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DIARY Book 97 National Academy of Political Science Speech Delivered November 10, 1937 Part III Regraded Unclassified Book Page Speeches by HMJr Before National Academy of Political Science, 11/10/37 Complete set of drafts as provided by Seltzer (Numbers 12 through 17) - See also Book XCVI XCVII 1 Upham draft 164 Statistical tables showing actual expenditures 1926 through 1937 184,207,209, 225,232 Statistical tables showing proprietary interest of United States in Government corporations and credit agencies as of June 30, 1929, to June 30, 1937 188 Social Security funds and the budget: Gaston memorandum 191 Bureau of Budget memoranda on Resettlement Administration and Public Works Administration (major construction allocations; revolving fund) 193,214 Bureau of Budget memorandum on Export-Import Bank 203 Reconstruction Finance Corporation commitments 210,212 Public highway expenditures 230 HMJr thanks Viner on day speech goes to mimeographer - 11/8/37 - See Book XCIV, page 158 Speech discussed at 9:30 group meeting - 11/9/37 - See Book XCIV, page 162 Reading copy 239 Mimeographed copy 270 Regraded Unclassified 1 Address of the Secretary of the Treasury, to be Delivered before the Academy of Political Science, at the Hotel Astor, New York City, Wednesday Evening, November 10, 1937 I am glad to accept the invitation of the Academy of Political Science to discuss before its members assembled here tonight the subject of Federal spending and its relation to the balancing of the Federal budget. Nineteen years ago tomorrow, we signed the Armistice ending the World War. That war was unbelievably costly in human values, and it was enormously costly in material values. In the two years between the middle of 1917 and the middle of 1919, the Federal Government spent thirty-one billion dollars and sustained a net deficit of twenty-two billion dollars. During the past four years, this country has been engaged in another war. This time our enemy was a great economic disaster. In this war we bombed no cities; we Regraded 2 - 2 - machine-gunned no trenches; we killed no human beings. In this war, we fought with jobs and with dollars to save farmers from losing their farms; to save home owners from losing their homes; to give not only bread but work to the unemployed; to increase the security of jobs, property values, and business profits; to bring order out of chaos in our economic system. This war, like that other war, required a many-sided campaign under intelligent and courageous leadership -- a leadership that was superbly supplied by President Roosevelt. Finally, this war, like that other war, required a large spending program. This program, plus the special needs arising out of the great drought and the prepayment of the soldiers' bonus, necessitated outlays during the four years ended June 30, 1937, of some fourteen billion dollars in excess of our receipts. Regraded Unclassified 3 - 3 - We deliberately used an unbalanced Federal budget during the past four years to meet a great emergency. That policy has succeeded. The emergency that we faced in 1933 no longer exists. I am fully aware thatmany of our problems remain unsolved. I am aware that there still remains a considerable volume of unemployment; that the speculative markets have recently been under severe pressure; and that certain of our business indexes have recently shown a declining tendency. I am further aware that some persons contend that another great spending program is desirable to ward off the risk of a serious business depression. I claim no prophetic insight into the future. But, after giving serious and careful consideration to all these and other factors, I have reached the firm conviction that the domestic problems which face us today are Regraded Inclassified 4 - 4 - essentially different from those which faced us four years ago. Many measures are required for their solution. One of these measures in the present juncture is a balanced budget. Early in 1933, after three years of progressive deterioration, our whole economic mechanism was demoralized. Under these conditions, there was no agency outside of the Federal Government with the resources and the courage to bring about a business revival. Today the situation 1s greatly changed. We are now nearing the end of one of the most active years in the business history of this country. On the whole, this high level of activity has been of a healthy character -- not of the character that usually marks an unhealthy boom and precedes a serious depression. The present situation is not characterized by the existence of huge inventories, Regraded Unclassified 5 - 5 - high interest rates, over-extended credit positions, or great surpluses of housing accommodations, capital equipment, et cetera. We have not reached the stage of full employment of our productive resources. On the contrary, from all these standpoints, conditions are favorable for a continued increase in the level of business activity. This situation stands in sharp contrast to the banking collapse, the bread lines, the bankruptcies, and the general demoralization of 1933. It also stands in contrast to the unhealthy excesses of 1929. The basic need today 18 to foster the application of the driving force of private capital to the existing favorable circumstances. We want to see capital go into the productive channels of private industry. We want to see private business expand. We believe that the bulk of the remaining unemployment will disappear as private capital funds are S - 6 - increasingly employed in productive enterprises. We believe that one of the most important ways of achieving these ends at this time 18 to balance the Federal budget. In this connection, I should like to point out that the underlying technical conditions that made deficit spending the wisest kind of economic policy during the depression no longer exist. Thus, when we borrowed during the depression to finance our deficit spending, a large part of the funds was obtained through an expansion of bank credit. To this extent, our spending did not absorb capital funds that might otherwise have gone into private industry, nor did it absorb taxpayers' funds that might otherwise have gone into private consumption. Even to the extent that our bonds and notes were purchased by non-banking investors, the effect was largely to put to work capital funds that would otherwise have remained idle. Regraded 7 - 7 - A different situation prevails today. Our industrial recovery has created large new demands for private capital. Our commercial banks are again utilizing their credit resources for the financing of private industry. During the first six months of the present calendar year, the insured commercial banks of the country reduced their holdings of Government securities by six hundred eighty-five million dollars in order to meet actual and prospective demands for commercial credit. The obligations that they sold, plus an amount equal to the securities newly marketed by the Treasury, were purchased by investors. Any deficit spending that takes place under these conditions must be financed in large part by capital funds that would otherwise be available for business purposes. Regraded Unclassified 8 - OR - Despite the substantial increase in the public debt during the past four years, the credit of the Federal Government has remained absolutely unimpaired. Not once during even the darkest days of the depression did the Treasury experience the slightest difficulty in borrowing all the funds that were required. Moreover, the rates of interest on our borrowings have been lower, for comparable securities, than at any other time in the history of the country. We wish to preserve the financial power of the Federal Government to aid in restoring economic order in the future, if the need again arises. To preserve this power, we must liquidate during prosperity the debts incurred during periods of depression. Regraded Unclassified 9 - 9 - I turn now to the immediate practical aspects of budget balancing for the coming fiscal year. What are the controlling figures? Our total receipts for this year are estimated at about six billion six hundred millions, and our total net expenditures at about seven billion three hundred millions, leaving a net deficit of roughly seven hundred millions. To seek an ordinary balancing of the budget next year -- that is, a balance after full provision for accruing liabilities for old-age benefit payments, but exclusive of debt retirement --, we.must therefore accomplish a net improvement of seven hundred million dollars in our budgetary position. In estimating revenues, it is better to underestimate than to overestimate. We should not count on an increase in revenues next year from the existing tax structure, nor should.we impose Regraded Unclassified 10 - 10 - additional taxation. Instead, we should plan to bring next year's expenditures within this year's income; and then, if the tax receipts rise above those of this year, the excess should be used to reduce the national debt. Let us stop at this point to consider the revenue side of the picture. The Federal tax system affects every one in the country. We in the Treasury are constantly studying the tax problem with two objectives always before us: First, that the tax burden shall be distributed as fairly as possible and, second, that the collection of taxes shall be as little burdensome to the taxpayer as possible. It is with these aims that, by direction of the President, we have been reviewing the whole tax structure in the last few months and are just now in the process of presenting to a committee of Congress the information we Regraded Unclassified 11 - 11 - have collected. The study has not been directed toward raising new revenue. Rather we have sought to determine whether there are inequalities and injustices in the distribution of the tax burden and whether there are some taxes whose cost of collection and whose burdensome effect outweigh the revenue gain. In addition, we want to simplify collection and make the taxpayer's record-keeping less difficult. In making this study, we have invited the assistance and the advice of groups of taxpayers and of individuals. We want to hear the taxpayer's side of the story. We want all the facts we can get and we have obtained both facts and opinions. Our tax revenues come largely from individual earnings and business profits. We do not wish to impose levies which tend to dry up the sources of tax revenue. The laws Regraded Unclassified 12 - 12 - should be so written and administered that the taxpayer can continue to make a reasonable profit with a minimum of interference from his own Federal Government. or course, tax policy cannot be determined from one individual case alone. We must look at the whole picture. We must take testimony and we must examine actual tax records and returns. We realize that our tax laws are too complicated; we want to make them less 80. We realize that there are inequities; we want to eliminate as many of them as we can. The amount of our income-tax revenue is only about half our total internal revenue. Less than three million people out of our total population pay income taxes. We would be applying the principle of capacity to pay more Justly if we were to reduce the number of consumer taxes and at the same time to increase the number of income tax Regraded Unclassified 13 - 13 - payers. Taxpayers who are squarely confronted with their own tax burdens are bound to be keenly alive to the way the money is being spent by their Government. The budget now nearing completion is predicated on a definite estimate of receipts, based on the existing tax structure. It is a cardinal point that the tax system, as revised, must not yield a smaller return for 1939 than the present system would yield. We want to adjust inequalities and remedy defects in the tax laws. In doing this, we have sought the help of the taxpayer and have given him a sympathetic hearing. If we find that the operation of any particular tax is unfair, we stand ready to say 80 publicly. Regraded Unclassified 14 - 14 - Our immediate goal, then, should be to reduce expenditures by seven hundred million dollars. In addition, every dollar that the Treasury realizes from the liquidation of revolving funds, and from other repayments of loans and capital advances, should be set aside for debt retirement. In no event, in my opinion, should We contemplate total net expenditures in excess of the level of this year's estimated receipts. That means that our expenditures must not exceed six billion six hundred fifty million dollars for the coming year. Our problem is clear. Our expenditures must be cut seven hundred million dollars. But where can cuts totaling this amount be made? After careful study of the whole problem, I have come to the following conclusions: On the one hand, little or no money can be saved in the regular operating expenses of the Regraded Unclassified 15 - 15 - Federal Government, including the national defense and interest on the public debt. Further, our expenditures under the Social Security Act will probably increase by a hundred million dollars or more in the next fiscal year. On the other hand, by focusing attention on the several classes of expenditures that have been mainly responsible for our past deficits -- public highways, public works, unemployment relief, and agriculture --, I am convinced that the necessary savings can be made. Let me give you a rough idea of the possible savings in these fields. First, take the item of highway expenditures. Prior to the depression, the Federal grants to the States for public highway construction regularly ran under one hundred million dollars annually. This year the total Federal outlays for highways, inclusive of emergency expenditures, are Regraded Unclassified 16 - 16 - estimated at two hundred fifty-three millions; and, in addition, the existing highway programs call for new appropriations totaling more than four hundred million dollars for the next two years. I believe it is now time to return to the average annual level of highway expenditures that existed prior to the depression. Second, there is the field of public works, other than highways, on which we are spending five hundred seventy-three millions this year. This is a greater sum than was spent for this purpose during the entire five-year period between 1926 and 1930, inclusive. Next year, despite the fact that available unspent appropriations for this purpose already exceed six hundred millions, I believe that we can and should move definitely toward a lower level of public works outlays. Regraded Unclassified 17 - 17 - Third, it should be possible to make a further substantial reduction in our outlays for unemployment relief and the C.C.C. camps. During the present fiscal year, by reason of business recovery, these expenditures are already being reduced by some seven hundred eighty millions below last year's. I turn next to our expenditures on behalf of agriculture. The plight of agriculture in the depression called for emergency aid, not only in the farmers' interest, but in the interest of all of us. As many of you know, I have been deeply concerned for more than twenty years with the problems of agriculture, and I am most keenly interested in doing all that can be done to remove the economic disadvantages that the farmers have suffered. That very interest impels me to believe and to state with all the force at my command that agriculture cannot continue to rely on merely temporary expedients. Regraded Unclassified 18 - 18 - Besides the one hundred sixteen millions included in this year's budget for the general work of the Department of Agriculture, there are, among other items, estimated expenditures of four hundred seventy-five millions for the soil conservation program, thirty-three millions for rural electrification, fifty-five millions for the Federal land banks to provide lower interest rates, one hundred millions for commodity loans, and one hundred twenty-five millions for resettlement. These 1tems total nine hundred three millions for this fiscal year. Despite the magnitude of the sums we are now expending for agricultural purposes, you are all aware that discussion 1s taking place in Congressional committees of further measures in aid of agriculture that may involve large additional expenditures. Regraded Unclassified 19 - 19 - I am strongly in favor of a long-range program to maintain the independence and the purchasing power of the farmer. That program cannot endure and cannot render lasting aid to the farmer unless it be soundly based. The farmer himself does not want subsidies, but rather such fair prices and such balanced production of crops as will make subsidies unnecessary for his decent economic status. A sound program must take into consideration the farmer's opportunities in the foreign markets, as well as in those at home; and the character and cost of that program must be determined with full recognition of its effects upon our whole national economy and of the limitations imposed by the Federal finances. Balancing the budget is in the interest of our agricultural 8.8 well as of other parts of our population; and it requires the cooperation of the farmer as well as other sections of the public. Regraded Unclassified 20 - 20 - With the solid support of the public, I believe that economies totaling seven hundred millions or more can be achieved in the four fields that I have cited. Since the estimated increased costs of our social security program are more than offset by estimated reductions in miscellaneous and supplemental items, it should be possible to achieve an ordinary balancing of the budget next year. There may be some persons who would counsel a more drastic reduction of expenditures or a program of far heavier taxation in order to make certain a substantial reduction in the public debt in the next fiscal year. There are serious objections to such a course. We are definitely in a transition period between unbalanced and balanced Federal budgets. We are making great progress toward a balanced budget. Regraded Unclassified 21 - 21 - Relatively few persons realize the remarkable fact that the net improvement this year in the budgetary position of the Federal Government will amount to more than two billion dollars. In other words, the net deficit this year is estimated at less than seven hundred millions as compared with more than twenty-seven hundred millions last year. This net improvement of more than two billion dollars that is taking place in a single year provides the best answer to those who have publicly despaired of our willingness or our ability to balance the Federal budget. I firmly believe that there is just as much danger to our economy as a whole in moving too rapidly in this direction as there would be in not moving at all. The minimum goal that I propose will by no means be easy to achieve. Regraded Unclassified 22 - 22 - I have already indicated my belief that it would be unwise to raise taxes at this time solely to accumulate a surplus for debt retirement. More than two-thirds of this year's budgetary improvement comes from increased revenue, rather than from reductions in expenditures. There are equally compelling considerations on the expenditure side. I strongly favor a vigorous program for the progressive reduction of Federal expenditures to the minimum demanded by the Government's increased responsibilities. But it would be clearly unwise, and disruptive to many sections of private industry, if we were suddenly to slash Government expenditures by more than the amount I have indicated. In addition to these considerations, there 18 a new and important aspect of our budget that must now be considered in analyzing the economic effects of Federal expenditures Regraded Unclassified 23 - 23 - and receipts. The Social Security Act has introduced new items into our budget. A major one of these, the annual appropriation for the Old-Age Reserve Account, calls for the investment of this appropriation in Government obligations. The same Act also provides for the investment in Government obligations of moneys paid by the States into the Unemployment Trust Fund. The funds paid into both of these accounts operate Just like payments made by an individual to a private insurance company. Such a company invests your premiums in Government obligations, in farm and urban mortgages, in railroad, industrial, and public utility bonds, and in other forms of investment approved by one or more of the forty-eight different State laws. All that the insurance company has when it has invested your premiums in this manner, are bundles of pieces of paper representing all Regraded Unclassified 24 - 24 - kinds of promises to repay your money with interest to the insurance company. The Federal Government, in connection with the 01d-Age Reserve Account and the Unemployment Trust Fund, also invests your money in pieces of paper. But these pieces of paper are Government bonds and not private promises to pay. It 18 not overstating the case to say that your money 1s safer in Government bonds than in a multiplicity of private obligations, though, of course, I am in no way reflecting on the soundness of private insurance companies. It is very clear that the credit of the Government is the soundest in the Nation. And if anything shouldhappen to your Government, nothing else would have any value at all. Now, when the Treasury invests your old-age taxes and your unemployment compensation taxes in Government bonds, it reduces the amount of the public debt held by private investors. This is obviously 80 if the Treasury buys bonds Regraded Unclassified 25 - 25 - in the market directly for the accounts. However, the rates of interest which the Treasury is required by law to pay on funds invested for these accounts are higher than those which can be obtained by purchasing suitable Government obligations in the open market. Hence, the Treasury 1s issuing special Government bonds to these accounts, and is using the funds 80 obtained to reduce the amount of its obligations sold to or held by private investors. Next year, as a result of the Social Security Act and the related State laws, it is estimated that the Federal Treasury will receive more than one billion dollars net for investment in Government obligations for these two accounts. With a balanced budget, this billion dollars will be used to retire public debt now in the hands of private investors. In other words, the Treasury next year will be adding one billion dollars to the supply of funds in the capital market. Regraded Unclassified 26 - 26 - Even during the decade of the Twenties, when the Treasury was receiving large payments of interest and principal on war debts, and from the sale of surplus war materials, the maximum reduction made in any single year in the public debt held by private investors was one billion three hundred millions. My object this evening has been to present, as clearly and as frankly as I know how, a comprehensive picture of Federal expenditures and the budgetary outlook. I have tried to make plain the underlying economic reasons, as well as the humanitarian ones, for the past deficits; and I have tried to bring out clearly the underlying economic considerations that now demand a balanced Federal budget. I have shown why, in my opinion, this balance should be sought by a reduction of seven hundred million dollars in expenditures, and why a large surplus for debt retirement would be Regraded Unclassified 27 - 27 - undesirable at this time if it must be achieved by eliminating essential Federal services or by increasing the existing tax burden. The principal aims of our budgetary policy have been, and I hope will continue to be, to promote a large volume and healthy character of business activity, a maximum volume of employment at good wages in private industry, fair treatment for our agricultural population, adequate revenues to meet the increased services now demanded of the Federal Government, and the preservation of the credit and currency of the United States, on which depends the security of jobs, property values, and orderly business relations. Regraded Unclassifi 28 #13 Address of the Secretary of the Treasury, to be Delivered before the Academy of Political Science, at the Hotel Astor, New York City, Wednesday Evening, November 10, 1937 I am glad to accept the invitation of the Academy of Political Science to discuss before its members and guests assembled here tonight the subject of Federal spending and its relation to the balancing of the Federal budget. Nineteen years ago tomorrow, we signed the Armistice ending the World War. That war was enormously costly in human values, and it was enormously costly in material values. In the two years between the middle of 1917 and the middle of 1919, the Federal Government spent thirty-one billion dollars and sustained a net deficit of twenty-two billion dollars. During the past four years, this country has been engaged in another war. This time our enemy was a great economic disaster. In this war we bombed no cities; we Regraded Unclassified 29 - 2 - machine-gunned no trenches; we killed no human beings. In this war, we fought with Jobs and with dollars to save farmers from losing their farms; to save home owners from losing their homes; to give not only bread but work to the unemployed; to increase the security of jobs, property values, and business profits; to bring order out of chaos in our economic system. This war, like that other war, required a many-sided campaign under intelligent and courageous leadership -- a leadership that was superbly supplied by President Roosevelt. Finally, this war, like that other war, required a large spending program. This program, plus the special needs arising out of the great drought and the prepayment of the soldiers' bonus, necessitated outlays during the four years ended June 30, 1937, of some fourteen billion dollars in excess of our receipts. 30 - 3 - We deliberately used an unbalanced Federal budget during the past four years to meet a great emergency. That policy has succeeded. The emergency that we faced in 1933 no longer exists. I am fully aware that many of our problems remain unsolved. I am aware that there still remains a considerable volume of unemployment; that the speculative markets have recently been under severe pressure; and that certain of our business indexes have recently shown a declining tendency. I am further aware that some persons contend that another great spending program is desirable to ward off the risk of a serious business depression. I claim no prophetic insight into the future. But, after giving serious and careful consideration to all these and other factors, I have reached the firm conviction that the domestic problems which face us today are essentially Regraded Unclassified 31 - 4 - different from those which faced us four years ago. Many measures are required for their solution. One of these measures in the present juncture is a balanced budget. Early in 1933, after three years of progressive deterioration, our whole economic mechanism was demoralized. Under these conditions, there was no agency outside of the Federal Government with the resources and the courage to bring about a business revival. Today the situation is greatly changed. We are now nearing the end of one of the most active years in the business history of this country. On the whole, this high level of activity has been of a healthy character -- not of the character that usually marks an unhealthy boom and precedes a serious depression. The present situation is not characterized by the existence of huge inventories, Regraded Unclassified 32 - 5 - high interest rates, over-extended credit positions, or great surpluses of housing accomodations, capital equipment, et cetera. We have not reached the stage of full employment of our productive resources. On the contrary, from all these standpoints, conditions are favorable for a continued increase .in the level of business activity. This situation stands in sharp contrast to the banking collapse, the bread lines, the bankruptcies, and the general demoralization of 1933. It also stands in contrast to the unhealthy excesses of 1929. The basic need today is to foster the application of the driving force of private capital to existing favorable circumstances. We want to gee capital go into the productive. channels of private industry. We want to see private business expand. We believe that the bulk of the remaining unemployment will disappear as private capital funds are Regraded Unclassified 33 - 6 - increasingly employed in productive enterprises. We believe that one of the most important ways of achieving these ends at this time is to balance the Federal budget. In this connection, I should like to point out that the underlying conditions that made deficit spending the wisest kind of economic policy during the depression no longer exist. Thus, when we borrowed during the depression to finance our deficit spending, a large part of the funds was obtained through an expansion of bank credit. To this extent, our spending did not absorb capital funds that might otherwise have gone into private industry, nor did it absorb taxpayers' funds that might otherwise have gone into private consumption. Even to the extent that our bonds and notes were purchased by non-banking investors, the effect was largely to put to work capital funds that would otherwise have remained idle. Regraded Unclassified 34 - 7 - A different situation prevails today. Our industrial recovery has created large new demands for private capital. Our commercial banks are again utilizing their credit resources for the financing of private industry. During the first six months of the present calendar year, the insured commercial banks of the country reduced their holdings of Government securities by six hundred eighty-five million dollars in order to meet actual and prospective demands for commercial credit. The obligations that they sold, plus an amount equal to the securities newly marketed by the Treasury, were purchased by investors. Any deficit spending that takes place under these conditions must be financed in large part by capital funds that would otherwise be available for business purposes. Regraded Unclassified 35 - 8 - Despite the substantial increase in the public debt during the past four years, the credit of the Federal Government has remained absolutely unimpaired. Not once during even the darkest days of the depression did the Treasury experience the slightest difficulty in borrowing all the funds that were required. Moreover, the rates of interest on our borrowings have been lower, for comparable securities, than at any other time in the history of the country. We wish to preserve the financial power of the Federal Government to aid in restoring economic order in the future, if the need again arises. To preserve this power we must liquidate during prosperity the debts incurred during periods of depression. Regraded Unclassified 38 - 9 - I turn now to the immediate practical aspects of budget balancing for the coming fiscal year. What are the controlling figures? Our total receipts for this year are estimated at about six billion six hundred millions, and our total net expenditures at about seven billion three hundred millions, leaving a net deficit of roughly seven hundred millions. To seek an ordinary balancing of the budget next year -- that is, a balance after full provision for accruing liabilities for old-age benefit payments, but exclusive of debt retirement --, we must therefore accomplish a net improvement of seven hundred million dollars in our budgetary position. In estimating revenues, it is better to underestimate than to overestimate. We should not count on an increase in revenues next year from the existing tax structure, nor should we impose Regraded Unclassified 37 - 10 - - additional taxation. Instead, we should plan to bring next year's expenditures within this year's income; and then, 1f the tax receipts rise above those of this year, the excess should be used to reduce the national debt. Let us stop at this point to consider the revenue side of the picture. The Federal tax system affects every one in the country. We in the Treasury are constantly studying the tax problem with two objectives always before us: First, that the tax burden shall be distributed as fairly as possible and, second, that the collection of taxes shall be as little burdensome to the taxpayer as possible. It is with these aims that, by direction of the President, we have been reviewing the whole tax structure in the last few months and are just now in the process of presenting to a committee of Congress the information we Regraded Unclassified 38 - 11 - have collected. The study has not been directed toward raising new revenue. Rather we have sought to determine whether there are inequalities and injustices in the distribution of the tax burden and whether there are some taxes whose cost of collection and whose burdensome effect outweigh the revenue gain. In addition, we want to simplify collection and make the taxpayer's record-keeping less difficult. In making this study, we have invited the assistance and the advice of groups of taxpayers and of individuals. We want to hear the taxpayer's side of the story. We want all the facts we can get and we have obtained both facts and opinions. Our tax revenues come largely from individual earnings and business profits. We do not wish to impose levies which tend to dry up the sources of tax revenue. The laws Regraded Unclassified 39 - 12 - should be so written and administered that the taxpayer can continue to make a reasonable profit with a minimum of interference from his own Federal Government. Of course, tax policy cannot be determined from one individual case alone. We must look at the whole picture. We must take testimony and we must examine actual tax records and returns. We realize that our tax laws are too complicated; we want to make them less 80. We realize that there are inequities; we want to eliminate as many of them as we can. The amount of our income-tax revenue is only about half our total internal revenue. Less than three million people out of our total population pay income taxes. We would be applying the principle of capacity to pay more justly if we were to reduce the number of consumer taxes and at the same time to increase the number of income tax Regraded Unclassified 40 - 13 - payers. Taxpayers who are squarely confronted with their own tax burdens are bound to be keenly alive to the way the money is being spent by their Government. The budget now nearing completion 1s predicated on a definite estimate of receipts, based on the existing tax structure. It is 8. cardinal point that the tax system, as revised, must not yield a smaller return for 1939 than the present system would yield. We want to adjust inequalities and remedy defects in the tax laws. In doing this, we have sought the help of the taxpayer and have given him a sympathetic hearing. If we find that the operation of any particular tax is unfair, we stand ready to say so publicly. Regraded Unclassified 41 - 14 - Our immediate goal, then, should be to reduce expenditures by seven hundred million dollars. In no event, in my opinion, should we contemplate total net expenditures in excess of the level of this year's estimated receipts. That means that our expenditures must not exceed six billion six hundred fifty million dollars for the coming year. Our problem is clear. Our expenditures must be out seven hundred million dollars. But where can cuts totaling this amount be made? After careful study of the whole problem, I have come to the following conclusions: On the one hand, little or no money can be saved in the regular operating expenses of the Regraded Unclassified 42 - 15 - Federal Government, including the national defense and interest on the public debt. Further, our expenditures under the Social Security Act will probably increase by a hundred million dollars or more in the next fiscal year. On the other hand, by focusing attention on the several classes of expenditures that have been mainly responsible for our past deficits -- public highways, public works, unemployment relief, and agriculture --, it is apparent that great savings can be made. Let me give you a rough idea of the possible savings in these fields. First, take the item of highway expenditures. Prior to the depression, the Federal grants to the States for public highway construction regularly ran under one hundred million dollars annually. This year the total Federal outlays for highways, inclusive of emergency expenditures, are Regraded Unclassified 43 - 16 - estimated at two hundred fifty-three millions; and, in addition, the existing highway programs call for new appropriations totaling more than four hundred million dollars for the next two years. I believe it is now time to return to the average annual level of highway expenditures that existed prior to the depression. Second, there is the field of public works, other than highways, on which we are spending five hundred seventy-three millions this year. This 1s a greater sum than was spent for this purpose during the entire five-year period between 1926 and 1930, inclusive. Next year, despite the fact that available unspent appropriations for this purpose already exceed six hundred millions, I believe that we can and should move definitely toward a lower level of public works outlays. Regraded Unclassified 44 - 17 - Third, it should be possible to make a further substantial reduction in our outlays for unemployment relief and the C.C.C. camps. During the present fiscal year, by reason of business recovery, these expenditures are already being reduced by some seven hundred eighty millions below last year's. I turn next to our expenditures on behalf of agriculture. The plight of agriculture in the depression called for emergency aid, not only in the farmers' interest, but in the interest of all of us. As many of you know, I have been deeply concerned for more than twenty years with the problems of agriculture, and I am most keenly interested in doing all that can be done to remove the economic disadvantages that the farmers have suffered. That very interest impels me to believe and to state with all the force at my command that agriculture cannot continue to rely on merely temporary expedients. Regraded Unclassified 45 - 18 - Besides the one hundred sixteen millions included in this year's budget for the general work of the Department of Agriculture, there are, among other items, estimated expenditures of four hundred seventy-five millions for the soil conservation program, thirty-three millions for rural - electrification, fifty-five millions for the Federal land banks to provide lower interest rates, one hundred millions for commodity loans, and one hundred twenty-five millions for resettlement. These items total nine hundred three millions for this fiscal year. Despite the magnitude of the sums we are now expending for agricultural purposes, you are all aware that discussion is taking place in Congressional committees of further measures in aid of agriculture that may involve large additional expenditures. Regraded Unclassifier 48 -19- I am strongly in favor of a long-range program to maintain the independence and the purchasing power of the farmer. That program cannot endure and cannot render lasting aid to the farmer unless it be soundly based. The farmer himself does not want subsidies, but rather such fair prices and such balanced production of crops as will make subsidies unnecessary for his decent economic status. A sound program must take into consideration the farmer's opportunities in the foreign markets, as well as in those at home; and the character and cost of that program must be determined with full recognition of its effects upon our whole national economy and of the limitations imposed by the Federal finances. Balancing the budget 18 in the interest of our agricultural as well as of other parts of our population; and it requires the cooperation of the farmer as well as other sections of the public. 