law does not
violate personal rights and that Illi nois justices were wrong in 1969 when they
struck down a law requiring motorcyclists to wear helmets. Lower courts had
cited that r uling in voiding tickets for seat-belt law violators.
Seat belt use is a behavior that needs to become a habit to be effective.
Studies show that usage will decline from initially h igh levels unless there is
continuing publicity and enforcement. Auto safety experts and insurance
companies promoted the use of se at belts for every car trip, not just during
highway driving. According to the Alliance of American Insurers, 75 percent of
injury- causing traffic accidents occur within 25 miles of home and 80 percent
of serious and fatal injuries occur in vehicles traveling les S
than 40 mph. Some people fail to buckle up because they are afraid of being
trapped inside their car by their seat belt. Howev er, the chance of being
killed in an auto accident is 25 times greater when a driver or passenger is
thrown out of the car.
According to a 1995 NHTSA report, states that have enacted seat belt use
laws had about a 12.6 percent decrease in fatalities. States that have primary
enforcement of their laws had an additional 5.9 percent drop in fatalities. The
study also found that seat belt use is lower in pickups, vans and older
vehicles, and lower where alcohol is involved, if the accident occurred at
night, and in the rear seats. Seat belt use increases with age, and is higher
among women.
Seat-belt laws by themselves are not a total solution to the problem of
highway deaths and injuries. In low- to moderate-speed crashes (up to about 25
mph head-on) lap/shoulder belts are effective. But in crashes at higher speeds,
even belted occupants may h it steering columns, windshields, and dashboards,
PAGE
10
Insurance Information Institute, May, 1999
especially with their faces and heads, although injuries sustained almost always
a re less severe than they would be without belts. The combination of an air
bag plus a seat belt is a much more effective restraint system than either
device alone.
Older Drivers: State-mandated tests for the visual acuity of older drivers
are an effective way to lower the fatal crash risk O f those drivers, according
to researchers at the University of Baltimore and the Johns Hopkins University.
The researchers analyzed all fatal crashes from the National Highway Traffic
Safety Administration (NHTSA) that involved at least one driver age 70 and over
The study, reported in the Journal of the American Medical Association,
showed that in the 38 states that mandated vision tests f or license renewals at
the time of the study, drivers in this age group were involved in 17.2 fatal
accidents per 100, older driv ers. In states where no testing was required,
the ratio was 18.7 fatal crashes. The researchers say that the decline in the
ratio is small but significant, especially since the number of 70 and older
drivers will grow to 30 million by the year 2020.
Some 41 states require drivers to take vision tests at license renewal,
regardless of age (see chart). Older drivers object to blanket restrictions on
their driving privileges, citing the wide differences in the way the aging
process affects individuals. Som e older drivers, aware of their limitations,
do not drive at night or during rush hours, and avoid left turns. They take
drivers' e ducation courses, offered by such groups as the American Association
of Retired Persons, and some earn discounts on their auto insur ance.
After Market or Crash Parts: The term "crash parts" refers to parts most
frequently damaged in automobile accidents. There are no federal standards for
these sheet metal parts because they do not significantly affect the safety or
crashworthiness of a vehicl e. Auto repair shops have two sources for these
parts -- the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) parts, or "competitive"
replacem ent parts not associated with auto manufacturers. Competitive
replacement parts are cheaper than OEM parts, but in the past, OEMs, consumer
groups and others said that the parts were of inferior quality. Standards have
now been developed and insurance companies have been encouraging the use of
non-OEM parts to control costs. In fact some insurers consistently use non-OEM
parts.
Some consumers object to the use of non-OEM parts when their vehicle is
repaired, usually because they have new or expensive car S that they want to
maintain in their original condition. In response, about 40 states now require
insurers to notify their policyh olders that non-OEM parts will be used in
collision repair. Alabama and a handful of other states have gone further and
restrict th e use of non-OEM parts. Insurance company practices in this area
differ. In some cases, consumers can pay the difference between O EM and
non-OEM parts.
Speed Limits: The Surface Transportation and Uniform Relocation Assistances
Act (STURRA) of 1987 allowing states to increase th e speed limit from 55 mph to
65 mph applies only to certain parts of the interstate highway system. These
stretches must be outside urbanized areas with populations of 50,000 or more, as
designated by the Bureau of the Census. The issue whether to increase speed
limits on rural stretches of the interstate highway system was precipitated in
early 1987 by the announcement that Arizona and Verm ont would lose up to 10
percent of their federal highway subsidies for failing to effectively enforce
PAGE
11
Insurance Information Institute, May, 1999
the speed limit which was then 55 mph. (However, in January 1987, DOT imposed
on Arizona a minimal fine of one percent or $ 510,000.) Observers noted that the
la W was flouted in all 50 states and about 20 states had undermined federal law
by reducing penalties for speeding.
Data showing higher speed means more death is reiterated annually in studies
conducted by the IIHS comparing highway crashes in states that raised their
speed limit to 65 mph. Results from 1994 data show that the 65 mph rural
interstate speed limits cause abo ut 15-20 percent more deaths than otherwise
expected. Both IIHS and federal studies show that about 400 lives are lost each
year in states that have raised their limits to 65 mph.
Speeding by radar detector owners has been well documented. The Insurance
Institute for Highway Safety says that drivers with r adar detectors reduced
their speeds by at least 5-mph or activated their brake lights when suddenly
exposed to police radar. Before exposure, these vehicles traveled significantly
faster. By one mile past the radar, over three-quarters of vehicles with radar
det ectors were traveling at least 5 mph faster than the speed limit.
Technological advances utilizing computers, laser guns, and other equipment have
enabled law enforcement agencies to identify and ticket speeders despite their
use of radar detectors. In addition, where radar detectors are prohibited by
law, police can use devices that identify radar detector use and then confiscate
the illega 1 devices.
Bumpers: The federal government's current requirement is that an auto bumper
be able to withstand a crash impact of 2.5 mph. P reviously, the standard was 5
mph and excluded any damage to the bumper itself. Some auto manufacturers are
voluntarily returning t O a 5-mph bumper due to pressure from the insurance
industry and consumer groups. However, insurance industry representatives note
that the auto industry's "so-called" 5 mph bumpers incur huge repair costs after
5-mph impacts. NHTSA estimates of net economic sav ings to the public from a
strong 5-mph bumper regulation range from $ 400 million to $ 1 billion annually.
Truck Safety: A 1985 General Accounting Office report suggested that
increased oversight could improve the safety of interstate trucking and
recommended adoption of more consistent investigation and enforcement criteria.
Transport officials say deterioration in trucking equipment and driving
standards, which was seen as a major cause of such accidents, was in part the
result of the 1980 deregulation of the trucking industry. In response, the
Motor Carrier Safety Act of 1986, which was designed to phase in various re
gulations through 1992, was enacted. The federal government also increased
funds available to states for training truck inspection teams and, as a result,
more trucks were ordered off the road.
According to IIHS, more than 4,700 people die each year in crashes involving
large trucks. Most of the people killed are occupa nts of other vehicles.
Although large trucks amounted to 3.3 percent of all registered vehicles in 1993
(the latest year available for truck registrations), they accounted for 8.4
percent of all fatal crashes in 1994.
Many states have enacted laws to issue licenses under the Commercial Driver
License Program, to implement the 1986 Commercial Mo tor Vehicle Safety Act.
This law, among other things, requires the uniform testing and licensing of
truck and bus drivers. When a driver obtains his or her license, the driver's
name and Social Security number is placed in a national computer data base to
PAGE
12
Insurance Information Institute, May, 1999
help e liminate situations that allow drivers to obtain more than one license.
Accident Data: In the United States, two organizations release fatality
rates -- deaths per hundred million vehicle miles trave led -- the DOT through
FARS and the National Safety Council. There are two major differences between
the figures. FARS data is rele ased to the public calculated to one decimal
place whereas the National Safety Council releases data calculated to two
decimal place S. The National Safety Council reported the fatality rate at 1.76
in 1996, down slightly from 1.79 in 1995. The FARS rate for
1996 released to the public was 1.7, a number that is basically unchanged
since 1993. But when it is calculated on the same bas is as the National Safety
Council the 1994 figure is 1.73. Thus, both organizations show the fatality
rate down slightly when calcu lated to the second decimal point. The second
major difference is related to the time period within which the crash victim
dies of his or her injuries. Under the FARS system, deaths occurring within 30
days of a crash are included in the total. The National Saf ety Council
includes deaths that occur within a year of the crash, accounting for its higher
death rate.
BIBLIOGRAPHY:
Additional Information
Publications issued by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety.
"Traffic Safety Facts" and other reports issued by the U.S. Department of
Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Admini stration.
"Safety Belt Use Laws: Evaluation of Primary Enforcement and Other
Provisions," U.S. Department of Transportation, National Hig hway Traffic Safety
Administration, 1995.
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
LOAD-DATE: JUNE 24, 1999
PAGE
22
LEVEL 1 - 22 OF 28 STORIES
Copyright 1999 MGN Ltd.
The Mirror
April 22, 1999, Thursday
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 8, 9
LENGTH: 1094 words
HEADLINE: THE TRENCHCOAT MAFIA MASSACRE: THIS WILL HAPPEN AGAIN AND AGAIN AND
AGA IN.. UNTIL AMERICA TELLS ITS CHILDREN: GUNS ARE EVIL;
211,000,000 FIREARMS BLIGHT A NATION
BYLINE: Chris Hughes And Fiona Cummins
BODY:
IT'S the greatest love of the American lifestyle - and the most lethal. It's
the gun.
The image we have here of the US is no longer the wholesome mom, apple pies
and stars and stripes one.
When we think of America now, we associate it with massacre and bloodshed.
Worse still we think of innocent school children cut down in playgrounds and
classrooms by crazed gunmen.
Yet the US seems to insist on allowing its people to carry weapons and the
most talked about issue across the States is a citizen's rights to bear arms.
Stop a man or a woman in the street in Los Angeles and they are more likely
to be carrying a pistol than a pack of cigarettes.
The West was won by the gun. But 200 years later the descendants of those
gunslinging pioneers have still not put their weapons down.
There are an estimated 211 million guns in the States. Handgun murders in
1996 stood at 9,390.
That was 300 times more than in Britain where a ban on privately-owned
handguns was introduced following the Dunblane massacre. Firearms have been used
to kill more than 60,000 people in America in the last two years.
And every six hours a US teenager commits suicide by shooting.
But two thirds of Americans say tightening gun controls removes a "citizen's
liberty".
So what are the politicians doing to try to stem the tide of gun horrors?
Hedging his bets - and with a sharp eye on the voter possibilities, - last
night President Bill Clinton cancelled a trip to the opening of a Texas airport
and warily hinted of more moves to control guns.
He said: "America has a responsibility to do everything we can to make sure
this doesn't make 1999 a year like last year.
PAGE
23
The Mirror, April 22, 1999
"That we don't have another rash of this, that we really can be more
effective in preventing it." He had already passed the Brady Law in 1993 which
means you need five days notice to purchase a gun.
But you can still buy one on the Internet and most Los Angeles
schoolchildren could lay their hands on a gun within an hour.
Statistics show that an estimated 1. 2million children have access to weapons
when they are alone at home.
A report last year revealed nearly one million teenagers carried guns to
school.
And SO the slaughter continues, despite a series of gun horrors by children
on other children and adults.
Last year four pupils and a teacher at an Arkansas school were shot dead by
two schoolboys
Andrew Golden and Mitchell Johnson gunned them down using an arsenal of
weapons most British kids haven't even heard of.
A wave of revulsion and outrage swept across America and there were furious
calls for stricter gun controls.
Campaigners screamed for a very basic law to make gun owners accountable for
their weapons. But in a stunning example of how strong the American pro-gun
lobby is even that failed to get through the courts.
In America a gun comes off the production line every 20 seconds. And someone
is shot by one every two minutes.
The States has no worse a crime rate than anywhere else in the world - if
you delete the word gun from those statistics.
Washington based lobby group Handgun Control recently launched a new
campaign for stricter gun laws.
Their chillingly effective poster reads: "In 1996, handguns murdered two
people in New Zealand; 13 people in Australia; 15 in Japan; 30 in Great Britain;
106 in Canada; 213 in Germany and 9,390 in the United States.
"God Bless America."
And after yesterday's massacre in Colorado the powerful National Rifle
Association - led by screen legend Charlton Heston and with 2.8 million members
- was preparing itself for a new barrage of calls for sweeping changes in gun
laws.
Amazingly, right-winger Heston's reaction to the shooting was to call for
the near-militarisation of schools with armed guards. He said: "If course this
was a tragedy. But if there was just one armed guard in that school it could
have been prevented.
PAGE
24
The Mirror, April 22, 1999
"You have to blame the parents of these two boys. People have to be taught
that actions have consequences. There are millions of guns in private hands in
America.
"In states where people can legally carry concealed weapons there has been a
sharp drop in crime."
So with two thirds of the US against a gun ban how can the anti-gun lobby
succeed?
The right to bear arms is enshrined in the Second Amendment and the concept
of giving them up seems simply beyond many American's understanding.
Even Dick Young, superintendent at the Westside Middle School where the
Arkansas killings took place, echoed the cynicism over banning guns.
He said last night: "Look, the gun is just the instrument. What about the
individual responsible.
"It's not about banning guns. but about holding people accountable for their
actions. Parents should be responsible. They tried to pass laws after what
happened here and it failed. You don't ban guns in America."
And Professor James Wright, of Tulane University, New Orleans, added:
"Firearms are the most commonly owned piece of sporting equipment in the US with
the exception of trainers.
"If half of households own guns and their presence incites acts of violence,
bodies would be piled three deep. But they are not."
Most pro-gun Americans cite self defence as a reason to carry a weapon. But
a Seattle-based study found for every self-defence killing of an intruder in the
home there were 42.9 other deaths caused by guns including murder and accidental
shootings.
There is evidence of some hope in pockets of America.
A referendum in Missouri earlier this month rejected the proposed lifting of
the ban on carrying concealed weapons.
However, it is just one of seven states where it is illegal to have a
concealed gun.
With that in mind it looks like being a long time before America ends its
love affair with the gun and finally teaches its children the evils of
weapons. WEAPONS FACTFILEHANDGUNS kill 60 in the US every day, including 12
children.
US citizens own 211 million guns - a third are handguns.
A NEW handgun is produced every 20 seconds and is used to shoot someone
every two minutes.
EACH day handguns are used in an average 33 rapes, 575 robberies and 1,116
assaults.
PAGE 25
The Mirror, April 22, 1999
ONLY one in 44 gun fatalities in the US involves self-defence against an
intruder.
SHOOTING is the leading cause of death for African-American males aged 15 to
24.
A CHILD under the age of 18 uses a gun to commit suicide every six hours.
MORE people are killed in Los Angeles from suicide and murder using guns
than are killed in car crashes.
GRAPHIC: GRUESOME TRADE: But scenes like this in a US gun shop are a way of
life; TERROR:; Gun-loving Andrew Golden and pal shot pupils dead; USA SCHOOL
EQUIPMENT
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
LOAD-DATE: April 22, 1999
PAGE
15
LEVEL 1 - 12 OF 28 STORIES
Copyright 1999 St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Inc.
St. Louis Post-Dispatch
May 1, 1999, Saturday, FIVE STAR LIFT EDITION
SECTION: NEWS, Pg. 8
LENGTH: 692 words
HEADLINE: CITY'S SUIT INCLUDES ARGUMENTS USED IN CASES BY OTHER STATES, CITIES
BYLINE: Yuki Noguchi; Of The Post-Dispatch Washington Bureau
DATELINE: WASHINGTON
BODY:
St. Louis' suit against gun makers comprises a blend of arguments borrowed
from other cities' suits. These include:
- Product liability. Guns are unregulated by the Consumer Product Safety
Commission, and therefore cannot be recalled or held to safety standards. But
the city of New Orleans is arguing that they should be regulated for safety and
that the absence of safety devices is a product defect.
- Public nuisance. This argument has not been tested in court but may work
for Chicago, which, unlike St. Louis, bans the sale and possession of handguns
within city limits. The argument is that an oversupply of guns, like pollution,
is a public nuisance.
- Negligent marketing. This argument says the industry has a duty to take
measures preventing guns from reaching criminals in areas where gun laws are
stricter. It accuses the industry of oversupplying a market, knowing the guns
will be resold into the hands of criminals. This argument won two private cases
in Brooklyn.
St. Louis' suit, filed Friday in St. Louis Circuit Court, accuses the
industry of raking in profits at the expense of the public's health and welfare.
It accuses 27 defendants - gun manufacturers, distributors and a retail shop -
of discouraging the development and installation of safety features on guns,
failing to take steps to prevent illegal gun sales, and endangering the public's
safety.
Carl W. Yates III, the main attorney working on the case, says the city has
not decided how much to seek in damages. The sum will be proportionate to other
cities' claims, which range in the hundreds of millions.
Detroit and Wayne County, Mich., filed suits Monday against 35 gun makers,
retailers and distributors, seeking $ 800 million.
St. Louis' suit joins a legal debate that already has become heated.
Pro-gun policy analyst H. Sterling Burnett, at the National Center for Policy
Analysis, says many cities are arguing that gun makers negligently distribute
their guns, but wholesalers and retailers can't be expected to control what
happens with their products. Where the gun travels after the sale, or what it
PAGE
16
St. Louis Post-Dispatch, May 1, 1999
is used for, is not the gun industry's responsibility, he said.
John Lowy, senior attorney at the Center to Prevent Handgun Violence and
co-counsel in three of the city suits, said the cases against the industry are
"very strong lawsuits, and the gun industry recognizes that." The National Rifle
Association's decision to scale back its conference in Denver "shows that the
industry is terrified of even having to explain thei r conduct," he said.
The NRA conference opened Friday in Denver. The event was scaled back after
the school massacre in Littleton, Colo.
Timothy Lytton, a tort law professor at New York University School of Law,
said the goal of the cities' suits is to regulate the gun industry. "Unlike
tobacco, plaintiffs aren't in this business to make money, he said.
Tort suits like St. Louis' are important to make sure the industry abides by
the spirit of the laws that regulate it, Lytton said. "It gives the industry an
incentive to regulate itself," he said.
Gun suits have a 20-year history, Lytton said, but only recently have
specific arguments started to convince some judges and juries that the case
against the industry is legally sound. Cities still need more data about the
criminal market to support cases they're making, he said.
Recent interest in the sale of guns spurred by school shootings may help
cities gather information about gun trafficking that will help their case,
Lytton said. "Press coverage in the 1980s focused on how deadly the gun was. Now
the questions is, 'How did they get hold of it?"'
Gun statistics
- In 1996, 34,000 people died from handgun violence.
- The U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms tracked 3,358 guns in the
city of St. Louis from Aug. 1, 1997, to July 31, 1998. More than a third of
those were used by people under age 24.
- Firearms are used in 70 percent of homicides nationally.
- There are 223 million guns in the United States, according to the Bureau of
Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms.
LANGUAGE: English
LOAD-DATE: May 1, 1999
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LEVEL 1 - 11 OF 28 STORIES
Copyright 1999 News World Communications, Inc.
The Washington Times
May 2, 1999, Sunday, Final Edition
SECTION: PART C; SPECIAL REPORT; Pg. C1
LENGTH: 1984 words
HEADLINE: Despite risks, more use guns in self-defense
BYLINE: Frank J. Murray; THE WASHINGTON TIMES
BODY:
Gunpoint confrontations in which armed private citizens turn the tables on
violent criminals occur with explosive swiftness hundreds, perhaps thousands, of
times each day in the United States.
This guerrilla shooting war is almost invisible to the public, experts say,
because combatants on both sides have qualms about publicity. Its biggest
victories prevent serious crimes and don't seem newsworthy one at a time.
The loud public battles focus on how often citizens fight back, and how
dangerous it is to defend themselves.
Opponents at the extremes of the debate cite estimates that guns are used in
self-defense from 180 times a day to once every 13 seconds, a breath-taking
number even to the National Rifle Association, which culls a handful of such
stories for its monthly magazine feature, "The Armed Citizen."
Whatever the total of potential victims who actually halt crimes with their
own guns - a surprising number of them young women with babes in arms - they are
a quickly growing lot and convinced that they're doing the right thing.
Among them: A pair of elderly grandmothers in snowbound Moses Lake, Ore., who
repelled an attack by four men at home; an Apache Junction, Ariz., church deacon
who wounded an armed robber in his church; and a Bangor, Maine, man who shot a
robber in his front hallway after being slashed with a knife.
They are people who believe it's better to have a gun and not need it than to
need one and not have it.
"I'd do it again in the same situation. I felt we were probably going to get
raped and murdered and whatever. I've still got two shotguns," Marty A.
Killinger, 64, said in an interview this week from the Oregon home she defended
with fellow "pistol-packing grandma" Dorothy Cunningham, 78.
"If you're not willing to defend yourself or your family, you're just going
to be a dead gun owner instead of somebody who is alive and safe," said Phoenix
apartment manager Rory Vertigan, 27, whom the National Rifle Association invited
to yesterday's Denver convention for standing up to three heavily armed men who
murdered a police officer.
Bangor robber Michael Chasse was so surprised when his victim drew a gun that
he pleaded self-defense at his trial. He was sentenced April 2 to 12 years in
PAGE
11
The Washington Times May 2, 1999, Sunday, Final Edition
prison after a jury rejected that claim.
Chasse, 24, a homeless alcoholic with a criminal record, said he slashed
bakery executive Robert Cohen - brother of Defense Secretary William S. Cohen -
only after Mr. Cohen, inside his own house, drew a gun and shot him twice in
the chest and held him until police arrived.
"I saw a man with a gun pointed at me," Chasse testified, saying the knife
fell out of his pocket while he was trying to talk.
But Penobscot County prosecutor Mike Roberts told The Washington Times: "The
defendant would have continued the attack if he had not been shot. Mr. Cohen
hit him twice and he stayed down."
The self-defense claim evoked the oft-told tale that criminals routinely sue
citizens who shoot them in the course of a crime.
"Extremely rare and almost never successful. Normally these lawsuits don't
go far," said New York state Sen. Michael A.L. Balboni, who recalled a
criminal suing unsuccessfully for $1 million after being shot by the owner of an
inn he was burglarizing in Saratoga Springs.
No large numbers of such cases are known either to the Association of Trial
Lawyers of America, whose members would file them, or the American Insurance
Association, which could expect to pay off for a homeowner.
"There may be coverage" from a homeowners' policy against such a suit if the
insured "intended" only to scare the criminal and stop the crime, not
specifically intend to shoot him, a spokesman for the insurance group said.
Mr. Balboni studied the topic for a Fordham Urban Law Journal article last
year and was the prime sponsor of a bill passed two weeks ago to block felons
from "adding the ultimate insult to injury" by going to state courts to profit
from their crimes.
"There's something to be said about closing the loophole, if only to save
people from being victimized twice by having to pay for a defense," Mr. Balboni
said in an interview.
However, police departments occasionally lose such lawsuits. In one such
instance, the New York Transit Authority paid $4.3 million in 1993 to subway
mugger Bernard McCummings for a gunshot wound that paralyzed him nine years
earlier while he was trying to escape from a robbery. The money was tied up for
two more years, however, until state courts in 1995 rejected an attempt to share
that with the injured crime victim, Jerome Sandusky, 83.
Most reported self-defense cases are from 31 states that allow some degree of
carrying a concealed weapon.
Home invaders, store robbers, and carjackers top the list of those who face
gunfire and sometimes death. That was the fate of would-be carjackers who
confronted an FBI agent in a 1998 Maryland case and another who chose a Stanton
Road SE car occupied by three women, all off-duty D.C. police officers who
returned a volley of gunfire.
PAGE
12
The Washington Times May 2, 1999, Sunday, Final Edition
Some incidents are flatly unlawful because the private citizen illegally
possesses a gun. But even in the District of Columbia, which has the toughest
gun laws in America, authorities may tolerate self-defense with an illegal
firearm.
When robber Roger W. Green put a gun to the head of the wife of store owner
In Doi Choi at his Minnesota Avenue SE convenience store on July 25, 1997, Mr.
Choi killed the bandit with a shot in the back. The merchant was not
prosecuted, either for the shooting or for illegal gun possession.
Last week, when officers arrested a Capitol Hill resident who had 23 loaded
guns in his house, Capt. Elliot Gibson noted the situation from a burglar's
perspective: "You definitely would not have wanted to break into that house.
You would have been in big trouble."
The fate of being charged with illegal gun possession was not escaped by Carl
Rowan when the pro-gun-control columnist used a .22 pistol to shoot a midnight
intruder, who turned out to be a teenage skinny-dipper using his backyard pool.
Mr. Rowan's sensational 1988 trial ended in a hung jury and he was not retried.
In his autobiography, Mr. Rowan said he still favors gun control but admits
being vulnerable to a charge of hypocrisy.
But anecdotal incidents are difficult to translate into meaningful nationwide
statistics.
"There isn't any source of information that contradicts the notion that
people who use guns for self-protection come out of the event better off," said
Florida State University criminologist Gary Kleck, whose studies consistently
produce the highest estimates of self-defense with guns - and the most
controversy.
"Kleck really drives most people up the wall," said Patrick A. Langan,
senior statistician for the Justice Department's massive National Crime
Victimization Study (CVS), which tracks annual gun trends. He considers the
data reliable but doesn't break out gun statistics in published tables because
they are incidental findings.
Reliable numbers are a sore point for gun prohibitionists and advocates alike
because the self-defense value of guns is crucial in the political struggle over
curbing the number and readiness of legally owned weapons.
"I think it would have a large bearing on deciding the issue. It's one of
the key factors that keeps gun control from being enacted," said Desmond Riley
of the Coalition to Stop Gun Violence, which he described as "the most radical
gun-control group" for seeking to halt all handgun sales and manufacture.
"You've got to have enough benefit to cancel out the cost of arming criminals
because there's so many guns out there," conceded Mr. Kleck. He said he
converted from being a gun-control advocate who began his studies with the
belief that more guns meant more homicides.
The late criminologist Marvin E. Wolfgang, who opposed "ugly, nasty" guns so
fervently he advocated taking them from the police, wrote four years ago that he
regretted finding Mr. Kleck's study scientifically admirable, cautious and
PAGE
13
The Washington Times May 2, 1999, Sunday, Final Edition
sound.
Mr. Langan said much the same, but in more cautious terms as he explained
why the Justice Department isn't more active on the topic.
"We usually just put out the facts and let others decide whether on balance
it's better to resist. These are really complex questions," Mr. Langan said of
his own reports that defending against rape, robbery or assault helps 65 percent
of the time and makes things worse about 9 percent of the time.
Critics say it is dangerously foolhardy to pull a gun against a criminal.
But unpublished Justice Department figures show the risk is less than the
alternatives.
Crime victims who use guns to repel an attack are injured 17 percent of the
time, less than half as often as crime victims who defend themselves with a
knife.
"About one-fourth of those who don't resist at all are injured, which means
nothing is a guarantee of safety in these situations," said Mr. Kleck, who
challenges the motives of anyone who questions or supports his work.
"Even the NRA uses it as a propaganda ploy. They happen to be facts, but
they are politically useful facts so they are used politically," Mr. Kleck said
in an interview.
"I don't think the gun opponents of the world have any interest in finding
the true number. They all concede it's big, and they're afraid of how big it's
going to be because it's against their prohibitionist agenda," he said.
The Coalition to Stop Gun Violence endorses interpretations of the federal
study that support the low-end estimate of 65,000 defensive gun uses a year, but
agrees that's still a lot. Nationwide it would mean gun owners use weapons to
defend against violent crime more than seven times each hour.
"We understand people are scared of crime and violence, but buying a gun is
not the way to go. The safety that you feel is an illusion," Mr. Riley said,
contending a gun owner is three times more likely to use the weapon against a
relative than against a criminal and five times more likely to kill himself with
it.
Nine researchers are in the ballpark with Mr. Kleck, reporting more than a
million self-defense incidents a year. In 1981 Mr. Kleck found an annual rate
of 800,000 incidents, boosted that to 1.2 million by 1990 and doubled it in 1993
to the current 2.5 million.
"The general pattern was that the better the surveys got, the higher the
numbers got," Mr. Kleck said, describing a nationally representative survey of
4,977 adults that was specific to guns.
Breaking down his numbers to an average 6,850 self-defense incidents every
hour of every day gives pause to Kleck supporters, even at the NRA, which often
trumpets his findings but said it would take a broad definition of defense to
have more than four episodes each minute.
PAGE
14
The Washington Times May 2, 1999, Sunday, Final Edition
"Defensive gun use in this country is a reality, and all estimates of that
number are significant, but numbers high or low don't affect the principle that
there is a fundamental right of self-defense," NRA spokesman Jim Manown said.
Tim Lambert of the University of New South Wales in Brisbane, Australia,
frequently challenges Mr. Kleck's numbers.
"There is overwhelming evidence to prove him wrong, but unlike an urban
legend we know the source of the claim," Mr. Lambert said in an e-mail exchange
with The Times, saying he tracks the subject because gun control is a hot
squabble in Australia as well.
"When a gun is used for defense it is reasonably effective," Mr. Lambert
said, adding that he believes the Justice Department study supports an estimate
of 100,000 to 200,000 defensive uses a year.
"It's a frustrating murky, murky world," Mr. Riley said. "They've got a
hunk of paper that says this, we've got a hunk of paper that says that. After a
while you don't know who to believe.'
Mr. Kleck said the count is not critical to the conclusion.
GRAPHIC: Map, RIGHT TO CARRY: Since the mid-1980s, 22 states have enacted "shall
issue" laws giving private citizens the right to carry concealed weapons or have
strengthened such laws in favor of gun owners., By The Washington Times
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
LOAD-DATE: May 2, 1999
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LEVEL 1 - 8 OF 11 STORIES
Copyright 1999 The Washington Post
The Washington Post
April 25, 1999, Sunday, Final Edition
SECTION: OP-ED; Pg. B07
LENGTH: 800 words
HEADLINE: A Littleton Massacre Every Day
BYLINE: Fred Hiatt
BODY:
What a strange country, the many foreign dignitaries gathered here this
weekend must have thought. America holds itself up as an example to all. And
yet, when it comes to guns and crime and children, it just doesn't seem to get
it.
The heads of state here for NATO's anniversary were too polite to make such
comments. But as the Littleton, Colo., high school shootings pushed Kosovo off
the front pages across the world, others weren't so circumspect. "America, the
gun society, is sick," said Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun.
In 1996, the last year for which comparative statistics are available, there
were 15 handgun-caused deaths in Japan, 30 in Great Britain, 106 in Canada --
and 9,390 in the United States.
Here are some of the factors that have been blamed for the Littleton
massacre: movies, television, the media, the prevalence of abortion, the absence
of religion, bad parents, unaware teachers, school size, class size, racial
prejudice, teenage alienation, the Internet, the World Wide Web, a culture of
death and computer games.
Charlton Heston, spokesman for the National Rifle Association, blamed the
absence of an armed security guard (in fact, one was present). He blamed the
school for allowing the killers to wear black trench coats. He blamed the
parents.
President Clinton talked about hate, prejudice, community policing, conflict
resolution, parental responsibility, violence in the culture and much more. When
he did turn to guns, it was in a careful, triangulating kind of way.
We need, he said, "to strike a better, proper balance between making it
harder for people who are violent to get guns and misuse them, without
interfering with the constructive role that it plays in our society."
Hillary Clinton was more forthright. "We need to stand up and say what needs
to be said about guns and firearms, she said. "Why on earth would we permit any
young person access to the firearms those two young men brought into that
school?"
PAGE
2
The Washington Post, April 25, 1999
Easier for her, you might say; she's only running in New York, where gun
control is favored. He has the whole country.
On the other hand, what is he running for? Why not lead on this issue?
What "constructive role" do handguns play?
In 1996, 4,643 children and teenagers were killed with guns -- 2,866
murdered, 1,309 by suicide, 468 in unintentional shootings. That means 13 every
day -- a Littleton massacre every day.
Some of those murders would take place anyway, but many would not. Some of
the suicides would be attempted, but many would not, and many more could be
treated. The unintentional shootings -- the 6-year-olds playing with a father's
gun -- are preventable deaths.
There will always be angry teenagers. But an angry teenager with a baseball
bat, or even a knife, is likely to cause less mayhem than those armed -- as were
the Littleton killers -- with two sawed-off 12-gauge shotguns, a nine-millimeter
semi-automatic rifle and a nine-millimeter semi-automatic pistol.
"We should teach kids how to resolve conflicts," says Stephen Teret, a
professor at Johns Hopkins University and director of its Center for Gun Policy
and Research. But there are 52 million schoolchildren, he points out. A conflict
resolution program that is 99.9 percent successful will leave 52,000 kids "ready
to commit mayhem. For them, you want to make sure there's not an operable gun
within reach."
How to do that plunges you quickly into the arcana of the gun-control debate:
waiting periods and identity checks, one-purchase-a-month laws and liability
suits. Rep. Carolyn McCarthy wants to require parents to lock their guns away,
holding them responsible if they fail to do so and children then use their
guns in a crime.
Teret, believing that many gun owners oppose anything that interferes with
immediate access, favors instead technology that personalizes guns so that only
their owners can use them. Such technology is available, he says, and getting
cheaper all the time.
This is a worthy debate, but it shouldn't obscure the main points: There are
too many guns in America, too easily accessible to children.
The gun-control fight has gone on so long that there's a tendency to look for
new insights, new approaches, new compromises to jog things along. That's fine.
But sometimes, even in age-old debates, one side is right and the other is
wrong. And sometimes, it takes an outsider to point that out.
"These horrible tragedies can happen anywhere, not just south of the border,"
a Canadian columnist, Jennifer Robinson, wrote in the Gazette of Montreal last
week. "It's just that the next Littleton is more likely to be in the United
States, where guns are a way of life and part of the culture."
It seems obvious to everyone but us.
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LEVEL 1 - 4 OF 28 STORIES
Copyright 1999 Journal Sentinel Inc.
