War Production Board - "War Progress", February-August 1944

UPB: "war Progess" Feb.-Aug 1444 The President 1 WAR PROGRESS 6.7. Was Produce ten Board I X Disclosure Punishable Under Espionage Act DECLASSIFIED E.O. 11652 Sec. 3(E) and #(D) at (4) Commerce Dept. Letter, 11-16-78 By RHF, Date MAR 141973 No. 1 Trouble Area Bringing the '44 Program up to Date CMP: From Too Little to Enough x4735 x4675 Number 180 February 26, 1944 WAR PROGRESS Prepared in the War Production Board Donald M. Nelson, Chairman War Progress is a confidential report designed to provide a coordinated and continuing picture of the overall war program for the various war agencies. To this end, it presents, analyzes, and interprets basic statistical and economic information, and from time to time examines the pros and cons of controversial questions. Although War Progress is an official publication of the War Production Board, statements in it are not to be construed as expressing official attitudes of the Board as a whole, or even of individual members. Conclusions, whenever reached, should be considered editorial conclusions. War Progress is prepared in the Bureau of Planning and Statistics (Stacy May, Director) by the Munitions Branch (Morris A. Copeland, Chief). Editorial Staff Editor, Joseph A. Livingston; Associates: Thomas A. Falco, Roy T. Frye (drafting), Winona Hibbard; Morris Katz, Chester L. Kieffer, John C. Loeser, Herbert J. Muller, Joseph H. Spigelman, J.S. Werking (production). Contributors Joseph A. Zettler ( munitions ), William F. Butler ( aircraft). Warren F. Looney ( army ordnance), Herbert Stein economics). This report contains CONFIDENTIAL information affecting the defense of the United States. See inside back cover for rules of custody. DECLASSIFIED E.O. 11652, Sec. 3(E) and 5(D) or (E) By Commerce Dept. Letter, MAR 11-16-78 RHP, 1973 CONFIDENTIAL NUMBER 180 WAR PROGRESS FEBRUARY 26, 1944 Los Angeles: Tightest Tight Spot Enlargement of Army embarkation center and And those, too, will have to be replaced influx of war contracts boost lobor require- if war production schedules are to be ments. Housing is short and in-migration met. has fallen. Something must give. What makes the job so important is that Los Angeles is choking with high- TO LOS ANGELES goes the dubious distinc- urgency war orders: 78% of its war tion of being the foremost manpower production is in aircraft; another 13% trouble spot in the United States. in ships or parts for ships: the remain- Of 1,500,000 workers in the area, ing 9% includes 100-octane gasoline, major war industries and transportation synthetic rubber, and radio and radar. companies today employ over 400,000. And these particular industries, togeth- But in the next 30 to 60 days, they er with the ship repair program, are indicate they'll need 33,000 more: and asking for 75% of the additional work- in sixmonths, they'll need another 23,- ers. Further, manpower is needed for 000. Thus all told, between now and the railroads and transportation facilities: summer, 56,000 additional workers must for the enlargement of the Army embar- be dug up: that's one worker for every kation center at Long Beach (first, seven now employed by these industries. construction workers are required: after Nor is that the full measure of the that, permanent stevedores as well as recruitment problem. Unquestionably a other miscellaneous help). large number of workers will be drafted. Here is the demand side of the Los DIVERGENT TRENDS IN MUNITIONS EMPLOYMENT After steep rises, aircraft and shipbuilding rolls have held fairly steady. Ammunition plants, reflecting cutbacks, have been laying workers off since July. 1200 1200 Shipbuilding 800 800 THOUSANDS OF WORKERS Aircraft (excluding engines) THOUSANDS OF WORKERS 400 400 Ammunition o o J F M A M J J A 5 o N 0 J F M A M J J A 5 o N o 1942 1943 WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 2 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS Angeles ledger for major war programs: Copper miners, particularly, went west. But of late, in-migration has been vir- 30-60 Total tuallynil, and the few in-migrants who Program Days 6 mos. do come in are not skilled workers: Aircraft & parts 14,121 14,121 usually, they're persons who haven't Ship repair 1,535 12,545 worked in years. Railroads 6,723 6,723 The problem, specifically, is hous- Tires 2,426 6,069 ing and community facilities. Los Ange- Army embarkation port. - 5,400 les, like many war-born production areas, Landing craft (incl. is congested. And the war housing pro- subcontracts) 2,679 4,379 gram is not up to schedule. The labor Maritime Commission 2,990 2,990 to build the houses for the workers to Local transport 1,972 1,972 live in can't be found. Some 66,000 Radio & radar 317 910 family units have been planned for the 100-octane gas 406 722 area: only 35,000 have been completed. Synthetic rubber 388 388 And within the next two months, when Total 33,557 56,219 the peak of the current demand for work- None of the usual solutions is avail- ers is to be reached, only 4,600 dwell- able. Womanpower has been drawn on ex- ing unitsare scheduled to be finished. tensively throughout the Los Angeles It seems clear that 33,000 new workers, area, and it is not likely that many if brought from the outside, will not more women can be induced to leave their be able to squeeze into that number of homes for industry. Experience in re- new homes, plus the wavailable places cruiting workers from outside a labor vacated by nonworkers. However, Los shortage area has not been very fruit- Angeles will get a good share of the ful, but even this avenue cannot be 10,500 units whose construction in that overlooked. area and in San Diego is being expedited At one time, Los Angeles drew heavily with an AA-1 rating. And as a further on other regions for its labor supply. stopgap, 3,000 trailers are being moved Wages were high, the work pleasant, and into the area. the climate a strong selling point. TRANSPORTATION TROUBLE Transportation also has been and IN THIS ISSUE: still is a problem. The Los Angeles Transportation Company can't get the LOS ANGELES: TIGHTEST TIGHT STOP 1 mechanics it needs: as a result, its bus schedules have been cut 40%. Es- DIVERGENT TRENDS INMUNITIONS EMPLOYMENT 1 sential service industries-shoe repair FACTORY EMPLOYMENT TURNING DOWN 3 shops, restaurants, laundries, etc.- have beenstripped to the bone of their KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK 4 workers. RECHECK OF THE '44 MUNITIONS PROGRAM 5 A further complication is that about half the additional workers are wanted CMP ENTERS ROUTINE ERA: DEMAND DROPS 7 in the already congested harbor area SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS 11 around Long Beach, where a score of major war plants and military establish- REPORTS ON REPORTS 12 ments-such as Douglas Aircraft Company, CONFIDENTIAL FEBRUARY 26, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL. 3 FACTORY EMPLOYMENT TURNING DOWN In January, employment in all manufacturing plants dropped to the lowest level in a year, 2.5% below the August peak. 17 17 Manufacturing Employment 16 16 MILLIONS OF WORKERS 15 15 MILLIONS OF WORKERS 14 14 13 n 13 J F M A M J J A 5 o N D J F M A M J J A 5 o N o J F M 1942 1943 1944 WAR PROGRESS the Army's port of embarkation, and the -APUC-was set up to represent the Army, Navy's Roosevelt (fleet) Base-are clus- Navy, Maritime Commission, War Manpower tered. This area is about 20 miles from Commission, etc. Its chief jobs were Los Angeles proper, and has its own (1) to review all new prime contracts transportation, housing, and service- requiring additional workers and (2) to trade problems. It is, therefore, a determine-under guidance of the WPB critical labor area within an already Production Executive Committee in Wash- tight labor area. ington-relative production urgencies for plants in the area. That is, a PERSISTENT PROBLEM plant turningout airplanes, for example, Los Angeles has persistently had to was decreed more vital than one making cope with a manpower insufficiency. spare parts for mining machinery. Indeed, lest summer the whole Pacific Coast-from Seattle to San Diego-was CEILING SYSTEM one big labor shortage area. Twice as In turn, a War Manpower Commission- many additional workers were required chairmanned Area Manpower Priorities as were available. Then-in September Committee-AMPC-set employment ceilings -the West Coast Manpower Plan went in plants at the July 1, 1943, level: into effect (WP-Oct30'43, pl). then-using the controlled referral In each of the five major industrial system of the Buffalo Manpower Plan areas on the coast, including Los An- (WP-Aug21'43, pl)-it saw to it that geles, a War Production Board-chair- workers were directed into the high- manned Area Production Urgency Committee urgency output plants which were having CONFIDENTIAL 4 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS difficulty in getting their employment 2. Review of all new contracts for up to their permitted ceilings. the area. Under the present procedure, The West Coast plan had a double plants are permitted, to accept contracts effect: It shunted out of the Los An- without review if no additional labor geles area nonwar production, thus sav- requirements are indicated. These are ing labor; it reduced hoarding of labor usually replacement contracts. But many by placing ceilings on manpower. The times, after such contracts are placed, net effect was that, temporarily, the the plants come into the labor market. supply-demand position loosened. Moreover, keeping out some of these replacement contracts would take pres- SOMETHING OLD, SOMETHING NEW sure off the labor supply. But now it looks as if further strin- 3. Reviewing subcontracts, as well gent measures will have to be adopted. as prime contracts. The Area Produc- Possibilities are: tion Urgency Committee does not examine 1. More careful screening of new con- subcontracts, and many large subcontracts tracts. In January the Area Production involve additional labor. Urgency Committee approved 43 supply 4. Forcing some subcontracts out of contracts, totaling $169,000,000, for the area. the area. None was turned down. Yet 5. Revising the ceiling system. Under in many cases production is lagging be- the West Coast Manpower Plan each plant hind schedule. The Navy, for instance, has been given a ceiling above which has 1,584 prime contractors in and about its employment may not rise. And it Los Angeles; of the 63 most important has been suggested that when a plant ones, 47 are behind schedule. exceeds its production schedule, its KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK Lotest Preceding Month 6 Months Year Week Week Ago Ago Ago Wor program-Checks paid (millions of dollars) 1,653 2,104 1,477 1,777 1,527 War bond soles (millions of dollars) 676 589 322 165 212 Wholesale prices (1926 100) All commodities 103.3" 103.1° 103.0' 102.8 102.4 Form products 122.8' 121.9 121.9 123.8 120.0 Foods 104.1 104.0 104.6 105.8 105.7 All other than form products and foods 98.2" 98.1° 97.9" 97.3 96.4 Petroleum: Total corloadings 53,030 51,264 48,142 58,213 51,994" Movement of cors into the Eost 23,631 22,272 21,811 30,111 26,152 Totol stocks of residual fuel oil (thousands of borreis) 52,965 52,453 53,431 66,724 70,428 Bituminous Coal: Production (thousands of short tons, daily overage) 2,158' 2,142 2,125 2,005 2,033 Freight cors unlooded for export, excluding grain (daily overage) Atlantic Coost ports 2,540 2,788 3,183 2,584 1,226 Gulf Coast ports 358 310 438 353 398 Pacific Coost ports 1,348 1,182 1,328 1,444 980 Steel operations (% of copacity) 97.7 97.7 96.5" 99.4 98.9 Department store soles (% change from o year ago) -9 -21 +15 +15" +33 p. preliminary Γ. revised CONFIDENTIAL FEBRUARY 26, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL 5 ceiling be reduced. Contractors are their labor per given war contract. loath, therefore, to beat schedules. In the final analysis, however, no They might lose labor. The net result single method will work. A general is that the ceilings, though they forced tightening up all along the line is dehoarding of labor initially, now tend necessary. Labor requirements will have to cause hoarding. A progressive re- to be cut; some contracts will have to duction of ceilings each month has been be shifted out of the area: plants will offered AS the answer. That would force have touse their workers more efficient- the contractors to get the most out of ly: housing will have to be completed. Recheck of the '44 Munitions Program New Army requirements do not change size of from January is apt to be 9% to 10%. job substantially. Average monthly output Aircraft continues to be the dominant mustrun 5% higher than December peok if rising program. Ships go up slightly. $71,800,000,000 schedule is to be met. Here the job is not to get big increases, but to make important shifts on types THE SIZE of the production job for 1944 without losing volume. Thus the Navy now be assessed with some assurance. is pushing landing craft, the Maritime The Army Service Forces have just com- Commission Victory ships and combat- pleted major revisions in requirements, loaded vessels. In ammunition, the in- lopping off about $2,500,000,000. But crease in Navy schedules counterbalances some of this had already been taken the sharp Army cutback. Communication into account in actual schedules. The and electronic equipment drops from the net result is that the total munitions December rate, largely because of re- program-embracing the Army, Navy, end ductions in radio requirements. But Maritime Commission-comes to about airborne radar (WP-Jan15'44,n9 still $71,800,000,000 for this year. The rises sharply. shifts in the Army program were about The comparison of the December annual as expected. Ground army items were rate of production with the program as generally cut rather sharply. it now shapes up, follows: However, the reduction WAS not so Annual Rate 1944 great as some of the prophecies about Dec. '43 Program it. And actually, a fairly substantial (billions) rise in total munitions output in 1944 Total munitions $68.5 $71.8 is now called for. In December, the Aircraft 18.6 24.2 value of all munitions output was at an Ships 15.0 15.2 annual rate of $68,500,000,000. To Guns & fire control 4.4 3.4 meet the program, average monthly pro- Ammunition 6.4 6.5 duction this year will have to rise 5%. Combat & motor veh. 6.8 5.4 And the rise to the peak month is apt Commun. & elec 5.3 4.5 to be about 7% to 89. Other equip., etc.. 12.0 12.6 Moreover, output dropped in January In adjusting Army schedules to the -to an annual rate of $67,000,000,000. new requirements, the tendency will be Thus average monthly production must to reduce contracts in gradual stepdowns advance 7% if the 1944 program is to be from recent levels. That will mean that met: and the increase to the penk month ASF production will be higher in the CONFIDENTIAL 6 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS first half of 1944 than in the second of inventories, ammunition requirements half. It will also mean that overall for this year, for instance, were re- munitions production probably will still duced nearly 40% since August: and small reach a peak about the middle of the arms ammunition is down about 70%. Among year. Further inference is that total artillery ammunition, shells for the labor requirements in munitions indus- 37mm. gun and the 75mm. howitzer were tries will not relax during the next cut 88%; the 105mm. howitzer shells were four to six months. down about 15%. AA artillery ammuni- The 1944 production prospect has tion was cut about 50%. On the other important implications geographically. hand, ammunition requirements for the Programs which are stable or rising- comparatively new 76mm. tank gun jumped aircraft and ships-are concentrated 166%. The 76mm. gun is replacing the on the coasts. Programs which are de- 75 on tanks. Requirements for 90mm. clining-ammunition, combat vehicles, and 155mm. shells also rise. guns-are located largely in interior cities, especially the Middle West. NEW ROCKET LAUNCHER Thus, some of the critical labor areas The August-February reduction in guns will become less critical as these cut- is almost as large as that for ammuni- backs take effect. But that will not tion-37%. Most of the drop is in anti- ease up the labor squeeze in such tight aircraft artillery. Requirements for spots as Los Angeles (page 1). the Bofors AAgun, for instance, dropped Some of the shifts in the Army Supply from 12,840 to 1,500. Among rifles, Program in the last six months are dra- demand for the carbine was cut from matic. Because of a heavy accumulation 3,000,000 to 2,000,000. A new item is THE 1944 MUNITIONS PROSPECT Despite cutbacks in the ASP, average monthly output this year will have to rise 5% over the peak in December. This was the annual rate of production in December: This was the annual rate of production in January: This is the 1944 program: This is what the rate may have to be in June: o 20 40 60 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL FEBRUARY 26, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL 7 in the program: the three-tube, 4.5- The communication and electronic inch rocket launcher is out of the ex- equipment program is still a tough one. perimental stage. Both the ground and airborne radar pro- The composition of the Army Supply grams have been expanded in the new ASP, Program on August 1 and February 1 was: and include many new types of equipment Aug. 1 Feb. 1 still in the development stage. 1943 1944 In the case of motor vehicles, such (millions) as armored cars, scout cars, and trucks, Guns & fire control $2,000 $1,250 the reduction in requirements was due Ammunition 6,700 4,200 largely to problems in production. The Combat & motor veh. 5,500 4,800 quantities wanted didn't seem feasible. Comm. & elec 3,600* 3,4001 For instance, heavy-heavy truck require- Other equip., etc. 4,900 5,000 ments were cut 28%, because of the short- *Adjusted. Ppeliminary. age of components. CMP Enters Routine Era: Demand Drops Setting precedent, military claimants osk for ments for carbon steel were some 11% less carbon steel than they were actually lower this time than last. It was the allocated in preceding quarter; get 42% first time that Army and Navy demands of total, against 46% last time. have been reduced from one quarter to the next. And even more significant, TWO FACTS stand out about the fifth it was the first time that the military round of CMP: the military claimants no requests were less than the allotments longer need all the materials they can for the preceding quarter. get, while the nonmilitary claimants cannot yet put touse all the materials CIVILIAN LIMITS that are available. The limiting factors in civilian Cutbacks in military programs--es- production are facilities, components, pecially the February 1 revision in the and especially manpower. Despite in- Army's Supply Program, which will cut dicated surplus capacity for raw steel, deeply into production of artillery, copper, and aluminum in the second quar- small arms and ammunition, armored ve- ter, facilities for rolling steel plates hicles, trucks-have reduced military and sheets, for casting aluminum, and requirements for steel, copper, aluminum. for drawing copper wire will still be A contributing influence was the tight. Still tighter will be facilities closer calculation of the unit weights, and manpower for making civilian prod- lead times, and inventory requirements. ucts. Thus, the National Housing Ad- Thus the Navy cut the carbon steel re- ministration would have asked for and quirements for its destroyer escort received more than 48,000 tons of carbon program by 17,700 tons to allow for an steel, but experience has taught that indicated excess inventory in shipyards labor and lumber shortages would prob- building these vessels; while the Army ably make it impossible for it to con- deflated the unit weights for small arms sume even what was allotted. Similarly, ammunition by an additional 3%. For the Office of Civilian Requirements' these reasons, total military require- requests were held down by continued CONFIDENTIAL 8 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS stringencies in components and manpower. ments of carbon steel among claimant The table below compares carbon steel agencies, and their respective shares requests for the first and second quar- of the total, follow: ters of 1944: 2nd Quarter Claimants Allotments % of Total 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. % (net tons) Requests Requests Change (thousands of tons) Military 7,094,000 42.5% Total ARCO 130,000 .8 17,343 16,459 -5.1% Total milit. Army 2,930,000 17.5 8,455 7,373 -12.8 ARCO Navy 1,680,000 10.1 156 130 -16.7 Maritime 2,354,000 14.1 Army 3,446 3,157 -8.4 Export 1,455,000 8.7 Navy 1,932 1,682 -12.9 FEA (OLLA plus Maritime 2,921 2,404 -17.7 OEW) 1,195,000 7.1 Total foreign 1,684 1,572 -6.7 Canada 260,000 1.6 FEA 1,344 1,302 -3.1 Canada 340 270 Nonmilitary 7,048,200 .42.2 -20.6 WFA Nonmilitary 7,204 7,514 975,000 5.8 +4.3 WFA NHA 884 48,000 .3 1,105 +25.0 PAW NHA 61 465,000 2.8 48 -21.3 PAW ORD 447 472 35,700 .2 +5.6 ODT* ORD 40 1,812,000 10.8 37 -7.5 OWU* ODT* 1,705 1,902 329,000 2.0 +11.6 OCR OWU* 241 210,000 1.3 374 +55.2 OVC OCR 175 271 3,173,500 19.0 +54.9 OVC 3,651 3,305 -9.5 Other reserves. 1,103,300 6.6 "Includes reserves. *Includes reserves. Total allotments were 16,700,000 Because requests declined relative tons. The military share was 42%, as to supplies, it was possible to give against 46% in the first quarter. Mar- claimant agencies almost all the steel, itime's allotment declined most from copper, and aluminum they asked for. the preceding quarter, both percentage- Thus total requests for carbon steel wise (11%) and in actual tonnage (300,- ran only 5% above final allotments, as 000)-because of the shift in its pro- against 11% and 16% respectively in the gram. The Army's declined almost as preceding quarters. much (277,000) and, consequently, it yielded first place to the Operations ONE DAY VERSUS FOUR Vice Chairman, inwhose "B" product al- And there was little controversy lotments it will, however, continue to over particular allotments. Where, for- share indirectly. merly, the Program Adjustment Committee would take three or four days to decide ALLOTMENTS DOWN 1% on its recommendations to the Require- The export claimants received about ments Committee, one day sufficed this 4% less than last time, while civilian time. And the Requirements Committee claimants received 8.7% more, with OWU accepted the PAC recommendations with- registering the largest increase and out dispute or change. OCR running in second place. And total The Requirements Committee allot- carbon steel allotments to claimants CONFIDENTIAL FEBRUARY 26, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL 9 ROUND 5 FOR CMP: IT'S ROUTINE Claimant agencies get almost os much carbon steel as they ask for. Military requests drop below preceding quarter's allotments. TOTAL CARBON STEEL-ROUND 5 This is what the claimonts asked for (stated requests): This is what the requests were screened to: This is what has been allotted: These are the authorized allot- ments for the previous round: o 5 IO 15 MILLIONS OF TONS Here is how major claimants fared: Army Operations Vice Chairman Stated Requests Screened Requests Allotment Previous Allotment Moritime Novy Stoted Requests Screened Requests Allotment Previous Allotment Office of Defense Transportation Foreign Economic Administration Stated Requests Screened Requests Allotment Previous Allotment 3 2 o o 2 3 MILLIONS OF TONS MILLIONS OF TONS W/F PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 10 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS were 1%less than authorized allotments however, that ODT would return to the last time: General Reserve any part of this allot- ment not covered by firm orders. Though Claimants % Change the Program Bureau recommended A cut Military -9.0% in PAW's request for carbon steel from ARCO +6.8 472,000 to 448,000 tons, the PAC "com- Army -8.6 promised" the difference up to 465,000 Navy -8.7 tons. Maritime -11.3 How close stated requests, Program Foreign -4.0 Bureau proposals, and final allotments FEA -3.9 were to each other can be seen from Canada -1.9 the following table: Nonmilitary +8.7 Allotments as % of WFA +13.2 Stated Prog. Bur. NHA plus reserves -4.2 Requests PAW +10.4 Proposals ARCO ORD 100.0% 100.0% -4.3 Army 92.8 ODT plus reserves. 100.0 +18.0 OWU plus reserves. Navy 99.9 100.0 +46.2 OCR Maritime 97.9 +28.6 96.1 OVC FEA 91.8 +1.0 108.6 Canada Total 95.3 100.0 -1.1% WFA 88.2 100.0 In making its proposals to the Re- NHA* 100.0 100.0 quirements Committee, the PAC stuck PAW 98.5 103.8 closely to Program Bureau recommenda- ODT* 92.0 108.5 tions. Only for six claimants did ORD 95.9 100.0 final allotments differ from screened QWU* 88.0 103.1 requests. In the case of FEA, two proj- OCR 77.5 100.0 ects were cut out. However, the Program OVC 96.0 100.7 Adjustment Committee and Requirements - Includes reserves. Committee felt that, in view of the After the Program Bureau made its easing of the supply-demand position proposal for the Maritime Commission, for carbon steel, FEA could in compen- the Commission voluntarily revised its sation be allowed 60,000 tons of off- request downward. That explains why grade steel, unfit for other CMP orders, the final allotment to the Maritime was and adeferred allotment of 47,000 tons. lower than the bureau's proposal. The This made its total allotment 85,000 7.2% reduction in the Army's original tons more than the Program Bureau's request reflects the February 1 cuts suggestion. in the Army Supply Program (as previous- ly noted). OVC was allotted more than SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE its screened requirements to enable PAC also decided to allow ODT an ad- WPB's Transportation Division to program ditional 142,000 tons, making a total sufficient B products for the expanded of 347,000 tons for freight cars, in freight-car program. spite of Program Bureau doubts that the Only in the case of three agencies railroads would actually place orders did Program Bureau screeningmake fairly for that many cars. It was understood, serious inroads into stated require- CONFIDENTIAL FEBRUARY 26, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL. 11 SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS Federal Finance-Labor Disputes-Employment Some Same Lotest Preceding 2 Months 6 Months Year Month* Month Month Month Ago Ago Ago 1939 1937 FEDERAL FINANCE (GENERAL FUND) Expenditures Total (billion dollars) 7.6 7.4 7.8 7.1 6.4 .6 .5 Wor 7.1 6.7 7.5 6,4 5.9 .1 - Nonwor ,4 .7 +3 .7 .4 .6 .5 Revenues-Total 2.7 5.7 2.1 2,0 .8 .3 .3 Income taxes Other 1.7 5.0 1.4 1.2 .3 .1 .1 War bond soles 1.0 .7 .6 .8 .5 .2 .2 "E" 1.7 .8 .8 is 1.2 - - "F" and "G" 1.1 -7 -7 .7 .1 For .8 - - .6 Net debt .1 .2 .4 - - 158.4 153.6 151.2 132.9 103.3 36.7 32.8 LABOR DISPUTES Number of strikes in progress 350° 330° 310 460* 169 222 333 Workers involved (thousands) 276° 510' 219 980* 62 Number of strikes beginning during month 37 61 325° 300" 290 425" 147 106 Workers involved (thousands) 131 241" 500* 215 975" Man-days idle (thousands) 59 12 22 715° 2,825' 975 4,750 193 384 674 NONAGRIC EMPLOYMENT-TOTAL 37.229° 38,478 38,298 38,364 37,862 Manufacturing - Total 28,364 n.a. 15,800° 16,078 16,229 Durable Goods 16,136 15,743 9,535 9.575 9.727 9,802" Nondurable Goods 9,617 9,178 4,148 6,225* 6,351 6,427 " Government 6,519 6,565 5,387 5,791° 6,048* Other 5,861 5,848 5,689 3,896 15,638* 16,352 16,208 16,380 16,430 14,933 D.A. FEDERAL CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT (thousands) 3,240 3,029 2.997 3,162* 2,956 n.a. a.a. Wor 2,168* 2,176 2,164 2,338* 2,049 Wor Department 1,248" 1,258 1,263 1,440* Novy Department 1,280 702 700 682 665 * Other Wor Agencies 560 219 218 219 Nonwor 233 * 210 1,072 853 833 824 907 n.a. n.a. Federal Finance, Nonagricultural Employment, January; Labor Disputes, Federal Civilian Employment, December. P Preliminary. F Revised. n.s. Not available. ments. FEA's requests were cut 200,000 pleted rounds, CMP operations are going tons, largely because of a recommended along smoothly. shift of certain British Empire orders There were several significant changes to Canada, which now has excess ingot in procedure. Building contractors capacity. (This cut, however, was more will get their materials for WPB-ap- than offset in PAC, as previously not- proved construction and for NHA's hous- ed.) OWU's supplementary programs were ing projects in the same way that man- screened out and reserved for later re- ufacturers now get their maintenance, consideration. The cuts in OCR's stated repair, and operating supplies-by self- requirements reflect the developing WPB assignment of allotment numbers. To policy on reconversion. Steel was al- cover these orders, special reserves lotted only for such resumption and ex- for construction were established. ODT pansions of civilian production as had and OWU requirements for maintenance, already been approved by relaxations repairs, and operating supplies have of L and M orders or by other WPB ac- also been placed in special reserves, tions. In all, Program Bureau aggregate and will henceforth be handled like cuts were the smallest ever-an indica- other orders for MRO supplies. tion thatafter three and one-half com- More important, the Requirements CONFIDENTIAL 12 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS Committee announced that it might con- cost of large-scale production in Latin sider supplementary allotments to the America cannot be measured at this time. nonmilitary claimants. Heretofore, Moreover, quinine may have to meet strong supplementary allotments have been made competition from such synthetic anti- only for urgent military programs. Read- malarials as atabrine, which now sells iness to make supplementary allotments for less than half as much. tended to reduce the pressures from ci- (Coordinator of Inter-American Affairs, vilian agencies for larger quotas. Research Division) Popular Misconceptions REPORTS ON REPORTS Only one person out of five realizes When Recruiting Fails that we are nearing the limit of produc- All major warring countries-Great tion from our petroleum resources: the Britain, Russia, and Germany-have in- majority attribute the need for gas ra- troduced national service measures when tioning not to short supplies but to the voluntary recruiting has failed to meet needs of the armed forces, transportation war production needs. Basic provisions, difficulties, and rubber conservation. according to Essentials of National Another important informational gap, Service Legislation (confidential: po. according to Acceptance and Knowledge 45) are: (1) authority to collect labor- of Gas Rationing (restricted: pp. 21), market information from employers and concerns car-sharing: only 17% of car workers and to inspect plant labor uti- owners know that this is nearly always lization, (2) control of hirings and a requisite for extra rations. E.O. 11652, Sec. 3(E) and 5(D) or (E) Commerce Dept. Letter, 11-15-72 By RHP, Date MAR 1973 separations, (3) power toregister work- (Office of War Information, Bureau of ers and direct or transfer them into Special Services) DECLASSIFIED essential employment. Such legislation establishes administrative standards Subcontracts There and Here and safeguards both for workers (i.e., British procurement agencies have against substandard conditions) and been regulating subcontracts and chen- employers (i.e., against incompetence neling them into areas of labor surplus, and absenteeism). while most U.S. prime contractors have (War Manpower Commission, Reports and been free to let subcontracts without Analysis Service) regard for tight labor markets. Reg- ulation of the Subcontractor in a Par Quinine Question Production Program (confidential: pp.4) U.S. technical and financial assist- suggests collecting information as needed ance has considerably increased Latin on substantial subcontracts 80 that the American production of cinchona bark: placing (and cutting back) of subcon- before the war 90% of the world's sun- tracts can be handled without needless ply came from the Netherland Indies. and costly labor dislocation. However, the postwar prospects of the (War Manpower Commission, Reports and industry are uncertain, reports Cinchona Analysis Service) (restricted: pp. 16). For the last 30 years the price of quinine has been [This record is an attempt to select from the many controlled by the Kina Bureau, A Neth- documents coming to the attention of WAR PROGRESS those studies which would be of most interest to erlands cartel, which kept it too high readers. The list is by no means comprehensive. and no attempt has been made to evaluate reports for for most of the world's population, but accuracy. Whether reports are available depends on the policy of each individual agency.] CONFIDENTIAL War Progress is loaned to you for official use. It contains CONFIDENTIAL information affecting the security of the United States. Revelation of its contents in any manner to unauthorized persons is prohibited by the Espionage Act. OFFICIAL RULES for its CUSTODY (1) Not to permit information from any copy in their custody to become available to anyone except a Government employee under their immediate supervision who will be bound by the restrictions hereby agreed to and who requires access to WAR PROGRESS in connection with his official duties. (2) To keep all copies In a securely locked container when not actually in use. (3) Not to incorporate information from WAR PROGRESS in any record unless the use of such record is restricted as if the record were itself a copy of WAR PROGRESS. (4) To give prior written notice of any change of address. (5) On written request, or before separation from the Govern- ment position which entitles them to receive WAR PRO- GRESS, to return all copies charged to their account. WAR PROGRESS Disclosure Punishable Under Espionage Act DKL LASSIFIED NO. 11652, Sec. S(R) and 8(D) or on Decemerce Dept. Letter, 11-16-78 R RHP, 14 1973 Economic Data Special Articles The President 1 WAR PROGRESS Now Board Production 6.7 1 Disclosure Punishable Under Espionage Act R.O. 11662, DECLASSIFIED Sec. 3(E) and 6(D) or (ii) By RHP, Date Commerce Dept. Letter, 11-15-72 Production Rises Slightly UNRRA Plans for the Unknown X 4966 Radar - - A New-Old Program X x4735 x4675 Number 187 April 15, 1944 WAR PROGRESS Prepared in the War Production Board Donald M. Nelson, Chairman War Progress is a confidential report designed to provide a coordinated and continuing picture of the overail war program for the various war agencies. To this end, it presents, analyzes, and interprets basic statistical and economic information, and from time to time examines the pros and cons of controversial questions. Although War Progress is an official publication of the War Production Board, statements in it are not to be construed as expressing official attitudes of the Board as a whole, or even of individual members. Conclusions, whenever reached, should be considered editorial conclusions. War Progress is prepared in the Bureau of Planning and Statistics (Stacy May, Director) by the Munitions Branch (Morris A. Copeland, Chief). Editorial Staff Editor, Joseph A. Livingston; Associates: Thomas A. Falco, Roy T. Frye (drafting), Winona Hibbard Morris Katz, Chester L. Kieffer, John C. Leeser, Herbert J. Muller, J.S. Werking (production). Contributors Joseph A. Zettler ( munitions ), William F, Butler (aircraft). J. Ronald Meiklejoho (communications and electronics), Herbert Stein ( economics ). This report contains CONFIDENTIAL information affecting the defense of the United States. See inside back cover for rules of custody. CONFIDENTIAL NUMBER 187 WAR PROGRESS APRIL 15, 1944 Does March Usher in Uptrend? Munitions output rises 2% after three-month splits into two pieces-rising programs drop. Expanding programs fail to make (aircraft, airborne radar, heavy-heavy schedule; declining ones overshoot mark. trucks, naval combatant ships, landing Employment shrinkage raises questions. craft, etc.) and falling programs (most ground army items, destroyer escort MARCH was one of those months which it's vessels, Liberty ships, radio, etc. ). The hard to say anything about. Munitions rising programs are due to rise 25% by production was up 2%: the schedule called the end of the year. That's not easy for arise of 4%. But since output re- (chart, below). cently has consistently fallen somewhat short of the program, that's hardly news. NOT UP HIGH ENOUGH The upturn in March broke a three- Last month, the increase in these- month downtrend. That's hardly news "up" programs was 6%, but the required either. The schedules called for de- gain was 8%. Aircraft came through with creases in January and February. March one of its best performances, falling merely ushered in a rising trend in short of schedule by only 1%. And on schedules from now through the summer. an airframe-weight basis, planes deliv- The real question is whether future gains ered exceeded schedule (WP-Apr8'44, p8). will come up to those schedules. But radar missed schedule by 5%. It's true that the increases are com- As might be expected, declining pro- paratively small. However, the program grams did slightly better than schedule THE PRODUCTION JOB AHEAD Though some munitions programs decline (most ground army items, DEs, Libertys, etc.), the bulk (aircraft, radar, landing vessels, etc.) rise. 6000 6000 Munitions Production Total 4000 4000 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS Up Programs MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2000 2000 Down Programs o o J F M A M J J A 5 o N o J F M A M J J A S o N D 1943 1944 Note: Actual through February; March preliminary. March I schedule therecfter, WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 2 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS -evidence that there's always & lag some (especially women) even quit the between a cutback on paper and a cutback labor market. And that makes it just in the plant. What's significant, how- that much harder to recruit workers when ever, is that rising programs now con- necessary to meet the rising schedules. stitute about four-fifths of the total. These programs have gone up steadily, TRENDS MAY BE MIXED while declining programs have been drop- There is another consideration. WAR ping steadily. (The divergence is sim- PROGRESS has noted in the past the trend ilar to that between munitions and con- toward increased efficiency inmunitions structionayear ago. Munitions sched- industries. That trend is marked in ules were rising sharply, while con- the rising aircraft partic- struction was going down.) Here are ularly. But some decline in productivity the figures: per worker is to be expected indeclining programs-lower volume often results in Rising Falling lower output per man. Programs Programs Total As yet it is too early to draw posi- (millions of dollars) tive conclusions. The rising efficiency 1943 in the "up" programs may more than com- November $3,990 $1,650 $5,640 pensate for declining efficiency in December 4,050 1,570 5,620 "down" programs. The last five months 1944 are fairly suggestive: munitions pro- January 4,080 1,340 5,420 duction dropped 3%; munitions employment February.. 