47 -20- With the solid support of the public, I believe that economies totaling seven hundred millions or more can be achieved in the four fields that I have cited. Since the estimated increased costs of our social security program are more than offset by estimated reductions in miscellaneous and supplemental items, it should be possible to achieve an ordinary balancing of the budget next year. There may be some persons who would counsel a more drastic reduction of expenditures or a program of far heavier taxation in order to make certain a substantial reduction in the public debt in the next fiscal year. There are serious objections to such a course. We are definitely in a transition period between unbalanced and balanced Federal budgets. We are making great progress toward a balanced budget. 48 -21- Relatively few persons realize the remarkable fact that the net improvement this year in the budgetary position of the Federal Government will amount to more than two billion dollars. In other words, the net deficit this year is estimated at less than seven hundred millions as compared with more than twenty-seven hundred millions last year. This net improvement of more than two billion dollars that is taking place in a single year provides the best answer to those who have publicly despaired of our ability to balance the Federal budget. I firmly believe that there is just as much danger to our economy as a whole in moving too rapidly in this direction as there would be in not moving at all. The minimum goal that I propose will by no means be easy to achieve. Regraded Unclassified 49 -22- I have already indicated my belief that it would be unwise to raise taxes at this time solely to accumulate a surplus for debt retirement. More than two-thirds of this year's budgetary improvement comes from increased revenue, rather than from reductions in expenditures. There are equally compelling considerations on the expenditure side. I strongly favor a vigorous program for the progressive reduction of Federal expenditures to the minimum demanded by the Government's increased responsibilities. But it would be clearly unwise, and disruptive to many sections of private industry, if we were suddenly to slash Government expenditures by more than the amount I have indicated. In addition to these considerations, there is a new and important aspect of our budget that must now be considered in analyzing the economic effects of Federal expenditures Regraded Unclassified 50 -23- and receipts. The Social Security Act has introduced new items into our budget. A major one of these, the annual appropriation for the Old-Age Reserve Account, calls for the investment of this appropriation in Government obligations. The same Act also provides for the investment in Government obligations of moneys paid by the States into the Unemployment Trust Fund. The funds paid into both of these accounts are handled very much like payments made by an individual to a private insurance company. Such a company invests your premiums in Government obligations, in farm and urban mortgages, in railroad, industrial, and public utility bonds, and in other forms of investment approved by one or more of the forty-eight different State laws. The manner in which these funds must be invested is laid down by the State laws and embodies the very sound principle of diversified risks. Regraded Unclassified 51 -24- The Federal Government, in connection with the Old-Age Reserve Account and the Unemployment Trust Fund, also invests the money which it receives in the manner laid down by Congress in Government obligations. Government obligations, of course, represent the most diversified risk available in this country as they rest on the tax obligations of all industries and all individuals. When the Treasury invests old-age receipts and unemployment compensation receipts in Government bonds, it reduces the amount of the public debt held by private investors. This is obviously so if the Treasury buys bonds Regraded Unclassified 52 -25- in the market directly for the accounts. However, the rates of interest which the Treasury is required by law to pay on funds invested for the old-age reserve account are higher than those which can be obtained by purchasing suitable Government obligations in the open market. Hence, the Treasury is issuing special obligations to this account and is using the funds so obtained to reduce the amount of its obligations sold to or held by private investors. Next year, as a result of the Social Security Act and the related State laws, it is estimated that the Federal Treasury will receive more than one billion dollars net for investment in Government obligations for these two accounts. With a balanced budget, this billion dollars will be used to retire public debt now in the hands of private investors. Through this operation the Treasury next year will be adding one billion dollars to the supply of funds in the capital market. 53 -26- Even during the decade of the Twenties, when the Treasury was receiving large payments of interest and principal on war debts, and from the sale of surplus war materials, the maximum reduction made in any single year in the public debt held by private investors was one billion three hundred millions. My object this evening has been to present, as clearly and as frankly 8.8 I know how, a comprehensive picture of Federal expenditures and the budgetary outlook. I have tried to make plain the underlying economic reasons, as well as the humanitarian ones, for the past deficits; and I have tried to bring out clearly the underlying economic considerations that now demand a balanced Federal budget. I have shown why, in my opinion, this balance should be sought by a reduction in expenditures, and why a large surplus for debt retirement would be undesirable at this time if it Regraded Unclassified 54 -27- must be achieved by eliminating essential Federal responsibilities or by increasing the existing tax burden. The principal aims of our budgetary policy have been, and I hope will continue to be, to promote a large volume and healthy character of business activity, a maximum volume of employment at good wages in private industry, fair treatment for our agricultural population, adequate revenues to meet the increased services now demanded of the Federal Government, and the preservation of the credit and currency of the United States, OR which depends the security of jobs, property values, and orderly business relations. Regraded Unclassified 55 #14 Address of the Secretary of the Treasury, to be Delivered before the Academy of Political Science, at the Hotel Astor, New York City, Wednesday Evening, November 10, 1937 I am glad to accept the invitation of the Academy of Political Science to discuss before its members and guests assembled here tonight the subject of Federal spending and its relation to the balancing of the Federal budget. Nineteen years ago tomorrow, we signed the Armistice ending the World War. That war was enormously costly in human values, and it was enormously costly in material values. In the two years between the middle of 1917 and the middle of 1919, the Federal Government spent thirty-one billion dollars and sustained a net deficit of twenty-two billion dollars. During the past four years, this country has been engaged in another war. This time our enemy was a great economic disaster. In this war we bombed no cities; we Regraded Unclassified 56 - 2 - machine-gunned no trenches; we killed no human beings. In this war, we fought with jobs and with dollars to save farmers from losing their farms; to save home owners from losing their homes; to give not only bread but work to the unemployed; to increase the security of jobs, property values, and business profits; to bring order out of chaos in our economic system. This war, like that other war, required a many-sided campaign under intelligent and courageous leadership -- a leadership that was superbly supplied by President Roosevelt. Finally, this war, like that other war, required a large spending program. This program, plus the special needs arising out of the great drought and the prepayment of the soldiers' bonus, necessitated outlays during the four years ended June 30, 1937, of some fourteen billion dollars in excess of our receipts. Regraded Unclassifie 57 - 3 - We deliberately used an unbalanced Federal budget during the past four years to meet a great emergency. That policy has succeeded. The emergency that we faced in 1933 no longer exists. I am fully aware that many of our problems remain unsolved. I am aware that there still remains a considerable volume of unemployment; that the speculative markets have recently been under severe pressure; and that certain of our business indexes have recently shown a declining tendency. I am further aware that some persons contend that another great spending program is desirable to ward off the risk of a serious business depression. I claim no prophetic insight into the future. But, after giving serious and careful consideration to all these and other factors, I have reached the firm conviction that the domestic problems which face us today are essentially Regraded Unclassified 58 - 4 - different from those which faced us four years ago. Many measures are required for their solution. One of these measures in the present juncture is 8. balanced budget. Early in 1933, after three years of progressive deterioration, our whole economic mechanism was demoralized. Under these conditions, there was no agency outside of the Federal Government with the resources and the courage to bring about a business revival. Today the situation is greatly changed. We are now nearing the end of one of the most active years in the business history of this country. On the whole, this high level of activity has been of a healthy character -- not of the character that usually marks an unhealthy boom and precedes a serious depression. The present situation is not characterized by the existence of huge inventories, Regraded Unclassified 59 - 5 - high interest rates, over-extended credit positions, or great surpluses of housing accommodations, capital equipment, et cetera. We have not reached the stage of full employment of our productive resources. On the contrary, from all these standpoints, conditions are favorable for a continued increase in the level of business activity. This situation stands in sharp contrast to the banking collapse, the bread lines, the bankruptcies, and the general demoralization of 1933. It also stands in contrast to the unhealthy excesses of 1929. In this connection, I should like to point out that the underlying conditions that made deficit spending the wisest kind of economic policy during the depression no longer exist. Thus, when we borrowed during the depression to finance our deficit spending, a large part of the funds was obtained through an expansion of bank credit. To Regraded Unclassified 60 - 6 - this extent, our spending did not absorb capital funds that might otherwise have gone into private industry, nor did it absorb taxpayers' funds that might otherwise have gone into private consumption. Even to the extent that our bonds and notes were purchased by non-banking investors, the effect was largely to put to work capital funds that would otherwise have remained idle. A different situation prevails today. Our industrial recovery has created large new demands for private capital. Our commercial banks are again utilizing their credit resources for the financing of private industry. During the first six months of the present calendar year, the insured commercial banks of the country reduced their holdings of Government securities by six hundred eighty-five million dollars in order to meet actual and prospective demands for commercial credit. The obligations that they Regraded Unclassified 61 - 7 - sold, plus an amount equal to the securities newly marketed by the Treasury, were purchased by investors. Any deficit spending that takes place under these conditions must be financed in large part by capital funds that would otherwise be available for business purposes. The basic need today 1s to foster the application of the driving force of private capital to existing favorable circumstances. We want to see capital go into the productive channels of private industry. We want to see private business expand. We believe that the bulk of the remaining unemployment will disappear as private capital funds are increasingly employed in productive enterprises. We believe that one of the most important ways of achieving these ends at this time is to balance the Federal budget. Regraded Unclassified 62 - g - I turn now to the immediate practical aspects of budget balancing for the coming fiscal year. What are the controlling figures? Our total receipts for this year are estimated at about six billion six hundred fifty millions, and our total net expenditures at about seven billion three hundred forty-six millions, leaving a net deficit of roughly seven hundred millions. To seek an ordinary balancing of the budget next year -- that is, a balance after full provision for accruing liabilities for old-age benefit payments, but exclusive of debt retirement --, we must therefore accomplish a net improvement of seven hundred million dollars in our budgetary position. In estimating revenues, it is better to underestimate than to overestimate. We should not count on an increase in revenues next year Regraded Unclassifie 63 - 9 - from the existing tax structure, nor should we impose additional taxation. Instead, we should plan to bring next year's expenditures within this year's income; and then, if the tax receipts rise above those of this year, the excess should be used to reduce the national debt. Let us stop at this point to consider the revenue side of the picture. The Federal tax system affects every one in the country. We in the Treasury are constantly studying the tax problem with two objectives always before us: First, that the tax burden shall be distributed as fairly as possible and, second, that the collection of taxes shall be as little burdensome to the taxpayer as possible. It is with these aims that, by direction of the President, we have been reviewing the whole tax structure in the last few months and are just now in the process of Regraded Unclassified 64 - 10 - presenting to a committee of Congress the information we have collected. The study has not been directed toward raising new revenue. Rather we have sought to determine whether there are inequalities and injustices in the distribution of the tax burden and whether there are some taxes whose cost of collection and whose burdensome effect outweigh the revenue gain. In addition, we want to simplify collection and make the taxpayer's record-keeping less difficult. In making this study, we have invited the assistance and the advice of groups of taxpayers and of individuals. We want to hear the taxpayer's side of the story. We want all the facts we can get and we have obtained both facts and opinions. Our tax revenues come largely from individual earnings and business profits. We do not wish to impose levies Regraded Unclassified 65 - 11 - which tend to dry up the sources of tax revenue. The laws should be so written and administered that the taxpayer can continue to make B. reasonable profit with a minimum of interference from his own Federal Government. Of course, tax policy cannot be determined from one individual case alone. We must look at the whole picture. We must take testimony and we must examine actual tax records and returns. We realize that our tax laws are too complicated; we want to make them less so. We realize that there are inequities; we want to eliminate as many of them as we can. The amount of our income-tax revenue is only about half our total internal revenue. Less than three million people out of our total population pay income taxes. We would be applying the principle of capacity to pay more justly if we were to reduce the number of consumer taxes Regraded Unclassified 66 - 12 - and at the same time to increase the number of income tax payers. Taxpayers who are squarely confronted with their own tax burdens are bound to be keenly alive to the way the money is being spent by their Government. The budget now nearing completion 1s predicated on a definite estimate of receipts, based on the existing tax structure. It is 8. cardinal point that the tax system, as revised, must not yield a smaller return for 1939 than the present system would yield. We want to adjust inequalities and remedy defects in the tax laws. In doing this, we have sought the help of the taxpayer and have given him a sympathetic hearing. If we find that the operation of any particular tax is unfair, we stand ready to say 80 publicly. Regraded Unclassifie 67 - 13- Our immediate goal, then, should be to reduce expenditures by seven hundred million dollars. In other words, we should not contemplate total net expenditures in excess of the level of this year's estimated receipts. But where can cuts totaling seven hundred millions be made? After careful study of the whole problem, I have come to the following conclusions: On the one hand, little or no money can be saved in the regular operating expenses of the Regraded Unclassified 68 - 14 - Federal Government, including the national defense and interest on the public debt. Further, our expenditures under the Social Security Act will probably increase by a hundred million dollars or more in the.next fiscal year. On the other hand, by focusing attention on the several classes of expenditures that have been mainly responsible for our past deficits -- public highways, public works, unemployment relief, and agriculture --, it is apparent that great savings can be made. Let me give you a rough idea of the possible savings in these fields. First, take the item of highway expenditures. Prior to the depression, the Federal grants to the States for public highway construction regularly ran under one hundred million dollars annually. This year the total Federal outlays for highways, inclusive of emergency expenditures, are 69 - 15 - estimated at two hundred fifty-three millions; and, in addition, the existing highway programs call for new appropriations totaling more than four hundred million dollars for the next two years. I believe it is now time to return - to the average annual level of highway expenditures that existed prior to the depression. Second, there is the field of public works, other than highways, on which we are spending five hundred seventy-three millions this year. This is a greater sum than was spent for this purpose during the entire five-year period between 1926 and 1930, inclusive. Next year, despite the fact that available unspent appropriations for this purpose already exceed six hundred millions, I believe that we can and should move definitely toward a lower level of public works outlays. 70 - 16 - Third, it should be possible to make a further substantial reduction, though not a drastic one, in our outlays for unemployment relief and the C.C.C. camps. During the present fiscal year, by reason of more active private business, these expenditures are already being reduced by some seven hundred eighty millions below last year's. I turn next to our expenditures on behalf of agriculture. The total of this year's expenditures for the regular activities of the department, the soil conservation program, rural electrification, resettlement, commodity loans, and lower interest rates for Federal land bank borrowers, exceeds nine hundred million dollars. Despite the magnitude of this sum, you are all aware that possible further measures involving large additional expenditures are now being discussed. Regraded Unclassified 71 - 17 - I am strongly in favor of a long-range program to maintain the independence and the purchasing power of the farmer. Such a program must take into consideration the farmer's opportunities in the foreign markets as well as in those at home; and no agricultural program can long endure which makes excessive demands upon the Federal Treasury, or is unfair to consumers. The farmer himself does not want subsidies, but rather such fair prices and such balanced production of crops as will make subsidies unnecessary for his decent economic status. Balancing the budget 1s in the interest of our agricultural as well as of other parts of our population: and 1t requires the cooperation of the farmer as well as other sections of the public. With the solid support of the public, I hope that economies totaling seven hundred millions can be achieved Regraded Unclassified 72 - 18 - in the four fields that I have cited. Since the estimated increased costs of our social security program are more than offset by estimated reductions in miscellaneous and supplemental items, it should be possible to achieve an ordinary balancing of the budget next year without increased taxes. There may be some persons who would counsel a more drastic reduction of expenditures or a program of far heavier taxation in order to make certain a more substantial reduction in the public debt in the next fiscal year. There are serious objections to such a course. I have already indicated that I believe it undesirable at this time to increase taxation. There are equally compelling considerations on the expenditure side. I strongly favor a vigorous program for the progressive reduction of Federal Regraded Unclassified 73 - 19 - expenditures to the minimum demanded by the Government's responsibilities. But it would clearly be disastrous to many of the needy unemployed, and disruptive to many sections of private industry, if we were suddenly to slash Government expenditures by much more than the amount I have indicated. We are definitely in a transition period between unbalanced and balanced Federal budgets; but I firmly believe that there is just as much danger to our economy as a whole in moving too rapidly in this direction as there would be in not moving at all. Relatively few persons realize the remarkable fact that the net improvement this year in the budgetary position of the Federal Government will amount to more than two billion dollars. In other words, the net deficit this year is estimated at less than seven hundred million as compared with more than twenty-seven hundred millions last year. Regraded Unclassified 74 - 20 - This net improvement of more than two billion dollars in a single year provides the best answer to those who have publicly despaired of our willingness or our ability to balance the Federal budget. More than two-thirds of this year's budgetary improvement comes from increased revenue, rather than from reductions in expenditures. Next year's balancing of the budget can properly be sought in a reduction of expenditures. In addition to these considerations, I should like to point out that, as a result of the Social Security Act and related State laws, it is estimated that the Federal Government next year will receive more than one billion dollars net for investment in Government securities for the Unemployment Trust Fund and the Old-Age Reserve Account. With a balanced budget, this billion dollars will be used Regraded Unclassified .. - 75 - 21 - to retire public debt now in the hands of private investors. While this operation by itself will not reduce the total amount of the public debt, it will result in adding roughly one billion dollars to the supply of funds in the capital market. Even during the decade of the Twenties, when the Treasury was receiving large payments of interest and principal on war debts, and from the sale of surplus war materials, the maximum reduction made in any single year in the public debt held by private investors was one billion three hundred millions. My object this evening has been to present, as clearly and as frankly as I know how, a comprehensive picture of Federal expenditures and the budgetary outlook. I have tried to make plain the underlying economic reasons, as well as the humanitarian ones, for the past deficits; and I have Regraded Unclassified : 76 - 22 - tried to bring out clearly the underlying economic considerations that now demand a balanced Federal budget. I have shown why, in my opinion, this balance should be sought by a reduction in expenditures, and why a large surplus for debt retirement would be undesirable at this time if it must be achieved by eliminating essential Federal responsibilities or by increasing the existing tax burden. The principal aims of our budgetary policy have been, and I hope will continue to be, to promote a large volume and healthy character of business activity, a maximum volume of employment at good wages in private industry, fair treatment for our agricultural population, adequate revenues to meet the increased services now demanded of the Federal Government, and the preservation of the credit and currency of the United States, on which depends the security of jobs, property values, and orderly business relations. -reised 77 Address of the Secretary of the Treasury, to be Delivered before the Academy of Political Science, at the Hotel Astor, New York City, Wednesday Evening, November 10, 1937 I am glad to accept the invitation of the Academy of Political Science to discuss before its members and guests the subject of Federal spending and its relation to the balancing of the Federal budget. Nineteen years ago tomorrow, we signed the Armistice ending the World War. That war was enormously costly in human values, and it was enormously costly in material values. In the two years between the middle of 1917 and the middle of 1919, the Federal Government spent thirty-one billion dollars and sustained a net deficit of twenty-two billion dollars. During the past four years, this country has been engaged in another war. This time our enemy was a great economic disaster. In this war we bombed no cities; we 78 - 2 - machine-gunned no trenches; we killed no human beings. In this war, we fought with Jobs and with dollars to save farmers from losing their farms; to save home owners from losing their homes; to give not only bread but work to the unemployed; to increase the security of jobs, property values, and business profits; to bring order out of chaos in our economic system. This war, like that other war, required a many-sided campaign under intelligent and courageous leadership -- a leadership that was superbly supplied by President Roosevelt. Finally, this war, like that other war, required a large spending program. This program, plus the special needs arising out of the great drought and the prepayment of the soldiers' bonus, necessitated net outlays during the four years ended June 30, 1937, of some fourteen billion dollars in excess of our receipts. 79 - 3 - We deliberately used an unbalanced Federal budget during the past four years to meet a great emergency. That policy has succeeded. The emergency that we faced in 1933 no longer exists. I am fully aware that many of our problems remain unsolved. I am aware that there still remains a considerable volume of unemployment; that the speculative markets have recently been under severe pressure; and that our business indexes have recently shown & declining tendency. I am further aware that some persons contend that another great spending program is desirable to ward off the risk of another business depression. I claim no prophetic insight into the future. But, after giving serious and careful consideration to all these and other factors, I have reached the firm conviction that the domestic problems which face us today are essentially 80 - 4 - different from those which faced us four years ago. Many measures are required for their solution. One of these measures in the present juncture is a determined movement toward a balanced budget. Early in 1933, after three years of progressive deterioration, our whole economic mechanism was demoralized. Under these conditions, there was no agency outside of the Federal Government with the resources and the courage to bring about a business revival. Today the situation is greatly changed. We are now nearing the end of one of the most active years in the business history of this country. On the whole, this high level of activity has been of a healthy character -- not of the character that usually marks an unhealthy boom and precedes a serious depression. The present situation is not characterized by the existence of huge inventories, 81 - 5 - high interest rates, over-extended credit positions, or great surpluses of housing accommodations, capital equipment, et cetera. We have not reached the stage of full employment of our productive resources. On the contrary, from all these standpoints, conditions are favorable for a continued increase in the level of business activity. This situation stands in sharp contrast to the banking collapse, the bread lines, the bankruptcies, and the general demoralization of 1933. It also stands in contrast to the unhealthy excesses of 1929. In this connection, I should like to point out that the underlying conditions that made deliberate deficit spending the wisest kind of economic policy during the depression no longer exist. Thus, when we borrowed during the depression to finance our deficit spending, a large part of the funds was obtained through an expansion of bank credit. To 82 - 6 - this extent, our spending did not absorb capital funds that might otherwise have gone into private industry, nor did it absorb taxpayers' funds that might otherwise have gone into private consumption. Even to the extent that our bonds and notes were purchased by non-banking investors, the effect was largely to put to work capital funds that would otherwise have remained idle. A different situation prevails today. Our industrial recovery during the last year has created large new demands for private capital. Our commercial banks have been again utilizing their credit resources for the financing of private industry. During the first six months of the present calendar year, the insured commercial banks of the country reduced their holdings of Government securities by six hundred eighty- five million dollars in order to meet actual and prospective demands for commercial credit. The obligations that they 83 - 7 - sold, plus an amount equal to the securities newly marketed by the Treasury, were purchased by investors. Any deficit spending taking place under these conditions would have to be financed in large part by capital funds that would otherwise be available for business purposes. The basic need today 1s to foster the application of the driving force of private capital to existing favorable circumstances. We want to see capital go into the productive channels of private industry. We want to see private business expand. We believe that the bulk of the remaining unemployment will disappear as private capital funds are increasingly employed in productive enterprises. We believe that one of the most important ways of achieving these ends at this time is to continue progress toward a balance of the Federal budget. 84 - 8 - I turn now to the immediate practical aspects of budget balancing for the coming fiscal year. What are the controlling figures? Our total receipts for this year were estimated in the President's budget summation of October 19 at about six billion six hundred fifty millions, and our total net expenditures at about seven billion three hundred forty-six millions, leaving a net deficit of roughly seven hundred millions. To attain an ordinary balancing of the budget next year -- that is, a balance after full provision for accruing liabilities for old-age benefit payments, but exclusive of debt retirement --, it would therefore be necessary to acomplish a net improvement of seven hundred million dollars in our budgetary position, as last estimated. In estimating revenues, it is better to underestimate than to overestimate. We should not count on an increase in revenues next year Regraded Unclassified 85 - 9 - from the existing tax structure, nor should we impose additional taxation. Instead, we should plan to bring next year's expenditures within this year's income. Let us stop at this point to consider the revenue side of the picture. The Federal tax system affects every one in the country. We in the Treasury are constantly studying the tax problem with two objectives always before us: First, that the tax burden shall be distributed as fairly as possible, and second, that the collection of taxes shall be as little burdensome to the taxpayer as possible. It 1s with these aims that, by direction of the President, we have been reviewing the whole tax structure in the last few months and are just now in the process of 8S - 15 - estimated at two hundred fifty-three millions; and, in addition, the existing highway programs call for new appropriations totaling more than four hundred million dollars for the next two years. I believe it is now time to return to the average annual level of highway expenditures that existed prior to the depression. Second, there is the field of public works, other than highways, on which we are spending five hundred seventy-three millions this year. This is a greater sum than the total that was spent for this purpose during the entire five-year period between 1926 and 1930, inclusive. Next year, despite the fact that available unspent appropriations for this purpose already exceed six hundred millions, I believe that we can and should move definitely toward a lower level of public works outlays. 87 - 16 - Third, it will be possible, I hope, to make a further substantial reduction in our outlays for unemployment relief and the C.C.C. camps. During the present fiscal year, by reason of more active private business, these expenditures are already being reduced by some seven hundred eighty millions below last year's. I turn next to our expenditures on behalf of agriculture. The total of this year's expenditures, exclusive of public highways, for the regular activities of the department, the soil conservation program, rural electrification, resettlement, commodity loans, and lower interest rates for Federal land bank borrowers, exceeds nine hundred million dollars. Despite the magnitude of this sum, you are all aware that possible further measures involving large additional expenditures are now being discussed. 