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
June 9, 1999 Wednesday State
SECTION: News Pg. 1
LENGTH: 1077 words
HEADLINE: Almost half of 'crime guns' traced to 1% of sellers, report says
BYLINE: JESSICA MCBRIDE
SOURCE: Journal Sentinel staff
BODY:
About 1% of the more than 100,000 federally licensed firearms dealers in the
country sold nearly half of all traced guns used in crimes last year, U.S. Sen.
Charles Schumer announced in a report that also says he is proposing legislation
to intensify gun dealer regulation.
The report from the New York Democrat says 1,160 gun dealers were the source
of 34,626 "crime guns" in 1998 -- 45% of the guns used in crimes last year that
were successfully traced by the federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms.
The report, released Monday, prominently singles out a West Milwaukee gun
store, Badger Guns & Ammo, as being one of "the very worst" dealers in terms of
the number of crime guns sold. Those 137 dealers, labeled "bad apples," sold
more than 13,000 of the 77,010 crime guns traced in 1998, the report says.
Last month, the Journal Sentinel reported Badger's high number of crime gun
sales and also revealed that the store ranked first nationally in 1998,
according to a study being done by the ATF. The information had not yet been
publicly released at the time.
The ATF has been tracing guns recovered by authorities in some cities for
three years; that effort now encompasses 27 major cities. Badger Guns & Ammo was
the source of more than 1,000 guns traced to crimes during those three years.
The vast majority of the guns were linked to criminal investigations, although a
few were recovered for other reasons.
Schumer said the information opened a "new front" in the "battle for
rational, targeted gun laws," and to that end he announced he would introduce
legislation this week that would target gun dealers who "habitually supply a
large number of crime guns."
The legislation will call for new regulations and reporting requirements for
any dealer that sold more than 10 guns traced to crimes in a given year. In
1998, that would involve 1,160 gun stores, the report says.
In Wisconsin, about 50 of the state's roughly 2,500 dealers had more than 10
crime guns traced to them during the past three years, according to information
obtained by the Journal Sentinel. How many of those would be affected by the
legislation is unclear because the information does not break down individual
years, and a few of the dealers are out of business.
PAGE
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The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel June 9, 1999 Wednesday
The dealers are across the state, including in Eau Claire, Madison, Waukesha
and Racine.
Schumer will propose that these dealers be the target of "unlimited ATF
stings" as well as suspension and revocation of their licenses if they fail to
follow enhanced reporting guidelines or knowingly sell a gun to criminals or
minors.
"Being the source of a lot of crime guns does not necessarily mean that these
dealers are breaking the law, but it cries out for an explanation, Schumer
wrote. "Under my new bill, they would be put on a very short leash. They would
have strict reporting requirements, and any serious violation would mean at
least a 90-day suspension and perhaps permanent shutdown."
Schumer's legislation also would require unlicensed dealers who acquire and
then quickly resell handguns and semiautomatic assault weapons to have licensed
dealers perform background checks and keep records for their sales.
That proposal echoes in some ways an idea advocated by Wisconsin Attorney
General James Doyle after the Journal Sentinel story. Doyle wants a state plan
that would restrict the sale of all handguns with barrels shorter than 4 inches
to state-licensed gun dealers only.
Jeff Roehm, ATF spokesman in Washington, D.C., said the law currently allows
ATF one inspection per year of dealers without a warrant. But he said the ATF
may investigate a dealer's records without a warrant at any time for
investigations into criminal activity that do not involve the dealer -- such as
an investigation into a gun trafficker.
Roehm said the ATF is taking no position on Schumer's report.
Mick Beatovic, one of Badger's three owners, said Tuesday that Schumer's
proposal would not affect his store because Badger already has an "open door
policy" with law enforcement.
"I think to some dealers it will make a difference, but to us it won't make
any difference whatsoever," Beatovic said. "We work very heavily with ATF and
the Milwaukee Police Department, thus our high rate of traces. They wave to us
as they go into the office. We say hi, we buy doughnuts sometimes, we all sit
and have a cup of coffee. Whenever they want, they can come in."
Local police and federal authorities have said there is no evidence Badger
operates illegally. They said the store's high number of crime guns likely stems
from several things, ranging from lack of competition to the sale of cheap
handguns to a problem with straw buyers -- those who buy guns legally for those
who cannot buy them, such as felons.
Beatovic said ATF agents come into Badger sometimes on a daily basis. He said
it was unfair for Schumer to label all dealers with high numbers of traced guns
as "bad apples.'
"I think Mr. Schumer in some instances is right in his report, but in many
instances he's wrong, categorizing every high volume dealer in with those
so-called bad apples," Beatovic said. "We're members of this city also. We're
pro law enforcement."
PAGE
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The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel June 9, 1999 Wednesday
Owners of some other gun dealers in Wisconsin that would likely be affected
declined to comment. One of them, the owner of Rusk Gun Shop Inc. in Madison,
angrily slammed down the telephone when asked about Schumer's proposal. That
store sold 28 guns traced by the ATF during the past three years. Another owner,
of Buckhorn Guns Inc. of Greenfield, said he does not speak to news media. That
store had 60 guns traced.
In addition to singling out the West Milwaukee store, Schumer reported that
during the past three years:
A dealer in Riverdale, Ill., was the source of 1,176 guns traced to crimes.
Seven gun dealers in Chicago suburbs, including that store, sold more than 3,600
crime guns.
A dealer in Bedford Heights, Ohio, was the source of 687 guns traced to
crimes.
Last month in Milwaukee, the information about Badger's ranking sparked calls
for stricter gun control and stricter enforcement of current laws.
It caused Mayor John O. Norquist to predict increased momentum for a gun
lawsuit; Doyle changed the state handgun form to enable for more prosecution of
straw buyers; police launched a round-up of alleged straw buyers; and Badger's
owners removed cheaper handguns from their shelves.
LOAD-DATE: June 10, 1999
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LEVEL 1 - 2 OF 2 STORIES
Copyright 1999 Bangor Daily News
BANGOR DAILY NEWS (BANGOR, MAINE)
January 28, 1999 Thursday
LENGTH: 527 words
HEADLINE: Gun play
BODY:
Inspired by the success states had against Big Tobacco, New
Orleans, Chicago and other cities are readying liability lawsuits
against the handgun industry. A new federal court decision,
however, suggests that Big Firearms will be a more elusive target.
The Brooklyn, N.Y., case seeks to hold gun manufacturers and
wholesalers liable for seven shootings with illegally obtained
handguns; the victims claim the defendants negligently "oversupply"
certain markets, thus increasing the likelihood that guns will end
up in criminal hands. The claim took a hit Tuesday when Judge Jack
Weinstein dropped wholesalers from the suit, saying the plaintiffs
had failed to show a link between each of the 15 named wholesalers
and the specific shootings.
And if the wholesalers, the next-to-last link in the connection
between the assembly line and the street, aren't responsible for
guns ending up in the wrong hands, how can those further removed
from the tragedies be held liable?
As the states did with tobacco, cities are going for the
deepest available pockets. Although violent crime, including murder
rates, are dropping, the numbers are still shocking -- some 24,000
gun deaths per year, including about 500 children accidentally
killed by playmates -- and public outrage is high. Add to that the
states's $ 206 billion settlement with the tobacco industry, plus
the numerous successful liability suits against negligent gun
owners and retail dealers, and the temptation had to be
overwhelming.
But the similarities between shooting and smoking don't run
particularly deep. Tobacco, when used as the manufacturer intends,
is harmful. Firearms, when used as intended, result in sport or
self-protection. Big Tobacco lied about the effects of its product.
Firearms manufacturers sponsor safety programs. Whilethere have
been a few successful defective-product cases brought against
manufacturers, those judgments have been for specific firearms that
failed to perform as designed.
The Brooklyn case, which inspired the larger cases, is based
upon two assertions: that gun manufacturers and wholesalers
concentrate advertising in high-crime areas to increase demand; and
that they flood jurisdictions that have lax gun laws with product
that overflows into the more restrictive places. Gun manufacturers
and wholesalers don't control the circulation of gun-oriented
PAGE
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Bangor Daily News, January 28, 1999 Thursday
magazines, the primary venue for advertising, nor do they write
write the state and local laws regarding gun ownership. Both
arguments are a stretch logically and virtually impossible to
prove.
Probably the best the cities can hope for in their litigation
is a concession by manufacturers to develop more fool-proof safety
devices and to equip every gun with a trigger lock. Those measures
would help prevent accidental shootings but, of course, would leave
untouched the larger problem of crime. It's understandable that
cities would like a quick and sure way to get to those who use guns
to commit crime and who sell guns illegally. It's just unlikely
they 11 find a shortcut through the civil courts.
LOAD-DATE: January 28, 1999
LEVEL 1 - I OF 2 STORIES
Copyright 1997 The Dallas Morning News
THE DALLAS MORNING NEWS
<=|> View Related Topics
June 30, 1997, Monday, HOME FINAL EDITION
SECTION: BUSINESS; WORLD VIEW; Pg. ID
LENGTH: 754 words
HEADLINE: All spin-doctoring in the world won't halt baby boomers' agong
BYLINE: Robert Dodge
DATELINE: WASHINGTON
BODY:
WASHINGTON - The Japanese government must be taking lessons from Washington's
best spin doctors.
Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto has coined a term called active
aging. It is, as Japanese publicists describe it, "a new paradigm" for defining
our attitudes about the elderly.
Have we heard fancy words like these before? Indeed, we have.
They are standard fare from political spin-meisters who want to dress up
controversial proposals with sugar-coated, easy-to-swallow language. These are
the guys who want you to believe that trees cause pollution.
This time, the political wordsmiths are trying to put a positive spin on the
unpleasant solutions to a serious problem facing all the major industrial
countries: Retirement and health care costs threaten to bankrupt the governments
when the baby boom generation retires after the turn of the century.
When you translate active aging into everyday language, it means that
political leaders want people to work later in life, accept fewer benefits and
pay more for them. It's just that simple.
The idea here is to convince people that individuals are living longer,
societies are aging and we all must accept the idea that workers will remain in
the workplace longer. Seniors who remain on the payroll will pay more taxes and
can afford to pay more in premiums for their benefits.
Political leaders know those are unpopular ideas. But they also know there
are few easy ways to deal with the huge expense of paying for the baby boomers
to retire.
Without reforms, federal budget deficits are expected to soar above $ 300
billion after the turn of the century. Medicare is forecast to go broke, and
eventually Social Security would join the critical list. And the problem in
Japan and Europe is even worse.
By 2000, 24 percent of Japan's population will be over 65, rising to 43
percent by 2020. In the United States, those over 65 will be 19 percent of the
population in 2000 and nearly 28 percent in 2020.
The difficulty of paying for retirement benefits worsens, because there are
fewer young workers coming along to sustain government programs by paying taxes.
Currently, the United States has 3.3 people working to support each
retiree. Soon, Japan will have just two workers for each retiree, and
that ratio will eventually drop to one worker for each pensioner.
Political leaders know what must be done, but they've been unwilling to even
discuss the problem until recently. Lawmakers were so afraid of touching
entitlement programs that they called them the third rail of American politics.
Like the electrified third rail, touch it and you would die.
During the 1995-96 budget debate, Republicans dared to grab the third rail
and got fried. They got little credit for efforts to cut Medicare spending or
impose reforms such as managed care on beneficiaries.
Instead, Republicans were hammered by Democrats for attempting to dismantle
the popular programs and are now best remembered for two government shutdowns.
But they set some important precedents.
This year, Democrats and Republicans in the Senate have boldly proposed that
upper-income beneficiaries pay for more of their Medicare benefits. And they
also suggested raising the age of eligibility for Medicare to 67 from 65.
The senior lobby, most notably the American Association of Retired Persons,
is already trying to kill the proposals. They may even be successful. But over
the long term, these are the kind of reforms that experts say will be needed to
keep Medicare, Social Security and other programs from bankrupting the
government.
Without attention, retirement costs would eat up an unsustainable percentage
of each nation's total output of goods and services. Retirement and health care
costs are projected to soak, up 45 percent of Germany's output of goods and
services by 2030.
Retirement costs in Italy would eat up 109 percent of that country's total
economic output.
Some countries are pursuing solutions other than sacrifice.
For instance, Canada is allowing more young immigrants to enter the country,
figuring they will get jobs and pay taxes to sustain the government's programs.
Adopting policies to stimulate each nation's economy also are important.
For the United States, that means making good on promises to balance the
budget, improve education and provide a favorable climate for business
investment.
And educating beneficiaries and taxpayers about the problem is important,
too. But let's skip the spin and shoot straight.
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
LOAD-DATE: July 1, 1997
HEADLINE: WRITING RESUMES;
FOR THE GOLDEN YEARS;
CLEVELAND SENIOR JOB FAIR GIVES OLDER WORKERS A CHANCE;
TO BEAT BOREDOM AND MAKE MONEY WITH A SECOND CAREER
BYLINE: By MARCUS GLEISSER; PLAIN DEALER REPORTER
BODY:
Seventy-year-old Phil Pampus of Euclid has had a long career in sales ranging
from insurance to furniture. Now he is looking for a second career "to keep
active and make a few bucks."
Pampus, who now works part time selling table covers, is in the vanguard of a
small but growing trend in the nation's labor force: people beyond what is
traditionally considered retirement age who are actively working or seeking
work.
Pampus joined about 300 older workers yesterday at the Cleveland Senior Job
Fair in the City Hall rotunda. The fair was sponsored by the American
Association of Retired Persons and Cleveland's Department of Aging.
Like Pampus, most participants said their main goal was to stay active, to
fight off boredom and make some money while working part time.
Among the 48 companies recruiting at yesterday's job fair were home
health-care companies, banks, retailers and services that train nannies. The
employers - ranging from Huntington Bank to Willcare, a home health-care company
- said they covet older workers because of their dependability and strong work
ethic.
From 1980 to 1994, the number of people 65 and older who were working grew
from 3.1 million to 3.9 million, according to Census Bureau statistics.
In March, about 3.8 million people 65 and older were in the labor force -
including 117,000 who are unemployed and looking for work, according to the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics. That's a fraction of the 31.7 million people 65 and
older in the United States, but the number of those looking to re-enter the
labor force continues to grow, the bureau reports.
Numbers alone do not tell the whole story, said Glenn Northup, 66, director
of the AARP Senior Community Service Employment Program in Washington, D.C.
"More people at 65 or older need the money," he said, adding that his
statistics show more than 6 million people over 55 live at or below the poverty
line.
"And the trend toward business downsizing is a major factor." Northup, a
24-year AARP veteran, said he has also observed rising numbers of older people
coming to his office in search of work. Northup said that, as a side benefit,
older people who work seem to live longer.
"It may be a psychological need to feel productive, but we find fewer strokes
or heart attacks among those who keep working," he said.
The AARP recently completed a study of 500 men and women 65 and over to
compare blood-pressure readings when they started to work and a year later. The
study found that, in most cases, blood pressure dropped as the workers developed
self-esteem on the job, Northup said.
The older job seekers at the City Hall job fair say they crave the
independence as well as the additional income.
Nora Perry, 77, who once worked as a maid supervisor at two area hotels and
an apartment complex, is now looking for part-time work as a housekeeper. "I
like to be independent and I like to travel, and you can't do that living only
on Social Security," she said.
Dick Butler, 60, is not yet eligible for Social Security, but he says he's
bored doing odd jobs and needs more money. He has worked in technical sales,
carpentry and electrical work, and he wants part-time work - up to 30 hours a
week - "at any of the many things I like to do."
Like the other recruiters interviewed, Highland Heights-based Willcare has
found that older workers are valuable as part-time and full-time employees.
Many of yesterday's job seckers said they enjoy helping people with their
health problems, because many of them have experience helping their own family
members with such needs as bathing and dressing, said Lucy Roark, Willcare
personnel recruiter.
And then there are those older workers who want to recapture skills such as
working at a cash register and handling money.
"We talked to at least 30 people," Kimberly Thwing, a staff officer at
Huntington Bank in Cleveland. "We found many interested in training programs and
willing to learn new procedures."
GRAPHIC: PHOTOS BY: PHAEDRA SINGELIS / PLAIN DEALER PHOTOGRAPHER; Photo 1:
Cleveland's Senior Job Fair brought companies and some 300 retirees together in
the City Hall rotunda yesterday.; Photo 2: You can't be independent and travel,
living solely on Social Security, said Nora Perry, 77.
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
LOAD-DATE: May 23, 1996
LEVEL 1 - I OF I STORY
Copyright 1996 The Times-Picayune Publishing Co.
The Times-Picayune
May 26, 1996 Sunday, THIRD
SECTION: PRIMELIFE; Pg. 3
LENGTH: 1142 words
HEADLINE: RETIREMENT ON SHAKY GROUND
BYLINE: BY JAMES GAFFNEY Special Sections staff writer
BODY:
"Oh, Lord, won't you buy me
a Mercedes Benz?
My friends all drive Porsches
I must make amends"
- Janis Joplin
Somewhere down the line the baby boom generation got a bad rap.
And it may get worse.
"We figure 18 million baby boomers are at risk of being poor when they're
older," Fernando Torres-Gil, Department of Health and Human Services Assistant
Secretary on Aging, said in a telephone interview.
For many the popular image of the boomer is that of
idealist-hippy-turned-yuppy-greedhead. hellbent on conspicuous consumption even
while up to their lava lamps in red ink.
Yet, while the first wave of boomers who turn 50 this year will probably
enjoy higher incomes in retirement than the current older-adult population,
millions of others may be left in the economic dust, according to the American
Association of Retired Persons' Public Policy Institute in a report titled
"Aging Baby Boomers: How secure is their economic future?"
In fact, the gap between the haves and have-nots amongst boomers will widen
over the next 20 years creating a permanent underclass.
"A majority of boomers could live reasonably well in retirement because of a
history of good jobs and decent income," the AARP report states. "Yet many, such
as persons with a limited education, a sporadic work history, divorced women,
widows and disproportionately large numbers of African American and Hispanics
may face a retirement of economic deprivation and insecurity."
"Race is a critical variable in determining retirement coverage because
blacks and Hispanics have lower incomes, lower levels of retirement and pension
coverage, and therefore are less able to save and plan ahead," Torres-Gil said.
The report also found that second-wave boomers (born from 1955 to 1964) will
benefit more from a strong economy and, conversely, suffer more from a stagnant
economy in part because they have more working years ahead of them than older,
first-wave boomers (born between 1946 and 1954).
Moreover, all boomers have some chance of experiencing a poor economic future
because many of the risks they face are "random."
For many boomers, though, that future is now. For example, among white
households in their pre-retirement years (51 to 61), the top 5 percent have
saved $300,000, the typical family has $17,000 and the bottom fifth has $800 or
less, according to a study by economist James Smith of the nonprofit Rand
research organization, headquartered in Santa Monica, Calif. Credit card debt
per household exceeds $3,000.
Smith's study was based on national surveys for the National Institute on
Aging.
By comparison the typical black and Hispanic household has under $500 in
financial assets; four out of 10 have no household wealth.
Household wealth includes equity in homes, the value of business and other
real assets, and all financial assets including savings accounts and stocks and
bonds.
Not surprisingly, the income disparity between the richest and poorest
boomers and the emergence of a permanent underclass within the ranks of the
nation's largest cohort group could spell economic calamity in the future. That
is, unless lawmakers take strident and bipartisan steps to strengthen the
traditional safety nets of retirement: Social Security, pensions and Medicare.
But that doesn't appear likely any time soon.
Numerous studies in recent years have warned that Social Security and the
pension system are on shaky ground. Meantime, the third leg of the financial
stool, private wealth and savings, may be even more bleak. Savings rates in the
United States overall are significantly less than that in Japan and Europe, at a
time when most analysts contend that gray-haired boomers will require large
savings in addition to pensions and Social Security to maintain their standard
of living in retirement.
In fact, nearly one out of 10 boomers born in 1946 hasn't even started
saving for retirement yet, according to a recent survey by Sun Cities developer
Del Webb Corp. And 13 percent believe they will never be able to retire.
"Baby boomers are frustrated and anxious because they're not able to save as
much as they want," Torres-Gil said.
Moreover, they've pretty much given up on government help - almost half of
the survey respondents said they believe that less than 10 percent of their
retirement income will be from Social Security.
Undoubtedly, the Woodstock generation will have to make some attitude
adjustments in their old age.
"As a cohort, (boomers) will have to put off retirement and work longer than
other past generations," said Richard Boebel, assistant professor of finance at
Tulane University's A.B. Freeman School of Business.
Add to this formula the fact that boomers in general have had fewer children,
and later in life, which will result in a shortage of workers in the labor force
paying taxes into Social Security and Medicare coffers to support the bulging
demographic balloon of retiring boomers.
Already the strain is being felt.
The Medicare Hospital Insurance Trust Fund, for example, which pays hospital
bills for the nation's 37 million older and disabled adults, lost $4.2 billion
last year - the first time it's lost money since 1972, according to a recent
Treasury department report.
Making matters worse is that the health care program for the nation's
retirees, signed into law in 1965 by President Lyndon Johnson and still his most
popular Great Society program, is spiraling out of control at an unpredictable
rate few can fathom.
Recently, the Congressional Budget Office announced that the Medicare trust
fund will run out of money by 2001 - a year earlier than previously estimated -
with a $28.9 billion deficit. The deficit will reach $331.6 billion by the end
of fiscal 2005 - about $100 billion worse than the cumulative deficit forecast
by the budget office one year ago.
The latest data shows the fund is in worse shape than administration
officials had projected last year and provides fresh evidence that Medicare
remains a budget problem of immense and growing proportions, say experts.
Observers point out, however, that there is little chance the trust fund -
which contains $120 billion - will run out of money because Congress would
surely act to rescue the program before it was seriously threatened. But, as
Tulane's Boebel noted, any rescue plan will invariably have to include hiking
payroll taxes on working-age adults, slashing benefits, requiring beneficiaries
to pay more for services, or a combination.
"Failure to reform the system now, while we still can," warns Thomas Schatz,
president of Citizens Against Government Waste, a private advocacy group, "will
mean devastating benefit reductions for retiring boomers or outrageous payroll
tax hikes for their children and grandchildren."
Page 2
LEVEL 1 - 1 OF 217 STORIES
Copyright 1999 Time Inc.
Fortune
July 19, 1999
SECTION: FEATURES/LONG LIFE; Pg. 102
LENGTH: 2957 words
HEADLINE: Hell No, We Won't Go!;
Surprising demographic trends raise a tough question: Will the elderly live so
long that society can't cope?
BYLINE: David Stipp
BODY:
Baby-boomers have ushered in most every major trend over the past 50 years.
But it was their grandparents who initiated the most radical demographic change
of the past half-century--a dramatic decline in death rates at older ages. In
fact, about the time boomers were rambunctiously burning draft cards, their
elders quietly began nullifying actuarial tables. By 1990 there were more than
1.5 million Americans age 85 and over who wouldn't have been alive if death
rates had stayed at the 1960 level.
Extrapolating this trend, demographer James Vaupel has made a bold
prediction: Half of the girls and a third of the boys recently born in the
developed world will live to be 100. Vaupel similarly expects millions of former
flower children to defy federal population forecasts and make good on their old
chant, "Hell no, we won't go! he has projected there could be nearly 37
million boomers age 85 and over by 2050, more than twice the government's best
guess. That would mean a much higher proportion of senior citizens nationwide
than Florida has today. It would also mean that we should now be considering far
more stringent policies to prevent future economic crises than are on the table,
from raising the retirement age to trimming Social Security and Medicare
entitlements.
Vaupel, who heads Germany's Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, is
more optimistic than most demographers about the prospects for longer life. But
he's no shallow visionary. A few years ago many of his colleagues scoffed when
he challenged a grim canon about aging. It holds that death rates rise
exponentially with age in adult animals, including humans--the older you are,
the theory goes, the more likely you are to die. Aided by other researchers, he
marshaled data on everything from Swedish women to Medflies to show it ain't so;
for good measure, he threw in supporting data on the death rates of old cars.
The team demonstrated that mortality can plateau and, strangely, even drop among
the very old--as if the Fates were nodding off after a long wait.
Vaupel sees this "mortality deceleration" as a subplot of a grand mystery
that has preoccupied demographers for over a decade: Why have the elderly been
Page 3
Fortune, July 19, 1999
living longer than their forebears since about 1970? Some of the causes are
obvious, such as the averting of millions of fatal heart attacks by
blood-pressure drugs widely used since the 1960s. But many experts on aging feel
that such well-known factors can't explain the trend's surprising speed and
breadth. For instance, the number of centenarians in various developed countries
has doubled every decade since the 1960s.
Casting about for explanations, some demographers theorize that deep,
little-understood changes are afoot that will help sustain the trend for
decades. Vaupel has stuck his neck out farther than most by proposing that the
aging process may actually slow down in very old people, an idea based on his
mortality-deceleration work. That particular idea remains highly controversial.
But Vaupel's bullish view that longevity gains will continue apace is widely
shared. Indeed, many demographers are now more bullish than the Social Security
Administration, which projects that the decline in old-age death rates will slow
to a crawl early in the next century.
The bulls' predictions raise a burning issue: If we receive a gift of extra
years, will it turn out to be a Pandora's box filled with hobbling diseases? For
most of this century death rates and the prevalence of chronic diseases among
the elderly have dropped in tandem. But "we're balanced on a razor's edge,' says
Eric Stallard, a demography professor at Duke University. If medical advances
make mortality fall faster than disease, we'll wind up spending costly extra
years in nursing homes. Or worse: "We may face the gruesome prospect of poor,
disabled, homeless older Americans living out the end of their lives on city
streets and in parks, warns Edward L. Schneider, dean of gerontology at the
University of South California.
Vaupel, a U.S. citizen reared on Long Island, was one of the first
researchers to issue wake-up calls about the new demography of aging, as he
calls it. The implications came home to him when his daughter, Anna, was born in
1984. Musing about her future, he calculated that if the death-rate declines
observed since the 1960s continued, girls in her "birth cohort" could expect, on
average, to become centenarians. Since then, he's moderated his forecast some.
"My best guess now is that 50% of newborn white females in the developed world
will celebrate their 100th birthdays," he says.
Vaupel's projections are still far more bullish than the Social Security
Administration's midrange forecasts, which are typically used to project Uncle
Sam's liabilities. According to the agency, U.S. life expectancy, or average
life span at birth, will rise to about 82 years in 2075, from about 76 now.
That's roughly a fourth as much as it rose over the past 75 years.
As Vaupel has projected, a heftier rise in life expectancy would increase by
tens of millions the number of boomers who keep on trucking after 2030. That has
huge fiscal implications. Federal medical payouts for individuals over 84 are
more than twice as high, on average, as for those between 65 and 69. If numbers
aren't your cup of tea, just picture the budget circa 2030 as a snake trying to
swallow a COW.
Like all long-term projections, forecasts of mortality patterns over the next
century are no more than educated guesses. Underscoring this uncertainty, some
demographers flatly disagree with Vaupel and predict the bull market for
longevity gains is about to run out of steam. The most vociferous of these
Page 4
Fortune, July 19, 1999
bearish experts is the University of Chicago's Jay Olshansky. An affable man
known for ripping the bulls in technical journals, Olshansky cheerfully argues
that we'll all go under in a timely way from the federal government's point of
view--he feels the Social Security Administration's intermediate projections are
about right. "The practical limit for life expectancy hasn't changed at all.
It's still about 85, he declares.
Pushing life expectancy into the upper 90s, which some bulls think is
possible over the next century, would be like human sprinters getting up to
cheetah speed--the human body isn't physically capable of doing that in the
foreseeable future, Olshansky contends. When sparring with Vaupel in the Boston
Globe a few years ago, he projected that his daughter, Jessica--who happens to
be the same age as Vaupel's daughter--was born into a generation with a life
expectancy of 85.
At the bottom of the bull-bear rift are radically different views on the
future and the past. The bulls are more sanguine about medical science's ability
to keep the Reaper in retreat in coming decades. They envision major life
expectancy gains from advances such as artificial organs and medicines that cure
major killers, and they're willing to entertain hopes of drugs that will someday
slow the aging process--an idea that's gaining credibility, thanks to the
discovery of gene mutations that can dramatically extend lower animals' life
spans (see part one of this series, "Live a Lot Longer," in the fortune.
archive). The bulls also have a rosier view of the forces that have raised U.S.
life expectancy by a whopping 30 years since 1900. One bullish theory posits
that good health early in life has cut the risk of various chronic diseases of
aging. That implies gains against such diseases should continue well into the
next century, regardless of what high-tech medicine does for us.
The developed world's life expectancy pattern over the past century falls
roughly into three parts. Before 1950 it rose quickly, thanks to the advent of
antibiotics, better nutrition, and other factors that mainly reduced mortality
among the young--in particular, infant mortality. After much of that low-hanging
fruit was plucked, life expectancy gains slowed and seemed to plateau in the
1950s and '60s (see charts). Then around 1980 it became apparent that life
expectancy was rising again. This time, though, stellar gains were occurring
among older people.
Before that pattern rose like an uncanny phoenix from worldwide death
statistics, many experts believed we were approaching an intractable biological
limit on life expectancy, says John Wilmoth, a demographer at the University of
California at Berkeley. In 1978, for instance, a prominent French demographer
argued that life expectancy couldn't exceed 73.8 years for men and 80.3 years
for women. Four years later life expectancy in Japan barreled through the
presumed male limit, and in 1985, through the female one.
The idea of an 85-year limit remains viable. Japanese women, the current
world champs for longevity, have a life expectancy of about 83. Further, "the
rise in life expectancy is decelerating," says Olshansky.
That's true. The pre-1950 gains were faster than the gains after 1970, thanks
to factors that cut infant mortality. But the bulls say Olshansky is focusing on
the wrong indicator. What's important, they argue, are falling death rates at
older ages, a profound change that's largely masked when factored into life
Page 5
Fortune, July 19, 1999
expectancy averages--just as broad stock-market indexes barely registered
skyrocketing Internet stock prices, which some observers feel is a harbinger of
fundamental economic change.
In a 1994 study, Vaupel and colleagues showed that average annual mortality
declines at age 80 and above actually sped up between 1970 and 1990 in nine
developed nations. Such data, says Berkeley's Wilmoth, suggest that "if there's
a biological limit to human longevity, we're not getting close to it yet. "
As Vaupel racked up debating points, French centenarian Jeanne Calment
emerged as the bulls' Michael Jordan. "When she got to 115, the naysayers [about
continuing death-rate declines among the aged] said she probably wouldn't live
another year, " says Stallard, the Duke professor. The awesome little old lady
blew right on by--she died in 1997 at age 122 and five months.
"I have been strongly impressed by the life of Madame Calment, " wrote
Berkeley demographer Kenneth Wachter shortly before her death. Among other
things, he said, Calment had helped convince him that mortality really does
decline among the very old--just as Vaupel had said.
But while Vaupel has convinced colleagues that mortality deceleration is
real, its cause remains a subject of heated debate. Bears like Olshansky argue
that the phenomenon is a trivial statistical artifact--death rates, which tend
to rise as the weaker members of a population die off, slow when only a robust
few remain. Indeed, he notes, "the death rate for people over 120 was zero
shortly before Jeanne Calment was the only one in that age category.
Vaupel acknowledges that this "heterogeneity of frailty" among aging individuals
might explain mortality deceleration. On the other hand, he says, it might also
involve "behavioral and physiological changes with age."
Consider automobiles, he says. Using car-registration data, which show when
autos are no longer in use and presumed dead, Vaupel demonstrated that death
rates among Toyotas and Chevrolets tend to plateau after about a decade of
use--their mortality curves resemble the ones for Medflies and people. This is
partly due to heterogeneity of frailty--lemons die fast, leaving nonlemons to
age more gracefully. But it's also likely, says Vaupel, that "older cars are
repaired, and driven less frequently and more carefully. As cars age, their
owners may also age and become more stolid and responsible." By analogy, "it's
possible some of the mortality deceleration we've seen is due to some slowing of
the aging process at higher ages" - - an effect perhaps tied to good genes and a
knack for preserving the old bod.
Unimpressed by all this, Social Security officials for years have ignored
outsiders' recommendations, including Vaupel's, to issue more bullish mortality
projections. Because of the agency's conservative mortality forecast, a 2.2%
payroll tax increase that it estimates is needed to keep its trust fund
actuarially sound through 2073 is more than 30% below what it should be,
estimates Ronald D. Lee, an influential Berkeley demographer regarded as a
moderate. Some demographers say privately that the agency is under pressure to
maintain its cautious stance, lest its projections force policymakers to
consider politically untenable tax hikes.
Not true-politics doesn't affect the Social Security Administration's
forecasts, asserts Harry Ballantyne, the agency's chief actuary. Its
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Fortune, July 19, 1999
intermediate forecast, he adds, recently was deemed "well within the range
considered reasonable" by 41 experts convened by the Society of Actuaries, a
professional group.
A flap in Canada, however, showed how hard it is for government actuaries to
insulate themselves from politics. Last August, Bernard Dussault, Canada's chief
actuary, was fired while preparing a report on the fiscal health of his
government's retirement fund. Dussault charged that he was dismissed after
refusing an order to alter a figure in the report that would have embarrassed
the government--an assertion disputed by his former boss, who told reporters
that Dussault was fired because of "management differences." In December,
Dussault's replacement concluded the pension plan remained strong and workers
wouldn't have to pay more--just as they had been promised earlier by the Finance
Minister.
Projecting Medicare costs raises even thornier issues than do Social Security
forecasts, including the one we care about most: If we live longer, will our
extra years be spent in good health?
A 1997 study at Duke offered good news: Disability rates among Americans over
64 dropped, on average, 1.3% a year between 1982 and 1994. Even better, the
gains against the Reaper's vanguard of imps were growing--after declining 1.1% a
year until 1989, disability fell an astonishing 1.5% annually over the next five
years.
Predictably, the bulls and bears disagree about this. No one doubts that
medical advances, such as cardiac-artery bypass operations to ward off disabling
heart attacks, played a role. Healthier lifestyles clearly did too--men who
exercise, keep their weight down, and don't smoke apparently postpone the onset
of "functional disability" by about five years, compared with couch potatoes who
smoke, according to a study last year by Stanford University researchers.