4,055 1,325 5,380 dropped 4%. Thus there was some increase March (p) 4,280 1,190 5,470 in output per worker. But there's no (p) Preliminary. getting away from the fact that, as This divergence poses a real problem, schedules declined, so did the number which cannot yet be fully evaluated. of workers. And it's going to be hard Layoffs are bound to continue in the de- to get those workers back into munitions clining programs, and layoffs result in plants, if and when they're needed. evaporation of munitions workers (WP- Apr8'44,p4). Instead of finding war. Aircraft jobs, some drift into civilian-type oc- In March, aircraft carried the month cupations with a peacetime permanence; -an old story. At $1,746,000,000, out- put of airframes, engines, propellers, gliders, spare parts, etc. was 8% ahead IN THIS ISSUE: of February. And as noted in WAR PROG- DOES MARCH USHER IN UPTREND? 1 RESS last week, the 9,117 planes ac- cepted brought an airframe-weight gain PRODUCTION PROGRESS PRELIMINARY 5 of 9%, the best since May's 10% rise over April in 1943. UNRRA PREPARES FOR THE UNKNOWN 7 PROGRAM NOW FLEXIBLE KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK 9 This performance is a further indi- cation that the plane program has come NEW FOCUSES 10 to maturity. In contrast to last year, FOIL FOR RADAR 10 when lags behind schedule were general, it is no longer necessary for the Joint CONFIDENTIAL APRIL 15, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL ... 3 Aircraft Committee to concentrate on less needed or obsolete types. In short, downward revisions each month. There the program isnow far beyond the stage is now sufficient flexibility to permit where virtually every model is a must. interim changes in schedules 80 as to Trainer schedules make the point. boost the output of high-preference During the year to date, they've been tactical models-this at the expense of cut 15% in numbers, with this result: MIXED MOVEMENTS IN MUNITIONS Aircraft scores another big gain in March; ground army items generally down. Radar, landing vessels miss schedule. 2500 1500 Aircraft Wor Construction (government financed) Value delivered Volue delivered 2000 1000 1500 Total 500 Airfromes, Engines, 1000 o Propellers JFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONO 1943 1944 500 1000 Combat and Motor Vehicles Airplane Spare Ports Value delivered Total o 500 JFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASOND Automotive Vehicles 1943 1944 and Tractors MILLIONS OF DOLLARS Combat Vehicles o 1500 FMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASOND Ships (including maintenance) 1943 1944 Volue delivered MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1000 Total 1000 Ammunition Volue delivered Total 500 Maritime 500 Artillery, Mortors, Small Arms Rocket Lounchers, Novy Combatont (under 20mm) ASF Landing Vessels o o JFMAMJ J ASONDJFMAMJJASONO JFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASOND 1943 1944 1943 1944 1000 1000 Communication and Electronic Equipment Guns and Fire Control Volue delivered Volue delivered 500 500 Total Total Rodio Artillery, Mortors, Small Arms Rocket Lounchers, ASF (under 20mm) Rodor WHW o o JFMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJJASOND JFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONO 1943 1944 1943 1944 Note: Actual through February, March preliminary, March I schedule thereofter. WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 4 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS At Downey, Calif., Consolidated Vultee In numbers as well as airframe weight, will wind up production of the Valiant there is only a nominel change from the basic trainer in May instead of August, original version in January. But in and shift to P-38 Lightning subassemblies individual groups and models, the changes sooner than originally planned. At Mid- re-emphasize the trend toward quality dletown, Ohio, Aeronca's primary-trainer rather than quantity. That trend will and communications capacity is being be underlined in the new W-10 airplane adapted to subassemblies for the Light- schedule due next week. ning and Commando programs. And at Hagerstown, Md., Fairchild will close Army Ordnance out trainer output this month instead of Production of ground army munitions in December and devote its entire capac- again indicates that it is as hard to ity to building cargo planes, notably cut down production to fit declining the C-82, new 2-engined heavy transport. schedules as it was (in the early days of the war) to step up output to meet MORE CURTAIN CALLS sharply rising schedules. At Consolidated Vultee, San Diego, Though ground army munitions dropped the B-24 Liberator bows to the B-32 su- below the billion-a-month mark in March perbomber. Because Liberator losses have to about $975,000,000, they should have run belowexpectations and because B-24 declined to $950,000,000. The percent- schedules at Ford, Willow Run, and Con- age decline was 7%; the schedule called solidated Vultee, Fort Worth, have been for 10%. raised, the San Diego plant will be Noteworthy features were: able to stop work on the Liberator in Deliveries of heavy-heavy trucks in- April, 1945, and switch facilities to creased 12%, running ahead of schedule the superbomber. for the second successive month: 3,028 Here's an analogous case in reverse. came off the assembly line, as against When thé Navy's SB2C Helldiver started 2,958 in February. But the real test coming through nicely at the once-laggard is yet to come. Schedules increase rap- Curtiss plant in Columbus, the schedule idly from here on. was boosted from about 2,750 to more than 3,000; and it became possible to TRACTORS ON SCHEDULE BUT. cut back the program from the Navy's Tractors, another accelerating pro- SBD Dauntless-a less desirable light gram, just made schedule. However, in bomber-at Douglas, El Segundo. this case schedules are based upon pro- duction feasibility: they run far below IN AGAIN, OUT AGAIN stated military requirements. And then there's the case of Lock- Output of heavy-artillery ammunition heed's PV-2 Harpoon natrol bomber. It (155mm. and up) ran about 25% ahead of made its debut last month, superseding schedule, inanticipation of a boost in the PV-1 Ventura (WP-Apr8'44, p9).- But Army requirements. (Battle experience already the schedule has been revised in Italy has indicated a far greater so that the Harpoon, in turn, will be expenditure of ammunition than origi- superseded by a much larger and more nally planned.) Requirements for spare powerful model, the P2V, late next year. gun barrels for 155s, 240s, and 8-inch On an overall basis, revisions in the guns are also slated to be increased. W-9 schedule have not been significant. Carried along by a big rise in tank CONFIDENTIAL APRIL 15, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL ... 5 ioduction, combat vehicle output in 76mm. guns were made, as against 266 March was up 12% and beat schedule by scheduled: by the end of the year, the 3%. Tank deliveries probably hit a bot- schedule reaches 800 a month. Only 55 tom the previous month. However, the M4s mounting the 105mm. howitzer were switchover in M4 medium tanks to 76mm. delivered, as against 100 scheduled: a guns and 105mm. howitzers isnot moving peak of 270 per month is called for dur- on schedule. Last month 221 M4s with ing the summer. Incidentally, the M4 PRODUCTION PROGRESS - Preliminary Value delivered or put in place - millions of dollars. March February % March % Deviation * March Prelim Preliminary Actual Change Schedule vs. Schedule MUNITIONS AND WAR CONSTRUCTION $5,730 $5,646 + 15 $5,822 - & TOTAL MUNITIONS 5,470 2,376 . 2 5,562 = 2 Aircraft 1,745 1,623 . 5 1,765 - 1 Total airfromes, engines, propellers 1,341 1,238 . 8 1,342 nil Airplane spore ports 366 347 - 5 384 . 5 Other aircraft and equipment (excl. commun.) 38 38 0 39 - 3 Ships (incl. maintenance) 1,150 1,134 1 1,220 - 6 Novy 595 614 - 3 673 -12 Combotant 284 327 -13 290 - 2 Londing Vessels 200 172 +16 220 9 Other 111 115 - 3 163 -32 , Moritime 388 351 +11 376 3 Cargo and supply 290 258 -12 286 1 Other 98 93 - 5 90 9 Army Vessels 42 46 - 9 46 - 9 Ship Maintenance and Repoir 125 123 - 2 125 + Guns and Fire Control 295 321 - 8 305 - 3 Small orms (under 20mm.) 70 73 - la 71 - 1 Artillery, mortors, rocket launchers-ASF 53 65 -18 58 - 9 Fire control and seorchlight (excl. Rodor) 58 65 -11 59 - 2 Novol guns and other 114 118 - 3 117 - 3 Ammunition 515 532 - 3 508 - 1 Small orms (under 20mm) 64 77 -17 61 . 5 Artillery, mortors, rocket lounchers-ASF 172 173 1 161 7 Aeriol bombs ASF 97 95 - 2 90 8 Novol ommunition and other 182 187 - 3 196 - 7 Combot and Motor Vehicles 420 407 . 3 408 3 Combot vehicles 134 120 +12 130 3 Motor corriages for SP guns 34 NO -15 30 +13 Automotive vehicles and tractors 252 247 . 2 248 2 Communication and Electronic Equipment 380 379 nil 384 - 1 Rodio 202 201 all 197 . 3 Rodor 109 108 1 115 , All other $ TO -1 72 - E Other Equipment and Supplies 965 980 2 972 - 1 WAR CONSTRUCTION (GOV'T. FINANCED) 260 270 -4 260 + - As of February 1 for Construction: as of March 1 for all others, , Schedule used for preliminary. CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS 6 CONFIDENTIAL with a 75mm. gun ran far ahead of sched- doubling by June. Ground radar declined ule-439 were delivered, versus 325 about as planned. called for. Aerial bomb output was up 2% over Merchant Ships February and beat schedule 8%. Produc- The Maritime program snapped out of tion of the 23-pound fragmentation (with its two-month slump. March deliveries and without parachute) reached an all- of 1,549,000 deadweight tons (prelimi- time high of 1,070,000, nearly double nary) were 12% over February, 28% over the February output. This was as sched- January, and beat schedule by 2%. uled, but this month the schedule drops All major types exceeded the program sharply to 270,000. The 23-pounder is with the exception of the Victory ship, used against personnel and light mate- which is just getting under way. Four riel targets. Many are equipped with were completed last month-two fewer parachutes to enable planes to fly low, than called for. The first one came drop their bombs and get away before the through in February. On the other hand, explosion. They are expected to play the 83 Libertys completed were one over an important role in the invasion. Pro- schedule, five over February: but from duction of the 1,000-ton GP bomb exceeded now on this program is due to decline 42,000, as against a schedule of 15,000. to a monthly total of 44 in September. Military-type ships as a whole were Signal Equipment also up to schedule. The two combat Communication and electronic equip- loaders (AKAs) delivered make a total ment, according to preliminary esti- of three for this new program to date. mates, continued at the February level Minor-type ships ran 11% behind schedule. of production but fell 1% short of the rising schedule. Radio, a declining Naval Ships program, overshot its mark by 3%. Other- Navy shipbuilding in March held on wise the deficit would have been greater, an even keel. Deliveries of 209,000 for the all-important radar program was displacement tons (preliminary) were the 5% below schedule. This was due to the same as in February, but 22% behind failure of the new countermeasure equip- schedule. Most of the deficit was in ment (designed to "jam" enemy radar landing vessels, especially the LSTs devices) to come through. (WP-Apr8'44,pl0). However, smaller For example, the schedule for AN/APQ-9 landing craft came through, and the group equipment (in the program for the first as a whole jumped 27% over February: time) called for 135 sets but none was Deliv- % Change From delivered. AN/APQ-2 (in the program eries Feb. Scned. since January) did onlya little better; All combatants. 63,000 -21% -14% 23 sets were delivered out of 250 sched- Landing vessels 98,000 +27 -30 uled. Another delinquent was AN/APT-1 Patrol & mine.. 11,000 -8 nil equipment: 126 sets were delivered, Aux., all other 37,000 -5 -16 against a schedule of 175. The chief Total 209,000 nil -22 difficulty in all three instances was In addition, the Navy converted 19 in getting transformers. ships lastmonth, but 41 were scheduled. All these sets were for the Army De-emphasis on destroyer escorts airborne program, and schedules rise explains the 14% deficit in combatant steeply in the next few months, nearly ships. Only 21 DEs were completed in- CONFIDENTIAL APRIL 15, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL 7 stead of the 32 called for. The impor- were slated for last month. However, tant submarine program, after a series big doings lie immediately ahead: 305,- of laggard months, beat schedule with 000 tons are scheduled in April and a nine delivered, as against a first-of- peak of 381,000 tons in May-almost & the-month goal of seven. The Maritime 90% jump over March deliveries. Included Commission completed five aircraft car- are a 27,000-ton carrier this month and rier escorts for the Navy. a 45,000-ton battleship and another No battleships, carriers, or cruisers 27,000-ton carrier in May. UNRRA Prepares for the Unknown United Nations set up machinery to provide have to assist some or all other lib- relief for liberated countries after Army erated areas. moves out. Will act only on invitation; Hence no exact estimates of require- wont undertake reconstruction. ments can be drawn up, no definite pro- grams laid out. Yet one definite fact GERMANY AND JAPAN have overrun some 35 emerges: the necessary machinery is be- countries and hundreds of islands, the ing set up beforehand-as it was not homes of more than 500,000,000 people. in the last war. UNRRA is already a Of these, perhaps 50,000,000 have been functioning organization, with broad uprooted and displaced, the rest more policies laid down and approved by the or less impoverished. This has given 44 member countries. rise to the paraphrase that never be- fore in the field of human conflict have FINANCING ARRANGEMENTS so many been despoiled in so few years. UNRRA will have an operating fund It also gives a rough idea of the mag- of from $2,000,000,000 to $2,500,000,000, nitude of the job that lies ahead for built up by recommended contributions the United Nations Relief and Rehabili- of 1% of the national income of unoc- tation Administration-a job for which cupied member countries for the year UNRRA has to plan largely in the dark. ending June, 1943. (Enemy-occupied The Army will be responsible for re- countries are expected, however, to pay lief and rehabilitation in liberated their assessed share of administrative areas for about the first six months: expenses.) The U.S. contribution-$l,- its plans are necessarily tentative, 350,000,000-has been approved but not dependent upon when and how Germany and yet appropriated by Congress. The Brit- Japan fall, whether or not the earth ish Commonwealth quota will make upmost is scorched. Right now Europe 18 the of the rest of the fund. Some countries main consideration (WP-Aprl'44,p8). have already made full or partial pay- UNRRA will take over only when it is ments toward UNRRA's administrative invited by either the Army or the gov- expenses: the Director General has been ernment of a liberated area, only to the voted a budget of $10,000,000 for 1944. extent that it is asked to help. Right Of the postwar three Rs-relief, re- now it can't know (1) just when it may habilitation, reconstruction-UNRRA's have to assist a given country, (2) just concern will berelief: food, medicine, what the needs of the country will be, fuel, clothing, emergency shelter. It or (3) whether it will simultaneously will also provide such rehabilitation CONFIDENTIAL 8 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS supplies as may reduce relief require- Foreign Economic Administration, in ac- ments; thus a shipload of seed, ferti- cordance with its policy of making use lizer, farm machinery, industrial ma- of established national agencies when- chinery and repair parts, etc. might ever possible. It will dono buying or save a dozen shiploads of food later contracting itself. The relationship on. But UNRRA is not to tackle the between UNRRA and FEA has not yet been long-range problems of reconstruction. worked out in detail-for example, the It has a suicidal lease on life. It's question of to what extent, if any, FEA supposed towork itself out of a job as will détermine the specifications of soon as possible. relief goods. However, they are already cooperating on basic plans. EMERGENCY JOBS ONLY Two regional committees-one for Thus it may help torepair hospitals, Europe, one for the Far East-will ad- possibly some vital factories; but it vise UNRRA's Director General on re- won't rebuild cities. Similarly, though quirements and policies. But UNRRA will will it will provide food and emergency shel- always operate under agreements with ter for millions of refugees, it won't the recognized governments of liberated take on the job of repatriating them. areas, and provide only the assistance This will be handled by such agencies they request. It might simply arrange as the Intergovernmental Committee on to have relief supplies shipped into a Refugees. country: it might also be asked to super- For its supplies, UNRRA will deal vise their distribution. Holland, for with the Combined Production and Re- example, may want no administrative help sources Board, Combined Food Board, and but may ask for the services of sanita- the other U.S.-U.K. boards. The boards tion engineers, plague fighters, or will determine (1) whether to grant other technicians. Other countries, UNRRA's requests in whole or in part and such as Greece and China, are pretty (2) fromwhich countries supplies should sure to need all kinds of assistance. be drawn. UNRRA has already put in re- quests for allocations of foodstuffs, NOT A SALVATION ARMY textiles, clothing, shoes, leather, UNRRA is not designed to be a world soap, and fertilizers. soup kitchen, however. All liberated Such allocations will not mean stock- areas will be expected to pay for relief piles for UNRRA's exclusive use. They imports to the extent of their ability; represent simply potential claims or those unable to pay in suitable foreign drafts on supplies, which meanwhile exchange will turn over at least part might be lifted by the Army for relief of the local currency they receive from purposes. UNRRA's object is to get its the sale of such imports. Although com- probable needs before the boards well munal feeding and welfare services will in advance. With overcoats, for example, often be necessary, especially for the it takes about six months from the time many refugees, relief supplies will or- an allocation is granted until they're dinarily be distributed through normal on hangers in warehouses-and you don't trade channels, under regulations pre- want to have overcoats reaching a lib- scribed by the local governments. erated area in late spring. No definite arrangements have yet To procure supplies in the U.S., been made with the Russians regarding UNRRA presumably will depend on the areas likely to be liberated by them- CONFIDENTIAL APRIL 15, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL 9 KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK Lotest Preceding Month 6 Months Year Week Week Ago Ago Ago Wor progrom-Checks paid (millions of dollors) 1,838 1,594 1,836 1,762 1,452 Wor bond soles - E,F,G (millions of dollars) 155 239 101 662 182 Money in circulation (millions of dollars) 21,191 21,037 20,963 18,883 16,353 Wholesole prices (1926=100) All commodities 103.7' 103.6' 103.4' 102.8 103.5 Form products 124.1° 123.9' 123.4' 122.7 124.3 Foods 105.0 104.2 104.6 104.9 107.9 All other 98.5" 98.3° 98.2' 97.5 96.7 Petroleum: Total U.S. stocks* (thous ands of borrels) 412,388 413,122 415,187 423.676 437,170 Total Eost Coost stocks" (thousands of borrels) 56,770 55,844 55,846 61,483 43,381 Eost Coast receipts (thousands of borrels, doily overage) 1,733 1,750 1,711 1,508 1,331 Bituminous cool production (thousands of short tons, daily overoge) 2,054* 1,979 2,008 2,016 2,027 Steel operations (% of capacity) 98.7 99.5 99.1 102.2 98.8 Freight cors unlooded for export, excluding grain (daily overoge) Atlontic Coost ports 3,201 3,457 2,934 2,462 1,617 Gulf Coost ports 336 452 444 330 340 Pocific Coast ports 1,450 1,365 1,454 1,290 1,072 Department store soles (% change from o year ago) +23 +32 +11 +9 +28 p. preliminary *excludes stocks owned by the militory. Czechoslovakia and Poland, for example- requests directly to the combined boards, but presumably UNRRA will operate under UNRRA will present its recommendations the same conditions as elsewhere. Op- or objections. erations in ex-enemy areas, such as A further complication is the neces- Rumania and Bulgaria, are not precluded sity for redistributing Europe's own but will require the approval of the supplies within and between liberated UNRRA council, the military command, areas. UNRRA will seek tokeep informed and the established authority in the of such transactions, but will have no area. These areas will be required to direct control over them. pay for all relief supplies. Altogether, the very limits to UNRRA's responsibility and authority will also DECIDING WHO GETS WHAT create its problems. It is responsible The main problems, however, will stem to the 44 member governments: it must from limited supplies and shipping space. cooperate constantly with the armed UNRRA's aim is a just distribution on forces, war agencies, local governments. the basis of need, not ability to pay. For UNRRA is A. United Nations experi- It must also avoid overallotting to the ment: the first operating organization countries first liberated: too-high re- -not another conference or committee- lief standards for first-comers might established to carry out a world-wide result in too-low standards for other job through concerted action. As such, countries. Hence UNRRA is expected to it is assured of a paragraph in world act as A clearing house. When countries history. If it succeeds, it will be able to pay for relief supplies submit worth volumes. CONFIDENTIAL 10 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS New Focuses The advance in radar follows a famil- iar pattern; as soon as one weapon is perfected, another is introduced to com- Four out of every five radar devices in '44 bat it. Basic principles, of course, are program are recent developments; obso- known toall belligerents. The Germans lescence plays hob with old designs. Thats and Japanese employ radar (although their why the job is difficult. equipment is generally believed inferior RADAR has been in the U.S. munitions to Britain's and this country's). Much programsince the start of the war; yet of the U.S. production emphasis today it's a new program just the same. Four is on countermeasure equipment-devices out of every five items of equipment not only to enemy radar, but also to on the schedule this year were not made jam their jamming equipment. in 1943. Reason: Ahighrate of obso- Because it is a youthful, expanding lescence and a high rate of creation- program and because improvements are old models change; new uses develop. constant, radar continues as one of the Radar (for RAdio Detection And Rang- country's most difficult production jobs. ing) was utilized in the early days of Army and Navy schedules this year are up the war largely as a ship- and plane- 53% to $1,500,000,000; this is four times detection device. A refinement made it the 1942 output and 10 times 1941's. possible for the spotted friendly ship Yet radar accounts for only one-third of or plane to flash back an automatic total communication and electronic equip- countersign; this device is known as IFF-Identification, Friend or Foe. Also early in the game, radar was used as a FOIL FOR RADAR fire-control device (WP-July2'43,p5)- it reveals the distance and direction ALUMINUM FOIL production in the Unit- of reflecting objects. ed States is nearly seven times great- er than it was a year ago. Reason: CONSTANT INNOVATIONS When cut into small strips called Discoveries are now constantly being chaff or windrow (resembling Christ- made, and these mean the development of mas-tree tinsel) and dropped from new devices-many sohighly secret that raiding aircraft, it confuses enemy technicians working on them don't know defenses. Radar devices can't sep- their purposes. Thus, it is now pos- arate the planes from the chaff. sible toaim guns automatically through Monthly output of foil is now smoke and clouds; to drop paratroopers about 2,000,000 pounds, as against on a selected spot in the dark; to in- 300,000 pounds a year ago. Foil pro- tercept night fighters; todeposit bombs duction is no problem-there is ex- accurately fromhigh-speed bombers: etc. cess rolling-mill capacity. Much of Expenditures for radar development the chaff is mounted with paper, but ($30,000,000 for 1944) top the 18-cat- there is plenty of capacity for this. egory list of the Office of Scientific However, there is a shortage of ma- Research and Development. Second is chines for cutting the foil into chaff. subsurface warfare ($19,000,000). Radar The chaff has a top priority rating doesn't penetrate water, consequently along with capacitors for radar and can't be used against submerged subma- other electronic equipment. rines, but it spots them on the surface. The Germans also use it. CONFIDENTIAL APRIL 15, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL ... II SEEING EYES FOR THE ARMY AND NAVY This year's radar program calls for a 53% rise. Army and Navy airborne more than double. Ground radar off (21%). 200 100 Total Rodor Army Ground Radar (Including Fire Control) I50 50 Actual Schedule 100 o J F M A M J J A $ 0 N 0 J F M A M J J A 5 1943 1944 Schedule 50 100 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS Actual Novy Airborne Radar MILLIONS OF DOLLARS o 50 JFMAM J J A 5 o N D J F M A M J J A S 1943 1944 Schedule Actual o 100 J F M A M J J A 5 o N 0 J F M A M - J A 5 Army Airborne Rador 1943 1944 50 50 Novy Ship Rador (Including Fire Control) Schedule Schedule Actual Actual o o J F M A M J J A 5 o N D J F M A M J J A S J F M A M J J A 5 o N 0 J F M A M J J A 5 1943 1944 1943 1944 And heres the year-to-year picture: 1944 1943 Novy Ship Army Ground lind E c) Rador lincl F C) 1942 Novy Airborne Army Airborne $356,000,000 $967,000,000 $1,477,000,000 Note: March preliminary. Schedules os of March I. WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 12 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS ment, which in turn accounts for 6% of all extent, procures for the Navy. The peak munitions. Airborne radar dominates and for Navy radar also comes in the third is expanding most rapidly: quarter, with shipborne radar and fire 1943 1944 control, as well as airborne, rising (millions) steadily until then. Total radar $967 $1,477 Radar production, especially of the Total airborne 385 854 newer airborne types, is highly special- Army radar 619 774 ized. The devices are complex, demanding Airborne 207 449 technical training and precise, pains- Ground & fire control 412 325 taking workmanship. Only about 15% of Navy radar 348 703 the radio companies are producing radar Airborne 178 405 sets; many well-known firms have de- Fire control 21 35 clined contracts, saying they don't have Ship, other 149 263 the trained men and equipment required. Radar production is scheduled to reach Moreover, many components-particularly a peak in the third quarter-17% higher certain types of resistors, transformers, than in the first quarter (chart, page generators, plugs, sockets, and tubes- 11). Beyond the third quarter, sched- arescarce. Radio, television, and other ules are incomplete. Although production electronic equipment are in competition of airborne radar this year is scheduled for them. to run 122% ahead of 1943, it will fall far short of stated Army and Navy require- CRITICAL MANPOWER PROBLEM ments. Production facilities and engi- Labor is an even more critical prob- neering developments simply haven't ex- lem. Radar is a young art and many of panded fast enough, and many programs the workers are young men between the (totaling $133,000,000) have had to be crucial ages of 21 and 26. Drafting of pushed over to 1945. skilled, irreplaceable workers would be a severe threat. In one large vacuum GROUND RADAR PAST PEAK tube company, for example, 60 of the 73 Ground radar is a declining program. engineers are under 26, and more than The peak was reached last December, and one-third of the 60 have already been although the dropso far has been gradual called for their preinduction examina- (chart, page 11), between now and the tions. And even though airborne radar third quarter it falls sharply from has been given a Selective Service ur- $146,000,000 to $36,000,000. It will gency rating, many workers undoubtedly account for only 22% of the total radar will be lost. program, as against 43% last year when Indollar value, airborne radar sched- output exceeded that of airborne. Ground ules are much lower than they were a radar is employed primarily in defense few months ago. As equipment emerges -antiaircraft, coastal defense, etc. from the experimental stage, costs go Because of the decline in ground down, and prices have been revised ac- radar, total radar production for the cordingly. Recent price revisions from Army will be up only 25% in 1944; Navy the Army Supply Program estimates of schedules will more than double. These last August in 10 different types of figures, however, are not fully indic- sets, for example, reduced the 1944 ative-the Navy procures some equipment airborne schedule by $467,000, 000, for the Army, and the Army, to a lesser or 35%. CONFIDENTIAL War Progress is loaned to you for official use. It contains CONFIDENTIAL information affecting the security of the United States. Revelation of its contents in any manner to unauthorized persons is prohibited by the Espionage Act. OFFICIAL RULES for its CUSTODY (1) Not to permit Information from any copy in their custody to become available to anyone except a Government employee under their immediate supervision who will be bound by the restrictions hereby agreed to and who requires access to WAR PROGRESS in connection with his official duties, (2) To keep all copies in a securely locked container when not actually in use. (3) Not to incorporate information from WAR PROGRESS in any record unless the use of such record is restricted as if the record were itself a copy of WAR PROGRESS. (4) To give prior written notice of any change of address. (5) On written request, or before separation from the Govern- ment position which entitles them to receive WAR PRO- GRESS, to return all copies charged to their account. WAR PROGRESS 1 Disclosure Punishable Under Espionage Act ED-11962, Bee, 3(8) and #(D) or as Bard 23-16-98 By REDA Help MAR 14 1973 Economic Data Special Articles The President 74/24/44 1 6.7. WAR PROGRESS Nar Production Board Confidential Disclosure Punishable Under Espionage Act By RHP, Latter, 11-14-78 5(D) or (it) Date MAR x4735 14675 Number 188 April 22, 1944 WAR PROGRESS Prepared in the War Production Board Donald M. Nelson, Chairman War Progress is a confidential report designed to provide a coordinated and continuing picture of the overal! war program for the various war agencies. To this end, it presents, analyzes, and interprets basic statistical and economic information, and from time to time examines the pros and cons of controversial questions. Although War Progress is an official publication of the War Production Board, statements in it are not to be construed as expressing official attitudes of the Board as a whole, or even of individual members. Conclusions, whenever reached, should be considered editorial conclusions. War Progress is prepared in the Bureau of Planning and Statistics (Stacy May, Director) by the Munitions Branch (Morris A: Copeland, Chief). Editorial Staff Editor, Joseph A. Livingston; Associates: Thomas A. Falco, Roy T. Frye (drafting), Winona Hibbard Morris Katz, Chester L. Kieffer, John C. Loeser, Herbert J. Muller, J.S. Werking (production). Contributors Joseph A. Zettler ( munitions ), William F, Butler (aircraft), J. Ronald Meiklejohe (communications and electronics), Herbert Stem (economics). This report contains CONFIDENTIAL information affecting the defense of the United States. See inside back cover for rules of custody. CONFIDENTIAL NUMBER 188 WAR PROGRESS APRIL 22, 1944 Getting Out from under L and M Orders Manufacturers appeals to WPB average 300 substantial scale, appeals have been a day; "hardship" is usual ground. Labor based increasingly on the easier posi- shortages cause most turndowns. Ruling tion of once-critical materials and the on Group I and II labor areas is poser. release of facilities from war work. And the decision has usually turned on THE CHANGING CHARACTER of war produc- labor. Thus, recent requests to manu- tion is neatly indicated by manufac- facture automobile parts were denied turers' appeals from War Production because plants were in shortage areas. Board L and M orders. And the sample But there are exceptions to the rule. is a big one; more than 300 cases come A few months ago, when a Chicago firm's up per day. contracts for gun parts were canceled, In the early months of the war-when itfiled a request toreturn to the man- stop-production rulings were being hur- ufacture of portable electric lamps for riedly issued-manufacturers usually civilians. Ordinarily, such an appeal asked for inventory relief. They were would not be granted in a Group I area. caught loaded with goods in process. But the company was able to show that For instance, when Order L-33 cut off it was slated for newmilitary contracts; production of portable electric lamps, meanwhile it stood to lose most of its the Consumers Durable Goods Division 135 workers if forced to shut down. was deluged with pleas from companies Manufacture of 25,000 lamps as a "fill- which had only final assembly work to in" was approved. do. Since no drain on critical metals was involved and since work already done BUSINESS AS URUSUAL would be wasted, the cutoff was postponed Competitive relationships of tentimes for three months. Here a whole indus- decide an appeal. Recently, a large try gained relief. manufacturer, anxious to get set for postwar markets, asked the Service Equip- PROXIES FOR GOVERNMENT ment Division for permission to make At about the same time, some manu- metal signs. No critical materials were facturers holding government contracts involved; nor was he in a tight labor for certain goods became proxies for area. When the manufacturer has essen- appeals. Because of restrictions, Board tial orders on hand, relaxations are of Economic Warfare contracts for pots, often granted; but in this case the ap- pans, kettles, buckles, etc. (for dis- pellant intended to dispatch salesmen tribution in North Africa and in neutral to bring in the orders. Since this was countries of Europe) were held up. The equal to "business as usual" for this manufacturers pleaded that the restric- manufacturer, the request was denied. tion interfered with this country's Then there's the case of a New York preclusive selling policy. City piano manufacturer who was winding Ever since last summer, when the Army up a contract for gliders and had labor first instituted program cutbacks on a and materials tospare. In common with CONFIDENTIAL 2 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS other producers, he asked permission to stitution of a once-critical material resume piano output. Since the summer to make a better product or save man- of 1942, when L-37-a halted production, hours or both. The volume of these has demand has piled up, particularly from been so great that many L and M orders those in a position to provide wide have been amended so as to give, in ef- community service: United Service Or- fect, blanket approval to such appeals ganizations, American Red Cross, reli- (WP-Apr8'44,p3). gious and educational institutions, and members of the armed services. Author- NICKEL SPECTACLES ization was granted, but was limited to The situation in spectacle frames 800 pianos, only 18% of his 1941 output is typical. The Safety and Technical -this to prevent the company from gain- Division has received numerous requests ing a competitive headstart on other to allow nickel instead of steel, which manufacturers lacking the materials or not only corrodes but also wears out manpower tomeet the New York Company's tools designed for work on softer nickel potential rate of piano production. and nickel-silver. So Order L-214 is now being amended to dispose of those SMALL JACK POT appeals. Appeals sometimes turn on distribu- As a result of the recent WPB ban tion. When amidwest auto parts company against expansion in civilian produc- asked to produce 600 hand-operated jacks tion in Group I and II labor areas, a for nonmilitary use, the appeal was ap- new factor enters the appeals equation. proved-the jacks were part of original Heretofore, appeals have been considered equipment for new tractors in the farm on a case-by-case basis, manpower being program. At the same time, however, weighed along with other factors. The another company's appeal to manufacture new ruling, however, would seem to pre- jacks for all comers was denied. clude such treatment for all requests Perhaps the most common appeal at in Group I regions and-save for excep- the present time is the one for resub- tional circumstances-for appeals in Group II areas as well. IN THIS ISSUE: PROGRAMS HELD UP GETTING OUT FROM UNDER L AND M ORDERS 1 Already several programs have been MIDMONTHLY PLANE TALLY: ON SCHEDULE 3 pulled up short by the new policy. Wid- est publicity has been given to the cut- NOW IT'S SHEETS AND PLATES IN STEEL 4 back in electric flatirons from 2,000,000 SUBS: 11% OF THE '44 COMBAT SHIP PROGRAM 7 to 200,000. But there are other cases. WAR PROGRESS NOTES A nonmilitary program for $11,000,000 9 of commercial laundry and dry-cleaning KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK 9 equipment for 1944 has been held up. FORD, DEARBORN, ENGINE OUTPUT LAGS 10 And 700 large floor-finishing machines, REPORTS ON REPORTS which are in great demand in airports, 11 aircraft modification centers, and war PAYROLLS vs. PRODUCTION 11 plants, can't be made as originally SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS 12 programmed: the manufacturers are lo- cated in Chicago and South Bend. The CONFIDENTIAL APRIL 22, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL 3 MIDMONTHLY PLANE TALLY: ON SCHEDULE PLANE production in the first 15 days the C-46 Commando transport; it cleared of April was about on schedule. Al- 32-twice as many as in the same half though the 4,095 planes accepted were of last month, but far short of the about 200, or 5%, behind the corre- 137 called for inApril. And the B-29 sponding period of last month, in Superfortress, which has been making total airframe weight they equaled it. schedule, may miss the goal of 75 this And in both number and weight output month; only 22 were accepted. is scheduled 3% under March, chiefly On the other hand, standard heavy because April has two fewer working bombers kept abreast of March, though days. slated to run 11% behind it. Ford, Fighter acceptances slightly out- Willow Run, is having another good numbered bombers-1,601 to 1,593-as month, with 159 Liberators accepted they did for the first time last month. already-37 more than in the first Within both categories, however, the half of March. story is familiar: a few trouble spots, Likewise Curtiss, Columbus, came some exceptional showings, but mostly through with 139 SB2C Helldivers, or good on-schedule performance. more than two-thirds of the 190 sched- Design changes have slowed up the uled for the month. Navy 1-engined P-51 Mustang, particularly at North bombers as a group, with 339 accept- American, Inglewood: only 130 Mustangs ances, were running 21%ahead of last were accepted in the 15-day period, month. as compared with the corresponding Production of the hard-to-make figure of 235 for March and a full- A-26 Invader is beginning to keep pace month schedule of 507. Curtiss, Buf- with the rising schedule. Seven were falo, continues to have trouble with accepted; 20 are due. machine, incidentally, is a laborsaver sion. But under the new policy the ex- in its own right. It sweeps, scrubs, tension would have to be denied. and cleans in one operation, reportedly Since the new policy was announced does the work of from 10 to 20 persons. 