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TOP SECRET - 2 - can make ample use of our uncertainty if we have no hard intelligence on their actual capabilities. ) (c) With regard to Tyura Tam, the President felt that information obtained from that area would indicate nothing as recent progress of actual construction. In this connection, he cited the great difficulty of concealing construction while it is under way. He does not feel that our intelligence on this matter must be obtained "this year or never. 3 (d) The psychological impact on Khrushchev of our flying such a mission at this time would be very serious. We are currently in a state of negotia- - tions over the Berlin crisis which threatens to be one of the most serious of our crises to date. As an example of the mood, he cited the statement made recently by Khrushchev to Mr. Carlo Schmid of the German Socialist Party that no unilateral action would be taken by the Soviets until after the termination of a summit meeting. He further cited the State Department's apparently optimistic outlook for negotiations, as evidenced by their re- questing his approval asking Khrushchev for information on our eleven missing airmen (from the C-130 incident last fall). Since our U-2 flights have been detected consistently for the past two years, we will inevitably be needling Khrushchev by conducting such an action. This could have serious repercussions on the negotiating atmosphere we are trying to foster. Mr. Murphy confirmed the President's view that Khrushchev would exact a price for such action on our part. In the course of the discussion, various other issues were brought out: (a) The unfavorable reflection of Soviet testing on their claims of having ICBMs in serial production. (b) The timing of our own production of a successor to the U-2, which Dr. Killian estimated as two years. (c) The vulnerability of the U-2 to the Soviet YAK interceptor. Here Mr. Quarles feels the U-2 is relatively safe so long as the Soviets have not developed a reliable air-to-air missile. This was confirmed by Mr. Bissell and Dr. Killian by mentioning the mission last fall in which the Soviets scrambled fifty aircraft. (d) A comparison between Soviet and U.S. SAM capabilities. It was agreed that the Soviets apparently do not have a capability comparable to that of NIKE (60, 000 feet altitude and range for AJAX; 75,000 feet altitude and for HERCULES). If they did, the U-2 would not

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This memorandum authored by John S. D. Eisenhower describes the lack of intelligence on the progress of the Soviet Intercontinental Ballistic Missile program. The military and political risks and benefits of overflights of the Soviet Union are also described.

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    "ocrText": "TOP SECRET\n- 2 -\ncan make ample use of our uncertainty if we have no hard intelligence\non their actual capabilities. )\n(c) With regard to Tyura Tam, the President felt that information\nobtained from that area would indicate nothing as recent progress of actual\nconstruction. In this connection, he cited the great difficulty of concealing\nconstruction while it is under way. He does not feel that our intelligence\non this matter must be obtained \"this year or never.\n3\n(d) The psychological impact on Khrushchev of our flying such a mission\nat this time would be very serious. We are currently in a state of negotia- -\ntions over the Berlin crisis which threatens to be one of the most serious\nof our crises to date. As an example of the mood, he cited the statement\nmade recently by Khrushchev to Mr. Carlo Schmid of the German Socialist\nParty that no unilateral action would be taken by the Soviets until after the\ntermination of a summit meeting. He further cited the State Department's\napparently optimistic outlook for negotiations, as evidenced by their re-\nquesting his approval asking Khrushchev for information on our eleven\nmissing airmen (from the C-130 incident last fall). Since our U-2 flights\nhave been detected consistently for the past two years, we will inevitably\nbe needling Khrushchev by conducting such an action. This could have\nserious repercussions on the negotiating atmosphere we are trying to foster.\nMr. Murphy confirmed the President's view that Khrushchev would exact\na price for such action on our part.\nIn the course of the discussion, various other issues were brought out:\n(a) The unfavorable reflection of Soviet testing on their claims of\nhaving ICBMs in serial production.\n(b) The timing of our own production of a successor to the U-2, which\nDr. Killian estimated as two years.\n(c) The vulnerability of the U-2 to the Soviet YAK interceptor. Here\nMr. Quarles feels the U-2 is relatively safe so long as the Soviets have not\ndeveloped a reliable air-to-air missile. This was confirmed by Mr. Bissell\nand Dr. Killian by mentioning the mission last fall in which the Soviets\nscrambled fifty aircraft.\n(d) A comparison between Soviet and U.S. SAM capabilities. It was\nagreed that the Soviets apparently do not have a capability comparable to\nthat of NIKE (60, 000 feet altitude and\nrange for AJAX; 75,000 feet\naltitude and\nfor HERCULES). If they did, the U-2 would not"
}