88 - 19 - expenditures to the minimum demanded by the Government's responsibilities. But it would clearly be disastrous to many of the needy unemployed, and disruptive to many sections of private industry, if we were suddenly to slash Government expenditures by much more than the amount I have indicated. We are definitely in a transition period between unbalanced and balanced Federal budgets; but I firmly believe that there is just as much danger to our economy as a whole in moving too rapidly in this direction as there would be in not moving at all. Relatively few persons realize the striking fact that the net improvement this year in the budgetary position of the Federal Government will amount to more than two billion dollars. In other words, the net deficit this year is estimated at less than seven hundred million as compared with more than twenty-seven hundred millions last year. Regraded Unclassified 89 - 21 - to retire public debt now in the hands of private investors. While this operation by itself will not reduce the total amount of the public debt, it will result in adding roughly one billion dollars to the supply of funds in the capital market. Even during the decade of the Twenties, when the Treasury was receiving large payments of interest and principal on war debts, and from the sale of surplus war materials, the maximum reduction made in any single year in the public debt held by private investors was one billion three hundred millions. My object this evening has been to present, as clearly and as frankly as I know how, a comprehensive picture of Federal expenditures and the budgetary outlook. I have tried to make plain the underlying economic reasons, as well as the humanitarian ones, for the past deficits; and I have Regraded Unclassified 90 - 22 - tried to bring out clearly the underlying economic considerations that now demand a balanced Federal budget. I have shown why, in my opinion, this balance should be sought by a reduction in expenditures, and why a large surplus for debt retirement would be undesirable at this time if it must be achieved by eliminating essential Federal responsibilities or by increasing the existing tax burden. The principal aims of our budgetary policy have been, and I hope will continue to be, to promote a large volume and healthy character of business activity, a maximum volume of employment at good wages in private industry, fair treatment for our agricultural population, adequate revenues to meet the services now demanded of the Federal Government, and the preservation of the credit ,and currency of the United States, on which depend the security of jobs, property values, and orderly business relations. #15 91 Address of the Secretary of the Treasury, to be Delivered before the Academy of Political Science, at the Hotel Astor, New York City, Wednesday Evening, November 10, 1937 I welcome the opportunity to discuss before the members and guests of the Academy of Political Science the subject of Federal spending and its relation to the balancing of the Federal budget. Nineteen years ago tomorrow, we signed the Armistice ending the World War. That war was enormously costly in human values, and it was enormously costly in material values. In the two years between the middle of 1917 and the middle of 1919, the Federal Government sustained a net deficit of twenty-two billion dollars. During the past four years, this country has been engaged in another war. This time our enemy was a great economic disaster. In this war, we fought with jobs and 92 - 2 - with dollars to save farmers from losing their farms; to save home owners from losing their homes; to give not only bread but work to the unemployed; to increase the security of jobs, property values, and business profits; to bring order out of chaos in our economic system. This war, like that other war, required a many-sided campaign under intelligent and courageous leadership -- a leadership that was superbly supplied by President Roosevelt. Finally, this war, like that other war, required a large spending program. This program, plus the special needs arising out of the great drought and the prepayment of the soldiers' bonus, necessitated net outlays during the four years ended June 30, 1937, of some fourteen billion dollars in excess of our receipts. 93 - 3 - We deliberately used an unbalanced Federal budget during the past four years to meet a great emergency. That policy has succeeded. The emergency that we faced in 1933 no longer exists. I am fully aware that many of our problems remain unsolved. I am aware that there still remains a considerable volume of unemployment; that the speculative markets have recently been under severe pressure; and that our business indexes have recently shown a declining tendency. I am further aware that some persons contend that another great spending program 1s desirable to ward off the risk of another business depression. I claim no prophetic insight into the future. But, after giving serious and careful consideration to all these and other factors, I have reached the firm conviction that the domestic problems which face us today are essentially 94 - 4 - different from those which faced us four years ago. Many measures are required for their solution. One of these measures, but only one, in the present juncture is a determined movement toward a balanced budget. Early in 1933, after three years of progressive deterioration, our whole economic mechanism was demoralized, Under these conditions, there was no agency outside of the Federal Government with the resources and the courage to bring about a business revival. Today the situation is greatly changed. We are now nearing the end of one of the most active years in the business history of this country. On the whole, this high level of activity has been of a healthy character - not of the character that usually marks an unhealthy boom and precedes 8. serious depression. The present situation is not characterized by the existence of huge inventories, Regraded Unclassified 95 - 5 - high interest rates, over-extended credit positions, or great surpluses of housing and capital equipment. We have not reached the stage of full employment of our productive resources. On the contrary, from all these standpoints, conditions are favorable for a continued increase in the level of business activity. This stands in contrast to the unhealthy excesses of 1929. It stands in even sharper contrast to the banking collapse, the bread lines, the bankruptcies, and the general demoralization of 1933. Despite the substantial increase in the public debt during the past four years, the credit of the Federal Government has remained absolutely unimpaired. Not once during even the darkest days of the depression did the Treasury experience the slightest difficulty in borrowing all the funds that were required. Moreover, the rates of Regraded Unclassified 98 - 6 - interest on our borrowings have been lower, for comparable securities, than at any other time in the history of the country. But the underlying conditions that made deliberate deficit spending the wisest kind of policy during the depression no longer exist. Thus, when we borrowed during the depression to finance our deficit spending, a large part of the funds was obtained through an expansion of bank credit. To this extent, our epending did not absorb capital funds that might otherwise have gone into private industry, nor did it absorb by taxation funds that might otherwise have gone into private consumption. Even to the extent that our bonds and notes were purchased by non-banking investors, the effect was largely to put to work capital funds that would otherwise have remained idle. Regraded Unclassified 97 - 7 - A different situation prevails today. Our industrial recovery during the last year has created large new demands for private capital. Our commercial banks have been again utilizing their credit resources for the financing of private industry. During the present calendar year, the insured commercial banks of the country have substantially reduced their holdings of Government securities in order to meet actual and prospective demands for commercial credit. The obligations that they sold, plus an amount equal to the securities newly marketed by the Treasury, were purchased by investors. Any deficit spending under such conditions would have to be financed in large part by capital funds that would otherwise be available for business purposes. The basic need today is to foster the application of the driving force of private capital to existing favorable Regraded Unclassified 98 - 8 - circumstances. We want to see capital go into the productive channels of private industry. We want to see private business expand. We believe that much of the remaining unemployment will disappear as private capital funds are increasingly employed in productive'enterprises. We believe that one of the most important ways of achieving these ends at this time is to continue progress toward a balance of the Federal budget. I turn now to the immediate practical aspects of budget balancing for the coming fiscal year. What are the controlling figures? Our total receipts for this year were estimated in the President's budget summation of October 19 at about six billion six hundred fifty millions, and our total net expenditures at about seven billion three hundred forty-six millions, leaving an estimated net deficit of roughly seven hundred millions. Regraded 99 - 9 - To attain an ordinary balancing of the budget next year - that 1s, a balance after full provision for accruing liabilities for old-age benefit payments, but exclusive of debt retirement -, it would therefore be necessary to accomplish a net improvement of seven hundred million dollars in our budgetary position, 8.8 last estimated, In estimating revenues, it is better to underestimate than to overestimate. We should not count on an increase in revenues next year from the existing tax structure. Nor should we impose additional taxation. Instead, we should plan to bring next year's expenditures within this year's income. But where can cuts totaling seven hundred millions be made? After careful study of the whole problem, I have come to the following conclusions: On the one hand, while everything possible is being and will be done to keep 8. tight rein on the regular operating expenses of the Federal Government, including the national defense and interest on Regraded Unclassified 100 - 10 - the public debt, I do not believe that we can find large savings in this field. Further, our expenditures under the Social Security Act will increase next year. On the other hand, by focusing attention on the several classes of expenditures that have been mainly responsible for our past deficits - public highways, public works, unemployment relief, and agriculture --, it 1s apparent that great savings can be made. Let me give you an idea of the possibilities for savings in these fields. First, take the item of highway expenditures. Prior to the depression, the Federal grants to the States for public highway construction regularly ran under one hundred million dollars annually. This year the total Federal outlays for highways, inclusive of emergency expenditures, are estimated at two hundred fifty-three millions; and, in addition, the existing highway programs call for new 101 - 11 - appropristions totaling more than four hundred million dollars for the next two years. I believe it is now time to return to the average annual level of highway expenditures that existed prior to the depression, especially because during the past few years many other millions of dollars have been spent for highways out of relief appropriations. Second, there is the field of public works, other than highways, on which we are spending five hundred seventy-three millions this year. This is a greater sum than the total that was spent for this purpose during the entire five-year period between 1926 and 1930, inclusive. Next year, despite the fact that available unspent appropriations for this purpose already exceed six hundred millions, I believe that we can and should move definitely toward a lower level of public works outlays. Third, I hope that employment conditions will make possible a further substantial reduction in our outlays for 102 - 12 - unemployment relief and the C.C.C. camps. During the present fiscal year, by reason of more active private business, these expenditures are already being reduced by some seven hundred eighty millions below last year's. I turn next to our expenditures on behalf of agriculture. The total of this year's expenditures, exclusive of public highways, for the regular activities of the department, the soil conservation program, rural electrification, resettlement, commodity loans, and lower interest rates for Federal land bank borrowers, exceeds nine hundred million dollars. Despite the magnitude of this sum, you are all aware that possible further measures involving large additional expenditures are now being discussed. I am strongly in favor of a long-range program to maintain the independence and the purchasing power of the farmer. Such a program must take into consideration the farmer's opportunities in the foreign markets 86 well as 103 - 13 - in those at home; and no agricultural program can long endure which makes excessive demands upon the Federal Treasury, or is unfair to consumers. The farmer himself does not want subsidies, but rather such fair prices and such balanced production of crops as will make subsidies unnecessary for his decent economic status. Balancing the budget is in the interest of our agricultural as well as of other parts of our population; and it requires the cooperation of the farmer 88 well as other sections of the public. Only with the solid support of the public can we hope to achieve economies totaling seven hundred millions in the four fields that I have cited. There may be some persons who would counsel a more drastic reduction of expenditures or a program of far 104 INSERT - Page 14 Obviously, however, one reaches a point in reducing Government expenditures at which no further reductions can be made, unless it is decided completely to abandon many governmental activities -- in other words, unless it is de- cided to make drastic changes in national policy. For example, it would mean consideration of such things as weaken- ing our national defense, slowing up or abandoning flood control, soil erosion prevention, and security for the aged and unemployed. Such a course, I believe, would not have the approval of either the American people or their elected representatives in Congress. 105 - 14 N heavier taxation in order to make certain a more substantial reduction in the public debt in the next fiscal year. There are serious objections to either of these courses. I have already indicated that I believe it undesirable to increase taxation. There are equally compelling reasons why we should not reduce expenditures too suddenly and too drastically. I strongly favor 8. vigorous program for the progressive reduction of Federal expenditures to the minimum demanded by the Government's responsibilities. (INSERT) Moreover, it would clearly be disastrous to many of the needy unemployed, and disruptive to many sections of private industry, if we were to out Government expenditures in the coming fiscal year by much more than the amount I have indicated, We are definitely in a transition period between unbalanced and balanced Federal budgets; but I firmly believe that there 18 Just as much danger to our economy 106 - 15 - as 8 whole in moving too rapidly in this direction as there would be in not moving at all. Relatively few persons realize the striking fact that the net improvement this year in the budgetary position of the Federal Government 8.8 estimated will amount to more than two billion dollars. In other words, the net deficit this year is estimated at less than seven hundred million as compared with more than twenty-seven hundred millions last year. This net improvement of more than two billion dollars in 8. single year provides the best answer to those who, in most cases ignorant of the true facts, have publicly despaired of our ability to balance the Federal budget. Much of this year's anticipated budgetary improvement comes" from increased revenue, but we are supplementing this by also seeking reductions in expenditures. 107 - 16 - In addition to these considerations, I should like to point out that, as a result of the Social Security Act and related State laws, it is estimated that the Federal Government next year will receive more than one billion dollars net for investment in Government securities for the Unemployment Trust Fund and the Old-Age Reserve Account. Although this investment will not change the total amount of the public debt, it will with a balanced budget result in the transfer to these reserve accounts of more than & billion dollars of Government obligations now held by private investors. Even during the decade of the Twenties, when the Treasury was receiving large payments of interest and principal on war debts, and from the sale of surplus war materials, the maximum reduction made in any single year in the public debt held by private investors was one billion three hundred millions. The rate at which it is safe to 108 - 17 - reduce the public debt in private hands depends upon the rate at which private funds flow into investment channels. It is unsafe to go too fast. Although we are not contemplating any increase in the total tax burden, the character of our tax structure 1s being given earnest consideration. The Federal tax system affects everyone in the country. We in the Treasury in studying tax problems have two objectives always before us: First, that the tax burden shall be distributed as fairly as possible, and second, that the collection of taxes shall be as little burdensome to the taxpayer as possible. It is with these aims that, by direction of the President, we have been reviewing the whole tax structure in the last few months and are just now in the process of presenting to & committee of Congress the information we 109 - 18 - have collected. The study has not been directed toward raising additional revenue. Instead, we have sought to determine whether there are inequalities and injustices in the distribution of the tax burden and whether there are some taxes whose cost of collection and whose burdensome effect outweigh the revenue gain. In addition, we want to simplify collection and make the texpayer's record-keeping less difficult. We realize that our tax laws are too complicated; we want to make them less 80. We realize that there are inequities; we want to eliminate as many of them as we can. In making this study, we have invited the assistance and the advice of groups of taxpayers and of individuals, We want to hear the taxpayer's side of the story. We want all the facts we can get and we have obtained both facts and opinions. 110 - 19 - Our tax revenues come largely from individual eernings and business profits. We do not wish to impose levies which tend to dry up the sources of tax revenue, The laws should be so written and administered that the taxpayer can continue to make a reasonable profit with 8 minimum of interference from his own Federal Government; provided that the taxpayer cooperates with his Government in carrying out the purpose and the spirit of the tax laws. Of course, tax policy cannot properly be determined from exceptional cases. We must look at the whole picture. We base our decisions on extensive information and upon analysis of actual tax records. The amount of our income-tax revenue 18 only about half our total internal revenue. Less than three million people out of our total population pay income taxes. We would be applying the principle of capacity to pay more justly if we were to reduce the number of consumer taxes and at the same time to increase the number of income tax 111 - 20 - payers. Taxpayers who are squarely confronted with their own tax burdens are bound to be keenly alive to the way the money 1s being spent by their Government. The budget now nearing completion 1s predicated on a definite estimate of receipts, based on the existing tax structure. It 18 a cardinal point of our policy that the tax system, as revised, must not yield a smaller return for 1939 than the present system would yield. We want to adjust inequalities and remedy defects in the tax laws. In doing this, we have sought the help of the taxpayer and have given him a sympsthetic hearing. If we find that the operation of any particular tax is unfair, we stand ready to say 80 publicly. My object this evening has been to present, as clearly and as frankly as I know how, a comprehensive picture of 112 - 21 - Federal expenditures and the budgetary outlook. I have tried to make plain the underlying economic reasons, as well as the humanitarian ones, for the past deficits; and I have tried to bring out clearly the considerations that now demand further definite steps toward a balanced Federal budget. I have shown why, in my opinion, this balance should be sought by a reduction in expenditures without an increase in the total of the tax burden. The principal aims of our budgetary policy have been, and I hope will continue to be, to promote a high level and healthy character of business activity, a maximum volume of employment at good wages in private industry, a reasonable return to capital and enterprise, fair treatment for our agricultural population, and adequate revenues to meet the services now demanded of the Federal Government. Regraded Unclassifie 22-a 113 The attainment of these ends demands the cooperation of private business. This Administration is going to do everything possible to promote the continuation of business recovery and to balance the budget by reducing expenditures. But, in any event, this Administration will let no one starve. We are confident that, with the full cooperation of the business world, our present difficulties will be speedily overcome; and that the aims that I have set forth above, which are properly those of private business no less than those of the National Government, will be achieved. 114 22-b The attainment of these ends rests as much on private initiative and on the cooperation of private enterprise as it does upon any efforts which the Government can put forth. This Administration is going to do everything possible to promote a continuation of recovery and to balance the budget through cutting expenditures. However, business has to do its share. Should business fail to do its share or should the combined efforts of Government and business not attain the full effect that we hope for, this Administration is not going to let the needy starve. But we are confident that, with the full cooperation of the business world, our present difficulties will be speedily overcome. #16 16 115 Address of the Secretary of the Treasury, to be Delivered before the Academy of Political Science, at the Hotel Astor, New York City, Wednesday Evening November 10, 1937 I welcome the opportunity to discuss before the members and guests of the Academy of Political Science the subject of Federal spending and its relation to the balancing of the Federal budget. Nineteen years ago tomorrow, we signed the Armistice ending the World War. That war was enormously costly in human values, and it was enormously costly in material values. In the two years between the middle of 1917 and the middle of 1919, the Federal Government sustained a net deficit of twenty-two billion dollars. During the past four years, this country has been engaged in another war. This time our enemy was a great economic disaster. In this war, we fought with jobs and 116 - 2 - with dollars to save farmers from losing their farms; to save home owners from losing their homes; to give not only : bread but work to the unemployed; to increase the security of jobs, property values, and business profits; to bring order out of chaos in our economic system. This war, like that other war, required a many-sided campaign under intelligent and courageous leadership -- a. leadership that was magnificently supplied by President Roosevelt. Finally, this war, like that other war, required a large spending program. This program, plus the special needs arising out of the great drought and the prepayment of the soldiers' bonus, necessitated net outlays during the four years ended June 30, 1937, of some fourteen billion dollars in excess of our receipts. 117 - 3 - We deliberately used an unbalanced Federal budget during the past four years to meet & great emergency. That policy has succeeded. The emergency that we faced in 1933 no longer exists. I am fully aware that many of our problems remain unsolved. I am aware that there still remains a considerable volume of unemployment; that the speculative markets have recently been under severe pressure; and that our business indexes have recently shown a declining tendency. I am further aware that some persons contend that another great spending program 18 desirable to ward off the risk of another business depression. I claim no prophetic insight into the future. But, after giving serious and careful consideration to all these and other factors, I have reached the firm conviction that the domestic problems which face us today are essentially 118 - 4 - different from those which faced us four years ago. Many measures are required for their solution. One of these measures, but only one, in the present juncture is a determined movement toward 8. balanced budget. Early in 1933, after three years of progressive deterioration, our whole economic mechanism was demoralized. Under these conditions, there was no agency outside of the Federal Government with the resources and the courage to bring about a business revival. Today the situation is greatly changed. We are now nearing the end of one of the most active years in the business history of this country. On the whole, this high level of activity has been of a healthy character -- not of the character that usually marks an unhealthy boom and precedes a serious depression. The present situation is not characterized by the existence of huge inventories, 119 - 5 - high interest rates, over-extended credit positions, or great surpluses of housing and canital equipment. We have not reached the stage of full employment of our productive resources, On the contrary, from all these standpoints, conditions are favorable for a continued increase in the level of business activity. This stands in contrast to the unhealthy excesses of 1929. It stands in even sharper contrast to the banking collanse, the bread lines, the bankruntcies, and the general demoralization of 1933. Despite the substantial increase in the public debt during the past four years, the credit of the Federal Government has remained absolutely unimpaired. Not once during even the darkest days of the depression did the Treasury experience the slightest difficulty in borrowing all the funds that were required. Moreover, the rates of 120 - 6 - interest on our borrowings have been lower, for comparable securities, than at any other time in the history of the country. But the underlying conditions that made deliberate deficit spending the wisest kind of policy during the depression have been altered during the progress of recovery. Thus, when we borrowed during the depression to finance our deficit spending, a large nart of the funds was obtained through an expansion of bank credit. To this extent, our spending did not absorb capital funds that might otherwise have gone into private industry, nor did it absorb by taxation funds that might otherwise have gone into private consumption. Even to the extent that our bonds and notes were purchased by non-banking investors, the effect was largely to put to work canital funds that would otherwise have remained idle. 121 - 7 - Our industrial recovery of the last year, however, has created large new demands for private capital. Our commercial banks have been again utilizing their credit resources for the financing of private industry. During the present calendar year, the insured commercial banks of the country have substantially reduced their holdings of Government securities in order to meet actual and prospective demands for commercial credit. The obligations that they sold, plus an amount equal to the securities newly marketed by the Treasury, were purchased by investors. Any deficit spending under conditions of active demand for private canital would have to be financed in large part by capital funds that would otherwise be available for business purposes. The basic need today is to foster the full application of the driving force of private capital. We want to see capital go into the productive 122 - 8 - channels of private industry. We want to see private business expand. We believe that much of the remaining unemployment will disappear as private capital funds are increasingly employed in productive enterprises. We believe that one of the most important ways of achieving these ends at this time is to continue progress toward a balance of the Federal budget. I turn now to the immediate practical aspects of budget balancing for the coming fiscal year. What are the controlling figures? Our total receipts for this year were estimated in the President's budget summation of October 19 at about six billion six hundred fifty millions, and our total net expenditures at about seven billion three hundred forty-six millions, leaving an estimated net deficit of about seven hundred millions. 123 - 9 - To attain an ordinary balancing of the budget next year -- that 1s, a balance after full provision for accruing liabilities for old-age benefit payments, but exclusive of debt retirement --, it would therefore be necessary to accomplish a net improvement of seven hundred million dollars in our budgetary position, as last estimated. To be prudent, we should not count on an increase in revenues next year from the existing tax structure. Nor should we impose additional taxation. Instead, we should plan to bring next year's expenditures within this year's income. But where can cuts totaling seven hundred millions be made? After careful study of the whole problem, I have come to the following conclusions: On the one hand, while everything possible 1s being and will be done to keep a tight rein on the regular operating expenses of the Federal 124 - 10 - Government, including the national defense and interest on the public debt, I do not believe that we can find large savings in this field. Further, our expenditures under the Social Security Act will increase next year. On the other hand, by focusing attention on the several classes of expenditures that have been mainly responsible for our past deficits -- public highways, public works, unemployment relief, and agriculture --, it is apparent that great savings can be made. Let me give you an idea of the possibilities for savings in these fields. First, take the item of highway expenditures. Prior to the depression, the Federal grants to the States for public highway construction regularly ran under one hundred million dollars annually. This year the total Federal outlays for highways, inclusive of emergency expenditures, 125 - 11 - are estimated at two hundred fifty-three millions; and, in addition, the existing highway programs call for new appropriations totaling more than four hundred million dollars for the next two years. I believe it is now time to return to the average annual level of highway expenditures that existed prior to the depression, especially because during the past few years many other millions of dollars have been spent for highways out of relief appropriations. Second, there is the field of public works, other than highways, on which we are spending five hundred seventy-three millions this year. This 18 a greater sum than the total that was spent for this purpose during the entire five-year period between 1926 and 1930, inclusive. Next year, despite the fact that available unspent appropriations for this purpose already exceed six hundred millions, I believe that we can and should move definitely toward a lower level of public works outlays. 126 - 12 - Third, I sincerely hope that employment conditions will make possible a further substantial reduction in our outlays for unemployment relief and the C.C.C. camps. During the present fiscal year, by reason of more active private business, these expenditures are already being reduced by some seven hundred and eighty millions below last year's. I turn next to our expenditures on behalf of agriculture. The total of this year's expenditures, exclusive of public highways, for the regular activities of the department, the soil conservation program, rural electrification, resettlement, commodity loans, and lower interest rates for Federal land bank borrowers, exceeds nine hundred million dollars. Despite the magnitude of this sum, you are all aware that possible further measures involving large additional expenditures are now being discussed. 127 - 13 - I am strongly in favor of a long-range program to maintain the independence and the purchasing power of the farmer. Such a program must take into consideration the farmer's opportunities in the foreign markets as well as in those at home; and no agricultural program can long endure which makes excessive demands upon the Federal Treasury, or 1s unfair to consumers. The farmer himself does not want subsidies, but rather such fair prices and such balanced production of crops as will make subsidies unnecessary for his decent economic status. Balancing the budget 1s as much in the interest of farmers as in the interest of other parts of our population; and It requires the cooperation of the farmer as well as of other sections of the public. 128 - 14 - Only with the solid backing of the public can we hone to achieve economies totaling seven hundred millions in the four fields that I have cited. There may be some persons who would counsel a more drastic reduction of expenditures or a program of far heavier taxation in order to make certain a more substantial reduction in the public debt in the next fiscal year. There are serious objections to either of these courses. I have already indicated that I believe it undesirable to increase taxation. There are equally compelling reasons why we should not reduce expenditures too suddenly and too drastically. I strongly favor a vigorous program for the progressive reduction of Federal expenditures to the minimum demanded by the Government's responsibilities. 129 - 15 - Obviously, however, one reaches a point in reducing Government expenditures at which no further reductions can be made, unless it 1s decided to crinnle many essential governmental activities -- in other words, unless it 1s decided to make drastic changes in national policy. For example, it would mean consideration of such things as weakening our national defense, and slowing up or abandoning flood control, soil erosion prevention, and relief for the aged and the unemployed. Such a course, I believe, would not have the approval of either the American people or their elected representatives in Congress. Moreover, it would clearly be disastrous to many of the needy unemployed, and disruntive to many sections of private industry, if we were to cut Government expenditures in the coming fiscal year by much more than the amount I have indicated. 130 - 16 - We are definitely in a transition period between unbalanced and balanced Federal budgets; but I firmly believe that there is just as much danger to our economy as a whole in moving too rapidly in this direction as there would be in not moving at all. Relatively few persons realize the striking fact that the net improvement this year in the budgetary position of the Federal Government as estimated will amount to more than two billion dollars. In other words, the net deficit this year 1e estimated at less than seven hundred millions as compared with more than two billion seven hundred millions last year. This net improvement of more than two billion dollars in R single year provides the best answer to those who, in most cases ignorant of the true facts, have publicly despaired of our ability to balance the Federal budget. 131 - 17 - True, much of this year's anticipated budgetary improvement comes from increased revenue, but we are supplementing this by also seeking reductions in expenditures. In addition to these considerations, I should like to point out that, as a result of the Social Security Act and related State laws, it 1s estimated that the Federal Government next year will receive more than one billion dollars net for investment in Government securities for the Unemployment Trust Fund and the Old-Age Reserve Account. Although this investment will not change the total amount of the public debt, it will with 8. balanced budget result in the transfer to these reserve accounts of more than a billion dollars of Government obligations now held by private investors. Even during the decade of the Twenties, when the Treasury was receiving large payments of interest and 132 - 18 - principal on war debts, and from the sale of surplus war materials, the maximum reduction made in any single year in the public debt held by private investors was one billion three hundred fifty millions. The rate at which it is safe to reduce the public debt in private hands depends upon the rate at which private funds flow into investment abannels. It is unsafe to go too fast. Although we are not contemplating any increase in the total tax burden, the character of our tax structure is being given earnest consideration. The Federal tax system affects every one in the country. We in the Treasury in studying tax problems have two objectives always before us: First, that the tax burden shall be distributed as fairly 8.8 possible, and second, that the collection of taxes shall be as little burdensome to the taxpayer 8.8 possible. 