10 days ago, industry divisions have been swamped with letters, wires, and NEW ORGAN STOPS telephone calls. It was 1942 all over A variant of this involves a small again. Manufacturers from critical Chicago plant with only seven workers. labor areas all over the country wanted Around the turn of the current year, clarification. Each one could prove its appeal to produce 150 chaplains' "beyond a shadow of doubt" that his case reed organs in the first quarter was was an exception. It was evidence of approved. Because of production trouble, the difficulty of enforcing a sweeping only 20 of the instruments were com- regulation. When manufacturers com- pleted, with the balance in process plained that "you can't do that to us," (most of them more than 80% complete). many industry division men found them- Recently, the firm asked for an exten- selves saying, "but we have!" CONFIDENTIAL 4 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS Now It's Sheets and Plates in Steel However, it could be ingots that are short if of rolled products scheduled for deliv- prospective manpower losses are not re- ery in November and earlier had to carry placed. Pinch in flat-rolled products should over into December: 1,258,000 tons into ease after this quarter. January: 1,412,000 tons into February. The carryover into March dropped to 1,- RECENT relaxation of L and M orders to 366,000 tons, however: and with a record permit the re-use or increased use of output of plates, sheet, and strip in carbon steel in certain products-baby March, the carryover in April is ex- carriages, loose-leaf book parts, fur- pected to drop further. More than one- niture springs, etc.-has not imposed third of the carryover-550,000 tons- any great burden on furnaces or rolling is plates, sheet, and strip. The rest mills. The very nature of the products is distributed among tubing, bars, struc- assures that. Not until automobiles, tural shapes, etc. refrigerators, and similar products open up will civilian takings of steel LANDING CRAFT DEMANDS mount up. The current tightness in flat-rolled But the relaxations have created an products began to develop last November impression that steel is easy. That is when the Navy rushed through orders for not the case. 38,000 tons of plates for December de- livery for its greatly expanded landing FIRST-QUARTER RECORD craft program. This came on top of an Steel output is adequate to meet already heavily loaded mill schedule. presently authorized programs (though However, the plate situation is already manpower's an onrushing problem). Out- easing. First-quarter output-over 3,- put of ingots in the first three months 500,000 tons-set a record, and the of this year set a record-22,588,000 rolling mills went into the second quar- tons, as compared with 22,525,000 tons ter with only about a one-week carry- in the third quarter of 1943, the pre- over-300,000 tons. Moreover, the Mari- vious high. Ingot capacity is adequate time Commission's requirements, which -about 93,000,000 tons a year, as com- have run to 1,600,000 tons a quarter or pared with 86,570,000 at Pearl Harbor. a little under half the total output, In March the industry ran at slightly will drop sharply in the third quarter below capacity-98.4%. -probably to about 1,100,000 tons. This is because of the shift from Lib- TIGHTNESS IN ROLLING erty to Victory ships, with a decline However, rolling-mill facilities for in total construction. converting ingots into some finished or semifinished shapes and forms-such as NEW FACILITIES DUE plates, sheet, and strip-are tight. Still further, newrolling facilities Orders promised for delivery in one with a capacity of 255,000 tons a quar- month have had to be carried over into ter are scheduled to come in before July. the already heavily loaded schedules of As a result, some strip mills-with a the next month. Thus, 1,192,000 tons capacity of 100,000 tons a month-which CONFIDENTIAL APRIL 22, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL 5 have been rolling plates, are expected one-fourth of monthly shipments) into to be diverted to sheet rolling in the the second quarter. third quarter. This will take some of The squeeze on the mills will be the tightness out of the sheet and strip tighter during this quarter because of departments. the decision to package artillery shells Like plate, sheet and strip were in individual waterproof steel casings tight in the first quarter and will re- instead of paperboard as protection main tight this quarter. First-quarter against corrosion. These requirements, shipments-estimated at 2,800,000 tons unanticipated when the second-quarter -setarecord. Nevertheless, the roll- allotments were made, will add another ing mills are taking a carryover of 150,000 tons of sheet demand on the mills past-due orders of 250,000 tons (about in the second quarter. Diversion of MORE STEEL DESPITE FEWER WORKERS I. Employment in steel mills has been 2. But the workers are putting in more falling off, hours per week. 600 600 50 50 40 40 THOUSANDS OF EMPLOYEES 400 400 200 200 THOUSANDS OF EMPLOYEES AVERAGE HOURS PER WEEK 30 30 20 20 AVERAGE HOURS PER WEEK 10 IO o o o o 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 3. Result: man-hours have risen, 4. Boosting production. 25 25 8 B 20 20 6 6 MILLIONS OF MAN-HOURS PER WEEK 15 15 10 IO MILLIONS OF MAN-HOURS PER WEEK MILLIONS OF TONS 4 4 MILLIONS OF TONS 2 2 5 5 0 o o o 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 6 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS OUT OF THE ROLLING MILLS Increases in shipments of rolled carbon steel (plates, sheets, tubing, etc.) more than offset moderate drop in rolled alloy steel. Total rises. 200 200 (DAILY AVERAGE) Alloy Steel 150 150 THOUSANDS OF SHORT TONS PER DAY 100 100 Corbon Steel THOUSANDS OF SHORT TONS PER DAY 50 50 o o Apr May June July Aug. Sept. Oct Now Dec Jon. Feb. 1943 1944 WAR PROGRESS plate-rolling facilities should take up are 30,000 men between 18 and 26; 60,000 some of the load beginning in July. from 27 to 30; and 120,000 from 31 to The outlook for steel is clouded by 38. Some of these undoubtedly will prospective manpower shortages. Record shortly be in blue, green, or khaki. first-quarter production was achieved Making up the losses by hiring women in spite of a decrease in the labor force is not too feasible. Steel-like other in blast furnaces, steel works, and war industries-has been taking on more rolling mills from a peak of 549,000 women workers; at 50,000 they account workers in June, 1942, to less than for almost 10% of the workers. But 500,000 today. To keepsteel output at steelmaking is a man's job, and the in- high levels, the average work week has dustry is approaching the limit of re- been increased from 40 hours to 46 hours, placement of men by women. but this is just about the limit. Al- ready many men are putting in up to 16 OUTPUT MAY DROP hours a day; some are working seven days Moreover, training and experience a week to fill in vacancies in the reg- are required of workers. There is not ular working crews. one big labor pool from which men can be allocated to departments. There is MORE MANPOWER LOSSES some interchangeability in the unskilled The industry has lost 180,000 men- group, but a heater from the coke ovens about 30% of its present total force- cannot be assigned as a melter on an to the armed services, and it faces open hearth, nor can a carpenter be made further heavy losses. On the work rolls a mill roller. CONFIDENTIAL April 22, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL 7 If the overall requirements of claim+ As the steel situation shapes up to- ant agencies continue to run over 16,- day, manpower may limit output in the 000,000 product tons as in previous third quarter to between 90% and 95% of quarters, then output will fall short capacity. In that case, probable re- of requirements. quirements. could not be met. Subs: 11% of '44 Combat Ship Program Schedule calls for deliveries of 81 undersea put in place, deliveries have not been craft, as against 56 last year. However, coming through on schedule. The 1943 this years completions have lagged de- program as of January 1 called for 65 spite March record. Peak due in '45. submarines: only 56 were delivered. The lag has carried into this year. In IN THE ATTACKS on Japanese lines of January, four were delivered as against communications, U.S. submarines, to the five scheduled: in February, again date, have sunk 143 Japanese warships only four came through, though eight were and 624 noncombatant vessels-tankers, due. However, last month, against a goal transports, cargo carriers, tenders, etc. of seven, eight were finished. This was Nearly as many more are listed as dam- the highest one-month delivery total on aged or "probably sunk." record, andit is only one short of the And as the war in the Pacific pro- peak-nine-slated for this month and gresses toward a climax, an increasing December. The performance during 1943 number of subs are taking undersea bat- and 80 far this year is in contrast tle stations, fordeliveries have risen with 1942, when the deliveries ran con- consistently, viz.: 1941 11 SUB TOTALS 1942 34 1943 This year U-Boat deliveries will be 11% 56 of all combatants, against 7% in '43. And 81 are scheduled for this year: 25 25 109 for next year. The submarine program has been pro- 20 20 jected toward a 1945 peak. The value of work done will showup in peak deliveries late this year and next. Here's the log: Value Put Value of in Place Deliveries SUBMARINE DELIVERIES AS % OF COMBATANTS 15 15 (in millions) IO 10 1941 $125 $60 SUBMARINE DELIVERIES AS % OF COMBATANTS 1942 250 190 1943 380 315 5 5 1944 500 450 1945 500 610 o o Later 330 500 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 WAR PROGRESS However, despite the buildup in value CONFIDENTIAL 8 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS TO JAPAN: "BOTTOMS DOWN" March deliveries of U.S. submarines rise to record high. IO IO Submarine Deliveries 8 8 Schedule NUMBER OF SUBMARINES 6 6 4 4 NUMBER OF SUBMARINES Actual 2 2 o o Jon Feb Mor Apr. May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jon. Feb Mor Apr. May June July Aug Sept. Oct. Nov Dec 1943 1944 As of March I. WAR PROGRESS sistently either on or ahead of schedule. ord average building time-eight months As a means of keeping up construction, from keel to completion. the War Manpower Commission has included The Cramp Shipbuilding Company, Phil- key jobs on submarines among the defer- adelphia delivered its first sub last rable occupations for men under 26. month, taking 22 months. Future build- The submarine is assuming a larger ing time is expected to be cut down. size in naval ship deliveries. In 1943 The Electric Boat Company, Groton, it accounted for only 7% of the value Conn., contributed its usual two. The of all combat ships completed (from de- building time there is 12 months. The stroyer escorts up to battleships). other March delivery was made by the This year it is figured to rise to 11%, Manitowoc Shipbuilding Company, Mani- and next year to 19%. towoc, Wis. (average building time, 10 months). The Mare Island Navy Yard RECORD: EIGHT MONTHS (average building time, 11 months) was To date, most of the constructionhas not scheduled to complete a sub. It consistently been concentrated in five delivered one in February, none in Jan- shipyards-three on the East Coast, one uary. A sixth, the Boston Navy Yard, inland, and one on the Pacific Coast. is scheduled to deliver its first sub Last month the Portsmouth (N.H.) Navy in December. Yard established a record, completing Since 1941, deliveries have been four subs, as against its previous high limited toonly one type, of 1,526 dis- of three. This yard also holds the rec- placement tons, but this has been sub- CONFIDENTIAL APRIL 22, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL 9 ject to constant design changes. Now for condensers. To produce them would another larger and improved type, 1,576 have required three months. But a tele- tons, has come ínto the program and will phone call dug them out of idle inven- eventually replace the smaller type. tories in a few hours. Another elec- The first delivery is due in November. trical contractor needed 2,500 potenti- Submarines are diesel-propelled, ometers immediately to meet its produc- which places them in competition with tion schedule. A supply of the item was landing craft, trucks, construction ma- located in excess warehouse stocks of chinery, etc. Landing craft, of course, a contractor 50 miles away. Within 24 have top priority. hours, a sample was obtained, passed Announced American submarine losses laboratory tests, and the assembly line rose from five in 1942 to 11 in 1943. kept moving. And during the first three months of Those jobs were the work of the Com- this year they amounted to six. This ponents Recovery Section of WPB's Radio is evidence of the increasing effective- and Radar Division. The section's busi- ness of Japanese antisubmarine tactics. ness is to see that surplus stocks of critical radio and radar components- War Progress Notes resistors, capacitors, potentiometers, relays, etc.-return to the production PERIPATETIC PARTS line. It secures lists of components A PRIME contractor for Army radio equip- held by the Army, Navy, and prime con- ment needed 1,000,000 fastening eyelets tractors, and distributes these among KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK Lotest Preceding Month 6 Months Year Week Week Ago Ago Ago Wor program-Checks paid (millions of dollars) 1,912 1,838 1,878 1,600 1,462 Wor bond soles -E,F,G (millions of dollars) 170 155 161 470 195 Money in circulation (millions of dollors) 21,295 21,191 21,006 18,978 16,424 Wholesale prices (1926=100) All commodities 103.8" 103.7" 103.6' 102.9 103.5 Form products 124.5" 124.1' 124,5' 122.8 124.4 Foods 105.0 105.0 104.6 104.7 108.4 All Other 98.5" 98.5" 98,2" 97.5 96.8 Petroleum: Total U.S. stocks* (thousands of borrels) 410,489 412,338 414,225 422,569 436,544 Total East Coast stocks* (thousands of borrels) 56,732 56,770 54,751 62,791 43,568 East Coost receipts (thousands of borrels, daily average) 1,735 1,733 1,654 1,558 1,285 Bituminous coal production (thousands of short tons, daily average) 2,003' 2,086 2,035 2,008 2,067 Steel operations (% of copacity) 99.5 98.7 99.2 100.7 99.1 Freight cors unlooded for export, excluding grain (daily overage) Atlantic Coast ports 2,866 3,201 3,091 2,505 1,834 Gulf Coost ports 334 336 388 335 396 Pocific Coast ports 1,600 1,450 1,462 1,284 1,061 Depor tment store soles (% change from o year ago) -11 .23 +17 +13 +15 D. Prelim. E Revised Excludes stocks owned by the militory. CONFIDENTIAL 10 ... CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS FORD, DEARBORN, ENGINE OUTPUT LAGS Though March production of the Double Wasp hits new high, it falls 10% short of schedule. First-of-month schedule is yet to be made. 3000 3000 Deliveries of R2800 I-Stage Engines 2000 2000 NUMBER OF ENGINES Schedule NUMBER OF ENGINES 1000 1000 Actual o o J F M A M J J A S o N D J F M A M J J A S o N D 1943 1944 . First-of-month schedules through March, 1944, March Ischedule thereofter WAR PROGRESS contractors requiring components to March jumped 10% to 1,794, it was 10% fill orders. It acts as a broker-brings short of the goal of 2,000; yet sched- buyer and seller together. ules have been set back repeatedly. Dollar value of such recoveries- The Army is now dependent on Ford $750,000 since January 15-is relatively for its Double Wasps. Pratt & Whitney, small. More important, they (1) help East Hartford, has been turning out the Army and Navy get deliveries on ur- about 200 a month for Thunderbolts, but gent electronics contracts, (2) turn it is due to wind up production of them existing items back into production with this month. And though Pratt& Whitney's a saving of man-hours, machine time, and Kansas City plant is getting under way materials, and (3) make it unnecessary on them, practically all its engines to slap directives on already over- are slated to go into Navy planes. No crowded order boards in component pro- other plants are making this model. ducers' plants. MARKED-DOWN PLANES DOUBLE WASP TROUBLE AIRPLANES are getting less expensive. FORD, Dearborn, isstill having trouble Since August, 1943, the price of & B-29 with the R-2800 Double Wasp 1-stage Superfortress has been cut from $1,000,- aircraft engine (chart, above)-an 18- 000 to $670,000: a Flying Fortress from cylinder, 2,000hp job used in various $300,000 to $250,000: a Hellcat from important models, including the Thunder- $97,000 to $69,000. bolt, Commando, Invader, Marauder, Ven- And prices at different plants have tura, and Hellcat. Although output in become more nearly uniform. A Liberator CONFIDENTIAL APRIL 22, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL ... II built at North American, Dallas, cost and manpower had not yet become scarce. $360,000 last August; the same plane But by Pearl Harbor, payrolls had shot at Consolidated Vultee, San Diego, was upmuchfaster than production, and la- $271,000, or $89,000 less. Reason for bor costs per unit of output were up this spread was that North American was 17%above 1939. After that, costs rose just coming into production, but Con- slowly through 1942, but flattened out solidated Vultee was a veteran; it had last year. In November, both production already turned out more than 2,500 Lib- and payrolls turned down, but production erators. Now prices at both plants are went down faster than payrolls (chart, close together: $259,000 at North Amer- below). Result: Costs rose. ican, $236,000 at Consolidated Vultee. Mass production economies largely REPORTS ON REPORTS account for the downtrend. Other reasons are increased plant efficiency, more Home Front News accurate cost accounting, and closer Fuel and gasoline allowances still checks on costs by the procurement agen- hold the lead on all complaints concerned cies. Moreover, the decline has been with rationing, as indicated in House- accelerating since mid-1943. wives Report: March (restricted; pp. 14). The survey also reveals that scarcity THE RISE IN LABOR COSTS of clothing, especially for children, DURING 1939 and 1940, labor costs per remains high on the list of consumers' unit of factory output held steady. problems, and quality deterioration is Wage rates and prices were pretty stable particularly resented. However, com- PAYROLLS VS. PRODUCTION Since 1940, wages paid in manufacturing industries have risen faster than output. Recently, both payrolls and production have turned down. 400 400 300 300 Woges INDEX 1939=100 200 200 Production INDEX 1939*100 Wages per Unit Output 100 100 0 0 N JASONDJ , 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 12 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS Employment - Labor Turnover - - Expenditures - Sales - Transporation Same Some Lotest Preceding 2 Months 6 Months Year Month Month Month Month Ago Ago Ago 1939 1937 NONAGRIC. EMPLOYMENT-TOTAL 36,946' 37,123 37,257 38,227 38,115 28,836 n.a. Monufacturing Total 15,512' 15,738 15,827 16,179 15,958 9,787 Duroble goods 9,400 9,537 9,607 9,659 9,415 4,248 Nonduroble goods 6,112 ' 6,201 6,220 6,520 6,543 5.539 Government 5,854* 5,813 5,791 5,830 5,855 3,947 Other 15,580 15,572 15,639 16,218 16,302 15,102 n.a. LABOR TURNOVER IN MFG. INDUSTRIES (rate per hundred employees) All manufacturing Accessions 5.34' 6.47 5.19 7.62 7.87 3.06 4.71 Separations Total 6.47' 6,69 6.55 8.18 7.04 2.61 2.65 Quits 4.51' 4.60 4.38 6.30 4.65 0.64 1.19 Militory 0.49 0.53 0.50 0.67 1.23 a.a. a.a. Aircraft Quits 3.94' 4.33 3.86 5.67 3.71 0.86 2,23 Military 0.55* 0,62 0.48 0.79 1,66 a.a. n.a. Shipbuilding Quits 5.50 ° 6.10 5.93 7.76 5.90 0.66 Militory 0.85 0.69 * 0.81 0.76 1.00 1.84 a.a. n.a. CONSUMER EXPENDITURES (million dollars) 7.395 9,110 7.957" 7,454 6,816 4,672 4,756 Goods 4,862 ' 6,623 5,501 4,996 4,406 Services 2,780 2,946 2,533' 2,486 2,456* 2,458 2,411 1,892 1,809 RETAIL STORE SALES-TOTAL (million dollors) 4,828' 4,926 6,716 5,088 4,459 2,749 2,783 Durable goods 632' 636 698 777 582 TT9 679 Nondurable goods 4,196 ' 4,290, 5,818 4,312 3,877 2,138 2,104 TRANSPORTATION-COMMODIZY AND PASSENGER (1935-39=100) 220 ° 213 215" 226" 202 97 111 Commodity 207 ° 201 199" 211' 193 97 113 Passenger 261' 254 266" 275" 232 97 106 + Non-agricultural Employment, March; Labor Turnover, Retail Store Sales, February; Consumer Expenditures, Trans- portation, January. 'Rates beginning 1943 refer to all employees rather than to wage earners only and are not strictly comparable with earlier data. P Preliminary. "Unadjusted. n.a. Not available. r Revised. plaints and fears about shortages of Victuals are Vital food or other merchandise have dropped. Food processors estimate a 10% rise (Office of War Information, Bureau of for 1944 over their 1943 output but Special Services) fear manpower may be the bottleneck, according to Processed Foods (confiden- For Better Transportation tial; pp. 16). Still, increased supply With newand better priority ratings, probably will fail to keep pace with future production of transportation increased government demand, so further equipment should be greatly facilitated, limitations on civilian allocations of according to Progress Report to the canned and frozen foods may be necessary. President (restricted; pp. 109). Allot- (Department of Commerce, Bureau of For- ments to the Office of Defense Trans- eign and Domestic Commerce) portation of controlled materials for the first quarter of 1944 a new high, [This record is an attempt to select from the many documents coming to the attention of WAR PROGRESS rose 10% above allocations for the last those studies which would be of most interest to quarter of 1943. readers. The list is by no means comprehensive, and no attempt has been made to ovaluate reports for (Office of Defense Transportation) accuracy. Whether reports are available depends on the policy of each individual agency.] CONFIDENTIAL War Progress is loaned to you for official use. It contains CONFIDENTIAL information affecting the security of the United States. Revelation of its contents in any manner to unauthorized persons is prohibited by the Espionage Act. OFFICIAL RULES for its CUSTODY (1) Not to permit information from any copy in their custody to become available to anyone except a Government employee under their immediate supervision who will be bound by the restrictions hereby agreed to and who requires access to WAR PROGRESS in connection with his official duties. (2) To keep all copies in a securely locked container when not actually in use. (3) Not to incorporate information from WAR PROGRESS in any record unless the use of such record is restricted as if the record were itself e copy of WAR PROGRESS. (4) To give prior written notice of any change of address. (5) On written request, or before separation from the Govern- ment position which entitles them to receive WAR PRO- GRESS, to return all copies charged to their account. WAR PROGRESS Disclosure Punishable Under Espionage Act (W) EG at any, Economic Data Special Articles The P resident 1 WAR PROGRESS 6.7. Was Board Production Confid Disclosure Punishable Under Espionage Aa x 52-44. 4404 Machine Tools Now and When-Artillery Ammunition: Up, Down, Up-Still Toward x178 Newer, Heavier Planes-Fractionals: Bar- rier to Reconversion X 172-B of (8) not x4735 N.O. By Dele MAR 14 1973 Number 189 April 29, 1944 WAR PROGRESS Prepared in the War Production Board Donald M. Nelson, Chairman War Progress is a confidential report designed to provide & coordinated and continuing picture of the overall war program for the various war agencies. To this end, it presents, analyzes, and interprets basic statistical and economic information, and from time to time examines the pros and cons of controversial questions. Although War Progress is an official publication of the War Production Board, statements in it are not to be construed as expressing official attitudes of the Board as a whole, or even of individual members. Conclusions, whenever reached, should be considered editorial conclusions. War Progress is prepared in the Bureau of Planning and Statistics (Stacy May, Director) by the Munitions Branch (Morris A. Copeland, Chief Editorial Staff Editor, Joseph A. Livingston; Associates: Thomas A. Falco, Roy T. Frye (drafting), Winona Hibbard Morris Katz, Chester L Kieffer, John C. Loeser, Herbert J. Muller, J.S. Werking (production). Contributors Joseph A. Zettler ( munitions ), William F. Butler (aircraft), J. Ronald Meiklejohn (communications and electronics), Herbert Stem ( economics ), - This report contains CONFIDENTIAL information affecting the defense of the United States. See inside back cover for rules of custody. CONFIDENTIAL NUMBER 189 WAR PROGRESS APRIL 29, 1944 Machine Tools-First in Peace Business is still above prewor period, but is down airplane engines, and heavy artillery sharply from '42 peak, and newcomers ammunition. are squeezed out. Government-owned Shipments have dropped from a peak equipment poses postwar problem. of $132,000,000 in December, 1942, to about $50,000,000 a month currently. FIRST IN WAR, the machine-tool industry Even so, these shipments are far above will also be first in peace. Before those of the prewar period. However, plants could turn out tanks, planes, they are low enough to squeeze some of ships, guns, shells, they had to have the war-born newcomers out of the in- milling and boring machines, grinders, dustry. About 70 companies have quit, planers, broachers, lathes. So it will and 90% of the current volume of busi- be in reconversion: before industry can ness is being turned out by some 260 turn back to civilian production, it prewar firms. And some plants have will have to retool. stepped down from three to two shifts Right now, incoming business is large- a day. Employment has fallen from a ly from the few military programs on 1942 peak of 120,000 to 75,000. To keep which facilities have not been completed busy, some companies have gone directly or on which expansion is still under into war work, producing shells, engine way, such as heavy trucks and trailers, parts, bomb bays, radioand radar equip- THE RISE AND FALL OF MACHINE TOOLS Although this years shipments of machine tools are 55% below the all-time high, they are still far ahead of the first World War peak. 1500 1500 Machine Tool Shipments 1000 1000 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 500 500 o 0 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 EST WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 2 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS ment, etc.: they have a $100,000,000 to work on war contracts. Inexperienced backlog in such contracts. workers, 24-hour operation, neglect in Machine-tool building has always repair and maintenance, have all imposed been a feast-or-famine business. Out- heavy wear and tear on these machines; put, for example, reached a peak of some will not even be worth rebuilding. $220,000,000 in 1918, dropped to $22,- Although tool builders at present 000,000 in 1921, climbed to $185,000,- can accept for production only priority 000 in 1929, fell back to $22,000,000 orders, some motorcar manufacturers in 1932, and rose again to $200,000,000 are reported to have placed orders for in 1939. Then output soared to $450,- future delivery. And inquiries are com- 000,000 in 1940, $812,000,000 in 1941, ing in from customers in all fields. and a new peak of $1,322,000,000 in There will undoubtedly be new products 1942. Last year it slid off to $1,200,- in the postwar world-and these usually 000,000, and this year output is ex- mean new machine tools. pected to drop to $600,000,000. In the meantime, machine-tool build- DOLLARS AND SENSE ers, having had an early taste of cut- What these customers will buy cannot backs, are looking forward to orders now be estimated. Toolbuilders will from old customers-railroad-car shops, have to compete against their own prod- the steel mills, the automobile indus- ucts-produce.more efficient ones. Ex- try, and the numerous manufacturers of cept for expansion, a manufacturer in- farm equipment, refrigerators, vacuum vests in new machine tools only when cleaners, electric appliances, etc. they result in savings in operating costs. It'sadollars-and-cents propo- PENDING BUSINESS sition-and machine tools come high: Peacetime manufacturers, particularly they average $4,000 to $5,000 each, run the automobile industry, will undoubtedly up toas highas $325,000 for a drilling need many new machine tools. When they and tapping unit for machining aircraft turned to war production, they stored engines, for example. Thus, the industry their special-purpose tools in grease, will have to depend on engineering in- but put their general-purpose machines genuity rather than high-pressure selling. NEW MARKETS ABROAD IN THIS ISSUE: Exports promise some new business. There will be a demand from the devas- MACHINE TOOLS-FIRST IN PEACE 1 tated areas of Europe: Russia will very ARTILLERY AMMUNITION: UP, DOWN, UP 4 likely continue as a big buyer; new mar- kets may be opened up in South America. FRACTIONAL ROLE IN RECONVERSION 6 Domestic builders will have to face British competition, however, for Great KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK 8 Britain has expanded its machine-tool SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS 9 production to four times what it was before the war. W-10: EVER HEAVIER 10 In the last three years, toolbuilders turned out 700,000 machines-$3,200,- REPORTS ON REPORTS 12 000,000 worth, or more business than the CONFIDENTIAL APRIL 29, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL 3 industry had done in the previous 25 years. About two-thirds-$2,000,000,000 MORE OF THE SAME -went to the government, which owns well over one-fourth of the 1,700,000 New orders for machine tools drop; in use in the U.S. today, and is far and 400 400 away the biggest owner in the country. Moreover, itstill continues to buy: it New Orders less Concellations will take most of the $600,000,000 out- 200 200 put in 1944. DISPOSAL POSES PROBLEM o o How these machine tools are disposed 1942 1943 1944 of at the war's end is the most important single factor affecting the industry's Shipments drop, but not so fast. future. One-fourth of their recent out- 400 400 put has been in special-purpose types designed for particular operations-such as rifling a cannon bore: but three- 200 200 fourths has been in general-purpose tools which can turn out peacetime products. Some general-purpose machines are being disposed of to present users who o o 1942 1943 1944 hold purchase options. In contract re- negotiations the plant-lot provision- buy all or none-has in some instances MILLIONS OF DOLLARS And backlogs continue to decline. 1200 1200 been relaxed. Rigid adherence to such a provision would limit sales. General MILLIONS OF DOLLARS Motors, for example, is said to be in- 1000 1000 terested in only one-sixth of the 56,000 government-owned tools in plants it operates: Chrysler, in only one-fifth of 19,000. 800 800 SEVEN POSSIBILITIES Disposal possibilities for tools, 600 besides open-market sales, are: (1) 600 sending them to industrially backward countries, (2) sending them abroad to re-equip the industries of the devas- 400 400 tated countries, (3) stockpiling them for future emergency, (4) re-equipping nonprofit engineering and vocational training schools which are now using 200 200 old equipment, (5) turning back machines to the original manufacturers for re- conditioning and resale, (6) re-equip- o o ping arsenals using prewar machines. 1942 1943 1944 WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 4 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS Artillery Ammunition: Up, Down, Up Expenditure of big shells exceeds expecto- But production facilities are not tions, so schedules, after 1943 dip, rise adequate for some types. For example, to new peak. Are still short of require- the revised 1944 schedule for the 240mm. ments, and facilities must be expanded. howitzer HE M-114 shell is only about 40% of the proposed requirements. To CASSINO AND ANZIO have revolutionized a lesser extent, facilities are also a the Army Supply Program requirements bottleneck in 4.5-inchshells, the 155mm. for heavy artillery ammunition. When howitzer HE M-107, the 155mm. field gun the ASP came out in February, total re- HE M-101, and the 8-inch field gun HE quirements for shells over 105mm. for M-103. In the case of the 8-inch how- this year and next amounted to $780,- itzer HE M-107 shell, the schedule is 000,000. Now, only two months later, only 2% below requirements. Schedules the proposed 1944-45 program rises 60% will be revised upward as capacity is to $1,250,000,000. This year's gain is increased. 28%, next year's 96%. Major increases: Ammunition for: 1944 1945 NEEDS SHIFT RAPIDLY 4.5-inch field gun 300% 205% The upward revision in ammunition 155mm. howitzer 93 83 for big guns is one more indication of 8-inch howitzer 63 179 how rapidly military needs shift. Here 8-inch field gun. 80 333 is a program which has gone up, then 240mm. howitzer 145 217 down, and now it's up again. Thus dur- 155mm. field gun. 11 89 ing the last half of 1942, production EMPHASIS ON HEAVY AMMUNITION This year's army ammunition program shows no change from 1943, whereas small and medium types are cut more than half, heavier types rise 70%. 1943 1944 All Other Small Arms 1942 Ammunition 20mm- 57mm Aerial Bombs 75mm-105mm Over Rocket 105mm and Mortor Ammunition $2,500,000,000 $4,500,000,000 $4,500,000,000 WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL APRIL 29, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL ... 5 PASS THE HEAVY AMMUNITION Army steps up program after Anzio and Cassino experience. Last quarter output to triple the first quarter's. 60 60 Heavy Ammunition Production (Over 105 mm) New Schedule 40 40 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS Old Schedule Actual MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 20 20 o o J F M A M J J A 5 o N D J F M A M J J A S o N D 1943 1944 MAR PROGRESS of shells for big guns ran at the rate a whole (including bombs) was about $1,- of about $100,000,000 quarterly. But 100,000,000, from $8,800,000,000 to by 1943 large stocks had been built up $9,900,000,000. Of this increase, ar- and schedules were cut back sharply. tillery shells accounted for $755,000,- The production rate dropped about 50%. 000, going up from $4,515,000,000 to That was on the basis of the going rate $5,270,000,000. Heavy artillery ammu- of expenditure at the time. nition, as already indicated, was up But in Italy, the rate of artillery $470,000,000. Among the medium shells, fire exceeded expectations. And sched- the biggest increase is in 105mm. how- ules as now revised, even though they itzers. Ammunition for the 3-inch and do not fully reflect requirements, are 76mm. gun is increased, but this is some- atanall-time peak. The fourth-quarter what offset by a reduction in shells for goal is 50% higher than the 1942 peak, the 75mm. howitzer. Small arms ammu- and 100% higher than the 1943 average nition requirements also were increased rate of production (chart, above). The slightly. Nearly all of this increase schedules for 1945 have not yet been set is in a new type of .50-caliber car- up. Since requirements rise even more tridge, the API. steeply than in 1944, and facilities are being expanded, they will be still high- MORE CANNON T00 er. In dollar value, the biggest in- The proposed requirements also pro- crease is in shells for the improved vide $148,000,000 for spare cannon bar- 155mm. howitzer. rels. Heavier expenditure of shells The two-year rise in ammunition as means greater wear on cannon. And re- CONFIDENTIAL 6 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS quirements for the 8-inch gun increase ammunition indicate a swing back to about 50% and for the 240mm. howitzer artillery fire to wipe out camouflaged about one-third. Likewise, the increase gun nests, instead of relying heavily in heavy ammunition an expan- on bombing planes. Moreover, artillery sion in the propelling explosives pro- is being employed to help out bombers gram. Heavy artillery materiel, ammu- through the use of colored smoke shells. nition, and prime movers to pull the When these shells explode they release artillery have been given top priority heavy clouds of colored smoke, which rating-on a par with landing craft. hang in the air and mark the target for The requirements also include some new planes. Smoke-shell requirements have types of mortars and rocket launchers. also been stepped up, but the shells The increased requirements for heavy are still subject to standardization. Fractional Role in Reconversion Though output of small motors is five times Yet shipments this year of all frac- prewar level, military needs cut into civil- tionals are due to rise 7% to $400,000,- ion supply; precludes early manufacture 000. And backlogs have been dropping of refrigerators, washing machines, etc. slowly from 14 months in January, 1943, to between nine and ten months currently. TO THE AVERAGE AMERICAN, reconversion That's partly because early estimates means refrigerators, washing machines, of requirements were unrealistic. Orders vacuum cleaners, and automobiles. But were placed with manufacturers just in to the average manufacturer, reconver- case. But it's also because ground Army sion means components: and high on the and Navy requirements for fractionals list of components are fractional-horse- have passed their peak, due to reduc- power motors. Without them, refrigera- tions in schedules for tanks, antiair- tors, washing machines, and countless craft guns, some electronic items, etc. other electrical gadgets just aren't. Indeed, deliveries have been exceeding And because of that, reconversion-in new orders pretty consistently and, ex- the sense of more consumers' durable cept in instances when a brand-new type goods-is still off in the distance. of motor is called for on 30 to 60 days' Military demands for fractionalmotors notice, shipments have been close to continue to absorb the great bulk of schedule. The bugaboo, as with all such production-this despite the fact that components, isa sudden switch in spec- production is five times prewar levels. ifications which upsets the production Like everything else, asharp expansion lines. in output has had a hard time keeping up with the even sharper upsweep in CUTBACKS CUT DEMAND military demand. Last year, for ex- Most combat-type motors are not tight. ample, Army, Navy, and Maritime ship- Demand has been dropping because of cuts ments accounted for some 90% of all the in military needs, and deliveries have output. What was left for essential kept ahead of net new orders. Ground civilian programs (mostly AC motors) Army, Navy, and Maritime requirements was short-and will continue so through- take up about one-third of this group. out this year. Two-thirds is in aircraft auxiliary CONFIDENTIAL APRIL 29, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL ... 