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PRESIDENT'S SECRETARY'S FILE
Subject File
War Production Board:"War
Progress" :1/8-3/19/43
Box 172
8
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
CRITICAL COMPONENTS - BIG JOB FOR 1943
THIS YEAR'S big production job is to
grand total above 200. And this list
schedule critical components--to see
is only the beginning (bearings, for
that engine parts, boilers, gears,
example, will eventually break down
etc. synchronize with demand. Al-
into 43 subclasses, machine toolsper-
ready the list of these products com-
haps 150); the Navy has just submitted
prises 70 items, and it doesn't in-
about 30 additional components and
clude subclasses (individual engine
most of these are slated for the "must"
accessories, different compressor
program. But they are not included
sizes, etc.), which would bring the
in the critical list which follows:
Aluminum forgings
Housings (3"x5")
Amplidynes & selsyns
Hydraulic motors
Automatic pilots (naval aircraft)
Hydraulic generators & parts
Auxiliary turbines
Industrial power trucks
Axles (naval aircraft)
Industrial pumps
Axle shafts (automotive)
Inflation cylinders
Ball & roller bearings
Jewel bearings
Blowers & fans
King pins (automotive)
Boilers
Lenses
Cables (firing & lighting circuits)
Locomotives
Capacitors (power & fixed types)
Machine tools & industrial equipment
Carbon dioxide extinguishers
Main propulsion turbines (ships)
Chain (3/4" & larger)
Mechanical speed changers
Communication equipment
Metalographic equipment
Compressors & vacuum pumps
Naval torpedoes
Control instruments
Oleo struts
Conveying equipment
Oxygen equipment
Cranes &\shovels
Parker-type fittings
Crankshafts
Plumbing fixture trim
Diesel engines
Propellers
Elec. motors, generators & starters
Steam engines
Electronics
Stop nuts
Engine accessories
Switch gear
Fire control instruments
Tractors (track laying)
Flashlights
Turbo-blowers & exhausters
Fuses (MK-28)
Turnbuckles
Galvanized mess equipment
Underwater sound equipment
Gas cylinders
Unit heaters
Gasoline engines (except aircraft)
Universal joints (automotive)
Gears
Valves & fittings (ships)
Gyro compasses
Water pump shafts (automotive)
Hand tools
Welding rods & electrodes
Heat exchangers
Wire rope (3/4" & smaller)
FEBRUARY 12, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL 13
(chart, right). In merchant yards,
the hard core of steady, so-called per-
manent workers is reduced proportion-
CONTRAST IN AWOL-ISM
ately to the newcomers, who are beset
Leave-taking seems to increase
by all the petty problems of learning
as employment expands.
the ropes of a new city: They must find
Employment in merchant shipyards
housing; they must become acquainted
has risen 77% since April; in naval
with shopping centers; they must learn
shipyards, only 48%.
200
200
about transportation (often the travel
EMPLOYMENT
time to and from work runs to three hours
APRIL 1942 100
175
or more per day).
Merchant Shipyords
175
NOT USED TO THE GRIND
150
APRIL 1942 100
150
In all war plants where there is a
Navol Shipyords
tremendous influx of new recruits to the
125
125
labor market--many of them women-the
same and other factors are at work. Here
100
100
A
M
J
J
A
S
0
N
D
you have a group which has not been em-
ployed sufficiently long to develop day-
in, day-out attendance habits. They have
And absenteeism has remained
not become accustomed to the daily grind.
fairly steady in naval shipyards,
And since the danger of losing jobs has
ABSENCES AS % OF SCHEDULED WORK WEEK
has risen sharply in merchant yards.
10
10
been minimized by the high demand for
ABSENTEEISM
labor, when the spirit moves them, they
8
8
Merchant Shipyords
take off--frequently to look for other
6
jobs.
Noval Shipyards
6
To meet the problems of absenteeism,
4
4
ABSENCES AS % OF SCHEDULED WORK WEEK
2
2
CREATING MAN- HOURS
O
0
A
M
J
J
A
S
0
N
D
BECAUSE OF absenteeism and labor
WAR PROGRESS
turnover, the Presidential order es-
tablishing a 48-hour work week means
numerous measures have been and are being
in actual practice a 46-hour week.
tried: keeping stores open at night,
But even on this basis the order will
trying to improve transportation facil-
create millions of man-hours. Trans-
ities (stagger shifts, for example);
lating November, 1942, man-hours into
maintaining restaurants at plants so
the employee equivalent, the order
that workers will have satisfactory food
will "create" about 800,000 workers
and won't getrun-down or overtired from
in the manufacturing group (196,000
want of proper nourishment; providing
in durable goods, 585,000 nondur-
free medication; etc. The list can go
able) and 550,000 in trade. Ultimate
on almost indefinitely. And, of course,
results will be greater: Not included
propaganda is a potent weapon against
in the calculation are transporta-
AWOLism: 'to impress workers with the
tion, mining, public utilities, fi-
need to produce to Beat the Axis.
nance, etc.
But with all these measures, it is
14
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
necessary to bear in mind that absentee-
in war production areas, it is to be
ism is born of the times: long hours,
expected thata high level of absentee-
night shifts, Saturday and Sunday work,
ism will be with us for the duration.
high hourly wage rates (as goods become
It's not defeatist to take that point
scarce, absenteeism may be given a fur-
of view, but realistic. And it's a prob-
ther impetus), the haphazard, crowded
lem whichwill become increasingly acute
living and transportation conditions
as the manpower squeeze and the demand
and the seller's market for labor. Hence,
for labor tighten.
SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS
Labor Turnover-Income Payments-Retail Sales-Consumer Expenditures.
Same
Same
Latest
Preceding
2 Months
6 Months
Year
Month
Month
Month
Month
Ago
Ago
Ago
1939
1937
LABOR TURNOVER IN MFG. INDUS-
TRIES (rate per hundred employees)
All manufacturing:
Accessions
6.92
8.14
8.69
8.25
4.76
2.84
2.12
Separations -Total
6.37
7.09
7.91
6.46
4.71
3.46
8.51
Quits
3.71
4.21
4.65
3.85
1.75
0.69
0.60
Military Separations
1.29
1.55
1.71
0.78
0.39
n.a.
n.a.
Aircraft:
Quits
3.69
3.93
4.41
3.60
2.28
1.14
0.68
Military Separations
1.78
2.22
2.82
0.93
0.81
n.a.
n.a.
Shipbuilding:
Quits
4.49
5.41
5.39
5.71
2.93
0.75
0.61
Military Separations
1.95
2.43
2.60
0.91
0.48
n.a.
n.a.
INCOME PAYMENTS-TOTAL (million
pl1,404
10,430
r10,603
9,647
9.376
7.053
6,604
dollars)
₽7,614
7,428
*7,279
6,591
5,843
4,126
3.731
Solories and Wages
Manufacturing, mining,
construction, agriculture
p6,061
5,961
r5.884
5,421
4,961
3,433
3,098
Government
pl.530
1,443
1,369
1,117
795
555
511
Other
p23
24
r26
53
87
138
122
Other income payments
p3.790
3,002
r3,324
3,056
3,533
2,927
2,873
Income payments, annual rate
(adjusted for seasonal, billion
dollars)
p127.9
125.2
r121.5
112.8
102.0
74.8
68.8
RETAIL SALES-TOTAL
(million dollars)
p5.981
4,893
5,284
4,503
5.585
4,453
4,016
Durable goods
p944
776
872
837
1,237
1,042
812
Nondurable goods
p5.037
4,116
4,413
3,666
4,348
3,411
3,204
CONSUMER EXPENDITURES-TOTAL
(million dollars)
7,162
7,422
6,945
6,544
6,385
5,252
5,011
Goods
4,823
5,120
4,646
4,267
4,233
3,383
3,199
Services
2,339
2,302
2,300
2.277
2,152
1,870
1,812
December except for consumer expenditures, November. P. Preliminary. Γ. Revised. n.s. Not available.
FEBRUARY 12, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL 15
PRODUCTION PROGRESS
Ground Army Munitions
Ground Army Ordnance and Ground
Signal Equipment
Combat Vehicles and Equipment
1500
500
1943 Objective
1943 Objective
$150 Billion
Forecost
$3.9 Billion
Excess
Excess
400
1000
Forecost
1943 Forecost
1943 Forecost
Prelimmary
300
$16.4 Billion
$4.6 Billion
200
500
Actual
Actual
100
o
o
1942
1943
1942
1943
Combat Vehicle Signal Equipment and
Combot Vehicles
Tank Cannon
60
400
1943 Objective
1943 Objective
$0.25 Billion
$3.6 Billion
VALUE DELIVERED- MILLIONS DELIVERED-MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
Excess
Excess
Forecost
300
40
1943 Forecost
1943 Forecast
$027 Billion
$4.4 Billion
Preliminary
200
20
Forecost
VALUE DELIVERED- MILLIONS DELIVERED-MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
Actual
100
Actual
O
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
Army Ground Signal Equipment
Army Ammunition- Total
125
1943 Objective
600
1943 Objective
$1.3 Billion
$6.0 Billion
Excess
100
Deficit
Forecost"
Forecost
ES
400
75
1943 Forecost
1943 Forecost
$1.1 Billion
$6.1 Billion
Preliminary
50
200
25
Actual
Actual
0
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
.
Bosed on lotest schedules of procurement agencies.
WAR PROGRESS
16 CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
PRODUCTION PROGRESS
Ground Army Munitions (continued)
Artillery and Equipment
Artillery and Tank Cannon Ammunition
300
200
1943 Objective
1943 Objective
$1.3 Billion
$2.3 Billion
Excess
Excess
150
Forecost
Forecost'
200
1943 Forecost
1943 Forecost
$1.9 Billion:
$26 Billion:
100
100
Actual
50
Actual
o
o
1942
1943
1942
1943
Antiaircraft Guns and Equipment
Antiaircraft Ammunition
200
75
1943 Objective
1943 Objective
$1.82 Billion
$0.47 Billion
VALUE DELIVERED-MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
Deficit
150
Forecost
50
1943 Forecost
1943 Forecast
$179 Billion:
$0.47 Billion:
100
Forecost*
25
VALUE DELIVERED-MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
50
Actual
Actual
o
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
Small Arms and Infantry Weapons
Small Arms and Infantry Weapon
Ammunition
100
300
1943 Objective
1943 Objactive
$0.67 Billion
$32 Billion
Excess
Deficit
Forecost*
75
Forecost'
200
1943 Forecost
1943 Forecast
$0.87 Billion:
$3.0 Billion
50
100
25
Actual
Actual
o
o
1942
1943
1942
1943
Bosed on lotest schedules of procurament agencies
WAR PROGRESS
The President
2
WAR PROGRESS
Confidential
(British Secret)
x on
M BBP - MAR 29 1973
-
Construction Machinery Hide-and-Seek
CMP's First Allotments
Number 127
February 19, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL
NUMBER 127
WAR PROGRESS
FEBRUARY 19, 1943
Tractors, Graders, Crushers, and Cranes
They play hide-and-seek with requirements;
for despite a decline in war building,
AIRPLANE REBOUND
demand for construction equipment rises
AIRPLANE ACCEPTANCES during the first
sharply. Problem is one of distribution.
half of February totaled $208,500,-
HERE IS A PARADOX: Total government-
000, a new peak level for a half-
financed war construction this year will
monthly period and $35,000,000 above
run some 25% under 1942, but estimated
the January 1-15 figure. Acceptances
demand for construction machinery will
per day averaged 29% more than in the
be up considerably-from 11% to 88% in
first 15 days of January.
six principal types of equipment (chart,
If the pattern of recent months
page 3).
is followed, dollar value of plane
Part of this apparent inconsistency
acceptances for the full month should
--a decline in construction and a rising
come to around $550,000,000--which
demand for the machinery of construc-
would be a new record. Though this
tion-can be explained by the more than
would be 9% below the 8-L schedule
50%increase in estimated overseas build-
of $613,000,000, it would surpass
ing by the armed services. Both the
January by 22%, even though last
Army and the Navy show an understand-
month had three more days.
able preference for new machinery in
present and potential combat areas, rath-
But the paradox does not end there.
er than used equipment that has devel-
Last year we had sufficient machinery
oped hidden weaknesses from wear and tear.
to put up approximately $9,500,000,000
Whereas last year 35% to 85% of cer-
worth of government-financed war con-
tain key construction machinery output
struction, and although some of this
went to the armed services, this year
equipment undoubtedly needs repairs and
estimated proportions are expected to
some of it has been junked--or should
range from 80% to 95% (and most of the
be--a good part of it is still available
equipment is probably destined to go
for active service. This year such con-
abroad), as follows:
struction is destined to drop sharply
% of Production
--roughly 40%-to about $5,700,000,000;
Machine
to Armed Services
yet to turn out this smaller volume we
(Estimated)
are forced to add to the domestic in-
Concrete construction mixers
80%
ventory of tractors, graders, crushers,
Power cranes & shovels*
80
mixers, cranes, shovels, etc.
Jaw & roll crushers
85
Track-laying tractors
85
NOMCONSTRUCTION USES
Motor graders
90
Of course, some of this equipment
Bituminous mixing plants
95
has multiple uses. Tractors, for ex-
Centrifugal pumps**
95
ample, are used for hauling logs as
* Including drag lines
well as for road building; cranes and
** Self-priming
shovels are used for mining as well as
2
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
for unloading cargoes and for airport
facturer about 700 miles away, but the
construction; graders are used for patch-
Office of Defense Transportation-which
ing bombed airfields as well as for
had jurisdiction over the sale of the
highway maintenance; self-priming cen-
equipment--thought the "Army might need
trifugal pumps are used for mobile wa-
them." Three hundred miles distant,
ter-purifying units as well as for drain-
14 suitable Euclids were working on an
ing swamps prior to construction; and
18-month municipal waterworks project
so forth.
yet a rental of three machines, which
But in most items, the main use is
would have lengthened the construction
war construction. And the demand for
period 10 days, could not be arranged.
such equipment--both from the armed
forces and from agriculture, mining,
30-DAY DELAY
logging camps, etc.--is rising.
Finally, five small used Euclids
were acquired from a private contractor
RIGHT PLACE, RIGHT TIME
600 miles away. But construction of
Essentially, the problem is one of
the aircraft engine plant was delayed
distribution--getting the right piece
30 days.
of equipment to the right place at the
Such examples can be multiplied.
right time. A few months ago, construc-
Construction of synthetic rubber plants
tion of a Midwestern aircraft engine
in the Southwest have been reputedly
plant required three large Euclids--
delayed because of shortages of cranes,
heavy-duty, earth-moving truck-tractors
shovels, and other construction equip-
--which the contractor was hard put to
ment. An army airfield has been held
buy, borrow, or lease. Here is an ac-
up because a particular type of concrete
tual case uncovered by the Construction
paver (34-E dual drum)was unobtainable.
Machinery Division:
When one was found, the owner demanded
An Army pool in an adjacent district
onerous terms. So, WPB was forced to
had eight on hand, but the request was
institute requisitionproceedings (which
referred to the area office, which in
were subsequently dropped when the own-
turn asked for approval from Washington.
er relaxed his demands).
Six new machines were held by a manu-
DIFFUSE OWNERSHIP
Because construction machinery is
IN THIS ISSUE:
spread widely over many areas and be-
TRACTORS, GRADERS, CRUSHERS, AND CRANES
1
cause, further, its ownership is so
diffuse, the problem of obtaining better
AIRPLANE REBOUND
1
and prompter distribution of the avail-
CONTROLLED MATERIALS PLAN IN ACTION
5
able supply is intensified in several
*THE FUTURE IS ONLY THE PAST AGAIN
8,9
ways:
1. Private contractors are loath
GIVE-AND-TAKE OF LEND-LEASE
10
to sell or lease their equipment; an-
KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK
12
other job might turn up in the interim,
or terms may not be right.
TANKER PROBLEM
12
2. States, counties, and municipali-
SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS
13
ties are under various restrictions
PRODUCTION PROGRESS (NAVAL SHIPS)
about letting equipment get out of their
...
.14-16
control. Here the rigid hand of statute
FEBRUARY 19, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL 3
CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY PARADOX
Demand for tractors, mixers, cranes and shovels, etc., is estimated to increase
like this:
125
125
Power Crones and Shovels
Bituminous Mixing Plants
Including drog lines
100
100
75
PERCENT
75
PERCENT
50
50
25
25
o
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
125
125
Centrifugal Pumps
Jaw and Roll Crushers
Self-priming
100
100
75
75
PERCENT
PERCENT
50
50
25
25
0
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
125
IB8
125
Motor Graders
Track-laying Tractors
100
100
75
75
PERCENT
PERCENT
50
50
25
25
0
o
1942
1943
1942
1943
But total war construction is slated to go down, with the biggest drop in
industrial facilities:
125
Industrial Facilities
125
Total War Construction
Government Financed
Excluding Mochinery and Equipment
100
100
75
75
PERCENT
PERCENT
50
50
25
25
o
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
WAR PROGRESS
4
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
closes the door. Yet, because of rubber
Dozers
1,400
and gasoline restrictions, road upkeep
Loaders
1,300
--for which most local-government con-
* Track-laying and wheel
struction machinery is bought--is down;
and consequently the need for such equip-
3. Army and Navy procedure also gets
ment is also down. Here's a partial
in the way of the free flow of equip-
list of construction machinery and equip-
ment on hand. The tendency is to hold
ment in the hands of local governments:
construction machinery in pools in lo-
cal areas awaiting calls--mostly on
Snow plows
27,700
work for the Services. This leads to
Motor graders
16,700
underutilization of existing machinery.
Tractors*
16,700
Pull graders
16,100
WHILE TOOLS LIE IDLE
Spreaders
6,300
The main point is that construction
Scrapers & carryalls
5,100
is going down (chart, below).
Con-
Rollers
4,700
tractors who a few months ago were work-
Mixers
4,100
ing their machinery overtime are now
Crushers
2.000
hunting for work todo; equipment is idle
TRENDS IN WAR CONSTRUCTION
1500
1500
Government financed-excluding machinery and equipment.
1000
1000
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
Industrial Facilities
All Other
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
500
Wor Housing
and Public Works,
500
Troop Housing
Aircraft Fields
and Bases
0
0
1942
1943
ACTUAL
FORECAST
WAR PROGRESS
AFTER REACHING A PEAK OF $1,300,000,000 IN AUGUST, IN 1943-A MODEST RISE IN THE EARLY MONTHS, THEN A
1942, WAR CONSTRUCTION HAS FALLEN STEADILY FOR FIVE RESUMPT ION OF THE DROP-DIFFERENCES ARE APPARENT ON
MONTHS. AND FOLLOWING A SLIGHT FEBRUARY-APRIL BULGE,
A YEAR-TO-YEAR BASIS. INDUSTRIAL FACILITIES, FOR
SCHEDULES CALL FOR A FURTHER DECLINE. WHILE ALL EXAMPLE, WILL BE OFF 51%, TROOP HOUSING, 215, AND
CLASSES ARE SLATED TO TRACE THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN AIRFIELDS, 6%; BUT WAR HOUSING WILL RISE 75.
FEBRUARY 19, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL
5
in one spot, in urgent demand elsewhere.
curtailed, thus saving materials and
If this pool of equipment could be
manpower for munitions. Indeed, this
coordinated--directed to where it is
might well open the way to fuller con-
needed--the domestic demand for con-
version of construction machinery plants
struction machinery could be somewhat
to war work.
Controlled Materials Plan in Action
Claimant agencies-as in the British debut-
steel, copper, and alumirium-were cut
overshoot the mark on requests, and Re-
to 84% in carbon steel and down to 58%
quirements Committee has to do some
in copper-brass mill products. But in
pruning. Major agencies closest to line.
individual instances, cuts were much
greater. For instance, in carbon steel
FOR THE FIRST TIME AROUND, claimant agen-
cuts amounted to 52% (Office of Rubber
cies under the Controlled Materials Plan
Director); in aluminum, to 58% (Canada);
followed the pattern set by their Brit-
in copper-brass mill products, to 71%
ish prototypes when the Iron and Steel
(Secretary of Agriculture); and so forth.
Allocations Schemewas first instituted
These curtailments do not necessarily
over there, back in 1941. To be in a
imply that production will actually be
good bargaining position for "getting
affected sharply. In many cases requests
theirs," they overrequested materials.
were disproportionately high relative
to real requirements because of the in-
OVERLAP OF "A" AND "8"
clusion of contingency reserves. Had
Another reason for oversized requests
such reserves been excluded, the allot-
was duplication resulting from confu-
ment-to-request ratios would not have
sion over "A" and "B" products and from
been as low as the following table sug-
lack of information (bills of materials)
gests-this is particularly true of the
particularly on "B" products (WP-Jan15
carbon steel authorization to the Navy
143,p8). As a result, original- second-
and the aluminum authorization to air-
quarter requests exceeded expected sup-
craft (excluded from the table are al-
plies by from 24% in the case of aluminum
lotments to the Office of Civilian Sup-
to 35% in copper. Though reduced by
ply and "B" products because such de-
preliminary revisions, when finally sub-
terminations are still tentative):
mitted to the Requirements Committee,
some wholesale pruning of requirements
Allotment as
still had to be done to equalize demanu
% of Requests
and supply.
Carbon steel
As time goes along, however, and as
Three biggest claimants:
claimant agencies learn from actual ex-
Army
90%
perience in dealing with the Require-
Maritime Commission
92
ments Committee, it is to be presumed
Navy
87
that requests will come much closer to
Next three claimants:
supply. At least that was the British
Lend-Lease
67
experience.
Defense Transportation
71
On the whole, second quarter requests
Canada
86
for the three controlled materials--
All other claimants
75
JANUARY 8, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL
9
industrial pumps, automatic pilots, in-
dustrial process instruments, speea re-
NEW ECONOMIC TABULATIONS
ducers, hand service tools, and a number
of other components are currently ex-
WAR PROGRESS has revised its tabula-
pected to cover 1943 requirements. In-
tions of monthly economic data, and
deed, capacity for turning out compres-
beginning this week (page 14), they
sors-used in shipyards, ordnance fac-
will appear in more condensed form
tories, synthetic-rubber and 100-octane
under the new title of "Selected
gasoline plants, actually some-
Monthly Statistics." Both confiden-
what higher than this year's require-
tial and nonconfidential statistics
ments. But the surplus capacity is con-
will be included, but only those data
centrated in larger units; smaller com-
will be presented which help to give
pressors still are a production bottle-
a quick, rounded picture of the prog-
neck. Besides, supply and requirements
ress of the war effort. Figures will
in virtually all the others balance so
be presented promptly as they become
closely that even a slight change in the
available, and changes may be made
program could knock the facilities pic-
in the list from time to time as new
ture out of kilter.
statistical measures of important
economic trends are evolved or older
MUST FORSEE CHANGES
ones lose their significance.
Essentially, as production rises and
as programs change, there is urgent need
duction and deliveries. For instance,
to foresee increased demands for certain
1943 output of antifriction bearings
types of industrial and munitions com-
cannot be estimated until the latest
ponents. When, the tank program, for ex-
aircraft and tank requirements are known.
ample, is cut back, requirements for
For many other components, manufacturers
Diesel engines go down. On the other
have never reported production; or, when
hand, if antiaircraft schedules go up,
they have, reports have been incomplete.
then the production of amplidynes for
automatic fire control instruments must
DATA SKETCHY
be scheduled out accordingly. And be-
The consequence is that reasonably
cause of frequently complicated inter-
accurate supply-requirements estimates
relationships among components, adequate
on a major portion of the components
scheduling is seldom a simple problem.
currently being studied aren't avail-
able. Amplidynes (motor generator sys-
TAILOR-MADE TURBINES
tems used in automatic fire control),
Consider the case of marine turbines.
crankshafts, forgings, meters, steam
When strategy dictates a switch from
engines, Parker-type fittings (used in
heavy combat ships to vessels expressly
aircraft, tank, and submarine fuel sys-
designed to protect convoys, new turbines
tems), ship propulsion machinery, and
must be designedand built. The original
optical systems for binoculars, range
ones can't be substituted; turbines--
finders, high altitude cameras, etc.
like most components--are tailor-made.
are all cases in point.
And finally, adequate statistical
In many instances, the shortage of
information on supply and demand is not
components is traceable directly to un-
always available far enough in advance
usually large demands for particular
to permit dovetailed planning of pro-
purposes. Thus the synthetic-rubber,
6
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
CHARTING THE FIRST ROUND OF CMP
The armed services take from 45% to 84% of total allotments.
Allotments as %
Allotments as %
ALUMINUM
of requests
of requests
COPPER CONTENT
Grand Total
80%
76%
% Distribution
% Distribution
of Allotments
of Allotments
Domestic
8888
Nonmilitory
Export
5%
Closs"B"
Military
Export
Domestic
80%
82%
6%
Nonmili-
6%
tory
8%
Class "B"
11%
69%
Class "B"
49%
Military
Military
84%
77%
Domestic
96%
Nonmilitory
64%
Export
73%
93%
Allotments os %
Allotments os %
CARBON STEEL
of requests
of requests
ALLOY STEEL
Grand Total
84%
83%
% Distribution
of Allotments
% Distribution
of Allotments
Domestic
Export
Military
Nonmilitory
90%
88%
Export
(9%
ET
Military
Domestic
45%
Nonmilitory
19%
Closs B
Class "B"
17%8
86%
73%
Military
71%
Class "B"
$25%
Domestic
80%
Nonmilitary
65%
72%
Export
76%
"All class "B" data refer to o tentative reserve.
WAR PROGRESS
FEBRUARY 1943
CONFIDENTIAL
7
Allotment as
other allotments amount to follows:
% of Requests
Carbon steel
Alloy steel
Army
22.6%
Three biggest claimants:
Maritime Commission
12.7
Army
83%
Navy
8.6
Navy
93
Three large allotments
43.9
Aircraft
96
Other allotments
31.8
Next three claimants:
"B" products
24.8
Lend-Lease
93
Reserve
4.5
Canada
53
Total
105.0%
Petroleum Administrator.
85
Alloy steel
All other claimants
78
Army
41.3%
Aluminum
Navy
15.5
Four biggest claimants:
Aircraft Resources Control Office 14.8
Aircraft
79
Three large allotments
71.6
Army
91
Other allotments
12.6
Navy
87
"B" products
17.8
Lend-Lease
75
Reserve
2.9
All other claimants
15
Total
105.0%
Copper base alloy (sheet & strip)
Aluminum
Three biggest claimants:
Aircraft
67.7%
Army
81
Army
7.3
Navy
79
Navy
4.7
Lend-Lease
100
Three large allotments
79.7
Next three claimants:
Other allotments
12.3
Aircraft
63
"B" products
3.5
Canada
76
Reserve
4.5
Petroleum Administrator.
100
Total
100.0%
All other claimants
66
Copper content
In most cases the three major claim-
Army
45.7%
ants for each material came closer to
Navy
17.6
getting their requests in line with ac-
Lend-Lease
4.8
tual allotments than other claimants.
Three large allotments
68.1
Other allotments
11.6
SUBJECT TO SCRUTINY
"B" products
10.1
Since their individual and combined
Reserve
10.2
requirements come to such a large pro-
Total
100.0%
portion of the total supply, their re-
quirements were actually subjected to
In the case of carbon and alloy steel,
scrutiny and negotiation before being
allotments exceed estimated supply by
formally filed.
5%. This inflation follows established
What proportion of supply was allotted
procedure, assuring steel producers of
to military products, domestic nonmili-
sufficient orders for maintaining ca-
tary products and export or set aside
pacity production even if, in the course
as reserve for class "B" products is
of the quarter, some orders should be
shown in the chart (page 6). What
three
cancelled because of changes in programs
major claimants receive and what all. and schedules.
8
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
"THE FUTURE IS ONLY THE PAST AGAIN" - ECONOMIC MOBII
Most of today's major war agencies have their 1917-18 shadows- WPB, the War Industries Bd
PRE
OFFICE
OF
ECONOMIC
STABILIZATION
STATE
AGRICULTURE
TREASURY
LABOR
PRICE
FIXING
COMM.
OFFICE OF
PRICE
ADMINISTRATION
AMERICAN
RELIEF ADM
U.S. FOCO
WAR FINANCE
NATIONAL WAR
(1919
ADM
CORP
LABOR BOARD
R.R.ADM.
OFFICE OF
FOREIGN RELIEF
SECRETARY OF
AGRICULTURE
NATIONAL
AND REHABIL-
R.F.C.
AS FOOD
WAR LABOR
O.D.T.
ITATION
ADMINISTRATOR
BOARD
SPECIALIZED ORGANIZATION UNITS ARE UNAVOIDABLE: YET
Organization Parallel
SPECIALIZED UNITS, BECAUSE OF THEIR OWN SPECIAL
INTERESTS, TOO OFTEN DO NOT SEE WAR PROBLEMS AS A
WHOLE.
THE PROBLEM OF ECONOMIC MOBILIZATION, THOUGH MANY
FOR THE HARD FACTS OF OPERATIONS ARE THAT NO
SIDED, CAN BE SIMPLY STATED: TO DIRECT THE NATIONAL
ORGANIZATION CHART CAN MAKE SEPARATE PROBLEMS OUT
RESOURCES-LABOR, MATERIALS, AND MACHINES-TOWARD
OF WHAT IS ESSENTIALLY ONE OVERRIDING PROBLEM:
THE SINGLE-ENDED PURPOSE OF WINNING THE WAR, BUT
MOBILIZING ALL RESOURCES AT THE SAME TIME FOR WAR.
THE DIRECTION OF RESOURCES INTO VARIOUS COMPETING
IN HIS REPORT TO PRESIDENT WILSON IN 1919, THE
CHANNELS-MUNITIONS PRODUCTION, FOOD PRODUCTION,
CHAIRMAN OF THE WAR INDUSTRIES BOARD WROTE:
FUEL, TRANSPORTATION, ETC.-PRESENTS ALMOST INSUR-
"WHEN IT IS REMEMBERED THAT WHAT WAS REALLY BEING
MOUNTABLE DIFFICULTIES. THE JOB IS so BIG THAT
ADMINISTEREDWAS TOTALITY OF AMERICAN RESOURCE, THAT
FEBRUARY 19, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL 9
OBILIZATION, THIS WAR AND LAST
es Board; Lend-Lease, the Allied Purchasing Commission, and so on.
PRESIDENT
NAVY
WAR
INTERIOR
WAR
INDUSTRIES
BOARD
WAR
PRODUCTION
BOARD
N
RUBBER
DIRECTOR
AL LIED
WAR TRADE
U.S. SHIPPING
WAR LABOR
SELEC
PURCHASING
U.S. FUEL
BOARD
COMMISSION
BOARD
POLICIES BOARD
TIVE
SERVICE
ADM.
W.S.A.
WAR
SELEC-
PETROLEUM
B.E.W.
O.L.L.A.
AND
MANPOWER
TIVE
ADM. FOR WAR
MARITIME
COMMISSION
SERVICE
a SOLID FUELS
COMMISSION
COORDINATOR
WAR PROGRESS
EACH [INDIVIDUAL] ADMINISTRATION THROUGH INTACT PE- AS WE APPROACH SUCH LIMITS, THE LESS ROOM THERE IS
CULIAR TO ITSELF REFLECTED VERY ACCURATELY THE REAL
FOR INDEPENDENT ACTION BY INDEPENDENT AGENCIES.
SITUATION ONLY IN ITS OWN GALLERY AND NOT ELSEWHERE,
EVERY PROGRAM AND POLICY IMPINGES ON SOME OTHER
WE ARE COMPELLED- TO THE CONCLUSION THAT ... A MORE
PROGRAM AND POLICY. AN ARMY DECISION TO INCREASE
SYSTEMATIC ORGANIZATION WOULD HAVE RESULTED FROM A PRODUCTION OF A MAJOR MUNITIONS ITEM, FOR EXAMPLE,
GROUPING OF [INDIVIDUAL] ADMINISTRATIONS ABOUT A
DEMANDS A DECISION FROM THE WAR MANPOWER COMMISSION
COMMON FUNCTIONAL CENTER...*
ON THE AVAILABILITY OF LABOR, FROM THE OFFICE OF
AS POINTED OUT EARLY LAST MONTH, THIS PROBLEM
DEFENSE TRANSPORTATION ON TRANSPORTATION, FROM THE
OF INTER-AGENCY COORDINATION IS BOUND TO BECOME WAR PRODUCTION BOARD ON MATERIALS, ETC.
INCREASINGLY CRITICAL IN 1943 (WP-JAN8'43,P1).
WE SHALL SOON HAVE TAKEN UP THE SLACK IN AMER-
THE UNITED STATES IS REACHING THE LIMITS OF CA- ICA'S PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY: THE NEXT STEP IS TO TAKE
PACITY IN MANPOWER, MATERIALS, AND MACHINES. AND UP THE SLACK IN ORGANIZATION.
10
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
Give-and-Take of Lend-Lease
As our troops take up stations in Britain, Aus-
equipment--will cost the United Kingdom
tralia, New Zealand,etc., the tide of recip-
about $560,000,000 when completed.
rocal food, shelter, munitions and
All American soldiers in the British
supplies-rises.
Isles are fed and supplied to some extent
under reciprocal aid. (American supply
LEND-LEASE isno longer a one-way street.
officers are only allowed to spend up
As increasing numbers of American troops
to $20 for any single purchase; anything
land on allied territory, reciprocal aid
above that is procured on reverse lend-
--so far as it can be evaluated in dollar
lease. Hence, since June, 1942, the U.S.
terms--begins to offset an increasing
Army disbursed only about $1,000,000 in
part of total U.S. aid to those countries.
cash purchases.)
In effect, lend-lease reciprocity is
an exchange by the United States of mu-
TONS OF FOODSTUFFS
nitions, food, metals, industrial ma-
Some of the American troops get only.
chinery and miscellaneous services for
British rations for a time; others re-
food, shelter, services, and some muni-
ceive American rations (chiefly frozen
tions for its forces overseas.
and canned meat and fish) supplemented
by British bread, home-grown vegetables,
YANKS IN BRITAIN
tea, chocolate, cereals, sugar, etc.
The last seven months of 1942 are a
Altogether, the U.S. Army obtained about
case in point. American forces in Great
29,000 long tons of foodstuffs from June
Britain received 1,120,000 long tons of
1 to December 31, 1942. In 1943, how-
supplies from British stocks (excluding
ever, the draft on British stocks is
construction materials), more than the
scheduled to increase sevenfold, as the
amount sent to our forces from the United
following table indicates:
States. In the same period, total U.S.
lend-lease and direct purchase exports
Procurement
1943
to the United Kingdom are estimated at
6/1/42 to
Require-
7,500,000 long tons.
12/31/42
ments
The Quartermaster Corps got about
(thousand long tons)
53% of the reciprocal aid; Corps of Engi-
Sugar & syrup
2.2
40.8
neers, 19%; Ordnance Department, 10%;
Flour
3.8
68.1
Air Force and Medical Corps, 8% each;
Composition
Signal and Transportation Corps, the
rations
12.2
nil
rest
Fresh fruits &
vegetables
2.1
22.6
BARRACKS AND CAMPS
Potatoes
5.0
32.0
Food, shelter, munitions, medical
Marmalade & jam.
nil
13.0
supplies, and miscellaneous military
Salt
0.01
5.7
equipment constitute the bulk of British
Others
3.6
34.7
reciprocal aid. The construction pro-
Total
28.9
216.8
gram for American troops alone--bar-
racks, camps, airfields, repair depots,
In military supplies, the United King-
hospitals, and their maintenance and dom's stocks are regarded as a common
FEBRUARY 19,1943
CONFIDENTIAL 11
pool. Thus, the British have lend-leased
undertaken, in collaboration with New
to the United States over 3,800 tons of
Zealand, to feed those in New Caledonia,
ammunition; artillery for an entire di-
New Guinea, New Hebrides, and the Sol-
vision; several hundred Spitfires; 80,-
omons. Australia also makes uniforms,
000 tons of coal; a number of medical
tires, aircraft parts, tractors, and
maintenance units (one unit will carry
motor vehicles for the American army,
100,000 men for thirty days); over 25,-
and provides numerous transportation
000 bicycles; and 30,000 tons of engi-
and communication services. American
neering equipment.
warships and auxiliary vessels are docked
The U.S. Navy has been provided with
and repaired in Australia on reverse
some British arms, ammunition, naval.
lend-lease.
stores, bunker oil, grease, degaussing
equipment, and the like.
AND THE FIJI ISLANDS
New Zealand likewise lend-leases many
RANGE OF SERVICES
goods and services to the United States.
Services furnished under reverse
About one-fifth of New Zealand's recip-
lend-lease range from recreational fa-
rocal aid (in dollar terms) to the end
cilities to repairing naval ships and
of 1942 has consisted of foodstuffs.
transporting American troops and their
Camps, warehouses, hospitals (for Ameri-
equipmentin and out of the British Isles.
can forces invalided to New Zealand),
Thus, over 700,000 deadweight tons of
communications, fuel, small boats, steve-
British shipping were made available
doring and port charges, blankets and
for transporting military cargo, not
boots, are also important items. In
including a number of troopships. Some
addition, New Zealand has supplied a
400 R.A.F. instructors have been detailed
large amount of military equipment and
to U.S. Army Air Force schools. British
foodstuffs used by the American Army in
military and civilian personnel supple-
the Fiji Islands.
ment American staffs at airfields, bar-
racks, supply and repair depots. U.S.
MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
Army officers are billeted on lend-lease
Other countries have provided reverse
in private homes and hotels.
lend-lease. In fact, whenever. the U.S.
Reverse lend-lease likewise embraces
Army or Navy enters British or Free
materials exported to the United States,
French territory-Egypt, South Africa,
such as barrage balloons, machine tools
West Africa, New Caledonia, India, etc.
in short supply here, and a. few indus-
--it draws to the maximum extent on local
trial materials. Thus, some 20,000 tons
supplies. Thus, in the Middle East, our
of high-grade benzol, used in the manu-
troops received goods andservices valued
facture of aviation gasoline, have al-
at around $6,500,000 up to November 30,
ready been received and 40,000 more are
1942, including $5,000,000 turned over
due.
to them in local currency to procure
labor and materials.
THEY SHIPPED TO BATAAN
Russia is not at present supplying
Australia's reverse lend-lease pro-
us with the reciprocal aid, for two
gram hegan with shipments of food to
reasons: (1) her resources are strained
MacArthur's army on Bataan. Today Aus- to the utmost in fighting she Axis; (2)
tralia supplies nearly all the food con- no American troops are stationed in
Anmed by our forces on its soil and has the U.S.S.R.
12 CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK
Lotest
Preceding
Month
6 Months
Year
Week
Week
Ago
Ago
Ago
War program Checks paid (millions of dollars)
1,395
1,417
1,446
1,169
500
Wor bond soles (millions of dollars)
220
182
344
145
155
Commodity prices (August 1939=100)
28 Bosic commodities
174.7
174.7
173.6
167.3
165.2
Controlled
162.0
162.1
161.8
161.4
162.1
Uncontrolled
206.8
206.7
203.4
182.1
173.1
Nonferrous metal scrap
117.3
117.5
117.5
119.0
131.5
Textile scrop
172.9
172.8
172.5
171.6
173.7
Petroleum corloadings (no. of tank cars)
Total
52,197
52,721
53,156
52,331
49,364
Movement into Eost
27,168
25,812
26,666
26,981
6,935
Exports (no. of freight cors unloaded for export Friday)
Atlantic Coast ports
1,514
1,223
1,156
1,518
1,587
Gulf Coast ports
335
335
370
442
353
Pocific Coost ports
906
886.
926
808
324
Unused steel copacity (% operations below capacity)
0.5
0.7
0.2
2.8
3.8
Tanker Problem
construction did not equal losses in the
second half of last year. And altogether,
tanker tonnage of the United Nations
Subs outsank United Nations construction in
declined 15% between Pearl Harbor and
1942 despite record output in U.S. shipyards;
the end of 1942.
so 43 goals have been set higher. Newtech-
Tankers, therefore, present a major
niques may cut building time.
United Nations production objective for
1943. And this country bears the heavy
IN 1942, tankers were the special tar-
production burden. U.S. plans call for
gets of enemy submarines. Sinkings were
tripling output to some 200 vessels,
up about 180% over 1941, compared with
totaling about 3,450,000 tons deadweight.
85% for all merchant vessels.
This will constitute around 18% of the
entire programfor ocean-going merchant
RATE OF SINKINGS
ships, as compared with 13% in 1942. In
In the first half of the year, sub-
addition, the Maritime Commission is
marines were especially effective in
planning to convert a number of dry-cargo
their efforts, sinking tankers three
ships to bulk-petroleum carriers.
times as fast as United Nations ship-
yards combined could build them.
STIFF SCHEDULE
However, with the institution of con-
This represents a major stepup in
voys and the routing of domestic fuel
operations, requiring an average output
by rail, barge, and pipeline to the East-
during 1943 of 17 tankers a month and,
ern seaboard, losses dropped sharply.
as schedules are now laid out, 22 ves-
At the same time, United States con-
sels per month by the end of the year.
struction picked up (26 vessels in the
Yet in 1942 the country's shipyards aver-
first half of '42, and 36 in the second).
aged only five per month and in the last
Even with these additions to the fleet,
three months-from November through Jan-
FEBRUARY 19, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL 13
uary-the average was six vessels..
ever, and repetitive operations and as-
Most of the ocean-going tankers now
sembly-line techniques are perfected.
on the ways are ships of 16,600 tons.
building time for tankers should be
deadweight, capable of making 14.5 to
cut sharply-perhaps to four months or
15.5 knots. Each has a capacity of about
less.
4,250,000 gallons.
The limiting factor in the tanker.
program is the availability of propul-
COMPARATIVE BUILDING TIME
sion machinery (large turbines and gen-
At present, it takes approximately
erators), even though additional facil-
180 days to build a tanker, from keel-
ities for manufacturing these critical
laying to delivery, as against 52.6 days
components were brought into production
for 10,000-ton Liberty ships. But tank-
in 1942. Attainment of objectives also
ers are larger and of more complicated
depends on the supply of critical mate-
design than Liberties. Moreover, the
rials--especially steel. Will the tanker
Liberty ship has been in mass production
program get all the steel it needs? This
for more than a year, while tankers are
is as much a strategic as an industrial
just entering the mass-production stage.
decision, depending in the end on how
As industrial know-how is gained, how- badly our own and allied forces need oil.
SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS
Production Hours and Earnings
Same
Some
Lotest
Preceding
2 Months
6 Months
Year
Month
Month
Month*
Month
Ago
Ago
Ago
1939
1937
PRODUCTION INDEX-INDUSTRIAL
p194
193
194
180
166
117
82
Total Manufactures
p207
206
206
189
173
118
78
Durable
p286
282
279
251
216
128
70
Nonduroble
p143
145
146
139
137
109
85
Minerols
p117
120
132
131
125
117
100
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS (Cents)
All Manufocturing Industries
90.7
90.5
r89.3
84.0
78.7
66.2
65.6
Durable Goods
100.4
100.5
r99.0
93.3
87.1
72.7
71.0
Nondurable Goods
76.2
75.6
r75.1
72.7
69.5
60.5
60.7
Bituminous Cool Mining
108.5
107.3
r107.0
108.6
106.8
88.9
86.6
Metalliferous Mining
93.4
92.8
91.3
88.7
85.4
70.5
70.0
AVERAGE HOURS PER WEEK
All Manufacturing Industries
44.4
44.0
43.6
42.6
41.2
38.6
34.5
Durable Goods
46.2
46.1
r45.8
45.1
42.8
39.6
34.2
Nondurable Goods
42.1
41.3
-40.8
39.6
39.4
37.7
34.7
Bituminous Cool Mining
35.7
34.4
34.2
33.2
31.6
28.1
29.1
Metolliferous Mining
43.9
44.4
44.0
44.0
43.0
40.0
43.8
Production (unadjusted), January: hours and earnings. December.
Production figures for 1939 and 1937 represent
1940 and 1938 respectively. P Preliminary. r Revised.
14 CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
PRODUCTION PROGRESS
Naval, Army, and Merchant Ships and Equipment
Total Naval Vessels
Battleships, Cruisers, Corriers
125
800
Forecost
100
600
Forecast
75
Actual
400
50
Actual
200
25
o
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
Destroyers
Submarines
125
60
VALUE PUT IN PLACE - MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
100
Forecast
Forecost
40
75
Actual
50
20
Actual
VALUE PUT IN PLACE - MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
25
o
o
1942
1943
1942
1943
Antisubmarine
Other Minor Combat Ships,
Noval Auxiliaries, and Conversions
400
125
100
300
Forecost
Forecost
75
200
50
100
Actual
25
Actual
o
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
# Volue in place based on delivery schedules on January I, 1943
WAR PROGRESS
FEBRUARY 19, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL 15
PRODUCTION PROGRESS
Naval, Army, and Merchant Ships and Equipment (Continued)
Transports, Landing Vessels,
and Army Auxiliaries
Transports
250
30
200
Forecost
20
150
Forecost
100
10
Actual
50
Actual
O
o
1942
1943
1942
1943
Landing Vessels
Army Auxiliaries
200
60
VALUE PUT IN PLACE - MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
150
40
100
Forecost
Forecost
20
VALUE PUT IN PLACE - MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
50
Actual
Actual
o
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
Naval Guns and Fire Control
Noval Gun Ammunition
150
150
Forecost
Forecast
100
100
Actual
50
50
Actual
o
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
-
Value in place bosed on delivery schedules on January ", 1943.
WAR PROGRESS
10
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
100-octane gasoline, and destroyer es-
is a major production. job for 1943--
cort vessel programs have thrown a heavy
coordinating the flow of raw materials
load on the productive capacities of
with the scheduling of components pro-
plants making turbines, gears, fans,
duction and end products.
blowers, valves, heat exchangers, elec-
trical equipment, and pumps. But the
TOO CRITICAL ITEMS
problem extends to raw materials, too.
The magnitude of the job is only now
coming into sight. From 26 classes a
MATERIALS TO COMPONENTS
few weeks ago, the list of critical com-
Allotments of critical metals and
ponents now being studied has grown to
materials will be made to the claimant
70 (table, page 8); including sub-
agencies--Army, Navy, Maritime Commis-
classes, the total is over 200. And as
sion, Aircraft Scheduling Unit, Office
the months move along, the list will
of Civilian Supply, Office of the Rubber
grow larger. For the more end products
Director, etc. Not only must these al-
made, the greater will be the demand for
lotments be directed to manufacturers
industrial components and the greater
of end products, such as planes, tanks,
will be the needfor accurate scheduling
guns, and ships, but they must also be
of production--from raw material to in-
directed to manufacturers of industrial
termediate product to the finished mu-
components for those items.
And
that
nitions item.
Plane Output, Plus "Pool", Up 18%
Hits new high in dollar value and passes Pres- for lack of a component part or instru-
ident's promise of a 5,000-a-month
ment or pilot or because of bad weath-
rate; planes added to "pool" boosted total.
er. It increased sharply during the
Year's output 2 1/2 times 41.
final days of the month, suggesting that
there was an increase in the number of
AIRPLANE ACCEPTANCES in December came
December acceptances lacking certain
to $513,512,000 (preliminary)-18% above
components, or held on the ground be-
November and 3% above the forecast. Unit
cause of weather conditions.
production reached approximately 5,500
planes (up 14% from November and 3%
AND THEY'RE BIGGER
above the revised 8-L forecast), shoot-
Last year, 47,696 planes were pro-
ing past the 5,000-a-month rate promised
duced-two and a half times as many as
by the President. This was made possi-
in 1941. If the 1943 schedule is met,
ble by accelerated acceptances in the
output-in terms of units-will more
last three days of the month, which fol-
than double again this year. In terms
lowed a deep drop over Christmas.
of dollar value, itwill more than triple
(rising from $3,900,000,000 in 1942 to
NOT FLOWN AWAY_
$13,200,000,000 in 1943), because of
Also, planes in the "pool" increased
the increasing proportion of heavier,
by 665 over November, easily the larg-
costlier planes (WP-Janl'43,p5).
est such addition during 1942 (chart,
The major plane groups all made good
page 11). This "pool" consists of planes
showings during December as the follow-
accepted but not flown or shipped away
ing table, using dollar terms, indicates:
16 CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
PRODUCTION PROGRESS
Naval, Army, and Merchant Ships and Equipment (Continued)
Naval Torpedoes, Depth Charges,
Naval Equipment and Maintenance
and Mines
Including Signal Equipment
30
200
Forecost
#
150
20
Forecost
Actual
100
10
Actual
50
o
0
1942
1943
Merchant Ships - Total
Dry Cargo Vessels - Ocean Going
400
400
VALUE PUT IN PLACE - MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
Forecast
300
Forecast
300
200
Actual
200
Actual
100
100
VALUE PUT IN PLACE - MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
o
1942
1943
Tankers - Ocean Going
Other Merchant Vessels
75
25
Forecost
20
*
50
Forecost
15
IO
25
Actual
Actual
5
0
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
.
Volue in place based on delivery schedules on January 1, 1943
WAR PROGRESS
The Prevident
WAR PROGRESS
Confidential
(British Secret)
of (8)
m
Food to Russia - Chemical -
Warfare - Biography of a
Gun
Production Progress Tables
Number 128
February 26, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL
NUMBER 128
WAR PROGRESS
FEBRUARY 1943
Food First in U.S. Aid to Russia
Exports to U.S.S.R. last year were chiefly fight-
agricultural products exported under
ing stuff, but loss of the Ukraine has pinched
lend-lease; Russia only one-fifth. Rus-
food supplies severely, and Russians want
sia's share reached'a peak of $40,000,-
fats, meats, fruits, etc.
000 in April (40% of all food shipments)
but dropped to $8,000,000 or 13% by Au-
LAST YEAR, United States aid to Russia
gust. Since then shipments have been
consisted chiefly of fighting stuff.
rising steadily and in December totaled
Munitions (aircraft and parts, guns and
$35,000,000, or 37% of all lend-lease
ammunition, tanks and other vehicles)
agricultural exports. Though Russia's
accounted for about 60% of the total
share dropped last month, the Soviets
shipments in dollar value; industrial
get equal consideration with Great Brit-
goods (metals, machinery, etc.), for 25%;
ain in the assignment of food shipments.
foodstuffs, for only 15%. This year,
food willget the highest priority, with
CROP ACREAGE OVERRUN
trucks, machinery, and munitions next
For this there is good reason. Rus-
in importance.
sia's food situation has steadily de-
teriorated since the Nazis overran the
FOOD SHIPMENTS RISING
Ukraine, the Crimea, and North Caucasus.
