Office of War Information - Survey of Intelligence, July 1942

PRESIDENT'S SECRETARY'S FILE Subject File Office of War Information:Survey Of Intelligence: July 1942 Box 155 July 1, 1942 SURVEY OF INTELLIGENCE MATERIALS No. 30 Office of War Information Office of Facts and Figures Bureau of Intelligence OFFICE OF WAR INFORMATION OFFICE OF FACTS AND FIGURES WASHINGTON July 3, 1942 My dear Miss Tully: I am sending you herewith a copy of the latest Survey of Intelligence Materials prepared for the Director of the Office of Facts and Figures. Sincerely yours, R. Keith Kane Assistant Director In Charge, Bureau of Intelligence Miss Grace Tully Secretary President of the United States The White House Washington, D.C. 1 DECLASSIFIED July 1, 1942 SURVEY OF INTELLIGENCE MATERIALS No. 30 Office of War Information Office of Facts and Figures Bureau of Intelligence CONTENTS CURRENT INFLUENCES ON OPINION page 1 News Atmosphere page 1 Impatience page 1 Irritation page 3 Developing Situations page 5 Laval page 5 Labor page 5 Gasoline page 6 Rubber page 6 Car Pooling page 6 Odell Waller page 6 Congress page 7 ENEMY ALIEN MINORITIES page 8 Summary page 8 Attitudes Toward Enemy Aliens page 9 Treatment of Aliens page 10 Foreign Language Communications page 11 Limitations of the Data page 11 The Italian-Americans page 12 Impact of the Mar page 13 The German-Americans page 16 Other German-American Groups page 17 Predominant Reaction page 18 Conclusions page 18 Sources page 20 CURRENT INFLUENCES ON OPINION News Atmosphere The fortnight has produced a dramatic shift from ebullience to gloom. News media, which but lately told of crippling the Japanese and Italian fleets, of disintegration within Germany, of Axis frustration on the Eastern front, now devote themselves largely to stories of disaster. Only the RAF raid on Bremen relieved the darkness. The fall of Tobruk and Matruh, Nazi gains around Kharkov and Sevastopol, Japanese landings in the Aleutians and allied shipping lossed in the Caribbean have given a somber tint to all front-pages and news broadcasts. Public think- ing inevitably reflects this coloration of the news media. Two reactions - impatience and irritation - appear to be emerging. Impatience The latest Roosevelt-Churchill conference at the White House, accented by the appointment of General Eisenhower to a command in the European theater, has revived speculation about a second front in Europe. Among newspapers which have been consistently sympathetic to the Government's foreign policy, the speculation is expressed in terms of guarded hopes. This second front, observes the San Francisco Chronicle, "is the thing the American and British people most want. They believe, in spite of Tokyo head-wagging, that it can be done and that it will put a crimp in both Hitler and Japan." The Washington Star encourages anticipation that Europe will be invaded by remarking that an over-cautious policy may lead to the downfall of Russia and to a five-year war. "The alternative, it seems clear, is to gamble on a major Allied offensive this year, and Mr. Churchill and Mr. Roosevelt will have to de- cide whether we can take that risk." - 2 - The Christian Science Monitor bolsters the hope obliquely by observing that "Much will depend on what Britain and America can do to split Nazi power with an active second front. In figuring the value of such a front and of con- tinued direct aid to Russia they will do well to estimate what the situation would be without Russia - or without what Russia has done to the Nazis in the last year". These hopeful suggestions that a second front may be in the offing have lately been supplemented by outright demands on the part of newspapers which have been consistently hostile to the war policies of this administration. The New York Daily News and its Washington satellite have suddenly become full of fervor for a direct assault on the European continent. "Isn't this the opportune moment?" they ask rhetorically. And they go on to suggest that the British throw an expeditionary force of 1,500,000 men across the channel. American soldiers, they say, should be sent along with the British. The exhor- tation is accompanied by a grim warning: "But if Britain and the United States do not grab this chance now, it looks as if the chance will be a long time returning, if it ever does return. Russia may be hammered out of the war, or forced into a separate peace either of which events would mean the dis- appearance from the fight of the Ally which, to date, has put up the best Allied fight, and would allow Hitler to turn on us with full strength. If we don't get going now, it looks as if the war will be prolonged into a conflict which will in the end mean the ruin of all concerned." The attitude expressed in this Patterson editorial may indicate a significant change in the isolationist line -- an attempt to persuade the public to expect action which is probably not now feasible. It sets the stage for an accusation that the Government has not been sufficiently vigorous in the - 3 - prosecution of the war. And, at the same time, it prepares for a return to conventional isolationism in the form of insistence later on that the time for a second front has past. If a United Nations invasion of Europe is not imminently practicable, the encouragement of popular expectation that it will soon take place may have injurious results. For unrealized hopes can afflict morale as dangerously as defeats. Irritation Reverses have given rise to renewed criticism of allied leadership. There is some tendency in news stories, rather than in editorial comment, to blame the loss of Tobruk on a lack of skill and imagination among British com- manders. Despite editorial efforts to represent the loss as one sustained by the United Nations as a whole, the news gave fuel to a minority feeling that the British are not doing all they can to win the war. This feeling has under- gone a sharp rise. The Princeton University Office of Public Opinion Research, in a telegraphic poll on June 26, asked again a question which it has posed to national samples at frequent intervals since mid-November of last year - "Do you think the British are doing all they possibly can to win the war?" The negative responses to this question rose markedly after the fall of Singapore and decreased significantly in recent weeks when the RAF was intensively raid- inc Western Europe. How they are up again to a point even beyond that reached after the Singapore disaster. Criticism of the British is paralleled, though less sharply, by criticism of the American war effort. Distrust of Britain found its most flagrant manifestation during the week in Senator Ellender's assertion that she "fell down on the job" and that - 4 - "the American people are pretty tired of sending food and war weapons to England and having England, with an army of 4,000,000 men, sitting at home on its haunches doing nothing." The current irritation finds expression also in fresh demands for greater unification of the United Nations command. Some commentators, such as Major George Fielding Eliot, urge that President Roosevelt take responsibility for supreme direction of the allied war effort. Others recommend a small board of strategy concerned exclusively with over-all, long-range planning. There was extremely widespread editorial anger over the somewhat cavalier fashion with which official releases treated the landing of Japanese forces at Attu and Kiska. The prevailing feeling appears to be that these landings constitute a danger the seriousness of which should not be minimized by the Government. At Kiska Island, a Scripps-Howard editorial warns, the Japanese "have pierced our defense line, flanked the nearby Russian bases, covering about half the distance between Tokyo and Seattle. Within 24 hours Japanese submarines were able to shell a Canadian radio station on Vancouver Island and our Oregon coast". And the editorial concludes sardonically, "Certainly those shots could be heard in the Roosevelt-Churchill conference room". The climate in which public opinion has been directed by thought leaders and the media of information during the past week is, on the whole, one of real- istic awareness of the difficulties ahead. But the realism, coming so suddenly on the heels of pervasive overconfidence, contains elements which may also be disturbing to national morale. Forceful action such as the RAF raid on Bremen seems the best possible antidote. - 5 - Developing Situations Laval Pierre Laval's assertion that he desires Germany's victory revived editorial exhortation for a diplomatic break with his government. "A black- mailer's bargain", "a new kind of swindle", "a weird nightmare" are terms ap- plied by radio commentators to Laval's speech. The New York Herald Tribune charges that the State Department "suffers from a split personality so far as Vichy is concerned". The Philadelphia Record continues its campaign for the seizure of Martinique and the recognition of Free France -- now. Although a number of other editorial pages assail Laval's policy, the subject, during the past week, has been subordinated to more dramatic war events. Labor Dan Tobin's pledge that the Brotherhood of Teamsters and Chauffeurs will work for the