7 TIGHT AND EASY FRACTIONALS Most small motor backlogs are dropping, as shipments exceed new orders. AC types are the exception. 40 40 40 40 Total Fractional H.P. Motors Combat Motors (excluding AC combot type) Shipments Shipments 30 30 30 30 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS New Orders less Concellations 20 20 20 20 New Orders less Concellations MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 10 10 10 10 o o o 0 20 20 20 20 Backlog Backlog MONTHS 10 10 10 10 MONTHS o o o o J F M A M J J A S o N D J F M J F M A M J J A $ o N 0 J F M 1943 1944 1943 1944 20 20 20 20 Aircraft Motors AC Motors (excluding ouxiliories) MILLIONS OF DOLLARS New Orders less 10 Concellotions 10 10 10 New Orders less Concellations - MILLIONS OF DOLLARS Shipments Shipments o o o o 20 20 20 20 Backlog Backlog MONTHS 10 10 10 10 MONTHS o o o 0 J F M A M J J A 5 o N D J F M J F M A M J J A 5 o N D J F M 1943 1944 1943 1944 WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS 8 CONFIDENTIAL KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK Lotest Preceding Month 6 Months Year Week Week Ago Ago Ago War program Checks poid (millions of dollors) 1,630 1,912 1,524 1,616 1,452 War bond soles-E,F,G (millions of dollars) 157 170 170 137 413 Money in circulation (millions of dollars) 21,334 21,295 20,934 19,019 16,500 Wholesole prices (1926=100) All commodities 103.6* 103.8 103.6° 102,9" 103.4' 124.6* 123.9 Form products 122.9' 124.5 122.7 Foods 104.4 105.0 104.5 104.8 108.5 All Other 98.5" 98.5 98.3" 97.5 96.8 Petroleum: Total U.S. stocks* (thousands of borrels) 411,242 410,489 411,983 421,488 436,425 Total East Coost stocks* (thousonds of borrels) 56,439 56,732 55.874 63,458 43,653 Eost Coost receipts (thousands of borrels, daily average) 1,700 1,735 1,791 1,540 1,305 Bituminous cool production (thousands of short tons, doily average) 1,955' 2,003 1,987 1,954 2,003 Steel operations (% of capacity) 100.0 99.5 99.1 100.6 100.0 Freight cors unloaded for export, excluding grain (doily average) Atlantic Coost ports 3,115 2,866 2,979 2,423 1,816 Gulf Coost ports 316 334 456 335 370 Pocific Coast ports 1,690 1,600 1,493 1,288 1,080 Department store soles (% change from o year ago) -11 -11 *17 +12 *29 p. Preliminary *Excludes stocks owned by the military. equipment-selsyns, amplidynes, dyna- nesium, other light alloys extensively. motors, and fractional aircraft motors. February shipments of aircraft motors But fractional aircraft motors-as reached a new high at $8,000,000 and distinct fromthe auxiliaries-are some- exceeded new orders. The backlog is ten what tighter. Shipments last year ac- months: more manpower will be needed to counted for 20% of the total and the meet indicated schedules, but for the proportion is expected to rise this year. most part shifts from within the indus- Although here too demand is for the most try couldmake up the deficit. Workers part beingmet, shipments must continue released from production of small dyna- to increase to meet the needs in new motors and selsyns can switch to aircraft plane models. The bigger the plane, the motors. Not much help can be expected more automatic equipment it carries. from workers released from other muni- The B-29 Superfortress, for instance, tions industries because fractional- uses about 300 motors. Liberators and horsepower motor manufacture requires Fortresses need about 100. Most air- special skills, and wage rates are gen- craft fractionals are specially designed erally below those of many other muni- and have come into existence since the tions industries. For instance, in St. war began. For instance, on bomb-bay Louis (aGroup IVarea) where three large doors and landing gear, a special motor fractional plants are located, several was devised which was both light and thousand workers were released from a powerful. An ordinary motor just could small-arms ammunition plant, but very not stand up, besides being far too few turned up on the rosters of the heavy. These motors use aluminum, mag- motor manufacturers. CONFIDENTIAL APRIL 29, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL 9 The really tight spot is in alter- ment, etc. israted high for part of its nating-current motors, despite the fact program, low for the balance. And only that manufacture of motors for washing the higher-rated portions have a good machines, refrigerators, electric fans, chance of being filled. Some plants now etc. is banned. Last year, AC motors making larger motors are planning to accounted for 13% of total shipments and switch to AC fractionals, which could 90% of the shortages. About 30% of this make the load somewhat lighter. type goes to the armed forces, 70% to Shipments of AC fractionals have civilian programs. Most of the Army and risen steadily and, like aircraft motors, Navy orders for AC motors have an AA-1 hit a wartime high in February. But new priority. Again, these have for the most orders have been coming in even faster, part been met. and the backlog has increased from six months at the beginning of last year to SPLIT CIVILIAN PROGRAMS nine months today. Manpower, too, is Essential civilian industry has been short, but here again shifting from having a tough time. Many civilian pro- within the industry may make up a part grams have split programs. Although farm of the deficit. equipment machinery has an AA-2priority For, on an overall basis, there is for all of its program, replacement almost enough manpower tomeet shipping machinery for household, office equip- schedules. The draft isn't too much of SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS Cost of Living-Production-Employment Latest Preceding 2 Months Same 6 Months Year Some Month" Month Month Ago Ago Month Ago 1939 1937 COST OF LIVING-ALL ITEMS (1935-39=100) 123.8 123.8" 124.2" 123.9 122.8 99.1 101.8 Food 134.1 134.5 136.1 137.4 137.4 94.6 105.0 Other than food 118.5 118.0 117.7 116.6" 114.7' 101.5 100.2 PRODUCTION INDEX-INDUSTRIAL 0935-39=100 239 " 241 240" 248 232 101 120 Total Manufactures 258 ° 259 259 267 251 101 121 Duroble 364 ° 367 366 366" 350 98 133 Nondurable 171" 173 172 181" 171 104 112 Minerols 133' 137 133 143 127 100 112 PRODUCTION OF CLOTHING AND SHOES FOR CIVILIANS (1935-39=100)f Clothing and shoes combined 111" 107 97 105 116 119 n.s. Clothing 117 112 R 101 107 120 120 n.n. Shoes 89 * 88 83 94 101 115 n.a. LABOR FORCE-TOTAL (millions) 51.4° 51.1 51.5 53.8 52.9 n.a. n.a. Employment 50.5° 50.2 50.4 52.8 51.7 Mole 34.0' 34.0 34.0 35.2 35.5 Femole 16.5* 16.2 16.4 17.6 16.2 Unemployment "9" is 1.1 1.0 1.2 n.a. n.a. FEDERAL CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT (thousands) 3,033' 3,027 3,262 3.044 3,003 908 845 War 2,171 2,162 2,176 2,172 2,192 n.a. n.a. Wor department 1,238 1,240 1,258 1,277 1,374 Novy department 714° 704 700 677 600 Other war agencies 219 218 218 218 218 Nonwar 862 865 1,086 872 511 n.a. n.a. *Cost of Living, Production Index, Labor Force, March; all other, February. r Revised. !Unadjusted. P Preliminary. n.a. Not available. CONFIDENTIAL APRIL 29, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL ... 10 & threat, numerically. But there is a W-IO-NOT MUCH CHANGE danger, as in all specialized industries, of losing key people to Selective Serv- New schedule cuts 1944 airframe ice. Of the 70,000 workers now engaged weight 2%, next year's, 6%. in the manufacture of fractional horse- 120 120 power motors, 60% are women. Only a few W-9 thousand are men under 26 years of age. W-10 If manpower can be maintained or raised AIRFRAME WEIGHT-MILLIONS OF LBS. 80 80 Actual AIRFRAME WEIGHT-MILLIONS OF LBS. slightly over current levels there is every reason to expect that military re- quirements will continue to be met, with only the civilian portion of AC frac- 40 40 tionals remaining tight. And better scheduling of production or increased efficiency might ease the pinch somewhat. o o JFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASOND 1944 1945 W-10: Ever Heavier Number of planes is off 3% this year, 8% next year. Average weight per plane continues up, even IO 10 W-9 though total schedule is down. Program mature: gain to peak in October, 1945, Actual W-10 8 8 is less than 1% per month. THOUSANDS OF PLANES THOUSANDS OF PLANES FURTHER PROOF that the plane program 6 6 has come of age is afforded by the new W-10 schedule, second in a series of 4 4 quarterly revisions. Changes are moderate-total airframe 2 2 weight is down 2% this year, 6% next. And reductions in the direction of more o o realistic scheduling are few: the A-26 JFMAMJ $ N D F M J JASOND 1944 1945 Invader at Douglas, Long Beach: the P-63 And weight per plane rises 1% and Airacobra at Bell, Buffalo: the C-54 2%. Skymaster at Douglas, Chicago, are the 12 most important of these. 12 W-10 W-9 UPTREND TO CONTINUE WEIGHT PER PLANE-THOUSANDS OF LBS. Actual 8 8 WEIGHT PER PLANE-THOUSANDS OF LBS But the monthly trend of airframe weight is still upward; the peak of 102,500,000 pounds in October, 1945, is 15% above actual output last month 4 4 (chart, left). This averages out to a gain of less than 1% a month-and the end of either the European or Pacific war would cut that. o o JFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASOND The average weight per plane increases 1944 1945 under W-10. This year it rises to 10,- WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL APRIL 29, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL ... II SHIFTING PATTERNS IN PLANE PRODUCTION Forts and Liberators still lead the parade, but superbombers jump from 10th place in Ist quarter to 2nd place at year end. Army light I-engine bombers, basic trainers pass out. Ist Quorter 1944 4th Quarter 1944 RANK RANK 98 I Fort and Liberator I 89 IO Superbomber 2 2 Army Fighter 3 I-Engine 4 Navy Fighter 4 Engine 6 Novy Light Bomber 5 1- Engine 3 Medium Bomber 6 12 Heavy Transport 7 Engine 9 Fighter 8 2- Engine 7 Light Bomber 9 2 Engine 5 Medium Transport IO Engine 8 Patrol Bomber II 2- Engine 13 Heovy Transport 12 4 Engine 4th Quarter 22 Patrol Bomber 13 Schedule Engine 1st Quarter Tromers, Commun. Production 14 Advanced Trainer 14 Transports Troiners, Engine Commun. Transports 16 Advanced Trainer 15 Fighters 2 Engine Including Naval Fighters including Novel Rec. nng 20 Communication 16 15 Light Transport 17 Engine 19 Light Transport IB I- Engine Bombers Bombers Noval 21 Reconnaissance 19 18 Primary Trainer 20 Il Army Light Bomber21 o 250,000,000,000 LBS. Engine 290,000,000,000 LBS. 17 Basic Trainer 22 o 30 20 10 o o 10 20 30 AIRFRAME WEIGHT - MILLIONS OF POUNDS AIRFRAME WEIGHT - MILLIONS OF POUNDS WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 12 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS 180 pounds, as against 9,980 pounds, and ceded by a cut in spare parts. Require- in 1945 it goes up to 11,420 pounds from ments for airframe spares were reduced 11,050. An important factor here is the from 21% to 14% of the value of air- cut in trainers, communications, and frames, engine spares from 42% to 18% special-purpose planes. But more than of the value of engines. The new ratios that, plants making relatively obsolete are belowrecent spares output. Hence, models are being switched into newer, increases in total aircraft production heavier planes. fromhere on will be less than previously Take the case of the A-30 Baltimore scheduled. light bomber at Martin, Baltimore, one of the first planes contracted for by REPORTS ON REPORTS the British; it goes out of production next month instead of August, 1945, and The Net Tightens subcontracts for the B-29 Superfortress Japan's supply of certain basic ma- move in. Likewise, the RA-35 Vengeance terials necessary for the maintenance of dive bomber has outlived its period domestic communications-telephone, of greatest usefulness; Consolidated telegraph, and radio-is tight, and Vultee's Nashville plant will wind up stockpiles, especially copper, are being production of the RA-35 this month in- drawn on, according to Japan: Communica- stead of next October and expand work tions (restricted; pp. 108). Shortages on the high-preference P-38 Lightning. of both materials and personnel are resulting in a neglect of maintenance BIG BOMBERS STILL 40% with the result that costly, time-taking Schedule against schedule, there is repairs are frequently necessary. no significant change in heavy bombers (Army Service Forces, Office of the -Flying Fortresses, Liberators, and Provost Marshal General) superbombers: they still account for about 40% of the plane program by weight. The Shoe Pinch But all medium-bomber production Although domestic production of most halts in July, 1945, instead of con- hides and skins in 1944 will probably tinuing throughout the year. Since the exceed last year's output, leather pro- program began, Glenn L. Martin, Balti- ducts will run far short of prospective more, and North American's Inglewood demands. Indeed, shoe production in 1944 and Kansas City plants have turned out will probably drop more than 10% below almost 10,000 of our two leading medium 1943, according to Leather (confidential; bombers: the B-26 Marauder and the B-25 pp. 28). Added to the shortages of raw Billy Mitchell. materials, tanneries and leather manu- facturers are faced with manpower dif- FIGHTERS SPEED UP ficulties. Result: processors may not By contrast, the fighter group picks be able to meet military requirements. up speed. Outstanding is the boost in (Department of Commerce, Bureau of For- the fast-flying, swift-climbing, hard- eign and Domestic Commerce) striking P-51 Mustang at North American, Inglewood. This year's docket goes up [This record is an attempt to select from the many documents coming to the attention of WAR PROGRESS 25% to some 4,300; next year's 40% to those studies which would be of most interest to readers. The list is by no means comprehensive, and more than 5,000. no attempt has been made to evaluate reports for accuracy. Whether reports are available depends on The W-10 reduction in planes was pre- the policy of each individual agency.] CONFIDENTIAL War Progress is loaned to you for official use. It contains CONFIDENTIAL information affecting the security of the United States. Revelation of its contents in any manner to unauthorized persons is prohibited by the Espionage Act. OFFICIAL RULES for its CUSTODY (1) Not to permit information from any copy in their custody to become available to anyone except a Government employee under their Immediate supervision who will be bound by the restrictions hereby agreed to and who requires access to WAR PROGRESS in connection with his official duties. (2) To keep all copies in a securely locked container when not actually in use, (3) Not to incorporate information from WAR PROGRESS in any record unless the use of such record is restricted as if the record were itself a copy of WAR PROGRESS. (4) To give prior written notice of any change of address, (5) On written request, or before separation from the Govern- ment position which entitles them to receive WAR PRO- GRESS, to return all copies charged to their account. WAR PROGRESS Disclosure Punishable Under Espionage Act S(D) $ (0) no. THE The MAR 1.4.1973 Economic Data Special Articles Form GAR-SD 2 (8-2) UNITED STATES OF AMERICA WAR PRODUCTION BOARD S- 84181 COURIER SERVICE CONTROL RECORD FROM: TO STATISTICS DIVISION INAMES The Presidentions FIRTLE - IROOM NUMBER: FRUILDING IBUILDING DESCRIPTION OF DOCUMENT . 190 3 1 COPY 3 THE SERIAL NUMBER IN THE UPPER RIGHT-HAND CORNER Addressee's Copy SHOULD BE IDENTICAL TO NUMBER ON SENDER'S RECEIPT - ------ The President 1 6.7 WAR PROGRESS Nar Board Production Confidential Disclosure Funishable Under Expionege Act Cost-Plus Contracts: Still High Too Many Claimants for Crawlers Alligators, Buffaloes, Ducks Scorecard on Merchant Shipping B aur, being Complete Days Laster, 11:16:28 and (D) or (k) 54735 X 526 MAR 14 1973 Number 190 May 6, 1944 WAR PROGRESS Prepared in the War Production Board Donald M. Nelson, Chairman War Progress is a confidential report designed to provide a coordinated and continuing picture of the overall war program for the various war agencies. To this end, it presents, analyzes, and interprets basic statistical and economic information, and from time to time examines the pros and cons of controversial questions. Although War Progress is an official publication of the War Production Board, statements in it are not to be construed as expressing official attitudes of the Board as a whole, or even of individual members. Conclusions, whenever reached, should be considered editorial conclusions. War Progress is prepared in the Bureau of Planning and Statistics (Stacy May, Director) by the Munitions Branch (Morris A, Copeland, Chief). Editorial Staff Editor, Joseph A. Livingston; Associates: Thomas A. Falco, Roy T, Frye (drafting), Winona Hibbard Morris Katz, Chester L. Kieffer, John C. Loeser, Herbert J. Muller, J.S. Werking (production). Contributors Joseph A. Zettler (munitions), William F. Butfer (aircraft), J. Ronald Meiklejohn (communications and electronics), Herbert Stom (economics). This report contains CONFIDENTIAL information affecting the defense of the United States. See inside back cover for rules of custody. CONFIDENTIAL NUMBER 190 WAR PROGRESS MAY 6, 1944 Cost-Plus Contracts: Case of Necessity Although military policy is to procure on 0 fixed- kept creeping into schedules. Landing price basis, the unknown quantity in new or craft, ship repair, and aircraft are changing programs often makes it imprac- striking examples of this. Indeed, elim- tical, particularly in aircraft. inate Army Air Forces contracts from the total and the trend away from the cost- IN THE SIX MONTHS following Pearl Harbor plus-a-fee contract is fairly distinct. -in the rush to tool up for war-more than half of all supply contracts of FEE IS FIXED FIRST $10,000,000 and more were on a cost- Under most cost-plus contracts, the plus-a-fee basis (chart, below). The manufacturer's fee is fixed before the idea was to get manufacturers started work starts. It is calculated as a given at a time when production costs were percentage, usually 21% to 4%, of the unpredictable. estimated cost. Suppose the Army awards During the final half of 1942, the a contract for 500 new aircraft engines ratiodropped to 42%. Around that time, and figures they will cost $15,000,000 the Army and Navy introduced a policy of to produce. If a 4% fee is agreed upon, procuring on a fixed-price basis wherever then the manufacturer will receive $600,- possible. Yet, in the succeeding six 000. And this fee remains unchanged months, the proportion of cost-plus regardless of whether actual production awards actually rose to 43%. costs are more or less than the estimate. What happened was that new programs In some cases, however, provision is made COST-PLUS VS. FIXED PRICE Big rush in contract letting came right Cost-plus contracts were more than half after Pearl Harbor. then, less since (though they're still high). 30 30 100 100 75 Fixed Price 75 20 20 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS % DISTRIBUTION 50 50 DISTRIBUTION of IO 10 25 Cost-plus 25 o o o o June 40- Jon. 42- July 42- Jon. 43- June 40- Jon 42- July w- Jon 43- Dec. 41 June 42 Dec. 42 June 43 Dec. 41 June 42 Dec. 42 June 43 Note: Data cover only contracts of $10,000,000 or over. WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 2 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS for an adjusted fee based on savings in cost. WAR CONTRACT SUMMARY The fixed-price contract is usually From June, 1940, to June, 1943, cost- the result, of negotiation between the plus obligations were 47%. contracting agency and the contractor. Say the Navy wants a certain quantity of valves and the Crane Company offers to produce them for $10,000,000. In setting that price, the company allows for a profit. If it manages to cut costs below the original estimate, profit rises: if costs are underestimated, Fixed Price Cost-plus profit is squeezed. TOO MANY UNKNOWNS Theory behind the cost-plus contract is that, in converting a peacetime econ- omy towar, only a fraction of industry $ 88,000,000,000 has had production know-how with muni- Note: Data cover only contracts of $10,000,000 or over tions. Contractors must be protected WAR PROGRESS against unforeseen engineering diffi- culties, errors in manufacture, unex- pected delays in production, etc. sidering a joint resolution to prohibit Because the cost-plus contract removes the use of cost-plus contracting except the customary incentives to keep a lid under extraordinary circumstances. on costs, the charge is frequently made However, even today-after more than that it encourages wasteful labor prac- two years of war production-the cost- tices such as hoarding and underutili- plus contract is often the only type of zation: that these, in turn, result in award that is practical. Consider the higher costs. These charges have been landing craft program. Some of the ves- so insistent that the Senate is con- sels had never been built before, yet the need for speed was so great that the job couldn't wait for full plans and IN THIS ISSUE: specifications. Besides, the program included manufacturers who had never COST-PLUS CONTRACTS: CASE OF NECESSITY 1 worked on landing craft before. Under LSTs COME THROUGH, LANDING CRAFT TOPSCHEDULE 3 such circumstances, cost-plus awards are 42,000 TRACTORS, 55,000 CLAIMANTS hard to avoid. 4 KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK 6 SPEED AT ANY COST SCORECARD ON MERCHANT SHIPPING 7 Likewise in ship repairs. When a WAR BOND SALES SLUMP SHARPLY 8 warship is berthed to repair battle MORE BUFFALOES, DUCKS; ALLIGATORS OUT 9 damage, work is begun immediately and PLANE UPTREND HALTED 11 carried on with all possible speed. SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS 12 There isno time for making an estimate for a fixed-price contract. CONFIDENTIAL MAY 6, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL 3 Aircraft is another example. It is decline. If aircraft, ship repair, and the largest single munitions group, is landing craft awards are taken out, how- still headed upward, and includes many ever, the trend has been downward. new and larger planes (WP-Apr29'44, p10). Thus, Army Air Forces awards alone In addition, subcontractors who never constitute more than one-third of all war worked on aircraft before have joined supply contracts, and the proportion of the program. One manufacturer of a dive cost-plus awards in this group rosesharp- bomber, a supposedly "established" model, ly between the end of 1942 and the first had to take on so many inexperienced half of 1943. If Army Air Forces con- subcontractors to meet his swiftly ex- tracts are excluded, the remaining total panding schedule that subcontracting shows a decided drop in cost-plus con- costs more than doubled his previous tracting-from 37% in the last half of estimates. On top of that, modifications 1942 to 31% in the first six months of and design changes are frequent-and a 1943. continuing "unknown quantity" for a pro- Moreover, there are some preliminary ducer trying to calculate costs before- statistical indications of an overall hand. decline in subsequent months. Indeed, most of the small-arms ammunition, com- PLUS AND MINUS bat vehicle, and explosives contracts It is for reasons such as these that were on a cost-plus basis and these the ratio of cost-plus awards didn't programs have been cut back sharply. LSTs COME THROUGH, LANDING CRAFT TOP SCHEDULE TANK LANDING SHIPS-chief reason for in April: they are downfor 26 in May. the consistent lag in the landing The prospects now are that the goal vessel program-came through strongly of 62 for May will also be reached, or last month. Deliveries jumped to 50 even passed. Admiral Robinson's short- (as against 28 in March), one ship term forecast (which has proved pessi- over the reduced first-of-the-month mistic for LSTs in the last few months) schedule of 49. This performance car- calls for 65. After May the schedules ried the whole landing vessel program taper off. over the top for the first time in However, the timetable for the pro- seven months. At 130,000 displacement gram has been set back, since deliver- tons (preliminary), deliveries were 3% ies are still about 20 days behind over schedule, 35% over March. schedule. Only 74 LSTs were delivered Three big eastern builders-the in the first quarter instead of the Boston Navy Yard, Bethlehem Fall River, 103 called for; at the beginning of and Bethlehem Hingham-are now well March, 56 LSTs were slated for April, under way on LSTs. Bethlehem Fall compared with 49 under the current River, for example, delivered its schedule. Hence the full goal of 260 first one late in March, completed set by the Joint Chiefs of Staff for eight last month. Together, these the November-May period probably won't fast-building yards finished 16 LSTs be reached until mid-June. CONFIDENTIAL 4 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS. 42,000 Tractors, 55,000 Claimants Army takes 75%; not enough left for highly miners, oildrillers, farmers, and other essential civilian needs-logging, strip producers of war goods. Last year only mining, oil drilling, farming, etc. Cam- 6,000 new track-laying tractors were poign on to pull in idle equipment. released to civilians. For the year ahead, nonmilitary claimant agencies TRACK-LAYING TRACTORS-the first vehi- have put minimum needs at 20,500. cles brought ashore at Hollandia-get a top priority rank on the Army's pro- ALL SLICES TOO SMALL duction urgency list. In all war the- And so WPB's Construction Machinery aters these crawlers have been clearing Division-following directives of the the ground, building and repairing air- Requirements Committee-has had to cut fields and roads, rescuing tanks, etc. a 42,000 production pie to satisfy a (Put a curved blade on the front of one 55,000 appetite. The Army is again due and you have the celebrated bulldozer.) to get about 75% of scheduled produc- But they also rank high on the civilian tion, or some 31,000 tractors-a little urgency list-and there aren't enough more than its schedules now call for to go around. For the year beginning but less than it wants. Civilian agen- April 1 there will be five claimants cies are down for 11,000, or little more for every four produced: output is sched- than half of their stated requirements. uled at 42,000 units, requirements run Here are the allotments for the year up to 55,000. ending March 31, 1945: Chief claimant is the Army (which '43-'44 '44-45 '44-45 also procures for the Navy). Army sched- Releases Requests Alloc. ules for the year beginning April 1 call for 30,000 tractors. These schedules, Army (inc.Navy) 21,361 35,548 31,300 however, are based on probable produc- Nonmilitary 6,272 20,662 10,932 Maritime - 17 9 tion: they don't take into account pre- FEA vious deficiencies or the calls for 1,533 5,036 1,947 WFA tractors pouring in from all theaters 1,806 4,744 2,890 Canada 332 671 551 of operations. The Army figures that OCR actual requirements are at least 35,000. 448* 446 ODT 224* 227 OWU SQUEEZE ON CIVILIANS 546 36* 81 Gov. Div. (WPB) The Army has been getting over 75% 1,775 359 PAW of track-laying production for the last 242 1,193 400 two years. (Under War Production Board WPB: Lumber & allocations it is entitled to a rule- Pulpwood 1,199 5,081 2,550 of-thumb 85% share of every manufactur- WPB: Mining 614 1,437 907 Reserve er's output, but hasn't been claiming 565 Total its quota of some models-for example, 27,633 56,210 42,232 the small Class V type.) Because of *Tentative estimate, or based on in- this large proportion, allotments have adequate information. perforce been scant for civilian heavy These figures represent the pattern work: pushing and pulling for loggers, of distribution, not definite promises: CONFIDENTIAL MAY 6, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL ... 5 they're based on percentages of sched- ting 60% of the parts, but because of uled production. If schedules aren't heavy military demands their quota is met-and production has been lagging being cut to 35%. (chart, below) because of manpower All but the smallest track-laying and component shortages-allotmentswill tractors also require allied equipment be cut proportionately. -dozers, shovels, cranes, winches, Furthermore, production of repair power-control units, etc.-and use more parts, in order tokeep the limited sup- of it than they used to. Before the ply of tractors going, has been a heavy war, for example; about 15% of tractors drain on facilities. Parts output in were equipped with winches; now about 1943 ran to about $100,000,000, as com- 70% have them. Production of winches pared with an estimated $110,000,000 has accordingly jumped from 1,800 in for tractors. Civilians have been get- the first quarter of 1943 to 4,500 in KEEPING TRACK OF TRACK-LAYING TRACTORS First-quarter output rose sharply, yet lagged 5% behind sharply rising schedule. Production must increase 46% in the last quarter of this year. 12 12 Tractor Production" Schedule THOUSANDS OF TRACTORS 8 6 Actual 4 4 THOUSANDS OF TRACTORS o o Ist Qtr. 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr ist Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr lst Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. 1st Qtr. 1942 1943 1944 1945 And here's how production of different types has shifted from year to year: 1944 1942 1943 TYPE V TYPE TYPE IV TYPE If TYPE III 26,000 24,800 38,400 . Excluding agricultural, airborne, and tonk-type models. WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 6 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK Lotest Preceding Month 6 Months Year Week Week Ago Ago Ago Wor program-Checks poid (millions of dollars) 1,710 1,630 1,594 1,536 2,112 Wor bond soles-E, F, G (millions of dollars) 245 157 239 194 720 Money in circulation (millions of dollars) 21,396 21,334 21,037 19,090 16,593 Wholesole prices (1926 100) All commodities 103.7 103.6" 103.7 102.8 103.5 Form products 123.1 122.9" 123.9 122.2 124.3 Foods 104.7 104.4 104.2 105.0 108.7 All Other 98.5 98.5" 98.3 97.5 96.9 Petroleum: Total U.S. stocks* (thousands of borrels) 410,660 411,718" 413,122* 424,503 436,337 Total Eost Coost stocks* (thousands of borrels) 56,568 56,439 55,844 64,336 43,445 East Coast receipts (thousands of borrels, daily averoge) 1,794 1,700 1,750 1,588 1,262 Bituminous cool production (thousands of short tons, daily averoge). 2,042 1,958 1,979 1,888 1,973 Steel operations (% of capacity) 99.5 100.0 98.7 100.0 98.2 Freight cars unlooded for export, excluding grain (doily average) Atlantic Coast ports 3,150 3,115 3,457 2,417 1,673 Gulf Coost ports 357 316 452 405 376 Pocific Coast ports 1,686 1,690 1,365 1,259 1,149 Department store soles (% change from o year ago) +17 -11 +32 +11 -5 p. Preliminory "Excludes military-owned stocks Γ. Revised the first quarter of this year, with ease the critical situations in lumber unfilled orders for 13,600 more. And and coal. The Lumber Division is down though production of auxiliary equip- for less than 20% of its requests for ment has so far kept pace pretty well Class I tractors; the Mining Division, with tractors, manpower may create short- for only 40%. ages later in the year. Biggest slash was taken by the Gov- Most critical shortage is in the ernment Division, which puts in requests biggest tractors: the 86hp-130hp Class on behalf of federal, state, and local I (especially the Caterpillar D-8). The agencies. It asked for 1,775 tractors Army wants 5,500 of these, is slated to of all classes, chiefly for road main- get only 3,200. Civilian agencies have tenance; it's getting only 359. And been allotted only 600, or 25% of their before the war, government agencies were stated requirements. the largest purchasers, taking about 5,500 track-laying tractors a year. In LUMBER AND COAL NEEDS the last two years, they have not only Of these, 410 are going half and half had practically no replacements but have to WPB's Lumber and Mining Divisions. handed over about 10% of their equipment Only big tractors can clear roads, handle to the Army: now they are down to some the big logs of the Pacific Northwest, 15,000 tractors, of which a third are source of nearly half of the U.S. lumber so badly worn that normally they would supply; likewise they're indispensable be retired. County agencies alone fig- for strip coal mining. Nevertheless ure their requirements at 1,500. these allotments can't be expected to What this means concretely is brought CONFIDENTIAL MAY 6, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL 7 SCORECARD ON MERCHANT SHIPPING Sinkings of United Nations vessels in April hold at March level, deliveries rise for third successive month, and nearly 1,500,000 deodweight tons are odded to the fleet. 3000 3000 Sinkings vs. Construction* 2000 2000 Construction Schedule 1000 Sinkings 1000 o o +2000 +2000 Net Loss (or Gain)-Monthly Gain THOUSANDS OF DEADWEIGHT TONS +1000 +1000 o o THOUSANDS OF DEADWEIGHT TONS Loss -1000 -1000 +10,000 +10,000 The Cumulative Deficit or Surplus +5000 +5000 o o -5000 -5000 -10,000 -10,000 -15,000 -15,000 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 *Includes all types of vessels except those in Novol service, WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 8 ... CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS out by a typical emergency call from a ings on used tractors, now 55% of the county in Georgia. A recent stormwashed new price on all tractors sold "as is": out roads: the county no longer had a (3) purchases by the Defense Supplies serviceable tractor, nor was one avail- Corporation when tractors come on the able within 200 miles. As a result, market: and (4) requisitioning when schools had to be closed, an Army camp necessary. While these arrangements are was isolated, no heavy trucks could get being worked out, field men are already through toa pulpwood mill, many workers at work locating used tractors and get- couldn't get to the Brunswick shipyard. ting their owners in touch with nearby It took at least two weeks to obtain a war contractors who need them. tractor for this county. In addition, efforts will be made to Other agencies, however, can make expedite productionat Berwick, an Army- out just as strong a case for their financed plant that is just beginning claims. There's no substitute for a to turn out Class II Caterpillar-Model track-laying tractor. And so WPB is D-7 tractors. Originally scheduled to working on the only solution-to increase come into full production of 1,000 trac- the available supply. tors amonth by early this summer, Ber- wick has been held up by component short- TRACKING THEM DOWN ages, right now isn't slated to reach Immediate job is to pull in some of this level until November. All of Ber- the 22,000 used tractors in the hands wick's tractors will go to the Army, of contractors and distributors, many but by relieving the military deficit of which are idle or underutilized be- next year they should make more big ones cause of the declining construction available for civilians. program. Proposals include (1) sub- Finally, now under consideration is contracting: (2) raising OPA price ceil- a proposal to expand facilities for the WAR BOND SALES SLUMP SHARPLY And redemptions are up. In March, net sales of peoples bonds dropped to lowest point in two years. For every five sold, two were redeemed. Reason: income tax. 2500 2500 Redemptions vs. Soles And here's the cumulative picture: Series E 2000 2000 Redemptions 10% MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1500 Total Soles 1500 1000 1000 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS Outstanding 90% 500 500 Net Soles Total Soles - $ 21,200,000,000 o Redemptions o 1941 1942 1943 1944 WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL MAY 6, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL ... 