But there's sharp disagreement about whether the gains are the beginning of a
long-term trend. Pushing life expectancy past 85 with medical advances gives us
"manufactured time,' says Olshansky. It may merely shift "the burden of
senescence" to costlier chronic diseases-- a person may avoid a fatal heart
attack at 75, say, only to die at 85 after an eight-year struggle with
Alzheimer's disease. He adds that new diseases of aging may appear as we smash
into "hazards lurking in the older regions of the human life span." Such hazards
may include harmful genes that come into play only late in life, like the one
that causes Huntington's disease, a fatal brain disorder whose symptoms don't
appear until midlife.
At this point in the debate, the bulls usually trot out some of their most
heartening and surprising data: Chronic-disease risks among the elderly appear
to be dropping in part because of improved nutrition and fewer infections early
in the century. British researcher David Barker, for instance, has published
studies indicating that low birth weight, a sign of possible fetal malnutrition,
increases the risk of heart disease and other late-life disorders. An analysis
of records kept by the Union Army pension program, set up in 1862, showed that
early-life infections among Civil War veterans predisposed them to higher risk
of heart-valve disease, clogged arteries, and other diseases of aging.
The bulls see the latter study, reported in December by Massachusetts
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Fortune, July 19, 1999
Institute of Technology economist Dora Costa, as a slam dunk. "Chronic diseases
shouldn't necessarily be thought of as part of the natural process of aging,
Costa concluded. If she's right, baby-boomers may well age more gracefully than
earlier generations, since antibiotics let them grow up with fewer serious
infections.
The bulls note that boomers have at least two other things going for them:
Over a fourth of them attained a bachelor's degree or higher, which is
strongly correlated with healthier lifestyles--a recent study on smokers who had
heart attacks, for instance, showed that nearly 90% of college grads quit
afterward, while only 10% of those with less than a high school education did.
And because boomers are expected to live longer, medical costs during the last
year of life, when a person's Medicare expenses typically soar, may actually
drop. A 1993 study showed that average final-year spending totals $ 15,500 for
people who die between 65 and 74, ages at which doctors are willing to try
heroic measures, compared with less than $ 9,000 for those who die after 89.
The final score in our momentous game of life and delayed death is still very
much up in the air. Vaupel, for one, is optimistic about the outcome--he
believes better health at older ages is largely driving the mortality declines
after 65, so our average life spans and "health spans" will continue to rise in
tandem. For his part, Olshansky says that to increase health spans, "we urgently
need to put more resources into attacking diseases that cause frailty and
disability. On that point, at least, the bulls quite agree.
BOX STORY:
A new science of aging explores the population explosion among senior
citizens.
PART 2 of a three-part series
GRAPHIC: COLOR PHOTO: PHOTOGRAPH BY JEAN PIERRE FIZET--SYGMA, THE VERY OLDEST:
Jeanne Calment of France, age 117 in this photo, holds the record for human
longevity. She died two years ago at 122.; B/W PHOTO: ROBERT RICCI--GAMMA
LIAISON, COLOR PHOTO: DAG ALVENG, THE BULL: Demographer James Vaupel predicts
that his daughter, Anna, born in 1984, has about a 50% chance of living to age
100.; COLOR PHOTO: ANNA CURTIS, THE BEAR: Jay Olshansky thinks longevity gains
will level off; he predicts his daughter, Jessica, has a life expectancy of
about 85., COLOR PHOTO: J.P. LAFFONT--SYGMA, GOLDEN OLDIES: One theory holds
that aging slows in very old complex systems-like classic cars and people.;
THREE COLOR CHARTS: FORTUNE CHART/SOURCE: JAMES W. VAUPEL, Death Takes A Holiday
A canon of aging science used to be that death rates grow exponentially with
age. But recent studies show that death rates-in people, Medflies, and even
cars--sometimes decline among the very old.; COLOR CHART: FORTUNE CHARTS/SOURCE:
U.S. CENSUS BUREAU, OLD RUSH, The number of centenarians in the U.S. is expected
to continue doubling each decade. And the ranks of the very old will swell
across the board. 1950 2,300, 1960 3,300, 1970 4,800, 1980 15,000, 1990 28,500,
2000 72,000, Projected 2050 834,000; COLOR CHART: FORTUNE CHARTS/SOURCE: U.S.
CENSUS BUREAU, [See caption above] People per 100,000 of population expected to
reach each age group, by decade of birth
Page 9
LEVEL 1 - 6 OF 217 STORIES
Copyright 1999 National Broadcasting Co. Inc.
NBC News Transcripts
SHOW: NBC NIGHTLY NEWS (6:30 PM ET)
June 13, 1999, Sunday
LENGTH: 634 words
HEADLINE: OLDER AMERICANS INTERESTED IN STAYING A PART OF THE WORKFORCE
ANCHORS: LEN CANNON
REPORTERS: BETTY ROLLIN
BODY:
LEN CANNON, anchor:
IN FOCUS this evening, the growing number of older Americans who keep working
after reaching retirement age. NBC's Betty Rollin has our report.
Mr. JIM DEVINE (Former Retiree) : I'm looking for a putter. My putter is SO
old-fashioned.
BETTY ROLLIN reporting:
Jim Devine, an engineer by profession, takes some interest in his golf game.
He just doesn't want to spend the rest of his life playing it.
Mr. DEVINE: At 65, I decided that I would retire and put in for the benefits
and so forth, and--but I was not good at retiring.
(To man) As I mentioned, there's more than one
ROLLIN: And so he did what more and more retirees are doing: using his old
skills, he got a new job in environmental protection for the state of New
Jersey. Devine is 72 now, and outside of a bad knee, he's in good health and
works four days a week, with a pleasant difference he says, from the old days.
Mr. DEVINE: I was more aggressive then. I was always trying to get ahead.
And I'm more relaxed now. I just do the jobs as they come to me. If they need
extra help, I'll do that, too. But I don't go really looking for it.
ROLLIN: So, the ambition is gone?
Mr. DEVINE: It's gone.
ROLLIN: But not the fun?
Mr. DEVINE: The fun is still there.
ROLLIN: Compared to a life of leisure, work in general is more fun for many
Page 10
NBC News Transcripts, June 13, 1999
seniors.
Professor PHYLLIS MOEN (Cornell University) : Men who work in their 70s after
retirement tend to be less depressed, more satisfied, less bored, feel more
productive.
ROLLIN: A major reason more elderly people like Jim Devine can work is that
they're living longer and healthier than ever before. As we approach a new
century, thanks largely to modern medicine, life expectancy in America is up to
76 years, compared to 47 years at the turn of the last century. And today, once
you make it to 65, you have better than a 40 percent chance of reaching 85 and
beyond. The great majority of Americans still prefer to spend their elderly
years at leisure, but a survey of baby boomers indicates a possible change.
Eighty percent said they intend to work full or part time after age 65. Even
now, a small but growing number of people are working in later life, even into
their 70s. 1.7 million Americans 70 or older worked at least part time last
year, up from 1.3 million in 1990. Most of them are not only healthier, but
better educated and have higher household incomes than nonworkers.
Prof. MOEN: These people want to work, and they want some extra money, but
they're really working because they want to remain active and socially engaged.
ROLLIN: Unless they're women and in lower-skilled jobs. Most older women,
many of the widowed, don't have the kind of work history that leads to good
pension and Social Security benefits that men have.
Ms. MARY MORRA (Part-Time Worker) : Boys? Both boys?
ROLLIN: Seventy-two-year-old Mary Morra says she enjoys the contact with
people here at this supermarket in Bronxville, New York.
Ms. MORRA: Still raining hard outside?
ROLLIN: But, with a sick husband at home, she says she needs work in order
not to have to depend on her children.
Ms. MORRA: Some of them want to help me, but they have their own families.
If I really, really had to, they would be there.
ROLLIN: But you like to be
Ms. MORRA: But I like to be on my own. I like to do it myself.
ROLLIN: Food Emporium is one of a number of companies that has gone out of
its way to find elderly workers.
Ms. MAUREEN McLOUGHLIN (Director, Human Resources) : They're very dependable.
They usually come in before their scheduled time, and they tend to have greater
longevity on the job. So, they really make one of the perfect part-time workers
for us.
ROLLIN: The part-time aspect suits both employers and these elderly workers,
who insist on having more of a balance between their jobs and the rest of life,
a life they see as enriched by work. Betty Rollin, NBC News, Trenton, New
Jersey.
Page 14
LEVEL 1 - 21 OF 217 STORIES
Copyright 1999 UMI, Inc.; ABI/INFORM
Copyright World Future Society 1999
Futurist
May 1999
SECTION: Vol. 33, No. 5 Pg. 16-18+; ISSN: 0016-3317; CODEN: FUTUAC
LENGTH: 3469 words
HEADLINE: The centenarians are coming!!
BYLINE: Wagner, Cynthia G
BODY:
Headnote:
The remarkable achievement
of centenarians isn't just the
fact that they've made it to
100; it's that they've made
living beyond 100 seem a
worthwhile goal.
Jeanne Calment was 13 years old when a Dutch painter named Vincent van Gogh
came to her home town, Arles, in the south of France in 1888. A century later,
she could still remember him: "Very ugly, ungracious, impolite, crazy. I forgive
him. They called him 'the Nut.
Both van Gogh and Calment have become world famous-van Gogh, for painting
pictures that people pay millions of dollars for, and Calment, for becoming the
world's oldest person.
Jeanne Calment was born in 1875, before the Eiffel Tower was built. She was
both van Gogh's contemporary and, a century later, ours. When she died in 1997
at age 122, she had broken all human longevity records.
But her record may not last long. Centenarians-people living to age 100 and
beyond-are on the rise. Counting the Superold
Centenarians as a group are not easy to count. For one thing, it is difficult
to verify cases of exceptional longevity; sloppy historians and ambiguous
records may inadvertently add years to an individual's life because he or she
was given the same name as an older relative who had died. People allegedly
living to 150 years and beyond in the Russian Caucasus were discredited when
many were found to be using birth certificates of aunts and uncles with the same
names, according to preeminent centenarian researcher Thomas Perls, director of
Page 15
Futurist May 1999
the New England Centenarian Study at Harvard Medical School.
(Photograph Omitted)
Captioned as: Opposite: Jeanne Calment lived 122 years, 164 days-the longest
confirmed life-span in history-before passing away in 1997. Her birth
certificate, dated February 21, 1875, earned her a place in the Guinness Book of
Records, bringing worldwide fame.
Until recent years, there haven't been enough centenarians to count
separately from other senior citizens. Now, global record keepers such as the
United Nations Population Division are raising the bar: "Elderly" now means "85
and older," rather than merely "65 and older, reflecting the swelling ranks of
people nearing the century mark. Today, a 65-year-old must live 57 more years to
catch up with Jeanne Calment.
The U.N.'s 1998 World Population Revision, released last October, included
for the first time the numbers of octogenarians (people aged 80-89),
nonagenarians (90-99), and centenarians (100 and older). (Yet to make it into
the statisticians' books are decacentenarians-persons in their 110s-and
dodecacentenarians-those in their 120s, like Jeanne Calment.)
"In 1998, around 135,000 persons in the world are estimated to be aged 100 or
over,' the Population Division reported. "The number of centenarians is
projected to increase 16-fold by 2050 to reach 2.2 million persons.' Research on
Centenarians
The rapid growth in the number of centenarians has been a neglected
phenomenon, but researchers are now showing interest, according to Michel
Allard, Victor Lebre, and Jean-Marie Robine, co-authors of the case study Jeanne
Calment: From Van Gogh's Time to Ours. Allard is a physician and gerontologist,
Lebre was Calment's physician and friend, and Robine is a demographer.
France began studying centenarianism seriously in 1989 when the IPSEN
Foundation, a nonprofit organization specializing in longevity research, began a
major epidemiological study, the authors report.
"Madame Jeanne Calment was one of a small group of centenarians," Allard,
Lebre, and Robine write. "For example, in 1953, there were scarcely 200
centenarians in her native France; in 1988, the number exceeded 3,000. At the
time, nothing, or almost nothing, was known about them. However, they foreshadow
the emergence of a new stratum of the population, illustrating a more and more
probable, almost certain future, both individual and collective. Today, the
number is over 6,000."
The U.S. Census Bureau estimates nearly 66,000 Americans now over age 100,
compared with about 3,500 in 1900. Entertainer George Burns died in 1996 shortly
after turning 100; the Delany sisters became bestselling authors (Having Our
Say) well after entering their second century of life; legendary theater
director George Abbott worked into his 90s and, at age 106 in 1994, advised on
the revival of his hit musical Damn Yankees; he died at 107.
(Photograph Omitted)
Page 16
Futurist May 1999
Captioned as: Athlete Ben Levinson, age 103, practices a shot put at the 1998
Nike World Masters Games. Studies show that persons of extraordinary age tend to
experience a slower aging process than others and that, if they make it past
their 90s, most enjoy good health until the very end of life.
Centenarians' personal stories were collected for Centenarians: The Bonus
Years, a 1995 book by Lynn Peters Adler, founder of the Arizona Centenarian
Program and the National Centenarian Awareness Project. While the book
celebrates the achievement of long life, Adler notes that the centenarians are
not just "our living links to the past, but also pioneers and role models for
future centenarians: "Hopefully, the models of centenarians here will give
assurance that such longevity is becoming more possible and often desirable, as
well as raise thought-provoking issues to be addressed for and by future
centenarians."
Decreasing Mortality Rates
Mortality rates have fallen almost everywhere in the world during the
twentieth century, according to Joseph Chamie, director of the U.N. Population
Division's Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Improved public health,
nutrition, and medical breakthroughs such as the development of antibiotics and
vaccines are all part of the twentieth century's reduction of mortality. One
observer credits plumbers more than doctors for humans' increased survival
rates, as improved sanitation has reduced the incidence of infectious diseases.
Economic progress, in general, helps people live longer, as evidenced by the
higher mortality rates in less-developed regions: Major exceptions to the global
success story include Africa, where HIV/AIDS is taking a devastating toll, and
eastern Europe, where declining economic conditions since the breakup of the
Soviet Union have thwarted attempts to improve life expectancy and death rates.
Genetics may help explain why certain individuals live longer than others.
The Calment family clearly lived well in Arles, with four generations proving
resilient against food shortages, plagues, and other privations between 1700 and
1900. The researchers conclude, "Two factors are evident: a greater longevity
and a vigor in this family.'
Gender also is a factor, as women tend to outlive men in general. The United
Nations reports that there are nearly two women to every man above the age of
80; among centenarians, the ratio is four to one. The good news for men is that
those who survive into their 100s tend to retain better mental function than
their female peers, according to Harvard's Thomas Perls.
Lifestyles of the Superold There does not seem to be a single,
one-lifestyle-fits-all formula for centenarianism, but people who live a long
time tend to make life worth living. Strict diets and fitness regimens may make
you healthier and thus improve your chances for living longer, but such programs
are not for everyone. The current "world's oldest person," Sarah Clark Knauss
(118) of Allentown, Pennsylvania, reportedly feasts on chocolates, pretzels, and
potato chips and shuns vegetables. Her advice for longevity is not to worry
about your age. Jeanne Calment smoked in moderation, but finally quit of her own
accord when she was 117 (offering hope that it is never too late for anyone to
quit smoking). She drank port (vintage only, please) and enjoyed chocolates. She
married and outlived her husband; she also outlived her one child.
Page 17
Futurist May 1999
On the other hand, American centenarians Sadie and Bessie Delany never
married. Bessie (who died at 104 in 1995) was quoted, "When people ask me how
we've lived past 100, I say, 'Honey, we never married; we never had husbands
to worry us to death. Indeed, a low level of "worry," or stress, is a strong
marker in successful agers, as is a facility for coping with stress when it does
come about. As Centenarians author Lynn Adler observes, "People who reach 100
are not quitters.'
(Photograph Omitted)
Captioned as: Cambridge University graduate Molly Maxwell holds a picture of
herself in her youth. In 1997, she became the oldest person to receive a
Cambridge degree (age 103), 80 years after leaving the university.
Centenarians also exercise their minds: The Delany sisters, black women in
post-slavery America, both attended college, as did their eight brothers and
sisters; Bessie became a dentist and Sadie (who died this year at age 109)
became a highschool teacher in an era when most women stayed home.
Education and the desire to keep on learning throughout life are two factors
associated with longevity in general. Education is an important sociodemographic
factor because it increases individuals' chances for a higher economic and
health status. Now, researchers at the Charles A. Dana Foundation in New York
and at the Harvard Medical School are working with centenarians to learn what
the impacts of brain health are on aging. Brain autopsies of centenarians have
revealed a remarkable lack of the physical ravages of Alzheimer's disease and
dementia, according to Margery Silver of Harvard's New England Centenarian
Study. "It has been common thinking that dementia is inevitable with old age.
That isn't so," she says.
Harvard researcher Thomas Perls postulates that this puzzling good brain
health among centenarians may be a "survival of the fittest" phenomenon; since
Alzheimer's claims the lives of its victims in their 80s and early 90s, those
who reach their late 90s are likely to hang on to their superior mental
faculties for years to come.
Life-Span VS. Life Expectancy Perls points out that life-span and life
expectancy are two very different things. Average life expectancy refers to how
long individuals are expected to survive given the circumstances of their
birth-and this number has soared in the twentieth century from an average of
about 45 years to 63 for men and nearly 68 for women worldwide, according to
U.N. figures. Life expectancy remains low in less-developed countries-51 years
for men, 53 for women-but is higher in moredeveloped countries-71 for men, 78
for women.
Life-span, on the other hand, refers to the maximum potential age of human
beings; that is, the age they may reach if their lives are not taken by disease
or misadventure. While life expectancy has clearly increased, life-span has not.
The maximum life-span remains about 120 years. As science learns more about the
aging process, researchers hope to develop techniques to slow or even reverse
the effects of aging. Already, observation of centenarians has shown them to
have slower rates of biological aging.
Page 18
Futurist May 1999
Perls notes the association of late motherhood with longer lives: "As we
reviewed the pedigrees of a number of our centenarian subjects living in the
suburban Boston area, we came across a substantial number of women who had
children in their 40s, he wrote in Scientific American (January 1995). "There
was even one that had a child at the age of 53 years. This struck us as
unusual given that maternal age greater than 40 is a relatively rare event
However, a history of older maternal age among our centenarian subjects made
sense to us since aging relatively slowly is a likely necessary characteristic
of achieving extreme old age and women who do so should be able to bear children
at an older age."
(Photograph Omitted)
Captioned as: Centenarian advocate Lynn Peters Adler (center), chats with
103-year-old Merle McEathron (right) and 102-year-old Lenore Schaeffer, the
world's oldest competitive ballroom dancer.
(Photograph Omitted)
Captioned as: Jeanne Calment meets the press on the occasion of her 121st
birthday. "I waited 110 years to become famous," she once said.
Perls concluded that "it is not the act of having a child in your 40s that
promotes long life, but rather it is an indicator that the woman's reproductive
system is aging slowly. A slow rate of aging would therefore bode well for the
woman's subsequent ability to achieve very old age. "
So slowing down the aging process would seem to be a key in extending the
human life-span-the potential outer limits of human aging. A new branch of
health science has emerged around the concept of anti-aging, finding the genetic
keys to slowing or reversing the aging process. While some researchers, such as
Harvard's Thomas Perls and colleagues, focus on understanding the genetic makeup
of centenarians, others are looking for genetic fixes for the rest of us, such
as the work on telomeres by researchers at the University of Texas Southwestern
Medical Center and elsewhere. Telomeres are the protective caps on the ends of
chromosomes that normally shorten with cell division; researchers believe that
resupplying cells with the enzyme telomerase will rebuild the telomeres and
rejuvenate older cells-thus extending the human life-span indefinitely.
Rethinking Old Age Aging itself is not a disease; it is the aging process
that leads to death. Among centenarians-the survivors of the ravages of the
aging processdeath tends to come quickly, with shorter periods of disability. A
study in 1995 by James Lubitz of the Health Care Financing Administration showed
that death is far less costly among the very old: The last two years of life for
those who died at 70 averaged $ 22,600 in medical expenses, compared with just $
8,300 for centenarians.
"The research implies, happily, that as the oldest old become more numerous,
they may not become a massive drain on the economy," Perls says. "Counter to
prevalent theories of aging, many people in their late 90s or 100s lead active,
healthy lives. If they represent a 'survival of the fittest' cohort, the time
may have come to abandon our past perceptions of our oldest citizens.'
And aging baby boomers have been a driving force in a societywide health and
Page 19
Futurist May 1999
fitness trend for the past few decades that may pay off. Says Perls, "People
used to say, 'Who would want to be 100?' Now they're realizing it's an
opportunity. Centenarians
as Time Travelers? Just as Jeanne Calment connected us to the nineteenth
century, future centenarians will connect us to the twenty-second. Madame
Calment's biographers offer this scenario:
"Let's now imagine that a little girl is born in 1999: If she reaches the
same age as Madame Calment, she will live to the year 2122. By then, living
conditions, hygiene, medicine (preventative and curative), lifestyles, behavior,
and genetics (why not?) will have progressed and she will easily live 10%
longer-not just 122 years, but 135-which will take her to the year 2135. What a
prospect! She might be your child or grandchild, but we know neither who nor
where, only that she will see a third of the twenty-second century. "CG
Sidebar:
Emerging Issues in an Aging Society Many businesses will benefit from the
growing number of elderly in the population. There will likely be increasing
demand for golfing, cruises, drugs and health services of all kinds, eyeglasses,
hearing aids, and telemetry bracelets for absent-minded elderly who wander off
and need to be located.
Many products will be redesigned to better fit with elderly needs: There will
be more easygrip doorknobs, phones with bigger buttons, larger-sized type in
books and magazines, bigger traffic signs, and longer "yellow" lights
Reversal of Trend Toward Early Retirement? One growing issue is the rapid
reduction in the retirement age. In 1890, about 68% of Americans over 65
continued to work. This dropped to 56% in 1920, then 41% in 1950. By 1970, only
25% of people over 65 worked, and that number was cut to 12.2% in 1980. In 1993,
only 10.9% of Americans over 65 were still on the job. Social Security,
pensions, and personal savings have encouraged people to retire early. When the
early retirement trend is combined with the trend toward greater longevity, the
result is a growing challenge to government and private retirement programs. A
likely result is that the trend toward early retirement will reverse, and more
people over 65 will remain in the work force.
Intergenerational Issues May Heat Up The extension of the life-span is
raising a number of important issues:
Women in their 60s are now able to have babies thanks to advancing science.
Older parents may be less able to care for children and are more likely than
younger parents to die or become incapacitated.
Elderly retired people are consuming an increasing share of government funds.
Must working adults with young children support older people who are still
capable of working but choose not to?
Euthanasia and assisted suicide are increasingly tolerated. How should
society respond? "Deadbeat kids"-children who evade supporting their elderly
parents-may join "deadbeat dads" as a focus of social opprobrium. Children may
become angry as their idle parents fritter away the children's hoped-for
Page 20
Futurist May 1999
inheritance. Scarcity of resources will lead to more rationing of services and
hard choices: Should a heart transplant be given to a wealthy 85year-old or a
40-year-old with five children to support?
Conflicts will intensify between the needs of the elderly and the needs of
the workplace. Caregivers will feel torn. Results may include absenteeism,
interrupted workdays, decreased productivity
Workers may express growing anger about taxes they must pay to support
retirees. A proposal in Singapore would give a worker two votes against one for
a retiree. -Graham T.T. Molitor Graham T.T. Molitor is vice president of the
World Future Society and president of Public Policy Forecasting, 9208 Wooden
Bridge Road, Potomac, Maryland 20854. Telephone 1-301-762-5174.
Sidebar:
Resources on
Centenarians and Longevity Books: Jeanne Calment: From Van Gogh's Time to
Ours by Michel Allard, Victor Lebre, and JeanMarie Robine. W.H. Freeman, 41
Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10010. 1998.136 pages. $ 22.95. (Save 30% by
ordering from www.wfs.org/specials.htm.) Centenarians: The Bonus Years by Lynn
Peters Adler. Foreword by Walter M. Bortz II. Health Press, P.O. Drawer 1388,
Santa Fe, New Mexico 87504. 1995. 348 pages. Illustrated. $ 25. (Save 30% by
ordering from www.wfs.org/ specials.htm.) The Longevity Strategy: How to Live to
100 Using the Brain-Body Connection by David Mahoney and Richard Restak. The
Dana Press/John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 1998. 250 pages. Paperback. Available from
the Futurist Bookstore for $ 14.95 ($ 13.50 for Society members), cat. no.
B-2157.
Reversing Human Aging by Michael Fossel. Quill. 1996. 307 pages. Paperback.
Available from the Futurist Bookstore for $ 16 ($ 14.50 for Society members),
cat. no. B-1999. Stopping the Clock by Ronald Klatz and Robert Goldman. Keats
Publishing. 1996. 369 pages. Available from the Futurist Bookstore for $ 22.95
($ 20.95 for Society members), cat. no. B-2002.
Cheating Death by Marvin Cetron and Owen Davies. St. Martin's Press. 1998.
224 pages. Available from the Futurist Bookstore for $ 21.95 ($ 19.95 for
Society members), cat. no. B-2119.
Life without Disease by William B. Schwartz. University of California Press.
1998. 178 pages. Available from the Futurist Bookstore for $ 22 ($ 19.95 for
Society members), cat. no. B-2171. Age Right by Karlis Ullis with Greg Ptacek.
Simon & Schuster. 1999. 319 pages. Available from the Futurist Bookstore for $
23 ($ 21.50 for Society members), cat. no. B-2252. Journal: Journal of
Anti-Aging Medicine edited by Michael Fossel. Mary Ann Liebert, Inc.,
Publishers, 2 Madison Avenue, Larchmont, New York 10538. Telephone
1-914-8343100; Web site www.liebertpub. com.
Articles: - "Reversing Human Aging: It's Time to Consider the Consequences"
by Michael Fossel, THE FUTURIST (July-August 1997).
*
"Extended Life-Spans: Are You Ready to Live to 120 or More?" by Marvin
Cetron and Owen Davies, THE FUTURIST (April 1998).
Page 21
Futurist May 1999
*
"The Conquest of Disease: It's Almost within Sight" by William B. Schwartz,
THE FUTURIST (January 1999)
Organizations: The New England Centenarian Study, Harvard Division on Aging,
643 Huntington Avenue, Boston, Massachusetts 02115. Web site
www.med.harvard.edu.
National Centenarian Awareness Project, Attention Lynn Peters Adler, 3135
East Marshall Avenue, Phoenix, Arizona 85016. Web site www.adlercentenarians.
com. American Medical Association, Web site www.ama-assn.org.
American Academy of AntiAging Medicine, 1510 West Montana Street, Chicago,
Illinois 60614. Web site www.llongevity. com.
GRAPHIC: Graphs
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
JOURNAL-CODE: FUS
AVAILABILITY: Full text online. Photocopy available from ABI/INFORM 6998.00
ABI-ACC-NO: 01809290
LOAD-DATE: May 4, 1999
Page 22
LEVEL 1 - 29 OF 217 STORIES
Copyright 1999 Lakeland Ledger Publishing Corporation
The Ledger (Lakeland, FL)
April 11, 1999, Sunday
SECTION: Health '99; Pg. 11
LENGTH: 478 words
HEADLINE: ELDERLY POPULATION EXPECTED TO SKYROCKET; IN THE NEXT CENTURY, AS MANY
AS ONE IN FIVE PEOPLE IN THE U.S. WOULD BE ELDERLY, COMPARED TO ABOUT ONE IN
EIGHT NOW
BYLINE: ROBIN WILLIAMS ADAMS The Ledger
BODY:
LAKELAND -- The United States is on the brink of the aging boom already being
felt in Florida, the state with the highest percentage (19 percent) of elderly
residents.
People 65 and older could total 80 million nationwide by the middle of the
next century.
As many as one in five people in the U.S. would be elderly, compared to about
one in eight now, according to U.S. Census Bureau predictions.
More than 3 million people are 85 or older now. By 2050, those "oldest old"
are expected to total 19 million.
Life expectancy increased from an average of 47 years for people born in 1900
to 76 years for people born in 1991.
Improved death rates, caused by better medical care, modify at-birth
predictions.
Someone who was 50 years old in 1996 could expect to live 27.1 more years if
male or 31.5 years if female, said Frank Hobbs, a demographer for the U.S.
Census Bureau.
The outlook gets better with age.
People who were 65 in 1996 could expect to live 15.7 more years if they were
men and 18.9 years if they were women.
"The longer you live, the longer you can expect to live, on average, 11 Hobbs
said. "You've escaped that previous risk of dying."
The average person born in 1991 who reaches 65 can expect to live until 82.
That's based on death rates in 1991. If those rates keep improving, Hobbs
said, SO will expected years of life.
Page 23
The Ledger (Lakeland, FL) April 11, 1999, Sunday
Living longer means more chance of living with chronic illness, such as
diabetes or arthritis, said Dr. Carl Eisdorfer, chairman of the University of
Miami's psychiatry department and a past president of the American Society on
Aging.
"We are keeping more people alive, but we're keeping a lot of them alive who
have chronic illnesses and would
PLEASE SEE POPULATION, 18
Population
CONTINUED FROM 11
have died, he said.
The sheer number of seniors - - and their range of age from 65 to older than
100 -- makes blanket predictions about their needs difficult.
"The well elderly, or 'welderly,' as we call them, this group is so vastly
different than the frail elderly, said Dr. Bruce Rybarczyk, a Chicago clinical
psychologist who specializes in older adults.
"We're increasingly wising up to the idea that the generalizations you can
make about a 75-year-old are less accurate than at any other age.
LIFE EXPECTANCY AT AGE 65
As overall life expectancy increases, SO does the number of years people can
expect to live after reaching age 65. Growth has been less noticeable, however,
for black men.
SOURCES: National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disdease Control,
American Association for World Health
AMERICANS AGE 65 AND OVER
From 34 million in 1997, roughly 1 in 8 of the nation's population, the
number of senior citizens is expected to reach 80 million, about 1 in 5, by
2050.
SOURCES: Bureau of the Census, American Association for World Health
GRAPHIC: MARK WILLIAMS/The Ledger: Graphs; Charts
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
LOAD-DATE: April 13, 1999
Page 12
LEVEL 1 - 10 OF 217 STORIES
Copyright 1999 DR Partners d/b/a Las Vegas Review-Journal
Las Vegas Review-Journal (Las Vegas, NV)
May 23, 1999 Sunday, FINAL EDITION
SECTION: K; Pg. 1K
LENGTH: 710 words
HEADLINE: GRAY MATTER
BYLINE: John Hughes
BODY:
By John Hughes
Associated Press
WASHINGTON Computer companies are catching on - grandma and grandpa want to
-
surf the World Wide Web.
With the number of older Americans on the Internet growing, but only one out of
four people older than age 60 owning computers, high-tech companies are viewing
the elderly as one of the last largely untapped U.S. markets.
Companies including Microsoft, Intel and America Online are distributing
instructional videos on computer use, sponsoring training seminars and creating
Web sites that cater to the elderly.
"We're finding a lot of interest,' said Craig Spiezle, director of Microsoft's
senior initiative. "Clearly, the growth is huge."
People older than 50 are the second-fastest-growing group on the Internet,
trailing only 16-to-24-year-olds, according to a study last year by Nielsen
Media Research and CommerceNet.
But the older-than-50 group accounts for only 17 percent of the people who use
the Internet, the study found. And only 25 percent of people older than 60 own a
computer, compared with 50 percent for the rest of the population, according to
research by Microsoft and the American Society on Aging.
So company officials are taking action.
Intel, the world's largest chip maker, has donated equipment for computer
training centers and sponsored Web sites catering to the elderly.
America Online, the nation's largest Internet provider, has boosted its content
directed at seniors, forming partnerships with groups such as the American
Association of Retired Persons.
IBM offers computer discounts to members of the nonprofit computer training
group SeniorNet. On-line auctioneer e-Bay has run print ads aimed at older
customers, and computer maker Gateway has sponsored training seminars and run
television ads.
"We see it as a very important market, said Greg Lund of Gateway. "These are
people who are not only not scared of technology, they're willing to experiment
with it."
Microsoft is conducting one of the more high-profile efforts, spending millions
of dollars and hiring a five-person staff dedicated to reaching older customers.
The Redmond, Wash., software giant announced this month that it is shipping
10,000 free videos to community groups to introduce seniors to computers.
Last week, Microsoft issued guidelines for businesses and Web site developers on
Page 13
Las Vegas Review-Journal (Las Vegas, NV) May 23, 1999 Sunday,
how to make Internet sites more user-friendly and accessible for seniors.
Cynthia Creighton, a 57-year-old former civil servant taking a computer training
class in Portland, Ore., said she uses her computer to send poems to her
daughters.
"It's been a marvelous way to keep in touch,' she said.
Company officials see something else - profits. Industry officials say many of
the elderly have the key essentials to becoming computer owners - time and
money.
The most recently available census data, from 1993, showed that
70-to-74-year-olds, followed by 65-to-69-year-olds, were the wealthiest age
groups in America based on net worth.
'High-tech companies are definitely catching on,' said Mark Carpenter, online
communications director for the AARP. "Lots of times when you are 22 years old
you can't afford to buy a personal computer."
Frances Jette, 59, of Hudson, N.H., was only one week into her first computer
training class earlier this year when she plunked down $ 1,500 to buy her first
computer. Now she has set up a Web page to sell the clocks she makes, and she
checks it each day for orders.
"It was much well worth it, she said.
Industry experts say the increasing focus on the elderly has been a natural
progression. With their children and grandchildren often already plugged in,
seniors see computers as valuable for checking stock prices, getting health and
travel tips and, above all, exchanging e-mail and digital photographs.
"They want to keep in touch with their family and friends," said Laura Fay of
SeniorNet in San Francisco.
And with retirees living longer, and often viewing Social Security as
insufficient to support them, they also want training for a new job.
Ed Kelley, who signed up with Green Thumb Inc., a nonprofit group that provides
computer training to the low-income elderly, said, "There's absolutely nothing
in here I can't learn.
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
LOAD-DATE: May 25, 1999
Children and Media Violence
http://www.mediaandthefamily.org/vlent.html
MEDIA
Fact Sheets™
381
CHILDREN AND MEDIA VIOLENCE
Want to do
something?