133 - 19 - It 18 with these aims that, by direction of the President, we have been reviewing the whole tax structure in the last few months and are just now in the process of : presenting to a committee of Congress the information we have collected. The study has not been directed toward raising additional revenue. Instead, we have sought to determine whether there are inequalities and injustices in the distribution of the tax burden and whether there are some taxes whose cost of collection and whose burdensome effect outweigh the revenue gain. In addition, we want to simplify collection and make the taxpayer's record-keeping less difficult. We realize that our tax laws are too complicated; we want to make them less SO. We realize that there are inequities; we want to eliminate as many of them 8.8 we can. 134 - 20 - In making this study, we have invited the assistance and the advice of groups of taxpayers and of individuals. We want to hear the taxpayer's side of the story. We want all the facts we can get and we have obtained both facts and opinions. Our tax revenues come largely from individual earnings and business profits. We do not wish to impose levies which tend to dry up the sources of tax revenue. The laws should be so written and administered that the taxpayer can continue to make 8. reasonable profit with a minimum of interference from his own Federal Government; provided that the taxpayer cooperates with his Government in carrying out the purpose and the spirit of the tax laws. Of course, tax policy cannot properly be determined from exceptional cases. We must look at the whole picture. We base our decisions on extensive information and upon analysis of actual tax records. 135 - 21 - The amount of our income-tax revenue 1s only about half our total internal revenue. Less than three million people out of our total population Day individual Federal income taxes. We would be applying the principle of capacity to pay more justly if we were to reduce the number of consumer taxes and at the same time to increase the number of income tax payers. Taxpayers who are squarely confronted with their own tax burdens are bound to be keenly alive to the way the money 1s being spent by their Government. The budget now nearing completion is predicated on a definite estimate of receipts, based on the existing tax structure. It is a cardinal point of our policy that the tax system, 8.8 revised, must not yield a smaller return for 1939 than the present system would vield. We want to adjust inequalities and remedy defects in the tax laws. In doing this, we have sought the help of 136 - 22 - the taxpayer and have given him 8 sympathetic hearing. If we find that the operation of any particular tax is unfair, we stand ready to say so publicly. My object this evening has been to present, as clearly and 8.S frankly 8.8 I know how, a comprehensive picture of Federal expenditures and the budgetary outlook. I have tried to make plain the underlying economic reasons, as well as the humanitarian ones, for the past deficits; and I have tried to bring out clearly the considérations that now demand further definite steps toward a balanced Federal budget. I have shown why, in my opinion, this balance should be sought by a reduction in expenditures without an increase in the total of the tax burden. But I have also shown that there is a limit to reductions and that balancing of budgets needs the help of industry to keep up total tax 137 - 23 - receipts unless we are again to resort to deficit financing. The principal aims of our budgetary policy have been, and I hope will continue to be, to promote a high level and healthy character of business activity, a maximum volume of employment at good wages in private industry, a reasonable return to canital and enterprise, fair treatment for our agricultural population, and adequate revenues to meet the services now demanded of the Federal Government. The attainment of these ends rests very greatly on private initiative and on the cooperation of private enterprise. This 18 a necessary supplement to any efforts which the Government can put forth. This Administration is going to do everything possible to promote a continuation of recovery and to balance the budget through cutting expenditures. But I wish to emphasize that in no event will this Administration allow anyone to starve, nor will 138 - 24 - it abandon its broad purpose to protect the weak, to give human security and to seek a wider distribution of our national income. We are confident that, with the full cooperation of the business world, our present difficulties will be overcome; and that the aims that I have set forth above, which are properly those of private business as well as those of the National Government, will be achieved. # 17 139 Address of the Secretary of the Treasury, to be Delivered before the Academy of Political Science, at the Hotel Astor, New York City, Wednesday Evening, November 10, 1937 I welcome the opportunity to discuss before the members and guests of the Academy of Political Science the subject of Federal spending and its relation to the balancing of the Federal budget. Nineteen years ago tomorrow, we signed the Armistice ending the World War. That war was enormously costly in human values, and it was enormously costly in material values. In the two years between the middle of 1917 and the middle of 1919, the Federal Government sustained a net deficit of twenty-two billion dollars. During the past four years, this country has been engaged in another war, This time our enemy was a great economic disaster. In this war, we fought with jobs and 140 - 2 - with dollars to save farmers from losing their farms; to save home owners from losing their homes; to give not only bread but work to the unemployed; to increase the security of jobs, property values, and business profits; to bring order out of chaos in our economic system. This war, like that other war, required a many-sided campaign under intelligent and courageous leadership - a leadership that was magnificently supplied by President Roosevelt. Finally, this war, like that other war, required a large spending program. This program, plus the special needs arising out of the great drought and the prepayment of the soldiers' bonus, necessitated net outlays during the four years ended June 30, 1937, of some fourteen billion dollars in excess of our receipts. Regraded 141 INSERT Of course, it is easily possible to criticize some of the detailed uses of the relief funds. Let us concede that there was some waste. In any expenditure program of such magnitude this is inevitable. But contrasted with the human and material values at stake, such waste as may have occurred shrinks to insignificance. Regraded Unclassified 142 - 3 - We deliberately used an unbalanced Federal budget during the past four years to meet a great emergency. That policy has succeeded. The emergency that we faced in 1933 no longer exists. I am fully aware that many of our problems remain unsolved. I am aware that there still remains a considerable volume of unemployment; that the speculative markets have recently been under severe pressure; and that our business indexes have recently shown a declining tendency. I am further aware that some persons contend that another great spending program is desirable to ward off the risk of another business depression. I claim no prophetic insight into the future. But, after giving serious and careful consideration to all these and other factors, I have reached the firm conviction that the domestic problems which face us today are essentially Regraded Unclassified 143 - 4 - different from those which faced us four years ago. Many measures are required for their solution. One of these measures, but only one, in the present juncture is a determined movement toward a balanced budget. Early in 1933, after three years of progressive deterioration, our whole economic mechanism was demoralized, Under these conditions, there was no agency outside of the Federal Government with the resources and the courage to bring about 8. business revival. Today the situation is greatly changed. We are now nearing the end of one of the most active years in the business history of this country. On the whole, this high level of activity has been of a healthy character - not of the character that usually marks an unhealthy boom and precedes a serious depression. The present situation 18 not characterized by the existence of huge inventories, Regraded Unclassified 144 - 5 - high interest rates, over-extended credit positions, or great surpluses of housing and capital equipment. We have not reached the stage of full employment of our productive resources. On the contrary, from all these standpoints, conditions are favorable for a continued increase in the level of business activity. This stands in contrast to the unhealthy excesses of 1929. It stands in even sharper contrast to the banking collapse, the bread lines, the bankruptcies, and the general demoralization of 1933. Despite the substantial increase in the public debt during the past four years, the credit of the Federal Government has remained absolutely unimpaired. Not once during even the darkest days of the depression did the Treasury experience the slightest difficulty in borrowing all the funds that were required. Moreover, the rates of Regraded Unclassified 145 - 6 - interest on our borrowings have been lower, for comparable securities, than at any other time in the history of the country. But the underlying conditions that made deliberate deficit spending the wisest kind of policy during the depression have been altered during the progress of recovery. Thus, when we borrowed during the depression to finance our deficit spending, a large part of the funds was obtained through an expansion of bank credit. To this extent, our spending did not absorb capital funds that might otherwise have gone into private industry, nor did it absorb by taxation funds that might otherwise have gone into private consumption. Even to the extent that our bonds and notes were purchased by non-banking investors, the effect was largely to put to work capital funds that would otherwise have remained idle. Regraded 1 Inclassified 146 - 7 - Our industrial recovery of the last year, however, has created large new demands for private capital. Our commercial banks have been again utilizing their credit resources for the financing of private industry. During the present calendar year, the insured commercial banks of the country have substantially reduced their holdings of Government securities in order to meet actual and prospective demands for commercial credit. The obligations that they sold, plus an amount equal to the securities newly marketed by the Treasury, were purchased by investors. Any deficit spending under conditions of active demand for private capital would have to be financed in large part by capital funds that would otherwise be available for business purposes. The basic need today is to foster the full application of the driving force of private capital. We want to see Regraded Unclassified 147 - 8 - capital go into the productive channels of private industry. We want to see private business expand. We believe that much of the remaining unemployment will disappear as private capital funds are increasingly employed in productive enterprises. We believe that one of the most important ways of achieving these ends at this time is to continue progress toward a balance of the Federal budget. I turn now to the immediate practical aspects of budget balancing for the coming fiscal year. What are the controlling figures? Our total receipts for this year were estimated in the President's budget summation of October 19 at about six billion six hundred fifty millions, and our total net expenditures at about seven billion three hundred forty-five millions, leaving an estimated net deficit of six hundred ninety-five millions. Regraded Unclassified 148 - 9 - To attain an ordinary balancing of the budget next year -- that 18, a balance after full provision for accruing liabilities for old-age benefit payments, but exclusive of debt retirement --, it would be necessary to accomplish a net improvement of about seven hundred million dollars in our budgetary position, as last estimated. To be prudent, we should not count on an increase in revenues next year from the existing tax structure. Nor should we impose additional taxation. Instead, we should plan to bring next year's expenditures within this year's income. But where can cuts totaling seven hundred millions be made? After careful study of the whole problem, I have come to the following conclusions: On the one hand, while everything possible is being and will be done to keep 8. tight rein on the regular operating expenses of the Federal Regraded Unclassified 149 - 10 - Government, including the national defense and interest on the public debt, I do not believe that we can find large savings in this field. Further, our expenditures under the Social Security Act will increase next year. On the other hand, by focusing attention on the several classes of expenditures that have been mainly responsible for our past deficits -- public highways, public works, unemployment relief, and agriculture --, it is apparent that great savings can be made. Let me give you an idea of the possibilities for savings in these fields. First, take the item of highway expenditures. Prior to the depression, the Federal grants to the States for public highway construction generally ran under one hundred million dollars annually. This year the total Federal outlays for highways, inclusive of emergency expenditures, Regraded Unclassifie 150 - 11 - are estimated at two hundred fifty-three millions; and, in addition, the existing highway programs call for new appropriations totaling more than four hundred million dollars for the next two years. I believe it is now time to return to the average annual level of highway expenditures that existed prior to the depression, especially because during the past few years many other millions of dollars have been spent for highways out of relief appropriations. Second, there is the field of public works, other than highways, on which we are spending five hundred seventy-three millions this year. This is a greater sum than the total that was spent for this purpose during the entire five-year period between 1926 and 1930, inclusive. Next year, despite the fact that there will be available from appropriations already made for this purpose about six hundred millions, I believe that we can and should move definitely toward a. lower level of public works outlays. Regraded Unclassifie 151 - 12 - Third, I sincerely hope that employment conditions will make possible a further substantial reduction in our outlays for unemployment relief and the C.C.C. camps. During the present fiscal year, by reason of more active private business, these expenditures are already being reduced by more than seven hundred and fifty millions below last year's. I turn next to our expenditures on behalf of agriculture. The total of this year's expenditures, exclusive of public highways, for the regular activities of the department, the soil conservation program, rural electrification, resettlement, commodity loans, and lower interest rates for Federal land bank borrowers, exceeds nine hundred million dollars. Despite the magnitude of this sum, you are all aware that possible further measures involving large additional expenditures are now being discussed. Regraded Unclassifie 152 - 13 - I am strongly in favor of 8 long-range program to maintain the independence and the purchasing power of the farmer. Such a program must take into consideration the farmer's opportunities in the foreign markets as well as in those at home; and no agricultural program can long endure which makes excessive demands upon the Federal Treasury, or is unfair to consumers. The farmer himself does not want subsidies, but rather such fair prices and such balanced production of crops as will make subsidies unnecessary for his decent economic status. Balancing the budget is as much in the interest of farmers as in the interest of other parts of our population; and it requires the cooperation of the farmer as well as of other sections of the public. Regraded 153 - 14 - Only with the solid backing of the public can we hope to achieve economies totaling seven hundred millions in the four fields that I have cited. There may be some persons who would counsel a more drastic reduction of expenditures or a program of far heavier taxation in order to make certain a more substantial reduction in the public debt in the next fiscal year. There are serious objections to either of these courses. I have already indicated that I believe it undesirable to increase taxation. There are equally compelling reasons why we should not reduce expenditures too suddenly and too drastically. I strongly favor 8. vigorous program for the progressive reduction of Federal expenditures to the minimum demanded by the Government's responsibilities. Regraded Unclassified 154 - 15 - Obviously, however, one reaches a point in reducing Government expenditures at which no further reductions can be made, unless it is decided to cripple many essential governmental activities -- in other words, unless it is decided to make drastic changes in national policy. For example, it would mean consideration of such things as weakening our national defense, and slowing up or abandoning flood control, soil erosion prevention, and relief for the aged and the unemployed. Such a course, I believe, would not have the approval of either the American people or their elected representatives in Congress. Moreover, it would clearly be disastrous to many of the needy unemployed, and disruptive to many sections of private industry, if we were to out Government expenditures in the coming fiscal year by much more than the amount I have indicated. Regraded Unclassified 155 - 16 - We are definitely in a transition period between unbalanced and balanced Federal budgets; but I firmly believe that there is Just as much danger to our economy as a whole in moving too rapidly in this direction 8.8 there would be in not moving at all, Relatively few persons realize the striking fact that the net improvement this year in the budgetary position of the Federal Government as estimated will amount to more than two billion dollars. In other words, the net deficit this year is estimated at less than seven hundred millions as compared with more than two billion seven hundred millions last year. This net improvement of more than two billion dollars in a single year provides the best answer to those who, in most cases ignorant of the true facts, have publicly despaired of our ability to balance the Federal budget. Regraded Unclassified 156 - 17 - True, much of this year's anticipated budgetary improvement comes from increased revenue, but we are supplementing this by also seeking reductions in expenditures. In addition to these considerations, I should like to point out that, as a result of the Social Security Act and related State laws, it is estimated that the Federal Government next year will receive more than one billion dollars net for investment in Government securities for the Unemployment Trust Fund and the Old-Age Reserve Account. Although this investment will not change the total amount of the public debt, it will with a balanced budget result in the transfer to these reserve accounts of more than a billion dollars of Government obligations now held by private investors. Even during the decade of the Twenties, when the Treasury was receiving large payments of interest and Regraded Unclassified 157 - 18 - principal on war debts, and from the sale of surplus war materials, the maximum reduction made in any single year in the public debt held by private investors was about one billion three hundred millions. The rate at which it is safe to reduce the public debt in private hands depends upon the rate at which private funds flow into investment channels. It is unsafe to go too fast. Although we are not contemplating any increase in the total tax burden, the character of our tax structure 18 being given earnest consideration. The Federal tax system affects every one in the country. We in the Treasury in studying tax problems have two objectives always before us: First, that the tax burden shall be distributed as fairly as possible, and second, that the collection of taxes shall be as little burdensome to the taxpayer as possible. Regraded Unclassified 158 - 19 - It is with these aims that, by direction of the President, we have been reviewing the whole tax structure in the last few months and are just now in the process of presenting to a committee of Congress the information we have collected. The study has not been directed toward raising additional revenue. Instead, we have sought to determine whether there are inequalities and injustices in the distribution of the tax burden and whether there are some taxes whose cost of collection and whose burdensome effect outweigh the revenue gain. In addition, we want to simplify collection and make the taxpayer's record-keeping less difficult. We realize that our tax laws are too complicated; we want to make them less 80. We realize that there are inequities; we want to eliminate as many of them as we can. Regraded Unclassified 159 - 20 - In making this study, we have invited the assistance and the advice of groups of taxpayers and of individuals. We want to hear the taxpayer's side of the story. We want all the facts we can get and we have obtained both facts and opinions. Our tax revenues come largely from individual earnings and business profits. We do not wish to impose levies which tend to dry up the sources of tax revenue. The laws should be so written and administered that the taxpayer can continue to make a reasonable profit with a minimum of interference from his own Federal Government; provided that the taxpayer cooperates with his Government in carrying out the purpose and the spirit of the tax laws. Of course, tax policy cannot properly be determined from exceptional cases. We must look at the whole picture. We base our decisions on extensive information and upon analysis of actual tax records. Regraded Unclassified 180 - 21 - The amount of our income-tax revenue is only about half our total internal revenue. Less than three million people out of our total population pay individual Federal income taxes. We would be applying the principle of capacity to pay more Justly if we were to reduce the number of consumer taxes and at the same time to increase the number of income tax payers. Taxpayers who are squarely confronted with their own tax burdens are bound to be keenly alive to the way the money is being spent by their Government. The budget now nearing completion is predicated on a definite estimate of receipts, based on the existing tax structure. It is a cardinal point of our policy that the tax system, as revised, must not yield a smaller return for 1939 than the present system would yield. We want to adjust inequalities and remedy defects in the tax laws. In doing this, we have sought the help of Regraded Unclassified 161 - 22 - the taxpayer and have given him a sympathetic hearing. If we find that the operation of any particular tax 1s unfair, we stand ready to say 80 publicly. My object this evening has been to present, as clearly and as frankly 8.8 I know how, a comprehensive picture of Federal expenditures and the budgetary outlook. I have tried to make plain the underlying economic reasons, as well as the humanitarian ones, for the past deficits; and I have tried to bring out clearly the considerations that now demand further definite steps toward 8. balanced Federal budget. I have shown why, in my opinion, this balance should be sought by a reduction in expenditures without an increase in the total of the tax burden. But I have also shown that there is a limit to reductions; and that balancing of budgets needs the help of industry to keep up Regraded 162 - 23 - total tax receipts unless we are again to resort to deficit financing. The principal aims of our budgetary policy have been, and I hope will continue to be, to promote a high level and healthy character of business activity, 8. maximum volume of employment at good wages in private industry, a reasonable return to capital and enterprise, fair treatment for our agricultural population, and adequate revenues to meet the services now demanded of the Federal Government. The attainment of these ends rests very greatly on private initiative and on the cooperation of private enterprise. This is a necessary supplement to any efforts which the Government can put forth. This Administration 18 going to do everything possible to promote a continuation of recovery and to balance the budget through cutting expenditures. But I wish to emphasize that in no event Regraded Unclassified 163 - 24 - will this Administration allow anyone to starve, nor will it abandon its broad purpose to protect the weak, to give human security and to seek a wider distribution of our national income. We are confident that, with the full cooperation of the business world, our present difficulties will be overcome; and that the aims that I have set forth above, which are properly those of private business as well as those of the National Government, will be achieved. Regraded Unclassified 164 UPM DRAFT 101037 FOR SECRETARY'S SPEECH 111037 Mr. Chairman, Senator Byrd, Members and guests of the Academy: You have asked me to speak to you tonight about the "Expenditures of the Federal Government." I note that your discussions this morning included an address on the budget of the United States during the past ten years. This afternoon you considered whether our present income will meet our present expenditures. I suspect your conclusion was that if current income is less than current outgo, we must either spend less or tax more. Perhaps you think we should do both. In any consideration of the expenditures of the Federal Government, the most important concern to me as Regraded Unclassified 165 - 2 - Secretary of the Treasury has to do with the amount to be spent over the coming period of at least two or three years. Estimates are now being prepared for the expendi- tures of the fiscal year 1939, ending June 30th of that year. What is the trend going to be, both as respects the total of our expenditures and its relationship to tax receipts? That is of great interest to me, and I am sure it is of great interest to you. During the last four fiscal years, the Federal Government has spent over thirty-one billion dollars. Its total revenue during the same four years, derived for the most part from taxes, has been sixteen billion dollars. The budget deficit for four years of operation reached a total of fifteen billion dollars on June 1st of this year -- four months ago. The current fiscal year will Regraded Unclassified 166 - 3 - add another half billion to that total. It will increase the total still more if the Congress adds other appro- priations and other expenses to those already authorized. In every successive year from 1927 to 1937, with one single exception, the expenditures of the Federal Government have increased over those of the preceding year. (For the purpose of this statement the bonus pre- payments of last year and this are excluded from the figures, as is debt retirement.) Let us hastily run through the totals: 1927 - 2 billion 8 1928 - 2 billion 9 1929 - 3 billion 1 1930 - 3 billion 3 1931 - 3 billion 6 1932 - 4 billion 7 1933 - 4 billion 6 1934 - 6 billion 7 Regraded Unclassified 167 - 4 - 1935 - 6 billion 8 1936 - 6 billion 8 1937 - 7 billion 4 An editorial writer in the Evening Sun at Baltimore has formulated what he calls the Smoot Law of Government Costs, which is to the effect that regardless of the Party which may happen to be in power, the cost of govern- ment always rises. The history of the last decade, at least, would seem to bear this out. It is frequently said that the way to reduce ex- penditures is to reduce them. You know as well as I do that it is easier said than done. I suspect your discussion this afternoon of Vested Interests in Government Spending brought out important angles of that situation. Each sec- tion and each group -- I almost said each individual -- wants total costs reduced, but not the costs of things of Regraded Unclassified 168 - 5 - local interest. A business leader of the Southwest recently spoke in bitter condemnation of the Government public buildings program only to conclude with a guilty grin and the confession that he had joined the week before in a local Chamber of Commerce petition to Wash- ington for the erection of a Federal building in his own city. Where is there a city that will fail to object if reducing Government costs means closing a CCC camp in the neighborhood? What are we spending in the current fiscal year? What we call regular operating expenditures will total three and a quarter billion dollars. Nearly a billion dollars of this is being paid out in interest on the public debt. There can be no reduction there, except as we reduce the debt, and even then there is always the Regraded Unclassified 169 - 6 - possibility that rising rates will keep the total interest charge at about the same figure. Nearly a billion dollars of the 1938 budget goes for national defense. In the face of world conditions of today, can we make substantial cuts there? More than half a billion is being spent. for veterans' pensions and bene- fits -- and this figure does not include bonus payments. There can be no cut there. The only other item included among regular operating expenditures 1s the administrative costs of the Congress, the Federal Courts, and the Executive branch. This totals eight hundred million dollars. Some savings is being made here, and perhaps more can be saved. But that total is not excessive in comparison with past years, certainly not so when we consider the greatly expanded Governmental or- ganization and overhead costs. Regraded Unclassified 170 - 7 - Public works account for nine hundred million of the current budget. And there has already been appro- priated in addition to this amount another seven hundred million for public buildings, public highways, river and harbor improvements, flood control, PWA grants, soil erosion, emergency housing, and similar purposes. That means that without another dollar being appropriated by the Congress for these purposes, there will be available seven hundred million to be spent in 1939 (and later years). During the current year there is being spent more than a billion and six hundred million dollars for the relief of unemployment and for the operation of the CCC camps. How much can that be reduced in subsequent years? Regraded Unclassified 171 - 8 - The Agricultural Adjustment (Soil Conservation (?)) program, the Social Security program and some minor mis- cellaneous items add one billion four hundred million to the expenditures of the current year. While these are partly offset by special taxes, they include certain items of expenditures and grants which are not so offset. They add & permanent burden to the budget of two hundred million next year, and in the course of the next few years five hundred million annually which is not offset by special taxes. What may drought, flood, business recession, or war add to the expenditures of this and coming years? It is obvious that no matter how great our desire to reduce the cost of Government, there will be the greatest difficulty Regraded Unclassified 172 - 9 - in making substantial reductions in regular or emergency costs. Here is a wheel to which we must all put our shoulders. For I am confident that you are in agreement with me as to the necessity for promptly bringing our expendi- tures within our income, -- and well within it, -- 80 that not only will the budget be balanced, but our total debt reduced. (Leaving out of consideration gold acquisitions, the debt in the hands of the public will be reduced in the current fiscal year by more than a billion dollars.) As Secretary of the Treasury I must not speak to you with too great assurance about future expenditures of the Government. The Treasury does not determine how much 173 - 10 - money is to be spent or how it shall be divded among the various agencies and functions. The President and the Congress have that responsibility. In the final analysis, it is determined by the people. As you know, there are 1 some who think Government expenditures have been too small rather than too large. The Treasury does not spend the money, except the sums appropriated for its own administrative expenses. Its function is to raise the money which other agencies spend. Naturally enough, however, the fiscal department of the Gove mment has some participation in and some re- sponsibility for the determination of total costs. I do not seek to shirk that responsibility. We must collect the taxes and adjust the tax burden fairly. We must know Regraded Unclassified 174 - 11 - the needs and the temper of the market through which we borrow. Together with the Federal Reserve System we must guard and protect the value of the American dollar. For after all, in my view, dollar control is fully as important as crop control, or wages control, or hour control. The effects of the others are determined by the value of the dollar. Its value determines the farmers income or the industrial workers income just as surely as does control of production or control of working conditions. Of what account is a high price for farm products if the dollars paid are of less value. What a hollow victory is a high wage if paid in currency of low buying power. May it not very well be that more important than any of these things is a sound financial program for the coming years which will prevent any possibility of the dollar becoming unstable? Regraded Unclassified 175 - 12 - I do not insist that the budget be balanced every year. I do not agree with those who deplore the expendi- tures that this Government has made. They had to be made. Fortunate is he who accumulates a surplus in good times to carry him over bad times. But the unbalanced budget and increase in debt 1s familiar to us in our individual lives as well as in business life. The young lawyer or doctor or dentist may go into debt for his education and to get his practice started. The farmer may borrow to buy his land, his machinery, and his seed. The new business enterprise goes into debt that it may expand and wisely grow. The head of a family will even incur a debt of staggering proportions if it is nec- essary to save the lives of members of his family. Regraded Unclassified 176 - 13 - I see no reason for defending or apologizing for the expenditures of past years. Intelligent men recog- nize that they were vital. I see no reason for harboring regrets about the purposes of the expenditures or the way in which the money was spent. For the most part, we have spent wisely and well. Some of the expenditures of recent years are re- coverable. They went for loans to various agencies and groups, and for capital stock in credit agencies and in- stitutions. Our expenditure picture is going to be brightened by the winding up of many of these agencies. There is considerable molasses in some of those barrels. We shall scrape them well, and then break up the barrels so there will not be any temptation to fill them up again. Regraded Unclassified 177 - 14 - The expenditure of two and a quarter billion for the bonus would have been made in 1945 if it had not been made now. (The amount of an advance payment is frequently carried by a business concern as an asset.) Our net deficit might have been less if we had done two things we did not do. To me these negative actions are as significant as any of our positive accom- plishments. We have not used the major portion of the gold increment. It is still available for debt retirement. Even more important, in my opinion, we have not resorted to the use of greenbacks for the payment of current debt. Not a dollar of the authorized three million of so-called Thomas currency has been issued. There are other reassuring items to brighten some- what the black picture I have painted. Total expenditures Regraded 178 - 15 - are turning downward. With the exception of an almost negligible decrease in 1933 costs under those of 1932, the current fiscal year is the first since 1927 when Government expenditures were less than the preceding year. (If we