Until now, Great Britain--which must
This region-the breadbasket of Russia
import half her food supply--has had the
--accounted for roughly 40% of the So-
first call on U.S. food surpluses. Thus,
viet's prewar crop acreage. In major
in 1942, the United Kingdom got about
items, it was even more important, pro-
three-fourths of the $980,000,000 of
ducing over 70% of the winter wheat,
CHANGED NOMENCLATURE
IN THIS ISSUE, War Progress introduces
the connotation of prediction, and is
new terminology in its Production Pro-
the actual term used by the Aircraft
gress charts and tables (pages 12 to 16).
Scheduling Unit.
The Statistics Division is sub-
The term "required production" is
stituting the word "schedule" for
a direct adaptation of Army phrase-
"forecast" and the phrase "required
ology. It is almost self-explaining:
production" for "objective."
How much new production is needed by
The term "forecast" has been fre-
a certain date to realize stated re-
quently misconstrued to signify a
quirements as of that date. For ex-
prediction or estimate of deliveries,
ample: If the Army has 1,000 tanks on
whereas in reality it is a statement
hand on December 31, 1942, and needs
of production plans, which might or
10,000 by the end of 1943, subtract
might not be realized. So "schedule"
the 1,000 from the 10,000 and you get
has been chosen. It does not carry
"required production" for 1943.
2,
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
80% of the sugar beets, and most of the
fare than in Germany. Thus, the meat
oilseeds.
ration for heavy workers in, Moscow is
Though the Red armies have ejected
78 ounces per month, compared with 105
the Nazis from the North Caucasus and
to 145 ounces in Germany; the fat ration
part of the Ukraine, equipment, seed,
is 28 ounces per month, compared with
and livestock necessary to cultivation
46 to 88 ounces in Germany. Last autumn,
have been destroyed or carried away.
light workers and dependents (children
So it will be some time before produc-
and housewives) in the Soviet capital
tion can be resumed.
could obtain no fats, and many persons
in other parts of the country, no meat
LEANER CIVILIAN DIET
or butter. Even potatoes--a major part
In unoccupied Russia, the agricultural
of the Russian diet--were not sold be-
situation is equally critical. Shortages
tween harvests. Milk, eggs, fish, and
of skilled labor, horses, and farm equip-
vegetables were quite scarce and, where
ment seriously hamper operations, es-
obtainable, fetched from 20 to 50 times
pecially harvesting. With the railroads
the established prices.
and highways overworked in carrying mil-
itary supplies, it is difficult to trans-
RED ARMY RATIONS
port agricultural products from farms
Virtually all U.S. food shipments are
to the cities. Moreover, food processing
directed to the Red Army (which, as in
plants in areas occupied by the Nazis
other countries, eats better than ci-
have been destroyed, or at best only
vilians) and consist largely of energy-
partially evacuated to safe areas. (And
giving items--fats, meat, sugar, oils,
millions of refugees have streamed into
dairy products, dried fruits and vege-
parts of Russia which were never self-
tables. In the 14 months from December,
sufficient in food.)
1941, through January, 1943, lend-lease
Consequently, after 20 months of war,
shipments to the U.S.S.R. included:
the average civilian gets much leaner
Tons
IN THIS ISSUE:
Wheat
160,000
FOOD FIRST IN U.S. AID TO RUSSIA
Sugar
113,000
1
Canned meat
123,000
CHANGED NOMENCLATURE
1
Other meat
74,000
SHAPE OF CROPS TO COME
Lard
3.4
52,000
BRIEF BIOGRAPHY OF A GUN
Vegetable oil
59,000
5
Cereals other than wheat &
FIGHTING GAS WITH GAS
7
wheat flour
39,000
GUIDE TO BATTLEFIELD CHEMISTRY
8
Dried fruits & vegetables
51,000
Cheese
3,000
KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK
9
Dried eggs
19,000
WAR PROGRESS NOTES
10
Butter
8,000
SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS
Dried milk & milk products.
7,000
11
PRODUCTION SUMMARY) PROGRESS TABLES (GENERAL
Two-thirds of all cargoes for the
12,14,16
Soviet Union have been carried on Amer-
PRODUCTION SUMMARY) PROGRESS CHARTS (GENERAL
ican ships, one-third onRussian vessels.
13,15
From November 1, 1941, to October 1, 1942,
FEBRUARY 26, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL 3
UPS AND DOWNS IN FARM PRODUCTION FOR '43
125
125
Among big-acre crops (over 12,000,000 acres) feed corn is due to jump; hay, oats, barley to
fall; cotton to decline slightly; wheat almost unchanged, but may rise as AAA limits are removed.
100
100
MILLIONS OF ACRES
75
75
Actual
Gool
1942
1943
50
50
MILLIONS OF ACRES
25
25
0
0
Corn
Wheat
Grain Sorghum
Hay
Octs
Cotton
Borley
15
15
In middle range (2,000,000 to 12,000,000 acres) oil-content crops to jump; likewise potatoes
and dry beans; rye slated to fall.
10
10
MILLIONS OF ACRES
5
5
MILLIONS OF ACRES
Actual
Goal
1942
1943
O
o
Soy Beans
Flaxseed
Peanuts
Dry Beans
Potatoes
Hay-Crop Seeds
Rye
2.0
2.0
Among small acre crops, tobaccos, sweet potatoes and peas are up; sugar-content crops virtually
unchanged; rice goes down- according to Department of Agriculture "goals" for '43.
1.5
1.5
MILLIONS OF ACRES
10
I.O
Actual
Goal
1942
1943
MILLIONS OF ACRES
05
05
o
0
Tobacco
Sweet
Dry Peos
Sugar Beets
Sugar Cone
Rice
Pototoes
WAR PROGRESS
UAL CROPS FELL FAR SHORT OF QUOTAS: PEANUTS, 26%:
Shape of Crops to Come
DRY PEAS, 25%; DRY BEANS, 18%; SWEET POTATOES, 17%;
POTATOES, 9%; FRESH-MARKET TRUCK CROPS, 8%.
THE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE HAS SET 354,274,000
ATTAINMENT OF GOALS DEPENDS ON VOLUNTARY COOPER-
ACRES AS THE 1943 CROP GOAL-LESS THAN 1% OVER THE
ATION OF THE NATION'S 6,000,000-000 FARMERS. THE
1942 GOAL AND LESS THAN 2% OVER ACREAGE ACTUALLY
DEPARTMENT SETS NATIONAL QUOTAS, THEN SUB-QUOTAS
PLANTED LAST YEAR. ALTHOUGH OVERALL ACREAGE WAS
TO STATES, COUNTIES, AND INDIVIDUAL FARMS. THE
CLOSE TO THE AGGREGATE GOAL LAST YEAR, SOME INDIVID-
DEPARTMENT'S AGENTS THEN ATTEMPT TO GET FARMERS TO
4
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
some 17% of the 1,745 voyages made by of the world. But fewer food than mu-
American dry-cargo shipswith lend-lease
nition cargoes have been sunk.
materials were bound for Russia. How-
In the current year, lend-lease food
ever, as with other lend-lease goods,
exports to Russia will increase greatly
more food was available than could be
if more ships become available, de-
shipped.
spite the possibility of shorter U.S.
Losses in convoys to Russia have been
supplies in some major items (chart,
heavier than in convoys to other parts
Page 3).
I2 LEADING TRUCK CROPS - - 1942 VS. 1943
300
300
These acredges are expected to increase,
200
THOUSANDS OF ACRES
200
Gool
1943
Actual
1942
100
100
THOUSANDS OF ACRES
0
0
Tomatoes
Cobboge
Snop Beans
Onions
Carrots
Peas (green)
250
250
And these are expected to decline.
200
200
THOUSANDS OF ACRES
150
Actual
150
1942
Gool
1943
100
100
THOUSANDS OF ACRES
50
50
0
0
Watermelons
Strowberries
Lettuce
Contaloupes
Asparogus
Spinoch
WAR PROGRESS
OVER. DECLINES ARE SLATED FOR SOME GRAINS: OATS,
Shape of Crops to Come (Cont.)
13%; BARLEY, 7%; RYE, 6%.
AGRICULTURAL GOALS FOR LEADING TRUCK CROPS CALL
PLANT CROPS IN ACCORD WITH THIS OVERALL PLAN.
FOR INCREASED ACREAGE IN ITEMS WITH HIGH NUTRITIVE
GOALS FOR '43, IF ATTAINED, WILL MEAN SUBSTAN-
VALUES (MINERALS, VITAMINS, ETC.); SMALLER, BUT
TIAL INCREASES IN ACREAGES OF KEY WARTIME CROPS:
STILL SÜBSTANTIAL, ACREAGES FOR THOSE LOW IN THE
PEANUTS, 49%; DRY BEANS, 55%; DRY PEAS, 45%: SWEET
SCALE OF FOOD VALUE-FOR INSTANCE, CANTALOUPES,
POTATOES, 42%; GRAIN SORGHUMS, 23%; SEED FOR HAY
WATERMELON. LETTUCE, WHICH ARE RATED *LESS ESSEN-
CROPS, 39%.
TIAL FARM PRODUCTS" IN THE LIST PREPARED BY THE DE-
TOBACCO IS ALSO SLATED TO RISE. COTTON ACREAGE
PARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE TO GUIDE DRAFT BOARDS IN
SHOWS ONLY A SMALL DROP (3%) DESPITE A HEAVY CARRY-
DEFERRING AGRICULTURAL OPERATORS AND WORKERS.
FEBRUARY 26, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL
5
Brief Biography of a Gun
20mm. aircraft cannon mirrors typical prob-
at 3,600 units, all to be built by Ben-
lems in war output. Slow to start, it soon
dix.
The first gun was supposed to
outsped its ammunition; but now it's sto-
have been produced by May, 1941, but
bilized with strategic needs.
actually did not appear until August.
Meanwhile, the number of suppliers
IN THE LIFE STORY of any given gun in
was increased to four by the addition
the U.S. armament program, you are like-
of the Olds Motor Division of General
ly to find a reflection of the whole war
Motors, the Munitions Manufacturing
production saga--the delayed start, the
Company (a subsidiary of International
better-than-hoped-for acceleration of
Business Machines), and International
production when once under way, the
Harvester. It's the typical case of
peril of imbalance with complementary
the widening periphery of war produc-
items not doing so well, and the shift-
tion.
ing dictates of strategy as battle ex-
perience grows.
PRODUCTION LEAPS
The 20mm. aircraft cannon, account-
Although Bendix got into production
ing for 21% of the value of the aircraft
of the Hisso first, most of the 1,395
armament program for 1943, but less than
guns turned out in 1941 were made by
1% of the total 1943 ordnance program,
Olds. In 1942 production leaped up to
is a case in point.
62,000 guns, with Olds manufacturing
over half of the total. Monthly out-
WHAT "HISSO" CAN DO
put increased 200%-to a peak rate of
The vital statistics on this gun-a
7,650 units--between January, 1942, and
Hispano-Suiza called "Hisso" for short
January, 1943, as the four manufactur-
--follow: The effective range is 600-
ing firms gained know-how. Raw material
800 yards. It fires the smallest U.S.
problems were apparently not serious
high explosive projectile (less than a
and the 20mm. manufacturers were unusu-
third of a pound) at a potential rate
ally fortunate in obtaining machine
of 500-600 rounds a minute. It delivers
tools. (Makers of many other types of
almost three pounds of projectiles per
ordnance were held back by lack of tools.)
second at 600 yards, nearly twice the
poundage delivered by the .50 caliber
CHECK AND BALANCE
machine gun. Its armor-piercing shell
Early last summer, production was
is used not only against planes but
moving ahead so rapidly in relation to
against railroad trains and even small
the goal that it was decided to switch
ships. The Hisso fires through the hub
over some facilities to the manufacture
of the propeller or can be wing mounted.
of other ordnance items. In accordance
with this plan, Munitions Manufacturing
DEVELOPED IN EUROPE
Company's facilities are being diverted
The 20mm. aircraft cannon was devel-
after February. And production of the
oped in Europe during the 1930s.
Our
Hissos, starting in March, will stabi-
Army adopted it as a standard weapon
lize at around 6,600 guns a month, com-
in 1941, and a pilot model was built.
pared with 7,653 in January.
On
this
Early in 1941 production was scheduled
basis, production this year will total
6 CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
around 80,000 guns, a rise of 22% over
objectives have been reduced, require-
1942.
ments for these guns have been cut also.
The 20mm. aircraft cannon is an im-
In the meantime, however, facilities had
portant international-aid item. Of the
been devised and production plans set
guns so far completed, some 70% have been
at the higher level.
or will be shipped to foreign air forces.
Another 20% is in storage awaiting as-
MORE CANNON ON PLANES
signment, presumably to U.S. forces.
But stockpiling of the 20mm. aircraft
The Army Air Force is using only 8% and
cannon fits in with plans for install-
the Navy 2%. This is partly explained
ing more cannon on bomber and fighter
by the fact that while production of
planes both here and in Great Britain.
the gun was doubling the goal last year,
The 20mm. is already mounted on our
only 49% of the ammunition objective
twin-engined pursuits and on several
was turned out. Shortages of brass strip
types of light, medium, and heavy bomb-
were involved in the ammunition lag.
ers. The British use them on Beau-
This may be ameliorated if large scale
fighters, Spitfires, Hurricanes, etc.,
substitution of steel for copper takes
and the Germans are known to mount 20mm.
place later this year.
cannon on recent-model Messerschmitts
Moreover, original plans for produc-
and Focke-Wulfs.
tion of the 20mm. aircraft cannon were
As more and more armor is put on com-
based on the President's January, 1942,
bat planes, the necessity for using the
objectives of 60,000 planes in 1942 and
heavier fire power and explosive shell
125,000 planes in 1943. Now that plane
of the small aircraft cannon grows.
LOG OF THE 20mm. AIRCRAFT CANNON
8000
8000
6000
Initial deliveries by Munitions Manufacturing Co
6000
NUMBER OF GUNS PRODUCED
and International Horvester Co.
Munitions Manufacturing Co. converts focilities
to other armament work
4000
4000
2000
Initial deliveries by Bendix
Initial deliveries by Olds
Cuttack in schedule to bring
production closer to 1942 requirements
Plans changed to build up inventories;
cutbock abondoned
NUMBER OF GUNS PRODUCED
2000
Tooling In
0
0
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
o
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
5
o
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
5
0
N
D
1941
1942
1943
WAR PROGRESS
FEBRUARY 26, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL
7
Presumably more and more United Nations
sense of the term, chemical warfare in-
planes will be cannon equipped, and on
volves use of lethal gases, screening
older types cannon may, to some extent,
smokes, and flame and incendiary chem-
replace the heavy (.50 caliber) machine
icals. And it is fought with weapons
guns.
and ammunition. Some of the weapons--
notably the 4.2-inch chemical mortar, the
Canadian-produced 2-inch bomb thrower,
Fighting Gas with Gas
and the portable flame thrower--are spe-
Army equipped to protect against chemical war-
cifically for chemical warfare purposes,
fare - and to retaliate in kind. Output of
but gas and smoke shells are also made
chemical munitions exceeds goal in 1942;
for use with standard artillery pieces
from 75mm. to 155mm.
scheduled to triple this year.
ONE OUT OF EVERY FOUR American casual-
COCKTAILS FOR TANKS
ties in the first World War was caused
Gas, smoke, and incendiary aircraft
by chemicals--mainly in poison-gas form
bombs and hand grenades (including the
--and the U.S. Army workson the theory
frangible gas- and oil-filled glass
that the best precaution against chem-
bottle type especially suited for use
ical warfare attack is to be prepared
against tanks) are also produced in large
for ample defense, coupled with quick
numbers. Smoke and lethal gases are dis-
retaliation.
charged from portable chemical cylinders
(used only when the wind is toward the
PRODUCTION TALKS
enemy) as well as from chemical land
Last year, the Army backed up this
mines and from spray tanks mounted under
philosophy with the production of well
the wings or in the bomb-bays of air-
over $200,000,000 worth of chemical war-
planes. Smoke pots and large slow-burn-
fare service weapons, ammunition, agents,
ing "candles" are also used. Naval ves-
equipment, and supplies. Not large rel-
sels employ special smoke-screen equip-
ative to total munitions, this output
ment; and smoke shells are fired from
was nevertheless greater than the value
naval guns for screening purposes.
of our 1942 wheeled artillery produc-
tion, for example, or of our submarine
MUSTARD AND LEWISITE
deliveries.
Foremost among the chemical agents
This $200,000,000 value includes gas
in terms of production is mustard gas
masks, grenades, and certain other items
which, along with lewisite, is the most
procured by the Chemical Warfare Service
deadly of the standard warfare gases.
for the Navy and for international aid.
Mustard gas (nicknamed "hot stuff") eats
But while: it includes agents for artil-
away the skin as well as the lungs and
lery gas and smoke shells which are in
other membranes; it may persist for months
heavy production, it does not include
in woods, dugouts, and other confined
the shells themselves. Nor does it in-
areas. Lewisite, though less persistent,
clude civilian-defense gas masks and
is similar in its action to mustard, and
other equipment designed by the Chemi-
takes effect sooner (table, page 8).
cal Warfare Service but procured by the
Phosgene, which is also in substantial
OCD.
production, is less lethal but affects
All modern warfare, of course, is based
personnel immediately. Sulphur trioxide
on chemicals. But in the restricted
(second only to mustard gas in terms of
8. CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
GUIDE TO BATTLEFIELD CHEMISTRY
NAME
SYMBOL,
NICKNAME
FORM
ODOR
PHYSIOLOG-
PROTEC-
PERSIS-
ICAL EFFECT
TION
TENCE
TACTICAL USES
Mustard
HS
Gas
Garlic
Burns skin,
Mask,
Open 1 day,
Hot Stuff
Horseradish
Neutralize areas
membrane. De-
Cloth-
woods 1 wk.
Mustard
layed effect
Counter-battery
ing
toall winter
Personnelattack
Lewisite
MI
Gas
Geraniums
Irritates na-
Mask,
Open 1. day,
Mustard
Similar to
sal passages.
Cloth-
woods 1 wk.
mustard
Imitator
Later: burns,
ing
poisons
Ethyldi-
ED
Gas
Bitlng
Blisters, sores;
Mask,
1 hour
chlorarsine
Enemy's
Stinging
paralysis of
Counter-battery
Cloth-
Delight
Preparation fire
hands
ing
Harassing fire
Chlor-
PS
Gas
Flypaper
Coughing, cry-
Mask
picrin
Open 6 hours,
Puking
Anise
Harassing fire
ing, vomiting
woods 12
Stuff
hours
Diphos-
DP
Gas
Ensilage
Coughing,
Mask
gene
Di-Phos
30 min.
Acrid
Harassing fire
painful breath-
ing, watery
eyes
Phosgene
CG
Gas
Musty hay
Irritates
Mask
Choky-Gas
10-30 min.
Green corn
Surpriseattacks
lungs. Causes
Gas-cloud re-
dopiness
lease
For quick effect
Cloraceto-
CN
Gas
Apple
phenone
Smarting eyes,
Mask
10 min.
Cry Now
blossoms
Training.Mob
tears.
control. Forces
Temporary
mask wear
Brombenzyl-
CA
Gas
Sour fruit
cyanide
Smarting eyes,
Mask
Cry Always
Several days
Neutralize areas
tears, Effect
(MoΓe in
lasts some
Counter-battery
winter)
time
Adamsite
DM
Gas
Coal smoke
Sneezing:
Mask
Dirty
10 min.
Gas-cloud
sick,depressed
Mixture
attacks
feeling
Mob control
Sneeze Gas
DS
Smoke
Shoe polish
Dirty
Sneezing,
Mask
5 min.
Harassing,
tears
Smoke
screening
HC Mixture
HC
Smoke
Sharp
Harmless
Harmless
None
While
Acrid
Screen small
Cloud
burning
operations;
training pur-
poses
Sulphur
FS
Smoke
Trioxide
Burning
Fuming
Prickling of
Mask
5-10 min.
matches
Airplane spray
skin; tears
Spray
for screen on
broad front
Titanium
FM
Smoke
Acrid
Tetra-
Harmless
Floating
None
10 min.
Screening
chloride
Mant
Diphenyl-
DA
Smoke
Not
chlorarsine
Dopey Ache
Sick feeling:
Mask
pronounced
Summer,
Harassing fire
headache
10 min.
White
WP
Smoke
Phosphorus
Burning
White Phos.
Burning pieces
None
10 min.
matches
Screen advancing
adhere to skin,
Avail-
troops; incen-
clothing
able
diary effects,
losses
Thermit
TH.
Incen-
The Heat
Intense heat
diary
Cover of
5 min.
Destroys
ignites ma-
earth,
materiel
terials
sand
Chlorine
CL
Gas
Highly
Chlorine
Lung irri-
Mask
10 min.
pungent
Surprise
tant
attacks
JANUARY 8, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL. 11
THE AIRCRAFT POOL
Each month the Army and Navy accept planes not fully equipped or tested.
These go into a "pool." And last month, the pool
2200
2200
60
60
1. Rose to 0 new high in number
2. And continued a four-month
2000
of planes,
2000
irregulor uptrend as % of month-
ly production.
50
50
1800
1800
NUMBER OF PLANES
1600
1600
Number of Planes in Pool
1400
NUMBER OF PLANES
% OF MONTHLY ACCEPTANCES
Pool os %
of Monthly Acceptances
40
40
1400
% OF MONTHLY ACCEPTANCES
1200
1200
30
30
1000
1000
800
M
800
20
$
20
D J F M A M J J A S 0 N D
D J F M A M J J A S o N D
1941
1942
1941
1942
WAR PROGRESS
% Change
be
Deviation
connected with new models, fell 18% be-
from Nov.
from Forecast
low forecast and barely gained over
Total planes
+18%
+3%
November.
Combat
+16
+2
Output of the pursuit group climbed
Service combat. +26
-8
10% above November and 6% above the
Trainer
+32
+24
schedule. The twin-motored P-38 (Light-
ning), which has proved its mettle in
Bombers moved up 18% over November
North Africa, was 13% ahead of November,
"
and slightly exceeded the forecast. The
4% ahead of schedule. Republic's P-47
"
four-engined bombers were again the star
was practically on schedule. Navy fight-
performers. The B-17s (Flying Fortresses)
ers, which did well in former months,
were way ahead of schedule, as usual.
fell 7% behind schedule.
Other good news: Ford's Willow Run
The first of the stainless steel basic
plant exceeded itsrevised schedule (down
trainers BT-12 (WP-Decl8'42,p10), sched-
sharply from expectations last spring)
uled for November, was delivered last
for B-24s (Liberators) for the second
month.
month in a row. Moreover, the first
Boeing B-29s (four-engined bombers, al-
War Progress Notes
most twice as heavy in airframe weight
as the Forts) were accepted.
MORE MONEY
INDIVIDUALS had more money to spend and
LIGHT BOMBERS HAMPERED
more money to save last year than in
Medium bombers were up13% above Nov-
any previous year. Income payments, at
ember and 11% above the schedule. But
around $114,000,000,000, were one-third
light bomber output, hampered by con-
higher than in 1941, and despite a 60%
version of several types and by problems
jump in taxes, disposable incomes rose
FEBRUARY 26, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL
9
1942 output) is one of the most effective
still indeterminate because of uncertain
standard agents for creating large-scale
allocations of the necessary magnesium.
smoke screens. These agents, among
Performance among other groups was
others, were used in the last war; cer-
somewhat varied: While agents (includ-
tain new screening and toxic smokes and
ing mustard) more than met the objective,
gases are now under experiment.
certain gas masks and smoke grenades
were somewhat below objective. So were
PROTECTIVE 01NTMENTS
cluster smoke bombs, 100-pound incen-
Finally, chemical warfare requires
diary and 6-pound oil incendiary bombs,
protective and service equipment of many
airplane spray tanks, and floating smoke
kinds. Gas masks are made in several
pots used to screen landings and other
types, with total unit output for 1942
water operations.
measured in the millions. Hundreds of
Efforts are being made to reme / onis
tons of protective ointment for the skin
imbalance by the end of 1943. Anu ex-
are being turned out. Decontaminating
cept for the 4-pound incendiary bomb,
agents and apparatus, including hand and
production should meet the 1943 objec-
power-driven sprays, are produced on a
tive. (This has been considerably re-
large scale.
duced in the February Army Supply Pro-
Output of chemical warfare munitions
gram, along with the general cutback in
was slightly in excess of the objective
ground army and related munitions.)
for 1942, except for the 4-pound incen-
diary bomb. This important item (valued
DISCOURAGING THE AXIS
at nearly one-quarter of 1942 deliveries
Thus, unless the enemy's technology
of Chemical Warfare Service items) met
should developnew and more deadly agents,
only a little over half the requirement,
it appears that the Army's mobilization
largely because of design difficulties.
for chemical warfare, coupled with the
And 1943 schedules for this bomb are
production potential of the world's
KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK
Lotest
Preceding
Month
6 Months
Year
Week
Week
Ago
Ago
Ago
War program Checks paid (millions of dollars)
1,527
1,395
1,123
1,108
592
Wor bond soles (millions of dollors)
212
220
279
143
160
Commodity prices (August 1939=100)
28 Bosic commodities
175.3
174.7
174.0
166.8
165.2
Controlled
162.1
162.0
162.0
161.4
162.0
Uncontrolled
208.7
206.8
204.5
180.5
173.3
Nonferrous metal scrop
117.5
117.3
117.5
118.3
131.5
Textile scrap
170.7
172.9
172.5
171.4
175.2
Petroleum carloadings (no. of tank cors)
Total
51,986
52,197
53,631
55,867
49,872
Movement into East
26,152
27,168
26,520
27,694
7.987
Exports (no. of freight cors unloaded for export Friday)
Atlantic Coost ports
1,226
1,514
1,212
1,574
1,649
Gulf Coost ports
398
335
328
330
406
Pocific Coost ports
980
906
848
711
309
Unused steel capacity (% operations below capacity)
1.1
0.5
1.4
2.7
3.7
10
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
largest chemical industry, will make
ill equipped to cope with poison gas.
poison-gas tactics unprofitable to the
And our exportsof chemical warfare mu-
enemy. But this qualification is nec-
nitions are very limited--less than 5%
essary:
Certain of our allies remain
of 1942 production.
War Progress Notes.
ers, and 25% by persons not engaged di-
GUNS vs. BIRDS
rectly in war work.
NONESSENTIAL CONSTRUCTION, large and
Examples of in-migrant occupancy of
small, is being whittled to the bone by
68,000 homes in 137 defense areas fol-
programming agencies and by the WPB. low:
In the last three months, projects to-
taling $1,215,000,000--equivalent to 9%
% Defense Homes
of total war construction in 1942-have
Occupied By In-migrants
been stopped to free materials, equip-
Renting Buying Total
ment, and manpower for more essential
Leesville, La
89%
0%
89%
uses. Greatest savings resulted from
Joplin, Mo
86
1
87
stopping WPA projects totaling $413,-
Phoenix, Ariz
54
20
74
000,000; power and irrigation projects,
Mobile, Ala
22
43
65
$348,000,000; less essential army and
Columbia, S.C
51
2
53
navy projects, $348,000,000. Also elim-
Vallejo, Cal
2
47
49
inated: scheduled bird refuges at $2,-
Atlanta, Ga
23
20
43
700,000.
Baton Rouge, La.
12
31
43
Troy, N.Y
23
0
23
HOUSING WAR WORKERS
Cleveland, 0
15
4
19
TO HELP RELIEVE housing congestion in
Brooklyn, N.Y
2
3
5
crowded war production areas, the War
Waterbury, Conn.
1
4
5
Production Board about ayear ago offered
Average
18
10
28
special priorities to builders--A-2rat-
ings on homes to be offered for rent;_
To get back to the original objective
A-5 on homes to be sold. The objective
--of seeing that incoming war workers
was to provide places to live for new-
get homes-the War Production Board and
comers to war-work areas (technically
the National Housing Agency have speci-
called in-migrant workers).
fied that war housing priorities can
But a survey just completed reveals
only be granted to builders of homes for
that only 28% of the homes completed
rental to in-migrant war workers. How-
between June 1 and November 1, 1942,
ever, the house may be sold to the war-
with priority assistance are occupied
worker occupant after four months' rent-
by in-migrant families having war-worker
al.
Compliance is enforceable by the
members-18% on rentals; 10% through
power to revoke priorities or institute
purchase. In some areas, such as Canton,
criminal proceedings.
0., and Pontiac, Mich., not a single
privately built home had been rented to
PRICE AND QUALITY
in-migrants. The survey also showed
OPA is trying to tie in minimum stand-
that 47% of these homes were occupied
ards with maximum prices even where sub-
by local, and not in-migrant, war work-
stitute materials are used. For ex-
FEBRUARY 26, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL.. 11
ample, it has designated 16 laboratories
to replace the hog bristles formerly
throughout the country as official test-
imported from China-is casein, obtained
ers of wooden springs which have been
from skimmed milk. Large quantities of
substituted in furniture pieces. And
skimmed milk are fed to livestock, usu-
producers of new model fireplace grates
ally pigs. (The 39,000,000,000 pounds
must label them with the retail ceiling
used for that purpose in 1940 would be
price and also provide the buyer with a
sufficient to produce much more than
guarantee of performance. Without the
enough "milk" bristles to fill 1943's
guarantee, the maximum price must be
requirements for paint brushes.) So
reduced by 15%.
far, nylon has proved the best of the
synthetics for the job because (1) it
CASEIN BRISTLES
doesn't fray, (2) it can be tapered
NOW in pilot plant production is a new
properly, and (3) it stands up under the
synthetic bristle suitable for use in
chemical action of paint solvents. Nylon,
paint brushes. Basic raw material for
however, is being used largely for mil-
turning out the product--which was de-
itary purposes, especially parachute
veloped by the Department of Agriculture manufacture.
SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS
Transportation-Prices-Cost of Living-Labor Disputes-Employment
Some
Some
Lotest
Preceding
2 Months
6 Months
Year
Month
Month
Month
Month
Ago
Ago
Ago
1940
1938
TRANSPORTATION-COMMODITY AND
PASSENGER (1935-39=100)
193
r198
r205
182
146
109
97
Commodity
183
r195
r204
182
147
109
93
Passenger
224
r209
208
181
143
108
109
WHOLESALE COMMODITY PRICES
ALL COMMODITIES (1926=100)
p101.9
p101.0
100.3
98.7
96.0
79.4
80.9
Form products
117.0
113.8
110.5
105.3
100.8
69.1
71.6
Food products
105.2
104.3
103.5
99.2
93.7
71.7
76.3
Other than form products and foods
p96.0
p95.9
95.8
95.7
94.6
83.9
53.5
COST OF LIVING-ALL ITEMS
120.6
120.4
119.8
117.0
112.0
99.5
101.8
(1935-39=100)
Food
133.0
132.7
131.1
124.6
116.2
94.8
99.7
Other than food
114.2
114.1
114.1
113.2
109.8
102.0
102.9
LABOR DISPUTES
Number of strikes in progress
225
200
225
520
255
222
.288
Workers involved (thousands)
100
61
65
100
49
41
n.a.
Mon-days idle (thousands)
450
200
175
450
390
247
473
NONAGRIC. EMPLOYMENT-TOTAL(thous
P37,906
38,942
38,533
37.234
34,876
29,744
28,085
Manufacturing-Total
p15,719
15,684
15,434
14,641
13,468
10,453
9,295
Durable goods
p9,180
8,971
8,751
8,082
7,138
4,871
4,108
Nonduroble goods
p6,539
6,683
6,707
6,559
6,530
5,582
5,187
Government
p5.730
5,811
5,723
5,184
4,558
3,984
3,857
Other
p16,457
17,447
17,376
17,409
16,850
15,307
14,933
January, except for transportation, December. Unadjusted: figures for 1940 and 1938 refer to 1939 and 1937
respectively. n.a. Not available. P Preliminary. F Revised.
12
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
PRODUCTION PROGRESS
General Summary (Value of production, in millions of dollars)
Total
Total
Total
Total
Miscel.
Munitions &
Program
Munitions
Construction
Munitions
Construction
Valuation of
1942
1942
Valuation of
Actual
1st Quarter Avg.
2,703
2,242
1,556
686
410
1st Quarter Avg.
Actual
Production
2nd Quarter Avg.
4,137
3,458
2,340
1,118
573
2nd Quarter Avg.
Production
3rd Quarter Avg.
5,403
4,626
3,080
1,546
662
3rd Quarter Avg.
October
5,701
4,834
3,385
1,449
663
October
November
6,084
5,184
3,831
1,353
723
November
December
6,571
5,592
4,376
1,216
812
December
1943
1943
January
6,176
5,161
4,013
1,148
759
January
Valuation of
February
5,943
4,749
1,194
829
February
Valuation of
Schedules
March
6,376
5,181
1,195
875
March
Schedules*
April
6,697
5,544
1,153
889
April
May
6,976
5,877
1,099
898
May
June
7,213
6,187
1,026
895
June
July
7.366
6,453
913
903
July
August
7,463
6,654
809
891
August
September
7,486
6,761
725
885
September
October
7.540
6,857
683
888
October
November
7.572
6,926
646
895
November
December
7.603
6,990
613
909
December
1942 Actual
55,090
46,592
32,520
14,072
7,123
1942 Actual
1943 Schedule*
83,396
72,192
11,204
10,516
1943 Schedule
1943 Req. Prod.
83,090
71,886
11,204
11,096
1943 Req. Prod.
1943 Schedule 0s% of Req. Prod.
1943 Schedule os % of Req. Prod.
Aircraft &
Ground
Naval and
Combat
Aircraft
Merchant
Munitions(a)
Army
ArmyVessels
Vessels
Munitions
Munitions(b)
& Equip.
Valuation of
1942
1942
Valuation of
Actual
1st Quarter Avg.
1,146
453
263
340
90
1st Quarter Avg.
Actual
Production
2nd Quarter Avg.
1,767
648
444
521"
154
2nd Quarter Avg.
Production
3rd Quarter Avg.
2,419
838
662
712
206
3rd Quarter Avg.
October
2,722
936
759
836
191
October
November
3,108
1,113
857
898
240
November
December
3.564
1.338
1,070
895
261
December
1943
1943
January
3,254
1,307
831
861
255
January
Voluation of
February
3,920
1,592
954
1,034
340
February
Valuation of
Schedules*
March
4,306
1,755
1,121
1,075
355
March
Schedules*
April
4,655
1,954
1,211
1,130
360
April
May
4,979
2,156
1,298
1,163
362
May
June
5,292
2,356
1,382
1,193
361
June
July
5,550
2,529
1,472
1,195
354
July
August
5,763
2,638
1,584
1,190
351
August
September
5.876
2,753
1,595
1,176
352
September
October
5,969
2,886
1,573
1,154
356
October
November
6,031
2,990
1,550
1,131
360
November
December
6,081
3,079
1,531
1,108
363
December
1942 Actual
25,397
9,208
6,792
7,355
2,042
1942 Actual
1943 Schedule
61,676
27,995
16,102
13,410
4,169
1943 Schedule
1943 Req. Prod.
60,790
28,276
14,721
13,624
4,169
1943 Req. Prod.
1
1943 Schedule as% of Req. Prod.
1943 Schedule os % of Req. Prod.
Note: Schedulen An of Feb. 1 for aircraft and aircraft munitions, ground army munitions, and other S. O. S. Items:
nº of Jon. 1 for All others. Army "chedules are in process of revision. TSince Army schedules Are being
revised to zeet the new Supply Program. connarison of present schedules with required production are not valid.
(n) Includes aircraft and Aircraft munitions, cround army and ground signal equipment; nevel, army, and merchant
veganle: excludes miscellaneous munitions. (b) Ground army ordnance and cround signal equinment.
FEBRUARY 26, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL. 13
PRODUCTION PROGRESS
General Summary - Munitions, Construction, Miscellaneous
Total War Program
Total Munitions and Construction
8000
8000
Schedule
6000
6000
Actual
Actual
4000
4000
2000
2000
o
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
Total Munitions
Total Construction
VALUE DELIVERED OR PUT IN PLACE-MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
8000
2000
1600
Actual
6000
Schedule
1200
4000
Schedule
Actual
800
2000
VALUE DELIVERED OR PUT IN PLACE-MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
400
o
o
1942
1943
1942
1943
Combot Munitions
*
Miscellaneous Munitions *
8000
1000
Schedule
800
6000
Actual
Schedule
600
4000
400
Actual
2000
200
Includes aircroft and dircroft munitions; ground
army ordnonce and ground signal equipment,
novol, army, and merchant ships and equipment
Automotive vehicles, clothing and personal equipment
o
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
WAR PROGRESS
14
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
PRODUCTION PROGRESS,
Aircraft-Ordnance (Value of production, in millions of dollars)
Combat
Aircraft
Aircraft
Artillery
Artillery &
TankCannon
Planes
Armament
Ammunition
& Equip.
Ammunition
Valuation of
1942
1942
Valuation of
Actual
1st Quarter Avg.
180
17
33
23
54
1st Quarter Avg.
Actual
Production
2nd Quarter Avg.
233
27
45
33
90
2nd Quarter Avg.
Production
3rd Quarter Avg
294
29
57
52
110
3rd Quarter Avg.
October
313
33
66
66
107
October
November
368
37
76
97
126
November
December
425
40
101
121
106
December
1943
1943
January
366
37
86
105
82
January
Valuation of
February
515
37
85
122
72
February
Valuation of
Schedules
March
593
40
106
132
110
March
Schedules*
April
685
39
130
148
135
April
May
784
41
146
146
167
May
June
897
43
157
147
190
June
July
1,005
46
156
144
220
July
August
1,101
50
156
155
273
August
September
1,200
50
153
155
274
September
October
1,299
48
148
153
272
October
November
1,359
46
147
149
272
November
December
1,397
45
146
144
272
December
1942 Actual
3.227
328
648
606
1,102
1942 Actual
1943 Schedule*
11,201
522
1,616
1,700
2,339
1943 Schedule*
1943 Req. Prod.
11,201
541
1,780
1,328
1.747
1943 Req. Prod.
1943 Schedule as % of Req. Prod.
1943 Schedule os % of Req Prod.
Antiaircraft
Small Arms
Antiaircraft
Small Arms
Ammunition
& Infantry
& Infantry
Combat
Guns &
Weapon
Vehicles
Equip.
Weapons
Ammunition
Valuation of
1942
1942
Valuation of
Actual
1st Quarter Avg.
18
12
16
42
88
1st Quarter Avg.
Actual
Production
2nd Quarter Avg.
39
21
28
81
124
2nd Quarter Avg.
Production
3rd Quarter Avg.
76
30
37
118
176
3rd Quarter Avg.
October
95
15
44
135
212
October
November
95
17
49
138
239
November
December
109
24
55
168
399
December
1943
1943
January
110
19
54
178
211
January
Valuation of
February
113
18
53
166
272
February
Valuation of
Schedules
March
129
25
58
189
317
March
Schedules
April
137
29
64
214
349
April
May
142
32
71
239
359
May
June
143
35
76
264
372
June
July
155
41
75
290
363
July
August
184
43
79
324
356
August
September
195
42
79
325
357
September
October
178
42
80
322
364
October
November
165
43
80
316
370
November
December
160
43
81
309
375
December
1942 Actual
701
246
388
1,162
2,014
1942 Actual
1943 Schedule"
1,811
412
850
3,136
4,065
1943 Schedule
1943 Req. Prod.
1,625
453
800
3,185
3.738
1943 Req. Prod.
1943 Schedule as % of Req. Prod.
1943 Schedule as % of Req. Prod.
Note: Schedules All of Pob. 1 for aircraft and aircraft munitions, ground army munitions, and other S. 0. S. items:
as of Jan. 1 for all others.
"Argy schedules are in process of revision, +Since Army schedules are being revised to meet the new Supply Pro-
gran, comparison of present schedules with required production are not valid.
FEBRUARY 26, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL. 15
PRODUCTION PROGRESS
Selected Items - - Aircraft, Ground Army, Ships
Aircraft and Aircraft Munitions
Ground Army Munitions
*
4000
2000
1600
3000
Schedule
Schedule
1200
2000
800
Actual
Actual
1000
400
Ground army ordnance and ground signal equipment
O
O
1942
1943
1942
1943
Merchant Vessels
Naval and Army Vessels and Equipment
VALUE DELIVERED OR PUT IN PLACE PLACE-MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
400
1500
Schedule
300
Schedule
1000
Actual
Actual
200
500
100
VALUE DELIVERED OR PUT IN PLACE MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
O
o
1942
1943
1942
1943
Major Combot Vessels
Minor Combat Vessels
250
400
Schedule
200
Schedule
Actual
300
150
200
100
Actual
100
50
0
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
WAR PROGRESS
16
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
PRODUCTION PROGRESS
Ships-Construction-Miscellaneous(Value put in place, in millions of dollars)
Battleships,
Sub-
Antisub-
Transports
Cruisers &
Destroyers
marines
marine
(Army,Navy)
Carriers
Vessels
Valuation of
1942
1942
Valuation of
Actual
1st Quarter Avg
62
67
20
44
1
1st Quarter Avg.
Actual
Production
2nd Quarter Avg.
73
75
20
77
6
2nd Quarter Avg.
Production
3rd Quarter Avg.
71
76
23
97
10
3rd Quarter Avg.
October
84
82
23
130
12
October
November
77
88
22
127
16
November
December
76
73
25
124
16
December
1943
1943
January
75
72
24
146
11
January
Valuation of
February
83
79
24
270
22
February
Valuation of
Schedules*
March
81
82
27
299
24
March
Schedules*
April
77
86
29
329
25
April
May
74
90
31
351
26
May
June
78
93
33
370
27
June
July
84
92
37
378
28
July
August
90
90
41
380
27
August
September
92
88
43
378
28
September
October
94
87
45
366
27
October
November
96
86
45
349
27
November
December
101
84
46
331
26
December
1942 Actual
856
897
260
1,034
96
1942 Actual
1943 Schedule
1,025
1,029
425
3,947
298
1943 Schedule*
1943 Req. Prod.
1,025
1,029
425
3,947
298
1943 Req. Prod.
1
1943 Schedule os % of Req. Prod.
1943 Schedule os % of Req. Prod.
Landing
Industrial
Aircraft
Clothing &
Automotive
Vess:ls
Facilities
Fields &
Personal
Vehicles
Bases
Equip.
& Equip.
Valuation of
1942
1942
Valuation of
Actual
1st Quarter Avg.
2
360
61
68
177
1st Quarter Avg.
Actual
Production
2nd Quarter Avg.
8
524
122
98
171
2nd Quarter Avg.
Production
3rd Quarter Avg.
85
662
233
117
196
3rd Quarter Avg.
October
145
684
214
109
174
October
November
142
649
188
107
179
November
December
129
606
146
106
207
December
1943
1943
January
95
581
125
110
185
January
Valuation of
February
83
551
185
153
196
February
March
Valuation of
Schedules*
66
530
192
157
218
March
Schedules*
April
57
480
185
163
238
April
May
53
435
175
June
192
229
May
45
390
165
186
225
June
July
36
325
150
186
221
July
August
29
280
124
186
194
September
August
17
245
99
186
201
October
September
13
229
99
189
212
October
November
10
227
98
196
224
November
December
6
227
98
204
241
December
1942 Actual
700
6,606
1,793
1,171
2,044
1942 Actual
1943 Schedule
510
4,500
1,695
2,108
2,584
1943 Schedule
1943 Req. Prod.
510
4,500
1,695
2,097
2,928
1943 Req. Prod.
1
1943 Schedule os % of Req. Prod.
1943 Schedule os % of Req. Prod.
Note: Schedules as of Feb. 1 for aircraft and aircraft minitions, ground army munitions, and other S. 0. 5. Items:
as of Jan. 1 for all others.
*Army schedulce are in process of revision. + Since Army schedules are being revised to meet the new Supply Pro-
cran, comparison of present schedules with required production are not valid.
The President
WAR PROGRESS
Confidential
(British Secret)
= - A of
go w
Airplane Output in February... Sim-
plification-Battlefield and Factory...
Scorecard on Merchant Shipping...
Planes and Their Motors
Number 129
March 5, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL
NUMBER 129
WAR PROGRESS
MARCH 5, 1943
Airplane Production Recovers
Acceptances run 9% ahead of January and 17% over January, as this table (weight
attain highest daily average on record,
of airframes, excluding spares) shows:
exceeding December. But output lags be -
hind schedule and big job lies ahead.
Feb. as % of
Jan.
8-L Sched.
ACCEPTANCES of military planes in Feb-
All military planes
117%
87%
ruary recovered from the January slump.
At 5,452, they were 9% above January's
Combat planes
123
87
5,013 and almost reached the record
Bombers (including
level of 5,489 planes established in
flying boats)
127
89
December. However, production fell be-
Army fighters
100
82
hind the 8-L schedule by 13%.
Navy (fighter &
In daily output, February surpassed
reconnaissance) 163
76
December, the previous high. Accept-
ances averaged 195 per day, as against
Service combat
94
77
January's 162, and December's 177.
Transport
94
78
In terms of airframe weight, which
Communication
92
69
makes allowance for the greater amount
of materials which go into bombers com-
Trainers
104
94
pared with fighters, etc., February ex-
ceeded December by 3%. And it was up
The table indicates that Navy fighters
JOB AHEAD IN AIRPLANES
Monthly output must more than double current levels to achieve 8-L Schedule.
15
15
Schedule
10
10
THOUSANDS OF PLANES
Monthly overage
required to ottoin
1943 goal.
Actual
THOUSANDS OF PLANES
5
5
Monthly average since
January 1, 1942
o
0
J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N D
1942
1943
WAR PROGRESS
12
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
HIGHER INCOME, HIGHER SAVINGS, HIGHER LIVING COST
And there is higher spending, too; for the rise in savings is not enough to
close "inflation gap
140
140
8
8
I. Income payments to individuals
2. And though personal taxes have
are at record levels,
jumped sharply,
120
120
'6
6
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
100
100
80
Income Poyments
80
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
4
Personal
4
Taxes
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
Annual Rote
2
2
60
60
40
40
0
0
1929 30 31 32 33 '34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
1929 '30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 '40 41 '42
140
140
30
30
3. Disposable income (income pay-
4. As income rises, a larger propor-
ments less personal taxes ) is at
tion is being saved,
120
a new high.
120
20
20
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
100
100
80
80
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
% OF DISPOSABLE INCOME
% of Disposable
Disposable
Income Soved
% OF DISPOSABLE INCOME
Income
10
10
60
60
40
40
o
0
1929 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
1929 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
140
140
130
130
5. But consumer expenditures for
6. And as buying demand goes up,
goods and services are never-
so does the cost of living.
120
theless increasing,
120
120
120
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
100
100
80
80
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1935-39 100
110
110
1935-39.10 100
Cost of Living
Consumer Expenditures
and Gifts
100
100
60
60
40
40
90
90
1929 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
1929 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
WAR PROGRESS
2
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
and reconnaissance planes made the best
turned out two and one-half times more
single percentage gain among major groups,
planes than in January. However, a
but they fell sharply--24%--below fore-
tenfold monthly increase is called for
cast. Bombers, which constitute about
by the end of this year.
two-thirds of weighted plane production,
Among patrol bombers (flying boats),
showed a 27% month-to-month gain and,
results varied widely. Acceptances of
next to trainers, came closest to making
2-engined models registered a 45% gain
the February schedule.
over January, but the heavy 4-engined
types dropped 25%. Neither group at-
BIG BOMBERS BEAT 8-L
tained schedule, the heavier patrol
Heavy 4-engined bombers came through
bombers falling 65% behind 8-L and the
especially well. The number accepted
lighter ones 38%. Output of the PBM
was 36% ahead of January and 2% above
"Mariner" continues to lag. It fell
February's schedule. This contrasts
66% behind schedule, after no deliver-
with January's especially poor perform-
ies in January.
ance, when they were 11% short of both
schedule and the previous month's out-
THE LONG-AWAITED "CORSAIR"
put. The better-than-average rate of
Among Army fighters, the "Airacobra"
production for the biggest bombers re-
and the "Warhawk" were both on schedule.
flects the special efforts being de-
But the Navy's long-awaited fighter,
voted to getting them out; they get a
the 2,000 hp. "Corsair," which has just
top priorityrating among airplanes when
seen action for the first time (in the
it comes to distributing critical parts
South Pacific), fell 25% behind sched-
and materials.
ule. Also behind schedule was Repub-
Despite labor difficulties, the Boe-
lic's "Thunderbolt," the P-47.
ing B-17 "Flying Fortress' ran 30% ahead
Within the category of transport
of January and 10% ahead of 8-L sched-
planes, heavy 4-engined machines ran
ule. Ford's Willow Run bomber factory,
7% ahead of January and met the 8-L
though again behind production plan,
schedule in the number accepted, though
slightly below schedule on a weight
basis. The first C-76 (Curtiss "Cara-
IN THIS ISSUE:
van") plywood cargo plane was accepted.
AIRPLANE OUTPUT RECOVERS
This 2-engined transport is to be built
1
SIMPLIFICATION-IN FACTORY AND BATTLE
on a mass scale by the Higgins company
3
of New Orleans, as well as by Curtiss.
SHORT SUMMATION OF SIMPLIFICATION
5
SHIPS BEHIND SCHEDULE
6
OUTPUT MUST DOUBLE
SCORECARD ON MERCHANT SHIPPING
7
February's overall performance, de-
THE POWER BEHIND THE PLANES
8
spite the high daily average of accept-
WHICH ENGINE GOES WITH WHICH PLANE
9
ances, suggests the magnitude of the
KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK
production job that lies ahead (chart,
11
WAR PROGRESS NOTES
page 1). To meet the 1943 schedule,
11
monthly production during the rest of
WARTIME EMPLOYMENT SQUEEZE
12
this year must average 55% higher than
SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS
13
in February. And by December, the Feb-
PRODUCTION PROGRESS (AIRCRAFT, CONSTRUC-
TION)
ruary rate of output must be more than
14-16
doubled.