defeat of obstructionist Congressmen may open the way for a new alignment among labor leaders. Although Tobin attacked Philip Murray recently for his rejection of the AFL rapprochement proposal, he holds the same attitude in regard to the November elections as the CIO chief. An effort to bring these two men together might lead to the formation of a labor political committee to defeat Congressmen who inhibit the effective prosecution of the war. Some local CIO and AFL units have already joined hands for this purpose. - 6 - Gasoline When asked in the middle of June, "Do you think gasoline rationing throughout the nation is necessary?" a national cross-section divided as follows: in the rationed areas, 47 per cent said "Yes", 37 per cent "No", the highest approval coming from people who do not own cars. In the rest of the country, 25 per cent said "Yes", 59 per cent said "No". Rubber Three car owners out of ten in the rationed areas said, when inter- viewed in June, that they expected to be able to buy tires without restriction in less than three years. Fifty-six per cent expected that "a substitute for regular rubber will be found so that everyone will be able to get some kind of tires when their present ones wear out". The respondents were asked if they thought gasoline rationing the best way to save tires. Answers: 62 per cent "Yes"; 28 per cent "No"; 10 per cent no opinion. The rubber collection drive continues to receive editorial support. Discussion of gasoline and rubber rationing diminished markedly; the nature of the comment indicates the subject is àliding out of sight, at least for the time being. Car Pooling Fewer cars are on the road in most parts of the country where rationing is in effect. But these cars carry an average of only 1.8 passengers - almost exactly the same as the figure recorded by the Traffic Audit Bureau two months ago. Car pooling does not seem to be making much headway. Odell Waller The Negro press, aided by a number of liberal whites, has made a cause celebre of the Odell Waller case. A good many prominent and conservative dailies, - 7 - such as the Herald Tribune in New York and the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia, have urged that Waller's life be saved. They point to the interna- tional implications of his case, suggesting that his execution will create doubts respecting white justice in the minds of colored races all over the earth. Governor Darden of Virginia has granted two stays of execution, the second of which expires on July 2. Execution of Waller would almost certainly produce a storm of protest in the Negro press and a sense of real bitterness among Negroes throughout the United States. Congress There has been an extremely widespread wave of editorial criticism directed at Congress as a body. The general charge most commonly leveled is that the legislative branch of the Government continues to engage in "politics as usual" without full awareness of the war. Editorial discontent against Congress as a whole became pronounced with the quickly rescinded congressional pension plan. More recently it was expressed with renewed vigor over the granting of unlimited gasoline ration cards to Congres: men. During the past week the criticism has centered round congressional failure to enact a satisfactory tax bill. Congressional sniping at Leon Henderson and the conflict between the Truman Committee and the House Military Affairs Committee respecting dollar-a-year men have added to editorial ire. The attacks on Congress have not been directed at it as an institution. Nevertheless, the criticism has been so general that it may, if continued, tend to undermine popular confidence in representative government. - 8 - ENEMY ALIEN MINORITIES SUMMARY Native-born Americans in five eastern seaboard cities show considerable distrust of their German-American and Italian-American populations. Although they are most suspicious of those who are still aliens, large numbers of people express doubts as to the loyalty of naturalized United States c itizens from enemy countries and even of second generation citizens of German and Italian descent. Gernan-Americans are regarded as far more dangerous than Italian- Americans. Four in ten of those interviewed feel that few or no German aliens are loyal to this country. Only two in ten have similar misgivings about Italian aliens. Nevertheless, perhaps because of the belief that any differentiation would be unjust, three out of four people favor identical treatment of the two groups. In general, people advocate measures for handling enemy aliens which might be described as lenient. About half of those interviewed are opposed to any general restrictions. They feel that aliens should be treated as individuals and made subject to special regulations only when there is reason to suspect their individual loyalty. Investigations conducted among enemy alien groups show the fears that they harbor disloyal elements to be well founded. Many of the leaders of Italian-American communities were indoctrinated with Fascism during the pre-war years. Although they proclaimed their patriotism once America became involved in the war, their loyalty cannot be depended upon. Upwards of ten per cent of all German-American residents of America must be regarded as actively disloyal. Another large group is so luke-warm in its attachment to the United States that it might give the Hazi cause what aid it could if it appeared that an Axis victory was imminent. These disloyal elements constitute minorities. The vast majority of Italian-Americans view the war with divided emotions. Although they feel a sentimental attachment to the mother country, their primary allegiance is un- questionably to the United States. A very large group of German-Americans are also in conflict about the outcome of the war. Although they have strong sympathy for Germany, they would not want to see America defeated and may be trusted not to engage in subversive activity. Among these enemy alien groups with divided identification, there are many possibilities for constructive efforts to improve morale. - 9 - ENEMY ALIEN MINORITIES Governmental policy toward enemy aliens seeks the maximum degree of liberality consistent with security. To frame such a policy it is desirable to have facts both about public attitudes toward alien groups and the attitudes and situation of the groups themselves. To secure the facts, the Bureau of Intelligence interviewed native-born Americans in five eastern seaboard cities - Boston, New Haven, Newark, New York and Philadelphia. In addition, it conducted a special investigation of senti- ment among Italian-Americans and German-Americans in four of these same cities. Attitudes Toward Enemy Aliens The native Americans feel that most of the danger of fifth column activity in America comes from enemy aliens, rather than from naturalized citizens of Axis countries or the children of German and Italian immigrants. Opinion divides as follows respecting the loyalty of these groups: Naturalized Second Aliens U.S. citizens generation GERMANS All or most are loyal 22% 58% 76% About half are loyal 23 25 14 Few or none are loyal 43 11 5 Not ascertainable 12 6 5 ITALIANS All or most are loyal 47% 73% 86% About half are loyal 25 16 8 Few or none are loyal 19 6 2 Not ascertainable 9 5 4 - 10 - The greater distrust felt for Germans may reflect not only misgivings about German nationals in the United States, but also the belief that Germany herself is a powerful, tricky and dangerous enemy. The sensational arrest this last week of submarine-landed saboteurs, who may have been sheltered by Germans here, will probably reinforce existing distrust. Sixty-two per cent of those interviewed in the five seaboard cities feel that there are enough disloyal German aliens in the United States to threaten the security of the nation. Thirty-eight per cent think disloyalty among Italians sufficiently widespread to be a danger. Treatment of Aliens The chart on the opposite page shows the range of opinion on the treat- ment of German and Italian aliens. Despite the fact that people are far more suspicious of German aliens than of Italian aliens, they tend to feel that the two groups should be treated more or less alike. Possibly in the belief that any other course would be unfair, three people out of four maintain that German and Italian aliens should be treated in exactly the same way. Only two in ten recom- mend harsher treatment for the Germans - far less than the percentage which re- gards them as the more dangerous group. Six out of ten of those interviewed feel that the Government has not been strict enough thus far in its treatment of German aliens, and four in ten feel that it has not been strict enough with Italians. But to many respondents stricter treatment simply means a closer watch on alien activities. Only a fourth of those who complain favors internment of enemy aliens. Another fourth believes that enemy aliens should have to report to the police and should be barred from jobs or places where they might be dangerous. The remainder of the group has a very mild notion of what stricter treatment entails. HOW PEOPLE FEEL ABOUT ALIENS IN FIVE SEABOARD CITIES German Italian LOYALTY all or