include bonus payment, 1937 showed a de- cline and 1938 a still further decline.) The coming fiscal year should show a further reduction. Moreover, our income is rising. It has increased every year since 1932. Let us run over the figures here also: 1932 2 billion 006 1933 2 billion 080 1934 3 billion 116 1935 3 billion 8 1936 4 billion 1 1937 5 billion 2 1938 6 billion 7 Regraded Unclassified 179 - 16 - With increased business activity and a higher national income, naturally tax receipts grow. Improve- ments in the revenue laws has also contributed to this growth in receipts. We have reached the place, it seems evident to me, where our costs must be met out of current taxes. That means that instead of fixing our expenditures and borrowing the excess over revenue, we determine what is 8 fair and just tax burden and then squeeze expenditures within that figure. The young professional student who borrowed to pay for his education meets failure unless his practice pays well enough for him to wipe out his debt. The farmer is in distress if his crop does not bring him enough to Regraded Unclassified 180 - 17 - pay for his seed, his production costs, and reduce the mortgage. The new business enterprise goes on the rocks if its sales do not permit the gradual retirement of its -- bonds or its floating debt. The householder becomes dis- couraged if his debt for the health of his family becomes a permanent saddle. I do not mean to suggest that there is an exact parallel between these individuals and concerns and the Federal Government. Perhaps we can carry a permanent debt of considerable size. But the Government that con- tinues too long with income above outgo is as surely headed for disaster as is the individual or corporation. The President of the United States recognizes that. He Regraded Unclassified 181 - 18 - has stated it time and again. In 1932 he declared that liberal governments too often were wrecked on the rocks of financial excess. (Check statement and date.) In his 1937 budget message the President stated his belief that "it is the deficit of today that is making possible the surplus of tomorrow." In his last budget message, that for fiscal 1938, the President insisted that new expendi- tures authorized by Congress be matched by new revenue. He is taking effective action to bring costs within income. A percentage of appropriations is being impounded. Emer- gency agencies are being liquidated, stopping administra- tive expenses and restoring assets to the Treasury. The promise is being performed. Regraded Inclassified 182 - 19 - This does not mean at all that human needs are to be ignored or national development neglected. Never in the history of our country has there been as adequate and far-seeing a program for the development of natural resources as there is today. Never in our history has there been the provision that is now a permanent part of our plans for the future of the unemployed, the under- privileged and the sick. As we advance, these things will be improved. There is much to be done that we cannot do, certainly not all at once. To continue longer with an unbalanced Treasury budget would endanger the whole program -- what has been done and what remains to be done. The way to balanced economy and 8. more abundant life is not to be found through an unbalanced Federal budget. oo0oo Regraded Unclassified 183 Various tabulated material used in connection with writing the Secretary's speech for the Academy of Political Science. Regraded Actual expenditures of the Government for fiscal years 1926-1937 (Classifications include expenditures from both general and emergency funds) 184 (In willions of dollars) 2 Total I Total I Total : Aggregate I 1926-1929 I 1930-1933 I 1934-1937 2 1926-1937 Regular operating expenditures: Legislative, judicial and civil establishments 2,816.0 3,256.7 2,749.1 8,821.5 National defense 2,466.8 2,775.9 3,096.9 8,339.6 Veterans' pensions and benefits (excluding bonus prepayment) 2,829.3 3,541.1 2,415.2 5,785.6 Interest on the public debt 3,029.0 2,559.6 3,193.3 8,781.9 Total 11,141.1 12,133.3 11,454.5 34,728.9 Public works: Public buildings 47.1 303.1 281.0 631.2 Public highways 377.9 651.8 1,179.7 2,209.4 Rivers and harbors 292.0 463.0 512.5 1,567.5 PEA (grants and admin. expenses) - - 574.6 574.6 Other 31.7 76.4 362.0 470.1 Total 748.7 1,494.3 3,209.8 5,452.8 Unesployment relieft Direct relief - 350.7 3,355.4 3,706.1 - - Work relief 3,977.5 3,977.5 Civilian Conservation Corps - - 1,639.5 1,639.5 Total - 350.7 8,972,4 9,323.1 - Agricultural adjustment program - 2,098.7 2,098.7 Social Security - - 476.2 476.2 - - Miscellaneous 36.6 36.6 Total nonrecoverable expenditures (excluding bonns and debt retirement) 11,889.8 13,978.3 26,248.2 52,116.3 Loans (net) 5.6 1,666.2 456.9 2,128.7 Subscriptions to capital stock 6.0 737.7 1,089.7 1,833.4 Total expenditures (excluding borns and debt retirement) 11,901.4 16,382.2 27,794.8 56,078.4 Bomns prepayment - - 2,230.2 2,230.2 Debt retirement 2,096.9 1,868,2 1,440.7 5,405.8 Total expenditures 13,998.3 18,250.4 31,465.7 Regraded Unclassified 185 Actual expenditures of the Government for fiscal years 1926-1929 (Classifications include expenditures from both general and emergency funds) (In millions of dollars) : 1926 -- 1927 : 1928 : 1929 : Total Regular operating expenditures: Ingislative, judicial and civil establishments 666.9 589.4 708.6 851.1 2,816.0 National defense 579.7 584.4 624.6 678.1 2,466.8 Veterans' pensions and benefits (excluding borrus prepayment) 650.5 721.8 723.9 733.1 2,829.3 Interest on the public debt 831.9 787.0 731.8 678.3 3,029.0 Total 2,729.0 2,682.6 2,788.9 2,940.5 11,141.1 Public Works: Public buildings 2.1 7.8 6.7 30.5 47.1 Public highways 98.8 92.5 91.1 95.5 377.9 Rivers and harbors 70.3 65.4 72.9 83.4 292.0 - - PEA (grants and admin. expenses) - - - Other 3.4 5.2 9.5 10.5 31.7 Total 174.6 173.9 180.2 220.0 748.7 Unemployment relief: - - Mrect relief - - - - - - - Work relief - Civilian Conservation Corps - - - - - - - - - Total - - - - - - Agricultural adjustment program Social Security - - - - - Miscellaneous - - - - - Total nonrecoverable expenditures (excluding bonus and debt retirement) 2,903.6 2,856.5 2,969.1 3,160.6 11,889.8 Loans (net) - - - 5.6 5.6 Subscriptions to capital stock - 1.0 - 5.0 6.0 Total excenditures (excluding bonus and debt retirement) 2,903.6 2,857.5 2,969.1 3,171.2 11,901.4 Bonue Prepayment - - - I # Debt retirement 487.4 519.6 540.3 549.6 2,06.4 Total expenditures 3,391.0 3,377.1 3,509.4 3,720.8 13,996.3 Regraded Unclassified Actual expenditures of the Government for fiscal years 1910-1933 (Classifications include expenditures from both general and emergency funds) 163 (In millions of dollars) : : : : 1930 : 1931 : 1932 : 1933 : Total Regular operating empenditures: Legialntive, judicial end civil establishments 789.5 790.9 978.8 697.5 3,256.7 National defense 701.3 699.2 707.6 667.8 2,775.9 Veterans' pensions and benefits (excluding bonus prepayments) 753.5 939.6 984.8 863.2 3,541.1 Interest on the public debt 659.3 611.6 599.3 689.4 2,559.6 Total 2,903.6 3,041.3 3,270.5 2,917.9 12,133.3 Public works: Public buildings 43.0 67.7 86.5 105.9 303.1 Public highways 89.3 174.4 209.9 178.2 651.8 Rivers and harbors 106.5 121.3 116.8 118.4 463.0 PMA (grants and admin. expenses) - - - - - Other 11.0 13.9 26.3 25.2 76.4 Total 249.8 377.3 439.5 427.7 1,494.3 Unemployment relief: Direct relief - - - 350.7 350.7 Work relief - - - - - Civilian Conservation Corps - - - - - Total - - - 350.7 350.7 Agricultural adjustment program - - - - - Social Security - - i - 1 - Miscellaneous - - - - - Total nonrecoverable expenditures (excluding bonus and debt retirement) 3,153.4 3,418.6 3,710.0 3,696.3 13,978.3 Loans (net) 154.8 233.0 404.0 874.4 1,666.2 Subscriptions to capital stock - - 627.0 110.7 737.7 Total excenditures (excluding bonus and debt retirement) 3,308.2 3,651.6 4,741.0 4,681.4 16,332.2 Bonus Prepayment - I - I I Debt retirement ! 553.9 440.1 412.6 461.6 1,868.2 Total expenditures 3,862.1 4,091.7 5,153.6 5,143.0 Regraded Unclassified 187 Actual expenditures of the Government for fiscal years 1934-1937 (Classifications include expenditures from both general and emergency funds) (In millions of dollars) : : : : : 1934 1935 1936 1937 Total : : : : : Regular operating expenditures: Legislative, judicial and civil establishments 572.5 597.7 781.1 797.8 2,749.1 National defense 540.3 709.9 911.6 935.1 3,096.9 Veterans' pensions and benefits (excluding bonus prepayment) 556.9 607.1 677.9 573-3 2,415.2 Interest on the public debt 756.6 820.9 749.4 866.4 3,193.3 Total 2,426.3 2,735.6 3,120.0 3,172.6 11,454,5 Public works: Public buildings 78.7 58.1 67.9 76.3 281.0 Public highways 267.9 317.3 243.9 350.6 1,179.7 Rivers and harbors 150.8 203.0 223.7 235.0 812.5 per (grants and admin. expenses) 18.8 48.9 233.9 273.0 574.6 Other 35.7 77.0 99.3 150.0 362,0 Total 551.9 704.3 868.7 1,084.9 3,209.8 Unemployment relief: Direct relief 715.8 1,914.1 591.7 133.8 3,355.4 Work relief 805.1 11.3 1,264.4 1,896.7 3.977.5 Civilian Conservation Corps 331,9 435.5 486.3 385.8 1,639.5 Total 1,852.8 2,360.9 2,342.4 2,416.3 8,972.4 Agricultural adjustment program 290.3 743.0 542.6 522.8 2,098.7 Social Security - - 28.4 447.8 476.2 Miscellaneous 8.7 21,1 6.8 - 36.6 Total nonrecoverable expenditures (excluding bome and debt retirement) 5,130.0 6,564.9 6,908.9 7.644.4 26,248.2 Loans (net) 788.6 80.5 -175.2 -237.0 456.9 Subscriptions to capital stock 826.5 150.8 69.3 37.1 1,069.7 Total expenditures (excluding borras and debt retirement) 6,745.1 6,802.2 6,803.0 7,444.5 27,794.8 Bonus prepayment - - 1,673.5 556.7 2,230.2 Debt retirement 359.9 573.6 403.2 104,0 1,440.7 Total expenditures 7,105.0 7.375.6 8,879.7 5,105.2 Redraded Unclassified 188 Proprietary Interest of the United States in Governmental Corporations and Credit Agencies, as of June 30, 1929 to 1937 (In millions of dollars) : 1929 : 1030 : 1931 : 1932 : 1933 I 1934 : 1935 : 1936 I 1937 Financed wholly from Government funds: Reconstruction Finance Corp. - - - 780 1,498 2,452 2,035 1,804 1,491 Commodity Credit Corp. - - - - - 206 154 244 123 Export-import Banks - - If - - 14 14 18 17 Public Works Admin. - - - - - 145 312 152 146 Regional Agric. Credit Corp. - - - - 150 51 77 35 27 Production Credit Corp. - - - - - 106 121 121 121 Panana Railroad Co. 40 42 42 45 43 43 43 43 44 Shipping Board Merch. Fleet Corp. 210 207 217 233 224 143 182 151 87 War Emergency Agencies 14 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 Parn Loan Board - Corp. Loans 7 160 392 626 3/ - - - - Para Credit Administration - - - I 556 74 193 175 191 Inland Waterways Corp. 20 21 24 24 25 2 24 24 25 25 Railroad Obligations 62 55 40 39 38 38 31 30 30 Tennessee Valley Authority - - - - 1 2 64 96 179 Subsistence Homestends (R.A.) - - - - - 3 24 80 128 Federal Housing Administration 1 - - - - - 20 30 30 R. F. C. Mortgage Corp. - - - - - - 4 18 48 Rural Electrification Administration - 1 1 - - - - 12 Other - - - - - 1 5 6 14 Total Group 1 353 496 725 1,759 2,544 3,319 3,317 3,038 2,721 Financed partly from Government and partly from private funds: Federal Land Banks 4 4 4 125 125 161 251 256 292 Federal Intermediate Credit Banks 32 35 34 36 50 85 84 103 104 Federal Farm Mortgage Corp. - - - - - 197 206 201 177 Banks for Oboperatives # - - 1 - 111 129 156 154 Home Loan Banks - - - I 43 81 82 100 121 Home Owners Loan Corp. - - - - 1 144 70 13 68 Federal Savings & Loan Insurance Corp. - - - - - - 102 104 106 Federal Savings & Loan Associations - - - I - 1 32 102 48 Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. - - - - - 150 150 150 150 War Finance Corp. 1 1 1 1 1 4/ 4/ Total Group 2 33 34 35 162 230 930 1,106 1,185 1,222 Grand Total 386 530 750 1,921 2,774 4,249 4,423 4,223 3,943 1 Source: Armual Report of the Secretary of the Treasury, 19361 Daily Treasury Statement, July 31, 1937. Estimated. 3/ Transferred F.C.A. 4/ Less than one million. seveires Daily Treasury - (In willims of dellare) July and July - 1937 -- compared with 1934 August August 1937 1956 Increase Decrease GENERAL AND SPECIAL ACCOUNTS Receipts: Internal revenue: Income tax 4 92.5 71.2 6 81.3 * - Missellanemas internal 500.1 454.7 07.4 - Unjust enrichment sex .6 I .6 - Taxes under Social Security Act 118.5 I 113.5 - Taxes upon carriers and their employees .1 - -1 - Qualque 19.4 66.3 19.1 - Niscellameous receipts: Proceets of securities: Printipal-fereign obligations I - - - obligations - I I - All other 18.2 12.8 6.0 - Passan Count tolls, atc. 4.2 : I - Asigniarage 7.8 9.1 - L.# Other missellansous SL.7 9.1 10.0 I Total receipts 062.6 636.9 MED.T 1 Agentitures: I. General: Departmental 100.5 14.2 8.4 - Public buildings 7.6 8.1 4.0 - Penise highways 38.5 14.7 17.0 - River and harber work m4 flood control 28.9 17.7 11.8 - Reclamation projects 6,1 - 4.1 - Panama Camal 2.5 2.0 a - Festal deficiency 9.4 1.5 4.9 - Railroad Retinees Ast .9 a , I Social Security Act 46.6 25.5 81.1 - Distriet of Columbia (U.S. share) 5.0 5.0 - - National defense: Any 67.8 64.8 1,3 I Havy 90,3 97.6 18.9 - Telenues' Administration 07.1 96.4 , - Agrioultural Adjustment Program 36.7 57.4 I 30,9 Civilian Conservation Corps 63.2 25,8 59.4 - Farm Credit 1.1 J 3.0 1 - Telephone Valley Authority 7.0 5.8 1.1 - Interest - the public debt 22,0 55.6 - a.e Refunds: Customs 2.4 1.8 - -4 Internal 0.0 4.8 - L# Processing tax on farm products ,9 A .5 - Subtotal 547.0 883.1 113.0 - II, Recevery and relief: Agricultural AS&I Federal landbanks 9.9 11.0 - LA Relief .8 49.2 - 44,4 Public works {imiluding work relief): Realamation projects 5.4 3,5 1.9 - Public highways 19.5 61.7 I 42.1 River and harber work and flood control 6.8 88.4 I 81.8 Rural Elastrification Administration 4.2 .7 5.5 - Notice Progress Administration 238,0 314.7 - 19,9 All other 44.1 67.7 - a.e A14 to home ownered Las loas system 1.8 a.5 - 1.0 Assergency housing 11.4 4.9 4.5 - Federal Breating Administration 8.6 2.3 ,3 - Reserviment Administration 52.2 23.4 8.0 - 373.4 270.9 I 199.0 m. Revolving funds (not): 13C Agricultural aid: 47 Commity Credit Corporation 1 in a 66.4 60.5 - Farm Credit Administration de 5.9 2 5.7 I a Page is write: incure sal grasts to States, municipalities, etc. 37.2 60.4 - a.s loss to reilmeds à .1 :- I - Miscallameous: Report-laport Bank of Washington a .1 : .9 + - Finance Corporation--direst loans and expenditions , n., a 150.0 198.0 I Oubtotal 8.1 a 226.9 833.0 I Total eash ourgeing 1008.0 077.1 151.4 - IT. Transfers se trut swemie, etc.: 014-age passerve - 65.0 - 85.0 - Ballrood retirement account 30.0 I m.o - Adjusted service surtificate fund I 35.8 I N.O General employees' nitrest the (Datted share) 15.8 45.7 2 - Subtotal 184.2 06.0 99.7 - V. Debt (staking has, etc.) - 83.1 I a: Total 1814.9 i THE - of receipts - - - - Byness of qualities THE 265.7 4.4 I 1 bas credits, debet. - - Register 4, 1997 Regraded ssified 190 983-A September 20, 1937 STATEMENT OF THE PRESIDENT ON SEPTEMBER 21, 1937. The President announced today that he had just approved the allotment of & few border-line applications for PWA projects, which increases the number allotted under the new program to 1,253 projects, amounting to $113,034.735 in grants and $58,005.700 in loans. This concludes the allotment of projects under the Public Works Administration Extension Act of 1937. The President said that Administrator Ickes has withheld recommonding for approval a large number of projects which have been passed by the examining divisions of the Public Works Administra- tion because it was found that the applicant could finance the proj- ect without Federal aid. Considering the need to curtail the Federal Budget and the improved financial status of so many communities throughout the United States, the President said he believes this to be sound public policy. The limitations on the amount that may be allotted in the several categories under the new law has resulted in disappointment to many applicants because the total of applications filed greatly exceeded the limitations in some categories, which made it necessary for the Public Works Administration to select a limited number of applications for allotment. This situation was inevituble because the grant allotments requested on approved appli- cations in hand amounted to $609,096,573 covering 4,315 projects and the appropriation was sufficient for only a fraction of them. "We have tried to apply equitable principles", the President stated. He pointed out that the Public Works Administration was established to stimulate construction and employment during the de- pression and that it fulfilled its mission promptly and effectively, Under the various programs since 1933, allotments have been made for 10,605 useful non-Federal Public Works Administration projects cost- ing $2,759,172,739. Of these projects, 7,845 costing $1,208,539,612 have been completed, creating to date 661,088,747 man-hours of direct employment on the project sites. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has found that for each hour of employment at the site, two and one-half hours of employment are created in industry. Because allotments for so many projects have recently been announced, it has not been pos- sible to compile an estimate of the employment that will be created by the remainder. of the program but there is every reason to expect that it will be proportionate to that of the past. There has been a decreasing need for this stimulation with the passing of the economic extremity and the President feels that the Administration has fulfilled Its obligation under the present law. 191 20: 200 Secretary From: Secton Subject: Social Security ?unds and the Budget gyer 81900 the President's budget came out last January various business and : services have been calling attention to the great debt retirement porsibilities in the Social Security trust funds and the added fact that from the notual cash income and cash outgo basis we would probably have a surplus in this flacal year even though the budget would not be balanced on any booksceeping basis. This expectation is supported by the budget sumation, which scows: "at estimated deficit 695 millions Old age reserve account special investment 425 Unemployment trust fund receipts (astimated in annual report) 576 if Total trust funds 1001 N Cash surplus 306 millions What this means 1s that of the total of expenditures (not including debt retirement) of 7,346 millions, going to maice up the deficit of 695 millions, toore is an amount of 425 millions for the old age reserve account which is not or. actual cash exponditure but a book-keeping transaction consisting of the Lieus of special 3 $ securities in this amount, leaving the cash in the Treasury. The unemuloyment trust fund receipts do not appear in the budget receipts or impenditures, but they do appear in the trust fund and public debt divisions of the Daily Treasury Statement. The Treasury receives the cash from the states and wate it in the General Fund after issung special 20% securities for it. It has the BATE bookkeeping effect as the sale of bonds in that amount. So the fact is that althous we have a net deficit (or expect to have) this your of 695 millions, we are in fact receiving from the public 306 millions more than we expect to pay out. Ignoring gold sterilization, this amount would be available in cash to retire the same amount of public debt held by the banks and private investors. If we had been able to achieve the "layman's balance" that the President talked about earlier in the year we should have had more than a billion dollars ($1,001 millions) available for this purpose--again ignoring gold steril- instion. If you wished to limit debt retirement next year to these Social Security and of more than a billion dollars it would mean simply arriving at a bookkeeping balance of revenue and expenditure with no deficit and no surplus. In other words, it would mean increase in revenue and/or decrease in expenditures amounting on 20th sides to 595 millions. I have not seen any late estimates, but it is probable (2) 192 currented will increase this such (if rates stay the DATE and tre don't have a roal ogression) so that wethout any dicrease in expenditures we could still do the trick. In an undertain state of the national economy there is something to be said for mach - decision. The fact is that we are withdrawing in the form of taxes on carrolin (mmployers and employees) in this fiscal year. according to estimates, $1,182,035,000 and we are paying out in expenses and grants to states for social security only $182,759,000, making almost an even billion that we are taking out of possible constrytion expenditure 00 this account. This must certainly be B. far heavier yes to recovery and D. far heavier deflationary action than the undistributed profits tax 05 the increases in income tax rates. THE justification for doing this is that in the Social Security Act we have obligations which are accruing right now and that we must nace provision No to but them in the future. We do this by reducing the debt in the hands of the erblic to the amount of the contributions to the reserve funds, 80 that as the new special SM increases the old general debt decreases, so that we won't have a Bouble losá of liability in the future. The effect is just the same as if a private corporation were the custodian of these fundo and invested them in government securities. Too government as custodian can find no better or safer investment for 140 Date than to issue its own obligations and use the cash to reduce its own debt, you itself in position to meet the obligations when they fall due. I: 14 Seen subjested by a good many people that it would have a better effect X or extional sconomy if the necessary revenue to reduce the public dobt quickly and 1216 got the government in position to met the social security In the future were rained by general lazation instead of by the payroll class. 2000 people suggest higher income tax rates as the right answer. The objection urged against this is that now we are taxing only the people who are to be benefitied (this in fact in not quite true) and that if we taxed everybody ac And ave to spread the benefits more widoly--teice in everybody who may need minust, old age and unexployment help in the future. I Intrik you suggested that it would be better bookkeeping If Social Security new out of the general fund and we budgeted only the annual Social SECURITY inficit. The difficulty with doing this is that, in order to make the law the taxes were not levied for the special purpose of social security, Ent 45 Onezal laxation which cust 00 into the general fund. 5 il , It LTV taxing 306 millions in cash more from the public than WE are paying out 1: 1345 fiscal year (1938). This 19 a big jung from Inst year, when we paid put at 10015 two billions more than we took in. sugmeta a very careful examination of bow much we should increase this M cast: 1-take next year. A "Isyman" kiknass balance" would mean that we would take in Nous a billion more than we pay out-maybe as much as e billion And n. quarter, NB Unclassified 193 September 22, 1937. MEMORANDUM FOR MR. BAILEY: With respect to your inquiry as to the expenditures of the Resettlement Administration, particularly the excess of expendi- tures in August, 1937, over the corresponding month for 1936, you are advised that the program of the Administration reached a peak during the last four months of the fiscal year 1937 and started to decline in the present fiscal year. There will be 8 gradual decline in expenditures during the remaining months and it is anticipated that the total for this year will be about $135,000,000 as compared to approximately $210,000,000 in the past fiscal year. The following statement shows the monthly expenditures from the high point in March, 1937 to and including August: March $29.9 M April 29.6 M May 22.8 M June 21.2 M July 19.2 M August 13.0 M The expenditures for the first 18 days of September are $6.2 M or about 75% of the expenditures for the same period in the month of August, indicating the continuation of the decline. At the present time the Administration has an unexpended balance of $89.4 M and additional allocations will be made to complete programs now under way amounting to $ 50.0 M, which will leave an unexpended Regraded Unclassified 194 - 2 - balance at the end of the fiscal year of approximately $40.0 M. With respect to the increase in expenditures of Public Works Administration for loans and grants to States for the month of August, 1937, over the month of August, 1936, you will realize that these expenditures are on a net basis. The actual payments for the month of August, 1936, were $33.9 M, offset by repayments through liquidation of assets of $18.0 M, leaving & net expendi- ture of $15.9 M. For the month of August, 1937, the actual ex- penditures were $19.6 M, while repayments through liquidation of assets amounted to only $1.6 M, leaving a net expenditure of $18.0 M. It can be readily seen, therefore, that there has been a decline of $14.3 M. in the expenditures of the Public Works Administration. There has also been a decline of $16.4 M in repayments. These re- payments are almost entirely through bond sales to the Reconstruc- tion Finance Corporation. Two factors ordinarily govern the disposi- tion of these bonds - first, the needs of the Public Works Administra- tion for additional funds for the purpose of obligation, and, second, the type of bonds which the Public Works Administration holds in its portfolio. The Reconstruction Finance Corporation takes such bonds as are considered readily marketable. On August 31, 1937, Public Works Administration had on hand bonds to the value of $128.8 M, while the Reconstruction Finance Corporation held $86.8 W worth of securities. AOL 195 BUREAU OF THE BUDGET WASHINGTON Rept 22, 1937 MEMORAN DUM FOR THE SECRETARY: The following tabulation indicates the amount made available by Congress for grants for Public Works Admini- stration non-Federal projects from funds received from the sale of securities and projects approved by the President through September 20, 1937. Public Works Administration Amount Grants authorized under ERA of 1936 $300,000,000 Additional grants authorized under PWA Extension Act of 1937 59,000,000 Total made available for grants $359,000,000 Projects approved by the President Under ERA of 1936 to 6/30/37 $163,604,913 Under PWA Extension Act to 9/20/37 113,168,756 276,773,669 Balance $ 82,226,331 Less Administrative Expenses 1938 15,000,000 Available for additional projects and administration after 1938 $ 67,226,331 Acting Administrative Frienday Assistant. Regraded 196 September 24, 1937. MEMORANIUM FOR MR. BAILEY: The balance of funds standing to the credit of the Public Works Administration is entirely obligated. To meet obliga- tions under the program which the President has approved, it will be necessary to supplement the existing balance of P.W.A. funds by the sale of $61,000,000 of the total amount of $129,000,000 of bonds held by P.W.A. It will also be necessary to sell bonds in the amount of about $8,000,000 to provide funds for administrative expenses for the fiscal year 1939. Just how much of the remaining $60,000,000 in bonds can be converted into cash during 1938 could not be estimated with out an examination of the portfolio of the Public Works Admin- istration. Some of these securities are readily marketable; others by reason of the small size of the issue are only salable locally in the community where the project is under way: still others are payable from revenue produced by the project for the construction of which they are issued. This latter group could not be considered readily marketable until the project has been completed and begins to bring in revenue, and some of these projects will not be completed during the current fiscal year. If the $60,000,000 in bonds is sold to the Reconstruction Finance Corporation, the cash would be deposited to the credit of the Public Works Administration. However, unless the Re- construction Finance Corporation is able to dispose of these bonds the total of Government expenditures would not be affected, since Reconstruction Finance Corporation expenditures would in- crease in the same amount as the Public Works Administration NI- penditures were reduced by application of the proceeds of the sale to the Reconstruction Finance Corporation. The proceeds of all bonds held to maturity by the Public Works Administration must be applied to the reduction of the public debt, but this amount will be small in 1938. #13 Regraded Unclassified TIME: PRESIDENT SCOUTS - 'POLITICS' ON TOUR He Expire Schedule Risters - Mim Time States of dins - Cert Plan Consuments TELLS WING-UP OF FW4 - V Class No Prom Black - Kian, " is Misled, - He Pressure - MAY West Taley ROUTES Mr. - WHICH " PRESIDENT will. POLLOW TO AND FROM THE PACIFIC MM in Be $ ! - - If 154 in 1 i X the I - TM PRODUCTS - r - - - . I NEW YoRK TIMES 4 - - - - - will M - I 5 - SEPT 22 1937 - 7 a - F - - - I TO an the - - 7 r à w/ of to à - -- . - - - - All - à - - - I - - - le - 1: - - 1 - == Γ. A of - . and I Regraded Unclassified - - 198 September 24, 1937. MR. KIELEY: Here are two memoranda requested by the Secre- tary, in further explanation of my memorandum to him of September 22. Fisailey 199 September 24, 1937. MEMORANDUM FOR THE SECRETARY: In connection with the estimated unexpended balance of $40,000,000 under the allocations to the Para Security (Re- settlement) Administration, the estimate is based on two factors - first, the current rate of expenditure, and, second, the carry-over of unexpended balances at the close of the fis- cal year 1936. On June 30, 1937. the Resettlement Administration had out- standing unliquidated obligations in the amount of $34,000,000. It is estimated that somewhere in the neighborhood of $30,000,000 of obligations will be unliquidated on June 30, 1938, and that $10,000,000 will remain unobligated at that time. However, most of this latter amount will be needed for obligation to complete programs which will be under way during the present fiscal year. The original amount which it was estimated that Resettlement would require from the 1937 relief appropriation was reduced by about $13,000,000 which was placed in the general reserve under the relief appropriation. It was assumed that this would be the maximum saving which could be made under the Resettlement program. It will probably be as such as we can expect if we maintain the reserve now established. The cash estimate for the year, of course, was based on the assumption that this reserve would be maintained. Flailey Regraded Inclass 200 Regraded Unclassified September 22, 1937. MIMORANDUM FOR MR. BAILEY: With respect to your inquiry as to the expenditures of the Resettlement Administration, particularly the excess of expendi= tures in August, 1937, over the corresponding month for 1936, you are advised that the program of the Administration reached a peak during the last four months of the fiscal year 1937 and started to decline in the present fiscal year. There will be a gradual decline in axpenditures during the remaining months and it is anticipated that the total for this year will be about $135,000,000 as compared to approximately $210,000,000 in the past fiscal year. The following statement shows the monthly expenditures from the high point in March, 1937 to anjincluding August: March $29.9 I April 29.6 If May 22.8 If June 21.2 M July 19.2 M August 13.0 M The expenditures for the first 18 days of September are $6.2 M or about 75% of the expenditures for the same period in the month of August, indicating the continuation of the decline. At the present time the Administration has an unexpended balance of $89.4 M and additional allocations will be made to complete programs now under way amounting to $50.0 M, which will leave an unexpended 201 - 2 - balance at the end of the fiscal year of approximately $40.0 H. With respect to the increase in expenditures of Public Works Administration for loans and grants to States for the month of August, 1937, over the month of August, 1936, you will realize that these expenditures are on a net basis. The actual payments for the month of August, 1936. were $33.9 M, offset by repayments through liquidation of assets of $18.0 M, leaving a net expendi- ture of $15.9 M. For the month of August, 1937, the actual are penditures were $19.6 M. while repayments through liquidation of assets amounted to only $1.6 M. leaving a net expenditure of $18.0 M. It can be readily seen, therefore, that there has been a decline of #14.3 M, in the expenditures of the Public Works Administration. There has also been a decline of $16.4 M in repayments. These re" payments are almost entirely through bond sales to the Reconstruc- tion Finance Corporation. Two factors ordinarily govern the disposi- tion of these bonds - first, the needs of the Public Works Administra- tion for additional funds for the purpose of obligation, and,second, the type of bonds which the Public Works Administration holds in its portfolio. The Reconstruction Finance Corporation takes such bonds as are considered readily marketable. On August 31, 1937, Public Works Administration had on hand bonds to the value of $128.8 M. while the Reconstruction Finance Cerporation held $86.8 M worth of securities. Regraded Unclassified 202 September 24, 1937. MR. KIELEY: This memorandum is responsive to a request from the Secretary for suggestions as to existing Federal Corporations the continuance of which might properly be considered unnecessary. Failey Regraded Unclassified 203 September 24, 1937. MYMORANIUM: Re: Agencies which appear to have accomplished the purpose for which they were established and which might now be discontinued by Executive Order. Import-Import Bank of Washington This Agency was created by Executive Order 6581, dated February 2, 1934. By Public No. 1, approved January 31, 1935, it was recognised as an Agency of the United States. Under this Act provision was made for continuing the Corporation until June 16, 1937 or such earlier date as might be net by the President by Executive Order. Public No. 2, approved January 26, 1937 amended the Act of January 31. 1935, by strik- ing out the date June 16, 1937 and inserting in lieu thereof June 30, 1939. The authority of the President to discontinue this Agency by Executive Order still remains. The bank has never functioned as originally intended, that is, to promote and facilitate trade with the Soviet. It has engaged in the general development of foriegn trade. The volume of loans has never been very extensive and the need of continuing the Agency any longer is doubtful. The expenditures of this corporation in the present fie- cal year up to September 21 amounted to only $41,676, while receipts amounted to $173,394. Unless some real substantial reason can be found for continuing this Agency, and if there are no legal obstacles to its abolishment, the Agency should be discontinued by Executive Order and its assets transferred to the Reconstruction Finance Corporation. Electric Home and Parn Authority The present District of Columbia Corporation was authorised by Executive Order 7139, dated August 12, 1935. By Public No. 484, any proved March 31, 1936, the Corporation was continued as an Agency of the United States until February 1, 1937. Under this Act the President was authorised to discontinue the Corporation at an earlier date. By the Act of January 26, 1937. Public No. 2, the extension date was changed to June 30, 1939, but the authority of the President to discontinue the Agency at an earlier date etill remains. When the authority was first organised, its activities were con- fined to the TVA area, later when its offices were moved to Washington end since then constant efforts have been made to extend operations all over the United States. Today the Corporation is carrying paper valued at more than $4,500,000 and is operating in such cities as Fort Wayne, Indians; Lansing, Michigant Los Angeles, California: Kaness City, Kansas: Springfield, Illinois: Bartford, Connecticut, etc. The need for the continuance of this Corporation as an Agency of the United States may well be questioned. It can not very well point to any accomplishment in bringing about the reduction of interest rates Regraded Unclassified 204 - 2 - because its own rates were reduced by the elimination of certain charges in order that it might successfully compete with other financing com- panies in Los Angeles. As there is apparently no lack of facilities for financing the purchase of electrical equipment at reasonable rates it would seem that there is no sound reason why advantage should not be taken of the authority conferred on the President by the Act of March 31, 1936, and the Agency discontinued by Executive Order. If such action is taken, its assets should be transferred to the Reconstruction Finance Corporation. FiBailey Regraded 205 September 24, 1937. Ste: Agencies which appear to have accomplished the purpose for which they ware established and which might me be discontinued by Inscutive Order. Export-Import Bank of Washington This Agency - created w Executive Order 6582, dated February 2, 1934. By Public b. 1, approved January 31, 1935, it was recognized as as Agency of the United States. Under this Act provision NO made for continuing the Corporation until June 16, 1937 or such earlier date as night be set by the President by Executive Order. Public No. 2, approved January 26, 1937 amended the Act of January 31. 