MARCH 5, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL
3
Simplification-In Factory and Battle
Cutting down on types and sizes is scheme to
Back in July, 1942, 16 manufacturers
boost production, sove manpower and
were producing 98 basic air-cooled engine
materials. But it's a big help in combat
models for the armed services, the Mar-
because parts can be interchanged.
itime Commission, and for the agricul-
tural, mining, and logging industries.
IN MAY, 1942, when Rommel launched his
Moreover, each purchaser requested a
drive toward Egypt, the British Eighth
particular kind of engine to meet its
Army was frequently unable to maintain
needs; in the Army, for example, the
its mechanical equipmentat maximum op-
Corps of Engineers, Chemical Warfare
eration--not because of enemy gunfire,
Service, Signal Corps, Air Forces, etc.
but because of the many different kinds
of ten laid down different specifications
of repair and replacement parts required.
for the same end use. The result was
These could neither be stocked in suf-
that many variations of these 98 basic
ficient quantity nor expeditiously han-
air-cooled engine models were being pro-
dled. At one time, in fact, a third of
duced: Some buyers specified the same
all British tanks at the battle front
kind of carburetor but a different-sized
were out of action-being cannibalized
gas tank;others specified the same-sized
(stripped of parts) to keep the remain-
gas tank but a different type of starter;
ing two-thirds in running order.
still others specified the same kind of
starter but a different type of muffler;
ELIMINATING FRILLS
and so forth.
That story hasbeen and is being changed
--through simplification. In order to
CUT FROM 98 TO 47
save materials and machinery, in order
Eight months of cooperative study
to boost output, the armed services,
have now made it possible to reduce the
manufacturers, and the War Production
number of basic engine models from 98
Board worked out ways (1) to cut out
to 47, a cut of more than 50%. What's
frills and furbelows, and (2) to do away
more, each basic model produced by a
with many types and sizes of numerous
given manufacturer will take a single-
products. In short, they standardized
type carburetor, muffler, air cleaner,
where possible. (Standardization begins
spark plug, starter, etc. One kind of
where simplification ends.) And since
paint job has been decided on for the
standardization means interchangeabil-
armed services (a double cross-coat of
ity, it is at once a boon-and necessity
semigloss olive-drab enamel); similarly,
--on the battlefield.
a uniform parts-and-maintenance manual
has been accepted. (Military engine de-
PLETHORA OF ENGINE TYPES
liveries were sometimes held up because
The air-cooled gasoline engine (up
the exact manual specified wasn't avail-
to 35 hp.), used in pumps, field radios,
able.)
generator sets, fire-fighting units,
Simplification of the air-cooled gas-
water-purification systems, plane and
oline engine will cut spare parts require-
tank auxiliary engines, etc., is a case
ments by an estimated 40% and also boost
in point. This has been a problem through-
production. Already, one manufacturer
out the North African campaign.
--with no increase in labor or machinery
4
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
-has virtually doubled his former "peak"
essential galvanized ware, 10%-15%; ma-
output of 90 engines daily. And that's
chine-tool electrical specifications,
only one example of what simplification
10%-15%; industrial power trucks, 25%;
can do.
Portland cement, 25%; and enamelware,
35%-50%.
OVER 100 ORDERS ISSUED
So far, many civilian as well as
EVEN BOBBY PINS
military and industrial products have
Also, numerous economies in critical
been simplified (table, page 5). Since
materials have been effected. Thus,
February, 1942, when the first order in-
elimination of unessential types of do-
volving simplification was issued, rough-
mestic cooking and heating appliances
ly 100 such orders have been released.
saved 350,000 tons of iron and steel
The average reduction in product variety
annually; the same thing in electric
has been 75%; the following list is il-
motors and generators-with up-rating--
lustrative:
saved 5,600 tons of copper. Curtailing
extra designs in shoes and streamlining
No. of Sizes
manufacturing processes saved 30,000
or Types
tons of leather. By limiting the length
Product
Before After % Cut
of bobby pins to two inches, 4,000 tons
Valves & fittings
4,030
2,500
38%
of steel were saved. A recent order
Electric light bulbs 3,500 1,700
51
shortening wooden matches by one six-
Hand tools
1,150
357
69
teenth to one-fourth inch will save an
Mech. water coolers.
27
8
70
estimated 380 carloads of lumber annually.
Wood saws
800
210
74
X-ray equipment
100
25
75
RECORD OF SAVINGS
Industrial power
Overall economies last year, as a re-
trucks
221
50
77
sult of 82 simplification orders, are
Auto tire chains
14
3
79
placed as follows:
Portable jaw & roll
crushers
25
5
80
Estimated
Auto stor. batteries
100
16
84
Material
1942 Savings
Shipping bags
100
12
88
(thousands)
Chemical fertilizers
800
90
89
Copper (tons)
17
Steel wheels & tires
500
50
90
*Cloth (yds.)
180,000
Douglas-fir plywood.
4,300
300
93
Leather (tons)
30
Enamelware
450
25
94
Lumber (bd. ft.)
450,000
Fluorescent ltg. fix.
200
2
99
Pulp (tons)
227
Steel (tons)
600
*Heavy forged. **Manual and special
Solder (lbs.)
35
purpose. **Textile and paper.
Tungsten (lbs.)
8
In bottleneck items, simplification
*Includes cotton, wool, and rayon.
has increased productive capacities from
8% to 50%. (The average has been 17%.)
At the same time, enough man-hours
Examples: valves and fittings, 8%; uni-
were saved (15,000,000) to build 23 Lib-
versal portable electric tools, 10%;
erty cargo vessels. And inventories were
electric motors and generators, 10%;
reduced an average of 25%.
MARCH 5, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL
5
Close attention to simplification is
at the time of the Armistice in 1918.
not native to the present emergency.
The current scorecard on unfinished sim-
In the first World War, types and sizes
plification projects follows:
of farm machinery, clothing, metal con-
tainers, hardware, auto tires, shipping
Stage of Acceptance
Project
containers, etc. were also reduced-with
1. Proposed or initiated
24
the usual overall savings in materials,
2. In process of development
83
manpower, and transportation. But now,
3. In process of revision
37
after little more than a year of war,
4. Orders being written
26
it is generally accepted that simplifi-
5. Orders being circulated.
63
cation is. further advanced than it was
Total
233
SHORT SUMMATION OF SIMPLIFICATION
SINCE FEBRUARY, 1942, WHEN THE FIRST ORDER INVOL-
ON CAST-IRON WARE (L-42-C) SIMPLIFIED SKILLETS,
VING SIMPLIFICATION WAS ISSUED (L-42, SCHEDULE I
KETTLES, GRIDDLES, FLATIRONS, AND DUTCH OVENS;
ON VALVES), AROUND 100 SIMILAR ORDERS HAVE BEEN
THE ONE ON HAND TOOLS (L-157) SIMPLIFIED HOES,
RELEASED. PRODUCTS SIMPLIFIED RANGE FROM C IVILIAN
PICKS, TONGS, WEDGES, HAMMERS, SLEDGES, AND MAT-
ITEMS SUCH AS CLOTHING, HAIRPINS, AND BABY CAR-
TOCKS. IN ALL, 315 PRODUCTS (140 CONSUMER AND
RIAGES, TO INDUSTRIAL ITEMS SUCH AS CONCRETE
175 INDUSTRIAL) WERE SIMPLIFIED LAST YEAR-AND
REINFORCEMENT STEEL, INDUSTRIAL POWER TRUCKS, AND
THE ROLL CONTINUES TO GROW AT AN ACCELERATED RATE.
PORTABLE JAW AND ROLL CRUSHERS. MANY OF THESE
HERE'S A REPRESENTATIVE LIST OF PRODUCTS THAT
ORDERS AFFECT MORE THAN ONE PRODUCT. THE ORDER
HAVE BEEN SIMPLIFIED:
Asphalt & tarred products Fluorescent lighting fixtures Men's & boys' clothing
Automotive storage batteries
Footwear
Metal containers
Automotive tire chains
Forged axes, adzes, hammers &
Mobile house trailers
Baby carriages
hatchets
oil burners
Barbed & fence wire
Fountain pens, mechanical pen-
Paper & paperboard
Bed springs & mattresses
cils, wood-case pencils, pen
Pipe fittings
Bicycles & parts
nibs, & penholders
Plumbing fixtures, fittings, &
Builders' finishing hardware
Galvanized ware
trim
Cast-ironware, soil pipe& fit-
Glass containers & closures
Plumbing & heating tanks
tings, & tubular radiators
Hair & bobby pins
Portland cement
Chemical fertilizers
Hand forks, hooks, rakes, hoes,
Poultry netting & flooring
Coal stokers
eye hoes, & cultivators
Radio tubes
Concrete construction mixers
Heavy forged hand tools
Refrigeration condensing units
(portable)
Hearing-aid batteries
Mechanical water coolers
Concrete reinforcement steel
Heating specialties (vacuum &
Shovels, spades, scoops, &
Cooking & heating appliances
vapor)
telegraph spoons
(domestic)
Hospital enamelware
Steel wheels & tires
Dewatering pumps
Ice refrigerators (domestic)
Textile shipping bags
Douglas-fir plywood
Incandescent, fluorescent &
Toilet tissue rolls
Dry-cell batteries
otherelectricdischarge lamps
Umbrellas
Electric motors & generators
Industrial power trucks
Universal portable electrictools
Enamelware
Jaw & roll crushers (portable)
Valves & valve parts
Feminine apparel (including
Loose-leaf metal parts & units
Wallpaper
lingerie & lounging wear)
Low-pressure heating boilers
Water heaters
Fire protective, alarm, and
Machine tool electrical
Wood saws (manual&specialpurpose)
signal equipment
specifications
X-ray equipment
6 CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
Last year, it required an average of
three and a half months to complete a
Ships Behind Schedule
simplification project (the range was
Though February deliveries of merchantmen
from six weeks to around eight months);
set on all-time record, they are short
but the 1943 average is expected to be
of months goal for third time in a row
cut roughly 30%, to about 10 weeks.
Absenteeism. weather blamed.
ARMY KEEN FOR IT
DELIVERIES of major types of ocean-going
With manpower, materials, and machines
vessels set an all-time record of 1,-
all short, the urgency to save on all
177,000 tons deadweight in February,
sides has become manifest. What's more,
topping January by 20%; but they fell
manufacturers, the armed services, and
15% behind schedule, for several reasons:
War Production Board officials have a
(1) bad weather, (2) excessive absent-
better understanding of the problem-of
eeism, and (3) the new and higher 18,-
ways and means of simplifying and stand-
900,000-ton Maritime Commission program
ardizing.
for 1943 was not approved until January,
Besides, the value of interchangeable
resulting in delays in getting an in-
parts in the battlefield has acted as
creased volume of materials.
an additional spur to technicians in
The February performance suggests
the armed forces. Indeed, the Army has
the size of the job ahead. To meet the
been outstanding in developing methods
1943 schedule, Maritime Commission yards
to simplify transport vehicles.
must average 1,670,000 tons per month-
NEEDED: 40% STEPUP IN MERCHANT SHIPBUILDING
Though February output of ocean-going vessels tops previous record, it falls
short of schedule, and sharp increase is needed to attain 1943 goal.
2000
2000
Schedule
Monthly average required
1500
to attain 1943 goal.
1500
THOUSANDS OF DEADWEIGHT TONS
Actual
1000
1000
THOUSANDS OF DEADWEIGHT TONS
Monthly overage since
January 1,1942
500
500
0
o
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
0
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
o
N
D
1942
1943
WAR PROGRESS
MARCH 5, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL 7
SCORECARD ON MERCHANT SHIPPING
Sinkings of United Nations vessels drop for the third successive month and
construction rises, resulting in another substantial gain in net tonnage.
2000
2000
Sinkings vs. Construction
Schedule
1000
1000
Sinkings
Construction
o
0
+ 1000
+ 1000
Net Loss (or Gain) - Monthly
THOUSANDS OF DEADWEIGHT TONS
Gain
O
o
THOUSANDS OF DEADWEIGHT TONS
Loss
1000
-1000
o
o
The Cumulative Deficit
2000
2000
4000
4000
6000
6000
8000
8000
10,000
10,000
1940
1941
1942
1943
WAR PROGRESS
IN FEBRUARY, SINKINGS OF MERCHANT SHIPS DROPPED FOR
STRUCT ION COMES UP TO SCHEDULE, ALLIED SHIPPING WILL
THE THIRD MONTH IN A ROW, WHILE NEW CONSTRUCTION
BE BACK TO MID-1940 STRENGTH WITHIN FOUR TO FIVE
ROSE SHARPLY OVER JANUARY LEVELS. RESULT: THE UNITED
MONTHS. HOWEVER, THE TEST OF THE RECENT TREND IN
NATIONS MERCHANT FLEET IS UP NOTICEABLY. INDEED,
SINKINGS, WHICH ARE THE LOWEST SINCE NOVEMBER, 1941,
IF LOSSES ARE HELD TO THE CURRENT RATE AND NEW CON-
WILL COME IN THE SPRING.
8
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
or 40% above the February level.
Preliminary reports for February indicate
Even if allowance is made for the fact
that absenteeism has not abated.
that February had only 28 days-daily
Unusual snowfall on the West Coast
output averaged 42,000 tons deadweight
and abnormally low temperatures on the
against 37,300 tons in December, the
East Coast slowed up actual construction
previous high month--a 33% increase in
of ships as well as prefabrication.
average monthly output is called for.
In February, building time for Liberty
ships went up, thus reversing a 13-month
ABSENTEEISM COSTLY
trend. It took 62 days, on the average,
Merchant ships have fallen behind
to produce a Liberty, from keel-laying
schedule for three successive months.
to delivery, compared with 52.6 days in
In January, an estimated 11,800,000 man-
January. This was due not only to ex-
hours were lost through absenteeism in
cessive absenteeism and unfavorable
yards building merchant ships, almost
weather, but also to the fact that yards
enough to account for the month's 200,-
which just came into production had not
000-odd ton lag behind the forecast.
perfected industrial techniques.
The Power Behind the Planes
Output of aircraft engines closer to schedule
tation, as well as maintaining a greatly
than in the case of planes. Pioneer firms
expanded output in their own plants.
aided by converted auto plants, which now
And upuntil Pearl Harbor, they produced
account for more than half the production.
practically all the radial engines for
combat planes. However, General Motors'
FOR EVERY 100 engines installed in com-
Allison Division was making Allison Vee-
bat planes, the Army and Navy require
type motors and Packard and Ford had
40 additional engines as spares.
De-
facilities in preparation.
spite this 14-to-10 ratio, monthly pro-
duction of engines has held generally
AUTO FIRMS COME IN
closer to schedule than in the case of
But now, nine automotive firms are
airplanes themselves.
turning out aircraft engines for the Army,
In January of this year, for instance,
Navy, and the Allies. In 1942, their
when aircraft production slumped 16%
below schedule (WP-Feb12'43,pl) air-
output of motors for tactical planes
plane engines were only 7% behind.
only--bombers, fighters, and transports
--was valued at about $858,000,000, or
More than pulling their weight in
roughly 50% of the total value of such
this showing are newcomers to the in-
engines produced in the United States
dustry--the automobile manufacturers.
With one exception, their January out-
last year. And in 1943, the production
put equaled or bettered the schedules
of the automotive group is scheduled to
laid out for them.
triple--to around $2,600,000,000--or
about 65% of the total.
Today, the airplane engine industry
roughly divides into two parts.
The step from automobile to airplane
The
old-line companies--Pratt & Whitney and
motors is not a simple one--it requires
Wright--still carry the major burden of
re-education, retooling, and in most
engineering, development, and experimen-
instances, new plants. Packard, for
example, contracted to build an adapta-
MARCH 5, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL 9
tion of the British Merlin engine early
2800s was let November 5, 1940, but pro-
in August, 1940, and was scheduled to
duction didn't start for almost a year.
begin production in the following March,
For an even longer period, Allison was
but it was not until August, 1941, that
busy getting the "bugs" out of its op-
the company turned out its first engine.
eration--though for the last six months
And Ford's first contract to build R-
it has been performing according to sched-
WHICH ENGINE GOES WITH WHICH PLANE
U.S. MANUFACTURERS ARE MAKING SOME 11 MAJOR-TYPE
R-2600 POWERS THE ARMY'S "BILLY MITCHELL ME-
ENGINES TO POWER THE 45-000 COMBAT PLANE TYPES
DIUM BOMBER, THE NAVY'S "HELLDIVER," AND S0 ON.
IN SERVICE WITH THE ARMY AND NAVY TODAY. PRATT
SOME INTERCHANGEABILITY OF ENGINES IS POSSIBLE,
& WHITNEY'S R-2800, FOR EXAMPLE, IS USED IN THE
PARTICULARLY IF THEY HAVE THE SAME WEIGHT AND
"THUNDERBOLT" FIGHTER AS WELL AS IN TWO ARMY
HORSE POWER, BUT THE FOLLOWING TABLE REPRESENTS
BOMBERS AND IN A NAVY TORPEDO BOMBER; WRIGHT'S
THE MOST COMMON COMBINATIONS.
Engine
Manufacturer
Plane
R-2800 *Double Wasp* (1-stage)
Pratt & Whitney
C-46 (Commando) P-47 (Thun--
(18 cyl., 2-row, 2,000 hp.)
Ford
derbolt); B-26 (Marauder):
A-26; B-34 (Ventura): TBU
R-2800 *Double Wasp" (2-stage)
Pratt & Whitney
F3A, F4U, FG-1 (Corsair):
(18 cyl., 2-row, 2,000 hp.)
Nash-Kelvinator
F6F (wildcat 11); P-61; P-60
Ford
R-1830 *Twin Wasp" (1-stage)
Pratt & Whitney
C-47 (Skytrain) C-62; C-76
(14 cyl., 2-row, 1,200 hp.)
Buick
(Caravan); PBV-1, PBY (Cat-
Chevrolet
alina) PB2Y-3R (Coronado):
8-24 (Liberator)
R-1830 *Twin Wasp" (2-stage)
Pratt & Whitney
F4F, FM-1 (wildcat); PB2Y-3
(14 cyl., 2-row, 1,200 hp.)
(Coronado)
R-1820 "Cyclone"
Wright
A-24 (Dauntless) B-17 (Fly-
(9 cyl., 1,200 hp.)
Studebaker
ing Fortress); FM-2 (wild-
cat); C-60 (Lodestar); SC-1;
J2F,
R-3350 "Cyclone 18" BA
Wright
8-29; C-69 (Constellation):
(18 cyl., 2-row, 2,250 np.)
Dodge
B-32
R-3350 *Cyclone 18" 88
Wright
SB2D; P4Y; PBM-4 (Mariner):
(18 cyl., 2-row, 2,250 hp.)
Dodge
C-69B (Constellation)
R-2600 *Cyclone 14" A
Wright
A-20 (Boston): SB2A (Buc-
(14 cyl., 2-row, 1,700 no.)
caneer): A-31, A-35 (Ven-
geance)
R-2600 *Cyclone 14" B
wright
A-30 (Baltimore) B-25
(14 cyl., 2-row, 1,700 hp.)
(Mitchell) PBM (Mariner):
A-25, SB2C (Helldiver):
TBF (Avenger)
V-1710
Allison
P-39, P-63 (Airacobra): A-36
(12 cyl., liquid cooled,
(Mustang Dive Domber): P-38
1125-1425 hp.)
(Lightning): P-40 (Warhawk)
₹
V-1650 *Merlin*
Packard
P-40 (Warhawk): P-51 (Mus-
(12 cyl., liquid cooled,
tang): British Mosquitos &
1520 np.)
Lancasters.
10
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
ule and horsepower has been up to spec-
and in 1943, when production will soar
ification.
to around $679,000,000, Ford will account
At the close of 1942, government-
for more than 90%.
financed airplane-engine plant awards
In other instances, automotive plants
to all manufacturers amounted to almost
are in the process of gradually taking
$1,500,000,000, of which automobile
over the bulk of production from the
manufacturers received about half:
originating manufacturers. Wright de-
veloped the R-3350 "Cyclone 18" engine
Companies
Estimated Cost
and produced around $2,000,000 worth of
Chrysler (and Dodge)
$157,048,000
them in 1942. But the Dodge Motor Com-
Ford
71,250,000
pany at Chicago is getting facilities
General Motors (Allison)
64,358,000
to make these engines and is to be in
General Motors (Buick)
101,403,000
production by the early fall of this year.
General Motors (Chevrolet)
86,085,000
In the first nine months of 1944, when
Packard
62,444,000
production of the engine is scheduled
Studebaker
72,541,000
to exceed $445,000,000 in value, Dodge
Nash-Kelvinator
32,283,000
is slated to produce more than 60%.
Total
$647,412,000
NASH MOVES IN
The converted or newly built auto-
Then, there's the case of the 2-stage
motive plants--with the exception of
"Double Wasp" engine, which powers sev-
Chrysler and a branch of Ford where work
eral Navy fighters (including the fast
is progressing on experimental types--
Vought-Sikorsky "Corsair") and the Army
are for the most part engaged in mass
P-60 and P-61. Pratt & Whitney carried
production of the basic Wright and Pratt
the ball by itself on this one until last
& Whitney engines. For example, Pratt
December, when the Nash-Kelvinator plant
& Whitney plants accounted for less than
at Kenosha, Wis., got into production
40% of the 1942 output of their R-1830
with a few engines slightly ahead of
"Twin Wasp" engines--used in three Navy
schedule. Though Pratt & Whitney will
patrol bombers and in the B-24 "Libera-
step up its own production to around
tors." Of total production, valued at
$223,400,000 in 1943, Nash-Kelvinator
around $325,000,000, Buick was respon-
will turn out motors valued at about
sible for more than 40% and Chevrolet,
$108,000,000. Ford, also, will start
20%. And under 1943 schedules--with
production on this model in the fall and
the production of "Twin Wasps" increas-
is scheduled to produce engines valued
ing to around $888,000,000--Buick will
at $25,000,000 before the year is out.
produce about 45% of the value, Chevro-
Thus, the auto companies' proportion will
let,42%, and Pratt & Whitney only 13%.
run around 37% this year.
Meanwhile, Allison and Packard have
FORD'S SHARE UPPED
been producing in quantity. Value of
Similarly with the Pratt & Whitney
the 1942-1943 program for Allison V-
R-2800 "Double Wasp" (1-stage)--an 18
1710s amounts to about $643,000,000.
cylinder, 2,000 hp. engine that powers
Thisis the 12-cylinder, liquid-cooled,
the B-26 "Marauder," and also the P-47
1125-1425 hp. engine that powers the
"Thunderbolt": In 1942, Ford turned out
P-39 Bell "Airacobra," the P-38 Lockheed
about $173,000,000 worth of these en-
"Lightning," and the P-63. Also, Allison
gines--almost 70% of the total value--
will produce this year its V-3420--а
MARCH 5, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL
11
KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK
Lotest
Preceding
Month
6 Months
Year
Week
Week
Ago
Ago
Ago
Wor program Checks paid (millions of dollars)
1,431
1,527
1,531
1,136
567
Wor bond soles (millions of dollars)
273
212,
378
151
124
Commodity prices (August 1939=100)
28 Bosic commodities
176.0
175.3
174.4
166.9
165.2
Controlled
162.2
162.1
162.0
161.4
162.0
Uncontrolled
210.6
r208.3
205.9
181.1
173.5
Nonferrous metal scrop
117.5
117.5
117.5
118.3
Textile scrap
132.5
172.2
170.7
172.5
170.8
175.0
Petroleum carloadings (no. of tank cars)
Total
52,239
51,986
50,631
53.748
51,759
Movement into East
26,592
26,152
25,879
27,266
10,162
Exports (no. of freight cars unlooded for export Friday)
Atlantic Coast ports
1,406
1,226
1,306
1,635
1,811
Gulf Coast ports
448
398
330
320
456
Pocific Coost ports
883
980
769
724
331
Unused steel capacity (% operations below copacity)
1.8
1.1
0.5
2.4
2.8
Department store soles (% change from o year ago)
26
33
0
-13
19
r Revised.
liquid-cooled, 24-cylinder. Double-Vee
making. The squeeze on nonwar industries
motor of 2300-2450 hp.
has begun. Thus, employment in trade
Packard's production of V-1650s in
is down 5% from January, 1942; construc-
1942 was valued at $155,896,000; will
tion is down 12%; mining is down 9%, due
step up to around $325,000,000 this
largely to the sharp drop in oil well
year. These liquid-cooled 12-cylinder
drilling and to the lure of other war
"Merlins" go into the P-40 Curtiss, and
industries. Durable goods employment
the P-51 North American "Mustang," as
is up 29%.
well as the British "Lancaster" bomber.
These changes are even more strik-
And "Merlin" engines power fast British
ingly indicated in terms of percentages
"Mosquitos" of the type which timed their
of the total nonagricultural working
bombing of Berlin last month to break
force. Today 24 out of every 100 non-
up Goering's radio address celebrating
agricultural workers are engaged in dur-
the tenth anniversary of Hitler's acces-
able goods industries as against 21 a
sion to power.
year ago. The proportion of federal em-
ployment has likewise gone up, from 5%
War Progress Notes
to 8%. But nondurable goods employment
has dropped from 18% to 17% (bottom
MANPOWER MOVES
chart, page 12).
EVER SINCE 1939, the United States has
been heading into a manpower crisis
STORE SALES SOAR
(chart, page 12). War has stimulated
ONE EFFECT of the Office of Price Ad-
production of all types of goods--non-
ministration's overnight order ration-
durable as well as durable; and employ-
ing shoes was to send America's ulti-
ment has increased accordingly.
mate consumers on a clothes-buying spree.
Today, however, new trends are in the
Department store sales soared, as the
JANUARY 8, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL. 13
to a new high of $108,000,000,000, al-
rest are mainly tulip bulbs-once ob-
most 40% more than in 1929 and 21/2 times
tained chiefly from Holland--leather,
as much as in 1932 or 1933. The tend-
fur, cut diamonds, china, and printed
ency of people to save a larger propor-
books.
tion of their income as income rises
was augmented last year by the payroll
CONTROLLING PRICES
deduction and other war bond sales drives,
BEFORE the General Maximum Price Regu-
and savings rose to 24% of income pay-
lation went into effect, the theory of
ments, compared with 14% in 1941.
(A
price control for the United States ran
part of this is temporary savings only,
something like this: Keep down the
accumulated in anticipation of heavy
prices of basic commodities and machin-
income tax payments inMarch.) The pro-
ery, such as steel, coal, copper, lead,
portion of income spent therefore de-
zinc, and machine tools, and then costs
clined, but actual dollar expenditures
in basic along-the-line manufacturing
rose almost 10%, forcing the cost of
will be held down; if these basic costs
living up about 10% (chart, page 12).
are held down, then wholesale and re-
tail prices ought to stay in check.
TEXTILES, MACHINERY, AND TULIPS
What happened to the theory can now
MONTHLY imports from the United Kingdom
be told. Prices of producers' durable
are down to about $7,000,000--from $11,-
goods have been held in check-at least
000,000 early in 1942. Textiles and
comparatively. They have not risen
textile machinery constitute around 55%
nearly so sharply as prices of consum-
of the total; whisky about 25%.
The
ers' goods in general. And that is sig-
KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK
Latest
Preceding
Month
6 Months
Year
Week
Week
Ago
Ago
Ago
War program Checks paid (millions of dollars)
1,418
1,176
1,348
829
385
War bond sales (millions of dollars)
297
216
184
139
166
Commodity prices (August 1939 = 100)
28 Basic commodities
172.9
172.7
170.5
167.2
119.0
Controlled
162.1
162.2
162.0
162.6
117.7
Uncontrolled
200.0
199.1
191.8
179.9
122.1
Nonferrous metal scrap
117.5
117.5
117.5
124.3
131.5
Petroleum carloadings (no. of tank cars)
Total
46,157
50,058
51,342
54,691
42,267
Movement into East
22,712
24,224
25,358
24,024
1,901
Exports (no. of freight cars unloaded for export Friday)
Atlantic Coast ports
963
926
1,144
1,360
1,517
Gulf Coast ports
271
343
431
607
367
Pacific Coast ports
723
805
1,021
600
177
Strikes affecting the war effort
Number in progress
7
9
10
15
n.a.
Man-days lost
10,470
12,756
9,470
46,165
n.a.
Unused steel capacity (% operations below capacity)
3.0
1.8
1.4
3.0
3.6
n.a. Not available.
12
...CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
WARTIME EMPLOYMENT SQUEEZE
Durable goods manufacturing and the federal government are still expanding.
Shrinkage in trade now discernible.
Number of Nonogricultural Workers
40
40
Federal
Local
Government
30
and
30
NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT IN MILLIONS
Finance Stote Service and Misc Employment
Trade
20
20
Transportation and Public Utilities
Contract Construction
NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT - IN MILLIONS
10
10
Nondurable Monufacturing
Durable Monufocturing
o
o
1939
1940
1941
:942
1943
% Distribution of Nonagricultural Workers
100
Federal Government
100
State and Local Government
80
Finance Service and Misc Employment
80
NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT % DISTRIBUTION
Trode
60
60
Transportation and Public Utilities
40
Contract Construction
40
Mining
NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT % DISTRIBUTION
Nondurable Monufacturing
20
20
Durable Manufacturing
o
0
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
WAR PROGRESS
MARCH 5, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL.. 13
newly introduced series in "Key Statis- steel drums are expendable. Not only
tics of the Week" (page 11) indicates.
bullet holes, but also rust and dirt
Recent gains over a year ago have run
put these barrels "out of action"--a
as high as 45% and 33% but each suc-
tiny particle in aviation gasoline could
cessive week shows a smaller per cent
stall an airplane in mid-air.
rise. The latest week is only 26% above
To get the tremendous numbers needed
a year ago. From now on, it will be
by the Allied armies. abroad, the United
interesting to watch for the point at
States has arranged to build drum-making
which sales fall below a year ago. Not
plants overseas. This plant-building
only have department store stocks been
program is prompted largely 'by cargo
whittled down by record sales volume,
space considerations. The raw material
but replacements are more difficult; so
for these plants-steel sheet-will be
with less goods to sell, a decline is
supplied by American mills, and steel
inevitable.
sheet takes less shipping space than
empty drums. Nor is it efficacious to
STEEL DRUMS ABROAD
ship drums filled with petroleum; not
THE STEEL DRUM is the sine qua non of
when the Near East--lying between the
the modern army. Tremendous numbers
major battle areas--contains some of
are needed to carry the petroleum for
the richest petroleum reserves in the
motorized equipment and planes. But world.
SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS
Federal Employment- Federal Finance - Retail Sales
Some
Some
Lotest
Preceding
2 Months
6 Months
Year
Month
Month
Month
Month
Ago
Ago
Ago
1940
1938
.
FEDERAL CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT (thous)
02.925
2.923
r2,780
-2,422
1,734
948
817
War
p2,165
2,028
r1.928
r1,554
903
n.a.
n.a.
War Department
p1.394
1,280
r1,235
-959
524
Navy Department
P580
560
548
476
328
Other War ogencies
p191
188
145
119
51
Nonwor
p760
895
r852
r868
831
n.s.
n.s.
FEDERAL FINANCE (GENERAL FUND)
Expenditures Total (billion dollars)
6.1
6.4
6.5
5.2
2.6
.7
in
War
5.8
6.0
5.8
4.9
2.2
-
-
Nonwor
is
.4
.7
-3
.4
.7
is
Revenues Total
1.0
.8
2.7
.6
.8
.4
in
Income taxes
"
is
2.0
.2
in
-
.1
Other
.6
-5
.7
"
in
.4
.2
Wor bond soles
is
1.2
1.0
-7
-7
n.s.
n.a.
"E"
.6
.8
.7
-5
.4
n.a.
n.a.
"F"and"G"
.3
-4
in
.2
in
n.a.
n.s.
Net debt
108.6
103.3
97.6
78.5
58.8
40.0
34.7
RETAIL STORE SALES-TOTAL (million dollars)
p4,481
5,983
4,893
4,433
4,355
3,249
2,838
Duroble goods
p652
944
776
813
793
758
566
Nondurable goods
p3,229
5,039
4,116
3,620
3,562
2,491
2,271
.
January, except federal finance, February. P Preliminary. Γ Revised. n.a. Not available.
WAR PROGRESS
14 CONFIDENTIAL
PRODUCTION PROGRESS
Aircraft and Aircraft Munitions
Total Planes
Aircroft and Aircraft Munitions
Combot, Service, and Troiner
2000
3500
3000
1500
2500
Schedule"
2000
Schedule*
1000
1500
1000
Actual
500
Actual
500
o
o
1942
1943
1942
1943
Combat Planes
Service Planes
1600
150
VALUE DELIVERED MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1200
100
Schedule*
800
Schedule
50
VALUE DELIVERED MILLIONS DELIVERED-MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
400
Actual
Actual
o
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
Trainers
Gliders and Lighter-than-Air Craft
60
40
Schedule
30
Actuál
40
20
Schedule
20
Actual
10
o
o
1942
1943
1942
1943
# February schedule
WAR PROGRESS
MARCH 5, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL 15
PRODUCTION PROGRESS
Aircraft and Aircraft Munitions (Continued)
Spare Engines, Propellers, Parts
Aircraft Ordnance - Total
800
250
200
600
Schedule
#
Schedule
150
400
Actual
100
Actual
200
50
o
o
1942
1943
1942
1943
Aircraft Armament
Aircraft Ammunition
50
200
VALUE DELIVERED MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
Schedule
#
40
150
Actual
Schedule
30
100
20
Actual
VALUE DELIVERED DELIVERED-MILLIONS -MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
50
10
o
o
1942
1943
1942
1943
Aircraft Torpedoes, Bombs, Mines
Aircraft Signal Equipment
and Pyrotechnics
150
200
Schedule
150
100
Schedule
100
Actual
Actual
50
50
0
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
# February I Schedule
WAR PROGRESS
16 CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
PRODUCTION PROGRESS
War Construction
Total War Construction
Industrial Focilities
2000
700
600
Actual
1500
500
Actual
400
1000
Schedule
300
Schedule
200
500
100
0
o
1942
1943
1942
1943
Aircraft Fields and Bases
Troop Housing
250
400
VALUE PUT IN PLACE-MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
200
300
Actual
Actual
150
200
Schedule
100
Schedule
VALUE PUT IN PLACE-M:LLIONS OF DOLLARS
100
50
0
o
1942
1943
1942
1943
Wor Housing
All Other Nonindustrial Construction
100
400
80
300
Actual
Actual
60
200
Schedule
40
Schedule
100
20
0
0
1942
1943
1942
"January schedule
1943
WAR PROGRESS
The President
WAR PROGRESS
Confidential
(British Secret)
@ 8 0 1971 the
War Production in February
One-Third of a Nation's Steel
Number 130
March 12, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL
NUMBER 130
WAR PROGRESS
MARCH 12, 1943
Munitions Resume Upward Climb
But it is insufficient to carry total value above
ruary munitions and war construction
the December level. Airplanes,antisubma-
ran 7% per day above December.
rines are assuming increasing importance
Deliveries of aircraft and related
in total program. Construction down.
items rose 10% over January, although
5% behind schedules, and were a primary
WAR PRODUCTION last month resumed the
factor in lifting munitions output for
rise that was interrupted in January,
the month. Indeed, aircraft production
and almost-but not quite--took up where
topped December's (chart, page 4).
December left off.
Total munitions delivered and put in
BOMBERS SET PACE
place amounted to $4,330,000,000 (pre-
Outstanding were combat planes, up
liminary), an8% increase over January,
23%, though 13% under 8-L (WP-Mar5'43,-
but January totals suffered from the
pl). Bombers set the pace in the com-
end-of-the-year borrowing during Dec-
bat group, climbing 27% (11% behind
ember. Thus, the January-to-February
schedule), while fighters and naval
gain is misleading.
reconnaissance planes were up 8%, though
19% behind 8-L.
RECORD DAILY AVERAGE
As in January, planes which recently
On the other hand, relative to Dec-
got into production fell further behind
ember's all-time record performance,
the 8-L schedule set for them than planes
the February showing is good; output
which had been in production for more
was down less than 1% from the December
than six months. The same lag of new
total. Moreover, February was a 28-day
models was marked throughout 1942, when
month, as against January's 31 days.
such types fell short of the first-of-
Taking that into account, February pro-
the-year schedule by 40%, and older
duction ran 10% above December--$155,-
models by only 4%.
000,000 as against $141,000,000 per day.
The January daily average was $129,000,
ORDNANCE BEHIND DECEMBER
000.
Ground army munitions (ordnance and
Despite this new high in output per
signal equipment), at $995,000,000, ran
day, February munitions production lagged
4% ahead of schedule and 11% above Jan-
behind the first-of-the-month schedule
uary, but lagged behind December's rec-
by 7%.
ord-breaking total of more than $1,100,-
000,000. Combat vehicles, though 21%
AIRCRAFT TOPS BOTH MONTHS
ahead of January, account for this group's
Construction continued to decline,
lag behind December. At. $255,000,000,
as per plan. As a result, war output
they were $144,000,000 below December.
as awhole--munitions plus war construc-
Guns and equipment were up 9% and just
tion-at $5,400,000,000, was up only
about on schedule. Ammunition equaled
4% over January and was 3% under De-
January output and exceeded schedule
cember. Again, on a daily average basis
by 9%.
the showing improves considerably. Feb-
Aircraft bombs, up 12%, were among
2
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
ammunition items to rise significantly.
taken over by the U.S. Navy. Still
over the preceding month. Production
scheduled for future delivery are more
of the biggest U.S. bomb-the one-ton
than a thousand DE's.
block-buster--is approaching 10,000 per
Building of regular combat destroy-
month. The junior block-busters--one-
ers is proceeding far more rapidly in
half ton each--are running at more than
terms both of schedules and month-to-
50,000 per month.
month increases, than building of the
smaller, simpler, less heavily equipped
TONNAGE RECORD SET
DE vessels. The regular destroyers, in
Naval ships, plus equipment and ord-
general, are being built in shipyards
nance, rose 3% over estimated value put
with a substantial background of exper-
in place in January, but in terms of
ience with them. Most of the DE's are
schedule were short 21%. Tonnage ac-
being built in yards with little exper-
tually delivered was the highest on rec-
ience on that particular type of vessel.
ord, amounting to 180,000 tons. In
Partly because of the DE lag, the
all, some 900 vessels were delivered,
minor combat group, as a whole, came
of which 12 were major combat ships with
to only half its schedule in value, even
an aggregate displacement of 57,000 tons.
though deliveries were about double
those of January.
ANTISUB CRAFT LAG
Deliveries of antisubmarine craft
NEW HIGH FOR MERCHANTMEN
continue to lag. Destroyer escort (DE)
Merchant vessels, though reaching
vessels are still held up, apparently
their highest total to date, also fell
by complications of materials as well
behind schedule (WP-Mar5'43,p6).
as of small but crucial fittings and
A summary of individual items, com-
equipment items (WP-Feb5'43,p5). Though
paring February with the January actual
14 DE's were scheduled for last month,
and the February schedule (ranged in
only three were delivered. Two of these
order of monthly gain) follows:
go to the British; the other has been
February Deliveries
IN THIS ISSUE:
As % of
As % of
January
Schedule
MUNITIONS RESUME UPWARD CLIMB
1
Total tanks
133%
98%
Medium tanks
127
108
PRODUCTION PROGRESS PRELIMINARY
5
Combat planes
123
87
QUALITATIVE QUESTION IN STEEL
6
Merchant vessels
122
84
WHERE ALLOY STEELS GO
Medium wheeled art.
8
(155mm. howitzer)
119
81
LEND-LEASE: MORE GUNS, LESS BUTTER
10
Major combat vessels
118
90
KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK
11
Self-propelled art
114
110
Heavy wheeled art.
WAR PROGRESS NOTES
13
(115mm. gun)
112
100
REPORTS ON REPORTS
13
Landing vessels
105
93
SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS
Trainer planes
104
94
14
Amm. for small arms
PRODUCTION TIONS) PROGRESS (GROUND ARMY MUNI-
& infantry weapons.
100
106
15,16
Direct fighting items contirued to
MARCH 12, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL. 3
SHIFTING PROPORTIONS IN WAR OUTPUT
Tooled Up: Munitions production gains, while construction drops.
100
25
Total War Output
Construction
20
75
Munitions
Military
Installations
15
50
Construction
Industrial
IO
Facilities
25
5
Wor Housing
o
o
1940
1941
1942
1943
1940
1941
1942
1943
Aircraft is a rapidly rising percentage; miscellaneous munitions down.
40
30
Munitions
Munitions (cont.)
% OF TOTAL WAR OUTPUT MUNITIONS AND WAR CONSTRUCTION)
30
Aircroft and
20
Equipment
Miscellaneous
Munitions
20
Novy Vessels
10
10
Merchant Ships
Ground Army
Equipment
%OF TOTAL WAR OUTPUT (MUNITIONS AND WAR CONSTRUCTION)
o
0
1940
1941
1942
1943
1940
1941
1942
1943
Combat vehicles, ammunition, antisub program rise, big ship percentage drops.
10
15
Ground Army
Naval Vessels and Equipment
8
Other Items
10
6
Ammunition
4
Major Combot
5
Artillery
2
Combat Vehicles
Antisub
0
0
1940
1941
1942
1943
1940
1941
1942
1943
Actual through February: 3rd and 4th quorter schedules for 1943
WAR PROGRESS
4 CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
WAR OUTPUT RECOVERS FROM JANUARY DROP
But some major groups are still below December.
Total Munitions
Aircraft and Aircraft Munitions
5000
5000
1500
Preliminary
1500
Value delivered or put n place
Preliminory
Value delivered.
4000
4000
1000
1000
3000
3000
2000
2000
500
500
1000
1000
o
0
0
o
J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F
J F M A M J J A S o N D J F
1942
1943
1942
1943
Total Airplanes
Ground Army Weapons*
600
600
300
300
Volue delivered
Proliminary
Value delivered
Preliminary
400
400
200
200
VALUE DELIVERED OR PUT IN PLACE-MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
200
200
o
o
J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F
VALUE DELIVERED OR PUT IN PLACE-MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
100
100
0
o
J F M A M J J A S o N D J F
1942
1943
1942
1943
Combat Vehicles
Ground Army Ammunition
400
400
300
300
Volue delivered
Volue delivered
****
Preliminary
300
300
VALUE DELIVERED OR PUT IN PLACE-MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
200
200
200
Preliminary
200
100
100
100
100
0
0
0
0
J F M A M J J A S o N D J F
J F M A M J J A S o N D J F
1942
1943
1942
1943
Noval and Army Vessels and Equip.
Merchant Ships
1000
1000
300
300
Volue put in place
Preliminary
Volue put in place
Preliminary
⑇
800
....
800
200
200
600
600
400
400
100
100
200
200
o
o
0
o
J F M A M J J A S o N D J F
J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F
1942
1943
1942
1943
"Artillery and equipment, small orms and infantry wedpons, anticircraft guns and equipment
WAR PROGRESS
14 CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
nificant. For, in any period of indus-
Thus the early theory of OPACS (be-
trial expansion, producers' goods go
fore it became OPA) seems only partially
up with the best of them. During the
justified. Though producers' goods have
1935-37 production boom, producers'
been held in rein much more sharply than
goods increased 17%, consumers' goods
consumers' goods, the rise in prices
only 9%. But in the war-created expan-
did get through to the retail counter.
sion from January, 1940, to date, the
For this, however, there is an expla-
relationship was reversed: Consumers'
nation: farm prices, which for so long
goods rose 36%, producers' goods 23%.
were virtually uncontrolled.
SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS
Employment National Income - Federal Finance
Same
Same
Latest
Preceding
2 Months
6 Months
Year
Month
Month
Months
Month
Ago
Ago
Ago
1939
1937
Nonagric. employment (thousands)
p38,437
r38,478
38,348
36,346
35,926
30.932
30,270
Durable goods mfg.
08,752
r8,591
8,439
7,702
7,107
4,922
4,961
Nondurable goods mfg.
p6,684
r6,722
6.794
6,431
6,456
5,824
5,484
Government
05.713
r5,672
5.520
4,958
4,535
4,023
3,897
Other
p17,288
+17,493
17,595
17,255
17.828
16,163
15,928
Federal civilian employment (thousands)
p2,780
r2.726
2,600
2,098
1,560
n.a.
n.a.
War total
pl,909
r1,837
1,693
1,243
739
n.a.
n.a.
War Department
pl,216
r1,173
1,049
731
409
n.a.
n.a.
Navy Department
p548
531
514
416
282
n.s.
n.a.
Other war agencies
0145
133
130
96
48
n.a.
n.a.
Nonwar total
p871
r889
907
855
821
n.a.
n.a.
Income payments (million dollars)
10,394
510,576
r10,243
r8,670
r8,111
5.977
5,689
Salaries and wages
7,407
r7,263
r6,984
r6,320
r5,612
4,057
3,814
Manufacturing, mining,
construction, agriculture
5,948
r5,866
r5.725
5,279
r4,769
3.379
3,200
Government
1,435
r1,369
r1,229
r983
r764
545
495
Other
24
28
30
58
79
133
119
Other income payments
2,987
r3,313
+3,259
r2,350
+2,499
1,920
1,875
Income payments, annual rate (adjust
ed for seasonal, billion dollars)
124.9
r121.3
r118.2
r109.6
r98.3
73.8
70.0
Treasury gen'l fund (billion dollars)
Expenditures total
6.50
6.36
5.94
4.53
2.54
0.83
0.64
War
5.82
6.04
5.48
3.83
1.85
-
-
Nonwar
.68
0.32
0.46
0.70
0.69
0.83
0.64
Revenues total
2.70
0.60
0.61
2.49
1.21
0.52
0.82
Income taxes
1.97
0,20
0.21
2.09
0.77
0.32
0.49
Other
0.73
0.40
0.40
0.40
0.44
0.20
0.33
War bond sales
1.01
.74
.94
.63
0.53
-
-
Net debt
97.63
93.03
55.01
69.43
54.38
39.47
34.31
Gov't-guaranteed obligations
4.30
4.26
4.26
4.57
6.32
5.70
4.64
*November, except federal finance figures, which are for December. n.a. Not available. P Preliminary. r Revised.
MARCH 12, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL. 5
dominate the war program asa whole dur-
gate war output is also plainly indi-
ing February. The tooling-up phase is
cated; they run about 3% of the total
definitely on the wane. Thus construc-
value today and are scheduled to hold
tion, including military installations,
this share during the rest of the year.
continues to take a decreasing share of
Antisubmarine vessels, however, are
aggregate output (chart, page 3).
scheduled to rise until percentagewise
their proportion in the total war out-
URGENCY RATING FOR PLANES
put is almost doubled. Remaining naval
On the other hand, aircraft contin-
items (including troop transports, equip-
ues to account for an increasingly large
ment, naval maintenance, guns and fire
part of the total war program--munitions
control, ammunition, torpedoes, mines,
and war construction. This accords
etc.) have been running about 10% of
with the high wartime urgency rating
all war output, but are scheduled to
accorded airplanes, especially heavy
drop sharply later in the year.
bombers.
In all cases, of course, the marked
ANTISUBS SHARE SPOTLIGHT
decrease in construction tends to boost
In short, both in dollar totals and
the percentage levels of all direct ord-
in percentages, two programs are in the
nance items--as the charts on page 3
spotlight for rapid expansion: combat
make plain. But combat vehicles rise
aircraft and antisubmarine vessels.
only in line with total munitions and
But of course individual programs, not
war construction as a whole, running
sufficiently large to be included among
along about 5% of the total.
the major groupings analyzed in the chart
The relatively reduced importance of
on page 3, will also show up strongly
major combat vessels relative to aggre-
in rate of increase. Among such pro-
PRODUCTION PROGRESS- Preliminary
Value delivered or put in place millions of dollars.
February
%
% Change
January
February
Feb Prelim.
Preliminary
Actual
Change
Schedule
*
vs. Schedule
Total munitions and construction
$5,400
$5,173
+ X
$5,854
- 8%
Total munitions
4,330
4,025
+ 8
4,660
- 7
Combat munitions (a)
3,529
3,266
+ 5
3,831
- 8
Aircraft and related munitions
1,427
1,295
+10
1,495
- 5
Ground Army munitions (b)
995
896
+11
954
+
Naval and Army vessels and equipment
843
820
+ 3
1,062
-21
Merchant vessels
264
255
+ 4
320
-17
Combat planes
450
366
+23
515
-13
Service combat planes
36
39
8
48
-25
Aircroft ordnonce
119
111
7
121
- 2
Combot vehicles
255
211
+21
272
- 6
Guns and equipment (c)
303
277
+ 9
297
+2
Army ammunition
279
279
0
256
+ 9
Ground signal equipment
158
129
+23
129
+23
*As of February 1. (a) Fighting Items: Aircraft and aircraft munitions; ground aray ordnance and ground sig-
nal equipment; naval, aray, and merchant vessels and equipment. (b) Ground aray ordnance and ground signal
equipment. (c) Tank cannon; artillery and equipment: antiaircraft guns and equipment; small area and 1a-
fantry weapons.
6
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
grams are bombs, radar, and certain
in the final quarter of 1943.
types of guns and ammunition.
And in individual programs, the rate
One overall conclusion is indicated
of gain will have to be even greater.
by the February performance. A major
As noted in War Progress last week, air-
task still lies ahead. Though munitions
craft is a particular case in point.
output, based on a 30-day month, ran at
February output must more than double
a rate of $4,650,000,000, it still must
by December, 1943, to attain the 8-L
rise considerably to attain the rate
goal. In merchant ships, though the rise
required to meet the average monthly out-
is not so great, still it is substantial
put of nearly $7,000,000,000 scheduled
(WP-Mar5'43,p6).