most 22% are loyal 47% about half 23% are loyal 25% only a few or 43% none are loyal 19% TREATMENT * treat 43% leniently 55% bar where 18% dangerous 14% have report to police bar 21% where dangerous 17% ** move where they 17% can be watched 12% leave them alone" and "just watch them and treat as individual cases". ***on this item there are wide variations by cities. FOREIGN LANGUAGE NEWSPAPERS stop publication of all of them 27% allow only those of proven loyalty to 53% be published allow all of them to be published 13% - 11 - The press, as well as the public, appears in general to be well satis- fied with the way the Government has handled the enemy alien problem. What little discussion has been devoted to the situation has been, on the whole, calm and constructive. Demand for more drastic control of enemy aliens in a few papers has been balanced by agitation in others for releasing loyal aliens and anti- Fascist refugees from present restrictions. Newspaper comment on the handling of the evacuation of Japanese from the Pacific coast has been laudatory. Foreign Language Communications Should German and Italian language newspapers in America be permitted to continue publication during the war? Respondents in the five east coast cities divided as follows on this question: Stop publication of all of them 27% Allow only those of proven loyalty to be published 53 Allow all of them to continue publication 13 Not ascertainable 7 Respondents were divided almost fifty-fifty AM the question of whether German and Italian broadcasts over American radio stations should be continued. It is possible that many of those who favored such broadcasts believed that Government control of the radio is now sufficiently strict to preclude any danger. With regard to the suppression of foreign language newspapers and radio broadcasts the better educated group tended to be more liberal in its attitude than the less well educated group. Limitations of the Data People's views on the trustworthiness and treatment of enemy aliens are demonstrably influenced by some considerations of dubious validity. People of German descent are most prone to think that Germans are loyal; people of Italian - 12 - descent are most willing to take for granted the loyalty of Italians. Similarly, it-was found that people's views on the relative speed with which various alien groups become Americanized are significantly colored by the war and the fear they feel for Germans. In any case, governmental policy toward enemy aliens must be based pri- marily not upon the apprehension felt about them, but upon the extent to which they actually jeopardize the nation's security. The second phase of the Bureau of Intelligence investigation attempted to ascertain the attitudes of enemy aliens themselves. It was realized that many of them would not be willing to give informa- tion of value to strangers. Special methods were therefore employed. Inter- views were arranged - - often by a third party - with informants familiar with conditions and attitudes among the German-American and Italian-American groups. Those interviewed included educators, businessmen, social workers, labor union officials, politicians, officers of societies, and others. The material secured from these informants was supplemented by direct observation. Intervewers frequented German and Italian neighborhoods, attended meetings, eavesdropped, and struck up casual conversations. An attempt was made to discover both the attitudes of different groups of enemy aliens and the factors which explain those attitudes. The interviewers were of course not concerned with the attitudes or loyalties of individuals. The Italian-Americans There are approximately 700,000 Italian aliens in the United States. Most of them have resided here for more than twenty years. During the two decades preceding the war, many of the leaders of Italian communities in America began to accept Fascist ideology. - 13 - Their sentimental attachment for Italy was very skillfully exploited by Mussolini. Many Italian-Americans were treated to expensive trips back to the homeland. Quite naturally, they were grateful and impressed. On the other hand, Fascist ideology did not have much meaning for the rank- and-file Italian-Americans. They, too, felt a nostalgic attachment for the home- land. They unquestionably derived some satisfaction from Italy's early military successes. But they were at once too politically unsophisticated and too pre- occupied with their lives in America to have any deep interest in political developments in Italy. The failure of many of them to become citizens was not an indication either of an indissoluble attachment to Italy or a reluctance to acquire American citizenship. Most Italian immigrants were uneducated, village-minded people to whom citizenship status meant little. Before the war most Italian-Americans cherished both their attachment for the mother country and their loyalty for America. After all, the two were not incompatible. America and Italy were friendly countries and former allies. Sympathy for Italy caused many Italians to come to their homeland's defense when her course in international affairs was criticized and the courage of her sons was questioned. It forced many Italian-Americans into the isolationist camp. But it did not lessen their loyalty to America. To the last minute most Italian- Americans hoped against hope that there would not have to be a show-down between their mother country and their adopted land. Impact of the War When war came Italian-Americans were stunned and confused. The conflict between their attachment to Italy and America was exposed and sharpened. Their - 14 - ambíguous status was brought home to them by external events as well as by internal stress. They were forced to register as enemy aliens. Certain indi- viduals were picked up and interned, and rumors of general evacuation began to be heard. The tension felt during those early days of the war has now largely dis- appeared. Italian-Americans are aware of the danger of trouble if anything occurs to arouse public suspicion or antagonism, but the fear of general evacuation has largely subsided. Many of those originally picked up by the FBI have been re- leased, and the group sees that it is not regarded as dangerous. Nevertheless, the position of Italian-Americans is anything but com- fortable. Their basic conflict remains unresolved. They are being pulled in different directions both by their own sympathies and the situation in which they find themselves. Employment discrimination is arousing a great deal of resentment. Italians have felt its disadvantages for a long time, and the situation has been exaggerated since the war. Either because of misunderstanding of govern- ment regulations or employer bias, a number of Italian-Americans have been fired, in some cases from positions they have held for many years. Many others have been denied jobs because of these factors and the large amount of paper work entailed in the hiring of aliens. These cases have been largely offset, statistically, by the increase in general employment, but they have received widespread publicity. They have aroused bitterness and a feeling among those loyal to the United States of being left out of the war effort. The attitude of their leaders has done little to improve their morale. For a short time after Pearl Harbor, it is true, these leaders made an abrupt about-face and gave their support to the war effort. Prominent Italian-Americans - 15 - became conspicuous purchasers of War Bonds, and flocked into defense work.. The Italian-language press and radio abandoned its championship of the Axis cause, and loudly proclaimed its patriotism. But the Italian elite now feel more secure, and their temporary fervor for the war effort has noticeably diminished. Although still firmly opposed to Japan and in favor of the purchase of War Bonds, they say little about America's enemies in Europe. In general their line encourages apathy, if not actual op- position to the war effort. They emphasize employment discrimination against Italians, blame the war on the Jews, and frequently snipe at the British. The position of the Roman Catholic Church, which at Easter-time emphasized the Pope's condemnation of the war, has strengthened the hand of those Italian leaders who refrain from supporting, where they do not openly oppose, the war effort. Such influences are strongly reflected in the attitudes of the rank and file. Fortunately, these influences are counterbalanced by a number of other 5 factors. Among the less privileged Italian groups, notably in the ranks of labor, there are many militant anti-Fascists who are doing all they can to arouse enthus- 1asm for the war effort. Among Italian-Americans generally there is growing doubt about Mussolini and his regime. The alliance with Germany was never popular, and Nazi control of Italy arouses widespread rancor. The smug superiority Germans manifest toward Italians in this country is bitterly resented. Perhaps the most potent factor in quickening the patriotism of the group is the large number of young men of Italian descent in America's armed forces. The families and friends of these men find it hard not to support the cause for