1935, by strik- lag out the date June 16, 1937 and inserting in lieu thereof June 30, 1939. the authority of the President to discontime this Agency by Precutive Order still remains. The bank has never functioned as originally intended, that 18, to promote and facilitate trade with the Soviet. It has engaged in the general development of foriegn trade. the volume of loans has never been very extensive and the need of continuing the Agency any longer is doubtful. The expenditures of this corporation in the present fir cal year up to September 21 amounted to only $41,676. while receipts amounted to $173.394. Unless some real substantial reason can be found for continuing this Agency, and if there are no legal obstacles to its abolishment, the Agency should be discontinued by Executive Order and its assets transferred to the Reconstruction Finance Corporation. Meotric lone and Parm Authority the present District of Columbia Corporation use authorised by Executive Order 7139, dated August 12, 1935. W Public No. 454, & proved March 31. 1936, the Corporation was continued as all Agency of the United States until February 1, 1937. Under this Act the President vas authorized to discontinue the Corporation at a earlier date. By the Act of January 26, 1937. Public No. 2, the extension date was changed to June 30, 1939. but the mithority of the President to discontime the Agency at an earlier date still remains. the the authority was first organized, its activities wife ⑉ fined to the ave area, later when its offices were moved to Washington and vince the mastant efforts have been made to extend operations all over the United States. Today the Corporation is carrying paper valued at more than $4,500,000 and is operating in such cities as Fort tayne, Indiana: Lansing, Michigan; Los Angales. California: Inness City, Springfield, Illinois; Hartford, Commesticut, etc. the need for the continuance of this Corporation as as Agency of the United States my well be questioned. It can not very will point to my accomplishment in bringing about the reduction of interest gates Unclassified 206 - 2 - because its em rates were reduced by the elimination of certain charges in order that 18 might successfully compete with other financing - panies in Los Angeles. As there is apparently as lack of facilities for financing the purchase of electrical equipment at reasonable rates 10 would seen that there is no sound reason why advantage should not be taken of the authority conferred on the President by the Act of March 31, 1936, and the Agency discontinued by Executive Order. If such action is taken, its assets should be transferred to the Reconstruction Finance Corporation. de Regraded Unclassified name of main, APPROPRIATIONS AND FINILL THAN 1936 - 1930 207 TIMES THAN 1938 FINAL THAN 1939 $6,650,410,000 $6,650,410,000 ENCHIPTS increase (+) or - uresse (-) belivers (instating bal- of - 1938 appropriations - of - Invisted propristions - est 1939 appropria- Institution production Institute the estimates entt Legislative, civil Department and Agencies and the Judiciary: $24,325,691.78 $24,700,821.78 24 $23,500,000 + $375,130 1. Legislative establishment 115 113,790,573 103,000,000 153,349,190 + 39,648,317 2. Separtment of Agriculture 287,377,000 >>> . 107,377,000 160,000,000 153,000,000 Public highwage 20,000,000 12,000,000 143,768,237 110 + 123,742,237 has transly 43,363,342 35,000,000 61,006,994 40 . 17,043,652 3- Department of Compres 160 203,090,982.66 . 115,000,000 56,444,694.81 146,546,267.85 - in. Department of the Interior 1,000,000 - - 1,000,000 U. 3. Housing authority 1,000,000 39 41,012,765 50,236,703 + 58,000,000 5,223,938 3. Department of Justice (tastading the Judistary) 20,315,635 17 . 16,500,000 4,914,725 6. Department of taber 15,400,920 14 19,152,713.34 19,500,000 19,203,361.73 + 130,664.39 7. Department of State 150 150,310,360 178,949,481 . 149,000,000 4a 12,639,121 8. Presenty Department 35,432,065.94 $5,000,000 15,000,000 , 20,432,065.94 Public buildings 130 183,819,657 145,000,000 101,522,999 " # 2,296,698 9. Net Department (somilitary) 1,183,006 Passes Canal 10,573,760 10,400,000- - 11,750.00 . 25 52,317,000 . 10. Mural Electrification Administration 31,520,000 8,000,000 $0,797,000 40 40,166,270 $2,000,000 - 11. Termassee Valley Authority 43,000,000 1,833,730 If 12. United States Waritine Commission - 35,000,000 153,069,943 + 153,869,963 48 13. Other Independent offices and commissions 50,954,168 47,500,000 52,752,000 - 1,797,860 - 2 - 18,515,363 - 11,232,690 14. Post Office Department, deficiency 29,748,053 7,500,000 4 . 5,000,000 2,500,000 15. District of Celumbia, contribution 5,000,000 Total, Legislative, civil departments and 1,192,116,966.91 1,668,400,000 1,674,886,645.17 1,238 (16% agencies and the juliciary donal Defease: 526,943,308 629,665,104 560 - 1. Bary Department 540,000,000 103,121,796 4W 415.261.154 385,000,000 487,453,043 + 11.18.15 8. for Department Total, national defense $41,806,462 525,000,000 1,117,115,147 985 . 173,311,685 580,000,000 573,022,500 SS# - 12,809,500 Telephone' Administration 583,832,000 É adjustment Program 125,097,214 140 * 16,201,064 les. y. Les 8/24/35 (yos of Customs) 108,899,150 475,000,000 RES,100,000 440 - Miss. 126,006.42 Total, Agricultural Adjustment Progres. 655,100,692 475,000,000 613,197,214 580 - 350,000,000 310,000,000 325,006,383 290 - 19,993,617 la Conservation Corpo 11. 25,799,229 so + 1,164,239 - administrative expenses 23,631,000 20,000,000 STATE 130,000.000 194,454,000 in . 141.018.122 & 620,753,229 145 - now, Social Security 275,046,678 150,000,000 165,206,551 FIL. termers as the public debt $25,000,000 971,000,000 971 - 46,000,000 925,000,000 16 HIS. 16,000,000 16,000,000 16,000,000 1. Customs. 30,000,000 30.000.000 16,050,000 16 + 6,250,000 I - 51 Total, refunds N5,000,000 $6,000,000 52,850,000 . 6,050,000 UNITED I 1 di 1. AREA 35,000,000 21,200,000 - 11,000,000 (1) Federal land fusice (39,322,786) (24,322,786) as 55,000,000 (a) Federal Farm kripp Ourporation, returnion 8,350,000 - 1,350,000 is interest rates 5,000,000 29,550,000 . 12,700,00 40,000,000 55,000,000 we Total. agricultural side (39,322,786) (24,322,786) c. belief (12,740,007) 8,000,000 (10,740,007) A Regraded Unclassified - of united APPROVALITION AND FINCAL TRAIN 1938 - 1938 208 FISCAL THA 1938 FINCAL THAN 1939 Insurence (*) OF 4 Orness (-) him Appropriations (issiviling M- 1 & I 1938 appropriations propristions - - 1939 suppopria- - of - commissione - time collectes COME IL insurery - salief 3. Public verket 15 (1) expenses, Public lado 15,000,000 . (15,000,000) 30 administration (139,184,326) 100,000,000 (43,209,425) 20 (2) maile bighways. 30,000,000 (3) liver 1 barber werk and flood control (30,297,231) 85,000,000 (05,297,231) 22 (4) and clastrification deductration 21050,000,000 - 300,000,000 1,300,000,000 1,275,000,000 1,700 (5) Fragress Administration (151,078,597) (216,078,597) - R2,000,000 (6) Other paille escka (mational datence, public build- 62,000,000 200,000,000 (67,339,421) 50 Ingl. ess.) (145,339,481) 1,000,000,000 - 382,000,000 1,382,000,000 1,845,000,000 (391,063,000) } 1230 Total, public warks (654,063,000) / by All to - (5,041,07%) 4,000,000 (1,041,874) 15 (1) gie. (55,045,594) 35,000,000 (20,045,998) (2) imargency bruelag 7 (10,000,000) 10,000,000 - (3) rederal Housing - 118,000,000 118,000,000 125,000,000 we (4) Revettienent Security Adalnistration (97,011,775) - 118,000,000 118,000,000 174,000,000 Total, aid se bose-remers (169,098,406) (113,098,406) 64 9. (62,244) - (62,244) - (1) administration for Intestrial incovery 1,029,550,000 - $10,450,000 1,580,000,000 Total, recevery and relief 1,576,000,000 (539,286,443) 1341 (675,266,443) - devolving funds (not): 1. tericultural aid: $0 (1) Community Gradis Carparation (211,988,637) 100,000,000 (111,988,637) (69,431,298) a/10,000,000 (79,431,294) $10 (2) farm Drwdit idelaistration Total, agricultural add (251,419.935) 30,000,000 (191,419,935) 40 1. Public workst (1) Leans - granse to States, unicipalities, ord. (357,498,809) 200,000,000 (197,498,609) 150 (2) Loans to reilreads J. I (1) (spart-Impert Bank of Enchington (28,083,425) - (26,083,425) (2) incometruction Pinence Corporation (dirent laune and sentiture) 1/ a/150,000,000 as 5,00 Total, miscellansous (28,08),425) a/150,000.000 (28,083,425) Total, revolving funds (707,002,169) 140,000,000 (417,002,169) 90 11. Transfers to trail accounts, 1. Cld-age reserve account 510,000,000 510 * 500,000,000 $25,000,000 10,000,000 n/ 23,310.077 3. failred Retirement assount 144,310,077 138,000,000 121,000,000 . 3- Government employees' retirement funds (Unised Bates sharg) 71.255.000 71,294,600 71 - 71,255,000 hop 717,565,077 636,255,000 704,254,600 704 - 13,320,477 Total, transfers to trail ass 111. Pupplemental 15em 180,000,000 not 7,4,6,936,718.17 - Total (seciuding lebs restrument) 7,345,655,000 (956,208,612) 7,245 (1,582,283,612) 594.6 liet deficit 695,265,000 582,515,000 591,515,000 592 . 9,000,000 XIII. retirement 205,000,000 8,061,453,718.17 7,417 - Total 7,995,655,000 (1,582,258,612) (956,258,612) 1,186.6 leans definess $95,285,000 Scaless of credite. (nduct. The teamstration Finance Corporation 14 anthorized to - from the Treasury le may the requirements. .1. Regraded Unclassified COMPARISON OF EXPENDITURES FOR THE FIRST TWO MONTHS OF THE FISCAL YEAR 1938 WITH THE CORRESPONDING PERIOD IN THE FISCAL YEAR 1937 (GENERAL AND EMERGENCY FUNDS COMBINED WHERE POSSIBLE.) July 1 to July 1 to Increase (f) Aug. 31, 1936 Aug. 31, 1937 Decrease (-) Civil Departments and Agencies 103,983,925.61 120,181,316.19 + 16,197,390.58 Social Security Act 25,523,482.27 46,583,075.29 t 21,059,593.02 National defense: Army 66,548,676.91 67,796,868.49 t 1,248,191.58 Navy 77,447,433.21 90,312,548.47 f 12,865,115.26 Veterans' Administration 96,399,322.22 97,070,652.92 t 671,330.70 Agricultural Adjustment Program 57,774,703.58 37,607,587.05 - 20,167,116.53 Civilian Conservation Corps 23,806,529.79 63,231,634.84 + 39,425,105.05 Farm Credit Administration 10 8,726,011.68 a 4,757,800.42 t 3,968,211.26 Interest on the public debt 35,787,357.67 32,970,157.67 - 2,817,200.00 Refunds 9,599,738.01 7,967,674.89 - 1,632,063.12 Federal land banks 11,844,262.51 9,917,190.88 - 1,927,071.63 Relief 49,202,191.14 839,567.17 - 48,362,623.97 Public works (including work relief): Reclamation projects 3,524,366.01 11,541,013.66 + 8,016,647.65 Public buildings 3,052,009.56 7,585,533.24 t 4,533,523.68 Public highways 76,366,372.03 52,048,363.74 -24,318,008.29 River and harbor work and flood control 46,128,071.90 35,472,514.05 - 10,655,557.85 Rural Electrification Administration 650,299.83 4,244,973.76 t 3,594,673.93 Works Progress Administration 314,680,469.65 235,034,721.01 - 79,645,748.64 Tennessee Valley Authority 3,789,614.02 7,025,954.37 t 3,236,340.35 Loans and grants to States, etc 45,415,298.19 37,167,593.60 - 8,247,704.59 Loans to railroads 157,950.78 ¥76,579.88 - 234,530.66 All other 67,674,731.32 44,084,719.54 - 23,590,011.78 2,495,751.19 1,516,640.58 - Home loan system 979,110.61 Emergency housing 4,957,692.67 11,362,745.74 t 6,405,053.07 Federal Housing Administration 2,346,018.61 2,647,806.25 t 301,787.64 Resettlement Administration 23,429,757.05 32,231,280.23 t 8,801,523.18 Administration for Industrial Recovery 5,006.34 a 5,425.74 - 10,432.08 Commodity Credit Corporation all 66,406,100.51 a 1,129,304.07 t 65,276,796.44 t Export-Import Bank of Washington a 466,446.60 a 95,119.48 371,327.12 Reconstruction Finance Corporation a199,961,994.75 a21,900,175.32 /178,061,819.43 028.8 151.5 Transfers to trust accounts, etc: 877 83,000,000.00 + 83,000,000.00 - Old age reserve account - Railroad retirement account 30,000,000.00 t 30,000,000.00 Adjusted service certificate fund 39,753,332.48 - - 39,753,332.48 Government employees' retirement funds (U.S. Share) 46,735,300.00 73,255,000.00 + 26,519,700.00 963,519,111.01 1,214,732,728.72 4251,213,617.71 Subtotal 23,128,350.00 30,550.00 - 23,097,800.00 Debt retirements 986,647,461.01 1,214,763,278.72 /228,115,817.71 Total expenditures a Excess of credits, deduct. 209 Regraded Unclassified 210 Telephone conversation between Mr. Mulligan, Treasurer of the Reconstruction Finance Corporation, and Mr. Bartelt, September 27, 1937. Mr. Bartelt: I was Just down with the Secretary of the Treasury and he told me that he is going to have & conference with Mr. Jones tomorrow, He wanted to know if you would have Mr. Jones bring with him commitments outstanding against your balances, In connection with that I would like to ask you A. question or two. You expect to make payments this year of about $400,000,000 and your receipts from figures we have are estimated at $550,000,000, leaving net receipts over payments of $150,000,000. Mr. Mulligan: I am going over the thing again today and I'll be able to give you a better idea of it then. That was made sometime ago and I want to go over the figures before I say anything. Mr. Bartelt: Will Mr. Jones have that? Mr. Mulligan: I don't know. If he wants it he will, I'm going to start right now, Mr. Bartelt: Will you have him bring it with him? Another thing, Mr. Mulligan, do you know of any way in which the Reconstruction Finance Corporation can turn the proceeds of its sales into the Treasury 80 as to avoid respending the money by the Public Works Administration? Nr. Mullican: I don't know of any way. We can buy securities from them, Mr. Bartelt: Do you know of any way in which they would not be able to use the money? Mr. Mulligan: I know of no way it could be done. We buy from the Public Works Administration. We have no control over the money from that point on. Mr. Claude Hamilton, the General Counsel, may be able to help you. Mr. Bartelt: When you sell those securities can the money be turned into the Treasury? Mr. Mulligan: It is turned into the Treasury. Mr. Bartelt: It goes-to your account? Mr. Mulligan: You get it all, The only difference is our debt to you, When we sell to the Public Works Administration it increases our debt to you, Mr. Bartelt: Would that be available for expenditure again? Mr. Mulligan: Under the original law we were authorized to buy from the Regraded Unclassified 2. 211 Public Works Administration but not over $250,000,000. This was later increased to $400,000,000. Beyond that we can't go. Mr. Bartelt: When you buy the securities from Ickes you give him a check and when you sell the securities you deposit that in the Treasury. I was wondering if there was some step in there that I had overlooked. Mr. Mulligan: I don't think 80. You seem to have a good idea of the thing. Mr. Bartelt: The Secretary would like for Mr. Jones to bring those figures. date? 212 Receipts and Expenditures estimated by the Reply Rept 27 Reconstruction Finance Corporation compared with actual (In millions of dollars) 1936 1937 Fiscal year 1936 Budget Budget Actual Receipts 327.0 656.1 1,164.1 Expenditures 712.1 1,222.6 925.4 Excess of receipts -- --- 238.7 Excess of expenditures 385.1 566.5 --- 1937 1938 Fiscal year 1937 Budget Budget Actual Receipts 290.6 715.8 739.4 irpenditures 806.1 514.6 405.5 Excess of receipts --- 201.2 333.9 Excess of expenditures 515.5 - - Fiscal year 1938 Cash withdrawal July and August statement Actual eceipts 57.2 167.2 upenditures 91.9 145.3 Excess of receipts -- 21.9 Excess of expenditures 34.7 -- Regraded Unclassified 213 guied upon getimates contained COMPUNITIVE JULYSIS or e washing. is President's Medicage of April (Arranged according to discomention shows 00 PACK D. 1937. t of daily Treasury 1 July and suchs, 1937. 2 Please The 1958. Payments. : collegions. et a list Expenditions. Payments, F Ampaymente and : just SEVERAL JD SPECIAL ACCOUNTS. collections. Expenditures. (mentitures) 1- General: Departmental Public buildings = 108,586,799 3 1903,872 Public 7,585,533 4 108,653,927 + 641,198,100 - River and herber work and flood control 32,538,861 7,585,003 $ 9,550,100 $5,000,000 8. 638,545,000 29,860,610 32,028,861 I - Reclamation projects 155,000,000 42,000,000 - 20,008,610 I 155,000,000 Paname Canal 6,115,417 162,000,000 - 6,115,417 I Postal deficiency 2,309,542 40,000,000 142,000,000 - 9,368,754 2,309,845 I Bailmand Detirement Let 10,400,000 40,000,000 I I 871,012 9,360,754 30,000,000 10,400,000 Social Security lot I ! 46,052,075 072,812 2,800,000 50,000,000 District of Columbia (U. 3. stare) - - $6,553,075 5,000,000 506,000,000 2,200,000 National defense: - - 5,000,000 5,000,000 $06,000,000 - Any 5,000,000 Havy 67,795,860 - 90,312,546 67,796,868 293,000,000 - Veterens' Administration I Agricultural Adjustment Progres 97,070,655 90,212,548 560,000,000 295,000,000 - 1 36,717,827 97,070,603 580,000,000 560,000,000 I Civilian Conservation Dorge I 30,717,827 $80,000,000 63,231,635 496,500,000 I Parm Credit Administration - 43,251,635 499,500,000 3,990,714 350,000,000 Termeses Valley Authority 2,875,951 - 1,116,783 200,000,000 Interest on the Public Debt 7,020,954 54,567,000 7,025,354 10,567,000 - Refunds: 28,970,108 49,000,000 44,000,000 - - 32,970,150 49,000,000 850,000,000 I 360,000,000 Curtome 2,377,095 Internal revenue I 2,377,095 5,520,585 17,000,000 I - 5,090,588 19,000,000 Processing tax on farm products 36,000,000 889,760 I mo,960 $6,000,000 - 42,000,000 - $2,000,000 Subtotal 555,799,477 6,886,605 646,973,674 4,634,862,100 19,117,100 4,515,746,000 11. Recovery end relief: Agricultural ed.d: Federal land been 9,917,191 - 9,917,191 24,000,000 Belief - 24,000,000 639,567 - 639,567 - I Public works (iscluding work relief): I Reclamation projects 5,425,597 - 5,425,097 15,000,000 I 15,000,000 Public highways 19,009,800 I 19,009,000 150,000,000 1 189,000,000 River and barter work and flood control, 6,803,904 1 6,603,904 80,000,000 - 50,000,000 Rural Elactrification Administration 4,244,974 - 4,244,974 3,000,000 I 5,000,000 Works Progress idministration 235,034,721 1 125,054,721 1,500,000,000 I 1,500,000,000 All other 44,108,694 17,974 44,084,720 168,040,000 60,000 162,000,000 asd to has How loss system 1,516,641 - 1,515,641 2,000,000 I 8,000,000 Resrgency housing 11,562,746 - 11,362,745 50,000,000 I 30,000,000 Federal Housing administration 3,844,778 1,195,972 2,647,806 25,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 Desattlement Administration 52,251,280 - 32,831,280 151,000,000 - 131,000,000 Miscellensous: Aministration for Industrial Recovery a 5,426 - à 5,488 I - 1 Subtotal ...... 374,528,169 1,214,946 373,413,223 1,042,040,000 10,040,000 1,852,000,000 111. Revolving funds: (art) Agricultural a14: Ommodity Gredit Corporation 1,730,756 2,860,040 1,189,304 10,000,000 40,000,000 a $2,000,000 Farm Credit administration 3,300,000 2,069,070 5,074,585 188,687 13,182,687 4. 15,000,000 Public Marks: Love et greate to States, municipali- tion, etc. 41,276,854 4,209,252 37,167,094 880,500,000 100,000,000 180,500,000 10,590 87,170 = 76,500 I Loans se reilroads 500,000 1 000,000 Missellansous: &port-Deport Bank of Washington ... 20,217 113,339 . 95,119 2,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 Recomitruction Finance Corporation direct loans and expenditures 145,540,073 167,260,748 1 21,900,175 400,000,000 650,000,000 a 150,000,000 Dubtotal 188,173,644 177,081,635 8,091,081 561,502,687 704,682,827 4 12,000,000 LV. Transfere to trust accounts, as,000,000 $2,000,000 540,000,000 - 540,000,000 - 01d-age passeve account Builread retirement appount 20,000,000 I 20,000,000 25,000,000 - 25,000,000 - I I 60,000,000 - 50,000,000 Adjusted service certificate fund Dovertment employees' retireet funds (0. a. share) 75,256,000 75,250,000 1 73,865,000 73,258,000 - Subtotal 166,255,000 - 186,855,000 445,350,000 1 Total agentitares excluding dabs retire- 1,401,868,112 107,185,500 1,814,728,789 7,584,000,000 IN I ma,114,110 I - 418,000,000 I Deficit . Done credita, Ambert. 5 countries min, Regraded Unclassified ACCOUNTS AND DEPORITS, September 27, 1937. PUBLIC WORKS EXPENDITURES 1938 Amount avail- Balance avail- Unliquidated able for cash Cash Withdrawal Estimatos able for cash obligations withdrawal in April 20 Sept. 1 Present withdrawal in carried into 1938 1939 1939 1. General Public Worke Program items Public Buildings 130,197,066 45,000,000 45,000,000 45,000,000 85,197,066 72,619,257 Public Highways 186,151,000 153,000,000 153,000,000 153,000,000 33,151,000 225,239,500 Rivers and Harbore & Flood Control (improvement) 218,000,000 127,000,000 105,000,000 105,000,000 113,000,000 81,921,942 Other 185,573,314 115,000,000 100,000,000 96,000,000 89,573,314 81,951,775 Total, General Public Works Program 719,921,380 440,000,000 403,000,000 399,000,000 320,921,380 461,732,474 2. Emergency Fund expenditures supplemental to above - Public Buildings 26,805,824 10,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 16,805,624 16,069,957 Public Highways 155,906,700 130,000,000 100,000,000 100,000,000 55,906,700 55,906,700 Rivers and Harbors and Flood Control 60,794,415 20,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 35,794,415 6,109,065 Other 31,139,898 15,000,000 15,000,000 15,000,000 16,139,898 16,108,505 Total, Emergency 274,646,837 175,000,000 160,000,000 150,000,000 124,646,837 94,194,530 3. Additional public works included in statement of Mr. Hase - Rivers and Harbors Vaintenance 45,765,000 35,000,000 38,000,000 38,000,000 7,765,000 3,650,000 55,034,074 30,000,000 35,000,000 35,000,000 20,034,074 19,000,000 Emergency Housing P.W.A. grants and administrative expenses. 405,791,064 225,000,000 250,000,000 215,000,000 190,791,064 190,791,064 506,590,138 290,000,000 323,000,000 288,000,000 218,590,138 213,441,064 Total Additional Total items 1 to 3 1,501,158,355 905,000,000 586,000,000 837,000,000 664,158,355 769,368,068 4. Other items in nature of public works - 23,075,550 19,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 5,075,550 5,075,550 Soil erogion 9,878,000 9,000,000 8,000,000 8,000,000 1,878,000 1,695,000 Army construction 9,387,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 3,387,000 7,165,000 Navy - Yards and Docks 3/35,000,000 3/35,000,000 - 21,000,000 2/21,000,000 P.W.A. loans 1,000,000 3,000,000 32,000,000 31,340,550 13,934,550 63,340,550 Total other items 1,564,498,805 904,000,000 883,000,000 869,000,000 695,498,905 783,302,618 Grand Total The 1939 authorization of $216,000,000 will also be an outstanding obligation under the highway act. Also $129,000,000 in bonds. Excess of credits deduct. Regraded Unclassified 215 PUBLIC WORKS ADMINISTRATION REVOLVING FUND Cash Account (Millions) Cash balance June 30, 1937 $ 246 Cash to be received from sales to Reconstruc- tion Finance Corporation: 1938 $ 150 1939 100 250 496 Payments for grants: 1938 $ 88 1939 128 Payments for administrative expenses: 1938 15 1939 9 240 Available for loans 256 Payments for loans: 1938 148 1939 62 210 Cash balance (estimated June 30, 1939) . 46 Accounts and Deposits September 29, 1937 Regraded Unclassified 216 PUBLIC WORKS ADMINISTRATION REVOLVING FUND Summary Cash Securities On hand June 30, 1937 246 + 129 Sale of Securities to RFC 1938 + 150 - 150 1939 + 100 - 100 Total funds available 496 Disbursements Grants - 1938 88 - 1939 128 - Administrative expenses 1938 15 - 1939 9 - Loans 1938 148 + 148 1939 62 + 62 Total disbursements 450 On hand June 30, 1939: Cash 46 - Securities - 89 46 135. A ccounts & Deposits September 29, 1937. 217 Major Construction Items (In millions of dollars) Present April 20, estimate 1937 Increase (+) (Sept, 1939) Estimate Decrease (-) General: Public buildings 45.0 45.0 - Public highways 153.0 153.0 I Rivers and harbors 105.0 127.0 - 22.0 Reclamation 35.0 40.0 - 5.0 National Park service 4.0 4.5 - .5 Indian service 5.0 5.5 - .5 Tennessee Valley Authority ... 40.0 49.0 - 9.0 Sub-total 387.0 424.0 - 37.0 All other 12.0 16.0 - 4,0 Total general 399.0 440.0 - 41.0 Emergency: Public buildings 10.0 10.0 - Public highways 100.0 130.0 - 30.0 Rivers and harbors 25.0 20.0 + 5.0 Reclamation 15.0 15.0 - Total emergency 150.0 175.0 - 25.0 Grand total 549.0 615.0 - 66.0 September 27, 1937. 218 MAJOR CONSTRUCTION APPROPRIATIONS Cash Withdrawals - General Funds Public Buildings: 1. Admiral Peoples' memorandum of September 16 to the Secre- tary of the Treasury shows present estimated cash withdrawals of $3,800,000, or about 16 per cent of the appropriation. This 18 a kind of appropriation that does not call for large expenditures during the year for which the appropriation is made. The purchase of sites and preparation of plans and specifications require some time and represent a relatively small percentage of the total ap" propriations for the buildings. AS a matter of fact, only about 12 per cent of the appropriation of $60,000,000 for 1937 was ex- pended during that year: and only about 9 per cent of the same appropriation for 1936 was expended during that year. In addition to the $23,000,000 appropriation for 1938, there was available at the beginning of the present fiscal year $90,000,000 of previous year appropriations for this purpose. 2. This appropriation in the amount of $2,325,000 is for completion of the Bureau of Engraving and Printing annex. The contractor is well up with his schedule and it is now expected that the building will be completed in April: and that this progress makes necessary 8. revised estimate of cash withdrawals on this account of $2,000,000 by June 30, next. 3. A check for $10,107,066 has already been drawn and cashed. Public Highways: 4, 5. 6, 7. and 8. On the basis of the present departmental estimates of expenditure, all this $180,000,000 will be paid out by June 30, 1938, and there will also be paid out by that date $100,000,000 of emergency funds. (This $100,000,000 represents payments to the States in the amount of $120,000,000 less return of $20,000,000 previously advanced to the States). On this basis there would remain on June 30, 1938, unliquidated obligations incurred during that year by the States under the High- way Acts of $177,000,000 out of the general funds, and $23,000,000 out of emergency funds. (By January first, next, an additional $216,500,000 will be by law apportioned for obligation by the States on account of the 1938 authorisation). The present budget estimate of expenditures for the fiscal year 1938 is $253,000,000. or $27,000,000 less than the departmental esti- mate of expenditures under both the general and emergency funds. It is not believed that the departmental estimate can be safely discounted in an amount greater than $27,000,000. Regraded Unclassified 218 - 2 - Rivers and Harbors, and Flood Control: 9. 10 and 11. Out of 8. total availability for cash withdrawal in 1938 of $218,000,000, the Department had estimated actual cash withdrawals of $127,000,000, which figures our present Budget our vey place at $105,000,000. This present estimate of $105,000,000 represents $60,000,000 in cash withdrewale from unliquidated obli- gations brought into 1938 and $45,000,000 of cash withdrawals from the 1938 appropriations of $142,500,000. The proposed reduction of $22,000,000 from the department's estimate of cash withdrawals for 1938 is based upon the assumptions that reserves of $34,000,000 can be maintained and that there will be considerable delay in the flood control construction program in connection with the securing of rights-of-way, in particular, those that are to be supplied by local interests. Of a cash withdrawal availibility of $61,000,000 in emergency funds for river and harbor, and flood control, work in 1938, the department has estimated withdrawnls of $31,000,000. Our present Budget estimate of cash withdrawals of emergency funds for this purpose for 1938 is now placed at $25,000,000, or $6,000,000 less than the departmental estimate. This is due in part to our belief of probable delays in securing rights-of-way for flood control con- struction, and in part to the inability to meet relief labor require- menta of the Works Progress Administration. Reclamation Service: 12 and 13. The possibilities with respect to delaying con- struction work, and hence reducing cash withdrawals for 1938, on the larger reclamation projects, are somewhat limited by the fact that these projects have been started in previous years and are now under way. There are, however, some possibilities along this line that are dependent upon securing rightm-of-way and the signing of repayment contracts. Of a total amount of $83,784.000 available for cash withdrawal for 1938, which includes unexpended balances of previous years' ap- propriations ae well as the 1938 appropriation, the Department had estimated cash withdrawals in 1938 of $48,328,000. In our present survey of lower cash withdrawal possibilities for 1938, we have placed the figures at $35,000,000. Of this amount $20,000,000 would be on account of cash withdrawal balances brought into 1938, and $15,000,000 would be out of the 1938 appropriations of $39,215,000. These present Budget cash withdrawal figures are low figures. To realize them will require, it is thought, a further going over of the figures with the Reclamation Service under instructions to that service to somewhat delay its construction program. 220 - 3 - The Reclamation Service has a 1938 available cash withdrawal amount in emergency funds of $31,139,000, and while it originally estimated a cash withdrawal from these funds of $26,765,000, our present Budget estimate of cash withdrawals of emergency funds for 1938 is down to $15,000,000. The same comment with respect to our present estimate of cash withdrawals from general funds applies to our ability to realize as low a cash withdrawal amount of emergency funds as $15,000,000. National Park Service: 14. It is now estimated that of this 1938 appropriation of $10,500,000 for National Park roads and parkways, there will be cash withdrawals by the end of the year of about $2,500,000. Indian Service: 15. On the basis of a revised estimate of cash withdrawals under these roads and construction appropriations for the Indian Service for 1938. it is believed that not more than $5,000,000 will be paid out by the end of the year. Tennessee Valley Authority: 16. Of the amount of $52,233,000 available for cash withdrawal during the fiscal year 1938, the Authority had estimated withdrawals of $45,000,000 for the year. The lowest figures that we could now estimate for 1938 cash withdrawals would be $40,000,000. of which $35,000,000 would represent a cash withdrawal amount from the 1938 appropriations of $40,166,000. the MAJOR CONSTRUCTION APPROPRIATIONS Cash Withdrawals - General Fund Amount available Estimated Cash Withdrawal 1938 Estimated cash withdrawal from for cash with- By depart- Current Budget drawal am Appropriated 1938 appropriations ments satimate for 1938 Current Budget 1938 (Form A) &/177 1957 By departments estimate Public Buildingsr is Outside the District of Columbia 113,569,000 62,000,000) 23,000,000 15,000,000 3,800,000 1 In the District of Columbia 6,521,000 3,860,000) 45,000,000 116 2,425,000 1,448,000 2,000,000 2 Grand Central Station, P. O,, New York 10,107,066 10,107,066) 10,107,066 10,107,066 10,107,056 3 Total 130,197,066 75,967.066 45,000,000 35,532.066 26,555,066 15,907,066 Public Highways: Federal Aid Highway System 154,647,000 150,000,000) 150,000,000 150,000,000 125,000,000 4 Secondary or feeder roads 5,000,000 5,000,000) 5,000,000 5,000,000 4,500,000 5 Elimination of grade crossings 10,000,000 10,000,000) 153,000,000 153 10,000,000 10,000,000 9,000,000 6 Public land highways 3,004,000 2,500,000) 2,500,000 2,500,000 2,500,000 7 Forest roads and trails 13,500,000 13,500,000) 12,500,000 12,500,000 12,000,000 8 Total 186,151,000 181,000,000 153,000,000 180,000,000 180,000,000 153,000,000 Rivers and harbors and flood control: Improvement of rivers and harbors 150,000,000 73,000,000) 90,000,000 20,000,000 18,000,000 9 Flood Control Act June 22, 1936 30,000,000 25,000,000) 105,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 15,000,000 10 Flood Control Mississippi River 38,000,000 29,000,000) 22,500,000 13,500,000 12,000,000 11 218,000,000 127,000,000 105,000,000 127 142,500,000 58,500,000 45,000,000 Total Reclamations Boulder Canyon project 13,601,863 9,000,000) to 4,050,000 12 39,328,000) 35,000,000 35,165,000 19,000,000 15,000,000 13 Other 70,183.075 19,000,000 15,000,000 Total 83,764,938 48,328,000 35,000,000 39,215,000 National Park Service 14,000,000 6,500,000 4,000,000 4/5 10,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 14 5.5 6,877,775 7,216,775 6,692.775 5,000,000 Indian Service 7,401,775 5,000,000 15 Tennessee Valley Authority 52,233,000 40,000,000 Hq. 40,166,270 32,912,250 35,000,000 16 44,978,990 691,767,779 490,651,831 387,000,000 Ant. 455,130,111 326,660,101 271,407,066 GRAND TOTAL 1% 16 are the 349 stolo Regraded Unclassified 222 MAJOR CONSTRUCTION ALLOCATIONS Cash Withdrawals - Emergency Funds Amount available Estimated cash withdrawal 1938 for cash withdrawal By departments Current Budget am 1938 (Form A) 1937 estimate Public buildings: Act June 19, 1934 $ 15,726,742 $ 10,000,000 N.I.R. funds including New Interior Building 6,543,084 4,000,000 $ 10,000,000 P.W.A. allotments 4,535,998 2,536,564 Total 26,805,824 16,536,564 $ 10,000,000 Public highways: N.I.R. highway funds $ 14,111,100 $ 11,171,500 N.I.R. Forest highways 44,100 44,100 100,000,000 130 Emergency relief, Highways, grade crossing elimination 133,537,000 101,000,000 Emergency relief, Highways, roads and streets 8,214,500 8,214,500 Total 155,906,700 120,430,100 100,000,000 Rivers and harbors and flood control Emergency relief, flood control, Miss. River and tributaries, 1938 15,000,000 - Emergency relief, rivers and harbors, and flood control, 1935 - 1937 7,686,709 7,686,709 Emergency relief, flood control, general (Act 7/19/37) 1938 30,000,000 15,000,000 Emergency relief, flood control 25,000,000 20 and other conservation 632,933 632,933 N.I.R. flood control, 1933 - 39 7,474,773 7,474,773 Total 60,794,415 30,794,415 25,000,000 Reclamation: N.I.R. Boulder Canyon project, inc. All American Canal 994,381 994,381 P.W.A. Boulder Canyon 578,506 575,000 N.I.B. Parker Gila project 31,090 - 15,000,000 N.I.R. Reclamation, 1933 - 39 10,200,000 9,000,000 Emergency relief, Boulder Canyon 2,995,921 2,995,921 Emergency relief, other reclamation 16,340,000 13,200,000. Total 31,139,898 26,765,302 15,000,000 274,646,837 150,000,000 175 Grand Total 194,526,381 223 PUBLIC WORKS ADMINISTRATION REVOLVING FUND Securities Account (Millions) Securities on hand, June 30, 1937 $ 129 Securities to be purchased from public bodies: 1938 $ 148 1939 62 210 Total securities 339 Securities to be sold to Reconstruction Finance Corporation: 1938 150 1939 100 250 Securities which will be on hand June 30, 1939 89 Accounts and Deposits September 29, 1937 224 no date Regraded Unclassified Actual expenditures of the Government for fiscal years 1926-1937 (Classifications include expenditures from both general and emergency funds) 225 (In millions of dollars) I Total # Total # Total I Aggregate : 1926-1929 : 1930-1933 I 1934-1937 : 1926-1937 Regular operating expenditures: Legislative, judicial and civil establishments 2,816.0 3,256.7 2,749.1 5,821.8 National defense 2,466.8 2,775.9 3,096.9 8,339.6 Veterans' pensions and benefits (excluding bonus prepayment) 2,829.3 3,541.1 2,415.2 8,785.6 Interest on the public debt 3,029.0 2,559.6 3,193.3 8,781,9 Total 11,141.1 12,133.3 11,454,5 34,728.9 Public works: Public buildings 47.1 303.1 281.0 631.2 Public highways 377.9 651.8 1,179.7 2,209.4 Rivers and harbors 292.0 463.0 812.5 1,567.5 PVA (grants and admin. expenses) - - 574.6 574.6 Other 31.7 76.4 362.0 470.1 Total 748.7 1,494.3 3,209.8 5,452.8 Unemployment relief: Direct relief - 350.7 3,355.4 3.706.1 Work relief - - 3,977.5 3,977.5 Civilian Conservation Corps - - 1,639.5 1,639.5 Total - 350.7 8,972.4 9,323.1 Agricultural adjustment program - - 2,098.7 2,098.7 Social Security - - 476.2 476.2 Miscellaneous - - 36.6 36.6 Total nonrecoverable expenditures (excluding bonus and debt retirement) 11,889.8 13,978.3 26,248.2 52,116.3 Loans (net) 5.6 1,666.2 456.9 2,128.7 Subscriptions to capital stock 6.0 737.7 1,089.7 1,833.4 Total expenditures (excluding bonus and debt retirement) 11,901.4 16,382.2 27,794.8 56,078.4 Bonus prepayment - I 2,230.2 2,230.2 Debt retirement 2,096.9 1,868.2 1,440.7 5,405.8 Total arpenditures 13,998.3 18,250.4 31,465.7 63,714.4 Regraded Unclassified 226 Actual expenditures of the Government for fiscal years 1926-1929 (Classifications include expenditures from both general and emergency funds) (In millions of dollars) : 1926 : 1927 : 1928 : 1929 : Total Regular operating expenditures: Legislative, judicial and civil establishments 666.9 589.4 708.6 851.1 2,816.0 National defense 579.7 584.4 624.6 678.1 2,466.8 Veterans' pensions and benefits (excluding bonus prepayment) 650.5 721.8 723.9 733.1 2,829.3 Interest on the public debt 831.9 787.0 731.8 678.3 3,029.0 Total 2,729.0 2,682.6 2,788.9 2,940.6 11,141.1 Public Works: Public buildings 2.1 7.8 6.7 30.5 47.1 Public highways 98.8 92.5 91.1 95.5 377-9 Rivers and harbors 70.3 65.4 72.9 83.4 292.0 PWA (grants and admin. expenses) - - - I - Other 3.4 5.2 9.5 10.6 31.7 Total 174.6 173.9 180.2 220.0 748.7 Unemployment relief: Direct relief - - - - - Work relief - I - # - Civilian Conservation Corps - I - # - Total - . - - , - Agricultural adjustment program - - - - - Social Security - - - - 1 Miscellaneous 1 - - - - Total nonrecoverable expenditures (excluding bonus and debt retirement) 2,903.6 2,856.5 2,969.1 3,160.6 11,889.8 Loans (net) - , - 5.6 5.6 Subscrip.ions to capital stock - 1.0 - 5.0 6.0 Total expenditures (excluding bonus and debt retirement) 2,903.6 2,857.5 2,969.1 3,171.2 11,901.4 Bonus Prepayment - I - - Debt retirement 487.4 519.6 540.3 549.6 2,096.9 Total expenditures 3,391.0 3,377.1 3,509.4 3,720.8 13,998.3 Regraded Unclassified Actual expenditures of the Government for fiscal years 1930-1933 227 (Classifications include expenditures from both general and emergency funds) (In millions of dollars) : : : 1930 : 1931 : 1932 : 1933 : Total Regular operating expenditures: Legislative, judicial and civil establishments 789.5 790.9 978.8 697.5 3,256.7 National defense 701.3 699.2 707.6 667.8 2,775.9 Veterans' pensions and benefits (excluding bonus prepayments) 753.5 939.6 984.8 863.2 3,541.1 Interest on the public debt 659.3 611.6 599.3 689.4 2,559.6 Total 2,903.6 3,041.3 3,270.5 2,917.9 12,133.3 Public works: Public buildings 43.0 67.7 86.5 105.9 303.1 Public highways 89.3 174.4 209.9 178.2 651.8 Rivers and harbors 106.5 121.3 116.8 118.4 463.0 PWA (grants and admin. expenses) - - - - - Other 11.0 13.9 26.3 25.2 76.4 Total 249.8 377.3 439.5 427.7 1,494.3 Unemployment relief; Direct relief - I - 350.7 350.7 - - - Work relief I - - - - - - Civilian Conservation Corps I - - 350.7 350.7 Total - - - Agricultural adjustment program # - - - - - - Social Security - - - Miscellaneous - I Total nonrecoverable expenditures (excluding bonus and debt retirement) 3,153.4 3,418.6 3,710.0 3,696.3 13,978.3 154.8 233.0 404.0 874.4 1,666.2 Loans (net) I - 627.0 110.7 737.7 Subscriptions to capital stock Total expenditures (excluding bonus and debt retirement) 3,308.2 3,651.6 4,741.0 4,681.4 16,382.2 - 1 - - Botras Prepayment - Debt retirement 553.9 440.1 412.6 461.6 1,868.2 3,862.1 4,091.7 5,153.6 Actual expenditures of the Government for fiscal years 1934-1937 228 (Classifications include expenditures from both general and emergency funds) (In millions of dollars) # : : : : 1934 : 1935 1936 : : 1937 Total : : Regular operating expenditures: Legislative, judicial and civil establishments 572.5 597.7 781.1 797.8 2,749.1 National defense 540.3 709.9 911.6 935.1 3,096.9 Veterans' pensions and benefits (excluding bonus prepayment) 556.9 607.1 677.9 573.3 2,415.2 Interest on the public debt 756.6 820.9 749.4 866.4 3,193.3 Total 2,426.3 2,735.6 3,120.0 3,172.6 11,454,5 Public works: Public buildings 78.7 58.1 67.9 76.3 281.0 Public highways 267.9 317.3 243.9 350.6 1,179.7 Rivers and harbors 150.8 203.0 223.7 235.0 812.5 PVA (grants and admin. expenses) 18.8 48.9 233.9 273.0 574.6 Other 35.7 77.0 99.3 150.0 362.0 Total 551.9 704.3 868.7 1,084.9 3,209.8 Unemployment relief: Direct relief 715.8 1,914.1 591.7 133.8 3,355.4 Work relief 805.1 11.3 1,264.4 1,896.7 3.977-5 Civilian Conservation Corps 331.9 435.5 486.3 385.8 1,639.5 Total 1,852.8 2,360.9 2,342.4 2,416.3 8,972.4 Agricultural adjustment program 290.3 743.0 542.6 522.8 2,098.7 Social Security - - 28.4 447.8 476.2 Miscellaneous 8.7 21.1 6.8 - 36.6 Total nonrecoverable expenditures (excluding bonus and debt retirement) 5,130.0 6,564.9 6,908.9 7,644.4 26,248.2 Loans (net) 788.6 80.5 -175.2 -237.0 456.9 Subscriptions to capital stock 826.5 156.8 69.3 37.1 1,089.7 Total expenditures (excluding bomus and debt retirement) 6,745.1 6,802.2 6,803.0 7,444.5 27,794.8 - - Bonus prepayment 1,673.5 556.7 2,230.2 Debt retirement 359.9 573.6 403.2 104.0 1,440.7 Total expenditures 7,105.0 7,375.8 8,879.7 8,105.2 31,465,7 Regraded Unclassified Proprietary Interest of the United States in Governmental Corporations and Credit Agencies, as of June 30, 1929 to 1937 229 (In millions of dollare) : 1929 : 1930 : 1931 : 1932 : 1933 : 1934 : 1935 : 1936 : 1937 Financed wholly from Government funds: Reconstruction Finance Corp. - - - 780 1,498 2,452 2,035 1,804 1,491 Commodity Credit Corp. - - 1 - - 206 154 244 123 Export-import Banks - - - - - 14 14 18 17 Public Works Admin. I - I - - 145 312 152 146 Regional Agric. Credit Corp. - I - - 150 51 77 35 27 Production Credit Corp. - - - - I 106 121 121 121 Panama Railroad 8. 