Qualitative Question in Steel
Total output in 43 will exceed prewar levels
Nor is that all. Output of high-grade
by 75%, but pinch is in specially treated
carbon steel has just about paralleled
steels - alloys and high-grade carbon-
the growth in alloy steels (though de-
required for munitions purposes.
finitive statistics are not available).
The result is that 30,000,000 tons of
BACK IN PREWAR 1939, U.S. steel mills
steel today are high-quality-four times
turned out 52,600,000 tons of ingot steel.
the 7,000,000 tons of prewar days and
This year, output will run to 91,000,-
one out of every three tons melted. Even
000 tons-possibly more. That 38,400,-
so, there is not enough high-grade steel
000-ton increase in itself constitutes
to go around.
a sizable boost--75%-in the load on
steel-making facilities. Yet it hardly
WAR CALLS FOR QUALITY
indicates the full magnitude of the in-
Quality steels are needed for a wide
creased load.
range of munitions products and parts--
For back in 1939, six out of every
aircraft tubing, aircraft engine crank-
seven tons of steel were ordinary carbon
shafts, bullet cores, armor-piercing
steel. Only one out of each seven tons
shells, etc. (table, page 8). And the
was "high-quality." The special require-
rapid expansion of the munitions program
ments of steel for munitions purposes
as a whole from $32,500,000,000 last year
has more than doubled that impact.
to more than $70,000,000,000 (with extra
emphasis on aircraft) this year, is it-
ALLOY SHARE RISES
self a commentary on the demand for spe-
The effect is readily traceable in
cially treated steel.
the rising proportion of alloy steel to
Special demands--for substitution--
total steel output, as follows:
are always pressing down on the supply.
Since steel is the country's greatest
Alloy
Total
% Alloy
volume metal--91,000,000 tons as against
(Million tons)
copper's 3,000,000 and aluminum's 1,-
1939
3.2
52.6
6%
500,000--it is being called upon to serve
1940
5.0
66.8
8
as a replacement metal. When copper be-
1941....
8.2
82.5
10
comes scarce, engineers have looked to
1942
11.3
86.0
13
steel; similarly with aluminum, etc.
1943
15.0
91.5
16
A particular case in point is high-
MARCH 12, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL. 7
grade steel for shell and cartridge cases.
nace capacity for making alloy steels
In the laboratory stage for a year, this
will more than double in less than two
substitution is now developing into a
years--from 3,200,000 tons at the end of
large-scale operation: from 9,300 tons
1941 to 6,500,000 tons by September, 1943.
monthly in September to 22,000 tons today
Of this 3,300,000-ton increase, 2,500,-
and to 83,000 tons in July, or 1,000,-
000 comes from new construction and
000 tons ayear. And though this demand
800,000 from improved operating tech-
for cases constitutes only 3% of the
niques.
country's estimated total high-grade
steel output, it is sufficient to force
CONVERTING OPEN HEARTHS
a reallocation of supply. If ammunition
Similarly, open-hearth furnaces have
is to get the steel, some other products
been converted over to alloy steels. As
will have to do without it. That's how
against 7,971,000 tons in 1942, open-
tight the situation is.
hearth production of alloy steels is
And it cannot be alleviated by con-
estimated at 11,100,000 this year.
struction of new facilities. Already,
But the problem reaches beyond alloy
the country's high-grade steel capacity
open-hearth and electric furnaces. All
has been boosted sharply. Electric fur-
high-grade steels must be specially
STEEL'S EXPANSION
Total output is up from 4,700,000 tons per month in 1937, to an estimated
8,000,000 tons per month in last quarter of 1943. Emphasis on alloy steel.
10,000
10,000
MONTHLY AVERAGE
Carbon Steel Ingots
8000
Electric Furnoce
8000
Open Hearth
STEEL INGOTS-THOUSANDS OF NET TONS
6000
6000
4000
4000
STEEL INGOTS-THOUSANDS OF NET TONS
2000
2000
o
0
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1st Qtr.
2nd Qtr
3rd Qtr.
4th Qtr.
1943
Actual production through Jon. 1942; estimated copacity for remainder of 1943.
WAR PROGRESS
8
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
treated-poured into refractory-topped
chipping, and slow-cooling--constitute
ingot molds for hot-topping, which gives
the overall bottleneck to greater pro-
the steel a uniform density; outer sur-
duction of high-grade steels.
faces must be cleaned through chipping
Indeed, there is a further limit on
and, finally, the ingots must be cooled
the production of alloy steels--the al-
slowly in temperature-control facili-
loys themselves--nickel, chromium, tung-
ties. These facilities-hot topping,
sten, vanadium. Already, the scarcity
of alloys has necessitated "stretching"
--using less and less alloy per ton of
WHERE ALLOY STEELS GO
steel. At the same time, substitute al-
OF THE 1,175,000 TONS of alloys sched-
loys were sought. Molybdenum is a par-
uled in the January melt, 16.6% went
ticular example.
into aircraft uses, 13.6% was used
MOLY NOW SHORT
for ammunition, and the same amount
went for tank and combat vehicles.
At the outset of the war, molybdenum
Distribution of the alloy melt by
was in large supply; the tendency was to
uses follows:
use it instead of the scarcer alloys
(just as high-grade steel has replaced
% of
copper). But moly has been so aggres-
Purpose
Total
sively pushed as a substitute that today
Aircraft
16.6
(again like high-grade steel) require-
Ammunition (shot steel &
ments are outrunning supply, in this case
bombs)
13.6
by an estimated 15%.
Tank & combat vehicles
13.6
To meet the early shortage of alloys,
Motor transport
3.8
National Emergency (NE) steels were de-
Armor plate
8.0
veloped, using moly and other alloying
Artillery
3.7
elements. (However, this hasnot impaired
Bullet cores
1.7
the standards of usefulness: Present
Small arms
1.7
low-alloy armor plate takes the same
Other army uses
1.4
ballistic tests as the old analysis did.)
Heavy armor plate (Navy)
1.4
The average use of nickel per ton of al-
Other armor plate
1.4
loy steel has dropped from 17.6 pounds
Hi-tensile ship plate
2.6
in 1940 to 12.3 pounds last year and
Ships
2.0
chrome dropped from 27.9 pounds to 20.6
Heavy forgings (Diesel,
pounds (chart, page 9). These propor-
shafts, & crankshafts)
4.3
tions may drop even further this year;
Heavy guns
1.4
some NE steels are now being used in air-
Other naval uses
.3
craft tubing, and aircraft landing gear
Bearings
3.6
may be next.
Lend-lease (shot, aircraft
steels, etc.)
7.1
ORDINARY STEEL TIGHT
Maritime
.7
Ordinary steels are tight, too. Sup-
Exports
8
ply is inadequate to meet demand for such
Essential civilian
4.2
vital uses as railroads and industrial
Warehouses
1.4
maintenance, although some requirements
Other uses
3.7
have been declining--the drop in con-
struction, for example, is reducing de-
MARCH 12, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL
9
mand for structural steel and reinforc-
ments shift emphases from one product.
ing bars. And the main problem in ordi-
to another.
nary carbon steel is to schedule produc-
But all in all, at the outset of 1943,
tion of shapes, forms, and sizes--an ex-
one-third of the nation's steel--the
tremely difficult job, since shifting
high-quality--is about two-thirds of the
quarter-to-quarter munitions require-
nation's steel problem.
SUBSTITUTION IN STEEL ALLOYS
Use of molybdenum rises, displacing nickel, chrome, and vanadium.
150
20
400
35
Nickel
Chromium
Pounds per Ton
300
30
100
of Alloy Steels
15
Pounts per Ton
of Alloy Steels
200
25
50
ю
TOTAL CONSUMPTION IN ALLOY STEELS-MILLIONS OF POUNDS
Consumption
0
n
5
1935
'36
'37
38
39
40
'41
1942
POUNDS CONSUMED PER TON OF ALLOY STEELS
TOTAL CONSUMPTION IN ALLOY STEELS-MILLIONS OF POUNDS
100
20
Consumption
o
n
15
1935
36
'37
38
'39
'40
'41
1942
5
0.8
40
3.0
Vanadium
Molybdenum
4
0.7
POUNDS CONSUMED PER TON OF ALLOY STEELS
30
2.5
3
0.6
Pounds per Ton
Consumption
of Alloy Steels
20
2.0
2
0,5
Pounds per Ton
10
1.5
I
of Alloy Steels
0.4
Consumption
o
0.3
o
1.0
1935
36
37
38
'39
'40
'41
1942
1935
'36
'37
38
'39
40
'41
1942
WAR PROGRESS
THE SHORTAGE OF NICKEL, CHROME, AND VANADIUM IN
21.8%; AND THE NET STOCKPILE OF 6,000,000 LBS., EX-
1940 LED TO THE SUBSTITUTION OF MORE PLENTIFUL MO-
CLUDING WORKING INVENTORIES, WILL FILL ONLY PART
LYBDENUM AS AN ALLOY IN STEEL. AS A RESULT, USAGE
OF THE GAP. IT IS HARD TO REVERSE THE SUBSTITUTION
OF NICKLE DROPPED FROM 17.6 LBS. PER TON OF ALLOY
PROGRAM-NICKEL, CHROME, AND VANADIUM CONT INUE TIGHT.
STEEL IN 1940 TO 12.3 IN 1942, CHROME DECLINED FROM
EITHER EXPORTS, WHICH CALL FOR 30% OF 1943 REQUIRE-
27.9 LBS. TO 20.6, AND VANADIUM FROM .43 LBS. TO
MENTS, WILL HAVE TO BE CUT, OR THE USE OF MOLYBDENUM
.36. NOW DEMAND FOR MOLYBDENUM IS UP so SHARPLY
IN MILITARY STEELS (TAKING 55% OF 1943 REQUIREMENTS)
THAT ESTIMATED 1943 REQUIREMENTS EXCEED SUPPLY BY
WILL HAVE TO BE REDUCED.
10
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
Lend-Lease: More Guns, Less Butter
Early emphasis was on agricultural products,
United States shipped mainly "butter"--
but military shipments have come up from
agricultural products. In 1942, exports
one-fifth to more than half the total. Ex-
consisted chiefly of "guns." " Thus, al-
ports run to $540,000,000 monthly.
though all types of lend-lease shipments
increased sharply (chart, below), the
ALTHOUGH the lend-lease program started
proportion of agricultural products
in the spring of 1941, it did not de-
dropped from 47% at the end of 1941 to
velop real momentum until 1942, when
18% in January, 1943. Meanwhile, military
British dollar balances in the United
shipments--ordnance, combat and other
States were running low and direct pur-
vehicles, and aircraft--jumped from about
chases of munitions and goods from this
one-fifth to more than one-half the to-
country had begun to fall off. At the
tal. Industrial goods and watercraft
same time, accelerated production of mu-
as a proportion of the total have stood
nitions, metals, and machinery increased
still--29% at the end of 1941 and 31%
the volume of American war goods avail-
today.
able for export.
Today lend-lease exports have at-
RUSSIA'S SHARE CLIMBS
tained a record high and a steady level.
In 1941, lend-lease helped the British,
For four months, lend-lease goods have
Dutch, Chinese, and others fighting the
left the United States at a rate of about
Axis; exports to Russia, which began late
$540,000,000 monthly, three and one-half
in the year, were negligible--only $500,-
times the volume in the last quarter of
000. The bulk--77%-went to the United
1941.
Kingdom. Last year, 28% of all lend-
With the expansion of the program went
lease exports went to Russia. The United
changes in its composition. In 1941, the
Kingdom's share fell to 40%; however,
LEND-LEASE EXPORT SUMMARY
600
Total Military Exports
600
Total Exports
All Other
Monthly Average
Russia
Other British
400
United Kingdom
400
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
Monthly Average
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
200
200
0
Qtr
1st.
Qtr.
2nd.Qtr.
0
3rd Qtr.
4th.Qtr.
Jon."
1941
4th Qtr.
Ist.Qtr
2nd.Qtr.
3rd. Qtr.
1942
4th.Qtr.
Jan
1943
"Average of Dec 1942 and Jon 1943
1941
1942
1943
WAR PROGRESS
MARCH 12, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL
11
KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK
Lotest
Preceding
Month
6 Months
Year
Week
Week
Ago
Ago
Ago
Wor program Checks paid (millions of dollars)
1,516
1,431
1,417
1,254
641
Wor bond soles (millions of dollars)
152
273
182
167
160
Commodity prices (August 1939=100)
28 Bosic commodities
176.7
176.0
174.6
167.5
165.9
Controlled
162.4
r162.5
162.1
161.2
162.2
Uncontrolled
213.2
210.6
206.7
183.5
175.5
Nonferrous metal scrop
117.5
117.5
117.5
115.8
132.5
Textile scrop
172.6
172.2
172.8
171.1
175.3
Petroleum corloadings (no of tank cars)
Total
52,475
52,239
52,721
55,234
50,768
Movement into East
25,870
26,592
25,812
27,442
10,073
Exports (no. of freight cors unloaded for export Friday)
Atlantic Coost ports
1,327
1,406
1,223
1,612
1,630
Gulf Coast ports
459
448
335
287
478
Pocific Coost ports
1,003
883
888
626
360
Unused steel capacity (% operations below copacity)
0.9
1.8
0.7
3.6
2.6
Department store soles (% change from 0 year ago)
14
26
19
26
28
I Revised
the portion going to other parts of the
In the last two months, Great Britain
British Empire jumped from 19% to 29%.
and Russia have been getting mainly in-
Russian shipments amounted to $1,315,-
dustrial products and foodstuffs, though
000,000 during 1942, compared with $2,-
large amounts of watercraft, ordnance,
440,000,000 for the United Kingdom, $1,-
and other munitions are being sent to
495,000,000 for other parts of the Brit-
both countries. In December and January,
ish Empire, $63,000,000 for China, and
for example, Russia obtained five mer-
$70,000,000 for all other countries. The
chant vessels, 200 fighter planes, many
current order of lend-lease countries
bombers, 80 tanks, in addition to over
in volume of monthly shipments follows:
20,000 trucks, 1,700 motorcycles, and
about 1,800 scout cars.
Dec. '42-Jan. '43
The bulk of exports to British terri-
Average
tory in Africa and the Far East consists
(Millions)
of industrial products and combat muni-
United Kingdom
$184.8
tions.
Russia
159.2
In December and January, British
Egypt
51.6
forces in Egypt, India, Australia, and
India
43.9
New Zealand received nearly 400 fighter
Australia & New Zealand
39.2
planes and more than 750 tanks.
Iraq & Iran
18.0
Varying quantities of lend-lease
Union of South Africa
9.6
goods are sent to Latin American repub-
Brazil
2.8
lics. Brazil, however, has been getting
Turkey
1.9
about $1,500,000 per month, almost as
Nigeria
1.8
much as all the rest combined.
Belgian Congo
1.2
Exports to Turkey, averaging $1,900,-
China
0.7
000 per month, have trebled since last
12
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
WHERE THE LEND-LEASE SHIPMENTS GO
Military Goods
Nonmilitary Goods
140
200
Ordnance and Ammunition
Industrial and Other Goods
Monthly Average
All Other
120
I80
Russio
Other British
100
United Kingdom
160
Monthly Average
80
140
60
120
40
100
20
80
0
60
4th Qtr
Ist
Qtr.
2nd Qtc
3rd
Qtr.
4th
Qtc
Jan.
*
1941
1942
1943
80
40
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
Aircraft and Parts
(Excluding Flyoways)
Monthly Average
60
20
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
40
o
4th Qtc
Ist
Qtr
2nd Qtc
3rd
Qtc
4th Qtr
Jon.*
1941
1942
1943
20
140
Agricultural Products
Monthly Average
o
120
4th Qtr.
1st
Qtr.
2nd
Qtr.
3rd
Qtr.
4th
Qtr.
Jon.*
1941
1942
1943
100
100
Tanks and Other Vehicles
Monthly Average
80
BO
60
60
40
40
20
20
o
0
4th
Qtr.
ist
Qtr.
2nd Qtr.
3rd
Qtc
4th
Qtr.
Jan.
#
4th Qtr.
.
1st
Qtr.
2nd
Qtr.
3rd Qtr
4th
Qtc
Jan.
1941
1942
1943
1941
1942
1943
*Average of Dec. 1942, and Jon 1943.
WAR PROGRESS
MARCH 12,1943
CONFIDENTIAL 13
autumn, while shipments to China are at
preceding week's sales (Key Statistics of
the low level of $700,000 monthly.
the Week, page 11) were only 16.5% below
From the start of lend-lease through
the first week of February. Redemptions
January this year, exports amounted to
of Series E bonds were $28,000,000, against
$5,900,000,000 (excluding certain planes
$17,000,000 the first week in February.
flown away and ships sailing under their
own power). Services, such as ferrying
REPORTS ON REPORTS
bombers, training pilots, repairing, out-
Europe's Food
fitting, renting and chartering ships,
European production of crops and livestock
amounted to $1,200,000,000. All told,
by, countries is analyzed in The Food Situation
the British Empire has received two-
1942-43 in Continental Burope, the Soviet Union,
thirds of the goods and three-quarters
and North Africa (confidential; pp.78).
of the services; Russia, about 25% of
(U.S. Department of Agriculture, office of Foreign
the goods and 12% of the services; China
Agricultural Relations)
slightly more than 1% of each.
Phenol
Reduction in civilian requirements and a cor-
War Progress Notes
responding cut in the phenol expansion program
would result in considerable savings in "1- and 2-
degree* benzene, of which a shortage is antici-
FOR STATISTICIANS
pated in 1943. Phenol (confidential; pp.32) re-
WHICH LASTS LONGER, a suit of clothes
views sources, substitutes, and allocation.
or a tank? That question was raised
(War Production Board, office of Civillan Supply,
last week by a writer in the New York
Chemicals Branch)
Times, and it's a serious question re-
Germany's War Economy
Measures recently taken to boost Germany's
quiring a statistical answer. For years,
industrial output will be ineffective, according
statisticians have designated clothing,
to Changes in Germany's Industrial Organization,
food, etc. as "nondurable goods, and
1941-42 (restricted; pp.70). The report analyzes
planes, tanks, steel plates, motor vehi-
the German labor supply, pricing system, profit
cles, etc. as "durable goods." But war-
legislation, rationalization, cartellization, and
administrative organization.
time changes ideas of durability.
A
(Board of Economic Warfare, Enemy Branch)
suit on a civilian is apt to outlast a
Axis Locomotives
tank in combat.
How Germany husbands rolling stock is the sub-
ject of The Locomotive Posttion of Axis-Dominated
CIRCLE IN SUBSTITUTION
Europe (secret; PP-335): it gives statistical and
LAST SUMMER, bed manufacturers substi-
other data on European locomotives, workshops, and
roundhouses in 17 countries (Including Switzerland)
tuted for metal in bedspring frames.
as of the middle of 1942.
Since that time, the swing to lumber-
(office of Strategic Services, Research and Analysis
plus the loss of forest labor--has been
Branch)
so great that wood is now difficult to
British Price Control
obtain, but temporarily at least, re-
Observations on Rationing and Price Control in
rolled steel rails are actually in over-
Great Britain (confidential; pp.48) gives comments
supply. So bed builders are now asking
on various administrative, economic, and social
WPB to substitute steel for wood.
aspects of rationing, food distribution, utility
clothing, selective price control, etc.
(Dexter M. Keezer, Deputy Administrator, office of
BOND SALES AT TAX TIME
Price Administration)
DESPITE the approaching income tax dead-
Ethyl Alcohol
line, reported sales of war bonds for the
Long-t ime demands for Bthyl Alcohol (confiden-
week ending March 6, though far below the
tial; pp.93) will exceed the est imated supply unless
14
.CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
civilian allocations are reduced. But in the short
age of planes through combat and other losses.
run, alcohol production is taxing available storage
(office of Strategic Services, Research and Analysis
facilities. The storage problem won't be alleviated
Branch)
until the rubber program begins to take much larger
This record is an attempt to select from the
quantities of alcohol.
many documents coming to WAR PROGRESS those studies
(war Production Board, office of Civillan Supply)
which would be of most interest to readers. The
Die Luftwaffe
list is by no means comprehensive, and no attempt
German Aircraft Production, Losses, and Strength
has been made to evaluate reports for accuracy.
(secret; pp.57) estimates German aircraft produc-
Whether reports are available depends on the policy
tion by types and models, and destruction and wast-
of each individual agency.
SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS
Labor Force-Labor Turnover-Income Payments-Consumer Expenditures
Some
Some
Lotest
Preceding
2 Months
6 Months
Year
Month
Month
Month*
Month
Ago
Ago
Ago
1939
1937
LABOR FORCE-TOTAL (millions)
52.3
52.4
53.4
56.2
53.4
n.a.
n.a.
Employment
50.9
51.0
51.9
54.0
49.4
Mole
35.9
36.3
37.0
39.7
37.2
Femole
15.0
14.7
14.9
14.3
12.2
Unemployment
1.4
1.4
1.5
2.2
4.0
n.a.
n.a.
LABOR TURNOVER IN MFG. INDUSTRIES
(rate per hundred employees)
All manufacturing:
Accessions
8.28
6.92
8.14
8.28
6.87
4.09
4.60
Separations-Total
7.11
6.37
7.09
6.73
5.10
3.19
3.38
Quits
4.45
3.71
4.21
4.02
2.36
0.85
1.27
Military Separations
1.26
1.29
1.55
0.93
0.67
n.a.
n.a.
Aircraft
Quits
3.86
3.69
3.93
3.76
2.82
0.72
1.83
Military Separations
1.70
1.78
2.22
1.34
1.04
n.a.
n.a.
Shipbuilding
Quits
6.98
4.49
5.41
4.67
3.25
0.50
0.84
Military Separations
1.80
1.95
2.43
1.07
0.70
n.a.
n.a.
INCOME PAYMENTS-TOTAL (million dollars
10,769
11,524
10,593
9,685
8,487
5,763
5,867
Solaries and Woges
7,627
7,635
7,463
6,723
5,719
3,663
3,649
Manufacturing, mining, agriculture, constr.
5.957
6,084
5.998
5,630
4,838
2,951
3,005
Government
1,651
1,528
1,441
1,048
804
524
484
Military
738
673
606
409
163
35
31
Nonmilitary
913
855
835
639
641
489
453
Other
19
23
24
45
77
188
160
Other income payments
3,142
3,889
3,130
2,962
2.768
2,100
2,218
Income payments, annual rate (odjusted for
seasonal, billion dollars)
132.0
130.1
127.2
115.9
104.5
68.8
70.9
CONSUMER EXPENDITURES (million dollars)
p8,326
7,187
7,499
6,571
7.557
6,152
n.a.
Goods
p5.966
4,830
5,178
4,277
5,335
4,220
n.s.
Services
p2,360
2,357
2,321
2,294
2,222
1,932
n.s.
*Labor Force, February: Labor Turnover and Income Payments, January: Consumer Expenditures. December.
Revised
back to January, 1939. n.s. Not available. P Preliminary.
JANUARY 8, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL 15
PRODUCTION PROGRESS 22390099
Aircraft and Aircraft Munitions
enoitinuM
MoroniA
Aircraft and Aircraft Munitions
MororiA
Total Planes
Combol, Service, and Trainer
3500
2000
1943 Objective
1943 Objective
$28.6 Billion
$13.2 Billion
3000
1500
2500
1943 Forecost
1943 Forecost
$ 28.6 Billion
$13.2 Billion
2000
1000
Forecost
1500
Forecost
1000
Preliminary
Actual
500
Actual
500
o
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
Combat Planes
Service Planes
1500
200
1943 Objective
1943 Objective
$11.4 Billion
$1.1 Billion
VALUE DELIVERED DELIVERED-MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
150
1000
1943 Forecost
1943 Forecast
$11.4 Billion
$1.1 Billion
100
Forecast
500
Preliminary
Forecost*
VACUE DELIVERED MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
50
Actual
Actual
Preliminary
0
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
Trainers
Gliders and Lighter-thon-Air - Craft
70
50
60
Preliminary
40
Forecast
Forecost"
50
1943 Objective
1943 Objective
Actual
$ 07 Billion
$0.5 Billion
30
40
30
20
1943 Forecast
1943 Forecost
$ 0.7 Billion
$ 0,5 Billion
20
:
10
10
Actual
0
o
1942
1943
1942
1943
# Bosed on December I procurement schedules
WAR PROGRESS
MARCH 12, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL 15
PRODUCTION PROGRESS
Ground Army Munitions
Ground Army Ordnance and Ground
Signal Equipment
Combat Vehicles and Equipment
2000
500
400
1500
Schedule
.
Schedule
#
300
1000
Actual
200
Actual
500
100
o
o
1942
1943
1942
1943
Combat Vehicle Signal Equipment and
Combat Vehicles
Tank Cannon
40
500
VALUE DELIVERED-MLLIONS OF DOLLARS
400
30
Schedule
300
Actudi
Actual
20
Preliminary
200
Schedule
VALUE DELIVERED MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
10
100
o
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
Army Ground Signal Equipment
Army Ammunition- Total
200
800
160
600
Schedule
Schedule
*
120
400
Actual
80
Actual
Preliminary
200
40
0
o
1942
1943
1942
1943
.
February schedule.
WAR PROGRESS
16 CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
PRODUCTION PROGRESS
Ground Army Munitions (continued)
Artillery and Equipment
Artillery and Tank Cannon Ammunition
200
300
150
Schedule
Schedule
200
100
Actual
Actual
100
50
o
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
Antiaircraft Guns and Equipment
Antiaircraft Ammunition
200
50
VALUE DELIVERED - MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
40
150
Schedule
Schedule
.
.
30
Actual
100
20
Actual
VALÕE DELIVERED - MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
50
10
0
O
1942
1943
1942
1943
Small Arms and Infontry Weapons
Small Arms and Infantry Weapon
Ammunition
100
400
80
300
Schedule
*
Schedule
60
200
Actual
40
Actual
100
20
0
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
#
February schedule
WAR PROGRESS
The President
a
WAR PROGRESS
Confidential
(British Secret)
DW- net 12-18-74 29 1973 # on
DUE MAR
Housing-A Production Problem
Number 131
March 19, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL
NUMBER 131
WAR PROGRESS
MARCH 19, 1943
For Want of a Home, Production
Is lost. Housing for in-migrant workers in crowd-
cancies at all, for the empty dwellings
ed war-plant areas is a major problem. Dwell-
may be either substandard or unfit for
ings built for newcomers go to local residents,
habitation. And with the swift un-
upsetting NHA plans.
doubling of families, a record marriage
rate, and a flood of war workers stimu-
SIX MONTHS before the fall of France,
lating demand, new building has not been
slightly more than four out. of every
able to keep pace with requirements-
100 urban dwelling units in the United
despite the fact that the yearly supply
States were unoccupied, but today--after
of new units (including trailers and
more than three years of arms expansion
conversions) has been holding at around
--average vacancies have dropped below
80% of 1941, the peak year since 1925.
the 2-per-100 mark, the lowest point
in 20 years.
DECLINE OF THE DORMITORY
To stretch critical materials, single
NO VACANCIES
worker dormitories--which take from one
Just as raw materials, machines, and
half to one-fourth less metal than is
manpower have run short, sohas housing
required for family units-comprised
gone from abundance to scarcity. Here's
13% of all new dwellings (around 635,
how vacancies in about a dozen repre-
000) started last year. But as the
sentative war production areas have
armed services grow larger-and single
shrunk since April, 1940:
men are drawn out of civilian activi-
ties, the usefulness of dormitories de-
% Gross Vacancy
clines. The 1943 housing program calls
Apr.'40
Today
for only 3% fewer dwelling units than
Area
a year ago; dormitories will be off 30%
Baltimore
3.7%
1.4%
(chart, page 3).
Birmingham
2.4
1.6
Bridgeport
2.1
0.3
PRICE IN PRODUCTION
Chicago
3.8
1.8
Various-but by no means exceptional
Detroit
3.5
1.1
--effects of the tight housing condi-
New Haven
3.5
1.4
tions follow:
New Orleans
3.5
0.4
Norfolk
3.0
1.0
Repair of warships has been de-
Oklahoma City
7.7
2.1
layed.
Portland (Ore.)
5.8
1.2
Construction workers have had to
San Diego
6.3
0.8
sleep in automobiles.
Seattle
5.8
2.1
Troops, instead of longshoremen,
Springfield (Mass.).
4.5
0.9
have had to load ships at embark-
Tampa
4.0
0.9
ation ports.
Wichita
4.4
1.8
Recruitment of out-of-town labor
for merchant shipyards has fre-
In many cases, vacancies are not va-
quently been deferred.
2
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
Munitions plants have often lost
tough job. Thus, when the Army cut its
as many workers as they have been
ordnance program late last year, esti-
able to hire.
mates of peak labor needs at one Indiana
Many war workers must travel from
ordnance works were slashed from 8,000
50 to 100 miles daily to and from
to 2,300--and 500 family units planned
their jobs.
for the vicinity last summer were can-
And 2,000 war-worker families on
celled. Local conditions also may af-
the West Coast are living in con-
fect housing requirements. Last year.
verted chicken coops.
300 family units were programmed for a
powder plant in Missouri. But when the
Shortages in critical materials are
supply of resident local labor (already
directly related to housing undersupply,
housed) began to increase unexpectedly,
despite war standards which have cut
the program was revised and almost half
the average amount of metal used in new
of the dwellings were discontinued.
family dwellings some 7C%-from around
9,300 pounds to 2,500 pounds. Delayed
IM-MIGRANT OCCUPATION
deliveries of such hard-to-dispense-
But the war-worker housing problem
withmetal items as copper wire and steel
reaches beyond the programming, prior-
water pipe have repeatedly lengthened
ities, and building-time stages. The
construction periods, thus delaying oc-
big question is: Once new homes are
cupancy on well over halfof all public
built, how can it be assured that in-
housing projects. In many individual
migrant war workers will occupy them?
instances, scheduled building times have
Priorities assistance was original-
been doubled.
ly given to homes for "war workers," in-
Because of constantly shifting war
cluding servicemen. But the fact is
requirements, scheduling new housing
that out of 68,000 families occupying
accommodations has been a particularly
priority-built dwellings (completed be-
tween May 31 and October 31, 1942) in
137 war production areas, only 18,700,
IN THIS ISSUE:
or 28%, were in-migrant war-worker fam-
ilies.
FOR WANT OF A HOME, PRODUCTION IS LOST
1
KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK
4
LOCAL WORKERS FIRST
WAR ON CONSUMER CREDIT
The following table indicates the
5
work status of the occupants of these
WAY OF MOST METALS IN WARTIME
6
homes:
SUNDAY PUNCH
8
Local war workers
47%
WAR PROGRESS NOTES
9
Local nonwar workers
19
FARM MANPOWER STANDARDS SET FOR DRAFT
10
In-migrant nonwar workers
6
WAR ACROSS THE BORDER
In-migrant war workers
28
12
REPORTS ON REPORTS
13
In other words, 66% of the homes
SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS
13
were snagged by local residents seeking
better accommodations at regulated rent-
PRODUCTION PROGRESS (ARMY, NAVY, MERCHANT
SHIPS)
14-16
als and selling prices. Moreover, as
a measure of the housing going to new-
MARCH 19, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL 3
comers employed in munitions industries
Agency, since early 1942, has made no
--and industries related to the produc-
provision for them in programming war-
tion of fighting stuff-the 28% occu-
worker developments. Yet occupancy by
pancy by in-migrant war workers is over-
Army and Navy men and their families
stated. For at least one out of four
is geographically widespread, though
dwellings was actually taken by men in
percentagewise variations are large--
the armed forces.
from 1% to as high as 84%:
NEEDS OF SERVICEMEN
Durham, N.C
84%
This has introduced an unplanned-for
Leesville, La
79
pressure on the housing market. While
Joplin-Neosho, Mo
59
servicemen have been "eligible" for pri-
Columbus, Miss
47
ority-built homes, the National Housing
Norfolk-Portsmouth, Va
35
WAR HOUSING IS DOWN BUT NOT OUT
Plans for 1943 call for 614,000 additional dwelling units - including dormitories,
trailers, etc.
250
250
Dormitories
200
200
Trailers
150
150
Conversions?
100
100
New Houses and Apartments
50
50
DWELLING UNITS IN THOUSANDS
o
o
1 Qtr.
20fr.
3 Qtr.
Qtr
1Qfr
2 Qtr.
3 Qtr.
4 Qtc
I Qtr
2 Qtr.
3
Qtr.
Qtr.
1 Qte
2 Qtr.
3 Qtr.
4 Qtc
1940
1941
1942
1943
Six out of every ten will be publicly-financed, as against less than two out of
ten in 1940.
200
200
DWELLING UNITS IN THOUSANDS
Private
150
150
100
100
Public
50
50
0
o
I
Qtr.
2 Qtr.
3 Qtr.
4 Qtr.
1 Qtr.
2 Qtr.
3Qfr.
4 Qtr.
1 Qfr.
2 Qtr.
3 Qtr.
4 Qtr.
1 Qtc
2 Qtr.
3 Qtr.
4 Qtr
1940
1941
1942
1943
Only new houses and oportments programmed in 1940; no conversions programmed in 1941.
WAR PROGRESS
4
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK
Lotest
Preceding
Month
6 Months
Year
Week
Week
Ago
Ago
Ago
Wor program Checks poid (millions of dollors).
1,771
1,516
1,395
1,123
585
War bond soles (millions of dollars).
239
152
220
151
124
Commodity prices (August 1939 = 100)
28 Bosic commodities
176.4
176.7
174.6
168.0
166.1
Controlled
162.4
162.4
162.0
161.2
162.0
Uncontrolled
212.2
213.2
206.8
185.2
176.8
Nonferrous metal scrop
117.5
117.5
117.3
115.8
132.5
Textile scrop
173.7
172.6
172.9
171.0
175.7
Petroleum carloodings (no. of tank cors)
Total
50,364
52.475
52,197
54,312
54,737
Novement into East
25,832
25,870
27,168
27,495
13,536
Exports (no. of freight cors unloaded for export Friday)
Atlantic Coast ports
1,440
1,327
1,514
1,664
1,553
Gulf Coost ports
351
459
335
244
393
Pacific Coost ports
970
1,003
906
653
293
Unused steel copacity (% operations below copacity)
0.7
0.9
0.5
2.8
2.1
Department store soles (% change from o year ogo)
3
14
45
-3
24
Montgomery, Ala
20
the families of migrating servicemen or
Jacksonville, Fla
17
nonwar workers, the burden of housing
Charleston, S.C
12
them is merely transferred to existing
Dayton, Ohio
10
structures--and, invariably, some of
San Diego, Calif
7
these structures have been planned to
Dallas, Tex
6
house a specified proportion of incom-
Memphis, Tenn
5
ing civilian war workers.
Wilmington, Del
4
Kansas City, Kan
3
MARGIN OF NEW HOMES
Portland, Me
1
This year, for example, it is esti-
mated that in-migrant war workers will
The Army and Navy have taken due note
approximate 1,400,000 persons (after
of this competition for homes and have
allowing for Selective Service demands,
specifically agreed that the National
utilization of local labor, etc.). But
Housing Agency shall program only for
new accommodations--family units, dormi-
"indispensable in-migrant civilian war
tories; conversions, and trailers (in-
workers." What's more, priorities now
cluding relocations)--are being planned
being issued are only for homes that
for 614,000 persons, or 44%. In other
will be confined to this group. But
words, 56 out of every 100 workers are
that doesn't solve the overall problem
expected to find quarters in existing
of congestion in war production areas.
facilities. (Last year, the estimated
proportion was 75 out of every 100.)
BURDEN MERELY SHIFTED
Thus to the extent that migrating
Experience shows that when new ac--
members of the armed forces and nonwar
commodations are not made available to
workers rent or buy existing dwelling
MARCH 19, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL. 5
units this year in war production areas,
migrant war workers on the one hand and
they will unbalance the program asplanned.
those for whom no housing is being pro-
It is true that one of the major ad-
grammed-incoming servicemen and nonwar
ministrative jobs of the NHA is to see
workers-on the other.
that builders dispose of their priority-
built homes as called for in the new
INCREASING SERIOUSNESS
priorities agreements: to in-migrant
The crux of the matter is this: there
civilian war workers, and not to local
is an inverse relationship between the
residents, nonwar workers, or service-
concentration of war work and the avail-
men. However, even if these priorities
ability of homes; housing is shortest
agreements are enforced, that will not
where manpower needs are greatest. And
end the correlative problem of competi-
as the manpower problem becomes more
tion for existing dwellings between in-
acute, sowill the war housing problem.
WAR ON CONSUMER CREDIT
Regulation 'w' and cut in civilian output cause total debt to fall, despite rise
in retail sales.
10
6
Consumer Debt Total
Instalment Sale
and
8
sde
Debt
Charge Account Sole Debt
ACCOUNT
and
4
Loan
6
Credit
cash
OF
Retail Soles
instalment Cash Loon Debt
4
2
2
Instalment Sole Debt
o
0
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1939
1940
1941
1942
1939
1940
1941
1942
Biggest drop has been in instalment sale debt, led by automobiles, but
charge account volume also is off.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
4
5
4
3
Instalment Sole Debt
3
Nondurable Goods Soles
2
Automobile Sole Debt
2
1
Charge Account Sole Debt
I
Duroble Goods Soles
o
0
1939
1940
1941
1942
1939
1940
1941
1942
WAR PROGRESS
6
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
Way of Most Metals in Wartime
Once-plentiful molybdenum-used OS substi-
conservation measures have been intro-
tute for nickel, chrome, vanadium - now
duced.
in undersupply. U.S. studies ways to cut
Initially, in order to utilize molyb-
its use in alloy steels.
denum in place of nickel, chrome, and
vanadium, National Emergency (NE) steels
TERSELY, the 1943 molybdenum situation
were developed--with moly a principal
is this: Some 43,000,000 pounds are
alloying element. But now NE analyses
needed in alloy steels; another 9,000,-
are undergoing a change: wherever pos-
000 pounds are needed by foundries; and
sible, NE steels with low moly content
foreign requests run to 21,000,000 pounds
are being used; indeed, certain analyses
--a total of 73,000,000 pounds.
calling for large amounts of moly have
Supply, up 40% from 1941 (chart, page
been dropped altogether.
7) is figured at 69,000,000 pounds;
57,000,000 pounds are from new produc-
CUTTING MOLY CONTENT
tion and imports; the rest--some 12,-
In high-speed tool steels, a saving
000,000 pounds-constitutes the nation's
of 250,000 pounds of moly monthly will
stockpile, excluding the working inven-
be effected by switching from high moly
tories of processors and consumers.
content to a lower analysis. In bomb
tubing, moly content has been dropped
FROM OVER TO UNDERSUPPLY
from8 pounds per ton to 3 pounds, saving
Moly has gone the way of most metals
300,000 pounds per month. By eliminating
in wartime--from oversupply to under-
moly from .30-caliber bullet cores, 30,-
supply. When the war broke out, American
000 pounds monthly are being saved. And
steel mills used largely nickel, chrome,
so on.
and vanadium for alloying purposes, and
about two-thirds of American molybdenum
BUT CONSUMPTION RISES
output was shipped abroad. But as demand
But these economies have already been
for alloy steels for munitions mounted,
taken into account and do not go far
and as nickel, chrome, and vanadium be-
enough, as the following table suggests;
came scarce, more and more molybdenum
though molybdenum content per ton of
was called on to substitute. As 8. result,
steel is slated to drop this year, con-
molybdenum requirements (in millions of
sumption will rise sharply:
pounds) have gone up like this:
Lbs. of Moly
Domestic
Total
Lbs. of Moly
Per Ton of
Consumption
Exports
Demand
in Alloy Steels
Alloy Steels
1939
11.4
21.0
32.4
1939..
5,670,000
1.8
1940
18.7
6.6
25.3
1940..
9,740,000
2.0
1941
34.7
7.1
41.8
1941..
19,600,000
2.4
1942
45.7
15.9
61.6
1942..
34,859,000
3.1
1943 (Est.)
51.7
21.2
72.9
1943..
42,000,000
2.9
And today, to cover the impending 1943
The problem in molybdenum is to pre-
deficit of at least 4,000,000 pounds,
serve at least part of the U.S. stock-
MARCH 19, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL 7
pile--above the working inventories of
nadium are already tight, so it is not
processors and consumers. That
means
readily feasible to substitute any of
that estimated requirements of 73,000,
them for molybdenum. Conservation and
000 pounds will have to be pared perhaps
stretching are the necessary orders of
by 10,000,000 pounds. And even that 14%
the day for moly.
cut in requirements would mean a severe-
ly depleted stockpile--from 12,000,000
EXAMINING THE EXPORTS
pounds down to 6,000,000 pounds.
Experiments are being conducted to
reduce the molybdenum content of armor-
FORCED TO STRETCH
piercing shot; reducing moly content in
Moreover, getting molybdenum require-
.50-caliber bullet cores, if possible,
ments down to 63,000,000 pounds will be
would save 145,000 pounds per month. And
a major task. Nickel, chrome, and va- numerous other types of munitions items
MOLYBDENUM BALANCE SHEET
Domestic and foreign demands outrun new supply, thus depleting stocks.
80
BO
Domestic Use in Steel
Total Consumption
60
60
40
40
Exports
Domestic
20
20
MILLIONS OF POUNDS
o
0
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
EST.
EST.
80
80
New Supply
Stocks
*
MILLIONS OF POUNDS
60
60
Imports
Domestic
9,000,000 pounds working inventory
40
40
20
20
Deficit
0
0
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
EST.
a Data os of end of year.
EST.
WAR PROGRESS
16 CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
PRODUCTION PROGRESS
Aircraft and Aircraft Munitions (Continued)
Spare Engines, Propellers, Parts
Aircraft Ordnance Total
1000
200
1943 Objective
$6.96 Billion
800
Forecost
150
1943 Forecast
1943 Objective
$6.96 Billion
$2.07 Billion
600
Deficit
100
Forecost'
Actual
400
1943 Forecost
$202 Billion
Actual
50
200
0
o
1942
1943
1942
1943
Aircraft Armament
Aircraft Ammunition
60
150
VALUE DELIVERED-MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
50
Forecost
Forecost
40
1943 Objective
1943 Objective
100
$0.62 Billion
$1.45 Billion
Excess
30
Actual
Deficit
Actual
VALUE DELIVERED-MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
20
1943 Forecast
1943 Forecast
50
$0.55 Billion
$1.47 Billion
10
o
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
Aircraft Signal Equipment
Other Aircraft and Airbase Equipment and
Maintenance
175
400
150
Forecost
Forecast
300
125
1943 Objective
1943 Objective
$1.69 Billion
$422 Billion
100
Actuol
Deficit
200
75
1943 Forecast
1943 Forecost
$4.22 Billion
50
$1.66 Billion
Actual
100
25
0
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
. Bosed on December I procurement schedules.
WAR PROGRESS
8
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
will have to get along with less moly-
of some 200 boats, valued at around $77,-
bearing steel, or with carbon steel.
000,000 on April 1, 1942, it was pushed
Exports of ore, concentrates, and
up to about $110,000,000 in August, and
even molybdenum-alloy steels may also
to $118,000,000 in November. And on Feb-
be reduced. British and Russian air-
ruary 1, 1943, the total program stood
craft steel analyses melted in American
at $185,000,000, or well over 600 boats.
furnaces call for more molybdenum than
U.S. aircraftalloy steels. Also British
LANDING CRAFT PRIORITIES
shot steel bears a higher moly content
As with other phases of-the naval ships
than American shot steel. A metallur-
program, PT boats were required to stand
gical mission from Great Britaini is now
aside for the onrushing strategic land-
investigating the possibility of reduc-
ing craft program (WP-Decll'42,p and
ing the moly cóntent in its analyses.
deliveries have consistently lagged be-
All in all, moly has become a precious
hind schedules. In May, 1942, for ex-
war metal.
ample, the Navy didn't get a single ves-
sel of this type, though seven were sched-
Sunday Punch
uled, and in June only four were deliv-
ered. In July, deliveries rose to 13--
Little PT boats - hitting power proved in the
but that was 10 fewer craft than called
Pacific-get boost in program. But deliv-
for by the April 1 schedule.
eries log as urgency retings go to landing
In August, 1942, deliveries of PT boats
craft, destroyer escorts, etc.
were steppedup to 17 and thereafter (ex-
cept for October--a slack month in naval
IN THE 17 months preceding Pearl Harbor,
construction generally) the curve of de-
fewer than 50 motor torpedo boats had
liveries ascends with some consistency
been delivered to the U.S. Navy. But
(chart, page 9). In February of this
six of them were in Philippine waters
year 30 PTs were delivered, more than
when the Japs struck, and before the last
in any month since the program began and
of the squadron was expended early in
three times the number delivered in Feb-
April, 1942, the score against the enemy
ruary, 1942. Even so, February was about
read something like this:
17% below schedule.
One cruiser damaged and beached.
MORE "MOSQUITOS"
Two cruisers damaged by torpedo
hits.
Dollar value of total PT boat program
Two 5,000-ton ships sunk.
has more than doubled since April 1942.
One 10,000-ton tanker set afire.
200
200
Two landing barges bearing troops
sunk.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
150
150
Three bombers and one seaplane
destroyed by machine-gun fire.
100
100
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
Delivery of one general--MacArthur
--and 20 members of his staff from
50
50
Corregidor.
o
0
So the Navy began to stepupits sched-
Apr. I
Aug.
Nov I
Feb. I
1942
1943
ules on PT boats. From a total program
WAR PROGRESS
MARCH 19, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL 9
RISE AND FALL OF PT's
Climbing from last April's low, deliveries are scheduled to reach peak
this month, then taper off.
40
40
Schedule
30
30
NUMBER OF PT BOATS
Actual
20
20
NUMBER OF PT BOATS
10
10
o
0
A M J J A S 0 N 0 J F M A M J J A S o N D
1942
1943
WAR PROGRESS
Present schedules for the balance of
antisubmarine program (WP-Marl2'43,pl)_
the year call for stabilized deliveries
emphasis is placed on destroyer escort
--at slightly higher levels than have
vessels which now constitute more than
yet been attained--running through Sep-
half the value of the group that includes
tember, when the schedule turns down
aircraft escort vessels, minesweepers,
abruptly to 17 PTs in October and 10
minelayers, subchasers, Coast Guard cut-
each in November and December. If sched-
ters, etc., besides PT boats.
ules are realized, the year's output will
be almost two and a half times that of
War Progress Notes
1942.
Although motor torpedo boats can be
ONE COW, ONE "WAR UNIT"
used in antisubmarine warfare--they are
SOME 500,000 farm owners or workers have
equipped with depth charges--their ex-
been granted occupational deferments
ploits off the Philippines (during which
under standards worked out by the De-
the squadron in action sank 100 times
partment of Agriculture and approved by
its tonnage) and since then in the South
the War Manpower Commission. Another
Pacific suggest that their most dis-
2,500,000 cases await action by local
tinctive use is in direct attack against
Selective Service Boards.
enemy warships. Their hulls are of wood
The Department of Agriculture "defer-
construction and they have practically
ment" standards are somewhat along the
no protective armament. Offensively,
line of point rationing (chart, page 10).
they pack four torpedo tubes and four
The importance of the product (long
.50-caliber machine guns. Powered by
staple cotton is more important than
three Packard marine engines they are
short staple cotton) as well as the time
able to make more than 40 knots, and can
required in cultivation are taken into
easily outrun any warship on the water.
account. An acre of spinach counts as
Quoting They Were Expendable: "They 're
one "war unit" toward deferment, as
designed to roar in, let fly a Sunday
against 20 acres of wheat. Eight war
punch, then speed 'out, zigzagging to dodge
units constitute the standard for de-
the shells."
ferment; thus it's eight acres of spin-
Thus, in the currently spotlighted
ach (and most other fresh vegetables),
10 CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
FARM MANPOWER STANDARDS SET FOR DRAFT
Department of Agriculture grades crops and livesfock for draft boards. Deferment minimum
set at 8 acres for asparagus, spinach; etc., 40 for com; 160 for wheat, and so on.
MINIMUM ACRES DEFERRING ONE MAN
0
25
50
P
100
125
150
175
WHEAT
BARLEY, OATS, RYE, DRY PEAS
FLAXSEED, SOY BEANS
TAME HAY, GRAIN SORGHUMS
CORN, RICE, DRY BEANS
SHORT-STAPLE COTTON
FRUIT ORCHARDS (non-irrigated)
POTATOES, PEANUTS
LONG-STAPLE COTTON
ASPARAGUS, SPINACH, MOST
OTHER FRESH VEGETABLES
TOBACCO
GUAYULE (rubber)
WAR PROGRESS
as against 160 acres of wheat, or four
Some crops are regarded as "less
acres of spinach and 80 acres of wheat.
essential" and do not count as war units:
Livestock also counts toward defer-
they include cantaloupes, watermelon,
ment. One milk cow equals one unit,
popcorn, artichokes, celery (bleached),
eight milk COWB deferment, but it takes
eggplant, lettuce (iceberg), kohlrabi,
75 laying hens and ducks to amass one
cucumbers, horseradish, okra, radishes,
unit, and 600 to get a deferment rating.
rhubarb, garlic, leeks, squash, pumpkins.
The following table shows the number of
The "war unit" is not absolutely rig-
farm animals necessary to earn one de-
id. Draft boards can, in their discre-
ferment unit:
tion, defer farm workers who do not amass
eight units.
Milk cows
1
Incidentally, the Senate has passed
Sows
3
the Bankhead Bill which would defer all
Milk goats
3
men devoting substantially full time to
Beef cattle in farm herds
10
agriculture.
Beef cattle on the range
15
Beef cattle in feedlots
20
STATIC UNEMPLOYMENT
Feeder pigs (bought & sold
TWO YEARS AGO, the nation's unemployed
during the year)
30
numbered 7,200,000, but by February,
Sheep & goats in farm flocks
30
1942, this had been pulled down to 4,-
Sheep & goats on the range
45
000,000. Since then unemployment has
Turkeys & geese
40
continued to decrease but at a much slow-
Laying hens and ducks
75
er rate-the figures for the past two
Beef cattle grazed in fields 100
Lambs in feedlots
months remaining static at 1,400,000
160
(WP-Marl2'43,pl4). This suggests that
Broilers & ducks for market 600
the United States is getting down to
MARCH 19, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL. 11
the bottom of its unemployment stock-
store sales (Key Statistics of the Week,
pile. While the workers currently list-
page 4) increased 45% in the week imme-
ed as unemployed are not strictly speak-
diately following the order, they have
ing "unemployable," a good percentage
dropped steadily since, and, in the week,
of them may be regarded by employers
ending March 13, they were only 3% above
as undesirable for one reason or an-
last year's sales.
other-age, infirmity, poor health, lack
of energy or training, etc.