which their loved ones are bearing arms and risking their lives. And the equali- tarian treatment accorded these men in the Army and Navy has made a strong in- pression on a group which has long been subjected to discrimination. - 16 - The German-Americans There are 315,000 German-born immigrants in the United States. Most of them on the eastern seaboard are concentrated in New York and Philadelphia. The exact extent to which this group was indoctrinated with Nazi ideology before the war is unknown. But it is a matter of public record that the German- American Bund had some 20,000 members; that uniformed storm troopers marched through the streets of Yorkville and other German communities; that many German- American publications became vigorous advocates of Fascism; and that even such a widely respected organization as the Steuben Society entertained guests from the Third Reich. The sympathy for Nazi Germany so sedulously cultivated during the pre- ceding decade did not disappear when America became involved in the war. A con- siderable group of German-Americans wholeheartedly desire a Nazi victory over the United States. It is estimated that this disloyal group embraces not less than ten per cent of all people of German birth living in this country. Nazi sympathizers are not clustered in any one socio-economic group. The Third Reich made a particular effort to reach working class Germans in this country with its propaganda. Recent immigrants who arrived just before or during the great depression of the '30's have been particularly susceptible to the lure of the "New Order". After the outbreak of war the more vociferous exponents of Nazism were interned and the frankly pro-Nazi papers were suppressed. But the vast majority of Nazi sympathizers are still at large, because it is impossible to prove their disloyalty. Their activity has been driven underground. It may or may not in- volve active attempts to thwart America's war effort, depending upon opportunities and circumstances. But the enmity of this group is certain. - 17 - Other German-American Groups There is another group of German-Americans almost as dangerous as the avowed Nazi sympathizers. The members of this group have not joined the Bund or committed themselves fully to the Nazi cause, but their sympathy for the United States is highly dubious. These aliens are opportunists, ready to leap on the Mitler bandwagon - perhaps even give the Nazi cause active aid - if it appears that the Axis is going to win the war. A third group of German-Americans is basibally loyal to America, but has the kind of divided identification characteristic of the Italian rank-and-file. Torn between two feelings, they "go along" with the war effort, but can muster no enthusiasm for it. They reject as lies the less palatable facts about the New Order. They are unable to repress a certain feeling of pleasure at Germany's strength. They are as anti-Semitic and anti-British as Hitler could desire. They hope Germany will not suffer a humiliating defeat. Yet they do not want America to lose the war. mother group - the size of which is impossible to estimate - unreser- vedly supports America's war effort. A large proportion of these loyal German- Americans are members of the labor unions and socialist societies which have thrived in German communities for many years. Also loyal to America, but distinct enough to be regarded as a separate group, are most of the German refugees who have come to this country since 1933. They are bitterly anti-Nazi, yet feel some degree of disgruntlement precisely because their opposition to Nazism has not received sufficient recognition. They resent being classified as enemy aliens. But their complaints spring from the nation's failure to recognize them as friends and to utilize their services, not from lack of sympathy for the American cause. - 18 - - Predominant Reaction Among German-Americans of all shades of opinion there is a considerable degree of apprehension. They are afraid, not so much of evacuation, as of mis- treatment and persecution at the hands of the non-German population of their own localities. Many of them remember the way Germans were treated here during the first World War, and they are well aware of the hatred most Americans feel for Nazi Germany. Their fear expresses itself characteristically in social withdrawal. German-Americans are keeping quiet and trying in every way to make themselves inconspicuous. They are staying away from German establishments and German organizations. They are careful about reading German language newspapers in the subway and about speaking the mother tongue in non-German districts. Little has been done by the government, the press, or the public to heighten this feeling of apprehension. Some Germans, it is true - including citizens of German descent as well as aliens - have been discharged from jobs since the outbreak of the war; and these dismissals have been all the more bit- terly resented because Germans, unlike Italians, have not been inured to employ- ment discrimination. But German-Americans have benefitted, like everyone else, from the high rate of general employment, and they have experienced a minimum of mistreatment. CONCLUSIONS Certain Italian-Americans and a far larger number of German-Americans are so thoroughly in sympathy with the cause and ideology of their homelands that they must be regarded as enemies of America. They constitute a security problem. To all appearances this problem is being well handled. - 19 - The vast majority of Italian-Americans and a substantial minority, if not an actual majority, of the German group are divided in their feelings about the war. In varying degrees they retain a sympathy for their homelands, but they also feel devoted to the country where they and their children live and work. Their own fortunes are linked to some extent to the fate of America. Many of their children are in its armed forces -- a factor which is singularly potent in bringing them into indentification with the American cause. These general statements about German-Americans and Italian-Americans should not obscure the important differences between the two groups - differences which are reflected in public attitudes toward them and which must be taken into account in the formulation of governmental policy. Both among the Italian and German groups, certain leaders and organizations are actively attempting to improve morale and to enlist more widespread participa- tion in the war effort. However, they have not received encouragement or financial support from any quarter. Little has been done, by the Government or any other agency, to resolve the conflict in which enemy aliens are drawn by the war - to strengthen their identification with the United States and to overcome the forces and propaganda pulling them in the opposite direction. This study points to the need for such a program. In addition to protecting itself from disloyal aliens, America must attempt to enlist the active support of those who can be made to realize that America's cause is their own. - 20 - Sources of the Survey This survey is based upon the following material - which is available to those who desire its "Enemy Alien Minorities in Eastern Cities", Division of Surveys, Special Report #13 "Attitudes toward the Problem of Enemy Aliens Along the East Coast", Extensive Surveys Division, Report #25 "Italian Aliens: Attitudes Towards the U. S. and Enemy Alien Status", report by Special Services Division Special Intelligence Report A46, Division of Information Channels "German and Italian Short-Wave Propaganda Intended for Germans and Italians in the United States", report by Source Materials Division. July 8, 1942 SURVEY OF INTELLIGENCE MATERIALS No. 31 Office of War Information Office of Facts and Figures Bureau of Intelligence OFFICE OF WAR INFORMAT ION OFFICE OF FACTS AND FIGURES WASHINGTON July 10, 1942 My dear Miss Tully: I am sending to you herewith & copy of the latest Survey of Intelligence Materials prepared for the Director of the Office of Facts and Figures. Sincerely yours, R. Assistant Director In Charge, Bireau of Intelligence Miss Grace Tully Secretary President of the United States The White House Washington, D.C. 1 DECLASSIFIED July 8, 1942 SURVEY OF INTELLIGENCE MATERIALS No. 31 Office of War Information Office of Facts and Figures Bureau of Intelligence SUIDARY Len and women join together in voluntary associations to promote their economic interests or to express ideational, cultural or racial points of view which they have in common. These associations afford channels through which their members enter into social relations and make the comunity as a whole responsive to their organized will. They are also channels through which the Government can reach their members in an atmosphere of intimacy and confidence. Businessmen have developed a variety of associations ranging from spokesman for major industrialists, such as the National Association of Manufacturers, the Iron and Steel Institute and the United States Chamber of Commerce, to heterogenous organizations of small businessnen and the thousands of trade associations representative of special commodity interests. In varying degrees, they employ the