40 42 42 45 43 43 43 43 44 Shipping Board Merch. Fleet Corp. 210 207 217 233 224 143 182 151 87 War Emergency Agencies 14 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 Farn Loan Board - Corp. Loans 7 160 392 628 3 I I I - Farm Credit Administration - - - - 556 74 193 175 191 Inland Waterways Corp. 20 21 24 24 25 2 24 24 25 25 Railroad Obligations 62 55 40 39 38 38 31 30 30 Tennessee Valley Authority - - - - - 9 64 96 179 Subsistence Homesteads (R.A.) - - - - I 2 3 24 80 128 Federal Housing Administration - - - - - I 29 30 30 R. P. c. Mortgage Corp. - - - - - - 4 18 48 Rural Electrification Administration - - - - - I 1 1 12 Other - - - 1 - 1 5 6 14 Total Group 1 353 496 725 1,759 2,544 3,319 3,317 3,038 2,721 Financed partly from Government and partly from private funds: Federal Land Banks 4 4 24 125 125 161 251 256 292 Federal Intermediate Credit Banks 32 33 34 36 60 85 84 103 104 Federal Farm Mortgage Corp. - - - - - 197 206 201, 177 Banks for Ocoperatives - - - - - 111 129 156 154 Home Loan Banks - - - - 43 61 82 100 121 Home Owners Loan Corp. - - 1 - i 144 70 13 68 Federal Savings & Loan Insurance Corp. - - - - I - 102 104 108 Federal Savings & Loan Associations - - I - - 1 32 102 48 Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. - - I - I 150 150 150 150 War Finance Corp. 1 1 1 1 1 4 4/ Total Group 2 33 34 35 162 230 930 1,106 1,185 1,222 Grand Total 386 530 760 1,921 2,774 4,249 4,423 4,223 3,943 1 Source: Annual Report of the Secretary of the Treasury, 1936: Deily Treasury Statement, July 31, 1937. Estimated. 3/ Transferred F.C.A. Less than one million. Regraded Unclassified 230 PUBLIC HIGHWAYS Authorizing Act of June 16, 1936 Apportioned in December, 1936 $216.5 W To be apportioned in Dedember 1937 216.5 Total authorizations on books 433.0 M Appropriated - In Act of June 29, 1937 24.5 Balance not yet appropriated 408.5 To be appropriated - In next deficiency bill $ 2.0 In 1939 appropriation bill 281.5 In 1940 appropriation bill a/125.0 408.5 To be expended - In fiscal year ending June 30, 1938 - Under Dec. 1935 and prior apportionments. 157.0 Under Dec. 1936 apportionments 41,5 198.5 In fiscal year ending June 30, 1939 - Under Dec. 1936 apportionments 175.0 Under Dec. 1937 apportionments b/ 91,5 266.5 In fiscal year ending June 30, 1940 - Under Dec. 1937 apportionments / 125.0 Note. From the foregoing it will be noted that the budgets for 1939 and 1940 are already committed to "expenditures" of $266.5 M and $125.0 M, re- spectively, under authorizations already enacted by Congress, making & total of $391.5. This will be further increased by the amount ex- pended in 1940 under any new program authorized by Congress. at This will be increased by amount appropriated and expended under any new program authorized by Congress during the coming session. Not yet made. Accounts and Deposite October 4, 1937. of 231 PUBLIC HIGHWAYS Prior year Fiscal Fiscal appor- year year Total tion- 1938 1939 ments I. Authorizing Act ----- 6/16/36 6/16/36 II, Apportionment - - Date 12/29/36 12/ -/37 III. Apportionment - - Amount $216.5 $216.5 433.0 IT. Appropriated by Congress - -- (Deduct) Act June 29, 1937 24.5 - - 24.5 To be appropriated 192.0 216.5 408.5 In the next deficiency bill 2.0 - - 2.0 In the 1939 annual supply bill 190.0 91.5 281.5 In the 1940 annual supply bill - - a/125.0 125.0 192.0 216.5 408.5 I. To be expended (estimated) - In fiscal year 1938 (July 1/37 - June 30/38) 157 41.5 - - 198.5 In fiscal year 1939 ( If 1/38 - # 30/39) - 175.0 91.5 266.5 In fiscal year 1940 ( If 1/39 - # 30/40) - - - 125.0 a/ 125.0 157 216.5 216.5 590.0 / This will be increased by the amount to be expended under any new program authorized by the Congress during the next session. 232 CONFIDENTIAL Treasury Department Division of Research and Statistics Date 10/5 1937 To: Secretary Morgenthau From: Mr. Haas The total receipts figure for the fiscal year 1938-39 (estimated), about which you just called me, is $7,172,711,000. Regraded Unclassified --233 Actual expenditures of the Government for fiscal years 1926-1937, and Tentative Bevised Extimates for 1938 (Classifications include arpenditures from both general and emergency funds) (In millions of dellare) I = 1 1928 : : : : 1926 1 1 - : : 1927 1929 1930 1931 1932 , 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1934 impilar operating expenditures: Legislative, judicial and civil establisimente 666.9 589.4 708.6 851.1 789.5 790.9 978.8 697.5 572.5 597-7 781.1 783.0 796.6 Intional defense 579-7 584.4 624.6 678.1 701.3 699.2 707.6 667.8 540.3 709.9 911.5 935.1 950.0 Teterans' pensions and benafits (ercluding tomas preparent) 650.5 721.6 723.9 733.1 753.5 939.6 984.8 $63.2 556.9 607.1 677.9 573-3 570.0 Interest on the public debt 831.9 787.0 731,8 678.3 659.3 611.6 599.3 689.4 756.6 820,9 749.4 866.4 975.0 Total 2,729.0 2,652.6 2,768.9 2,940.6 2,903.6 3,041.3 3,270.5 2,917.5 2,426.3 2,735.6 1,180.0 3,157.8 3,241.6 2019 Public vorte: Public buildings 2.1 7.5 6.7 30.5 43.0 67.7 86.5 105.9 78.7 58.1 67.9 76.3 60,0 Public highways 98.8 92.5 91.1 95-5 09.3 174.4 209.9 178.2 267.9 317.3 243.9 350.6 253.0 livers and harbors 70.3 65.4 72.9 83.4 106.5 121.3 116.8 118.4 150.6 203.0 223.7 235.0 173.0 PTA (grente and admin. expenses) 48.9 233.9 273.0 - - . - - # - - 18.6 250.0 Other 3.4 8.2 9,5 10.6 11.0 13.9 26.3 25.2 35.7 11.0 99,3 150.0 150,0 Total 174,5 173.9 180.2 220.0 245,6 371.3 439.5 427.7 551.9 104.3 808.7 1,084,9 686,0 50% Themployment relief: Direct relief - . - - 350.7 715.6 1,914.1 591.7 - - - 133.8 80.0 fort relief - - - - - . . 805.1 11.3 1,264.4 - 1,896.7 1,275.0 Divilian Conservation Corps - . - - - 331.9 435.5 486.3 - - 365,8 310.0 - Total - - - - . - 350.7 1,052.8 2,360.9 2,342.4 - 2,416.3 1,665.0 12 - 542.6 533.6 Agricultural adjustment program - - - - - - . 290.3 743.0 475.0 - - - 28.4 451.8 813.0 Secial Security and Bailroad Retirement - - - - - - . - - - 8.7 21.1 6.8 - 100.0 Viscellaneous and supplemental items - - - S Total monrecoverable expenditures (excluding benus and debt retirement) 2,901.6 2,056.5 2,969.1 1,160.6 3,153.4 3,418.6 3,710.0 1,696.3 5,130.0 6,564.9 6,908.9 7,544.4 7,180.6 Leage (net) 5.6 154.0 233.0 404.0 574.4 788.6 80.5 -175.2 - 237.0 0,0 - - - Dubscriptions to capital stock. etc 1,0 5.0 - - 527.0 110.7 $26.5 156.6 69.3 37.1 35.0 - - Total expenditures (excluding borras and debt retirement) 2,903.6 2,857.5 2,969.1 3,171.2 3,308.2 3,651.6 4,741.0 4,651.4 6,745.1 6,602.2 6,803.0 7,444.5 7,215.6 I presiguent 1,673.5 556.7 30.0 F . , - - - - - , - Debt refirement 407.4 519.6 540.3 549.6 553.9 440.1 412,6 461.6 359.9 573.6 403.2 104.0 200.0 . Total mentitures 3,391.0 3,377.1 3,509.4 3,720.5 1,862.1 4,091.7 5,153.6 5,143.0 7,105.0 7,375.8 6,879.7 6,105.2 7,445.6 1.174 7:80 11267 Regrade Unclassifie infidential 234 Actual receipts of the Government for the fiscal years 1926-1937 and estimates for 1938 (In millions of dollars) : 1926 : 1927 4 - : a 1928 1 : 1029 1930 1931 I 1 I :Estinated 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 some and profite taxes: Corporation 1,095 1,308 1,292 1,236 1,263 1,026 630 394 397 572 T34 1,057 1,340 Individual 879 912 883 1,095 1,147 834 427 353 420 527 674 1,092 1,496 Incoss profits - - - - - - - - 3 7 15 25 29 Total income and profits taxes 1,974 2,220 2,175 2,331 2,410 1,860 1,057 747 520 1,106 1,427 2,174 2,055 incellaneous internal reverns: Estate and gift taxes 119 101 60 62 65 48 47 34 113 212 379 306 417 Capital stock tax 97 9 9 6 2/ - - - 80 92 95 137 142 Alcoholic beverage taxes 27 21 15 13 11 11 9 43 259 411 505 594 657 fobacco taxes 371 376 196 434 450 falsh 399 403 425 was 501 552 548 Manufacturers' excise taxes 150 67 52 6 3 3/ 244 365 342 383 V51 463 Stamp and sundry taxes 98 72 54 67 101 Si 46 149 219 151 158 168 204 Total miscellaneous internal reverns 862 646 616 608 630 568 501 ETS 1,401 1,667 2,021 2,208 2,411 recessing taxes - - - - - - - - 371 526 72 - - actel Security taxes: Title VIII - - - - - - - - - - - 207 59 Title II - - - - - - - - # - - 58 77 Railroad retirement - - - - - . - - - - 2/ 2/ 154 Total social security taxes - - - - - - - - - - - 265 754 bust enrichment tax - - - - - - - I - - . 6 , Total internal revenue (collection tasts) 2,836 2,866 7,791 2,939 3,040 2,428 1,558 1,620 2,672 3,299 3,520 4,653 6,065 Adjustment to daily Treasury statement 2 - 4 - 1 - 1 2 3 - 16 - 11 - 21 7 - 55 - Total internal revenue (Treasury statement basis) 2,838 2,570 2.795 2,938 1,039 2,430 1,561 1,604 2,641 3.276 1,513 4,598 6,065 Pustoms 1/ 579 605 569 602 587 378 328 251 313 143 387 486 199 receipts 546 554 678 493 552 382 117 225 162 179 216 210 210 Total receipts (daily Treasury statement basis) 3,963 4,129 4,042 4,033 4,175 3,190 2,006 2,060 3,116 3,800 4,116 5,254 6,774 Pigures for the years 1926-1931, inclusive, include tennace tax, Inter covered in Miscellaneous Receipts of the Treasury Less than $500,000. SUMMARY - THEATMENT DEPARTMENT - 1939 Increase (*) ur decrease (-), impress (+) CP Butget allowance Actival decrease (+), Rev litimates of Appropriations, 1939 0511 atlone compared with asti- Suigat allowance Appropriations é Ae eubmitted by Allowed by mates as submitted Appropriation Title 1937 compared with 1930 department Butget by impartment. 1938 appropriations. Annual Appropriations little of the I 352,251,156 I 561,237,300 I 537,792,900 I Division of Research and Matistics -$75,000,600 -$70,453.000 156,356 130,000 130,000 223,000 - 93,000 . Office of owner<) Commel 95.000 17.712 153,000 152,000 140,500 - office of Chief Clark 5,500 - 5.500 760.584 770.000 479.500 400,520 - 70,900 - Offine of Repartment of Transury 5.9.360 Suildings o o 332,006 327,000 - 4,200 4) Division of Printing 527.600 1.350.047 1,519,260 1.715,520 Office of Comissioner of Inrounts and 1,509,250 - 140,280 . 250,000 Pepositive 2,361,479 1,112,500 2,063,020 2.044.000 - "Unlie Table Imprise 19,820 250.500 2,723,391 2,015,900 4,712,184 Division of 5,59 .700 - 151,464 - 773,500 64,317 44,900 44.500 Bureeu of Custome o - 60 35,655.009 30,372,166 57,010.000 - 1,350,100 . ufflaw of Pressurer of the letter Itates 379,940 1,353,511 1,239,000 1,322,250 Buesse of Internal Versous 1,271,620 - 50,630 + 32,620 114,709.94 103.301,420 ***700.800 94,669,500 - releral Alechol (doinistration 5.137,000 - 0,051,020 1,76,913 450,000 150.000 Tureau of Maranties 450,000 o o 1,325,000 1,267,600 1,412,500 1,507,000 - Chest issued 45,600 - 99,400 24,176,590 30,970,131 25,865,527 - 5.104,506 . Fureu of and 1,216,707 7.250.430 7,500,000 9,970,500 9,700,000 - 270,500 - Tenrat Cervi Unition 2,200,000 1,025,102 1,013,810 1,495,250 1,545,050 - 149,508 + office of the Comptrailer af the 331,040 290,927 275,900 275,000 malla Health arrine 250,0LD , 0,200 - 7,140 17.972.901 21,140,900 inread of the Wind 23,580,157 22,037,200 - 1,340,937 . 4,977,670 890,220 2,900,405 Pronument 2,656,920 - 23,575 - 183.500 Futlin Francis 4,455,961 7.480.220 5,770,020 5,750.720 I United of Tumply 25,100 - 99,500 545,205 300.000 500,000 500,000 Promition of the (11n) 0 o 25,000 115,000 115,000 115.000 0 0 Total, Appropriations 750,000,000 755.907.009 870,925.077 - 09.062,712 - 7/,075,753 Permarent Appropriations Office at the 1,100,000 2,417,972 Fanks Thank 2,760,072 2.740,072 o - 1-2,500 1,000.00 2,976,000 4.354,000 uffice ui the insure of the Thited Teache 6,000,000 - 354,000 . 1,072,000 5,000 5,270 5,500 3,000 0 - 1,670 Total, Appropriations 5.161,007 5,100,002 7,187,672 6,703,672 - 354,000 . 657,1130 Truet Office of Commissioner of and Deposite 15,00 11.790 10.700 Burnes of Customé 15,700 - 1,000 0 20% 5,000 5,000 factsu at Internal Ferenue 5,000 o 0 10,091,200 11.95.500 16.073,500 Testle ----- 10,093,500 0 - 2,000 60,151 $0,000 20,600 Promoting Charles if the *2ind (Interest) 50,000 o o 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 o o Total. Fevrt Mounte 10,050,200 19,901,000 10,970,000 - 5,000 - 2,000 es the Mélie 000.000,000 995,000,000 771,000,000 971.000.000 o linkin. Time 101,753,050 - 40,000,000 581,003,191 570,000.000 990,000.000 o . infirments 34,000 0,910.605 1,515,000 1,515,000 1,515,000 o o liquid Total, Pressury Department of of THE suff southo Farks -189,109.712 -$22,775,154 income GE lilive sugget 10,000 - o - 2,000 VERBAL COMPANY or assistance 19,000,000 11.000,000 - 4,000,000 - 14,432,069. lab sparating $150,406,293 $160,812,832 $180,941,481 $168,373,969 - 12,567,512 + 7,761,137 Refends 76,279,776 11,010,900 52,658,600 014 Age incorve 51,000,000 265.000,500 - 1,850,000 500,000,000 10,002,100 510,000,000 industion is interest end Aid-1n surplus 435,000,000 - 75,000,000 - 65,000,000 (faders) Land Banks) 06,978,712 60,000,000 29,550,000 Janaral Mills Yorks (public holldings 29,550,000 51,782,051 a 35,432,065.94 - 10,450,000 Internet MI the Public Debt 15,000,000 11,000,000 568,000,000 925,000,000 - 4,000,000 - 28,432,065.94 Debt retirements. 971,000,000 971,000,000 0 103,747,050 582,990,191 + 46,000,000 591,515,000 591,515,000 o - 8,916,809 Total. $1,584,274,500 $2,304,653,988.96 $2,350,865,281 $2,257,447,769 -193,417,512 -$47,206,219.94 Trust Assounte 16,972,150 18.960.600 15,991,000 15,975.600 - 2,200 - 2,000 - Total 11,603,2,4,650 $2,325,634,788.94 $2,369,846,281 -093,419,712 -847,208,219.94 end com Regraded Unclassified Details 1991. FINCAL THAN 1939 Increase (+) or Impress (*) or Decrease (-), (-), total Sulget allowance budget allowance Item of Appropriations, 1939 Chligations exapered with acti- Appropriated compared with 1950 Sex As minitied by Allowed by Apprepriation Title 1937 mates as submitted 1938 departments appropriations Budget by department Office of Bearetary of the Transury L. Salariss. Office of Secretary of the Treasury... 4 205,272 . 207,500 . 212,900 4 2. Expenses, Merganey Benking, Gold Reserve and 207,300 - # 5,600 - o Silver Purchase into, Office of the Secretary 47,136 30,000 30,000 27,000 5. 014 Age Reserve Account, Social Security 100... - 265,000,000 5,000 - 500,000,000 3,000 510,000,000 435,000,000 las #ubscriptions to Paid-In Surplus, Federal Land - 75,000,000 - 65,000,000 Banks 34,445,806 20,000,000 o o 5. Payments to Federal last banks os assounts of o - 20,000,000 reduction in interest retes on martgages 32,532.942 15,000,000 21,200,000 21,200,000 6. Payments to Federal Farm Mortgage Corp. redue- o + 6,200,000 tion in interest rates - mortgages 0 5,000,000 8,350,000 8,350,000 o - 7. Capital Stook, United States Housing Authority.. o 3,350,000 1,000,000 o o 8. Payment of Interest on Deposite, Philippine o - 1,000,000 Islands (Indefinite) 1,100,000 2,427,572 2,780,072 2,780,072 o + 362,500 Total, Office of Dearetary of the Treasury, general fund 333.531.156 543,654.872 92.572.972 467.564.372 - 75,006,600 - 76,090,500 Division of Ensearch and Statistics 9. Salariss, Division of Research and Statistics.. 68,324 60,000 60,000 160,000 . 10. Expenses, Energency Benking, Gold Reserve and 100,000 + 100,000 Filver Purchase lots, Division of Research and Statistics 86,032 70,000 70,000 63,000 - 7,000 - 7,000 Total, Division of Research and Stabistics 154,356 130,000 150,000 225,000 - 93,000 + 95,000 Office of Salaries, Office of Deneral Counsel 100,669 97,000 Expenses, Reargency Banking, Gold Peserve and 97,000 97,000 o o Silver Purchase Aste, Office of Osceral (Countel 67.043 55,000 55,000 49,500 - 5.500 - 5,500 pial, Office of General Counsel 107.712 152,000 152,000 146,500 - 5.500 - 5,500 Office of Chief Clark 13. Office of Chief Clerk 515,564 920,000 129,580 129,120 - Like Salaries, Emergency Banking, Gold Reserve and 400 - 390,000 Bilver Purchase lots, Office of Chief Clerk. 34.746 25,000 25,000 22,500 - 15. Contingent Treasury Department 2,500 . 150,263 170,000 2,500 270,000 200,000 - 70,000 . 10, Combingest Expenses, Emergency Banking, Gold 30,000 Reserve and Silver Purchase lots 66,011 55,000 55,000 49,000 - 5,000 - 6,000 Total. Office of Chief Clark 766,584 770.000 479,580 1,00,620 , 70,960 - 309,380 Office of Superistendent of Treasury Buildings 17a Salaries, Office of Superintendent of Treasury Buildings o o 332,008 327,800 - 4,208 . 527,800 Division of Printing 18, Salaries, Division of Printing 69,047 69,240 70,520 69,240 - 19. Printing and Binding, Treasury 1,250 o 506,000 775.000 1,025,000 950,000 - 20, Stationery, Treasury Department 75,000 + 475,000 175,000 475.000 620,000 950,000 - 70,000 . 75,000 Total, Division of Printing 1,350,047 1,319,260 1,715,520 1,569,240 - 146,250 - 250,000 Office of Commissioner of Accounts and Deposits - a. Salaries, Office of Commissioner of resource and Deposits 277,166 290,000 378,620 373,000 - 5.600 + 22. Solaries and Expenses, Division of Disbursement 83,000 1,359,480 1,427,500 1,431,700 1,417,500 - 14,200 . 25. Contingent Expenses, hells Moneys 10,000 227.394 200,000 158,500 150,500 o - 2, Resolange of Minor Coins 41,500 22,383 25,000 25,000 25,000 0 o 25, Recolange of Silver Dolne 446,146 600,000 600,000 600,000 o o 26. Belief of Indigent Persons in Alaska 19,641 20,000 20,000 20,000 o 27. Refunding Moneya Trronsessly Neceived and o Cerered 9,067 50,000 50,000 50,000 21, Deverment Louses in Ripart o o o 500,000 200,000 200,000 o - 300,000 Total, Office of Commissioner of Assente and Deposits, General Fund 2,361,479 3,112,500 2,563,620 2.844,000 - 19,820 - 258,500 Trust documents Vi, Payment of Unclaimed Manage 9,007 12,000 15,000 12,000 - 50m of Prosends assote of Liberty Loss 3,000 o Associations, 1. T. 1,807 1,500 1,600 32. Return of Promote Undelivered Liberty Lean 1,600 o o i 53 100 100 100 o a Total, Office of Condissioner of and Deposite, General and Trust Pants 2,372,006 3,126,200 2,080,520 2,857,700 - Regraded-Unclassified TREASURY DEPARTMENT - Continued FISCAL TEAR 1939 Increase (*) or Decrease (-), Increase (*) or Actual Extimation of Appropriations, 1939 Budget allowance Decrease (-), Appropriation Title Obligations Appropriated 1937 is subsitted by Allmed by nonpared with esti- butget 1938 department mts as submitted high expared dia 1938 Public Debt Service by department appropriations Fublic Deht Service Distinctive Paper for United States Securities. 1,997,042 2,100,000 # 2,592,640 8 2,W1,700 726.549 716,900 1,149,54 - # 150,940 . - 1,149,000 341,700 - 5% - 432,100 Total, Public Debs Service proper, annual appropriation 2,723,591 2,016,900 3,742,184 3,990,700 - 151,444 . 773,800 Expenses (Indefinite) of Loans (Act Sept. 24, 1917 A & E) 4,056,239 2,978,000 4,354,000 4,000,000 * $50,000 + 1,022,000 Total, Public Debt Service proper (axclusive of interest end comulative sinking fund) 6,779.630 5.794.900 8,096,164 7,590.700 . 505,484 + 1,795,800 Division of Appointments Inlaries, Division of Appointments 64.317 44.560 44.560 o - so Bureau of Custome Collecting the lievenue from Customs 20,515,558 20,636,060 22,372.166 21,016,000 Refunds and Trawbacks - 1,356,166 . 579.940 15,340,331 16,000,000 16,000,000 16,000,000 o o Total, Bureau of Customs, general fund 35,895,009 56,636,060 38,372,166 37,016,000 - 1,356,166 . 379,960 Philippine Trust Fund 284 5,000 5,000 5,000 o o Total, Bureau of Customs, general and trust funds 35,850.173 36,641,060 38,377,166 37,021,000 - 1,356,166 - 379,960 Office of Treasurer of the United States Inlaries, Office of Treasurer of the United States 1,130,668 1,150,000 1,250,250 1,200,000 - 18,250 - 50,000 Salaries, Office of Treasurer of the United States (won) 100,356 85,000 74,000 71,620 - 2,380 - 13.360 Transportation and Insurance of Gold Cola and Gold Cartificates, Gold Reserve let of 1934.. 6,287 4,000 0 o o - 4,000 Total. Office of Transurer of the United States, ensual 1,243,311 1,239,000 1,322,250 1,271,620 - 50,630 + 32,620 Contingent Expenses, National Currency Rein- bursable (Indefinite) 5,660 5,270 3,600 3,600 o - 1,670 Total, Office of Treasurer of the United States 1,268,979 1,244,270 1,325,850 1,275,220 + 50,650 - 30.950 Suress of Internal Revenue Gallesting the Internal Sevenue 51,803,735 58,240,520 62.678.000 97,596.000 - 3,252,000 - Salaries and Expenses, Silver Purchase lot, 1934. Internal Revenue 46,761 50,000 50,000 15,000 - 5,000 - $,000 Refunding Internal Revenue Collections 32,253,003 30,000,000 36,850,000 35,000.000 - 1,850,000 + 5,000,000 Malaries and tipenses, Refunding Processing Bal. cont'd. Dal. sent'd. Mal. sont'd. Taxes. available available evailable include and Payments of Prosessing Taxas, sto., Cotition Tobacco and Potato Asta, 1936 ........ 30,002,542 15,000,000 o 0 o - 15,000,000 Additional Income Tax on Railroads is Alasta 3,100 10,900 6,800 6,000 o - Suitto Total, Bureen of Internal Annual ... 114,789,961 103,301,420 99,766,800 94,669,500 - 5.137,000 - $25,400 Pullippine Trust Fund 745,077 745,000(Nevised) 745,000 745,000 o Philippine Trust Fund, Commut 011 Tax 18,127,810 18,125,000 18,125,000 18,125,000 o Puerto Biso Trust hat 221 500 500 500 o + Treasury Department Inforcement Title III Net'l. Prohibition let, Puerto Rice and Virgin Inlands 15,000 25,000 23,000 23,000 o - E Total. Superv of Internal Revenue, Trust Assounts 18,691,108 10,895,500 10,893.500 16,893,500 0 - - Total, Burien of Internal Revenue 133,61.010 122,196,920 118,600,300 113.543,300 + 5,137,000 - (Revised) federal Aleghel Administration Injuriow and Expenses, Federal Alsohol Adminis- traties 476,915 450,000 450,000 450,000 o Bursee of funnity Regraded Unclassifie Salaries and - fews of Supentine 1,329,000 1,267,600 1,412,600 1,307,000 - 45.600 + State Regraded Unclassified TERASURY DEPARTMENT - Continued FISCAL THE 1939 Increase or Decrease (-). Increase (*) Budget allowance Decrease (-). Actual Retiastes of Appropriations, 1939 emport with with Budget allows Des Obligations appropriated As submitted by Allowed by mates " absitted sergared with Title 1937 1958 department Budget by department appropriations how of the Miss 98. Relation, Office of Director of the Mist # 30,271 - 36,360 I 30,520 e 30,520 4 o : 160 1M. Inspectation of Bullism and Coin 9,633 35,000 215,000 100,000 o . 65,000 101. Signature, Office of Director of the M 5.000 5,200 6,800 6,000 - 800 . 6,000 M and Mints and Assay Offices 3,201,136 1,275,000 1,557,925 1,512,400 - 45.525 . 237,400 less, N/W Purchase à Ould eserre Act 1,045,626 1,120,000 1,082,250 1,000,000 - 62,250 - 120,000 Tytal, Jarison of the Wint 4,299,590 2,473.500 2,900,195 2,656,920 - 213,575 . 183,560 Insured Division, Public Buildings Branch 16. Esteral administricative Expenses. Public Buildings 919,566 914.220 914,220 914,220 o o un. Seales, Preservation and Equipment, Public Relitive - 1,606,945 2,750,000 2,750,000 2,750,000 0 o 10d. specifier Pares (w Publis Buildings 1,433,211 1,573,500 1,999,600 1,573,500 - 26,100 o MY. Newserv and lesire of Same for Public Buildings 44.781 50,000 50,000 50,000 o o 105. Operating supplity for Public Buildings 439.749 460,000 465,000 463,000 . 2,000 * 3,000 100. for Salief of Contrastors, Ast June 16, Sal. cont'd, Bal. cont'd. Dal. cont'd. 1934 9,609 available available available 110, Naturial be Twain filled is Wreck of Shenandoah. o 2,500 o o o . 2,500 m. Transury Prilding, Tashington, D. C., Wiring o 100,000 o o o - 100,000 Total, Pronurement Division, Public Buildings Branch, Exalusive of Public Buildings Construction 4.453.941 5,850,220 5,776,820 5,750,720 . 28,100 - 99,500 112. Salaries and Expenses, Supply Branch 343,265 500,000 500,000 500,000 o o Total, Prosurement Division 4.797,226 6,350,220 6,278,820 6,250,720 - 26,100 - 99,500 American Printing House for the Blind 113. To Promote the Riveation of the Blind 5,000 115,000 115,000 115,000 o o 114. To Promote the Stuestion of the Plint (Interest) (Trust Fund) 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 o o Total, American Printing Rouse for the #1tal 75,000 125,000 125,000 125,000 o o Total, Treasury, less interest and retirements, $579,519,409 $780,382,532 $792,107,261 $702,687,569 - 89,419,718 - 77,694.963 115. Interest on the Public Debt 866,000,000 925,000,000 971,000,000 971,000,000 0 116. Sinking Punt 103,733,650 581,083,191 990,000,000 590,000,000 + 46,000,000 117. Retirements 14,000 1,515,000 o 1,515,000 1,515,000 + 8,916,809 o o Grand Total, Treasury Department, exclusive of Bureau of budget and Public Works Program $1,551,267,059 $2,287,980,723 $2,154,622,281 $2,265,202,569 4 89,419,712 -$22,778,15L Bureau of the Budget Salaries and Expenses, Buress of the Budget ... I 165,736 # 187,000 I 187,000 I 187,000 Fristing and Binding 31,820 35,000 o 37,000 o 37,000 a . 2,000 Total, Bureau of the Budget - 197.550 ( 222,000 # 224,000 e 224,000 o = 2,000 GENERAL PUBLIC works PROGRAM Construation of Fublie Buildings 51,782,053 35,432,065.94 15,000,000 11,000,000 - 4,000,000 - Increase (*) or Detirmento (-). Increase (*) or tolget allowance Dearause (-), total Setimates of Appropriations, 1999 - Ouligations compared with esti- Budget allowance Appropriated As submitted by Appropriation Title Allowed by mates as submitted ocepared with 1950 1937 1958 department Auger by department appropriations Coast Guard 55- salarios, Office of Coast Guard # 307,375 - 309.260 * 396,960 # 309,240 5% Pay and allowances, Cosst Quard - 7.740 # o 17,384,558 15,094,000 10,314,382 18,037,000 - 277.382 * 57,000 % Fuel and fater, Coast Duard 1,85,198 1,675,000 1,601,330 1,600,000 - 81.330 . 125,000 3. care Coset Guard 1,435,305 1,565,000 1,814,251 1,671,000 - 143,251 4. 100,000 4. Requiling and Repairing Stations, ma., Codet mard 469,614 292,500 1,974,200 325,000 - 1,649,200 - 52,500 % Comunication Lines, Comist Guard 133.938 180,000 301,400 251,000 - 70,400 + 51,000 a. Civilian Employees, Coast Duard 190,656 192,000 209,960 205,200 - 4,700 + 15,200 allo Contingent Expenses, Cosst Geard 203,557 122,600 108,000 122,000 - 14,100 - 600 du Repaire to Coset Quard Vasanla 1,903,500 1,459,613 2,439,358 1,500,000 - 489,350 . 340,107 & Repairs to Const Irsard Airoraft 515,187 533,340 515,187 . 10.153 o if Emplacement tirplanes, Cosst Guard o 363,500 531,000 270,000 - 261,000 - 95,500 - Additional dirplanes, Cosst Guard 664.729 o 534,000 0 - 531,000 0 a. Tabablishing See Const Guard Stations 0 0 784,930 o . 766.950 0 2. (stablishing Nr Stations, Cosat Guard D o 597,000 e - 597,000 o 9. additional Goast Guard o o 750,000 700,000 - 50,000 . 700,000 Total. Coist hard 24,176,590 24,6,3,840 30,970,131 25,865,627 - 5,104,804 . 1,216,707 jurior of ingraving and Printing s. Valories suid Expense. - of Engraving and Printing 7,260,130 7,500,000 9,970,500 9,700,000 - 270,500 + 2,200,000 Searet Service Division n. Salarias, Incret Service Division 50,194 53,160 o o o - 53,160 72. Suppressing Counterfeiting and Other Crimes 627.904 810,000 1,344,608 1,195,000 - 149,608 + 385,000 75. Salaries, Unite Bouse Police 115.314 146,900 146,900 146,900 o o The Dafforms and "quipment, White Bouse Police 3,080 3,750 3.750 3,750 0 o Total, Secret Terrice Division 1,025,192 1,013,810 1,105,258 1,345,650 - 149,608 - 331,840 Office of Comptroller of the Currency 75. Inlaries. Office of Comptroller of the Currency 212,708 204.300 204,300 2016300 o o 76+ Balaries. Office of Comptrollar of the Currency (wes) 15,480 9,720 - s.ale - 7.40 23,164 16,300 7, Salaries. leargency tanking Ant. Office of 55.300 o o Comptroller of Currenays 99,055 95,300 55,300 266.860 - 6,240 - 7.140 Total, office of Comptroller of the Currency. 290.927 275.980 275,080 Public Health Tervice 316,000 o o s. Salaries, office of Surgeon General 308,136 316,000 510,000 131,554 + 108.000 " Pay of Commissioned Offiners 1,820,000 1,928,000 - 1,769,862 2,059,554 15,200 - 15,200 325,200 340,200 340,200 525,000 - 2, Pay of soting Assistent Surgeons 978,860 1,000,000 - 111,960 o 1. Pay of Other Employees 1,000,000 1,111,960 o o 2. Freight, Transportation, sta. 25,080 25,150 25,150 25,450 63,560 04,000 35,000 o - 3. Waistenance, National Institute of Health 56,000 99,000 5,801,990 6,457,000 635,000 - . 507,000 in Pay of Persunnel and Waintenance of Hospitals 6,150,000 7,092,608 0 a 5. Quarantine Service 351,046 331,250 351.250 331,250 o o Su Preventing the Spreed of Epidemic Disease 252,516 260,000 250,000 260,000 o o 7. Interstate Cuaractine Service 54,961 36,500 30,500 36,500 o o 9. Centrol of Stulogia Products 44,550 55.000 55,000 55,000 o 0 9. Expenses, Division of Yeseres) Diseases 78,940 00,000 80,000 80,000 D. Expenses, Division of Mental Bygime 650,432 1,056,000 - 220.415 647,560 1,250,415 - 1,000 0 1. milite 960 1,000 6 1,000 D D 2. Grants so States Cor Publis Health Work 6,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 5. Disamses and Sanitation Investigations, Public o o Health Service 1,260,948 1,600,000 1,600,000 1,500,000 . 200,000 @00,000 les Maintenance, National Canser Institute o 1,000,000 700,000 500.000 Total. Publis Health Service, General 19,972,901 22,037,200 - 1,340,937 21,11ab,950 25,386,137 Trust Accounts a 5. National Institute of Health Punde 5,000 5,000 5,000 5.000 o D. Money and Effects of Forear Patients, P.E.S.... 1,535 1,500 1,500 1,500 o 7. Patients deposite. U.S. Marine Hospital, Carvilla 100 100 100 100 D. Personal Punds and Parsings of inmates, Barootis o Pures 31,516 50,000 50,000 50,000 o Total. Public Health Service, Trust issount 60,151 56,600 50,600 50,600 Total, Fuhlie Health Service. General and 20,033,052 21,203,580 Trues insounts 23.142.797 22,093.800 - 1,3,0,937 5 Regraded Unclassified Reading copy 239 Address of the Secretary of the Treasury, to be delivered before the Academy of Political Science, at the Hotel Astor, New York City, Wednesday Evening, November 10, 1937. I welcome the opportunity to discuss before the members and guests of the Academy of Political Science the subject of Federal spending and its relation to the balancing of the Federal budget. Nineteen years ago tomorrow, we signed the Armistice ending the World War. That war was enormously costly in human values, and it was enormously costly in material values. In the two years between the middle of 1917 and the middle of 1919, the Federal Government sustained a net deficit-of twenty-two billion dollars. 88 3238 Unclassified 240 - 2 - During the past four years, this country has been engaged in another war. This time our enemy was a great economic disaster. In this war, we fought with jobs and with dollars to save farmers from losing their farms; to save home owners from losing their homes; to give not only bread but work to the unemployed; to increase the security of jobs, property values, and business profits; and to bring order out of chaos in our economic system. This war, like that other war, required a many- sided campaign under intelligent and courageous leadership - -- a leadership that was magnificently supplied by President Roosevelt. 104 3134 241 - 3 - Finally, this war, like that other war, : . required a large spending program. This program, plus the special needs arising out of the great drought and the prepayment of the soldiers' bonus, necessitated net outlays during the four years ended June 30, 1937, of some fourteen billion dollars in excess of our receipts. of course, it is easily possible to criticize some of the detailed uses of the relief funds. Let us concede that there was some waste. In any expenditure program of such magnitude this is inevitable. But, contrasted with the human and material values at stake, such wastes as may have occurred shrink into insignificance. 108 3026 242 - 4 - We deliberately used an unbalanced Federal budget during the past four years to meet a great emergency. That policy has succeeded. The emergency that we faced in 1933 no longer exists. I am fully aware that many of our problems remain unsolved. I am aware that there still remains a considerable volume of unemployment; that the speculative markets have recently been under severe pressure; and that our business indexes have recently shown a declining tendency. I am further aware that some persons contend that another great spending program is desirable to ward off the risk of another business depression. 101 2925 243 - 5 - I claim no prophetic insight into the future. But, after giving serious and careful consideration to all of these and other factors, I have reached the firm conviction that the domestic problems which face us today are essentially different from those which faced us four years ago. Many measures are required for their solution. One of these measures, but only one, in the present juncture is a determined movement toward a balanced budget. Early in 1933, after three years of progressive deterioration, our whole economic mechanism was demoralized. Under these conditions, there was no agency outside of the Federal Government with the resources and the courage to bring about a business revival. 114 2811 244 - 6 - Today the situation is greatly changed. We are now nearing the end of one of the most active years in the business history of this country. On the whole, this high level of activity has been of a healthy character -- not of the character that usually marks an unhealthy boom and precedes a serious depression. The present situation is not characterized by the existence of huge inventories, high interest rates, over-extended credit positions, or great surpluses of housing and capital equipment. We have not reached the stage of full employment of our productive resources. On the contrary, from all these standpoints, conditions are favorable for a continued increase in the level of business activity. 