Did you know?
dick here
By the time an average child (one who watches two to four
hours of television daily) leaves elementary school, he or she
will have witnessed 8,000 murders and over 100,000 other
acts of violence (Huston, 1992).
By the time a child is 18 years old, he or she will witness
(with average viewing time) 200,000 acts of violence
including 40,000 murders (Huston, 1992).
On an individual day, there are about 5 to 6 violent acts per
hour on prime-time television, and 20 to 25 acts of violence
on Saturday morning children's television (Gerbner, 1990).
Weekly, in the United States, this adds up to about 188
hours of violent programs or about 15% of the program time
(Huesmann, 1992).
Cable can add to the violence by rerunning old shows and
the showing of more violent new ones.
Many popular R-rated films available on video contain far
more violence than seen on commercial television.
Children with VCR or cable access have seen more R-rated
films than their non-cable, non-VCR counterparts (Huston,
1992).
Since 1955, reports, studies and congressional testimonies
by experts in the field have overwhelming concluded that
"the mass media are significant contributors to the
aggressive behavior and aggression related attitudes of
many children, adolescents and adults" (Surgeon General,
1972; National Institute of Mental Health, 1982; American
Psychological Association, 1992).
Two large meta analysis studies have been conducted on
research linking media violence to aggression in children.
One looked at 67 studies and over 30,000 subjects (Andison,
1977). The other looked at 230 studies and almost 100,000
subjects (Hearold, 1986). Both supported a number of
conclusions: "First, there is a positive association between
televised violence exposure and behavior. Second, exposure
to violent programming not only increases aggressive
behavior, but is associated with lower levels of prosocial
behavior."
What's Happening:
The National Association for the Education of Young Children
focuses on three effects of media violence on children:
"Children may become less sensitive to the pain and
suffering of others" (desensitization).
Children "may be more likely to behave in aggressive or
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http://www.mediandthefamily.org/vlent.html
harmful ways towards others" (increases aggression).
Children "may become more fearful of the world around
them" (Mean World syndrome).
Many factors in the portrayal of media violence contribute to its
affect on children and teens (Comstock, 1994):
Is the aggressive behavior on screen rewarded or punished?
Is the violence gratuitous, is it justified or does it lack
consequences?
Does the viewer identify with the aggressor or the victim?
Does the viewer become engaged with or aroused by the
violence on screen?
What is the age of the child? Although violence affects
children of all ages, middle childhood, ages 8 to 12, seem
particularly sensitive.
What is the total amount of television watched?
Does the child see television violence as realistic?
SOURCES
Andison, F.S. "TV violence and viewer aggression: A cumulation of
study results". Public Opinion Quarterly, 1977, 41, pp. 314-331.
Comstock, G.A. and Paik, H. "The effects of television violence on
antisocial behavior: A meta-analysis," Communication Research,
1994, 21, pp. 516-546.
Hearold, S. "A synthesis of 1043 effects of television on social
behavior" in Comstock's Public Communication and Behavior (Vol.
1), San Diego, CA: Academic Press, 1986.
Huesmann, L.R. Violence in the mass media, paper presented at
the Third International Conference on Film Regulation, London,
England, 1992.
Huston, A.C., et al. Big world, small screen: The role of television
in american society. Lincoln, NE: University of Nebraska Press,
1992.
Gerbner, G. and Signorielli, N. Violence profile, 1967 through
1988-89: Enduring patterns, Annenberg School of Communication,
1990.
National Institute of Mental Health. Television and behavior: ten
years of scientific progress and implications for the eighties,
summary report (Vol. 1). Washington DC: U.S. Government
Printing Office, 1982.
National Association for the Education of Young Children. Young
children, 1990, 45(5), pp. 18-21.
Surgeon General's Scientific Advisory Committee on Television
and Social Behavior. Television and growing up: The impact of
televised violence. Washington DC: U.S. Government Printing
2 of 3
5/27/99 11:30 AM
Ruby Shamir
05/27/99 11:27:02 AM
Record Type:
Record
To:
Jeffrey A. Shesol/WHO/EOP@EOF
CC:
Subject: media violence
In addition to the information below -- which is mostly on television violence -- I also have some research
on the effects Media Violence. I am looking for more stuff.
Violent Programming Content
The level of violence in prime time television has remained at approximately five
violent acts per hour, while the level of violence in children's Saturday morning programming
is much higher at about 20 to 25 violent acts per hour. [Big World, Small Screen, 1992]
Children witness 8,000 murders and 100,000 other assorted acts of violence by the
time they graduate from elementary school, and an estimated 200,000 acts of violence, and
16,000 simulated murders, by the time they are teens. [AMA Fact Sheet from Center for
Media and Public Affairs, 1992]
According to the 1996 National Television Violence Study, a three-year study financed
by the cable industry, the majority of television programs (57%) contained some violent
content.
The National Television Violence Study also found that perpetrators of violent acts on
television go unpunished 73% of the time and that 25% of violent acts on television involve
the use of a handgun. Children's programs posed special concerns because they were least
likely to depict the long-term consequences of violence (5%) and they portray violence in a
humorous fashion 67% of the time.
PAGE
31
37TH STORY of Level 2 printed in FULL format.
Copyright 1999 Federal Information Systems Corporation
Federal News Service
MAY 4, 1999, TUESDAY
RH statement
SECTION: IN THE NEWS
LENGTH: 1773 words
HEADLINE: PREPARED STATEMENT OF
L. ROWELL HUESMANN
PHD
PROFESSOR OF PSYCHOLOGY AND COMMUNICATION STUDIES,
UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN
PAST PRESIDENT,
INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY FOR RESEARCH ON AGGRESSION
BEFORE THE SENATE COMMITTEE ON COMMERCE, SCIENCE AND TRANSPORTATION
SUBJECT - VIOLENT VIDEOS AND VIOLENT VIDEO GAMES:
WHY DO THEY CAUSE VIOLENCE AND WHY DO THEY SELL?
"MARKETING VIOLENCE TO CHILDREN."
BODY:
Distinguished Senators, Ladies, and Gentleman. I am Rowell Huesmann, Professor
of Psychology and Communication Studies at the University of Michigan and
Past-President of the International Society for Research on Aggression.
T
e been studying violent behavior for over 25 years. In 1972 I was the
thor of one of the major studies that influenced the Surgeon General to
issue a warning about media violence. In 1982 1 wrote the NIMH 10 year follow-up
report on the influence of media violence, and most recently I was the primary
author of the Human Capital Initiative report on violence. It is a pleasure to
be here today, although the message I want to deliver is not a pleasant message.
My message is this. The telecommunications revolution of the 20th Century has
created a new environment for our children. In this environment television,
movies, videos, internet displays, and electronic games have assumed central
key roles
roles in socializing our children while parents have lost influence. For better
in socializing
or worse the mass media are having an enormous impact on our children's values,
presser kids L
beliefs, and behaviors. In particular, the widespread portrayal of violence in
these media is having an insidious effect on increasing violence in society.
Now this is not to say that these media are the primary cause of violence in our
society. That is not to say that other factors ranging from neurophysiological
predispositions, to parenting failures, to impoverished environments, to violent
environments, to the profusion of guns in our society are not important. They
are! But SO is the amount of violence to which are children are exposed in these
old and new mass media every day. Not every child who watches a lot of violence
or plays a lot of violent games will grow up to be violent. Other forces must
impact
converge as they did recently in Colorado. But just as every cigarette you smoke
increases the chances that some day you will get lung cancer, every exposure to
over time
violence increases the chances that some day a child will behave more violently
just like
than they otherwise would.
cigarettes
Hundreds of studies have confirmed that exposing our children to a steady diet
of jolence in the media makes our children more violence prone. The
M
logical processes involved are notmysterious. Children learn by
simple
kids learn
by what
they observe
PAGE
32
Federal News Service, MAY 4, 1999
observing others, and the mass media provide a very attractive window for these
rvations. Children imitate the behaviors they see, and children deduce what
ght and wrong from what they see. Children hone their ideas and behaviors
1, racticing them, by rehearsing them over and over. Games that reward success
are a very good way to get children to practice a lot. As children observe more
violence, imitate it, practice it, are rewarded for it, they become more
Tolance for violence
tolerant of violence. For many children the greater tolerance for violence that
they learn from the mass media and the scripts for violent behavior that they
acquire from the mass media will not be very noticeable because of other
countervailing factors in their lives. But media violence does affect every
child.
Are these effects temporary? Unfortunately no. Research shows that the more
aggressive child usually grows up to be the more violent adult. Adults may be
resistant to influence from the games they play as adults and the movies and TV
they watch, but their adult social habits have been affected by what they saw
when they were children.
If this is true, you may say, why are there so many voices that won't accept
these truths? Well, if one does not want to believe a truth about human
behavior, one can always focus on exceptions. No single study is ever perfect
particularly in the social sciences. A few researchers have made a reputation
for themselves by burying the body of studies indicting media violence under a
sand pile of supposed flaws, and a myth has arisen that there is not a consensus
among researchers. In actuality there is a clear consensus that media violence
stimulates aggression. But media violence in is an enormous financial success.
myth
Violence attracts viewers and players, and violence can be a cheap way to
attract. Even well intentioned people find it difficult to sacrifice concrete
financial success for abstract moral advancement.
How much violence are our children exposed to in the electronic media? The
=
ge 7th grader is watching about 4 hours per day of TV and 60% of those
contain some violence. The average 7th grader is playing electronic games
at least 4 hours per week, and 50% of those games are violent. But these are
avg. 1/2
only averages; many, many children are exposed to much more media violence every
games
week. Because of demographic influences, many of the children who are exposed
the most to media violence are also exposed the most to real violence around
plays 7th grar violent are
them. The two combine to reinforce children's views that the world is a hostile
place in which one should retaliate if disrespected. The violence around the
child constantly primes aggressive ideas. When angered, frustrated, stressed, it
is perfectly understandable that a child exposed to all this violence behaves
more violently.
Wence SO attractive to children? Why do they watch violent shows and movies? Why
do they buy violent games? Again psychologists understand this pretty well. We
know children areattracted to visual action and movement and changes in scene
and music and sound. Non- violent shows like Sesame Street deliberately include
these to attract children, but violent shows generally naturally have these
characteristics. Children also find it pleasurable to be excited and then to
have the excitement resolved the way a suspenseful scene with danger to a
protagonist will do. Violent games reward children who kill more For violent
movies, if children identify with the hero, and they are likely to, they receive
vicarious pleasure when the hero saves the world by killing the bad guy and
being rewarded for his actions.
Is violence cheaper to produce? Violent and non-violent video games probably
cost about the same on the average. However, violent TV shows appear to be a
little cheaper to produce on the average. Statistics collected by Professor
Jar 7 Hamilton at Duke show that from 1991-93 the average production fee per
h
for network prime time TV programming was about $1,094K for non-violent
PAGE
33
Federal News Service, MAY 4, 1999
shows and $998K for violent shows - about 10% cheaper in other words. A more
t `ling statistic may be the finding that, among shows with some violence, those
more violence actually cost less. Each additional violent act seems to
luce the cost about $1,500.
Of course, these are only averages. A very high quality series such as 'The
Cosby Show' with high priced actors, directors, and writers will cost a lot more
than the average violent show. If it is a hit, it may produce enormous profits.
If not, it may produce enormous deficits. What really counts is the ability of a
video game to attract enough buyers to cover its cost, and the ability of a TV
show to attract enough sponsors to cover its cost or to attract enough
syndicated buyers.
Here, a variety of marketing issues become important. For example, foreign
markets become very important in these calculations, and generally violent shows
and games are easier to sell in foreign markets than other kinds of games or
shows. Studies by James Hamilton at Duke have shown that the probability of a
show being exported successfully increases about 16% if it is violent.
The bottom line is that children and adults are attracted to violence; and so
violence makes money. But does that mean that nothing should be done?
Imagine that the Surgeon General is presented with a series of studies testing
the harmfulness of a widely distributed product that many children love. There
are an extensive number of wellcontrolled experiments spanning more than 30
years showing unambiguously that using this product immediately causes symptoms
of a particular affliction in children. There are an equally large number of
field surveys showing that the incidence of this affliction is always higher
among people who use this product regularly. There are a smaller number of
longitudinal studies that have examined the long term effects of this product in
rent environments. Most have shown at least some evidence of detrimental
term effects though it has been difficult to disentangle the product's long
term effectsfrom the effects of those personal factors that cause people to use
this product. Of course, not everyone who uses this product gets the affliction,
and not everyone who gets the affliction has used the product. However, it is
known from these studies that if a child with a 50% risk for getting this
affliction uses the product, the best estimate of the child's risk for getting
the affliction rises to between 60% and 70%. Moreover, the affliction is very
difficult to cure, usually persists over years, and may well result in death.
The processes by which the product produces the affliction have become well
understood by scientists doing research in the area. Furthermore,, the incidence
of the affliction has grown dramatically since the product was first introduced.
However, because the product is attractive to many people and even addictive, it
has achieved tremendous economic importance. What should the Surgeon General do?
As you probably recognize, this has been exactly the situation for cigarettes
and lung cancer. But this has also been exactly the situation for media
violence and violent behavior. The level of statistical evidence is actually
using
product
just about the same in both cases a correlation of about .3 between using the
product and the affliction. Not everyone who uses the product gets the
4 risk
affliction, and other factors contribute to the affliction, but we know using
the product increases the statistical risk. In both cases the Surgeon General
long ago concluded that the substances were harmful and issued warnings about
them. In both cases economic interests with large investments in the product
feel threatened and have disparaged the research and opposed interventions to
reduce use of the product.
So hat is the solution? Better parental control, more government control,
t
ng children not to be affected by violent video games or media
PAGE 34
Federal News Service, MAY 4, 1999
violence, electronic chips that cut out violence, boycotting sponsors and
'ifacturers of violence? All of these may be needed. Each society needs to
decisions based on what is best for it. But it is time for every society to
it this problem seriously and act. The future of our children and society is
too precious for us not to act.
END
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Yes, the media do make us more violent.
Subscriber Services
Millions of teens have seen the 1996 movie Scream, a box-office and
Change of Address
home-rental hit. Critics adored the film. The Washington Post declared
that it "deftly mixes irony, self-reference, and social wry commentary."
Comments
The Los Angeles Times hailed it as "a bravu ra, provocative send-up."
Email the Editor
Scream opens with a scene in which a teenage girl is forced to watch her
jock boyfriend tortured and then disemboweled by two fellow students
who, it will eventually be learned, want revenge on anyone from high
school who crossed them. After jock boy's stomach is shown cut open and
he dies screaming, the killers stab and torture the girl, then cut her throat
and hang her body from a tree so that Mom can discover it when she
drives up. A dozen students and teachers are graphically butchered in the
film, while the characters make running jokes about murder. At one point,
a boy tells a big-breasted friend she'd better be careful because the stacked
girls always get it in horror films; in the next scene, she's grabbed, stabbed
throug h the breasts, and murdered. Some provocative send-up, huh? The
movie builds to a finale in which one of the killers announces that he and
his accomplice started off by murdering strangers but then realized it was
a lot more fun to kill their friends.
Now that two Colorado high schoolers have murdered twelve classmates
and a teacher--often, it appears, first taunting their pleading victims, just
like celebrity stars do in the movies!--some commentators have dismissed
the role of violence in the images shown to the young, pointing out that
horrific acts by children existed before celluloid or the phosphor screen.
That is true--the Leopold-Loeb murder of 1924, for example. But mass
murders by the young, once phenomenally rare, are suddenly on the
increas e. Can it be coincidence that this increase is happening at the same
time that Hollywood has begun to market the notion that mass murder is
fun?
For, in cinema's never-ending quest to up the ante on violence, murder as
sport is the latest frontier. Slasher flicks began this trend; most portray
carnage from the killer's point of view, showing the victim cowering,
begging, screaming as the blade goe S in, treating each death as a moment
of festivity for the killer. (Many killers seek feelings of power over their
victims, criminology finds; by reveling in the pleas of victims, slasher
movies promote this base emotion.) The 1994 movie Natural Born Kill ers
depicted slaying the helpless not only as a way to have a grand time but
also as a way to become a celebrity; several dozen onscreen murders are
shown in that film, along with a discussion of how great it makes you feel
to just pick people out at rand om and kill them. The 1994 movie Pulp
Fiction presented hit men as glamour figures having loads of interesting
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fun; the actors were mainstream stars like John Travolta. The 1995 movie
Seven, starring Brad Pitt, portrayed a sort of contest to murder in unu
sually grotesque ways. (Screenwriters now actually discuss, and critics
comment on, which film's killings are most amusing.) The 1995 movie
The Basketball Diaries contains an extended dream sequence in which the
title character, played by teen heartthrob Leonardo DiCaprio,
methodically guns down whimpering, pleading classmates at his high
school. A rock soundtrack pulses, and the character smiles as he kills.
The new Hollywood tack of portraying random murder as a form of
recreation does not come from schlock-houses. Disney's Miramax
division, the same mainstream studio that produced Shakespeare in Love,
is responsible for Scream and Pulp Fiction. Time-Warner is to blame for
Natural Born Killers and actually ran television ads promoting this film as
"delirious, daredevil fun." (After it was criticized for calling murder "fun,"
Time-Warner tried to justify Killers as social commentary; if you believe
that, you believe Godzilla was really about biodiversity protection.) Praise
and publicity for gratuitously violent movies come from the big media
conglomerates, including the newspapers and networks that profit from
advertising for films that glorify murder. Disne y, now one of the leading
promoters of violent images in American culture, even feels that what
little kids need is more violence. Its Christmas 1998 children's movie
Mighty Joe Young begins with an eight-year-old girl watching her mother
being murdered. By the movie's end, it is 20 years later, and the killer has
returned to stalk the grown daughter, pointing a gun in her face and
announcing, "Now join your mother in hell." A Disney movie.
One reason Hollywood keeps reaching for ever-more-obscene levels of
killing is that it must compete with television, which today routinely airs
the kind of violence once considered shocking in theaters. According to
studies conducted at Temple University, prime-time network (non-news)
stats
shows now average up to five violent acts per hour. In February, NBC ran
in prime time the movie Eraser, not editing out an extremely graphic scene
in which a killer pulls a gun on a bystander and blasts away. The latest TV
movie based on The Rockford Files, which aired on CBS the night of the
Colorado murders, opened with a scene of an eleven-year-old girl in
short-shorts being stalked by a man in a black hood, grabbed, and dragged
off, screaming. The Rockford Files is a co medy. Combining television
and movies, the typical American boy or girl, studies find, will observe a
stunning 40,000 dramatizations of killing by age 18.
In the days after the Colorado slaughter, discussion of violent images in
American culture was dominated by the canned positions of the
anti-Hollywood right and the mammon-is-our-God film lobby. The debate
diff. b/w what
missed three vital points: the distinction betwee n what adults should be
adults + kids
allowed to see (anything) and what the inchoate minds of children and
shd see
adolescents should see; the way in which important liberal battles to win
free expression in art and literature have been perverted into an excuse for
antisocial video brutality produced by cynical capitalists; and the
difference between censorship and voluntary acts of responsibility.
The day after the Colorado shooting, Mike De Luca, an executive of New
Line Cinema, maker of The Basketball Diaries, told USA Today that,
when kids kill, "bad home life, bad parenting, having guns in the home"
are "more of a factor than what we put out th ere for entertainment."
Setting aside the disclosure that Hollywood now categorizes scenes of
movie stars gunning down the innocent as "entertainment," De Luca is
correct: studies do show that upbringing is more determinant of violent
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upbringing is
behavior than any ot her factor. But research also clearly shows that the
#1, but
viewing of violence can cause aggression and crime. So the question is, in
violence viewed
a society already plagued by poor parenting and unlimited gun sales, why
does the entertainment industry feel privileged to mak e violence even
is also big.
more prevalent?
Even when researchers factor out other influences such as parental
studies
attention, many peer-reviewed studies have found causal links between
show
viewing phony violence and engaging in actual violence. A 1971 surgeon
line
general's report asserted a broad relationship between the two. Studies by
Brandon Centerwall, an epidemiologist at the University of Wisconsin,
have shown that the postwar murder rise in the United States began
roughly a decade after TV viewing became common. Centerwall also
found that, in South Afri ca, where television was not generally available
until 1975, national murder rates started rising about a decade later.
Violent computer games have not existed long enough to be the subject of
many controlled studies, but experts expect it will be shown t hat playing
such games in youth also correlates with destructive behavior. There's an
eerie likelihood that violent movies and violent games amplify one
another, the film and television images placing thoughts of carnage into
the psyche while the games co ndition the trigger finger to act on those
impulses.
Leonard Eron, a psychologist at the University of Michigan, has been
tracking video violence and actual violence for almost four decades. His
initial studies, in 1960, found that even the occasional violence depicted in
1950s television--to which every pa rent would gladly return
today--caused increased aggression among eight-year-olds. By the adult
years, Eron's studies find, those who watched the most TV and movies in
childhood were much more likely to have been arrested for, or convicted
of, violent fel onies. Eron believes that ten percent of U.S. violent crime is
caused by exposure to images of violence, meaning that 90 percent is not
but that a ten percent national reduction in violence might be achieved
merely by moderating the content of television and movies. "Kids learn by
observation," Eron says. "If what they observe is violent, that's what they
learn." To cite a minor but telling example, the introduction of vulgar
language into American public discourse traces, Eron thinks, largely to the
poin t at which stars like Clark Gable began to swear onscreen, and kids
then imitated swearing as normative.
Defenders of bloodshed in film, television, and writing often argue that
depictions of killing don't incite real violence because no one is really
affected by what they see or read; it's all just water off a duck's back. At
heart, this is an argument agai nst free expression. The whole reason to
have a First Amendment is that people are influenced by what they see
and hear: words and images do change minds, so there must be free
competition among them. If what we say, write, or show has no
consequences, wh y bother to have free speech?
ie.,
Defenders of Hollywood bloodshed also employ the argument that, since
valenti
millions of people watch screen mayhem and shrug, feigned violence has
no causal relation to actual violence. After a horrific 1992 case in which a
British gang acted out a scene from t he slasher movie Child's Play 3,
torturing a girl to death as the movie had shown, the novelist Martin Amis
wrote dismissively in The New Yorker that he had rented Child's Play 3
and watched the film, and it hadn't made him want to kill anyone, so what
wa S the problem? But Amis isn't homicidal or unbalanced. For those on
the psychological borderline, the calculus is different. There have, for
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example, been at least two instances of real-world shootings in which the
guilty imitated scenes in Natural Born K illers.
Most telling, Amis wasn't affected by watching a slasher movie because
Amis is not young. Except for the unbalanced, exposure to violence in
video "is not so important for adults; adults can watch anything they
want," Eron says. Younger minds are a differ ent story. Children who
don't yet understand the difference between illusion and reality may be
highly affected by video violence. Between the ages of two and eight,
hours of viewing violent TV programs and movies correlates closely to
felonies later in 1 ife; the child comes to see hitting, stabbing, and shooting
as normative acts. The link between watching violence and engaging in
violence continues up to about the age of 19, Eron finds, after which most
people's characters have been formed, and video ma yhem no longer
correlates to destructive behavior.
Trends in gun availability do not appear to explain the murder rise that has
coincided with television and violent films. Research by John Lott Jr., of
use, not
the University of Chicago Law School, shows that the percentage of
prevalence, of
homes with guns has changed little t hroughout the postwar era. What
gunes, in
appears to have changed is the willingness of people to fire their guns at
one another. Are adolescents now willing to use guns because violent
images make killing seem acceptable or even cool? Following the
Colorado slaugh ter, The New York Times ran a recounting of other
postwar mass murders staged by the young, such as the 1966 Texas tower
killings, and noted that they all happened before the advent of the Internet
or shock rock, which seemed to the Times to absolve the m odern media.
But all the mass killings by the young occurred after 1950--after it became
common to watch violence on television.
When horrific murders occur, the film and television industries routinely
attempt to transfer criticism to the weapons used. Just after the Colorado
shootings, for instance, TV talk-show host Rosie O'Donnell called for a
constitutional amendment banning a 11 firearms. How strange that
O'Donnell didn't call instead for a boycott of Sony or its production
company, Columbia Tristar--a film studio from which she has received
generous paychecks and whose current offerings include 8MM, which
glamorizes the sexua 1 murder of young women, and The Replacement
Killers, whose hero is a hit man and which depicts dozens of gun murders.
Handguns should be licensed, but that hardly excuses the convenient
sanctimony of blaming the crime on the weapon, rather than on what r
esides in the human mind.
And, when it comes to promoting adoration of guns, Hollywood might as
well be the NRA's marketing arm. An ever-increasing share of film and
television depicts the firearm as something the virile must have and use, if
not an outright sexual aid. Check the theater section of any newspaper,
guns
and you will find an ever-higher percentage of movie ads in which the
stars are prominently holding guns. Keanu Reeves, Uma Thurman,
ads
Laurence Fishburne, Geena Davis, Woody Harrelson, and Mark Wahlberg
are just a few of th e hip stars who have posed with guns for movie
they
advertising. Hollywood endlessly congratulates itself for reducing the
stopped
depiction of cigarettes in movies and movie ads. Cigarettes had to go, the
Jlamoung
film industry admitted, because glamorizing them gives the wro ng idea to
why cigarettes,
kids. But the glamorization of firearms, which is far more dangerous,
continues. Today, even female stars who otherwise consider themselves
guins?
politically aware will model in sexualized poses with guns. Ads for the
new movie Goodbye Lover show sta r Patricia Arquette nearly nude, with
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very little between her and the viewer but her handgun.
But doesn't video violence merely depict a stark reality against which the
young need be warned? American society is far too violent, yet the forms
of brutality highlighted in the movies and on television--prominently
"thrill" killings and serial murders- -are pure distortion. Nearly 99 percent
of real murders result from robberies, drug deals, and domestic disputes;
figures from research affiliated with the FBI's behavioral sciences division
show an average of only about 30 serial or "thrill" murders nati onally per
year. Thirty is plenty horrifying enough, but, at this point, each of the
major networks and movie studios alone depicts more "thrill" and serial
murders annually than that. By endlessly exploiting the notion of the
"thrill" murder, Hollywood a nd television present to the young an entirely
imaginary image of a society in which killing for pleasure is a common
event. The publishing industry, including some tnr advertisers, also
lax enforce.
distorts for profit the frequency of "thrill" murders.
of ratings
The profitability of violent cinema is broadly dependent on the
"down-rating" of films--movies containing extreme violence being rated
keeps violent
only R instead of NC-17 (the new name for X)--and the lax enforcement
movies
of age restrictions regarding movies. Teens are th e best market segment
profitable
for Hollywood; when moviemakers claim their violent movies are not
meant to appeal to teens, they are simply lying. The millionaire status of
actors, directors, and studio heads--and the returns of the mutual funds
that invest in mov ie companies--depends on not restricting teen access to
only NC-17
theaters or film rentals. Studios in effect control the movie ratings board
14 enforced
and endlessly lobby it not to label extreme violence with an NC-17, the
only form of rating that is actually enforced. Natu ral Born Killers, for
example, received an R following Time-Warner lobbying, despite its
repeated close-up murders and one charming scene in which the stars
kidnap a high school girl and argue about whether it would be more fun to
kill her before or after raping her. Since its inception, the movie ratings
board has put its most restrictive rating on any realistic representation of
lovemaking, while sanctioning ever-more-graphic depictions of murder
and torture. In economic terms, the board's pro-violence bias gives studios
an incentive to present more death and mayhem, confident that ratings
officials will smile with approval.
When r-and-x battles were first fought, intellectual sentiment regarded the
ratings system as a way of blocking the young from seeing films with
political content, such as Easy Rider, or discouraging depictions of
sexuality; ratings were perceived as the rubes' counterattack against
cinematic sophistication. But, in the 1960s, murder after murder after
murder was not standard cinema fare. The most controversial violent film
of that era, A Clockwork Orange, depicted a total of one killing, which
was heard but not on-camera. (Clockwork Orange also had genuine
political content, unlike most of today's bigstudio movies.) In an era of
runaway screen violence, the '60s ideal that the young should be allowed
to see what they want has been corrupted. In this, tre nds in video mirror
the misuse of liberal ideals generally.
Anti-censorship battles of this century were fought on firm ground,
advocating the right of films to tackle social and sexual issues (the 1930s
Hays office forbid among other things cinematic mention of cohabitation)
and free access to works of literature such as Ulysses, Story of O, and the
original version of Norman Mailer's The Naked and the Dead. Struggles
against censors established that suppression of film or writing is wrong.
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But to say that nothing should be censored is very different from saying
that everything should be shown. Today, Hollywood and television have
twisted the First Amendment concept that occasional repulsive or
worthless expression must be protected, so as t o guarantee freedom for
works of genuine political content or artistic merit, into a new standard in
which constitutional freedoms are employed mainly to safeguard works
that make no pretense of merit. In the new standard, the bulk of what's
being protect ed is repulsive or worthless, with the meritorious work the
rare exception.
Not only is there profit for the performers, producers, management, and
shareholders of firms that glorify violence, so, too, is there profit for
politicians. Many conservative or Republican politicians who denounce
Hollywood eagerly accept its lucre. Bob Dole's 1995 anti-Hollywood
speech was not followed up by any anti-Hollywood legislation or
campaign-funds strategy. After the Colorado murders, President Clinton
POTUS
declared, "Parents should take this moment to ask what else they can do to
shield children f rom violent images and experiences that warp young
perceptions." But Clinton was careful to avoid criticizing Hollywood, one
of the top sources of public backing and campaign contributions for him
and his would-be successor, Vice President Al Gore. The pr esident had
nothing specific to propose on film violence--only that parents should try
to figure out what to do.
When television producers say it is the parents' obligation to keep children
away from the tube, they reach the self-satire point of warning that their
own product is unsuitable for consumption. The situation will improve
somewhat beginning in 2000, by wh ich time all new TVs must be sold
with the "V chip"--supported by Clinton and Gore--which will allow
parents to block violent shows. But it will be at least a decade before the
majority of the nation's sets include the chip, and who knows how adept
young minds will prove at defeating it? Rather than relying on a technical
fix that will take many years to achieve an effect, TV producers could
simply stop churning out the gratuitous violence. Television could
dramatically reduce its output of scenes of kill ing and still depict violence
in news broadcasts, documentaries, and the occasional show in which the
horrible is genuinely relevant. Reduction in violence is not censorship; it
is placing social responsibility before profit.
The movie industry could practice the same kind of restraint without
sacrificing profitability. In this regard, the big Hollywood studios,
including Disney, look craven and exploitative compared to, of all things,
the porn-video industry. Repulsive materi al occurs in underground porn,
but, in the products sold by the mainstream triple-X distributors such as
Vivid Video (the MGM of the erotica business), violence is never, ever,
ever depicted--because that would be irresponsible. Women and men
perform ever y conceivable explicit act in today's mainstream porn, but
what is shown is always consensual and almost sunnily friendly. Scenes of
rape or sexual menace never occur, and scenes of sexual murder are an
absolute taboo.
It is beyond irony that today Sony and Time-Warner eagerly market
explicit depictions of women being raped, sexually assaulted, and sexually
murdered, while the mainstream porn industry would never dream of
doing so. But, if money is all that matters, the point here is that
mainstream porn is violence-free and yet risque and highly profitable.
Surely this shows that Hollywood could voluntarily step back from the
abyss of glorifying violence and still retain its edge and its income.
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Following the Colorado massacre, Republican presidential candidate Gary
Bauer declared to a campaign audience, "In the America I want, all of
these producers and directors, they would not be able to show their faces
in public" because fingers "would be po inting at them and saying,
`Shame, shame." The statement sent chills through anyone fearing
right-wing thought-control. But Bauer's final clause is correct--
Hollywood and television do need to hear the words "shame, shame." The
cause of the shame should be removed voluntarily, not to stave off
censorship, but because it is the responsible thing to do.
Put it this way. The day after a teenager guns down the sons and daughters
of studio executives in a high school in Bel Air or Westwood, Disney and
Time-Warner will stop glamorizing murder. Do we have to wait until that
day?
(Copyright 1999, The New Republic)
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Copyright 1999 The New York Times Company
The New York Times
July 17, 1999, Saturday, Late Edition - Final
SECTION: Section C; Page 1; Column 2; Business/Financial Desk
LENGTH: 656 words
HEADLINE: Gates Hits $100 Billion Mark, More or Less
BYLINE: By AMY HARMON
BODY:
Last month, in the largest gift ever by a living person to a charitable
foundation, William H. Gates, the chairman of the Microsoft Corporation, donated
$5 billion to support education and health care causes.
Yesterday, in a few hours of stock market trading, Mr. Gates's holdings
surged by just about that amount, brushing $100 billion for the first time.
The mixture of awe and dismay that has long characterized America's fixation
on Mr. Gates's personal wealth was perhaps best summed up yesterday by Vincent
Malgapo, a contributor to the Silicon Investor electronic discussion forums:
"Bill Gates MSFT stock worth $100 Billion right now!" read the comment, which
was posted at 11:41 A.M. "WOW!"
Mr. Gates, who owns 19.8 percent, or about one billion shares, of the company
he co-founded in 1975, owes his world record to the remarkable performance of
Microsoft's stock. Shares of the software company climbed 5.4 percent yesterday
to a record high of $99.4375, on expectations that it will establish a separate
tracking stock for its Internet properties.
The company is the first to top $500 billion in market value. If it were a
country it would have the ninth-largest economy in the world, behind Spain,
which has a gross domestic product of $553 billion.
But the ballooning of Microsoft's stock price simply does not hold the same
fascination as that of its chairman's brokerage account.
"He finally did it," said Paul Saffo, director of the Institute for the
Future in Menlo Park, Calif. "This is what we've all been waiting for. How much
interest do you suppose it generates? I bet it's a 747 per day."
Philip Greenspun, creator of the Bill Gates Personal Wealth Clock, a Web site
that continuously calculates the value of Mr. Gates's Microsoft stock, had a
more pointed speculation.