media of communication - newspapers, radio, moving pictures, billboards, pamphlets - to influence public opinion. In addition, they endeavor to promote legislation on behalf of their membership. Labor has developed three main associations for the articulation of its points of view - the American Fedoration of Labor, the Congross of Industrial Organizations and independent unions, including the Railway Brother- hoods. These organizations endeavor to influence legislation, choose candi- dates for office and inpress upon the public labor's interests. They exercise a powerful influence upon their members. Their sponsorship is indispensable in securing the full participation of workers in any national program. Farmers have similarly developed three organizations - the Farm Bureau Federation, the Farmers Union and the Grange. These, too, exert pressure upon legislative bodies and are imensely effective in nobilizing the opinion of their constituents. A wide range of service clubs, fraternal associations, ethnic and racial groups and women's organizations bring together cross sections of the national population for the advancement of common purposes. Because these bodies are of their members' own creation, under their collective management and made up of essentially like-minded people, they provide friendly channels through which the Government can effectively transmit information regarding its purposes and problems in the prosecution of the war. CONTENTS VOLUNTARY ASSOCIATIONS AND PUBLIC OPINION ...... page 1 Summary Introduction page 1 Economic Interest Groups page 2 Associations of Businessmen page 3 "3ig Business" page 3 "Small Business" page 5 Civic and Service Groups page 6 Professional Associations page 6 Associations of Workers page 7 Associations of Farmers page 8 Ideational, Cultural and Racial Interest Groups Groups page 10 Church Organizations page 10 Fraternal Associations page 11 Women's Organizations page 11 Power and Responsibility page 12 Conclusions page 13 CURRENT OPINION page 16 Editorial Attitudes page 16 Inflation page 16 Criticism of Congress page 16 Criticism of the President page 16 Developing Situations page 18 Aleutians page 18 Saboteurs page 18 Envy page 19 Feud page 19 China page 19 Aviation page 19 Megroes page 20 Estimates page 21 VOLUNTARY ASSOCIATIONS AND PUBLIC OPINION Introduction Men and women view events, not merely as individuals, but as church members, farmers, industrial workers, manufacturers, Rotarians, Negroes. Their reactions may be conditioned, in some measure, by geographical location. The nation has taken note of this consideration in its political organization. Even more largely, however, the conditioning factor is likely to be occupa- tional or economic interest. Even in their local affairs, individuals are likely to express themselves through clubs, groups, trade associations or one of the innumerable functional organizations with which they identify their interests. The totalitarians, mistaking uniformity for unity, suppress the special interests entirely. The normal organizations in which men join for the promotion of their interests are uprooted and destroyed. State- controlled bodies are substituted -- the first step which the Fascists took in both Germany and Italy. For it is through the elimination of these chan- nels of expression that the individual is most effectively submerged into the mass and subordinated to State. By contrast, in a society based upon the principles of freedom of association and expression, voluntary associations are the means by which men and women enter into social relations. They are instruments - 2 - of social and political order. Without them, the State is a remote and hostile power. With them, the State takes on the character of a community ceases to be an abstraction and is made responsive to the will of its organized and articulate members. It is a function of most voluntary associations to impress upon the community as a whole the will of their members. To this end, they exert pres- sure upon public opinion and upon the Government. Being of their members' own creation, made up of like-minded or similarly situated people, they constitute relatively homogeneous groups which are at once channels for the expression of their own desires and channels through which the Government can reach their con- stituents in a congenial and intimate atmosphere. It is important to note that the more extensive and enduring of these voluntary associations arise, not in response to synthetic or artificial stimu- lation, but in a felt need for communication among those having common or sympa- thetic interests. They afford indispensable avenues for any central information agency. If they did not already exist, it would be necessary to create them. Information reaching members through their sponsorship carries with it a validity and impact which cannot be achieved by any outside source. ECONOMIC INTEREST GROUPS The basic rivalry in American life is among conflicting economic interests, particularly between those which possess advantages and those which seek to gain them. There is a natural resistance to societal change on the part of those who benefit from established or moribund social patterns; they resent limitation of their privileges and do what they can to impede innovations. Conservers are forever wrestling with reformers. - 3 - The most highly developed organizations for the advancement of economic interests are found among the three major occupational divisions of the public - management, labor and agriculture. Each segment seeks to mobilize its own constituents and to influence the public as a whole for the promotion of its group advantage. Associations of Businessmen American business associations fall naturally into three divisions: organizations which are controlled by and speak for "big business"; the overall organization of the "small business" groups, together with those trade asso- ciations which are more typically composed of small businessmen; and those civic and service clubs concerned with community improvement in which the business point of view is dominant. Individual business firms thenselves, of course, directly influence the opinion of employees, stockholders and customers. "Big Business" The three foremost "big business" associations are the National Association of Manufacturers, the United States Chamber of Commerce and the Iron and Steel Institute. For the purposes of this report, the NAM has been chosen for analysis as representative of the means by which "big business" operates in the sphere of public relations. The NAM is an association of large manufacturers and refers to itself as "industry's spokesman". It claims a membership of 7,000, has an average annual revenue in excess of $1,000,000 and, in addition, secures free adver- tising worth several millions a year. With such resources, it is obviously a potent force in the formulation of popular attitudes. It has influenced them for the promotion of its own prestige, to persuade the public that its members perform valuable services to the community and to enhance their opportunities - 4 - in the pursuit of economic gain. The strength of the NAM is wholly disproportionate to the number of its members. This strength is derived from the prestige attendant upon finan- cial success and from the avenues of communication which prestige and money make available to it. The propaganda of the NAM defends civil, economic and political freedom. Not unnaturally, in discussing these freedoms, it places its primary emphasis upon the preservation of "private enterprise in a free society". And it defines freedom of private enterprise as "freedom to choose one's occupation freedom to profit freedom to buy freedom of enterprise to supply what the people want, to compete for the people's choice". The ideas which the association supports are disseminated, in part, through pamphlets which have an extremely widespread distribution, some of which are prepared for use in the public school system; through official publication of resolutions, committee studies, annual platforms and reprints of significant addresses by industrial leaders and others. Through its press service, it releases a great deal of material to more than one-quarter of the newspapers in the country. In addition to general press releases, the material distributed includes editorial cartoons, regular features such as "You and Your National Affairs", a daily column, "Popularizing Economics for the Masses" and a popular daily comic feature, "Uncle Abner Says". It is worth noting that the NAM editorials and cartoons are usually published without credit so that the public is unaware of the source of this material. In addition to these hand-outs, the NAM has purchased full-page newspaper advertisements to create community "harmony". In like fashion, the NAM has extensively utilized radio, motion pictures, - 5 - foreign language publications and has promoted numerous conferences, attended by educators and businessmen, dealing with the relation of business and education. It is apparent that, by these means, the public is getting an effectively disguised special pleading of the association's case for the maintenance of cor- porate control of our