115 2696 245 - 7 - This stands in contrast to the unhealthy excesses of 1929. It stands in even sharper contrast to the banking collapse, the bread lines, the bankruptcies, and the general demoralization of 1933. 1 - Despite the substantial increase in the public debt during the past four years, the credit of the Federal Government has remained absolutely unimpaired. Not once during even the darkest days of the depression did the Treasury experience the slightest difficulty in borrowing all the funds that were required. Moreover, the rates of interest on our borrowings have been lower, for comparable securities, than at any other time in the history of the country. 108 2588 246 - 8 - But the underlying conditions that made deliberate deficit spending the wisest kind of policy during the depression have been altered during the progress of recovery. Thus, when we borrowed during the depression to finance our deficit spending, a large part of the funds was obtained through an expansion of bank credit. To this extent, our spending did not absorb capital funds that might otherwise have gone into private industry, nor did it absorb by taxation, funds that might otherwise have gone into private consumption. Even to the extent that our bonds and notes were purchased by non-banking investors, the effect was largely to put to work capital funds that would otherwise have remained idle. 115 2473 247 - 9 - Our industrial recovery of the last year, however, has created large new demands for private capital. Our commercial banks have been again utilizing their credit resources for the financing of private industry. During the present calendar year, the insured commercial banks of the country have substantially reduced their holdings of Government securities in order to meet actual and prospective demands for commercial credit. The obligations that they sold, plus an amount equal to the securities newly marketed by the Treasury, were purchased by investors. Any deficit spending under conditions of active demand for private capital, would have to be financed in large part by capital funds that would otherwise be available for business purposes. 114 2359 248 - 10 - your The basic need today is to foster the full application of the driving force of private capital. We want to see capital go into the productive channels of private industry. We want to see private business expand. We believe that much of the remaining unemployment will disappear as private capital funds are increasingly employed in productive enterprises. We believe that one of the most important ways of achieving these ends at this time is to continue progress toward a balance of the Federal budget. I turn now to the immediate practical aspects of budget balancing for the coming fiscal year. What are the controlling figures? 105 2254 249 - 11 - Our total receipts for this year were estimated in the President's budget summation of October 19 at about six billion six hundred and fifty millions, and our total net expenditures at about seven billion (1/3) three hundred and forty-five millions, leaving an estimated net deficit of six hundred and ninety-five millions. To attain an ordinary balancing of the budget next year -- that is, a balance after full provision for accruing liabilities for old-age benefit payments, but exclusive of debt retirement -- it would be necessary to accomplish a net improvement of about seven hundred million dollars in our budgetary position, as last estimated. To be prudent, we 108 2146 250 - 12 - should not count on an increase in revenues next year from the existing tax structure. Nor should we impose additional taxation. Instead, we should plan to bring next year's expenditures within this year's income. But where can cuts totaling seven hundred millions be made? After a careful study of the whole problem, I have come to the following conclusions: On the one hand, while everything possible 1s being and will be done to keep a tight rein on the regular operating expenses of the Federal Government, including the national defense and interest on the public debt, I do not believe that we can find large savings in this field. Further, our expenditures under the Social Security 116 2030 n 251 - 13 - Act will increase next year. On the other hand, by focusing attention on the several classes of expenditures that have been mainly responsible for our past deficits -- namely, public highways, public works, unemployment relief, and agriculture -- it is apparent that great savings can be made. Let me give you an 1dea of the possibilities for savings in these fields. First, take the item of highway expenditures. Prior to the depression, the Federal grants to the States for public highway construction generally ran under one hundred million dollars annually. This year the total Federal outlays for highways, inclusive 97 1933 252 - 14 - of emergency expenditures, are estimated at two hundred fifty-three millions; and, in addition, the existing highway programs call for new appropriations totaling more than four hundred million dollars for the next two years. I believe it is now time to return to the average annual level of highway expenditures that existed prior to the depression, especially because during the past few years many other millions of dollars have been spent for highways out of relief appropriations. Second, there is the field of public works, other than highways, on which we are spending five hundred and seventy-three millions this year. This is a greater sum than the total that was spent for this purpose during the entire five-year period 121 1812 253 - 15 - between 1926 and 1930, inclusive. Next year, despite the fact that there will be available from appropriations and allocations already made for this purpose more than six hundred millions, I believe that we can and should move definitely toward a lower level of public works outlays. Third, I sincerely hope that employment conditions will make possible a further substantial reduction in our outlays for unemployment relief and the C.C.C. camps. During the present fiscal year, by reason of more active private business, these expenditures are already being reduced by more than seven hundred and fifty millions below last year's. 104 1708 254 - 16 - I turn next to our expenditures on behalf of agriculture. The total of this year's expenditures, exclusive of public highways, for the regular activities of the department, the soil conservation program, rural electrification, resettlement, commodity loans, and lower interest rates for Federal land bank borrowers, exceeds nine hundred million dollars. Despite the magnitude of this sum, you are all aware that possible further measures involving large additional expenditures are now being discussed. I am strongly in favor of a long-range program to maintain the independence and the purchasing power of the farmer. Such a program must take into 99 1609 255 - 17 - consideration the farmer's opportunities in the foreign markets as well as in those at home; and no agricultural program can long endure which makes excessive demands upon the Federal Treasury, or is unfair to consumers. The farmer himself does not want subsidies, but rather such fair prices and such balanced production of crops as will make / / / subsidies unnecessary for his decent economic status. Balancing the budget is as much in the interest of farmers as in the interest of other parts of our population; and it requires the cooperation of the farmer as well as of other sections of the public. 101 1508 256 - 18 - slow / Only with the solid backing of the public can we hope to achieve economies totaling seven hundred millions in the four fields that I have cited. Pause There may be some persons who would counsel a more drastic reduction of expenditures or a program of far heavier taxation in order to make certain a more substantial reduction in the public debt in the next fiscal year. There are serious objections to either of these courses. I have already indicated that I believe it undesirable to increase taxation. There are equally compelling reasons why we should not reduce expenditures too suddenly and too drastically. I strongly favor a vigorous program for the progressive 1397 257 - 19 - reduction of Federal expenditures to the minimum demanded by the Government's responsibilities. Obviously, however, one reaches a point in reducing Government expenditures at which no further reductions can be made, unless it is decided to cripple many essential governmental activities -- in other words, unless it is decided to make drastic changes in national policy. For example, it would mean consideration of such things as weakening our national defense, and slowing up or abandoning flood control, soil erosion prevention, and relief for the aged and the unemployed. Such a course, I believe, would not have the approval of either the American people or their elected representatives in Congress. 107 1290 258 - 20 - Moreover, it would clearly be disastrous to many of the needy unemployed, and disruptive to many sections of private industry, if we were to cut Government expenditures in the coming fiscal year by much more than the amount I have indicated. We are definitely in a transition period between unbalanced and balanced Federal budgets; but I firmly believe that there is just as much danger to our economy as a whole in moving too rapidly in this direction as there would be in not moving at all. Relatively few persons realize the striking fact that the net improvement this year in the budgetary position of the Federal Government as estimated will amount to more than two billion dollars. 118 1172 259 - 21 - In other words, the net deficit this year is estimated at less than seven hundred millions as compared with more than two billion seven hundred millions last year. This net improvement of more than two billion dollars in a single year provides the best answer to those who, in most cases ignorant of the true Tm 2 facts, have publicly despaired of our ability to 3 balance the Federal budget. True, much of this year's anticipated budgetary improvement comes from increased revenue, but we are supplementing this by also seeking reductions in expenditures. 90 1082 260 - 22 - In addition to these considerations, I should like to point out that, as a result of the Social Security Act and related State laws, it is estimated that the Federal Government next year will receive more than one billion dollars net for investment in Government securities for the Unemployment Trust Fund and the Old-Age Reserve Account. Although this investment will not change the total amount of the public debt, it will with a balanced budget result in the transfer to these reserve accounts of more than a billion dollars of Government obligations now held by private investors. Even during the decade of the Twenties, when the Treasury was receiving large payments of interest 114 968 261 - 23 - and principal on war debts, and from the sale of surplus war materials, the maximum reduction made in any single year in the public debt held by private investors was about one billion three hundred millions. The rate at which it is safe to reduce the public debt in private hands depends upon the rate at which private funds flow into investment channels. It is unsafe to go too fast. Pause Although we are not contemplating any increase in the total tax burden, the character of our tax structure is being given earnest consideration. The Federal tax system affects every one in the country. We in the Treasury in studying tax problems 111 857 262 - 24 - have two objectives always before us: First, that the tax burden shall be distributed as fairly as possible, and second, that the collection of taxes shall be as little burdensome to the taxpayer as possible. It 1s with these aims that, by direction of the President, we have been reviewing the whole tax structure in the last few months and are just now in the process of presenting to a committee of Congress the information we have collected. The study has not been directed toward raising additional revenue. Instead, we have sought to determine whether there are inequalities and injustices in the distribution of the tax burden and whether there 110 747 263 - 25 - are some taxes whose cost of collection and whose burdensome effect outweigh the revenue gain. In addition, we want to simplify collection and make the taxpayer's record-keeping less difficult. We realize that our tax laws are too complicated; we want to make them less SO. We realize that there are inequities; we want to eliminate as many of them as we can. In making this study, we have invited the assistance and the advice of groups of taxpayers and of individuals. We want to hear the taxpayer's side of the story. We want all the facts we can get and we have obtained both facts and opinions. 108 639 264 - 26 - Our tax revenues come largely from individual earnings and business profits. We do not wish to impose levies which tend to dry up the sources of tax revenue. The laws should be so written and administered that the taxpayer can continue to make a reasonable profit with a minimum of interference from his own Federal Government; provided that the taxpayer cooperates with his Government in carrying out the purpose and the spirit of the tax laws. of course, tax policy cannot properly be determined from exceptional cases. We must look at the whole picture. We base our decisions on extensive information and upon analysis of actual tax records. 108 531 265 - 27 - The amount of our income-tax revenue is only about half our total internal revenue. Less than three million people out of our total population pay individual Federal income taxes. We would be applying the principle of capacity to pay more justly if we were to reduce the number of consumer taxes and at the same time to increase the number of income tax payers. Taxpayers who are squarely confronted with their own tax burdens are bound to be keenly alive to the way the money 1s being spent by their Government. 42 439 266 - 28 - The budget now nearing completion is predicated on a definite estimate of receipts, based on the existing tax structure. It 1s a cardinal point of our policy that the tax system, as revised, must not yield a smaller return for 1939 than the present system would yield. Pause Let me repeat: We want to adjust inequalities and remedy defects in the tax laws. In doing this, we have sought the help of the taxpayer and have given him a sympathetic hearing. If we find that the operation of any particular tax 1s unfair, we stand ready to say so publicly. 101 338 267 - 29 - Pause My object this evening has been to present, as clearly and as frankly as I know how, a comprehensive picture of the Federal expenditures and the budgetary outlook. I have tried to make plain the underlying economic reasons, as well as the humanitarian ones, for the past deficits; and I have tried to bring out clearly the considerations that now demand further definite steps toward a balanced Federal budget. I have shown why, in my opinion, this balance should be sought by a reduction in expenditures without an increase in the total of the tax burden. But I have also shown that there is a limit to reductions; and that balancing of budgets needs the help of industry to keep up total tax receipts unless we are again to resort to deficit financing. 133 205 Regraded Unclassified 268 -30- - The principal aims of our budgetary policy have been, and I hope will continue to be, to promote a high level and healthy character of business activity, a maximum volume of employment at good wages in private industry, a reasonable return to capital and enterprise, fair treatment for our agricultural population, and adequate revenues to meet the services now demanded of the Federal Government. The attainment of these ends rests very greatly on private initiative and on the cooperation of private enterprise. This is a necessary supplement to any efforts which the Government can put forth. This Administration is going to do everything 103 102 269 -31 - possible to promote a continuation of recovery and to balance the budget through cutting expenditures. But I wish to emphasize that in no event will this Administration allow anyone to starve, nor will it abandon its broad purpose to protect the weak, to give human security and to seek a wider distribution of our national income. We are confident that, with the full cooperation of the business world, our present difficulties will be overcome; and that the aims that I have set forth above, which are properly those of private business as well as those of the National Government, will be achieved. o0o 102 270 CAUTION - FUTURE RELEASE. The following address by Secretary Morgenthau is for release upon delivery, which is expected to begin at 9:30 P.M., Eastern Standard Time, Wednesday evening, November 10, 1937. It must be treated as COMPLETELY CONFIDENTIAL until it has been delivered. Address of the Secretary of the Treasury, to be delivered before the Academy of Political Science, at the Hotel Astor, New York City, Wednesday evening, November 10, 1937. I welcome the opportunity to discuss before the members and guests of the Academy of Political Science the subject of Federal spending and its relation to the balancing of the Federal budget. Nineteen years ago tomorrow, we signed the Armistice ending the World War. That war was encrnously costly in human values, and it was enornously costly in material values. In the two years between the middle of 1917 and the niddle of 1919, the Federal Government sustained a net deficit of twenty-two billion dollars. During the past four years, this country has been engaged in another war. This tine our enemy was a great economic disaster. In this war, we fought with jobs and with dollars to save farmers from losing their farms: to save home owners from losing their homes; to give not only bread but work to the unemployed; to increase the security of jobs, property values, and business profits; and to bring order cut of chaos in our economic system. This war, like that other war, required a nany-sided campaign under intelligent and courageous leadership - a leadership that was magnificantly supplied by President Roosevelt. Finally, this war, like that other war, required a large spending program. This program, plus the special needs arising out of the great - 2 - 271 drought and the prepayment of the soldiers' bonus, necessitated net out- lays during the four years ended June 30, 1937, of some fourteen billion dollars in excess of our receipts. Of course, it is easily possible to criticize some of the detailed uses of the relief funds. Let us concede that there was some waste. In any expenditure program of such nagnitude this is inevitable. But, con- trasted with the human and material values at stake, such wastes as DAJ have occurred shrink into insignificance. We deliberately used an unbalanced Federal budget during the past four years to meet a great emergency. That policy has succeeded. The emergency that we faced in 1933 no longer exists. I an fully aware that many of our problems remain unsolved. I an aware that there still remains a considerable volume of unemployment; that the speculative markets have recently been under severe pressure: and that our business indexes have recently shown a declining tendency. I am further aware that some persons contend that another great spending program is desirable to ward off the risk of another business depression. I claim no prophetic insight into the future. But, after giving serious and careful consideration to all of these and other factors, I have reached the firm conviction that the donestic problems which face us today are essentially different from those which faced us foom years ago. Many beasures are required for their solution. One of these measures, but only one, in the present juncture is a determined movement toward a balanced budget. Early in 1933, after three years of progressive deterioration, our whole economic mechanism was demoralized. Under these conditions, there 272 - 3 - was no agency outside of the Federal Government with the resources and the courage to bring about a business revival. Today the situation is greatly changed. We are now nearing the end of one of the most active years in the business history of this country. On the whole, this high level of activity has been of a healthy character. - not of the character that usually marks an unhealthy boom and precedes a serious depression. The present situation is not characterized by the existence of huge inventories, high interest rates, over-extended credit positions, or great surpluses of housing and capital equipment. We have not reached the stage of full employment of our productive resources. Cn the contrary, from all these standpoints, conditions are favorable for & continued increase in the lovel of business activity. This stands in contrast to the unhealthy excesses of 1929. It stands in even sharper contraxt to the banking collapse, the bread lines, the bankruptcies, and the general demoralization of 1933. Despite the substantial increase in the public debt during the past four years, the credit of the Federal Government has remained absolutely unimpaired. Not once during even the darkest days of the depression did the Treasury experience the slightest difficulty in borrowing all the funds that were required. Moreover, the rates of interest on our borrowings have been lower, for comparable securities, than at any other time in the history of the country. But the underlying conditions that made deliberate deficit spending the wisest kind of policy during the depression have been altered during the progress of recovery. Thus, when we borrowed during the depression 273 - 4 to finance our deficit spending, a large part of the funds was obtained through an expansion of bank credit. To this extent, our spending did not absorb capital funds that might otherwise have gone into privato in- dustry, not did it absorb by taxation funds that might otherwise have gone into private consumption. Even to the extent that our bonds and notes were purchased by non-banking investors, the effect was largely to put to work capital funds that would otherwise have remained idle, Our industrial recovery of the last year, however, has created large new domands for private capital. Our commercial banks have been again utilizing their credit resources for the financing of private industry. During the present calendar year, the insured commercial banks of the country have substantially reduced their holdings of Government securities in order to moot actual and prospective demands for commercial credit. The obligations that they sold, plus an amount equal to the securities nowly markoted by the Treasury, were purchased by investors. Any doficit spending under conditions of active domand for private capital would have to be financed in large part by capital funds that would otherwise be available for business purposes. The basic need today is to foster the full application of the driving force of private capital. We want to see capital go into the productive channels of private industry. Wo want to seo private business expand. We believe that much of the remaining unemployment will disappear AS private capital funds are increasingly employed in productive enterprises. To believe that one of the most important ways of achieving these onds at this timo is to continue progress toward a balance of the Federal budget. Regraded Unclassified 274 - 5 - I turn now to the immediate practical aspects of budget balancing for the coming fiscal year. That are the controlling figures? Our total receipts for this year were estimated in the President's budget summation of October 19 at about six billion six hundred and fifty millions, and our total net expenditures at about seven billion three hundred and forty-five millions, leaving an ostimated net deficit of six hundred and ninety-five millions. To attain an ordinary balancing of the budget next year - that is, a balance after full provision for accruing liabilities for old-age benefit payments, but exclusive of debt retirement -, it would be necessary to accomplish a not improvement of about seven hundred million dollars in our budgetary position, as last estimated. To be prudent, we should net count on an increase in revenues next year from the existing tax structure. Nor should we impose additional taxation. Instead, we should plan to bring next year's expenditures within this year's income. But where can cute totaling seven hundred millions be nade? After a careful study of the whole problem, I have cone to the following conclusions: On the one hand, while everything possible is being and will be done to keep B. tight rein on the regular operating expenses of the Federal Govern- ment, including the national defense and interest on the public debt, I do not believe that we can find largo savings in this field. Further, our expenditures under the Social Security Act will increase next year. On the other hand, by focusing attention on the several classes of expenditures that have been nainly responsible for our past deficits - namely public highways, public works, unemployment relief, and agriculture - 275 - 6 - it is apparent that great savings can be made. Let me give you an idea of the possibilities for savings in these fields. First, take the item of highway expenditures. Prior to the depression, the Federal grants to the States for public highway construction generally ran under one hundred million dollars annually. This year the total Federal outlays for highways, inclusive of emergency expenditures, are estimated at two hundred fifty-three millions; and, in addition, the existing high- way programs call for new appropriations totaling more than four hundred million dollars for the noxt two years. I believe it is now time to roturn to the average annual level of highway expenditures that existed prior to the depression, especially because during the past few years many other millions of dollars have been spent for highways out of relief appropriations, Second, there is the field of public works, other than highways, on which we are spending five hundred and seventy-three millions this year. This 1s a greater sum than the total that was spent for this purpose during the entire five-year period between 1926 and 1930, inclusive. Next year, despite the fact that there will be available from appropriations and allo- cations already made for this purpose more than six hundred millions, I believe that we can and should move definitely toward a lower lovel of public works outlays. Third, I sincerely hope that employment conditions will make possible a further substantial reduction in our outlays for unemployment rolief and the 0.0.0. camps. During the present fiscal year, by reason of more active private business, these expenditures are already being reduced by more than Regraded Unclassified 276 - 7 - seven hundred and fifty millions below last year's. I turn next to our expenditures on behalf of agriculture. The total of this year's expenditures, exclusive of public highways, for the regular activities of the department, the soil consorvation program, rural olec- trification, resettlement, commodity loans, and lower interest rates for Federal land bank borrowers, exceeds nine hundred million dollars. Despite the magnitude of this sum, you are all aware that possible further measures involving large additional expenditures are now being discussed. I am strengly in favor of a long-range program to maintain the inde- pendence and the purchasing power of the farmer. Such a program must take into consideration the farmer's opportunities in the foreign markets as well as in those at home; and no agricultural program can long endure which makes excessive demands upon the Federal Treasury, or is unfair to con- sumers. The farmer himself does not want subsidies, hut rather such fair prices and such balanced production of crops as will nake subsidies un- necessary for his docent oconomic status. Balancing the budget is as much in the interest of farmers as in the interest of other parts of our population; and it requires the cooperation of the farmer as well as of other sections of the public. Only with the solid backing of the public can we hope to achieve economies totaling seven hundred millions in the four fields that I have cited. There may be some persons who would counsel A more drastic reduction of expenditures or a program of far heavier taxation in order to make 277 - 8 - certain a more substantial reduction in the public dobt in the next fiscal year. There are serious objections to either of these courses. I have already indicated that I believe it undesirable to increase taxation. There are equally compelling reasons why we should not reduce expenditures too suddenly and too drastically. I strongly favor n vigorous program for the progressive reduction of Federal expenditures to the minimum demanded by the Government's responsibilities. Obviously, however, one reaches a point in reducing Government ex- penditures at which no further reductions can be made, unless it is decided to cripple many essential governmental activities - in other words, unless it is decided to make drastic changes in national policy. For example, it would mean consideration of such things as weakening our national defense, and slowing up or abandoning flood control, soil erosion provention, and relief for the aged and the unemployed. Such a course, I believe, would not have the approval of either the American people or their elected representatives in Congress. Moreover, it would clearly be disastrous to nany of the needy unen- ployed, and disruptive to many soctions of private industry, if ve wore to cut Government expenditures in the coming fiscal year by much more than the amount I have indicated. We are definitely in a transition period between unbalanced and balanced Federal budgets; but I firnly believe that there is just as much danger to our economy as & whole in noying too rapidly in this direc- tion as there would be in not noving at all. 278 - 9 - Relatively few persons realize the striking fact that the net improvement this year in the budgetary position of the Federal Covernment as estimated will anount to more than two billion dollars. In other words, the net deficit this year is estimated at less than seven hundred millions as compared with more than two billion seven hundred millions last year. This net improvenent of more than two billion dollars in a single year provides the best answer to those who, in most cases ignorant of the true facts, have publicly despaired of our ability to balance the Federal budgot. True, much of this year's anticipated budgetary improvement comes from increased revenue, but we are supplementing this by also seeking reductions in expenditures. In addition to these considerations, I should like to point out that, as a result of the Social Security Act and related State laws, it is 00- timated that the Federal Government next year will receive more than one billion dollars net for investment in Government securities for the Unemployment Trust Fund and the 01d-Age Reserve Account. Although this investment will not change the total anount of the public debt, it will with a balanced budget result in the transfer to these reserve accounts of more than a billion dollars of Government obligations now held by private investors. Even during the decade of the Twenties, when the Treasury was re- ceiving large payments of interest and principal on war debts, and from the sale of surplus war materials, the naximum reduction pade in any single year in the public debt held by private invostors was about one 278 - 10 - billion three hundred millions. The rate at which it is safe to reduce the public debt in private hands depends upon the rate at which private funds flow into investment channels. It is unsafe to gc too fast. Although we are not contemplating any increase in the total tax burden, the character of our tax structure is being given earnost consideration. The Federal tax system affects everyone in the country. We in the Treasury in studying tax problems have two objectives always before us: First, that the tax burden shall be distributed as fairly as possible, and second, that the collection of taxes shall be as little burdensomo to the taxpayer as possible. It is with these ains that, by direction of the President, we have been reviewing the whole tax structure in the last few months and are just now in the process of presenting to a committee of Congress the information we have collected. The study has not been directed toward raising additional revenue. Instead, we have sought to determine whother there are inequalities and injustices in the distribution of the tax burden and whether there are some taxes whose cost of collection and whose burden- some effect outweigh the revenue gain. In addition, we want to simplify collection and nake the taxpayer's record-keeping less difficult. We realize that our tax laws are too complicated; we want to nake them less 50. We realize that there are inequities: we want to eliminate as nany of them as we can. 280 11 I I In making this study, We have invited the assistance and the advice of groups of taxpayers and of individuals. We want to hear the taxpayer's side of the story. We want all the facts we can get and we have obtained both facts and opinions. Our tar revenues come largely from individual earnings and business profits. We do not wish to impose levies which tend to dry up the sources of tax revenue. The laws should be so written and administered that the taxpayer can continue to make a reasonable profit with a minimum of inter- ference from his own Federal Government; provided that the taxpayer co- operates with his Government in carrying out the purpose and the spirit of the tax laws. Of course, tax policy cannot properly be determined from exceptional cases. We must look at the whole picture. We base our decisions on extensive information and upon analysis of actual tax records. The amount of our income-tax revenue is only about half our total internal revenue. Less than three million people out of our total popula- tion pay individual Federal incomo taxes. We would be applying the prin- ciple of capacity to pay more justly if we were to reduce the mumber of consumer taxes and at the same time to increase the number of income tax payers. Taxpayers who are squarely confronted with their own tax burdens are bound to be keenly alive to the way the money is being spent by their Government. The budget now nearing completion is predicated on a definite estimate of receipts, based on the existing tax structure. It is a cardinal point of our policy that the tax system, as revised, must not yield a scaller return for 1939 than the present system would yield. 281 - 12 - Let ne repeat: We want tc adjust inequalities and renody defects in the tax laws. In doing this, we have scught the help of the taxpayer and have given hin a sympathetic hearing. If we find that the operation of any particular tax is unfair, we stand ready tc say BC publicly. My object this evening has been to present, as clearly and as frankly as I know how, a conprehensive picture of the Federal expenditures and the budgetary cutlock. I have triod to nake plain the underlying economic reasons, as well as the humanitarian cnos, for the pnst deficits; and I have tried to bring cut clearly the considerations that now deriand further definito stops toward a balanced Federal budget. I have shown why, in iV opinion, this balance should be sought by a reduction in expendituros with- cut an incroase in the trtal (f the tax burden. But I have also shown that there is n limit to reductions; and that balancing of budgets noeds the help of industry to keep up total tax receipts unloss we are again to rescrt tc deficit financing. The principal nins of our budgetary policy have boon, and I hope will continuo to be, to prencto a high level and healthy character of business activity, a naximun volune of employment nt need wages in private industry, & reasonable return to capital and enterprise, fair treatment for our acricultural population, and adequate revenues to neet the services new donanded of the Federal Government. 28 - 13 - The attainment of these ends rests very greatly en private initiative and on the cooperation of private enterprise. This is a necessary supple- ment to any efforts which the Government can put forth. This Administration is going to dc everything possible tc promote a continuation of recevery and to balance the budget through cutting expenditures. But I wish to emphasize that in nc event will this Administration allow anyone tc starve, nor will it abandon its broad purpose to protect the weak, to give hunan security and to seek a wider distribution of cur national income. To are confident that, with the full cooperation of the business world, our present difficulties will be overcone; and that the aims that I have set forth above, which are properly those of priyate business as well as those of the National Government, will be achieved. --c00- Regraded Unclassified