"Maybe this will convince my students they shouldn't work so hard to become
rich," said Mr. Greenspun, a researcher at the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology's laboratory for computer science. "Because they're probably not
going to be richer than Bill Gates, so they might as well do something
interesting and valuable to society instead."
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The New York Times, July 17, 1999
At a time of sustained economic prosperity, America's proclivity to celebrate
wealth is reflected in the high marks Mr. Gates still receives in national
opinion polls. And the 43-year-old executive, who lives in a $60 million mansion
on the shores of Lake Washington with his wife and two children, has recently
begun to contribute more to philanthropy.
But the $100 billion mark may also mark a change in popular perception.
"Gates has crossed a psychological marker and it's going to increase pressure
on him to recycle more and more of that money through his foundations," said Ron
Chernow, an economic historian. "There will be more attention focused on the
extraordinarily lopsided distribution of wealth."
Of course, Mr. Gates is not the only software entrepreneur to become
fabulously wealthy in recent years. Microsoft's co-founder, Paul Allen, and its
chief executive, Steve Ballmer, are among the world's five richest people, along
with the investor Warren E. Buffett, whose 39.9 percent stake in the investment
holding company Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is valued at about $42.5 billion, making
him second to Mr. Gates.
Dozens of founders of fledgling Internet companies have become worth millions
on paper in a matter of months.
And by some calculations, Mr. Gates is poorer than John D. Rockefeller, who
had in excess of 2 percent of the gross national product at the peak of his
wealth in 1913.
Still, it may not be long before Mr. Gates passes another milestone.
"The key is when he reaches a trillion," said Lewis D'vorkin, an executive
editor at Forbes magazine, which publishes an annual list of the world's 400
richest people. "If Microsoft share price grows in the next five years as fast
as it has in the last five, he hits the big one in 2004."
GRAPHIC: Photos: William H. Gates, the richest man in the world, got a little
bit richer yesterday. (Reuters) (pg. C1); An aerial view of the $60 million
mansion in Medina, Wash., on the shores of Lake Washington, where William H.
Gates lives with his wife, Melinda, and their two children. (Reuters) (pg. C14)
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
LOAD-DATE: July 17, 1999
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The New York Times
July 9, 1999, Friday, Late Edition - Final
SECTION: Section A; Page 12; Column 5; National Desk
LENGTH: 303 words
HEADLINE: Upbeat Data on Crime and Youth
BYLINE: AP
DATELINE: WASHINGTON, July 8
BODY:
Despite fears about violence in schools, the number of children committing
crimes or being hurt in them has been dropping since 1993, according to an
annual Government report on the state of American children that was released
today.
The report said the situation of children and teen-agers was improving and
mostly hopeful, with the numbers of vaccinations and preschool enrollment up
while those for teen-age smoking and pregnancies were down.
"The trend is in the right direction," said Kristin Moore, president of
Child Trends, a research group. "We're sailing with the wind."
But Ms. Moore noted the absence of progress in reducing teen-age alcohol
consumption or in increasing health insurance coverage.
The annual report issued by the Federal Interagency Forum on Child and Family
Statistics is designed to be a broad assessment of the state of the nation's
children, a collection of statistics from across the Federal Government.
Lately, much of the attention on teen-agers has dealt with violence,
particularly shootings at schools. But the report found that the number of
serious violent crimes committed for every 1,000 children ages 12 to 17 had
declined since 1993 and was now at the lowest rate since 1986. In 1997, there
were 31 such crimes for every 1,000 children as compared with 52 per 1,000 in
1993, according to the Justice Department.
Still, in 1997 there were 706,000 violent crimes involving teen-agers.
Fewer teen-agers were injured or killed in crimes, too. There were 27 victims
for every 1,000 people ages 12 to 17 in 1997 as compared with 44 in 1,000 in
1993, the agency said.
Part of the decline can be traced to the overall decline in all types of
crime, which is tied to the strong economy, said Margaret A. Zahn, a
criminologist at North Carolina State University.
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
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Copyright 1999 The New York Times Company
The New York Times
July 14, 1999, Wednesday, Late Edition - Final
SECTION: Section A; Page 23; Column 1; Editorial Desk
LENGTH: 619 words
HEADLINE: Asking More From Matrimony
BYLINE: By Douglas J. Besharov; Douglas J. Besharov is a resident scholar at
the American Enterprise Institute and a professor at the School of Public
Affairs at the University of Maryland. Andrew R. West assisted with this
article.
DATELINE: WASHINGTON
BODY:
In 1986, a much-discussed study contended that a woman over 40 had a less
than 1 percent chance of getting married -- or, in the words of Newsweek, she
was more likely to be "killed by a terrorist."
It was a vivid phrase but an inaccurate one, it turned out. Other researchers
quickly corrected the study. Women were getting married, they were just getting
married later.
Now comes a new study from the National Marriage Project at Rutgers
University claiming that the marriage rate has declined by roughly 43 percent
since 1960. According to this report, the marriage rate of single women 15 years
old and older declined to 49.7 per thousand in 1996, from 87.5 per thousand in
1960.
Once again, the demise of marriage is being exaggerated. How? Age 15 is the
wrong cut-off for comparing marriage rates in 1960 and 1996, because people now
just don't wed at such an early age. Since 1960, the median age of women getting
married for the first time has increased by four and a half years, to 24.8 from
20.3.
To measure marriage rates accurately, most demographers today calculate the
percentage of women who are "ever married.' Assuming that one should not count
teen-agers because so few marry, in 1960 the proportion of women 20 and older
who had ever been married was 90 percent. Thirty-six years later the proportion
of women who were then or had at one time been married stood at 83 percent --
only about 8 percent lower.
That's the statistic for women who get married. What about staying married?
Here, the situation has worsened. Divorce rates rose sharply through the 60's
and 70's. Although divorce is down slightly since its 1980 peak, about 1
marriage in 3 still fails. Moreover, remarriage after divorce or a spouse's
death is way down, partly because the stigma attached to cohabitation has been
substantially reduced and partly because more women can survive financially on
their own.
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The New York Times, July 14, 1999
To measure these combined trends, demographers calculate the percentage of
women "currently married.' Here, by my calculations, we can see a big change. If
one accounts for later marriages and longer life spans by counting only those
Americans between the ages of 20 and 74 (after age 74, too many husbands are
dying to get a fair count of marriage), only 64 percent of women were currently
married as of 1996, versus 76 percent in 1960.
Yes, marriage bonds are weaker than ever. And people now divorce for what, to
many, seem like insubstantial reasons. Out-of-wedlock birth rates remain high,
and cohabitation rates continue to climb. But this does not mean that young
people have rejected marriage. If anything, they want more from marriage than
ever before.
These days, young people tend to marry later, after they have completed their
education and have a better idea of who they are. Because they have seen so much
divorce, many want to be very sure before making such a big decision. Studies
show they want marriage to be a partnership, with equality between men and
women, and to be emotionally satisfying in ways never dreamed of by their
parents, let alone grandparents. And they think that a bad marriage is worse
than no marriage -- so they are more willing to divorce even if they have young
children. Young women are also less willing to wed just because they are
pregnant.
One does not have to sympathize with all these lofty aspirations (or ignore
their inconsistencies) to recognize that young people aren't giving up on
marriage; they are just modernizing it.
So, instead of exaggerating the death of marriage, and instead of making
obsolete assumptions about when young people should marry, we should try to
understand this seismic change in their behavior and attitudes.
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
LOAD-DATE: July 14, 1999
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Copyright 1999 The New York Times Company
The New York Times
July 11, 1999, Sunday, Late Edition - Final
SECTION: Section 1; Page 1; Column 1; National Desk
LENGTH: 1687 words
HEADLINE: Despite Low Prestige and Pay, More Answer the Call to Teach
BYLINE: By MARY B. W. TABOR
BODY:
After years of shying away from the field, a growing number of college
students, including those from elite liberal arts colleges, now say they want to
be schoolteachers.
Just over 10 percent of all freshmen say they want to teach in elementary or
secondary schools, according to a new survey by the Cooperative Institutional
Research Program at the University of California at Los Angeles. The
percentages, for 1998, the latest year available, are the highest since the
early 1970's and nearly twice what they were at their low point, in 1982.
Students at some of the nation's top universities, like Harvard and
Princeton, are also showing a growing interest.
Education and policy experts say these numbers reflect a shift in attitudes
about teaching -- from a career plagued by low pay and low prestige to a career
that is attracting smart and altruistic people.
Interest in teaching, the experts say, is being fueled by students' search
for meaningful work, concern about the plight of at-risk children and a response
to the national call for teachers with degrees in academic subjects, as well as
in education.
"I'm seeing a significant shift toward education, toward government and
public policy and community action type work," said Maureen Tobin, director of
the career development center at Kenyon College, the oldest private liberal arts
college in Ohio, where about 20 percent of the class of 1998 planned to become
teachers.
The U.C.L.A. survey, first conducted in 1966, polls 300,000 freshmen at over
600 American colleges and universities each year about their lives and
interests, including what they want to do after graduating.
The survey does not necessarily reflect actual career choices, which may
change after freshman year. Still, other signs of renewed interest in teaching
are appearing as well.
Applications to many of the nation's top graduate schools of education, which
can also include programs in counseling, human development or psychology, are on
the rise. While the number of students graduating from medical schools, law
schools and business schools has dropped or held steady in recent years, the
number of students earning degrees in education has increased, the National
PAGE
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The New York Times, July 11, 1999
Center for Education Statistics said.
The number of bachelor's and master's degrees in education rose 31 percent
from 1986 to 1996 (the last year available), compared with 22 percent in other
fields.
Recruiters at some teacher-placement organizations say applicant pools are
steady or growing. Teach for America, for example, says it has recorded a strong
increase in applications in recent years, especially from schools like Spelman
College, Cornell University, the University of Michigan, Stanford University and
Princeton. Last fall, Teach for America, which recruits college graduates to
teach in low-income districts for a minimum of two years, received applications
from 3,025 people for 500 positions, up from 2,745 applicants the year before.
"We've certainly noticed over the past two years that there is an increase in
interest from college students," said Wendy Kopp, president of Teach for
America.
"Part of that can be attributed to the fact that we have become more
sophisticated in our recruiting efforts. But there is also a mood on college
campuses right now that is conducive to people being interested in teaching.
People are looking for ways to assume a significant challenge and to make a
difference right out of college."
In response to the growing interest in improving the quality of teachers,
many top liberal arts colleges are setting up or revitalizing teacher
education programs. These programs, which provide the necessary coursework to
get a teaching degree or certification, have seen a surge in enrollment as well.
At Princeton University, for example, the number of students enrolled in its
teacher preparation program has risen to 25 from 5 since 1990. (The high was in
1975, when 77 students were enrolled.)
In the last 10 years, the number of students in Colby College's education and
human development program has doubled, to almost 100, said Mark Tappan, who
directs the program with his wife, Lyn Mikel Brown.
And Bennington College's teacher education program has grown to 24 students
from 2 since its inception two years ago. The program allows students to obtain
both a bachelor's degree in liberal arts and a master's in education in five
years.
Rosalind A. Hoffa, an associate dean at Amherst College and director of its
career center, has been watching interest in teaching grow on her campus as
well.
In early 1998, after years of refusing to give credits for teacher
education courses taken at nearby Mount Holyoke College, Amherst reversed
itself, Ms. Hoffa said. The college is now formally helping students earn
teaching credentials through the Holyoke program. To date, 35 students have
asked to participate.
Many liberal arts colleges do not offer the necessary coursework and student
teaching experience required by most states for certification. As a result, many
graduate schools of education are reporting growing numbers of applications
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The New York Times, July 11, 1999
from new college graduates with liberal arts degrees.
Harvard's Graduate School of Education, for one, has reported a 34 percent
increase in applications since 1990, said Roland Hence, a university spokesman.
The number of applications to the teacher education programs at Columbia
University's Teachers College has risen to more than 830 this year from 700 in
1994.
"We are getting a lot of career changers," said Barry M. Rosen, a spokesman
for Teachers College. "But there is also a rise in applications from new college
graduates and the average G.R.E. scores of the applicants has been going up as
well."
Many career counselors and college administrators say students are
responding, in part, to the national call for new teachers. The Federal
Department of Education has estimated that schools will need to hire 2.2 million
teachers over the next 10 years to meet a wave of retirements, rising
enrollments and demands for smaller class sizes.
It is precisely that call and the desire to make a difference that has drawn
students like Sarah Bertucci into teaching.
When she arrived at Princeton in the fall of 1993, Ms. Bertucci figured she
would major in geology and use her passion for nature and numbers to make a name
for herself doing scientific research, architecture or engineering.
"I saw myself in a nontraditional job for women," said Ms. Bertucci, who grew
up in Rochester. "I did not want to be a teacher."
But that summer after freshman year, she got a job as a teacher's assistant
at an alternative high school in Colorado.
"I loved the relationships with the students," she said. "I learned so much
from them. It hooked me pretty fast. The minute I got back to college, I ran
over to the teacher education program and said, 'Sign me up.
Now 23, she finished her student teaching requirements last November and is
looking for a job at a school near Boston.
David Robinson, a 23-year-old graduate student from Albany, said he decided
to become a teacher instead of a corporate executive after an unsatisfactory
internship he had while he was a student at the University of Notre Dame.
"I just got a feeling for the corporate life and realized it wasn't for me,"
said Mr. Robinson, who graduated with a bachelor's degree in English literature
in 1998 and is finishing up his master's at Teachers College. "I realized that
it was my tutoring experiences that were the most rewarding on a personal
level.'
This fall, Mr. Robinson will begin teaching 9th and 10th grade English at the
Bronx Leadership Academy in the South Bronx.
Still, despite indications of growing interest in teaching, the realities of
the job can still be discouraging, especially in urban schools, which find it
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The New York Times, July 11, 1999
hard to compete with suburban ones for new teachers.
Michael Casserly, executive director of the Council of the Great City
Schools, a coalition of urban school systems, said schools in big cities can
expect half of their new teachers to quit within the first three to five years
as a result of stress, long hours and difficult working conditions.
"The fact that the numbers are up is a good sign," " Mr. Casserly said. "The
challenge for us is to draw more of those new teachers into the urban systems,
where the shortages are greatest and burnout is SO high."
And while teachers' salaries are rising, they still lag behind those in other
fields. The American Federation of Teachers said first-year teachers made an
average of $25,735 in 1997-98. By contrast, new engineers were making about
$42,862 and those working in business administration made $34,831.
It was in part the pay issue that derailed Jonathan W. Thatcher. Mr.
Thatcher, 21, who will be a senior at Amherst this fall, decided recently to
scrap his plans to become a teacher and to go instead to law school.
"It was a combination of things,' Mr. Thatcher said from his home in
Mechanicsburg, Pa. "Coming out of Amherst, there are heavy expectations that you
are going to do something and do something big. That pressure is there."
After a minute, he added: "On a more personal level, my father lost his job
several years ago and his pension is not that much. If I could make the kind of
salary so that someday I could help them out if they got in a pinch, that would
make me very happy.
But others think that teaching is worth the sacrifice.
Sheldon K. Reid went to Harvard University in 1992 with plans to head to
medical school after graduation. But after sophomore year, Mr. Reid, 25, took a
year off to do community service and tutor at-risk high school students. By the
middle of his senior year, the Long Island native decided to put medical school
on hold and get his master's degree in education. He is now using his degree in
biochemistry to teach science at Newton North High School outside of Boston.
"I feel I'm really making a difference," said Mr. Reid, who also teaches
music at the school. "And as long as I can keep giving it my all, I'll
definitely keep doing it."
GRAPHIC: Photo: David Robinson, who is finishing his master's degree at Columbia
University's Teachers College, has been hired to teach English this fall to 9th-
and 10th-graders at the Bronx Leadership Academy in the South Bronx. (Philip
Greenberg for The New York Times) (pg. 17)
Graph: "Enticing Teachers" tracks percentage of college freshmen expressing an
interest in teaching careers, from 1973 to 1998. (Source: U.C.L.A. Cooperative
Institutional Research Program) (pg. 1)
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
LOAD-DATE: July 11, 1999
PAGE
11
LEVEL 1 - 9 OF 86 STORIES
Copyright 1999 The Hartford Courant Company
THE HARTFORD COURANT
May 14, 1999 Friday, STATEWIDE
SECTION: MAIN; Pg. A1
LENGTH: 1019 words
HEADLINE: PUBLIC TO PRIVATE;
;
PRIVATE SCHOOLS HAVE BECOME AN ATTRACTIVE CHOICE FOR SOME STUDENTS, PARENTS AND
TEACHERS
;
TEACHERS: A SLOWER PACE CUTS DOWN ON STRESS
BYLINE: WARREN WOODBERRY JR.; Courant Staff Writer
BODY:
Frustrated with grading hundreds of papers at home, a 120-student class
roster and a lack of school discipline, Jessica Lemoine quit teaching at
Farmington High School and took a job as a mathematics instructor at nearby Miss
Porter's private school.
Lemoine no longer puts up with frequent faculty meetings, cafeteria duty or
the bureaucracy she once wrestled with in the public sector. Her job at the
all-girl school offers her less work and more time at home.
"Porter has an administration that encourages me to be here, which is
outstanding," Lemoine said of the school where she teaches smaller classes of
students in the ninth and 10th grades. "They realize part of you is your
family."
In recent school years, some public school teachers like Lemoine have left
their systems for less demanding, less stressful jobs at some of Connecticut's
upscale, prestigious private schools. These schools, although they pay far less
than public schools, are drawing individuals seeking work in more personal,
family-like environments where faculty turnover is low, classes are small and
discipline problems are rare.
Although state education officials do not keep statistics on public school
teachers leaving for private schools, they suspect the number is growing. But
Tom Murphy, a spokesman for the state Department of Education, said the door
swings both ways, and that many teachers leave private schools for the higher
pay at public schools.
The National Center for Education Statistics has projected that national
private school enrollment will increase from 5 million to 6.2 million by 2005,
and that means private schools will need more teachers.
"I think there is a lot of freedom," Alice Baxter, dean of faculty at Loomis
Chaffee School in Windsor, said of private schools. "Private schools can offer
opportunities that are not at the public level."
PAGE
12
THE HARTFORD COURANT, May 14, 1999
State certification is not usually required of private school teachers. Most
allow for professional growth with graduate study, workshops, conferences and
seminars. Some offer faculty tuition remission or direct grants to their
children. And some private boarding schools offer faculty rent-free housing on
campus and/or meals for staff and their families at school cafeterias.
Before moving to Miss Porter's in September, Lemoine spent two years in
Farmington. There, she said, some students cursed her and some did not bother to
attend as many as 40 of her sessions. A third- year teacher with a lifetime
teaching certificate in Massachusetts, Lemoine said a main reason she abandoned
public school was because she did not want to repeat a certification program she
has already completed.
One major disadvantage to teaching in public schools is the discipline
problems, some private school teachers said.
"There is a very important distinction between the public school classroom
and the private school classroom," said Peter Tacy, executive director of the
Connecticut Association of Independent Schools. "One which is obvious is that
if the student is not behaving appropriately, the school can actually ask the
student to leave and that's that."
Researchers at the Klingenstein Center at Teachers College, Columbia
University, said teachers are drawn to private schools because of their autonomy
and empowerment, unique atmosphere and quality of students and school
facilities.
Murphy, however, said that not all teachers and public schools make for a
good match.
"You can't assume that it's only the teacher's decision to reject the public
school and say, 'I'm going to go,' where it could just be the environment," he
said. "They might not have the right fit in the school or have the right skills
for class management."
When public school teachers choose private school over public school they
give up much higher salaries, but often make up the difference in with the perks
they receive.
Less-experienced private school teachers earn about $10,000, compared with
$30,000 for state public school teachers. Veteran private school teachers earn
about $50,000, compared with $60,000 for state public school educators with a
sixth- year certification, one degree below a doctorate.
At The Hotchkiss boarding school in Salisbury, faculty and students can
participate in many activities, including golf, tennis, swimming, squash and
lacrosse.
"It has a lot of facilities some colleges would like to have," said George
Faison, a 13-year Hotchkiss English teacher.
After teaching 20 years in Massachusetts public schools, Faison, 59, said he
wanted a change. He took a $10,000 pay cut and moved with his wife, Lorraine, on
campus for free room and board.
PAGE
13
THE HARTFORD COURANT, May 14, 1999
The drop in salary paid off. Faison's son, Edward, received free tuition at
Hotchkiss to graduate in 1991, and Faison has taken sabbaticals in Greece and
Italy to study Greek drama for his ninth-grade mythology course.
In its college-like setting, Faison said, Hotchkiss students are motivated
learners and believe teachers make educational contributions that are difficult
to achieve in public schools.
"I marvel at the feat that people can go on in the public school setting,'
Faison said. "With that many kids, and doing it so well -- they are miracle
workers.
"
Private schools rebound in state
School/Town/Grades/Enrollment/Yearly Tuition/8 on scholarship.
Cornerstone Christian School/Manchester/K-12/135/$1,000 to $4,000, based on
family income/25.
Corpus Christi School of Religion/Wethersfield/preschool-8/507/$1,750/0.
Emmanuel Christian Academy/Newington/K-12/250/$2,500/0.
Hartford Seventh Day Adventist Area School/Hartford/k-8/130/$2,400/10.
Hebrew Academy of Greater Hartford/Bloomfield/preschool-8/205/$7,000/25.
Northwest Catholic High School/West Hartford/9-12/594/$6,420/NA.
The Master's School/Simsbury/preschool-12/442/$9,800 for high school/55.
Solomon Schechter Day School/West Hartford/preschool-8/266/average $8,500/33.
St. Francis of Assisi School/Torrington/K-8/212/starting at $1,400/0.
Trinity Christian Elementary School/Windsor/1-4/63/$2,400/1.
GRAPHIC: PHOTO 1: (color), TOM BROWN / THE HARTFORD COURANT
PHOTO 2: (b&w), JOANNE HOYOUNG LEE / THE HARTFORD COURANT
PHOTO 3: (b&w), SHANA SURECK-MEI / THE HARTFORD COURANT
GRAPHIC: (b&w), THE HARTFORD COURANT
; PHOTO 1: HELP IS GIVEN to Kate Geisler by Watkinson School
mathematics teacher Paige Kenausis. The former public school
administrator left the stress of that job for a work schedule that
accommodates her two children.
PHOTO 2: LEAVING Farmington High School, Jessica Lemoine of Canton
took a job as a mathematics instructor at Miss Porter's School, a
private school for girls in Farmington, shown in the background.
PHOTO 3: DURING A CLASS, George Faison, an English teacher at The
Hotchkiss School in Salisbury, enjoys a comment from ninth-grader
Devin McEwan. Faison joined the school after 20 years in
PAGE 14
THE HARTFORD COURANT, May 14, 1999
Massachusetts public schools.
GRAPHIC: Private schools rebound in state. [Library note: please see
chart at the end of the story above.]
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
LOAD-DATE: May 17, 1999
PAGE
15
LEVEL 1 - 12 OF 86 STORIES
Copyright 1999 American Demographics, Inc.
American Demographics
May, 1999
SECTION: INDICATORS; Pg. 27
LENGTH: 78 words
HEADLINE: News They Can't Use
BODY:
High-school civics teachers might wince when they see these figures. A study
by the National Center for Education Statistics finds that less than half of
high-school students read about national news in any given week, and even fewer
talk about politics with their parents. While many students (43 percent)
believe controversial books don't belong in a public library, nearly nine out of
ten say people should be allowed to speak out against religion or church.
GRAPHIC: Graphs 1 through 6, READ ALL ABOUT IT; Graph 1, Students read national
news (8); Graph 2, Students watch/listen to nat'l news (8); Graph 3, Students
watch/listen to news with parents; Graph 4, Parents read national news (%);
Graph 5, Parents watch/listen to nat'l news (%) ; Graph 6, Parents say child
watch/listens to news; Graphs 1 through 6, Source: National Center for
Education Statistics
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
LOAD-DATE: May 7, 1999
PAGE
16
LEVEL 1 - 15 OF 86 STORIES
Copyright 1999 The Washington Post
The Washington Post
April 11, 1999, Sunday, Final Edition
SECTION: MAGAZINE; Pg. W30
LENGTH: 873 words
HEADLINE: THEN & NOW; The modern classroom is a much different place than the
one you may recall
BYLINE: Linda Perlstein
BODY:
In America's elementary schools, far more has changed in the last 30 years
than just the boundaries on classroom globes. You probably have some idea of
that from the last time you tried to help your kid on her division by telling
her to "borrow." Duh, Mom, we "regroup" now.
Many tools, of course, are different. The compasses are now safer plastic
instead of perilously pointy metal, and there are fancy scientific calculators
in math classes. Teachers no longer are smeared with blue ink from making copies
on recalcitrant "ditto" machines. Film strips are still around, but the 1 6mm
projector (shut your eyes and you can hear it: "thwucka-thwucka-thwucka") has
been replaced, of course, by the VCR. Third-graders long ago stopped spending
half an hour a day on penmanship drills. How could they? They're busy learning
how to "keyboard," as in computers. And you won't find a potato peeler in the
kitchen: Lunch isn't cooked in the cafeteria anymore.
But what's changed the most, longtime elementary school teachers say, is
what, and how, children learn -- and teachers are constantly struggling to keep
up. Regina Mitchell, who has spent three decades teaching in Montgomery County
-- and is now at Rock Creek Forest Elementary School -- puts it this way: "The
population has changed, the curriculum has changed, and the style I have to
teach has changed. There's no such thing as having a file cabinet of ideas you
can run to because you've been teaching 20 years." Things are just changing too
fast for that.
Learning is hands-on as a rule these days, with ready-made kits provided for
each curriculum. Thirty years ago, learning mostly just came out of books, and
the teacher who wanted to use actual stuff to demonstrate concepts usually had
to conjure it up herself. Old habits die hard for long-timers like Mitchell:
"You can tell the dinosaur teachers -- our closets are filled with any
container, any this or that, that could become a science experiment," she says.
As for the younger breed: "These little kids" -- her fellow teachers, she means
-- "they don't know how easy life is. It's all in a box!"
Students are introduced to more sophisticated concepts at earlier ages --
raise your hand if you learned about opportunity costs in fifth grade. The
simplistic short stories of the basal readers have been replaced by folk tales
from around the world and novels. Children have to think more analytically,
explain how they got their answers. What they learn in one class is integrated
PAGE
17
The Washington Post, April 11, 1999
into another. Years ago, science was science. Now, it's science and reading and
math and writing. And standardized tests are no longer a once-a-year nuisance;
they're a year-round obsession.
Decades ago, children new to English sat through class while other kids
helped them learn the language, word by word; now they get supplemental
instruction. Special education kids, on the other hand, had their own classes;
now, for the most part, they're included with everyone else.
Oh, and don't forget Ritalin. "Back then," says Paula Woods, who has taught
in Howard County since 1968 and is now at Manor Woods Elementary, "hyper kids
were hyper kids."
Herewith some facts and figures to peruse -- with your kids -- about how
schools have, and have not, changed. Expect a quiz.
Linda Perlstein covers education for The Post's Metro section.
THE SCHOOLS 1966 1996
Number of public elementary schools 73,400 61,165
Number of students (in millions) 28.2 32.8
Spending per student $ 3,167 $ 6,961
% of students in public schools 86 88
Number of students per class 28 24
% of legally desegregated school districts 89 100
% of districts with both black
and white students 56 77
% of black children in school with
white students* 16 94
% of teachers using PCs in class 0 69
THE STUDENTS
White enrollment as % of students 86 77
% transported to school at public expense* 40 58
% getting subsidized lunch 36 38
THE TEACHERS
Average salary $ 30,508 $ 37,300
PAGE
18
The Washington Post, April 11, 1999
Median experience in years 10 15
Mean age 41 43
% with master's degree or above 17 52
Men as % of teachers 10 9
% eating lunch with their students 63 46
% in a union 70 90
% who would become a teacher again 84 67
* Includes elementary and secondary school students, not just elementary as
is the case with the rest of the statistics.
Calculated in 1996 dollars.
SOURCES: National Center for Education Statistics (special thanks to Tom
Snyder) and National Education Association (special thanks to Charlie Ericksen).
All data are for public schools.
GRAPHIC: ILL,, MICHAEL SLOAN
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
LOAD-DATE: April 11, 1999
PAGE
19
LEVEL 1 - 25 OF 86 STORIES
Copyright 1998 Information Access Company,
a Thomson Corporation Company;
ASAP
Copyright 1998 American Association for the Advancement of
Science
Science
December 4, 1998
SECTION: No. 5395, Vol. 282; Pg. 1830; ISSN: 0036-8075
IAC-ACC-NO: 53588773
LENGTH: 3178 words
HEADLINE: What Can We Really Learn from TIMSS?Third International Mathematics
and Science Study
BYLINE: Schmidt, William H.; McKnight, Curtis C.
BODY:
There has recently been great concern about the quality of precollege
education in science and mathematics in the United States and other countries.
Evaluation of the state of education as well as policy options requires data on
the practices and results of national education systems. The goal of the Third
International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) was to provide such data. It
included an analysis of the education systems of over 40 countries, including
textbooks and several achievement tests. The admittedly complex results of such
a multifaceted study (1) have received considerable publicity and some
criticism. Some have questioned whether TIMSS can even be used to inform
policies related to science and mathematics education (2). Here we summarize
some of the results (3-8), argue that many of the findings are robust, and
discuss the implications for education policy.
Dimensions of TIMSS
The TIMSS study was wide-ranging, with many facets. Cross-national
comparative achievement testing was done in each participating country in
science and mathematics. Testing was done for the two adjacent grades containing
the most 9-year-olds (hereafter referred to as third and fourth grades, as was
the case in the United States), the two containing the most 13-year-olds
(hereafter, seventh and eighth grades), and the final year of secondary school.
The latter population included a sample of the entire population of students in
the final year of secondary school who took science and mathematics general
knowledge tests. It also included a specialized sample of those in their final
year who had taken advanced courses in either mathematics or science (or both)
that is, only physics for science and the appropriate advanced mathematics
course (a mixture of precalculus and calculus in the United States).
Although this has received less attention, TIMSS also included analysis of
official curriculum documents and textbooks as well as surveys of students,
teachers, school officials, and national officials (3). The goal was to develop
a map of the structure of each national education system, both to inform study
of that system and to guide sampling for achievement testing. A referee
monitored sampling designs and implementations, and significant deviations
PAGE
20
Science December 4, 1998
were indicated in reported results.
The use of adjacent grades in the third/fourth- and seventh/eighth-grade
populations allowed the estimation of differences between cross-section samples
of grade pairs, which is a fair surrogate for gains that might have been
measured by a true longitudinal design.
Some Results of TIMSS
The TIMSS results show a decline in the relative standing of U.S. students
from fourth to eighth grade in both mathematics and science, as compared to
those in other countries. In science, U.S. third- and fourth-grade students were
near the top of participating countries, whereas U.S. seventh- and eighth-grade
students placed just above the cross-national average. In mathematics, the drop
was from above the cross-national average to below it.
To relate achievement results more directly to curricular emphases, around
20 sub-areas were defined from the test items in each of mathematics and science
for these two pairs of grades. Sub-areas where U.S. students did score somewhat
better (for example, earth science, fractions, and decimals) corresponded to
topics that received more extensive emphasis and coverage as revealed by the
curriculum document and textbook analyses. The lower U.S. seventh- and
eighth-grade scores for mathematics, compared to third- and fourth-grade scores,
were true not only globally but also across most of the 20 sub-areas in
mathematics. Use of paired grades also allowed single-grade "difference scores"
to be computed. In the United States, in both science and mathematics, the
seventh- to eighth-grade differences were consistently smaller than the third-
to fourth-grade gains.
These achievement data seem to be clearly consistent with information
gathered as part of the curriculum, textbook, and teaching data. U.S. curricula,
as an aggregate, consistently covered more topics than did the curricula of
virtually all other TIMSS countries. The U.S. mathematics and science textbooks
included more topics and were the largest (literally) among those of the TIMSS
countries. U.S. teachers covered more topics than those of most other TIMSS
countries. They spent little time on most topics. For example, the only topic to
receive more than 19 class periods of instruction in eighth grade was common
fractions, a topic typically finished in earlier grades in many high-achieving
TIMSS countries.
There was a close match between curricular differences and achievement
differences. At fourth grade, only one nation (Korea) outperformed U.S. students
on the total science score. When examined in detail, however, U.S. students'
performance was weakest in all four areas related to physics and physical
science. Similar weaknesses held at eighth grade. These results suggest that no
serious foundation in physics was provided through the first 8 years, as
compared to that provided by other TIMSS countries. Direct data on curricular
emphases (for example, whether attention was to be focused on physical science
topics) and textbook content (for example, pages devoted to physical science
topics), as well as teacher reports of time spent covering physical science
topics, support this suggestion (7, 8).
Similarly, in geometry the relative performance of U.S. students was much
lower by the seventh and eighth grades than it was in the third and fourth
grades (see the table). Analyses of documents and textbooks showed that U.S.
PAGE
21
Science December 4, 1998
treatment of geometry was comparatively weak after fourth grade [little focus on
geometry in official curricula and few textbook pages devoted to it (and those
only to simple aspects of geometry such as naming polygons) ] (6, 8).
Nations with Average Scores
Significantly Higher Than the U.S.
GRADE 4
GRADE 8
Nation
% Correct
Nation
% Correct
Hong Kong
74
Japan
80
Australia
74
Singapore
76
Korea
75
GRADE 8
Hong Kong
73
Czech Republic
66
France
66
Bulgaria
65
Belgium-Flemish
64
Russian Federation
63
Slovak Republic
63
Thailand
62
Slovenia
60
Hungary
60
Switzerland
60
Netherlands
59
Belgium-French
58
Canada
58
Australia
57
PAGE
22
Science December 4, 1998
Israel
57
Austria
57
Latvia
57
International (*)
56
New Zealand
54
England
54
Denmark
54
Nations with Average Scores
Not Significantly Different From the U.S.
England
74
Lithuania
53
Scotland
72
Romania
52
Japan
72
Scotland
52
Singapore
72
Iceland
51
Korea
72
Norway
51
Canada
72
Greece
51
Slovenia
72
Spain
49
Netherlands
71
Sweden
48
United States
71
United States
48
Czech Republic
71
Cyprus
47
Portugal
44
Nations with Average Scores
Significantly Lower Than the U.S.