economic life. The efficient organization of its channels of communication, together with the prestige of its personnel and the extent of its financial resources, make it a formidable competitor of any public infor- mation agency. They also make it, if its cooperation can be enlisted, a potent channel for ideas and information about the war effort. "Small Business" Smaller businessmen express their points of view through a dozen or so national small business organizations and through some 8,000 trade associations representing the particular type of business in which they are engaged. The membership of some of these organizations is over 25,000, but most of them have fewer than 1,000 members. Most trade associations attempt to exert pressure by sponsoring or opposing legislation which affects the commodity interest which they represent. To some extent, they endeavor to publicize the points of view which they support; but their main effectiveness is in their relations with individual legislators and in the personal appearance of representatives before Congressional hearings; sometimes association members are induced to write or telegraph members of Congress on particular bills. The points of view on labor, statutory and tax matters of most of these organizations are closely allied. They all strive toward bigger and better business, freedom from Government regulation and the uninhibited increase of their respective business volumes. - 6 - Civic and Service Groups Businessmen are extremely prone to associate in civic or service organizations in addition to the bodies which directly and avowedly represent their specific business interests. Most of these groups have a local orientation. Chambers of Commerce, Rotary, Kiwanis, Optimists, Lions and other such bodies are concerned with promoting the development of the particular communities with which they are identified. But since their members are largely businessmen, they tend naturally to think of the advancement of the community in terms of business opportunities. The number and variety of these a ssociations is tremendous. Nationally, they are organized on an extremely loose basis; most of the local bodies are, for all practical purposes, autonomous, Since their members are in close relationship and sympathy with one another, ideas propagated under their sponsor- ship carry considerable weight. They are, therefore, especially effective vehicles for the promotion of programs in which participation on a local level is desired. Of a somewhat different nature are such national organizations as the American Legion and the Veberans of Foreign Wars. These, too, however, are composed largely of small businessmen or employees of business and carry on their main activities on a neighborhood plane. They grew out of special objectives consistent with the common experience of their members in the armed services, yet much of their activity is concerned with the promotion of a type of "Americanism" beneficial to business interests. Professional Associations Like businessmen, members of the several professions are wont to join hands in associations for the advancement of their particular callings. Lawyers, - 7 - doctors, teachers, newspaper publishers and editors, life insurance underwriters, dentists, architects and the whole range of arts and crafts maintain organizations which seek to enhance the prestige of their members and to affect public opinion in such a way as to improve their economic opportunity. The imprimatur of the best of such associations naturally carries considerable weight with their mem- bers. They are, therefore, extremely effective in mobilising the opinion of professional men in support of, or in opposition to, governmental programs. Associations of Workers Organised labor consists of three well-established and well-differentiated groups. They are the American Federation of Labor, the Congress of Industrial Organizations and the independent unions, including the Railway Brotherhoods. A fourth faction may be in the making if John L. Lewis succeeds in taking the United Mine Workers and other unions under his domination away from the CIO. Labor's basic unit is the local union which is the fundamental point of contact between labor and management. Each local unit sends a delegate or delegates to a periodic convention at which national officers are elected and national policies adopted. National or international officers hold a great deal of power, especially in the older unions. And this power is determined, in large measure, by the personal loyalty which leaders evoke from the rank and file. In this sense, the structure of a labor organisation is akin to that of & political machine. Union membership is influenced by its leadership through union, shop and committee meetings, as well as national conventions, through the labor press and through radio programs. The standard techniques of any pressure group are used by labor organizations in their efforts to influence legislative bodies. Resolutions are passed; members are urged to write to Congressmen; - 8 - delegates are sent to state and national capitals; union members sit on committees, attend hearings, prepare briefs and rally support from the general public. In essence, the strength of organized labor lies less in its influence upon public opinion, which has met with only partial success, than upon a pressure influence exerted directly upon the Government itself. What labor leaders lack in popular prestige, they compensate for by the number of votes which they are able to control. They exert immense influence over the millions of their members, and their sponsorship of Government purposes is consequently of inestimable value. For it is only through their endorsement that labor in general will espouse national causes or programs. Associations of Farmers Like labor, farmers have developed three mainassociations for the advancement of their economic interests: the American Farm Bureau Federation, the National Grange Order of the Patrons of Husbandry and the National Farmers Educational and Cooperative Union of America. The Farm Bureau is an organization of 475,000 middle to large farmers with its greatest strength in the corn and cotton belts. The membership doubtless includes many family-farm members, but the leadership is, and always has been, drawn from the industrial corporate, absentee-owner, farm management group. The Bureau's national activities are almost wholly concerned with pressure in Washington. The Farmers Union, by contrast, is a family organization dedicated to the interests of the family-farm and opposed to the corporate industrial farm. It has a membership of about 125,000 farm families of small to middle economic status. Like every farm organisation, it is dedicated to the preservation of farm prices at a high level; but it aims also to deal with the farm problem - 9 - through the development of cooperative buying, holding and marketing organ- isations. It is unique among farm groups in that it is not anti-labor but liberal in outlook, advocating cooperation between agricultural and industrial workers. The Grange, although the oldest of the three farm associations, is less influential nationally than either of the other two. It has its principal strength in New England and the Middle Atlantic states and differs from the others in that it includes professional men and educators in its membership and is a lodge with a secret ritual. It comprises about 800,000 members. In policy, it is somewhat closer to the Farm Bureau than to the Farmers Union. None of the farm organizations can claim to be wholly representative of agricultural interests. There are at least 16,000,000 farmers in the United States, of whom about 2,000,000 are organized in farm associations. Nevertheless, the nationally circulated newspapers and magazines which each of the farm bodies publishes are important influences exerted upon the minds of rural people. Even larger numbers of farm people are members of groups organized in connection with one or another of the programs sponsored by the United States Department of Agriculture. To a considerable extent these groups are'already being used as channels for reaching farm people. The editors and publishers of privately owned farm papers and magazines are in active accord with most of the work and objectives of one or more of the national farm groups. Subscribers to the farm press are urged to identify themselves with some growing farm organization in order to increase their in- fluence on the country at large. The farm groups, like labor organizations, make their influence felt more through the exertion of pressure, backed by voting strength, on legislators - 10 - than through the formulation of public opinion. Their sponsorship, like the sponsorship of labor unions, is invaluable in enlisting the participation of members in any national endeavor. IDEATIONAL, CULTURAL AND RACIAL INTEREST GROUPS Men and women tend to associate with one another for the furtherance of other than economic aims. They have objectives and enthusiasms which sometimes cross occupational lines and bring together an assortment of persons from several of the economic interest groups. Church Organizations The most