9 production of Class I tractors. This, a healthy reminder that the maturing however, would be a long-term project war program hasn't outgrown all its aimed at 1945 and 1946 requirements. problems, still isn't old enough to Meanwhile track-laying tractors are take care of itself. More Buffaloes, Ducks; Alligators Out Schedules for these land-and-water vehicles an amphibian jeep made by Ford-is no rise steodily this year. Navy, ofter falling longer in production; it was never de- behind its timetable on unarmored craft, signed for combat service. ran ahead of gool in April. Alligators and Water Buffaloes are procured by the Navy. They are tracked AMPHIBIOUS FIGHTING CRAFT-Alligators, landing vessels (LVTs). The Alligator Water Buffaloes, and Ducks-which lumber -the LVT (1)-is unarmored; it was the and out of water and go ashore shoot- first of its type and is no longer pro- ing, have taken their place with radar duced. Buffaloes are made both with as storybook weapons of the war. They armor and without; the armored ones are have conquered water, the age-old bar- amphibious tanks. LVTs are equipped rier of advancing troops. with rocket guns, light artillery, and Their effectiveness was demonstrated rapid-fire arms. They are not quite so recently in the capture of key airdromes long as Ducks, but weigh more unarmored in Hollandia. The Japanese, believing and several times more armored. they could block the path of advancing Americans, concentrated their forces at DUCKS COME CHEAP a pocket formed by Lake Sentani and a In dollar value, the LVT program for small river. But the Yanks by-passed this year nearly triples the Duck pro- the Japs by crossing six miles of the gram-$342,000.000 as against $129,000,- lake, and before the enemy could re- 000. An LVT costs $26,000 unarmored, organize itsdefenses had taken posses- $30,000 armored, compared with $10,000 sion of the airfields. for the Duck. But numerically, the two The Ducks are procured by the Army: programs are about the same. they are water- and land-going, six- Ducks came into the Army program late wheel-drive trucks of two and one-half in 1942; 235 were delivered that year. ton capacity. They carry both cargo and In 1943 production rose to 4,500, and personnel, and mount rocket guns and this year the schedule calls for 12,600. machine guns. The Duck has a waterline Production of Ducks has never been a length of nearly 29 feet, and weighs problem. Output has consistently equaled six and a half tons. A propeller mounted or bettered schedules. March deliveries at the hull's rear drives it through of 1,400 were on the nose and near the water. The same engine powers it on peak. Apriland May schedules call for both land and sea. A winch in front 1,450. After that the goal drops to assists the vehicle in pulling out of 1,000 monthly through November. boggy shore ground when wheel traction Although in the first three months is insufficient. Land speed is 60 miles of this year the LVTs missed schedule, an hour, water speed more than six. A they were up to the mark last month. smaller version of the Duck-the Quack, Unarmored LVTs entered the Navy pro- CONFIDENTIAL 10 ... CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS AMPHIBIOUS FIGHTERS Production of Navy tracked landing vessels is due to rise 400% this year; Army - procured amphibious trucks, nearly 200%. 2000 2000 Navy LVTs Army Amphibious Trucks (Buffoloes and Alligators) (Ducks) 1500 1500 UNITS 1000 1000 UNITS 500 500 Armored Unarmored o 0 JFMAM J J A N J F JJASOND JFMAM J ASOND J 1943 1944 1943 1944 NOTE: Actual production through March, April I schedule thereofter WAR PROGRESS gram back in 1941 and output has been (preliminary) were 680, against the April rising sharply ever since. On the other 1 schedule of 610. Schedules rise grad- hand, the armored version didn't get ually to 1,090 in October, as follows: into production until last year although three experimental models were turned Unarmored out in 1942. Here are the figures: 1944 Deliveries Schedule* January 341 514 Unarmored Armored February 397 675 LVTs LVTs March 604 725 (units) April 680 610 1941 72 0 May - 630 1942 851 3 June - 680 1943 1,854 488 July - 752 1944 8,624 3,212 August - 875 Two newmodels-LVT (3) and (4)-which September - 1,025 replace the earlier version of the un- October - 1,090 armored LVTs enter the program in the November - 1,091 first quarter of this year: and produc- December - 526 tion was not on schedule. Only 1,342 "January 1 schedules through March: were delivered in the three months, April 1 thereafter. against the January 1 materials planning Schedules for armored LVTs have been schedules of 1,900. But output has been considerably lower and deliveries beat rising rapidly: deliveries in April schedules in three of the first four CONFIDENTIAL MAY 6, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL II months of this year. The goal for April practically evenwith March. The most- had been stepped up sharply to 360, but wanted models in the program came through changes in Army requirements as of March according to plan or better, with the 28 resulted in the Navy lowering the exception of the B-29 Superfortress and schedule to 185. From now on through the P-51 Mustang. October the armored schedules remain near the March level of production-181. MUSTANG IMPROVED But from 185 units in October, the sched- Because of a lag at Boeing, Wichita, ule rises to 329 in November. only 51 Superfortresses were accepted new and improved armored type-the as against the 70 called for. And be- LVT (A-4)-came into the program in cause North American's Inglewood and March; 23 were delivered. The monthly Dallas plants were shifting to an im- schedule rises sharply from 95 in April proved version of the Mustang, the 407 to 185 in June. During the last half turned out were 100 short of the goal; of the year it will be the only armored however, the deficit was confined to the type produced. first half of the month. Acceptances were picking up sharply toward the end. Plane Uptrend Halted In Forts and Liberators, it was the same satisfying story. They were right on Acceptances fall below March, fail to meet schedule, with 1,365 accepted. schedule first time this year. But def- On the whole, however, production of icit is largely in nontactical types; most desired tactical planes increased enough of wanted models come through. to of fset the drop in nontactical types and "dying" models. As a result of A 14-MONTH UPTREND in airplane produc- smart gains in the P-38 Lightning, P-47 tion was interrupted last month. Not Thunderbolt, F6F Hellcat, and the newly since January, 1943, when output slumped named P-63 Kingcobra, fighters as a following the extraordinary end-of-the- group were on schedule. The complete year cleanup in December, have accept- record of changes by major groups is ances of planes failed to show an in- shown below (airframe-weight basis): crease in weight over the preceding month. Moreover, the schedule was missed April Acceptances for the first time this year-by 3%- as % of notwithstanding the fact that it largely March W-10 took account of the five Sundays in All military planes 92% 97% April. During January, February, and Combat planes .... 91 98 March, production topped schedule by 2%. Superbombers 85 73 April acceptances ran to 8,331 planes, Heavy bombers ... 90 100 Patrol bombers 342 below schedule. (The press reported 76 87 a total of 8,343, but that included 12 Medium bombers 93 101 experimental planes accepted in pre- Light bombers 92 95 vious months and not heretofore report- Fighters (incl. ed.) However almost three-fifths of the naval reconn.) 95 100 drop was in nontactical planes: the Transports 104 98 Trainers lighter-weight trainers, communications, 89 86 Communications and special purpose. And so production 85 91 of 3,296,000 pounds per working day was Work on the hard-to-make A-26 Invader CONFIDENTIAL 12 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS Hours and Earnings - Food Production Same Same Lotest Preceding 2 Months 6 Months Year Month Month Month Month Ago Ago Ago 1939 1937 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS (dollors) All monufacturing industries 45.54 45.15 44.58 43.52 41.12 23.54 23.63 Durable goods 51.48 51.32 50.50 49.61 47.12 25.72 26,16 Nondurable goods 36.33 35.91 35.61 34.55 32.47 21.83 21.54 Bituminous coal mining 52.99 52.52 52.72 46.15 41.49 24.29 24.65 Metolliferous mining 43.98 43.71" 44.01 45.31 41.61 27.38 28.89 AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS (cents) All manufacturing industries 100,3 100.1" 99.5 96.5 92.4 63.1 58.2 Duroble goods 110,0 110,0* 109.3 106,0 102.0 69.5 62.0 Nonduroble goods 84.1 83.7 83.2 81.1 77.3 58,2 54.8 Bituminous coal mining 117.8 119.6 118.8 115.0 111.3 88,4 79.7 Metalliferous mining 99.2 99.3" 99.2 98.3 94.7 69.0 65.9 AVERAGE HOURS PER WEEK All manufacturing industries 45.4 45.2 44.8 45.1 44.5 37.3 40.6 Duroble goods 46.8 46.7 46.2 46.8 46.2 37.0 42.2 Nonduroble goods 43.2 42.9 42.8 42.6 42.0 37.5 39.3 Bituminous coal mining 45.2 44.0* 44.7" 40.3 37.0 27.6 31.4 Metalliferous mining 44.3 43.9 44.2 46.0 43.6 39.9 43.9 FOOD PRODUCTION Dairy products (million pounds) Butter, creamery 123.3' 140.1 142.6 121.1 Cheese 76.7° 74.3 51.0 45.7 Evoporated milk 267.8 € 252,3 179.8 153.3 Meats-total (incl. lard, million pounds) 1,989.0 1,490.0 1,067.0 1,006.0 Beef and vegl 609.7 534.1 439.6 453.7 Lomb and mutton 66,6 64.8 63.4 53.8 Pork, incl. lard 1,312.7 891.5 563.7 498.8 Lord 249.0 8 136.4 96.1 76.6 Poultry and eggs Eggs (millions) 6,763 5,346 4,436 3,304 6,462 4,624 4,492 Poultry (receipts of 5 principal 18.7 23.0 30.7 42.6 14.3 17.9 20,0 markets, million pounds) Hours and Earnings, February; Food Production, March. r Revised. e Estimated. B Seasonal influences invalidate month-to-month comparisons. light bomber is beginning to show up: One of the best showings was in the C-46 not only did Douglas, Long Beach, meet Commando at Curtiss, Buffalo: 91 were its schedule of 10 planes, but with accepted as compared with 71 in March Beech at Wichita rolling on subassem- and a reduced goal of 90. blies, the Douglas plant at Tulsa turned Debut of the month was the F7F-the out five, or three better than planned. Navy's only 2-engined fighter-at Grum- In all, 15 Invaders were accepted last man, Bethpage. One came through as month compared with eight in March. scheduled. This year's docket calls for Acceptances are still several months off 120. Navy combat pilots who recently from combat volume. tried out a test model at the plant say it's sensational. Another newcomer was PICKUP IN TRANSPORTS the SC Seahawk, at Curtiss, Columbus: Although the C-54 Skymaster fell three were accepted-one more than sched- slightly behind schedule at Douglas, uled. The Seahawk isa long-range naval Chiçago, production of transports is reconnaissance plane and packs three responding to the special drive to get times the horsepower of its predecessor, them out of plants and into the air. the SC3C Seamew. CONFIDENTIAL War Progress is loaned to you for official use. It contains CONFIDENTIAL information affecting the security of the United States. Revelation of its contents in any manner to unauthorized persons is prohibited by the Espionage Act. OFFICIAL RULES for its CUSTODY (1) Not to permit Information from any copy in their custody to become available to anyone except a Government employee under their immediate supervision who will be bound by the restrictions hereby agreed to and who requires access to WAR PROGRESS in connection with his official duties. (2) To keep alt copies in a securely locked container when not actually in use, (3) Not to incorporate information from WAR PROGRESS in any record unless the use of such record is restricted as if the record were itself a copy of WAR PROGRESS. (4) To give pri in written notice of any change of address. (5) On written request, or before separation from the Govern- ment position which entitles them to receive WAR PRO- GRESS, to return all copies charged to their account WAR PROGRESS Disclosure Punishable Under Expionage Aa will 6(3) or (6) go Date MAR 141973 21 aux. Economic Data Special Articles Forge GA W-W 0.5 UNITED STATES OF AMERICA WAR PRODUCTION BOARD S- 84976 COURIER SERVICE CONTROL RECORD FROM: TO: STATISTICS DIVISION the President - mames TITLE mat While House ROOM NUMBER: - - (BUILDING) DESCRIPTION of DOCUMENTI 192 3 1 COPY 3 THE SERIAL NUMBER IN THE UPPER RIGHT-HAND CORNER Addressee's Copy SHOULD BE IDENTICAL TO NUMBER ON SENDER'S RECEIPT --- - The President 1 67. WAR PROGRESS E BOUSE Confidental RECEIVED Disclosure Punishable Under Expirate Act DECLASSIVIED B.O. 13562 Bee, 8(5) nad 5(1) - (F) Commence Dept. Latter, 11-16-72 By EUR, DOBAK 1% 19/3 A Stab at Postwar Surpluses 4735 14351 1938 Number 192 May 20, 1944 1 WAR PROGRESS Prepared in the War Production Board Donald M. Nelson, Chairman War Progress is a confidential report designed to provide a coordinated and continuing picture of the overall war program for the various war agencies. To this end, it presents, analyzes, and interprets basic statistical and economic information, and from time to time examines the pros and cons of controversial questions. Although War Progress is an official put lication of the War Production Board, statements in it are not to be construed as expressing official attitudes of the Board as a whole, or even of individual members. Conclusions, whenever reached, should be considered editorial conclusions. War Progress is prepared in the Bureau of Planning and Statistics (Stacy May, Director) by the Munitions Branch (Morris A, Copeland, Chief). Editorial Staff Editor, Joseph A. Livingston; Associates: Thomas A. Falco, Roy T. Frye (drafting), Winona Hibbard Morris Katz, Chester L. Kieffer, John C. Loeser, Herbert J. Muller, J.S. Werking (production). Contributors Joseph A. Zettler ( munitions ), William F. Butler (aircraft), J. Ronald Meiklejohn (communications and electronics), Herbert Stain (economics). This report contains CONFIDENTIAL information affecting the defense of the United States. See inside back cover for rules of custody. CONFIDENTIAL NUMBER 192 WAR PROGRESS MAY 20, 1944 Sizing Up the Salable Surpluses Widely used $50,000,000,000 to $75,000,000;- 5. Finished goods procured by the 000 estimate is for too high; $15,000,000,- armed forces, such as blankets, shoes, 000 seems earthier- covers goods and motor vehicles, tanks, planes, ships, stocks disposable in domestic market. etc. 6. Stockpiles, procured by Recon- WHEN the war ends, the United States struction Finance Corporation subsidi- will have substantial surpluses. These aries and other war agencies. These surpluses range from pins to battle- would include copper, tin, industrial ships, from underclothing to industrial diamonds, mica, kapok, rubber, and so on. facilities. And though they have to be 7. Inventories in the hands of con- disposed of, it does not follow that they tractors, including raw materials, goods are necessarily disposable, or salable, in process, and government-furnished on the open market, or that they will equipment. be sold in this country. WAR PROGRESS has previously analyzed Perhaps that explains why estimates the composition of government-owned of postwar federally owned surpluses facilities (WP-Janl'44,p4), and has come have been so big. Figures of from $50,- to the conclusion that about $9,600,- 000,000,000 to $75,000,000,000 have been 000.000 of the $15,500,000,000 of plant freely cited, have generally gone un- and equipment could be put to peacetime questioned. However, any estimate, to use. get that high, would have to include Not all of that $9,600,000,000 could large quantities of war materiel-tanks, bombers, guns, ammunition, warships- hardly the type of stuff to cram civil- POSTWAR SURPLUSES ian markets. Are not so big as generally believed. A more realistic figure of stuff Here's on estimate* of salable stuff which would have to be sold domestically in the postwar domestic market. -including plants and equipment but excluding merchant ships-would seem GOV'T STOCKPILE to be around $15,000,000,000. To be WAR sure, such an estimate requires rough- HOUSING and-ready figuring. It's impossible to nail down a postwar statistic when the INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURERS FACILITIES war still awaits its all-out offensive INVENTORIES phase. But at least an attempt can be made to bring the scary $50,000,000,000- ARMY-NAVY to-$75,000,000,000 figure to book. MERCHANDISE Seven main types of surpluses have to be considered, as follows: 1. Industrial facilities. $15,000,000,000 "WAR PROGRESS estimole 2. Merchant ships. 3. Military construction. WAR PROGRESS 4. War housing. CONFIDENTIAL 2 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS be readily sold. Some would be in out- market was to sell shipping services. of-the-way places-far from raw mate- (Foreign ships have consistently operated rials or civilian markets-many plants at lower cost than U.S. ships.) were constructed inland for security Obviously, the disposal of the mer- reasons. Also, some factories are in chant marine isan international problem. high-cost production areas-power may In the meantime, in the period immedi- be expensive. Furthermore, some plants ately after the war, relief and reha- are probably too large for peacetime bilitation requirements will keep most conversion. Probably less than two- of the ships in the world busy for some thirds willactually come on the market time. Net additions to the U.S. mer- in competition with prewar industrial chant fleet during the war have run to plants. That would mean about $6,000,- about $10,000,000,000; from that, per- 000,000. haps $3,000,000,000 should be deducted for depreciation. But that depreciated INTERNATIONAL PROBLEM value possibly would not prevail in a Merchant ships are also to be re- postwar market. Moreover, the figure garded as facilities. However, in this is mentioned here merely for perspective. case disposition depends almost con- Merchant ships are not being included clusively on Congress: Shall this coun- in the WAR PROGRESS calculation of mar- try maintain a merchant marine? If so, ketable surpluses. How they're disposed how? Shall it be subsidized? And how of will depend more on international big shall the merchant marine be? Be- negotiation than on economic values. fore thewar, this country carried only a small proportion of its commerce in PENNIES ON THE DOLLAR U.S. bottoms: but after the war this Military construction-air fields, country will emerge with a fleet easily camps, warehouses, etc.-is ina special twice the size of Great Britain's. It category. What is disposable after the will be more than able to take care of war depends on how big a military es- America's prospective volume of foreign tablishment the country maintains. Some trade. Thus, instead of being a buyer air fields may be sold or leased to of cargo space, the United States could states or cities: some may be sold to become a seller. Yet, heretofore, one commercial lines. Some will be aban- way foreign countries have managed to doned. Some warehouses may be commer- obtain dollars to buy goods in this cially useful. But many camps, not used for military purposes, will have to be junked. All told, $10,000,000.000 has IN THIS ISSUE: been spent on this type of construction. But the commercial sale of such struc- SIZING UP THE SALABLE SURPLUSES 1 tures and equipment would have to be MIDMONTHLY PLANE TALLY: BACK IN PLUS COLUMN 5 reckoned in pennies on the dollar and KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK 6 might not run to as much as $1,000,000,- OUT OF THE WAR, INTO THE PEACE 7 000. Certainly, it does not bulk large TWO SIDES TO THE INVASION (CHART) 9 in postwar markets. Because the amount MORE AID TO THE U.K. depends almost exclusively on the size 10 BOOMING PENICILLIN (CHART) of the postwar military establishment, 12 no estimate of disposable value is in- WAR PROGRESS NOTES 12 cluded here. CONFIDENTIAL MAY 20, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL 3 adifferent category is government runs to about $1,000,000,000 a month. war housing. About $2,000,000,000 has In addition, an allowance must be made been spent on homes in war production for certain types of combat items which areas. But a good part of this-more will have a peacetime function-trans- than 40%-consists of temporary struc- port planes, motor vehicles, signal tures, which probably will be scrapped. equipment. This is estimated to run to Somewhat less than $1,000,000,000 of about $250,000,000 a month. It is true these dwellings will be of fered for sale, that some of these items-such as loco- but probably at sharp discounts from motives or planes-have a long life and cost. However, in the WAR PROGRESS com- can be sold as used equipment. But putation, the figure carried is $1,000,- shirts, shorts, shoes, etc. have a shorter 000,000, though it overstates the case. life and virtually no resale value, once used. So the six months' allowance, MILITARY STOCKS? though admittedly rough, tends to iron Hardest type of surplus to estimate out the differences. Thus the total in is the size and dollar value of Army this category comes to $1,250,000,000 a and Navy stocks on hand. Most of the month; sosix months' supply would come stuff, however, will hardly be merchant- to $7,500,000,000. able. To be sure, some transport planes The United States will not have to built for war use may be sold for cargo absorball of these surpluses. A large after the war: some others may be used part of the stocks (especially of the for passenger travel-but not many, com- durable-goods type) will be in Europe pared with total supply. Tactical air- and the Far East when hostilities cease. planes have been constructed for high Most of this will probably be used for speeds; they would be uneconomical and relief and rehabilitation. Indeed, it uncomfortable for peacetime use. Some, is likely that a considerable part of also, might be used for civilian teaching the Army and Navy inventories warehoused purposes. However, for the most part, at home also will be shipped abroad. war materiel, including planes, will be As much as half, if not more, will prob- employed in training future soldiers, ably never see the U.S. market. Thus will be scrapped, or may be disposed of what remains for sale here would be about to foreign countries. Since obsolescence $3,750,000,000; let's round it up to in combat equipment runs high, the in- $4,000,000,000. ference is that for a long time this country will have plenty of high-grade CONSUMPTION NO PROBLEM steel, copper, aluminum scrap, and scrap In prewar years, that would have components. amounted to only about one and one-half Once the strictly fighting stuff is months' consumption. And since in post- excluded, Army and Navy holdings come war years consumption will be greater, down to distinctly manageable totals. that amount of merchantable stock will On V-Day the services may have on hand hardly tax America's capacity to con- about six months' production of miscel- sume. Inevitably, there will be embar- laneous military equipment-civilian- rassing concentrations of surpluses of type goods, such as railroad equipment, certain types of goods or equipment. construction machinery, shoes, clothing, Work-shoe markets might be crowded by petroleum, blankets, kitchen utensils, Army and Navy supplies; blankets might and so on. Currently such procurement be cheap, or automobile parts may be CONFIDENTIAL 4 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS superabundant. Yet by and large the gaining, not losing, territory and re- total seems readily digestible. Bear- sources. Hence, goals are being re- ing on this, military officials are examined and frequently reduced. acutely conscious of their responsi- In some cases, current stockpiles bility for possible postwar gluts and are large compared with peacetime con- are trying to modulate inventories ac- sumption. In industrial diamonds, for cordingly-yet without in any way skimp- example, government stocks amount to ing on what are considered useful re- 6,000,000 carats against 1939 consump- quirements to carry on the war. tion of 2,000,000; in quartz crystals, As to stockpiles, the Joint Chiefs 950,000 pounds of radio grade against of Staff have authorized the War Pro- 1939 consumption of 67,000. However, duction Board to reduce reserves of bare statistics tend to oversimplify- critical war materials whenever, in the and hence exaggerate-the potential light of probable requirements, it seems postwar problem. The marketing of dia- safe to do so. Thus, aluminum potlines monds isstrictly controlled: the post- have been shut down to prevent piling war surplus will be readily susceptible up of the metal. Premium purchases of to orderly control, evenif some stocks mercury and tungsten have been stopped, are not held as a permanent military and restrictions on the use of molyb- reserve against future emergencies. And denum, vanadium, and other once-critical for quartz crystals, the promised era metals have been eased. of electronics holds possibilities of greatly expanded consumption. DIVERS STOCKS Even inmaterials in which large re- All told, the government has built serves have been built up, the postwar up stocks of about 100 commodities, in- problem of disposal can be exaggerated. cluding suchmetals as copper, lead, and The nation will have a much greater ca- zinc; minerals such as diamonds, quartz pacity to produce and consume than in crystals, mica, and sapphires: drugs, 1939 and 1940; hence stocks that look such as ipecac, belladonna leaves, and large by prewar standards may not be quinine: chemicals, such as benzol and unwieldy in the postwar period. ethyl alcohol: textiles, such as burlap and cotton sheetings: fibers, such RS RESERVES FOR FUTURE hemp, jute, kapok: and such miscellany Moreover, the prospect is that some as crude rubber, asbestos, horsehair, raw materials will be immobilized-kept and used silk hosiery. as permanent military stocks. These Stockpile objectives have risen and might include tin, manganese ore, indus- fallen with the fortunes of war. But trial diamonds, sapphires, mica, and in the case the of only a few commodities- perhaps some ferroalloys. Indeed, the such as bismuth, belladonna leaves, heart of the matter is not the stock- mercury, and iodine, for example-have piles themselves, but rather the enor- the goals been reached (WP-Marl8'44,p8). mous capacity of the country to produce. At the outset, the need was to build up How to dispose of surplus aluminum will supplies to guard against all contin- be far less of a brain-tester than how gencies-such as sinkings and losses of to use the nation's new aluminum capac- territory. Today, however, sinkingsare ity. Though no exact total isavailable, comparatively small, cargo space is in- WAR PROGRESS figures that the dollar creasing, and the United Nations are value of stockpiles now amounts toabout CONFIDENTIAL MAY 20, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL 5 $1,000,000,000. The probability is that only for scrap. No positive estimate between now and the end of the war this can be made about how much of these total will not get much larger. And how inventories will be retained by the con- much is left over-to be sold after V- tractors for postwar production or will Day-depends on how much is held as a be salable to other manufacturers. reserve for future wars. But 30%, counting in government-furnished equipment, has been frequently used by MANUFACTURERS' INVENTORIES persons in industry. It's not likely In addition, inventories of manufac- to be far off. That would run to $3,- turers must be considered. Today those 000,000,000, and would comprise raw of munitions contractors run to about materials, work in process, and finished $10,000,000,000. But a large part of components and parts. the stocks on hand are special purpose Government agencies. such as the Army -even raw materials, such as steel, and Navy, the War Food Administration, come in odd sizes or melts for munitions, and the Commodity Credit Corporation and may not be suitable for peacetime will also hold fairly large stocks of production. Hence, it would be good food. But the world, immediately after MIDMONTHLY PLANE TALLY: BACK IN PLUS COLUMN PLANE production should return to the wood and Dallas, turned out only 142, plus column this month. Although the versus the full-month docket of 583. 4,043 planes accepted in the first 15 Both plants are switching to an im- days were 52 fewer than in the like proved P-51. Although Detroit strikes period of April, airframe weight was included Packard, sole source of the 2% ahead. The full-month schedule Mustang's Merlin engine, this won't calls for an airframe-weight gain of be a limiting factor in May's P-51 7% over April; but May has two more output. But it will intensify an al- working days than April, and an on- ready tight position-capacity in the schedule performance seems feasible. last half of this year is some 5,000 All major tactical groups looked engines short of requirements. good at the end of the first 15 days At Curtiss, Buffalo, the assembly with the exception of Army 1-engined line was slowed by additional modifi- fighters. Only 605 were accepted com- cations on the C-46 Commando: only 26 pared with 728 in the like period a were accepted as against the full- month ago. The schedule rises 9%. month schedule of 124. However, other The May goal of 1,403 Forts and medium transports were responding Liberators was well in hand at the nicely to the special production drive mid-point, with more than half this in that group: 289 C-47 Skytrains and total accepted. But the schedule of Skytroopers rolled off the assembly 82 Superf or tresses looked somewhat out line, 11% ahead of the first half of of reach despite the fact that accept- April. The May schedule is 530. ances of 31 ran ahead of last month's 22. Three of Budd's stainless-steel Likewise, the P-51 Mustang seems Conestoga transports came through in headed for its second successive off- the first 15 days. The Conestoga, a schedule month. North American, Ingle- Navy plane, made its debut in March. CONFIDENTIAL 6 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK Latest Preceding Month 6 Months Year Week Week Ago Ago Ago Wor program - Checks paid (millions of dollars) 1,826 1,776 1,912 1,937 1,593 Wor bond soles-E,F,G (millions of dollars) 169 169 170 188 131 Money in circulation (millions of dollars) 21,725 21,614 21,295 19,514 16,741 Wholesole prices (1926:100) All commodities 103.7 * 103.7 103.6 102.9 103.8 Form products 122.4' 123.3 124.5 122.1 125.7 Food 104.6 105.0 104.4 105.5 110.2 All Other 98.6 98.6 98.5 97.5 96.9 Petroleum: Total U.S. stocks (thousands of borrels) 409,385 410,610 412,388 425,925 432,846 Total Eost Coost stocks* (thousands of borrels) 57,308 56,067 50,732 65,946 44,430 East Coast receipts (thousands of borrels, daily average) 1,606 1,762 1,735 1,558 1,299 Bituminous cool production (thousands of short tons, daily average) 2,025 2,060 2,003 499 1,695 Steel operations (% of capacity) 99.2 99.4 100.0 99.3 98.6 Freight cors unloaded for export, excluding groin(daily overage) Atlantic Coost ports 3,234 3,440 2,866 2,624 2,104 Gulf Coost ports 381 348 334 398 380 Pacific Coost ports 1,609 1,536 1,600 1,226 1,202 Department store soles (% change from o year ago) +31 *9* +23 +15 +16 Preliminary Excludes militory - owned stocks Revised the war, will be short of foodstuffs: struction machinery, transport planes, little ornone isapt to be sold on this or motor vehicles may be too small: it market. is possible that military stocks all In all, then, the probable size of along the line-from central reserves surpluses which the domestic postwar to reserves in camps and overseas bases market must absorb may look like this -may prove to be far larger than the (with foodstuffs, merchant ships, and six months' estimate admits: it is al- military construction deliberately ex- so possible that a good deal more goods cluded): will be brought back from overseas than Industrial facilities $6,000,000,000 this analysis considers likely. War housing 1,000,000,000 Those risks of error must be run in Army-Navy merchandise 4,000,000,000 any calculation such as this. But er- Government stockpiles 1,000,000,000 rors on the downside may well be offset Manufacturers' inven- by errors on the upside. Moreover, the tories 3,000,000,000 calculation does serve some purpose if Estimated total $15,000,000,000 it brings the $50,000,000.000 to $75,- 000,000,000 closer toreality. Certainly However, it cannot be too specifi- $15,000,000,000 is far closer to the cally emphasized that the result was surplus the nation will have to absorb arrived at by rough-and-ready proce- domestically than the more prevalent dures. The estimate of Army-Navy sur- figure that has been going the rounds. pluses may be too low; the allowances Anditmay serve as a starting point to made for communications equipment, con- get firmer information. CONFIDENTIAL May 20. 1944 CONFIDENTIAL 7 Out of the War, Into the Peace? Lobor-Management Committees have yielded teeism and reducing defective work by 34%. more than 1,000,000 production ideas; General Electric's West Lynn plant: may carry over ofter V-Day. Helps workers spoilage reduced 20% in 1942, up to 10% and bosses get along together." more last year, saving an estimated equivalent in man-hours of 250 experi- BEFORE THE WAR you could count on your enced workers. fingers the number of industrial plants in whi ch management and labor committees ABSENTEEISM CUT 50% met and talked over production plans. Bell Aircraft, Buffalo: absentee rate Today, asa result of the War Production cut from 10.8% in mid-1943 to 5.4% by Drive started early in 1942, there are the beginning of this year, meaning an 4,500 joint committees, covering 7,000,- increase of about 1,500 workers daily- 000 workers in plants ranging in size in one of the most critical labor areas. from less than 100 to more than 40,000 (Incidentally, absences on the "grave- employees. Moreover, what began as just yard" shift and among women workers another patriotic drive-with emphasis dropped to close to the rate of men on on slogans, posters, parades, rallies, the day shift: usually they run about speeches-has developed into a large- double this rate.) scale experiment in industrial relations. Many management-labor committees also promote nutrition and health programs, 1,000,000 AWARDS including in-plant feeding: make trans- Through the committees, more than portation and car-pooling arrangements 1,000,000 awards have been issued to (plants report reaching an average of employees for production ideas. A recent almost four workers to a car): assist one, for example, went to a worker on in housing and child-care problems: invasion gliders who adapted a piano- sponsor bowling leagues, plant news- action pinning machine to nailing glider papers, dances, etc.: aid in recruiting strips, enabling one operator to do the and training new workers: conduct war work of four and saving 45,072 man-hours bond, salvage, blood-donor, and similar a year. Most suggestions are not such campaigns. big savers, butall told they add up to many millions of man-hours gained. WORKER REWARDS In addition, the joint committees Chief function of most committees, often push campaigns to conserve mate- however, is to encourage, review, and rials and tools, reduce absenteeism, reward production ideas from employees. turnover, accidents, spoilage, etc. Here And their success depends largely on are some typical returns: what the company agrees todo in reward- Westinghouse's East Springfieldplant: ing workers. Some rely on patriotic defective work reduced by 25% last year, incentives or purely honorary awards. saving more than 1,000,000 pounds of Others pay hard cash: flat awards for metal. every suggestion adopted, monthly prizes The American Stove Company's Aircraft for the best suggestions, or a percentage Division: production boosted 67% in six (usually 10% or 15%) of the estimated months, chiefly by cutting down absen- annual saving that results. To quiet CONFIDENTIAL 8 ... CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS fears of workers, some companies give Production Board, usually signed by the guarantees against loss of jobs or re- President as well; 16 employees have been duction in take-home pay as a result of cited so far for such accomplishments labor-saving suggestions. as the development of the self-sealing, bullet-proof gasoline tank; an ice-grip SPECIAL HONORS tire design for military aeroplanes; Companies are encouraged to forward and a way to machine magnesium and its production ideas to WPB's War Production aluminum loys which not only eliminated Drive Division, which singles out the a serious fire hazard but speeded out- best for special honors. (Some compa- put by 400%. Other WPB awards to date nies, interested inhoarding their ideas, include some 350 certificates-the next don't report them.) Highest honor is a highest honor-and 1,500 honorable men- citation by the Chairman of the War tions. HANDS ACROSS THE WORKBENCH Here is how and where labor-management committees have been set up to speed production. Unions represent nearly 90% of the workers. WPB Region Clevelond New York No No Union Misc AFL CIO Chicogo CIO AFL Misc Union Philadelphia Boston Son Francisco Detroit TOTAL TOTAL Atlanta No No Kansas City Union Union independent Seottle COO independent UMW Dallas AFL-CIO UMW APL AFL Minneapolis Joint AFL-CIO 4,000 Denver 6,000,000 800 600 400 200 o o 200 400 600 800 1000 NUMBER OF COMMITTEES THOUSANDS OF EMPLOYEES PARTICIPATING Note: Miscelloneous Committees include UMW and Independent Unions, and Joint AFL-CIO Groups WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL MAY 20, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL ... 9 TWO SIDES TO THE INVASION Cars unloaded for export in Pacific ports last month hit on all-time high. Atlantic ports are right up to peak; Gulf ports level. 