Austria
67
Iran, Islamic
PAGE
23
Science December 4, 1998
Latvia
67
Republic
43
Ireland
66
Kuwait
38
New Zealand
66
Colombia
29
Hungary
66
South Africa
24
International (*)
64
Iceland
63
Israel
62
Norway
58
Greece
53
Thailand
53
Cyprus
53
Portugal
52
Iran, Islamic
Republic
42
Kuwait
36
SOURCE: I.V.S Mullis, M.O. Martin, A. E. Beaton, E. J. Gonzalez, D. L.
Kellu, T. A. Smith, Mathematics Achievement in the Primary School Years: IEA's
Third International Mathematics and Scince Study (Center for the Study of
Testing, Evaluation, and Educational Policy, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA,
1997), p. 47. A. E. Beaton et al., Mathematics Achievement in the Middle School
Years: IEA's Third International Mathematics and Science Study (Center for the
Study of Testing, Evaluation, and Educational Policy, Boston College, Chestnut
Hill, MA, 1996), p. 41.
(*) Average of national averages of the participating countries.
Table 1. Performance of students in various countries on the TIMSS geometry
achievement tests in the third and fourth, and seventh and eighth grades.
Countries are grouped in comparison to the scores of the United States.
Other aspects of mathematics and science curricula were also consistent with
the pattern of results from third to eighth grade. The U.S. curriculum appears
not only to have been unfocused but highly repetitive, lacking coherence, and
providing little rigorous intellectual challenge during the middle years,
particularly when compared to those of other TIMSS countries (4, 8). Children in
most TIMSS nations began the study of algebra, geometry, physics, and chemistry
during fifth through eighth grades. In contrast, U.S. students continued
studying elementary arithmetic and science as late as eighth grade.
PAGE
24
Science December 4, 1998
In addition, out of almost 40 areas in mathematics and science combined and
at fourth and eighth grades, the United States was the only nation not to show
differences from one adjacent grade to the next that would rank it in the top
quartile of countries in at least one area (8). This pattern echoes the U.S.
pattern of dividing attention among many topics. The cumulative effect of such
small gains is seen in the consistent decline of U.S. rankings.
Most recent criticisms of TIMSS results have focused on the
end-of-secondary-school results. These included a general knowledge test for
mathematics and science designed to draw on knowledge at about the eighth-grade
level in all countries. These results showed still lower comparative rankings of
U.S. students in both mathematics and science, which given the relatively
average to poor standing at eighth grade and the general pattern of many U.S.
students not continuing to study science or mathematics should hardly be
surprising.
The end-of-secondary results must be viewed in the context of the results
from the other grades tested and, in the case of the advanced topics, from the
analysis of curriculum documents and textbooks. The results for physical science
in fourth and eighth grade also hardly seem to justify surprise at weak
comparative performance in physics at the end of secondary school. The
end-of-secondary results are consistent both with achievement results at earlier
points at the sub-area level and with curricular and textbook data.
Some Criticisms of TIMSS
One criticism of the TIMSS results has been that the differences from
sub-area to subarea of achievement results indicate that the results are not
robust and should not be used to inform policy discussions. However, the
differences in achievement are consistent with and seem to reflect curricular
differences. Curricular and systemic differences are legitimate variables that
policy can affect. This sensitivity of achievement to curricular factors is thus
a demonstration of robustness rather than a basis for criticism.
A second criticism has been that the sampling at the end of secondary school
is inadequate and invalidates the TIMSS results. Were those particular results
to be inadequate, they would hardly invalidate the more robust and less
problematic results in the earlier grades and the relationship of achievement
differences to curricular differences. As it is, the sampling and population
definitions were more problematic at the end of secondary school, and more
exceptions had to be documented. However, the consistency of the findings with
the curricular results and the achievement results from the earlier grades
indicates that these data provide at least general indications of the cumulative
effect of schooling in mathematics and science, even if the interpretation of
those indications is not as straightforward.
The end-of-secondary populations were designed for a yield study of what
comes out of the pipeline of precollege education in mathematics and the
sciences. It was never assumed that the students would be similar in age, years
of schooling, or in percent of age cohort still in school. Were those the
criteria, then the end-of-secondary results would be of questionable use (9).
However, from a policy perspective it seems worthwhile to compare the yield of
national educational systems. What is known at the end of secondary school is
relevant to establishing policies to enhance international economic
competitiveness. These data are thus useful as one indicator of comparative
PAGE
25
Science December 4, 1998
strengths and weakness that can help to inform policy discussions.
References and Notes
(1.) W. H. Schmidt and C. C. McKnight, Educ. Eval. Pol. Anal, 17, 337
(1995).
(2.) I.C. Rotberg, Science 280, 1030 (1998).
(3.) TINSS reports are issued from various sources. The international TIMSS
Study Center is located at Boston College and has issued several reports,
including I. V. S. Nullis et al., Mathematics and Science Achievement in the
Final Year of Secondary School: IEA's Third International Mathematics and
Science Study (TIMSS International Study Center, Boston College, Chestnut Hill,
MA, 1998). They also issued separate reports for primary school and for middle
school mathematics and science. All of these reports are available at
www.csteep.bc.edu/TIMSS. The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) of
the U.S. Department of Education has issued a separate series of U.S.-oriented
reports that also place descriptive results in an international context. This
series includes Pursuing Excellence: A Study of U.S. Twelfth-Grade Mathematics
and Science Achievement in International Context (NCES 98-049, U.S. Government
Printing Office, Washington, DC, 1998). Corresponding reports are available from
NCES on third- and fourth-grade science and mathematics and on seventh- and
eighth-grade science and mathematics at nces.ed.gov/timss. In addition, a series
of monographs have been prepared at the U.S. TIMSS Research Center (4-8).
(4.) W. H. Schmidt, C. C. McKnight, S. A. Raizen, A Splintered Vision: An
Investigation of U.S. Science and Mathematics Education (Kluwer, Dordrecht,
1997).
(5.) W. H. Schmidt et al., Characterizing Pedagogical Flow: An Investigation
of Mathematics and Science Teaching in Six Countries (Kluwer, Dordrecht, 1996).
(6.) W. H. Schmidt, C. C. McKnight, G. A. Valverde, R. T. Houang, D. E.
Wiley, Many Visions, Many Aims: A Cross-National Investigation of Curricular
Intentions in School Mathematics (Kluwer, Dordrecht, 1997).
(7.) W. H. Schmidt, S. A. Raizen, E. D. Britton, L. J. Bianchi, R. G. Wolfe,
Many Visions, Many Aims: A Cross-National Investigation of Curricular Intentions
in School Science (Kluwer, Dordrecht, 1997).
(8.) W. H. Schmidt, C. C. McKnight, L. Cogan, P. Jakwerth, R.T. Houang,
Facing the Consequences (in press).
(9.) In the context of this question of "comparability versus yield," the
naming of the NCES end-of-secondary report (Pursuing Excellence: A Study of U.S.
Twelfth-Grade Mathematics and Science Achievement in International Context)
seems particularly unfortunate. The report focuses on the United States, where
the end of secondary school is the 12th grade, and thus seeks to put U.S.
12th-grade results in an international context. It does not imply that the end
of secondary school in all TIMSS countries is the same as the U.S. 12th grade.
William H. Schmidt and Curtis C. McKnight
PAGE 26
Science December 4, 1998
W. H. Schmidt is with the TIMSS U.S. National Research Center, Michigan
State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA. E-mail: [email protected] C. C.
McKnight is in the Department of Mathematics, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK
73019, USA. E-mail: [email protected]
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
IAC-CREATE-DATE: January 26, 1999
LOAD-DATE: January 27, 1999
PAGE
27
LEVEL 1 - 27 OF 86 STORIES
Copyright 1998 SOFTLINE INFORMATION, INC.
The Ethnic NewsWatch
Journal of Blacks in Higher Education, The
October 31, 1998
SECTION: No. 21; Pg. 82
LENGTH: 922 words
HEADLINE: News and Views: The Enduring State of Segregation in Southern Higher
Education
BODY:
News and Views: The Enduring State of Segregation in Southern Higher Education
At the conclusion of the Civil War, 19 southern and border states established
public black colleges for the purpose of training academics to teach at the
segregated black public schools in their states. For most of the next century,
black students seeking public higher education in the southern states were
required to attend the segregated institutions since they were barred from
admission to the predominantly white institutions in the state. After the 1954
Supreme Court decision in Brown V. Board of Education, blacks won admission to
the flagship universities in each of these states.
Yet in the ensuing years, black college students continued to be steered to
the predominantly black colleges in the South. Admission requirements at white
flagship state universities were often rigged to discourage matriculation by
blacks. large numbers of college-bound African-American students had poor
qualifications for college because they came from rigidly segregated and poorly
funded public schools. On most white campuses, black students did not feel
welcome. Hostile racial attitudes meant that many black students preferred the
safety and security of the black colleges. For the most part, the higher
education systems of these states remained solidly segregated and unequal.
Then in 1992, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in United States V. Fordice that
these states must take affirmative steps to end their systems of segregated
higher education. Under court order many states began to take serious steps to
integrate their higher education systems. North Carolina set up a racially
targeted scholarship program to attract black students to white campuses and
white students to black campuses. In Florida a feeder program now assists
students from predominantly white community colleges to win admittance to the
state's historically black university. Other states moved popular academic
programs to black campuses in order to increase the number of white students.
Mississippi even considered merging black and white campuses into one
institution.
But six years after Fordice segregation has persisted in southern higher
education. According to a new report by the Southern Education Foundation (SEF)
entitled Miles to Go: A Report on Black Students and Postsecondary Education in
the South, "remnants of the past continue to restrict opportunity for black
students, limiting their aspirations, and threatening the region's hopes for a
brighter future."
PAGE
28
The Ethnic NewsWatch, October 31, 1998
According to the report, in many states there has been little or no progress
in increasing access to college for black youth. For example, in Mississippi
blacks made up 40.5 percent of the college freshmen in 1976. Thirty years later,
in 1996, blacks make up only 40.8 percent of all college freshmen. In Tennessee,
the black percentage of all college freshmen actually declined from 22.3 percent
in 1976 to 17.7 percent in 1996. In Arkansas and Kentucky the percentage of all
bachelor's degree recipients who were black actually declined from 1976 to 1996.
Regrettably, the report breaks no new ground. It relies for the most part on
U.S. Department of Education statistics that are widely available and have been
reported extensively in other publications, including JBHE. The report is
valuable in that it presents the summary information in a concise, easy-to-read
format with a generous number of graphs and tables. The SEF report is of further
value because it has received widespread distribution and press coverage outside
the normal channels that specialize in higher education. Most people in the
academic world are well aware of the persistence of the segregated higher
education systems in the southern states. But, from time to time, it is
important to bring this message to the larger audience, one that is repeatedly
bombarded with messages from conservatives that America's race problem has
substantially been resolved.
Black Access to Higher Education, Particularly Quality Higher Education,
Remains Restricted in a Majority of the
Southern and Boarder States
Black % Black % of
Black % of of All Freshmen at
18- to 24- College Flagship
Year-Old Freshmen University State Population in 1996 in 1996 Alabama 31.6
25.1 9.9 Arkansas 20.7 19.9 9.4 Delaware 22.2 16.2 6.4 Florida 20.0 17.6 7.7
Georgia 32.3 23.9 7.1 Kentucky 8.2 9.9 7.0 Louisiana 36.7 31.6 18.6 Maryland
30.6 28.8 16.3 Mississippi 43.6 40.8 10.2 Missouri 13.0 6.8 7.7 North Carolina
26.3 23.5 11.8 Ohio 12.7 9.1 8.7 Oklahoma 8.7 10.1 8.4 Pennsylvania 10.8 9.1 4.6
South Carolina 36.1 20.2 21.5 Tennessee 19.3 17.7 5.2 Texas 12.9 13.8 4.1
Virginia 21.7 17.3 11.8 West Virginia 3.5 5.4 3.8
Source: Southern Education Foundation.
ETHNIC-GROUP: African American/Caribbean/African
LANGUAGE: English
LOAD-DATE: May 14, 1999
PAGE
1
LEVEL 1 - 71 OF 86 STORIES
Copyright 1997 American Demographics, Inc.
Forecast
November, 1997
SECTION: Vol. 17, No. 11; Pg. 7
LENGTH: 576 words
HEADLINE: Demographics of Student Debtors
BODY:
Do student loans discourage young college graduates from taking low-paying
occupations? If they do, the effect is slight, according to the National Center
for Education Statistics' surveys of the class of 1993.
The likelihood that students will borrow for their college education varies
according to the student's demographics and educational choices. More than six
in ten black and Hispanic college students take out loans to pay for school,
compared with 48 percent of non-Hispanic white students. Students from poorer
households are more given to borrowing, as are students who take longer to
graduate, and those who go to private schools. Yet most debtors don't stay in
debt long. In June 1994, only 37 percent of those who received a bachelor's
degree in 1993 were still carrying undergraduate debt.
Anxieties about debt do not prod the average student toward a higher-paying
job. Borrowers and non-borrowers are equally likely to say that good income
potential is important in determining what kind of work they seek (45 percent of
each group say this). In 1994, 56 percent of employed borrowers and 54 percent
of non-borrowers said their current job was closely related to their
undergraduate degree.
Borrowers are slightly less likely to apply to graduate or professional
school: 27 percent did, compared with 31 percent of non-borrowers. The share of
students who considered graduate school but then decided against applying was 75
percent among borrowers and 71 percent for non-borrowers. But only 10 percent of
the borrowers who decided against graduate school said the primary reason was
too much undergraduate debt. Free copies of Early Labor Force Experiences and
Debt Burden are available for a limited time from the National Library of
Education; telephone (800) 424-1616, or the National Education Data Resource
Center (NEDRC) ; telephone (703) 845-3151. The report is also available for
download at this Internet address: http://nces.ed.gov/pubs97/97286.html.
MORTARBOARD MORTGAGES
(percent of 1993 bachelor's degree recipients who took out student loans,
average amount borrowed, and distribution of borrowing, by sex, race/ethnicity,
age, and type of institution)
Note: This table may be divided, and additional information on a particular
entry may appear on more than one screen
% who
average
borrowed
borrowed
total
49%
$ 10,167
male
50
10,428
female
49
9,945
PAGE
2
Forecast, November, 1997
black, non-hispanic
64
9,570
hispanic
61
7,966
white, non-hispanic
48
10,321
age received bachelor's
degree
24 or younger
45
10,360
25 to 29
65
9,626
30 or older
55
9,725
degree-granting institution
public, four-year
46
8,696
private, nonprofit four-year
54
12,760
amount borrowed
less than
$ 5,000 to
$ 10,000
$ 15,000
$ 5,000
$ 9,999
to $ 14,999
or more
total
29%
28%
21%
22%
male
28
29
20
23
female
29
28
21
22
black, non-hispanic
34
22
24
20
hispanic
42
26
15
17
white, non-hispanic
27
29
21
23
age received bachelor's
degree
24 or younger
29
28
20
23
25 to 29
26
31
24
20
30 or older
31
29
19
22
degree-granting institution
public, four-year
34
30
19
17
private, nonprofit four-year
20
24
23
32
Source: National Center for Education Statistics
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
LOAD-DATE: November 18, 1997
PAGE
3
LEVEL 1 - 78 OF 86 STORIES
Copyright 1997 Information Access Company,
a Thomson Corporation Company;
ASAP
Copyright 1997 Association for Computing Machinery Inc.
Communications of the ACM
October, 1997
SECTION: No. 10, Vol. 40; Pg. 103; ISSN: 0001-0782
IAC-ACC-NO: 20221382
LENGTH: 4644 words
HEADLINE: The incredible shrinking pipeline; women students of computer science
BYLINE: Camp, Tracy
BODY:
The ratio of women involved in computer science from high school to graduate
school has been dwindling at a startling pace over the past decade. Is there
hope in sight?
The pipeline shrinkage problem concerning women in computer science is a
known phenomenon [ILLUSTRATION FOR FIGURE 1 OMITTED]. Although women make up 50%
of high school computer science (CS) classes [10], the percentage of bachelor's
degrees in CS awarded to women in the 1993-94 academic year was only 28.4%
[7]. (1) At the graduate level, for the academic year 1993-94, the percentages of
degrees in CS awarded to women dropped even further: 25.8% at the M.S. level and
15.4% at the D. level. In addition, for women who become faculty members, the
pipeline shrinks through the academic ranks. According to the Computing Research
Association's Taulbee Survey, only 15.6% assistant professors, 9.4% associate
professors, and 5.7% full professors were women in CS Ph.D.-granting departments
during the academic year 1993-94 [1].
The title of this article, however, is the incredible shrinking pipeline: The
percentage of bachelor's degrees awarded in CS to women decreased almost every
year over the last decade. In other words, not only does the pipeline shrink
from high school to graduate school, but it also shrinks at the bachelor's level
[ILLUSTRATION FOR FIGURE 2 OMITTED). Furthermore, while the percentage of
bachelor's degrees awarded in CS to women decreased, corresponding percentages
of other science and engineering disciplines increased. Since the number of
women at the bachelor's level affects the number of women at levels higher in
the pipeline and in the job market, these facts are of great concern.
There are a number of reasons why we need to improve the percentage of
degrees awarded in CS to women. In short, there is a critical labor shortage in
CS and, although women are more than half the population, they are a
significantly underrepresented percentage of the population earning CS degrees.
In this article, we look at the harsh facts concerning the percentage of
degrees awarded in CS to women. We study the trend of degrees awarded in CS
since 1980, and compare the trend in CS to other science and engineering
disciplines. We consider the relationship between the percentage of degrees
awarded to women by a CS department and the college the CS department is
PAGE
4
Communications of the ACM October, 1997
within. We find that CS departments in engineering colleges graduate, on
average, proportionately fewer women than CS departments in non-engineering
colleges. We request that the community respond to the facts and speculations
presented in this article.
Degree Trends: 1980-81 Through 1993-94
We have already established that as women progress from high school to
graduate school, they will be part of a smaller and smaller proportion of
students. In addition, from 1983-84 to 1992-93, the percentage of B.A./B.S.
degrees awarded in CS to women consistently decreased. The percentages of M.S.
degrees awarded in CS to women were more stable over this period, and the
percentages of Ph.D. degrees awarded in CS to women (though still meager)
increased.
The National Center for Education Statistics at the U.S. Department of
Education classifies CS departments within the Computer and Information Sciences
(CIS) category. Figure 3 illustrates the percentage of degrees awarded within
different fields of study in CIS for B.A./B.S., M.S., and Ph.D. levels in
1993-94. As illustrated, the bulk of the degrees awarded are in the general
computer science category, with information science and systems a distant
second. We, therefore, use the acronym CS is this article to represent all CIS
fields. Table 1 lists the number of B.A/B.S, M.S. and Ph.D. degrees awarded in
CS from 1980-81 to 1993-94 and the percentage of recipients that were women.
Table 1. Degrees awarded in CS: 1980-81 to 1993-94
Academic
B.A./B.S.
%
M.S.
oto
Ph.D.
%
Year
Degrees
Women
Degrees
Women
Degrees
Women
1980-81
15,121
32.5
4,218
23.0
252
9.9
1981-82
20,267
34.8
4,935
26.5
251
8.4
1982-83
24,510
36.3
5,321
28.3
262
13.0
1983-84
32,172
37.1
6,190
29.3
251
10.4
1984-85
38,878
36.8
7,101
28.7
248
10.1
1985-86
41,889
35.7
8,070
29.9
344
13.1
1986-87
39,589
34.7
8,481
29.4
374
13.9
1987-88
34,523
32.4
9,197
26.9
428
11.2
1988-89
30,454
30.8
9,414
28.0
551
15.4
1989-90
27,257
29.9
9,677
28.1
627
14.8
PAGE
5
Communications of the ACM October, 1997
1990-91
25,083
29.3
9,324
29.6
676
13.6
1991-92
24,557
28.7
9,530
27.8
772
13.3
1992-93
24,241
28.1
10,163
27.1
805
14.4
1993-94
24,200
28.4
10,416
25.8
810
15.4
Although the percentages of Ph.D. degrees awarded in CS to women are very
low, the numbers from the three most recent years available suggest the
percentages are in an upward trend. However, due to the shrinking of the
pipeline at the B.A./B.S. level, it is unlikely this upward trend will continue.
From Table 1, we conclude there is some good news at the Ph.D. level.
*
The number of Ph.D. degrees awarded in CS continues to increase.
*
The percentage of Ph.D degrees awarded in CS to women in 1993-94 was
equal to the percentage of Ph.D. degrees awarded in CS to women in 1988-89 (the
year when the percentage was at its highest level).
*
The percentage of Ph.D. degrees awarded in CS to women in 1993-94 was
almost 50% higher than the percentage of Ph.D. degrees awarded in CS to women a
decade ago (10.4% versus 15.4%).
Some members of our community are concerned about the first point. As the
number of Ph.D. degrees awarded in CS continues to increase, university
positions are more difficult to obtain. Furthermore, many recent Ph.D. graduates
do not seem prepared for the realities they face in the job market [4]. (2) In
contrast to this viewpoint, we present the following numbers. First, the
unemployment rate for people with a Ph.D. in CS is extremely low (1.1%) [6]. (3)
Second, the underemployment rate for people with a Ph.D. in CS, or the rate of
people with a Ph.D. in CS who work outside the CS discipline, is low (3.6%) [6].
Third, there is only a 4% Ph.D. surplus in CS, which is "the lowest surplus of
any science and engineering field." [6].
There is mixed news at the M.S. level as well. The number of M.S. degrees
awarded in CS continues to increase, but the percentage of M.S. degrees awarded
in CS to women has reached its lowest level since 1980-1981. Due to the
shrinking of the pipeline at the B.A./B.S. level, it is likely the percentage of
M.S. degrees awarded in CS to women over the next few years will continue to
decline.
Table 2. B.A./B.S. degrees awarded in all disciplines: 1980-81 to
1993-94
Academic
B.A./B.S.
oto
Year
Degrees
Women
PAGE
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Communications of the ACM October, 1997
1980-81
935,140
49.8
1981-82
952,998
50.3
1982-83
969,510
50.6
1983-84
974,309
50.5
1984-85
979,477
50.7
1985-86
987,823
50.8
1986-87
991,264
51.5
1987-88
994,829
52.0
1988-89
1,018,755
52.5
1989-90
1,051,344
53.2
1990-91
1,094,538
53.9
1991-92
1,136,553
54.2
1992-93
1,165,178
54.3
1993-94
1,169,275
54.5
At the B.A./B.S. level, there is only bad news: The number of B.A./B.S.
degrees awarded in CS has steadily decreased since 1985, and the decrease is
occurring at a faster pace for women than men. The fact that the number of
B.A./B.S. degrees awarded in CS is decreasing at a faster pace for women than
men is especially striking when one considers the total population receiving
B.A./B.S. degrees, and the percentage of bachelor's degrees awarded to women by
disciplines similar to CS.
Table 2 lists the total number of B.A./B.S. degrees awarded in all
disciplines from 1980-81 through 1993-94, and the percentage of the recipients
that were women. The number of B.A./B.S. degrees awarded in all disciplines
continues to increase, and the increase is at a faster pace for women than for
men.
Figures 4 and 5 compare the trend of degrees awarded in CS with the trends of
degrees awarded in disciplines similar to CS from 1980-81 through 1993-94. The
majors within a discipline are determined by the National Center for Education
Statistics:
* Bio/Life = Biological/Life Sciences which includes biology, biochemistry
and biophysics, botany, cell and molecular biology, microbiology/bacteriology,
zoology, and other biological sciences.
PAGE
7
Communications of the ACM October, 1997
*
Eng = chemical, civil, electrical, mechanical, and other
engineering-related technologies.
*
Math = mathematics and statistics.
*
Phy = Physical Sciences which includes astronomy, chemistry, geology,
physics, and other physical sciences.
Figure 4 illustrates that while the number of B.A./B.S. degrees awarded in
other science and engineering disciplines decreased from 1985-86 to 1993-94, the
decrease in CS was the most extreme. From 1985-86 to 1993-94, Eng decreased
18.2% (95,660 to 78,225), Math decreased 16.0% (17,147 to 14,396), and Phy
decreased 15.3% (21,717 to 18,400), but CS decreased 42.2% (41,889 to 24,200).
Bio/Life increased 33.4% (38,524 to 51,383) during the same period. Figure 5
illustrates that the percentages of B.A./B.S. degrees awarded to women by
science and engineering disciplines (except CS) increased annually over the last
13 years. CS is the only science and engineering discipline where the percentage
of bachelor's degrees awarded to women decreased. From 1980-81 to 1993-94,
Bio/Life increased 16.3% (44.1% to 51.3%), Eng increased 44.7% (10.3% to 14.9%),
Math increased 10.0% (42.1% to 46.3%), and Phy increased 36.6% (24.6% to 33.6%),
but CS decreased 12.6% (32.5% to 28.4%). From 1983-84 to 1993-94, CS decreased
23.5%.
In summary, even though more women are awarded B.A./B.S. degrees, and even
though the percentages of B.A./B.S. degrees awarded to women in disciplines
similar to CS increased, the percentage of B.A./B.S. degrees awarded in CS to
women decreased.
The College of Engineering Effect
We now consider the relationship between the percentage of degrees awarded to
women by a CS department, and the college the CS department is within. We find
that CS departments in engineering colleges graduate proportionately fewer women
on average than CS departments in non-engineering colleges.
We derived the results in the following manner. The National Center for
Education Statistics provided a list of the number of degrees awarded in CS for
two academic years: 1991-92 and 1992-93. This list was itemized by gender,
institution, and degree. A CS department within a university was classified in
either an engineering college (CoE) or a non-engineering college (which we
denote as A&S), based on the description of the university within the 1993
Peterson's Guide to Graduate Programs in Engineering and Applied Sciences. (Only
universities that offer graduate degrees in CS were considered, since most
universities without a CS graduate program are within A&S. See [3] for more
details.)
Table 3. Data classified in this study
B.A./B.S.
M.S.
Ph.D.
Academic
Degrees
Degrees
Degrees
PAGE
8
Communications of the ACM October, 1997
Year
Classified
Classified
Classified
1991-92
11,561 (47.1%)
7,139 (74.9%)
671 (86.9%)
from 263 depts.
from 243 depts.
from 86 depts.
1992-93
11,591 (47.8%)
7,618 (75.0%)
691 (85.8%)
from 260 depts.
from 241 depts.
from 94 depts.
Table 4. The College of Engineering effect
Academic
B.A./B.S.
%
M.S.
oto
Ph.D.
%
Year/College
Degrees
Women
Degrees
Women
Degrees
Women
1991-92/CoE
3,633
22.5
2,613
23.6
360
11.7
1991-92/A&S
7,928
28.3
4,526
29.2
311
12.5
1992-93/CoE
3,710
22.8
3,082
23.4
351
12.2
1992-93/A&S
7,881
26.8
4,536
28.2
340
13.2
Although we were not able to classify every department, and although we only
considered B.A./B.S. degrees from departments that offer M.S. or Ph.D. degrees,
we were able to classify a large number of the CS degrees awarded in 1991-92 and
1992-93 into either CoE or A&S. For example, we were able to classify 47.1% of
all B.A./B.S. degrees awarded in CS in 1991-92 (11,561 of 24,557). These 11,561
degrees were awarded from 263 CS departments. (See Table 3 for further details
on the data classified in this study. Note that we only considered degrees
awarded in CS; we did not include degrees awarded in computer engineering. (The
percentage of degrees in computer engineering awarded to women is dramatically
lower than the percentage of degrees awarded in CS to women. For example, only
11.7% of the B.A./B.S. degrees awarded in computer engineering went to women in
1992-93.)
The results are displayed in Table 4. The table contains the number of
degrees classified into either CoE or A&S at the B.A./B.S., M.S., and Ph.D.
levels, and the percentage of female recipients for the two academic years
analyzed. At both the B.A./B.S. and M.S. levels, if a CS department moves from
A&S to CoE, the percentage of degrees awarded to women decreases by
approximately 18%-26%. At the Ph.D. level, the decrease is less pronounced; if
PAGE
9
Communications of the ACM October, 1997
a CS department moves from A&S to CoE, the percentage of Ph.D. degrees awarded
to women decreases by approximately 7%-8%.
The results shown in Table 4 suggest that CS departments in engineering
colleges, on average, graduate proportionally fewer women than CS departments in
non-engineering colleges. We performed statistical analysis on the percentage of
women graduates for the 1991-1992 academic year. We found the difference between
the percentage of B.A./B.S. degrees awarded to women by CS departments in
engineering colleges and the percentage of B.A./B.S. degrees awarded to women by
CS departments in non-engineering colleges was statistically significant with
the traditional cutoff of ALPHA = 0.01. The difference for bachelor's degrees
was significant both on the raw percentage data and when the percentages were
transformed using the arcs in transformation [9]. The difference in the M.S.
degrees awarded was significant at ALPHA = 0.2. The statistical analysis
strongly suggests that the proportion of females graduating with B.A./B.S.
degrees is significantly lower when a CS department is within an engineering
college. (In other words, it is highly unlikely the observed difference is a
random event.) The statistics do not allow a similar confidence in the
significance of the M.S. data.
Table 5. Future predictions of B.A./B.S. degrees awarded in all
disciplines: 1994-95 to 2006-07
Academic
B.A./B.S.
%
Year
Degrees
Women
1994-95
1,181,000
54.9
1995-96
1,186,000
55.2
1996-97
1,183,000
55.4
1997-98
1,169,000
56.5
1998-99
1,140,000
56.1
1999-00
1,138,000
56.0
2000-01
1,151,000
56.2
2001-02
1,169,000
56.5
2002-03
1,191,000
56.7
2003-04
1,216,000
57.0
2004-05
1,237,000
57.6
PAGE
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Communications of the ACM October, 1997
2005-06
1,253,000
57.8
2006-07
1,268,000
58.0
Over the last decade, we are aware universities that have moved their from a
non-engineering college to college (for example, Pennsylvania State University
and University of Washington). If CS departments continue to move to engineering
colleges, we may continue to see a decrease in the percentage of B.A./B.S.
degrees awarded in CS to women. There are, however, other factors that may
affect the percentage of B.A./B.S. degrees awarded in CS to women as well.
Future Predictions: 1994-95 through 2006-07
The computer industry is growing rapidly. There is a critical shortage of
computer scientists in today's job market - nearly 190,000 unfilled information
technology positions, not counting small business, government, and nonprofit
employers, exist in the U.S. alone [2]. Furthermore, in the year 2005, it is
predicted the number of computer professionals employed as computer scientists
and system analysts will be almost double what the numbers were in 1994 [6]. In
1994, there were more than 149,000 and 482,000 computer scientists and system
analysts, respectively, in the work force. In 2005, it is predicted there will
be more than 282,000 and 927,000 computer scientists and system analysts,
respectively, in the work force. As Table 1 shows, we have only been graduating
approximately 35,000 students with degrees in CS each year. Thus, it is critical
the number of B.A./B.S. degrees awarded in CS over the next decade increases
instead of continuing on its current decreasing trend. Fortunately, there is
positive evidence a dramatic increase will occur in the near future.
Table 5 lists the projected total number of B.A./B.S. degrees awarded in all
disciplines over the next decade, and the projected percentage of the recipients
that will be women [8]. The National Center for Education Statistics predict the
number of B.A./B.S. degrees awarded at the turn of the century will be slightly
fewer than the number currently awarded. However, the number of B.A./B.S.
degrees awarded a decade from now will overcome this turn of the century
decrease, as well as significantly that is currently being awarded. Furthermore,
while the number of B.A./B.S. degrees awarded will fluctuate over the next
decade, the percentage of B.A./B.S. degrees awarded to women will continue on
its upward trend.
Although the total number of degrees awarded at the B.A./B.S. level is
expected to decrease over the next five years, we should see a dramatic
increase, not a further decrease, in the number of B.A./B.S. degrees awarded in
CS. According to the 1996 CRA Taulbee Survey, the number of B.A./B.S. degrees
awarded in CS should increase in the near future, as the number of new bachelor
students enrolled in computer science Ph.D-granting departments increased 40% in
fall 1996 [1]. Since the number of B.A./B.S. degrees awarded in CS by
.D-granting departments should dramatically increase in the near future, we
expect to see a corresponding increase in the number of B.A./B.S. degrees
awarded in CS by non-Ph.D-granting departments.
However, one question remains: How will the increase in the number of
B.A./B.S. degrees awarded in CS affect the percentage of women recipients? As
listed in Table 1, the decrease in the number of B.A./B.S. degrees awarded in
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Communications of the ACM October, 1997
CS over the last decade was at a faster pace for women than for men. Will the
increase in the number of B.A./B.S. degrees awarded in CS occur at a faster pace
for women? Or will the proportion of women continue to lag behind their male
colleagues? The 1996 CRA Taulbee Survey does not classify the 40% increase of
bachelor students in CS by gender [1], SO we can only speculate on what the
outcome will be.
First, we consider why there is such an increase in the number of new
bachelor students in CS. The 1996 CRA Taulbee Survey suggests the marketplace
and the Web contributed to this increase [1]; the job opportunities in CS are
becoming well-known, and the Web has brought more attention to our discipline
than anything in the past.
Second, let us speculate on how the Web will affect the percentage of
B.A./B.S. degrees awarded in CS to women. The seventh study of Web users at the
Graphic, Visualization, & Usability Center (GVU) at Georgia Institute of
Technology states that the core demographics of Web users are stabilizing [5].
In other words, the rate of change in the demographics is much slower than in
previous years; for example, the percentage of female respondents to the seventh
survey is almost exactly the same as the percentage of female respondents to the
survey the previous year. In the seventh survey, with almost 20,000 unique
participants, 31.3% of the responses were from females. While other available
Web surveys claim a higher proportion of female respondents, we find the GVU
survey is appropriate in our speculation. The GVU survey claims that, by the
nature of their sampling method, the respondents represent active Web users. If
the Web has affected the increase in new students enrolled at the bachelor's
level, we believe it is the active users that are contributing to this effect.