SALES UP, DEBT DOWN
CUSTOMARILY, consumers go into debt
HELIUM SHORT
when their incomes are rising. They
TO MEET the expanding antisubmarine pa-
feel secure in their jobs; they are
trol program for Navy blimps (WP-Jan15
willing to buy this auto or that piano
'43,pil), monthly capacity for produc-
on the installment plan. On the other
ing helium will have to rise from 8,-
side of the counter, merchandisers and
000,000 to 20,000,000 cubic feet by the
finance companies are more willing to
end of the year. New helium-producing
extend credit to people whose incomes
facilities, now under construction, are
are rising.
behind schedule and are competing with
Anticipating a consequent big jump
the rubber and high-octane gas programs
in buying on time, the Reserve Board as
for plant equipment. The Bureau of Aer-
far back as September, 1941, promulgated
onautics has requested higher priority
Regulation "W." Not only did it shorten
ratings for the equipment involved.
the time of payments on installment
sales, but also it increased down pay-
CARIBBEAN BOTTLENECK
ments. In addition, the regulation
THE PLAN to relieve the critical ship-
called for prompt payments of charge
ping shortage in the Caribbean area
accounts.
through building wooden sailing vessels
has been abandoned in favor of immedi-
LIMITATION ORDERS
ate construction in Brazil of 20 motor-
The effect of Regulation "W" is read-
driven wooden cargo vessels (500 dead-
ily discernible in the chart on page 5.
weight tons capacity). Lumber, metal
Consumer debt began to decline almost
fastenings, and paint can be obtained
immediately. But another factor was
in Brazil, but engines must come from
involved. Shortly thereafter, the pro-
this country. The design calls for a
duction of automobiles, refrigerators,
heavy-duty 450 hp Diesel engine; U.S.
and other consumers' durable goods sold
manufacturers of this sized engine are
largely on time was curtailed by limi-
tied up until the end of 1943 on work
tation orders.
for the Navy, Army, lend-lease, etc.
The net effect has been a 27% drop
However, a 600 hp model can apparently
in outstanding consumer debt, despite
be obtained; but if this bigger motor
a sharp rise in retail sales. The drop
is used, the cargo vessels must be re-
in automobile debt was 78%. Charge ac-
designed.
count debt dropped 15%.
Installment cash loans (primarily
SCARE BUYING ABATES
through personal-loan companies), open
WAVE OF "SCARE BUYING" that followed the
credit cash loans (personal loans from
shoe rationing order (WP-Mar5'43,pll)
commercial banks), and service debt
is
abating.
Whereas
weekly
department
(owed to doctors, lawyers, etc.) have
12 CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
WAR ACROSS THE BORDER
A belligerent since September 1939, Canada got ready for bottle sooner than
the United States.
250
250
225
225
L Industrial production rose sharply and
2. The some goes for factory employ-
225
still is rising faster than this countrys.
225
ment.
200
200
200
200
175
175
175
Conoda
175
1939 100
Conada
1939 100 .
1939 100
150
150
1939 1939*100
150
150
125
125
125
125
United Stotes
United States
100
100
100
100
Adjusted for Seosonal
75
75
75
75
1939
1940
1941
1942
1939
1940
1941
1942
140
140
125
125
3. As for back as December, 1941,
4. And this resulted in the flattening
Canada initiated overall price controls,
out of the cost of living.
120
120
130
130
WHOLESALE PRICES
115
115
120
120
1939 E 100
Conoda
1939=100
1939 100
Conodo
IIO
110
1939 100 1939*100
no
110
United Stotes
105
105
United Stotes
100
100
100
100
90
90
95
95
1939
1940
1941
1942
1939
1940
1941
1942
175
175
6000
6000
5. Meanwhile, retail sales in Canada
6. Reflecting, of course, rising war
rose to unprecedented levels,
expenditures.
5000
5000
150
150
4000
4000
1939 - = 100
125
Canada
125
1939 100
SEPTEMBER 1939 = 100
Conoda
3000
3000
SEPTEMBER 1939 100
2000
United States
2000
100
100
Z
1000
1000
United States
Adjusted for Seosonal
75
75
0
O
1939
1940
1941
1942
1939
1940
1941
1942
WAR PROGRESS
MARCH 19,1943
CONFIDENTIAL 13
also declined. As incomes rise, people
paper, natural and synthetic rubber, and so on,
invariably get around to cleaning up
and analyzes possibilities for finding substitutes.
old obligations; also they are inclined
(war Production Board, Office of Civilian Supply)
to pay current bills more promptly.
Public Opinion
(Regulation "W" and the scarcity of
A survey of public opinion, Attitudes foward
Peace Planning (confidential: pp.23), indicates
consumers' durable goods have militated
that a majority of Americans believe peace plan-
against an offsetting expansion in con-
ning should begin now. Opinions were more definite
sumer credit.)
among the well educated; as many as a third of those
with only grammar school educations gave "don't
REPORTS ON REPORTS
know* answers.
Shipyard Labor
(office of War Information, Bureau of Intelligence)
Employment in shipyards must rise 300,000 to
"Austerity" Models
1,653,000 in October, if production schedules are
The "Itility" Program of the British Board of
to be met, according to Estimated Labor Require-
frade (confidential; PP.36) describes British ex-
ments for the Shipbuilding Industry (confidential:
perience in producing and distributing "austerity"
pp.26). It treats absenteeism, turnover, plant
clothing-how profits are controlled, raw materials
utilization, and the problems connected with the
allotted, etc. It also discusses the manufacture
recruitment of women, especially the need for car-
of utility furniture, china, linens, and pots and
ing for their children.
pans.
(U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statis-
(Dexter M. Keezer, Deputy Administrator, Office of
tics)
Price Administration)
Formaldehyde
(This record is an attempt to select from the many
Formaldehyde (confidential; pp.45) outlines
documents coming to the attention of WAR PROGRESS
supply and demand prospects in 1943, makes quan-
those studies which would be of most interest to
titative recommendations on how the short supply
readers. The listis.by no means comprehensive, and
should be distributed among such varlegated in-
no attempt has been made to evaluate reports for
dustries as agricultural poisons, drugs and phar-
accuracy. Whether'reports are available depends on
maceuticals, dyes, plastics and resins, pulp and
the policy of each individual agency.)
SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS
Transportation - Prices - Cost of Living
Lotest
Preceding
2 Months
6 Months
Year
Some
Same
Month*
Month
Month
Month
Ago
Ago
Ago
1939
1937
TRANSPORTATION - COMMODITY AND
PASSENGER (1935-39=100) t
p193
193
r199
189
149
96
106
Commodity
p184
183
195
188
151
96
106
Possenger
p221
224
209
193
141
97
108
WHOLESALE COMMODITY PRICES
ALL COMMODITIES (1926=100)
p102.5
p101.9
101.0
99.2
96.7
76.9
86.3
Form products
119.0
117.0
113.8
106.1
101.3
67.2
91.4
Food products
105.8
105.2
104.3
100.8
94.6
71.5
87.0
Other than form products and foods
p96.2
p96.0
95.9
95.6
94.9
80.2
84.1
COST OF LIVING ALL ITEMS
120.9
120.6
120.4
117.5
112.9
99.3
101.0
Food
133.6
133.0
132.7
126.1
116.8
94.8
103.6
Other than food
114.4
114.2
114.1
113.2
110.9
101.7
99.7
February except for Transportation, January. Unadjusted. P Preliminary. Is Revised.
14 CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
PRODUCTION PROGRESS
Naval, Army, and Merchant Ships and Equipment
Total Novol Vessels
Battleships, Cruisers, Carriers
800
100
Schedule
600
Actual
Schedule
.
80
60
400
Actual
40
200
20
o
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
Destroyers
Submarines
100
50
VALUE PUT IN PLACE MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
Actual
75
Schedule
40
Schedule
.
30
50
Actual
20
25
VALUE PUT IN PLACE MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
10
o
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
Antisubmarine
Other Minor Combat Ships,
400
Naval Auxiliaries, and Conversions
125
Schedule
300
100
Actual
Schedule
75
200
Actual
5Q
100
25
0
1942
0
1943
1942
1943
"Bosed on delivery schedules of February I,
WAR PROGRESS
MARCH 19,1943
CONFIDENTIAL 15
PRODUCTION PROGRESS
Naval, Army, and Merchant Ships and Equipment (continued)
Transports, Landing Vessels,
and Army Auxiliaries
Transports
200
30
Schedule*
150
20
Actual
100
Schedule
Actual
10
50
0
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
Landing Vessels
Army Auxiliaries
150
50
VALUE PUT IN PLACE - MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
40
100
30
Actual
Schedule"
Schedule*
20
50
Actual
VALUE PUT IN PLACE MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
10
0
o
1942
1943
1942
1943
Naval Guns and Fire Control
Navol Gun Ammunition
150
150
Schedule*
Schedule*
100
100
Actuol
50
50
Actual
0
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
. Bosed on delivery schedules of February I.
WAR PROGRESS
16 CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
PRODUCTION PROGRESS
Naval, Army, and Merchant Ships and Equipment (continued)
Naval Torpedoes, Depth Charges,
Naval Equipment and Maintenance
and Mines
Including Signal Equipment
30
200
Schedule
150
Schedule
20
Actual
100
10
Actual
50
O
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
Merchant Ships Total
Dry Cargo Vessels - - Ocean Going
400
300
VALUE PUT IN PLACE - MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
Schedule*
Schedule*
300
200
Actual
Actual
200
100
VALUE PUT IN PLACE - MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
100
o
o
1942
1943
1942
1943
Tankers - Ocean Going
Other Merchant Vessels
75
20
Schedule
15
50
Schedule'
10
Actual
Actual
25
5
o
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
. Bosed on delivery schedules of February I
WAR PROGRESS
-
WAR PROGRESS
Confidential
(British Secret)
g -
- MAR
1942 Production Roundup
Problems in CMP Debut
Number 122
January 15, 1943
704
WAR PROGRESS
Confidential
(British Secret)
so - il R
- X - E MAR
Looking Ahead into 143's Problems
Scorecard on Merchant Shipping
Aircraft Production - 1942
Number 121
January 8, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL
NUMBER 122
WAR PROGRESS
JANUARY 15,1943
Year Ends with War Production Spurt
December munitions output up 14% over No-
% Gain
vember, but there may have been some
June-July
10%
borrowing from the future. Most 42 re-
July-Aug
8
sults fall short of objectives.
Aug.-Sept
5
Sept.-Oct
3
MUNITIONS PRODUCTION climbed to a new
Oct.-Nov
12
monthly high in December--$4,330,000,-
Nov.-Dec
14
000 (preliminary), up more than $500,-
000,000 from November's $3,813,000,000
Part of December's good showing was
(revised). This was the largest dollar
attributable to accelerated acceptances
monthly gain on record, and it brought
of important munitions items, partic-
the total for 1942 to $32,000,000,000,
ularly planes and tanks, which increased
or almost four times 1941 output of
sharply over November. The dollar value
$8,400,000,000.
of plane acceptances was up 18% (WP-
Percentagewise, the December gain
Jan8'43,p10); combat vehicle deliveries
was the best since April:
were up 66% (yet November was not a
bad month for tanks and self-propelled
% Gain
guns). There may have been some year-
Jan.-Feb
5%
end borrowing from assembly lines, and
Feb.-Mar
17
acceptances may level off next month.
Mar.-Apr
19
In keeping with plans to put smaller
Apr.-May
13
quantities of essential materials into
May-June
12
brick and mortar and more into planes,
ACTUAL PRODUCTION VS. OBJECTIVES IN-1942
Output of many munitions items in 1942 missed goals by wide margins - -
aircraft armament +48%, aircraft gun ammunition -47%, tanks hit the target.
50
50
25
% ABOVE OR BELOW OBJECTIVE
A A Ammunition
A A Fire Control
Small Arms and
Infantry Weapons
Small Arms and Infontry
Weapon Ammunition
Aircraft Gun Ammunition
Tanks
Self-Propelled Guns
Field Artillery
Fire Control
Artillery and Tonk
25
Gun Ammunition
Army Aircraft
Signal Equipment
0
AWN
-
O
A A Guns
Aircraft Armoment
Tank Guns
Wheeled Artillery
Ground Signal
Equipment
Motor Transport
% ABOVE OR BELOW OBJECTIVE
-25
-25
-50
-50
WAR PROGRESS
2
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
tanks, and shells, war construction was
down to $1,246,000,000 last month, as
PRODUCTION PROGRESS-Preliminary
against $1,331,000,000 in November.
Value delivered or put in place in December.
This reduced the overall gain in war
Millions of dollors
output, and total munitions production
December
% Change
and war construction at $5,576,000,000
Preliminary
from
November
(preliminary) were up 8% over November's
Total munitions
4,330
+14%
$5,144,000,000. Though war construction
Combat munitions (a)
3.545
+15
Aircraft and aircraft munitions
1,303
+17
will continue to decline in the future,
Ground army munitions (b)
1,060
+24
increases in munitions will more than
Naval and Army Vessels etc
910
+4
Merchant vessels
272
+13
compensate. The following table sug-
Combat planes
425
+15
gests what is in prospect:
Aircraft armament
41
+11
Aircraft ammunition
94
+24
Artillery and equipment
115
*19
1942
1943
%
Antiaircraft guns and equipment
110
+16
Small arms and infantry weapons
55
*12
Actual Objective Change
Artillery and tank cannon amm
106
-16
(in billions)
Antiaircraft ammunition
24
+41
Small arm etc.. amm.
168
+22
Munitions
$32.5
$72.2
+122%
Combat venicles
398
+66
Construction
13.9
9.5
- 32
(a) Fighting Items: Aircraft and aircraft munitions; ground
Mun. & con
46.4
81.7
+ 76
army ordnance and ground signal equipment; naval, aray, and
merchant vessels and equipment. (b) Ground army ordnance
and ground signal equipment.
The nearly $40,000,000,000 boost ir.
munitions output presents an imposing
000,000,000 to $7,500,000,000. And that
task. To get it, 1943 output of planes,
compares with the record high to date
tanks, guns, ammunition, naval and mer-
of $4,330,000,000 last month--a mark
chant ships, etc. will have to average
that was probably attained by a year-
$6,000,000,000 per month.
And
by
De-
end "beat-the-deadline" inflation in
cember, 1943--since output starts the
deliveries. To realize the striking
year off atamuch lower level--monthly
gains called for next year will require
production will have to get up to $7,-
maximum efficiency in distributing raw
materials and common industrial and mu-
nitions components, as well as a sub-
stantial increase in workers in war in-
IN THIS ISSUE:
dustries (WP-Jan8'43,pl).
YEAR ENDS WITH WAR PRODUCTION SPURT
1
GAIN UNEVEN
PRODUCTION PROGRESS PRELIMINARY
2
December's impressive gain was not
evenly distributed. Among the major
DRAWING IN THE MANPOWER
3
groups, combat vehicles made the best
CMP DEBUT HAS ITS PROBLEMS
8
showing; and this was due in large part
ONCE PLENTIFUL NICKEL
9
to tanks, up 73%.
KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK
10
Other big increases were in landing
0.06% OF THE PROGRAM
11
craft, antiaircraft ammunition, merchant
WHO BUYS GOVERNMENT BONDS
12
vessels, and trainer planes. But the
WAR PROGRESS NOTES
13
month had its share of decreases, too:
SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS
14
gliders, naval reconnaissance planes,
PRODUCTION PROGRESS (GROUND ARMY)
...
15,16
ground signal equipment. Naval fight-
ers, which had usually been excellent
JANUARY 15, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL 3
performers in terms of month-to-month
December Deliveries
gains, were down slightly. As an in-
As % of As % of
dication of production imbalance, ar-
November Forecast
tillery, including cannon for tanks, was
Heavy wheeled art'y.
190%
100%
up 19%, while corresponding ammunition
Total tanks
173
120
was off 16%.
Medium wheeled art'y..
145
61
Landing craft
143
100
6% UNDER FORECAST
Medium tanks
139
113
Munitions as a whole came within 6%
Merchant vessels
138
92
of the first-of-the-month forecast, one
Trainer planes
132
124
of the closest monthly showings of the
Service combat planes. 126
92
year. Again, however, there were marked
Amm. for small arms
deviations among items, as the follow-
& inf. weapons
122
98
ing table (ranged in order of gain over
Total planes
118
103
November) shows:
Major combat vessels.
108
174
DRAWING IN THE MANPOWER
War effort reaches out from industrial East; and nonfarm employment increases most sharply
in such agricultural states as Kansas, Arkansas, Idaho, and Utah.
04K
1 Das
EMPLOYMENT IN NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS
% INCREASE NOV, IHO TO NOV, 1942
Less man 10%
30% 40%
0% 20%
Over 40%
20% 30%
was PROGRESS
THE SHARP RISE IN NONFARM EMPLOYMENT IN THE WEST EMPLOYMENT IN THE OLDER MANUFACTURING CENTERS IN
AND SOUTH IN THE PAST TWO YEARS REFLECTS NOT ONLY THE BELT FROM NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK TO ILLINOIS
NEW WAR PLANTS IN SUCH PLACES AS HOUSTON, WICHITA, HAS ALSO INCREASED, BUT BY A MUCH SMALLER PERCENT-
SALT LAKE CITY, AND SAN DIEGO, BUT ALSOTHE EFFORTS AGE IN MOST CASES; OHIO, CENTER OF THE MACHINE-TOOL
TO INCREASE MINE OUTPUT TO FEED THE WAR MACHINE. INDUSTRY, IS A NOTABLE EXCEPTION.
4
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
MUNITIONS PRODUCTION SPURTS AT YEAR END-
Rise of 14% over November is widest month-to-month gain since April,
Total Munitions
Preliminary
Total Munitions
4000
4000
+60
+60
Volue delivered or put in ploce.
% Change from month to month
3000
3000
+40
+40
2000
2000
+20
+20
X
X
1000
1000
o
not
0
o
o
-20
-20
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
0
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
0
N
D
1942
1942
Combat Vehicles
Combat Vehicles
400
400
.60
+60
Volue delivered
Preliminary
% Chonge from month to month.
300
300
+40
+40
200
200
+20
+20
VALUE DELIVERED OR PUT IN PLACE-MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
VALUE DELIVERED OR PUT IN PLACE- MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
E
0
100
100
0
XX
E
0
0
o
% CHANGE FROM PRECEDING MONTH
-20
-20
J F M A M J J A S 0 N D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
0
N
D
1942
1942
Ground Army Weapons*
Ground Army Weapons
300
300
+60
+60
Volue delivered
Preliminary
% CHANGE FROM PRECEDING MONTH
% Change from month to month.
+40
+40
200
200
+20
+20
100
100
X
o
X
0
o
0
-20
-20
J F M A M J J A S o N D
J F M A M J J A S 0 N D
1942
1942
Ground Army Ammunition
Ground Army Ammunition
300
Preliminary
300
.60
+60
Volue delivered.
% Change from month to month
+40
+40
200
200
+20
+20
100
100
o
X
o
0
o
-20
-20
J F M A M J J A S o N D
J F M A M J J A S o N D
1942
1942
Artillery and equipment, small orms and infantry weapons, antigircraft guns and equipment
WAR PROGRESS
JANUARY 15, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL.. 5
-AND DECEMBER'S OUTPUT TRIPLES JANUARY'S
with ground army and airforce equipment outpacing ships.
Aircraft and Aircraft Munitions
Aircraft and Aircraft Munitions
1200
1200
Preliminary
+60
+60
Volue delivered
% Change from month to month.
1000
1000
+40
+40
800
800
600
600
+20
+20
400
400
R
0
0
200
200
0
0
-20
-20
J F M A M J J A S o N D
J F M A M J J A S 0 N D
1942
1942
Total Airplanes
Total Airplanes
Preliminary
500
500
+60
+60
Value delivered
% Change from month to month.
400
400
+40
+40
300
300
VALUE DELIVERED OR PUT IN PLACE-MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
200
o
VALUE DELIVERED OR PUT IN PLACE-MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
+20
+20
200
%CHANGE FROM PRECEDING MONTH
E
O
o
100
100
o
-20
20
J F M A M J J A S o N D
J F M A M J J A S 0 N D
1942
1942
Naval and Army Vessels and Equip.
Noval and Army Vessels and Equip.
% CHANGE FROM PRECEDING MONTH
1000
1000
+60
+60
Value put in place.
Preliminary
....
% Change from month to month.
800
800
+40
+40
600
600
1
+20
+20
400
400
o
X
o
200
200
o
O
-20
-20
J F M A M J J A S 0 N D
J F M A M J J A S 0 N D
1942
1942
Merchant Ships
Preliminary
Merchant Ships
250
250
+60
+60
Volue put in place.
% Chonge from month to month.
200
200
+40
+40
150
150
+20
+20
100
100
0
50
50
X
o
o
0
-20
20
J F M A M J J A S 0 N D
J F M A M J J A S 0 N 0
1942
1942
WAR PROGRESS
6
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
December Deliveries of deliveries. Major combat vessels
As % of As % of
ran 74% above forecast; this good record
November Forecast
was heavily weighted by the delivery of
Self-propelled guns..
101%
124%
a 27,000-ton aircraft carrier on Decem-
Minor combat vessels.
91
92
ber 31, delivery of which had been sched-
Artillery & tank gun
uled for January.
ammunition
84
88
Ground signal equip..
72
90
WEAPONS STEPPED UP
Naval reconnaissance
Ordnance generally was higher, pri-
planes
49
63
marily because of a stepup in deliveries
Gliders
29
46
of weapons-combat vehicles, artillery,
small arms. But ammunition for artil-
Naval ships did not keep pace with
lery and tank guns was off 16% from
the general increases in December. For
November.
example, deliveries of minor combat_
The speedup in light-tank deliveries
vessels were down from November. And
--up almost 300% and 35% ahead of sched-
though they were not far off from the
ule--explains in large part the increase
forecast-only 8%-this is attributable
in tank output. (In November, light-
primarily to a recent reduction in the
tank deliveries were 48% behind sched-
December forecast, not to a high rate
ule.) December saw the last M-3 medium
1941-EVENTS CAST THEIR SHADOW TOWARD WAR
6
6
Developments on the home front
5
4
MUNITIONS PRODUCTION-BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
3
-
3
U.S. lifts "morol embargo" on exports to Russio
OPM issues first incustry-wide mondatory priority regulation
U.S. takes custody of 65 Axis and Danish ships to prevent sobologe
Roosevelt signs 3,400,000,000 Noval Appropriation Act
Roosevelt proclaims "Unlimited National Emergency"
U.S. closes German and Italian consulates
Lend-Lease Administrator Hopkins goes to London and Moscow
us freezes Japonese and Chinese assets; MocArthur mode U.S. Commander in For East
U.S. prohibits export of aviation gos to Axis
Roosevelt-Churchill formulate Attantic Charter
Terms of service of men in military forces extended
Roosevelt announces "shoot first" policy toward Axis worships in American waters
4
2
OPM estoblished
Roosevelt signs novol exponsion bill
Roosevelt signs Land-Leose Act
Not'l Defense Mediation Board created
us takes over defense of Greenland
OPACS established
Sole of defense soving bonds begins
Roosevelt promises aid to Russia
SPAB created
Revenue Act of 1941 signed
us replies to Japanese Pocific proposols
SPAB prohibits use of critical moterials for nonessential building
us extends 1,000,000,000 Lend-Lease aid to Russio
Kurusu arrives in Washington
Act forbidding arming of U.S. merchant ships repealed
Low forbidding sending U.S. troops to foreign countries repealed
Registration of all moles 18-65 approved
Churchill in Washington
2
MUNITIONS PRODUCTION-BILLIONS OF DC
I
sunk
I
Germany invodes Bolkons
Russia, Japan sign
us forces in Iceland
Japan occupies French
Indo-China
Japan stops shipping to
us colls back ships
Germons advance in Ukroine,
Russions blow up Drieper Dom
German submarine fires on
uss Greer
RAF in heaviest roid on Berlin
Moscow under state of siege;
Germons take Kharkov
men lost
British complete conquest of
Italians in Ethiopia
Russions vecopture Rostov;
launch winter offensive
PEARL HARBOR
o
Germons continue
roids on Britoin
British advance in
Libyo
us froos drrive in
Newfoundland
British under Wovell
take Bengasi
Turkey closes Dordonelles
USSR and Turkey sign
nonoggression pact
British retreat from
Libya;hold hold Tobruk
neutrality pact
7-hour oir roid on London
us freighter Robin Moor
sunk by submarine
Germon bottleship Bismarck
sinks Hood, then is sunk
Germans take Crete
Germany invodes Russio;
Churchill promises oid
to Russio
uss Reuben James sunk,
HMS Repulse and Prince of Wales
Germany a moly declare wor on us
Japan takes Hongkong
0
Jon.
Feb.
Mor.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1941
WAR PROGRESS
JANUARY 15, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL
7
tank roll off the assembly line, two wheeled artillery, similarly, produc-
months before output was scheduled to
tion was 4% above the objective, but
stop. That means that henceforth me-
again fire-control equipment was short
dium-tank production efforts will be :
of the goal, this time by 35%.
concentrated on the far superior M-4
(WP-Nov20'42,p1).
TANKS REACH GOAL
Full-year results for 1942re-emphasize
Certain other items, however, moved
the lack of balance in production.
In
in step toward objectives: Tanks actu-
a number of cases, output of one item
ally hit the objective on the nose (the
ran ahead of requirements whereas the
objective for tanks was lowered late
complementary item ran behind the ob-
in the year), and tank guns exceeded
jective (chart, page 1).
it by 19%; antiaircraft ammunition was
2% below the objective, as against the
FIRE CONTROL FALTERS
2% excess for antiaircraft guns, as
In antiaircratt guns and antiaircraft
noted above. Lack of overall balance
fire-control equipment, production of
in the program, however, is suggested
guns was just about on the objective,
by the slow progress in armored car out-
up 2%; but the fire-control equipment
put-only 20% of objective; also by
needed to make those guns really effec-
self-propelled guns, which came to only
tive was 42% below the objective. In
66% of the year's goal.
1942 - A YEAR OF MOUNTING MUNITIONS OUTPUT
6
6
5
4
Record breaking $32,000,000,000 Wor Appropriation bill
New record $42,000,000,000 wor appropriation
5
East Coast gasoline rationing begins
Churchill arrives in Washington
Beginning of PRP on full scale
President demands anti inflation bill
WPB reorganized; Witson and Eberstadt
Merchant ship construction reaches
OES established, Bymes director
Notion-wide gos refloring
New high in wor output
mode vice-choirmen
New fox bill signed
CMP announced
4
MUNITIONS PRODUCTION-BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
3
United Nations formed
WPB established, succeeding SPAB and OPM
Passenger car production stopped
US.-Britoin establish Combined Chiefs of Staff
Non-essentiol building stopped
War Monpower Comm. estoblished
Sugar rationing begins
Molotov arrives in Washington
three 0 day
CPRB established
2
Price Control Act signed
I
Fall of Manila
Foll of Singapore
Joponese cut Burma road
Fall of Corregidor, Bottle of Cord Seo
Bottle of Midway
Merchant ship sinkings top March record
Sevastopol folls to Nazis
U.S. attock in Solomons
Siege of Stalingred begins
us. oir raid on Tokio
Hitler promises to take Statingrad
New U.S. offensive in Solomons
Montgomery routs Rommel
RAF steps up roids on Europe; bombs Cologne
First U.S. bombing roid on Europe
U.S. forces land in French Africa
Russigns open counter offensive
Merchant ship sinkings at low point for year
Darlon shot, succeeded by Giroud
3
2
MUNITIONS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
o
Wave of ship sinkings in Atlontic begins
Merchant ship sinkings reach record high
Nozis open spring drive in Russia
Tobruk s,Rommel pushes toward Alexandria
I
o
and on the fighting fronts
Jon.
Feb.
Mor.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov
Dec
1942
WAR PROGRESS
8
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
CMP Debut Has Its Problems
Time too short to develop all bills of materials
obtained or could not be obtained in the
for second quarter requirements; so claim-
short time available (it often requires
ants had to make estimates, using PRP
many months to develop bills of materi-
data. "B" list changes on obstacle.
als), estimates had to suffice instead
of accurate computations of require-
SECOND QUARTER REQUIREMENTS for steel,
ments. Such estimates were made on the
copper, and aluminum are now under re-
basis of either PRP data on metals con-
view by the Controlled Materials Divi-
sumption in previous quarters or other
sions and the Program Bureau of the Vice
information often less reliable.
Chairman, as a preliminary to making
final allotments to claimant agencies--
"A" LIST INFLATED
the Army, Navy, Maritime Commission,
Furthermore, in order to prepare re-
etc. February 1. As submitted, re-
quirements by two categories--Class A
quirements reflect the fact-finding dif-
products (munitions and other products
ficulties encountered by claimant agen-
not sold on the open market but speci-
cies in preparing for the first round
fied by claimant agencies) and Class B
of CMP operations in the second quarter.
products (mostly components and parts
In just 58 days--from November 2 (when
such as valves, bearings, motors, etc.,
CMP was announced) to January 1 (when
and civilian-type end products)-it is
requirements had to be submitted)--claim-
necessary to have a clear and final list
ant agencies had to familiarize them-
of all Class B products. That list was
selves with the task of preparing their
not definitely decided upon until Decem-
future demands on materials supplies by
ber 21. Meanwhile, however, claimants
programs, monthly periods for one year
had to proceed with the preparation of
ahead, and in aggregates for the suc-
requirements, and they used, for Class
ceeding six months; by two groups of
B products, the tentative and incomplete
products, divided into Class A and Class
list issued on November 14. This pro-
B; and by various metal forms and shapes.
cedure led to the inclusion in require-
As expected, such detailed requirements
ments for Class A products of materials
were too exacting for full compliance
destined to be used for what finally be-
in the time allowed prior to the second
came Class B products.
quarter.
In short, Class A requirements be-
NOT ENOUGH TIME
came inflated and, in many cases, dupli-
cation occurred because some require-
Bills of materials--which should un-
ments for components and machinery were
derlie the materials awards on each pro-
not only included in the Class A tabula-
curement item--could not be obtained,
tion but in the Class B tabulation also.
analyzed, and translated into require-
ments for every one of the hundreds of
GAPS IN CLASS "B" DATA
thousands of procurement items needed
by the services and the other claimants.
Because of this inflation, revisions
Hence, where detailed statements on
are now being worked out jointly by the
materials needed in the production of
Controlled Materials Divisions, Industry
specific items had not previously been
Divisions, and claimant agencies. How-
ever, while deflation of requirements
JANUARY 15, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL 9
is under way, requirements for Class B
a catalyst in chemical processing, and
products will of necessity--because of
in alloys with other metals suchas brass,
gaps in the basic information--remain
copper, and bronze.
inaccurate. In these instances, claim-
ants will have to make allotments to
DOMINION PRODUCES
prime consumers on the basis of applica-
Canada is the world's biggest pro-
tions for controlled materials (Form
ducer. Over the past 30 years, it has
CMP-4) without a prior check on bills
accounted for almost 85% of world out-
of materials and computed program-by-
put; and with Canadian mines operating
program requirements.
at a wartime peak in 1942, Canada fur-
nished some 95% of United Nations pro-
duction.
Once Plentiful Nickel
U. S. CONSUMES
Canadian mines work at wartime speed to fur-
The United States is the big user.
nish metal for armor plate. And U.S. primary
Consumption, including lend-lease, has
consumers carry on with a two-weeks'
doubled since 1939 and last year amounted
working supply.
to about 75% of total United Nations
FOR EVERY POUND of nickel used in the
output. Virtually all of the U.S. supply.
closing months of the last war, the U.S.
comes from Canada--although, beginning
today needs five pounds to satisfy the
in 1941, New Caledonia (now occupied by
needs of our Army, Navy, and allies.
U.S. troops) became an additional source
Nickel imparts hardness, toughness, and
for the United Nations.
strength to steel. It is also used in
So great has been the demand for nickel
plating, for building up worn parts, as
that primary consumers (steel mills,
NICKEL- - ANOTHER SCARCE METAL
1943 U.S. demand is expected to outrun new supply; inventories tight.
200
200
150
150
Expected Demond
1941 MONTHLY CONSUMPTION=100
indicated Consumption
Expected Supply
100
100
New Supply
1941 MONTHLY CONSUMPTION*100
( Including secondary metal)
Inventories of Prime Consumers
50
50
Ist of month
0
0
1941
1942
1943
WAR PROGRESS
10
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK
Latest
Preceding
Month
6 Months
Year
Week
Week
Ago
Ago
Ago
War program Checks paid (millions of dollars)
1,414
1,418
1,387
1,075
453
War bond sales (millions of dollars)
219
297
203
245
225
Commodity prices (August 1939 = 100)
28 Basic commodities
173.8
172.9
171.4
167.9
162.4
Controlled
161.9
162.1
162.1
163.5
160.0
Uncontrolled
203.4
200.0
194.8
179.5
168.5
Nonferrous metal scrap
117.5
117.5
117.5
120.3
130.5
Petroleum carloadings (no. of tank cars)
Total
49,045
46,157
51,190
51,161
45,324
Movement into East
25,129
22,712
24,974
24,017
2,005
Exports (no. of freight cars unloaded for export Friday)
Atlantic Coast ports
1,262
963
1,088
1,457
1,431
Gulf Coast ports
363
271
319
563
390
Pacific Coast ports
1,027
723
925
694
241
Strikes affecting the war effort
Number in progress
6
7
8
19
n.a.
Man-days lost
15,973
10,470
29,616
26,503
n.a.
Unused steel capacity (% operations below capacity)
0.7
3.0
1.6
1.6
4.9
Not available.
brass mills, foundries, etc.) have been
30 inventories represented abouta three-
unable to build their stocks of raw nickel
or four-days' supply.
What's more, a
above a two weeks' supply (chart, page
preliminary survey of latest PRP reports
9).
This reflects the institution of
indicates that there has been a drop
an allocations systemin nickel in April,
since then in the stocks of end-products
1941.
manufacturers.
The steel industry is the outstanding
END-PRODUCT USE SMALL
consumer of nickel. Because of the in-
Inventories of end-product. manufac-
creasing demandfor armor plate for tanks,
turers-chiefly munitions builders--ran
guns, ships, planes, etc., demand for
to about a 22-weeks' supply on June 30
nickel in steel has increased from 60%
last, as disclosed in the processing of
of U.S. consumption in 1939 to 75% in
PRP applications for the fourth quarter
1942.
(WP-Oct30'42,p6). Consumption by these
firms, however, is only 5% to 7% of the
CUBAN SOURCES
total.
This year, steel mills are expected
Since these manufacturers consume
to take more than 80% of our estimated
the bulk of their needs in the form of
supply; and on this basis--together with
nickel-bearing alloys suchas steel (WP-
other demands--monthly nickel needs
Oct30'42,p7), etc., the raw nickel they
would average 2,910,000 pounds more in
use is largely incidental to their fab-
1943 than in 1942. Most of this increase
ricating processes. Indeed, compared
could be made up by operation of a new
with total U.S. consumption, their June
nickel development in Cuba. Following
CONFIDENTIAL
NUMBER 121
WAR PROGRESS
JANUARY 8, 1943
Six Major Problems for 1943
Lost year the aim was to get war production
from last month's rate is called for
started at any cost; need in 1943 is to
this year. But because the war economy
intensify the effort and get the most out
is at an advanced, close-to-capacity
of limited resources.
stage, the job of getting that boost
will be just as hard, if not harder, than
THE YEAR 1942 was a year of organization
the job of getting a $3,500,000,000 in-
for war-of taking up slack in our econ-
crease last year. There's little slack
omy, of converting plants to munitions
to draw upon.
production, of gearing up to a maximum
war effort. The year 1943 will be dif-
ABUNDANCE TO SCARCITY
ferent.
In 1942, the urgent need was to raise
During 1942, munitions production
"sights"--to develop a program which
and war construction rose from a $2,-
would make fuller use of America's ca-
000,000,000-a-month level in January to
pacity to produce forwar (WP-Dec4'42, p1),
an estimated $5,500,000,000 last month.
to use more manpower, more machines, and
That's a gain of $3,500,000,000. This
more materials in war production. And
year, the dollar gain will not be quite
it was more important to get things going
so great. Scheduled output for Decem-
than to economize on the use of resources.
ber, 1943, is around $7,500,000,000 to
But now the country is enteringa new
$8,000,000,000: Thus, an increase of
phase. Already, war production has been
about $2,000,000,000 to $2,500,000,000
held back by machine-tool bottlenecks,
NEARING CAPACITY
As production approaches limits of U.S. resources, the rate of rise slows up.
8
8
Total Munitions and Construction
Forecast
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
6
6
Estimate
4
Actuol
4
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2
2
1942
1943
WAR PROGRESS
DURING 1942, THE AMERICAN ECONOMY WAS TOOLING UP
IS NEARING CAPACITY-IN MATERIALS, MACHINES, AND
FOR WAR, AND GAINS IN OUTPUT WERE SHARP-NEARLY 200$
MANPOWER-GAINS WILL COME HARD. INCREASES IN MUNI-
FROM JANUARY TO DECEMBER. THIS YEAR, THE INCREASE,
TIONS OUTPUT AND WAR CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE TO BE
PERCENTAGEWISE, WILL NOT BE NEARLY SO STEEP, AS THE
DERIVED LARGELY FROM INTENSIFIED UTILIZATION OF
CHART CLEARLY INDICATES. BUT BECAUSE THE COUNTRY
RESOURCES, NOT so MUCH FROM EXPANSION.
JANUARY 15, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL 11
initial shipments next summer, such vol-
ume is slated for a peak rate of 2,500,-
0.06% of the Program
000 pounds monthly by the end of the
Blimps are 0 minor item in the overall war cost
year.
Such new production, however, won't
but do a major job in spotting subs. Unlike
necessarily be earmarked for the United
planes, they can cruise in adverse weather
and at low speeds.
States. For, beginning with the second
quarter of 1942, the entire United Na-
AS PROGRAMS GO, the blimp program is
tions' supply of nickel has been appor-
small: $66,000,000 in 1942-43, or only
tioned among users, according to needs,
0.06% of munitions production scheduled.
by the Metals Controller of Canada, and
But the cost is no measure of the sig-
by the Combined Raw Materials Board.
nificance. Blimps have a specific func-
tion: to protect coastwise and convoy
THE WAY OF A WAR
shipping against submarines; also to
And the conclusion is an old story.
spot enemy-laid mines.
Nickel has gone the way of all metals
The program calls for 164 airships
in wartime. Once plentiful--nickel
and is just beginning to approach volume
mines were operated at only 50% of ca-
production. So far about 30 have been
pacity during the depression--it's now
delivered. From a level of one or two
scarce. And despite conservation and
per month last spring, deliveries reached
the elimination of civilian demand, the
a high of seven in December (four of
United States and its allies now must
these being delivered though uninflated).
pool and husband available supplies.
Output is concentrated in the Goodyear
BLIMPS GOING UP
Production of nonrigid dirigibles has risen from negligible rate early in 1942 to
over $3,000,000 monthly; expected to top $5,000,000 a month late this year.
7
7
Value of Deliveries
6
6
Forecast
5
5
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
4
4
3
3
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2
2
Actual
I
-
0
0
1942
1943
WAR PROGRESS
12 CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
WHO BUYS GOVERNMENT BONDS
"Inflationary" sales of government and government-guaranteed issues to Federal Reserve
and commercial banks have risen more than sales to investors and investment institutions.
10
10
10
10
I. Net sales to Federal trust funds
2. And another billion or two go
(Unemployment Insurance, etc.) are 0
to mutual savings banks and in-
billion or two a year,
surance companies,
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
o
o
1938
1940
1941
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
o
o
1939
1942
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
thru Oct.
thru Oct.
20
20
20
20
3. Noninstitutional investors, for-
4. While Federal Reserve and com-
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
merly small buyers, now take size-
mercial banks have increased
able amounts of War Savings and
their buying even more.
other bonds,
10
10
10
10
o
*
0
o
-
O
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
thru Oct.
thru Oct.
40
40
140
140
5. This adds up to 0 big jump in
6. With the Federal Reserve and
total net sales (increase in amount
commercial banks now taking a-
120
bout half the total.
120
outstanding),
30
30
100
100
80
80
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
20
20
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
% OF TOTAL NET SALES
60
60
% OF TOTAL NET SALES
40
40
10
10
20
20
0
o
o
o
-20
-20
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
.
thru Oct.
thru Oct.
Decreose in holdings
WAR PROGRESS
THOUGH THE TREASURY HAS BEEN NOTABLY SUCCESSFUL IN
AND INSURANCE COMPANIES AND THEN SPENDS IT, THE NET
PROMOTING SALES OF WAR SAVINGS BONDS, IT STILL HAS
EFFECT IS A TRANSFER OF BANK DEPOSITS. BUT WHEN IT
HAD TO DEPEND INCREASINGLY ON COMMERCIAL BANKS TO
BORROWS MONEY FROM THE RESERVE OR COMMERCIAL BANKS
FINANCE THE WAR EFFORT. WHEN THE GOVERNMENT BORROWS
AND SPENDS IT, THE EFFECT IS TO EXPAND BANK DEPOSITS,
MONEY FROM NDIVIDUALS OR FROM MUTUAL SAVINGS BANKS
THUS INCREASING INFLATION POTENTIALITIES.
JANUARY 15, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL 13
plant at Akron and is expected to rise
rose T%, largely because of fresh fruits
gradually to a peak of 15 blimps a month
and vegetables. Obviously, as supplies
by next September and stay near that
of many of the controlled foods become
level.
short-beef, butter, coffee,
relative weight of the uncontrolled
RUBBER REQUIREMENTS.
foods in the family diet tends to in-
Production could be expanded 50% fur-
crease. For example, the food cost in-
ther if the Goodyear plant at Phoenix,
dex on December 15, 1942, stood 9% above
Ariz., were utilized. But transport-
May, 1942; but items included from the
ation of raw materials and labor to that
start in the general maximum price reg-
point presents a problem. Each blimp
ulation have risen only 1.2% since May,
takes about 3',000 pounds of rubber, 3,-
while uncontrolled foods climbed 30%,
500 pounds of aluminum, 2,500 pounds of
as the table shows:
alloy steel (engines not included).
Lift is provided by 425,000 cubic feet
% Increase May 12
of helium-about one-sixteenth of the
to Dec. 15
capacity of the huge navy dirigible,
All foods
9.1%
"Macon." Power comes from two 550 hp.
Under OPA control on Dec.
Wasp engines.
15
6.9
Under control on May 18
1.2
SIGNS OF SUBS
Placed under control after
Blimps are usually used in submarine.
May 18
17.5
coastal patrol duty; they have a maximum
Not under OPA control
29.8
range of 2,000 miles and a cruising speed
of 50 knots; top speed is 75 knots. In
CANADA'S DRAW
these patrol operations, blimps have
TOTAL CANADIAN requests rU.S. supplies
certain distinct advantages over air-
--chiefly raw materials and munitions
planes. They can take off and land in
components--are estimated at $587,600,-
low ceiling weather. Their speed can
000 in 1943. But only half is destined
be throttled down to that of a convoy
for Canada itself; 32% will go to the
or they can hover over a spot. Thus,
United Kingdom, 18% will be sent back
better than a fast-flying plane, they
to the United States (after processing).
can observe such submarine telltales as
Reflecting rapidly expanding Canadian
oil slicks, lines of bubbles, seagulls
war output, the 1943 requirement is 37%
following a periscope, perhaps an orange
above a year ago, and 150% higher than
crate (concealing a periscope) moving
1941.
against the tide.
BENCH TECHNOLOGISTS
War Progress Notes
ONE WORKER'S suggestion recently (on a.
reaming operation) increased his plant's
COST OF EATING
capacity for producing Thompson sub-
BETWEEN mid-November and mid-December,
machine guns by 100%. Thousands of such
the average family food bill wriggled
ideas are flowing regularly into labor-
up another 1.2% (same as in previous
management committees inl,900 war plants.
period) even though foods under price
Thirty of the best submitted last month
control advanced only 0.5%. Prices of
will save over 112,000 man-hours annu-
foods not under direct control of OPA
ally. Typical example: designing of a
14
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
machine to set gaps for aircraft spark
contrasted with 55,000,000 in '41. Out-
plugs enables even a beginner to operate
put of ferroalloys was up about 11%.
it and turn out 800 correctly gapped
Otherwarmetals-aluminum, magnesium,
plugs per day instead of former top pro-
copper, chromite, molybdenum, tungsten,
duction of 300.
vanadium, and cadmium--hit all-time
peaks. Petroleum output at 1,385,000,-
PEAK MINERAL OUTPUT
000 barrels (held down because of trans-
THE VALUE of U.S. mineral production in
portation difficulties) was off 1%.
1942 reached a new high of about $7,-
Bituminous coal production of 576,000,-
525,000,000--10% above 1941. Of the
000 tons was up 13%.
total, metals (steel, iron, copper, lead,
zinc, aluminum, etc.) accounted for $2,-
CUTTING THE CUTLETS
330,000,000; mineral fuels (petroleum,
MEAT for our armed forces overseas used
coal, and coke) for $4,060,000,000; and
to be shipped in whole sides or full
nonmetallic minerals (cement, sand,
carcasses. Now the carcass is completely
gravel, stone products, lime, and gyp-
boned and carved into edible cuts, is
sum) for $1,135,000,000.
then quick frozen, paraffin coated,
About 106,000,000 tons of iron ore
packed in cartons and shipped. This
were mined last year, compared with 93,-
reduces space a third and weight a fifth.
000,000 tons in 1941. Blast furnaces
And the meat arrives ready cut for the
produced 59,000,000 tons of pig iron,
chef.
SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS
Labor Force - Labor Turnover
Same
Same
Latest
Preceding
2 Months
6 Months
Year
Month
Month
Month
Month
Ago
Ago
Ago
1939
1937
Labor Force (millions)
53.4
54.5
54.0
56.1
54.0
n.a
n.a.
Employment - total
51.9
52.8
52.4
53.3
50.2
n.a.
n.a.
Male
37.0
37.5
38.1
39.4
37.6
n.a.
L.B.
Female
14.9
15.3
14.3
13.9
12.6
д.я.
n.a.
Unemployment
1.5
1.7
1.6
2.8
3.8
n.a.
n.n.
Labor Turnover in Mfg. Indus-
tries (rate per hundred workers)
Accessions
8.14
8.69
9.15
7.29
3.91
4.10
1.79
Separations-total
7.09
7.91
8.10
6.54
3.51
2.95
6.87
Quits
4.21
4.65
5.19
3.77
1.57
0.83
0.72
Military Separations
1.55
1.71
1.48
0.68
0.15
n.a.
n.a.
Aircraft Quits
3.93
4.41
4.72
Aircraft - Military Separations
4.06
2.20
1.06
0.59
2.22
2.82
2.41
0.85
0.15
n.a.
n.a.
Shipbuilding - Quits
-5.41
5.39
6.66
5.20
2.39
0.69
0.93
Shipbuilding - Military Separations
2.43
2.60
2.39
0.91
0.13
n.s.
n.a.
Labor force, December: labor turnover, November. n.a. Not available.
JANUARY 8, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL.. 15
PRODUCTION PROGRESS
Ground Army Munitions
Ground Army Ordnance and Ground
Signal Equipment
Combat Vehicles and Equipment
1500
500
1943 Objective
1943 Objective
$15.0 Billion
Forecast
$3.9 Billion
Excess
Preliminary
Excess
400
1000
Foracost'
1943 Forecost
Preliminary
1943 Forecost
300
$16.4 Billion
$46 Billion
200
500
Actual
Actual
100
0
O
1942
1943
1942
1943
Combot Vehicle Signal Equipment and
Combot Vehicles
Tank Cannon
60
400
1943 Objective
1943 Objective
Preliminary
$0.25 Billion
$3.6 Billion
VALUE DELIVERED MILLIONS DELIVERED-MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
Excess
Excess
Forecast'
300
40
1943 Forecast
1943 Forecost
$0.27 Billion
$4.4 Billion
200
Preliminary
20
Forecast
VALUE MILLIONS DELIVERED-MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
100
Actual
Actual
0
o
1942
1943
1942
1943
Army Ground Signal Equipment
Army Ammunition - Total
125
600
1943 Objective
1943 Objective
$1.3 Billion
$6.0 Billion
Excess
100
Deficit
Forecost"
Forecost"
400
75
1943 Forecost
1943 Forecost
$1.1 Billion
$6.1 Billion
Preliminary
50
Preliminary
200
25
Actual
Actual
0
o
1942
1943
1942
1943
. Based on procurement schedules os of December 1.