3200 3200 Freight Cors Unloaded for Export - Daily Average (Rotio Scole) Atlontic Ports 1600 1600 Pacific Ports NUMBER OF FREIGHT CARS UNLOADED 800 800 400 400 Gulf Ports NUMBER OF FREIGHT CARS UNLOADED 200 200 100 IOO J F M A M J J A $ 0 N D J F M A M J J A 5 o N D J F M A M J J A S o N D J 1944 F M A 1941 1942 1943 Note: Data exclude grain. WAR PROGRESS The division sends back bulletins covered by collective bargaining con- about production ideas or devices to tracts are referred back to the unions- all registered management-labor commit- and about 80% of the committees are set tees, so as to "share the progress." up in unionized plants (chart, page 8). Thus a welders' light designed at Marin- But otherwise they vary widely in set- ship to focus on work in dark corners ups, programs, methods. has been copied by 65 other war plants. An example of the variety-and fre- A pick-up finger to insert primers in quent ingenuity-of their approach to 30- and 50-caliber cartridges is now common problems is absenteeism. A few standard equipment in ordnance plants; companies still go in for the dunce-cap it saved $50,000 a year at the plant method-paying absentees in German marks, where it was suggested. awarding Swastikas or Rising Suns, plac- ing bright red AWOL cards in the time JOINT ENTERPRISES rack. But more offer rewards for good The division also supplies the com- attendance records-gold pins, war bonds, mittees with posters, pamphlets, films, theater tickets, rides on delivery cruises and weekly news bulletins. Generally of new destroyers. Others take a still the committees work independently and more positive approach, root out the individually. They all alike in that natural causes of absenteeism instead they are joint enterprises, not company of merely treating the symptoms. They unions, bargaining agencies, or grievance try to eliminate forced loafing due to committees. Questions of hours, wages, failures in the flow of materials and working conditions, and other matters other delays that make workers regard CONFIDENTIAL 10 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS daily attendance as unnecessary: they may also install plant beauty parlors, More Aid to the U.K. provide plant medical care and visiting nurses, maintain household emergency Lend-lease shipments to British Isles reach squads to shut off gas stoves left burn- all-time high; those to Soviet Russio are ing or do other errands for working down. Total exports have been declining wives, etc. This illustrates again the since peak in third quarter of 1943. trend away from patriotic ballyhoo to FIRST-QUARTER lend-lease shipments (in- down-to-earth experiment. cluding planes flown to their destina- tion) amounted to $2,680,000,000, or 5% STILL SOME SKEPTICISM below the $2,830,000,000 total for the The joint committees also differ last quarter of 1943. The peak was widely in energy, enthusiasm, and ef- $3,010,000,000 in the third quarter. fectiveness: some have been perfunctory. Exports to the United Kingdom, at No committees have been set up in 40% $1,180,000,000, reached an all-time high, to 50% of war plants. Some companies due undoubtedly to preparations for the still fear them as a possible encroach- invasion. They constituted 44% of the ment on the province of management: some total to all countries, as against 36% labor leaders are still suspicious of in the last quarter of 1943 and 40% for them as mere gestures or as an opening the full year. wedge for company unions or the speedup. Munitions represented 60% of the ship- Nevertheless most of the companies that ments to the British Isles. Planes, have tried the experiment report satis- in turn, amounted to about one-fourth factory results. Many-especially those of this, followed by guns and ammunition that face stiff competitive problems and combat and automotive vehicles. Of after the war-have already expressed the remaining 40%, industrial products their intention of continuing the com- accounted for slightly more than half, mittees, on the theory that if workers food and other agricultural products have ideas in wartime, they will also for the rest. have them in peacetime. In contrast with the U.K., shipments to Russia declined rather sharply from IMPROVED RELATIONS the fourth-quarter peak in 1943. How- One point seems clear: The commit- ever, the Soviet's ratio to total lend- tees have worked best in plants in which lease exports is about the same as last management-labor relations were good to year-30%, as against 29%-but is con- begin with. However, in some cases- siderably lower than the 35% in the and this was not unexpected-the commit- fourth quarter. Here's how shipments tees have helped to improve relations. to the two principal recipients compare: They have discovered new areas in which U.K. U.S.S.R. Total L-L management and labor can cooperate to (millions of dollars) obvious mutual advantage, yet without 1943 infringement on their established rights. 1st quarter $715 $550 $1,810 As one observer put it, "We've known 2nd quarter 1,175 530 2,430 all along that management and labor can- 3rd quarter 1,160 845 3,010 not get along without one another: now 4th quarter 1,020 990 2,830 we also know that they can get along 1944 with one another." 1st quarter 1,180 805 2,680 CONFIDENTIAL MAY 20, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL ... II IS LEND-LEASE PAST PEAK? Dollar shipments drop tor second consecutive quarter. But exports to Britain are up 16 %; to Russia, down 19%. 4 4 Lend-Lease Exports 3 All 3 Other BILLIONS OF DOLLARS U.S.S.R. 2 - 2 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS Other British Empire I I UK o o 2nd Q 3rd Q 4thQ 1st Q 2ndQ 3rdQ 4mQ let Q 2ndQ. 3rd 4th Q IstQ 1941 1942 1943 1944 WAR PROGRESS Munitions accounted for a little more the U.K. and Soviet Russia have declined than half of the shipments to the So- about a third since the peak in the viet, as compared to 63% back in 1942. third quarter of last year. Here's how Guns and ammunition constituted only 9% first-quarter shipments compare with of the munitions, nearly all the rest the fourth quarter of last year: being planes and combat and automotive 1st Qtr. 4th Qtr. vehicles. Approximately one-third of % 1944 1943 the shipments toRussia were industrial Change (millions) products-the only category in which Grand total $2,680 $2,830 -5% exports to the U.S.S.R. equaled those U.K. to the U.K. The Soviet needs industrial 1,180 1,020 +16 U.S.S.R. 805 990 -19 machinery, steel, chemicals, etc. to rehabilitate the industrial areas re- Egypt 132 202 -35 Australia 78 100 -22 taken from the Nazis. Food and other New Zealand 17 15 +13 agricultural products accounted for 16%. India 142 105 +35 The Red Army has recovered most of the Union of S.A. 25 25 nil croplands, the loss of which caused a Algeria 20 90 -78 severe food shortage in the Soviet Union. Turkey 6 11 -45 Combined first-quarter shipments to Brazil 18 11 +64 the U.K. and the Soviet represented 74% China 13 18 -28 of total lend-lease exports, as against All others 244 243 nil 69% for all of 1943. In dollar value, total shipments to countries other than Next to the U.K., the biggest dollar CONFIDENTIAL 12 ... CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS plans, is a net addition to the program: BOOMING PENICILLIN it is not replacing other models. Production of wonder drug continues Eight experimental T-26s have been to accelerate, rises 67% in May. produced, all by the General Motors Cor- 100 100 poration at the Fisher Body plant in Detroit, which is expected to produce the standardized model. BO 80 The expanded requirements for the new tank have brought a corresponding demand for the 90mm. tank gun M3. None BILLIONS OF UNITS 60 60 BILLIONS OF UNITS had been scheduled for 1945: now the program calls for 2,445, and accounts for 7% of the total army artillery pro- 40 40 gram for next year. 20 20 PENICILLIN PROGRESS PENICILLIN follows a historic economic pattern: as production goes up, prices o o J J A $ o N D F M go down. In May, approximately 100,- J AENIM 1943 1944 000,000,000 units will be produced: six WAR PROGRESS months ago, only 5,000,000,000 were produced (chart, left). Today, the increase WAS to India, one. of the few government pays from $3.00 to $7.50 for countries to show a gain. First-quarter every 100,000 units of penicillin: six shipments to the British Empire as a months ago, the price was $7.50 to $15. whole amounted to about $1,700,000,000, Reason: improved manufacturing tech- as against $1,600,000,000 in the last niques. Output is rising so fast that quarter of 1943. it is difficult to make any future es- timates-either on production or cost. War Progress Notes If the current production rate continues, the original goal-146,000,000,000 units SOMETHING NEW IN TANKS by July, 1944-may be reached sooner. A NEW TANK, the heaviest yet to go into mass production in this country, is out UNLOADS FOR INVASION of the developmental stage. Now known AS THE INTENSITY of Allied operations as the T-26, it will shortly be given increases on all fronts, the tempo of an M designation: it mounts a. 90mm. gun. shipments of food and munitions increases About 100 are due to be produced this also. This is shown in the stepup in year, but next year the schedule rises freight cars unloaded for export. Last sharply-2,645 are called for. In num- month on the Pacific Coast they reached ber, the new model will be the second an all-time high (chart, page 9), 10% largest in the Army program, exceeded ahead of March and 34% greater than a only by the M4, mounting a 76mm. gun, of year ago; unloading in Atlantic ports which 6,100 are on the docket for 1945. was 72% higher than a year ago. Unloads As now outlined, production will along the Atlantic Coast rose just be- gradually rise to 250 & month by the end fore the North African invasion in No- of 1945. The tank, according to present vember, 1943. CONFIDENTIAL War Progress is loaned to you for official use. It contains CONFIDENTIAL information affecting the security of the United States. Revelation of its contents in any manner to unauthorized persons is prohibited by the Espionage Act. OFFICIAL RULES for its CUSTODY (1) Not to permit information from any copy in their custody to become available to anyone except a Government employee under their immediate supervision who will be bound by the restrictions hereby agreed to and who requires access to WAR PROGRESS in connection with his official duties. (2) To keep all copies in a securely locked container when not actually in use. (3) Not to incorporate information from WAR PROGRESS in any record unless the use of such record is restricted as if the record were itself a copy of WAR PROGRESS. (4) To give prior writter/ notice of any change of address. (5) On written request, or before separation from the Govern- ment position which entitles them to receive WAR PRO- GRESS, to return all copies charged to their account. WAR PROGRESS - Disclosure Punishable Under Espionage Act off (R) P.O. 1 Labor, (D) aux, MAR 14 1 1973 Economic Data Special Articles The President 1 WAR PROGRESS Disclosure Punishable Under Espionage Act C7. was Producted Women: In and Out of War Work DECLASSIFIED E.O. 11662, Sec. 8(E) and B(D) or (E) Commerce Dopt. Letter, 11-16-72 By RHP, Date MAR 14 1973 Number 193 May 27, 1944 x120 14935 WAR PROGRESS Prepared in the War Production Board Donald M. Nelson, Chairman War Progress is a confidential report designed to provide a coordinated and continuing picture of the overall war program for the various war agencies. To this end, it presents, analyzes, and interprets basic statistical and economic information, and from time to time examines the pros and cons of controversial questions. Although War Progress is an official publication of the War Production Board, statements in it are not to be construed as expressing official attitudes of the Board as a whole, or even of individual members. Conclusions, whenever reached, should be considered editorial conclusions. War Progress is prepared in the Bureau of Planning and Statistics (Stacy May, Director) by the Munitions Branch (Morris A. Copeland, Chief). Editorial Staff Editor, Joseph A. Livingston; Associates: Thomas A. Falco, Roy T. Frye (drafting), Winona Hibbard Morris Katz, Chester L. Kieffer, John C. Loeser, Herbert J. Muller, J.S. Werking (production). Contributors Joseph A. Zettler ( munitions ), William F. Butler (aircraft ). J. Ronald Meiklejohn (communications and electronics), Herbert Stom (economics). This report contains CONFIDENTIAL information affecting the defense of the United States. See inside back cover for rules of custody. CONFIDENTIAL NUMBER 193 WAR PROGRESS MAY 27, 1944 Women Get Out Faster Than Men Five out of every 100 women are separated greater than of men (WP-Apr8'44, D4). from factories, as against only two per 100 Women who are under pressure to re- men. Many return to homes, thus cutting turn to household duties are reluctant down total labor supply. to shift jobs, especially if they have entered the labor market for the first IN DECEMBER, more women were separated time-induced either by high wages or from munitions factories than took jobs. patriotic motives or both. In the first And that has happened every month since, place, A shift out of high-paying muni- shattering the steady increase in the tions industries may mean a lower rate number of women in war work since Pearl of pay. In the second place, the pa- Harbor. triotic stimulus for women to work in By itself, the decline is not too war plants is not so great as it was important: it fits into what has been shortly after Pearl Harbor. In the happening the last six months. Employ- third place, a change usually means ment in munitions industries has been making ijustments to a new plant, new falling off. However, when women are foremen, and even new processes. Final- released, some pull out of the labor ly, A cancellation or cutback of pro- market. As WAR PROGRESS noted several duction in which they happen to be en- weeks ago, a study in Syracuse showed gaged gives them the impression that that the evaporation of women was much they are no longer badly needed. IN AND OUT OF FACTORIES After steady gains since Pearl Harbor, the number of women in factories declined 5% from November to February. Employment of men dropped 2% in the same period. 15 15 Factory Employment Total IO 10 MILLIONS OF WAGE EARNERS Men MILLIONS OF WAGE EARNERS 5 5 Women o o Dec. Apr. Oct. J F M A M J J A $ o N D J F M 1941 1942 1943 1944 - PROGRESS 2 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS Men, on the other hand, are accustomed market, as a practical matter such a to shifting jobs, and usually they have policy or program would meet powerful no choice, being responsible for the opposition from unions, church groups, support of families. Thus, when women and even management. The policy of lay- are laid off, the danger of a net de- ing off a family man while keeping a cline in the available supply of workers single girl on the job hardly recommends is much greater than when men are laid itself socially. off. And it so happens that when cutbacks CUTS MARGIN OF SUPPLY do occur, more women are laid off than In the meantime, however, the retire- men. Thus, during the four months from ment of women from factories cuts down November through February, nearly five the margin of supply in the labor mar- out of every 100 women employed were ket. Ever since March, 1943, women con- separated, only two out of every 100 men. stituted the entire net increase in em- ployment inmunitions industries. With- FOUR FACTORS out the substantial rise in employment This was due to four factors: (1) of women, factory employment would have workers are being released for the most declined, and war production could never part on the basis of seniority and pro- have attained its current high level. ductivity-the last-in, first-out rule Large-scale hiring of women began governs, and women more often than not shortly after Pearl Harbor. At that have been the last in; (2) about 6% of time, there were some 2,700,000 women the releases took place in ammunition in factories, or about 23% of all wage plants, where women constitute about earners. By November, 1943, the number half of the workers; (3) women are be- had risen to 4,500,000, the proportion ginning voluntarily to leave factories to 32%. Today, the proportion is still in increasing numbers; and (4) to a high, slightly under 32%, though the lesser degree many employers still pre- number has dropped to 4,300,000. fer to keep men rather than women, other things being equal. TRADITION UPSET This trend is likely to continue. Employers who were prejudiced against Although it might seemdesirable to keep hiring women were forced to change their women on the jobs and lay off men on views because of the great demand for the theory that men will be forced by labor. Women began getting jobs that economic exigency toremain in the labor were traditionally considered men's work, such as welding, riveting, grinding and IN THIS ISSUE: milling-machine operation, drill-press WOMEN GET OUT FASTER THAN MEN work, lathe operation, etc. Many em- 1 ployers, in conjunction with the U.S. CMP ROUND 6: LESS TO DIVIDE 5 Office of Education, began training women KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK 8 to do specialized jobs. Immediately after Pearl Harbor thousands of women TWO PAIRS OF SHOES 9 went into schools to train for war work. WAR PROGRESS NOTES 10 In the past year, however, the number BREWSTER FINALE (CHART) 11 slumped sharply (chart, page 4). Since Pearl Harbor, more than 1,100,- SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS 12 000 women have taken courses for voca- CONFIDENTIAL MAY 27, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL ... 3 tional training in war plants. Nearly time, the number grew to over 2,000,000 500,000 were trained especially for work at the peak in November: since then, in aircraft plants: about 200,000 for some 100,000 have been separated. In machine-shop work; more than 150,000 December, 1941, one out of 10 workers for work in shipyards. In addition, in a war plant was a woman: today the 230,000 women were trained under college ratio is one in four. supervision for more technical jobs, The big increases in women workers such as engineering drawing, management, occurred in aircraft and shipbuilding. inspection, etc. From about 6,000 women in December, 1941, More than 90% of the women who took the number of women wage earners in air- factory jobs since Pearl Harbor went frame plants had boomed to some 282,000 into munitions plants. From 515,000 in November, 1943. Aircraft engine women in munitions industries at that plants increased their women workers WOMANPOWER-THE STORY OF MANPOWER From March through November, sharp rise in employment of female workers more than made up for the decline in number of men in munitions plants. 10 10 Munitions Employment Nonmunitions Employment 8 B Total MILLIONS OF WAGE EARNERS 6 6 Men Total 4 4 Men MILLIONS OF WAGE EARNERS 2 Women 2 Women o o D A o JFMAMJJASONDJFM D A o JFMAMJJASONDJFM 1941 1942 1943 1944 1941 1942 1943 1944 The proportion of women in aircraft, shipbuilding, and machinery rose sharply. 40 40 Airfromes and Props 30 30 % OF WOMEN 20 20 Aircroft Engines % OF WOMEN Machinery lex elect) IO IO Shipbuilding o o D A o JFMAMJJASONDJFM D A o JFMAMJJASONDJFM 1941 1942 1943 1944 1941 1942 1943 1944 WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 4 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS from about 1,000 to 80,000. In ship- for the decline in men (chart, page 3). building, the rise was from about 1,000 Here it was largely a case of replacing to 109,000. Here's how the number of men who had left for the armed forces: women in some of the key munitions in- however, the rise was small. In Decem- dustries has changed: ber, 1941, there were some 2,200,000 Dec. Nov. Feb. women out of a total of 6,400,000, or 34%. By August, 1943, the number had 1941 1943 1944 (thousands of women) increased to2,470,000 out of 6,100,000, Airframes & props.. or 41%. These industries traditionally 6 282 262 Aircraft engines 2 employed such large proportions of women 80 81 Shipbuilding 1 that the limit of expansion had been 109 104 Automobiles 28 196 177 approached. For example, the ratio of Other trans. equip. women in apparel and other finished 2 41 38 Iron, steel & prod. 109 products rose a mere two points, from 372 357 Elec. machinery 163 364 366 76% in October, 1941, to 78% in August, Mach. ex. elec. 56 1943; printing and allied industries ... 263 253 Nonferrous metals 62 97 went up from 22% to 29%. In tobacco 93 Rubber 46 76 76 manufacture, the proportion actually Small arms amm. 14 69 dropped slightly, from 68% to 67%. ... 43 Selected chemicals. 8 62 51 COMES TOO EARLY Miscellaneous 18 42 41 Total 515 2,053 1,942 From a long-term standpoint, the voluntary retirement of some women from In nonmunitions industries-textiles, the labor market can be looked upon as tobacco manufacture, apparel, printing astep toward postwar read justment. But -increased employment almost made up it comes too early. Today women con- TRAINING OF WOMEN WANES Enrollment in pre-employment courses drops back to where it was before Pearl Harbor. Women taking supplementary courses for upgrading off 43% from peak. 60 Pre-employment Training 60 Supplementary Training 40 40 THOUSANDS OF WOMEN All Other All Other Machine Shop THOUSANDS OF WOMEN 20 20 Machine Shop Aircraft Aircroft o JFMAMJ A 5 J FMAM J JASONDJFM 0 1942 1943 A SOND JFAMJJSJFM 1944 1942 1943 1944 - PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL MAY 27, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL 5 stitute the country's main manpower schedules. A better program needs to reserve. Any reduction in that reserve be developed to impress upon women able cuts down the country's capacity to meet towork that they are still badly needed any sudden upward d justment in war in war-supporting industries. CMP Round 6: Less to Divide Total allotments of carbon steel are at new low, areas. In all, the carbon steel allot- but Requirements Committee authorizes ment to farm machinery came to 310,000 additional materials for certain civilian tons. From present indications, 1944- products of high urgency. 45 output of machinery and repair parts may set a new all-time high for the IN MAKING allocations of steel, copper, second year in a row. and aluminumfor the third quarter, the The Office of Civilian Requirements Requirements Committee continued to was allotted 6,473 tons: 3,000 tons for deny requests for materials for expanded wire garment hangers, since cardboard civilian production as such. However, and wood substitutes are becoming scarce; it did recognize the demand for certain 2,128 tons for scullery sinks, commer- new civilian production in addition to cial cooking equipment and dish- and the regular programs of the nonmilitary glassware-washing machinery for in-plant claimants-on the theory that these ad- feeding: 945 tons for steel wool, which ditional programs would contribute to has been denied housewives for some time; the war effortwithcut conflicting with and 400 tons for more cordwood saw blades military production. to help farmers increase fuel supplies. Requests for such programs amounted The Office of Defense Transportation to about 530,000 tons of carbon steel received an additional 524 tons for (as well as 34,000 tons of alloy steel, trolley cars and buses to provide in- 34,000,000 pounds of copper, and 98,- creased transportation facilities for 000,000 pounds of aluminum). But short- war workers. Another 244 tons were al- ages of certain types and shapes-car- located to the Office of War Utilities bon steel plates, sheets, strip, tin for resuming manufacture of telephone plate; copper rod, bar, tubing, and instruments for civilians (200,000 a foundry products-had to be taken into quarter); butallocation was made pend- account. As a result, such carbon steel ing availability of tinsel cord. requests were cut in the Requirements Committee to 22,200 tons, or 4% of what NOT RECONVERSION was asked for. Additional requests for These additional programs do not con- alloy steel, copper, and aluminum were stitute reconversion as such. In pre- similarly reduced. paring and submitting them, the claim- The War Food Administration received ants emphasized that the programs were the largest additional allotment of of a high order of urgency and fell into this type-15,000 tons to be used to one of the following classes: boost manufacture of farm machinery. (1) Saved manpower, or saved crit- This additional programwas not expected ical materials, or provided a better to drain critical components and was to product. be put into effect only in loose labor (2) Promoted the maintenance of es- CONFIDENTIAL 6 ... CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS NEW CIVILIAN TOUCH FOR CMP For the first time, supplementary allotments of carbon steel - 0.1% of total - have been made to nonmilitory agencies; two-thirds to form machinery. Form Machinery WFA Total OCR Wire Garment Hongers Cooking Equipment (Comm. non-electric) Steel Wool OCR Breakdown Scullery Sinks Cordwood Sow Blades Dish, Glasswashing Mach. Transit Vehicles ODT Telephones OWU o 5 10 in addition to regular program, 15 THOUSANDS OF TONS WAR PROGRESS sential producers' goods and services, production, provided these require prep- as, for example, increasing output of aration far in advance. repair parts for food machinery, trans- In the sixth round of CMP, the Re- portation equipment, public utilities, quirements Committee was able to allot etc. carbon steel to these additional civil- (3) Contributed to the efficiency ian-type programs even though it had of war production, such as in-plant less to divide up than in any of the feeding equipment, housing, community previous five rounds. Third-quarter facilities, and local services in con- supply was estimated at 14,111,000 net gested war production areas. tons-3% less than the second quarter. LOOKING TO FUTURE Ordinarily, third-quarter output is down because of warm weather, but this time At alater date, when present policy is relaxed, programs of a less urgent a shortage of manpower is the major reason for the expected drop. But reg- nature may be put into effect if they (1) eliminate "nuisance" restrictions: ular program requests of claimant agen- cies, too, were lower-only 15,288,286 (2) improve the quality of existing production; (3) expand or resume output tons, also 3% under the previous quarter. of essential civilian-type goods: (4) STEPUP FOR SHELLS provide for essential construction and facilities of a second order of urgency; Since allotments are not all trans- (5) permit retooling and reconstruction lated into actual mill orders, the Re- in preparation for postwar civilian quirements Committee, as usual, over- allotted supply: 14,478,000 tons went to CONFIDENTIAL MAY 27, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL ... 7 CMP: ROUND 6 ROLLS AROUND Allotments of carbon steel to claimant agencies fall 5% behind second quarter; military quota drops 4%, but Army rises 8%. TOTAL CARBON STEEL-ROUND 6 This is what the claimants asked for (stated requests): This is what the requests were screened to: This is what has been allotted: These are the authorized allot- ments for the previous round: o 5 10 15 MILLIONS OF TONS And this is what the major claimants got: Army Operations Vice Chairman Stated Requests Screened Requests Allotment Previous Allotment Moritime Navy Stated Requests Screened Requests Allotment Previous Allotment Office of Defense Transportation Foreign Economic Administration Stated Requests Screened Requests Allotment Previous Allotment 3 2 o o 2 3 MILLIONS OF TONS MILLIONS OF TONS WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 8 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK Lotest Preceding Month 6 Months Year Week Week Ago Ago Ago Wor program-Checks paid (millions of dollars) 1,755 1,826 1,630 1,931 1,557 Wor bond soles-E, F, G (millions of dollars) 147 169 157 163 205 Money in circulation (millions of dollars) 21,847 21,725 21,334 19,559 16,795 Wholesale prices (1926=100) All commodities 103.8' 103.7' 103.8 102.8 103.8 Form products 123.3 122.4 122.9 121.2 125.8 Food 104.7 104.6 104.7 105.6 110.3 All other 98.7 98.6 98,5 97.5 96.9 Petroleum: Total U.S. stocks (thousands of borrels) 410,078 409,385 410,489 426,723 432,495 Total East Coost stocks (thousands of barrels). 57,518 57,308 56,439 67,146 44,209 East Coast receipts (thousands of borrels, daily average) 1,758 1,606 1,700 1,704 1,364 Bituminous cool production (thousands of short tons, daily average). 2,093 ' 2,025 1,958 1,910 2,050 Steel operations (% of capacity) 98.4 99.2 99.5 99.3 99.3 Freight cors unlooded for export, excluding grain (daily overoge) Atlantic Coost ports 3,456 3,234 3,115 2,859 2,433 Gulf Coast ports 461 381 316 477 388 Pocific Coost ports 1,589 1,609 1,690 1,313 1,260 Department store soles (% change from o year ago). *15 *31 -11 *22 *21 p. Preliminary "Excludes military-owned stocks claimants, 1,618,000 to reserves-a of the Office of Civilian Requirements total of 16,096,000 tons. The Army was was up chiefly because of its supple- the only military claimant whose third- mentary allotments and changes in juris- quarter allotment exceeded the second diction over selected B products. quarter: the increase-7.8-was due The table below shows (1) third-quar- largely to stepping up of the heavy ter allotments of carbonsteel to claim- ammunition and shell-container programs. ant agencies, (2) change from second- The decline in Maritime Commission's ship quarter allotments, and (3) percentage program brought a 19.3%* drop in its of total allotments received by each allotment. agency. Note that the military allot- ments dropped 4.4% from the previous MORE FOR CANADA quarter but that they constitute 41.9% Canada registered a 23.3% increase of the total allotments. And, of course, due largely to needs for its cargo ship, the allotment to the Operations Vice naval vessel, and ammunition programs. Chairman includes materials for products National Housing Agency's boost was going to the military. Also, require- large percentagewise-24.4-but actually ments for military command construction the increase was only 5,100 tons, due and facilities-that is, projects ordered largely to NHA's submitting for the first in the U.S. by the Chief of Staff or time requirements for a program for pro- area commanders-hithertowere allotted viding for emergencies such as floods, directly to military claimants as part fires, demolition, etc. The allotment of their regular allotments, but in this CONFIDENTIAL MAY 27, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL ... 9 round a reserve-100,000 tons-is set much further, consumers are bound to up for this purpose. have increasing difficulty in getting % % of needed types and sizes. Claimants Allotments Change Total The 1944 program of the Office of (1,000 net tons) Civilian Requirements contemplates pro- Military 6,743 -4.4% 41.9% duction of at least 314,000,000 pairs of ARCO 125 -3.9 .8 rationed-type shoes: however, increased Army 3,080 +7.8 19.1 cattlehide supplies will probably permit Navy 1,638 -4.3 10.2 greater output, possibly as high as Maritime 1,900 -19.3 11.8 OCR's original goal of 360,000,000 pairs. Export 1,323 -14.4 8.2 FEA (OLLA & REDUCTION IN SALES OEW) 990 -22.3 6.1 Foreseeable sales for 1944 run to Canada 333 +23.3 2.1 between 290,000,000 arid 295,000,000 pairs Nonmilitary 6,412 -2.4 39.8 -exclusive of shoes which will be re- WFA 1,041 +4.6 6.5 leased from rationing-as follows: NHA 26 +24.4 .2 1. If each holder of the 128,000,000 PAW 457 -1.7 2.8 ration books outstanding uses his two ORD 36 -6.0 .2 coupons, then sales to consumers will ODT 1,379 -4.6 8.5 run to 256,000,000 pairs. In addition, OWU 255 -16.3 1.6 there will probably be sales of between OCR 240 +10.4 1.5 10,000,000 and 15,000,000 pairs to civil- OVC 2,978 -3.5 18.5 ians on supplemental coupons and of about Reserves 1,618 +.7 10.1 10,000,000 pairs to military personnel on Total 16,096 -4.7% 100.0% special coupons. 2. Last year, purchases for ration- exempt government agencies-Foreign Eco- Two Pairs of Shoes nomic Administration, Maritime Commission, etc.-and by institutions and industrial With inventories reduced sharply from last employers amounted to 14,000,000 pairs. year, civilian quotas of rationed types Possibly the same number will be sold will be cut o third even though output is again in this group this year. scheduled to rise 6% over 1943. THIS YEAR'S output of rationed-type shoes RATION-FREE CLEARANCE for civilians will exceed 1943 production An unpredictable number of pairs will by at least 6%, yet civilians will have be released from rationing. OPA from to get along withtwo new pairs, instead time to time relaxes ration restrictions of three as last year. so as to give dealers an opportunity Here's the reason why: In 1943, shoe to clear out unusual sizes, unpopular consumers lived off inventories: 295,- styles, etc. 309,000 pairs of rationed-type shoes were Before rationing, dealers cleared turned out for civilian supply, but 348, their shelves twice a year, but under 703,000 were sold. Accordingly, whole- rationing consumers won't surrender sale and retail stocks dropped 53,394,- stamps for clearance merchandise. And 000 pairs, from 254,238,000 pairs to last June, OPA gave dealers a three- 200,844,000 pairs. If inventories drop weeks' period during which they could CONFIDENTIAL 10 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS SHOE INVENTORIES UP During February and March, new supply of rationed-type shoes exceeded demand, ofter trailing most of last year. 50 300 New Supply vs. Demand Retail and Wholesale Stocks (end of month) 40 Demond 200 30 MILLIONS OF PAIRS New Supply MILLIONS OF PAIRS 20 100 10 o o J F M A M J J A S o N D J F M J F M A M J J A 5 o N 0 J F M 1943 -1944- 1943 1944 WAR PROGRESS sell a small percentage of their inven- of rationing restrictions on shoes is tories ration-free. Early this year OPA unlikely. Though the present outlook permitted dealers to sell, ration-free, for cattle hides ismuch better than it a certain percentage of their inventories was at the close of 1943 (WP-Dec4'43, p4), of women's low-priced novelty shoes which the requirements of the United Nations were not moving on ration-stamp sales. continue to exceed supply. Any sudden Again in May, OPA allowed the ration- end of shoe rationing would pose a prob- free sale of children's low-priced shoes. lem: Consumers would buy rationed types, and dealers would be stuck with NONRATION OUTLOOK stocks of substitute types which they'd For consumers who need more shoes than have to mark down. they can get with ration stamps, OCR's program calls for production of 41,000,- War Progress Notes 000 pairs of nonrationed street types— MORE SPARE BARRELS fabric-upper shoes with plastic, compo- AS A RESULT of experience on the Italian sition, rope, duck, and other substitute battlefront, the 1944 program for spare soles-but actual output will come close cannon barrels for heavy artillery has to the 85,000,000 pairs made last year. been stepped up sharply and is now more These types are low-priced merchandise: than 10 times the 1943 output. 90% of them are sold below $4.00, the Largest increases are in spares for majority below $3.00. the 155mm. gun and the 155mm. howitzer. In the meantime, any early lifting Here's how the schedule, as revised, CONFIDENTIAL MAY 27, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL ... II compares with last year's production: Present facilities are being expanded 1943 1944 and new ones are being added to produce the tubes and breech mechanism. New fa- Prod. Sched. (units) cilities include the Chain Belt Company, 4.5-inch gun 89 Rock Island Arsenal, Watertown Arsenal, 477 155mm. howitzer.... and the Dixin Gun Plant. But even with 72 1,496 155mm. gun 190 this, procurement will not be easy be- 1,271 8-inch howitzer... 3 232 cause of prior allocation of materials, 8-inch gun 0 92 machine tools, and manpower. 240mm. howitzer 1 86 THE STORY OF BREWSTER Total 355 3,654 LAST FALL Brewster Aeronautical Corpora- The expansion involves more than tion received a lot of publicity, all of procuring additional tubes: it includes it bad: headlines spread the story of its the manufacture of more breech assemblies poor production record. Now the Navy and some smaller parts. (The breech has written finis to the story, terminat- assembly of an old tube is sometimes ing its contract for the F3A Corsair. transferred on guns under 90mm., but a Brewster will wind up production next new assembly must be built for each new month instead of the end of the year. tube in larger artillery. ) Furthermore, But Brewster is ending with a bang, more towing and auxiliary vehicles are not a whimper. Its record has improved required. steadily since Henry Kaiser was made BREWSTER FINALE Strike-ridden plants wind up program in rush. Corsair schedule beaten four times in row. Production of the Bermuda was consistently laggard. 150 150 Corsair Bermudo First-of-Month Schedule Koiser Tokes Over 100 100 NUMBER OF PLANES Koiser Takes "Over NUMBER OF PLANES 50 50 First-of-Month Actual Production Schedule Actual Production o o J F M A M J J A S o N D J F M A J F M A M J J A S o N D J F M A 1943 1944 1943 1944 WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 12 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS Cost of Living-Production-Income Payments-Expenditures-Transportation Lotest Preceding 2 Months 6 Months Some Year Some Month Month Ago Month Ago Ago Month 1939 1937 COST OF LIVING-ALL ITEMS (935-39=100) 124.5 Food 123.8 123.8 124.4 124.1 99.0 102.1 Other than food 134.6 134.1 134.5 138.2 140.6 94.2 105.1 119.3 118.5 118.0 117.0 114.9 101.5 100.6 PRODUCTION INDEX-INDUSTRIAL 1935-39=100 239' Total Monufoctures 239 241 249 236 98 121 Durable 257P 258 260° 269 255 100 124 Nondurable 362' 366 " 368° 375 356 96 171' 137 Minerals 171 173 183* 173 102 138° 113 133 136° 140 127 ss 106 INCOME PAYMENTS-TOTAL (million dollars) 12,804 Solaries and wages 12,097 12,426 12,452 11,404 8,982' 5,809 5,996 9,028 Comm, distr, and serv. industries 8,889 8,614 8,042 3,716 6,863* 6,947 * 3,837 Government 6,812 6,743 6,320 2,998 2,119 3,194 Militory 2,081 2,077 1,871 1,719 530 high 1,118' Nonmilitory 1,119 1,115 949 810 35 31 Other 1,001 962 962 922 909 495 453 - Other income payments - 3 168 3,822' 3,069 159 Income payments, annual rate (adjusted for 3.537 3,838 3,362 2,093 2,159 seosonal, billion dollars) 154.1° 155.1' 152.1" 144.5 138.4 69.3 73.0 CONSUMER EXPENDITURES (million dollars) 7,272' Goods 7.401" 9,110 7.388 4,742' 6,796 4,519 4,862 4,609 Services 6,624 R 4,954 4,404 2,530* 2,539 2,652 2,806 2,486 2,434 2,392 1,867 1,803 TRANSPORTATION-COMMODITY AND PASSENGER (1935-39=100)+ 222" 220 Commodity 213 226ᵃ 204 208 98 207 115 Passenger 201 213" 194 267' 260 " 98 118 254 269" 234 *Cost r Revised. of Living, Production Index, April; Income Payments, Transportation, March; Consumer Expenditures, February. 