The percentage of B.A./B.S. degrees awarded in CS to women in 1993-94 was
28.4%. Since the female ratio of active Web users is slightly higher (31.3%
versus 28.4%), we may see a slight increase in the percentage of degrees awarded
in CS to women in the near future. This slight increase, however, is much lower
than the 37.1% we enjoyed in 1983-84.
Community Response
Why has the number of B.A./B.S. degrees awarded in CS decreased since 19857
Why is the decrease occurring at a faster pace for women than men? While the
number of B.A./B.S. degrees awarded in CS in 1993-94 is almost equivalent to the
number of B.A./B.S. degrees awarded in CS in 1982-83 (24,200 versus 24,510), why
is the percentage of degrees awarded to women dramatically smaller today (28.4%
versus 36.38)? The percentage of B.A./B.S. degrees awarded to women in all
disciplines increased from 1980-81 to 1993-94; the percentages of B.A./B.S.
degrees awarded to women in disciplines similar to CS increased over the same
time period. Why has the percentage of B.A./B.S. degrees awarded to women in CS
decreased? Why is the percentage of B.A./B.S., M.S., and Ph.D. degrees awarded
to women by CS departments in engineering colleges smaller than the
corresponding percentages in non-engineering colleges? Will the percentage of
degrees awarded in CS to women continue to lag behind, as we speculate they
will, in the next decade? And, most importantly, what can we, as a community, do
to improve the situation?
In a paper on women in science and engineering, John White, Dean of
Engineering at Georgia Institute of Technology, said, "If we want a different
outcome, we're going to have to do things differently. We're making too little
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Communications of the ACM October, 1997
progress doing more of the same thing. The time for evolution is passed; it's
time for revolution" [11]. White requests a revolution to improve on the small
amount of progress in attracting and retaining more women in science and
engineering over the last decade. Instead of progress, however, we have seen a
deterioration in CS. In order to eventually make progress, computer scientists
and educators seem to need dramatic change in direction. We hope the CS
community will become involved in exploring the options and steering those
changes. The ACM Committee on Women in Computing (ACM-W) (4) has established a
web site <http://www.acm.org/women> that includes data, references, and some of
the ideas suggested for improving the current situation. There is also an
interactive survey available at the web site.
We urge the CS community to consider the posed questions and respond to the
survey. We will compile the responses of the community and present the results,
including strategies proposed for attracting and retaining women in CS, in a
future issue of Communications. If we work together, perhaps we can identify and
implement the changes that are necessary to reverse the alarming decline of
women's participation in CS.
1 The number of degrees awarded for the academic years 1994-95 and beyond are
not yet available from the National Center for Education Statistics at the U.S.
Department of Education.
2 Faculty members have a responsibility to disseminate information about the
job market to their students, thus allowing students to make informed decisions.
3 The two most recent CRA Taulbee surveys cite the unemployment rate of new
Ph. D. graduates at 1.7% in 1995 and 0.8% in 1996 [1]. Some claim the
unemployment rate of the Taulbee surveys may be misleading [4]; for example, the
1995 and 1996 surveys do not know what 18.5% and 15.2%, respectively, of the
Ph. D. graduates are doing. The unemployment rate from [6], however, is based on
a report from the Survey of Doctorate Recipients conducted by the National
Science Foundation. Since the two unemployment rates are comparable, we believe
the rate is sound.
4 The mission of ACM-W is to engage in activities that aim to increase the
representation of women in computing.
REFERENCES
1. Andrews, G. CRA Taulbee surveys. Computing Research News, March 1994-97.
2. Arnheim, L. IT Companies heavily courting CS grads. Computing Research
News 9, 3. (May 1997).
3. Camp, T. CS programs in engineering colleges = fewer females. J. Women and
Minorities in Sci. Eng. To appear.
4. Chandra, A.K., Patterson, D.A., Traub, J., and Young, P. Do we produce too
many Ph.D.s? Computing Research News 6, 3. (May 1994).
5. Georgia Institute of Technology. GVU's 7th WWW User Survey. Graphic,
Visualization, & Usability Center (April 1997).
ttp://www.gvu.gatech.edu/usersurveys/survey-1997-04/
PAGE 13
Communications of the ACM October, 1997
6. Keaton, J. and Hamilton, S. Employment 2005: Boom or bust for computer
professionals? IEEE Comput. 29, 5 (May 1996), pp. 87-98.
7. National Center for Education Statistics. Digest of Education Statistics.
U.S. Department of Education, Washington, D.C., (Nov. 1996).
8. National Center for Education Statistics. Projections of Education
Statistics to 2007. U.S. Department of Education, (June 1997)
http://www.ed.gov/NCES/pubs/pj/index.html
9. Steel, R., and Torrie, J. Principles and Procedures of Statistics: A
Biometrical Approach (2nd Ed). McGraw-Hill, New York, 1980.
10. Walker, E., and Rodger, S. PipeLINK: Connecting women and girls in the
computer science pipeline. In Proceedings of the National Education Computing
Conference. (1996), pp. 378-384.
11. White, J.A. Women in engineering and science: Does anyone care? In
Proceedings of Bridging the Gender Gap in Engineering and Science: The Challenge
of Institutional Transformation (1995) pp. 41-48.
TRACY CAMP ([email protected]) is an assistant professor in the Computer Science
Department at The University of Alabama. She is a member of ACM-W.
GRAPHIC: Table; Graph; Illustration
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
IAC-CREATE-DATE: February 11, 1998
LOAD-DATE: February 12, 1998
PAGE
14
LEVEL 1 - 79 OF 86 STORIES
Copyright 1997 Information Access Company,
a Thomson Corporation Company;
ASAP
Copyright 1997 American School Health Association
Journal of School Health
October, 1997
SECTION: No. 8, Vol. 67; Pg. 348; ISSN: 0022-4391
IAC-ACC-NO: 20176479
LENGTH: 6090 words
HEADLINE: National assessment of early elementary teachers' perceived
self-efficacy for teaching tobacco prevention based on the CDC guidelines;
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
BYLINE: Perry-Casler, Suzanne M.; Price, James H.; Telljohann, Susan K.;
Chesney, Barbara K.
AUTHOR-ABSTRACT:
A national random sample of 505 early elementary school teachers completed a
47-item survey to determine their perceived self-efficacy for teaching tobacco
prevention education based on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
guidelines for grades K-3, their training status on tobacco prevention, and
their level of teaching about tobacco prevention. Results indicated most of the
teachers were female, White, held a bachelor's or master's degree, never smoked,
and had not received formal tobacco prevention training. The teachers' scores
were high for efficacy expectations, and for outcome expectations. Conversely,
for outcome value, teachers ranked tobacco prevention fifth out of six health
topics, as the most important health topic to teach elementary students. Also,
teachers trained in four tobacco areas or more had statistically significantly
higher scores for efficacy expectations than those trained in three or fewer
areas. Statistically significant positive associations were also found between
years of teaching tobacco prevention and efficacy and outcome expectation
scores, and between the amount of time that tobacco prevention was taught during
the past school year and outcome value.
BODY:
A compelling need exists in the United States to effectively implement
school-based health programs on tobacco prevention. [1] Tobacco use is documented
as the most preventable cause of illness and death in the United States [2,3] and
a major public health problem among youth in the United States. [4] Adverse
effects of smoking on the health of children and adolescents who smoke include a
reduction in lung growth, lung function, and physical fitness. Adverse effects
for smokeless tobacco use include periodontal disease and lesions in the oral
soft tissue. [4]
The health status of future generations must be protected. To achieve this
public health goal, measures should be taken to empower children and adolescents
to abstain from tobacco use and help those who use tobacco to stop. [1] Data
indicate that the onset, regular use, and dependence on tobacco products
(nicotine addiction) most often begins between 10 and 18 years of age. [5] Also,
current estimates show that more than 3,000 children and adolescents begin
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Journal of School Health October, 1997
smoking each day, [1] and approximately 2.1 million children 12 through 17 years
of age are smokers. [6]
A variety of school-based tobacco prevention programs have been implemented
to reduce tobacco use among youth. However, several programs have shown only
modest effects in achieving this goal. [7-9] Moreover, a higher prevalence of
current smoking has been reported among high school students in 1995 than in
1993 and 1991. [10] As a result, recommendations have been made that tobacco
prevention education should be administered before the prime age at which
tobacco initiation occurs (12 to 14 years), [11] before initiation rates begin to
increase rapidly (soon after 10 years of age), [12] and before grade six, when
tobacco prevention programs focus on pre-smoking onset issues. [7]
The aforementioned findings prompted the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention (CDC) to recommend that tobacco prevention education programs be
appropriately designed and implemented in grades K-12. [1] In response to the
recommendations, and relative to the present study, the CDC developed
instructional concepts for school health programs to implement in an effort to
prevent tobacco use and addiction among children in grades K-3 (Table 1) [1]
Relative to the implementation process and the present study, consideration must
also be given to factors which can positively affect die implementation of
tobacco prevention programs, such as the training teachers receive on tobacco
prevention, [13, 14] their beliefs that they can effectively teach tobacco
prevention curricula, and their beliefs that tobacco prevention is important for
their students. [15]
A comprehensive review of the literature failed to reveal any assessments of
early elementary teachers' perceived self-efficacy for teaching tobacco
prevention education, and whether self-efficacy for teaching about tobacco
prevention was related to formal training status for tobacco prevention, or
experience in teaching tobacco prevention education. Thus, this study employed
Bandura's self-efficacy model [16] to investigate early elementary teachers'
perceived self-efficacy for teaching tobacco prevention education based on the
CDC instructional concepts for tobacco prevention (K-3) (Table 1). Bandura's
self-efficacy model is comprised of the following three components [16]: efficacy
expectations, which refer to one's belief regarding his/her ability to perform a
certain behavior needed to produce a desired outcome; outcome expectations,
which measures one's belief that performing a certain behavior will result in a
specific outcome; and outcome value, which denotes the degree of importance one
ascribes to the outcome. [16]
More specifically, this study answered the following questions: What is the
level of early elementary teachers' perceived confidence in their ability
(efficacy expectation) to effectively teach early elementary students the CDC
concepts for tobacco Prevention education? What is the level of early elementary
teachers' belief that the CDC concepts for tobacco prevention education, when
effectively taught, will have a positive impact on their students (outcome
expectations) ? What is the level of early elementary teachers' perceived
importance of tobacco prevention education (outcome value) ? What is the training
status of early elementary teachers for tobacco prevention education? If
teachers were trained, what are the areas of tobacco prevention in which they
received training? What impact will experience in teaching tobacco prevention
education and training in tobacco prevention education have on the teachers'
efficacy expectation, outcome expectation, and outcome value scores?
PAGE
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Journal of School Health October, 1997
METHODS
Participants
Based on the coterminous 48 states, a national random sample of 300 second
grade teachers and 300 third grade teachers was selected. A data base list of
each state's school districts was obtained. [17] From each state's list, a
systematically selected random sample of seven school districts was identified.
Two elementary schools were systematically and randomly identified from each of
the seven school districts, resulting in a total of 672 elementary schools. Out
of this total, a simple random sample of 300 teachers was selected from the 336
schools which requested the attention of a second grade teacher and mailed a
survey. Likewise, a simple random sample of 300 teachers was selected from the
remaining 336 schools which requested the attention of a third grade teacher and
mailed a survey. In the event that a survey was returned because the school was
closed, another school was randomly selected from the backup list comprised of
the remaining 72 schools.
Instrument Development
A 47-item survey instrument was developed for the study. The survey items
were closed-format design. The first section consisted of two outcome value
items and five background items. For outcome value, the teachers were requested
to rank, from 1 = the highest to 6 = the lowest, six categorical health
topics [18] according to their perceived importance regarding curriculum
development for elementary students, and for reducing a person's chance of dying
prematurely of an illness. The total score for outcome value was calculated by
adding the numbers from the two items. The possible range of scores for outcome
value was 2-12. The second section of the survey contained 15 efficacy
expectation items. The third section consisted of 15 outcome expectation items.
A Likert-type unipolar response format was used for the second and third
sections of the survey. The possible range of scores for the second and third
sections was 0-75. The final section of the survey contained seven demographic
items.
Content and face validity were established by a national panel of
authorities in the area of school-based tobacco prevention education and/or the
self-efficacy model. Authorities consisted of researchers affiliated with
universities, the CDC, and a research and social marketing firm. Notable
suggestions regarding format and content of the instrument were used to produce
the final instrument. A pilot study with a convenience sample of 36 early
elementary teachers indicated that no further changes were required.
Construct validity was determined through principal axis factoring using
varimax rotation. [19] The eigenvalues of the factor scree plot indicated that
the instrument consisted of three distinct factors. The minimum factor loading
for the agreement of correlation of each item with the total pattern of
responses was set at the absolute value of .33, which was found to be within the
range presented by various researchers who have reported factor analysis
(.30-.40). [20-23] Further, the items for the three a priori factors correlated
most highly with their intended factors.
Stability reliability was conducted by distributing the instrument to 23
early elementary teachers approximately one week following the first
distribution. Pearson correlation coefficients found that stability
PAGE
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Journal of School Health October, 1997
reliability was .90 for efficacy expectation, and .46 for outcome expectation.
Spearman's rho indicated a stability reliability of .67 for outcome value.
Calculating Cronbach alphas on the responses from the total sample revealed that
internal reliability for efficacy and outcome expectations was .92 and .95,
respectively.
Procedures
A two-wave mailing procedure was used during the spring of 1996. Initially,
each teacher was mailed a copy of the survey, a hand-signed cover letter
describing the purpose of the study, [24] $ 1 gratuity, [25] and a prestamped
preaddressed return envelope. [26] Approximately two weeks following the first
mailing, the teachers received a handsigned cover letter which thanked those who
responded and encouraged those who did not to respond. Another copy of the
survey and a prestamped, preaddressed return envelope were also included in the
second mailing. To ensure anonymity and confidentiality, the surveys were not
coded. The SPSS statistical software package was used for all data analyses. [27]
A level of significance was determined a priori at .05 to reduce the likelihood
of making a Type I error.
Table 1 CDC Concepts for School-based Health Programs to Prevent Tobacco Use
and Addiction Among Early Elementary Students
Knowledge -- Students will learn that:
*
A drug is a chemical that changes how the body works. * All forms of
tobacco contain a drug called nicotine. * Tobacco use includes cigarettes and
smokeless tobacco. * Tobacco use is harmful to health. * Stopping tobacco use
has short-term and long-term benefits. * Many persons who use tobacco have
trouble stopping. * Tobacco smoke in the air is dangerous to anyone who breathes
it. * Many fires are caused by persons who smoke. * Some advertisements try to
persuade persons to use tobacco. * Most young persons and adults do not use
tobacco. * Persons who choose to use tobacco are not bad persons.
Attitudes -- Students will demonstrate that:
*
A personal commitment not to use tobacco. * Pride about choosing not to use
tobacco.
Skills -- Students will be able to:
*
Communicate knowledge and personal attitudes about tobacco use. * Encourage
other persons not to use tobacco.
Note. From Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Guidelines for school
health programs to prevent tobacco use and addiction. MMWR. 1994; 43 (RR-2) : 10-11.
RESULTS
Out of the 600 surveys mailed to early elementary teachers, 531 were
returned, which produced an 89% return rate. However, 22 teachers returned
incomplete surveys, and four stated they were not second or third grade
teachers. Thus, a total of 505 surveys were used for the final analyses.
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Journal of School Health October, 1997
Demographic data of the teachers indicated that most teachers were female
(92%), White (89%), held a bachelor's (51%) or master's (41%) degrees, and never
smoked (73%) Mean age was 43.6 years (SD = 9.27). Mean number of years teaching
was 16.8 (SD = 8.8). Forty-three percent taught second grade, 44% taught third
grade, and 13% taught more than one grade. Approximately two-thirds of the
teachers taught in rural communities. Analysis of the racial composition of the
student bodies of the schools found the following data: White (M = 78.5, SD =
27.2), African-American (M = 13.6, SD = 24.0), and Hispanic (M = 6.0, SD =
14.9).
Data for tobacco prevention background items are illustrated in Table 2. A
little over two-thirds of teachers (68%) reported teaching tobacco prevention
three years out of the past three years. A wide range of responses (0-1,920
minutes) emerged for die best estimate of total time teachers reported teaching
about tobacco prevention during the past school year (M = 150.0 minutes, SD =
196.3 minutes). The most frequently reported measure of total time teaching
about tobacco prevention was 120 minutes. Further, one of five (20%) reported
they received formal training on tobacco prevention, of which 20% received
training on the consequences of tobacco use.
Table 2 Tobacco Prevention Background Data for Respondents
Item
n
or
M
SD
N
How many years out of the past three
years taught about tobacco prevention
0 years
72
14
2.30
1.11
502
1 Year
43
9
2 Years
45
9
3 Years
342
68
Total time (minutes) taught tobacco
prevention during last school year
150
196.27
478
Received formal training
Yes
102
20
No
396
80
498
PAGE
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Journal of School Health October, 1997
Areas of training received (*)
Consequences
99
20
Social influences
81
16
Prevalence of tobacco use
61
12
Communication skills
92
18
Implement program
61
12
Parents/families
34
7
Evaluate program
21
4
Other
6
1
498
Location of school
Inner City
15
3
Urban
32
7
Suburban
134
27
Rural
310
63
491
Racial composition of schools
White
78.48
27.17
484
African-American
13.64
24.05
463
Hispanic
6.05
14.93
461
Other
3.52
11.41
458
Note. (*) Multiple responses were an option. As a result, the item numbers do
not total 498, and the item percentages do not total 100%.
The efficacy expectation subscale of the instrument was comprised of 15
items, which were summed to create a total score (Table 3). For the knowledge
items, most teachers were highly confident in their ability to effectively teach
their students all but one CDC concept: that most young persons and adults do
not use tobacco. In comparison, approximately two-thirds of teachers felt highly
confident in their ability to effectively teach their students the attitudes and
skills items. To better understand the dispersion of the scores, the potential
range was divided to represent three groups: low (0-24), medium (25-50), and
PAGE
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Journal of School Health October, 1997
high (51-75) perceived efficacy expectations. Eighty-five percent of teachers
were found to score in the high group, with 14% in the medium group. Overall,
the mean score for efficacy expectations was very high: 61.5 (SD = 10.7).
Close to three-fourths of teachers felt highly confident regarding their
overall ability to effectively teach the CDC concepts on tobacco prevention. A
Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient revealed a high positive
statistically significant relationship between the teachers' efficacy
expectation total scores and their overall confidence scores (r = .83, p [is
less than] .001).
The outcome expectation subscale was comprised of 15 items which were summed
to create a total score (Table 4). For knowledge based items, at least
three-fourths or more of teachers reported it was highly likely that, if the CDC
concepts were taught effectively, students would be more knowledgeable regarding
all concepts except the one that most young persons and adults do not use
tobacco. For attitude items, approximately three-fourths of teachers believed it
was highly likely that students would be better able to make a personal
commitment and show pride about choosing not to use tobacco if the CDC concepts
were effectively taught. Likewise, close to three-fourths of teachers believed
it was highly likely that students would be better able to communicate about
tobacco smoke and encourage other persons not to use tobacco if the CDC concepts
were effectively taught.
Ninety percent of teachers expressed that, overall, it was highly likely
that students would be more knowledgeable about tobacco if the CDC concepts were
taught effectively, while 72% of teachers expressed that overall students would
be more willing not to use tobacco. As with the efficacy expectation subscale,
the range of scores was divided into three groups: low, medium, and high.
Eighty-six percent were found to be in the high scoring group (51-75), with 13%
in the medium group (25-50). Similar to the efficacy expectation subscale, the
mean score for outcome expectation was very high: 62.4 (SD = 10.7). Also, a
moderate positive statistically significant relationship appeared
Suzanne M. Perry-Casler, PhD, Project Coordinator, The James and Jennifer
Harrell Center for the Society of Domestic Violance, College of Public Health,
University of South Florida, Tampa, FL 33612-3807; James H. Price, PhD, MPH,
Professor of Health Education; Susan K. Telljohann, HSD, CHES, Associate
Professor of Health Education, Dept. of Health Promotion; Barbara K. Chesney,
PhD, MPH, Associate Professor of Sociology, Dept. of Sociology, Anthropology and
Social Work, University of Toledo, Toledo, OH 43606. This article was submitted
February 14, 1996, and accepted for publication April 28, 1997. between the
teachers' outcome expectation total score and their overall score on students'
knowledge about tobacco and students' willingness to not use tobacco (r=.71,
p[less than] .001, and r=.55, p[less than] 001, respectively).
Teachers were also queried about the value they place on tobacco prevention
as it relates to two groups: early elementary students and people in general
(Table 5). Teachers were requested to rank the six health topics from 1=the
highest to 6=the lowest for each group. Tobacco use was ranked fifth as the most
important health topic to include in a curriculum on healthy lifestyles for
early elementary students, and it was ranked fourth as the most important topic
for people to reduce their chances of dying prematurely of an illness.
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Journal of School Health October, 1997
Analysis of variance (ANOVA) tests were computed to examine the effects of
various independent variables on the teachers' efficacy expectation and outcome
expectation scores. Two-way ANOVAs revealed that neither efficacy expectation or
outcome expectation scores differed significantly based on gender of the
teachers or grades they taught. In comparison, a two-way ANOVA computed for
training status and number of areas in which they were trained found that the
efficacy expectation scores were statistically significantly different between
teachers who were trained in four or more areas of tobacco prevention and those
who were trained in three areas or fewer (F=3.8, df=2, p=.03). One-way ANOVAs
found that neither efficacy expectation or outcome expectation scores differed
significantly based on educational level, type of community in which the
teachers' schools were located, or smoking status.
The effect of smoking status on the aforementioned scores was further
analyzed by randomly selecting 19 teachers from the total group of never smokers
(N=369), and 19 from the total group of former smokers (N= 115). This approach
provided a match for the 19 teachers who reported that they were current
smokers. One-way ANOVAs showed no significant differences in either the efficacy
expectation scores or the outcome expectation scores based on smoking status.
Pearson correlation coefficients found a statistically significant
correlation between efficacy expectation scores and number of years the teachers
taught tobacco prevention (r=.25, p[less than] 001) and between outcome
expectation scores and number of years teachers taught tobacco prevention
(r=.15, p[less than] .01). For both analyses, teachers who taught tobacco
prevention four or more years had statistically significant higher efficacy and
outcome expectation scores than teachers who taught tobacco prevention for three
or fewer years. While statistically significant, the correlation scores were
very modest in practical terms. In contrast, no statistically significant
correlations were observed between years of teaching experience, racial
composition of the schools, and either the efficacy or outcome expectation
scores.
With respect to outcome value scores, Mann-Whitney U tests revealed no
statistically significant differences between outcome value scores based on
gender of the teachers, formal training received, and the number of areas in
which they received formal training. Likewise, Kruskal-Wallis one-way analysis
of variance tests revealed no statistically significant differences between
outcome value scores based on educational level, grades taught, type of
community in which the schools were, how many years out of the past three years
teachers taught tobacco prevention, and smoking status of the teacher. Spearman
rho correlations were not statistically significant for relationships between
outcome value scores and age, years of teaching experience, and racial
composition of the school. Conversely, a statistically significant positive
association was observed between outcome value scores and best estimate of total
time tobocco prevention was taught during the past school year ([Pi]=.19, p[less
than] 001). The more minutes teachers reported teaching tobacco prevention
during the past school year, the higher the outcome value score. Again, this was
a very modest relationship.
DISCUSSION
This national study employed Bandura's self-efficacy model [6] to assess
second and third grade teachers' perceived self-efficacy for teaching tobacco
prevention education based on the CDC guidelines for K-3 (Table 1). In
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Journal of School Health October, 1997
addition, the effects the teachers' experience and training status with regard
to teaching tobacco prevention education would have on the teachers' efficacy
expectation, outcome expectation, and outcome value scores were analyzed.
Data indicated that most teachers appeared to have high efficacy
expectations with respect to their ability to effectively teach the CDC's K-3
instructional concepts on tobacco prevention. A major function of the
self-efficacy model is to identify strengths and weaknesses of individuals'
efficacy expectations regarding a specific behavior. [16] Thus, to better
understand what this finding represents, more in-depth analyses of the
knowledge, attitude, and skills items of the efficacy expectation subscale were
conducted (Table 3) The highest percentages of teachers who comprised the
highly confident group were found to cluster within the knowledge items. This
was the area where their strength appeared to be the greatest. In comparison, a
lower percentage of teachers reported that they felt highly confident in their
ability to teach their students the CDC attitude and skills items for tobacco
prevention.
[TABULAR DATA NOT REPRODUCIBLE]
Based on the self-efficacy theory, efficacy expectations can vary according
to the individuals' perceived level of difficulty of the task. [16] One reason
that a lower percentage of teachers felt highly confident regarding the attitude
and skills items, which consist of intrapersonal and interpersonal communication
skills, may be that they viewed these tasks as more difficult to teach than the
knowledge items. This is understandable since only 18% of teachers reported
receiving formal training in communication skills for tobacco prevention.
Most teachers were found to also have high perceived outcome expectations
for teaching the CDC tobacco prevention concepts effectively. In-depth analyses
of the knowledge, attitudes, and skills components of the outcome expectation
subscale provided results (Table 4) which parallel those from the efficacy
expectation subscale. Compared to the knowledge items, a lower percentage of
teachers reported it was highly likely that, when taught effectively, the CDC
instructional concepts would have a positive impact on students' attitudes
regarding tobacco use, and their skills to communicate effectively on tobacco
use. In terms of this finding, the teachers may have been less sure about the
outcome as a result of their lower efficacy expectations for teaching
communication skills.
A major concern regarding die aforementioned efficacy and outcome
expectation findings is that the traditional information model (knowledge based)
for teaching tobacco prevention education has proven to be the least successful
in producing a positive change in students' attitudes and behavior regarding
tobacco use [29-31]; whereas the social influence model (modeling skills to
resist pressure to use tobacco and making a public commitment not to smoke) has
proven to be the most successful in producing a positive change in students'
attitudes and behavior for tobacco use. [29-31] Thus, it is suggested that
intense in-service training in the social influence model may increase teacher
self-efficacy in these areas, which in turn might facilitate a reduction in
immediate and long-term tobacco use among youth.
One of the key issues regarding the social norms and the acceptability of
tobacco, use is that youth tend to overestimate the relevance of tobacco use
among their peers and adults. [28] Thus, teaching students the concept of a
PAGE
23
Journal of School Health October, 1997
tobacco free norm is essential to reduce their chances of using tobacco. [28] A
perplexing issue here is that the lowest percentage of teachers in the highly
confident group for efficacy expectation (48%) and in the highly likely group
for outcome expectations (68%) was found regarding the prevalence of tobacco
use; that most young persons and adults do not use tobacco. This deficiency,
which may indicate that the teachers are uncertain about or overestimate the
prevalence of tobacco use, could hinder the success of tobacco prevention
programs. This finding, with the fact that only 12% of teachers who have
received formal training on tobacco prevention received training on the
prevalence of tobacco use, reflects a need to emphasize the prevalence of
tobacco use when designing in-service programs for tobacco prevention education.
The occurrence of a specific behavior also depends on the degree to which
the outcome of that behavior is valued. [12] Analyses for outcome value indicated
that the teachers did not have a clear understanding that tobacco use is the
most preventable cause of mortality and morbidity in the United States and that
tobacco prevention education can have a positive impact on the health status of
Americans. [2, 3] The teachers ranked tobacco prevention fifth as the most
important health topic to teach elementary students, and fourth for people to
reduce their chances of dying prematurely of an illness (Table 5) One reason
why the teachers ranked tobacco prevention so low for elementary students may be
that they believed that second and third graders are at a low risk for using
tobacco. Also, the teachers may have believed that tobacco prevention is taught
during a later grade, so there was no need to address it in the second and third
grades.
[TABULAR DATA NOT REPRODUCIBLE]
According to the self-efficacy theory, past performances or experiences may
enhance individuals' perceptions of their efficacy expectations. [16] This study
supports this contention. Teachers with more experience teaching tobacco
prevention and more training in tobacco prevention had statistically
significantly higher efficacy expectations scores than teachers who had less
experience and training in tobacco prevention. Statistically significant
positive associations were also found between the teachers' outcome expectation
scores and the number of years the teachers taught tobacco prevention and
between outcome value scores and best estimate of total time tobacco prevention
was taught during the past school year.
CONCLUSION
Based on the aforementioned findings, the teachers' high scores for efficacy
and outcome expectations must be considered with caution. For example, if the
teachers were truly knowledgeable about tobacco use, they would have known that
tobacco use was the most preventable cause of death in the United States.
Moreover, effectively teaching knowledge concepts on tobacco prevention has less
of an impact on reducing tobacco use among youth than effectively teaching
attitude and skills concepts on tobacco prevention. One must also consider die
concept of "reality" when interpreting the findings. Perhaps the teachers simply
were over confident of their perceptions of their abilities (efficacy
expectations). If not adequately trained, it is plausible that the teachers may
have thought they were capable and simply did not understand the limitations of
their skills. Bandura contended that efficacy expectations are defined and
measured independent of performing a task. [16]
PAGE
24
Journal of School Health October, 1997
Moreover, high scores for efficacy and outcome expectation scales may not
indicate, as does other research, that a measure of self-efficacy predicts
performing a specific behavior. [33] If teachers are less confident in their
ability to effectively teach the CDC attitude and skill items on tobacco
prevention and perceive the outcome of teaching tobacco prevention as
questionable regarding these items, then it is plausible that they will not
properly implement tobacco prevention programs that emphasize attitude and the
social influence model components.
Preservice and in-service tobacco prevention programs should be specifically
designed and promoted for primary grade teachers. Emphasis must be placed on the
importance of tobacco prevention education from a public health perspective.
Finally, intense training must be provided in the areas of social influences and
the prevalence of tobacco use so that tobacco prevention programs that include
these skills and information can be properly implemented.
Based on the random national sampling technique used in this study, the
findings may have strong external validity for all second and third grade
teachers. However, the study's limitations must be noted. First, the data
collected were anonymous and self-reported; therefore, some teachers may have
responded in a socially desirable manner. Second, the monothematic format of the
instrument may have resulted in a response set bias by some respondents. Last, a
follow-up to this study is needed to determine whether self-reported efficacy
expectations for teaching tobacco is congruent with actual teaching behaviors.
Until this last issue is determined, findings from this study must be cautiously
considered.
References
[1.] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Guidelines for school health
programs to prevent tobacco use and addiction. MMWR. 1994; (PR-2) :1-18.
[2.] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Reducing the Health
Consequences of Smoking: 25 Years of Progress -- a Report of the Surgeon General
Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office; 1989.
[3.] American Cancer Society. Cancer Facts & Figures & Figures -- 1996. 1996.
[4.] Public Health Service. Healthy People 2000: National Health Promotion
and Disease Prevention Objectives. Washington, DC: US Government Printing
Office; 1992.
[5.] Elders MJ, Perry CL, Eriksen MP, Giovino GA. The report of the surgeon
general: preventing tobacco use among young people. Am J Public Health.
1994; 84 (4) 543-547.
[6.] American Heart Association. Heart and Stroke Facts: 1996 Statistical
Supplement. 1996.
[7.] Glynn TJ. Essential elements of school-based smoking prevention
programs. J Sch Health. 1989; (5) : 181-188.
[8.] Nutbeam D, Macaskill P. Smith C, Simpson J M, Catford J. Evaluation of
two school smoking education programs under normal classroom conditions. Brit
Med J. 1993;306:102-107.
PAGE 25
Journal of School Health October, 1997
[9.] Rooney BL, Murray DM. A meta-analysis of smoking prevention programs
after adjustment for errors in the unit of analysis. Health Educ Q.
1996;23 (1) 48-64.
[10.] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Tobacco use and usual
source of cigarettes among high school students -- United States, 1995. MMWR.
1996a;45 (20) 413-418.
[11.] Glynn TJ. Improving the health of US children: the need for early
interventions in tobacco use. Prev Med 1993;22:513-519.
[12.] Escobedo LG, Marcus S, Holtzman D, Giovino G. Sports participation, age
at smoking initiation, and the risk of smoking among US high school students.
JAMA. 1993;2 (11) 1391-1395.
[13.] Bosworth K, Sailes J. Content and teaching strategies in 10 selected
drug abuse prevention curricula. J Sch Health. 1993; (6) :247-253.
[14.] Smith DW, McCormick LK, Steckler AB, McLeroy KR. Teachers use of health
curricula: implementation of growing healthy, project smart, and the teenage
health teaching modules. J Sch Health. 1993; (8) : 349-354.
[15.] Parcel GS, Eriksen MP, Lovato CY, Gottlieb NH, Brink SG, Green LW. The
diffusion of school-based tobacco-use prevention programs: project description
and baseline data. Health Educ Res. 1989, (1) 111-124.
[16.] Bandura A. Self-efficacy: toward a unifying theory of behavioral
chance. Psychol Rev. 1977; (2) 191-215.
[17.] National Center for Education Statistics. Directory of Public
Elementary and Secondary Education Agencies 1992-1993. Office of Educational
Research and Improvement. 1994.
[18.] National Commission on the Role of the School and Community in
Improving Adolescent Health. Code Blue: Uniting for Healthier Youth. Alexandria,
Va: National Association of State Boards of Education; 1990.
[19.] Kim J, Mueller CW. Introduction to Factor Analysis. What It Is and How
to Do It. Newbury Park, Calif: Sage Publications, Inc; 1978.
[20.] Gilmer MJ, Speck BJ, Bradley C, Harrell JS, Belyea M. The Youth Health
Survey: reliability and validity of an instrument for assessing cardiovascular
health habits in adolescents. J Sch Health. 1996; (3) 106-111.
[21.] Gorsuch RL. Factor Analysis. Philadelphia, Penn: WB Saunders Co; 1974.
[22.] Smith KE. Development of the primary teacher questionnaire. J Educ Res.
1993;87 (1) 23-29.
[23.] Smith DW, Zhang JJ, Colwell B. Pro-innovation bias: the case of the
giant Texas smokescream. J Sch Health. 1996; (6) 210-213.