WAR PROGRESS
16 CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
PRODUCTION PROGRESS
Ground Army Munitions (continued)
Artillery and Equipment
Artillery and Tank Cannon Ammunition
300
200
1943 Objective
1943 Objective
$1.3 Billion
$2.3 Billion
Excers
Excess
150
Forecost
Forecast"
200
1943 Forecast
1943 Forecost
$1.9 Billion:
$26 Billion
Preliminory
100
Preliminary
100
Actual
50
Actual
o
o
1942
1943
1942
1943
Antiaircraft Guns and Equipment
Antiaircraft Ammunition
200
75
1943 Objective
1943 Objective
$1.82 Billion
$0.47 Billion
VALUE DELIVERED- DELIVERED-MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
Deficit
150
Forecost
#
50
1943
1943 Forecast
$1.79 Billion
$0.47 Billion:
100
Preliminary
Forecost'
25
Preliminary
VALUE DELIVERED-MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
50
Actual
Actual
o
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
Small Arms and Infantry Weapons
Small Arms and Infantry Weapon
Ammunition
100
300
1943 Objective
1943 Objective
$067 Billion
$32 Billion
Excess
Deficit
Forecost
#
75
Forecost
200
1943 Forecost
1943 Forecost
$0.87 Billion
Pretim
$30 Billion
50
Preliminary
100
25
Actual
Actual
0
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
. Bosed on procurement schedules 05 of December L
WAR PROGRESS
WAR PROGRESS
Confidential
(British Secret)
a y 3
- -
Guns with Greater Fire Power
Number 123
January 22, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL
NUMBER 123
WAR PROGRESS
JANUARY 22, 1943
More Versatile and Powerful Guns
Heavier armament favored for planes, tanks; guns are being mounted on self-propelled
and ground artillery tends to increased
carriages for greater mobility. This
mobility. Dual-purpose naval weapons are
country did not get into production of
directed at the new enemy, the airplane.
self-propelled guns until February,
1942. Output was then boosted so sharply
LAST YEAR, the value of guns and related
that, for 1942 as a whole, about 26 out
equipment--both Army and Navy--ran to
of every 100 pieces produced were self-
$2,859,000,000; this year, production
propelled; and the proportion will rise
is scheduled to reach $6,600,000,000,
to 38 out of 100 in 1943. Our own and
a rise of nearly 130%. In relation to
the Russian armies are beginning to lead
total munitions, 1943 gun production
in the self-propelled field.
will show no perceptible increase, but
technological and strategic shifts to-
AFRICAN ACE
ward improved types are making our guns
Antitank guns constitute the bulk of
more versatile and more powerful.
the self-propelled program. These weap-
ons, also employed for other purposes,
AIRCRAFT CANNON UP
range from the 3'/mm. model mounted on
In aircraft armament, the heavy .50
a light truck up through the 3-inch
caliber machine gun is increasingly
antitank gun (already used with devas-
crowding out the smaller .30 caliber
tating effect in Africa, and expected
type, with production of the latter due
to be production leader in 1943 and 1944)
to stop altogether in April. And air-
and the 105mm. antitank howitzer, both
craft cannon (ranging from 20mm. to 37mm.
the latter mounted mainly on medium-
and even heavier) are displacing part
tank chassis.
of the total aircraft machine-gun out-
put; from zero production in the second
FEWER BIG FIELD PIECES
half of 1940 and 6% in 1941, the pro-
In wheeled artillery and antitank
portion of cannon to the value of total
guns, production emphasis is shifting
aircraft guns is expected to rise to
slightly away from extremely heavy field
28% in 1943 and 37% in 1944.
pieces, including the 240mm. howitzer,
the 8-inch field gun and howitzer, and
HEAVIER TANK GUNS
the 155mm. gun. (None of these except
Tank guns are also becoming more
the 155mm. has yet been made in a self-
powerful. We produced only 37mm. tank
propelled model, although Russia has
guns in 1940 but in the light of battle
self-propelledguns inthese large sizes.)
experience we have slowly shifted out-
Light artillery, also, will fail to ex-
put to heavier types, principally the
pand perceptibly its share of the total.
high-velocity 75mm. gun. This model is
The big gain will come in medium artil-
scheduled to comprise 71% of the value
lery (including the 155mm. howitzer and
of 1943 tank gun production and 74% of the 4.5-inch field gun). Output of
the total in 1944.
wheeled antitank guns will fall off as
In ground artillery, more and more a per cent of the total because more
2
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
and more will be self-propelled models.
weight air-cooled types.
This
yields
Output of the 37mm. wheeled model
greater fire power per pound of gun and
(which was found to be too lightas early
increases the effectiveness of infantry.
as the Spanish Civil War) is being dras-
Among the rifles, the semiautomatic
tically reduced. Fromover three-fourths
.30 caliber Garand has been basic in
of all antitank gun production, numeri-
our production since 1940. But from
cally, in 1940-41, this type will drop
over 90% of the total value of rifle
to 41% in 1943. The 57mm. wheeled type,
production in 1940-41, Garand production
which the British have found useful in
will drop to about 20% in 1943. The
Africa, will (along with self-propelled
semiautomatic .30 caliber carbine--much
models) largely take its place.
like the Garand but lighter in weight--
will be a strong newcomer, rising from
DOUBLE THE 40mm. BOFORS
zero production in 1940-41 to 36% of
In ground antiaircraft guns there
total rifle output in 1943 and 39% in
will be less emphasis on antiaircraft
1944.
machine guns with more attention given
to heavy guns, principally the 90mm.
SIDEARMS
and 4.7-inch types. Output of the 40mm.
The carbine is superseding pistols
Bofors model will double in 1943, but
and other sidearms and is extensively
the 37mm.type (including self-propelled)
used by paratroopers and combat vehicle
will show practically no increase.
crews. Production of certain older
single-shot rifles--the .303 caliber
AIR-COOLED MACHINE GUNS
Lee-Enfield, and the venerable Spring-
Typical of the basic change in em-
field--is being boosted largely for ex-
phasis in the small arms and infantry
port purposes.
weapons field is the shift from water-
This country has no antitank rifle
cooled machine guns, almost universally
comparable to the Canadian .55 caliber
used in the First World War, to lighter-
Boys rifle, or the two-man antitank ri-
fle used by the Russians. On the other
hand, U.S. output of antitank rocket
IN THIS ISSUE:
launchers (handledby twomen and throw-
ing a rocket shell over 2 inches in di-
MORE VERSATILE AND POWERFUL GUNS
ameter) was numerically almost three
1
timesour production of mortars and bomb
FROM SKIRTS TO OVERALLS
4
throwers in 1942.
AIRPLANE OUTPUT LAGS BEHIND NEW SCHEDULE
5
ROCKETS AND FLAME-THROWERS
RAILROAD PROSPECTS FOR 1943
6
A 4.5-inch antitank rocket projec-
KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK
9
tor is in trial stages. We have small
PREPAYING TAXES
(21-ounce) antitank rifle grenades in
10
production but none comparable to a
NEW PLANS FOR GLIDERS
11
heavier Russian type. While produc-
WAR PROGRESS NOTES
12
tion of portable flame-throwers is con-
siderable, we do not as yet produce this
SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS
13
weapon for installation in tanks. Brit-
PRODUCTION PROGRESS (NAVAL SHIPS)
14-16
ish production of sub-machine guns--
"tommy guns"--will increase much more
JANUARY 22, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL 3
AMMUNITION TO RISE MORE THAN GUNS
Schedule for 1943-1944 indicates "ripening" of production program.
1000
1000
Value of Deliveries
800
800
Ground and
Aircraft Ammunition
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
600
600
400
Ground and
400
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
Aircraft Guns
200
200
Actual
Forecast
o
o
1942
1943
1944
WAR PROGRESS
DIVERGENT TRENDS IN GUN AND AMMUNITION SCHEDULES
THEMSELVES. THIS IS A NATURAL SEQUENCE DURING THE
SUGGEST A DEVELOPING MATURITY IN THE MUNITIONS PRO-
SHOOTING PHASE OF WAR. FIRST YOU HAVE TO BUILD
GRAM. BEGINNING THIS YEAR, OUTPUT OF GROUND AND
WEAPONS, THEN AS THEY ARE BUILT AND PUT IN THE FIELD,
AIRCRAFT AMMUNITION (AS WELL AS GUN SPARE PARTS)
YOU HAVE TO PRODUCE A MOUNTING SUPPLY OF AMMUNITION
WILL FORGF AHEAD FASTER THAN PRODUCTION OF THE GUNS
TO FEED THEM.
than U.S. output in 1943. And the Brit-
ited to triple turret broadside types,
ish have recently expanded their mortar
6 inches and over) was only 5% of total
program.
naval gun value in 1942, and will be
hardly more in 1943. In the future, only
FASTER-FIRING NAVAL GUNS
battleships and the heavier cruisers
Naval armament is changing even more
will mount surface fire guns.
than air and ground types. Although
Dual purpose naval guns include the
naval guns are as a whole getting lighter
5-inch and 3-inch types, which can fire
in terms of size of shell fired, greater
horizontally at surface and shore tar-
fire power is being achieved through (1)
gets or low-flying torpedo bombers and
increased rapidity of fire, (2) improved
yet can be elevated for throwing up high
armor piercing and thin-walled super-
altitude "flak." It is literally true
explosive shells, and (3) added mobility
thata modern warship can combat planes
of speedier ships (with emphasis on the
with nearly every weapon on board.
lighter types), on which the guns are
Naval guns specifically for antiair-
mounted.
craft work are getting heavier: More
The main trend is toward guns capable
attention will be given the 5-inch, 3-
of maximum fire power against the new
inch, and 40mm. types, with the 1.1-inch
enemy: the airplane. As a result, de-
model rapidly dropping off the produc-
liveries of surface fire guns (now lim-
tion line. The 20mm. Oerlikon gun, which
2
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
by materials shortages. Limits to the and get demands of the Army, Navy, Mari-
vast resources of the United States are
time Commission, Lend-Lease, and other
clearly in view. And today it becomes
claimants down to supply. That has been
necessary to intensify the war produc-
more or less accomplished. Introduction
tion effort--to maximize it to get the
of the Controlled Materials Plan helped
most out of limited materials, and not,
to force revision of the overall muni-
as last year, to start using seemingly
tions production and war construction
unlimited resources.
program down from about $93,000,000,000
to $82,000,000,000 (WP-Decl8'42,p7), and
OLD PROBLEMS AND NEW
this brought the program within the com-
And some half dozen major problems
pass of the maximum raw-material supply.
are bound to dog the production trail
through the new year. Some are famil-
SYNCHRONIZED PRODUCTION
iar: materials control and manpower.
That, however, does not mean that the
Others are rapidly developing: synchro-
raw-materials problem has been licked.
nization of production of end products
It still is necessary to see that the
and industrial components (bearings,
raw-materials flowis directed into the
engines, fans and blowers, compressors,
right products at the right time. Since
etc. meeting the squeeze on the civil-
1943 is a year of intensification--re-
ian economy; and finally the coordination
quiring the maximum use of limited re-
of the management of our own resources
sources--it will not do to tie up raw
as well as the integration of U.S. pro-
materials in industrial facilities which
duction with that of the other United
cannot be used immediately. Nor will
Nations, especially Great Britain.
it do to tie up raw materials in idle
How these problems will develop and
inventories; for example, producing tanks
the form they will take deserve further
ahead of tank guns or aircraft armament
consideration:
ahead of airplanes; or producing fuses
1. Materials.
ahead of cartridge cases; or overpro-
Until now, the principal problem in
ducing on any end product, thus forcing
raw materials was to increase supply
curtailment of production of some other
end product. In short, balanced--syn-
IN THIS ISSUE:
chronized--production is called for.
SIX MAJOR PROBLEMS FOR 1943
1
But the big raw-materials job-of
SCORECARD ON MERCHANT SHIPPING
cutting demand down to supply, of doing
4
away with the inflation of priorities--
MERCHANT SHIP RECORD
5
has been achieved. Soraw materials are
OF LENSES, VALVES, AND AMPLIDYNES
7
not likely to become an outstanding,
CRITICAL COMPONENTS-BIG JOB FOR 1943
8
overall problem next year.
NEW ECONOMIC TABULATIONS
9
PLANE OUTPUT, PLUS "POOL," UP 18$
10
COMPONENT BOTTLENECK
WAR PROGRESS NOTES
11
Indeed, the production bottleneck
HIGHER INCOME, HIGHER SAVINGS, HIGHER
problem is in the process of transfor-
LIVING COST
12
mation. It's shifting from raw mate-
KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK
13
rials to
SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS
14
2. Industrial components.
PRODUCTION PROGRESS (AIRCRAFT)
15,16
Throughout 1942, output of end prod-
ucts has been held up sporadically by
4
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
FROM SKIRTS TO OVERALLS
Women today constitute a rising percentage of workers in war plants, shipbuilding
included.
In aircraft, 25% of all workers, 90% of net additions are women.
900
900
50
100
Aircraft and Engines
Aircraft and Engines
40
80
THOUSANDS OF WAGE EARNERS
700
700
Women
Men
THOUSANDS OF WAGE EARNERS
NET ADDITIONS OF WAGE EARNERS (000)
30
60
Net Additions
20
40
Women os %
500
500
of Net Additions
WOMEN AS % OF NET ADDITIONS
10
20
300
300
o
o
1941
1942
1941
1942
In metalworking, the proportions are not quite so great: 20% and 80%.
4500
4500
100
100
130 Metalworking Industries
130 Metalworking Industries
75
75
4000
4000
THOUSANDS OF WAGE EARNERS
3500
Women
3500
THOUSANDS OF WAGE EARNERS
NET ADDITIONS OF WAGE EARNERS (000)
50
Net Additions
50
Women as %
of Net Additions
25
25
Men
0
0
3000
3000
Declines in employment
-25
WOMEN AS % OF NET ADDITIONS
2500
2500
-50
2000
2000
-75
1941
1942
1941
1942
In shipbuilding, women are a small but increasing proportion.
1000
1000
80
40
Shipbuilding
Women
Shipbuilding
800
Men
800
THOUSANDS OF WAGE EARNERS
600
600
THOUSANDS OF WAGE EARNERS
NET ADDITIONS OF WAGE EARNERS(000)
60
30
Net Additions
40
20
400
400
WOMEN AS % OF NET ADDITIONS
20
10
200
200
Women os
of Net
0
0
0
Additions
o
1941
1942
1941
1942
WAR PROGRESS
JANUARY 22,1943
CONFIDENTIAL
5
because of its flexibility and quick craft schedules are giving increasing
aiming is the most effective weapon
emphasis to fire control: From 37% of
against dive bombers, is replacing .50
the value of total deliveries of ground
caliber machine guns both on warships
antiaircraft materiel last year, fire
and armed merchant vessels. The effi-
control is scheduled to rise to 51% this
ciency of the Oerlikon has been further
year (WP-Janl'43,p8). Output of naval
increased with a new optical-electric
gun fire control is also scheduled to
sight; and schedules have been drasti-
increase considerably faster than pro-
cally boosted in the last few months.
duction of guns. Ground artillery is
an exception to the rule of more fire
FIRE CONTROL PROBLEM
control relative to output of guns. This
To date, the production of fire-control
is because self-propelled guns increas-
equipment has not kept pace with guns.
ingly dominate the ground artillery pro-
As noted in War Progress last week, fire-
gram; used for short-range combat, they
control equipment for both antiaircraft
employ less complicated fire-control
guns and wheeled artillery were far be-
equipment.
hind1942 objectives. And in many cases,
ship and ground antiaircraft batteries
NOT ENOUGH TO GO AROUND
have had to function withouta full com-
But in any event, fire control this
plement of radar and other modern types
year presents a problem: It greatly
of fire control. And the problem today
enhances the fire power of guns, but be-
is to produce fire-control equipment
cause there will not be enough of the
not only for guns currently being turned
most modern types to go around, it will
out but also for guns already in use.
also be a limiting factor on the effec-
The result is that ground antiair-
tiveness of our guns.
AIRPLANE OUTPUT LAGS BEHIND NEW SCHEDULE
AIRPLANES worth $173,000,000 were ac- for the airplane industry--was met
cepted during the first 15 days of during November and December.
January--$12,000,000 less than in the
The pool of accepted but undelivered
comparable period of December.
The planes, which hit a new high of about
largest part of the decline was in the
1,950
units
at
the
end
of
December
trainer category, off nearly $10,000,-
(WP-Jan18'43,p10),has receded to about
000. Pursuit plane acceptances were
1,300. Part of the expenditure of
down $7,000,000, but other groups, in-
productive energy early in January was
cluding bombers, increased slightly
necessarily devoted to making flyable
over their December 1-15 levels.
a portion of the incomplete planes ac-
In a typical month, about 38% of cepted last month.
total acceptances occur during the
Thus, although the15-day statistics
first 15 days. The indication is that are by no means conclusive, they would
production for the full monthof Jan- seem to suggest that the high level
uarywill fall short of the 8-L sched- of acceptances during December con-
ule of $540,000,000 for the month. stituted in part a loan from this
This schedule--the new official plan month's output.
6
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
Railroad Prospects for 1943
With limited odditions to equipment, the carriers
to carry a freight burden 12% higher--
face a record wartime haul; will have to get
and they're going to get less than 2%
moximum utilization out of existing facil-
more cars to do it. The answer, as last
ities. Oil is dramatic example.
year, is increasing efficiency-utiliz-
ing freight cars and locomotives already
IN 1942, U.S. railroads hauled the larg-
on the line at a maximum.
est volume of freight in their history
--at 635,000,000,000 ton-miles it was
THIS YEAR'S NEEDS
33% above the 1941 total. And, despite
For their 1943 needs, the railroads
misgivings earlier in the year, they
sought 80,000 new freight cars and 900
got over the fall hump with something
locomotives before October 1, but steel
to spare. Carloadings in the peak week
for rolling stock and motive power in
ending October 10 reached 910,000, a
such quantities probably cannot be di-
decline of 13,000 carloads from the peak
verted from planes and tanks and ships
in 1941; yet the ton-miles carried dur-
-and it is doubtful if the railroads
ing the 1942 peak month were actually
would follow through on a program of
30% greater than in the previous year.
that extent even if it were granted.
To a large extent this difference in
At any rate, WPB has authorized ma-
carloadings was the result of:
terial for the construction of 20,000
1. ODT order No.1, which stepped up
cars-mostly for the critical gondola
the minimum weight on less-than-carload
and hopper cars--in the first half of
freight to six tons in May, eight tons
the year, and for 286 locomotives in
in July, and 10 tons after September 1
the first eight months. Also approved
(L.C.L. loadings dropped from 8,000,000
is the construction of 100 switching
in 1941 to 5,600,000 in 1942).
engines in the first six months to re-
2. Similarly, the railroads volun-
lieve congestion in the yards. No pro-
tarily undertook a campaign for tighter
gram has been established as yet for
loading of boxcars (and the ODT, through
construction of cars in the last half
order No.18-effective November 1--made
of the year.
the practice official by calling for
loading of all boxcars to their marked
PEAK WEEK PROBABILITIES
limit or full visible capacity; savings
It is now estimated that net addi-
of an additional 35,000 to 40,000 cars
tions--new cars, plus bad-order cars
a week were realized by the order).
repaired, minus cars destroyed-during
3. Earlier shipping contributed to
the year will bring the number of cars
a marked flattening out of the fall hump.
available for the fall peak of 1943 up
SOME TIGHT SPOTS
to about 1,693,000. And it is estimated
that carloadings in the peak week of
However, 1942 was not so simple as
this year will run to perhaps 935,000.
the overall statistics make it seem.
Last year, at the peak of operations,
There were sporadic delays in furnish-
it took 1.81 cars to move one carload
ing particular types of cars--gondola,
of freight, and at the same rate of
hopper, and tank cars especially. And,
utilization in 1943, maximum weekly car-
this year, the railroads are expected
loadings possible would be just about
JANUARY 22, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL. 7
MORE TON-MILES WITH LESS EQUIPMENT
Freight cars and locomotives work harder than they used to in hauling record loads.
L Although railroad equipment owned has dropped sharply since 1929, and has only begun to rise
moderately,
2400
2400
60
60
56
56
2200
2200
THOUSANDS OF CARS
THOUSANDS OF CARS
THOUSANDS OF LOCOMOTIVES
Locomotives Owned
Freight Cors Owned
52
52
2000
2000
48
48
1800
1800
THOUSANDS OF LOCOMOTIVES
44
44
1600
1600
40
40
1929 30 31 '32 33 34 35 36 '37 '38 '39 '40 41 '42
1929 30' 31 32 33 '34 35 '36 '37 38 39 '40 41 42
2. Bod-order and surplus equipment has been reduced and put into active service;
800
800
20
20
600
600
THOUSANDS OF CARS
400
400
Bod-Order Freight Cars
THOUSANDS OF CARS
THOUSANDS OF LOCOMOTIVES
16
16
Surplus Freight Cors
12
Bod-Order
12
Locomotives
8
8
200
200
4
4
THOUSANDS OF LOCOMOTIVES
Stored Surplus
Locomotives
o
0
o
o
1929 '30'31 '32 '33 '34 '35 '36 37 '38 '39 '40 '41 '42
1929 30 31 '32 33 '34 '35 '36 '37 38 39 '40 '41 '42
3. And this has boosted rolling stock in active use considerably in the lost few years.
2000
2000
50
50
46
46
1800
1800
THOUSANDS OF CARS
Active Freight Cors
THOUSANDS OF CARS
THOUSANDS OF LOCOMOTIVES
42
42
1600
1600
Active Locomotives
38
38
1400
1400
THOUSANDS OF LOCOMOTIVES
34
34
1200
1200
30
30
1929 30 31 '32 33 '34 35 '36 37 '38 '39 '40 '41 '42
1929 30 31 32 '33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
4. Furthermore, because we're getting 75% more ton-miles per carload than in 1929, the railroods
have mc.iaged to handle 0 record volume of troffic.
180
180
800
800
IEO
160
1929
600
140
1929
120
120
BILLIONS OF TON-MILES
600
1942
140
1929.100
1942
1929-100
400
400
200
Ton-Miles of Freight
200
BILLIONS OF TON-MILES
100
Ton-Miles per Carlood
100
80
80
0
0
1929 30 31 '32 33 '34 '35 '36 37 '38 39 '40 41 42
1929 30 31 '32 '33 '34 35 36 37 '38 39 40 '41 42
WAR PROGRESS
8
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
equal to the estimated requirements,
taking bad-order cars off the bad-order
viz.: 1,693,000+1.81 = 935,000.
list, and by putting back on the line
But this ratio, which really repre-
cars normally kept in storage for emer-
sents turn-around time, was up in 1942
gency use. During the last two years,
from the preceding year as a result of
bad-order cars were reduced 65% to a
longer hauls-it took only 1.69 cars to
total of 46,000 on October 1, 1942, and
move a carload of freight in the peak
during the same period, the number of
week of 1941. Should turn-around time
locomotives in bad order came down from
continue to rise in 1943, a slight short-
6,332 to 2,446, a drop of 61% (chart,
age would be indicated at the peak, but
page 7). And surpluses are falling
no major difficulty in handling war
rapidly to a point where they are really.
shipments is foreseen. And at the mo-
not surpluses but bare minima. On Oc-
ment, manpower shortages are regarded
tober 1, 1942, there were only 39,000
as a greater threat to railroad perform-
surplus freight cars, and only 5,000 of
ance in 1943 than equipment shortages.
these were of the critical gondola and
hopper type. And locomotive reserves
LOAD vs. FACILITIES
were down to 705.
But, ever since the war began, there
Can the railroads wring even greater
has been a constant pull of expanding
utilization out of existing facilities
load against facilities. Retirements
in the months ahead? Perhaps the dra-
of equipment have been relatively small,
matic exploits in the transportation of
indicating an accumulating obsolescence
petroleum suggest that they can.
that might break through at any point
In peacetime, less than 1% of the
in the future to discredit the "arith-
1,500,000 barrels of oil daily consumed
metical" balance of carrying and tractive
in the East move by tank cars. But once
capacity against load. On January 1,
the submarine checked tanker deliveries
1942, only about 18% of the freight car
of oil, after Pearl Harbor, the rail-
inventory represented purchases made in
roads increased their haulage of oil
the preceding decade, and about 80% of
more than tenfold to an average of 760,-
the steam locomotives were over 16 years
000 barrels daily by the end of 1942--
old. Additional new equipment has been
and now they're shooting at a minimum
small in comparison to the sharp rise
of 900,000 barrels a day.
in traffic:
"SYMBOL" SHIPMENTS
New Equipment
Ton Miles
To do the job, ODT has directed some
Freight Cars Locomotives
(Billions)
70,000 tank cars--about half the total
1929
94,946*
1,229*
447
owned--into exclusive eastern petroleum
1937
69,118
441
361
service. If any of them are taken off
1939
23,236
298
333
for any reason, they must be replaced
1940
60,455
421
373
at once with cars of at least equal ca-
1941
76,392
620
475
pacity (7,000 gallons is the established
1942
63,000p
700p
630
minimum).
*Installed
ODT is also channeling an increasing
pPreliminary
amount of petroleum shipments into "sym-
bol" trains-so-called "oil pullmans"
In this situation, the railroads have
reminiscent of the famous "silk train"
"maintained" facilities by repairing and
that raced from Seattle to New York in
JANUARY i22, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL
9
prewar days carrying interest-bearing
a requirement that they be released in
silk loads. Operating on through sched-
no more than 15 hours after delivery;
ules and on specified through routes,
(2) a limit of four hours for switching -
the symbol trains move in solid lots--
cars at points of origin and termina-
the empties on the return trip to the
tion; (3) immediate repair of defective
oil fields, as well as the loaded cars
cars without need of authorization from
on the run east. And railroads must
the owner.
abide by the routes laid out by ODT;
when shippers' instructions conflict
CENTRAL ROUTING
with the symbol schedule, carriers are
Also, ODT now requires & permit to
ordered to ignore them.
move any commodity in a tank car for a
Today, 85% of the petroleum traffic
distance of less than 200 miles. This
eastward is moving in symbol trains as
encourages truck-hauling of oil for short
compared with 65% last fall, and it is
runs and has already released over 10,-
hoped to raise this ratio to 95%.
000 tank cars for longer hauls.
Beauty of the symbol train is its
SHORTER TURN-AROUNDS
central routing: In making up its sched-
Maximum symbol train operation great--
ule, known temporary bottlenecks, man-
ly facilitates the policy of shorter
power shortages, etc. are avoided and
turn-around time--it's come down from
the train takes the fastest route east,
25 to 19 days for the average 3,600 mile
although in mileage it may appear cir-
round trip. To bring this about, ODT
cuitous. Furthermore, the symbol train
ordered (1) a limit of seven hours for
gives force and precision to utilization
loading and unloading of tank cars, with
orders in yards and terminals. Tn short,
KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK
Latest
Preceding
Month
6 Months
Year
Week
Week
Ago
Ago
Ago
War program Checks paid (millions of dollars)
1,446
1,414
1,237
968
509
War bond sales (millions of dollars)
344
219
213
202
250
Commodity prices (August 1939 = 100)
28 Basic commodities
173.6
173.8
172.0
167.3
164.1
Controlled
161.8
r162.0
162.2
162.8
161.6
Uncontrolled
203.4
r203.7
196.4
179.0
170.3
Nonferrous metal scrap
117.5
117.5
117.5
120.3
130.5
Petroleum carloadings (no. of tank cars)
Total
53,156
49,045
49,974
56,184
51,840
Movement into East
26,666
25,129
23,966
26,285
1,827
Exports (no. of freight cars unloaded for export Friday)
Atlantic Coast ports
1,156
1,262
4,066
1,289
1,646
Gulf Coast ports
370
363
351
531
408
Pacific Coast ports
926
1,027
909
589
165
Strikes affecting the war effort
Number in progress
13
6
5
17
n.a.
Man-days lost
82,995
15,973
19,930
26,502
n.a.
Unused steel capacity (% operations below capacity)
0.2
0.7
1.9
2.0
5.0
n.a. Not available
I Revised
10
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
it tends to expedite efficiency all along
the line.
PREPAYING TAXES
Indeed, it is not impossible to en-
2000
2000
visage a wider use of symbol-type trains
Sales of Tax Savings Notes have risen
for moving particular commodities in bulk
sharply in recent months;
--coal, certain types of agricultural
1600
1600
products, or even manufactured products
--whenever there is (1) a concentration
of supply, and (2) a directional con-
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1200
1200
800
800
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
centration of consumption.
New Plans for Gliders
Campaigns in Africa and Guadalcanal prove they
400
400
can carry cargoes as well as troops. Program,
badgered by production problems, will rise
to peak this spring.
0
o
1941
1942
GLIDERS, generally designated as troop
carriers, have been used in the North
1200
1200
And redemptions-especially in major
African campaign to ferry equipment;
income tax payment months- also have
also to carry supplies to Guadalcanal.
been reaching higher.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
800
BOO
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
And specially designed cargo gliders are
now to be built.
So far, U.S. glider output has been
400
400
comparatively limited. Only five mil-
itary gliders were built in 1941; and
only 34 in the first half of 1942. But,
0
o
during the second half, production rose
1941
1942
sharply, 600 being turned out in Novem-
50
50
ber. However, because of numerous pro-
The proportion of income, gift and
duction difficulties-shortages of turn-
estate taxes paid by paper (redemp-
tions) grows.
buckles, struts, bearings, tubing, ply-
40
40
wood, and other materials, and labor
% OF PAYMENTS FOR INCOME, GIFT AND ESTATE TAXES
30
30
% OF PAYMENTS FOR INCOME, GIFT AND ESTATE TAXES
difficulties--production fell off sharp-
ly in December (chart, page 11).
LESS THAN 1% OF' PROGRAM
In dollar terms, gliders constitute
20
20
only a fraction of 1% of the total mu-
nitions program, amounting to $19,500,-
000 in 1942, and scheduled at $133,000,-
10
IO
000 this year. The peak rate, around
800 per month, should be attained this
spring; after that, schedules taper off.
o
0
1941
1942
Glider production has been slow start-
WAR PROGRESS
ing because few manufacturers had ex-
JANUARY 22, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL 11
CONCENTRATED PRODUCTION
Two-fifths of the 1943 glider program is scheduled for three months this spring.
20
20
Glider Production Volue of Deliveries
15
15
Forecast
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
10
10
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
5
5
Actual
o
o
1942
1943
MAR PROGRESS
perience. For example, a furniture
gliders made available in 1942 stood up
company in Arkansas and a refrigerator
much better than expected; and glider
company in Michigan are making gliders.
pilots can train as readily in light
Design changes have also held up pro-
power planes as in gliders.
duction.
All the three-place trainer gliders
"produced" in 1942 were converted light
CARRIERS AND TRAINERS
(two-place) power planes, such as Aer-
The program breaks down into troop
oncas, Piper Cubs, Taylorcraft, with
carriers, cargo carriers, and trainers.
engine removed (its weight replaced by
Troop carriers are heavily concentrated
a third passenger) and some extra brac-
in the 15-place type, but 30-place (ex-
ing added. But it has now been decided
perimental), 24-place (exclusively for
that the engine--weighing about 150
the Navy), 12-place, nine-place and
pounds--may as well remain and one less
eight-place (experimental) types also
passenger be taken up. Gliding char-
have been or will be turned out.
acteristics are not changed, but expense,
time, and materials necessary to convert
TRAINERS DISPLACED
these planes are saved. And the planes,
The much bigger 8-K schedule for
merely by turning the motor switch, can
troop-carrying gliders in 1943 was cut
be used as communications planes, for
58% in the new 8-L program, in part to
which they were originally designed.
balance production against the number
of tow-planes available. And output of
EASY TAKE-OFFS
trainer gliders has been almost elim-
Gliders have special advantages over
inated-down from over 6,000 (three-
heavily laden transports. Pulled by a
and two-place units) to only about 300
tow plane, they do not need to take off
(two-place) units. The 800-odd trainer
from long, smooth runways, as do such
12
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
transports. Nor do they require as large
at all. Experiments are going forward
fields for landing.
with a mechanism by which a tow-plane
Indeed, it may not even be necessary
would swoop down and pick up a glider
for gliders to take off from airfields
tow cable without landing.
War Progress Notes
PREPAID TAXES
Profits 1942
1941
1942
% Change
BEST SALESMEN for Tax Savings Notes
(inmillions)
(appliable against income, gift and
Trade
$800
$ 712
-11.0%
estate taxes) have been rising personal
Retail
470
565
+22.2
and corporate tax rates. Cumulative
Construction
77
97
+26.0
sales since the initial offering in Au-
Transportation
881
1,286
+53.9
gust, 1941, had climbed to almost $9,-
Power and gas.
391
322
-17.6
000,000,000 by the end of 1942, and
Communications
210
223
+ 6.2
monthly sales since the passage' of the
Finance
455
445
- 2.2
Revenue Act of 1942 last September have
Service
82
95
+15.7
averaged $1,000,000,000 a month (chart,
page 10). Last March about one-sixth
Out of every $100 earned before taxes,
of the income and inheritance tax col-
manufacturing industries paid $67 in
lections were in the form of redemptions
taxes; in 1941, the ratio was 52%. In
of these notes. By December, the pro-
mining, $44 out of every $100 earned be-
portion had risen to a third. Thus,
fore taxes went to the tax collector
cash to the Treasury in the past means
last year, against $29 in 1941; in trade,
"paper" to the Treasury in the present.
the ratios were 56% and 39%.
Though the major factor, taxes were
CORPORATION EARNINGS
not the sole factor cutting into 1942
DESPITE ARISE of 40% in income and ex-
profits. Accumulation of special ré-
cess-profits taxes, corporation earnings
serves (often postwar), amortization
last year were only 6.2% lower than in
plans, and the increased use of the
1941--$6,760,000,000 against $7,200,-
"last-in first-out" inventory method,
000,000.
curtailed book profits. These last fac-
A few industries-agriculture, com-
tors are likely to operate again this
munication, transportation, metalwork-
year.
ing, retail trade--reported gains, con-
trary to the general trend:
FEMALES IN FACTORIES
WOMEN are moving into the workbenches
Profits 1942
of aircraft and metalworking plants--
1941
1942
% Change
and even the brawny shipbuilding indus-
(in millions)
try--in increasing force. In November,
Total
$7,206
$6,762
- 6.2%
female employment rose 16% in 134 war
Agriculture
25
35
+40.0
industries (chart, page 4). In fact,
Mining
220
216
- 1.8
70% of the net additions were women,
Manufacturing. 4,275
3,508
-17.9
bringing total female employment to
Metalworking
955,000--an increase of 133% over a year
industries
1,610
1,065
+24.5
ago and 16.6% of the total workers.
JANUARY 22, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL 13
Plants have had a hard time hiring
a woman worker in normal times-didn't
men to replace those who have joined the
turn tohiring women on any appreciable
armed services, and in more and more in-
scale until September, but during No-
dustries, women are the sole source of
vember, 7,900 of the 41,000 workers
expanding rosters. In airframe plants,
added to the labor force were women--
total employment from August to November
a ratio of one woman to every four men.
rose 20.3%-entirely as a result of hir-
Over 20,000 women now work in shipyards
ing 74,000 women. Only 18,000 men were
--but this is only 2.2% of the total
taken on and they canceled out those who
wage earners.
had left.
The metalworking industries are keep-
SWISS WATCHES
ing upwith expanding war demands almost
DESPITE the war, exports from European
entirely by recruiting women for bench
neutrals still dribble into the United
jobs. Out of a net increase of 99,000
States. During September and October,
workers in November, 83,000 were women.
Switzerland led with a total of $5,300,-
And in the nonferrous metal products
000--mainly watches and parts. Other
industries, women are the only new hands
United States imports were: Turkey,
--18,300 men who were lost have not been
$4,500,000--largely tobacco and chrome;
replaced.
Portugal, $1,300,000; Spain, $800,000;
Shipyards--the last place to look for
Eire, $130,000, and Sweden, $80,000.
SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS
Some
Some
Lotest
Preceding
2 Months
6 Months
Year
Month
Month
Month
Month
Ago
Ago
Ago
1939
1937
PRODUCTION INDEX-INDUSTRIAL t
p192
195
194
177
164
122
86
Total Manufactures
p205
206
204
185
171
124
82
Duroble
P281
280
275
246
211
136
79
Nonduroble
p143
146
147
136
138
115
85
Minerols
p121
132
135
132
126
112
104
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS Cents)
All Monufacturing Industries
89.9
88.6
88.5
83.1
78.1
65.3
65.6
Duroble Goods
100.3
98.8
99.5
92.3
86.5
71.5
71.3
Nonduroble Goods
76.3
75.7
74.9
72.2
68.8
59.9
60.2
Bituminous Cool Mining
107.3
107.5
106.5
106.0
105.1
88.8
87.8
Metolliferous Mining
92.8
90.6
89.7
87.6
84.8
73.6
69.9
AVERAGE HOURS PER WEEK
All Monufocturing Industries
44.0
43.6
42.3
42.6
40.3
38.5
35.4
Durable Goods
46.0
45.7
44.6
45.0
41.8
39.6
36.2
Nonduroble Goods
41.1
40.6
39.5
39.7
38.6
37.6
34.7
Bituminous Cool Mining
34.4
34.2
33.5
32.7
31.3
31.4
26.9
Metalliferous Mining
44.4
46.3
45.4
43.8
42.1
41.5
43.1
Production indexes, December: hours and earnings. November. Unadjusted. P Preliminary.
JANUARY 8, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL
3
shortages of compressors or propulsion
That is problem No. 3 for 1943.
machinery and other industrial and mu-_
Where are we to get 6,500,000 addi-
nitions components. And toward the end
tional persons for the armed forces and
of the year, more and more such compo-
for war production?
nents--heat exchangers, pumps, turbines,
gears, etc.--threaten to become produc-
ARMS AND THE MANPOWER_
tion bottlenecks (page 7). A tank can-
The Army and Navy are expected to
not go into action without roller bear-
recruit 4,400,000 men by the end of 1943.
ings any more than a plane can fly with-
About 2,100,000 more persons will be
out an ignition system.
needed for war production. Curtailment
of civilian activities, a longer work
BALANCE WITH END PRODUCTS.
week, and cuts in construction will help
And late last year, shortages of com-
to solve the problemof where increased
ponents-of essential parts and acces-
man-hourswill come from (WP-Janl'43,pl).
sories to end products--were obscured
But it is little more than half the an-
by the overall, and larger, shortage of
swer. If war production plans are to
raw materials. Manufacturers of com-
be met, several million women must leave
ponents blamed delays in deliveries of
the home for the work bench.
steel, or copper, or aluminumfor failure
The problem of manpower is not alone
to meet schedules; yet even had they had
a question of Who? but of Where? Can
the necessary raw materials, they might
workers be induced to leave their homes
have failed to meet due dates on their
for work in areas where they are most
orders because of lack of capacity.
needed? Can workers be kept in over-
Thus, during 1943, it will become
crowded production centers when their
increasingly important to tie in the
wages are frozen and their living con-
output of industrial components to the
ditions unsatisfactory?
production of end products; it will be
just as urgent to see that the output
SURPLUS AND DEFICIT AREAS
of welding rods or valves meets the
Thus, though manpower can well prove
overall industrial demand as it is to
to be a major limiting factor to pro-
see' that there is sufficient steel or
duction on a national scale, its treat-
copper to go around the munitions and
ment--and its solution--cannot be met
war construction program.
in terms of statistical totals. Manpower
shortages must be met on a region-by-
COMING: A CCP?
region, plant-by-plant basis. If a cer-
Just as we now have a Controlled Ma-
tain area cannot get workers, is it wise
terials Plan designed to tie raw mate-
to transfer production out of that area;
rials into end products, so it may be
if certain plants need help, can the
necessary to develop what might be de-
workers be moved to the plant? And will
scribed as a "controlled components
itbe better to use less efficient fac-
plan" to synchronize the production of
tories in labor-surplus areas than more
industrial components with schedules of
efficient factories in labor-deficit
end products for maximum overall war
areas?
output.
Problem No. 4 relates to the civil-
And this year, for the first time,
ian economy. And this is one which con-
manpower--prime resource of any nation
tains more possibilities for confusion
--will become a bottleneck.
and dissatisfaction than any other.
14 CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
PRODUCTION PROGRESS
Naval, Army, and Merchant Ships and Equipment (Continued)
Naval Torpedoes, Depth Charges,
Noval Equipment and Maintenance
and Mines
Including Signal Equipment
20
200
Forecost
15
150
Forecost
10
Actual
100
Actual
5
50
o
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
Merchant Ships - - Total
Dry Cargo Vessels - Ocean Going
400
250
Forecast
VALUE PUT IN PLACE MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
Forecost
200
300
150
200
Actual
100
Actual
100
VALUE PUT IN PLACE - MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
50
0
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
Tankers - Ocean Going
Other Merchant Vessels
75
25
Forecost*
20
50
Forecost
15
10
25
Actual
Actual
5
0
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
*Bosed on lotest procurement schedules.
WAR PROGRESS
JANUARY 22, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL 15
PRODUCTION PROGRESS
Naval, Army, and Merchant Ships and Equipment (Continued)
Transports, Landing Vessels,
and Army Auxiliaries
Transports
250
30
200
6.
Forecast
20
150
Forecost
100
10
Actual
50
Actual
o
o
1942
1943
1942.
1943
Landing Vessels
Army Auxiliaries
200
30
VALUE PUT IN PLACE - MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
Forecost*
150
20
100
Forecost"
10
50
VALUE PUT IN PLACE - MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
Actual
Actual
o
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
Naval Guns and Fire Control
Noval Gun Ammunition
150
150
Forecost *
Forecost
100
100
Actual
50
50
Actual
o
o
1942
1943
1942
1943
#
Bosed on lotest procurement schedules.
WAR PROGRESS
16 CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
PRODUCTION PROGRESS
Naval, Army, and Merchant Ships and Equipment
Total Noval Vessels
Battleships, Cruisers, Corriers
800
125
Forecost
Forecost
100
600
75
Actual
400
50
Actual
200
25
O
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
Destroyers
Submorines
125
60
VALUE PUT IN PLACE - MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
Forecost
100
Forecost
40
75
Actual
50
20
Actual
VALUE PUT IN PLACE - MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
25
o
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
Antisubmarine
Other Minor Combat Ships,
Naval Auxiliaries, and Conversions
400
125
100
300
Forecost
75
Forecost*
200
50
100
Actual
25
Actual
0
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
.
Bosed on latest procurement schedules
WAR PROGRESS
WAR PROGRESS
Confidential
(British Secret)
known - n
the -
Integrating U.K.-U.S. War Output
Production Progress Tables
Number 124
January 29,1943
CONFIDENTIAL
NUMBER 124
WAR PROGRESS
JANUARY 29, 1943
When 2-to-1 Is Not Twice as Much
Although 1943 combat munitions output of
the United Nations is likely to more
PRELUDE TO INTEGRATION?
than double that of the Axis, lack of
THE MEETING of President Roosevelt
integration cuts down that margin.
and Prime Minister Churchill at Casa-
blanca conceivably can and will go
THIS YEAR, the United Nations are ex-
beyond the sphere of military strategy.
pected to outproduce the Axis in combat
If military operations are to be
munitions--aircraft, combat vehicles,
coordinated closely, then it follows
ground and aircraft ordnance and ammu-
that production of munitions ought
nition, communications equipment, naval
likewise to be more closely inte-
and merchant ships-by a margin of more
grated--so as to get more of the
than two to one (chart, page 5).
right type of weapons at the right
The United States alone will turn
place at the right time.
out considerably more military items
Until now, attempts to integrate
than Germany, the occupied countries,
the production and resources of the
Italy, and Japan combined. And, on the
United States and Great Britain have
basis of current estimates, 1943 United
been sporadic rather than consistent,
Nations production will be distributed
and have seldom gone much beyond the
approximately as follows: United States,
allocation of raw materials and as-
60%; British Empire, around 25%; Russia,
signment of end products: The reasons
an assumed 15%.
for this and the benefits to be de-
NAZI INTEGRATION
rived from closer integr.tion are
analyzed in the accompanying article.
it can't be said, however, that the
United Nations will have an actual two-
to-one edge over German combat munitions
output of combat munitions (estimated
production. For Nazi output may be re-
at $80,000,000,000 for 1943) most effec-
garded as more thoroughly integrated
tive in winning the war, programs should
than that of the United Nations.
be planned on an Allied scale. Unques-
The munitions production of all Axis
tionably, it is easy to exaggerate the
Europe-Cermany, France, Czechoslovakia
value of integrated production among
Austria, Italy, Belgium, Holland, and
allies, but more can be done than has
other industrial areas--is planned in
so far been accomplished. Each country,
Berlin. The United Nations output is
ideally, should produce those things-
planned independently in Washington,
tanks, aircraft, ships, guns, etc.-for
London, and Moscow-often without regard
which it has the best resources and fa-
for each other's needs. However, there
cilities. To do this fully, however,
is an allocation of raw materials by the
would require not only concerted action
United Kingdom and the United States
in wartime, but joint planning before
through the Combined Raw Materials Board
the war.
(WP-Dec4'42p9).
So far, United Nations industrial
Yet, to make the huge United Nations
integration has involved only British
2
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
and American production. Russia has
States have increasingly exchanged in-
been particularly reticent about its
formation, and some integration of the
production, and American analysts thus
two economies represents an initial step
far apparently have known less about
toward unifying the United Nations war
U.S.S.R. munitions output than about
efforts.
Germany's.
Indeed, integration becomes more ur-
gent as the two countries approach the
OBSTACLES TO PLANNING
limits of economic resources--as man-
In wartime some planning among allies
power, materials, and machines are stretched
is automatic (WP-Jan8'43p1), but full
fine. Great Britain is devoting an es-
integration is beset by economic and
timated 45% of her national income to
political difficulties, especially as
the production of war goods and services;
the output becomes bigger. Procurement
the United States, about 40%. Thus a
officers prefer to depend on the manu-
major part of the economic slack has
facturers of their own country; they
been taken up in both countries--more
feel that foreign producers can't always
so in Great Britain, which got started
be relied on to deliver goods on sched-
on her war effort earlier than the United
ule or that lack of shipping or a delay
States.
in fulfilling military commitments will
disrupt the flow of supplies.
ECONOMIES CLOSER
But now that this country is fast
EXCHANGE OF INFORMATION
emerging from the tooling-up stage in-
Moreover, cooperation among allies
to a full munitions production stage,
is not always so close as may be desired.
actual deliveries of munitions. will
Military plans are necessarily kept se-
come closer to the taut per capita and
cret, hence full and open discussion of
per resource production relationship
where munitions can be assigned most
that exists in Great Britain.
effectively is not always possible.
However, Great Britain and the United
BRITISH SHARE OF TOTAL
The United Kingdom has only one-third
the population and one-sixth the steel
IN THIS ISSUE:
capacity, yet in 1942 it produced more
than half as much combat munitions as
WHEN 2-T0-1 IS NOT TWICE AS MUCH
1
the United States. (This was possible
KEY STAT'ISTICS OF THE WEEK
7
partly because the United States supplied
JEEPS, PEEPS, ETC
8
raw materials and foodstuffs to the
British.) In many items the proportion
WAR PROGRESS NOTES
9
was higher, and in a few cases British
BORROWED PRODUCTION
9
output exceeded ours. Thus, in November,
THE SHRINKING DOLLAR
1942, the British produced more anti-
10
aircraft ammunition, mortar bombs, mines
SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS
11
and grenades than the United States.
PRODUCTION PROGRESS TABLES (GENERAL
However, U.S. output will run increas-
SUMMARY)
12,14,16
ingly ahead of the British, as the fol-
PRODUCTION PROGRESS CHARTS (GENERAL
lowing table indicates, except for a
SUMMARY)
13,15
few items, such as wheeled artillery
(we're shifting to self-propelled), tank
JANUARY 29, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL
3
guns, and small arms ammunition:
It is up to the United States to use its
resources to fill gaps in the United
U.K. Production as
Kingdom's output. Thus, the British
% of U.S. Output
will get from this country more trans-
4th Quarter
ports, flying boats, light bombers, and
Nov. 142
143*
naval carrier-based aircraft than they
Mortar bombs, mines
will themselves produce. On the other
& grenades
191%
85%
hand, they will get only a small portion
Antiaircraft amm
102
44
of their heavy and medium bombers, land-
Aircraft amm
83
45
based fighters, and trainers from the
Medium bombers
79
36
United States.
Fighter & naval re-
con. planes
75
34
INTERCHANGE OF BOMBSIGHTS
Heavy bombers
74
42
The British also depend on American
Wheeled artillery
71
72
producers for varying proportions of
Artillery & tank
aircraft components--engines, propel-
amm
58
36
lers, carburetors, bombsights. radio
Trainer planes
41
37
and radar equipment. For instance,
Aircraft ordnance
41
32**
British production of Hercules and Cen-
Aircraft engines
39
22
taurus engines depend in part on U.S.
Aircraft propellers
37
26
Bendix carburetors; while their turbo-
Small arms & infan-
superchargers--one of the devices which
try weapons
36
33
enable planes to fly at extremely high
Antiaircraft guns &
altitudes--are strictly American prod-
equipment
32
28
ucts. In bombsights, there has been a
Tank guns
30
33
profitable interchange. One of the
Combat vehicles
28
24
American designs is supplied to the
Light bombers
21
13
British; another, originally of British
Flying boats
15
14
design, is manufactured on both sides
Small arms amm
10
12
of the Atlantic.
Self-propelled guns
2
4**
Of British supplies of tanks in 1942,
Service combat
one-third came from the United States.
planes
0.04
0.05
About one-half the components for United
*Forecast monthly average
Kingdom tanks have been supplied by
**Second quarter monthly average
American plants, including engines,
transmissions, gun mounts, armor plate,
As recently built or converted Amer -
springs, carbon-steel castings, etc.
ican plants begin to operate, this coun-
The United States also supplied compo-
try's superior resources will show up
nents for Canadian tank production.
in production relationships. Thus, by
December, 1943, it is estimated that
SMALL ARMS TO BRITAIN
the United States will turn out combat
The British are self-sufficient in
munitions at three times the United
field artillery and largely so in anti-
Kingdom rate.
aircraft guns, but the major portion of
Integration of Anglo-American output
their supply of 20mm. weapons in 1943
is more than the attainment of maximum
must come from the United States. In
production on both sides of the Atlantic.
small arms, a quarter of the United
4
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
Kingdom supply comes from the United. with British battle experience. An out-
States, but in small arms ammunition the
standing example is the M4 medium tank.
proportion reaches one-half. The United
The M4's predecessor, the M3, was de-
States also supplies the deficit in Great
signed by British and American tank ex-
Britain's capacity to produce many stand-
perts after the fall of France.
ard "noncommon" weapons--not used by
American forces-such as the .303 cal-
HOW M4 EVOLVED
iber rifle, .38 caliber revolver, and
British contributions to the M3 were
related ammunition.
(1) the cast steel turret; (2) the hy-
The British depend on the United
droelectric power traverse; and (3) the
States for a large number of landing
basket attached to the turret which en-
craft and for many escort vessels, mine-
ables the commander and gun crew to move
layers, minesweepers, motor torpedo
with the gun. When combat experience
boats, etc. In addition, American-built
showed that the M3 had grave deficien-
merchant ships will be used to carry
cies, an improved model was designed in
goods to the United Kingdom.