107 98 Unadjusted. P Preliminary. president last October. Employment has Of the $10,700,000 that Brewster has been cut from 19,000 to less than 13,000 spent on facilities and equipment, only workers: schedules have been beaten over $136,000 is government financed. Its the last four months (chart page 11). first plane was the F2A Buffalo, a Navy Likewise Brewster's latest contract fighter of 1940 vintage. In mid-1942 prices for Corsair airframes compare it switched to the SB2A Bermuda dive- favorably with those of other manu- bomber, built for the British-and then facturers-$70,583 98 against $68,900 its serious troubles began. The Bermuda for Chance-Vought, $72,450 for Goodyear. never proved a successful plane. All told, 770 were produced: deliveries were LAST IN, FIRST OUT erratic (chart, page 11), partly because Main reason why its contract was of frequent design changes. The program terminated is that the Corsair program was concluded in February. itself has been cut back: attrition- Subcontracts are now being sought for losses in combat-has not been so great Brewster's Long Island City plant. The AS at first figured. And Brewster was Navy may take over its other plant at the last company to get started on Cor- Johnsville as a modification center. sairs. It began turning them out last Efforts are also being made to find jobs June and didn't approach volume pro- for all Brewster workers who won't be duction until the end of 1943. needed. CONFIDENTIAL War Progress is loaned to you for official use. It contains CONFIDENTIAL information affecting the security of the United States Revelation of its contents in any manner to unauthorized persons is prohibited by the Espionage Act. OFFICIAL RULES for its CUSTODY (1) Not to permit information from any copy in their custody to become available to anyone except a Government employee under their immediate supervision who will be bound by the restrictions hereby agreed to and who requires access to WAR PROGRESS in connection with his official duties. (2) To keep all copies in a securely locked container when not actually in use. (3) Not to incorporate information from WAR PROGRESS in any record unless the use of such record is restricted as if the record were itself a copy of WAR PROCRESS. (4) To give prior written notice of any change of address. (5) On written request, or before separation from the Govern- ment position which entitles them to receive WAR PRO- GRESS, to return all copies charged to their account. WAR PROGRESS Confidential- Disclosure Punishable Under Espionage Aa 20.1166% - - BAC / MAR 14-1973 MAR and or in - Economic Data Special Articles The President 1 6.7. WAR PROGRESS War Production Board iselosure Punishable Under Espionage Act The Long and Short of Manpower 8 R x4735 MAR 14 1973 a X4905 Number 194 June 3, 1944 WAR PROGRESS Prepared in the War Production Board Donald M. Nelson, Chairman War Progress is a confidential report designed to provide a coordinated and continuing picture of the overall war program for the various war agencies. To this end, it presents, analyzes, and interprets basic statistical and economic information, and from time to time examines the pros and cons of controversial questions. Although War Progress is an official publication of the War Production Board, statements in it are not to be construed as expressing official attitudes of the Board as a whole, or even of individual members. Conclusions, whenever reached, should be considered editorial conclusions. War Progress is prepared in the Bureau of Planning and Statistics (Stacy May, Director) by the Munitions Branch (Morris A. Copeland, Chief). Editorial Staff Editor, Joseph A. Livingston; Associates: Thomas A. Falco, Roy T. Frye (drafting), Winona Hibbard Morris Katz, Chester L. Kieffer, John C. Loeser, Herbert J. Muller, J.S. Werking (production). Contributors Joseph A. Zettler ( munitions ); William F. Butler aircraft ), J. Ronald Meiklejohn (communications and electronics), Herbert Stein (economics). This report contains CONFIDENTIAL information affecting the defense of the United States: See inside back cover for rules of custody. CONFIDENTIAL NUMBER 194 WAR PROGRESS JUNE 3, 1944 Manpower-Matter of Pulls and Pushes Though labor is no longer (if it ever was) an they do not need to replace all workers overall production bottleneck, workers who quit. Indeed, some are laying off are badly needed in some industries. workers and still meet schedules. At Sense of wor urgency diminished. the same time, released workers have been readily absorbed into other seg- ON THE BASIS of recent trends, it is ments of the economy-miscellaneous all too easy to assume that the manpower manüfacturing, the railroads, public problem is solving itself. Here are utilities, retailing, laundries, and the salient facts: other service industries. In short, 1. In contrast to the hectic days hidden, unplanned reconversion has taken following Pearl Harbor, not all muni- place. tions industries are clamoring for work- ers. On the contrary, layoffs dominate. NO FOREGONE CONCLUSION For five successive months employment However, when you try to carry the in war plants has declined-from 10,- story farther, you run into complica- 365,000 workers in November to 9,830,000 tions. You cannot be sure that recent in April. And May will unquestionably trends will persist. Consider what has add a sixth month to that succession. taken place in productivity per worker 2. Despite this 535,000 decrease in since December, 1942: munitions workers, output of planes, tanks, guns, ships, and other munitions Monthly Munitions has managed to keep within 1% and 2% Output per Worker of schedule each month. And the drop December, 1942 $419 since November's peak production of $5,- April, 1943 460 640,000,000 has been nominal. In March, August, 1943 495 production came to $5,600,000,000; in December, 1943 547 April it receded to $5,450,000,000; but April, 1944 555 in May, according to preliminary indi- cations, production was up again. The table speaks for itself. From 3. Unemployment is at an all-time December, 1942, through December, 1943, low, dropping from 900,000 in November productivity increased rather steadily. to about 800,000 in April. Obviously Munitions output was expanding rapidly laid-off workers have been absorbed by for most of the period, and production the armed forces, have found jobs in per worker reflected the improvement in nonwar industries, or have retired from operating techniques in munitions in- the labor market. dustries: it rose at the rate of about Out of those facts, it is possible $10 per worker per month. to fashion a story that runs something But after December, 1943, the rate like this: Munitions production is run- of increase changed abruptly-it was ning along on a fairly even keel; plants only $2.00 per month. And even this are becoming more efficient, therefore increase may be a partial overstatement CONFIDENTIAL 2 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS of the trend. It was due in large part labor force, so dehoarding dividends to layoffs numerous munitions indus- are apt to be fewer and smaller. In tries. Plants began to "dehoard" work- the second place, cutbacks in munitions ers-toget rid of the chronic absentees, programs tend to make workers self- the stallers, and the inefficient (WP- protective. They want to keep their Marl1'44, pl). The reason was that the jobs. They stretch out work. And if scope of the overall war program had this trend persists, then the number of been delineated. For the most part, workers released between now and the individual manufacturers knew where they end of the year (leaving out, for the stood on war contracts; they could lay moment, the impact of the invasion) will their future production plans with some be comparatively modest. Most of these assurance that sudden large contracts will be absorbed by the armed forces; would not be sprung on them. and only about 200,000 will be released And as they squeezed the water out for nonwar work. These will be readily of their working force, idle hands were absorbed in the economy. released. Thus, in effect, there were just as many workers "working," but MORE IFS AND BUTS there were fewer workers on the pay However, if the higher productivity rolls and hence in the productivity trend is projected, then about 800,000 statistics. Clearly, therefore, gains workers will become available for civil- in productivity at the end of 1943 are ian production (after allowing for Army- suspect and cannot be taken at face Navy net inductions). And these will value. They are to be looked upon-at not be too readily absorbed. Some will least in part-as a labor dividend from disappear from the labor market-espe- past hoardings, strictly a nonrecurrent cially women (WP-May27'44,pl; Apr8'44, item in the manpower profit-and-loss p4). Some will find jobs quickly in account. both war and nonwar industries. But some temporary unemployment will result. DECREASING DIVIDENDS Inevitably, businessmen, labor unions, A good case can be made out for this and chambers of commerce will demand lower productivity expectation. In the that civilian-goods production be resumed. first place, manufacturers are getting Since this last is the graver of the down closer to the hard core of their two prospects, it's the one the War Pro- duction Board, the War Manpower Commis- sion, and the armed forces must be pre- IN THIS ISSUE: pared for. And the formation of an ad- visory staff to the Production Executive MANPOWER-MATTER OF PULLS AND PUSHES 1 HIGH COST OF LIVING, HIGHER WAGES (CHART) Committee, with responsibilities to 5 make recommendations for both long- and STRIKES COUNTER THE MUNITIONS CURVE (CHART). 6 short-term dovetailing of civilian out- 300,000 WORKERS, STRATEGICALLY PLACED 7 put with cutbacks in munitions, is a KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK 10 step in the right direction (page 7). WANTED: FEWER SURPRISES 11 UNEMPLOYMENT REACHES RECORD LOW (CHART) 12 OF MICE AND MEN THAT NO-STRIKE PLEDGE 13 One point cannot be gainsaid, how- SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS 15 ever. The best-laid plans must wait on the invasion: CONFIDENTIAL JUNE 3. 1944 CONFIDENTIAL ... 3 PRODUCTIVITY POINTER With munitions output no longer sharply expanding, rate of rise in production per worker slackens off. 8 20 200 200 6 15 ISO 150 MUNITIONS PRODUCTION - BILLIONS OF DOLLARS Munitions Production 4 IO Employment MUNITIONS EMPLOYMENT-MILLIONS OF WORKERS INDEX DECEMBER, 1942 100 100 ЮО Munitions Production per Worker INDEX DECEMBER, 1942 100 2 5 50 50 o o o o 0 J F M A M J J A $ o N D J F M A M J D J F M A M J J A 5 o N D J F M A M J 1942 1943 1944 1942 1943 1944 WAR PROGRESS 1. If the invasion is instantly suc- will be thrust into reverse. The Army cessful, then military requirements will may boost requirements for tanks, guns, undergo fairly sharp reductions. And ammunitiona along the line. Bombing the new PEC staff will have to work day raids of 2,000 and 3,000 planes daily- and night to solve the numerous problems which now seem large in comparison with that will arise. Which plants should what has gone before-may seem ineffec- be cut back first? Which industries tual, or at least "not enough." And shallwestart up first? WPB will have production of munitions, instead of another taste of the rush-rush opera- backing and filling, as it has for the tions of 1942 and early 1943. last five months, will be pushed up 2. If the invasion is not instantly sharply, bringing new demands for man- successful, yet goes along fairly smooth- power. ly, the current period of watchful wait- ing will be prolonged, though certain STILL SOME BOTTLENECKS programs maybe stepped up in the light In the meantime, pending the inva- of combat experience in the invasion. sion and its aftermath, the immediate In that case, plans will have to be ready manpower problem is to provide workers to absorb possibly 800,000 workers if inafew key industries, which now bot- high rates of productivity prevail, or tleneck such important programs as land- only about 200,000 or 300,000 if the ing craft, heavy trucks, radar, etc. trend of the last few months prevails. (page 11). 3. But if the invading force meets The manpower problem has shifted. reverses, then all reconversion plans After Pearl Harbor, the job was to get CONFIDENTIAL 4 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS workers into war plants; now it's to in most government arsenals, in some keep them there.' The turnover rate in shipyards, in some airplane centers. munitions industries continues high. Workers are afraid that when the big Quits run at the rate of five per 100 cuts come they'll be out of work with workers, as against only one per 100 small chance of getting another job before the war. Now that the war has in the city where they are now employed. been going well on all fronts, workers So they seek opportunities in other feel the situation is in hand; moreover, localities. Thus it is noteworthy that cutbacks insmall ammunition and other workers are leaving Richmond, Calif., a programs have strengthened this feeling. shipbuilding center, at the rate of The laid-off munitions worker isn't apt 10,000 a month. And in Detroit, which to see the picture as a whole. He doesn't today is pretty much a tank-and-airplane know that some programs are going up city, workers are departing almost as while others are going down, and that fast as they come in. Last August, for his release from one job doesn't nec- every worker who left Detroit, four essarily signify that there are more newcomers arrived, attracted by high than enough munitions workers to go wages. Today, however, three leave for around. To meet this, prompt action by every four who arrive. It may not be the WPB, WMC, and the armed services is mere coincidence that the railroads. necessary to direct released war workers which lost workers steadily throughout into other war jobs (page 7). 1943, began adding to the work force beginning in December. One inducement NO PLACE LIKE HOME the railroads hold out to workers is Furthermore, war jobs have disad- permanent oyment and seniority priv- vantages. Munitions centers tend to be ileges. And of course, during recon- overcrowded; they lack adequate housing, version the railroads will still be and school and community facilities. railroading; they won't have to stop After a certain length of time, women for retooling. become dissatisfied, feel that the chil- dren deserve a better way of life, and INVASIAN JITTERS the husbands, despite high pay, are under The recent outbreak of strikes may pressure to return to the place they also be ascribed to the current watchful- came from. Several agencies-Committee waiting phase of the war. Here also the for Congested Production Areas, WMC, accumulated fatigue and strain of long Federal Works Agency, etc.-have been hours has made workers jumpy (page 13). trying to improve living conditions in They know that after Germany falls such areas as Los Angeles, Calif., Nor- labor will not be in the seller's market folk, Va., Orange, Tex., Brunswick, Ga., it now is. Therefore, it is inevitable (WP-Oct2'43,p4), Detroit, etc. But it for some labor leaders or groups of is slow work. Many boom towns will just workers to worry about how they will begin to livable when the war's over. fare after Germany falls. It is part of the times. It is inevitable that many OUTWARD BOUND persons-and this goes for management The tendency to quit, while job-get- as well as labor-should start winning ting is still good is particularly high the peace even before the war has been inmunitions industries which have little won. or no postwar future. This prevails It all gces back to the diminished CONFIDENTIAL 1 JUNE 3, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL 5 HIGH COST OF LIVING, HIGHER WAGES Since January, 1941, weekly wages in nearly all industries are ahead of the rise in living costs; retail trade an exception. Biggest gain: Bituminous coal mining. Bituminous Coal Mining III) Basic Lumber Products Rubber Products Shipbuilding Nonferrous Metal Products Textile Mill Products Airframes & Parts Blost Furnaces, Steel Works, & Rolling Mills Leather & Products Chemicals & Allied Products Tobacco Manufacture Food & Kindred Products Cleaning 8 Dyeing Crude Petroleum Production Poper & Allied Products Electrical Machinery Aircraft Engines Metol Mining Laundries Cost of Living Rise Mochine Tools Year- Round Hotels Street Roilways & Buses Wholesale Trade Electric Light & Power Retail Trade 60 40 20 o o 25 50 75 WEEKLY WAGES- MARCH, 1944 % GAIN- MARCH, 1944, OVER JANUARY, 1941 WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 6 ... CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS sense of urgency, and it all adds up to fraction, though sufficiently large to a troublesome manpower problem-full of keep war executives awake nights, is not mixed stresses and strains. Some in- large enough to make its mark on the dustries are begging for workers; others great mass of workers and give them the are laying off workers. Some towns are sense of urgency a quick solution demands. overcrowded and can't induce workers to And this has longer-term implications. come; other towns are claiming they have If the sense of urgency is not strong pools of unemployed. Some programs are now, while a two-front war is on, how being easily met because manpower and much further diminished will it be when capacity are ample; other programs are only Japan is in the fight? Workers' short of both workers and capacity. worries about their postwar futures will increase as the prospect of peace, hence OVER THE HUMP the loss of war jobs, comes nearer. Con- But one point stands out: Unless war sequently it is all-important that plans programs go up suddenly and sharply as for dovetailing cutbacks with civilian the result of the invasion, the nation resumption are undertaken promptly, so is over its manpower hump. To be sure, as to minimize unemployment. At the same certain industries require labor. But, time a broad program for unemployment in all, about 300,000 workers, properly compensation during the transition period placed, would meet the requirements. is necessary. Only such general assur- And 300,000 workers, measured against a ance, to workers and managers alike, will civilian labor force of 52,000,000, is curb current and future restlessness-to less than one-sixth of 1%. Such a small the detriment of necessary war production. STRIKES COUNTER THE MUNITIONS CURVE Last year, despite a tripling in days lost by strikes, munitions output rose 20%. So far this year, days lost through strikes drop sharply; production flattens out. 6 6000 Munitions Production MUNITIONS PRODUCTION- BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4 4000 2 2000 Mon-Doys Lost THOUSANDS OF MAN-DAYS LOST THROUGH STRIKES o o J F M A M J 1942 J A 5 o N D J F M A M J J A in o N D J F M A M J 1943 1944 WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL JUNE 3, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL 7 Wanted: Fewer Surprises Army and Novy get set to give WPB and WMC ordination in reporting production ad- notice of impending cutbacks. Will permit justments. Each week, the Army Service more efficient use of labor force, and is Forces makes available to the War Pro- necessary step toward reconversion. duction Board and WMCalist of proposed cutbacks in the Army Supply Program, ON A FRIDAY last December, the Army in- indicating-wherever possible-the fa- formed a maker of gun mounts in Balti- cilities involved and the estimated more that its contract would be can- number of employees to be affected. celed in two months. The following Mon- day, representatives of the management, IMPROVED COORDINATION labor, and the War Manpower Commission For instance, early this year, the sat down to plan an orderly release of Army signified in advance to WPB and the 750 workers involved. When plant WMC that the light armored car (M-8) notices went up on Wednesday, WMC's U.S. and the command car (M-20) would be cut Employment Service was on the spot ready back in Chicago and St. Paul, and that to refer workers to local high-urgency a total of 1,500 workers would be re- jobs, such as aircraft, ship repair, leased. WPB and WMC are also put on and electronics. notice when expansions occur. (Of late, Since officials had advance notice, increases have been more numerous than layoffs were timed to the plant's six- cutbacks.) A good example of this took week production cycle: workers in the place in March and May, when notices fabrication department went first, then of production boosts in the heavy gun the welders, next the machinists, and (155mm., 240mm., 9-inch) and heavy-gun finally the assemblers. All in all, ammunition programs were given. that particular production adjustment The Navy is doing substantially the was a breeze. But others haven't been same thing, and the Maritime Commission so easy. will soon follow suit. The result is that at WPB and and WMC are forewarned of both NO ADVANCE WARNING increases and decreases in programs; Sometimes adequate advance notice also, they candetermine not only where isn't given to all agencies concerned. workers are to be released but also When a New England plant was cut out of where they will be needed. the small-arms ammunition program late last year, manpower ficials found out FLASH TO THE FIELD about it from the newspapers. A few As soon as a cutback or expansion in months ago, the Signal Corps' district production is definitely decided on, office suddenly canceled contracts for WPB flashes the news to its Production radio tubes in a Salt Lake City plant. Urgency Committee in the field and WMC When the War Manpower Commission tried does the same for its complementary Man- to corroborate the story at Army Serv- power Priorities Committee. (If there ice Forces headquarters, Washington aren't a PUC and an MPC in the area, the hadn't yet heard about it. agencies inform their local offices.) Recently, steps have been taken to Sometimes, officials in the field may eliminate such examples of faulty co- already know of the change. Suppose CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS 8 CONFIDENTIAL it's a cut in tanks. The Chief of the home-town mill were to start up again, Ordnance Department nWashington noti- they wanted to go back. Relatively few fies the Tank Automotive Center in De- Pittsburgh employers were willing to troit: in turn, TAC tells the manufac- hire on that basis. turer, at the same time informing the Time and again, however, released proper WPB and WMC regional offices. war workers can be used for top-priority As soon as the news is out, local production right in the same community. representatives of the Army, Navy, WPB, A good example of this took place in and WMC plan the adjustment in the light Evansville, Ind., when two ordnance works of local conditions: If it's a cutback, began to reduce output last fall. At can new war production be placed in the about the same time, schedules of two plant? If not, where will the released large Evansville plants-one of them workers be sent? If subcontractors are working on landing craft, the other on involved, who are they-and where? If airplanes-were expanding sharply. The it's an expansion, where will the ad- USES had a field day. In four months, ditional manpower be obtained? And so it switched more than half of 9,000 re- forth. leased workers from small-arms ammuni- tion to LSTs and Thunderbolts. VANISHING WORKERS One of the toughest problems is how But while government officials may to keep war workers from evaporating, propose, workers usually dispose of from leaving the munitions industries themselves. once a plant curtails or shuts down Consider the case of a Massachusetts (WP-Apr8'44,p4). The following experi- ordnance plant whose contracts were ence at a powder-bag loading plant in canceled last November. It was the only Virginia is not unique: almost half of war plant intown, and about 90% of the the 2,200 workers laid off over a nine- 3,500 workers were local residents or months' period just "faded out of sight." commuters. Offers from employers work- ing on high-urgency munitions such as GONE FOR GOOD landing craft, electronics, and heavy Under such circumstances, if a plant gúns poured into the local office of the gets additional contracts and wants to USES. Some firms even had physicians hire, recruitment becomes doubly diffi- on the spot to determine the physical cult. Late in 1943, a steel mill in fitness of prospective workers. But Ohio shut down half its furnaces and most of the jobs were outside the area laid off 700; USES placed half of them, and only 800 persons accepted referrals. but the remainder "disappeared." Then, The local Chamber of Commerce didn't when additional contracts were received help USES; it promised workers that early this year, the company hunted "jobs would open up soon." high and low for 300 new workers. Inasmall Pennsylvania town, a tin- In such instances, the presumption plate mill closed down and some 200 is that they took a vacation, went into workers-virtually all local residents nonwar jobs, or, in the case of women -were released. Here again job offers with families, returned to full-time poured in. However, though most of the duty in the kitchen. An estimated 1,000 workers were willing to go to nearby women swapped munitions making for home Pittsburgh, they insisted on limited making in the Lowell Ordnance closing: certificates of availability; if the another 1,000 did the same thing at CONFIDENTIAL JUNE 3, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL ... 9 ONE YEAR OF STABLE LIVING COSTS In April, the cost-of-living index moved up slightly to the level of April, 1943. Food prices are below those of last year; clothing up. 160 I60 Cost-of-Living Index Food 140 140 INDEX JANUARY 100 1941=100 Clothing 120 120 All Items INDEX JANUARY 1941=100 100 100 80 80 J F M A M J J A $ o N D J F M A M J J A 5 o N D J F M A M J J A S o N D J F M A 1941 1942 1943 1944 WAR PROGRESS Evansville; likewise with some 2,000 -is to find ways and means of taking more when cutbacks hit a group of ord- the work to the worker before taking nance plants around St. Louis; and ditto the worker to the work. Experience with 1,200 others at Twin Cities Ordnance. shows that it is much better for the Of all released workers, it is es- employee to remain where he or she is pecially difficult to persuade house- accustomed to the management, has a home wives to re-enter the labor market once established, a regular transportation they've left. During the middle of last routine, etc. summer, 200 women in an Alabama leading A particularly neat example concerns works were laid off. When the plant a former maker of fishing tackle in received a large new order in the fall, Akron, a critical manpower area. When only a handful of these women could be one of its war contracts ran out, the talked into returning. The others were company was given permission to keep housewives again! 120 employees together by making fish- ing reels out of finished-parts inven- TAKING WORK TO WORKERS tory-these to be sold in Army post ex- In cooperation with the services, changes. Here, the idea was to avoid WPB and WMC try to keep a plant's labor breaking up a highly efficient, well- organization intact wherever possible. knit labor force. Not long after, an In fact, one of the big jobs in the field Akron tire manufacturer sent out a rush -whether it concerns a Production Ur- call for workers to produce self-sealing gency Committee, Manpower Priorities gas tanks. The local WMC representative Committee, or a WPB or WMC local office got him off to a good start by seeing CONFIDENTIAL 10 ... CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS that a subcontract was placed with the that the A-30 light bomber was going fishing-tackle firm. out of the plane program. The story was The Army and Navy recognize the ad- that 8,000 workers were going to get vantages of holding the work force to- notice. But there were no layoffs; gether and try to schedule accordingly. Superfortress subcontracts filled in. At Consolidated Vultee, Downey, trainer- With each week that goes by, the plane output is being tapered, rather methods for reporting and coping with than cut abruptly, as Lightning subcon- production changes, both up and down, tracts are built up. At Douglas, El are improving. The number of Production Segundo, the SBD Dauntless is gradually Urgency Committees is expanding: at the giving way to the BTD dive-bomber. same time, these committees and the local offices of WPB and WMC are being UNCERTAINTY BREEDS RUMOR encouraged to fit overall decisions on An allied problem is how to buck the production and manpower to local condi- rumor mill. When a Midwestern elec- tions. All of this is in preparation tronics manufacturer reduced the work- for the bigger and broader ad justment ing day from ten hours to eight, the problems ahead. grapevine had it that pink-slip time Currently, program changes are small was near. Quits rose, as some workers compared to what they will be after, decided to "get out while the getting say, the defeat of Germany. The machin- was good.' Actually, none had to be ery used today will have to work over- laid off. Workers also quit the Martin time then. Against that day, a Produc- plant in Baltimore when they realized tion Executive Committee Staff-consist- KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK Lotest Preceding Month 6 Months Year Week Week Ago Ago Ago Wor program - Checks paid (millions of dollars) 1,664 1,755 1,710 1,392 1,932 Wor bond soles-E,F,G (millions of dollars) 163 147 245 189 277 Money in circulation (millions of dollars) 21,911 21,847 21,396 19,726 16,902 Wholesole prices (1926=100) All commodities 103.9 103.8 P 103.7 P 102.6 104.0 Form products 123.7 P 123.3 P 123.1 121.2 126.7 Food 104.9 104.7 104.7 105.8 All Other 110.7 98.7 P 96.7 P 98.5 D 97.5 96.9 Petroleum: Total U.S. stocks (thousands of borrels) 410,92€ 410,078 411,718 408,791 434,012 Total East Coost stocks* (thousands of borrels) 57,832 57,518 56,568 67,525 East Coost receipts (thousands of borrels, daily overage) 44,476 1,777 1,758 1,794 1,704 1,314 Bituminous cool production (thousands of short tons, daily average) 2,050 2,093 2,042 2,117 1,936 Steel operations (% of copacity) 97.5 98.4 100.0 99.5 98.4 Freight cors unloaded for export, excluding grain (doily overage) Atlontic Coost ports 3,436 3,456 3,150 Gulf Coost ports 2,579 2,396 425 461 Pocific Coost ports 357 366 354 1,648 1,589 1,686 1,216 1,274 Department store soles (% change from o year ago) +11 +15 +11 +13 +43 p. Preliminary Excludes military owned stocks, CONFIDENTIAL JUNE 3. 1944 CONFIDENTIAL Il ing of Army, Navy, Maritime Commission, In that way, increases in civilian WPB, and WMC representatives-has been programs can be synchronized with cuts set up in Washington to coordinate all in war output-and released war workers data on program changes with proposals can be channeled into peacetime jobs for expanding or resuming civilian pro- with a minimum of transitional unem- duction. ployment. 300,000 Workers, Strategically Placed Would go for toward lifting nation over man- Selective Service to defer key men in power hump. Shortages in few industries- critical plants until they could be logging, lumber, radar, cool, forges and replaced. foundries-slow key programs. This, however, was not enough. Semi- skilled and common labor were constantly FORGE SHOPS and foundries have been quitting in favor of better-paying, called-and aptly-"the foxholes of pleasanter war jobs. So the War Labor industry." Board granted some plants permission to Out of them come malleable iron cast- adjust wages "to remove inequities." ings for trucks, landing craft, farm In addition, mechanization programs machinery: gray iron for cylinder heads (conveyer systems, handling methods, and blocks, freight car wheels: steel etc.) were introduced incertain plants castings for railway cars, locomotives; to cut down on the heavy work and la- drop forgings for landing-craft, plane, borious handling: and ventilating and tank, and heavy-truck engines. And sanitary conditions were improved. At they're the Number One manpower prob- the same time, recruitment drives were lem today. For want of 20,000 workers instituted-movies, posters, speeches— -constituting 2% of all workers in to persuade workers to take jobs in the the munitions industries-schedules of industry. some critical items are in danger of But if getting new workers was dif- not being met. ficult, holding them was even more dif- ficult. Recent experience shows that FOUNDRIES LOSE OUT only about one out of every four new This is no sudden problem. Back in workers stays on the job three months January, 1943, the high-paying, glamor- or more. Nevertheless, between Novem- ized war industries such as aircraft ber and March, employment in 225 criti- and shipbuilding were expanding sharply. cal plants rose about 2%: at the same And the sweaty, muscle-demanding forge- time, production increased approximately and-foundry industry-with its compara- 15%. But April broke the uptrend; ton- tively low starting wage-came out second nage in these plants was down an esti- best in the race for manpower. Then, mated 10%. the heavy-truck and landing-craft pro- grams came through, with their big de- SEASONAL LOSSES mands for malleable castings and gray The drop is attributed to (1) the iron. Manpower difficulties multiplied. customary return of seasonal labor to By September, 1943, the War Production agriculture and (2) the inevitable mi- Board and War Manpower Commission asked gration to cooler work before the hot CONFIDENTIAL 12 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS UNEMPLOYMENT REACHES RECORD LOW Despite cutbacks in munitions plants, joblessness declined 11% in April. Civilian labor force is dropping slightly (losing out to armed forces). 60 60 Unemployment Agricultural Employment 40 40 MILLIONS OF PERSONS Other Nonagricultural Employment MILLIONS OF PERSONS 20 20 Munitions Employment o o 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 WAR PROGRESS weather. On top of that, the draft of three months; that's the period between younger men was speeded up. Of 5,600 manufacture of forgings, castings, gray forge and foundry workers under 26 in iron, etc. and their use in end products critical plants, only 730 have been en- such as tanks, trucks, landing craft, dorsed for deferment. And even that 730 and construction machinery. July will is an overstatement-the final figure tell the story. may be less than half that number. Today's situation in the forge-and- foundry industry is symptomatic rather SKILLED WORKERS DRAFTED than unique. Other industries hard put Meanwhile, the current experience of to meet critical programs for want of a Detroit forge shop is typical of what's labor include coal mining, lumber, radar, happening: Six skilled workers under and tire cord. And this is in spite of 26 (three diesinkers, one drop-hammer the series of layoffs in munitions in- operator, one heater, and one die setter) dustries. Inall, about 300,000 workers, have beencalled for induction. Minimum if strategically placed, would go far time to train replacements ranges from toward eliminating the mannower pinch six months to three years. The plant in rising programs. has been turning out 200 tons per month Requirements of individual industries of highly specialized forgings for Army are comparatively small, ranging from Ducks, trucks, and Water Buffaloes. 2,000 workers for dry-cell batteries to The estimated 10% drop in April didn't 65,000 for logging. And the figure of cut down on munitions production. Aver- 20,000 for "forge and foundry" covers age lead time in the industry is about several industries not on the list: CONFIDENTIAL JUNE 3, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL 13 heavy-heavy trucks, landing craft, con- creases, their rates are still behind struction equipment for the Corps of those of "new" war industries such as Engineers, farmmachinery. Here's where aircraft and shipbuilding. Indeed, jobs the workers are needed-and how many: which in peacetime were looked on as Est. of New high-paying are now considered low- Critical Industry Workers Needed despite the fact that wages for some of Antifriction bearings 4,000 them have even gone above the "Little Coal mining Steel" formula. 37,000 Cotton broad-woven goods 25,000 INFLATION THE BUGBEAR Dry-cell batteries 2,000 Forge & foundry Thus, there is pressure to increase 20,000 Logging wages inbasic industries so as to stim- 65,000 Lumber manufacturing 63,000 ulate production: but this, in- turn, Radio & radar 50,000 would raise costs of manufacturing muni- Rubber heels & soles tions and other goods all along the line. 3,000 It would result in the well-known in- Rubber tires & tubes 14,500 Tire cord 4,500 flationary spiral: wages pushing up Total manufacturing costs; manufacturing costs 288,000 pushing up prices; higher prices (and The big demand is for unskilled work- the cost of living) creating new pres- ers. But not all of these jobs can be sures to boost wages. described as "dirty and tough." In some instances, it's a clear case of wage differentials. A chap who remembers That No-Strike Pledge starting in a shipyard at 80 cents an hour might consider a plane plant pay- On the record, labor has heeded it. Recent out- ing about the same, but he's apt to breaks are due to overfatigue, jumpiness, steer clear of a bearing plant paying worry over losing jobs. Time lost is for be- 65 cents to beginners. A woman who made low that of prewar years. 60 cents an hour in an ordnance plant - STRIKES make bigger headlines than sta- "right off"-thinks twice before accept- tistics on war production; yet war pro- ing a job at 50 cents in a cotton-goods duction, despite sporadic work stoppages factory. due to strikes, has gone up fairly con- sistently monthafter month since Pearl NO SIMPLE SOLUTION Harbor. And today, munitions output is As far as wages are concerned, it virtually at an all-time high (chart, might seemasimple matter to solve the page 3). difficulty by raising them. But under the national stabilization policy, that's LITTLE TIME LOST easier said than done. It is the War Compared with industrial accidents Labor Board's job to stabilize wages or absenteeism, strikes have cost a as part of the hold-the-line price pol- negligible loss of time. Though there icy. So even though industries which were 1,500 strikes in the first four existed in substantially their present months of this year, costing 2,000,000 formbefore the war-coal, lumber, tires, man-days, this came to less than 0.1% cotton goods, metal mining, transporta- of total working time. You can charge tion-may have been granted wage in- up to absenteeism more than 50 times CONFIDENTIAL 14 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS STRIKES AND INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Generally speaking, work stoppages and industrial activity tend to move together. But during the war, production rose steadily, days lost through strikes dropped. 30 300 Mon-Days Lost MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS LOST THROUGH STRIKES 20 200 10 100 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1935-39-100 Industrial Production o o 1927 '28 '29 '30 13. 32 33 '34 '35 36 '37 '38 39 '40 '41 '42 '43 1944" *Estimote bosed on first four months. WAR PROGRESS as many man-days; to industrial acci- big business years like 1937. Yet last dents, two or three times. year when business volume was more than But absenteeism or industrial acci- twice as great as in 1937, man-days dents are popularly considered part lost because of strikes were only half of the day's work, like the weather. as great (chart, above). Strikes, however, are man-made; they are more or less deliberate, consequently CHIEF ISSUE IS WAGES are regarded-by and large-as repre- The basic issue in mostwartime strikes hensible, avoidable interferences with has been wages and hours, reflecting the war effort. labor's dissatisfaction with the wage stabilization policy and high cost of PLEDGE TAKEN SERIOUSLY living (chart, page 9). Wage and hour To soldiers at the front, strikes disputes accounted for 51% of all strikes look particularly bad. Nevertheless, in 1943 and 80% of the time lost. Union the fact remains that labor has taken organization issues, whichwere respon- its no-strike pledge seriously. His- sible for more than half of the strikes torically, strikes occur most frequently before the war, were the major issue in when industrial activity is extremely only 16% of last year's. About 30% were high. Labor leaders know that when busi- called because of other working condi- ness is good, their chances of getting tions, and jurisdictional or intraunion wage increases are good. Hence, the disputes-perhaps the least defensible big strike years have customarily been kind of strike in wartime-accounted CONFIDENTIAL JUNE 3, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL 15 for 4%. Here was the pattern for 1943: organization issues; more than half the % of % of Man- strikers for this reason got what they Major Issue Strikes Days Idle wanted (union recognition, maintenance Wages & hours 51% 80% of membership, etc.), but only 10% who Union organization.. 16 6 struck for wage boosts realized sub- Other working con- stantial gains, and these primarily in ditions 29 11 cases inwhich the War Labor Board agreed Inter- or intraunion 4 3 to iron out inequities in the wage struc- ture. Workers won substantial gains in Reasons for the present wave are about 30% of these strikes. A quarter various. One is, no doubt, that workers of the settlements represented partial feel less sense of urgency about war gains or compromises, another quarter production; cutbacks naturally cause a little or no gain, and about 20% are psychological reaction. indeterminate or still pending. Work- A central reason is the accumulated ers' successes were chiefly in union fatigue and strain, due to relatively SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS Employment* Hours and Earnings Some Some Lotest Preceding 2 Months 6 Months Year Month Month Month Month Ago Ago Ago 1939 1937 NONAGRIC. EMPLOYMENT- TOTAL 38,383 P 38,550 38,707 39,603 39,708 29,470 n.a. Manufacturing-Total 16,137 P 16,386 16,607 17,079 16,758 9,787 Duroble goods 9,779 ₽ 9,950 10,064 10,264 9,937 4,296 Nondurable goods 6,358 P 6,456 6,543 6,815 6,821 5,491 Government 5,905 P 5,871 5,830 5,847 5,945 3,927 Other 16,341 P 16,293 16,270 16,677 17,005 15,756 n.a. LABOR FORCE- TOTAL (millions) 52.0 P 51.3 51.1 53.0 52.5 n.a. n.a. Employment 51.3 P 50.5 50.3 52.2 51.6 Mole 34.4 P 34.0 34.0 34.8 35.5 Female 16.9 P 16.5 16.2 17.4 16.1 Unemployment .8 I is is .9 is n.a. n.a. AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS (dollars) All manufacturing industries 45.62 45.44r 45.29m 44.39 41.75 23.76 24.45 Durable goods 51.52 51.37m 51.21r 51.01 47.79 25.93 27.39 Nondurable goods 36.55 36.37Γ 36.03r 34.73 33.08 22.00 21.90 Bituminous cool mining 52.24 52.99 52.50r 45.96 43.13 23.49 26.22 Metalliferous mining 44.59 44.04r 43.70r 44.76 41.61 27.66 30.57 AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS (cents) All monufacturing industries 100.6 100.3 100.2 I 99.3 93.4 63.2 59.5 Duroble goods 110.2 110.0 109.9 109.7 103.0 69.7 64.0 Nonduroble goods 84.6 84.1 83.7 82.3 78.2 58.2 55.3 Bituminous cool mining 117.6 117.8 119.5 1° 116.8 111.9 88.4 78.6 Metolliferous mining 99.9 99.2 99.3 99.5 94.9 69.3 68.1 AVERAGE HOURS PER WEEK All monufacturing industries 45.3 45.3 r 45.2 44.7 44.7 37.6 41.1 Duroble goods 46.7 46.7 r 46.6 r 46.5 46.4 37.2 42.8 Nondurable goods 43.2 43.2 43.0 r 42.2 42.3 37.8 39.6 Bituminous cool mining 44.5 45.2 44.0 39.4 38.6 26.5 33.8 Metalliferous mining 44.5 44.3 43.9 44.8 43.7 40.2 45.0 *Entire series revised. **Employment, April; Hours and Earnings, March. P Preliminary. n.s. Not available. r Revised. ? Figures are rounded and do not necessarily add to total. CONFIDENTIAL 16 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS long hours, congested living conditions, another with getting out production- wartime dislocations generally. This add to the uncertainties of labor lead- explains why the great majority of strikes ers, the unrest of workers. have been spontaneous and without union Although the number of strikes has authorization, why there's no clearpat- been on the increase during the war, tern or specific cause for the recent the great majority have been settled wave. Workers findall kinds of excuses promptly: the average duration has fall- for letting off steam, some of them ensteadily from 23 days in 1939 to five trivial. Recently a group quit because days in 1943. Hence working time lost a company stopped serving coffee in the because of strikes has been well under afternoon. Such hothead strikes are the prewar rate. In the ten years be- usually settled quickly and are small. fore Pearl Harbor, man-days lost aver- aged over 16,000,000 a year, ranging WARTIME INSTABILITY from 28,400,000 in 1937 to a low of 6,- Also, the war has introduced a cer- 700,000 in 1940. In 1942-despite a tain degree of instability into rela- big increase in employment and indus- tions between employers and employees trial activity-the total fell to 4,- and union leaders and union members 200,000. It held at this rate during which tends to increase strike volatil- 1943 except for the big coal strikes: ity. For one thing, experienced labor these boosted the total to 13,600,000 leaders-not of top rank but of second- man-days, representing .15% of total ary rank, who hold the men in line- working time. The rate for this year have been drafted. For another thing, so far is about 6,000,000-a 50% jump the migration of large numbers of work- over 1942, though still under the low- ers to new plants brings in a group of est figure in the prewar decade. workers who are (1) unacquainted with the plant labor leaders, hence are apt COMPARISON NOT ODIOUS to go off on their own, and (2) do not This record compares favorably with have their roots in the community, hence that of Great Britain, which has a na- feel less responsible about quitting tional service act administered by a work. Add a shortage of experienced labor leader. In Britain, the number supervisors too, and there are plenty of man-days lost because of strikes has of chances for things to go wrong. been rising steadily since 1940. (The same is true in Canada and New Zealand, T00 MANY COOKS whichalsohave national service legis- As a further factor, somany agencies lation.) In 1942 the total time lost are concerned nvarious ways with man- was proportionately higher than in the power-the War Manpower Commission, the U.S. Last year, because of the coal War Production Board, the Army, the strikes here, the relationship was re- Navy, the Department of Labor, the War versed: but this year coal strikes have Labor Board, the National Labor Rela- in turn carried Britain well over the tions Board, etc.-that a consistent, U.S. rate. In both countries coal min- coordinated labor policy has been dif- ing is the only industry that has been ficult to attain. Overlapping juris- hit by industry-wide strikes. No other diction and conflicting interests-one industry has lost as much as 1% of an- agency concerned withholding the line, nual working time. CONFIDENTIAL War Progress is loaned to you for official use. It contains CONFIDENTIAL information affecting the security of the United States. Revelation of its contents in any manner to unauthorized persons is prohibited by the Espionage Act. OFFICIAL RULES for its CUSTODY (1) Not to permit Information from copy in their custody to become available to anyone except a Government employee under their immediate supervision who will be bound by the restrictions hereby agreed to and who requires access to WAR PROGRESS in connection with his official duties, (2) To keep all copies in a securely locked container when not actually in use (3) Not to incorporate Information from WAR PROGRESS in any record unless the use of such record is restricted as If the record were itself a copy of WAR PROGRESS. (4) To give prior written notice of any change of address. (5) On written request, or before separation from the Govern- ment position which entitles them to receive WAR PRO- GRESS, to return all copies charged to their account. WAR PROGRESS Disclosure Punishable Under Espiomage Act 5 W NEW Economic Data Special Articles Form GA-90-8D (8-2) UNITED STATES OF AMERICA : WAR PRODUCTION BOARD COURIER SERVICE CONTROL RECORD S- 89776 FROM: TO: STATISTICS DIVISION The President (NAME) (NAME) R.C.S. TITLE mile IROOM NUMBER The thite House IBUILDING) IROOM NUMBER) IBUILDING) DESCRIPTION OF DOCUMENT W.P.195 #1 3 COPY 3 THE SERIAL NUMBER IN THE UPPER RIGHT-HAND CORNER Addressee's Copy SHOULD BE IDENTICAL TO NUMBER ON SENDER'S RECEIPT ... - The President 1 WAR PROGRESS C.F. Discloser Under Expirience Adt Was Production Board Preinvasion Production: Emphasis on Planes, Landing Craft Scorecard on Merchant Shipping DECLASSIFIED x4735 E.O. 11602 Ben 3(E) and MD) et (i) Commerce Dept. Lessor, 11-16-73 x99 x249@fficral Naval Bly. Folder R Date MAR 14 1973 Number 195 June 10, 1944 WAR PROGRESS Prepared in the War Production Board Donald M. Nelson, Chairman War Progress is a confidential report designed to provide a coordinated and continuing picture of the overall war program for the various war agencies. To this end, it presents, analyzes, and interprets basic statistical and economic information, and from time to time examines the pros and cons of controversial questions. Although War Progress is an official publication of the War Production Board, statements in it are not to be construed as expressing official attitudes of the Board as a whole, or even of individual members, Conclusions, whenever reached, should be considered editorial conclusions. War Progress is prepared in the Bureau of Planning and Statistics (Stacy May, Director) by the Munitions Branch (Morris A. Copeland, Chief). Editorial Staff Editor, Joseph A. Livingston; Associates: Thomas A, Falco, Roy T: Frye (drafting), Winona Hibbard Morris Katz, Chester L. Kieffer, John C. Loeser, Herbert J. Muller, J.S. Werking (production). Contributors Joseph A. Zettler ( munitions ), William F. Butler ( aircraft). J. Ronald Meiklejohn (communications and electronics), Herbert Stein ( economics). This report contains CONFIDENTIAL information affecting the defense of the United States. See inside back cover for rules of custody. CONFIDENTIAL NUMBER 195 WAR PROGRESS JUNE 10, 1944 Invasion Weapons Set Production Pace Munitions output up 2%. Planes set record in mixed showing. Airborne radar climbed airframe weight and ship deliveries hit oll- 24%, but still missed the goal by a time high, landing croft rising 50%. Heavy slight margin; combat and motor vehi- guns show big gain. cles declined but still did slightly better than plan. Some difficult pro- WAR PRODUCTION in May was a fitting grams, such as heavy-heavy trucks, re- preface to invasion. At $5,545,000,000 mained difficult and didn't quite come (preliminary), munitions output was up to expectations. But altogether, right on schedule, 2% over April. And the last preinvasion month made plain the weapons that spearheaded the inva- that we're getting substantially what sion-aircraft, landing vessels, naval we set out to get. That production is ships, heavy artillery-also led the still under the peak reached last No- way in production. vember is a sign of success, not of Dollarwise, the aircraft programmade failure; the pipelines are full, the the scheduled $100,000,000 gain over strategic requirements are now replace- April (table, page 5). On an airframe- ment requirements. weight basis, planes rose 9% to reach an unscheduled new peak. Heavy bombers RISE IN PRODUCTIVITY did particularlywell, but all major com- Moreover, the gain in output last bat types met or exceeded expectations. month was made despite an estimated drop of another 100,000 in munitions RECORD MONTH SHIPS employment. This indicates a rise in The Navy had the biggest month in productivity over the rate of recent its construction history. Ship comple- months (WP-Jun3'44, pl). tions jumped to an all-time high of Hence the rising schedules in the 400,000 displacement tons, or almost months ahead raise few grave or urgent 100,000 over the previous peak of last questions. They should be substantially November. Most spectacular performers met-if need be. The central question were the all-important landing vessels. now, on whichall others hinge, remains Running about 10% ahead of astiff sched- the outcome of the invasion. ule, deliveries reached a total of 198,- A serious setback or a quick victory 000 tons, more than 50% over the record would obviously bring changes in cur- set in April. rent production schedules. In any event Heavy artillery came through with we can expect some spotty increases a bang, 27% over April and 12% over and decreases as battle experience proves schedule. All types of big guns shared that we have more of some weapons than in the gains, none fell short of the we need, less of others. But estimating goal. Output of spare cannon-quanti- the size and shape of the munitions pro- tatively a small item but strategically gram at the end of the year is now an an important one-also ran well ahead academic pastime. of forecast. Heavy artillery ammuni- Meanwhile, however, May also drama- tion was on schedule. tized the new chapter in the old manpower For the rest, there was the usual story. On the one hand, labor shortages CONFIDENTIAL 2 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS in several basic industries, notably throughout the list end more models forge-and-foundry, may slow up key pro- were precisely on the mark than ever grams (WP-Jun3'44, pll). On the other before, indicating that the program hand, the Brewster affair headlined the has reached a new high in realistic problem of laid-off workers and "cut- scheduling. And in contrast to April, back jitters." Both point to what's when schedule was missed by 3%, May was likely to be the main problem from now 2% ahead. on in: keeping enough war workers on Acceptances of 88 B-29 Superfortresses the job, maintaining high productivity overshot the goal by six planes. Boeing and morale while some war programs are at Wichita accounted for five of these, rising, others falling, and almost all turning out 65 Superforts against a slate subject to drastic revision. of 60: the other was chalked up by Mar- Altogether, it can't be repeated too tin, Omaha. In April, it was Boeing, often that victory in Europe-not to Wichita, that pulled the overall total mention the Pacific-hasn't been won of B-29 acceptances down to 51, or 19 yet: there's still a big war production planes below schedule. That's when the job to do. Nevertheless the fact re- plant began to make modifications di- mains that management and labor have an rectly on the assembly line instead of understandable tendency to beat the gun, at modification centers. More modifi- to look to their peacetime prospects. cations are on the way: but considering And if it's a nice question which is the job done by Wichita in May, they harder-preparing for the worst or pre- should be taken in stride. paring for the best-the basic problem right now is that we have to be ready 400 SUPERFORTRESSES for either. Including three experimental models, more than 400 Superfortresses have al- Aircraft ready been accepted since their debut May was A great month for planes. in July, 1943: here's where they came The 8,902 accepted ran 559 ahead of from: April: and with heavy bombers making a brilliant showing, airframe weight scored Boeing, Wichita 332 Bell, Atlanta 50 a gain of 9%. Indeed, at 89,829,000 pounds, it surpassed by more than 700,- Boeing, Renton 17 000 pounds the record set in March, when Martin, Omaha 6 Total acceptances hit a numerical peak of 405 9,117 planes. All Fort and Liberator plants were Monthly gains were well distributed up to or ahead of schedule, their com- bined output running to 1,488 planes, 6% better than called for. Boeing, Se- IN THIS ISSUE: attle, which came through with 300 Fly- INVASION WEAPONS SET PRODUCTION PACE ing Fortresses compared with - goal of 1 PRODUCTION PROGRESS PRELIMINARY 5 270, is being rescheduled at 300 per KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK 8 month to get into full B-29 production SCORECARD ON MERCHANT SHIPPING 9 by the end of the year instead of in MACHINE-TOOL TURNABOUT 10 SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS February, 1945. 11 WAR PROGRESS NOTES 12 Paralleling the performance in heavy bombers, May left little to be desired CONFIDENTIAL JUNE 10, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL 3 in medium bombers, light bombers, and modifications for the assembly line. fighters. Also, more transports were Here, P-40 Warhawk production was even turned out than ever before: 992 of all shut down for a spell torelease workers types. Even Douglas, Chicago, was a for the Commando, but inexperience made strong spot, acceptances of 16 C-54 Sky- them more of a hindrance than a help: masters beating schedule for the first besides, the flow of "bits and pieces" time-by one plane. But chiefly because got out of control. So the final count of adeficit in the C-46 Commando, trans- at Buffalo was 78 Commandos instead of ports were 6% off schedule on an air- 118. The Curtiss plant at Louisville, frame-weight basis. a newcomer to the Commando program, came In all, 81 Commandos were accepted, through with three out of a schedule of 35% short of the plan. At Curtiss, six. Buffalo, it was the old story of "more Changes in major groups against April THE "BIG TEN" OF THE INVASION Here are the planes which will play the major role in blasting enemy fortifications, transporting men and materiel, and covering Allied landings in France. B-24 LIBERATOR B-17 FLYING FORTRESS P-47 THUNDERBOLT A-20 BOSTON July 40- 1942 1943 Jon-May (Dec. 418 1944 B-25 BILLY MITCHELL And here's the cumulative pro- duction picture for all types. Communications C-47 SKYTRAIN and Other Tronsports Trainers P-38 LIGHTNING P-51 MUSTANG Fighters 8-26 MARAUDER Bombers B-29 SUPERFORTRESS 200,000 PLANES o 2 4 6 8 IO THOUSANDS OF PLANES-JULY, 1940, THROUGH MAY, 1944 WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 4 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS and the W-10 schedule follow (airframe- SBD Dauntless dive bomber in order to weight basis): help keep its labor force together until work on the new BTD dive bomber picks May Acceptances up. By contrast, the Army completed as % of its dive-bomber program last month as April W-10 29 RA-35 Vengeances came through at All military planes 109% 102% Consolidated Vultee, Nashville; this Army procured 110 103 clears the plant for work on the P-38 Navy procured 107 97 Lightning. Combat planes 109 103 Only one P-59 Aircomet, the Army's Superbombers 173 107 2-engined jet-propelled fighter, was Heavy bombers 109 106 ticketed for May at Bell, Buffalo, but Patrol bombers 109 87 six were accepted. And at Lockheed, Medium bombers 101 104 Burbank, the Lightning-favored fighter Light bombers 109 108 in the Pacific because of its two en- Fighters (incl. gines-was on the beam at 352. Produc- naval reconn. 103 98 tion of Northrop's night-fighting, 2- Transports 112 94 engined P-61 Black Widow came close to Trainers 102 117 the 45 scheduled: but a change in as- Communications 112 90 sembly methods held acceptances to 15, Plant of the month was Douglas, Long about half the April number. The ac- Beach. Not only did it beat schedule ceptance point for P-61s has been moved on the Flying Fortress and C-47 Skytrain from Northrop to Timm Aircraft, a sub- by good margins; it also topped its goal contractor installing the fuel tanks of 15 A-26 Invader light bombers by and armament. Until Timmgets intofull seven planes. Similarly, for the second swing, acceptances will lag behind pro- month in a row, Douglas at Tulsa went duction. over the mark on the A-26; the seven accepted compared with three scheduled. MUSTANG SHOWING However, the Invader is still a new Both North American plants came back model and hasn't seen the last of design strongly on the P-51 Mustang after hav- changes; this month, for example, the ing been held up in April and the first cockpit canopy is being redesigned. The half of May by design changes. In all, Army's other 2-engined light bomber, the 580 Mustangs rolled off the Dallas and A-20 Boston, was on the target with 297. Inglewood lines, 44% more than in April Because of a reduction in foreign demand, and only three planes shy of schedule. A-20 schedules will be revised so as to Acceptances of the P-63 Kingcobra at end production in September, 1944, in- Bell, Buffalo, crossed the century mark stead of August, 1945. for the first time to make its schedule of 110. This program has just been re- NAVY BOMBERS TOP GOAL duced; instead of a monthly peak of 450, Navy 1-engined light bombers ranhigh, the P-63 now levels out at 300. Reason: wide, and handsome. The 772 Helldivers, other top fighters such as the Mustang Avengers, and Dauntlesses that came and the Thunderbolt can do all that the through were 17% ahead of April and 5% cannon-equipped Kingcobra can do-and above schedule. Gains would have been more. greater still except that Douglas, El Because Brewster turned out 122 Cor- Segundo, is spreading out work on the sairs as against a schedule of 117, Navy CONFIDENTIAL JUNE 10, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL 5 fighters beat their schedule of 1,391 maining Corsair producers: but this work Corsairs, Wildcats, and Hellcats by five is unlikely to fill up the plant. planes. Brewster, Johnsville, is slated for use as a Navy modification center Naval Ships following the plant's cut-off date in The record-breaking 403,000 displace- July. At Long Island City, Brewster ment tons (preliminary) completed by may make some parts for Goodyear, Akron, the Navy last month were 56% over April, and Chance Vought, Stratford, the re- 1% over schedule. Landing vessels ac- PRODUCTION PROGRESS- Preliminary Value delivered or put in place-millions of dollars May April % % Deviation Moy Preliminary Actual Change Schedule* May Prelim vs. Schedule MUNITIONS AND WAR CONSTRUCTION $5,785 $5,693 2% 85,809 nil TOTAL MUNITIONS 5,545 5,454 2 5,569 nil Aircraft 1,725 1,622 6 1,721 nil Total airframes, engines, propellers 1,344 1,260 7 1,340 nil Airplone spore ports 355 337 5 354 nil Other aircraft and equipment (excl. commun) 26 25 4 27 4 Ships (incl. mointenance) 1,200 1,186 * 1 1,208 - 1 Novy 634 627 1 670 - 5 Combotant 238 264 -10 248 - 4 Londing Vessels 260 241 8 249 4 Other 136 122 +11 173 -21 Moritime 385 386 nil 362 6 Corgo and supply 275 281 2 262 5 Other 110 105 . 5 100 +10 Army Vessels 50 46 9 45 +11 Ship Maintenance and Repair 131 127 3 131 + Guns and Fire Control 285 290 - 2 287 - 1 Small orms (under 20mm.) 47 60 -22 51 8 Artillery, mortors, rocket launchers-ASF 58 58 o 54 . 7 Fire control and searchlight (excl. Rodor) 57 52 +10 59 - 3 Noval guns and other 123 120 3 123 o Ammunition 545 551 - 1 537 1 Small crms (under 20mm.) 49 58 -16 48 - 2 Artillery, mortors, rocket lounchers - ASF 180 195 - 8 176 . 2 Aerial bombs-ASF 115 102 +13 108 +6 Noval ommunition and other 201 196 + 3 205 -2 Combot and Motor Vehicles 430 448 - 4 422 2 Combot vehicles 160 177 -10 151 *6 Motor corriages for SP guns 32 31 * 3 31 +3 Automotive vehicles and tractors 238 240 - 1 240 -1 Communication and Electronic Equipment 380 377 . 1 392 -3 Radio 184 191 - 4 193 -5 Rodor 125 118 + 6 128 -2 All Other 71 68 . 4 71 o Other Equipment and Supplies 980 980 o 1,002 -2 WAR CONSTRUCTION (GOV'T. FINANCED) 240 239 . 1 240 + As of April 1 for Construction: as of May 1 for all others. , Schedule used for preliminary actual. CONFIDENTIAL 6 ... CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS MUNITIONS OUTPUT RESUMES CLIMB Aircraft moves back into plus column ofter April dip; ships and communication equipment also gain. Guns, ammunition, and combat vehicles decline as planned. 2500 1500 Aircroft Wor Construction 2000 1000 Total 1500 500 Airframes, Engines, Propellers 1000 o J F M A M J J A 5 o N D J F M A M J JASOND 943 1944 500 1000 Combot and Motor Vehicles Airplane Spare Parts VALUE DELIVERED OR PUT IN PLACE-MILLIONS OF DOLLARS Total o JFMAMJ J A S o N o J F M A M J JASOND 500 1943 Automotive Vehicles 1944 and Tractors Combat Vehicles 1500 o Ships (including maintenance) J F M A M J J A S o N J F M M J J 5 N D 1943 1944 Total 1000 1000 Ammunition VALUE DELIVERED OR PUT IN PLACE-MILLIONS OF DOLLARS Total 500 Moritime 500 Artillery, Mortors, Novy Combatant Small Arms Rocket Lounchers, ASF (under 20mm) Londing Vessels > o JFMAMJJ A $ o N D J F M A M J J A N D o JFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASOND M 1943 1944 1943 1944 1000 Communication and Electronic Equipment 1000 Guns and Fire Control 500 500 Total Total Rodio Artillery, Mortors, Rocket Lounchers, ASF Small Arms (under 20mm) o Radar J F M A M J J A 5 o N J F M J A $ N D o 1943 JFMAMJ J ASONDJFMAMJJASOND 1944 1943 1944 Note: Actual through April, May preliminary May I schedule therecfter. WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL JUNE 10, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL 7 counted for about half the tonnage, but cumulated over the first five months three big ships also came through to of the program, and this was presumably swell the total: the 10,000-ton cruiser made up in the first week of June. All "Astoria," the 27,000-ton aircraft car- types made the original goal except the rier "Ticonderoga, = and the 45,000-ton LSTs and LVTs. And the LSTs have been battleship "Wisconsin." All major cat- going at a terrific clip: 82 were com- egories shared in the gains, and only pleted in May-seven more than sched- auxiliary and minor craft fell appreci- uled-compared with 28 as recently as ably short of schedule (thousands of March. They missed by only nine the displacement tons): seven-month goal of 260 ships. Deliv- % Change From eries April Schedule NEW LSMs GOING STRONG Combatants 142 +69% -1% Also notable was the new medium land- Landing vessels. 198 +51 +9 ing ship-a 490-ton seagoing type, the Patrol & mine 13 nil -7 first three of which were completed in Aux. & all other 50 +61 -11 April. This proved one of the very few Total 403 +56% +1% exceptions to the rule that new programs The spectacular closing rush of the have trouble getting under way. The 39 November-May landing-vessel program LSMs delivered last month carried the carried it within an ace of the 750,- program more than 60% over the original 000-ton goal set by the Joint Chiefs of goal of 26 for the seven-month period. Staff (chart, below); it wiped out The May peak in total ships completed all but 12,000 tons of the deficit ac- will probably remain the Navy's all-time BIG PUSH IN MAY FOR BIG PUSH IN JUNE Last month, deliveries of landing craft shot up, almost meeting the original goal set by the Joint Chiefs of Staff. 800 800 Landing Craft Deliveries (Cumulative) 600 600 THOUSANDS OF DISPLACEMENT TONS 400 400 All Other THOUSANDS OF DISPLACEMENT TONS 200 200 LST o o Nov. Dec. Jon. Feb. Mor. Apr. May ORIGINAL 1943 1944 GOAL Note: May production preliminary WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 8 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK Lotest Preceding Month 6 Months Year Week Week Ago Ago Ago Wor program-Checks paid (millions of dollors) 1,601 1,664 1,770 1,802 1,604 Wor bond soles-E,F,G, (millions of dollars) 274 163 169 211 117 Money in circulation (millions of dollars) 22,112 21,911 21,614 19,940 17,196 Wholesole prices (1926=100) All commodities 103,9° 103,9* 103.7° 102.8 103.9 Form products 123.9° 123.7° 123,3° 121.8 126.3 Foods 105,2 104.9 105.0 105.6 110,6 All other 98.7° 98.7° 98.6 97.6 96.6 Petroleum: Total U.S. stocks (thousands of borrels) 410,434 410,926 410,660 429,328 434.712 Total Eost Coost stocks (thousands of borrels) 59.537 57,831 57,067 66,840 44,943 East Coast receipts (thousands of borrels, daily average) 1,786 1,777 1,762 1,412 1,301 Bituminous cool production (thousands of short tons,daily average) 2,096 2,050 2,060 2,147 1,990 Steel operations (% of capacity) 97.8% 97.5% 99.5% 99.3% 97.5% Freight cors unlooded for export, excluding grain (daily overoge) Atlantic Coost ports 3,200 Gulf Coost ports 3,436 3,440 2,922 2,314 543 425 348 393 Pacific Coost ports 340 1,666 1,648 1,536 1,311 1,344 Department store soles (% change from 0 year ago) n.a. 11$ 9% -75 2% p. Preliminary Excludes militory-owned stocks high for the war. The landing-vessel and five transports. Military types as program, for example, now turns downward. a whole ran 28% ahead of schedule. Schedules call for a sharp drop to 157,- 000 tons in June, then a tapering off to Army Ordnance a low of 132,000 tons in October. This Ground army munitions came through low, however, will still be higher than about as planned. Production declined the peak prior to May. generally, but, except for automotive vehicles and small arms, ran ahead of Merchant Ships schedule. Total Maritime construction of 1,- The best performance was in heavy 545,000 deadweight tons (preliminary) artillery, needed for the invasion; last monthwas 3% under April but 1% over production of guns over 105mm. was up schedule. Main reason for the drop was 27% over April and exceeded schedule the declining Liberty ship program; 67 by 12%. Output of the 155mm. howitzer Libertys were built, compared with 79 rose from 168 in April to 196, and 28 in April and a schedule of 71. However, of the 155mm. guns were produced, as 16 Victorys, 14 standard cargo ships, against 15 in April. Both beat sched- and 24 tankers came through-in each ule. The 8-inchfieldgun, 8-inch how- case one more than called for. The new itzer, and the 240mm. howitzer all showed Victory ship program beat schedule for big increases and met sharply rising the first time, schedules. Output of spare cannon for In addition, Maritime completed five heavy artillery was 10% ahead of the aircraft carrier escorts, 10 frigates, goal. And ammunition for all of these CONFIDENTIAL JUNE 10, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL 9 SCORECARD ON MERCHANT SHIPPING Sinkings of United Nations vessels in May drop to lowest level of the war - 82% under the previous low in November; construction rises to 1944 peak. 3000 3000 Sinkings vs. Construction* 2000 2000 Construction Schedule 1000 Sinkings 1000 o o +2000 +2000 Net Loss (or Gain)-Monthly Goin THOUSANDS OF DEADWEIGHT TONS +1000 +1000 o o THOUSANDS OF DEADWEIGHT TONS Loss -1000 -1000 +10,000 +10,000 The Cumulative Deficit or Surplus +5000 +5000 Surplus o o -5000 Deficit -5000 -10,000 -10,000 -15,000 -15,000 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 *Includes all types of vessels except those in Novol service. WAR PROGRESS CONFIDENTIAL 10 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS guns came through right on schedule. to a good start: 62 sets were delivered The failure of automotive vehicles against a schedule of 40. to meet schedule was due primarily to In sharp contrast to airborne, ground heavy-heavy trucks, which dropped 3% radar-a declining program-was down and were 5% short of schedule. And the 19% from April but still 2% ahead of June goal for heavy-heavies rises sharply schedule. As a result, radar as A whole -44% higher than May. Trucks of 2á rose only 6%, was just 2% short of the tons and under missed their mark by a goal. small margin, but the amphibious truck Wire communication, underwatersound, -the Duck-was again on schedule. and miscellaneous signal equipment were Tractors recovered from the April up 4% from April and right on schedule. slump: output rose 5% and was 2% ahead of schedule, in contrast to April-59 behind. Machine-Tool Turnabout The M4 medium tank mounting the 105mm. howitzer topped the goal for the second Growing demonds for heavy shells and guns, new consecutive month, with 179 delivered, engines, etc. bring rise in orders; facilities as against 154 in April and A schedule are tight again as builders work on direct of 175. The goal reaches a peak of wor contracts. 270 this month. The M4 tank mounting FOR THE FIRST TIME in 20 months, the the 76mm. gun beat schedule for the first backlog of unfilled orders on the books time-by 4%; deliveries were 470, RS of the machine-tool builders has turned compared to 339 in April and a schedule upward. of 450. However, the goal rises sharnly The story goes back to last Novem- to 725 in June. ber. Then, new tool orders were con- Production of aerial bombs, once tinuing to fall, backlogs to decline: again an accelerating program, increased builders were cutting their working 13% and ran 5% over schedule. forces. They geared their 1944 produc- Signal Equipment tion to net new orders running in the neighborhood of $30,000,000 a month. Communication and electronic equip- ment WAS un only slightly over April ORDERS UP, SHIPMENTS DOWN production and missed schedule by 3%. But since the start of this year, The biggest deficit was in radio-down net new orders for machine tools have 4% from April and 5% short of the goal. risen steadily-from $26,500,000 in Airborne radar rose 24% but was still January to $54,900,000 in April: and 39 short of the sharply rising sched- further increases are anticipated for ule. Although output of countermeasure the next two or three months. equipment (AN/APT-1, AN/APQ-2, and AN/- Monthly shipments, on the other hand, APQ-9), designed to jam enemy sets, have continued to fall, from $55,400,000 nearly doubled April production, it fell in January to $51,800,000 in March: then 24% short of the goal and was largely in April they dropped sharply to $41,- responsible for the deficiency in the 200,000, reflecting the paucity of or- airborne radar program. Deliveries ders scheduled last December. Builders' totaled 1,010 sets, as against 522 in order boards are tight and new orders April and a schedule of 1,325. The new are piling up: where formerly certain warning equipment, AN/APS-13, got off tools-turret lathes, various types of CONFIDENTIAL JUNE 10, 1944 CONFIDENTIAL SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS Food Production-Employment-Expenditures-Retai Store Sales Some Some Latest Preceding 2 Months 6 Months Year Month Month Month Month Ago Ago Ago 1939 1937 FOOD PRODUCTION Dairy products (million pounds) Butter, creamery 130.8 a a 150,2 147.5 131.4 Cheese 87.9 83.6 58.3 52.3 Evoporated milk 318,2 288.9 203.9 185.0 Meats-fotal (incl. lard, million pounds) 1,746 1,384 955 957 Beef and veol 546.9 466.9 390.6 443.7 Lomb and mutton 58.7 64.1 50.8 54.2 Pork, incl. lord 1,140.1 853.3 513.2 458.7 Lord 221.8 5 5 132.8 85.6 66.1 Poultry and eggs Eggs (millions) 6,978 6,763 5,346 2,957 6,727 5,042 5,005 Poultry (receipts of 5 principal 19.7 16.7* 20.4 53.2 9.5 16,2 18.6 markets, million pounds) FEDERAL CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT (thousands) 3,048 r 3,033 3,027 3,000 3,049 n.a. n.a. Wor agencies 2,175 E 2,171 2,162 2,171 2,234 Wor department 1,277 [ 1,238 1,240 1,276 1,394 Novy department 720 r 714 704 677 619 Other 222 E 219 218 218 221 Nonwor agencies 873 C 862 865 829 815 n.a. n.a. CONSUMER EXPENDITURES (million dollors) 7,958 7,272 7,402 7,672 7,250 5,042 5,300 Goods 5,430 4,742 4,862 5,237 4,826 3,169 3,477 Services 2,526 2,530 2,539 2,435 2,424 1,873 1,823 RETAIL STORE SALES-TOTAL (million dollors) 5,408 5,592 4,827 5,721 5,212 3,471 3,647 Durable goods stores 720 750 631 807 792 885 1,098 Nonduroble goods stores 4,638 4,843 4,196 4,914 4,420 2,586 2,549 *Food Production, Retail Store, Sales, April; all other, March. 8 Seasonal influences invalidate month-to-month comparisons. T Revised. e Estimated. n.s. Not available. P Preliminary. drills, automatic screw machines, etc.- of contracts to produce shells, engine could be delivered in four months, it parts, bomb bays, radioand radar equip- now takes seven or eight. ment, etc. In addition, many toolbuild- The new orders have been coming from ers and subcontractors who helped push stepped-up programs-heavy artillery output toan all-time peak in 1942 have ammunition, rockets, and aircraft en- withdrawn from the field and their fa- gines, for example. At the beginning cilities are no longer available. of the year, estimated machine-tool re- Particularly tight are 20 general- quirements for 1944 totaled $325,000,- purpose types-automatic screw machines, 000; now they have been boosted to $600,- boring machines, drills, grinders, en- 000,000 and may go higher if more new gine and turret lathes, millers, press- programs come through. And though this ers, shapers, shears, forging machines, is still well under 1943 output of $1,- etc. These can be sold or transferred 180,000,000, machine-tool facilities are only with WPB approval. In addition, now tied up in other war work. When new programs usually require new spe- orders were low at the end of last year, cial-purpose tools, such as lathes for the War Production Board released some turning and machining shells for the facilities, urged the companies to go heavy ammunition program. out after other war production. Thus The problem comes down to this: There builders took onwell over $100,000,000 is no manpower shortage in the industry, CONFIDENTIAL 12 CONFIDENTIAL WAR PROGRESS but workers and facilities formerly men) rose to some 67,000,000 deadweight devoted to toolbuilding are now employed tons at the end of March, 88 against in munitions production. WPB accord- 43,000,000 tons in the summer of 1942, ingly trying to get the Army and Navy, the lowest point during the war. wherever it is practicable, to pull mu- nitions contracts out of the machine- FORD TO BE FIRST tool plants and place them elsewhere. LAST YEAR the 20-odd plants in the U.S. Otherwise delayed deliveries and in- produced aircraft engines with a total creasing backlogs of machine tools will of 339,500,000 horsepower. Pratt & continue. Whitney, East Hartford, led, with Buick, Melrose Park, second, and Wright Aero- War Progress Notes nautical, Cincinnati, third. Seven plants turned out more than 30,000,000 NEW LOW IN SINKINGS horsepower each, as follows: LAST MONTH, for the first time since the war began, not a single United States Plant Horsepower merchant ship was lost-this despite (000s) the fact that Atlantic and Pacific ports Pratt & Whitney, have been handling record volumes of East Hartford 52,500 freight inpreparation for the invasion Buick, (WP-May20'44,p9). Only five merchant Melrose Park 39,000 vessels in all-some 35,000 deadweight Wright Aeronautical, tons-were lost by the United Nations. Cincinnati 37,800 One of these, a small ship, sank in an Allison, accident. Thus sinkings dropped to the Indianapolis 36,300 lowest level of the war-824 under the Chevrolet, previous low of last November. Tonawanda 35,100 For the first five months of this Studebaker, year, sinkings amounted to some 920,000 South Bend 34,500 deadweight tons, as against 3,300,000 Ford, tons in the same period last year. In- Dearborn 32,000 deed, sinkings have dropped so low that ordinary perils of the sea-accidents, According to the current WE-9 schedule collisions, etc.-loom large in compari- (now being revised)-and giving effect with sinkings by enemy action. "Or- to actual production in the first quarter dinary perils" accounted for 25% of all -Ford jumps into the Number 1 spot this sinkings so far this year: in April they year with a virtually doubled goal of were responsible for more than 40%. 62,500,000 horsepower, and Pratt& Whit- On the other hand, United Nations ney drops to third place with 48,300,000 construction in May rose to more than horsepower. Wright, Cincinnati, is 1,600,000 deadweight tons (excluding second (60,800.000), displacing Buick, conversions) for the 1944 high. Indeed, which falls to sixth place (44,400,000). construction has been over the million- Ford, Dearborn, and Wright Aeronau- ton-a-month mark ever since September, tical, Cincinnati, are each slated for 1942 (chart, page 9). As a result, the greater aircraft engine output this year United Nations-controlled merchant fleet than the entire industry produced in (including military and neutral merchant- 1941: 50,700,000 horsepower. 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