[24.] Dodd DK, Markwiese BJ. Survey response rate as a function of
personalized signature on cover letter. J Soc Psychol. 1987;127:97-98.
PAGE 26
Journal of School Health October, 1997
[25.] Hopkins KD, Gullickson AR. Response rates in survey research: A
meta-analysis of the effects of monetary gratuities. J Experi Educ.
1992; 61 (1) : 52-62.
[26.] Armstrong JS, Lusk EJ. Return postage in mail surveys: a meta-analysis.
Pub Opin Q. 1987;51:233-248.
[27.] Norusis MJ. SPSS for Windows: Base System User's Guide, Release 6.0.
SPSS Inc; 1993.
[28.] Institute of Medicine. Growing Up Tobacco Free. Washington, DC:
National Academy Press; 1994.
[29.] Rundall TG, Bruvold WH. A meta-analysis of school-based smoking and
alcohol use prevention programs. Health Educ Q. 1988;15 (3) : 317-334.
[30.] Bruvold WH. A meta-analysis of adolescent smoking prevention programs.
Am J Public Health. 1993;83:872-880.
[31.] Desmond S, Price J. Self-efficacy and weight control. Health Educ.
1988;19(1) : 12-18.
[32.] Gingiss PL, Gottlieb NH, Brink SG. Increasing teacher receptivity
toward use of tobacco prevention education programs. J Drug Educ.
1994;24 (2) : 163-176.
[33.] Fritz JJ, Miller-Heyl J, Kreutzer JC, MacPhee D. Fostering personal
teaching efficacy through staff development and classroom activities. J Educ
Res. 1995;88 (4) : 200-208.
GRAPHIC: Table; Illustration
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
IAC-CREATE-DATE: February 9, 1998
LOAD-DATE: February 10, 1998
PAGE
78
LEVEL 1 - 47 OF 86 STORIES
Copyright 1998 Information Access Company,
a Thomson Corporation Company;
ASAP
Copyright 1998 American School Health Association
Journal of School Health
May, 1998
SECTION: No. 5, Vol. 68; Pg. 202; ISSN: 0022-4391
IAC-ACC-NO: 20970620
LENGTH: 3158 words
HEADLINE: Tobacco use among high school students - United States, 1997.
BODY:
Tobacco use is the single leading preventable cause of death in the United
States. [1] Approximately 80% of tobacco use occurs for the first time among
youth aged [is less than] 18 years, [2] and the prevalence of cigarette smoking
among adolescents increased during the early 1990s. [3] To determine prevalence
rates of cigarette, smokeless tobacco (chewing tobacco or snuff), and cigar use
for US high school students, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
(CDC) analyzed data from the 1997 Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS). This report
summarized the results of the analysis, which indicate that the prevalence of
current cigarette smoking among US high school students increased from 27.5% in
1991 to 36.4% in 1997 and that, in 1997, 42.7% of students used cigarettes,
smokeless tobacco, or cigars during the 30 days preceding the survey.
YRBS, a component of CDC's Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System, [4]
biennially measures the prevalence of priority health-risk behaviors among youth
through representative national, state, and local surveys. The 1997 national
YRBS used a three-stage cluster sample design to obtain a representative sample
of 16,262 students in grades 9-12 in the 50 states and the District of Columbia.
The school response rate was 79.18, the student response rate was 87.2%, and the
overall response rate was 69.0%. Data were weighted to provide national
estimates, and SUDAAN [R] (Software for the Statistical Analysis of Correlated
Data) was used to calculate standard errors for determining 95% confidence
intervals. Difference between prevalence estimates were considered statistically
significant if the 95% confidence intervals did not overlap. (Use of trade names
and commercial sources is for identification only and does not imply endorsement
by CDC and the US Dept. of Health and Human Services.)
Students completed a self-administered questionnaire that included questions
about cigarette, smokeless tobacco, and cigar use. Lifetime cigarette smokers
were defined as students who had ever smoked cigarettes, even one or two puffs.
Current product use on [is greater than or equal to] 1 of the 30 days preceding
the survey. Frequent cigarette use was defined as smoking cigarettes on [is
greater than or equal to] 20 of the 30 days preceding the survey. Any current
tobacco use was defined as use of cigarettes, smokeless tobacco, or cigars on
(is greater than or equal to] 1 of the 30 days preceding the survey. Data are
presented only for non- Hispanic black, non-Hispanic white, and Hispanic
students because the numbers of students from other racial/ethnic groups were
too small for meaningful analysis.
PAGE
79
Journal of School Health May, 1998
Prevalence of Cigarette Use
The overall prevalences of lifetime, current, and frequent cigarette use
were 70.2%, 36.4%, and 16.7%, respectively (Table 1). The prevalence of lifetime
cigarette smoking was higher among Hispanic male students (76.9%) than among
white male students (70.4%). The prevalence of current cigarette smoking was
higher among white students (39.7%) than Hispanic (34.0%) and black (22.7%)
students, and Hispanic students (34.0%) were more likely to report current
cigarette smoking than black students (22.7%). Among males, the prevalence of
current cigarette smoking was higher among white students (39.6%) than black
students (28.2%). Among females, the prevalence of current cigarette smoking was
higher among white students (39.9%) than Hispanic (32.3%) and black (17.4%)
students, and Hispanic female students (32.3%) were more likely to report
current cigarette smoking than black female students (17.4%). Among black
students, males (28.2%) were more likely than females (17.4%) to report current
cigarette smoking.
Table 1 Percentage of High School Students[a] Who Used Cigarettes, Smokeless
Tobacco, or Cigars by Gender, RacelEthnicity, and Grade -- United States, Youth
Risk Behavior Survey, 1997
Cigarette Use
Lifetime [b]
Current [c]
Category
%
(95% [CI.sup.h])
%
(95% CI)
Gender
Male
70.9
(I+ or -] 1.9)
37.7
(I+ or -] 2.7)
Female
69.3
([+ or -] 2.6)
34.7
([+ or -1 2.8)
Race/Ethnicity [i]
White,
non-Hispanic
70.4
([+ or -] 2.3)
39.7
([+ or -] 2.4)
Male
70.4
([+ or -] 2.4)
39.6
([+ or -] 3.8)
PAGE
80
Journal of School Health May, 1998
Female
70.3
([+ or -] 3.3)
39.9
(I+ or -] 3.2)
Black,
non-Hispanic
68.4
(I+ or -] - 4.4)
22.7
([+ or -] 3.8)
Male
70.1
([+ or -] 4.7)
28.2
([+ or -] 5.5)
Female
66.8
([+ or -] 5.2)
17.4
(1+ or -] 3.9)
Hispanic
75.0
([+ or -1 2.7)
34.0
([+ or -] 2.7)
Male
76.9
([+ or -] 3.6)
35.5
(1+ or -] 3.6)
Female
72.7
([+ or -] 3.9)
32.3
([+ or -] 3.7)
Grade
9
67.7
([+ or -] 5.1)
33.4
(1+ or -] 5.1)
10
70.0
([+ or -] 3.9)
35.3
([+ or -] 4.1)
11
68.8
([+ or -} 3.1)
36.6
( [+ or -] 3.6)
12
73.7
(1+ or -] - 4.1)
39.6
([+ or - ] 4.9)
Total
70.2
([+ or -] - 1.9)
36.4
([+ or -] 2.3)
Cigarette Use
Current
Smokeless
Frequent [d]
Tobacco Use[e]
Category
%
(95% CI)
%
(95% CI)
PAGE 81
Journal of School Health May, 1998
Gender
Male
17.6
(I+ or -] 2.7)
15.8
(I+ or -] 3.7)
Female
15.7
([+ or -] 2.1)
1.5
(I+ or -} 0.7)
Race/Ethnicity[i]
White,
non-Hispanic
19.9
([+ or -] 2.2)
12.2
([+ or -] 2.5)
Male
19.8
([+ or -] 3.3)
20.6
([+ or -] - 4.0)
Female
20.1
([+ or -] 3.2)
1.6
([+ or - ] 0.9)
Black,
non-Hispanic
7.2
([+ or -] 1.8)
2.2
([+ or - ] 1.1)
Male
10.1
( [ + or -1 3.1)
3.2
([+ or -] 1.7)
Female
4.3
( [ + or -] 1.8)
1.3
(I+ or -) - 1.2)
Hispanic
10.9
([+ or -] 2.6)
5.1
([+ or -] - 2.3)
Male
13.2
( [ + or -] 3.7)
8.4
([+ or -] 3.3)
Female
8.1
([+ or - ) 2.7)
1.2
([+ or -] - 1.0)
Grade
PAGE 82
Journal of School Health May, 1998
9
13.1
(1+ or -] 3.8)
9.7
(1+ or -] 2.7)
10
15.0
([+ or -] 1.9)
6.8
([+ or -] 1.7)
11
18.9
(I+ or - -] 2.8)
10.0
([+ or -] - 2.5)
12
19.4
(1+ or - ] 3.1)
10.5
( [ + or -] 3.6)
Total
16.7
(I+ or -] 1.9)
9.3
([+ or -] 2.2)
Current
Any Current
Cigar Use [f]
Tobacco Use [g]
Category
%
(95% CI)
%
(95% CI)
Gender
Male
31.2
([+ or - ] 2.3)
48.2
([+ or -] 2.8)
Female
10.8
( [ + or -] 2.4)
36.0
( [+ or -] 2.8)
Race/Ethnicity [i]
White,
non-Hispanic
22.5
([+ or -] 2.6)
46.8
([+ or -] 1.9)
Male
32.5
([+ or -] 2.1)
51.5
([+ or - ) - 2.4)
Female
9.6
( [+ or -] 2.6)
40.8
([+ or -] 3.1)
Black,
non-Hispanic
19.4
([+ or -] 3.2)
29.4
([+ or -] - 3.0)
PAGE
83
Journal of School Health May, 1998
Male
28.1
([+ or -] 5.3)
37.6
([+ or -] 4.7)
Female
11.0
([+ or -] 2.9)
21.5
(I+ or -] 4.2)
Hispanic
20.3
(I+ or -] 4.4)
36.8
(I+ or -] 3.4)
Male
26.3
([+ or -] 7.0)
41.3
([+ or -] 5.0)
Female
13.0
([+ or -] 2.8)
31.4
(I+ or -] 3.8)
Grade
9
17.3
([+ or -] 2.9)
38.0
([+ or -] 5.3)
10
22.3
([+ or -] 3.4)
40.9
([+ or -] 4.1)
11
24.2
([+ or -] 2.9)
44.2
(I+ or -] 3.1)
12
23.8
([+ or -] 4.2)
47.0
([+ or -] 6.1)
Total
22.0
([+ or -] 2.1)
42.7
([+ or -] 2.3)
[a] - N = 16,262.
[b] - Ever tried cigarette smoking, even one or two puffs.
[c] - Smoked cigarettes on [is greater than or equal to] 1 of the 30 days
preceding the survey.
[d] - Smoked cigarettes on [is greater than or equal to] 20 of the 30 days
preceding the survey.
[e] - Used smokeless tobacco on [is greater than or equal to] 1 of the 30
days preceding the survey.
[f] - Smoked cigars on [is greater than or equal to] 1 of the 30 days
preceding the survey.
[g] - Smoked cigarettes, used smokeless tobacco, or smoked cigars on [is
greater than or equal to] 1 of the 30 days preceding the survey.
[h] - Confidence interval.
PAGE
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Journal of School Health May, 1998
[I] - Numbers of other racial/ethnic groups were too small for meaningful
analysis.
The prevalence of frequent cigarette smoking was higher among white students
(19.9%) than among Hispanic (10.9%) and black (7.28) students. Among males, the
prevalence of frequent cigarette smoking was higher among white students (19.8%)
than black students (10.1%). Among females, the prevalence of frequent cigarette
smoking was higher among white students (20.18) than Hispanic (8.1%) and black
(4.3%) students. Among black students, males (10.1%) were more likely than
females (4.3%) to report frequent cigarette smoking.
Trend analyses of current cigarette smoking found significantly increasing
trends overall and among all racial/ethnic subgroups (p [is less than] 0.001).
The overall prevalence of current cigarette smoking increased from 27.5% in 1991
to 36.4% in 1997. Among white students, current cigarette smoking increased from
30.9% in 1991 to 39.7% in 1997. Among black students, current cigarette smoking
increased from 12.6% in 1991 to 22.7% in 1997, Among Hispanic students, current
cigarette smoking increased from 25.3% in 1991 to 34.0% in 1997.
Prevalence of Smokeless Tobacco Use
The overall prevalence of current smokeless tobacco use was 9.3% (Table 1).
The prevalence of current smokeless tobacco use was higher among male students
(15.8%) than female students (1.5%) and among white students (12.2%) than black
(2.2%) and Hispanic (5.1%) students. White male students (20.6%) were more
likely than any other subgroup to report current smokeless tobacco use; Hispanic
male students (8.4%) were more likely than black male students (3.2%) to report
this behavior. Among Hispanic students, males (8.4%) were more likely than
females (1.2%) to report current smokeless tobacco use.
Prevalence of Cigar Use
The overall prevalence of current cigar use was 22.0% (Table 1). Male
students (31.2%) were more likely to use cigars than female students (10.8%).
This difference held within each racial/ethnic subgroup. Ninth grade students
(17.3%) were less likely than 11th grade students (24.2%) to use cigars.
Prevalence of Any Current Tobacco Use
The overall prevalence of any current tobacco use was 42.7% (Table 1). Male
students (48.2%) were more likely to report any current tobacco use than female
students (36.0%), and this difference held within each racial/ethnic subgroup.
The prevalence of any current tobacco use was higher among white students
(46.8%) than Hispanic (36.8%) and black (29.4%) students. These differences held
for both male and female students. The prevalence of any current tobacco use was
higher among Hispanic students (36.8%) than black students (29.4%) overall and
among female students (31.4% of Hispanic females and 21.5% of black females).
Editorial Note: This report is the first to include cigarette, smokeless
tobacco, and cigar use in a measure of current tobacco use and the first to
report on past-month cigar use among a nationally representative sample of high
school students. The increasing prevalence of cigarette smoking since 1991, the
high rate of smokeless tobacco and cigar use, and the high rate of any tobacco
use suggest that a major proportion of US youth already have or are at risk for
nicotine addiction [5,6] and the subsequent health problems caused by tobacco
PAGE
85
Journal of School Health May, 1998
use. [2,6]
In 1997, the prevalence of current cigarette smoking was 32% higher than in
1991; current cigarette smoking increased 80% among black students, 34% among
Hispanic students, and 28% among white students. The reasons for the large
differences in overall prevalence of current cigarette smoking and the increases
in cigarette smoking among students in all the racial/ethnic groups are unclear
and require further investigation. CDC is conducting research to help explain
these differences and the reasons for continued increases in tobacco use among
all youth.
The findings in this report are subject to at least two limitations. First,
these data apply only to youth who attend high school and, therefore, are not
representative of all persons in this age group. In 1996, only 6% of persons
aged 16-17 years were not enrolled in a high school program and had not
completed high school. [7] Second, the measure of any current tobacco use
described in this report might be an underestimate, because it does not include
measures of pipe and "roll-your-own" tobacco smoking.
In 1994, CDC recommended that school-based tobacco-use prevention programs
begin in elementary school and continue through 12th grade, with intensive
instruction for students in grades six through eight (ie, up to 10
smoking-focused sessions each year) [8] Data from the 1994 School Health
Policies and Programs Study indicated that only 55% of middle/junior high and
47% of senior high school health education teachers taught tobacco-use
prevention as a major topic. [9] Of these teachers, 43% of middle/junior high and
42% of senior high school teachers taught only one or two classes on the topic.
Additional research findings indicate that school-based tobacco-use prevention
programs are most effective when supported by community-wide programs that
involve parents, peers, mass media, and community organizations. [2]
Tobacco-use prevention activities should be designed to prevent the use of
all tobacco products. Such activities should include increasing tobacco prices,
reducing access (eg, by implementing and adequately enforcing minors' access
restrictions), reducing the appeal of tobacco products (eg, by restricting
advertising and promotion), and conducting youth-oriented mass media campaigns
and school-based tobacco-use prevention programs. [2, 10] Establishing
health-oriented social norms (eg, by increasing provision of smoke-free indoor
air and decreasing modeling of tobacco use by parents, teachers, and
celebrities) and increasing support and involvement from parents and schools
also will contribute to prevention. [2]
References
[1.] McGinnis JM, Foege WH. Actual causes of death in the United States. JAMA
993;270:2207-2212.
[2.] Preventing Tobacco Use Among Young People: A Report of the Surgeon
General. Atlanta, Ga: US Dept of Health and Human Services, Public Health
Service, CDC; 1994.
[3.] Everett SA, Husten CG, Warren CW, Crossett L, Sharp D. Trends in tobacco
use among high school students in the United States, 1991-1995. J Sch Health.
1998; (4) 137-140.
PAGE
86
Journal of School Health May, 1998
[4.] Kolbe LJ, Kann L, Collins JL. Overview of the youth risk behavior
surveillance system. Public Health Rep. 1993;108 (suppl 1) :2-9.
[5.] Giovino GA, Henningfield J, Tomar SL, Escobedo LE, Slade J. Epidemiology
of tobacco use and dependence. Epidemiol Rev. 1995;17:48-65.
[6.] National Cancer Institute. Cigars: Health Effects and Trends. Bethesda,
Md: US Dept of Health and Human Services, National Institutes of Health, 1998;
NIH publication no. 98-4302. (Smoking and tobacco control monograph no. 9) (in
press).
[7.] National Center for Education Statistics. Dropout Rates in the United
States, 1996. Washington, DC: US Dept of Education, National Center for
Education Statistics; 1997.
[8.] CDC. Guidelines for school health programs to prevent tobacco use and
addiction. MMWR. 1994;43 (RR-2) :1-18.
[9.] Crossett L, Everett SA, Brener N, Fishman J, Pechacek T. Measuring
adherence to the CDC guidelines for school health programs to prevent tobacco
use and addiction. J Health Educ. (in press).
[10.] Food and Drug Administration. Regulations restricting the sale and
distribution of cigarettes and smokeless tobacco to children and adolescents;
final rule. Federal Register. 1996;61:44395-618.
Office on Smoking and Health, Division of Adolescent and School Health,
National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention, 4770 Buford Highway, NE, MS k-33, Atlanta, GA
30341-3724. This article is reprinted from: Tobacco Use Among High School
Students - United States, 1997. MMWR. 1998;47 (12) :229-233.
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
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PAGE
1
LEVEL 1 - 6 OF 86 STORIES
Copyright 1999 Information Access Company,
a Thomson Corporation Company;
ASAP
Copyright 1999 U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report
June 4, 1999
SECTION: No. 21, Vol. 48; Pg. 440 ; ISSN: 0149-2195
IAC-ACC-NO: 54840706
LENGTH: 3504 words
HEADLINE: Trends in HIV-Related Sexual Risk Behaviors Among High School Students
-- Selected U.S. Cities, 1991-1997.
BODY:
Despite recent decreases in sexual risk behaviors among high school students
nationwide [1], human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection was the seventh
leading cause of death among persons aged 15-24 years in the United States
during 1997 [2]. To determine whether the prevalence of HIV-related sexual risk
behaviors among high school students also has decreased in certain urban areas
heavily affected by the epidemic, CDC analyzed data from Youth Risk Behavior
Surveys (YRBS) conducted in 1991, 1993, 1995, and 1997 in eight large-city
school districts: Boston, Massachusetts; Chicago, Illinois; Dallas, Texas; Fort
Lauderdale, Florida; Jersey City, New Jersey; Miami, Florida; Philadelphia,
Pennsylvania; and San Diego, California. This report summarizes the results of
this analysis, which indicate that, from 1991 to 1997, the percentage of high
school students engaging in HIV-related sexual risk behaviors decreased in some
U.S. cities.
The local YRBS, a component of CDC's Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance
System, measures the prevalence of health-risk behaviors among adolescents
through representative school-based surveys conducted biennially in selected
city school districts. The 1991, 1993, 1995, and 1997 surveys used a two-stage
cluster sample design to produce representative cross-sectional samples of
students in grades 9-12. The school districts in this report obtained weighted
data (i.e., had a scientifically selected sample, an overall response rate of at
least 60%, and appropriate survey documentation) for at least 3 of the 4 years.
Across all districts and years, sample sizes ranged from 369 to 3343; school
response rates ranged from 81% to 100%; student response rates ranged from 62%
to 85%; and overall response rates ranged from 60% to 85%.
For each survey, students completed an anonymous self-administered
questionnaire that included questions about sexual intercourse, number of sex
partners, and condom use. Sexual experience was defined as ever having had
sexual intercourse, multiple sex partners as having had four or more sex
partners during one's lifetime, current sexual activity as having had sexual
intercourse during the 3 months preceding the survey, and condom use as having
used a condom at last sexual intercourse among currently sexually active
students. Data for racial/ethnic groups other than non-Hispanic black,
non-Hispanic white, and Hispanic were combined because, when presented
separately, sample sizes were too small for meaningful analysis.
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Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report June 4, 1999
Data were weighted to provide estimates generalizable to all public school
students in grades 9-12 in the respective jurisdictions. SUDAAN was used to
calculate 95% confidence intervals (Cls) and to conduct trend analyses. The
percentage change in behavior from 1991 to 1997 was calculated as the 1997
prevalence minus the 1991 prevalence divided by the 1991 prevalence and
multiplied by 100. Secular trends were analyzed using logistic regression
analyses that controlled for sex, school grade, and race/ethnicity. This report
provides results from tests of linear trends. For Boston, 1991 data were not
available; therefore, Boston's trend analyses were calculated from 1993 to 1997.
For Philadelphia, 1993 data were not available; trend analyses for that city
excluded data for that year.
Demographic characteristics of the respondents in 1997 closely matched the
characteristics of the respondents in 1991, 1993, and 1995 (Table 1).
Respondents were distributed evenly across sex and school grade, with slightly
smaller percentages of 12th-grade students. The racial/ethnic distributions
varied among cities, but generally had larger proportions of black and Hispanic
students than of white students.
From 1991 to 1997, the proportion of sexually experienced students decreased
significantly in Chicago, Dallas, and Fort Lauderdale; in Boston, the proportion
of sexually experienced students decreased significantly from 1993 to 1997
(Table 2). The percentage decrease in these cities ranged from 7% in Dallas to
16% in Chicago. The prevalence of multiple sex partners among students in the
same four cities decreased significantly (Table 2). The percentage decrease in
these four cities ranged from 12% in Fort Lauderdale to 33% in Chicago.
From 1991 to 1997, the proportion of students in Chicago, Dallas, Fort
Lauderdale, and Philadelphia who reported current sexual activity decreased
significantly (Table 2). The percentage decrease in these cities ranged from 8%
in Dallas to 16% in Chicago.
Condom use among currently sexually active students increased significantly
in Chicago, Dallas, Fort Lauderdale, Jersey City, Miami, and Philadelphia from
1991 to 1997 (Table 2). The percentage increase in these cities ranged from 25%
in Dallas to 52% in Jersey City.
Reported by: Div of Adolescent and School Health, National Center for
Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion; Div of HIV/AIDS Prevention-
Intervention, Research, and Support, National Center for HIV, STD, and TB
Prevention, CDC.
Editorial Note: Students in all but one of the eight U.S. cities examined in
this study demonstrated a significant improvement in at least one HIV-related
sexual risk behavior. The decrease in the percentage of urban students reporting
sexual experience and multiple sex partners parallels recent national trends in
these health-risk behaviors and represents a reversal of the increasing trend
that occurred nationally during the 1970s and 1980s [1, 3, 4). The increase in
four cities in the percentage of currently sexually active students reporting
condom use also parallels national trends [1,4]. Although the percentage of
currently sexually active students remained stable nationally from 1991 to 1997
[1], this percentage decreased significantly in four of the eight cities
included in this report. Declines in sexual risk behaviors among students in
these cities are important because these cities have large black and Hispanic
populations who have disproportionately higher rates of HIV infection [5].
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Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report June 4, 1999
The findings in this report are subject to at least three limitations.
First, although data for each school district represent students in that
jurisdiction, these school districts do not represent all cities heavily
affected by the HIV epidemic. Second, these data apply only to adolescents who
attended public high school. In the three cities for which data are available,
1996 high school dropout rates ranged from 3% in San Diego to 12% in
Philadelphia [6]. Adolescents not enrolled in school are more likely to be
sexually experienced and to have had multiple sex partners than adolescents
enrolled in school [7]. Finally, the extent of underreporting or overreporting
cannot be determined, although the survey questions demonstrate good test-retest
reliability [8].
In 1987, CDC began providing fiscal and technical support to local education
agencies in these and other cities where the prevalence of acquired
immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) is high. This support assists schools in
implementing HIV-prevention policies and programs for adolescents. For example,
in Boston and Miami, the local education agency requires high schools to use a
curriculum with demonstrated effectiveness in reducing sexual risk behaviors. In
Chicago, high school students participate in peer education to develop social
skills to avoid peer pressure. In Dallas, school nursing and counseling services
support the HIV-prevention program. In Fort Lauderdale, school-based health
centers provide health-care services to students at school, including referrals
for HIV counseling and testing. CDC also provides fiscal and technical support
to local community planning groups to plan and implement HIV-prevention programs
and services for adolescents. The decreases in sexual risk behaviors among high
school st udents in the eight cities analyzed in this report may reflect the
impact of these and other efforts, including those of families, local government
agencies, and community-based organizations.
Despite the reductions in risk for HIV infection among urban adolescents,
many remain at risk. Although school-based HIV-prevention education is widely
conducted in U.S. schools, efforts are needed to identify and disseminate
effective curricula that can help students avoid risk for HIV infection and to
increase the percentage of teachers who receive in-service training in HIV
prevention [9]. Community interventions should reinforce school-based HIV
prevention and provide additional HIV-related services to all adolescents,
particularly those at greatest risk for HIV infection.
References
(1.) CDC. Trends in sexual risk behaviors among high school students-United
States, 1991-1997. MMWR 1998;47:749-52.
(2.) Ventura SJ, Andersen RN, Martin JA, Smith BL. Births and deaths:
preliminary data for 1997. Hyattsville, Maryland: US Department of Health and
Human Services, CDC, National Center for Health Statistics, 1998. (National
vital statistics reports; vol 47, no. 41.
(3.) Abma J, Chandra A, Mosher W, Peterson L, Piccinino L. Fertility, family
planning, and women's health: new data from the 1995 National Survey of Family
Growth. Vital Health Stat 1997;23: 1-114.
(4.) Sonenstein FL, Ku L, Lindberg LD, Turner CF, Pleck JH. Changes in
sexual behavior and condom use among teenaged males: 1988 to 1995. Am J Public
Health 1998;88:956-9.
PAGE
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Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report June 4, 1999
(5.) CDC. HIV/AIDS surveillance report, 1998. Atlanta, Georgia: US
Department of Health and Human Services, CDC, 1998.
(6.) National Center for Education Statistics. Common core of data survey.
Washington, DC: US Department of Education, 1997.
(7.) CDC. Health risk behaviors among adolescents who do and do not attend
school-United States, 1992. MMWR 1994;43:129-32.
(8.) Brener ND, Collins JL, Kann L, Warren CW, Williams BI. Reliability of
the Youth Risk Behavior Survey questionnaire. Am J Epidemiol 1995;141:575-80.
(9.) CDC. School-based HIV-prevention education-United States, 1994. MMWR
1996;45:760-5.
Percentage of high school students who completed
the Youth Risk Behavior Survey, by demographic
Characteristics -- selected U.S. cities, 1997
Fort
Jersey
Characteristic
Boston Chicago Dallas Lauderdale City
Miami
Sex
Female
50.5
54.3
51.0
49.5
52.5
48.9
Male
49.5
45.7
49.0
50.5
47.5
51.1
Grade
9
30.6
34.1
38.7
32.1
36.1
32.6
10
25.3
28.5
24.3
26.6
24.3
27.0
11
24.3
21.0
19.3
22.3
20.3
20.5
12
19.3
16.0
17.7
19.0
18.8
17.6
Race/Ethnicity
White, non-Hispanic
16.4
8.1
11.4
39.8
4.0
10.5
Black, non-Hispanic
36.7
47.8
51.4
31.3
42.0
25.7
Hispanic
20.5
34.7
33.1
18.6
32.0
55.6
Other [*]
26.4
9.4
4.1
10.3
22.0
8.3
PAGE
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Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report June 4, 1999
San
Characteristic
Philadelphia Diego
Sex
Female
50.5
49.6
Male
49.5
50.4
Grade
9
38.7
29.1
10
25.9
27.5
11
20.0
24.3
12
15.3
18.9
Race/Ethnicity
White, non-Hispanic
23.9
31.7
Black, non-Hispanic
53.8
16.4
Hispanic
8.1
25.8
Other [*]
14.1
26.0
(*.) Data for racial/ethnic groups other than non-Hispanic white,
non-Hispanic black, and Hispanic were combined because, when presented
separately, sample sizes were too small for meaningful analysis.
Percentage of high school students who reported HIV-related sexual risk
behaviros, by city -- selected U.S. cities, Youth Risk Behavior Survey,
1991-1997
Ever had sexual intercourse
PAGE
6
Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report June 4, 1999
1991
1997
City
%
(95% CI [*])
%
Boston [ss]
60.6
([plus or minus) 3.5) 54.7
Chicago
64.3
([plus or minus) 4.7) 53.9
Dallas
66.6
([plus or minus] 4.4) 62.1
Fort
Lauderdale
55.5
([plus or minus] 4.6) 50.4
Jersey City
65.0
([plus or minus] 9.2) 58.1
Miami
54.8
([plus or minus] 5.1) 51.8
Philadelphia [n]
68.0
([plus or minus) 7.8) 63.9
San Diego
48.0
([plus or minus] 6.5) 44.7
City
(95% CI)
p value [+]
Boston [ss]
([plus or minus] 4.0)
0.02
Chicago
([plus or minus) 6.9) [less than] 0.01
Dallas
([plus or minus) 3.0) [less than] 0.01
Fort
Lauderdale
([plus or minus) 4.7) [less than] 0.01
Jersey City
([plus or minus 2.7)
0.26
Miami
([plus or minus] 5.2)
0.32
Philadelphia [n] ([plus or minus] 4.6)
0.10
San Diego
([plus or minus 3.1)
0.15
PAGE
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Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report June 4, 1999
Four or more sex partners
during lifetime
1991
1997
City
%
(95% % CI)
010
Boston [ss]
25.9
([plus or minus] 3.6) 20.9
Chicago
29.8
([plus or minus) 4.2) 19.9
Dallas
32.1
([plus or minus] 3.6) 25.8
Fort
Lauderdale
20.6
([plus or minus] 3.2) 18.2
Jersey City
28.2
([plus or minus] 6.9) 23.2
Miami
20.4
([plus or minus] 4.2) 19.6
Philadelphia [n]
31.6
([plus or minus 10.9) 28.4
San Diego
15.8
([plus or minus] 4.7) 15.1
City
(95% CI)
p value
Boston [ss]
([plus or minus) 2.9)
0.02
Chicago
([plus or minus] 4.1) [less than] 0.001
Dallas
([plus or minus 2.7) [less than] 0.001
Fort
Lauderdale
([plus or minus 2.9) [less than] 0.01
Jersey City
([plus or minus] 4.0)
0.34
Miami
([plus or minus] 3.4)
0.99
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Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report June 4, 1999
Philadelphia [n] ([plus or minus ] 4.1)
0.23
San Diego
([plus or minus 2.0)
0.40
Currently sexually active
1991
1997
City
%
(95% CI)
010
Boston [ss]
42.0
([plus or minus] 3.3) 39.3
Chicago
44.9
([plus or minus] 4.6) 37.7
Dallas
47.5
([plus or minus] 4.2) 43.7
Fort
Lauderdale
39.1
([plus or minus 3.8) 34.1
Jersey City
47.1
([plus or minus 7.3) 40.9
Miami
35.0
([plus or minus] 3.9) 34.2
Philadelphia [n]
50.7
([plus or minus) 6.7) 46.0
San Diego
30.3
([plus or minus] ]5.1) 31.2
Condom use during last
sexual intercourse
1991
City
(95% CI)
p value
oto
Boston [ss]
([plus or minus) 3.7)
0.34
63.9
Chicago
([plus or minus ] 4.5)
0.04
50.3
Dallas
([plus or minus 3.2) [less than] 0.01
48.5
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Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report June 4, 1999
Fort
Lauderdale
([plus or minus ] 3.7) [less than 0.01
42.9
Jersey City
([plus or minus ] 3.6)
0.17
39.0
Miami
([plus or minus) ] 4.7)
0.93
45.1
Philadelphia [n] ([plus or minus] 4.1)
0.05
47.6
San Diego
([plus or minus ] 2.6)
0.80
43.1
1997
City
(95% CI)
or
(95% CI)
Boston [ss]
([plus or minus] 5.1) 64.0 ([plus or minus) (5.7)
Chicago
([plus or minus] 5.6) 67.0 ([plus or minus) 7.0)
Dallas
([plus or minus] 1.9) 60.8 ([plus or minus) 4.3)
Fort
Lauderdale
([plus or minus] 5.2) 64.3 ([plus or minus 4.0)
Jersey City
([plus or minus] 10.9) 59.1 ([plus or minus) 4.6)
Miami
([plus or minus] 5.1) 61.8 ([plus or minus] 4.7)
Philadelphia [n] ([plus or minus] 4.2) 70.5 ([plus or minus] 5.1)
San Diego
([plus or minus] 9.4) 50.1 ([plus or minus] 3.7)
City
p value
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Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report June 4, 1999
Boston [ss]
0.84
Chicago
[less than ] 0.001
Dallas
[less than 0.001
Fort
Lauderdale
[less than] 0.001
Jersey City
[less than] 0.01
Miami
[less than] 0.001
Philadelphia [n] [less than] 0.001
San Diego
0.13
(*.) Confidence interval.
(+.) For linear trend including data from 1991, 1993, 1995, and 1997.
(ss.) Percentage and Cls listed in 1991 column are for 1993; trend analysis
is for 1993-1997.
(n.) Data for 1993 were not available.
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