widely embrasive of all these forms of association is the church. Total church membership of religious bodies within the continental United States is 65,000,000 individuals distributed among 244,319 local churches. Over 52,000,000 members are 13 years of age or over; of these, 33,000,000 are Protestants, 15,000,000 Roman Catholic and 3,300,000 belong to Jewish congrega- tions. Leadership is provided by 150,000 professional religious men, clergy- men, priests and rabbis, aided by several tens of thousands of lay-people who cooperate with them in church, community and educational work. The churches of America have rejected pacifism, but they have not yet accepted war. Among the leaders of Protestant sects, there is a strong feeling that supporting the war effort in 1917 led to a decline of the prestige and spiritual leadership of the churches. Today they are reluctant to support the war effort actively, although they endorse the democratic principles for which the nation is fighting. The attitude of Roman Catholic leaders has been conditioned, in con- siderable part, by the uncompromising hatred of the church for Communism. - 11 - Since the hierarchy in the United States takes its direction from the Vatican, and since Pope Pius XII has placed more emphasis upon the desirability of peace than upon the defeat of Fascism, American Roman Catholics are not fully mobilized, as such, in support of the national cause. The church, together with allied associations concerned with the spiritual interests of men and women, is potentially an imiensely powerful instrument in conditioning their attitudes toward the war. Fraternal Associations Fraternal associations bring together men of varied occupational back- grounds in an atmosphere which makes them e specially receptive to the ideas their organizations sponsor. This is equally true of organizations formed to protect the interests of ethnic minorities. In these bodies, men are tied to- gether by close bonds of common experience, as well as common interest. Women's Organizations There is a type of voluntary association, long conspicuous in American life, which has a mass membership, supports its central office by the payment of dues, emphasises high ethical standards and protects the established family, economic and religious patterns of middle-class American life. In this category may be placed the dominant organizations with female membership - the American Federation of Women's Clubs, which has a membership of 2,000,000 in 16,000 locals; the National Congress of Parents and Teachers, also comprising some 2,000,000 members in 16,000 locals; the American Association of University Women, with a membership of 71,000 ex-college women in 915 local units; and the National League of Women Voters, with approximately 16,000 members in 597 local leagues in 33 states. The Association of University Women and the League of Women Voters have - 12 - memberships of upper middle-class background and often are of considerable in- fluence in local community life. They provide mechanisms for reaching women of education and philosophical outlook who are capable of exerting important influence upon the people around them. The Federation of Women's Clubs and the Parent- Teacher Associations embrace rural, as well as urban, chapters, and have members ranging from upper class down to lower middle-class status. They are instruments for the influencing of membership opinion, rather than representatives of special interest groups. POWER AND RESPONSIBILITY The voluntary association, as has been pointed out before, exercise an important influence upon public affairs and public opinion in the United States. They have been referred toas democratic instruments. It is essential to note, however, that in certain respects they operate in an altogether un- democratic fashion. It is only through the organization of counter-pressure that the power of certain of the economic interest groups is kept within reasonable bounds. These groups are subject to no formal control by the Government. The resources which they command and the means they employ are not regulated by law. Their pressure is exerted often in ways which are inimical to the general public welfare. In many cases, moreover, the activities of pressure groups are deter- mined by a few individuals without democratic control by the membership. The National Association of Manufacturers, for example, is largely financed and governed by a small group of powerful corporations. In the period from 1933 to 1937, the latest years for which accurate figures are available, there was a progressive concentration of financial backing and leadership on the part of a few companies representing approximately five por cent of the membership - 13 - Through their guidance of the policies of the NAM and its affiliated network of employers' associations in the National Industrial Council, this coterie of powerful interests organized the strategy for a national program of resistance to unions and to governmental action on behalf of labor. The labor unions, on the other hand, have their policies similarly determined by a few dominant leaders whose conduct is only nominally subject to approval or rejection by the rank and file. The United Mine Workers of America, for example, is under the autocratic control of John L. Lewis, who has summarily purged the organization of leaders sympathetic to the administration and the war effort. Lewis controls abundant financial resources and a host of tough experienced organizers loyal to him personally. His domination of the union can be challenged only by a bitter and difficult campaign among union members. The largest farmer organizations are also under oligarchical direction. The Farm Bureau's national policies, for instance, are made almost wholly by the executives and are presented to the membership only at annual meetings and under steam roller pressure. In all of these organizations, the possible development of demagogic leadership represents a real danger. While the preservation of their freedom is an essential of democracy, it is vitally necessary for them to temper their power with responsibility and to assure the regulation of their leaders by their members. CONCLUSIONS The associations in which men and women have voluntarily banded afford the best possible means for any program of adult education. Through these - 14 - organizations, it is possible to explain Government programs in personal face-to-face communication. Most important of all, the explanation can come from men and women known to one another and identified by common interests. All over the United States, there are tens of thousands of meetings held by groups at the community level possible of utilization as class rooms in which the problems of the war and the significance of current events can be discussed in an atmosphere of intimacy and confidence. While the importance of the media of mass communication - press, radio and motion pictures - is tremendous in promoting an awareness of current problems, the full understanding of these problems can be achieved only by painstaking education at the grass roots. Voluntary associations constitute an invaluable vehicle, in particular, for information programs concerned with long-range purposes. Because of their staggered meeting schedules, the unevenness of attendance and the variations in the quality of local leadership, time and patience are required in employing them. Above all, it is necessary to adjust programs to the particular associa- tions which are to be utilized. Standard approaches will not suffice. It is in the spelling out and amplification of informational themes such as those outlined by the Office of Facts and Figures that the voluntary organizations can be especially useful. Better than any mass media, they can tell their own members about the magnitude of the job confronting us, about the nature of the enemy, about the United Nations concept and the post-war world. Similarly, they are indispensable for the painstaking education in elementary economics requisite to an understanding of the President's seven- point economic program and the complex interrelationships involved in it. Finally, these voluntary associations provide the most effective - 15 - instruments for bringing men and women into direct participation in the war effort. The publications of all these associations can be utilized to reach their members. Material for their use must be prepared, of course, in terms of the group interest which they represent. Suggested participation in national programs should be designed for the interest, capacity and educational level of the specified groups. Although the Office of Civilian Defense has successfully mobilized some voluntary organizations in numerous war activities, there has as yet been no comprehensive program for the enlistment of then in major informational efforts. Such a recruitment needs to be undertaken by the Office of War Information on a thorough and carefully planned basis. These associations offer an avenue for reaching people of all backgrounds and points of view under auspices that are favorable to maximum acceptance of national appeals. - 16 - CURRENT OPINION Editorial Attitudes Inflation