Canada. This tank had a cast steel and
welded hull, the sidemounted sponson
CONTRAST WITH LAST WAR
gun was removed, and a 6-pounder (or
The position of the United States as
75mm. gun) was placed in the turret.
a large supplier of its allies is in
The U.S. Ordnance engineers then modi-
contrast to the last war. Then, half
fied the Canadian tank-principally by
the airplanes, three-fourths of the com-
enlarging the turret-to produce the
bat engines, and five-sixths of the ar-
current M4.
tillery pieces used by American forces
were purchased from the Allies, notably
CASE OF THE LIBERTY SHIP
France and Britain.
The Liberty ship is also an American
The first phase of Anglo-American
adaptation. of a British model. Simi-
integration of production-if it can be
larly, the British are supplying tech-
called integration--occurred during 1939
nical data for the building of corvettes
and 1940 and followed the rules of the
in American shipyards. In aircraft, an
marketplace. Within the limits set by
important example of Anglo-American co-
their dollar resources, the British
ordination is the new Mustang fighter.
bought whatever munitions and other sup-
The R.A.F. and U.S. Army Air Force con-
plies they could and financed the erec-
ducted experiments which have resulted
tion of war plants, particularly for
in the decision to equip the American
explosives and small arms ammunition.
Mustang with a Packard-Merlin engine
When the United States began to rearm
(an American version of a British en-
rapidly--after the fall of France--Brit-
gine). The result is an all-purpose
ish purchases were to some extent co-
plane that in some respects has advan-
ordinated with U.S. procurement plans.
tages over the famous Spitfire. The
This was the second phase of integration.
United States has now raised the Mus-
tang to a prominent position inits pur-
BRITISH BATTLE LESSONS
suit program.
In this phase, marked by America's
The actual entry of the United States
preparation for war, rather than large-
into the war introduced a third phase
scale participation, the design of some
into Anglo-American production relations
of our munitions was altered to accord
by broadening the area of cooperation.
JANUARY 29,1943
CONFIDENTIAL
5
Concurrently, since this country was
to this phase of economic integration.
rapidly approaching the limits of its
If the master plan of military strategy
resources and tighter controls over raw
conceived by the two leaders is to be
materials were instituted, the need for
most effectively carried out, it will
increased joint planning was emphasized.
have to be backed up by a master plan
This week's meeting between President
of munitions manufacturing.
Roosevelt and Prime Minister Churchill
But the overall problem of integra-
undoubtedly will give a further impetus
tion is much more than tying in British
AXIS VS. UNITED NATIONS WAR OUTPUT
American production of combat munitions is destined to rise to nearly 50% of
world total and tips balance in favor of Allies; German, Japanese volume
at peak.
100
100
(Foreign figures are estimates)
Russio
2
Russia
80
Jopan
British Empire
80
British
Nozi
U.S.
Empire
Europe
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
60
60
40
40
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
Japon
U.S.
20
20
Non
Europe
0
o
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
Dec. 1943
Annual Rote
WAR PROGRESS
AT THE OUTSET OF THE WAR IN 1939, GERMAN AND RUS-
BUT IN 1941, THE MOUNTING WEIGHT OF ALLIED OUTPUT
SIAN PRODUCTION OF COMBAT MUNITIONS-AIRCRAFT, COM-
TURNED THE BALANCE AGAINST THE AXIS, THOUGH AXIS
BAT VEHICLES, GROUND AND AIRCRAFT ORDNANCE, COMMUN-
STOCKPILES STILL HAD TO BE OFFSET. AND LAST YEAR,
ICATIONS EQUIPMENT, AND NAVAL AND MERCHANT SHIPS-
AS UNITED STATES PRODUCTION WAS STEPPED UP SHARPLY,
WERE ABOUT EQUAL. BUT SOON, WITH ITS SUPERIOR IN-
THE UNITED NATIONS ARE ASSUMED TO HAVE HAD A FIVE-
DUSTRIAL RESOURCES, THE REICH'S OUTPUT FAR OUTRAN
TO-THREE EDGE.
THE U.S.S.R.'S, ESPECIALLY SINCE, IN 1940 AND 1941,
MOST COUNTRIES HAVE ALREADY APPROACHED THEIR
GERMANY HAD ACCESS TO THE FACTORIES AND RAW MATER-
PEAK. MUNITIONS OUTPUT. INDEED, BECAUSE OF A SHORT-
IALS OF CONQUERED COUNTRIES PLUS ITALY'S RESOURCES
AGE OF MANPOWER AND MATERIALS, THE DETERIORATION
AS AN ALLY.
OF QUIPMENT, AND CONSTANT AERIAL BOMBINGS, NAZI
GREAT BRITAIN WAS SLOWER TO GET INTO FULL ARMS
FACTORIES ARE HARD PUT TO MAINTAIN CURRENT LEVELS.
PRODUCTION THAN EITHER GERMANY OR RUSSIA. IN 1940,
RUSSIAN ARMS MANUFACTURE HAS ALSO PROBABLY REACHED
HER OUTPUT WAS HALF THE ESTIMATED RUSSIAN AND ONLY
ITS PEAK. BUT THE UNITED STATES OUTPUT 1S STILL
40% OF THE GERMAN VOLUME. AXIS PRODUCTION (INCLUD-
ON THE RISE, AND BY THE END OF THIS YEAR WILL AC-
ING GERMANY, THE OCCUPIED COUNTRIES, AND JAPAN)
COUNT FOR AN ESTIMATED 65% OF UNITED NATIONS PRO-
CONTINUED TO EXCEED THAT OF RUSSIA, BRITAIN, AND
DUCTION AND ALMOST HALF THE OUTPUT OF COMBAT MUNI-
THIS COUNTRY COMBINED.
TIONS IN THE ENTIRE WARRING WORLD.
6
..CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
and American munitions production lines.
of
manpower. Relative consumption of
What about raw materials? Great Britain
critical materials must also be consid-
depends on the U.S. for about one-sixth
ered. For many items, American plants
of her supply of copper, one-fourth of
offer greater scope for mass production
her T.N.T. and carbon steel, and one-
than the British, but in others the
third of her alloy steel.
British have more experience and, there-
The question is: Can we make the
fore, can produce more efficiently.
largest volume of supplies available to
4. Proximity to Theatre of Opera-
the United Nations armies by exporting
tions. Since the fighting is worldwide,
to the British materials or end prod-
production should be integrated on the
ucts? Since there may not be enough
basis of proximity to the theatre of
critical materials to keep all British
operations. This policy is already in
and American facilities going at full
force to some extent. Thus, the United
speed, we must decide between idle ca-
States is sending more supplies than
pacity in Great Britain and in the
the United Kingdom to the Pacific area.
United States.
The United Kingdom is supplying our
INTEGRATION FACTORS
forces in Europe with foodstuffs (par-
ticularly perishables and bulky things
In solving this problem, some of the
like potatoes and flour), some munitions
considerations which have to be weighed
(fighter planes, antiaircraft guns, bombs,
are:
grenades, etc.) and were to a large ex-
1. Shipping. The availability of
tent responsible for transporting them
cargo space obviously determines the
to North Africa. Repair of ships also
amount of U.S. supplies (materials or
offers a good example of the cooperative
finished munitions) that can be sent
use of facilities. American yards re-
abroad. This factor influences all de-
pair British naval vessels operating in
cisions in integrating Anglo-American
the Pacific, while British yards service
production.
American ships operating in European
2. Security. Because British plants
waters.
are within the enemy's bombing range,
some of them--like shipyards--can only
TIME ELEMENT
operate on daylight shifts. Hence, the
Also, there is the question of im-
United States must produce enough of
pact on the enemy. The British have
the critical items (like merchant ves-
industrial equipment which can immedi-
sels) to leave a margin of safety.
ately produce munitions for use against
3. Efficiency. In determining which.
the Nazis, provided certain essential
fabricating capacity will be most fully.
components (tank parts, for example) are
utilized, tests of efficiency must be
obtained from the United States. If
applied, though the most obvious tests
American industrial components are shipped
will not always be decisive. Thus, in
abroad, the presumption is that they
some cases, facilities that require
will be used more quickly against Axis
least man-hours per unit of end item
forces than if they were retained in the
should receive priority, but in other
United States for assembly into finished
cases-where speed is most vital-it may
munitions.
be better to concentrate production in
5. Manpower. The availability of
plants that can turn out end products
labor for a given job is a basic factor
quickly, even though they are wasteful
in coordinating the production of the
4
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
SCORECARD ON MERCHANT SHIPPING
United Nations tonnage in December scores sharpest gain since war
started as construction rises and sinkings fall off sharply.
2000
2000
Sinkings vs. Construction
1000
1000
Sinkings
Construction
o
o
+1000
+1000
Net Loss (or Gain) Monthly
THOUSANDS OF DEADWEIGHT TONS
Gain
0
O
THOUSANDS OF DEADWEIGHT TONS
Loss
-1000
-1000
o
O
The Cumulative Deficit
2000
2000
4000
4000
6000
6000
8000
8000
10,000
10,000
1940
1941
1942
1943
WAR PROGRESS
SINCE MID-1942, THE UNITED NATIONS HAVE SHOWN SUB- TION ALMOST KEPT PACE WITH LOSSES; SINCE THEN, THE
STANTIAL GAINS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE MERCHANT SHIP
FLEET HAS SHOWN A NET INCREASE EACH MONTH, WITH THE
LEDGER: NEW VESSELS ARE COMING OFF THE WAYS MORE
DECEMBER ADDITION AT A NEW HIGH. SINKINGS HAVE BEEN
RAPIDLY AND FEWER SHIPS ARE BEING LOST TO AXIS SUB-
IN AN IRREGULAR DOWNTREND SINCE THE DOUBLE PEAK OF
MARINES AND PLANES. IN JULY AND AUGUST, CONSTRUC-
MARCH AND JUNE.
JANUARY 29, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL
7
KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK
Latest
Preceding
Month
6 Months
Year
Week
Week
Ago
Ago
Ago
War program . Checks paid (millions of dollars)
1,123
1,446
1,176
1,068
472
War bond sales (millions of dollars)
279
344
216
183
250
Commodity prices (August 1939 = 100)
28 Basic commodities
174.0
173.6
172.7
166.4
164.7
Controlled
162.0
161.8
162.2
161.9
161.9
Uncontrolled
204.5
203.4
199.1
178.3
171.7
Nonferrous metal scrap
117.5
117.5
117.5
119.0
131.3
Petroleum carloadings (no. of tank cars)
Total
53,631
53,156
50,058
54,682
51,989
Movement into East
26,520
26,666
24,224
24,971
2,410
Exports (no. of freight cars unloaded for export Friday)
Atlantic Coast ports
1,212
1,156
926
1,379
1,301
Gulf Coast ports
328
370
343
460
464
Pacific Coast ports
848
926
805
572
181
Strikes affecting the war effort
Number in progress
11
13
9
18
n.a.
Man-days lost
114,913
82,995
12,756
34,801
n.a.
Unused steel capacity (% operations below capacity)
1.4
0.2
1.8
3.7
5.4
n.a. Not available
two countries. If, for instance, the
ammunition for American-type as well as
United States has the trained manpower
British-type guns, and armies would be
to turn out a certain type of tank or
supplied from the nearest source. How-
gun in large quantities, and the British
ever, standardization means changing
have not, then it is better to make the
established military practices as well
tank or gun in the United States.
as production lines, tools, dies, etc.
6. Condition of Plants. The newer
--a job that would involve so much dis-
and better plants require less mainten-
turbance that it cannot be readily un-
ance and repair, thus saving manpower,
dertaken. In this connection, the big
machine tools, and materials.
opportunity was missed at the beginning
7. Standardization. Finally, the
of the war.
whole problem of integration hinges in
large degree on greater standardization
UNIFIED COMMAND
of the weapons used by the allied armies.
These are not the only factors in-
At present, British, American, Fignting
volved in the integration of Anglo-
French, and Russian armies use many non-
American production, but they indicate
common items, thus hampering maximum
the complexity and extent of the prob-
efficiency. In the past, for example,
lem. In the long run, integration de-
British forces in Egypt using American-
pends on things beyond the authority of
make guns have run out of ammunition at
production planners--on such controver-
a critical stage of a campaign and have
sial issues as centralized shipping con-
had to wait for a supply from the United
trol, joint determination of military
States. If standardization were ef-
requirements, and a unified military
fected, the United Kingdom might produce
command.
8
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
Jeeps, Peeps, Etc.
and peeps which comprise most of the
light trucks. The peeps--often mis-
takenly lumped with jeeps--are the light
Army's program for military transport will
quarter-ton, 4-wheel-drive type that
reach maturity relatively early in the
are seen everywhere and perform a wide
war effort. Nearly half U.S. output in
miscellany of chores: They carry three
1942 went to our allies.
men--more in emergencies--and can ne-
LAST YEAR, U.S. output of military mo-
gotiate the most difficult terrain.
tor transport amounted to about $1,294,-
Lately they have taken to the water in
000,000, well over double the value of
large numbers: Production of amphibian
deliveries in the preceding year and a
types was numerically over one-fifth
half. This year, however, production
the total in December.
is scheduled torise only 19% (compared
with a scheduled increase of 126% in
JEEPS ARE HEAVIER
munitions as a whole), suggesting that
Slightly heavier are the half-ton
the motor transport program is approach-
jeeps, used mainly as command cars, but
ing maturity relatively early in the
also serviceable as carryalls, telephone
war effort. Meanwhile, other media for.
maintenance trucks, weapon carriers,
moving troops and supplies will be pushed
along much faster this year,as the fol-
MOTOR TRANSPORT
lowing table shows:
2000
2000
Output is scheduled to rise this year
% Increase
1943 over 1942
1500
1500
Motor transport
19%
Merchant vessels
151
Transport planes
416
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1000
1000
To move a modern army into battle,
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
it takes a wide range of motor vehicle
500
500
equipment: 40- and 20-ton tank trans-
porters--indispensable (as African ex-
0
0
perience has shown) for saving wear and
1942
1943
tear on tanks over long hauls, and for
5
5
salvaging wrecked tanks; heavy trucks
But drops as a % of total munitions.
of from about 6 to 10 tons, including
4
4
wreckers, cargo types, gasoline carri-
ers, etc.; medium trucks in sizes car-
rying anywhere from one and one-half to
five tons, including ammunition, dump,
% OF TOTAL MUNITIONS
3
3
cargo, tractor, and other types; light
2
2
% OF TOTAL MUNITIONS
trucks loading one-quarter to three-
quarters tons; and trailers, semitrail-
I
I
ers, ambulances, motorcycles, and var-
ious special vehicles.
o
0
Most publicized of motor transport
1942
1943
vehicles are the swashbuckling jeeps
WAR PROGRESS
JANUARY 29, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL
9
etc. Some of these are also amphibians.
Heavy trucks will be turned out in
War Progress Notes
larger proportion in 1943, and the sched-
ule calls for more trailers and semi-
RISING C. OF L.
trailers. On the other hand, relative-
DESPITE inflationary controls, the cost
ly fewer ambulances will be produced;
of living for the average U.S. citizen
jeep and motorcycle output will show
has risen 3.8% since the General Maximum
an absolute drop this year.
Price Regulation went into effect last
May, and about 19% since June, 1940,
AMPHIBIAN TRACTORS
Also significant in the motor trans-
BORROWED PRODUCTION
port picture are the Roebling amphibian
tractors procured for the Army by the
ARMY ORDNANCE SCHEDULES for January
Navy, and already in use overseas. Other
suggest that the high level of muni-
special vehicles include tractor cranes
tions output in December was obtained
and truck cranes, bomb-lifting trucks,
--at least in part-by borrowing from
track-laying trailers, armored ammuni-
this month's output (WP-Jan15'43pl).
tion trailers, and a number of experi-
For ordnance as a whole, the Jan-
mental snow-tractors (mostly mounted
ary forecast runs to only 81% of re-
on skis with caterpillar drive).
ported December output. Such a sharp
Finally, armored combat vehicles are
overall month-to-month drop is un-
used partially as motor transport. Most
heard of; indeed, it is customary for
armored half-track cars are designated
the forecast to rise above the pre-
as personnel carriers; scout cars and
yious month's production.
Bren gun carriers are often used for
Some comparisons follow:
similar purposes. Infantry troops, par-
ticularly Russian forces, frequently
Jan. Forecast
ride into battle astride tanks. And
As % of Dec.
self-propelled guns carry heavy loads
Item
Actual
of ammunition to the front.
Tanks & guns
77%
1
Ammunition
93
EXPORTS TO BRITAIN AND RUSSIA
AA guns & equipment
100
Motor transport is a case in which
AA ammunition
89
peacetime capacity went into almost im-
Combat vehicles
59
mediate wartime use after Pearl Harbor;
Artillery ammunition
84
1942 output was up to the year's objec-
Aircraft armament
94
tive--and the objective was sufficiently
Aircraft cannon ammunition 47
ample to permit the transfer of nearly
Small arms & inf. weapons 95
half of U.S. output to our allies, with
Small arms & inf. weapon
the British Empire and Russia sharing
ammunition
98
about evenly. The British took prin-
cipally tank transporters, heavy trucks,
The February forecast, apart from
and motorcycles, while the Russians
combat vehicles, calls for a rebound
were more interested in medium trucks
in overall ordnance output to the Dec-
and in peeps. By far the bulk of the
ember level. The combat vehicle gain
1942 transfers were through lend-lease
in December, at 67%, was outstanding.
rather than direct purchase.
10
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
THE SHRINKING DOLLAR,
OR THE RISE IN THE COST OF LIVING
Foods have led the H.C. of L.
Clothing and house furnishings:
upswing.
Next in the line of advance.
140
140
140
140
130
130
130
130
Clothing
Food
120
120
120
1935 1935-39 100
1935-39 100
1935 1935-39 100
House Furnishings
120
All Items
Miscelloneous
1935-39 100
110
110
no
110
Rent
Fuel, Electricity, and Ice
100
100
100
100
90
90
90
90
1941
1942
1941
1942
Here's the record for four major food items.
8.8
8.8
60
60
Bread
Eggs
55
55
8.7
8.7
CENTS PER LOAF
CENTS PER LOAF
CENTS PER DOZEN
50
50
45
45
CENTS PER DOZEN
8.6
8.6
40
40
8.5
8.5
35
35
1941
1942
1941
1942
46
46
15.5
15.5
Round Steak
Milk
44
44
15.0
15.0
CENTS PER POUND
42
42
CENTS PER POUND
CENTS PER QUART
CENTS PER QUART
14.5
14.5
40
40
38
38
14.0
14.0
1941
1942
1941
1942
WAR PROGRESS
JANUARY 29, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL 11
and as the chart (opposite page) makes
% Increase
clear, food prices led the ascent, going
Store Volume
Sales Stocks
up steadily for a year and a half. How-
Under $500,000
51%
14%
ever, before GMPR, clothing and other
$
500,000-$
999,000
49
36
items had shown sharp rises. Steep rises
1,000,000-
1,999,000
44
41
have been registered in many common foods
2,000,000-
2,999,000.
44
42
such as steak, eggs, etc., and milk
3,000,000-
4,999,000
52
44
shows a moderate advance. The price of
5,000,000-
9,999,000
44
50
bread, on the other hand, has held level
10,000,000- 19,999,000
35
69
under the restraint of a ceiling on
20,000,000 and over
28
55
flour.
Stores with an annual volume of $3,-
SMALL STORES SHORT
000,000 or less are located chiefly in
BETWEEN October, 1940, and October,
towns and moderately sized cities, where
1942, sales of department stores doing
consumer incomes have been boosted most
a yearly business of less than $500,-
sharply by war contracts; hence their
000 rose around 50%, while those doing
comparatively larger sales gains. On
an annual volume of $20,000,000 or more
the other hand, such merchandisers do
gained 28%. Butin inventories the size
not always have the cash resources nor
of gains was reversed: Stocks of small
engage in the large-scale buying which
units increased 14% during the period;
make possible the acquisition and ac-
of large outlets, 55%, as follows:
cumulation of substantial inventories.
SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS
Transportation - Prices - Cost of Living - Labor Disputes
Same
Same
Latest
Preceding
2 Months
6 Months
Year
Month
Month
Month
Month
Ago
Ago
Ago
1939
1937
TRANSPORTATION-COMMODITY AND
PASSENGER (1935-39=100)
196
204
201
176
149
118
102
Commodity
194
203
198
179
157
124
102
Passenger
205
208
208
169
126
98
101
WHOLESALE COMMODITY PRICES
ALL COMMODITIES (1926=100)
p101.0
100.3
100.0
98.6
93.6
79.2
81.7
Form products
113.8
110.5
109.0
104.4
94.7
67.6
72.8
Foods
104.3
103.5
103.4
99.3
90.5
71.9
79.8
Other than form products and foods
p95.9
95.8
95.5
95.6
93.7
83.9
83.6
COST OF LIVING-ALL ITEMS
120.4
119.8
119.0
116.4
110.5
99.6
103.0
Food
132.7
131.1
129.6
123.2
113.1
94.9
102.7
Other than food
114.1
114.1
113.6
112.9
109.2
102.0
103.2
LABOR DISPUTES
Number of strikes in progress
200
225
320
440
287
222
333
Workers involved (thousands)
61
65
66
117
59
37
n.a.
Mon-days idle (thousands)
200
175
325
550
476
384
674
December, except for transportation, November. "Unndjusted. n.s. Not available. P Preliminary.
12 CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
PRODUCTION PROGRESS
General Summary (Value of production, in millions of dollars)
Total
Total
Total
Total
Miscel.
Munitions &
Program
Munitions
Construction
Munitions
Construction
Valuation of
1942
1942
Valuation of
Actual
1st Quarter Avg.
2,703
2,242
1,556
666
410
1st Quarter Avg.
Actual
Production
2nd Quarter AVE.
4,137
3,458
2,340
1,118
573
2nd Quarter Avg.
Production
3rd Quarter AVE.
5,403
4,626
3,060
1,546
662
3rd Quarter ANg.
October
5,701
4,834
3,385
1,449
663
October
November
6,062
5,162
3,831
1,331
723
November
December
6,596
5,617
4,372
1,245
802
December
Valuation of
1943
1943
Valuation of
Scheduled
January
6,140
4,902
1,238
936
January
Scheduled
Production:
February
6,474
5,250
1,224
949
February
Production:
"Forecast"
March
6,688
5.468
1,220
941
March
"Forecast"
April
7,009
5,817
1,192
949
April
May
7,099
6,004
1,095
931
May
June
7,226
6,228
998
927
June
July
7,181
6,306
875
873
July
August
7,289
6,469
820
882
August
September
7,363
6,598
765
890
September
October
7,465
6.735
730
883
October
November
7,546
6,840
706
889
November
December
7.569
6,887
682
897
December
1942 Total
55,090
46,592
32,520
14,072
7,123
1942 Total
1942 Objective
51,309
37.309
14,000
8,057
1942 Objective
1943 Forecast
85,049
73.504
11,545
10,947
1943 Forecast
1943 Objective
81,749
72,204
9,545
10,893
1943 Objective
1943 Forecast as X of Obj.
104%
102%
1215
100%
1943 Forecast as % of оы-
Aircraft &
Ground
Naval and
Combat
Merchant
Aircraft
Munitions
Army
ArmyVessels
Vessels
Munitions
Munitionsib)
& Equip.
Valuation of
1942
1942
Valuation of
Actual
1st Quarter Avg.
1,146
453
263
340
90
1st Quarter Avg.
Actual
Production
2nd Quarter AVE.
1,767
648
Wals
521
154
2nd Quarter Avg.
Production
3rd Quarter AVE.
2,419
838
662
712
206
3rd Quarter Avg.
October
2,722
936
759
836
191
October
November
3,108
1,113
857
898
240
November
December
3.570
1,338
1,068
903
261
December
Valuation of
1943
1943
Valuation of
Scheduled
January
3.966
1,471
1,059
1,138
298
January
Scheduled
Production:
February
4,301
1,596
1,222
1,178
305
February
Production:
"Forecast"
March
4,527
1,734
1,260
1,208
305
March
"Forecast"
April
4,868
1,936
1,389
1,238
305
April
May
5,073
2,124
1,418
1,221
310
May
June
5,301
2,327
1,456
1,211
307
June
July
5,433
2,500
1,453
1,179
301
July
August
5,587
2,648
1,474
1,164
301
August
September
5,708
2,820
1,452
1,133
303
September
October
5,852
3,006
1,429
1,115
302
October
November
5,951
3,149
1,411
1,092
299
November
December
5,990
3,245
1,394
1,053
298
December
1942 Total
25,397
9,208
6,792
7.355
2,042
1942 Total
1942 Objective
29,252
10,759
8,598
2,066
1942 Objective
1943 Forecast
62,557
28,556
16,437
13,930
3,634
1943 Forecast
1943 Objective
61,311
28,634
14,975
1943 Objective
1943 Forecast as X of Obj.
102)
100)
110%
1943 Forecast as % of Obj.
*Based on latest schedules of procurement agencies. (a) Includes aircraft and aircraft munitions, ground army
ordnance and ground signal squipment; neval, army, and merchant vessels. Includes Misc. Munitions. (b) Ground
aray ordnance and ground signal equipment.
JANUARY 29, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL 13
PRODUCTION PROGRESS
General Summary - Munitions, Construction, Miscellaneous
Total War Program
Total Munitions and Construction
8000
8000
Forecast
6000
6000
Actual
1943 Objective
Actual
$817 Billion
4000
4000
Excess
2000
1943 Forecost
2000
$85.0 Billion
0
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
Total Munitions
Total Construction
7000
2000
6000
Forecast
1500
5000
Actual
1943 Objective
4000
$722 Billion
1943 Objective
Forecast
1000
$95 Billion
3000
Actual
Excess
Excess
2000
1943 Forecost
500
$73.5 Billion
1943 Forecast
1000
$115 Billion
0
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
Combat Munitions *
Miscellaneous Munitions
*
8000
1000
1943 Objective
$61.3 Billion
Forecost
800
6000
Excess
Actual
Forecast
1943 Objective
600
1943 Forecost
$109 Billion
4000
$62.6 Billion
400
1943 Forecost
Actual
$10.9 Billion
2000
200
# Includes aircroft and aircraft munitions, ground
army ordinance and ground signal equipment, novol,
*Automotive vehicles, clothing
army, and merchant ships and equipment
and personal equipment,
0
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
Bosed on lotest schedules of procurement agencies.
WAR PROGRESS
14
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
PRODUCTION PROGRESS
Aircraft - Ordnance (Value of production, in millions of dollars)
Combat
Aircraft
Aircraft
Artillery
Artillery &
Planes
Armament
Ammunition
TankCannon
& Equip.
Ammunition
Valuation of
1942
1942
Valuation of
Actual
1st Quarter Avg.
180
17
33
23
54
1st Quarter Avg.
Actual
Production
2nd Quarter Avg.
233
27
45
33
90
2nd Quarter Avg.
Production
3rd Quarter Avg.
294
29
57
52
110
3rd Quarter Avg.
October
313
33
66
66
107
October
November
368
37
76
97
126
November
December
425
40
101
120
106
December
Valuation of
1943
1943
Valuation of
Scheduled
January
455
37
119
151
167
January
Scheduled
Production:
February
515
37
125
166
183
February
Production:
"Forecast"
March
595
39
129
174
194
March
"Forecast"
April
690
47
128
169
220
April
May
792
49
130
160
230
May
June
900
50
130
163
230
June
July
1,011
50
124
166
236
July
August
1,103
48
120
170
240
August
September
1,207
48
119
163
237
September
October
1,315
49
119
146
236
October
November
1,393
48
116
145
233
November
December
1,439
48
115
142
229
December
1942 Total
3,227
328
648
606
1,102
1942 Total
1942 Objective
3,218
243
928
805
1,184
1942 Objective
1943 Forecast
11,415
550
1,474
1,915
2,635
1943 Forecast
1943 Objective
11,415
618
1,450
1,339
2,312
1943 Objective
1943 Forecast as % of Obj.
100%
89%
102%
143%
114%
1943 Forecast as % of Obj.
Antiaircraft
Antiaircraft
Small Arms
Small Arms
& Infantry
& Infantry
Combat
Guns &
Ammunition
Weapon
Vehicles
Equip.
Weapons
Ammunition
Valuation of
1942
1942
Valuation of
Actual
1st Quarter Avg.
18
12
16
42
88
1st Quarter Avg.
Actual
Production
2nd Quarter Avg.
39
21
28
81
124
2nd Quarter Avg.
Production
3rd Quarter AVE.
76
30
37
118
176
3rd Quarter Avg.
October
95
15
44
135
212
October
November
95
17
49
138
239
November
December
112
24
55
168
398
December
Valuation of
1943
1943
Valuation of
Scheduled
January
124
29
55
189
267
January
Scheduled
Production:
February
108
34
71
202
320
February
Production:
"Forecast"
March
113
36
76
208
333
March
"Forecast"
April
134
46
77
259
368
April
May
143
46
72
269
380
May
June
150
48
74
277
391
June
July
180
40
75
264
373
July
August
187
39
76
269
374
August
September
181
39
75
264
376
September
October
161
39
75
267
390
October
November
157
39
74
270
391
November
December
156
39
71
272
391
December
1942 Total
701
246
388
1,162
2,014
1942 Total
1942 Objective
978
241
590
1,528
2,332
1942 Objective
1943 Forecast
1,794
474
871
3,010
4,354
1943 Forecast
1943 Objective
1,824
470
668
3,225
3,612
1943 Objective
1943 Forecast as % of Obj.
98%
101%
130%
93%
120%
1943 Forecast as X of Obj.
*Based on latest schedules of procurement agencies.
JANUARY 29, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL 15
PRODUCTION PROGRESS
Selected Items - - Aircraft, Ground Army, Ships
Aircraft and Aircraft Munitions
Ground Army Munitions
4000
1500
1943 Objective
1943 Objective
$28.6 Billion
$15.0 Billion
Forecast
3000
Excess
1943 Forecost
1000
$28.6 Billion
1943 Forecast
2000
Forecast
$16.4 Billion:
500
1000
Actual
Actual
0
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
Merchant Vessels
Naval and Army Vessels and Equipment
350
1500
300
Forecast
250
Forecast
1000
200
Actual
150
Actual
500
100
50
0
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
Major Combat Vessels
Minor Combat Vessels
300
400
Forecast
Forecast
300
200
Actual
200
100
Actual
100
0
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
Bosed on latest schedules of procurement agencies.
WAR PROGRESS
16
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
PRODUCTION PROGRESS
Ships-Construction-Miscellaneous (Value put in place, in millions of dollars)
Battleships,
Sub-
Antisub-
Transports
Cruisers &
Destroyers
marines
marine
(Army,Navy)
Carriers
Vessels
Valuation of
1942
1942
Valuation of
Actual
1st Quarter Avg.
62
67
20
44
1
1st Quarter Avg.
Actual
Production
2nd Quarter Avg.
73
75
20
77
6
2nd Quarter Avg.
Production
3rd Quarter Avg.
71
76
23
97
10
3rd Quarter Avg.
October
84
82
23
130
12
October
November
77
88
22
127
16
November
December
76
13
25
124
16
December
Valuation of
1943
1943
Valuation of
Scheduled
January
120
106
44
237
21
January
Scheduled
Production:
February
120
104
45
270
24
February
Production:
"Forecast"
March
119
102
47
295
23
March
"Forecast"
April
116
100
47
323
23
April
May
114
99
48
331
24
May
June
112
98
48
337
23
June
July
109
91
50
345
24
July
August
109
83
50
348
25
August
September
110
75
49
347
25
September
October
112
73
49
343
26
October
November
113
72
48
328
26
November
December
113
71
48
302
26
December
1942 Total
856
897
260
1,034
96
1942 Total
1942 Objective
1942 Objective
1943 Forecast
1,367
1,074
573
3,806
290
1943 Forecast
1943 Objective
1943 Objective
1943 Forecast as % of Obj.
1943 Forecast as % of Obj.
Landing
Industrial
Aircraft
Clothing &
Automotive
Vessels
Facilities
Fields &
Personal
Vehicles
Bases
Equip.
& Equip.
Valuation of
1942
1942
Valuation of
Actual
1st Quarter Avg.
2
360
62
68
127
1st Quarter Avg.
Actual
Production
2nd Quarter Avg.
8
524
122
98
171
2nd Quarter Avg.
Production
3rd Quarter Avg.
85
662
233
117
196
3rd Quarter Avg.
October
145
684
214
109
174
October
November
142
649
180
107
179
November
December
129
635
152
105
207
December
Valuation of
1943
1943
Valuation of
Scheduled
January
115
558
190
186
223
January
Scheduled
Production:
February
92
554
185
180
February
Production:
211
"Forecast"
March
76
550
180
179
215
March
Forecast
April
71
480
188
170
214
April
May
60
435
188
157
209
May
June
45
390
180
144
206
June
July
28
309
151
143
207
July
August
18
283
131
143
208
August
September
9
258
112
144
206
September
October
3
238
108
142
202
October
November
3
228
104
139
200
November
December
2
217
100
137
197
December
1942 Total
700
6.606
1,793
1,171
2,044
1942 Total
1942 Objective
6,561
1,870
956
2,211
1942 Objective
1943 Forecast
522
4,500
1,817
1,864
2,498
1943 Forecast
1943 Objective
4,050
1,317
1,867
2,669
1943 Objective
1943 Forecast as % of Obj.
111%
138%
100%
94%
1943 Forecast as % of Obj.
*Based on latest schedules of procurement agencies.
JANUARY 8, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL 5
If mishandled, it can seriously impede
the war effort.
MERCHANT SHIP RECORD
People have been cold this winter.
Their transportation habits have been
DECEMBER DELIVERIES of 121 Maritime
disrupted. Food annoyances have multi-
Commission vessels (asagainst a fore-
plied: sugar and coffee already are ra-
cast of 135) brought the 1942 total
tioned; meat and butter cannot always
well over the Presidential goal of
be bought; and that's just a beginning.
8,000,000 tons. Included in the
In many localities, housing is a dis-
year's output were 542 Libertyships,
comfort-a shelter from the wind and
62 tankers, 62 standard cargo and
rain, rather than a home. Restaurant,
passenger-cargo ships (4 of them for
laundry, and other services will be cur-
the Army), 55 Liberty ships for the
tailed. Servants will be harder to get.
British, 10 ore carriers and coastal
Such civilian dissatisfaction is apt
freighters, and 15 tank landing ships
to lead to absenteeism: Why work, if
for the Navy. (The original Presi-
we can't use our money?
dential goal included onlyocean-going
vessels, but it was later modified
EQUALIZING DISCOMFORTS.
to comprise all Maritime Commission
To keep civilians as happy as they
vessels.)
can be under wartime inconveniences--to
Over one-third of the total 1942
spread the discomforts as evenly as pos-
tonnage came out of Kaiser-operated
sible--it is necessary to make sacri-
yards.
fices seem warranted and equitable. And
Little difficulty is expected in
it may even become necessary to re-ex-
doubling the 1942 record in 1943.
amine military requirements of civilian-
type and other products to determine
omy problem is the need for coordina-
whether supply margins in some cases
tion of the operations of the various
are notexcessive, thus imposing unnec-
war agencies--the War Production Board,
essary curtailments upon the civilian
War Manpower Commission, Office of the
population.
Petroleum Administrator, Office of Price
Administration, Department of Agricul-
POWER, FUEL AND TRANSPORT
ture, etc. This is Problem No. 5: to
But the civilian problem is more than
unify the policies of `independent agencies:
an administrative task in controlling
As an example, the Department of
prices and distributing goods.
It
is
Agriculture lays out a program for rais-
also a problem in propaganda: getting ing crops.
the right ideas across.
As part of the job of maintaining
COORDINATING WAR AGENCIES
the civilian economy, the railroads will
Will the ODT, measuring the farm de-
have to bekept in running order, like-
mands against all other demands for
wise power plants. That has a direct
transportation, supply the freight cars
bearing on production as well as on ci-
to move the crops at harvest time? Will
vilian comfort. Planes cannot roll off
the War Manpower Commission be able to
assembly lines if factories do not have
meet the seasonal labor demands of agri-
fuel and power and the railroads cannot
culture? Will the War Production Board
carry raw materials and supplies.
provide tin for canning? If not, will
Intertwined with the civilian-econ-
provision be made for moving highly
WAR PROGRESS
Confidential
(British Secret)
and THE - MAR 28 973 of (i)
91 BIR
DEs + Rubber + High Octane
Airplane Output Down Sharply
Scorecard on Merchant Shipping
Number 125
February 5,1943
CONFIDENTIAL
NUMBER 125
WAR PROGRESS
FEBRUARY 5, 1943
"Big Three": A Conflict in Components
High-octane and synthetic rubber plants and
fourths of the demand for these products.
destroyer escort vessels-all urgent-need
will come in the first half of the year.
the same things: valves, compressors,
And while only one-fourth of the de-
etc. And so do other programs.
stroyer escort program is slated for
completion in the initial six months,
THE AVIATION GASOLINE, destroyer escort,
DE (destroyer escort) requirements for
and synthetic rubber programs represent
some of these components will exceed or
around 4% of the more than $80,000,000,-
approximate either of the two plant ex-
000 which the United States plans to
pansions during the period. Examples:
spend in 1943 on munitions production
boilers, electric motors, steel valves,
and war construction.
and mechanical drive and auxiliary set
And 4% is about what these three pro-
turbines.
grams will take of our new supply of
What's more, preliminary investiga-
copper and steel plate. (In other raw
tions show that the total demand of our
materials, such as lumber and lead, the
economy this year for boilers, heat ex-
proportion is substantially lower.) But
changers, steel valves, and several
requirements for components-the prod-
other components common to the three
ucts between r&w material and finished
programs--compressedga cylinders, steel
munitions item or industrial end product
tubing, fans, blowers, diesel engines
--present a different story.
in larger sizes, etc.--exceeds the coun-
Based on present gas-escort-rubber
try'sexisting productive capacity (chart,
schedules, 1943 demand for eight common
page 3)
components will impose an indicated load
of from 6% to around 44% on the capaci-
GREEN LIGHT-TO WHICH?
ties of the industries producing them,
This raises strategic-economic ques-
as follows:
tions which the President was recently
called upon to decide: Should we pro-
% of Total
duce destroyer escortsas scheduled in-
Common Component
Capacity
stead of synthetic rubber as presently
Industrial pumps
6%
planned? Should we give the green light
Compressors
18
to 100-octane gasoline plants and re-
Boilers
19
tard either rubber plants or escort
Electric motors
23
vessels or both? Or should we hold back
Industrial instruments
31
an increasing number of other programs
*Turbines
36
for the sake of these three?
Heat exchangers
41
Already, construction of chemical
Steel valves
44
warfare plants, facilities to produce
new explosives, and various other war
#Mechanical drive & auxiliary set.
projects have been delayed between 30
and 90 days, largely because of competing
For aviation gasoline and synthetic
demands for special components.
rubber plant construction, around three-
Take the case of steel tubing, used
2
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
in boilers. A copper-mining project,
program alonewill reach a peak require-
a machine-gun factory, a powder plant,
ment of some 2,000 tons in March--equal
and an air depot were scheduled to re-
to almost 40% of the industry's existing
ceive their boilers last month. But a
capacity (5,100 tons a month)--then ta-
shortage of steel tubes has forced post-
per off sharply, as indicated:
ponement of delivery dates until March;
and without boilers they cannot operate.
Approx. Requirement
Or consider heat exchangers. These
as % of Estimated
require a certain type of steel forging
Month
Capacity
which is made by only one company--but
January
16.5%
that company is also producing tank-
February
21.6
turret rings on the same machinery. (If
March
39.8
this unit's tank-turret-ring business
April
15.9
were shifted to other manufacturers and
May
6.3
its machinery devoted to full-time forg-
June
1.5
ings production, the output of heat ex-
July
1.1
changers could be increased about 20%.)
Aug.-Dec
Nil
PEAK DEMANDS
Destroyer escort vessels alone, dur-
Aside from competition between the
ing the first six months, will require
gas-escort-rubber trinity on the one
enough electric motor capacity (around
hand, and programs suchas chemical war-
570,000 hp.) to supply the gas and rub-
fare, ordnance, and mining, on the other,
ber programs for the entire year and
the components question is intensified
still have a 20% margin to spare. One
by the impact of demand for special prod-
result is that Navy DC (direct current)
ucts at a particular time.
motors, needed to operate winches, pumps,
In steel valves, the synthetic-rubber
refrigeration systems, etc., are tight
and will remain so until March or April
of this year.
IN THIS ISSUE:
FIRST-HALF SQUEEZE
"BIG THREE: A CONFLICT IN COMPONENTS
1
Estimated capacity for turning out
KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK
4
industrial instruments (recording and
SHIPS THAT FIGHT OFF SUBS
5
controlling devices) in 1943 is slightly
above total requirements. But so great
SCORECARD ON MERCHANT SHIPPING
6
is the first-half demand from all pro-
PLANES BEHIND SCHEDULE
7
grams plus the "big three"--aviation
DISPERSING PLANE PLANTS
gasoline, destroyer escorts, and syn-
8
thetic rubber--for control valves, py-
MACHINE TOOL COMEBACK
10
rometer potentiometers (for measuring
WAR PROGRESS NOTES
11
high temperatures), and flow meters and
controllers (for measuring and control-
CASTING CONSUMER SHADOWS BEFORE
12
ling the quantity of fluids), that their
SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS
13
recent demand-supply relationships are
insecure.
PRODUCTION TION) PROGRESS (AIRCRAFT, CONSTRUC-
14-16
Alleviating measures are possible
In steel tubing, the dropping of three
FEBRUARY 5, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL. 3
COMPONENTS FOR DE'S, HIGH-OCTANE, RUBBER, ET AL.
Estimated total U.S. demand tops capacity in boilers, heat exchangers, and
steel valves, though not in compressors. However, figures are tentative.
Requirements os o % of Copacity
0
25
50
75
100
125
STEEL VALVES
CAPACITY
DEFICIT
DESTROYER ESCORTS
GENERAL REQUIREMENTS
AVIATION GASOLINE
SYNTHETIC
RUBBER
HEAT EXCHANGERS
BOILERS
COMPRESSORS
EXCESS
0
25
50
75
100
125
Requirements os o % of Capacity
WAR PROGRESS
WAR PROGRESS
4
CONFIDENTIAL
KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK
Latest
Preceding
Month
6 Months
Year
Week
Week
Ago
Ago
Ago
War program . Checks paid (millions of dollars)
1,531
1,123
1,418
1,074
507
War bond sales (millions of dollars)
378
279
297
205
266
Commodity prices (August 1939 = 100)
28 Basic commodities
174.4
174.0
172.9
166.5
165.0
Controlled
162.0
162.0
162.1
161.8
162.1
Uncontrolled
205.9
204.5
200.0
178.5
172.5
Nonferrous metal scrap
117.5
117.5
117.5
119.0
131.6
Petroleum carloadings (no. of tank cars)
Total
50,631
53,631
46,157
53,090
49,235
Movement into East
25,879
26,520
22,712
26,670
3,410
Exports (no. of freight cars unloaded for export Friday)
Atlantic Coast ports
1,306
1,212
963
1,468
1,750
Gulf Coast ports
330
328
271
483
534
Pacific Coast ports
769
848
723
887
307
Strikes affecting the war effort
Number in progress
6
11
7
14
n.a.
Man-days lost
44,617
114,913
10,470
30,467
n.a.
Unused steel capacity (x operations below capacity)
0.5
1.4
3.0
4.2
5.0
Not available
welding machines from the production of
leading manufacturer has already lost
"invasion line" (aspecialkindof tubing
1,000 of his 6,000 employees and has re-
usedby expeditionary forces for trans-
placed only half of these, generally
porting liquids and gases) would release
thunskilled workers, including women.)
2,800tons of tubing monthly for boilers,
Surplus components capacity may exist
thus makingup about half of the current
in the factories of our allies. Canada,
deficit in steel tubes for boilers.
as the result of a recent cutback in
certain phases of its arms program, is
MACHINE TOOL BOTTLENECK
believed to have some idle facilities
If the steel-valve industry could
for producing special components. And
obtain the 90 machine tools that were
this week WPB's Joint War Production
promised as of this week, monthly ca-
Committee of Canada and the United States
pacity could be increased fróm 5,100
submitted the following preliminary
tons to 6,000 tons-about 18%; and if
list of products which Canadian industry
anadditionalll0 machine tools requested
may be ina position to supply in certain
can be supplied, monthly capacity could
quantities to the United States:
be boosted to almost 6,700 tons, roughly
Boilers
30% above the current rate.
Diesel engines
Clamping downon the loss of skilled
Industrial pumps
manpower in the boiler industry would
Mechanical drive turbines
have maintained boiler production some
Valves
10% above existing levels; and that would
Valve fittings
have almost eliminated the indicated
In terms of our total production ef-
deficiency in supply this year.
(The
fort, however, the problem goes beyond
FEBRUARY 5, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL
5
the competitionfor components. It goes
than we need synthetic rubber, destroyer
back to the need for synchronizing the
escorts, and 100-octane gas? To answer
flow of raw, materials with overall com-
such questions-to evaluate requirements
ponents output; for example, because
and also supply--plans for scheduling
materials and machines are going to other
components are already under way in the
programs, production of heat exchangers
Office of Production Vice Chairman (WP-
and steel valves is being held up.
Jan8'43,p7). And the current gas-escort-
Is such delay according to overall
rubber tangle epitomizes the nature of
plan? Do we need tanks and planes more
the problem.
Ships That Fight Off Subs
To meet intensified U-boat warfare, the Navy
marine work, nor airplanes, blimps and
steps up its versatile antisubmarine pro-
armed merchantmen--also employed in the
gram. First destroyer escorts delivered
war against subs. But the classifica-
in January; hundreds more scheduled.
tion includes small carriers (many of
them converted cargo ships) known as
TODAY about 85% of the United Nations'
aircraft escort vessels; destroyer es-
ships sunk by the Axis are the victims
cort vessels (like destroyers, but slow-
of submarine torpedoes or gunfire, as
er and more lightly armed); large sub-
compared with 60% a year ago and 45%
chasers and Coast Guard cutters, and
in 1941, when enemy mines, aircraft,
gunboats, including the corvette type.
and surface raiders accounted for more
And then there are the smaller coastal
than half of the vessels sent to the
convoy vessels, mosquito craft (includ-
bottom (chart, right) And though sink-
ing motor torpedo boats and small sub-
ings have declined in recent months,
they are still at ahigh level compared
with a year.ago (chart, page 6).
CAUSES OF SINKINGS
THE NAVY ACTS
The submarine tokes an increasing toll
of United Nations merchant shipping.
This increasing intensity of under-
100
100
sea attack is reflected in the U.S.
All Other
Couses
Navy's production emphasis onships that
80
80
fight off subs. In 1940 and 1941, an-
Planes
tisubmarine-type craft comprised about
Surface
6% of the value of total naval vessel
Craft
60
60
deliveries, but in 1942 the percentage
increased to 22%, and in 1943 it is
PERCENT
Mines
PERCENT
scheduled to rise to 44%. Thus, if this
40
40
year's schedules are met, nearly half
our production (in dollar-value terms)
U-Boots
will be composed of craft to combat
20
20
enemy submarines.
These figures do not include the val-
0
0
ue of destroyers built or scheduled,
1940
1941
1942
which are frequently used in antisub-
WAR PROGRESS
6 CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
SCORECARD ON MERCHANT SHIPPING
Sinkings of United Nations vessels cut sharply in January, more than
offsetting drop in new construction. Result: cumulative loss is down.
2000
2000
Sinkings vs. Construction
Forecost
1000
1000
Sinkings
Construction
o
o
+ 1000
+ 1000
Net Loss (or Gain) - Monthly
THOUSANDS OF DEADWEIGHT TONS
Gain
o
o
THOUSANDS OF DEADWEIGHT TONS
Loss
-1000
1000
o
o
The Cumulative Deficit
2000
2000
4000
4000
6000
6000
8000
8000
10,000
10,000
1940
1941
1942
1943
WAR PROGRESS
ANOTHER ROUND IN THE BATTLE OF SHIPPING WENT TO THE
BER'S ALL-TIME HIGH, IT WAS GREATER THAN ANY MONTH
UNITED NATIONS IN JANUARY. TONNAGE LOST TO AXIS
EXCEPTING DECEMBER. THE NET GAIN IN TONNAGE, THERE-
SUBMARINES AND PLANES WAS THE LOWEST REPORTED IN ANY
FORE, CUT A SIZEABLE CHUNK OUT OF THE CUMULATIVE
MONTH SINCE NOVEMBER, 1941: AND THOUGH CONSTRUCT ION
DEFICIT, AS DELAYED REPORTS ON SINKINGS IN PAST MONTHS
OF MERCHANT SHIPS IN JANUARY FELL OFF FROM DECEM-
DID NOT CALL FOR SUBSTANTIAL REVISION OF THE RECORDS.
FEBRUARY 5,1943
CONFIDENTIAL
7
sers); mine layers and patrol craft.
The destroyer escort is the key item
ANTISUBMARINE VESSELS
in our expanding antisubmarine program.
We didn't get a single delivery in 1942;
From 0% in 1942, Destroyer Escorts
but in 1943 the value of destroyer es-
will rise to 46% of 1943 deliveries.
4000
4000
cort deliveries is scheduled to amount
to $1,478,880,000, or 46% of the entire
antisubmarine program. And deliveries
3000
3000
of aircraft escort vessels--which at
Other Antisub
$88,200,000 amounted to 14% of the an-
uled to reach $524,300, 000 this year,
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
Vessels
tisubmarine program in 1942-are sched-
2000
2000
Aircraft
Escorts
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
or 16% of the value of the total anti-
1000
1000
submarine program.
Destroyer
Escorts
However, getting this volume is not
going to be easy, though the program
0
o
has at last gotten under way with two
1942
1943
vessels delivered in January. It is
WAR PROGRESS
particularly competitive with the high
octane gasoline and synthetic rubber
programs (page 1) for valves, turbines,
Planes Behind Schedule
compressors, boilers, etc. In addition,
January acceptances are not only down sharp-
many other needed components are short.
ly from December, but also fall below the
HIGH PRIORITY
new 8-L plan. And February, with only
28 days, colls for 0 35% gain.
But the destroyer escort is high on
the Navy's urgency list. Though top
JANUARY ACCEPTANCES of airplanes were
rating goes to six aircraft carriers
down from December's record high total
now under construction, the completion
--as expected (WP-Jan22'43,p5)
of the first 83 destroyer escort ves-
At $451,400,000, value was off 12%.
sels, out of 294 scheduled for 1943,
Numerically, output was off 9%, just
comes next. Given third urgency rating
13 planes above the 5,000-a-month goal
are the standard destroyers; and imme-
the President set for December. The re-
diately afterward the balance of the
sults (preliminary), by group:
destroyer escort vessels is listed.
The problem of checking the subma-
January December % Change
rine, however, goes beyond straight-
(in millions)
line increases in naval ships. The
Total
$451.4
$513.5
-12.1%
arming of merchant ships; increased
Combat
366.4
425.1
-13.8
raids on German submarine bases; the
Bombers
274.6
324.5
-15.4
use of all the arts of the technician
Pursuits
91.8
100.6
- 8.7
to push antisubmarine technology ahead
Fighters,etc.
38.5
31.7
+21.5
of submarine technology; the possible
Trainers
46.5
56.7
-18.0
use of helicopters aboard ships; a uni-
fied Anglo-American antisubmarine com-
The sharp drop in dollar value was
mand-all are part of the broad basic
heavily weighted by a 15% decline in
problem of how to cut down sinkings.
output of bombers, especially the larger
WAR PROGRESS
8.
CONFIDENTIAL
types. For the first time in a year,
Dispersing Plane Plants
four-engined land-based bomber accept-
ances dropped under the rate of the pre-
U.S. aircraft production shifts to inland fac-
ceding month--off 11%. Trainers, though
tories from coastal areas. Safety, freer
exceeding schedule, were off sharply;
labor supply, and proximity to materials
that's because comparison was with an
and parts influence change.
exceptionally high December.
Particularly poor showings were made
AIRPLANE PRODUCTION has shifted inland
in January by two-engined flying boats
-according to geographical plan. Of
and Navy fighters. Much of the weakness
last year's total plane output of $3,-
in the latter category seems attribut-
863,000,000, more than 75% was assembled
able to the shift currently taking place
in plants located within 200 miles of
in the Grumman plant from the "Wildcat"
the Atlantic or Pacific. This year the
fighter to the "Wildcat II," a larger
dollar value of plane deliveries is
and more powerful plane. Transport
scheduled to rise to $13,206,000,000,
planes, especially the lighter types,
but the coastal areas will produce only
showed up well.
57% of the total, while the share of the
inland plants will grow to 43% from 24%
COMBAT PLANES LAG
in 1942 (chart, page 9).
In terms of the 8-L planning sched-
Pacific Coast plant schedules call
ule for the month, production was behind
for acceptances worth $4,137,000,000 in
plan by 16% in value and 12% in number.
1943, more than double the $1,841,000,-
Failure to meet forecast was evident
000 chalked upin 1942. But these plants
mainly in combat types, which as a group
this year will account for only 39% of
fell 19% short. Service combat planes
the total value of deliveries, compared
lagged only 1% behind forecast. Trainer
with 60% last year. Atlantic Coast
planes exceeded the forecast by 2%.
plants maintain their relative position
The January setback suggests that
--16% of the total in 1942, 18% in 1943.
plane manufacturers have their work cut
out for them this month: The 8-L sched-
BOMBER SHIFT PRONOUNCED
ule calls for planes valued at $609,-
Among the major plane groups, the
200,000, an increase of 35% over last
most pronounced shift inland occurs in
month and a gain of 19% over the Decem-
bomber production (chart, page 9).
ber record peak. And February offers
Only 6% of the value of bomber accept-
three fewer days than either January or
ances in 1942 was from inland plants,
December in which to do the job.
In
but in 1943 the interior will turn out
combat planes alone, the schedule amounts
39%. Meanwhile, Pacific Coast plants,
to $514,600,000, or more than the total
accounting for 78% of total bomber ac-
actual December output.
ceptances in 1942, drop to 44% of this
Furthermore, part of the February ef-
year's total. All the B-17 (Flying
fort will probably go into completing
Fortress) production will continue to
planes accepted with shortages last
be concentrated in Washington and Cal-
month, since the pool of accepted but un-
ifornia where established facilities
delivered planes was unusually high at
are available. But much of the expanded
the end of January-only 40 units below
output of the newer B-24s (Liberators)
the record level of 1,951 planes reached
and B-29s (four-engined long-range
at the close of 1942 (WP-Jan8'43,p10).
heavy bombers), as well as of the medi-
FEBRUARY 5, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL 9
PLANE PRODUCTION SHIFTS INLAND
From East West and from West East toward the U.S. center.
1942
1943
Acceptances
Schedule
Inland
6%
Attantic
Coast
16%
Inland
Pocific
39%
Coost
Pacific Coost
45%
78%
Atlantic
Bombers
Coost
16%
$2,358,217,000
$8,606,010,000
22%
27%
50%
44%
23%
34%:
Pursuits
(including navy fighter
and reconnaissance plones)
$842,914,000
$2,802,556,000
033
85%
46%
51%
77%
Service Combat
3%
$219,224,000
$1,141,874,000
22%
20%
4%;
71%
74%
Trainers
$443,036,000
$655,887,000
24%
TOTAL
43%
39%
60%
16%
18%
$3,863,401,000
$13,206,327,000
Note: All assembly plants within 200 miles of the Atlontic or the Pocific ore considered coostal.
WAR PROGRESS
6
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
perishable crops rapidly to market?
States ships copper or steel abroad, a
Obviously, such questions must be
decision--but not necessarily a planned
threshed out before they arise; they
one--is automatically made to utilize
must be determined almost as soon as the
British or Russian productive capacity
Department of Agriculture develops its
instead of this country's. Such exports
food program. Similarly, if production
say, in effect: It is better for the
is to be increased naparticular area,
war effort as a whole to let Russia
then provisions must be made for an
produce its own tanks or ammunition
adequate labor supply, housing and pub-
rather than to wait for this country to
lic utilities for workers, raw materi-
produce and ship the finished product.
als for plants in the area, transporta-
tion of materials to and from the area,
WHO'LL PRODUCE WHAT
etc. In short, policies of independ-
But integration of United Nations
ent agencies must be coordinated to see
resources ought to go beyond decisions
that the right things reach the right
(often political) to export raw ma-
place at the right time.
terials or finished products; it would
require centralized shipping controls
INTEGRATION AMONG ALLIES
and predetermined, all-inclusive plans
Finally, as Problem No. 6, there is
for the division of labor and resources
the coordination--the integration-of
on a nonnationalistic basis.
the war production efforts of the United
What kind of products should the
Nations as a whole. Already, such in-
United States and Great Britain produce
tegration takes place in some degree.
so as to get a maximum total of end prod-
The Combined Raw Materials Board, for
ucts? Should the combined resources be
example, recommends how the United States,
concentrated on more ships, ormore tanks,
Great Britain, and other United Nations
or more planes, and of what type? And
distribute their raw materials--rubber,
what country is better fitted to produce
tin, etc. (WP-Dec4'42,p9).
what? Thus, integration of internation-
Not o much, however, has been accom-
al resources extends into programming.
plished in directly tying in Anglo-
American production and distribution of
UNITED NATIONS STRATEGY
end products. It has been suggested
Indeed, carried to its logical con-
that the United States concentrate on
clusion, integration of United Nations
heavy bombers, which can be flown over-
resources would call for a unified stra-
seas, and cut down on production of
tegic plan of military action accompa-
fighter planes, and that the British
nied by assignments of munitions to
concentrate on fighters and cut down on
carry it out.
bombers. However, the difficulties of
Those, then, are the pressing prob-
stopping production lines, of deranging
lems for 1943--from materials to man-
programs, once schedules have been laid
power to international integration.
out have impeded execution on both sides
And, in contrast to 1942, when the task
of the Atlantic.
was one of organizing resources for war,
Some integration is semiautomatic.
1943's problems all relate to getting
For example, there are insufficient
the most out of resources that have
basic raw materials, such as copper or
approached the limit of capacity.
steel, to satisfy United Nations pro-
In short, 1943 is the year of inten-
duction capacity. And when the United
sification.
WAR PROGRESS
10
CONFIDENTIAL
um bombers and one-engined light bomb-
Machine Tool Comeback
ers, will come from inland points. The
same is true of one-engined pursuits and
Shipments in December swing back to on all-
of service combat planes.
time high and orders decline, thus biting
Aside from decreased danger of dam-
into the backlog. Deliveries in 1942 top-
age from enemy air raids, there are a
ped previous year by 70%.
number of other advantages to setting
up new plane assembly plants inland,
MACHINE TOOLS output staged a comeback
and one or a combination of several of
in December. After declining in Novem-
these hasusually dictated the location
ber, shipments increased 9% to an all-
of new plants.
time high of $132,000,000. At the same
1. Proximity to labor surplus areas
time, net firm orders (new orders minus
(now mainly in the southern and south
cancellations) fell from $76,000,000 to
central regions) was probably consid-
$56,000,000, and backlogs dropped to
ered when locations of the new Douglas
$867,000,000--the lowest level since
plants at Oklahoma City and Tulsa, the
March (chart, page 11). At the present
Martin plant at Omaha, and the Bell
rate of output, it will take 6.6 months
plant near Atlanta were decided upon.
to fill the backlog. Six months ago,
But now workers are getting scarce in
the existing unfilled orders would have
the three first-mentioned cities. There
taken 9.8 months to work off at the then
are serious labor shortages in the es-
current level of production.
tablished plane. production centers of
Deliveries of machine tools in 1942
California, Washington, and around Buf-
totaled $1,320,000,000, topping the pre-
falo, N. Y.
vious year's output by 70% and 1940 by
2. Proximity to necessary raw ma-
over 200%. This gigantic rise was in-
terials or cheap power. For example,
itiated back in 1940 under the spur of
the new Vultee plant atNashville, Tenn.,
foreign orders. In that year, about
is placed near aluminum fabricating
half the $400,000,000 production of
mills and TVA power.
lathes, grinders, boring, broaching,
3. Location of assembly plants near
drilling machines, etc. was exported,
the center of the country cuts down on
chiefly to British and French armament
hauling time for components, made mostly
manufacturers.
in the East and the Middle West and here-
tofore transported mostly to the Far
SHIPMENTS ABROAD
West. For example, all propeller plants
As the United States began to rearm,
and all but two engine plants (and those
the proportion of exports changed dras-
are small) are located east of the Mis-
tically. In 1941, shipments abroad com-
sissippi.
prised only one-fourth of total produc-
4. Test flying in "target areas"
tion. Now they are running at about
(coastal regions inwhich final assembly
12% of monthly deliveries, with Great
plants are located) is somewhat hampered
Britain and Russia each getting around
by restrictions imposed by the Inter-
one-third and Canada one-fifth of the
ceptor Command, which limits and con-
total exports.
trols air traffic in those areas. Plants
As a result, American industry has
in the Los Angeles district complain
greatly increased its inventory of ma-
that this has had the effect of slowing
chine tools. In December, 1939, there
deliveries.
were an estimated. 934,000 machine tools
FEBRUARY 5, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL
11
in place. In the last three years, about
backlog of orders for these items will
590,000 addi tional uni ts have been built;
not be filled until late this year. But
of these, 150,000 were exported, leaving
steps are being taken to speed up pro-
440,000 for domestic use. When allow-
duction, and meanwhile idle machines are
ance is made for tools that have worn
found--whenever possible--to fill the
out since 1939, current inventory stands
needs of munitions manufacturers.
at around 1,200,000 units, or almost
30% more than at the start of the war.
War Progress Notes
SOME CRITICAL TOOLS
HOURS AND EARNINGS
However, some types of tools-such
WORKERS in durable goods industries
as planers and surface broaching ma-
(primarily devoted. to war work) are now
chines, thread millers and thread grind-
working more hours per week (46) than
ers, precision boring machines, small
at any time during the past decade; work
gear shapers, cylindrical grinders (20
weeks for some industries average as
inches and over), 7-foot arm radials,
high as 53 hours. Nondurable goods
etc.--are still on the critical list.
workers are also working longer hours
And according to present schedules, the
to compensate for shifts of workers from
nonwar to war work, as the table shows:
Average % Change
MACHINE TOOL SUMMARY
Hours
from
Nov.'42
Year Ago
400
400
Shipments recover from November set-
All manufacturing
44.0
9.3%
back, run sharply ahead of new orders.
Durable goods
46.0
10.3
Nondurable goods
41.1
6.9
300
300
Machine tools
52.8
4.0
Locomotives
48.6
7.6
Net Firm Orders
Received
Shipbuilding
48.0
11.8
200
200
Aircraft & parts
46.6
5.1
Overtime pay and rising wage rates
100
KO
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
Shipments
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
account for record levels of earnings:
Average
% Change
o
o
Hourly
from
1942
Earnings
Year Ago
1500
1500
All manufacturing
89.94
15.1%
And for five months the backlog has
been declining.
Durable goods
100.3
16.0
Nondurable goods
76.3
11.1
1000
1000
Machine tools
100.7
23.5
Locomotives
119.6
25.8
Unfilled Firm
Shipbuilding
126.3
17.7
Orders:
500
500
Aircraft & parts
99.4
11.1
COLDER AND HUNGRIER
o
0
1942
A METEOROLOGICAL study of the U.S. sol-
WAR PROGRESS
dier's appetite reveals: (1) he eats
12 CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
CASTING CONSUMER SHADOWS BEFORE
Future purchases will depend on inventory replacements, hence new production.
150
150
Department store sales are still running right of all-time peak levels, but inventories have
been falling off precipitately.
125
125
1923 - 100 1923-25-100 Seasonally Adjusted
3 mos. moving ovg.
of soles
100
100
1923 = 1923-25=100 100 Seasonally, Adjusted
Stocks
75
75
50
50
1939
1940
1941
1942
150
150
Result: The stock-sales ratio is almost down to 1941 levels, indicating that this year's
department-store stockpiling has been all but wiped out.
125
125
Stocks to soles ratio
1923 25 100 1923-25=100 Seasonally Adjusted
Above Median
100
100
1923 25 100 1923-25-100 Seasonally Adjusted
Median 76.0
75
75
Below Median
50
50
1939
1940
1941
1942
WAR PROGRESS
FEBRUARY 5, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL... 13
6% more in cold than in moderate weather;
stocks on hand increased. But the ac-
(2) 12% less in hot weather; (3) 4% more
cumulation stage has now passed--the
on a dark day; and (4) 5% more on the
stock-sales ratio at the end of 1942 was
rifle range than in barracks.
down close to the 1939-42 median level
(chart, page 12). Since sales are still
FORECAST ON STORE SALES
right up to recent high levels and mer-
DEPARTMENT STORES have been steady buy-
chandise is becoming hard to replace,
ers of merchandise, anticipating (1)
inventories seem destined to decline.
higher prices, (2) shortages. As a re-
Americans will no longer be able to live
sult, even though sales rose, inventories
off past production; purchasers will be
rose faster-at least for a while--and
restricted to current output.
SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS
Labor Force - Employment-Federal Finance
Same
Same
Latest*
Preceding
2 Months
6 Months
Year
Month
Month
Month
Month
Ago
Ago
Ago
1939
1937
LABOR FORCE-TOTAL (millions)+
52.4
53.4
54.5
56.8
53.2
n.a.
n.a.
Employment
51.0
51.9
52.8
54.0
48.9
n.a.
n.a.
Mole
36.3
37.0
37.5
39.9
37.0
n.a.
n.a.
Female
14.7
14.9
15.3
14.1
11.9
n.a.
n.a.
Unemployment
1.4
1.5
1.7
2.8
4.3
n.a.
n.a.
NONAGRIC EMPLOYMENT-TOTAL(thous.
p38.956
38,533
38,478
36,665
36,088
31,109
29,675
Manufacturing Total
p15,669
15,434
15,313
14,302
13,566
10,694
9,880
Durable goods
p8,963
8,767
8,606
7,880
7,109
4,983
4,555
Nonduroble goods
p6.706
6,667
6,707
6,422
6,457
5,711
5,325
Government
₽5.784
5,723
5,672
5,037
4,584
4,058
3.957
Other
p17.503
17,376
17,493
17,326
17,938
16,357
15,838
FEDERAL CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT (thous)
p2,957
2,780
2,726
2,240
1,686
n.a.
n.a.
Wor
p2,038
r1,958
r1,886
1,370
779
War Department
pl.311
r1,c05
r1,222
814
430
Novy Department
P560
548
531
450
302
Other Wor ogencies
p167
145
133
106
47
Nonwar
p919
r822
r840
870
907
n.a.
n.a.
FEDERAL FINANCE (GENL FUND) t
Expenditures-Total (billion dollars)
6.4
6.5
6.4
5.2
2.6
.7
.5
6.0
5.8
6.1
4.5
2.1
-
-
War
Nonwar
.4
.7
.3
.7
.5
-7
5
Revenues -Total
.8
2.7
.6
.7
.6
is
-3
Income taxes
.3
2.0
.2
.2
.1
-
.1
in
.7
.4
Other
.5
in
.3
.2
Wor bond soles
1.2
1.0
.7
is
1.1
n.a.
n.a.
Net debt
103.3
97.6
93.0
73.8
57.1
39.8
34.5
*January except employment, December. figures in 1939 and 1937 columns represent 1940 and 1938 data
respectively. P Preliminary. r Revised. n.a. Not available
14 CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
PRODUCTION PROGRESS
Aircraft and Aircraft Munitions
Total Planes
Aircraft and Aircraft Munitions
Combat, Service, and Trainer
3500
2000
1943 Objective
1943 Objective
$286 Billion
$132 Billion
3000
1500
2500
1943 Forecost
1943 Forecast
$28.6 Billion
$13.2 Billion
2000
Forecost*
Forecost"
1000
1500
1000
Actual
500
Actual
Preliminary
500
o
o
1942
1943
1942
1943
Combat Planes
Service Planes
1500
200
1943 Objective
1943 Objective
$11.4 Billion
$1.1 Billion
VALUE DELIVERED DELIVERED-MILLIONS MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
150
1000
1943 Forecost
1943 Forecast
$114 Billion
Forecast'
$11 Billion
100
Forecost"
500
VALUE DELIVERED MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
Actual
50
Preliminary
Actual
Preliminary
0
o
1942
1943
1942
1943
Trainers
Gliders and Lighter-than-Air Craft
70
50
60
40
Preliminary
Forecost"
Forecost
50
Actual
1943 Objective
1943 Objective
$07 Billion
$0.5 Billion
40
30
30
1943 Forecost
Actual
20
1943 Forecost
$07 Billion
$0.5 Billion
20
10
10
o
o
1942
1943
1942
1943
. Bosed on December I procurement schedules
WAR PROGRESS
FEBRUARY 5, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL... 15
PRODUCTION PROGRESS
Aircraft and Aircraft Munitions (Continued)
Spare Engines, Propellers, Parts
Aircraft Ordnance - Total
1000
200
1943 Objective
$696 Billion
800
Forecost*
150
1943 Forecast
1943 Objective
600
$6.96 Billion
$2.07 Billion
Deficit
Forecost"
Actual
100
400
1943 Forecast
Actual
$2.02 Billion
50
200
o
o
1942
1943
1942
1943
Aircraft Armament
Aircraft Ammunition
60
150
VALUE DELIVERED MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
Forecast
45
Forecost
1943 Objective
1943 Objective
100
$0.62 Billion
$1.45 Billion
Excess
Actual
Deficit
30
Actual
1943 Forecost
1943 Forecost
50
VALUE DELIVERED MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
$055 Billion
$1.47 Billion
15
0
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
Other Aircroft and Airbase Equipment
Aircraft Signal Equipment
and Maintenance
175
400
150
Forecost"
Forecost*
300
125
1943 Objective
1943 Objective
$1.69 Billion
$4.22 Billion
100
Actual
Deficit
200
75
1943 Forecost
1943 Forecast
Actual
$4.22 Billion
50
$1.66 Billion
100
25
0
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
. Bosed on December I procurement schedules.
WAR PROGRESS
16 CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
PRODUCTION PROGRESS
War Construction
Total War Construction
Industrial Focilities
2000
700
Actual
600
1500
500
Actual
400
Forecost
1000
Forecost
300
200
500
100
o
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
Aircraft Fields and Bases
Troop Housing
250
400
VALUE PUT IN PLACE MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
200
300
Actual
Actual
150
Forecost
200
Forecast
100
VALUE PUT IN PLACE MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
100
50
o
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
Wor Housing
All Other Nonindustrial Construction
100
400
80
300
Actual
Actual
60
Forecast
200
40
Forecost
100
20
0
0
1942
1943
1942
1943
. Bosed on December I procurement schedules.
WAR PROGESS
The
WAR PROGRESS
Confidential
(British Secret)
- dill
you
OF - - SMY MAR 2973
Production Relapse in January
Number 126
February 12, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL
NUMBER 126
WAR PROGRESS
FEBRUARY 12, 1943
Year Starts with Production Slump
January munitions output, off 8% from De- ground armymunitions, 22%; combat vehi-
cember, falls for short of schedule and cles, 47%; army ammunition, 3%. Naval
breaks chain of monthly gains. Decline
and army ships showed some gain, ac-
is fairly general, though ships rise.
cording to preliminary value-in-place
calculations; merchant vessels were up
MUNITIONS PRODUCTION dropped in Janu-
3% but fell 15% below forecast.
ary-as expected (WP-Jan15'43,pl Not
Last month's decline traces back to
only was the value delivered or put in
the record level of munitions output in
place--$4,021,000,000 (preliminary)--
December, when many procurement agents
12% below the forecast, but it was down
cleaned up assembly lines in a Garrison
8% from December, bringing to an abrupt
year-end finish. In effect, some pro-
end the string of successive month-to-
duction was borrowed from the future,
month increases throughout 1942.
and January's munitions total relapsed
The last 13 months divide into four
to only 5% above November's level of
fairly distinct periods:
$3,831,000,000. Indeed, output fell
short of the November-December average
% Change
by $85,500,000.
Period
from Preceding Month
Possibly January should not be ex-
1942
Jan
23%
NOTE ON SCHEDULING
Feb
5
Post-Pearl
Mar
17
Harbor upsurge
JANUARY production results re-em-
Apr
18
phasize the erratic character of pro-
curement schedules. There seems to
May
13
be lack of consistency even in the
June
11
direction of deviations of forecasts
July
10
Falling rate
from actuals. Thus, in December, ar-
Aug
8
of gain
my ammunition fell 7% below schedule
Sept
5
but in January ran 5% ahead; con-
Oct
4
versely, in the case of combat vehi-
cles, December was 22% above schedule
Nov
13
Abrupt year-
and in January 10% below:
Dec
14
end rise
% Above or Below First-
of-Month Forecast
1943
Jan.
Dec.
Jan
-8
First-of-the
Aircraft, etc
-16
- 2
year relapse
Combat planes
-20
+ 2
Ground army mun
- 3
+ 7
Almost all major categories shared
Combat vehicles
-10
+22
in the setback. Aircraft and related
munitions dropped 6%; all airplanes,
Guns & equipment
- 1
+15
Army ammunition
+5
- 7
12%; combat planes, 14% (WP-Feb'43,p7);
2
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
amined as an isolated month; perhaps
if the Controlled Materials Plan is to
rather the performance should be aver-
work and if the nation is to get maximum
aged inwith December. That would yield
value out of its limited capacity to
an average monthly rate of output of
produce critical common components.
$4,201,000,000, or 9% above November,
As awhole, army ordnance came close
as compared with the recorded results
to schedule--down only 3%. But this
of first a 14% gain, then an 8% drop.
is to be taken at a discount, since
ordnance schedules for January were cut
CONSTRUCTION SLUMP SLIGHTER
about one-fifth between December 1 and
War construction did not drop quite
January 1. In combat vehicles, though
so sharply as munitions. Value put in
the forecast was reduced 13%, produc-
place, at $1,148,000,000, was down 6%
tion fell a full 10% short of the re-
from December. Even though construc-
duced schedule.
tion schedules are diminishing, January
was a comparatively bad month here too.
SECOND QUARTER HUMP
Value was off 5% from forecast. Total
In revamping schedules, the Army
munitions and construction amounted to
pushed production out of the first quar-
$5,169,000,000. This was 8% below De-
ter into the second half of the year,
cember and 11% below forecast (table,
as the charts on page 3 plainly show.
page 6).
And in cutting back first quarter sched-
ules so sharply, the Army automatical-
FORECAST vs. PERFORMANCE
ly calls for a stepup in production in
The disparity between the overall
the months of April, May, and June.
January performance and the forecast
The forecast gain is 44%. And this con-
once again draws attention to the need
trastswith the recent falling rate of
for bringing schedules into closer touch
gain in ordnance production, as follows:
with actual accomplishment--especially
% Gain from
Preceding Quarter
IN THIS ISSUE:
1942 (actual)
2nd quarter
59%
3rd quarter
39
YEAR STARTS WITH PRODUCTION SLUMP
1
4th quarter
24
NOTE ON SCHEDULING
1
1943 (scheduled)
PRODUCTION PROGRESS PRELIMINARY
6
1st quarter
10
THE U.S. CONSUMER'S LEANER DIET
7
2nd quarter
44
KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK
3rd quarter
4
10
4th quarter
(d) 2
SHOE RATIONALE
11
(d)-decline
A DAY OFF
12
Thus, on paper, there is a tremendous
CREATING MAN-HOURS
13
hump in the rate of gain in the second
SELECTED MONTHLY STATISTICS
14
quarter of this year, and then a flat-
tening out in the rate of gain and pro-
PRODUCTION TIONS) PROGRESS (GROUND ARMY MUNI-
15,16
duction generally. But, in the final
analysis, shortages may force a cutback
JANUARY 8, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL
7
Of Lenses, Valves, and Amplidynes
Plans now are being mode to anticipate a po-
.or industrial end products or both.
tential bottleneck-industrial components.
True, there has been some scheduling
Production must be timed to output of end
of components. Production and deliveries
products through scheduling.
of compressors, for example, have been
planned as far back as April; this was
WHEN A NATION increases its annual mu--
followed by heat exchangers, mica ca-
nitions output from less than $1,000,-
pacitors, turbo-blowers, Diesel engines,
000,000 to over $30,000,000,000 three
industrial power trucks, and several
years later--and then makes plans to
other items. By far the greater number
boost this to $72,000,000,000--produc-
of components, however, have not been
tion problems are inevitable. Thus
scheduled--overall coordination has been
A roller-bearing plant in the East
lacking. The resulti is that compressor
can't operate for lack of a stainless
deliveries have been held up because
steel ventilating fan that should have
pumps weren't available, Diesel engine
been installed last month.
production has been delayed because
A West Coast shipyard, hasn't yet
crankshafts weren't obtainable, and so
made delivery of 14 merchant ship hulls
forth.
which are waiting for propulsion ma-
chinery.
LIKELY SHORTAGES
A Midwestern pig-iron plant, with
A basic consideration in breaking
foundations and structural steelin place
the components bottleneck is determining
since last July, doesn't receive boilers
requirements and supply. In most cases,
until December--and installation will
existing data on productive capacity
delay production another three months.
and requirements are notas adequate as
they might be. However, investigations
TRACKS FOR TANKS
just begun for purposes of working up
Airplane output in certain plants is
possible scheduled production and de-
slowed because of a shortage of instru-
liveries of components, suggest certain
ments, accessories, and fittings.
shortages during 1943:
Production of tanks has been hindered
because there aren't enough cotter pins
Compressed gas cylinders
with which to attach tracks.
Diesel engines:
The fact is that we've striven hard
50-150 hp.
to fit the demand for steel, copper,
150-350 "
rubber, aluminum, and other critical raw
Over 350"
materials into the changed pattern of
Fans & blowers
supply; and we've devised schedules for
Heat exchangers
war construction and munitions produc-
Industrial power trucks
tion. Butwe haven't set up any adequate
Power boilers
control over "components"--bearings,
Tractors (track laying)
cylinders, Diesel engines, crankshafts,
lenses, meters, valves, pumps, electric
On the other hand, estimates of pres-
motors, generators, starters, gears, and
ent production capacity for building
the hundreds of products used in military
small Diesel engines (under 50 hp.),
FEBRUARY 12, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL. 3
in the last nine months of this year.
ment was 18% above the December output.
In the broad field of ordnance pro-
Small arms deliveries ran counter to
duction, guns once again showed up bet-
the general downtrend, going 3% over the
ter than ammunition. Self-propelled
previous month, largely because of heavy
guns, mounted on tank and half-track
output of the Thompson .45 caliber sub-
chassis, did well in general, except
machine gun, the .30 caliber Springfield
for multiple antiaircraft-gun motor car-
rifle, and the .30 caliber carbine.
riages, which fell 62% short of Janu-
ary's forecast. Wheeled artillery was
HIGH EXPLOSIVE SHELLS
6% over December.
Ammunition ran well below December
Antiaircraft guns as a group were 7%
output totals--except for small arms
below December, with only the 37 mm.
ammunition, which was 7% over the pre-
and a 90 mm. model reaching the December
vious month. A decline worth mention-
level. Antiaircraft fire control equip-
ing and watching was that of high ex-
FLUCTUATING FORECASTS
Dramatic change in army ordnance schedules shifts production out of first quar-
ter into second half of 1943.
40
40
+20
+20
1. This is what the pattern of 1943
2. Then,on January production was
ordnance production was to be, as
"planned out" of the first quarter in-
30
of December I, 1942:
30
20
20
% OF 1943 OUTPUT
%CHANGE FROM DECEMBER TO JANUARY SCHEDULE
+10
to the third and fourth quarters:
+10
% OF 1943 OUTPUT
0
0
10
10
-10
-10
CHANGE FROM DECEMBER TO JANUARY SCHEDULE
o
0
-20
-20
1st.Qtr.
2nd Qtr.
3rdQtr.
4th Qtr.
IstQtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr.
1943
1943
40
40
+60
+60
3. .So,the new pattern for 1943 ord-
4. Result: quarterly production rises
nance production came to look like
+50
and falls as follows:
+50
3Q
this:
30
+40
+40
% OF 1943 OUTPUT
20
20
% OF 1943 OUTPUT
% CHANGE IN OUTPUT
+30
.30
+20
+20
% CHANGE IN OUTPUT
10
+10
10
+10
0
/
o
o
o
-10
-10
1stQtr.
2nd
Qtc
3rd Qtr.
4rd
Qtr.
4thQ 42 1st Qtc to 2ndQtcto 3rd Qtr.to
1943
toistQ'43 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr.
WAR PROGRESS
4 CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
SLUMP REVERSES RISE IN MUNITIONS OUTPUT -
January, 8% below December, brings varied drops in major groups, led by
Total Munitions
Total Munitions
5000
5000
+60
+60
Value delivered or pul in ploce.
% Change from month to month.
4000
4000
Preliminary
+40
+40
3000
3000
+20
+20
2000
2000
X
X
0
0
1000
1000
0
0
-20
-20
J F M A M J J A S o N D J
J F M A M J J. A S 0 N D J
1942
1942
Combat Vehicles
Combat Vehicles
400
400
+60
+60
Volue delivered.
% Change from month to month
300
300
+40
+40
200
Preliminary
200
+20
+20
VALUE DELIVERED OR PUT IN PLACE-MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
100
100
VALUE DELIVERED OR PUT IN PLACE-MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
0
x 0,
X X
o
% CHANGE FROM PRECEDING MONTH
-47
0
0
-20
-20
J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J
J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J
1942
1942
Ground Army Weapons
Ground Army Weapons
300
300
+60
+60
% CHANGE FROM PRECEDING MONTH
Value delivered.
% Change from month to month.
Prelminory
+40
+40
200
200
+20
#20
100
100
X
o
0
o
0
-20
-20
J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J
J F M A M J J A S o N D J
1942
1942
Ground Army Ammunition
Ground Army Ammunition
300
/
300
+60
+60
Value delivered
Pretiminary
% Change from month to month.
+40
+40
200
200
+20
+20
100
100
0
X
5254
0
0
o
-20
-20
J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J
J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J
1942
1942
Artillery and equipment; small arms and infortry weopons, antiaircraft guns and equipment.
WAR PROGRESS
FEBRUARY 12, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL 5
-AND 1943 GETS OFF TO EXPECTED POOR START
combat vehicles, off 47%; planes off 12%. Merchant vessels up 3%.
Aircraft and Aircraft Munitions
Aircraft and Aircraft Munitions
1500
1500
+60
+60
Volue delivered
% Change from month to month.
Preliminary
+40
+40
1000
1000
+20
+20
500
500
X
o
o
*
0
o
-20
-20
J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J
J F M A M J J A S o N D J
1942
1942
Total Airplanes
Total Airplanes
600
600
+60
+60
Value delivered
% Change from month to month.
Preliminary
+40
+40
400
400
+2C
+20
VALUE DELIVERED OR PUT IN PLACE-MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
200
200
VALUE DELIVERED OR PUT IN PLACE-MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
o
X
R
E
o
0
o
% CHANGE FROM PRECEDING MONTH
R
20
-20
J F M A M J J A S o N D J
J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J
1942
1942
Naval and Army Vessels and Equip.
Naval and Army Vessels and Equip.
1000
1000
+60
+60
Preliminary
% CHANGE FROM PRECEDING MONTH
Volue put in place.
% Change from month to month.
800
800
+40
+40
600
600
+20
+20
400
400
0
0
200
200
0
o
-20
-20
J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J
J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J
1942
1942
Merchant Ships
Merchant Ships
300
300
+60
+60
Volue put in place.
Preliminary
% Change from month to month.
+40
+40
200
200
+20
+20
100
100
o
X
o
X
0
0
-20
-20
J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J
J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J
1942
1942
WAR PROGRESS
6
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
plosive shells, especially the 75 mm.
completion of the first two destroyer
gun and 105 mm. howitzer shells, the two
escorts (WP-Feb5'43,p5).
dominant items in HE shell production.
The mounting backlog of undelivered
Preliminary figures for general naval
"sweepers," "chasers," and other minor
ship deliveries--not value put in place
combat vessels keeps the navy delivery
--ran 11% behind December and 26% below
forecasts high, relative to output; for
schedule, with subchasers and minesweep-
example:
ers lagging farthest, largely because
of component shortage--particularly
Scheduled
Delivered
winches and gyroscope-compass equipment.
Small subchasers..
28
17
Subchasers, 173 ft.
7
2
CARRIER COMPLETED
Motor minesweepers. 28
8
Tank-landing ships, delivered about
the same volume as in December, fell 40%
The significant part of the drop in
behind forecast. Large infantry land-
plane acceptances is accounted for by
ing craft, however, surpassed both the
heavy bombers (WP-Feb5'43,p7), which
January forecast and December deliveries.
fell 11% behind both the January fore-
Important landmark in January was
cast and December's actual output. No
the completion of the first 10,000-ton
patrol bombers of the "Mariner" type
plane carrier (small combat carrier
were received in January, though several
type) on a hull originally designed for
dozen were delivered in December. Lack
a light cruiser.
of struts, turrets, and other parts is
Another important "first" was the
blamed.
PRODUCTION PROGRESS Preliminary
Value delivered or put in place millions of dollars.
January
December
%
% Change
January
Jon. Prelim.
Preliminory
Actual
Change
Forecast"
vs. Forecost
Total munitions and construction
Total munitions
$5,169
$5.598
- 85
$5,786
-11%
Combat munitions (a)
4,021
4,382
- 8
4,575
-12
3,276
3.370
8
3,800
-14
Aircraft and related munitions
Ground Army munitions (b)
1,259
1,338
-6
1,506
-16
Navol and Army vessels and equipment
836
1,068
-22
863
-3
Merchant vessels
911
903
+1
1,116
-18
270
261
+3
316
-15
Combat plones
Service combat planes
366
425
-14
455
-20
Aircraft ordnance
39
32
+22
39
-
125
141
-11
134
7
Combot vehicles
Guns and equipment (c)
209
398
-47
233
-10
Army ammunition
282
313
-10
286
- 1
Ground signal equipment
289
298
-3
275
+5
56
59
5
69
-19
"As of January 1. (a) Fighting Items: Aircraft and aircraft munitions: ground army ordnance and ground #15-
nal equipment: naval, army, and merchant vessels and equipment. (b) Ground army ordnance and ground signal
equipment. (c) Tank cannon: artillery and equipment: antiaircraft guns and equipment: small arms and In-
fantry weanons.
FEBRUARY 12, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL
7
Typical of the fall-off in the med-
ever, were way back-70% under schedule
ium bomber field was the 37% lag of
and 65% under December. All four plants
Martin "Marauders" behind schedule.
building these fighters were behind
One-engined light bombers continued
schedule.
their 1942 lag-some 30% behind schedule.
After months behind schedule consumed
in eradicating engineering "bugs," the
NAVY FIGHTERS TRAIL
A-36 (dive-bomber version of the "Mus-
One-engined pursuits did better,
tang") came through with a bang, beat-
beating schedule by 3% and December ac-
ing schedule by 64% and December output
ceptances by 4%. Navy fighters, how- by 78%.
The U.S. Consumer's Leaner Diet
Military and export requirements, smaller crop
Civilian Consumption
yields will force some changes in civilian
1943 1941-42 Change
fare in 1943. There 11 be less meat and
(per capita pounds)
canned fruits, more poultry.
Citrus fruits
65.5
59.7
+10%
Canned citrus
IN THE LAST TWO YEARS, farm production
fruits & juices
3.4
5.0
-32
was at an all-time high. And despite
Leafy vegetables 71.8
84.8
-15
increasing exports and military require-
Canned fruits
4.0
15.8
-75
ments, tne average consumer, on the whole,
Dried fruits
4.9
6.7
-27
ate better than he had been accustomed
Fats & oils
36.7
34.0
+8
to. In 1941-42, consumption of meat,
Coffee
9.9
14.6
-32
poultry, fish, dairy products, citrus
Tea
0.3
0.6
-50
fruits, fats and oils, etc. exceeded that
Cocoa
3.1
4.4
-30
of the previous five years. Only fresh
fruit and sugar consumption was off.
Civilians will get less meat and fish
than in the last two years but more poul-
FEW FOODS INCREASE
try; fewer fresh vegetables, eggs, and
However, a leaner diet is ahead. Only
dairy products (especially cheese, but-
a few foods will be more abundant than
ter, and ice cream) but more fresh cit-
in the past two years. On the basis of
rus fruits (chart, page 9). The supply
current production goals and estimates
of canned vegetables and canned fruits
of military and export requirements,
and fruit juices as well as dried fruits
changes in civilian consumption this
will decrease, since the armed forces
year shape up as follows:
and lend-lease will take froma half to
a third of these nonperishable items.
Civilian Consumption
On the other hand, fats and oils will
1943 1941-42 Change
be just as abundant as in recent years.
(per capita pounds)
Imported beverages will be drastically
Fluid milk &
curtailed: tea, by half of last year's
cream
394.0
368.6
+ 7%
civilian supply; coffee and cocoa, by
Meats
134.7
141.2
- 5
& third.
Poultry
33.3
25.0
+32
Smaller expected crop yields par-
Potatoes
143.2
146.0
- 2
tially explain the projected decline in`
8 CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
WHAT WILL HAPPENTO THE U.S. FOOD SUPPLY IN '43
Armed forces to take 17% of beef, 12% of butter. Civilians get 90% of chicken.
Meats, Chicken, Fish
Dairy Products
100
100
Comy MY
Corry Over
80
Exports
80
% DISTRIBUTION OF SUPPLY
Exports
60
Military
60
40
40
Militory
% DISTRIBUTION OF SUPPLY
Civilion
20
20
Civilian
0
G
Pork
Beef
Chicken
Fish
Cheese
Eggs
Milk
Ice Cream
14,300
10,055
4,181
1,087
1,200
7,578
42,500
1,500
Million Pounds
Million Pounds
Vegetables
Fruits
100
100
Corry Over
Corry Over
80
80
% DISTRIBUTION OF SUPPLY
Military
Exports
60
60
Militory
40
40
Civilian
% DISTRIBUTION OF SUPPLY
Civitions
20
20
0
0
Dry Beans
Potatoes
Tomotoes
Dry Peos
Fresh Apples
Dried Fruits
Citrus Fruits
Melons
2,313
25,218
2,897
753
5,679
1,230
9,532
3,184
Million Pounds
Million Pounds
Coffee, Tea, Sugar
Fats & Oils
100
100
Carry Over
Cony Over
80
80
% DISTRIBUTION OF SUPPLY
Exports
Exports
Militory
60
Military
60
40
40
% DISTRIBUTION OF SUPPLY
Civilian
Civilion
20
20
0
0
Sugar
Cocoo
Coffee
Tea
Fots a Oils
Lord
Butter
15,700
605
1,950
85
Million Pounds
9,494
3,460
2,319
Million Pounds
WAR PROGRESS
FEBRUARY 12, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL 9
WHAT THE CIVILIAN MENU WILL LOOK LIKE
The ultimate consumer will eat 33% more chicken, drink 33% less coffee in 1943.
50
50
Meats, Chicken, Fish.
Dairy Products.
% CHANGE 1943 VERSUS 1941-42 AVERAGE
25
25
0
AMMAN
o
25
-25
% CHANGE 1943 VERSUS 1941-42 AVERAGE
50
-50
Pork
Beef
Chicken
Fish
Cheese
Eggs
Milk
Ice Cream
50
50
Vegetables.
Fruits.
% CHANGE 1943 VERSUS 1941-42 AVERAGE
25
25
0
o
-25
-25
% CHANGE 1943 VERSUS 1941-42 AVERAGE
-50
-50
Dry Beons
Pototoes
Tomatoes
Dry Peos
Fresh Apples
Dried Fruits
Citrus Fruits
Melons
50
50
Coffee, Tea, Sugar.
Fats and Oils.
% CHANGE 1943 VERSUS 1941-42 AVERAGE
25
25
o
0
-25
-25
% CHANGE 1943 VERSUS 1941-42 AVERAGE
-50
-50
Sugar
Cocoo
Coffee
Tea
Fats and Oils
Lord
Butter
WAR PROGRESS
10
CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
the civilian food supply. It is simply
tion is expected to increase. In 1943
not in the of averages for last year's
some 30,500,000 cattle and calves are
bumper harvests to recur. Although 1943
expected to be sent to slaughter, com-
goals for acreage planted to some major
pared with 28,000,000 in 1942; and 100,-
crops equal or exceed 1942, smaller
000,000 hogs will be marketed, compared
(though normal) yields are forecast:
with 80,000,000 in 1942. Output of
dressed chicken is scheduled to increase
1943 Agricultural Goals
from 3,100,000,000 pounds to 4,000,-
As % of '42
As % of '42
000,000 pounds; turkey from 485,000,000
Acreage
Production
pounds to 560,000,000 pounds; and eggs
Wheat
100%
66%
from 4,400,000,000 dozen to 4,800,000,-
Corn
104
70
000 dozen. (This record production does
Soybeans
112
103
not mean that farmers will reduce the
Rye
70
66
size of their flocks and herds. In fact,
Commercial
it is estimated that by the end of the
truck crops
99
--
year cattle on farms will increase by
Fruits
100
99
2%; pigs, 15%; laying hens, 9%. Nor will
Oats
87
84
seed crops and carry-overs be reduced.)
Peanuts
149
148
Military and export needs will cut
Potatoes
117
111
more sharply into food supplies than in
Dry beans
155
130
1941 and 1942 (chart, page 8). With
the expansion of our armed forces, an
Commercial truck crops will decline
increasing proportion of the agricul-
slightly, but meat and poultry produc-
tural output will be drained off to army
KEY STATISTICS OF THE WEEK
Latest
Preceding
Month
6 Months
Year
Week
Week
Ago
Ago
Ago
War program - Checks paid (millions of dollars)
1,417
1,531
1,414
1,039
549
War bond sales (millions of dollars)
182
378
219
194
255
Commodity prices (August 1939 = 100)
28 Basic commodities
174.7
174.4
173.8
167.0
165.1
Controlled
162.1
162.1
162.0
161.6
162.2
Uncontrolled
206.7
205.9
203.7
181.2
172.7
Nonferrous metal scrap
117.5
117.5
117.5
119.0
131.6
Petroleum carloadings (no. of tank cars)
Total
52,721
50,631
49,045
53,822
48,783
Movement into East
25,812
25.879
25,129
26,145
5.125
Exports (no. of freight cars unloaded for export Friday)
Atlantic Coast ports
1,223
1,306
1,262
1,627
1,605
Gulf Coast ports
335
330
363
468
445
Pacific Coast ports
888
769
1,027
905
386
Strikes affecting the war effort
Number in progress
n.a.
6
6
14
n.a.
Man-days lost
n.a.
44,617
15,973
34,649
n.a.
Unused steel capacity (% operations below capacity)
0.7
0.5
0.7
3.5
4.5
n.a. Not available
FEBRUARY 12, 1943
CONFIDENTIAL. 11
camps and naval establishments both here
and abroad. Also, reserves must be built
PINCH IN CIVILIAN SHOES
up to feed countries which the United
Output this year will be cut back to
Nations may occupy in coming offensives.
deep depression levels.
Altogether, more than a fifth of the
600
600
coming year's food supplies willnot be
Military Shoes
available to the domestic civilian pop-
ulation. Lend-lease will take about
11%; the armed forces an additional 11%.
items will be drawn off--ranging from
MILLIONS OF PAIRS OF BOOTS AND SHOES
400
400
Varying proportions of the different
Civilian Shoe
Production
6% for fresh fruits to 45% for canned
200
vegetables and 50% for canned fruits
200
MILLIONS OF PAIRS OF BOOTS AND SHOES
(chart, page 8).
MAY NOT MEET GOALS
0
o
These estimates are based on current
1929
1931
1933
1935
1937
1939
1941
1943
forecasts--before the planting of spring
WAR PROGRESS
crops. Conceivably, 1943 agricultural
goals may not be met, unlike 1942 when
civilian per year--will impose no great
production exceeded forecasts. This
hardships, even though civilian produc-
year, problems of manpower, shortages
tion this year will be cut back to the
of fertilizer, farm machinery, and trans-
lowest level since 1932. The average
portation equipment will make it harder
annual consumption of shoes in the years
for farmers to get maximum production.
1937-41 was only 3.2 pairs per capita.
As a rule, women and girls have used
Shoe Rationale
more pairs per year than this, while
men and boys have used fewer pairs.
Army and lend-lease now get one pair in ten
Since the ritioning order permits the
and use about one-third of sole leather
transfer of coupons within a family,
supply. Ration is close to average-but
provided its members live under the
three pairs per person not assured in '43.
same roof, women and girls can make up
the deficit by getting coupons from hus-
HERE ARE THE FACTS leading up to this
bands, brothers, or sons, etc.
week's shoe rationing order:
When the United States entered the
HOPEFUL ON THREE PAIRS
war, only one out of every 25 pairs of
However, three pairs of shoes per
shoes made was for the armed forces or
year are by no means assured. The ra-
lend-lease. Today, the proportion is
tioning order promises one pair per
one in 10 and it's still rising (chart,
person between now and June 15. That's
right). This tenth uses about one-
at an annual rate of three pairs a year,
thira of the sole leather. Half of the
and it is hoped to meet that rate. But
country's shoe leather is tanned from
whether actual production warrants that
imported hides and shipping space is
ration depends on (1) imports of hides;
at a premium.
(2) supplies of reclaimed rubber; (3)
The shoe rationing order-if it ul-
how much the armed forces and lend-
timately yields three pairs of shoes per lease
require.
12 CONFIDENTIAL
WAR PROGRESS
A Day Off
SIGNS OF ABSENTEEISM
Data from selected war plants,
Absenteeism is indigenous to wartime working
though not all inclusive, show
conditions. Long hours, high wages, influx
what you'd expect.
of unseasoned help,etc. are factors con-
10
10
A.W.O.L. drops on payday; jumps on
ducive to taking time off.
Monday after payday.
8
8
DURING the last nine months of 1942,
commercial shipyards in the United States
% OF WORKERS ABSENT
6
6
% OF WORKERS ABSENT
lost ,000,000,000man-hours--enough to
build 136 tankers--through absenteeism.
That's symptomatic--wartime condi-
4
4
tions are bound to exert special pres-
sures on AWOLism. Labor is ina seller's
2
2
market and the boss doesn't have the
same freedom in hiring and firing as
O
0
formerly. So workers are more inclined
Pay
Average
Monday
Monday
to stay away from the job, not only be-
Day
Day
(following payday)
cause of legitimate illness and serious
10
10
Workers are obsent most from the
fatigue but for voluntary reasons: the
"graveyard" shift.
urge to go shopping, or even the "morn-
8
8
ing-after" feeling.
Moreover, this is a high-wage period,
% OF WORKERS ABSENT
% OF WORKERS ABSENT
and high hourly wages sometimes work
6
6
with reverse English on the financial
incentive: When workers can earn enough
4
4
in five days to get along comfortably,
they sometimes prefer leisure to an extra
2
2
day's' pay.
BLUE MONDAY
0
0
8:00 AM.
400 P.M.
12:00 M.
Certain facts about absenteeism are
to 4:00 P.M.
to 12:00 M.
to 8:00 AM.
readily understandable: (1) It increases
10
10
The longer the work week the more
with the length of the work week; (2)
the obsenteeism.
it is high after payday and particularly
8
8
low on payday, when they come to collect.
It is most prevalent on the night shifts;
% OF WORKERS ABSENT
6
6
4
% OF WORKERS ABSENT
(3) and Monday leads all other days in
absenteeism (chart, left).
Booming employment accelerates ab-
4
senteeism. Shipyard facts tend to il-
lustrate the point. In yards building
2
2
naval ships, where employment has not
risen outstandingly, absenteeism has
0
0
held fairly steady. But in yards in
5 days
6 days
(plus)
(plus)
which employment has risen greatest,
WAR PROGRESS
absenteeism has increased about 35%