Inflation has become a major theme in editorial minds. Reverses on the fighting fronts abroad are frequently followed by attacks on the Adminis- tration's conduct of the war effort at home. The commentators have turned during the past week from the unhappy battlefields in Russia and North Africa to economic problems on the domestic front. In part, their criticism seems to spring from frustration and general hostility to labor and to the domestic policies of the New Deal. Much of it is defeatist in tone, suggesting that economic disaster is virtually inevitable under the present Administration. But it reflects also some sense of real alarm. Editorial anger appears to be divided fairly evenly between the Congress and the Administration. Criticism of Congress The editorial assault on Congress is directed primarily toward the farm bloc in the House because of its refusal, to permit the sale of Government- owned grain at a price below parity. Eastern metropolitan newspapers are, of course, particularly vehement in their condemnation of this obduracy on the part of midwestern representatives. But the prevailing feeling in other segments of the press, as well as among radio commentators, is that Congress as a whole has been playing politics at the expense of the war effort. Congressional action in regard to the tax program is viewed with almost equal dissatisfaction by most commentators. They are by no means in agreement among themselves as to the kind of fiscal program which should be adopted. A - 17 - majority are out of sympathy with the Treasury Department's tax proposals: they desire a general sales levy or a broadening of the income tax base. Most of them are vehement in their opposition to mandatory joint returns and treat the Presi- dent's proposal of the $25,000 limitation on income as mere political tomfoolery. Most of them, however, do desire far heavier taxation than the House Ways and Means Committee seems disposed to endorse. And they desire it, regardless of other economic considerations, as a means of closing the inflationary gap. Criticiam of the President The Administration, however, also comes in for a large share of blame from commentators in the newspapers and on the air. For the critics, in general, find a rising wage level even more terrifying than rising farm prices. They re- gard wages as a cost of production and as the inevitable driving force of an in- flationary spiral. A Scripps-Howard editorial expresses the prevailing view. It praises the President for his fight against the farm bloc, then goes on to say that "the chief reason for his lack of success, we think, is that he has not fought with equal vigor on the labor front to stabilize wages. He has said that stable wages are as necessary to the prevention of inflation as stable food prices, but he has stopped there". Almost all commentators express vigorous opposition to the recommenda- tion of the War Labor Board panel that workers in the four Little Steel companies should receive a wage increase of a dollar a day. The general reasoning is that the increase would be a signal for general requests from all unions for pay increases, that the effect would necessarily be inflationary, that the cost would be borne by the Government and the taxpayers and that the step would be a violation of the economic program which the President himself enunciated, - 18 - Fulton Lewis, Jr., Mutual Broadcasting System news commentator, observed that "if the WLS follows the same line of thought.... followed by the three members on this special investigating board, the President's wage stabilization policy will land pretty close to the scrap pile". The St. Louis Post-Dispatch summed it up as follows: "Here, in the Little Steel case, is not a simple example of a rich and grasping employer as against deserving workers. It is a test case to decide whether the Administration's campaign against inflation is going to be broken down through specious reasoning and mistaken action". Out of their dissatisfaction with the Administration's economic policies, press and radio are endeavoring to promote large scale public protest. But the fear of inflation which they are engendering by their comment may have inflationary repercussions of a character more dangerous than any measures which the Government may take or fail to take. DEVELOPING SITUATIONS Aleutians There is continued editorial clamor regarding the presence of Japanese in the Aleutians. Western newspapers, in particular, are vehement in an insistence that the invaders be driven out forthwith. Some newspapers, notably the Scripps- Howard chain, utilize the situation as an argument in support of their contention that American strength should be concentrated now against the Japanese. Saboteurs Virtually all commentators insist on a summary death penalty for the eight Nazi saboteurs captured last week by the F3I. The Portland Oregonian, in a typical - 19 - comment, warns against "leniency toward men who came to this country on missions of wholesale murder. The Nazis had best know that, tried far enough, we are capable of answering in kind". Envy Interviewing conducted by the Bureau of Intelligence reveals that a con- siderable number of people in both rural and urban areas are envious of war industry workers, feeling that they are proffting unduly from the war emergency. The war workers themselves resent the feeling bitterly. A dangerous cleavage might develop from this antipathy. Feud The newest development in the Lewis-Murray feud: it is reported that Lewis is conducting a campaign among the priests in steel towns to convince them that Murray is a Communist. China Press and radio celebrated the fifth anniversary of China's resistance to Japan with a number of glowing tributes to the heroism of the Chinese people. Radio commentators were especially warm in their praise. The accent, however, appears to be on China's desperate need of allied assistance, rather than upon the importance of China to the United Nations. Aviation Most newspapers have been celebrating the demise of the battleship. There is now an unrestrained enthusiasm for the effectiveness of air power in modern war- fare. About half the press seems alréady convinced that aircraft carriers have been outmoded by land-based planes. The Navy is usually danned by faint praise for belatedly recognizing the value of the airplane. - 20 - Negroes The execution of Odell Waller appears to have precipitated a partially submerged rancor among colored people. Their sense of injustice is currently being fanned by inflammatory comments in the Negro newspapers and bitterly in- dignant speeches by Negro leaders. There was extreme resentment among a delegation of Negro leaders repre- sentative of the NAACP, the Workers Defense League and the March-On-Washington, Committee who were unsuccessful in an endeavor to see the President and persuade him to commute Odell Waller's death sentence. Something of the indignation to which Negroes are being stirred by their own leaders can be gauged from an address delivered by A. Philip Randolph at the second of the series of mass meetings staged by the March-On-Washington movement. This took place at the Coliseum in Chicago on June 27 - prior to the Waller execution - and was attended by an audience variously estimated at 12,000, 15,000 and even 20,000. Randolph pointed an accusing finger at the federal Government as the chief offender in exercising Jim Crow tactics. He called attention to the fact, that after the last war, when the Negro leadership decided to "close ranks and forget their grievances" for the duration, the Government took them at their word and forgot their grievances for good. "We are resolved that we shall not make that blunder again", he said, "We are fighting to kill Jim Crow now during the war. We don't propose to wait until the war ends If the President does not issue a war proclamation to abolish Jim Crow in Washington and all Government departments and the armed forces, Negroes are going to march and we don't give a damn what happens It is better that Negroes face extermination than a life of segre- cation with degradation and bitter humiliation. Rather we die standing on our feet fighting for our rights than to exist upon our knees begging for our life". - 21 - The March-On-Washington Committee appears to remain a powerful pressure group. There is genuine danger that its leaders may be unable to keep under reasonable control the anger and indignation they have stimulated. Estimates From time to time, the Bureau of Intelligence has asked national samples the following question: "About how much longer do you think the war will last?" The chart below illustrates the trend of opinion on this score. It reveals an instability which can scarcely be considered a component of healthy morale. People tend to think that the war will be over in a relatively short time when news from the fighting fronts is good, but they reverse this opinion sharply as soon as they learn of defeats in battle. POPULAR EXPECTATIONS % OF THE WAR'S LENGTH 60 war. will "The lost 40 ONLY LIDUE years 20 Feb. 16- Fall of Singapore June -RAF roid on June 6-Battle Cologne of Midway June 21-Fall of Tobruk o JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE